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000
FXUS61 KOKX 060540
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1240 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY THEN PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASS TO THE NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO ADJUST TEMPS/DEW POINTS/SKY/ AND POP TO REFLECT
LATEST TRENDS. SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW AND ICE COVERED
ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS.

FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT UNDER THE NWS WEB PAGE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EAST TOWARD
THE AREA...NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
OF 0 TO 15 DEGREES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF AROUND 0 DEGREES
AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY. RECORD LOWS ARE LIKELY FOR MANY
OF OUR OFFICIAL CLIMATE STATIONS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
CURRENT RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 6.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 20 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...IN THE MID 20S AND 15-20 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL ON FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY POPS WILL BE CONFINED
TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF NYC.

ANOTHER WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
THIRD WAVE LATE MONDAY...HOWEVER THINKING THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS
WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

THE REGION IS THEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S
SATURDAY. A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BKN DECK AT 10-15 KFT EAST OF THE CITY
WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...AND SKC CONDS EXPECTED BY THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.

NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT UNTIL 08-10Z...THEN NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRB AFTER 20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 11 AM ON FRIDAY. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO FORECAST UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY AS WELL.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START
OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MARCH 6

EWR......12/2007
BDR......11/2007
NYC.......6/1872
LGA......14/2007
JFK......13/2007
ISP......12/2007

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC






000
FXUS61 KOKX 060540
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1240 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY THEN PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASS TO THE NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO ADJUST TEMPS/DEW POINTS/SKY/ AND POP TO REFLECT
LATEST TRENDS. SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW AND ICE COVERED
ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS.

FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT UNDER THE NWS WEB PAGE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EAST TOWARD
THE AREA...NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
OF 0 TO 15 DEGREES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF AROUND 0 DEGREES
AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY. RECORD LOWS ARE LIKELY FOR MANY
OF OUR OFFICIAL CLIMATE STATIONS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
CURRENT RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 6.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 20 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...IN THE MID 20S AND 15-20 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL ON FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY POPS WILL BE CONFINED
TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF NYC.

ANOTHER WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
THIRD WAVE LATE MONDAY...HOWEVER THINKING THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS
WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

THE REGION IS THEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S
SATURDAY. A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BKN DECK AT 10-15 KFT EAST OF THE CITY
WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...AND SKC CONDS EXPECTED BY THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.

NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT UNTIL 08-10Z...THEN NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRB AFTER 20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 11 AM ON FRIDAY. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO FORECAST UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY AS WELL.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START
OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MARCH 6

EWR......12/2007
BDR......11/2007
NYC.......6/1872
LGA......14/2007
JFK......13/2007
ISP......12/2007

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC






000
FXUS61 KOKX 060540
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1240 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY THEN PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASS TO THE NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO ADJUST TEMPS/DEW POINTS/SKY/ AND POP TO REFLECT
LATEST TRENDS. SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW AND ICE COVERED
ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS.

FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT UNDER THE NWS WEB PAGE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EAST TOWARD
THE AREA...NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
OF 0 TO 15 DEGREES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF AROUND 0 DEGREES
AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY. RECORD LOWS ARE LIKELY FOR MANY
OF OUR OFFICIAL CLIMATE STATIONS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
CURRENT RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 6.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 20 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...IN THE MID 20S AND 15-20 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL ON FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY POPS WILL BE CONFINED
TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF NYC.

ANOTHER WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
THIRD WAVE LATE MONDAY...HOWEVER THINKING THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS
WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

THE REGION IS THEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S
SATURDAY. A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BKN DECK AT 10-15 KFT EAST OF THE CITY
WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...AND SKC CONDS EXPECTED BY THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.

NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT UNTIL 08-10Z...THEN NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRB AFTER 20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 11 AM ON FRIDAY. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO FORECAST UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY AS WELL.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START
OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MARCH 6

EWR......12/2007
BDR......11/2007
NYC.......6/1872
LGA......14/2007
JFK......13/2007
ISP......12/2007

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC





000
FXUS61 KOKX 060540
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1240 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY THEN PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASS TO THE NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO ADJUST TEMPS/DEW POINTS/SKY/ AND POP TO REFLECT
LATEST TRENDS. SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW AND ICE COVERED
ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS.

FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT UNDER THE NWS WEB PAGE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EAST TOWARD
THE AREA...NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
OF 0 TO 15 DEGREES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF AROUND 0 DEGREES
AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY. RECORD LOWS ARE LIKELY FOR MANY
OF OUR OFFICIAL CLIMATE STATIONS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
CURRENT RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 6.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 20 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...IN THE MID 20S AND 15-20 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL ON FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY POPS WILL BE CONFINED
TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF NYC.

ANOTHER WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
THIRD WAVE LATE MONDAY...HOWEVER THINKING THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS
WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

THE REGION IS THEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S
SATURDAY. A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BKN DECK AT 10-15 KFT EAST OF THE CITY
WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...AND SKC CONDS EXPECTED BY THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.

NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT UNTIL 08-10Z...THEN NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRB AFTER 20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 11 AM ON FRIDAY. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO FORECAST UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY AS WELL.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START
OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MARCH 6

EWR......12/2007
BDR......11/2007
NYC.......6/1872
LGA......14/2007
JFK......13/2007
ISP......12/2007

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC





000
FXUS61 KOKX 060249
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
949 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY THEN PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASS TO THE NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO ADJUST TEMPS/DEW POINTS/SKY/ AND POP TO REFLECT
LATEST TRENDS. SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW AND ICE COVERED
ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS.

FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT UNDER THE NWS WEB PAGE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EAST TOWARD
THE AREA...NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
OF 0 TO 15 DEGREES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF AROUND 0 DEGREES
AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY. RECORD LOWS ARE LIKELY FOR MANY
OF OUR OFFICIAL CLIMATE STATIONS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
CURRENT RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 6.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 20 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...IN THE MID 20S AND 15-20 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL ON FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY POPS WILL BE CONFINED
TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF NYC.

ANOTHER WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
THIRD WAVE LATE MONDAY...HOWEVER THINKING THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS
WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

THE REGION IS THEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S
SATURDAY. A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW HAS ENDED...AND VFR CONDS NOW IN PLACE AND EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

N/NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO
5-10 KT LATE TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRB LATE FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 11 AM ON FRIDAY. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO FORECAST UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY AS WELL.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START
OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MARCH 6

EWR......12/2007
BDR......11/2007
NYC.......6/1872
LGA......14/2007
JFK......13/2007
ISP......12/2007

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 060249
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
949 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY THEN PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASS TO THE NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO ADJUST TEMPS/DEW POINTS/SKY/ AND POP TO REFLECT
LATEST TRENDS. SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW AND ICE COVERED
ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS.

FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT UNDER THE NWS WEB PAGE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EAST TOWARD
THE AREA...NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
OF 0 TO 15 DEGREES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF AROUND 0 DEGREES
AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY. RECORD LOWS ARE LIKELY FOR MANY
OF OUR OFFICIAL CLIMATE STATIONS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
CURRENT RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 6.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 20 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...IN THE MID 20S AND 15-20 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL ON FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY POPS WILL BE CONFINED
TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF NYC.

ANOTHER WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
THIRD WAVE LATE MONDAY...HOWEVER THINKING THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS
WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

THE REGION IS THEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S
SATURDAY. A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW HAS ENDED...AND VFR CONDS NOW IN PLACE AND EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

N/NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO
5-10 KT LATE TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRB LATE FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 11 AM ON FRIDAY. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO FORECAST UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY AS WELL.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START
OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MARCH 6

EWR......12/2007
BDR......11/2007
NYC.......6/1872
LGA......14/2007
JFK......13/2007
ISP......12/2007

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 060249
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
949 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY THEN PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASS TO THE NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO ADJUST TEMPS/DEW POINTS/SKY/ AND POP TO REFLECT
LATEST TRENDS. SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW AND ICE COVERED
ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS.

FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT UNDER THE NWS WEB PAGE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EAST TOWARD
THE AREA...NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
OF 0 TO 15 DEGREES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF AROUND 0 DEGREES
AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY. RECORD LOWS ARE LIKELY FOR MANY
OF OUR OFFICIAL CLIMATE STATIONS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
CURRENT RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 6.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 20 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...IN THE MID 20S AND 15-20 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL ON FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY POPS WILL BE CONFINED
TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF NYC.

ANOTHER WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
THIRD WAVE LATE MONDAY...HOWEVER THINKING THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS
WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

THE REGION IS THEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S
SATURDAY. A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW HAS ENDED...AND VFR CONDS NOW IN PLACE AND EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

N/NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO
5-10 KT LATE TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRB LATE FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 11 AM ON FRIDAY. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO FORECAST UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY AS WELL.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START
OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MARCH 6

EWR......12/2007
BDR......11/2007
NYC.......6/1872
LGA......14/2007
JFK......13/2007
ISP......12/2007

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...









000
FXUS61 KOKX 060249
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
949 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY THEN PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASS TO THE NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO ADJUST TEMPS/DEW POINTS/SKY/ AND POP TO REFLECT
LATEST TRENDS. SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW AND ICE COVERED
ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS.

FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT UNDER THE NWS WEB PAGE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EAST TOWARD
THE AREA...NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
OF 0 TO 15 DEGREES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF AROUND 0 DEGREES
AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY. RECORD LOWS ARE LIKELY FOR MANY
OF OUR OFFICIAL CLIMATE STATIONS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
CURRENT RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 6.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 20 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...IN THE MID 20S AND 15-20 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL ON FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY POPS WILL BE CONFINED
TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF NYC.

ANOTHER WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
THIRD WAVE LATE MONDAY...HOWEVER THINKING THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS
WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

THE REGION IS THEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S
SATURDAY. A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW HAS ENDED...AND VFR CONDS NOW IN PLACE AND EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

N/NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO
5-10 KT LATE TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRB LATE FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 11 AM ON FRIDAY. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO FORECAST UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY AS WELL.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START
OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MARCH 6

EWR......12/2007
BDR......11/2007
NYC.......6/1872
LGA......14/2007
JFK......13/2007
ISP......12/2007

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...









000
FXUS61 KOKX 060007
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
707 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS SEVERAL WEAK
IMPULSES PASS TO THE NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO KEEP POPS GOING FOR JUST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
FOR ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOWFALL. LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...WE WILL ALLOW THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AND WILL REPLACE WITH AN SPS.

EXPECT DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SNOW
AND ICE COVERED ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 20.

FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT UNDER THE NWS WEB PAGE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EAST TOWARD
THE AREA...NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
OF 0 TO 15 DEGREES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF AROUND 0 DEGREES
AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 20 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...IN THE MID 20S AND 15-20 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL ON FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY POPS WILL BE CONFINED
TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF NYC.

ANOTHER WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
THIRD WAVE LATE MONDAY...HOWEVER THINKING THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS
WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

THE REGION IS THEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S
SATURDAY. A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW IS WINDING DOWN...AND CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 00-02Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW UNTIL THEN WILL RESULT
IN IFR CONDS. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES A BAND EXTENDING FROM LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...THROUGH NORTHERN NJ...AND INTO SE PA...BUT OBS ARE
NOT INDICATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND.

ONCE SNOW ENDS...VFR.

N/NW WINDS 10-15 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT
LATE TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRB LATE FRIDAY.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 01Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 01Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 01Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 01Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 02Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 11 AM ON FRIDAY. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO FORECAST UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY AS WELL.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START
OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...BC/GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC
EQUIPMENT...GC









000
FXUS61 KOKX 060007
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
707 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS SEVERAL WEAK
IMPULSES PASS TO THE NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO KEEP POPS GOING FOR JUST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
FOR ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOWFALL. LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...WE WILL ALLOW THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AND WILL REPLACE WITH AN SPS.

EXPECT DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SNOW
AND ICE COVERED ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 20.

FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT UNDER THE NWS WEB PAGE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EAST TOWARD
THE AREA...NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
OF 0 TO 15 DEGREES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF AROUND 0 DEGREES
AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 20 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...IN THE MID 20S AND 15-20 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL ON FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY POPS WILL BE CONFINED
TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF NYC.

ANOTHER WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
THIRD WAVE LATE MONDAY...HOWEVER THINKING THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS
WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

THE REGION IS THEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S
SATURDAY. A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW IS WINDING DOWN...AND CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 00-02Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW UNTIL THEN WILL RESULT
IN IFR CONDS. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES A BAND EXTENDING FROM LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...THROUGH NORTHERN NJ...AND INTO SE PA...BUT OBS ARE
NOT INDICATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND.

ONCE SNOW ENDS...VFR.

N/NW WINDS 10-15 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT
LATE TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRB LATE FRIDAY.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 01Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 01Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 01Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 01Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 02Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 11 AM ON FRIDAY. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO FORECAST UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY AS WELL.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START
OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...BC/GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC
EQUIPMENT...GC








000
FXUS61 KOKX 060007
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
707 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS SEVERAL WEAK
IMPULSES PASS TO THE NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO KEEP POPS GOING FOR JUST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
FOR ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOWFALL. LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...WE WILL ALLOW THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AND WILL REPLACE WITH AN SPS.

EXPECT DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SNOW
AND ICE COVERED ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 20.

FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT UNDER THE NWS WEB PAGE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EAST TOWARD
THE AREA...NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
OF 0 TO 15 DEGREES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF AROUND 0 DEGREES
AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 20 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...IN THE MID 20S AND 15-20 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL ON FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY POPS WILL BE CONFINED
TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF NYC.

ANOTHER WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
THIRD WAVE LATE MONDAY...HOWEVER THINKING THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS
WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

THE REGION IS THEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S
SATURDAY. A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW IS WINDING DOWN...AND CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 00-02Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW UNTIL THEN WILL RESULT
IN IFR CONDS. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES A BAND EXTENDING FROM LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...THROUGH NORTHERN NJ...AND INTO SE PA...BUT OBS ARE
NOT INDICATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND.

ONCE SNOW ENDS...VFR.

N/NW WINDS 10-15 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT
LATE TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRB LATE FRIDAY.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 01Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 01Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 01Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 01Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 02Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 11 AM ON FRIDAY. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO FORECAST UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY AS WELL.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START
OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...BC/GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC
EQUIPMENT...GC









000
FXUS61 KOKX 060007
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
707 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS SEVERAL WEAK
IMPULSES PASS TO THE NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO KEEP POPS GOING FOR JUST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
FOR ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOWFALL. LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...WE WILL ALLOW THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AND WILL REPLACE WITH AN SPS.

EXPECT DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SNOW
AND ICE COVERED ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 20.

FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT UNDER THE NWS WEB PAGE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EAST TOWARD
THE AREA...NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
OF 0 TO 15 DEGREES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF AROUND 0 DEGREES
AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 20 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...IN THE MID 20S AND 15-20 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL ON FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY POPS WILL BE CONFINED
TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF NYC.

ANOTHER WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
THIRD WAVE LATE MONDAY...HOWEVER THINKING THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS
WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

THE REGION IS THEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S
SATURDAY. A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW IS WINDING DOWN...AND CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 00-02Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW UNTIL THEN WILL RESULT
IN IFR CONDS. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES A BAND EXTENDING FROM LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...THROUGH NORTHERN NJ...AND INTO SE PA...BUT OBS ARE
NOT INDICATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND.

ONCE SNOW ENDS...VFR.

N/NW WINDS 10-15 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT
LATE TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRB LATE FRIDAY.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 01Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 01Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 01Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 01Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 02Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 11 AM ON FRIDAY. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO FORECAST UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY AS WELL.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START
OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...BC/GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC
EQUIPMENT...GC








000
FXUS61 KOKX 052114
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
414 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS SEVERAL WEAK
IMPULSES PASS TO THE NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
BECAUSE HEAVY SNOW IS NO LONGER FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY...
WINTER STORM WARNINGS WERE REPLACED BY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.

DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 20.

BECAUSE ONLY FLURRIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS ORANGE...PUTNAM...NORTHERN
FAIRFIELD AND NORTHERN NEW HAVEN COUNTIES WHERE MUCH LESS SNOW
FELL...THE ADVISORIES WERE CANCELLED.

A FEW BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW REDUCING VSBY TO 1/2 MILE IS POSSIBLE WITH
UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW THRU 7 PM MAINLY ACROSS METRO NJ...NYC
AND LONG ISLAND.

FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT UNDER THE NWS WEB PAGE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UNTIL 10 PM...LIGHT SNOW WILL END ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AS THE
UPPER LVL TROUGH APPROACHES WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ADVECTING EAST
OF THE AREA.

AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT...AS AN ARCTIC HI PRES SYS BUILDS EAST TOWARD
THE AREA...NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
OF 0 TO 15 DEGREES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF AROUND 0 DEGREES
AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.

ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 20 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...IN THE MID 20S AND 15-20 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL ON FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY POPS WILL BE CONFINED
TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF NYC.

ANOTHER WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
THIRD WAVE LATE MONDAY...HOWEVER THINKING THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS
WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

THE REGION IS THEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S
SATURDAY. A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR DATA AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATE BACK EDGE OF SNOW
GRADUALLY CROSSING NYC TERMINALS ATTM HOWEVER PROGRESS HAS BEEN
SLOW. SNOW STARTING TO LIGHTEN UP AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
INCREASING DESPITE PERSISTENT SNOW BANDING ACROSS IMMEDIATE COASTAL
TAFS. SOME RADAR ENHANCEMENT STILL BACK ACROSS PA AND HRRR
GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS THROUGH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  STILL EXPECT
VFR TO RETURN AFTER 00Z BUT MAY BE DELAYED AN HOUR OR SO.

WINDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE W-NW AROUND 10 KT.

TOTAL RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
KISP...5-7 INCHES.
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KHPN/KBDR...3-5 INCHES.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDING DOWN IN NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AFT 01Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDING DOWN IN NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AFT 01Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDING DOWN IN NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AFT 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDING DOWN IN NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AFT 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDING DOWN IN NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AFT 00Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDING DOWN IN NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AFT 02Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI-TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 11 AM ON FRIDAY. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO FORECAST UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY AS WELL.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START
OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ007>012.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC
EQUIPMENT...GC








000
FXUS61 KOKX 052114
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
414 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS SEVERAL WEAK
IMPULSES PASS TO THE NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
BECAUSE HEAVY SNOW IS NO LONGER FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY...
WINTER STORM WARNINGS WERE REPLACED BY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.

DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 20.

BECAUSE ONLY FLURRIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS ORANGE...PUTNAM...NORTHERN
FAIRFIELD AND NORTHERN NEW HAVEN COUNTIES WHERE MUCH LESS SNOW
FELL...THE ADVISORIES WERE CANCELLED.

A FEW BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW REDUCING VSBY TO 1/2 MILE IS POSSIBLE WITH
UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW THRU 7 PM MAINLY ACROSS METRO NJ...NYC
AND LONG ISLAND.

FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT UNDER THE NWS WEB PAGE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UNTIL 10 PM...LIGHT SNOW WILL END ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AS THE
UPPER LVL TROUGH APPROACHES WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ADVECTING EAST
OF THE AREA.

AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT...AS AN ARCTIC HI PRES SYS BUILDS EAST TOWARD
THE AREA...NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
OF 0 TO 15 DEGREES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF AROUND 0 DEGREES
AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.

ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 20 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...IN THE MID 20S AND 15-20 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL ON FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY POPS WILL BE CONFINED
TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF NYC.

ANOTHER WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
THIRD WAVE LATE MONDAY...HOWEVER THINKING THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS
WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

THE REGION IS THEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S
SATURDAY. A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR DATA AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATE BACK EDGE OF SNOW
GRADUALLY CROSSING NYC TERMINALS ATTM HOWEVER PROGRESS HAS BEEN
SLOW. SNOW STARTING TO LIGHTEN UP AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
INCREASING DESPITE PERSISTENT SNOW BANDING ACROSS IMMEDIATE COASTAL
TAFS. SOME RADAR ENHANCEMENT STILL BACK ACROSS PA AND HRRR
GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS THROUGH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  STILL EXPECT
VFR TO RETURN AFTER 00Z BUT MAY BE DELAYED AN HOUR OR SO.

WINDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE W-NW AROUND 10 KT.

TOTAL RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
KISP...5-7 INCHES.
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KHPN/KBDR...3-5 INCHES.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDING DOWN IN NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AFT 01Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDING DOWN IN NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AFT 01Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDING DOWN IN NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AFT 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDING DOWN IN NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AFT 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDING DOWN IN NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AFT 00Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDING DOWN IN NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AFT 02Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI-TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 11 AM ON FRIDAY. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO FORECAST UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY AS WELL.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START
OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ007>012.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC
EQUIPMENT...GC









000
FXUS61 KOKX 051841
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
141 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASS TO THE
NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPGRADED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN
MIDDLESEX AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON COUNTIES IN CT BASED ON CURRENT SNOWFALL
OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM FORECAST TRENDS.

BACK EDGE OF HVY SNOW BAND IS MVG SE FROM ACROSS CENTRAL NJ NE ACROSS
SE CT...WITH HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PLUS.

AT 18Z/1 PM...5.5 INCHES AT CENTRAL PARK...5.0 INCHES HERE AT THE
NWS OFFICE WITH MORE THAN 4 INCHES AT JFK AND LGA AIRPORTS.

WE ARE ON TRACK FOR A WIDESPREAD 6-8 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA.

REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW CONTS ACROSS NW NJ WITH A LIGHTER BAND POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM 19Z-21Z.

WILL BE DROPPING ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WITH THE
NEXT FORECAST UPDATE AS DRY ARCTIC AIR CONTS TO FILTER SE ACROSS
THIS REGION WITH DEW POINTS ALREADY NEAR ZERO.

DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 20S CAUSING ICING
OF UNTREATED SURFACES.

FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT UNDER THE NWS WEB PAGE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY.

SNOW SHOULD END FROM NW TO SSE BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z...WITH FRIGID AND
DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC
METRO...ON GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND CHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND
ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SPLIT FLOW THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A FAST ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A BROAD TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL US THROUGH MEXICO. ZONAL
H5 FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT.

OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
40S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT...BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE AREA SAT AND MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT. DOWN SLOPING
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT
BEST LATE SAT NIGHT. THE NAM/GFS ARE INDICATING A WEAK LOW PRES
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. EC IS MUCH WEAKER WITH NO PCPN. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST
AS PCPN REMAINS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE N WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE
PRESENT.

FINAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH MON. GFS IS SLIGHTLY
MORE AMPLIFIED ALOFT WITH THE VORT MAX PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH PCPN DUE TO RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE S.
EC IS FURTHER N. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS.

SW-W FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS AT H5...ALTHOUGH LARGE DIFFERENCES
BECOME PREVALENT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GFS BECOMES MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED WED/THU WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BECOMING PICKED
UP IN THE FLOW AND PASSING NEAR THE AREA WED. EC IS MUCH FLATTER
WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.  REMAINING DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS
POSSIBLY UNTIL MID WEEK.

TEMPS WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FRI NIGHT
AND LOWER 30S SAT...BUT A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 30S FOR LOWS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. RADAR DATA AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE STRONGLY
SUGGEST LAST BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL CROSS NYC TERMINALS BETWEEN
18-21Z SO WE HAVE EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW BY AN ADDITIONAL
1-3 HOURS IN TAF. BASED ON THE LATEST DATA...BACK EDGE OF SNOW
SHOULD SWING THROUGH REGION BY 00Z AND EXPECT VFR TO RETURN AFTER
00Z. KSWF IS ALREADY NORTH OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW...SO MVFR TO VFR
IS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW AROUND 10-12 KT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

OVERALL...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH WINDS AND LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH
CATEGORICAL CHANGES WHICH COULD VARY A FEW HOURS WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

EXPECTED RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KHPN/KBDR...3-5 INCHES.
KSWF...1-2 INCHES.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI-TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
RUN 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS PREDOMINANT
TODAY.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS...POSSIBLY BECOMING MODERATE LATE TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AS WELL LATE TONIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/10 TO 7/10 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TODAY. THIS
WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE
START OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ011-
     012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ005>010.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ067>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...24/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 051841
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
141 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASS TO THE
NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPGRADED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN
MIDDLESEX AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON COUNTIES IN CT BASED ON CURRENT SNOWFALL
OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM FORECAST TRENDS.

BACK EDGE OF HVY SNOW BAND IS MVG SE FROM ACROSS CENTRAL NJ NE ACROSS
SE CT...WITH HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PLUS.

AT 18Z/1 PM...5.5 INCHES AT CENTRAL PARK...5.0 INCHES HERE AT THE
NWS OFFICE WITH MORE THAN 4 INCHES AT JFK AND LGA AIRPORTS.

WE ARE ON TRACK FOR A WIDESPREAD 6-8 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA.

REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW CONTS ACROSS NW NJ WITH A LIGHTER BAND POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM 19Z-21Z.

WILL BE DROPPING ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WITH THE
NEXT FORECAST UPDATE AS DRY ARCTIC AIR CONTS TO FILTER SE ACROSS
THIS REGION WITH DEW POINTS ALREADY NEAR ZERO.

DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 20S CAUSING ICING
OF UNTREATED SURFACES.

FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT UNDER THE NWS WEB PAGE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY.

SNOW SHOULD END FROM NW TO SSE BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z...WITH FRIGID AND
DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC
METRO...ON GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND CHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND
ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SPLIT FLOW THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A FAST ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A BROAD TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL US THROUGH MEXICO. ZONAL
H5 FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT.

OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
40S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT...BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE AREA SAT AND MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT. DOWN SLOPING
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT
BEST LATE SAT NIGHT. THE NAM/GFS ARE INDICATING A WEAK LOW PRES
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. EC IS MUCH WEAKER WITH NO PCPN. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST
AS PCPN REMAINS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE N WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE
PRESENT.

FINAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH MON. GFS IS SLIGHTLY
MORE AMPLIFIED ALOFT WITH THE VORT MAX PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH PCPN DUE TO RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE S.
EC IS FURTHER N. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS.

SW-W FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS AT H5...ALTHOUGH LARGE DIFFERENCES
BECOME PREVALENT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GFS BECOMES MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED WED/THU WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BECOMING PICKED
UP IN THE FLOW AND PASSING NEAR THE AREA WED. EC IS MUCH FLATTER
WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.  REMAINING DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS
POSSIBLY UNTIL MID WEEK.

TEMPS WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FRI NIGHT
AND LOWER 30S SAT...BUT A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 30S FOR LOWS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. RADAR DATA AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE STRONGLY
SUGGEST LAST BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL CROSS NYC TERMINALS BETWEEN
18-21Z SO WE HAVE EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW BY AN ADDITIONAL
1-3 HOURS IN TAF. BASED ON THE LATEST DATA...BACK EDGE OF SNOW
SHOULD SWING THROUGH REGION BY 00Z AND EXPECT VFR TO RETURN AFTER
00Z. KSWF IS ALREADY NORTH OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW...SO MVFR TO VFR
IS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW AROUND 10-12 KT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

OVERALL...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH WINDS AND LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH
CATEGORICAL CHANGES WHICH COULD VARY A FEW HOURS WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

EXPECTED RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KHPN/KBDR...3-5 INCHES.
KSWF...1-2 INCHES.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI-TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
RUN 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS PREDOMINANT
TODAY.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS...POSSIBLY BECOMING MODERATE LATE TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AS WELL LATE TONIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/10 TO 7/10 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TODAY. THIS
WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE
START OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ011-
     012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ005>010.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ067>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...24/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV
EQUIPMENT...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 051746
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1246 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASS TO THE
NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE NEXT BAND OF HVY SNOW IS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NJ AND THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 1 INCH
PER HOUR AS SHOWN BY NEWARK`S LATEST 17Z SNINCR METAR OBSERVATION.

FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT UNDER TOP NEWS OF THE DAY.

THE HEAVIEST MEASURED SNOWFALL REPORTS ARE AROUND 5 INCHES THROUGH NOON.

WE WILL BE RECEIVING THE LATEST SNOWFALL UPDATES FROM OUR FIRST
ORDER CLIMATE STATIONS AROUND 1 PM. STAY TUNED.

OTHERWISE...CONTINUED TO STAIR STEP INCREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS
THE SNOWFALL RATIOS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 TO 1 AFT 18Z.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE WARNING AREA...WIDESPREAD 6-8 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES.

ADVISORIES ISSUED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN FAIRFIELD...NORTHERN
NEW HAVEN AND ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES.

FOR THOSE UNDER THE ADVISORY AREA...A WIDESPREAD 4 TO 6 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS.



THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT STATUS OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES.

THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS REPORTED 2 CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF 1 INCH SNOWFALL
INCREASES AT 13Z AND 14Z...EWR / LGA / JFK / ISP.

BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM FORECAST TRENDS...EXPECT
SNOWFALL INTENSITIES TO RANGE FROM LIGHT TO HEAVY WITH THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE ARCTIC
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA.

RAISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...MAINLY
THROUGH 18Z.

ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST LONG ISLAND COMES TO AND END
THIS EVENING...WITH FRIGID AND BUT DRYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC
METRO...ON GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND CHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND
ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. D

DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 20S CAUSING ICING
OF UNTREATED SURFACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SPLIT FLOW THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A FAST ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A BROAD TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL US THROUGH MEXICO. ZONAL
H5 FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT.

OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
40S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT...BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE AREA SAT AND MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT. DOWN SLOPING
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT
BEST LATE SAT NIGHT. THE NAM/GFS ARE INDICATING A WEAK LOW PRES
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. EC IS MUCH WEAKER WITH NO PCPN. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST
AS PCPN REMAINS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE N WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE
PRESENT.

FINAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH MON. GFS IS SLIGHTLY
MORE AMPLIFIED ALOFT WITH THE VORT MAX PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH PCPN DUE TO RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE S.
EC IS FURTHER N. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS.

SW-W FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS AT H5...ALTHOUGH LARGE DIFFERENCES
BECOME PREVALENT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GFS BECOMES MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED WED/THU WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BECOMING PICKED
UP IN THE FLOW AND PASSING NEAR THE AREA WED. EC IS MUCH FLATTER
WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.  REMAINING DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS
POSSIBLY UNTIL MID WEEK.

TEMPS WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FRI NIGHT
AND LOWER 30S SAT...BUT A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 30S FOR LOWS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. RADAR DATA AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE STRONGLY
SUGGEST LAST BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL CROSS NYC TERMINALS BETWEEN
18-21Z SO WE HAVE EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW BY AN ADDITIONAL
1-3 HOURS IN TAF. BASED ON THE LATEST DATA...BACK EDGE OF SNOW
SHOULD SWING THROUGH REGION BY 00Z AND EXPECT VFR TO RETURN AFTER
00Z. KSWF IS ALREADY NORTH OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW...SO MVFR TO VFR
IS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW AROUND 10-12 KT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

OVERALL...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH WINDS AND LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH
CATEGORICAL CHANGES WHICH COULD VARY A FEW HOURS WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

EXPECTED RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KHPN/KBDR...3-5 INCHES.
KSWF...1-2 INCHES.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI-TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
RUN 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS PREDOMINANT
TODAY.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS...POSSIBLY BECOMING MODERATE LATE TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AS WELL LATE TONIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/10 TO 7/10 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TODAY. THIS
WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE
START OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ067>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...24/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV
EQUIPMENT...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 051746
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1246 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASS TO THE
NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE NEXT BAND OF HVY SNOW IS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NJ AND THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 1 INCH
PER HOUR AS SHOWN BY NEWARK`S LATEST 17Z SNINCR METAR OBSERVATION.

FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT UNDER TOP NEWS OF THE DAY.

THE HEAVIEST MEASURED SNOWFALL REPORTS ARE AROUND 5 INCHES THROUGH NOON.

WE WILL BE RECEIVING THE LATEST SNOWFALL UPDATES FROM OUR FIRST
ORDER CLIMATE STATIONS AROUND 1 PM. STAY TUNED.

OTHERWISE...CONTINUED TO STAIR STEP INCREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS
THE SNOWFALL RATIOS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 TO 1 AFT 18Z.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE WARNING AREA...WIDESPREAD 6-8 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES.

ADVISORIES ISSUED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN FAIRFIELD...NORTHERN
NEW HAVEN AND ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES.

FOR THOSE UNDER THE ADVISORY AREA...A WIDESPREAD 4 TO 6 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS.



THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT STATUS OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES.

THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS REPORTED 2 CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF 1 INCH SNOWFALL
INCREASES AT 13Z AND 14Z...EWR / LGA / JFK / ISP.

BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM FORECAST TRENDS...EXPECT
SNOWFALL INTENSITIES TO RANGE FROM LIGHT TO HEAVY WITH THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE ARCTIC
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA.

RAISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...MAINLY
THROUGH 18Z.

ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST LONG ISLAND COMES TO AND END
THIS EVENING...WITH FRIGID AND BUT DRYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC
METRO...ON GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND CHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND
ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. D

DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 20S CAUSING ICING
OF UNTREATED SURFACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SPLIT FLOW THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A FAST ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A BROAD TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL US THROUGH MEXICO. ZONAL
H5 FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT.

OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
40S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT...BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE AREA SAT AND MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT. DOWN SLOPING
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT
BEST LATE SAT NIGHT. THE NAM/GFS ARE INDICATING A WEAK LOW PRES
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. EC IS MUCH WEAKER WITH NO PCPN. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST
AS PCPN REMAINS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE N WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE
PRESENT.

FINAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH MON. GFS IS SLIGHTLY
MORE AMPLIFIED ALOFT WITH THE VORT MAX PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH PCPN DUE TO RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE S.
EC IS FURTHER N. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS.

SW-W FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS AT H5...ALTHOUGH LARGE DIFFERENCES
BECOME PREVALENT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GFS BECOMES MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED WED/THU WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BECOMING PICKED
UP IN THE FLOW AND PASSING NEAR THE AREA WED. EC IS MUCH FLATTER
WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.  REMAINING DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS
POSSIBLY UNTIL MID WEEK.

TEMPS WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FRI NIGHT
AND LOWER 30S SAT...BUT A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 30S FOR LOWS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. RADAR DATA AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE STRONGLY
SUGGEST LAST BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL CROSS NYC TERMINALS BETWEEN
18-21Z SO WE HAVE EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW BY AN ADDITIONAL
1-3 HOURS IN TAF. BASED ON THE LATEST DATA...BACK EDGE OF SNOW
SHOULD SWING THROUGH REGION BY 00Z AND EXPECT VFR TO RETURN AFTER
00Z. KSWF IS ALREADY NORTH OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW...SO MVFR TO VFR
IS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW AROUND 10-12 KT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

OVERALL...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH WINDS AND LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH
CATEGORICAL CHANGES WHICH COULD VARY A FEW HOURS WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

EXPECTED RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KHPN/KBDR...3-5 INCHES.
KSWF...1-2 INCHES.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI-TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
RUN 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS PREDOMINANT
TODAY.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS...POSSIBLY BECOMING MODERATE LATE TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AS WELL LATE TONIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/10 TO 7/10 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TODAY. THIS
WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE
START OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ067>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...24/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 051725
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1225 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASS TO THE
NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE NEXT BAND OF HVY SNOW IS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NJ AND THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 1 INCH
PER HOUR AS SHOWN BY NEWARK`S LATEST 17Z SNINCR METAR OBSERVATION.

FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT UNDER TOP NEWS OF THE DAY.

THE HEAVIEST MEASURED SNOWFALL REPORTS ARE AROUND 5 INCHES THROUGH NOON.

WE WILL BE RECEIVING THE LATEST SNOWFALL UPDATES FROM OUR FIRST
ORDER CLIMATE STATIONS AROUND 1 PM. STAY TUNED.

OTHERWISE...CONTINUED TO STAIR STEP INCREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS
THE SNOWFALL RATIOS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 TO 1 AFT 18Z.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE WARNING AREA...WIDESPREAD 6-8 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES.

ADVISORIES ISSUED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN FAIRFIELD...NORTHERN
NEW HAVEN AND ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES.

FOR THOSE UNDER THE ADVISORY AREA...A WIDESPREAD 4 TO 6 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS.



THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT STATUS OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES.

THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS REPORTED 2 CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF 1 INCH SNOWFALL
INCREASES AT 13Z AND 14Z...EWR / LGA / JFK / ISP.

BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM FORECAST TRENDS...EXPECT
SNOWFALL INTENSITIES TO RANGE FROM LIGHT TO HEAVY WITH THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE ARCTIC
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA.

RAISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...MAINLY
THROUGH 18Z.

ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST LONG ISLAND COMES TO AND END
THIS EVENING...WITH FRIGID AND BUT DRYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC
METRO...ON GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND CHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND
ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. D

DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 20S CAUSING ICING
OF UNTREATED SURFACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SPLIT FLOW THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A FAST ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A BROAD TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL US THROUGH MEXICO. ZONAL
H5 FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT.

OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
40S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT...BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE AREA SAT AND MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT. DOWN SLOPING
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT
BEST LATE SAT NIGHT. THE NAM/GFS ARE INDICATING A WEAK LOW PRES
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. EC IS MUCH WEAKER WITH NO PCPN. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST
AS PCPN REMAINS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE N WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE
PRESENT.

FINAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH MON. GFS IS SLIGHTLY
MORE AMPLIFIED ALOFT WITH THE VORT MAX PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH PCPN DUE TO RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE S.
EC IS FURTHER N. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS.

SW-W FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS AT H5...ALTHOUGH LARGE DIFFERENCES
BECOME PREVALENT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GFS BECOMES MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED WED/THU WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BECOMING PICKED
UP IN THE FLOW AND PASSING NEAR THE AREA WED. EC IS MUCH FLATTER
WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.  REMAINING DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS
POSSIBLY UNTIL MID WEEK.

TEMPS WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FRI NIGHT
AND LOWER 30S SAT...BUT A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 30S FOR LOWS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THE
DAY NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW BY 1 HOUR TO 18Z AT ALL NYC
TERMINALS...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. KSWF WILL BE NORTH OF
THE HEAVIEST SNOW...SO MVFR TO IFR THERE.

SNOW EVENTUALLY TAPERS OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE AFTER 00Z.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE N-NW AROUND 10-12 KT THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OVERALL...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH WINDS AND LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH
CATEGORICAL CHANGES WHICH COULD VARY A FEW HOURS WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

EXPECTED RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KHPN/KBDR...3-5 INCHES.
KSWF...1-2 INCHES.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI-MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
RUN 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS PREDOMINANT
TODAY.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS...POSSIBLY BECOMING MODERATE LATE TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AS WELL LATE TONIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/10 TO 7/10 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TODAY. THIS
WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE
START OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ067>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...24/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 051725
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1225 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASS TO THE
NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE NEXT BAND OF HVY SNOW IS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NJ AND THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 1 INCH
PER HOUR AS SHOWN BY NEWARK`S LATEST 17Z SNINCR METAR OBSERVATION.

FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT UNDER TOP NEWS OF THE DAY.

THE HEAVIEST MEASURED SNOWFALL REPORTS ARE AROUND 5 INCHES THROUGH NOON.

WE WILL BE RECEIVING THE LATEST SNOWFALL UPDATES FROM OUR FIRST
ORDER CLIMATE STATIONS AROUND 1 PM. STAY TUNED.

OTHERWISE...CONTINUED TO STAIR STEP INCREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS
THE SNOWFALL RATIOS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 TO 1 AFT 18Z.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE WARNING AREA...WIDESPREAD 6-8 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES.

ADVISORIES ISSUED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN FAIRFIELD...NORTHERN
NEW HAVEN AND ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES.

FOR THOSE UNDER THE ADVISORY AREA...A WIDESPREAD 4 TO 6 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS.



THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT STATUS OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES.

THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS REPORTED 2 CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF 1 INCH SNOWFALL
INCREASES AT 13Z AND 14Z...EWR / LGA / JFK / ISP.

BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM FORECAST TRENDS...EXPECT
SNOWFALL INTENSITIES TO RANGE FROM LIGHT TO HEAVY WITH THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE ARCTIC
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA.

RAISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...MAINLY
THROUGH 18Z.

ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST LONG ISLAND COMES TO AND END
THIS EVENING...WITH FRIGID AND BUT DRYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC
METRO...ON GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND CHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND
ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. D

DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 20S CAUSING ICING
OF UNTREATED SURFACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SPLIT FLOW THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A FAST ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A BROAD TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL US THROUGH MEXICO. ZONAL
H5 FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT.

OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
40S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT...BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE AREA SAT AND MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT. DOWN SLOPING
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT
BEST LATE SAT NIGHT. THE NAM/GFS ARE INDICATING A WEAK LOW PRES
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. EC IS MUCH WEAKER WITH NO PCPN. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST
AS PCPN REMAINS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE N WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE
PRESENT.

FINAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH MON. GFS IS SLIGHTLY
MORE AMPLIFIED ALOFT WITH THE VORT MAX PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH PCPN DUE TO RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE S.
EC IS FURTHER N. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS.

SW-W FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS AT H5...ALTHOUGH LARGE DIFFERENCES
BECOME PREVALENT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GFS BECOMES MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED WED/THU WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BECOMING PICKED
UP IN THE FLOW AND PASSING NEAR THE AREA WED. EC IS MUCH FLATTER
WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.  REMAINING DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS
POSSIBLY UNTIL MID WEEK.

TEMPS WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FRI NIGHT
AND LOWER 30S SAT...BUT A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 30S FOR LOWS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THE
DAY NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW BY 1 HOUR TO 18Z AT ALL NYC
TERMINALS...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. KSWF WILL BE NORTH OF
THE HEAVIEST SNOW...SO MVFR TO IFR THERE.

SNOW EVENTUALLY TAPERS OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE AFTER 00Z.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE N-NW AROUND 10-12 KT THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OVERALL...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH WINDS AND LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH
CATEGORICAL CHANGES WHICH COULD VARY A FEW HOURS WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

EXPECTED RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KHPN/KBDR...3-5 INCHES.
KSWF...1-2 INCHES.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI-MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
RUN 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS PREDOMINANT
TODAY.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS...POSSIBLY BECOMING MODERATE LATE TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AS WELL LATE TONIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/10 TO 7/10 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TODAY. THIS
WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE
START OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ067>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...24/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV
EQUIPMENT...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 051456
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
956 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASS TO THE
NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT STATUS OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES.

THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS REPORTED 2 CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF 1 INCH SNOWFALL
INCREASES AT 13Z AND 14Z...EWR / LGA / JFK / ISP.

BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM FORECAST TRENDS...EXPECT
SNOWFALL INTENSITIES TO RANGE FROM LIGHT TO HEAVY WITH THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE ARCTIC
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA.

RAISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...MAINLY
THROUGH 18Z.

DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 20S CAUSING ICING
OF UNTREATED SURFACES.

OTHERWISE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEP TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE CENTRAL US GRADUALLY SLIDING TO EAST COAST BY THIS EVENING...AND
THEN OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT MOIST SUBTROPICAL PAC MOISTURE
PLUME RIDING INTO THE REGION IS EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL TRACK NE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH TODAY...TAPPING INTO THIS
MOISTURE...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND UNDER
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 200KT UPPER JET.

BIGGEST MODEL DIFFERENCES COMPARED TO 12 TO 24 HOURS AGO WAS SLOWER
COLUMN COOLING EARLY THIS MORNING BY ABOUT 3-4 HOURS...BUT A
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF MOISTURE PLUME THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY MEANING HIGHER QPF. OVERALL THIS IS LENDING TO A FAIRLY
SIMILAR FORECAST OF SNOW AMOUNTS.

POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH MODEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING COUPLED WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS. SREF IS INDICATING
LIKELY PROB OF 1" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES DURING THIS TIME FOR
NYC/NJ METRO AND LI. SBU WRF SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH QPF
BETWEEN 7 AM AND 1 PM ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LI/NYC. SNOW
SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE FROM NW TO SE
THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE
STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

REGION IS ON EDGE OF A TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT. HAVE RELIED ON A
OPER/HIGH RES ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO QPF...WITH GENERALLY A 1/10TH
OR LESS QPF ORANGE COUNTY TO CLOSE TO 7/10 INCH OF QPF ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LI. THE HIGHEST PROB FOR 1/2 INCH LIQUID QPF REMAINS
ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NYC/NJ METRO AND LI. SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...WITH
HEAVY WET SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME LIGHT AND POWDERY BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL TOTALS...A GENERAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW
STILL EXPECTED FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND LI...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WARNING CONTINUES HERE. POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO
5 INCHES FOR COASTAL CT AND SOUTHEASTERN CT...THE REST OF NE
NJ...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THIS AREA...AND
HAVE EXPANDED ADVISORY INTO NORTHERN MIDDLESEX AND NORTHERN NEW
LONDON BASED ON TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE PLUME AND REPORTS OF UP TO
1/2 INCH THERE ALREADY. FINALLY...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP
ACROSS AREAS FAR N&W OF NYC...BETWEEN DUSTING TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED
FROM NW TO SE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LI COMES TO AND END THIS
EVENING...WITH FRIGID AND BUT DRYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC METRO...ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND CHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SPLIT FLOW THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A FAST ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A BROAD TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL US THROUGH MEXICO. ZONAL
H5 FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT.

OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
40S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT...BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE AREA SAT AND MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT. DOWN SLOPING
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT
BEST LATE SAT NIGHT. THE NAM/GFS ARE INDICATING A WEAK LOW PRES
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. EC IS MUCH WEAKER WITH NO PCPN. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST
AS PCPN REMAINS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE N WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE
PRESENT.

FINAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH MON. GFS IS SLIGHTLY
MORE AMPLIFIED ALOFT WITH THE VORT MAX PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH PCPN DUE TO RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE S.
EC IS FURTHER N. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS.

SW-W FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS AT H5...ALTHOUGH LARGE DIFFERENCES
BECOME PREVALENT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GFS BECOMES MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED WED/THU WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BECOMING PICKED
UP IN THE FLOW AND PASSING NEAR THE AREA WED. EC IS MUCH FLATTER
WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.  REMAINING DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS
POSSIBLY UNTIL MID WEEK.

TEMPS WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FRI NIGHT
AND LOWER 30S SAT...BUT A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 30S FOR LOWS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THE
DAY NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW BY 1 HOUR TO 18Z AT ALL NYC
TERMINALS...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. KSWF WILL BE NORTH OF
THE HEAVIEST SNOW...SO MVFR TO IFR THERE.

SNOW EVENTUALLY TAPERS OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE AFTER 00Z.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE N-NW AROUND 10-12 KT THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OVERALL...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH WINDS AND LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH
CATEGORICAL CHANGES WHICH COULD VARY A FEW HOURS WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

EXPECTED RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KHPN/KBDR...3-5 INCHES.
KSWF...1-2 INCHES.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI-MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
RUN 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS PREDOMINANT
TODAY.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS...POSSIBLY BECOMING MODERATE LATE TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AS WELL LATE TONIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/10 TO 7/10 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TODAY. THIS
WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE
START OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ007>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/NV
NEAR TERM...GC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...IRD/JM
MARINE...24/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV
EQUIPMENT...










000
FXUS61 KOKX 051456
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
956 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASS TO THE
NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT STATUS OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES.

THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS REPORTED 2 CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF 1 INCH SNOWFALL
INCREASES AT 13Z AND 14Z...EWR / LGA / JFK / ISP.

BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM FORECAST TRENDS...EXPECT
SNOWFALL INTENSITIES TO RANGE FROM LIGHT TO HEAVY WITH THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE ARCTIC
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA.

RAISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...MAINLY
THROUGH 18Z.

DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 20S CAUSING ICING
OF UNTREATED SURFACES.

OTHERWISE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEP TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE CENTRAL US GRADUALLY SLIDING TO EAST COAST BY THIS EVENING...AND
THEN OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT MOIST SUBTROPICAL PAC MOISTURE
PLUME RIDING INTO THE REGION IS EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL TRACK NE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH TODAY...TAPPING INTO THIS
MOISTURE...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND UNDER
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 200KT UPPER JET.

BIGGEST MODEL DIFFERENCES COMPARED TO 12 TO 24 HOURS AGO WAS SLOWER
COLUMN COOLING EARLY THIS MORNING BY ABOUT 3-4 HOURS...BUT A
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF MOISTURE PLUME THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY MEANING HIGHER QPF. OVERALL THIS IS LENDING TO A FAIRLY
SIMILAR FORECAST OF SNOW AMOUNTS.

POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH MODEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING COUPLED WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS. SREF IS INDICATING
LIKELY PROB OF 1" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES DURING THIS TIME FOR
NYC/NJ METRO AND LI. SBU WRF SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH QPF
BETWEEN 7 AM AND 1 PM ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LI/NYC. SNOW
SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE FROM NW TO SE
THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE
STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

REGION IS ON EDGE OF A TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT. HAVE RELIED ON A
OPER/HIGH RES ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO QPF...WITH GENERALLY A 1/10TH
OR LESS QPF ORANGE COUNTY TO CLOSE TO 7/10 INCH OF QPF ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LI. THE HIGHEST PROB FOR 1/2 INCH LIQUID QPF REMAINS
ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NYC/NJ METRO AND LI. SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...WITH
HEAVY WET SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME LIGHT AND POWDERY BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL TOTALS...A GENERAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW
STILL EXPECTED FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND LI...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WARNING CONTINUES HERE. POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO
5 INCHES FOR COASTAL CT AND SOUTHEASTERN CT...THE REST OF NE
NJ...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THIS AREA...AND
HAVE EXPANDED ADVISORY INTO NORTHERN MIDDLESEX AND NORTHERN NEW
LONDON BASED ON TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE PLUME AND REPORTS OF UP TO
1/2 INCH THERE ALREADY. FINALLY...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP
ACROSS AREAS FAR N&W OF NYC...BETWEEN DUSTING TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED
FROM NW TO SE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LI COMES TO AND END THIS
EVENING...WITH FRIGID AND BUT DRYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC METRO...ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND CHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SPLIT FLOW THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A FAST ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A BROAD TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL US THROUGH MEXICO. ZONAL
H5 FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT.

OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
40S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT...BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE AREA SAT AND MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT. DOWN SLOPING
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT
BEST LATE SAT NIGHT. THE NAM/GFS ARE INDICATING A WEAK LOW PRES
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. EC IS MUCH WEAKER WITH NO PCPN. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST
AS PCPN REMAINS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE N WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE
PRESENT.

FINAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH MON. GFS IS SLIGHTLY
MORE AMPLIFIED ALOFT WITH THE VORT MAX PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH PCPN DUE TO RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE S.
EC IS FURTHER N. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS.

SW-W FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS AT H5...ALTHOUGH LARGE DIFFERENCES
BECOME PREVALENT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GFS BECOMES MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED WED/THU WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BECOMING PICKED
UP IN THE FLOW AND PASSING NEAR THE AREA WED. EC IS MUCH FLATTER
WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.  REMAINING DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS
POSSIBLY UNTIL MID WEEK.

TEMPS WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FRI NIGHT
AND LOWER 30S SAT...BUT A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 30S FOR LOWS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THE
DAY NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW BY 1 HOUR TO 18Z AT ALL NYC
TERMINALS...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. KSWF WILL BE NORTH OF
THE HEAVIEST SNOW...SO MVFR TO IFR THERE.

SNOW EVENTUALLY TAPERS OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE AFTER 00Z.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE N-NW AROUND 10-12 KT THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OVERALL...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH WINDS AND LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH
CATEGORICAL CHANGES WHICH COULD VARY A FEW HOURS WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

EXPECTED RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KHPN/KBDR...3-5 INCHES.
KSWF...1-2 INCHES.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI-MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
RUN 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS PREDOMINANT
TODAY.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS...POSSIBLY BECOMING MODERATE LATE TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AS WELL LATE TONIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/10 TO 7/10 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TODAY. THIS
WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE
START OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ007>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/NV
NEAR TERM...GC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...IRD/JM
MARINE...24/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV
EQUIPMENT...









000
FXUS61 KOKX 051456
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
956 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASS TO THE
NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT STATUS OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES.

THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS REPORTED 2 CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF 1 INCH SNOWFALL
INCREASES AT 13Z AND 14Z...EWR / LGA / JFK / ISP.

BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM FORECAST TRENDS...EXPECT
SNOWFALL INTENSITIES TO RANGE FROM LIGHT TO HEAVY WITH THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE ARCTIC
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA.

RAISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...MAINLY
THROUGH 18Z.

DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 20S CAUSING ICING
OF UNTREATED SURFACES.

OTHERWISE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEP TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE CENTRAL US GRADUALLY SLIDING TO EAST COAST BY THIS EVENING...AND
THEN OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT MOIST SUBTROPICAL PAC MOISTURE
PLUME RIDING INTO THE REGION IS EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL TRACK NE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH TODAY...TAPPING INTO THIS
MOISTURE...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND UNDER
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 200KT UPPER JET.

BIGGEST MODEL DIFFERENCES COMPARED TO 12 TO 24 HOURS AGO WAS SLOWER
COLUMN COOLING EARLY THIS MORNING BY ABOUT 3-4 HOURS...BUT A
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF MOISTURE PLUME THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY MEANING HIGHER QPF. OVERALL THIS IS LENDING TO A FAIRLY
SIMILAR FORECAST OF SNOW AMOUNTS.

POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH MODEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING COUPLED WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS. SREF IS INDICATING
LIKELY PROB OF 1" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES DURING THIS TIME FOR
NYC/NJ METRO AND LI. SBU WRF SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH QPF
BETWEEN 7 AM AND 1 PM ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LI/NYC. SNOW
SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE FROM NW TO SE
THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE
STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

REGION IS ON EDGE OF A TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT. HAVE RELIED ON A
OPER/HIGH RES ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO QPF...WITH GENERALLY A 1/10TH
OR LESS QPF ORANGE COUNTY TO CLOSE TO 7/10 INCH OF QPF ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LI. THE HIGHEST PROB FOR 1/2 INCH LIQUID QPF REMAINS
ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NYC/NJ METRO AND LI. SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...WITH
HEAVY WET SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME LIGHT AND POWDERY BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL TOTALS...A GENERAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW
STILL EXPECTED FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND LI...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WARNING CONTINUES HERE. POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO
5 INCHES FOR COASTAL CT AND SOUTHEASTERN CT...THE REST OF NE
NJ...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THIS AREA...AND
HAVE EXPANDED ADVISORY INTO NORTHERN MIDDLESEX AND NORTHERN NEW
LONDON BASED ON TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE PLUME AND REPORTS OF UP TO
1/2 INCH THERE ALREADY. FINALLY...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP
ACROSS AREAS FAR N&W OF NYC...BETWEEN DUSTING TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED
FROM NW TO SE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LI COMES TO AND END THIS
EVENING...WITH FRIGID AND BUT DRYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC METRO...ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND CHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SPLIT FLOW THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A FAST ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A BROAD TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL US THROUGH MEXICO. ZONAL
H5 FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT.

OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
40S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT...BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE AREA SAT AND MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT. DOWN SLOPING
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT
BEST LATE SAT NIGHT. THE NAM/GFS ARE INDICATING A WEAK LOW PRES
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. EC IS MUCH WEAKER WITH NO PCPN. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST
AS PCPN REMAINS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE N WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE
PRESENT.

FINAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH MON. GFS IS SLIGHTLY
MORE AMPLIFIED ALOFT WITH THE VORT MAX PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH PCPN DUE TO RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE S.
EC IS FURTHER N. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS.

SW-W FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS AT H5...ALTHOUGH LARGE DIFFERENCES
BECOME PREVALENT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GFS BECOMES MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED WED/THU WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BECOMING PICKED
UP IN THE FLOW AND PASSING NEAR THE AREA WED. EC IS MUCH FLATTER
WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.  REMAINING DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS
POSSIBLY UNTIL MID WEEK.

TEMPS WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FRI NIGHT
AND LOWER 30S SAT...BUT A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 30S FOR LOWS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THE
DAY NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW BY 1 HOUR TO 18Z AT ALL NYC
TERMINALS...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. KSWF WILL BE NORTH OF
THE HEAVIEST SNOW...SO MVFR TO IFR THERE.

SNOW EVENTUALLY TAPERS OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE AFTER 00Z.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE N-NW AROUND 10-12 KT THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OVERALL...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH WINDS AND LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH
CATEGORICAL CHANGES WHICH COULD VARY A FEW HOURS WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

EXPECTED RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KHPN/KBDR...3-5 INCHES.
KSWF...1-2 INCHES.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI-MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
RUN 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS PREDOMINANT
TODAY.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS...POSSIBLY BECOMING MODERATE LATE TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AS WELL LATE TONIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/10 TO 7/10 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TODAY. THIS
WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE
START OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ007>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/NV
NEAR TERM...GC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...IRD/JM
MARINE...24/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV
EQUIPMENT...










000
FXUS61 KOKX 051456
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
956 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASS TO THE
NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT STATUS OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES.

THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS REPORTED 2 CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF 1 INCH SNOWFALL
INCREASES AT 13Z AND 14Z...EWR / LGA / JFK / ISP.

BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM FORECAST TRENDS...EXPECT
SNOWFALL INTENSITIES TO RANGE FROM LIGHT TO HEAVY WITH THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE ARCTIC
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA.

RAISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...MAINLY
THROUGH 18Z.

DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 20S CAUSING ICING
OF UNTREATED SURFACES.

OTHERWISE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEP TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE CENTRAL US GRADUALLY SLIDING TO EAST COAST BY THIS EVENING...AND
THEN OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT MOIST SUBTROPICAL PAC MOISTURE
PLUME RIDING INTO THE REGION IS EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL TRACK NE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH TODAY...TAPPING INTO THIS
MOISTURE...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND UNDER
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 200KT UPPER JET.

BIGGEST MODEL DIFFERENCES COMPARED TO 12 TO 24 HOURS AGO WAS SLOWER
COLUMN COOLING EARLY THIS MORNING BY ABOUT 3-4 HOURS...BUT A
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF MOISTURE PLUME THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY MEANING HIGHER QPF. OVERALL THIS IS LENDING TO A FAIRLY
SIMILAR FORECAST OF SNOW AMOUNTS.

POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH MODEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING COUPLED WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS. SREF IS INDICATING
LIKELY PROB OF 1" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES DURING THIS TIME FOR
NYC/NJ METRO AND LI. SBU WRF SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH QPF
BETWEEN 7 AM AND 1 PM ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LI/NYC. SNOW
SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE FROM NW TO SE
THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE
STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

REGION IS ON EDGE OF A TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT. HAVE RELIED ON A
OPER/HIGH RES ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO QPF...WITH GENERALLY A 1/10TH
OR LESS QPF ORANGE COUNTY TO CLOSE TO 7/10 INCH OF QPF ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LI. THE HIGHEST PROB FOR 1/2 INCH LIQUID QPF REMAINS
ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NYC/NJ METRO AND LI. SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...WITH
HEAVY WET SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME LIGHT AND POWDERY BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL TOTALS...A GENERAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW
STILL EXPECTED FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND LI...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WARNING CONTINUES HERE. POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO
5 INCHES FOR COASTAL CT AND SOUTHEASTERN CT...THE REST OF NE
NJ...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THIS AREA...AND
HAVE EXPANDED ADVISORY INTO NORTHERN MIDDLESEX AND NORTHERN NEW
LONDON BASED ON TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE PLUME AND REPORTS OF UP TO
1/2 INCH THERE ALREADY. FINALLY...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP
ACROSS AREAS FAR N&W OF NYC...BETWEEN DUSTING TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED
FROM NW TO SE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LI COMES TO AND END THIS
EVENING...WITH FRIGID AND BUT DRYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC METRO...ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND CHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SPLIT FLOW THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A FAST ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A BROAD TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL US THROUGH MEXICO. ZONAL
H5 FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT.

OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
40S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT...BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE AREA SAT AND MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT. DOWN SLOPING
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT
BEST LATE SAT NIGHT. THE NAM/GFS ARE INDICATING A WEAK LOW PRES
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. EC IS MUCH WEAKER WITH NO PCPN. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST
AS PCPN REMAINS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE N WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE
PRESENT.

FINAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH MON. GFS IS SLIGHTLY
MORE AMPLIFIED ALOFT WITH THE VORT MAX PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH PCPN DUE TO RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE S.
EC IS FURTHER N. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS.

SW-W FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS AT H5...ALTHOUGH LARGE DIFFERENCES
BECOME PREVALENT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GFS BECOMES MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED WED/THU WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BECOMING PICKED
UP IN THE FLOW AND PASSING NEAR THE AREA WED. EC IS MUCH FLATTER
WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.  REMAINING DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS
POSSIBLY UNTIL MID WEEK.

TEMPS WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FRI NIGHT
AND LOWER 30S SAT...BUT A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 30S FOR LOWS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THE
DAY NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW BY 1 HOUR TO 18Z AT ALL NYC
TERMINALS...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. KSWF WILL BE NORTH OF
THE HEAVIEST SNOW...SO MVFR TO IFR THERE.

SNOW EVENTUALLY TAPERS OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE AFTER 00Z.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE N-NW AROUND 10-12 KT THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OVERALL...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH WINDS AND LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH
CATEGORICAL CHANGES WHICH COULD VARY A FEW HOURS WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

EXPECTED RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KHPN/KBDR...3-5 INCHES.
KSWF...1-2 INCHES.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI-MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
RUN 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS PREDOMINANT
TODAY.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS...POSSIBLY BECOMING MODERATE LATE TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AS WELL LATE TONIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/10 TO 7/10 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TODAY. THIS
WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE
START OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ007>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/NV
NEAR TERM...GC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...IRD/JM
MARINE...24/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV
EQUIPMENT...









000
FXUS61 KOKX 051220
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
720 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG
A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASS TO THE
NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING...WITH SNOW OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
INTENSITY DEVELOPING ACROSS NYC/NJ METRO AND LI...WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO THE
NORTH. DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAIL END
OF THE MORNING COMMUTE AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AND CAUSING ICING
OF UNTREATED SURFACES.

OTHERWISE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEP TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE CENTRAL US GRADUALLY SLIDING TO EAST COAST BY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT MOIST SUBTROPICAL
PAC MOISTURE PLUME RIDING INTO THE REGION IS EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL TRACK NE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH TODAY...TAPPING INTO THIS
MOISTURE...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND UNDER
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 200KT UPPER JET.

BIGGEST MODEL DIFFERENCES COMPARED TO 12 TO 24 HOURS AGO WAS SLOWER
COLUMN COOLING EARLY THIS MORNING BY ABOUT 3-4 HOURS...BUT A
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF MOISTURE PLUME THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY MEANING HIGHER QPF. OVERALL THIS IS LENDING TO A FAIRLY
SIMILAR FORECAST OF SNOW AMOUNTS.

ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 10Z TO
15Z...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER
20S LATE THIS MORNING...AND DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S THIS
AFTERNOON. ROAD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN ITS
WAKE...AND COINCIDING AT LEAST PART OF MORNING COMMUTE. ICY
CONDITIONS AND SNOW COVERED ROADS EXPECTED FOR AFT/EVE COMMUTE AS
WELL.

POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH MODEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING COUPLED WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS. SREF IS INDICATING
LIKELY PROB OF 1" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES DURING THIS TIME FOR
NYC/NJ METRO AND LI. SBU WRF SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH QPF
BETWEEN 7 AM AND 1 PM ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LI/NYC. SNOW
SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE FROM NW TO SE
THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE
STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

REGION IS ON EDGE OF A TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT. HAVE RELIED ON A
OPER/HIGH RES ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO QPF...WITH GENERALLY A 1/10TH
OR LESS QPF ORANGE COUNTY TO CLOSE TO 7/10 INCH OF QPF ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LI. THE HIGHEST PROB FOR 1/2 INCH LIQUID QPF REMAINS
ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NYC/NJ METRO AND LI. SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...WITH
HEAVY WET SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME LIGHT AND POWDERY BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL TOTALS...A GENERAL 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW
STILL EXPECTED FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND LI...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WARNING CONTINUES HERE. POTENTIAL FOR 2
TO 5 INCHES FOR COASTAL CT AND SOUTHEASTERN CT...THE REST OF NE
NJ...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THIS AREA...AND
HAVE EXPANDED ADVISORY INTO NORTHERN MIDDLESEX AND NORTHERN NEW
LONDON BASED ON TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE PLUME AND REPORTS OF UP TO
1/2 INCH THERE ALREADY. FINALLY...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP
ACROSS AREAS FAR N&W OF NYC...BETWEEN DUSTING TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED
FROM NW TO SE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LI COMES TO AND END THIS
EVENING...WITH FRIGID AND BUT DRYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC METRO...ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. WINDCHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SPLIT FLOW THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A FAST ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A BROAD TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL US THROUGH MEXICO. ZONAL
H5 FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT.

OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
40S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT...BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE AREA SAT AND MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT. DOWNSLOPING
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT
BEST LATE SAT NIGHT. THE NAM/GFS ARE INDICATING A WEAK LOW PRES
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. EC IS MUCH WEAKER WITH NO PCPN. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST
AS PCPN REMAINS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE N WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE
PRESENT.

FINAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH MON. GFS IS SLIGHTLY
MORE AMPLIFIED ALOFT WITH THE VORT MAX PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH PCPN DUE TO RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE S.
EC IS FURTHER N. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS.

SW-W FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS AT H5...ALTHOUGH LARGE DIFFERENCES
BECOME PREVALENT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GFS BECOMES MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED WED/THU WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BECOMING PICKED
UP IN THE FLOW AND PASSING NEAR THE AREA WED. EC IS MUCH FLATTER
WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.  REMAINING DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS
POSSIBLY UNTIL MID WEEK.

TEMPS WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FRI NIGHT
AND LOWER 30S SAT...BUT A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 30S FOR LOWS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND. PERIODS OF SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...MODERATE TO HEAVY NEAR
THE COAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IFR AND BELOW THROUGH THE
DAY FOR MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KSWF WHICH WILL BE NORTH OF MUCH
OF THE SNOW...SO MVFR TO IFR THERE.

SNOW TAPERS OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHEN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW AROUND 10-12 KT THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15-20 KT TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

OVERALL...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH WINDS AND LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH
CATEGORICAL CHANGES WHICH COULD VARY A FEW HOURS WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

EXPECTED RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KHPN/KBDR...3-5 INCHES.
KSWF...1-2 INCHES.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI-MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
RUN 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS PREDOMINANT
TODAY.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS...POSSIBLY BECOMING MODERATE LATE TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AS WELL LATE TONIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/10 TO 7/10 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TODAY. THIS
WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE
START OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ007>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...24/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV










000
FXUS61 KOKX 051220
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
720 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG
A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASS TO THE
NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING...WITH SNOW OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
INTENSITY DEVELOPING ACROSS NYC/NJ METRO AND LI...WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO THE
NORTH. DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAIL END
OF THE MORNING COMMUTE AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AND CAUSING ICING
OF UNTREATED SURFACES.

OTHERWISE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEP TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE CENTRAL US GRADUALLY SLIDING TO EAST COAST BY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT MOIST SUBTROPICAL
PAC MOISTURE PLUME RIDING INTO THE REGION IS EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL TRACK NE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH TODAY...TAPPING INTO THIS
MOISTURE...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND UNDER
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 200KT UPPER JET.

BIGGEST MODEL DIFFERENCES COMPARED TO 12 TO 24 HOURS AGO WAS SLOWER
COLUMN COOLING EARLY THIS MORNING BY ABOUT 3-4 HOURS...BUT A
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF MOISTURE PLUME THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY MEANING HIGHER QPF. OVERALL THIS IS LENDING TO A FAIRLY
SIMILAR FORECAST OF SNOW AMOUNTS.

ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 10Z TO
15Z...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER
20S LATE THIS MORNING...AND DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S THIS
AFTERNOON. ROAD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN ITS
WAKE...AND COINCIDING AT LEAST PART OF MORNING COMMUTE. ICY
CONDITIONS AND SNOW COVERED ROADS EXPECTED FOR AFT/EVE COMMUTE AS
WELL.

POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH MODEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING COUPLED WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS. SREF IS INDICATING
LIKELY PROB OF 1" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES DURING THIS TIME FOR
NYC/NJ METRO AND LI. SBU WRF SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH QPF
BETWEEN 7 AM AND 1 PM ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LI/NYC. SNOW
SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE FROM NW TO SE
THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE
STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

REGION IS ON EDGE OF A TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT. HAVE RELIED ON A
OPER/HIGH RES ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO QPF...WITH GENERALLY A 1/10TH
OR LESS QPF ORANGE COUNTY TO CLOSE TO 7/10 INCH OF QPF ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LI. THE HIGHEST PROB FOR 1/2 INCH LIQUID QPF REMAINS
ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NYC/NJ METRO AND LI. SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...WITH
HEAVY WET SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME LIGHT AND POWDERY BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL TOTALS...A GENERAL 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW
STILL EXPECTED FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND LI...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WARNING CONTINUES HERE. POTENTIAL FOR 2
TO 5 INCHES FOR COASTAL CT AND SOUTHEASTERN CT...THE REST OF NE
NJ...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THIS AREA...AND
HAVE EXPANDED ADVISORY INTO NORTHERN MIDDLESEX AND NORTHERN NEW
LONDON BASED ON TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE PLUME AND REPORTS OF UP TO
1/2 INCH THERE ALREADY. FINALLY...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP
ACROSS AREAS FAR N&W OF NYC...BETWEEN DUSTING TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED
FROM NW TO SE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LI COMES TO AND END THIS
EVENING...WITH FRIGID AND BUT DRYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC METRO...ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. WINDCHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SPLIT FLOW THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A FAST ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A BROAD TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL US THROUGH MEXICO. ZONAL
H5 FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT.

OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
40S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT...BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE AREA SAT AND MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT. DOWNSLOPING
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT
BEST LATE SAT NIGHT. THE NAM/GFS ARE INDICATING A WEAK LOW PRES
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. EC IS MUCH WEAKER WITH NO PCPN. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST
AS PCPN REMAINS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE N WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE
PRESENT.

FINAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH MON. GFS IS SLIGHTLY
MORE AMPLIFIED ALOFT WITH THE VORT MAX PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH PCPN DUE TO RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE S.
EC IS FURTHER N. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS.

SW-W FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS AT H5...ALTHOUGH LARGE DIFFERENCES
BECOME PREVALENT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GFS BECOMES MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED WED/THU WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BECOMING PICKED
UP IN THE FLOW AND PASSING NEAR THE AREA WED. EC IS MUCH FLATTER
WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.  REMAINING DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS
POSSIBLY UNTIL MID WEEK.

TEMPS WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FRI NIGHT
AND LOWER 30S SAT...BUT A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 30S FOR LOWS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND. PERIODS OF SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...MODERATE TO HEAVY NEAR
THE COAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IFR AND BELOW THROUGH THE
DAY FOR MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KSWF WHICH WILL BE NORTH OF MUCH
OF THE SNOW...SO MVFR TO IFR THERE.

SNOW TAPERS OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHEN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW AROUND 10-12 KT THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15-20 KT TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

OVERALL...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH WINDS AND LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH
CATEGORICAL CHANGES WHICH COULD VARY A FEW HOURS WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

EXPECTED RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KHPN/KBDR...3-5 INCHES.
KSWF...1-2 INCHES.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI-MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
RUN 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS PREDOMINANT
TODAY.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS...POSSIBLY BECOMING MODERATE LATE TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AS WELL LATE TONIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/10 TO 7/10 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TODAY. THIS
WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE
START OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ007>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...24/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV









000
FXUS61 KOKX 050933
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
433 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG
A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASS TO THE
NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEP TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL US
GRADUALLY SLIDING TO EAST COAST BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT MOIST SUBTROPICAL PAC MOISTURE PLUME RIDING
INTO THE REGION IS EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF WAVES WILL TRACK NE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT TO THE SOUTH TODAY...TAPPING INTO THIS MOISTURE...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND UNDER INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 200KT UPPER JET.

BIGGEST MODEL DIFFERENCES COMPARED TO 12 TO 24 HOURS AGO WAS SLOWER
COLUMN COOLING EARLY THIS MORNING BY ABOUT 3-4 HOURS...BUT A
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF MOISTURE PLUME THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY MEANING HIGHER QPF. OVERALL THIS IS LENDING TO A FAIRLY
SIMILAR FORECAST OF SNOW AMOUNTS.

PRECIP EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THROUGH 10Z
DOWN TO THE COAST WITH COLUMN COOLING. THE STEADY PROGRESS IS SEEN
IN OBS AND DUAL-POL. ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED FROM NW TO
SE BETWEEN 10Z TO 15Z...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO LOWER TO MID 30S
INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S LATER THIS MORNING...AND DOWN INTO THE LOWER
20S THIS AFTERNOON. ROAD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN
ITS WAKE...AND COINCIDING AT LEAST PART OF MORNING COMMUTE. ICY
CONDITIONS AND SNOW COVERED ROADS EXPECTED FOR AFT/EVE COMMUTE AS
WELL.

POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH MODEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING COUPLED WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS. SREF IS INDICATING
LIKELY PROB OF 1" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES DURING THIS TIME FOR
NYC/NJ METRO AND LI. SBU WRF SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH QPF
BETWEEN 7 AM AND 1 PM ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LI/NYC. SNOW
SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE FROM NW TO SE
THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE
STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

REGION IS ON EDGE OF A TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT. HAVE RELIED ON A
OPER/HIGH RES ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO QPF...WITH GENERALLY A 1/10TH
OR LESS QPF ORANGE COUNTY TO CLOSE TO 7/10 INCH OF QPF ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LI. THE HIGHEST PROB FOR 1/2 INCH LIQUID QPF REMAINS
ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NYC/NJ METRO AND LI. SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...WITH
HEAVY WET SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME LIGHT AND POWDERY BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...A GENERAL 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW STILL
EXPECTED FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND LI...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WARNING CONTINUES HERE. POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 5
INCHES FOR COASTAL CT AND SOUTHEASTERN CT...THE REST OF NE
NJ...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THIS AREA...AND
HAVE EXPANDED ADVISORY INTO NORTHERN MIDDLESEX AND NORTHERN NEW
LONDON BASED ON TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE PLUME AND REPORTS OF UP TO
1/2 INCH THERE ALREADY. FINALLY...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP
ACROSS AREAS FAR N&W OF NYC...BETWEEN DUSTING TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED
FROM NW TO SE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LI COMES TO AND END THIS
EVENING...WITH FRIGID AND BUT DRYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC METRO...ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. WINDCHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SPLIT FLOW THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A FAST ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A BROAD TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL US THROUGH MEXICO. ZONAL
H5 FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT.

OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
40S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT...BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE AREA SAT AND MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT. DOWNSLOPING
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT
BEST LATE SAT NIGHT. THE NAM/GFS ARE INDICATING A WEAK LOW PRES
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. EC IS MUCH WEAKER WITH NO PCPN. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST
AS PCPN REMAINS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE N WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE
PRESENT.

FINAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH MON. GFS IS SLIGHTLY
MORE AMPLIFIED ALOFT WITH THE VORT MAX PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH PCPN DUE TO RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE S.
EC IS FURTHER N. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS.

SW-W FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS AT H5...ALTHOUGH LARGE DIFFERENCES
BECOME PREVALENT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GFS BECOMES MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED WED/THU WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BECOMING PICKED
UP IN THE FLOW AND PASSING NEAR THE AREA WED. EC IS MUCH FLATTER
WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.  REMAINING DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS
POSSIBLY UNTIL MID WEEK.

TEMPS WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FRI NIGHT
AND LOWER 30S SAT...BUT A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 30S FOR LOWS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. MVFR WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE
TO IFR AND LOWER AND BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW
FOCUSING ON COASTAL TERMINALS. INITIALLY...STILL SOME RAIN ACROSS
SOME COASTAL TERMINALS...SOON TO MIX WITH SLEET. THIS WILL CHANGE TO
PURE SNOW...BECOMING MODERATE TO HEAVY THIS MORNING.

PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...TAPERING OFF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW AROUND 8-12 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15-20 KT TODAY.

OVERALL...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH WINDS AND LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH
CATEGORIES WHICH COULD VARY A FEW HOURS WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

EXPECTED RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KHPN/KBDR...3-4 INCHES.
KSWF...1-2 INCHES.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
RUN 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS PREDOMINANT
TODAY.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS...POSSIBLY BECOMING MODERATE LATE TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AS WELL LATE TONIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/10 TO 7/10 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TODAY. THIS
WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE
START OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ007>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...24/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 050933
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
433 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG
A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASS TO THE
NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEP TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL US
GRADUALLY SLIDING TO EAST COAST BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT MOIST SUBTROPICAL PAC MOISTURE PLUME RIDING
INTO THE REGION IS EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF WAVES WILL TRACK NE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT TO THE SOUTH TODAY...TAPPING INTO THIS MOISTURE...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND UNDER INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 200KT UPPER JET.

BIGGEST MODEL DIFFERENCES COMPARED TO 12 TO 24 HOURS AGO WAS SLOWER
COLUMN COOLING EARLY THIS MORNING BY ABOUT 3-4 HOURS...BUT A
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF MOISTURE PLUME THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY MEANING HIGHER QPF. OVERALL THIS IS LENDING TO A FAIRLY
SIMILAR FORECAST OF SNOW AMOUNTS.

PRECIP EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THROUGH 10Z
DOWN TO THE COAST WITH COLUMN COOLING. THE STEADY PROGRESS IS SEEN
IN OBS AND DUAL-POL. ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED FROM NW TO
SE BETWEEN 10Z TO 15Z...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO LOWER TO MID 30S
INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S LATER THIS MORNING...AND DOWN INTO THE LOWER
20S THIS AFTERNOON. ROAD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN
ITS WAKE...AND COINCIDING AT LEAST PART OF MORNING COMMUTE. ICY
CONDITIONS AND SNOW COVERED ROADS EXPECTED FOR AFT/EVE COMMUTE AS
WELL.

POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH MODEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING COUPLED WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS. SREF IS INDICATING
LIKELY PROB OF 1" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES DURING THIS TIME FOR
NYC/NJ METRO AND LI. SBU WRF SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH QPF
BETWEEN 7 AM AND 1 PM ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LI/NYC. SNOW
SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE FROM NW TO SE
THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE
STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

REGION IS ON EDGE OF A TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT. HAVE RELIED ON A
OPER/HIGH RES ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO QPF...WITH GENERALLY A 1/10TH
OR LESS QPF ORANGE COUNTY TO CLOSE TO 7/10 INCH OF QPF ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LI. THE HIGHEST PROB FOR 1/2 INCH LIQUID QPF REMAINS
ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NYC/NJ METRO AND LI. SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...WITH
HEAVY WET SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME LIGHT AND POWDERY BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...A GENERAL 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW STILL
EXPECTED FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND LI...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WARNING CONTINUES HERE. POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 5
INCHES FOR COASTAL CT AND SOUTHEASTERN CT...THE REST OF NE
NJ...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THIS AREA...AND
HAVE EXPANDED ADVISORY INTO NORTHERN MIDDLESEX AND NORTHERN NEW
LONDON BASED ON TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE PLUME AND REPORTS OF UP TO
1/2 INCH THERE ALREADY. FINALLY...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP
ACROSS AREAS FAR N&W OF NYC...BETWEEN DUSTING TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED
FROM NW TO SE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LI COMES TO AND END THIS
EVENING...WITH FRIGID AND BUT DRYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC METRO...ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. WINDCHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SPLIT FLOW THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A FAST ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A BROAD TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL US THROUGH MEXICO. ZONAL
H5 FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT.

OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
40S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT...BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE AREA SAT AND MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT. DOWNSLOPING
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT
BEST LATE SAT NIGHT. THE NAM/GFS ARE INDICATING A WEAK LOW PRES
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. EC IS MUCH WEAKER WITH NO PCPN. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST
AS PCPN REMAINS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE N WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE
PRESENT.

FINAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH MON. GFS IS SLIGHTLY
MORE AMPLIFIED ALOFT WITH THE VORT MAX PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH PCPN DUE TO RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE S.
EC IS FURTHER N. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS.

SW-W FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS AT H5...ALTHOUGH LARGE DIFFERENCES
BECOME PREVALENT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GFS BECOMES MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED WED/THU WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BECOMING PICKED
UP IN THE FLOW AND PASSING NEAR THE AREA WED. EC IS MUCH FLATTER
WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.  REMAINING DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS
POSSIBLY UNTIL MID WEEK.

TEMPS WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FRI NIGHT
AND LOWER 30S SAT...BUT A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 30S FOR LOWS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. MVFR WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE
TO IFR AND LOWER AND BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW
FOCUSING ON COASTAL TERMINALS. INITIALLY...STILL SOME RAIN ACROSS
SOME COASTAL TERMINALS...SOON TO MIX WITH SLEET. THIS WILL CHANGE TO
PURE SNOW...BECOMING MODERATE TO HEAVY THIS MORNING.

PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...TAPERING OFF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW AROUND 8-12 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15-20 KT TODAY.

OVERALL...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH WINDS AND LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH
CATEGORIES WHICH COULD VARY A FEW HOURS WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

EXPECTED RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KHPN/KBDR...3-4 INCHES.
KSWF...1-2 INCHES.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
RUN 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS PREDOMINANT
TODAY.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS...POSSIBLY BECOMING MODERATE LATE TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AS WELL LATE TONIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/10 TO 7/10 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TODAY. THIS
WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE
START OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ007>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...24/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 050933
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
433 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG
A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASS TO THE
NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEP TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL US
GRADUALLY SLIDING TO EAST COAST BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT MOIST SUBTROPICAL PAC MOISTURE PLUME RIDING
INTO THE REGION IS EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF WAVES WILL TRACK NE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT TO THE SOUTH TODAY...TAPPING INTO THIS MOISTURE...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND UNDER INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 200KT UPPER JET.

BIGGEST MODEL DIFFERENCES COMPARED TO 12 TO 24 HOURS AGO WAS SLOWER
COLUMN COOLING EARLY THIS MORNING BY ABOUT 3-4 HOURS...BUT A
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF MOISTURE PLUME THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY MEANING HIGHER QPF. OVERALL THIS IS LENDING TO A FAIRLY
SIMILAR FORECAST OF SNOW AMOUNTS.

PRECIP EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THROUGH 10Z
DOWN TO THE COAST WITH COLUMN COOLING. THE STEADY PROGRESS IS SEEN
IN OBS AND DUAL-POL. ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED FROM NW TO
SE BETWEEN 10Z TO 15Z...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO LOWER TO MID 30S
INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S LATER THIS MORNING...AND DOWN INTO THE LOWER
20S THIS AFTERNOON. ROAD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN
ITS WAKE...AND COINCIDING AT LEAST PART OF MORNING COMMUTE. ICY
CONDITIONS AND SNOW COVERED ROADS EXPECTED FOR AFT/EVE COMMUTE AS
WELL.

POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH MODEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING COUPLED WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS. SREF IS INDICATING
LIKELY PROB OF 1" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES DURING THIS TIME FOR
NYC/NJ METRO AND LI. SBU WRF SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH QPF
BETWEEN 7 AM AND 1 PM ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LI/NYC. SNOW
SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE FROM NW TO SE
THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE
STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

REGION IS ON EDGE OF A TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT. HAVE RELIED ON A
OPER/HIGH RES ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO QPF...WITH GENERALLY A 1/10TH
OR LESS QPF ORANGE COUNTY TO CLOSE TO 7/10 INCH OF QPF ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LI. THE HIGHEST PROB FOR 1/2 INCH LIQUID QPF REMAINS
ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NYC/NJ METRO AND LI. SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...WITH
HEAVY WET SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME LIGHT AND POWDERY BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...A GENERAL 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW STILL
EXPECTED FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND LI...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WARNING CONTINUES HERE. POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 5
INCHES FOR COASTAL CT AND SOUTHEASTERN CT...THE REST OF NE
NJ...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THIS AREA...AND
HAVE EXPANDED ADVISORY INTO NORTHERN MIDDLESEX AND NORTHERN NEW
LONDON BASED ON TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE PLUME AND REPORTS OF UP TO
1/2 INCH THERE ALREADY. FINALLY...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP
ACROSS AREAS FAR N&W OF NYC...BETWEEN DUSTING TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED
FROM NW TO SE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LI COMES TO AND END THIS
EVENING...WITH FRIGID AND BUT DRYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC METRO...ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. WINDCHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SPLIT FLOW THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A FAST ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A BROAD TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL US THROUGH MEXICO. ZONAL
H5 FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT.

OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
40S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT...BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE AREA SAT AND MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT. DOWNSLOPING
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT
BEST LATE SAT NIGHT. THE NAM/GFS ARE INDICATING A WEAK LOW PRES
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. EC IS MUCH WEAKER WITH NO PCPN. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST
AS PCPN REMAINS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE N WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE
PRESENT.

FINAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH MON. GFS IS SLIGHTLY
MORE AMPLIFIED ALOFT WITH THE VORT MAX PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH PCPN DUE TO RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE S.
EC IS FURTHER N. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS.

SW-W FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS AT H5...ALTHOUGH LARGE DIFFERENCES
BECOME PREVALENT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GFS BECOMES MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED WED/THU WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BECOMING PICKED
UP IN THE FLOW AND PASSING NEAR THE AREA WED. EC IS MUCH FLATTER
WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.  REMAINING DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS
POSSIBLY UNTIL MID WEEK.

TEMPS WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FRI NIGHT
AND LOWER 30S SAT...BUT A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 30S FOR LOWS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. MVFR WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE
TO IFR AND LOWER AND BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW
FOCUSING ON COASTAL TERMINALS. INITIALLY...STILL SOME RAIN ACROSS
SOME COASTAL TERMINALS...SOON TO MIX WITH SLEET. THIS WILL CHANGE TO
PURE SNOW...BECOMING MODERATE TO HEAVY THIS MORNING.

PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...TAPERING OFF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW AROUND 8-12 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15-20 KT TODAY.

OVERALL...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH WINDS AND LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH
CATEGORIES WHICH COULD VARY A FEW HOURS WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

EXPECTED RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KHPN/KBDR...3-4 INCHES.
KSWF...1-2 INCHES.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
RUN 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS PREDOMINANT
TODAY.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS...POSSIBLY BECOMING MODERATE LATE TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AS WELL LATE TONIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/10 TO 7/10 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TODAY. THIS
WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE
START OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ007>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...24/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 050933
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
433 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG
A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASS TO THE
NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEP TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL US
GRADUALLY SLIDING TO EAST COAST BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT MOIST SUBTROPICAL PAC MOISTURE PLUME RIDING
INTO THE REGION IS EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF WAVES WILL TRACK NE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT TO THE SOUTH TODAY...TAPPING INTO THIS MOISTURE...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND UNDER INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 200KT UPPER JET.

BIGGEST MODEL DIFFERENCES COMPARED TO 12 TO 24 HOURS AGO WAS SLOWER
COLUMN COOLING EARLY THIS MORNING BY ABOUT 3-4 HOURS...BUT A
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF MOISTURE PLUME THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY MEANING HIGHER QPF. OVERALL THIS IS LENDING TO A FAIRLY
SIMILAR FORECAST OF SNOW AMOUNTS.

PRECIP EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THROUGH 10Z
DOWN TO THE COAST WITH COLUMN COOLING. THE STEADY PROGRESS IS SEEN
IN OBS AND DUAL-POL. ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED FROM NW TO
SE BETWEEN 10Z TO 15Z...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO LOWER TO MID 30S
INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S LATER THIS MORNING...AND DOWN INTO THE LOWER
20S THIS AFTERNOON. ROAD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN
ITS WAKE...AND COINCIDING AT LEAST PART OF MORNING COMMUTE. ICY
CONDITIONS AND SNOW COVERED ROADS EXPECTED FOR AFT/EVE COMMUTE AS
WELL.

POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH MODEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING COUPLED WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS. SREF IS INDICATING
LIKELY PROB OF 1" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES DURING THIS TIME FOR
NYC/NJ METRO AND LI. SBU WRF SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH QPF
BETWEEN 7 AM AND 1 PM ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LI/NYC. SNOW
SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE FROM NW TO SE
THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE
STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

REGION IS ON EDGE OF A TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT. HAVE RELIED ON A
OPER/HIGH RES ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO QPF...WITH GENERALLY A 1/10TH
OR LESS QPF ORANGE COUNTY TO CLOSE TO 7/10 INCH OF QPF ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LI. THE HIGHEST PROB FOR 1/2 INCH LIQUID QPF REMAINS
ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NYC/NJ METRO AND LI. SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...WITH
HEAVY WET SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME LIGHT AND POWDERY BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...A GENERAL 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW STILL
EXPECTED FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND LI...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WARNING CONTINUES HERE. POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 5
INCHES FOR COASTAL CT AND SOUTHEASTERN CT...THE REST OF NE
NJ...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THIS AREA...AND
HAVE EXPANDED ADVISORY INTO NORTHERN MIDDLESEX AND NORTHERN NEW
LONDON BASED ON TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE PLUME AND REPORTS OF UP TO
1/2 INCH THERE ALREADY. FINALLY...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP
ACROSS AREAS FAR N&W OF NYC...BETWEEN DUSTING TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED
FROM NW TO SE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LI COMES TO AND END THIS
EVENING...WITH FRIGID AND BUT DRYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC METRO...ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. WINDCHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SPLIT FLOW THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A FAST ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A BROAD TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL US THROUGH MEXICO. ZONAL
H5 FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT.

OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
40S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT...BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE AREA SAT AND MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT. DOWNSLOPING
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT
BEST LATE SAT NIGHT. THE NAM/GFS ARE INDICATING A WEAK LOW PRES
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. EC IS MUCH WEAKER WITH NO PCPN. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST
AS PCPN REMAINS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE N WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE
PRESENT.

FINAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH MON. GFS IS SLIGHTLY
MORE AMPLIFIED ALOFT WITH THE VORT MAX PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH PCPN DUE TO RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE S.
EC IS FURTHER N. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS.

SW-W FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS AT H5...ALTHOUGH LARGE DIFFERENCES
BECOME PREVALENT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GFS BECOMES MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED WED/THU WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BECOMING PICKED
UP IN THE FLOW AND PASSING NEAR THE AREA WED. EC IS MUCH FLATTER
WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.  REMAINING DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS
POSSIBLY UNTIL MID WEEK.

TEMPS WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FRI NIGHT
AND LOWER 30S SAT...BUT A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 30S FOR LOWS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. MVFR WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE
TO IFR AND LOWER AND BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW
FOCUSING ON COASTAL TERMINALS. INITIALLY...STILL SOME RAIN ACROSS
SOME COASTAL TERMINALS...SOON TO MIX WITH SLEET. THIS WILL CHANGE TO
PURE SNOW...BECOMING MODERATE TO HEAVY THIS MORNING.

PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...TAPERING OFF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW AROUND 8-12 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15-20 KT TODAY.

OVERALL...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH WINDS AND LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH
CATEGORIES WHICH COULD VARY A FEW HOURS WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

EXPECTED RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KHPN/KBDR...3-4 INCHES.
KSWF...1-2 INCHES.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
RUN 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS PREDOMINANT
TODAY.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS...POSSIBLY BECOMING MODERATE LATE TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AS WELL LATE TONIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/10 TO 7/10 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TODAY. THIS
WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE
START OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ007>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...24/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 050603 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1259 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PCPN HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH A STEADY RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SW...IMPACTING MOST AREAS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR INTERIOR OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND SRN CT. DUAL POL RADAR DATA SHOWS A MIXED PCPN PHASE AT ABOUT
4000 TO 5000 FT. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF VERTICAL
COOLING BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS. COLD FRONT REMAINS
JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. 00Z NAM WRF HAS TRENDED A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD AIR WORKING IN WHICH MAY DELAY THE
CHANGEOVER AN HOUR OR TWO.

SEVERAL WAVES WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY A VERY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL JET...BETWEEN 200 AND 215
KT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
THIS JET. TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALSO SETS UP AS COLD AIR FILTERS
IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO A RAIN...SLEET..AND SNOW MIX
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INITIALLY OVERNIGHT. FEEL THE ENTIRE
AREA WILL BE ALL SNOW BY 07-08Z. SNOW...MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
HEAVY AT TIMES...IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER ACROSS
THE INTERIOR ZONES AS THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. THE SNOW BEGINS TO
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OVERALL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS..EURO...CMC...CMC REGIONAL...UKMET...GEFS...AND SREF ALL
INDICATE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES FROM JUST
AFTER 06Z TO AROUND 18Z THURSDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER
AS IT SUPPRESSES MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH OF THE REGION AFTER 12Z.
THE 18Z NAM DID SHIFT THE AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTH HOWEVER
COMPARED TO ITS 12Z RUN. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTS SNOW
CONTINUING LONGER THAN THE NAM IS SHOWING AND THIS THINKING IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE FIRST PORTION OF
THE SNOW WILL SEE LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...BUT AS THE COLUMN
COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY THURS MORNING...EXPECT RATIOS TO INCREASE
A BIT.

DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE ADDED MANHATTAN...BRONX...HUDSON...
AND EASTERN ESSEX INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING...AND REPLACED THE
REST OF THE WATCH WITH ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT NORTHERN NEW LONDON
WHERE NO HEADLINE IS IN EFFECT. ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER
INTO AN ADVISORY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE
WARNING AND 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST INCLUDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IF ANY NORTH SHIFT
NORTH OCCURS...TOTALS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. ON THE
OTHER HAND...IF A SOUTH SHIFT OCCURS...TOTALS COULD END UP LOWER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY BELOW
FREEZING BEFORE 08Z. EXPECT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE RIGHT OVER US ON FRIDAY...AND IT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CANADIAN ORIGINS...AND WITH PLENTY OF
SNOWPACK TO THE WEST...IT WON`T HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO MODERATE
BEFORE IT ARRIVES HERE. AFTER A RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD COLD
START...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE MID 20S...ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A FAST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF WEAK
FRONTS/TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH HERE. THIS RELATIVELY FLAT FLOW WILL
AT LEAST KEEP THE ABNORMALLY COLD AIR WE`VE BEEN EXPERIENCING LOCKED
UP TO OUR NORTH. SO WITH THE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES...WILL GO CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS KEEPS
MOST OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE CITY SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE BETTER AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THE
ONLY OTHER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE
WITH IT...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. PCPN TYPE
MOST LIKELY SNOW TO START...THEN MIXING WITH RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE VERY COLD AIR STAYING NORTH...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE FROM THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY TO
THE UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE AS LOW PRES
TRACKS FROM THE GULF COAST AND MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CONDS EXPECTED IN RAIN
AND FOG.

BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS AND GUIDANCE...THE COLD AIR IS TAKING A BIT
LONGER TO ARRIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE TRANSITION TO THE
WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR FROM 07-09Z...AND THEN THE TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER 09Z. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE CHANGEOVER
MAY TAKE PLACE AN HOUR OR 2 LATER THAN THIS.

MODERATE SNOW THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF
LATE IN THE DAY. IFR/LIFR CONDS IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW...GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO VFR LATE.

EXPECTED RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS:
KJFK/KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KHPN/KBDR/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KSWF...2-3 INCHES.

W-NW AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND THEN NW WINDS INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY DAYBREAK. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO
10 KT OR LESS LATE IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
THE REMAINING WATERS BELOW SCA THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS ARE
MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN WATERS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WHEN THEY
LIKELY STAY BELOW. SEAS HOWEVER WILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS. WINDS
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT SO THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER.

A PERIOD OF SUB SCA CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH
THE WATERS. THE RETURN SW FLOW INCREASES ON SATURDAY...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN DURING THE MORNING AND LASTING
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE FEATURES
THEREAFTER THROUGH MONDAY WILL PROMOTE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. HAVE
GONE BELOW WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SOME OF THIS PERIOD AS IT
APPEARS TO BUILDING TOO MUCH SWELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ009>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS










000
FXUS61 KOKX 050603 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1259 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PCPN HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH A STEADY RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SW...IMPACTING MOST AREAS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR INTERIOR OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND SRN CT. DUAL POL RADAR DATA SHOWS A MIXED PCPN PHASE AT ABOUT
4000 TO 5000 FT. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF VERTICAL
COOLING BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS. COLD FRONT REMAINS
JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. 00Z NAM WRF HAS TRENDED A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD AIR WORKING IN WHICH MAY DELAY THE
CHANGEOVER AN HOUR OR TWO.

SEVERAL WAVES WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY A VERY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL JET...BETWEEN 200 AND 215
KT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
THIS JET. TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALSO SETS UP AS COLD AIR FILTERS
IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO A RAIN...SLEET..AND SNOW MIX
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INITIALLY OVERNIGHT. FEEL THE ENTIRE
AREA WILL BE ALL SNOW BY 07-08Z. SNOW...MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
HEAVY AT TIMES...IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER ACROSS
THE INTERIOR ZONES AS THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. THE SNOW BEGINS TO
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OVERALL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS..EURO...CMC...CMC REGIONAL...UKMET...GEFS...AND SREF ALL
INDICATE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES FROM JUST
AFTER 06Z TO AROUND 18Z THURSDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER
AS IT SUPPRESSES MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH OF THE REGION AFTER 12Z.
THE 18Z NAM DID SHIFT THE AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTH HOWEVER
COMPARED TO ITS 12Z RUN. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTS SNOW
CONTINUING LONGER THAN THE NAM IS SHOWING AND THIS THINKING IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE FIRST PORTION OF
THE SNOW WILL SEE LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...BUT AS THE COLUMN
COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY THURS MORNING...EXPECT RATIOS TO INCREASE
A BIT.

DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE ADDED MANHATTAN...BRONX...HUDSON...
AND EASTERN ESSEX INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING...AND REPLACED THE
REST OF THE WATCH WITH ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT NORTHERN NEW LONDON
WHERE NO HEADLINE IS IN EFFECT. ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER
INTO AN ADVISORY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE
WARNING AND 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST INCLUDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IF ANY NORTH SHIFT
NORTH OCCURS...TOTALS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. ON THE
OTHER HAND...IF A SOUTH SHIFT OCCURS...TOTALS COULD END UP LOWER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY BELOW
FREEZING BEFORE 08Z. EXPECT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE RIGHT OVER US ON FRIDAY...AND IT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CANADIAN ORIGINS...AND WITH PLENTY OF
SNOWPACK TO THE WEST...IT WON`T HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO MODERATE
BEFORE IT ARRIVES HERE. AFTER A RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD COLD
START...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE MID 20S...ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A FAST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF WEAK
FRONTS/TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH HERE. THIS RELATIVELY FLAT FLOW WILL
AT LEAST KEEP THE ABNORMALLY COLD AIR WE`VE BEEN EXPERIENCING LOCKED
UP TO OUR NORTH. SO WITH THE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES...WILL GO CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS KEEPS
MOST OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE CITY SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE BETTER AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THE
ONLY OTHER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE
WITH IT...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. PCPN TYPE
MOST LIKELY SNOW TO START...THEN MIXING WITH RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE VERY COLD AIR STAYING NORTH...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE FROM THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY TO
THE UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE AS LOW PRES
TRACKS FROM THE GULF COAST AND MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CONDS EXPECTED IN RAIN
AND FOG.

BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS AND GUIDANCE...THE COLD AIR IS TAKING A BIT
LONGER TO ARRIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE TRANSITION TO THE
WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR FROM 07-09Z...AND THEN THE TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER 09Z. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE CHANGEOVER
MAY TAKE PLACE AN HOUR OR 2 LATER THAN THIS.

MODERATE SNOW THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF
LATE IN THE DAY. IFR/LIFR CONDS IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW...GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO VFR LATE.

EXPECTED RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS:
KJFK/KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KHPN/KBDR/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KSWF...2-3 INCHES.

W-NW AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND THEN NW WINDS INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY DAYBREAK. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO
10 KT OR LESS LATE IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
THE REMAINING WATERS BELOW SCA THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS ARE
MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN WATERS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WHEN THEY
LIKELY STAY BELOW. SEAS HOWEVER WILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS. WINDS
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT SO THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER.

A PERIOD OF SUB SCA CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH
THE WATERS. THE RETURN SW FLOW INCREASES ON SATURDAY...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN DURING THE MORNING AND LASTING
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE FEATURES
THEREAFTER THROUGH MONDAY WILL PROMOTE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. HAVE
GONE BELOW WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SOME OF THIS PERIOD AS IT
APPEARS TO BUILDING TOO MUCH SWELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ009>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 050603 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1259 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PCPN HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH A STEADY RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SW...IMPACTING MOST AREAS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR INTERIOR OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND SRN CT. DUAL POL RADAR DATA SHOWS A MIXED PCPN PHASE AT ABOUT
4000 TO 5000 FT. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF VERTICAL
COOLING BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS. COLD FRONT REMAINS
JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. 00Z NAM WRF HAS TRENDED A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD AIR WORKING IN WHICH MAY DELAY THE
CHANGEOVER AN HOUR OR TWO.

SEVERAL WAVES WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY A VERY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL JET...BETWEEN 200 AND 215
KT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
THIS JET. TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALSO SETS UP AS COLD AIR FILTERS
IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO A RAIN...SLEET..AND SNOW MIX
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INITIALLY OVERNIGHT. FEEL THE ENTIRE
AREA WILL BE ALL SNOW BY 07-08Z. SNOW...MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
HEAVY AT TIMES...IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER ACROSS
THE INTERIOR ZONES AS THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. THE SNOW BEGINS TO
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OVERALL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS..EURO...CMC...CMC REGIONAL...UKMET...GEFS...AND SREF ALL
INDICATE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES FROM JUST
AFTER 06Z TO AROUND 18Z THURSDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER
AS IT SUPPRESSES MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH OF THE REGION AFTER 12Z.
THE 18Z NAM DID SHIFT THE AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTH HOWEVER
COMPARED TO ITS 12Z RUN. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTS SNOW
CONTINUING LONGER THAN THE NAM IS SHOWING AND THIS THINKING IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE FIRST PORTION OF
THE SNOW WILL SEE LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...BUT AS THE COLUMN
COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY THURS MORNING...EXPECT RATIOS TO INCREASE
A BIT.

DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE ADDED MANHATTAN...BRONX...HUDSON...
AND EASTERN ESSEX INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING...AND REPLACED THE
REST OF THE WATCH WITH ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT NORTHERN NEW LONDON
WHERE NO HEADLINE IS IN EFFECT. ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER
INTO AN ADVISORY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE
WARNING AND 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST INCLUDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IF ANY NORTH SHIFT
NORTH OCCURS...TOTALS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. ON THE
OTHER HAND...IF A SOUTH SHIFT OCCURS...TOTALS COULD END UP LOWER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY BELOW
FREEZING BEFORE 08Z. EXPECT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE RIGHT OVER US ON FRIDAY...AND IT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CANADIAN ORIGINS...AND WITH PLENTY OF
SNOWPACK TO THE WEST...IT WON`T HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO MODERATE
BEFORE IT ARRIVES HERE. AFTER A RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD COLD
START...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE MID 20S...ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A FAST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF WEAK
FRONTS/TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH HERE. THIS RELATIVELY FLAT FLOW WILL
AT LEAST KEEP THE ABNORMALLY COLD AIR WE`VE BEEN EXPERIENCING LOCKED
UP TO OUR NORTH. SO WITH THE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES...WILL GO CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS KEEPS
MOST OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE CITY SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE BETTER AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THE
ONLY OTHER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE
WITH IT...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. PCPN TYPE
MOST LIKELY SNOW TO START...THEN MIXING WITH RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE VERY COLD AIR STAYING NORTH...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE FROM THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY TO
THE UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE AS LOW PRES
TRACKS FROM THE GULF COAST AND MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CONDS EXPECTED IN RAIN
AND FOG.

BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS AND GUIDANCE...THE COLD AIR IS TAKING A BIT
LONGER TO ARRIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE TRANSITION TO THE
WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR FROM 07-09Z...AND THEN THE TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER 09Z. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE CHANGEOVER
MAY TAKE PLACE AN HOUR OR 2 LATER THAN THIS.

MODERATE SNOW THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF
LATE IN THE DAY. IFR/LIFR CONDS IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW...GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO VFR LATE.

EXPECTED RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS:
KJFK/KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KHPN/KBDR/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KSWF...2-3 INCHES.

W-NW AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND THEN NW WINDS INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY DAYBREAK. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO
10 KT OR LESS LATE IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
THE REMAINING WATERS BELOW SCA THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS ARE
MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN WATERS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WHEN THEY
LIKELY STAY BELOW. SEAS HOWEVER WILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS. WINDS
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT SO THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER.

A PERIOD OF SUB SCA CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH
THE WATERS. THE RETURN SW FLOW INCREASES ON SATURDAY...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN DURING THE MORNING AND LASTING
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE FEATURES
THEREAFTER THROUGH MONDAY WILL PROMOTE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. HAVE
GONE BELOW WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SOME OF THIS PERIOD AS IT
APPEARS TO BUILDING TOO MUCH SWELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ009>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 050603 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1259 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PCPN HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH A STEADY RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SW...IMPACTING MOST AREAS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR INTERIOR OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND SRN CT. DUAL POL RADAR DATA SHOWS A MIXED PCPN PHASE AT ABOUT
4000 TO 5000 FT. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF VERTICAL
COOLING BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS. COLD FRONT REMAINS
JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. 00Z NAM WRF HAS TRENDED A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD AIR WORKING IN WHICH MAY DELAY THE
CHANGEOVER AN HOUR OR TWO.

SEVERAL WAVES WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY A VERY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL JET...BETWEEN 200 AND 215
KT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
THIS JET. TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALSO SETS UP AS COLD AIR FILTERS
IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO A RAIN...SLEET..AND SNOW MIX
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INITIALLY OVERNIGHT. FEEL THE ENTIRE
AREA WILL BE ALL SNOW BY 07-08Z. SNOW...MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
HEAVY AT TIMES...IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER ACROSS
THE INTERIOR ZONES AS THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. THE SNOW BEGINS TO
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OVERALL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS..EURO...CMC...CMC REGIONAL...UKMET...GEFS...AND SREF ALL
INDICATE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES FROM JUST
AFTER 06Z TO AROUND 18Z THURSDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER
AS IT SUPPRESSES MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH OF THE REGION AFTER 12Z.
THE 18Z NAM DID SHIFT THE AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTH HOWEVER
COMPARED TO ITS 12Z RUN. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTS SNOW
CONTINUING LONGER THAN THE NAM IS SHOWING AND THIS THINKING IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE FIRST PORTION OF
THE SNOW WILL SEE LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...BUT AS THE COLUMN
COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY THURS MORNING...EXPECT RATIOS TO INCREASE
A BIT.

DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE ADDED MANHATTAN...BRONX...HUDSON...
AND EASTERN ESSEX INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING...AND REPLACED THE
REST OF THE WATCH WITH ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT NORTHERN NEW LONDON
WHERE NO HEADLINE IS IN EFFECT. ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER
INTO AN ADVISORY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE
WARNING AND 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST INCLUDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IF ANY NORTH SHIFT
NORTH OCCURS...TOTALS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. ON THE
OTHER HAND...IF A SOUTH SHIFT OCCURS...TOTALS COULD END UP LOWER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY BELOW
FREEZING BEFORE 08Z. EXPECT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE RIGHT OVER US ON FRIDAY...AND IT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CANADIAN ORIGINS...AND WITH PLENTY OF
SNOWPACK TO THE WEST...IT WON`T HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO MODERATE
BEFORE IT ARRIVES HERE. AFTER A RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD COLD
START...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE MID 20S...ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A FAST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF WEAK
FRONTS/TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH HERE. THIS RELATIVELY FLAT FLOW WILL
AT LEAST KEEP THE ABNORMALLY COLD AIR WE`VE BEEN EXPERIENCING LOCKED
UP TO OUR NORTH. SO WITH THE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES...WILL GO CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS KEEPS
MOST OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE CITY SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE BETTER AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THE
ONLY OTHER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE
WITH IT...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. PCPN TYPE
MOST LIKELY SNOW TO START...THEN MIXING WITH RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE VERY COLD AIR STAYING NORTH...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE FROM THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY TO
THE UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE AS LOW PRES
TRACKS FROM THE GULF COAST AND MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CONDS EXPECTED IN RAIN
AND FOG.

BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS AND GUIDANCE...THE COLD AIR IS TAKING A BIT
LONGER TO ARRIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE TRANSITION TO THE
WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR FROM 07-09Z...AND THEN THE TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER 09Z. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE CHANGEOVER
MAY TAKE PLACE AN HOUR OR 2 LATER THAN THIS.

MODERATE SNOW THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF
LATE IN THE DAY. IFR/LIFR CONDS IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW...GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO VFR LATE.

EXPECTED RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS:
KJFK/KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KHPN/KBDR/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KSWF...2-3 INCHES.

W-NW AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND THEN NW WINDS INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY DAYBREAK. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO
10 KT OR LESS LATE IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
THE REMAINING WATERS BELOW SCA THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS ARE
MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN WATERS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WHEN THEY
LIKELY STAY BELOW. SEAS HOWEVER WILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS. WINDS
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT SO THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER.

A PERIOD OF SUB SCA CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH
THE WATERS. THE RETURN SW FLOW INCREASES ON SATURDAY...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN DURING THE MORNING AND LASTING
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE FEATURES
THEREAFTER THROUGH MONDAY WILL PROMOTE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. HAVE
GONE BELOW WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SOME OF THIS PERIOD AS IT
APPEARS TO BUILDING TOO MUCH SWELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ009>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS










000
FXUS61 KOKX 050551
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1251 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PCPN HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH A STEADY RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SW...IMPACTING MOST AREAS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR INTERIOR OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND SRN CT. DUAL POL RADAR DATA SHOWS A MIXED PCPN PHASE AT ABOUT
4000 TO 5000 FT. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF VERTICAL
COOLING BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS. COLD FRONT REMAINS
JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. 00Z NAM WRF HAS TRENDED A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD AIR WORKING IN WHICH MAY DELAY THE
CHANGEOVER AN HOUR OR TWO.

SEVERAL WAVES WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY A VERY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL JET...BETWEEN 200 AND 215
KT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
THIS JET. TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALSO SETS UP AS COLD AIR FILTERS
IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THIS EVENING TO BE IN THE FORM
OF PLAIN RAIN. AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO A RAIN...SLEET..AND
SNOW MIX FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING. FEEL THE
ENTIRE AREA WILL BE ALL SNOW BY OR JUST AFTER 06Z. SNOW...MODERATE
TO POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ZONES AS THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT WILL
RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. THE SNOW BEGINS
TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OVERALL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS..EURO...CMC...CMC REGIONAL...UKMET...GEFS...AND SREF ALL
INDICATE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES FROM JUST
AFTER 06Z TO AROUND 18Z THURSDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER
AS IT SUPPRESSES MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH OF THE REGION AFTER 12Z.
THE 18Z NAM DID SHIFT THE AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTH HOWEVER
COMPARED TO ITS 12Z RUN. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTS SNOW
CONTINUING LONGER THAN THE NAM IS SHOWING AND THIS THINKING IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE FIRST PORTION OF
THE SNOW WILL SEE LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...BUT AS THE COLUMN
COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY THURS MORNING...EXPECT RATIOS TO INCREASE
A BIT.

DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE ADDED MANHATTAN...BRONX...HUDSON...
AND EASTERN ESSEX INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING...AND REPLACED THE
REST OF THE WATCH WITH ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT NORTHERN NEW LONDON
WHERE NO HEADLINE IS IN EFFECT. ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER
INTO AN ADVISORY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE
WARNING AND 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST INCLUDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IF ANY NORTH SHIFT
NORTH OCCURS...TOTALS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. ON THE
OTHER HAND...IF A SOUTH SHIFT OCCURS...TOTALS COULD END UP LOWER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS EVENING INTO THE 30S AND THEN
BELOW FREEZING AFTER 06Z. EXPECT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE RIGHT OVER US ON FRIDAY...AND IT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CANADIAN ORIGINS...AND WITH PLENTY OF
SNOWPACK TO THE WEST...IT WON`T HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO MODERATE
BEFORE IT ARRIVES HERE. AFTER A RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD COLD
START...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE MID 20S...ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A FAST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF WEAK
FRONTS/TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH HERE. THIS RELATIVELY FLAT FLOW WILL
AT LEAST KEEP THE ABNORMALLY COLD AIR WE`VE BEEN EXPERIENCING LOCKED
UP TO OUR NORTH. SO WITH THE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES...WILL GO CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS KEEPS
MOST OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE CITY SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE BETTER AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THE
ONLY OTHER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE
WITH IT...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. PCPN TYPE
MOST LIKELY SNOW TO START...THEN MIXING WITH RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE VERY COLD AIR STAYING NORTH...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE FROM THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY TO
THE UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE AS LOW PRES
TRACKS FROM THE GULF COAST AND MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CONDS EXPECTED IN RAIN
AND FOG.

BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS AND GUIDANCE...THE COLD AIR IS TAKING A BIT
LONGER TO ARRIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE TRANSITION TO THE
WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR FROM 07-09Z...AND THEN THE TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER 09Z. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE CHANGEOVER
MAY TAKE PLACE AN HOUR OR 2 LATER THAN THIS.

MODERATE SNOW THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF
LATE IN THE DAY. IFR/LIFR CONDS IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW...GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO VFR LATE.

EXPECTED RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS:
KJFK/KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KHPN/KBDR/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KSWF...2-3 INCHES.

W-NW AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND THEN NW WINDS INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY DAYBREAK. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO
10 KT OR LESS LATE IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
THE REMAINING WATERS BELOW SCA THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS ARE
MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN WATERS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WHEN THEY
LIKELY STAY BELOW. SEAS HOWEVER WILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS. WINDS
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT SO THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER.

A PERIOD OF SUB SCA CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH
THE WATERS. THE RETURN SW FLOW INCREASES ON SATURDAY...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN DURING THE MORNING AND LASTING
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE FEATURES
THEREAFTER THROUGH MONDAY WILL PROMOTE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. HAVE
GONE BELOW WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SOME OF THIS PERIOD AS IT
APPEARS TO BUILDING TOO MUCH SWELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ009>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 050551
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1251 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PCPN HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH A STEADY RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SW...IMPACTING MOST AREAS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR INTERIOR OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND SRN CT. DUAL POL RADAR DATA SHOWS A MIXED PCPN PHASE AT ABOUT
4000 TO 5000 FT. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF VERTICAL
COOLING BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS. COLD FRONT REMAINS
JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. 00Z NAM WRF HAS TRENDED A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD AIR WORKING IN WHICH MAY DELAY THE
CHANGEOVER AN HOUR OR TWO.

SEVERAL WAVES WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY A VERY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL JET...BETWEEN 200 AND 215
KT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
THIS JET. TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALSO SETS UP AS COLD AIR FILTERS
IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THIS EVENING TO BE IN THE FORM
OF PLAIN RAIN. AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO A RAIN...SLEET..AND
SNOW MIX FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING. FEEL THE
ENTIRE AREA WILL BE ALL SNOW BY OR JUST AFTER 06Z. SNOW...MODERATE
TO POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ZONES AS THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT WILL
RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. THE SNOW BEGINS
TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OVERALL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS..EURO...CMC...CMC REGIONAL...UKMET...GEFS...AND SREF ALL
INDICATE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES FROM JUST
AFTER 06Z TO AROUND 18Z THURSDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER
AS IT SUPPRESSES MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH OF THE REGION AFTER 12Z.
THE 18Z NAM DID SHIFT THE AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTH HOWEVER
COMPARED TO ITS 12Z RUN. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTS SNOW
CONTINUING LONGER THAN THE NAM IS SHOWING AND THIS THINKING IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE FIRST PORTION OF
THE SNOW WILL SEE LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...BUT AS THE COLUMN
COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY THURS MORNING...EXPECT RATIOS TO INCREASE
A BIT.

DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE ADDED MANHATTAN...BRONX...HUDSON...
AND EASTERN ESSEX INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING...AND REPLACED THE
REST OF THE WATCH WITH ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT NORTHERN NEW LONDON
WHERE NO HEADLINE IS IN EFFECT. ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER
INTO AN ADVISORY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE
WARNING AND 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST INCLUDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IF ANY NORTH SHIFT
NORTH OCCURS...TOTALS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. ON THE
OTHER HAND...IF A SOUTH SHIFT OCCURS...TOTALS COULD END UP LOWER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS EVENING INTO THE 30S AND THEN
BELOW FREEZING AFTER 06Z. EXPECT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE RIGHT OVER US ON FRIDAY...AND IT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CANADIAN ORIGINS...AND WITH PLENTY OF
SNOWPACK TO THE WEST...IT WON`T HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO MODERATE
BEFORE IT ARRIVES HERE. AFTER A RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD COLD
START...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE MID 20S...ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A FAST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF WEAK
FRONTS/TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH HERE. THIS RELATIVELY FLAT FLOW WILL
AT LEAST KEEP THE ABNORMALLY COLD AIR WE`VE BEEN EXPERIENCING LOCKED
UP TO OUR NORTH. SO WITH THE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES...WILL GO CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS KEEPS
MOST OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE CITY SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE BETTER AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THE
ONLY OTHER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE
WITH IT...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. PCPN TYPE
MOST LIKELY SNOW TO START...THEN MIXING WITH RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE VERY COLD AIR STAYING NORTH...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE FROM THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY TO
THE UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE AS LOW PRES
TRACKS FROM THE GULF COAST AND MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CONDS EXPECTED IN RAIN
AND FOG.

BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS AND GUIDANCE...THE COLD AIR IS TAKING A BIT
LONGER TO ARRIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE TRANSITION TO THE
WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR FROM 07-09Z...AND THEN THE TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER 09Z. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE CHANGEOVER
MAY TAKE PLACE AN HOUR OR 2 LATER THAN THIS.

MODERATE SNOW THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF
LATE IN THE DAY. IFR/LIFR CONDS IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW...GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO VFR LATE.

EXPECTED RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS:
KJFK/KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KHPN/KBDR/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KSWF...2-3 INCHES.

W-NW AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND THEN NW WINDS INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY DAYBREAK. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO
10 KT OR LESS LATE IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
THE REMAINING WATERS BELOW SCA THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS ARE
MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN WATERS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WHEN THEY
LIKELY STAY BELOW. SEAS HOWEVER WILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS. WINDS
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT SO THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER.

A PERIOD OF SUB SCA CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH
THE WATERS. THE RETURN SW FLOW INCREASES ON SATURDAY...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN DURING THE MORNING AND LASTING
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE FEATURES
THEREAFTER THROUGH MONDAY WILL PROMOTE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. HAVE
GONE BELOW WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SOME OF THIS PERIOD AS IT
APPEARS TO BUILDING TOO MUCH SWELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ009>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS







000
FXUS61 KOKX 050551
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1251 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PCPN HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH A STEADY RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SW...IMPACTING MOST AREAS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR INTERIOR OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND SRN CT. DUAL POL RADAR DATA SHOWS A MIXED PCPN PHASE AT ABOUT
4000 TO 5000 FT. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF VERTICAL
COOLING BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS. COLD FRONT REMAINS
JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. 00Z NAM WRF HAS TRENDED A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD AIR WORKING IN WHICH MAY DELAY THE
CHANGEOVER AN HOUR OR TWO.

SEVERAL WAVES WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY A VERY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL JET...BETWEEN 200 AND 215
KT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
THIS JET. TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALSO SETS UP AS COLD AIR FILTERS
IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THIS EVENING TO BE IN THE FORM
OF PLAIN RAIN. AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO A RAIN...SLEET..AND
SNOW MIX FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING. FEEL THE
ENTIRE AREA WILL BE ALL SNOW BY OR JUST AFTER 06Z. SNOW...MODERATE
TO POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ZONES AS THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT WILL
RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. THE SNOW BEGINS
TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OVERALL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS..EURO...CMC...CMC REGIONAL...UKMET...GEFS...AND SREF ALL
INDICATE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES FROM JUST
AFTER 06Z TO AROUND 18Z THURSDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER
AS IT SUPPRESSES MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH OF THE REGION AFTER 12Z.
THE 18Z NAM DID SHIFT THE AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTH HOWEVER
COMPARED TO ITS 12Z RUN. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTS SNOW
CONTINUING LONGER THAN THE NAM IS SHOWING AND THIS THINKING IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE FIRST PORTION OF
THE SNOW WILL SEE LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...BUT AS THE COLUMN
COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY THURS MORNING...EXPECT RATIOS TO INCREASE
A BIT.

DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE ADDED MANHATTAN...BRONX...HUDSON...
AND EASTERN ESSEX INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING...AND REPLACED THE
REST OF THE WATCH WITH ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT NORTHERN NEW LONDON
WHERE NO HEADLINE IS IN EFFECT. ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER
INTO AN ADVISORY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE
WARNING AND 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST INCLUDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IF ANY NORTH SHIFT
NORTH OCCURS...TOTALS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. ON THE
OTHER HAND...IF A SOUTH SHIFT OCCURS...TOTALS COULD END UP LOWER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS EVENING INTO THE 30S AND THEN
BELOW FREEZING AFTER 06Z. EXPECT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE RIGHT OVER US ON FRIDAY...AND IT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CANADIAN ORIGINS...AND WITH PLENTY OF
SNOWPACK TO THE WEST...IT WON`T HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO MODERATE
BEFORE IT ARRIVES HERE. AFTER A RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD COLD
START...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE MID 20S...ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A FAST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF WEAK
FRONTS/TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH HERE. THIS RELATIVELY FLAT FLOW WILL
AT LEAST KEEP THE ABNORMALLY COLD AIR WE`VE BEEN EXPERIENCING LOCKED
UP TO OUR NORTH. SO WITH THE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES...WILL GO CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS KEEPS
MOST OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE CITY SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE BETTER AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THE
ONLY OTHER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE
WITH IT...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. PCPN TYPE
MOST LIKELY SNOW TO START...THEN MIXING WITH RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE VERY COLD AIR STAYING NORTH...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE FROM THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY TO
THE UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE AS LOW PRES
TRACKS FROM THE GULF COAST AND MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CONDS EXPECTED IN RAIN
AND FOG.

BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS AND GUIDANCE...THE COLD AIR IS TAKING A BIT
LONGER TO ARRIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE TRANSITION TO THE
WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR FROM 07-09Z...AND THEN THE TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER 09Z. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE CHANGEOVER
MAY TAKE PLACE AN HOUR OR 2 LATER THAN THIS.

MODERATE SNOW THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF
LATE IN THE DAY. IFR/LIFR CONDS IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW...GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO VFR LATE.

EXPECTED RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS:
KJFK/KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KHPN/KBDR/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KSWF...2-3 INCHES.

W-NW AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND THEN NW WINDS INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY DAYBREAK. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO
10 KT OR LESS LATE IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
THE REMAINING WATERS BELOW SCA THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS ARE
MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN WATERS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WHEN THEY
LIKELY STAY BELOW. SEAS HOWEVER WILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS. WINDS
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT SO THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER.

A PERIOD OF SUB SCA CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH
THE WATERS. THE RETURN SW FLOW INCREASES ON SATURDAY...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN DURING THE MORNING AND LASTING
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE FEATURES
THEREAFTER THROUGH MONDAY WILL PROMOTE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. HAVE
GONE BELOW WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SOME OF THIS PERIOD AS IT
APPEARS TO BUILDING TOO MUCH SWELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ009>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 050551
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1251 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PCPN HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH A STEADY RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SW...IMPACTING MOST AREAS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR INTERIOR OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND SRN CT. DUAL POL RADAR DATA SHOWS A MIXED PCPN PHASE AT ABOUT
4000 TO 5000 FT. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF VERTICAL
COOLING BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS. COLD FRONT REMAINS
JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. 00Z NAM WRF HAS TRENDED A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD AIR WORKING IN WHICH MAY DELAY THE
CHANGEOVER AN HOUR OR TWO.

SEVERAL WAVES WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY A VERY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL JET...BETWEEN 200 AND 215
KT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
THIS JET. TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALSO SETS UP AS COLD AIR FILTERS
IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THIS EVENING TO BE IN THE FORM
OF PLAIN RAIN. AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO A RAIN...SLEET..AND
SNOW MIX FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING. FEEL THE
ENTIRE AREA WILL BE ALL SNOW BY OR JUST AFTER 06Z. SNOW...MODERATE
TO POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ZONES AS THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT WILL
RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. THE SNOW BEGINS
TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OVERALL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS..EURO...CMC...CMC REGIONAL...UKMET...GEFS...AND SREF ALL
INDICATE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES FROM JUST
AFTER 06Z TO AROUND 18Z THURSDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER
AS IT SUPPRESSES MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH OF THE REGION AFTER 12Z.
THE 18Z NAM DID SHIFT THE AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTH HOWEVER
COMPARED TO ITS 12Z RUN. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTS SNOW
CONTINUING LONGER THAN THE NAM IS SHOWING AND THIS THINKING IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE FIRST PORTION OF
THE SNOW WILL SEE LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...BUT AS THE COLUMN
COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY THURS MORNING...EXPECT RATIOS TO INCREASE
A BIT.

DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE ADDED MANHATTAN...BRONX...HUDSON...
AND EASTERN ESSEX INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING...AND REPLACED THE
REST OF THE WATCH WITH ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT NORTHERN NEW LONDON
WHERE NO HEADLINE IS IN EFFECT. ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER
INTO AN ADVISORY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE
WARNING AND 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST INCLUDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IF ANY NORTH SHIFT
NORTH OCCURS...TOTALS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. ON THE
OTHER HAND...IF A SOUTH SHIFT OCCURS...TOTALS COULD END UP LOWER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS EVENING INTO THE 30S AND THEN
BELOW FREEZING AFTER 06Z. EXPECT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE RIGHT OVER US ON FRIDAY...AND IT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CANADIAN ORIGINS...AND WITH PLENTY OF
SNOWPACK TO THE WEST...IT WON`T HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO MODERATE
BEFORE IT ARRIVES HERE. AFTER A RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD COLD
START...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE MID 20S...ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A FAST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF WEAK
FRONTS/TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH HERE. THIS RELATIVELY FLAT FLOW WILL
AT LEAST KEEP THE ABNORMALLY COLD AIR WE`VE BEEN EXPERIENCING LOCKED
UP TO OUR NORTH. SO WITH THE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES...WILL GO CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS KEEPS
MOST OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE CITY SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE BETTER AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THE
ONLY OTHER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE
WITH IT...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. PCPN TYPE
MOST LIKELY SNOW TO START...THEN MIXING WITH RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE VERY COLD AIR STAYING NORTH...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE FROM THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY TO
THE UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE AS LOW PRES
TRACKS FROM THE GULF COAST AND MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CONDS EXPECTED IN RAIN
AND FOG.

BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS AND GUIDANCE...THE COLD AIR IS TAKING A BIT
LONGER TO ARRIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE TRANSITION TO THE
WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR FROM 07-09Z...AND THEN THE TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER 09Z. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE CHANGEOVER
MAY TAKE PLACE AN HOUR OR 2 LATER THAN THIS.

MODERATE SNOW THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF
LATE IN THE DAY. IFR/LIFR CONDS IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW...GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO VFR LATE.

EXPECTED RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS:
KJFK/KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KHPN/KBDR/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KSWF...2-3 INCHES.

W-NW AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND THEN NW WINDS INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY DAYBREAK. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO
10 KT OR LESS LATE IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
THE REMAINING WATERS BELOW SCA THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS ARE
MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN WATERS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WHEN THEY
LIKELY STAY BELOW. SEAS HOWEVER WILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS. WINDS
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT SO THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER.

A PERIOD OF SUB SCA CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH
THE WATERS. THE RETURN SW FLOW INCREASES ON SATURDAY...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN DURING THE MORNING AND LASTING
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE FEATURES
THEREAFTER THROUGH MONDAY WILL PROMOTE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. HAVE
GONE BELOW WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SOME OF THIS PERIOD AS IT
APPEARS TO BUILDING TOO MUCH SWELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ009>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS







000
FXUS61 KOKX 050259
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
959 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PCPN HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH A STEADY RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SW...IMPACTING MOST AREAS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR INTERIOR OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND SRN CT. DUAL POL RADAR DATA SHOWS A MIXED PCPN PHASE AT ABOUT
4000 TO 5000 FT. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF VERTICAL
COOLING BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS. COLD FRONT REMAINS
JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. 00Z NAM WRF HAS TRENDED A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD AIR WORKING IN WHICH MAY DELAY THE
CHANGEOVER AN HOUR OR TWO.

SEVERAL WAVES WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY A VERY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL JET...BETWEEN 200 AND 215
KT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
THIS JET. TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALSO SETS UP AS COLD AIR FILTERS
IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THIS EVENING TO BE IN THE FORM
OF PLAIN RAIN. AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO A RAIN...SLEET..AND
SNOW MIX FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING. FEEL THE
ENTIRE AREA WILL BE ALL SNOW BY OR JUST AFTER 06Z. SNOW...MODERATE
TO POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ZONES AS THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT WILL
RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. THE SNOW BEGINS
TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OVERALL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS..EURO...CMC...CMC REGIONAL...UKMET...GEFS...AND SREF ALL
INDICATE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES FROM JUST
AFTER 06Z TO AROUND 18Z THURSDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER
AS IT SUPPRESSES MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH OF THE REGION AFTER 12Z.
THE 18Z NAM DID SHIFT THE AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTH HOWEVER
COMPARED TO ITS 12Z RUN. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTS SNOW
CONTINUING LONGER THAN THE NAM IS SHOWING AND THIS THINKING IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE FIRST PORTION OF
THE SNOW WILL SEE LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...BUT AS THE COLUMN
COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY THURS MORNING...EXPECT RATIOS TO INCREASE
A BIT.

DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE ADDED MANHATTAN...BRONX...HUDSON...
AND EASTERN ESSEX INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING...AND REPLACED THE
REST OF THE WATCH WITH ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT NORTHERN NEW LONDON
WHERE NO HEADLINE IS IN EFFECT. ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER
INTO AN ADVISORY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE
WARNING AND 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST INCLUDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IF ANY NORTH SHIFT
NORTH OCCURS...TOTALS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. ON THE
OTHER HAND...IF A SOUTH SHIFT OCCURS...TOTALS COULD END UP LOWER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS EVENING INTO THE 30S AND THEN
BELOW FREEZING AFTER 06Z. EXPECT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE RIGHT OVER US ON FRIDAY...AND IT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CANADIAN ORIGINS...AND WITH PLENTY OF
SNOWPACK TO THE WEST...IT WON`T HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO MODERATE
BEFORE IT ARRIVES HERE. AFTER A RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD COLD
START...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE MID 20S...ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A FAST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF WEAK
FRONTS/TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH HERE. THIS RELATIVELY FLAT FLOW WILL
AT LEAST KEEP THE ABNORMALLY COLD AIR WE`VE BEEN EXPERIENCING LOCKED
UP TO OUR NORTH. SO WITH THE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES...WILL GO CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS KEEPS
MOST OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE CITY SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE BETTER AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THE
ONLY OTHER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE
WITH IT...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. PCPN TYPE
MOST LIKELY SNOW TO START...THEN MIXING WITH RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE VERY COLD AIR STAYING NORTH...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE FROM THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY TO
THE UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
LOW PRES TRACKS FROM THE GULF COAST AND MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CONDS EXPECTED IN
RAIN AND FOG.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW/SLEET IN THE 04-06Z
TIME FRAME...AND THEN THE WINTRY MIX CHANGES ALL SNOW FROM 06-08Z.
TIMING OF TRANSITION MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

MODERATE SNOW WILL FALL FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...AND THEN PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE. IFR/LIFR CONDS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR IN
THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO VFR LATE.

EXPECTED RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS:
KJFK/KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KHPN/KBDR/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KSWF...2-3 INCHES.

S WINDS THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS. N/NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
THE REMAINING WATERS BELOW SCA THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS ARE
MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN WATERS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WHEN THEY
LIKELY STAY BELOW. SEAS HOWEVER WILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS. WINDS
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT SO THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER.

A PERIOD OF SUB SCA CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH
THE WATERS. THE RETURN SW FLOW INCREASES ON SATURDAY...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN DURING THE MORNING AND LASTING
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE FEATURES
THEREAFTER THROUGH MONDAY WILL PROMOTE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. HAVE
GONE BELOW WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SOME OF THIS PERIOD AS IT
APPEARS TO BUILDING TOO MUCH SWELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS







000
FXUS61 KOKX 050259
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
959 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PCPN HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH A STEADY RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SW...IMPACTING MOST AREAS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR INTERIOR OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND SRN CT. DUAL POL RADAR DATA SHOWS A MIXED PCPN PHASE AT ABOUT
4000 TO 5000 FT. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF VERTICAL
COOLING BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS. COLD FRONT REMAINS
JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. 00Z NAM WRF HAS TRENDED A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD AIR WORKING IN WHICH MAY DELAY THE
CHANGEOVER AN HOUR OR TWO.

SEVERAL WAVES WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY A VERY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL JET...BETWEEN 200 AND 215
KT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
THIS JET. TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALSO SETS UP AS COLD AIR FILTERS
IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THIS EVENING TO BE IN THE FORM
OF PLAIN RAIN. AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO A RAIN...SLEET..AND
SNOW MIX FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING. FEEL THE
ENTIRE AREA WILL BE ALL SNOW BY OR JUST AFTER 06Z. SNOW...MODERATE
TO POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ZONES AS THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT WILL
RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. THE SNOW BEGINS
TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OVERALL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS..EURO...CMC...CMC REGIONAL...UKMET...GEFS...AND SREF ALL
INDICATE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES FROM JUST
AFTER 06Z TO AROUND 18Z THURSDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER
AS IT SUPPRESSES MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH OF THE REGION AFTER 12Z.
THE 18Z NAM DID SHIFT THE AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTH HOWEVER
COMPARED TO ITS 12Z RUN. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTS SNOW
CONTINUING LONGER THAN THE NAM IS SHOWING AND THIS THINKING IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE FIRST PORTION OF
THE SNOW WILL SEE LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...BUT AS THE COLUMN
COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY THURS MORNING...EXPECT RATIOS TO INCREASE
A BIT.

DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE ADDED MANHATTAN...BRONX...HUDSON...
AND EASTERN ESSEX INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING...AND REPLACED THE
REST OF THE WATCH WITH ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT NORTHERN NEW LONDON
WHERE NO HEADLINE IS IN EFFECT. ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER
INTO AN ADVISORY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE
WARNING AND 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST INCLUDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IF ANY NORTH SHIFT
NORTH OCCURS...TOTALS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. ON THE
OTHER HAND...IF A SOUTH SHIFT OCCURS...TOTALS COULD END UP LOWER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS EVENING INTO THE 30S AND THEN
BELOW FREEZING AFTER 06Z. EXPECT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE RIGHT OVER US ON FRIDAY...AND IT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CANADIAN ORIGINS...AND WITH PLENTY OF
SNOWPACK TO THE WEST...IT WON`T HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO MODERATE
BEFORE IT ARRIVES HERE. AFTER A RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD COLD
START...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE MID 20S...ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A FAST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF WEAK
FRONTS/TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH HERE. THIS RELATIVELY FLAT FLOW WILL
AT LEAST KEEP THE ABNORMALLY COLD AIR WE`VE BEEN EXPERIENCING LOCKED
UP TO OUR NORTH. SO WITH THE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES...WILL GO CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS KEEPS
MOST OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE CITY SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE BETTER AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THE
ONLY OTHER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE
WITH IT...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. PCPN TYPE
MOST LIKELY SNOW TO START...THEN MIXING WITH RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE VERY COLD AIR STAYING NORTH...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE FROM THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY TO
THE UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
LOW PRES TRACKS FROM THE GULF COAST AND MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CONDS EXPECTED IN
RAIN AND FOG.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW/SLEET IN THE 04-06Z
TIME FRAME...AND THEN THE WINTRY MIX CHANGES ALL SNOW FROM 06-08Z.
TIMING OF TRANSITION MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

MODERATE SNOW WILL FALL FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...AND THEN PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE. IFR/LIFR CONDS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR IN
THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO VFR LATE.

EXPECTED RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS:
KJFK/KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KHPN/KBDR/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KSWF...2-3 INCHES.

S WINDS THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS. N/NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
THE REMAINING WATERS BELOW SCA THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS ARE
MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN WATERS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WHEN THEY
LIKELY STAY BELOW. SEAS HOWEVER WILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS. WINDS
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT SO THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER.

A PERIOD OF SUB SCA CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH
THE WATERS. THE RETURN SW FLOW INCREASES ON SATURDAY...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN DURING THE MORNING AND LASTING
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE FEATURES
THEREAFTER THROUGH MONDAY WILL PROMOTE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. HAVE
GONE BELOW WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SOME OF THIS PERIOD AS IT
APPEARS TO BUILDING TOO MUCH SWELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 050259
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
959 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PCPN HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH A STEADY RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SW...IMPACTING MOST AREAS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR INTERIOR OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND SRN CT. DUAL POL RADAR DATA SHOWS A MIXED PCPN PHASE AT ABOUT
4000 TO 5000 FT. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF VERTICAL
COOLING BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS. COLD FRONT REMAINS
JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. 00Z NAM WRF HAS TRENDED A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD AIR WORKING IN WHICH MAY DELAY THE
CHANGEOVER AN HOUR OR TWO.

SEVERAL WAVES WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY A VERY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL JET...BETWEEN 200 AND 215
KT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
THIS JET. TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALSO SETS UP AS COLD AIR FILTERS
IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THIS EVENING TO BE IN THE FORM
OF PLAIN RAIN. AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO A RAIN...SLEET..AND
SNOW MIX FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING. FEEL THE
ENTIRE AREA WILL BE ALL SNOW BY OR JUST AFTER 06Z. SNOW...MODERATE
TO POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ZONES AS THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT WILL
RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. THE SNOW BEGINS
TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OVERALL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS..EURO...CMC...CMC REGIONAL...UKMET...GEFS...AND SREF ALL
INDICATE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES FROM JUST
AFTER 06Z TO AROUND 18Z THURSDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER
AS IT SUPPRESSES MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH OF THE REGION AFTER 12Z.
THE 18Z NAM DID SHIFT THE AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTH HOWEVER
COMPARED TO ITS 12Z RUN. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTS SNOW
CONTINUING LONGER THAN THE NAM IS SHOWING AND THIS THINKING IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE FIRST PORTION OF
THE SNOW WILL SEE LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...BUT AS THE COLUMN
COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY THURS MORNING...EXPECT RATIOS TO INCREASE
A BIT.

DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE ADDED MANHATTAN...BRONX...HUDSON...
AND EASTERN ESSEX INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING...AND REPLACED THE
REST OF THE WATCH WITH ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT NORTHERN NEW LONDON
WHERE NO HEADLINE IS IN EFFECT. ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER
INTO AN ADVISORY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE
WARNING AND 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST INCLUDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IF ANY NORTH SHIFT
NORTH OCCURS...TOTALS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. ON THE
OTHER HAND...IF A SOUTH SHIFT OCCURS...TOTALS COULD END UP LOWER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS EVENING INTO THE 30S AND THEN
BELOW FREEZING AFTER 06Z. EXPECT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE RIGHT OVER US ON FRIDAY...AND IT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CANADIAN ORIGINS...AND WITH PLENTY OF
SNOWPACK TO THE WEST...IT WON`T HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO MODERATE
BEFORE IT ARRIVES HERE. AFTER A RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD COLD
START...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE MID 20S...ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A FAST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF WEAK
FRONTS/TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH HERE. THIS RELATIVELY FLAT FLOW WILL
AT LEAST KEEP THE ABNORMALLY COLD AIR WE`VE BEEN EXPERIENCING LOCKED
UP TO OUR NORTH. SO WITH THE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES...WILL GO CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS KEEPS
MOST OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE CITY SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE BETTER AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THE
ONLY OTHER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE
WITH IT...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. PCPN TYPE
MOST LIKELY SNOW TO START...THEN MIXING WITH RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE VERY COLD AIR STAYING NORTH...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE FROM THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY TO
THE UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
LOW PRES TRACKS FROM THE GULF COAST AND MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CONDS EXPECTED IN
RAIN AND FOG.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW/SLEET IN THE 04-06Z
TIME FRAME...AND THEN THE WINTRY MIX CHANGES ALL SNOW FROM 06-08Z.
TIMING OF TRANSITION MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

MODERATE SNOW WILL FALL FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...AND THEN PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE. IFR/LIFR CONDS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR IN
THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO VFR LATE.

EXPECTED RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS:
KJFK/KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KHPN/KBDR/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KSWF...2-3 INCHES.

S WINDS THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS. N/NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
THE REMAINING WATERS BELOW SCA THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS ARE
MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN WATERS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WHEN THEY
LIKELY STAY BELOW. SEAS HOWEVER WILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS. WINDS
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT SO THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER.

A PERIOD OF SUB SCA CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH
THE WATERS. THE RETURN SW FLOW INCREASES ON SATURDAY...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN DURING THE MORNING AND LASTING
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE FEATURES
THEREAFTER THROUGH MONDAY WILL PROMOTE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. HAVE
GONE BELOW WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SOME OF THIS PERIOD AS IT
APPEARS TO BUILDING TOO MUCH SWELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 050020
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
720 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIGHT NOW DISORGANIZED PCPN ACROSS THE AREA IS IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT RAIN. FIRST COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE NEEDED AIR
FOR A TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN. A MUCH COLDER SHOT OF AIR ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL THEN ARRIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH ALL
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BY THAT TIME. ALSO ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES DOWN
THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND OBS.

SEVERAL WAVES WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE...REDEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
ALSO BE PROVIDED BY A VERY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL JET...BETWEEN 200
AND 215 KT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH THIS JET. TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALSO SETS UP AS COLD
AIR FILTERS IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THIS EVENING TO BE IN THE FORM
OF PLAIN RAIN. AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO A RAIN...SLEET..AND
SNOW MIX FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING. FEEL THE
ENTIRE AREA WILL BE ALL SNOW BY OR JUST AFTER 06Z. SNOW...MODERATE
TO POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ZONES AS THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT WILL
RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. THE SNOW BEGINS
TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OVERALL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS..EURO...CMC...CMC REGIONAL...UKMET...GEFS...AND SREF ALL
INDICATE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES FROM JUST
AFTER 06Z TO AROUND 18Z THURSDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER
AS IT SUPPRESSES MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH OF THE REGION AFTER 12Z.
THE 18Z NAM DID SHIFT THE AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTH HOWEVER
COMPARED TO ITS 12Z RUN. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTS SNOW
CONTINUING LONGER THAN THE NAM IS SHOWING AND THIS THINKING IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE FIRST PORTION OF
THE SNOW WILL SEE LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...BUT AS THE COLUMN
COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY THURS MORNING...EXPECT RATIOS TO INCREASE
A BIT.

DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE ADDED MANHATTAN...BRONX...HUDSON...
AND EASTERN ESSEX INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING...AND REPLACED THE
REST OF THE WATCH WITH ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT NORTHERN NEW LONDON
WHERE NO HEADLINE IS IN EFFECT. ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER
INTO AN ADVISORY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE
WARNING AND 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST INCLUDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IF ANY NORTH SHIFT
NORTH OCCURS...TOTALS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. ON THE
OTHER HAND...IF A SOUTH SHIFT OCCURS...TOTALS COULD END UP LOWER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS EVENING INTO THE 30S AND THEN
BELOW FREEZING AFTER 06Z. EXPECT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE RIGHT OVER US ON FRIDAY...AND IT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CANADIAN ORIGINS...AND WITH PLENTY OF
SNOWPACK TO THE WEST...IT WON`T HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO MODERATE
BEFORE IT ARRIVES HERE. AFTER A RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD COLD
START...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE MID 20S...ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A FAST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF WEAK
FRONTS/TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH HERE. THIS RELATIVELY FLAT FLOW WILL
AT LEAST KEEP THE ABNORMALLY COLD AIR WE`VE BEEN EXPERIENCING LOCKED
UP TO OUR NORTH. SO WITH THE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES...WILL GO CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS KEEPS
MOST OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE CITY SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE BETTER AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THE
ONLY OTHER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE
WITH IT...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. PCPN TYPE
MOST LIKELY SNOW TO START...THEN MIXING WITH RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE VERY COLD AIR STAYING NORTH...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE FROM THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY TO
THE UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES TRACKS FROM THE
GULF COAST AND MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW/SLEET IN THE 03-06Z
TIME FRAME...AND THEN THE WINTRY MIX CHANGES ALL SNOW FROM 06-08Z.
TIMING OF TRANSITION MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

MODERATE SNOW WILL FALL FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...AND THEN PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE.

EXPECTED RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS:
KJFK/KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KHPN/KBDR/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KSWF...2-3 INCHES.

S WINDS THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS. N/NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. TIMING OF
PTYPE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX...AND THEN TO ALL SNOW MAY BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION 6-8 INCHES. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. TIMING OF
PTYPE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX...AND THEN TO ALL SNOW MAY BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. TIMING OF
PTYPE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX...AND THEN TO ALL SNOW MAY BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. TIMING OF
PTYPE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX...AND THEN TO ALL SNOW MAY BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. TIMING OF
PTYPE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX...AND THEN TO ALL SNOW MAY BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME IN LOW
CIGS/FOG. OTHERWISE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. TIMING OF
PTYPE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX...AND THEN TO ALL SNOW MAY BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION 6-8 INCHES. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
OTHER WATERS REMAINING BELOW SCA THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE EXTENDED
THE SCA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. WINDS ARE MARGINAL SCA ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WHEN THEY LIKELY STAY BELOW. SEAS
HOWEVER WILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS. WINDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FEET OVER THE
OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT SO THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER.

A PERIOD OF SUB SCA CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH
THE WATERS. THE RETURN SW FLOW INCREASES ON SATURDAY...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN DURING THE MORNING AND LASTING
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE FEATURES
THEREAFTER THROUGH MONDAY WILL PROMOTE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. HAVE
GONE BELOW WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SOME OF THIS PERIOD AS IT
APPEARS TO BUILDING TOO MUCH SWELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS











000
FXUS61 KOKX 050020
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
720 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIGHT NOW DISORGANIZED PCPN ACROSS THE AREA IS IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT RAIN. FIRST COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE NEEDED AIR
FOR A TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN. A MUCH COLDER SHOT OF AIR ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL THEN ARRIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH ALL
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BY THAT TIME. ALSO ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES DOWN
THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND OBS.

SEVERAL WAVES WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE...REDEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
ALSO BE PROVIDED BY A VERY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL JET...BETWEEN 200
AND 215 KT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH THIS JET. TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALSO SETS UP AS COLD
AIR FILTERS IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THIS EVENING TO BE IN THE FORM
OF PLAIN RAIN. AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO A RAIN...SLEET..AND
SNOW MIX FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING. FEEL THE
ENTIRE AREA WILL BE ALL SNOW BY OR JUST AFTER 06Z. SNOW...MODERATE
TO POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ZONES AS THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT WILL
RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. THE SNOW BEGINS
TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OVERALL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS..EURO...CMC...CMC REGIONAL...UKMET...GEFS...AND SREF ALL
INDICATE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES FROM JUST
AFTER 06Z TO AROUND 18Z THURSDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER
AS IT SUPPRESSES MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH OF THE REGION AFTER 12Z.
THE 18Z NAM DID SHIFT THE AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTH HOWEVER
COMPARED TO ITS 12Z RUN. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTS SNOW
CONTINUING LONGER THAN THE NAM IS SHOWING AND THIS THINKING IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE FIRST PORTION OF
THE SNOW WILL SEE LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...BUT AS THE COLUMN
COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY THURS MORNING...EXPECT RATIOS TO INCREASE
A BIT.

DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE ADDED MANHATTAN...BRONX...HUDSON...
AND EASTERN ESSEX INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING...AND REPLACED THE
REST OF THE WATCH WITH ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT NORTHERN NEW LONDON
WHERE NO HEADLINE IS IN EFFECT. ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER
INTO AN ADVISORY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE
WARNING AND 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST INCLUDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IF ANY NORTH SHIFT
NORTH OCCURS...TOTALS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. ON THE
OTHER HAND...IF A SOUTH SHIFT OCCURS...TOTALS COULD END UP LOWER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS EVENING INTO THE 30S AND THEN
BELOW FREEZING AFTER 06Z. EXPECT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE RIGHT OVER US ON FRIDAY...AND IT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CANADIAN ORIGINS...AND WITH PLENTY OF
SNOWPACK TO THE WEST...IT WON`T HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO MODERATE
BEFORE IT ARRIVES HERE. AFTER A RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD COLD
START...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE MID 20S...ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A FAST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF WEAK
FRONTS/TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH HERE. THIS RELATIVELY FLAT FLOW WILL
AT LEAST KEEP THE ABNORMALLY COLD AIR WE`VE BEEN EXPERIENCING LOCKED
UP TO OUR NORTH. SO WITH THE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES...WILL GO CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS KEEPS
MOST OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE CITY SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE BETTER AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THE
ONLY OTHER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE
WITH IT...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. PCPN TYPE
MOST LIKELY SNOW TO START...THEN MIXING WITH RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE VERY COLD AIR STAYING NORTH...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE FROM THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY TO
THE UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES TRACKS FROM THE
GULF COAST AND MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW/SLEET IN THE 03-06Z
TIME FRAME...AND THEN THE WINTRY MIX CHANGES ALL SNOW FROM 06-08Z.
TIMING OF TRANSITION MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

MODERATE SNOW WILL FALL FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...AND THEN PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE.

EXPECTED RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS:
KJFK/KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KHPN/KBDR/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KSWF...2-3 INCHES.

S WINDS THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS. N/NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. TIMING OF
PTYPE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX...AND THEN TO ALL SNOW MAY BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION 6-8 INCHES. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. TIMING OF
PTYPE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX...AND THEN TO ALL SNOW MAY BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. TIMING OF
PTYPE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX...AND THEN TO ALL SNOW MAY BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. TIMING OF
PTYPE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX...AND THEN TO ALL SNOW MAY BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. TIMING OF
PTYPE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX...AND THEN TO ALL SNOW MAY BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME IN LOW
CIGS/FOG. OTHERWISE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. TIMING OF
PTYPE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX...AND THEN TO ALL SNOW MAY BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION 6-8 INCHES. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
OTHER WATERS REMAINING BELOW SCA THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE EXTENDED
THE SCA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. WINDS ARE MARGINAL SCA ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WHEN THEY LIKELY STAY BELOW. SEAS
HOWEVER WILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS. WINDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FEET OVER THE
OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT SO THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER.

A PERIOD OF SUB SCA CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH
THE WATERS. THE RETURN SW FLOW INCREASES ON SATURDAY...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN DURING THE MORNING AND LASTING
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE FEATURES
THEREAFTER THROUGH MONDAY WILL PROMOTE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. HAVE
GONE BELOW WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SOME OF THIS PERIOD AS IT
APPEARS TO BUILDING TOO MUCH SWELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS











000
FXUS61 KOKX 050020
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
720 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIGHT NOW DISORGANIZED PCPN ACROSS THE AREA IS IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT RAIN. FIRST COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE NEEDED AIR
FOR A TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN. A MUCH COLDER SHOT OF AIR ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL THEN ARRIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH ALL
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BY THAT TIME. ALSO ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES DOWN
THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND OBS.

SEVERAL WAVES WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE...REDEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
ALSO BE PROVIDED BY A VERY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL JET...BETWEEN 200
AND 215 KT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH THIS JET. TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALSO SETS UP AS COLD
AIR FILTERS IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THIS EVENING TO BE IN THE FORM
OF PLAIN RAIN. AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO A RAIN...SLEET..AND
SNOW MIX FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING. FEEL THE
ENTIRE AREA WILL BE ALL SNOW BY OR JUST AFTER 06Z. SNOW...MODERATE
TO POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ZONES AS THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT WILL
RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. THE SNOW BEGINS
TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OVERALL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS..EURO...CMC...CMC REGIONAL...UKMET...GEFS...AND SREF ALL
INDICATE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES FROM JUST
AFTER 06Z TO AROUND 18Z THURSDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER
AS IT SUPPRESSES MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH OF THE REGION AFTER 12Z.
THE 18Z NAM DID SHIFT THE AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTH HOWEVER
COMPARED TO ITS 12Z RUN. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTS SNOW
CONTINUING LONGER THAN THE NAM IS SHOWING AND THIS THINKING IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE FIRST PORTION OF
THE SNOW WILL SEE LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...BUT AS THE COLUMN
COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY THURS MORNING...EXPECT RATIOS TO INCREASE
A BIT.

DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE ADDED MANHATTAN...BRONX...HUDSON...
AND EASTERN ESSEX INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING...AND REPLACED THE
REST OF THE WATCH WITH ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT NORTHERN NEW LONDON
WHERE NO HEADLINE IS IN EFFECT. ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER
INTO AN ADVISORY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE
WARNING AND 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST INCLUDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IF ANY NORTH SHIFT
NORTH OCCURS...TOTALS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. ON THE
OTHER HAND...IF A SOUTH SHIFT OCCURS...TOTALS COULD END UP LOWER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS EVENING INTO THE 30S AND THEN
BELOW FREEZING AFTER 06Z. EXPECT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE RIGHT OVER US ON FRIDAY...AND IT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CANADIAN ORIGINS...AND WITH PLENTY OF
SNOWPACK TO THE WEST...IT WON`T HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO MODERATE
BEFORE IT ARRIVES HERE. AFTER A RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD COLD
START...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE MID 20S...ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A FAST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF WEAK
FRONTS/TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH HERE. THIS RELATIVELY FLAT FLOW WILL
AT LEAST KEEP THE ABNORMALLY COLD AIR WE`VE BEEN EXPERIENCING LOCKED
UP TO OUR NORTH. SO WITH THE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES...WILL GO CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS KEEPS
MOST OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE CITY SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE BETTER AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THE
ONLY OTHER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE
WITH IT...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. PCPN TYPE
MOST LIKELY SNOW TO START...THEN MIXING WITH RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE VERY COLD AIR STAYING NORTH...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE FROM THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY TO
THE UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES TRACKS FROM THE
GULF COAST AND MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW/SLEET IN THE 03-06Z
TIME FRAME...AND THEN THE WINTRY MIX CHANGES ALL SNOW FROM 06-08Z.
TIMING OF TRANSITION MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

MODERATE SNOW WILL FALL FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...AND THEN PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE.

EXPECTED RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS:
KJFK/KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KHPN/KBDR/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KSWF...2-3 INCHES.

S WINDS THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS. N/NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. TIMING OF
PTYPE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX...AND THEN TO ALL SNOW MAY BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION 6-8 INCHES. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. TIMING OF
PTYPE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX...AND THEN TO ALL SNOW MAY BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. TIMING OF
PTYPE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX...AND THEN TO ALL SNOW MAY BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. TIMING OF
PTYPE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX...AND THEN TO ALL SNOW MAY BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. TIMING OF
PTYPE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX...AND THEN TO ALL SNOW MAY BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME IN LOW
CIGS/FOG. OTHERWISE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. TIMING OF
PTYPE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX...AND THEN TO ALL SNOW MAY BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION 6-8 INCHES. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
OTHER WATERS REMAINING BELOW SCA THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE EXTENDED
THE SCA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. WINDS ARE MARGINAL SCA ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WHEN THEY LIKELY STAY BELOW. SEAS
HOWEVER WILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS. WINDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FEET OVER THE
OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT SO THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER.

A PERIOD OF SUB SCA CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH
THE WATERS. THE RETURN SW FLOW INCREASES ON SATURDAY...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN DURING THE MORNING AND LASTING
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE FEATURES
THEREAFTER THROUGH MONDAY WILL PROMOTE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. HAVE
GONE BELOW WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SOME OF THIS PERIOD AS IT
APPEARS TO BUILDING TOO MUCH SWELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS












000
FXUS61 KOKX 050020
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
720 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIGHT NOW DISORGANIZED PCPN ACROSS THE AREA IS IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT RAIN. FIRST COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE NEEDED AIR
FOR A TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN. A MUCH COLDER SHOT OF AIR ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL THEN ARRIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH ALL
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BY THAT TIME. ALSO ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES DOWN
THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND OBS.

SEVERAL WAVES WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE...REDEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
ALSO BE PROVIDED BY A VERY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL JET...BETWEEN 200
AND 215 KT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH THIS JET. TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALSO SETS UP AS COLD
AIR FILTERS IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THIS EVENING TO BE IN THE FORM
OF PLAIN RAIN. AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO A RAIN...SLEET..AND
SNOW MIX FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING. FEEL THE
ENTIRE AREA WILL BE ALL SNOW BY OR JUST AFTER 06Z. SNOW...MODERATE
TO POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ZONES AS THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT WILL
RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. THE SNOW BEGINS
TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OVERALL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS..EURO...CMC...CMC REGIONAL...UKMET...GEFS...AND SREF ALL
INDICATE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES FROM JUST
AFTER 06Z TO AROUND 18Z THURSDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER
AS IT SUPPRESSES MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH OF THE REGION AFTER 12Z.
THE 18Z NAM DID SHIFT THE AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTH HOWEVER
COMPARED TO ITS 12Z RUN. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTS SNOW
CONTINUING LONGER THAN THE NAM IS SHOWING AND THIS THINKING IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE FIRST PORTION OF
THE SNOW WILL SEE LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...BUT AS THE COLUMN
COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY THURS MORNING...EXPECT RATIOS TO INCREASE
A BIT.

DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE ADDED MANHATTAN...BRONX...HUDSON...
AND EASTERN ESSEX INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING...AND REPLACED THE
REST OF THE WATCH WITH ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT NORTHERN NEW LONDON
WHERE NO HEADLINE IS IN EFFECT. ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER
INTO AN ADVISORY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE
WARNING AND 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST INCLUDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IF ANY NORTH SHIFT
NORTH OCCURS...TOTALS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. ON THE
OTHER HAND...IF A SOUTH SHIFT OCCURS...TOTALS COULD END UP LOWER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS EVENING INTO THE 30S AND THEN
BELOW FREEZING AFTER 06Z. EXPECT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE RIGHT OVER US ON FRIDAY...AND IT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CANADIAN ORIGINS...AND WITH PLENTY OF
SNOWPACK TO THE WEST...IT WON`T HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO MODERATE
BEFORE IT ARRIVES HERE. AFTER A RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD COLD
START...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE MID 20S...ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A FAST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF WEAK
FRONTS/TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH HERE. THIS RELATIVELY FLAT FLOW WILL
AT LEAST KEEP THE ABNORMALLY COLD AIR WE`VE BEEN EXPERIENCING LOCKED
UP TO OUR NORTH. SO WITH THE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES...WILL GO CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS KEEPS
MOST OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE CITY SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE BETTER AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THE
ONLY OTHER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE
WITH IT...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. PCPN TYPE
MOST LIKELY SNOW TO START...THEN MIXING WITH RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE VERY COLD AIR STAYING NORTH...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE FROM THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY TO
THE UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES TRACKS FROM THE
GULF COAST AND MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW/SLEET IN THE 03-06Z
TIME FRAME...AND THEN THE WINTRY MIX CHANGES ALL SNOW FROM 06-08Z.
TIMING OF TRANSITION MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

MODERATE SNOW WILL FALL FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...AND THEN PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE.

EXPECTED RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS:
KJFK/KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KHPN/KBDR/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KSWF...2-3 INCHES.

S WINDS THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS. N/NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. TIMING OF
PTYPE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX...AND THEN TO ALL SNOW MAY BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION 6-8 INCHES. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. TIMING OF
PTYPE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX...AND THEN TO ALL SNOW MAY BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. TIMING OF
PTYPE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX...AND THEN TO ALL SNOW MAY BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. TIMING OF
PTYPE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX...AND THEN TO ALL SNOW MAY BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. TIMING OF
PTYPE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX...AND THEN TO ALL SNOW MAY BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME IN LOW
CIGS/FOG. OTHERWISE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. TIMING OF
PTYPE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX...AND THEN TO ALL SNOW MAY BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION 6-8 INCHES. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
OTHER WATERS REMAINING BELOW SCA THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE EXTENDED
THE SCA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. WINDS ARE MARGINAL SCA ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WHEN THEY LIKELY STAY BELOW. SEAS
HOWEVER WILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS. WINDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FEET OVER THE
OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT SO THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER.

A PERIOD OF SUB SCA CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH
THE WATERS. THE RETURN SW FLOW INCREASES ON SATURDAY...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN DURING THE MORNING AND LASTING
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE FEATURES
THEREAFTER THROUGH MONDAY WILL PROMOTE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. HAVE
GONE BELOW WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SOME OF THIS PERIOD AS IT
APPEARS TO BUILDING TOO MUCH SWELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS












000
FXUS61 KOKX 042201 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
458 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN PA. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE
FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEVERAL WAVES WILL FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...REDEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
ALSO BE PROVIDED BY A VERY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL JET...BETWEEN 200
AND 215 KT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH THIS JET. TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALSO SETS UP AS
COLD AIR FILTERS IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THIS EVENING TO BE IN THE FORM
OF PLAIN RAIN. AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO A
RAIN...SLEET..AND SNOW MIX FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
EVENING. FEEL THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE ALL SNOW BY OR JUST AFTER
06Z. SNOW...MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ZONES AS THE BEST
FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE REGION. THE SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OVERALL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS..EURO...CMC...CMC REGIONAL...UKMET...GEFS...AND SREF ALL
INDICATE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES FROM JUST
AFTER 06Z TO AROUND 18Z THURSDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER
AS IT SUPPRESSES MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH OF THE REGION AFTER 12Z.
THE 18Z NAM DID SHIFT THE AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTH HOWEVER
COMPARED TO ITS 12Z RUN. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTS SNOW
CONTINUING LONGER THAN THE NAM IS SHOWING AND THIS THINKING IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE FIRST PORTION OF
THE SNOW WILL SEE LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...BUT AS THE COLUMN
COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY THURS MORNING...EXPECT RATIOS TO INCREASE
A BIT.

DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE ADDED MANHATTAN...BRONX...HUDSON...
AND EASTERN ESSEX INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING...AND REPLACED THE
REST OF THE WATCH WITH ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT NORTHERN NEW LONDON
WHERE NO HEADLINE IS IN EFFECT. ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER
INTO AN ADVISORY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE
WARNING AND 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST INCLUDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IF ANY NORTH SHIFT
NORTH OCCURS...TOTALS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. ON THE
OTHER HAND...IF A SOUTH SHIFT OCCURS...TOTALS COULD END UP LOWER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS EVENING INTO THE 30S AND THEN
BELOW FREEZING AFTER 06Z. EXPECT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE RIGHT OVER US ON FRIDAY...AND IT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CANADIAN ORIGINS...AND WITH PLENTY OF
SNOWPACK TO THE WEST...IT WON`T HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO MODERATE
BEFORE IT ARRIVES HERE. AFTER A RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD COLD
START...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE MID 20S...ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A FAST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF WEAK
FRONTS/TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH HERE. THIS RELATIVELY FLAT FLOW WILL
AT LEAST KEEP THE ABNORMALLY COLD AIR WE`VE BEEN EXPERIENCING LOCKED
UP TO OUR NORTH. SO WITH THE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES...WILL GO CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS KEEPS
MOST OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE CITY SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE BETTER AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THE
ONLY OTHER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE
WITH IT...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. PCPN TYPE
MOST LIKELY SNOW TO START...THEN MIXING WITH RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE VERY COLD AIR STAYING NORTH...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE FROM THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY TO
THE UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

PERIODS OF RAIN WITH GENERALLY IFR-MVFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS PREDOMINATELY VFR UNTIL THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
MAY DETERIORATE AFTER SUNSET SOONER THAN FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND STALL
JUST S OF LONG ISLAND. RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AROUND 04-07Z.
HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MOST
TERMINALS...EWR/TEB/JFK/LGA/ISP.

SW FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL FROPA THIS EVE...BETWEEN 02Z AND
06Z...THEN BECOMING NW. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE.

RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY 4-6 INCHES. KJFK/KISP 6-8 INCHES.
KSWF 1-2 INCHES.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR VIS. AREA OF
HEAVIER RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE SW MAY LEAD TO PERIODIC IFR-LIFR
COND THRU 00Z. SNOW MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER THAN FORECAST. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION 6-8 INCHES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR VIS. AREA OF
HEAVIER RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE SW MAY LEAD TO PERIODIC IFR-LIFR
COND THRU 00Z. SNOW MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER THAN FORECAST. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR VIS. AREA OF
HEAVIER RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE SW MAY LEAD TO PERIODIC IFR-LIFR
COND THRU 00Z. SNOW MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER THAN FORECAST. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR VIS. AREA OF
HEAVIER RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE SW MAY LEAD TO PERIODIC IFR-LIFR
COND THRU 00Z. SNOW MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER THAN FORECAST. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR COND AS OF 20Z MAY BE SHORT LIVED AS RAIN
APPROACHES FROM THE SW. EXPECT MAINLY SUB-VFR COND WITH
DETERIORATING COND THIS EVENING. SNOW MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER THAN
FORECAST. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR-MVFR VIS THROUGH THE
DAY. SNOW MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER THAN FORECAST. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION
6-8 INCHES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY...-SN WITH IFR TO MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS...MVFR TO VFR
KSWF. N GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
OTHER WATERS REMAINING BELOW SCA THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE EXTENDED
THE SCA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. WINDS ARE MARGINAL SCA ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WHEN THEY LIKELY STAY BELOW. SEAS
HOWEVER WILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS. WINDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FEET OVER THE
OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT SO THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER.

A PERIOD OF SUB SCA CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH
THE WATERS. THE RETURN SW FLOW INCREASES ON SATURDAY...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN DURING THE MORNING AND LASTING
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE FEATURES
THEREAFTER THROUGH MONDAY WILL PROMOTE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. HAVE
GONE BELOW WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SOME OF THIS PERIOD AS IT
APPEARS TO BUILDING TOO MUCH SWELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MMD
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 042201 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
458 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN PA. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE
FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEVERAL WAVES WILL FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...REDEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
ALSO BE PROVIDED BY A VERY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL JET...BETWEEN 200
AND 215 KT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH THIS JET. TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALSO SETS UP AS
COLD AIR FILTERS IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THIS EVENING TO BE IN THE FORM
OF PLAIN RAIN. AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO A
RAIN...SLEET..AND SNOW MIX FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
EVENING. FEEL THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE ALL SNOW BY OR JUST AFTER
06Z. SNOW...MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ZONES AS THE BEST
FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE REGION. THE SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OVERALL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS..EURO...CMC...CMC REGIONAL...UKMET...GEFS...AND SREF ALL
INDICATE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES FROM JUST
AFTER 06Z TO AROUND 18Z THURSDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER
AS IT SUPPRESSES MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH OF THE REGION AFTER 12Z.
THE 18Z NAM DID SHIFT THE AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTH HOWEVER
COMPARED TO ITS 12Z RUN. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTS SNOW
CONTINUING LONGER THAN THE NAM IS SHOWING AND THIS THINKING IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE FIRST PORTION OF
THE SNOW WILL SEE LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...BUT AS THE COLUMN
COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY THURS MORNING...EXPECT RATIOS TO INCREASE
A BIT.

DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE ADDED MANHATTAN...BRONX...HUDSON...
AND EASTERN ESSEX INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING...AND REPLACED THE
REST OF THE WATCH WITH ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT NORTHERN NEW LONDON
WHERE NO HEADLINE IS IN EFFECT. ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER
INTO AN ADVISORY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE
WARNING AND 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST INCLUDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IF ANY NORTH SHIFT
NORTH OCCURS...TOTALS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. ON THE
OTHER HAND...IF A SOUTH SHIFT OCCURS...TOTALS COULD END UP LOWER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS EVENING INTO THE 30S AND THEN
BELOW FREEZING AFTER 06Z. EXPECT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE RIGHT OVER US ON FRIDAY...AND IT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CANADIAN ORIGINS...AND WITH PLENTY OF
SNOWPACK TO THE WEST...IT WON`T HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO MODERATE
BEFORE IT ARRIVES HERE. AFTER A RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD COLD
START...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE MID 20S...ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A FAST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF WEAK
FRONTS/TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH HERE. THIS RELATIVELY FLAT FLOW WILL
AT LEAST KEEP THE ABNORMALLY COLD AIR WE`VE BEEN EXPERIENCING LOCKED
UP TO OUR NORTH. SO WITH THE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES...WILL GO CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS KEEPS
MOST OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE CITY SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE BETTER AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THE
ONLY OTHER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE
WITH IT...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. PCPN TYPE
MOST LIKELY SNOW TO START...THEN MIXING WITH RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE VERY COLD AIR STAYING NORTH...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE FROM THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY TO
THE UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

PERIODS OF RAIN WITH GENERALLY IFR-MVFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS PREDOMINATELY VFR UNTIL THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
MAY DETERIORATE AFTER SUNSET SOONER THAN FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND STALL
JUST S OF LONG ISLAND. RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AROUND 04-07Z.
HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MOST
TERMINALS...EWR/TEB/JFK/LGA/ISP.

SW FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL FROPA THIS EVE...BETWEEN 02Z AND
06Z...THEN BECOMING NW. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE.

RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY 4-6 INCHES. KJFK/KISP 6-8 INCHES.
KSWF 1-2 INCHES.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR VIS. AREA OF
HEAVIER RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE SW MAY LEAD TO PERIODIC IFR-LIFR
COND THRU 00Z. SNOW MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER THAN FORECAST. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION 6-8 INCHES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR VIS. AREA OF
HEAVIER RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE SW MAY LEAD TO PERIODIC IFR-LIFR
COND THRU 00Z. SNOW MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER THAN FORECAST. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR VIS. AREA OF
HEAVIER RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE SW MAY LEAD TO PERIODIC IFR-LIFR
COND THRU 00Z. SNOW MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER THAN FORECAST. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR VIS. AREA OF
HEAVIER RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE SW MAY LEAD TO PERIODIC IFR-LIFR
COND THRU 00Z. SNOW MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER THAN FORECAST. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR COND AS OF 20Z MAY BE SHORT LIVED AS RAIN
APPROACHES FROM THE SW. EXPECT MAINLY SUB-VFR COND WITH
DETERIORATING COND THIS EVENING. SNOW MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER THAN
FORECAST. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR-MVFR VIS THROUGH THE
DAY. SNOW MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER THAN FORECAST. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION
6-8 INCHES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY...-SN WITH IFR TO MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS...MVFR TO VFR
KSWF. N GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
OTHER WATERS REMAINING BELOW SCA THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE EXTENDED
THE SCA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. WINDS ARE MARGINAL SCA ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WHEN THEY LIKELY STAY BELOW. SEAS
HOWEVER WILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS. WINDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FEET OVER THE
OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT SO THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER.

A PERIOD OF SUB SCA CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH
THE WATERS. THE RETURN SW FLOW INCREASES ON SATURDAY...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN DURING THE MORNING AND LASTING
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE FEATURES
THEREAFTER THROUGH MONDAY WILL PROMOTE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. HAVE
GONE BELOW WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SOME OF THIS PERIOD AS IT
APPEARS TO BUILDING TOO MUCH SWELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MMD
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 042201 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
458 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN PA. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE
FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEVERAL WAVES WILL FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...REDEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
ALSO BE PROVIDED BY A VERY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL JET...BETWEEN 200
AND 215 KT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH THIS JET. TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALSO SETS UP AS
COLD AIR FILTERS IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THIS EVENING TO BE IN THE FORM
OF PLAIN RAIN. AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO A
RAIN...SLEET..AND SNOW MIX FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
EVENING. FEEL THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE ALL SNOW BY OR JUST AFTER
06Z. SNOW...MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ZONES AS THE BEST
FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE REGION. THE SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OVERALL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS..EURO...CMC...CMC REGIONAL...UKMET...GEFS...AND SREF ALL
INDICATE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES FROM JUST
AFTER 06Z TO AROUND 18Z THURSDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER
AS IT SUPPRESSES MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH OF THE REGION AFTER 12Z.
THE 18Z NAM DID SHIFT THE AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTH HOWEVER
COMPARED TO ITS 12Z RUN. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTS SNOW
CONTINUING LONGER THAN THE NAM IS SHOWING AND THIS THINKING IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE FIRST PORTION OF
THE SNOW WILL SEE LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...BUT AS THE COLUMN
COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY THURS MORNING...EXPECT RATIOS TO INCREASE
A BIT.

DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE ADDED MANHATTAN...BRONX...HUDSON...
AND EASTERN ESSEX INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING...AND REPLACED THE
REST OF THE WATCH WITH ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT NORTHERN NEW LONDON
WHERE NO HEADLINE IS IN EFFECT. ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER
INTO AN ADVISORY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE
WARNING AND 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST INCLUDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IF ANY NORTH SHIFT
NORTH OCCURS...TOTALS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. ON THE
OTHER HAND...IF A SOUTH SHIFT OCCURS...TOTALS COULD END UP LOWER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS EVENING INTO THE 30S AND THEN
BELOW FREEZING AFTER 06Z. EXPECT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE RIGHT OVER US ON FRIDAY...AND IT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CANADIAN ORIGINS...AND WITH PLENTY OF
SNOWPACK TO THE WEST...IT WON`T HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO MODERATE
BEFORE IT ARRIVES HERE. AFTER A RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD COLD
START...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE MID 20S...ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A FAST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF WEAK
FRONTS/TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH HERE. THIS RELATIVELY FLAT FLOW WILL
AT LEAST KEEP THE ABNORMALLY COLD AIR WE`VE BEEN EXPERIENCING LOCKED
UP TO OUR NORTH. SO WITH THE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES...WILL GO CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS KEEPS
MOST OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE CITY SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE BETTER AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THE
ONLY OTHER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE
WITH IT...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. PCPN TYPE
MOST LIKELY SNOW TO START...THEN MIXING WITH RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE VERY COLD AIR STAYING NORTH...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE FROM THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY TO
THE UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

PERIODS OF RAIN WITH GENERALLY IFR-MVFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS PREDOMINATELY VFR UNTIL THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
MAY DETERIORATE AFTER SUNSET SOONER THAN FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND STALL
JUST S OF LONG ISLAND. RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AROUND 04-07Z.
HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MOST
TERMINALS...EWR/TEB/JFK/LGA/ISP.

SW FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL FROPA THIS EVE...BETWEEN 02Z AND
06Z...THEN BECOMING NW. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE.

RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY 4-6 INCHES. KJFK/KISP 6-8 INCHES.
KSWF 1-2 INCHES.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR VIS. AREA OF
HEAVIER RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE SW MAY LEAD TO PERIODIC IFR-LIFR
COND THRU 00Z. SNOW MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER THAN FORECAST. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION 6-8 INCHES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR VIS. AREA OF
HEAVIER RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE SW MAY LEAD TO PERIODIC IFR-LIFR
COND THRU 00Z. SNOW MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER THAN FORECAST. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR VIS. AREA OF
HEAVIER RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE SW MAY LEAD TO PERIODIC IFR-LIFR
COND THRU 00Z. SNOW MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER THAN FORECAST. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR VIS. AREA OF
HEAVIER RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE SW MAY LEAD TO PERIODIC IFR-LIFR
COND THRU 00Z. SNOW MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER THAN FORECAST. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR COND AS OF 20Z MAY BE SHORT LIVED AS RAIN
APPROACHES FROM THE SW. EXPECT MAINLY SUB-VFR COND WITH
DETERIORATING COND THIS EVENING. SNOW MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER THAN
FORECAST. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR-MVFR VIS THROUGH THE
DAY. SNOW MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER THAN FORECAST. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION
6-8 INCHES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY...-SN WITH IFR TO MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS...MVFR TO VFR
KSWF. N GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
OTHER WATERS REMAINING BELOW SCA THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE EXTENDED
THE SCA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. WINDS ARE MARGINAL SCA ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WHEN THEY LIKELY STAY BELOW. SEAS
HOWEVER WILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS. WINDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FEET OVER THE
OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT SO THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER.

A PERIOD OF SUB SCA CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH
THE WATERS. THE RETURN SW FLOW INCREASES ON SATURDAY...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN DURING THE MORNING AND LASTING
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE FEATURES
THEREAFTER THROUGH MONDAY WILL PROMOTE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. HAVE
GONE BELOW WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SOME OF THIS PERIOD AS IT
APPEARS TO BUILDING TOO MUCH SWELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MMD
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS










000
FXUS61 KOKX 042127
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
427 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN PA. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE
FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEVERAL WAVES WILL FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...REDEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
ALSO BE PROVIDED BY A VERY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL JET...BETWEEN 200
AND 215 KT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY THIS JET. TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALSO SETS UP AS COLD AIR
FILTERS IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THIS EVENING TO BE IN THE FROM
OF PLAIN RAIN. AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO A
RAIN...SLEET..AND SNOW MIX FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
EVENING. FEEL THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE ALL SNOW BY OR JUST AFTER
06Z. SNOW...MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ZONES AS THE BEST
FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE REGION. THE SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OVERALL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS..EURO...CMC...CMC REGIONAL...UKMET...GEFS...AND SREF ALL
INDICATE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES FROM JUST
AFTER 06Z TO AROUND 18Z THURSDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER
AS IT SUPPRESSES MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH OF THE REGION AFTER 12Z.
THE 18Z NAM DID SHIFT THE AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTH HOWEVER
COMPARED TO ITS 12Z RUN. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTS SNOW
CONTINUING LONGER THAN THE NAM IS SHOWING AND THIS THINKING IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE FIRST PORTION OF
THE SNOW WILL SEE LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...BUT AS THE COLUMN
COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY THURS MORNING...EXPECT RATIOS TO INCREASE
A BIT.

DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE ADDED MANHATTAN...BRONX...HUDSON...
AND EASTERN ESSEX INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING...AND REPLACED THE
REST OF THE WATCH WITH ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT NORTHERN NEW LONDON
WHERE NO HEADLINE IS IN EFFECT. ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER
INTO AN ADVISORY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE
WARNING AND 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST INCLUDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IF ANY NORTH SHIFT
NORTH OCCURS...TOTALS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. ON THE
OTHER HAND...IF A SOUTH SHIFT OCCURS...TOTALS COULD END UP LOWER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS EVENING INTO THE 30S AND THEN
BELOW FREEZING AFTER 06Z. EXPECT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE RIGHT OVER US ON FRIDAY...AND IT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CANADIAN ORIGINS...AND WITH PLENTY OF
SNOWPACK TO THE WEST...IT WON`T HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO MODERATE
BEFORE IT ARRIVES HERE. AFTER A RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD COLD
START...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE MID 20S...ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A FAST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF WEAK
FRONTS/TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH HERE. THIS RELATIVELY FLAT FLOW WILL
AT LEAST KEEP THE ABNORMALLY COLD AIR WE`VE BEEN EXPERIENCING LOCKED
UP TO OUR NORTH. SO WITH THE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES...WILL GO CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS KEEPS
MOST OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE CITY SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE BETTER AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THE
ONLY OTHER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE
WITH IT...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. PCPN TYPE
MOST LIKELY SNOW TO START...THEN MIXING WITH RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE VERY COLD AIR STAYING NORTH...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE FROM THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY TO
THE UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

PERIODS OF RAIN WITH GENERALLY IFR-MVFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS PREDOMINATELY VFR UNTIL THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
MAY DETERIORATE AFTER SUNSET SOONER THAN FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND STALL
JUST S OF LONG ISLAND. RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AROUND 04-07Z.
HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MOST
TERMINALS...EWR/TEB/JFK/LGA/ISP.

SW FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL FROPA THIS EVE...BETWEEN 02Z AND
06Z...THEN BECOMING NW. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE.

RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY 4-6 INCHES. KJFK/KISP 6-8 INCHES.
KSWF 1-2 INCHES.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR VIS. AREA OF
HEAVIER RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE SW MAY LEAD TO PERIODIC IFR-LIFR
COND THRU 00Z. SNOW MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER THAN FORECAST. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION 6-8 INCHES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR VIS. AREA OF
HEAVIER RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE SW MAY LEAD TO PERIODIC IFR-LIFR
COND THRU 00Z. SNOW MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER THAN FORECAST. RNUWAY
ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR VIS. AREA OF
HEAVIER RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE SW MAY LEAD TO PERIODIC IFR-LIFR
COND THRU 00Z. SNOW MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER THAN FORECAST. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR VIS. AREA OF
HEAVIER RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE SW MAY LEAD TO PERIODIC IFR-LIFR
COND THRU 00Z. SNOW MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER THAN FORECAST. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR COND AS OF 20Z MAY BE SHORT LIVED AS RAIN
APPROACHES FROM THE SW. EXPECT MAINLY SUB-VFR COND WITH
DETERIORATING COND THIS EVENING. SNOW MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER THAN
FORECAST. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR-MVFR VIS THROUGH THE
DAY. SNOW MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER THAN FORECAST. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION
6-8 INCHES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY...-SN WITH IFR TO MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS...MVFR TO VFR
KSWF. N GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
OTHER WATERS REMAINING BELOW SCA THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE EXTENDED
THE SCA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. WINDS ARE MARGINAL SCA ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WHEN THEY LIKELY STAY BELOW. SEAS
HOWEVER WILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS. WINDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FEET OVER THE
OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT SO THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER.

A PERIOD OF SUB SCA CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH
THE WATERS. THE RETURN SW FLOW INCREASES ON SATURDAY...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN DURING THE MORNING AND LASTING
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE FEATURES
THEREAFTER THROUGH MONDAY WILL PROMOTE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. HAVE
GONE BELOW WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SOME OF THIS PERIOD AS IT
APPEARS TO BUILDING TOO MUCH SWELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MMD
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS







000
FXUS61 KOKX 042127
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
427 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN PA. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE
FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEVERAL WAVES WILL FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...REDEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
ALSO BE PROVIDED BY A VERY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL JET...BETWEEN 200
AND 215 KT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY THIS JET. TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALSO SETS UP AS COLD AIR
FILTERS IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THIS EVENING TO BE IN THE FROM
OF PLAIN RAIN. AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO A
RAIN...SLEET..AND SNOW MIX FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
EVENING. FEEL THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE ALL SNOW BY OR JUST AFTER
06Z. SNOW...MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ZONES AS THE BEST
FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE REGION. THE SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OVERALL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS..EURO...CMC...CMC REGIONAL...UKMET...GEFS...AND SREF ALL
INDICATE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES FROM JUST
AFTER 06Z TO AROUND 18Z THURSDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER
AS IT SUPPRESSES MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH OF THE REGION AFTER 12Z.
THE 18Z NAM DID SHIFT THE AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTH HOWEVER
COMPARED TO ITS 12Z RUN. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTS SNOW
CONTINUING LONGER THAN THE NAM IS SHOWING AND THIS THINKING IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE FIRST PORTION OF
THE SNOW WILL SEE LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...BUT AS THE COLUMN
COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY THURS MORNING...EXPECT RATIOS TO INCREASE
A BIT.

DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE ADDED MANHATTAN...BRONX...HUDSON...
AND EASTERN ESSEX INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING...AND REPLACED THE
REST OF THE WATCH WITH ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT NORTHERN NEW LONDON
WHERE NO HEADLINE IS IN EFFECT. ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER
INTO AN ADVISORY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE
WARNING AND 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST INCLUDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IF ANY NORTH SHIFT
NORTH OCCURS...TOTALS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. ON THE
OTHER HAND...IF A SOUTH SHIFT OCCURS...TOTALS COULD END UP LOWER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS EVENING INTO THE 30S AND THEN
BELOW FREEZING AFTER 06Z. EXPECT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE RIGHT OVER US ON FRIDAY...AND IT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CANADIAN ORIGINS...AND WITH PLENTY OF
SNOWPACK TO THE WEST...IT WON`T HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO MODERATE
BEFORE IT ARRIVES HERE. AFTER A RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD COLD
START...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE MID 20S...ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A FAST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF WEAK
FRONTS/TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH HERE. THIS RELATIVELY FLAT FLOW WILL
AT LEAST KEEP THE ABNORMALLY COLD AIR WE`VE BEEN EXPERIENCING LOCKED
UP TO OUR NORTH. SO WITH THE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES...WILL GO CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS KEEPS
MOST OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE CITY SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE BETTER AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THE
ONLY OTHER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE
WITH IT...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. PCPN TYPE
MOST LIKELY SNOW TO START...THEN MIXING WITH RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE VERY COLD AIR STAYING NORTH...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE FROM THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY TO
THE UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

PERIODS OF RAIN WITH GENERALLY IFR-MVFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS PREDOMINATELY VFR UNTIL THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
MAY DETERIORATE AFTER SUNSET SOONER THAN FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND STALL
JUST S OF LONG ISLAND. RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AROUND 04-07Z.
HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MOST
TERMINALS...EWR/TEB/JFK/LGA/ISP.

SW FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL FROPA THIS EVE...BETWEEN 02Z AND
06Z...THEN BECOMING NW. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE.

RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY 4-6 INCHES. KJFK/KISP 6-8 INCHES.
KSWF 1-2 INCHES.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR VIS. AREA OF
HEAVIER RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE SW MAY LEAD TO PERIODIC IFR-LIFR
COND THRU 00Z. SNOW MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER THAN FORECAST. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION 6-8 INCHES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR VIS. AREA OF
HEAVIER RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE SW MAY LEAD TO PERIODIC IFR-LIFR
COND THRU 00Z. SNOW MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER THAN FORECAST. RNUWAY
ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR VIS. AREA OF
HEAVIER RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE SW MAY LEAD TO PERIODIC IFR-LIFR
COND THRU 00Z. SNOW MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER THAN FORECAST. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR VIS. AREA OF
HEAVIER RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE SW MAY LEAD TO PERIODIC IFR-LIFR
COND THRU 00Z. SNOW MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER THAN FORECAST. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR COND AS OF 20Z MAY BE SHORT LIVED AS RAIN
APPROACHES FROM THE SW. EXPECT MAINLY SUB-VFR COND WITH
DETERIORATING COND THIS EVENING. SNOW MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER THAN
FORECAST. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION 4-6 INCHES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR-MVFR VIS THROUGH THE
DAY. SNOW MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER THAN FORECAST. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION
6-8 INCHES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY...-SN WITH IFR TO MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS...MVFR TO VFR
KSWF. N GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
OTHER WATERS REMAINING BELOW SCA THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE EXTENDED
THE SCA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. WINDS ARE MARGINAL SCA ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WHEN THEY LIKELY STAY BELOW. SEAS
HOWEVER WILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS. WINDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FEET OVER THE
OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT SO THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER.

A PERIOD OF SUB SCA CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH
THE WATERS. THE RETURN SW FLOW INCREASES ON SATURDAY...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN DURING THE MORNING AND LASTING
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE FEATURES
THEREAFTER THROUGH MONDAY WILL PROMOTE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. HAVE
GONE BELOW WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SOME OF THIS PERIOD AS IT
APPEARS TO BUILDING TOO MUCH SWELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MMD
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 041731 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1221 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY WITH A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG IT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG
IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED NEAR TERM GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
DOWNWARD A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND CHANCE NORTH. HAVE ALSO RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES. THIS GIVES READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF AROUND 200 KT WILL BE INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING DOWN
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...INTERACTING WITH A SW US LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY
LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS TONIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH
TRACKING NE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 175-200KT UPPER JET.

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN QPF...WITH MODELS WOBBLING BACK AND
FORTH FROM RUN TO RUN ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER QPF AXIS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF FROM SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW UNDER FRONTOGENETIC BANDING...AND QUICKLY
TAPERING TO A DUSTING TO THE NORTH (30 MILE RANGE). HAVE RELIED ON
AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO QPF...WITH 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF QPF ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A MOIST SW FLOW ALL THE
WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC. ENSEMBLE INDICATING HIGHEST PROB OF
.5 INCHES OR GREATER AFTER TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NYC/NJ METRO AND LI.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING APPEARS TO WORK
INTO SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO BE HEAVY AT
TIMES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING THERE...COUPLED WITH STRONG
JET DYNAMICS. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN 6+ INCH AMOUNTS IS FOR LI AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NYC/NJ METRO. WILL UPGRADE TO WARNING IN THIS AREA AFTER
COLLAB WITH PHI AND BOX...FOR A 4 TO 8 INCH SNOWFALL. 00Z ENSEMBLE
RUNS HAVE REDUCED PROB OF 1/2 INCH QPF SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THIS ARE MAY FALL ON THE LOWER
END OF RANGE.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO RAPIDLY
DECREASE WORKING NORTHWARD. WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES FOR
COASTAL SOUTHERN CT...THE REST OF NE NJ...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WILL LEAVE WATCH UP IN THIS AREA...BUT HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL OR LOWER. FOR AREAS FAR N&W OF
NYC...BETWEEN A DUSTING TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...SO NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DRYING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC METRO...ON GUSTY NW WINDS.
WINDCHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT
STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

PERIODS OF RAIN WITH GENERALLY MVFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY. CEILINGS PREDOMINATELY VFR UNTIL THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE AFTER SUNSET SOONER THAN FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND STALL
JUST S OF LONG ISLAND. RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AROUND 03-06Z.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON WHERE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE TONIGHT.

SW FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL FROPA THIS EVE...BETWEEN 02Z AND
06Z...THEN BECOMING NW. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE.

RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY 4-6 INCHES. KSWF 1-2 INCHES.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR IN RAIN. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AFT 22Z SOONER
THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR IN RAIN. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AFT 22Z SOONER
THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR IN RAIN. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AFT 22Z SOONER
THAN FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR IN RAIN. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AFT 22Z
SOONER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR-MVFR VIS THROUGH THE
DAY. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AFT 22Z SOONER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR-MVFR VIS THROUGH THE
DAY. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AFT 22Z SOONER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY...-SN WITH IFR TO MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS...MVFR TO VFR
KSWF. N GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
OTHER WATERS REMAINING BELOW SCA. THE SCA EVENT WILL BE MORE OF A
MARGINAL ONE AND DUE MAINLY TO SEAS BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE OF HELP
TO TRANSPORT MOMENTUM DOWNWARD AND GIVE SOME HIGHER GUSTS THAT
WOULD REACH SCA THRESHOLDS. WATER TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ON THE OCEAN RELATIVE TO OTHER WATERS SO IT WILL BE RELATIVELY
EASIER FOR HIGHER GUSTS TO BE ACHIEVED ON THE OCEAN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IF SCA
CONDS CONTINUE INTO THU AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF RE-
OCCURRENCE THU NIGHT. SO FOR NOW HAVE ONLY RUN SCA UNTIL THU
MORNING.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THEY SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW. WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL
TODAY. LOW POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALTHOUGH SOME PONDING OF WATER
IS EXPECTED WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS DUE TO EXCESS
RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWPACK.

1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ008>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ074-075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ071>073.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ107-108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>106.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...JM/DS
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MMD
MARINE...JM/JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV










000
FXUS61 KOKX 041731 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1221 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY WITH A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG IT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG
IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED NEAR TERM GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
DOWNWARD A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND CHANCE NORTH. HAVE ALSO RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES. THIS GIVES READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF AROUND 200 KT WILL BE INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING DOWN
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...INTERACTING WITH A SW US LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY
LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS TONIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH
TRACKING NE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 175-200KT UPPER JET.

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN QPF...WITH MODELS WOBBLING BACK AND
FORTH FROM RUN TO RUN ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER QPF AXIS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF FROM SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW UNDER FRONTOGENETIC BANDING...AND QUICKLY
TAPERING TO A DUSTING TO THE NORTH (30 MILE RANGE). HAVE RELIED ON
AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO QPF...WITH 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF QPF ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A MOIST SW FLOW ALL THE
WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC. ENSEMBLE INDICATING HIGHEST PROB OF
.5 INCHES OR GREATER AFTER TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NYC/NJ METRO AND LI.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING APPEARS TO WORK
INTO SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO BE HEAVY AT
TIMES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING THERE...COUPLED WITH STRONG
JET DYNAMICS. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN 6+ INCH AMOUNTS IS FOR LI AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NYC/NJ METRO. WILL UPGRADE TO WARNING IN THIS AREA AFTER
COLLAB WITH PHI AND BOX...FOR A 4 TO 8 INCH SNOWFALL. 00Z ENSEMBLE
RUNS HAVE REDUCED PROB OF 1/2 INCH QPF SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THIS ARE MAY FALL ON THE LOWER
END OF RANGE.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO RAPIDLY
DECREASE WORKING NORTHWARD. WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES FOR
COASTAL SOUTHERN CT...THE REST OF NE NJ...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WILL LEAVE WATCH UP IN THIS AREA...BUT HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL OR LOWER. FOR AREAS FAR N&W OF
NYC...BETWEEN A DUSTING TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...SO NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DRYING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC METRO...ON GUSTY NW WINDS.
WINDCHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT
STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

PERIODS OF RAIN WITH GENERALLY MVFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY. CEILINGS PREDOMINATELY VFR UNTIL THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE AFTER SUNSET SOONER THAN FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND STALL
JUST S OF LONG ISLAND. RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AROUND 03-06Z.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON WHERE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE TONIGHT.

SW FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL FROPA THIS EVE...BETWEEN 02Z AND
06Z...THEN BECOMING NW. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE.

RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY 4-6 INCHES. KSWF 1-2 INCHES.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR IN RAIN. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AFT 22Z SOONER
THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR IN RAIN. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AFT 22Z SOONER
THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR IN RAIN. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AFT 22Z SOONER
THAN FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR IN RAIN. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AFT 22Z
SOONER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR-MVFR VIS THROUGH THE
DAY. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AFT 22Z SOONER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR-MVFR VIS THROUGH THE
DAY. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AFT 22Z SOONER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY...-SN WITH IFR TO MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS...MVFR TO VFR
KSWF. N GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
OTHER WATERS REMAINING BELOW SCA. THE SCA EVENT WILL BE MORE OF A
MARGINAL ONE AND DUE MAINLY TO SEAS BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE OF HELP
TO TRANSPORT MOMENTUM DOWNWARD AND GIVE SOME HIGHER GUSTS THAT
WOULD REACH SCA THRESHOLDS. WATER TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ON THE OCEAN RELATIVE TO OTHER WATERS SO IT WILL BE RELATIVELY
EASIER FOR HIGHER GUSTS TO BE ACHIEVED ON THE OCEAN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IF SCA
CONDS CONTINUE INTO THU AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF RE-
OCCURRENCE THU NIGHT. SO FOR NOW HAVE ONLY RUN SCA UNTIL THU
MORNING.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THEY SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW. WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL
TODAY. LOW POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALTHOUGH SOME PONDING OF WATER
IS EXPECTED WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS DUE TO EXCESS
RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWPACK.

1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ008>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ074-075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ071>073.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ107-108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>106.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...JM/DS
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MMD
MARINE...JM/JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV











000
FXUS61 KOKX 041731 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1221 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY WITH A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG IT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG
IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED NEAR TERM GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
DOWNWARD A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND CHANCE NORTH. HAVE ALSO RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES. THIS GIVES READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF AROUND 200 KT WILL BE INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING DOWN
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...INTERACTING WITH A SW US LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY
LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS TONIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH
TRACKING NE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 175-200KT UPPER JET.

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN QPF...WITH MODELS WOBBLING BACK AND
FORTH FROM RUN TO RUN ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER QPF AXIS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF FROM SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW UNDER FRONTOGENETIC BANDING...AND QUICKLY
TAPERING TO A DUSTING TO THE NORTH (30 MILE RANGE). HAVE RELIED ON
AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO QPF...WITH 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF QPF ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A MOIST SW FLOW ALL THE
WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC. ENSEMBLE INDICATING HIGHEST PROB OF
.5 INCHES OR GREATER AFTER TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NYC/NJ METRO AND LI.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING APPEARS TO WORK
INTO SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO BE HEAVY AT
TIMES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING THERE...COUPLED WITH STRONG
JET DYNAMICS. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN 6+ INCH AMOUNTS IS FOR LI AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NYC/NJ METRO. WILL UPGRADE TO WARNING IN THIS AREA AFTER
COLLAB WITH PHI AND BOX...FOR A 4 TO 8 INCH SNOWFALL. 00Z ENSEMBLE
RUNS HAVE REDUCED PROB OF 1/2 INCH QPF SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THIS ARE MAY FALL ON THE LOWER
END OF RANGE.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO RAPIDLY
DECREASE WORKING NORTHWARD. WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES FOR
COASTAL SOUTHERN CT...THE REST OF NE NJ...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WILL LEAVE WATCH UP IN THIS AREA...BUT HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL OR LOWER. FOR AREAS FAR N&W OF
NYC...BETWEEN A DUSTING TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...SO NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DRYING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC METRO...ON GUSTY NW WINDS.
WINDCHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT
STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

PERIODS OF RAIN WITH GENERALLY MVFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY. CEILINGS PREDOMINATELY VFR UNTIL THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE AFTER SUNSET SOONER THAN FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND STALL
JUST S OF LONG ISLAND. RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AROUND 03-06Z.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON WHERE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE TONIGHT.

SW FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL FROPA THIS EVE...BETWEEN 02Z AND
06Z...THEN BECOMING NW. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE.

RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY 4-6 INCHES. KSWF 1-2 INCHES.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR IN RAIN. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AFT 22Z SOONER
THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR IN RAIN. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AFT 22Z SOONER
THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR IN RAIN. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AFT 22Z SOONER
THAN FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR IN RAIN. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AFT 22Z
SOONER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR-MVFR VIS THROUGH THE
DAY. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AFT 22Z SOONER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR-MVFR VIS THROUGH THE
DAY. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AFT 22Z SOONER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY...-SN WITH IFR TO MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS...MVFR TO VFR
KSWF. N GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
OTHER WATERS REMAINING BELOW SCA. THE SCA EVENT WILL BE MORE OF A
MARGINAL ONE AND DUE MAINLY TO SEAS BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE OF HELP
TO TRANSPORT MOMENTUM DOWNWARD AND GIVE SOME HIGHER GUSTS THAT
WOULD REACH SCA THRESHOLDS. WATER TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ON THE OCEAN RELATIVE TO OTHER WATERS SO IT WILL BE RELATIVELY
EASIER FOR HIGHER GUSTS TO BE ACHIEVED ON THE OCEAN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IF SCA
CONDS CONTINUE INTO THU AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF RE-
OCCURRENCE THU NIGHT. SO FOR NOW HAVE ONLY RUN SCA UNTIL THU
MORNING.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THEY SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW. WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL
TODAY. LOW POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALTHOUGH SOME PONDING OF WATER
IS EXPECTED WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS DUE TO EXCESS
RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWPACK.

1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ008>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ074-075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ071>073.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ107-108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>106.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...JM/DS
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MMD
MARINE...JM/JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV










000
FXUS61 KOKX 041731 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1221 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY WITH A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG IT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG
IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED NEAR TERM GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
DOWNWARD A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND CHANCE NORTH. HAVE ALSO RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES. THIS GIVES READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF AROUND 200 KT WILL BE INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING DOWN
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...INTERACTING WITH A SW US LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY
LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS TONIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH
TRACKING NE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 175-200KT UPPER JET.

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN QPF...WITH MODELS WOBBLING BACK AND
FORTH FROM RUN TO RUN ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER QPF AXIS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF FROM SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW UNDER FRONTOGENETIC BANDING...AND QUICKLY
TAPERING TO A DUSTING TO THE NORTH (30 MILE RANGE). HAVE RELIED ON
AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO QPF...WITH 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF QPF ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A MOIST SW FLOW ALL THE
WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC. ENSEMBLE INDICATING HIGHEST PROB OF
.5 INCHES OR GREATER AFTER TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NYC/NJ METRO AND LI.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING APPEARS TO WORK
INTO SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO BE HEAVY AT
TIMES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING THERE...COUPLED WITH STRONG
JET DYNAMICS. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN 6+ INCH AMOUNTS IS FOR LI AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NYC/NJ METRO. WILL UPGRADE TO WARNING IN THIS AREA AFTER
COLLAB WITH PHI AND BOX...FOR A 4 TO 8 INCH SNOWFALL. 00Z ENSEMBLE
RUNS HAVE REDUCED PROB OF 1/2 INCH QPF SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THIS ARE MAY FALL ON THE LOWER
END OF RANGE.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO RAPIDLY
DECREASE WORKING NORTHWARD. WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES FOR
COASTAL SOUTHERN CT...THE REST OF NE NJ...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WILL LEAVE WATCH UP IN THIS AREA...BUT HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL OR LOWER. FOR AREAS FAR N&W OF
NYC...BETWEEN A DUSTING TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...SO NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DRYING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC METRO...ON GUSTY NW WINDS.
WINDCHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT
STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

PERIODS OF RAIN WITH GENERALLY MVFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY. CEILINGS PREDOMINATELY VFR UNTIL THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE AFTER SUNSET SOONER THAN FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND STALL
JUST S OF LONG ISLAND. RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AROUND 03-06Z.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON WHERE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE TONIGHT.

SW FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL FROPA THIS EVE...BETWEEN 02Z AND
06Z...THEN BECOMING NW. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE.

RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY 4-6 INCHES. KSWF 1-2 INCHES.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR IN RAIN. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AFT 22Z SOONER
THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR IN RAIN. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AFT 22Z SOONER
THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR IN RAIN. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AFT 22Z SOONER
THAN FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR IN RAIN. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AFT 22Z
SOONER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR-MVFR VIS THROUGH THE
DAY. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AFT 22Z SOONER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR-MVFR VIS THROUGH THE
DAY. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AFT 22Z SOONER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY...-SN WITH IFR TO MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS...MVFR TO VFR
KSWF. N GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
OTHER WATERS REMAINING BELOW SCA. THE SCA EVENT WILL BE MORE OF A
MARGINAL ONE AND DUE MAINLY TO SEAS BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE OF HELP
TO TRANSPORT MOMENTUM DOWNWARD AND GIVE SOME HIGHER GUSTS THAT
WOULD REACH SCA THRESHOLDS. WATER TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ON THE OCEAN RELATIVE TO OTHER WATERS SO IT WILL BE RELATIVELY
EASIER FOR HIGHER GUSTS TO BE ACHIEVED ON THE OCEAN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IF SCA
CONDS CONTINUE INTO THU AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF RE-
OCCURRENCE THU NIGHT. SO FOR NOW HAVE ONLY RUN SCA UNTIL THU
MORNING.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THEY SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW. WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL
TODAY. LOW POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALTHOUGH SOME PONDING OF WATER
IS EXPECTED WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS DUE TO EXCESS
RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWPACK.

1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ008>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ074-075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ071>073.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ107-108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>106.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...JM/DS
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MMD
MARINE...JM/JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV











000
FXUS61 KOKX 041651
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1151 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY WITH A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG IT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG
IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED NEAR TERM GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
DOWNWARD A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND CHANCE NORTH. HAVE ALSO RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES. THIS GIVES READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF AROUND 200 KT WILL BE INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING DOWN
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...INTERACTING WITH A SW US LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY
LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS TONIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH
TRACKING NE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 175-200KT UPPER JET.

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN QPF...WITH MODELS WOBBLING BACK AND
FORTH FROM RUN TO RUN ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER QPF AXIS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF FROM SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW UNDER FRONTOGENETIC BANDING...AND QUICKLY
TAPERING TO A DUSTING TO THE NORTH (30 MILE RANGE). HAVE RELIED ON
AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO QPF...WITH 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF QPF ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A MOIST SW FLOW ALL THE
WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC. ENSEMBLE INDICATING HIGHEST PROB OF
.5 INCHES OR GREATER AFTER TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NYC/NJ METRO AND LI.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING APPEARS TO WORK
INTO SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO BE HEAVY AT
TIMES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING THERE...COUPLED WITH STRONG
JET DYNAMICS. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN 6+ INCH AMOUNTS IS FOR LI AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NYC/NJ METRO. WILL UPGRADE TO WARNING IN THIS AREA AFTER
COLLAB WITH PHI AND BOX...FOR A 4 TO 8 INCH SNOWFALL. 00Z ENSEMBLE
RUNS HAVE REDUCED PROB OF 1/2 INCH QPF SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THIS ARE MAY FALL ON THE LOWER
END OF RANGE.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO RAPIDLY
DECREASE WORKING NORTHWARD. WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES FOR
COASTAL SOUTHERN CT...THE REST OF NE NJ...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WILL LEAVE WATCH UP IN THIS AREA...BUT HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL OR LOWER. FOR AREAS FAR N&W OF
NYC...BETWEEN A DUSTING TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...SO NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DRYING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC METRO...ON GUSTY NW WINDS.
WINDCHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT
STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

PERIODS OF RAIN WITH GENERALLY MVFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY. CEILINGS PREDOMINATELY VFR UNTIL THIS EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND STALL
JUST S OF LONG ISLAND. RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AROUND 06Z.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON WHERE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE TONIGHT.

SW FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL FROPA THIS EVE...BETWEEN 02Z AND
06Z...THEN BECOMING NW. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR IN RAIN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR IN RAIN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR IN RAIN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS MODERATE...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR IN RAIN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR-MVFR VIS THROUGH THE
DAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR-MVFR VIS THROUGH THE
DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...-SN WITH IFR TO MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS...MVFR TO VFR
KSWF. N GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
OTHER WATERS REMAINING BELOW SCA. THE SCA EVENT WILL BE MORE OF A
MARGINAL ONE AND DUE MAINLY TO SEAS BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE OF HELP
TO TRANSPORT MOMENTUM DOWNWARD AND GIVE SOME HIGHER GUSTS THAT
WOULD REACH SCA THRESHOLDS. WATER TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ON THE OCEAN RELATIVE TO OTHER WATERS SO IT WILL BE RELATIVELY
EASIER FOR HIGHER GUSTS TO BE ACHIEVED ON THE OCEAN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IF SCA
CONDS CONTINUE INTO THU AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF RE-
OCCURRENCE THU NIGHT. SO FOR NOW HAVE ONLY RUN SCA UNTIL THU
MORNING.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THEY SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW. WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL
TODAY. LOW POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALTHOUGH SOME PONDING OF WATER
IS EXPECTED WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS DUE TO EXCESS
RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWPACK.

1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ008>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ074-075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ071>073.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ107-108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>106.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...JM/DS
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MMD
MARINE...JM/JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV









000
FXUS61 KOKX 041651
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1151 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY WITH A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG IT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG
IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED NEAR TERM GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
DOWNWARD A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND CHANCE NORTH. HAVE ALSO RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES. THIS GIVES READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF AROUND 200 KT WILL BE INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING DOWN
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...INTERACTING WITH A SW US LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY
LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS TONIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH
TRACKING NE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 175-200KT UPPER JET.

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN QPF...WITH MODELS WOBBLING BACK AND
FORTH FROM RUN TO RUN ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER QPF AXIS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF FROM SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW UNDER FRONTOGENETIC BANDING...AND QUICKLY
TAPERING TO A DUSTING TO THE NORTH (30 MILE RANGE). HAVE RELIED ON
AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO QPF...WITH 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF QPF ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A MOIST SW FLOW ALL THE
WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC. ENSEMBLE INDICATING HIGHEST PROB OF
.5 INCHES OR GREATER AFTER TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NYC/NJ METRO AND LI.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING APPEARS TO WORK
INTO SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO BE HEAVY AT
TIMES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING THERE...COUPLED WITH STRONG
JET DYNAMICS. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN 6+ INCH AMOUNTS IS FOR LI AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NYC/NJ METRO. WILL UPGRADE TO WARNING IN THIS AREA AFTER
COLLAB WITH PHI AND BOX...FOR A 4 TO 8 INCH SNOWFALL. 00Z ENSEMBLE
RUNS HAVE REDUCED PROB OF 1/2 INCH QPF SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THIS ARE MAY FALL ON THE LOWER
END OF RANGE.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO RAPIDLY
DECREASE WORKING NORTHWARD. WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES FOR
COASTAL SOUTHERN CT...THE REST OF NE NJ...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WILL LEAVE WATCH UP IN THIS AREA...BUT HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL OR LOWER. FOR AREAS FAR N&W OF
NYC...BETWEEN A DUSTING TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...SO NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DRYING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC METRO...ON GUSTY NW WINDS.
WINDCHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT
STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

PERIODS OF RAIN WITH GENERALLY MVFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY. CEILINGS PREDOMINATELY VFR UNTIL THIS EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND STALL
JUST S OF LONG ISLAND. RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AROUND 06Z.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON WHERE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE TONIGHT.

SW FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL FROPA THIS EVE...BETWEEN 02Z AND
06Z...THEN BECOMING NW. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR IN RAIN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR IN RAIN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR IN RAIN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS MODERATE...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR IN RAIN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR-MVFR VIS THROUGH THE
DAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR-MVFR VIS THROUGH THE
DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...-SN WITH IFR TO MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS...MVFR TO VFR
KSWF. N GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
OTHER WATERS REMAINING BELOW SCA. THE SCA EVENT WILL BE MORE OF A
MARGINAL ONE AND DUE MAINLY TO SEAS BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE OF HELP
TO TRANSPORT MOMENTUM DOWNWARD AND GIVE SOME HIGHER GUSTS THAT
WOULD REACH SCA THRESHOLDS. WATER TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ON THE OCEAN RELATIVE TO OTHER WATERS SO IT WILL BE RELATIVELY
EASIER FOR HIGHER GUSTS TO BE ACHIEVED ON THE OCEAN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IF SCA
CONDS CONTINUE INTO THU AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF RE-
OCCURRENCE THU NIGHT. SO FOR NOW HAVE ONLY RUN SCA UNTIL THU
MORNING.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THEY SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW. WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL
TODAY. LOW POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALTHOUGH SOME PONDING OF WATER
IS EXPECTED WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS DUE TO EXCESS
RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWPACK.

1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ008>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ074-075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ071>073.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ107-108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>106.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...JM/DS
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MMD
MARINE...JM/JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 041449
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
949 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY WITH A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG IT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG
IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. FEW REPORTS OF SLEET MIXED IN WITH
SOME OF THE RAIN THIS MORNING SO CONTINUING WITH A CHANCE OF SLEET
THROUGH NOON. WSW FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. ENTIRE CWA ABOVE FREEZING AND TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY THIS
MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS REACH THE LOW 40S NEAR THE COAST...BUT
OVERALL HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EXPECTED.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF AROUND 200 KT WILL BE APPROACHING
THROUGH THE DAY. INTERMITTENT RAIN CONTINUES WITH THE JET
NEARBY...BUT WILL BE RATHER LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING DOWN
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...INTERACTING WITH A SW US LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY
LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS TONIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH
TRACKING NE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 175-200KT UPPER JET.

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN QPF...WITH MODELS WOBBLING BACK AND
FORTH FROM RUN TO RUN ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER QPF AXIS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF FROM SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW UNDER FRONTOGENETIC BANDING...AND QUICKLY
TAPERING TO A DUSTING TO THE NORTH (30 MILE RANGE). HAVE RELIED ON
AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO QPF...WITH 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF QPF ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A MOIST SW FLOW ALL THE
WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC. ENSEMBLE INDICATING HIGHEST PROB OF
.5 INCHES OR GREATER AFTER TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NYC/NJ METRO AND LI.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING APPEARS TO WORK
INTO SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO BE HEAVY AT
TIMES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING THERE...COUPLED WITH STRONG
JET DYNAMICS. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN 6+ INCH AMOUNTS IS FOR LI AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NYC/NJ METRO. WILL UPGRADE TO WARNING IN THIS AREA AFTER
COLLAB WITH PHI AND BOX...FOR A 4 TO 8 INCH SNOWFALL. 00Z ENSEMBLE
RUNS HAVE REDUCED PROB OF 1/2 INCH QPF SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THIS ARE MAY FALL ON THE LOWER
END OF RANGE.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO RAPIDLY
DECREASE WORKING NORTHWARD. WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES FOR
COASTAL SOUTHERN CT...THE REST OF NE NJ...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WILL LEAVE WATCH UP IN THIS AREA...BUT HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL OR LOWER. FOR AREAS FAR N&W OF
NYC...BETWEEN A DUSTING TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...SO NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DRYING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC METRO...ON GUSTY NW WINDS.
WINDCHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT
STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

PERIODS OF RAIN WITH GENERALLY MVFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY. CEILINGS PREDOMINATELY VFR UNTIL THIS EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND STALL
JUST S OF LONG ISLAND. RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AROUND 06Z.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON WHERE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE TONIGHT.

SW FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL FROPA THIS EVE...BETWEEN 02Z AND
06Z...THEN BECOMING NW. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR IN RAIN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR IN RAIN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR IN RAIN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS MODERATE...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR IN RAIN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR-MVFR VIS THROUGH THE
DAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR-MVFR VIS THROUGH THE
DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...-SN WITH IFR TO MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS...MVFR TO VFR
KSWF. N GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
OTHER WATERS REMAINING BELOW SCA. THE SCA EVENT WILL BE MORE OF A
MARGINAL ONE AND DUE MAINLY TO SEAS BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE OF HELP
TO TRANSPORT MOMENTUM DOWNWARD AND GIVE SOME HIGHER GUSTS THAT
WOULD REACH SCA THRESHOLDS. WATER TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ON THE OCEAN RELATIVE TO OTHER WATERS SO IT WILL BE RELATIVELY
EASIER FOR HIGHER GUSTS TO BE ACHIEVED ON THE OCEAN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IF SCA
CONDS CONTINUE INTO THU AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF RE-
OCCURRENCE THU NIGHT. SO FOR NOW HAVE ONLY RUN SCA UNTIL THU
MORNING.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THEY SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW. WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL
TODAY. LOW POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALTHOUGH SOME PONDING OF WATER
IS EXPECTED WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS DUE TO EXCESS
RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWPACK.

1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ008>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ074-075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ071>073.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ107-108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>106.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...JM/DS
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MMD/24
MARINE...JM/JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV









000
FXUS61 KOKX 041449
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
949 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY WITH A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG IT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG
IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. FEW REPORTS OF SLEET MIXED IN WITH
SOME OF THE RAIN THIS MORNING SO CONTINUING WITH A CHANCE OF SLEET
THROUGH NOON. WSW FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. ENTIRE CWA ABOVE FREEZING AND TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY THIS
MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS REACH THE LOW 40S NEAR THE COAST...BUT
OVERALL HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EXPECTED.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF AROUND 200 KT WILL BE APPROACHING
THROUGH THE DAY. INTERMITTENT RAIN CONTINUES WITH THE JET
NEARBY...BUT WILL BE RATHER LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING DOWN
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...INTERACTING WITH A SW US LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY
LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS TONIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH
TRACKING NE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 175-200KT UPPER JET.

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN QPF...WITH MODELS WOBBLING BACK AND
FORTH FROM RUN TO RUN ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER QPF AXIS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF FROM SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW UNDER FRONTOGENETIC BANDING...AND QUICKLY
TAPERING TO A DUSTING TO THE NORTH (30 MILE RANGE). HAVE RELIED ON
AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO QPF...WITH 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF QPF ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A MOIST SW FLOW ALL THE
WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC. ENSEMBLE INDICATING HIGHEST PROB OF
.5 INCHES OR GREATER AFTER TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NYC/NJ METRO AND LI.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING APPEARS TO WORK
INTO SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO BE HEAVY AT
TIMES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING THERE...COUPLED WITH STRONG
JET DYNAMICS. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN 6+ INCH AMOUNTS IS FOR LI AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NYC/NJ METRO. WILL UPGRADE TO WARNING IN THIS AREA AFTER
COLLAB WITH PHI AND BOX...FOR A 4 TO 8 INCH SNOWFALL. 00Z ENSEMBLE
RUNS HAVE REDUCED PROB OF 1/2 INCH QPF SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THIS ARE MAY FALL ON THE LOWER
END OF RANGE.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO RAPIDLY
DECREASE WORKING NORTHWARD. WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES FOR
COASTAL SOUTHERN CT...THE REST OF NE NJ...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WILL LEAVE WATCH UP IN THIS AREA...BUT HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL OR LOWER. FOR AREAS FAR N&W OF
NYC...BETWEEN A DUSTING TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...SO NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DRYING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC METRO...ON GUSTY NW WINDS.
WINDCHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT
STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

PERIODS OF RAIN WITH GENERALLY MVFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY. CEILINGS PREDOMINATELY VFR UNTIL THIS EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND STALL
JUST S OF LONG ISLAND. RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AROUND 06Z.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON WHERE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE TONIGHT.

SW FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL FROPA THIS EVE...BETWEEN 02Z AND
06Z...THEN BECOMING NW. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR IN RAIN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR IN RAIN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR IN RAIN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS MODERATE...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS. VIS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR IN RAIN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR-MVFR VIS THROUGH THE
DAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR-MVFR VIS THROUGH THE
DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...-SN WITH IFR TO MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS...MVFR TO VFR
KSWF. N GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
OTHER WATERS REMAINING BELOW SCA. THE SCA EVENT WILL BE MORE OF A
MARGINAL ONE AND DUE MAINLY TO SEAS BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE OF HELP
TO TRANSPORT MOMENTUM DOWNWARD AND GIVE SOME HIGHER GUSTS THAT
WOULD REACH SCA THRESHOLDS. WATER TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ON THE OCEAN RELATIVE TO OTHER WATERS SO IT WILL BE RELATIVELY
EASIER FOR HIGHER GUSTS TO BE ACHIEVED ON THE OCEAN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IF SCA
CONDS CONTINUE INTO THU AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF RE-
OCCURRENCE THU NIGHT. SO FOR NOW HAVE ONLY RUN SCA UNTIL THU
MORNING.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THEY SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW. WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL
TODAY. LOW POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALTHOUGH SOME PONDING OF WATER
IS EXPECTED WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS DUE TO EXCESS
RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWPACK.

1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ008>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ074-075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ071>073.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ107-108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>106.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...JM/DS
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MMD/24
MARINE...JM/JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV










000
FXUS61 KOKX 041245
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
745 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY WITH A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG IT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG
IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. INCREASED POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION.

A WSW FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. PRETTY
MUCH A STEADY STATE ENVIRONMENT WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING A FEW
DEGREES AND INTERMITTENT RAIN. THIS SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF AROUND 200 KT WILL BE APPROACHING
THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN. THE INTENSITY WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT DUE TO THE AREA NOT BEING IN A FAVORABLE REGION OF
LIFT RELATIVE TO THE JET STREAK PLACEMENT BUT INCREASED DIVERGENCE
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAIN FIELD TO EXPAND.

TEMPERATURES USED WERE A COMBINATION OF GMOS...NAM12 AND
GFS40...HOLDING WITHIN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING DOWN
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...INTERACTING WITH A SW US LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY
LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS TONIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH
TRACKING NE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 175-200KT UPPER JET.

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN QPF...WITH MODELS WOBBLING BACK AND
FORTH FROM RUN TO RUN ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER QPF AXIS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF FROM SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW UNDER FRONTOGENETIC BANDING...AND QUICKLY
TAPERING TO A DUSTING TO THE NORTH (30 MILE RANGE). HAVE RELIED ON
AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO QPF...WITH 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF QPF ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A MOIST SW FLOW ALL THE
WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC. ENSEMBLE INDICATING HIGHEST PROB OF
.5 INCHES OR GREATER AFTER TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NYC/NJ METRO AND LI.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING APPEARS TO WORK
INTO SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO BE HEAVY AT
TIMES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING THERE...COUPLED WITH STRONG
JET DYNAMICS. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN 6+ INCH AMOUNTS IS FOR LI AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NYC/NJ METRO. WILL UPGRADE TO WARNING IN THIS AREA AFTER
COLLAB WITH PHI AND BOX...FOR A 4 TO 8 INCH SNOWFALL. 00Z ENSEMBLE
RUNS HAVE REDUCED PROB OF 1/2 INCH QPF SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THIS ARE MAY FALL ON THE LOWER
END OF RANGE.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO RAPIDLY
DECREASE WORKING NORTHWARD. WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES FOR
COASTAL SOUTHERN CT...THE REST OF NE NJ...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WILL LEAVE WATCH UP IN THIS AREA...BUT HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL OR LOWER. FOR AREAS FAR N&W OF
NYC...BETWEEN A DUSTING TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...SO NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DRYING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC METRO...ON GUSTY NW WINDS.
WINDCHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT
STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST IS VERY CHALLENGING OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SEVERAL OF THE TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT-LIVED. HOWEVER...CONDS
COULD VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE DAY. GUIDANCE IS ALL
OVER THE PLACE.

COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND
STALL JUST S OF LONG ISLAND. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANGE OVER FROM
RAIN BACK TO SNOW AROUND 06Z. HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN
WITH WHERE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PCPN FIELD WILL BE TONIGHT
WHICH RESULTS IN HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN CONDS.

SW FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL FROPA THIS EVE...BETWEEN 02Z AND
06Z...THEN BECOMING NW. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS MODERATE...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...-SN WITH IFR TO MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS...MVFR TO VFR
KSWF. N GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
OTHER WATERS REMAINING BELOW SCA. THE SCA EVENT WILL BE MORE OF A
MARGINAL ONE AND DUE MAINLY TO SEAS BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE OF HELP
TO TRANSPORT MOMENTUM DOWNWARD AND GIVE SOME HIGHER GUSTS THAT
WOULD REACH SCA THRESHOLDS. WATER TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ON THE OCEAN RELATIVE TO OTHER WATERS SO IT WILL BE RELATIVELY
EASIER FOR HIGHER GUSTS TO BE ACHIEVED ON THE OCEAN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IF SCA
CONDS CONTINUE INTO THU AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF RE-
OCCURRENCE THU NIGHT. SO FOR NOW HAVE ONLY RUN SCA UNTIL THU
MORNING.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THEY SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW. WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL
TODAY. LOW POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALTHOUGH SOME PONDING OF WATER
IS EXPECTED WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS DUE TO EXCESS
RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWPACK.

1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ008>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ074-075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ071>073.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ107-108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>106.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 041245
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
745 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY WITH A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG IT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG
IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. INCREASED POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION.

A WSW FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. PRETTY
MUCH A STEADY STATE ENVIRONMENT WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING A FEW
DEGREES AND INTERMITTENT RAIN. THIS SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF AROUND 200 KT WILL BE APPROACHING
THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN. THE INTENSITY WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT DUE TO THE AREA NOT BEING IN A FAVORABLE REGION OF
LIFT RELATIVE TO THE JET STREAK PLACEMENT BUT INCREASED DIVERGENCE
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAIN FIELD TO EXPAND.

TEMPERATURES USED WERE A COMBINATION OF GMOS...NAM12 AND
GFS40...HOLDING WITHIN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING DOWN
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...INTERACTING WITH A SW US LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY
LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS TONIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH
TRACKING NE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 175-200KT UPPER JET.

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN QPF...WITH MODELS WOBBLING BACK AND
FORTH FROM RUN TO RUN ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER QPF AXIS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF FROM SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW UNDER FRONTOGENETIC BANDING...AND QUICKLY
TAPERING TO A DUSTING TO THE NORTH (30 MILE RANGE). HAVE RELIED ON
AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO QPF...WITH 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF QPF ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A MOIST SW FLOW ALL THE
WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC. ENSEMBLE INDICATING HIGHEST PROB OF
.5 INCHES OR GREATER AFTER TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NYC/NJ METRO AND LI.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING APPEARS TO WORK
INTO SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO BE HEAVY AT
TIMES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING THERE...COUPLED WITH STRONG
JET DYNAMICS. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN 6+ INCH AMOUNTS IS FOR LI AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NYC/NJ METRO. WILL UPGRADE TO WARNING IN THIS AREA AFTER
COLLAB WITH PHI AND BOX...FOR A 4 TO 8 INCH SNOWFALL. 00Z ENSEMBLE
RUNS HAVE REDUCED PROB OF 1/2 INCH QPF SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THIS ARE MAY FALL ON THE LOWER
END OF RANGE.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO RAPIDLY
DECREASE WORKING NORTHWARD. WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES FOR
COASTAL SOUTHERN CT...THE REST OF NE NJ...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WILL LEAVE WATCH UP IN THIS AREA...BUT HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL OR LOWER. FOR AREAS FAR N&W OF
NYC...BETWEEN A DUSTING TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...SO NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DRYING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC METRO...ON GUSTY NW WINDS.
WINDCHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT
STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST IS VERY CHALLENGING OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SEVERAL OF THE TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT-LIVED. HOWEVER...CONDS
COULD VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE DAY. GUIDANCE IS ALL
OVER THE PLACE.

COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND
STALL JUST S OF LONG ISLAND. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANGE OVER FROM
RAIN BACK TO SNOW AROUND 06Z. HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN
WITH WHERE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PCPN FIELD WILL BE TONIGHT
WHICH RESULTS IN HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN CONDS.

SW FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL FROPA THIS EVE...BETWEEN 02Z AND
06Z...THEN BECOMING NW. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS MODERATE...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...-SN WITH IFR TO MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS...MVFR TO VFR
KSWF. N GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
OTHER WATERS REMAINING BELOW SCA. THE SCA EVENT WILL BE MORE OF A
MARGINAL ONE AND DUE MAINLY TO SEAS BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE OF HELP
TO TRANSPORT MOMENTUM DOWNWARD AND GIVE SOME HIGHER GUSTS THAT
WOULD REACH SCA THRESHOLDS. WATER TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ON THE OCEAN RELATIVE TO OTHER WATERS SO IT WILL BE RELATIVELY
EASIER FOR HIGHER GUSTS TO BE ACHIEVED ON THE OCEAN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IF SCA
CONDS CONTINUE INTO THU AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF RE-
OCCURRENCE THU NIGHT. SO FOR NOW HAVE ONLY RUN SCA UNTIL THU
MORNING.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THEY SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW. WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL
TODAY. LOW POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALTHOUGH SOME PONDING OF WATER
IS EXPECTED WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS DUE TO EXCESS
RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWPACK.

1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ008>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ074-075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ071>073.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ107-108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>106.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 041228
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
728 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY WITH A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG IT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG
IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. INCREASED POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION.

A WSW FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. PRETTY
MUCH A STEADY STATE ENVIRONMENT WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING A FEW
DEGREES AND INTERMITTENT RAIN. THIS SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF AROUND 200 KT WILL BE APPROACHING
THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN. THE INTENSITY WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT DUE TO THE AREA NOT BEING IN A FAVORABLE REGION OF
LIFT RELATIVE TO THE JET STREAK PLACEMENT BUT INCREASED DIVERGENCE
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAIN FIELD TO EXPAND.

TEMPERATURES USED WERE A COMBINATION OF GMOS...NAM12 AND
GFS40...HOLDING WITHIN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING DOWN
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...INTERACTING WITH A SW US LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY
LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS TONIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH
TRACKING NE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 175-200KT UPPER JET.

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN QPF...WITH MODELS WOBBLING BACK AND
FORTH FROM RUN TO RUN ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER QPF AXIS.
RELYING ON A ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO QPF...WITH 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF QPF
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A MOIST SW FLOW
ALL THE WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC. ENSEMBLE INDICATING HIGHEST
PROB OF .5 INCHES OR GREATER AFTER TRANSITION FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF NYC/NJ METRO AND LI.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING THERE...COUPLED WITH STRONG JET
DYNAMICS. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN 6+ INCH AMOUNTS IS FOR LI AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NYC/NJ METRO. WILL UPGRADE TO WARNING IN THIS AREA AFTER
COLLAB WITH PHI AND BOX. POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR COASTAL
SOUTHERN CT...THE REST OF NE NJ...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY. WILL LEAVE WATCH IN THESE AREAS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 6"
BUT HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL. WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN
PRECIP ACROSS AREAS FAR N&W OF NYC...BETWEEN 1 TO 4 INCHES...
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DRYING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC METRO...ON GUSTY NW WINDS.
WINDCHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT
STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST IS VERY CHALLENGING OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SEVERAL OF THE TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT-LIVED. HOWEVER...CONDS
COULD VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE DAY. GUIDANCE IS ALL
OVER THE PLACE.

COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND
STALL JUST S OF LONG ISLAND. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANGE OVER FROM
RAIN BACK TO SNOW AROUND 06Z. HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN
WITH WHERE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PCPN FIELD WILL BE TONIGHT
WHICH RESULTS IN HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN CONDS.

SW FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL FROPA THIS EVE...BETWEEN 02Z AND
06Z...THEN BECOMING NW. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS MODERATE...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...-SN WITH IFR TO MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS...MVFR TO VFR
KSWF. N GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
OTHER WATERS REMAINING BELOW SCA. THE SCA EVENT WILL BE MORE OF A
MARGINAL ONE AND DUE MAINLY TO SEAS BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE OF HELP
TO TRANSPORT MOMENTUM DOWNWARD AND GIVE SOME HIGHER GUSTS THAT
WOULD REACH SCA THRESHOLDS. WATER TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ON THE OCEAN RELATIVE TO OTHER WATERS SO IT WILL BE RELATIVELY
EASIER FOR HIGHER GUSTS TO BE ACHIEVED ON THE OCEAN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IF SCA
CONDS CONTINUE INTO THU AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF RE-
OCCURRENCE THU NIGHT. SO FOR NOW HAVE ONLY RUN SCA UNTIL THU
MORNING.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THEY SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW. WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL
TODAY. LOW POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALTHOUGH SOME PONDING OF WATER
IS EXPECTED WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS DUE TO EXCESS
RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWPACK.

1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR CTZ008>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ074-075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ071>073.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ107-108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>106.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV










000
FXUS61 KOKX 041228
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
728 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY WITH A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG IT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG
IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. INCREASED POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION.

A WSW FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. PRETTY
MUCH A STEADY STATE ENVIRONMENT WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING A FEW
DEGREES AND INTERMITTENT RAIN. THIS SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF AROUND 200 KT WILL BE APPROACHING
THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN. THE INTENSITY WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT DUE TO THE AREA NOT BEING IN A FAVORABLE REGION OF
LIFT RELATIVE TO THE JET STREAK PLACEMENT BUT INCREASED DIVERGENCE
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAIN FIELD TO EXPAND.

TEMPERATURES USED WERE A COMBINATION OF GMOS...NAM12 AND
GFS40...HOLDING WITHIN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING DOWN
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...INTERACTING WITH A SW US LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY
LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS TONIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH
TRACKING NE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 175-200KT UPPER JET.

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN QPF...WITH MODELS WOBBLING BACK AND
FORTH FROM RUN TO RUN ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER QPF AXIS.
RELYING ON A ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO QPF...WITH 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF QPF
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A MOIST SW FLOW
ALL THE WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC. ENSEMBLE INDICATING HIGHEST
PROB OF .5 INCHES OR GREATER AFTER TRANSITION FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF NYC/NJ METRO AND LI.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING THERE...COUPLED WITH STRONG JET
DYNAMICS. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN 6+ INCH AMOUNTS IS FOR LI AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NYC/NJ METRO. WILL UPGRADE TO WARNING IN THIS AREA AFTER
COLLAB WITH PHI AND BOX. POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR COASTAL
SOUTHERN CT...THE REST OF NE NJ...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY. WILL LEAVE WATCH IN THESE AREAS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 6"
BUT HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL. WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN
PRECIP ACROSS AREAS FAR N&W OF NYC...BETWEEN 1 TO 4 INCHES...
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DRYING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC METRO...ON GUSTY NW WINDS.
WINDCHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT
STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST IS VERY CHALLENGING OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SEVERAL OF THE TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT-LIVED. HOWEVER...CONDS
COULD VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE DAY. GUIDANCE IS ALL
OVER THE PLACE.

COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND
STALL JUST S OF LONG ISLAND. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANGE OVER FROM
RAIN BACK TO SNOW AROUND 06Z. HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN
WITH WHERE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PCPN FIELD WILL BE TONIGHT
WHICH RESULTS IN HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN CONDS.

SW FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL FROPA THIS EVE...BETWEEN 02Z AND
06Z...THEN BECOMING NW. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS MODERATE...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...-SN WITH IFR TO MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS...MVFR TO VFR
KSWF. N GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
OTHER WATERS REMAINING BELOW SCA. THE SCA EVENT WILL BE MORE OF A
MARGINAL ONE AND DUE MAINLY TO SEAS BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE OF HELP
TO TRANSPORT MOMENTUM DOWNWARD AND GIVE SOME HIGHER GUSTS THAT
WOULD REACH SCA THRESHOLDS. WATER TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ON THE OCEAN RELATIVE TO OTHER WATERS SO IT WILL BE RELATIVELY
EASIER FOR HIGHER GUSTS TO BE ACHIEVED ON THE OCEAN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IF SCA
CONDS CONTINUE INTO THU AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF RE-
OCCURRENCE THU NIGHT. SO FOR NOW HAVE ONLY RUN SCA UNTIL THU
MORNING.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THEY SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW. WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL
TODAY. LOW POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALTHOUGH SOME PONDING OF WATER
IS EXPECTED WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS DUE TO EXCESS
RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWPACK.

1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR CTZ008>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ074-075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ071>073.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ107-108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>106.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV









000
FXUS61 KOKX 041228
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
728 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY WITH A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG IT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG
IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. INCREASED POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION.

A WSW FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. PRETTY
MUCH A STEADY STATE ENVIRONMENT WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING A FEW
DEGREES AND INTERMITTENT RAIN. THIS SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF AROUND 200 KT WILL BE APPROACHING
THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN. THE INTENSITY WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT DUE TO THE AREA NOT BEING IN A FAVORABLE REGION OF
LIFT RELATIVE TO THE JET STREAK PLACEMENT BUT INCREASED DIVERGENCE
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAIN FIELD TO EXPAND.

TEMPERATURES USED WERE A COMBINATION OF GMOS...NAM12 AND
GFS40...HOLDING WITHIN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING DOWN
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...INTERACTING WITH A SW US LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY
LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS TONIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH
TRACKING NE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 175-200KT UPPER JET.

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN QPF...WITH MODELS WOBBLING BACK AND
FORTH FROM RUN TO RUN ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER QPF AXIS.
RELYING ON A ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO QPF...WITH 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF QPF
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A MOIST SW FLOW
ALL THE WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC. ENSEMBLE INDICATING HIGHEST
PROB OF .5 INCHES OR GREATER AFTER TRANSITION FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF NYC/NJ METRO AND LI.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING THERE...COUPLED WITH STRONG JET
DYNAMICS. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN 6+ INCH AMOUNTS IS FOR LI AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NYC/NJ METRO. WILL UPGRADE TO WARNING IN THIS AREA AFTER
COLLAB WITH PHI AND BOX. POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR COASTAL
SOUTHERN CT...THE REST OF NE NJ...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY. WILL LEAVE WATCH IN THESE AREAS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 6"
BUT HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL. WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN
PRECIP ACROSS AREAS FAR N&W OF NYC...BETWEEN 1 TO 4 INCHES...
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DRYING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC METRO...ON GUSTY NW WINDS.
WINDCHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT
STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST IS VERY CHALLENGING OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SEVERAL OF THE TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT-LIVED. HOWEVER...CONDS
COULD VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE DAY. GUIDANCE IS ALL
OVER THE PLACE.

COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND
STALL JUST S OF LONG ISLAND. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANGE OVER FROM
RAIN BACK TO SNOW AROUND 06Z. HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN
WITH WHERE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PCPN FIELD WILL BE TONIGHT
WHICH RESULTS IN HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN CONDS.

SW FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL FROPA THIS EVE...BETWEEN 02Z AND
06Z...THEN BECOMING NW. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS MODERATE...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...-SN WITH IFR TO MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS...MVFR TO VFR
KSWF. N GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
OTHER WATERS REMAINING BELOW SCA. THE SCA EVENT WILL BE MORE OF A
MARGINAL ONE AND DUE MAINLY TO SEAS BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE OF HELP
TO TRANSPORT MOMENTUM DOWNWARD AND GIVE SOME HIGHER GUSTS THAT
WOULD REACH SCA THRESHOLDS. WATER TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ON THE OCEAN RELATIVE TO OTHER WATERS SO IT WILL BE RELATIVELY
EASIER FOR HIGHER GUSTS TO BE ACHIEVED ON THE OCEAN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IF SCA
CONDS CONTINUE INTO THU AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF RE-
OCCURRENCE THU NIGHT. SO FOR NOW HAVE ONLY RUN SCA UNTIL THU
MORNING.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THEY SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW. WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL
TODAY. LOW POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALTHOUGH SOME PONDING OF WATER
IS EXPECTED WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS DUE TO EXCESS
RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWPACK.

1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR CTZ008>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ074-075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ071>073.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ107-108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>106.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV










000
FXUS61 KOKX 041228
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
728 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY WITH A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG IT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG
IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. INCREASED POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION.

A WSW FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. PRETTY
MUCH A STEADY STATE ENVIRONMENT WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING A FEW
DEGREES AND INTERMITTENT RAIN. THIS SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF AROUND 200 KT WILL BE APPROACHING
THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN. THE INTENSITY WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT DUE TO THE AREA NOT BEING IN A FAVORABLE REGION OF
LIFT RELATIVE TO THE JET STREAK PLACEMENT BUT INCREASED DIVERGENCE
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAIN FIELD TO EXPAND.

TEMPERATURES USED WERE A COMBINATION OF GMOS...NAM12 AND
GFS40...HOLDING WITHIN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING DOWN
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...INTERACTING WITH A SW US LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY
LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS TONIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH
TRACKING NE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 175-200KT UPPER JET.

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN QPF...WITH MODELS WOBBLING BACK AND
FORTH FROM RUN TO RUN ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER QPF AXIS.
RELYING ON A ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO QPF...WITH 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF QPF
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A MOIST SW FLOW
ALL THE WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC. ENSEMBLE INDICATING HIGHEST
PROB OF .5 INCHES OR GREATER AFTER TRANSITION FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF NYC/NJ METRO AND LI.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING THERE...COUPLED WITH STRONG JET
DYNAMICS. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN 6+ INCH AMOUNTS IS FOR LI AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NYC/NJ METRO. WILL UPGRADE TO WARNING IN THIS AREA AFTER
COLLAB WITH PHI AND BOX. POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR COASTAL
SOUTHERN CT...THE REST OF NE NJ...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY. WILL LEAVE WATCH IN THESE AREAS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 6"
BUT HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL. WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN
PRECIP ACROSS AREAS FAR N&W OF NYC...BETWEEN 1 TO 4 INCHES...
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DRYING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC METRO...ON GUSTY NW WINDS.
WINDCHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT
STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST IS VERY CHALLENGING OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SEVERAL OF THE TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT-LIVED. HOWEVER...CONDS
COULD VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE DAY. GUIDANCE IS ALL
OVER THE PLACE.

COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND
STALL JUST S OF LONG ISLAND. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANGE OVER FROM
RAIN BACK TO SNOW AROUND 06Z. HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN
WITH WHERE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PCPN FIELD WILL BE TONIGHT
WHICH RESULTS IN HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN CONDS.

SW FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL FROPA THIS EVE...BETWEEN 02Z AND
06Z...THEN BECOMING NW. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS MODERATE...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...-SN WITH IFR TO MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS...MVFR TO VFR
KSWF. N GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
OTHER WATERS REMAINING BELOW SCA. THE SCA EVENT WILL BE MORE OF A
MARGINAL ONE AND DUE MAINLY TO SEAS BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE OF HELP
TO TRANSPORT MOMENTUM DOWNWARD AND GIVE SOME HIGHER GUSTS THAT
WOULD REACH SCA THRESHOLDS. WATER TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ON THE OCEAN RELATIVE TO OTHER WATERS SO IT WILL BE RELATIVELY
EASIER FOR HIGHER GUSTS TO BE ACHIEVED ON THE OCEAN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IF SCA
CONDS CONTINUE INTO THU AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF RE-
OCCURRENCE THU NIGHT. SO FOR NOW HAVE ONLY RUN SCA UNTIL THU
MORNING.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THEY SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW. WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL
TODAY. LOW POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALTHOUGH SOME PONDING OF WATER
IS EXPECTED WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS DUE TO EXCESS
RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWPACK.

1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR CTZ008>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ074-075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ071>073.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ107-108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>106.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV









000
FXUS61 KOKX 040930
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
430 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY WITH A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG IT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG
IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WSW FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. PRETTY
MUCH A STEADY STATE ENVIRONMENT WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING A FEW
DEGREES AND INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF AROUND 200 KT WILL BE APPROACHING
THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN. THE INTENSITY WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT DUE TO THE AREA NOT BEING IN A FAVORABLE REGION OF
LIFT RELATIVE TO THE JET STREAK PLACEMENT BUT INCREASED DIVERGENCE
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAIN FIELD TO EXPAND.

TEMPERATURES USED WERE A COMBINATION OF GMOS...NAM12 AND GFS40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING DOWN
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...INTERACTING WITH A SW US LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY
LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS TONIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH
...TRACKING NE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 175-200KT UPPER JET.

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN QPF...WITH MODELS WOBBLING BACK AND
FORTH FROM RUN TO RUN ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER QPF AXIS.
RELYING ON A ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO QPF...WITH 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF QPF
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A MOIST SW FLOW
ALL THE WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC. ENSEMBLE INDICATING HIGHEST
PROB OF .5 INCHES OR GREATER AFTER TRANSITION FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF NYC/NJ METRO AND LI.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH POTETNIAL FOR SNOW TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING THERE...COUPLED WITH STRONG JET
DYNAMICS. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN 6+ INCH AMOUNTS IS FOR LI AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NYC/NJ METRO. WILL UPGRADE TO WARNING IN THIS AREA AFTER
COLLAB WITH PHI AND BOX. POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR COASTAL
SOUTHERN CT...THE REST OF NE NJ...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY. WILL LEAVE WATCH IN THESE AREAS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 6"
BUT HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL. WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN
PRECIP ACROSS AREAS FAR N&W OF NYC...BETWEEN 1 TO 4 INCHES...
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DRYING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC METRO...ON GUSTY NW WINDS.
WINDCHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT
STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

PCPN HAS ENDED FOR THE MOMENT AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KGON...WHICH
WILL FOLLOW SUIT OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS WELL. HI RES MODELS ARE
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING PCPN TODAY...BUT EXPECTING AT LEAST
2-3 HOURS OF DRY WEATHER. WATCHING NEXT AREA OVER CENTRAL
PA...ALTHOUGH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS HAS BEEN DRYING OUT AS IT
ADVANCES EWD. THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO REACH WESTERN
TERMINALS AROUND 10-11Z...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS WILL MATERIALIZE. ALL TERMINALS ARE NOW ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK...SO EXPECT PLAIN RAIN EVERYWHERE.

ON AND OFF LIGHT RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

IFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY
BOUNCE AROUND TO LIFR AND MVFR AT TIMES. IFR OR MVFR LIKELY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH STRATUS MAY SCATTER...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. IF THAT DOES OCCUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR A TIME.

SW WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS SHIFT TO THE SW-W. LLWS THROUGH 11Z OR SO.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: EXACT TIMING OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY IS
UNCERTAIN. FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THIS
MORNING...AND MVFR AND VFR THIS AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: EXACT TIMING OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY IS
UNCERTAIN. FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THIS
MORNING...AND MVFR AND VFR THIS AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: EXACT TIMING OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY IS
UNCERTAIN. FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THIS
MORNING...AND MVFR AND VFR THIS AFTN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS MODERATE...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: EXACT TIMING OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY IS
UNCERTAIN. FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THIS
MORNING...AND MVFR AND VFR THIS AFTN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: EXACT TIMING OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY IS
UNCERTAIN. FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THIS
MORNING...AND MVFR AND VFR THIS AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: EXACT TIMING OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY IS
UNCERTAIN. FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THIS
MORNING...AND MVFR AND VFR THIS AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.TONIGHT-THURSDAY...BECOMING IFR WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW
AROUND MIDNIGHT. CHC N GUSTS TO 20 KT ON THURSDAY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
OTHER WATERS REMAINING BELOW SCA. THE SCA EVENT WILL BE MORE OF A
MARGINAL ONE BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE HELP TRANSPORT MOMENTUM
DOWN AND GIVE SOME HIGHER GUSTS THAT WOULD REACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
WATER TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON THE OCEAN RELATIVE TO
OTHER WATERS SO IT WILL BE RELATIVELY EASIER FOR HIGHER GUSTS TO
BE ACHIEVED ON THE OCEAN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES
TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IF SCA CONDS
CONTINUE INTO THU AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
RE-OCCURRENCE THU NIGHT. SO FOR NOW HAVE ONLY RUN SCA UNTIL THU
MORNING.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THEY SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW. WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THE REMAINING
RAINFALL TODAY. LOW POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALTHOUGH SOME PONDING
OF WATER IS EXPECTED WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS DUE TO
EXCESS RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWPACK.

1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR CTZ008>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ074-075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ071>073.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ107-108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>106.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 040930
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
430 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY WITH A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG IT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG
IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WSW FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. PRETTY
MUCH A STEADY STATE ENVIRONMENT WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING A FEW
DEGREES AND INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF AROUND 200 KT WILL BE APPROACHING
THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN. THE INTENSITY WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT DUE TO THE AREA NOT BEING IN A FAVORABLE REGION OF
LIFT RELATIVE TO THE JET STREAK PLACEMENT BUT INCREASED DIVERGENCE
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAIN FIELD TO EXPAND.

TEMPERATURES USED WERE A COMBINATION OF GMOS...NAM12 AND GFS40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING DOWN
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...INTERACTING WITH A SW US LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY
LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS TONIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH
...TRACKING NE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 175-200KT UPPER JET.

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN QPF...WITH MODELS WOBBLING BACK AND
FORTH FROM RUN TO RUN ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER QPF AXIS.
RELYING ON A ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO QPF...WITH 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF QPF
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A MOIST SW FLOW
ALL THE WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC. ENSEMBLE INDICATING HIGHEST
PROB OF .5 INCHES OR GREATER AFTER TRANSITION FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF NYC/NJ METRO AND LI.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH POTETNIAL FOR SNOW TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING THERE...COUPLED WITH STRONG JET
DYNAMICS. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN 6+ INCH AMOUNTS IS FOR LI AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NYC/NJ METRO. WILL UPGRADE TO WARNING IN THIS AREA AFTER
COLLAB WITH PHI AND BOX. POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR COASTAL
SOUTHERN CT...THE REST OF NE NJ...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY. WILL LEAVE WATCH IN THESE AREAS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 6"
BUT HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL. WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN
PRECIP ACROSS AREAS FAR N&W OF NYC...BETWEEN 1 TO 4 INCHES...
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DRYING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC METRO...ON GUSTY NW WINDS.
WINDCHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT
STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

PCPN HAS ENDED FOR THE MOMENT AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KGON...WHICH
WILL FOLLOW SUIT OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS WELL. HI RES MODELS ARE
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING PCPN TODAY...BUT EXPECTING AT LEAST
2-3 HOURS OF DRY WEATHER. WATCHING NEXT AREA OVER CENTRAL
PA...ALTHOUGH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS HAS BEEN DRYING OUT AS IT
ADVANCES EWD. THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO REACH WESTERN
TERMINALS AROUND 10-11Z...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS WILL MATERIALIZE. ALL TERMINALS ARE NOW ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK...SO EXPECT PLAIN RAIN EVERYWHERE.

ON AND OFF LIGHT RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

IFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY
BOUNCE AROUND TO LIFR AND MVFR AT TIMES. IFR OR MVFR LIKELY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH STRATUS MAY SCATTER...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. IF THAT DOES OCCUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR A TIME.

SW WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS SHIFT TO THE SW-W. LLWS THROUGH 11Z OR SO.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: EXACT TIMING OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY IS
UNCERTAIN. FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THIS
MORNING...AND MVFR AND VFR THIS AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: EXACT TIMING OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY IS
UNCERTAIN. FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THIS
MORNING...AND MVFR AND VFR THIS AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: EXACT TIMING OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY IS
UNCERTAIN. FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THIS
MORNING...AND MVFR AND VFR THIS AFTN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS MODERATE...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: EXACT TIMING OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY IS
UNCERTAIN. FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THIS
MORNING...AND MVFR AND VFR THIS AFTN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: EXACT TIMING OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY IS
UNCERTAIN. FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THIS
MORNING...AND MVFR AND VFR THIS AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: EXACT TIMING OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY IS
UNCERTAIN. FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY VARY BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THIS
MORNING...AND MVFR AND VFR THIS AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.TONIGHT-THURSDAY...BECOMING IFR WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW
AROUND MIDNIGHT. CHC N GUSTS TO 20 KT ON THURSDAY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH
OTHER WATERS REMAINING BELOW SCA. THE SCA EVENT WILL BE MORE OF A
MARGINAL ONE BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE HELP TRANSPORT MOMENTUM
DOWN AND GIVE SOME HIGHER GUSTS THAT WOULD REACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
WATER TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON THE OCEAN RELATIVE TO
OTHER WATERS SO IT WILL BE RELATIVELY EASIER FOR HIGHER GUSTS TO
BE ACHIEVED ON THE OCEAN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES
TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IF SCA CONDS
CONTINUE INTO THU AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
RE-OCCURRENCE THU NIGHT. SO FOR NOW HAVE ONLY RUN SCA UNTIL THU
MORNING.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THEY SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW. WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THE REMAINING
RAINFALL TODAY. LOW POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALTHOUGH SOME PONDING
OF WATER IS EXPECTED WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS DUE TO
EXCESS RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWPACK.

1/4 TO 3/4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR CTZ008>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ074-075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ071>073.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ107-108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>106.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 040623
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED BY A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY.
A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION...LOOKS TO HAVE CLEARED LONG
ISLAND AND NEW YORK AS TEMPS REMAIN EITHER STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE.
TEMPS THERE ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ON AVERAGE. ELSEWHERE TO
THE NORTH AND WEST...TEMPS ARE SLOWLY WARMING BUT THERE ARE SOME
LOCATIONS STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. REMOVED EASTERN
BERGEN NJ AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER NY FROM WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AS TEMPS THERE HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING.

MAIN REASON FOR KEEPING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR REST OF THE
REGION PARTICULARLY THE MORE NORTHERN AND INTERIOR LOCATIONS WAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN AND SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE 5 AM. OVERALL MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT...LEAVING A MORE
SPOTTY AND SCATTERED AREAL COVERAGE BEHIND IT IN A GENERAL LULL IN
PRECIP ACTIVITY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON WED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE-HALF INCH DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THREAT CONTINUES FOR AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NYC/LONG
ISLAND/NE NJ/N COAST OF LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND ALL OF FAR SE CT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF A COLD FRONT
PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF A 180-200KT 250 HPA JET AND PASSING OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVES AT 700 HPA...THEN APPROACH OF 500 HPA SHORTWAVE
LATER THURSDAY.

MODELS ALSO AGREE IN SHIFTING PRIMARY AXIS OF QPF JUST TO THE S OF
LONG ISLAND...THIS SERVERS TO LIMIT THE THREAT TO N INTERIOR
ZONES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF N NEW LONDON COUNTY...GIVEN FORECAST
WSW TO ENE ORIENTATION OF THE QPF AXIS.

MODELS ALSO HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF
SLEET MIXED IN DURING THE TRANSITION. THE CMC AND NAM REMAIN THE
SLOWEST TO COOL THE LOW LEVELS...BUT NOW ARE ONLY A FEW HOURS SLOWER
THAN A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND. GIVEN TREND IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS...USED A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND TO DETERMINE CHANGE OVER
TIMING. BASICALLY EXPECT THE TRANSITION TO OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY IN
THE EVENING OVER N INTERIOR ZONES...AND CLOSER TO AROUND
MIDNIGHT/SHORTLY THEREAFTER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.

THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON 1) HOW FAR N/W OF NYC
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL...AND 2) WHETHER OR NOT THE QPF
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER TO THE S. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON 1) THE EXACT TIMING OF CHANGE OVER 2) HOW MUCH SLEET
IN THE TRANSITION WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS 3) THE EXACT END TIME OF
PRECIPITATION - MODELS HAVE EXTENDED THE DURATION FOR THE MOST PART
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE CMC CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. HAVE DISCOUNTED CMC AS OUTLIER SOLUTION ON THIS FOR
NOW...BUT DO NOTE IT HAS BEEN ADVERTISING A LONGER DURATION SINCE
YESTERDAY.

FOR NOW HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
7PM THURSDAY FOR NYC/LONG ISLAND/NE NJ/S WESTCHESTER COUNTY/ALL OF
COASTAL CT PLUS N NEW LONDON COUNTY AS WELL...FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

500 HPA TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN PUSHING OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING EXPECTED HAVE GONE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...EXCEPT FOR A LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY OVER THE SE
1/2 OF THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. GFS 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WERE BLENDED IN AS WELL THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THEY HAVE FARED WELL
THIS YEAR SO FAR DURING COLD ADVECTION PATTERNS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS 15-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RATHER TRANQUIL IN THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE FACT THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY WILL SEND A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE REGION...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. THESE FRONTS WILL BE WEAK...WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. IN FACT...AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE COLD
FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH THE AREA DRY...WHILE
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S REGION-WIDE.
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. WITH NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY...PRECEDED BY A WARM
FRONT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT.

LINGERING PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN MOST TERMINALS...EXCEPT
LINGERING -FZRA AT KSWF AND KGON. ON AND OFF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY.

IFR SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BOUNCE AROUND
TO LIFR AND MVFR AT TIMES.

IFR OR MVFR LIKELY CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH STRATUS MAY
SCATTER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. IF THAT DOES OCCUR...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME.

SW WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS SHIFT TO THE SW-W. LLWS IS EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.TONIGHT-THURSDAY...BECOMING IFR WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW
AROUND MIDNIGHT. CHC N GUSTS TO 20 KT ON THURSDAY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST ON THE OCEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE W/SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE OVERNIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. WAVEWATCH COULD BE UNDERDONE HERE BY A FOOT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST
OF MORICHES INLET ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ON ALL COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL.

A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS...ONE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. THESE
FRONTS WILL BE WEAK...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ON
THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW.
WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TOTAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF IT BEING IN FORM OF WINTRY PRECIP. SOME
PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS
DUE TO EXCESS RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWPACK.

FROM AROUND .4 TO .9 INCHES OF QPF IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH MOST OF THIS FALLING IN
THE FORM OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
AMOUNTS...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY THAN HIGHER AMOUNTS. THERE
IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE RAIN CHANGES TO FROZEN
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND. THE LONGER
THIS TAKES...IT INCREASES THE RISK OF POSSIBLE PONDING OF WATER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR CTZ008>012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103-105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JP/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MALOIT/JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 040623
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED BY A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY.
A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION...LOOKS TO HAVE CLEARED LONG
ISLAND AND NEW YORK AS TEMPS REMAIN EITHER STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE.
TEMPS THERE ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ON AVERAGE. ELSEWHERE TO
THE NORTH AND WEST...TEMPS ARE SLOWLY WARMING BUT THERE ARE SOME
LOCATIONS STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. REMOVED EASTERN
BERGEN NJ AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER NY FROM WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AS TEMPS THERE HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING.

MAIN REASON FOR KEEPING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR REST OF THE
REGION PARTICULARLY THE MORE NORTHERN AND INTERIOR LOCATIONS WAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN AND SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE 5 AM. OVERALL MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT...LEAVING A MORE
SPOTTY AND SCATTERED AREAL COVERAGE BEHIND IT IN A GENERAL LULL IN
PRECIP ACTIVITY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON WED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE-HALF INCH DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THREAT CONTINUES FOR AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NYC/LONG
ISLAND/NE NJ/N COAST OF LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND ALL OF FAR SE CT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF A COLD FRONT
PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF A 180-200KT 250 HPA JET AND PASSING OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVES AT 700 HPA...THEN APPROACH OF 500 HPA SHORTWAVE
LATER THURSDAY.

MODELS ALSO AGREE IN SHIFTING PRIMARY AXIS OF QPF JUST TO THE S OF
LONG ISLAND...THIS SERVERS TO LIMIT THE THREAT TO N INTERIOR
ZONES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF N NEW LONDON COUNTY...GIVEN FORECAST
WSW TO ENE ORIENTATION OF THE QPF AXIS.

MODELS ALSO HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF
SLEET MIXED IN DURING THE TRANSITION. THE CMC AND NAM REMAIN THE
SLOWEST TO COOL THE LOW LEVELS...BUT NOW ARE ONLY A FEW HOURS SLOWER
THAN A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND. GIVEN TREND IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS...USED A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND TO DETERMINE CHANGE OVER
TIMING. BASICALLY EXPECT THE TRANSITION TO OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY IN
THE EVENING OVER N INTERIOR ZONES...AND CLOSER TO AROUND
MIDNIGHT/SHORTLY THEREAFTER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.

THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON 1) HOW FAR N/W OF NYC
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL...AND 2) WHETHER OR NOT THE QPF
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER TO THE S. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON 1) THE EXACT TIMING OF CHANGE OVER 2) HOW MUCH SLEET
IN THE TRANSITION WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS 3) THE EXACT END TIME OF
PRECIPITATION - MODELS HAVE EXTENDED THE DURATION FOR THE MOST PART
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE CMC CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. HAVE DISCOUNTED CMC AS OUTLIER SOLUTION ON THIS FOR
NOW...BUT DO NOTE IT HAS BEEN ADVERTISING A LONGER DURATION SINCE
YESTERDAY.

FOR NOW HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
7PM THURSDAY FOR NYC/LONG ISLAND/NE NJ/S WESTCHESTER COUNTY/ALL OF
COASTAL CT PLUS N NEW LONDON COUNTY AS WELL...FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

500 HPA TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN PUSHING OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING EXPECTED HAVE GONE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...EXCEPT FOR A LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY OVER THE SE
1/2 OF THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. GFS 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WERE BLENDED IN AS WELL THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THEY HAVE FARED WELL
THIS YEAR SO FAR DURING COLD ADVECTION PATTERNS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS 15-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RATHER TRANQUIL IN THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE FACT THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY WILL SEND A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE REGION...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. THESE FRONTS WILL BE WEAK...WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. IN FACT...AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE COLD
FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH THE AREA DRY...WHILE
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S REGION-WIDE.
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. WITH NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY...PRECEDED BY A WARM
FRONT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT.

LINGERING PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN MOST TERMINALS...EXCEPT
LINGERING -FZRA AT KSWF AND KGON. ON AND OFF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY.

IFR SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BOUNCE AROUND
TO LIFR AND MVFR AT TIMES.

IFR OR MVFR LIKELY CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH STRATUS MAY
SCATTER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. IF THAT DOES OCCUR...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME.

SW WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS SHIFT TO THE SW-W. LLWS IS EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.TONIGHT-THURSDAY...BECOMING IFR WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW
AROUND MIDNIGHT. CHC N GUSTS TO 20 KT ON THURSDAY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST ON THE OCEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE W/SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE OVERNIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. WAVEWATCH COULD BE UNDERDONE HERE BY A FOOT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST
OF MORICHES INLET ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ON ALL COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL.

A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS...ONE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. THESE
FRONTS WILL BE WEAK...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ON
THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW.
WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TOTAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF IT BEING IN FORM OF WINTRY PRECIP. SOME
PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS
DUE TO EXCESS RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWPACK.

FROM AROUND .4 TO .9 INCHES OF QPF IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH MOST OF THIS FALLING IN
THE FORM OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
AMOUNTS...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY THAN HIGHER AMOUNTS. THERE
IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE RAIN CHANGES TO FROZEN
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND. THE LONGER
THIS TAKES...IT INCREASES THE RISK OF POSSIBLE PONDING OF WATER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR CTZ008>012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103-105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JP/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MALOIT/JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 040623
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED BY A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY.
A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION...LOOKS TO HAVE CLEARED LONG
ISLAND AND NEW YORK AS TEMPS REMAIN EITHER STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE.
TEMPS THERE ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ON AVERAGE. ELSEWHERE TO
THE NORTH AND WEST...TEMPS ARE SLOWLY WARMING BUT THERE ARE SOME
LOCATIONS STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. REMOVED EASTERN
BERGEN NJ AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER NY FROM WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AS TEMPS THERE HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING.

MAIN REASON FOR KEEPING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR REST OF THE
REGION PARTICULARLY THE MORE NORTHERN AND INTERIOR LOCATIONS WAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN AND SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE 5 AM. OVERALL MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT...LEAVING A MORE
SPOTTY AND SCATTERED AREAL COVERAGE BEHIND IT IN A GENERAL LULL IN
PRECIP ACTIVITY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON WED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE-HALF INCH DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THREAT CONTINUES FOR AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NYC/LONG
ISLAND/NE NJ/N COAST OF LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND ALL OF FAR SE CT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF A COLD FRONT
PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF A 180-200KT 250 HPA JET AND PASSING OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVES AT 700 HPA...THEN APPROACH OF 500 HPA SHORTWAVE
LATER THURSDAY.

MODELS ALSO AGREE IN SHIFTING PRIMARY AXIS OF QPF JUST TO THE S OF
LONG ISLAND...THIS SERVERS TO LIMIT THE THREAT TO N INTERIOR
ZONES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF N NEW LONDON COUNTY...GIVEN FORECAST
WSW TO ENE ORIENTATION OF THE QPF AXIS.

MODELS ALSO HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF
SLEET MIXED IN DURING THE TRANSITION. THE CMC AND NAM REMAIN THE
SLOWEST TO COOL THE LOW LEVELS...BUT NOW ARE ONLY A FEW HOURS SLOWER
THAN A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND. GIVEN TREND IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS...USED A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND TO DETERMINE CHANGE OVER
TIMING. BASICALLY EXPECT THE TRANSITION TO OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY IN
THE EVENING OVER N INTERIOR ZONES...AND CLOSER TO AROUND
MIDNIGHT/SHORTLY THEREAFTER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.

THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON 1) HOW FAR N/W OF NYC
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL...AND 2) WHETHER OR NOT THE QPF
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER TO THE S. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON 1) THE EXACT TIMING OF CHANGE OVER 2) HOW MUCH SLEET
IN THE TRANSITION WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS 3) THE EXACT END TIME OF
PRECIPITATION - MODELS HAVE EXTENDED THE DURATION FOR THE MOST PART
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE CMC CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. HAVE DISCOUNTED CMC AS OUTLIER SOLUTION ON THIS FOR
NOW...BUT DO NOTE IT HAS BEEN ADVERTISING A LONGER DURATION SINCE
YESTERDAY.

FOR NOW HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
7PM THURSDAY FOR NYC/LONG ISLAND/NE NJ/S WESTCHESTER COUNTY/ALL OF
COASTAL CT PLUS N NEW LONDON COUNTY AS WELL...FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

500 HPA TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN PUSHING OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING EXPECTED HAVE GONE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...EXCEPT FOR A LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY OVER THE SE
1/2 OF THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. GFS 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WERE BLENDED IN AS WELL THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THEY HAVE FARED WELL
THIS YEAR SO FAR DURING COLD ADVECTION PATTERNS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS 15-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RATHER TRANQUIL IN THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE FACT THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY WILL SEND A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE REGION...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. THESE FRONTS WILL BE WEAK...WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. IN FACT...AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE COLD
FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH THE AREA DRY...WHILE
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S REGION-WIDE.
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. WITH NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY...PRECEDED BY A WARM
FRONT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT.

LINGERING PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN MOST TERMINALS...EXCEPT
LINGERING -FZRA AT KSWF AND KGON. ON AND OFF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY.

IFR SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BOUNCE AROUND
TO LIFR AND MVFR AT TIMES.

IFR OR MVFR LIKELY CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH STRATUS MAY
SCATTER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. IF THAT DOES OCCUR...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME.

SW WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS SHIFT TO THE SW-W. LLWS IS EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.TONIGHT-THURSDAY...BECOMING IFR WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW
AROUND MIDNIGHT. CHC N GUSTS TO 20 KT ON THURSDAY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST ON THE OCEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE W/SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE OVERNIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. WAVEWATCH COULD BE UNDERDONE HERE BY A FOOT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST
OF MORICHES INLET ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ON ALL COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL.

A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS...ONE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. THESE
FRONTS WILL BE WEAK...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ON
THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW.
WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TOTAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF IT BEING IN FORM OF WINTRY PRECIP. SOME
PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS
DUE TO EXCESS RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWPACK.

FROM AROUND .4 TO .9 INCHES OF QPF IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH MOST OF THIS FALLING IN
THE FORM OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
AMOUNTS...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY THAN HIGHER AMOUNTS. THERE
IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE RAIN CHANGES TO FROZEN
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND. THE LONGER
THIS TAKES...IT INCREASES THE RISK OF POSSIBLE PONDING OF WATER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR CTZ008>012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103-105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JP/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MALOIT/JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 040352
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1052 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED BY A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD
FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF NE
NJ...NYC...AND LONG ISLAND...AND FREEZING RAIN HAS CHANGED TO
PLAIN RAIN THERE. WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS. FOR THE REST OF THE REGION...WILL CARRY
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM. FOR SOME AREAS...THIS IS
AN EXTENSION IN TIME. THE TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN IS TAKING A BIT
LONGER TO OCCUR THERE.

TEMPS WILL THEN GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND BY
DAYBREAK...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON WED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE-HALF INCH DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THREAT CONTINUES FOR AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NYC/LONG
ISLAND/NE NJ/N COAST OF LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND ALL OF FAR SE CT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF A COLD FRONT
PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF A 180-200KT 250 HPA JET AND PASSING OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVES AT 700 HPA...THEN APPROACH OF 500 HPA SHORTWAVE
LATER THURSDAY.

MODELS ALSO AGREE IN SHIFTING PRIMARY AXIS OF QPF JUST TO THE S OF
LONG ISLAND...THIS SERVERS TO LIMIT THE THREAT TO N INTERIOR
ZONES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF N NEW LONDON COUNTY...GIVEN FORECAST
WSW TO ENE ORIENTATION OF THE QPF AXIS.

MODELS ALSO HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF
SLEET MIXED IN DURING THE TRANSITION. THE CMC AND NAM REMAIN THE
SLOWEST TO COOL THE LOW LEVELS...BUT NOW ARE ONLY A FEW HOURS SLOWER
THAN A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND. GIVEN TREND IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS...USED A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND TO DETERMINE CHANGE OVER
TIMING. BASICALLY EXPECT THE TRANSITION TO OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY IN
THE EVENING OVER N INTERIOR ZONES...AND CLOSER TO AROUND
MIDNIGHT/SHORTLY THEREAFTER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.

THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON 1) HOW FAR N/W OF NYC
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL...AND 2) WHETHER OR NOT THE QPF
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER TO THE S. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON 1) THE EXACT TIMING OF CHANGE OVER 2) HOW MUCH SLEET
IN THE TRANSITION WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS 3) THE EXACT END TIME OF
PRECIPITATION - MODELS HAVE EXTENDED THE DURATION FOR THE MOST PART
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE CMC CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. HAVE DISCOUNTED CMC AS OUTLIER SOLUTION ON THIS FOR
NOW...BUT DO NOTE IT HAS BEEN ADVERTISING A LONGER DURATION SINCE
YESTERDAY.

FOR NOW HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
7PM THURSDAY FOR NYC/LONG ISLAND/NE NJ/S WESTCHESTER COUNTY/ALL OF
COASTAL CT PLUS N NEW LONDON COUNTY AS WELL...FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

500 HPA TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN PUSHING OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING EXPECTED HAVE GONE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...EXCEPT FOR A LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY OVER THE SE
1/2 OF THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. GFS 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WERE BLENDED IN AS WELL THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THEY HAVE FARED WELL
THIS YEAR SO FAR DURING COLD ADVECTION PATTERNS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS 15-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RATHER TRANQUIL IN THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE FACT THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY WILL SEND A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE REGION...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. THESE FRONTS WILL BE WEAK...WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. IN FACT...AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE COLD
FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH THE AREA DRY...WHILE
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S REGION-WIDE.
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. WITH NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH LATE. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN MOST TERMINALS...EXCEPT
KSWF...KBDR AND KGON.

THIS TRANSITION OCCURS EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT...WITH ON AND OFF
LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

IFR SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BOUNCE AROUND
TO LIFR AND MVFR AT TIMES.

IFR OR MVFR LIKELY CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
STRATUS MAY SCATTER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. IF THAT DOES
OCCUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME.

S WINDS SHIFT SW-W OVERNIGHT. LLWS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

W WINDS WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...BECOMING IFR WITH A TRANSITION BACK
TO SNOW LATE EVENING/NEAR MIDNIGHT. CHC N GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THURSDAY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY IN THE W/SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. WAVEWATCH COULD BE UNDERDONE HERE BY A FOOT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST
OF MORICHES INLET ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ON ALL COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL.

A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS...ONE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. THESE
FRONTS WILL BE WEAK...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ON
THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW.
WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TOTAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF IT BEING IN FORM OF WINTRY PRECIP. SOME
PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS
DUE TO EXCESS RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWPACK.

FROM AROUND .4 TO .9 INCHES OF QPF IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH MOST OF THIS FALLING IN
THE FORM OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
AMOUNTS...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY THAN HIGHER AMOUNTS. THERE
IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE RAIN CHANGES TO FROZEN
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND. THE LONGER
THIS TAKES...IT INCREASES THE RISK OF POSSIBLE PONDING OF WATER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ008>012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ067>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-
     004-103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JP/DW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MALOIT/JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW










000
FXUS61 KOKX 040352
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1052 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED BY A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD
FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF NE
NJ...NYC...AND LONG ISLAND...AND FREEZING RAIN HAS CHANGED TO
PLAIN RAIN THERE. WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS. FOR THE REST OF THE REGION...WILL CARRY
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM. FOR SOME AREAS...THIS IS
AN EXTENSION IN TIME. THE TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN IS TAKING A BIT
LONGER TO OCCUR THERE.

TEMPS WILL THEN GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND BY
DAYBREAK...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON WED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE-HALF INCH DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THREAT CONTINUES FOR AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NYC/LONG
ISLAND/NE NJ/N COAST OF LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND ALL OF FAR SE CT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF A COLD FRONT
PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF A 180-200KT 250 HPA JET AND PASSING OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVES AT 700 HPA...THEN APPROACH OF 500 HPA SHORTWAVE
LATER THURSDAY.

MODELS ALSO AGREE IN SHIFTING PRIMARY AXIS OF QPF JUST TO THE S OF
LONG ISLAND...THIS SERVERS TO LIMIT THE THREAT TO N INTERIOR
ZONES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF N NEW LONDON COUNTY...GIVEN FORECAST
WSW TO ENE ORIENTATION OF THE QPF AXIS.

MODELS ALSO HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF
SLEET MIXED IN DURING THE TRANSITION. THE CMC AND NAM REMAIN THE
SLOWEST TO COOL THE LOW LEVELS...BUT NOW ARE ONLY A FEW HOURS SLOWER
THAN A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND. GIVEN TREND IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS...USED A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND TO DETERMINE CHANGE OVER
TIMING. BASICALLY EXPECT THE TRANSITION TO OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY IN
THE EVENING OVER N INTERIOR ZONES...AND CLOSER TO AROUND
MIDNIGHT/SHORTLY THEREAFTER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.

THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON 1) HOW FAR N/W OF NYC
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL...AND 2) WHETHER OR NOT THE QPF
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER TO THE S. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON 1) THE EXACT TIMING OF CHANGE OVER 2) HOW MUCH SLEET
IN THE TRANSITION WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS 3) THE EXACT END TIME OF
PRECIPITATION - MODELS HAVE EXTENDED THE DURATION FOR THE MOST PART
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE CMC CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. HAVE DISCOUNTED CMC AS OUTLIER SOLUTION ON THIS FOR
NOW...BUT DO NOTE IT HAS BEEN ADVERTISING A LONGER DURATION SINCE
YESTERDAY.

FOR NOW HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
7PM THURSDAY FOR NYC/LONG ISLAND/NE NJ/S WESTCHESTER COUNTY/ALL OF
COASTAL CT PLUS N NEW LONDON COUNTY AS WELL...FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

500 HPA TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN PUSHING OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING EXPECTED HAVE GONE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...EXCEPT FOR A LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY OVER THE SE
1/2 OF THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. GFS 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WERE BLENDED IN AS WELL THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THEY HAVE FARED WELL
THIS YEAR SO FAR DURING COLD ADVECTION PATTERNS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS 15-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RATHER TRANQUIL IN THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE FACT THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY WILL SEND A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE REGION...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. THESE FRONTS WILL BE WEAK...WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. IN FACT...AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE COLD
FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH THE AREA DRY...WHILE
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S REGION-WIDE.
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. WITH NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH LATE. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN MOST TERMINALS...EXCEPT
KSWF...KBDR AND KGON.

THIS TRANSITION OCCURS EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT...WITH ON AND OFF
LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

IFR SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BOUNCE AROUND
TO LIFR AND MVFR AT TIMES.

IFR OR MVFR LIKELY CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
STRATUS MAY SCATTER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. IF THAT DOES
OCCUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME.

S WINDS SHIFT SW-W OVERNIGHT. LLWS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

W WINDS WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...BECOMING IFR WITH A TRANSITION BACK
TO SNOW LATE EVENING/NEAR MIDNIGHT. CHC N GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THURSDAY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY IN THE W/SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. WAVEWATCH COULD BE UNDERDONE HERE BY A FOOT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST
OF MORICHES INLET ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ON ALL COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL.

A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS...ONE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. THESE
FRONTS WILL BE WEAK...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ON
THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW.
WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TOTAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF IT BEING IN FORM OF WINTRY PRECIP. SOME
PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS
DUE TO EXCESS RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWPACK.

FROM AROUND .4 TO .9 INCHES OF QPF IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH MOST OF THIS FALLING IN
THE FORM OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
AMOUNTS...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY THAN HIGHER AMOUNTS. THERE
IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE RAIN CHANGES TO FROZEN
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND. THE LONGER
THIS TAKES...IT INCREASES THE RISK OF POSSIBLE PONDING OF WATER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ008>012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ067>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-
     004-103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JP/DW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MALOIT/JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 040232
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
932 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED BY A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD
FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE TRANSITION CONTINUES...AS SNOW HAS PRETTY MUCH CHANGED TO
FREEZING RAIN OR PLAIN RAIN. WITH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK...AND PROBABLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES COLDER AT THE SURFACE...
WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UP UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
BY THEN...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND PRECIP SHOULD BE
PLAIN RAIN.

TEMPS WILL THEN GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND BY
DAYBREAK...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON WED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE-HALF INCH DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THREAT CONTINUES FOR AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NYC/LONG
ISLAND/NE NJ/N COAST OF LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND ALL OF FAR SE CT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF A COLD FRONT
PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF A 180-200KT 250 HPA JET AND PASSING OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVES AT 700 HPA...THEN APPROACH OF 500 HPA SHORTWAVE
LATER THURSDAY.

MODELS ALSO AGREE IN SHIFTING PRIMARY AXIS OF QPF JUST TO THE S OF
LONG ISLAND...THIS SERVERS TO LIMIT THE THREAT TO N INTERIOR
ZONES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF N NEW LONDON COUNTY...GIVEN FORECAST
WSW TO ENE ORIENTATION OF THE QPF AXIS.

MODELS ALSO HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF
SLEET MIXED IN DURING THE TRANSITION. THE CMC AND NAM REMAIN THE
SLOWEST TO COOL THE LOW LEVELS...BUT NOW ARE ONLY A FEW HOURS SLOWER
THAN A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND. GIVEN TREND IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS...USED A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND TO DETERMINE CHANGE OVER
TIMING. BASICALLY EXPECT THE TRANSITION TO OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY IN
THE EVENING OVER N INTERIOR ZONES...AND CLOSER TO AROUND
MIDNIGHT/SHORTLY THEREAFTER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.

THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON 1) HOW FAR N/W OF NYC
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL...AND 2) WHETHER OR NOT THE QPF
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER TO THE S. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON 1) THE EXACT TIMING OF CHANGE OVER 2) HOW MUCH SLEET
IN THE TRANSITION WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS 3) THE EXACT END TIME OF
PRECIPITATION - MODELS HAVE EXTENDED THE DURATION FOR THE MOST PART
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE CMC CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. HAVE DISCOUNTED CMC AS OUTLIER SOLUTION ON THIS FOR
NOW...BUT DO NOTE IT HAS BEEN ADVERTISING A LONGER DURATION SINCE
YESTERDAY.

FOR NOW HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
7PM THURSDAY FOR NYC/LONG ISLAND/NE NJ/S WESTCHESTER COUNTY/ALL OF
COASTAL CT PLUS N NEW LONDON COUNTY AS WELL...FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

500 HPA TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN PUSHING OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING EXPECTED HAVE GONE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...EXCEPT FOR A LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY OVER THE SE
1/2 OF THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. GFS 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WERE BLENDED IN AS WELL THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THEY HAVE FARED WELL
THIS YEAR SO FAR DURING COLD ADVECTION PATTERNS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS 15-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RATHER TRANQUIL IN THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE FACT THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY WILL SEND A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE REGION...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. THESE FRONTS WILL BE WEAK...WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. IN FACT...AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE COLD
FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH THE AREA DRY...WHILE
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S REGION-WIDE.
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. WITH NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH LATE. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN MOST TERMINALS...EXCEPT
KSWF...KBDR AND KGON.

THIS TRANSITION OCCURS EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT...WITH ON AND OFF
LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

IFR SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BOUNCE AROUND
TO LIFR AND MVFR AT TIMES.

IFR OR MVFR LIKELY CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
STRATUS MAY SCATTER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. IF THAT DOES
OCCUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME.

S WINDS SHIFT SW-W OVERNIGHT. LLWS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

W WINDS WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...BECOMING IFR WITH A TRANSITION BACK
TO SNOW LATE EVENING/NEAR MIDNIGHT. CHC N GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THURSDAY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY IN THE W/SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. WAVEWATCH COULD BE UNDERDONE HERE BY A FOOT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST
OF MORICHES INLET ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ON ALL COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL.

A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS...ONE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. THESE
FRONTS WILL BE WEAK...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ON
THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW.
WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TOTAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF IT BEING IN FORM OF WINTRY PRECIP. SOME
PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS
DUE TO EXCESS RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWPACK.

FROM AROUND .4 TO .9 INCHES OF QPF IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH MOST OF THIS FALLING IN
THE FORM OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
AMOUNTS...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY THAN HIGHER AMOUNTS. THERE
IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE RAIN CHANGES TO FROZEN
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND. THE LONGER
THIS TAKES...IT INCREASES THE RISK OF POSSIBLE PONDING OF WATER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ008>012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ004-
     006-103>108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JP/DW
NEAR TERM...MPS/DW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MALOIT/JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW











000
FXUS61 KOKX 040232
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
932 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED BY A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD
FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE TRANSITION CONTINUES...AS SNOW HAS PRETTY MUCH CHANGED TO
FREEZING RAIN OR PLAIN RAIN. WITH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK...AND PROBABLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES COLDER AT THE SURFACE...
WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UP UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
BY THEN...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND PRECIP SHOULD BE
PLAIN RAIN.

TEMPS WILL THEN GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND BY
DAYBREAK...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON WED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE-HALF INCH DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THREAT CONTINUES FOR AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NYC/LONG
ISLAND/NE NJ/N COAST OF LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND ALL OF FAR SE CT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF A COLD FRONT
PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF A 180-200KT 250 HPA JET AND PASSING OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVES AT 700 HPA...THEN APPROACH OF 500 HPA SHORTWAVE
LATER THURSDAY.

MODELS ALSO AGREE IN SHIFTING PRIMARY AXIS OF QPF JUST TO THE S OF
LONG ISLAND...THIS SERVERS TO LIMIT THE THREAT TO N INTERIOR
ZONES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF N NEW LONDON COUNTY...GIVEN FORECAST
WSW TO ENE ORIENTATION OF THE QPF AXIS.

MODELS ALSO HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF
SLEET MIXED IN DURING THE TRANSITION. THE CMC AND NAM REMAIN THE
SLOWEST TO COOL THE LOW LEVELS...BUT NOW ARE ONLY A FEW HOURS SLOWER
THAN A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND. GIVEN TREND IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS...USED A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND TO DETERMINE CHANGE OVER
TIMING. BASICALLY EXPECT THE TRANSITION TO OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY IN
THE EVENING OVER N INTERIOR ZONES...AND CLOSER TO AROUND
MIDNIGHT/SHORTLY THEREAFTER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.

THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON 1) HOW FAR N/W OF NYC
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL...AND 2) WHETHER OR NOT THE QPF
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER TO THE S. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON 1) THE EXACT TIMING OF CHANGE OVER 2) HOW MUCH SLEET
IN THE TRANSITION WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS 3) THE EXACT END TIME OF
PRECIPITATION - MODELS HAVE EXTENDED THE DURATION FOR THE MOST PART
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE CMC CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. HAVE DISCOUNTED CMC AS OUTLIER SOLUTION ON THIS FOR
NOW...BUT DO NOTE IT HAS BEEN ADVERTISING A LONGER DURATION SINCE
YESTERDAY.

FOR NOW HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
7PM THURSDAY FOR NYC/LONG ISLAND/NE NJ/S WESTCHESTER COUNTY/ALL OF
COASTAL CT PLUS N NEW LONDON COUNTY AS WELL...FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

500 HPA TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN PUSHING OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING EXPECTED HAVE GONE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...EXCEPT FOR A LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY OVER THE SE
1/2 OF THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. GFS 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WERE BLENDED IN AS WELL THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THEY HAVE FARED WELL
THIS YEAR SO FAR DURING COLD ADVECTION PATTERNS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS 15-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RATHER TRANQUIL IN THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE FACT THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY WILL SEND A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE REGION...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. THESE FRONTS WILL BE WEAK...WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. IN FACT...AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE COLD
FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH THE AREA DRY...WHILE
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S REGION-WIDE.
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. WITH NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH LATE. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN MOST TERMINALS...EXCEPT
KSWF...KBDR AND KGON.

THIS TRANSITION OCCURS EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT...WITH ON AND OFF
LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

IFR SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BOUNCE AROUND
TO LIFR AND MVFR AT TIMES.

IFR OR MVFR LIKELY CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
STRATUS MAY SCATTER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. IF THAT DOES
OCCUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME.

S WINDS SHIFT SW-W OVERNIGHT. LLWS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

W WINDS WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...BECOMING IFR WITH A TRANSITION BACK
TO SNOW LATE EVENING/NEAR MIDNIGHT. CHC N GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THURSDAY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY IN THE W/SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. WAVEWATCH COULD BE UNDERDONE HERE BY A FOOT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST
OF MORICHES INLET ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ON ALL COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL.

A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS...ONE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. THESE
FRONTS WILL BE WEAK...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ON
THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW.
WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TOTAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF IT BEING IN FORM OF WINTRY PRECIP. SOME
PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS
DUE TO EXCESS RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWPACK.

FROM AROUND .4 TO .9 INCHES OF QPF IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH MOST OF THIS FALLING IN
THE FORM OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
AMOUNTS...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY THAN HIGHER AMOUNTS. THERE
IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE RAIN CHANGES TO FROZEN
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND. THE LONGER
THIS TAKES...IT INCREASES THE RISK OF POSSIBLE PONDING OF WATER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ008>012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ004-
     006-103>108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JP/DW
NEAR TERM...MPS/DW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MALOIT/JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW












000
FXUS61 KOKX 032351
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
651 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED BY A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD
FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRECIP CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT SNOW IS CHANGING TO
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NE NJ...NYC...AND THE
SNOW/FREEZING RAIN LINE IS CREEPING INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT BEFORE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LIGHT ICE
ACCRETIONS.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH ACTUAL HIGH
TEMPS EARLY THIS EVENING RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. BY
DAYBREAK...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE 35 TO 40. USED A BLEND OF THE
MET MOS WITH 2M HIGH RES WRF NMM TEMPS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON WED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE-HALF INCH DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THREAT CONTINUES FOR AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NYC/LONG
ISLAND/NE NJ/N COAST OF LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND ALL OF FAR SE CT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF A COLD FRONT
PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF A 180-200KT 250 HPA JET AND PASSING OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVES AT 700 HPA...THEN APPROACH OF 500 HPA SHORTWAVE
LATER THURSDAY.

MODELS ALSO AGREE IN SHIFTING PRIMARY AXIS OF QPF JUST TO THE S OF
LONG ISLAND...THIS SERVERS TO LIMIT THE THREAT TO N INTERIOR
ZONES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF N NEW LONDON COUNTY...GIVEN FORECAST
WSW TO ENE ORIENTATION OF THE QPF AXIS.

MODELS ALSO HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF
SLEET MIXED IN DURING THE TRANSITION. THE CMC AND NAM REMAIN THE
SLOWEST TO COOL THE LOW LEVELS...BUT NOW ARE ONLY A FEW HOURS SLOWER
THAN A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND. GIVEN TREND IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS...USED A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND TO DETERMINE CHANGE OVER
TIMING. BASICALLY EXPECT THE TRANSITION TO OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY IN
THE EVENING OVER N INTERIOR ZONES...AND CLOSER TO AROUND
MIDNIGHT/SHORTLY THEREAFTER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.

THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON 1) HOW FAR N/W OF NYC
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL...AND 2) WHETHER OR NOT THE QPF
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER TO THE S. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON 1) THE EXACT TIMING OF CHANGE OVER 2) HOW MUCH SLEET
IN THE TRANSITION WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS 3) THE EXACT END TIME OF
PRECIPITATION - MODELS HAVE EXTENDED THE DURATION FOR THE MOST PART
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE CMC CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. HAVE DISCOUNTED CMC AS OUTLIER SOLUTION ON THIS FOR
NOW...BUT DO NOTE IT HAS BEEN ADVERTISING A LONGER DURATION SINCE
YESTERDAY.

FOR NOW HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
7PM THURSDAY FOR NYC/LONG ISLAND/NE NJ/S WESTCHESTER COUNTY/ALL OF
COASTAL CT PLUS N NEW LONDON COUNTY AS WELL...FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

500 HPA TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN PUSHING OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING EXPECTED HAVE GONE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...EXCEPT FOR A LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY OVER THE SE
1/2 OF THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. GFS 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WERE BLENDED IN AS WELL THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THEY HAVE FAIRED WELL
THIS YEAR SO FAR DURING COLD ADVECTION PATTERNS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS 15-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RATHER TRANQUIL IN THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE FACT THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY WILL SEND A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE REGION...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. THESE FRONTS WILL BE WEAK...WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. IN FACT...AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE COLD
FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH THE AREA DRY...WHILE
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S REGION-WIDE.
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. WITH NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH LATE. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

ANY SNOW QUICKLY CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...THEN PLAIN
RAIN. PRIMARILY IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN ON
AND OFF RAIN.

IFR OR MVFR LIKELY CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
STRATUS MAY SCATTER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. IF THAT DOES
OCCUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

S WINDS SHIFT SW-W OVERNIGHT. LLWS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

W WINDS WEDNESDAY.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 2Z. ANY ICE
ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF
1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 2Z. ANY ICE
ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF
1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 1 OR 2Z. ANY ICE
ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF
1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 2Z. ANY ICE
ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF
1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 3Z. ICE ACCRETION
OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 2 OR 3Z. ANY ICE
ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF
1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...BECOMING IFR WITH A TRANSITION BACK
TO SNOW LATE EVENING/NEAR MIDNIGHT. CHC N GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THURSDAY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY IN THE W/SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. WAVEWATCH COULD BE UNDERDONE HERE BY A FOOT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST
OF MORICHES INLET ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ON ALL COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL.

A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS...ONE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. THESE
FRONTS WILL BE WEAK...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ON
THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW.
WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TOTAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF IT BEING IN FORM OF WINTRY PRECIP. SOME
PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS
DUE TO EXCESS RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWPACK.

FROM AROUND .4 TO .9 INCHES OF QPF IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH MOST OF THIS FALLING IN
THE FORM OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
AMOUNTS...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY THAN HIGHER AMOUNTS. THERE
IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE RAIN CHANGES TO FROZEN
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND. THE LONGER
THIS TAKES...IT INCREASES THE RISK OF POSSIBLE PONDING OF WATER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ008>012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ004-
     006-103>108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JP/DW
NEAR TERM...MPS/DW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MALOIT/JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW










000
FXUS61 KOKX 032351
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
651 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED BY A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD
FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRECIP CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT SNOW IS CHANGING TO
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NE NJ...NYC...AND THE
SNOW/FREEZING RAIN LINE IS CREEPING INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT BEFORE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LIGHT ICE
ACCRETIONS.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH ACTUAL HIGH
TEMPS EARLY THIS EVENING RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. BY
DAYBREAK...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE 35 TO 40. USED A BLEND OF THE
MET MOS WITH 2M HIGH RES WRF NMM TEMPS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON WED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE-HALF INCH DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THREAT CONTINUES FOR AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NYC/LONG
ISLAND/NE NJ/N COAST OF LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND ALL OF FAR SE CT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF A COLD FRONT
PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF A 180-200KT 250 HPA JET AND PASSING OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVES AT 700 HPA...THEN APPROACH OF 500 HPA SHORTWAVE
LATER THURSDAY.

MODELS ALSO AGREE IN SHIFTING PRIMARY AXIS OF QPF JUST TO THE S OF
LONG ISLAND...THIS SERVERS TO LIMIT THE THREAT TO N INTERIOR
ZONES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF N NEW LONDON COUNTY...GIVEN FORECAST
WSW TO ENE ORIENTATION OF THE QPF AXIS.

MODELS ALSO HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF
SLEET MIXED IN DURING THE TRANSITION. THE CMC AND NAM REMAIN THE
SLOWEST TO COOL THE LOW LEVELS...BUT NOW ARE ONLY A FEW HOURS SLOWER
THAN A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND. GIVEN TREND IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS...USED A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND TO DETERMINE CHANGE OVER
TIMING. BASICALLY EXPECT THE TRANSITION TO OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY IN
THE EVENING OVER N INTERIOR ZONES...AND CLOSER TO AROUND
MIDNIGHT/SHORTLY THEREAFTER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.

THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON 1) HOW FAR N/W OF NYC
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL...AND 2) WHETHER OR NOT THE QPF
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER TO THE S. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON 1) THE EXACT TIMING OF CHANGE OVER 2) HOW MUCH SLEET
IN THE TRANSITION WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS 3) THE EXACT END TIME OF
PRECIPITATION - MODELS HAVE EXTENDED THE DURATION FOR THE MOST PART
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE CMC CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. HAVE DISCOUNTED CMC AS OUTLIER SOLUTION ON THIS FOR
NOW...BUT DO NOTE IT HAS BEEN ADVERTISING A LONGER DURATION SINCE
YESTERDAY.

FOR NOW HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
7PM THURSDAY FOR NYC/LONG ISLAND/NE NJ/S WESTCHESTER COUNTY/ALL OF
COASTAL CT PLUS N NEW LONDON COUNTY AS WELL...FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

500 HPA TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN PUSHING OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING EXPECTED HAVE GONE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...EXCEPT FOR A LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY OVER THE SE
1/2 OF THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. GFS 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WERE BLENDED IN AS WELL THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THEY HAVE FAIRED WELL
THIS YEAR SO FAR DURING COLD ADVECTION PATTERNS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS 15-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RATHER TRANQUIL IN THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE FACT THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY WILL SEND A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE REGION...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. THESE FRONTS WILL BE WEAK...WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. IN FACT...AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE COLD
FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH THE AREA DRY...WHILE
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S REGION-WIDE.
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. WITH NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH LATE. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

ANY SNOW QUICKLY CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...THEN PLAIN
RAIN. PRIMARILY IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN ON
AND OFF RAIN.

IFR OR MVFR LIKELY CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
STRATUS MAY SCATTER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. IF THAT DOES
OCCUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

S WINDS SHIFT SW-W OVERNIGHT. LLWS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

W WINDS WEDNESDAY.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 2Z. ANY ICE
ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF
1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 2Z. ANY ICE
ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF
1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 1 OR 2Z. ANY ICE
ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF
1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 2Z. ANY ICE
ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF
1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 3Z. ICE ACCRETION
OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 2 OR 3Z. ANY ICE
ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF
1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...BECOMING IFR WITH A TRANSITION BACK
TO SNOW LATE EVENING/NEAR MIDNIGHT. CHC N GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THURSDAY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY IN THE W/SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. WAVEWATCH COULD BE UNDERDONE HERE BY A FOOT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST
OF MORICHES INLET ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ON ALL COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL.

A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS...ONE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. THESE
FRONTS WILL BE WEAK...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ON
THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW.
WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TOTAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF IT BEING IN FORM OF WINTRY PRECIP. SOME
PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS
DUE TO EXCESS RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWPACK.

FROM AROUND .4 TO .9 INCHES OF QPF IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH MOST OF THIS FALLING IN
THE FORM OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
AMOUNTS...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY THAN HIGHER AMOUNTS. THERE
IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE RAIN CHANGES TO FROZEN
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND. THE LONGER
THIS TAKES...IT INCREASES THE RISK OF POSSIBLE PONDING OF WATER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ008>012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ004-
     006-103>108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JP/DW
NEAR TERM...MPS/DW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MALOIT/JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW











000
FXUS61 KOKX 032351
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
651 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED BY A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD
FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRECIP CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT SNOW IS CHANGING TO
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NE NJ...NYC...AND THE
SNOW/FREEZING RAIN LINE IS CREEPING INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT BEFORE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LIGHT ICE
ACCRETIONS.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH ACTUAL HIGH
TEMPS EARLY THIS EVENING RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. BY
DAYBREAK...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE 35 TO 40. USED A BLEND OF THE
MET MOS WITH 2M HIGH RES WRF NMM TEMPS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON WED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE-HALF INCH DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THREAT CONTINUES FOR AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NYC/LONG
ISLAND/NE NJ/N COAST OF LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND ALL OF FAR SE CT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF A COLD FRONT
PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF A 180-200KT 250 HPA JET AND PASSING OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVES AT 700 HPA...THEN APPROACH OF 500 HPA SHORTWAVE
LATER THURSDAY.

MODELS ALSO AGREE IN SHIFTING PRIMARY AXIS OF QPF JUST TO THE S OF
LONG ISLAND...THIS SERVERS TO LIMIT THE THREAT TO N INTERIOR
ZONES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF N NEW LONDON COUNTY...GIVEN FORECAST
WSW TO ENE ORIENTATION OF THE QPF AXIS.

MODELS ALSO HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF
SLEET MIXED IN DURING THE TRANSITION. THE CMC AND NAM REMAIN THE
SLOWEST TO COOL THE LOW LEVELS...BUT NOW ARE ONLY A FEW HOURS SLOWER
THAN A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND. GIVEN TREND IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS...USED A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND TO DETERMINE CHANGE OVER
TIMING. BASICALLY EXPECT THE TRANSITION TO OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY IN
THE EVENING OVER N INTERIOR ZONES...AND CLOSER TO AROUND
MIDNIGHT/SHORTLY THEREAFTER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.

THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON 1) HOW FAR N/W OF NYC
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL...AND 2) WHETHER OR NOT THE QPF
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER TO THE S. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON 1) THE EXACT TIMING OF CHANGE OVER 2) HOW MUCH SLEET
IN THE TRANSITION WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS 3) THE EXACT END TIME OF
PRECIPITATION - MODELS HAVE EXTENDED THE DURATION FOR THE MOST PART
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE CMC CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. HAVE DISCOUNTED CMC AS OUTLIER SOLUTION ON THIS FOR
NOW...BUT DO NOTE IT HAS BEEN ADVERTISING A LONGER DURATION SINCE
YESTERDAY.

FOR NOW HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
7PM THURSDAY FOR NYC/LONG ISLAND/NE NJ/S WESTCHESTER COUNTY/ALL OF
COASTAL CT PLUS N NEW LONDON COUNTY AS WELL...FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

500 HPA TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN PUSHING OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING EXPECTED HAVE GONE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...EXCEPT FOR A LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY OVER THE SE
1/2 OF THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. GFS 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WERE BLENDED IN AS WELL THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THEY HAVE FAIRED WELL
THIS YEAR SO FAR DURING COLD ADVECTION PATTERNS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS 15-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RATHER TRANQUIL IN THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE FACT THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY WILL SEND A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE REGION...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. THESE FRONTS WILL BE WEAK...WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. IN FACT...AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE COLD
FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH THE AREA DRY...WHILE
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S REGION-WIDE.
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. WITH NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH LATE. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

ANY SNOW QUICKLY CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...THEN PLAIN
RAIN. PRIMARILY IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN ON
AND OFF RAIN.

IFR OR MVFR LIKELY CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
STRATUS MAY SCATTER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. IF THAT DOES
OCCUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

S WINDS SHIFT SW-W OVERNIGHT. LLWS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

W WINDS WEDNESDAY.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 2Z. ANY ICE
ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF
1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 2Z. ANY ICE
ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF
1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 1 OR 2Z. ANY ICE
ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF
1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 2Z. ANY ICE
ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF
1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 3Z. ICE ACCRETION
OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 2 OR 3Z. ANY ICE
ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF
1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...BECOMING IFR WITH A TRANSITION BACK
TO SNOW LATE EVENING/NEAR MIDNIGHT. CHC N GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THURSDAY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY IN THE W/SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. WAVEWATCH COULD BE UNDERDONE HERE BY A FOOT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST
OF MORICHES INLET ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ON ALL COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL.

A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS...ONE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. THESE
FRONTS WILL BE WEAK...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ON
THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW.
WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TOTAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF IT BEING IN FORM OF WINTRY PRECIP. SOME
PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS
DUE TO EXCESS RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWPACK.

FROM AROUND .4 TO .9 INCHES OF QPF IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH MOST OF THIS FALLING IN
THE FORM OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
AMOUNTS...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY THAN HIGHER AMOUNTS. THERE
IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE RAIN CHANGES TO FROZEN
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND. THE LONGER
THIS TAKES...IT INCREASES THE RISK OF POSSIBLE PONDING OF WATER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ008>012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ004-
     006-103>108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JP/DW
NEAR TERM...MPS/DW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MALOIT/JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW










000
FXUS61 KOKX 032351
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
651 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED BY A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD
FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRECIP CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT SNOW IS CHANGING TO
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NE NJ...NYC...AND THE
SNOW/FREEZING RAIN LINE IS CREEPING INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT BEFORE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LIGHT ICE
ACCRETIONS.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH ACTUAL HIGH
TEMPS EARLY THIS EVENING RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. BY
DAYBREAK...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE 35 TO 40. USED A BLEND OF THE
MET MOS WITH 2M HIGH RES WRF NMM TEMPS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON WED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE-HALF INCH DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THREAT CONTINUES FOR AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NYC/LONG
ISLAND/NE NJ/N COAST OF LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND ALL OF FAR SE CT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF A COLD FRONT
PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF A 180-200KT 250 HPA JET AND PASSING OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVES AT 700 HPA...THEN APPROACH OF 500 HPA SHORTWAVE
LATER THURSDAY.

MODELS ALSO AGREE IN SHIFTING PRIMARY AXIS OF QPF JUST TO THE S OF
LONG ISLAND...THIS SERVERS TO LIMIT THE THREAT TO N INTERIOR
ZONES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF N NEW LONDON COUNTY...GIVEN FORECAST
WSW TO ENE ORIENTATION OF THE QPF AXIS.

MODELS ALSO HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF
SLEET MIXED IN DURING THE TRANSITION. THE CMC AND NAM REMAIN THE
SLOWEST TO COOL THE LOW LEVELS...BUT NOW ARE ONLY A FEW HOURS SLOWER
THAN A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND. GIVEN TREND IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS...USED A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND TO DETERMINE CHANGE OVER
TIMING. BASICALLY EXPECT THE TRANSITION TO OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY IN
THE EVENING OVER N INTERIOR ZONES...AND CLOSER TO AROUND
MIDNIGHT/SHORTLY THEREAFTER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.

THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON 1) HOW FAR N/W OF NYC
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL...AND 2) WHETHER OR NOT THE QPF
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER TO THE S. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON 1) THE EXACT TIMING OF CHANGE OVER 2) HOW MUCH SLEET
IN THE TRANSITION WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS 3) THE EXACT END TIME OF
PRECIPITATION - MODELS HAVE EXTENDED THE DURATION FOR THE MOST PART
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE CMC CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. HAVE DISCOUNTED CMC AS OUTLIER SOLUTION ON THIS FOR
NOW...BUT DO NOTE IT HAS BEEN ADVERTISING A LONGER DURATION SINCE
YESTERDAY.

FOR NOW HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
7PM THURSDAY FOR NYC/LONG ISLAND/NE NJ/S WESTCHESTER COUNTY/ALL OF
COASTAL CT PLUS N NEW LONDON COUNTY AS WELL...FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

500 HPA TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN PUSHING OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING EXPECTED HAVE GONE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...EXCEPT FOR A LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY OVER THE SE
1/2 OF THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. GFS 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WERE BLENDED IN AS WELL THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THEY HAVE FAIRED WELL
THIS YEAR SO FAR DURING COLD ADVECTION PATTERNS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS 15-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RATHER TRANQUIL IN THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE FACT THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY WILL SEND A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE REGION...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. THESE FRONTS WILL BE WEAK...WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. IN FACT...AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE COLD
FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH THE AREA DRY...WHILE
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S REGION-WIDE.
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. WITH NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH LATE. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

ANY SNOW QUICKLY CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...THEN PLAIN
RAIN. PRIMARILY IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN ON
AND OFF RAIN.

IFR OR MVFR LIKELY CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
STRATUS MAY SCATTER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. IF THAT DOES
OCCUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

S WINDS SHIFT SW-W OVERNIGHT. LLWS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

W WINDS WEDNESDAY.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 2Z. ANY ICE
ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF
1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 2Z. ANY ICE
ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF
1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 1 OR 2Z. ANY ICE
ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF
1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 2Z. ANY ICE
ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF
1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 3Z. ICE ACCRETION
OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 2 OR 3Z. ANY ICE
ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF
1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...BECOMING IFR WITH A TRANSITION BACK
TO SNOW LATE EVENING/NEAR MIDNIGHT. CHC N GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THURSDAY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY IN THE W/SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. WAVEWATCH COULD BE UNDERDONE HERE BY A FOOT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST
OF MORICHES INLET ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ON ALL COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL.

A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS...ONE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. THESE
FRONTS WILL BE WEAK...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ON
THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW.
WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TOTAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF IT BEING IN FORM OF WINTRY PRECIP. SOME
PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS
DUE TO EXCESS RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWPACK.

FROM AROUND .4 TO .9 INCHES OF QPF IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH MOST OF THIS FALLING IN
THE FORM OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
AMOUNTS...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY THAN HIGHER AMOUNTS. THERE
IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE RAIN CHANGES TO FROZEN
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND. THE LONGER
THIS TAKES...IT INCREASES THE RISK OF POSSIBLE PONDING OF WATER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ008>012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ004-
     006-103>108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JP/DW
NEAR TERM...MPS/DW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MALOIT/JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW











000
FXUS61 KOKX 032133
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
433 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED BY A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD
FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG WARM ADVECTION PRECEDING A WARM FRONT THIS EVENING WILL
ALLOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...THAT WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN ALL RAIN. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE ALL RAIN DEVELOP BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH EXCEPT FOR SOME INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE
THE COLD AIR GETS TRAPPED. IN ADDITION...WITH A SNOWPACK IN PLACE
AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...FREEZING RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE GROUND EVEN IF OBS SHOWS TEMPS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH A LIGHT ICE
ACCRETION BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS EARLY THIS
EVENING RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. BY DAYBREAK...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE 35 TO 40. USED A BLEND OF THE MET MOS WITH 2M
HIGH RES WRF NMM TEMPS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON WED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE-HALF INCH DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THREAT CONTINUES FOR AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NYC/LONG
ISLAND/NE NJ/N COAST OF LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND ALL OF FAR SE CT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF A COLD FRONT
PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF A 180-200KT 250 HPA JET AND PASSING OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVES AT 700 HPA...THEN APPROACH OF 500 HPA SHORTWAVE
LATER THURSDAY.

MODELS ALSO AGREE IN SHIFTING PRIMARY AXIS OF QPF JUST TO THE S OF
LONG ISLAND...THIS SERVERS TO LIMIT THE THREAT TO N INTERIOR
ZONES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF N NEW LONDON COUNTY...GIVEN FORECAST
WSW TO ENE ORIENTATION OF THE QPF AXIS.

MODELS ALSO HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF
SLEET MIXED IN DURING THE TRANSITION. THE CMC AND NAM REMAIN THE
SLOWEST TO COOL THE LOW LEVELS...BUT NOW ARE ONLY A FEW HOURS SLOWER
THAN A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND. GIVEN TREND IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS...USED A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND TO DETERMINE CHANGE OVER
TIMING. BASICALLY EXPECT THE TRANSITION TO OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY IN
THE EVENING OVER N INTERIOR ZONES...AND CLOSER TO AROUND
MIDNIGHT/SHORTLY THEREAFTER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.

THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON 1) HOW FAR N/W OF NYC
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL...AND 2) WHETHER OR NOT THE QPF
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER TO THE S. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON 1) THE EXACT TIMING OF CHANGE OVER 2) HOW MUCH SLEET
IN THE TRANSITION WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS 3) THE EXACT END TIME OF
PRECIPITATION - MODELS HAVE EXTENDED THE DURATION FOR THE MOST PART
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE CMC CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. HAVE DISCOUNTED CMC AS OUTLIER SOLUTION ON THIS FOR
NOW...BUT DO NOTE IT HAS BEEN ADVERTISING A LONGER DURATION SINCE
YESTERDAY.

FOR NOW HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
7PM THURSDAY FOR NYC/LONG ISLAND/NE NJ/S WESTCHESTER COUNTY/ALL OF
COASTAL CT PLUS N NEW LONDON COUNTY AS WELL...FOR THE POTETNIAL FOR
4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

500 HPA TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN PUSHING OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING EXPECTED HAVE GONE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...EXCEPT FOR A LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY OVER THE SE
1/2 OF THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. GFS 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WERE BLENDED IN AS WELL THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THEY HAVE FAIRED WELL
THIS YEAR SO FAR DURING COLD ADVECTION PATTERNS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS 15-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RATHER TRANQUIL IN THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE FACT THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY WILL SEND A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE REGION...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. THESE FRONTS WILL BE WEAK...WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. IN FACT...AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE COLD
FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH THE AREA DRY...WHILE
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S REGION-WIDE.
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. WITH NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH LATE.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SPREADS EAST
ACROSS THE TERMINALS INTO EARLY EVENING. PRIMARILY IFR OR LOWER
EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER 00-02Z. SNOW TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX FROM
SW TO NE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THEN RAIN OVERNIGHT.

SSE WINDS BCMG SW-W OVERNIGHT. LLWS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE
WITHIN 00Z-02Z. ANY ICE ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE
WITHIN 00Z-02Z. ANY ICE ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE
WITHIN 2230Z-02Z. ANY ICE ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ICE ACCRETION OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2 INCHES
BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ICE ACCRETION OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF AROUND 2 INCHES
BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2
INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN -RA.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...IFR WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW LATE
EVENING/NEAR MIDNIGHT. CHC N GUSTS TO 20 KT ON THURSDAY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY IN THE W/SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. WAVEWATCH COULD BE UNDERDONE HERE BY A FOOT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST
OF MORICHES INLET ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ON ALL COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL.

A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS...ONE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. THESE
FRONTS WILL BE WEAK...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ON
THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW.
WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TOTAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF IT BEING IN FORM OF WINTRY PRECIP. SOME
PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS
DUE TO EXCESS RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWPACK.

FROM AROUND .4 TO .9 INCHES OF QPF IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH MOST OF THIS FALLING IN
THE FORM OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
AMOUNTS...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY THAN HIGHER AMOUNTS. THERE
IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE RAIN CHANGES TO FROZEN
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND. THE LONGER
THIS TAKES...IT INCREASES THE RISK OF POSSIBLE PONDING OF WATER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ008>012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ004-
     006-103>108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JP/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 032133
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
433 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED BY A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD
FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG WARM ADVECTION PRECEDING A WARM FRONT THIS EVENING WILL
ALLOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...THAT WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN ALL RAIN. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE ALL RAIN DEVELOP BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH EXCEPT FOR SOME INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE
THE COLD AIR GETS TRAPPED. IN ADDITION...WITH A SNOWPACK IN PLACE
AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...FREEZING RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE GROUND EVEN IF OBS SHOWS TEMPS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH A LIGHT ICE
ACCRETION BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS EARLY THIS
EVENING RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. BY DAYBREAK...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE 35 TO 40. USED A BLEND OF THE MET MOS WITH 2M
HIGH RES WRF NMM TEMPS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON WED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE-HALF INCH DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THREAT CONTINUES FOR AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NYC/LONG
ISLAND/NE NJ/N COAST OF LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND ALL OF FAR SE CT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF A COLD FRONT
PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF A 180-200KT 250 HPA JET AND PASSING OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVES AT 700 HPA...THEN APPROACH OF 500 HPA SHORTWAVE
LATER THURSDAY.

MODELS ALSO AGREE IN SHIFTING PRIMARY AXIS OF QPF JUST TO THE S OF
LONG ISLAND...THIS SERVERS TO LIMIT THE THREAT TO N INTERIOR
ZONES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF N NEW LONDON COUNTY...GIVEN FORECAST
WSW TO ENE ORIENTATION OF THE QPF AXIS.

MODELS ALSO HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF
SLEET MIXED IN DURING THE TRANSITION. THE CMC AND NAM REMAIN THE
SLOWEST TO COOL THE LOW LEVELS...BUT NOW ARE ONLY A FEW HOURS SLOWER
THAN A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND. GIVEN TREND IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS...USED A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND TO DETERMINE CHANGE OVER
TIMING. BASICALLY EXPECT THE TRANSITION TO OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY IN
THE EVENING OVER N INTERIOR ZONES...AND CLOSER TO AROUND
MIDNIGHT/SHORTLY THEREAFTER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.

THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON 1) HOW FAR N/W OF NYC
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL...AND 2) WHETHER OR NOT THE QPF
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER TO THE S. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON 1) THE EXACT TIMING OF CHANGE OVER 2) HOW MUCH SLEET
IN THE TRANSITION WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS 3) THE EXACT END TIME OF
PRECIPITATION - MODELS HAVE EXTENDED THE DURATION FOR THE MOST PART
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE CMC CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. HAVE DISCOUNTED CMC AS OUTLIER SOLUTION ON THIS FOR
NOW...BUT DO NOTE IT HAS BEEN ADVERTISING A LONGER DURATION SINCE
YESTERDAY.

FOR NOW HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
7PM THURSDAY FOR NYC/LONG ISLAND/NE NJ/S WESTCHESTER COUNTY/ALL OF
COASTAL CT PLUS N NEW LONDON COUNTY AS WELL...FOR THE POTETNIAL FOR
4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

500 HPA TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN PUSHING OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING EXPECTED HAVE GONE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...EXCEPT FOR A LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY OVER THE SE
1/2 OF THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. GFS 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WERE BLENDED IN AS WELL THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THEY HAVE FAIRED WELL
THIS YEAR SO FAR DURING COLD ADVECTION PATTERNS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS 15-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RATHER TRANQUIL IN THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE FACT THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY WILL SEND A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE REGION...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. THESE FRONTS WILL BE WEAK...WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. IN FACT...AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE COLD
FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH THE AREA DRY...WHILE
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S REGION-WIDE.
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. WITH NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH LATE.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SPREADS EAST
ACROSS THE TERMINALS INTO EARLY EVENING. PRIMARILY IFR OR LOWER
EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER 00-02Z. SNOW TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX FROM
SW TO NE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THEN RAIN OVERNIGHT.

SSE WINDS BCMG SW-W OVERNIGHT. LLWS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE
WITHIN 00Z-02Z. ANY ICE ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE
WITHIN 00Z-02Z. ANY ICE ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE
WITHIN 2230Z-02Z. ANY ICE ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ICE ACCRETION OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2 INCHES
BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ICE ACCRETION OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF AROUND 2 INCHES
BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2
INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN -RA.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...IFR WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW LATE
EVENING/NEAR MIDNIGHT. CHC N GUSTS TO 20 KT ON THURSDAY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY IN THE W/SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. WAVEWATCH COULD BE UNDERDONE HERE BY A FOOT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST
OF MORICHES INLET ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ON ALL COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL.

A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS...ONE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT. THESE
FRONTS WILL BE WEAK...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ON
THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW.
WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TOTAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF IT BEING IN FORM OF WINTRY PRECIP. SOME
PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS
DUE TO EXCESS RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWPACK.

FROM AROUND .4 TO .9 INCHES OF QPF IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH MOST OF THIS FALLING IN
THE FORM OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
AMOUNTS...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY THAN HIGHER AMOUNTS. THERE
IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE RAIN CHANGES TO FROZEN
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND. THE LONGER
THIS TAKES...IT INCREASES THE RISK OF POSSIBLE PONDING OF WATER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ008>012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ004-
     006-103>108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JP/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 032028
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
328 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT
INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT TO MODERATE OVERRUNNING SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGHS WILL TOP IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEFORE EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO PLAIN
RAIN. THIS PROGRESSION OCCURS SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWER THAN
WHAT FORECAST MODELS SHOW ESPECIALLY WITH THE SNOW COVER AND COLD
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THE TIMING OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE THE SAME AS
BEFORE BUT DID EXTEND THROUGH EASTERN SUFFOLK AS THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION AREAWIDE EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS THERE WILL BE ON THE LOWER END AND AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS.

MAINLY PLAIN RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WARM FRONT PROGRESSING
NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THERE WOULD BE
BLOCKING OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN...ALLOWING FOR VALLEYS TO TRAP SOME COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE.

THE RAIN WILL BECOME LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN BUT THEY OVERALL SHOW
A CONSENSUS KEEPING THE REGION SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
JET. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL ALL HELP TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN GOING
FOR THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT INTENSITY WILL BE MORE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE CONSIDERING THE AREA IS NOT WITHIN THE MOST
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR ENHANCED LIFT.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT LIKELY ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THEN
SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE TEMPS RISE WEDNESDAY AS WELL BUT RAIN
LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIMIT THEIR POTENTIAL. AGAIN
GMOS AND NAM12 BLEND USED FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES PHASING AND DIGGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK...INTERACTING WITH A SW US
LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY INDICATING THAT
ECMWF/CMC/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU TIME PERIOD...WITH A
RELATIVELY LOW MEMBER SPREAD...WHICH CAN BE TRACED BACK TO
DIFFERENCES IN INTERACTION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH SW
LOW.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION WED EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS WED NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...TRACKING NE
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS
AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
175-200KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL POTENTIAL FOR 1/3 TO
1 INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A
MOIST SW FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. NAM APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER WITH A WARM LAYER AT
700MB WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING BASED ON STRONG JET DYNAMICS
AND MODEST 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

SO POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NYC/NE NJ/LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT
STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH LATE.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SPREADS EAST
ACROSS THE TERMINALS INTO EARLY EVENING. PRIMARILY IFR OR LOWER
EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER 00-02Z. SNOW TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX FROM
SW TO NE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THEN RAIN OVERNIGHT.

SSE WINDS BCMG SW-W OVERNIGHT. LLWS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE
WITHIN 00Z-02Z. ANY ICE ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE
WITHIN 00Z-02Z. ANY ICE ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE
WITHIN 2230Z-02Z. ANY ICE ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ICE ACCRETION OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2 INCHES
BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ICE ACCRETION OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF AROUND 2 INCHES
BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2
INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN -RA.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...IFR WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW LATE
EVENING/NEAR MIDNIGHT. CHC N GUSTS TO 20 KT ON THURSDAY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS HAVE FALLEN FOR NOW AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE RETURN FLOW BEGINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT...BUILDING FETCH WILL LEAD
TO EVENTUAL RETURN OF SCA ACROSS THE OCEAN. SCA HOISTED FOR OCEAN
STARTING 02Z FOR EAST OF MORICHES INLET AND 05Z FOR REST OF OCEAN.
THIS CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE
TO COLD WATERS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BUT VERTICAL TRANSPORT WILL
ALLOW FOR THESE HIGHER WINDS TO 25-30 KT TO BE OCCASIONALLY MIXED
DOWN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS. SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY IN
SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TOTAL 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED WITH THE UPCOMING EVENT
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF IT
BEING IN FORM OF WINTER PRECIP. SOME PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED
WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS DUE TO EXCESS RUNOFF FROM
MELTING SNOWPACK. IF MORE RAIN IS FORECAST DUE TO TEMPERATURES
BEING WARMER THAN FORECAST...THERE WOULD BE MORE OF A POTENTIAL
FOR MINOR FLOODING.

1/3 TO 1 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ008>012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ004-
     006-103>108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JC








000
FXUS61 KOKX 032028
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
328 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT
INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT TO MODERATE OVERRUNNING SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGHS WILL TOP IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEFORE EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO PLAIN
RAIN. THIS PROGRESSION OCCURS SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWER THAN
WHAT FORECAST MODELS SHOW ESPECIALLY WITH THE SNOW COVER AND COLD
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THE TIMING OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE THE SAME AS
BEFORE BUT DID EXTEND THROUGH EASTERN SUFFOLK AS THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION AREAWIDE EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS THERE WILL BE ON THE LOWER END AND AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS.

MAINLY PLAIN RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WARM FRONT PROGRESSING
NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THERE WOULD BE
BLOCKING OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN...ALLOWING FOR VALLEYS TO TRAP SOME COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE.

THE RAIN WILL BECOME LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN BUT THEY OVERALL SHOW
A CONSENSUS KEEPING THE REGION SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
JET. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL ALL HELP TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN GOING
FOR THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT INTENSITY WILL BE MORE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE CONSIDERING THE AREA IS NOT WITHIN THE MOST
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR ENHANCED LIFT.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT LIKELY ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THEN
SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE TEMPS RISE WEDNESDAY AS WELL BUT RAIN
LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIMIT THEIR POTENTIAL. AGAIN
GMOS AND NAM12 BLEND USED FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES PHASING AND DIGGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK...INTERACTING WITH A SW US
LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY INDICATING THAT
ECMWF/CMC/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU TIME PERIOD...WITH A
RELATIVELY LOW MEMBER SPREAD...WHICH CAN BE TRACED BACK TO
DIFFERENCES IN INTERACTION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH SW
LOW.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION WED EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS WED NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...TRACKING NE
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS
AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
175-200KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL POTENTIAL FOR 1/3 TO
1 INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A
MOIST SW FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. NAM APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER WITH A WARM LAYER AT
700MB WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING BASED ON STRONG JET DYNAMICS
AND MODEST 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

SO POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NYC/NE NJ/LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT
STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH LATE.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SPREADS EAST
ACROSS THE TERMINALS INTO EARLY EVENING. PRIMARILY IFR OR LOWER
EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER 00-02Z. SNOW TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX FROM
SW TO NE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THEN RAIN OVERNIGHT.

SSE WINDS BCMG SW-W OVERNIGHT. LLWS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE
WITHIN 00Z-02Z. ANY ICE ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE
WITHIN 00Z-02Z. ANY ICE ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE
WITHIN 2230Z-02Z. ANY ICE ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ICE ACCRETION OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2 INCHES
BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ICE ACCRETION OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF AROUND 2 INCHES
BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2
INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN -RA.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...IFR WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW LATE
EVENING/NEAR MIDNIGHT. CHC N GUSTS TO 20 KT ON THURSDAY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS HAVE FALLEN FOR NOW AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE RETURN FLOW BEGINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT...BUILDING FETCH WILL LEAD
TO EVENTUAL RETURN OF SCA ACROSS THE OCEAN. SCA HOISTED FOR OCEAN
STARTING 02Z FOR EAST OF MORICHES INLET AND 05Z FOR REST OF OCEAN.
THIS CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE
TO COLD WATERS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BUT VERTICAL TRANSPORT WILL
ALLOW FOR THESE HIGHER WINDS TO 25-30 KT TO BE OCCASIONALLY MIXED
DOWN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS. SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY IN
SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TOTAL 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED WITH THE UPCOMING EVENT
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF IT
BEING IN FORM OF WINTER PRECIP. SOME PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED
WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS DUE TO EXCESS RUNOFF FROM
MELTING SNOWPACK. IF MORE RAIN IS FORECAST DUE TO TEMPERATURES
BEING WARMER THAN FORECAST...THERE WOULD BE MORE OF A POTENTIAL
FOR MINOR FLOODING.

1/3 TO 1 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ008>012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ004-
     006-103>108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 032028
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
328 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT
INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT TO MODERATE OVERRUNNING SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGHS WILL TOP IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEFORE EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO PLAIN
RAIN. THIS PROGRESSION OCCURS SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWER THAN
WHAT FORECAST MODELS SHOW ESPECIALLY WITH THE SNOW COVER AND COLD
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THE TIMING OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE THE SAME AS
BEFORE BUT DID EXTEND THROUGH EASTERN SUFFOLK AS THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION AREAWIDE EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS THERE WILL BE ON THE LOWER END AND AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS.

MAINLY PLAIN RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WARM FRONT PROGRESSING
NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THERE WOULD BE
BLOCKING OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN...ALLOWING FOR VALLEYS TO TRAP SOME COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE.

THE RAIN WILL BECOME LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN BUT THEY OVERALL SHOW
A CONSENSUS KEEPING THE REGION SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
JET. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL ALL HELP TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN GOING
FOR THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT INTENSITY WILL BE MORE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE CONSIDERING THE AREA IS NOT WITHIN THE MOST
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR ENHANCED LIFT.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT LIKELY ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THEN
SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE TEMPS RISE WEDNESDAY AS WELL BUT RAIN
LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIMIT THEIR POTENTIAL. AGAIN
GMOS AND NAM12 BLEND USED FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES PHASING AND DIGGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK...INTERACTING WITH A SW US
LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY INDICATING THAT
ECMWF/CMC/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU TIME PERIOD...WITH A
RELATIVELY LOW MEMBER SPREAD...WHICH CAN BE TRACED BACK TO
DIFFERENCES IN INTERACTION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH SW
LOW.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION WED EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS WED NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...TRACKING NE
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS
AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
175-200KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL POTENTIAL FOR 1/3 TO
1 INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A
MOIST SW FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. NAM APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER WITH A WARM LAYER AT
700MB WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING BASED ON STRONG JET DYNAMICS
AND MODEST 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

SO POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NYC/NE NJ/LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT
STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH LATE.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SPREADS EAST
ACROSS THE TERMINALS INTO EARLY EVENING. PRIMARILY IFR OR LOWER
EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER 00-02Z. SNOW TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX FROM
SW TO NE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THEN RAIN OVERNIGHT.

SSE WINDS BCMG SW-W OVERNIGHT. LLWS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE
WITHIN 00Z-02Z. ANY ICE ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE
WITHIN 00Z-02Z. ANY ICE ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE
WITHIN 2230Z-02Z. ANY ICE ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ICE ACCRETION OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2 INCHES
BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ICE ACCRETION OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF AROUND 2 INCHES
BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2
INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN -RA.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...IFR WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW LATE
EVENING/NEAR MIDNIGHT. CHC N GUSTS TO 20 KT ON THURSDAY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS HAVE FALLEN FOR NOW AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE RETURN FLOW BEGINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT...BUILDING FETCH WILL LEAD
TO EVENTUAL RETURN OF SCA ACROSS THE OCEAN. SCA HOISTED FOR OCEAN
STARTING 02Z FOR EAST OF MORICHES INLET AND 05Z FOR REST OF OCEAN.
THIS CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE
TO COLD WATERS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BUT VERTICAL TRANSPORT WILL
ALLOW FOR THESE HIGHER WINDS TO 25-30 KT TO BE OCCASIONALLY MIXED
DOWN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS. SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY IN
SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TOTAL 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED WITH THE UPCOMING EVENT
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF IT
BEING IN FORM OF WINTER PRECIP. SOME PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED
WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS DUE TO EXCESS RUNOFF FROM
MELTING SNOWPACK. IF MORE RAIN IS FORECAST DUE TO TEMPERATURES
BEING WARMER THAN FORECAST...THERE WOULD BE MORE OF A POTENTIAL
FOR MINOR FLOODING.

1/3 TO 1 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ008>012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ004-
     006-103>108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 032028
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
328 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT
INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT TO MODERATE OVERRUNNING SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGHS WILL TOP IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEFORE EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO PLAIN
RAIN. THIS PROGRESSION OCCURS SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWER THAN
WHAT FORECAST MODELS SHOW ESPECIALLY WITH THE SNOW COVER AND COLD
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THE TIMING OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE THE SAME AS
BEFORE BUT DID EXTEND THROUGH EASTERN SUFFOLK AS THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION AREAWIDE EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS THERE WILL BE ON THE LOWER END AND AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS.

MAINLY PLAIN RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WARM FRONT PROGRESSING
NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THERE WOULD BE
BLOCKING OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN...ALLOWING FOR VALLEYS TO TRAP SOME COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE.

THE RAIN WILL BECOME LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN BUT THEY OVERALL SHOW
A CONSENSUS KEEPING THE REGION SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
JET. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL ALL HELP TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN GOING
FOR THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT INTENSITY WILL BE MORE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE CONSIDERING THE AREA IS NOT WITHIN THE MOST
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR ENHANCED LIFT.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT LIKELY ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THEN
SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE TEMPS RISE WEDNESDAY AS WELL BUT RAIN
LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIMIT THEIR POTENTIAL. AGAIN
GMOS AND NAM12 BLEND USED FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES PHASING AND DIGGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK...INTERACTING WITH A SW US
LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY INDICATING THAT
ECMWF/CMC/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU TIME PERIOD...WITH A
RELATIVELY LOW MEMBER SPREAD...WHICH CAN BE TRACED BACK TO
DIFFERENCES IN INTERACTION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH SW
LOW.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION WED EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS WED NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...TRACKING NE
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS
AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
175-200KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL POTENTIAL FOR 1/3 TO
1 INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A
MOIST SW FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. NAM APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER WITH A WARM LAYER AT
700MB WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING BASED ON STRONG JET DYNAMICS
AND MODEST 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

SO POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NYC/NE NJ/LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT
STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH LATE.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SPREADS EAST
ACROSS THE TERMINALS INTO EARLY EVENING. PRIMARILY IFR OR LOWER
EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER 00-02Z. SNOW TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX FROM
SW TO NE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THEN RAIN OVERNIGHT.

SSE WINDS BCMG SW-W OVERNIGHT. LLWS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE
WITHIN 00Z-02Z. ANY ICE ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE
WITHIN 00Z-02Z. ANY ICE ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE
WITHIN 2230Z-02Z. ANY ICE ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ICE ACCRETION OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2 INCHES
BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ICE ACCRETION OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF AROUND 2 INCHES
BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2
INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN -RA.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...IFR WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW LATE
EVENING/NEAR MIDNIGHT. CHC N GUSTS TO 20 KT ON THURSDAY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS HAVE FALLEN FOR NOW AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE RETURN FLOW BEGINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT...BUILDING FETCH WILL LEAD
TO EVENTUAL RETURN OF SCA ACROSS THE OCEAN. SCA HOISTED FOR OCEAN
STARTING 02Z FOR EAST OF MORICHES INLET AND 05Z FOR REST OF OCEAN.
THIS CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE
TO COLD WATERS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BUT VERTICAL TRANSPORT WILL
ALLOW FOR THESE HIGHER WINDS TO 25-30 KT TO BE OCCASIONALLY MIXED
DOWN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS. SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY IN
SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TOTAL 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED WITH THE UPCOMING EVENT
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF IT
BEING IN FORM OF WINTER PRECIP. SOME PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED
WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS DUE TO EXCESS RUNOFF FROM
MELTING SNOWPACK. IF MORE RAIN IS FORECAST DUE TO TEMPERATURES
BEING WARMER THAN FORECAST...THERE WOULD BE MORE OF A POTENTIAL
FOR MINOR FLOODING.

1/3 TO 1 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ008>012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ004-
     006-103>108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JC








000
FXUS61 KOKX 031811
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
111 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT
INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BEING PRECEDED BY LIGHT
OVERRUNNING SNOWS MOVING INTO EASTERN PA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM NYC METRO AND PORTIONS NORTH AND WEST
FROM 1 TO 4 PM...AND EASTERN AREAS FROM 4 TO 7 PM. SNOW WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO
WINTRY PCPN. A LARGE FRACTION OF THE WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE WITH
THIS INITIAL ROUND.

HIGHS WILL TOP IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEFORE EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO PLAIN
RAIN. THIS PROGRESSION OCCURS SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWER THAN
WHAT FORECAST MODELS SHOW ESPECIALLY WITH THE SNOW COVER AND COLD
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THE TIMING OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE THE SAME AS
BEFORE BUT DID EXTEND THROUGH EASTERN SUFFOLK AS THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION AREAWIDE EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS THERE WILL BE ON THE LOWER END AND AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS.

MAINLY PLAIN RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WARM FRONT PROGRESSING
NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THERE WOULD BE
BLOCKING OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN...ALLOWING FOR VALLEYS TO TRAP SOME COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE.

THE RAIN WILL BECOME LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN BUT THEY OVERALL SHOW
A CONSENSUS KEEPING THE REGION SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
JET. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL ALL HELP TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN GOING
FOR THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT INTENSITY WILL BE MORE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE CONSIDERING THE AREA IS NOT WITHIN THE MOST
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR ENHANCED LIFT.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT LIKELY ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THEN
SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE TEMPS RISE WEDNESDAY AS WELL BUT RAIN
LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIMIT THEIR POTENTIAL. AGAIN
GMOS AND NAM12 BLEND USED FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES PHASING AND DIGGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK...INTERACTING WITH A SW US
LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY INDICATING THAT
ECMWF/CMC/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU TIME PERIOD...WITH A
RELATIVELY LOW MEMBER SPREAD...WHICH CAN BE TRACED BACK TO
DIFFERENCES IN INTERACTION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH SW
LOW.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION WED EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS WED NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...TRACKING NE
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS
AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
175-200KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL POTENTIAL FOR 1/3 TO
1 INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A
MOIST SW FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. NAM APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER WITH A WARM LAYER AT
700MB WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING BASED ON STRONG JET DYNAMICS
AND MODEST 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

SO POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NYC/NE NJ/LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT
STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH LATE.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 21-23Z. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. IFR OR LOWER EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER
00-02Z. MODERATE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX FROM SW TO NE AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THEN RAIN OVERNIGHT.

SSE WINDS BCMG SW-W OVERNIGHT. LLWS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE
WITHIN 00Z-02Z. PCPN CHANGE TIMES COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE
WITHIN 00Z-02Z. PCPN CHANGE TIMES COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE
WITHIN 00Z-02Z. PCPN CHANGE TIMES COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN -SN BETWEEN
21-00Z. PCPN CHANGE TIMES COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN -SN BETWEEN
21-01Z. PCPN CHANGE TIMES COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN -SN BETWEEN
22-01Z. PCPN CHANGE TIMES COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN -RA.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...IFR WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW LATE
EVENING/NEAR MIDNIGHT. CHC N GUSTS TO 20 KT ON THURSDAY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS HAVE FALLEN FOR NOW AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE RETURN FLOW BEGINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT...BUILDING FETCH WILL LEAD
TO EVENTUAL RETURN OF SCA ACROSS THE OCEAN. SCA HOISTED FOR OCEAN
STARTING 02Z FOR EAST OF MORICHES INLET AND 05Z FOR REST OF OCEAN.
THIS CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE
TO COLD WATERS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BUT VERTICAL TRANSPORT WILL
ALLOW FOR THESE HIGHER WINDS TO 25-30 KT TO BE OCCASIONALLY MIXED
DOWN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS. SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY IN
SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TOTAL 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED WITH THE UPCOMING EVENT
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF IT
BEING IN FORM OF WINTER PRECIP. SOME PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED
WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS DUE TO EXCESS RUNOFF FROM
MELTING SNOWPACK. IF MORE RAIN IS FORECAST DUE TO TEMPERATURES
BEING WARMER THAN FORECAST...THERE WOULD BE MORE OF A POTENTIAL
FOR MINOR FLOODING.

1/3 TO 1 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-
     010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ006-
     105>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-
     103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-
     104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...JM/DW
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 031811
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
111 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT
INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BEING PRECEDED BY LIGHT
OVERRUNNING SNOWS MOVING INTO EASTERN PA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM NYC METRO AND PORTIONS NORTH AND WEST
FROM 1 TO 4 PM...AND EASTERN AREAS FROM 4 TO 7 PM. SNOW WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO
WINTRY PCPN. A LARGE FRACTION OF THE WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE WITH
THIS INITIAL ROUND.

HIGHS WILL TOP IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEFORE EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO PLAIN
RAIN. THIS PROGRESSION OCCURS SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWER THAN
WHAT FORECAST MODELS SHOW ESPECIALLY WITH THE SNOW COVER AND COLD
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THE TIMING OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE THE SAME AS
BEFORE BUT DID EXTEND THROUGH EASTERN SUFFOLK AS THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION AREAWIDE EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS THERE WILL BE ON THE LOWER END AND AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS.

MAINLY PLAIN RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WARM FRONT PROGRESSING
NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THERE WOULD BE
BLOCKING OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN...ALLOWING FOR VALLEYS TO TRAP SOME COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE.

THE RAIN WILL BECOME LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN BUT THEY OVERALL SHOW
A CONSENSUS KEEPING THE REGION SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
JET. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL ALL HELP TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN GOING
FOR THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT INTENSITY WILL BE MORE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE CONSIDERING THE AREA IS NOT WITHIN THE MOST
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR ENHANCED LIFT.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT LIKELY ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THEN
SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE TEMPS RISE WEDNESDAY AS WELL BUT RAIN
LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIMIT THEIR POTENTIAL. AGAIN
GMOS AND NAM12 BLEND USED FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES PHASING AND DIGGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK...INTERACTING WITH A SW US
LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY INDICATING THAT
ECMWF/CMC/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU TIME PERIOD...WITH A
RELATIVELY LOW MEMBER SPREAD...WHICH CAN BE TRACED BACK TO
DIFFERENCES IN INTERACTION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH SW
LOW.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION WED EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS WED NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...TRACKING NE
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS
AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
175-200KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL POTENTIAL FOR 1/3 TO
1 INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A
MOIST SW FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. NAM APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER WITH A WARM LAYER AT
700MB WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING BASED ON STRONG JET DYNAMICS
AND MODEST 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

SO POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NYC/NE NJ/LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT
STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH LATE.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 21-23Z. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. IFR OR LOWER EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER
00-02Z. MODERATE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX FROM SW TO NE AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THEN RAIN OVERNIGHT.

SSE WINDS BCMG SW-W OVERNIGHT. LLWS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE
WITHIN 00Z-02Z. PCPN CHANGE TIMES COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE
WITHIN 00Z-02Z. PCPN CHANGE TIMES COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE
WITHIN 00Z-02Z. PCPN CHANGE TIMES COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN -SN BETWEEN
21-00Z. PCPN CHANGE TIMES COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN -SN BETWEEN
21-01Z. PCPN CHANGE TIMES COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN -SN BETWEEN
22-01Z. PCPN CHANGE TIMES COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN -RA.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...IFR WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW LATE
EVENING/NEAR MIDNIGHT. CHC N GUSTS TO 20 KT ON THURSDAY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS
15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS HAVE FALLEN FOR NOW AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE RETURN FLOW BEGINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT...BUILDING FETCH WILL LEAD
TO EVENTUAL RETURN OF SCA ACROSS THE OCEAN. SCA HOISTED FOR OCEAN
STARTING 02Z FOR EAST OF MORICHES INLET AND 05Z FOR REST OF OCEAN.
THIS CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE
TO COLD WATERS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BUT VERTICAL TRANSPORT WILL
ALLOW FOR THESE HIGHER WINDS TO 25-30 KT TO BE OCCASIONALLY MIXED
DOWN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS. SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY IN
SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TOTAL 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED WITH THE UPCOMING EVENT
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF IT
BEING IN FORM OF WINTER PRECIP. SOME PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED
WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS DUE TO EXCESS RUNOFF FROM
MELTING SNOWPACK. IF MORE RAIN IS FORECAST DUE TO TEMPERATURES
BEING WARMER THAN FORECAST...THERE WOULD BE MORE OF A POTENTIAL
FOR MINOR FLOODING.

1/3 TO 1 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-
     010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ006-
     105>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-
     103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-
     104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...JM/DW
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 031459
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
959 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY...GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING DURING THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT
SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BUILDS EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. OVERRUNNING CLOUDS HAVE
ALREADY WORKED IN ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND
THICKEN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

COLD ENOUGH AMBIENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SNOW TO
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. A LARGE FRACTION
OF THE WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SNOW.

HIGHS WERE TAKEN FROM 00Z NAM12 AND GMOS...GENERALLY RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEFORE EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO PLAIN
RAIN. THIS PROGRESSION OCCURS SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWER THAN
WHAT FORECAST MODELS SHOW ESPECIALLY WITH THE SNOW COVER AND COLD
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THE TIMING OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE THE SAME AS
BEFORE BUT DID EXTEND THROUGH EASTERN SUFFOLK AS THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION AREAWIDE EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS THERE WILL BE ON THE LOWER END AND AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS.

MAINLY PLAIN RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WARM FRONT PROGRESSING
NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THERE WOULD BE
BLOCKING OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN...ALLOWING FOR VALLEYS TO TRAP SOME COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE.

THE RAIN WILL BECOME LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN BUT THEY OVERALL SHOW
A CONSENSUS KEEPING THE REGION SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
JET. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL ALL HELP TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN GOING
FOR THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT INTENSITY WILL BE MORE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE CONSIDERING THE AREA IS NOT WITHIN THE MOST
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR ENHANCED LIFT.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT LIKELY ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THEN
SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE TEMPS RISE WEDNESDAY AS WELL BUT RAIN
LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIMIT THEIR POTENTIAL. AGAIN
GMOS AND NAM12 BLEND USED FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES PHASING AND DIGGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK...INTERACTING WITH A SW US
LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY INDICATING THAT
ECMWF/CMC/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU TIME PERIOD...WITH A
RELATIVELY LOW MEMBER SPREAD...WHICH CAN BE TRACED BACK TO
DIFFERENCES IN INTERACTION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH SW
LOW.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION WED EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS WED NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...TRACKING NE
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS
AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
175-200KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL POTENTIAL FOR 1/3 TO
1 INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A
MOIST SW FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. NAM APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER WITH A WARM LAYER AT
700MB WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING BASED ON STRONG JET DYNAMICS
AND MODEST 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

SO POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NYC/NE NJ/LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT
STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SHIFTS EAST. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH LATE.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20-22Z. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. IFR OR LIFR EXPECTED TONIGHT...AFTER
23-00Z. MODERATE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX FROM S TO N AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES...THEN RAIN OVERNIGHT. LLJ INCREASES THIS
EVE...WITH LLWS DEVELOPING AROUND 06Z.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE S AND ONSET OF
PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE S AND ONSET OF
PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE S AND ONSET OF
PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/-
1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/-
1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/-
1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION...WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS HAVE FALLEN FOR NOW AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE RETURN FLOW BEGINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT...BUILDING FETCH WILL LEAD
TO EVENTUAL RETURN OF SCA ACROSS THE OCEAN. SCA HOISTED FOR OCEAN
STARTING 02Z FOR EAST OF MORICHES INLET AND 05Z FOR REST OF OCEAN.
THIS CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE
TO COLD WATERS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BUT VERTICAL TRANSPORT WILL
ALLOW FOR THESE HIGHER WINDS TO 25-30 KT TO BE OCCASIONALLY MIXED
DOWN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS. SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY IN
SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TOTAL 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED WITH THE UPCOMING EVENT
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF IT
BEING IN FORM OF WINTER PRECIP. SOME PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED
WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS DUE TO EXCESS RUNOFF FROM
MELTING SNOWPACK. IF MORE RAIN IS FORECAST DUE TO TEMPERATURES
BEING WARMER THAN FORECAST...THERE WOULD BE MORE OF A POTENTIAL
FOR MINOR FLOODING.

1/3 TO 1 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ005>008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ006-105>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...24/JC
MARINE...JM/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 031459
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
959 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY...GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING DURING THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT
SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BUILDS EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. OVERRUNNING CLOUDS HAVE
ALREADY WORKED IN ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND
THICKEN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

COLD ENOUGH AMBIENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SNOW TO
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. A LARGE FRACTION
OF THE WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SNOW.

HIGHS WERE TAKEN FROM 00Z NAM12 AND GMOS...GENERALLY RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEFORE EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO PLAIN
RAIN. THIS PROGRESSION OCCURS SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWER THAN
WHAT FORECAST MODELS SHOW ESPECIALLY WITH THE SNOW COVER AND COLD
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THE TIMING OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE THE SAME AS
BEFORE BUT DID EXTEND THROUGH EASTERN SUFFOLK AS THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION AREAWIDE EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS THERE WILL BE ON THE LOWER END AND AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS.

MAINLY PLAIN RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WARM FRONT PROGRESSING
NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THERE WOULD BE
BLOCKING OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN...ALLOWING FOR VALLEYS TO TRAP SOME COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE.

THE RAIN WILL BECOME LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN BUT THEY OVERALL SHOW
A CONSENSUS KEEPING THE REGION SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
JET. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL ALL HELP TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN GOING
FOR THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT INTENSITY WILL BE MORE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE CONSIDERING THE AREA IS NOT WITHIN THE MOST
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR ENHANCED LIFT.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT LIKELY ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THEN
SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE TEMPS RISE WEDNESDAY AS WELL BUT RAIN
LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIMIT THEIR POTENTIAL. AGAIN
GMOS AND NAM12 BLEND USED FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES PHASING AND DIGGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK...INTERACTING WITH A SW US
LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY INDICATING THAT
ECMWF/CMC/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU TIME PERIOD...WITH A
RELATIVELY LOW MEMBER SPREAD...WHICH CAN BE TRACED BACK TO
DIFFERENCES IN INTERACTION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH SW
LOW.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION WED EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS WED NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...TRACKING NE
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS
AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
175-200KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL POTENTIAL FOR 1/3 TO
1 INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A
MOIST SW FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. NAM APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER WITH A WARM LAYER AT
700MB WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING BASED ON STRONG JET DYNAMICS
AND MODEST 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

SO POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NYC/NE NJ/LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT
STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SHIFTS EAST. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH LATE.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20-22Z. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. IFR OR LIFR EXPECTED TONIGHT...AFTER
23-00Z. MODERATE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX FROM S TO N AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES...THEN RAIN OVERNIGHT. LLJ INCREASES THIS
EVE...WITH LLWS DEVELOPING AROUND 06Z.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE S AND ONSET OF
PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE S AND ONSET OF
PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE S AND ONSET OF
PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/-
1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/-
1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/-
1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION...WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS HAVE FALLEN FOR NOW AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE RETURN FLOW BEGINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT...BUILDING FETCH WILL LEAD
TO EVENTUAL RETURN OF SCA ACROSS THE OCEAN. SCA HOISTED FOR OCEAN
STARTING 02Z FOR EAST OF MORICHES INLET AND 05Z FOR REST OF OCEAN.
THIS CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE
TO COLD WATERS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BUT VERTICAL TRANSPORT WILL
ALLOW FOR THESE HIGHER WINDS TO 25-30 KT TO BE OCCASIONALLY MIXED
DOWN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS. SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY IN
SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TOTAL 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED WITH THE UPCOMING EVENT
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF IT
BEING IN FORM OF WINTER PRECIP. SOME PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED
WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS DUE TO EXCESS RUNOFF FROM
MELTING SNOWPACK. IF MORE RAIN IS FORECAST DUE TO TEMPERATURES
BEING WARMER THAN FORECAST...THERE WOULD BE MORE OF A POTENTIAL
FOR MINOR FLOODING.

1/3 TO 1 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ005>008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ006-105>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...24/JC
MARINE...JM/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 031204
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
704 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY...GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING DURING THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT
SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PATTERNS ABOVE CONVEY RIDGING ALOFT WITH JET STREAM LIFTING
NORTH OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AT THE
SURFACE.

CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN FROM HIGH TO LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING IN INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE LOW LEVELS.

COLD ENOUGH AMBIENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SNOW TO
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. A LARGE FRACTION
OF THE WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SNOW.

HIGHS WERE TAKEN FROM NAM12 AND GMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEFORE EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO PLAIN
RAIN. THIS PROGRESSION OCCURS SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWER THAN
WHAT FORECAST MODELS SHOW ESPECIALLY WITH THE SNOW COVER AND COLD
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THE TIMING OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE THE SAME AS
BEFORE BUT DID EXTEND THROUGH EASTERN SUFFOLK AS THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION AREAWIDE EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS THERE WILL BE ON THE LOWER END AND AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS.

MAINLY PLAIN RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WARM FRONT PROGRESSING
NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THERE WOULD BE
BLOCKING OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN...ALLOWING FOR VALLEYS TO TRAP SOME COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE.

THE RAIN WILL BECOME LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN BUT THEY OVERALL SHOW
A CONSENSUS KEEPING THE REGION SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
JET. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL ALL HELP TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN GOING
FOR THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT INTENSITY WILL BE MORE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE CONSIDERING THE AREA IS NOT WITHIN THE MOST
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR ENHANCED LIFT.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT LIKELY ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THEN
SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE TEMPS RISE WEDNESDAY AS WELL BUT RAIN
LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIMIT THEIR POTENTIAL. AGAIN
GMOS AND NAM12 BLEND USED FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES PHASING AND DIGGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK...INTERACTING WITH A SW US
LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY INDICATING THAT
ECMWF/CMC/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU TIME PERIOD...WITH A
RELATIVELY LOW MEMBER SPREAD...WHICH CAN BE TRACED BACK TO
DIFFERENCES IN INTERACTION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH SW
LOW.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION WED EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS WED NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...TRACKING NE
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS
AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
175-200KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL POTENTIAL FOR 1/3 TO
1 INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A
MOIST SW FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. NAM APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER WITH A WARM LAYER AT
700MB WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING BASED ON STRONG JET DYNAMICS
AND MODEST 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

SO POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NYC/NE NJ/LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT
STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES EAST. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH LATE.

VFR WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SLY BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z ONCE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE E.

EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. IFR
OR LIFR EXPECTED TONIGHT...AFTER 23-00Z. MODERATE SNOW TRANSITIONS
TO A WINTRY MIX FROM S TO N AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THEN RAIN
OVERNIGHT. LLJ INCREASES THIS EVE...WITH LLWS DEVELOPING AROUND 06Z.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
IT LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS TRIPLE POINT LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING IT THROUGH.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE S AND ONSET OF
PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE S AND ONSET OF
PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE S AND ONSET OF
PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/-
1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/-
1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/-
1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION...WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS HAVE FALLEN FOR NOW AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE RETURN FLOW BEGINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT...BUILDING FETCH WILL LEAD
TO EVENTUAL RETURN OF SCA ACROSS THE OCEAN. SCA HOISTED FOR OCEAN
STARTING 02Z FOR EAST OF MORICHES INLET AND 05Z FOR REST OF OCEAN.
THIS CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE
TO COLD WATERS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BUT VERTICAL TRANSPORT WILL
ALLOW FOR THESE HIGHER WINDS TO 25-30 KT TO BE OCCASIONALLY MIXED
DOWN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS. SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY IN
SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TOTAL 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED WITH THE UPCOMING EVENT
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF IT
BEING IN FORM OF WINTER PRECIP. SOME PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED
WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS DUE TO EXCESS RUNOFF FROM
MELTING SNOWPACK. IF MORE RAIN IS FORECAST DUE TO TEMPERATURES
BEING WARMER THAN FORECAST...THERE WOULD BE MORE OF A POTENTIAL
FOR MINOR FLOODING.

1/3 TO 1 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ005>008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ006-105>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV










000
FXUS61 KOKX 031204
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
704 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY...GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING DURING THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT
SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PATTERNS ABOVE CONVEY RIDGING ALOFT WITH JET STREAM LIFTING
NORTH OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AT THE
SURFACE.

CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN FROM HIGH TO LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING IN INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE LOW LEVELS.

COLD ENOUGH AMBIENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SNOW TO
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. A LARGE FRACTION
OF THE WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SNOW.

HIGHS WERE TAKEN FROM NAM12 AND GMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEFORE EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO PLAIN
RAIN. THIS PROGRESSION OCCURS SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWER THAN
WHAT FORECAST MODELS SHOW ESPECIALLY WITH THE SNOW COVER AND COLD
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THE TIMING OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE THE SAME AS
BEFORE BUT DID EXTEND THROUGH EASTERN SUFFOLK AS THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION AREAWIDE EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS THERE WILL BE ON THE LOWER END AND AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS.

MAINLY PLAIN RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WARM FRONT PROGRESSING
NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THERE WOULD BE
BLOCKING OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN...ALLOWING FOR VALLEYS TO TRAP SOME COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE.

THE RAIN WILL BECOME LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN BUT THEY OVERALL SHOW
A CONSENSUS KEEPING THE REGION SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
JET. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL ALL HELP TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN GOING
FOR THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT INTENSITY WILL BE MORE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE CONSIDERING THE AREA IS NOT WITHIN THE MOST
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR ENHANCED LIFT.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT LIKELY ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THEN
SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE TEMPS RISE WEDNESDAY AS WELL BUT RAIN
LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIMIT THEIR POTENTIAL. AGAIN
GMOS AND NAM12 BLEND USED FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES PHASING AND DIGGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK...INTERACTING WITH A SW US
LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY INDICATING THAT
ECMWF/CMC/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU TIME PERIOD...WITH A
RELATIVELY LOW MEMBER SPREAD...WHICH CAN BE TRACED BACK TO
DIFFERENCES IN INTERACTION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH SW
LOW.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION WED EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS WED NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...TRACKING NE
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS
AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
175-200KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL POTENTIAL FOR 1/3 TO
1 INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A
MOIST SW FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. NAM APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER WITH A WARM LAYER AT
700MB WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING BASED ON STRONG JET DYNAMICS
AND MODEST 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

SO POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NYC/NE NJ/LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT
STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES EAST. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH LATE.

VFR WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SLY BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z ONCE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE E.

EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. IFR
OR LIFR EXPECTED TONIGHT...AFTER 23-00Z. MODERATE SNOW TRANSITIONS
TO A WINTRY MIX FROM S TO N AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THEN RAIN
OVERNIGHT. LLJ INCREASES THIS EVE...WITH LLWS DEVELOPING AROUND 06Z.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
IT LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS TRIPLE POINT LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING IT THROUGH.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE S AND ONSET OF
PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE S AND ONSET OF
PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE S AND ONSET OF
PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/-
1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/-
1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/-
1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION...WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS HAVE FALLEN FOR NOW AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE RETURN FLOW BEGINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT...BUILDING FETCH WILL LEAD
TO EVENTUAL RETURN OF SCA ACROSS THE OCEAN. SCA HOISTED FOR OCEAN
STARTING 02Z FOR EAST OF MORICHES INLET AND 05Z FOR REST OF OCEAN.
THIS CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE
TO COLD WATERS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BUT VERTICAL TRANSPORT WILL
ALLOW FOR THESE HIGHER WINDS TO 25-30 KT TO BE OCCASIONALLY MIXED
DOWN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS. SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY IN
SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TOTAL 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED WITH THE UPCOMING EVENT
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF IT
BEING IN FORM OF WINTER PRECIP. SOME PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED
WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS DUE TO EXCESS RUNOFF FROM
MELTING SNOWPACK. IF MORE RAIN IS FORECAST DUE TO TEMPERATURES
BEING WARMER THAN FORECAST...THERE WOULD BE MORE OF A POTENTIAL
FOR MINOR FLOODING.

1/3 TO 1 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ005>008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ006-105>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV









000
FXUS61 KOKX 031204
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
704 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY...GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING DURING THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT
SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PATTERNS ABOVE CONVEY RIDGING ALOFT WITH JET STREAM LIFTING
NORTH OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AT THE
SURFACE.

CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN FROM HIGH TO LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING IN INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE LOW LEVELS.

COLD ENOUGH AMBIENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SNOW TO
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. A LARGE FRACTION
OF THE WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SNOW.

HIGHS WERE TAKEN FROM NAM12 AND GMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEFORE EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO PLAIN
RAIN. THIS PROGRESSION OCCURS SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWER THAN
WHAT FORECAST MODELS SHOW ESPECIALLY WITH THE SNOW COVER AND COLD
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THE TIMING OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE THE SAME AS
BEFORE BUT DID EXTEND THROUGH EASTERN SUFFOLK AS THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION AREAWIDE EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS THERE WILL BE ON THE LOWER END AND AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS.

MAINLY PLAIN RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WARM FRONT PROGRESSING
NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THERE WOULD BE
BLOCKING OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN...ALLOWING FOR VALLEYS TO TRAP SOME COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE.

THE RAIN WILL BECOME LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN BUT THEY OVERALL SHOW
A CONSENSUS KEEPING THE REGION SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
JET. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL ALL HELP TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN GOING
FOR THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT INTENSITY WILL BE MORE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE CONSIDERING THE AREA IS NOT WITHIN THE MOST
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR ENHANCED LIFT.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT LIKELY ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THEN
SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE TEMPS RISE WEDNESDAY AS WELL BUT RAIN
LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIMIT THEIR POTENTIAL. AGAIN
GMOS AND NAM12 BLEND USED FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES PHASING AND DIGGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK...INTERACTING WITH A SW US
LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY INDICATING THAT
ECMWF/CMC/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU TIME PERIOD...WITH A
RELATIVELY LOW MEMBER SPREAD...WHICH CAN BE TRACED BACK TO
DIFFERENCES IN INTERACTION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH SW
LOW.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION WED EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS WED NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...TRACKING NE
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS
AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
175-200KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL POTENTIAL FOR 1/3 TO
1 INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A
MOIST SW FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. NAM APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER WITH A WARM LAYER AT
700MB WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING BASED ON STRONG JET DYNAMICS
AND MODEST 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

SO POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NYC/NE NJ/LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT
STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES EAST. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH LATE.

VFR WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SLY BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z ONCE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE E.

EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. IFR
OR LIFR EXPECTED TONIGHT...AFTER 23-00Z. MODERATE SNOW TRANSITIONS
TO A WINTRY MIX FROM S TO N AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THEN RAIN
OVERNIGHT. LLJ INCREASES THIS EVE...WITH LLWS DEVELOPING AROUND 06Z.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
IT LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS TRIPLE POINT LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING IT THROUGH.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE S AND ONSET OF
PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE S AND ONSET OF
PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE S AND ONSET OF
PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/-
1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/-
1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/-
1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION...WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS HAVE FALLEN FOR NOW AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE RETURN FLOW BEGINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT...BUILDING FETCH WILL LEAD
TO EVENTUAL RETURN OF SCA ACROSS THE OCEAN. SCA HOISTED FOR OCEAN
STARTING 02Z FOR EAST OF MORICHES INLET AND 05Z FOR REST OF OCEAN.
THIS CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE
TO COLD WATERS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BUT VERTICAL TRANSPORT WILL
ALLOW FOR THESE HIGHER WINDS TO 25-30 KT TO BE OCCASIONALLY MIXED
DOWN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS. SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY IN
SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TOTAL 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED WITH THE UPCOMING EVENT
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF IT
BEING IN FORM OF WINTER PRECIP. SOME PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED
WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS DUE TO EXCESS RUNOFF FROM
MELTING SNOWPACK. IF MORE RAIN IS FORECAST DUE TO TEMPERATURES
BEING WARMER THAN FORECAST...THERE WOULD BE MORE OF A POTENTIAL
FOR MINOR FLOODING.

1/3 TO 1 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ005>008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ006-105>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV










000
FXUS61 KOKX 031204
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
704 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY...GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING DURING THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT
SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PATTERNS ABOVE CONVEY RIDGING ALOFT WITH JET STREAM LIFTING
NORTH OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AT THE
SURFACE.

CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN FROM HIGH TO LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING IN INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE LOW LEVELS.

COLD ENOUGH AMBIENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SNOW TO
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. A LARGE FRACTION
OF THE WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SNOW.

HIGHS WERE TAKEN FROM NAM12 AND GMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEFORE EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO PLAIN
RAIN. THIS PROGRESSION OCCURS SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWER THAN
WHAT FORECAST MODELS SHOW ESPECIALLY WITH THE SNOW COVER AND COLD
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THE TIMING OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE THE SAME AS
BEFORE BUT DID EXTEND THROUGH EASTERN SUFFOLK AS THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION AREAWIDE EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS THERE WILL BE ON THE LOWER END AND AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS.

MAINLY PLAIN RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WARM FRONT PROGRESSING
NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THERE WOULD BE
BLOCKING OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN...ALLOWING FOR VALLEYS TO TRAP SOME COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE.

THE RAIN WILL BECOME LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN BUT THEY OVERALL SHOW
A CONSENSUS KEEPING THE REGION SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
JET. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL ALL HELP TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN GOING
FOR THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT INTENSITY WILL BE MORE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE CONSIDERING THE AREA IS NOT WITHIN THE MOST
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR ENHANCED LIFT.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT LIKELY ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THEN
SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE TEMPS RISE WEDNESDAY AS WELL BUT RAIN
LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIMIT THEIR POTENTIAL. AGAIN
GMOS AND NAM12 BLEND USED FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES PHASING AND DIGGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK...INTERACTING WITH A SW US
LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY INDICATING THAT
ECMWF/CMC/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU TIME PERIOD...WITH A
RELATIVELY LOW MEMBER SPREAD...WHICH CAN BE TRACED BACK TO
DIFFERENCES IN INTERACTION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH SW
LOW.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION WED EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS WED NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...TRACKING NE
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS
AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
175-200KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL POTENTIAL FOR 1/3 TO
1 INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A
MOIST SW FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. NAM APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER WITH A WARM LAYER AT
700MB WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING BASED ON STRONG JET DYNAMICS
AND MODEST 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

SO POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NYC/NE NJ/LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT
STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES EAST. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH LATE.

VFR WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SLY BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z ONCE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE E.

EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. IFR
OR LIFR EXPECTED TONIGHT...AFTER 23-00Z. MODERATE SNOW TRANSITIONS
TO A WINTRY MIX FROM S TO N AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THEN RAIN
OVERNIGHT. LLJ INCREASES THIS EVE...WITH LLWS DEVELOPING AROUND 06Z.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
IT LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS TRIPLE POINT LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING IT THROUGH.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE S AND ONSET OF
PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE S AND ONSET OF
PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE S AND ONSET OF
PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/-
1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/-
1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/-
1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION...WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS HAVE FALLEN FOR NOW AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE RETURN FLOW BEGINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT...BUILDING FETCH WILL LEAD
TO EVENTUAL RETURN OF SCA ACROSS THE OCEAN. SCA HOISTED FOR OCEAN
STARTING 02Z FOR EAST OF MORICHES INLET AND 05Z FOR REST OF OCEAN.
THIS CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE
TO COLD WATERS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BUT VERTICAL TRANSPORT WILL
ALLOW FOR THESE HIGHER WINDS TO 25-30 KT TO BE OCCASIONALLY MIXED
DOWN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS. SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY IN
SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TOTAL 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED WITH THE UPCOMING EVENT
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF IT
BEING IN FORM OF WINTER PRECIP. SOME PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED
WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS DUE TO EXCESS RUNOFF FROM
MELTING SNOWPACK. IF MORE RAIN IS FORECAST DUE TO TEMPERATURES
BEING WARMER THAN FORECAST...THERE WOULD BE MORE OF A POTENTIAL
FOR MINOR FLOODING.

1/3 TO 1 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ005>008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ006-105>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV









000
FXUS61 KOKX 030920
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
420 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY...GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING DURING THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT
SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN FROM HIGH TO LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING IN INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE LOW LEVELS.

COLD ENOUGH AMBIENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SNOW TO
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. A LARGE FRACTION
OF THE WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SNOW.

HIGHS WERE TAKEN FROM NAM12 AND GMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEFORE EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO PLAIN
RAIN. THIS PROGRESSION OCCURS SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWER THAN
WHAT FORECAST MODELS SHOW.

THE TIMING OF THE ADVISORIES WILL BE THE SAME AS BEFORE BUT DID
EXTEND THROUGH EASTERN SUFFOLK AS THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION EVEN THOUGH SNOW TOTALS THERE WILL BE ON
THE LOWER END AND AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS.

MAINLY PLAIN RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WARM FRONT PROGRESSING
NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THERE WOULD BE
BLOCKING OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN...ALLOWING FOR VALLEYS TO TRAP SOME COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT LIKELY ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THEN
SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE TEMPS RISE WEDNESDAY AS WELL BUT RAIN
LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIMIT THEIR POTENTIAL. AGAIN
GMOS AND NAM12 BLEND USED FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES PHASING AND DIGGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK...INTERACTING WITH A SW US
LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY INDICATING THAT
ECMWF/CMC/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU TIME PERIOD...WITH A
RELATIVELY LOW MEMBER SPREAD...WHICH CAN BE TRACED BACK TO
DIFFERENCES IN INTERACTION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH SW
LOW.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION WED EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS WED NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...TRACKING NE
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS
AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
175-200KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL POTENTIAL FOR 1/3 TO
1 INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A
MOIST SW FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. NAM APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER WITH A WARM LAYER AT
700MB WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING BASED ON STRONG JET DYNAMICS
AND MODEST 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

SO POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NYC/NE NJ/LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT
STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES EAST. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.

VFR WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN THIS MORNING. NW WINDS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD. THEN WINDS TURN TO THE SE BY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO
10 KTS.

BY LATE DAY...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. IFR OR
LIFR EXPECTED TONIGHT...AFTER 23-00Z. MODERATE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO A
WINTRY MIX AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE S AND ONSET OF
PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE S AND ONSET OF
PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE S AND ONSET OF
PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/-
1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/-
1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/-
1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...IFR OR LOWER LIKELY. WINTRY MIX CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 06Z.
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION...WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS HAVE FALLEN FOR NOW AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE RETURN FLOW BEGINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT...BUILDING FETCH WILL LEAD
TO EVENTUAL RETURN OF SCA ACROSS THE OCEAN. SCA HOISTED FOR OCEAN
STARTING 02Z FOR EAST OF MORICHES INLET AND 05Z FOR REST OF OCEAN.
THIS CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE
TO COLD WATERS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BUT VERTICAL TRANSPORT WILL
ALLOW FOR THESE HIGHER WINDS TO 25-30 KT TO BE OCCASIONALLY MIXED
DOWN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS. SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY IN
SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TOTAL 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED WITH THE UPCOMING EVENT
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF IT
BEING IN FORM OF WINTER PRECIP.

1/3 TO 1 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.



&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ005>008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ006-105>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 030920
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
420 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY...GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING DURING THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT
SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN FROM HIGH TO LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING IN INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE LOW LEVELS.

COLD ENOUGH AMBIENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SNOW TO
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. A LARGE FRACTION
OF THE WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SNOW.

HIGHS WERE TAKEN FROM NAM12 AND GMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEFORE EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO PLAIN
RAIN. THIS PROGRESSION OCCURS SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWER THAN
WHAT FORECAST MODELS SHOW.

THE TIMING OF THE ADVISORIES WILL BE THE SAME AS BEFORE BUT DID
EXTEND THROUGH EASTERN SUFFOLK AS THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION EVEN THOUGH SNOW TOTALS THERE WILL BE ON
THE LOWER END AND AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS.

MAINLY PLAIN RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WARM FRONT PROGRESSING
NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THERE WOULD BE
BLOCKING OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN...ALLOWING FOR VALLEYS TO TRAP SOME COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT LIKELY ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THEN
SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE TEMPS RISE WEDNESDAY AS WELL BUT RAIN
LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIMIT THEIR POTENTIAL. AGAIN
GMOS AND NAM12 BLEND USED FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES PHASING AND DIGGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK...INTERACTING WITH A SW US
LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY INDICATING THAT
ECMWF/CMC/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU TIME PERIOD...WITH A
RELATIVELY LOW MEMBER SPREAD...WHICH CAN BE TRACED BACK TO
DIFFERENCES IN INTERACTION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH SW
LOW.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION WED EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS WED NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...TRACKING NE
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS
AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
175-200KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL POTENTIAL FOR 1/3 TO
1 INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A
MOIST SW FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. NAM APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER WITH A WARM LAYER AT
700MB WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING BASED ON STRONG JET DYNAMICS
AND MODEST 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

SO POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NYC/NE NJ/LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT
STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES EAST. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.

VFR WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN THIS MORNING. NW WINDS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD. THEN WINDS TURN TO THE SE BY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO
10 KTS.

BY LATE DAY...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. IFR OR
LIFR EXPECTED TONIGHT...AFTER 23-00Z. MODERATE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO A
WINTRY MIX AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

   ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE S AND ONSET OF
PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE S AND ONSET OF
PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE S AND ONSET OF
PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/-
1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/-
1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN THIS AFTN MAY BE +/-
1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...IFR OR LOWER LIKELY. WINTRY MIX CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 06Z.
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION...WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS HAVE FALLEN FOR NOW AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE RETURN FLOW BEGINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT...BUILDING FETCH WILL LEAD
TO EVENTUAL RETURN OF SCA ACROSS THE OCEAN. SCA HOISTED FOR OCEAN
STARTING 02Z FOR EAST OF MORICHES INLET AND 05Z FOR REST OF OCEAN.
THIS CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE
TO COLD WATERS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BUT VERTICAL TRANSPORT WILL
ALLOW FOR THESE HIGHER WINDS TO 25-30 KT TO BE OCCASIONALLY MIXED
DOWN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS. SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY IN
SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TOTAL 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED WITH THE UPCOMING EVENT
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF IT
BEING IN FORM OF WINTER PRECIP.

1/3 TO 1 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.



&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ005>008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ006-105>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV







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