000
FXUS61 KOKX 241153
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
753 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AS THE FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
THEN LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES. SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
EASTERN COASTAL CONNECTICUT. THE FOG IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY SO WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS THIS.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HAS COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS A
250HPA JET AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER
DAYBREAK. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. WITH THE
FRONT MOVING SLOWLY...IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY
THAT EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA SEE THE WIND SHIFT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND
COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN FALL WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES OF LONG ISLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING
EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...AS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE AREA...A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION FROM SHOWERS TO MORE OF A
STRATIFORM RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POPS
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN LIKELY/CATEGORICAL.
ONCE AGAIN...FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S...WITH THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND THE
COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN. THIS WILL BE DUE TO COLD AIR FILTERING
IN ON A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT
OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS
WEEKEND. LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME
RATHER BRISK BY SAT AFTERNOON...FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH INTO
EARLY SAT EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
EITHER. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER
ERN CT/LONG ISLAND VIA SOME ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS DRY SLOT
PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY 55-60 AND DROPPING INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT.
STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY SAT NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS E OF NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY/ISOLD IN
NATURE ON SUNDAY VIA CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL COOL AND BREEZY ON SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S...AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
DRY WX AND A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF NYC.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS VEER TO THE NW BY MID TO LATE MORNING...AND INCREASE. THEN FOR
THE AFTERNOON...NW WINDS 15-20KT WITH GUSTS 25-29KT.
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH FLIGHT CATEGORIES. SOME VFR CIGS TO START...THEN
MVFR MOVING IN BY LATE MORNING.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z. WINDS MOSTLY SOUTH OF
310 MAGNETIC UNTIL AROUND 13-14Z...THEN NORTH OF IT THEREAFTER.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z. WINDS MOSTLY SOUTH OF
310 MAGNETIC UNTIL AROUND 15Z...THEN NORTH OF IT THEREAFTER.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z. WINDS MOSTLY SOUTH OF
310 MAGNETIC UNTIL AROUND 14Z...THEN NORTH OF IT THEREAFTER.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO BKN004 MIGHT NOT OCCUR THIS MORNING.
TIMING OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO BKN004 MIGHT NOT OCCUR THIS MORNING.
TIMING OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/VFR. SHOWERS. NW GUSTS 20-25KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR. SHOWERS. NW GUSTS 25-30KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. CHC AM SHOWERS. NW GUSTS 30-35KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN WATERS. FOG HAS
DEVELOPED AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 MILE. THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL 11AM. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ON THE
CENTRAL OCEAN WATERS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.
SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NON-OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND...SHOULD STRENGTHEN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE PUT UP A GALE WATCH FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN SOUND AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS...HAVE WENT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHERE GUSTS MAY FALL
JUST SHORT OF GALES. IT IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE SMALL CRAFT IS ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GALES MAY BE NEEDED.
CONDITIONS FALL BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF ON THE OCEAN AND THEN ERN SOUND/BAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE VIA BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE AN ADDITIONAL 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH OF RAINFALL WEST...AND
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH EAST...THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FOR THE
MOST PART...SMALL STREAM LEVELS HAVE STABILIZED THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY MINOR RISES EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2-3/4 OF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT - WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO DECREASE TO UNDER 1 INCH BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...THEN
ONLY MINIMAL QPF IN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ335-338-345.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340-
350.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ330-340-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BC/GOODMAN
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV
000
FXUS61 KOKX 241100
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
700 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AS THE FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
THEN LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES. SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
EASTERN COASTAL CONNECTICUT. THE FOG IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY SO WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS THIS.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HAS COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS A
250HPA JET AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER
DAYBREAK. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. WITH THE
FRONT MOVING SLOWLY...IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY
THAT EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA SEE THE WIND SHIFT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND
COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN FALL WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES OF LONG ISLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING
EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...AS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE AREA...A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION FROM SHOWERS TO MORE OF A
STRATIFORM RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POPS
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN LIKELY/CATEGORICAL.
ONCE AGAIN...FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S...WITH THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND THE
COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN. THIS WILL BE DUE TO COLD AIR FILTERING
IN ON A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT
OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS
WEEKEND. LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME
RATHER BRISK BY SAT AFTERNOON...FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH INTO
EARLY SAT EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
EITHER. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER
ERN CT/LONG ISLAND VIA SOME ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS DRY SLOT
PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY 55-60 AND DROPPING INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT.
STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY SAT NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS E OF NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY/ISOLD IN
NATURE ON SUNDAY VIA CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL COOL AND BREEZY ON SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S...AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
DRY WX AND A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF NYC.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS VARYING IN DIRECTION BEFORE AROUND 12Z. WINDS THEN VEER
TO THE NW LATER IN THE MORNING AND INCREASE. FOR THE AFTERNOON...NW
WINDS 15-20KT WITH GUSTS 25-29KT.
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH FLIGHT CATEGORIES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
MORNING PUSH. TEMPO OR EXTENDED PERIODS OF SUB-VFR ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR THE CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS WEST.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC BKN008 AT TIMES BEFORE AROUND 14Z. TIMING
OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT
BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC BKN004 AT TIMES BEFORE AROUND 14Z. TIMING
OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT
BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z. WINDS MOSTLY SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL AROUND
15Z...THEN NORTH OF IT THEREAFTER.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC BKN009 AT TIMES BEFORE AROUND 14Z. TIMING
OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT
BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC BKN008 AT TIMES BEFORE AROUND 14Z. TIMING
OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT
BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN004 COULD PREVAIL FROM 11-14Z. TIMING OF
MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN004 COULD PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z INSTEAD OF
TEMPO. IMPROVEMENT TO OTHER FLIGHT CATEGORIES CAN BE AN HOUR OR TWO
OFF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/VFR. SHOWERS. NW GUSTS 20-25KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR. SHOWERS. NW GUSTS 25-30KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. CHC AM SHOWERS. NW GUSTS 30-35KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN WATERS. FOG HAS
DEVELOPED AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 MILE. THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL 11AM. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ON THE
CENTRAL OCEAN WATERS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.
SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NON-OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND...SHOULD STRENGTHEN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE PUT UP A GALE WATCH FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN SOUND AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS...HAVE WENT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHERE GUSTS MAY FALL
JUST SHORT OF GALES. IT IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE SMALL CRAFT IS ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GALES MAY BE NEEDED.
CONDITIONS FALL BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF ON THE OCEAN AND THEN ERN SOUND/BAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE VIA BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE AN ADDITIONAL 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH OF RAINFALL WEST...AND
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH EAST...THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FOR THE
MOST PART...SMALL STREAM LEVELS HAVE STABILIZED THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY MINOR RISES EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2-3/4 OF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT - WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO DECREASE TO UNDER 1 INCH BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...THEN
ONLY MINIMAL QPF IN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ335-338-345.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340-
350.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ330-340-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BC/GOODMAN
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV
000
FXUS61 KOKX 240855
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
455 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AS THE FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
THEN LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HAS COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS A
250HPA JET AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER
DAYBREAK. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. WITH THE
FRONT MOVING SLOWLY...IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY
THAT EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA SEE THE WIND SHIFT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND
COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN FALL WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING
EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...AS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE AREA...A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION FROM SHOWERS TO MORE OF A
STRATIFORM RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POPS
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN LIKELY/CATEGORICAL.
ONCE AGAIN...FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S...WITH THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND THE
COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN. THIS WILL BE DUE TO COLD AIR FILTERING
IN ON A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT
OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS
WEEKEND. LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME
RATHER BRISK BY SAT AFTERNOON...FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH INTO
EARLY SAT EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
EITHER. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER
ERN CT/LONG ISLAND VIA SOME ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS DRY SLOT
PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY 55-60 AND DROPPING INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT.
STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY SAT NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS E OF NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY/ISOLD IN
NATURE ON SUNDAY VIA CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL COOL AND BREEZY ON SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S...AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
DRY WX AND A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF NYC.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS VARYING IN DIRECTION BEFORE AROUND 12Z. WINDS THEN VEER
TO THE NW LATER IN THE MORNING AND INCREASE. FOR THE AFTERNOON...NW
WINDS 15-20KT WITH GUSTS 25-29KT.
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH FLIGHT CATEGORIES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
MORNING PUSH. TEMPO OR EXTENDED PERIODS OF SUB-VFR ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR THE CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS WEST.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC BKN008 AT TIMES BEFORE AROUND 14Z. TIMING
OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT
BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC BKN004 AT TIMES BEFORE AROUND 14Z. TIMING
OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT
BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z. WINDS MOSTLY SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL AROUND
15Z...THEN NORTH OF IT THEREAFTER.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC BKN009 AT TIMES BEFORE AROUND 14Z. TIMING
OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT
BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC BKN008 AT TIMES BEFORE AROUND 14Z. TIMING
OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT
BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN004 COULD PREVAIL FROM 11-14Z. TIMING OF
MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN004 COULD PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z INSTEAD OF
TEMPO. IMPROVEMENT TO OTHER FLIGHT CATEGORIES CAN BE AN HOUR OR TWO
OFF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/VFR. SHOWERS. NW GUSTS 20-25KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR. SHOWERS. NW GUSTS 25-30KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. CHC AM SHOWERS. NW GUSTS 30-35KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NON-OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND...SHOULD STRENGTHEN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE PUT UP A GALE WATCH FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN SOUND AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS...HAVE WENT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHERE GUSTS MAY FALL
JUST SHORT OF GALES. IT IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE SMALL CRAFT IS ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GALES MAY BE NEEDED.
CONDITIONS FALL BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF ON THE OCEAN AND THEN ERN SOUND/BAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE VIA BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE AN ADDITIONAL 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH OF RAINFALL WEST...AND
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH EAST...THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FOR THE
MOST PART...SMALL STREAM LEVELS HAVE STABILIZED THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY MINOR RISES EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2-3/4 OF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT - WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO DECREASE TO UNDER 1 INCH BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...THEN
ONLY MINIMAL QPF IN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ335-338-345.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ330-340-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BC/GOODMAN
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV
000
FXUS61 KOKX 240819
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
419 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AS THE FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
THEN LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HAS COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS A
250HPA JET AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER
DAYBREAK. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. WITH THE
FRONT MOVING SLOWLY...IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY
THAT EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA SEE THE WIND SHIFT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND
COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN FALL WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING
EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...AS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE AREA...A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION FROM SHOWERS TO MORE OF A
STRATIFORM RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POPS
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN LIKELY/CATEGORICAL.
ONCE AGAIN...FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S...WITH THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND THE
COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN. THIS WILL BE DUE TO COLD AIR FILTERING
IN ON A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT
OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS
WEEKEND. LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME
RATHER BRISK BY SAT AFTERNOON...FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH INTO
EARLY SAT EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
EITHER. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER
ERN CT/LONG ISLAND VIA SOME ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS DRY SLOT
PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY 55-60 AND DROPPING INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT.
STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY SAT NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS E OF NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY/ISOLD IN
NATURE ON SUNDAY VIA CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL COOL AND BREEZY ON SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S...AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
DRY WX AND A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF NYC.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE CITY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT THEN PASSES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS VARYING IN DIRECTION BEFORE SUNRISE DUE TO TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH...BUT MOSTLY S-SW. WINDS THEN VEER TO THE NW TOWARDS THE END
OF THE MORNING PUSH AND INCREASE. FOR THE AFTERNOON...NW WINDS
15-20KT WITH GUSTS 25-29KT.
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH FLIGHT CATEGORIES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
MORNING PUSH. TEMPO OR EXTENDED PERIODS OF VFR ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS WEST AS A NARROW WEDGE OF VFR CONDITIONS
TRIES TO SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS. MVFR TO IFR IN SHOWERS...FOG AND
STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO IFR. N WIND 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. NW WIND
20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NON-OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND...SHOULD STRENGTHEN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE PUT UP A GALE WATCH FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN SOUND AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS...HAVE WENT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHERE GUSTS MAY FALL
JUST SHORT OF GALES. IT IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE SMALL CRAFT IS ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GALES MAY BE NEEDED.
CONDITIONS FALL BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF ON THE OCEAN AND THEN ERN SOUND/BAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE VIA BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE AN ADDITIONAL 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH OF RAINFALL WEST...AND
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH EAST...THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FOR THE
MOST PART...SMALL STREAM LEVELS HAVE STABILIZED THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY MINOR RISES EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2-3/4 OF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT - WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO DECREASE TO UNDER 1 INCH BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...THEN
ONLY MINIMAL QPF IN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ335-338-345.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ330-340-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BC/GOODMAN
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV
000
FXUS61 KOKX 240623
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
223 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE THEN FORMS ALONG IT NEAR THE AREA FRIDAY...AND SLOWLY
TRACKS TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIS LOW SLOWLY THEN
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAIN AREA OF FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS NE NJ AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS LESS ORGANIZATION
THAN THERE WAS EARLIER IN THE DAY...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUES TO EXACERBATE THE ONGOING FLOODING. NUMEROUS STREAMS
AND RIVERS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS...IN PARTICULAR...ACROSS BERGEN
COUNTY NJ. MOST OF THE RIVER GAUGES ACROSS THIS AREA SHOW MAINLY
MINOR FLOODING...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF SOME PROPERTIES
TAKING ON WATER WITH ABOUT A FOOT OF RUNNING WATER.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ACROSS EASTERN PA...THEIR ARE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THIS AREA...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT FROM NOW UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
THE FRONT THEN ARRIVES AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.
BASED ON THE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...LONGER TERM FLOODING MAY BECOME
AN ISSUE AND AREAL FLOOD WARNING MAY NEED TO REPLACE THE ONGOING
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. THIS WILL DEPEND IN HOW WELL THE CONVECTION
UPSTREAM REMAINS IN TACT.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHING WITH A WEAKENING WIND
SHEAR PROFILE AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL STABILITY.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT COMES TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING WITH
AFOREMENTIONED 250 HPA JET AXIS SLIDING TO OUR EAST ALONG WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TRI-STATE AND
TRACKING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED MOIST S FLOW INT HE MID LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS FROM 700
HPA DOWN TO THE SURFACE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...QUITE LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING TO THE
EAST...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT - ALTHOUGH WEAK - TAKING OVER.
FOR HIGHS FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH A
MIX DOWN FROM 925 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT
OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS
WEEKEND. HAVE SHIFTED FOCUS OF CATEGORICAL POP INITIALLY ON SAT TO
AREAS FROM NYC WEST WHERE HEAVIER COMMA HEAD PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING...THEN E-WARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME
RATHER BRISK BY SAT AFTERNOON...FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH INTO EARLY SAT
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OVER ERN CT/LONG ISLAND VIA SOME
ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. TEMPS
WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY 55-60 AND
DROPPING INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT.
STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY SAT NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS E OF NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY/ISOLD IN
NATURE ON SUNDAY VIA CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL COOL AND BREEZY ON SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S...AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
DRY WX AND A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF NYC.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE CITY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT THEN PASSES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS VARYING IN DIRECTION BEFORE SUNRISE DUE TO TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH...BUT MOSTLY S-SW. WINDS THEN VEER TO THE NW TOWARDS THE END
OF THE MORNING PUSH AND INCREASE. FOR THE AFTERNOON...NW WINDS
15-20KT WITH GUSTS 25-29KT.
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH FLIGHT CATEGORIES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
MORNING PUSH. TEMPO OR EXTENDED PERIODS OF VFR ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS WEST AS A NARROW WEDGE OF VFR CONDITIONS
TRIES TO SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS. MVFR TO IFR IN SHOWERS...FOG AND
STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO IFR. N WIND 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. NW WIND
20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NON-OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GUSTS IN STRENGTHENING N-NW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES E OF NEW ENGLAND COULD REACH GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ON THE OCEAN AND THEN ERN
SOUND/BAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE VIA
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS MAY REPLACE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ACROSS NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
DEPENDING ON HOW WELL THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM REMAIN IN TACT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF AROUND 1.75 INCHES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR RAINFALL RATES
TO APPROACH 2 INCHES AN HOUR IN ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. AS A
RESULT EXPECT ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2-3/4 OF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT - WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO DECREASE TO UNDER 1 INCH BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF MINOR URBAN FLOODING IN
THIS TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY BE RESTRICTED TO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...IF ANY OCCURS.
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...THEN
ONLY MINIMAL QPF IN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT/NV
000
FXUS61 KOKX 240244
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1044 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE THEN FORMS ALONG IT NEAR THE AREA FRIDAY...AND SLOWLY
TRACKS TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIS LOW SLOWLY THEN
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MAIN AREA OF FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS NE NJ AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS LESS ORGANIZATION
THAN THERE WAS EARLIER IN THE DAY...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUES TO EXACERBATE THE ONGOING FLOODING. NUMEROUS STREAMS
AND RIVERS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS...IN PARTICULAR...ACROSS BERGEN
COUNTY NJ. MOST OF THE RIVER GAUGES ACROSS THIS AREA SHOW MAINLY
MINOR FLOODING...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF SOME PROPERTIES
TAKING ON WATER WITH ABOUT A FOOT OF RUNNING WATER.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ACROSS EASTERN PA...THEIR ARE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THIS AREA...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT FROM NOW UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
THE FRONT THEN ARRIVES AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.
BASED ON THE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...LONGER TERM FLOODING MAY BECOME
AN ISSUE AND AREAL FLOOD WARNING MAY NEED TO REPLACE THE ONGOING
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. THIS WILL DEPEND IN HOW WELL THE CONVECTION
UPSTREAM REMAINS IN TACT.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHING WITH A WEAKENING WIND
SHEAR PROFILE AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL STABILITY.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT COMES TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING WITH
AFOREMENTIONED 250 HPA JET AXIS SLIDING TO OUR EAST ALONG WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TRI-STATE AND
TRACKING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED MOIST S FLOW INT HE MID LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS FROM 700
HPA DOWN TO THE SURFACE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...QUITE LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING TO THE
EAST...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT - ALTHOUGH WEAK - TAKING OVER.
FOR HIGHS FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH A
MIX DOWN FROM 925 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT
OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS
WEEKEND. HAVE SHIFTED FOCUS OF CATEGORICAL POP INITIALLY ON SAT TO
AREAS FROM NYC WEST WHERE HEAVIER COMMA HEAD PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING...THEN E-WARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME
RATHER BRISK BY SAT AFTERNOON...FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH INTO EARLY SAT
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OVER ERN CT/LONG ISLAND VIA SOME
ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. TEMPS
WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY 55-60 AND
DROPPING INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT.
STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY SAT NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS E OF NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY/ISOLD IN
NATURE ON SUNDAY VIA CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL COOL AND BREEZY ON SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S...AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
DRY WX AND A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF NYC.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND
05Z...MAINLY WEST OF NEW YORK CITY.
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH AFTER 10Z...AND THEN BECOME NORTHERLY AS THE LOW
MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST DURING FRIDAY.
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH VISIBILITIES MVFR TO
IFR IN SHOWERS AND FOG. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SLOWLY FRIDAY
MORNING BEHIND FRONT. TIMING IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS. MVFR TO IFR IN SHOWERS...FOG AND
STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO IFR. N WIND 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. NW WIND
20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NON-OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GUSTS IN STRENGTHENING N-NW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES E OF NEW ENGLAND COULD REACH GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ON THE OCEAN AND THEN ERN
SOUND/BAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE VIA
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS MAY REPLACE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ACROSS NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
DEPENDING ON HOW WELL THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM REMAIN IN TACT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF AROUND 1.75 INCHES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR RAINFALL RATES
TO APPROACH 2 INCHES AN HOUR IN ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. AS A
RESULT EXPECT ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2-3/4 OF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT - WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO DECREASE TO UNDER 1 INCH BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF MINOR URBAN FLOODING IN
THIS TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY BE RESTRICTED TO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...IF ANY OCCURS.
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...THEN
ONLY MINIMAL QPF IN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT/NV
000
FXUS61 KOKX 240218
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1018 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE THEN FORMS ALONG IT NEAR THE AREA FRIDAY...AND SLOWLY
TRACKS TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIS LOW SLOWLY THEN
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MAIN AREA OF FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS NE NJ AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS LESS ORGANIZATION
THAN THERE WAS EARLIER IN THE DAY...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUES TO EXACERBATE THE ONGOING FLOODING. NUMEROUS STREAMS
AND RIVERS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS...IN PARTICULAR...ACROSS BERGEN
COUNTY NJ. MOST OF THE RIVER GAUGES ACROSS THIS AREA SHOW MAINLY
MINOR FLOODING...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF SOME PROPERTIES
TAKING ON WATER WITH ABOUT A FOOT OF RUNNING WATER.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ACROSS EASTERN PA...THEIR ARE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THIS AREA...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT FROM NOW UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
THE FRONT THEN ARRIVES AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.
BASED ON THE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...LONGER TERM FLOODING MAY BECOME
AN ISSUE AND AREAL FLOOD WARNING MAY NEED TO REPLACE THE ONGOING
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. THIS WILL DEPEND IN HOW WELL THE CONVECTION
UPSTREAM REMAINS IN TACT.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHING WITH A WEAKENING WIND
SHEAR PROFILE AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL STABILITY.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT COMES TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING WITH
AFOREMENTIONED 250 HPA JET AXIS SLIDING TO OUR EAST ALONG WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TRI-STATE AND
TRACKING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED MOIST S FLOW INT HE MID LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS FROM 700
HPA DOWN TO THE SURFACE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...QUITE LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING TO THE
EAST...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT - ALTHOUGH WEAK - TAKING OVER.
FOR HIGHS FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH A
MIX DOWN FROM 925 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT
OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS
WEEKEND. HAVE SHIFTED FOCUS OF CATEGORICAL POP INITIALLY ON SAT TO
AREAS FROM NYC WEST WHERE HEAVIER COMMA HEAD PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING...THEN E-WARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME
RATHER BRISK BY SAT AFTERNOON...FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH INTO EARLY SAT
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OVER ERN CT/LONG ISLAND VIA SOME
ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. TEMPS
WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY 55-60 AND
DROPPING INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT.
STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY SAT NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS E OF NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY/ISOLD IN
NATURE ON SUNDAY VIA CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL COOL AND BREEZY ON SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S...AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
DRY WX AND A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF NYC.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL AROUND
03Z FOR NEW YORK CITY AND THE TERMINALS TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
SHOWERS BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH AFTER 10Z...AND THEN BECOME NORTHERLY AS THE LOW
MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST DURING FRIDAY.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...THEN IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY GUSTS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...THEN IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY GUSTS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...THEN IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY GUSTS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...THEN IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY GUSTS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...THEN IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY GUSTS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND FOG TONIGHT
WITH IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS. VISIBILITIES LOWER TO IFR LATE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS. MVFR TO IFR IN SHOWERS...FOG AND
STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO IFR. N WIND 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. NW WIND
20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 10-15G20KT ON MONDAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NON-OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GUSTS IN STRENGTHENING N-NW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES E OF NEW ENGLAND COULD REACH GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ON THE OCEAN AND THEN ERN
SOUND/BAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE VIA
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS MAY REPLACE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ACROSS NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
DEPENDING ON HOW WELL THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM REMAIN IN TACT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF AROUND 1.75 INCHES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR RAINFALL RATES
TO APPROACH 2 INCHES AN HOUR IN ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. AS A
RESULT EXPECT ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2-3/4 OF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT - WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO DECREASE TO UNDER 1 INCH BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF MINOR URBAN FLOODING IN
THIS TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY BE RESTRICTED TO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...IF ANY OCCURS.
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...THEN
ONLY MINIMAL QPF IN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KOKX 240047
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
847 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
THEN FORMS ALONG IT NEAR THE AREA FRIDAY...AND SLOWLY TRACKS TO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIS LOW SLOWLY THEN LIFTS
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO NE ORIENTED
FROM SW TO NW FROM AROUND NYC METRO NE INTO SW CT. WHILE THIS AREA
CONTINUES TO BE WORKED OVER...THERE IS STILL DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND EMBEDDED SHORT SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ALOFT. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS DO EXPECT THIS AREA
TO DISSIPATE DUE AIR MASS STABILIZING. NEXT ORGANIZED ROUND WILL
LIKELY COME TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND UPPER
JET DYNAMICS.
TO THE EAST OF THE NYC METRO...ACROSS LI AND SOUTHERN CT...THERE
ARE SIGNS OF A LOW-LEVEL JET AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF
CONVECTION. LATEST RADAR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS SW OF
EASTERN LI...EXTENDING TO EAST OF THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS AREA
DOES NOT HAVE ANY STRONG CONVECTION...BUT THAT MAY CHANGE AS THE
JET INCREASES ACROSS THIS AREA AND THEN TRANSLATES EAST BY EARLY
MORNING.
BOTTOM LINE OVERNIGHT...ANY CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE MINOR NUISANCE...POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING...BUT FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF THE CONVECTION
CONTINUOUSLY MOVES OR TRAINS OVER THE SAME AREA.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT COMES TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING WITH
AFOREMENTIONED 250 HPA JET AXIS SLIDING TO OUR EAST ALONG WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TRI-STATE AND
TRACKING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED MOIST S FLOW INT HE MID LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS FROM 700
HPA DOWN TO THE SURFACE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...QUITE LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING TO THE
EAST...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT - ALTHOUGH WEAK - TAKING OVER.
FOR HIGHS FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH A
MIX DOWN FROM 925 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT
OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS
WEEKEND. HAVE SHIFTED FOCUS OF CATEGORICAL POP INITIALLY ON SAT TO
AREAS FROM NYC WEST WHERE HEAVIER COMMA HEAD PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING...THEN E-WARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME
RATHER BRISK BY SAT AFTERNOON...FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH INTO EARLY SAT
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OVER ERN CT/LONG ISLAND VIA SOME
ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. TEMPS
WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY 55-60 AND
DROPPING INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT.
STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY SAT NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS E OF NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY/ISOLD IN
NATURE ON SUNDAY VIA CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL COOL AND BREEZY ON SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S...AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
DRY WX AND A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF NYC.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL AROUND
03Z FOR NEW YORK CITY AND THE TERMINALS TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
SHOWERS BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH AFTER 10Z...AND THEN BECOME NORTHERLY AS THE LOW
MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST DURING FRIDAY.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...THEN IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY GUSTS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...THEN IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY GUSTS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...THEN IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY GUSTS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...THEN IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY GUSTS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...THEN IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY GUSTS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND FOG TONIGHT
WITH IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS. VISIBILITIES LOWER TO IFR LATE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS. MVFR TO IFR IN SHOWERS...FOG AND
STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO IFR. N WIND 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. NW WIND
20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 10-15G20KT ON MONDAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NON-OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GUSTS IN STRENGTHENING N-NW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES E OF NEW ENGLAND COULD REACH GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ON THE OCEAN AND THEN ERN
SOUND/BAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE VIA
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN ADDITIONAL 1-1.25 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.75 INCHES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR RAINFALL RATES TO APPROACH 2 INCHES AN HOUR IN STRONGER
CONVECTION. AS A RESULT EXPECT ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BECAUSE FORECAST BASIN AVERAGE
QPF DOES NOT EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...AND ANY FLASH FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME.
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2-3/4 OF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT - WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO DECREASE TO UNDER 1 INCH BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF MINOR URBAN FLOODING IN
THIS TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY BE RESTRICTED TO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...IF ANY OCCURS.
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...THEN
ONLY MINIMAL QPF IN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT/NV
000
FXUS61 KOKX 240013
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
813 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
THEN FORMS ALONG IT NEAR THE AREA FRIDAY...AND SLOWLY TRACKS TO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIS LOW SLOWLY THEN LIFTS
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO NE ORIENTED
FROM SW TO NW FROM AROUND NYC METRO NE INTO SW CT. WHILE THIS AREA
CONTINUES TO BE WORKED OVER...THERE IS STILL DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND EMBEDDED SHORT SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ALOFT. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS DO EXPECT THIS AREA
TO DISSIPATE DUE AIR MASS STABILIZING. NEXT ORGANIZED ROUND WILL
LIKELY COME TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND UPPER
JET DYNAMICS.
TO THE EAST OF THE NYC METRO...ACROSS LI AND SOUTHERN CT...THERE
ARE SIGNS OF A LOW-LEVEL JET AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF
CONVECTION. LATEST RADAR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS SW OF
EASTERN LI...EXTENDING TO EAST OF THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS AREA
DOES NOT HAVE ANY STRONG CONVECTION...BUT THAT MAY CHANGE AS THE
JET INCREASES ACROSS THIS AREA AND THEN TRANSLATES EAST BY EARLY
MORNING.
BOTTOM LINE OVERNIGHT...ANY CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE MINOR NUISANCE...POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING...BUT FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF THE CONVECTION
CONTINUOUSLY MOVES OR TRAINS OVER THE SAME AREA.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT COMES TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING WITH
AFOREMENTIONED 250 HPA JET AXIS SLIDING TO OUR EAST ALONG WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TRI-STATE AND
TRACKING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED MOIST S FLOW INT HE MID LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS FROM 700
HPA DOWN TO THE SURFACE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...QUITE LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING TO THE
EAST...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT - ALTHOUGH WEAK - TAKING OVER.
FOR HIGHS FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH A
MIX DOWN FROM 925 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT
OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS
WEEKEND. HAVE SHIFTED FOCUS OF CATEGORICAL POP INITIALLY ON SAT TO
AREAS FROM NYC WEST WHERE HEAVIER COMMA HEAD PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING...THEN E-WARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME
RATHER BRISK BY SAT AFTERNOON...FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH INTO EARLY SAT
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OVER ERN CT/LONG ISLAND VIA SOME
ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. TEMPS
WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY 55-60 AND
DROPPING INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT.
STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY SAT NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS E OF NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY/ISOLD IN
NATURE ON SUNDAY VIA CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL COOL AND BREEZY ON SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S...AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
DRY WX AND A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF NYC.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER DAY FOR THE NYC TERMINALS.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CITY TERMINALS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH TONIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE
SPARSE TONIGHT...BUT STILL A POSSIBILITY. IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBY
ARE LIKELY AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS.
MORE STABLE AIR OVER EASTERN SECTIONS...AND THEREFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...AFTER 22Z.
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO IFR OR LESS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT
TODAY. GUSTY WINDS TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AWAY FROM THE COAST MAY GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA...ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE. MVFR TO IFR IN
SHOWERS...FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER. N WINDS 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESEDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 10-15G20KT ON MONDAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NON-OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GUSTS IN STRENGTHENING N-NW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES E OF NEW ENGLAND COULD REACH GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ON THE OCEAN AND THEN ERN
SOUND/BAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE VIA
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN ADDITIONAL 1-1.25 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.75 INCHES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR RAINFALL RATES TO APPROACH 2 INCHES AN HOUR IN STRONGER
CONVECTION. AS A RESULT EXPECT ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BECAUSE FORECAST BASIN AVERAGE
QPF DOES NOT EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...AND ANY FLASH FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME.
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2-3/4 OF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT - WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO DECREASE TO UNDER 1 INCH BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF MINOR URBAN FLOODING IN
THIS TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY BE RESTRICTED TO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...IF ANY OCCURS.
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...THEN
ONLY MINIMAL QPF IN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KOKX 232039
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
439 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
THEN FORMS ALONG IT NEAR THE AREA FRIDAY...AND SLOWLY TRACKS TO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIS LOW SLOWLY THEN LIFTS
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HRRR/RAP/NAM/SREF IDEA OF
SHRA/TSRA INITIALLY BEING CONFINED TO THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA...THEN
EXPANDING TO THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING - NOTING
AREA OF CONVECTION OFF THE DELMARVA LIFTING NNE...AND APPROACH OF
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE.
THE COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
REGION...THE AREA BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 110+ KT
250 HPA JET...AND DEVELOPING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD
FOR DETAILS.
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS OVER NW ZONES INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOUR...AND THEN SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT COMES TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING WITH
AFOREMENTIONED 250 HPA JET AXIS SLIDING TO OUR EAST ALONG WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TRI-STATE AND
TRACKING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED MOIST S FLOW INT HE MID LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS FROM 700
HPA DOWN TO THE SURFACE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...QUITE LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING TO THE
EAST...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT - ALTHOUGH WEAK - TAKING OVER.
FOR HIGHS FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH A
MIX DOWN FROM 925 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT
OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS
WEEKEND. HAVE SHIFTED FOCUS OF CATEGORICAL POP INITIALLY ON SAT TO
AREAS FROM NYC WEST WHERE HEAVIER COMMA HEAD PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING...THEN E-WARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME
RATHER BRISK BY SAT AFTERNOON...FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH INTO EARLY SAT
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OVER ERN CT/LONG ISLAND VIA SOME
ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. TEMPS
WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY 55-60 AND
DROPPING INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT.
STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY SAT NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS E OF NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY/ISOLD IN
NATURE ON SUNDAY VIA CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL COOL AND BREEZY ON SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S...AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
DRY WX AND A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF NYC.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER DAY FOR THE NYC TERMINALS.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CITY TERMINALS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH TONIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE
SPARSE TONIGHT...BUT STILL A POSSIBILITY. IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBY
ARE LIKELY AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS.
MORE STABLE AIR OVER EASTERN SECTIONS...AND THEREFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...AFTER 22Z.
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO IFR OR LESS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT
TODAY. GUSTY WINDS TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AWAY FROM THE COAST MAY GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA...ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE. MVFR TO IFR IN
SHOWERS...FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER. N WINDS 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESEDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 10-15G20KT ON MONDAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WEB-CAMS SHOW VISIBILITIES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND NY HARBOR
CONTINUE TO BE UNDER A MILE AT TIMES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE WATERS S AND W OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH 9 PM
FOR THE PATCHY DENSE FOG.
OTHERWISE...SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD PORTION
OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL. NON-OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GUSTS IN STRENGTHENING N-NW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES E OF NEW ENGLAND COULD REACH GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TON CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ON THE OCEAN AND THEN ERN
SOUND/BAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE VIA
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN ADDITIONAL 1-1.25 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.75 INCHES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR RAINFALL RATES TO APPROACH 2 INCHES AN HOUR IN STRONGER
CONVECTION. AS A RESULT EXPECT ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BECAUSE FORECAST BASIN AVERAGE
QPF DOES NOT EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...AND ANY FLASH FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME.
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2-3/4 OF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT - WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO DECREASE TO UNDER 1 INCH BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF MINOR URBAN FLOODING IN
THIS TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY BE RESTRICTED TO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...IF ANY OCCURS.
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...THEN
ONLY MINIMAL QPF IN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JP/MET
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT/NV
000
FXUS61 KOKX 232004
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
404 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
THEN FORMS ALONG IT NEAR THE AREA FRIDAY...AND SLOWLY TRACKS TO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIS LOW SLOWLY THEN LIFTS
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HRRR/RAP/NAM/SREF IDEA OF
SHRA/TSRA INITIALLY BEING CONFINED TO THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA...THEN
EXPANDING TO THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING - NOTING
AREA OF CONVECTION OFF THE DELMARVA LIFTING NNE...AND APPROACH OF
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE.
THE COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
REGION...THE AREA BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 110+ KT
250 HPA JET...AND DEVELOPING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD
FOR DETAILS.
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS OVER NW ZONES INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOUR...AND THEN SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT COMES TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING WITH
AFOREMENTIONED 250 HPA JET AXIS SLIDING TO OUR EAST ALONG WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TRI-STATE AND
TRACKING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED MOIST S FLOW INT HE MID LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS FROM 700
HPA DOWN TO THE SURFACE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...QUITE LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING TO THE
EAST...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT - ALTHOUGH WEAK - TAKING OVER.
FOR HIGHS FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH A
MIX DOWN FROM 925 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT
OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS
WEEKEND. HAVE SHIFTED FOCUS OF CATEGORICAL POP INITIALLY ON SAT TO
AREAS FROM NYC WEST WHERE HEAVIER COMMA HEAD PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING...THEN E-WARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME
RATHER BRISK BY SAT AFTERNOON...FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH INTO EARLY SAT
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OVER ERN CT/LONG ISLAND VIA SOME
ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. TEMPS
WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY 55-60 AND
DROPPING INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT.
STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY SAT NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS E OF NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY/ISOLD IN
NATURE ON SUNDAY VIA CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL COOL AND BREEZY ON SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S...AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
DRY WX AND A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF NYC.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER DAY FOR THE NYC TERMINALS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA TODAY...MOVING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY.
VFR CIGS AND VIS AT KLGA AND KJFK WILL LOWER TO MVFR...ESPECIALLY
IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS.
FOG JUST OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND MAY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO KJFK. ALSO...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL JERSEY COAST AND IS MOVING NORTHWARD.
WILL IMPACT KJFK AND KLGA AROUND 18Z.
FOR THE CITY TERMINALS...SHOWERS WILL POP UP AT ANY TIME...SOME OF
WHICH WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS...SO WENT PREVAILING SHRA AND TEMPO
-TSRA. MORE STABLE AIR OVER EASTERN SECTIONS...AND THEREFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...AFTER 22Z.
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO IFR OR LESS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
INTRODUCE THUNDER TO THE TERMINALS EAST OF NYC IN A PROB30 GROUP
AFTER 00Z AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE TERMINALS THERE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT
TODAY. GUSTY WINDS TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AWAY FROM THE COAST MAY GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. FOG AND STRATUS
OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND COULD MOVE IN...BRINGING VSBY
AND CIGS TO IFR.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA...ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE. MVFR TO IFR IN
SHOWERS...FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER. N WINDS 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
WEB-CAMS SHOW VISIBILITIES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND NY HARBOR
CONTINUE TO BE UNDER A MILE AT TIMES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE WATERS S AND W OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH 9 PM
FOR THE PATCHY DENSE FOG.
OTHERWISE...SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD PORTION
OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL. NON-OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GUSTS IN STRENGTHENING N-NW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES E OF NEW ENGLAND COULD REACH GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TON CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ON THE OCEAN AND THEN ERN
SOUND/BAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE VIA
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN ADDITIONAL 1-1.25 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.75 INCHES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR RAINFALL RATES TO APPROACH 2 INCHES AN HOUR IN STRONGER
CONVECTION. AS A RESULT EXPECT ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BECAUSE FORECAST BASIN AVERAGE
QPF DOES NOT EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...AND ANY FLASH FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME.
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2-3/4 OF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT - WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO DECREASE TO UNDER 1 INCH BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF MINOR URBAN FLOODING IN
THIS TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY BE RESTRICTED TO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...IF ANY OCCURS.
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...THEN
ONLY MINIMAL QPF IN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT
000
FXUS61 KOKX 231812
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
212 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THROUGH
TONIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN EXIT TO THE EAST BY THE END OF
THE DAY...AND REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. IT
THEN TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HRRR/RAP/NAM/SREF IDEA OF
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY BEING CONFINED TO THE NW 1/2 OF
THE CWA. HAVE MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS NW AND CHC POPS SE AS A RESULT.
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA...WITH 1000-2000
J/KG CURRENTLY OVER LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ...ALONG WITH 30 KT
OF BULK SHEAR SUPPORTING BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS OF 15-30. SO CAN
EXPECT ORGANIZED MULTI- CELLULAR CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL. MAIN THREAT IF ANY STORM BECOMES SEVERE IS GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL.
GIVEN APPROACHING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE AND STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER SE 1/2 OF CWA.
PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND POTENTIALLY TRAINING CELLS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE AT NIGHT
PROVIDING LIFT. FARTHER EAST...LIFT COMES COURTESY OF ADDITIONAL MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. ON A LARGER
SCALE...LIFT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK ALOFT
SHIFTS IN LATE AT NIGHT. SO SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS THE CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD LINGER AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BE TO OUR EAST
BY THE END OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS RIGHT
ALONG THE SYSTEM...AS WELL AS A CONTINUED THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION WITH
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY...TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON
FRI NE TO OVER NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME IS TO
CONTINUE TO TREND FORECAST TOWARDS THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BEING EXHIBITED
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THIS RESULTS IN A BREEZY...COOL AND WET
WEEKEND. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MODERATE FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BANDING ON
SATURDAY...WITH GRADUALLY TAPERING TO SHOWER ACTIVITY SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT INSTABILITY
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO MON. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND COULD BE A GOOD 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONABLE...WITH TEMPS LIKELY STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S WITH
COLD POOL ALOFT...CLOUDS AND RAIN. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY NOT
BE ANY BETTER BASED ON TRENDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONABLE. A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER DAY FOR THE NYC TERMINALS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA TODAY...MOVING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY.
VFR CIGS AND VIS AT KLGA AND KJFK WILL LOWER TO MVFR...ESPECIALLY
IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS.
FOG JUST OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND MAY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO KJFK. ALSO...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL JERSEY COAST AND IS MOVING NORTHWARD.
WILL IMPACT KJFK AND KLGA AROUND 18Z.
FOR THE CITY TERMINALS...SHOWERS WILL POP UP AT ANY TIME...SOME OF
WHICH WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS...SO WENT PREVAILING SHRA AND TEMPO
-TSRA. MORE STABLE AIR OVER EASTERN SECTIONS...AND THEREFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...AFTER 22Z.
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO IFR OR LESS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
INTRODUCE THUNDER TO THE TERMINALS EAST OF NYC IN A PROB30 GROUP
AFTER 00Z AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE TERMINALS THERE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT
TODAY. GUSTY WINDS TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AWAY FROM THE COAST MAY GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. FOG AND STRATUS
OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND COULD MOVE IN...BRINGING VSBY
AND CIGS TO IFR.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA...ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE. MVFR TO IFR IN
SHOWERS...FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER. N WINDS 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
WEB-CAMS SHOW VISIBILITIES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND NY HARBOR
GOING DOWN TO UNDER A MILE AT TIMES...SO HAVE ISSUED A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE WATERS S AND W OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH 4
PM FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG.
OTHERWISE...SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LINGERING
SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE
OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL DURING
PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL. NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE CONDITIONS SAT INTO SUN...AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE
WATERS ON FRI AND LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WINDS AND
SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SUN INTO MON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND INCH BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT AT
LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING IS PROBABLE. FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME REGARDING TIMING/COVERAGE/PLACEMENT
OF FLASH FLOODING IS TOO LOW TO GO WITH A WATCH FOR FLASH
FLOODING.
THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF FRI WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION. AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS MAY EXACERBATE ANY
ONGOING FLOODING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
000
FXUS61 KOKX 231652
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1252 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THROUGH
TONIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN EXIT TO THE EAST BY THE END OF
THE DAY...AND REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. IT
THEN TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HRRR/RAP/NAM/SREF IDEA OF
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY BEING CONFINED TO THE NW 1/2 OF
THE CWA. HAVE MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS NW AND CHC POPS SE AS A RESULT.
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA...WITH 1000-2000
J/KG CURRENTLY OVER LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ...ALONG WITH 30 KT
OF BULK SHEAR SUPPORTING BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS OF 15-30. SO CAN
EXPECT ORGANIZED MULTI- CELLULAR CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL. MAIN THREAT IF ANY STORM BECOMES SEVERE IS GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL.
GIVEN APPROACHING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE AND STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER SE 1/2 OF CWA.
PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND POTENTIALLY TRAINING CELLS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE AT NIGHT
PROVIDING LIFT. FARTHER EAST...LIFT COMES COURTESY OF ADDITIONAL MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. ON A LARGER
SCALE...LIFT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK ALOFT
SHIFTS IN LATE AT NIGHT. SO SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS THE CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD LINGER AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BE TO OUR EAST
BY THE END OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS RIGHT
ALONG THE SYSTEM...AS WELL AS A CONTINUED THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION WITH
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY...TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON
FRI NE TO OVER NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME IS TO
CONTINUE TO TREND FORECAST TOWARDS THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BEING EXHIBITED
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THIS RESULTS IN A BREEZY...COOL AND WET
WEEKEND. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MODERATE FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BANDING ON
SATURDAY...WITH GRADUALLY TAPERING TO SHOWER ACTIVITY SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT INSTABILITY
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO MON. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND COULD BE A GOOD 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONABLE...WITH TEMPS LIKELY STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S WITH
COLD POOL ALOFT...CLOUDS AND RAIN. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY NOT
BE ANY BETTER BASED ON TRENDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONABLE. A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER DAY FOR THE NYC TERMINALS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR OVER KJFK AND KLGA...BUT DO EXPECT THEM TO
DROP TO MVFR OVER BY ABOUT 16Z AS KEWR HAS ALREADY FALLEN BACK TO
MVFR.
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER NORTHEAST NJ. IF THEY HOLD
TOGETHER...SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE CITY TERMINALS BY 15Z-16Z.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE AFTER 19Z. FOR THE NYC
TERMINALS AS WELL AS KSWF AND KHPN...WILL CARRY THUNDER IN A
PREVAILING GROUP STARTING AT 19Z WHICH WILL GO UNTIL 01Z. WHILE I
DO NOT THINK THUNDER WILL OCCUR AT THE TERMINAL THE ENTIRE
TIME...I DO THINK CONVECTION COULD OCCUR AT LEAST HALF OF THE
TIME...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT TERMINAL IMPACTS.
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO IFR OR LESS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
INTRODUCE THUNDER TO THE TERMINALS EAST OF NYC IN A PROB30 GROUP
AFTER 00Z AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE TERMINALS THERE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT
TODAY. WINDS AWAY FROM THE COAST MAY GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA...ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE. MVFR TO IFR IN
SHOWERS...FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER. N WINDS 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
WEB-CAMS SHOW VISIBILITIES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND NY HARBOR
GOING DOWN TO UNDER A MILE AT TIMES...SO HAVE ISSUED A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE WATERS S AND W OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH 4
PM FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG.
OTHERWISE...SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LINGERING
SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE
OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL DURING
PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL. NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE CONDITIONS SAT INTO SUN...AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE
WATERS ON FRI AND LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WINDS AND
SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SUN INTO MON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND INCH BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT AT
LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING IS PROBABLE. FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME REGARDING TIMING/COVERAGE/PLACEMENT
OF FLASH FLOODING IS TOO LOW TO GO WITH A WATCH FOR FLASH
FLOODING.
THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF FRI WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION. AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS MAY EXACERBATE ANY
ONGOING FLOODING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...BC/JP
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
000
FXUS61 KOKX 231447
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1047 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THROUGH
TONIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN EXIT TO THE EAST BY THE END OF
THE DAY...AND REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. IT
THEN TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR
THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR...NAM...RAP AND SREF AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE BULK OF ANY SHRA/TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL OCCUR OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA. THIS IS ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH REGIONAL RADAR LOOKING TO OUR SW. AS A RESULT HAVE
INCREASED POPS OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA TO CATEGORICAL THIS
AFTERNOON BUT LEFT SE PORTION AT CHANCE...USING AREAL COVERAGE
WORDING.
MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE - WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
GENERALLY ON TRACK.
EXPANDED TIMING OF PATCHY FOG OVER EASTERN ZONES INTO THE
AFTERNOON CONSISTENT WITH RECENT TRENDS AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...WITH MODELS SHOWING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AT LEAST IN THE MID
LEVELS...IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL OUTWEIGH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA. PERHAPS IT COULD BE JUST PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES ACROSS PARTS
OF CT AND LONG ISLAND. IN SPITE OF THIS...SBCAPE VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE RANGE OF 1000-1500 J/KG FOR INLAND
SPOTS. LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND SCT-LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS FOR ROUGHLY THE NW 1/2 OF THE
AREA.
WITH THE GIVEN CAPE AND BULK SHEAR NEAR 30-35 KT...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
POTENTIALLY TRAINING CELLS WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE AT NIGHT
PROVIDING LIFT. FARTHER EAST...LIFT COMES COURTESY OF ADDITIONAL MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. ON A LARGER
SCALE...LIFT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK ALOFT
SHIFTS IN LATE AT NIGHT. SO SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS THE CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD LINGER AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BE TO OUR EAST
BY THE END OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS RIGHT
ALONG THE SYSTEM...AS WELL AS A CONTINUED THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION WITH
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY...TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON
FRI NE TO OVER NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME IS TO
CONTINUE TO TREND FORECAST TOWARDS THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BEING EXHIBITED
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THIS RESULTS IN A BREEZY...COOL AND WET
WEEKEND. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MODERATE FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BANDING ON
SATURDAY...WITH GRADUALLY TAPERING TO SHOWER ACTIVITY SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT INSTABILITY
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO MON. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND COULD BE A GOOD 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONABLE...WITH TEMPS LIKELY STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S WITH
COLD POOL ALOFT...CLOUDS AND RAIN. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY NOT
BE ANY BETTER BASED ON TRENDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONABLE. A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER DAY FOR THE NYC TERMINALS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR OVER KJFK AND KLGA...BUT DO EXPECT THEM TO
DROP TO MVFR OVER BY ABOUT 16Z AS KEWR HAS ALREADY FALLEN BACK TO
MVFR.
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER NORTHEAST NJ. IF THEY HOLD
TOGETHER...SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE CITY TERMINALS BY 15Z-16Z.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE AFTER 19Z. FOR THE NYC
TERMINALS AS WELL AS KSWF AND KHPN...WILL CARRY THUNDER IN A
PREVAILING GROUP STARTING AT 19Z WHICH WILL GO UNTIL 01Z. WHILE I
DO NOT THINK THUNDER WILL OCCUR AT THE TERMINAL THE ENTIRE
TIME...I DO THINK CONVECTION COULD OCCUR AT LEAST HALF OF THE
TIME...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT TERMINAL IMPACTS.
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO IFR OR LESS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
INTRODUCE THUNDER TO THE TERMINALS EAST OF NYC IN A PROB30 GROUP
AFTER 00Z AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE TERMINALS THERE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT
TODAY. WINDS AWAY FROM THE COAST MAY GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA...ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE. MVFR TO IFR IN
SHOWERS...FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER. N WINDS 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
WEB-CAMS SHOW VISIBILITIES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND NY HARBOR
GOING DOWN TO UNDER A MILE AT TIMES...SO HAVE ISSUED A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE WATERS S AND W OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH 4
PM FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG.
OTHERWISE...SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LINGERING
SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE
OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL DURING
PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL. NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE CONDITIONS SAT INTO SUN...AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE
WATERS ON FRI AND LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WINDS AND
SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SUN INTO MON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND INCH BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT AT
LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING IS PROBABLE. FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME REGARDING TIMING/COVERAGE/PLACEMENT
OF FLASH FLOODING IS TOO LOW TO GO WITH A WATCH FOR FLASH
FLOODING.
THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF FRI WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION. AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS MAY EXACERBATE ANY
ONGOING FLOODING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...BC/JP
MARINE...MALOIT/JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
000
FXUS61 KOKX 231203
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
803 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN EXIT TO THE EAST BY THE END
OF THE DAY...AND REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. IT THEN TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
EXPECTED TRACK OF AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST LI AND ANOTHER
OVER SE PA THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WITH MODELS SHOWING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AT LEAST IN THE MID
LEVELS...IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL OUTWEIGH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA. PERHAPS IT COULD BE JUST PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES ACROSS PARTS
OF CT AND LONG ISLAND. IN SPITE OF THIS...SBCAPE VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE RANGE OF 1000-1500 J/KG FOR INLAND
SPOTS. LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL GIVE EASTERN AREAS AN
ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS SAID...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE STILL POSSIBLE AT ANY GIVEN POINT AT ANY GIVEN TIME.
WITH THE GIVEN CAPE AND BULK SHEAR NEAR 30-35 KT...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
POTENTIALLY TRAINING CELLS WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME REGARDING
TIMING/COVERAGE/PLACEMENT OF FLASH FLOODING IS TOO LOW TO GO WITH A
WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE AT NIGHT
PROVIDING LIFT. FARTHER EAST...LIFT COMES COURTESY OF ADDITIONAL MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. ON A LARGER
SCALE...LIFT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK ALOFT
SHIFTS IN LATE AT NIGHT. SO SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS THE CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD LINGER AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BE TO OUR EAST
BY THE END OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS RIGHT
ALONG THE SYSTEM...AS WELL AS A CONTINUED THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION WITH
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY...TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON
FRI NE TO OVER NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME IS TO
CONTINUE TO TREND FORECAST TOWARDS THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BEING EXHIBITED
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THIS RESULTS IN A BREEZY...COOL AND WET
WEEKEND. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MODERATE FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BANDING ON
SATURDAY...WITH GRADUALLY TAPERING TO SHOWER ACTIVITY SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT INSTABILITY
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO MON. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND COULD BE A GOOD 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONABLE...WITH TEMPS LIKELY STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S WITH
COLD POOL ALOFT...CLOUDS AND RAIN. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY NOT
BE ANY BETTER BASED ON TRENDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONABLE. A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER DAY FOR THE NYC TERMINALS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS RANGE ANYWHERE
FROM VFR TO LIFR. CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MVFR OR IFR AROUND 15Z.
NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE AFTER 19Z. FOR THE NYC TERMINALS AS WELL
AS KSWF AND KHPN...WILL CARRY THUNDER IN A PREVAILING GROUP STARTING
AT 19Z WHICH WILL GO UNTIL 01Z. WHILE I DO NOT THINK THUNDER WILL
OCCUR AT THE TERMINAL THE ENTIRE TIME...I DO THINK CONVECTION
COULD OCCUR AT LEAST HALF OF THE TIME...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT
TERMINAL IMPACTS.
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO IFR OR LESS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
INTRODUCE THUNDER TO THE TERMINALS EAST OF NYC IN A PROB30 GROUP
AFTER 00Z AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE TERMINALS THERE.
WIND WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT
TODAY. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. WINDS AWAY FROM THE COAST MAY GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA...ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE. MVFR TO IFR IN
SHOWERS...FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER. N WINDS 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF A MILE OR BELOW IS POSSIBLE UNTIL
MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE...SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD PORTION
OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE CONDITIONS SAT INTO SUN...AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE
WATERS ON FRI AND LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WINDS AND
SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SUN INTO MON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND INCH BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT AT
LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING IS PROBABLE. FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS THE DAY
WEARS ON.
THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF FRI WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION. AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS MAY EXACERBATE ANY
ONGOING FLOODING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
000
FXUS61 KOKX 231112
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
712 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN EXIT TO THE EAST BY THE END
OF THE DAY...AND REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. IT THEN TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
EXPECTED TRACK OF AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST LI AND ANOTHER
OVER SE PA THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WITH MODELS SHOWING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AT LEAST IN THE MID
LEVELS...IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL OUTWEIGH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA. PERHAPS IT COULD BE JUST PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES ACROSS PARTS
OF CT AND LONG ISLAND. IN SPITE OF THIS...SBCAPE VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE RANGE OF 1000-1500 J/KG FOR INLAND
SPOTS. LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL GIVE EASTERN AREAS AN
ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS SAID...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE STILL POSSIBLE AT ANY GIVEN POINT AT ANY GIVEN TIME.
WITH THE GIVEN CAPE AND BULK SHEAR NEAR 30-35 KT...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
POTENTIALLY TRAINING CELLS WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME REGARDING
TIMING/COVERAGE/PLACEMENT OF FLASH FLOODING IS TOO LOW TO GO WITH A
WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE AT NIGHT
PROVIDING LIFT. FARTHER EAST...LIFT COMES COURTESY OF ADDITIONAL MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. ON A LARGER
SCALE...LIFT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK ALOFT
SHIFTS IN LATE AT NIGHT. SO SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS THE CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD LINGER AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BE TO OUR EAST
BY THE END OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS RIGHT
ALONG THE SYSTEM...AS WELL AS A CONTINUED THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION WITH
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY...TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON
FRI NE TO OVER NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME IS TO
CONTINUE TO TREND FORECAST TOWARDS THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BEING EXHIBITED
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THIS RESULTS IN A BREEZY...COOL AND WET
WEEKEND. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MODERATE FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BANDING ON
SATURDAY...WITH GRADUALLY TAPERING TO SHOWER ACTIVITY SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT INSTABILITY
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO MON. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND COULD BE A GOOD 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONABLE...WITH TEMPS LIKELY STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S WITH
COLD POOL ALOFT...CLOUDS AND RAIN. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY NOT
BE ANY BETTER BASED ON TRENDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONABLE. A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS PUSHED EAST OF NYC...SO EASTERN TERMINALS CAN
EXPECT SOME HIT OR MISS SHOWERS. CAN NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER EARLY THIS MORNING.
EASTERN TERMINALS HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN FOG. IFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG ARE MORE LIKELY AT THE
TERMINALS EAST OF NEW YORK CITY...CEILINGS MAY BECOME LIFR AFTER 09Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AFTER 17Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
WIND WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS AND VSBY IMPROVE AROUND 13Z-14Z
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY OCCUR IN AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA...ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE.
MVFR TO IFR IN SHOWERS...FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER. N WINDS 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF A MILE OR BELOW IS POSSIBLE UNTIL
MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE...SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD PORTION
OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE CONDITIONS SAT INTO SUN...AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE
WATERS ON FRI AND LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WINDS AND
SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SUN INTO MON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND INCH BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT AT
LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING IS PROBABLE. FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS THE DAY
WEARS ON.
THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF FRI WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION. AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS MAY EXACERBATE ANY
ONGOING FLOODING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
000
FXUS61 KOKX 230840
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
440 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN EXIT TO THE EAST BY THE END
OF THE DAY...AND REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. IT THEN TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH MODELS SHOWING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AT LEAST IN THE MID
LEVELS...IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL OUTWEIGH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA. PERHAPS IT COULD BE JUST PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES ACROSS PARTS
OF CT AND LONG ISLAND. IN SPITE OF THIS...SBCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE RANGE OF 1000-1500 J/KG FOR INLAND SPOTS. LIFT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL GIVE EASTERN AREAS AN
ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS SAID...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
STILL POSSIBLE AT ANY GIVEN POINT AT ANY GIVEN TIME.
WITH THE GIVEN CAPE AND BULK SHEAR NEAR 30-35 KT...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
POTENTIALLY TRAINING CELLS WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME REGARDING
TIMING/COVERAGE/PLACEMENT OF FLASH FLOODING IS TOO LOW TO GO WITH A
WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE AT NIGHT
PROVIDING LIFT. FARTHER EAST...LIFT COMES COURTESY OF ADDITIONAL MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. ON A LARGER
SCALE...LIFT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK ALOFT
SHIFTS IN LATE AT NIGHT. SO SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS THE CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD LINGER AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BE TO OUR EAST
BY THE END OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS RIGHT
ALONG THE SYSTEM...AS WELL AS A CONTINUED THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION WITH
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY...TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON
FRI NE TO OVER NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME IS TO
CONTINUE TO TREND FORECAST TOWARDS THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BEING EXHIBITED
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THIS RESULTS IN A BREEZY...COOL AND WET
WEEKEND. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MODERATE FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BANDING ON
SATURDAY...WITH GRADUALLY TAPERING TO SHOWER ACTIVITY SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT INSTABILITY
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO MON. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND COULD BE A GOOD 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONABLE...WITH TEMPS LIKELY STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S WITH
COLD POOL ALOFT...CLOUDS AND RAIN. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY NOT
BE ANY BETTER BASED ON TRENDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONABLE. A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS PUSHED EAST OF NYC...SO EASTERN TERMINALS CAN
EXPECT SOME HIT OR MISS SHOWERS. CAN NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER EARLY THIS MORNING.
EASTERN TERMINALS HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN FOG. IFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG ARE MORE LIKELY AT THE
TERMINALS EAST OF NEW YORK CITY...CEILINGS MAY BECOME LIFR AFTER 09Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AFTER 17Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
WIND WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS AND VSBY IMPROVE AROUND 13Z-14Z
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY OCCUR IN AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA...ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE.
MVFR TO IFR IN SHOWERS...FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER. N WINDS 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
DROPPED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER THE WATERS BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS...HOWEVER PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF A MILE OR
BELOW IS POSSIBLE UNTIL MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE...SCA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP
OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE CONDITIONS SAT INTO SUN...AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE
WATERS ON FRI AND LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WINDS AND SEAS
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SUN INTO MON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND INCH BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT AT
LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING IS PROBABLE. FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS THE DAY
WEARS ON.
THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF FRI WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION. AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRI INTO SUN. THIS MAY EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING
FLOODING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
000
FXUS61 KOKX 230829
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
429 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN EXIT TO THE EAST BY THE END
OF THE DAY...AND REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. IT THEN TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH MODELS SHOWING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AT LEAST IN THE MID
LEVELS...IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL OUTWEIGH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA. PERHAPS IT COULD BE JUST PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES ACROSS PARTS
OF CT AND LONG ISLAND. IN SPITE OF THIS...SBCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE RANGE OF 1000-1500 J/KG FOR INLAND SPOTS. LIFT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL GIVE EASTERN AREAS AN
ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS SAID...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
STILL POSSIBLE AT ANY GIVEN POINT AT ANY GIVEN TIME.
WITH THE GIVEN CAPE AND BULK SHEAR NEAR 30-35 KT...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
POTENTIALLY TRAINING CELLS WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME REGARDING
TIMING/COVERAGE/PLACEMENT OF FLASH FLOODING IS TOO LOW TO GO WITH A
WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE AT NIGHT
PROVIDING LIFT. FARTHER EAST...LIFT COMES COURTESY OF ADDITIONAL MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. ON A LARGER
SCALE...LIFT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK ALOFT
SHIFTS IN LATE AT NIGHT. SO SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS THE CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD LINGER AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BE TO OUR EAST
BY THE END OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS RIGHT
ALONG THE SYSTEM...AS WELL AS A CONTINUED THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION WITH
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY...TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON
FRI NE TO OVER NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME IS TO
CONTINUE TO TREND FORECAST TOWARDS THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BEING EXHIBITED
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THIS RESULTS IN A BREEZY...COOL AND WET
WEEKEND. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MODERATE FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BANDING ON
SATURDAY...WITH GRADUALLY TAPERING TO SHOWER ACTIVITY SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT INSTABILITY
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO MON. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND COULD BE A GOOD 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONABLE...WITH TEMPS LIKELY STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S WITH
COLD POOL ALOFT...CLOUDS AND RAIN. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY NOT
BE ANY BETTER BASED ON TRENDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONABLE. A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE NYC
VICINITY AROUND 08Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN FOG
ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING
ESPECIALLY AT THE NYC TERMINALS IN DIMINISHING. IFR CEILINGS AND
MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG ARE MORE LIKELY AT THE TERMINALS EAST OF
NEW YORK CITY...CEILINGS MAY BECOME LIFR AFTER 09Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AFTER 17Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
WIND WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA...ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE.
MVFR TO IFR IN SHOWERS...FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER. N WINDS 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
DROPPED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER THE WATERS BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS...HOWEVER PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF A MILE OR
BELOW IS POSSIBLE UNTIL MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE...SCA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP
OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE CONDITIONS SAT INTO SUN...AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE
WATERS ON FRI AND LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WINDS AND SEAS
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SUN INTO MON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND INCH BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT AT
LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING IS PROBABLE. FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS THE DAY
WEARS ON.
THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF FRI WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION. AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRI INTO SUN. THIS MAY EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING
FLOODING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
000
FXUS61 KOKX 230541
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
141 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY...THEN MOVE
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
FRIDAY...REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY...AND THEN
TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAD BEEN KICKING UP SHOWERS OVER ORANGE
COUNTY EARLIER HAS ENTERED A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. PERHAPS IT COULD
STILL TRIGGER A SHOWER OR TWO EAST OF THE HUDSON. ANOTHER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER SE PA...STRETCHING INTO MD IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE COULD SPILL INTO THE CITY
AND NE NJ LATE AT NIGHT. MODELS ARE FORECASTING A LOW-MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SHIFTING IN FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THIS COULD
PERHAPS ENHANCE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG. STILL A CHANCE THAT
FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST LATE AT NIGHT...BUT
IT WOULD SEEM THAT THIS WOULD HAVE TO BE ADVECTION FOG DUE TO THE
WINDS. NOT ANTICIPATING DENSE FOG ADVISORIES OVER LAND AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
MORNING SHOULD ERODE THE MARINE INVERSION - BUT STILL WILL BE
LEFT WITH QUITE A BIT OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WITH MOIST SW FLOW
ALOFT.
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SERVE AS TRIGGER FOR SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA
WITH EMBEDDED TSRA. LIKELY POPS MAINLY FROM NYC-INTERIOR SW CT
ZONES ON W AND CHANCE POPS EAST OF THAT LINE. SOME SUGGESTION FROM
NAM/GFS THAT EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW
TOO MUCH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TO
FORECAST THAT AT THIS TIME.
WITH 30-35 KT BULK SHEAR...1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBERS 15-30 HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
MAYBE NYC AND SW CT ZONES. MAIN THREAT IS GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR LOW LEVEL HELICITY WITH S SFC FLOW
AND SW FLOW AT 850 HPA.
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 HPA NEAR
THE COAST AND 950 HPA INLAND...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A
BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE. FORECASTING VALUES AROUND NORMAL
EAST TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEST.
DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT...BECOMES DIFFLUENT AT 500 HPA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS A RESULT. REFER TO THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR DETAILS. SEVERE THREAT COULD LINGER INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AS WELL.
FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH
VALUES FORECAST AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THERE
IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ON TAKING A CLOSED
UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRI NE TO OVER NEW ENGLAND
ON SUN. THE NAM AND GGEM ARE TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE BEYOND 00Z SAT. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME IS TO GO
WITH THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND THE RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY BEING EXHIBITED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THIS RESULTS IN A WET...COOL WEEKEND WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE FRI-SAT
TIME FRAME. SINCE THIS IS A BIG ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...HAVE RAMPED UP RAIN CHANCES FRI INTO SAT...BUT THESE MAY
BE UNDERDONE...ESPECIALLY FOR SAT WHERE THERE IS A TREND IN THE
FORECAST TO DRY THINGS OUT SAT INTO SUN. LATEST ECMWF KEEPS
CONDITIONS WET INTO SUN WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE. SO
THIS IS THE POINT IN THE FORECAST WHERE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.
ONCE AGAIN...WHILE THE FORECAST HAS AGGRESSIVELY TAKEN A DOWNWARD
NOTE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES MAY BE ON THE INCREASE
SAT INTO SUN BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE RAINFALL ON FRI...OR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY MAY BE CONVECTIVE WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...THE AIRMASS STABILIZES IN
THE LOW-LEVELS WITH POST-FRONTAL RAIN/SHOWERS...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. WIND GUSTS SAT
INTO SUN MAY BE UP TO 35 MPH...BUT THIS IS THE POTENTIAL...WITH THE
FORECASTS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AT THIS TIME.
AS FOR TEMPS...DAYTIME HIGHS WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE. A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS IS THEN FORECAST MON-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE NYC
VICINITY AROUND 08Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN FOG
ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING
ESPECIALLY AT THE NYC TERMINALS IN DIMINISHING. IFR CEILINGS AND
MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG ARE MORE LIKELY AT THE TERMINALS EAST OF
NEW YORK CITY...CEILINGS MAY BECOME LIFR AFTER 09Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AFTER 17Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
WIND WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA...ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE.
MVFR TO IFR IN SHOWERS...FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER. N WINDS 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH 6AM DUE TO
FOG RESTRICTING VSBY TO LESS THAN 1 NM. THIS ADV MAY HAVE TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME...THIS
COULD ALSO BE CANCELLED BEFORE 6AM AS THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND
MIGHT OUTWEIGH THE INFLUENCE OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTING OVER
RELATIVELY COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
SEAS COMING UP TO SCA LEVELS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WINDS ALSO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN UP INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
INCREASES POTENTIAL FOR SCA LEVEL GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS - SO HAVE KEPT HEADLINE AS SCA VICE CONVERTING TO AN SCA
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.
MARINE INVERSION APPEARS WILL LIMIT MIXING - SO WHILE COULD SEE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT - DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE
SCA AT THIS TIME FOR THE NON-OCEAN ZONES.
THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE WATERS ON FRI AND
LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SCA CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS SAT
INTO SUN. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SUN INTO MON WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 3/4 TO 1 INCH BASIN AVERAGE QPF
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT THURSDAY FROM ANY
SHRA/TSRA BUT COULD SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING UNDER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION - ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT - WITH LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF 1-1.5 INCHES/HR POSSIBLE
NOTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.5-1/75 INCHES IN THIS TIME
FRAME. IF THESE RATES ARE REALIZED...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS
PRODUCING THEM PASS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THURSDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF FRI WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THEREAFTER...A STRATIFORM RAIN
AND/OR SHOWERS DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT.
THIS MAY EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING. RAIN MAY LINGER EVEN INTO
SUN BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT/MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW
000
FXUS61 KOKX 230508
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
108 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY...THEN MOVE
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
FRIDAY...REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY...AND THEN
TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAD BEEN KICKING UP SHOWERS OVER ORANGE
COUNTY EARLIER HAS ENTERED A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. PERHAPS IT COULD
STILL TRIGGER A SHOWER OR TWO EAST OF THE HUDSON. ANOTHER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER SE PA...STRETCHING INTO MD IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE COULD SPILL INTO THE CITY
AND NE NJ LATE AT NIGHT. MODELS ARE FORECASTING A LOW-MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SHIFTING IN FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THIS COULD
PERHAPS ENHANCE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG. STILL A CHANCE THAT
FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST LATE AT NIGHT...BUT
IT WOULD SEEM THAT THIS WOULD HAVE TO BE ADVECTION FOG DUE TO THE
WINDS. NOT ANTICIPATING DENSE FOG ADVISORIES OVER LAND AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
MORNING SHOULD ERODE THE MARINE INVERSION - BUT STILL WILL BE
LEFT WITH QUITE A BIT OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WITH MOIST SW FLOW
ALOFT.
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SERVE AS TRIGGER FOR SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA
WITH EMBEDDED TSRA. LIKELY POPS MAINLY FROM NYC-INTERIOR SW CT
ZONES ON W AND CHANCE POPS EAST OF THAT LINE. SOME SUGGESTION FROM
NAM/GFS THAT EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW
TOO MUCH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TO
FORECAST THAT AT THIS TIME.
WITH 30-35 KT BULK SHEAR...1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBERS 15-30 HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
MAYBE NYC AND SW CT ZONES. MAIN THREAT IS GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR LOW LEVEL HELICITY WITH S SFC FLOW
AND SW FLOW AT 850 HPA.
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 HPA NEAR
THE COAST AND 950 HPA INLAND...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A
BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE. FORECASTING VALUES AROUND NORMAL
EAST TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEST.
DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT...BECOMES DIFFLUENT AT 500 HPA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS A RESULT. REFER TO THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR DETAILS. SEVERE THREAT COULD LINGER INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AS WELL.
FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH
VALUES FORECAST AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THERE
IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ON TAKING A CLOSED
UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRI NE TO OVER NEW ENGLAND
ON SUN. THE NAM AND GGEM ARE TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE BEYOND 00Z SAT. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME IS TO GO
WITH THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND THE RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY BEING EXHIBITED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THIS RESULTS IN A WET...COOL WEEKEND WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE FRI-SAT
TIME FRAME. SINCE THIS IS A BIG ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...HAVE RAMPED UP RAIN CHANCES FRI INTO SAT...BUT THESE MAY
BE UNDERDONE...ESPECIALLY FOR SAT WHERE THERE IS A TREND IN THE
FORECAST TO DRY THINGS OUT SAT INTO SUN. LATEST ECMWF KEEPS
CONDITIONS WET INTO SUN WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE. SO
THIS IS THE POINT IN THE FORECAST WHERE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.
ONCE AGAIN...WHILE THE FORECAST HAS AGGRESSIVELY TAKEN A DOWNWARD
NOTE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES MAY BE ON THE INCREASE
SAT INTO SUN BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE RAINFALL ON FRI...OR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY MAY BE CONVECTIVE WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...THE AIRMASS STABILIZES IN
THE LOW-LEVELS WITH POST-FRONTAL RAIN/SHOWERS...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. WIND GUSTS SAT
INTO SUN MAY BE UP TO 35 MPH...BUT THIS IS THE POTENTIAL...WITH THE
FORECASTS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AT THIS TIME.
AS FOR TEMPS...DAYTIME HIGHS WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE. A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS IS THEN FORECAST MON-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE NYC VICINITY
AROUND 08Z.
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN FOG POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT THE NYC TERMINALS IN
DIMINISHING. IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG POSSIBLE AT
THE TERMINALS EAST OF NEW YORK CITY...CEILINGS MAY BECOME LIFR AFTER
09Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER
17Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO.
WIND WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA...ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE.
MVFR TO IFR IN SHOWERS...FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER. N WINDS 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH 6AM DUE TO
FOG RESTRICTING VSBY TO LESS THAN 1 NM. THIS ADV MAY HAVE TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME...THIS
COULD ALSO BE CANCELLED BEFORE 6AM AS THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND
MIGHT OUTWEIGH THE INFLUENCE OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTING OVER
RELATIVELY COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
SEAS COMING UP TO SCA LEVELS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WINDS ALSO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN UP INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
INCREASES POTENTIAL FOR SCA LEVEL GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS - SO HAVE KEPT HEADLINE AS SCA VICE CONVERTING TO AN SCA
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.
MARINE INVERSION APPEARS WILL LIMIT MIXING - SO WHILE COULD SEE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT - DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE
SCA AT THIS TIME FOR THE NON-OCEAN ZONES.
THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE WATERS ON FRI AND
LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SCA CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS SAT
INTO SUN. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SUN INTO MON WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 3/4 TO 1 INCH BASIN AVERAGE QPF
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT THURSDAY FROM ANY
SHRA/TSRA BUT COULD SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING UNDER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION - ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT - WITH LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF 1-1.5 INCHES/HR POSSIBLE
NOTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.5-1/75 INCHES IN THIS TIME
FRAME. IF THESE RATES ARE REALIZED...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS
PRODUCING THEM PASS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THURSDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF FRI WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THEREAFTER...A STRATIFORM RAIN
AND/OR SHOWERS DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT.
THIS MAY EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING. RAIN MAY LINGER EVEN INTO
SUN BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT/MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW
000
FXUS61 KOKX 230232
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1032 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY...THEN MOVE
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
FRIDAY...REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY...AND THEN
TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN PA BEGINNING TO
BREAK UP AS THEY TRACK NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING UP OVER NORTHERN VA AND MD...AND THEY ARE
TRACKING NORTHEAST AS WELL. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE LOCAL AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD SCATTER OUT BEFORE IT
REACHES THE CWA...AND THE MARINE LAYER OVER THE REGION SHOULD HELP
TO TEMPER ANY STORM AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE AREA. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND IN THE LOWER
60S NEAR THE COAST. THESE TEMPS ARE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
MORNING SHOULD ERODE THE MARINE INVERSION - BUT STILL WILL BE
LEFT WITH QUITE A BIT OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WITH MOIST SW FLOW
ALOFT.
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SERVE AS TRIGGER FOR SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA
WITH EMBEDDED TSRA. LIKELY POPS MAINLY FROM NYC-INTERIOR SW CT
ZONES ON W AND CHANCE POPS EAST OF THAT LINE. SOME SUGGESTION FROM
NAM/GFS THAT EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW
TOO MUCH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TO
FORECAST THAT AT THIS TIME.
WITH 30-35 KT BULK SHEAR...1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBERS 15-30 HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
MAYBE NYC AND SW CT ZONES. MAIN THREAT IS GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR LOW LEVEL HELICITY WITH S SFC FLOW
AND SW FLOW AT 850 HPA.
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 HPA NEAR
THE COAST AND 950 HPA INLAND...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A
BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE. FORECASTING VALUES AROUND NORMAL
EAST TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEST.
DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT...BECOMES DIFFLUENT AT 500 HPA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS A RESULT. REFER TO THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR DETAILS. SEVERE THREAT COULD LINGER INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AS WELL.
FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH
VALUES FORECAST AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THERE
IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ON TAKING A CLOSED
UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRI NE TO OVER NEW ENGLAND
ON SUN. THE NAM AND GGEM ARE TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE BEYOND 00Z SAT. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME IS TO GO
WITH THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND THE RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY BEING EXHIBITED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THIS RESULTS IN A WET...COOL WEEKEND WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE FRI-SAT
TIME FRAME. SINCE THIS IS A BIG ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...HAVE RAMPED UP RAIN CHANCES FRI INTO SAT...BUT THESE MAY
BE UNDERDONE...ESPECIALLY FOR SAT WHERE THERE IS A TREND IN THE
FORECAST TO DRY THINGS OUT SAT INTO SUN. LATEST ECMWF KEEPS
CONDITIONS WET INTO SUN WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE. SO
THIS IS THE POINT IN THE FORECAST WHERE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.
ONCE AGAIN...WHILE THE FORECAST HAS AGGRESSIVELY TAKEN A DOWNWARD
NOTE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES MAY BE ON THE INCREASE
SAT INTO SUN BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE RAINFALL ON FRI...OR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY MAY BE CONVECTIVE WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...THE AIRMASS STABILIZES IN
THE LOW-LEVELS WITH POST-FRONTAL RAIN/SHOWERS...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. WIND GUSTS SAT
INTO SUN MAY BE UP TO 35 MPH...BUT THIS IS THE POTENTIAL...WITH THE
FORECASTS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AT THIS TIME.
AS FOR TEMPS...DAYTIME HIGHS WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE. A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS IS THEN FORECAST MON-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE NYC VICINITY
AROUND 08Z.
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN FOG POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT THE NYC TERMINALS IN
DIMINISHING. IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG POSSIBLE AT
THE TERMINALS EAST OF NEW YORK CITY...CEILINGS MAY BECOME LIFR AFTER
09Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER
17Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO.
WIND WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA...ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE.
MVFR TO IFR IN SHOWERS...FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER. N WINDS 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH 6AM DUE TO
FOG RESTRICTING VSBY TO LESS THAN 1 NM. THIS ADV MAY HAVE TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS.
SEAS COMING UP TO SCA LEVELS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WINDS ALSO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN UP INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
INCREASES POTENTIAL FOR SCA LEVEL GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS - SO HAVE KEPT HEADLINE AS SCA VICE CONVERTING TO AN SCA
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.
MARINE INVERSION APPEARS WILL LIMIT MIXING - SO WHILE COULD SEE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT - DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE
SCA AT THIS TIME FOR THE NON-OCEAN ZONES.
THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE WATERS ON FRI AND
LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SCA CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS SAT
INTO SUN. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SUN INTO MON WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 3/4 TO 1 INCH BASIN AVERAGE QPF
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT THURSDAY FROM ANY
SHRA/TSRA BUT COULD SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING UNDER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION - ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT - WITH LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF 1-1.5 INCHES/HR POSSIBLE
NOTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.5-1/75 INCHES IN THIS TIME
FRAME. IF THESE RATES ARE REALIZED...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS
PRODUCING THEM PASS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THURSDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF FRI WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THEREAFTER...A STRATIFORM RAIN
AND/OR SHOWERS DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT.
THIS MAY EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING. RAIN MAY LINGER EVEN INTO
SUN BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW
000
FXUS61 KOKX 230143
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
943 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY...THEN MOVE
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
FRIDAY...REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY...AND THEN
TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN PA BEGINNING TO
BREAK UP AS THEY TRACK NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING UP OVER NORTHERN VA AND MD...AND THEY ARE
TRACKING NORTHEAST AS WELL. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE LOCAL AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD SCATTER OUT BEFORE IT
REACHES THE CWA...AND THE MARINE LAYER OVER THE REGION SHOULD HELP
TO TEMPER ANY STORM AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE AREA. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND IN THE LOWER
60S NEAR THE COAST. THESE TEMPS ARE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
MORNING SHOULD ERODE THE MARINE INVERSION - BUT STILL WILL BE
LEFT WITH QUITE A BIT OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WITH MOIST SW FLOW
ALOFT.
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SERVE AS TRIGGER FOR SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA
WITH EMBEDDED TSRA. LIKELY POPS MAINLY FROM NYC-INTERIOR SW CT
ZONES ON W AND CHANCE POPS EAST OF THAT LINE. SOME SUGGESTION FROM
NAM/GFS THAT EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW
TOO MUCH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TO
FORECAST THAT AT THIS TIME.
WITH 30-35 KT BULK SHEAR...1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBERS 15-30 HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
MAYBE NYC AND SW CT ZONES. MAIN THREAT IS GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR LOW LEVEL HELICITY WITH S SFC FLOW
AND SW FLOW AT 850 HPA.
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 HPA NEAR
THE COAST AND 950 HPA INLAND...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A
BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE. FORECASTING VALUES AROUND NORMAL
EAST TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEST.
DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT...BECOMES DIFFLUENT AT 500 HPA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS A RESULT. REFER TO THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR DETAILS. SEVERE THREAT COULD LINGER INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AS WELL.
FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH
VALUES FORECAST AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THERE
IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ON TAKING A CLOSED
UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRI NE TO OVER NEW ENGLAND
ON SUN. THE NAM AND GGEM ARE TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE BEYOND 00Z SAT. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME IS TO GO
WITH THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND THE RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY BEING EXHIBITED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THIS RESULTS IN A WET...COOL WEEKEND WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE FRI-SAT
TIME FRAME. SINCE THIS IS A BIG ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...HAVE RAMPED UP RAIN CHANCES FRI INTO SAT...BUT THESE MAY
BE UNDERDONE...ESPECIALLY FOR SAT WHERE THERE IS A TREND IN THE
FORECAST TO DRY THINGS OUT SAT INTO SUN. LATEST ECMWF KEEPS
CONDITIONS WET INTO SUN WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE. SO
THIS IS THE POINT IN THE FORECAST WHERE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.
ONCE AGAIN...WHILE THE FORECAST HAS AGGRESSIVELY TAKEN A DOWNWARD
NOTE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES MAY BE ON THE INCREASE
SAT INTO SUN BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE RAINFALL ON FRI...OR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY MAY BE CONVECTIVE WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...THE AIRMASS STABILIZES IN
THE LOW-LEVELS WITH POST-FRONTAL RAIN/SHOWERS...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. WIND GUSTS SAT
INTO SUN MAY BE UP TO 35 MPH...BUT THIS IS THE POTENTIAL...WITH THE
FORECASTS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AT THIS TIME.
AS FOR TEMPS...DAYTIME HIGHS WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE. A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS IS THEN FORECAST MON-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR
THE NEW YORK CITY TERMINALS AND WEST. TO THE EAST IFR CEILINGS AND
FOG WILL BE DEVELOPING...WITH LIFR AT TIMES AFTER 07Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER 17Z.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO.
WIND WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LATE THIS EVENING FOR MVFR
CEILINGS AND FOG DEVELOPING. AMENDMENTS FOR TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LATE THIS EVENING FOR MVFR
CEILINGS AND FOG DEVELOPING. AMENDMENTS FOR TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS TONIGHT. AMENDMENTS
FOR TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS TONIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND FOG POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. AMENDMENTS FOR TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LATE THIS EVENING FOR MVFR
CEILINGS AND FOG DEVELOPING...WITH IFR AT TIMES. AMENDMENTS FOR
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS THIS EVENING FOR IFR CEILINGS AND
FOG. AMENDMENTS THURSDAY FOR SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS
LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA...ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE.
MVFR TO IFR IN SHOWERS...FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER. N WINDS 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH 6AM DUE TO
FOG RESTRICTING VSBY TO LESS THAN 1 NM. THIS ADV MAY HAVE TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS.
SEAS COMING UP TO SCA LEVELS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WINDS ALSO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN UP INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
INCREASES POTENTIAL FOR SCA LEVEL GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS - SO HAVE KEPT HEADLINE AS SCA VICE CONVERTING TO AN SCA
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.
MARINE INVERSION APPEARS WILL LIMIT MIXING - SO WHILE COULD SEE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT - DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE
SCA AT THIS TIME FOR THE NON-OCEAN ZONES.
THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE WATERS ON FRI AND
LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SCA CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS SAT
INTO SUN. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SUN INTO MON WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 3/4 TO 1 INCH BASIN AVERAGE QPF
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT THURSDAY FROM ANY
SHRA/TSRA BUT COULD SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING UNDER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION - ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT - WITH LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF 1-1.5 INCHES/HR POSSIBLE
NOTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.5-1/75 INCHES IN THIS TIME
FRAME. IF THESE RATES ARE REALIZED...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS
PRODUCING THEM PASS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THURSDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF FRI WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THEREAFTER...A STRATIFORM RAIN
AND/OR SHOWERS DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT.
THIS MAY EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING. RAIN MAY LINGER EVEN INTO
SUN BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...PICCA/MET
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW
000
FXUS61 KOKX 222351
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
751 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY...THEN MOVE
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
FRIDAY...REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY...AND THEN
TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE CWA ARE
BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WOULD NOT
EXPECT MUSH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...MAINLY FOR THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
HOWEVER...BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY TRYING
TO ORGANIZE OVER CENTRAL PA. WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...THESE STORMS WILL TAKE SOME TIME APPROACHING WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND IF THEY DO MAKE IT HERE...IT WILL NOT BE
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WITH LATEST HRRR INDICATING SCT ACTIVITY AFTER
08Z. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE...AS MARINE LAYER SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM FORMING.
WITH MARINE LAYER INTACT - WOULD EXPECT LOW CLOUD DECK TO RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG
AS WELL - POSSIBLY LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST.
FOR LOWS USED A BLEND OF 50 PERCENT MAV GUIDANCE WITH 25 PERCENT
MET GUIDANCE AND 25 PERCENT NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. FORECASTING
LOWS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
MORNING SHOULD ERODE THE MARINE INVERSION - BUT STILL WILL BE
LEFT WITH QUITE A BIT OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WITH MOIST SW FLOW
ALOFT.
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SERVE AS TRIGGER FOR SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA
WITH EMBEDDED TSRA. LIKELY POPS MAINLY FROM NYC-INTERIOR SW CT
ZONES ON W AND CHANCE POPS EAST OF THAT LINE. SOME SUGGESTION FROM
NAM/GFS THAT EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW
TOO MUCH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TO
FORECAST THAT AT THIS TIME.
WITH 30-35 KT BULK SHEAR...1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBERS 15-30 HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
MAYBE NYC AND SW CT ZONES. MAIN THREAT IS GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR LOW LEVEL HELICITY WITH S SFC FLOW
AND SW FLOW AT 850 HPA.
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 HPA NEAR
THE COAST AND 950 HPA INLAND...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A
BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE. FORECASTING VALUES AROUND NORMAL
EAST TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEST.
DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT...BECOMES DIFFLUENT AT 500 HPA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS A RESULT. REFER TO THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR DETAILS. SEVERE THREAT COULD LINGER INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AS WELL.
FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH
VALUES FORECAST AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THERE
IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ON TAKING A CLOSED
UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRI NE TO OVER NEW ENGLAND
ON SUN. THE NAM AND GGEM ARE TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE BEYOND 00Z SAT. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME IS TO GO
WITH THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND THE RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY BEING EXHIBITED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THIS RESULTS IN A WET...COOL WEEKEND WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE FRI-SAT
TIME FRAME. SINCE THIS IS A BIG ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...HAVE RAMPED UP RAIN CHANCES FRI INTO SAT...BUT THESE MAY
BE UNDERDONE...ESPECIALLY FOR SAT WHERE THERE IS A TREND IN THE
FORECAST TO DRY THINGS OUT SAT INTO SUN. LATEST ECMWF KEEPS
CONDITIONS WET INTO SUN WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE. SO
THIS IS THE POINT IN THE FORECAST WHERE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.
ONCE AGAIN...WHILE THE FORECAST HAS AGGRESSIVELY TAKEN A DOWNWARD
NOTE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES MAY BE ON THE INCREASE
SAT INTO SUN BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE RAINFALL ON FRI...OR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY MAY BE CONVECTIVE WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...THE AIRMASS STABILIZES IN
THE LOW-LEVELS WITH POST-FRONTAL RAIN/SHOWERS...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. WIND GUSTS SAT
INTO SUN MAY BE UP TO 35 MPH...BUT THIS IS THE POTENTIAL...WITH THE
FORECASTS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AT THIS TIME.
AS FOR TEMPS...DAYTIME HIGHS WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE. A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS IS THEN FORECAST MON-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR
THE NEW YORK CITY TERMINALS AND WEST. TO THE EAST IFR CEILINGS AND
FOG WILL BE DEVELOPING...WITH LIFR AT TIMES AFTER 07Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER 17Z.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO.
WIND WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LATE THIS EVENING FOR MVFR
CEILINGS AND FOG DEVELOPING. AMENDMENTS FOR TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LATE THIS EVENING FOR MVFR
CEILINGS AND FOG DEVELOPING. AMENDMENTS FOR TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS TONIGHT. AMENDMENTS
FOR TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS TONIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND FOG POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. AMENDMENTS FOR TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LATE THIS EVENING FOR MVFR
CEILINGS AND FOG DEVELOPING...WITH IFR AT TIMES. AMENDMENTS FOR
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS THIS EVENING FOR IFR CEILINGS AND
FOG. AMENDMENTS THURSDAY FOR SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS
LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA...ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE.
MVFR TO IFR IN SHOWERS...FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER. N WINDS 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL
WATERS AS WEB-CAMS NEAR LI SOUND...MAINLY EASTERN LI SOUND...
INDICATED LOWERING VSBY. SO FAR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE
AT 6 AM THURSDAY...BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE
MID-MORNING HOURS.
SEAS ARE RUNNING 1-2 FT BELOW WAVEWATCH FORECAST - SO FOR NOW HAVE
TAKEN 1 FT OFF OF WAVEWATCH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. STILL EXPECT
SEAS TO COME UP TO SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALSO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN UP
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INCREASES POTENTIAL FOR SCA LEVEL GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS - SO HAVE KEPT HEADLINE AS SCA VICE CONVERTING TO AN
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.
MARINE INVERSION APPEARS WILL LIMIT MIXING - SO WHILE COULD SEE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT - DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE
SCA AT THIS TIME FOR THE NON-OCEAN ZONES.
THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE WATERS ON FRI AND
LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SCA CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS SAT
INTO SUN. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SUN INTO MON WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 3/4 TO 1 INCH BASIN AVERAGE QPF
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT THURSDAY FROM ANY
SHRA/TSRA BUT COULD SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING UNDER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION - ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT - WITH LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF 1-1.5 INCHES/HR POSSIBLE
NOTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.5-1/75 INCHES IN THIS TIME
FRAME. IF THESE RATES ARE REALIZED...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS
PRODUCING THEM PASS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THURSDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF FRI WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THEREAFTER...A STRATIFORM RAIN
AND/OR SHOWERS DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT.
THIS MAY EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING. RAIN MAY LINGER EVEN INTO
SUN BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW
000
FXUS61 KOKX 222035
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
435 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY...THEN MOVE
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
FRIDAY...REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY...AND THEN
TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED JUST TO THE W AND S OF THE
AREA...WITH A MARINE AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS FRONT SHOULD
NOT MOVE MUCH...IF AT ALL TONIGHT...SO WOULD EXPECT MOST IF NOT
ALL PRECIPITATION TO GO N OF THE AREA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
HRRR AND RAP...WHICH HAVE HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS FRONT AND
THE WEATHER TODAY BY FAR...ALONG WITH THE NAM AND SREF.
BASED ON THIS HAVE GONE BASICALLY DRY ACROSS THE S 2/3 OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR N TIER...THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE.
WITH MARINE LAYER INTACT - WOULD EXPECT LOW CLOUD DECK TO RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG
AS WELL - POSSIBLY LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST.
FOR LOWS USED A BLEND OF 50 PERCENT MAV GUIDANCE WITH 25 PERCENT
MET GUIDANCE AND 25 PERCENT NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. FORECASTING
LOWS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
MORNING SHOULD ERODE THE MARINE INVERSION - BUT STILL WILL BE
LEFT WITH QUITE A BIT OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WITH MOIST SW FLOW
ALOFT.
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SERVE AS TRIGGER FOR SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA
WITH EMBEDDED TSRA. LIKELY POPS MAINLY FROM NYC-INTERIOR SW CT
ZONES ON W AND CHANCE POPS EAST OF THAT LINE. SOME SUGGESTION FROM
NAM/GFS THAT EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW
TOO MUCH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TO
FORECAST THAT AT THIS TIME.
WITH 30-35 KT BULK SHEAR...1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBERS 15-30 HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
MAYBE NYC AND SW CT ZONES. MAIN THREAT IS GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR LOW LEVEL HELICITY WITH S SFC FLOW
AND SW FLOW AT 850 HPA.
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 HPA NEAR
THE COAST AND 950 HPA INLAND...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A
BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE. FORECASTING VALUES AROUND NORMAL
EAST TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEST.
DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT...BECOMES DIFFLUENT AT 500 HPA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS A RESULT. REFER TO THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR DETAILS. SEVERE THREAT COULD LINGER INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AS WELL.
FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH
VALUES FORECAST AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THERE
IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ON TAKING A CLOSED
UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRI NE TO OVER NEW ENGLAND
ON SUN. THE NAM AND GGEM ARE TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE BEYOND 00Z SAT. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME IS TO GO
WITH THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND THE RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY BEING EXHIBITED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THIS RESULTS IN A WET...COOL WEEKEND WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE FRI-SAT
TIME FRAME. SINCE THIS IS A BIG ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...HAVE RAMPED UP RAIN CHANCES FRI INTO SAT...BUT THESE MAY
BE UNDERDONE...ESPECIALLY FOR SAT WHERE THERE IS A TREND IN THE
FORECAST TO DRY THINGS OUT SAT INTO SUN. LATEST ECMWF KEEPS
CONDITIONS WET INTO SUN WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE. SO
THIS IS THE POINT IN THE FORECAST WHERE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.
ONCE AGAIN...WHILE THE FORECAST HAS AGGRESSIVELY TAKEN A DOWNWARD
NOTE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES MAY BE ON THE INCREASE
SAT INTO SUN BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE RAINFALL ON FRI...OR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY MAY BE CONVECTIVE WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...THE AIRMASS STABILIZES IN
THE LOW-LEVELS WITH POST-FRONTAL RAIN/SHOWERS...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. WIND GUSTS SAT
INTO SUN MAY BE UP TO 35 MPH...BUT THIS IS THE POTENTIAL...WITH THE
FORECASTS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AT THIS TIME.
AS FOR TEMPS...DAYTIME HIGHS WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE. A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS IS THEN FORECAST MON-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT...IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN QUITE SLOW. IFR/MVFR CIGS AND
VSBY GENERALLY THE STANDARD. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE
IMPROVEMENT PRIMARILY AT NW TERMINALS.
IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO RETURN AT KEWR...KTEB...AND
KSWF OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL HIGH ENOUGH POTENTIAL THAT IFR
CONDITIONS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE TAFS IN ADDITION TO ALL OTHER
SITES OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS TO DROP TO
LIFR AS WELL.
LOW-END CHANCES FOR TS TO AFFECT ANY ONE TERMINAL SITE AFTER 18Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...DID INCLUDE PROB30 GROUPS AT 30-HOUR SITES TO
INDICATE THE GROWING POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBILITY FOR VSBY TO DROP QUICKER/LOWER
THAN FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO GO VFR BRIEFLY EARLY
THIS EVENING.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY RISE HIGHER THAN INDICATED IN TAF
OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY RISE HIGHER THAN INDICATED IN TAF
OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY RISE HIGHER THAN INDICATED IN TAF
OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR VSBY/CIGS LOWER THAN FORECAST
TONIGHT.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBILITY FOR VSBY TO DROP QUICKER/LOWER
THAN FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE....PRIMARILY
THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER. N WINDS 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR G
UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEB-CAMS...AND RAP SOUNDINGS WARRANT
EXTENDING DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS S/W OF LONG ISLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. MIGHT ULTIMATELY END UP NEED TO EXTEND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING - BUT TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF MIXING
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT TO DO SO AT THIS TIME.
SEAS ARE RUNNING 1-2 FT BELOW WAVEWATCH FORECAST - SO FOR NOW HAVE
TAKEN 1 FT OFF OF WAVEWATCH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. STILL EXPECT
SEAS TO COME UP TO SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALSO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN UP
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INCREASES POTENTIAL FOR SCA LEVEL GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS - SO HAVE KEPT HEADLINE AS SCA VICE CONVERTING TO AN
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.
MARINE INVERSION APPEARS WILL LIMIT MIXING - SO WHILE COULD SEE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT - DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE
SCA AT THIS TIME FOR THE NON-OCEAN ZONES.
THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE WATERS ON FRI AND
LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SCA CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS SAT
INTO SUN. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SUN INTO MON WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 3/4 TO 1 INCH BASIN AVERAGE QPF
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT THURSDAY FROM ANY
SHRA/TSRA BUT COULD SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING UNDER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION - ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT - WITH LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF 1-1.5 INCHES/HR POSSIBLE
NOTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.5-1/75 INCHES IN THIS TIME
FRAME. IF THESE RATES ARE REALIZED...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS
PRODUCING THEM PASS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THURSDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF FRI WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THEREAFTER...A STRATIFORM RAIN
AND/OR SHOWERS DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT.
THIS MAY EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING. RAIN MAY LINGER EVEN INTO
SUN BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ338-345-350-
353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...PICCA/MET
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW
000
FXUS61 KOKX 222007
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
407 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY...THEN MOVE
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
FRIDAY...REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY...AND THEN
TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED JUST TO THE W AND S OF THE
AREA...WITH A MARINE AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS FRONT SHOULD
NOT MOVE MUCH...IF AT ALL TONIGHT...SO WOULD EXPECT MOST IF NOT
ALL PRECIPITATION TO GO N OF THE AREA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
HRRR AND RAP...WHICH HAVE HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS FRONT AND
THE WEATHER TODAY BY FAR...ALONG WITH THE NAM AND SREF.
BASED ON THIS HAVE GONE BASICALLY DRY ACROSS THE S 2/3 OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR N TIER...THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE.
WITH MARINE LAYER INTACT - WOULD EXPECT LOW CLOUD DECK TO RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG
AS WELL - POSSIBLY LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST.
FOR LOWS USED A BLEND OF 50 PERCENT MAV GUIDANCE WITH 25 PERCENT
MET GUIDANCE AND 25 PERCENT NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. FORECASTING
LOWS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
MORNING SHOULD ERODE THE MARINE INVERSION - BUT STILL WILL BE
LEFT WITH QUITE A BIT OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WITH MOIST SW FLOW
ALOFT.
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SERVE AS TRIGGER FOR SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA
WITH EMBEDDED TSRA. LIKELY POPS MAINLY FROM NYC-INTERIOR SW CT
ZONES ON W AND CHANCE POPS EAST OF THAT LINE. SOME SUGGESTION FROM
NAM/GFS THAT EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW
TOO MUCH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TO
FORECAST THAT AT THIS TIME.
WITH 30-35 KT BULK SHEAR...1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBERS 15-30 HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
MAYBE NYC AND SW CT ZONES. MAIN THREAT IS GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR LOW LEVEL HELICITY WITH S SFC FLOW
AND SW FLOW AT 850 HPA.
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 HPA NEAR
THE COAST AND 950 HPA INLAND...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A
BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE. FORECASTING VALUES AROUND NORMAL
EAST TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEST.
DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT...BECOMES DIFFLUENT AT 500 HPA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS A RESULT. REFER TO THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR DETAILS. SEVERE THREAT COULD LINGER INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AS WELL.
FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH
VALUES FORECAST AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THERE
IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ON TAKING A CLOSED
UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRI NE TO OVER NEW ENGLAND
ON SUN. THE NAM AND GGEM ARE TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE BEYOND 00Z SAT. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME IS TO GO
WITH THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND THE RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY BEING EXHIBITED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THIS RESULTS IN A WET...COOL WEEKEND WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE FRI-SAT
TIME FRAME. SINCE THIS IS A BIG ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...HAVE RAMPED UP RAIN CHANCES FRI INTO SAT...BUT THESE MAY
BE UNDERDONE...ESPECIALLY FOR SAT WHERE THERE IS A TREND IN THE
FORECAST TO DRY THINGS OUT SAT INTO SUN. LATEST ECMWF KEEPS
CONDITIONS WET INTO SUN WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE. SO
THIS IS THE POINT IN THE FORECAST WHERE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.
ONCE AGAIN...WHILE THE FORECAST HAS AGGRESSIVELY TAKEN A DOWNWARD
NOTE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES MAY BE ON THE INCREASE
SAT INTO SUN BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE RAINFALL ON FRI...OR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY MAY BE CONVECTIVE WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...THE AIRMASS STABILIZES IN
THE LOW-LEVELS WITH POST-FRONTAL RAIN/SHOWERS...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. WIND GUSTS SAT
INTO SUN MAY BE UP TO 35 MPH...BUT THIS IS THE POTENTIAL...WITH THE
FORECASTS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AT THIS TIME.
AS FOR TEMPS...DAYTIME HIGHS WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE. A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS IS THEN FORECAST MON-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT...IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN QUITE SLOW. IFR/MVFR CIGS AND
VSBY GENERALLY THE STANDARD. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE
IMPROVEMENT PRIMARILY AT NW TERMINALS.
RECENT OBS SHOW WINDS FINALLY TURNING S AT KJFK/KEWR...WHICH MAY
BE A SIGN OF BRIEFLY INCREASING VSBY/CIGS. HOWEVER...BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND DEVELOPING S WIND...GROWING POTENTIAL FOR IFR
VSBY TO PUSH BACK INTO COASTAL TERMINALS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP SOLIDLY INTO IFR AGAIN
TONIGHT...HOWEVER MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER TIMING AND EXTENT.
POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR LIFR/VLIFR ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS.
DID NOT SHOW TS IN TAFS ON THURSDAY JUST YET...AS UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
INDICATES STORMS MAY BE SLOW TO APPROACH WESTERN TERMINALS AND
COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...LOW END
POTENTIAL EXISTS AT W TERMS GENERALLY 23/18Z THROUGH 24/00Z.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBILITY FOR VSBY TO DROP QUICKER/LOWER
THAN FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO GO VFR BRIEFLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION MAY STAY E/NE A
COUPLE HOURS LONGER THAN INDICATED IN TAF.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY RISE HIGHER THAN INDICATED IN TAF
OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR VSBY/CIGS LOWER THAN FORECAST
TONIGHT.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY RISE HIGHER THAN INDICATED IN TAF
OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR VSBY/CIGS LOWER THAN FORECAST
TONIGHT.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY RISE HIGHER THAN INDICATED IN TAF
OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR VSBY/CIGS LOWER THAN FORECAST
TONIGHT.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBILITY FOR VSBY TO DROP QUICKER/LOWER
THAN FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE....PRIMARILY
THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER. N WINDS 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR G
UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEB-CAMS...AND RAP SOUNDINGS WARRANT
EXTENDING DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS S/W OF LONG ISLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. MIGHT ULTIMATELY END UP NEED TO EXTEND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING - BUT TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF MIXING
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT TO DO SO AT THIS TIME.
SEAS ARE RUNNING 1-2 FT BELOW WAVEWATCH FORECAST - SO FOR NOW HAVE
TAKEN 1 FT OFF OF WAVEWATCH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. STILL EXPECT
SEAS TO COME UP TO SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALSO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN UP
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INCREASES POTENTIAL FOR SCA LEVEL GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS - SO HAVE KEPT HEADLINE AS SCA VICE CONVERTING TO AN
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.
MARINE INVERSION APPEARS WILL LIMIT MIXING - SO WHILE COULD SEE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT - DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE
SCA AT THIS TIME FOR THE NON-OCEAN ZONES.
THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE WATERS ON FRI AND
LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SCA CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS SAT
INTO SUN. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SUN INTO MON WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 3/4 TO 1 INCH BASIN AVERAGE QPF
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT THURSDAY FROM ANY
SHRA/TSRA BUT COULD SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING UNDER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION - ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT - WITH LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF 1-1.5 INCHES/HR POSSIBLE
NOTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.5-1/75 INCHES IN THIS TIME
FRAME. IF THESE RATES ARE REALIZED...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS
PRODUCING THEM PASS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THURSDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF FRI WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THEREAFTER...A STRATIFORM RAIN
AND/OR SHOWERS DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT.
THIS MAY EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING. RAIN MAY LINGER EVEN INTO
SUN BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ338-345-350-
353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...PICCA
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW
000
FXUS61 KOKX 221815
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
215 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY...THEN PASS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH OVERNIGHT REMAINS STALLED
OUT TO THE W AND S OF THE AREA. HRRR AND RAP ARE THE ONLY MODELS WITH
ANY CLUE TO ITS EXISTENCE. LOOKING AT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
AND RAP SOUNDINGS...HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT HRRR/RAP SHOWING BOUNDARY
PUSH BACK INTO FAR W ZONES AS A WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT FORECAST CLOUDY-MOSTLY CLOUDY AND LOWERED
TEMPERATURES AGAIN. NOW FORECASTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S...WITH
UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
STILL APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THIS AFTERNOON PER
HRRR/RAP. HOWEVER WITH CONVECTION FIRING W OF AREA...HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ELEVATED IN NATURE AS THEY MOVE OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE
MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE...SO THE SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON IS
NIL ACROSS THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA AND LESS THAN 5 PERCENT ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INCREASING CONCERN THAT THE MARINE LAYER WILL NOT DISSIPATE/FRONT
LIFT TO THE N BY THIS EVENING - AND THAT THE MARINE LAYER WILL
MAINTAIN ITSELF OVER MOST IF NOT ALL THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS - BUT COULD END UP MAKING SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO TONIGHTS FORECAST IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD.
SCT-ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD BE
SCATTERED AT BEST WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE
AREA.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE FOR THE START OF THIS PERIOD IS THE INTERACTION OF THE
EASTWARD MOVING CENTRAL US TROUGH WITH SEVERAL NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND A PERSISTENT EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH. THE
COMPLEX INTERACTION IS RESULTING IN TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION ISSUES
AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES TO THE EAST COAST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE FRI INTO SAT AS THE UPPER LOW NEGATIVELY TILTS
AND CLOSES OFF AS IT APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN INTO SAT. WITH
MAJORITY OF 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE TRENDING A BIT SLOWER...HAVE
ALSO TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERING
OFF FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED TO SEE IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWS
DOWN EVEN FURTHER.
AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THU NIGHT INTO FRI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE FALLING TO
MARGINAL LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/COLD FRONT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT
WITH PWATS ABOUT 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL AND STEERING FLOW NEARLY ALIGNED
WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE EXTENT OF
INTERACTION OF THE FRONT WITH A SUBTROPICAL PLUME STREAMING UP THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IF CLOSER TO THE COAST WOULD ENHANCE
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT COULD
PROLONG LIGHT TO MODERATE POST-FRONTAL STRATIFORM RAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
A DRYING NW FLOW SET UPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT...IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN QUITE SLOW. IFR/MVFR CIGS AND
VSBY GENERALLY THE STANDARD. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE
IMPROVEMENT PRIMARILY AT NW TERMINALS.
RECENT OBS SHOW WINDS FINALLY TURNING S AT KJFK/KEWR...WHICH MAY
BE A SIGN OF BRIEFLY INCREASING VSBY/CIGS. HOWEVER...BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND DEVELOPING S WIND...GROWING POTENTIAL FOR IFR
VSBY TO PUSH BACK INTO COASTAL TERMINALS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP SOLIDLY INTO IFR AGAIN
TONIGHT...HOWEVER MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER TIMING AND EXTENT.
POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR LIFR/VLIFR ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS.
DID NOT SHOW TS IN TAFS ON THURSDAY JUST YET...AS UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
INDICATES STORMS MAY BE SLOW TO APPROACH WESTERN TERMINALS AND
COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...LOW END
POTENTIAL EXISTS AT W TERMS GENERALLY 23/18Z THRU 24/00Z.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBILITY FOR VSBY TO DROP QUICKER/LOWER
THAN FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO GO VFR BRIEFLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION MAY STAY E/NE A
COUPLE HOURS LONGER THAN INDICATED IN TAF.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY RISE HIGHER THAN INDICATED IN TAF
OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR VSBY/CIGS LOWER THAN FORECAST
TONIGHT.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY RISE HIGHER THAN INDICATED IN TAF
OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR VSBY/CIGS LOWER THAN FORECAST
TONIGHT.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY RISE HIGHER THAN INDICATED IN TAF
OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR VSBY/CIGS LOWER THAN FORECAST
TONIGHT.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBILITY FOR VSBY TO DROP QUICKER/LOWER
THAN FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE....PRIMARILY
THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER. N WINDS 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR G
UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
BASED ON HRRR AND LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND WEB-CAMS HAVE
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES...NY
HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH 22Z. GIVEN
NO RESTRICTIONS OF 1NM OR LESS IN VISIBILITY EVIDENT ON SOUND OR
EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...HAVE CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THERE.
THERE SEEMS TO BE INCREASING POTENIAL FOR DENSE FOG OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. IF TRENDS HOLD...WILL EXTEND
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN TIME THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE.
SEAS ARE NOT INCREASING AS FAST AS FORECAST...SO HAVE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD A FOOT OR SO ACROSS MOST OCEAN AREAS INTO THIS EVENING.
SEAS SLOWLY BUILD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY. SW FLOW INCREASES OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT
AS WELL WITH SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING TO NEAR THE LONG ISLAND COAST IF
NOT FARTHER N.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL BELOW MARGINAL SCA LEVELS
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE
SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY
SWELLS. UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A FOOT DURING THIS TIME AS IT WAS
SLOWER BRINGING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THOUGH
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SEAS DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
THE MODELS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
TOTAL BASIN AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN TSTMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE
THU INTO FRIDAY MORNING...SHOULD PRODUCE AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338-345-
350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/NV
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...PICCA
MARINE...24/MALOIT/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV
000
FXUS61 KOKX 221649
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1249 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY...THEN PASS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH OVERNIGHT REMAINS STALLED
OUT TO THE W AND S OF THE AREA. HRRR AND RAP ARE THE ONLY MODELS WITH
ANY CLUE TO ITS EXISTENCE. LOOKING AT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
AND RAP SOUNDINGS...HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT HRRR/RAP SHOWING BOUNDARY
PUSH BACK INTO FAR W ZONES AS A WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT FORECAST CLOUDY-MOSTLY CLOUDY AND LOWERED
TEMPERATURES AGAIN. NOW FORECASTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S...WITH
UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
STILL APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THIS AFTERNOON PER
HRRR/RAP. HOWEVER WITH CONVECTION FIRING W OF AREA...HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ELEVATED IN NATURE AS THEY MOVE OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE
MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE...SO THE SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON IS
NIL ACROSS THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA AND LESS THAN 5 PERCENT ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INCREASING CONCERN THAT THE MARINE LAYER WILL NOT DISSIPATE/FRONT
LIFT TO THE N BY THIS EVENING - AND THAT THE MARINE LAYER WILL
MAINTAIN ITSELF OVER MOST IF NOT ALL THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS - BUT COULD END UP MAKING SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO TONIGHTS FORECAST IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD.
SCT-ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD BE
SCATTERED AT BEST WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE
AREA.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE FOR THE START OF THIS PERIOD IS THE INTERACTION OF THE
EASTWARD MOVING CENTRAL US TROUGH WITH SEVERAL NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND A PERSISTENT EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH. THE
COMPLEX INTERACTION IS RESULTING IN TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION ISSUES
AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES TO THE EAST COAST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE FRI INTO SAT AS THE UPPER LOW NEGATIVELY TILTS
AND CLOSES OFF AS IT APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN INTO SAT. WITH
MAJORITY OF 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE TRENDING A BIT SLOWER...HAVE
ALSO TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERING
OFF FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED TO SEE IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWS
DOWN EVEN FURTHER.
AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THU NIGHT INTO FRI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE FALLING TO
MARGINAL LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/COLD FRONT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT
WITH PWATS ABOUT 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL AND STEERING FLOW NEARLY ALIGNED
WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE EXTENT OF
INTERACTION OF THE FRONT WITH A SUBTROPICAL PLUME STREAMING UP THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IF CLOSER TO THE COAST WOULD ENHANCE
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT COULD
PROLONG LIGHT TO MODERATE POST-FRONTAL STRATIFORM RAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
A DRYING NW FLOW SET UPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING.
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY...SHOWING IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AND VSBY GENERALLY
AROUND 17Z-21Z. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IMPROVEMENT...ESPECIALLY FOR CIGS...IS LOW. POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
TO STAY LIGHTER / MORE EASTERLY FOR A LONGER PERIOD THAN INDICATED
IN TAFS AS WELL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AT KSWF AND PERHAPS KHPN. MARINE LAYER
LIKELY TO KEEP TS AWAY FROM TERMINALS FARTHER SE.
IT COULD BE ANOTHER TRICKY NIGHT FORECASTING VFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS AT THE
OUTLYING TERMINALS...HOWEVER GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING AND JUST
HOW LOW CIGS AND VSBYS GET. WILL HOLD OFF IN LOWERING CONDITIONS
TOO MUCH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE
AT KGON.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN MUCH IMPROVEMENT AT
17Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CIGS. WINDS COULD STAY LIGHTER/MORE E FOR 1-2
HOURS LONGER THAN INDICATED IN TAF.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN MUCH IMPROVEMENT AT
17Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CIGS. WINDS COULD STAY LIGHTER/MORE E FOR 1-2
HOURS LONGER THAN INDICATED IN TAF.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN MUCH IMPROVEMENT AT
17Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CIGS. WINDS COULD STAY LIGHTER/MORE E FOR 1-2
HOURS LONGER THAN INDICATED IN TAF.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN MUCH IMPROVEMENT AT
17Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CIGS. WINDS COULD STAY LIGHTER FOR 1-2 HOURS
LONGER THAN INDICATED IN TAF.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN MUCH IMPROVEMENT AROUND
18-21Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CIGS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW POTENTIAL FOR CIGS/VSBY TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR OR HIGHER LEVELS AROUND 17-18Z. WIND SPEEDS MAY BE 1-2 HOURS
SLOWER TO INCREASE THAN SHOWN IN TAF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...RESIDUAL SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR. BECOMING VFR
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
BASED ON HRRR AND LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND WEB-CAMS HAVE
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES...NY
HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH 22Z. GIVEN
NO RESTRICTIONS OF 1NM OR LESS IN VISIBILITY EVIDENT ON SOUND OR
EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...HAVE CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THERE.
THERE SEEMS TO BE INCREASING POTENIAL FOR DENSE FOG OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. IF TRENDS HOLD...WILL EXTEND
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN TIME THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE.
SEAS ARE NOT INCREASING AS FAST AS FORECAST...SO HAVE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD A FOOT OR SO ACROSS MOST OCEAN AREAS INTO THIS EVENING.
SEAS SLOWLY BUILD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY. SW FLOW INCREASES OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT
AS WELL WITH SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING TO NEAR THE LONG ISLAND COAST IF
NOT FARTHER N.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL BELOW MARGINAL SCA LEVELS
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE
SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY
SWELLS. UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A FOOT DURING THIS TIME AS IT WAS
SLOWER BRINGING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THOUGH
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SEAS DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
THE MODELS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
TOTAL BASIN AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN TSTMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE
THU INTO FRIDAY MORNING...SHOULD PRODUCE AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338-345-
350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/24/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT/24
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...BC/PICCA
MARINE...MALOIT/24/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV
000
FXUS61 KOKX 221504
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1104 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY...THEN PASS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HRRR IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH SHOWS SHALLOW BACK DOOR FRONT MAKING
PROGRESS AS FAR TO THE S AND W AS IT DID...AND HOLDS THE FRONT
PRIMARILY TO OUT S AND W THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT
THAT EVEN THE HRRR IS TOO FAST TO ERODE MARINE LAYER.
EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY AS A RESULT.
FOR NOW HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SCALED BACK ON POPS FOR
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND RESTRICTED
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND THEN ONLY OVER NW
ZONES...AS STILL CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION FORMING OUTSIDE THE
CWA THEN MOVING IN.
TEMPERATURES LOWERED REFLECTING BLEND OF HRRR 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND LAV GUIDANCE - WHICH IS NOT ALL THAT BAD. DID NOT GO AS WARM
AS THIS WOULD SUGGEST THOUGH OVER NW ZONES - GIVEN SUSPICION THAT
MARINE LAYER HOLDS ON. WILL HAVE BETTER IDEA WHICH WAY TO PLAY
NW/FAR W ZONES WITH NEXT UPDATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HAVE CONCERN THAT IF THE MARINE LAYER DOES NOT DISSIPATE/FRONT
LIFT TO THE N BY THIS EVENING - THAT THE MARINE LAYER WILL
MAINTAIN ITSELF OVER MOST IF NOT ALL THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS - BUT COULD END UP MAKING SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO TONIGHTS FORECAST IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD.
SCT-ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD BE
SCATTERED AT BEST WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE
AREA.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE FOR THE START OF THIS PERIOD IS THE INTERACTION OF THE
EASTWARD MOVING CENTRAL US TROUGH WITH SEVERAL NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND A PERSISTENT EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH. THE
COMPLEX INTERACTION IS RESULTING IN TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION ISSUES
AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES TO THE EAST COAST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE FRI INTO SAT AS THE UPPER LOW NEGATIVELY TILTS
AND CLOSES OFF AS IT APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN INTO SAT. WITH
MAJORITY OF 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE TRENDING A BIT SLOWER...HAVE
ALSO TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERING
OFF FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED TO SEE IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWS
DOWN EVEN FURTHER.
AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THU NIGHT INTO FRI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE FALLING TO
MARGINAL LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/COLD FRONT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT
WITH PWATS ABOUT 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL AND STEERING FLOW NEARLY ALIGNED
WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE EXTENT OF
INTERACTION OF THE FRONT WITH A SUBTROPICAL PLUME STREAMING UP THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IF CLOSER TO THE COAST WOULD ENHANCE
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT COULD
PROLONG LIGHT TO MODERATE POST-FRONTAL STRATIFORM RAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
A DRYING NW FLOW SET UPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING.
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY...SHOWING IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AND VSBY GENERALLY
AROUND 17Z-21Z. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IMPROVEMENT...ESPECIALLY FOR CIGS...IS LOW. POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
TO STAY LIGHTER / MORE EASTERLY FOR A LONGER PERIOD THAN INDICATED
IN TAFS AS WELL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AT KSWF AND PERHAPS KHPN. MARINE LAYER
LIKELY TO KEEP TS AWAY FROM TERMINALS FARTHER SE.
IT COULD BE ANOTHER TRICKY NIGHT FORECASTING VFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS AT THE
OUTLYING TERMINALS...HOWEVER GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING AND JUST
HOW LOW CIGS AND VSBYS GET. WILL HOLD OFF IN LOWERING CONDITIONS
TOO MUCH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE
AT KGON.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN MUCH IMPROVEMENT AT
17Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CIGS. WINDS COULD STAY LIGHTER/MORE E FOR 1-2
HOURS LONGER THAN INDICATED IN TAF.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN MUCH IMPROVEMENT AT
17Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CIGS. WINDS COULD STAY LIGHTER/MORE E FOR 1-2
HOURS LONGER THAN INDICATED IN TAF.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN MUCH IMPROVEMENT AT
17Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CIGS. WINDS COULD STAY LIGHTER/MORE E FOR 1-2
HOURS LONGER THAN INDICATED IN TAF.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN MUCH IMPROVEMENT AT
17Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CIGS. WINDS COULD STAY LIGHTER FOR 1-2 HOURS
LONGER THAN INDICATED IN TAF.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN MUCH IMPROVEMENT AROUND
18-21Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CIGS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW POTENTIAL FOR CIGS/VSBY TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR OR HIGHER LEVELS AROUND 17-18Z. WIND SPEEDS MAY BE 1-2 HOURS
SLOWER TO INCREASE THAN SHOWN IN TAF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...RESIDUAL SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR. BECOMING VFR
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
BASED ON HRRR AND LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND WEB-CAMS HAVE
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES...NY
HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH 22Z. GIVEN
NO RESTRICTIONS OF 1NM OR LESS IN VISIBILITY EVIDENT ON SOUND OR
EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...HAVE CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THERE.
SEAS ARE NOT INCREASING AS FAST AS FORECAST...SO HAVE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD A FOOT OR SO ACROSS MOST OCEAN AREAS INTO THIS EVENING.
SEAS SLOWLY BUILD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING N TO SCA LEVELS AND
REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY. SW FLOW INCREASES OVER THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT AS WELL WITH SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING TO
NEAR THE LONG ISLAND COAST IF NOT FARTHER N.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL BELOW MARGINAL SCA LEVELS
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE
SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY
SWELLS. UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A FOOT DURING THIS TIME AS IT WAS
SLOWER BRINGING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THOUGH
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SEAS DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
THE MODELS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
TOTAL BASIN AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN TSTMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE
THU INTO FRIDAY MORNING...SHOULD PRODUCE AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338-345-
350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24/NV
NEAR TERM...24/MALOIT/NV
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...BC/PICCA
MARINE...24/MALOIT/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV
000
FXUS61 KOKX 221153
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
753 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST...THEN PASS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED TSTM CONTINUE TO SINK SE ACROSS LONG ISLAND ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SE THROUGH 10 AM. OTHERWISE...PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE MORNING WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY BURN OFF
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT JUMPS NORTH OF THE
REGION. CAMS INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPS WEST
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INTERIOR AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH
THE AREA.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST. WITH
HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE FOR THE START OF THIS PERIOD IS THE INTERACTION OF THE
EASTWARD MOVING CENTRAL US TROUGH WITH SEVERAL NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND A PERSISTENT EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH. THE
COMPLEX INTERACTION IS RESULTING IN TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION ISSUES
AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES TO THE EAST COAST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE FRI INTO SAT AS THE UPPER LOW NEGATIVELY TILTS
AND CLOSES OFF AS IT APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN INTO SAT. WITH
MAJORITY OF 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE TRENDING A BIT SLOWER...HAVE
ALSO TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH PCPN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FRI
AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED TO SEE IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN EVEN
FURTHER.
AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THU NIGHT INTO FRI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE FALLING TO
MARGINAL LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/COLD FRONT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT
WITH PWATS ABOUT 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL AND STEERING FLOW NEARLY ALIGNED
WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE EXTENT OF
INTERACTION OF THE FRONT WITH A SUBTROPICAL PLUME STREAMING UP THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IF CLOSER TO THE COAST WOULD ENHANCE
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT COULD
PROLONG LIGHT TO MODERATE POST-FRONTAL STRATIFORM RAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
A DRYING NW FLOW SET UPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA TERMINALS WILL LIFT NORTH LATER THIS
MORNING.
MOST OF THE AREA TERMINALS ARE MVFR TO IFR...WITH SOME SUB-IFR IN
SPOTS. VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS CIGS VARYING
FROM 300 FT TO 1500 FT ACROSS THE AREA AND VARIABLE WINDS ANYWHERE
FROM 6KT TO 15 KT. ALL THIS COURTESY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
OVER THE AREA TERMINALS. MOST OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EITHER LIFTING NORTH BETWEEN 15Z-16Z. ONCE THIS
OCCURS...WE SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
AROUND 10-14KT. UNTIL THEN HOWEVER...EXPECT A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z TODAY...MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NEW YORK TERMINALS...HOWEVER DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS.
IT COULD BE ANOTHER TRICKY NIGHT FORECASTING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS AT THE OUTLYING
TERMINALS...HOWEVER GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING AND JUST HOW LOW CIGS
AND VSBYS GET. WILL HOLD OFF IN LOWERING CONDITIONS TOO MUCH WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGON.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...RESIDUAL SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR. BECOMING VFR
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
E/SE WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME S-SW THIS AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS SLOWLY BUILD THIS AFTERNOON TO SCA
LEVELS AND REMAIN ABV SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL BELOW MARGINAL SCA LEVELS
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE
SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY
SWELLS. UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A FOOT DURING THIS TIME AS IT WAS
SLOWER BRINGING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THOUGH
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SEAS DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
THE MODELS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
TOTAL BASIN AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS IN TSTMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE
THU INTO FRIDAY MORNING...SHOULD PRODUCE AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KOKX 220902
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
502 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST...THEN PASS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONTINUING TO MONITOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVECTION APPEARS
OUTFLOW-DOMINATED WHICH SUGGESTS EVENTUAL WEAKENING.
OTHERWISE...SIMILAR DAY ON TAP TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND FOG
IN THE MORNING AND CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD
BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST. WITH
HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE FOR THE START OF THIS PERIOD IS THE INTERACTION OF THE
EASTWARD MOVING CENTRAL US TROUGH WITH SEVERAL NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND A PERSISTENT EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH. THE
COMPLEX INTERACTION IS RESULTING IN TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION ISSUES
AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES TO THE EAST COAST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE FRI INTO SAT AS THE UPPER LOW NEGATIVELY TILTS
AND CLOSES OFF AS IT APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN INTO SAT. WITH
MAJORITY OF 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE TRENDING A BIT SLOWER...HAVE
ALSO TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH PCPN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FRI
AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED TO SEE IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN EVEN
FURTHER.
AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THU NIGHT INTO FRI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE FALLING TO
MARGINAL LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/COLD FRONT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT
WITH PWATS ABOUT 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL AND STEERING FLOW NEARLY ALIGNED
WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE EXTENT OF
INTERACTION OF THE FRONT WITH A SUBTROPICAL PLUME STREAMING UP THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IF CLOSER TO THE COAST WOULD ENHANCE
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT COULD
PROLONG LIGHT TO MODERATE POST-FRONTAL STRATIFORM RAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
A DRYING NW FLOW SET UPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN LIFT TO THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING.
AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE LOWERING TO IFR AND COULD FALL AS LOW AS VLIFR AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z. WIND
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 10
TO 15 KT DURING WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE NEW YORK TERMINALS...HOWEVER DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG
AND STRATUS.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...RESIDUAL SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR. BECOMING VFR
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SE-E WINDS TODAY TO THE
ERN-MOST OCEAN WATERS...ALSO LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. OTHERWISE...S-SW SUB SCA WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS SLOWLY BUILD THIS AFTERNOON TO SCA
LEVELS AND REMAIN ABV SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL BELOW MARGINAL SCA LEVELS
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE
SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY
SWELLS. UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A FOOT DURING THIS TIME AS IT WAS
SLOWER BRINGING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THOUGH
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SEAS DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
THE MODELS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
TOTAL BASIN AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS IN TSTMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE
THU INTO FRIDAY MORNING...SHOULD PRODUCE AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-
340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KOKX 220546
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
146 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN
DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...THEN PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS.
ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS EXPANDING INTO ERN-MOST LONG ISLAND SOUND
AND NEARBY LAND AREAS. WILL CONTINUE WITH DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE
FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE CT...WITH PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE.
WATCHING LINE OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL NY STATE...WHICH THE RA
AND HRRR SUGGEST COULD MAKE A RIGHT TURN TOWARD THE CWA OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED MORNING. CONVECTION APPEARS OUTFLOW-DOMINATED
WHICH SUGGESTS EVENTUAL WEAKENING. HOWEVER...SINCE THAT OUTFLOW IS
SOMEWHAT ALIGNED WITH THE BULK 0-3 KM SHEAR...SOME REDEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR SW CT LATE
TONIGHT...SO HAVE CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ALL AREAS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
BACK DOOR FRONT ADVANCING WWD INTO SOUTHERN CT AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND WILL LEAD TO A COOLER NIGHT THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WITH
LOWER 55-60. IT WILL HOWEVER REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY OVER THE
HUDSON VALLEY...NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY WASH OUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...AND MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE...LESS THAN TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY TRANSLATES
EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND.
INTERACTION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
POLAR JET ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL AMPLIFY THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS AMPLIFICATION RESULTS IN
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE OPERATIONAL 12Z
GFS THE SLOWEST AT THE WESTERN END OF THE ENVELOPE. THE ECMWF AND
GGEM ARE THE QUICKEST WITH SWINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE COAST BY
FRI MORNING. IN FACT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BECOME MUCH SLOWER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE FRI INTO SAT AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT
MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN INTO SAT. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME WAS TO LEAN
TOWARD THE FASTER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH PCPN SHUTTING DOWN FRI
AFT. SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED TO
SEE IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN EVEN FURTHER.
AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
THU...PASSING ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI. HIGH PW
VALUES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WORK WEST TO EAST
DURING THIS TIME. THE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET DISPLACED EAST OF THE AREA AND
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORT
SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH GUSTY WINDS. WET-BULB ZERO VALUES ARE
WARM...SUPPORTING ONLY SMALL HAIL. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS FURTHER WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROF TO THE
WEST. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
A DRIER NW FLOW SET UPS FRI NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AVIATION FORECAST AS A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WHILE
FARTHER EAST THE FRONT WAS MOVING WESTWARD AS A COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO AROUND NEW YORK CITY BY MORNING BEFORE
MOVING BACK NORTH DURING THE MORNING.
STRATUS AND FOG HAS BEGUN TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AND WILL MOVE
INTO THE NYC AREA TERMINALS FROM 08Z TO 10Z. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES BECOME IFR AND AS LOW AS VLIFR AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS ESPECIALLY AFTER 07Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...13Z TO 15Z. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT AND CONDITIONS
UNCERTAIN. WIND WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT
THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT DURING WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE NEW YORK TERMINALS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG
AND STRATUS.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...RESIDUAL SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR. BECOMING VFR
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.
THIS ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND BACK WEST OVERNIGHT.
SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SE-E WINDS OVERNIGHT TO
THE ERN-MOST OCEAN WATERS...ALSO LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. OTHERWISE...S-SW SUB SCA WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH WED NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY BUILD ON WED...BUT HAVE
UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH TO PREVENT REACHING SCA CRITERIA UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THINKING WITH STRONG INVERSION THAT WIND FORCING
WAS OVERDONE IN THE WW3 FORECAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS COULD BE BELOW
SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAINING
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH SATURDAY MORNING. UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH BY A FOOT DURING THIS TIME AS IT WAS SLOWER BRINGING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE SEAS DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TO ENTER THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER WED WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD
BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS IN TSTMS.
A MORE ORGANIZED EVENT LATE THU INTO FRI SHOULD PRODUCE AVERAGE
BASIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ011-012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ079-081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340-
345-350-353.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KOKX 220432
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1232 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN
DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...THEN PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS.
ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS EXPANDING INTO ERN-MOST LONG ISLAND SOUND
AND NEARBY LAND AREAS. WILL CONTINUE WITH DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE
FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE CT...WITH PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE.
WATCHING LINE OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL NY STATE...WHICH THE RA
AND HRRR SUGGEST COULD MAKE A RIGHT TURN TOWARD THE CWA OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED MORNING. CONVECTION APPEARS OUTFLOW-DOMINATED
WHICH SUGGESTS EVENTUAL WEAKENING. HOWEVER...SINCE THAT OUTFLOW IS
SOMEWHAT ALIGNED WITH THE BULK 0-3 KM SHEAR...SOME REDEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR SW CT LATE
TONIGHT...SO HAVE CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ALL AREAS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
BACK DOOR FRONT ADVANCING WWD INTO SOUTHERN CT AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND WILL LEAD TO A COOLER NIGHT THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WITH
LOWER 55-60. IT WILL HOWEVER REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY OVER THE
HUDSON VALLEY...NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY WASH OUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...AND MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE...LESS THAN TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY TRANSLATES
EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND.
INTERACTION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
POLAR JET ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL AMPLIFY THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS AMPLIFICATION RESULTS IN
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE OPERATIONAL 12Z
GFS THE SLOWEST AT THE WESTERN END OF THE ENVELOPE. THE ECMWF AND
GGEM ARE THE QUICKEST WITH SWINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE COAST BY
FRI MORNING. IN FACT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BECOME MUCH SLOWER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE FRI INTO SAT AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT
MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN INTO SAT. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME WAS TO LEAN
TOWARD THE FASTER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH PCPN SHUTTING DOWN FRI
AFT. SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED TO
SEE IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN EVEN FURTHER.
AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
THU...PASSING ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI. HIGH PW
VALUES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WORK WEST TO EAST
DURING THIS TIME. THE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET DISPLACED EAST OF THE AREA AND
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORT
SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH GUSTY WINDS. WET-BULB ZERO VALUES ARE
WARM...SUPPORTING ONLY SMALL HAIL. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS FURTHER WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROF TO THE
WEST. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
A DRIER NW FLOW SET UPS FRI NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY WHILE FARTHER EAST THE FRONT WAS MOVING WESTWARD AS A COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO AROUND NEW YORK CITY BY MORNING
BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH DURING THE MORNING.
STRATUS AND FOG WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AND WILL MOVE
INTO THE NYC AREA TERMINALS FROM 08Z TO 10Z. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES BECOME IFR AND AS LOW AS VLIFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY AFTER 07Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...13Z TO 15Z. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT AND CONDITIONS
UNCERTAIN. WIND WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT DURING WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE NEW YORK TERMINALS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG
AND STRATUS.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...RESIDUAL SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR. BECOMING VFR
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.
THIS ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND BACK WEST OVERNIGHT.
SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SE-E WINDS OVERNIGHT TO
THE ERN-MOST OCEAN WATERS...ALSO LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. OTHERWISE...S-SW SUB SCA WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH WED NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY BUILD ON WED...BUT HAVE
UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH TO PREVENT REACHING SCA CRITERIA UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THINKING WITH STRONG INVERSION THAT WIND FORCING
WAS OVERDONE IN THE WW3 FORECAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS COULD BE BELOW
SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAINING
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH SATURDAY MORNING. UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH BY A FOOT DURING THIS TIME AS IT WAS SLOWER BRINGING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE SEAS DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TO ENTER THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER WED WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD
BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS IN TSTMS.
A MORE ORGANIZED EVENT LATE THU INTO FRI SHOULD PRODUCE AVERAGE
BASIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ011-012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ079-081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340-
345-350-353.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KOKX 220346
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1146 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN
DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...THEN PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS IS EXPANDING INTO ERN-MOST LONG ISLAND SOUND
AND NEARBY LAND AREAS. WILL HOLD THE COURSE WITH DENSE FOG ADVY
FOR THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE CT...WITH PATCHY
FOG ELSEWHERE.
WATCHING LINE OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL NY STATE...WHICH THE RA
AND HRRR SUGGEST COULD MAKE A RIGHT TURN TOWARD THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. CONVECTION APPEARS OUTFLOW-
DOMINATED WHICH SUGGESTS EVENTUAL WEAKENING. HOWEVER...SINCE THAT
OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT ALIGNED WITH THE BULK 0-3 KM SHEAR...SOME
REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR
SW CT LATE TONIGHT...SO HAVE CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ALL
AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
BACK DOOR FRONT ADVANCING WWD INTO SOUTHERN CT AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND WILL LEAD TO A COOLER NIGHT THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WITH
LOWER 55-60. IT WILL HOWEVER REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY OVER THE
HUDSON VALLEY...NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY WASH OUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...AND MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE...LESS THAN TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY TRANSLATES
EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND.
INTERACTION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
POLAR JET ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL AMPLIFY THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS AMPLIFICATION RESULTS IN
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE OPERATIONAL 12Z
GFS THE SLOWEST AT THE WESTERN END OF THE ENVELOPE. THE ECMWF AND
GGEM ARE THE QUICKEST WITH SWINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE COAST BY
FRI MORNING. IN FACT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BECOME MUCH SLOWER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE FRI INTO SAT AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT
MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN INTO SAT. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME WAS TO LEAN
TOWARD THE FASTER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH PCPN SHUTTING DOWN FRI
AFT. SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED TO
SEE IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN EVEN FURTHER.
AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
THU...PASSING ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI. HIGH PW
VALUES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WORK WEST TO EAST
DURING THIS TIME. THE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET DISPLACED EAST OF THE AREA AND
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORT
SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH GUSTY WINDS. WET-BULB ZERO VALUES ARE
WARM...SUPPORTING ONLY SMALL HAIL. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS FURTHER WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROF TO THE
WEST. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
A DRIER NW FLOW SET UPS FRI NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY WHILE FARTHER EAST THE FRONT WAS MOVING WESTWARD AS A COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO AROUND NEW YORK CITY BY MORNING
BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH DURING THE MORNING.
STRATUS AND FOG WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AND WILL MOVE
INTO THE NYC AREA TERMINALS FROM 08Z TO 10Z. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES BECOME IFR AND AS LOW AS VLIFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY AFTER 07Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...13Z TO 15Z. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT AND CONDITIONS
UNCERTAIN. WIND WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT DURING WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE NEW YORK TERMINALS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG
AND STRATUS.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...RESIDUAL SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR. BECOMING VFR
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.
THIS ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND BACK WEST OVERNIGHT.
SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SE-E WINDS OVERNIGHT TO
THE ERN-MOST OCEAN WATERS...ALSO LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. OTHERWISE...S-SW SUB SCA WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH WED NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY BUILD ON WED...BUT HAVE
UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH TO PREVENT REACHING SCA CRITERIA UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THINKING WITH STRONG INVERSION THAT WIND FORCING
WAS OVERDONE IN THE WW3 FORECAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS COULD BE BELOW
SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAINING
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH SATURDAY MORNING. UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH BY A FOOT DURING THIS TIME AS IT WAS SLOWER BRINGING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE SEAS DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TO ENTER THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER WED WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD
BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS IN TSTMS.
A MORE ORGANIZED EVENT LATE THU INTO FRI SHOULD PRODUCE AVERAGE
BASIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ011-012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ079.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-340.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-
353.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KOKX 220054
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
854 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF EASTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY. DENSE FOG ADVISORY THERE THROUGH 10 AM WED WILL BE
EXPANDED TO THE NORTH FORK OF LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE
CT...WHERE DENSE FOG SHOULD EXPAND OVERNIGHT. ALSO ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
KEPT LOW POP ACROSS SOUTHERN CT THIS EVENING FOR ANY CONVECTION
THAT MANAGES TO HOLD ON AS IT DROPS SE-WARD. OTHERWISE...ONLY AN
ISOLD SHOWER POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT OUT EAST.
WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH BLENDED MOS ACCEPTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST. MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE. CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...LESS THAN TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY TRANSLATES
EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND.
INTERACTION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
POLAR JET ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL AMPLIFY THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS AMPLIFICATION RESULTS IN
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE OPERATIONAL 12Z
GFS THE SLOWEST AT THE WESTERN END OF THE ENVELOPE. THE ECMWF AND
GGEM ARE THE QUICKEST WITH SWINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE COAST BY
FRI MORNING. IN FACT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BECOME MUCH SLOWER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE FRI INTO SAT AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT
MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN INTO SAT. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME WAS TO LEAN
TOWARD THE FASTER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH PCPN SHUTTING DOWN FRI
AFT. SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED TO
SEE IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN EVEN FURTHER.
AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
THU...PASSING ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI. HIGH PW
VALUES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WORK WEST TO EAST
DURING THIS TIME. THE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET DISPLACED EAST OF THE AREA AND
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORT
SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH GUSTY WINDS. WET-BULB ZERO VALUES ARE
WARM...SUPPORTING ONLY SMALL HAIL. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS FURTHER WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROF TO THE
WEST. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
A DRIER NW FLOW SET UPS FRI NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AFTER 03Z WITH
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BECOMING IFR AND AS LOW AS VLIFR AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS ESPECIALLY AFTER 07Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVE EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...13Z TO 15Z. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT AND CONDITIONS
UNCERTAIN. WIND WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT DURING WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE NEW YORK TERMINALS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 05Z...MAY BE AN
HOUR OR SO SOONER. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER 13Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 08Z...MAY BE AN
HOUR OR SO SOONER. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER 13Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 09Z...MAY BE AN
HOUR OR SO SOONER. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER 13Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 09Z...MAY BE AN
HOUR OR SO SOONER. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER 13Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...MAY BE AN
HOUR OR SO SOONER. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER 13Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 03Z...MAY BE AN
HOUR OR SO SOONER. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER 14Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG
AND STRATUS.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...RESIDUAL SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR. BECOMING VFR
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS...MAINLY NEAR SHORE...AND
THE EASTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY. THIS ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND BACK WEST OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH SOUTHWEST SUB SCA WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY BUILD WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH
TO PREVENT REACHING SCA CRITERIA UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THINKING
WITH STRONG INVERSION THAT WIND FORCING WAS OVERDONE IN THE WW3
FORECAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS COULD BE BELOW
SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAINING
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH SATURDAY MORNING. UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH BY A FOOT DURING THIS TIME AS IT WAS SLOWER BRINGING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE SEAS DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WED WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN
AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS IN TSTMS.
A MORE ORGANIZED EVENT LATE THU INTO FRI SHOULD PRODUCE AVERAGE
BASIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ011-012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ079.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-340.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-
353.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KOKX 212357
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
757 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY. DENSE FOG ADVISORY THERE THROUGH 10 AM WED...THOUGH THIS
WILL LIKELY NEED EXPANDING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. CONFIDENCE ON
THIS THOUGH IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT EXPANSION.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS NEAR 90 AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE...
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. THE LACK OF A TRIGGER AWAY FROM THE
FRONT HAS KEPT CONVECTION LIMITED. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS
EVENING AND KEPT IT CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR AS A RESULT. EVEN
THESE POPS MAY BE OVER DONE. WITH THE LACK OF MORE EXTENSIVE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SO FAR...HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF CONVECTION
THIS EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH BLENDED MOS ACCEPTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST. MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE. CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...LESS THAN TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY TRANSLATES
EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND.
INTERACTION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
POLAR JET ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL AMPLIFY THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS AMPLIFICATION RESULTS IN
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE OPERATIONAL 12Z
GFS THE SLOWEST AT THE WESTERN END OF THE ENVELOPE. THE ECMWF AND
GGEM ARE THE QUICKEST WITH SWINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE COAST BY
FRI MORNING. IN FACT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BECOME MUCH SLOWER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE FRI INTO SAT AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT
MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN INTO SAT. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME WAS TO LEAN
TOWARD THE FASTER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH PCPN SHUTTING DOWN FRI
AFT. SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED TO
SEE IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN EVEN FURTHER.
AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
THU...PASSING ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI. HIGH PW
VALUES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WORK WEST TO EAST
DURING THIS TIME. THE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET DISPLACED EAST OF THE AREA AND
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORT
SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH GUSTY WINDS. WET-BULB ZERO VALUES ARE
WARM...SUPPORTING ONLY SMALL HAIL. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS FURTHER WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROF TO THE
WEST. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
A DRIER NW FLOW SET UPS FRI NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AFTER 03Z WITH
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BECOMING IFR AND AS LOW AS VLIFR AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS ESPECIALLY AFTER 07Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVE EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...13Z TO 15Z. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT AND CONDITIONS
UNCERTAIN. WIND WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT DURING WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE NEW YORK TERMINALS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 05Z...MAY BE AN
HOUR OR SO SOONER. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER 13Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 08Z...MAY BE AN
HOUR OR SO SOONER. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER 13Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 09Z...MAY BE AN
HOUR OR SO SOONER. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER 13Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 09Z...MAY BE AN
HOUR OR SO SOONER. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER 13Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...MAY BE AN
HOUR OR SO SOONER. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER 13Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 03Z...MAY BE AN
HOUR OR SO SOONER. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER 14Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG
AND STRATUS.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...RESIDUAL SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR. BECOMING VFR
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS...MAINLY NEAR SHORE...AND
THE EASTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY. THIS ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND BACK WEST OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH SOUTHWEST SUB SCA WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY BUILD WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH
TO PREVENT REACHING SCA CRITERIA UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THINKING
WITH STRONG INVERSION THAT WIND FORCING WAS OVERDONE IN THE WW3
FORECAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS COULD BE BELOW
SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAINING
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH SATURDAY MORNING. UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH BY A FOOT DURING THIS TIME AS IT WAS SLOWER BRINGING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE SEAS DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCT TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THIS EVENING...MAINLY LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LARGE ENOUGH TO PRESENT A
FLOOD TREAT.
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WED WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN
AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS IN TSTMS.
A MORE ORGANIZED EVENT LATE THU INTO FRI SHOULD PRODUCE AVERAGE
BASIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-
353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...TONGUE/DW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/DW
000
FXUS61 KOKX 212048
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
448 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY. DENSE FOG ADVISORY THERE THROUGH 10 AM WED...THOUGH THIS
WILL LIKELY NEED EXPANDING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. CONFIDENCE ON
THIS THOUGH IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT EXPANSION.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS NEAR 90 AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE...
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. THE LACK OF A TRIGGER AWAY FROM THE
FRONT HAS KEPT CONVECTION LIMITED. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS
EVENING AND KEPT IT CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR AS A RESULT. EVEN
THESE POPS MAY BE OVER DONE. WITH THE LACK OF MORE EXTENSIVE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SO FAR...HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF CONVECTION
THIS EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH BLENDED MOS ACCEPTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST. MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE. CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...LESS THAN TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY TRANSLATES
EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND.
INTERACTION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
POLAR JET ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL AMPLIFY THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS AMPLIFICATION RESULTS IN
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE OPERATIONAL 12Z
GFS THE SLOWEST AT THE WESTERN END OF THE ENVELOPE. THE ECMWF AND
GGEM ARE THE QUICKEST WITH SWINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE COAST BY
FRI MORNING. IN FACT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BECOME MUCH SLOWER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE FRI INTO SAT AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT
MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN INTO SAT. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME WAS TO LEAN
TOWARD THE FASTER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH PCPN SHUTTING DOWN FRI
AFT. SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED TO
SEE IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN EVEN FURTHER.
AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
THU...PASSING ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI. HIGH PW
VALUES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WORK WEST TO EAST
DURING THIS TIME. THE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET DISPLACED EAST OF THE AREA AND
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORT
SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH GUSTY WINDS. WET-BULB ZERO VALUES ARE
WARM...SUPPORTING ONLY SMALL HAIL. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS FURTHER WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROF TO THE
WEST. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
A DRIER NW FLOW SET UPS FRI NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN N OF THE REGION THRU TNGT.
ISOLD-SCT TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVE...MAINLY N AND W OF THE
CITY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY TSTMS WHICH FORM ACROSS NERN NJ
TO SLOWLY TRACK ESE TOWARDS THE CITY AND WEAKEN. THERE COULD BE
SOME DIRECT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY KTEB IF THIS OCCURS.
OTHERWISE...VFR WITH SLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
IFR FOG SHOULD RETURN TNGT. ANY TSTMS COULD ALTER THE TIMING. LGT
SLY FLOW...VRB AT TIMES...CAN BE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE ON WED. THINK IFR MOST AREAS
TIL AT LEAST 14-17Z. POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR MVFR TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ALL DAY ON THE COASTS WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG MAY DEVELOP QUICKER THAN TAFS INDICATE
THIS EVE. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVE
ATTM.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ALTHOUGH TSTMS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN N OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVE...THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT A
WEAKENING TSTM COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW PROB OF TSTMS INVOF THE
TERMINAL THIS EVE. MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE
ARPT.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ALTHOUGH MOST TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N
OF THE ARPT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY INVOF THE ARPT
THIS AFTN AND EVE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ALTHOUGH MOST TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N
OF THE ARPT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY INVOF THE ARPT
THIS AFTN AND EVE.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: THE FOG MAY DEVELOP QUICKER THAN THE TAFS
INDICATE THIS EVE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED AFTN...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE COAST...VFR INTERIOR. SCT SHRA
AND TSTMS POSSIBLE.
.WED NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND
STRATUS.
.THU-FRI...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND
STRATUS.
.SAT...RESIDUAL SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR. BECOMING VFR
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.SUN...VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS...MAINLY NEAR SHORE...AND
THE EASTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY. THIS ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND BACK WEST OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH SOUTHWEST SUB SCA WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY BUILD WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH
TO PREVENT REACHING SCA CRITERIA UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THINKING
WITH STRONG INVERSION THAT WIND FORCING WAS OVERDONE IN THE WW3
FORECAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS COULD BE BELOW
SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAINING
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH SATURDAY MORNING. UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH BY A FOOT DURING THIS TIME AS IT WAS SLOWER BRINGING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE SEAS DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCT TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THIS EVENING...MAINLY LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LARGE ENOUGH TO PRESENT A
FLOOD TREAT.
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WED WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN
AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS IN TSTMS.
A MORE ORGANIZED EVENT LATE THU INTO FRI SHOULD PRODUCE AVERAGE
BASIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-
353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...TONGUE/DW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/DW
000
FXUS61 KOKX 212000
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
400 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY. DENSE FOG ADVISORY THERE THROUGH 10 AM...THOUGH THIS WILL
LIKELY NEED EXPANDING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. CONFIDENCE ON THIS
THOUGH IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT EXPANSION.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS NEAR 90 AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY
IS MAXIMIZED. THE LACK OF A TRIGGER AWAY FROM THE FRONT HAS KEPT
CONVECTION LIMITED. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND KEPT IT
CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR AS A RESULT. EVEN THESE POPS MAY BE OVER
DONE. WITH THE LACK OF MORE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE INITIATION SO FAR...HAVE
DROPPED MENTION OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH BLENDED MOS ACCEPTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST. MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE. CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...LESS THAN TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY TRANSLATES
EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND.
INTERACTION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
POLAR JET ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL AMPLIFY THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS AMPLIFICATION RESULTS IN
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE OPERATIONAL 12Z
GFS AT THE WESTERN END OF THE ENVELOPE. THE ECMWF AND GGEM ARE THE
QUICKEST WITH SWINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE COAST BY FRI MORNING.
IN FACT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BECOME MUCH SLOWER THAN THE ALL THE
GUIDANCE FRI INTO SAT AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF APPROACHING THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT MUCH CLOSER TO THE
COAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL
RAIN INTO SAT. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME WAS TO LEAN TOWARD THE
FASTER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH PCPN SHUTTING DOWN FRI AFT/EVE.
SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED TO SEE
IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN EVEN FURTHER.
AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
THU...PASSING ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI AFT. HIGH PW
VALUES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WORKS WEST TO EAST DURING
THIS TIME. THE ISOLATED THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET DISPLACED EAST OF THE AREA AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORT SOME BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS. WET-BULB ZERO VALUES ARE WARM SUPPORTING ONLY SMALL HAIL.
THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...
ESPECIALLY IF THE UPPER FLOW BACKS FURTHER WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THE UPPER TROF TO THE WEST. AVERAGE BASIS RAINFALL SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
A DRIER NW FLOW SET UPS FRI NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN N OF THE REGION THRU TNGT.
ISOLD-SCT TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVE...MAINLY N AND W OF THE
CITY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY TSTMS WHICH FORM ACROSS NERN NJ
TO SLOWLY TRACK ESE TOWARDS THE CITY AND WEAKEN. THERE COULD BE
SOME DIRECT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY KTEB IF THIS OCCURS.
OTHERWISE...VFR WITH SLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
IFR FOG SHOULD RETURN TNGT. ANY TSTMS COULD ALTER THE TIMING. LGT
SLY FLOW...VRB AT TIMES...CAN BE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE ON WED. THINK IFR MOST AREAS
TIL AT LEAST 14-17Z. POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR MVFR TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ALL DAY ON THE COASTS WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG MAY DEVELOP QUICKER THAN TAFS INDICATE
THIS EVE. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVE
ATTM.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ALTHOUGH TSTMS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN N OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVE...THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT A
WEAKENING TSTM COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW PROB OF TSTMS INVOF THE
TERMINAL THIS EVE. MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE
ARPT.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ALTHOUGH MOST TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N
OF THE ARPT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY INVOF THE ARPT
THIS AFTN AND EVE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ALTHOUGH MOST TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N
OF THE ARPT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY INVOF THE ARPT
THIS AFTN AND EVE.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: THE FOG MAY DEVELOP QUICKER THAN THE TAFS
INDICATE THIS EVE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED AFTN...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE COAST...VFR INTERIOR. SCT SHRA
AND TSTMS POSSIBLE.
.WED NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND
STRATUS.
.THU-FRI...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND
STRATUS.
.SAT...RESIDUAL SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR. BECOMING VFR
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.SUN...VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS...MAINLY NEAR SHORE...AND THE
EASTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY. THIS ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
BACK WEST OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH SOUTHWEST SUB SCA WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY BUILD WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH
TO PREVENT REACHING SCA CRITERIA UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THINKING
WITH STRONG INVERSION THAT WIND FORCING WAS OVERDONE IN THE WW3
FORECAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE ON SAT. WINDS COULD BE
BELOW SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
REMAINING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH SATURDAY MORNING.
UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH DURING THIS TIME AS IT WAS SLOWER BRINGING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
SEAS DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCT TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THIS EVENING...MAINLY LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LARGE ENOUGH TO PRESENT A
FLOOD TREAT.
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WED-THU WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN
AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS IN TSTMS.
AVERAGE BASIS RAINFALL SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AN INCH THU INTO
FRI...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-
353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...TONGUE/DW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE
000
FXUS61 KOKX 211743
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
143 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUFFOLK
COUNTY. DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM...THOUGH I EXPECT TO
EXTEND THIS AT 4 PM.
FULL SUN HEATING WELL UNDERWAY WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S
EXCEPT FOR THOSE REGIONS ALONG THE COAST (59 AT FIRE ISLAND IN THE
FOG AT LAST CHECK).
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY NOW OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH
OVER 3000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE WITH LI`S NEAR -8 C. EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION TO FIRE OVER THE CATSKILLS BY 2 PM AND THEN SINK
SOUTHWARD. FIRST STORM ON LAKE BREEZE BETWEEN SYR AND ROC HAD
GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL WITH IT. WITH LIMITED SHEAR...SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL IS LOW...BUT HAIL AND MORE POSSIBLY FLOODING COULD BE AN
ISSUE. FFG IS OVER 2 INCHES IN ONE HOUR...BUT SAW THE CAM`S
PRODUCING THESE AMOUNTS. WITH THE WEAK SHEAR AND PWAT`S NEAT 1.5
INCHES...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING DIMINISHES IN COVERAGE AS IS
SAGS SOUTH. MAIN ISSUE LATTER TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE MOIST.
LOWS WILL BE QUITE WARM...60S PER MOS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AS UPSTREAM TROUGH
FINALLY MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON
TAP. MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE. CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH ONLY WEAK TO
MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING TRIGGERING SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE BY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG
IT...KEEPING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL US AND BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN N OF THE REGION THRU TNGT.
ISOLD-SCT TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVE...MAINLY N AND W OF THE
CITY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY TSTMS WHICH FORM ACROSS NERN NJ
TO SLOWLY TRACK ESE TOWARDS THE CITY AND WEAKEN. THERE COULD BE
SOME DIRECT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY KTEB IF THIS OCCURS.
OTHERWISE...VFR WITH SLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
IFR FOG SHOULD RETURN TNGT. ANY TSTMS COULD ALTER THE TIMING. LGT
SLY FLOW...VRB AT TIMES...CAN BE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE ON WED. THINK IFR MOST AREAS
TIL AT LEAST 14-17Z. POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR MVFR TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ALL DAY ON THE COASTS WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG MAY DEVELOP QUICKER THAN TAFS INDICATE
THIS EVE. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVE
ATTM.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ALTHOUGH TSTMS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN N OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVE...THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT A
WEAKENING TSTM COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW PROB OF TSTMS INVOF THE
TERMINAL THIS EVE. MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE
ARPT.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ALTHOUGH MOST TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N
OF THE ARPT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY INVOF THE ARPT
THIS AFTN AND EVE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ALTHOUGH MOST TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N
OF THE ARPT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY INVOF THE ARPT
THIS AFTN AND EVE.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: THE FOG MAY DEVELOP QUICKER THAN THE TAFS
INDICATE THIS EVE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED AFTN...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE COAST...VFR INTERIOR. SCT SHRA
AND TSTMS POSSIBLE.
.WED NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND
STRATUS.
.THU-FRI...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND
STRATUS.
.SAT...RESIDUAL SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR. BECOMING VFR
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.SUN...VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR SHORE OCEAN AND GREAT SOUTH BAY.
THIS ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH. SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...1 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE
TODAY AND LIKELY TONIGHT.
LATEST WAVE WATCH III GUIDANCE FOR THE OCEAN WATERS SUGGEST 5 TO
6 FT SEAS BY WEDNESDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW AND POSSIBLE
SOUTHERLY SWELL. HOWEVER...WAVE WATCH HAS BEEN OVER FORECASTING
SEAS BY A FOOT OR TWO...SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS NOT
HIGH AT THIS TIME.
SEAS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH 25 KT
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE ON
LATE ON FRIDAY. WINDS COULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH SEAS REMAINING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCT TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WED-THU WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN
AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS IN TSTMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KOKX 211718
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
118 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUFFOLK
COUNTY. DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM...THOUGH I EXPECT TO
EXTEND THIS AT 4 PM.
FULL SUN HEATING WELL UNDERWAY WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S
EXCEPT FOR THOSE REGIONS ALONG THE COAST (59 AT FIRE ISLAND IN THE
FOG AT LAST CHECK).
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY NOW OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH
OVER 3000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE WITH LI`S NEAR -8 C. EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION TO FIRE OVER THE CATSKILLS BY 2 PM AND THEN SINK
SOUTHWARD. FIRST STORM ON LAKE BREEZE BETWEEN SYR AND ROC HAD
GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL WITH IT. WITH LIMITED SHEAR...SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL IS LOW...BUT HAIL AND MORE POSSIBLY FLOODING COULD BE AN
ISSUE. FFG IS OVER 2 INCHES IN ONE HOUR...BUT SAW THE CAM`S
PRODUCING THESE AMOUNTS. WITH THE WEAK SHEAR AND PWAT`S NEAT 1.5
INCHES...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING DIMINISHES IN COVERAGE AS IS
SAGS SOUTH. MAIN ISSUE LATTER TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE MOIST.
LOWS WILL BE QUITE WARM...60S PER MOS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AS UPSTREAM TROUGH
FINALLY MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON
TAP. MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE. CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH ONLY WEAK TO
MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING TRIGGERING SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE BY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG
IT...KEEPING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL US AND BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM W TO E THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. IT MAY SINK SLIGHTLY S BUT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE TERMINALS.
SLY FLOW TODAY WITH MAINLY VFR. VSBY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE KJFK-
KISP...HOWEVER THE NRN EDGE OF THE IFR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST S
OF THE TERMINALS ATTM.
AIRMASS WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTN AND EVE...ESPECIALLY N
AND W OF THE CITY. ISOLD-SCT TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
LOCATIONS FROM KBDR-KHPN-KSWF THE HIGHEST PROB OF BEING DIRECTLY
IMPACTED. ISOLD CELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE EXCEPT PERHAPS
LONG ISLAND.
SLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TNGT. POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD IFR
OR LOWER.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION. MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z WITH FOG RETURNING.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR HZ IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND
15-16Z. LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PERIODS OF MVFR HZ POSSIBLE TODAY. IFR MAY
COME IN MUCH EARLIER THAN TAFS INDICATE THIS EVE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE MORNING. SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE AFTN/EVE.
.WED NIGHT-FRI...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. AT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE WITH
STRATUS/FOG.
.SAT...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR SHORE OCEAN AND GREAT SOUTH BAY.
THIS ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH. SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...1 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE
TODAY AND LIKELY TONIGHT.
LATEST WAVE WATCH III GUIDANCE FOR THE OCEAN WATERS SUGGEST 5 TO
6 FT SEAS BY WEDNESDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW AND POSSIBLE
SOUTHERLY SWELL. HOWEVER...WAVE WATCH HAS BEEN OVER FORECASTING
SEAS BY A FOOT OR TWO...SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS NOT
HIGH AT THIS TIME.
SEAS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH 25 KT
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE ON
LATE ON FRIDAY. WINDS COULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH SEAS REMAINING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCT TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WED-THU WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN
AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS IN TSTMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KOKX 211501
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1101 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG/STRATUS HAS BURNED OFF IN ALL AREAS EXPECT THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LONG ISLAND WHERE ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON WEB CAMS SHOWING NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY...WE
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN NASSAU AND SUFFOLK
THROUGH 6 PM. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
EXTENDED THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES EARLY ALLOW FOR FULL SUN HEATING.
THUS...TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S EXCEPT FOR THOSE REGIONS ALONG THE
COAST.
THE HEATING RESULTS IN SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY THIS AFTN. LATEST NWP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WELL OVER 2000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE
WITH LI`S NEAR -8 C IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. SOME SREF SOUNDING ARE
OVER 3000 J/KG. THUS...FULLY EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION TO FIRE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH LATEST RUNS OF THE CAM`S - HRRR...SPC WRF AND NSSL
WRF.
WITH LIMITED SHEAR...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW. THINKING THOUGH
THAT FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE. FFG IS OVER 2 INCHES IN ONE
HOUR...BUT SEE THE CAM`S PRODUCING THESE AMOUNTS. WITH THE WEAK
SHEAR AND PWAT`S NEAT 1.5 INCHES...WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS. MAY
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH 1 PM UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING DIMINISHES IN COVERAGE AS IS
SAGS SOUTH. MAIN ISSUE LATTER TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE MOIST.
LOWS WILL BE QUITE WARM...60S PER MOS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AS UPSTREAM TROUGH
FINALLY MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON
TAP. MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE. ONCE AGAIN...CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH
WEAK TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING TRIGGERING SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE BY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG
IT...KEEPING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL US AND BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM W TO E THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. IT MAY SINK SLIGHTLY S BUT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE TERMINALS.
SLY FLOW TODAY WITH MAINLY VFR. VSBY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE KJFK-
KISP...HOWEVER THE NRN EDGE OF THE IFR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST S
OF THE TERMINALS ATTM.
AIRMASS WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTN AND EVE...ESPECIALLY N
AND W OF THE CITY. ISOLD-SCT TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
LOCATIONS FROM KBDR-KHPN-KSWF THE HIGHEST PROB OF BEING DIRECTLY
IMPACTED. ISOLD CELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE EXCEPT PERHAPS
LONG ISLAND.
SLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TNGT. POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD IFR
OR LOWER.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION. MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z WITH FOG RETURNING.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR HZ IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND
15-16Z. LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PERIODS OF MVFR HZ POSSIBLE TODAY. IFR MAY
COME IN MUCH EARLIER THAN TAFS INDICATE THIS EVE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE MORNING. SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE AFTN/EVE.
.WED NIGHT-FRI...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. AT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE WITH
STRATUS/FOG.
.SAT...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR SHORE OCEAN AND GREAT SOUTH BAY.
THIS ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH. SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...1 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE
TODAY AND LIKELY TONIGHT.
LATEST WAVE WATCH III GUIDANCE FOR THE OCEAN WATERS SUGGEST 5 TO
6 FT SEAS BY WEDNESDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW AND POSSIBLE
SOUTHERLY SWELL. HOWEVER...WAVE WATCH HAS BEEN OVER FORECASTING
SEAS BY A FOOT OR TWO...SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS NOT
HIGH AT THIS TIME.
SEAS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH 25 KT
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE ON
LATE ON FRIDAY. WINDS COULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH SEAS REMAINING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCT TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY TODAY...MAINLY INLAND. POSSIBLE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WITH UP TO 3 INCHES.
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WED-THU WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN
AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS IN TSTMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-081-
179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KOKX 211445
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1045 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG/STRATUS HAS BURNED OFF IN ALL AREAS EXPECT THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LONG ISLAND WHERE ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON WEB CAMS SHOWING NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY...WE
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN NASSAU AND SUFFOLK
THROUGH 6 PM. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
EXTENDED THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES EARLY ALLOW FOR FULL SUN HEATING.
THUS...TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S EXCEPT FOR THOSE REGIONS ALONG THE
COAST.
THE HEATING RESULTS IN SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY THIS AFTN. LATEST NWP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WELL OVER 2000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE
WITH LI`S NEAR -8 C IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. SOME SREF SOUNDING ARE
OVER 3000 J/KG. THUS...FULLY EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION TO FIRE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH LATEST RUNS OF THE CAM`S - HRRR...SPC WRF AND NSSL
WRF.
WITH LIMITED SHEAR...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW. THINKING THOUGH
THAT FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE. FFG IS OVER 2 INCHES IN ONE
HOUR...BUT SEE THE CAM`S PRODUCING THESE AMOUNTS. WITH THE WEAK
SHEAR AND PWAT`S NEAT 1.5 INCHES...WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS. MAY
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH 1 PM UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING DIMINISHES IN COVERAGE AS IS
SAGS SOUTH. MAIN ISSUE LATTER TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE MOIST.
LOWS WILL BE QUITE WARM...60S PER MOS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AS UPSTREAM TROUGH
FINALLY MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON
TAP. MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE. ONCE AGAIN...CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH
WEAK TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING TRIGGERING SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE BY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG
IT...KEEPING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL US AND BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM W TO E THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. IT MAY SINK SLIGHTLY S BUT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE TERMINALS.
STRATUS/FOG OVER THE TERMINALS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND BURN OFF
THIS MORNING. CONDS START OUT LIFR/IFR AND SHOULD LIFT BACK TO
VFR BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. VFR THEN EXPECTED INTO THE EVE BEFORE
FOG/STRATUS RETURNS.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG DOWN FROM THE NORTH WITH
A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY FIRE NEAR BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES...BUT THERE`S SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR S AND E TSTMS WILL MAKE IT BEFORE THE FIZZLE DUE
TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ONLY HAVE TEMPO AT KSWF LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVE FOR THIS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR IMPROVING CONDS THIS
MORNING. LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR IMPROVING CONDS THIS
MORNING. LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR IMPROVING CONDS THIS
MORNING. LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR IMPROVING CONDS THIS
MORNING. LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR IMPROVING CONDS THIS
MORNING. LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR IMPROVING CONDS
THIS MORNING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE MORNING. SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE AFTN/EVE.
.WED NIGHT-FRI...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. AT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE WITH
STRATUS/FOG.
.SAT...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR SHORE OCEAN AND GREAT SOUTH BAY.
THIS ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH. SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...1 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE
TODAY AND LIKELY TONIGHT.
LATEST WAVE WATCH III GUIDANCE FOR THE OCEAN WATERS SUGGEST 5 TO
6 FT SEAS BY WEDNESDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW AND POSSIBLE
SOUTHERLY SWELL. HOWEVER...WAVE WATCH HAS BEEN OVER FORECASTING
SEAS BY A FOOT OR TWO...SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS NOT
HIGH AT THIS TIME.
SEAS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH 25 KT
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE ON
LATE ON FRIDAY. WINDS COULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH SEAS REMAINING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCT TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY TODAY...MAINLY INLAND. POSSIBLE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WITH UP TO 3 INCHES.
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WED-THU WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN
AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS IN TSTMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ345-350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
| 
