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000
FXUS61 KOKX 241434
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1034 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS
FORECAST TO RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
SUNNY AND WINDY...BUT SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE MAX
WIND SPEED IN MIXED LAYER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY REMAINS BELOW
40KT. PERHAPS A FEW SPOTS COULD REACH CRITERIA WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OF A WIDESPREAD EVENT TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY
AT ANY PARTICULAR AREA.

850MB TEMPS DURING MAX HEATING ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 0C.
CONSIDERING FULL SUN AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S FOR
MOST SPOTS...SO THEREFORE WENT WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE.
VERY DRY AIR WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT...SO SIDED WITH THE
LOWER NAM GUIDANCE FOR SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE COMBINED WINDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL HAVE FIRE WEATHER IMPLICATIONS. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND REACHES US LATE
AT NIGHT. WINDS THEREFORE SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEAR MOST OF
THE NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES. THE GROWING SEASON
WILL BE STARTING TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BELOW FREEZING FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS AREA. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST LATE AT NIGHT...
PREVENTING OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH
FOR THESE ZONES FOR NOW...INCLUDING ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN
WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...AND HAVE THE DAY SHIFT GET A LOOK AT THE 12Z
MODEL SUITE TO FINE TUNE THE HEADLINES.

CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN DURING FRIDAY...BUT
MORE NOTICEABLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
DEPTH FOR ANY SHOWERS HOLDS OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING THROUGH THE
AREA...SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT THE MIXING DEPTH...AND COASTAL SPOTS
WILL LIKELY BE COOLED WITH A SEA BREEZE. STILL...HIGH TEMPS AT OR
ABOVE TODAY`S FOR SPOTS AWAY FROM THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...AS WELL AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA MAY SET OFF
SOME ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED PERIOD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH...AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...THEN TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTN WITH DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS WITH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT TODAY. WINDS SHOULD BE
JUST  RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC. GUSTS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS VEER TO THE SE FRI MRNG WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY BLW 10 KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS UP FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE NEAR-SHORE IN NATURE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A DEVELOPING INVERSION OVER THE WATERS COULD LIMIT
GUST POTENTIAL FARTHER OFFSHORE.

SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF TONIGHT FOR ALL
WATERS...THEN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ENTERS THE REGION. TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH WINDS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT STILL UNDER 15 KT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. THEN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE...LITTLE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND DRY FORECAST 1
AND 10 HOUR FUELS...WILL EXPAND THE RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-
     006-103>108.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...MMD/BG/BC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DW/JMC
MARINE...MMD/BG/BC/JC
FIRE WEATHER...MMD/BG/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC









000
FXUS61 KOKX 241139
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
739 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS
FORECAST TO RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
SUNNY AND WINDY...BUT SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE MAX
WIND SPEED IN MIXED LAYER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY REMAINS BELOW
40KT. PERHAPS A FEW SPOTS COULD REACH CRITERIA WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OF A WIDESPREAD EVENT TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY
AT ANY PARTICULAR AREA.

850MB TEMPS DURING MAX HEATING ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 0C.
CONSIDERING FULL SUN AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S FOR
MOST SPOTS...SO THEREFORE WENT WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE.
VERY DRY AIR WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT...SO SIDED WITH THE
LOWER NAM GUIDANCE FOR SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE COMBINED WINDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL HAVE FIRE WEATHER IMPLICATIONS. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND REACHES US LATE
AT NIGHT. WINDS THEREFORE SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEAR MOST OF
THE NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES. THE GROWING SEASON
WILL BE STARTING TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BELOW FREEZING FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS AREA. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST LATE AT NIGHT...
PREVENTING OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH
FOR THESE ZONES FOR NOW...INCLUDING ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN
WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...AND HAVE THE DAY SHIFT GET A LOOK AT THE 12Z
MODEL SUITE TO FINE TUNE THE HEADLINES.

CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN DURING FRIDAY...BUT
MORE NOTICEABLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
DEPTH FOR ANY SHOWERS HOLDS OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING THROUGH THE
AREA...SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT THE MIXING DEPTH...AND COASTAL SPOTS
WILL LIKELY BE COOLED WITH A SEA BREEZE. STILL...HIGH TEMPS AT OR
ABOVE TODAY`S FOR SPOTS AWAY FROM THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...AS WELL AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA MAY SET OFF
SOME ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED PERIOD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH...AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...THEN TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFT WITH DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

NW WINDS RAMP UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT.
WINDS SHOULD BE JUST RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC. GUSTS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS UP FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SCA
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS...THEN
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ENTERS THE REGION. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH
LATE IN THE DAY...BUT STILL UNDER 15 KT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. THEN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE...LITTLE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND DRY FORECAST 1
AND 10 HOUR FUELS...WILL EXPAND THE RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-
     006-103>108.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...BC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/JC
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC










000
FXUS61 KOKX 240844
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
444 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS
FORECAST TO RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. SUNNY AND
WINDY...BUT SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE MAX WIND SPEED
IN MIXED LAYER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY REMAINS BELOW 40KT. PERHAPS A
FEW SPOTS COULD REACH CRITERIA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF THIS
OCCURRING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE OF A WIDESPREAD EVENT TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY AT ANY
PARTICULAR AREA.

850MB TEMPS DURING MAX HEATING ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 0C.
CONSIDERING FULL SUN AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S FOR
MOST SPOTS...SO THEREFORE WENT WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE.
VERY DRY AIR WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT...SO SIDED WITH THE
LOWER NAM GUIDANCE FOR SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE COMBINED WINDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL HAVE FIRE WEATHER IMPLICATIONS. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND REACHES US LATE
AT NIGHT. WINDS THEREFORE SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEAR MOST OF
THE NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES. THE GROWING SEASON
WILL BE STARTING TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BELOW FREEZING FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS AREA. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST LATE AT NIGHT...
PREVENTING OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH
FOR THESE ZONES FOR NOW...INCLUDING ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN
WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...AND HAVE THE DAY SHIFT GET A LOOK AT THE 12Z
MODEL SUITE TO FINE TUNE THE HEADLINES.

CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN DURING FRIDAY...BUT
MORE NOTICEABLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
DEPTH FOR ANY SHOWERS HOLDS OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING THROUGH THE
AREA...SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT THE MIXING DEPTH...AND COASTAL SPOTS
WILL LIKELY BE COOLED WITH A SEA BREEZE. STILL...HIGH TEMPS AT OR
ABOVE TODAY`S FOR SPOTS AWAY FROM THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...AS WELL AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA MAY SET OFF
SOME ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED PERIOD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH...AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...THEN TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFT WITH DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 KT BEFORE DAYBREAK WILL RAMP BACK UP
AFTER 12Z WITH SIMILAR GUSTS TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON WED...UP
TO ABOUT 40 KT. WINDS SHOULD BE JUST RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC. GUSTS
WILL BE LOST DURING THE EVENING HOURS THU.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.
.MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS UP FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SCA
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS...THEN
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ENTERS THE REGION. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH
LATE IN THE DAY...BUT STILL UNDER 15 KT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. THEN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE...LITTLE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND DRY FORECAST 1
AND 10 HOUR FUELS...WILL EXPAND THE RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/JC
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC








000
FXUS61 KOKX 240731
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
331 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS
FORECAST TO RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. SUNNY AND
WINDY...BUT SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE MAX WIND SPEED
IN MIXED LAYER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY REMAINS BELOW 40KT. PERHAPS A
FEW SPOTS COULD REACH CRITERIA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF THIS
OCCURRING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE OF A WIDESPREAD EVENT TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY AT ANY
PARTICULAR AREA.

850MB TEMPS DURING MAX HEATING ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 0C.
CONSIDERING FULL SUN AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S FOR
MOST SPOTS...SO THEREFORE WENT WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE.
VERY DRY AIR WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT...SO SIDED WITH THE
LOWER NAM GUIDANCE FOR SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE COMBINED WINDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL HAVE FIRE WEATHER IMPLICATIONS. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND REACHES US LATE
AT NIGHT. WINDS THEREFORE SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEAR MOST OF
THE NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES. THE GROWING SEASON
WILL BE STARTING TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BELOW FREEZING FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS AREA. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST LATE AT NIGHT...
PREVENTING OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH
FOR THESE ZONES FOR NOW...INCLUDING ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN
WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...AND HAVE THE DAY SHIFT GET A LOOK AT THE 12Z
MODEL SUITE TO FINE TUNE THE HEADLINES.

CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN DURING FRIDAY...BUT
MORE NOTICEABLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
DEPTH FOR ANY SHOWERS HOLDS OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING THROUGH THE
AREA...SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT THE MIXING DEPTH...AND COASTAL SPOTS
WILL LIKELY BE COOLED WITH A SEA BREEZE. STILL...HIGH TEMPS AT OR
ABOVE TODAY`S FOR SPOTS AWAY FROM THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...AS WELL AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA MAY SET OFF
SOME ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED PERIOD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH...AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...THEN TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFT WITH DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

GUSTS WILL VARY OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT....BUT THEN RAMP
BACK TO AROUND 35 KT AFTER 12Z. WINDS SHOULD BE JUST RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC. GUSTS WILL BE LOST DURING THE EVENING HOURS THU.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.
.MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS UP FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SCA
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS...THEN
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ENTERS THE REGION. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH
LATE IN THE DAY...BUT STILL UNDER 15 KT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. THEN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE...LITTLE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND DRY FORECAST 1
AND 10 HOUR FUELS...WILL EXPAND THE RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/JC
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC








000
FXUS61 KOKX 240610
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
210 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SUNNY/WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SUN/MON...BEFORE UNSETTLED AND
COOL WEATHER MAY RETURN TUE INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON OBS AND TRENDS.

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH...AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE
OVERNIGHT...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN WELL MIXED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...AND
COOLER AIR ALOFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT...BUT THEY WILL
REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT. GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF GUSTY WINDS...DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT MUCH...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS A
BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS. MAINLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY...A SUNNY...WINDY AND MILD DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE
REGION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW LOCATIONS TOUCH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST BELOW. NONETHELESS...LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY. A SUPER ADIABATIC
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER GIVEN THE STRONG
WINDS.

DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS
WILL BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...EXCEPT MILDER IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS AROUND NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FRIDAY...BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S ON THE ISLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE. DECENT SHOT
AT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN HEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IT MAY
TRIGGER SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTH.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BUT PATTERN MAY TURN
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND SHOWERY AT TIMES. THIS A RESULT OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. ITS CERTAINLY
NOT A LOCK THOUGH AS THIS IS 6 TO 7 DAYS IN THE FUTURE...BUT A
PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COOL/WET WEATHER MAY OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFT WITH DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

GUSTS WILL VARY OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT....BUT THEN RAMP
BACK TO AROUND 35 KT AFTER 12Z. WINDS SHOULD BE JUST RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC. GUSTS WILL BE LOST DURING THE EVENING HOURS THU.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.
.MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT.

EARLIER COORDINATION WITH FIRE WEATHER CONTACTS RESULTED IN RED
FLAG WARNING/S ON THURSDAY FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK AND ALL OF LONG ISLAND. ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT HELD
ONTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHERE THERE WAS SOME RAIN EARLIER TODAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...ITS
POSSIBLE THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING GIVEN THE
STRONG WINDS/LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED. PLENTY OF TIME
THOUGH FOR THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO REVIEW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KOKX 240431
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1231 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SUNNY/WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SUN/MON...BEFORE UNSETTLED AND
COOL WEATHER MAY RETURN TUE INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON OBS AND TRENDS.

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH...AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE
OVERNIGHT...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN WELL MIXED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...AND
COOLER AIR ALOFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT...BUT THEY WILL
REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT. GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF GUSTY WINDS...DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT MUCH...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS A
BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS. MAINLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY...A SUNNY...WINDY AND MILD DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE
REGION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW LOCATIONS TOUCH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST BELOW. NONETHELESS...LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY. A SUPER ADIABATIC
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER GIVEN THE STRONG
WINDS.

DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS
WILL BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...EXCEPT MILDER IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS AROUND NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FRIDAY...BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S ON THE ISLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE. DECENT SHOT
AT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN HEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IT MAY
TRIGGER SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTH.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BUT PATTERN MAY TURN
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND SHOWERY AT TIMES. THIS A RESULT OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. ITS CERTAINLY
NOT A LOCK THOUGH AS THIS IS 6 TO 7 DAYS IN THE FUTURE...BUT A
PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COOL/WET WEATHER MAY OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

NORTHWEST GUSTS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO 25
TO 30 KT. GUSTS INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...35 TO 38
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AROUND 40 KT.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...NW GUSTS ENDING DURING THE EVENING.
.FRI...VFR. CHC NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.
.MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT.

EARLIER COORDINATION WITH FIRE WEATHER CONTACTS RESULTED IN RED
FLAG WARNING/S ON THURSDAY FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK AND ALL OF LONG ISLAND. ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT HELD
ONTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHERE THERE WAS SOME RAIN EARLIER TODAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...ITS
POSSIBLE THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING GIVEN THE
STRONG WINDS/LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED. PLENTY OF TIME
THOUGH FOR THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO REVIEW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KOKX 240200
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1000 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SUNNY/WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.  LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SUN/MON...BEFORE UNSETTLED AND
COOL WEATHER MAY RETURN TUE INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH...AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE
OVERNIGHT...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN WELL MIXED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...AND
COOLER AIR ALOFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT...BUT THEY WILL
REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT. GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF GUSTY WINDS...DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT MUCH...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS A
BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS. MAINLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THURSDAY...A SUNNY...WINDY AND MILD DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE
REGION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW LOCATIONS TOUCH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST BELOW. NONETHELESS...LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY. A SUPER ADIABATIC
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER GIVEN THE STRONG
WINDS.

DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS
WILL BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...EXCEPT MILDER IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS AROUND NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FRIDAY...BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S ON THE ISLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE. DECENT SHOT
AT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN HEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IT MAY
TRIGGER SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTH.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BUT PATTERN MAY TURN
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND SHOWERY AT TIMES. THIS A RESULT OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. ITS CERTAINLY
NOT A LOCK THOUGH AS THIS IS 6 TO 7 DAYS IN THE FUTURE...BUT A
PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COOL/WET WEATHER MAY OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

NORTHWEST GUSTS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO 25
TO 30 KT. GUSTS INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...35 TO 38
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AROUND 40 KT.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...NW GUSTS ENDING DURING THE EVENING.
.FRI...VFR. CHC NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.
.MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT.

EARLIER COORDINATION WITH FIRE WEATHER CONTACTS RESULTED IN RED
FLAG WARNING/S ON THURSDAY FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK AND ALL OF LONG ISLAND. ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT HELD
ONTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHERE THERE WAS SOME RAIN EARLIER TODAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...ITS
POSSIBLE THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING GIVEN THE
STRONG WINDS/LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED. PLENTY OF TIME
THOUGH FOR THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO REVIEW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ002>004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 232346
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
746 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SUNNY/WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.  LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SUN/MON...BEFORE UNSETTLED AND
COOL WEATHER MAY RETURN TUE INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH...AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE
OVERNIGHT...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN WELL MIXED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...AND
COOLER AIR ALOFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT...BUT THEY WILL
REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT. GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF GUSTY WINDS...DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT MUCH...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS A
BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS. MAINLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THURSDAY...A SUNNY...WINDY AND MILD DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE
REGION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW LOCATIONS TOUCH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST BELOW. NONETHELESS...LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY. A SUPER ADIABATIC
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER GIVEN THE STRONG
WINDS.

DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS
WILL BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...EXCEPT MILDER IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS AROUND NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FRIDAY...BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S ON THE ISLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE. DECENT SHOT
AT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN HEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IT MAY
TRIGGER SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTH.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BUT PATTERN MAY TURN
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND SHOWERY AT TIMES. THIS A RESULT OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. ITS CERTAINLY
NOT A LOCK THOUGH AS THIS IS 6 TO 7 DAYS IN THE FUTURE...BUT A
PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COOL/WET WEATHER MAY OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

NORTHWEST GUSTS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO 25
TO 30 KT. GUSTS INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...35 TO 38
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AROUND 40 KT.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 310 TRUE THURSDAY. GUSTS
INCREASE AND AT TIMES MAY APPROACH 40 KT.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 310 TRUE THURSDAY. GUSTS
INCREASE AND AT TIMES MAY APPROACH 40 KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 310 TRUE THURSDAY. GUSTS
INCREASE AND AT TIMES MAY APPROACH 40 KT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 310 TRUE THURSDAY. GUSTS
INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 310 TRUE THURSDAY. GUSTS
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 310 TRUE THURSDAY. GUSTS
INCREASE AND AT TIMES MAY APPROACH 40 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...NW GUSTS ENDING DURING THE EVENING.
.FRI...VFR. CHC NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.
.MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT.

EARLIER COORDINATION WITH FIRE WEATHER CONTACTS RESULTED IN RED
FLAG WARNING/S ON THURSDAY FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK AND ALL OF LONG ISLAND. ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT HELD
ONTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHERE THERE WAS SOME RAIN EARLIER TODAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...ITS
POSSIBLE THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING GIVEN THE
STRONG WINDS/LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED. PLENTY OF TIME
THOUGH FOR THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO REVIEW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ002>004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...PW
HYDROLOGY...









000
FXUS61 KOKX 232139
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
539 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SUNNY/WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.  LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SUN/MON...BEFORE UNSETTLED AND
COOL WEATHER MAY RETURN TUE INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN COVERED THE TRI-STATE REGION AS OF
LATE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THAT MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
THIS EVENING. WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT...THEY WILL REMAIN
GUSTY OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCALES IN THE
COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. GIVEN THE WINDS STAYING UP
OVERNIGHT...WENT WITH LOW TEMPS A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS
MAINLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...

A SUNNY...WINDY AND MILD DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 40 MPH. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW LOCATIONS
TOUCH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN JUST BELOW. NONETHELESS...LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY. A SUPER ADIABATIC ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS TO REACH IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT
IT WILL FEEL COOLER GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...EXCEPT MILDER IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS
AROUND NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY...BUT MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S ON THE ISLAND AND LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE.  DECENT SHOT AT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN HEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IT MAY TRIGGER SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDER.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

LOW CONFIDENCE BUT PATTERN MAY TURN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND SHOWERY
AT TIMES. THIS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. ITS CERTAINLY NOT A LOCK THOUGH AS THIS IS
6 TO 7 DAYS IN THE FUTURE...BUT A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COOL/WET
WEATHER MAY OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS DIMINISH A BIT TONIGHT...GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS...BUT WILL
REMAIN GUSTY. NORTHWEST WINDS PICK BACK UP AT 30 TO 40 KNOTS BY MID
TO LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS RIGHT AROUND 310 TRUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS RIGHT AROUND 310 TRUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MOSTLY TO THE RIGHT OF 310 TRUE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MOSTLY TO THE RIGHT OF 310 TRUE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS RIGHT AROUND 310 TRUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MOSTLY TO THE RIGHT OF 310 TRUE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU...GUSTY NW WIND AROUND 30KT. GUSTS ENDING DURING EARLY EVENING.
.FRI...VFR. CHC NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.
.MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT.

AFTER COORDINATING WITH FIRE WEATHER CONTACTS HAVE UPGRADED TO RED
FLAG WARNING/S ON THURSDAY FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK AND ALL OF LONG ISLAND. ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT HELD
ONTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHERE THERE WAS SOME RAIN TODAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...ITS
POSSIBLE THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING GIVEN THE
STRONG WINDS/LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED. PLENTY OF TIME
THOUGH FOR THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO REVIEW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ002>004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KOKX 232036
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
436 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SUNNY/WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.  LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SUN/MON...BEFORE UNSETTLED AND
COOL WEATHER MAY RETURN TUE INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN COVERED THE TRI-STATE REGION AS OF
LATE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THAT MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
THIS EVENING. WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT...THEY WILL REMAIN
GUSTY OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCALES IN THE
COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. GIVEN THE WINDS STAYING UP
OVERNIGHT...WENT WITH LOW TEMPS A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS
MAINLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THURSDAY...

A SUNNY...WINDY AND MILD DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 40 MPH. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW LOCATIONS
TOUCH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN JUST BELOW. NONETHELESS...LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY. A SUPER ADIABATIC ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS TO REACH IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT
IT WILL FEEL COOLER GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...EXCEPT MILDER IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS
AROUND NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY...BUT MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S ON THE ISLAND AND LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE.  DECENT SHOT AT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN HEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IT MAY TRIGGER SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDER.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

LOW CONFIDENCE BUT PATTERN MAY TURN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND SHOWERY
AT TIMES. THIS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. ITS CERTAINLY NOT A LOCK THOUGH AS THIS IS
6 TO 7 DAYS IN THE FUTURE...BUT A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COOL/WET
WEATHER MAY OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH A BIT TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN
GUSTY. NORTHWEST WINDS PICK BACK UP AT 30 TO 40 KNOTS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS
GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER
OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.
.MON...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THURSDAY...

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT.

AFTER COORDINATING WITH FIRE WEATHER CONTACTS HAVE UPGRADED TO RED
FLAG WARNING/S ON THURSDAY FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK AND ALL OF LONG ISLAND. ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT HELD
ONTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHERE THERE WAS SOME RAIN TODAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...ITS
POSSIBLE THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING GIVEN THE
STRONG WINDS/LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED. PLENTY OF TIME
THOUGH FOR THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO REVIEW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ002>004-
     006-074-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK
MARINE...FRANK
FIRE WEATHER...FRANK
HYDROLOGY...FRANK





000
FXUS61 KOKX 231726
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
126 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY TO OUR EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

125 PM UPDATE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE STILL AFFECTING EASTERN
CONNECTICUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS A RESULT OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL ALOFT WAS DIVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL BE TO OUR NORTHEAST CLOSER TO
THE COLD POOL ALOFT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AT
TIMES ACROSS EASTERN CT INTO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW YORK/NORTHEAST NJ...MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A
BRIEF ISOLATED SPRINKLE/SPOT SHOWER.

COLD ADVECTION AND LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK/NORTHEAST NJ...WHERE
A FEW GUSTS OF 45 MPH CAN/T BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS
JUST TOO MARGINAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME...GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THU WHICH AT TIMES WILL
APPROACH 45 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WHILE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS WILL FEATURE LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MID
30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR THIS EVENING.

ON THU...RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT AND THE STRONG NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THU...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ONCE AGAIN...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION.
RIGHT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO WHERE
THE FRONT WILL EXACTLY SET UP...EITHER OVER OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY RESULT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN
CONNECTICUT THROUGH 20Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH A BIT TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN
GUSTY. NORTHWEST WINDS PICK BACK UP AT 30 TO 40 KNOTS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS
GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER
OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS RH VALUES GRADUALLY
LOWER INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS
WILL GUST WELL IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WITH 1- AND 10- HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
ADDRESSED IN THE FWF AS WELL AS IN AN SPS.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THU AS EXTREME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT WITH STRONG NW WINDS AND RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-074-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...FRANK/JC
MARINE...DW
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 231546
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1145 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY TO OUR EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1145 AM UPDATE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE STILL AFFECTING EASTERN
CONNECTICUT AT AROUND NOON.  THIS A RESULT OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL ALOFT WAS DIVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL BE TO OUR NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AT TIMES
ACROSS EASTERN CT INTO THE AFTERNOON.

FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW YORK/NORTHEAST NJ...MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT THERE WILL BE AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDINESS.

COLD ADVECTION AND LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST NEW
YORK/NORTHEAST NJ...WHERE A FEW GUSTS OF 45 MPH CAN/T BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS JUST TOO MARGINAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME...GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THU WHICH AT TIMES WILL
APPROACH 45 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WHILE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS WILL FEATURE LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MID
30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR THIS EVENING.

ON THU...RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT AND THE STRONG NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THU...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ONCE AGAIN...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION.
RIGHT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO WHERE
THE FRONT WILL EXACTLY SET UP...EITHER OVER OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

VFR. SOME SUB-VFR POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 14Z EAST OF THE CITY WITH
SCT -SHRA.

INCREASING NW WINDS TODAY. WINDS PEAK THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS MOSTLY
AROUND 35KT...HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES DEVELOP BY AFT AND CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS RH VALUES GRADUALLY
LOWER INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS
WILL GUST WELL IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WITH 1- AND 10- HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
ADDRESSED IN THE FWF AS WELL AS IN AN SPS.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THU AS EXTREME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT WITH STRONG NW WINDS AND RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-074-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...DW
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 231447
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1047 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY TO OUR EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1045 AM UPDATE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING MAINLY EASTERN
CONNECTICUT AS OF LATE MORNING. THERE WERE ALSO A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS BACK IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...BUT THEY WERE MUCH LESS
WIDESPREAD.

POTENT SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL ALOFT WAS DIVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL BE TO OUR
NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE AT TIMES ACROSS EASTERN CT INTO THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER
WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW YORK/NORTHEAST CT...SHOULD SEE THE THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE EAST.

MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN CYCLONIC FLOW.
WHILE WE MAY SEE A FEW PEEKS OF SUN...CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
DOMINANT. IN ADDITION...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK/NORTHEAST NJ...WHERE A FEW GUSTS
OF 45 MPH CAN/T BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS JUST TOO MARGINAL
FOR A WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME...GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THU WHICH AT TIMES WILL
APPROACH 45 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WHILE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS WILL FEATURE LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MID
30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR THIS EVENING.

ON THU...RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT AND THE STRONG NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THU...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ONCE AGAIN...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION.
RIGHT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO WHERE
THE FRONT WILL EXACTLY SET UP...EITHER OVER OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

VFR. SOME SUB-VFR POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 14Z EAST OF THE CITY WITH
SCT -SHRA.

INCREASING NW WINDS TODAY. WINDS PEAK THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS MOSTLY
AROUND 35KT...HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES DEVELOP BY AFT AND CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS RH VALUES GRADUALLY
LOWER INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS
WILL GUST WELL IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WITH 1- AND 10- HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
ADDRESSED IN THE FWF AS WELL AS IN AN SPS.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THU AS EXTREME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT WITH STRONG NW WINDS AND RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-074-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...DW
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 231427
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1027 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY TO OUR EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1025 AM UPDATE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING MAINLY EASTERN
CONNECTICUT AS OF LATE MORNING. THERE WERE ALSO A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS BACK IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...BUT THEY WERE MUCH LESS
WIDESPREAD.

POTENT SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL ALOFT WAS DIVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL BE TO OUR
NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AT TIMES ACROSS EASTERN CT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...SHOULD SEE THE THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE EAST.

MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN CYCLONIC FLOW.
WHILE WE MAY SEE A FEW PEEKS OF SUN...CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
DOMINANT. IN ADDITION...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...WHERE A FEW GUSTS OF 45 MPH
CAN/T BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS JUST TOO MARGINAL FOR A
WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME...GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THU WHICH AT TIMES WILL
APPROACH 45 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WHILE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS WILL FEATURE LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MID
30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR THIS EVENING.

ON THU...RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT AND THE STRONG NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THU...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ONCE AGAIN...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION.
RIGHT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO WHERE
THE FRONT WILL EXACTLY SET UP...EITHER OVER OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

VFR. SOME SUB-VFR POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 14Z EAST OF THE CITY WITH
SCT -SHRA.

INCREASING NW WINDS TODAY. WINDS PEAK THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS MOSTLY
AROUND 35KT...HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES DEVELOP BY AFT AND CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS RH VALUES GRADUALLY
LOWER INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS
WILL GUST WELL IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WITH 1- AND 10- HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
ADDRESSED IN THE FWF AS WELL AS IN AN SPS.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THU AS EXTREME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT WITH STRONG NW WINDS AND RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-074-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...DW
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 231133
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
733 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR EASTERN LI/SE CT WITH A FEW POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS ASSOC WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT. THE
LATTER OF WHICH WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...
AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THU AS IT IT TRACKS
SLOWLY EAST, THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER A STRONG NW FLOW WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY THIS AFT. WINDS LOOK TO FALL JUST SHY OF
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY STRATA CU WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
PREFERRED THE COLDER MET MOS.

THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG NW WINDS AND DRYING OF THE AIR MASS
WILL ELEVATE THE RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME...GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THU WHICH AT TIMES WILL
APPROACH 45 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WHILE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS WILL FEATURE LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MID
30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR THIS EVENING.

ON THU...RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT AND THE STRONG NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THU...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ONCE AGAIN...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION.
RIGHT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO WHERE
THE FRONT WILL EXACTLY SET UP...EITHER OVER OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

VFR. SOME SUB-VFR POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 14Z EAST OF THE CITY WITH
SCT -SHRA.

INCREASING NW WINDS TODAY. WINDS PEAK THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS MOSTLY
AROUND 35KT...HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES DEVELOP BY AFT AND CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS RH VALUES GRADUALLY
LOWER INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS
WILL GUST WELL IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WITH 1- AND 10- HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
ADDRESSED IN THE FWF AS WELL AS IN AN SPS.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THU AS EXTREME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT WITH STRONG NW WINDS AND RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 231043
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
643 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR EASTERN LI/SE CT WITH A FEW POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS ASSOC WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT. THE
LATTER OF WHICH WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...
AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THU AS IT IT TRACKS
SLOWLY EAST, THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER A STRONG NW FLOW WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY THIS AFT. WINDS LOOK TO FALL JUST SHY OF
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY STRATA CU WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
PREFERRED THE COLDER MET MOS.

THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG NW WINDS AND DRYING OF THE AIR MASS
WILL ELEVATE THE RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME...GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THU WHICH AT TIMES WILL
APPROACH 45 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WHILE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS WILL FEATURE LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MID
30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR THIS EVENING.

ON THU...RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT AND THE STRONG NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THU...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ONCE AGAIN...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION.
RIGHT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO WHERE
THE FRONT WILL EXACTLY SET UP...EITHER OVER OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

VFR. SOME SUB-VFR POSSIBLE BEFORE 11-12Z EAST OF THE CITY WITH ISO
-SHRA AND REDUCED VSBYS PRECEDING WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE WNW.

INCREASING NW WINDS TODAY. WINDS PEAK THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS MOSTLY
AROUND 35KT...HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN025-035 POSSIBLE AT TIMES UNTIL 11-12Z.
WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT
TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS FAVORING NORTH OF 310
MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. NW G25KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES DEVELOP BY AFT AND CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS RH VALUES GRADUALLY
LOWER INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS
WILL GUST WELL IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WITH 1- AND 10- HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
ADDRESSED IN THE FWF AS WELL AS IN AN SPS.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THU AS EXTREME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT WITH STRONG NW WINDS AND RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 230840
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
440 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF NYC WILL PASS EASTERN LI AND SE CT BY
DAYBREAK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWERS. A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE TROF ALOFT WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...
AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THU AS IT IT TRACKS
SLOWLY EAST, THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER A STRONG NW FLOW WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY THIS AFT. WINDS LOOK TO FALL JUST SHY OF
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY STRATA CU WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
PREFERRED THE COLDER MET MOS.

THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG NW WINDS AND DRYING OF THE AIR MASS
WILL ELEVATE THE RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME...GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THU WHICH AT TIMES WILL
APPROACH 45 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WHILE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS WILL FEATURE LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MID
30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR THIS EVENING.

ON THU...RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT AND THE STRONG NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THU...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ONCE AGAIN...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION.
RIGHT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO WHERE
THE FRONT WILL EXACTLY SET UP...EITHER OVER OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

VFR. SOME SUB-VFR POSSIBLE BEFORE 11-12Z EAST OF THE CITY WITH ISO
-SHRA AND REDUCED VSBYS PRECEDING WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE WNW.

INCREASING NW WINDS TODAY. WINDS PEAK THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS MOSTLY
AROUND 35KT...HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN025-035 POSSIBLE AT TIMES UNTIL 11-12Z.
WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT
TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS FAVORING NORTH OF 310
MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. NW G25KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES DEVELOP BY AFT AND CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS RH VALUES GRADUALLY
LOWER INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS
WILL GUST WELL IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WITH 1- AND 10- HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
ADDRESSED IN THE FWF AS WELL AS IN AN SPS.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THU AS EXTREME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT WITH STRONG NW WINDS AND RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 230815
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
415 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF NYC WILL PASS EASTERN LI AND SE CT BY
DAYBREAK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWERS. A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE TROF ALOFT WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...
AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THU AS IT IT TRACKS
SLOWLY EAST, THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER A STRONG NW FLOW WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY THIS AFT. WINDS LOOK TO FALL JUST SHY OF
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY STRATA CU WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
PREFERRED THE COLDER MET MOS.

THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG NW WINDS AND DRYING OF THE AIR MASS
WILL ELEVATE THE RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME...GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THU WHICH AT TIMES WILL
APPROACH 45 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WHILE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS WILL FEATURE LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MID
30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR THIS EVENING.

ON THU...RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT AND THE STRONG NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THU...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ONCE AGAIN...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION.
RIGHT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO WHERE
THE FRONT WILL EXACTLY SET UP...EITHER OVER OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT TODAY.

VFR. SOME SUB-VFR POSSIBLE BEFORE 11-12Z EAST OF THE CITY WITH ISO
-SHRA AND REDUCED VSBYS PRECEDING WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE WNW.

WINDS GENERALLY WNW BEFORE AROUND 12Z...THEN NW THEREAFTER.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT FOR THE CITY TERMINALS BEFORE 09Z.
WINDS PEAK THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS MOSTLY AROUND 35KT...HOWEVER
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE.

WIND DIRECTION IN THE CITY FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...THEN NORTH OF IT THEREAFTER.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. NW G25KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES DEVELOP BY AFT AND CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS RH VALUES GRADUALLY
LOWER INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS
WILL GUST WELL IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WITH 1- AND 10- HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
ADDRESSED IN THE FWF AS WELL AS IN AN SPS.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THU AS EXTREME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT WITH STRONG NW WINDS AND RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...DW
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 230604
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
204 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY
EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...COLD FRONTS OFTEN ARE SLOWER THAN THE
GUIDANCE. LATEST 05Z ANALYSIS...PLACES THE FRONT RIGHT ON TOP OF
NYC WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W. ALREADY SEEING GUSTS APPROACHING
20 KT AT KMGJ. TO THE EAST...SOME PATCHY FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WINDS
BECOME WESTERLY WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. HAVE ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH AN AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THESE SHOULD BE LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS WITH LITTLE
FANFARE AND LIGHT RAINFALL.

LOWS TONIGHT 45-50 MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST GFS LAMP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN THOUGH WITH
THE PARENT LOW STILL PRETTY STRONG FOR SPRING WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 995MB ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS DEEPENS
APPROXIMATELY 5 MB THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE GUSTY NW FLOW INCREASES TOWARDS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SLOWLY PUSHES FARTHER EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
DESPITE THE ENTRANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/NAM12 FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL
DEGREES...MORE SO AT NIGHT.

ALSO...STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF LEFT FRONT QUAD WILL CREATE
VERTICAL FORCING. HENCE...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MORE THE
FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMPETING A
CONTINUING DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A WIND
MACHINE OVER THE REGION THU...WITH DEEP MIXING AND BORDERLINE WIND
ADVY CONDITIONS THE RESULT. 50 KT WINDS RELEGATED TO AOA H85 PER THE
12Z MODEL DATA...AS A RESULT CAPPED GUSTS AT 45 MPH. DEEP SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN A COMPLETELY SUNNY DAY. THE WINDS WILL CALM DOWN ON
FRI AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A WARMER AIR MASS IN
PLACE. THE ONSET OF SEA BREEZE FLOW AND RETURN SLY FLOW SHOULD
ACTUALLY KEEP THE S COASTS COOLER THAN THU. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTN...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD
SHRA. THE GFS IS THE FASTED AND MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...AND IF
THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE CORRECT A COMPLETELY DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED.
ONLY 20 POPS IN THE FCST ATTM. MODEL TIMING IS BETTER WITH AN UPR
WAVE AND PERIOD OF LGT RAIN FRI NGT INTO SAT. HIGH CHC POPS FOR
THIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME HINT OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AS THE WAVE TRACKS OFFSHORE...SPINNING SOME LGT PCPN
IN FROM THE N SAT NGT AND SUN. LOW CHC POPS MAINTAINED IN THE FCST
DUE TO THE GFS CONSISTENCY. FOR MON AND TUE...THE GFS IS COMPLETELY
DRY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING SWD FROM CANADA. THE ECMWF HOWEVER HAS
BROUGHT THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FURTHER NWD INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE OVC WX WITH CHCS FOR RAIN. THE FCST
SIDES WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT DRY SOLNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT TODAY.

VFR. SOME SUB-VFR POSSIBLE BEFORE 11-12Z EAST OF THE CITY WITH ISO
-SHRA AND REDUCED VSBYS PRECEDING WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE WNW.

WINDS GENERALLY WNW BEFORE AROUND 12Z...THEN NW THEREAFTER.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT FOR THE CITY TERMINALS BEFORE 09Z.
WINDS PEAK THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS MOSTLY AROUND 35KT...HOWEVER
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE.

WIND DIRECTION IN THE CITY FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...THEN NORTH OF IT THEREAFTER.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. NW G25KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. GALES SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SLOW PROGRESSION OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CREATING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE SOME
PERIODS WHERE WINDS ARE BELOW GALES EARLY WEDNESDAY.

GALES LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU THU WITH LOW PRES S OF THE MARITIMES.
THE LOW DEPARTS WITH WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS FRI. WIND AND SEAS
COME UP SAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ON SUN WITH NLY FLOW...THEN HIPRES ON MON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME SPOTS REACHING DOWN TO 30 PERCENT. THIS
COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL CREATE SOME ENHANCED
FIRE SPREAD CONDITIONS BUT NOT QUITE AS PROMINENT AND PRONOUNCED
AS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. PLUS...THERE COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WHICH FURTHER LIMITS FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY.

STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH AND MIN RH FALLING INTO THE
TEENS IN SPOTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON THU.
CONSULTATION WITH LAND MANAGERS INDICATES THAT VENTILATION ON WED
SHOULD PRIME THE FUELS FOR THU...EVEN IF 1/4 INCH OF RAIN OR MORE
OCCURS THRU TNGT. AS A RESULT...A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRI NGT AND SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KOKX 230310
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1110 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS STALLED WELL TO THE WEST OVER CENTRAL PA.
SHOWERS WITH LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST...
BUT SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED IN INSTABILITY AXIS
JUST TO ITS EAST OVER NE PA. THESE MAY HEAD EAST TO NYC METRO
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
WITH THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS...WITH ITS BEST FORCING FROM THESE
AREAS SOUTH INTO NJ AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

LOWS TONIGHT 45-50 MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST GFS LAMP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN THOUGH WITH
THE PARENT LOW STILL PRETTY STRONG FOR SPRING WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 995MB ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS DEEPENS
APPROXIMATELY 5 MB THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE GUSTY NW FLOW INCREASES TOWARDS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SLOWLY PUSHES FARTHER EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
DESPITE THE ENTRANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/NAM12 FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL
DEGREES...MORE SO AT NIGHT.

ALSO...STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF LEFT FRONT QUAD WILL CREATE
VERTICAL FORCING. HENCE...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MORE THE
FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMPETING A
CONTINUING DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A WIND
MACHINE OVER THE REGION THU...WITH DEEP MIXING AND BORDERLINE WIND
ADVY CONDITIONS THE RESULT. 50 KT WINDS RELEGATED TO AOA H85 PER THE
12Z MODEL DATA...AS A RESULT CAPPED GUSTS AT 45 MPH. DEEP SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN A COMPLETELY SUNNY DAY. THE WINDS WILL CALM DOWN ON
FRI AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A WARMER AIR MASS IN
PLACE. THE ONSET OF SEA BREEZE FLOW AND RETURN SLY FLOW SHOULD
ACTUALLY KEEP THE S COASTS COOLER THAN THU. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTN...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD
SHRA. THE GFS IS THE FASTED AND MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...AND IF
THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE CORRECT A COMPLETELY DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED.
ONLY 20 POPS IN THE FCST ATTM. MODEL TIMING IS BETTER WITH AN UPR
WAVE AND PERIOD OF LGT RAIN FRI NGT INTO SAT. HIGH CHC POPS FOR
THIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME HINT OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AS THE WAVE TRACKS OFFSHORE...SPINNING SOME LGT PCPN
IN FROM THE N SAT NGT AND SUN. LOW CHC POPS MAINTAINED IN THE FCST
DUE TO THE GFS CONSISTENCY. FOR MON AND TUE...THE GFS IS COMPLETELY
DRY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING SWD FROM CANADA. THE ECMWF HOWEVER HAS
BROUGHT THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FURTHER NWD INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE OVC WX WITH CHCS FOR RAIN. THE FCST
SIDES WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT DRY SOLNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...PASSES THROUGH THE TERMINALS 03Z THROUGH 07Z. THE LOW
MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY.

VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WINDS SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10KT OR LESS...SHIFTING TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY WIND DEVELOPS AFTER
05Z WITH GUSTS 20-25KT. NORTHWEST WIND AND GUSTS INCREASE DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40KT AT TIMES BY AFTERNOON.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. NW G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AFTER 05Z.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/EVE -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT-SUN...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER IT WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND
WITH A CHC -SHRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. GALES SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SLOW PROGRESSION OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CREATING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE SOME
PERIODS WHERE WINDS ARE BELOW GALES EARLY WEDNESDAY.

GALES LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU THU WITH LOW PRES S OF THE MARITIMES.
THE LOW DEPARTS WITH WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS FRI. WIND AND SEAS
COME UP SAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ON SUN WITH NLY FLOW...THEN HIPRES ON MON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME SPOTS REACHING DOWN TO 30 PERCENT. THIS
COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL CREATE SOME ENHANCED
FIRE SPREAD CONDITIONS BUT NOT QUITE AS PROMINENT AND PRONOUNCED
AS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. PLUS...THERE COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WHICH FURTHER LIMITS FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY.

STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH AND MIN RH FALLING INTO THE
TEENS IN SPOTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON THU.
CONSULTATION WITH LAND MANAGERS INDICATES THAT VENTILATION ON WED
SHOULD PRIME THE FUELS FOR THU...EVEN IF 1/4 INCH OF RAIN OR MORE
OCCURS THRU TNGT. AS A RESULT...A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH TONIGHT IS 1/10 INCH OF LESS.

A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRI NGT AND SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN/JM
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MET/PW
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/JM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 230002
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
802 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BANDS OF SHOWERS...ONE OVER OVER ERN-MOST CT/LONG ISLAND AND
ANOTHER ENTERING WRN CT/LONG ISLAND...WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EAST
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR
LATER THIS EVENING...WITH MENTION OF THUNDER CONFINED TO MAINLY
WEST OF NYC OUTSIDE OF MARITIME INFLUENCE.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY DRIER
NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING IN BEHIND IT.

SHOWERS SHOULD END FOR MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT INTERIOR
AND EASTERN SECTIONS COULD SEE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO INTO
DAYBREAK.

MIN TEMPS WERE A BLEND OF NAM12/GFS40 AND WILL BE NEAR AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN THOUGH WITH
THE PARENT LOW STILL PRETTY STRONG FOR SPRING WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 995MB ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS DEEPENS
APPROXIMATELY 5 MB THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE GUSTY NW FLOW INCREASES TOWARDS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SLOWLY PUSHES FARTHER EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
DESPITE THE ENTRANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/NAM12 FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL
DEGREES...MORE SO AT NIGHT.

ALSO...STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF LEFT FRONT QUAD WILL CREATE
VERTICAL FORCING. HENCE...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MORE THE
FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMPETING A
CONTINUING DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A WIND
MACHINE OVER THE REGION THU...WITH DEEP MIXING AND BORDERLINE WIND
ADVY CONDITIONS THE RESULT. 50 KT WINDS RELEGATED TO AOA H85 PER THE
12Z MODEL DATA...AS A RESULT CAPPED GUSTS AT 45 MPH. DEEP SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN A COMPLETELY SUNNY DAY. THE WINDS WILL CALM DOWN ON
FRI AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A WARMER AIR MASS IN
PLACE. THE ONSET OF SEA BREEZE FLOW AND RETURN SLY FLOW SHOULD
ACTUALLY KEEP THE S COASTS COOLER THAN THU. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTN...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD
SHRA. THE GFS IS THE FASTED AND MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...AND IF
THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE CORRECT A COMPLETELY DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED.
ONLY 20 POPS IN THE FCST ATTM. MODEL TIMING IS BETTER WITH AN UPR
WAVE AND PERIOD OF LGT RAIN FRI NGT INTO SAT. HIGH CHC POPS FOR
THIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME HINT OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AS THE WAVE TRACKS OFFSHORE...SPINNING SOME LGT PCPN
IN FROM THE N SAT NGT AND SUN. LOW CHC POPS MAINTAINED IN THE FCST
DUE TO THE GFS CONSISTENCY. FOR MON AND TUE...THE GFS IS COMPLETELY
DRY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING SWD FROM CANADA. THE ECMWF HOWEVER HAS
BROUGHT THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FURTHER NWD INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE OVC WX WITH CHCS FOR RAIN. THE FCST
SIDES WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT DRY SOLNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...PASSES THROUGH THE TERMINALS 02Z THROUGH 06Z. THE LOW
MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY.

VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WINDS SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10KT OR LESS...SHIFTING TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY WIND DEVELOPS AFTER
05Z WITH GUSTS 20-25KT. NORTHWEST WIND AND GUSTS INCREASE DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40KT AT TIMES BY AFTERNOON.


      NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WESTERLY AROUND 10KT WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND RIGHT AROUND 310 TRUE AT TIMES DURING WEDNESDAY.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BE VARIABLE THROUGH 01Z UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT NEARS THE TERMINAL. THEN WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND RIGHT AROUND 310 TRUE AT TIMES DURING WEDNESDAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BE VARIABLE THROUGH 01Z UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT NEARS THE TERMINAL. THEN WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND RIGHT AROUND 310 TRUE AT TIMES DURING WEDNESDAY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WESTERLY AROUND 10KT UNTIL FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND RIGHT AROUND 310 TRUE AT TIMES DURING WEDNESDAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BE VARIABLE THROUGH 01Z UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT NEARS THE TERMINAL. THEN WINDS BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND RIGHT AROUND 310 TRUE AT TIMES DURING WEDNESDAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10KT COULD BECOME
VARIABLE UNTIL 02Z AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE TERMINAL.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND RIGHT AROUND 310 TRUE AT TIMES DURING WEDNESDAY.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. NW G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AFTER 05Z.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/EVE -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT-SUN...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER IT WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND
WITH A CHC -SHRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR AT TIMES.


&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA TONIGHT. GALES WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SLOW PROGRESSION OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT CREATING TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS ARE BELOW GALES
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

GALES LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU THU WITH LOW PRES S OF THE MARITIMES.
THE LOW DEPARTS WITH WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS FRI. WIND AND SEAS
COME UP SAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ON SUN WITH NLY FLOW...THEN HIPRES ON MON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME SPOTS REACHING DOWN TO 30 PERCENT. THIS
COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL CREATE SOME ENHANCED
FIRE SPREAD CONDITIONS BUT NOT QUITE AS PROMINENT AND PRONOUNCED
AS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. PLUS...THERE COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WHICH FURTHER LIMITS FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY.

STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH AND MIN RH FALLING INTO THE
TEENS IN SPOTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON THU.
CONSULTATION WITH LAND MANAGERS INDICATES THAT VENTILATION ON WED
SHOULD PRIME THE FUELS FOR THU...EVEN IF 1/4 INCH OF RAIN OR MORE
OCCURS THRU TNGT. AS A RESULT...A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH TONIGHT IS 1/10 INCH OF LESS.

A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRI NGT AND SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN/JM
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MET/PW
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/JM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 222048
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
448 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE PARENT LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY EXIT FARTHER EAST WHILE DEEPENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION STARTING TO BUILD IN WESTERN PA ASSOCIATED WITH
STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT. ITS PARENT LOW IS ALSO IN THE PROCESS
OF DEEPENING IN NORTHERN NY STATE.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING WITH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
MOVING IN BEHIND IT. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED FROM
LIFTED INDICES A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO...MOSTLY FOR THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND NYC. THERE IS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS SHOWN BY MUCAPE PLOTS FROM THE HRRR.
THEREFORE THERE IS GOING TO BE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ALONG WITH THAT...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

THE SHOWERS END FOR MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT INTERIOR
AND EASTERN ZONES COULD SEE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO INTO
DAYBREAK BUT CHANCES WILL BE LOWERING QUITE A BIT.

MIN TEMPS WERE A BLEND OF NAM12/GFS40 AND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND VERY DRY AIRMASS
WILL BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN THOUGH WITH
THE PARENT LOW STILL PRETTY STRONG FOR SPRING WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 995MB ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS DEEPENS
APPROXIMATELY 5 MB THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE GUSTY NW FLOW INCREASES TOWARDS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SLOWLY PUSHES FARTHER EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
DESPITE THE ENTRANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/NAM12 FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL
DEGREES...MORE SO AT NIGHT.

ALSO...STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF LEFT FRONT QUAD WILL CREATE
VERTICAL FORCING. HENCE...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MORE THE
FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMPETING A
CONTINUING DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A WIND
MACHINE OVER THE REGION THU...WITH DEEP MIXING AND BORDERLINE WIND
ADVY CONDITIONS THE RESULT. 50 KT WINDS RELEGATED TO AOA H85 PER THE
12Z MODEL DATA...AS A RESULT CAPPED GUSTS AT 45 MPH. DEEP SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN A COMPLETELY SUNNY DAY. THE WINDS WILL CALM DOWN ON
FRI AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A WARMER AIRMASS IN
PLACE. THE ONSET OF SEA BREEZE FLOW AND RETURN SLY FLOW SHOULD
ACTUALLY KEEP THE S COASTS COOLER THAN THU. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTN...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD
SHRA. THE GFS IS THE FASTED AND MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...AND IF
THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE CORRECT A COMPLETELY DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED.
ONLY 20 POPS IN THE FCST ATTM. MODEL TIMING IS BETTER WITH AN UPR
WAVE AND PERIOD OF LGT RAIN FRI NGT INTO SAT. HIGH CHC POPS FOR
THIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME HINT OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AS THE WAVE TRACKS OFFSHORE...SPINNING SOME LGT PCPN
IN FROM THE N SAT NGT AND SUN. LOW CHC POPS MAINTAINED IN THE FCST
DUE TO THE GFS CONSISTENCY. FOR MON AND TUE...THE GFS IS COMPLETELY
DRY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING SWD FROM CANADA. THE ECMWF HOWEVER HAS
BROUGHT THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FURTHER NWD INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE OVC WX WITH CHCS FOR RAIN. THE FCST
SIDES WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT DRY SOLNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

VFR. HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE 23Z TO 1Z
TIME FRAME IN MODERATE SHOWERS. LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER. ANY THUNDER
WILL BE ISOLATED...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER COLD FRONT
1-3Z. NW WINDS OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...NW WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY 20
TO 30 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AFTER 12Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE UNLIKELY. WIND AT THE AIRPORT
PREDOMINATELY 270-300 DEGREES MAG. WIND MAY BECOME MORE 250 AND
BECOME LIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: STRONG SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY AFTER 6 PM.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY WIND CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTH WIND CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED AFTERNOON...VFR. NW G30-35KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/EVE -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT-SUN...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER IT WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND
WITH A CHC -SHRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON OCEAN. GALES WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SLOW PROGRESSION OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT CREATING TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS ARE BELOW GALES
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

GALES LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU THU WITH LOW PRES S OF THE MARITIMES.
THE LOW DEPARTS WITH WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS FRI. WIND AND SEAS
COME UP SAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ON SUN WITH NLY FLOW...THEN HIPRES ON MON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME SPOTS REACHING DOWN TO 30 PERCENT. THIS
COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL CREATE SOME ENHANCED
FIRE SPREAD CONDITIONS BUT NOT QUITE AS PROMINENT AND PRONOUNCED
AS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. PLUS...THERE COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WHICH FURTHER LIMITS FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY.

STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH AND MIN RH FALLING INTO THE
TEENS IN SPOTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON THU.
CONSULTATION WITH LAND MANAGERS INDICATES THAT VENTILATION ON WED
SHOULD PRIME THE FUELS FOR THU...EVEN IF 1/4 INCH OF RAIN OR MORE
OCCURS THRU TNGT. AS A RESULT...A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH TONIGHT IS UP TO 1/4 INCH.

A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRI NGT AND SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MET/PW
MARINE...JMC/JM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM









000
FXUS61 KOKX 222016 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
407 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE PARENT LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY EXIT FARTHER EAST WHILE DEEPENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION STARTING TO BUILD IN WESTERN PA ASSOCIATED WITH
STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT. ITS PARENT LOW IS ALSO IN THE PROCESS
OF DEEPENING IN NORTHERN NY STATE.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING WITH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
MOVING IN BEHIND IT. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED FROM
LIFTED INDICES A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO...MOSTLY FOR THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND NYC. THERE IS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS SHOWN BY MUCAPE PLOTS FROM THE HRRR.
THEREFORE THERE IS GOING TO BE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ALONG WITH THAT...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

THE SHOWERS END FOR MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT INTERIOR
AND EASTERN ZONES COULD SEE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO INTO
DAYBREAK BUT CHANCES WILL BE LOWERING QUITE A BIT.

MIN TEMPS WERE A BLEND OF NAM12/GFS40 AND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND VERY DRY AIRMASS
WILL BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN THOUGH WITH
THE PARENT LOW STILL PRETTY STRONG FOR SPRING WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 995MB ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS DEEPENS
APPROXIMATELY 5 MB THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE GUSTY NW FLOW INCREASES TOWARDS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SLOWLY PUSHES FARTHER EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
DESPITE THE ENTRANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/NAM12 FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL
DEGREES...MORE SO AT NIGHT.

ALSO...STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF LEFT FRONT QUAD WILL CREATE
VERTICAL FORCING. HENCE...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MORE THE
FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMPETING A
CONTINUING DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NW FLOW.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A WIND
MACHINE OVER THE REGION THU...WITH DEEP MIXING AND BORDERLINE WIND
ADVY CONDITIONS THE RESULT. 50 KT WINDS RELEGATED TO AOA H85 PER THE
12Z MODEL DATA...AS A RESULT CAPPED GUSTS AT 45 MPH. DEEP SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN A COMPLETELY SUNNY DAY. THE WINDS WILL CALM DOWN ON
FRI AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A WARMER AIRMASS IN
PLACE. THE ONSET OF SEA BREEZE FLOW AND RETURN SLY FLOW SHOULD
ACTUALLY KEEP THE S COASTS COOLER THAN THU. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTN...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD
SHRA. THE GFS IS THE FASTED AND MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...AND IF
THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE CORRECT A COMPLETELY DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED.
ONLY 20 POPS IN THE FCST ATTM. MODEL TIMING IS BETTER WITH AN UPR
WAVE AND PERIOD OF LGT RAIN FRI NGT INTO SAT. HIGH CHC POPS FOR
THIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME HINT OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AS THE WAVE TRACKS OFFSHORE...SPINNING SOME LGT PCPN
IN FROM THE N SAT NGT AND SUN. LOW CHC POPS MAINTAINED IN THE FCST
DUE TO THE GFS CONSISTENCY. FOR MON AND TUE...THE GFS IS COMPLETELY
DRY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING SWD FROM CANADA. THE ECMWF HOWEVER HAS
BROUGHT THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FURTHER NWD INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE OVC WX WITH CHCS FOR RAIN. THE FCST
SIDES WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT DRY SOLNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

VFR. HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE 23Z TO 1Z
TIME FRAME IN MODERATE SHOWERS. LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER. ANY THUNDER
WILL BE ISOLATED...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER COLD FRONT
1-3Z. NW WINDS OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...NW WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY 20
TO 30 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AFTER 12Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT WILL BE CLOSE
TO THE AIRPORT TO THE EAST. WIND AT THE AIRPORT PREDOMINATELY
190-210 DEGREES MAG.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: STRONG SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY AFTER 6 PM.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY WIND CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTH WIND CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED AFTERNOON...VFR. NW G30-35KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/EVE -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT-SUN...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER IT WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND
WITH A CHC -SHRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON OCEAN. GALES WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SLOW PROGRESSION OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT CREATING TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS ARE BELOW GALES
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

GALES LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU THU WITH LOW PRES S OF THE MARITIMES.
THE LOW DEPARTS WITH WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS FRI. WIND AND SEAS
COME UP SAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ON SUN WITH NLY FLOW...THEN HIPRES ON MON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME SPOTS REACHING DOWN TO 30 PERCENT. THIS
COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL CREATE SOME ENHANCED
FIRE SPREAD CONDITIONS BUT NOT QUITE AS PROMINENT AND PRONOUNCED
AS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. PLUS...THERE COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WHICH FURTHER LIMITS FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY.

STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH AND MIN RH FALLING INTO THE
TEENS IN SPOTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON THU.
CONSULTATION WITH LAND MANAGERS INDICATES THAT VENTILATION ON WED
SHOULD PRIME THE FUELS FOR THU...EVEN IF 1/4 INCH OF RAIN OR MORE
OCCURS THRU TNGT. AS A RESULT...A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH TONIGHT IS UP TO 1/4 INCH.

A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRI NGT AND SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/JM
FIRE WEATHER...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM










000
FXUS61 KOKX 222001
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
401 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE PARENT LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY EXIT FARTHER EAST WHILE DEEPENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION STARTING TO BUILD IN WESTERN PA ASSOCIATED WITH
STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT. ITS PARENT LOW IS ALSO IN THE PROCESS
OF DEEPENING IN NORTHERN NY STATE.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING WITH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
MOVING IN BEHIND IT. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED FROM
LIFTED INDICES A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO...MOSTLY FOR THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND NYC. THERE IS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS SHOWN BY MUCAPE PLOTS FROM THE HRRR.
THEREFORE THERE IS GOING TO BE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ALONG WITH THAT...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

MIN TEMPS WERE A BLEND OF NAM12/GFS40 AND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND VERY DRY AIRMASS
WILL BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN THOUGH WITH
THE PARENT LOW STILL PRETTY STRONG FOR SPRING WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 995MB ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS DEEPENS
APPROXIMATELY 5 MB THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE GUSTY NW FLOW INCREASES TOWARDS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SLOWLY PUSHES FARTHER EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
DESPITE THE ENTRANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/NAM12 FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL
DEGREES...MORE SO AT NIGHT.

ALSO...STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF LEFT FRONT QUAD WILL CREATE
VERTICAL FORCING. HENCE...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MORE THE
FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMPETING A
CONTINUING DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NW FLOW.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A WIND
MACHINE OVER THE REGION THU...WITH DEEP MIXING AND BORDERLINE WIND
ADVY CONDITIONS THE RESULT. 50 KT WINDS RELEGATED TO AOA H85 PER THE
12Z MODEL DATA...AS A RESULT CAPPED GUSTS AT 45 MPH. DEEP SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN A COMPLETELY SUNNY DAY. THE WINDS WILL CALM DOWN ON
FRI AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A WARMER AIRMASS IN
PLACE. THE ONSET OF SEA BREEZE FLOW AND RETURN SLY FLOW SHOULD
ACTUALLY KEEP THE S COASTS COOLER THAN THU. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTN...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD
SHRA. THE GFS IS THE FASTED AND MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...AND IF
THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE CORRECT A COMPLETELY DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED.
ONLY 20 POPS IN THE FCST ATTM. MODEL TIMING IS BETTER WITH AN UPR
WAVE AND PERIOD OF LGT RAIN FRI NGT INTO SAT. HIGH CHC POPS FOR
THIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME HINT OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AS THE WAVE TRACKS OFFSHORE...SPINNING SOME LGT PCPN
IN FROM THE N SAT NGT AND SUN. LOW CHC POPS MAINTAINED IN THE FCST
DUE TO THE GFS CONSISTENCY. FOR MON AND TUE...THE GFS IS COMPLETELY
DRY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING SWD FROM CANADA. THE ECMWF HOWEVER HAS
BROUGHT THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FURTHER NWD INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE OVC WX WITH CHCS FOR RAIN. THE FCST
SIDES WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT DRY SOLNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

VFR. HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE 23Z TO 1Z
TIME FRAME IN MODERATE SHOWERS. LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER. ANY THUNDER
WILL BE ISOLATED...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER COLD FRONT
1-3Z. NW WINDS OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...NW WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY 20
TO 30 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AFTER 12Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT WILL BE CLOSE
TO THE AIRPORT TO THE EAST. WIND AT THE AIRPORT PREDOMINATELY
190-210 DEGREES MAG.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: STRONG SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY AFTER 6 PM.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY WIND CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTH WIND CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED AFTERNOON...VFR. NW G30-35KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/EVE -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT-SUN...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER IT WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND
WITH A CHC -SHRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON OCEAN. GALES WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GALES LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU THU WITH LOW PRES S OF THE MARITIMES.
THE LOW DEPARTS WITH WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS FRI. WIND AND SEAS
COME UP SAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ON SUN WITH NLY FLOW...THEN HIPRES ON MON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH AND MIN RH FALLING INTO THE
TEENS IN SPOTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON THU.
CONSULTATION WITH LAND MANAGERS INDICATES THAT VENTILATION ON WED
SHOULD PRIME THE FUELS FOR THU...EVEN IF 1/4 INCH OF RAIN OR MORE
OCCURS THRU TNGT. AS A RESULT...A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT IS UP TO 1/4 INCH.

A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRI NGT AND SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/JM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 221740
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
140 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WORKS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERALL...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO REMARKABLE CHANGES
MADE TO FORECAST DATABASE FOR THE NEAR TERM. SLIGHTLY INCREASED
TEMPS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS FOR NORTHEAST NJ AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

SFC COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOP AND MOVE NEAR THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PARENT LOW
ATTACHED TO COLD FRONT DEEPENS APPROXIMATELY 5 MB THROUGH THE DAY
SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR CONSOLIDATION AND ORGANIZATION OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO THE WEST. LEFT CONVECTION AS
ISOLATED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FORECAST.

AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WORKS EAST TODAY...
SENDING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. UPPER
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK PRECEDING THE FRONT THIS AFT...WITH FRONTAL
FORCING BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS. AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...
MAINLY ALOFT...WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR. DRY LOW LEVELS COULD SUPPORT
SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY SHOWERS LATE THIS AFT...BUT NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY SEVERE OR STRONG CONVECTION.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING THIS AFT. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 70 WEST OF
NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ BY 8
PM...AND FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

A GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK WED AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT.
THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH BY AFT. RIGHT NOW...CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE.

PREFERRED COLDER NAM MOS WITH THE POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION AND
CYCLONIC FLOW AIDING STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING
EAST ON FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW
AND ARRIVING HIGH WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW A BRIEF SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
BUILD OVERHEAD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION. THERE
IS A CHANCE THE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST
DAYS IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S...COOLEST READINGS NEAR THE COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THEN RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

VFR. HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE 23Z TO 1Z
TIME FRAME IN SHOWERS. LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER. ANY THUNDER WILL BE
ISOLATED.

WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER COLD FRONT
1-3Z. NW WINDS OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...NW WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY 20
TO 30 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AFTER 12Z.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT WILL BE CLOSE
TO THE AIRPORT TO THE EAST. WIND AT THE AIRPORT PREDOMINATELY
190-210 DEGREES MAG.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY WIND CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTH WIND CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED AFTERNOON...VFR. NW G30-35KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/EVE -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT-SUN...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER IT WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND
WITH A CHC -SHRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

A STRONG NW FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK
WED...STRENGTHENING TO NEAR GALE FORCE BY AFT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND COAST. GALES
COULD LINGER INTO THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS WED AFT
AND NIGHT.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOWERING RH VALUES TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT AND STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL ELEVATE THE SPREAD OF ANY WILD FIRES THAT
DO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONCERNS CONTINUE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS EVEN LOWER RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT IS UP TO 1/4 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FROM WED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...BC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 221448
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1048 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PASS
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY LOW FORMS
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND WORKS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO
SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOP AND MOVE NEAR THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PARENT LOW
ATTACHED TO COLD FRONT DEEPENS APPROXIMATELY 5 MB THROUGH THE DAY
SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR CONSOLIDATION AND ORGANIZATION OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO THE WEST. LEFT CONVECTION AS
ISOLATED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...JUST
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND POPS FOR
SHOWERS. OVERALL...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WORKS EAST TODAY...
SENDING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. UPPER
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK PRECEDING THE FRONT THIS AFT...WITH FRONTAL
FORCING BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS. AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...
MAINLY ALOFT...WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR. DRY LOW LEVELS COULD SUPPORT
SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY SHOWERS LATE THIS AFT...BUT NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY SEVERE OR STRONG CONVECTION.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING THIS AFT. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 70 WEST OF
NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ BY 8
PM...AND FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

A GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK WED AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT.
THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH BY AFT. RIGHT NOW...CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE.

PREFERRED COLDER NAM MOS WITH THE POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION AND
CYCLONIC FLOW AIDING STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING
EAST ON FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW
AND ARRIVING HIGH WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW A BRIEF SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
BUILD OVERHEAD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION. THERE
IS A CHANCE THE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST
DAYS IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S...COOLEST READINGS NEAR THE COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THEN RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. FOR ALL
TERMINALS...START TIME OF -SHRA COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OFF...AND
A LOW CHANCE OF TSTM ACCOMPANYING SHRA.

A GENERAL SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KTS THIS MORNING MAY FLUCTUATE
DUE TO MIDDAY SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MIGHT NOT OCCUR...RESULTING IN
WINDS MOSTLY AROUND 220 MAGNETIC FROM 18Z-21Z. IF SEA BREEZE
OCCURS...IT MIGHT NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL 19Z OR 20Z. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OFF.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO
OFF...OR POSSIBLY NOT PASSING THROUGH AT ALL. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT A SEA BREEZE PASSES THROUGH
SOMETIME BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO AROUND 180 MAGNETIC.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT A SEA BREEZE DOES NOT PASS THROUGH
AS INDICATED AT 16Z...RESULTING IN WINDS PREVAILING CLOSER TO 200
MAGNETIC.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...VFR. NW G30-35KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/EVE -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

A STRONG NW FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK
WED...STRENGTHENING TO NEAR GALE FORCE BY AFT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND COAST. GALES
COULD LINGER INTO THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS WED AFT
AND NIGHT.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOWERING RH VALUES TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT AND STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL ELEVATE THE SPREAD OF ANY WILD FIRES THAT
DO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONCERNS CONTINUE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS EVEN LOWER RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT IS UP TO 1/4 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FROM WED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC/PW
MARINE...BC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 221129
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
729 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PASS
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY LOW FORMS
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND WORKS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO
SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE WITH MOST RECENT UPDATE TO ACCOUNT
FOR INITIAL CONDITIONS.

SFC COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL TRACK EAST
TODAY...PRECEDED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER WESTERN PA THIS
MORNING. THE LATTER OF WHICH WILL WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE
AREA. A WEAK SLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP TROUGH
THE DAY. THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONCERN FOR STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS TO THE SOUTH AND WORK NORTH INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS NO INDICATION OF
DEVELOPMENT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. IN ADDITION...DEW POINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S TO THE SOUTH MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED.

AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WORKS EAST TODAY...
SENDING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. UPPER
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK PRECEDING THE FRONT THIS AFT...WITH FRONTAL
FORCING BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS. AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...
MAINLY ALOFT...WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR. DRY LOW LEVELS COULD SUPPORT
SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY SHOWERS LATE THIS AFT...BUT NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY SEVERE OR STRONG CONVECTION.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING THIS AFT. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 70 WEST OF
NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ BY 8
PM...AND FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

A GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK WED AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT.
THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH BY AFT. RIGHT NOW...CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE.

PREFERRED COLDER NAM MOS WITH THE POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION AND
CYCLONIC FLOW AIDING STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING
EAST ON FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW
AND ARRIVING HIGH WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW A BRIEF SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
BUILD OVERHEAD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION. THERE
IS A CHANCE THE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST
DAYS IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S...COOLEST READINGS NEAR THE COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THEN RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. FOR ALL
TERMINALS...START TIME OF -SHRA COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OFF...AND
A LOW CHANCE OF TSTM ACCOMPANYING SHRA.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING
PUSH. CONFIDENCE LOWERS BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MIGHT NOT OCCUR...RESULTING IN
WINDS MOSTLY AROUND 220 MAGNETIC FROM 18Z-21Z. IF SEA BREEZE
OCCURS...IT MIGHT NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL 19Z OR 20Z. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OFF.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO
OFF...OR POSSIBLY NOT PASSING THROUGH AT ALL. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT A SEA BREEZE PASSES THROUGH
SOMETIME BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO AROUND 180 MAGNETIC.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT A SEA BREEZE DOES NOT PASS THROUGH
AS INDICATED AT 16Z...RESULTING IN WINDS PREVAILING CLOSER TO 200
MAGNETIC.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...VFR. NW G30-35KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/EVE -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

A STRONG NW FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK
WED...STRENGTHENING TO NEAR GALE FORCE BY AFT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND COAST. GALES
COULD LINGER INTO THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS WED AFT
AND NIGHT.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOWERING RH VALUES TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT AND STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL ELEVATE THE SPREAD OF ANY WILD FIRES THAT
DO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONCERNS CONTINUE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS EVEN LOWER RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT IS UP TO 1/4 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FROM WED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 221026
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
626 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PASS
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY LOW FORMS
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND WORKS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO
SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE WITH MOST RECENT UPDATE TO ACCOUNT
FOR INITIAL CONDITIONS.

SFC COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL TRACK EAST
TODAY...PRECEDED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER WESTERN PA THIS
MORNING. THE LATTER OF WHICH WILL WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE
AREA. A WEAK SLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP TROUGH
THE DAY. THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONCERN FOR STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS TO THE SOUTH AND WORK NORTH INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS NO INDICATION OF
DEVELOPMENT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. IN ADDITION...DEW POINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S TO THE SOUTH MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED.

AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WORKS EAST TODAY...
SENDING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. UPPER
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK PRECEDING THE FRONT THIS AFT...WITH FRONTAL
FORCING BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS. AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...
MAINLY ALOFT...WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR. DRY LOW LEVELS COULD SUPPORT
SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY SHOWERS LATE THIS AFT...BUT NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY SEVERE OR STRONG CONVECTION.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING THIS AFT. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 70 WEST OF
NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ BY 8
PM...AND FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

A GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK WED AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT.
THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH BY AFT. RIGHT NOW...CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE.

PREFERRED COLDER NAM MOS WITH THE POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION AND
CYCLONIC FLOW AIDING STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING
EAST ON FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW
AND ARRIVING HIGH WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW A BRIEF SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
BUILD OVERHEAD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION. THERE
IS A CHANCE THE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST
DAYS IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S...COOLEST READINGS NEAR THE COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THEN RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. FOR ALL
TERMINALS...START TIME OF -SHRA COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OFF. FOR ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KISP/KBDR/KGON...LOW CHANCE OF TSTM ACCOMPANYING
SHRA.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING
PUSH. CONFIDENCE LOWERS BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MIGHT NOT OCCUR...RESULTING IN
WINDS MOSTLY AROUND 220 MAGNETIC FROM 18Z-21Z. IF SEA BREEZE
OCCURS...IT MIGHT NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL 19Z OR 20Z. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OFF.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO
OFF...OR POSSIBLY NOT PASSING THROUGH AT ALL. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT A SEA BREEZE PASSES THROUGH
SOMETIME BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO AROUND 180 MAGNETIC.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT A SEA BREEZE DOES NOT PASS THROUGH
AS INDICATED AT 16Z...RESULTING IN WINDS PREVAILING CLOSER TO 200
MAGNETIC.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO 3-5SM VSBYS MIGHT NOT OCCUR EARLY THIS
MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...VFR. NW G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR. NW G30-35KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/EVE -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

A STRONG NW FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK
WED...STRENGTHENING TO NEAR GALE FORCE BY AFT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND COAST. GALES
COULD LINGER INTO THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS WED AFT
AND NIGHT.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOWERING RH VALUES TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT AND STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL ELEVATE THE SPREAD OF ANY WILD FIRES THAT
DO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONCERNS CONTINUE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS EVEN LOWER RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT IS UP TO 1/4 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FROM WED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 220900
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
500 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PASS
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY LOW FORMS
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND WORKS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO
SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL TRACK EAST
TODAY...PRECEDED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER WESTERN PA THIS
MORNING. THE LATTER OF WHICH WILL WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE
AREA. A WEAK SLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP TROUGH
THE DAY. THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONCERN FOR STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS TO THE SOUTH AND WORK NORTH INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS NO INDICATION OF
DEVELOPMENT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. IN ADDITION...DEW POINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S TO THE SOUTH MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED.

AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WORKS EAST TODAY...
SENDING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. UPPER
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK PRECEDING THE FRONT THIS AFT...WITH FRONTAL
FORCING BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS. AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...
MAINLY ALOFT...WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR. DRY LOW LEVELS COULD SUPPORT
SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY SHOWERS LATE THIS AFT...BUT NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY SEVERE OR STRONG CONVECTION.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING THIS AFT. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 70 WEST OF
NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ BY 8
PM...AND FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

A GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK WED AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT.
THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH BY AFT. RIGHT NOW...CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE.

PREFERRED COLDER NAM MOS WITH THE POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION AND
CYCLONIC FLOW AIDING STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING
EAST ON FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW
AND ARRIVING HIGH WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW A BRIEF SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
BUILD OVERHEAD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION. THERE
IS A CHANCE THE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST
DAYS IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S...COOLEST READINGS NEAR THE COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THEN RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. FOR ALL
TERMINALS...START TIME OF -SHRA COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OFF. FOR ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KISP/KBDR/KGON...LOW CHANCE OF TSTM ACCOMPANYING
SHRA.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING
PUSH. CONFIDENCE LOWERS BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MIGHT NOT OCCUR...RESULTING IN
WINDS MOSTLY AROUND 220 MAGNETIC FROM 18Z-21Z. IF SEA BREEZE
OCCURS...IT MIGHT NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL 19Z OR 20Z. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OFF.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO
OFF...OR POSSIBLY NOT PASSING THROUGH AT ALL. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT A SEA BREEZE PASSES THROUGH
SOMETIME BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO AROUND 180 MAGNETIC.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT A SEA BREEZE DOES NOT PASS THROUGH
AS INDICATED AT 16Z...RESULTING IN WINDS PREVAILING CLOSER TO 200
MAGNETIC.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO 3-5SM VSBYS MIGHT NOT OCCUR EARLY THIS
MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...VFR. NW G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR. NW G30-35KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/EVE -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.


&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

A STRONG NW FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK
WED...STRENGTHENING TO NEAR GALE FORCE BY AFT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND COAST. GALES
COULD LINGER INTO THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS WED AFT
AND NIGHT.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOWERING RH VALUES TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT AND STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL ELEVATE THE SPREAD OF ANY WILD FIRES THAT
DO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONCERNS CONTINUE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS EVEN LOWER RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT IS UP TO 1/4 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FROM WED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...DW
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 220619
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
219 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE BASED ON INITIAL CONDITIONS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT...WITH SKIES GENERALLY
PTCLDY. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...AND HAVE MAINTAINED A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/PATCHY FOG ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND AROUND DAYBREAK. RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD ALSO LEAD TO
SOME SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 40S MOST PLACES...
PERHAPS UPPER 30S ACROSS INTERIOR SE CT AND IN THE LONG ISLAND
PINE BARRENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. WITH A
CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY.

THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES AND A DISTRIBUTION SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF ECS/MAV/MET
GUIDANCE WITH AGAIN COOLER READINGS AT THE COAST WITH MORE ONSHORE
FLOW.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED TO IT DEEPENS ABOUT
3-5 MB AS CONVEYED BY DIFFERENT MODELS. THIS WILL COME FROM A
STRENGTHENING JET STREAK...INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
ALSO...INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING...MAINLY OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY INTO NYC. MUCAPE UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG IS SHOWN.

THEREFORE...EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WESTERN AREAS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY INTO NYC.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...SWITCHING FLOW FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. SHOWERS
WILL BE WITHIN THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AND THEN
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE. LOWS WERE A BLEND OF
MET/MAV/NAM12 TO CONVEY TEMPS STAYING UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE CWA
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CLEARING THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
IT. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ENERGY FOR AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE BUILDING
SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SURFACE SYSTEMS...WEDNESDAY IS
SHAPING UP TO BE WINDY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH. A
FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SLOW TO CHANGE. THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST
BECOMES A CUT-OFF LOW SLOWING DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN.
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WEAKEN A BIT BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY.
GUSTS WILL COME BACK UP ON THURSDAY ALTHOUGH STRONGEST GUSTS MAY BE
MORE ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. WINDS FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO ALLOW A BRIEF SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD
OVERHEAD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT DID NOT GO MUCH HIGHER THAN 30 POP WITH
DIFFERENCES APPARENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS RANGE. THESE
DIFFERENCES ONLY GET LARGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS
TO DEEPEN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CURRENTLY NOT
CARRYING ANY POPS SUNDAY...BUT IF THE CUT-OFF IS CLOSE ENOUGH...SOME
DAYTIME HEATING INSTABILITY SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE COLD
POCKET ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CUT-OFF
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

FOR TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO
BE THE WARMEST DAYS IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S...COOLEST READINGS NEAR THE COAST. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THEN RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COLDER AIR
BEING USHERED IN BEHIND THE LOW TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING.

MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG/STRATUS EARLY TUE AM.
HIGHEST CHANCES ARE AT TERMINALS E OF NYC. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS AT
KISP/KBDR/KGON WHERE HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE. AREAS OF
MVFR CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUE AFTN/EVE...BUT
NOT CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM. TIMING OF -SHRA IN CURRENT
TAFS MAY BE +/- 1-3 HOURS.

LOW CHANCE OF TSTM LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING FOR THE CITY...NJ...AND
HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE OF IT AFFECTING KEWR/KTEB ARE
UNCERTAIN. KLGA/KHPN HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE...WITH
KJFK/KBDR/KGON MOST LIKELY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...-SHRA WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS ENDING IN THE EVE.
COLD FROPA WITH NW-N WINDS G20-25KT IN ITS WAKE.
.WED-THU NIGHT...VFR. NW-N WIND G25-30KT.
.FRI-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS FRI AFTN - SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS MAINLY
STAYING UNDER 10 KT WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHER WINDS...10-15
KT GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT FOR WESTERN OCEAN WEST OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET. WAVEWATCH IS LIKELY OVERDOING SEAS...SO DO NOT THINK SCA
CONDS WILL OCCUR IN THE PRE-FRONTAL S-SW FLOW. GUSTS SHOULD BECOME
MORE FREQUENT LATER TUE NIGHT AFTER COLD FROPA...WITH SCA CONDS
POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN AS SEAS COULD REACH 5 FT.

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL RISE INTO SCA LEVELS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOWERING RH VALUES TO NEAR 30 PERCENT AND STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE CONCERNS CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS EVEN LOWER
RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH
CONTINUED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY IS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM WED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CT RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KOKX 220313
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1113 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT...WITH SKIES
GOING FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO PTCLDY. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...AND HAVE
ADDED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/PATCHY FOG ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LONG ISLAND WITH 01Z NARRE SIGNALING SOME POTENTIAL THERE.
RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND
FOG ELSEWHERE. ... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 40S MOST PLACES...
PERHAPS UPPER 30S ACROSS INTERIOR SE CT AND IN THE LONG ISLAND
PINE BARRENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. WITH A
CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY.

THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES AND A DISTRIBUTION SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF ECS/MAV/MET
GUIDANCE WITH AGAIN COOLER READINGS AT THE COAST WITH MORE ONSHORE
FLOW.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED TO IT DEEPENS ABOUT
3-5 MB AS CONVEYED BY DIFFERENT MODELS. THIS WILL COME FROM A
STRENGTHENING JET STREAK...INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
ALSO...INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING...MAINLY OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY INTO NYC. MUCAPE UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG IS SHOWN.

THEREFORE...EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WESTERN AREAS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY INTO NYC.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...SWITCHING FLOW FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. SHOWERS
WILL BE WITHIN THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AND THEN
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE. LOWS WERE A BLEND OF
MET/MAV/NAM12 TO CONVEY TEMPS STAYING UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE CWA
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CLEARING THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
IT. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ENERGY FOR AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE BUILDING
SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SURFACE SYSTEMS...WEDNESDAY IS
SHAPING UP TO BE WINDY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH. A
FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SLOW TO CHANGE. THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST
BECOMES A CUT-OFF LOW SLOWING DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN.
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WEAKEN A BIT BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY.
GUSTS WILL COME BACK UP ON THURSDAY ALTHOUGH STRONGEST GUSTS MAY BE
MORE ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. WINDS FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO ALLOW A BRIEF SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD
OVERHEAD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT DID NOT GO MUCH HIGHER THAN 30 POP WITH
DIFFERENCES APPARENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS RANGE. THESE
DIFFERENCES ONLY GET LARGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS
TO DEEPEN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CURRENTLY NOT
CARRYING ANY POPS SUNDAY...BUT IF THE CUT-OFF IS CLOSE ENOUGH...SOME
DAYTIME HEATING INSTABILITY SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE COLD
POCKET ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CUT-OFF
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

FOR TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO
BE THE WARMEST DAYS IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S...COOLEST READINGS NEAR THE COAST. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THEN RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COLDER AIR
BEING USHERED IN BEHIND THE LOW TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING.

MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT.
HIGHEST CHANCES ARE AT TERMINALS E OF NYC. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS
AT KISP/KBDR/KGON WHERE HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE. AREAS
OF MVFR CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUE AFTN/EVE...BUT
NOT CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM. TIMING OF -SHRA IN CURRENT
TAFS MAY BE +/- 1-3 HOURS.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...-SHRA WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS ENDING IN THE EVE.
COLD FROPA WITH NW-N WINDS G20-25KT IN ITS WAKE.
.WED-THU NIGHT...VFR. NW-N WIND G25-30KT.
.FRI-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS FRI AFTN - SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS MAINLY
STAYING UNDER 10 KT WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHER WINDS...10-15
KT GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT FOR WESTERN OCEAN WEST OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET. WAVEWATCH IS LIKELY OVERDOING SEAS...SO DO NOT THINK SCA
CONDS WILL OCCUR IN THE PRE-FRONTAL S-SW FLOW. GUSTS SHOULD BECOME
MORE FREQUENT LATER TUE NIGHT AFTER COLD FROPA...WITH SCA CONDS
POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN AS SEAS COULD REACH 5 FT.

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL RISE INTO SCA LEVELS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOWERING RH VALUES TO NEAR 30 PERCENT AND STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE CONCERNS CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS EVEN LOWER
RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH
CONTINUED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY IS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM WED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CT RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KOKX 220045
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
845 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
AGAIN BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT...WITH SKIES
GOING FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO PTCLDY. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE DEWPOINTS THIS EVENING WERE STILL IN THE 20S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 40S MOST PLACES...
PERHAPS UPPER 30S ACROSS INTERIOR SE CT AND IN THE LONG ISLAND
PINE BARRENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. WITH A
CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY.

THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES AND A DISTRIBUTION SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF ECS/MAV/MET
GUIDANCE WITH AGAIN COOLER READINGS AT THE COAST WITH MORE ONSHORE
FLOW.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED TO IT DEEPENS ABOUT
3-5 MB AS CONVEYED BY DIFFERENT MODELS. THIS WILL COME FROM A
STRENGTHENING JET STREAK...INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
ALSO...INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING...MAINLY OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY INTO NYC. MUCAPE UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG IS SHOWN.

THEREFORE...EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WESTERN AREAS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY INTO NYC.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...SWITCHING FLOW FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. SHOWERS
WILL BE WITHIN THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AND THEN
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE. LOWS WERE A BLEND OF
MET/MAV/NAM12 TO CONVEY TEMPS STAYING UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE CWA
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CLEARING THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
IT. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ENERGY FOR AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE BUILDING
SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SURFACE SYSTEMS...WEDNESDAY IS
SHAPING UP TO BE WINDY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH. A
FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SLOW TO CHANGE. THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST
BECOMES A CUT-OFF LOW SLOWING DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN.
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WEAKEN A BIT BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY.
GUSTS WILL COME BACK UP ON THURSDAY ALTHOUGH STRONGEST GUSTS MAY BE
MORE ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. WINDS FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO ALLOW A BRIEF SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD
OVERHEAD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT DID NOT GO MUCH HIGHER THAN 30 POP WITH
DIFFERENCES APPARENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS RANGE. THESE
DIFFERENCES ONLY GET LARGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS
TO DEEPEN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CURRENTLY NOT
CARRYING ANY POPS SUNDAY...BUT IF THE CUT-OFF IS CLOSE ENOUGH...SOME
DAYTIME HEATING INSTABILITY SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE COLD
POCKET ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CUT-OFF
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

FOR TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO
BE THE WARMEST DAYS IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S...COOLEST READINGS NEAR THE COAST. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THEN RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COLDER AIR
BEING USHERED IN BEHIND THE LOW TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING.

MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AT
TERMINALS E OF NYC AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS AT KISP/KBDR/KGON
WHERE HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE. AREAS OF MVFR CONDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUE AFTN/EVE...BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO
INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF -SHRA LATE TUE AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-3
HOURS. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF -SHRA LATE TUE AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-3
HOURS. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE.NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF -SHRA LATE TUE AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-3
HOURS. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE.NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF -SHRA LATE TUE AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-3
HOURS. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE.NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF -SHRA LATE TUE AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-3
HOURS. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE.NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF -SHRA LATE TUE AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-3
HOURS. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE 8Z-13Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...-SHRA WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS ENDING IN THE EVE.
COLD FROPA WITH NW-N WINDS G20-25KT IN ITS WAKE.
.WED-THU NIGHT...VFR. NW-N WIND G25-30KT.
.FRI-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS FRI AFTN - SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS MAINLY
STAYING UNDER 10 KT WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHER WINDS...10-15
KT GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT FOR WESTERN OCEAN WEST OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET. WAVEWATCH IS LIKELY OVERDOING SEAS...SO DO NOT THINK SCA
CONDS WILL OCCUR IN THE PRE-FRONTAL S-SW FLOW. GUSTS SHOULD BECOME
MORE FREQUENT LATER TUE NIGHT AFTER COLD FROPA...WITH SCA CONDS
POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN AS SEAS COULD REACH 5 FT.

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL RISE INTO SCA LEVELS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOWERING RH VALUES TO NEAR 30 PERCENT AND STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE CONCERNS CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS EVEN LOWER
RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH
CONTINUED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY IS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM WED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CT RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KOKX 211957
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS TONIGHT...MOVING FARTHER AWAY. THIS WILL
GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY WHICH WILL MOVE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. A LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM TH WEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A TYPICAL SPRING SCENARIO FOR THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WARMEST IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO BE IN THE TEENS. MEANWHILE SOUTHEAST
CONNECTICUT IS THE COOLEST SPOT WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE
PROMOTING HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S.

CLOUDS REMAIN MINIMAL INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH THE RESIDUAL SUBSIDENCE OF
THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE AREA. THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.

AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
WITH THIS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE MORE OPTIMAL AND ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT...WHERE DEWPOINTS
WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGHER...SOME SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL
DEVELOP IN THE COOLEST SPOTS.

LOWS WERE A BLEND OF 2/3 ECE AND 1/3 MET...FAVORING COLDER SIDE OF
MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. WITH A
CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY.

THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES AND A DISTRIBUTION SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF ECS/MAV/MET
GUIDANCE WITH AGAIN COOLER READINGS AT THE COAST WITH MORE ONSHORE
FLOW.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED TO IT DEEPENS ABOUT
3-5 MB AS CONVEYED BY DIFFERENT MODELS. THIS WILL COME FROM A
STRENGTHENING JET STREAK...INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
ALSO...INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING...MAINLY OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY INTO NYC. MUCAPE UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG IS SHOWN.

THEREFORE...EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WESTERN AREAS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY INTO NYC.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...SWITCHING FLOW FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. SHOWERS
WILL BE WITHIN THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AND THEN
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE. LOWS WERE A BLEND OF
MET/MAV/NAM12 TO CONVEY TEMPS STAYING UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE CWA
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CLEARING THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
IT. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ENERGY FOR AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE BUILDING
SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SURFACE SYSTEMS...WEDNESDAY IS
SHAPING UP TO BE WINDY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH. A
FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SLOW TO CHANGE. THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST
BECOMES A CUT-OFF LOW SLOWING DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN.
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WEAKEN A BIT BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY.
GUSTS WILL COME BACK UP ON THURSDAY ALTHOUGH STRONGEST GUSTS MAY BE
MORE ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. WINDS FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO ALLOW A BRIEF SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD
OVERHEAD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT DID NOT GO MUCH HIGHER THAN 30 POP WITH
DIFFERENCES APPARENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS RANGE. THESE
DIFFERENCES ONLY GET LARGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS
TO DEEPEN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CURRENTLY NOT
CARRYING ANY POPS SUNDAY...BUT IF THE CUT-OFF IS CLOSE ENOUGH...SOME
DAYTIME HEATING INSTABILITY SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE COLD
POCKET ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CUT-OFF
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

FOR TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO
BE THE WARMEST DAYS IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S...COOLEST READINGS NEAR THE COAST. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THEN RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COLDER AIR
BEING USHERED IN BEHIND THE LOW TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING.

VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY.

SEA BREEZES ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT KJFK FROM 180 DEGS AT 13 KT BY 20Z. SSW
WINDS OF 5 KT OR LESS ARE FORECAST SUNSET-SUNRISE. SSW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR STRATUS AFT 06Z
TONIGHT AT KGON.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE TO 13Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE AFT-TUE NIGHT...SHRA BECOMING LIKELY WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. NW-N
WINDS G20-25KT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
.WED-THU NIGHT...VFR. NW-N WIND G25-30KT.
.FRI-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS FRI AFTN - SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS MAINLY
STAYING UNDER 10 KTS WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHER WINDS...10-15
KT GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT FOR WESTERN OCEAN WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.
THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SOMETIMES OVERESTIMATES WAVES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW SO SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
SCA WAS NOT ISSUED DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND MORE UNCERTAINTY. GUSTS
BECOME MORE FREQUENT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH SCA
POSSIBLE AGAIN AS OCEAN SEAS COULD AGAIN REACH 5 FT.

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL RISE INTO SCA LEVELS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOWERING RH VALUES TO NEAR 30 PERCENT AND STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE CONCERNS CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS EVEN LOWER
RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH
CONTINUED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
NIGHT...AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS IS FORECAST. NO
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DS
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JM/DS
FIRE WEATHER...DS
HYDROLOGY...JM/DS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 211801
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
201 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING...THEN CROSSES THE TRI-
STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN IMPACTS THE REGION AT THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZES HAVE
DEVELOPED...MITIGATING FURTHER WARMTH ALONG THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY ALREADY ACHIEVED HERE. MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
HIGHS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR INTERIOR. DAYTIME MIXING CONVEYED BY
BUFKIT TO BE LIMITED TO NEAR TO JUST BELOW 950MB WITH HIGHER
MIXING TO NEAR 925-900 MB ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

OVERALL...SPLIT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CUTOFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AND QUASI ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
LOCAL REGION. A SLIGHT RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS IS KEEPING
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON OTHER THAN A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE
CUTOFF WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE. AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE. WITH THIS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
MORE OPTIMAL AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST
CONNECTICUT...WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGHER...SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WERE A BLEND OF 2/3 ECE AND 1/3 MET...FAVORING COLDER SIDE OF
MOS GUIDANCE.

700-500 HPA LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY...ALONG WITH
SURFACE-850 HPA COLD FRONT. GFS APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSIVE OUTLIER
WITH HOW FAST FRONT AND PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH...SO USED A
NON-GFS BLEND FOR THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH OUT...WITH MAINLY A SCT-BKN
MID DECK ACROSS THE REGION.

SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK INTO WESTERN ZONES EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. APPEARS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER MOST OF
NE NJ AND MAINLY W PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY - NAM HAS A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND BOTH NAM AND GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE TOTAL TOTALS AT KSWF GET TO 51 - SO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THOSE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
MARINE INFLUENCE FARTHER EAST SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THUNDER FROM
FORMING FARTHER EAST...AND SHOULD PROMOTE THE RAPID WEAKENING OF
ANY STRONGER CONVECTION WHICH WERE TO MOVE IN FROM THE W.

NOTING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7000 FT...LEVEL OF FREE
CONVECTION BELOW 1000 M...AND 500 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -16 TO
-18C WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT SOME SMALL TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.

FOR HIGHS TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 975-925 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS IN COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...AND INLAND SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING OR GETTING JUST ABOVE THE 70
DEGREE MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE MODELS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
EVENING AND WILL BE CLEAR OF EASTERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
GFS IS THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS AND HAS PRECIP ENDING PRETTY MUCH
FROM 00-06Z...BUT THE ECMWF/NAM/SREF/CMC ARE A BIT SLOWER AND ENDS
PRECIP A BUT LATER. EITHER WAY...WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS
EARLY...AND WILL TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE BY MIDNIGHT. WITH UPPER
TROUGH AND STRONG SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. SKIES CLEAR OUT
DURING THE DAY...AND THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS...RESULTING IN A
STRONG NW FLOW OF 20-30 MPH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH.

WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AS THE HIGH
BUILDS EAST...AND THEN WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY. GUSTY
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY.

THE HIGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THAT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FROM MAINLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

STRONG NW FLOW WILL USHER CAA INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
DAYS. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...TEMPS WARM BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S/40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN IN THE 40S AT NIGHT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING.

VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY.

SEA BREEZES ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT KJFK FROM 180 DEGS AT 13 KT BY 20Z. SSW
WINDS OF 5 KT OR LESS ARE FORECAST SUNSET-SUNRISE. SSW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR STRATUS AFT 06Z
TONIGHT AT KGON.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE TO 13Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE AFT-TUE NIGHT...SHRA BECOMING LIKELY WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. NW-N
WINDS G20-25KT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
.WED-THU NIGHT...VFR. NW-N WIND G25-30KT.
.FRI-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS FRI AFTN - SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...STILL NO REMARKABLE CHANGES MADE TO MARINE
FORECAST WITH FORECAST STAYING ON TRACK.

A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS 10 KT OR LESS OVER ALL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE TO 10-15
KT OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS
SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO BRING SEAS TO 5 FT.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN HIGH
PRES BUILDS EAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
WINDS RAMP UP TO SCA LEVELS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...AND THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON EASTERN WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION - WIDESPREAD 1/2 INCH
OR MORE - IS LOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MPS
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...MALOIT/JM
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...MALOIT/JM/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MPS









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