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000
FXUS61 KOKX 271150
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
750 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MARITIMES
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY AND
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THEREAFTER. FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT HAS SLID WELL EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT
LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGIES...AND WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING POST- FRONTAL RAIN
BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF NYC METRO AND POINTS WEST
THIS MORNING AND LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR E LI/SE CT.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION...NOT ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE MUCH FROM MORNING LOWS. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. AROUND 50 NYC/NJ METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY PIVOTS TO THE EAST COAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW TRACKING OVER THE TRI-
STATE TO MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WELL SE
OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
STAYING FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FROM THIS
LOW OFFSHORE. BUT THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS...EXCEPT FOR
OPERATIONAL ECWMF...DO SPREAD WESTERN EDGE OF LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD
INTO EASTERN LI/SE CT TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SUNYSB SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SLIGHT SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON WEST SIDE
OF LOW TRACK...DEPICTING A LOW PROB OF SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST
SOLUTION IF THE TROUGH DIGS A BIT DEEPER. THIS WOULD INCREASE
PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR LI/CT.

AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SIGNALING A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SAT AS
CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES. THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE MID-
LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH LOCATION WILL BE
KEY TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY STEADIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. THE STRENGTH/POSITION OF THIS
FEATURE HAS WAVERED FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...INSPIRING LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS FEATURE SETS UP.
FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT FALL UNDER THE INVERTED TROUGH OR
WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD...THERE WILL BE AN ISO/SCT THREAT
FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
UNDER COMBO OF MID-LEVEL VORT ENERGY AND COLD POOL INSTABILITY.
WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY AND PRECIP POTENTIAL HAVE
MAINTAINED AN W TO E GRADIENT OF CHANCE POPS TONIGHT INTO SAT
NIGHT.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL TAPERING OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN TRI-
STATE.

IN TERMS OF P-TYPE...CAA TONIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO
MIX WITH/CHANGE TO WET SNOW LATE TONIGHT. IF PRECIP IS
STEADY/HEAVY ENOUGH A MAINLY WET SNOW WOULD BE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY BASED ON THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT...BUT IF IT IS VERY LIGHT
AND SCATTERED IN NATURE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD BE LIKELY DUE TO
INABILITY TO COOL BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENTLY.

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT IS 1-2 INCHES OR LESS OF WET
SNOW FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH A
COATING TO NOTHING FURTHER WEST. IF INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION...OR OFFSHORE LOW TRACKS A BIT FARTHER WEST...AN
ADVISORY LEVEL WET SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY
LI/CT...WITH A LIGHT COATING TO INCH FARTHER WEST. THIS LATTER
SCENARIO IS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS ON SAT/SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING WELL TO THE
SOUTH...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALOFT.
THICKNESSES QUICKLY BUILD ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES
AS COMPARED TO SATURDAY...MAINLY FOR NYC...NORTHEAST NJ...AND
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT MAY SEE ONLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE DAY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE COLD OCEAN
WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MEAN PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WELL INLAND. ANY SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING
ON MONDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS PRETTY ZONAL. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FOR TUESDAY. A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPARTING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FLAKES MIXING IN TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW.

A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH
ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

RAIN/SHRA CONTINUES INTO MID MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR BY NOON.

WINDS N-NNW AROUND 10 KT...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS THRU 14Z MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL.
VFR CIGS COULD PREVAIL NOW THRU 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT UNTIL 14Z.
VFR CIGS COULD PREVAIL NOW THRU 14Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS THRU 14Z MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL.
VFR CIGS COULD PREVAIL NOW THRU 14Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: PREVAILING VFR CIGS POSSIBLE NOW THRU 14Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR CIGS POSSIBLY PREVAILING THRU 14Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO OR PREVAILING VFR CIGS POSSIBLE
BEFORE 15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. NW G20-
25KT.
.SAT NIGHT. VFR. NW G25KT.
.SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. W G25KT.
.TUE...VFR. NW G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA WINDS THIS MORNING WITH SCA OCEAN SEAS TODAY AS HIGH
SOUTHERLY SWELLS ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE. MARGINAL SCA CONDS EXPECTED
ON OCEAN TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH GUSTY NW FLOW...CAA...AND
RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS. BETTER CHANCE OF SCA CONDS ON OCEAN AND
POSSIBLY ALL WATERS WILL BE SAT NIGHT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
OFFSHORE LOW AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WAVES DIMINISH TO SUB SCA ON SUNDAY...BUT BUILD TO ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WINDS MAINLY OVER THE OCEAN WATERS WILL
GUST TO 25 KT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WAVES QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN TO ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM...THEN DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 TENTHS QPF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JP/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 271150
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
750 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MARITIMES
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY AND
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THEREAFTER. FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT HAS SLID WELL EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT
LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGIES...AND WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING POST- FRONTAL RAIN
BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF NYC METRO AND POINTS WEST
THIS MORNING AND LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR E LI/SE CT.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION...NOT ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE MUCH FROM MORNING LOWS. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. AROUND 50 NYC/NJ METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY PIVOTS TO THE EAST COAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW TRACKING OVER THE TRI-
STATE TO MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WELL SE
OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
STAYING FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FROM THIS
LOW OFFSHORE. BUT THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS...EXCEPT FOR
OPERATIONAL ECWMF...DO SPREAD WESTERN EDGE OF LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD
INTO EASTERN LI/SE CT TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SUNYSB SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SLIGHT SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON WEST SIDE
OF LOW TRACK...DEPICTING A LOW PROB OF SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST
SOLUTION IF THE TROUGH DIGS A BIT DEEPER. THIS WOULD INCREASE
PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR LI/CT.

AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SIGNALING A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SAT AS
CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES. THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE MID-
LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH LOCATION WILL BE
KEY TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY STEADIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. THE STRENGTH/POSITION OF THIS
FEATURE HAS WAVERED FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...INSPIRING LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS FEATURE SETS UP.
FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT FALL UNDER THE INVERTED TROUGH OR
WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD...THERE WILL BE AN ISO/SCT THREAT
FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
UNDER COMBO OF MID-LEVEL VORT ENERGY AND COLD POOL INSTABILITY.
WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY AND PRECIP POTENTIAL HAVE
MAINTAINED AN W TO E GRADIENT OF CHANCE POPS TONIGHT INTO SAT
NIGHT.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL TAPERING OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN TRI-
STATE.

IN TERMS OF P-TYPE...CAA TONIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO
MIX WITH/CHANGE TO WET SNOW LATE TONIGHT. IF PRECIP IS
STEADY/HEAVY ENOUGH A MAINLY WET SNOW WOULD BE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY BASED ON THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT...BUT IF IT IS VERY LIGHT
AND SCATTERED IN NATURE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD BE LIKELY DUE TO
INABILITY TO COOL BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENTLY.

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT IS 1-2 INCHES OR LESS OF WET
SNOW FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH A
COATING TO NOTHING FURTHER WEST. IF INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION...OR OFFSHORE LOW TRACKS A BIT FARTHER WEST...AN
ADVISORY LEVEL WET SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY
LI/CT...WITH A LIGHT COATING TO INCH FARTHER WEST. THIS LATTER
SCENARIO IS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS ON SAT/SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING WELL TO THE
SOUTH...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALOFT.
THICKNESSES QUICKLY BUILD ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES
AS COMPARED TO SATURDAY...MAINLY FOR NYC...NORTHEAST NJ...AND
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT MAY SEE ONLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE DAY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE COLD OCEAN
WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MEAN PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WELL INLAND. ANY SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING
ON MONDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS PRETTY ZONAL. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FOR TUESDAY. A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPARTING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FLAKES MIXING IN TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW.

A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH
ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

RAIN/SHRA CONTINUES INTO MID MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR BY NOON.

WINDS N-NNW AROUND 10 KT...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS THRU 14Z MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL.
VFR CIGS COULD PREVAIL NOW THRU 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT UNTIL 14Z.
VFR CIGS COULD PREVAIL NOW THRU 14Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS THRU 14Z MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL.
VFR CIGS COULD PREVAIL NOW THRU 14Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: PREVAILING VFR CIGS POSSIBLE NOW THRU 14Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR CIGS POSSIBLY PREVAILING THRU 14Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO OR PREVAILING VFR CIGS POSSIBLE
BEFORE 15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. NW G20-
25KT.
.SAT NIGHT. VFR. NW G25KT.
.SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. W G25KT.
.TUE...VFR. NW G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA WINDS THIS MORNING WITH SCA OCEAN SEAS TODAY AS HIGH
SOUTHERLY SWELLS ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE. MARGINAL SCA CONDS EXPECTED
ON OCEAN TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH GUSTY NW FLOW...CAA...AND
RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS. BETTER CHANCE OF SCA CONDS ON OCEAN AND
POSSIBLY ALL WATERS WILL BE SAT NIGHT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
OFFSHORE LOW AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WAVES DIMINISH TO SUB SCA ON SUNDAY...BUT BUILD TO ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WINDS MAINLY OVER THE OCEAN WATERS WILL
GUST TO 25 KT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WAVES QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN TO ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM...THEN DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 TENTHS QPF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JP/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 271059
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
659 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MARITIMES
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY AND
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THEREAFTER. FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT HAS SLID WELL EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT
LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGIES...AND WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING POST- FRONTAL RAIN
BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF NYC METRO AND POINTS WEST
THIS MORNING AND LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR E LI/SE CT.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION...NOT ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE MUCH FROM MORNING LOWS. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. AROUND 50 NYC/NJ METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY PIVOTS TO THE EAST COAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW TRACKING OVER THE TRI-
STATE TO MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WELL SE
OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
STAYING FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FROM THIS
LOW OFFSHORE. BUT THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS...EXCEPT FOR
OPERATIONAL ECWMF...DO SPREAD WESTERN EDGE OF LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD
INTO EASTERN LI/SE CT TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SUNYSB SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SLIGHT SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON WEST SIDE
OF LOW TRACK...DEPICTING A LOW PROB OF SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST
SOLUTION IF THE TROUGH DIGS A BIT DEEPER. THIS WOULD INCREASE
PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR LI/CT.

AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SIGNALING A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SAT AS
CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES. THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE MID-
LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH LOCATION WILL BE
KEY TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY STEADIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. THE STRENGTH/POSITION OF THIS
FEATURE HAS WAVERED FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...INSPIRING LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS FEATURE SETS UP.
FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT FALL UNDER THE INVERTED TROUGH OR
WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD...THERE WILL BE AN ISO/SCT THREAT
FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
UNDER COMBO OF MID-LEVEL VORT ENERGY AND COLD POOL INSTABILITY.
WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY AND PRECIP POTENTIAL HAVE
MAINTAINED AN W TO E GRADIENT OF CHANCE POPS TONIGHT INTO SAT
NIGHT.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL TAPERING OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN TRI-
STATE.

IN TERMS OF P-TYPE...CAA TONIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO
MIX WITH/CHANGE TO WET SNOW LATE TONIGHT. IF PRECIP IS
STEADY/HEAVY ENOUGH A MAINLY WET SNOW WOULD BE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY BASED ON THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT...BUT IF IT IS VERY LIGHT
AND SCATTERED IN NATURE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD BE LIKELY DUE TO
INABILITY TO COOL BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENTLY.

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT IS 1-2 INCHES OR LESS OF WET
SNOW FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH A
COATING TO NOTHING FURTHER WEST. IF INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION...OR OFFSHORE LOW TRACKS A BIT FARTHER WEST...AN
ADVISORY LEVEL WET SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY
LI/CT...WITH A LIGHT COATING TO INCH FARTHER WEST. THIS LATTER
SCENARIO IS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS ON SAT/SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING WELL TO THE
SOUTH...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALOFT.
THICKNESSES QUICKLY BUILD ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES
AS COMPARED TO SATURDAY...MAINLY FOR NYC...NORTHEAST NJ...AND
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT MAY SEE ONLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE DAY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE COLD OCEAN
WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MEAN PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WELL INLAND. ANY SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING
ON MONDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS PRETTY ZONAL. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FOR TUESDAY. A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPARTING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FLAKES MIXING IN TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW.

A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH
ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

RAIN/SHRA CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING PUSH WITH PRIMARILY MVFR
CONDS...ALTHOUGH TEMPO VFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE 13-15Z. VFR
OTHERWISE PREVAILS THEREAFTER.

WINDS N-NNW AROUND 10 KT...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS THRU 13Z MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL. VFR
CIGS COULD TEMPO OR PREVAIL NOW THRU 13Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT UNTIL 13Z.
VFR CIGS COULD TEMPO OR PREVAIL NOW THRU 13Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS THRU 13Z MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL. VFR
CIGS COULD TEMPO OR PREVAIL NOW THRU 13Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO OR PREVAILING VFR CIGS POSSIBLE NOW
THRU 13Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR/VFR CIGS POSSIBLY TEMPO OR PREVAILING
THRU 13Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO VFR CIGS POSSIBLE BEFORE 14Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. NW G20-
25KT.
.SAT NIGHT. VFR. NW G25KT.
.SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. W G25KT.
.TUE...VFR. NW G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA WINDS THIS MORNING WITH SCA OCEAN SEAS TODAY AS HIGH
SOUTHERLY SWELLS ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE. MARGINAL SCA CONDS EXPECTED
ON OCEAN TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH GUSTY NW FLOW...CAA...AND
RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS. BETTER CHANCE OF SCA CONDS ON OCEAN AND
POSSIBLY ALL WATERS WILL BE SAT NIGHT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
OFFSHORE LOW AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WAVES DIMINISH TO SUB SCA ON SUNDAY...BUT BUILD TO ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WINDS MAINLY OVER THE OCEAN WATERS WILL
GUST TO 25 KT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WAVES QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN TO ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM...THEN DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 TENTHS QPF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JP/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 271059
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
659 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MARITIMES
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY AND
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THEREAFTER. FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT HAS SLID WELL EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT
LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGIES...AND WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING POST- FRONTAL RAIN
BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF NYC METRO AND POINTS WEST
THIS MORNING AND LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR E LI/SE CT.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION...NOT ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE MUCH FROM MORNING LOWS. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. AROUND 50 NYC/NJ METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY PIVOTS TO THE EAST COAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW TRACKING OVER THE TRI-
STATE TO MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WELL SE
OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
STAYING FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FROM THIS
LOW OFFSHORE. BUT THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS...EXCEPT FOR
OPERATIONAL ECWMF...DO SPREAD WESTERN EDGE OF LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD
INTO EASTERN LI/SE CT TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SUNYSB SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SLIGHT SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON WEST SIDE
OF LOW TRACK...DEPICTING A LOW PROB OF SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST
SOLUTION IF THE TROUGH DIGS A BIT DEEPER. THIS WOULD INCREASE
PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR LI/CT.

AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SIGNALING A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SAT AS
CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES. THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE MID-
LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH LOCATION WILL BE
KEY TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY STEADIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. THE STRENGTH/POSITION OF THIS
FEATURE HAS WAVERED FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...INSPIRING LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS FEATURE SETS UP.
FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT FALL UNDER THE INVERTED TROUGH OR
WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD...THERE WILL BE AN ISO/SCT THREAT
FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
UNDER COMBO OF MID-LEVEL VORT ENERGY AND COLD POOL INSTABILITY.
WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY AND PRECIP POTENTIAL HAVE
MAINTAINED AN W TO E GRADIENT OF CHANCE POPS TONIGHT INTO SAT
NIGHT.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL TAPERING OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN TRI-
STATE.

IN TERMS OF P-TYPE...CAA TONIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO
MIX WITH/CHANGE TO WET SNOW LATE TONIGHT. IF PRECIP IS
STEADY/HEAVY ENOUGH A MAINLY WET SNOW WOULD BE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY BASED ON THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT...BUT IF IT IS VERY LIGHT
AND SCATTERED IN NATURE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD BE LIKELY DUE TO
INABILITY TO COOL BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENTLY.

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT IS 1-2 INCHES OR LESS OF WET
SNOW FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH A
COATING TO NOTHING FURTHER WEST. IF INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION...OR OFFSHORE LOW TRACKS A BIT FARTHER WEST...AN
ADVISORY LEVEL WET SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY
LI/CT...WITH A LIGHT COATING TO INCH FARTHER WEST. THIS LATTER
SCENARIO IS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS ON SAT/SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING WELL TO THE
SOUTH...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALOFT.
THICKNESSES QUICKLY BUILD ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES
AS COMPARED TO SATURDAY...MAINLY FOR NYC...NORTHEAST NJ...AND
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT MAY SEE ONLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE DAY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE COLD OCEAN
WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MEAN PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WELL INLAND. ANY SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING
ON MONDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS PRETTY ZONAL. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FOR TUESDAY. A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPARTING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FLAKES MIXING IN TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW.

A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH
ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

RAIN/SHRA CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING PUSH WITH PRIMARILY MVFR
CONDS...ALTHOUGH TEMPO VFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE 13-15Z. VFR
OTHERWISE PREVAILS THEREAFTER.

WINDS N-NNW AROUND 10 KT...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS THRU 13Z MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL. VFR
CIGS COULD TEMPO OR PREVAIL NOW THRU 13Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT UNTIL 13Z.
VFR CIGS COULD TEMPO OR PREVAIL NOW THRU 13Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS THRU 13Z MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL. VFR
CIGS COULD TEMPO OR PREVAIL NOW THRU 13Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO OR PREVAILING VFR CIGS POSSIBLE NOW
THRU 13Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR/VFR CIGS POSSIBLY TEMPO OR PREVAILING
THRU 13Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO VFR CIGS POSSIBLE BEFORE 14Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. NW G20-
25KT.
.SAT NIGHT. VFR. NW G25KT.
.SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. W G25KT.
.TUE...VFR. NW G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA WINDS THIS MORNING WITH SCA OCEAN SEAS TODAY AS HIGH
SOUTHERLY SWELLS ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE. MARGINAL SCA CONDS EXPECTED
ON OCEAN TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH GUSTY NW FLOW...CAA...AND
RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS. BETTER CHANCE OF SCA CONDS ON OCEAN AND
POSSIBLY ALL WATERS WILL BE SAT NIGHT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
OFFSHORE LOW AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WAVES DIMINISH TO SUB SCA ON SUNDAY...BUT BUILD TO ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WINDS MAINLY OVER THE OCEAN WATERS WILL
GUST TO 25 KT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WAVES QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN TO ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM...THEN DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 TENTHS QPF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JP/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 271059
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
659 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MARITIMES
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY AND
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THEREAFTER. FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT HAS SLID WELL EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT
LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGIES...AND WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING POST- FRONTAL RAIN
BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF NYC METRO AND POINTS WEST
THIS MORNING AND LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR E LI/SE CT.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION...NOT ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE MUCH FROM MORNING LOWS. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. AROUND 50 NYC/NJ METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY PIVOTS TO THE EAST COAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW TRACKING OVER THE TRI-
STATE TO MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WELL SE
OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
STAYING FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FROM THIS
LOW OFFSHORE. BUT THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS...EXCEPT FOR
OPERATIONAL ECWMF...DO SPREAD WESTERN EDGE OF LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD
INTO EASTERN LI/SE CT TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SUNYSB SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SLIGHT SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON WEST SIDE
OF LOW TRACK...DEPICTING A LOW PROB OF SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST
SOLUTION IF THE TROUGH DIGS A BIT DEEPER. THIS WOULD INCREASE
PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR LI/CT.

AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SIGNALING A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SAT AS
CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES. THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE MID-
LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH LOCATION WILL BE
KEY TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY STEADIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. THE STRENGTH/POSITION OF THIS
FEATURE HAS WAVERED FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...INSPIRING LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS FEATURE SETS UP.
FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT FALL UNDER THE INVERTED TROUGH OR
WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD...THERE WILL BE AN ISO/SCT THREAT
FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
UNDER COMBO OF MID-LEVEL VORT ENERGY AND COLD POOL INSTABILITY.
WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY AND PRECIP POTENTIAL HAVE
MAINTAINED AN W TO E GRADIENT OF CHANCE POPS TONIGHT INTO SAT
NIGHT.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL TAPERING OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN TRI-
STATE.

IN TERMS OF P-TYPE...CAA TONIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO
MIX WITH/CHANGE TO WET SNOW LATE TONIGHT. IF PRECIP IS
STEADY/HEAVY ENOUGH A MAINLY WET SNOW WOULD BE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY BASED ON THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT...BUT IF IT IS VERY LIGHT
AND SCATTERED IN NATURE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD BE LIKELY DUE TO
INABILITY TO COOL BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENTLY.

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT IS 1-2 INCHES OR LESS OF WET
SNOW FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH A
COATING TO NOTHING FURTHER WEST. IF INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION...OR OFFSHORE LOW TRACKS A BIT FARTHER WEST...AN
ADVISORY LEVEL WET SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY
LI/CT...WITH A LIGHT COATING TO INCH FARTHER WEST. THIS LATTER
SCENARIO IS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS ON SAT/SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING WELL TO THE
SOUTH...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALOFT.
THICKNESSES QUICKLY BUILD ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES
AS COMPARED TO SATURDAY...MAINLY FOR NYC...NORTHEAST NJ...AND
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT MAY SEE ONLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE DAY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE COLD OCEAN
WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MEAN PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WELL INLAND. ANY SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING
ON MONDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS PRETTY ZONAL. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FOR TUESDAY. A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPARTING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FLAKES MIXING IN TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW.

A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH
ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

RAIN/SHRA CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING PUSH WITH PRIMARILY MVFR
CONDS...ALTHOUGH TEMPO VFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE 13-15Z. VFR
OTHERWISE PREVAILS THEREAFTER.

WINDS N-NNW AROUND 10 KT...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS THRU 13Z MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL. VFR
CIGS COULD TEMPO OR PREVAIL NOW THRU 13Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT UNTIL 13Z.
VFR CIGS COULD TEMPO OR PREVAIL NOW THRU 13Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS THRU 13Z MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL. VFR
CIGS COULD TEMPO OR PREVAIL NOW THRU 13Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO OR PREVAILING VFR CIGS POSSIBLE NOW
THRU 13Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR/VFR CIGS POSSIBLY TEMPO OR PREVAILING
THRU 13Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO VFR CIGS POSSIBLE BEFORE 14Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. NW G20-
25KT.
.SAT NIGHT. VFR. NW G25KT.
.SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. W G25KT.
.TUE...VFR. NW G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA WINDS THIS MORNING WITH SCA OCEAN SEAS TODAY AS HIGH
SOUTHERLY SWELLS ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE. MARGINAL SCA CONDS EXPECTED
ON OCEAN TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH GUSTY NW FLOW...CAA...AND
RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS. BETTER CHANCE OF SCA CONDS ON OCEAN AND
POSSIBLY ALL WATERS WILL BE SAT NIGHT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
OFFSHORE LOW AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WAVES DIMINISH TO SUB SCA ON SUNDAY...BUT BUILD TO ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WINDS MAINLY OVER THE OCEAN WATERS WILL
GUST TO 25 KT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WAVES QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN TO ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM...THEN DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 TENTHS QPF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JP/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 271059
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
659 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MARITIMES
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY AND
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THEREAFTER. FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT HAS SLID WELL EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT
LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGIES...AND WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING POST- FRONTAL RAIN
BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF NYC METRO AND POINTS WEST
THIS MORNING AND LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR E LI/SE CT.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION...NOT ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE MUCH FROM MORNING LOWS. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. AROUND 50 NYC/NJ METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY PIVOTS TO THE EAST COAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW TRACKING OVER THE TRI-
STATE TO MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WELL SE
OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
STAYING FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FROM THIS
LOW OFFSHORE. BUT THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS...EXCEPT FOR
OPERATIONAL ECWMF...DO SPREAD WESTERN EDGE OF LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD
INTO EASTERN LI/SE CT TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SUNYSB SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SLIGHT SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON WEST SIDE
OF LOW TRACK...DEPICTING A LOW PROB OF SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST
SOLUTION IF THE TROUGH DIGS A BIT DEEPER. THIS WOULD INCREASE
PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR LI/CT.

AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SIGNALING A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SAT AS
CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES. THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE MID-
LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH LOCATION WILL BE
KEY TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY STEADIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. THE STRENGTH/POSITION OF THIS
FEATURE HAS WAVERED FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...INSPIRING LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS FEATURE SETS UP.
FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT FALL UNDER THE INVERTED TROUGH OR
WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD...THERE WILL BE AN ISO/SCT THREAT
FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
UNDER COMBO OF MID-LEVEL VORT ENERGY AND COLD POOL INSTABILITY.
WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY AND PRECIP POTENTIAL HAVE
MAINTAINED AN W TO E GRADIENT OF CHANCE POPS TONIGHT INTO SAT
NIGHT.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL TAPERING OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN TRI-
STATE.

IN TERMS OF P-TYPE...CAA TONIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO
MIX WITH/CHANGE TO WET SNOW LATE TONIGHT. IF PRECIP IS
STEADY/HEAVY ENOUGH A MAINLY WET SNOW WOULD BE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY BASED ON THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT...BUT IF IT IS VERY LIGHT
AND SCATTERED IN NATURE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD BE LIKELY DUE TO
INABILITY TO COOL BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENTLY.

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT IS 1-2 INCHES OR LESS OF WET
SNOW FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH A
COATING TO NOTHING FURTHER WEST. IF INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION...OR OFFSHORE LOW TRACKS A BIT FARTHER WEST...AN
ADVISORY LEVEL WET SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY
LI/CT...WITH A LIGHT COATING TO INCH FARTHER WEST. THIS LATTER
SCENARIO IS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS ON SAT/SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING WELL TO THE
SOUTH...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALOFT.
THICKNESSES QUICKLY BUILD ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES
AS COMPARED TO SATURDAY...MAINLY FOR NYC...NORTHEAST NJ...AND
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT MAY SEE ONLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE DAY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE COLD OCEAN
WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MEAN PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WELL INLAND. ANY SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING
ON MONDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS PRETTY ZONAL. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FOR TUESDAY. A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPARTING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FLAKES MIXING IN TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW.

A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH
ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

RAIN/SHRA CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING PUSH WITH PRIMARILY MVFR
CONDS...ALTHOUGH TEMPO VFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE 13-15Z. VFR
OTHERWISE PREVAILS THEREAFTER.

WINDS N-NNW AROUND 10 KT...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS THRU 13Z MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL. VFR
CIGS COULD TEMPO OR PREVAIL NOW THRU 13Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT UNTIL 13Z.
VFR CIGS COULD TEMPO OR PREVAIL NOW THRU 13Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS THRU 13Z MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL. VFR
CIGS COULD TEMPO OR PREVAIL NOW THRU 13Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO OR PREVAILING VFR CIGS POSSIBLE NOW
THRU 13Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR/VFR CIGS POSSIBLY TEMPO OR PREVAILING
THRU 13Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO VFR CIGS POSSIBLE BEFORE 14Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. NW G20-
25KT.
.SAT NIGHT. VFR. NW G25KT.
.SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. W G25KT.
.TUE...VFR. NW G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA WINDS THIS MORNING WITH SCA OCEAN SEAS TODAY AS HIGH
SOUTHERLY SWELLS ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE. MARGINAL SCA CONDS EXPECTED
ON OCEAN TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH GUSTY NW FLOW...CAA...AND
RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS. BETTER CHANCE OF SCA CONDS ON OCEAN AND
POSSIBLY ALL WATERS WILL BE SAT NIGHT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
OFFSHORE LOW AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WAVES DIMINISH TO SUB SCA ON SUNDAY...BUT BUILD TO ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WINDS MAINLY OVER THE OCEAN WATERS WILL
GUST TO 25 KT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WAVES QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN TO ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM...THEN DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 TENTHS QPF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JP/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270901
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
501 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MARITIMES
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY AND
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THEREAFTER. FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS SLID EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGIES...AND
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR
LINGERING POST- FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF
NYC METRO AND POINTS WEST THIS MORNING AND LIKELY NOT UNTIL
AFTERNOON FOR E LI/SE CT.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. AROUND 50 NYC/NJ METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY PIVOTS TO THE EAST COAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW TRACKING OVER THE TRI-
STATE TO MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WELL SE
OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
STAYING FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FROM THIS
LOW OFFSHORE. BUT THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS...EXCEPT FOR OPERATIONAL
ECWMF...DO SPREAD WESTERN EDGE OF LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD INTO FAR
EASTERN LI/SE CT TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SUNYSB SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SLIGHT SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON WEST SIDE
OF LOW TRACK...DEPICTING A LOW PROB OF SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST
SOLUTION IF THE TROUGH DIGS A BIT DEEPER. THIS WOULD INCREASE
PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LI/CT.

AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SIGNALING A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES. THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE MID-
LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH LOCATION WILL BE
KEY TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY STEADIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. THE STRENGTH/POSITION OF THIS
FEATURE HAS WAVERED FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...INSTILLING LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS FEATURE SETS UP.
WITH THE ABOVE UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL HAVE MAINTAINED AN W TO E
GRADIENT OF ONLY CHANCE POPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.

FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT FALL UNDER THE INVERTED TROUGH OR
WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD...THERE WILL BE AN ISO/SCT THREAT
FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
UNDER COMBO OF MID- LEVEL VORT ENERGY AND COLD POOL INSTABILITY.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL TAPERING OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN TRI-STATE.

IN TERMS OF P-TYPE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP...CAA TONIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD
ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO WET SNOW LATE TONIGHT. IF PRECIP
IS STEADY ENOUGH A MAINLY WET SNOW WOULD BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
BASED ON THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT...BUT IF IT IS VERY LIGHT AND
SCATTERED IN NATURE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD BE LIKELY DUE TO WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS.

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT IS 1-2 INCHES OR LESS OF WET
SNOW FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH A COATING
TO NOTHING FURTHER WEST. IF INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION...OR OFFSHORE LOW TRACKS A BIT FARTHER WEST...AN ADVISORY
LEVEL WET SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY LI/CT.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
POOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY...WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH...WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALOFT. THICKNESSES QUICKLY BUILD ON
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE IN THE
DAY...WHICH MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AS COMPARED TO
SATURDAY...MAINLY FOR NYC...NORTHEAST NJ...AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT MAY SEE ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING
THE DAY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE COLD OCEAN WATERS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MEAN PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WELL INLAND. ANY SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING
ON MONDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS PRETTY ZONAL. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FOR TUESDAY. A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPARTING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FLAKES MIXING IN TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW.

A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH
ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

RAIN/SHRA CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING PUSH WITH PRIMARILY MVFR
CONDS...ALTHOUGH TEMPO VFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE 13-15Z. VFR
OTHERWISE PREVAILS THEREAFTER.

WINDS N-NNW AROUND 10 KT...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS THRU 13Z MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL. VFR
CIGS COULD TEMPO OR PREVAIL NOW THRU 13Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT UNTIL 13Z.
VFR CIGS COULD TEMPO OR PREVAIL NOW THRU 13Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS THRU 13Z MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL. VFR
CIGS COULD TEMPO OR PREVAIL NOW THRU 13Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO OR PREVAILING VFR CIGS POSSIBLE NOW
THRU 13Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR/VFR CIGS POSSIBLY TEMPO OR PREVAILING
THRU 13Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO VFR CIGS POSSIBLE BEFORE 14Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. NW G20-
25KT.
.SAT NIGHT. VFR. NW G25KT.
.SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. W G25KT.
.TUE...VFR. NW G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDE OF HIGH
SOUTHERLY SWELLS. MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON OCEAN TONIGHT WITH
GUSTY NW FLOW...CAA...AND RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS...WITH BETTER
CHANCE OF SCA CONDS SAT NIGHT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW AND
AS HIGH PRESSURE IN FROM THE WEST.

WAVES DIMINISH TO SUB SCA ON SUNDAY...BUT BUILD TO ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WINDS MAINLY OVER THE OCEAN WATERS WILL
GUST TO 25 KT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WAVES QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN TO ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM...THEN DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 TENTHS QPF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND
MOVEMENT INTO THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JP/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 270901
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
501 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MARITIMES
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY AND
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THEREAFTER. FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS SLID EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGIES...AND
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR
LINGERING POST- FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF
NYC METRO AND POINTS WEST THIS MORNING AND LIKELY NOT UNTIL
AFTERNOON FOR E LI/SE CT.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. AROUND 50 NYC/NJ METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY PIVOTS TO THE EAST COAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW TRACKING OVER THE TRI-
STATE TO MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WELL SE
OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
STAYING FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FROM THIS
LOW OFFSHORE. BUT THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS...EXCEPT FOR OPERATIONAL
ECWMF...DO SPREAD WESTERN EDGE OF LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD INTO FAR
EASTERN LI/SE CT TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SUNYSB SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SLIGHT SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON WEST SIDE
OF LOW TRACK...DEPICTING A LOW PROB OF SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST
SOLUTION IF THE TROUGH DIGS A BIT DEEPER. THIS WOULD INCREASE
PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LI/CT.

AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SIGNALING A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES. THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE MID-
LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH LOCATION WILL BE
KEY TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY STEADIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. THE STRENGTH/POSITION OF THIS
FEATURE HAS WAVERED FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...INSTILLING LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS FEATURE SETS UP.
WITH THE ABOVE UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL HAVE MAINTAINED AN W TO E
GRADIENT OF ONLY CHANCE POPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.

FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT FALL UNDER THE INVERTED TROUGH OR
WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD...THERE WILL BE AN ISO/SCT THREAT
FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
UNDER COMBO OF MID- LEVEL VORT ENERGY AND COLD POOL INSTABILITY.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL TAPERING OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN TRI-STATE.

IN TERMS OF P-TYPE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP...CAA TONIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD
ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO WET SNOW LATE TONIGHT. IF PRECIP
IS STEADY ENOUGH A MAINLY WET SNOW WOULD BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
BASED ON THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT...BUT IF IT IS VERY LIGHT AND
SCATTERED IN NATURE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD BE LIKELY DUE TO WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS.

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT IS 1-2 INCHES OR LESS OF WET
SNOW FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH A COATING
TO NOTHING FURTHER WEST. IF INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION...OR OFFSHORE LOW TRACKS A BIT FARTHER WEST...AN ADVISORY
LEVEL WET SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY LI/CT.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
POOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY...WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH...WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALOFT. THICKNESSES QUICKLY BUILD ON
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE IN THE
DAY...WHICH MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AS COMPARED TO
SATURDAY...MAINLY FOR NYC...NORTHEAST NJ...AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT MAY SEE ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING
THE DAY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE COLD OCEAN WATERS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MEAN PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WELL INLAND. ANY SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING
ON MONDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS PRETTY ZONAL. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FOR TUESDAY. A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPARTING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FLAKES MIXING IN TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW.

A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH
ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

RAIN/SHRA CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING PUSH WITH PRIMARILY MVFR
CONDS...ALTHOUGH TEMPO VFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE 13-15Z. VFR
OTHERWISE PREVAILS THEREAFTER.

WINDS N-NNW AROUND 10 KT...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS THRU 13Z MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL. VFR
CIGS COULD TEMPO OR PREVAIL NOW THRU 13Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT UNTIL 13Z.
VFR CIGS COULD TEMPO OR PREVAIL NOW THRU 13Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS THRU 13Z MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL. VFR
CIGS COULD TEMPO OR PREVAIL NOW THRU 13Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO OR PREVAILING VFR CIGS POSSIBLE NOW
THRU 13Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR/VFR CIGS POSSIBLY TEMPO OR PREVAILING
THRU 13Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO VFR CIGS POSSIBLE BEFORE 14Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. NW G20-
25KT.
.SAT NIGHT. VFR. NW G25KT.
.SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. W G25KT.
.TUE...VFR. NW G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDE OF HIGH
SOUTHERLY SWELLS. MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON OCEAN TONIGHT WITH
GUSTY NW FLOW...CAA...AND RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS...WITH BETTER
CHANCE OF SCA CONDS SAT NIGHT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW AND
AS HIGH PRESSURE IN FROM THE WEST.

WAVES DIMINISH TO SUB SCA ON SUNDAY...BUT BUILD TO ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WINDS MAINLY OVER THE OCEAN WATERS WILL
GUST TO 25 KT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WAVES QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN TO ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM...THEN DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 TENTHS QPF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND
MOVEMENT INTO THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JP/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270901
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
501 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MARITIMES
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY AND
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THEREAFTER. FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS SLID EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGIES...AND
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR
LINGERING POST- FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF
NYC METRO AND POINTS WEST THIS MORNING AND LIKELY NOT UNTIL
AFTERNOON FOR E LI/SE CT.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. AROUND 50 NYC/NJ METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY PIVOTS TO THE EAST COAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW TRACKING OVER THE TRI-
STATE TO MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WELL SE
OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
STAYING FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FROM THIS
LOW OFFSHORE. BUT THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS...EXCEPT FOR OPERATIONAL
ECWMF...DO SPREAD WESTERN EDGE OF LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD INTO FAR
EASTERN LI/SE CT TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SUNYSB SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SLIGHT SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON WEST SIDE
OF LOW TRACK...DEPICTING A LOW PROB OF SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST
SOLUTION IF THE TROUGH DIGS A BIT DEEPER. THIS WOULD INCREASE
PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LI/CT.

AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SIGNALING A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES. THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE MID-
LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH LOCATION WILL BE
KEY TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY STEADIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. THE STRENGTH/POSITION OF THIS
FEATURE HAS WAVERED FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...INSTILLING LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS FEATURE SETS UP.
WITH THE ABOVE UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL HAVE MAINTAINED AN W TO E
GRADIENT OF ONLY CHANCE POPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.

FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT FALL UNDER THE INVERTED TROUGH OR
WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD...THERE WILL BE AN ISO/SCT THREAT
FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
UNDER COMBO OF MID- LEVEL VORT ENERGY AND COLD POOL INSTABILITY.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL TAPERING OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN TRI-STATE.

IN TERMS OF P-TYPE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP...CAA TONIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD
ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO WET SNOW LATE TONIGHT. IF PRECIP
IS STEADY ENOUGH A MAINLY WET SNOW WOULD BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
BASED ON THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT...BUT IF IT IS VERY LIGHT AND
SCATTERED IN NATURE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD BE LIKELY DUE TO WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS.

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT IS 1-2 INCHES OR LESS OF WET
SNOW FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH A COATING
TO NOTHING FURTHER WEST. IF INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION...OR OFFSHORE LOW TRACKS A BIT FARTHER WEST...AN ADVISORY
LEVEL WET SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY LI/CT.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
POOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY...WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH...WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALOFT. THICKNESSES QUICKLY BUILD ON
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE IN THE
DAY...WHICH MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AS COMPARED TO
SATURDAY...MAINLY FOR NYC...NORTHEAST NJ...AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT MAY SEE ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING
THE DAY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE COLD OCEAN WATERS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MEAN PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WELL INLAND. ANY SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING
ON MONDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS PRETTY ZONAL. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FOR TUESDAY. A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPARTING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FLAKES MIXING IN TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW.

A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH
ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

RAIN/SHRA CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING PUSH WITH PRIMARILY MVFR
CONDS...ALTHOUGH TEMPO VFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE 13-15Z. VFR
OTHERWISE PREVAILS THEREAFTER.

WINDS N-NNW AROUND 10 KT...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS THRU 13Z MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL. VFR
CIGS COULD TEMPO OR PREVAIL NOW THRU 13Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT UNTIL 13Z.
VFR CIGS COULD TEMPO OR PREVAIL NOW THRU 13Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS THRU 13Z MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL. VFR
CIGS COULD TEMPO OR PREVAIL NOW THRU 13Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO OR PREVAILING VFR CIGS POSSIBLE NOW
THRU 13Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR/VFR CIGS POSSIBLY TEMPO OR PREVAILING
THRU 13Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO VFR CIGS POSSIBLE BEFORE 14Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. NW G20-
25KT.
.SAT NIGHT. VFR. NW G25KT.
.SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. W G25KT.
.TUE...VFR. NW G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDE OF HIGH
SOUTHERLY SWELLS. MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON OCEAN TONIGHT WITH
GUSTY NW FLOW...CAA...AND RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS...WITH BETTER
CHANCE OF SCA CONDS SAT NIGHT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW AND
AS HIGH PRESSURE IN FROM THE WEST.

WAVES DIMINISH TO SUB SCA ON SUNDAY...BUT BUILD TO ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WINDS MAINLY OVER THE OCEAN WATERS WILL
GUST TO 25 KT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WAVES QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN TO ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM...THEN DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 TENTHS QPF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND
MOVEMENT INTO THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JP/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270824
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
424 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MARITIMES
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY AND
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THEREAFTER. FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS SLID EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGIES...AND
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR
LINGERING POST- FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF
NYC METRO AND POINTS WEST THIS MORNING AND LIKELY NOT UNTIL
AFTERNOON FOR E LI/SE CT.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. AROUND 50 NYC/NJ METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY PIVOTS TO THE EAST COAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW TRACKING OVER THE TRI-
STATE TO MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WELL SE
OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
STAYING FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FROM THIS
LOW OFFSHORE. BUT THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS...EXCEPT FOR OPERATIONAL
ECWMF...DO SPREAD WESTERN EDGE OF LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD INTO FAR
EASTERN LI/SE CT TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SUNYSB SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SLIGHT SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON WEST SIDE
OF LOW TRACK...DEPICTING A LOW PROB OF SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST
SOLUTION IF THE TROUGH DIGS A BIT DEEPER. THIS WOULD INCREASE
PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LI/CT.

AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SIGNALING A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES. THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE MID-
LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH LOCATION WILL BE
KEY TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY STEADIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. THE STRENGTH/POSITION OF THIS
FEATURE HAS WAVERED FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...INSTILLING LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS FEATURE SETS UP.
WITH THE ABOVE UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL HAVE MAINTAINED AN W TO E
GRADIENT OF ONLY CHANCE POPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.

FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT FALL UNDER THE INVERTED TROUGH OR
WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD...THERE WILL BE AN ISO/SCT THREAT
FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
UNDER COMBO OF MID- LEVEL VORT ENERGY AND COLD POOL INSTABILITY.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL TAPERING OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN TRI-STATE.

IN TERMS OF P-TYPE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP...CAA TONIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD
ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO WET SNOW LATE TONIGHT. IF PRECIP
IS STEADY ENOUGH A MAINLY WET SNOW WOULD BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
BASED ON THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT...BUT IF IT IS VERY LIGHT AND
SCATTERED IN NATURE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD BE LIKELY DUE TO WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS.

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT IS 1-2 INCHES OR LESS OF WET
SNOW FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH A COATING
TO NOTHING FURTHER WEST. IF INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION...OR OFFSHORE LOW TRACKS A BIT FARTHER WEST...AN ADVISORY
LEVEL WET SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY LI/CT.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
POOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY...WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH...WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALOFT. THICKNESSES QUICKLY BUILD ON
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE IN THE
DAY...WHICH MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AS COMPARED TO
SATURDAY...MAINLY FOR NYC...NORTHEAST NJ...AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT MAY SEE ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING
THE DAY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE COLD OCEAN WATERS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MEAN PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WELL INLAND. ANY SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING
ON MONDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS PRETTY ZONAL. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FOR TUESDAY. A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPARTING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FLAKES MIXING IN TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW.

A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH
ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY THROUGH MOST TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SE TODAY WITH ONLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT.

RAIN/SHRA CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING PUSH WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CONDS...ALTHOUGH TEMPO VFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE AROUND
09Z. VFR THEN PREVAILS AFTER 13-15Z.

WINDS N-NNW WITH GUSTS AT THE CITY TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 12-14Z.
WINDS THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY WITH NO FREQUENT GUSTS THEREAFTER.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. N WINDS G15-20KT.
.SAT NIGHT-.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. SW WINDS 15G20KT...BECOMING WNW AT NIGHT.
.TUE...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDE OF HIGH
SOUTHERLY SWELLS. MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON OCEAN TONIGHT WITH
GUSTY NW FLOW...CAA...AND RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS...WITH BETTER
CHANCE OF SCA CONDS SAT NIGHT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW AND
AS HIGH PRESSURE IN FROM THE WEST.

WAVES DIMINISH TO SUB SCA ON SUNDAY...BUT BUILD TO ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WINDS MAINLY OVER THE OCEAN WATERS WILL
GUST TO 25 KT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WAVES QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN TO ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM...THEN DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 TENTHS QPF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND
MOVEMENT INTO THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JP/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270824
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
424 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MARITIMES
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY AND
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THEREAFTER. FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS SLID EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGIES...AND
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR
LINGERING POST- FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF
NYC METRO AND POINTS WEST THIS MORNING AND LIKELY NOT UNTIL
AFTERNOON FOR E LI/SE CT.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. AROUND 50 NYC/NJ METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY PIVOTS TO THE EAST COAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW TRACKING OVER THE TRI-
STATE TO MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WELL SE
OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
STAYING FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FROM THIS
LOW OFFSHORE. BUT THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS...EXCEPT FOR OPERATIONAL
ECWMF...DO SPREAD WESTERN EDGE OF LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD INTO FAR
EASTERN LI/SE CT TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SUNYSB SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SLIGHT SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON WEST SIDE
OF LOW TRACK...DEPICTING A LOW PROB OF SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST
SOLUTION IF THE TROUGH DIGS A BIT DEEPER. THIS WOULD INCREASE
PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LI/CT.

AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SIGNALING A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES. THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE MID-
LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH LOCATION WILL BE
KEY TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY STEADIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. THE STRENGTH/POSITION OF THIS
FEATURE HAS WAVERED FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...INSTILLING LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS FEATURE SETS UP.
WITH THE ABOVE UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL HAVE MAINTAINED AN W TO E
GRADIENT OF ONLY CHANCE POPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.

FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT FALL UNDER THE INVERTED TROUGH OR
WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD...THERE WILL BE AN ISO/SCT THREAT
FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
UNDER COMBO OF MID- LEVEL VORT ENERGY AND COLD POOL INSTABILITY.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL TAPERING OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN TRI-STATE.

IN TERMS OF P-TYPE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP...CAA TONIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD
ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO WET SNOW LATE TONIGHT. IF PRECIP
IS STEADY ENOUGH A MAINLY WET SNOW WOULD BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
BASED ON THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT...BUT IF IT IS VERY LIGHT AND
SCATTERED IN NATURE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD BE LIKELY DUE TO WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS.

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT IS 1-2 INCHES OR LESS OF WET
SNOW FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH A COATING
TO NOTHING FURTHER WEST. IF INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION...OR OFFSHORE LOW TRACKS A BIT FARTHER WEST...AN ADVISORY
LEVEL WET SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY LI/CT.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
POOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY...WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH...WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALOFT. THICKNESSES QUICKLY BUILD ON
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE IN THE
DAY...WHICH MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AS COMPARED TO
SATURDAY...MAINLY FOR NYC...NORTHEAST NJ...AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT MAY SEE ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING
THE DAY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE COLD OCEAN WATERS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MEAN PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WELL INLAND. ANY SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING
ON MONDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS PRETTY ZONAL. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FOR TUESDAY. A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPARTING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FLAKES MIXING IN TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW.

A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH
ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY THROUGH MOST TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SE TODAY WITH ONLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT.

RAIN/SHRA CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING PUSH WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CONDS...ALTHOUGH TEMPO VFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE AROUND
09Z. VFR THEN PREVAILS AFTER 13-15Z.

WINDS N-NNW WITH GUSTS AT THE CITY TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 12-14Z.
WINDS THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY WITH NO FREQUENT GUSTS THEREAFTER.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. N WINDS G15-20KT.
.SAT NIGHT-.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. SW WINDS 15G20KT...BECOMING WNW AT NIGHT.
.TUE...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDE OF HIGH
SOUTHERLY SWELLS. MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON OCEAN TONIGHT WITH
GUSTY NW FLOW...CAA...AND RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS...WITH BETTER
CHANCE OF SCA CONDS SAT NIGHT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW AND
AS HIGH PRESSURE IN FROM THE WEST.

WAVES DIMINISH TO SUB SCA ON SUNDAY...BUT BUILD TO ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WINDS MAINLY OVER THE OCEAN WATERS WILL
GUST TO 25 KT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WAVES QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN TO ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM...THEN DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 TENTHS QPF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND
MOVEMENT INTO THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JP/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 270824
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
424 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MARITIMES
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY AND
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THEREAFTER. FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS SLID EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGIES...AND
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR
LINGERING POST- FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF
NYC METRO AND POINTS WEST THIS MORNING AND LIKELY NOT UNTIL
AFTERNOON FOR E LI/SE CT.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. AROUND 50 NYC/NJ METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY PIVOTS TO THE EAST COAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW TRACKING OVER THE TRI-
STATE TO MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WELL SE
OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
STAYING FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FROM THIS
LOW OFFSHORE. BUT THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS...EXCEPT FOR OPERATIONAL
ECWMF...DO SPREAD WESTERN EDGE OF LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD INTO FAR
EASTERN LI/SE CT TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SUNYSB SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SLIGHT SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON WEST SIDE
OF LOW TRACK...DEPICTING A LOW PROB OF SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST
SOLUTION IF THE TROUGH DIGS A BIT DEEPER. THIS WOULD INCREASE
PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LI/CT.

AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SIGNALING A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES. THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE MID-
LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH LOCATION WILL BE
KEY TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY STEADIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. THE STRENGTH/POSITION OF THIS
FEATURE HAS WAVERED FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...INSTILLING LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS FEATURE SETS UP.
WITH THE ABOVE UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL HAVE MAINTAINED AN W TO E
GRADIENT OF ONLY CHANCE POPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.

FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT FALL UNDER THE INVERTED TROUGH OR
WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD...THERE WILL BE AN ISO/SCT THREAT
FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
UNDER COMBO OF MID- LEVEL VORT ENERGY AND COLD POOL INSTABILITY.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL TAPERING OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN TRI-STATE.

IN TERMS OF P-TYPE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP...CAA TONIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD
ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO WET SNOW LATE TONIGHT. IF PRECIP
IS STEADY ENOUGH A MAINLY WET SNOW WOULD BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
BASED ON THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT...BUT IF IT IS VERY LIGHT AND
SCATTERED IN NATURE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD BE LIKELY DUE TO WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS.

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT IS 1-2 INCHES OR LESS OF WET
SNOW FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH A COATING
TO NOTHING FURTHER WEST. IF INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION...OR OFFSHORE LOW TRACKS A BIT FARTHER WEST...AN ADVISORY
LEVEL WET SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY LI/CT.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
POOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY...WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH...WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALOFT. THICKNESSES QUICKLY BUILD ON
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE IN THE
DAY...WHICH MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AS COMPARED TO
SATURDAY...MAINLY FOR NYC...NORTHEAST NJ...AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT MAY SEE ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING
THE DAY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE COLD OCEAN WATERS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MEAN PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WELL INLAND. ANY SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING
ON MONDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS PRETTY ZONAL. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FOR TUESDAY. A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPARTING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FLAKES MIXING IN TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW.

A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH
ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY THROUGH MOST TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SE TODAY WITH ONLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT.

RAIN/SHRA CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING PUSH WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CONDS...ALTHOUGH TEMPO VFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE AROUND
09Z. VFR THEN PREVAILS AFTER 13-15Z.

WINDS N-NNW WITH GUSTS AT THE CITY TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 12-14Z.
WINDS THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY WITH NO FREQUENT GUSTS THEREAFTER.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. N WINDS G15-20KT.
.SAT NIGHT-.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. SW WINDS 15G20KT...BECOMING WNW AT NIGHT.
.TUE...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDE OF HIGH
SOUTHERLY SWELLS. MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON OCEAN TONIGHT WITH
GUSTY NW FLOW...CAA...AND RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS...WITH BETTER
CHANCE OF SCA CONDS SAT NIGHT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW AND
AS HIGH PRESSURE IN FROM THE WEST.

WAVES DIMINISH TO SUB SCA ON SUNDAY...BUT BUILD TO ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WINDS MAINLY OVER THE OCEAN WATERS WILL
GUST TO 25 KT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WAVES QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN TO ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM...THEN DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 TENTHS QPF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND
MOVEMENT INTO THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JP/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 270824
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
424 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MARITIMES
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY AND
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THEREAFTER. FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS SLID EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGIES...AND
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR
LINGERING POST- FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF
NYC METRO AND POINTS WEST THIS MORNING AND LIKELY NOT UNTIL
AFTERNOON FOR E LI/SE CT.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. AROUND 50 NYC/NJ METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY PIVOTS TO THE EAST COAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW TRACKING OVER THE TRI-
STATE TO MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WELL SE
OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
STAYING FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FROM THIS
LOW OFFSHORE. BUT THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS...EXCEPT FOR OPERATIONAL
ECWMF...DO SPREAD WESTERN EDGE OF LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD INTO FAR
EASTERN LI/SE CT TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SUNYSB SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SLIGHT SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON WEST SIDE
OF LOW TRACK...DEPICTING A LOW PROB OF SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST
SOLUTION IF THE TROUGH DIGS A BIT DEEPER. THIS WOULD INCREASE
PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LI/CT.

AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SIGNALING A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES. THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE MID-
LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH LOCATION WILL BE
KEY TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY STEADIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. THE STRENGTH/POSITION OF THIS
FEATURE HAS WAVERED FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...INSTILLING LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS FEATURE SETS UP.
WITH THE ABOVE UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL HAVE MAINTAINED AN W TO E
GRADIENT OF ONLY CHANCE POPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.

FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT FALL UNDER THE INVERTED TROUGH OR
WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD...THERE WILL BE AN ISO/SCT THREAT
FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
UNDER COMBO OF MID- LEVEL VORT ENERGY AND COLD POOL INSTABILITY.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL TAPERING OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN TRI-STATE.

IN TERMS OF P-TYPE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP...CAA TONIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD
ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO WET SNOW LATE TONIGHT. IF PRECIP
IS STEADY ENOUGH A MAINLY WET SNOW WOULD BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
BASED ON THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT...BUT IF IT IS VERY LIGHT AND
SCATTERED IN NATURE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD BE LIKELY DUE TO WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS.

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT IS 1-2 INCHES OR LESS OF WET
SNOW FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH A COATING
TO NOTHING FURTHER WEST. IF INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION...OR OFFSHORE LOW TRACKS A BIT FARTHER WEST...AN ADVISORY
LEVEL WET SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY LI/CT.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
POOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY...WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH...WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALOFT. THICKNESSES QUICKLY BUILD ON
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE IN THE
DAY...WHICH MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AS COMPARED TO
SATURDAY...MAINLY FOR NYC...NORTHEAST NJ...AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT MAY SEE ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING
THE DAY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE COLD OCEAN WATERS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MEAN PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WELL INLAND. ANY SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING
ON MONDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS PRETTY ZONAL. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FOR TUESDAY. A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPARTING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FLAKES MIXING IN TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW.

A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH
ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY THROUGH MOST TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SE TODAY WITH ONLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT.

RAIN/SHRA CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING PUSH WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CONDS...ALTHOUGH TEMPO VFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE AROUND
09Z. VFR THEN PREVAILS AFTER 13-15Z.

WINDS N-NNW WITH GUSTS AT THE CITY TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 12-14Z.
WINDS THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY WITH NO FREQUENT GUSTS THEREAFTER.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. N WINDS G15-20KT.
.SAT NIGHT-.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. SW WINDS 15G20KT...BECOMING WNW AT NIGHT.
.TUE...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDE OF HIGH
SOUTHERLY SWELLS. MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON OCEAN TONIGHT WITH
GUSTY NW FLOW...CAA...AND RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS...WITH BETTER
CHANCE OF SCA CONDS SAT NIGHT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW AND
AS HIGH PRESSURE IN FROM THE WEST.

WAVES DIMINISH TO SUB SCA ON SUNDAY...BUT BUILD TO ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WINDS MAINLY OVER THE OCEAN WATERS WILL
GUST TO 25 KT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WAVES QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN TO ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM...THEN DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 TENTHS QPF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND
MOVEMENT INTO THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JP/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270546
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
146 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MARITIMES
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY AND
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THEREAFTER. FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION WITH GRADUAL CAA. POST
FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA BUT THE APPROACHING UPR JET COULD SUSTAIN
LGT RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE MRNG. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING
LOW PRES OFFSHORE AS THE H5 SHTRWV APPROACHES. THE NAM HAD HINTED
AT THIS YESTERDAY...AND NOW THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE LONE SOLN WITH
THE 12Z SUITE...HAS LATCHED ON. THIS WOULD BRING PCPN IN LATE FRI
AFTN/EVE...THEN SPREADING WWD FRI NGT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PCPN
WOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD UPR TROF MOVES IN.
WITH NLY COMPONENT FLOW...THIS CHANGEOVER WOULD OCCUR EVEN DOWN TO
THE COASTS. HAVE INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR THIS EVENT...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF AND NAM SOLNS WOULD LEAVE THE AREA WITH BENIGN WX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DIAGNOSED BY SHARPER AND LESS
WAVELENGTH OF TROUGHS AND CORRESPONDING RIDGES. BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK...THERE IS A LONGER WAVELENGTH AND HENCE CLOSER TO A ZONAL TYPE
OF FLOW OCCURRING WHICH WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED.

THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA AND BECOMING MORE BROAD WITH
LESS WIND SPEED FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...ONE FEATURE TO FOCUS ON IS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE LOW DEPENDING
ON THE MODEL CHOSEN...IS APPROXIMATELY NEAR THE 40N AND 65W
COORDINATES. THE GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW...MOVING IT
FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND CMC ARE REMARKABLY SLOWER.

ONCE THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE...ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA...WILL
GAIN MORE INFLUENCE AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER LOW
MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BEHIND IT LEADING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES IN.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...OVERALL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE. THIS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED THIS WEEKEND WITH FORECAST
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS TO WATCH FOR PRECIPITATION. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION TO THE WEST OF THE OFFSHORE DEEPENING LOW. QUITE THE
UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH NAM AND ECMWF SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION WHILE CMC AND GFS SHOW A LIGHT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. CURRENT
FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT AN AVERAGE OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW AND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING...A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES PLACE AS
WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AS FAR AS HOW MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATES ON THE GROUND.

OTHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MORE IN THE NATURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT THURSDAY. THESE
ARE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY THROUGH MOST TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SE TODAY WITH ONLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT.

RAIN/SHRA CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING PUSH WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CONDS...ALTHOUGH TEMPO VFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE AROUND
09Z. VFR THEN PREVAILS AFTER 13-15Z.

WINDS N-NNW WITH GUSTS AT THE CITY TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 12-14Z.
WINDS THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY WITH NO FREQUENT GUSTS THEREAFTER.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. N WINDS G15-20KT.
.SAT NIGHT-.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. SW WINDS 15G20KT...BECOMING WNW AT NIGHT.
.TUE...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE WATERS WITH SUB SCA N/NW WINDS
AND IMPROVING VSBY.

SCA COND REMAIN ON THE OCEAN TODAY IN HIGH SOUTHERLY SWELLS...AND
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AT LEAST THRU FRI NGT.

SCA POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL AS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA IS TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SCA CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIME PERIODS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 TENTHS QPF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANK FULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW
WILL INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS
UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...NV
HYDROLOGY...NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270546
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
146 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MARITIMES
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY AND
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THEREAFTER. FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION WITH GRADUAL CAA. POST
FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA BUT THE APPROACHING UPR JET COULD SUSTAIN
LGT RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE MRNG. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING
LOW PRES OFFSHORE AS THE H5 SHTRWV APPROACHES. THE NAM HAD HINTED
AT THIS YESTERDAY...AND NOW THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE LONE SOLN WITH
THE 12Z SUITE...HAS LATCHED ON. THIS WOULD BRING PCPN IN LATE FRI
AFTN/EVE...THEN SPREADING WWD FRI NGT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PCPN
WOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD UPR TROF MOVES IN.
WITH NLY COMPONENT FLOW...THIS CHANGEOVER WOULD OCCUR EVEN DOWN TO
THE COASTS. HAVE INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR THIS EVENT...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF AND NAM SOLNS WOULD LEAVE THE AREA WITH BENIGN WX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DIAGNOSED BY SHARPER AND LESS
WAVELENGTH OF TROUGHS AND CORRESPONDING RIDGES. BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK...THERE IS A LONGER WAVELENGTH AND HENCE CLOSER TO A ZONAL TYPE
OF FLOW OCCURRING WHICH WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED.

THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA AND BECOMING MORE BROAD WITH
LESS WIND SPEED FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...ONE FEATURE TO FOCUS ON IS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE LOW DEPENDING
ON THE MODEL CHOSEN...IS APPROXIMATELY NEAR THE 40N AND 65W
COORDINATES. THE GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW...MOVING IT
FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND CMC ARE REMARKABLY SLOWER.

ONCE THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE...ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA...WILL
GAIN MORE INFLUENCE AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER LOW
MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BEHIND IT LEADING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES IN.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...OVERALL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE. THIS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED THIS WEEKEND WITH FORECAST
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS TO WATCH FOR PRECIPITATION. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION TO THE WEST OF THE OFFSHORE DEEPENING LOW. QUITE THE
UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH NAM AND ECMWF SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION WHILE CMC AND GFS SHOW A LIGHT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. CURRENT
FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT AN AVERAGE OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW AND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING...A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES PLACE AS
WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AS FAR AS HOW MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATES ON THE GROUND.

OTHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MORE IN THE NATURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT THURSDAY. THESE
ARE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY THROUGH MOST TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SE TODAY WITH ONLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT.

RAIN/SHRA CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING PUSH WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CONDS...ALTHOUGH TEMPO VFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE AROUND
09Z. VFR THEN PREVAILS AFTER 13-15Z.

WINDS N-NNW WITH GUSTS AT THE CITY TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 12-14Z.
WINDS THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY WITH NO FREQUENT GUSTS THEREAFTER.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. N WINDS G15-20KT.
.SAT NIGHT-.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. SW WINDS 15G20KT...BECOMING WNW AT NIGHT.
.TUE...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE WATERS WITH SUB SCA N/NW WINDS
AND IMPROVING VSBY.

SCA COND REMAIN ON THE OCEAN TODAY IN HIGH SOUTHERLY SWELLS...AND
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AT LEAST THRU FRI NGT.

SCA POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL AS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA IS TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SCA CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIME PERIODS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 TENTHS QPF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANK FULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW
WILL INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS
UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...NV
HYDROLOGY...NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 270546
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
146 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MARITIMES
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY AND
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THEREAFTER. FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION WITH GRADUAL CAA. POST
FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA BUT THE APPROACHING UPR JET COULD SUSTAIN
LGT RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE MRNG. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING
LOW PRES OFFSHORE AS THE H5 SHTRWV APPROACHES. THE NAM HAD HINTED
AT THIS YESTERDAY...AND NOW THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE LONE SOLN WITH
THE 12Z SUITE...HAS LATCHED ON. THIS WOULD BRING PCPN IN LATE FRI
AFTN/EVE...THEN SPREADING WWD FRI NGT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PCPN
WOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD UPR TROF MOVES IN.
WITH NLY COMPONENT FLOW...THIS CHANGEOVER WOULD OCCUR EVEN DOWN TO
THE COASTS. HAVE INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR THIS EVENT...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF AND NAM SOLNS WOULD LEAVE THE AREA WITH BENIGN WX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DIAGNOSED BY SHARPER AND LESS
WAVELENGTH OF TROUGHS AND CORRESPONDING RIDGES. BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK...THERE IS A LONGER WAVELENGTH AND HENCE CLOSER TO A ZONAL TYPE
OF FLOW OCCURRING WHICH WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED.

THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA AND BECOMING MORE BROAD WITH
LESS WIND SPEED FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...ONE FEATURE TO FOCUS ON IS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE LOW DEPENDING
ON THE MODEL CHOSEN...IS APPROXIMATELY NEAR THE 40N AND 65W
COORDINATES. THE GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW...MOVING IT
FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND CMC ARE REMARKABLY SLOWER.

ONCE THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE...ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA...WILL
GAIN MORE INFLUENCE AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER LOW
MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BEHIND IT LEADING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES IN.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...OVERALL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE. THIS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED THIS WEEKEND WITH FORECAST
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS TO WATCH FOR PRECIPITATION. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION TO THE WEST OF THE OFFSHORE DEEPENING LOW. QUITE THE
UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH NAM AND ECMWF SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION WHILE CMC AND GFS SHOW A LIGHT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. CURRENT
FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT AN AVERAGE OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW AND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING...A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES PLACE AS
WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AS FAR AS HOW MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATES ON THE GROUND.

OTHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MORE IN THE NATURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT THURSDAY. THESE
ARE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY THROUGH MOST TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SE TODAY WITH ONLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT.

RAIN/SHRA CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING PUSH WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CONDS...ALTHOUGH TEMPO VFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE AROUND
09Z. VFR THEN PREVAILS AFTER 13-15Z.

WINDS N-NNW WITH GUSTS AT THE CITY TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 12-14Z.
WINDS THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY WITH NO FREQUENT GUSTS THEREAFTER.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. N WINDS G15-20KT.
.SAT NIGHT-.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. SW WINDS 15G20KT...BECOMING WNW AT NIGHT.
.TUE...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE WATERS WITH SUB SCA N/NW WINDS
AND IMPROVING VSBY.

SCA COND REMAIN ON THE OCEAN TODAY IN HIGH SOUTHERLY SWELLS...AND
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AT LEAST THRU FRI NGT.

SCA POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL AS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA IS TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SCA CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIME PERIODS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 TENTHS QPF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANK FULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW
WILL INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS
UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...NV
HYDROLOGY...NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 270546
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
146 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MARITIMES
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY AND
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THEREAFTER. FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION WITH GRADUAL CAA. POST
FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA BUT THE APPROACHING UPR JET COULD SUSTAIN
LGT RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE MRNG. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING
LOW PRES OFFSHORE AS THE H5 SHTRWV APPROACHES. THE NAM HAD HINTED
AT THIS YESTERDAY...AND NOW THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE LONE SOLN WITH
THE 12Z SUITE...HAS LATCHED ON. THIS WOULD BRING PCPN IN LATE FRI
AFTN/EVE...THEN SPREADING WWD FRI NGT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PCPN
WOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD UPR TROF MOVES IN.
WITH NLY COMPONENT FLOW...THIS CHANGEOVER WOULD OCCUR EVEN DOWN TO
THE COASTS. HAVE INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR THIS EVENT...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF AND NAM SOLNS WOULD LEAVE THE AREA WITH BENIGN WX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DIAGNOSED BY SHARPER AND LESS
WAVELENGTH OF TROUGHS AND CORRESPONDING RIDGES. BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK...THERE IS A LONGER WAVELENGTH AND HENCE CLOSER TO A ZONAL TYPE
OF FLOW OCCURRING WHICH WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED.

THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA AND BECOMING MORE BROAD WITH
LESS WIND SPEED FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...ONE FEATURE TO FOCUS ON IS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE LOW DEPENDING
ON THE MODEL CHOSEN...IS APPROXIMATELY NEAR THE 40N AND 65W
COORDINATES. THE GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW...MOVING IT
FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND CMC ARE REMARKABLY SLOWER.

ONCE THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE...ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA...WILL
GAIN MORE INFLUENCE AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER LOW
MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BEHIND IT LEADING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES IN.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...OVERALL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE. THIS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED THIS WEEKEND WITH FORECAST
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS TO WATCH FOR PRECIPITATION. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION TO THE WEST OF THE OFFSHORE DEEPENING LOW. QUITE THE
UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH NAM AND ECMWF SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION WHILE CMC AND GFS SHOW A LIGHT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. CURRENT
FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT AN AVERAGE OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW AND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING...A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES PLACE AS
WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AS FAR AS HOW MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATES ON THE GROUND.

OTHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MORE IN THE NATURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT THURSDAY. THESE
ARE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY THROUGH MOST TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SE TODAY WITH ONLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT.

RAIN/SHRA CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING PUSH WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CONDS...ALTHOUGH TEMPO VFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE AROUND
09Z. VFR THEN PREVAILS AFTER 13-15Z.

WINDS N-NNW WITH GUSTS AT THE CITY TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 12-14Z.
WINDS THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY WITH NO FREQUENT GUSTS THEREAFTER.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. N WINDS G15-20KT.
.SAT NIGHT-.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. SW WINDS 15G20KT...BECOMING WNW AT NIGHT.
.TUE...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE WATERS WITH SUB SCA N/NW WINDS
AND IMPROVING VSBY.

SCA COND REMAIN ON THE OCEAN TODAY IN HIGH SOUTHERLY SWELLS...AND
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AT LEAST THRU FRI NGT.

SCA POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL AS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA IS TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SCA CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIME PERIODS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 TENTHS QPF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANK FULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW
WILL INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS
UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...NV
HYDROLOGY...NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270223
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1023 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE
MARITIMES SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
SATURDAY AND MOVES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER. FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF
CLIPPER LOWS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND WAS THROUGH
WESTERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY...AND TO COASTAL CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY AT 02Z. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH. WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IMPROVED TO A
MILE OR MORE SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED. LINE WAS
WEAKENING AS STORMS MOVED INTO MORE STABLE AIR THROUGH CONNECTICUT
AND EAST OF NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA BUT THE APPROACHING UPR JET COULD SUSTAIN
LGT RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE MRNG. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING
LOW PRES OFFSHORE AS THE H5 SHTRWV APPROACHES. THE NAM HAD HINTED
AT THIS YESTERDAY...AND NOW THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE LONE SOLN WITH
THE 12Z SUITE...HAS LATCHED ON. THIS WOULD BRING PCPN IN LATE FRI
AFTN/EVE...THEN SPREADING WWD FRI NGT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PCPN
WOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD UPR TROF MOVES IN.
WITH NLY COMPONENT FLOW...THIS CHANGEOVER WOULD OCCUR EVEN DOWN TO
THE COASTS. HAVE INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR THIS EVENT...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF AND NAM SOLNS WOULD LEAVE THE AREA WITH BENIGN WX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DIAGNOSED BY SHARPER AND LESS
WAVELENGTH OF TROUGHS AND CORRESPONDING RIDGES. BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK...THERE IS A LONGER WAVELENGTH AND HENCE CLOSER TO A ZONAL TYPE
OF FLOW OCCURRING WHICH WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED.

THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA AND BECOMING MORE BROAD WITH
LESS WIND SPEED FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...ONE FEATURE TO FOCUS ON IS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE LOW DEPENDING
ON THE MODEL CHOSEN...IS APPROXIMATELY NEAR THE 40N AND 65W
COORDINATES. THE GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW...MOVING IT
FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND CMC ARE REMARKABLY SLOWER.

ONCE THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE...ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA...WILL
GAIN MORE INFLUENCE AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER LOW
MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BEHIND IT LEADING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES IN.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...OVERALL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE. THIS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED THIS WEEKEND WITH FORECAST
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS TO WATCH FOR PRECIPITATION. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION TO THE WEST OF THE OFFSHORE DEEPENING LOW. QUITE THE
UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH NAM AND ECMWF SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION WHILE CMC AND GFS SHOW A LIGHT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. CURRENT
FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT AN AVERAGE OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW AND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING...A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES PLACE AS
WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AS FAR AS HOW MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATES ON THE GROUND.

OTHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MORE IN THE NATURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT THURSDAY. THESE
ARE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT. AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CONDS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATION BETWEEN VFR AND IFR/LIFR EARLY THIS
EVE. AT 00Z...COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING ORANGE COUNTY AND
WESTERN NJ. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA MAY MIX UP THE CIGS
WITH VRB CONDS CONTINUING...ALTHOUGH EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDS TO
MOSTLY PREVAIL UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES...THEN MVFR CONDS SHOULD
RETURN ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY
EASTERN TERMINALS. OTHER UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER CIGS ARE ABOVE OR
BELOW 2K FT.  KGON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR OR LOWER UNTIL FRI
MORNING. VFR CONDS RETURN W TO E FRI AFTN ALTHOUGH THIS MAY OCCUR
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

COULD SEE GUSTS 25-30KT WITH THE FROPA THIS EVE. THEN GUSTY NW
WINDS EXPECTED AFT 04Z AT NYC TERMINALS.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 03Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN VFR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 03Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN VFR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 02Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN VFR.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 02Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN VFR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 03Z WITH LIFR CONDS
IMPROVING TO IFR...THEN MVFR AFTER 06Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI
MORNING...THEN VFR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 04Z WITH LIFR CONDS
IMPROVING TO IFR...THEN MVFR AFTER 06Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI
MORNING...THEN VFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. N WINDS G15-20KT.
.SAT NIGHT-.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. SW WINDS 15G20KT...BECOMING WNW AT NIGHT.
.TUE...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST WATERS...AND
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY THIS EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN OVER THE WATERS. UPDATED
WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN
UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SRN WATERS WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN. POTENTIAL OF OCNL SCA GUSTS ON THE
SOUND IF THE FRONT MAKES IT THRU. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALSO LIKELY
TIL MIDNIGHT...THEN THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT DISSIPATES IT LATE. SCA
COND REMAIN ON THE OCEAN FRI...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
AT LEAST THRU FRI NGT.

SCA POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL AS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA IS TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SCA CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIME PERIODS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO A QUARTER INCH WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF PCPN IS EXPECTED INTO FRI MRNG. NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ATTM.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANK FULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW
WILL INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS
UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JMC/JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270128
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
928 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
FRI NIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MARITIMES SATURDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY AND MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER. FOR THE
NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BREAK IN THE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
REGION AND ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND RAISED
POPS 00Z TO 02Z. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE LINE MOVES INTO MORE STABLE
AIR AHEAD OF THE WARM FROM WHICH IS THROUGH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.

DENSE FOG INVOF THE FRONT...WITH THE NARRE SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG LI AND CT BEFORE THE CDFNT ACROSS UPSTATE NY PASSES LATE
TNGT. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY AS A RESULT. THERE IS ALREADY
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AREA...AND A COOLING BL THIS EVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR EXPANSION.

MAIN LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE GUSTY SLY WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR.

OTHERWISE...WAA SHWR AND TSTMS EXITING THE CWA TO THE NE. MAIN
BAND OF PCPN WITH THE CDFNT GETS HERE TNGT. MAINTAINED ISOLD TSTMS
WITH THE FROPA AS THERE WAS SOME LIGHTNING ACTION UPSTREAM TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA BUT THE APPROACHING UPR JET COULD SUSTAIN
LGT RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE MRNG. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING
LOW PRES OFFSHORE AS THE H5 SHTRWV APPROACHES. THE NAM HAD HINTED
AT THIS YESTERDAY...AND NOW THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE LONE SOLN WITH
THE 12Z SUITE...HAS LATCHED ON. THIS WOULD BRING PCPN IN LATE FRI
AFTN/EVE...THEN SPREADING WWD FRI NGT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PCPN
WOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD UPR TROF MOVES IN.
WITH NLY COMPONENT FLOW...THIS CHANGEOVER WOULD OCCUR EVEN DOWN TO
THE COASTS. HAVE INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR THIS EVENT...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF AND NAM SOLNS WOULD LEAVE THE AREA WITH BENIGN WX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DIAGNOSED BY SHARPER AND LESS
WAVELENGTH OF TROUGHS AND CORRESPONDING RIDGES. BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK...THERE IS A LONGER WAVELENGTH AND HENCE CLOSER TO A ZONAL TYPE
OF FLOW OCCURRING WHICH WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED.

THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA AND BECOMING MORE BROAD WITH
LESS WIND SPEED FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...ONE FEATURE TO FOCUS ON IS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE LOW DEPENDING
ON THE MODEL CHOSEN...IS APPROXIMATELY NEAR THE 40N AND 65W
COORDINATES. THE GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW...MOVING IT
FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND CMC ARE REMARKABLY SLOWER.

ONCE THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE...ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA...WILL
GAIN MORE INFLUENCE AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER LOW
MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BEHIND IT LEADING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES IN.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...OVERALL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE. THIS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED THIS WEEKEND WITH FORECAST
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS TO WATCH FOR PRECIPITATION. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION TO THE WEST OF THE OFFSHORE DEEPENING LOW. QUITE THE
UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH NAM AND ECMWF SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION WHILE CMC AND GFS SHOW A LIGHT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. CURRENT
FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT AN AVERAGE OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW AND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING...A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES PLACE AS
WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AS FAR AS HOW MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATES ON THE GROUND.

OTHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MORE IN THE NATURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT THURSDAY. THESE
ARE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT. AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CONDS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATION BETWEEN VFR AND IFR/LIFR EARLY THIS
EVE. AT 00Z...COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING ORANGE COUNTY AND
WESTERN NJ. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA MAY MIX UP THE CIGS
WITH VRB CONDS CONTINUING...ALTHOUGH EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDS TO
MOSTLY PREVAIL UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES...THEN MVFR CONDS SHOULD
RETURN ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY
EASTERN TERMINALS. OTHER UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER CIGS ARE ABOVE OR
BELOW 2K FT.  KGON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR OR LOWER UNTIL FRI
MORNING. VFR CONDS RETURN W TO E FRI AFTN ALTHOUGH THIS MAY OCCUR
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

COULD SEE GUSTS 25-30KT WITH THE FROPA THIS EVE. THEN GUSTY NW
WINDS EXPECTED AFT 04Z AT NYC TERMINALS.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 03Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN VFR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 03Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN VFR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 02Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN VFR.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 02Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN VFR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 03Z WITH LIFR CONDS
IMPROVING TO IFR...THEN MVFR AFTER 06Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI
MORNING...THEN VFR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 04Z WITH LIFR CONDS
IMPROVING TO IFR...THEN MVFR AFTER 06Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI
MORNING...THEN VFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. N WINDS G15-20KT.
.SAT NIGHT-.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. SW WINDS 15G20KT...BECOMING WNW AT NIGHT.
.TUE...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST WATERS...AND
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY THIS EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN OVER THE WATERS. UPDATED
WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN
UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SRN WATERS WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN. POTENTIAL OF OCNL SCA GUSTS ON THE
SOUND IF THE FRONT MAKES IT THRU. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALSO LIKELY
TIL MIDNIGHT...THEN THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT DISSIPATES IT LATE. SCA
COND REMAIN ON THE OCEAN FRI...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
AT LEAST THRU FRI NGT.

SCA POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL AS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA IS TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SCA CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIME PERIODS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HALF INCH OR LESS OF PCPN IS EXPECTED INTO FRI MRNG. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ATTM.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANK FULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW
WILL INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS
UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ078>081-
     177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JMC/JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM





000
FXUS61 KOKX 270128
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
928 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
FRI NIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MARITIMES SATURDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY AND MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER. FOR THE
NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BREAK IN THE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
REGION AND ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND RAISED
POPS 00Z TO 02Z. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE LINE MOVES INTO MORE STABLE
AIR AHEAD OF THE WARM FROM WHICH IS THROUGH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.

DENSE FOG INVOF THE FRONT...WITH THE NARRE SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG LI AND CT BEFORE THE CDFNT ACROSS UPSTATE NY PASSES LATE
TNGT. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY AS A RESULT. THERE IS ALREADY
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AREA...AND A COOLING BL THIS EVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR EXPANSION.

MAIN LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE GUSTY SLY WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR.

OTHERWISE...WAA SHWR AND TSTMS EXITING THE CWA TO THE NE. MAIN
BAND OF PCPN WITH THE CDFNT GETS HERE TNGT. MAINTAINED ISOLD TSTMS
WITH THE FROPA AS THERE WAS SOME LIGHTNING ACTION UPSTREAM TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA BUT THE APPROACHING UPR JET COULD SUSTAIN
LGT RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE MRNG. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING
LOW PRES OFFSHORE AS THE H5 SHTRWV APPROACHES. THE NAM HAD HINTED
AT THIS YESTERDAY...AND NOW THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE LONE SOLN WITH
THE 12Z SUITE...HAS LATCHED ON. THIS WOULD BRING PCPN IN LATE FRI
AFTN/EVE...THEN SPREADING WWD FRI NGT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PCPN
WOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD UPR TROF MOVES IN.
WITH NLY COMPONENT FLOW...THIS CHANGEOVER WOULD OCCUR EVEN DOWN TO
THE COASTS. HAVE INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR THIS EVENT...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF AND NAM SOLNS WOULD LEAVE THE AREA WITH BENIGN WX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DIAGNOSED BY SHARPER AND LESS
WAVELENGTH OF TROUGHS AND CORRESPONDING RIDGES. BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK...THERE IS A LONGER WAVELENGTH AND HENCE CLOSER TO A ZONAL TYPE
OF FLOW OCCURRING WHICH WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED.

THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA AND BECOMING MORE BROAD WITH
LESS WIND SPEED FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...ONE FEATURE TO FOCUS ON IS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE LOW DEPENDING
ON THE MODEL CHOSEN...IS APPROXIMATELY NEAR THE 40N AND 65W
COORDINATES. THE GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW...MOVING IT
FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND CMC ARE REMARKABLY SLOWER.

ONCE THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE...ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA...WILL
GAIN MORE INFLUENCE AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER LOW
MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BEHIND IT LEADING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES IN.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...OVERALL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE. THIS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED THIS WEEKEND WITH FORECAST
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS TO WATCH FOR PRECIPITATION. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION TO THE WEST OF THE OFFSHORE DEEPENING LOW. QUITE THE
UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH NAM AND ECMWF SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION WHILE CMC AND GFS SHOW A LIGHT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. CURRENT
FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT AN AVERAGE OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW AND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING...A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES PLACE AS
WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AS FAR AS HOW MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATES ON THE GROUND.

OTHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MORE IN THE NATURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT THURSDAY. THESE
ARE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT. AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CONDS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATION BETWEEN VFR AND IFR/LIFR EARLY THIS
EVE. AT 00Z...COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING ORANGE COUNTY AND
WESTERN NJ. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA MAY MIX UP THE CIGS
WITH VRB CONDS CONTINUING...ALTHOUGH EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDS TO
MOSTLY PREVAIL UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES...THEN MVFR CONDS SHOULD
RETURN ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY
EASTERN TERMINALS. OTHER UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER CIGS ARE ABOVE OR
BELOW 2K FT.  KGON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR OR LOWER UNTIL FRI
MORNING. VFR CONDS RETURN W TO E FRI AFTN ALTHOUGH THIS MAY OCCUR
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

COULD SEE GUSTS 25-30KT WITH THE FROPA THIS EVE. THEN GUSTY NW
WINDS EXPECTED AFT 04Z AT NYC TERMINALS.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 03Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN VFR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 03Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN VFR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 02Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN VFR.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 02Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN VFR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 03Z WITH LIFR CONDS
IMPROVING TO IFR...THEN MVFR AFTER 06Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI
MORNING...THEN VFR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 04Z WITH LIFR CONDS
IMPROVING TO IFR...THEN MVFR AFTER 06Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI
MORNING...THEN VFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. N WINDS G15-20KT.
.SAT NIGHT-.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. SW WINDS 15G20KT...BECOMING WNW AT NIGHT.
.TUE...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST WATERS...AND
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY THIS EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN OVER THE WATERS. UPDATED
WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN
UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SRN WATERS WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN. POTENTIAL OF OCNL SCA GUSTS ON THE
SOUND IF THE FRONT MAKES IT THRU. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALSO LIKELY
TIL MIDNIGHT...THEN THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT DISSIPATES IT LATE. SCA
COND REMAIN ON THE OCEAN FRI...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
AT LEAST THRU FRI NGT.

SCA POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL AS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA IS TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SCA CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIME PERIODS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HALF INCH OR LESS OF PCPN IS EXPECTED INTO FRI MRNG. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ATTM.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANK FULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW
WILL INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS
UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ078>081-
     177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JMC/JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270128
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
928 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
FRI NIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MARITIMES SATURDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY AND MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER. FOR THE
NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BREAK IN THE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
REGION AND ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND RAISED
POPS 00Z TO 02Z. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE LINE MOVES INTO MORE STABLE
AIR AHEAD OF THE WARM FROM WHICH IS THROUGH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.

DENSE FOG INVOF THE FRONT...WITH THE NARRE SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG LI AND CT BEFORE THE CDFNT ACROSS UPSTATE NY PASSES LATE
TNGT. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY AS A RESULT. THERE IS ALREADY
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AREA...AND A COOLING BL THIS EVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR EXPANSION.

MAIN LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE GUSTY SLY WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR.

OTHERWISE...WAA SHWR AND TSTMS EXITING THE CWA TO THE NE. MAIN
BAND OF PCPN WITH THE CDFNT GETS HERE TNGT. MAINTAINED ISOLD TSTMS
WITH THE FROPA AS THERE WAS SOME LIGHTNING ACTION UPSTREAM TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA BUT THE APPROACHING UPR JET COULD SUSTAIN
LGT RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE MRNG. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING
LOW PRES OFFSHORE AS THE H5 SHTRWV APPROACHES. THE NAM HAD HINTED
AT THIS YESTERDAY...AND NOW THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE LONE SOLN WITH
THE 12Z SUITE...HAS LATCHED ON. THIS WOULD BRING PCPN IN LATE FRI
AFTN/EVE...THEN SPREADING WWD FRI NGT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PCPN
WOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD UPR TROF MOVES IN.
WITH NLY COMPONENT FLOW...THIS CHANGEOVER WOULD OCCUR EVEN DOWN TO
THE COASTS. HAVE INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR THIS EVENT...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF AND NAM SOLNS WOULD LEAVE THE AREA WITH BENIGN WX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DIAGNOSED BY SHARPER AND LESS
WAVELENGTH OF TROUGHS AND CORRESPONDING RIDGES. BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK...THERE IS A LONGER WAVELENGTH AND HENCE CLOSER TO A ZONAL TYPE
OF FLOW OCCURRING WHICH WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED.

THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA AND BECOMING MORE BROAD WITH
LESS WIND SPEED FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...ONE FEATURE TO FOCUS ON IS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE LOW DEPENDING
ON THE MODEL CHOSEN...IS APPROXIMATELY NEAR THE 40N AND 65W
COORDINATES. THE GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW...MOVING IT
FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND CMC ARE REMARKABLY SLOWER.

ONCE THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE...ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA...WILL
GAIN MORE INFLUENCE AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER LOW
MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BEHIND IT LEADING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES IN.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...OVERALL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE. THIS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED THIS WEEKEND WITH FORECAST
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS TO WATCH FOR PRECIPITATION. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION TO THE WEST OF THE OFFSHORE DEEPENING LOW. QUITE THE
UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH NAM AND ECMWF SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION WHILE CMC AND GFS SHOW A LIGHT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. CURRENT
FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT AN AVERAGE OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW AND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING...A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES PLACE AS
WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AS FAR AS HOW MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATES ON THE GROUND.

OTHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MORE IN THE NATURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT THURSDAY. THESE
ARE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT. AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CONDS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATION BETWEEN VFR AND IFR/LIFR EARLY THIS
EVE. AT 00Z...COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING ORANGE COUNTY AND
WESTERN NJ. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA MAY MIX UP THE CIGS
WITH VRB CONDS CONTINUING...ALTHOUGH EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDS TO
MOSTLY PREVAIL UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES...THEN MVFR CONDS SHOULD
RETURN ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY
EASTERN TERMINALS. OTHER UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER CIGS ARE ABOVE OR
BELOW 2K FT.  KGON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR OR LOWER UNTIL FRI
MORNING. VFR CONDS RETURN W TO E FRI AFTN ALTHOUGH THIS MAY OCCUR
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

COULD SEE GUSTS 25-30KT WITH THE FROPA THIS EVE. THEN GUSTY NW
WINDS EXPECTED AFT 04Z AT NYC TERMINALS.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 03Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN VFR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 03Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN VFR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 02Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN VFR.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 02Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN VFR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 03Z WITH LIFR CONDS
IMPROVING TO IFR...THEN MVFR AFTER 06Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI
MORNING...THEN VFR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 04Z WITH LIFR CONDS
IMPROVING TO IFR...THEN MVFR AFTER 06Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI
MORNING...THEN VFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. N WINDS G15-20KT.
.SAT NIGHT-.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. SW WINDS 15G20KT...BECOMING WNW AT NIGHT.
.TUE...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST WATERS...AND
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY THIS EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN OVER THE WATERS. UPDATED
WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN
UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SRN WATERS WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN. POTENTIAL OF OCNL SCA GUSTS ON THE
SOUND IF THE FRONT MAKES IT THRU. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALSO LIKELY
TIL MIDNIGHT...THEN THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT DISSIPATES IT LATE. SCA
COND REMAIN ON THE OCEAN FRI...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
AT LEAST THRU FRI NGT.

SCA POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL AS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA IS TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SCA CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIME PERIODS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HALF INCH OR LESS OF PCPN IS EXPECTED INTO FRI MRNG. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ATTM.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANK FULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW
WILL INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS
UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ078>081-
     177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JMC/JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270128
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
928 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
FRI NIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MARITIMES SATURDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY AND MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER. FOR THE
NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BREAK IN THE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
REGION AND ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND RAISED
POPS 00Z TO 02Z. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE LINE MOVES INTO MORE STABLE
AIR AHEAD OF THE WARM FROM WHICH IS THROUGH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.

DENSE FOG INVOF THE FRONT...WITH THE NARRE SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG LI AND CT BEFORE THE CDFNT ACROSS UPSTATE NY PASSES LATE
TNGT. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY AS A RESULT. THERE IS ALREADY
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AREA...AND A COOLING BL THIS EVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR EXPANSION.

MAIN LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE GUSTY SLY WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR.

OTHERWISE...WAA SHWR AND TSTMS EXITING THE CWA TO THE NE. MAIN
BAND OF PCPN WITH THE CDFNT GETS HERE TNGT. MAINTAINED ISOLD TSTMS
WITH THE FROPA AS THERE WAS SOME LIGHTNING ACTION UPSTREAM TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA BUT THE APPROACHING UPR JET COULD SUSTAIN
LGT RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE MRNG. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING
LOW PRES OFFSHORE AS THE H5 SHTRWV APPROACHES. THE NAM HAD HINTED
AT THIS YESTERDAY...AND NOW THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE LONE SOLN WITH
THE 12Z SUITE...HAS LATCHED ON. THIS WOULD BRING PCPN IN LATE FRI
AFTN/EVE...THEN SPREADING WWD FRI NGT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PCPN
WOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD UPR TROF MOVES IN.
WITH NLY COMPONENT FLOW...THIS CHANGEOVER WOULD OCCUR EVEN DOWN TO
THE COASTS. HAVE INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR THIS EVENT...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF AND NAM SOLNS WOULD LEAVE THE AREA WITH BENIGN WX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DIAGNOSED BY SHARPER AND LESS
WAVELENGTH OF TROUGHS AND CORRESPONDING RIDGES. BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK...THERE IS A LONGER WAVELENGTH AND HENCE CLOSER TO A ZONAL TYPE
OF FLOW OCCURRING WHICH WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED.

THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA AND BECOMING MORE BROAD WITH
LESS WIND SPEED FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...ONE FEATURE TO FOCUS ON IS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE LOW DEPENDING
ON THE MODEL CHOSEN...IS APPROXIMATELY NEAR THE 40N AND 65W
COORDINATES. THE GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW...MOVING IT
FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND CMC ARE REMARKABLY SLOWER.

ONCE THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE...ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA...WILL
GAIN MORE INFLUENCE AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER LOW
MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BEHIND IT LEADING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES IN.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...OVERALL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE. THIS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED THIS WEEKEND WITH FORECAST
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS TO WATCH FOR PRECIPITATION. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION TO THE WEST OF THE OFFSHORE DEEPENING LOW. QUITE THE
UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH NAM AND ECMWF SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION WHILE CMC AND GFS SHOW A LIGHT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. CURRENT
FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT AN AVERAGE OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW AND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING...A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES PLACE AS
WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AS FAR AS HOW MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATES ON THE GROUND.

OTHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MORE IN THE NATURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT THURSDAY. THESE
ARE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT. AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CONDS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATION BETWEEN VFR AND IFR/LIFR EARLY THIS
EVE. AT 00Z...COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING ORANGE COUNTY AND
WESTERN NJ. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA MAY MIX UP THE CIGS
WITH VRB CONDS CONTINUING...ALTHOUGH EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDS TO
MOSTLY PREVAIL UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES...THEN MVFR CONDS SHOULD
RETURN ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY
EASTERN TERMINALS. OTHER UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER CIGS ARE ABOVE OR
BELOW 2K FT.  KGON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR OR LOWER UNTIL FRI
MORNING. VFR CONDS RETURN W TO E FRI AFTN ALTHOUGH THIS MAY OCCUR
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

COULD SEE GUSTS 25-30KT WITH THE FROPA THIS EVE. THEN GUSTY NW
WINDS EXPECTED AFT 04Z AT NYC TERMINALS.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 03Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN VFR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 03Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN VFR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 02Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN VFR.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 02Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN VFR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 03Z WITH LIFR CONDS
IMPROVING TO IFR...THEN MVFR AFTER 06Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI
MORNING...THEN VFR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 04Z WITH LIFR CONDS
IMPROVING TO IFR...THEN MVFR AFTER 06Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI
MORNING...THEN VFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. N WINDS G15-20KT.
.SAT NIGHT-.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. SW WINDS 15G20KT...BECOMING WNW AT NIGHT.
.TUE...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST WATERS...AND
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY THIS EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN OVER THE WATERS. UPDATED
WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN
UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SRN WATERS WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN. POTENTIAL OF OCNL SCA GUSTS ON THE
SOUND IF THE FRONT MAKES IT THRU. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALSO LIKELY
TIL MIDNIGHT...THEN THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT DISSIPATES IT LATE. SCA
COND REMAIN ON THE OCEAN FRI...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
AT LEAST THRU FRI NGT.

SCA POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL AS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA IS TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SCA CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIME PERIODS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HALF INCH OR LESS OF PCPN IS EXPECTED INTO FRI MRNG. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ATTM.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANK FULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW
WILL INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS
UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ078>081-
     177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JMC/JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM





000
FXUS61 KOKX 262247
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
647 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
FRI NIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MARITIMES SATURDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY AND MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER. FOR THE
NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BREAK IN THE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
REGION AND ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND RAISED
POPS 00Z TO 02Z. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE LINE MOVES INTO MORE STABLE
AIR AHEAD OF THE WARM FROM WHICH IS THROUGH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.

DENSE FOG INVOF THE FRONT...WITH THE NARRE SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG LI AND CT BEFORE THE CDFNT ACROSS UPSTATE NY PASSES LATE
TNGT. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY AS A RESULT. THERE IS ALREADY
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AREA...AND A COOLING BL THIS EVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR EXPANSION.

MAIN LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE GUSTY SLY WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR.

OTHERWISE...WAA SHWR AND TSTMS EXITING THE CWA TO THE NE. MAIN
BAND OF PCPN WITH THE CDFNT GETS HERE TNGT. MAINTAINED ISOLD TSTMS
WITH THE FROPA AS THERE WAS SOME LIGHTNING ACTION UPSTREAM TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA BUT THE APPROACHING UPR JET COULD SUSTAIN
LGT RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE MRNG. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING
LOW PRES OFFSHORE AS THE H5 SHTRWV APPROACHES. THE NAM HAD HINTED
AT THIS YESTERDAY...AND NOW THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE LONE SOLN WITH
THE 12Z SUITE...HAS LATCHED ON. THIS WOULD BRING PCPN IN LATE FRI
AFTN/EVE...THEN SPREADING WWD FRI NGT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PCPN
WOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD UPR TROF MOVES IN.
WITH NLY COMPONENT FLOW...THIS CHANGEOVER WOULD OCCUR EVEN DOWN TO
THE COASTS. HAVE INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR THIS EVENT...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF AND NAM SOLNS WOULD LEAVE THE AREA WITH BENIGN WX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DIAGNOSED BY SHARPER AND LESS
WAVELENGTH OF TROUGHS AND CORRESPONDING RIDGES. BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK...THERE IS A LONGER WAVELENGTH AND HENCE CLOSER TO A ZONAL TYPE
OF FLOW OCCURRING WHICH WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED.

THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA AND BECOMING MORE BROAD WITH
LESS WIND SPEED FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...ONE FEATURE TO FOCUS ON IS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE LOW DEPENDING
ON THE MODEL CHOSEN...IS APPROXIMATELY NEAR THE 40N AND 65W
COORDINATES. THE GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW...MOVING IT
FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND CMC ARE REMARKABLY SLOWER.

ONCE THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE...ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA...WILL
GAIN MORE INFLUENCE AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER LOW
MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BEHIND IT LEADING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES IN.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...OVERALL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE. THIS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED THIS WEEKEND WITH FORECAST
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS TO WATCH FOR PRECIPITATION. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION TO THE WEST OF THE OFFSHORE DEEPENING LOW. QUITE THE
UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH NAM AND ECMWF SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION WHILE CMC AND GFS SHOW A LIGHT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. CURRENT
FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT AN AVERAGE OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW AND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING...A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES PLACE AS
WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AS FAR AS HOW MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATES ON THE GROUND.

OTHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MORE IN THE NATURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT THURSDAY. THESE
ARE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT.

IFR/LIFR CONDS AND LLWS ARE AT MOST TERMINALS...BUT KJFK/KLGA/KBDR
HAVE BRIEFLY GONE MVFR. KJFK/KISP ARE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND GUSTING
TO 25-30 IN S FLOW...AND KLGA MAY FOLLOW SUIT TOWARD EVENING.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING A RETURN TO IFR/LIFR CONDS TO
ALL TERMINALS BEFORE COLD FROPA THIS EVENING...BY 03Z AT THE NYC
METRO TERMINALS AND 04Z FARTHER EAST. SFC WINDS SHOULD VEER
SW AND DIMINISH FOR A COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE FROPA...THEN SHIFT NNW
AND DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
FLIGHT CAT AFTER FROPA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...ATTM DECIDED
TO SIDE WITH MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS
OF VFR.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 02Z-03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 02Z-03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTERNOON...BECOMING VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. N WINDS G15-20KT.
.SAT NIGHT-.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. SW WINDS 15G20KT...BECOMING WNW AT NIGHT.
.TUE...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST WATERS...AND
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY THIS EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN OVER THE WATERS. UPDATED
WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN
UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SRN WATERS WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN. POTENTIAL OF OCNL SCA GUSTS ON THE
SOUND IF THE FRONT MAKES IT THRU. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALSO LIKELY
TIL MIDNIGHT...THEN THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT DISSIPATES IT LATE. SCA
COND REMAIN ON THE OCEAN FRI...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
AT LEAST THRU FRI NGT.

SCA POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL AS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA IS TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SCA CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIME PERIODS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HALF INCH OR LESS OF PCPN IS EXPECTED INTO FRI MRNG. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ATTM.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANK FULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW
WILL INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS
UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ078>081-
     177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JMC/JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM





000
FXUS61 KOKX 262247
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
647 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
FRI NIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MARITIMES SATURDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY AND MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER. FOR THE
NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BREAK IN THE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
REGION AND ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND RAISED
POPS 00Z TO 02Z. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE LINE MOVES INTO MORE STABLE
AIR AHEAD OF THE WARM FROM WHICH IS THROUGH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.

DENSE FOG INVOF THE FRONT...WITH THE NARRE SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG LI AND CT BEFORE THE CDFNT ACROSS UPSTATE NY PASSES LATE
TNGT. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY AS A RESULT. THERE IS ALREADY
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AREA...AND A COOLING BL THIS EVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR EXPANSION.

MAIN LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE GUSTY SLY WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR.

OTHERWISE...WAA SHWR AND TSTMS EXITING THE CWA TO THE NE. MAIN
BAND OF PCPN WITH THE CDFNT GETS HERE TNGT. MAINTAINED ISOLD TSTMS
WITH THE FROPA AS THERE WAS SOME LIGHTNING ACTION UPSTREAM TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA BUT THE APPROACHING UPR JET COULD SUSTAIN
LGT RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE MRNG. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING
LOW PRES OFFSHORE AS THE H5 SHTRWV APPROACHES. THE NAM HAD HINTED
AT THIS YESTERDAY...AND NOW THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE LONE SOLN WITH
THE 12Z SUITE...HAS LATCHED ON. THIS WOULD BRING PCPN IN LATE FRI
AFTN/EVE...THEN SPREADING WWD FRI NGT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PCPN
WOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD UPR TROF MOVES IN.
WITH NLY COMPONENT FLOW...THIS CHANGEOVER WOULD OCCUR EVEN DOWN TO
THE COASTS. HAVE INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR THIS EVENT...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF AND NAM SOLNS WOULD LEAVE THE AREA WITH BENIGN WX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DIAGNOSED BY SHARPER AND LESS
WAVELENGTH OF TROUGHS AND CORRESPONDING RIDGES. BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK...THERE IS A LONGER WAVELENGTH AND HENCE CLOSER TO A ZONAL TYPE
OF FLOW OCCURRING WHICH WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED.

THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA AND BECOMING MORE BROAD WITH
LESS WIND SPEED FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...ONE FEATURE TO FOCUS ON IS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE LOW DEPENDING
ON THE MODEL CHOSEN...IS APPROXIMATELY NEAR THE 40N AND 65W
COORDINATES. THE GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW...MOVING IT
FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND CMC ARE REMARKABLY SLOWER.

ONCE THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE...ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA...WILL
GAIN MORE INFLUENCE AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER LOW
MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BEHIND IT LEADING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES IN.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...OVERALL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE. THIS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED THIS WEEKEND WITH FORECAST
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS TO WATCH FOR PRECIPITATION. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION TO THE WEST OF THE OFFSHORE DEEPENING LOW. QUITE THE
UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH NAM AND ECMWF SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION WHILE CMC AND GFS SHOW A LIGHT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. CURRENT
FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT AN AVERAGE OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW AND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING...A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES PLACE AS
WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AS FAR AS HOW MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATES ON THE GROUND.

OTHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MORE IN THE NATURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT THURSDAY. THESE
ARE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT.

IFR/LIFR CONDS AND LLWS ARE AT MOST TERMINALS...BUT KJFK/KLGA/KBDR
HAVE BRIEFLY GONE MVFR. KJFK/KISP ARE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND GUSTING
TO 25-30 IN S FLOW...AND KLGA MAY FOLLOW SUIT TOWARD EVENING.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING A RETURN TO IFR/LIFR CONDS TO
ALL TERMINALS BEFORE COLD FROPA THIS EVENING...BY 03Z AT THE NYC
METRO TERMINALS AND 04Z FARTHER EAST. SFC WINDS SHOULD VEER
SW AND DIMINISH FOR A COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE FROPA...THEN SHIFT NNW
AND DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
FLIGHT CAT AFTER FROPA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...ATTM DECIDED
TO SIDE WITH MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS
OF VFR.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 02Z-03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 02Z-03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTERNOON...BECOMING VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. N WINDS G15-20KT.
.SAT NIGHT-.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. SW WINDS 15G20KT...BECOMING WNW AT NIGHT.
.TUE...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST WATERS...AND
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY THIS EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN OVER THE WATERS. UPDATED
WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN
UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SRN WATERS WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN. POTENTIAL OF OCNL SCA GUSTS ON THE
SOUND IF THE FRONT MAKES IT THRU. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALSO LIKELY
TIL MIDNIGHT...THEN THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT DISSIPATES IT LATE. SCA
COND REMAIN ON THE OCEAN FRI...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
AT LEAST THRU FRI NGT.

SCA POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL AS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA IS TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SCA CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIME PERIODS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HALF INCH OR LESS OF PCPN IS EXPECTED INTO FRI MRNG. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ATTM.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANK FULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW
WILL INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS
UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ078>081-
     177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JMC/JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 262049
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
449 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
FRI NIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MARITIMES SATURDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY AND MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER. FOR THE
NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE WARM FRONT HAS MADE IT INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA. DENSE
FOG INVOF THE FRONT...WITH THE NARRE SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG LI AND CT BEFORE THE CDFNT ACROSS UPSTATE NY PASSES LATE TNGT.
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY AS A RESULT. THERE IS ALREADY PATCHY
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AREA...AND A COOLING BL THIS EVE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR EXPANSION.

MAIN LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE GUSTY SLY WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR.

OTHERWISE...WAA SHWR AND TSTMS EXITING THE CWA TO THE NE. MAIN
BAND OF PCPN WITH THE CDFNT GETS HERE TNGT. MAINTAINED ISOLD TSTMS
WITH THE FROPA AS THERE WAS SOME LIGHTNING ACTION UPSTREAM TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA BUT THE APPROACHING UPR JET COULD SUSTAIN
LGT RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE MRNG. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING
LOW PRES OFFSHORE AS THE H5 SHTRWV APPROACHES. THE NAM HAD HINTED
AT THIS YESTERDAY...AND NOW THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE LONE SOLN WITH
THE 12Z SUITE...HAS LATCHED ON. THIS WOULD BRING PCPN IN LATE FRI
AFTN/EVE...THEN SPREADING WWD FRI NGT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PCPN
WOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD UPR TROF MOVES IN.
WITH NLY COMPONENT FLOW...THIS CHANGEOVER WOULD OCCUR EVEN DOWN TO
THE COASTS. HAVE INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR THIS EVENT...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF AND NAM SOLNS WOULD LEAVE THE AREA WITH BENIGN WX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DIAGNOSED BY SHARPER AND LESS
WAVELENGTH OF TROUGHS AND CORRESPONDING RIDGES. BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK...THERE IS A LONGER WAVELENGTH AND HENCE CLOSER TO A ZONAL TYPE
OF FLOW OCCURRING WHICH WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED.

THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA AND BECOMING MORE BROAD WITH
LESS WIND SPEED FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...ONE FEATURE TO FOCUS ON IS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT. THE CENTER OF LOW DEPENDING ON THE MODEL
CHOSEN...IS APPROXIMATELY NEAR THE 40N AND 65W COORDINATES. THE GFS
IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW...MOVING IS FASTER TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE THE ECMWF...NAM...AND
CMC ARE REMARKABLY SLOWER.

ONCE THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE...ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA...WILL
GAIN MORE INFLUENCE AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER LOW
MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURN BEHIND IT LEADING INTO
EARLY THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...OVERALL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE. THIS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED THIS WEEKEND WITH FORECAST
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS TO WATCH FOR PRECIPITATION. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION TO THE WEST OF THE OFFSHORE DEEPENING LOW. QUITE THE
UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH NAM AND ECMWF SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION WHILE CMC AND GFS SHOW A LIGHT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. CURRENT
FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT AN AVERAGE OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW AND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING...A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES PLACE AS
WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AS FAR AS HOW MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATES.

OTHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MORE IN THE NATURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT THURSDAY. THESE
ARE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT.

IFR/LIFR CONDS AND LLWS ARE AT MOST TERMINALS...BUT KJFK/KLGA/KBDR
HAVE BRIEFLY GONE MVFR. KJFK/KISP ARE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND GUSTING
TO 25-30 IN S FLOW...AND KLGA MAY FOLLOW SUIT TOWARD EVENING.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING A RETURN TO IFR/LIFR CONDS TO
ALL TERMINALS BEFORE COLD FROPA THIS EVENING...BY 03Z AT THE NYC
METRO TERMINALS AND 04Z FARTHER EAST. SFC WINDS SHOULD VEER
SW AND DIMINISH FOR A COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE FROPA...THEN SHIFT NNW
AND DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
FLIGHT CAT AFTER FROPA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...ATTM DECIDED
TO SIDE WITH MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS
OF VFR.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 02Z-03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 02Z-03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTERNOON...BECOMING VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. N WINDS G15-20KT.
.SAT NIGHT-.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. SW WINDS 15G20KT...BECOMING WNW AT NIGHT.
.TUE...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SRN WATERS WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN. POTENTIAL OF OCNL SCA GUSTS ON THE
SOUND IF THE FRONT MAKES IT THRU. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALSO LIKELY
TIL MIDNIGHT...THEN THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT DISSIPATES IT LATE. SCA
COND REMAIN ON THE OCEAN FRI...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
AT LEAST THRU FRI NGT.

SCA POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL AS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA IS TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SCA CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HALF IN OR LESS OF PCPN IS EXPECTED INTO FRI MRNG. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ATTM.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANK FULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW
WILL INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS
UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ078>081-
     177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM





000
FXUS61 KOKX 262049 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
449 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
FRI NIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MARITIMES SATURDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY AND MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER. FOR THE
NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE WARM FRONT HAS MADE IT INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA. DENSE
FOG INVOF THE FRONT...WITH THE NARRE SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG LI AND CT BEFORE THE CDFNT ACROSS UPSTATE NY PASSES LATE TNGT.
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY AS A RESULT. THERE IS ALREADY PATCHY
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AREA...AND A COOLING BL THIS EVE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR EXPANSION.

MAIN LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE GUSTY SLY WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR.

OTHERWISE...WAA SHWR AND TSTMS EXITING THE CWA TO THE NE. MAIN
BAND OF PCPN WITH THE CDFNT GETS HERE TNGT. MAINTAINED ISOLD TSTMS
WITH THE FROPA AS THERE WAS SOME LIGHTNING ACTION UPSTREAM TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA BUT THE APPROACHING UPR JET COULD SUSTAIN
LGT RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE MRNG. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING
LOW PRES OFFSHORE AS THE H5 SHTRWV APPROACHES. THE NAM HAD HINTED
AT THIS YESTERDAY...AND NOW THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE LONE SOLN WITH
THE 12Z SUITE...HAS LATCHED ON. THIS WOULD BRING PCPN IN LATE FRI
AFTN/EVE...THEN SPREADING WWD FRI NGT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PCPN
WOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD UPR TROF MOVES IN.
WITH NLY COMPONENT FLOW...THIS CHANGEOVER WOULD OCCUR EVEN DOWN TO
THE COASTS. HAVE INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR THIS EVENT...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF AND NAM SOLNS WOULD LEAVE THE AREA WITH BENIGN WX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DIAGNOSED BY SHARPER AND LESS
WAVELENGTH OF TROUGHS AND CORRESPONDING RIDGES. BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK...THERE IS A LONGER WAVELENGTH AND HENCE CLOSER TO A ZONAL TYPE
OF FLOW OCCURRING WHICH WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED.

THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA AND BECOMING MORE BROAD WITH
LESS WIND SPEED FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...ONE FEATURE TO FOCUS ON IS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE LOW DEPENDING
ON THE MODEL CHOSEN...IS APPROXIMATELY NEAR THE 40N AND 65W
COORDINATES. THE GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW...MOVING IT
FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND CMC ARE REMARKABLY SLOWER.

ONCE THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE...ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA...WILL
GAIN MORE INFLUENCE AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER LOW
MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BEHIND IT LEADING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES IN.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...OVERALL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE. THIS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED THIS WEEKEND WITH FORECAST
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS TO WATCH FOR PRECIPITATION. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION TO THE WEST OF THE OFFSHORE DEEPENING LOW. QUITE THE
UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH NAM AND ECMWF SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION WHILE CMC AND GFS SHOW A LIGHT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. CURRENT
FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT AN AVERAGE OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW AND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING...A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES PLACE AS
WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AS FAR AS HOW MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATES ON THE GROUND.

OTHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MORE IN THE NATURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT THURSDAY. THESE
ARE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT.

IFR/LIFR CONDS AND LLWS ARE AT MOST TERMINALS...BUT KJFK/KLGA/KBDR
HAVE BRIEFLY GONE MVFR. KJFK/KISP ARE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND GUSTING
TO 25-30 IN S FLOW...AND KLGA MAY FOLLOW SUIT TOWARD EVENING.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING A RETURN TO IFR/LIFR CONDS TO
ALL TERMINALS BEFORE COLD FROPA THIS EVENING...BY 03Z AT THE NYC
METRO TERMINALS AND 04Z FARTHER EAST. SFC WINDS SHOULD VEER
SW AND DIMINISH FOR A COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE FROPA...THEN SHIFT NNW
AND DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
FLIGHT CAT AFTER FROPA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...ATTM DECIDED
TO SIDE WITH MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS
OF VFR.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 02Z-03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 02Z-03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTERNOON...BECOMING VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. N WINDS G15-20KT.
.SAT NIGHT-.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. SW WINDS 15G20KT...BECOMING WNW AT NIGHT.
.TUE...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SRN WATERS WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN. POTENTIAL OF OCNL SCA GUSTS ON THE
SOUND IF THE FRONT MAKES IT THRU. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALSO LIKELY
TIL MIDNIGHT...THEN THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT DISSIPATES IT LATE. SCA
COND REMAIN ON THE OCEAN FRI...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
AT LEAST THRU FRI NGT.

SCA POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL AS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA IS TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SCA CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIME PERIODS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HALF IN OR LESS OF PCPN IS EXPECTED INTO FRI MRNG. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ATTM.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANK FULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW
WILL INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS
UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ078>081-
     177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 262049 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
449 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
FRI NIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MARITIMES SATURDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY AND MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER. FOR THE
NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE WARM FRONT HAS MADE IT INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA. DENSE
FOG INVOF THE FRONT...WITH THE NARRE SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG LI AND CT BEFORE THE CDFNT ACROSS UPSTATE NY PASSES LATE TNGT.
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY AS A RESULT. THERE IS ALREADY PATCHY
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AREA...AND A COOLING BL THIS EVE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR EXPANSION.

MAIN LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE GUSTY SLY WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR.

OTHERWISE...WAA SHWR AND TSTMS EXITING THE CWA TO THE NE. MAIN
BAND OF PCPN WITH THE CDFNT GETS HERE TNGT. MAINTAINED ISOLD TSTMS
WITH THE FROPA AS THERE WAS SOME LIGHTNING ACTION UPSTREAM TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA BUT THE APPROACHING UPR JET COULD SUSTAIN
LGT RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE MRNG. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING
LOW PRES OFFSHORE AS THE H5 SHTRWV APPROACHES. THE NAM HAD HINTED
AT THIS YESTERDAY...AND NOW THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE LONE SOLN WITH
THE 12Z SUITE...HAS LATCHED ON. THIS WOULD BRING PCPN IN LATE FRI
AFTN/EVE...THEN SPREADING WWD FRI NGT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PCPN
WOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD UPR TROF MOVES IN.
WITH NLY COMPONENT FLOW...THIS CHANGEOVER WOULD OCCUR EVEN DOWN TO
THE COASTS. HAVE INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR THIS EVENT...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF AND NAM SOLNS WOULD LEAVE THE AREA WITH BENIGN WX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DIAGNOSED BY SHARPER AND LESS
WAVELENGTH OF TROUGHS AND CORRESPONDING RIDGES. BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK...THERE IS A LONGER WAVELENGTH AND HENCE CLOSER TO A ZONAL TYPE
OF FLOW OCCURRING WHICH WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED.

THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA AND BECOMING MORE BROAD WITH
LESS WIND SPEED FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...ONE FEATURE TO FOCUS ON IS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE LOW DEPENDING
ON THE MODEL CHOSEN...IS APPROXIMATELY NEAR THE 40N AND 65W
COORDINATES. THE GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW...MOVING IT
FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND CMC ARE REMARKABLY SLOWER.

ONCE THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE...ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA...WILL
GAIN MORE INFLUENCE AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER LOW
MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BEHIND IT LEADING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES IN.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...OVERALL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE. THIS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED THIS WEEKEND WITH FORECAST
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS TO WATCH FOR PRECIPITATION. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION TO THE WEST OF THE OFFSHORE DEEPENING LOW. QUITE THE
UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH NAM AND ECMWF SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION WHILE CMC AND GFS SHOW A LIGHT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. CURRENT
FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT AN AVERAGE OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW AND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING...A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES PLACE AS
WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AS FAR AS HOW MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATES ON THE GROUND.

OTHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MORE IN THE NATURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT THURSDAY. THESE
ARE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT.

IFR/LIFR CONDS AND LLWS ARE AT MOST TERMINALS...BUT KJFK/KLGA/KBDR
HAVE BRIEFLY GONE MVFR. KJFK/KISP ARE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND GUSTING
TO 25-30 IN S FLOW...AND KLGA MAY FOLLOW SUIT TOWARD EVENING.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING A RETURN TO IFR/LIFR CONDS TO
ALL TERMINALS BEFORE COLD FROPA THIS EVENING...BY 03Z AT THE NYC
METRO TERMINALS AND 04Z FARTHER EAST. SFC WINDS SHOULD VEER
SW AND DIMINISH FOR A COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE FROPA...THEN SHIFT NNW
AND DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
FLIGHT CAT AFTER FROPA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...ATTM DECIDED
TO SIDE WITH MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS
OF VFR.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 02Z-03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 02Z-03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTERNOON...BECOMING VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. N WINDS G15-20KT.
.SAT NIGHT-.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. SW WINDS 15G20KT...BECOMING WNW AT NIGHT.
.TUE...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SRN WATERS WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN. POTENTIAL OF OCNL SCA GUSTS ON THE
SOUND IF THE FRONT MAKES IT THRU. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALSO LIKELY
TIL MIDNIGHT...THEN THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT DISSIPATES IT LATE. SCA
COND REMAIN ON THE OCEAN FRI...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
AT LEAST THRU FRI NGT.

SCA POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL AS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA IS TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SCA CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIME PERIODS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HALF IN OR LESS OF PCPN IS EXPECTED INTO FRI MRNG. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ATTM.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANK FULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW
WILL INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS
UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ078>081-
     177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM





000
FXUS61 KOKX 262049
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
449 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
FRI NIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MARITIMES SATURDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY AND MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER. FOR THE
NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE WARM FRONT HAS MADE IT INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA. DENSE
FOG INVOF THE FRONT...WITH THE NARRE SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG LI AND CT BEFORE THE CDFNT ACROSS UPSTATE NY PASSES LATE TNGT.
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY AS A RESULT. THERE IS ALREADY PATCHY
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AREA...AND A COOLING BL THIS EVE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR EXPANSION.

MAIN LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE GUSTY SLY WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR.

OTHERWISE...WAA SHWR AND TSTMS EXITING THE CWA TO THE NE. MAIN
BAND OF PCPN WITH THE CDFNT GETS HERE TNGT. MAINTAINED ISOLD TSTMS
WITH THE FROPA AS THERE WAS SOME LIGHTNING ACTION UPSTREAM TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA BUT THE APPROACHING UPR JET COULD SUSTAIN
LGT RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE MRNG. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING
LOW PRES OFFSHORE AS THE H5 SHTRWV APPROACHES. THE NAM HAD HINTED
AT THIS YESTERDAY...AND NOW THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE LONE SOLN WITH
THE 12Z SUITE...HAS LATCHED ON. THIS WOULD BRING PCPN IN LATE FRI
AFTN/EVE...THEN SPREADING WWD FRI NGT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PCPN
WOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD UPR TROF MOVES IN.
WITH NLY COMPONENT FLOW...THIS CHANGEOVER WOULD OCCUR EVEN DOWN TO
THE COASTS. HAVE INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR THIS EVENT...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF AND NAM SOLNS WOULD LEAVE THE AREA WITH BENIGN WX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DIAGNOSED BY SHARPER AND LESS
WAVELENGTH OF TROUGHS AND CORRESPONDING RIDGES. BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK...THERE IS A LONGER WAVELENGTH AND HENCE CLOSER TO A ZONAL TYPE
OF FLOW OCCURRING WHICH WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED.

THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA AND BECOMING MORE BROAD WITH
LESS WIND SPEED FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...ONE FEATURE TO FOCUS ON IS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT. THE CENTER OF LOW DEPENDING ON THE MODEL
CHOSEN...IS APPROXIMATELY NEAR THE 40N AND 65W COORDINATES. THE GFS
IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW...MOVING IS FASTER TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE THE ECMWF...NAM...AND
CMC ARE REMARKABLY SLOWER.

ONCE THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE...ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA...WILL
GAIN MORE INFLUENCE AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER LOW
MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURN BEHIND IT LEADING INTO
EARLY THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...OVERALL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE. THIS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED THIS WEEKEND WITH FORECAST
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS TO WATCH FOR PRECIPITATION. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION TO THE WEST OF THE OFFSHORE DEEPENING LOW. QUITE THE
UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH NAM AND ECMWF SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION WHILE CMC AND GFS SHOW A LIGHT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. CURRENT
FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT AN AVERAGE OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW AND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING...A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES PLACE AS
WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AS FAR AS HOW MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATES.

OTHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MORE IN THE NATURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT THURSDAY. THESE
ARE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT.

IFR/LIFR CONDS AND LLWS ARE AT MOST TERMINALS...BUT KJFK/KLGA/KBDR
HAVE BRIEFLY GONE MVFR. KJFK/KISP ARE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND GUSTING
TO 25-30 IN S FLOW...AND KLGA MAY FOLLOW SUIT TOWARD EVENING.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING A RETURN TO IFR/LIFR CONDS TO
ALL TERMINALS BEFORE COLD FROPA THIS EVENING...BY 03Z AT THE NYC
METRO TERMINALS AND 04Z FARTHER EAST. SFC WINDS SHOULD VEER
SW AND DIMINISH FOR A COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE FROPA...THEN SHIFT NNW
AND DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
FLIGHT CAT AFTER FROPA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...ATTM DECIDED
TO SIDE WITH MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS
OF VFR.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 02Z-03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 02Z-03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTERNOON...BECOMING VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. N WINDS G15-20KT.
.SAT NIGHT-.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. SW WINDS 15G20KT...BECOMING WNW AT NIGHT.
.TUE...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SRN WATERS WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN. POTENTIAL OF OCNL SCA GUSTS ON THE
SOUND IF THE FRONT MAKES IT THRU. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALSO LIKELY
TIL MIDNIGHT...THEN THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT DISSIPATES IT LATE. SCA
COND REMAIN ON THE OCEAN FRI...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
AT LEAST THRU FRI NGT.

SCA POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL AS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA IS TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SCA CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HALF IN OR LESS OF PCPN IS EXPECTED INTO FRI MRNG. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ATTM.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANK FULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW
WILL INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS
UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ078>081-
     177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 262012
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
412 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
FRI NIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MARITIMES SATURDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY AND MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER. FOR THE
NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE WARM FRONT HAS MADE IT INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA. DENSE
FOG INVOF THE FRONT...WITH THE NARRE SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG LI AND CT BEFORE THE CDFNT ACROSS UPSTATE NY PASSES LATE TNGT.
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY AS A RESULT. THERE IS ALREADY PATCHY
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AREA...AND A COOLING BL THIS EVE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR EXPANSION.

MAIN LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE GUSTY SLY WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR.

OTHERWISE...WAA SHWR AND TSTMS EXITING THE CWA TO THE NE. MAIN
BAND OF PCPN WITH THE CDFNT GETS HERE TNGT. MAINTAINED ISOLD TSTMS
WITH THE FROPA AS THERE WAS SOME LIGHTNING ACTION UPSTREAM TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA BUT THE APPROACHING UPR JET COULD SUSTAIN
LGT RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE MRNG. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING
LOW PRES OFFSHORE AS THE H5 SHTRWV APPROACHES. THE NAM HAD HINTED
AT THIS YESTERDAY...AND NOW THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE LONE SOLN WITH
THE 12Z SUITE...HAS LATCHED ON. THIS WOULD BRING PCPN IN LATE FRI
AFTN/EVE...THEN SPREADING WWD FRI NGT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PCPN
WOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD UPR TROF MOVES IN.
WITH NLY COMPONENT FLOW...THIS CHANGEOVER WOULD OCCUR EVEN DOWN TO
THE COASTS. HAVE INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR THIS EVENT...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF AND NAM SOLNS WOULD LEAVE THE AREA WITH BENIGN WX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DIAGNOSED BY SHARPER AND LESS
WAVELENGTH OF TROUGHS AND CORRESPONDING RIDGES. BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK...THERE IS A LONGER WAVELENGTH AND HENCE CLOSER TO A ZONAL TYPE
OF FLOW OCCURRING WHICH WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED.

THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA AND BECOMING MORE BROAD WITH
LESS WIND SPEED FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...ONE FEATURE TO FOCUS ON IS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT. THE CENTER OF LOW DEPENDING ON THE MODEL
CHOSEN...IS APPROXIMATELY NEAR THE 40N AND 65W COORDINATES. THE GFS
IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW...MOVING IS FASTER TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE THE ECMWF...NAM...AND
CMC ARE REMARKABLY SLOWER.

ONCE THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE...ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA...WILL
GAIN MORE INFLUENCE AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER LOW
MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURN BEHIND IT LEADING INTO
EARLY THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...OVERALL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE. THIS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED THIS WEEKEND WITH FORECAST
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS TO WATCH FOR PRECIPITATION. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION TO THE WEST OF THE OFFSHORE DEEPENING LOW. QUITE THE
UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH NAM AND ECMWF SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION WHILE CMC AND GFS SHOW A LIGHT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. CURRENT
FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT AN AVERAGE OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW AND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING...A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES PLACE AS
WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AS FAR AS HOW MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATES.

OTHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MORE IN THE NATURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT THURSDAY. THESE
ARE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT.

WARM FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED INTO NYC METRO AND LONG
ISLAND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO MAKE MUCH MORE NORTHWARD
PROGRESS. SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT KJFK/KISP WITHIN THE NEXT HR.
OTHERWISE...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVING OVER COLD OCEAN WATERS
SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
COLD FROPA...WITH LLWS AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PASSES OVERHEAD.

COLD FROPA SHOULD OCCUR AT NYC METRO FROM 02-03Z...AND FARTHER
EAST AT 03Z-04Z...WITH S FLOW SHIFTING NW-NNW. FOLLOWED GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT NYC METRO AFTER
FROPA...BUT THIS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO QUICK. HELD ONTO IFR/LIFR
CONDS AT THE CT/LONG ISLAND TERMINALS FOR A FEW HRS AFTER FROPA.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO FLIGHT CAT LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING...ATTM DECIDED TO SIDE WITH MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE BUT
THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF VFR.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 02Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD PERSIST
UNTIL 04Z-05Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI AFTERNOON...BECOMING VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. N WINDS G15-20KT.
.SAT NIGHT-.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. SW WINDS 15G20KT...BECOMING WNW AT NIGHT.
.TUE...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SRN WATERS WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN. POTENTIAL OF OCNL SCA GUSTS ON THE
SOUND IF THE FRONT MAKES IT THRU. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALSO LIKELY
TIL MIDNIGHT...THEN THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT DISSIPATES IT LATE. SCA
COND REMAIN ON THE OCEAN FRI...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
AT LEAST THRU FRI NGT.

SCA POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL AS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA IS TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SCA CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HALF IN OR LESS OF PCPN IS EXPECTED INTO FRI MRNG. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ATTM.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANK FULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW
WILL INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS
UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ078>081-
     177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 262012
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
412 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
FRI NIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MARITIMES SATURDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY AND MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER. FOR THE
NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE WARM FRONT HAS MADE IT INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA. DENSE
FOG INVOF THE FRONT...WITH THE NARRE SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG LI AND CT BEFORE THE CDFNT ACROSS UPSTATE NY PASSES LATE TNGT.
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY AS A RESULT. THERE IS ALREADY PATCHY
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AREA...AND A COOLING BL THIS EVE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR EXPANSION.

MAIN LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE GUSTY SLY WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR.

OTHERWISE...WAA SHWR AND TSTMS EXITING THE CWA TO THE NE. MAIN
BAND OF PCPN WITH THE CDFNT GETS HERE TNGT. MAINTAINED ISOLD TSTMS
WITH THE FROPA AS THERE WAS SOME LIGHTNING ACTION UPSTREAM TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA BUT THE APPROACHING UPR JET COULD SUSTAIN
LGT RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE MRNG. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING
LOW PRES OFFSHORE AS THE H5 SHTRWV APPROACHES. THE NAM HAD HINTED
AT THIS YESTERDAY...AND NOW THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE LONE SOLN WITH
THE 12Z SUITE...HAS LATCHED ON. THIS WOULD BRING PCPN IN LATE FRI
AFTN/EVE...THEN SPREADING WWD FRI NGT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PCPN
WOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD UPR TROF MOVES IN.
WITH NLY COMPONENT FLOW...THIS CHANGEOVER WOULD OCCUR EVEN DOWN TO
THE COASTS. HAVE INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR THIS EVENT...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF AND NAM SOLNS WOULD LEAVE THE AREA WITH BENIGN WX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DIAGNOSED BY SHARPER AND LESS
WAVELENGTH OF TROUGHS AND CORRESPONDING RIDGES. BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK...THERE IS A LONGER WAVELENGTH AND HENCE CLOSER TO A ZONAL TYPE
OF FLOW OCCURRING WHICH WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED.

THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA AND BECOMING MORE BROAD WITH
LESS WIND SPEED FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...ONE FEATURE TO FOCUS ON IS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT. THE CENTER OF LOW DEPENDING ON THE MODEL
CHOSEN...IS APPROXIMATELY NEAR THE 40N AND 65W COORDINATES. THE GFS
IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW...MOVING IS FASTER TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE THE ECMWF...NAM...AND
CMC ARE REMARKABLY SLOWER.

ONCE THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE...ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA...WILL
GAIN MORE INFLUENCE AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER LOW
MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURN BEHIND IT LEADING INTO
EARLY THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...OVERALL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE. THIS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED THIS WEEKEND WITH FORECAST
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS TO WATCH FOR PRECIPITATION. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION TO THE WEST OF THE OFFSHORE DEEPENING LOW. QUITE THE
UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH NAM AND ECMWF SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION WHILE CMC AND GFS SHOW A LIGHT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. CURRENT
FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT AN AVERAGE OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW AND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING...A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES PLACE AS
WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AS FAR AS HOW MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATES.

OTHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MORE IN THE NATURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT THURSDAY. THESE
ARE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT.

WARM FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED INTO NYC METRO AND LONG
ISLAND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO MAKE MUCH MORE NORTHWARD
PROGRESS. SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT KJFK/KISP WITHIN THE NEXT HR.
OTHERWISE...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVING OVER COLD OCEAN WATERS
SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
COLD FROPA...WITH LLWS AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PASSES OVERHEAD.

COLD FROPA SHOULD OCCUR AT NYC METRO FROM 02-03Z...AND FARTHER
EAST AT 03Z-04Z...WITH S FLOW SHIFTING NW-NNW. FOLLOWED GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT NYC METRO AFTER
FROPA...BUT THIS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO QUICK. HELD ONTO IFR/LIFR
CONDS AT THE CT/LONG ISLAND TERMINALS FOR A FEW HRS AFTER FROPA.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO FLIGHT CAT LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING...ATTM DECIDED TO SIDE WITH MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE BUT
THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF VFR.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 02Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD PERSIST
UNTIL 04Z-05Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI AFTERNOON...BECOMING VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. N WINDS G15-20KT.
.SAT NIGHT-.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. SW WINDS 15G20KT...BECOMING WNW AT NIGHT.
.TUE...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SRN WATERS WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN. POTENTIAL OF OCNL SCA GUSTS ON THE
SOUND IF THE FRONT MAKES IT THRU. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALSO LIKELY
TIL MIDNIGHT...THEN THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT DISSIPATES IT LATE. SCA
COND REMAIN ON THE OCEAN FRI...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
AT LEAST THRU FRI NGT.

SCA POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL AS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA IS TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SCA CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HALF IN OR LESS OF PCPN IS EXPECTED INTO FRI MRNG. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ATTM.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANK FULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW
WILL INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS
UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ078>081-
     177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM





000
FXUS61 KOKX 261836
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
236 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST UPDATED MAINLY FOR MARINE HEADLINES. WITH LIFT SUPPLIED BY A
LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...RAIN PUSHES IN
FROM THE SOUTH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT...COMBINED WITH
SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL.
BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. EXPECTING PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AS WELL...AND SOME OF
THIS FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT. BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECT
FROM OFF THE COLD AREA WATERS.

OTHER CONCERN IS FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY OVER
EASTERN CT WHERE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY DUE
TO CONVECTION...AND COINCIDING WITH WHERE SNOW MELT CAN CONTRIBUTE TO
RUNOFF. OVERALL THREAT IS LOW...SO NO WATCH IS PLANNED FOR THIS.

USED A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH BRINGS THEM
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THROUGH WITH MORE RAINFALL. STILL ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT MAINLY FOR THE
EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE END TIME OF
RAINFALL...SO EVEN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. POPS THEN GRADUALLY LOWER INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON....WITH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AT A HIGH
CHANCE OF REMAINING DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT...SO HIGHS WILL MANAGE TO
AVERAGE NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN
LOWER THICKNESSES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY 30S REGION-
WIDE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THE
COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S. LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT APPROACHES FOR
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT.

WARM FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED INTO NYC METRO AND LONG
ISLAND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO MAKE MUCH MORE NORTHWARD
PROGRESS. SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT KJFK/KISP WITHIN THE NEXT HR.
OTHERWISE...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVING OVER COLD OCEAN WATERS
SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
COLD FROPA...WITH LLWS AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PASSES OVERHEAD.

COLD FROPA SHOULD OCCUR AT NYC METRO FROM 02-03Z...AND FARTHER
EAST AT 03Z-04Z...WITH S FLOW SHIFTING NW-NNW. FOLLOWED GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT NYC METRO AFTER
FROPA...BUT THIS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO QUICK. HELD ONTO IFR/LIFR
CONDS AT THE CT/LONG ISLAND TERMINALS FOR A FEW HRS AFTER FROPA.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO FLIGHT CAT LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING...ATTM DECIDED TO SIDE WITH MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE BUT
THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF VFR.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 02Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD PERSIST
UNTIL 04Z-05Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI AFTERNOON...BECOMING VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. N WINDS G15-20KT.
.SAT NIGHT-.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. SW WINDS 15G20KT...BECOMING WNW AT NIGHT.
.TUE...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SS BAYS
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

WAVES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST. ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. WIND AND WAVES
WILL BE ABOVE SCA CRITERIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WAVES COME DOWN BELOW
5 FT ON TUESDAY. WINDS STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK.

THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES
ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANK FULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW
WILL INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS
UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JMC/JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP




000
FXUS61 KOKX 261836
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
236 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST UPDATED MAINLY FOR MARINE HEADLINES. WITH LIFT SUPPLIED BY A
LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...RAIN PUSHES IN
FROM THE SOUTH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT...COMBINED WITH
SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL.
BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. EXPECTING PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AS WELL...AND SOME OF
THIS FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT. BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECT
FROM OFF THE COLD AREA WATERS.

OTHER CONCERN IS FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY OVER
EASTERN CT WHERE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY DUE
TO CONVECTION...AND COINCIDING WITH WHERE SNOW MELT CAN CONTRIBUTE TO
RUNOFF. OVERALL THREAT IS LOW...SO NO WATCH IS PLANNED FOR THIS.

USED A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH BRINGS THEM
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THROUGH WITH MORE RAINFALL. STILL ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT MAINLY FOR THE
EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE END TIME OF
RAINFALL...SO EVEN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. POPS THEN GRADUALLY LOWER INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON....WITH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AT A HIGH
CHANCE OF REMAINING DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT...SO HIGHS WILL MANAGE TO
AVERAGE NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN
LOWER THICKNESSES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY 30S REGION-
WIDE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THE
COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S. LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT APPROACHES FOR
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT.

WARM FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED INTO NYC METRO AND LONG
ISLAND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO MAKE MUCH MORE NORTHWARD
PROGRESS. SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT KJFK/KISP WITHIN THE NEXT HR.
OTHERWISE...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVING OVER COLD OCEAN WATERS
SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
COLD FROPA...WITH LLWS AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PASSES OVERHEAD.

COLD FROPA SHOULD OCCUR AT NYC METRO FROM 02-03Z...AND FARTHER
EAST AT 03Z-04Z...WITH S FLOW SHIFTING NW-NNW. FOLLOWED GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT NYC METRO AFTER
FROPA...BUT THIS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO QUICK. HELD ONTO IFR/LIFR
CONDS AT THE CT/LONG ISLAND TERMINALS FOR A FEW HRS AFTER FROPA.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO FLIGHT CAT LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING...ATTM DECIDED TO SIDE WITH MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE BUT
THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF VFR.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 03Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD
PERSIST UNTIL 05Z-06Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. COLD FROPA BY 02Z...BUT IFR CONDS COULD PERSIST
UNTIL 04Z-05Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI AFTERNOON...BECOMING VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. N WINDS G15-20KT.
.SAT NIGHT-.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. SW WINDS 15G20KT...BECOMING WNW AT NIGHT.
.TUE...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SS BAYS
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

WAVES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST. ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. WIND AND WAVES
WILL BE ABOVE SCA CRITERIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WAVES COME DOWN BELOW
5 FT ON TUESDAY. WINDS STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK.

THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES
ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANK FULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW
WILL INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS
UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JMC/JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP





000
FXUS61 KOKX 261612
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1212 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST UPDATED MAINLY FOR MARINE HEADLINES. WITH LIFT SUPPLIED BY A
LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...RAIN PUSHES IN
FROM THE SOUTH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT...COMBINED WITH
SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL.
BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. EXPECTING PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AS WELL...AND SOME OF
THIS FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT. BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECT
FROM OFF THE COLD AREA WATERS.

OTHER CONCERN IS FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY OVER
EASTERN CT WHERE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY DUE
TO CONVECTION...AND COINCIDING WITH WHERE SNOW MELT CAN CONTRIBUTE TO
RUNOFF. OVERALL THREAT IS LOW...SO NO WATCH IS PLANNED FOR THIS.

USED A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH BRINGS THEM
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THROUGH WITH MORE RAINFALL. STILL ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT MAINLY FOR THE
EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE END TIME OF
RAINFALL...SO EVEN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. POPS THEN GRADUALLY LOWER INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON....WITH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AT A HIGH
CHANCE OF REMAINING DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT...SO HIGHS WILL MANAGE TO
AVERAGE NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN
LOWER THICKNESSES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY 30S REGION-
WIDE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THE
COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S. LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT APPROACHES FOR
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL THE MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT.

WARM FRONT AT 14Z EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL NJ UP TO NEAR KISP TO
SOUTH OF MONTAUK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD.
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CONDS ARE MAINLY IFR BUT HAVE IMPROVED
TO MVFR IN SPOTS MAINLY AROUND NYC METRO. AS A WEAKENING CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS MOVES NE INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND BY 17Z AND CT BY 18Z...
CONDS SHOULD LOWER TO IFR. ATTM THINK THUNDER WILL AVOID NYC
METRO...BUT MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KISP IF THE CLUSTER HOLDS TOGETHER.
AFTER THIS CLUSTER PASSES...HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR MOVING OVER COLD
OCEAN WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CONDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MEDIUM POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIFR/VLIFR CONDS AT
KJFK/KHPN/KBDR/KGON/KISP...WITH A LOWER POTENTIAL AT KLGA/KEWR/KTEB.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED AFTER COLD FROPA TONIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS AFTER WARM FROPA WILL INCREASE TO 10-20KT MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW GUSTS 25-30 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS SHIFT WSW
AND THEN NW AFTER COLD FROPA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06...WITH GUSTS
15-20 KT.

LLWS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH
SW WINDS 55-65 KT AT 2 KFT AGL AT THE CT/LONG ISLAND TERMINALS...
AND 45-55 KT AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LIFR OR LOWER VSBY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR
CONDS RE-DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR
CONDS PREVAILING INTO THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI...BECOMING VFR...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. N-NE WINDS G15-25KT.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SS BAYS
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

WAVES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST. ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. WIND AND WAVES
WILL BE ABOVE SCA CRITERIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WAVES COME DOWN BELOW
5 FT ON TUESDAY. WINDS STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK.

THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES
ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANK FULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW
WILL INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS
UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GOODMAN/NV
MARINE...JMC/JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP




000
FXUS61 KOKX 261612
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1212 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST UPDATED MAINLY FOR MARINE HEADLINES. WITH LIFT SUPPLIED BY A
LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...RAIN PUSHES IN
FROM THE SOUTH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT...COMBINED WITH
SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL.
BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. EXPECTING PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AS WELL...AND SOME OF
THIS FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT. BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECT
FROM OFF THE COLD AREA WATERS.

OTHER CONCERN IS FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY OVER
EASTERN CT WHERE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY DUE
TO CONVECTION...AND COINCIDING WITH WHERE SNOW MELT CAN CONTRIBUTE TO
RUNOFF. OVERALL THREAT IS LOW...SO NO WATCH IS PLANNED FOR THIS.

USED A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH BRINGS THEM
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THROUGH WITH MORE RAINFALL. STILL ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT MAINLY FOR THE
EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE END TIME OF
RAINFALL...SO EVEN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. POPS THEN GRADUALLY LOWER INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON....WITH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AT A HIGH
CHANCE OF REMAINING DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT...SO HIGHS WILL MANAGE TO
AVERAGE NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN
LOWER THICKNESSES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY 30S REGION-
WIDE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THE
COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S. LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT APPROACHES FOR
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL THE MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT.

WARM FRONT AT 14Z EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL NJ UP TO NEAR KISP TO
SOUTH OF MONTAUK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD.
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CONDS ARE MAINLY IFR BUT HAVE IMPROVED
TO MVFR IN SPOTS MAINLY AROUND NYC METRO. AS A WEAKENING CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS MOVES NE INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND BY 17Z AND CT BY 18Z...
CONDS SHOULD LOWER TO IFR. ATTM THINK THUNDER WILL AVOID NYC
METRO...BUT MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KISP IF THE CLUSTER HOLDS TOGETHER.
AFTER THIS CLUSTER PASSES...HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR MOVING OVER COLD
OCEAN WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CONDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MEDIUM POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIFR/VLIFR CONDS AT
KJFK/KHPN/KBDR/KGON/KISP...WITH A LOWER POTENTIAL AT KLGA/KEWR/KTEB.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED AFTER COLD FROPA TONIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS AFTER WARM FROPA WILL INCREASE TO 10-20KT MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW GUSTS 25-30 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS SHIFT WSW
AND THEN NW AFTER COLD FROPA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06...WITH GUSTS
15-20 KT.

LLWS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH
SW WINDS 55-65 KT AT 2 KFT AGL AT THE CT/LONG ISLAND TERMINALS...
AND 45-55 KT AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LIFR OR LOWER VSBY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR
CONDS RE-DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR
CONDS PREVAILING INTO THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI...BECOMING VFR...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. N-NE WINDS G15-25KT.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SS BAYS
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

WAVES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST. ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. WIND AND WAVES
WILL BE ABOVE SCA CRITERIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WAVES COME DOWN BELOW
5 FT ON TUESDAY. WINDS STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK.

THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES
ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANK FULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW
WILL INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS
UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GOODMAN/NV
MARINE...JMC/JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP





000
FXUS61 KOKX 261612
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1212 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST UPDATED MAINLY FOR MARINE HEADLINES. WITH LIFT SUPPLIED BY A
LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...RAIN PUSHES IN
FROM THE SOUTH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT...COMBINED WITH
SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL.
BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. EXPECTING PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AS WELL...AND SOME OF
THIS FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT. BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECT
FROM OFF THE COLD AREA WATERS.

OTHER CONCERN IS FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY OVER
EASTERN CT WHERE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY DUE
TO CONVECTION...AND COINCIDING WITH WHERE SNOW MELT CAN CONTRIBUTE TO
RUNOFF. OVERALL THREAT IS LOW...SO NO WATCH IS PLANNED FOR THIS.

USED A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH BRINGS THEM
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THROUGH WITH MORE RAINFALL. STILL ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT MAINLY FOR THE
EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE END TIME OF
RAINFALL...SO EVEN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. POPS THEN GRADUALLY LOWER INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON....WITH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AT A HIGH
CHANCE OF REMAINING DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT...SO HIGHS WILL MANAGE TO
AVERAGE NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN
LOWER THICKNESSES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY 30S REGION-
WIDE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THE
COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S. LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT APPROACHES FOR
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL THE MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT.

WARM FRONT AT 14Z EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL NJ UP TO NEAR KISP TO
SOUTH OF MONTAUK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD.
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CONDS ARE MAINLY IFR BUT HAVE IMPROVED
TO MVFR IN SPOTS MAINLY AROUND NYC METRO. AS A WEAKENING CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS MOVES NE INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND BY 17Z AND CT BY 18Z...
CONDS SHOULD LOWER TO IFR. ATTM THINK THUNDER WILL AVOID NYC
METRO...BUT MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KISP IF THE CLUSTER HOLDS TOGETHER.
AFTER THIS CLUSTER PASSES...HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR MOVING OVER COLD
OCEAN WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CONDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MEDIUM POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIFR/VLIFR CONDS AT
KJFK/KHPN/KBDR/KGON/KISP...WITH A LOWER POTENTIAL AT KLGA/KEWR/KTEB.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED AFTER COLD FROPA TONIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS AFTER WARM FROPA WILL INCREASE TO 10-20KT MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW GUSTS 25-30 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS SHIFT WSW
AND THEN NW AFTER COLD FROPA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06...WITH GUSTS
15-20 KT.

LLWS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH
SW WINDS 55-65 KT AT 2 KFT AGL AT THE CT/LONG ISLAND TERMINALS...
AND 45-55 KT AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LIFR OR LOWER VSBY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR
CONDS RE-DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR
CONDS PREVAILING INTO THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI...BECOMING VFR...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. N-NE WINDS G15-25KT.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SS BAYS
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

WAVES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST. ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. WIND AND WAVES
WILL BE ABOVE SCA CRITERIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WAVES COME DOWN BELOW
5 FT ON TUESDAY. WINDS STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK.

THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES
ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANK FULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW
WILL INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS
UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GOODMAN/NV
MARINE...JMC/JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP





000
FXUS61 KOKX 261612
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1212 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST UPDATED MAINLY FOR MARINE HEADLINES. WITH LIFT SUPPLIED BY A
LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...RAIN PUSHES IN
FROM THE SOUTH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT...COMBINED WITH
SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL.
BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. EXPECTING PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AS WELL...AND SOME OF
THIS FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT. BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECT
FROM OFF THE COLD AREA WATERS.

OTHER CONCERN IS FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY OVER
EASTERN CT WHERE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY DUE
TO CONVECTION...AND COINCIDING WITH WHERE SNOW MELT CAN CONTRIBUTE TO
RUNOFF. OVERALL THREAT IS LOW...SO NO WATCH IS PLANNED FOR THIS.

USED A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH BRINGS THEM
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THROUGH WITH MORE RAINFALL. STILL ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT MAINLY FOR THE
EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE END TIME OF
RAINFALL...SO EVEN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. POPS THEN GRADUALLY LOWER INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON....WITH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AT A HIGH
CHANCE OF REMAINING DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT...SO HIGHS WILL MANAGE TO
AVERAGE NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN
LOWER THICKNESSES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY 30S REGION-
WIDE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THE
COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S. LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT APPROACHES FOR
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL THE MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT.

WARM FRONT AT 14Z EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL NJ UP TO NEAR KISP TO
SOUTH OF MONTAUK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD.
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CONDS ARE MAINLY IFR BUT HAVE IMPROVED
TO MVFR IN SPOTS MAINLY AROUND NYC METRO. AS A WEAKENING CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS MOVES NE INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND BY 17Z AND CT BY 18Z...
CONDS SHOULD LOWER TO IFR. ATTM THINK THUNDER WILL AVOID NYC
METRO...BUT MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KISP IF THE CLUSTER HOLDS TOGETHER.
AFTER THIS CLUSTER PASSES...HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR MOVING OVER COLD
OCEAN WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CONDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MEDIUM POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIFR/VLIFR CONDS AT
KJFK/KHPN/KBDR/KGON/KISP...WITH A LOWER POTENTIAL AT KLGA/KEWR/KTEB.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED AFTER COLD FROPA TONIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS AFTER WARM FROPA WILL INCREASE TO 10-20KT MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW GUSTS 25-30 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS SHIFT WSW
AND THEN NW AFTER COLD FROPA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06...WITH GUSTS
15-20 KT.

LLWS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH
SW WINDS 55-65 KT AT 2 KFT AGL AT THE CT/LONG ISLAND TERMINALS...
AND 45-55 KT AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LIFR OR LOWER VSBY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR
CONDS RE-DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR
CONDS PREVAILING INTO THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI...BECOMING VFR...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. N-NE WINDS G15-25KT.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SS BAYS
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

WAVES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST. ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. WIND AND WAVES
WILL BE ABOVE SCA CRITERIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WAVES COME DOWN BELOW
5 FT ON TUESDAY. WINDS STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK.

THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES
ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANK FULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW
WILL INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS
UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GOODMAN/NV
MARINE...JMC/JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP




000
FXUS61 KOKX 261502
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1102 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH LIFT SUPPLIED BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE...RAIN PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER AS WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF
THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECTING PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AS
WELL...AND SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
AT THIS POINT. BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS
ADVECT FROM OFF THE COLD AREA WATERS.

OTHER CONCERN IS FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY OVER
EASTERN CT WHERE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY DUE
TO CONVECTION...AND COINCIDING WITH WHERE SNOW MELT CAN CONTRIBUTE TO
RUNOFF. OVERALL THREAT IS LOW...SO NO WATCH IS PLANNED FOR THIS.

USED A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH BRINGS THEM
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THROUGH WITH MORE RAINFALL. STILL ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT MAINLY FOR THE
EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE END TIME OF
RAINFALL...SO EVEN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. POPS THEN GRADUALLY LOWER INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON....WITH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AT A HIGH
CHANCE OF REMAINING DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT...SO HIGHS WILL MANAGE TO
AVERAGE NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN
LOWER THICKNESSES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY 30S REGION-
WIDE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THE
COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S. LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT APPROACHES FOR
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL THE MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT.

WARM FRONT AT 14Z EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL NJ UP TO NEAR KISP TO
SOUTH OF MONTAUK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD.
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CONDS ARE MAINLY IFR BUT HAVE IMPROVED
TO MVFR IN SPOTS MAINLY AROUND NYC METRO. AS A WEAKENING CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS MOVES NE INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND BY 17Z AND CT BY 18Z...
CONDS SHOULD LOWER TO IFR. ATTM THINK THUNDER WILL AVOID NYC
METRO...BUT MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KISP IF THE CLUSTER HOLDS TOGETHER.
AFTER THIS CLUSTER PASSES...HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR MOVING OVER COLD
OCEAN WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CONDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MEDIUM POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIFR/VLIFR CONDS AT
KJFK/KHPN/KBDR/KGON/KISP...WITH A LOWER POTENTIAL AT KLGA/KEWR/KTEB.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED AFTER COLD FROPA TONIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS AFTER WARM FROPA WILL INCREASE TO 10-20KT MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW GUSTS 25-30 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS SHIFT WSW
AND THEN NW AFTER COLD FROPA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06...WITH GUSTS
15-20 KT.

LLWS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH
SW WINDS 55-65 KT AT 2 KFT AGL AT THE CT/LONG ISLAND TERMINALS...
AND 45-55 KT AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LIFR OR LOWER VSBY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR
CONDS RE-DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR
CONDS PREVAILING INTO THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI...BECOMING VFR...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. N-NE WINDS G15-25KT.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS MORNING AS MILD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DID NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE DAY...BUT
IT COULD REQUIRE AN EXTENSION IN TIME.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SS BAYS
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

WAVES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST. ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. WIND AND WAVES
WILL BE ABOVE SCA CRITERIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WAVES COME DOWN BELOW
5 FT ON TUESDAY. WINDS STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK.

THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES
ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANK FULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW
WILL INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS
UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GOODMAN/NV
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP




000
FXUS61 KOKX 261502
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1102 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH LIFT SUPPLIED BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE...RAIN PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER AS WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF
THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECTING PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AS
WELL...AND SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
AT THIS POINT. BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS
ADVECT FROM OFF THE COLD AREA WATERS.

OTHER CONCERN IS FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY OVER
EASTERN CT WHERE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY DUE
TO CONVECTION...AND COINCIDING WITH WHERE SNOW MELT CAN CONTRIBUTE TO
RUNOFF. OVERALL THREAT IS LOW...SO NO WATCH IS PLANNED FOR THIS.

USED A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH BRINGS THEM
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THROUGH WITH MORE RAINFALL. STILL ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT MAINLY FOR THE
EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE END TIME OF
RAINFALL...SO EVEN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. POPS THEN GRADUALLY LOWER INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON....WITH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AT A HIGH
CHANCE OF REMAINING DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT...SO HIGHS WILL MANAGE TO
AVERAGE NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN
LOWER THICKNESSES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY 30S REGION-
WIDE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THE
COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S. LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT APPROACHES FOR
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL THE MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT.

WARM FRONT AT 14Z EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL NJ UP TO NEAR KISP TO
SOUTH OF MONTAUK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD.
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CONDS ARE MAINLY IFR BUT HAVE IMPROVED
TO MVFR IN SPOTS MAINLY AROUND NYC METRO. AS A WEAKENING CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS MOVES NE INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND BY 17Z AND CT BY 18Z...
CONDS SHOULD LOWER TO IFR. ATTM THINK THUNDER WILL AVOID NYC
METRO...BUT MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KISP IF THE CLUSTER HOLDS TOGETHER.
AFTER THIS CLUSTER PASSES...HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR MOVING OVER COLD
OCEAN WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CONDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MEDIUM POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIFR/VLIFR CONDS AT
KJFK/KHPN/KBDR/KGON/KISP...WITH A LOWER POTENTIAL AT KLGA/KEWR/KTEB.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED AFTER COLD FROPA TONIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS AFTER WARM FROPA WILL INCREASE TO 10-20KT MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW GUSTS 25-30 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS SHIFT WSW
AND THEN NW AFTER COLD FROPA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06...WITH GUSTS
15-20 KT.

LLWS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH
SW WINDS 55-65 KT AT 2 KFT AGL AT THE CT/LONG ISLAND TERMINALS...
AND 45-55 KT AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LIFR OR LOWER VSBY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR
CONDS RE-DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR
CONDS PREVAILING INTO THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI...BECOMING VFR...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. N-NE WINDS G15-25KT.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS MORNING AS MILD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DID NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE DAY...BUT
IT COULD REQUIRE AN EXTENSION IN TIME.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SS BAYS
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

WAVES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST. ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. WIND AND WAVES
WILL BE ABOVE SCA CRITERIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WAVES COME DOWN BELOW
5 FT ON TUESDAY. WINDS STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK.

THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES
ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANK FULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW
WILL INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS
UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GOODMAN/NV
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP





000
FXUS61 KOKX 261435
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1035 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH LIFT SUPPLIED BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE...RAIN PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER AS WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF
THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECTING PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AS
WELL...AND SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
AT THIS POINT. BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS
ADVECT FROM OFF THE COLD AREA WATERS.

OTHER CONCERN IS FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY OVER
EASTERN CT WHERE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY DUE
TO CONVECTION...AND COINCIDING WITH WHERE SNOW MELT CAN CONTRIBUTE TO
RUNOFF. OVERALL THREAT IS LOW...SO NO WATCH IS PLANNED FOR THIS.

USED A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH BRINGS THEM
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THROUGH WITH MORE RAINFALL. STILL ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT MAINLY FOR THE
EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE END TIME OF
RAINFALL...SO EVEN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. POPS THEN GRADUALLY LOWER INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON....WITH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AT A HIGH
CHANCE OF REMAINING DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT...SO HIGHS WILL MANAGE TO
AVERAGE NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN
LOWER THICKNESSES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY 30S REGION-
WIDE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THE
COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S. LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT APPROACHES FOR
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THIS AFTERNOON...CROSSING TONIGHT.

LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING COULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z IN WAKE OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...BEFORE
COMING BACK DOWN TO IFR/LIFR THIS AFT/EVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. MODERATE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TO
REMAIN OR RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ADVECTION
FOG/STRATUS ACROSS KJFK/KHPN/KBDR/KGON/KISP. LESSER THREAT OF
THIS FOR KLGA/KEWR/KTEB. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN WAKE OF
COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPARSE THUNDER OCCURRING OVER TERMINALS THIS
AFT/EVE. OTHERWISE...PERIODS OF SHRA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. HEAVIEST ACTIVITY OVER NYC METRO TERMINALS AND POINTS
EAST.

SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT. WINDS
INCREASE TO S 10-20KT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT
POSSIBLE IN AFT/EVE. WINDS SHIFT WSW AND THEN NW FROM W TO E
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.

LLWS EXPECTED THIS AFT/EVE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS WITH SW WINDS AT
2 KFT OF 55-65KT AT CT/LI TERMINALS AND TO 45-55KT AT NYC
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDS
BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN LIFR OR LOWER VSBY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDS
BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDS THROUGH
16Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDS THROUGH
16Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR
CONDS PREVAILING INTO THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR
CONDS PREVAILING INTO THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH TAPERING -RA.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CHANCE MVFR WITH IN ANY -SHRA/-SHSN. N-NE
WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS MORNING AS MILD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DID NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE DAY...BUT
IT COULD REQUIRE AN EXTENSION IN TIME.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SS BAYS
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

WAVES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST. ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. WIND AND WAVES
WILL BE ABOVE SCA CRITERIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WAVES COME DOWN BELOW
5 FT ON TUESDAY. WINDS STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK.

THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES
ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED
ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP





000
FXUS61 KOKX 261150
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
750 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MAINLY THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT. NYC REMAINS WARMER THAN THE SURROUNDING
AREAS AND DO NOT THINK AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP HERE. HAVE
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NYC FOR
AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THE AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH ABOUT 9 OR 10 AM. THE FOG COULD LINGER LATER THAN THAT
WITH THE WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...IT COULD MIX THE FOG OUT. ADDITIONALLY...VSBYS UPSTREAM
HAVE IMPROVED. THE SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

JUST SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLIER PART OF THIS
MORNING...THEN WITH LIFT SUPPLIED BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...RAIN PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF
THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE
IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECTING PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG AS WELL...AND SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECT FROM OFF THE COLD AREA WATERS.

OTHER CONCERN IS FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY OVER
EASTERN CT WHERE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY DUE
TO CONVECTION...AND COINCIDING WITH WHERE SNOW MELT CAN CONTRIBUTE TO
RUNOFF. OVERALL THREAT IS LOW...SO NO WATCH IS PLANNED FOR THIS.

USED A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH BRINGS THEM
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THROUGH WITH MORE RAINFALL. STILL ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT MAINLY FOR THE
EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE END TIME OF
RAINFALL...SO EVEN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. POPS THEN GRADUALLY LOWER INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON....WITH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AT A HIGH
CHANCE OF REMAINING DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT...SO HIGHS WILL MANAGE TO
AVERAGE NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN
LOWER THICKNESSES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY 30S REGION-
WIDE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THE
COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S. LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT APPROACHES FOR
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THIS AFTERNOON...CROSSING TONIGHT.

LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING COULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z IN WAKE OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...BEFORE
COMING BACK DOWN TO IFR/LIFR THIS AFT/EVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. MODERATE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TO
REMAIN OR RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ADVECTION
FOG/STRATUS ACROSS KJFK/KHPN/KBDR/KGON/KISP. LESSER THREAT OF
THIS FOR KLGA/KEWR/KTEB. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN WAKE OF
COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPARSE THUNDER OCCURRING OVER TERMINALS THIS
AFT/EVE. OTHERWISE...PERIODS OF SHRA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. HEAVIEST ACTIVITY OVER NYC METRO TERMINALS AND POINTS
EAST.

SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT. WINDS
INCREASE TO S 10-20KT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT
POSSIBLE IN AFT/EVE. WINDS SHIFT WSW AND THEN NW FROM W TO E
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.

LLWS EXPECTED THIS AFT/EVE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS WITH SW WINDS AT
2 KFT OF 55-65KT AT CT/LI TERMINALS AND TO 45-55KT AT NYC
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDS
BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN LIFR OR LOWER VSBY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDS
BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDS THROUGH
16Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDS THROUGH
16Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR
CONDS PREVAILING INTO THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR
CONDS PREVAILING INTO THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH TAPERING -RA.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CHANCE MVFR WITH IN ANY -SHRA/-SHSN. N-NE
WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS MORNING AS MILD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DID NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE DAY...BUT
IT COULD REQUIRE AN EXTENSION IN TIME.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SS BAYS
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

WAVES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST. ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. WIND AND WAVES
WILL BE ABOVE SCA CRITERIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WAVES COME DOWN BELOW
5 FT ON TUESDAY. WINDS STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK.

THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES
ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED
ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP





000
FXUS61 KOKX 261150
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
750 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MAINLY THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT. NYC REMAINS WARMER THAN THE SURROUNDING
AREAS AND DO NOT THINK AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP HERE. HAVE
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NYC FOR
AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THE AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH ABOUT 9 OR 10 AM. THE FOG COULD LINGER LATER THAN THAT
WITH THE WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...IT COULD MIX THE FOG OUT. ADDITIONALLY...VSBYS UPSTREAM
HAVE IMPROVED. THE SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

JUST SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLIER PART OF THIS
MORNING...THEN WITH LIFT SUPPLIED BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...RAIN PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF
THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE
IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECTING PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG AS WELL...AND SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECT FROM OFF THE COLD AREA WATERS.

OTHER CONCERN IS FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY OVER
EASTERN CT WHERE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY DUE
TO CONVECTION...AND COINCIDING WITH WHERE SNOW MELT CAN CONTRIBUTE TO
RUNOFF. OVERALL THREAT IS LOW...SO NO WATCH IS PLANNED FOR THIS.

USED A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH BRINGS THEM
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THROUGH WITH MORE RAINFALL. STILL ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT MAINLY FOR THE
EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE END TIME OF
RAINFALL...SO EVEN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. POPS THEN GRADUALLY LOWER INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON....WITH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AT A HIGH
CHANCE OF REMAINING DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT...SO HIGHS WILL MANAGE TO
AVERAGE NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN
LOWER THICKNESSES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY 30S REGION-
WIDE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THE
COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S. LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT APPROACHES FOR
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THIS AFTERNOON...CROSSING TONIGHT.

LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING COULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z IN WAKE OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...BEFORE
COMING BACK DOWN TO IFR/LIFR THIS AFT/EVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. MODERATE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TO
REMAIN OR RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ADVECTION
FOG/STRATUS ACROSS KJFK/KHPN/KBDR/KGON/KISP. LESSER THREAT OF
THIS FOR KLGA/KEWR/KTEB. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN WAKE OF
COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPARSE THUNDER OCCURRING OVER TERMINALS THIS
AFT/EVE. OTHERWISE...PERIODS OF SHRA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. HEAVIEST ACTIVITY OVER NYC METRO TERMINALS AND POINTS
EAST.

SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT. WINDS
INCREASE TO S 10-20KT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT
POSSIBLE IN AFT/EVE. WINDS SHIFT WSW AND THEN NW FROM W TO E
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.

LLWS EXPECTED THIS AFT/EVE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS WITH SW WINDS AT
2 KFT OF 55-65KT AT CT/LI TERMINALS AND TO 45-55KT AT NYC
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDS
BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN LIFR OR LOWER VSBY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDS
BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDS THROUGH
16Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDS THROUGH
16Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR
CONDS PREVAILING INTO THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR
CONDS PREVAILING INTO THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH TAPERING -RA.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CHANCE MVFR WITH IN ANY -SHRA/-SHSN. N-NE
WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS MORNING AS MILD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DID NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE DAY...BUT
IT COULD REQUIRE AN EXTENSION IN TIME.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SS BAYS
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

WAVES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST. ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. WIND AND WAVES
WILL BE ABOVE SCA CRITERIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WAVES COME DOWN BELOW
5 FT ON TUESDAY. WINDS STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK.

THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES
ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED
ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP




000
FXUS61 KOKX 261150
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
750 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MAINLY THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT. NYC REMAINS WARMER THAN THE SURROUNDING
AREAS AND DO NOT THINK AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP HERE. HAVE
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NYC FOR
AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THE AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH ABOUT 9 OR 10 AM. THE FOG COULD LINGER LATER THAN THAT
WITH THE WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...IT COULD MIX THE FOG OUT. ADDITIONALLY...VSBYS UPSTREAM
HAVE IMPROVED. THE SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

JUST SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLIER PART OF THIS
MORNING...THEN WITH LIFT SUPPLIED BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...RAIN PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF
THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE
IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECTING PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG AS WELL...AND SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECT FROM OFF THE COLD AREA WATERS.

OTHER CONCERN IS FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY OVER
EASTERN CT WHERE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY DUE
TO CONVECTION...AND COINCIDING WITH WHERE SNOW MELT CAN CONTRIBUTE TO
RUNOFF. OVERALL THREAT IS LOW...SO NO WATCH IS PLANNED FOR THIS.

USED A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH BRINGS THEM
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THROUGH WITH MORE RAINFALL. STILL ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT MAINLY FOR THE
EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE END TIME OF
RAINFALL...SO EVEN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. POPS THEN GRADUALLY LOWER INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON....WITH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AT A HIGH
CHANCE OF REMAINING DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT...SO HIGHS WILL MANAGE TO
AVERAGE NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN
LOWER THICKNESSES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY 30S REGION-
WIDE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THE
COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S. LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT APPROACHES FOR
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THIS AFTERNOON...CROSSING TONIGHT.

LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING COULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z IN WAKE OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...BEFORE
COMING BACK DOWN TO IFR/LIFR THIS AFT/EVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. MODERATE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TO
REMAIN OR RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ADVECTION
FOG/STRATUS ACROSS KJFK/KHPN/KBDR/KGON/KISP. LESSER THREAT OF
THIS FOR KLGA/KEWR/KTEB. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN WAKE OF
COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPARSE THUNDER OCCURRING OVER TERMINALS THIS
AFT/EVE. OTHERWISE...PERIODS OF SHRA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. HEAVIEST ACTIVITY OVER NYC METRO TERMINALS AND POINTS
EAST.

SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT. WINDS
INCREASE TO S 10-20KT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT
POSSIBLE IN AFT/EVE. WINDS SHIFT WSW AND THEN NW FROM W TO E
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.

LLWS EXPECTED THIS AFT/EVE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS WITH SW WINDS AT
2 KFT OF 55-65KT AT CT/LI TERMINALS AND TO 45-55KT AT NYC
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDS
BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN LIFR OR LOWER VSBY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDS
BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDS THROUGH
16Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDS THROUGH
16Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR
CONDS PREVAILING INTO THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR
CONDS PREVAILING INTO THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH TAPERING -RA.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CHANCE MVFR WITH IN ANY -SHRA/-SHSN. N-NE
WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS MORNING AS MILD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DID NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE DAY...BUT
IT COULD REQUIRE AN EXTENSION IN TIME.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SS BAYS
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

WAVES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST. ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. WIND AND WAVES
WILL BE ABOVE SCA CRITERIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WAVES COME DOWN BELOW
5 FT ON TUESDAY. WINDS STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK.

THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES
ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED
ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP




000
FXUS61 KOKX 261150
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
750 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MAINLY THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT. NYC REMAINS WARMER THAN THE SURROUNDING
AREAS AND DO NOT THINK AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP HERE. HAVE
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NYC FOR
AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THE AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH ABOUT 9 OR 10 AM. THE FOG COULD LINGER LATER THAN THAT
WITH THE WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...IT COULD MIX THE FOG OUT. ADDITIONALLY...VSBYS UPSTREAM
HAVE IMPROVED. THE SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

JUST SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLIER PART OF THIS
MORNING...THEN WITH LIFT SUPPLIED BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...RAIN PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF
THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE
IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECTING PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG AS WELL...AND SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECT FROM OFF THE COLD AREA WATERS.

OTHER CONCERN IS FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY OVER
EASTERN CT WHERE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY DUE
TO CONVECTION...AND COINCIDING WITH WHERE SNOW MELT CAN CONTRIBUTE TO
RUNOFF. OVERALL THREAT IS LOW...SO NO WATCH IS PLANNED FOR THIS.

USED A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH BRINGS THEM
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THROUGH WITH MORE RAINFALL. STILL ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT MAINLY FOR THE
EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE END TIME OF
RAINFALL...SO EVEN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. POPS THEN GRADUALLY LOWER INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON....WITH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AT A HIGH
CHANCE OF REMAINING DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT...SO HIGHS WILL MANAGE TO
AVERAGE NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN
LOWER THICKNESSES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY 30S REGION-
WIDE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THE
COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S. LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT APPROACHES FOR
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THIS AFTERNOON...CROSSING TONIGHT.

LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING COULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z IN WAKE OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...BEFORE
COMING BACK DOWN TO IFR/LIFR THIS AFT/EVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. MODERATE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TO
REMAIN OR RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ADVECTION
FOG/STRATUS ACROSS KJFK/KHPN/KBDR/KGON/KISP. LESSER THREAT OF
THIS FOR KLGA/KEWR/KTEB. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN WAKE OF
COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPARSE THUNDER OCCURRING OVER TERMINALS THIS
AFT/EVE. OTHERWISE...PERIODS OF SHRA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. HEAVIEST ACTIVITY OVER NYC METRO TERMINALS AND POINTS
EAST.

SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT. WINDS
INCREASE TO S 10-20KT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT
POSSIBLE IN AFT/EVE. WINDS SHIFT WSW AND THEN NW FROM W TO E
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.

LLWS EXPECTED THIS AFT/EVE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS WITH SW WINDS AT
2 KFT OF 55-65KT AT CT/LI TERMINALS AND TO 45-55KT AT NYC
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDS
BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN LIFR OR LOWER VSBY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDS
BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDS THROUGH
16Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDS THROUGH
16Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR
CONDS PREVAILING INTO THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR
CONDS PREVAILING INTO THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH TAPERING -RA.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CHANCE MVFR WITH IN ANY -SHRA/-SHSN. N-NE
WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS MORNING AS MILD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DID NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE DAY...BUT
IT COULD REQUIRE AN EXTENSION IN TIME.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SS BAYS
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

WAVES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST. ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. WIND AND WAVES
WILL BE ABOVE SCA CRITERIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WAVES COME DOWN BELOW
5 FT ON TUESDAY. WINDS STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK.

THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES
ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED
ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP





000
FXUS61 KOKX 260904
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
504 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLIER PART OF THIS
MORNING...THEN WITH LIFT SUPPLIED BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...RAIN PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF
THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE
IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECTING PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG AS WELL...AND SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECT FROM OFF THE COLD AREA WATERS.

OTHER CONCERN IS FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY OVER
EASTERN CT WHERE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY DUE
TO CONVECTION...AND COINCIDING WITH WHERE SNOW MELT CAN CONTRIBUTE TO
RUNOFF. OVERALL THREAT IS LOW...SO NO WATCH IS PLANNED FOR THIS.

USED A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH BRINGS THEM
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THROUGH WITH MORE RAINFALL. STILL ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT MAINLY FOR THE
EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE END TIME OF
RAINFALL...SO EVEN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. POPS THEN GRADUALLY LOWER INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON....WITH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AT A HIGH
CHANCE OF REMAINING DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT...SO HIGHS WILL MANAGE TO
AVERAGE NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN
LOWER THICKNESSES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY 30S REGION-
WIDE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THE
COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S. LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT APPROACHES FOR
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THIS AFTERNOON...CROSSING TONIGHT.

IFR/LIFR CONDITION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOISTENING LOW- LEVELS
AND -DZ. CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR BETWEEN 14Z AND
18Z IN WAKE OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...BEFORE COMING BACK DOWN
THIS AFT/EVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
VLIFR CONDS ACROSS KJFK/KHPN/KBDR/KGON/KISP EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPARSE THUNDER OCCURRING OVER TERMINALS THIS
AFT/EVE. OTHERWISE...PERIODS OF SHRA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH BY
LATE MORNING IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO S 10-20KT
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE IN AFT/EVE.
WINDS SHIFT WSW AND THEN NW FROM W TO E BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH
GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.

MARGINAL LLWS ISSUES AT KJFK/KISP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SW WINDS OF 40 KT AT 2KFT. STRONGER LLWS EXPECTED THIS AFT/EVE
FOR COASTAL TERMINALS WITH SW WINDS AT 2 KFT OF 55-65KT AT CT/LI
TERMINALS AND TO 45-55KT AT NYC TERMINALS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDS
BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN LIFR OR LOWER VSBY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDS
BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDS BETWEEN
10Z AND 16Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDS BETWEEN
10Z AND 16Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. VLIFR
CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR THIS AFT/EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN -RA. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH TAPERING -RA.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CHANCE MVFR WITH IN ANY -SHRA/-SHSN. N-NE
WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS MORNING AS MILD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DID NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE DAY...BUT
IT COULD REQUIRE AN EXTENSION IN TIME.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SS BAYS
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

WAVES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST. ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. WIND AND WAVES
WILL BE ABOVE SCA CRITERIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WAVES COME DOWN BELOW
5 FT ON TUESDAY. WINDS STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK.

THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES
ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED
ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP





000
FXUS61 KOKX 260904
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
504 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLIER PART OF THIS
MORNING...THEN WITH LIFT SUPPLIED BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...RAIN PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF
THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE
IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECTING PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG AS WELL...AND SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECT FROM OFF THE COLD AREA WATERS.

OTHER CONCERN IS FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY OVER
EASTERN CT WHERE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY DUE
TO CONVECTION...AND COINCIDING WITH WHERE SNOW MELT CAN CONTRIBUTE TO
RUNOFF. OVERALL THREAT IS LOW...SO NO WATCH IS PLANNED FOR THIS.

USED A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH BRINGS THEM
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THROUGH WITH MORE RAINFALL. STILL ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT MAINLY FOR THE
EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE END TIME OF
RAINFALL...SO EVEN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. POPS THEN GRADUALLY LOWER INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON....WITH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AT A HIGH
CHANCE OF REMAINING DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT...SO HIGHS WILL MANAGE TO
AVERAGE NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN
LOWER THICKNESSES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY 30S REGION-
WIDE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THE
COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S. LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT APPROACHES FOR
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THIS AFTERNOON...CROSSING TONIGHT.

IFR/LIFR CONDITION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOISTENING LOW- LEVELS
AND -DZ. CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR BETWEEN 14Z AND
18Z IN WAKE OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...BEFORE COMING BACK DOWN
THIS AFT/EVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
VLIFR CONDS ACROSS KJFK/KHPN/KBDR/KGON/KISP EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPARSE THUNDER OCCURRING OVER TERMINALS THIS
AFT/EVE. OTHERWISE...PERIODS OF SHRA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH BY
LATE MORNING IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO S 10-20KT
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE IN AFT/EVE.
WINDS SHIFT WSW AND THEN NW FROM W TO E BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH
GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.

MARGINAL LLWS ISSUES AT KJFK/KISP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SW WINDS OF 40 KT AT 2KFT. STRONGER LLWS EXPECTED THIS AFT/EVE
FOR COASTAL TERMINALS WITH SW WINDS AT 2 KFT OF 55-65KT AT CT/LI
TERMINALS AND TO 45-55KT AT NYC TERMINALS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDS
BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN LIFR OR LOWER VSBY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDS
BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDS BETWEEN
10Z AND 16Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDS BETWEEN
10Z AND 16Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. VLIFR
CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR THIS AFT/EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN -RA. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH TAPERING -RA.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CHANCE MVFR WITH IN ANY -SHRA/-SHSN. N-NE
WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS MORNING AS MILD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DID NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE DAY...BUT
IT COULD REQUIRE AN EXTENSION IN TIME.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SS BAYS
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

WAVES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST. ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. WIND AND WAVES
WILL BE ABOVE SCA CRITERIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WAVES COME DOWN BELOW
5 FT ON TUESDAY. WINDS STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK.

THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES
ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED
ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP




000
FXUS61 KOKX 260813
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
413 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLIER PART OF THIS
MORNING...THEN WITH LIFT SUPPLIED BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...RAIN PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF
THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE
IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECTING PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG AS WELL...AND SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECT FROM OFF THE COLD AREA WATERS.

OTHER CONCERN IS FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY OVER
EASTERN CT WHERE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY DUE
TO CONVECTION...AND COINCIDING WITH WHERE SNOW MELT CAN CONTRIBUTE TO
RUNOFF. OVERALL THREAT IS LOW...SO NO WATCH IS PLANNED FOR THIS.

USED A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH BRINGS THEM
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THROUGH WITH MORE RAINFALL. STILL ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT MAINLY FOR THE
EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE END TIME OF
RAINFALL...SO EVEN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. POPS THEN GRADUALLY LOWER INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON....WITH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AT A HIGH
CHANCE OF REMAINING DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT...SO HIGHS WILL MANAGE TO
AVERAGE NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN
LOWER THICKNESSES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY 30S REGION-
WIDE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THE
COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S. LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT APPROACHES FOR
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THIS AFTERNOON...CROSSING TONIGHT.

MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH
MOISTENING LOW-LEVELS AND -DZ. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SO THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VLIFR CONDS ACROSS KJFK/KHPN/KBDR/KGON/KISP
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPARSE THUNDER OCCURRING OVER TERMINALS THIS
AFT/EVE. OTHERWISE...PERIODS OF SHRA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LIGHT E/SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH BY LATE
MORNING IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO S 10-20KT MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE IN AFT/EVE. WINDS
SHIFT WSW AND THEN NW FROM W TO E BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH GUSTS
15 TO 20 KT.

MARGINAL LLWS ISSUES AT KJFK/KISP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SW WINDS OF 40 KT AT 2KFT. STRONGER LLWS EXPECTED THIS AFT/EVE
FOR COASTAL TERMINALS WITH SW WINDS AT 2 KFT OF 60-70KT AT CT/LI
TERMINALS AND TO 50-60KT AT NYC TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN -RA. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH TAPERING -RA.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CHANCE MVFR WITH IN ANY -SHRA/-SHSN. N-NE
WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS MORNING AS MILD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DID NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE DAY...BUT
IT COULD REQUIRE AN EXTENSION IN TIME.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SS BAYS
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

WAVES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST. ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. WIND AND WAVES
WILL BE ABOVE SCA CRITERIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WAVES COME DOWN BELOW
5 FT ON TUESDAY. WINDS STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK.

THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES
ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED
ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP




000
FXUS61 KOKX 260813
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
413 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLIER PART OF THIS
MORNING...THEN WITH LIFT SUPPLIED BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...RAIN PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF
THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE
IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECTING PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG AS WELL...AND SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECT FROM OFF THE COLD AREA WATERS.

OTHER CONCERN IS FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY OVER
EASTERN CT WHERE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY DUE
TO CONVECTION...AND COINCIDING WITH WHERE SNOW MELT CAN CONTRIBUTE TO
RUNOFF. OVERALL THREAT IS LOW...SO NO WATCH IS PLANNED FOR THIS.

USED A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH BRINGS THEM
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THROUGH WITH MORE RAINFALL. STILL ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT MAINLY FOR THE
EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE END TIME OF
RAINFALL...SO EVEN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. POPS THEN GRADUALLY LOWER INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON....WITH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AT A HIGH
CHANCE OF REMAINING DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT...SO HIGHS WILL MANAGE TO
AVERAGE NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN
LOWER THICKNESSES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY 30S REGION-
WIDE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THE
COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S. LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT APPROACHES FOR
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THIS AFTERNOON...CROSSING TONIGHT.

MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH
MOISTENING LOW-LEVELS AND -DZ. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SO THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VLIFR CONDS ACROSS KJFK/KHPN/KBDR/KGON/KISP
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPARSE THUNDER OCCURRING OVER TERMINALS THIS
AFT/EVE. OTHERWISE...PERIODS OF SHRA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LIGHT E/SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH BY LATE
MORNING IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO S 10-20KT MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE IN AFT/EVE. WINDS
SHIFT WSW AND THEN NW FROM W TO E BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH GUSTS
15 TO 20 KT.

MARGINAL LLWS ISSUES AT KJFK/KISP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SW WINDS OF 40 KT AT 2KFT. STRONGER LLWS EXPECTED THIS AFT/EVE
FOR COASTAL TERMINALS WITH SW WINDS AT 2 KFT OF 60-70KT AT CT/LI
TERMINALS AND TO 50-60KT AT NYC TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN -RA. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH TAPERING -RA.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CHANCE MVFR WITH IN ANY -SHRA/-SHSN. N-NE
WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS MORNING AS MILD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DID NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE DAY...BUT
IT COULD REQUIRE AN EXTENSION IN TIME.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SS BAYS
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

WAVES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST. ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. WIND AND WAVES
WILL BE ABOVE SCA CRITERIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WAVES COME DOWN BELOW
5 FT ON TUESDAY. WINDS STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK.

THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES
ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED
ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP





000
FXUS61 KOKX 260813
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
413 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLIER PART OF THIS
MORNING...THEN WITH LIFT SUPPLIED BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...RAIN PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF
THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE
IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECTING PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG AS WELL...AND SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECT FROM OFF THE COLD AREA WATERS.

OTHER CONCERN IS FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY OVER
EASTERN CT WHERE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY DUE
TO CONVECTION...AND COINCIDING WITH WHERE SNOW MELT CAN CONTRIBUTE TO
RUNOFF. OVERALL THREAT IS LOW...SO NO WATCH IS PLANNED FOR THIS.

USED A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH BRINGS THEM
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THROUGH WITH MORE RAINFALL. STILL ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT MAINLY FOR THE
EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE END TIME OF
RAINFALL...SO EVEN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. POPS THEN GRADUALLY LOWER INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON....WITH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AT A HIGH
CHANCE OF REMAINING DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT...SO HIGHS WILL MANAGE TO
AVERAGE NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN
LOWER THICKNESSES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY 30S REGION-
WIDE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THE
COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S. LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT APPROACHES FOR
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THIS AFTERNOON...CROSSING TONIGHT.

MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH
MOISTENING LOW-LEVELS AND -DZ. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SO THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VLIFR CONDS ACROSS KJFK/KHPN/KBDR/KGON/KISP
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPARSE THUNDER OCCURRING OVER TERMINALS THIS
AFT/EVE. OTHERWISE...PERIODS OF SHRA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LIGHT E/SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH BY LATE
MORNING IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO S 10-20KT MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE IN AFT/EVE. WINDS
SHIFT WSW AND THEN NW FROM W TO E BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH GUSTS
15 TO 20 KT.

MARGINAL LLWS ISSUES AT KJFK/KISP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SW WINDS OF 40 KT AT 2KFT. STRONGER LLWS EXPECTED THIS AFT/EVE
FOR COASTAL TERMINALS WITH SW WINDS AT 2 KFT OF 60-70KT AT CT/LI
TERMINALS AND TO 50-60KT AT NYC TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN -RA. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH TAPERING -RA.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CHANCE MVFR WITH IN ANY -SHRA/-SHSN. N-NE
WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS MORNING AS MILD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DID NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE DAY...BUT
IT COULD REQUIRE AN EXTENSION IN TIME.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SS BAYS
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

WAVES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST. ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. WIND AND WAVES
WILL BE ABOVE SCA CRITERIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WAVES COME DOWN BELOW
5 FT ON TUESDAY. WINDS STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK.

THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES
ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED
ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP




000
FXUS61 KOKX 260813
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
413 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLIER PART OF THIS
MORNING...THEN WITH LIFT SUPPLIED BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...RAIN PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF
THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE
IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECTING PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG AS WELL...AND SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECT FROM OFF THE COLD AREA WATERS.

OTHER CONCERN IS FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY OVER
EASTERN CT WHERE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY DUE
TO CONVECTION...AND COINCIDING WITH WHERE SNOW MELT CAN CONTRIBUTE TO
RUNOFF. OVERALL THREAT IS LOW...SO NO WATCH IS PLANNED FOR THIS.

USED A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH BRINGS THEM
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THROUGH WITH MORE RAINFALL. STILL ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT MAINLY FOR THE
EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE END TIME OF
RAINFALL...SO EVEN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. POPS THEN GRADUALLY LOWER INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON....WITH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AT A HIGH
CHANCE OF REMAINING DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT...SO HIGHS WILL MANAGE TO
AVERAGE NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN
LOWER THICKNESSES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY 30S REGION-
WIDE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THE
COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S. LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT APPROACHES FOR
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THIS AFTERNOON...CROSSING TONIGHT.

MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH
MOISTENING LOW-LEVELS AND -DZ. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SO THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VLIFR CONDS ACROSS KJFK/KHPN/KBDR/KGON/KISP
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPARSE THUNDER OCCURRING OVER TERMINALS THIS
AFT/EVE. OTHERWISE...PERIODS OF SHRA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LIGHT E/SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH BY LATE
MORNING IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO S 10-20KT MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE IN AFT/EVE. WINDS
SHIFT WSW AND THEN NW FROM W TO E BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH GUSTS
15 TO 20 KT.

MARGINAL LLWS ISSUES AT KJFK/KISP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SW WINDS OF 40 KT AT 2KFT. STRONGER LLWS EXPECTED THIS AFT/EVE
FOR COASTAL TERMINALS WITH SW WINDS AT 2 KFT OF 60-70KT AT CT/LI
TERMINALS AND TO 50-60KT AT NYC TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN -RA. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH TAPERING -RA.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CHANCE MVFR WITH IN ANY -SHRA/-SHSN. N-NE
WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS MORNING AS MILD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DID NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE DAY...BUT
IT COULD REQUIRE AN EXTENSION IN TIME.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SS BAYS
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

WAVES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST. ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. WIND AND WAVES
WILL BE ABOVE SCA CRITERIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WAVES COME DOWN BELOW
5 FT ON TUESDAY. WINDS STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK.

THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES
ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED
ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP





000
FXUS61 KOKX 260611
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
211 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...AND WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. JUST LOOKING AT SOME
POSSIBLE DRIZZLE AS SATURATION WILL BE CONFINED BELOW 850 MB AND
ONLY WEAK LIFT AVAILABLE. WARM FRONT PROBABLY REMAINS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH FOR THE NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...CAN EXPECT ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREAS
OF ADVECTION FOG WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS WELL...WITH
VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOME AREAS NEAR THE COASTS POSSIBLY DROPPING
BELOW A MILE.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIFT INTO
THE REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER WESTERN ZONES...WHERE
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF STORMS
OVER EASTERN ZONES DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE.

COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING AS THOSE AREAS WILL NEAR THE FRONT.
BY AFTERNOON...MOST SHOWERS SHOULD BE DONE EXPECT FOR AREAS ALONG
THE COAST.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S IN/AROUND NYC...BUT FOG
WILL KEEP LONG ISLAND AND CT IN THE 50S. TEMPS WILL ALSO STAY IN
THE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH
WHILE AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WITH LOWERING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX
WITH AND TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH ALSO BUILDS IN. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE RIDGE. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ERODE THE COLD AIR
THAT WAS IN PLACE BEHIND THE PREVIOUS LOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH A WARM FRONT AND
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MOVING IN WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL...FORECAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THIS AFTERNOON...CROSSING TONIGHT.

MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH
MOISTENING LOW-LEVELS AND -DZ. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SO THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VLIFR CONDS ACROSS KJFK/KHPN/KBDR/KGON/KISP
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPARSE THUNDER OCCURRING OVER TERMINALS THIS
AFT/EVE. OTHERWISE...PERIODS OF SHRA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LIGHT E/SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH BY LATE
MORNING IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO S 10-20KT MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE IN AFT/EVE. WINDS
SHIFT WSW AND THEN NW FROM W TO E BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH GUSTS
15 TO 20 KT.

MARGINAL LLWS ISSUES AT KJFK/KISP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SW WINDS OF 40 KT AT 2KFT. STRONGER LLWS EXPECTED THIS AFT/EVE
FOR COASTAL TERMINALS WITH SW WINDS AT 2 KFT OF 60-70KT AT CT/LI
TERMINALS AND TO 50-60KT AT NYC TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN -RA. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH TAPERING -RA.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CHANCE MVFR WITH IN ANY -SHRA/-SHSN. N-NE
WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THEN A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THIS AFTERNOON. THAT FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SS BAYS
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST.
ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A
WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LINGER INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES
ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS
UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 260611
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
211 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...AND WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. JUST LOOKING AT SOME
POSSIBLE DRIZZLE AS SATURATION WILL BE CONFINED BELOW 850 MB AND
ONLY WEAK LIFT AVAILABLE. WARM FRONT PROBABLY REMAINS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH FOR THE NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...CAN EXPECT ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREAS
OF ADVECTION FOG WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS WELL...WITH
VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOME AREAS NEAR THE COASTS POSSIBLY DROPPING
BELOW A MILE.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIFT INTO
THE REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER WESTERN ZONES...WHERE
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF STORMS
OVER EASTERN ZONES DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE.

COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING AS THOSE AREAS WILL NEAR THE FRONT.
BY AFTERNOON...MOST SHOWERS SHOULD BE DONE EXPECT FOR AREAS ALONG
THE COAST.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S IN/AROUND NYC...BUT FOG
WILL KEEP LONG ISLAND AND CT IN THE 50S. TEMPS WILL ALSO STAY IN
THE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH
WHILE AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WITH LOWERING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX
WITH AND TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH ALSO BUILDS IN. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE RIDGE. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ERODE THE COLD AIR
THAT WAS IN PLACE BEHIND THE PREVIOUS LOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH A WARM FRONT AND
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MOVING IN WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL...FORECAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THIS AFTERNOON...CROSSING TONIGHT.

MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH
MOISTENING LOW-LEVELS AND -DZ. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SO THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VLIFR CONDS ACROSS KJFK/KHPN/KBDR/KGON/KISP
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPARSE THUNDER OCCURRING OVER TERMINALS THIS
AFT/EVE. OTHERWISE...PERIODS OF SHRA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LIGHT E/SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH BY LATE
MORNING IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO S 10-20KT MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE IN AFT/EVE. WINDS
SHIFT WSW AND THEN NW FROM W TO E BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH GUSTS
15 TO 20 KT.

MARGINAL LLWS ISSUES AT KJFK/KISP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SW WINDS OF 40 KT AT 2KFT. STRONGER LLWS EXPECTED THIS AFT/EVE
FOR COASTAL TERMINALS WITH SW WINDS AT 2 KFT OF 60-70KT AT CT/LI
TERMINALS AND TO 50-60KT AT NYC TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN -RA. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH TAPERING -RA.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CHANCE MVFR WITH IN ANY -SHRA/-SHSN. N-NE
WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THEN A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THIS AFTERNOON. THAT FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SS BAYS
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST.
ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A
WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LINGER INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES
ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS
UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 260611
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
211 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...AND WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. JUST LOOKING AT SOME
POSSIBLE DRIZZLE AS SATURATION WILL BE CONFINED BELOW 850 MB AND
ONLY WEAK LIFT AVAILABLE. WARM FRONT PROBABLY REMAINS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH FOR THE NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...CAN EXPECT ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREAS
OF ADVECTION FOG WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS WELL...WITH
VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOME AREAS NEAR THE COASTS POSSIBLY DROPPING
BELOW A MILE.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIFT INTO
THE REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER WESTERN ZONES...WHERE
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF STORMS
OVER EASTERN ZONES DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE.

COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING AS THOSE AREAS WILL NEAR THE FRONT.
BY AFTERNOON...MOST SHOWERS SHOULD BE DONE EXPECT FOR AREAS ALONG
THE COAST.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S IN/AROUND NYC...BUT FOG
WILL KEEP LONG ISLAND AND CT IN THE 50S. TEMPS WILL ALSO STAY IN
THE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH
WHILE AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WITH LOWERING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX
WITH AND TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH ALSO BUILDS IN. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE RIDGE. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ERODE THE COLD AIR
THAT WAS IN PLACE BEHIND THE PREVIOUS LOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH A WARM FRONT AND
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MOVING IN WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL...FORECAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THIS AFTERNOON...CROSSING TONIGHT.

MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH
MOISTENING LOW-LEVELS AND -DZ. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SO THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VLIFR CONDS ACROSS KJFK/KHPN/KBDR/KGON/KISP
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPARSE THUNDER OCCURRING OVER TERMINALS THIS
AFT/EVE. OTHERWISE...PERIODS OF SHRA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LIGHT E/SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH BY LATE
MORNING IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO S 10-20KT MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE IN AFT/EVE. WINDS
SHIFT WSW AND THEN NW FROM W TO E BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH GUSTS
15 TO 20 KT.

MARGINAL LLWS ISSUES AT KJFK/KISP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SW WINDS OF 40 KT AT 2KFT. STRONGER LLWS EXPECTED THIS AFT/EVE
FOR COASTAL TERMINALS WITH SW WINDS AT 2 KFT OF 60-70KT AT CT/LI
TERMINALS AND TO 50-60KT AT NYC TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN -RA. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH TAPERING -RA.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CHANCE MVFR WITH IN ANY -SHRA/-SHSN. N-NE
WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THEN A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THIS AFTERNOON. THAT FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SS BAYS
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST.
ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A
WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LINGER INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES
ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS
UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 260611
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
211 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...AND WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. JUST LOOKING AT SOME
POSSIBLE DRIZZLE AS SATURATION WILL BE CONFINED BELOW 850 MB AND
ONLY WEAK LIFT AVAILABLE. WARM FRONT PROBABLY REMAINS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH FOR THE NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...CAN EXPECT ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREAS
OF ADVECTION FOG WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS WELL...WITH
VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOME AREAS NEAR THE COASTS POSSIBLY DROPPING
BELOW A MILE.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIFT INTO
THE REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER WESTERN ZONES...WHERE
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF STORMS
OVER EASTERN ZONES DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE.

COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING AS THOSE AREAS WILL NEAR THE FRONT.
BY AFTERNOON...MOST SHOWERS SHOULD BE DONE EXPECT FOR AREAS ALONG
THE COAST.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S IN/AROUND NYC...BUT FOG
WILL KEEP LONG ISLAND AND CT IN THE 50S. TEMPS WILL ALSO STAY IN
THE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH
WHILE AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WITH LOWERING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX
WITH AND TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH ALSO BUILDS IN. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE RIDGE. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ERODE THE COLD AIR
THAT WAS IN PLACE BEHIND THE PREVIOUS LOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH A WARM FRONT AND
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MOVING IN WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL...FORECAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THIS AFTERNOON...CROSSING TONIGHT.

MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH
MOISTENING LOW-LEVELS AND -DZ. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SO THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VLIFR CONDS ACROSS KJFK/KHPN/KBDR/KGON/KISP
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPARSE THUNDER OCCURRING OVER TERMINALS THIS
AFT/EVE. OTHERWISE...PERIODS OF SHRA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LIGHT E/SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH BY LATE
MORNING IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO S 10-20KT MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE IN AFT/EVE. WINDS
SHIFT WSW AND THEN NW FROM W TO E BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH GUSTS
15 TO 20 KT.

MARGINAL LLWS ISSUES AT KJFK/KISP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SW WINDS OF 40 KT AT 2KFT. STRONGER LLWS EXPECTED THIS AFT/EVE
FOR COASTAL TERMINALS WITH SW WINDS AT 2 KFT OF 60-70KT AT CT/LI
TERMINALS AND TO 50-60KT AT NYC TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN -RA. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH TAPERING -RA.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CHANCE MVFR WITH IN ANY -SHRA/-SHSN. N-NE
WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THEN A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THIS AFTERNOON. THAT FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SS BAYS
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST.
ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A
WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LINGER INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES
ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS
UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 260250
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1050 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...AND WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT. THE PRECIPITATION IS
LIGHT...AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAIN OR SO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THAT...A WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO LIFT
TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE THROUGH BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SFC
DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE LOW 40S...CAN
EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP...AS THE WARM AND MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE
RELATIVE COLDER OCEAN WATERS.

WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN ADDITION TO THE FOG.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...CAN EXPECT ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREAS
OF ADVECTION FOG WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS WELL...WITH
VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOME AREAS NEAR THE COASTS POSSIBLY DROPPING
BELOW A MILE.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIFT INTO
THE REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER WESTERN ZONES...WHERE
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF STORMS
OVER EASTERN ZONES DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE.

COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING AS THOSE AREAS WILL NEAR THE FRONT.
BY AFTERNOON...MOST SHOWERS SHOULD BE DONE EXPECT FOR AREAS ALONG
THE COAST.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S IN/AROUND NYC...BUT FOG
WILL KEEP LONG ISLAND AND CT IN THE 50S. TEMPS WILL ALSO STAY IN
THE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH
WHILE AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WITH LOWERING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX
WITH AND TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH ALSO BUILDS IN. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE RIDGE. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ERODE THE COLD AIR
THAT WAS IN PLACE BEHIND THE PREVIOUS LOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH A WARM FRONT AND
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MOVING IN WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL...FORECAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.

MVFR TO IFR AT ALL BUT KJFK...WHICH SHOULD GO OVER SHORTLY. ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD BE IFR OR LOWER BY 7-9Z FROM W TO E...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...CITY TERMINALS COULD VARY FROM LIFR TO MVFR THURSDAY
MORNING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT WESTERN TERMINALS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TO LOW TO
REFLECT IN TAFS.

WINDS QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN
BECOME S-SSE AT UNDER 10KT BY MID-LATE THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS
INCREASE TO S 10-15KT EARLY-MID THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LLWS PROBABLE AT KJFK/KISP OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER ONLY CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IN AT KJFK AND KISP AT THIS
TIME. LLWS IS LIKELY AT AROUND 18-19ZZ AT KISP/KBDR/KGON AND AT
22Z AT ALL BUT KSWF/KHPN/KTEB. WINDS AT 2000 FT INCREASE TO 55 TO
POSSIBLY 70KT AT CT/LONG ISLAND TERMINALS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TO 45-55KT AT NYC TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT..MVFR/IFR OR LOWER IN SHRA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. LLWS LIKELY EASTERN TERMINALS AND POSSIBLE CITY
TERMINALS THURSDAY EVENING. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
.FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CHANCE MVFR WITH IN ANY -SHRA/-SHSN. N-NE
WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND THEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY. THAT FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS ON FRIDAY.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
ON THE SS BAYS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON
THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST.
ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A
WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LINGER INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO
MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 260250
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1050 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...AND WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT. THE PRECIPITATION IS
LIGHT...AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAIN OR SO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THAT...A WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO LIFT
TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE THROUGH BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SFC
DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE LOW 40S...CAN
EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP...AS THE WARM AND MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE
RELATIVE COLDER OCEAN WATERS.

WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN ADDITION TO THE FOG.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...CAN EXPECT ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREAS
OF ADVECTION FOG WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS WELL...WITH
VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOME AREAS NEAR THE COASTS POSSIBLY DROPPING
BELOW A MILE.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIFT INTO
THE REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER WESTERN ZONES...WHERE
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF STORMS
OVER EASTERN ZONES DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE.

COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING AS THOSE AREAS WILL NEAR THE FRONT.
BY AFTERNOON...MOST SHOWERS SHOULD BE DONE EXPECT FOR AREAS ALONG
THE COAST.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S IN/AROUND NYC...BUT FOG
WILL KEEP LONG ISLAND AND CT IN THE 50S. TEMPS WILL ALSO STAY IN
THE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH
WHILE AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WITH LOWERING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX
WITH AND TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH ALSO BUILDS IN. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE RIDGE. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ERODE THE COLD AIR
THAT WAS IN PLACE BEHIND THE PREVIOUS LOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH A WARM FRONT AND
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MOVING IN WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL...FORECAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.

MVFR TO IFR AT ALL BUT KJFK...WHICH SHOULD GO OVER SHORTLY. ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD BE IFR OR LOWER BY 7-9Z FROM W TO E...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...CITY TERMINALS COULD VARY FROM LIFR TO MVFR THURSDAY
MORNING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT WESTERN TERMINALS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TO LOW TO
REFLECT IN TAFS.

WINDS QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN
BECOME S-SSE AT UNDER 10KT BY MID-LATE THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS
INCREASE TO S 10-15KT EARLY-MID THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LLWS PROBABLE AT KJFK/KISP OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER ONLY CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IN AT KJFK AND KISP AT THIS
TIME. LLWS IS LIKELY AT AROUND 18-19ZZ AT KISP/KBDR/KGON AND AT
22Z AT ALL BUT KSWF/KHPN/KTEB. WINDS AT 2000 FT INCREASE TO 55 TO
POSSIBLY 70KT AT CT/LONG ISLAND TERMINALS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TO 45-55KT AT NYC TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT..MVFR/IFR OR LOWER IN SHRA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. LLWS LIKELY EASTERN TERMINALS AND POSSIBLE CITY
TERMINALS THURSDAY EVENING. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
.FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CHANCE MVFR WITH IN ANY -SHRA/-SHSN. N-NE
WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND THEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY. THAT FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS ON FRIDAY.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
ON THE SS BAYS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON
THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST.
ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A
WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LINGER INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO
MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 260150
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
950 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...AND WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT. THE PRECIPITATION IS
LIGHT...AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAIN OR SO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THAT...A WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO LIFT
TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE THROUGH BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SFC
DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE LOW 40S...CAN
EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP...AS THE WARM AND MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE
RELATIVE COLDER OCEAN WATERS.

WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN ADDITION TO THE FOG.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...CAN EXPECT ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREAS
OF ADVECTION FOG WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS WELL...WITH
VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOME AREAS NEAR THE COASTS POSSIBLY DROPPING
BELOW A MILE.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIFT INTO
THE REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER WESTERN ZONES...WHERE
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF STORMS
OVER EASTERN ZONES DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE.

COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING AS THOSE AREAS WILL NEAR THE FRONT.
BY AFTERNOON...MOST SHOWERS SHOULD BE DONE EXPECT FOR AREAS ALONG
THE COAST.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S IN/AROUND NYC...BUT FOG
WILL KEEP LONG ISLAND AND CT IN THE 50S. TEMPS WILL ALSO STAY IN
THE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH
WHILE AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WITH LOWERING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX
WITH AND TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH ALSO BUILDS IN. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE RIDGE. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ERODE THE COLD AIR
THAT WAS IN PLACE BEHIND THE PREVIOUS LOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH A WARM FRONT AND
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MOVING IN WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL...FORECAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.

MVFR WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS EVENING...THEN IFR
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER 6Z. IFR WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT WESTERN TERMINALS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TO LOW TO
REFLECT IN TAFS.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING. WINDS
THEN BECOME S-SSE AT UNDER 10KT BY MID-LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS INCREASE TO S 10-15KT EARLY-MID THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LLWS PROBABLE AT KJFK/KISP OVERNIGHT...AND THEN IS LIKELY AT
AROUND 18-19ZZ AT KISP/KBDR/KGON AND AT 22Z AT ALL BUT
KSWF/KHPN/KTEB. WINDS AT 2000 FT INCREASE TO 55-65 KT AT CT/LONG
ISLAND TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO 45-55KT AT NYC
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT..MVFR/IFR OR LOWER IN SHRA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. LLWS LIKELY EASTERN TERMINALS AND POSSIBLE CITY
TERMINALS THURSDAY EVENING. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
.FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CHANCE MVFR WITH IN ANY -SHRA/-SHSN. N-NE
WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND THEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY. THAT FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS ON FRIDAY.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
ON THE SS BAYS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON
THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST.
ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A
WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LINGER INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO
MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 260150
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
950 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...AND WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT. THE PRECIPITATION IS
LIGHT...AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAIN OR SO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THAT...A WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO LIFT
TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE THROUGH BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SFC
DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE LOW 40S...CAN
EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP...AS THE WARM AND MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE
RELATIVE COLDER OCEAN WATERS.

WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN ADDITION TO THE FOG.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...CAN EXPECT ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREAS
OF ADVECTION FOG WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS WELL...WITH
VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOME AREAS NEAR THE COASTS POSSIBLY DROPPING
BELOW A MILE.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIFT INTO
THE REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER WESTERN ZONES...WHERE
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF STORMS
OVER EASTERN ZONES DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE.

COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING AS THOSE AREAS WILL NEAR THE FRONT.
BY AFTERNOON...MOST SHOWERS SHOULD BE DONE EXPECT FOR AREAS ALONG
THE COAST.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S IN/AROUND NYC...BUT FOG
WILL KEEP LONG ISLAND AND CT IN THE 50S. TEMPS WILL ALSO STAY IN
THE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH
WHILE AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WITH LOWERING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX
WITH AND TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH ALSO BUILDS IN. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE RIDGE. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ERODE THE COLD AIR
THAT WAS IN PLACE BEHIND THE PREVIOUS LOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH A WARM FRONT AND
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MOVING IN WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL...FORECAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.

MVFR WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS EVENING...THEN IFR
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER 6Z. IFR WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT WESTERN TERMINALS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TO LOW TO
REFLECT IN TAFS.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING. WINDS
THEN BECOME S-SSE AT UNDER 10KT BY MID-LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS INCREASE TO S 10-15KT EARLY-MID THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LLWS PROBABLE AT KJFK/KISP OVERNIGHT...AND THEN IS LIKELY AT
AROUND 18-19ZZ AT KISP/KBDR/KGON AND AT 22Z AT ALL BUT
KSWF/KHPN/KTEB. WINDS AT 2000 FT INCREASE TO 55-65 KT AT CT/LONG
ISLAND TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO 45-55KT AT NYC
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT..MVFR/IFR OR LOWER IN SHRA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. LLWS LIKELY EASTERN TERMINALS AND POSSIBLE CITY
TERMINALS THURSDAY EVENING. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
.FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CHANCE MVFR WITH IN ANY -SHRA/-SHSN. N-NE
WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND THEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY. THAT FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS ON FRIDAY.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
ON THE SS BAYS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON
THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST.
ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A
WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LINGER INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO
MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 260012
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
812 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...AND WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE PRECIPITATION IS LIGHT...AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR SO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THAT...A WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO LIFT
TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE THROUGH BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SFC
DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE LOW 40S...CAN
EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP...AS THE WARM AND MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE
RELATIVE COLDER OCEAN WATERS.

WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN ADDITION TO THE FOG.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...CAN EXPECT ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREAS
OF ADVECTION FOG WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS WELL...WITH
VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOME AREAS NEAR THE COASTS POSSIBLY DROPPING
BELOW A MILE.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIFT INTO
THE REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER WESTERN ZONES...WHERE
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF STORMS
OVER EASTERN ZONES DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE.

COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING AS THOSE AREAS WILL NEAR THE FRONT.
BY AFTERNOON...MOST SHOWERS SHOULD BE DONE EXPECT FOR AREAS ALONG
THE COAST.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S IN/AROUND NYC...BUT FOG
WILL KEEP LONG ISLAND AND CT IN THE 50S. TEMPS WILL ALSO STAY IN
THE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH
WHILE AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WITH LOWERING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX
WITH AND TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH ALSO BUILDS IN. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE RIDGE. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ERODE THE COLD AIR
THAT WAS IN PLACE BEHIND THE PREVIOUS LOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH A WARM FRONT AND
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MOVING IN WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL...FORECAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.

MVFR WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS EVENING...THEN IFR
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER 6Z. IFR WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT WESTERN TERMINALS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TO LOW TO
REFLECT IN TAFS.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING. WINDS
THEN BECOME S-SSE AT UNDER 10KT BY MID-LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS INCREASE TO S 10-15KT EARLY-MID THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LLWS PROBABLE AT KJFK/KISP OVERNIGHT...AND THEN IS LIKELY AT
AROUND 18-19ZZ AT KISP/KBDR/KGON AND AT 22Z AT ALL BUT
KSWF/KHPN/KTEB. WINDS AT 2000 FT INCREASE TO 55-65 KT AT CT/LONG
ISLAND TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO 45-55KT AT NYC
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT..MVFR/IFR OR LOWER IN SHRA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. LLWS LIKELY EASTERN TERMINALS AND POSSIBLE CITY
TERMINALS THURSDAY EVENING. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
.FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CHANCE MVFR WITH IN ANY -SHRA/-SHSN. N-NE
WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND THEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY. THAT FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS ON FRIDAY.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
ON THE SS BAYS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON
THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST.
ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A
WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LINGER INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO
MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ345.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 260012
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
812 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...AND WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE PRECIPITATION IS LIGHT...AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR SO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THAT...A WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO LIFT
TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE THROUGH BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SFC
DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE LOW 40S...CAN
EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP...AS THE WARM AND MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE
RELATIVE COLDER OCEAN WATERS.

WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN ADDITION TO THE FOG.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...CAN EXPECT ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREAS
OF ADVECTION FOG WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS WELL...WITH
VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOME AREAS NEAR THE COASTS POSSIBLY DROPPING
BELOW A MILE.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIFT INTO
THE REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER WESTERN ZONES...WHERE
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF STORMS
OVER EASTERN ZONES DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE.

COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING AS THOSE AREAS WILL NEAR THE FRONT.
BY AFTERNOON...MOST SHOWERS SHOULD BE DONE EXPECT FOR AREAS ALONG
THE COAST.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S IN/AROUND NYC...BUT FOG
WILL KEEP LONG ISLAND AND CT IN THE 50S. TEMPS WILL ALSO STAY IN
THE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH
WHILE AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WITH LOWERING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX
WITH AND TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH ALSO BUILDS IN. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE RIDGE. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ERODE THE COLD AIR
THAT WAS IN PLACE BEHIND THE PREVIOUS LOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH A WARM FRONT AND
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MOVING IN WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL...FORECAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.

MVFR WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS EVENING...THEN IFR
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER 6Z. IFR WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT WESTERN TERMINALS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TO LOW TO
REFLECT IN TAFS.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING. WINDS
THEN BECOME S-SSE AT UNDER 10KT BY MID-LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS INCREASE TO S 10-15KT EARLY-MID THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LLWS PROBABLE AT KJFK/KISP OVERNIGHT...AND THEN IS LIKELY AT
AROUND 18-19ZZ AT KISP/KBDR/KGON AND AT 22Z AT ALL BUT
KSWF/KHPN/KTEB. WINDS AT 2000 FT INCREASE TO 55-65 KT AT CT/LONG
ISLAND TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO 45-55KT AT NYC
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT..MVFR/IFR OR LOWER IN SHRA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. LLWS LIKELY EASTERN TERMINALS AND POSSIBLE CITY
TERMINALS THURSDAY EVENING. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
.FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CHANCE MVFR WITH IN ANY -SHRA/-SHSN. N-NE
WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND THEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY. THAT FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS ON FRIDAY.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
ON THE SS BAYS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON
THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST.
ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A
WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LINGER INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO
MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ345.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 260012
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
812 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...AND WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE PRECIPITATION IS LIGHT...AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR SO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THAT...A WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO LIFT
TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE THROUGH BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SFC
DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE LOW 40S...CAN
EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP...AS THE WARM AND MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE
RELATIVE COLDER OCEAN WATERS.

WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN ADDITION TO THE FOG.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...CAN EXPECT ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREAS
OF ADVECTION FOG WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS WELL...WITH
VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOME AREAS NEAR THE COASTS POSSIBLY DROPPING
BELOW A MILE.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIFT INTO
THE REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER WESTERN ZONES...WHERE
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF STORMS
OVER EASTERN ZONES DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE.

COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING AS THOSE AREAS WILL NEAR THE FRONT.
BY AFTERNOON...MOST SHOWERS SHOULD BE DONE EXPECT FOR AREAS ALONG
THE COAST.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S IN/AROUND NYC...BUT FOG
WILL KEEP LONG ISLAND AND CT IN THE 50S. TEMPS WILL ALSO STAY IN
THE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH
WHILE AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WITH LOWERING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX
WITH AND TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH ALSO BUILDS IN. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE RIDGE. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ERODE THE COLD AIR
THAT WAS IN PLACE BEHIND THE PREVIOUS LOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH A WARM FRONT AND
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MOVING IN WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL...FORECAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.

MVFR WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS EVENING...THEN IFR
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER 6Z. IFR WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT WESTERN TERMINALS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TO LOW TO
REFLECT IN TAFS.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING. WINDS
THEN BECOME S-SSE AT UNDER 10KT BY MID-LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS INCREASE TO S 10-15KT EARLY-MID THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LLWS PROBABLE AT KJFK/KISP OVERNIGHT...AND THEN IS LIKELY AT
AROUND 18-19ZZ AT KISP/KBDR/KGON AND AT 22Z AT ALL BUT
KSWF/KHPN/KTEB. WINDS AT 2000 FT INCREASE TO 55-65 KT AT CT/LONG
ISLAND TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO 45-55KT AT NYC
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT..MVFR/IFR OR LOWER IN SHRA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. LLWS LIKELY EASTERN TERMINALS AND POSSIBLE CITY
TERMINALS THURSDAY EVENING. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
.FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CHANCE MVFR WITH IN ANY -SHRA/-SHSN. N-NE
WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND THEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY. THAT FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS ON FRIDAY.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
ON THE SS BAYS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON
THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST.
ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A
WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LINGER INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO
MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ345.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 260012
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
812 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...AND WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE PRECIPITATION IS LIGHT...AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR SO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THAT...A WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO LIFT
TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE THROUGH BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SFC
DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE LOW 40S...CAN
EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP...AS THE WARM AND MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE
RELATIVE COLDER OCEAN WATERS.

WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN ADDITION TO THE FOG.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...CAN EXPECT ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREAS
OF ADVECTION FOG WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS WELL...WITH
VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOME AREAS NEAR THE COASTS POSSIBLY DROPPING
BELOW A MILE.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIFT INTO
THE REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER WESTERN ZONES...WHERE
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF STORMS
OVER EASTERN ZONES DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE.

COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING AS THOSE AREAS WILL NEAR THE FRONT.
BY AFTERNOON...MOST SHOWERS SHOULD BE DONE EXPECT FOR AREAS ALONG
THE COAST.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S IN/AROUND NYC...BUT FOG
WILL KEEP LONG ISLAND AND CT IN THE 50S. TEMPS WILL ALSO STAY IN
THE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH
WHILE AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WITH LOWERING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX
WITH AND TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH ALSO BUILDS IN. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE RIDGE. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ERODE THE COLD AIR
THAT WAS IN PLACE BEHIND THE PREVIOUS LOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH A WARM FRONT AND
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MOVING IN WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL...FORECAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.

MVFR WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS EVENING...THEN IFR
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER 6Z. IFR WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT WESTERN TERMINALS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TO LOW TO
REFLECT IN TAFS.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING. WINDS
THEN BECOME S-SSE AT UNDER 10KT BY MID-LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS INCREASE TO S 10-15KT EARLY-MID THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LLWS PROBABLE AT KJFK/KISP OVERNIGHT...AND THEN IS LIKELY AT
AROUND 18-19ZZ AT KISP/KBDR/KGON AND AT 22Z AT ALL BUT
KSWF/KHPN/KTEB. WINDS AT 2000 FT INCREASE TO 55-65 KT AT CT/LONG
ISLAND TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO 45-55KT AT NYC
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT..MVFR/IFR OR LOWER IN SHRA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. LLWS LIKELY EASTERN TERMINALS AND POSSIBLE CITY
TERMINALS THURSDAY EVENING. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
.FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CHANCE MVFR WITH IN ANY -SHRA/-SHSN. N-NE
WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND THEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY. THAT FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS ON FRIDAY.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
ON THE SS BAYS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON
THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST.
ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A
WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LINGER INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO
MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ345.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 252034
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
434 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...AND WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN NYC AND AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.
PRECIPITATION IS LIGHT...AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR SO THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EAST TONIGHT...AND MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME
RIGHT RAIN PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THAT...WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO LIFT
TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE THROUGH Y
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SFC
DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE LOW 40S...CAN
EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP...AS THE WARM AND MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE
RELATIVE COLDER OCEAN WATERS.

WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN ADDITION TO THE FOG.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...CAN EXPECT ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREAS
OF ADVECTION FOG WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS WELL...WITH
VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOME AREAS NEAR THE COASTS POSSIBLY DROPPING
BELOW A MILE.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIFT INTO
THE REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER WESTERN ZONES...WHERE
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF STORMS
OVER EASTERN ZONES DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE.

COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING AS THOSE AREAS WILL NEAR THE FRONT.
BY AFTERNOON...MOST SHOWERS SHOULD BE DONE EXPECT FOR AREAS ALONG
THE COAST.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S IN/AROUND NYC...BUT FOG
WILL KEEP LONG ISLAND AND CT IN THE 50S. TEMPS WILL ALSO STAY IN
THE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH
WHILE AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WITH LOWERING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX
WITH AND TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH ALSO BUILDS IN. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE RIDGE. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ERODE THE COLD AIR
THAT WAS IN PLACE BEHIND THE PREVIOUS LOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH A WARM FRONT AND
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MOVING IN WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL...FORECAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.

-RA OVERSPREADING THE REGION. THIS IS PROGGED TO REACH THE METRO
AFTER 20Z. MAINLY VFR CIGS ALL THE WAY TO KDCA...SO KEPT THE TAFS
VFR EXCEPT FOR MVFR VSBY THIS AFTERNOON.

ALL DATA SUGGEST CIGS AND VSBY LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE 23-02Z
TIME PERIOD...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR TONIGHT AND THRU 18Z
THU. TAFS INDICATE THIS IFR GENERALLY AROUND 2Z. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS...WITH A SLOWER TREND THE MORE
FAVORED DIRECTION AT THIS TIME.

SLY COMPONENT FLOW INTO THIS EVE...THEN VRB DIRECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND INTO THU MORNING. SSW FLOW
IN THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS THU AFTERNOON BASED ON THE CURRENT
FRONTAL FORECAST.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15KT POSSIBLE THRU
23Z. SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15KT POSSIBLE THRU
23Z. SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15KT POSSIBLE THRU
23Z. SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE THIS EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE
THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15KT POSSIBLE THRU
23Z. SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IFR OR LOWER IN SHRA.
.THU NIGHT..IFR OR LOWER TO START THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS BECOMING NW.
.FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...CHANCE MVFR WITH SHSN.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND THEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY. THAT FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS ON FRIDAY.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
ON THE SS BAYS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON
THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST.
ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A
WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LINGER INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO
MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 252034
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
434 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...AND WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN NYC AND AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.
PRECIPITATION IS LIGHT...AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR SO THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EAST TONIGHT...AND MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME
RIGHT RAIN PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THAT...WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO LIFT
TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE THROUGH Y
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SFC
DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE LOW 40S...CAN
EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP...AS THE WARM AND MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE
RELATIVE COLDER OCEAN WATERS.

WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN ADDITION TO THE FOG.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...CAN EXPECT ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREAS
OF ADVECTION FOG WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS WELL...WITH
VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOME AREAS NEAR THE COASTS POSSIBLY DROPPING
BELOW A MILE.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIFT INTO
THE REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER WESTERN ZONES...WHERE
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF STORMS
OVER EASTERN ZONES DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE.

COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING AS THOSE AREAS WILL NEAR THE FRONT.
BY AFTERNOON...MOST SHOWERS SHOULD BE DONE EXPECT FOR AREAS ALONG
THE COAST.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S IN/AROUND NYC...BUT FOG
WILL KEEP LONG ISLAND AND CT IN THE 50S. TEMPS WILL ALSO STAY IN
THE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH
WHILE AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WITH LOWERING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX
WITH AND TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH ALSO BUILDS IN. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE RIDGE. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ERODE THE COLD AIR
THAT WAS IN PLACE BEHIND THE PREVIOUS LOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH A WARM FRONT AND
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MOVING IN WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL...FORECAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.

-RA OVERSPREADING THE REGION. THIS IS PROGGED TO REACH THE METRO
AFTER 20Z. MAINLY VFR CIGS ALL THE WAY TO KDCA...SO KEPT THE TAFS
VFR EXCEPT FOR MVFR VSBY THIS AFTERNOON.

ALL DATA SUGGEST CIGS AND VSBY LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE 23-02Z
TIME PERIOD...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR TONIGHT AND THRU 18Z
THU. TAFS INDICATE THIS IFR GENERALLY AROUND 2Z. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS...WITH A SLOWER TREND THE MORE
FAVORED DIRECTION AT THIS TIME.

SLY COMPONENT FLOW INTO THIS EVE...THEN VRB DIRECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND INTO THU MORNING. SSW FLOW
IN THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS THU AFTERNOON BASED ON THE CURRENT
FRONTAL FORECAST.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15KT POSSIBLE THRU
23Z. SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15KT POSSIBLE THRU
23Z. SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15KT POSSIBLE THRU
23Z. SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE THIS EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE
THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15KT POSSIBLE THRU
23Z. SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IFR OR LOWER IN SHRA.
.THU NIGHT..IFR OR LOWER TO START THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS BECOMING NW.
.FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...CHANCE MVFR WITH SHSN.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND THEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY. THAT FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS ON FRIDAY.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
ON THE SS BAYS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON
THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST.
ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A
WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LINGER INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO
MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 252008
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
408 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...AND WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN NYC AND AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.
PRECIP IS LIGHT...AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF RAIN OR SO THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST TONIGHT...AND MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME RIGHT
RAIN PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THAT...WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO LIFT
TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE THROUGH Y
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SFC
DEWPOINTS RISING THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE LOW 40S...CAN EXPECT
FOG TO DEVELOP...AS THE WARM AND MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE RELATIVE
COLDER OCEAN WATERS.

WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN ADDITION TO THE FOG.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...CAN EXPECT ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREAS
OF ADVECTION FOG WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS WELL...WITH
VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOME AREAS NEAR THE COASTS POSSIBLY DROPPING
BELOW A MILE.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIFT INTO
THE REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER WESTERN ZONES...WHERE
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF STORMS
OVER EASTERN ZONES DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE.

COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING AS THOSE AREAS WILL NEAR THE FRONT.
BY AFTERNOON...MOST SHOWERS SHOULD BE DONE EXPECT FOR AREAS ALONG
THE COAST.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S IN/AROUND NYC...BUT FOG
WILL KEEP LONG ISLAND AND CT IN THE 50S. TEMPS WILL ALSO STAY IN
THE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WITH CAA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH
WHILE AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WITH LOWERING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX
WITH AND TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH ALSO BUILDS IN. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE RIDGE. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ERODE THE COLD AIR
THAT WAS IN PLACE BEHIND THE PREVIOUS LOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH A WARM FRONT AND
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MOVING IN WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL...FORECAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THRU THU.

-RA SPREADING NEWD FROM ERN PA AT 1730Z. THIS IS PROGGED TO REACH
THE METRO AFT 19Z. VFR CIGS ALL THE WAY TO KDCA...SO KEPT THE TAFS
VFR EXCEPT FOR MVFR VSBY THIS AFTN.

ALL DATA SUGGEST CIGS AND VSBY LWR SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE 23-02Z
TIME PERIOD...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR TNGT AND THRU 18Z THU.
TAFS INDICATE THIS IFR GENERALLY AT 0Z. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
TIMING ADJUSTMENTS...WITH A SLOWER TREND THE MORE FAVORED
DIRECTION ATTM.

SLY COMPONENT FLOW INTO THIS EVE...THEN VRB DIRECTION INVOF THE
WARM FRONT TNGT AND INTO THU MRNG. SSW FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR
DEVELOPS THU AFTN BASED ON THE CURRENT FRONTAL FCST.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 22.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.REST OF THU...IFR OR LWR WITH SSW FLOW.
.THU NGT...CDFNT PASSES OVERNIGHT. IFR OR LWR THEN COND IMPROVE
BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS BECOMING NW.
.FRI...VFR WITH NW FLOW.
.SAT...CHC MVFR WITH SHSN. NNW FLOW.
.SUN...VFR WITH LGT AND VRB WINDS.
.MON...MAINLY VFR WITH S/SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND THEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY. THAT FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS ON FRIDAY.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH SHORE
BAYS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDS ON THE SS
BAYS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST.
ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A
WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LINGER INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO
MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 252008
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
408 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...AND WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN NYC AND AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.
PRECIP IS LIGHT...AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF RAIN OR SO THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST TONIGHT...AND MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME RIGHT
RAIN PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THAT...WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO LIFT
TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE THROUGH Y
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SFC
DEWPOINTS RISING THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE LOW 40S...CAN EXPECT
FOG TO DEVELOP...AS THE WARM AND MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE RELATIVE
COLDER OCEAN WATERS.

WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN ADDITION TO THE FOG.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...CAN EXPECT ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREAS
OF ADVECTION FOG WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS WELL...WITH
VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOME AREAS NEAR THE COASTS POSSIBLY DROPPING
BELOW A MILE.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIFT INTO
THE REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER WESTERN ZONES...WHERE
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF STORMS
OVER EASTERN ZONES DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE.

COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING AS THOSE AREAS WILL NEAR THE FRONT.
BY AFTERNOON...MOST SHOWERS SHOULD BE DONE EXPECT FOR AREAS ALONG
THE COAST.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S IN/AROUND NYC...BUT FOG
WILL KEEP LONG ISLAND AND CT IN THE 50S. TEMPS WILL ALSO STAY IN
THE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WITH CAA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH
WHILE AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WITH LOWERING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX
WITH AND TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH ALSO BUILDS IN. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE RIDGE. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ERODE THE COLD AIR
THAT WAS IN PLACE BEHIND THE PREVIOUS LOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH A WARM FRONT AND
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MOVING IN WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL...FORECAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THRU THU.

-RA SPREADING NEWD FROM ERN PA AT 1730Z. THIS IS PROGGED TO REACH
THE METRO AFT 19Z. VFR CIGS ALL THE WAY TO KDCA...SO KEPT THE TAFS
VFR EXCEPT FOR MVFR VSBY THIS AFTN.

ALL DATA SUGGEST CIGS AND VSBY LWR SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE 23-02Z
TIME PERIOD...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR TNGT AND THRU 18Z THU.
TAFS INDICATE THIS IFR GENERALLY AT 0Z. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
TIMING ADJUSTMENTS...WITH A SLOWER TREND THE MORE FAVORED
DIRECTION ATTM.

SLY COMPONENT FLOW INTO THIS EVE...THEN VRB DIRECTION INVOF THE
WARM FRONT TNGT AND INTO THU MRNG. SSW FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR
DEVELOPS THU AFTN BASED ON THE CURRENT FRONTAL FCST.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 22.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.REST OF THU...IFR OR LWR WITH SSW FLOW.
.THU NGT...CDFNT PASSES OVERNIGHT. IFR OR LWR THEN COND IMPROVE
BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS BECOMING NW.
.FRI...VFR WITH NW FLOW.
.SAT...CHC MVFR WITH SHSN. NNW FLOW.
.SUN...VFR WITH LGT AND VRB WINDS.
.MON...MAINLY VFR WITH S/SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND THEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY. THAT FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS ON FRIDAY.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH SHORE
BAYS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDS ON THE SS
BAYS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST.
ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A
WHILE SATURDAY.

THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LINGER INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO
MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251747
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
147 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH
TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES STILL INFLUENCING THE LOCAL AREA...AS DRY CONDS ARE IN
PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FROM 5-10 DEGREES BELOW FORECAST. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS ARE ALSO RUNNING WARMER THAN FORECAST. WILL GO
AHEAD AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS...AND WILL RAISE MAX TEMPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S.

LINE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER SE PA AND SW NJ CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE DRIER AIR OVER THE
AREA...IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR PRECIP OVER WESTERN ZONES TO
REACH THE GROUND...BUT DO FEEL CONFIDENT IN CONTINUING WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT CROSSES THE CWA TONIGHT...AND WITH STRONGER LIFT
RIGHT AHEAD OF IT...THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES OF OVERRUNNING/RAIN FOR
THE NIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING...FOG EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THE NIGHT NON-DIURNAL WITH WAA.

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE ROUGHLY MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH LIFT SUPPLIED
BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS
LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. MAV/MET MOS WERE REASONABLY SIMILAR FOR HIGH TEMPS...SO
USED A BLEND AGAIN.

THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE ADVECTION OF
DEWPOINTS OVER 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NEARBY WATER SURFACE
TEMPS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PRECEDES THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH...AND REMAIN WEAK FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTERWARDS BEFORE STRENGTHENING FROM THE NORTH. RAIN IS
LIKELY...FOCUSED NEAR THE COLD FRONT. ELEVATED CAPE FORECAST TO
STILL BE PRESENT...SO ISO THUNDER DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL/EASTERN US TROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WESTERN US RIDGING BUILDS. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN SUN NIGHT BEFORE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGY...AND
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST/TAPER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. BASED ON SLOWER MODEL TRENDS THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND BLOCKY UPPER PATTERN IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT/SAT...PARTICULARLY FOR
LI/CT. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS
(WEAKER SIGNAL IN GEFS)...SEEN IN 00Z OPERATIONAL GEM...WITH HINTS
OF IT AT 84 HRS IN 00Z NAM. LOCATION OF ANY INVERTED TROUGH WOULD BE
KEY TO WHERE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY WOULD RESIDE DURING
THIS TIME...BUT EVEN WITHOUT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOCUS...MID-
LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL INSTABILITY WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPER
OF LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

CAA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
POOL.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
SUNDAY AND DRYING BUT COOL CONDS. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND PIVOTS THROUGH THE NE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THRU THU.

-RA SPREADING NEWD FROM ERN PA AT 1730Z. THIS IS PROGGED TO REACH
THE METRO AFT 19Z. VFR CIGS ALL THE WAY TO KDCA...SO KEPT THE TAFS
VFR EXCEPT FOR MVFR VSBY THIS AFTN.

ALL DATA SUGGEST CIGS AND VSBY LWR SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE 23-02Z
TIME PERIOD...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR TNGT AND THRU 18Z THU.
TAFS INDICATE THIS IFR GENERALLY AT 0Z. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
TIMING ADJUSTMENTS...WITH A SLOWER TREND THE MORE FAVORED
DIRECTION ATTM.

SLY COMPONENT FLOW INTO THIS EVE...THEN VRB DIRECTION INVOF THE
WARM FRONT TNGT AND INTO THU MRNG. SSW FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR
DEVELOPS THU AFTN BASED ON THE CURRENT FRONTAL FCST.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 22.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.REST OF THU...IFR OR LWR WITH SSW FLOW.
.THU NGT...CDFNT PASSES OVERNIGHT. IFR OR LWR THEN COND IMPROVE
BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS BECOMING NW.
.FRI...VFR WITH NW FLOW.
.SAT...CHC MVFR WITH SHSN. NNW FLOW.
.SUN...VFR WITH LGT AND VRB WINDS.
.MON...MAINLY VFR WITH S/SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS
ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...BUT POSSIBLY ON SOME OF THE OTHER WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL PROBABLY BUILD UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING A
LATE 3RD PERIOD EVENT...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING SCA ATTM. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INITIAL DROP IN WIND
SPEEDS BEFORE THEY PICK UP FROM THE NORTH LATE AT NIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO THE CHANCE OF DENSE FOG FORMATION ON THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDE OF HIGH SOUTHERLY SWELLS. MARGINAL SCA
CONDS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WITH GUSTY
NW FLOW...CAA...AND RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT
IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 251747
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
147 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH
TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES STILL INFLUENCING THE LOCAL AREA...AS DRY CONDS ARE IN
PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FROM 5-10 DEGREES BELOW FORECAST. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS ARE ALSO RUNNING WARMER THAN FORECAST. WILL GO
AHEAD AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS...AND WILL RAISE MAX TEMPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S.

LINE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER SE PA AND SW NJ CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE DRIER AIR OVER THE
AREA...IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR PRECIP OVER WESTERN ZONES TO
REACH THE GROUND...BUT DO FEEL CONFIDENT IN CONTINUING WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT CROSSES THE CWA TONIGHT...AND WITH STRONGER LIFT
RIGHT AHEAD OF IT...THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES OF OVERRUNNING/RAIN FOR
THE NIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING...FOG EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THE NIGHT NON-DIURNAL WITH WAA.

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE ROUGHLY MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH LIFT SUPPLIED
BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS
LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. MAV/MET MOS WERE REASONABLY SIMILAR FOR HIGH TEMPS...SO
USED A BLEND AGAIN.

THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE ADVECTION OF
DEWPOINTS OVER 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NEARBY WATER SURFACE
TEMPS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PRECEDES THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH...AND REMAIN WEAK FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTERWARDS BEFORE STRENGTHENING FROM THE NORTH. RAIN IS
LIKELY...FOCUSED NEAR THE COLD FRONT. ELEVATED CAPE FORECAST TO
STILL BE PRESENT...SO ISO THUNDER DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL/EASTERN US TROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WESTERN US RIDGING BUILDS. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN SUN NIGHT BEFORE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGY...AND
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST/TAPER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. BASED ON SLOWER MODEL TRENDS THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND BLOCKY UPPER PATTERN IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT/SAT...PARTICULARLY FOR
LI/CT. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS
(WEAKER SIGNAL IN GEFS)...SEEN IN 00Z OPERATIONAL GEM...WITH HINTS
OF IT AT 84 HRS IN 00Z NAM. LOCATION OF ANY INVERTED TROUGH WOULD BE
KEY TO WHERE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY WOULD RESIDE DURING
THIS TIME...BUT EVEN WITHOUT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOCUS...MID-
LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL INSTABILITY WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPER
OF LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

CAA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
POOL.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
SUNDAY AND DRYING BUT COOL CONDS. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND PIVOTS THROUGH THE NE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THRU THU.

-RA SPREADING NEWD FROM ERN PA AT 1730Z. THIS IS PROGGED TO REACH
THE METRO AFT 19Z. VFR CIGS ALL THE WAY TO KDCA...SO KEPT THE TAFS
VFR EXCEPT FOR MVFR VSBY THIS AFTN.

ALL DATA SUGGEST CIGS AND VSBY LWR SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE 23-02Z
TIME PERIOD...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR TNGT AND THRU 18Z THU.
TAFS INDICATE THIS IFR GENERALLY AT 0Z. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
TIMING ADJUSTMENTS...WITH A SLOWER TREND THE MORE FAVORED
DIRECTION ATTM.

SLY COMPONENT FLOW INTO THIS EVE...THEN VRB DIRECTION INVOF THE
WARM FRONT TNGT AND INTO THU MRNG. SSW FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR
DEVELOPS THU AFTN BASED ON THE CURRENT FRONTAL FCST.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 22.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.REST OF THU...IFR OR LWR WITH SSW FLOW.
.THU NGT...CDFNT PASSES OVERNIGHT. IFR OR LWR THEN COND IMPROVE
BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS BECOMING NW.
.FRI...VFR WITH NW FLOW.
.SAT...CHC MVFR WITH SHSN. NNW FLOW.
.SUN...VFR WITH LGT AND VRB WINDS.
.MON...MAINLY VFR WITH S/SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS
ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...BUT POSSIBLY ON SOME OF THE OTHER WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL PROBABLY BUILD UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING A
LATE 3RD PERIOD EVENT...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING SCA ATTM. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INITIAL DROP IN WIND
SPEEDS BEFORE THEY PICK UP FROM THE NORTH LATE AT NIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO THE CHANCE OF DENSE FOG FORMATION ON THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDE OF HIGH SOUTHERLY SWELLS. MARGINAL SCA
CONDS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WITH GUSTY
NW FLOW...CAA...AND RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT
IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251747
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
147 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH
TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES STILL INFLUENCING THE LOCAL AREA...AS DRY CONDS ARE IN
PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FROM 5-10 DEGREES BELOW FORECAST. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS ARE ALSO RUNNING WARMER THAN FORECAST. WILL GO
AHEAD AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS...AND WILL RAISE MAX TEMPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S.

LINE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER SE PA AND SW NJ CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE DRIER AIR OVER THE
AREA...IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR PRECIP OVER WESTERN ZONES TO
REACH THE GROUND...BUT DO FEEL CONFIDENT IN CONTINUING WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT CROSSES THE CWA TONIGHT...AND WITH STRONGER LIFT
RIGHT AHEAD OF IT...THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES OF OVERRUNNING/RAIN FOR
THE NIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING...FOG EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THE NIGHT NON-DIURNAL WITH WAA.

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE ROUGHLY MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH LIFT SUPPLIED
BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS
LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. MAV/MET MOS WERE REASONABLY SIMILAR FOR HIGH TEMPS...SO
USED A BLEND AGAIN.

THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE ADVECTION OF
DEWPOINTS OVER 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NEARBY WATER SURFACE
TEMPS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PRECEDES THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH...AND REMAIN WEAK FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTERWARDS BEFORE STRENGTHENING FROM THE NORTH. RAIN IS
LIKELY...FOCUSED NEAR THE COLD FRONT. ELEVATED CAPE FORECAST TO
STILL BE PRESENT...SO ISO THUNDER DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL/EASTERN US TROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WESTERN US RIDGING BUILDS. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN SUN NIGHT BEFORE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGY...AND
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST/TAPER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. BASED ON SLOWER MODEL TRENDS THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND BLOCKY UPPER PATTERN IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT/SAT...PARTICULARLY FOR
LI/CT. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS
(WEAKER SIGNAL IN GEFS)...SEEN IN 00Z OPERATIONAL GEM...WITH HINTS
OF IT AT 84 HRS IN 00Z NAM. LOCATION OF ANY INVERTED TROUGH WOULD BE
KEY TO WHERE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY WOULD RESIDE DURING
THIS TIME...BUT EVEN WITHOUT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOCUS...MID-
LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL INSTABILITY WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPER
OF LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

CAA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
POOL.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
SUNDAY AND DRYING BUT COOL CONDS. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND PIVOTS THROUGH THE NE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THRU THU.

-RA SPREADING NEWD FROM ERN PA AT 1730Z. THIS IS PROGGED TO REACH
THE METRO AFT 19Z. VFR CIGS ALL THE WAY TO KDCA...SO KEPT THE TAFS
VFR EXCEPT FOR MVFR VSBY THIS AFTN.

ALL DATA SUGGEST CIGS AND VSBY LWR SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE 23-02Z
TIME PERIOD...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR TNGT AND THRU 18Z THU.
TAFS INDICATE THIS IFR GENERALLY AT 0Z. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
TIMING ADJUSTMENTS...WITH A SLOWER TREND THE MORE FAVORED
DIRECTION ATTM.

SLY COMPONENT FLOW INTO THIS EVE...THEN VRB DIRECTION INVOF THE
WARM FRONT TNGT AND INTO THU MRNG. SSW FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR
DEVELOPS THU AFTN BASED ON THE CURRENT FRONTAL FCST.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 22.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.REST OF THU...IFR OR LWR WITH SSW FLOW.
.THU NGT...CDFNT PASSES OVERNIGHT. IFR OR LWR THEN COND IMPROVE
BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS BECOMING NW.
.FRI...VFR WITH NW FLOW.
.SAT...CHC MVFR WITH SHSN. NNW FLOW.
.SUN...VFR WITH LGT AND VRB WINDS.
.MON...MAINLY VFR WITH S/SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS
ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...BUT POSSIBLY ON SOME OF THE OTHER WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL PROBABLY BUILD UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING A
LATE 3RD PERIOD EVENT...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING SCA ATTM. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INITIAL DROP IN WIND
SPEEDS BEFORE THEY PICK UP FROM THE NORTH LATE AT NIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO THE CHANCE OF DENSE FOG FORMATION ON THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDE OF HIGH SOUTHERLY SWELLS. MARGINAL SCA
CONDS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WITH GUSTY
NW FLOW...CAA...AND RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT
IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 251747
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
147 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH
TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES STILL INFLUENCING THE LOCAL AREA...AS DRY CONDS ARE IN
PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FROM 5-10 DEGREES BELOW FORECAST. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS ARE ALSO RUNNING WARMER THAN FORECAST. WILL GO
AHEAD AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS...AND WILL RAISE MAX TEMPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S.

LINE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER SE PA AND SW NJ CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE DRIER AIR OVER THE
AREA...IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR PRECIP OVER WESTERN ZONES TO
REACH THE GROUND...BUT DO FEEL CONFIDENT IN CONTINUING WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT CROSSES THE CWA TONIGHT...AND WITH STRONGER LIFT
RIGHT AHEAD OF IT...THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES OF OVERRUNNING/RAIN FOR
THE NIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING...FOG EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THE NIGHT NON-DIURNAL WITH WAA.

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE ROUGHLY MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH LIFT SUPPLIED
BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS
LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. MAV/MET MOS WERE REASONABLY SIMILAR FOR HIGH TEMPS...SO
USED A BLEND AGAIN.

THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE ADVECTION OF
DEWPOINTS OVER 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NEARBY WATER SURFACE
TEMPS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PRECEDES THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH...AND REMAIN WEAK FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTERWARDS BEFORE STRENGTHENING FROM THE NORTH. RAIN IS
LIKELY...FOCUSED NEAR THE COLD FRONT. ELEVATED CAPE FORECAST TO
STILL BE PRESENT...SO ISO THUNDER DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL/EASTERN US TROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WESTERN US RIDGING BUILDS. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN SUN NIGHT BEFORE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGY...AND
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST/TAPER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. BASED ON SLOWER MODEL TRENDS THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND BLOCKY UPPER PATTERN IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT/SAT...PARTICULARLY FOR
LI/CT. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS
(WEAKER SIGNAL IN GEFS)...SEEN IN 00Z OPERATIONAL GEM...WITH HINTS
OF IT AT 84 HRS IN 00Z NAM. LOCATION OF ANY INVERTED TROUGH WOULD BE
KEY TO WHERE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY WOULD RESIDE DURING
THIS TIME...BUT EVEN WITHOUT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOCUS...MID-
LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL INSTABILITY WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPER
OF LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

CAA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
POOL.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
SUNDAY AND DRYING BUT COOL CONDS. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND PIVOTS THROUGH THE NE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THRU THU.

-RA SPREADING NEWD FROM ERN PA AT 1730Z. THIS IS PROGGED TO REACH
THE METRO AFT 19Z. VFR CIGS ALL THE WAY TO KDCA...SO KEPT THE TAFS
VFR EXCEPT FOR MVFR VSBY THIS AFTN.

ALL DATA SUGGEST CIGS AND VSBY LWR SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE 23-02Z
TIME PERIOD...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR TNGT AND THRU 18Z THU.
TAFS INDICATE THIS IFR GENERALLY AT 0Z. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
TIMING ADJUSTMENTS...WITH A SLOWER TREND THE MORE FAVORED
DIRECTION ATTM.

SLY COMPONENT FLOW INTO THIS EVE...THEN VRB DIRECTION INVOF THE
WARM FRONT TNGT AND INTO THU MRNG. SSW FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR
DEVELOPS THU AFTN BASED ON THE CURRENT FRONTAL FCST.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 22.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.REST OF THU...IFR OR LWR WITH SSW FLOW.
.THU NGT...CDFNT PASSES OVERNIGHT. IFR OR LWR THEN COND IMPROVE
BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS BECOMING NW.
.FRI...VFR WITH NW FLOW.
.SAT...CHC MVFR WITH SHSN. NNW FLOW.
.SUN...VFR WITH LGT AND VRB WINDS.
.MON...MAINLY VFR WITH S/SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS
ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...BUT POSSIBLY ON SOME OF THE OTHER WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL PROBABLY BUILD UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING A
LATE 3RD PERIOD EVENT...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING SCA ATTM. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INITIAL DROP IN WIND
SPEEDS BEFORE THEY PICK UP FROM THE NORTH LATE AT NIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO THE CHANCE OF DENSE FOG FORMATION ON THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDE OF HIGH SOUTHERLY SWELLS. MARGINAL SCA
CONDS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WITH GUSTY
NW FLOW...CAA...AND RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT
IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251639
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1239 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH
TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES STILL INFLUENCING THE LOCAL AREA...AS DRY CONDS ARE IN
PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FROM 5-10 DEGREES BELOW FORECAST. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS ARE ALSO RUNNING WARMER THAN FORECAST. WILL GO
AHEAD AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS...AND WILL RAISE MAX TEMPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S.

LINE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER SE PA AND SW NJ CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE DRIER AIR OVER THE
AREA...IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR PRECIP OVER WESTERN ZONES TO
REACH THE GROUND...BUT DO FEEL CONFIDENT IN CONTINUING WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT CROSSES THE CWA TONIGHT...AND WITH STRONGER LIFT
RIGHT AHEAD OF IT...THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES OF OVERRUNNING/RAIN FOR
THE NIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING...FOG EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THE NIGHT NON-DIURNAL WITH WAA.

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE ROUGHLY MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH LIFT SUPPLIED
BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS
LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. MAV/MET MOS WERE REASONABLY SIMILAR FOR HIGH TEMPS...SO
USED A BLEND AGAIN.

THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE ADVECTION OF
DEWPOINTS OVER 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NEARBY WATER SURFACE
TEMPS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PRECEDES THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH...AND REMAIN WEAK FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTERWARDS BEFORE STRENGTHENING FROM THE NORTH. RAIN IS
LIKELY...FOCUSED NEAR THE COLD FRONT. ELEVATED CAPE FORECAST TO
STILL BE PRESENT...SO ISO THUNDER DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL/EASTERN US TROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WESTERN US RIDGING BUILDS. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN SUN NIGHT BEFORE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGY...AND
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST/TAPER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. BASED ON SLOWER MODEL TRENDS THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND BLOCKY UPPER PATTERN IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT/SAT...PARTICULARLY FOR
LI/CT. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS
(WEAKER SIGNAL IN GEFS)...SEEN IN 00Z OPERATIONAL GEM...WITH HINTS
OF IT AT 84 HRS IN 00Z NAM. LOCATION OF ANY INVERTED TROUGH WOULD BE
KEY TO WHERE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY WOULD RESIDE DURING
THIS TIME...BUT EVEN WITHOUT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOCUS...MID-
LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL INSTABILITY WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPER
OF LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

CAA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
POOL.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
SUNDAY AND DRYING BUT COOL CONDS. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND PIVOTS THROUGH THE NE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. CEILINGS DECREASE TO 3500-6000FT AFTER
19Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY TEMPO -RA THAT OCCURS BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z THU. RA BECOMES PREVAILING THEREAFTER...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AS WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN LIFR...MAINLY
AFTER 00Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LLWS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH THE WARM FRONT. WINDS AT 2000 FT WILL BE AROUND 50
KT.

    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z. LLWS BETWEEN 03Z- 08Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG.
LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR OR
LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS
ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...BUT POSSIBLY ON SOME OF THE OTHER WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL PROBABLY BUILD UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING A
LATE 3RD PERIOD EVENT...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING SCA ATTM. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INITIAL DROP IN WIND
SPEEDS BEFORE THEY PICK UP FROM THE NORTH LATE AT NIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO THE CHANCE OF DENSE FOG FORMATION ON THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDE OF HIGH SOUTHERLY SWELLS. MARGINAL SCA
CONDS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WITH GUSTY
NW FLOW...CAA...AND RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT
IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JMC/JP
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251639
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1239 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH
TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES STILL INFLUENCING THE LOCAL AREA...AS DRY CONDS ARE IN
PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FROM 5-10 DEGREES BELOW FORECAST. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS ARE ALSO RUNNING WARMER THAN FORECAST. WILL GO
AHEAD AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS...AND WILL RAISE MAX TEMPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S.

LINE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER SE PA AND SW NJ CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE DRIER AIR OVER THE
AREA...IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR PRECIP OVER WESTERN ZONES TO
REACH THE GROUND...BUT DO FEEL CONFIDENT IN CONTINUING WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT CROSSES THE CWA TONIGHT...AND WITH STRONGER LIFT
RIGHT AHEAD OF IT...THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES OF OVERRUNNING/RAIN FOR
THE NIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING...FOG EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THE NIGHT NON-DIURNAL WITH WAA.

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE ROUGHLY MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH LIFT SUPPLIED
BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS
LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. MAV/MET MOS WERE REASONABLY SIMILAR FOR HIGH TEMPS...SO
USED A BLEND AGAIN.

THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE ADVECTION OF
DEWPOINTS OVER 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NEARBY WATER SURFACE
TEMPS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PRECEDES THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH...AND REMAIN WEAK FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTERWARDS BEFORE STRENGTHENING FROM THE NORTH. RAIN IS
LIKELY...FOCUSED NEAR THE COLD FRONT. ELEVATED CAPE FORECAST TO
STILL BE PRESENT...SO ISO THUNDER DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL/EASTERN US TROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WESTERN US RIDGING BUILDS. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN SUN NIGHT BEFORE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGY...AND
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST/TAPER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. BASED ON SLOWER MODEL TRENDS THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND BLOCKY UPPER PATTERN IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT/SAT...PARTICULARLY FOR
LI/CT. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS
(WEAKER SIGNAL IN GEFS)...SEEN IN 00Z OPERATIONAL GEM...WITH HINTS
OF IT AT 84 HRS IN 00Z NAM. LOCATION OF ANY INVERTED TROUGH WOULD BE
KEY TO WHERE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY WOULD RESIDE DURING
THIS TIME...BUT EVEN WITHOUT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOCUS...MID-
LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL INSTABILITY WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPER
OF LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

CAA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
POOL.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
SUNDAY AND DRYING BUT COOL CONDS. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND PIVOTS THROUGH THE NE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. CEILINGS DECREASE TO 3500-6000FT AFTER
19Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY TEMPO -RA THAT OCCURS BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z THU. RA BECOMES PREVAILING THEREAFTER...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AS WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN LIFR...MAINLY
AFTER 00Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LLWS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH THE WARM FRONT. WINDS AT 2000 FT WILL BE AROUND 50
KT.

    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z. LLWS BETWEEN 03Z- 08Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG.
LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR OR
LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS
ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...BUT POSSIBLY ON SOME OF THE OTHER WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL PROBABLY BUILD UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING A
LATE 3RD PERIOD EVENT...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING SCA ATTM. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INITIAL DROP IN WIND
SPEEDS BEFORE THEY PICK UP FROM THE NORTH LATE AT NIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO THE CHANCE OF DENSE FOG FORMATION ON THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDE OF HIGH SOUTHERLY SWELLS. MARGINAL SCA
CONDS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WITH GUSTY
NW FLOW...CAA...AND RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT
IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JMC/JP
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 251439
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1039 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER SE PA AND INTO THE DELMARVA SLOWLY
TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. BASED ON TIMING OF THE MOVEMENT OF
THESE SHOWERS AND BASED ON LATEST RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE...WILL
PUSH BACK START TIME OF PRECIP UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...AS SHOWERS
NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO WESTERN ZONES UNTIL AFTER 18Z.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THESE SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHES.

A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WAS USED FOR HIGHS...AVERAGING 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT CROSSES THE CWA TONIGHT...AND WITH STRONGER LIFT
RIGHT AHEAD OF IT...THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES OF OVERRUNNING/RAIN FOR
THE NIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING...FOG EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THE NIGHT NON-DIURNAL WITH WAA.

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE ROUGHLY MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH LIFT SUPPLIED
BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS
LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. MAV/MET MOS WERE REASONABLY SIMILAR FOR HIGH TEMPS...SO
USED A BLEND AGAIN.

THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE ADVECTION OF
DEWPOINTS OVER 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NEARBY WATER SURFACE
TEMPS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PRECEDES THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH...AND REMAIN WEAK FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTERWARDS BEFORE STRENGTHENING FROM THE NORTH. RAIN IS
LIKELY...FOCUSED NEAR THE COLD FRONT. ELEVATED CAPE FORECAST TO
STILL BE PRESENT...SO ISO THUNDER DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL/EASTERN US TROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WESTERN US RIDGING BUILDS. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN SUN NIGHT BEFORE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGY...AND
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST/TAPER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. BASED ON SLOWER MODEL TRENDS THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND BLOCKY UPPER PATTERN IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT/SAT...PARTICULARLY FOR
LI/CT. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS
(WEAKER SIGNAL IN GEFS)...SEEN IN 00Z OPERATIONAL GEM...WITH HINTS
OF IT AT 84 HRS IN 00Z NAM. LOCATION OF ANY INVERTED TROUGH WOULD BE
KEY TO WHERE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY WOULD RESIDE DURING
THIS TIME...BUT EVEN WITHOUT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOCUS...MID-
LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL INSTABILITY WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPER
OF LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

CAA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
POOL.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
SUNDAY AND DRYING BUT COOL CONDS. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND PIVOTS THROUGH THE NE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. CEILINGS DECREASE TO 3500-6000FT AFTER
19Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY TEMPO -RA THAT OCCURS BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z THU. RA BECOMES PREVAILING THEREAFTER...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AS WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN LIFR...MAINLY
AFTER 00Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LLWS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH THE WARM FRONT. WINDS AT 2000 FT WILL BE AROUND 50
KT.

    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z. LLWS BETWEEN 03Z- 08Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG.
LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR OR
LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS
ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...BUT POSSIBLY ON SOME OF THE OTHER WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL PROBABLY BUILD UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING A
LATE 3RD PERIOD EVENT...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING SCA ATTM. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INITIAL DROP IN WIND
SPEEDS BEFORE THEY PICK UP FROM THE NORTH LATE AT NIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO THE CHANCE OF DENSE FOG FORMATION ON THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDE OF HIGH SOUTHERLY SWELLS. MARGINAL SCA
CONDS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WITH GUSTY
NW FLOW...CAA...AND RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT
IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC/MPS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JMC/JP
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251439
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1039 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER SE PA AND INTO THE DELMARVA SLOWLY
TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. BASED ON TIMING OF THE MOVEMENT OF
THESE SHOWERS AND BASED ON LATEST RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE...WILL
PUSH BACK START TIME OF PRECIP UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...AS SHOWERS
NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO WESTERN ZONES UNTIL AFTER 18Z.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THESE SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHES.

A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WAS USED FOR HIGHS...AVERAGING 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT CROSSES THE CWA TONIGHT...AND WITH STRONGER LIFT
RIGHT AHEAD OF IT...THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES OF OVERRUNNING/RAIN FOR
THE NIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING...FOG EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THE NIGHT NON-DIURNAL WITH WAA.

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE ROUGHLY MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH LIFT SUPPLIED
BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS
LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. MAV/MET MOS WERE REASONABLY SIMILAR FOR HIGH TEMPS...SO
USED A BLEND AGAIN.

THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE ADVECTION OF
DEWPOINTS OVER 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NEARBY WATER SURFACE
TEMPS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PRECEDES THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH...AND REMAIN WEAK FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTERWARDS BEFORE STRENGTHENING FROM THE NORTH. RAIN IS
LIKELY...FOCUSED NEAR THE COLD FRONT. ELEVATED CAPE FORECAST TO
STILL BE PRESENT...SO ISO THUNDER DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL/EASTERN US TROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WESTERN US RIDGING BUILDS. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN SUN NIGHT BEFORE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGY...AND
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST/TAPER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. BASED ON SLOWER MODEL TRENDS THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND BLOCKY UPPER PATTERN IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT/SAT...PARTICULARLY FOR
LI/CT. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS
(WEAKER SIGNAL IN GEFS)...SEEN IN 00Z OPERATIONAL GEM...WITH HINTS
OF IT AT 84 HRS IN 00Z NAM. LOCATION OF ANY INVERTED TROUGH WOULD BE
KEY TO WHERE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY WOULD RESIDE DURING
THIS TIME...BUT EVEN WITHOUT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOCUS...MID-
LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL INSTABILITY WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPER
OF LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

CAA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
POOL.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
SUNDAY AND DRYING BUT COOL CONDS. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND PIVOTS THROUGH THE NE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. CEILINGS DECREASE TO 3500-6000FT AFTER
19Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY TEMPO -RA THAT OCCURS BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z THU. RA BECOMES PREVAILING THEREAFTER...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AS WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN LIFR...MAINLY
AFTER 00Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LLWS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH THE WARM FRONT. WINDS AT 2000 FT WILL BE AROUND 50
KT.

    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z. LLWS BETWEEN 03Z- 08Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG.
LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR OR
LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS
ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...BUT POSSIBLY ON SOME OF THE OTHER WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL PROBABLY BUILD UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING A
LATE 3RD PERIOD EVENT...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING SCA ATTM. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INITIAL DROP IN WIND
SPEEDS BEFORE THEY PICK UP FROM THE NORTH LATE AT NIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO THE CHANCE OF DENSE FOG FORMATION ON THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDE OF HIGH SOUTHERLY SWELLS. MARGINAL SCA
CONDS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WITH GUSTY
NW FLOW...CAA...AND RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT
IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC/MPS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JMC/JP
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 251148
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
748 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...CLOUDS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY THICKER THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE BRING CHANCES OF RAIN PRIMARILY FROM MID-AFTERNOON ON.
RAIN LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDOWN.

A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WAS USED FOR HIGHS...AVERAGING 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT CROSSES THE CWA TONIGHT...AND WITH STRONGER LIFT
RIGHT AHEAD OF IT...THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES OF OVERRUNNING/RAIN FOR
THE NIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING...FOG EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THE NIGHT NON-DIURNAL WITH WAA.

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE ROUGHLY MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH LIFT SUPPLIED
BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS
LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. MAV/MET MOS WERE REASONABLY SIMILAR FOR HIGH TEMPS...SO
USED A BLEND AGAIN.

THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE ADVECTION OF
DEWPOINTS OVER 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NEARBY WATER SURFACE
TEMPS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PRECEDES THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH...AND REMAIN WEAK FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTERWARDS BEFORE STRENGTHENING FROM THE NORTH. RAIN IS
LIKELY...FOCUSED NEAR THE COLD FRONT. ELEVATED CAPE FORECAST TO
STILL BE PRESENT...SO ISO THUNDER DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL/EASTERN US TROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WESTERN US RIDGING BUILDS. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN SUN NIGHT BEFORE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGY...AND
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST/TAPER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. BASED ON SLOWER MODEL TRENDS THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND BLOCKY UPPER PATTERN IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT/SAT...PARTICULARLY FOR
LI/CT. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS
(WEAKER SIGNAL IN GEFS)...SEEN IN 00Z OPERATIONAL GEM...WITH HINTS
OF IT AT 84 HRS IN 00Z NAM. LOCATION OF ANY INVERTED TROUGH WOULD BE
KEY TO WHERE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY WOULD RESIDE DURING
THIS TIME...BUT EVEN WITHOUT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOCUS...MID-
LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL INSTABILITY WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPER
OF LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

CAA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
POOL.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
SUNDAY AND DRYING BUT COOL CONDS. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND PIVOTS THROUGH THE NE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. CEILINGS DECREASE TO 3500-6000FT AFTER
19Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY TEMPO -RA THAT OCCURS BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z THU. RA BECOMES PREVAILING THEREAFTER...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AS WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN LIFR ...MAINLY
AFTER 02Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LLWS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH THE WARM FRONT. WINDS AT 2000 FT WILL BE AROUND 50
KT.

    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT
RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z. LLWS BETWEEN 03Z- 08Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN
SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR OR
LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS
ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...BUT POSSIBLY ON SOME OF THE OTHER WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL PROBABLY BUILD UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING A
LATE 3RD PERIOD EVENT...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING SCA ATTM. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INITIAL DROP IN WIND
SPEEDS BEFORE THEY PICK UP FROM THE NORTH LATE AT NIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO THE CHANCE OF DENSE FOG FORMATION ON THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDE OF HIGH SOUTHERLY SWELLS. MARGINAL SCA
CONDS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WITH GUSTY
NW FLOW...CAA...AND RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT
IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251148
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
748 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...CLOUDS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY THICKER THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE BRING CHANCES OF RAIN PRIMARILY FROM MID-AFTERNOON ON.
RAIN LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDOWN.

A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WAS USED FOR HIGHS...AVERAGING 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT CROSSES THE CWA TONIGHT...AND WITH STRONGER LIFT
RIGHT AHEAD OF IT...THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES OF OVERRUNNING/RAIN FOR
THE NIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING...FOG EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THE NIGHT NON-DIURNAL WITH WAA.

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE ROUGHLY MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH LIFT SUPPLIED
BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS
LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. MAV/MET MOS WERE REASONABLY SIMILAR FOR HIGH TEMPS...SO
USED A BLEND AGAIN.

THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE ADVECTION OF
DEWPOINTS OVER 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NEARBY WATER SURFACE
TEMPS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PRECEDES THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH...AND REMAIN WEAK FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTERWARDS BEFORE STRENGTHENING FROM THE NORTH. RAIN IS
LIKELY...FOCUSED NEAR THE COLD FRONT. ELEVATED CAPE FORECAST TO
STILL BE PRESENT...SO ISO THUNDER DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL/EASTERN US TROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WESTERN US RIDGING BUILDS. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN SUN NIGHT BEFORE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGY...AND
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST/TAPER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. BASED ON SLOWER MODEL TRENDS THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND BLOCKY UPPER PATTERN IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT/SAT...PARTICULARLY FOR
LI/CT. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS
(WEAKER SIGNAL IN GEFS)...SEEN IN 00Z OPERATIONAL GEM...WITH HINTS
OF IT AT 84 HRS IN 00Z NAM. LOCATION OF ANY INVERTED TROUGH WOULD BE
KEY TO WHERE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY WOULD RESIDE DURING
THIS TIME...BUT EVEN WITHOUT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOCUS...MID-
LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL INSTABILITY WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPER
OF LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

CAA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
POOL.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
SUNDAY AND DRYING BUT COOL CONDS. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND PIVOTS THROUGH THE NE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. CEILINGS DECREASE TO 3500-6000FT AFTER
19Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY TEMPO -RA THAT OCCURS BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z THU. RA BECOMES PREVAILING THEREAFTER...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AS WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN LIFR ...MAINLY
AFTER 02Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LLWS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH THE WARM FRONT. WINDS AT 2000 FT WILL BE AROUND 50
KT.

    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT
RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z. LLWS BETWEEN 03Z- 08Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN
SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR OR
LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS
ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...BUT POSSIBLY ON SOME OF THE OTHER WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL PROBABLY BUILD UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING A
LATE 3RD PERIOD EVENT...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING SCA ATTM. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INITIAL DROP IN WIND
SPEEDS BEFORE THEY PICK UP FROM THE NORTH LATE AT NIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO THE CHANCE OF DENSE FOG FORMATION ON THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDE OF HIGH SOUTHERLY SWELLS. MARGINAL SCA
CONDS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WITH GUSTY
NW FLOW...CAA...AND RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT
IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 251148
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
748 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...CLOUDS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY THICKER THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE BRING CHANCES OF RAIN PRIMARILY FROM MID-AFTERNOON ON.
RAIN LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDOWN.

A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WAS USED FOR HIGHS...AVERAGING 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT CROSSES THE CWA TONIGHT...AND WITH STRONGER LIFT
RIGHT AHEAD OF IT...THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES OF OVERRUNNING/RAIN FOR
THE NIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING...FOG EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THE NIGHT NON-DIURNAL WITH WAA.

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE ROUGHLY MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH LIFT SUPPLIED
BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS
LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. MAV/MET MOS WERE REASONABLY SIMILAR FOR HIGH TEMPS...SO
USED A BLEND AGAIN.

THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE ADVECTION OF
DEWPOINTS OVER 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NEARBY WATER SURFACE
TEMPS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PRECEDES THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH...AND REMAIN WEAK FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTERWARDS BEFORE STRENGTHENING FROM THE NORTH. RAIN IS
LIKELY...FOCUSED NEAR THE COLD FRONT. ELEVATED CAPE FORECAST TO
STILL BE PRESENT...SO ISO THUNDER DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL/EASTERN US TROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WESTERN US RIDGING BUILDS. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN SUN NIGHT BEFORE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGY...AND
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST/TAPER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. BASED ON SLOWER MODEL TRENDS THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND BLOCKY UPPER PATTERN IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT/SAT...PARTICULARLY FOR
LI/CT. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS
(WEAKER SIGNAL IN GEFS)...SEEN IN 00Z OPERATIONAL GEM...WITH HINTS
OF IT AT 84 HRS IN 00Z NAM. LOCATION OF ANY INVERTED TROUGH WOULD BE
KEY TO WHERE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY WOULD RESIDE DURING
THIS TIME...BUT EVEN WITHOUT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOCUS...MID-
LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL INSTABILITY WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPER
OF LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

CAA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
POOL.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
SUNDAY AND DRYING BUT COOL CONDS. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND PIVOTS THROUGH THE NE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. CEILINGS DECREASE TO 3500-6000FT AFTER
19Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY TEMPO -RA THAT OCCURS BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z THU. RA BECOMES PREVAILING THEREAFTER...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AS WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN LIFR ...MAINLY
AFTER 02Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LLWS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH THE WARM FRONT. WINDS AT 2000 FT WILL BE AROUND 50
KT.

    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT
RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z. LLWS BETWEEN 03Z- 08Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN
SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR OR
LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS
ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...BUT POSSIBLY ON SOME OF THE OTHER WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL PROBABLY BUILD UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING A
LATE 3RD PERIOD EVENT...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING SCA ATTM. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INITIAL DROP IN WIND
SPEEDS BEFORE THEY PICK UP FROM THE NORTH LATE AT NIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO THE CHANCE OF DENSE FOG FORMATION ON THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDE OF HIGH SOUTHERLY SWELLS. MARGINAL SCA
CONDS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WITH GUSTY
NW FLOW...CAA...AND RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT
IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 251148
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
748 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...CLOUDS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY THICKER THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE BRING CHANCES OF RAIN PRIMARILY FROM MID-AFTERNOON ON.
RAIN LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDOWN.

A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WAS USED FOR HIGHS...AVERAGING 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT CROSSES THE CWA TONIGHT...AND WITH STRONGER LIFT
RIGHT AHEAD OF IT...THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES OF OVERRUNNING/RAIN FOR
THE NIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING...FOG EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THE NIGHT NON-DIURNAL WITH WAA.

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE ROUGHLY MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH LIFT SUPPLIED
BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS
LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. MAV/MET MOS WERE REASONABLY SIMILAR FOR HIGH TEMPS...SO
USED A BLEND AGAIN.

THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE ADVECTION OF
DEWPOINTS OVER 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NEARBY WATER SURFACE
TEMPS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PRECEDES THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH...AND REMAIN WEAK FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTERWARDS BEFORE STRENGTHENING FROM THE NORTH. RAIN IS
LIKELY...FOCUSED NEAR THE COLD FRONT. ELEVATED CAPE FORECAST TO
STILL BE PRESENT...SO ISO THUNDER DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL/EASTERN US TROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WESTERN US RIDGING BUILDS. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN SUN NIGHT BEFORE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGY...AND
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST/TAPER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. BASED ON SLOWER MODEL TRENDS THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND BLOCKY UPPER PATTERN IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT/SAT...PARTICULARLY FOR
LI/CT. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS
(WEAKER SIGNAL IN GEFS)...SEEN IN 00Z OPERATIONAL GEM...WITH HINTS
OF IT AT 84 HRS IN 00Z NAM. LOCATION OF ANY INVERTED TROUGH WOULD BE
KEY TO WHERE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY WOULD RESIDE DURING
THIS TIME...BUT EVEN WITHOUT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOCUS...MID-
LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL INSTABILITY WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPER
OF LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

CAA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
POOL.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
SUNDAY AND DRYING BUT COOL CONDS. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND PIVOTS THROUGH THE NE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. CEILINGS DECREASE TO 3500-6000FT AFTER
19Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY TEMPO -RA THAT OCCURS BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z THU. RA BECOMES PREVAILING THEREAFTER...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AS WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN LIFR ...MAINLY
AFTER 02Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LLWS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH THE WARM FRONT. WINDS AT 2000 FT WILL BE AROUND 50
KT.

    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT
RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z. LLWS BETWEEN 03Z- 08Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN
SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR OR
LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS
ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...BUT POSSIBLY ON SOME OF THE OTHER WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL PROBABLY BUILD UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING A
LATE 3RD PERIOD EVENT...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING SCA ATTM. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INITIAL DROP IN WIND
SPEEDS BEFORE THEY PICK UP FROM THE NORTH LATE AT NIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO THE CHANCE OF DENSE FOG FORMATION ON THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDE OF HIGH SOUTHERLY SWELLS. MARGINAL SCA
CONDS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WITH GUSTY
NW FLOW...CAA...AND RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT
IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251139
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
739 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY THICKER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE BRING CHANCES OF RAIN
PRIMARILY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. RAIN LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDOWN.

A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WAS USED FOR HIGHS...AVERAGING 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT CROSSES THE CWA TONIGHT...AND WITH STRONGER LIFT
RIGHT AHEAD OF IT...THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES OF OVERRUNNING/RAIN FOR
THE NIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING...FOG EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THE NIGHT NON-DIURNAL WITH WAA.

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE ROUGHLY MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH LIFT SUPPLIED
BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS
LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. MAV/MET MOS WERE REASONABLY SIMILAR FOR HIGH TEMPS...SO
USED A BLEND AGAIN.

THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT
     DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE ADVECTION OF
DEWPOINTS OVER 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NEARBY WATER SURFACE
TEMPS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PRECEDES THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH...AND REMAIN WEAK FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTERWARDS BEFORE STRENGTHENING FROM THE NORTH. RAIN IS
LIKELY...FOCUSED NEAR THE COLD FRONT. ELEVATED CAPE FORECAST TO
STILL BE PRESENT...SO ISO THUNDER DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL/EASTERN US TROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WESTERN US RIDGING BUILDS. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN SUN NIGHT BEFORE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGY...AND
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST/TAPER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. BASED ON SLOWER MODEL TRENDS THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND BLOCKY UPPER PATTERN IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT/SAT...PARTICULARLY FOR
LI/CT. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS
(WEAKER SIGNAL IN GEFS)...SEEN IN 00Z OPERATIONAL GEM...WITH HINTS
OF IT AT 84 HRS IN 00Z NAM. LOCATION OF ANY INVERTED TROUGH WOULD BE
KEY TO WHERE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY WOULD RESIDE DURING
THIS TIME...BUT EVEN WITHOUT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOCUS...MID-
LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL INSTABILITY WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPER
OF LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

CAA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
POOL.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
SUNDAY AND DRYING BUT COOL CONDS. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND PIVOTS THROUGH THE NE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. CEILINGS DECREASE TO 3500-6000FT AFTER
19Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY TEMPO -RA THAT OCCURS BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z THU. RA BECOMES PERVAILING THEREAFTER...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AS WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN LIFR ...MAINLY
AFTER 02Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LLWS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH THE WARM FRONT. WINDS AT 2000 FT WILL BE AROUND 50
KT.

    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT
RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z. LLWS BETWEEN 03Z- 08Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN
SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR OR
LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS
ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...BUT POSSIBLY ON SOME OF THE OTHER WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL PROBABLY BUILD UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING A
LATE 3RD PERIOD EVENT...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING SCA ATTM. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INITIAL DROP IN WIND
SPEEDS BEFORE THEY PICK UP FROM THE NORTH LATE AT NIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO THE CHANCE OF DENSE FOG FORMATION ON THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDE OF HIGH SOUTHERLY SWELLS. MARGINAL SCA
CONDS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WITH GUSTY
NW FLOW...CAA...AND RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO
MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY THE CONNECTICUT AND
LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY
INTO THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVER AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 251139
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
739 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY THICKER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE BRING CHANCES OF RAIN
PRIMARILY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. RAIN LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDOWN.

A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WAS USED FOR HIGHS...AVERAGING 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT CROSSES THE CWA TONIGHT...AND WITH STRONGER LIFT
RIGHT AHEAD OF IT...THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES OF OVERRUNNING/RAIN FOR
THE NIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING...FOG EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THE NIGHT NON-DIURNAL WITH WAA.

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE ROUGHLY MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH LIFT SUPPLIED
BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS
LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. MAV/MET MOS WERE REASONABLY SIMILAR FOR HIGH TEMPS...SO
USED A BLEND AGAIN.

THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT
     DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE ADVECTION OF
DEWPOINTS OVER 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NEARBY WATER SURFACE
TEMPS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PRECEDES THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH...AND REMAIN WEAK FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTERWARDS BEFORE STRENGTHENING FROM THE NORTH. RAIN IS
LIKELY...FOCUSED NEAR THE COLD FRONT. ELEVATED CAPE FORECAST TO
STILL BE PRESENT...SO ISO THUNDER DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL/EASTERN US TROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WESTERN US RIDGING BUILDS. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN SUN NIGHT BEFORE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGY...AND
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST/TAPER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. BASED ON SLOWER MODEL TRENDS THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND BLOCKY UPPER PATTERN IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT/SAT...PARTICULARLY FOR
LI/CT. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS
(WEAKER SIGNAL IN GEFS)...SEEN IN 00Z OPERATIONAL GEM...WITH HINTS
OF IT AT 84 HRS IN 00Z NAM. LOCATION OF ANY INVERTED TROUGH WOULD BE
KEY TO WHERE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY WOULD RESIDE DURING
THIS TIME...BUT EVEN WITHOUT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOCUS...MID-
LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL INSTABILITY WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPER
OF LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

CAA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
POOL.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
SUNDAY AND DRYING BUT COOL CONDS. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND PIVOTS THROUGH THE NE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. CEILINGS DECREASE TO 3500-6000FT AFTER
19Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY TEMPO -RA THAT OCCURS BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z THU. RA BECOMES PERVAILING THEREAFTER...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AS WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN LIFR ...MAINLY
AFTER 02Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LLWS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH THE WARM FRONT. WINDS AT 2000 FT WILL BE AROUND 50
KT.

    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT
RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z. LLWS BETWEEN 03Z- 08Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN
SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR OR
LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS
ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...BUT POSSIBLY ON SOME OF THE OTHER WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL PROBABLY BUILD UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING A
LATE 3RD PERIOD EVENT...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING SCA ATTM. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INITIAL DROP IN WIND
SPEEDS BEFORE THEY PICK UP FROM THE NORTH LATE AT NIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO THE CHANCE OF DENSE FOG FORMATION ON THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDE OF HIGH SOUTHERLY SWELLS. MARGINAL SCA
CONDS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WITH GUSTY
NW FLOW...CAA...AND RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO
MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY THE CONNECTICUT AND
LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY
INTO THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVER AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251139
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
739 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY THICKER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE BRING CHANCES OF RAIN
PRIMARILY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. RAIN LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDOWN.

A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WAS USED FOR HIGHS...AVERAGING 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT CROSSES THE CWA TONIGHT...AND WITH STRONGER LIFT
RIGHT AHEAD OF IT...THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES OF OVERRUNNING/RAIN FOR
THE NIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING...FOG EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THE NIGHT NON-DIURNAL WITH WAA.

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE ROUGHLY MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH LIFT SUPPLIED
BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS
LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. MAV/MET MOS WERE REASONABLY SIMILAR FOR HIGH TEMPS...SO
USED A BLEND AGAIN.

THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT
     DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE ADVECTION OF
DEWPOINTS OVER 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NEARBY WATER SURFACE
TEMPS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PRECEDES THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH...AND REMAIN WEAK FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTERWARDS BEFORE STRENGTHENING FROM THE NORTH. RAIN IS
LIKELY...FOCUSED NEAR THE COLD FRONT. ELEVATED CAPE FORECAST TO
STILL BE PRESENT...SO ISO THUNDER DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL/EASTERN US TROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WESTERN US RIDGING BUILDS. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN SUN NIGHT BEFORE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGY...AND
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST/TAPER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. BASED ON SLOWER MODEL TRENDS THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND BLOCKY UPPER PATTERN IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT/SAT...PARTICULARLY FOR
LI/CT. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS
(WEAKER SIGNAL IN GEFS)...SEEN IN 00Z OPERATIONAL GEM...WITH HINTS
OF IT AT 84 HRS IN 00Z NAM. LOCATION OF ANY INVERTED TROUGH WOULD BE
KEY TO WHERE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY WOULD RESIDE DURING
THIS TIME...BUT EVEN WITHOUT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOCUS...MID-
LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL INSTABILITY WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPER
OF LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

CAA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
POOL.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
SUNDAY AND DRYING BUT COOL CONDS. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND PIVOTS THROUGH THE NE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. CEILINGS DECREASE TO 3500-6000FT AFTER
19Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY TEMPO -RA THAT OCCURS BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z THU. RA BECOMES PERVAILING THEREAFTER...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AS WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN LIFR ...MAINLY
AFTER 02Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LLWS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH THE WARM FRONT. WINDS AT 2000 FT WILL BE AROUND 50
KT.

    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT
RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z. LLWS BETWEEN 03Z- 08Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN
SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR OR
LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS
ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...BUT POSSIBLY ON SOME OF THE OTHER WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL PROBABLY BUILD UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING A
LATE 3RD PERIOD EVENT...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING SCA ATTM. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INITIAL DROP IN WIND
SPEEDS BEFORE THEY PICK UP FROM THE NORTH LATE AT NIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO THE CHANCE OF DENSE FOG FORMATION ON THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDE OF HIGH SOUTHERLY SWELLS. MARGINAL SCA
CONDS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WITH GUSTY
NW FLOW...CAA...AND RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO
MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY THE CONNECTICUT AND
LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY
INTO THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVER AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251139
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
739 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY THICKER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE BRING CHANCES OF RAIN
PRIMARILY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. RAIN LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDOWN.

A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WAS USED FOR HIGHS...AVERAGING 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT CROSSES THE CWA TONIGHT...AND WITH STRONGER LIFT
RIGHT AHEAD OF IT...THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES OF OVERRUNNING/RAIN FOR
THE NIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING...FOG EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THE NIGHT NON-DIURNAL WITH WAA.

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE ROUGHLY MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH LIFT SUPPLIED
BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS
LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. MAV/MET MOS WERE REASONABLY SIMILAR FOR HIGH TEMPS...SO
USED A BLEND AGAIN.

THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT
     DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE ADVECTION OF
DEWPOINTS OVER 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NEARBY WATER SURFACE
TEMPS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PRECEDES THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH...AND REMAIN WEAK FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTERWARDS BEFORE STRENGTHENING FROM THE NORTH. RAIN IS
LIKELY...FOCUSED NEAR THE COLD FRONT. ELEVATED CAPE FORECAST TO
STILL BE PRESENT...SO ISO THUNDER DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL/EASTERN US TROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WESTERN US RIDGING BUILDS. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN SUN NIGHT BEFORE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGY...AND
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST/TAPER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. BASED ON SLOWER MODEL TRENDS THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND BLOCKY UPPER PATTERN IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT/SAT...PARTICULARLY FOR
LI/CT. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS
(WEAKER SIGNAL IN GEFS)...SEEN IN 00Z OPERATIONAL GEM...WITH HINTS
OF IT AT 84 HRS IN 00Z NAM. LOCATION OF ANY INVERTED TROUGH WOULD BE
KEY TO WHERE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY WOULD RESIDE DURING
THIS TIME...BUT EVEN WITHOUT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOCUS...MID-
LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL INSTABILITY WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPER
OF LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

CAA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
POOL.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
SUNDAY AND DRYING BUT COOL CONDS. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND PIVOTS THROUGH THE NE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. CEILINGS DECREASE TO 3500-6000FT AFTER
19Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY TEMPO -RA THAT OCCURS BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z THU. RA BECOMES PERVAILING THEREAFTER...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AS WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN LIFR ...MAINLY
AFTER 02Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LLWS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH THE WARM FRONT. WINDS AT 2000 FT WILL BE AROUND 50
KT.

    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT
RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS
AT 2000 FT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z. LLWS BETWEEN 03Z- 08Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN
SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR OR
LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS
ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...BUT POSSIBLY ON SOME OF THE OTHER WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL PROBABLY BUILD UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING A
LATE 3RD PERIOD EVENT...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING SCA ATTM. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INITIAL DROP IN WIND
SPEEDS BEFORE THEY PICK UP FROM THE NORTH LATE AT NIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO THE CHANCE OF DENSE FOG FORMATION ON THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDE OF HIGH SOUTHERLY SWELLS. MARGINAL SCA
CONDS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WITH GUSTY
NW FLOW...CAA...AND RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO
MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY THE CONNECTICUT AND
LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY
INTO THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVER AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 250845
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
445 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY THICKER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE BRING CHANCES OF RAIN
PRIMARILY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. RAIN LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDOWN.

A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WAS USED FOR HIGHS...AVERAGING 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT CROSSES THE CWA TONIGHT...AND WITH STRONGER LIFT
RIGHT AHEAD OF IT...THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES OF OVERRUNNING/RAIN FOR
THE NIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING...FOG EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THE NIGHT NON-DIURNAL WITH WAA.

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE ROUGHLY MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH LIFT SUPPLIED
BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS
LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. MAV/MET MOS WERE REASONABLY SIMILAR FOR HIGH TEMPS...SO
USED A BLEND AGAIN.

THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT
     DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE ADVECTION OF
DEWPOINTS OVER 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NEARBY WATER SURFACE
TEMPS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PRECEDES THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH...AND REMAIN WEAK FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTERWARDS BEFORE STRENGTHENING FROM THE NORTH. RAIN IS
LIKELY...FOCUSED NEAR THE COLD FRONT. ELEVATED CAPE FORECAST TO
STILL BE PRESENT...SO ISO THUNDER DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL/EASTERN US TROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WESTERN US RIDGING BUILDS. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN SUN NIGHT BEFORE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGY...AND
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST/TAPER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. BASED ON SLOWER MODEL TRENDS THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND BLOCKY UPPER PATTERN IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT/SAT...PARTICULARLY FOR
LI/CT. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS
(WEAKER SIGNAL IN GEFS)...SEEN IN 00Z OPERATIONAL GEM...WITH HINTS
OF IT AT 84 HRS IN 00Z NAM. LOCATION OF ANY INVERTED TROUGH WOULD BE
KEY TO WHERE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY WOULD RESIDE DURING
THIS TIME...BUT EVEN WITHOUT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOCUS...MID-
LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL INSTABILITY WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPER
OF LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

CAA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
POOL.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
SUNDAY AND DRYING BUT COOL CONDS. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND PIVOTS THROUGH THE NE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. CEILINGS DECREASE TO 3500-6000FT AFTER
19Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY TEMPO -RA THAT OCCURS BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z THU. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS BECOME IFR AS WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. RIGHT NOW...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z THU.

    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z THU.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z THU.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z THU.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT
RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z THU.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z THU.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z THU.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN
SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR OR
LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS
ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...BUT POSSIBLY ON SOME OF THE OTHER WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL PROBABLY BUILD UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING A
LATE 3RD PERIOD EVENT...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING SCA ATTM. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INITIAL DROP IN WIND
SPEEDS BEFORE THEY PICK UP FROM THE NORTH LATE AT NIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO THE CHANCE OF DENSE FOG FORMATION ON THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDE OF HIGH SOUTHERLY SWELLS. MARGINAL SCA
CONDS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WITH GUSTY
NW FLOW...CAA...AND RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO
MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY THE CONNECTICUT AND
LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY
INTO THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVER AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 250845
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
445 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY THICKER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE BRING CHANCES OF RAIN
PRIMARILY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. RAIN LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDOWN.

A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WAS USED FOR HIGHS...AVERAGING 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT CROSSES THE CWA TONIGHT...AND WITH STRONGER LIFT
RIGHT AHEAD OF IT...THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES OF OVERRUNNING/RAIN FOR
THE NIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING...FOG EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THE NIGHT NON-DIURNAL WITH WAA.

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE ROUGHLY MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH LIFT SUPPLIED
BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS
LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. MAV/MET MOS WERE REASONABLY SIMILAR FOR HIGH TEMPS...SO
USED A BLEND AGAIN.

THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT
     DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE ADVECTION OF
DEWPOINTS OVER 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NEARBY WATER SURFACE
TEMPS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PRECEDES THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH...AND REMAIN WEAK FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTERWARDS BEFORE STRENGTHENING FROM THE NORTH. RAIN IS
LIKELY...FOCUSED NEAR THE COLD FRONT. ELEVATED CAPE FORECAST TO
STILL BE PRESENT...SO ISO THUNDER DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL/EASTERN US TROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WESTERN US RIDGING BUILDS. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN SUN NIGHT BEFORE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGY...AND
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST/TAPER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. BASED ON SLOWER MODEL TRENDS THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND BLOCKY UPPER PATTERN IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT/SAT...PARTICULARLY FOR
LI/CT. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS
(WEAKER SIGNAL IN GEFS)...SEEN IN 00Z OPERATIONAL GEM...WITH HINTS
OF IT AT 84 HRS IN 00Z NAM. LOCATION OF ANY INVERTED TROUGH WOULD BE
KEY TO WHERE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY WOULD RESIDE DURING
THIS TIME...BUT EVEN WITHOUT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOCUS...MID-
LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL INSTABILITY WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPER
OF LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

CAA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
POOL.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
SUNDAY AND DRYING BUT COOL CONDS. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND PIVOTS THROUGH THE NE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. CEILINGS DECREASE TO 3500-6000FT AFTER
19Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY TEMPO -RA THAT OCCURS BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z THU. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS BECOME IFR AS WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. RIGHT NOW...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z THU.

    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z THU.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z THU.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z THU.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT
RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z THU.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z THU.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z THU.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN
SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR OR
LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS
ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...BUT POSSIBLY ON SOME OF THE OTHER WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL PROBABLY BUILD UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING A
LATE 3RD PERIOD EVENT...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING SCA ATTM. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INITIAL DROP IN WIND
SPEEDS BEFORE THEY PICK UP FROM THE NORTH LATE AT NIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO THE CHANCE OF DENSE FOG FORMATION ON THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDE OF HIGH SOUTHERLY SWELLS. MARGINAL SCA
CONDS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WITH GUSTY
NW FLOW...CAA...AND RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO
MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY THE CONNECTICUT AND
LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY
INTO THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVER AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 250743
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
343 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY THICKER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE BRING CHANCES OF RAIN
PRIMARILY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. RAIN LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDOWN.

A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WAS USED FOR HIGHS...AVERAGING 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT CROSSES THE CWA TONIGHT...AND WITH STRONGER LIFT
RIGHT AHEAD OF IT...THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES OF OVERRUNNING/RAIN FOR
THE NIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING...FOG EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THE NIGHT NON-DIURNAL WITH WAA.

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE ROUGHLY MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH LIFT SUPPLIED
BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS
LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. MAV/MET MOS WERE REASONABLY SIMILAR FOR HIGH TEMPS...SO
USED A BLEND AGAIN.

THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT
...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE ADVECTION OF
DEWPOINTS OVER 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NEARBY WATER SURFACE
TEMPS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PRECEDES THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH...AND REMAIN WEAK FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTERWARDS BEFORE STRENGTHENING FROM THE NORTH. RAIN IS
LIKELY...FOCUSED NEAR THE COLD FRONT. ELEVATED CAPE FORECAST TO
STILL BE PRESENT...SO ISO THUNDER DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL/EASTERN US TROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WESTERN US RIDGING BUILDS. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN SUN NIGHT BEFORE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGY...AND
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST/TAPER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. BASED ON SLOWER MODEL TRENDS THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND BLOCKY UPPER PATTERN IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT/SAT...PARTICULARLY FOR
LI/CT. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS
(WEAKER SIGNAL IN GEFS)...SEEN IN 00Z OPERATIONAL GEM...WITH HINTS
OF IT AT 84 HRS IN 00Z NAM. LOCATION OF ANY INVERTED TROUGH WOULD BE
KEY TO WHERE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY WOULD RESIDE DURING
THIS TIME...BUT EVEN WITHOUT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOCUS...MID-
LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL INSTABILITY WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPER
OF LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

CAA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
POOL.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
SUNDAY AND DRYING BUT COOL CONDS. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND PIVOTS THROUGH THE NE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS DECREASE TO
3500-6000FT AFTER 19Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY TEMPO -RA
THAT OCCURS BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z THU. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS
BECOME IFR AS WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RIGHT NOW...THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z THU.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SE- SSE WINDS
10KT OR LESS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW CHANCE OF GUSTS
AROUND 15 TO MAYBE 20 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ONCE AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN
SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR
OR LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS
ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...BUT POSSIBLY ON SOME OF THE OTHER WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL PROBABLY BUILD UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING A
LATE 3RD PERIOD EVENT...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING SCA ATTM. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INITIAL DROP IN WIND
SPEEDS BEFORE THEY PICK UP FROM THE NORTH LATE AT NIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO THE CHANCE OF DENSE FOG FORMATION ON THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDE OF HIGH SOUTHERLY SWELLS. MARGINAL SCA
CONDS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WITH GUSTY
NW FLOW...CAA...AND RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO
MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY THE CONNECTICUT AND
LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY
INTO THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVER AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 250743
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
343 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY THICKER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE BRING CHANCES OF RAIN
PRIMARILY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. RAIN LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDOWN.

A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WAS USED FOR HIGHS...AVERAGING 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT CROSSES THE CWA TONIGHT...AND WITH STRONGER LIFT
RIGHT AHEAD OF IT...THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES OF OVERRUNNING/RAIN FOR
THE NIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING...FOG EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THE NIGHT NON-DIURNAL WITH WAA.

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE ROUGHLY MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH LIFT SUPPLIED
BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS
LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. MAV/MET MOS WERE REASONABLY SIMILAR FOR HIGH TEMPS...SO
USED A BLEND AGAIN.

THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT
...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE ADVECTION OF
DEWPOINTS OVER 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NEARBY WATER SURFACE
TEMPS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PRECEDES THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH...AND REMAIN WEAK FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTERWARDS BEFORE STRENGTHENING FROM THE NORTH. RAIN IS
LIKELY...FOCUSED NEAR THE COLD FRONT. ELEVATED CAPE FORECAST TO
STILL BE PRESENT...SO ISO THUNDER DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL/EASTERN US TROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WESTERN US RIDGING BUILDS. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN SUN NIGHT BEFORE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGY...AND
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST/TAPER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. BASED ON SLOWER MODEL TRENDS THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND BLOCKY UPPER PATTERN IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT/SAT...PARTICULARLY FOR
LI/CT. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS
(WEAKER SIGNAL IN GEFS)...SEEN IN 00Z OPERATIONAL GEM...WITH HINTS
OF IT AT 84 HRS IN 00Z NAM. LOCATION OF ANY INVERTED TROUGH WOULD BE
KEY TO WHERE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY WOULD RESIDE DURING
THIS TIME...BUT EVEN WITHOUT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOCUS...MID-
LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL INSTABILITY WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPER
OF LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

CAA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
POOL.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
SUNDAY AND DRYING BUT COOL CONDS. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND PIVOTS THROUGH THE NE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS DECREASE TO
3500-6000FT AFTER 19Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY TEMPO -RA
THAT OCCURS BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z THU. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS
BECOME IFR AS WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RIGHT NOW...THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z THU.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SE- SSE WINDS
10KT OR LESS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW CHANCE OF GUSTS
AROUND 15 TO MAYBE 20 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ONCE AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN
SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR
OR LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS
ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...BUT POSSIBLY ON SOME OF THE OTHER WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL PROBABLY BUILD UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING A
LATE 3RD PERIOD EVENT...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING SCA ATTM. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INITIAL DROP IN WIND
SPEEDS BEFORE THEY PICK UP FROM THE NORTH LATE AT NIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO THE CHANCE OF DENSE FOG FORMATION ON THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDE OF HIGH SOUTHERLY SWELLS. MARGINAL SCA
CONDS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WITH GUSTY
NW FLOW...CAA...AND RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO
MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY THE CONNECTICUT AND
LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY
INTO THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVER AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 250743
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
343 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY THICKER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE BRING CHANCES OF RAIN
PRIMARILY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. RAIN LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDOWN.

A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WAS USED FOR HIGHS...AVERAGING 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT CROSSES THE CWA TONIGHT...AND WITH STRONGER LIFT
RIGHT AHEAD OF IT...THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES OF OVERRUNNING/RAIN FOR
THE NIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING...FOG EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THE NIGHT NON-DIURNAL WITH WAA.

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE ROUGHLY MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH LIFT SUPPLIED
BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS
LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. MAV/MET MOS WERE REASONABLY SIMILAR FOR HIGH TEMPS...SO
USED A BLEND AGAIN.

THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT
...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE ADVECTION OF
DEWPOINTS OVER 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NEARBY WATER SURFACE
TEMPS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PRECEDES THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH...AND REMAIN WEAK FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTERWARDS BEFORE STRENGTHENING FROM THE NORTH. RAIN IS
LIKELY...FOCUSED NEAR THE COLD FRONT. ELEVATED CAPE FORECAST TO
STILL BE PRESENT...SO ISO THUNDER DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL/EASTERN US TROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WESTERN US RIDGING BUILDS. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN SUN NIGHT BEFORE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGY...AND
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST/TAPER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. BASED ON SLOWER MODEL TRENDS THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND BLOCKY UPPER PATTERN IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT/SAT...PARTICULARLY FOR
LI/CT. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS
(WEAKER SIGNAL IN GEFS)...SEEN IN 00Z OPERATIONAL GEM...WITH HINTS
OF IT AT 84 HRS IN 00Z NAM. LOCATION OF ANY INVERTED TROUGH WOULD BE
KEY TO WHERE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY WOULD RESIDE DURING
THIS TIME...BUT EVEN WITHOUT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOCUS...MID-
LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL INSTABILITY WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPER
OF LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

CAA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
POOL.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
SUNDAY AND DRYING BUT COOL CONDS. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND PIVOTS THROUGH THE NE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS DECREASE TO
3500-6000FT AFTER 19Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY TEMPO -RA
THAT OCCURS BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z THU. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS
BECOME IFR AS WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RIGHT NOW...THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z THU.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SE- SSE WINDS
10KT OR LESS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW CHANCE OF GUSTS
AROUND 15 TO MAYBE 20 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ONCE AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN
SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR
OR LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS
ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...BUT POSSIBLY ON SOME OF THE OTHER WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL PROBABLY BUILD UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING A
LATE 3RD PERIOD EVENT...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING SCA ATTM. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INITIAL DROP IN WIND
SPEEDS BEFORE THEY PICK UP FROM THE NORTH LATE AT NIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO THE CHANCE OF DENSE FOG FORMATION ON THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDE OF HIGH SOUTHERLY SWELLS. MARGINAL SCA
CONDS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WITH GUSTY
NW FLOW...CAA...AND RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO
MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY THE CONNECTICUT AND
LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY
INTO THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY RIVER AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 250601
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
201 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL
DRAG A WARM FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY. THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL END UP NEAR CAPE COD BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM -3C
TO -5C...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S IN
NYC...AND IN THE MID 20S FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS. AREAS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY WILL
RADIATE QUITE WELL...AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS THERE.

AVERAGE LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE TYPICALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...SO LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS
DURING THE DAY. THAT LOW WILL ALSO CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH...IT MAY KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION AT BAY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. BUT THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S...AND THEN TEMPS WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP...NEAR FULL LATITUDE...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITES STATES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITES STATES. WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND TROUGH
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS FOR THE PROGRESSION OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY. WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
AREA BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING OF 50 KT TO 60 KT. IN ADDITION THERE AREA WILL BE
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL JET. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
SURFACE CAPE OF 200 TO 300 J/KG. SO HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STILL EXPECT ALL LIQUID AS THE COLDER
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS DECREASE TO
3500-6000FT AFTER 19Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY TEMPO -RA
THAT OCCURS BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z THU. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS
BECOME IFR AS WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RIGHT NOW...THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z THU.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SE- SSE WINDS
10KT OR LESS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW CHANCE OF GUSTS
AROUND 15 TO MAYBE 20 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ONCE AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN
SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR
OR LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE
OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TO 10-15 KT AND OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT.

WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY...WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS ON THE FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND SHIFTS TO
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME GUSTS
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT MAY GUST TO SMALL CRAFT THEN DIMINISH BELOW.

IN ADDITION...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER INTO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...WIND AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND CONNECTICUT RIVERS/STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW SEASONABLE
TEMPS.

THEREAFTER...AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RAINFALL AND MILD
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 250601
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
201 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL
DRAG A WARM FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY. THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL END UP NEAR CAPE COD BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM -3C
TO -5C...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S IN
NYC...AND IN THE MID 20S FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS. AREAS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY WILL
RADIATE QUITE WELL...AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS THERE.

AVERAGE LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE TYPICALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...SO LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS
DURING THE DAY. THAT LOW WILL ALSO CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH...IT MAY KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION AT BAY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. BUT THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S...AND THEN TEMPS WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP...NEAR FULL LATITUDE...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITES STATES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITES STATES. WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND TROUGH
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS FOR THE PROGRESSION OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY. WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
AREA BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING OF 50 KT TO 60 KT. IN ADDITION THERE AREA WILL BE
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL JET. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
SURFACE CAPE OF 200 TO 300 J/KG. SO HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STILL EXPECT ALL LIQUID AS THE COLDER
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS DECREASE TO
3500-6000FT AFTER 19Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY TEMPO -RA
THAT OCCURS BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z THU. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS
BECOME IFR AS WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RIGHT NOW...THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z THU.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SE- SSE WINDS
10KT OR LESS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW CHANCE OF GUSTS
AROUND 15 TO MAYBE 20 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ONCE AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN
SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR
OR LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE
OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TO 10-15 KT AND OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT.

WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY...WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS ON THE FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND SHIFTS TO
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME GUSTS
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT MAY GUST TO SMALL CRAFT THEN DIMINISH BELOW.

IN ADDITION...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER INTO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...WIND AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND CONNECTICUT RIVERS/STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW SEASONABLE
TEMPS.

THEREAFTER...AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RAINFALL AND MILD
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 250601
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
201 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL
DRAG A WARM FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY. THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL END UP NEAR CAPE COD BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM -3C
TO -5C...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S IN
NYC...AND IN THE MID 20S FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS. AREAS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY WILL
RADIATE QUITE WELL...AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS THERE.

AVERAGE LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE TYPICALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...SO LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS
DURING THE DAY. THAT LOW WILL ALSO CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH...IT MAY KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION AT BAY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. BUT THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S...AND THEN TEMPS WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP...NEAR FULL LATITUDE...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITES STATES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITES STATES. WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND TROUGH
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS FOR THE PROGRESSION OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY. WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
AREA BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING OF 50 KT TO 60 KT. IN ADDITION THERE AREA WILL BE
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL JET. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
SURFACE CAPE OF 200 TO 300 J/KG. SO HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STILL EXPECT ALL LIQUID AS THE COLDER
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS DECREASE TO
3500-6000FT AFTER 19Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY TEMPO -RA
THAT OCCURS BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z THU. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS
BECOME IFR AS WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RIGHT NOW...THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z THU.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SE- SSE WINDS
10KT OR LESS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW CHANCE OF GUSTS
AROUND 15 TO MAYBE 20 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ONCE AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN
SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR
OR LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE
OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TO 10-15 KT AND OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT.

WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY...WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS ON THE FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND SHIFTS TO
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME GUSTS
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT MAY GUST TO SMALL CRAFT THEN DIMINISH BELOW.

IN ADDITION...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER INTO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...WIND AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND CONNECTICUT RIVERS/STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW SEASONABLE
TEMPS.

THEREAFTER...AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RAINFALL AND MILD
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 250601
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
201 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL
DRAG A WARM FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY. THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL END UP NEAR CAPE COD BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM -3C
TO -5C...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S IN
NYC...AND IN THE MID 20S FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS. AREAS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY WILL
RADIATE QUITE WELL...AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS THERE.

AVERAGE LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE TYPICALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...SO LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS
DURING THE DAY. THAT LOW WILL ALSO CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH...IT MAY KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION AT BAY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. BUT THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S...AND THEN TEMPS WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP...NEAR FULL LATITUDE...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITES STATES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITES STATES. WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND TROUGH
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS FOR THE PROGRESSION OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY. WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
AREA BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING OF 50 KT TO 60 KT. IN ADDITION THERE AREA WILL BE
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL JET. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
SURFACE CAPE OF 200 TO 300 J/KG. SO HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STILL EXPECT ALL LIQUID AS THE COLDER
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS DECREASE TO
3500-6000FT AFTER 19Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY TEMPO -RA
THAT OCCURS BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z THU. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS
BECOME IFR AS WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RIGHT NOW...THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z THU.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SE- SSE WINDS
10KT OR LESS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW CHANCE OF GUSTS
AROUND 15 TO MAYBE 20 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ONCE AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN
SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR
OR LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE
OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TO 10-15 KT AND OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT.

WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY...WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS ON THE FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND SHIFTS TO
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME GUSTS
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT MAY GUST TO SMALL CRAFT THEN DIMINISH BELOW.

IN ADDITION...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER INTO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...WIND AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND CONNECTICUT RIVERS/STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW SEASONABLE
TEMPS.

THEREAFTER...AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RAINFALL AND MILD
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 250346
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1146 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL
DRAG A WARM FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY. THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL END UP NEAR CAPE COD BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM -3C
TO -5C...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S IN
NYC...AND IN THE MID 20S FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS. AREAS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY WILL
RADIATE QUITE WELL...AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS THERE.

AVERAGE LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE TYPICALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...SO LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS
DURING THE DAY. THAT LOW WILL ALSO CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH...IT MAY KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION AT BAY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. BUT THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S...AND THEN TEMPS WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP...NEAR FULL LATITUDE...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITES STATES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITES STATES. WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND TROUGH
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS FOR THE PROGRESSION OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY. WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
AREA BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING OF 50 KT TO 60 KT. IN ADDITION THERE AREA WILL BE
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL JET. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
SURFACE CAPE OF 200 TO 300 J/KG. SO HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STILL EXPECT ALL LIQUID AS THE COLDER
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS DECREASE TO
3500-6000FT AFTER 19Z. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AT WESTERN
TERMINALS AFTER 20Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW
TO REFLECT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SE- SSE WINDS
10KT OR LESS DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE OF GUSTS AROUND 15 TO MAYBE 20 KT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO
REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
RAIN SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR
OR LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE
OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TO 10-15 KT AND OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT.

WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY...WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS ON THE FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND SHIFTS TO
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME GUSTS
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT MAY GUST TO SMALL CRAFT THEN DIMINISH BELOW.

IN ADDITION...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER INTO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...WIND AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND CONNECTICUT RIVERS/STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW SEASONABLE
TEMPS.

THEREAFTER...AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RAINFALL AND MILD
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 250346
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1146 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL
DRAG A WARM FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY. THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL END UP NEAR CAPE COD BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM -3C
TO -5C...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S IN
NYC...AND IN THE MID 20S FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS. AREAS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY WILL
RADIATE QUITE WELL...AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS THERE.

AVERAGE LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE TYPICALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...SO LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS
DURING THE DAY. THAT LOW WILL ALSO CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH...IT MAY KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION AT BAY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. BUT THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S...AND THEN TEMPS WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP...NEAR FULL LATITUDE...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITES STATES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITES STATES. WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND TROUGH
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS FOR THE PROGRESSION OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY. WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
AREA BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING OF 50 KT TO 60 KT. IN ADDITION THERE AREA WILL BE
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL JET. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
SURFACE CAPE OF 200 TO 300 J/KG. SO HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STILL EXPECT ALL LIQUID AS THE COLDER
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS DECREASE TO
3500-6000FT AFTER 19Z. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AT WESTERN
TERMINALS AFTER 20Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW
TO REFLECT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SE- SSE WINDS
10KT OR LESS DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE OF GUSTS AROUND 15 TO MAYBE 20 KT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO
REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
RAIN SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR
OR LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE
OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TO 10-15 KT AND OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT.

WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY...WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS ON THE FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND SHIFTS TO
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME GUSTS
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT MAY GUST TO SMALL CRAFT THEN DIMINISH BELOW.

IN ADDITION...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER INTO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...WIND AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND CONNECTICUT RIVERS/STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW SEASONABLE
TEMPS.

THEREAFTER...AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RAINFALL AND MILD
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 250346
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1146 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL
DRAG A WARM FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY. THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL END UP NEAR CAPE COD BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM -3C
TO -5C...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S IN
NYC...AND IN THE MID 20S FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS. AREAS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY WILL
RADIATE QUITE WELL...AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS THERE.

AVERAGE LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE TYPICALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...SO LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS
DURING THE DAY. THAT LOW WILL ALSO CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH...IT MAY KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION AT BAY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. BUT THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S...AND THEN TEMPS WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP...NEAR FULL LATITUDE...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITES STATES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITES STATES. WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND TROUGH
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS FOR THE PROGRESSION OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY. WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
AREA BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING OF 50 KT TO 60 KT. IN ADDITION THERE AREA WILL BE
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL JET. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
SURFACE CAPE OF 200 TO 300 J/KG. SO HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STILL EXPECT ALL LIQUID AS THE COLDER
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS DECREASE TO
3500-6000FT AFTER 19Z. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AT WESTERN
TERMINALS AFTER 20Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW
TO REFLECT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SE- SSE WINDS
10KT OR LESS DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE OF GUSTS AROUND 15 TO MAYBE 20 KT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO
REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
RAIN SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR
OR LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE
OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TO 10-15 KT AND OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT.

WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY...WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS ON THE FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND SHIFTS TO
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME GUSTS
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT MAY GUST TO SMALL CRAFT THEN DIMINISH BELOW.

IN ADDITION...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER INTO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...WIND AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND CONNECTICUT RIVERS/STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW SEASONABLE
TEMPS.

THEREAFTER...AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RAINFALL AND MILD
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 250144
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
944 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL
DRAG A WARM FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY. THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL END UP NEAR CAPE COD BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM -3C
TO -5C...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S IN
NYC...AND IN THE MID 20S FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS. AREAS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY WILL
RADIATE QUITE WELL...AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS THERE.

AVERAGE LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE TYPICALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...SO LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS
DURING THE DAY. THAT LOW WILL ALSO CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH...IT MAY KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION AT BAY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. BUT THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S...AND THEN TEMPS WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP...NEAR FULL LATITUDE...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITES STATES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITES STATES. WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND TROUGH
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS FOR THE PROGRESSION OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY. WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
AREA BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING OF 50 KT TO 60 KT. IN ADDITION THERE AREA WILL BE
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL JET. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
SURFACE CAPE OF 200 TO 300 J/KG. SO HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STILL EXPECT ALL LIQUID AS THE COLDER
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. CEILINGS DECREASE TO 3500-6000FT AFTER
19Z. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AT WESTERN TERMINALS AFTER
20Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN
TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SE- SSE
WINDS 10KT OR LESS DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE OF GUSTS AROUND 15 TO MAYBE 20 KT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO
REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
RAIN SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR
OR LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE
OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TO 10-15 KT AND OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT.

WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY...WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS ON THE FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND SHIFTS TO
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME GUSTS
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT MAY GUST TO SMALL CRAFT THEN DIMINISH BELOW.

IN ADDITION...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER INTO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...WIND AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND CONNECTICUT RIVERS/STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW SEASONABLE
TEMPS.

THEREAFTER...AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RAINFALL AND MILD
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 250144
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
944 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL
DRAG A WARM FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY. THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL END UP NEAR CAPE COD BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM -3C
TO -5C...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S IN
NYC...AND IN THE MID 20S FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS. AREAS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY WILL
RADIATE QUITE WELL...AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS THERE.

AVERAGE LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE TYPICALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...SO LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS
DURING THE DAY. THAT LOW WILL ALSO CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH...IT MAY KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION AT BAY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. BUT THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S...AND THEN TEMPS WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP...NEAR FULL LATITUDE...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITES STATES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITES STATES. WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND TROUGH
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS FOR THE PROGRESSION OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY. WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
AREA BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING OF 50 KT TO 60 KT. IN ADDITION THERE AREA WILL BE
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL JET. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
SURFACE CAPE OF 200 TO 300 J/KG. SO HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STILL EXPECT ALL LIQUID AS THE COLDER
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. CEILINGS DECREASE TO 3500-6000FT AFTER
19Z. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AT WESTERN TERMINALS AFTER
20Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN
TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SE- SSE
WINDS 10KT OR LESS DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE OF GUSTS AROUND 15 TO MAYBE 20 KT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO
REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
RAIN SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR
OR LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE
OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TO 10-15 KT AND OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT.

WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY...WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS ON THE FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND SHIFTS TO
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME GUSTS
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT MAY GUST TO SMALL CRAFT THEN DIMINISH BELOW.

IN ADDITION...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER INTO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...WIND AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND CONNECTICUT RIVERS/STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW SEASONABLE
TEMPS.

THEREAFTER...AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RAINFALL AND MILD
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 250144
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
944 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL
DRAG A WARM FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY. THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL END UP NEAR CAPE COD BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM -3C
TO -5C...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S IN
NYC...AND IN THE MID 20S FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS. AREAS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY WILL
RADIATE QUITE WELL...AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS THERE.

AVERAGE LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE TYPICALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...SO LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS
DURING THE DAY. THAT LOW WILL ALSO CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH...IT MAY KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION AT BAY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. BUT THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S...AND THEN TEMPS WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP...NEAR FULL LATITUDE...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITES STATES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITES STATES. WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND TROUGH
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS FOR THE PROGRESSION OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY. WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
AREA BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING OF 50 KT TO 60 KT. IN ADDITION THERE AREA WILL BE
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL JET. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
SURFACE CAPE OF 200 TO 300 J/KG. SO HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STILL EXPECT ALL LIQUID AS THE COLDER
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. CEILINGS DECREASE TO 3500-6000FT AFTER
19Z. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AT WESTERN TERMINALS AFTER
20Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN
TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SE- SSE
WINDS 10KT OR LESS DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE OF GUSTS AROUND 15 TO MAYBE 20 KT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO
REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
RAIN SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR
OR LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE
OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TO 10-15 KT AND OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT.

WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY...WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS ON THE FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND SHIFTS TO
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME GUSTS
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT MAY GUST TO SMALL CRAFT THEN DIMINISH BELOW.

IN ADDITION...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER INTO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...WIND AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND CONNECTICUT RIVERS/STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW SEASONABLE
TEMPS.

THEREAFTER...AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RAINFALL AND MILD
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 250144
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
944 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL
DRAG A WARM FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY. THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL END UP NEAR CAPE COD BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM -3C
TO -5C...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S IN
NYC...AND IN THE MID 20S FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS. AREAS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY WILL
RADIATE QUITE WELL...AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS THERE.

AVERAGE LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE TYPICALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...SO LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS
DURING THE DAY. THAT LOW WILL ALSO CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH...IT MAY KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION AT BAY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. BUT THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S...AND THEN TEMPS WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP...NEAR FULL LATITUDE...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITES STATES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITES STATES. WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND TROUGH
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS FOR THE PROGRESSION OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY. WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
AREA BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING OF 50 KT TO 60 KT. IN ADDITION THERE AREA WILL BE
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL JET. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
SURFACE CAPE OF 200 TO 300 J/KG. SO HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STILL EXPECT ALL LIQUID AS THE COLDER
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. CEILINGS DECREASE TO 3500-6000FT AFTER
19Z. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AT WESTERN TERMINALS AFTER
20Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN
TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SE- SSE
WINDS 10KT OR LESS DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE OF GUSTS AROUND 15 TO MAYBE 20 KT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO
REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
RAIN SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR
OR LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE
OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TO 10-15 KT AND OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT.

WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY...WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS ON THE FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND SHIFTS TO
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME GUSTS
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT MAY GUST TO SMALL CRAFT THEN DIMINISH BELOW.

IN ADDITION...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER INTO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...WIND AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND CONNECTICUT RIVERS/STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW SEASONABLE
TEMPS.

THEREAFTER...AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RAINFALL AND MILD
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 242355
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
755 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL
DRAG A WARM FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY. THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL END UP NEAR CAPE COD BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

AS A RESULT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM -3C TO -5C...IT WILL BE
QUITE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S IN NYC...AND IN THE MID 20S
FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS. AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE PINE
BARRENS OF EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY WILL RADIATE QUITE WELL...AND
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS THERE.

AVERAGE LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE TYPICALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...SO LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS
DURING THE DAY. THAT LOW WILL ALSO CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH...IT MAY KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION AT BAY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. BUT THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S...AND THEN TEMPS WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP...NEAR FULL LATITUDE...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITES STATES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITES STATES. WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND TROUGH
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS FOR THE PROGRESSION OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY. WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
AREA BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING OF 50 KT TO 60 KT. IN ADDITION THERE AREA WILL BE
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL JET. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
SURFACE CAPE OF 200 TO 300 J/KG. SO HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STILL EXPECT ALL LIQUID AS THE COLDER
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. CEILINGS DECREASE TO 3500-6000FT AFTER
19Z. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AT WESTERN TERMINALS AFTER
20Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN
TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SE- SSE
WINDS 10KT OR LESS DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE OF GUSTS AROUND 15 TO MAYBE 20 KT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO
REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
RAIN SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR
OR LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE
OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TO 10-15 KT AND OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT.

WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY...WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS ON THE FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND SHIFTS TO
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME GUSTS
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT MAY GUST TO SMALL CRAFT THEN DIMINISH BELOW.

IN ADDITION...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER INTO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...WIND AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND CONNECTICUT RIVERS/STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW SEASONABLE
TEMPS.

THEREAFTER...AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RAINFALL AND MILD
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 242355
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
755 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL
DRAG A WARM FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY. THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL END UP NEAR CAPE COD BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

AS A RESULT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM -3C TO -5C...IT WILL BE
QUITE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S IN NYC...AND IN THE MID 20S
FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS. AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE PINE
BARRENS OF EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY WILL RADIATE QUITE WELL...AND
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS THERE.

AVERAGE LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE TYPICALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...SO LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS
DURING THE DAY. THAT LOW WILL ALSO CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH...IT MAY KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION AT BAY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. BUT THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S...AND THEN TEMPS WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP...NEAR FULL LATITUDE...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITES STATES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITES STATES. WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND TROUGH
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS FOR THE PROGRESSION OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY. WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
AREA BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING OF 50 KT TO 60 KT. IN ADDITION THERE AREA WILL BE
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL JET. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
SURFACE CAPE OF 200 TO 300 J/KG. SO HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STILL EXPECT ALL LIQUID AS THE COLDER
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. CEILINGS DECREASE TO 3500-6000FT AFTER
19Z. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AT WESTERN TERMINALS AFTER
20Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN
TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SE- SSE
WINDS 10KT OR LESS DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE OF GUSTS AROUND 15 TO MAYBE 20 KT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO
REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
RAIN SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR
OR LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE
OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TO 10-15 KT AND OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT.

WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY...WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS ON THE FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND SHIFTS TO
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME GUSTS
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT MAY GUST TO SMALL CRAFT THEN DIMINISH BELOW.

IN ADDITION...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER INTO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...WIND AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND CONNECTICUT RIVERS/STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW SEASONABLE
TEMPS.

THEREAFTER...AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RAINFALL AND MILD
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 242355
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
755 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL
DRAG A WARM FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY. THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL END UP NEAR CAPE COD BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

AS A RESULT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM -3C TO -5C...IT WILL BE
QUITE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S IN NYC...AND IN THE MID 20S
FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS. AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE PINE
BARRENS OF EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY WILL RADIATE QUITE WELL...AND
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS THERE.

AVERAGE LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE TYPICALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...SO LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS
DURING THE DAY. THAT LOW WILL ALSO CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH...IT MAY KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION AT BAY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. BUT THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S...AND THEN TEMPS WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP...NEAR FULL LATITUDE...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITES STATES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITES STATES. WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND TROUGH
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS FOR THE PROGRESSION OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY. WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
AREA BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING OF 50 KT TO 60 KT. IN ADDITION THERE AREA WILL BE
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL JET. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
SURFACE CAPE OF 200 TO 300 J/KG. SO HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STILL EXPECT ALL LIQUID AS THE COLDER
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. CEILINGS DECREASE TO 3500-6000FT AFTER
19Z. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AT WESTERN TERMINALS AFTER
20Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN
TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SE- SSE
WINDS 10KT OR LESS DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE OF GUSTS AROUND 15 TO MAYBE 20 KT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO
REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
RAIN SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR
OR LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE
OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TO 10-15 KT AND OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT.

WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY...WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS ON THE FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND SHIFTS TO
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME GUSTS
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT MAY GUST TO SMALL CRAFT THEN DIMINISH BELOW.

IN ADDITION...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER INTO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...WIND AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND CONNECTICUT RIVERS/STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW SEASONABLE
TEMPS.

THEREAFTER...AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RAINFALL AND MILD
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 242355
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
755 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL
DRAG A WARM FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY. THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL END UP NEAR CAPE COD BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

AS A RESULT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM -3C TO -5C...IT WILL BE
QUITE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S IN NYC...AND IN THE MID 20S
FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS. AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE PINE
BARRENS OF EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY WILL RADIATE QUITE WELL...AND
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS THERE.

AVERAGE LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE TYPICALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...SO LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS
DURING THE DAY. THAT LOW WILL ALSO CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH...IT MAY KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION AT BAY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. BUT THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S...AND THEN TEMPS WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP...NEAR FULL LATITUDE...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITES STATES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITES STATES. WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND TROUGH
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS FOR THE PROGRESSION OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY. WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
AREA BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING OF 50 KT TO 60 KT. IN ADDITION THERE AREA WILL BE
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL JET. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
SURFACE CAPE OF 200 TO 300 J/KG. SO HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STILL EXPECT ALL LIQUID AS THE COLDER
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. CEILINGS DECREASE TO 3500-6000FT AFTER
19Z. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AT WESTERN TERMINALS AFTER
20Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN
TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SE- SSE
WINDS 10KT OR LESS DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE OF GUSTS AROUND 15 TO MAYBE 20 KT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO
REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
RAIN SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR
OR LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE
OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TO 10-15 KT AND OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT.

WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY...WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS ON THE FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND SHIFTS TO
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME GUSTS
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT MAY GUST TO SMALL CRAFT THEN DIMINISH BELOW.

IN ADDITION...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER INTO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...WIND AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND CONNECTICUT RIVERS/STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW SEASONABLE
TEMPS.

THEREAFTER...AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RAINFALL AND MILD
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 242006
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
406 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG
A WARM FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THURSDAY. THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL END UP NEAR CAPE COD BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL DEPART THIS
EVENING...AND THEN ANY CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE WITH
ITS DEPARTURE AND THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD.

AS A RESULT...WILL EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM -3C TO -5C...IT WILL BE
QUITE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S IN NYC...AND IN THE MID 20S
FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS. AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE PINE
BARRENS OF EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY WILL RADIATE QUITE WELL...AND
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS THERE.

AVERAGE LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE TYPICALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...SO LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS
DURING THE DAY. THAT LOW WILL ALSO CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH...IT MAY KEEP THE PRECIP
AT BAY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. BUT THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S...AND THEN TEMPS WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP...NEAR FULL
LATITUDE...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL UNITES STATES THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITES STATES.
WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND TROUGH HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS FOR THE PROGRESSION OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY. WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING
INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAVE
WILL MOVE WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING OF 50 KT TO 60 KT. IN
ADDITION THERE AREA WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL JET. THE
COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SURFACE CAPE OF 200 TO 300 J/KG. SO
HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STILL EXPECT ALL LIQUID AS THE COLDER
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WED MORNING...
THEN EAST IN THE AFT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

A WEAK NLY FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST AS A WEAK
SEABREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
BECOME S/SE WED MORNING.

VFR. CLOUDS INCREASE WED AFT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT WINDS MAY VARY FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE THIS AFT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK LATE DAY SEABREEZE MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK LATE DAY SEABREEZE MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK LATE DAY SEABREEZE MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT WINDS MAY VARY FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE THIS AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS. S-
SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN
SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE. SW WINDS 10-20KT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA/-SHSN.
.SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN ANY
-SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE
OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TO 10-15 KT AND OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT.

WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY...WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS ON THE FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME GUSTS JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT MAY GUST TO SMALL CRAFT THEN DIMINISH BELOW.

IN ADDITION...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER INTO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...WIND AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND CONNECTICUT RIVERS/STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO DRY CONDS AND WELL BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THEREAFTER...AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RAINFALL AND MILD
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 242006
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
406 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG
A WARM FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THURSDAY. THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL END UP NEAR CAPE COD BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL DEPART THIS
EVENING...AND THEN ANY CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE WITH
ITS DEPARTURE AND THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD.

AS A RESULT...WILL EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM -3C TO -5C...IT WILL BE
QUITE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S IN NYC...AND IN THE MID 20S
FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS. AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE PINE
BARRENS OF EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY WILL RADIATE QUITE WELL...AND
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS THERE.

AVERAGE LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE TYPICALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...SO LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS
DURING THE DAY. THAT LOW WILL ALSO CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH...IT MAY KEEP THE PRECIP
AT BAY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. BUT THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S...AND THEN TEMPS WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP...NEAR FULL
LATITUDE...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL UNITES STATES THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITES STATES.
WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND TROUGH HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS FOR THE PROGRESSION OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY. WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING
INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAVE
WILL MOVE WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING OF 50 KT TO 60 KT. IN
ADDITION THERE AREA WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL JET. THE
COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SURFACE CAPE OF 200 TO 300 J/KG. SO
HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STILL EXPECT ALL LIQUID AS THE COLDER
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WED MORNING...
THEN EAST IN THE AFT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

A WEAK NLY FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST AS A WEAK
SEABREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
BECOME S/SE WED MORNING.

VFR. CLOUDS INCREASE WED AFT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT WINDS MAY VARY FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE THIS AFT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK LATE DAY SEABREEZE MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK LATE DAY SEABREEZE MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK LATE DAY SEABREEZE MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT WINDS MAY VARY FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE THIS AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS. S-
SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN
SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE. SW WINDS 10-20KT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA/-SHSN.
.SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN ANY
-SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE
OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TO 10-15 KT AND OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT.

WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY...WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS ON THE FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME GUSTS JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT MAY GUST TO SMALL CRAFT THEN DIMINISH BELOW.

IN ADDITION...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER INTO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...WIND AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND CONNECTICUT RIVERS/STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO DRY CONDS AND WELL BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THEREAFTER...AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RAINFALL AND MILD
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 242006
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
406 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG
A WARM FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THURSDAY. THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL END UP NEAR CAPE COD BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL DEPART THIS
EVENING...AND THEN ANY CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE WITH
ITS DEPARTURE AND THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD.

AS A RESULT...WILL EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM -3C TO -5C...IT WILL BE
QUITE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S IN NYC...AND IN THE MID 20S
FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS. AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE PINE
BARRENS OF EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY WILL RADIATE QUITE WELL...AND
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS THERE.

AVERAGE LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE TYPICALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...SO LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS
DURING THE DAY. THAT LOW WILL ALSO CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH...IT MAY KEEP THE PRECIP
AT BAY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. BUT THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S...AND THEN TEMPS WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP...NEAR FULL
LATITUDE...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL UNITES STATES THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITES STATES.
WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND TROUGH HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS FOR THE PROGRESSION OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY. WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING
INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAVE
WILL MOVE WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING OF 50 KT TO 60 KT. IN
ADDITION THERE AREA WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL JET. THE
COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SURFACE CAPE OF 200 TO 300 J/KG. SO
HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STILL EXPECT ALL LIQUID AS THE COLDER
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WED MORNING...
THEN EAST IN THE AFT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

A WEAK NLY FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST AS A WEAK
SEABREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
BECOME S/SE WED MORNING.

VFR. CLOUDS INCREASE WED AFT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT WINDS MAY VARY FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE THIS AFT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK LATE DAY SEABREEZE MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK LATE DAY SEABREEZE MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK LATE DAY SEABREEZE MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT WINDS MAY VARY FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE THIS AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS. S-
SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN
SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE. SW WINDS 10-20KT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA/-SHSN.
.SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN ANY
-SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE
OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TO 10-15 KT AND OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT.

WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY...WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS ON THE FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME GUSTS JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT MAY GUST TO SMALL CRAFT THEN DIMINISH BELOW.

IN ADDITION...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER INTO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...WIND AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND CONNECTICUT RIVERS/STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO DRY CONDS AND WELL BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THEREAFTER...AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RAINFALL AND MILD
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 242006
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
406 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG
A WARM FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THURSDAY. THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL END UP NEAR CAPE COD BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL DEPART THIS
EVENING...AND THEN ANY CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE WITH
ITS DEPARTURE AND THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD.

AS A RESULT...WILL EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM -3C TO -5C...IT WILL BE
QUITE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S IN NYC...AND IN THE MID 20S
FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS. AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE PINE
BARRENS OF EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY WILL RADIATE QUITE WELL...AND
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS THERE.

AVERAGE LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE TYPICALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...SO LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS
DURING THE DAY. THAT LOW WILL ALSO CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH...IT MAY KEEP THE PRECIP
AT BAY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. BUT THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S...AND THEN TEMPS WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP...NEAR FULL
LATITUDE...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL UNITES STATES THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITES STATES.
WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND TROUGH HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS FOR THE PROGRESSION OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY. WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING
INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAVE
WILL MOVE WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING OF 50 KT TO 60 KT. IN
ADDITION THERE AREA WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL JET. THE
COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SURFACE CAPE OF 200 TO 300 J/KG. SO
HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STILL EXPECT ALL LIQUID AS THE COLDER
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WED MORNING...
THEN EAST IN THE AFT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

A WEAK NLY FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST AS A WEAK
SEABREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
BECOME S/SE WED MORNING.

VFR. CLOUDS INCREASE WED AFT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT WINDS MAY VARY FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE THIS AFT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK LATE DAY SEABREEZE MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK LATE DAY SEABREEZE MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK LATE DAY SEABREEZE MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT WINDS MAY VARY FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE THIS AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS. S-
SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN
SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE. SW WINDS 10-20KT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA/-SHSN.
.SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN ANY
-SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE
OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TO 10-15 KT AND OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT.

WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY...WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS ON THE FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME GUSTS JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT MAY GUST TO SMALL CRAFT THEN DIMINISH BELOW.

IN ADDITION...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER INTO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...WIND AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND CONNECTICUT RIVERS/STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO DRY CONDS AND WELL BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THEREAFTER...AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RAINFALL AND MILD
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241816
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
216 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...PASSING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY...AND
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
TO END THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION AS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD.

LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW MAY GIVE WAY TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COASTS.

CHILLY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WILL FOLLOW A
STATISTICAL MOS BLEND...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND
40...WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AS RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL VARY ACROSS
THE CWA. EXPECT A RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN AND AROUND NYC
METRO...TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN
LONG ISLAND.

THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES. AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST...SOUTH
FLOW WILL PREVAIL. ALOFT...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND OUT AHEAD OF UPSTREAM TROUGH. AS
SUCH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AND SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT TOO
CONFIDENT ON EXTENT OF SHOWER COVERAGE THIS FAR SOUTH...WITH GREATER
LIFT TO THE NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE RANGE FOR LATER IN THE DAY...WEST TO EAST.

WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL BY ALMOST 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED AND THEN SHEARING INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WED NIGHT/THU. THEREAFTER...GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVE...DEEPENING A CENTRAL US THROUGH THE MID/LATE WEEK AS
WESTERN US RIDGING BUILDS. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE
EAST COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN
THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
WEEKEND BEFORE IT SLIDES THROUGH TO END THE WEEKEND. THEN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE TRACKING WELL TO
THE NW OF THE REGION WED NIGHT...THE BETTER LIFT WILL REMAIN WELL NW
OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATE WED/WED
EVENING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY/AND LLJ MOVING THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COOL AND DAMP WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG LIKELY WED NIGHT WITH
WAA ALOFT BUT SURFACE WARM FRONT LIKELY STILL WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE REGION BASED ON CLIMO AND SURFACE LOW TRACK.

THEN INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THU WITH INCREASING
SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST. TREND WITH THIS AMPLIFIED SYSTEM HAS
BEEN SLOWER PROGRESSION. WARM FRONT MAY JUMP THROUGH PARTS OF THE
REGION THURSDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND EXTENT BASED ON COLD
OCEAN WATERS. SO TEMPS COULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS
NE NJ...TO AROUND 50 DEGREES FOR SE COASTAL AREAS.

GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE TAP AND STRENGTHENING FORCING AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS. STRONG LLJ THU
AFT/EVE MAY EVEN BRING IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALOFT...SO
HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO
LIKELY WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER COLD WATERS ALONG THE COAST
AND SOME LINGERING SNOWPACK ACROSS INTERIOR.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED THU EVENING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH
AND APPROACHING STRONG UPPER JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR A
BAND OF LINGERING ANAFRONTAL RAIN TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THU
NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING LATE.

LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED...MAINLY DIURNAL...SHOWER ACTIVITY
CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE DEEP TROUGH TROUGH SLIDING
THROUGH. CAA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX
WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE
PROB OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH CUTOFF UPPER LOW AND INVERTED
TROUGH AS DEPICTED BY GFS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN SUNDAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS AND DRYING CONDS. FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
PIVOTING THROUGH THE NE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WED MORNING...
THEN EAST IN THE AFT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

A WEAK NLY FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST AS A WEAK
SEABREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
BECOME S/SE WED MORNING.

VFR. CLOUDS INCREASE WED AFT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT WINDS MAY VARY FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE THIS AFT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK LATE DAY SEABREEZE MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK LATE DAY SEABREEZE MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK LATE DAY SEABREEZE MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT WINDS MAY VARY FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE THIS AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS. S-
SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN
SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE. SW WINDS 10-20KT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA/-SHSN.
.SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN ANY
-SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS WINDS LIGHTEN WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE.
THIS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE WEDNESDAY AND A DEEPENING LOW MOVES
FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING. MARGINAL SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE
WED EVE ACROSS THE OCEAN AS LLJ MOVES ACROSS.

HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF SCA CONDS WILL BE THU FOR OCEAN AND POSSIBLE
ALL WATERS WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON INTENSITY OF WINDS BASED ON STRONG INVERSION
DEVELOPMENT...BUT LONG FETCH SHOULD ALLOW SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD
TO 8 TO 12 FT ON THU AND CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT.

IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY FRI NIGHT WITH SCA SOUTHERLY SWELLS LINGERING.
SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON OCEAN SAT AFT/NIGHT WITH STRONG CAA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CONNECTICUT
RIVERS/STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
DUE TO DRY CONDS AND WELL BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THEREAFTER...1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RAINFALL AND
MILD TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE MID
TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF
THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM
FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED
RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NV/PW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...NV/PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241816
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
216 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...PASSING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY...AND
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
TO END THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION AS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD.

LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW MAY GIVE WAY TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COASTS.

CHILLY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WILL FOLLOW A
STATISTICAL MOS BLEND...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND
40...WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AS RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL VARY ACROSS
THE CWA. EXPECT A RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN AND AROUND NYC
METRO...TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN
LONG ISLAND.

THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES. AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST...SOUTH
FLOW WILL PREVAIL. ALOFT...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND OUT AHEAD OF UPSTREAM TROUGH. AS
SUCH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AND SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT TOO
CONFIDENT ON EXTENT OF SHOWER COVERAGE THIS FAR SOUTH...WITH GREATER
LIFT TO THE NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE RANGE FOR LATER IN THE DAY...WEST TO EAST.

WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL BY ALMOST 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED AND THEN SHEARING INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WED NIGHT/THU. THEREAFTER...GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVE...DEEPENING A CENTRAL US THROUGH THE MID/LATE WEEK AS
WESTERN US RIDGING BUILDS. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE
EAST COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN
THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
WEEKEND BEFORE IT SLIDES THROUGH TO END THE WEEKEND. THEN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE TRACKING WELL TO
THE NW OF THE REGION WED NIGHT...THE BETTER LIFT WILL REMAIN WELL NW
OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATE WED/WED
EVENING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY/AND LLJ MOVING THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COOL AND DAMP WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG LIKELY WED NIGHT WITH
WAA ALOFT BUT SURFACE WARM FRONT LIKELY STILL WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE REGION BASED ON CLIMO AND SURFACE LOW TRACK.

THEN INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THU WITH INCREASING
SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST. TREND WITH THIS AMPLIFIED SYSTEM HAS
BEEN SLOWER PROGRESSION. WARM FRONT MAY JUMP THROUGH PARTS OF THE
REGION THURSDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND EXTENT BASED ON COLD
OCEAN WATERS. SO TEMPS COULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS
NE NJ...TO AROUND 50 DEGREES FOR SE COASTAL AREAS.

GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE TAP AND STRENGTHENING FORCING AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS. STRONG LLJ THU
AFT/EVE MAY EVEN BRING IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALOFT...SO
HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO
LIKELY WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER COLD WATERS ALONG THE COAST
AND SOME LINGERING SNOWPACK ACROSS INTERIOR.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED THU EVENING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH
AND APPROACHING STRONG UPPER JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR A
BAND OF LINGERING ANAFRONTAL RAIN TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THU
NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING LATE.

LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED...MAINLY DIURNAL...SHOWER ACTIVITY
CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE DEEP TROUGH TROUGH SLIDING
THROUGH. CAA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX
WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE
PROB OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH CUTOFF UPPER LOW AND INVERTED
TROUGH AS DEPICTED BY GFS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN SUNDAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS AND DRYING CONDS. FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
PIVOTING THROUGH THE NE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WED MORNING...
THEN EAST IN THE AFT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

A WEAK NLY FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST AS A WEAK
SEABREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
BECOME S/SE WED MORNING.

VFR. CLOUDS INCREASE WED AFT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT WINDS MAY VARY FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE THIS AFT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK LATE DAY SEABREEZE MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK LATE DAY SEABREEZE MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK LATE DAY SEABREEZE MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT WINDS MAY VARY FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE THIS AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS. S-
SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN
SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE. SW WINDS 10-20KT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA/-SHSN.
.SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN ANY
-SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS WINDS LIGHTEN WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE.
THIS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE WEDNESDAY AND A DEEPENING LOW MOVES
FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING. MARGINAL SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE
WED EVE ACROSS THE OCEAN AS LLJ MOVES ACROSS.

HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF SCA CONDS WILL BE THU FOR OCEAN AND POSSIBLE
ALL WATERS WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON INTENSITY OF WINDS BASED ON STRONG INVERSION
DEVELOPMENT...BUT LONG FETCH SHOULD ALLOW SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD
TO 8 TO 12 FT ON THU AND CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT.

IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY FRI NIGHT WITH SCA SOUTHERLY SWELLS LINGERING.
SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON OCEAN SAT AFT/NIGHT WITH STRONG CAA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CONNECTICUT
RIVERS/STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
DUE TO DRY CONDS AND WELL BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THEREAFTER...1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RAINFALL AND
MILD TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE MID
TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF
THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM
FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED
RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NV/PW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...NV/PW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 241615
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1215 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...PASSING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY...AND
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
TO END THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION AS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD.

LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW MAY GIVE WAY TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COASTS.

CHILLY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WILL FOLLOW A
STATISTICAL MOS BLEND...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND
40...WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AS RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL VARY ACROSS
THE CWA. EXPECT A RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN AND AROUND NYC
METRO...TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN
LONG ISLAND.

THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES. AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST...SOUTH
FLOW WILL PREVAIL. ALOFT...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND OUT AHEAD OF UPSTREAM TROUGH. AS
SUCH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AND SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT TOO
CONFIDENT ON EXTENT OF SHOWER COVERAGE THIS FAR SOUTH...WITH GREATER
LIFT TO THE NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE RANGE FOR LATER IN THE DAY...WEST TO EAST.

WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL BY ALMOST 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED AND THEN SHEARING INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WED NIGHT/THU. THEREAFTER...GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVE...DEEPENING A CENTRAL US THROUGH THE MID/LATE WEEK AS
WESTERN US RIDGING BUILDS. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE
EAST COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN
THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
WEEKEND BEFORE IT SLIDES THROUGH TO END THE WEEKEND. THEN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE TRACKING WELL TO
THE NW OF THE REGION WED NIGHT...THE BETTER LIFT WILL REMAIN WELL NW
OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATE WED/WED
EVENING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY/AND LLJ MOVING THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COOL AND DAMP WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG LIKELY WED NIGHT WITH
WAA ALOFT BUT SURFACE WARM FRONT LIKELY STILL WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE REGION BASED ON CLIMO AND SURFACE LOW TRACK.

THEN INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THU WITH INCREASING
SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST. TREND WITH THIS AMPLIFIED SYSTEM HAS
BEEN SLOWER PROGRESSION. WARM FRONT MAY JUMP THROUGH PARTS OF THE
REGION THURSDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND EXTENT BASED ON COLD
OCEAN WATERS. SO TEMPS COULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS
NE NJ...TO AROUND 50 DEGREES FOR SE COASTAL AREAS.

GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE TAP AND STRENGTHENING FORCING AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS. STRONG LLJ THU
AFT/EVE MAY EVEN BRING IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALOFT...SO
HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO
LIKELY WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER COLD WATERS ALONG THE COAST
AND SOME LINGERING SNOWPACK ACROSS INTERIOR.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED THU EVENING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH
AND APPROACHING STRONG UPPER JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR A
BAND OF LINGERING ANAFRONTAL RAIN TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THU
NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING LATE.

LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED...MAINLY DIURNAL...SHOWER ACTIVITY
CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE DEEP TROUGH TROUGH SLIDING
THROUGH. CAA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX
WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE
PROB OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH CUTOFF UPPER LOW AND INVERTED
TROUGH AS DEPICTED BY GFS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN SUNDAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS AND DRYING CONDS. FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
PIVOTING THROUGH THE NE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT N FLOW AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WILL FURTHER DECREASE
TODAY.

THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. IN
ADDITION...LIGHT SEA BREEZES DEVELOP EARLY/MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING OF AROUND 5-6 KT. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES CARRIES
SOME UNCERTAINTY...SO THEY COULD DIFFER FROM THE FORECAST BY A FEW
HOURS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF LIGHT SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE +/- 1
TO 2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF LIGHT SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE +/- 1
TO 2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF LIGHT SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE +/- 1
TO 2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT
RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF LIGHT SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE +/- 1
TO 2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: A LOW CHANCE OF A LIGHT SEA BREEZE 21Z-00Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF LIGHT SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE +/- 1
TO 2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS. S-
SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN
SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE. SW WINDS 10-20KT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA/-SHSN.
.SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN ANY
-SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS WINDS LIGHTEN WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE.
THIS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE WEDNESDAY AND A DEEPENING LOW MOVES
FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING. MARGINAL SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE
WED EVE ACROSS THE OCEAN AS LLJ MOVES ACROSS.

HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF SCA CONDS WILL BE THU FOR OCEAN AND POSSIBLE
ALL WATERS WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON INTENSITY OF WINDS BASED ON STRONG INVERSION
DEVELOPMENT...BUT LONG FETCH SHOULD ALLOW SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD
TO 8 TO 12 FT ON THU AND CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT.

IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY FRI NIGHT WITH SCA SOUTHERLY SWELLS LINGERING.
SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON OCEAN SAT AFT/NIGHT WITH STRONG CAA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CONNECTICUT
RIVERS/STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
DUE TO DRY CONDS AND WELL BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THEREAFTER...1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RAINFALL AND
MILD TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE MID
TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF
THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM
FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED
RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/PW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JM/DW
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...NV/PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241615
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1215 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...PASSING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY...AND
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
TO END THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION AS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD.

LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW MAY GIVE WAY TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COASTS.

CHILLY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WILL FOLLOW A
STATISTICAL MOS BLEND...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND
40...WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AS RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL VARY ACROSS
THE CWA. EXPECT A RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN AND AROUND NYC
METRO...TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN
LONG ISLAND.

THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES. AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST...SOUTH
FLOW WILL PREVAIL. ALOFT...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND OUT AHEAD OF UPSTREAM TROUGH. AS
SUCH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AND SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT TOO
CONFIDENT ON EXTENT OF SHOWER COVERAGE THIS FAR SOUTH...WITH GREATER
LIFT TO THE NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE RANGE FOR LATER IN THE DAY...WEST TO EAST.

WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL BY ALMOST 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED AND THEN SHEARING INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WED NIGHT/THU. THEREAFTER...GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVE...DEEPENING A CENTRAL US THROUGH THE MID/LATE WEEK AS
WESTERN US RIDGING BUILDS. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE
EAST COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN
THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
WEEKEND BEFORE IT SLIDES THROUGH TO END THE WEEKEND. THEN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE TRACKING WELL TO
THE NW OF THE REGION WED NIGHT...THE BETTER LIFT WILL REMAIN WELL NW
OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATE WED/WED
EVENING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY/AND LLJ MOVING THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COOL AND DAMP WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG LIKELY WED NIGHT WITH
WAA ALOFT BUT SURFACE WARM FRONT LIKELY STILL WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE REGION BASED ON CLIMO AND SURFACE LOW TRACK.

THEN INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THU WITH INCREASING
SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST. TREND WITH THIS AMPLIFIED SYSTEM HAS
BEEN SLOWER PROGRESSION. WARM FRONT MAY JUMP THROUGH PARTS OF THE
REGION THURSDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND EXTENT BASED ON COLD
OCEAN WATERS. SO TEMPS COULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS
NE NJ...TO AROUND 50 DEGREES FOR SE COASTAL AREAS.

GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE TAP AND STRENGTHENING FORCING AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS. STRONG LLJ THU
AFT/EVE MAY EVEN BRING IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALOFT...SO
HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO
LIKELY WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER COLD WATERS ALONG THE COAST
AND SOME LINGERING SNOWPACK ACROSS INTERIOR.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED THU EVENING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH
AND APPROACHING STRONG UPPER JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR A
BAND OF LINGERING ANAFRONTAL RAIN TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THU
NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING LATE.

LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED...MAINLY DIURNAL...SHOWER ACTIVITY
CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE DEEP TROUGH TROUGH SLIDING
THROUGH. CAA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX
WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE
PROB OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH CUTOFF UPPER LOW AND INVERTED
TROUGH AS DEPICTED BY GFS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN SUNDAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS AND DRYING CONDS. FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
PIVOTING THROUGH THE NE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT N FLOW AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WILL FURTHER DECREASE
TODAY.

THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. IN
ADDITION...LIGHT SEA BREEZES DEVELOP EARLY/MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING OF AROUND 5-6 KT. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES CARRIES
SOME UNCERTAINTY...SO THEY COULD DIFFER FROM THE FORECAST BY A FEW
HOURS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF LIGHT SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE +/- 1
TO 2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF LIGHT SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE +/- 1
TO 2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF LIGHT SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE +/- 1
TO 2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT
RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF LIGHT SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE +/- 1
TO 2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: A LOW CHANCE OF A LIGHT SEA BREEZE 21Z-00Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF LIGHT SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE +/- 1
TO 2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS. S-
SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN
SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE. SW WINDS 10-20KT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA/-SHSN.
.SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN ANY
-SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS WINDS LIGHTEN WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE.
THIS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE WEDNESDAY AND A DEEPENING LOW MOVES
FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING. MARGINAL SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE
WED EVE ACROSS THE OCEAN AS LLJ MOVES ACROSS.

HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF SCA CONDS WILL BE THU FOR OCEAN AND POSSIBLE
ALL WATERS WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON INTENSITY OF WINDS BASED ON STRONG INVERSION
DEVELOPMENT...BUT LONG FETCH SHOULD ALLOW SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD
TO 8 TO 12 FT ON THU AND CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT.

IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY FRI NIGHT WITH SCA SOUTHERLY SWELLS LINGERING.
SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON OCEAN SAT AFT/NIGHT WITH STRONG CAA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CONNECTICUT
RIVERS/STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
DUE TO DRY CONDS AND WELL BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THEREAFTER...1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RAINFALL AND
MILD TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE MID
TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF
THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM
FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED
RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/PW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JM/DW
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...NV/PW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 241445
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1045 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...PASSING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY...AND
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
TO END THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER...
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INITIALLY...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW MAY GIVE WAY TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COASTS.

CHILLY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WILL FOLLOW A
STATISTICAL MOS BLEND...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND
40...WELL BELOW NORMAL. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE LIGHTER WINDS
WILL TAKE SOME OF THE CHILL OUT OF THE AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AS RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL VARY ACROSS
THE CWA. EXPECT A RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN AND AROUND NYC
METRO...TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN
LONG ISLAND.

THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES. AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST...SOUTH
FLOW WILL PREVAIL. ALOFT...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND OUT AHEAD OF UPSTREAM TROUGH. AS
SUCH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AND SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT TOO
CONFIDENT ON EXTENT OF SHOWER COVERAGE THIS FAR SOUTH...WITH GREATER
LIFT TO THE NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE RANGE FOR LATER IN THE DAY...WEST TO EAST.

WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL BY ALMOST 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED AND THEN SHEARING INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WED NIGHT/THU. THEREAFTER...GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVE...DEEPENING A CENTRAL US THROUGH THE MID/LATE WEEK AS
WESTERN US RIDGING BUILDS. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE
EAST COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN
THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
WEEKEND BEFORE IT SLIDES THROUGH TO END THE WEEKEND. THEN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE TRACKING WELL TO
THE NW OF THE REGION WED NIGHT...THE BETTER LIFT WILL REMAIN WELL NW
OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATE WED/WED
EVENING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY/AND LLJ MOVING THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COOL AND DAMP WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG LIKELY WED NIGHT WITH
WAA ALOFT BUT SURFACE WARM FRONT LIKELY STILL WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE REGION BASED ON CLIMO AND SURFACE LOW TRACK.

THEN INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THU WITH INCREASING
SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST. TREND WITH THIS AMPLIFIED SYSTEM HAS
BEEN SLOWER PROGRESSION. WARM FRONT MAY JUMP THROUGH PARTS OF THE
REGION THURSDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND EXTENT BASED ON COLD
OCEAN WATERS. SO TEMPS COULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS
NE NJ...TO AROUND 50 DEGREES FOR SE COASTAL AREAS.

GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE TAP AND STRENGTHENING FORCING AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS. STRONG LLJ THU
AFT/EVE MAY EVEN BRING IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALOFT...SO
HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO
LIKELY WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER COLD WATERS ALONG THE COAST
AND SOME LINGERING SNOWPACK ACROSS INTERIOR.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED THU EVENING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH
AND APPROACHING STRONG UPPER JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR A
BAND OF LINGERING ANAFRONTAL RAIN TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THU
NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING LATE.

LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED...MAINLY DIURNAL...SHOWER ACTIVITY
CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE DEEP TROUGH TROUGH SLIDING
THROUGH. CAA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX
WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE
PROB OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH CUTOFF UPPER LOW AND INVERTED
TROUGH AS DEPICTED BY GFS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN SUNDAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS AND DRYING CONDS. FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
PIVOTING THROUGH THE NE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT N FLOW AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WILL FURTHER DECREASE
TODAY.

THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. IN
ADDITION...LIGHT SEA BREEZES DEVELOP EARLY/MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING OF AROUND 5-6 KT. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES CARRIES
SOME UNCERTAINTY...SO THEY COULD DIFFER FROM THE FORECAST BY A FEW
HOURS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF LIGHT SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE +/- 1
TO 2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF LIGHT SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE +/- 1
TO 2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF LIGHT SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE +/- 1
TO 2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT
RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF LIGHT SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE +/- 1
TO 2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: A LOW CHANCE OF A LIGHT SEA BREEZE 21Z-00Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF LIGHT SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE +/- 1
TO 2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS. S-
SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN
SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE. SW WINDS 10-20KT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA/-SHSN.
.SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN ANY
-SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS WINDS LIGHTEN WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE.
THIS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE WEDNESDAY AND A DEEPENING LOW MOVES
FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING. MARGINAL SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE
WED EVE ACROSS THE OCEAN AS LLJ MOVES ACROSS.

HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF SCA CONDS WILL BE THU FOR OCEAN AND POSSIBLE
ALL WATERS WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON INTENSITY OF WINDS BASED ON STRONG INVERSION
DEVELOPMENT...BUT LONG FETCH SHOULD ALLOW SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD
TO 8 TO 12 FT ON THU AND CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT.

IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY FRI NIGHT WITH SCA SOUTHERLY SWELLS LINGERING.
SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON OCEAN SAT AFT/NIGHT WITH STRONG CAA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CONNECTICUT
RIVERS/STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
DUE TO DRY CONDS AND WELL BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THEREAFTER...1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RAINFALL AND
MILD TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE MID
TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF
THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM
FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED
RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/PW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JM/DW
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...NV/PW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 241445
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1045 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...PASSING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY...AND
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
TO END THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER...
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INITIALLY...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW MAY GIVE WAY TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COASTS.

CHILLY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WILL FOLLOW A
STATISTICAL MOS BLEND...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND
40...WELL BELOW NORMAL. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE LIGHTER WINDS
WILL TAKE SOME OF THE CHILL OUT OF THE AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AS RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL VARY ACROSS
THE CWA. EXPECT A RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN AND AROUND NYC
METRO...TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN
LONG ISLAND.

THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES. AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST...SOUTH
FLOW WILL PREVAIL. ALOFT...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND OUT AHEAD OF UPSTREAM TROUGH. AS
SUCH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AND SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT TOO
CONFIDENT ON EXTENT OF SHOWER COVERAGE THIS FAR SOUTH...WITH GREATER
LIFT TO THE NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE RANGE FOR LATER IN THE DAY...WEST TO EAST.

WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL BY ALMOST 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED AND THEN SHEARING INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WED NIGHT/THU. THEREAFTER...GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVE...DEEPENING A CENTRAL US THROUGH THE MID/LATE WEEK AS
WESTERN US RIDGING BUILDS. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE
EAST COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN
THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
WEEKEND BEFORE IT SLIDES THROUGH TO END THE WEEKEND. THEN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE TRACKING WELL TO
THE NW OF THE REGION WED NIGHT...THE BETTER LIFT WILL REMAIN WELL NW
OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATE WED/WED
EVENING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY/AND LLJ MOVING THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COOL AND DAMP WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG LIKELY WED NIGHT WITH
WAA ALOFT BUT SURFACE WARM FRONT LIKELY STILL WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE REGION BASED ON CLIMO AND SURFACE LOW TRACK.

THEN INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THU WITH INCREASING
SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST. TREND WITH THIS AMPLIFIED SYSTEM HAS
BEEN SLOWER PROGRESSION. WARM FRONT MAY JUMP THROUGH PARTS OF THE
REGION THURSDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND EXTENT BASED ON COLD
OCEAN WATERS. SO TEMPS COULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS
NE NJ...TO AROUND 50 DEGREES FOR SE COASTAL AREAS.

GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE TAP AND STRENGTHENING FORCING AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS. STRONG LLJ THU
AFT/EVE MAY EVEN BRING IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALOFT...SO
HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO
LIKELY WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER COLD WATERS ALONG THE COAST
AND SOME LINGERING SNOWPACK ACROSS INTERIOR.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED THU EVENING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH
AND APPROACHING STRONG UPPER JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR A
BAND OF LINGERING ANAFRONTAL RAIN TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THU
NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING LATE.

LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED...MAINLY DIURNAL...SHOWER ACTIVITY
CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE DEEP TROUGH TROUGH SLIDING
THROUGH. CAA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX
WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE
PROB OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH CUTOFF UPPER LOW AND INVERTED
TROUGH AS DEPICTED BY GFS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN SUNDAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS AND DRYING CONDS. FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
PIVOTING THROUGH THE NE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT N FLOW AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WILL FURTHER DECREASE
TODAY.

THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. IN
ADDITION...LIGHT SEA BREEZES DEVELOP EARLY/MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING OF AROUND 5-6 KT. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES CARRIES
SOME UNCERTAINTY...SO THEY COULD DIFFER FROM THE FORECAST BY A FEW
HOURS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF LIGHT SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE +/- 1
TO 2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF LIGHT SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE +/- 1
TO 2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF LIGHT SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE +/- 1
TO 2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT
RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF LIGHT SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE +/- 1
TO 2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: A LOW CHANCE OF A LIGHT SEA BREEZE 21Z-00Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF LIGHT SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE +/- 1
TO 2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS. S-
SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN
SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE. SW WINDS 10-20KT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA/-SHSN.
.SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN ANY
-SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS WINDS LIGHTEN WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE.
THIS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE WEDNESDAY AND A DEEPENING LOW MOVES
FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING. MARGINAL SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE
WED EVE ACROSS THE OCEAN AS LLJ MOVES ACROSS.

HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF SCA CONDS WILL BE THU FOR OCEAN AND POSSIBLE
ALL WATERS WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON INTENSITY OF WINDS BASED ON STRONG INVERSION
DEVELOPMENT...BUT LONG FETCH SHOULD ALLOW SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD
TO 8 TO 12 FT ON THU AND CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT.

IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY FRI NIGHT WITH SCA SOUTHERLY SWELLS LINGERING.
SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON OCEAN SAT AFT/NIGHT WITH STRONG CAA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CONNECTICUT
RIVERS/STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
DUE TO DRY CONDS AND WELL BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THEREAFTER...1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RAINFALL AND
MILD TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE MID
TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF
THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM
FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED
RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/PW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JM/DW
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...NV/PW




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