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000
FXUS61 KOKX 010821
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
421 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY AND
FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE REINFORCED FROM TIME TO TIME
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND A VORTEX OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

THE FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN
NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING
ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A THERMAL/PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH DURING THE AFTN AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVE. NAM IS THE
MOST ROBUST WITH THE ACTIVITY...BUT THINK IT IS OVERDONE. HAVE
MAINTAINED SCHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SBCAPE BETWEEN
500-1000J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35-45KT COULD RESULT IN
A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN
14-16C. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...LOWER 90S IN THE NY/NJ METRO AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THESE VALUES DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTN.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH ANY SHRA/TSTM
ACTIVITY PUSHING E.

WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING
A FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AS THE SECOND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. SW FLOW AND THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING THE HUMIDITY BACK BRIEFLY. CHC POPS
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR MON AFTN/NIGHT. WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SIMILAR BULK SHEAR TO TODAY AND BETTER
UPPER SUPPORT THERE COULD BE A SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AROUND MAINLY N AND W OF NYC.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE EXIST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT
IT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA SOMETIME MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT
WITH A LOW CHC OF POPS PRECEDING IT ON TUE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY THIS MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NYC AREA
TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS IS TOO LOW...AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS START OFF LIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE AT KJFK. ANY GUSTS DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT.
SEAS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD TO 5 OR 6 FEET. WILL NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO THE SCA IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT UNTIL 4Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY NEED A FEW EXTRA
HOURS ADDED TO THE END TIME...HOWEVER WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-
EVALUATE THE NEW 12Z DATA.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN 4 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A
SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN
THE NEW WEEK...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS ON MONDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010821
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
421 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY AND
FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE REINFORCED FROM TIME TO TIME
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND A VORTEX OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

THE FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN
NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING
ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A THERMAL/PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH DURING THE AFTN AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVE. NAM IS THE
MOST ROBUST WITH THE ACTIVITY...BUT THINK IT IS OVERDONE. HAVE
MAINTAINED SCHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SBCAPE BETWEEN
500-1000J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35-45KT COULD RESULT IN
A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN
14-16C. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...LOWER 90S IN THE NY/NJ METRO AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THESE VALUES DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTN.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH ANY SHRA/TSTM
ACTIVITY PUSHING E.

WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING
A FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AS THE SECOND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. SW FLOW AND THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING THE HUMIDITY BACK BRIEFLY. CHC POPS
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR MON AFTN/NIGHT. WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SIMILAR BULK SHEAR TO TODAY AND BETTER
UPPER SUPPORT THERE COULD BE A SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AROUND MAINLY N AND W OF NYC.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE EXIST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT
IT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA SOMETIME MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT
WITH A LOW CHC OF POPS PRECEDING IT ON TUE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY THIS MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NYC AREA
TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS IS TOO LOW...AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS START OFF LIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE AT KJFK. ANY GUSTS DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT.
SEAS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD TO 5 OR 6 FEET. WILL NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO THE SCA IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT UNTIL 4Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY NEED A FEW EXTRA
HOURS ADDED TO THE END TIME...HOWEVER WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-
EVALUATE THE NEW 12Z DATA.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN 4 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A
SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN
THE NEW WEEK...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS ON MONDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 010551
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
151 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. DEW POINTS HAVE
BEGUN TO RISE BACK INTO THE 60S WHERE MIXING HAS ENDED.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS IN THE CITY AND PARTS OF NE NJ REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S. IT WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER FEW HOURS UNTIL DEW POINTS
BEGIN TO RISE THERE.

OTHERWISE...DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED
AND A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NYC METRO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NYC AREA TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND MORE
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY...AND SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE
AT KJFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 010551
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
151 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. DEW POINTS HAVE
BEGUN TO RISE BACK INTO THE 60S WHERE MIXING HAS ENDED.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS IN THE CITY AND PARTS OF NE NJ REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S. IT WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER FEW HOURS UNTIL DEW POINTS
BEGIN TO RISE THERE.

OTHERWISE...DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED
AND A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NYC METRO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NYC AREA TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND MORE
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY...AND SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE
AT KJFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010237
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1037 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. DEW POINTS HAVE
BEGUN TO RISE BACK INTO THE 60S WHERE MIXING HAS ENDED.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS IN THE CITY AND PARTS OF NE NJ REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S. IT WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER FEW HOURS UNTIL DEW POINTS
BEGIN TO RISE THERE.

OTHERWISE...DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED
AND A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NYC METRO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NYC AREA TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. WIND WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND MORE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY...AND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE AT KJFK.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010237
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1037 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. DEW POINTS HAVE
BEGUN TO RISE BACK INTO THE 60S WHERE MIXING HAS ENDED.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS IN THE CITY AND PARTS OF NE NJ REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S. IT WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER FEW HOURS UNTIL DEW POINTS
BEGIN TO RISE THERE.

OTHERWISE...DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED
AND A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NYC METRO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NYC AREA TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. WIND WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND MORE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY...AND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE AT KJFK.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010237
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1037 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. DEW POINTS HAVE
BEGUN TO RISE BACK INTO THE 60S WHERE MIXING HAS ENDED.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS IN THE CITY AND PARTS OF NE NJ REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S. IT WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER FEW HOURS UNTIL DEW POINTS
BEGIN TO RISE THERE.

OTHERWISE...DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED
AND A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NYC METRO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NYC AREA TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. WIND WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND MORE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY...AND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE AT KJFK.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 010136
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
936 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. DEW POINTS HAVE
BEGUN TO RISE BACK INTO THE 60S WHERE MIXING HAS ENDED.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS IN THE CITY AND PARTS OF NE NJ REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S. IT WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER FEW HOURS UNTIL DEW POINTS
BEGIN TO RISE THERE.

OTHERWISE...DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED
AND A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NYC METRO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NYC AREA TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. WIND WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND MORE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY. SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE AT KJFK.


   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 010136
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
936 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. DEW POINTS HAVE
BEGUN TO RISE BACK INTO THE 60S WHERE MIXING HAS ENDED.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS IN THE CITY AND PARTS OF NE NJ REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S. IT WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER FEW HOURS UNTIL DEW POINTS
BEGIN TO RISE THERE.

OTHERWISE...DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED
AND A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NYC METRO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NYC AREA TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. WIND WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND MORE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY. SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE AT KJFK.


   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 312307
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
707 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DECENT MIXING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH NW FLOW
HAS ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. AT
EWR...THE DEW POINT WAS 49 AT 22 UTC. THIS NW FLOW HAS BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH TO HOLD THE SEA BREEZE FROM MAKING MUCH PROGRESS FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING...DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER INTO
THE LOWER 60S. HAVE UPDATED THE DATABASE TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED
AND A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NYC METRO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NYC AREA TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. WIND WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND MORE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY. SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE AT KJFK.


   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 312307
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
707 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DECENT MIXING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH NW FLOW
HAS ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. AT
EWR...THE DEW POINT WAS 49 AT 22 UTC. THIS NW FLOW HAS BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH TO HOLD THE SEA BREEZE FROM MAKING MUCH PROGRESS FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING...DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER INTO
THE LOWER 60S. HAVE UPDATED THE DATABASE TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED
AND A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NYC METRO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NYC AREA TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. WIND WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND MORE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY. SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE AT KJFK.


   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 312238
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
638 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DECENT MIXING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH NW FLOW
HAS ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. AT
EWR...THE DEW POINT WAS 49 AT 22 UTC. THIS NW FLOW HAS BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH TO HOLD THE SEA BREEZE FROM MAKING MUCH PROGRESS FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING...DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER INTO
THE LOWER 60S. HAVE UPDATED THE DATABASE TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED
AND A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NYC METRO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT HANGS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR.

SEABREEZE FRONT...SOUTH OF KJFK...EXPECTED IT TO WORK NORTH
THROUGH JFK BY 20Z. SW FLOW SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT KBDR/KGON. SSW
SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE IT INTO KISP BY 21Z. ELSEWHERE...WSW WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND SETTLING TO THE
WSW. W/SW FLOW STRENGTHENS SAT MORNING.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN S SEABREEZE BETWEEN 20Z
AND 21Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC THROUGH EARLY EVE. LOW PROB OF SEABREEZE (AFT 22-23Z).

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC THROUGH EARLY EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SSW SEABREEZE EXPECTED BY 21-22Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT AFT...VFR. W WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. SW
WINDS LIKELY AT SOUTH COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH LOW PROB OF S
SEABREEZE. LOW PROB AND SPARSE AFT SHRA/TSRA THREAT FOR NYC/NJ
AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW...COASTAL SEABREEZE.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. FROPA WITH S WINDS...SHIFTING TO THE
W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 312238
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
638 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DECENT MIXING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH NW FLOW
HAS ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. AT
EWR...THE DEW POINT WAS 49 AT 22 UTC. THIS NW FLOW HAS BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH TO HOLD THE SEA BREEZE FROM MAKING MUCH PROGRESS FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING...DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER INTO
THE LOWER 60S. HAVE UPDATED THE DATABASE TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED
AND A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NYC METRO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT HANGS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR.

SEABREEZE FRONT...SOUTH OF KJFK...EXPECTED IT TO WORK NORTH
THROUGH JFK BY 20Z. SW FLOW SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT KBDR/KGON. SSW
SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE IT INTO KISP BY 21Z. ELSEWHERE...WSW WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND SETTLING TO THE
WSW. W/SW FLOW STRENGTHENS SAT MORNING.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN S SEABREEZE BETWEEN 20Z
AND 21Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC THROUGH EARLY EVE. LOW PROB OF SEABREEZE (AFT 22-23Z).

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC THROUGH EARLY EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SSW SEABREEZE EXPECTED BY 21-22Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT AFT...VFR. W WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. SW
WINDS LIKELY AT SOUTH COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH LOW PROB OF S
SEABREEZE. LOW PROB AND SPARSE AFT SHRA/TSRA THREAT FOR NYC/NJ
AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW...COASTAL SEABREEZE.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. FROPA WITH S WINDS...SHIFTING TO THE
W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 312238
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
638 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DECENT MIXING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH NW FLOW
HAS ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. AT
EWR...THE DEW POINT WAS 49 AT 22 UTC. THIS NW FLOW HAS BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH TO HOLD THE SEA BREEZE FROM MAKING MUCH PROGRESS FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING...DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER INTO
THE LOWER 60S. HAVE UPDATED THE DATABASE TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED
AND A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NYC METRO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT HANGS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR.

SEABREEZE FRONT...SOUTH OF KJFK...EXPECTED IT TO WORK NORTH
THROUGH JFK BY 20Z. SW FLOW SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT KBDR/KGON. SSW
SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE IT INTO KISP BY 21Z. ELSEWHERE...WSW WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND SETTLING TO THE
WSW. W/SW FLOW STRENGTHENS SAT MORNING.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN S SEABREEZE BETWEEN 20Z
AND 21Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC THROUGH EARLY EVE. LOW PROB OF SEABREEZE (AFT 22-23Z).

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC THROUGH EARLY EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SSW SEABREEZE EXPECTED BY 21-22Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT AFT...VFR. W WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. SW
WINDS LIKELY AT SOUTH COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH LOW PROB OF S
SEABREEZE. LOW PROB AND SPARSE AFT SHRA/TSRA THREAT FOR NYC/NJ
AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW...COASTAL SEABREEZE.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. FROPA WITH S WINDS...SHIFTING TO THE
W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 312238
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
638 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DECENT MIXING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH NW FLOW
HAS ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. AT
EWR...THE DEW POINT WAS 49 AT 22 UTC. THIS NW FLOW HAS BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH TO HOLD THE SEA BREEZE FROM MAKING MUCH PROGRESS FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING...DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER INTO
THE LOWER 60S. HAVE UPDATED THE DATABASE TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED
AND A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NYC METRO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT HANGS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR.

SEABREEZE FRONT...SOUTH OF KJFK...EXPECTED IT TO WORK NORTH
THROUGH JFK BY 20Z. SW FLOW SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT KBDR/KGON. SSW
SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE IT INTO KISP BY 21Z. ELSEWHERE...WSW WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND SETTLING TO THE
WSW. W/SW FLOW STRENGTHENS SAT MORNING.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN S SEABREEZE BETWEEN 20Z
AND 21Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC THROUGH EARLY EVE. LOW PROB OF SEABREEZE (AFT 22-23Z).

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC THROUGH EARLY EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SSW SEABREEZE EXPECTED BY 21-22Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT AFT...VFR. W WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. SW
WINDS LIKELY AT SOUTH COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH LOW PROB OF S
SEABREEZE. LOW PROB AND SPARSE AFT SHRA/TSRA THREAT FOR NYC/NJ
AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW...COASTAL SEABREEZE.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. FROPA WITH S WINDS...SHIFTING TO THE
W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311924
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
324 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT MOISTURE
UPSTREAM TO ADVECT EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. BELIEVE THE NAM IS OVERDOING CONVECTION
THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN PA AHEAD OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
PVA. AT MOST...AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD APPROACH EXTREME NW ZONES
LATE.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED AND A GENERAL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NYC METRO TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT HANGS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR.

SEABREEZE FRONT...SOUTH OF KJFK...EXPECTED IT TO WORK NORTH
THROUGH JFK BY 20Z. SW FLOW SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT KBDR/KGON. SSW
SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE IT INTO KISP BY 21Z. ELSEWHERE...WSW WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND SETTLING TO THE
WSW. W/SW FLOW STRENGTHENS SAT MORNING.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN S SEABREEZE BETWEEN 20Z
AND 21Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC THROUGH EARLY EVE. LOW PROB OF SEABREEZE (AFT 22-23Z).

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC THROUGH EARLY EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SSW SEABREEZE EXPECTED BY 21-22Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT AFT...VFR. W WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. SW
WINDS LIKELY AT SOUTH COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH LOW PROB OF S
SEABREEZE. LOW PROB AND SPARSE AFT SHRA/TSRA THREAT FOR NYC/NJ
AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW...COASTAL SEABREEZE.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. FROPA WITH S WINDS...SHIFTING TO THE
W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 311726
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS EARLY SATURDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS...OTHERWISE...NO OTHER REMARKABLE CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST
DATABASE.

DESPITE A NEGATIVE HEIGHT TENDENCY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL
PROMOTE DRIER CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY EXTENDS
ACROSS EASTERN CSTL SECTIONS AND MOST OF SRN CT.

AWAY FROM ANY ONSHORE WIND FLOW DUE TO SEA BREEZE...DEWPOINTS
HAVE FALLEN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...MAKING FOR LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE TEMPERATURES
HOWEVER...WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. THE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEAK HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR LESS CLOUDS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FOR THE FIRST
HALF...THEN SLIGHTLY SHIFTS AWAY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL TO START BUT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE DECREASING SUBSIDENCE. THIS FACTOR WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE
WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT IN ADDITION TO THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOWS FORECAST WILL BE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST REGION WITH THE
WARMER VALUES NEAR NYC AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND AS WELL AS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CONNECTICUT COAST.

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. A STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS WITH THE MARITIME INFLUENCE. STILL IT
WILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AND LOWER 90S FOR PARTS OF NYC AND URBAN NEW JERSEY. IN
ADDITION...THE HUMIDITY WILL BE BACK ON THE RISE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOME
MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT
WITHOUT MUCH COHERENCY BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS...WENT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR TIME BEING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF FROM CENTRAL CANADA SE INTO THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE NATION WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH
EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH ON WED AND LOOKS TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS.
FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

AT THE ONSET...TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE LOW SUNDAY...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP EARLY IN
THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF DRIER AIR FOR THE MID WEEK. TEMPS RETURN TO
NEARLY SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT HANGS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR.

WESTERLY WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT THROUGH THE AFTN FOR
CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. SEABREEZE FRONT IS STATIONARY JUST SOUTH
OF KJFK. STILL EXPECTING IT TO WORK NORTH THROUGH JFK AROUND
19-21Z. SW FLOW SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT KBDR/KGON. SSW MAY MAKE IT
TO KISP LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WEAKEN AND SETTLE TO WSW THIS
EVENING. W/SW FLOW STRENGTHENS SAT MORNING.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN S SEABREEZE BETWEEN
19Z AND 21Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC
AFTER 19-21Z. LOW PROB OF SEABREEZE (AFT 22-23Z).

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC
AFTER 18-20Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE POSSIBLE AFT 21-22Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT AFT...VFR. W WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. SW
WINDS LIKELY AT SOUTH COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH LOW PROB OF S
SEABREEZE. LOW PROB AND SPARSE AFT SHRA/TSRA THREAT FOR NYC/NJ
AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW...COASTAL SEABREEZE.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. FROPA WITH S WINDS...SHIFTING TO THE
W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
BELOW SCA THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS
AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. SCA WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS TIMEFRAME TO
WARRANT ANY ISSUANCE OF SCA AT THIS TIME.

THEREAFTER...A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE
WATERS OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN
SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW
FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/PW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JM/DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311726
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS EARLY SATURDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS...OTHERWISE...NO OTHER REMARKABLE CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST
DATABASE.

DESPITE A NEGATIVE HEIGHT TENDENCY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL
PROMOTE DRIER CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY EXTENDS
ACROSS EASTERN CSTL SECTIONS AND MOST OF SRN CT.

AWAY FROM ANY ONSHORE WIND FLOW DUE TO SEA BREEZE...DEWPOINTS
HAVE FALLEN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...MAKING FOR LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE TEMPERATURES
HOWEVER...WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. THE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEAK HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR LESS CLOUDS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FOR THE FIRST
HALF...THEN SLIGHTLY SHIFTS AWAY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL TO START BUT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE DECREASING SUBSIDENCE. THIS FACTOR WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE
WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT IN ADDITION TO THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOWS FORECAST WILL BE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST REGION WITH THE
WARMER VALUES NEAR NYC AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND AS WELL AS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CONNECTICUT COAST.

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. A STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS WITH THE MARITIME INFLUENCE. STILL IT
WILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AND LOWER 90S FOR PARTS OF NYC AND URBAN NEW JERSEY. IN
ADDITION...THE HUMIDITY WILL BE BACK ON THE RISE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOME
MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT
WITHOUT MUCH COHERENCY BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS...WENT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR TIME BEING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF FROM CENTRAL CANADA SE INTO THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE NATION WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH
EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH ON WED AND LOOKS TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS.
FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

AT THE ONSET...TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE LOW SUNDAY...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP EARLY IN
THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF DRIER AIR FOR THE MID WEEK. TEMPS RETURN TO
NEARLY SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT HANGS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR.

WESTERLY WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT THROUGH THE AFTN FOR
CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. SEABREEZE FRONT IS STATIONARY JUST SOUTH
OF KJFK. STILL EXPECTING IT TO WORK NORTH THROUGH JFK AROUND
19-21Z. SW FLOW SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT KBDR/KGON. SSW MAY MAKE IT
TO KISP LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WEAKEN AND SETTLE TO WSW THIS
EVENING. W/SW FLOW STRENGTHENS SAT MORNING.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN S SEABREEZE BETWEEN
19Z AND 21Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC
AFTER 19-21Z. LOW PROB OF SEABREEZE (AFT 22-23Z).

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC
AFTER 18-20Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE POSSIBLE AFT 21-22Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT AFT...VFR. W WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. SW
WINDS LIKELY AT SOUTH COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH LOW PROB OF S
SEABREEZE. LOW PROB AND SPARSE AFT SHRA/TSRA THREAT FOR NYC/NJ
AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW...COASTAL SEABREEZE.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. FROPA WITH S WINDS...SHIFTING TO THE
W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
BELOW SCA THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS
AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. SCA WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS TIMEFRAME TO
WARRANT ANY ISSUANCE OF SCA AT THIS TIME.

THEREAFTER...A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE
WATERS OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN
SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW
FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/PW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JM/DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 311726
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS EARLY SATURDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS...OTHERWISE...NO OTHER REMARKABLE CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST
DATABASE.

DESPITE A NEGATIVE HEIGHT TENDENCY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL
PROMOTE DRIER CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY EXTENDS
ACROSS EASTERN CSTL SECTIONS AND MOST OF SRN CT.

AWAY FROM ANY ONSHORE WIND FLOW DUE TO SEA BREEZE...DEWPOINTS
HAVE FALLEN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...MAKING FOR LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE TEMPERATURES
HOWEVER...WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. THE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEAK HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR LESS CLOUDS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FOR THE FIRST
HALF...THEN SLIGHTLY SHIFTS AWAY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL TO START BUT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE DECREASING SUBSIDENCE. THIS FACTOR WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE
WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT IN ADDITION TO THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOWS FORECAST WILL BE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST REGION WITH THE
WARMER VALUES NEAR NYC AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND AS WELL AS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CONNECTICUT COAST.

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. A STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS WITH THE MARITIME INFLUENCE. STILL IT
WILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AND LOWER 90S FOR PARTS OF NYC AND URBAN NEW JERSEY. IN
ADDITION...THE HUMIDITY WILL BE BACK ON THE RISE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOME
MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT
WITHOUT MUCH COHERENCY BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS...WENT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR TIME BEING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF FROM CENTRAL CANADA SE INTO THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE NATION WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH
EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH ON WED AND LOOKS TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS.
FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

AT THE ONSET...TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE LOW SUNDAY...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP EARLY IN
THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF DRIER AIR FOR THE MID WEEK. TEMPS RETURN TO
NEARLY SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT HANGS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR.

WESTERLY WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT THROUGH THE AFTN FOR
CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. SEABREEZE FRONT IS STATIONARY JUST SOUTH
OF KJFK. STILL EXPECTING IT TO WORK NORTH THROUGH JFK AROUND
19-21Z. SW FLOW SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT KBDR/KGON. SSW MAY MAKE IT
TO KISP LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WEAKEN AND SETTLE TO WSW THIS
EVENING. W/SW FLOW STRENGTHENS SAT MORNING.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN S SEABREEZE BETWEEN
19Z AND 21Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC
AFTER 19-21Z. LOW PROB OF SEABREEZE (AFT 22-23Z).

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC
AFTER 18-20Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE POSSIBLE AFT 21-22Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT AFT...VFR. W WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. SW
WINDS LIKELY AT SOUTH COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH LOW PROB OF S
SEABREEZE. LOW PROB AND SPARSE AFT SHRA/TSRA THREAT FOR NYC/NJ
AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW...COASTAL SEABREEZE.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. FROPA WITH S WINDS...SHIFTING TO THE
W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
BELOW SCA THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS
AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. SCA WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS TIMEFRAME TO
WARRANT ANY ISSUANCE OF SCA AT THIS TIME.

THEREAFTER...A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE
WATERS OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN
SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW
FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/PW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JM/DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 311726
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS EARLY SATURDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS...OTHERWISE...NO OTHER REMARKABLE CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST
DATABASE.

DESPITE A NEGATIVE HEIGHT TENDENCY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL
PROMOTE DRIER CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY EXTENDS
ACROSS EASTERN CSTL SECTIONS AND MOST OF SRN CT.

AWAY FROM ANY ONSHORE WIND FLOW DUE TO SEA BREEZE...DEWPOINTS
HAVE FALLEN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...MAKING FOR LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE TEMPERATURES
HOWEVER...WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. THE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEAK HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR LESS CLOUDS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FOR THE FIRST
HALF...THEN SLIGHTLY SHIFTS AWAY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL TO START BUT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE DECREASING SUBSIDENCE. THIS FACTOR WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE
WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT IN ADDITION TO THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOWS FORECAST WILL BE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST REGION WITH THE
WARMER VALUES NEAR NYC AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND AS WELL AS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CONNECTICUT COAST.

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. A STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS WITH THE MARITIME INFLUENCE. STILL IT
WILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AND LOWER 90S FOR PARTS OF NYC AND URBAN NEW JERSEY. IN
ADDITION...THE HUMIDITY WILL BE BACK ON THE RISE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOME
MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT
WITHOUT MUCH COHERENCY BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS...WENT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR TIME BEING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF FROM CENTRAL CANADA SE INTO THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE NATION WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH
EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH ON WED AND LOOKS TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS.
FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

AT THE ONSET...TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE LOW SUNDAY...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP EARLY IN
THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF DRIER AIR FOR THE MID WEEK. TEMPS RETURN TO
NEARLY SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT HANGS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR.

WESTERLY WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT THROUGH THE AFTN FOR
CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. SEABREEZE FRONT IS STATIONARY JUST SOUTH
OF KJFK. STILL EXPECTING IT TO WORK NORTH THROUGH JFK AROUND
19-21Z. SW FLOW SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT KBDR/KGON. SSW MAY MAKE IT
TO KISP LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WEAKEN AND SETTLE TO WSW THIS
EVENING. W/SW FLOW STRENGTHENS SAT MORNING.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN S SEABREEZE BETWEEN
19Z AND 21Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC
AFTER 19-21Z. LOW PROB OF SEABREEZE (AFT 22-23Z).

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC
AFTER 18-20Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE POSSIBLE AFT 21-22Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT AFT...VFR. W WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. SW
WINDS LIKELY AT SOUTH COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH LOW PROB OF S
SEABREEZE. LOW PROB AND SPARSE AFT SHRA/TSRA THREAT FOR NYC/NJ
AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW...COASTAL SEABREEZE.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. FROPA WITH S WINDS...SHIFTING TO THE
W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
BELOW SCA THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS
AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. SCA WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS TIMEFRAME TO
WARRANT ANY ISSUANCE OF SCA AT THIS TIME.

THEREAFTER...A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE
WATERS OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN
SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW
FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/PW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JM/DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311401
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1001 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS EARLY SATURDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
REMARKABLE CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST DATABASE.

DESPITE A NEGATIVE HEIGHT TENDENCY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL
PROMOTE DRIER CONDITIONS. QUICK DIURNAL WARMING UNDERWAY.

THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER DURING THE TIME OF MAX HEATING...IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...MAKING FOR LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS. THE TEMPERATURES HOWEVER...WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90. THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEAK HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR
LESS CLOUDS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FOR THE FIRST
HALF...THEN SLIGHTLY SHIFTS AWAY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL TO START BUT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE DECREASING SUBSIDENCE. THIS FACTOR WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE
WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT IN ADDITION TO THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOWS FORECAST WILL BE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST REGION WITH THE
WARMER VALUES NEAR NYC AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND AS WELL AS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CONNECTICUT COAST.

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. A STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS WITH THE MARITIME INFLUENCE. STILL IT
WILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AND LOWER 90S FOR PARTS OF NYC AND URBAN NEW JERSEY. IN
ADDITION...THE HUMIDITY WILL BE BACK ON THE RISE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOME
MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT
WITHOUT MUCH COHERENCY BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS...WENT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR TIME BEING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF FROM CENTRAL CANADA SE INTO THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE NATION WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH
EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH ON WED AND LOOKS TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS.
FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

AT THE ONSET...TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE LOW SUNDAY...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP EARLY IN
THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF DRIER AIR FOR THE MID WEEK. TEMPS RETURN TO
NEARLY SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS THIS AFTN RESULTING IN BACKING OF
NW WINDS TO THE W. GUSTS UP TO 20KT IN THE AFTN...MAINLY CITY/COASTAL
TERMINALS.

LATE DAY SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AT KJFK AS SYNOPTIC FLOW
IN THE LOWEST 4K FT WILL BE AROUND 10KT THROUGH THE AFTN THEN
WEAKEN DURING THE EVE. SW FLOW SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT KBDR/KGON.
LOW PROBABILITY OF S SEABREEZE IT MAKING IT TO KISP...BUT SW FLOW
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE LEFT OF 310 COULD BE +/-
1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE BETWEEN
19Z AND 21Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE LEFT OF 310 COULD BE +/-
1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. LOW PROB OF SEABREEZE(AFT 22-23Z).

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: EQUAL CHANCES OF WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF 310
MAGNETIC THIS MORNING. TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE LEFT OF 310
COULD BE 1-2 HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE W COULD BE
+/- 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE W COULD BE
+/- 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE W COULD BE
+/- 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. SEABREEZE POSSIBLE AFT 20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.SAT-SUN...VFR.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
BELOW SCA THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS
AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. SCA WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS TIMEFRAME TO
WARRANT ANY ISSUANCE OF SCA AT THIS TIME.

THEREAFTER...A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE
WATERS OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN
SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW
FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/PW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...24/NV
MARINE...JM/DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 311401
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1001 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS EARLY SATURDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
REMARKABLE CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST DATABASE.

DESPITE A NEGATIVE HEIGHT TENDENCY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL
PROMOTE DRIER CONDITIONS. QUICK DIURNAL WARMING UNDERWAY.

THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER DURING THE TIME OF MAX HEATING...IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...MAKING FOR LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS. THE TEMPERATURES HOWEVER...WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90. THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEAK HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR
LESS CLOUDS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FOR THE FIRST
HALF...THEN SLIGHTLY SHIFTS AWAY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL TO START BUT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE DECREASING SUBSIDENCE. THIS FACTOR WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE
WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT IN ADDITION TO THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOWS FORECAST WILL BE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST REGION WITH THE
WARMER VALUES NEAR NYC AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND AS WELL AS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CONNECTICUT COAST.

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. A STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS WITH THE MARITIME INFLUENCE. STILL IT
WILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AND LOWER 90S FOR PARTS OF NYC AND URBAN NEW JERSEY. IN
ADDITION...THE HUMIDITY WILL BE BACK ON THE RISE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOME
MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT
WITHOUT MUCH COHERENCY BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS...WENT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR TIME BEING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF FROM CENTRAL CANADA SE INTO THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE NATION WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH
EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH ON WED AND LOOKS TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS.
FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

AT THE ONSET...TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE LOW SUNDAY...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP EARLY IN
THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF DRIER AIR FOR THE MID WEEK. TEMPS RETURN TO
NEARLY SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS THIS AFTN RESULTING IN BACKING OF
NW WINDS TO THE W. GUSTS UP TO 20KT IN THE AFTN...MAINLY CITY/COASTAL
TERMINALS.

LATE DAY SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AT KJFK AS SYNOPTIC FLOW
IN THE LOWEST 4K FT WILL BE AROUND 10KT THROUGH THE AFTN THEN
WEAKEN DURING THE EVE. SW FLOW SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT KBDR/KGON.
LOW PROBABILITY OF S SEABREEZE IT MAKING IT TO KISP...BUT SW FLOW
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE LEFT OF 310 COULD BE +/-
1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE BETWEEN
19Z AND 21Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE LEFT OF 310 COULD BE +/-
1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. LOW PROB OF SEABREEZE(AFT 22-23Z).

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: EQUAL CHANCES OF WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF 310
MAGNETIC THIS MORNING. TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE LEFT OF 310
COULD BE 1-2 HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE W COULD BE
+/- 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE W COULD BE
+/- 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE W COULD BE
+/- 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. SEABREEZE POSSIBLE AFT 20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.SAT-SUN...VFR.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
BELOW SCA THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS
AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. SCA WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS TIMEFRAME TO
WARRANT ANY ISSUANCE OF SCA AT THIS TIME.

THEREAFTER...A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE
WATERS OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN
SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW
FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/PW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...24/NV
MARINE...JM/DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311123
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
723 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS EARLY SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA OVER
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. INCREASED TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE AND
WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS...LOWERED DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER REMARKABLE CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST DATABASE.

DESPITE A NEGATIVE HEIGHT TENDENCY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL
PROMOTE DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY. EXPECTING A QUICK DIURNAL WARMING
WITH ANY PATCHY FOG DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING.

THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE REMARKABLY LOWER...IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...MAKING FOR LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE
TEMPERATURES HOWEVER...WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEAK HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR LESS CLOUDS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FOR THE FIRST
HALF...THEN SLIGHTLY SHIFTS AWAY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL TO START BUT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE DECREASING SUBSIDENCE. THIS FACTOR WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE
WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT IN ADDITION TO THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOWS FORECAST WILL BE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST REGION WITH THE
WARMER VALUES NEAR NYC AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND AS WELL AS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CONNECTICUT COAST.

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. A STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS WITH THE MARITIME INFLUENCE. STILL IT
WILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AND LOWER 90S FOR PARTS OF NYC AND URBAN NEW JERSEY. IN
ADDITION...THE HUMIDITY WILL BE BACK ON THE RISE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOME
MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT
WITHOUT MUCH COHERENCY BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS...WENT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR TIME BEING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF FROM CENTRAL CANADA SE INTO THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE NATION WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH
EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH ON WED AND LOOKS TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS.
FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

AT THE ONSET...TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE LOW SUNDAY...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP EARLY IN
THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF DRIER AIR FOR THE MID WEEK. TEMPS RETURN TO
NEARLY SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS JUST PUSHED E OF THE LOCAL AREA. PATCHY MVFR FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AT KGON...WITH VFR ALL TERMINALS THEREAFTER.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT (LESS THAN 10KT) UNTIL MID MORNING OR SO.
A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN RESULTING IN BACKING
OF WINDS TO THE W. GUSTS UP TO 20KT IN THE AFTN...MAINLY COASTAL
TERMINALS.

SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS TRICKY BUT HAVE DECIDED TO ADD IT
TO KJFK A FEW HOURS LATER THAN NORMAL. SYNOPTIC FLOW IN THE LOWEST
4K FT WILL BE AROUND 10KT THROUGH THE AFTN THEN WEAKEN DURING THE
EVE. ALSO KEPT IT IN AT KBDR AND HAVE HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY
AT KGON FOR NOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE LEFT OF 310 COULD BE +/-
1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE ALTHOUGH
TIMING COULD BE ALSO BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE LEFT OF 310 COULD BE +/-
1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. SEABREEZE POSSIBLE LATE (AFT 22Z).

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: EQUAL CHANCES OF WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF 310
MAGNETIC THIS MORNING. TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE LEFT OF 310
COULD BE 1-2 HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE W COULD BE
+/- 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE W COULD BE
+/- 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE W COULD BE
+/- 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. SEABREEZE POSSIBLE AFT 20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.SAT-SUN...VFR.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH THE DIURNAL WARMING.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
BELOW SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE REGION. SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS TIMEFRAME TO WARRANT ANY ISSUANCE OF SCA AT
THIS TIME.

THEREAFTER...A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE
WATERS OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN
SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW
FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311123
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
723 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS EARLY SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA OVER
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. INCREASED TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE AND
WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS...LOWERED DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER REMARKABLE CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST DATABASE.

DESPITE A NEGATIVE HEIGHT TENDENCY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL
PROMOTE DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY. EXPECTING A QUICK DIURNAL WARMING
WITH ANY PATCHY FOG DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING.

THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE REMARKABLY LOWER...IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...MAKING FOR LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE
TEMPERATURES HOWEVER...WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEAK HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR LESS CLOUDS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FOR THE FIRST
HALF...THEN SLIGHTLY SHIFTS AWAY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL TO START BUT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE DECREASING SUBSIDENCE. THIS FACTOR WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE
WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT IN ADDITION TO THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOWS FORECAST WILL BE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST REGION WITH THE
WARMER VALUES NEAR NYC AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND AS WELL AS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CONNECTICUT COAST.

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. A STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS WITH THE MARITIME INFLUENCE. STILL IT
WILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AND LOWER 90S FOR PARTS OF NYC AND URBAN NEW JERSEY. IN
ADDITION...THE HUMIDITY WILL BE BACK ON THE RISE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOME
MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT
WITHOUT MUCH COHERENCY BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS...WENT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR TIME BEING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF FROM CENTRAL CANADA SE INTO THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE NATION WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH
EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH ON WED AND LOOKS TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS.
FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

AT THE ONSET...TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE LOW SUNDAY...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP EARLY IN
THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF DRIER AIR FOR THE MID WEEK. TEMPS RETURN TO
NEARLY SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS JUST PUSHED E OF THE LOCAL AREA. PATCHY MVFR FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AT KGON...WITH VFR ALL TERMINALS THEREAFTER.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT (LESS THAN 10KT) UNTIL MID MORNING OR SO.
A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN RESULTING IN BACKING
OF WINDS TO THE W. GUSTS UP TO 20KT IN THE AFTN...MAINLY COASTAL
TERMINALS.

SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS TRICKY BUT HAVE DECIDED TO ADD IT
TO KJFK A FEW HOURS LATER THAN NORMAL. SYNOPTIC FLOW IN THE LOWEST
4K FT WILL BE AROUND 10KT THROUGH THE AFTN THEN WEAKEN DURING THE
EVE. ALSO KEPT IT IN AT KBDR AND HAVE HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY
AT KGON FOR NOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE LEFT OF 310 COULD BE +/-
1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE ALTHOUGH
TIMING COULD BE ALSO BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE LEFT OF 310 COULD BE +/-
1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. SEABREEZE POSSIBLE LATE (AFT 22Z).

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: EQUAL CHANCES OF WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF 310
MAGNETIC THIS MORNING. TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE LEFT OF 310
COULD BE 1-2 HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE W COULD BE
+/- 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE W COULD BE
+/- 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE W COULD BE
+/- 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. SEABREEZE POSSIBLE AFT 20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.SAT-SUN...VFR.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH THE DIURNAL WARMING.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
BELOW SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE REGION. SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS TIMEFRAME TO WARRANT ANY ISSUANCE OF SCA AT
THIS TIME.

THEREAFTER...A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE
WATERS OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN
SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW
FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 310822
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
422 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS EARLY SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA OVER
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE A NEGATIVE HEIGHT TENDENCY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL
PROMOTE DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY. EXPECTING A QUICK DIURNAL WARMING
AS ANY PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES LATER ON THIS MORNING.

THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE REMARKABLY LOWER...IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...MAKING FOR LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE
TEMPERATURES HOWEVER...WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEAK HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR LESS CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FOR THE FIRST
HALF...THEN SLIGHTLY SHIFTS AWAY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL TO START BUT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE DECREASING SUBSIDENCE. THIS FACTOR WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE
WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT IN ADDITION TO THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOWS FORECAST WILL BE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST REGION WITH THE
WARMER VALUES NEAR NYC AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND AS WELL AS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CONNECTICUT COAST.

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. A STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS WITH THE MARITIME INFLUENCE. STILL IT
WILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AND LOWER 90S FOR PARTS OF NYC AND URBAN NEW JERSEY. IN
ADDITION...THE HUMIDITY WILL BE BACK ON THE RISE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOME
MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT
WITHOUT MUCH COHERENCY BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS...WENT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR TIME BEING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF FROM CENTRAL CANADA SE INTO THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE NATION WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH
EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH ON WED AND LOOKS TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS.
FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

AT THE ONSET...TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE LOW SUNDAY...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP EARLY IN
THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF DRIER AIR FOR THE MID WEEK. TEMPS RETURN TO
NEARLY SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA...AND SHOULD BE
E OF ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 10-12Z. PATCHY MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
CONDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME...OUTSIDE OF THE METRO WITH
MINIMAL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. VFR THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT (LESS THAN 10KT) UNTIL MID MORNING OR SO. A SFC TROUGH
DEVELOPS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN RESULTING IN BACKING OF WINDS TO
THE W. GUSTS UP TO 20KT IN THE AFTN...MAINLY COASTAL TERMINALS.

SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY ATTM WITH A DECENT
SYNOPTIC FLOW. GUIDANCE WAS TOO WEAK WITH WINDS ALOFT YESTERDAY
AND IF THAT IS THE CASE AGAIN TODAY...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO
DEVELOP. HAVE INCLUDED IT AT KBDR AND HAVE HINTED AT THE
POSSIBILITY AT KJFK/KGON FOR NOW.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE LEFT OF 310 COULD BE 1-2
HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST. SEABREEZE POSSIBLE AFT 18Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE LEFT OF 310 COULD BE 1-2
HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST. SEABREEZE POSSIBLE LATE (AFT 22Z).

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE LEFT OF 310 COULD BE 1-2
HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE W COULD BE
1-2 HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE W COULD BE
1-2 HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE W COULD BE
1-2 HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST. SEABREEZE POSSIBLE AFT 20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SUN...VFR.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
BELOW SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE REGION. SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS TIMEFRAME TO WARRANT ANY ISSUANCE OF SCA AT
THIS TIME.

THEREAFTER...A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE
WATERS OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN
SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW
FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 310822
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
422 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS EARLY SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA OVER
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE A NEGATIVE HEIGHT TENDENCY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL
PROMOTE DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY. EXPECTING A QUICK DIURNAL WARMING
AS ANY PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES LATER ON THIS MORNING.

THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE REMARKABLY LOWER...IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...MAKING FOR LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE
TEMPERATURES HOWEVER...WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEAK HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR LESS CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FOR THE FIRST
HALF...THEN SLIGHTLY SHIFTS AWAY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL TO START BUT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE DECREASING SUBSIDENCE. THIS FACTOR WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE
WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT IN ADDITION TO THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOWS FORECAST WILL BE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST REGION WITH THE
WARMER VALUES NEAR NYC AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND AS WELL AS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CONNECTICUT COAST.

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. A STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS WITH THE MARITIME INFLUENCE. STILL IT
WILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AND LOWER 90S FOR PARTS OF NYC AND URBAN NEW JERSEY. IN
ADDITION...THE HUMIDITY WILL BE BACK ON THE RISE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOME
MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT
WITHOUT MUCH COHERENCY BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS...WENT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR TIME BEING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF FROM CENTRAL CANADA SE INTO THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE NATION WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH
EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH ON WED AND LOOKS TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS.
FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

AT THE ONSET...TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE LOW SUNDAY...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP EARLY IN
THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF DRIER AIR FOR THE MID WEEK. TEMPS RETURN TO
NEARLY SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA...AND SHOULD BE
E OF ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 10-12Z. PATCHY MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
CONDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME...OUTSIDE OF THE METRO WITH
MINIMAL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. VFR THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT (LESS THAN 10KT) UNTIL MID MORNING OR SO. A SFC TROUGH
DEVELOPS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN RESULTING IN BACKING OF WINDS TO
THE W. GUSTS UP TO 20KT IN THE AFTN...MAINLY COASTAL TERMINALS.

SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY ATTM WITH A DECENT
SYNOPTIC FLOW. GUIDANCE WAS TOO WEAK WITH WINDS ALOFT YESTERDAY
AND IF THAT IS THE CASE AGAIN TODAY...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO
DEVELOP. HAVE INCLUDED IT AT KBDR AND HAVE HINTED AT THE
POSSIBILITY AT KJFK/KGON FOR NOW.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE LEFT OF 310 COULD BE 1-2
HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST. SEABREEZE POSSIBLE AFT 18Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE LEFT OF 310 COULD BE 1-2
HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST. SEABREEZE POSSIBLE LATE (AFT 22Z).

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE LEFT OF 310 COULD BE 1-2
HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE W COULD BE
1-2 HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE W COULD BE
1-2 HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE W COULD BE
1-2 HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST. SEABREEZE POSSIBLE AFT 20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SUN...VFR.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
BELOW SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE REGION. SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS TIMEFRAME TO WARRANT ANY ISSUANCE OF SCA AT
THIS TIME.

THEREAFTER...A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE
WATERS OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN
SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW
FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 310822
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
422 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS EARLY SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA OVER
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE A NEGATIVE HEIGHT TENDENCY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL
PROMOTE DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY. EXPECTING A QUICK DIURNAL WARMING
AS ANY PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES LATER ON THIS MORNING.

THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE REMARKABLY LOWER...IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...MAKING FOR LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE
TEMPERATURES HOWEVER...WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEAK HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR LESS CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FOR THE FIRST
HALF...THEN SLIGHTLY SHIFTS AWAY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL TO START BUT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE DECREASING SUBSIDENCE. THIS FACTOR WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE
WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT IN ADDITION TO THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOWS FORECAST WILL BE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST REGION WITH THE
WARMER VALUES NEAR NYC AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND AS WELL AS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CONNECTICUT COAST.

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. A STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS WITH THE MARITIME INFLUENCE. STILL IT
WILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AND LOWER 90S FOR PARTS OF NYC AND URBAN NEW JERSEY. IN
ADDITION...THE HUMIDITY WILL BE BACK ON THE RISE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOME
MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT
WITHOUT MUCH COHERENCY BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS...WENT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR TIME BEING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF FROM CENTRAL CANADA SE INTO THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE NATION WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH
EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH ON WED AND LOOKS TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS.
FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

AT THE ONSET...TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE LOW SUNDAY...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP EARLY IN
THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF DRIER AIR FOR THE MID WEEK. TEMPS RETURN TO
NEARLY SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA...AND SHOULD BE
E OF ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 10-12Z. PATCHY MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
CONDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME...OUTSIDE OF THE METRO WITH
MINIMAL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. VFR THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT (LESS THAN 10KT) UNTIL MID MORNING OR SO. A SFC TROUGH
DEVELOPS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN RESULTING IN BACKING OF WINDS TO
THE W. GUSTS UP TO 20KT IN THE AFTN...MAINLY COASTAL TERMINALS.

SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY ATTM WITH A DECENT
SYNOPTIC FLOW. GUIDANCE WAS TOO WEAK WITH WINDS ALOFT YESTERDAY
AND IF THAT IS THE CASE AGAIN TODAY...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO
DEVELOP. HAVE INCLUDED IT AT KBDR AND HAVE HINTED AT THE
POSSIBILITY AT KJFK/KGON FOR NOW.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE LEFT OF 310 COULD BE 1-2
HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST. SEABREEZE POSSIBLE AFT 18Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE LEFT OF 310 COULD BE 1-2
HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST. SEABREEZE POSSIBLE LATE (AFT 22Z).

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE LEFT OF 310 COULD BE 1-2
HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE W COULD BE
1-2 HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE W COULD BE
1-2 HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE W COULD BE
1-2 HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST. SEABREEZE POSSIBLE AFT 20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SUN...VFR.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
BELOW SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE REGION. SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS TIMEFRAME TO WARRANT ANY ISSUANCE OF SCA AT
THIS TIME.

THEREAFTER...A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE
WATERS OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN
SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW
FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 310822
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
422 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS EARLY SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA OVER
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE A NEGATIVE HEIGHT TENDENCY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL
PROMOTE DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY. EXPECTING A QUICK DIURNAL WARMING
AS ANY PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES LATER ON THIS MORNING.

THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE REMARKABLY LOWER...IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...MAKING FOR LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE
TEMPERATURES HOWEVER...WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEAK HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR LESS CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FOR THE FIRST
HALF...THEN SLIGHTLY SHIFTS AWAY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL TO START BUT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE DECREASING SUBSIDENCE. THIS FACTOR WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE
WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT IN ADDITION TO THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOWS FORECAST WILL BE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST REGION WITH THE
WARMER VALUES NEAR NYC AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND AS WELL AS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CONNECTICUT COAST.

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. A STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS WITH THE MARITIME INFLUENCE. STILL IT
WILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AND LOWER 90S FOR PARTS OF NYC AND URBAN NEW JERSEY. IN
ADDITION...THE HUMIDITY WILL BE BACK ON THE RISE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOME
MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT
WITHOUT MUCH COHERENCY BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS...WENT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR TIME BEING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF FROM CENTRAL CANADA SE INTO THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE NATION WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH
EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH ON WED AND LOOKS TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS.
FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

AT THE ONSET...TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE LOW SUNDAY...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP EARLY IN
THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF DRIER AIR FOR THE MID WEEK. TEMPS RETURN TO
NEARLY SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA...AND SHOULD BE
E OF ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 10-12Z. PATCHY MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
CONDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME...OUTSIDE OF THE METRO WITH
MINIMAL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. VFR THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT (LESS THAN 10KT) UNTIL MID MORNING OR SO. A SFC TROUGH
DEVELOPS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN RESULTING IN BACKING OF WINDS TO
THE W. GUSTS UP TO 20KT IN THE AFTN...MAINLY COASTAL TERMINALS.

SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY ATTM WITH A DECENT
SYNOPTIC FLOW. GUIDANCE WAS TOO WEAK WITH WINDS ALOFT YESTERDAY
AND IF THAT IS THE CASE AGAIN TODAY...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO
DEVELOP. HAVE INCLUDED IT AT KBDR AND HAVE HINTED AT THE
POSSIBILITY AT KJFK/KGON FOR NOW.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE LEFT OF 310 COULD BE 1-2
HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST. SEABREEZE POSSIBLE AFT 18Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE LEFT OF 310 COULD BE 1-2
HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST. SEABREEZE POSSIBLE LATE (AFT 22Z).

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE LEFT OF 310 COULD BE 1-2
HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE W COULD BE
1-2 HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE W COULD BE
1-2 HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE W COULD BE
1-2 HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST. SEABREEZE POSSIBLE AFT 20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SUN...VFR.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
BELOW SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE REGION. SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS TIMEFRAME TO WARRANT ANY ISSUANCE OF SCA AT
THIS TIME.

THEREAFTER...A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE
WATERS OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN
SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW
FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 310807
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
407 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS EARLY SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA OVER
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE A NEGATIVE HEIGHT TENDENCY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL
PROMOTE DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY. EXPECTING A QUICK DIURNAL WARMING
AS ANY PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES LATER ON THIS MORNING.

THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE REMARKABLY LOWER...IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...MAKING FOR LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE
TEMPERATURES HOWEVER...WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEAK HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR LESS CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FOR THE FIRST
HALF...THEN SLIGHTLY SHIFTS AWAY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL TO START BUT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE DECREASING SUBSIDENCE. THIS FACTOR WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE
WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT IN ADDITION TO THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOWS FORECAST WILL BE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST REGION WITH THE
WARMER VALUES NEAR NYC AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND AS WELL AS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CONNECTICUT COAST.

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. A STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS WITH THE MARITIME INFLUENCE. STILL IT
WILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AND LOWER 90S FOR PARTS OF NYC AND URBAN NEW JERSEY. IN
ADDITION...THE HUMIDITY WILL BE BACK ON THE RISE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOME
MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT
WITHOUT MUCH COHERENCY BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS...WENT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR TIME BEING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF FROM CENTRAL CANADA SE INTO THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE NATION WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH
EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH ON WED AND LOOKS TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS.
FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

AT THE ONSET...TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE LOW SUNDAY...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP EARLY IN
THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF DRIER AIR FOR THE MID WEEK. TEMPS RETURN TO
NEARLY SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 06Z COLD FRONT WAS EXTENDING FROM NEAR KBAF TO KDXR TO KSMQ AND
WAS MOVING SLOWLY ESE. TIMING OF FRONT THROUGH NYC TERMINALS BY
08Z LOOKS REASONABLE...SO MAINTAINED WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT THAT
TIME. PATCHY MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS POSSIBLE THROUGH
MORNING...EVEN POST-FRONTAL...OUTSIDE OF THE METRO WITH MINIMAL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. VFR THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
(LESS THAN 10KT) UNTIL MID MORNING OR SO. A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN RESULTING IN BACKING OF WINDS TO THE W.
TIMING OF THIS MAY BE 1-2 HOURS TOO EARLY. GUSTS UP TO 20KT IN THE
AFTN...MAINLY COASTAL TERMINALS.

SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY ATTM WITH A DECENT
SYNOPTIC FLOW. GUIDANCE WAS TOO WEAK WITH WINDS ALOFT YESTERDAY
AND IF THAT IS THE CASE AGAIN TODAY...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO
DEVELOP. HAVE INCLUDED IT AT KBDR AND HAVE HINTED AT THE
POSSIBILITY AT KJFK/KGON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SUN...VFR.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
BELOW SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE REGION. SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS TIMEFRAME TO WARRANT ANY ISSUANCE OF SCA AT
THIS TIME.

THEREAFTER...A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE
WATERS OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN
SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW
FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 310807
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
407 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS EARLY SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA OVER
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE A NEGATIVE HEIGHT TENDENCY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL
PROMOTE DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY. EXPECTING A QUICK DIURNAL WARMING
AS ANY PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES LATER ON THIS MORNING.

THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE REMARKABLY LOWER...IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...MAKING FOR LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE
TEMPERATURES HOWEVER...WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEAK HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR LESS CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FOR THE FIRST
HALF...THEN SLIGHTLY SHIFTS AWAY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL TO START BUT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE DECREASING SUBSIDENCE. THIS FACTOR WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE
WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT IN ADDITION TO THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOWS FORECAST WILL BE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST REGION WITH THE
WARMER VALUES NEAR NYC AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND AS WELL AS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CONNECTICUT COAST.

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. A STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS WITH THE MARITIME INFLUENCE. STILL IT
WILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AND LOWER 90S FOR PARTS OF NYC AND URBAN NEW JERSEY. IN
ADDITION...THE HUMIDITY WILL BE BACK ON THE RISE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOME
MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT
WITHOUT MUCH COHERENCY BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS...WENT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR TIME BEING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF FROM CENTRAL CANADA SE INTO THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE NATION WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH
EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH ON WED AND LOOKS TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS.
FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

AT THE ONSET...TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE LOW SUNDAY...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP EARLY IN
THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF DRIER AIR FOR THE MID WEEK. TEMPS RETURN TO
NEARLY SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 06Z COLD FRONT WAS EXTENDING FROM NEAR KBAF TO KDXR TO KSMQ AND
WAS MOVING SLOWLY ESE. TIMING OF FRONT THROUGH NYC TERMINALS BY
08Z LOOKS REASONABLE...SO MAINTAINED WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT THAT
TIME. PATCHY MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS POSSIBLE THROUGH
MORNING...EVEN POST-FRONTAL...OUTSIDE OF THE METRO WITH MINIMAL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. VFR THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
(LESS THAN 10KT) UNTIL MID MORNING OR SO. A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN RESULTING IN BACKING OF WINDS TO THE W.
TIMING OF THIS MAY BE 1-2 HOURS TOO EARLY. GUSTS UP TO 20KT IN THE
AFTN...MAINLY COASTAL TERMINALS.

SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY ATTM WITH A DECENT
SYNOPTIC FLOW. GUIDANCE WAS TOO WEAK WITH WINDS ALOFT YESTERDAY
AND IF THAT IS THE CASE AGAIN TODAY...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO
DEVELOP. HAVE INCLUDED IT AT KBDR AND HAVE HINTED AT THE
POSSIBILITY AT KJFK/KGON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SUN...VFR.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
BELOW SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE REGION. SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS TIMEFRAME TO WARRANT ANY ISSUANCE OF SCA AT
THIS TIME.

THEREAFTER...A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE
WATERS OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN
SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW
FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 310640
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
240 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...DEPARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN
BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST REGION WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES...WINDS...DEWPOINTS...AND CLOUDS SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED
TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS. MIN TEMPS WERE LOWERED BY A FEW
DEGREES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. WITH A SLOWER MOVING FRONT AND ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. THE
FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 70S IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN
THE 60S ELSEWHERE WITH UPPER 50S FOR SOME OF THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND
AROUND 90 IN/AROUND NYC/NORTHEAST NJ.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MUCH LESS HUMID AS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 70S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
60S ELSEWHERE.

THEE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT
BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A BIT MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SFC DEWPOINTS CREEP UP
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 06Z COLD FRONT WAS EXTENDING FROM NEAR KBAF TO KDXR TO KSMQ AND
WAS MOVING SLOWLY ESE. TIMING OF FRONT THROUGH NYC TERMINALS BY
08Z LOOKS REASONABLE...SO MAINTAINED WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT THAT
TIME. PATCHY MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS POSSIBLE THROUGH
MORNING...EVEN POST-FRONTAL...OUTSIDE OF THE METRO WITH MINIMAL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. VFR THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
(LESS THAN 10KT) UNTIL MID MORNING OR SO. A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN RESULTING IN BACKING OF WINDS TO THE W.
TIMING OF THIS MAY BE 1-2 HOURS TOO EARLY. GUSTS UP TO 20KT IN THE
AFTN...MAINLY COASTAL TERMINALS.

SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY ATTM WITH A DECENT
SYNOPTIC FLOW. GUIDANCE WAS TOO WEAK WITH WINDS ALOFT YESTERDAY
AND IF THAT IS THE CASE AGAIN TODAY...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO
DEVELOP. HAVE INCLUDED IT AT KBDR AND HAVE HINTED AT THE
POSSIBILITY AT KJFK/KGON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SUN...VFR.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE OCEAN AS SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO 3
TO 4 FT AND WINDS HAVE WEAKENED BELOW 25 KT GUST CRITERIA.

TRANQUIL CONDS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...JM/MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/MPS/DS
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 310640
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
240 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...DEPARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN
BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST REGION WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES...WINDS...DEWPOINTS...AND CLOUDS SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED
TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS. MIN TEMPS WERE LOWERED BY A FEW
DEGREES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. WITH A SLOWER MOVING FRONT AND ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. THE
FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 70S IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN
THE 60S ELSEWHERE WITH UPPER 50S FOR SOME OF THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND
AROUND 90 IN/AROUND NYC/NORTHEAST NJ.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MUCH LESS HUMID AS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 70S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
60S ELSEWHERE.

THEE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT
BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A BIT MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SFC DEWPOINTS CREEP UP
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 06Z COLD FRONT WAS EXTENDING FROM NEAR KBAF TO KDXR TO KSMQ AND
WAS MOVING SLOWLY ESE. TIMING OF FRONT THROUGH NYC TERMINALS BY
08Z LOOKS REASONABLE...SO MAINTAINED WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT THAT
TIME. PATCHY MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS POSSIBLE THROUGH
MORNING...EVEN POST-FRONTAL...OUTSIDE OF THE METRO WITH MINIMAL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. VFR THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
(LESS THAN 10KT) UNTIL MID MORNING OR SO. A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN RESULTING IN BACKING OF WINDS TO THE W.
TIMING OF THIS MAY BE 1-2 HOURS TOO EARLY. GUSTS UP TO 20KT IN THE
AFTN...MAINLY COASTAL TERMINALS.

SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY ATTM WITH A DECENT
SYNOPTIC FLOW. GUIDANCE WAS TOO WEAK WITH WINDS ALOFT YESTERDAY
AND IF THAT IS THE CASE AGAIN TODAY...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO
DEVELOP. HAVE INCLUDED IT AT KBDR AND HAVE HINTED AT THE
POSSIBILITY AT KJFK/KGON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SUN...VFR.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE OCEAN AS SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO 3
TO 4 FT AND WINDS HAVE WEAKENED BELOW 25 KT GUST CRITERIA.

TRANQUIL CONDS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...JM/MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/MPS/DS
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DS





000
FXUS61 KOKX 310248
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1048 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DEPARTING FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND IS SITTING
JUST WEST OF KMGJ. HOWEVER...EXPECT IT TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. WITH A SLOWER MOVING FRONT AND ABUNDANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
THE FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN/AROUND
NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND
AROUND 90 IN/AROUND NYC/NORTHEAST NJ.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MUCH LESS HUMID AS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 70S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
60S ELSEWHERE.

THEE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT
BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A BIT MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SFC DEWPOINTS CREEP UP
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA
WAS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND MAY NOT MOVE INTO
THE NYC AREA TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 08Z. WIND WAS LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KT. AREAS OF STRATUS FROM AROUND 400 FT
TO 2000 FT REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AT TIMES IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS
CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FLOW INTO THE AREA. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF THE STRATUS.

WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST...MAINLY TO THE RIGHT OF 310 TRUE...EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS.
SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...VFR WITH SW FLOW.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS AS SEAS
HAVE FALLEN TO 3 FT AND WINDS HAVE WEAKENED BELOW 25 KT GUST
CRITERIA. THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10Z FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN THROUGH 10Z...BUT THE RECENT TREND IS FOR SEAS
SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT...SO IT COULD BE TAKEN DOWN SOONER.

TRANQUIL CONDS TONIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS/DS
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 310248
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1048 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DEPARTING FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND IS SITTING
JUST WEST OF KMGJ. HOWEVER...EXPECT IT TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. WITH A SLOWER MOVING FRONT AND ABUNDANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
THE FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN/AROUND
NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND
AROUND 90 IN/AROUND NYC/NORTHEAST NJ.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MUCH LESS HUMID AS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 70S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
60S ELSEWHERE.

THEE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT
BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A BIT MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SFC DEWPOINTS CREEP UP
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA
WAS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND MAY NOT MOVE INTO
THE NYC AREA TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 08Z. WIND WAS LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KT. AREAS OF STRATUS FROM AROUND 400 FT
TO 2000 FT REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AT TIMES IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS
CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FLOW INTO THE AREA. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF THE STRATUS.

WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST...MAINLY TO THE RIGHT OF 310 TRUE...EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS.
SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...VFR WITH SW FLOW.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS AS SEAS
HAVE FALLEN TO 3 FT AND WINDS HAVE WEAKENED BELOW 25 KT GUST
CRITERIA. THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10Z FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN THROUGH 10Z...BUT THE RECENT TREND IS FOR SEAS
SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT...SO IT COULD BE TAKEN DOWN SOONER.

TRANQUIL CONDS TONIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS/DS
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DS





000
FXUS61 KOKX 310006
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
806 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DEPARTING FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. THE FRONT HAS DEVELOPED AN ISO SHOWER NEAR WARWICK NY. THE
MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA. BEHIND THE MAIN LINE...POPS TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE.
THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL BE THE ONLY SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY ISO
SHOWER OR STORM THIS EVENING. THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST
OVERNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN/AROUND NYC...AND
IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND
AROUND 90 IN/AROUND NYC/NORTHEAST NJ.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MUCH LESS HUMID AS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 70S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
60S ELSEWHERE.

THEE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT
BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A BIT MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SFC DEWPOINTS CREEP UP
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM
04Z TO 09Z.

SHOWERS WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WERE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
CONNECTICUT INTO CENTRAL LONG ISLAND WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING EAST OF
THE TERMINALS BY 02Z.

CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY VFR WITH SOME LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS WITH MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 02Z.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS. SOME
OUTLYING TERMINALS WILL HAVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND. WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST...MAINLY TO THE RIGHT OF 310 TRUE...EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS. SOME GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS SOME LOW STRATUS...AROUND 800
FT...AND A BRIEF CEILING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z. LOW CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRING. NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS:  THERE IS SOME LOW STRATUS...AROUND 1500
FT...AND A BRIEF CEILING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z. LOW CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRING. NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AFTER 06Z. NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED
FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS SOME LOW STRATUS...AROUND 800
FT...AND A BRIEF CEILING IS LIKELY THROUGH 02Z. WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG
AFTER 06Z. NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED FRIDAY. MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS END 01Z TO 02Z. THERE IS SOME LOW
STRATUS...AROUND 800 FT...AND A BRIEF CEILING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
02Z. OTHERWISE NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...VFR WITH SW FLOW.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR THE BAYS AND E LI SOUND HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. FOR THE
OCEAN WATERS...WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL DIMINISH TO SUB-SCA
LEVELS THIS EVENING...BUT SEAS UP AROUND 5 FT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TO SUB-SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TRANQUIL CONDS TONIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS/DS
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 310006
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
806 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DEPARTING FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. THE FRONT HAS DEVELOPED AN ISO SHOWER NEAR WARWICK NY. THE
MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA. BEHIND THE MAIN LINE...POPS TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE.
THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL BE THE ONLY SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY ISO
SHOWER OR STORM THIS EVENING. THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST
OVERNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN/AROUND NYC...AND
IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND
AROUND 90 IN/AROUND NYC/NORTHEAST NJ.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MUCH LESS HUMID AS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 70S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
60S ELSEWHERE.

THEE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT
BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A BIT MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SFC DEWPOINTS CREEP UP
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM
04Z TO 09Z.

SHOWERS WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WERE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
CONNECTICUT INTO CENTRAL LONG ISLAND WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING EAST OF
THE TERMINALS BY 02Z.

CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY VFR WITH SOME LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS WITH MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 02Z.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS. SOME
OUTLYING TERMINALS WILL HAVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND. WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST...MAINLY TO THE RIGHT OF 310 TRUE...EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS. SOME GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS SOME LOW STRATUS...AROUND 800
FT...AND A BRIEF CEILING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z. LOW CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRING. NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS:  THERE IS SOME LOW STRATUS...AROUND 1500
FT...AND A BRIEF CEILING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z. LOW CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRING. NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AFTER 06Z. NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED
FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS SOME LOW STRATUS...AROUND 800
FT...AND A BRIEF CEILING IS LIKELY THROUGH 02Z. WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG
AFTER 06Z. NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED FRIDAY. MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS END 01Z TO 02Z. THERE IS SOME LOW
STRATUS...AROUND 800 FT...AND A BRIEF CEILING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
02Z. OTHERWISE NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...VFR WITH SW FLOW.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR THE BAYS AND E LI SOUND HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. FOR THE
OCEAN WATERS...WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL DIMINISH TO SUB-SCA
LEVELS THIS EVENING...BUT SEAS UP AROUND 5 FT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TO SUB-SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TRANQUIL CONDS TONIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS/DS
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DS





000
FXUS61 KOKX 310006
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
806 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DEPARTING FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. THE FRONT HAS DEVELOPED AN ISO SHOWER NEAR WARWICK NY. THE
MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA. BEHIND THE MAIN LINE...POPS TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE.
THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL BE THE ONLY SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY ISO
SHOWER OR STORM THIS EVENING. THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST
OVERNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN/AROUND NYC...AND
IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND
AROUND 90 IN/AROUND NYC/NORTHEAST NJ.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MUCH LESS HUMID AS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 70S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
60S ELSEWHERE.

THEE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT
BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A BIT MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SFC DEWPOINTS CREEP UP
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM
04Z TO 09Z.

SHOWERS WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WERE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
CONNECTICUT INTO CENTRAL LONG ISLAND WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING EAST OF
THE TERMINALS BY 02Z.

CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY VFR WITH SOME LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS WITH MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 02Z.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS. SOME
OUTLYING TERMINALS WILL HAVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND. WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST...MAINLY TO THE RIGHT OF 310 TRUE...EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS. SOME GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS SOME LOW STRATUS...AROUND 800
FT...AND A BRIEF CEILING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z. LOW CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRING. NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS:  THERE IS SOME LOW STRATUS...AROUND 1500
FT...AND A BRIEF CEILING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z. LOW CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRING. NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AFTER 06Z. NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED
FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS SOME LOW STRATUS...AROUND 800
FT...AND A BRIEF CEILING IS LIKELY THROUGH 02Z. WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG
AFTER 06Z. NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED FRIDAY. MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS END 01Z TO 02Z. THERE IS SOME LOW
STRATUS...AROUND 800 FT...AND A BRIEF CEILING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
02Z. OTHERWISE NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...VFR WITH SW FLOW.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR THE BAYS AND E LI SOUND HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. FOR THE
OCEAN WATERS...WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL DIMINISH TO SUB-SCA
LEVELS THIS EVENING...BUT SEAS UP AROUND 5 FT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TO SUB-SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TRANQUIL CONDS TONIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS/DS
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DS





000
FXUS61 KOKX 310006
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
806 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DEPARTING FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. THE FRONT HAS DEVELOPED AN ISO SHOWER NEAR WARWICK NY. THE
MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA. BEHIND THE MAIN LINE...POPS TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE.
THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL BE THE ONLY SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY ISO
SHOWER OR STORM THIS EVENING. THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST
OVERNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN/AROUND NYC...AND
IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND
AROUND 90 IN/AROUND NYC/NORTHEAST NJ.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MUCH LESS HUMID AS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 70S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
60S ELSEWHERE.

THEE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT
BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A BIT MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SFC DEWPOINTS CREEP UP
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM
04Z TO 09Z.

SHOWERS WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WERE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
CONNECTICUT INTO CENTRAL LONG ISLAND WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING EAST OF
THE TERMINALS BY 02Z.

CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY VFR WITH SOME LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS WITH MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 02Z.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS. SOME
OUTLYING TERMINALS WILL HAVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND. WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST...MAINLY TO THE RIGHT OF 310 TRUE...EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS. SOME GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS SOME LOW STRATUS...AROUND 800
FT...AND A BRIEF CEILING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z. LOW CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRING. NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS:  THERE IS SOME LOW STRATUS...AROUND 1500
FT...AND A BRIEF CEILING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z. LOW CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRING. NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AFTER 06Z. NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED
FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS SOME LOW STRATUS...AROUND 800
FT...AND A BRIEF CEILING IS LIKELY THROUGH 02Z. WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG
AFTER 06Z. NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED FRIDAY. MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS END 01Z TO 02Z. THERE IS SOME LOW
STRATUS...AROUND 800 FT...AND A BRIEF CEILING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
02Z. OTHERWISE NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...VFR WITH SW FLOW.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR THE BAYS AND E LI SOUND HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. FOR THE
OCEAN WATERS...WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL DIMINISH TO SUB-SCA
LEVELS THIS EVENING...BUT SEAS UP AROUND 5 FT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TO SUB-SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TRANQUIL CONDS TONIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS/DS
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 302239
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
639 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DEPARTING FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED OVER EASTERN PA/NY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST THIS EVENING. LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKENED
AS IT HAS MOVED EAST INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER CONTINUE BUT
THE THREAT FOR ANY DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING HAS ENDED.

THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR NYC HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 70S. HEAT INDICES WILL STAY IN THE 80S THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH DROPPING SFC DEW POINTS
INTO THE 60S.

HAVE LOWERED POPS BEHIND THE LING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED
WITH THE FRONT PASSAGE AS A SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT PASSAGE THIS EVENING. WITH ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN/AROUND NYC...AND
IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND
AROUND 90 IN/AROUND NYC/NORTHEAST NJ.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MUCH LESS HUMID AS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 70S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
60S ELSEWHERE.

THEE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT
BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A BIT MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SFC DEWPOINTS CREEP UP
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER ERN PA WILL PASS THRU THE REGION TNGT.

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS EAST OF THE NYC AREA TERMINALS
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. IN THE LINE OF CONVECTION MVFR TO
BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY. BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MAINLY SSW FLOW TIL THIS EVE WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW THEN NW.
SPEED AND DIRECTION VARIABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED INVOF TSTMS.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT 02Z TO 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT 02Z TO 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TSTMS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT 2130Z
WITH MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST PORTION OF THE
CONVECTION. BEHIND THE LINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WITH LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTN...VFR WITH W WINDS.
.SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH SW FLOW.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGE WITH SCA HEADLINES WITH THIS UPDATE. THE SCA FOR THE
BAYS AND E LI SOUND WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS EVENING.
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL DIMINISH TO SUB-
SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING...BUT SEAS UP AROUND 5 FT WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TRANQUIL CONDS TONIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SE CT AND
EASTERN LI WITH BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS/DS
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 302239
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
639 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DEPARTING FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED OVER EASTERN PA/NY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST THIS EVENING. LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKENED
AS IT HAS MOVED EAST INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER CONTINUE BUT
THE THREAT FOR ANY DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING HAS ENDED.

THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR NYC HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 70S. HEAT INDICES WILL STAY IN THE 80S THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH DROPPING SFC DEW POINTS
INTO THE 60S.

HAVE LOWERED POPS BEHIND THE LING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED
WITH THE FRONT PASSAGE AS A SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT PASSAGE THIS EVENING. WITH ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN/AROUND NYC...AND
IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND
AROUND 90 IN/AROUND NYC/NORTHEAST NJ.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MUCH LESS HUMID AS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 70S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
60S ELSEWHERE.

THEE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT
BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A BIT MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SFC DEWPOINTS CREEP UP
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER ERN PA WILL PASS THRU THE REGION TNGT.

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS EAST OF THE NYC AREA TERMINALS
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. IN THE LINE OF CONVECTION MVFR TO
BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY. BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MAINLY SSW FLOW TIL THIS EVE WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW THEN NW.
SPEED AND DIRECTION VARIABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED INVOF TSTMS.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT 02Z TO 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT 02Z TO 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TSTMS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT 2130Z
WITH MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST PORTION OF THE
CONVECTION. BEHIND THE LINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WITH LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTN...VFR WITH W WINDS.
.SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH SW FLOW.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGE WITH SCA HEADLINES WITH THIS UPDATE. THE SCA FOR THE
BAYS AND E LI SOUND WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS EVENING.
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL DIMINISH TO SUB-
SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING...BUT SEAS UP AROUND 5 FT WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TRANQUIL CONDS TONIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SE CT AND
EASTERN LI WITH BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS/DS
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 302239
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
639 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DEPARTING FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED OVER EASTERN PA/NY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST THIS EVENING. LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKENED
AS IT HAS MOVED EAST INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER CONTINUE BUT
THE THREAT FOR ANY DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING HAS ENDED.

THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR NYC HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 70S. HEAT INDICES WILL STAY IN THE 80S THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH DROPPING SFC DEW POINTS
INTO THE 60S.

HAVE LOWERED POPS BEHIND THE LING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED
WITH THE FRONT PASSAGE AS A SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT PASSAGE THIS EVENING. WITH ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN/AROUND NYC...AND
IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND
AROUND 90 IN/AROUND NYC/NORTHEAST NJ.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MUCH LESS HUMID AS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 70S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
60S ELSEWHERE.

THEE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT
BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A BIT MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SFC DEWPOINTS CREEP UP
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER ERN PA WILL PASS THRU THE REGION TNGT.

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS EAST OF THE NYC AREA TERMINALS
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. IN THE LINE OF CONVECTION MVFR TO
BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY. BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MAINLY SSW FLOW TIL THIS EVE WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW THEN NW.
SPEED AND DIRECTION VARIABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED INVOF TSTMS.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT 02Z TO 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT 02Z TO 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TSTMS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT 2130Z
WITH MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST PORTION OF THE
CONVECTION. BEHIND THE LINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WITH LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTN...VFR WITH W WINDS.
.SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH SW FLOW.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGE WITH SCA HEADLINES WITH THIS UPDATE. THE SCA FOR THE
BAYS AND E LI SOUND WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS EVENING.
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL DIMINISH TO SUB-
SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING...BUT SEAS UP AROUND 5 FT WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TRANQUIL CONDS TONIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SE CT AND
EASTERN LI WITH BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS/DS
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DS





000
FXUS61 KOKX 302239
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
639 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DEPARTING FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED OVER EASTERN PA/NY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST THIS EVENING. LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKENED
AS IT HAS MOVED EAST INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER CONTINUE BUT
THE THREAT FOR ANY DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING HAS ENDED.

THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR NYC HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 70S. HEAT INDICES WILL STAY IN THE 80S THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH DROPPING SFC DEW POINTS
INTO THE 60S.

HAVE LOWERED POPS BEHIND THE LING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED
WITH THE FRONT PASSAGE AS A SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT PASSAGE THIS EVENING. WITH ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN/AROUND NYC...AND
IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND
AROUND 90 IN/AROUND NYC/NORTHEAST NJ.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MUCH LESS HUMID AS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 70S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
60S ELSEWHERE.

THEE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT
BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A BIT MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SFC DEWPOINTS CREEP UP
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER ERN PA WILL PASS THRU THE REGION TNGT.

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS EAST OF THE NYC AREA TERMINALS
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. IN THE LINE OF CONVECTION MVFR TO
BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY. BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MAINLY SSW FLOW TIL THIS EVE WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW THEN NW.
SPEED AND DIRECTION VARIABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED INVOF TSTMS.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT 02Z TO 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT 02Z TO 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TSTMS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT 2130Z
WITH MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST PORTION OF THE
CONVECTION. BEHIND THE LINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WITH LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTN...VFR WITH W WINDS.
.SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH SW FLOW.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGE WITH SCA HEADLINES WITH THIS UPDATE. THE SCA FOR THE
BAYS AND E LI SOUND WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS EVENING.
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL DIMINISH TO SUB-
SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING...BUT SEAS UP AROUND 5 FT WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TRANQUIL CONDS TONIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SE CT AND
EASTERN LI WITH BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS/DS
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DS





000
FXUS61 KOKX 302143
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
543 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DEPARTING FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NY/PA CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND ARE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

WITH REGARDS TO THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR NYC...WILL KEEP IT IN EFFECT
AS SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S...AND WITH THE RAIN...EXPECT
SFC DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN HIGH. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND SOMEWHAT IN
BETWEEN STORMS...AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO REACH A HEAT INDEX
OF 95. HOWEVER...IF IT DOES NOT OCCUR PRIOR TO 6PM...IT MAY NOT
HAPPEN.

SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH STORMS DEPARTING EASTERN AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT.
COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE THROUGH UNTIL LATE...SO WITH ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE
CITY...WITH MOST FOG ACROSS EASTERN CT AND EASTERN LI.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN/AROUND NYC...AND
IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND
AROUND 90 IN/AROUND NYC/NORTHEAST NJ.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MUCH LESS HUMID AS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 70S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
60S ELSEWHERE.

THEE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT
BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A BIT MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SFC DEWPOINTS CREEP UP
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER ERN PA WILL PASS THRU THE REGION TNGT.

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS EAST OF THE NYC AREA TERMINALS
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. IN THE LINE OF CONVECTION MVFR TO
BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY. BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MAINLY SSW FLOW TIL THIS EVE WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW THEN NW.
SPEED AND DIRECTION VARIABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED INVOF TSTMS.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT 02Z TO 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT 02Z TO 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TSTMS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT 2130Z
WITH MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST PORTION OF THE
CONVECTION. BEHIND THE LINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WITH LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTN...VFR WITH W WINDS.
.SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH SW FLOW.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND WILL KEEP
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP ON EASTERN LI SOUND/LI BAYS UNTIL 8 PM FOR
25 KT WIND GUSTS. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
DIMINISH TO SUB-SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING...BUT SEAS UP AROUND 5 FT
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TRANQUIL CONDS TONIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF APPROXIMATELY 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR NYC AND
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. THERE
WILL ALSO THOUGH BE A POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING BUT EXPECT
THIS TO BE MORE ISOLATED.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS





000
FXUS61 KOKX 302143
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
543 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DEPARTING FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NY/PA CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND ARE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

WITH REGARDS TO THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR NYC...WILL KEEP IT IN EFFECT
AS SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S...AND WITH THE RAIN...EXPECT
SFC DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN HIGH. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND SOMEWHAT IN
BETWEEN STORMS...AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO REACH A HEAT INDEX
OF 95. HOWEVER...IF IT DOES NOT OCCUR PRIOR TO 6PM...IT MAY NOT
HAPPEN.

SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH STORMS DEPARTING EASTERN AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT.
COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE THROUGH UNTIL LATE...SO WITH ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE
CITY...WITH MOST FOG ACROSS EASTERN CT AND EASTERN LI.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN/AROUND NYC...AND
IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND
AROUND 90 IN/AROUND NYC/NORTHEAST NJ.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MUCH LESS HUMID AS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 70S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
60S ELSEWHERE.

THEE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT
BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A BIT MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SFC DEWPOINTS CREEP UP
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER ERN PA WILL PASS THRU THE REGION TNGT.

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS EAST OF THE NYC AREA TERMINALS
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. IN THE LINE OF CONVECTION MVFR TO
BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY. BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MAINLY SSW FLOW TIL THIS EVE WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW THEN NW.
SPEED AND DIRECTION VARIABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED INVOF TSTMS.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT 02Z TO 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT 02Z TO 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TSTMS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT 2130Z
WITH MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST PORTION OF THE
CONVECTION. BEHIND THE LINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WITH LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTN...VFR WITH W WINDS.
.SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH SW FLOW.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND WILL KEEP
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP ON EASTERN LI SOUND/LI BAYS UNTIL 8 PM FOR
25 KT WIND GUSTS. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
DIMINISH TO SUB-SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING...BUT SEAS UP AROUND 5 FT
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TRANQUIL CONDS TONIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF APPROXIMATELY 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR NYC AND
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. THERE
WILL ALSO THOUGH BE A POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING BUT EXPECT
THIS TO BE MORE ISOLATED.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 302143
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
543 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DEPARTING FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NY/PA CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND ARE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

WITH REGARDS TO THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR NYC...WILL KEEP IT IN EFFECT
AS SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S...AND WITH THE RAIN...EXPECT
SFC DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN HIGH. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND SOMEWHAT IN
BETWEEN STORMS...AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO REACH A HEAT INDEX
OF 95. HOWEVER...IF IT DOES NOT OCCUR PRIOR TO 6PM...IT MAY NOT
HAPPEN.

SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH STORMS DEPARTING EASTERN AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT.
COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE THROUGH UNTIL LATE...SO WITH ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE
CITY...WITH MOST FOG ACROSS EASTERN CT AND EASTERN LI.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN/AROUND NYC...AND
IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND
AROUND 90 IN/AROUND NYC/NORTHEAST NJ.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MUCH LESS HUMID AS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 70S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
60S ELSEWHERE.

THEE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT
BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A BIT MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SFC DEWPOINTS CREEP UP
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER ERN PA WILL PASS THRU THE REGION TNGT.

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS EAST OF THE NYC AREA TERMINALS
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. IN THE LINE OF CONVECTION MVFR TO
BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY. BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MAINLY SSW FLOW TIL THIS EVE WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW THEN NW.
SPEED AND DIRECTION VARIABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED INVOF TSTMS.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT 02Z TO 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT 02Z TO 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TSTMS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT 2130Z
WITH MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST PORTION OF THE
CONVECTION. BEHIND THE LINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WITH LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTN...VFR WITH W WINDS.
.SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH SW FLOW.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND WILL KEEP
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP ON EASTERN LI SOUND/LI BAYS UNTIL 8 PM FOR
25 KT WIND GUSTS. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
DIMINISH TO SUB-SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING...BUT SEAS UP AROUND 5 FT
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TRANQUIL CONDS TONIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF APPROXIMATELY 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR NYC AND
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. THERE
WILL ALSO THOUGH BE A POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING BUT EXPECT
THIS TO BE MORE ISOLATED.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS





000
FXUS61 KOKX 302143
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
543 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DEPARTING FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NY/PA CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND ARE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

WITH REGARDS TO THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR NYC...WILL KEEP IT IN EFFECT
AS SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S...AND WITH THE RAIN...EXPECT
SFC DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN HIGH. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND SOMEWHAT IN
BETWEEN STORMS...AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO REACH A HEAT INDEX
OF 95. HOWEVER...IF IT DOES NOT OCCUR PRIOR TO 6PM...IT MAY NOT
HAPPEN.

SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH STORMS DEPARTING EASTERN AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT.
COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE THROUGH UNTIL LATE...SO WITH ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE
CITY...WITH MOST FOG ACROSS EASTERN CT AND EASTERN LI.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN/AROUND NYC...AND
IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND
AROUND 90 IN/AROUND NYC/NORTHEAST NJ.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MUCH LESS HUMID AS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 70S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
60S ELSEWHERE.

THEE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT
BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A BIT MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SFC DEWPOINTS CREEP UP
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER ERN PA WILL PASS THRU THE REGION TNGT.

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS EAST OF THE NYC AREA TERMINALS
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. IN THE LINE OF CONVECTION MVFR TO
BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY. BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MAINLY SSW FLOW TIL THIS EVE WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW THEN NW.
SPEED AND DIRECTION VARIABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED INVOF TSTMS.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT 02Z TO 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT 02Z TO 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TSTMS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT 2130Z
WITH MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST PORTION OF THE
CONVECTION. BEHIND THE LINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WITH LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTN...VFR WITH W WINDS.
.SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH SW FLOW.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND WILL KEEP
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP ON EASTERN LI SOUND/LI BAYS UNTIL 8 PM FOR
25 KT WIND GUSTS. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
DIMINISH TO SUB-SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING...BUT SEAS UP AROUND 5 FT
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TRANQUIL CONDS TONIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF APPROXIMATELY 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR NYC AND
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. THERE
WILL ALSO THOUGH BE A POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING BUT EXPECT
THIS TO BE MORE ISOLATED.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301941
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
341 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DEPARTING FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NY/PA CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND ARE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

WITH REGARDS TO THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR NYC...WILL KEEP IT IN EFFECT
AS SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S...AND WITH THE RAIN...EXPECT
SFC DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN HIGH. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND SOMEWHAT IN
BETWEEN STORMS...AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO REACH A HEAT INDEX
OF 95. HOWEVER...IF IT DOES NOT OCCUR PRIOR TO 6PM...IT MAY NOT
HAPPEN.

SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH STORMS DEPARTING EASTERN AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT.
COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE THROUGH UNTIL LATE...SO WITH ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE
CITY...WITH MOST FOG ACROSS EASTERN CT AND EASTERN LI.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN/AROUND NYC...AND
IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND
AROUND 90 IN/AROUND NYC/NORTHEAST NJ.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MUCH LESS HUMID AS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 70S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
60S ELSEWHERE.

THEE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT
BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A BIT MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SFC DEWPOINTS CREEP UP
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER ERN PA WILL PASS THRU THE REGION TNGT.

MAIN AREA OF TSTMS NOW APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE W FASTER
THAN ORIGINALLY PLANNED. HAVE THEREFORE AMENDED THE TAFS TO
INDICATE A FASTER TIMING.

CIGS INTO THIS EVE LIKELY TO CONTINUE BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR. SOME IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST TSTMS MAINLY DUE
TO VIS.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TNGT BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE COULD BE SOME
RESIDUAL VIS RESTRICTIONS IN BR TIL THE DRY AIR FLOWS
IN...PARTICULARLY THE OUTLYING TERMINALS.

MAINLY SSW FLOW TIL THIS EVE WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW THEN NW.
SPEED AND DIRECTION VARIABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED INVOF TSTMS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND VARIABILITY LIKELY THRU 23Z DUE TO
TSTMS IN THE AREA. UPDATES TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE IF STRONGER TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND VARIABILITY LIKELY THRU 23Z DUE TO TSTMS
IN THE AREA. UPDATES TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVE IF STRONGER TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND VARIABILITY LIKELY THRU 23Z DUE TO TSTMS
IN THE AREA. UPDATES TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVE IF STRONGER TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND VARIABILITY LIKELY THRU 23Z DUE TO TSTMS
IN THE AREA. UPDATES TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVE IF STRONGER TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND VARIABILITY LIKELY THRU 23Z DUE TO TSTMS
IN THE AREA. UPDATES TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVE IF STRONGER TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TSTMS TRACKING ACROSS LI MAY IMPACT THE
ARPT BY 2030Z. VCTS FOR THIS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTN...VFR WITH W WINDS.
.SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH SW FLOW.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND WILL KEEP
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP ON EASTERN LI SOUND/LI BAYS UNTIL 8 PM FOR
25 KT WIND GUSTS. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
DIMINISH TO SUB-SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING...BUT SEAS UP AROUND 5 FT
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TRANQUIL CONDS TONIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF APPROXIMATELY 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR NYC AND
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. THERE
WILL ALSO THOUGH BE A POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING BUT EXPECT
THIS TO BE MORE ISOLATED.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301941
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
341 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DEPARTING FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NY/PA CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND ARE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

WITH REGARDS TO THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR NYC...WILL KEEP IT IN EFFECT
AS SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S...AND WITH THE RAIN...EXPECT
SFC DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN HIGH. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND SOMEWHAT IN
BETWEEN STORMS...AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO REACH A HEAT INDEX
OF 95. HOWEVER...IF IT DOES NOT OCCUR PRIOR TO 6PM...IT MAY NOT
HAPPEN.

SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH STORMS DEPARTING EASTERN AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT.
COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE THROUGH UNTIL LATE...SO WITH ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE
CITY...WITH MOST FOG ACROSS EASTERN CT AND EASTERN LI.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN/AROUND NYC...AND
IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND
AROUND 90 IN/AROUND NYC/NORTHEAST NJ.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MUCH LESS HUMID AS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 70S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
60S ELSEWHERE.

THEE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT
BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A BIT MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SFC DEWPOINTS CREEP UP
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER ERN PA WILL PASS THRU THE REGION TNGT.

MAIN AREA OF TSTMS NOW APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE W FASTER
THAN ORIGINALLY PLANNED. HAVE THEREFORE AMENDED THE TAFS TO
INDICATE A FASTER TIMING.

CIGS INTO THIS EVE LIKELY TO CONTINUE BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR. SOME IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST TSTMS MAINLY DUE
TO VIS.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TNGT BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE COULD BE SOME
RESIDUAL VIS RESTRICTIONS IN BR TIL THE DRY AIR FLOWS
IN...PARTICULARLY THE OUTLYING TERMINALS.

MAINLY SSW FLOW TIL THIS EVE WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW THEN NW.
SPEED AND DIRECTION VARIABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED INVOF TSTMS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND VARIABILITY LIKELY THRU 23Z DUE TO
TSTMS IN THE AREA. UPDATES TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE IF STRONGER TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND VARIABILITY LIKELY THRU 23Z DUE TO TSTMS
IN THE AREA. UPDATES TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVE IF STRONGER TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND VARIABILITY LIKELY THRU 23Z DUE TO TSTMS
IN THE AREA. UPDATES TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVE IF STRONGER TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND VARIABILITY LIKELY THRU 23Z DUE TO TSTMS
IN THE AREA. UPDATES TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVE IF STRONGER TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND VARIABILITY LIKELY THRU 23Z DUE TO TSTMS
IN THE AREA. UPDATES TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVE IF STRONGER TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TSTMS TRACKING ACROSS LI MAY IMPACT THE
ARPT BY 2030Z. VCTS FOR THIS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTN...VFR WITH W WINDS.
.SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH SW FLOW.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND WILL KEEP
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP ON EASTERN LI SOUND/LI BAYS UNTIL 8 PM FOR
25 KT WIND GUSTS. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
DIMINISH TO SUB-SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING...BUT SEAS UP AROUND 5 FT
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TRANQUIL CONDS TONIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF APPROXIMATELY 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR NYC AND
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. THERE
WILL ALSO THOUGH BE A POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING BUT EXPECT
THIS TO BE MORE ISOLATED.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS





000
FXUS61 KOKX 301716
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
116 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. MULTIPLE WEAK COLD FRONTS
OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NY/PA CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST. WIDESPREAD
STRATUS KEPT TEMPS DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO START TO CLIMB. INSTABILITY
LEVELS ARE CLIMBING...WITH 0-10 KM MU CAPE VALUES OVER 1500 J/KG
ACROSS THE CWA.

WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR NYC...MAINLY FOR THE HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS. TEMPS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING 90...BUT THE HIGH
HUMIDITY SHOULD MAKE UP FOR IT. WILL REEVALUATE WITH AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE TO DETERMINE IF IT CAN COME DOWN OR NOT. THE HEAT
INDEX IS JUST NOW AT 90 IN PARTS OF NYC...SO IT SHOULD NOT BE HARD
TO REACH 95 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

STORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS THAT FRONT TRACKS TO THE EAST.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THIS WILL DISSIPATE LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE BULK OF CONVECTION MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
WITH THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PIVOTS AROUND THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AS MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE NEXT AIRMASS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. A CONTINUED VERY WARM BUT NOW DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN. DEWPOINTS LOWER TO UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PERIOD WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NE QUARTER OF THE NATION. POLAR VORTEX DURING THIS
TIME DESCENDS FROM HUDSON BAY ON SAT SE INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE BY MID
WEEK. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL SEND WEAK COLD
FRONTS OR TROFS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT
CONVECTION. MDT INSTABILITY...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
SOME WIND SHEAR SUPPORTS ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE WITH A DEEP-LAYERED W/SW FLOW.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
OVERALL THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER THAN RECENT DAYS...SO A LITTLE
LESS HUMID. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE OVERDONE A BIT AS THE GFS IS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH A SHARPER TROF AND COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH LATE TUE. ECMWF/GGEM ARE CONSIDERABLY FLATTER AND WARMER.
SUBSEQUENT TENDS IN GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WILL BE WATCHED. GEFS SUPPORTS
WARMER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER PA WILL PASS THRU THE REGION TNGT.

SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS AFTN. THIS WAS HANDLED WITH
A VCTS IN THE TAFS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF TSTMS UPSTREAM CLOSER
TO THE FRONT WILL TRACK THRU AFT 19-20Z IN THE CITY. TEMPOS FOR
THESE IN THE TAFS.

GENERALLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT TIL AFT 00Z. MVFR OR
LOWER IN TSTMS.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TNGT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. THERE COULD BE
SOME RESIDUAL VIS RESTRICTIONS IN BR TIL THE DRY AIR FLOWS
IN...PARTICULARLY THE OUTLYING TERMINALS.

MAINLY SSW FLOW TIL THIS EVE WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW THEN NW.
SPEED AND DIRECTION VARIABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED INVOF TSTMS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UPDATES TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS CAN
BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE IF STRONGER TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UPDATES TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS CAN
BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE IF STRONGER TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UPDATES TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS CAN
BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE IF STRONGER TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UPDATES TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS CAN
BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE IF STRONGER TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR MAY REMAIN ALL DAY. UPDATES TO TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE IF STRONGER
TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR MAY REMAIN ALL DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTN...VFR WITH W WINDS.
.SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH SW FLOW.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
BUFKIT EXHIBITS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH 25
KT GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS. WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY VERIFYING WITHIN
A FOOT OF BUOY OBS. THE OCEAN SEAS INCREASE TO 5 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SWELL. THE SCA SEAS LAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A RETURN TO
SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN
LATE MON INTO TUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PREVAILING
FLOW WILL BE S/SW DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF APPROXIMATELY 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR NYC AND
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. THERE
WILL ALSO THOUGH BE A POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING BUT EXPECT
THIS TO BE MORE ISOLATED.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 301716
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
116 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. MULTIPLE WEAK COLD FRONTS
OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NY/PA CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST. WIDESPREAD
STRATUS KEPT TEMPS DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO START TO CLIMB. INSTABILITY
LEVELS ARE CLIMBING...WITH 0-10 KM MU CAPE VALUES OVER 1500 J/KG
ACROSS THE CWA.

WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR NYC...MAINLY FOR THE HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS. TEMPS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING 90...BUT THE HIGH
HUMIDITY SHOULD MAKE UP FOR IT. WILL REEVALUATE WITH AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE TO DETERMINE IF IT CAN COME DOWN OR NOT. THE HEAT
INDEX IS JUST NOW AT 90 IN PARTS OF NYC...SO IT SHOULD NOT BE HARD
TO REACH 95 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

STORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS THAT FRONT TRACKS TO THE EAST.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THIS WILL DISSIPATE LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE BULK OF CONVECTION MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
WITH THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PIVOTS AROUND THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AS MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE NEXT AIRMASS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. A CONTINUED VERY WARM BUT NOW DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN. DEWPOINTS LOWER TO UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PERIOD WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NE QUARTER OF THE NATION. POLAR VORTEX DURING THIS
TIME DESCENDS FROM HUDSON BAY ON SAT SE INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE BY MID
WEEK. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL SEND WEAK COLD
FRONTS OR TROFS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT
CONVECTION. MDT INSTABILITY...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
SOME WIND SHEAR SUPPORTS ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE WITH A DEEP-LAYERED W/SW FLOW.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
OVERALL THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER THAN RECENT DAYS...SO A LITTLE
LESS HUMID. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE OVERDONE A BIT AS THE GFS IS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH A SHARPER TROF AND COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH LATE TUE. ECMWF/GGEM ARE CONSIDERABLY FLATTER AND WARMER.
SUBSEQUENT TENDS IN GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WILL BE WATCHED. GEFS SUPPORTS
WARMER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER PA WILL PASS THRU THE REGION TNGT.

SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS AFTN. THIS WAS HANDLED WITH
A VCTS IN THE TAFS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF TSTMS UPSTREAM CLOSER
TO THE FRONT WILL TRACK THRU AFT 19-20Z IN THE CITY. TEMPOS FOR
THESE IN THE TAFS.

GENERALLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT TIL AFT 00Z. MVFR OR
LOWER IN TSTMS.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TNGT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. THERE COULD BE
SOME RESIDUAL VIS RESTRICTIONS IN BR TIL THE DRY AIR FLOWS
IN...PARTICULARLY THE OUTLYING TERMINALS.

MAINLY SSW FLOW TIL THIS EVE WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW THEN NW.
SPEED AND DIRECTION VARIABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED INVOF TSTMS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UPDATES TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS CAN
BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE IF STRONGER TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UPDATES TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS CAN
BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE IF STRONGER TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UPDATES TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS CAN
BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE IF STRONGER TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UPDATES TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS CAN
BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE IF STRONGER TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR MAY REMAIN ALL DAY. UPDATES TO TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE IF STRONGER
TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR MAY REMAIN ALL DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTN...VFR WITH W WINDS.
.SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH SW FLOW.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
BUFKIT EXHIBITS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH 25
KT GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS. WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY VERIFYING WITHIN
A FOOT OF BUOY OBS. THE OCEAN SEAS INCREASE TO 5 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SWELL. THE SCA SEAS LAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A RETURN TO
SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN
LATE MON INTO TUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PREVAILING
FLOW WILL BE S/SW DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF APPROXIMATELY 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR NYC AND
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. THERE
WILL ALSO THOUGH BE A POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING BUT EXPECT
THIS TO BE MORE ISOLATED.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301716
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
116 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. MULTIPLE WEAK COLD FRONTS
OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NY/PA CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST. WIDESPREAD
STRATUS KEPT TEMPS DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO START TO CLIMB. INSTABILITY
LEVELS ARE CLIMBING...WITH 0-10 KM MU CAPE VALUES OVER 1500 J/KG
ACROSS THE CWA.

WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR NYC...MAINLY FOR THE HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS. TEMPS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING 90...BUT THE HIGH
HUMIDITY SHOULD MAKE UP FOR IT. WILL REEVALUATE WITH AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE TO DETERMINE IF IT CAN COME DOWN OR NOT. THE HEAT
INDEX IS JUST NOW AT 90 IN PARTS OF NYC...SO IT SHOULD NOT BE HARD
TO REACH 95 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

STORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS THAT FRONT TRACKS TO THE EAST.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THIS WILL DISSIPATE LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE BULK OF CONVECTION MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
WITH THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PIVOTS AROUND THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AS MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE NEXT AIRMASS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. A CONTINUED VERY WARM BUT NOW DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN. DEWPOINTS LOWER TO UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PERIOD WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NE QUARTER OF THE NATION. POLAR VORTEX DURING THIS
TIME DESCENDS FROM HUDSON BAY ON SAT SE INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE BY MID
WEEK. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL SEND WEAK COLD
FRONTS OR TROFS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT
CONVECTION. MDT INSTABILITY...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
SOME WIND SHEAR SUPPORTS ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE WITH A DEEP-LAYERED W/SW FLOW.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
OVERALL THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER THAN RECENT DAYS...SO A LITTLE
LESS HUMID. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE OVERDONE A BIT AS THE GFS IS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH A SHARPER TROF AND COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH LATE TUE. ECMWF/GGEM ARE CONSIDERABLY FLATTER AND WARMER.
SUBSEQUENT TENDS IN GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WILL BE WATCHED. GEFS SUPPORTS
WARMER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER PA WILL PASS THRU THE REGION TNGT.

SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS AFTN. THIS WAS HANDLED WITH
A VCTS IN THE TAFS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF TSTMS UPSTREAM CLOSER
TO THE FRONT WILL TRACK THRU AFT 19-20Z IN THE CITY. TEMPOS FOR
THESE IN THE TAFS.

GENERALLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT TIL AFT 00Z. MVFR OR
LOWER IN TSTMS.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TNGT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. THERE COULD BE
SOME RESIDUAL VIS RESTRICTIONS IN BR TIL THE DRY AIR FLOWS
IN...PARTICULARLY THE OUTLYING TERMINALS.

MAINLY SSW FLOW TIL THIS EVE WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW THEN NW.
SPEED AND DIRECTION VARIABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED INVOF TSTMS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UPDATES TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS CAN
BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE IF STRONGER TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UPDATES TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS CAN
BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE IF STRONGER TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UPDATES TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS CAN
BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE IF STRONGER TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UPDATES TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS CAN
BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE IF STRONGER TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR MAY REMAIN ALL DAY. UPDATES TO TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE IF STRONGER
TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR MAY REMAIN ALL DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTN...VFR WITH W WINDS.
.SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH SW FLOW.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
BUFKIT EXHIBITS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH 25
KT GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS. WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY VERIFYING WITHIN
A FOOT OF BUOY OBS. THE OCEAN SEAS INCREASE TO 5 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SWELL. THE SCA SEAS LAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A RETURN TO
SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN
LATE MON INTO TUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PREVAILING
FLOW WILL BE S/SW DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF APPROXIMATELY 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR NYC AND
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. THERE
WILL ALSO THOUGH BE A POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING BUT EXPECT
THIS TO BE MORE ISOLATED.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 301716
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
116 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. MULTIPLE WEAK COLD FRONTS
OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NY/PA CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST. WIDESPREAD
STRATUS KEPT TEMPS DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO START TO CLIMB. INSTABILITY
LEVELS ARE CLIMBING...WITH 0-10 KM MU CAPE VALUES OVER 1500 J/KG
ACROSS THE CWA.

WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR NYC...MAINLY FOR THE HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS. TEMPS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING 90...BUT THE HIGH
HUMIDITY SHOULD MAKE UP FOR IT. WILL REEVALUATE WITH AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE TO DETERMINE IF IT CAN COME DOWN OR NOT. THE HEAT
INDEX IS JUST NOW AT 90 IN PARTS OF NYC...SO IT SHOULD NOT BE HARD
TO REACH 95 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

STORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS THAT FRONT TRACKS TO THE EAST.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THIS WILL DISSIPATE LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE BULK OF CONVECTION MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
WITH THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PIVOTS AROUND THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AS MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE NEXT AIRMASS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. A CONTINUED VERY WARM BUT NOW DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN. DEWPOINTS LOWER TO UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PERIOD WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NE QUARTER OF THE NATION. POLAR VORTEX DURING THIS
TIME DESCENDS FROM HUDSON BAY ON SAT SE INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE BY MID
WEEK. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL SEND WEAK COLD
FRONTS OR TROFS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT
CONVECTION. MDT INSTABILITY...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
SOME WIND SHEAR SUPPORTS ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE WITH A DEEP-LAYERED W/SW FLOW.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
OVERALL THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER THAN RECENT DAYS...SO A LITTLE
LESS HUMID. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE OVERDONE A BIT AS THE GFS IS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH A SHARPER TROF AND COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH LATE TUE. ECMWF/GGEM ARE CONSIDERABLY FLATTER AND WARMER.
SUBSEQUENT TENDS IN GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WILL BE WATCHED. GEFS SUPPORTS
WARMER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER PA WILL PASS THRU THE REGION TNGT.

SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS AFTN. THIS WAS HANDLED WITH
A VCTS IN THE TAFS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF TSTMS UPSTREAM CLOSER
TO THE FRONT WILL TRACK THRU AFT 19-20Z IN THE CITY. TEMPOS FOR
THESE IN THE TAFS.

GENERALLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT TIL AFT 00Z. MVFR OR
LOWER IN TSTMS.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TNGT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. THERE COULD BE
SOME RESIDUAL VIS RESTRICTIONS IN BR TIL THE DRY AIR FLOWS
IN...PARTICULARLY THE OUTLYING TERMINALS.

MAINLY SSW FLOW TIL THIS EVE WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW THEN NW.
SPEED AND DIRECTION VARIABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED INVOF TSTMS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UPDATES TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS CAN
BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE IF STRONGER TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UPDATES TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS CAN
BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE IF STRONGER TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UPDATES TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS CAN
BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE IF STRONGER TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UPDATES TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS CAN
BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE IF STRONGER TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR MAY REMAIN ALL DAY. UPDATES TO TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE IF STRONGER
TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR MAY REMAIN ALL DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTN...VFR WITH W WINDS.
.SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH SW FLOW.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
BUFKIT EXHIBITS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH 25
KT GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS. WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY VERIFYING WITHIN
A FOOT OF BUOY OBS. THE OCEAN SEAS INCREASE TO 5 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SWELL. THE SCA SEAS LAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A RETURN TO
SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN
LATE MON INTO TUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PREVAILING
FLOW WILL BE S/SW DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF APPROXIMATELY 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR NYC AND
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. THERE
WILL ALSO THOUGH BE A POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING BUT EXPECT
THIS TO BE MORE ISOLATED.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301449
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1049 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. MULTIPLE WEAK COLD FRONTS
OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK WAVE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS
ACROSS NYC AND IS TRACKING INTO LONG ISLAND. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...WOULD
EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP.

GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE
CONTINUES TO APPROACH WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
IT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION. PWATS
GROW UP TO NEAR 2-2.2 INCHES...ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WITH ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL
FURTHER DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND COLDER AIR ALOFT. MORE OF A CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT ARRIVES WITH A DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE NORTHEAST.

IN TERMS OF HAZARDS...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. HEAT INDICES
CAME CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES ELSEWHERE ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDORS OF
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AS WELL AS
SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTATION OF INCREASING
CLOUDS AND INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...KEPT
TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN OTHERWISE.

OVERALL THOUGH A HOT AND HUMID DAY AGAIN IN STORE. THIS WILL FUEL
THE CAPE WHICH WILL BE PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL...UP TO NEAR 2000 J/KG
MAINLY N/W OF NYC. MODELS ALSO SHOW 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING EXPANSIVE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE HEATING AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...IF THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE THAN FORECAST...MORE AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH HEAT
INDEX OF 100 DEGREES.

USED THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THIS WILL DISSIPATE LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE BULK OF CONVECTION MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
WITH THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PIVOTS AROUND THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AS MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE NEXT AIRMASS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. A CONTINUED VERY WARM BUT NOW DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN. DEWPOINTS LOWER TO UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PERIOD WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NE QUARTER OF THE NATION. POLAR VORTEX DURING THIS
TIME DESCENDS FROM HUDSON BAY ON SAT SE INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE BY MID
WEEK. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL SEND WEAK COLD
FRONTS OR TROFS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT
CONVECTION. MDT INSTABILITY...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
SOME WIND SHEAR SUPPORTS ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE WITH A DEEP-LAYERED W/SW FLOW.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
OVERALL THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER THAN RECENT DAYS...SO A LITTLE
LESS HUMID. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE OVERDONE A BIT AS THE GFS IS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH A SHARPER TROF AND COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH LATE TUE. ECMWF/GGEM ARE CONSIDERABLY FLATTER AND WARMER.
SUBSEQUENT TENDS IN GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WILL BE WATCHED. GEFS SUPPORTS
WARMER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES
AND WRN PA SLOWLY APPROACHES.

VFR STILL EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE 16-17Z PERIOD.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED INTO MID AFTN.

THE COLD FRONT AND A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
TERMINALS AROUND 19-21Z TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NYC
TERMINALS AND AREAS WEST. TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE 2-3 HOUR PERIOD
WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF TSTMS. ADJUSTMENTS POSSIBLE AS THE
SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER.

A PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TIL THE FRONT CLEARS OUT THE
LLVL MOISTURE.

VARIABILITY IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION LIKELY INVOF SHWRS AND
TSTMS. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR MAY LINGER BEYOND 16Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR MAY LINGER BEYOND 16Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR MAY LINGER BEYOND 16Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR MAY LINGER BEYOND 16Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR MAY LINGER BEYOND 16Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR MAY REMAIN ALL DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BUFKIT EXHIBITS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH 25
KT GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS. WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY VERIFYING WITHIN
A FOOT OF BUOY OBS. THE OCEAN SEAS INCREASE TO 5 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SWELL. THE SCA SEAS LAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A RETURN TO
SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN
LATE MON INTO TUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PREVAILING
FLOW WILL BE S/SW DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF APPROXIMATELY 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR NYC AND
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. THERE
WILL ALSO THOUGH BE A POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING BUT EXPECT
THIS TO BE MORE ISOLATED.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/MPS
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...24/JMC
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 301449
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1049 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. MULTIPLE WEAK COLD FRONTS
OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK WAVE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS
ACROSS NYC AND IS TRACKING INTO LONG ISLAND. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...WOULD
EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP.

GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE
CONTINUES TO APPROACH WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
IT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION. PWATS
GROW UP TO NEAR 2-2.2 INCHES...ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WITH ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL
FURTHER DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND COLDER AIR ALOFT. MORE OF A CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT ARRIVES WITH A DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE NORTHEAST.

IN TERMS OF HAZARDS...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. HEAT INDICES
CAME CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES ELSEWHERE ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDORS OF
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AS WELL AS
SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTATION OF INCREASING
CLOUDS AND INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...KEPT
TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN OTHERWISE.

OVERALL THOUGH A HOT AND HUMID DAY AGAIN IN STORE. THIS WILL FUEL
THE CAPE WHICH WILL BE PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL...UP TO NEAR 2000 J/KG
MAINLY N/W OF NYC. MODELS ALSO SHOW 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING EXPANSIVE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE HEATING AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...IF THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE THAN FORECAST...MORE AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH HEAT
INDEX OF 100 DEGREES.

USED THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THIS WILL DISSIPATE LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE BULK OF CONVECTION MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
WITH THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PIVOTS AROUND THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AS MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE NEXT AIRMASS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. A CONTINUED VERY WARM BUT NOW DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN. DEWPOINTS LOWER TO UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PERIOD WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NE QUARTER OF THE NATION. POLAR VORTEX DURING THIS
TIME DESCENDS FROM HUDSON BAY ON SAT SE INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE BY MID
WEEK. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL SEND WEAK COLD
FRONTS OR TROFS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT
CONVECTION. MDT INSTABILITY...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
SOME WIND SHEAR SUPPORTS ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE WITH A DEEP-LAYERED W/SW FLOW.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
OVERALL THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER THAN RECENT DAYS...SO A LITTLE
LESS HUMID. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE OVERDONE A BIT AS THE GFS IS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH A SHARPER TROF AND COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH LATE TUE. ECMWF/GGEM ARE CONSIDERABLY FLATTER AND WARMER.
SUBSEQUENT TENDS IN GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WILL BE WATCHED. GEFS SUPPORTS
WARMER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES
AND WRN PA SLOWLY APPROACHES.

VFR STILL EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE 16-17Z PERIOD.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED INTO MID AFTN.

THE COLD FRONT AND A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
TERMINALS AROUND 19-21Z TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NYC
TERMINALS AND AREAS WEST. TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE 2-3 HOUR PERIOD
WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF TSTMS. ADJUSTMENTS POSSIBLE AS THE
SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER.

A PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TIL THE FRONT CLEARS OUT THE
LLVL MOISTURE.

VARIABILITY IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION LIKELY INVOF SHWRS AND
TSTMS. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR MAY LINGER BEYOND 16Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR MAY LINGER BEYOND 16Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR MAY LINGER BEYOND 16Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR MAY LINGER BEYOND 16Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR MAY LINGER BEYOND 16Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR MAY REMAIN ALL DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BUFKIT EXHIBITS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH 25
KT GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS. WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY VERIFYING WITHIN
A FOOT OF BUOY OBS. THE OCEAN SEAS INCREASE TO 5 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SWELL. THE SCA SEAS LAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A RETURN TO
SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN
LATE MON INTO TUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PREVAILING
FLOW WILL BE S/SW DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF APPROXIMATELY 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR NYC AND
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. THERE
WILL ALSO THOUGH BE A POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING BUT EXPECT
THIS TO BE MORE ISOLATED.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/MPS
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...24/JMC
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301208
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
808 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. MULTIPLE WEAK COLD FRONTS
OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO POP
UP IN NORTH CENTRAL NJ. EXPECTING THESE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS
WELL.

THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BE APPROACHING TODAY WITH A
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE WARM
AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION. PWATS GROW UP TO NEAR 2-2.2
INCHES...ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL FURTHER DEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT. MORE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ARRIVES WITH A
DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE NORTHEAST.

IN TERMS OF HAZARDS...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. HEAT INDICES
CAME CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES ELSEWHERE ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDORS OF
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AS WELL AS
SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTATION OF INCREASING
CLOUDS AND INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...KEPT
TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN OTHERWISE.

OVERALL THOUGH A HOT AND HUMID DAY AGAIN IN STORE. THIS WILL FUEL
THE CAPE WHICH WILL BE PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL...UP TO NEAR 2000 J/KG
MAINLY N/W OF NYC. MODELS ALSO SHOW 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING EXPANSIVE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE HEATING AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...IF THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE THAN FORECAST...MORE AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH HEAT
INDEX OF 100 DEGREES.

USED THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THIS WILL DISSIPATE LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE BULK OF CONVECTION MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
WITH THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PIVOTS AROUND THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AS MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE NEXT AIRMASS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. A CONTINUED VERY WARM BUT NOW DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN. DEWPOINTS LOWER TO UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PERIOD WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NE QUARTER OF THE NATION. POLAR VORTEX DURING THIS
TIME DESCENDS FROM HUDSON BAY ON SAT SE INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE BY MID
WEEK. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL SEND WEAK COLD
FRONTS OR TROFS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT
CONVECTION. MDT INSTABILITY...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
SOME WIND SHEAR SUPPORTS ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE WITH A DEEP-LAYERED W/SW FLOW.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
OVERALL THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER THAN RECENT DAYS...SO A LITTLE
LESS HUMID. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE OVERDONE A BIT AS THE GFS IS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH A SHARPER TROF AND COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH LATE TUE. ECMWF/GGEM ARE CONSIDERABLY FLATTER AND WARMER.
SUBSEQUENT TENDS IN GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WILL BE WATCHED. GEFS SUPPORTS
WARMER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES
AND WRN PA SLOWLY APPROACHES.

PATCHY MVFR THRU 15Z OR SO...THEN VFR EXPECTED INTO MID AFTN. AREA
OF SHRA ENTERING THE NY METRO ATTM...WILL PASS E 13Z-14Z.

THE COLD FRONT AND A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
TERMINALS AROUND 18Z TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...OR POSSIBLY IFR IN STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NYC TERMINALS AND AREAS WEST. HAVE
ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE TWO HOUR PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF TSTMS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY.

HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY IN TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE. THIS WILL DROP VSBYS TO IFR OR
LOWER IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

MVFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH RESIDUAL/HIGH SFC MOISTURE.
DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AFT 06Z WITH VFR RETURNING.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE AFT 15Z. TIMING
OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE
MORNING/AFTN. TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BUFKIT EXHIBITS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH 25
KT GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS. WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY VERIFYING WITHIN
A FOOT OF BUOY OBS. THE OCEAN SEAS INCREASE TO 5 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SWELL. THE SCA SEAS LAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A RETURN TO
SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN
LATE MON INTO TUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PREVAILING
FLOW WILL BE S/SW DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF APPROXIMATELY 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR NYC AND
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. THERE
WILL ALSO THOUGH BE A POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING BUT EXPECT
THIS TO BE MORE ISOLATED.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301208
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
808 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. MULTIPLE WEAK COLD FRONTS
OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO POP
UP IN NORTH CENTRAL NJ. EXPECTING THESE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS
WELL.

THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BE APPROACHING TODAY WITH A
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE WARM
AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION. PWATS GROW UP TO NEAR 2-2.2
INCHES...ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL FURTHER DEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT. MORE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ARRIVES WITH A
DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE NORTHEAST.

IN TERMS OF HAZARDS...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. HEAT INDICES
CAME CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES ELSEWHERE ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDORS OF
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AS WELL AS
SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTATION OF INCREASING
CLOUDS AND INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...KEPT
TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN OTHERWISE.

OVERALL THOUGH A HOT AND HUMID DAY AGAIN IN STORE. THIS WILL FUEL
THE CAPE WHICH WILL BE PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL...UP TO NEAR 2000 J/KG
MAINLY N/W OF NYC. MODELS ALSO SHOW 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING EXPANSIVE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE HEATING AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...IF THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE THAN FORECAST...MORE AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH HEAT
INDEX OF 100 DEGREES.

USED THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THIS WILL DISSIPATE LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE BULK OF CONVECTION MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
WITH THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PIVOTS AROUND THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AS MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE NEXT AIRMASS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. A CONTINUED VERY WARM BUT NOW DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN. DEWPOINTS LOWER TO UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PERIOD WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NE QUARTER OF THE NATION. POLAR VORTEX DURING THIS
TIME DESCENDS FROM HUDSON BAY ON SAT SE INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE BY MID
WEEK. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL SEND WEAK COLD
FRONTS OR TROFS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT
CONVECTION. MDT INSTABILITY...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
SOME WIND SHEAR SUPPORTS ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE WITH A DEEP-LAYERED W/SW FLOW.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
OVERALL THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER THAN RECENT DAYS...SO A LITTLE
LESS HUMID. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE OVERDONE A BIT AS THE GFS IS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH A SHARPER TROF AND COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH LATE TUE. ECMWF/GGEM ARE CONSIDERABLY FLATTER AND WARMER.
SUBSEQUENT TENDS IN GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WILL BE WATCHED. GEFS SUPPORTS
WARMER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES
AND WRN PA SLOWLY APPROACHES.

PATCHY MVFR THRU 15Z OR SO...THEN VFR EXPECTED INTO MID AFTN. AREA
OF SHRA ENTERING THE NY METRO ATTM...WILL PASS E 13Z-14Z.

THE COLD FRONT AND A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
TERMINALS AROUND 18Z TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...OR POSSIBLY IFR IN STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NYC TERMINALS AND AREAS WEST. HAVE
ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE TWO HOUR PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF TSTMS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY.

HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY IN TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE. THIS WILL DROP VSBYS TO IFR OR
LOWER IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

MVFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH RESIDUAL/HIGH SFC MOISTURE.
DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AFT 06Z WITH VFR RETURNING.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE AFT 15Z. TIMING
OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE
MORNING/AFTN. TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BUFKIT EXHIBITS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH 25
KT GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS. WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY VERIFYING WITHIN
A FOOT OF BUOY OBS. THE OCEAN SEAS INCREASE TO 5 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SWELL. THE SCA SEAS LAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A RETURN TO
SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN
LATE MON INTO TUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PREVAILING
FLOW WILL BE S/SW DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF APPROXIMATELY 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR NYC AND
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. THERE
WILL ALSO THOUGH BE A POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING BUT EXPECT
THIS TO BE MORE ISOLATED.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 301208
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
808 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. MULTIPLE WEAK COLD FRONTS
OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO POP
UP IN NORTH CENTRAL NJ. EXPECTING THESE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS
WELL.

THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BE APPROACHING TODAY WITH A
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE WARM
AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION. PWATS GROW UP TO NEAR 2-2.2
INCHES...ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL FURTHER DEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT. MORE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ARRIVES WITH A
DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE NORTHEAST.

IN TERMS OF HAZARDS...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. HEAT INDICES
CAME CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES ELSEWHERE ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDORS OF
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AS WELL AS
SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTATION OF INCREASING
CLOUDS AND INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...KEPT
TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN OTHERWISE.

OVERALL THOUGH A HOT AND HUMID DAY AGAIN IN STORE. THIS WILL FUEL
THE CAPE WHICH WILL BE PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL...UP TO NEAR 2000 J/KG
MAINLY N/W OF NYC. MODELS ALSO SHOW 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING EXPANSIVE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE HEATING AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...IF THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE THAN FORECAST...MORE AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH HEAT
INDEX OF 100 DEGREES.

USED THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THIS WILL DISSIPATE LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE BULK OF CONVECTION MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
WITH THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PIVOTS AROUND THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AS MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE NEXT AIRMASS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. A CONTINUED VERY WARM BUT NOW DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN. DEWPOINTS LOWER TO UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PERIOD WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NE QUARTER OF THE NATION. POLAR VORTEX DURING THIS
TIME DESCENDS FROM HUDSON BAY ON SAT SE INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE BY MID
WEEK. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL SEND WEAK COLD
FRONTS OR TROFS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT
CONVECTION. MDT INSTABILITY...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
SOME WIND SHEAR SUPPORTS ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE WITH A DEEP-LAYERED W/SW FLOW.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
OVERALL THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER THAN RECENT DAYS...SO A LITTLE
LESS HUMID. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE OVERDONE A BIT AS THE GFS IS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH A SHARPER TROF AND COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH LATE TUE. ECMWF/GGEM ARE CONSIDERABLY FLATTER AND WARMER.
SUBSEQUENT TENDS IN GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WILL BE WATCHED. GEFS SUPPORTS
WARMER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES
AND WRN PA SLOWLY APPROACHES.

PATCHY MVFR THRU 15Z OR SO...THEN VFR EXPECTED INTO MID AFTN. AREA
OF SHRA ENTERING THE NY METRO ATTM...WILL PASS E 13Z-14Z.

THE COLD FRONT AND A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
TERMINALS AROUND 18Z TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...OR POSSIBLY IFR IN STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NYC TERMINALS AND AREAS WEST. HAVE
ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE TWO HOUR PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF TSTMS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY.

HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY IN TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE. THIS WILL DROP VSBYS TO IFR OR
LOWER IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

MVFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH RESIDUAL/HIGH SFC MOISTURE.
DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AFT 06Z WITH VFR RETURNING.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE AFT 15Z. TIMING
OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE
MORNING/AFTN. TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BUFKIT EXHIBITS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH 25
KT GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS. WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY VERIFYING WITHIN
A FOOT OF BUOY OBS. THE OCEAN SEAS INCREASE TO 5 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SWELL. THE SCA SEAS LAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A RETURN TO
SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN
LATE MON INTO TUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PREVAILING
FLOW WILL BE S/SW DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF APPROXIMATELY 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR NYC AND
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. THERE
WILL ALSO THOUGH BE A POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING BUT EXPECT
THIS TO BE MORE ISOLATED.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301208
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
808 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. MULTIPLE WEAK COLD FRONTS
OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO POP
UP IN NORTH CENTRAL NJ. EXPECTING THESE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS
WELL.

THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BE APPROACHING TODAY WITH A
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE WARM
AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION. PWATS GROW UP TO NEAR 2-2.2
INCHES...ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL FURTHER DEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT. MORE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ARRIVES WITH A
DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE NORTHEAST.

IN TERMS OF HAZARDS...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. HEAT INDICES
CAME CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES ELSEWHERE ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDORS OF
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AS WELL AS
SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTATION OF INCREASING
CLOUDS AND INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...KEPT
TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN OTHERWISE.

OVERALL THOUGH A HOT AND HUMID DAY AGAIN IN STORE. THIS WILL FUEL
THE CAPE WHICH WILL BE PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL...UP TO NEAR 2000 J/KG
MAINLY N/W OF NYC. MODELS ALSO SHOW 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING EXPANSIVE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE HEATING AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...IF THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE THAN FORECAST...MORE AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH HEAT
INDEX OF 100 DEGREES.

USED THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THIS WILL DISSIPATE LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE BULK OF CONVECTION MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
WITH THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PIVOTS AROUND THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AS MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE NEXT AIRMASS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. A CONTINUED VERY WARM BUT NOW DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN. DEWPOINTS LOWER TO UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PERIOD WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NE QUARTER OF THE NATION. POLAR VORTEX DURING THIS
TIME DESCENDS FROM HUDSON BAY ON SAT SE INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE BY MID
WEEK. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL SEND WEAK COLD
FRONTS OR TROFS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT
CONVECTION. MDT INSTABILITY...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
SOME WIND SHEAR SUPPORTS ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE WITH A DEEP-LAYERED W/SW FLOW.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
OVERALL THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER THAN RECENT DAYS...SO A LITTLE
LESS HUMID. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE OVERDONE A BIT AS THE GFS IS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH A SHARPER TROF AND COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH LATE TUE. ECMWF/GGEM ARE CONSIDERABLY FLATTER AND WARMER.
SUBSEQUENT TENDS IN GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WILL BE WATCHED. GEFS SUPPORTS
WARMER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES
AND WRN PA SLOWLY APPROACHES.

PATCHY MVFR THRU 15Z OR SO...THEN VFR EXPECTED INTO MID AFTN. AREA
OF SHRA ENTERING THE NY METRO ATTM...WILL PASS E 13Z-14Z.

THE COLD FRONT AND A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
TERMINALS AROUND 18Z TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...OR POSSIBLY IFR IN STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NYC TERMINALS AND AREAS WEST. HAVE
ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE TWO HOUR PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF TSTMS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY.

HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY IN TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE. THIS WILL DROP VSBYS TO IFR OR
LOWER IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

MVFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH RESIDUAL/HIGH SFC MOISTURE.
DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AFT 06Z WITH VFR RETURNING.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE AFT 15Z. TIMING
OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE
MORNING/AFTN. TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BUFKIT EXHIBITS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH 25
KT GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS. WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY VERIFYING WITHIN
A FOOT OF BUOY OBS. THE OCEAN SEAS INCREASE TO 5 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SWELL. THE SCA SEAS LAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A RETURN TO
SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN
LATE MON INTO TUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PREVAILING
FLOW WILL BE S/SW DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF APPROXIMATELY 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR NYC AND
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. THERE
WILL ALSO THOUGH BE A POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING BUT EXPECT
THIS TO BE MORE ISOLATED.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 301105
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
705 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. MULTIPLE WEAK COLD FRONTS
OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO POP
UP IN NORTH CENTRAL NJ. EXPECTING THESE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS
WELL.

THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BE APPROACHING TODAY WITH A
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE WARM
AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION. PWATS GROW UP TO NEAR 2-2.2
INCHES...ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL FURTHER DEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT. MORE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ARRIVES WITH A
DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE NORTHEAST.

IN TERMS OF HAZARDS...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. HEAT INDICES
CAME CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES ELSEWHERE ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDORS OF
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AS WELL AS
SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTATION OF INCREASING
CLOUDS AND INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...KEPT
TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN OTHERWISE.

OVERALL THOUGH A HOT AND HUMID DAY AGAIN IN STORE. THIS WILL FUEL
THE CAPE WHICH WILL BE PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL...UP TO NEAR 2000 J/KG
MAINLY N/W OF NYC. MODELS ALSO SHOW 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING EXPANSIVE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE HEATING AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...IF THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE THAN FORECAST...MORE AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH HEAT
INDEX OF 100 DEGREES.

USED THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THIS WILL DISSIPATE LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE BULK OF CONVECTION MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
WITH THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PIVOTS AROUND THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AS MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE NEXT AIRMASS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. A CONTINUED VERY WARM BUT NOW DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN. DEWPOINTS LOWER TO UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PERIOD WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NE QUARTER OF THE NATION. POLAR VORTEX DURING THIS
TIME DESCENDS FROM HUDSON BAY ON SAT SE INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE BY MID
WEEK. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL SEND WEAK COLD
FRONTS OR TROFS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT
CONVECTION. MDT INSTABILITY...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
SOME WIND SHEAR SUPPORTS ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE WITH A DEEP-LAYERED W/SW FLOW.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
OVERALL THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER THAN RECENT DAYS...SO A LITTLE
LESS HUMID. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE OVERDONE A BIT AS THE GFS IS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH A SHARPER TROF AND COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH LATE TUE. ECMWF/GGEM ARE CONSIDERABLY FLATTER AND WARMER.
SUBSEQUENT TENDS IN GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WILL BE WATCHED. GEFS SUPPORTS
WARMER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
OHIO SLOWLY APPROACHES.

GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH ISOLD MVFR POSSIBLE
IN DEVELOPING BR/HZ. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE INDICATING WDLY
SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/NRN NJ BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z AND TRACKING TO THE NE THROUGH 15Z OR SO. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH
AT MOST TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
SOMETHING ON RADAR BEFORE ADDING IT INTO PREVAILING OR TEMPO. A
FEW SHOWERS POPPED UP OVER THE PAST HOUR IN SE PA...BUT ARE
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ELY.

THE COLD FRONT AND A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
TERMINALS AROUND 18Z TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...OR POSSIBLY IFR IN STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NYC TERMINALS AND AREAS WEST. HAVE
ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE TWO HOUR PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF TSTMS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY.

HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY IN TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE. THIS WILL DROP VSBYS TO IFR OR
LOWER IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE AFT 15Z. TIMING
OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE
MORNING/AFTN. TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE CONDS IN FOG/HZ BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BUFKIT EXHIBITS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH 25
KT GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS. WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY VERIFYING WITHIN
A FOOT OF BUOY OBS. THE OCEAN SEAS INCREASE TO 5 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SWELL. THE SCA SEAS LAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A RETURN TO
SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN
LATE MON INTO TUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PREVAILING
FLOW WILL BE S/SW DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF APPROXIMATELY 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR NYC AND
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. THERE
WILL ALSO THOUGH BE A POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING BUT EXPECT
THIS TO BE MORE ISOLATED.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 301105
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
705 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. MULTIPLE WEAK COLD FRONTS
OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO POP
UP IN NORTH CENTRAL NJ. EXPECTING THESE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS
WELL.

THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BE APPROACHING TODAY WITH A
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE WARM
AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION. PWATS GROW UP TO NEAR 2-2.2
INCHES...ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL FURTHER DEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT. MORE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ARRIVES WITH A
DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE NORTHEAST.

IN TERMS OF HAZARDS...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. HEAT INDICES
CAME CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES ELSEWHERE ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDORS OF
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AS WELL AS
SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTATION OF INCREASING
CLOUDS AND INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...KEPT
TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN OTHERWISE.

OVERALL THOUGH A HOT AND HUMID DAY AGAIN IN STORE. THIS WILL FUEL
THE CAPE WHICH WILL BE PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL...UP TO NEAR 2000 J/KG
MAINLY N/W OF NYC. MODELS ALSO SHOW 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING EXPANSIVE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE HEATING AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...IF THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE THAN FORECAST...MORE AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH HEAT
INDEX OF 100 DEGREES.

USED THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THIS WILL DISSIPATE LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE BULK OF CONVECTION MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
WITH THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PIVOTS AROUND THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AS MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE NEXT AIRMASS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. A CONTINUED VERY WARM BUT NOW DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN. DEWPOINTS LOWER TO UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PERIOD WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NE QUARTER OF THE NATION. POLAR VORTEX DURING THIS
TIME DESCENDS FROM HUDSON BAY ON SAT SE INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE BY MID
WEEK. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL SEND WEAK COLD
FRONTS OR TROFS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT
CONVECTION. MDT INSTABILITY...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
SOME WIND SHEAR SUPPORTS ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE WITH A DEEP-LAYERED W/SW FLOW.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
OVERALL THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER THAN RECENT DAYS...SO A LITTLE
LESS HUMID. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE OVERDONE A BIT AS THE GFS IS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH A SHARPER TROF AND COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH LATE TUE. ECMWF/GGEM ARE CONSIDERABLY FLATTER AND WARMER.
SUBSEQUENT TENDS IN GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WILL BE WATCHED. GEFS SUPPORTS
WARMER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
OHIO SLOWLY APPROACHES.

GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH ISOLD MVFR POSSIBLE
IN DEVELOPING BR/HZ. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE INDICATING WDLY
SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/NRN NJ BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z AND TRACKING TO THE NE THROUGH 15Z OR SO. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH
AT MOST TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
SOMETHING ON RADAR BEFORE ADDING IT INTO PREVAILING OR TEMPO. A
FEW SHOWERS POPPED UP OVER THE PAST HOUR IN SE PA...BUT ARE
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ELY.

THE COLD FRONT AND A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
TERMINALS AROUND 18Z TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...OR POSSIBLY IFR IN STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NYC TERMINALS AND AREAS WEST. HAVE
ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE TWO HOUR PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF TSTMS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY.

HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY IN TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE. THIS WILL DROP VSBYS TO IFR OR
LOWER IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE AFT 15Z. TIMING
OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE
MORNING/AFTN. TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE CONDS IN FOG/HZ BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BUFKIT EXHIBITS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH 25
KT GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS. WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY VERIFYING WITHIN
A FOOT OF BUOY OBS. THE OCEAN SEAS INCREASE TO 5 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SWELL. THE SCA SEAS LAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A RETURN TO
SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN
LATE MON INTO TUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PREVAILING
FLOW WILL BE S/SW DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF APPROXIMATELY 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR NYC AND
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. THERE
WILL ALSO THOUGH BE A POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING BUT EXPECT
THIS TO BE MORE ISOLATED.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301105
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
705 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. MULTIPLE WEAK COLD FRONTS
OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO POP
UP IN NORTH CENTRAL NJ. EXPECTING THESE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS
WELL.

THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BE APPROACHING TODAY WITH A
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE WARM
AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION. PWATS GROW UP TO NEAR 2-2.2
INCHES...ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL FURTHER DEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT. MORE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ARRIVES WITH A
DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE NORTHEAST.

IN TERMS OF HAZARDS...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. HEAT INDICES
CAME CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES ELSEWHERE ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDORS OF
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AS WELL AS
SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTATION OF INCREASING
CLOUDS AND INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...KEPT
TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN OTHERWISE.

OVERALL THOUGH A HOT AND HUMID DAY AGAIN IN STORE. THIS WILL FUEL
THE CAPE WHICH WILL BE PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL...UP TO NEAR 2000 J/KG
MAINLY N/W OF NYC. MODELS ALSO SHOW 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING EXPANSIVE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE HEATING AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...IF THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE THAN FORECAST...MORE AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH HEAT
INDEX OF 100 DEGREES.

USED THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THIS WILL DISSIPATE LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE BULK OF CONVECTION MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
WITH THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PIVOTS AROUND THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AS MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE NEXT AIRMASS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. A CONTINUED VERY WARM BUT NOW DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN. DEWPOINTS LOWER TO UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PERIOD WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NE QUARTER OF THE NATION. POLAR VORTEX DURING THIS
TIME DESCENDS FROM HUDSON BAY ON SAT SE INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE BY MID
WEEK. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL SEND WEAK COLD
FRONTS OR TROFS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT
CONVECTION. MDT INSTABILITY...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
SOME WIND SHEAR SUPPORTS ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE WITH A DEEP-LAYERED W/SW FLOW.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
OVERALL THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER THAN RECENT DAYS...SO A LITTLE
LESS HUMID. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE OVERDONE A BIT AS THE GFS IS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH A SHARPER TROF AND COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH LATE TUE. ECMWF/GGEM ARE CONSIDERABLY FLATTER AND WARMER.
SUBSEQUENT TENDS IN GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WILL BE WATCHED. GEFS SUPPORTS
WARMER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
OHIO SLOWLY APPROACHES.

GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH ISOLD MVFR POSSIBLE
IN DEVELOPING BR/HZ. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE INDICATING WDLY
SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/NRN NJ BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z AND TRACKING TO THE NE THROUGH 15Z OR SO. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH
AT MOST TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
SOMETHING ON RADAR BEFORE ADDING IT INTO PREVAILING OR TEMPO. A
FEW SHOWERS POPPED UP OVER THE PAST HOUR IN SE PA...BUT ARE
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ELY.

THE COLD FRONT AND A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
TERMINALS AROUND 18Z TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...OR POSSIBLY IFR IN STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NYC TERMINALS AND AREAS WEST. HAVE
ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE TWO HOUR PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF TSTMS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY.

HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY IN TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE. THIS WILL DROP VSBYS TO IFR OR
LOWER IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE AFT 15Z. TIMING
OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE
MORNING/AFTN. TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE CONDS IN FOG/HZ BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BUFKIT EXHIBITS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH 25
KT GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS. WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY VERIFYING WITHIN
A FOOT OF BUOY OBS. THE OCEAN SEAS INCREASE TO 5 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SWELL. THE SCA SEAS LAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A RETURN TO
SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN
LATE MON INTO TUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PREVAILING
FLOW WILL BE S/SW DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF APPROXIMATELY 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR NYC AND
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. THERE
WILL ALSO THOUGH BE A POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING BUT EXPECT
THIS TO BE MORE ISOLATED.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 301105
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
705 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. MULTIPLE WEAK COLD FRONTS
OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO POP
UP IN NORTH CENTRAL NJ. EXPECTING THESE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS
WELL.

THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BE APPROACHING TODAY WITH A
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE WARM
AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION. PWATS GROW UP TO NEAR 2-2.2
INCHES...ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL FURTHER DEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT. MORE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ARRIVES WITH A
DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE NORTHEAST.

IN TERMS OF HAZARDS...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. HEAT INDICES
CAME CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES ELSEWHERE ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDORS OF
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AS WELL AS
SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTATION OF INCREASING
CLOUDS AND INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...KEPT
TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN OTHERWISE.

OVERALL THOUGH A HOT AND HUMID DAY AGAIN IN STORE. THIS WILL FUEL
THE CAPE WHICH WILL BE PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL...UP TO NEAR 2000 J/KG
MAINLY N/W OF NYC. MODELS ALSO SHOW 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING EXPANSIVE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE HEATING AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...IF THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE THAN FORECAST...MORE AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH HEAT
INDEX OF 100 DEGREES.

USED THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THIS WILL DISSIPATE LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE BULK OF CONVECTION MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
WITH THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PIVOTS AROUND THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AS MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE NEXT AIRMASS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. A CONTINUED VERY WARM BUT NOW DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN. DEWPOINTS LOWER TO UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PERIOD WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NE QUARTER OF THE NATION. POLAR VORTEX DURING THIS
TIME DESCENDS FROM HUDSON BAY ON SAT SE INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE BY MID
WEEK. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL SEND WEAK COLD
FRONTS OR TROFS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT
CONVECTION. MDT INSTABILITY...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
SOME WIND SHEAR SUPPORTS ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE WITH A DEEP-LAYERED W/SW FLOW.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
OVERALL THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER THAN RECENT DAYS...SO A LITTLE
LESS HUMID. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE OVERDONE A BIT AS THE GFS IS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH A SHARPER TROF AND COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH LATE TUE. ECMWF/GGEM ARE CONSIDERABLY FLATTER AND WARMER.
SUBSEQUENT TENDS IN GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WILL BE WATCHED. GEFS SUPPORTS
WARMER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
OHIO SLOWLY APPROACHES.

GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH ISOLD MVFR POSSIBLE
IN DEVELOPING BR/HZ. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE INDICATING WDLY
SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/NRN NJ BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z AND TRACKING TO THE NE THROUGH 15Z OR SO. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH
AT MOST TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
SOMETHING ON RADAR BEFORE ADDING IT INTO PREVAILING OR TEMPO. A
FEW SHOWERS POPPED UP OVER THE PAST HOUR IN SE PA...BUT ARE
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ELY.

THE COLD FRONT AND A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
TERMINALS AROUND 18Z TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...OR POSSIBLY IFR IN STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NYC TERMINALS AND AREAS WEST. HAVE
ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE TWO HOUR PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF TSTMS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY.

HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY IN TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE. THIS WILL DROP VSBYS TO IFR OR
LOWER IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE AFT 15Z. TIMING
OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE
MORNING/AFTN. TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE CONDS IN FOG/HZ BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BUFKIT EXHIBITS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH 25
KT GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS. WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY VERIFYING WITHIN
A FOOT OF BUOY OBS. THE OCEAN SEAS INCREASE TO 5 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SWELL. THE SCA SEAS LAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A RETURN TO
SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN
LATE MON INTO TUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PREVAILING
FLOW WILL BE S/SW DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF APPROXIMATELY 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR NYC AND
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. THERE
WILL ALSO THOUGH BE A POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING BUT EXPECT
THIS TO BE MORE ISOLATED.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 300835
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
435 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. MULTIPLE WEAK COLD FRONTS
OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BE APPROACHING TODAY WITH A
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE WARM
AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION. PWATS GROW UP TO NEAR 2-2.2
INCHES...ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL FURTHER DEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT. MORE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ARRIVES WITH A
DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE NORTHEAST.

IN TERMS OF HAZARDS...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. HEAT INDICES
CAME CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES ELSEWHERE ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDORS OF
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AS WELL AS
SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTATION OF INCREASING
CLOUDS AND INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...KEPT
TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN OTHERWISE.

OVERALL THOUGH A HOT AND HUMID DAY AGAIN IN STORE. THIS WILL FUEL
THE CAPE WHICH WILL BE PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL...UP TO NEAR 2000 J/KG
MAINLY N/W OF NYC. MODELS ALSO SHOW 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING EXPANSIVE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE HEATING AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...IF THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE THAN FORECAST...MORE AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH HEAT
INDEX OF 100 DEGREES.

USED THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THIS WILL DISSIPATE LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE BULK OF CONVECTION MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
WITH THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PIVOTS AROUND THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AS MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE NEXT AIRMASS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. A CONTINUED VERY WARM BUT NOW DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN. DEWPOINTS LOWER TO UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PERIOD WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NE QUARTER OF THE NATION. POLAR VORTEX DURING THIS
TIME DESCENDS FROM HUDSON BAY ON SAT SE INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE BY MID
WEEK. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL SEND WEAK COLD
FRONTS OR TROFS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT
CONVECTION. MDT INSTABILITY...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
SOME WIND SHEAR SUPPORTS ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE WITH A DEEP-LAYERED W/SW FLOW.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
OVERALL THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER THAN RECENT DAYS...SO A LITTLE
LESS HUMID. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE OVERDONE A BIT AS THE GFS IS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH A SHARPER TROF AND COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH LATE TUE. ECMWF/GGEM ARE CONSIDERABLY FLATTER AND WARMER.
SUBSEQUENT TENDS IN GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WILL BE WATCHED. GEFS SUPPORTS
WARMER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
OHIO SLOWLY APPROACHES.

GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH ISOLD MVFR POSSIBLE
IN DEVELOPING BR/HZ. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE INDICATING WDLY
SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/NRN NJ BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z AND TRACKING TO THE NE THROUGH 15Z OR SO. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH
AT MOST TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
SOMETHING ON RADAR BEFORE ADDING IT INTO PREVAILING OR TEMPO. A
FEW SHOWERS POPPED UP OVER THE PAST HOUR IN SE PA...BUT ARE
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ELY.

THE COLD FRONT AND A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
TERMINALS AROUND 18Z TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...OR POSSIBLY IFR IN STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NYC TERMINALS AND AREAS WEST. HAVE
ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE TWO HOUR PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF TSTMS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY.

HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY IN TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE. THIS WILL DROP VSBYS TO IFR OR
LOWER IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE AFT 15Z. TIMING
OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE
MORNING/AFTN. TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE CONDS IN FOG/HZ BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BUFKIT EXHIBITS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY VERIFYING WITHIN A FOOT OF BUOY OBS. THE OCEAN
SEAS INCREASE TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FETCH AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL. THE SCA SEAS LAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A RETURN TO SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN
LATE MON INTO TUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PREVAILING
FLOW WILL BE S/SW DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF APPROXIMATELY 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR NYC AND
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. THERE
WILL ALSO THOUGH BE A POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING BUT EXPECT
THIS TO BE MORE ISOLATED.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 300835
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
435 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. MULTIPLE WEAK COLD FRONTS
OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BE APPROACHING TODAY WITH A
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE WARM
AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION. PWATS GROW UP TO NEAR 2-2.2
INCHES...ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL FURTHER DEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT. MORE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ARRIVES WITH A
DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE NORTHEAST.

IN TERMS OF HAZARDS...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. HEAT INDICES
CAME CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES ELSEWHERE ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDORS OF
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AS WELL AS
SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTATION OF INCREASING
CLOUDS AND INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...KEPT
TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN OTHERWISE.

OVERALL THOUGH A HOT AND HUMID DAY AGAIN IN STORE. THIS WILL FUEL
THE CAPE WHICH WILL BE PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL...UP TO NEAR 2000 J/KG
MAINLY N/W OF NYC. MODELS ALSO SHOW 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING EXPANSIVE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE HEATING AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...IF THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE THAN FORECAST...MORE AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH HEAT
INDEX OF 100 DEGREES.

USED THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THIS WILL DISSIPATE LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE BULK OF CONVECTION MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
WITH THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PIVOTS AROUND THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AS MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE NEXT AIRMASS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. A CONTINUED VERY WARM BUT NOW DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN. DEWPOINTS LOWER TO UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PERIOD WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NE QUARTER OF THE NATION. POLAR VORTEX DURING THIS
TIME DESCENDS FROM HUDSON BAY ON SAT SE INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE BY MID
WEEK. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL SEND WEAK COLD
FRONTS OR TROFS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT
CONVECTION. MDT INSTABILITY...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
SOME WIND SHEAR SUPPORTS ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE WITH A DEEP-LAYERED W/SW FLOW.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
OVERALL THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER THAN RECENT DAYS...SO A LITTLE
LESS HUMID. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE OVERDONE A BIT AS THE GFS IS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH A SHARPER TROF AND COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH LATE TUE. ECMWF/GGEM ARE CONSIDERABLY FLATTER AND WARMER.
SUBSEQUENT TENDS IN GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WILL BE WATCHED. GEFS SUPPORTS
WARMER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
OHIO SLOWLY APPROACHES.

GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH ISOLD MVFR POSSIBLE
IN DEVELOPING BR/HZ. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE INDICATING WDLY
SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/NRN NJ BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z AND TRACKING TO THE NE THROUGH 15Z OR SO. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH
AT MOST TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
SOMETHING ON RADAR BEFORE ADDING IT INTO PREVAILING OR TEMPO. A
FEW SHOWERS POPPED UP OVER THE PAST HOUR IN SE PA...BUT ARE
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ELY.

THE COLD FRONT AND A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
TERMINALS AROUND 18Z TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...OR POSSIBLY IFR IN STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NYC TERMINALS AND AREAS WEST. HAVE
ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE TWO HOUR PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF TSTMS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY.

HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY IN TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE. THIS WILL DROP VSBYS TO IFR OR
LOWER IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE AFT 15Z. TIMING
OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE
MORNING/AFTN. TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
TIMING OF TSTMS MAY BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE CONDS IN FOG/HZ BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BUFKIT EXHIBITS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY VERIFYING WITHIN A FOOT OF BUOY OBS. THE OCEAN
SEAS INCREASE TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FETCH AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL. THE SCA SEAS LAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A RETURN TO SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN
LATE MON INTO TUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PREVAILING
FLOW WILL BE S/SW DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF APPROXIMATELY 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR NYC AND
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. THERE
WILL ALSO THOUGH BE A POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING BUT EXPECT
THIS TO BE MORE ISOLATED.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 300822
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
422 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. MULTIPLE WEAK COLD FRONTS
OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BE APPROACHING TODAY WITH A
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE WARM
AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION. PWATS GROW UP TO NEAR 2-2.2
INCHES...ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL FURTHER DEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT. MORE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ARRIVES WITH A
DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE NORTHEAST.

IN TERMS OF HAZARDS...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. HEAT INDICES
CAME CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES ELSEWHERE ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDORS OF
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AS WELL AS
SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTATION OF INCREASING
CLOUDS AND INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...KEPT
TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN OTHERWISE.

OVERALL THOUGH A HOT AND HUMID DAY AGAIN IN STORE. THIS WILL FUEL
THE CAPE WHICH WILL BE PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL...UP TO NEAR 2000 J/KG
MAINLY N/W OF NYC. MODELS ALSO SHOW 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING EXPANSIVE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE HEATING AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...IF THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE THAN FORECAST...MORE AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH HEAT
INDEX OF 100 DEGREES.

USED THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THIS WILL DISSIPATE LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE BULK OF CONVECTION MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
WITH THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PIVOTS AROUND THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AS MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE NEXT AIRMASS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. A CONTINUED VERY WARM BUT NOW DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN. DEWPOINTS LOWER TO UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PERIOD WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NE QUARTER OF THE NATION. POLAR VORTEX DURING THIS
TIME DESCENDS FROM HUDSON BAY ON SAT SE INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE BY MID
WEEK. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL SEND WEAK COLD
FRONTS OR TROFS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT
CONVECTION. MDT INSTABILITY...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
SOME WIND SHEAR SUPPORTS ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE WITH A DEEP-LAYERED W/SW FLOW.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
OVERALL THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER THAN RECENT DAYS...SO A LITTLE
LESS HUMID. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE OVERDONE A BIT AS THE GFS IS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH A SHARPER TROF AND COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH LATE TUE. ECMWF/GGEM ARE CONSIDERABLY FLATTER AND WARMER.
SUBSEQUENT TENDS IN GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WILL BE WATCHED. GEFS SUPPORTS
WARMER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
OHIO SLOWLY APPROACHES.

GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH ISOLD MVFR IN
FOG/HAZE DEVELOPING. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE INDICATING WDLY
SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/NRN NJ BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z AND TRACKING TO THE NE THROUGH 15Z OR SO. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH
AT MOST TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
SOMETHING ON RADAR BEFORE ADDING IT INTO PREVAILING OR TEMPO.

THE COLD FRONT AND A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE TERMINALS AROUND 18Z TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS...OR POSSIBLY IFR IN STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS A
HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NYC TERMINALS AND AREAS WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCES WITH A PROB GROUP.

HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY IN TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE. THIS WILL DROP VSBYS TO IFR OR
LOWER IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST...GUSTS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S POSSIBLE AT KJFK AS WELL AS OTHER COASTAL
TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN FOG/HZ BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BUFKIT EXHIBITS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY VERIFYING WITHIN A FOOT OF BUOY OBS. THE OCEAN
SEAS INCREASE TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FETCH AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL. THE SCA SEAS LAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A RETURN TO SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN
LATE MON INTO TUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PREVAILING
FLOW WILL BE S/SW DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF APPROXIMATELY 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR NYC AND
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. THERE
WILL ALSO THOUGH BE A POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING BUT EXPECT
THIS TO BE MORE ISOLATED.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 300621
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
221 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST OVERNIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS
TO BETTER REFLECT TRENDS IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA
MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. ADDED IN SOME
PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE LOWER
TEMP AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RESIDE.

A LARGE CONSENSUS OF BOTH SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS POINTING
TOWARDS SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND WEST OF NYC AFTER
08Z. POPS WERE LEFT AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NYC METRO MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL
BELOW 80 DEGREES.

CONVECTION IN PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS
LARGELY DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT AN ISO
SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COULD STILL SEE ISO TO WDLY SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NYC
METRO NORTH/WEST IN THE MORNING AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES...WITH SBCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SHEAR TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS...AND GIVEN A SW LLJ UP TO 35 KT AS FCST PER NAM...THESE
STORMS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SURVIVING AS THEY MOVE PAST NYC
METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO LONG ISLAND AND CT.
STRONGER CELLS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
DUMP LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PW INCREASES TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY...GENERALLY
85-90...BUT WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD
STILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...STILL REACHING THE MID 90S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS...SO
THE HEAT ADVY WILL CONTINUE FOR NYC.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE
SATURDAY...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. 12Z GFS DOES SEEM MORE POTENT AS
OPPOSED TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
INSTABILITY PRECEDING THE TROUGH...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...JET DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK...THOUGH LIFT WITH THE TROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE NIGHT LOOKS DECENT ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS.
HOWEVER...LIFT QUICKLY WEAKENS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLOWS ITS APPROACH AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN...SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MAINLY FOR EASTERN SECTIONS...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -2 DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LIFT BEING PROVIDED BY THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS ALSO AVAILABLE...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PW RANGING FROM 1.25-1.50...THOUGH
THEY ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
OHIO SLOWLY APPROACHES.

GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH ISOLD MVFR IN
FOG/HAZE DEVELOPING. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE INDICATING WDLY
SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/NRN NJ BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z AND TRACKING TO THE NE THROUGH 15Z OR SO. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH
AT MOST TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
SOMETHING ON RADAR BEFORE ADDING IT INTO PREVAILING OR TEMPO.

THE COLD FRONT AND A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE TERMINALS AROUND 18Z TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS...OR POSSIBLY IFR IN STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS A
HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NYC TERMINALS AND AREAS WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCES WITH A PROB GROUP.

HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY IN TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE. THIS WILL DROP VSBYS TO IFR OR
LOWER IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST...GUSTS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S POSSIBLE AT KJFK AS WELL AS OTHER COASTAL
TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN FOG/HZ BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET THROUGH THU MORNING. THEN AS SW FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT
WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...OCEAN SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT THU
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET PASSING OHD SHOULD MIX TO THE
SFC...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LIKELY ON THE OCEAN AND THE BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. SCA ISSUED FOR THESE HAZARDS. TSTMS WILL ALSO BE A
HAZARD WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF 5-FT OCEAN SEAS IS POSSIBLE FROM MON NIGHT INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND NE NJ...WITH UP TO 1/2 INCH ELSEWHERE. WITH PW OVER 2
INCHES THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JP
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JM/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN/DS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/JP
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JP





000
FXUS61 KOKX 300621
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
221 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST OVERNIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS
TO BETTER REFLECT TRENDS IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA
MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. ADDED IN SOME
PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE LOWER
TEMP AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RESIDE.

A LARGE CONSENSUS OF BOTH SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS POINTING
TOWARDS SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND WEST OF NYC AFTER
08Z. POPS WERE LEFT AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NYC METRO MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL
BELOW 80 DEGREES.

CONVECTION IN PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS
LARGELY DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT AN ISO
SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COULD STILL SEE ISO TO WDLY SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NYC
METRO NORTH/WEST IN THE MORNING AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES...WITH SBCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SHEAR TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS...AND GIVEN A SW LLJ UP TO 35 KT AS FCST PER NAM...THESE
STORMS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SURVIVING AS THEY MOVE PAST NYC
METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO LONG ISLAND AND CT.
STRONGER CELLS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
DUMP LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PW INCREASES TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY...GENERALLY
85-90...BUT WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD
STILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...STILL REACHING THE MID 90S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS...SO
THE HEAT ADVY WILL CONTINUE FOR NYC.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE
SATURDAY...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. 12Z GFS DOES SEEM MORE POTENT AS
OPPOSED TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
INSTABILITY PRECEDING THE TROUGH...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...JET DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK...THOUGH LIFT WITH THE TROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE NIGHT LOOKS DECENT ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS.
HOWEVER...LIFT QUICKLY WEAKENS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLOWS ITS APPROACH AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN...SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MAINLY FOR EASTERN SECTIONS...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -2 DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LIFT BEING PROVIDED BY THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS ALSO AVAILABLE...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PW RANGING FROM 1.25-1.50...THOUGH
THEY ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
OHIO SLOWLY APPROACHES.

GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH ISOLD MVFR IN
FOG/HAZE DEVELOPING. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE INDICATING WDLY
SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/NRN NJ BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z AND TRACKING TO THE NE THROUGH 15Z OR SO. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH
AT MOST TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
SOMETHING ON RADAR BEFORE ADDING IT INTO PREVAILING OR TEMPO.

THE COLD FRONT AND A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE TERMINALS AROUND 18Z TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS...OR POSSIBLY IFR IN STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS A
HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NYC TERMINALS AND AREAS WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCES WITH A PROB GROUP.

HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY IN TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE. THIS WILL DROP VSBYS TO IFR OR
LOWER IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST...GUSTS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S POSSIBLE AT KJFK AS WELL AS OTHER COASTAL
TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN FOG/HZ BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET THROUGH THU MORNING. THEN AS SW FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT
WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...OCEAN SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT THU
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET PASSING OHD SHOULD MIX TO THE
SFC...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LIKELY ON THE OCEAN AND THE BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. SCA ISSUED FOR THESE HAZARDS. TSTMS WILL ALSO BE A
HAZARD WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF 5-FT OCEAN SEAS IS POSSIBLE FROM MON NIGHT INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND NE NJ...WITH UP TO 1/2 INCH ELSEWHERE. WITH PW OVER 2
INCHES THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JP
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JM/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN/DS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/JP
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JP




000
FXUS61 KOKX 300621
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
221 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST OVERNIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS
TO BETTER REFLECT TRENDS IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA
MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. ADDED IN SOME
PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE LOWER
TEMP AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RESIDE.

A LARGE CONSENSUS OF BOTH SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS POINTING
TOWARDS SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND WEST OF NYC AFTER
08Z. POPS WERE LEFT AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NYC METRO MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL
BELOW 80 DEGREES.

CONVECTION IN PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS
LARGELY DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT AN ISO
SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COULD STILL SEE ISO TO WDLY SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NYC
METRO NORTH/WEST IN THE MORNING AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES...WITH SBCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SHEAR TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS...AND GIVEN A SW LLJ UP TO 35 KT AS FCST PER NAM...THESE
STORMS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SURVIVING AS THEY MOVE PAST NYC
METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO LONG ISLAND AND CT.
STRONGER CELLS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
DUMP LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PW INCREASES TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY...GENERALLY
85-90...BUT WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD
STILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...STILL REACHING THE MID 90S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS...SO
THE HEAT ADVY WILL CONTINUE FOR NYC.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE
SATURDAY...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. 12Z GFS DOES SEEM MORE POTENT AS
OPPOSED TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
INSTABILITY PRECEDING THE TROUGH...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...JET DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK...THOUGH LIFT WITH THE TROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE NIGHT LOOKS DECENT ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS.
HOWEVER...LIFT QUICKLY WEAKENS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLOWS ITS APPROACH AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN...SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MAINLY FOR EASTERN SECTIONS...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -2 DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LIFT BEING PROVIDED BY THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS ALSO AVAILABLE...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PW RANGING FROM 1.25-1.50...THOUGH
THEY ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
OHIO SLOWLY APPROACHES.

GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH ISOLD MVFR IN
FOG/HAZE DEVELOPING. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE INDICATING WDLY
SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/NRN NJ BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z AND TRACKING TO THE NE THROUGH 15Z OR SO. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH
AT MOST TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
SOMETHING ON RADAR BEFORE ADDING IT INTO PREVAILING OR TEMPO.

THE COLD FRONT AND A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE TERMINALS AROUND 18Z TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS...OR POSSIBLY IFR IN STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS A
HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NYC TERMINALS AND AREAS WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCES WITH A PROB GROUP.

HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY IN TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE. THIS WILL DROP VSBYS TO IFR OR
LOWER IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST...GUSTS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S POSSIBLE AT KJFK AS WELL AS OTHER COASTAL
TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN FOG/HZ BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET THROUGH THU MORNING. THEN AS SW FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT
WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...OCEAN SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT THU
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET PASSING OHD SHOULD MIX TO THE
SFC...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LIKELY ON THE OCEAN AND THE BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. SCA ISSUED FOR THESE HAZARDS. TSTMS WILL ALSO BE A
HAZARD WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF 5-FT OCEAN SEAS IS POSSIBLE FROM MON NIGHT INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND NE NJ...WITH UP TO 1/2 INCH ELSEWHERE. WITH PW OVER 2
INCHES THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JP
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JM/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN/DS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/JP
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JP




000
FXUS61 KOKX 300621
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
221 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST OVERNIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS
TO BETTER REFLECT TRENDS IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA
MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. ADDED IN SOME
PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE LOWER
TEMP AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RESIDE.

A LARGE CONSENSUS OF BOTH SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS POINTING
TOWARDS SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND WEST OF NYC AFTER
08Z. POPS WERE LEFT AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NYC METRO MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL
BELOW 80 DEGREES.

CONVECTION IN PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS
LARGELY DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT AN ISO
SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COULD STILL SEE ISO TO WDLY SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NYC
METRO NORTH/WEST IN THE MORNING AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES...WITH SBCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SHEAR TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS...AND GIVEN A SW LLJ UP TO 35 KT AS FCST PER NAM...THESE
STORMS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SURVIVING AS THEY MOVE PAST NYC
METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO LONG ISLAND AND CT.
STRONGER CELLS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
DUMP LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PW INCREASES TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY...GENERALLY
85-90...BUT WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD
STILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...STILL REACHING THE MID 90S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS...SO
THE HEAT ADVY WILL CONTINUE FOR NYC.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE
SATURDAY...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. 12Z GFS DOES SEEM MORE POTENT AS
OPPOSED TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
INSTABILITY PRECEDING THE TROUGH...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...JET DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK...THOUGH LIFT WITH THE TROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE NIGHT LOOKS DECENT ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS.
HOWEVER...LIFT QUICKLY WEAKENS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLOWS ITS APPROACH AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN...SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MAINLY FOR EASTERN SECTIONS...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -2 DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LIFT BEING PROVIDED BY THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS ALSO AVAILABLE...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PW RANGING FROM 1.25-1.50...THOUGH
THEY ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
OHIO SLOWLY APPROACHES.

GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH ISOLD MVFR IN
FOG/HAZE DEVELOPING. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE INDICATING WDLY
SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/NRN NJ BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z AND TRACKING TO THE NE THROUGH 15Z OR SO. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH
AT MOST TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
SOMETHING ON RADAR BEFORE ADDING IT INTO PREVAILING OR TEMPO.

THE COLD FRONT AND A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE TERMINALS AROUND 18Z TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS...OR POSSIBLY IFR IN STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS A
HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NYC TERMINALS AND AREAS WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCES WITH A PROB GROUP.

HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY IN TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE. THIS WILL DROP VSBYS TO IFR OR
LOWER IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST...GUSTS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S POSSIBLE AT KJFK AS WELL AS OTHER COASTAL
TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN FOG/HZ BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET THROUGH THU MORNING. THEN AS SW FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT
WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...OCEAN SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT THU
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET PASSING OHD SHOULD MIX TO THE
SFC...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LIKELY ON THE OCEAN AND THE BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. SCA ISSUED FOR THESE HAZARDS. TSTMS WILL ALSO BE A
HAZARD WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF 5-FT OCEAN SEAS IS POSSIBLE FROM MON NIGHT INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND NE NJ...WITH UP TO 1/2 INCH ELSEWHERE. WITH PW OVER 2
INCHES THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JP
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JM/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN/DS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/JP
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JP





000
FXUS61 KOKX 300519
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
119 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST OVERNIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS
TO BETTER REFLECT TRENDS IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA
MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. ADDED IN SOME
PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE LOWER
TEMP AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RESIDE.

A LARGE CONSENSUS OF BOTH SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS POINTING
TOWARDS SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND WEST OF NYC AFTER
08Z. POPS WERE LEFT AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NYC METRO MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL
BELOW 80 DEGREES.

CONVECTION IN PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS
LARGELY DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT AN ISO
SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COULD STILL SEE ISO TO WDLY SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NYC
METRO NORTH/WEST IN THE MORNING AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES...WITH SBCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SHEAR TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS...AND GIVEN A SW LLJ UP TO 35 KT AS FCST PER NAM...THESE
STORMS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SURVIVING AS THEY MOVE PAST NYC
METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO LONG ISLAND AND CT.
STRONGER CELLS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
DUMP LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PW INCREASES TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY...GENERALLY
85-90...BUT WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD
STILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...STILL REACHING THE MID 90S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS...SO
THE HEAT ADVY WILL CONTINUE FOR NYC.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE
SATURDAY...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. 12Z GFS DOES SEEM MORE POTENT AS
OPPOSED TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
INSTABILITY PRECEDING THE TROUGH...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...JET DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK...THOUGH LIFT WITH THE TROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE NIGHT LOOKS DECENT ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS.
HOWEVER...LIFT QUICKLY WEAKENS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLOWS ITS APPROACH AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN...SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MAINLY FOR EASTERN SECTIONS...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -2 DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LIFT BEING PROVIDED BY THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS ALSO AVAILABLE...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PW RANGING FROM 1.25-1.50...THOUGH
THEY ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
OHIO SLOWLY APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT AND A WEAK PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TERMINALS AROUND 18Z THURSDAY AND MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...OR POSSIBLY IFR IN
STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NYC
TERMINALS AND AREAS WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCES WITH
A PROB GROUP.

OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL TOWARD MORNING WHEN MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN FOG AND/OR HAZE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE
EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...THEN BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET THROUGH THU MORNING. THEN AS SW FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT
WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...OCEAN SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT THU
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET PASSING OHD SHOULD MIX TO THE
SFC...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LIKELY ON THE OCEAN AND THE BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. SCA ISSUED FOR THESE HAZARDS. TSTMS WILL ALSO BE A
HAZARD WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF 5-FT OCEAN SEAS IS POSSIBLE FROM MON NIGHT INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND NE NJ...WITH UP TO 1/2 INCH ELSEWHERE. WITH PW OVER 2
INCHES THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JP
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JM/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN/DS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...GOODMAN/JP
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JP




000
FXUS61 KOKX 300519
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
119 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST OVERNIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS
TO BETTER REFLECT TRENDS IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA
MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. ADDED IN SOME
PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE LOWER
TEMP AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RESIDE.

A LARGE CONSENSUS OF BOTH SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS POINTING
TOWARDS SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND WEST OF NYC AFTER
08Z. POPS WERE LEFT AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NYC METRO MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL
BELOW 80 DEGREES.

CONVECTION IN PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS
LARGELY DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT AN ISO
SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COULD STILL SEE ISO TO WDLY SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NYC
METRO NORTH/WEST IN THE MORNING AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES...WITH SBCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SHEAR TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS...AND GIVEN A SW LLJ UP TO 35 KT AS FCST PER NAM...THESE
STORMS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SURVIVING AS THEY MOVE PAST NYC
METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO LONG ISLAND AND CT.
STRONGER CELLS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
DUMP LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PW INCREASES TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY...GENERALLY
85-90...BUT WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD
STILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...STILL REACHING THE MID 90S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS...SO
THE HEAT ADVY WILL CONTINUE FOR NYC.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE
SATURDAY...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. 12Z GFS DOES SEEM MORE POTENT AS
OPPOSED TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
INSTABILITY PRECEDING THE TROUGH...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...JET DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK...THOUGH LIFT WITH THE TROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE NIGHT LOOKS DECENT ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS.
HOWEVER...LIFT QUICKLY WEAKENS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLOWS ITS APPROACH AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN...SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MAINLY FOR EASTERN SECTIONS...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -2 DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LIFT BEING PROVIDED BY THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS ALSO AVAILABLE...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PW RANGING FROM 1.25-1.50...THOUGH
THEY ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
OHIO SLOWLY APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT AND A WEAK PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TERMINALS AROUND 18Z THURSDAY AND MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...OR POSSIBLY IFR IN
STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NYC
TERMINALS AND AREAS WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCES WITH
A PROB GROUP.

OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL TOWARD MORNING WHEN MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN FOG AND/OR HAZE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE
EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...THEN BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET THROUGH THU MORNING. THEN AS SW FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT
WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...OCEAN SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT THU
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET PASSING OHD SHOULD MIX TO THE
SFC...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LIKELY ON THE OCEAN AND THE BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. SCA ISSUED FOR THESE HAZARDS. TSTMS WILL ALSO BE A
HAZARD WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF 5-FT OCEAN SEAS IS POSSIBLE FROM MON NIGHT INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND NE NJ...WITH UP TO 1/2 INCH ELSEWHERE. WITH PW OVER 2
INCHES THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JP
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JM/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN/DS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...GOODMAN/JP
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JP





000
FXUS61 KOKX 300519
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
119 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST OVERNIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS
TO BETTER REFLECT TRENDS IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA
MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. ADDED IN SOME
PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE LOWER
TEMP AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RESIDE.

A LARGE CONSENSUS OF BOTH SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS POINTING
TOWARDS SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND WEST OF NYC AFTER
08Z. POPS WERE LEFT AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NYC METRO MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL
BELOW 80 DEGREES.

CONVECTION IN PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS
LARGELY DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT AN ISO
SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COULD STILL SEE ISO TO WDLY SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NYC
METRO NORTH/WEST IN THE MORNING AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES...WITH SBCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SHEAR TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS...AND GIVEN A SW LLJ UP TO 35 KT AS FCST PER NAM...THESE
STORMS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SURVIVING AS THEY MOVE PAST NYC
METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO LONG ISLAND AND CT.
STRONGER CELLS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
DUMP LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PW INCREASES TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY...GENERALLY
85-90...BUT WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD
STILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...STILL REACHING THE MID 90S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS...SO
THE HEAT ADVY WILL CONTINUE FOR NYC.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE
SATURDAY...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. 12Z GFS DOES SEEM MORE POTENT AS
OPPOSED TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
INSTABILITY PRECEDING THE TROUGH...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...JET DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK...THOUGH LIFT WITH THE TROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE NIGHT LOOKS DECENT ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS.
HOWEVER...LIFT QUICKLY WEAKENS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLOWS ITS APPROACH AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN...SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MAINLY FOR EASTERN SECTIONS...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -2 DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LIFT BEING PROVIDED BY THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS ALSO AVAILABLE...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PW RANGING FROM 1.25-1.50...THOUGH
THEY ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
OHIO SLOWLY APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT AND A WEAK PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TERMINALS AROUND 18Z THURSDAY AND MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...OR POSSIBLY IFR IN
STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NYC
TERMINALS AND AREAS WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCES WITH
A PROB GROUP.

OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL TOWARD MORNING WHEN MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN FOG AND/OR HAZE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE
EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...THEN BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET THROUGH THU MORNING. THEN AS SW FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT
WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...OCEAN SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT THU
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET PASSING OHD SHOULD MIX TO THE
SFC...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LIKELY ON THE OCEAN AND THE BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. SCA ISSUED FOR THESE HAZARDS. TSTMS WILL ALSO BE A
HAZARD WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF 5-FT OCEAN SEAS IS POSSIBLE FROM MON NIGHT INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND NE NJ...WITH UP TO 1/2 INCH ELSEWHERE. WITH PW OVER 2
INCHES THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JP
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JM/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN/DS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...GOODMAN/JP
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JP




000
FXUS61 KOKX 300229
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1029 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT TRENDS IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA.

WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NYC METRO MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL
BELOW 80 DEGREES.

CONVECTION IN PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS
LARGELY DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF NYC AS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT AN
ISO SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY AS WELL AS THE
NEW 00Z NAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COULD STILL SEE ISO TO WDLY SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NYC
METRO NORTH/WEST IN THE MORNING AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES...WITH SBCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SHEAR TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS...AND GIVEN A SW LLJ UP TO 35 KT AS FCST PER NAM...THESE
STORMS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SURVIVING AS THEY MOVE PAST NYC
METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO LONG ISLAND AND CT.
STRONGER CELLS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
DUMP LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PW INCREASES TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY...GENERALLY
85-90...BUT WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD
STILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...STILL REACHING THE MID 90S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS...SO
THE HEAT ADVY WILL CONTINUE FOR NYC.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE
SATURDAY...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. 12Z GFS DOES SEEM MORE POTENT AS
OPPOSED TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
INSTABILITY PRECEDING THE TROUGH...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...JET DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK...THOUGH LIFT WITH THE TROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE NIGHT LOOKS DECENT ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS.
HOWEVER...LIFT QUICKLY WEAKENS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLOWS ITS APPROACH AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN...SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MAINLY FOR EASTERN SECTIONS...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -2 DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LIFT BEING PROVIDED BY THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS ALSO AVAILABLE...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PW RANGING FROM 1.25-1.50...THOUGH
THEY ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
OHIO SLOWLY APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT AND A WEAK PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TERMINALS AROUND 18Z THURSDAY AND MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...OR POSSIBLY IFR IN
STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NYC
TERMINALS AND AREAS WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCES WITH
A PROB GROUP.

OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL TOWARD MORNING WHEN MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN FOG AND/OR HAZE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE
EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...THEN BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET THROUGH THU MORNING. THEN AS SW FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT
WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...OCEAN SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT THU
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET PASSING OHD SHOULD MIX TO THE
SFC...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LIKELY ON THE OCEAN AND THE BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. SCA ISSUED FOR THESE HAZARDS. TSTMS WILL ALSO BE A
HAZARD WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF 5-FT OCEAN SEAS IS POSSIBLE FROM MON NIGHT INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND NE NJ...WITH UP TO 1/2 INCH ELSEWHERE. WITH PW OVER 2
INCHES THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-176-178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ340-
     345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JP
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN/DS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...GOODMAN/JP
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JP




000
FXUS61 KOKX 300229
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1029 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT TRENDS IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA.

WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NYC METRO MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL
BELOW 80 DEGREES.

CONVECTION IN PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS
LARGELY DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF NYC AS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT AN
ISO SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY AS WELL AS THE
NEW 00Z NAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COULD STILL SEE ISO TO WDLY SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NYC
METRO NORTH/WEST IN THE MORNING AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES...WITH SBCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SHEAR TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS...AND GIVEN A SW LLJ UP TO 35 KT AS FCST PER NAM...THESE
STORMS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SURVIVING AS THEY MOVE PAST NYC
METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO LONG ISLAND AND CT.
STRONGER CELLS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
DUMP LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PW INCREASES TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY...GENERALLY
85-90...BUT WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD
STILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...STILL REACHING THE MID 90S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS...SO
THE HEAT ADVY WILL CONTINUE FOR NYC.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE
SATURDAY...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. 12Z GFS DOES SEEM MORE POTENT AS
OPPOSED TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
INSTABILITY PRECEDING THE TROUGH...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...JET DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK...THOUGH LIFT WITH THE TROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE NIGHT LOOKS DECENT ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS.
HOWEVER...LIFT QUICKLY WEAKENS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLOWS ITS APPROACH AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN...SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MAINLY FOR EASTERN SECTIONS...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -2 DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LIFT BEING PROVIDED BY THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS ALSO AVAILABLE...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PW RANGING FROM 1.25-1.50...THOUGH
THEY ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
OHIO SLOWLY APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT AND A WEAK PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TERMINALS AROUND 18Z THURSDAY AND MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...OR POSSIBLY IFR IN
STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NYC
TERMINALS AND AREAS WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCES WITH
A PROB GROUP.

OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL TOWARD MORNING WHEN MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN FOG AND/OR HAZE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE
EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...THEN BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET THROUGH THU MORNING. THEN AS SW FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT
WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...OCEAN SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT THU
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET PASSING OHD SHOULD MIX TO THE
SFC...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LIKELY ON THE OCEAN AND THE BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. SCA ISSUED FOR THESE HAZARDS. TSTMS WILL ALSO BE A
HAZARD WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF 5-FT OCEAN SEAS IS POSSIBLE FROM MON NIGHT INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND NE NJ...WITH UP TO 1/2 INCH ELSEWHERE. WITH PW OVER 2
INCHES THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-176-178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ340-
     345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JP
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN/DS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...GOODMAN/JP
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JP





000
FXUS61 KOKX 300229
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1029 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT TRENDS IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA.

WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NYC METRO MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL
BELOW 80 DEGREES.

CONVECTION IN PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS
LARGELY DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF NYC AS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT AN
ISO SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY AS WELL AS THE
NEW 00Z NAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COULD STILL SEE ISO TO WDLY SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NYC
METRO NORTH/WEST IN THE MORNING AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES...WITH SBCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SHEAR TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS...AND GIVEN A SW LLJ UP TO 35 KT AS FCST PER NAM...THESE
STORMS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SURVIVING AS THEY MOVE PAST NYC
METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO LONG ISLAND AND CT.
STRONGER CELLS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
DUMP LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PW INCREASES TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY...GENERALLY
85-90...BUT WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD
STILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...STILL REACHING THE MID 90S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS...SO
THE HEAT ADVY WILL CONTINUE FOR NYC.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE
SATURDAY...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. 12Z GFS DOES SEEM MORE POTENT AS
OPPOSED TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
INSTABILITY PRECEDING THE TROUGH...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...JET DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK...THOUGH LIFT WITH THE TROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE NIGHT LOOKS DECENT ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS.
HOWEVER...LIFT QUICKLY WEAKENS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLOWS ITS APPROACH AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN...SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MAINLY FOR EASTERN SECTIONS...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -2 DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LIFT BEING PROVIDED BY THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS ALSO AVAILABLE...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PW RANGING FROM 1.25-1.50...THOUGH
THEY ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
OHIO SLOWLY APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT AND A WEAK PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TERMINALS AROUND 18Z THURSDAY AND MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...OR POSSIBLY IFR IN
STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NYC
TERMINALS AND AREAS WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCES WITH
A PROB GROUP.

OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL TOWARD MORNING WHEN MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN FOG AND/OR HAZE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE
EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...THEN BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET THROUGH THU MORNING. THEN AS SW FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT
WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...OCEAN SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT THU
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET PASSING OHD SHOULD MIX TO THE
SFC...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LIKELY ON THE OCEAN AND THE BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. SCA ISSUED FOR THESE HAZARDS. TSTMS WILL ALSO BE A
HAZARD WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF 5-FT OCEAN SEAS IS POSSIBLE FROM MON NIGHT INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND NE NJ...WITH UP TO 1/2 INCH ELSEWHERE. WITH PW OVER 2
INCHES THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-176-178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ340-
     345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JP
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN/DS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...GOODMAN/JP
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JP




000
FXUS61 KOKX 300229
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1029 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT TRENDS IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA.

WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NYC METRO MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL
BELOW 80 DEGREES.

CONVECTION IN PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS
LARGELY DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF NYC AS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT AN
ISO SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY AS WELL AS THE
NEW 00Z NAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COULD STILL SEE ISO TO WDLY SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NYC
METRO NORTH/WEST IN THE MORNING AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES...WITH SBCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SHEAR TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS...AND GIVEN A SW LLJ UP TO 35 KT AS FCST PER NAM...THESE
STORMS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SURVIVING AS THEY MOVE PAST NYC
METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO LONG ISLAND AND CT.
STRONGER CELLS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
DUMP LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PW INCREASES TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY...GENERALLY
85-90...BUT WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD
STILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...STILL REACHING THE MID 90S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS...SO
THE HEAT ADVY WILL CONTINUE FOR NYC.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE
SATURDAY...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. 12Z GFS DOES SEEM MORE POTENT AS
OPPOSED TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
INSTABILITY PRECEDING THE TROUGH...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...JET DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK...THOUGH LIFT WITH THE TROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE NIGHT LOOKS DECENT ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS.
HOWEVER...LIFT QUICKLY WEAKENS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLOWS ITS APPROACH AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN...SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MAINLY FOR EASTERN SECTIONS...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -2 DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LIFT BEING PROVIDED BY THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS ALSO AVAILABLE...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PW RANGING FROM 1.25-1.50...THOUGH
THEY ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
OHIO SLOWLY APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT AND A WEAK PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TERMINALS AROUND 18Z THURSDAY AND MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...OR POSSIBLY IFR IN
STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NYC
TERMINALS AND AREAS WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCES WITH
A PROB GROUP.

OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL TOWARD MORNING WHEN MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN FOG AND/OR HAZE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE
EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...THEN BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET THROUGH THU MORNING. THEN AS SW FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT
WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...OCEAN SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT THU
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET PASSING OHD SHOULD MIX TO THE
SFC...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LIKELY ON THE OCEAN AND THE BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. SCA ISSUED FOR THESE HAZARDS. TSTMS WILL ALSO BE A
HAZARD WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF 5-FT OCEAN SEAS IS POSSIBLE FROM MON NIGHT INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND NE NJ...WITH UP TO 1/2 INCH ELSEWHERE. WITH PW OVER 2
INCHES THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-176-178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ340-
     345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JP
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN/DS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...GOODMAN/JP
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JP





000
FXUS61 KOKX 292352
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
752 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST FOR A DRY...BUT WARM AND MUGGY EVENING REMAINS ON TRACK.
HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL TRENDS.

CONVECTION IN PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE CAPPED POPS
AT SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF NYC AS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT AN
ISO SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A TOUCH ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND...WITH LOWS IN THE
70S...REMAINING IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN NYC WITH SIMILAR HEAT
INDICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COULD STILL SEE ISO TO WDLY SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NYC
METRO NORTH/WEST IN THE MORNING AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES...WITH SBCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SHEAR TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS...AND GIVEN A SW LLJ UP TO 35 KT AS FCST PER NAM...THESE
STORMS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SURVIVING AS THEY MOVE PAST NYC
METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO LONG ISLAND AND CT.
STRONGER CELLS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
DUMP LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PW INCREASES TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY...GENERALLY
85-90...BUT WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD
STILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...STILL REACHING THE MID 90S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS...SO
THE HEAT ADVY WILL CONTINUE FOR NYC.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE
SATURDAY...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. 12Z GFS DOES SEEM MORE POTENT AS
OPPOSED TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
INSTABILITY PRECEDING THE TROUGH...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...JET DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK...THOUGH LIFT WITH THE TROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE NIGHT LOOKS DECENT ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS.
HOWEVER...LIFT QUICKLY WEAKENS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLOWS ITS APPROACH AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN...SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MAINLY FOR EASTERN SECTIONS...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -2 DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LIFT BEING PROVIDED BY THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS ALSO AVAILABLE...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PW RANGING FROM 1.25-1.50...THOUGH
THEY ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
OHIO SLOWLY APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT AND A WEAK PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TERMINALS AROUND 18Z THURSDAY AND MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH MVFR...OR POSSIBLY IFR IN STRONGER STORMS.
THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NYC TERMINALS AND
AREAS WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCES WITH A PROB GROUP.

OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL TOWARD MORNING WHEN MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN FOG AND/OR HAZE.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF MARGINAL CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FT
10Z TO 12Z THURSDAY IF FOG AND/OR HAZE DEVELOPS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF MARGINAL VISIBILITIES IN
FOG AFTER 09Z TO AROUND 12Z THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE,

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF MARGINAL CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FT
09Z TO 12Z THURSDAY IF FOG AND/OR HAZE DEVELOPS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF MARGINAL VISIBILITIES...AROUND
5SM...IN FOG AND/OR HAZE 10Z TO 12Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE
EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...THEN BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET THROUGH THU MORNING. THEN AS SW FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT
WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...OCEAN SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT THU
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET PASSING OHD SHOULD MIX TO THE
SFC...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LIKELY ON THE OCEAN AND THE BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. SCA ISSUED FOR THESE HAZARDS. TSTMS WILL ALSO BE A
HAZARD WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF 5-FT OCEAN SEAS IS POSSIBLE FROM MON NIGHT INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND NE NJ...WITH UP TO 1/2 INCH ELSEWHERE. WITH PW OVER 2
INCHES THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-176-178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ340-
     345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JP
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN/DS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...GOODMAN/JP
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JP





000
FXUS61 KOKX 292352
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
752 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST FOR A DRY...BUT WARM AND MUGGY EVENING REMAINS ON TRACK.
HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL TRENDS.

CONVECTION IN PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE CAPPED POPS
AT SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF NYC AS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT AN
ISO SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A TOUCH ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND...WITH LOWS IN THE
70S...REMAINING IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN NYC WITH SIMILAR HEAT
INDICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COULD STILL SEE ISO TO WDLY SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NYC
METRO NORTH/WEST IN THE MORNING AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES...WITH SBCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SHEAR TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS...AND GIVEN A SW LLJ UP TO 35 KT AS FCST PER NAM...THESE
STORMS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SURVIVING AS THEY MOVE PAST NYC
METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO LONG ISLAND AND CT.
STRONGER CELLS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
DUMP LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PW INCREASES TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY...GENERALLY
85-90...BUT WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD
STILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...STILL REACHING THE MID 90S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS...SO
THE HEAT ADVY WILL CONTINUE FOR NYC.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE
SATURDAY...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. 12Z GFS DOES SEEM MORE POTENT AS
OPPOSED TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
INSTABILITY PRECEDING THE TROUGH...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...JET DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK...THOUGH LIFT WITH THE TROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE NIGHT LOOKS DECENT ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS.
HOWEVER...LIFT QUICKLY WEAKENS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLOWS ITS APPROACH AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN...SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MAINLY FOR EASTERN SECTIONS...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -2 DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LIFT BEING PROVIDED BY THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS ALSO AVAILABLE...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PW RANGING FROM 1.25-1.50...THOUGH
THEY ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
OHIO SLOWLY APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT AND A WEAK PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TERMINALS AROUND 18Z THURSDAY AND MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH MVFR...OR POSSIBLY IFR IN STRONGER STORMS.
THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NYC TERMINALS AND
AREAS WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCES WITH A PROB GROUP.

OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL TOWARD MORNING WHEN MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN FOG AND/OR HAZE.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF MARGINAL CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FT
10Z TO 12Z THURSDAY IF FOG AND/OR HAZE DEVELOPS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF MARGINAL VISIBILITIES IN
FOG AFTER 09Z TO AROUND 12Z THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE,

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF MARGINAL CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FT
09Z TO 12Z THURSDAY IF FOG AND/OR HAZE DEVELOPS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF MARGINAL VISIBILITIES...AROUND
5SM...IN FOG AND/OR HAZE 10Z TO 12Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE
EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...THEN BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET THROUGH THU MORNING. THEN AS SW FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT
WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...OCEAN SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT THU
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET PASSING OHD SHOULD MIX TO THE
SFC...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LIKELY ON THE OCEAN AND THE BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. SCA ISSUED FOR THESE HAZARDS. TSTMS WILL ALSO BE A
HAZARD WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF 5-FT OCEAN SEAS IS POSSIBLE FROM MON NIGHT INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND NE NJ...WITH UP TO 1/2 INCH ELSEWHERE. WITH PW OVER 2
INCHES THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-176-178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ340-
     345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JP
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN/DS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...GOODMAN/JP
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JP




000
FXUS61 KOKX 292306
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
706 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST FOR A DRY...BUT WARM AND MUGGY EVENING REMAINS ON TRACK.
HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL TRENDS.

CONVECTION IN PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE CAPPED POPS
AT SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF NYC AS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT AN
ISO SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A TOUCH ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND...WITH LOWS IN THE
70S...REMAINING IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN NYC WITH SIMILAR HEAT
INDICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COULD STILL SEE ISO TO WDLY SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NYC
METRO NORTH/WEST IN THE MORNING AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES...WITH SBCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SHEAR TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS...AND GIVEN A SW LLJ UP TO 35 KT AS FCST PER NAM...THESE
STORMS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SURVIVING AS THEY MOVE PAST NYC
METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO LONG ISLAND AND CT.
STRONGER CELLS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
DUMP LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PW INCREASES TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY...GENERALLY
85-90...BUT WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD
STILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...STILL REACHING THE MID 90S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS...SO
THE HEAT ADVY WILL CONTINUE FOR NYC.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE
SATURDAY...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. 12Z GFS DOES SEEM MORE POTENT AS
OPPOSED TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
INSTABILITY PRECEDING THE TROUGH...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...JET DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK...THOUGH LIFT WITH THE TROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE NIGHT LOOKS DECENT ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS.
HOWEVER...LIFT QUICKLY WEAKENS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLOWS ITS APPROACH AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN...SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MAINLY FOR EASTERN SECTIONS...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -2 DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LIFT BEING PROVIDED BY THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS ALSO AVAILABLE...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PW RANGING FROM 1.25-1.50...THOUGH
THEY ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE WEST.

VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. MVFR VSBY IN FOG/HAZE TOWARD 12Z THU. LIKELY
SHRA/TSRA AFTER 17Z THU AT WESTERN TERMINALS AND AFTER 20Z FOR
EASTERN TERMINALS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS.
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TOWARDS
EVENING WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET THROUGH THU MORNING. THEN AS SW FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT
WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...OCEAN SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT THU
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET PASSING OHD SHOULD MIX TO THE
SFC...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LIKELY ON THE OCEAN AND THE BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. SCA ISSUED FOR THESE HAZARDS. TSTMS WILL ALSO BE A
HAZARD WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF 5-FT OCEAN SEAS IS POSSIBLE FROM MON NIGHT INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND NE NJ...WITH UP TO 1/2 INCH ELSEWHERE. WITH PW OVER 2
INCHES THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-176-178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ340-
     345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JP
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN/DS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JE/MET
MARINE...GOODMAN/JP
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JP





000
FXUS61 KOKX 292306
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
706 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST FOR A DRY...BUT WARM AND MUGGY EVENING REMAINS ON TRACK.
HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL TRENDS.

CONVECTION IN PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE CAPPED POPS
AT SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF NYC AS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT AN
ISO SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A TOUCH ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND...WITH LOWS IN THE
70S...REMAINING IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN NYC WITH SIMILAR HEAT
INDICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COULD STILL SEE ISO TO WDLY SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NYC
METRO NORTH/WEST IN THE MORNING AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES...WITH SBCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SHEAR TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS...AND GIVEN A SW LLJ UP TO 35 KT AS FCST PER NAM...THESE
STORMS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SURVIVING AS THEY MOVE PAST NYC
METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO LONG ISLAND AND CT.
STRONGER CELLS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
DUMP LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PW INCREASES TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY...GENERALLY
85-90...BUT WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD
STILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...STILL REACHING THE MID 90S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS...SO
THE HEAT ADVY WILL CONTINUE FOR NYC.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE
SATURDAY...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. 12Z GFS DOES SEEM MORE POTENT AS
OPPOSED TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
INSTABILITY PRECEDING THE TROUGH...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...JET DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK...THOUGH LIFT WITH THE TROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE NIGHT LOOKS DECENT ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS.
HOWEVER...LIFT QUICKLY WEAKENS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLOWS ITS APPROACH AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN...SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MAINLY FOR EASTERN SECTIONS...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -2 DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LIFT BEING PROVIDED BY THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS ALSO AVAILABLE...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PW RANGING FROM 1.25-1.50...THOUGH
THEY ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE WEST.

VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. MVFR VSBY IN FOG/HAZE TOWARD 12Z THU. LIKELY
SHRA/TSRA AFTER 17Z THU AT WESTERN TERMINALS AND AFTER 20Z FOR
EASTERN TERMINALS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS.
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TOWARDS
EVENING WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET THROUGH THU MORNING. THEN AS SW FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT
WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...OCEAN SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT THU
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET PASSING OHD SHOULD MIX TO THE
SFC...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LIKELY ON THE OCEAN AND THE BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. SCA ISSUED FOR THESE HAZARDS. TSTMS WILL ALSO BE A
HAZARD WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF 5-FT OCEAN SEAS IS POSSIBLE FROM MON NIGHT INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND NE NJ...WITH UP TO 1/2 INCH ELSEWHERE. WITH PW OVER 2
INCHES THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-176-178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ340-
     345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JP
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN/DS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JE/MET
MARINE...GOODMAN/JP
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JP




000
FXUS61 KOKX 292051
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
451 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD SHOWER THAT FORMED INVOF THE WFO ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT HAS
DISSIPATED...AND DO NOT EXPECT FURTHER ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING.
CONDS SHOULD BE DRY THIS EVENING...THEN WDLY SCT CONVECTION IN
PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ATTM SHOULD
MOVE INTO AREA FROM NYC WEST LATE TONIGHT WITH APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE PROVIDING LIFT.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A TOUCH ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND...WITH LOWS IN THE
70S...REMAINING IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN NYC WITH SIMILAR HEAT
INDICES.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING AT
THE OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COULD SEE WDLY SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST
IN THE MORNING AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES...WITH
SBCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT
AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS OR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS...AND GIVEN A
SW LLJ UP TO 35 KT AS FCST PER NAM...THESE STORMS HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF SURVIVING AS THEY MOVE PAST NYC METRO AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY INTO LONG ISLAND AND CT. STRONGER CELLS HAVE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND DUMP LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PW INCREASES TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY...GENERALLY
85-90...BUT WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD
STILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...STILL REACHING THE MID 90S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS...SO
THE HEAT ADVY WILL CONTINUE FOR NYC.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE
SATURDAY...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. 12Z GFS DOES SEEM MORE POTENT AS
OPPOSED TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
INSTABILITY PRECEDING THE TROUGH...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...JET DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK...THOUGH LIFT WITH THE TROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE NIGHT LOOKS DECENT ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS.
HOWEVER...LIFT QUICKLY WEAKENS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLOWS ITS APPROACH AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN...SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MAINLY FOR EASTERN SECTIONS...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -2 DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LIFT BEING PROVIDED BY THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS ALSO AVAILABLE...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PW RANGING FROM 1.25-1.50...THOUGH
THEY ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE WEST.

VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. MVFR VSBY IN FOG/HAZE TOWARD 12Z THU. LIKELY
SHRA/TSRA AFTER 17Z THU AT WESTERN TERMINALS AND AFTER 20Z FOR
EASTERN TERMINALS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS.
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TOWARDS
EVENING WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET THROUGH THU MORNING. THEN AS SW FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT
WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...OCEAN SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT THU
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET PASSING OHD SHOULD MIX TO THE
SFC...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LIKELY ON THE OCEAN AND THE BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. SCA ISSUED FOR THESE HAZARDS. TSTMS WILL ALSO BE A
HAZARD WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF 5-FT OCEAN SEAS IS POSSIBLE FROM MON NIGHT INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND NE NJ...WITH UP TO 1/2 INCH ELSEWHERE. WITH PW OVER 2
INCHES THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-176-178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ340-
     345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JM
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN/DS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JE/MET
MARINE...GOODMAN/JP
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JP





000
FXUS61 KOKX 292051
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
451 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD SHOWER THAT FORMED INVOF THE WFO ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT HAS
DISSIPATED...AND DO NOT EXPECT FURTHER ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING.
CONDS SHOULD BE DRY THIS EVENING...THEN WDLY SCT CONVECTION IN
PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ATTM SHOULD
MOVE INTO AREA FROM NYC WEST LATE TONIGHT WITH APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE PROVIDING LIFT.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A TOUCH ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND...WITH LOWS IN THE
70S...REMAINING IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN NYC WITH SIMILAR HEAT
INDICES.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING AT
THE OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COULD SEE WDLY SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST
IN THE MORNING AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES...WITH
SBCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT
AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS OR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS...AND GIVEN A
SW LLJ UP TO 35 KT AS FCST PER NAM...THESE STORMS HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF SURVIVING AS THEY MOVE PAST NYC METRO AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY INTO LONG ISLAND AND CT. STRONGER CELLS HAVE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND DUMP LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PW INCREASES TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY...GENERALLY
85-90...BUT WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD
STILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...STILL REACHING THE MID 90S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS...SO
THE HEAT ADVY WILL CONTINUE FOR NYC.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE
SATURDAY...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. 12Z GFS DOES SEEM MORE POTENT AS
OPPOSED TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
INSTABILITY PRECEDING THE TROUGH...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...JET DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK...THOUGH LIFT WITH THE TROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE NIGHT LOOKS DECENT ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS.
HOWEVER...LIFT QUICKLY WEAKENS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLOWS ITS APPROACH AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN...SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MAINLY FOR EASTERN SECTIONS...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -2 DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LIFT BEING PROVIDED BY THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS ALSO AVAILABLE...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PW RANGING FROM 1.25-1.50...THOUGH
THEY ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE WEST.

VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. MVFR VSBY IN FOG/HAZE TOWARD 12Z THU. LIKELY
SHRA/TSRA AFTER 17Z THU AT WESTERN TERMINALS AND AFTER 20Z FOR
EASTERN TERMINALS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS.
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TOWARDS
EVENING WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET THROUGH THU MORNING. THEN AS SW FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT
WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...OCEAN SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT THU
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET PASSING OHD SHOULD MIX TO THE
SFC...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LIKELY ON THE OCEAN AND THE BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. SCA ISSUED FOR THESE HAZARDS. TSTMS WILL ALSO BE A
HAZARD WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF 5-FT OCEAN SEAS IS POSSIBLE FROM MON NIGHT INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND NE NJ...WITH UP TO 1/2 INCH ELSEWHERE. WITH PW OVER 2
INCHES THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-176-178.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ340-
     345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JM
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN/DS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JE/MET
MARINE...GOODMAN/JP
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JP




000
FXUS61 KOKX 292027
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
427 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD SHOWER THAT FORMED INVOF THE WFO ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT HAS
DISSIPATED...AND DO NOT EXPECT FURTHER ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING.
CONDS SHOULD BE DRY THIS EVENING...THEN WDLY SCT CONVECTION IN
PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ATTM SHOULD
MOVE INTO AREA FROM NYC WEST LATE TONIGHT WITH APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE PROVIDING LIFT.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A TOUCH ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND...WITH LOWS IN THE
70S...REMAINING IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN NYC WITH SIMILAR HEAT
INDICES.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COULD SEE WDLY SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST
IN THE MORNING AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES...WITH
SBCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT
AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS OR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS...AND GIVEN A
SW LLJ UP TO 35 KT AS FCST PER NAM...THESE STORMS HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF SURVIVING AS THEY MOVE PAST NYC METRO AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY INTO LONG ISLAND AND CT. STRONGER CELLS HAVE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND DUMP LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PW INCREASES TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY...GENERALLY
85-90...BUT WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD
STILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...STILL REACHING THE MID 90S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS...SO
THE HEAT ADVY WILL CONTINUE FOR NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE
SATURDAY...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. 12Z GFS DOES SEEM MORE POTENT AS
OPPOSED TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
INSTABILITY PRECEDING THE TROUGH...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...JET DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK...THOUGH LIFT WITH THE TROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE NIGHT LOOKS DECENT ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS.
HOWEVER...LIFT QUICKLY WEAKENS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLOWS ITS APPROACH AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN...SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MAINLY FOR EASTERN SECTIONS...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -2 DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LIFT BEING PROVIDED BY THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS ALSO AVAILABLE...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PW RANGING FROM 1.25-1.50...THOUGH
THEY ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE WEST.

VFR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW / COASTAL SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z.

MVFR VSBY IN FOG/HAZE TOWARD 12Z THU. LIKELY SHRA/TSRA AFTER 17Z
THU AT WESTERN TERMINALS AND AFTER 20Z FOR EASTERN TERMINALS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 160-180 THIS AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 160-180 THIS AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 150-210 THIS AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 160-210 THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 160-200 THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU...EARLY MORNING HAZE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...THEN SCT
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
.FRI-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TOWARDS
EVENING WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.
&&

.MARINE...
QUIET THROUGH THU MORNING. THEN AS SW FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT
WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...OCEAN SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT THU
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET PASSING OHD SHOULD MIX TO THE
SFC...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LIKELY ON THE OCEAN AND THE BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. SCA ISSUED FOR THESE HAZARDS. TSTMS WILL ALSO BE A
HAZARD WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF 5-FT OCEAN SEAS IS POSSIBLE FROM MON NIGHT INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND NE NJ...WITH UP TO 1/2 INCH ELSEWHERE. WITH PW OVER 2
INCHES THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-176-178.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ340-
     345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JM
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...GOODMAN/JP
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JP





000
FXUS61 KOKX 292027
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
427 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD SHOWER THAT FORMED INVOF THE WFO ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT HAS
DISSIPATED...AND DO NOT EXPECT FURTHER ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING.
CONDS SHOULD BE DRY THIS EVENING...THEN WDLY SCT CONVECTION IN
PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ATTM SHOULD
MOVE INTO AREA FROM NYC WEST LATE TONIGHT WITH APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE PROVIDING LIFT.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A TOUCH ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND...WITH LOWS IN THE
70S...REMAINING IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN NYC WITH SIMILAR HEAT
INDICES.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COULD SEE WDLY SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST
IN THE MORNING AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES...WITH
SBCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT
AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS OR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS...AND GIVEN A
SW LLJ UP TO 35 KT AS FCST PER NAM...THESE STORMS HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF SURVIVING AS THEY MOVE PAST NYC METRO AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY INTO LONG ISLAND AND CT. STRONGER CELLS HAVE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND DUMP LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PW INCREASES TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY...GENERALLY
85-90...BUT WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD
STILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...STILL REACHING THE MID 90S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS...SO
THE HEAT ADVY WILL CONTINUE FOR NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE
SATURDAY...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. 12Z GFS DOES SEEM MORE POTENT AS
OPPOSED TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
INSTABILITY PRECEDING THE TROUGH...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...JET DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK...THOUGH LIFT WITH THE TROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE NIGHT LOOKS DECENT ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS.
HOWEVER...LIFT QUICKLY WEAKENS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLOWS ITS APPROACH AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN...SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MAINLY FOR EASTERN SECTIONS...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -2 DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LIFT BEING PROVIDED BY THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS ALSO AVAILABLE...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PW RANGING FROM 1.25-1.50...THOUGH
THEY ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE WEST.

VFR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW / COASTAL SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z.

MVFR VSBY IN FOG/HAZE TOWARD 12Z THU. LIKELY SHRA/TSRA AFTER 17Z
THU AT WESTERN TERMINALS AND AFTER 20Z FOR EASTERN TERMINALS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 160-180 THIS AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 160-180 THIS AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 150-210 THIS AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 160-210 THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 160-200 THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU...EARLY MORNING HAZE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...THEN SCT
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
.FRI-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TOWARDS
EVENING WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.
&&

.MARINE...
QUIET THROUGH THU MORNING. THEN AS SW FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT
WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...OCEAN SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT THU
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET PASSING OHD SHOULD MIX TO THE
SFC...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LIKELY ON THE OCEAN AND THE BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. SCA ISSUED FOR THESE HAZARDS. TSTMS WILL ALSO BE A
HAZARD WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF 5-FT OCEAN SEAS IS POSSIBLE FROM MON NIGHT INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND NE NJ...WITH UP TO 1/2 INCH ELSEWHERE. WITH PW OVER 2
INCHES THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-176-178.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ340-
     345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JM
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...GOODMAN/JP
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JP




000
FXUS61 KOKX 291559
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1159 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A SERIES
OF WEAKENING COLD FRONTS WILL APPROACH...THE FIRST DURING SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A DEEP LAYERED NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
CWA TODAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO BE AT A MINIMUM...OTHER THAN MAYBE
SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS...UNTIL SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO BUILD IN
FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST.

MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH HIGHS 90 TO 95...EXCEPT
85 TO 90 MID ON THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH SHORE OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S WILL YIELD MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID
AND UPPER 90S. HEAT ADVY CONTINUES FOR NYC.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE AN 06Z MAV/00Z MET BLEND.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP LAYERED NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING IN BEHIND IT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY RUN AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH...AND NOT TO FAR AHEAD OF ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE OF PRECIPITATION HAS LEAD TO
AN INCREASE OF POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALONG WITH THIS...HAVE ALSO PUT A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR
DETAILS ON AMOUNTS AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

HOWEVER...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING SOME WARMING IN THE
LAYER FROM AROUND 650-550 MB...HAVE KEPT THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDER TO CHANCE. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING OF
THE END OF PRECIPITATION...AND SO EXPECT IT TO COME TO AN END FROM
NW TO SE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE
EAST.

GENERALLY HAVE 1500-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE FORECAST OVER
ALL OF THE CWA BUT THE TWIN FORKS AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE
CT. WITH A BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT...FAVOR A COMBINATION OF
PULSE STORMS AND SOME MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AND/OR BOWING
SEGMENTS. WITH THE REGION FORECAST TO BE IN THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN AROUND 80 KT 250 MB JET...AND THE PASSING OF A
25-30 KT 950-850 JET NEAR/OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THERE IS SUFFICIENT FORCING TO GO ALONG WITH
THE CAPE AND SHEAR FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.
ACCORDINGLY SPC HAS EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO ENCOMPASS ALL BUT BASICALLY SOUTHERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY. WILL MAKE A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THIS FOR THE HWO...AND
HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT FOR ALL BUT EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY...NOTING THE LOWER CAPES THERE.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEG COOLER THAN THOSE OF
TODAY...BUT WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE
ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THOSE OF TODAY...STILL REACHING THE MID
AND UPPER 90S EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN COASTAL
SECTIONS...SO THE HEAT ADVY WILL CONTINUE FOR NYC.

LOWS THU NIGHT SHOULD STILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...NO SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE CHANGES
WITHIN THE REGION IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
JET STAYS MOSTLY NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH THE 250 MB HEIGHT
GRADIENT GRADUALLY DECREASING GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE 500 MB
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY STAY BETWEEN 576-582 DM MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. THE LOWEST HEIGHTS WILL BE MARKED BY THE THE PASSAGE
OF SHORTWAVES WITHIN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST.
THESE ARE SHOWN TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL
AS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE AT THE BASE
OF THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH. MUCH OF THE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION...LEAVING A VOID IN SYNOPTIC
FORCING OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKEWISE EXHIBIT SIMILAR TRENDS AT THE SURFACE
WITH OVERALL A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING. THE COLD FRONTS
APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR OTHER TIME PERIODS WITHIN THE LONG TERM. THE
FRONTS DISSIPATE WITHOUT MUCH CHANGE OF AIR MASS FOR THE REGION.

THEREFORE...THE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DUE TO TIMING AT NIGHT WITH LESS INSTABILITY AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR THIS SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE POPS ARE ALSO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO LARGER
UNCERTAINTY BUT WITH SOME MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH POTENTIALLY
FOR ANY CONVECTION DURING THE DAY.

THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND HUMID. MUCH OF THE
AREA HAS FORECAST HIGHS OF MID 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH FORECAST LOWS
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO STAY WELL
WITHIN THE 60S MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE WEST.

VFR. MOST TERMINALS WINDS COME FROM THE S/SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO AT LEAST 10 KT FOR COASTAL AIRPORTS. JFK
LIKELY TO GET UP TO 15 KT OR EVEN STRONGER WITH COASTAL JET FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON.

MVFR VSBY IN FOG/HAZE TOWARD 12Z THU. POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA AFTER
12Z THU AT 30H TAF SITES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 160-180 IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 160-180 IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 150-210 IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 160-210 IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 160-200 IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...EARLY MORNING HAZE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...THEN SCT
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
.FRI-SUNDAY...VFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...EARLY MORNING HAZE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...THEN SCT
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
.FRI-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TO MODERATE STRENGTH PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY KEEP
WINDS AT 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...COULD
SEE A COMBINATION OF THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND THE SEA BREEZE BRING WINDS TO 20 KT IN
THE NY BIGHT REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
THOUGH THAT ANY GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THIS REGION WILL BE OCCASIONAL
AT MOST. GIVEN THIS...AND CURRENT EXPECTATION OF NO SIGNIFICANT
SWELL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALSO.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS. THE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY UNTIL SOME HIGHER SEAS FROM
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY. OCEAN SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 5 TO 7 FT WITH THIS
FETCH...SO SCA POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.

AROUND 1/4-1/2 INCH OF BASIN AVG RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO
OVER 2 INCHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. IF THIS
OCCURS...THEN MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WOULD BE
POSSIBLE.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 29 2015...

LOCATION..........RECORD HIGH/YEAR.........FORECAST HIGH
NEWARK....................100/1949.................96
BRIDGEPORT.................96/2002.................93
CENTRAL PARK...............99/1949.................96
LAGUARDIA..................97/1949.................96
KENNEDY....................99/2002.................95
ISLIP......................96/2002.................92

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-176-178.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JM
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JM
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MALOIT/JM
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 291140
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
740 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING WITH ITS
ARRIVAL ON SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TOO
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MAIN HIGH
PRESSURE STAYING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE
STAYING IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. THERE WERE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE
TO FORECASTS OF TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND CLOUD COVERAGE TO
BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS. HIGHS WERE KEPT THE SAME AS BEFORE
JUST A MORE QUICK DIURNAL WARMING THIS MORNING WITH THE UPDATE.

A DEEP LAYERED NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
CWA TODAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO BE AT A MINIMUM...OTHER THAN MAYBE
SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS...UNTIL SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO BUILD IN
FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST.

MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH HIGHS MAINLY FROM AROUND
90 TO THE MID 90S...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 80S ON THE TWIN FORKS OF
LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE CT. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 THIS AFTERNOON WILL
PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S...WITH MID-UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
NYC METRO AND URBAN PORTIONS OF S CT. BASED ON THIS BEING THE
SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH HEAT INDICES OF 95-99 IN NYC...HAVE
CONTINUED THE HEAT ADVISORY THERE.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE BASED ON A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. READINGS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF
RIP CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP LAYERED NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING IN BEHIND IT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY RUN AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH...AND NOT TO FAR AHEAD OF ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE OF PRECIPITATION HAS LEAD TO
AN INCREASE OF POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALONG WITH THIS...HAVE ALSO PUT A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE
AFD FOR DETAILS ON AMOUNTS AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

HOWEVER...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING SOME WARMING IN THE
LAYER FROM AROUND 650-550 HPA...HAVE KEPT THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDER TO CHANCE. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING OF
THE END OF PRECIPITATION...AND SO EXPECT IT TO COME TO AN END FROM
NW TO SE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE
EAST.

GENERALLY HAVE 1500-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE FORECAST OVER
ALL OF THE CWA BUT THE TWIN FORKS AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE
CT. WITH A BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT...FAVOR A COMBINATION OF
PULSE STORMS AND SOME MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AND/OR BOWING
SEGMENTS. WITH THE REGION FORECAST TO BE IN THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN AROUND 80 KT 250 HPA JET...AND THE PASSING OF A
25-30 KT 950-850 JET NEAR/OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THERE IS SUFFICIENT FORCING TO GO ALONG WITH
THE CAPE AND SHEAR FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.
ACCORDINGLY SPC HAS EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO ENCOMPASS ALL BUT BASICALLY SOUTHERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY. WILL MAKE A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THIS FOR THE HWO...AND
HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT FOR ALL BUT EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY...NOTING THE LOWER CAPES THERE.

FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-825 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY...AS THE CORE OF THE WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES TO THE EAST WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS. FORECAST DEWPOINTS HOWEVER HAVE INCREASED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND NOW ARE AROUND 70-LOWER 70S. AS A RESULT
EXPECT HEAT INDICES MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH SOME MID 90S IN
NYC/URBAN NE NJ AND THE I-91 CORRIDOR N OF NEW HAVEN. ONLY HAVE A
FEW GRIDPOINTS OF HEAT INDICES OF 95 IN NYC PROPER...BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES WITH DEWPOINTS...AND THAT A CHANGE IN 1 DEGREE IN
TEMPERATURE AND/OR DEWPOINT MAKES A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN HEAT
INDEX...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR
NYC FOR THURSDAY.

FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...NO SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE CHANGES
WITHIN THE REGION IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
JET STAYS MOSTLY NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH THE 250MB HEIGHT
GRADIENT GRADUALLY DECREASING GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE 500MB HEIGHT
IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY STAY BETWEEN 5770M TO 5830M MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE LOWEST HEIGHTS WILL BE MARKED BY THE THE PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THESE ARE
SHOWN TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL AS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE AT THE BASE OF THIS
LONGWAVE TROUGH. MUCH OF THE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE
LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION...LEAVING A VOID IN SYNOPTIC FORCING
OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKEWISE EXHIBIT SIMILAR TRENDS AT THE SURFACE
WITH OVERALL A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING. THE COLD FRONTS
APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR OTHER TIME PERIODS WITHIN THE LONG TERM. THE
FRONTS DISSIPATE WITHOUT MUCH CHANGE OF AIRMASS FOR THE REGION.

THEREFORE...THE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DUE TO TIMING AT NIGHT WITH LESS INSTABILITY AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR THIS SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE POPS ARE ALSO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO LARGER
UNCERTAINTY BUT WITH SOME MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH POTENTIALLY
FOR ANY CONVECTION DURING THE DAY.

THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND HUMID. MUCH OF THE
AREA HAS FORECAST HIGHS OF MID 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH FORECAST LOWS MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO STAY WELL WITHIN THE
60S MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE WEST.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 5-10
KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM THE S/SW. SPEEDS INCREASE
TO AT LEAST 10 KT FOR COASTAL AIRPORTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. KJFK
LIKELY TO GET UP TO 15 KT OR EVEN STRONGER WITH COASTAL JET IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

MVFR VSBY IN FOG/HAZE TOWARD 12Z THU. POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA AFTER
12Z THU AT 30H TAF SITES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 160-180 IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF SOUTH WINDS MAY VARY BY
1-2 HOURS...AND DIRECTION MAY VARY 160-180.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 180-210 IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 180-210 IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 170-200 IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...EARLY MORNING HAZE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...THEN SCT
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
.FRI-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TO MODERATE STRENGTH PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY KEEP
WINDS AT 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...COULD
SEE A COMBINATION OF THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND THE SEABREEZE BRING WINDS TO 20 KT IN
THE NY BIGHT REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
THOUGH THAT ANY GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THIS REGION WILL BE OCCASIONAL
AT MOST. GIVEN THIS...AND CURRENT EXPECTATION OF NO SIGNIFICANT
SWELL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALSO.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS. THE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY UNTIL SOME HIGHER SEAS FROM
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY. OCEAN SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 5 TO 7 FT WITH THIS
FETCH...SO SCA POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.

AROUND 1/4-1/2 INCH OF BASIN AVG RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO
OVER 2 INCHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. IF THIS
OCCURS...THEN MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WOULD BE
POSSIBLE.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 29 2015...

LOCATION..........RECORD HIGH/YEAR.........FORECAST HIGH
NEWARK....................100/1949.................96
BRIDGEPORT.................96/2002.................90
CENTRAL PARK...............99/1949.................94
LAGUARDIA..................97/1949.................95
KENNEDY....................99/2002.................91
ISLIP......................96/2002.................91

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-176-178.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JM
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JM
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MALOIT/JM
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 291140
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
740 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING WITH ITS
ARRIVAL ON SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TOO
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MAIN HIGH
PRESSURE STAYING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE
STAYING IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. THERE WERE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE
TO FORECASTS OF TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND CLOUD COVERAGE TO
BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS. HIGHS WERE KEPT THE SAME AS BEFORE
JUST A MORE QUICK DIURNAL WARMING THIS MORNING WITH THE UPDATE.

A DEEP LAYERED NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
CWA TODAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO BE AT A MINIMUM...OTHER THAN MAYBE
SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS...UNTIL SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO BUILD IN
FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST.

MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH HIGHS MAINLY FROM AROUND
90 TO THE MID 90S...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 80S ON THE TWIN FORKS OF
LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE CT. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 THIS AFTERNOON WILL
PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S...WITH MID-UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
NYC METRO AND URBAN PORTIONS OF S CT. BASED ON THIS BEING THE
SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH HEAT INDICES OF 95-99 IN NYC...HAVE
CONTINUED THE HEAT ADVISORY THERE.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE BASED ON A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. READINGS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF
RIP CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP LAYERED NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING IN BEHIND IT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY RUN AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH...AND NOT TO FAR AHEAD OF ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE OF PRECIPITATION HAS LEAD TO
AN INCREASE OF POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALONG WITH THIS...HAVE ALSO PUT A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE
AFD FOR DETAILS ON AMOUNTS AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

HOWEVER...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING SOME WARMING IN THE
LAYER FROM AROUND 650-550 HPA...HAVE KEPT THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDER TO CHANCE. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING OF
THE END OF PRECIPITATION...AND SO EXPECT IT TO COME TO AN END FROM
NW TO SE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE
EAST.

GENERALLY HAVE 1500-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE FORECAST OVER
ALL OF THE CWA BUT THE TWIN FORKS AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE
CT. WITH A BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT...FAVOR A COMBINATION OF
PULSE STORMS AND SOME MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AND/OR BOWING
SEGMENTS. WITH THE REGION FORECAST TO BE IN THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN AROUND 80 KT 250 HPA JET...AND THE PASSING OF A
25-30 KT 950-850 JET NEAR/OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THERE IS SUFFICIENT FORCING TO GO ALONG WITH
THE CAPE AND SHEAR FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.
ACCORDINGLY SPC HAS EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO ENCOMPASS ALL BUT BASICALLY SOUTHERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY. WILL MAKE A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THIS FOR THE HWO...AND
HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT FOR ALL BUT EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY...NOTING THE LOWER CAPES THERE.

FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-825 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY...AS THE CORE OF THE WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES TO THE EAST WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS. FORECAST DEWPOINTS HOWEVER HAVE INCREASED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND NOW ARE AROUND 70-LOWER 70S. AS A RESULT
EXPECT HEAT INDICES MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH SOME MID 90S IN
NYC/URBAN NE NJ AND THE I-91 CORRIDOR N OF NEW HAVEN. ONLY HAVE A
FEW GRIDPOINTS OF HEAT INDICES OF 95 IN NYC PROPER...BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES WITH DEWPOINTS...AND THAT A CHANGE IN 1 DEGREE IN
TEMPERATURE AND/OR DEWPOINT MAKES A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN HEAT
INDEX...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR
NYC FOR THURSDAY.

FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...NO SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE CHANGES
WITHIN THE REGION IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
JET STAYS MOSTLY NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH THE 250MB HEIGHT
GRADIENT GRADUALLY DECREASING GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE 500MB HEIGHT
IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY STAY BETWEEN 5770M TO 5830M MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE LOWEST HEIGHTS WILL BE MARKED BY THE THE PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THESE ARE
SHOWN TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL AS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE AT THE BASE OF THIS
LONGWAVE TROUGH. MUCH OF THE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE
LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION...LEAVING A VOID IN SYNOPTIC FORCING
OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKEWISE EXHIBIT SIMILAR TRENDS AT THE SURFACE
WITH OVERALL A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING. THE COLD FRONTS
APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR OTHER TIME PERIODS WITHIN THE LONG TERM. THE
FRONTS DISSIPATE WITHOUT MUCH CHANGE OF AIRMASS FOR THE REGION.

THEREFORE...THE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DUE TO TIMING AT NIGHT WITH LESS INSTABILITY AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR THIS SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE POPS ARE ALSO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO LARGER
UNCERTAINTY BUT WITH SOME MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH POTENTIALLY
FOR ANY CONVECTION DURING THE DAY.

THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND HUMID. MUCH OF THE
AREA HAS FORECAST HIGHS OF MID 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH FORECAST LOWS MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO STAY WELL WITHIN THE
60S MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE WEST.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 5-10
KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM THE S/SW. SPEEDS INCREASE
TO AT LEAST 10 KT FOR COASTAL AIRPORTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. KJFK
LIKELY TO GET UP TO 15 KT OR EVEN STRONGER WITH COASTAL JET IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

MVFR VSBY IN FOG/HAZE TOWARD 12Z THU. POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA AFTER
12Z THU AT 30H TAF SITES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 160-180 IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF SOUTH WINDS MAY VARY BY
1-2 HOURS...AND DIRECTION MAY VARY 160-180.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 180-210 IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 180-210 IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 170-200 IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...EARLY MORNING HAZE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...THEN SCT
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
.FRI-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TO MODERATE STRENGTH PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY KEEP
WINDS AT 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...COULD
SEE A COMBINATION OF THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND THE SEABREEZE BRING WINDS TO 20 KT IN
THE NY BIGHT REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
THOUGH THAT ANY GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THIS REGION WILL BE OCCASIONAL
AT MOST. GIVEN THIS...AND CURRENT EXPECTATION OF NO SIGNIFICANT
SWELL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALSO.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS. THE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY UNTIL SOME HIGHER SEAS FROM
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY. OCEAN SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 5 TO 7 FT WITH THIS
FETCH...SO SCA POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.

AROUND 1/4-1/2 INCH OF BASIN AVG RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO
OVER 2 INCHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. IF THIS
OCCURS...THEN MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WOULD BE
POSSIBLE.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 29 2015...

LOCATION..........RECORD HIGH/YEAR.........FORECAST HIGH
NEWARK....................100/1949.................96
BRIDGEPORT.................96/2002.................90
CENTRAL PARK...............99/1949.................94
LAGUARDIA..................97/1949.................95
KENNEDY....................99/2002.................91
ISLIP......................96/2002.................91

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-176-178.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JM
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JM
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MALOIT/JM
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JM
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 291140
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
740 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING WITH ITS
ARRIVAL ON SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TOO
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MAIN HIGH
PRESSURE STAYING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE
STAYING IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. THERE WERE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE
TO FORECASTS OF TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND CLOUD COVERAGE TO
BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS. HIGHS WERE KEPT THE SAME AS BEFORE
JUST A MORE QUICK DIURNAL WARMING THIS MORNING WITH THE UPDATE.

A DEEP LAYERED NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
CWA TODAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO BE AT A MINIMUM...OTHER THAN MAYBE
SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS...UNTIL SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO BUILD IN
FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST.

MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH HIGHS MAINLY FROM AROUND
90 TO THE MID 90S...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 80S ON THE TWIN FORKS OF
LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE CT. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 THIS AFTERNOON WILL
PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S...WITH MID-UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
NYC METRO AND URBAN PORTIONS OF S CT. BASED ON THIS BEING THE
SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH HEAT INDICES OF 95-99 IN NYC...HAVE
CONTINUED THE HEAT ADVISORY THERE.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE BASED ON A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. READINGS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF
RIP CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP LAYERED NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING IN BEHIND IT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY RUN AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH...AND NOT TO FAR AHEAD OF ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE OF PRECIPITATION HAS LEAD TO
AN INCREASE OF POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALONG WITH THIS...HAVE ALSO PUT A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE
AFD FOR DETAILS ON AMOUNTS AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

HOWEVER...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING SOME WARMING IN THE
LAYER FROM AROUND 650-550 HPA...HAVE KEPT THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDER TO CHANCE. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING OF
THE END OF PRECIPITATION...AND SO EXPECT IT TO COME TO AN END FROM
NW TO SE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE
EAST.

GENERALLY HAVE 1500-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE FORECAST OVER
ALL OF THE CWA BUT THE TWIN FORKS AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE
CT. WITH A BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT...FAVOR A COMBINATION OF
PULSE STORMS AND SOME MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AND/OR BOWING
SEGMENTS. WITH THE REGION FORECAST TO BE IN THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN AROUND 80 KT 250 HPA JET...AND THE PASSING OF A
25-30 KT 950-850 JET NEAR/OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THERE IS SUFFICIENT FORCING TO GO ALONG WITH
THE CAPE AND SHEAR FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.
ACCORDINGLY SPC HAS EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO ENCOMPASS ALL BUT BASICALLY SOUTHERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY. WILL MAKE A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THIS FOR THE HWO...AND
HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT FOR ALL BUT EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY...NOTING THE LOWER CAPES THERE.

FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-825 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY...AS THE CORE OF THE WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES TO THE EAST WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS. FORECAST DEWPOINTS HOWEVER HAVE INCREASED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND NOW ARE AROUND 70-LOWER 70S. AS A RESULT
EXPECT HEAT INDICES MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH SOME MID 90S IN
NYC/URBAN NE NJ AND THE I-91 CORRIDOR N OF NEW HAVEN. ONLY HAVE A
FEW GRIDPOINTS OF HEAT INDICES OF 95 IN NYC PROPER...BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES WITH DEWPOINTS...AND THAT A CHANGE IN 1 DEGREE IN
TEMPERATURE AND/OR DEWPOINT MAKES A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN HEAT
INDEX...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR
NYC FOR THURSDAY.

FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...NO SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE CHANGES
WITHIN THE REGION IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
JET STAYS MOSTLY NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH THE 250MB HEIGHT
GRADIENT GRADUALLY DECREASING GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE 500MB HEIGHT
IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY STAY BETWEEN 5770M TO 5830M MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE LOWEST HEIGHTS WILL BE MARKED BY THE THE PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THESE ARE
SHOWN TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL AS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE AT THE BASE OF THIS
LONGWAVE TROUGH. MUCH OF THE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE
LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION...LEAVING A VOID IN SYNOPTIC FORCING
OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKEWISE EXHIBIT SIMILAR TRENDS AT THE SURFACE
WITH OVERALL A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING. THE COLD FRONTS
APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR OTHER TIME PERIODS WITHIN THE LONG TERM. THE
FRONTS DISSIPATE WITHOUT MUCH CHANGE OF AIRMASS FOR THE REGION.

THEREFORE...THE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DUE TO TIMING AT NIGHT WITH LESS INSTABILITY AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR THIS SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE POPS ARE ALSO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO LARGER
UNCERTAINTY BUT WITH SOME MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH POTENTIALLY
FOR ANY CONVECTION DURING THE DAY.

THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND HUMID. MUCH OF THE
AREA HAS FORECAST HIGHS OF MID 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH FORECAST LOWS MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO STAY WELL WITHIN THE
60S MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE WEST.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 5-10
KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM THE S/SW. SPEEDS INCREASE
TO AT LEAST 10 KT FOR COASTAL AIRPORTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. KJFK
LIKELY TO GET UP TO 15 KT OR EVEN STRONGER WITH COASTAL JET IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

MVFR VSBY IN FOG/HAZE TOWARD 12Z THU. POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA AFTER
12Z THU AT 30H TAF SITES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 160-180 IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF SOUTH WINDS MAY VARY BY
1-2 HOURS...AND DIRECTION MAY VARY 160-180.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 180-210 IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 180-210 IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 170-200 IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...EARLY MORNING HAZE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...THEN SCT
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
.FRI-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TO MODERATE STRENGTH PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY KEEP
WINDS AT 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...COULD
SEE A COMBINATION OF THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND THE SEABREEZE BRING WINDS TO 20 KT IN
THE NY BIGHT REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
THOUGH THAT ANY GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THIS REGION WILL BE OCCASIONAL
AT MOST. GIVEN THIS...AND CURRENT EXPECTATION OF NO SIGNIFICANT
SWELL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALSO.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS. THE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY UNTIL SOME HIGHER SEAS FROM
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY. OCEAN SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 5 TO 7 FT WITH THIS
FETCH...SO SCA POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.

AROUND 1/4-1/2 INCH OF BASIN AVG RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO
OVER 2 INCHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. IF THIS
OCCURS...THEN MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WOULD BE
POSSIBLE.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 29 2015...

LOCATION..........RECORD HIGH/YEAR.........FORECAST HIGH
NEWARK....................100/1949.................96
BRIDGEPORT.................96/2002.................90
CENTRAL PARK...............99/1949.................94
LAGUARDIA..................97/1949.................95
KENNEDY....................99/2002.................91
ISLIP......................96/2002.................91

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-176-178.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JM
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JM
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MALOIT/JM
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JM
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 291140
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
740 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING WITH ITS
ARRIVAL ON SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TOO
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MAIN HIGH
PRESSURE STAYING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE
STAYING IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. THERE WERE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE
TO FORECASTS OF TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND CLOUD COVERAGE TO
BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS. HIGHS WERE KEPT THE SAME AS BEFORE
JUST A MORE QUICK DIURNAL WARMING THIS MORNING WITH THE UPDATE.

A DEEP LAYERED NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
CWA TODAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO BE AT A MINIMUM...OTHER THAN MAYBE
SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS...UNTIL SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO BUILD IN
FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST.

MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH HIGHS MAINLY FROM AROUND
90 TO THE MID 90S...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 80S ON THE TWIN FORKS OF
LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE CT. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 THIS AFTERNOON WILL
PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S...WITH MID-UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
NYC METRO AND URBAN PORTIONS OF S CT. BASED ON THIS BEING THE
SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH HEAT INDICES OF 95-99 IN NYC...HAVE
CONTINUED THE HEAT ADVISORY THERE.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE BASED ON A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. READINGS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF
RIP CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP LAYERED NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING IN BEHIND IT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY RUN AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH...AND NOT TO FAR AHEAD OF ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE OF PRECIPITATION HAS LEAD TO
AN INCREASE OF POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALONG WITH THIS...HAVE ALSO PUT A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE
AFD FOR DETAILS ON AMOUNTS AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

HOWEVER...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING SOME WARMING IN THE
LAYER FROM AROUND 650-550 HPA...HAVE KEPT THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDER TO CHANCE. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING OF
THE END OF PRECIPITATION...AND SO EXPECT IT TO COME TO AN END FROM
NW TO SE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE
EAST.

GENERALLY HAVE 1500-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE FORECAST OVER
ALL OF THE CWA BUT THE TWIN FORKS AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE
CT. WITH A BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT...FAVOR A COMBINATION OF
PULSE STORMS AND SOME MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AND/OR BOWING
SEGMENTS. WITH THE REGION FORECAST TO BE IN THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN AROUND 80 KT 250 HPA JET...AND THE PASSING OF A
25-30 KT 950-850 JET NEAR/OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THERE IS SUFFICIENT FORCING TO GO ALONG WITH
THE CAPE AND SHEAR FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.
ACCORDINGLY SPC HAS EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO ENCOMPASS ALL BUT BASICALLY SOUTHERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY. WILL MAKE A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THIS FOR THE HWO...AND
HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT FOR ALL BUT EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY...NOTING THE LOWER CAPES THERE.

FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-825 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY...AS THE CORE OF THE WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES TO THE EAST WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS. FORECAST DEWPOINTS HOWEVER HAVE INCREASED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND NOW ARE AROUND 70-LOWER 70S. AS A RESULT
EXPECT HEAT INDICES MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH SOME MID 90S IN
NYC/URBAN NE NJ AND THE I-91 CORRIDOR N OF NEW HAVEN. ONLY HAVE A
FEW GRIDPOINTS OF HEAT INDICES OF 95 IN NYC PROPER...BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES WITH DEWPOINTS...AND THAT A CHANGE IN 1 DEGREE IN
TEMPERATURE AND/OR DEWPOINT MAKES A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN HEAT
INDEX...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR
NYC FOR THURSDAY.

FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...NO SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE CHANGES
WITHIN THE REGION IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
JET STAYS MOSTLY NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH THE 250MB HEIGHT
GRADIENT GRADUALLY DECREASING GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE 500MB HEIGHT
IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY STAY BETWEEN 5770M TO 5830M MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE LOWEST HEIGHTS WILL BE MARKED BY THE THE PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THESE ARE
SHOWN TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL AS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE AT THE BASE OF THIS
LONGWAVE TROUGH. MUCH OF THE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE
LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION...LEAVING A VOID IN SYNOPTIC FORCING
OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKEWISE EXHIBIT SIMILAR TRENDS AT THE SURFACE
WITH OVERALL A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING. THE COLD FRONTS
APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR OTHER TIME PERIODS WITHIN THE LONG TERM. THE
FRONTS DISSIPATE WITHOUT MUCH CHANGE OF AIRMASS FOR THE REGION.

THEREFORE...THE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DUE TO TIMING AT NIGHT WITH LESS INSTABILITY AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR THIS SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE POPS ARE ALSO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO LARGER
UNCERTAINTY BUT WITH SOME MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH POTENTIALLY
FOR ANY CONVECTION DURING THE DAY.

THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND HUMID. MUCH OF THE
AREA HAS FORECAST HIGHS OF MID 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH FORECAST LOWS MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO STAY WELL WITHIN THE
60S MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE WEST.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 5-10
KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM THE S/SW. SPEEDS INCREASE
TO AT LEAST 10 KT FOR COASTAL AIRPORTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. KJFK
LIKELY TO GET UP TO 15 KT OR EVEN STRONGER WITH COASTAL JET IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

MVFR VSBY IN FOG/HAZE TOWARD 12Z THU. POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA AFTER
12Z THU AT 30H TAF SITES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 160-180 IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF SOUTH WINDS MAY VARY BY
1-2 HOURS...AND DIRECTION MAY VARY 160-180.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 180-210 IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 180-210 IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 170-200 IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...EARLY MORNING HAZE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...THEN SCT
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
.FRI-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TO MODERATE STRENGTH PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY KEEP
WINDS AT 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...COULD
SEE A COMBINATION OF THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND THE SEABREEZE BRING WINDS TO 20 KT IN
THE NY BIGHT REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
THOUGH THAT ANY GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THIS REGION WILL BE OCCASIONAL
AT MOST. GIVEN THIS...AND CURRENT EXPECTATION OF NO SIGNIFICANT
SWELL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALSO.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS. THE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY UNTIL SOME HIGHER SEAS FROM
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY. OCEAN SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 5 TO 7 FT WITH THIS
FETCH...SO SCA POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.

AROUND 1/4-1/2 INCH OF BASIN AVG RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO
OVER 2 INCHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. IF THIS
OCCURS...THEN MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WOULD BE
POSSIBLE.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 29 2015...

LOCATION..........RECORD HIGH/YEAR.........FORECAST HIGH
NEWARK....................100/1949.................96
BRIDGEPORT.................96/2002.................90
CENTRAL PARK...............99/1949.................94
LAGUARDIA..................97/1949.................95
KENNEDY....................99/2002.................91
ISLIP......................96/2002.................91

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-176-178.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JM
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JM
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MALOIT/JM
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JM
CLIMATE...




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