Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KOKX 031931
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
331 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY AND REMAINS IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT
POSSIBLY APPROACHING LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 19Z...CONVECTION IS WELL NORTH AND WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

PER LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS ALONG WITH NARRE-TL DISSIPATION OF
CONVECTION IS FORECAST WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ONLY AREA
THAT COULD GET A STORM THOUGH 8 PM IS ORANGE COUNTY WHERE MUCAPE`S
ARE NEAR 1500 J/KG.

HAVE LIMITED POPS TO ISOLATED OVERNIGHT BASED ON NWP, LIMITED
DYNAMICS (WEAK PVA) AND MODEST AT BEST INSTABILITY.

LOWS ARE A MOS BLEND IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE NY METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR FRI AS NE WIND USHERS IN COOLER AND
DRIER AIR. ALSO EXTENSIVE COULD COVER IS FORECAST. TEMPS COULD
ACTUALLY NOT BREAK 80 IN CENTRAL PARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY
2 MONTHS. HAVE GONE WITH COOLER GFS MOS BASED ON EXPECTATIONS OF
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS ARE NEAR 80.

CLEARING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE NE FLOW PERSISTING.

RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS SEAS BUILD AND
LONG SHORE CURRENT INCREASES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
HIGH RISK LIKELY PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FLATTENING THROUGH MIDWEEK. THERE IS ALSO
OVERALL DEPICTION OF A BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SE
US...PART OF WHICH MAY SHEAR NE DURING THE WEEK. PREDICTABILITY ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE IS LOW. OTHERWISE...DECENT AGREEMENT
ON THE APPROACH OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LATE IN THE
WEEK...BUT STRENGTH AND TIMING IS AGAIN IN QUESTION.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER AND EAST OF THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND DRY CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK SAT DUE TO 5 FT EASTERLY SWELLS/WAVES. HIGHS
SHOULD RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY MERGES
WITH BERMUDA HIGH. A STEADY MODERATION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS
LIKELY SUN THROUGH WED...WITH HIGHS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. GENERALLY UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S...WITH HEAT INDICES AT THIS POINT LOOKING JUST NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TEMPS.

THE CAVEAT IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK IS THAT WITH THE WEAK UPPER
LOW EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME TYPE OF SUBTROPICAL TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
EARLY/MID WEEK. THIS WOULD POSE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK.
POTENTIAL IN THIS OCCURRENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR RIDGING TO FLATTEN ENOUGH BY
THURSDAY FOR APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WOULD ALSO
ALLOW FOR A COOLER AIRMASS TO INFILTRATE THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY

VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS.

MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH CIGS FALLING TO
2-3KFT. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS WHICH FALL BELOW
2KFT. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS THEN LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT BECOME NE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING TO 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE TEENS POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND
TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND
TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEABREEZE OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEABREEZE OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS GIVING WAY TO VFR CIGS LATE.
NE-E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH A SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT BRING IN A NE FLOW THAT
INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SCA IS ISSUES FOR THE OCEAN
STARTING AT 10 AM...THOUGH THE SCA CONDITION WILL SPREAD FROM EAST
TO WEST BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW SCA LEVELS
BY SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

THEREAFTER...SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SEE SPECIAL ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST RELATED TO
GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW.

FNUS51 KOKX / NYCFWFOKX

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/NV
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...TONGUE/NV
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031931
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
331 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY AND REMAINS IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT
POSSIBLY APPROACHING LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 19Z...CONVECTION IS WELL NORTH AND WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

PER LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS ALONG WITH NARRE-TL DISSIPATION OF
CONVECTION IS FORECAST WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ONLY AREA
THAT COULD GET A STORM THOUGH 8 PM IS ORANGE COUNTY WHERE MUCAPE`S
ARE NEAR 1500 J/KG.

HAVE LIMITED POPS TO ISOLATED OVERNIGHT BASED ON NWP, LIMITED
DYNAMICS (WEAK PVA) AND MODEST AT BEST INSTABILITY.

LOWS ARE A MOS BLEND IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE NY METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR FRI AS NE WIND USHERS IN COOLER AND
DRIER AIR. ALSO EXTENSIVE COULD COVER IS FORECAST. TEMPS COULD
ACTUALLY NOT BREAK 80 IN CENTRAL PARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY
2 MONTHS. HAVE GONE WITH COOLER GFS MOS BASED ON EXPECTATIONS OF
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS ARE NEAR 80.

CLEARING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE NE FLOW PERSISTING.

RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS SEAS BUILD AND
LONG SHORE CURRENT INCREASES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
HIGH RISK LIKELY PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FLATTENING THROUGH MIDWEEK. THERE IS ALSO
OVERALL DEPICTION OF A BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SE
US...PART OF WHICH MAY SHEAR NE DURING THE WEEK. PREDICTABILITY ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE IS LOW. OTHERWISE...DECENT AGREEMENT
ON THE APPROACH OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LATE IN THE
WEEK...BUT STRENGTH AND TIMING IS AGAIN IN QUESTION.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER AND EAST OF THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND DRY CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK SAT DUE TO 5 FT EASTERLY SWELLS/WAVES. HIGHS
SHOULD RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY MERGES
WITH BERMUDA HIGH. A STEADY MODERATION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS
LIKELY SUN THROUGH WED...WITH HIGHS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. GENERALLY UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S...WITH HEAT INDICES AT THIS POINT LOOKING JUST NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TEMPS.

THE CAVEAT IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK IS THAT WITH THE WEAK UPPER
LOW EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME TYPE OF SUBTROPICAL TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
EARLY/MID WEEK. THIS WOULD POSE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK.
POTENTIAL IN THIS OCCURRENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR RIDGING TO FLATTEN ENOUGH BY
THURSDAY FOR APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WOULD ALSO
ALLOW FOR A COOLER AIRMASS TO INFILTRATE THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY

VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS.

MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH CIGS FALLING TO
2-3KFT. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS WHICH FALL BELOW
2KFT. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS THEN LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT BECOME NE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING TO 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE TEENS POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND
TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND
TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEABREEZE OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEABREEZE OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS GIVING WAY TO VFR CIGS LATE.
NE-E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH A SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT BRING IN A NE FLOW THAT
INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SCA IS ISSUES FOR THE OCEAN
STARTING AT 10 AM...THOUGH THE SCA CONDITION WILL SPREAD FROM EAST
TO WEST BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW SCA LEVELS
BY SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

THEREAFTER...SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SEE SPECIAL ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST RELATED TO
GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW.

FNUS51 KOKX / NYCFWFOKX

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/NV
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...TONGUE/NV
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE





000
FXUS61 KOKX 031931
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
331 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY AND REMAINS IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT
POSSIBLY APPROACHING LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 19Z...CONVECTION IS WELL NORTH AND WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

PER LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS ALONG WITH NARRE-TL DISSIPATION OF
CONVECTION IS FORECAST WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ONLY AREA
THAT COULD GET A STORM THOUGH 8 PM IS ORANGE COUNTY WHERE MUCAPE`S
ARE NEAR 1500 J/KG.

HAVE LIMITED POPS TO ISOLATED OVERNIGHT BASED ON NWP, LIMITED
DYNAMICS (WEAK PVA) AND MODEST AT BEST INSTABILITY.

LOWS ARE A MOS BLEND IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE NY METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR FRI AS NE WIND USHERS IN COOLER AND
DRIER AIR. ALSO EXTENSIVE COULD COVER IS FORECAST. TEMPS COULD
ACTUALLY NOT BREAK 80 IN CENTRAL PARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY
2 MONTHS. HAVE GONE WITH COOLER GFS MOS BASED ON EXPECTATIONS OF
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS ARE NEAR 80.

CLEARING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE NE FLOW PERSISTING.

RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS SEAS BUILD AND
LONG SHORE CURRENT INCREASES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
HIGH RISK LIKELY PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FLATTENING THROUGH MIDWEEK. THERE IS ALSO
OVERALL DEPICTION OF A BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SE
US...PART OF WHICH MAY SHEAR NE DURING THE WEEK. PREDICTABILITY ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE IS LOW. OTHERWISE...DECENT AGREEMENT
ON THE APPROACH OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LATE IN THE
WEEK...BUT STRENGTH AND TIMING IS AGAIN IN QUESTION.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER AND EAST OF THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND DRY CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK SAT DUE TO 5 FT EASTERLY SWELLS/WAVES. HIGHS
SHOULD RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY MERGES
WITH BERMUDA HIGH. A STEADY MODERATION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS
LIKELY SUN THROUGH WED...WITH HIGHS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. GENERALLY UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S...WITH HEAT INDICES AT THIS POINT LOOKING JUST NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TEMPS.

THE CAVEAT IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK IS THAT WITH THE WEAK UPPER
LOW EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME TYPE OF SUBTROPICAL TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
EARLY/MID WEEK. THIS WOULD POSE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK.
POTENTIAL IN THIS OCCURRENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR RIDGING TO FLATTEN ENOUGH BY
THURSDAY FOR APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WOULD ALSO
ALLOW FOR A COOLER AIRMASS TO INFILTRATE THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY

VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS.

MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH CIGS FALLING TO
2-3KFT. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS WHICH FALL BELOW
2KFT. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS THEN LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT BECOME NE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING TO 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE TEENS POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND
TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND
TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEABREEZE OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEABREEZE OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS GIVING WAY TO VFR CIGS LATE.
NE-E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH A SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT BRING IN A NE FLOW THAT
INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SCA IS ISSUES FOR THE OCEAN
STARTING AT 10 AM...THOUGH THE SCA CONDITION WILL SPREAD FROM EAST
TO WEST BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW SCA LEVELS
BY SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

THEREAFTER...SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SEE SPECIAL ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST RELATED TO
GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW.

FNUS51 KOKX / NYCFWFOKX

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/NV
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...TONGUE/NV
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031931
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
331 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY AND REMAINS IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT
POSSIBLY APPROACHING LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 19Z...CONVECTION IS WELL NORTH AND WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

PER LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS ALONG WITH NARRE-TL DISSIPATION OF
CONVECTION IS FORECAST WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ONLY AREA
THAT COULD GET A STORM THOUGH 8 PM IS ORANGE COUNTY WHERE MUCAPE`S
ARE NEAR 1500 J/KG.

HAVE LIMITED POPS TO ISOLATED OVERNIGHT BASED ON NWP, LIMITED
DYNAMICS (WEAK PVA) AND MODEST AT BEST INSTABILITY.

LOWS ARE A MOS BLEND IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE NY METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR FRI AS NE WIND USHERS IN COOLER AND
DRIER AIR. ALSO EXTENSIVE COULD COVER IS FORECAST. TEMPS COULD
ACTUALLY NOT BREAK 80 IN CENTRAL PARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY
2 MONTHS. HAVE GONE WITH COOLER GFS MOS BASED ON EXPECTATIONS OF
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS ARE NEAR 80.

CLEARING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE NE FLOW PERSISTING.

RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS SEAS BUILD AND
LONG SHORE CURRENT INCREASES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
HIGH RISK LIKELY PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FLATTENING THROUGH MIDWEEK. THERE IS ALSO
OVERALL DEPICTION OF A BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SE
US...PART OF WHICH MAY SHEAR NE DURING THE WEEK. PREDICTABILITY ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE IS LOW. OTHERWISE...DECENT AGREEMENT
ON THE APPROACH OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LATE IN THE
WEEK...BUT STRENGTH AND TIMING IS AGAIN IN QUESTION.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER AND EAST OF THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND DRY CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK SAT DUE TO 5 FT EASTERLY SWELLS/WAVES. HIGHS
SHOULD RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY MERGES
WITH BERMUDA HIGH. A STEADY MODERATION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS
LIKELY SUN THROUGH WED...WITH HIGHS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. GENERALLY UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S...WITH HEAT INDICES AT THIS POINT LOOKING JUST NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TEMPS.

THE CAVEAT IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK IS THAT WITH THE WEAK UPPER
LOW EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME TYPE OF SUBTROPICAL TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
EARLY/MID WEEK. THIS WOULD POSE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK.
POTENTIAL IN THIS OCCURRENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR RIDGING TO FLATTEN ENOUGH BY
THURSDAY FOR APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WOULD ALSO
ALLOW FOR A COOLER AIRMASS TO INFILTRATE THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY

VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS.

MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH CIGS FALLING TO
2-3KFT. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS WHICH FALL BELOW
2KFT. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS THEN LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT BECOME NE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING TO 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE TEENS POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND
TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND
TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEABREEZE OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEABREEZE OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS GIVING WAY TO VFR CIGS LATE.
NE-E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH A SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT BRING IN A NE FLOW THAT
INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SCA IS ISSUES FOR THE OCEAN
STARTING AT 10 AM...THOUGH THE SCA CONDITION WILL SPREAD FROM EAST
TO WEST BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW SCA LEVELS
BY SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

THEREAFTER...SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SEE SPECIAL ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST RELATED TO
GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW.

FNUS51 KOKX / NYCFWFOKX

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/NV
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...TONGUE/NV
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE





000
FXUS61 KOKX 031742
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
142 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. LAST DAY OF 90`S. HEAT
INDEX ARE NEAR THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.

SEA BREEZE WELL UNDERWAY AS SEEN ON LOCAL RADARS. EXPECT THIS TO
MOVE THROUGH NY CITY LOWERING TEMPS FROM CURRENT MAXES.

CONVECTION IS WELL NORTH OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. CAPES ARE NEAR 1000 J/KG. HAVE KEPT CHANCE
SHRA/TSRA.

THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE SW WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER STILL
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING FOR PRIMARILY NE NJ AND THE CITY. NEGATIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION...SURFACE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD THEN
KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HOWEVER
SHOWING SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO SOME AREAS COULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD BE 7-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY`S IN
MOST CASES.

ALTHOUGH MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY
EAST WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD
OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE
FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

HIGH PRES...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...BUILDS OVER THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...A
TIGHTENING EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TRI-
STATE AREA FOR SATURDAY...AND THEN WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY FOR
SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

BERMUDA HIGH PRES THEN STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. HIGHS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND
POSSIBLY AROUND 90 FOR NYC AND NE NJ. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THE RIDGE ALONG THE COAST BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY

MAINLY VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO
HAZE. ALSO...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN TAFS.

MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH CIGS FALLING TO
2-3KFT. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS WHICH FALL BELOW
2KFT. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS THEN LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND GIVE WAY TO
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES. UNSURE IF THE SEABREEZE REACHES KTEB. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT AGAIN THIS EVENING...THEN
BECOME NE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING TO
10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
SEABREEZE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEABREEZE OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
SEABREEZE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
SEABREEZE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS GIVING WAY TO VFR CIGS LATE.
NE-E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. WINDS THEN PICK UP
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
SEAS COULD RISE TO 5 FT BY EVENING AS WELL OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN
WATERS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WEAKER AND LATER WITH
INCREASING WINDS...PLUS WAVEWATCH HAS DELAYED THE ONSET OF 5 FT
SEAS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. ADD TO THIS THAT WOULD BE A LATE
THIRD-PERIOD EVENT...WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON SCA ISSUANCE FOR
NOW AND LET THE DAY SHIFT SEE IF TRENDS CONTINUE AND ISSUE SCA AS
NECESSARY.

A TIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS ON
SATURDAY...AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ARE LIKELY
ON THE OCEAN WATERS BEFORE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031430
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1030 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND PASSES THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG OFF THE EAST END OF LONG ISLAND IS/HAS LIFTED. ANOTHER HOT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY. HIGHS AROUND 90 IN/AROUND
NYC AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE
IN THE MID 60S...THUS THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE NEAR THE AMBIENT
TEMPERATURE.

HAVE DROPPED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION UNTIL THIS EVENING BASED ON
LATEST SHORT TERM NWP AND SURFACE FRONT STILL BACK IN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT WITH
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE
PUSHING SOUTH THEN KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SOME
SECTIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE SW
WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING FOR
PRIMARILY NE NJ AND THE CITY. NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...
SURFACE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD THEN KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HOWEVER SHOWING SOME LINGERING
MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO SOME AREAS COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. A MAV/NAM
MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD BE 7-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY`S IN MOST CASES.

ALTHOUGH MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY
EAST WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD
OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE
FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

HIGH PRES...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...BUILDS OVER THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...A
TIGHTENING EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TRI-
STATE AREA FOR SATURDAY...AND THEN WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY FOR
SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

BERMUDA HIGH PRES THEN STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. HIGHS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND
POSSIBLY AROUND 90 FOR NYC AND NE NJ. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THE RIDGE ALONG THE COAST BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO
HAZE. ALSO...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND GIVE WAY TO
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES. UNSURE IF THE SEABREEZE REACHES KTEB. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT AGAIN THIS EVENING...THEN
BECOME NE BEHIND THE FRONT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
SEABREEZE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEABREEZE OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
SEABREEZE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
SEABREEZE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CITY TERMINALS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NE-E
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG SOUTH THE EAST END OF LONG ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE BY
NOON.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING
WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. WINDS
THEN PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE
A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND SEAS COULD RISE TO 5 FT BY EVENING AS WELL OVER
THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WEAKER AND
LATER WITH INCREASING WINDS...PLUS WAVEWATCH HAS DELAYED THE ONSET
OF 5 FT SEAS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. ADD TO THIS THAT WOULD
BE A LATE THIRD-PERIOD EVENT...WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON SCA
ISSUANCE FOR NOW AND LET THE DAY SHIFT SEE IF TRENDS CONTINUE AND
ISSUE SCA AS NECESSARY.

A TIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS ON
SATURDAY...AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ARE LIKELY
ON THE OCEAN WATERS BEFORE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031430
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1030 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND PASSES THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG OFF THE EAST END OF LONG ISLAND IS/HAS LIFTED. ANOTHER HOT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY. HIGHS AROUND 90 IN/AROUND
NYC AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE
IN THE MID 60S...THUS THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE NEAR THE AMBIENT
TEMPERATURE.

HAVE DROPPED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION UNTIL THIS EVENING BASED ON
LATEST SHORT TERM NWP AND SURFACE FRONT STILL BACK IN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT WITH
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE
PUSHING SOUTH THEN KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SOME
SECTIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE SW
WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING FOR
PRIMARILY NE NJ AND THE CITY. NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...
SURFACE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD THEN KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HOWEVER SHOWING SOME LINGERING
MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO SOME AREAS COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. A MAV/NAM
MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD BE 7-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY`S IN MOST CASES.

ALTHOUGH MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY
EAST WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD
OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE
FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

HIGH PRES...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...BUILDS OVER THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...A
TIGHTENING EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TRI-
STATE AREA FOR SATURDAY...AND THEN WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY FOR
SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

BERMUDA HIGH PRES THEN STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. HIGHS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND
POSSIBLY AROUND 90 FOR NYC AND NE NJ. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THE RIDGE ALONG THE COAST BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO
HAZE. ALSO...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND GIVE WAY TO
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES. UNSURE IF THE SEABREEZE REACHES KTEB. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT AGAIN THIS EVENING...THEN
BECOME NE BEHIND THE FRONT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
SEABREEZE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEABREEZE OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
SEABREEZE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
SEABREEZE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CITY TERMINALS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NE-E
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG SOUTH THE EAST END OF LONG ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE BY
NOON.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING
WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. WINDS
THEN PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE
A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND SEAS COULD RISE TO 5 FT BY EVENING AS WELL OVER
THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WEAKER AND
LATER WITH INCREASING WINDS...PLUS WAVEWATCH HAS DELAYED THE ONSET
OF 5 FT SEAS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. ADD TO THIS THAT WOULD
BE A LATE THIRD-PERIOD EVENT...WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON SCA
ISSUANCE FOR NOW AND LET THE DAY SHIFT SEE IF TRENDS CONTINUE AND
ISSUE SCA AS NECESSARY.

A TIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS ON
SATURDAY...AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ARE LIKELY
ON THE OCEAN WATERS BEFORE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS





000
FXUS61 KOKX 031430
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1030 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND PASSES THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG OFF THE EAST END OF LONG ISLAND IS/HAS LIFTED. ANOTHER HOT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY. HIGHS AROUND 90 IN/AROUND
NYC AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE
IN THE MID 60S...THUS THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE NEAR THE AMBIENT
TEMPERATURE.

HAVE DROPPED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION UNTIL THIS EVENING BASED ON
LATEST SHORT TERM NWP AND SURFACE FRONT STILL BACK IN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT WITH
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE
PUSHING SOUTH THEN KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SOME
SECTIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE SW
WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING FOR
PRIMARILY NE NJ AND THE CITY. NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...
SURFACE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD THEN KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HOWEVER SHOWING SOME LINGERING
MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO SOME AREAS COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. A MAV/NAM
MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD BE 7-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY`S IN MOST CASES.

ALTHOUGH MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY
EAST WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD
OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE
FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

HIGH PRES...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...BUILDS OVER THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...A
TIGHTENING EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TRI-
STATE AREA FOR SATURDAY...AND THEN WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY FOR
SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

BERMUDA HIGH PRES THEN STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. HIGHS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND
POSSIBLY AROUND 90 FOR NYC AND NE NJ. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THE RIDGE ALONG THE COAST BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO
HAZE. ALSO...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND GIVE WAY TO
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES. UNSURE IF THE SEABREEZE REACHES KTEB. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT AGAIN THIS EVENING...THEN
BECOME NE BEHIND THE FRONT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
SEABREEZE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEABREEZE OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
SEABREEZE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
SEABREEZE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CITY TERMINALS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NE-E
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG SOUTH THE EAST END OF LONG ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE BY
NOON.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING
WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. WINDS
THEN PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE
A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND SEAS COULD RISE TO 5 FT BY EVENING AS WELL OVER
THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WEAKER AND
LATER WITH INCREASING WINDS...PLUS WAVEWATCH HAS DELAYED THE ONSET
OF 5 FT SEAS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. ADD TO THIS THAT WOULD
BE A LATE THIRD-PERIOD EVENT...WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON SCA
ISSUANCE FOR NOW AND LET THE DAY SHIFT SEE IF TRENDS CONTINUE AND
ISSUE SCA AS NECESSARY.

A TIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS ON
SATURDAY...AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ARE LIKELY
ON THE OCEAN WATERS BEFORE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031430
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1030 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND PASSES THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG OFF THE EAST END OF LONG ISLAND IS/HAS LIFTED. ANOTHER HOT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY. HIGHS AROUND 90 IN/AROUND
NYC AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE
IN THE MID 60S...THUS THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE NEAR THE AMBIENT
TEMPERATURE.

HAVE DROPPED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION UNTIL THIS EVENING BASED ON
LATEST SHORT TERM NWP AND SURFACE FRONT STILL BACK IN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT WITH
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE
PUSHING SOUTH THEN KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SOME
SECTIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE SW
WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING FOR
PRIMARILY NE NJ AND THE CITY. NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...
SURFACE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD THEN KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HOWEVER SHOWING SOME LINGERING
MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO SOME AREAS COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. A MAV/NAM
MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD BE 7-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY`S IN MOST CASES.

ALTHOUGH MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY
EAST WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD
OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE
FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

HIGH PRES...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...BUILDS OVER THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...A
TIGHTENING EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TRI-
STATE AREA FOR SATURDAY...AND THEN WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY FOR
SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

BERMUDA HIGH PRES THEN STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. HIGHS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND
POSSIBLY AROUND 90 FOR NYC AND NE NJ. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THE RIDGE ALONG THE COAST BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO
HAZE. ALSO...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND GIVE WAY TO
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES. UNSURE IF THE SEABREEZE REACHES KTEB. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT AGAIN THIS EVENING...THEN
BECOME NE BEHIND THE FRONT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
SEABREEZE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEABREEZE OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
SEABREEZE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
SEABREEZE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CITY TERMINALS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NE-E
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG SOUTH THE EAST END OF LONG ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE BY
NOON.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING
WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. WINDS
THEN PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE
A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND SEAS COULD RISE TO 5 FT BY EVENING AS WELL OVER
THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WEAKER AND
LATER WITH INCREASING WINDS...PLUS WAVEWATCH HAS DELAYED THE ONSET
OF 5 FT SEAS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. ADD TO THIS THAT WOULD
BE A LATE THIRD-PERIOD EVENT...WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON SCA
ISSUANCE FOR NOW AND LET THE DAY SHIFT SEE IF TRENDS CONTINUE AND
ISSUE SCA AS NECESSARY.

A TIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS ON
SATURDAY...AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ARE LIKELY
ON THE OCEAN WATERS BEFORE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS





000
FXUS61 KOKX 031142
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
742 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND PASSES THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME AREAS OF MORNING FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUTLYING
AREAS...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLY REDUCING VSBY TO 1/4
MILE ACROSS PARTS OF SUFFOLK COUNTY. COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG WILL BURN OFF THROUGH THE
MORNING AS TEMPS RISE.

OTHERWISE...A WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 IN/AROUND
NYC AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE
IN THE MID 60S...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY HEAT ADVISORY ISSUES.
MAX HEAT INDEX MAY COME CLOSE TO 95 ACROSS NYC AND PARTS OF NE NJ.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE THEN COMBINES WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE
AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT WITH
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN THIS EVENING. A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE PUSHING SOUTH THEN KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
SOME SECTIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO
THE SW WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING FOR
PRIMARILY NE NJ AND THE CITY. NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...
SURFACE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD THEN KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HOWEVER SHOWING SOME LINGERING
MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO SOME AREAS COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. A MAV/NAM
MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD BE 7-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY`S IN MOST CASES.

ALTHOUGH MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY
EAST WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD
OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE
FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

HIGH PRES...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...BUILDS OVER THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...A
TIGHTENING EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TRI-
STATE AREA FOR SATURDAY...AND THEN WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY FOR
SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

BERMUDA HIGH PRES THEN STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. HIGHS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND
POSSIBLY AROUND 90 FOR NYC AND NE NJ. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THE RIDGE ALONG THE COAST BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING...THEN CROSSES
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT IFR FOG AT KISP AND MVFR
FOG AT KSWF/KGON TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 14Z. HAZE ALOFT IS
POSSIBLE AT THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAINLY TO THE N/W OF CITY TERMINALS. AT THIS TIME
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A N-NE FLOW UNDER 10 KT
AT CITY TERMINALS BY MID-LATE MORNING AND AT KTEB/KSWF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE LIKELY AT CT TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND
PROBABLE AT KJFK/KISP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND AT KLGA/KEWR/KHPN BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KTEB BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT AGAIN THIS EVENING. NE WINDS AT UNDER 10 KT DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE. TIMING OF END OF IFR AND OF MVFR THIS MORNING COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CITY TERMINALS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NE-E
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. WINDS THEN PICK
UP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
SEAS COULD RISE TO 5 FT BY EVENING AS WELL OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN
WATERS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WEAKER AND LATER WITH
INCREASING WINDS...PLUS WAVEWATCH HAS DELAYED THE ONSET OF 5 FT
SEAS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. ADD TO THIS THAT WOULD BE A LATE
THIRD-PERIOD EVENT...WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON SCA ISSUANCE FOR
NOW AND LET THE DAY SHIFT SEE IF TRENDS CONTINUE AND ISSUE SCA AS
NECESSARY.

A TIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS ON
SATURDAY...AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ARE LIKELY
ON THE OCEAN WATERS BEFORE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031142
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
742 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND PASSES THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME AREAS OF MORNING FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUTLYING
AREAS...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLY REDUCING VSBY TO 1/4
MILE ACROSS PARTS OF SUFFOLK COUNTY. COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG WILL BURN OFF THROUGH THE
MORNING AS TEMPS RISE.

OTHERWISE...A WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 IN/AROUND
NYC AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE
IN THE MID 60S...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY HEAT ADVISORY ISSUES.
MAX HEAT INDEX MAY COME CLOSE TO 95 ACROSS NYC AND PARTS OF NE NJ.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE THEN COMBINES WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE
AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT WITH
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN THIS EVENING. A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE PUSHING SOUTH THEN KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
SOME SECTIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO
THE SW WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING FOR
PRIMARILY NE NJ AND THE CITY. NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...
SURFACE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD THEN KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HOWEVER SHOWING SOME LINGERING
MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO SOME AREAS COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. A MAV/NAM
MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD BE 7-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY`S IN MOST CASES.

ALTHOUGH MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY
EAST WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD
OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE
FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

HIGH PRES...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...BUILDS OVER THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...A
TIGHTENING EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TRI-
STATE AREA FOR SATURDAY...AND THEN WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY FOR
SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

BERMUDA HIGH PRES THEN STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. HIGHS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND
POSSIBLY AROUND 90 FOR NYC AND NE NJ. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THE RIDGE ALONG THE COAST BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING...THEN CROSSES
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT IFR FOG AT KISP AND MVFR
FOG AT KSWF/KGON TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 14Z. HAZE ALOFT IS
POSSIBLE AT THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAINLY TO THE N/W OF CITY TERMINALS. AT THIS TIME
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A N-NE FLOW UNDER 10 KT
AT CITY TERMINALS BY MID-LATE MORNING AND AT KTEB/KSWF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE LIKELY AT CT TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND
PROBABLE AT KJFK/KISP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND AT KLGA/KEWR/KHPN BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KTEB BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT AGAIN THIS EVENING. NE WINDS AT UNDER 10 KT DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE. TIMING OF END OF IFR AND OF MVFR THIS MORNING COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CITY TERMINALS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NE-E
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. WINDS THEN PICK
UP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
SEAS COULD RISE TO 5 FT BY EVENING AS WELL OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN
WATERS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WEAKER AND LATER WITH
INCREASING WINDS...PLUS WAVEWATCH HAS DELAYED THE ONSET OF 5 FT
SEAS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. ADD TO THIS THAT WOULD BE A LATE
THIRD-PERIOD EVENT...WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON SCA ISSUANCE FOR
NOW AND LET THE DAY SHIFT SEE IF TRENDS CONTINUE AND ISSUE SCA AS
NECESSARY.

A TIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS ON
SATURDAY...AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ARE LIKELY
ON THE OCEAN WATERS BEFORE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS





000
FXUS61 KOKX 031142
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
742 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND PASSES THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME AREAS OF MORNING FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUTLYING
AREAS...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLY REDUCING VSBY TO 1/4
MILE ACROSS PARTS OF SUFFOLK COUNTY. COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG WILL BURN OFF THROUGH THE
MORNING AS TEMPS RISE.

OTHERWISE...A WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 IN/AROUND
NYC AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE
IN THE MID 60S...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY HEAT ADVISORY ISSUES.
MAX HEAT INDEX MAY COME CLOSE TO 95 ACROSS NYC AND PARTS OF NE NJ.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE THEN COMBINES WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE
AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT WITH
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN THIS EVENING. A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE PUSHING SOUTH THEN KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
SOME SECTIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO
THE SW WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING FOR
PRIMARILY NE NJ AND THE CITY. NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...
SURFACE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD THEN KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HOWEVER SHOWING SOME LINGERING
MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO SOME AREAS COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. A MAV/NAM
MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD BE 7-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY`S IN MOST CASES.

ALTHOUGH MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY
EAST WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD
OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE
FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

HIGH PRES...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...BUILDS OVER THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...A
TIGHTENING EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TRI-
STATE AREA FOR SATURDAY...AND THEN WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY FOR
SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

BERMUDA HIGH PRES THEN STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. HIGHS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND
POSSIBLY AROUND 90 FOR NYC AND NE NJ. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THE RIDGE ALONG THE COAST BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING...THEN CROSSES
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT IFR FOG AT KISP AND MVFR
FOG AT KSWF/KGON TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 14Z. HAZE ALOFT IS
POSSIBLE AT THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAINLY TO THE N/W OF CITY TERMINALS. AT THIS TIME
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A N-NE FLOW UNDER 10 KT
AT CITY TERMINALS BY MID-LATE MORNING AND AT KTEB/KSWF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE LIKELY AT CT TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND
PROBABLE AT KJFK/KISP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND AT KLGA/KEWR/KHPN BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KTEB BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT AGAIN THIS EVENING. NE WINDS AT UNDER 10 KT DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE. TIMING OF END OF IFR AND OF MVFR THIS MORNING COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CITY TERMINALS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NE-E
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. WINDS THEN PICK
UP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
SEAS COULD RISE TO 5 FT BY EVENING AS WELL OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN
WATERS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WEAKER AND LATER WITH
INCREASING WINDS...PLUS WAVEWATCH HAS DELAYED THE ONSET OF 5 FT
SEAS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. ADD TO THIS THAT WOULD BE A LATE
THIRD-PERIOD EVENT...WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON SCA ISSUANCE FOR
NOW AND LET THE DAY SHIFT SEE IF TRENDS CONTINUE AND ISSUE SCA AS
NECESSARY.

A TIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS ON
SATURDAY...AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ARE LIKELY
ON THE OCEAN WATERS BEFORE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS





000
FXUS61 KOKX 031142
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
742 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND PASSES THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME AREAS OF MORNING FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUTLYING
AREAS...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLY REDUCING VSBY TO 1/4
MILE ACROSS PARTS OF SUFFOLK COUNTY. COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG WILL BURN OFF THROUGH THE
MORNING AS TEMPS RISE.

OTHERWISE...A WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 IN/AROUND
NYC AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE
IN THE MID 60S...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY HEAT ADVISORY ISSUES.
MAX HEAT INDEX MAY COME CLOSE TO 95 ACROSS NYC AND PARTS OF NE NJ.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE THEN COMBINES WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE
AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT WITH
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN THIS EVENING. A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE PUSHING SOUTH THEN KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
SOME SECTIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO
THE SW WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING FOR
PRIMARILY NE NJ AND THE CITY. NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...
SURFACE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD THEN KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HOWEVER SHOWING SOME LINGERING
MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO SOME AREAS COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. A MAV/NAM
MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD BE 7-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY`S IN MOST CASES.

ALTHOUGH MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY
EAST WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD
OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE
FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

HIGH PRES...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...BUILDS OVER THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...A
TIGHTENING EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TRI-
STATE AREA FOR SATURDAY...AND THEN WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY FOR
SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

BERMUDA HIGH PRES THEN STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. HIGHS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND
POSSIBLY AROUND 90 FOR NYC AND NE NJ. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THE RIDGE ALONG THE COAST BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING...THEN CROSSES
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT IFR FOG AT KISP AND MVFR
FOG AT KSWF/KGON TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 14Z. HAZE ALOFT IS
POSSIBLE AT THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAINLY TO THE N/W OF CITY TERMINALS. AT THIS TIME
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A N-NE FLOW UNDER 10 KT
AT CITY TERMINALS BY MID-LATE MORNING AND AT KTEB/KSWF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE LIKELY AT CT TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND
PROBABLE AT KJFK/KISP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND AT KLGA/KEWR/KHPN BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KTEB BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT AGAIN THIS EVENING. NE WINDS AT UNDER 10 KT DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE. TIMING OF END OF IFR AND OF MVFR THIS MORNING COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CITY TERMINALS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NE-E
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. WINDS THEN PICK
UP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
SEAS COULD RISE TO 5 FT BY EVENING AS WELL OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN
WATERS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WEAKER AND LATER WITH
INCREASING WINDS...PLUS WAVEWATCH HAS DELAYED THE ONSET OF 5 FT
SEAS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. ADD TO THIS THAT WOULD BE A LATE
THIRD-PERIOD EVENT...WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON SCA ISSUANCE FOR
NOW AND LET THE DAY SHIFT SEE IF TRENDS CONTINUE AND ISSUE SCA AS
NECESSARY.

A TIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS ON
SATURDAY...AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ARE LIKELY
ON THE OCEAN WATERS BEFORE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030832
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
432 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND PASSES THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE KEEPS US DRY DURING THE MORNING. A
COLD FRONT THEN COMBINES WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE AND JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.

WENT CLOSER TO MAV MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT AND
EXPECTED TIMING OF SEA BREEZES AND CLOUD COVER. HIGHS THEREFORE
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST CASES.
DEWPOINTS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
HEAT ADVISORIES...AND WILL MAINLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN
THE TEMPERATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT WITH LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN THIS EVENING. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE
PUSHING SOUTH THEN KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SOME
SECTIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE SW
WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING FOR PRIMARILY
NE NJ AND THE CITY. NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...SURFACE
RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD THEN KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HOWEVER SHOWING SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO SOME AREAS COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND
LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD BE 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY`S IN MOST CASES.

ALTHOUGH MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST
WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF
BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS.
ALONG THE COAST...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK
LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

HIGH PRES...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...BUILDS OVER THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...A
TIGHTENING EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TRI-
STATE AREA FOR SATURDAY...AND THEN WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY FOR
SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

BERMUDA HIGH PRES THEN STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. HIGHS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND
POSSIBLY AROUND 90 FOR NYC AND NE NJ. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THE RIDGE ALONG THE COAST BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING...THEN CROSSES
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
HAZE ALOFT IS POSSIBLE AT THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WELL. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY TO THE N/W OF CITY TERMINALS. AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN
TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A N-NE FLOW UNDER 10 KT
AT CITY TERMINALS BY MID-LATE MORNING AND AT KTEB/KSWF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE LIKELY AT CT TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND
PROBABLE AT KJFK/KISP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND AT KLGA/KEWR BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KTEB AND KHPN BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGHOUT AGAIN THIS EVENING.


...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A
SEABREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION
COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF IFR THIS
MORNING AND A SEABREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CITY TERMINALS
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NE-E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. WINDS THEN PICK
UP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND SEAS
COULD RISE TO 5 FT BY EVENING AS WELL OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN
WATERS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WEAKER AND LATER WITH
INCREASING WINDS...PLUS WAVEWATCH HAS DELAYED THE ONSET OF 5 FT
SEAS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. ADD TO THIS THAT WOULD BE A LATE
THIRD-PERIOD EVENT...WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON SCA ISSUANCE FOR
NOW AND LET THE DAY SHIFT SEE IF TRENDS CONTINUE AND ISSUE SCA AS
NECESSARY.

A TIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS ON
SATURDAY...AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ARE LIKELY
ON THE OCEAN WATERS BEFORE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS





000
FXUS61 KOKX 030832
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
432 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND PASSES THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE KEEPS US DRY DURING THE MORNING. A
COLD FRONT THEN COMBINES WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE AND JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.

WENT CLOSER TO MAV MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT AND
EXPECTED TIMING OF SEA BREEZES AND CLOUD COVER. HIGHS THEREFORE
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST CASES.
DEWPOINTS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
HEAT ADVISORIES...AND WILL MAINLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN
THE TEMPERATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT WITH LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN THIS EVENING. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE
PUSHING SOUTH THEN KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SOME
SECTIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE SW
WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING FOR PRIMARILY
NE NJ AND THE CITY. NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...SURFACE
RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD THEN KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HOWEVER SHOWING SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO SOME AREAS COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND
LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD BE 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY`S IN MOST CASES.

ALTHOUGH MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST
WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF
BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS.
ALONG THE COAST...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK
LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

HIGH PRES...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...BUILDS OVER THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...A
TIGHTENING EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TRI-
STATE AREA FOR SATURDAY...AND THEN WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY FOR
SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

BERMUDA HIGH PRES THEN STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. HIGHS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND
POSSIBLY AROUND 90 FOR NYC AND NE NJ. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THE RIDGE ALONG THE COAST BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING...THEN CROSSES
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
HAZE ALOFT IS POSSIBLE AT THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WELL. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY TO THE N/W OF CITY TERMINALS. AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN
TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A N-NE FLOW UNDER 10 KT
AT CITY TERMINALS BY MID-LATE MORNING AND AT KTEB/KSWF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE LIKELY AT CT TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND
PROBABLE AT KJFK/KISP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND AT KLGA/KEWR BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KTEB AND KHPN BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGHOUT AGAIN THIS EVENING.


...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A
SEABREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION
COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF IFR THIS
MORNING AND A SEABREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CITY TERMINALS
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NE-E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. WINDS THEN PICK
UP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND SEAS
COULD RISE TO 5 FT BY EVENING AS WELL OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN
WATERS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WEAKER AND LATER WITH
INCREASING WINDS...PLUS WAVEWATCH HAS DELAYED THE ONSET OF 5 FT
SEAS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. ADD TO THIS THAT WOULD BE A LATE
THIRD-PERIOD EVENT...WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON SCA ISSUANCE FOR
NOW AND LET THE DAY SHIFT SEE IF TRENDS CONTINUE AND ISSUE SCA AS
NECESSARY.

A TIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS ON
SATURDAY...AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ARE LIKELY
ON THE OCEAN WATERS BEFORE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030832
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
432 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND PASSES THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE KEEPS US DRY DURING THE MORNING. A
COLD FRONT THEN COMBINES WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE AND JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.

WENT CLOSER TO MAV MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT AND
EXPECTED TIMING OF SEA BREEZES AND CLOUD COVER. HIGHS THEREFORE
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST CASES.
DEWPOINTS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
HEAT ADVISORIES...AND WILL MAINLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN
THE TEMPERATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT WITH LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN THIS EVENING. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE
PUSHING SOUTH THEN KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SOME
SECTIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE SW
WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING FOR PRIMARILY
NE NJ AND THE CITY. NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...SURFACE
RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD THEN KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HOWEVER SHOWING SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO SOME AREAS COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND
LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD BE 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY`S IN MOST CASES.

ALTHOUGH MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST
WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF
BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS.
ALONG THE COAST...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK
LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

HIGH PRES...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...BUILDS OVER THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...A
TIGHTENING EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TRI-
STATE AREA FOR SATURDAY...AND THEN WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY FOR
SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

BERMUDA HIGH PRES THEN STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. HIGHS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND
POSSIBLY AROUND 90 FOR NYC AND NE NJ. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THE RIDGE ALONG THE COAST BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING...THEN CROSSES
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
HAZE ALOFT IS POSSIBLE AT THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WELL. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY TO THE N/W OF CITY TERMINALS. AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN
TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A N-NE FLOW UNDER 10 KT
AT CITY TERMINALS BY MID-LATE MORNING AND AT KTEB/KSWF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE LIKELY AT CT TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND
PROBABLE AT KJFK/KISP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND AT KLGA/KEWR BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KTEB AND KHPN BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGHOUT AGAIN THIS EVENING.


...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A
SEABREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION
COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF IFR THIS
MORNING AND A SEABREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CITY TERMINALS
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NE-E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. WINDS THEN PICK
UP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND SEAS
COULD RISE TO 5 FT BY EVENING AS WELL OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN
WATERS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WEAKER AND LATER WITH
INCREASING WINDS...PLUS WAVEWATCH HAS DELAYED THE ONSET OF 5 FT
SEAS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. ADD TO THIS THAT WOULD BE A LATE
THIRD-PERIOD EVENT...WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON SCA ISSUANCE FOR
NOW AND LET THE DAY SHIFT SEE IF TRENDS CONTINUE AND ISSUE SCA AS
NECESSARY.

A TIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS ON
SATURDAY...AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ARE LIKELY
ON THE OCEAN WATERS BEFORE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030832
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
432 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND PASSES THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE KEEPS US DRY DURING THE MORNING. A
COLD FRONT THEN COMBINES WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE AND JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.

WENT CLOSER TO MAV MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT AND
EXPECTED TIMING OF SEA BREEZES AND CLOUD COVER. HIGHS THEREFORE
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST CASES.
DEWPOINTS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
HEAT ADVISORIES...AND WILL MAINLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN
THE TEMPERATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT WITH LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN THIS EVENING. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE
PUSHING SOUTH THEN KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SOME
SECTIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE SW
WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING FOR PRIMARILY
NE NJ AND THE CITY. NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...SURFACE
RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD THEN KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HOWEVER SHOWING SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO SOME AREAS COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND
LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD BE 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY`S IN MOST CASES.

ALTHOUGH MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST
WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF
BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS.
ALONG THE COAST...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK
LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

HIGH PRES...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...BUILDS OVER THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...A
TIGHTENING EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TRI-
STATE AREA FOR SATURDAY...AND THEN WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY FOR
SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

BERMUDA HIGH PRES THEN STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. HIGHS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND
POSSIBLY AROUND 90 FOR NYC AND NE NJ. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THE RIDGE ALONG THE COAST BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING...THEN CROSSES
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
HAZE ALOFT IS POSSIBLE AT THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WELL. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY TO THE N/W OF CITY TERMINALS. AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN
TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A N-NE FLOW UNDER 10 KT
AT CITY TERMINALS BY MID-LATE MORNING AND AT KTEB/KSWF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE LIKELY AT CT TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND
PROBABLE AT KJFK/KISP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND AT KLGA/KEWR BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KTEB AND KHPN BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGHOUT AGAIN THIS EVENING.


...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A
SEABREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION
COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF IFR THIS
MORNING AND A SEABREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CITY TERMINALS
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NE-E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. WINDS THEN PICK
UP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND SEAS
COULD RISE TO 5 FT BY EVENING AS WELL OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN
WATERS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WEAKER AND LATER WITH
INCREASING WINDS...PLUS WAVEWATCH HAS DELAYED THE ONSET OF 5 FT
SEAS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. ADD TO THIS THAT WOULD BE A LATE
THIRD-PERIOD EVENT...WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON SCA ISSUANCE FOR
NOW AND LET THE DAY SHIFT SEE IF TRENDS CONTINUE AND ISSUE SCA AS
NECESSARY.

A TIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS ON
SATURDAY...AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ARE LIKELY
ON THE OCEAN WATERS BEFORE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS





000
FXUS61 KOKX 030658
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
258 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND PASSES THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE KEEPS US DRY DURING THE MORNING. A
COLD FRONT THEN COMBINES WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE AND JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN.

WENT CLOSER TO MAV MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT AND
EXPECTED TIMING OF SEA BREEZES AND CLOUD COVER. HIGHS THEREFORE
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST CASES.
DEWPOINTS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
HEAT ADVISORIES...AND WILL MAINLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN
THE TEMPERATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT WITH LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN THIS EVENING. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE
PUSHING SOUTH THEN KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SOME
SECTIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE SW
WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING FOR PRIMARILY
NE NJ AND THE CITY. NVA...SURFACE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD THEN
KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HOWEVER
SHOWING SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO SOME AREAS COULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES. A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
SHOULD BE 7-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY`S IN MOST CASES.

ALTHOUGH MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST
WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF
BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS.
ALONG THE COAST...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK
LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

HIGH PRES...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...BUILDS OVER THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...A
TIGHTENING EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TRI-
STATE AREA FOR SATURDAY...AND THEN WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH WAA UNDERWAY FOR SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

BERMUDA HIGH PRES THEN STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. HIGHS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND
POSSIBLY AROUND 90 FOR NYC AND NE NJ. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THE RIDGE ALONG THE COAST BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING...THEN CROSSES
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
HAZE ALOFT IS POSSIBLE AT THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WELL. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY TO THE N/W OF CITY TERMINALS. AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN
TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A N-NE FLOW UNDER 10 KT
AT CITY TERMINALS BY MID-LATE MORNING AND AT KTEB/KSWF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE LIKELY AT CT TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
PROBABLE AT KJFK/KISP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE IS PROBABLE AT
KLGA/KEWR BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KTEB
AND KHPN BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT AGAIN THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CITY TERMINALS
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NE-E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. WINDS THEN PICK
UP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY LATE AFTN...AND SEAS COULD RISE
TO 5 FT BY EVENING AS WELL OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WEAKER AND LATER WITH INCREASING WINDS...PLUS
WAVEWATCH HAS DELAYED THE ONSET OF 5 FT SEAS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS. ADD TO THIS THAT WOULD BE A LATE THIRD-PERIOD EVENT...WILL
THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON SCA ISSUANCE FOR NOW AND LET THE DAY SHIFT SEE
IF TRENDS CONTINUE AND ISSUE SCA AS NECESSARY.

A TIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS ON
SATURDAY...AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ARE LIKELY
ON THE OCEAN WATERS BEFORE CONDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT.

WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK...CONDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030658
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
258 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND PASSES THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE KEEPS US DRY DURING THE MORNING. A
COLD FRONT THEN COMBINES WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE AND JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN.

WENT CLOSER TO MAV MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT AND
EXPECTED TIMING OF SEA BREEZES AND CLOUD COVER. HIGHS THEREFORE
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST CASES.
DEWPOINTS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
HEAT ADVISORIES...AND WILL MAINLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN
THE TEMPERATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT WITH LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN THIS EVENING. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE
PUSHING SOUTH THEN KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SOME
SECTIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE SW
WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING FOR PRIMARILY
NE NJ AND THE CITY. NVA...SURFACE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD THEN
KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HOWEVER
SHOWING SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO SOME AREAS COULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES. A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
SHOULD BE 7-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY`S IN MOST CASES.

ALTHOUGH MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST
WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF
BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS.
ALONG THE COAST...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK
LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

HIGH PRES...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...BUILDS OVER THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...A
TIGHTENING EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TRI-
STATE AREA FOR SATURDAY...AND THEN WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH WAA UNDERWAY FOR SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

BERMUDA HIGH PRES THEN STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. HIGHS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND
POSSIBLY AROUND 90 FOR NYC AND NE NJ. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THE RIDGE ALONG THE COAST BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING...THEN CROSSES
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
HAZE ALOFT IS POSSIBLE AT THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WELL. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY TO THE N/W OF CITY TERMINALS. AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN
TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A N-NE FLOW UNDER 10 KT
AT CITY TERMINALS BY MID-LATE MORNING AND AT KTEB/KSWF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE LIKELY AT CT TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
PROBABLE AT KJFK/KISP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE IS PROBABLE AT
KLGA/KEWR BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KTEB
AND KHPN BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT AGAIN THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CITY TERMINALS
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NE-E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. WINDS THEN PICK
UP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY LATE AFTN...AND SEAS COULD RISE
TO 5 FT BY EVENING AS WELL OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WEAKER AND LATER WITH INCREASING WINDS...PLUS
WAVEWATCH HAS DELAYED THE ONSET OF 5 FT SEAS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS. ADD TO THIS THAT WOULD BE A LATE THIRD-PERIOD EVENT...WILL
THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON SCA ISSUANCE FOR NOW AND LET THE DAY SHIFT SEE
IF TRENDS CONTINUE AND ISSUE SCA AS NECESSARY.

A TIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS ON
SATURDAY...AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ARE LIKELY
ON THE OCEAN WATERS BEFORE CONDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT.

WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK...CONDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS





000
FXUS61 KOKX 030658
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
258 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND PASSES THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE KEEPS US DRY DURING THE MORNING. A
COLD FRONT THEN COMBINES WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE AND JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN.

WENT CLOSER TO MAV MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT AND
EXPECTED TIMING OF SEA BREEZES AND CLOUD COVER. HIGHS THEREFORE
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST CASES.
DEWPOINTS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
HEAT ADVISORIES...AND WILL MAINLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN
THE TEMPERATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT WITH LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN THIS EVENING. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE
PUSHING SOUTH THEN KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SOME
SECTIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE SW
WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING FOR PRIMARILY
NE NJ AND THE CITY. NVA...SURFACE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD THEN
KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HOWEVER
SHOWING SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO SOME AREAS COULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES. A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
SHOULD BE 7-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY`S IN MOST CASES.

ALTHOUGH MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST
WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF
BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS.
ALONG THE COAST...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK
LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

HIGH PRES...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...BUILDS OVER THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...A
TIGHTENING EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TRI-
STATE AREA FOR SATURDAY...AND THEN WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH WAA UNDERWAY FOR SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

BERMUDA HIGH PRES THEN STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. HIGHS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND
POSSIBLY AROUND 90 FOR NYC AND NE NJ. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THE RIDGE ALONG THE COAST BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING...THEN CROSSES
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
HAZE ALOFT IS POSSIBLE AT THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WELL. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY TO THE N/W OF CITY TERMINALS. AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN
TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A N-NE FLOW UNDER 10 KT
AT CITY TERMINALS BY MID-LATE MORNING AND AT KTEB/KSWF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE LIKELY AT CT TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
PROBABLE AT KJFK/KISP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE IS PROBABLE AT
KLGA/KEWR BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KTEB
AND KHPN BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT AGAIN THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CITY TERMINALS
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NE-E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. WINDS THEN PICK
UP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY LATE AFTN...AND SEAS COULD RISE
TO 5 FT BY EVENING AS WELL OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WEAKER AND LATER WITH INCREASING WINDS...PLUS
WAVEWATCH HAS DELAYED THE ONSET OF 5 FT SEAS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS. ADD TO THIS THAT WOULD BE A LATE THIRD-PERIOD EVENT...WILL
THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON SCA ISSUANCE FOR NOW AND LET THE DAY SHIFT SEE
IF TRENDS CONTINUE AND ISSUE SCA AS NECESSARY.

A TIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS ON
SATURDAY...AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ARE LIKELY
ON THE OCEAN WATERS BEFORE CONDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT.

WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK...CONDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030658
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
258 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND PASSES THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE KEEPS US DRY DURING THE MORNING. A
COLD FRONT THEN COMBINES WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE AND JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN.

WENT CLOSER TO MAV MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT AND
EXPECTED TIMING OF SEA BREEZES AND CLOUD COVER. HIGHS THEREFORE
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST CASES.
DEWPOINTS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
HEAT ADVISORIES...AND WILL MAINLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN
THE TEMPERATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT WITH LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN THIS EVENING. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE
PUSHING SOUTH THEN KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SOME
SECTIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE SW
WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING FOR PRIMARILY
NE NJ AND THE CITY. NVA...SURFACE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD THEN
KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HOWEVER
SHOWING SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO SOME AREAS COULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES. A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
SHOULD BE 7-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY`S IN MOST CASES.

ALTHOUGH MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST
WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF
BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS.
ALONG THE COAST...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK
LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

HIGH PRES...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...BUILDS OVER THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...A
TIGHTENING EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TRI-
STATE AREA FOR SATURDAY...AND THEN WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH WAA UNDERWAY FOR SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

BERMUDA HIGH PRES THEN STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. HIGHS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND
POSSIBLY AROUND 90 FOR NYC AND NE NJ. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THE RIDGE ALONG THE COAST BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING...THEN CROSSES
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
HAZE ALOFT IS POSSIBLE AT THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WELL. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY TO THE N/W OF CITY TERMINALS. AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN
TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A N-NE FLOW UNDER 10 KT
AT CITY TERMINALS BY MID-LATE MORNING AND AT KTEB/KSWF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE LIKELY AT CT TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
PROBABLE AT KJFK/KISP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE IS PROBABLE AT
KLGA/KEWR BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KTEB
AND KHPN BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT AGAIN THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CITY TERMINALS
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NE-E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. WINDS THEN PICK
UP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY LATE AFTN...AND SEAS COULD RISE
TO 5 FT BY EVENING AS WELL OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WEAKER AND LATER WITH INCREASING WINDS...PLUS
WAVEWATCH HAS DELAYED THE ONSET OF 5 FT SEAS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS. ADD TO THIS THAT WOULD BE A LATE THIRD-PERIOD EVENT...WILL
THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON SCA ISSUANCE FOR NOW AND LET THE DAY SHIFT SEE
IF TRENDS CONTINUE AND ISSUE SCA AS NECESSARY.

A TIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS ON
SATURDAY...AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ARE LIKELY
ON THE OCEAN WATERS BEFORE CONDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT.

WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK...CONDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS





000
FXUS61 KOKX 030603
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
203 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON THURSDAY AND MOVES ACROSS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE FOG ACROSS
METRO NY AND MAINLY CONFINED IT TO THE OUTLYING SUBURBS. THE MAIN
AREA AGAIN LOOKS TO BE EASTERN LONG ISLAND/SE CT.

A SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND
GIVES WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT FOG DEVELOPS AND THE COVERAGE.
LAST NIGHT IT WAS PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S
AND SIMILAR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LATE THURSDAY THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFF
THE CANADIAN AND NORTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE IS WEAK WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CAPE OF 500 TO 1200
J/KG. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS  AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. BY 06Z
FRIDAY INSTABILITY DECREASES ALONG WITH CAPE AND WILL TRANSITION TO
JUST SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FLATTENING NEXT WEEK.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE TRI-
STATE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH AND BEFORE MOISTURE/WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEPART. MAIN STORY WILL BE A COOLER AND DRIER
CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT.

ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON
FRIDAY MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO
400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE
COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI AFT INTO
SAT DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES. HIGHS SHOULD RUN NEAR
SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION AND MERGES WITH BERMUDA
HIGH. A STEADY MODERATION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS LIKELY SUN THROUGH
WED...WITH HIGHS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING...THEN CROSSES
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
HAZE ALOFT IS POSSIBLE AT THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WELL. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY TO THE N/W OF CITY TERMINALS. AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN
TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A N-NE FLOW UNDER 10 KT
AT CITY TERMINALS BY MID-LATE MORNING AND AT KTEB/KSWF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE LIKELY AT CT TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
PROBABLE AT KJFK/KISP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE IS PROBABLE AT
KLGA/KEWR BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KTEB
AND KHPN BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT AGAIN THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CITY TERMINALS
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NE-E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS A TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO
NORTHERN JERSEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES INCREASE TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING. WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN
LONG ISLAND SOUND...EASTERN LONG ISLAND BAYS...AND THE OCEAN WATERS
EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND
AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
SUB SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...DW/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...MET/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030603
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
203 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON THURSDAY AND MOVES ACROSS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE FOG ACROSS
METRO NY AND MAINLY CONFINED IT TO THE OUTLYING SUBURBS. THE MAIN
AREA AGAIN LOOKS TO BE EASTERN LONG ISLAND/SE CT.

A SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND
GIVES WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT FOG DEVELOPS AND THE COVERAGE.
LAST NIGHT IT WAS PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S
AND SIMILAR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LATE THURSDAY THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFF
THE CANADIAN AND NORTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE IS WEAK WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CAPE OF 500 TO 1200
J/KG. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS  AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. BY 06Z
FRIDAY INSTABILITY DECREASES ALONG WITH CAPE AND WILL TRANSITION TO
JUST SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FLATTENING NEXT WEEK.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE TRI-
STATE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH AND BEFORE MOISTURE/WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEPART. MAIN STORY WILL BE A COOLER AND DRIER
CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT.

ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON
FRIDAY MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO
400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE
COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI AFT INTO
SAT DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES. HIGHS SHOULD RUN NEAR
SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION AND MERGES WITH BERMUDA
HIGH. A STEADY MODERATION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS LIKELY SUN THROUGH
WED...WITH HIGHS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING...THEN CROSSES
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
HAZE ALOFT IS POSSIBLE AT THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WELL. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY TO THE N/W OF CITY TERMINALS. AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN
TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A N-NE FLOW UNDER 10 KT
AT CITY TERMINALS BY MID-LATE MORNING AND AT KTEB/KSWF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE LIKELY AT CT TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
PROBABLE AT KJFK/KISP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE IS PROBABLE AT
KLGA/KEWR BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KTEB
AND KHPN BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT AGAIN THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CITY TERMINALS
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NE-E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS A TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO
NORTHERN JERSEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES INCREASE TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING. WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN
LONG ISLAND SOUND...EASTERN LONG ISLAND BAYS...AND THE OCEAN WATERS
EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND
AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
SUB SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...DW/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...MET/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 030603
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
203 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON THURSDAY AND MOVES ACROSS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE FOG ACROSS
METRO NY AND MAINLY CONFINED IT TO THE OUTLYING SUBURBS. THE MAIN
AREA AGAIN LOOKS TO BE EASTERN LONG ISLAND/SE CT.

A SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND
GIVES WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT FOG DEVELOPS AND THE COVERAGE.
LAST NIGHT IT WAS PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S
AND SIMILAR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LATE THURSDAY THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFF
THE CANADIAN AND NORTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE IS WEAK WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CAPE OF 500 TO 1200
J/KG. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS  AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. BY 06Z
FRIDAY INSTABILITY DECREASES ALONG WITH CAPE AND WILL TRANSITION TO
JUST SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FLATTENING NEXT WEEK.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE TRI-
STATE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH AND BEFORE MOISTURE/WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEPART. MAIN STORY WILL BE A COOLER AND DRIER
CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT.

ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON
FRIDAY MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO
400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE
COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI AFT INTO
SAT DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES. HIGHS SHOULD RUN NEAR
SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION AND MERGES WITH BERMUDA
HIGH. A STEADY MODERATION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS LIKELY SUN THROUGH
WED...WITH HIGHS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING...THEN CROSSES
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
HAZE ALOFT IS POSSIBLE AT THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WELL. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY TO THE N/W OF CITY TERMINALS. AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN
TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A N-NE FLOW UNDER 10 KT
AT CITY TERMINALS BY MID-LATE MORNING AND AT KTEB/KSWF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE LIKELY AT CT TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
PROBABLE AT KJFK/KISP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE IS PROBABLE AT
KLGA/KEWR BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KTEB
AND KHPN BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT AGAIN THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CITY TERMINALS
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NE-E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS A TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO
NORTHERN JERSEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES INCREASE TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING. WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN
LONG ISLAND SOUND...EASTERN LONG ISLAND BAYS...AND THE OCEAN WATERS
EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND
AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
SUB SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...DW/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...MET/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 030603
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
203 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON THURSDAY AND MOVES ACROSS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE FOG ACROSS
METRO NY AND MAINLY CONFINED IT TO THE OUTLYING SUBURBS. THE MAIN
AREA AGAIN LOOKS TO BE EASTERN LONG ISLAND/SE CT.

A SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND
GIVES WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT FOG DEVELOPS AND THE COVERAGE.
LAST NIGHT IT WAS PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S
AND SIMILAR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LATE THURSDAY THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFF
THE CANADIAN AND NORTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE IS WEAK WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CAPE OF 500 TO 1200
J/KG. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS  AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. BY 06Z
FRIDAY INSTABILITY DECREASES ALONG WITH CAPE AND WILL TRANSITION TO
JUST SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FLATTENING NEXT WEEK.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE TRI-
STATE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH AND BEFORE MOISTURE/WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEPART. MAIN STORY WILL BE A COOLER AND DRIER
CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT.

ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON
FRIDAY MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO
400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE
COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI AFT INTO
SAT DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES. HIGHS SHOULD RUN NEAR
SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION AND MERGES WITH BERMUDA
HIGH. A STEADY MODERATION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS LIKELY SUN THROUGH
WED...WITH HIGHS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING...THEN CROSSES
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
HAZE ALOFT IS POSSIBLE AT THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WELL. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY TO THE N/W OF CITY TERMINALS. AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN
TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A N-NE FLOW UNDER 10 KT
AT CITY TERMINALS BY MID-LATE MORNING AND AT KTEB/KSWF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE LIKELY AT CT TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
PROBABLE AT KJFK/KISP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE IS PROBABLE AT
KLGA/KEWR BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KTEB
AND KHPN BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT AGAIN THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CITY TERMINALS
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NE-E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS A TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO
NORTHERN JERSEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES INCREASE TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING. WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN
LONG ISLAND SOUND...EASTERN LONG ISLAND BAYS...AND THE OCEAN WATERS
EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND
AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
SUB SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...DW/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...MET/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030245
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1045 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON THURSDAY AND MOVES ACROSS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE FOG ACROSS
METRO NY AND MAINLY CONFINED IT TO THE OUTLYING SUBURBS. THE MAIN
AREA AGAIN LOOKS TO BE EASTERN LI/SE CT.

A SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND
GIVES WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT FOG DEVELOPS AND THE COVERAGE.
LAST NIGHT IT WAS PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S
AND SIMILAR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LATE THURSDAY THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFF
THE CANADIAN AND NORTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE IS WEAK WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CAPE OF 500 TO 1200
J/KG. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS  AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. BY 06Z
FRIDAY INSTABILITY DECREASES ALONG WITH CAPE AND WILL TRANSITION TO
JUST SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FLATTENING NEXT WEEK.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE TRI-
STATE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH AND BEFORE MOISTURE/WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEPART. MAIN STORY WILL BE A COOLER AND DRIER
CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT.

ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON
FRIDAY MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO
400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE
COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI AFT INTO
SAT DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES. HIGHS SHOULD RUN NEAR
SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION AND MERGES WITH BERMUDA
HIGH. A STEADY MODERATION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS LIKELY SUN THROUGH
WED...WITH HIGHS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH MOVING IN LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VFR INITIALLY BUT CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN
FOG OVERNIGHT AT OUTLYING TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN. TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST. SOME ISOLATED CONDITIONS OF
BELOW IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY DURING THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON. WIND SPEED EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 10
KT.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AS THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRIDAY..CHANCE OF MVFR STRATUS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR.
ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS A TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO
NORTHERN JERSEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES INCREASE TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING. WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN
LONG ISLAND SOUND...EASTERN LONG ISLAND BAYS...AND THE OCEAN WATERS
EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND
NEARSHORE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...MET/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 030245
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1045 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON THURSDAY AND MOVES ACROSS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE FOG ACROSS
METRO NY AND MAINLY CONFINED IT TO THE OUTLYING SUBURBS. THE MAIN
AREA AGAIN LOOKS TO BE EASTERN LI/SE CT.

A SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND
GIVES WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT FOG DEVELOPS AND THE COVERAGE.
LAST NIGHT IT WAS PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S
AND SIMILAR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LATE THURSDAY THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFF
THE CANADIAN AND NORTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE IS WEAK WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CAPE OF 500 TO 1200
J/KG. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS  AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. BY 06Z
FRIDAY INSTABILITY DECREASES ALONG WITH CAPE AND WILL TRANSITION TO
JUST SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FLATTENING NEXT WEEK.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE TRI-
STATE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH AND BEFORE MOISTURE/WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEPART. MAIN STORY WILL BE A COOLER AND DRIER
CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT.

ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON
FRIDAY MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO
400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE
COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI AFT INTO
SAT DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES. HIGHS SHOULD RUN NEAR
SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION AND MERGES WITH BERMUDA
HIGH. A STEADY MODERATION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS LIKELY SUN THROUGH
WED...WITH HIGHS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH MOVING IN LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VFR INITIALLY BUT CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN
FOG OVERNIGHT AT OUTLYING TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN. TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST. SOME ISOLATED CONDITIONS OF
BELOW IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY DURING THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON. WIND SPEED EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 10
KT.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AS THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRIDAY..CHANCE OF MVFR STRATUS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR.
ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS A TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO
NORTHERN JERSEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES INCREASE TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING. WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN
LONG ISLAND SOUND...EASTERN LONG ISLAND BAYS...AND THE OCEAN WATERS
EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND
NEARSHORE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...MET/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030245
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1045 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON THURSDAY AND MOVES ACROSS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE FOG ACROSS
METRO NY AND MAINLY CONFINED IT TO THE OUTLYING SUBURBS. THE MAIN
AREA AGAIN LOOKS TO BE EASTERN LI/SE CT.

A SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND
GIVES WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT FOG DEVELOPS AND THE COVERAGE.
LAST NIGHT IT WAS PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S
AND SIMILAR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LATE THURSDAY THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFF
THE CANADIAN AND NORTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE IS WEAK WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CAPE OF 500 TO 1200
J/KG. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS  AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. BY 06Z
FRIDAY INSTABILITY DECREASES ALONG WITH CAPE AND WILL TRANSITION TO
JUST SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FLATTENING NEXT WEEK.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE TRI-
STATE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH AND BEFORE MOISTURE/WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEPART. MAIN STORY WILL BE A COOLER AND DRIER
CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT.

ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON
FRIDAY MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO
400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE
COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI AFT INTO
SAT DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES. HIGHS SHOULD RUN NEAR
SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION AND MERGES WITH BERMUDA
HIGH. A STEADY MODERATION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS LIKELY SUN THROUGH
WED...WITH HIGHS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH MOVING IN LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VFR INITIALLY BUT CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN
FOG OVERNIGHT AT OUTLYING TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN. TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST. SOME ISOLATED CONDITIONS OF
BELOW IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY DURING THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON. WIND SPEED EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 10
KT.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AS THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRIDAY..CHANCE OF MVFR STRATUS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR.
ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS A TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO
NORTHERN JERSEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES INCREASE TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING. WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN
LONG ISLAND SOUND...EASTERN LONG ISLAND BAYS...AND THE OCEAN WATERS
EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND
NEARSHORE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...MET/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 030245
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1045 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON THURSDAY AND MOVES ACROSS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE FOG ACROSS
METRO NY AND MAINLY CONFINED IT TO THE OUTLYING SUBURBS. THE MAIN
AREA AGAIN LOOKS TO BE EASTERN LI/SE CT.

A SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND
GIVES WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT FOG DEVELOPS AND THE COVERAGE.
LAST NIGHT IT WAS PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S
AND SIMILAR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LATE THURSDAY THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFF
THE CANADIAN AND NORTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE IS WEAK WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CAPE OF 500 TO 1200
J/KG. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS  AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. BY 06Z
FRIDAY INSTABILITY DECREASES ALONG WITH CAPE AND WILL TRANSITION TO
JUST SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FLATTENING NEXT WEEK.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE TRI-
STATE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH AND BEFORE MOISTURE/WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEPART. MAIN STORY WILL BE A COOLER AND DRIER
CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT.

ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON
FRIDAY MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO
400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE
COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI AFT INTO
SAT DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES. HIGHS SHOULD RUN NEAR
SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION AND MERGES WITH BERMUDA
HIGH. A STEADY MODERATION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS LIKELY SUN THROUGH
WED...WITH HIGHS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH MOVING IN LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VFR INITIALLY BUT CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN
FOG OVERNIGHT AT OUTLYING TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN. TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST. SOME ISOLATED CONDITIONS OF
BELOW IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY DURING THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON. WIND SPEED EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 10
KT.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AS THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRIDAY..CHANCE OF MVFR STRATUS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR.
ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS A TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO
NORTHERN JERSEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES INCREASE TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING. WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN
LONG ISLAND SOUND...EASTERN LONG ISLAND BAYS...AND THE OCEAN WATERS
EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND
NEARSHORE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...MET/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030019
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
819 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON THURSDAY AND MOVES ACROSS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AND GIVES WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT FOG DEVELOPS AND THE
COVERAGE. LAST NIGHT IT WAS PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER TONIGHT...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
MORE COVERAGE.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S
AND SIMILAR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LATE THURSDAY THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFF
THE CANADIAN AND NORTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE IS WEAK WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CAPE OF 500 TO 1200
J/KG. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS  AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. BY 06Z
FRIDAY INSTABILITY DECREASES ALONG WITH CAPE AND WILL TRANSITION TO
JUST SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FLATTENING NEXT WEEK.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE TRI-
STATE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH AND BEFORE MOISTURE/WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEPART. MAIN STORY WILL BE A COOLER AND DRIER
CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT.

ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON
FRIDAY MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO
400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE
COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI AFT INTO
SAT DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES. HIGHS SHOULD RUN NEAR
SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION AND MERGES WITH BERMUDA
HIGH. A STEADY MODERATION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS LIKELY SUN THROUGH
WED...WITH HIGHS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH MOVING IN LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VFR INTO THIS EVENING BUT CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR IN FOG LATE TONIGHT AT OUTLYING TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN.
TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST.

S WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT INTO THURSDAY WITH SEA
BREEZES LIKELY DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AS THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR VSBYS. SEA BREEZE TIMING THURSDAY COULD BE 1-2 HOURS
OFF FROM FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR VSBYS. SEA BREEZE TIMING THURSDAY COULD BE 1-2 HOURS
OFF FROM FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR VSBYS. SEA BREEZE TIMING THURSDAY COULD BE 1-2 HOURS
OFF FROM FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 2-3 HOURS. BELOW
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 2-3 HOURS. BELOW
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRIDAY..CHANCE OF MVFR STRATUS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR.
ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS A TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO
NORTHERN JERSEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES INCREASE TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING. WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN
LONG ISLAND SOUND...EASTERN LONG ISLAND BAYS...AND THE OCEAN WATERS
EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND
NEARSHORE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...MET/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030019
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
819 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON THURSDAY AND MOVES ACROSS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AND GIVES WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT FOG DEVELOPS AND THE
COVERAGE. LAST NIGHT IT WAS PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER TONIGHT...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
MORE COVERAGE.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S
AND SIMILAR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LATE THURSDAY THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFF
THE CANADIAN AND NORTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE IS WEAK WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CAPE OF 500 TO 1200
J/KG. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS  AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. BY 06Z
FRIDAY INSTABILITY DECREASES ALONG WITH CAPE AND WILL TRANSITION TO
JUST SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FLATTENING NEXT WEEK.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE TRI-
STATE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH AND BEFORE MOISTURE/WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEPART. MAIN STORY WILL BE A COOLER AND DRIER
CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT.

ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON
FRIDAY MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO
400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE
COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI AFT INTO
SAT DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES. HIGHS SHOULD RUN NEAR
SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION AND MERGES WITH BERMUDA
HIGH. A STEADY MODERATION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS LIKELY SUN THROUGH
WED...WITH HIGHS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH MOVING IN LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VFR INTO THIS EVENING BUT CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR IN FOG LATE TONIGHT AT OUTLYING TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN.
TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST.

S WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT INTO THURSDAY WITH SEA
BREEZES LIKELY DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AS THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR VSBYS. SEA BREEZE TIMING THURSDAY COULD BE 1-2 HOURS
OFF FROM FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR VSBYS. SEA BREEZE TIMING THURSDAY COULD BE 1-2 HOURS
OFF FROM FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR VSBYS. SEA BREEZE TIMING THURSDAY COULD BE 1-2 HOURS
OFF FROM FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 2-3 HOURS. BELOW
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 2-3 HOURS. BELOW
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRIDAY..CHANCE OF MVFR STRATUS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR.
ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS A TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO
NORTHERN JERSEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES INCREASE TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING. WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN
LONG ISLAND SOUND...EASTERN LONG ISLAND BAYS...AND THE OCEAN WATERS
EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND
NEARSHORE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...MET/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 030019
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
819 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON THURSDAY AND MOVES ACROSS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AND GIVES WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT FOG DEVELOPS AND THE
COVERAGE. LAST NIGHT IT WAS PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER TONIGHT...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
MORE COVERAGE.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S
AND SIMILAR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LATE THURSDAY THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFF
THE CANADIAN AND NORTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE IS WEAK WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CAPE OF 500 TO 1200
J/KG. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS  AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. BY 06Z
FRIDAY INSTABILITY DECREASES ALONG WITH CAPE AND WILL TRANSITION TO
JUST SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FLATTENING NEXT WEEK.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE TRI-
STATE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH AND BEFORE MOISTURE/WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEPART. MAIN STORY WILL BE A COOLER AND DRIER
CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT.

ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON
FRIDAY MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO
400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE
COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI AFT INTO
SAT DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES. HIGHS SHOULD RUN NEAR
SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION AND MERGES WITH BERMUDA
HIGH. A STEADY MODERATION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS LIKELY SUN THROUGH
WED...WITH HIGHS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH MOVING IN LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VFR INTO THIS EVENING BUT CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR IN FOG LATE TONIGHT AT OUTLYING TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN.
TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST.

S WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT INTO THURSDAY WITH SEA
BREEZES LIKELY DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AS THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR VSBYS. SEA BREEZE TIMING THURSDAY COULD BE 1-2 HOURS
OFF FROM FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR VSBYS. SEA BREEZE TIMING THURSDAY COULD BE 1-2 HOURS
OFF FROM FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR VSBYS. SEA BREEZE TIMING THURSDAY COULD BE 1-2 HOURS
OFF FROM FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 2-3 HOURS. BELOW
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 2-3 HOURS. BELOW
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRIDAY..CHANCE OF MVFR STRATUS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR.
ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS A TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO
NORTHERN JERSEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES INCREASE TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING. WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN
LONG ISLAND SOUND...EASTERN LONG ISLAND BAYS...AND THE OCEAN WATERS
EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND
NEARSHORE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...MET/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030019
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
819 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON THURSDAY AND MOVES ACROSS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AND GIVES WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT FOG DEVELOPS AND THE
COVERAGE. LAST NIGHT IT WAS PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER TONIGHT...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
MORE COVERAGE.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S
AND SIMILAR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LATE THURSDAY THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFF
THE CANADIAN AND NORTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE IS WEAK WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CAPE OF 500 TO 1200
J/KG. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS  AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. BY 06Z
FRIDAY INSTABILITY DECREASES ALONG WITH CAPE AND WILL TRANSITION TO
JUST SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FLATTENING NEXT WEEK.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE TRI-
STATE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH AND BEFORE MOISTURE/WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEPART. MAIN STORY WILL BE A COOLER AND DRIER
CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT.

ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON
FRIDAY MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO
400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE
COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI AFT INTO
SAT DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES. HIGHS SHOULD RUN NEAR
SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION AND MERGES WITH BERMUDA
HIGH. A STEADY MODERATION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS LIKELY SUN THROUGH
WED...WITH HIGHS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH MOVING IN LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VFR INTO THIS EVENING BUT CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR IN FOG LATE TONIGHT AT OUTLYING TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN.
TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST.

S WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT INTO THURSDAY WITH SEA
BREEZES LIKELY DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AS THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR VSBYS. SEA BREEZE TIMING THURSDAY COULD BE 1-2 HOURS
OFF FROM FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR VSBYS. SEA BREEZE TIMING THURSDAY COULD BE 1-2 HOURS
OFF FROM FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR VSBYS. SEA BREEZE TIMING THURSDAY COULD BE 1-2 HOURS
OFF FROM FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 2-3 HOURS. BELOW
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 2-3 HOURS. BELOW
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRIDAY..CHANCE OF MVFR STRATUS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR.
ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS A TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO
NORTHERN JERSEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES INCREASE TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING. WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN
LONG ISLAND SOUND...EASTERN LONG ISLAND BAYS...AND THE OCEAN WATERS
EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND
NEARSHORE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...MET/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 021947
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
347 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN TONIGHT...DRIFTING SOUTH
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONE SHORTWAVE MOVES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DIGS INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST. MEANWHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAIN IN THE AREA
ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. CLEAR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WIDESPREAD FOG IS LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LATE THURSDAY THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFF
THE CANADIAN AND NORTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE IS WEAK WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CAPE OF 500 TO 1200
J/KG. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS  AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. BY 06Z
FRIDAY INSTABILITY DECREASES ALONG WITH CAPE AND WILL TRANSITION TO
JUST SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FLATTENING NEXT WEEK.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE TRI-
STATE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH AND BEFORE MOISTURE/WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEPART. MAIN STORY WILL BE A COOLER AND DRIER
CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT.

ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON
FRIDAY MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO
400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE
COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI AFT INTO
SAT DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES. HIGHS SHOULD RUN NEAR
SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION AND MERGES WITH BERMUDA
HIGH. A STEADY MODERATION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS LIKELY SUN THROUGH
WED...WITH HIGHS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AT OUTLYING TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN.

S WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KT TODAY. SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE NYC METRO AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VRB THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRIDAY..CHANCE OF MVFR STRATUS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR.
ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS A TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO
NORTHERN JERSEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES INCREASE TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING. WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN
LONG ISLAND SOUND...EASTERN LONG ISLAND BAYS...AND THE OCEAN WATERS
EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...MET/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 021947
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
347 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN TONIGHT...DRIFTING SOUTH
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONE SHORTWAVE MOVES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DIGS INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST. MEANWHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAIN IN THE AREA
ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. CLEAR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WIDESPREAD FOG IS LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LATE THURSDAY THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFF
THE CANADIAN AND NORTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE IS WEAK WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CAPE OF 500 TO 1200
J/KG. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS  AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. BY 06Z
FRIDAY INSTABILITY DECREASES ALONG WITH CAPE AND WILL TRANSITION TO
JUST SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FLATTENING NEXT WEEK.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE TRI-
STATE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH AND BEFORE MOISTURE/WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEPART. MAIN STORY WILL BE A COOLER AND DRIER
CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT.

ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON
FRIDAY MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO
400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE
COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI AFT INTO
SAT DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES. HIGHS SHOULD RUN NEAR
SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION AND MERGES WITH BERMUDA
HIGH. A STEADY MODERATION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS LIKELY SUN THROUGH
WED...WITH HIGHS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AT OUTLYING TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN.

S WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KT TODAY. SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE NYC METRO AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VRB THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRIDAY..CHANCE OF MVFR STRATUS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR.
ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS A TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO
NORTHERN JERSEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES INCREASE TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING. WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN
LONG ISLAND SOUND...EASTERN LONG ISLAND BAYS...AND THE OCEAN WATERS
EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...MET/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 021730
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
130 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE
AND MERGES WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EXTENDED
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AT MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EAST OF LONG ISLAND. NO FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AS CLEARING OCCURRED THIS MORNING AND
RAISED AFTERNOON HIGHS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. A SEA BREEZE
SHOULD HALT FURTHER TEMPERATURE RISES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THRU THU MORNING...WARM AND DRY WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG.

THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT...A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOLLOWING
THE LAST 90 DEG DAY IN THIS STRETCH. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL ALLOW A CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO
BUILD SOUTH PUSHING A MORE SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION. BASED ON MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM FEATURES...POPS WERE
INCREASED TO 30-40 PCT FOR SCT TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT.

INCREASING NE AND E WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
USHERING IN A MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS WITH FORECAST TEMPS AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE THEN GETS ABSORBED INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE REGION THEN REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH
DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...
FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE NYC METRO SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR-AROUND 90
DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 90 DEGREES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR AROUND 90 IN URBAN
AREAS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AT OUTLYING TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN.

S WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KT TODAY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB
THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRIDAY..CHANCE OF MVFR STRATUS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR.
ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND WAS NEAR CALM ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS AS A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5-6
FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS
OF LESS THAN KT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE 10 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1/4 INCH
IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GC/MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 021730
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
130 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE
AND MERGES WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EXTENDED
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AT MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EAST OF LONG ISLAND. NO FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AS CLEARING OCCURRED THIS MORNING AND
RAISED AFTERNOON HIGHS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. A SEA BREEZE
SHOULD HALT FURTHER TEMPERATURE RISES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THRU THU MORNING...WARM AND DRY WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG.

THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT...A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOLLOWING
THE LAST 90 DEG DAY IN THIS STRETCH. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL ALLOW A CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO
BUILD SOUTH PUSHING A MORE SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION. BASED ON MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM FEATURES...POPS WERE
INCREASED TO 30-40 PCT FOR SCT TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT.

INCREASING NE AND E WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
USHERING IN A MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS WITH FORECAST TEMPS AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE THEN GETS ABSORBED INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE REGION THEN REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH
DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...
FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE NYC METRO SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR-AROUND 90
DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 90 DEGREES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR AROUND 90 IN URBAN
AREAS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AT OUTLYING TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN.

S WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KT TODAY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB
THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRIDAY..CHANCE OF MVFR STRATUS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR.
ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND WAS NEAR CALM ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS AS A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5-6
FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS
OF LESS THAN KT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE 10 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1/4 INCH
IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GC/MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 021730
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
130 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE
AND MERGES WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EXTENDED
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AT MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EAST OF LONG ISLAND. NO FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AS CLEARING OCCURRED THIS MORNING AND
RAISED AFTERNOON HIGHS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. A SEA BREEZE
SHOULD HALT FURTHER TEMPERATURE RISES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THRU THU MORNING...WARM AND DRY WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG.

THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT...A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOLLOWING
THE LAST 90 DEG DAY IN THIS STRETCH. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL ALLOW A CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO
BUILD SOUTH PUSHING A MORE SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION. BASED ON MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM FEATURES...POPS WERE
INCREASED TO 30-40 PCT FOR SCT TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT.

INCREASING NE AND E WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
USHERING IN A MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS WITH FORECAST TEMPS AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE THEN GETS ABSORBED INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE REGION THEN REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH
DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...
FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE NYC METRO SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR-AROUND 90
DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 90 DEGREES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR AROUND 90 IN URBAN
AREAS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AT OUTLYING TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN.

S WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KT TODAY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB
THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRIDAY..CHANCE OF MVFR STRATUS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR.
ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND WAS NEAR CALM ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS AS A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5-6
FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS
OF LESS THAN KT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE 10 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1/4 INCH
IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GC/MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 021730
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
130 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE
AND MERGES WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EXTENDED
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AT MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EAST OF LONG ISLAND. NO FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AS CLEARING OCCURRED THIS MORNING AND
RAISED AFTERNOON HIGHS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. A SEA BREEZE
SHOULD HALT FURTHER TEMPERATURE RISES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THRU THU MORNING...WARM AND DRY WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG.

THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT...A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOLLOWING
THE LAST 90 DEG DAY IN THIS STRETCH. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL ALLOW A CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO
BUILD SOUTH PUSHING A MORE SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION. BASED ON MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM FEATURES...POPS WERE
INCREASED TO 30-40 PCT FOR SCT TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT.

INCREASING NE AND E WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
USHERING IN A MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS WITH FORECAST TEMPS AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE THEN GETS ABSORBED INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE REGION THEN REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH
DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...
FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE NYC METRO SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR-AROUND 90
DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 90 DEGREES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR AROUND 90 IN URBAN
AREAS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AT OUTLYING TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN.

S WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KT TODAY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB
THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRIDAY..CHANCE OF MVFR STRATUS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR.
ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND WAS NEAR CALM ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS AS A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5-6
FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS
OF LESS THAN KT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE 10 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1/4 INCH
IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GC/MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 021637
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1237 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE
AND MERGES WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EXTENDED
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AT MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EAST OF LONG ISLAND. NO FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AS CLEARING OCCURRED THIS MORNING AND
RAISED AFTERNOON HIGHS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. A SEA BREEZE
SHOULD HALT FURTHER TEMPERATURE RISES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THRU THU MORNING...WARM AND DRY WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG.

THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT...A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOLLOWING
THE LAST 90 DEG DAY IN THIS STRETCH. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL ALLOW A CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO
BUILD SOUTH PUSHING A MORE SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION. BASED ON MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM FEATURES...POPS WERE
INCREASED TO 30-40 PCT FOR SCT TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT.

INCREASING NE AND E WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
USHERING IN A MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS WITH FORECAST TEMPS AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE THEN GETS ABSORBED INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE REGION THEN REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH
DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...
FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE NYC METRO SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR-AROUND 90
DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 90 DEGREES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR AROUND 90 IN URBAN
AREAS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DISSIPATED. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...HAZE WILL CONITNUE ACROSS MANY OF
THE TERMINALS. FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT OUTLYING
TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN.

S WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KT TODAY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB
THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON
WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND WAS NEAR CALM ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS AS A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5-6
FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS
OF LESS THAN KT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE 10 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1/4 INCH
IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GC/MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 021637
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1237 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE
AND MERGES WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EXTENDED
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AT MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EAST OF LONG ISLAND. NO FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AS CLEARING OCCURRED THIS MORNING AND
RAISED AFTERNOON HIGHS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. A SEA BREEZE
SHOULD HALT FURTHER TEMPERATURE RISES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THRU THU MORNING...WARM AND DRY WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG.

THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT...A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOLLOWING
THE LAST 90 DEG DAY IN THIS STRETCH. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL ALLOW A CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO
BUILD SOUTH PUSHING A MORE SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION. BASED ON MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM FEATURES...POPS WERE
INCREASED TO 30-40 PCT FOR SCT TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT.

INCREASING NE AND E WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
USHERING IN A MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS WITH FORECAST TEMPS AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE THEN GETS ABSORBED INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE REGION THEN REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH
DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...
FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE NYC METRO SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR-AROUND 90
DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 90 DEGREES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR AROUND 90 IN URBAN
AREAS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DISSIPATED. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...HAZE WILL CONITNUE ACROSS MANY OF
THE TERMINALS. FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT OUTLYING
TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN.

S WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KT TODAY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB
THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON
WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND WAS NEAR CALM ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS AS A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5-6
FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS
OF LESS THAN KT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE 10 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1/4 INCH
IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GC/MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 021637
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1237 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE
AND MERGES WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EXTENDED
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AT MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EAST OF LONG ISLAND. NO FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AS CLEARING OCCURRED THIS MORNING AND
RAISED AFTERNOON HIGHS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. A SEA BREEZE
SHOULD HALT FURTHER TEMPERATURE RISES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THRU THU MORNING...WARM AND DRY WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG.

THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT...A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOLLOWING
THE LAST 90 DEG DAY IN THIS STRETCH. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL ALLOW A CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO
BUILD SOUTH PUSHING A MORE SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION. BASED ON MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM FEATURES...POPS WERE
INCREASED TO 30-40 PCT FOR SCT TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT.

INCREASING NE AND E WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
USHERING IN A MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS WITH FORECAST TEMPS AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE THEN GETS ABSORBED INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE REGION THEN REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH
DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...
FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE NYC METRO SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR-AROUND 90
DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 90 DEGREES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR AROUND 90 IN URBAN
AREAS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DISSIPATED. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...HAZE WILL CONITNUE ACROSS MANY OF
THE TERMINALS. FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT OUTLYING
TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN.

S WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KT TODAY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB
THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON
WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND WAS NEAR CALM ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS AS A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5-6
FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS
OF LESS THAN KT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE 10 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1/4 INCH
IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GC/MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 021637
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1237 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE
AND MERGES WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EXTENDED
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AT MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EAST OF LONG ISLAND. NO FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AS CLEARING OCCURRED THIS MORNING AND
RAISED AFTERNOON HIGHS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. A SEA BREEZE
SHOULD HALT FURTHER TEMPERATURE RISES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THRU THU MORNING...WARM AND DRY WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG.

THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT...A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOLLOWING
THE LAST 90 DEG DAY IN THIS STRETCH. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL ALLOW A CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO
BUILD SOUTH PUSHING A MORE SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION. BASED ON MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM FEATURES...POPS WERE
INCREASED TO 30-40 PCT FOR SCT TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT.

INCREASING NE AND E WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
USHERING IN A MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS WITH FORECAST TEMPS AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE THEN GETS ABSORBED INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE REGION THEN REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH
DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...
FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE NYC METRO SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR-AROUND 90
DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 90 DEGREES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR AROUND 90 IN URBAN
AREAS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DISSIPATED. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...HAZE WILL CONITNUE ACROSS MANY OF
THE TERMINALS. FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT OUTLYING
TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN.

S WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KT TODAY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB
THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON
WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND WAS NEAR CALM ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS AS A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5-6
FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS
OF LESS THAN KT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE 10 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1/4 INCH
IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GC/MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 021442
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1042 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE
AND MERGES WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING MOVING CLEAR CONDITIONS AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW...SEA
BREEZE HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS MORNING AND AS HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MOVES EAST
THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THROUGH SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. NO FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THRU THU MORNING...WARM AND DRY WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG.

THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT...A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOLLOWING
THE LAST 90 DEG DAY IN THIS STRETCH. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL ALLOW A CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO
BUILD SOUTH PUSHING A MORE SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION. BASED ON MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM FEATURES...POPS WERE
INCREASED TO 30-40 PCT FOR SCT TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT.

INCREASING NE AND E WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
USHERING IN A MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS WITH FORECAST TEMPS AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE THEN GETS ABSORBED INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE REGION THEN REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH
DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...
FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE NYC METRO SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR-AROUND 90
DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 90 DEGREES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR AROUND 90 IN URBAN
AREAS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DISSIPATED. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...HAZE WILL CONITNUE ACROSS MANY OF
THE TERMINALS. FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT
OUTLYING TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN.

S WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KT TODAY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB
THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON
WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND WAS NEAR CALM ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS AS A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5-6
FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS
OF LESS THAN KT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE 10 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1/4 INCH
IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GC/MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 021442
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1042 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE
AND MERGES WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING MOVING CLEAR CONDITIONS AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW...SEA
BREEZE HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS MORNING AND AS HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MOVES EAST
THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THROUGH SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. NO FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THRU THU MORNING...WARM AND DRY WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG.

THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT...A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOLLOWING
THE LAST 90 DEG DAY IN THIS STRETCH. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL ALLOW A CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO
BUILD SOUTH PUSHING A MORE SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION. BASED ON MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM FEATURES...POPS WERE
INCREASED TO 30-40 PCT FOR SCT TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT.

INCREASING NE AND E WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
USHERING IN A MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS WITH FORECAST TEMPS AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE THEN GETS ABSORBED INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE REGION THEN REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH
DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...
FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE NYC METRO SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR-AROUND 90
DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 90 DEGREES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR AROUND 90 IN URBAN
AREAS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DISSIPATED. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...HAZE WILL CONITNUE ACROSS MANY OF
THE TERMINALS. FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT
OUTLYING TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN.

S WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KT TODAY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB
THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON
WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND WAS NEAR CALM ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS AS A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5-6
FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS
OF LESS THAN KT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE 10 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1/4 INCH
IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GC/MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 021133
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
733 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE
AND MERGES WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
UNTIL AROUND 8 AM OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS. A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG MAY BRIEFLY RESTRICT VSBY TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS.

WNW-NW FLOW ALOFT TODAY. WITH WEAK 700 HPA SHORTWAVE AND OPENING
500 HPA CUTOFF LOW STAYING WELL TO THE SE...SO NO FORCING
EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...DRY FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER ON
TRACK FOR TODAY. TO GET THERE THOUGH...NEED FOR PATCHY FOG OUTSIDE
OF URBAN AREAS TO BURN OFF. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN BY AROUND 13Z.
UNTIL THEN...EXPECT THE FOG TO BE LOCALLY DENSE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER LONG ISLAND AND S CT - WHICH HAVE AN SPS
OUT THROUGH 12Z TO ADDRESS THE LOCALLY DENSE FOG THERE.

THE LATE SUMMER HEAT ALONG WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY CONTINUES WITH
THE HIGHEST TEMPS AROUND 90 AND THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND93 IN THE HIGHLY URBAN AREAS INCLUDING NYC.

SEA BREEZES OF 10-15 KT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 18Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THRU THU MORNING...WARM AND DRY WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG.

THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT...A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOLLOWING
THE LAST 90 DEG DAY IN THIS STRETCH. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL ALLOW A CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO
BUILD SOUTH PUSHING A MORE SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION. BASED ON MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM FEATURES...POPS WERE
INCREASED TO 30-40 PCT FOR SCT TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT.

INCREASING NE AND E WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
USHERING IN A MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS WITH FORECAST TEMPS AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE THEN GETS ABSORBED INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE REGION THEN REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH
DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...
FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE NYC METRO SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR-AROUND 90
DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 90 DEGREES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR AROUND 90 IN URBAN
AREAS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY LINGERING MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN BR/STRATUS AT
KHPN/KISP/KGON WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12-13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR.
FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT OUTLYING TERMINALS ONCE
AGAIN.

S WINDS INCREASE TO 5-10 KT LATER THIS MORNING...AND THEN WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VRB THIS EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON
WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5-6
FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS
OF LESS THAN KT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE 10 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1/4 INCH
IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...GC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 021133
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
733 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE
AND MERGES WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
UNTIL AROUND 8 AM OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS. A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG MAY BRIEFLY RESTRICT VSBY TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS.

WNW-NW FLOW ALOFT TODAY. WITH WEAK 700 HPA SHORTWAVE AND OPENING
500 HPA CUTOFF LOW STAYING WELL TO THE SE...SO NO FORCING
EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...DRY FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER ON
TRACK FOR TODAY. TO GET THERE THOUGH...NEED FOR PATCHY FOG OUTSIDE
OF URBAN AREAS TO BURN OFF. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN BY AROUND 13Z.
UNTIL THEN...EXPECT THE FOG TO BE LOCALLY DENSE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER LONG ISLAND AND S CT - WHICH HAVE AN SPS
OUT THROUGH 12Z TO ADDRESS THE LOCALLY DENSE FOG THERE.

THE LATE SUMMER HEAT ALONG WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY CONTINUES WITH
THE HIGHEST TEMPS AROUND 90 AND THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND93 IN THE HIGHLY URBAN AREAS INCLUDING NYC.

SEA BREEZES OF 10-15 KT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 18Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THRU THU MORNING...WARM AND DRY WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG.

THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT...A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOLLOWING
THE LAST 90 DEG DAY IN THIS STRETCH. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL ALLOW A CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO
BUILD SOUTH PUSHING A MORE SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION. BASED ON MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM FEATURES...POPS WERE
INCREASED TO 30-40 PCT FOR SCT TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT.

INCREASING NE AND E WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
USHERING IN A MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS WITH FORECAST TEMPS AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE THEN GETS ABSORBED INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE REGION THEN REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH
DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...
FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE NYC METRO SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR-AROUND 90
DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 90 DEGREES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR AROUND 90 IN URBAN
AREAS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY LINGERING MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN BR/STRATUS AT
KHPN/KISP/KGON WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12-13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR.
FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT OUTLYING TERMINALS ONCE
AGAIN.

S WINDS INCREASE TO 5-10 KT LATER THIS MORNING...AND THEN WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VRB THIS EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON
WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5-6
FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS
OF LESS THAN KT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE 10 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1/4 INCH
IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...GC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 021133
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
733 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE
AND MERGES WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
UNTIL AROUND 8 AM OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS. A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG MAY BRIEFLY RESTRICT VSBY TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS.

WNW-NW FLOW ALOFT TODAY. WITH WEAK 700 HPA SHORTWAVE AND OPENING
500 HPA CUTOFF LOW STAYING WELL TO THE SE...SO NO FORCING
EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...DRY FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER ON
TRACK FOR TODAY. TO GET THERE THOUGH...NEED FOR PATCHY FOG OUTSIDE
OF URBAN AREAS TO BURN OFF. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN BY AROUND 13Z.
UNTIL THEN...EXPECT THE FOG TO BE LOCALLY DENSE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER LONG ISLAND AND S CT - WHICH HAVE AN SPS
OUT THROUGH 12Z TO ADDRESS THE LOCALLY DENSE FOG THERE.

THE LATE SUMMER HEAT ALONG WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY CONTINUES WITH
THE HIGHEST TEMPS AROUND 90 AND THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND93 IN THE HIGHLY URBAN AREAS INCLUDING NYC.

SEA BREEZES OF 10-15 KT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 18Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THRU THU MORNING...WARM AND DRY WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG.

THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT...A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOLLOWING
THE LAST 90 DEG DAY IN THIS STRETCH. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL ALLOW A CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO
BUILD SOUTH PUSHING A MORE SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION. BASED ON MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM FEATURES...POPS WERE
INCREASED TO 30-40 PCT FOR SCT TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT.

INCREASING NE AND E WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
USHERING IN A MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS WITH FORECAST TEMPS AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE THEN GETS ABSORBED INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE REGION THEN REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH
DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...
FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE NYC METRO SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR-AROUND 90
DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 90 DEGREES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR AROUND 90 IN URBAN
AREAS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY LINGERING MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN BR/STRATUS AT
KHPN/KISP/KGON WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12-13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR.
FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT OUTLYING TERMINALS ONCE
AGAIN.

S WINDS INCREASE TO 5-10 KT LATER THIS MORNING...AND THEN WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VRB THIS EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON
WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5-6
FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS
OF LESS THAN KT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE 10 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1/4 INCH
IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...GC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020754
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
354 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE
AND MERGES WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
UNTIL AROUND 8 AM OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS. A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG MAY BRIEFLY RESTRICT VSBY TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS.

AS AN UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW OVER OH MVS SE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY 6 PM...SCT CONVECTION IS FCST TO REDEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM...STAYING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL REGION.

THE LATE SUMMER HEAT ALONG WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY CONTS WITH THE
HIGHEST TEMPS ARND 90 AND THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARND 93 IN
THE HIGHLY URBAN AREAS INCLUDING NYC.

SEA BREEZES OF 10-15 KT ARE FCST TO DEVELOP BY 18Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THRU THU MORNING...WARM AND DRY WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG.

THU AFTN AND THU NIGHT...A CHANGE IN THE FCST FOLLOWING THE LAST
90 DEG DAY FCST IN THIS STRETCH. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE RIDGING DOWN
THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL ALLOW A CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYS TO BUILD
SOUTH PUSHING A MORE SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. BASED ON MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM FEATURES...POPS WERE
INCREASED TO 30-40 PCT FOR SCT TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT.

INCREASING NE AND E WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
USHERING IN A MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS WITH FCST TEMPS AT LEAST 10
DEGS COOLER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE THEN GETS ABSORBED INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE REGION THEN REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH
DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...

FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE NYC METRO SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR-AROUND 90
DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 90 DEGREES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR AROUND 90 IN URBAN
AREAS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BRIEF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDS IN BR/STRATUS AT TERMINALS AWAY FROM
KNYC THROUGH AROUND 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR.

LGT/VRB WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND THEN S WINDS INCREASE TO
5-10 KT DURING THE DAY.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR VSBY IN BR AWAY FROM
KNYC TERMINALS.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON
WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5-6
FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS
OF LESS THAN KT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE 10 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1/4 INCH
IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020754
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
354 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE
AND MERGES WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
UNTIL AROUND 8 AM OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS. A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG MAY BRIEFLY RESTRICT VSBY TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS.

AS AN UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW OVER OH MVS SE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY 6 PM...SCT CONVECTION IS FCST TO REDEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM...STAYING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL REGION.

THE LATE SUMMER HEAT ALONG WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY CONTS WITH THE
HIGHEST TEMPS ARND 90 AND THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARND 93 IN
THE HIGHLY URBAN AREAS INCLUDING NYC.

SEA BREEZES OF 10-15 KT ARE FCST TO DEVELOP BY 18Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THRU THU MORNING...WARM AND DRY WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG.

THU AFTN AND THU NIGHT...A CHANGE IN THE FCST FOLLOWING THE LAST
90 DEG DAY FCST IN THIS STRETCH. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE RIDGING DOWN
THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL ALLOW A CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYS TO BUILD
SOUTH PUSHING A MORE SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. BASED ON MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM FEATURES...POPS WERE
INCREASED TO 30-40 PCT FOR SCT TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT.

INCREASING NE AND E WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
USHERING IN A MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS WITH FCST TEMPS AT LEAST 10
DEGS COOLER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE THEN GETS ABSORBED INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE REGION THEN REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH
DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...

FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE NYC METRO SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR-AROUND 90
DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 90 DEGREES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR AROUND 90 IN URBAN
AREAS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BRIEF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDS IN BR/STRATUS AT TERMINALS AWAY FROM
KNYC THROUGH AROUND 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR.

LGT/VRB WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND THEN S WINDS INCREASE TO
5-10 KT DURING THE DAY.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR VSBY IN BR AWAY FROM
KNYC TERMINALS.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON
WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5-6
FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS
OF LESS THAN KT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE 10 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1/4 INCH
IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 020754
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
354 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE
AND MERGES WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
UNTIL AROUND 8 AM OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS. A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG MAY BRIEFLY RESTRICT VSBY TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS.

AS AN UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW OVER OH MVS SE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY 6 PM...SCT CONVECTION IS FCST TO REDEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM...STAYING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL REGION.

THE LATE SUMMER HEAT ALONG WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY CONTS WITH THE
HIGHEST TEMPS ARND 90 AND THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARND 93 IN
THE HIGHLY URBAN AREAS INCLUDING NYC.

SEA BREEZES OF 10-15 KT ARE FCST TO DEVELOP BY 18Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THRU THU MORNING...WARM AND DRY WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG.

THU AFTN AND THU NIGHT...A CHANGE IN THE FCST FOLLOWING THE LAST
90 DEG DAY FCST IN THIS STRETCH. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE RIDGING DOWN
THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL ALLOW A CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYS TO BUILD
SOUTH PUSHING A MORE SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. BASED ON MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM FEATURES...POPS WERE
INCREASED TO 30-40 PCT FOR SCT TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT.

INCREASING NE AND E WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
USHERING IN A MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS WITH FCST TEMPS AT LEAST 10
DEGS COOLER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE THEN GETS ABSORBED INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE REGION THEN REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH
DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...

FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE NYC METRO SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR-AROUND 90
DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 90 DEGREES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR AROUND 90 IN URBAN
AREAS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BRIEF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDS IN BR/STRATUS AT TERMINALS AWAY FROM
KNYC THROUGH AROUND 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR.

LGT/VRB WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND THEN S WINDS INCREASE TO
5-10 KT DURING THE DAY.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR VSBY IN BR AWAY FROM
KNYC TERMINALS.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON
WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5-6
FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS
OF LESS THAN KT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE 10 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1/4 INCH
IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 020754
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
354 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE
AND MERGES WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
UNTIL AROUND 8 AM OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS. A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG MAY BRIEFLY RESTRICT VSBY TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS.

AS AN UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW OVER OH MVS SE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY 6 PM...SCT CONVECTION IS FCST TO REDEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM...STAYING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL REGION.

THE LATE SUMMER HEAT ALONG WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY CONTS WITH THE
HIGHEST TEMPS ARND 90 AND THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARND 93 IN
THE HIGHLY URBAN AREAS INCLUDING NYC.

SEA BREEZES OF 10-15 KT ARE FCST TO DEVELOP BY 18Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THRU THU MORNING...WARM AND DRY WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG.

THU AFTN AND THU NIGHT...A CHANGE IN THE FCST FOLLOWING THE LAST
90 DEG DAY FCST IN THIS STRETCH. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE RIDGING DOWN
THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL ALLOW A CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYS TO BUILD
SOUTH PUSHING A MORE SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. BASED ON MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM FEATURES...POPS WERE
INCREASED TO 30-40 PCT FOR SCT TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT.

INCREASING NE AND E WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
USHERING IN A MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS WITH FCST TEMPS AT LEAST 10
DEGS COOLER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE THEN GETS ABSORBED INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE REGION THEN REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH
DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...

FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE NYC METRO SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR-AROUND 90
DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 90 DEGREES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR AROUND 90 IN URBAN
AREAS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BRIEF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDS IN BR/STRATUS AT TERMINALS AWAY FROM
KNYC THROUGH AROUND 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR.

LGT/VRB WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND THEN S WINDS INCREASE TO
5-10 KT DURING THE DAY.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR VSBY IN BR AWAY FROM
KNYC TERMINALS.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON
WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5-6
FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS
OF LESS THAN KT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE 10 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1/4 INCH
IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020531
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
131 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS TONIGHT AND IS REPLACED BY A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST ACROSS NEW
JERSEY THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY
RADIATIONAL GROUND FOG EARLIER THAN PREDICTED...THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST WAS UPDATED. A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG MAY BRIEFLY
RESTRICT VSBY TO 1/4 MILE.

OTHERWISE...AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER
THE REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN LATE AT NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD FARTHER TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO THE EAST TO BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THE AREA REMAINS DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NO TRIGGERS OR UPPER SUPPORT PRESENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DOES
APPROACH IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THU/THU NIGHT...WHILE A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW DIGS
THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE GRADUALLY
FLATTENING EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ON THU. A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THU/THU EVE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIGS SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF
ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI
VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI INTO SAT. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND LATE SUMMER HEAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BRIEF MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR VSBY IN BR AT TERMINALS AWAY FROM
KNYC THROUGH AROUND 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR.

LGT/VRB WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND THEN S WINDS INCREASE TO
5-10 KT DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR VSBY IN BR AWAY FROM
KNYC TERMINALS.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON
WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAINING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS APPEAR TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...GC/MET
SHORT TERM...GC/MET
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GC/MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...GC/MET/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020531
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
131 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS TONIGHT AND IS REPLACED BY A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST ACROSS NEW
JERSEY THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY
RADIATIONAL GROUND FOG EARLIER THAN PREDICTED...THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST WAS UPDATED. A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG MAY BRIEFLY
RESTRICT VSBY TO 1/4 MILE.

OTHERWISE...AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER
THE REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN LATE AT NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD FARTHER TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO THE EAST TO BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THE AREA REMAINS DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NO TRIGGERS OR UPPER SUPPORT PRESENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DOES
APPROACH IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THU/THU NIGHT...WHILE A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW DIGS
THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE GRADUALLY
FLATTENING EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ON THU. A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THU/THU EVE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIGS SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF
ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI
VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI INTO SAT. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND LATE SUMMER HEAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BRIEF MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR VSBY IN BR AT TERMINALS AWAY FROM
KNYC THROUGH AROUND 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR.

LGT/VRB WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND THEN S WINDS INCREASE TO
5-10 KT DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR VSBY IN BR AWAY FROM
KNYC TERMINALS.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON
WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAINING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS APPEAR TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...GC/MET
SHORT TERM...GC/MET
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GC/MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...GC/MET/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 020531
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
131 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS TONIGHT AND IS REPLACED BY A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST ACROSS NEW
JERSEY THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY
RADIATIONAL GROUND FOG EARLIER THAN PREDICTED...THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST WAS UPDATED. A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG MAY BRIEFLY
RESTRICT VSBY TO 1/4 MILE.

OTHERWISE...AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER
THE REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN LATE AT NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD FARTHER TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO THE EAST TO BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THE AREA REMAINS DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NO TRIGGERS OR UPPER SUPPORT PRESENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DOES
APPROACH IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THU/THU NIGHT...WHILE A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW DIGS
THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE GRADUALLY
FLATTENING EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ON THU. A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THU/THU EVE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIGS SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF
ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI
VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI INTO SAT. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND LATE SUMMER HEAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BRIEF MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR VSBY IN BR AT TERMINALS AWAY FROM
KNYC THROUGH AROUND 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR.

LGT/VRB WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND THEN S WINDS INCREASE TO
5-10 KT DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR VSBY IN BR AWAY FROM
KNYC TERMINALS.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON
WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAINING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS APPEAR TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...GC/MET
SHORT TERM...GC/MET
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GC/MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...GC/MET/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 020531
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
131 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS TONIGHT AND IS REPLACED BY A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST ACROSS NEW
JERSEY THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY
RADIATIONAL GROUND FOG EARLIER THAN PREDICTED...THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST WAS UPDATED. A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG MAY BRIEFLY
RESTRICT VSBY TO 1/4 MILE.

OTHERWISE...AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER
THE REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN LATE AT NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD FARTHER TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO THE EAST TO BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THE AREA REMAINS DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NO TRIGGERS OR UPPER SUPPORT PRESENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DOES
APPROACH IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THU/THU NIGHT...WHILE A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW DIGS
THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE GRADUALLY
FLATTENING EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ON THU. A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THU/THU EVE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIGS SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF
ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI
VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI INTO SAT. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND LATE SUMMER HEAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BRIEF MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR VSBY IN BR AT TERMINALS AWAY FROM
KNYC THROUGH AROUND 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR.

LGT/VRB WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND THEN S WINDS INCREASE TO
5-10 KT DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR VSBY IN BR AWAY FROM
KNYC TERMINALS.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON
WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAINING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS APPEAR TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...GC/MET
SHORT TERM...GC/MET
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GC/MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...GC/MET/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020251
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1051 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY
T/TD TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN JUST TO THE
WEST...THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THIS EVENING
INTO LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA MOVES EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN
LATE AT NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOME PATCHY FOG IN OUTLYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD FARTHER TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO THE EAST TO BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THE AREA REMAINS DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NO TRIGGERS OR UPPER SUPPORT PRESENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DOES
APPROACH IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THU/THU NIGHT...WHILE A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW DIGS
THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE GRADUALLY
FLATTENING EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ON THU. A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THU/THU EVE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIGS SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF
ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI
VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI INTO SAT. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND LATE SUMMER HEAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KT. THE WINDS
COULD OCCASIONALLY REACH A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS IS FORECAST 08Z-12Z WEDNESDAY
AT KSWF/KHPN/KGON IN FOG. THIS COULD OCCUR 1-2 HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. THE MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR KTEB AND KBDR AS
WELL.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON
WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAINING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS APPEAR TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...MET/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020251
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1051 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY
T/TD TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN JUST TO THE
WEST...THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THIS EVENING
INTO LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA MOVES EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN
LATE AT NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOME PATCHY FOG IN OUTLYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD FARTHER TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO THE EAST TO BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THE AREA REMAINS DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NO TRIGGERS OR UPPER SUPPORT PRESENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DOES
APPROACH IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THU/THU NIGHT...WHILE A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW DIGS
THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE GRADUALLY
FLATTENING EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ON THU. A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THU/THU EVE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIGS SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF
ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI
VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI INTO SAT. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND LATE SUMMER HEAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KT. THE WINDS
COULD OCCASIONALLY REACH A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS IS FORECAST 08Z-12Z WEDNESDAY
AT KSWF/KHPN/KGON IN FOG. THIS COULD OCCUR 1-2 HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. THE MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR KTEB AND KBDR AS
WELL.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON
WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAINING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS APPEAR TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...MET/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020251
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1051 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY
T/TD TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN JUST TO THE
WEST...THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THIS EVENING
INTO LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA MOVES EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN
LATE AT NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOME PATCHY FOG IN OUTLYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD FARTHER TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO THE EAST TO BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THE AREA REMAINS DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NO TRIGGERS OR UPPER SUPPORT PRESENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DOES
APPROACH IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THU/THU NIGHT...WHILE A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW DIGS
THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE GRADUALLY
FLATTENING EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ON THU. A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THU/THU EVE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIGS SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF
ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI
VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI INTO SAT. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND LATE SUMMER HEAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KT. THE WINDS
COULD OCCASIONALLY REACH A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS IS FORECAST 08Z-12Z WEDNESDAY
AT KSWF/KHPN/KGON IN FOG. THIS COULD OCCUR 1-2 HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. THE MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR KTEB AND KBDR AS
WELL.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON
WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAINING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS APPEAR TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...MET/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 020123
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
923 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY
T/TD TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN JUST TO THE
WEST...THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THIS EVENING
INTO LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA MOVES EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN
LATE AT NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOME PATCHY FOG IN OUTLYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD FARTHER TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO THE EAST TO BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THE AREA REMAINS DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NO TRIGGERS OR UPPER SUPPORT PRESENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DOES
APPROACH IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THU/THU NIGHT...WHILE A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW DIGS
THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE GRADUALLY
FLATTENING EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ON THU. A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THU/THU EVE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIGS SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF
ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI
VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI INTO SAT. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND LATE SUMMER HEAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. CITY TERMINALS STILL HAVE AROUND 8-10 KT SOUTH WIND
WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KT.

A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IS POSSIBLE 08Z-12Z WEDNESDAY AT
KSWF/KHPN/KGON IN FOG.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR VSBYS IN FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR 1-2 HRS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN INDICATED IN FORECAST. WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS
HIGHER THAN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON
WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAINING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS APPEAR TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 020123
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
923 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY
T/TD TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN JUST TO THE
WEST...THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THIS EVENING
INTO LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA MOVES EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN
LATE AT NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOME PATCHY FOG IN OUTLYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD FARTHER TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO THE EAST TO BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THE AREA REMAINS DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NO TRIGGERS OR UPPER SUPPORT PRESENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DOES
APPROACH IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THU/THU NIGHT...WHILE A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW DIGS
THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE GRADUALLY
FLATTENING EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ON THU. A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THU/THU EVE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIGS SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF
ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI
VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI INTO SAT. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND LATE SUMMER HEAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. CITY TERMINALS STILL HAVE AROUND 8-10 KT SOUTH WIND
WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KT.

A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IS POSSIBLE 08Z-12Z WEDNESDAY AT
KSWF/KHPN/KGON IN FOG.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR VSBYS IN FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR 1-2 HRS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN INDICATED IN FORECAST. WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS
HIGHER THAN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON
WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAINING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS APPEAR TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020123
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
923 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY
T/TD TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN JUST TO THE
WEST...THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THIS EVENING
INTO LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA MOVES EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN
LATE AT NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOME PATCHY FOG IN OUTLYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD FARTHER TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO THE EAST TO BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THE AREA REMAINS DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NO TRIGGERS OR UPPER SUPPORT PRESENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DOES
APPROACH IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THU/THU NIGHT...WHILE A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW DIGS
THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE GRADUALLY
FLATTENING EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ON THU. A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THU/THU EVE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIGS SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF
ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI
VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI INTO SAT. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND LATE SUMMER HEAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. CITY TERMINALS STILL HAVE AROUND 8-10 KT SOUTH WIND
WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KT.

A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IS POSSIBLE 08Z-12Z WEDNESDAY AT
KSWF/KHPN/KGON IN FOG.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR VSBYS IN FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR 1-2 HRS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN INDICATED IN FORECAST. WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS
HIGHER THAN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON
WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAINING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS APPEAR TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 012345
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
745 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY
T/TD AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN JUST TO THE
WEST...THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THIS EVENING
INTO LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA MOVES EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN
LATE AT NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOME PATCHY FOG IN OUTLYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD FARTHER TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO THE EAST TO BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THE AREA REMAINS DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NO TRIGGERS OR UPPER SUPPORT PRESENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DOES
APPROACH IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THU/THU NIGHT...WHILE A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW DIGS
THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE GRADUALLY
FLATTENING EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ON THU. A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THU/THU EVE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIGS SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF
ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI
VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI INTO SAT. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND LATE SUMMER HEAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. CITY TERMINALS STILL HAVE AROUND 8-10 KT SOUTH WIND
WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KT.

A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IS POSSIBLE 08Z-12Z WEDNESDAY AT
KSWF/KHPN/KGON IN FOG.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR VSBYS IN FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR 1-2 HRS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN INDICATED IN FORECAST. WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS
HIGHER THAN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON
WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAINING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS APPEAR TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011946
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
346 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN JUST TO THE
WEST...THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THIS EVENING
INTO LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN LATE AT
NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND SOME
PATCHY FOG IN OUTLYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD FARTHER TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO THE EAST TO BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THE AREA REMAINS DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NO TRIGGERS OR UPPER SUPPORT PRESENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DOES
APPROACH IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THU/THU NIGHT...WHILE A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW DIGS
THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE GRADUALLY
FLATTENING EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ON THU. A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THU/THU EVE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIGS SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF
ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI
VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI INTO SAT. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND LATE SUMMER HEAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

LIGHT N/NE WINDS EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z WEDNESDAY AT
KSWF/KHPN/KGON.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAINING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS APPEAR TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...MET/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011946
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
346 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN JUST TO THE
WEST...THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THIS EVENING
INTO LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN LATE AT
NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND SOME
PATCHY FOG IN OUTLYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD FARTHER TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO THE EAST TO BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THE AREA REMAINS DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NO TRIGGERS OR UPPER SUPPORT PRESENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DOES
APPROACH IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THU/THU NIGHT...WHILE A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW DIGS
THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE GRADUALLY
FLATTENING EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ON THU. A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THU/THU EVE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIGS SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF
ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI
VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI INTO SAT. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND LATE SUMMER HEAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

LIGHT N/NE WINDS EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z WEDNESDAY AT
KSWF/KHPN/KGON.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAINING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS APPEAR TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...MET/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 011946
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
346 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN JUST TO THE
WEST...THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THIS EVENING
INTO LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN LATE AT
NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND SOME
PATCHY FOG IN OUTLYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD FARTHER TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO THE EAST TO BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THE AREA REMAINS DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NO TRIGGERS OR UPPER SUPPORT PRESENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DOES
APPROACH IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THU/THU NIGHT...WHILE A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW DIGS
THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE GRADUALLY
FLATTENING EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ON THU. A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THU/THU EVE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIGS SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF
ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI
VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI INTO SAT. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND LATE SUMMER HEAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

LIGHT N/NE WINDS EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z WEDNESDAY AT
KSWF/KHPN/KGON.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAINING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS APPEAR TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...MET/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 011747
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
147 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION UNDER
WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND FULL SUN INITIALLY. TEMPERATURES MAINLY ON
TRACK...WITH SOME LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
DEW POINTS WERE LOWERING WITH A COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR MOVING IN
AND MIXING. SEA BREEZES WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS AND WILL
HALT TEMPERATURE RISES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS TONIGHT
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
MIXED IN OVER URBAN AREAS. LOWS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURE IN URBAN AREAS.

THE FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY GOES ZONAL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE
S...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WNW-NW ALOFT BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO FAR TO THE SW/S TO CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION...SO WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE CMC-REGIONAL MODEL DOES
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY W OF NYC...BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...MIXING
DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THOSE TODAY. HEAT
INDICES PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S IN URBAN AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREPARE FOR INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE DANGER WEATHER THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY.

WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN END AS
FORECAST MODELS CONT TO SHOW A DIGGING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A BUILDING HIGH
PRES SYSTEM OVER SE CANADA TO PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCT-SCT TSTMS. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE LONG TERM.

FRI-SUNDAY...A REFRESHING MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ON EAST WINDS
REPLACES THE PERSISTENT MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

WITH YET ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRES MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ALONG WITH FIRE DANGER WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

LIGHT N/NE WINDS EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE SEA BREEZES HAVE
DEVELOPED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z WEDNESDAY AT
KSWF/KHPN/KGON.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS FORECAST ON TRACK.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY KEEP
WINDS AT UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS AND ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS 1 FT
OR LESS AS A RESULT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 KT AND
SEAS OF 5 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THEN DRY WEATHER AGAIN FROM LATER FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GC/MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 011638
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1238 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION UNDER
WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND FULL SUN INITIALLY. TEMPERATURES MAINLY ON
TRACK...WITH SOME LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
DEW POINTS WERE LOWERING WITH A COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR MOVING IN
AND MIXING. SEA BREEZES WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS AND WILL
HALT TEMPERATURE RISES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS TONIGHT
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
MIXED IN OVER URBAN AREAS. LOWS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURE IN URBAN AREAS.

THE FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY GOES ZONAL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE
S...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WNW-NW ALOFT BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO FAR TO THE SW/S TO CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION...SO WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE CMC-REGIONAL MODEL DOES
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY W OF NYC...BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...MIXING
DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THOSE TODAY. HEAT
INDICES PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S IN URBAN AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREPARE FOR INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE DANGER WEATHER THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY.

WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN END AS
FORECAST MODELS CONT TO SHOW A DIGGING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A BUILDING HIGH
PRES SYSTEM OVER SE CANADA TO PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCT-SCT TSTMS. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE LONG TERM.

FRI-SUNDAY...A REFRESHING MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ON EAST WINDS
REPLACES THE PERSISTENT MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

WITH YET ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRES MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ALONG WITH FIRE DANGER WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

LIGHT N/NE WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS 10 KT OR
LESS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB THIS EVENING.

A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z WEDNESDAY AT
KSWF/KHPN/KGON.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS RED...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY LESS THAN 4SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF AFTERNOON WIND SHIFT...THAT COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS FORECAST ON TRACK.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY KEEP
WINDS AT UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS AND ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS 1 FT
OR LESS AS A RESULT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 KT AND
SEAS OF 5 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THEN DRY WEATHER AGAIN FROM LATER FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GC/MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011638
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1238 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION UNDER
WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND FULL SUN INITIALLY. TEMPERATURES MAINLY ON
TRACK...WITH SOME LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
DEW POINTS WERE LOWERING WITH A COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR MOVING IN
AND MIXING. SEA BREEZES WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS AND WILL
HALT TEMPERATURE RISES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS TONIGHT
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
MIXED IN OVER URBAN AREAS. LOWS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURE IN URBAN AREAS.

THE FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY GOES ZONAL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE
S...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WNW-NW ALOFT BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO FAR TO THE SW/S TO CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION...SO WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE CMC-REGIONAL MODEL DOES
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY W OF NYC...BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...MIXING
DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THOSE TODAY. HEAT
INDICES PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S IN URBAN AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREPARE FOR INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE DANGER WEATHER THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY.

WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN END AS
FORECAST MODELS CONT TO SHOW A DIGGING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A BUILDING HIGH
PRES SYSTEM OVER SE CANADA TO PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCT-SCT TSTMS. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE LONG TERM.

FRI-SUNDAY...A REFRESHING MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ON EAST WINDS
REPLACES THE PERSISTENT MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

WITH YET ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRES MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ALONG WITH FIRE DANGER WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

LIGHT N/NE WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS 10 KT OR
LESS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB THIS EVENING.

A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z WEDNESDAY AT
KSWF/KHPN/KGON.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS RED...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY LESS THAN 4SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF AFTERNOON WIND SHIFT...THAT COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS FORECAST ON TRACK.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY KEEP
WINDS AT UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS AND ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS 1 FT
OR LESS AS A RESULT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 KT AND
SEAS OF 5 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THEN DRY WEATHER AGAIN FROM LATER FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GC/MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 011638
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1238 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION UNDER
WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND FULL SUN INITIALLY. TEMPERATURES MAINLY ON
TRACK...WITH SOME LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
DEW POINTS WERE LOWERING WITH A COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR MOVING IN
AND MIXING. SEA BREEZES WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS AND WILL
HALT TEMPERATURE RISES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS TONIGHT
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
MIXED IN OVER URBAN AREAS. LOWS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURE IN URBAN AREAS.

THE FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY GOES ZONAL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE
S...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WNW-NW ALOFT BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO FAR TO THE SW/S TO CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION...SO WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE CMC-REGIONAL MODEL DOES
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY W OF NYC...BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...MIXING
DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THOSE TODAY. HEAT
INDICES PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S IN URBAN AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREPARE FOR INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE DANGER WEATHER THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY.

WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN END AS
FORECAST MODELS CONT TO SHOW A DIGGING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A BUILDING HIGH
PRES SYSTEM OVER SE CANADA TO PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCT-SCT TSTMS. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE LONG TERM.

FRI-SUNDAY...A REFRESHING MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ON EAST WINDS
REPLACES THE PERSISTENT MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

WITH YET ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRES MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ALONG WITH FIRE DANGER WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

LIGHT N/NE WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS 10 KT OR
LESS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB THIS EVENING.

A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z WEDNESDAY AT
KSWF/KHPN/KGON.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS RED...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY LESS THAN 4SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF AFTERNOON WIND SHIFT...THAT COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS FORECAST ON TRACK.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY KEEP
WINDS AT UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS AND ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS 1 FT
OR LESS AS A RESULT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 KT AND
SEAS OF 5 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THEN DRY WEATHER AGAIN FROM LATER FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GC/MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 011638
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1238 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION UNDER
WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND FULL SUN INITIALLY. TEMPERATURES MAINLY ON
TRACK...WITH SOME LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
DEW POINTS WERE LOWERING WITH A COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR MOVING IN
AND MIXING. SEA BREEZES WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS AND WILL
HALT TEMPERATURE RISES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS TONIGHT
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
MIXED IN OVER URBAN AREAS. LOWS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURE IN URBAN AREAS.

THE FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY GOES ZONAL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE
S...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WNW-NW ALOFT BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO FAR TO THE SW/S TO CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION...SO WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE CMC-REGIONAL MODEL DOES
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY W OF NYC...BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...MIXING
DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THOSE TODAY. HEAT
INDICES PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S IN URBAN AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREPARE FOR INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE DANGER WEATHER THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY.

WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN END AS
FORECAST MODELS CONT TO SHOW A DIGGING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A BUILDING HIGH
PRES SYSTEM OVER SE CANADA TO PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCT-SCT TSTMS. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE LONG TERM.

FRI-SUNDAY...A REFRESHING MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ON EAST WINDS
REPLACES THE PERSISTENT MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

WITH YET ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRES MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ALONG WITH FIRE DANGER WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

LIGHT N/NE WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS 10 KT OR
LESS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB THIS EVENING.

A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z WEDNESDAY AT
KSWF/KHPN/KGON.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS RED...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY LESS THAN 4SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF AFTERNOON WIND SHIFT...THAT COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS FORECAST ON TRACK.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY KEEP
WINDS AT UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS AND ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS 1 FT
OR LESS AS A RESULT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 KT AND
SEAS OF 5 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THEN DRY WEATHER AGAIN FROM LATER FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GC/MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011434
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1034 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
THEN APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY...THEN MOVES THROUGH
THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG HAS DISSIPATED AND CONDITIONS WERE CLEAR AS SEEN FROM
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WAS SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. THE BOUNDARY RETREAT NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT WITH THE WIND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH...ENHANCED BY DEVELOPING SEA BREEZES. UPDATED WIND WITH THE
HRRR WHICH SEEMED TO HANDLE THE WIND SHIFT WELL.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE
RIDGE...KEEPING NEARLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH FEW IF ANY CUMULUS
BUILDING.

HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS TONIGHT
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
MIXED IN OVER URBAN AREAS. LOWS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURE IN URBAN AREAS.

THE FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY GOES ZONAL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE
S...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WNW-NW ALOFT BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO FAR TO THE SW/S TO CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION...SO WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE CMC-REGIONAL MODEL DOES
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY W OF NYC...BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...MIXING
DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THOSE TODAY. HEAT
INDICES PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S IN URBAN AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREPARE FOR INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE DANGER WEATHER THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY.

WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN END AS
FORECAST MODELS CONT TO SHOW A DIGGING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A BUILDING HIGH
PRES SYSTEM OVER SE CANADA TO PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCT-SCT TSTMS. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE LONG TERM.

FRI-SUNDAY...A REFRESHING MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ON EAST WINDS
REPLACES THE PERSISTENT MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

WITH YET ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRES MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ALONG WITH FIRE DANGER WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

LIGHT N/NE WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS 10 KT OR
LESS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB THIS EVENING.

A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z WEDNESDAY AT
KSWF/KHPN/KGON.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS RED...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY LESS THAN 4SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF AFTERNOON WIND SHIFT...THAT COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS FORECAST ON TRACK.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY KEEP
WINDS AT UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS AND ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS 1 FT
OR LESS AS A RESULT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 KT AND
SEAS OF 5 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THEN DRY WEATHER AGAIN FROM LATER FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GC/MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011434
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1034 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
THEN APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY...THEN MOVES THROUGH
THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG HAS DISSIPATED AND CONDITIONS WERE CLEAR AS SEEN FROM
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WAS SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. THE BOUNDARY RETREAT NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT WITH THE WIND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH...ENHANCED BY DEVELOPING SEA BREEZES. UPDATED WIND WITH THE
HRRR WHICH SEEMED TO HANDLE THE WIND SHIFT WELL.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE
RIDGE...KEEPING NEARLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH FEW IF ANY CUMULUS
BUILDING.

HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS TONIGHT
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
MIXED IN OVER URBAN AREAS. LOWS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURE IN URBAN AREAS.

THE FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY GOES ZONAL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE
S...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WNW-NW ALOFT BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO FAR TO THE SW/S TO CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION...SO WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE CMC-REGIONAL MODEL DOES
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY W OF NYC...BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...MIXING
DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THOSE TODAY. HEAT
INDICES PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S IN URBAN AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREPARE FOR INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE DANGER WEATHER THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY.

WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN END AS
FORECAST MODELS CONT TO SHOW A DIGGING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A BUILDING HIGH
PRES SYSTEM OVER SE CANADA TO PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCT-SCT TSTMS. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE LONG TERM.

FRI-SUNDAY...A REFRESHING MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ON EAST WINDS
REPLACES THE PERSISTENT MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

WITH YET ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRES MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ALONG WITH FIRE DANGER WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

LIGHT N/NE WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS 10 KT OR
LESS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB THIS EVENING.

A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z WEDNESDAY AT
KSWF/KHPN/KGON.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS RED...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY LESS THAN 4SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF AFTERNOON WIND SHIFT...THAT COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS FORECAST ON TRACK.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY KEEP
WINDS AT UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS AND ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS 1 FT
OR LESS AS A RESULT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 KT AND
SEAS OF 5 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THEN DRY WEATHER AGAIN FROM LATER FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GC/MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 011114
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
714 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES JUST TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...
THEN RETREATS NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN CROSSES THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...THEN MOVES THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG UNTIL 13Z/9 AM...MAINLY WEST AND
NORTH OF NYC INCLUDING INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT...GENERALLY
RESTRICTING VSBYS 3-5 MILES.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER AT A MINIMUM.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875-825 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE OF
MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS TONIGHT
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
MIXED IN OVER URBAN AREAS. LOWS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURE IN URBAN AREAS.

THE FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY GOES ZONAL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE
S...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WNW-NW ALOFT BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO FAR TO THE SW/S TO CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION...SO WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE CMC-REGIONAL MODEL DOES
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY W OF NYC...BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...MIXING
DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THOSE TODAY. HEAT
INDICES PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S IN URBAN AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREPARE FOR INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE DANGER WEATHER THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY.

WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN END AS
FORECAST MODELS CONT TO SHOW A DIGGING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A BUILDING HIGH
PRES SYSTEM OVER SE CANADA TO PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCT-SCT TSTMS. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE LONG TERM.

FRI-SUNDAY...A REFRESHING MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ON EAST WINDS
REPLACES THE PERSISTENT MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

WITH YET ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRES MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ALONG WITH FIRE DANGER WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
N/NE WINDS INITIALLY...AND THEN SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AT COASTAL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VRB THIS EVENING.

VFR.

A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z WEDNESDAY AT
KSWF/KHPN/KGON.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF AFTERNOON WIND SHIFT...THAT COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY KEEP WINDS
AT UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS AND ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS 1 FT OR
LESS AS A RESULT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 KT AND
SEAS OF 5 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...GC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011114
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
714 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES JUST TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...
THEN RETREATS NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN CROSSES THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...THEN MOVES THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG UNTIL 13Z/9 AM...MAINLY WEST AND
NORTH OF NYC INCLUDING INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT...GENERALLY
RESTRICTING VSBYS 3-5 MILES.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER AT A MINIMUM.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875-825 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE OF
MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS TONIGHT
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
MIXED IN OVER URBAN AREAS. LOWS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURE IN URBAN AREAS.

THE FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY GOES ZONAL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE
S...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WNW-NW ALOFT BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO FAR TO THE SW/S TO CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION...SO WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE CMC-REGIONAL MODEL DOES
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY W OF NYC...BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...MIXING
DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THOSE TODAY. HEAT
INDICES PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S IN URBAN AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREPARE FOR INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE DANGER WEATHER THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY.

WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN END AS
FORECAST MODELS CONT TO SHOW A DIGGING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A BUILDING HIGH
PRES SYSTEM OVER SE CANADA TO PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCT-SCT TSTMS. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE LONG TERM.

FRI-SUNDAY...A REFRESHING MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ON EAST WINDS
REPLACES THE PERSISTENT MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

WITH YET ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRES MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ALONG WITH FIRE DANGER WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
N/NE WINDS INITIALLY...AND THEN SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AT COASTAL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VRB THIS EVENING.

VFR.

A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z WEDNESDAY AT
KSWF/KHPN/KGON.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF AFTERNOON WIND SHIFT...THAT COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY KEEP WINDS
AT UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS AND ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS 1 FT OR
LESS AS A RESULT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 KT AND
SEAS OF 5 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...GC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011114
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
714 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES JUST TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...
THEN RETREATS NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN CROSSES THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...THEN MOVES THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG UNTIL 13Z/9 AM...MAINLY WEST AND
NORTH OF NYC INCLUDING INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT...GENERALLY
RESTRICTING VSBYS 3-5 MILES.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER AT A MINIMUM.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875-825 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE OF
MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS TONIGHT
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
MIXED IN OVER URBAN AREAS. LOWS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURE IN URBAN AREAS.

THE FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY GOES ZONAL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE
S...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WNW-NW ALOFT BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO FAR TO THE SW/S TO CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION...SO WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE CMC-REGIONAL MODEL DOES
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY W OF NYC...BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...MIXING
DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THOSE TODAY. HEAT
INDICES PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S IN URBAN AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREPARE FOR INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE DANGER WEATHER THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY.

WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN END AS
FORECAST MODELS CONT TO SHOW A DIGGING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A BUILDING HIGH
PRES SYSTEM OVER SE CANADA TO PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCT-SCT TSTMS. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE LONG TERM.

FRI-SUNDAY...A REFRESHING MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ON EAST WINDS
REPLACES THE PERSISTENT MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

WITH YET ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRES MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ALONG WITH FIRE DANGER WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
N/NE WINDS INITIALLY...AND THEN SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AT COASTAL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VRB THIS EVENING.

VFR.

A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z WEDNESDAY AT
KSWF/KHPN/KGON.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF AFTERNOON WIND SHIFT...THAT COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY KEEP WINDS
AT UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS AND ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS 1 FT OR
LESS AS A RESULT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 KT AND
SEAS OF 5 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...GC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 011114
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
714 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES JUST TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...
THEN RETREATS NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN CROSSES THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...THEN MOVES THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG UNTIL 13Z/9 AM...MAINLY WEST AND
NORTH OF NYC INCLUDING INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT...GENERALLY
RESTRICTING VSBYS 3-5 MILES.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER AT A MINIMUM.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875-825 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE OF
MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS TONIGHT
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
MIXED IN OVER URBAN AREAS. LOWS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURE IN URBAN AREAS.

THE FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY GOES ZONAL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE
S...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WNW-NW ALOFT BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO FAR TO THE SW/S TO CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION...SO WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE CMC-REGIONAL MODEL DOES
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY W OF NYC...BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...MIXING
DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THOSE TODAY. HEAT
INDICES PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S IN URBAN AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREPARE FOR INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE DANGER WEATHER THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY.

WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN END AS
FORECAST MODELS CONT TO SHOW A DIGGING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A BUILDING HIGH
PRES SYSTEM OVER SE CANADA TO PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCT-SCT TSTMS. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE LONG TERM.

FRI-SUNDAY...A REFRESHING MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ON EAST WINDS
REPLACES THE PERSISTENT MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

WITH YET ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRES MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ALONG WITH FIRE DANGER WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
N/NE WINDS INITIALLY...AND THEN SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AT COASTAL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VRB THIS EVENING.

VFR.

A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z WEDNESDAY AT
KSWF/KHPN/KGON.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF AFTERNOON WIND SHIFT...THAT COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY KEEP WINDS
AT UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS AND ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS 1 FT OR
LESS AS A RESULT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 KT AND
SEAS OF 5 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...GC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 011040
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
640 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES JUST TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN
RETREATS NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY...THEN MOVES THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG UNTIL 13Z/9 AM...MAINLY WEST AND
NORTH OF NYC INCLUDING INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT...GENERALLY
RESTRICTING VSBYS 3-5 MILES.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER AT A MINIMUM.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875-825 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE OF
MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS TONIGHT
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
MIXED IN OVER URBAN AREAS. LOWS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURE IN URBAN AREAS.

THE FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY GOES ZONAL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE
S...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WNW-NW ALOFT BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO FAR TO THE SW/S TO CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION...SO WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE CMC-REGIONAL MODEL DOES
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY W OF NYC...BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...MIXING
DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THOSE TODAY. HEAT
INDICES PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S IN URBAN AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREPARE FOR INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE DANGER WEATHER THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY.

WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN END AS
FORECAST MODELS CONT TO SHOW A DIGGING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A BUILDING HIGH
PRES SYSTEM OVER SE CANADA TO PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCT-SCT TSTMS. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE LONG TERM.

FRI-SUNDAY...A REFRESHING MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ON EAST WINDS
REPLACES THE PERSISTENT MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

WITH YET ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRES MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ALONG WITH FIRE DANGER WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE N/NW AT LESS THAN 10 KT. AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB
THIS EVENING.

VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF AROUND DAYBREAK.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF AFTERNOON WIND SHIFT...THAT COULD BE OFF BY
+/- 1 HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY KEEP WINDS
AT UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS AND ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS 1 FT OR
LESS AS A RESULT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 KT AND
SEAS OF 5 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...GC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011040
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
640 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES JUST TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN
RETREATS NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY...THEN MOVES THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG UNTIL 13Z/9 AM...MAINLY WEST AND
NORTH OF NYC INCLUDING INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT...GENERALLY
RESTRICTING VSBYS 3-5 MILES.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER AT A MINIMUM.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875-825 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE OF
MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS TONIGHT
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
MIXED IN OVER URBAN AREAS. LOWS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURE IN URBAN AREAS.

THE FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY GOES ZONAL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE
S...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WNW-NW ALOFT BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO FAR TO THE SW/S TO CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION...SO WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE CMC-REGIONAL MODEL DOES
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY W OF NYC...BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...MIXING
DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THOSE TODAY. HEAT
INDICES PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S IN URBAN AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREPARE FOR INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE DANGER WEATHER THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY.

WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN END AS
FORECAST MODELS CONT TO SHOW A DIGGING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A BUILDING HIGH
PRES SYSTEM OVER SE CANADA TO PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCT-SCT TSTMS. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE LONG TERM.

FRI-SUNDAY...A REFRESHING MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ON EAST WINDS
REPLACES THE PERSISTENT MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

WITH YET ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRES MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ALONG WITH FIRE DANGER WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE N/NW AT LESS THAN 10 KT. AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB
THIS EVENING.

VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF AROUND DAYBREAK.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF AFTERNOON WIND SHIFT...THAT COULD BE OFF BY
+/- 1 HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY KEEP WINDS
AT UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS AND ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS 1 FT OR
LESS AS A RESULT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 KT AND
SEAS OF 5 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...GC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 010729 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
329 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES JUST TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN
RETREATS NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY...THEN MOVES THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER AT A MINIMUM.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875-825 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE OF
MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS TONIGHT
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
MIXED IN OVER URBAN AREAS. LOWS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURE IN URBAN AREAS.

THE FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY GOES ZONAL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE
S...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WNW-NW ALOFT BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO FAR TO THE SW/S TO CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION...SO WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE CMC-REGIONAL MODEL DOES
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY W OF NYC...BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...MIXING
DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THOSE TODAY. HEAT
INDICES PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S IN URBAN AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREPARE FOR INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE DANGER WEATHER THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY.

WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN END AS
FORECAST MODELS CONT TO SHOW A DIGGING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A BUILDING HIGH
PRES SYSTEM OVER SE CANADA TO PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCT-SCT TSTMS. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE LONG TERM.

FRI-SUNDAY...A REFRESHING MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ON EAST WINDS
REPLACES THE PERSISTENT MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

WITH YET ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRES MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ALONG WITH FIRE DANGER WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE N/NW AT LESS THAN 10 KT. AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB
THIS EVENING.

VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF AROUND DAYBREAK.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF AFTERNOON WIND SHIFT...THAT COULD BE OFF BY
+/- 1 HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY KEEP WINDS
AT UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS AND ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS 1 FT OR
LESS AS A RESULT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 KT AND
SEAS OF 5 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/GC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/GC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/GC





000
FXUS61 KOKX 010729
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
329 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES JUST TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN
RETREATS NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. A WEAK FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER AT A MINIMUM.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875-825 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE OF
MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS TONIGHT
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
MIXED IN OVER URBAN AREAS. LOWS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURE IN URBAN AREAS.

THE FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY GOES ZONAL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE
S...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WNW-NW ALOFT BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO FAR TO THE SW/S TO CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION...SO WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE CMC-REGIONAL MODEL DOES
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY W OF NYC...BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...MIXING
DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THOSE TODAY. HEAT
INDICES PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S IN URBAN AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREPARE FOR INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE DANGER WEATHER THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY.

WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN END AS
FORECAST MODELS CONT TO SHOW A DIGGING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A BUILDING HIGH
PRES SYSTEM OVER SE CANADA TO PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCT-SCT TSTMS. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE LONG TERM.

FRI-SUNDAY...A REFRESHING MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ON EAST WINDS
REPLACES THE PERSISTENT MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

WITH YET ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRES MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ALONG WITH FIRE DANGER WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE N/NW AT LESS THAN 10 KT. AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB
THIS EVENING.

VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF AROUND DAYBREAK.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF AFTERNOON WIND SHIFT...THAT COULD BE OFF BY
+/- 1 HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY KEEP WINDS
AT UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS AND ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS 1 FT OR
LESS AS A RESULT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 KT AND
SEAS OF 5 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/GC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/GC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/GC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010729
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
329 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES JUST TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN
RETREATS NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. A WEAK FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER AT A MINIMUM.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875-825 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE OF
MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS TONIGHT
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
MIXED IN OVER URBAN AREAS. LOWS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURE IN URBAN AREAS.

THE FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY GOES ZONAL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE
S...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WNW-NW ALOFT BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO FAR TO THE SW/S TO CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION...SO WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE CMC-REGIONAL MODEL DOES
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY W OF NYC...BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...MIXING
DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THOSE TODAY. HEAT
INDICES PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S IN URBAN AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREPARE FOR INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE DANGER WEATHER THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY.

WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN END AS
FORECAST MODELS CONT TO SHOW A DIGGING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A BUILDING HIGH
PRES SYSTEM OVER SE CANADA TO PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCT-SCT TSTMS. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE LONG TERM.

FRI-SUNDAY...A REFRESHING MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ON EAST WINDS
REPLACES THE PERSISTENT MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

WITH YET ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRES MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ALONG WITH FIRE DANGER WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE N/NW AT LESS THAN 10 KT. AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB
THIS EVENING.

VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF AROUND DAYBREAK.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF AFTERNOON WIND SHIFT...THAT COULD BE OFF BY
+/- 1 HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY KEEP WINDS
AT UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS AND ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS 1 FT OR
LESS AS A RESULT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 KT AND
SEAS OF 5 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/GC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/GC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/GC





000
FXUS61 KOKX 010729 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
329 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES JUST TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN
RETREATS NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY...THEN MOVES THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER AT A MINIMUM.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875-825 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE OF
MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS TONIGHT
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
MIXED IN OVER URBAN AREAS. LOWS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURE IN URBAN AREAS.

THE FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY GOES ZONAL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE
S...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WNW-NW ALOFT BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO FAR TO THE SW/S TO CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION...SO WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE CMC-REGIONAL MODEL DOES
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY W OF NYC...BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...MIXING
DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THOSE TODAY. HEAT
INDICES PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S IN URBAN AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREPARE FOR INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE DANGER WEATHER THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY.

WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN END AS
FORECAST MODELS CONT TO SHOW A DIGGING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A BUILDING HIGH
PRES SYSTEM OVER SE CANADA TO PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCT-SCT TSTMS. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE LONG TERM.

FRI-SUNDAY...A REFRESHING MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ON EAST WINDS
REPLACES THE PERSISTENT MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

WITH YET ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRES MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ALONG WITH FIRE DANGER WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE N/NW AT LESS THAN 10 KT. AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB
THIS EVENING.

VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF AROUND DAYBREAK.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF AFTERNOON WIND SHIFT...THAT COULD BE OFF BY
+/- 1 HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY KEEP WINDS
AT UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS AND ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS 1 FT OR
LESS AS A RESULT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 KT AND
SEAS OF 5 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/GC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/GC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/GC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010729 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
329 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES JUST TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN
RETREATS NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY...THEN MOVES THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER AT A MINIMUM.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875-825 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE OF
MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS TONIGHT
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
MIXED IN OVER URBAN AREAS. LOWS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURE IN URBAN AREAS.

THE FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY GOES ZONAL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE
S...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WNW-NW ALOFT BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO FAR TO THE SW/S TO CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION...SO WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE CMC-REGIONAL MODEL DOES
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY W OF NYC...BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...MIXING
DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THOSE TODAY. HEAT
INDICES PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S IN URBAN AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREPARE FOR INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE DANGER WEATHER THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY.

WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN END AS
FORECAST MODELS CONT TO SHOW A DIGGING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A BUILDING HIGH
PRES SYSTEM OVER SE CANADA TO PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCT-SCT TSTMS. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE LONG TERM.

FRI-SUNDAY...A REFRESHING MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ON EAST WINDS
REPLACES THE PERSISTENT MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

WITH YET ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRES MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ALONG WITH FIRE DANGER WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE N/NW AT LESS THAN 10 KT. AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB
THIS EVENING.

VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF AROUND DAYBREAK.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF AFTERNOON WIND SHIFT...THAT COULD BE OFF BY
+/- 1 HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY KEEP WINDS
AT UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS AND ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS 1 FT OR
LESS AS A RESULT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 KT AND
SEAS OF 5 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/GC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/GC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/GC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010523
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY
T/TD/SKY AND WINDS.

SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH S OF LONG ISLAND BY
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND ITS PASSAGE...AND
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL A FEW DEGREES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO
DROP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 90 ON
TUESDAY IN NYC.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
WED...FOLLOWED BY GLANCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
PHASING THESE ENERGIES WELL EAST OF THE NE US...WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE WED AND THU. A WEAK
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
WED...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR. STRONGER CANADIAN COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS
WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAG SOUTH. DAY TIME
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO HIGH KBDI VALUES
AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S TO AROUND 85.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND UNSEASONABLE WARMTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS SHIFT FROM W TO N/NW...BUT REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KT. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE REGION AND
THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT
ON THE OCEAN...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/NV
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010523
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY
T/TD/SKY AND WINDS.

SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH S OF LONG ISLAND BY
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND ITS PASSAGE...AND
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL A FEW DEGREES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO
DROP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 90 ON
TUESDAY IN NYC.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
WED...FOLLOWED BY GLANCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
PHASING THESE ENERGIES WELL EAST OF THE NE US...WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE WED AND THU. A WEAK
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
WED...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR. STRONGER CANADIAN COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS
WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAG SOUTH. DAY TIME
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO HIGH KBDI VALUES
AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S TO AROUND 85.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND UNSEASONABLE WARMTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS SHIFT FROM W TO N/NW...BUT REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KT. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE REGION AND
THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT
ON THE OCEAN...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/NV
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 010523
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY
T/TD/SKY AND WINDS.

SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH S OF LONG ISLAND BY
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND ITS PASSAGE...AND
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL A FEW DEGREES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO
DROP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 90 ON
TUESDAY IN NYC.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
WED...FOLLOWED BY GLANCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
PHASING THESE ENERGIES WELL EAST OF THE NE US...WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE WED AND THU. A WEAK
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
WED...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR. STRONGER CANADIAN COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS
WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAG SOUTH. DAY TIME
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO HIGH KBDI VALUES
AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S TO AROUND 85.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND UNSEASONABLE WARMTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS SHIFT FROM W TO N/NW...BUT REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KT. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE REGION AND
THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT
ON THE OCEAN...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/NV
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 010523
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY
T/TD/SKY AND WINDS.

SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH S OF LONG ISLAND BY
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND ITS PASSAGE...AND
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL A FEW DEGREES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO
DROP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 90 ON
TUESDAY IN NYC.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
WED...FOLLOWED BY GLANCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
PHASING THESE ENERGIES WELL EAST OF THE NE US...WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE WED AND THU. A WEAK
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
WED...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR. STRONGER CANADIAN COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS
WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAG SOUTH. DAY TIME
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO HIGH KBDI VALUES
AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S TO AROUND 85.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND UNSEASONABLE WARMTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS SHIFT FROM W TO N/NW...BUT REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KT. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE REGION AND
THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT
ON THE OCEAN...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/NV
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010235
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1035 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY
T/TD/SKY AND WINDS.

SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH S OF LONG ISLAND BY
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND ITS PASSAGE...AND
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL A FEW DEGREES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO
DROP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 90 ON
TUESDAY IN NYC.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
WED...FOLLOWED BY GLANCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
PHASING THESE ENERGIES WELL EAST OF THE NE US...WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE WED AND THU. A WEAK
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
WED...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SETOFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR. STRONGER CANADIAN COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING
POTENTIAL OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAG SOUTH. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95
DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO HIGH KBDI VALUES
AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S TO AROUND 85.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND UNSEASONABLE WARMTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT.

VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF LATE TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS AT AROUND 10KT OR LESS THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS THEN FOLLOW LATE TONIGHT. A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS PROBABLY OCCURS BEFORE A SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH
LATE TUES MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE REGION AND
THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT
ON THE OCEAN...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 010235
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1035 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY
T/TD/SKY AND WINDS.

SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH S OF LONG ISLAND BY
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND ITS PASSAGE...AND
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL A FEW DEGREES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO
DROP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 90 ON
TUESDAY IN NYC.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
WED...FOLLOWED BY GLANCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
PHASING THESE ENERGIES WELL EAST OF THE NE US...WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE WED AND THU. A WEAK
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
WED...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SETOFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR. STRONGER CANADIAN COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING
POTENTIAL OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAG SOUTH. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95
DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO HIGH KBDI VALUES
AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S TO AROUND 85.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND UNSEASONABLE WARMTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT.

VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF LATE TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS AT AROUND 10KT OR LESS THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS THEN FOLLOW LATE TONIGHT. A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS PROBABLY OCCURS BEFORE A SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH
LATE TUES MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE REGION AND
THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT
ON THE OCEAN...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 312346
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
746 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY
T/TD/SKY AND WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT
MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A DRY
FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...GENERALLY FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO
DROP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
NYC.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 90 ON
TUESDAY IN NYC.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
WED...FOLLOWED BY GLANCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
PHASING THESE ENERGIES WELL EAST OF THE NE US...WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE WED AND THU. A WEAK
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
WED...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SETOFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR. STRONGER CANADIAN COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING
POTENTIAL OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAG SOUTH. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95
DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO HIGH KBDI VALUES
AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S TO AROUND 85.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND UNSEASONABLE WARMTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT.

VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF LATE TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS AT 10KT OR LESS THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
THEN FOLLOW LATE TONIGHT. A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS PROBABLY OCCURS BEFORE A SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH LATE TUES
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE REGION AND
THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT
ON THE OCEAN...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 312346
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
746 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY
T/TD/SKY AND WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT
MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A DRY
FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...GENERALLY FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO
DROP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
NYC.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 90 ON
TUESDAY IN NYC.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
WED...FOLLOWED BY GLANCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
PHASING THESE ENERGIES WELL EAST OF THE NE US...WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE WED AND THU. A WEAK
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
WED...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SETOFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR. STRONGER CANADIAN COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING
POTENTIAL OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAG SOUTH. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95
DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO HIGH KBDI VALUES
AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S TO AROUND 85.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND UNSEASONABLE WARMTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT.

VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF LATE TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS AT 10KT OR LESS THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
THEN FOLLOW LATE TONIGHT. A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS PROBABLY OCCURS BEFORE A SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH LATE TUES
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE REGION AND
THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT
ON THE OCEAN...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities