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000
FXUS61 KOKX 241927
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO DEPART TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH...AND TO 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONT.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S...WHILE
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 40S. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING SUNDAY.
ITS RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH DURING MONDAY...AND WILL BE OFFSHORE
ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER ALL THREE DAYS...BUT BREEZY ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY...BUT A LITTLE COOLER ON MONDAY
DUE TO MORE LIMITED MIXING. A RETURN FLOW WITH SW WINDS WILL HELP
PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMALS ON TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE SLOW DUE TO THE FRONT BECOMING
ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE DAYTIME HOURS OF WEDS HAVE THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

MODELS DIFFER FOR FRIDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS ECMWF WITH A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION. SUPPORT FROM
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE NOT GREAT SO FAR...BUT WORTH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC
POPS.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

VFR EXPECTED REGIONWIDE TONIGHT AS BROKEN CLOUD DECK DISSIPATES
AFTER SUNSET. VFR IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

NW FLOW/GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIND
REMAINING RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS EVENING. WIND GRADUALLY
BECOMING WESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.  GUSTY NW WINDS TO
30KT LIKELY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IN CIGS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 30 KT ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...ALLOWING FOR TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SEAS AND WINDS INCREASING
TO SMALL CRAFT. WILL PUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR ALL WATERS
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AT MIDNIGHT WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.

SCA CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS SUNDAY WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW. WINDS
THEN SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD...SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR ALL
WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SW RETURN FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT ON TUESDAY...BUT GUSTS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN COULD BE
MARGINALLY AT SCA LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC








000
FXUS61 KOKX 241737
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
137 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...EXPECT A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY DUE TO AN
ABUNDANCE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR REGION...SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING TO THE WEST...AND NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH...AND TO 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WITH CAA AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID
40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC.

DRY AND MILD ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST AS THE FRONT APPEARS WILL COME THROUGH DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE
WEST.

TEMPO MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE EASTERN TERMINALS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND DISTANT ATLANTIC LOW. VFR
EXPECTED REGIONWIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP A BROKEN STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000 FT UNTIL
TONIGHT.

NW FLOW/GUSTS TO 25KT THROUGH 22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND REMAINING RIGHT
OF 310 MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IN CIGS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 30 KT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE NE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
THEREFORE..THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THERE MAY HOWEVER BE A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25
KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
REMAIN ON THE REST OF THE WATERS.

BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS










000
FXUS61 KOKX 241446
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1046 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED...WITH JUST
A FEW LEFT OVER ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS.

WITH ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PARTIALLY CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING TO THE WEST...AND NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER
60S ACROSS THE URBANIZED PARTS OF NE NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH...AND TO 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WITH CAA AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID
40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC.

DRY AND MILD ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST AS THE FRONT APPEARS WILL COME THROUGH DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

TEMPO MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE EASTERN TERMINALS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND DISTANT ATLANTIC LOW. VFR
EXPECTED REGIONWIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP A BROKEN STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000 FT UNTIL
TONIGHT.

NW FLOW/GUSTS TO 25KT THROUGH 22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IN CIGS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE NE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIL 4PM ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...AS WIND GUSTS AND SEAS REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
COULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS BEFORE 4PM. THEN...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN
ON THE REST OF THE WATERS.

BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS










000
FXUS61 KOKX 241446
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1046 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED...WITH JUST
A FEW LEFT OVER ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS.

WITH ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PARTIALLY CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING TO THE WEST...AND NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER
60S ACROSS THE URBANIZED PARTS OF NE NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH...AND TO 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WITH CAA AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID
40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC.

DRY AND MILD ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST AS THE FRONT APPEARS WILL COME THROUGH DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

TEMPO MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE EASTERN TERMINALS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND DISTANT ATLANTIC LOW. VFR
EXPECTED REGIONWIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP A BROKEN STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000 FT UNTIL
TONIGHT.

NW FLOW/GUSTS TO 25KT THROUGH 22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IN CIGS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE NE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIL 4PM ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...AS WIND GUSTS AND SEAS REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
COULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS BEFORE 4PM. THEN...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN
ON THE REST OF THE WATERS.

BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS










000
FXUS61 KOKX 241128
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
728 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS THAT ARE GRADUALLY
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

THE LAST SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH IT. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL TAPER OFF BY MID-MORNING.

WITH ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PARTIALLY CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING TO THE WEST...AND NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER
60S ACROSS THE URBANIZED PARTS OF NE NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH...AND TO 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WITH CAA AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID
40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC.

DRY AND MILD ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST AS THE FRONT APPEARS WILL COME THROUGH DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK TOWARDS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM
THE WEST.

AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
TEMPO MVFR CONDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS AND EVEN PERHAPS AT A FEW OF
THE NYC TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z OR SO. VFR EXPECTED THEREAFTER
HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A BKN STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 3500
AND 6000 FT AROUND TODAY.

NW FLOW/GUSTS PICK UP AGAIN 14Z-15Z AND CONTINUES THROUGH 22Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY DEVELOP AN
HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY DEVELOP AN
HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY DEVELOP AN
HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY DEVELOP AN
HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA 12Z-14Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE NE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

WIND GUSTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KT ON LI SOUND/LI BAYS/NY HARBOR.
THEREFORE...WILL CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR THOSE WATERS. SCA CONDS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...AND THEN TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP THROUGH
SATURDAY.

BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...24
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS











000
FXUS61 KOKX 240934
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
534 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH IT. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL TAPER OFF BY MID-MORNING.

WITH ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PARTIALLY CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING TO THE WEST...AND NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER
60S ACROSS THE URBANIZED PARTS OF NE NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH...AND TO 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WITH CAA AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID
40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC.

DRY AND MILD ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST AS THE FRONT APPEARS WILL COME THROUGH DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST...PASSING
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM
THE WEST.

ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR EXCEPT KSWF AND KGON. SHOWERS
DROPPING DOWN FROM CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z. CIGS COULD DROP TO
MVFR AT A FEW PLACES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THEM DOWN
ATTM. VFR SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BY 15Z...ALTHOUGH
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A BKN STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000
FT AROUND TODAY.

GUSTS HAVE BECOME OCNL AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
NW FLOW/GUSTS PICK UP AGAIN AFT SUNRISE...14Z-15Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL MID EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL MID EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL MID EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE NE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

WIND GUSTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KT ON LI SOUND/LI BAYS/NY HARBOR.
THEREFORE...WILL CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR THOSE WATERS. SCA CONDS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...AND THEN TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP THROUGH
SATURDAY.

BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...24
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS










000
FXUS61 KOKX 240841
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
441 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH IT. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL TAPER OFF BY MID-MORNING.

WITH ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PARTIALLY CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING TO THE WEST...AND NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER
60S ACROSS THE URBANIZED PARTS OF NE NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH...AND TO 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WITH CAA AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID
40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC.

DRY AND MILD ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST AS THE FRONT APPEARS WILL COME THROUGH DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST...PASSING
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM
THE WEST.

ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR EXCEPT KSWF AND KGON. SHOWERS
DROPPING DOWN FROM CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z. CIGS COULD DROP TO
MVFR AT A FEW PLACES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THEM DOWN
ATTM. VFR SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BY 15Z...ALTHOUGH
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A BKN STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000
FT AROUND TODAY.

GUSTS HAVE BECOME OCNL AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
NW FLOW/GUSTS PICK UP AGAIN AFT SUNRISE...14Z-15Z.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL MID EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL MID EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL MID EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE NE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
TO 25 KT OVER LI SOUND/LI BAYS/NY HARBOR THIS MORNING...AND SCA
REMAINS UP THROUGH 6 AM. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...CONDS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MIDDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS THEN ON TAP THROUGH
SATURDAY.

BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...24
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 240739
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
339 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH IT. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL TAPER OFF BY MID-MORNING.

WITH ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PARTIALLY CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING TO THE WEST...AND NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER
60S ACROSS THE URBANIZED PARTS OF NE NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH...AND TO 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WITH CAA AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID
40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC.

DRY AND MILD ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST AS THE FRONT APPEARS WILL COME THROUGH DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST...PASSING
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM
THE WEST.

VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AT NYC METRO TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
ALTHOUGH CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD KEEP A BKN STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 3500
AND 5000 FT AROUND TODAY. KBDR IS CURRENTLY VFR BUT COULD SEE SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. KISP/KGON STARTING OFF MVFR WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO LOW END
VFR. TIMING COULD BE A FEW HOURS OFF. VFR THEN REMAINS AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KHPN AND KISP STILL EXPERIENCING FREQ GUSTS SO HAVE KEPT THEM IN
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ANY OF THE TERMINALS COULD SEE AN OCNL GUST
UP TO 20 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NW FLOW/GUSTS PICK UP
AGAIN AFT SUNRISE...AROUND 14Z. DIRECTIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT
OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL MID EVE.

EXPECT MAINLY VICINITY IMPACTS FROM
LIGHT SHOWERS AT MOST TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WITH
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CATEGORY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE NE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
TO 25 KT OVER LI SOUND/LI BAYS/NY HARBOR THIS MORNING...AND SCA
REMAINS UP THROUGH 6 AM. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...CONDS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MIDDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS THEN ON TAP THROUGH
SATURDAY.

BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...24
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 240552
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
152 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACHES THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE THROUGH GEORGES BANK DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA...WITH WINDS ONLY DIMINISHING A LITTLE LATE AT NIGHT.

SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY LOWER HUD VALLEY/SOUTHERN CT AND EASTERN LI.
THE FIRST ROUND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE SLIDES
S...WITH A SECOND ROUND LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. OVERALL ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A SHOWER IN SPOTS OVER CT AND EASTERN
LI FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE....DRY ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW STRATO-CU WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH DURING
THE DAY...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
TRI-STATE. CLOUDS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS WEEKEND. CLOSER TO OUR REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
DRY...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG
NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH
20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THE MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL
MODERATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST...PASSING
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM
THE WEST.

VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AT NYC METRO TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
ALTHOUGH CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD KEEP A BKN STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 3500
AND 5000 FT AROUND TODAY. KBDR IS CURRENTLY VFR BUT COULD SEE SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. KISP/KGON STARTING OFF MVFR WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO LOW END
VFR. TIMING COULD BE A FEW HOURS OFF. VFR THEN REMAINS AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KHPN AND KISP STILL EXPERIENCING FREQ GUSTS SO HAVE KEPT THEM IN
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ANY OF THE TERMINALS COULD SEE AN OCNL GUST
UP TO 20 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NW FLOW/GUSTS PICK UP
AGAIN AFT SUNRISE...AROUND 14Z. DIRECTIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT
OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL MID EVE.

EXPECT MAINLY VICINITY IMPACTS FROM
LIGHT SHOWERS AT MOST TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WITH
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CATEGORY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT.

GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR OCEAN WATERS WITH WINDS
CURRENTLY RUNNING JUST BELOW GALE AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. FREQUENT SCA GUSTS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL BELOW SCA
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

MARGINAL NEAR-SHORE SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ALL WATERS ON FRI DEPENDING
ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING OVERLAND. OCEAN SEAS SHOULD
GRADUALLY FALL BELOW SCA FRI AFT.

SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW
WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
FOR THIS EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WITH RESIDUALS CONTINUING TO
FALL INTO TOMORROW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KOKX 240253
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1053 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACHES THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE THROUGH GEORGES BANK DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA...WITH WINDS ONLY DIMINISHING A LITTLE LATE AT NIGHT.

SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY LOWER HUD VALLEY/SOUTHERN CT AND EASTERN LI.
THE FIRST ROUND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE SLIDES
S...WITH A SECOND ROUND LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. OVERALL ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A SHOWER IN SPOTS OVER CT AND EASTERN
LI FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE....DRY ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW STRATO-CU WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH DURING
THE DAY...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
TRI-STATE. CLOUDS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS WEEKEND. CLOSER TO OUR REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
DRY...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG
NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH
20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THE MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL
MODERATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT...PASSING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

N-NW FLOW GENERALLY 10-15G20-25 KT SHOULD ABATE OVERNIGHT...
THEN PICK UP AGAIN BY 14Z FRI. WINDS SHOULD BACK SLIGHTLY MORE NW
ON FRI BUT REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC. EXPECT MAINLY VICINITY
IMPACTS FROM LIGHT SHOWERS AT KLGA/KJFK/KISP/KGON LATE THIS
EVENING AND AT MOST TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY DAYLIGHT
FRI...BUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CATEGORY.

CIGS SHOULD REMAIN LOW-END VFR OVERNIGHT AT THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS. IMPROVEMENT FARTHER INLAND AT KSWF AND TO THE EAST AT
KISP/KGON SHOULD TAKE LONGER...WITH VFR NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHED AMD FOR FLUCTUATING CIGS POSSIBLE.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT.

GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR OCEAN WATERS WITH WINDS
CURRENTLY RUNNING JUST BELOW GALE AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. FREQUENT SCA GUSTS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL BELOW SCA
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

MARGINAL NEAR-SHORE SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ALL WATERS ON FRI DEPENDING
ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING OVERLAND. OCEAN SEAS SHOULD
GRADUALLY FALL BELOW SCA FRI AFT.

SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW
WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
FOR THIS EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WITH RESIDUALS CONTINUING TO
FALL INTO TOMORROW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...BC/JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV










000
FXUS61 KOKX 240253
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1053 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACHES THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE THROUGH GEORGES BANK DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA...WITH WINDS ONLY DIMINISHING A LITTLE LATE AT NIGHT.

SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY LOWER HUD VALLEY/SOUTHERN CT AND EASTERN LI.
THE FIRST ROUND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE SLIDES
S...WITH A SECOND ROUND LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. OVERALL ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A SHOWER IN SPOTS OVER CT AND EASTERN
LI FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE....DRY ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW STRATO-CU WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH DURING
THE DAY...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
TRI-STATE. CLOUDS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS WEEKEND. CLOSER TO OUR REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
DRY...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG
NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH
20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THE MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL
MODERATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT...PASSING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

N-NW FLOW GENERALLY 10-15G20-25 KT SHOULD ABATE OVERNIGHT...
THEN PICK UP AGAIN BY 14Z FRI. WINDS SHOULD BACK SLIGHTLY MORE NW
ON FRI BUT REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC. EXPECT MAINLY VICINITY
IMPACTS FROM LIGHT SHOWERS AT KLGA/KJFK/KISP/KGON LATE THIS
EVENING AND AT MOST TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY DAYLIGHT
FRI...BUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CATEGORY.

CIGS SHOULD REMAIN LOW-END VFR OVERNIGHT AT THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS. IMPROVEMENT FARTHER INLAND AT KSWF AND TO THE EAST AT
KISP/KGON SHOULD TAKE LONGER...WITH VFR NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHED AMD FOR FLUCTUATING CIGS POSSIBLE.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT.

GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR OCEAN WATERS WITH WINDS
CURRENTLY RUNNING JUST BELOW GALE AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. FREQUENT SCA GUSTS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL BELOW SCA
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

MARGINAL NEAR-SHORE SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ALL WATERS ON FRI DEPENDING
ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING OVERLAND. OCEAN SEAS SHOULD
GRADUALLY FALL BELOW SCA FRI AFT.

SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW
WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
FOR THIS EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WITH RESIDUALS CONTINUING TO
FALL INTO TOMORROW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...BC/JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV










000
FXUS61 KOKX 240029
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
829 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACHES THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE THROUGH GEORGES BANK DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA...WITH WINDS ONLY DIMINISHING A LITTLE LATE AT NIGHT.

SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY LOWER HUD VALLEY/SOUTHERN CT AND EASTERN LI.
THE FIRST OF THESE...AFFECTING THE AREA THIS EVENING...WILL
CONTINUE TO PIVOT THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH A
SECOND POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. OVERALL ANY
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A SHOWER IN SPOTS OVER CT AND EASTERN
LI FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE....DRY ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW STRATO-CU WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH DURING
THE DAY...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
TRI-STATE. CLOUDS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS WEEKEND. CLOSER TO OUR REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
DRY...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG
NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH
20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THE MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL
MODERATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

N-NW FLOW 15G20-25 KT SHOULD ABATE LATE TONIGHT...THEN PICK UP
AGAIN BY 14Z FRI. DIRECTION WILL REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC EVEN
THOUGH WINDS SHOULD BACK MORE NW OVERNIGHT INTO FRI. SOME SHOWERS
COULD IMPACT KGON EARLY AND MOST TERMINALS CLOSE TO DAYBREAK...BUT
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL IMPACT IN FLIGHT CATEGORY.

CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TONIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY LOW-END VFR
AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...BUT COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING. IMPROVEMENT FARTHER INLAND AT KSWF AND TO THE
EAST AT KISP/KGON SHOULD TAKE LONGER...WITH VFR NOT EXPECTED AT
KGON UNTIL AFTERNOON.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHED AMD FOR CIGS POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARGINAL GALES THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO SCA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OTHER WATERS...MAY FALL JUST
BELOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MARGINAL NEARSHORE SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ALL WATERS ON FRI. OCEAN
SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL BELOW SCA FRI AFT.

SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW
WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
FOR THIS EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WITH RESIDUALS CONTINUING TO
FALL INTO TOMORROW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...BC/JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV










000
FXUS61 KOKX 232157
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
557 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACHES THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR NEXT VORT AND AREA OF SHOWERS PIVOTING
DOWN FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO SE CT/E LI THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

STACKED LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING BEFORE PICKING UP FORWARD MOTION TO NE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING A LITTLE LATE AT
NIGHT.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
TONIGHT WILL NOT EXTEND AS FAR WEST FROM THE CENTER OF THE STORM
AS IT HAS OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO. HIGHEST POPS OVER LONG ISLAND
AND CT...WITH THE RAINFALL THREAT ENDING WEST OF THESE AREAS BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A SHOWER IN SPOTS OVER CT AND EASTERN
LI FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE....DRY ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. HIGHER CLOUD COVER WILL BE GENERALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA...BUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN HALF. CLOUDS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS WEEKEND. CLOSER TO OUR REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
DRY...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG
NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH
20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THE MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL
MODERATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST.

AS THE LOW SLOWLY TRACKS AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS SLOW IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS.
EASTERN TERMINALS WILL SEE SLOWER IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING.

STRONG AND GUSTY N TO NW WIND 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE GUSTS ENDING AFTER 05Z.

VFR FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS IMPROVING THIS
EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN
HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS IMPROVING THIS
EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.
STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS IMPROVING THIS
EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.
STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS IMPROVING THIS
EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS IMPROVING THIS
EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS LIKELY INTO THIS
EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. NW WIND G20-25KT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. A TIGHT NW GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS TO ALSO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW
WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE ON AVERAGE THIS EVENING WILL BE A QUARTER
TO HALF FOOT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING. IN SPITE OF SOME LONG PERIOD
SE SWELLS DEVELOPING...THE LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDE COMBINED WITH A
PROLONGED MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BACKS OF LONG
ISLAND AND QUEENS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 231919
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
318 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACHES THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING BEFORE PICKING UP FORWARD MOTION TO NE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING A LITTLE LATE AT NIGHT.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AREAS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TONIGHT
WILL NOT EXTEND AS FAR WEST FROM THE CENTER OF THE STORM AS IT HAS
OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH CHC
POPS...HIGHEST OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT...WITH THE RAINFALL THREAT
ENDING WEST OF THESE AREAS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A SHOWER IN SPOTS OVER CT AND EASTERN
LI FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE....DRY ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. HIGHER CLOUD COVER WILL BE GENERALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA...BUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN HALF. CLOUDS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS WEEKEND. CLOSER TO OUR REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
DRY...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG
NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH
20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THE MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL
MODERATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST.

AS THE LOW SLOWLY TRACKS AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
CEILINGS HAVE BECOME VARIABLE FROM MVFR TO VFR...WITH CEILINGS
RANGING FROM AROUND 1500 TO 3500 FT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

STRONG AND GUSTY N TO NW WIND 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE GUSTS ENDING AFTER 05Z.

VFR FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING.



   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY
BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE
OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN
HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS LIKELY INTO THIS
EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. NW WIND G20-25KT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. A TIGHT NW GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS TO ALSO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW
WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE ON AVERAGE THIS EVENING WILL BE A QUARTER
TO HALF FOOT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING. IN SPITE OF SOME LONG PERIOD
SE SWELLS DEVELOPING...THE LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDE COMBINED WITH A
PROLONGED MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BACKS OF LONG
ISLAND AND QUEENS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC








000
FXUS61 KOKX 231919
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
318 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACHES THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING BEFORE PICKING UP FORWARD MOTION TO NE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING A LITTLE LATE AT NIGHT.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AREAS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TONIGHT
WILL NOT EXTEND AS FAR WEST FROM THE CENTER OF THE STORM AS IT HAS
OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH CHC
POPS...HIGHEST OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT...WITH THE RAINFALL THREAT
ENDING WEST OF THESE AREAS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A SHOWER IN SPOTS OVER CT AND EASTERN
LI FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE....DRY ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. HIGHER CLOUD COVER WILL BE GENERALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA...BUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN HALF. CLOUDS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS WEEKEND. CLOSER TO OUR REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
DRY...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG
NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH
20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THE MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL
MODERATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST.

AS THE LOW SLOWLY TRACKS AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
CEILINGS HAVE BECOME VARIABLE FROM MVFR TO VFR...WITH CEILINGS
RANGING FROM AROUND 1500 TO 3500 FT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

STRONG AND GUSTY N TO NW WIND 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE GUSTS ENDING AFTER 05Z.

VFR FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING.



   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY
BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE
OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN
HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS LIKELY INTO THIS
EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. NW WIND G20-25KT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. A TIGHT NW GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS TO ALSO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW
WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE ON AVERAGE THIS EVENING WILL BE A QUARTER
TO HALF FOOT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING. IN SPITE OF SOME LONG PERIOD
SE SWELLS DEVELOPING...THE LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDE COMBINED WITH A
PROLONGED MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BACKS OF LONG
ISLAND AND QUEENS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC








000
FXUS61 KOKX 231733
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
133 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK WILL DEEPEN AND MEANDER IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY TODAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEARLY STACKED LOW MEANDERS NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK TODAY. CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAND
OF SHOWERS PIVOTING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...SO EXPECTING LESS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOWERED HIGH TEMP FORECAST
A FEW DEGREES FOR MOST SPOTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND OBS.

NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES
TONIGHT...TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THINGS WILL
BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM W TO E THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING POPS.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRI WITH PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE
IN THE DAY FRI.

WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRI. CHILLY TONIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. A BIT WARMER ON
FRI GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY
BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.

THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE...AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF
H5 SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. STRONG NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK AND
THEN DEPARTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE
AND TEMPS WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOMETIME LATE IN THE
NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST.

MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH A CHANCE OF VFR CEILINGS
BRIEFLY UNTIL AFTER 20Z WHEN CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR
OR HIGH END MVFR...AROUND 30K FT. STEADY RAIN ACROSS NEW JERSEY
TERMINALS INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG LIKELY. WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED 23Z TO 03Z.

STRONG AND GUSTY N TO NW WIND 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE GUSTS ENDING AFTER 05Z.

VFR FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING.



   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WITH
IMPROVEMENT LATE. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF
AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WITH
IMPROVEMENT LATE. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF
AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE
OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS LIKELY INTO THIS
EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT LATE THIS EVENING.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. NW WIND G20-25KT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK...THEN TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. GALES
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND AT THE SAME TIME...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OTHER
WATERS.

SCA GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN AFTER GALES SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL LINGER INTO FRI AFTN. SUB
ADVSY CONDS ELSEWHERE.

MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE
BALANCE OF TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTHWEST OF THE CITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE ON AVERAGE THIS EVENING WILL BE A QUARTER
TO HALF FOOT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING. IN SPITE OF SOME LONG PERIOD
SE SWELLS DEVELOPING...THE LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDE COMBINED WITH A
PROLONGED MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BACKS OF LONG
ISLAND AND QUEENS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MPS
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...24/MPS
HYDROLOGY...24/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC











000
FXUS61 KOKX 231438
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1038 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK WILL DEEPEN AND MEANDER IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY TODAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEARLY STACKED LOW MEANDERS NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT AROUND
THE LOW TODAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...FOCUSED MORE TOWARD
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND DURING THE BALANCE OF
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE LESS
WIDESPREAD BY LATE AFTERNOON.

NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.

NAM MOS TEMPS LOOKED TOO COOL AND WERE DISCOUNTED. SO A BLEND OF
THE MAV/ECS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND TO AROUND 60 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES
TONIGHT...TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THINGS WILL
BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM W TO E THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING POPS.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRI WITH PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE
IN THE DAY FRI.

WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRI. CHILLY TONIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. A BIT WARMER ON
FRI GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY
BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.

THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE...AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF
H5 SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. STRONG NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK AND
THEN DEPARTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE
AND TEMPS WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOMETIME LATE IN THE
NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF MONTAUK POINT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO
THE NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT.

MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME INTO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH BRIEF VFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO
TIME. PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS RAIN BANDS MOVE FROM EAST TO
WEST AROUND THE LOW.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO LOW END VFR...3 TO 5
KFT...LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERN TERMINALS THOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO LOWER CEILINGS A LITTLE LONGER. THEN GENERALLY EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS TONIGHT.

WINDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG FROM THE NORTH...15 TO 20 KT...WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...EXCEPT NYC AND COASTAL
TERMINALS. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT OVERNIGHT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WITH
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE
OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WITH
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE
OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR
OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. TIMING OF
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY MVFR CEILINGS.
NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR IN BRIEF SHOWERS.
W WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK...THEN TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. GALES
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND AT THE SAME TIME...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OTHER
WATERS.

SCA GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN AFTER GALES SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL LINGER INTO FRI AFTN. SUB
ADVSY CONDS ELSEWHERE.

MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE
BALANCE OF TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTHWEST OF THE CITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A COASTAL
FLOODING STATEMENT FOR SPOTS ALONG WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF TOUCHING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS
WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORE OF LONG ISLAND NOW THAT THE WINDS
HAVE BEEN NORTHERLY FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MPS
NEAR TERM...JC/24/MPS
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET/PW
MARINE...24/MPS
HYDROLOGY...24/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC











000
FXUS61 KOKX 231438
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1038 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK WILL DEEPEN AND MEANDER IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY TODAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEARLY STACKED LOW MEANDERS NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT AROUND
THE LOW TODAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...FOCUSED MORE TOWARD
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND DURING THE BALANCE OF
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE LESS
WIDESPREAD BY LATE AFTERNOON.

NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.

NAM MOS TEMPS LOOKED TOO COOL AND WERE DISCOUNTED. SO A BLEND OF
THE MAV/ECS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND TO AROUND 60 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES
TONIGHT...TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THINGS WILL
BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM W TO E THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING POPS.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRI WITH PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE
IN THE DAY FRI.

WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRI. CHILLY TONIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. A BIT WARMER ON
FRI GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY
BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.

THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE...AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF
H5 SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. STRONG NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK AND
THEN DEPARTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE
AND TEMPS WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOMETIME LATE IN THE
NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF MONTAUK POINT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO
THE NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT.

MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME INTO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH BRIEF VFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO
TIME. PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS RAIN BANDS MOVE FROM EAST TO
WEST AROUND THE LOW.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO LOW END VFR...3 TO 5
KFT...LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERN TERMINALS THOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO LOWER CEILINGS A LITTLE LONGER. THEN GENERALLY EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS TONIGHT.

WINDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG FROM THE NORTH...15 TO 20 KT...WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...EXCEPT NYC AND COASTAL
TERMINALS. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT OVERNIGHT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WITH
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE
OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WITH
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE
OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR
OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. TIMING OF
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY MVFR CEILINGS.
NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR IN BRIEF SHOWERS.
W WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK...THEN TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. GALES
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND AT THE SAME TIME...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OTHER
WATERS.

SCA GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN AFTER GALES SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL LINGER INTO FRI AFTN. SUB
ADVSY CONDS ELSEWHERE.

MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE
BALANCE OF TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTHWEST OF THE CITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A COASTAL
FLOODING STATEMENT FOR SPOTS ALONG WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF TOUCHING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS
WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORE OF LONG ISLAND NOW THAT THE WINDS
HAVE BEEN NORTHERLY FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MPS
NEAR TERM...JC/24/MPS
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET/PW
MARINE...24/MPS
HYDROLOGY...24/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC











000
FXUS61 KOKX 231112
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
712 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK WILL DEEPEN AND MEANDER IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY TODAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT MEANDERS S
OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT
AROUND THE LOW TODAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL...BUT CONFINED IT TO THE AREA
ACROSS EASTERN LI FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING.

NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.

NAM MOS TEMPS LOOKED TOO COOL AND WERE DISCOUNTED. SO A BLEND OF
THE MAV/ECS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND TO AROUND 60 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES
TONIGHT...TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THINGS WILL
BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM W TO E THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING POPS.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRI WITH PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE
IN THE DAY FRI.

WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRI. CHILLY TONIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. A BIT WARMER ON
FRI GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY
BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.

THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE...AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF
H5 SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. STRONG NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK AND
THEN DEPARTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE
AND TEMPS WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOMETIME LATE IN THE
NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT WILL MEANDER TODAY BEFORE
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH BRIEF VFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF
RAIN IS FORECAST...AND WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS RAIN BANDS MOVE
FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE LOW.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO LOW END VFR...3 TO 5
KFT...LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERN TERMINALS THOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO LOWER CEILINGS A LITTLE LONGER. THEN GENERALLY EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS TONIGHT.

WINDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. SPEEDS 15
TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...EXCEPT NYC AND COASTAL
TERMINALS. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT OVERNIGHT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY MVFR CEILINGS.
NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR IN BRIEF SHOWERS.
W WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE S OF MONTAUK WILL MEANDER IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY
TODAY...THEN TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS
HAVE FALLEN BELOW GALE FORCE LEVELS ON THE NON-OCEAN
WATERS...THEREFORE HAVE DOWNGRADED THESE ZONES TO AN SCA IN EFFECT
THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE OCEAN WATERS.

SCA GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN AFTER GALES SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL LINGER INTO FRI AFTN. SUB
ADVSY CONDS ELSEWHERE.

MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...THEN TAPER OFF FROM W TO E. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
THROUGH TONIGHT RANGE FROM 1/3 INCH FROM THE NYC METRO TO 2/3 INCH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A FEW TIDAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND
THOSE BORDERING WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND TOUCHED OR SLIGHTLY
EXCEEDED THEIR MINOR BENCHMARKS LAST EVENING. KINGS POINT
EXPERIENCED A ROUGE TIDAL SURGE OF 3 1/2 FT SHORTLY AFTER HIGH TIDE
WHEN THE WINDS PEAKED AROUND 40KT ON THE SOUND. THIS RESULTED IN
THE TOTAL WATER LEVEL TO REACH 10.2 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT.

ALTHOUGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE AROUND 1/2 TO 3/4 OF A FOOT
HIGHER WITH THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AND ARE BACKING TO THE NW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST LOCATIONS BELOW THEIR MINOR FLOODING BENCHMARKS. ITS A
CLOSE CALL THOUGH...AND A FEW PLACES MAY TOUCH AGAIN...THEREFORE
WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 FT IN THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
AND 1 TO 1 1/4 FT IN WESTERN LI SOUND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MPS
NEAR TERM...24/MPS
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...24/MPS
HYDROLOGY...24/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...











000
FXUS61 KOKX 231017
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
617 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK WILL DEEPEN AND MEANDER IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY TODAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINDS HAVE FINALLY FALLEN BELOW ADVSY LEVELS IN SUFFOLK COUNTY AND
COASTAL CT...THEREFORE HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVSY TO EXPIRE AT 6
AM. GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THEY
WON`T BE AS STRONG AS LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT MEANDERS S
OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT AROUND
THE LOW TODAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY. CAN`T RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL...BUT CONFINED IT TO THE AREA ACROSS
EASTERN LI EARLY THIS MORNING.

NAM MOS TEMPS LOOKED TOO COOL AND WERE DISCOUNTED. SO A BLEND OF
THE MAV/ECS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND TO AROUND 60 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES
TONIGHT...TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THINGS WILL
BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM W TO E THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING POPS.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRI WITH PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE
IN THE DAY FRI.

WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRI. CHILLY TONIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. A BIT WARMER ON
FRI GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY
BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.

THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE...AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF
H5 SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. STRONG NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK AND
THEN DEPARTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE
AND TEMPS WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOMETIME LATE IN THE
NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TODAY...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH BRIEF VFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF
RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...AND WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS RAIN BANDS
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE LOW. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ISOLATED AND ARE NOT INCLUDED
IN TERMINAL FORECASTS.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO LOW END VFR...3 TO 5
KFT...THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERN TERMINALS THOUGH WILL HANG ONTO
LOWER CEILINGS A LITTLE LONGER. THEN GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CEILINGS
THIS EVENING.

WINDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. SPEEDS 15
TO 25 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SPEEDS 15
TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...EXCEPT NYC AND COASTAL TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TODAY.
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN
TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TODAY.
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN
TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TODAY.
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN
TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AND NYC
TERMINALS.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY MVFR. NW WINDS
G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR IN SHOWERS.
W WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE S OF MONTAUK WILL MEANDER IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY
TODAY...THEN TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS
HAVE FALLEN BELOW GALE FORCE LEVELS ON THE NON-OCEAN
WATERS...THEREFORE HAVE DOWNGRADED THESE ZONES TO AN SCA IN EFFECT
THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE OCEAN WATERS.

SCA GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN AFTER GALES SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL LINGER INTO FRI AFTN. SUB
ADVSY CONDS ELSEWHERE.

MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...THEN TAPER OFF FROM W TO E. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
THROUGH TONIGHT RANGE FROM 1/3 INCH FROM THE NYC METRO TO 2/3 INCH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A FEW TIDAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND
THOSE BORDERING WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND TOUCHED OR SLIGHTLY
EXCEEDED THEIR MINOR BENCHMARKS LAST EVENING. KINGS POINT
EXPERIENCED A ROUGE TIDAL SURGE OF 3 1/2 FT SHORTLY AFTER HIGH TIDE
WHEN THE WINDS PEAKED AROUND 40KT ON THE SOUND. THIS RESULTED IN
THE TOTAL WATER LEVEL TO REACH 10.2 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT.

ALTHOUGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE AROUND 1/2 TO 3/4 OF A FOOT
HIGHER WITH THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AND ARE BACKING TO THE NW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST LOCATIONS BELOW THEIR MINOR FLOODING BENCHMARKS. ITS A
CLOSE CALL THOUGH...AND A FEW PLACES MAY TOUCH AGAIN...THEREFORE
WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 FT IN THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
AND 1 TO 1 1/4 FT IN WESTERN LI SOUND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KOKX 231017
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
617 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK WILL DEEPEN AND MEANDER IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY TODAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINDS HAVE FINALLY FALLEN BELOW ADVSY LEVELS IN SUFFOLK COUNTY AND
COASTAL CT...THEREFORE HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVSY TO EXPIRE AT 6
AM. GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THEY
WON`T BE AS STRONG AS LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT MEANDERS S
OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT AROUND
THE LOW TODAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY. CAN`T RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL...BUT CONFINED IT TO THE AREA ACROSS
EASTERN LI EARLY THIS MORNING.

NAM MOS TEMPS LOOKED TOO COOL AND WERE DISCOUNTED. SO A BLEND OF
THE MAV/ECS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND TO AROUND 60 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES
TONIGHT...TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THINGS WILL
BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM W TO E THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING POPS.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRI WITH PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE
IN THE DAY FRI.

WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRI. CHILLY TONIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. A BIT WARMER ON
FRI GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY
BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.

THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE...AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF
H5 SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. STRONG NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK AND
THEN DEPARTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE
AND TEMPS WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOMETIME LATE IN THE
NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TODAY...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH BRIEF VFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF
RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...AND WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS RAIN BANDS
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE LOW. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ISOLATED AND ARE NOT INCLUDED
IN TERMINAL FORECASTS.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO LOW END VFR...3 TO 5
KFT...THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERN TERMINALS THOUGH WILL HANG ONTO
LOWER CEILINGS A LITTLE LONGER. THEN GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CEILINGS
THIS EVENING.

WINDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. SPEEDS 15
TO 25 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SPEEDS 15
TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...EXCEPT NYC AND COASTAL TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TODAY.
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN
TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TODAY.
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN
TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TODAY.
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN
TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AND NYC
TERMINALS.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY MVFR. NW WINDS
G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR IN SHOWERS.
W WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE S OF MONTAUK WILL MEANDER IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY
TODAY...THEN TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS
HAVE FALLEN BELOW GALE FORCE LEVELS ON THE NON-OCEAN
WATERS...THEREFORE HAVE DOWNGRADED THESE ZONES TO AN SCA IN EFFECT
THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE OCEAN WATERS.

SCA GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN AFTER GALES SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL LINGER INTO FRI AFTN. SUB
ADVSY CONDS ELSEWHERE.

MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...THEN TAPER OFF FROM W TO E. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
THROUGH TONIGHT RANGE FROM 1/3 INCH FROM THE NYC METRO TO 2/3 INCH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A FEW TIDAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND
THOSE BORDERING WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND TOUCHED OR SLIGHTLY
EXCEEDED THEIR MINOR BENCHMARKS LAST EVENING. KINGS POINT
EXPERIENCED A ROUGE TIDAL SURGE OF 3 1/2 FT SHORTLY AFTER HIGH TIDE
WHEN THE WINDS PEAKED AROUND 40KT ON THE SOUND. THIS RESULTED IN
THE TOTAL WATER LEVEL TO REACH 10.2 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT.

ALTHOUGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE AROUND 1/2 TO 3/4 OF A FOOT
HIGHER WITH THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AND ARE BACKING TO THE NW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST LOCATIONS BELOW THEIR MINOR FLOODING BENCHMARKS. ITS A
CLOSE CALL THOUGH...AND A FEW PLACES MAY TOUCH AGAIN...THEREFORE
WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 FT IN THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
AND 1 TO 1 1/4 FT IN WESTERN LI SOUND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KOKX 230829
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
429 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK WILL DEEPEN AND MEANDER IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY TODAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINDS STILL GUSTING AT OR CLOSE TO ADVSY CRITERIA IN SUFFOLK AND
COASTAL CT FROM NEW HAVEN E SO WILL KEEP ADVSY GOING THROUGH 10Z.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT MEANDERS S
OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT AROUND
THE LOW TODAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY. CAN`T RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL...BUT CONFINED IT TO THE AREA ACROSS
EASTERN LI EARLY THIS MORNING.

GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THEY
WON`T BE AS STRONG AS LAST EVENING. GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS 30-40 MPH. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING.

NAM MOS TEMPS LOOKED TOO LOW AND WERE DISCOUNTED. SO A BLEND OF
THE MAV/ECS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND TO AROUND 60 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES
TONIGHT...TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THINGS WILL
BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM W TO E THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING POPS.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRI WITH PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE
IN THE DAY FRI.

WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRI. CHILLY TONIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. A BIT WARMER ON
FRI GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY
BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.

THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE...AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF
H5 SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. STRONG NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK AND
THEN DEPARTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE
AND TEMPS WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOMETIME LATE IN THE
NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TODAY...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH BRIEF VFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF
RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...AND WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS RAIN BANDS
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE LOW. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ISOLATED AND ARE NOT INCLUDED
IN TERMINAL FORECASTS.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO LOW END VFR...3 TO 5
KFT...THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERN TERMINALS THOUGH WILL HANG ONTO
LOWER CEILINGS A LITTLE LONGER. THEN GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CEILINGS
THIS EVENING.

WINDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. SPEEDS 15
TO 25 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SPEEDS 15
TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...EXCEPT NYC AND COASTAL TERMINALS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TODAY.
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN
TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TODAY.
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN
TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TODAY.
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN
TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AND NYC
TERMINALS.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY MVFR. NW WINDS
G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR IN SHOWERS.
W WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE S OF MONTAUK WILL MEANDER IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY
TODAY...THEN TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. GALE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM FOR THE SOUND...HARBOR AND
BAYS...AND THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.

SCA LEVEL GUSTS THEN EXPECTED ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS ONCE GALES
SUBSIDE AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. SUB-
ADVSY CONDS THEN EXPECTED ON FRI.

SCA GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN AFTER GALES SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL LINGER INTO FRI AFTN.

MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...THEN TAPER OFF FROM W TO E. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
THROUGH TONIGHT RANGE FROM 1/3 INCH FROM THE NYC METRO TO 2/3
INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A FEW TIDAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND
THOSE BORDERING WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND TOUCHED OR SLIGHTLY
EXCEEDED THEIR MINOR BENCHMARKS LAST EVENING. KINGS POINT
EXPERIENCED A ROUGE TIDAL SURGE OF 3 1/2 FT SHORTLY AFTER HIGH TIDE
AFTER THE WINDS PEAKED AROUND 40KT ON THE SOUND. THIS RESULTED IN
THE TOTAL WATER LEVEL TO REACH 10.2 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT.

ALTHOUGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE AROUND 1/2 TO 3/4 OF A FOOT
HIGHER WITH THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AND ARE BACKING TO THE NW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST LOCATIONS BELOW THEIR MINOR FLOODING BENCHMARKS. ITS A
CLOSE CALL THOUGH...AND A FEW PLACES MAY TOUCH AGAIN...THEREFORE
WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CTZ010>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ078>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KOKX 230548
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
148 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK WILL DEEPEN AND MEANDER IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY TODAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
05Z OBS STILL INDICATING SEVERAL LOCATIONS GUSTING AT OR CLOSE TO
WIND ADVSY CRITERIA...THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVSY FOR
SUFFOLK AND COASTAL CT FROM NEW HAVEN EAST UNTIL 6AM AND HAVE
REFLECTED THIS IN THE WIND GRIDS. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY
AND TRENDS. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND MEANDER S OF LONG
ISLAND TONIGHT. BANDS OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT AROUND
THE CLOSED LOW TONIGHT AS IT DEEPENS. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
FLUCTUATE MUCH WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...AND NO CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS...REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS CLOSED OFF AND BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES AND
MOVES A LITTLE QUICKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN INTO FRIDAY. BANDS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SLOWLY LOWERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST.
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND LOW INTENSITY AND
A BLEND WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES
WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEAST CANADA DURING THE
WEEKEND.

SO ESSENTIALLY...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE REGION
WITH MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DELIVER ANOTHER COOL AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. IT EVEN
APPEARS THERE COULD BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE.
THE AIR MASS MODERATES TO WARMER THAN NORMAL ON AVERAGE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATE NEXT WEDNESDAY.

QUITE A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE IT COULD VERY WELL MOVE
THROUGH DRY WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCES.
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SHOWN AND DESPITE THE LACK OF
MOISTURE...THE SHORTWAVE AND VORTICITY ADVECTION IS LARGE SATURDAY
NIGHT SO THIS COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE CONVECTION BUT WITH
INSTABILITY OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...LEFT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TODAY...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH BRIEF VFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF
RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...AND WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS THEY MOVE
FROM EAST TO WEST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER AS THIS STORM HAS
BEEN RATHER IMPRESSIVE. TIMING ANY STORMS THOUGH IS TOUGH...AND
CANNOT BE INCLUDED IN TAFS. PLEASE REFER TO TERMINAL FORECAST
AMENDMENTS FOR SPECIFICS.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO LOW END VFR...3 TO 5
KFT...THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERN TERMINALS THOUGH WILL HANG ONTO
LOWER CEILINGS A LITTLE LONGER. THEN GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CEILINGS
THIS EVENING.

WINDS REMAINS QUITE STRONG FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. SPEEDS 15
TO 25 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KT. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND REMAINS GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SPEEDS 15
TO 25 KTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT NYC AND COASTAL TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AND NYC
TERMINALS.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY MVFR. NW WINDS
G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR IN SHOWERS.
W WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE S OF MONTAUK WILL MEANDER IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY
TODAY...THEN TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. GALE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS...AND FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THU AFTERNOON.

SCA LEVEL GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS TODAY. AS THE
LOW PULLS NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE WIND WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SCA LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY.
OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT.

STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
WATERS. THESE WILL LOWER TO BELOW SCA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BUT WILL TREND BACK UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GALES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THESE LOWER BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN FROM WEST
TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WILL TOTAL FROM AROUND AROUND 1/2 INCH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY TO 1 1/4 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CTZ010>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ078>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KOKX 230254
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1054 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIME BY LATE FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATES IN CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST FROM OFF THE DELMARVA TONIGHT. LATEST SAT WV IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY SLOT PUNCHING IN TOWARD MONTAUK HELPING TO ENHANCE MID
LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY...WITH LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS
WITH GRAVITY WAVE LIKE APPEARANCE S OF MONTAUK AND MOVING NW
TOWARD THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. CONVECTION IS ELEVATED
BUT DUCTING OF GRAVITY WAVE ENERGY JUST N OF THE APPROACHING
OCCLUDED FRONT COULD ALLOW VERY STRONG WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE
THERE...AND WE ARE MONITORING RADAR FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WARNING
ISSUANCE.

ELSEWHERE...BANDS OF LIGHT./MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW TONIGHT AS IT DEEPENS AND PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FLUCTUATE MUCH WITH THE RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER...AND NO CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS...REMAINING MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS CLOSED OFF AND BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES AND
MOVES A LITTLE QUICKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN INTO FRIDAY. BANDS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SLOWLY LOWERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST.
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND LOW INTENSITY AND
A BLEND WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES
WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEAST CANADA DURING THE
WEEKEND.

SO ESSENTIALLY...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE REGION
WITH MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DELIVER ANOTHER COOL AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. IT EVEN
APPEARS THERE COULD BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE.
THE AIR MASS MODERATES TO WARMER THAN NORMAL ON AVERAGE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATE NEXT WEDNESDAY.

QUITE A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE IT COULD VERY WELL MOVE
THROUGH DRY WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCES.
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SHOWN AND DESPITE THE LACK OF
MOISTURE...THE SHORTWAVE AND VORTICITY ADVECTION IS LARGE SATURDAY
NIGHT SO THIS COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE CONVECTION BUT WITH
INSTABILITY OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...LEFT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH...THEN EAST OF LONG
ISLAND INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...VARIABLE TO VFR
IN PLACES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED POCKETS IFR POSSIBLE
IN HEAVY RAINFALL INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN IFR
OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND ITS DURATION IS TOO LOW TO
REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. POCKETS OF VFR POSSIBLE BY MID-LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS ALSO NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE AT EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO
REFLECT IN TAFS...OUTSIDE OF AMENDMENTS.

WINDS SLOWLY BACK FROM NNE TO NNW-NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GENERALLY HAVE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND 25-30KT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE AT EASTERN AND COASTAL TERMINALS. PEAK GUSTS COULD BE AS
MUCH AS 10KT HIGHER AS THOSE FORECAST IN THE TAF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RA. NW
WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL/CITY TERMINALS.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY MVFR. NW WINDS
G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR. W WINDS G20-25KT
POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR. NW WINDS
G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY...
REACHING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY EVENING. LATEST SFC OBS
INDICATE WINDS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST...AND THE 18Z NAM AND
OTHER HI-RES MODELS ARE CAPTURING THE SITUATION WELL....INCLUDING
BRIEF EPISODE OF WINDS NEAR 50 KT OVER THE FAR ERN OCEAN WATERS
THIS EVENING. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
ALL WATERS...AND FOR THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THU AFTERNOON.

SCA LEVEL GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS ON THU. AS THE
LOW PULLS NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE WIND WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SCA LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY.
OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT.

STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
WATERS. THESE WILL LOWER TO BELOW SCA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BUT WILL TREND BACK UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GALES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THESE LOWER BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN FROM WEST
TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WILL TOTAL FROM AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEW JERSEY TO 1 1/4 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ010>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ078>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/JM
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET/JM
HYDROLOGY...MET/JM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 230040
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
840 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIME BY LATE FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATES IN CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST FROM OFF THE DELMARVA TONIGHT. LATEST SAT WV IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY SLOT PUNCHING IN TOWARD MONTAUK HELPING TO ENHANCE MID
LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY...WITH LINE OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS
WITH GRAVITY WAVE LIKE APPEARANCE S OF MONTAUK AND MOVING NW
TOWARD THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. CONVECTION IS ELEVATED
BUT DUCTING OF GRAVITY WAVE ENERGY JUST N OF THE APPROACHING
OCCLUDED FRONT COULD ALLOW VERY STRONG WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE
THERE...AND WE ARE MONITORING RADAR FOR POSSIBLE SVR TSTM WARNING
ISSUANCES.

ELSEWHERE...BANDS OF LIGHT./MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW TONIGHT AS IT DEEPENS AND PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FLUCTUATE MUCH WITH THE RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER...AND NO CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS...REMAINING MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS CLOSED OFF AND BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES AND
MOVES A LITTLE QUICKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN INTO FRIDAY. BANDS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SLOWLY LOWERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST.
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND LOW INTENSITY AND
A BLEND WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES
WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEAST CANADA DURING THE
WEEKEND.

SO ESSENTIALLY...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE REGION
WITH MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DELIVER ANOTHER COOL AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. IT EVEN
APPEARS THERE COULD BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE.
THE AIR MASS MODERATES TO WARMER THAN NORMAL ON AVERAGE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATE NEXT WEDNESDAY.

QUITE A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE IT COULD VERY WELL MOVE
THROUGH DRY WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCES.
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SHOWN AND DESPITE THE LACK OF
MOISTURE...THE SHORTWAVE AND VORTICITY ADVECTION IS LARGE SATURDAY
NIGHT SO THIS COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE CONVECTION BUT WITH
INSTABILITY OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...LEFT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH...THEN EAST OF LONG
ISLAND INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED POCKETS
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN IFR OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND ITS
DURATION IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. POCKETS OF
VFR POSSIBLE BY MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IN THIS IS ALSO NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

WINDS SLOWLY BACK FROM NNE TO NNW-NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STRONGER WINDS/GUSTS INITIALLY NEAR SOUTH SHORES OF CT/LONG
ISLAND/NYC TO GET STARTED. DO EXPECT WINDS AT OTHER TERMINALS TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING. GENERALLY HAVE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND 25-30KT
INTO AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PEAK GUSTS COULD
BE AS MUCH AS 10KT HIGHER AS THOSE FORECAST IN THE TAF.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RA. NW
WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL/CITY TERMINALS.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY MVFR. NW WINDS
G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR. W WINDS G20-25KT
POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR. NW WINDS
G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY...
REACHING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY EVENING. LATEST SFC OBS
INDICATE WINDS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST...AND THE 18Z NAM AND
OTHER HI-RES MODELS ARE CAPTURING THE SITUATION WELL....INCLUDING
BRIEF EPISODE OF WINDS NEAR 50 KT OVER THE FAR ERN OCEAN WATERS
THIS EVENING. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
ALL WATERS...AND FOR THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THU AFTERNOON.

SCA LEVEL GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS ON THU. AS THE
LOW PULLS NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE WIND WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SCA LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY.
OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT.

STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
WATERS. THESE WILL LOWER TO BELOW SCA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BUT WILL TREND BACK UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GALES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THESE LOWER BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN FROM WEST
TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WILL TOTAL FROM AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEW JERSEY TO 1 1/4 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/JM
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET/JM
HYDROLOGY...MET/JM










000
FXUS61 KOKX 230040
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
840 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIME BY LATE FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATES IN CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST FROM OFF THE DELMARVA TONIGHT. LATEST SAT WV IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY SLOT PUNCHING IN TOWARD MONTAUK HELPING TO ENHANCE MID
LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY...WITH LINE OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS
WITH GRAVITY WAVE LIKE APPEARANCE S OF MONTAUK AND MOVING NW
TOWARD THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. CONVECTION IS ELEVATED
BUT DUCTING OF GRAVITY WAVE ENERGY JUST N OF THE APPROACHING
OCCLUDED FRONT COULD ALLOW VERY STRONG WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE
THERE...AND WE ARE MONITORING RADAR FOR POSSIBLE SVR TSTM WARNING
ISSUANCES.

ELSEWHERE...BANDS OF LIGHT./MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW TONIGHT AS IT DEEPENS AND PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FLUCTUATE MUCH WITH THE RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER...AND NO CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS...REMAINING MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS CLOSED OFF AND BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES AND
MOVES A LITTLE QUICKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN INTO FRIDAY. BANDS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SLOWLY LOWERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST.
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND LOW INTENSITY AND
A BLEND WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES
WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEAST CANADA DURING THE
WEEKEND.

SO ESSENTIALLY...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE REGION
WITH MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DELIVER ANOTHER COOL AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. IT EVEN
APPEARS THERE COULD BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE.
THE AIR MASS MODERATES TO WARMER THAN NORMAL ON AVERAGE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATE NEXT WEDNESDAY.

QUITE A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE IT COULD VERY WELL MOVE
THROUGH DRY WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCES.
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SHOWN AND DESPITE THE LACK OF
MOISTURE...THE SHORTWAVE AND VORTICITY ADVECTION IS LARGE SATURDAY
NIGHT SO THIS COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE CONVECTION BUT WITH
INSTABILITY OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...LEFT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH...THEN EAST OF LONG
ISLAND INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED POCKETS
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN IFR OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND ITS
DURATION IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. POCKETS OF
VFR POSSIBLE BY MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IN THIS IS ALSO NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

WINDS SLOWLY BACK FROM NNE TO NNW-NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STRONGER WINDS/GUSTS INITIALLY NEAR SOUTH SHORES OF CT/LONG
ISLAND/NYC TO GET STARTED. DO EXPECT WINDS AT OTHER TERMINALS TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING. GENERALLY HAVE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND 25-30KT
INTO AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PEAK GUSTS COULD
BE AS MUCH AS 10KT HIGHER AS THOSE FORECAST IN THE TAF.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RA. NW
WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL/CITY TERMINALS.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY MVFR. NW WINDS
G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR. W WINDS G20-25KT
POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR. NW WINDS
G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY...
REACHING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY EVENING. LATEST SFC OBS
INDICATE WINDS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST...AND THE 18Z NAM AND
OTHER HI-RES MODELS ARE CAPTURING THE SITUATION WELL....INCLUDING
BRIEF EPISODE OF WINDS NEAR 50 KT OVER THE FAR ERN OCEAN WATERS
THIS EVENING. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
ALL WATERS...AND FOR THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THU AFTERNOON.

SCA LEVEL GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS ON THU. AS THE
LOW PULLS NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE WIND WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SCA LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY.
OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT.

STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
WATERS. THESE WILL LOWER TO BELOW SCA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BUT WILL TREND BACK UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GALES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THESE LOWER BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN FROM WEST
TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WILL TOTAL FROM AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEW JERSEY TO 1 1/4 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/JM
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET/JM
HYDROLOGY...MET/JM










000
FXUS61 KOKX 222011
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
411 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIME BY LATE FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATES IN CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST FROM OFF THE DELMARVA TONIGHT. WITH THE SYSTEM NEARLY
STACKED THE SURFACE LOW ALSO OFF THE DELMARVA WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL BE
INCREASING POPS FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE EVENING. LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FLUCTUATE MUCH WITH THE RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER...AND NO CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES FALL OFF
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS CLOSED OFF AND BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES AND
MOVES A LITTLE QUICKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN INTO FRIDAY. BANDS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SLOWLY LOWERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST.
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND LOW INTENSITY AND
A BLEND WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES
WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEAST CANADA DURING THE
WEEKEND.

SO ESSENTIALLY...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE REGION
WITH MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DELIVER ANOTHER COOL AIRMASS ON SUNDAY. IT EVEN
APPEARS THERE COULD BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE.
THE AIRMASS MODERATES TO WARMER THAN NORMAL ON AVERAGE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATE NEXT WEDNESDAY.

QUITE A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE IT COULD VERY WELL MOVE
THROUGH DRY WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCES.
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SHOWN AND DESPITE THE LACK OF
MOISTURE...THE SHORTWAVE AND VORTICITY ADVECTION IS LARGE SATURDAY
NIGHT SO THIS COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE CONVECTION BUT WITH
INSTABILITY OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...LEFT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS TODAY...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT. A
FEW SPOTS HAVE SEEN IMPROVEMENT TO 2 TO 3 KFT.

MORE ORGANIZED RAIN IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 12-16KT WITH GUSTS INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20 KT RANGE. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR WIND GUST
TIMING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR STRONGER
WIND GUST TIMING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WINDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY
MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR...NW-W WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA AT MID AFTERNOON...AND
WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...REACHING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS WITH GALE GUSTS CONTINUING ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS
SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. AS THE LOW PULLS NORTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH
SMALL CRAFT GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
WATERS. THESE WILL LOWER TO BELOW SCA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BUT WILL TREND BACK UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GALES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THESE LOWER BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN FROM WEST
TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WILL TOTAL FROM AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEW JERSEY TO 1 1/4 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET








000
FXUS61 KOKX 221756
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
156 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAXES ROTATING THROUGH THE LOW WERE
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE NORTHERN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS WEAKENING
AND MOVING SOUTH WHILE SHOWERS WERE ROTATING NORTH INTO EASTERN
LONG. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CURRENT TRENDS WITH THE LOW. CLOUDS PERSIST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEARLY STEADY...AND DEW POINTS REMAIN CLOSE TO FORECAST.

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AS
TRACKS TOWARDS THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK THIS AFTN. THE NAM IS THE
FURTHEST N TODAY AND BECOMES THE FURTHEST W AND SLOWEST TO DEPART
ON THU.

HIGHS TODAY WERE A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED TONIGHT AND FRI AS IT
MEANDERS NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK. BEST CHC`S OF RAIN WILL BE
DURING THIS TIME. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BAND PUSHES FROM
E TO W OVERNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS IN THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER VORT
MAX PRODUCING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THU AFTN. THEREFORE HAVE LIKELY
TO CAT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

STRONG NLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVE...THEN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AND THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE LOW
NEARBY. IT WILL STILL REMAIN GUSTY HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH NOT AS
STRONG AS THIS AFTN AND EVE.

TEMPS TONIGHT AND THU WERE A BLEND OF THE MAV/ECS AS THE NAM
LOOKED TOO COLD WITH CLOUD COVER AND PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW APPROXIMATELY 130 MILES SE OF MONTAUK
POINT THURSDAY EVENING MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF NYC
AS UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO DEPART.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY BEFORE SAGGING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THAT FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THINK
MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH DRY...BUT THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF INDICATING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDS ON TAP FOR THE START OF
THE NEW WEEK...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON FRIDAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE
LOWER 60S...AND THEN WILL WARM UP SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S. BEHIND COLD FRONT...TEMPS DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY...AND THEN TEMPS WILL BE MILDER FOR THE START
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS TODAY...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO 2 TO
3 KFT THIS AFTERNOON.

MORE ORGANIZED RAIN MAY APPROACH FROM THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 12-16KT WITH GUSTS INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20 KT RANGE. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR WIND GUST
TIMING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR STRONGER
WIND GUST TIMING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WINDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY
MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR...NW-W WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS FORECAST ON TRACK. POPS ACROSS THE WATERS ADJUSTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW MOVING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

A GALE WARNING FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 18Z THIS AFTN THROUGH
10Z TONIGHT REMAINS IN EFFECT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW OFFSHORE AND BELIEVE FREQ 35 KT GUSTS WILL
RESULT. THE GALE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO ERN LI SOUND
AND BAYS...JUST DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE IN FRQ 35 KT GUSTS
HERE. NO CHANGES TO THE SCA ON REMAINING WATERS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE DAY THU.

GUSTY N-NW FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...CONDS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CONDS AND SUB-SCA CONDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN NW
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT ON SUNDAY WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...AND TRANQUIL CONDS WILL RETURN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING DUE TO A BACKBUILDING STORM OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT S AND E THIS MORNING
WITH SCT ACTIVITY LIKELY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 3/4 ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS TO 1 1/2 INCHES IN EASTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THU EVE.

MAINLY EXPECT NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AFTER THE ACTIVITY ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING.

LIGHT PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ABOUT
1/10 INCH OF ADDITIONAL QPF.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MPS
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...24/MPS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 221756
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
156 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAXES ROTATING THROUGH THE LOW WERE
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE NORTHERN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS WEAKENING
AND MOVING SOUTH WHILE SHOWERS WERE ROTATING NORTH INTO EASTERN
LONG. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CURRENT TRENDS WITH THE LOW. CLOUDS PERSIST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEARLY STEADY...AND DEW POINTS REMAIN CLOSE TO FORECAST.

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AS
TRACKS TOWARDS THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK THIS AFTN. THE NAM IS THE
FURTHEST N TODAY AND BECOMES THE FURTHEST W AND SLOWEST TO DEPART
ON THU.

HIGHS TODAY WERE A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED TONIGHT AND FRI AS IT
MEANDERS NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK. BEST CHC`S OF RAIN WILL BE
DURING THIS TIME. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BAND PUSHES FROM
E TO W OVERNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS IN THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER VORT
MAX PRODUCING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THU AFTN. THEREFORE HAVE LIKELY
TO CAT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

STRONG NLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVE...THEN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AND THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE LOW
NEARBY. IT WILL STILL REMAIN GUSTY HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH NOT AS
STRONG AS THIS AFTN AND EVE.

TEMPS TONIGHT AND THU WERE A BLEND OF THE MAV/ECS AS THE NAM
LOOKED TOO COLD WITH CLOUD COVER AND PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW APPROXIMATELY 130 MILES SE OF MONTAUK
POINT THURSDAY EVENING MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF NYC
AS UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO DEPART.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY BEFORE SAGGING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THAT FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THINK
MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH DRY...BUT THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF INDICATING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDS ON TAP FOR THE START OF
THE NEW WEEK...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON FRIDAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE
LOWER 60S...AND THEN WILL WARM UP SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S. BEHIND COLD FRONT...TEMPS DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY...AND THEN TEMPS WILL BE MILDER FOR THE START
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS TODAY...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO 2 TO
3 KFT THIS AFTERNOON.

MORE ORGANIZED RAIN MAY APPROACH FROM THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 12-16KT WITH GUSTS INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20 KT RANGE. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR WIND GUST
TIMING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR STRONGER
WIND GUST TIMING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WINDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY
MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR...NW-W WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS FORECAST ON TRACK. POPS ACROSS THE WATERS ADJUSTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW MOVING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

A GALE WARNING FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 18Z THIS AFTN THROUGH
10Z TONIGHT REMAINS IN EFFECT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW OFFSHORE AND BELIEVE FREQ 35 KT GUSTS WILL
RESULT. THE GALE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO ERN LI SOUND
AND BAYS...JUST DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE IN FRQ 35 KT GUSTS
HERE. NO CHANGES TO THE SCA ON REMAINING WATERS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE DAY THU.

GUSTY N-NW FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...CONDS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CONDS AND SUB-SCA CONDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN NW
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT ON SUNDAY WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...AND TRANQUIL CONDS WILL RETURN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING DUE TO A BACKBUILDING STORM OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT S AND E THIS MORNING
WITH SCT ACTIVITY LIKELY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 3/4 ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS TO 1 1/2 INCHES IN EASTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THU EVE.

MAINLY EXPECT NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AFTER THE ACTIVITY ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING.

LIGHT PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ABOUT
1/10 INCH OF ADDITIONAL QPF.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MPS
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...24/MPS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 221452
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1052 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAXES ROTATING THROUGH THE LOW WERE
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE NORTHERN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS WEAKENING
AND MOVING SOUTH WHILE SHOWERS WERE ROTATING NORTH INTO EASTERN
LONG. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CURRENT TRENDS WITH THE LOW. CLOUDS PERSIST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEARLY STEADY...AND DEW POINTS REMAIN CLOSE TO FORECAST.

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AS
TRACKS TOWARDS THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK THIS AFTN. THE NAM IS THE
FURTHEST N TODAY AND BECOMES THE FURTHEST W AND SLOWEST TO DEPART
ON THU.

HIGHS TODAY WERE A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED TONIGHT AND FRI AS IT
MEANDERS NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK. BEST CHC`S OF RAIN WILL BE
DURING THIS TIME. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BAND PUSHES FROM
E TO W OVERNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS IN THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER VORT
MAX PRODUCING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THU AFTN. THEREFORE HAVE LIKELY
TO CAT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

STRONG NLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVE...THEN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AND THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE LOW
NEARBY. IT WILL STILL REMAIN GUSTY HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH NOT AS
STRONG AS THIS AFTN AND EVE.

TEMPS TONIGHT AND THU WERE A BLEND OF THE MAV/ECS AS THE NAM
LOOKED TOO COLD WITH CLOUD COVER AND PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW APPROXIMATELY 130 MILES SE OF MONTAUK
POINT THURSDAY EVENING MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF NYC
AS UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO DEPART.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY BEFORE SAGGING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THAT FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THINK
MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH DRY...BUT THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF INDICATING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDS ON TAP FOR THE START OF
THE NEW WEEK...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON FRIDAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE
LOWER 60S...AND THEN WILL WARM UP SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S. BEHIND COLD FRONT...TEMPS DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY...AND THEN TEMPS WILL BE MILDER FOR THE START
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

PERSISTENT CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESSION.

EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS TODAY...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT
POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO 2 TO 3 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT FORESEE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS UNDER 3 MILES...UNLESS ANY AIRPORT
EXPERIENCES LOCAL HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME.

DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION...EXPECT
HIT OR MISS SHOWERS TODAY MOVING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE DAY.

MORE ORGANIZED RAIN MAY APPROACH FROM THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS ARE INCREASING THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KTS. GUSTS BECOME
FREQUENT AFTER 14-16Z. GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT EXPECTED.

THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING...THEN DUE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR WIND GUST
TIMING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY.


KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR STRONGER
WIND GUST TIMING.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WINDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN
PERIODS OF RA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY
MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS FORECAST ON TRACK. POPS ACROSS THE WATERS ADJUSTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW MOVINF EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

A GALE WARNING FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 18Z THIS AFTN THROUGH
10Z TONIGHT REMAINS IN EFFECT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW OFFSHORE AND BELIEVE FREQ 35 KT GUSTS WILL
RESULT. THE GALE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO ERN LI SOUND
AND BAYS...JUST DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE IN FRQ 35 KT GUSTS
HERE. NO CHANGES TO THE SCA ON REMAINING WATERS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE DAY THU.

GUSTY N-NW FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...CONDS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CONDS AND SUB-SCA CONDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN NW
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT ON SUNDAY WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...AND TRANQUIL CONDS WILL RETURN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING DUE TO A BACKBUILDING STORM OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT S AND E THIS MORNING
WITH SCT ACTIVITY LIKELY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 3/4 ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS TO 1 1/2 INCHES IN EASTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THU EVE.

MAINLY EXPECT NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AFTER THE ACTIVITY ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING.

LIGHT PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ABOUT
1/10 INCH OF ADDITIONAL QPF.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MPS
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...24/MPS











000
FXUS61 KOKX 221305
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
905 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NYC/PORTIONS OF NE
NJ/WESTERN LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING. HEAVIEST RAIN REMAINS OVER
THE OCEAN...AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

ANY TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INLAND.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL SWING TO THE S
OF LI TODAY. PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHC ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING...PIVOTING SWD AND THEN WRAPPING BACK
AROUND FROM THE SE LATE THIS AFTN. THE POP FORECAST WAS COMPRISED
ON A BLEND OF THE NAM...SREF AND SPC WRF DUE TO THE BETTER
RESOLUTION. THE WIND FORECAST HOWEVER...EXCLUDED THE NAM AS IT IS
THE WEAKEST WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THEREFORE WINDS ARE
LIKELY TOO WEAK. GFS/CMC/EC/SREF WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GRADUALLY
BACK WITH THE LOW MOVING OFFSHORE. EXPECT 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH NEAR IN THE METRO AREA.

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AS
TRACKS TOWARDS THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK THIS AFTN. THE NAM IS THE
FURTHEST N TODAY AND BECOMES THE FURTHEST W AND SLOWEST TO DEPART
ON THU.

HIGHS TODAY WERE A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED TONIGHT AND FRI AS IT
MEANDERS NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK. BEST CHC`S OF RAIN WILL BE
DURING THIS TIME. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BAND PUSHES FROM
E TO W OVERNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS IN THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER VORT
MAX PRODUCING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THU AFTN. THEREFORE HAVE LIKELY
TO CAT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

STRONG NLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVE...THEN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AND THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE LOW
NEARBY. IT WILL STILL REMAIN GUSTY HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH NOT AS
STRONG AS THIS AFTN AND EVE.

TEMPS TONIGHT AND THU WERE A BLEND OF THE MAV/ECS AS THE NAM
LOOKED TOO COLD WITH CLOUD COVER AND PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW APPROXIMATELY 130 MILES SE OF MONTAUK
POINT THURSDAY EVENING MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF NYC
AS UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO DEPART.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY BEFORE SAGGING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THAT FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THINK
MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH DRY...BUT THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF INDICATING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDS ON TAP FOR THE START OF
THE NEW WEEK...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON FRIDAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE
LOWER 60S...AND THEN WILL WARM UP SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S. BEHIND COLD FRONT...TEMPS DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY...AND THEN TEMPS WILL BE MILDER FOR THE START
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

PERSISTENT CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM NYC METRO SOUTHWARD. DO EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO SETTLE TO THE SOUTH AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS TODAY...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT
POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO 2 TO 3 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT FORESEE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS UNDER 3 MILES...UNLESS ANY AIRPORT
EXPERIENCES LOCAL HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME.

DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION...EXPECT
HIT OR MISS SHOWERS TODAY MOVING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE DAY.

MORE ORGANIZED RAIN MAY APPROACH FROM THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS ARE INCREASING THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KTS. GUSTS BECOME
FREQUENT AFTER 14-16Z. GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT EXPECTED.

THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING...THEN DUE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN CLOSE TO THE AIRPORT
THROUGH 14Z. AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR THE INITIAL
THUNDERSTORMS...AND FOR WIND GUST TIMING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY.
MORNING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AIRPORT LATER THIS MORNING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN CLOSE TO THE AIRPORT
THROUGH 14Z. AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR THE INITIAL
THUNDERSTORMS...AND FOR STRONGER WIND GUST TIMING.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AIRPORT. WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING. AMENDMENTS LIKELY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AIRPORT. WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING. AMENDMENTS LIKELY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WINDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN
PERIODS OF RA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY
MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 18Z THIS AFTN
THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW OFFSHORE AND BELIEVE FREQ 35 KT GUSTS WILL RESULT. THE
GALE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO ERN LI SOUND AND
BAYS...JUST DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE IN FRQ 35 KT GUSTS HERE.
NO CHANGES TO THE SCA ON REMAINING WATERS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
DAY THU.

GUSTY N-NW FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...CONDS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CONDS AND SUB-SCA CONDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN NW
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT ON SUNDAY WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...AND TRANQUIL CONDS WILL RETURN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING DUE TO A BACKBUILDING STORM OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT S AND E THIS MORNING
WITH SCT ACTIVITY LIKELY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 3/4 ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS TO 1 1/2 INCHES IN EASTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THU EVE.

MAINLY EXPECT NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AFTER THE ACTIVITY ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING.

LIGHT PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ABOUT
1/10 INCH OF ADDITIONAL QPF.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MPS
NEAR TERM...24/MPS/MET
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...24/MPS/DW
HYDROLOGY...24/MPS










000
FXUS61 KOKX 221132
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
732 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NYC/PORTIONS OF NE
NJ/WESTERN LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING...BUT INTENSITY HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. HEAVIEST RAIN REMAINS OVER
THE OCEAN...WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF 8-10 INCHES JUST OFFSHORE. IN
GENERAL...ABOUT 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER LAND IN THOSE
AREAS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 INCH OR SO THIS MORNING.

ANY TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INLAND.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL SWING TO THE S
OF LI TODAY. PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHC ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING...PIVOTING SWD AND THEN WRAPPING BACK
AROUND FROM THE SE LATE THIS AFTN. THE POP FORECAST WAS COMPRISED
ON A BLEND OF THE NAM...SREF AND SPC WRF DUE TO THE BETTER
RESOLUTION. THE WIND FORECAST HOWEVER...EXCLUDED THE NAM AS IT IS
THE WEAKEST WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THEREFORE WINDS ARE
LIKELY TOO WEAK. GFS/CMC/EC/SREF WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GRADUALLY
BACK WITH THE LOW MOVING OFFSHORE. EXPECT 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH NEAR IN THE METRO AREA.

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AS
TRACKS TOWARDS THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK THIS AFTN. THE NAM IS THE
FURTHEST N TODAY AND BECOMES THE FURTHEST W AND SLOWEST TO DEPART
ON THU.

HIGHS TODAY WERE A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED TONIGHT AND FRI AS IT
MEANDERS NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK. BEST CHC`S OF RAIN WILL BE
DURING THIS TIME. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BAND PUSHES FROM
E TO W OVERNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS IN THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER VORT
MAX PRODUCING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THU AFTN. THEREFORE HAVE LIKELY
TO CAT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

STRONG NLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVE...THEN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AND THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE LOW
NEARBY. IT WILL STILL REMAIN GUSTY HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH NOT AS
STRONG AS THIS AFTN AND EVE.

TEMPS TONIGHT AND THU WERE A BLEND OF THE MAV/ECS AS THE NAM
LOOKED TOO COLD WITH CLOUD COVER AND PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW APPROXIMATELY 130 MILES SE OF MONTAUK
POINT THURSDAY EVENING MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF NYC
AS UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO DEPART.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY BEFORE SAGGING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THAT FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THINK
MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH DRY...BUT THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF INDICATING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDS ON TAP FOR THE START OF
THE NEW WEEK...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON FRIDAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE
LOWER 60S...AND THEN WILL WARM UP SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S. BEHIND COLD FRONT...TEMPS DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY...AND THEN TEMPS WILL BE MILDER FOR THE START
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

PERSISTENT CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM NYC METRO SOUTHWARD. DO EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO SETTLE TO THE SOUTH AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS TODAY...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT
POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO 2 TO 3 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT FORESEE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS UNDER 3 MILES...UNLESS ANY AIRPORT
EXPERIENCES LOCAL HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME.

DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION...EXPECT
HIT OR MISS SHOWERS TODAY MOVING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE DAY.

MORE ORGANIZED RAIN MAY APPROACH FROM THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS ARE INCREASING THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KTS. GUSTS BECOME
FREQUENT AFTER 14-16Z. GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT EXPECTED.

THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING...THEN DUE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN CLOSE TO THE AIRPORT
THROUGH 14Z. AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR THE INITIAL
THUNDERSTORMS...AND FOR WIND GUST TIMING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY.
MORNING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AIRPORT LATER THIS MORNING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN CLOSE TO THE AIRPORT
THROUGH 14Z. AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR THE INITIAL
THUNDERSTORMS...AND FOR STRONGER WIND GUST TIMING.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AIRPORT. WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING. AMENDMENTS LIKELY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AIRPORT. WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING. AMENDMENTS LIKELY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WINDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN
PERIODS OF RA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY
MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 18Z THIS AFTN
THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW OFFSHORE AND BELIEVE FREQ 35 KT GUSTS WILL RESULT. THE
GALE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO ERN LI SOUND AND
BAYS...JUST DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE IN FRQ 35 KT GUSTS HERE.
NO CHANGES TO THE SCA ON REMAINING WATERS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
DAY THU.

GUSTY N-NW FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...CONDS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CONDS AND SUB-SCA CONDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN NW
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT ON SUNDAY WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...AND TRANQUIL CONDS WILL RETURN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING DUE TO A BACKBUILDING STORM OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT S AND E THIS MORNING
WITH SCT ACTIVITY LIKELY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 3/4 ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS TO 1 1/2 INCHES IN EASTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THU EVE.

MAINLY EXPECT NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AFTER THE ACTIVITY ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING.

LIGHT PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ABOUT
1/10 INCH OF ADDITIONAL QPF.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MPS
NEAR TERM...24/MPS
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...24/MPS/DW
HYDROLOGY...24/MPS












000
FXUS61 KOKX 220839
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
439 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL SWING TO THE S
OF LI TODAY. PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHC ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING...PIVOTING SWD AND THEN WRAPPING BACK
AROUND FROM THE SE LATE THIS AFTN. THE POP FORECAST WAS COMPRISED
ON A BLEND OF THE NAM...SREF AND SPC WRF DUE TO THE BETTER
RESOLUTION. THE WIND FORECAST HOWEVER...EXCLUDED THE NAM AS IT IS
THE WEAKEST WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THEREFORE WINDS ARE
LIKELY TOO WEAK. GFS/CMC/EC/SREF WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GRADUALLY BACK
WITH THE LOW MOVING OFFSHORE. EXPECT 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH NEAR IN THE METRO AREA.

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AS
TRACKS TOWARDS THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK THIS AFTN. THE NAM IS THE
FURTHEST N TODAY AND BECOMES THE FURTHEST W AND SLOWEST TO DEPART
ON THU.

TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES INLAND.

STORM JUST S OF NASSAU/QUEENS HAS BEEN BACKBUILDING OVER THE SAME
AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH LITTLE FORWARD MOVEMENT. DUAL POL
ESTIMATES STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 6 AND 9 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH
HOURLY RATES BETWEEN  2-4 INCHES. THANK GOODNESS THIS IS OVER THE
WATER!! HOWEVER...RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
IN THE VICINITY OF LONG BEACH HAS PROMPTED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING
FOR SOUTHERN QUEENS/NASSAU.

HIGHS TODAY WERE A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED TONIGHT AND FRI AS IT
MEANDERS NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK. BEST CHC`S OF RAIN WILL BE
DURING THIS TIME. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BAND PUSHES FROM
E TO W OVERNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS IN THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER VORT
MAX PRODUCING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THU AFTN. THEREFORE HAVE LIKELY
TO CAT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

STRONG NLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVE...THEN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AND THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE LOW
NEARBY. IT WILL STILL REMAIN GUSTY HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH NOT AS
STRONG AS THIS AFTN AND EVE.

TEMPS TONIGHT AND THU WERE A BLEND OF THE MAV/ECS AS THE NAM
LOOKED TOO COLD WITH CLOUD COVER AND PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW APPROXIMATELY 130 MILES SE OF MONTAUK
POINT THURSDAY EVENING MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF NYC
AS UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO DEPART.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY BEFORE SAGGING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THAT FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THINK
MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH DRY...BUT THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF INDICATING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDS ON TAP FOR THE START OF
THE NEW WEEK...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON FRIDAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE
LOWER 60S...AND THEN WILL WARM UP SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S. BEHIND COLD FRONT...TEMPS DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY...AND THEN TEMPS WILL BE MILDER FOR THE START
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY.

OVERALL TODAY...EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS...BETWEEN 1 AND 2
KFT. DO NOT FORESEE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS UNDER 4 MILES...UNLESS
ANY AIRPORT EXPERIENCES LOCAL HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME.

ON AND OFF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED. INITIAL AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING
ACROSS NYC METRO THIS MORNING. AFTER 12Z THOUGH...TIMING WILL BE
DIFFICULT. NEXT BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE EVENING.

WINDS ARE INCREASING THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KTS. GUSTS BECOME
FREQUENT AFTER 14-16Z. GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT EXPECTED.

THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING...THEN DUE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR TIMING OF WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE. ALSO...IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ANY HEAVIER
RAIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY.
ALSO...IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR TIMING OF WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE. ALSO...IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ANY HEAVIER
RAIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN
PERIODS OF RA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY
MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 18Z THIS AFTN
THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW OFFSHORE AND BELIEVE FREQ 35 KT GUSTS WILL RESULT. THE
GALE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO ERN LI SOUND AND
BAYS...JUST DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE IN FRQ 35 KT GUSTS HERE.
NO CHANGES TO THE SCA ON REMAINING WATERS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
DAY THU.

GUSTY N-NW FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...CONDS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CONDS AND SUB-SCA CONDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN NW
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT ON SUNDAY WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...AND TRANQUIL CONDS WILL RETURN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING DUE TO A BACKBUILDING STORM OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT S AND E THIS MORNING
WITH SCT ACTIVITY LIKELY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 3/4 ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS TO 1 1/2 INCHES IN EASTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THU EVE.

MAINLY EXPECT NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AFTER THE ACTIVITY ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING.

LIGHT PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ABOUT
1/10 INCH OF ADDITIONAL QPF.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KOKX 220551
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
151 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA...AND THEN WILL
MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE LOW THEN TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...THEN
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND HELP DEEPEN A SFC LOW OFF THE DELMARVA.
AT THE SAME TIME...A 1030S HI OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO EASE
TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. AS A RESULT...LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ALREADY
BACKED TO THE N ACROSS THE CWA.

THE STABLE FLOW WILL REDUCE TSTM CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED.

WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP
SIGNIFICANT FOG. MAINTAINED PATCHY.

LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH IS RELATIVELY WARMER
THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED BUT STILL RESULTS IN A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR. THE LOW AT THE
SURFACE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT...RAIN WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY IT LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT...PICKING UP
IN INTENSITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GUSTY
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RAIN MAY BECOME INTERMITTENT AT TIMES WITH DRY INTERVALS. MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY PINPOINTING WHERE THE MORE CONSISTENT RAIN
WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STACKED LOW EAST OF LONG ISLAND THU MORNING WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT
N/NE UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL THEN FEED INTO THE MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NOAM SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THEREAFTER... THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
ENSUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR A NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA.

RAIN WILL LINGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW THU INTO THU
NIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
WITH THE CLEARING WITH CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY REMAINING THROUGH SAT.
HOWEVER...HAVE AIRED MORE OPTIMISTICALLY WITH CLEARING LATE FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT. AS FOR THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT...HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS DO HAVE SOME
LIGHT QPF. PREFER TO SEE MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING
ANY SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM SUN
NIGHT INTO MON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST ON TUE.

THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS LOOKING TO BE ON SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE FROM BELOW NORMAL ON THU WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WARM RIDGE BUILDS IN
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY.

OVERALL TODAY...EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS...BETWEEN 1 AND 2
KFT. DO NOT FORESEE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS UNDER 4 MILES...UNLESS
ANY AIRPORT EXPERIENCES LOCAL HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME.

ON AND OFF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED. BEST GUESS FOR TIMING WOULD BE THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KTS. GUSTS BECOME FREQUENT
AFTER 14-16Z. GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT EXPECTED.

THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING...THEN DUE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN ON AND
OFF RA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY
MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BECOMING E/NE AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH OF THE
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON ON
ALL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGHER OCEAN SEAS CONTINUE INTO THU. SCA
FOR OCEAN WED THROUGH THU AND OTHER WATERS WED AFTERNOON THROUGH
WED NIGHT.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THU LIFTS SLOWLY NE AND
UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST AND INTO THE WATERS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY W-NW FLOW. MARGINAL
SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUND...HARBOR...AND SURROUNDING BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AROUND 1/2 QPF
FORECAST. LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IN SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING TODAY THROUGH
THU.

STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING ISSUES/CONCERNS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 220551
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
151 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA...AND THEN WILL
MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE LOW THEN TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...THEN
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND HELP DEEPEN A SFC LOW OFF THE DELMARVA.
AT THE SAME TIME...A 1030S HI OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO EASE
TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. AS A RESULT...LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ALREADY
BACKED TO THE N ACROSS THE CWA.

THE STABLE FLOW WILL REDUCE TSTM CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED.

WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP
SIGNIFICANT FOG. MAINTAINED PATCHY.

LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH IS RELATIVELY WARMER
THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED BUT STILL RESULTS IN A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR. THE LOW AT THE
SURFACE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT...RAIN WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY IT LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT...PICKING UP
IN INTENSITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GUSTY
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RAIN MAY BECOME INTERMITTENT AT TIMES WITH DRY INTERVALS. MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY PINPOINTING WHERE THE MORE CONSISTENT RAIN
WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STACKED LOW EAST OF LONG ISLAND THU MORNING WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT
N/NE UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL THEN FEED INTO THE MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NOAM SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THEREAFTER... THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
ENSUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR A NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA.

RAIN WILL LINGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW THU INTO THU
NIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
WITH THE CLEARING WITH CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY REMAINING THROUGH SAT.
HOWEVER...HAVE AIRED MORE OPTIMISTICALLY WITH CLEARING LATE FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT. AS FOR THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT...HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS DO HAVE SOME
LIGHT QPF. PREFER TO SEE MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING
ANY SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM SUN
NIGHT INTO MON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST ON TUE.

THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS LOOKING TO BE ON SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE FROM BELOW NORMAL ON THU WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WARM RIDGE BUILDS IN
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY.

OVERALL TODAY...EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS...BETWEEN 1 AND 2
KFT. DO NOT FORESEE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS UNDER 4 MILES...UNLESS
ANY AIRPORT EXPERIENCES LOCAL HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME.

ON AND OFF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED. BEST GUESS FOR TIMING WOULD BE THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KTS. GUSTS BECOME FREQUENT
AFTER 14-16Z. GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT EXPECTED.

THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING...THEN DUE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN ON AND
OFF RA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY
MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BECOMING E/NE AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH OF THE
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON ON
ALL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGHER OCEAN SEAS CONTINUE INTO THU. SCA
FOR OCEAN WED THROUGH THU AND OTHER WATERS WED AFTERNOON THROUGH
WED NIGHT.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THU LIFTS SLOWLY NE AND
UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST AND INTO THE WATERS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY W-NW FLOW. MARGINAL
SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUND...HARBOR...AND SURROUNDING BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AROUND 1/2 QPF
FORECAST. LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IN SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING TODAY THROUGH
THU.

STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING ISSUES/CONCERNS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 220233
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1033 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA...AND THEN WILL
MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE LOW THEN TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...THEN
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN PA. THIS WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
AND HELP TO DEEPEN A SFC LOW OFF THE DELMARVA. AT THE SAME
TIME...A 1030S HI OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO EASE TOWARDS THE
MARITIMES. AS A RESULT...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALREADY BACKING TO THE
N ACROSS THE CWA...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE.

THE STABLE FLOW WILL REDUCE TSTM CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. THEY MAY BE REMOVED WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. DID REMOVE THE
HAIL HOWEVER AS MLCAPE DECREASES.

WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP
SIGNIFICANT FOG. MAINTAINED PATCHY BUT INCREASED VSBY.

LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH IS RELATIVELY WARMER
THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED BUT STILL RESULTS IN A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR. THE LOW AT THE
SURFACE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT...RAIN WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY IT LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT...PICKING UP
IN INTENSITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GUSTY
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RAIN MAY BECOME INTERMITTENT AT TIMES WITH DRY INTERVALS. MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY PINPOINTING WHERE THE MORE CONSISTENT RAIN
WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STACKED LOW EAST OF LONG ISLAND THU MORNING WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT
N/NE UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL THEN FEED INTO THE MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NOAM SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THEREAFTER... THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
ENSUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR A NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA.

RAIN WILL LINGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW THU INTO THU
NIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
WITH THE CLEARING WITH CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY REMAINING THROUGH SAT.
HOWEVER...HAVE AIRED MORE OPTIMISTICALLY WITH CLEARING LATE FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT. AS FOR THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT...HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS DO HAVE SOME
LIGHT QPF. PREFER TO SEE MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING
ANY SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM SUN
NIGHT INTO MON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST ON TUE.

THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS LOOKING TO BE ON SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE FROM BELOW NORMAL ON THU WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WARM RIDGE BUILDS IN
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MAINLY VFR...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR EARLY OVERNIGHT. THEN
MVFR DEVELOPS THROUGHOUT LATE OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SMALL CHANCE OF POCKETS OF IFR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH AREA OF -RA MOVING THROUGH MAINLY
WESTERN/CITY TERMINALS FROM AROUND 8 TO 14/15Z. CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION
AND OCCURRENCE OF ANY IFR CONDITIONS TO LOW TO PLACE IN ANY TAF.

PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY...AFTER AFOREMENTIONED -RA THROUGH
14/15Z...WILL BE RATHER SPOTTY. IT WILL NOT BE RAINING
CONTINUOUSLY...AND PROBABLY WILL NOT RAIN AT LEAST HALF THE TIME
IN ANY GIVEN HOUR...SO WENT WITH VCSH FOR NOW. WILL REFINE LATER
WHEN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE APPARENT.

WINDS BECOME NE-NNE THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT...INCREASE TO AROUND 10KT
LATE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25KT BY MID MORNING AT ALL BUT KSWF...WHERE THE GUSTS SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN
SHRA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT LIKELY.
.FRIIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY
MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS LIGHT AND FROM THE E-SE WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF THE WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WED THROUGH
WED NIGHT WITH LOW FURTHER DEEPENING. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY BY
WED AFTERNOON ON ALL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FT ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE HIGHER OCEAN SEAS
CONTINUE INTO THU. SCA FOR OCEAN WED THROUGH THU AND OTHER WATERS
WED AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THU LIFTS SLOWLY NE AND
UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST AND INTO THE WATERS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY W-NW FLOW. MARGINAL
SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUND...HARBOR...AND SURROUNDING BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON
AVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN INCREASES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH AROUND 1/2 QPF FORECAST. LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN
OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IN SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WED THROUGH
THU.

STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING ISSUES/CONCERNS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW










000
FXUS61 KOKX 212353
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
753 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA...AND THEN WILL
MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE LOW THEN TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...THEN
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
GRIDS UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS ACROSS ERN LI WHERE WEAK TSTM COMPLEX
IS ROLLING THRU. TEMPS AND OTHER HOURLY FIELDS ADJUSTED. FCST
FOR SCT PCPN STILL LOOKS ON TRACK...HOWEVER SLOW MOVEMENT OF
ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF LINGERING PCPN...PARTICULARLY
OVER NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES TO JUST
WEST OF THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE
DELMARVA. LOW AT THE SURFACE NEAR THE DELMARVA MOVES EAST AND
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BASICALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES. COULD
SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM. WINDS ARE
STILL LIGHT OVERALL BUT BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT. LATE
TONIGHT...EXPECTING AN OVERALL INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL A POSSIBILITY AS MUCAPE VALUES STILL
COULD REACH 100-200 J/KG...CLOSER TO THE COAST.

LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH IS RELATIVELY WARMER
THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED BUT STILL RESULTS IN A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR. THE LOW AT THE
SURFACE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT...RAIN WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY IT LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT...PICKING UP
IN INTENSITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GUSTY
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RAIN MAY BECOME INTERMITTENT AT TIMES WITH DRY INTERVALS. MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY PINPOINTING WHERE THE MORE CONSISTENT RAIN
WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STACKED LOW EAST OF LONG ISLAND THU MORNING WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT
N/NE UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL THEN FEED INTO THE MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NOAM SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THEREAFTER... THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
ENSUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR A NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA.

RAIN WILL LINGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW THU INTO THU
NIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
WITH THE CLEARING WITH CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY REMAINING THROUGH SAT.
HOWEVER...HAVE AIRED MORE OPTIMISTICALLY WITH CLEARING LATE FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT. AS FOR THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT...HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS DO HAVE SOME
LIGHT QPF. PREFER TO SEE MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING
ANY SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM SUN
NIGHT INTO MON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST ON TUE.

THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS LOOKING TO BE ON SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE FROM BELOW NORMAL ON THU WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WARM RIDGE BUILDS IN
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MAINLY VFR...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR THIS EVENING. THEN MVFR
DEVELOPS THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SMALL CHANCE OF POCKETS OF IFR LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING - CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND
OCCURRENCE TO LOW TO PLACE IN ANY TAF. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD
TSTM OVERNIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS. PRECIPITATION
TOMORROW WILL BE RATHER SPOTTY...WILL NOT BE RAINING
CONTINUOUSLY...AND PROBABLY WILL NOT RAIN AT LEAST HALF THE TIME
IN ANY GIVEN HOUR...SO WENT WITH VCSH FOR NOW. WILL REFINE LATER
WHEN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE APPARENT.

WINDS BECOME NE THROUGHOUT TONIGHT...INCREASE TO AROUND 10KT LATE
TONIGHT...THEN BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NE-NNE WEDNESDAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25KT BY MID MORNING AT ALL BUT KSWF...WHERE THE
GUSTS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OFF ONSET OF MVFR AND CHANGES IN WIND
SPEED/DIRECTION/GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OFF ONSET OF MVFR AND CHANGES IN WIND
SPEED/DIRECTION/GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OFF ONSET OF MVFR AND CHANGES IN WIND
SPEED/DIRECTION/GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. VCTS THROUGH 2Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OFF ONSET OF MVFR AND CHANGES IN WIND
SPEED/DIRECTION/GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. VCTS THROUGH 2Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OFF ONSET OF MVFR AND CHANGES IN WIND
SPEED/DIRECTION/GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OFF ONSET OF MVFR AND CHANGES IN WIND
SPEED/DIRECTION/GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN
SHRA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT LIKELY.
.FRIIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY
MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS LIGHT AND FROM THE E-SE WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF THE WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WED THROUGH
WED NIGHT WITH LOW FURTHER DEEPENING. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY BY
WED AFTERNOON ON ALL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FT ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE HIGHER OCEAN SEAS
CONTINUE INTO THU. SCA FOR OCEAN WED THROUGH THU AND OTHER WATERS
WED AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THU LIFTS SLOWLY NE AND
UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST AND INTO THE WATERS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY W-NW FLOW. MARGINAL
SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUND...HARBOR...AND SURROUNDING BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL RESULT IN LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN
INCREASES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AROUND 1/2 QPF
FORECAST. LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IN SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WED THROUGH
THU.

STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING ISSUES/CONCERNS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW








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