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000
FXUS61 KOKX 031513
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1113 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY FOLLOW TONIGHT. A COMPLEX
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN TAPERS OFF LATE THIS MORNING...WITH LOW COVERAGE OF RAIN FOR
THE AFTERNOON.

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST...AND WITH ONLY LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 00Z MODEL SUITE HINTING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.

THE CLOUDY RAINY CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING MUCH TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY
REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. SOME LOCATIONS RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 50S. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET DATA FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
WILL KEEP POPS AT CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE. IN ADDITION...WILL ALSO
INCLUDE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING OF EACH
SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS.

FOR TEMPERATURES...LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT FALL INTO THE 40S...TO NEAR
50. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WAS USED FOR SHORT TERM
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKY PATTERN
STARTS OFF THE PERIOD WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES SYSTEMS OVER THE ERN US
AND ERN PAC...WITH RIDGING IN BETWEEN AS WELL AS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS BREAKS DOWN AS IT
TRIES TO MOVE EWD WITH A SPLIT FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TRACKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRI AND THEN WEAKENS AS
IT CONSOLIDATES WITH A CANADIAN VORTEX OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THE
CUTOFF TRACKS TO THE E COAST...WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL RIDE UP THE
ERN SEABOARD...AND ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ALL HAVE THE SAME
IDEA...THERE ARE MAINLY TIMING...BUT SLIGHT STRENGTH ISSUES. THIS
MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMES OF RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA AND THUS CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THU WILL BE TOO BAD AS ONCE WAVE DEPARTS
AND THE NEXT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME WEAK LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHC
POPS BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MOSTLY DRY. THE 03/00Z EC LOOKS
MORE LIKE THE 00Z GFS WITH THE STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKING UP
THE EAST COAST ON FRI AND SHOULD HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF RAIN.

DUE TO THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCK OVER THE ATLANTIC...THE SYSTEM WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE OUT...ALTHOUGH AN UPSTREAM KICKER DIVING OUT OF
CANADA ON SAT SHOULD HELP. SCHC POPS SAT DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT
AND THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
RIDGING THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY TRACK S OF LONG
ISLAND INTO TONIGHT.

STEADY RAIN IS NOW MOSTLY OVER ERN CT/LONG ISLAND...BUT POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE OR HIT/MISS LIGHT RAIN STILL REMAIN ATTM. JUDGING FROM
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...PREVAILING CONDS
NOW APPEAR LESS LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AS EARLY AS ORIGINALLY
FCST...AND HAVE PUSHED THAT IMPROVEMENT FORWARD IN TIME TO ABOUT
20Z-21Z AT MOST SITES. THAT SAID...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MINOR
VARIABILITY FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH BRIEF WINDOWS OF MVFR...BUT
THEY WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AND ARE NOT REFLECTED IN TAF.

E-NE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING...AND THEN NE- ENE
LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL FLUCTUATIONS IN FLIGHT CAT POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY. AMD NOT EXPECTED UNLESS PREVAILING CONDS TREND
SOLIDLY AWAY FROM FCST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL FLUCTUATIONS IN FLIGHT CAT POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY. AMD NOT EXPECTED UNLESS PREVAILING CONDS TREND
SOLIDLY AWAY FROM FCST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL FLUCTUATIONS IN FLIGHT CAT POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY. AMD NOT EXPECTED UNLESS PREVAILING CONDS TREND
SOLIDLY AWAY FROM FCST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL FLUCTUATIONS IN FLIGHT CAT POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY. AMD NOT EXPECTED UNLESS PREVAILING CONDS TREND
SOLIDLY AWAY FROM FCST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL FLUCTUATIONS IN FLIGHT CAT POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY. AMD NOT EXPECTED UNLESS PREVAILING CONDS TREND
SOLIDLY AWAY FROM FCST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL FLUCTUATIONS IN FLIGHT CAT POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY. AMD NOT EXPECTED UNLESS PREVAILING CONDS TREND
SOLIDLY AWAY FROM FCST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH SAT...
PDS OF RAIN/FOG/LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. NE WINDS
G15-25KT POSSIBLE FRI-FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE
SEAS BRIEFLY TOUCH 5 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE
OF AN SCA. NE WINDS 10-15 KT EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT IF SEAS REACH 5 FT...THEY MAY LINGER ON THE FAR
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. OTHER THAN A LOW CHANCE OF 5 FT SEAS EARLY
ON THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY.

SCA POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS FOR MARGINAL WINDS AND SEAS WED
NIGHT...WITH SEAS POSSIBLY LINGERING ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THU NIGHT. LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE S WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHC FOR SCA WINDS ON THE OCEAN FRI...BUT MORE LIKELY
SEAS...CONTINUING INTO SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT AS BULK OF THE RAIN MOVES EAST
THIS AFTERNOON.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGHEST SPRING TIDE OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING WITH THE NEW MOON
ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE
DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES WED INTO FRI...AND LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THIS WEEKEND.

PERIODIC NE FLOW IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES WILL PREDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING...BUT THE THREAT IS THERE PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND/QUEENS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/24
NEAR TERM...BC/24/PW
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...GOODMAN/MALOIT
MARINE...BC/24/PW
HYDROLOGY...BC/24
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 031311
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
911 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY FOLLOW TONIGHT. A COMPLEX
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN TAPERS OFF LATE THIS MORNING...WITH LOW COVERAGE OF RAIN FOR
THE AFTERNOON.

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST...AND WITH ONLY LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 00Z MODEL SUITE HINTING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.

THE CLOUDY RAINY CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING MUCH TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY
REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. SOME LOCATIONS RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 50S. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET DATA FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
WILL KEEP POPS AT CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE. IN ADDITION...WILL ALSO
INCLUDE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING OF EACH
SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS.

FOR TEMPERATURES...LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT FALL INTO THE 40S...TO NEAR
50. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WAS USED FOR SHORT TERM
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKY PATTERN
STARTS OFF THE PERIOD WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES SYSTEMS OVER THE ERN US
AND ERN PAC...WITH RIDGING IN BETWEEN AS WELL AS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS BREAKS DOWN AS IT
TRIES TO MOVE EWD WITH A SPLIT FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TRACKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRI AND THEN WEAKENS AS
IT CONSOLIDATES WITH A CANADIAN VORTEX OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THE
CUTOFF TRACKS TO THE E COAST...WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL RIDE UP THE
ERN SEABOARD...AND ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ALL HAVE THE SAME
IDEA...THERE ARE MAINLY TIMING...BUT SLIGHT STRENGTH ISSUES. THIS
MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMES OF RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA AND THUS CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THU WILL BE TOO BAD AS ONCE WAVE DEPARTS
AND THE NEXT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME WEAK LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHC
POPS BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MOSTLY DRY. THE 03/00Z EC LOOKS
MORE LIKE THE 00Z GFS WITH THE STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKING UP
THE EAST COAST ON FRI AND SHOULD HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF RAIN.

DUE TO THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCK OVER THE ATLANTIC...THE SYSTEM WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE OUT...ALTHOUGH AN UPSTREAM KICKER DIVING OUT OF
CANADA ON SAT SHOULD HELP. SCHC POPS SAT DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT
AND THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
RIDGING THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY TRACK S OF LONG
ISLAND INTO TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AROUND MID MORNING AT CITY
TERMINALS...AND EARLY AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE. FOR NOW MAINTAIN MVFR
THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT AT KHPN/KGON WHERE IFR
SHOULD RETURN AROUND 6-7Z. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIOD
OF VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

NOTE...LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...AND THERE IS SOME
VARIABILITY IN CONDITIONS CATEGORIES - RANGING FROM LIFR TO
MVFR. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VARIABILITY
IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AT AREA TERMINALS TODAY. AT THIS TIME
THOUGH...CONFIDENCE IN CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORY BEYOND THOSE
INDICATED IN TAFS IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME NE-ENE AT LESS THAN 10 KT BY
11-13Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING. WINDS
BECOME NE-ENE AT LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT AT CITY AND CT
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABILITY IN
CEILING AND VISIBILITY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABILITY IN
CEILING AND VISIBILITY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABILITY IN
CEILING AND VISIBILITY.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABILITY IN
CEILING AND VISIBILITY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABILITY IN
CEILING AND VISIBILITY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABILITY IN
CEILING AND VISIBILITY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
RAIN/FOG/STRATUS. NE WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE
SEAS BRIEFLY TOUCH 5 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE
OF AN SCA. NE WINDS 10-15 KT EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT IF SEAS REACH 5 FT...THEY MAY LINGER ON THE FAR
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. OTHER THAN A LOW CHANCE OF 5 FT SEAS EARLY
ON THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY.

SCA POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS FOR MARGINAL WINDS AND SEAS WED
NIGHT...WITH SEAS POSSIBLY LINGERING ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THU NIGHT. LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE S WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHC FOR SCA WINDS ON THE OCEAN FRI...BUT MORE LIKELY
SEAS...CONTINUING INTO SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT AS BULK OF THE RAIN MOVES EAST
THIS AFTERNOON.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGHEST SPRING TIDE OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING WITH THE NEW MOON
ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE
DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES WED INTO FRI...AND LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THIS WEEKEND.

PERIODIC NE FLOW IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES WILL PREDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING...BUT THE THREAT IS THERE PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND/QUEENS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/24
NEAR TERM...BC/24/PW
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...BC/24/PW
HYDROLOGY...BC/24
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 031141
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
741 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY FOLLOW TONIGHT. A COMPLEX
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MINOR UPDATES TO POPS TO BETTER REFLECT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY...PROVIDING THE
REGION WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE MODERATE RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL GENERALLY COME TO AN END BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. WITH ONLY LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.

THE CLOUDY RAINY CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. SOME LOCATIONS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET DATA FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
WILL KEEP POPS AT CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE. IN ADDITION...WILL ALSO
INCLUDE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING OF EACH
SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS.

FOR TEMPERATURES...LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT FALL INTO THE 40S...TO NEAR
50. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WAS USED FOR SHORT TERM
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKY PATTERN
STARTS OFF THE PERIOD WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES SYSTEMS OVER THE ERN US
AND ERN PAC...WITH RIDGING IN BETWEEN AS WELL AS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS BREAKS DOWN AS IT
TRIES TO MOVE EWD WITH A SPLIT FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TRACKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRI AND THEN WEAKENS AS
IT CONSOLIDATES WITH A CANADIAN VORTEX OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THE
CUTOFF TRACKS TO THE E COAST...WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL RIDE UP THE
ERN SEABOARD...AND ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ALL HAVE THE SAME
IDEA...THERE ARE MAINLY TIMING...BUT SLIGHT STRENGTH ISSUES. THIS
MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMES OF RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA AND THUS CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THU WILL BE TOO BAD AS ONCE WAVE DEPARTS
AND THE NEXT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME WEAK LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHC
POPS BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MOSTLY DRY. THE 03/00Z EC LOOKS
MORE LIKE THE 00Z GFS WITH THE STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKING UP
THE EAST COAST ON FRI AND SHOULD HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF RAIN.

DUE TO THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCK OVER THE ATLANTIC...THE SYSTEM WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE OUT...ALTHOUGH AN UPSTREAM KICKER DIVING OUT OF
CANADA ON SAT SHOULD HELP. SCHC POPS SAT DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT
AND THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
RIDGING THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY TRACK S OF LONG
ISLAND INTO TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AROUND MID MORNING AT CITY
TERMINALS...AND EARLY AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE. FOR NOW MAINTAIN MVFR
THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT AT KHPN/KGON WHERE IFR
SHOULD RETURN AROUND 6-7Z. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIOD
OF VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

NOTE...LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...AND THERE IS SOME
VARIABILITY IN CONDITIONS CATEGORIES - RANGING FROM LIFR TO
MVFR. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VARIABILITY
IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AT AREA TERMINALS TODAY. AT THIS TIME
THOUGH...CONFIDENCE IN CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORY BEYOND THOSE
INDICATED IN TAFS IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME NE-ENE AT LESS THAN 10 KT BY
11-13Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING. WINDS
BECOME NE-ENE AT LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT AT CITY AND CT
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABILITY IN
CEILING AND VISIBILITY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABILITY IN
CEILING AND VISIBILITY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABILITY IN
CEILING AND VISIBILITY.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABILITY IN
CEILING AND VISIBILITY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABILITY IN
CEILING AND VISIBILITY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABILITY IN
CEILING AND VISIBILITY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
RAIN/FOG/STRATUS. NE WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TODAY AND TONIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE SEAS
BRIEFLY TOUCH 5 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF AN SCA. NE
WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT...BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IF
SEAS REACH 5 FT...THEY MAY LINGER ON THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.
OTHER THAN A LOW CHANCE OF 5 FT SEAS EARLY ON THE FAR EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

SCA POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS FOR MARGINAL WINDS AND SEAS WED
NIGHT...WITH SEAS POSSIBLY LINGERING ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THU NIGHT. LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE S WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHC FOR SCA WINDS ON THE OCEAN FRI...BUT MORE LIKELY
SEAS...CONTINUING INTO SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A QUARTER AND ONE INCH ARE
LIKELY TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO FALL ACROSS THE
NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...AND THE LOWER END BEING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MINOR NUISANCE
FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE OF ANY MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN OCCURS.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGHEST SPRING TIDE OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING WITH THE NEW MOON
ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE
DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES WED INTO FRI...AND LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THIS WEEKEND.

PERIODIC NE FLOW IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES WILL PREDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING...BUT THE THREAT IS THERE PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND/QUEENS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/24
NEAR TERM...BC/24
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...BC/24
HYDROLOGY...BC/24
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 030835
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
435 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY FOLLOW TONIGHT. A COMPLEX
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY...PROVIDING
THE REGION WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE MODERATE
RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL GENERALLY COME TO AN
END BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WITH ONLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.

THE CLOUDY RAINY CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. SOME LOCATIONS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET DATA FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
WILL KEEP POPS AT CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE. IN ADDITION...WILL ALSO
INCLUDE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING OF EACH
SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS.

FOR TEMPERATURES...LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT FALL INTO THE 40S...TO NEAR
50. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WAS USED FOR SHORT TERM
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKY PATTERN
STARTS OFF THE PERIOD WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES SYSTEMS OVER THE ERN US
AND ERN PAC...WITH RIDGING IN BETWEEN AS WELL AS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS BREAKS DOWN AS IT
TRIES TO MOVE EWD WITH A SPLIT FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TRACKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRI AND THEN WEAKENS AS
IT CONSOLIDATES WITH A CANADIAN VORTEX OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THE
CUTOFF TRACKS TO THE E COAST...WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL RIDE UP THE
ERN SEABOARD...AND ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ALL HAVE THE SAME
IDEA...THERE ARE MAINLY TIMING...BUT SLIGHT STRENGTH ISSUES. THIS
MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMES OF RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA AND THUS CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THU WILL BE TOO BAD AS ONCE WAVE DEPARTS
AND THE NEXT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME WEAK LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHC
POPS BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MOSTLY DRY. THE 03/00Z EC LOOKS
MORE LIKE THE 00Z GFS WITH THE STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKING UP
THE EAST COAST ON FRI AND SHOULD HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF RAIN.

DUE TO THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCK OVER THE ATLANTIC...THE SYSTEM WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE OUT...ALTHOUGH AN UPSTREAM KICKER DIVING OUT OF
CANADA ON SAT SHOULD HELP. SCHC POPS SAT DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT
AND THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
RIDGING THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY TRACK S OF LONG
ISLAND INTO TONIGHT.

IFR DEVELOPS AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS STEADY LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN MOVE IN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AROUND
MIDDAY. FOR NOW MAINTAIN MVFR THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD...EXCEPT AT KHPN WHERE IFR SHOULD RETURN AROUND 00Z.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING FOR ALL BUT KHPN.

NOTE...LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...AND THERE IS SOME
VARIABILITY IN CONDITIONS CATEGORIES - RANGING FROM LIFR TO
MVFR. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VARIABILITY
IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AT AREA TERMINALS TODAY. AT THIS TIME
THOUGH...CONFIDENCE IN CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORY BEYOND THOSE
INDICATED IN TAFS IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME NE-ENE AROUND 10 KT BY
11-13Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABILITY IN
CEILING AND VISIBILITY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABILITY IN
CEILING AND VISIBILITY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABILITY IN
CEILING AND VISIBILITY.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABILITY IN
CEILING AND VISIBILITY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABILITY IN
CEILING AND VISIBILITY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABILITY IN
CEILING AND VISIBILITY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...MVFR LIKELY...WITH IFR IN FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
RAIN/FOG/STRATUS. NE WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TODAY AND TONIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE SEAS
BRIEFLY TOUCH 5 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF AN SCA. NE
WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT...BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IF
SEAS REACH 5 FT...THEY MAY LINGER ON THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.
OTHER THAN A LOW CHANCE OF 5 FT SEAS EARLY ON THE FAR EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

SCA POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS FOR MARGINAL WINDS AND SEAS WED
NIGHT...WITH SEAS POSSIBLY LINGERING ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THU NIGHT. LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE S WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHC FOR SCA WINDS ON THE OCEAN FRI...BUT MORE LIKELY
SEAS...CONTINUING INTO SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A QUARTER AND ONE INCH ARE
LIKELY TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO FALL ACROSS THE
NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...AND THE LOWER END BEING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MINOR NUISANCE
FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE OF ANY MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN OCCURS.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGHEST SPRING TIDE OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING WITH THE NEW MOON
ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE
DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES WED INTO FRI...AND LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THIS WEEKEND.

PERIODIC NE FLOW IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES WILL PREDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING...BUT THE THREAT IS THERE PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND/QUEENS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/24
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...BC/24
HYDROLOGY...BC/24
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 030732
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
332 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY FOLLOW TONIGHT. A COMPLEX
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY...PROVIDING
THE REGION WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE MODERATE
RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL GENERALLY COME TO AN
END BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WITH ONLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.

THE CLOUDY RAINY CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. SOME LOCATIONS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET DATA FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
WILL KEEP POPS AT CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE. IN ADDITION...WILL ALSO
INCLUDE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING OF EACH
SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS.

FOR TEMPERATURES...LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT FALL INTO THE 40S...TO NEAR
50. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WAS USED FOR SHORT TERM
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKY PATTERN
STARTS OFF THE PERIOD WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES SYSTEMS OVER THE ERN US
AND ERN PAC...WITH RIDGING IN BETWEEN AS WELL AS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS BREAKS DOWN AS IT
TRIES TO MOVE EWD WITH A SPLIT FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TRACKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRI AND THEN WEAKENS AS
IT CONSOLIDATES WITH A CANADIAN VORTEX OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THE
CUTOFF TRACKS TO THE E COAST...WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL RIDE UP THE
ERN SEABOARD...AND ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ALL HAVE THE SAME
IDEA...THERE ARE MAINLY TIMING...BUT SLIGHT STRENGTH ISSUES. THIS
MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMES OF RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA AND THUS CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THU WILL BE TOO BAD AS ONCE WAVE DEPARTS
AND THE NEXT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME WEAK LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHC
POPS BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MOSTLY DRY. THE 03/00Z EC LOOKS
MORE LIKE THE 00Z GFS WITH THE STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKING UP
THE EAST COAST ON FRI AND SHOULD HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF RAIN.

DUE TO THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCK OVER THE ATLANTIC...THE SYSTEM WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE OUT...ALTHOUGH AN UPSTREAM KICKER DIVING OUT OF
CANADA ON SAT SHOULD HELP. SCHC POPS SAT DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT
AND THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
RIDGING THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY TRACK S OF LONG
ISLAND INTO TONIGHT.

IFR DEVELOPS AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS STEADY LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN MOVE IN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AROUND
MIDDAY. FOR NOW MAINTAIN MVFR THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD...EXCEPT AT KHPN WHERE IFR SHOULD RETURN AROUND 00Z.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING FOR ALL BUT KHPN.

CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME NE-ENE AROUND 10 KT AROUND
12Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...MVFR LIKELY...WITH IFR IN FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
RAIN/FOG/STRATUS. NE WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TODAY AND TONIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE SEAS
BRIEFLY TOUCH 5 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF AN SCA. NE
WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT...BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IF
SEAS REACH 5 FT...THEY MAY LINGER ON THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.
OTHER THAN A LOW CHANCE OF 5 FT SEAS EARLY ON THE FAR EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

SCA POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS FOR MARGINAL WINDS AND SEAS WED
NIGHT...WITH SEAS POSSIBLY LINGERING ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THU NIGHT. LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE S WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHC FOR SCA WINDS ON THE OCEAN FRI...BUT MORE LIKELY
SEAS...CONTINUING INTO SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A QUARTER AND ONE INCH ARE
LIKELY TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO FALL ACROSS THE
NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...AND THE LOWER END BEING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MINOR NUISANCE
FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE OF ANY MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN OCCURS.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGHEST SPRING TIDE OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING WITH THE NEW MOON
ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE
DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES WED INTO FRI...AND LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THIS WEEKEND.

PERIODIC NE FLOW IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES WILL PREDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING...BUT THE THREAT IS THERE PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND/QUEENS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/24
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...BC/24
HYDROLOGY...BC/24
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 030604
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
204 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-
STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER IS ON TAP AS AN UPPER
TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID
WEEK. PRECEDING THIS TROF...WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE...THE FIRST OF WHICH TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT TO JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MORNING. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT..ALBEIT THERE ARE SOME
SMALL TIMING ISSUES...FOR A DECENT BANDED RAIN EVENT LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COUPLED WITH A VORTICITY
MAXIMUM APPROACHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE ABOUT HALF
TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
LONG ISLAND. THE RAIN WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SW TO NE
WITH ABOUT A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO START ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IN ADDITION...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG CONTINUES
TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING RAIN.

DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE SMALL THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD OVER AND NE FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATE RAIN WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY. GENERALLY THOUGH LOOKING AT LOW RAIN CHANCES BY
AFTERNOON WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PASSING WELL TO THE
EAST AND ONLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH A EVEN A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

ONCE AGAIN...DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE SMALL...WITH HIGHS TUE
IN THE 50S...WITH LOWS TUE NIGHT ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER. THIS
WILL EQUATE TO WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THE REGARDING CUTOFF LOW THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY TRACKS SE TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO
SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE COAST ON SATURDAY AS A NEW NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS ON SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THERE IS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES EXIST IN ANY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
DEVELOPS ON A STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE
DEPICTED WITH THE LATEST MODELS WHICH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH THE
DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HAVE ALSO ELECTED TO REMAIN PERSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GENERALLY CHANCE POPS. TIMING ENERGY
WITHING THE CUTOFF LOW REMAINS DIFFICULT. IT WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE
WASH OUT...BUT PERIODS OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME. THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE SIGNALING THAT FRIDAY MAY BE
THE DAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THIS IS WHEN THE CUTOFF LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NE TOWARDS THE AREA AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SHOW A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...POPS INCREASE BACK TO CHANCE.

AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...BUT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS STILL DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES COULD COME CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY TRACK S OF LONG
ISLAND INTO TONIGHT.

IFR DEVELOPS AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS STEADY LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN MOVE IN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AROUND
MIDDAY. FOR NOW MAINTAIN MVFR THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD...EXCEPT AT KHPN WHERE IFR SHOULD RETURN AROUND 00Z.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING FOR ALL BUT KHPN.

CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME NE-ENE AROUND 10 KT AROUND
12Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...MVFR LIKELY...WITH IFR IN FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
RAIN/FOG/STRATUS. NE WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUE WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF SEAS AROUND 5 FT LATE TUE AFT/EARLY EVE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE
OF AN SCA. NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUE
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ON ALL COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO WINDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OCEAN SEAS MAY COME
CLOSE TO 5 FT AT TIMES WITH A PERSISTENT SE SWELL...MAINLY ON THE
WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO AN INCH IS FORECAST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
FALL ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WITH THE LOWER END BEING
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MINOR
NUISANCE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGHEST SPRING TIDE OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING WITH THE NEW
MOON ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES WED INTO FRI...AND LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

PERIODIC NE FLOW IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES WILL PREDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING...BUT THE THREAT IS THERE PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND/QUEENS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FEB/DW/DS
NEAR TERM...FEB/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...DW/DS
HYDROLOGY...DW/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 030604
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
204 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-
STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER IS ON TAP AS AN UPPER
TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID
WEEK. PRECEDING THIS TROF...WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE...THE FIRST OF WHICH TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT TO JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MORNING. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT..ALBEIT THERE ARE SOME
SMALL TIMING ISSUES...FOR A DECENT BANDED RAIN EVENT LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COUPLED WITH A VORTICITY
MAXIMUM APPROACHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE ABOUT HALF
TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
LONG ISLAND. THE RAIN WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SW TO NE
WITH ABOUT A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO START ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IN ADDITION...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG CONTINUES
TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING RAIN.

DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE SMALL THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD OVER AND NE FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATE RAIN WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY. GENERALLY THOUGH LOOKING AT LOW RAIN CHANCES BY
AFTERNOON WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PASSING WELL TO THE
EAST AND ONLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH A EVEN A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

ONCE AGAIN...DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE SMALL...WITH HIGHS TUE
IN THE 50S...WITH LOWS TUE NIGHT ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER. THIS
WILL EQUATE TO WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THE REGARDING CUTOFF LOW THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY TRACKS SE TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO
SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE COAST ON SATURDAY AS A NEW NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS ON SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THERE IS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES EXIST IN ANY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
DEVELOPS ON A STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE
DEPICTED WITH THE LATEST MODELS WHICH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH THE
DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HAVE ALSO ELECTED TO REMAIN PERSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GENERALLY CHANCE POPS. TIMING ENERGY
WITHING THE CUTOFF LOW REMAINS DIFFICULT. IT WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE
WASH OUT...BUT PERIODS OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME. THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE SIGNALING THAT FRIDAY MAY BE
THE DAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THIS IS WHEN THE CUTOFF LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NE TOWARDS THE AREA AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SHOW A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...POPS INCREASE BACK TO CHANCE.

AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...BUT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS STILL DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES COULD COME CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY TRACK S OF LONG
ISLAND INTO TONIGHT.

IFR DEVELOPS AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS STEADY LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN MOVE IN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AROUND
MIDDAY. FOR NOW MAINTAIN MVFR THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD...EXCEPT AT KHPN WHERE IFR SHOULD RETURN AROUND 00Z.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING FOR ALL BUT KHPN.

CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME NE-ENE AROUND 10 KT AROUND
12Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...MVFR LIKELY...WITH IFR IN FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
RAIN/FOG/STRATUS. NE WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUE WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF SEAS AROUND 5 FT LATE TUE AFT/EARLY EVE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE
OF AN SCA. NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUE
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ON ALL COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO WINDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OCEAN SEAS MAY COME
CLOSE TO 5 FT AT TIMES WITH A PERSISTENT SE SWELL...MAINLY ON THE
WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO AN INCH IS FORECAST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
FALL ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WITH THE LOWER END BEING
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MINOR
NUISANCE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGHEST SPRING TIDE OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING WITH THE NEW
MOON ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES WED INTO FRI...AND LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

PERIODIC NE FLOW IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES WILL PREDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING...BUT THE THREAT IS THERE PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND/QUEENS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FEB/DW/DS
NEAR TERM...FEB/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...DW/DS
HYDROLOGY...DW/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 030225
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1025 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-
STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER IS ON TAP AS AN UPPER
TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID
WEEK. PRECEDING THIS TROF...WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE...THE FIRST OF WHICH TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT TO JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MORNING. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT..ALBEIT THERE ARE SOME
SMALL TIMING ISSUES...FOR A DECENT BANDED RAIN EVENT LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COUPLED WITH A VORT
APPROACHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE ABOUT HALF TO ONE
INCH OF RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS LI. THE
RAIN WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SW TO NE WITH ABOUT A 3 TO 5
HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO START ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IN ADDITION...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG CONTINUES
TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING RAIN.

DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE SMALL THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD OVER AND NE FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE RAIN WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY. GENERALLY THOUGH LOOKING AT LOW RAIN CHANCES BY
AFTERNOON WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PASSING WELL TO THE
EAST AND ONLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH A EVEN A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

ONCE AGAIN...DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE SMALL...WITH HIGHS TUE
IN THE 50S...WITH LOWS TUE NIGHT ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER. THIS
WILL EQUATE TO WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THE REGARDING CUTOFF LOW THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY TRACKS SE TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO
SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE COAST ON SATURDAY AS A NEW NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS ON SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THERE IS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES EXIST IN ANY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
DEVELOPS ON A STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE
DEPICTED WITH THE LATEST MODELS WHICH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH THE
DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HAVE ALSO ELECTED TO REMAIN PERSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GENERALLY CHANCE POPS. TIMING ENERGY
WITHING THE CUTOFF LOW REMAINS DIFFICULT. IT WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE
WASH OUT...BUT PERIODS OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME. THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE SIGNALING THAT FRIDAY MAY BE
THE DAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THIS IS WHEN THE CUTOFF LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NE TOWARDS THE AREA AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SHOW A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...POPS INCREASE BACK TO CHANCE.

AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...BUT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS STILL DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES COULD COME CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC APPROACHES NY AIRSPACE
TONIGHT...AND WILL TRACK SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KJFK/KISP/KGON BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN THIS
EVENING...AS THIS HAS BEEN NOTED ALONG THE NJ COAST AND EASTERN
LI.

OTHERWISE...RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z
TONIGHT...WITH CIGS/VSBY DROPPING BACK TO MVFR...THEN IFR/LIFR.
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC/NJ METRO AND LI
TERMINALS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/TIMING TO PUT
EXPLICIT THUNDER IN TAFS. RA/TSRA ENDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z FROM
SW TO NE.

CIGS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TO MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH VSBY LIKELY IMPROVING QUICKER TO MVFR
THEN VFR THROUGH THE MORNING. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LOW PROB OF IFR CIGS HOLDING ON THROUGH
THE DAY...AND ON THE FLIP SIDE THERE IS A LOW PROB OF VFR CIGS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON.

LGT/VRB WINDS THIS EVENING...BECOME NE 8-12 KT LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO TUE AFT...POSSIBLY VEERING SE LATE TUE FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDS LIKELY. IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN
RAIN/FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SEAS AROUND 5 FT LATE TUE AFT/EARLY EVE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE
OF AN SCA. NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUE
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ON ALL COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO WINDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OCEAN SEAS MAY COME
CLOSE TO 5 FT AT TIMES WITH A PERSISTENT SE SWELL...MAINLY ON THE
WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO AN INCH IS FORECAST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
FALL ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WITH THE LOWER END BEING
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MINOR
NUISANCE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGHEST SPRING TIDE OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING WITH THE NEW
MOON ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES WED INTO FRI...AND LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

PERIODIC NE FLOW IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES WILL PREDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING...BUT THE THREAT IS THERE PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LI/QUEENS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FEB/DS/DW
NEAR TERM...FEB/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 022356
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
756 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-
STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER IS ON TAP AS AN UPPER
TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID
WEEK. PRECEDING THIS TROF...WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE...THE FIRST OF WHICH TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT TO JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MORNING. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT..ALBEIT THERE ARE SOME
SMALL TIMING ISSUES...FOR A DECENT BANDED RAIN EVENT LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COUPLED WITH A VORT
APPROACHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE ABOUT HALF TO ONE
INCH OF RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS LI. THE
RAIN WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SW TO NE WITH ABOUT A 3 TO 5
HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL WAVE
AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...ADDED THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT PRIOR TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL
BE OVERCAST. DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE SMALL THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD OVER AND NE FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE RAIN WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY. GENERALLY THOUGH LOOKING AT LOW RAIN CHANCES BY
AFTERNOON WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PASSING WELL TO THE
EAST AND ONLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH A EVEN A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

ONCE AGAIN...DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE SMALL...WITH HIGHS TUE
IN THE 50S...WITH LOWS TUE NIGHT ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER. THIS
WILL EQUATE TO WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THE REGARDING CUTOFF LOW THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY TRACKS SE TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO
SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE COAST ON SATURDAY AS A NEW NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS ON SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THERE IS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES EXIST IN ANY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
DEVELOPS ON A STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE
DEPICTED WITH THE LATEST MODELS WHICH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH THE
DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HAVE ALSO ELECTED TO REMAIN PERSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GENERALLY CHANCE POPS. TIMING ENERGY
WITHING THE CUTOFF LOW REMAINS DIFFICULT. IT WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE
WASH OUT...BUT PERIODS OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME. THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE SIGNALING THAT FRIDAY MAY BE
THE DAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THIS IS WHEN THE CUTOFF LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NE TOWARDS THE AREA AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SHOW A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...POPS INCREASE BACK TO CHANCE.

AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...BUT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS STILL DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES COULD COME CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC APPROACHES NY AIRSPACE
TONIGHT...AND WILL TRACK SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

SCT/BKN MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY IFR/MVFR
FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 00Z ACROSS OUTLYING AIRPORTS IF CLEARING IS
MORE PRONOUNCED.

THEN EXPECTING RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z
TONIGHT...WITH CIGS/VSBY DROPPING BACK TO IFR...POSSIBLY LIFR.
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC/NJ METRO AND LI
TERMINALS. RA/TSRA ENDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z FROM SW TO NE.

CIGS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TO MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH VSBY LIKELY IMPROVING QUICKER TO MVFR
THEN VFR THROUGH THE MORNING. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LOW PROB OF IFR CIGS HOLDING ON THROUGH
THE DAY.

LIGHT S/SW WINDS BECOMING LGT/VRB THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME NE
8-12 KT LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUE AFT...POSSIBLY VEERING
SE LATE TUE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB OF LIFR OR LOWER CONDS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
00Z AND 05Z IN STRATUS/FOG. CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB OF LIFR OR LOWER CONDS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
00Z AND 05Z IN STRATUS/FOG. CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDS LIKELY. IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN
RAIN/FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SEAS AROUND 5 FT LATE TUE AFT/EARLY EVE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE
OF AN SCA. NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUE
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ON ALL COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO WINDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OCEAN SEAS MAY COME
CLOSE TO 5 FT AT TIMES WITH A PERSISTENT SE SWELL...MAINLY ON THE
WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO AN INCH IS FORECAST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
FALL ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WITH THE LOWER END BEING
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MINOR
NUISANCE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGHEST SPRING TIDE OF THE  EAR IS APPROACHING WITH THE NEW
MOON ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES WED INTO FRI...AND LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

PERIODIC NE FLOW IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES WILL PREDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING...BUT THE THREAT IS THERE PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LI/QUEENS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FEB/DS/DW
NEAR TERM...FEB/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 022356
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
756 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-
STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER IS ON TAP AS AN UPPER
TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID
WEEK. PRECEDING THIS TROF...WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE...THE FIRST OF WHICH TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT TO JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MORNING. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT..ALBEIT THERE ARE SOME
SMALL TIMING ISSUES...FOR A DECENT BANDED RAIN EVENT LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COUPLED WITH A VORT
APPROACHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE ABOUT HALF TO ONE
INCH OF RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS LI. THE
RAIN WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SW TO NE WITH ABOUT A 3 TO 5
HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL WAVE
AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...ADDED THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT PRIOR TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL
BE OVERCAST. DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE SMALL THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD OVER AND NE FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE RAIN WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY. GENERALLY THOUGH LOOKING AT LOW RAIN CHANCES BY
AFTERNOON WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PASSING WELL TO THE
EAST AND ONLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH A EVEN A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

ONCE AGAIN...DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE SMALL...WITH HIGHS TUE
IN THE 50S...WITH LOWS TUE NIGHT ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER. THIS
WILL EQUATE TO WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THE REGARDING CUTOFF LOW THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY TRACKS SE TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO
SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE COAST ON SATURDAY AS A NEW NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS ON SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THERE IS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES EXIST IN ANY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
DEVELOPS ON A STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE
DEPICTED WITH THE LATEST MODELS WHICH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH THE
DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HAVE ALSO ELECTED TO REMAIN PERSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GENERALLY CHANCE POPS. TIMING ENERGY
WITHING THE CUTOFF LOW REMAINS DIFFICULT. IT WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE
WASH OUT...BUT PERIODS OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME. THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE SIGNALING THAT FRIDAY MAY BE
THE DAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THIS IS WHEN THE CUTOFF LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NE TOWARDS THE AREA AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SHOW A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...POPS INCREASE BACK TO CHANCE.

AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...BUT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS STILL DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES COULD COME CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC APPROACHES NY AIRSPACE
TONIGHT...AND WILL TRACK SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

SCT/BKN MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY IFR/MVFR
FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 00Z ACROSS OUTLYING AIRPORTS IF CLEARING IS
MORE PRONOUNCED.

THEN EXPECTING RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z
TONIGHT...WITH CIGS/VSBY DROPPING BACK TO IFR...POSSIBLY LIFR.
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC/NJ METRO AND LI
TERMINALS. RA/TSRA ENDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z FROM SW TO NE.

CIGS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TO MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH VSBY LIKELY IMPROVING QUICKER TO MVFR
THEN VFR THROUGH THE MORNING. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LOW PROB OF IFR CIGS HOLDING ON THROUGH
THE DAY.

LIGHT S/SW WINDS BECOMING LGT/VRB THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME NE
8-12 KT LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUE AFT...POSSIBLY VEERING
SE LATE TUE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB OF LIFR OR LOWER CONDS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
00Z AND 05Z IN STRATUS/FOG. CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB OF LIFR OR LOWER CONDS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
00Z AND 05Z IN STRATUS/FOG. CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDS LIKELY. IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN
RAIN/FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SEAS AROUND 5 FT LATE TUE AFT/EARLY EVE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE
OF AN SCA. NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUE
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ON ALL COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO WINDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OCEAN SEAS MAY COME
CLOSE TO 5 FT AT TIMES WITH A PERSISTENT SE SWELL...MAINLY ON THE
WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO AN INCH IS FORECAST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
FALL ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WITH THE LOWER END BEING
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MINOR
NUISANCE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGHEST SPRING TIDE OF THE  EAR IS APPROACHING WITH THE NEW
MOON ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES WED INTO FRI...AND LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

PERIODIC NE FLOW IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES WILL PREDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING...BUT THE THREAT IS THERE PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LI/QUEENS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FEB/DS/DW
NEAR TERM...FEB/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 022306
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
706 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-
STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER IS ON TAP AS AN UPPER
TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID
WEEK. PRECEDING THIS TROF...WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE...THE FIRST OF WHICH TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT TO JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MORNING. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT..ALBEIT THERE ARE SOME
SMALL TIMING ISSUES...FOR A DECENT BANDED RAIN EVENT LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COUPLED WITH A VORT
APPROACHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE ABOUT HALF TO ONE
INCH OF RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS LI. THE
RAIN WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SW TO NE WITH ABOUT A 3 TO 5
HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL WAVE
AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...ADDED THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT PRIOR TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL
BE OVERCAST. DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE SMALL THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD OVER AND NE FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE RAIN WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY. GENERALLY THOUGH LOOKING AT LOW RAIN CHANCES BY
AFTERNOON WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PASSING WELL TO THE
EAST AND ONLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH A EVEN A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

ONCE AGAIN...DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE SMALL...WITH HIGHS TUE
IN THE 50S...WITH LOWS TUE NIGHT ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER. THIS
WILL EQUATE TO WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THE REGARDING CUTOFF LOW THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY TRACKS SE TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO
SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE COAST ON SATURDAY AS A NEW NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS ON SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THERE IS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES EXIST IN ANY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
DEVELOPS ON A STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE
DEPICTED WITH THE LATEST MODELS WHICH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH THE
DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HAVE ALSO ELECTED TO REMAIN PERSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GENERALLY CHANCE POPS. TIMING ENERGY
WITHING THE CUTOFF LOW REMAINS DIFFICULT. IT WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE
WASH OUT...BUT PERIODS OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME. THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE SIGNALING THAT FRIDAY MAY BE
THE DAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THIS IS WHEN THE CUTOFF LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NE TOWARDS THE AREA AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SHOW A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...POPS INCREASE BACK TO CHANCE.

AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...BUT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS STILL DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES COULD COME CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRES SLOWLY APPROACHES NY AIRSPACE TONIGHT...AND WILL PASS SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCT/BKN MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING IN WAKE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 00Z ACROSS
OUTLYING AIRPORTS IF CLEARING IS MORE PRONOUNCED.

THEN EXPECTING RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z
TONIGHT...WITH CIGS/VSBY DROPPING BACK TO IFR...POSSIBLY LIFR.
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC/NJ METRO AND LI
TERMINALS. RA/TSRA ENDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z FROM SW TO NE.

CIGS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TO MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH VSBY LIKELY IMPROVING QUICKER TO MVFR
THEN VFR THROUGH THE MORNING.

LIGHT S/SW WINDS BECOMING LGT/VRB THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME NE 5-10
KT LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON TUE...POSSIBLY VEERING SE LATE TUE.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB OF LIFR OR LOWER CONDS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
00Z AND 05Z IN STRATUS/FOG. CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB OF LIFR OR LOWER CONDS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
00Z AND 05Z IN STRATUS/FOG. CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN
RAIN/FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SEAS AROUND 5 FT LATE TUE AFT/EARLY EVE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE
OF AN SCA. NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUE
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ON ALL COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO WINDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OCEAN SEAS MAY COME
CLOSE TO 5 FT AT TIMES WITH A PERSISTENT SE SWELL...MAINLY ON THE
WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO AN INCH IS FORECAST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
FALL ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WITH THE LOWER END BEING
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MINOR
NUISANCE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DW/FEB
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 022306
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
706 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-
STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER IS ON TAP AS AN UPPER
TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID
WEEK. PRECEDING THIS TROF...WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE...THE FIRST OF WHICH TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT TO JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MORNING. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT..ALBEIT THERE ARE SOME
SMALL TIMING ISSUES...FOR A DECENT BANDED RAIN EVENT LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COUPLED WITH A VORT
APPROACHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE ABOUT HALF TO ONE
INCH OF RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS LI. THE
RAIN WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SW TO NE WITH ABOUT A 3 TO 5
HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL WAVE
AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...ADDED THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT PRIOR TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL
BE OVERCAST. DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE SMALL THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD OVER AND NE FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE RAIN WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY. GENERALLY THOUGH LOOKING AT LOW RAIN CHANCES BY
AFTERNOON WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PASSING WELL TO THE
EAST AND ONLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH A EVEN A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

ONCE AGAIN...DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE SMALL...WITH HIGHS TUE
IN THE 50S...WITH LOWS TUE NIGHT ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER. THIS
WILL EQUATE TO WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THE REGARDING CUTOFF LOW THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY TRACKS SE TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO
SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE COAST ON SATURDAY AS A NEW NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS ON SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THERE IS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES EXIST IN ANY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
DEVELOPS ON A STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE
DEPICTED WITH THE LATEST MODELS WHICH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH THE
DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HAVE ALSO ELECTED TO REMAIN PERSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GENERALLY CHANCE POPS. TIMING ENERGY
WITHING THE CUTOFF LOW REMAINS DIFFICULT. IT WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE
WASH OUT...BUT PERIODS OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME. THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE SIGNALING THAT FRIDAY MAY BE
THE DAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THIS IS WHEN THE CUTOFF LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NE TOWARDS THE AREA AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SHOW A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...POPS INCREASE BACK TO CHANCE.

AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...BUT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS STILL DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES COULD COME CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRES SLOWLY APPROACHES NY AIRSPACE TONIGHT...AND WILL PASS SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCT/BKN MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING IN WAKE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 00Z ACROSS
OUTLYING AIRPORTS IF CLEARING IS MORE PRONOUNCED.

THEN EXPECTING RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z
TONIGHT...WITH CIGS/VSBY DROPPING BACK TO IFR...POSSIBLY LIFR.
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC/NJ METRO AND LI
TERMINALS. RA/TSRA ENDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z FROM SW TO NE.

CIGS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TO MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH VSBY LIKELY IMPROVING QUICKER TO MVFR
THEN VFR THROUGH THE MORNING.

LIGHT S/SW WINDS BECOMING LGT/VRB THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME NE 5-10
KT LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON TUE...POSSIBLY VEERING SE LATE TUE.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB OF LIFR OR LOWER CONDS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
00Z AND 05Z IN STRATUS/FOG. CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB OF LIFR OR LOWER CONDS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
00Z AND 05Z IN STRATUS/FOG. CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN
RAIN/FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SEAS AROUND 5 FT LATE TUE AFT/EARLY EVE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE
OF AN SCA. NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUE
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ON ALL COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO WINDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OCEAN SEAS MAY COME
CLOSE TO 5 FT AT TIMES WITH A PERSISTENT SE SWELL...MAINLY ON THE
WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO AN INCH IS FORECAST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
FALL ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WITH THE LOWER END BEING
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MINOR
NUISANCE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DW/FEB
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 021926
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
326 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST...PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER IS ON TAP AS AN UPPER
TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID
WEEK. PRECEDING THIS TROF...WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE...THE FIRST OF WHICH EJECTS FROM THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT TO
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MORNING. 12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT..ALBEIT THERE ARE SOME SMALL TIMING ISSUES...FOR
A DECENT BANDED RAIN EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COUPLED WITH A VORT APPROACHING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE ABOUT HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS LI. THE RAIN WILL DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SW TO NE WITH ABOUT A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE OVERCAST...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY THIS EVE FOR SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL WAVE. DIURNAL TEMP
RANGES WILL BE SMALL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD
OVER AND NE FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE RAIN WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY. GENERALLY THOUGH LOOKING AT LOW RAIN CHANCES BY
AFTERNOON WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PASSING WELL TO THE
EAST AND ONLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH A EVEN A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

ONCE AGAIN...DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE SMALL...WITH HIGHS TUE
IN THE 50S...WITH LOWS TUE NIGHT ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER. THIS
WILL EQUATE TO WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THE REGARDING CUTOFF LOW THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY TRACKS SE TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO
SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE COAST ON SATURDAY AS A NEW NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS ON SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THERE IS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES EXIST IN ANY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
DEVELOPS ON A STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE
DEPICTED WITH THE LATEST MODELS WHICH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH THE
DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HAVE ALSO ELECTED TO REMAIN PERSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GENERALLY CHANCE POPS. TIMING ENERGY
WITHING THE CUTOFF LOW REMAINS DIFFICULT. IT WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE
WASH OUT...BUT PERIODS OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME. THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE SIGNALING THAT FRIDAY MAY BE
THE DAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THIS IS WHEN THE CUTOFF LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NE TOWARDS THE AREA AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SHOW A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...POPS INCREASE BACK TO CHANCE.

AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...BUT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS STILL DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES COULD COME CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRES SLOWLY APPROACHES NY AIRSPACE TONIGHT...AND WILL PASS SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

MVFR/IFR FORECAST WITH CIGS GENERALLY 700-1200 FT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 500 FT THIS EVENING...AND VSBYS WILL DROP AS
WELL AS FOG DEVELOPS.

RAIN DEVELOPS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL IMPACT
KNYC/KISP. VSBYS WILL DROP TO 1SM...AND CIGS WILL BE 500 FT OR
LESS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. CONDS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS...BCMG LGT/VRB THIS EVENING. E-NE WINDS
THEN INCREASE TO 5-10 KT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS AROUND 1000 FT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS AROUND 1000 FT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN
RAIN/FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SEAS AROUND 5 FT LATE TUE AFT/EARLY EVE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE
OF AN SCA. NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUE
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ON ALL COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO WINDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OCEAN SEAS MAY COME
CLOSE TO 5 FT AT TIMES WITH A PERSISTENT SE SWELL...MAINLY ON THE
WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO AN INCH IS FORECAST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
FALL ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WITH THE LOWER END BEING
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MINOR
NUISANCE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 021925
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
325 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST...PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER IS ON TAP AS AN UPPER
TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID
WEEK. PRECEDING THIS TROF...WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE...THE FIRST OF WHICH EJECTS FROM THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT TO
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MORNING. 12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT..ALBEIT THERE ARE SOME SMALL TIMING ISSUES...FOR
A DECENT BANDED RAIN EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COUPLED WITH A VORT APPROACHING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE ABOUT HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS LI. THE RAIN WILL DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SW TO NE WITH ABOUT A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE OVERCAST...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY THIS EVE FOR SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL WAVE. DIURNAL TEMP
RANGES WILL BE SMALL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD
OVER AND NE FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE RAIN WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY. GENERALLY THOUGH LOOKING AT LOW RAIN CHANCES BY
AFTERNOON WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PASSING WELL TO THE
EAST AND ONLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH A EVEN A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

ONCE AGAIN...DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE SMALL...WITH HIGHS TUE
IN THE 50S...WITH LOWS TUE NIGHT ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER. THIS
WILL EQUATE TO WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THE REGARDING CUTOFF LOW THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY TRACKS SE TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO
SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE COAST ON SATURDAY AS A NEW NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS ON SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THERE IS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES EXIST IN ANY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
DEVELOPS ON A STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE
DEPICTED WITH THE LATEST MODELS WHICH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH THE
DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HAVE ALSO ELECTED TO REMAIN PERSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GENERALLY CHANCE POPS. TIMING ENERGY
WITHING THE CUTOFF LOW REMAINS DIFFICULT. IT WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE
WASH OUT...BUT PERIODS OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME. THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE SIGNALING THAT FRIDAY MAY BE
THE DAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THIS IS WHEN THE CUTOFF LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NE TOWARDS THE AREA AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SHOW A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...POPS INCREASE BACK TO CHANCE.

AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...BUT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS STILL DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES COULD COME CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRES SLOWLY APPROACHES NY AIRSPACE TONIGHT...AND WILL PASS SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

MVFR/IFR FORECAST WITH CIGS GENERALLY 700-1200 FT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 500 FT THIS EVENING...AND VSBYS WILL DROP AS
WELL AS FOG DEVELOPS.

RAIN DEVELOPS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL IMPACT
KNYC/KISP. VSBYS WILL DROP TO 1SM...AND CIGS WILL BE 500 FT OR
LESS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. CONDS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS...BCMG LGT/VRB THIS EVENING. E-NE WINDS
THEN INCREASE TO 5-10 KT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS AROUND 1000 FT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS AROUND 1000 FT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN
RAIN/FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SEAS AROUND 5 FT LATE TUE AFT/EARLY EVE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE
OF AN SCA. NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUE
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ON ALL COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO WINDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OCEAN SEAS MAY COME
CLOSE TO 5 FT AT TIMES WITH A PERSISTENT SE SWELL...MAINLY ON THE
WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO AN INCH IS FORECAST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
FALL ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WITH THE LOWER END BEING
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MINOR
NUISANCE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 021750
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
150 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COMPLEX...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS HAVE EXITED TO THE NE WITH THE PASSING OF A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT STILL WELL TO
THE SW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ACROSS NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT LATE THIS AFT/EARLY
THIS EVE WITH AN APPROACHING SFC TROF.

IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE COULD OCCUR WITH FORECASTED MID LEVEL DRYING ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY
ABOUT 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STALLED
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE.
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AS A RESULT...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING AND
FOCUSED PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...BETTER LIFT WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. RAIN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...TAPERING TO A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN SLOWLY MOVE THE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE AFTER THAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A SPREAD IN DIRECTION
AND SPEED...WITH THE GFS/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE IT
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MOVES IT TOWARDS THE NE.
ALL BRING THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO AN END BY
SATURDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE N IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE
THE REGION GETS INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. SO HAVE
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...WHERE
THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DUE TO DIFFICULTIES ALL MODELS HAVE WITH TIMING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LULL OF MULTIPLE HOURS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO
SPECIFY WHEN THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...IF IT
INDEED HAPPENS.

FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED.
HIGHS SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
PASSES TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR
BOTH PERIODS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE ALSO BASED
ON THE SUPER BLEND...AND SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRES SLOWLY APPROACHES NY AIRSPACE TONIGHT...AND WILL PASS
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

IFR FORECAST. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...RESULTING
IN MVFR CONDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL COVER THIS WITH
TEMPO GROUPS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY EXPECTING CIGS 700-1200 FT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 500 FT THIS EVENING...AND VSBYS WILL DROP AS
WELL AS FOG DEVELOPS.

RAIN DEVELOPS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL IMPACT
KNYC/KISP. VSBYS WILL DROP TO 1SM...AND CIGS WILL BE 500 FT OR
LESS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. CONDS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS...BCMG LGT/VRB THIS EVENING. E-NE WINDS
THEN INCREASE TO 5-10 KT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS AROUND 1000 FT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS AROUND 1000 FT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF IFR CONDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN
RAIN/FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS COULD COME CLOSE TO 5
FT DURING TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP SEAS AT 4 FT.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND.
HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT SE SWELL COULD BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES
INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO INCH EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...THE CITY...AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. NO
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. IN
GENERAL...AMOUNTS EACH DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY
1/4 INCH OR LESS. AS A RESULT...LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT/DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 021659
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1259 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COMPLEX...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS HAVE EXITED TO THE NE WITH THE PASSING OF A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT STILL WELL TO
THE SW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ACROSS NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT LATE THIS AFT/EARLY
THIS EVE WITH AN APPROACHING SFC TROF.

IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE COULD OCCUR WITH FORECASTED MID LEVEL DRYING ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY
ABOUT 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STALLED
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE.
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AS A RESULT...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING AND
FOCUSED PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...BETTER LIFT WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. RAIN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...TAPERING TO A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN SLOWLY MOVE THE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE AFTER THAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A SPREAD IN DIRECTION
AND SPEED...WITH THE GFS/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE IT
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MOVES IT TOWARDS THE NE.
ALL BRING THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO AN END BY
SATURDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE N IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE
THE REGION GETS INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. SO HAVE
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...WHERE
THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DUE TO DIFFICULTIES ALL MODELS HAVE WITH TIMING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LULL OF MULTIPLE HOURS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO
SPECIFY WHEN THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...IF IT
INDEED HAPPENS.

FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED.
HIGHS SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
PASSES TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR
BOTH PERIODS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE ALSO BASED
ON THE SUPER BLEND...AND SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY IFR CIGS...GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

CONFIDENCE LOW ON WIND FORECAST. GRADIENT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH
FOR VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS...BCMG SE 5-10 KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY
RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO
IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS COULD COME CLOSE TO 5
FT DURING TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP SEAS AT 4 FT.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND.
HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT SE SWELL COULD BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES
INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO INCH EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...THE CITY...AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. NO
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. IN
GENERAL...AMOUNTS EACH DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY
1/4 INCH OR LESS. AS A RESULT...LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT/DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 021659
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1259 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COMPLEX...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS HAVE EXITED TO THE NE WITH THE PASSING OF A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT STILL WELL TO
THE SW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ACROSS NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT LATE THIS AFT/EARLY
THIS EVE WITH AN APPROACHING SFC TROF.

IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE COULD OCCUR WITH FORECASTED MID LEVEL DRYING ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY
ABOUT 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STALLED
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE.
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AS A RESULT...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING AND
FOCUSED PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...BETTER LIFT WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. RAIN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...TAPERING TO A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN SLOWLY MOVE THE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE AFTER THAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A SPREAD IN DIRECTION
AND SPEED...WITH THE GFS/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE IT
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MOVES IT TOWARDS THE NE.
ALL BRING THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO AN END BY
SATURDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE N IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE
THE REGION GETS INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. SO HAVE
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...WHERE
THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DUE TO DIFFICULTIES ALL MODELS HAVE WITH TIMING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LULL OF MULTIPLE HOURS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO
SPECIFY WHEN THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...IF IT
INDEED HAPPENS.

FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED.
HIGHS SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
PASSES TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR
BOTH PERIODS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE ALSO BASED
ON THE SUPER BLEND...AND SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY IFR CIGS...GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

CONFIDENCE LOW ON WIND FORECAST. GRADIENT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH
FOR VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS...BCMG SE 5-10 KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY
RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO
IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS COULD COME CLOSE TO 5
FT DURING TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP SEAS AT 4 FT.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND.
HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT SE SWELL COULD BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES
INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO INCH EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...THE CITY...AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. NO
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. IN
GENERAL...AMOUNTS EACH DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY
1/4 INCH OR LESS. AS A RESULT...LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT/DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 021603
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1203 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COMPLEX...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS BEING PRECEDED BY AN
AREA OF CONVECTION...IMPACTING MAINLY NORTHERN POTIONS OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTERIOR SW CT. HRRR SHOWS SOME SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING A N-S LINE...MAINLY EAST OF NYC THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR. FOR
THE AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGING ALOFT AND THE NEXT SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT STILL WELL TO
THE SW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECASTED
MID LEVEL DRYING ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY ALMOST 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STALLED
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE.
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AS A RESULT...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING AND
FOCUSED PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...BETTER LIFT WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. RAIN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...TAPERING TO A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN SLOWLY MOVE THE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE AFTER THAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A SPREAD IN DIRECTION
AND SPEED...WITH THE GFS/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE IT
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MOVES IT TOWARDS THE NE.
ALL BRING THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO AN END BY
SATURDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE N IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE
THE REGION GETS INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. SO HAVE
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...WHERE
THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DUE TO DIFFICULTIES ALL MODELS HAVE WITH TIMING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LULL OF MULTIPLE HOURS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO
SPECIFY WHEN THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...IF IT
INDEED HAPPENS.

FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED.
HIGHS SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
PASSES TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR
BOTH PERIODS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE ALSO BASED
ON THE SUPER BLEND...AND SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY IFR CIGS...GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

CONFIDENCE LOW ON WIND FORECAST. GRADIENT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH
FOR VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS...BCMG SE 5-10 KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY
RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO
IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SEAS ARE NOW
BELOW 5 FT AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS WITH A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND
FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

SUB-SCA CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS COULD COME CLOSE TO 5
FT DURING TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP SEAS AT 4 FT.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND.
HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT SE SWELL COULD BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES
INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO INCH EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...THE CITY...AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. NO
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. IN
GENERAL...AMOUNTS EACH DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY
1/4 INCH OR LESS. AS A RESULT...LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT/DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 021420
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1020 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COMPLEX...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS BEING PRECEDED BY AN
AREA OF CONVECTION...IMPACTING MAINLY NORTHERN POTIONS OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTERIOR SW CT. HRRR SHOWS SOME SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING A N-S LINE...MAINLY EAST OF NYC THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR. FOR
THE AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGING ALOFT AND THE NEXT SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT STILL WELL TO
THE SW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECASTED
MID LEVEL DRYING ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY ALMOST 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STALLED
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE.
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AS A RESULT...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING AND
FOCUSED PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...BETTER LIFT WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. RAIN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...TAPERING TO A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN SLOWLY MOVE THE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE AFTER THAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A SPREAD IN DIRECTION
AND SPEED...WITH THE GFS/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE IT
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MOVES IT TOWARDS THE NE.
ALL BRING THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO AN END BY
SATURDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE N IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE
THE REGION GETS INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. SO HAVE
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...WHERE
THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DUE TO DIFFICULTIES ALL MODELS HAVE WITH TIMING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LULL OF MULTIPLE HOURS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO
SPECIFY WHEN THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...IF IT
INDEED HAPPENS.

FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED.
HIGHS SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
PASSES TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR
BOTH PERIODS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE ALSO BASED
ON THE SUPER BLEND...AND SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT DEPARTS TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...THEN ANOTHER
LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY E/NE AOB 10 KT THIS
MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR CONDS DURING THE AFTN. SEVERAL
PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR...ALTHOUGH
TIMING REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AND COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF IN THE
TAFS. BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH 14Z TO 16Z W TERMINALS
AND 15Z TO 18Z E TERMINALS.

WIND FORECAST THIS AFTN AND EVE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE. IFR OR
LOWER CONDS SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING COULD BE
SEVERAL HOURS OFF DEPENDING ON WHAT OCCURS THIS AFTN.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDS MAY IMPROVE TO IFR EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. LOW CHC OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY
RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO
IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SEAS ARE NOW
BELOW 5 FT AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS WITH A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND
FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

SUB-SCA CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS COULD COME CLOSE TO 5
FT DURING TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP SEAS AT 4 FT.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND.
HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT SE SWELL COULD BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES
INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO INCH EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...THE CITY...AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. NO
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. IN
GENERAL...AMOUNTS EACH DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY
1/4 INCH OR LESS. AS A RESULT...LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT/DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 021340
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
940 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COMPLEX...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOKING AT ONGOING ISOLATED THUNDER OVER N CENTRAL PA...AND WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES FORECAST TO FALL TO -2 TO 2 BY 15Z AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE DAY...HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

BEFORE THEN...HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE TO DEAL WITH
THROUGH AROUND 14Z.

APPEARS BULK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS OVER NC/NE PA MISSES US TO THE
N...SO WATCHING AREA ALONG PA/MD BORDER WHICH RADAR AND HRRR/RAP
TIME INTO FAR W ZONES 14-15Z. UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR/RAP HOURLY
POPS AND SWITCHED OVER TO AREAL COVERAGE WORDING WITH SHOWERS FOR
PREDOMINATE P-TYPE. GIVEN FORECAST LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY BY
AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED CAPES OF 300-750 J/KG ON MOST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHOWALTER INDICES...FEEL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...EVEN WITHOUT ANY
THUNDER.

IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECASTED MID LEVEL
DRYING ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STALLED
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE.
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AS A RESULT...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING AND
FOCUSED PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...BETTER LIFT WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. RAIN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...TAPERING TO A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN SLOWLY MOVE THE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE AFTER THAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A SPREAD IN DIRECTION
AND SPEED...WITH THE GFS/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE IT
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MOVES IT TOWARDS THE NE.
ALL BRING THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO AN END BY
SATURDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE N IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE
THE REGION GETS INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. SO HAVE
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...WHERE
THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DUE TO DIFFICULTIES ALL MODELS HAVE WITH TIMING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LULL OF MULTIPLE HOURS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO
SPECIFY WHEN THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...IF IT
INDEED HAPPENS.

FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED.
HIGHS SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
PASSES TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR
BOTH PERIODS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE ALSO BASED
ON THE SUPER BLEND...AND SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT DEPARTS TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...THEN ANOTHER
LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY E/NE AOB 10 KT THIS
MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR CONDS DURING THE AFTN. SEVERAL
PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR...ALTHOUGH
TIMING REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AND COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF IN THE
TAFS. BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH 14Z TO 16Z W TERMINALS
AND 15Z TO 18Z E TERMINALS.

WIND FORECAST THIS AFTN AND EVE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE. IFR OR
LOWER CONDS SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING COULD BE
SEVERAL HOURS OFF DEPENDING ON WHAT OCCURS THIS AFTN.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDS MAY IMPROVE TO IFR EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. LOW CHC OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY
RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO
IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

SEAS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 5 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. MIGHT BE ABLE TO
DROP SCA BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION AT NOON AS WINDS AND SEA SWELL
SUBSIDE. SUB-SCA CONDS OTHERWISE TODAY AND TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS COULD
COME CLOSE TO 5 FT DURING TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP SEAS AT 4
FT.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND.
HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT SE SWELL COULD BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES
INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO INCH EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...THE CITY...AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. NO
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. IN
GENERAL...AMOUNTS EACH DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY
1/4 INCH OR LESS. AS A RESULT...LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 021340
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
940 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COMPLEX...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOKING AT ONGOING ISOLATED THUNDER OVER N CENTRAL PA...AND WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES FORECAST TO FALL TO -2 TO 2 BY 15Z AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE DAY...HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

BEFORE THEN...HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE TO DEAL WITH
THROUGH AROUND 14Z.

APPEARS BULK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS OVER NC/NE PA MISSES US TO THE
N...SO WATCHING AREA ALONG PA/MD BORDER WHICH RADAR AND HRRR/RAP
TIME INTO FAR W ZONES 14-15Z. UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR/RAP HOURLY
POPS AND SWITCHED OVER TO AREAL COVERAGE WORDING WITH SHOWERS FOR
PREDOMINATE P-TYPE. GIVEN FORECAST LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY BY
AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED CAPES OF 300-750 J/KG ON MOST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHOWALTER INDICES...FEEL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...EVEN WITHOUT ANY
THUNDER.

IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECASTED MID LEVEL
DRYING ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STALLED
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE.
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AS A RESULT...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING AND
FOCUSED PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...BETTER LIFT WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. RAIN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...TAPERING TO A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN SLOWLY MOVE THE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE AFTER THAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A SPREAD IN DIRECTION
AND SPEED...WITH THE GFS/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE IT
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MOVES IT TOWARDS THE NE.
ALL BRING THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO AN END BY
SATURDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE N IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE
THE REGION GETS INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. SO HAVE
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...WHERE
THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DUE TO DIFFICULTIES ALL MODELS HAVE WITH TIMING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LULL OF MULTIPLE HOURS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO
SPECIFY WHEN THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...IF IT
INDEED HAPPENS.

FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED.
HIGHS SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
PASSES TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR
BOTH PERIODS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE ALSO BASED
ON THE SUPER BLEND...AND SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT DEPARTS TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...THEN ANOTHER
LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY E/NE AOB 10 KT THIS
MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR CONDS DURING THE AFTN. SEVERAL
PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR...ALTHOUGH
TIMING REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AND COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF IN THE
TAFS. BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH 14Z TO 16Z W TERMINALS
AND 15Z TO 18Z E TERMINALS.

WIND FORECAST THIS AFTN AND EVE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE. IFR OR
LOWER CONDS SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING COULD BE
SEVERAL HOURS OFF DEPENDING ON WHAT OCCURS THIS AFTN.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDS MAY IMPROVE TO IFR EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. LOW CHC OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY
RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO
IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

SEAS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 5 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. MIGHT BE ABLE TO
DROP SCA BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION AT NOON AS WINDS AND SEA SWELL
SUBSIDE. SUB-SCA CONDS OTHERWISE TODAY AND TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS COULD
COME CLOSE TO 5 FT DURING TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP SEAS AT 4
FT.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND.
HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT SE SWELL COULD BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES
INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO INCH EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...THE CITY...AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. NO
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. IN
GENERAL...AMOUNTS EACH DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY
1/4 INCH OR LESS. AS A RESULT...LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 021158
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
758 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COMPLEX...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOKING AT ONGOING ISOLATED THUNDER OVER N CENTRAL PA...AND WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES FORECAST TO FALL TO -2 TO 2 BY 15Z AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE DAY...HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

BEFORE THEN...HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE TO DEAL WITH
THROUGH AROUND 14Z.

APPEARS BULK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS OVER NC/NE PA MISSES US TO THE
N...SO WATCHING AREA ALONG PA/MD BORDER WHICH RADAR AND HRRR/RAP
TIME INTO FAR W ZONES 14-15Z. UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR/RAP HOURLY
POPS AND SWITCHED OVER TO AREAL COVERAGE WORDING WITH SHOWERS FOR
PREDOMINATE P-TYPE. GIVEN FORECAST LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY BY
AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED CAPES OF 300-750 J/KG ON MOST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHOWALTER INDICES...FEEL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...EVEN WITHOUT ANY
THUNDER.

IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECASTED MID LEVEL
DRYING ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STALLED
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE.
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AS A RESULT...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING AND
FOCUSED PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...BETTER LIFT WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. RAIN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...TAPERING TO A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN SLOWLY MOVE THE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE AFTER THAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A SPREAD IN DIRECTION
AND SPEED...WITH THE GFS/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE IT
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MOVES IT TOWARDS THE NE.
ALL BRING THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO AN END BY
SATURDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE N IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE
THE REGION GETS INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. SO HAVE
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...WHERE
THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DUE TO DIFFICULTIES ALL MODELS HAVE WITH TIMING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LULL OF MULTIPLE HOURS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO
SPECIFY WHEN THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...IF IT
INDEED HAPPENS.

FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED.
HIGHS SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
PASSES TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR
BOTH PERIODS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE ALSO BASED
ON THE SUPER BLEND...AND SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT DEPARTS TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...THEN ANOTHER
LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY E/NE AOB 10 KT THIS
MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR CONDS DURING THE AFTN. SEVERAL
PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR...ALTHOUGH
TIMING REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AND COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF IN THE
TAFS. BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH 14Z TO 16Z W TERMINALS
AND 15Z TO 18Z E TERMINALS.

WIND FORECAST THIS AFTN AND EVE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE. IFR OR
LOWER CONDS SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING COULD BE
SEVERAL HOURS OFF DEPENDING ON WHAT OCCURS THIS AFTN.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDS MAY IMPROVE TO IFR EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. LOW CHC OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY
RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO
IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

SEAS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 5 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. MIGHT BE ABLE TO
DROP SCA BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION AT NOON AS WINDS AND SEA SWELL
SUBSIDE. SUB-SCA CONDS OTHERWISE TODAY AND TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS COULD
COME CLOSE TO 5 FT DURING TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP SEAS AT 4
FT.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND.
HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT SE SWELL COULD BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES
INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO INCH EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...THE CITY...AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. NO
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. IN
GENERAL...AMOUNTS EACH DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY
1/4 INCH OR LESS. AS A RESULT...LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 021158
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
758 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COMPLEX...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOKING AT ONGOING ISOLATED THUNDER OVER N CENTRAL PA...AND WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES FORECAST TO FALL TO -2 TO 2 BY 15Z AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE DAY...HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

BEFORE THEN...HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE TO DEAL WITH
THROUGH AROUND 14Z.

APPEARS BULK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS OVER NC/NE PA MISSES US TO THE
N...SO WATCHING AREA ALONG PA/MD BORDER WHICH RADAR AND HRRR/RAP
TIME INTO FAR W ZONES 14-15Z. UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR/RAP HOURLY
POPS AND SWITCHED OVER TO AREAL COVERAGE WORDING WITH SHOWERS FOR
PREDOMINATE P-TYPE. GIVEN FORECAST LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY BY
AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED CAPES OF 300-750 J/KG ON MOST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHOWALTER INDICES...FEEL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...EVEN WITHOUT ANY
THUNDER.

IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECASTED MID LEVEL
DRYING ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STALLED
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE.
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AS A RESULT...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING AND
FOCUSED PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...BETTER LIFT WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. RAIN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...TAPERING TO A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN SLOWLY MOVE THE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE AFTER THAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A SPREAD IN DIRECTION
AND SPEED...WITH THE GFS/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE IT
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MOVES IT TOWARDS THE NE.
ALL BRING THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO AN END BY
SATURDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE N IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE
THE REGION GETS INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. SO HAVE
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...WHERE
THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DUE TO DIFFICULTIES ALL MODELS HAVE WITH TIMING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LULL OF MULTIPLE HOURS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO
SPECIFY WHEN THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...IF IT
INDEED HAPPENS.

FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED.
HIGHS SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
PASSES TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR
BOTH PERIODS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE ALSO BASED
ON THE SUPER BLEND...AND SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT DEPARTS TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...THEN ANOTHER
LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY E/NE AOB 10 KT THIS
MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR CONDS DURING THE AFTN. SEVERAL
PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR...ALTHOUGH
TIMING REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AND COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF IN THE
TAFS. BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH 14Z TO 16Z W TERMINALS
AND 15Z TO 18Z E TERMINALS.

WIND FORECAST THIS AFTN AND EVE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE. IFR OR
LOWER CONDS SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING COULD BE
SEVERAL HOURS OFF DEPENDING ON WHAT OCCURS THIS AFTN.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDS MAY IMPROVE TO IFR EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. LOW CHC OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY
RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO
IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

SEAS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 5 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. MIGHT BE ABLE TO
DROP SCA BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION AT NOON AS WINDS AND SEA SWELL
SUBSIDE. SUB-SCA CONDS OTHERWISE TODAY AND TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS COULD
COME CLOSE TO 5 FT DURING TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP SEAS AT 4
FT.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND.
HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT SE SWELL COULD BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES
INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO INCH EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...THE CITY...AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. NO
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. IN
GENERAL...AMOUNTS EACH DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY
1/4 INCH OR LESS. AS A RESULT...LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 020901
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
501 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COMPLEX...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROAD WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE WEST TODAY. AHEAD OF IT...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT HAVE 50% CHC ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND. WITH THE
LIFT TO THE EAST AND SOME NVA ALOFT BY MID-AFTERNOON...LOOKS LIKE
MOST OR ALL OF THE AFTERNOON COULD BE DRY FOR ALL SPOTS EXCEPT SE
CT WHERE RAINFALL COULD STILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR ANY THUNDER POTENTIAL...THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PRESENT...AND FORECAST MUCAPES SUGGEST THAT THIS
INSTABILITY REMAINS AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT THINKING IS THAT IT`S
TOO LOW OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN MID LEVELS DRY OUT.
STILL...HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STALLED
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE.
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AS A RESULT...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING AND
FOCUSED PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...BETTER LIFT WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. RAIN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...TAPERING TO A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN SLOWLY MOVE THE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE AFTER THAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A SPREAD IN DIRECTION
AND SPEED...WITH THE GFS/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE IT
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MOVES IT TOWARDS THE NE.
ALL BRING THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO AN END BY
SATURDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE N IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE
THE REGION GETS INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. SO HAVE
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...WHERE
THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DUE TO DIFFICULTIES ALL MODELS HAVE WITH TIMING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LULL OF MULTIPLE HOURS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO
SPECIFY WHEN THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...IF IT
INDEED HAPPENS.

FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED.
HIGHS SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
PASSES TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR
BOTH PERIODS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE ALSO BASED
ON THE SUPER BLEND...AND SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE EAST BY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER LOW
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY ENE 10 KT OR LESS
INTO THE MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS AND PATCHY DZ. CONDS MAY
IMPROVE A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK BUT STILL REMAIN IFR. SOME
QUESTIONS WHETHER RAIN CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN PA AND WEST VA
IMPACTS ALL TERMINALS AFT 12Z...BEST CHC N OF NYC...SO HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED TEMPOS S OF KHPN/KBDR/KGON AND WILL ADDRESS FURTHER IN
12Z TAFS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDS AND ALSO WINDS FOR MOST TERMINALS
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IFR OR LOWER CONDS SHOULD RETURN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF DEPENDING ON
WHAT OCCURS THIS AFTN.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN MAY NOT OCCUR WITH IFR
PREVAILING THE ENTIRE DAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN MAY NOT OCCUR WITH IFR
PREVAILING THE ENTIRE DAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN MAY NOT OCCUR WITH IFR
PREVAILING THE ENTIRE DAY.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN MAY NOT OCCUR WITH IFR
PREVAILING THE ENTIRE DAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDS MAY IMPROVE TO IFR EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. LOW CHC OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN MAY NOT OCCUR WITH IFR
PREVAILING THE ENTIRE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE
AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE
LOWERING AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 5 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. MIGHT BE ABLE TO
DROP SCA BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION AT NOON AS WINDS AND SEA SWELL
SUBSIDE. SUB-SCA CONDS OTHERWISE TODAY AND TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS COULD
COME CLOSE TO 5 FT DURING TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP SEAS AT 4
FT.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND.
HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT SE SWELL COULD BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES
INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO INCH EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...THE CITY...AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. NO
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. IN
GENERAL...AMOUNTS EACH DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY
1/4 INCH OR LESS. AS A RESULT...LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 020751
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
351 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COMPLEX...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROAD WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE WEST TODAY. AHEAD OF IT...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT HAVE 50% CHC ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND. WITH THE
LIFT TO THE EAST AND SOME NVA ALOFT BY MID-AFTERNOON...LOOKS LIKE
MOST OR ALL OF THE AFTERNOON COULD BE DRY FOR ALL SPOTS EXCEPT SE
CT WHERE RAINFALL COULD STILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR ANY THUNDER POTENTIAL...THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PRESENT...AND FORECAST MUCAPES SUGGEST THAT THIS
INSTABILITY REMAINS AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT THINKING IS THAT IT`S
TOO LOW OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN MID LEVELS DRY OUT.
STILL...HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STALLED
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE.
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AS A RESULT...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING AND
FOCUSED PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...BETTER LIFT WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. RAIN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...TAPERING TO A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN SLOWLY MOVE THE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE AFTER THAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A SPREAD IN DIRECTION
AND SPEED...WITH THE GFS/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE IT
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MOVES IT TOWARDS THE NE.
ALL BRING THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO AN END BY
SATURDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE N IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE
THE REGION GETS INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. SO HAVE
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...WHERE
THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DUE TO DIFFICULTIES ALL MODELS HAVE WITH TIMING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LULL OF MULTIPLE HOURS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO
SPECIFY WHEN THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...IF IT
INDEED HAPPENS.

FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED.
HIGHS SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
PASSES TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR
BOTH PERIODS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE ALSO BASED
ON THE SUPER BLEND...AND SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE EAST BY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER LOW
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY ENE 10 KT OR LESS
INTO THE MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS AND AREAS OF DZ. CONDS MAY
IMPROVE A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK BUT STILL REMAIN IFR. SOME
QUESTIONS WHETHER RAIN CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IMPACTS ALL
TERMINALS AFT 12Z...BEST CHC N OF NYC...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
TEMPOS S OF KHPN/KBDR/KGON AND WILL ADDRESS FURTHER IN SUBSEQUENT
TAFS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDS AND ALSO WINDS FOR MOST TERMINALS
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IFR OR LOWER CONDS SHOULD RETURN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF DEPENDING ON
WHAT OCCURS THIS AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE
AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE
LOWERING AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 5 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. MIGHT BE ABLE TO
DROP SCA BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION AT NOON AS WINDS AND SEA SWELL
SUBSIDE. SUB-SCA CONDS OTHERWISE TODAY AND TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS COULD
COME CLOSE TO 5 FT DURING TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP SEAS AT 4
FT.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND.
HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT SE SWELL COULD BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES
INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO INCH EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...THE CITY...AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. NO
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. IN
GENERAL...AMOUNTS EACH DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY
1/4 INCH OR LESS. AS A RESULT...LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 020618
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
218 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY THIS WEEK. A MORE
COMPLEX LOW WILL WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY WAS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD LATE
THIS EVENING WHILE ANOTHER WEAK LOW RIDES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. COOL MOIST FLOW IN PLACE WILL MAINTAIN
OVERCAST/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG...WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEARLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
LEAD TO A PD OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POP. MID LEVELS SHOULD DRY OUT MID TO LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT BKN/OVC LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN.

ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...
CONDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED...AND CAN EXPECT SOME LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.

UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDS ON TAP WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN TRACK TO THE SE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN MEANDER HERE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THIS
SCENARIO AND THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. HOWEVER...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITY OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SHOWERS AT ANY TIME.

BEFORE THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS...A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND ON TUESDAY ACTS A FOCUS FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND RIDE ALONG IT. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 115-125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TUESDAY MORNING. THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RAIN EXISTS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTHERN TIER FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE
BOUNDARY/WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SO
DID NOT WANT TO RAISE POPS ANY FURTHER THAN LIKELY. THE UPPER JET
CORE SHIFTS TO THE NE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH DECREASES
LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HAVE GENERALLY KEPT CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PREDICTABILITY WITH ANY SMALLER SCALE FEATURE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF IS RATHER LOW. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS
AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THEM AT THIS JUNCTURE IS
RATHER DIFFICULT AND SHOWS HIGH VARIABILITY RUN TO RUN IN THE
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ANY PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE CUTOFF AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE
COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
SUITE...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE SINCE THIS IS STILL SEVEN DAYS OUT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE EAST BY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER LOW
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY ENE 10 KT OR LESS
INTO THE MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS AND AREAS OF DZ. CONDS MAY
IMPROVE A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK BUT STILL REMAIN IFR. SOME
QUESTIONS WHETHER RAIN CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IMPACTS ALL
TERMINALS AFT 12Z...BEST CHC N OF NYC...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
TEMPOS S OF KHPN/KBDR/KGON AND WILL ADDRESS FURTHER IN SUBSEQUENT
TAFS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDS AND ALSO WINDS FOR MOST TERMINALS
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IFR OR LOWER CONDS SHOULD RETURN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF DEPENDING ON
WHAT OCCURS THIS AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE
AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE
LOWERING AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS ARE RUNNING 5-6 FT OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO
25 KT. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN WITH A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDS
MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEAK WITH
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SEAS MAY PUSH OVER 5 FT LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/4-1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUE.
NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL CONTINUE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING...LOCATION...AND AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 020618
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
218 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY THIS WEEK. A MORE
COMPLEX LOW WILL WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY WAS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD LATE
THIS EVENING WHILE ANOTHER WEAK LOW RIDES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. COOL MOIST FLOW IN PLACE WILL MAINTAIN
OVERCAST/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG...WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEARLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
LEAD TO A PD OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POP. MID LEVELS SHOULD DRY OUT MID TO LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT BKN/OVC LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN.

ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...
CONDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED...AND CAN EXPECT SOME LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.

UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDS ON TAP WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN TRACK TO THE SE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN MEANDER HERE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THIS
SCENARIO AND THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. HOWEVER...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITY OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SHOWERS AT ANY TIME.

BEFORE THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS...A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND ON TUESDAY ACTS A FOCUS FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND RIDE ALONG IT. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 115-125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TUESDAY MORNING. THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RAIN EXISTS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTHERN TIER FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE
BOUNDARY/WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SO
DID NOT WANT TO RAISE POPS ANY FURTHER THAN LIKELY. THE UPPER JET
CORE SHIFTS TO THE NE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH DECREASES
LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HAVE GENERALLY KEPT CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PREDICTABILITY WITH ANY SMALLER SCALE FEATURE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF IS RATHER LOW. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS
AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THEM AT THIS JUNCTURE IS
RATHER DIFFICULT AND SHOWS HIGH VARIABILITY RUN TO RUN IN THE
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ANY PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE CUTOFF AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE
COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
SUITE...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE SINCE THIS IS STILL SEVEN DAYS OUT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE EAST BY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER LOW
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY ENE 10 KT OR LESS
INTO THE MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS AND AREAS OF DZ. CONDS MAY
IMPROVE A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK BUT STILL REMAIN IFR. SOME
QUESTIONS WHETHER RAIN CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IMPACTS ALL
TERMINALS AFT 12Z...BEST CHC N OF NYC...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
TEMPOS S OF KHPN/KBDR/KGON AND WILL ADDRESS FURTHER IN SUBSEQUENT
TAFS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDS AND ALSO WINDS FOR MOST TERMINALS
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IFR OR LOWER CONDS SHOULD RETURN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF DEPENDING ON
WHAT OCCURS THIS AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE
AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE
LOWERING AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS ARE RUNNING 5-6 FT OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO
25 KT. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN WITH A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDS
MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEAK WITH
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SEAS MAY PUSH OVER 5 FT LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/4-1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUE.
NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL CONTINUE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING...LOCATION...AND AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 020333
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1133 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY THIS WEEK. A MORE
COMPLEX LOW WILL WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY WAS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD LATE
THIS EVENING WHILE ANOTHER WEAK LOW RIDES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. COOL MOIST FLOW IN PLACE WILL MAINTAIN
OVERCAST/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG...WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEARLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
LEAD TO A PD OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POP. MID LEVELS SHOULD DRY OUT MID TO LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT BKN/OVC LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN.

ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...
CONDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED...AND CAN EXPECT SOME LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.

UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDS ON TAP WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN TRACK TO THE SE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN MEANDER HERE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THIS
SCENARIO AND THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. HOWEVER...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITY OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SHOWERS AT ANY TIME.

BEFORE THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS...A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND ON TUESDAY ACTS A FOCUS FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND RIDE ALONG IT. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 115-125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TUESDAY MORNING. THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RAIN EXISTS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTHERN TIER FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE
BOUNDARY/WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SO
DID NOT WANT TO RAISE POPS ANY FURTHER THAN LIKELY. THE UPPER JET
CORE SHIFTS TO THE NE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH DECREASES
LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HAVE GENERALLY KEPT CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PREDICTABILITY WITH ANY SMALLER SCALE FEATURE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF IS RATHER LOW. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS
AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THEM AT THIS JUNCTURE IS
RATHER DIFFICULT AND SHOWS HIGH VARIABILITY RUN TO RUN IN THE
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ANY PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE CUTOFF AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE
COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
SUITE...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE SINCE THIS IS STILL SEVEN DAYS OUT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON MON.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY ENE 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS. CONDS MAY IMPROVE A
LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK MON BUT STILL REMAIN IFR IN LIGHT RAIN.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDS AND ALSO WINDS FOR MOST TERMINALS
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDS SHOULD REDEVELOP AT NIGHT
AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW APPROACHES. EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CONDS
UNCERTAIN. MVFR CONDS MAY RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS ARE RUNNING 5-6 FT OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO
25 KT. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN WITH A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDS
MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEAK WITH
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SEAS MAY PUSH OVER 5 FT LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/4-1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUE.
NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL CONTINUE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING...LOCATION...AND AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MPS/DS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...GOODMAN/MPS/DS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MPS/DS





000
FXUS61 KOKX 020333
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1133 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY THIS WEEK. A MORE
COMPLEX LOW WILL WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY WAS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD LATE
THIS EVENING WHILE ANOTHER WEAK LOW RIDES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. COOL MOIST FLOW IN PLACE WILL MAINTAIN
OVERCAST/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG...WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEARLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
LEAD TO A PD OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POP. MID LEVELS SHOULD DRY OUT MID TO LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT BKN/OVC LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN.

ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...
CONDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED...AND CAN EXPECT SOME LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.

UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDS ON TAP WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN TRACK TO THE SE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN MEANDER HERE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THIS
SCENARIO AND THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. HOWEVER...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITY OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SHOWERS AT ANY TIME.

BEFORE THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS...A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND ON TUESDAY ACTS A FOCUS FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND RIDE ALONG IT. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 115-125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TUESDAY MORNING. THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RAIN EXISTS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTHERN TIER FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE
BOUNDARY/WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SO
DID NOT WANT TO RAISE POPS ANY FURTHER THAN LIKELY. THE UPPER JET
CORE SHIFTS TO THE NE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH DECREASES
LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HAVE GENERALLY KEPT CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PREDICTABILITY WITH ANY SMALLER SCALE FEATURE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF IS RATHER LOW. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS
AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THEM AT THIS JUNCTURE IS
RATHER DIFFICULT AND SHOWS HIGH VARIABILITY RUN TO RUN IN THE
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ANY PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE CUTOFF AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE
COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
SUITE...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE SINCE THIS IS STILL SEVEN DAYS OUT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON MON.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY ENE 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS. CONDS MAY IMPROVE A
LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK MON BUT STILL REMAIN IFR IN LIGHT RAIN.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDS AND ALSO WINDS FOR MOST TERMINALS
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDS SHOULD REDEVELOP AT NIGHT
AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW APPROACHES. EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CONDS
UNCERTAIN. MVFR CONDS MAY RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS ARE RUNNING 5-6 FT OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO
25 KT. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN WITH A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDS
MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEAK WITH
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SEAS MAY PUSH OVER 5 FT LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/4-1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUE.
NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL CONTINUE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING...LOCATION...AND AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MPS/DS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...GOODMAN/MPS/DS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MPS/DS





000
FXUS61 KOKX 020054
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
854 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY THIS WEEK. A MORE
COMPLEX LOW WILL WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 10 KFT CONTINUES TO DRY OUT THIS EVENING WITH
DEEPEST SATURATION OCCURRING IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH A COOL...MOIST NE FLOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS ALSO SHOW STEADIEST RAIN PUSHING TO THE EAST
WITH MOST OBSERVATIONS OF JUST LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW SPOTS WITH
SOME DRIZZLE. EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. POPS DECREASE TO JUST CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA AROUND 9PM.

LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH LOW LEVELS SATURATED.

WARM FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK
MONDAY...AND STEADY RAIN SHOULD BECOME LIKELY OVER NW ORANGE
COUNTY AT THAT TIME.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS LOW PRES OVER WESTERN NY APPROACHES...A SECONDARY LOW LOOKS TO
FORM OFF THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PASS SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. MEANWHILE...THE PARENT LOW WILL PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA. THINK BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER NW ZONES MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP FOR THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS...BUT BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL EITHER BE TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.

ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING...CONDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED...AND CAN EXPECT SOME
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.

UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDS ON TAP WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN TRACK TO THE SE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN MEANDER HERE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THIS
SCENARIO AND THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. HOWEVER...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITY OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SHOWERS AT ANY TIME.

BEFORE THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS...A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND ON TUESDAY ACTS A FOCUS FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND RIDE ALONG IT. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 115-125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TUESDAY MORNING. THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RAIN EXISTS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTHERN TIER FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE
BOUNDARY/WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SO
DID NOT WANT TO RAISE POPS ANY FURTHER THAN LIKELY. THE UPPER JET
CORE SHIFTS TO THE NE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH DECREASES
LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HAVE GENERALLY KEPT CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PREDICTABILITY WITH ANY SMALLER SCALE FEATURE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF IS RATHER LOW. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS
AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THEM AT THIS JUNCTURE IS
RATHER DIFFICULT AND SHOWS HIGH VARIABILITY RUN TO RUN IN THE
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ANY PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE CUTOFF AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE
COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
SUITE...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE SINCE THIS IS STILL SEVEN DAYS OUT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY ENE 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS. CONDS MAY IMPROVE A
LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK MON BUT STILL REMAIN IFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR CONDS AND ALSO WINDS FOR MOST TERMINALS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
MON AS ONE LOW DEPARTS AND ANOTHER APPROACHES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FCST PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDS SHOULD REDEVELOP AT NIGHT
AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW APPROACHES. EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CONDS
UNCERTAIN. MVFR CONDS MAY RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON COASTAL WATERS REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING.

SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN...AND A FEW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AND
THEN SEAS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CRITERIA. WITH A WEAK GRADIENT OVER
THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEAK WITH
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SEAS MAY PUSH OVER 5 FT LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/4-1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS FAR NW
ZONES. 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL CONTINUE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING...LOCATION...AND AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 020054
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
854 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY THIS WEEK. A MORE
COMPLEX LOW WILL WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 10 KFT CONTINUES TO DRY OUT THIS EVENING WITH
DEEPEST SATURATION OCCURRING IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH A COOL...MOIST NE FLOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS ALSO SHOW STEADIEST RAIN PUSHING TO THE EAST
WITH MOST OBSERVATIONS OF JUST LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW SPOTS WITH
SOME DRIZZLE. EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. POPS DECREASE TO JUST CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA AROUND 9PM.

LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH LOW LEVELS SATURATED.

WARM FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK
MONDAY...AND STEADY RAIN SHOULD BECOME LIKELY OVER NW ORANGE
COUNTY AT THAT TIME.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS LOW PRES OVER WESTERN NY APPROACHES...A SECONDARY LOW LOOKS TO
FORM OFF THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PASS SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. MEANWHILE...THE PARENT LOW WILL PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA. THINK BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER NW ZONES MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP FOR THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS...BUT BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL EITHER BE TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.

ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING...CONDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED...AND CAN EXPECT SOME
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.

UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDS ON TAP WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN TRACK TO THE SE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN MEANDER HERE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THIS
SCENARIO AND THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. HOWEVER...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITY OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SHOWERS AT ANY TIME.

BEFORE THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS...A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND ON TUESDAY ACTS A FOCUS FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND RIDE ALONG IT. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 115-125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TUESDAY MORNING. THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RAIN EXISTS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTHERN TIER FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE
BOUNDARY/WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SO
DID NOT WANT TO RAISE POPS ANY FURTHER THAN LIKELY. THE UPPER JET
CORE SHIFTS TO THE NE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH DECREASES
LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HAVE GENERALLY KEPT CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PREDICTABILITY WITH ANY SMALLER SCALE FEATURE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF IS RATHER LOW. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS
AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THEM AT THIS JUNCTURE IS
RATHER DIFFICULT AND SHOWS HIGH VARIABILITY RUN TO RUN IN THE
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ANY PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE CUTOFF AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE
COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
SUITE...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE SINCE THIS IS STILL SEVEN DAYS OUT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY ENE 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS. CONDS MAY IMPROVE A
LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK MON BUT STILL REMAIN IFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR CONDS AND ALSO WINDS FOR MOST TERMINALS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
MON AS ONE LOW DEPARTS AND ANOTHER APPROACHES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FCST PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDS SHOULD REDEVELOP AT NIGHT
AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW APPROACHES. EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CONDS
UNCERTAIN. MVFR CONDS MAY RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON COASTAL WATERS REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING.

SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN...AND A FEW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AND
THEN SEAS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CRITERIA. WITH A WEAK GRADIENT OVER
THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEAK WITH
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SEAS MAY PUSH OVER 5 FT LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/4-1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS FAR NW
ZONES. 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL CONTINUE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING...LOCATION...AND AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 012251
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
651 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. A MORE COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 10KFT CONTINUES TO DRY OUT THIS EVENING WITH
DEEPEST SATURATION OCCURRING IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH A COOL...MOIST NE FLOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS ALSO SHOW STEADIEST RAIN PUSHING TO THE EAST
WITH MOST OBSERVATIONS OF JUST LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW SPOTS WITH
SOME DRIZZLE. EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. POPS DECREASE TO JUST CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA AROUND 9PM.

LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH LOW LEVELS SATURATED.

WARM FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK
MONDAY...AND STEADY RAIN SHOULD BECOME LIKELY OVER NW ORANGE
COUNTY AT THAT TIME.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS LOW PRES OVER WESTERN NY APPROACHES...A SECONDARY LOW LOOKS TO
FORM OFF THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PASS SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. MEANWHILE...THE PARENT LOW WILL PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA. THINK BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER NW ZONES MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP FOR THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS...BUT BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL EITHER BE TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.

ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING...CONDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED...AND CAN EXPECT SOME
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.

UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS ON TAP WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN TRACK TO THE SE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN MEANDER HERE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THIS
SCENARIO AND THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. HOWEVER...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITY OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SHOWERS AT ANY TIME.

BEFORE THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS...A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND ON TUESDAY ACTS A FOCUS FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND RIDE ALONG IT. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 115-125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TUESDAY MORNING. THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RAIN EXISTS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTHERN TIER FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE
BOUNDARY/WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SO
DID NOT WANT TO RAISE POPS ANY FURTHER THAN LIKELY. THE UPPER JET
CORE SHIFTS TO THE NE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH DECREASES
LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HAVE GENERALLY KEPT CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PREDICTABILITY WITH ANY SMALLER SCALE FEATURE WITH THE UPPPER
LEVEL CUTOFF IS RATHER LOW. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY
CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THEM AT THIS
JUNCTURE IS RATHER DIFFICULT AND SHOWS HIGH VARIABILITY RUN TO RUN
IN THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ANY PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE CUTOFF AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT
OFF THE COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE SUITE...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE SINCE THIS IS STILL SEVEN
DAYS OUT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND REMAINS JUST SOUTH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES NEARBY OVERNIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING AS CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES LOWER. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS FORECAST.
AT TIMES IT WILL BE DRY.

LOW CLOUDS...IFR OR LOW END MVFR...CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE AS WELL.

WINDS FROM THE E/SE WILL BACK TO THE NE/E TONIGHT. THE WIND
FORECAST ON MONDAY REMAINS UNCERTAIN THUS LOWER CONFIDENCE...
DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT WINDS TO TURN TOWARD THE E/SE IN THE MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON...IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH END MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN VFR
WITH A PASSING SHOWER.
.MON NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN MORE RAIN LATE.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.TUE NIGHT-FRI...SUB-VFR AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/LOW
CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON COASTAL WATERS REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING.

SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN...AND A FEW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AND
THEN SEAS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CRITERIA. WITH A WEAK GRADIENT OVER
THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEAK WITH
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SEAS MAY PUSH OVER 5 FT LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/4-1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS FAR NW
ZONES. 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL CONTINUE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING...LOCATION...AND AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/DS
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MPS/DS
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DS





000
FXUS61 KOKX 011938
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
338 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. A MORE COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RAIN BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION AND PRECIP TAPERING
OFF...WILL REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER THIS EVENING. WILL TAPER POPS
DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
SATURATED AND LOW PRES TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH.

MOST MODELS INDICATING A LULL IN THE PRECIP SOMETIME LATE
TONIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. WITH ATMOSPHERE
SATURATED...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
IN THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS PATCHY FOG.

WARM FRONT NOSES INTO FAR NW ZONES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND RAIN
MAY BE LIKELY OVER NW ORANGE COUNTY BY THEN.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS LOW PRES OVER WESTERN NY APPROACHES...A SECONDARY LOW LOOKS TO
FORM OFF THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PASS SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. MEANWHILE...THE PARENT LOW WILL PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA. THINK BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER NW ZONES MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP FOR THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS...BUT BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL EITHER BE TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.

ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING...CONDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED...AND CAN EXPECT SOME
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.

UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS ON TAP WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN TRACK TO THE SE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN MEANDER HERE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THIS
SCENARIO AND THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. HOWEVER...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITY OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SHOWERS AT ANY TIME.

BEFORE THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS...A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND ON TUESDAY ACTS A FOCUS FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND RIDE ALONG IT. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 115-125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TUESDAY MORNING. THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RAIN EXISTS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTHERN TIER FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE
BOUNDARY/WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SO
DID NOT WANT TO RAISE POPS ANY FURTHER THAN LIKELY. THE UPPER JET
CORE SHIFTS TO THE NE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH DECREASES
LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HAVE GENERALLY KEPT CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PREDICTABILITY WITH ANY SMALLER SCALE FEATURE WITH THE UPPPER
LEVEL CUTOFF IS RATHER LOW. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY
CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THEM AT THIS
JUNCTURE IS RATHER DIFFICULT AND SHOWS HIGH VARIABILITY RUN TO RUN
IN THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ANY PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE CUTOFF AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT
OFF THE COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE SUITE...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE SINCE THIS IS STILL SEVEN
DAYS OUT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND REMAINS JUST SOUTH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES NEARBY OVERNIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING AS CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES LOWER. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS FORECAST.
AT TIMES IT WILL BE DRY.

LOW CLOUDS...IFR OR LOW END MVFR...CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE AS WELL.

WINDS FROM THE E/SE WILL BACK TO THE NE/E TONIGHT. THE WIND
FORECAST ON MONDAY REMAINS UNCERTAIN THUS LOWER CONFIDENCE...
DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT WINDS TO TURN TOWARD THE E/SE IN THE MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON...IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH END MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN VFR
WITH A PASSING SHOWER.
.MON NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN MORE RAIN LATE.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.TUE NIGHT-FRI...SUB-VFR AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/LOW
CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN...AND A FEW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AND
THEN SEAS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CRITERIA. WITH A WEAK GRADIENT OVER
THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEAK WITH
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SEAS MAY PUSH OVER 5 FT LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 1/4 INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...AND THEN AN
ADDITIONAL 1/4-1/2 INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS FAR NW
ZONES. 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL CONTINUE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING...LOCATION...AND AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/DS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MPS/DS
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DS





000
FXUS61 KOKX 011728
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
128 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY
NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THEN
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AS THERE ARE 2000-3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN CT.

WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING MANY TO DEVELOP.

HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA IN WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAINLY LAY S OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ON MONDAY...WHEN THERE IS NOW ENOUGH
SUPPORT IN THE VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS TO BELIEVE IT SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT IS NOT
CERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY DURING THE DAY THAN AT NIGHT...SO
HAVE INTRODUCED FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WHEN THERE ARE EXPECTED
LULLS IN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...SHOWALTER INDICES FOR THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO GENERALLY -2 TO 2.

ON THE WHOLE GENERALLY EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH LULLS OF MAINLY PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING...AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS
GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOTE...IF THE WARM FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA...THEN HIGHS COULD END UP 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS FROM
CENTRAL LONG ISLAND ON W-NW INTO NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM
950-925 HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OFF A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS
USED...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL
DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW BEING FORECAST...AS THE HANDLING OF THIS TYPE
OF FEATURE IS NOT THE GREATEST STRENGTH OF CURRENT NWP MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND REMAINS JUST SOUTH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES NEARBY TONIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE IS FORECAST. AT TIMES IT WILL BE DRY.

LOW CLOUDS...IFR OR LOW END MVFR...CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE AS WELL. IN FACT...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
THUNDER IN THE MORNING. TOO LOW THOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE
FORECASTS.

WINDS FROM THE E/SE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BACK TO THE NE/E TONIGHT.
THE WIND FORECAST ON MONDAY REMAIN UNCERTAIN...DEPENDING ON
EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT WINDS TO TURN TOWARD THE E/SE IN THE MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON...IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH END MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN VFR
IS POSSIBLE WITH A PASSING SHOWER.
.MON NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN MORE RAIN LATE.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.TUE NIGHT-FRI...SUB-VFR AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/LOW
CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SEAS UP TO RIGHT AROUND 5 FT. WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS PROBABLY
HOVER AROUND 5 FT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT DUE TO SWELL.
WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SCA ON THE OCEAN UNCHANGED...LASTING FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE OTHER WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN SOUND OR BAYS...BUT NOT WORTH CONSIDERATION OF A SCA.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT SEAS COULD CLIMB TO
5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AT TIMES DUE TO A SWELL. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. WHILE WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS TIME...SWELL MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 5 FT...PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
1/4-1/2 AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WOULD BE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LOCATION/TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 011728
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
128 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY
NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THEN
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AS THERE ARE 2000-3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN CT.

WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING MANY TO DEVELOP.

HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA IN WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAINLY LAY S OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ON MONDAY...WHEN THERE IS NOW ENOUGH
SUPPORT IN THE VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS TO BELIEVE IT SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT IS NOT
CERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY DURING THE DAY THAN AT NIGHT...SO
HAVE INTRODUCED FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WHEN THERE ARE EXPECTED
LULLS IN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...SHOWALTER INDICES FOR THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO GENERALLY -2 TO 2.

ON THE WHOLE GENERALLY EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH LULLS OF MAINLY PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING...AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS
GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOTE...IF THE WARM FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA...THEN HIGHS COULD END UP 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS FROM
CENTRAL LONG ISLAND ON W-NW INTO NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM
950-925 HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OFF A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS
USED...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL
DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW BEING FORECAST...AS THE HANDLING OF THIS TYPE
OF FEATURE IS NOT THE GREATEST STRENGTH OF CURRENT NWP MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND REMAINS JUST SOUTH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES NEARBY TONIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE IS FORECAST. AT TIMES IT WILL BE DRY.

LOW CLOUDS...IFR OR LOW END MVFR...CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE AS WELL. IN FACT...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
THUNDER IN THE MORNING. TOO LOW THOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE
FORECASTS.

WINDS FROM THE E/SE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BACK TO THE NE/E TONIGHT.
THE WIND FORECAST ON MONDAY REMAIN UNCERTAIN...DEPENDING ON
EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT WINDS TO TURN TOWARD THE E/SE IN THE MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON...IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH END MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN VFR
IS POSSIBLE WITH A PASSING SHOWER.
.MON NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN MORE RAIN LATE.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.TUE NIGHT-FRI...SUB-VFR AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/LOW
CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SEAS UP TO RIGHT AROUND 5 FT. WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS PROBABLY
HOVER AROUND 5 FT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT DUE TO SWELL.
WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SCA ON THE OCEAN UNCHANGED...LASTING FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE OTHER WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN SOUND OR BAYS...BUT NOT WORTH CONSIDERATION OF A SCA.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT SEAS COULD CLIMB TO
5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AT TIMES DUE TO A SWELL. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. WHILE WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS TIME...SWELL MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 5 FT...PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
1/4-1/2 AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WOULD BE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LOCATION/TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 011701
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
101 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY
NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THEN
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AS THERE ARE 2000-3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN CT.

WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING MANY TO DEVELOP.

HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA IN WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAINLY LAY S OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ON MONDAY...WHEN THERE IS NOW ENOUGH
SUPPORT IN THE VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS TO BELIEVE IT SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT IS NOT
CERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY DURING THE DAY THAN AT NIGHT...SO
HAVE INTRODUCED FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WHEN THERE ARE EXPECTED
LULLS IN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...SHOWALTER INDICES FOR THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO GENERALLY -2 TO 2.

ON THE WHOLE GENERALLY EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH LULLS OF MAINLY PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING...AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS
GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOTE...IF THE WARM FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA...THEN HIGHS COULD END UP 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS FROM
CENTRAL LONG ISLAND ON W-NW INTO NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM
950-925 HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OFF A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS
USED...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL
DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW BEING FORECAST...AS THE HANDLING OF THIS TYPE
OF FEATURE IS NOT THE GREATEST STRENGTH OF CURRENT NWP MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT.

LIGHT ESE WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AT MOST TERMINALS
AS THEY BACK TO THE EAST.

A FEW GUSTS 16-19 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS TO
START...EVENTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR AFTER ABOUT 18Z...FROM WEST TO
EAST.

RAIN BECOMES LIGHT AND SPOTTY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. FOG IN THE MORNING.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WED-THU...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SEAS UP TO RIGHT AROUND 5 FT. WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS PROBABLY
HOVER AROUND 5 FT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT DUE TO SWELL.
WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SCA ON THE OCEAN UNCHANGED...LASTING FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE OTHER WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN SOUND OR BAYS...BUT NOT WORTH CONSIDERATION OF A SCA.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT SEAS COULD CLIMB TO
5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AT TIMES DUE TO A SWELL. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. WHILE WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS TIME...SWELL MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 5 FT...PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
1/4-1/2 AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WOULD BE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LOCATION/TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 011701
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
101 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY
NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THEN
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AS THERE ARE 2000-3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN CT.

WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING MANY TO DEVELOP.

HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA IN WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAINLY LAY S OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ON MONDAY...WHEN THERE IS NOW ENOUGH
SUPPORT IN THE VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS TO BELIEVE IT SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT IS NOT
CERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY DURING THE DAY THAN AT NIGHT...SO
HAVE INTRODUCED FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WHEN THERE ARE EXPECTED
LULLS IN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...SHOWALTER INDICES FOR THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO GENERALLY -2 TO 2.

ON THE WHOLE GENERALLY EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH LULLS OF MAINLY PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING...AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS
GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOTE...IF THE WARM FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA...THEN HIGHS COULD END UP 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS FROM
CENTRAL LONG ISLAND ON W-NW INTO NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM
950-925 HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OFF A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS
USED...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL
DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW BEING FORECAST...AS THE HANDLING OF THIS TYPE
OF FEATURE IS NOT THE GREATEST STRENGTH OF CURRENT NWP MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT.

LIGHT ESE WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AT MOST TERMINALS
AS THEY BACK TO THE EAST.

A FEW GUSTS 16-19 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS TO
START...EVENTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR AFTER ABOUT 18Z...FROM WEST TO
EAST.

RAIN BECOMES LIGHT AND SPOTTY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. FOG IN THE MORNING.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WED-THU...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SEAS UP TO RIGHT AROUND 5 FT. WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS PROBABLY
HOVER AROUND 5 FT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT DUE TO SWELL.
WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SCA ON THE OCEAN UNCHANGED...LASTING FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE OTHER WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN SOUND OR BAYS...BUT NOT WORTH CONSIDERATION OF A SCA.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT SEAS COULD CLIMB TO
5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AT TIMES DUE TO A SWELL. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. WHILE WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS TIME...SWELL MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 5 FT...PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
1/4-1/2 AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WOULD BE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LOCATION/TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 011429
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1029 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY
NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THEN
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS
BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS.

PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
SHOWALTER INDICES FALL DOWN TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2 THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MAINLY THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ELEVATED STORMS.

HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA IN WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAINLY LAY S OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ON MONDAY...WHEN THERE IS NOW ENOUGH
SUPPORT IN THE VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS TO BELIEVE IT SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT IS NOT
CERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY DURING THE DAY THAN AT NIGHT...SO
HAVE INTRODUCED FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WHEN THERE ARE EXPECTED
LULLS IN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...SHOWALTER INDICES FOR THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO GENERALLY -2 TO 2.

ON THE WHOLE GENERALLY EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH LULLS OF MAINLY PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING...AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS
GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOTE...IF THE WARM FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA...THEN HIGHS COULD END UP 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS FROM
CENTRAL LONG ISLAND ON W-NW INTO NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM
950-925 HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OFF A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS
USED...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL
DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW BEING FORECAST...AS THE HANDLING OF THIS TYPE
OF FEATURE IS NOT THE GREATEST STRENGTH OF CURRENT NWP MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT.

LIGHT ESE WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AT MOST TERMINALS
AS THEY BACK TO THE EAST.

A FEW GUSTS 16-19 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS TO
START...EVENTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR AFTER ABOUT 18Z...FROM WEST TO
EAST.

RAIN BECOMES LIGHT AND SPOTTY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. FOG IN THE MORNING.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WED-THU...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SEAS UP TO RIGHT AROUND 5 FT. WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS PROBABLY
HOVER AROUND 5 FT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT DUE TO SWELL.
WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SCA ON THE OCEAN UNCHANGED...LASTING FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE OTHER WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN SOUND OR BAYS...BUT NOT WORTH CONSIDERATION OF A SCA.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT SEAS COULD CLIMB TO
5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AT TIMES DUE TO A SWELL. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. WHILE WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS TIME...SWELL MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 5 FT...PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
1/4-1/2 AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WOULD BE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LOCATION/TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 011129
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
729 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY
NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THEN
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE TODAY IN RESPONSE
TO OVER RUNNING/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. SHOWALTER INDICES FALL
DOWN TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2 THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SW 2/5 OF
THE CWA...SO HAVE ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY ELEVATED STORMS.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED FOR HIGHS FOR TODAY. DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE RAINFALL
AND ONSHORE FLOW...HIGHS SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA IN WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAINLY LAY S OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ON MONDAY...WHEN THERE IS NOW ENOUGH
SUPPORT IN THE VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS TO BELIEVE IT SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT IS NOT
CERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY DURING THE DAY THAN AT NIGHT...SO
HAVE INTRODUCED FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WHEN THERE ARE EXPECTED
LULLS IN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...SHOWALTER INDICES FOR THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO GENERALLY -2 TO 2.

ON THE WHOLE GENERALLY EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH LULLS OF MAINLY PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING...AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS
GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOTE...IF THE WARM FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA...THEN HIGHS COULD END UP 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS FROM
CENTRAL LONG ISLAND ON W-NW INTO NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM
950-925 HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OFF A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS
USED...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL
DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW BEING FORECAST...AS THE HANDLING OF THIS TYPE
OF FEATURE IS NOT THE GREATEST STRENGTH OF CURRENT NWP MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST DRIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

LIGHT SE WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS ESE THIS MORNING...THEN E THIS
AFTERNOON AS THEY SLOWLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AT MOST TERMINALS.
A FEW GUSTS 16-19 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN DEVELOPS FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING. VFR
CONDS TO START...EVENTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR AFTER ABOUT 18Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. FOG IN THE MORNING.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WED-THU...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SEAS UP TO RIGHT AROUND 5 FT. WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS PROBABLY
HOVER AROUND 5 FT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT DUE TO SWELL.
WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SCA ON THE OCEAN UNCHANGED...LASTING FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE OTHER WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN SOUND OR BAYS...BUT NOT WORTH CONSIDERATION OF A SCA.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT SEAS COULD CLIMB TO
5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AT TIMES DUE TO A SWELL. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. WHILE WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS TIME...SWELL MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 5 FT...PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
1/4-1/2 AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WOULD BE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LOCATION/TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 011032
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
632 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY
NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THEN
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE TODAY IN RESPONSE
TO OVER RUNNING/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. SHOWALTER INDICES FALL
DOWN TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2 THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SW 2/5 OF
THE CWA...SO HAVE ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY ELEVATED STORMS.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED FOR HIGHS FOR TODAY. DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE RAINFALL
AND ONSHORE FLOW...HIGHS SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA IN WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAINLY LAY S OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ON MONDAY...WHEN THERE IS NOW ENOUGH
SUPPORT IN THE VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS TO BELIEVE IT SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT IS NOT
CERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY DURING THE DAY THAN AT NIGHT...SO
HAVE INTRODUCED FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WHEN THERE ARE EXPECTED
LULLS IN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...SHOWALTER INDICES FOR THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO GENERALLY -2 TO 2.

ON THE WHOLE GENERALLY EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH LULLS OF MAINLY PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING...AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS
GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOTE...IF THE WARM FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA...THEN HIGHS COULD END UP 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS FROM
CENTRAL LONG ISLAND ON W-NW INTO NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM
950-925 HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OFF A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS
USED...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL
DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW BEING FORECAST...AS THE HANDLING OF THIS TYPE
OF FEATURE IS NOT THE GREATEST STRENGTH OF CURRENT NWP MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST DRIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

LIGHT SE WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BACK TOWARDS ESE THIS
MORNING...THEN E THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY SLOWLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KT AT MOST TERMINALS. A FEW GUSTS 15-18 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST-EAST BETWEEN 11Z-14Z ALTHOUGH A SHOWER
OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THEN. VFR CONDS TO START...EVENTUALLY
LOWERING TO IFR AFTER ABOUT 18Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON NIGHT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS. E WINDS... BECOMING
NW MONDAY AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL
TERMINALS.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WED-THU...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SEAS THERE TO RIGHT AROUND 5 FT.
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
PROBABLY HOVER AROUND 5 FT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT DUE TO
SWELL. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SCA ON THE OCEAN UNCHANGED...LASTING
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE OTHER WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN SOUND OR BAYS...BUT NOT WORTH CONSIDERATION OF A SCA.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT SEAS COULD CLIMB TO
5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AT TIMES DUE TO A SWELL. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. WHILE WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS TIME...SWELL MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 5 FT...PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
1/4-1/2 AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WOULD BE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LOCATION/TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 010807 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
407 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY
NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THEN
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE TODAY IN RESPONSE
TO OVER RUNNING/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. SHOWALTER INDICES FALL
DOWN TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2 THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SW 2/5 OF
THE CWA...SO HAVE ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY ELEVATED STORMS.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED FOR HIGHS FOR TODAY. DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE RAINFALL
AND ONSHORE FLOW...HIGHS SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA IN WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAINLY LAY S OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ON MONDAY...WHEN THERE IS NOW ENOUGH
SUPPORT IN THE VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS TO BELIEVE IT SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT IS NOT
CERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY DURING THE DAY THAN AT NIGHT...SO
HAVE INTRODUCED FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WHEN THERE ARE EXPECTED
LULLS IN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...SHOWALTER INDICES FOR THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO GENERALLY -2 TO 2.

ON THE WHOLE GENERALLY EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH LULLS OF MAINLY PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING...AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS
GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOTE...IF THE WARM FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA...THEN HIGHS COULD END UP 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS FROM
CENTRAL LONG ISLAND ON W-NW INTO NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM
950-925 HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OFF A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS
USED...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL
DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW BEING FORECAST...AS THE HANDLING OF THIS TYPE
OF FEATURE IS NOT THE GREATEST STRENGTH OF CURRENT NWP MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST DRIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

LIGHT SE WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BACK TOWARDS ESE THIS
MORNING...THEN E THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY SLOWLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KT AT MOST TERMINALS. A FEW GUSTS 15-18 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST-EAST BETWEEN 11Z-14Z ALTHOUGH A SHOWER
OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THEN. VFR CONDS TO START...EVENTUALLY
LOWERING TO IFR AFTER ABOUT 18Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON NIGHT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS. E WINDS... BECOMING
NW MONDAY AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL
TERMINALS.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WED-THU...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SEAS RIGHT AROUND 5 FT. WINDS DIMINISH
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS PROBABLY HOVER AROUND 5 FT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE NIGHT DUE TO SWELL. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SCA ON THE OCEAN
UNCHANGED...LASTING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE OTHER WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN SOUND OR BAYS...BUT NOT WORTH CONSIDERATION OF A SCA.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT SEAS COULD CLIMB TO
5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AT TIMES DUE TO A SWELL. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. WHILE WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS TIME...SWELL MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 5 FT...PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
1/4-1/2 AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WOULD BE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LOCATION/TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 010754
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
354 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY
NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THEN
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE TODAY IN RESPONSE
TO OVER RUNNING/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED FOR HIGHS FOR TODAY. DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE RAINFALL
AND ONSHORE FLOW...HIGHS SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA IN WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAINLY LAY S OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ON MONDAY...WHEN THERE IS NOW ENOUGH
SUPPORT IN THE VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS TO BELIEVE IT SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT IS NOT
CERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY DURING THE DAY THAN AT NIGHT...SO
HAVE INTRODUCED FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WHEN THERE ARE EXPECTED
LULLS IN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...SHOWALTER INDICES FOR THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO GENERALLY -2 TO 2.

ON THE WHOLE GENERALLY EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH LULLS OF MAINLY PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING...AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS
GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOTE...IF THE WARM FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA...THEN HIGHS COULD END UP 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS FROM
CENTRAL LONG ISLAND ON W-NW INTO NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM
950-925 HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OFF A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS
USED...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL
DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW BEING FORECAST...AS THE HANDLING OF THIS TYPE
OF FEATURE IS NOT THE GREATEST STRENGTH OF CURRENT NWP MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST DRIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

LIGHT SE WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BACK TOWARDS ESE THIS
MORNING...THEN E THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY SLOWLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KT AT MOST TERMINALS. A FEW GUSTS 15-18 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST-EAST BETWEEN 11Z-14Z ALTHOUGH A SHOWER
OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THEN. VFR CONDS TO START...EVENTUALLY
LOWERING TO IFR AFTER ABOUT 18Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON NIGHT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS. E WINDS... BECOMING
NW MONDAY AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL
TERMINALS.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WED-THU...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SEAS RIGHT AROUND 5 FT. WINDS DIMINISH
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS PROBABLY HOVER AROUND 5 FT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE NIGHT DUE TO SWELL. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SCA ON THE OCEAN
UNCHANGED...LASTING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE OTHER WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN SOUND OR BAYS...BUT NOT WORTH CONSIDERATION OF A SCA.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT SEAS COULD CLIMB TO
5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AT TIMES DUE TO A SWELL. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. WHILE WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS TIME...SWELL MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 5 FT...PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
1/4-1/2 AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WOULD BE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LOCATION/TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 010524
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
124 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS THROUGH ON
MONDAY... WITH ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND LIFT ABOVE H8 HPA
WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAIN APPROACHING FAR WESTERN LOCATIONS
TOWARD MORNING.

LIGHT SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM 35-40
OVER MOST OF SRN CT AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND...TO THE
MID 40S IN AND AROUND NYC METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL RESULT IN RAIN
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT AS
IT MOVES EAST...AND SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE WEST AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AS PARENT LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN SECTIONS
LATE AT NIGHT.

DEEPEST MOISTURE NOTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS IN LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THAT TIME...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO LOWER
COVERAGE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

THEN...SHORTWAVE AND APPROACH OF UPPER JET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD RESULT IN RETURN TO RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY VIA PROFILES/SHOWALTER FCST
INDICES.

WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY WINDS...TEMPS REMAIN QUITE COOL...WELL
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGH/S SUNDAY TO REMAIN IN THE 50S...WITH
POSSIBLE 40S IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...FAIRLY POTENT H5 SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING WITH A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. A
WARM FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON WHETHER OR NOT THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY NORTH
OF THE AREA. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
MONDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND WITH
STRONGEST LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY DRYING OUT AS RIDGING
BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE BEFORE
DAYS END AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE EASTERN STATES AS DEEP
RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NOAM CONTINUES TO SEND PIECES OF ENERGY
DIVING DOWN INTO THE MEAN TROUGHING IN THE EAST. THIS IS WHERE THE
FORECAST HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES. MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAVE COME INTO PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS NEXT
SHORTWAVE ACTING ON THE STALLED FRONT TO FORM ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN APPROX 130 KT UPPER JET. HAVE
INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A QUICK
SHOT OF SOME RAIN AS THE LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER IF FUTURE GUIDANCE
BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT ON THIS SCENARIO. POPS DECREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD.

LOW CONFIDENCE  FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EVENTUALLY BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE TIME FRAME SIGNALED BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR BEST CHANCE AT PRECIP. CUTOFF LOWS HAVE A LOWER THAN
AVERAGE FORECAST SKILL...SO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
SMALLER SCALE DETAILS.

TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO AVERAGE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY WHEN RAINFALL
OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST DRIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

SE WINDS LESS THAN 10KT OVERNIGHT WILL BACK SE-E THIS MORNING...AND
INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 10 KT AT MOST TERMINALS. A FEW GUSTS 15-18 KT
POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST-EAST BETWEEN 11Z-14Z. IFR CONDS
EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 18Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON NIGHT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS. E WINDS...
BECOMING NW MONDAY AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WED-THU...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND
A WARM FRONT. SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS LOOK LESS LIKELY FOR THE
SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS.

WINDS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WATERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
HOWEVER REMAIN RATHER ROUGH.

SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NE OF THE WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY HELPING TO BRING
SCA CONDITIONS AT LEAST ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 1/2-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS61 KOKX 010331
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1131 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
ON SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY...
WITH ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STILL MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE CWA. WAA DOES NOT COMMENCE
IN EARNEST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...AND LIFT ABOVE H8 HPA WARM FRONT
WILL RESULT IN RAIN APPROACHING FAR WESTERN LOCATIONS TOWARD
MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM 35-40
OVER MOST OF SRN CT AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND...TO THE
MID 40S IN AND AROUND NYC METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL RESULT IN RAIN
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT AS
IT MOVES EAST...AND SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE WEST AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AS PARENT LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN SECTIONS
LATE AT NIGHT.

DEEPEST MOISTURE NOTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS IN LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THAT TIME...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO LOWER
COVERAGE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

THEN...SHORTWAVE AND APPROACH OF UPPER JET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD RESULT IN RETURN TO RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY VIA PROFILES/SHOWALTER FCST
INDICES.

WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY WINDS...TEMPS REMAIN QUITE COOL...WELL
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGH/S SUNDAY TO REMAIN IN THE 50S...WITH
POSSIBLE 40S IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...FAIRLY POTENT H5 SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING WITH A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. A
WARM FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON WHETHER OR NOT THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY NORTH
OF THE AREA. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
MONDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND WITH
STRONGEST LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY DRYING OUT AS RIDGING
BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE BEFORE
DAYS END AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE EASTERN STATES AS DEEP
RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NOAM CONTINUES TO SEND PIECES OF ENERGY
DIVING DOWN INTO THE MEAN TROUGHING IN THE EAST. THIS IS WHERE THE
FORECAST HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES. MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAVE COME INTO PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS NEXT
SHORTWAVE ACTING ON THE STALLED FRONT TO FORM ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN APPROX 130 KT UPPER JET. HAVE
INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A QUICK
SHOT OF SOME RAIN AS THE LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER IF FUTURE GUIDANCE
BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT ON THIS SCENARIO. POPS DECREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD.

LOW CONFIDENCE  FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EVENTUALLY BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE TIME FRAME SIGNALED BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR BEST CHANCE AT PRECIP. CUTOFF LOWS HAVE A LOWER THAN
AVERAGE FORECAST SKILL...SO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
SMALLER SCALE DETAILS.

TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO AVERAGE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY WHEN RAINFALL
OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. LOW PRES
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

S-SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT WILL BACK SE-E SUNDAY
MORNING...AND INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 10 KT AT MOST TERMINALS. A FEW
GUSTS 15-18 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST-EAST BETWEEN 11Z-14Z SUNDAY MORNING.
IFR CONDS EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON NIGHT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS. E WINDS...
BECOMING NW MONDAY AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WED-THU...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND
A WARM FRONT. SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS LOOK LESS LIKELY FOR THE
SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS.

WINDS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WATERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
HOWEVER REMAIN RATHER ROUGH.

SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NE OF THE WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY HELPING TO BRING
SCA CONDITIONS AT LEAST ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 1/2-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/PW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 010331
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1131 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
ON SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY...
WITH ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STILL MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE CWA. WAA DOES NOT COMMENCE
IN EARNEST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...AND LIFT ABOVE H8 HPA WARM FRONT
WILL RESULT IN RAIN APPROACHING FAR WESTERN LOCATIONS TOWARD
MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM 35-40
OVER MOST OF SRN CT AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND...TO THE
MID 40S IN AND AROUND NYC METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL RESULT IN RAIN
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT AS
IT MOVES EAST...AND SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE WEST AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AS PARENT LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN SECTIONS
LATE AT NIGHT.

DEEPEST MOISTURE NOTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS IN LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THAT TIME...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO LOWER
COVERAGE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

THEN...SHORTWAVE AND APPROACH OF UPPER JET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD RESULT IN RETURN TO RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY VIA PROFILES/SHOWALTER FCST
INDICES.

WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY WINDS...TEMPS REMAIN QUITE COOL...WELL
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGH/S SUNDAY TO REMAIN IN THE 50S...WITH
POSSIBLE 40S IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...FAIRLY POTENT H5 SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING WITH A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. A
WARM FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON WHETHER OR NOT THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY NORTH
OF THE AREA. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
MONDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND WITH
STRONGEST LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY DRYING OUT AS RIDGING
BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE BEFORE
DAYS END AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE EASTERN STATES AS DEEP
RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NOAM CONTINUES TO SEND PIECES OF ENERGY
DIVING DOWN INTO THE MEAN TROUGHING IN THE EAST. THIS IS WHERE THE
FORECAST HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES. MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAVE COME INTO PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS NEXT
SHORTWAVE ACTING ON THE STALLED FRONT TO FORM ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN APPROX 130 KT UPPER JET. HAVE
INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A QUICK
SHOT OF SOME RAIN AS THE LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER IF FUTURE GUIDANCE
BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT ON THIS SCENARIO. POPS DECREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD.

LOW CONFIDENCE  FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EVENTUALLY BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE TIME FRAME SIGNALED BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR BEST CHANCE AT PRECIP. CUTOFF LOWS HAVE A LOWER THAN
AVERAGE FORECAST SKILL...SO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
SMALLER SCALE DETAILS.

TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO AVERAGE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY WHEN RAINFALL
OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. LOW PRES
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

S-SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT WILL BACK SE-E SUNDAY
MORNING...AND INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 10 KT AT MOST TERMINALS. A FEW
GUSTS 15-18 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST-EAST BETWEEN 11Z-14Z SUNDAY MORNING.
IFR CONDS EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON NIGHT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS. E WINDS...
BECOMING NW MONDAY AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WED-THU...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND
A WARM FRONT. SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS LOOK LESS LIKELY FOR THE
SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS.

WINDS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WATERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
HOWEVER REMAIN RATHER ROUGH.

SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NE OF THE WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY HELPING TO BRING
SCA CONDITIONS AT LEAST ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 1/2-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/PW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 302316
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
716 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
HOURLY TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND SKY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND FLATTENS LATE TONIGHT. SFC HIGH
MOVES EAST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WAA DOES NOT
COMMENCE IN EARNEST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...AND LIFT ABOVE H8 HPA
WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAIN APPROACHING FAR WESTERN LOCATIONS
TOWARD MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS TO THE MID 40S IN AND
AROUND NYC METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL RESULT IN RAIN
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT AS
IT MOVES EAST...AND SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE WEST AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AS PARENT LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN SECTIONS
LATE AT NIGHT.

DEEPEST MOISTURE NOTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS IN LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THAT TIME...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO LOWER
COVERAGE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

THEN...SHORTWAVE AND APPROACH OF UPPER JET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD RESULT IN RETURN TO RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY VIA PROFILES/SHOWALTER FCST
INDICES.

WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY WINDS...TEMPS REMAIN QUITE COOL...WELL
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGH/S SUNDAY TO REMAIN IN THE 50S...WITH
POSSIBLE 40S IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...FAIRLY POTENT H5 SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING WITH A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. A
WARM FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON WHETHER OR NOT THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY NORTH
OF THE AREA. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
MONDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND WITH
STRONGEST LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY DRYING OUT AS RIDGING
BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE BEFORE
DAYS END AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE EASTERN STATES AS DEEP
RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NOAM CONTINUES TO SEND PIECES OF ENERGY
DIVING DOWN INTO THE MEAN TROUGHING IN THE EAST. THIS IS WHERE THE
FORECAST HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES. MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAVE COME INTO PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS NEXT
SHORTWAVE ACTING ON THE STALLED FRONT TO FORM ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN APPROX 130 KT UPPER JET. HAVE
INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A QUICK
SHOT OF SOME RAIN AS THE LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER IF FUTURE GUIDANCE
BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT ON THIS SCENARIO. POPS DECREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD.

LOW CONFIDENCE  FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EVENTUALLY BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE TIME FRAME SIGNALED BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR BEST CHANCE AT PRECIP. CUTOFF LOWS HAVE A LOWER THAN
AVERAGE FORECAST SKILL...SO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
SMALLER SCALE DETAILS.

TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO AVERAGE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY WHEN RAINFALL
OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. LOW PRES
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

S-SE WINDS 8-12 KT BEHIND SEA BREEZES. AT INLAND TERMINALS AWAY FROM
SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES...WINDS WILL BE LGT/VRB.

WINDS BECOME LGT/VRB THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO THE E-SE SUNDAY
MORNING AT 5-10 KT.

VFR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. -RA DEVELOPS SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CONDS
DO NOT FALL TO MVFR UNTIL 14-16Z. RA DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
CONDS FALL TO IFR...MAINLY AFT 18Z SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...IFR CONDS IN PERIODS OF RA. E
WINDS...BECOMING NW MONDAY AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN RA IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER IN
-SHRA/FOG/STATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5 FT. THE OVERALL TREND SINCE THIS
AFTERNOON HAS BEEN DOWN SO HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA THIS EVENING.
HAVE NON OCEAN WATERS REMAIN TRANQUIL...LIGHT WINDS AND 1 FT OR
LESS SEAS/WAVES THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS THEN PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
AND WARM FRONT. HAVE ISSUED AN SCA BEGINNING NOON SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS LOOK LESS LIKELY FOR THE
LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE BAYS.

WINDS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WATERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
HOWEVER REMAIN RATHER ROUGH.

SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NE OF THE WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY HELPING TO BRING
SCA CONDITIONS AT LEAST ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 1/2-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 301936
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
336 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND FLATTENS LATE TONIGHT. SFC HIGH
MOVES EAST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WAA DOES NOT
COMMENCE IN EARNEST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...AND LIFT ABOVE H8 HPA
WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAIN APPROACHING FAR WESTERN LOCATIONS
TOWARD MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS TO THE MID 40S IN AND
AROUND NYC METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL RESULT IN RAIN
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT AS
IT MOVES EAST...AND SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE WEST AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AS PARENT LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN SECTIONS
LATE AT NIGHT.

DEEPEST MOISTURE NOTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS IN LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THAT TIME...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO LOWER
COVERAGE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

THEN...SHORTWAVE AND APPROACH OF UPPER JET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD RESULT IN RETURN TO RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY VIA PROFILES/SHOWALTER FCST
INDICES.

WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY WINDS...TEMPS REMAIN QUITE COOL...WELL
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGH/S SUNDAY TO REMAIN IN THE 50S...WITH
POSSIBLE 40S IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...FAIRLY POTENT H5 SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING WITH A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. A
WARM FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON WHETHER OR NOT THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY NORTH
OF THE AREA. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
MONDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND WITH
STRONGEST LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY DRYING OUT AS RIDGING
BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE BEFORE
DAYS END AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE EASTERN STATES AS DEEP
RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NOAM CONTINUES TO SEND PIECES OF ENERGY
DIVING DOWN INTO THE MEAN TROUGHING IN THE EAST. THIS IS WHERE THE
FORECAST HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES. MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAVE COME INTO PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS NEXT
SHORTWAVE ACTING ON THE STALLED FRONT TO FORM ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN APPROX 130 KT UPPER JET. HAVE
INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A QUICK
SHOT OF SOME RAIN AS THE LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER IF FUTURE GUIDANCE
BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT ON THIS SCENARIO. POPS DECREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD.

LOW CONFIDENCE  FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EVENTUALLY BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE TIME FRAME SIGNALED BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR BEST CHANCE AT PRECIP. CUTOFF LOWS HAVE A LOWER THAN
AVERAGE FORECAST SKILL...SO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
SMALLER SCALE DETAILS.

TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO AVERAGE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY WHEN RAINFALL
OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. LOW PRES
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

S-SE WINDS 8-12 KT BEHIND SEA BREEZES. AT INLAND TERMINALS AWAY FROM
SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES...WINDS WILL BE LGT/VRB.

WINDS BECOME LGT/VRB THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO THE E-SE SUNDAY
MORNING AT 5-10 KT.

VFR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. -RA DEVELOPS SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CONDS
DO NOT FALL TO MVFR UNTIL 14-16Z. RA DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
CONDS FALL TO IFR...MAINLY AFT 18Z SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...IFR CONDS IN PERIODS OF RA. E
WINDS...BECOMING NW MONDAY AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN RA IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER IN
-SHRA/FOG/STATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
PESKY OCEAN SEAS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 5 FEET DUE TO SWELL.
HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA ONCE AGAIN INTO THE EVENING. NON OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN TRANQUIL...LIGHT WINDS AND 1 FT OR LESS SEAS/WAVES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS THEN PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
AND WARM FRONT. IT LOOKS LIKE SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN. LESS LIKELY FOR THE LONG ISLAND SOUND.

WINDS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WATERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
HOWEVER REMAIN RATHER ROUGH.

SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NE OF THE WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY HELPING TO BRING
SCA CONDITIONS AT LEAST ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 1/2-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

AROUND A QUARTER OF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 301735
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
135 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY...STALLING OUT TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING CLOUDS HAVE ERODED AS RIDGE BUILDS. HOWEVER...SC
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND GENERALLY EXPECT SCT TO BKN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE
COAST...AND MID 60S INTERIOR. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AT COASTAL AREAS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...HOW FAST IT DOES SO WILL DETERMINE HOW FAST RAIN MOVES
INTO THE TRI-STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINDFUL THAT THE GFS HAS A BIAS
OF BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER ECMWF/NAM. KEPT FAR
EASTERN AREAS DRY...AND LIMITED LIKELY POPS TO FAR WESTERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

00Z ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH DOES NOT DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK THE LOW S
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE CMC DOES THIS...IT JUST TRACKS THE LOW
TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. THE 00Z
ECMWF IS ALSO THE ONLY MODEL TO NOT HAVE A FRONT MOVE FAR ENOUGH S
MONDAY NIGHT TO PRECLUDE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT. THIS IS BECAUSE IT IS FARTHER N
THAN OTHER MODELS WITH A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA AS THEY TRANSIT THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY. THE 00Z CMC TAKES THE FRONT ABOUT AS FAR S AS THE
NON 00Z-ECMWF MODELS...HOWEVER IT HAS A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT
DID NOT INCLUDE THE 00Z ECMWF OR CMC-GLOBAL IN THE BLEND OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER DID USE THE 12Z/29 ECMWF
AS IT WAS MORE CONSISTENT WITH REMAINDER OF 00Z MODEL SUITE.

AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE. ALSO WITH THE REGION
PROGGED TO HAVE SHOWALTERS OF -2 TO 2 FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND TO BE IN A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ON MONDAY...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
BE OF AN ELEVATED NATURE.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/12Z ECS GUIDANCE...00Z NAM
AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF 12Z ECS/00Z
MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF MIX DOWN FROM 975-900 HPA...00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...AND A MIXTURE OF 00Z MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS GUIDANCE.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT...SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. LOWS
WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/12Z ECE/ECM GUIDANCE.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A 700-500 HPA
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY. IN A SWITCH FROM THE 12Z RUNS...THE 00Z ECMWF NOW
ENDS UP WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE N BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE GFS HAS IT TO OUR S. THE REASONS DEAL WITH DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING A CUTOFF LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING DOWN ITS SW FLANK.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY LIMITED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...THEN POPS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (THIS IS THEN GENERAL TIME
FRAME WHEN REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION THE MODELS INDICATED THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN ALL SOLUTIONS) TO LOW END
CHANCE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS AMPLIFIED BY THE MODELS
FORECASTING CUTOFF LOWS...WHICH IS AN ITEM THEY ALL HAVE A LOWER
THAN AVERAGE SKILL AT FORECASTING.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED. FOR NOW
FORECASTING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. LOW PRES
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

VFR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES WILL MOVE THROUGH COASTAL
TERMINALS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE S AT 8-12 KT.

WINDS BECOME LGT/VRB THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO THE E-SE SUNDAY
MORNING AT 5-10 KT.

-RA DEVELOPS SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CONDS DO NOT FALL TO MVFR UNTIL
14-16Z. RA DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONDS FALL TO
IFR...MAINLY AFT 18Z SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...IFR CONDS IN PERIODS OF RA. E
WINDS...BECOMING NW MONDAY AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN RA IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER IN
-SHRA/FOG/STATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 5 FEET. HAVE EXTENDED THE
SCA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...22Z. NON OCEAN WATERS REMAIN
TRANQUIL...LIGHT WINDS AND 1 FT OR LESS SEAS/WAVES.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS TO 10
KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
THEN CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS THEN PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM.

IT LOOKS LIKE SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT LEAST ON
THE OCEAN...AND MAYBE FOR THE SOUND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR 25KT
GUSTS ON THE SOUND AND PERHAPS FOR THE HARBOR AND BAYS ARRIVES
SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO A PORTION OF MONDAY NIGHT AS SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN MAINTAINS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

FROM AROUND 3/4-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS A LOW RISK OF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS FOR
AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT





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