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000
FXUS61 KOKX 200000
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
800 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND REMAINS NEAR THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. A SERIES
OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
WITH WINDS OFF THE COLD OCEAN...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S AND LOW 50S AFTER SUNSET. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL SEND A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...LOWER...AND THICKEN
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
OFFSHORE.

RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z WHEN GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MOVE
INTO WESTERN ZONES. LATEST HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS.
EXPECT RAIN TO BREAK OUT AFTER 06Z...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA THROUGH DAY BREAK. AS LIFT AND MOISTURE
INCREASE...RAINFALL RATES WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AS WELL.

A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL RIDE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL LIKELY
FALL BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.50 INCHES...NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MAKING FOR A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE. RAINFALL WILL BECOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. LOW LEVEL
JET WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AIDING IN ENHANCED LIFT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE IN EARLY AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPEST MOISTURE
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. NO FLASH FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THE WARM FRONT MAY STRUGGLE TO COMPLETELY MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION. IT IS LIKELY TO HANG JUST SOUTH OR OVER LONG ISLAND
IN THE AFTERNOON. IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY EVENING OR MONDAY
NIGHT THAT THE WARM FRONT BRIEFLY MOVES THROUGH AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. INCREASING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS DEPICTED BY THERMODYNAMIC SOUNDINGS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...SO CONTINUING TO MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THIS WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH.

STRONG ESE-SE WINDS ARE NEAR THE COAST...20 TO 25 SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALOFT...THE MERGING OF THE CLOSED LOW WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES TO A POSITION JUST
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY WED.

AT THE SURFACE...MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...
MOVING TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AID IN DRYING THE ATMOSPHERE OUT. SFC LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CANADA NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES WED LATE IN THE DAY.

THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE.

ANY MORNING CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLEARING
TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW PICKS UP. STATISTICAL NAM/GFS MOS SUGGEST
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 TUESDAY. THIS SEEMS TO AGREE
WITH EXPECTED TEMPS ALOFT (CAA) AND EXPECTED MIXING LEVELS.

THEREAFTER...THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS AS THE SFC LOW REMAINS LOCATED WELL
TO THE NORTH. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS TO THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM ENERGY THAT EJECTS OUT OF THE SW
UNITED STATES. TIMING AND POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE GFS
AND ECMWF. WOULD NOT EXPECT THIS LOW TO MAKE MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS
THOUGH GIVEN UPPER PATTERN AND PESKY STACKED LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

AS MENTIONED...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY CAN BE
EXPECTED. THEN AS HEIGHTS LOWER AND THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE SLOW MOVING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FOLLOWED WPC AND GRIDDED
MOS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WHICH SEEMS CLOSE TO 12Z MEX
NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE WARM FRONT NEARS THE
TERMINALS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND MAY MOVE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
THAT THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

CONDITIONS START AT VFR AND QUICKLY LOWER TO MARGINAL VFR AND THEN
IFR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...08Z TO 13Z...AS RAIN
DEVELOPS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OF LOWERING AND
MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR SO. ONCE CONDITIONS DO LOWER TO IFR...IFR TO
LIFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

WIND E TO SE 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AND INCREASES TO
AROUND 20 KT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. WIND AND GUSTS
DIMINISH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE GUSTS POTENTIALLY ENDING
TOWARD 00Z. LLWS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING WITH 2000 FT WIND 50 TO 60 KT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND AND GUST FORECAST WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN THE LLWS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER. AN ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE 00Z TO 06Z.
.TUESDAY...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. W-SW WINDS GUSTS 15-20KT
POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN/NY
HARBOR/SOUTH SHORE BAYS LATER THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KT. OCEAN SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5-7 FT DURING THE NIGHT.

AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY. WIDESPREAD WINDS AROUND 25 KT WILL GUST
UP T0 30 KT. WITH LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND COLDER OCEAN
TEMPERATURES...CONFIDENCE IN SEEING WIDESPREAD GALES IS LOW. HAVE
CONTINUED TO MENTION OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 KT. IF THESE GUSTS
OCCUR...IT WILL BE OVER A SHORT TIME PERIOD AS A LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES OVERHEAD. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON ALL
WATERS ON MONDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD 7 TO 12 FEET.

THE STRONGEST WINDS SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE WATERS TUESDAY...WESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE. IN FACT...A WEST FLOW...AT TIMES BACKING TO THE
SW AND THEN VEERING TO THE NW...IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS IN PLACE.

SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY...BUT DO REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEK AS WAVE WATCH III SUGGESTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP NEAR THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH STRENGTHENING E/SE FLOW AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...WILL NEED
TO WATCH DEPARTURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HIGH TIDE CYCLES. FOR
NOW...WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE WESTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND FOR TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE...AND FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON`S
HIGH TIDE.

FOR TONIGHT...ONLY A HALF A FOOT OR LESS IS NEEDED FOR THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE LONG ISLAND SOUND. SLIGHTLY MORE IS NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE A LITTLE LOWER DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT
WINDS DO INCREASE...LEADING TOWARD ADDITIONAL STORM SURGE
POTENTIALLY. AGAIN...WILL ONLY ISSUE A CSTL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE
WESTERN SOUND FOR NOW.

THE MONDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE COULD EXPERIENCE MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR
CSTL FLOODING...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TO
DETERMINE IF ANY FUTURE ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 200000
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
800 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND REMAINS NEAR THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. A SERIES
OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
WITH WINDS OFF THE COLD OCEAN...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S AND LOW 50S AFTER SUNSET. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL SEND A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...LOWER...AND THICKEN
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
OFFSHORE.

RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z WHEN GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MOVE
INTO WESTERN ZONES. LATEST HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS.
EXPECT RAIN TO BREAK OUT AFTER 06Z...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA THROUGH DAY BREAK. AS LIFT AND MOISTURE
INCREASE...RAINFALL RATES WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AS WELL.

A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL RIDE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL LIKELY
FALL BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.50 INCHES...NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MAKING FOR A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE. RAINFALL WILL BECOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. LOW LEVEL
JET WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AIDING IN ENHANCED LIFT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE IN EARLY AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPEST MOISTURE
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. NO FLASH FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THE WARM FRONT MAY STRUGGLE TO COMPLETELY MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION. IT IS LIKELY TO HANG JUST SOUTH OR OVER LONG ISLAND
IN THE AFTERNOON. IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY EVENING OR MONDAY
NIGHT THAT THE WARM FRONT BRIEFLY MOVES THROUGH AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. INCREASING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS DEPICTED BY THERMODYNAMIC SOUNDINGS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...SO CONTINUING TO MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THIS WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH.

STRONG ESE-SE WINDS ARE NEAR THE COAST...20 TO 25 SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALOFT...THE MERGING OF THE CLOSED LOW WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES TO A POSITION JUST
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY WED.

AT THE SURFACE...MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...
MOVING TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AID IN DRYING THE ATMOSPHERE OUT. SFC LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CANADA NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES WED LATE IN THE DAY.

THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE.

ANY MORNING CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLEARING
TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW PICKS UP. STATISTICAL NAM/GFS MOS SUGGEST
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 TUESDAY. THIS SEEMS TO AGREE
WITH EXPECTED TEMPS ALOFT (CAA) AND EXPECTED MIXING LEVELS.

THEREAFTER...THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS AS THE SFC LOW REMAINS LOCATED WELL
TO THE NORTH. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS TO THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM ENERGY THAT EJECTS OUT OF THE SW
UNITED STATES. TIMING AND POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE GFS
AND ECMWF. WOULD NOT EXPECT THIS LOW TO MAKE MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS
THOUGH GIVEN UPPER PATTERN AND PESKY STACKED LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

AS MENTIONED...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY CAN BE
EXPECTED. THEN AS HEIGHTS LOWER AND THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE SLOW MOVING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FOLLOWED WPC AND GRIDDED
MOS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WHICH SEEMS CLOSE TO 12Z MEX
NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE WARM FRONT NEARS THE
TERMINALS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND MAY MOVE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
THAT THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

CONDITIONS START AT VFR AND QUICKLY LOWER TO MARGINAL VFR AND THEN
IFR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...08Z TO 13Z...AS RAIN
DEVELOPS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OF LOWERING AND
MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR SO. ONCE CONDITIONS DO LOWER TO IFR...IFR TO
LIFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

WIND E TO SE 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AND INCREASES TO
AROUND 20 KT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. WIND AND GUSTS
DIMINISH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE GUSTS POTENTIALLY ENDING
TOWARD 00Z. LLWS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING WITH 2000 FT WIND 50 TO 60 KT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND AND GUST FORECAST WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN THE LLWS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER. AN ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE 00Z TO 06Z.
.TUESDAY...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. W-SW WINDS GUSTS 15-20KT
POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN/NY
HARBOR/SOUTH SHORE BAYS LATER THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KT. OCEAN SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5-7 FT DURING THE NIGHT.

AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY. WIDESPREAD WINDS AROUND 25 KT WILL GUST
UP T0 30 KT. WITH LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND COLDER OCEAN
TEMPERATURES...CONFIDENCE IN SEEING WIDESPREAD GALES IS LOW. HAVE
CONTINUED TO MENTION OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 KT. IF THESE GUSTS
OCCUR...IT WILL BE OVER A SHORT TIME PERIOD AS A LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES OVERHEAD. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON ALL
WATERS ON MONDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD 7 TO 12 FEET.

THE STRONGEST WINDS SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE WATERS TUESDAY...WESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE. IN FACT...A WEST FLOW...AT TIMES BACKING TO THE
SW AND THEN VEERING TO THE NW...IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS IN PLACE.

SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY...BUT DO REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEK AS WAVE WATCH III SUGGESTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP NEAR THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH STRENGTHENING E/SE FLOW AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...WILL NEED
TO WATCH DEPARTURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HIGH TIDE CYCLES. FOR
NOW...WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE WESTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND FOR TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE...AND FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON`S
HIGH TIDE.

FOR TONIGHT...ONLY A HALF A FOOT OR LESS IS NEEDED FOR THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE LONG ISLAND SOUND. SLIGHTLY MORE IS NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE A LITTLE LOWER DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT
WINDS DO INCREASE...LEADING TOWARD ADDITIONAL STORM SURGE
POTENTIALLY. AGAIN...WILL ONLY ISSUE A CSTL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE
WESTERN SOUND FOR NOW.

THE MONDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE COULD EXPERIENCE MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR
CSTL FLOODING...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TO
DETERMINE IF ANY FUTURE ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 192256
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
656 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND REMAINS NEAR THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. A SERIES
OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
WITH WINDS OFF THE COLD OCEAN...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S AND LOW 50S AFTER SUNSET. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL SEND A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...LOWER...AND THICKEN
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
OFFSHORE.

RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z WHEN GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MOVE
INTO WESTERN ZONES. LATEST HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS.
EXPECT RAIN TO BREAK OUT AFTER 06Z...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA THROUGH DAY BREAK. AS LIFT AND MOISTURE
INCREASE...RAINFALL RATES WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AS WELL.

A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL RIDE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL LIKELY
FALL BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.50 INCHES...NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MAKING FOR A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE. RAINFALL WILL BECOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. LOW LEVEL
JET WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AIDING IN ENHANCED LIFT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE IN EARLY AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPEST MOISTURE
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. NO FLASH FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THE WARM FRONT MAY STRUGGLE TO COMPLETELY MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION. IT IS LIKELY TO HANG JUST SOUTH OR OVER LONG ISLAND
IN THE AFTERNOON. IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY EVENING OR MONDAY
NIGHT THAT THE WARM FRONT BRIEFLY MOVES THROUGH AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. INCREASING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS DEPICTED BY THERMODYNAMIC SOUNDINGS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...SO CONTINUING TO MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THIS WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH.

STRONG ESE-SE WINDS ARE NEAR THE COAST...20 TO 25 SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALOFT...THE MERGING OF THE CLOSED LOW WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES TO A POSITION JUST
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY WED.

AT THE SURFACE...MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...
MOVING TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AID IN DRYING THE ATMOSPHERE OUT. SFC LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CANADA NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES WED LATE IN THE DAY.

THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE.

ANY MORNING CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLEARING
TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW PICKS UP. STATISTICAL NAM/GFS MOS SUGGEST
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 TUESDAY. THIS SEEMS TO AGREE
WITH EXPECTED TEMPS ALOFT (CAA) AND EXPECTED MIXING LEVELS.

THEREAFTER...THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS AS THE SFC LOW REMAINS LOCATED WELL
TO THE NORTH. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS TO THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM ENERGY THAT EJECTS OUT OF THE SW
UNITED STATES. TIMING AND POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE GFS
AND ECMWF. WOULD NOT EXPECT THIS LOW TO MAKE MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS
THOUGH GIVEN UPPER PATTERN AND PESKY STACKED LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

AS MENTIONED...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY CAN BE
EXPECTED. THEN AS HEIGHTS LOWER AND THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE SLOW MOVING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FOLLOWED WPC AND GRIDDED
MOS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WHICH SEEMS CLOSE TO 12Z MEX
NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST.

VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z. CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO
MVFR LATE TONIGHT...THEN TO IFR AT WESTERN TERMINALS BY EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING OF CATEGORY
CHANGES...COULD BE OFF +/- 2-4 HOURS.

WIND MAINLY ESE-SE...EXCEPT E KSWF WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS
THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN BACK TO THE ESE-E THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW
KNOTS INCREASE IN SPEED. WINDS INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 6Z
TO 15-20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25KT PROBABLE...AND THEN AGAIN AFTER
12Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT OUT OF THE ESE-SE. LLWS IS EXPECTED AT
ALL BUT KSWF AFTER 12Z.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN LLWS THAN IN GUSTS. COULD END UP WITH GUSTS
ONLY A FEW KT HIGHER THAN WIND SPEED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON...IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. LLWS EARLY. E-SE WINDS 15-
25KT LIKELY GUSTS TO 20-25 KT LIKELY EARLY.
.MONDAY NIGHT. IFR OR LOWER PROBABLE. ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. W-SW WINDS GUSTS 15-20KT
POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN/NY
HARBOR/SOUTH SHORE BAYS LATER THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KT. OCEAN SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5-7 FT DURING THE NIGHT.

AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY. WIDESPREAD WINDS AROUND 25 KT WILL GUST
UP T0 30 KT. WITH LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND COLDER OCEAN
TEMPERATURES...CONFIDENCE IN SEEING WIDESPREAD GALES IS LOW. HAVE
CONTINUED TO MENTION OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 KT. IF THESE GUSTS
OCCUR...IT WILL BE OVER A SHORT TIME PERIOD AS A LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES OVERHEAD. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON ALL
WATERS ON MONDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD 7 TO 12 FEET.

THE STRONGEST WINDS SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE WATERS TUESDAY...WESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE. IN FACT...A WEST FLOW...AT TIMES BACKING TO THE
SW AND THEN VEERING TO THE NW...IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS IN PLACE.

SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY...BUT DO REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEK AS WAVE WATCH III SUGGESTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP NEAR THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH STRENGTHENING E/SE FLOW AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...WILL NEED
TO WATCH DEPARTURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HIGH TIDE CYCLES. FOR
NOW...WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE WESTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND FOR TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE...AND FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON`S
HIGH TIDE.

FOR TONIGHT...ONLY A HALF A FOOT OR LESS IS NEEDED FOR THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE LONG ISLAND SOUND. SLIGHTLY MORE IS NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE A LITTLE LOWER DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT
WINDS DO INCREASE...LEADING TOWARD ADDITIONAL STORM SURGE
POTENTIALLY. AGAIN...WILL ONLY ISSUE A CSTL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE
WESTERN SOUND FOR NOW.

THE MONDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE COULD EXPERIENCE MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR
CSTL FLOODING...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TO
DETERMINE IF ANY FUTURE ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 191957
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND REMAINS NEAR THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. A SERIES
OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
WITH WINDS OFF THE COLD OCEAN...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S AND LOW 50S AFTER SUNSET. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL SEND A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...LOWER...AND THICKEN
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
OFFSHORE.

RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z WHEN GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MOVE
INTO WESTERN ZONES. EXPECT RAIN TO BREAK OUT AFTER 06Z...AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH DAY BREAK. AS LIFT AND
MOISTURE INCREASE...RAINFALL RATES WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AS WELL.

A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL RIDE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL LIKELY
FALL BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.50 INCHES...NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MAKING FOR A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE. RAINFALL WILL BECOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. LOW LEVEL
JET WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AIDING IN ENHANCED LIFT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE IN EARLY AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPEST MOISTURE
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. NO FLASH FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THE WARM FRONT MAY STRUGGLE TO COMPLETELY MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION. IT IS LIKELY TO HANG JUST SOUTH OR OVER LONG ISLAND
IN THE AFTERNOON. IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY EVENING OR MONDAY
NIGHT THAT THE WARM FRONT BRIEFLY MOVES THROUGH AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. INCREASING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS DEPICTED BY THERMODYNAMIC SOUNDINGS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...SO CONTINUING TO MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THIS WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH.

STRONG ESE-SE WINDS ARE NEAR THE COAST...20 TO 25 SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALOFT...THE MERGING OF THE CLOSED LOW WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES TO A POSITION JUST
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY WED.

AT THE SURFACE...MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...
MOVING TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AID IN DRYING THE ATMOSPHERE OUT. SFC LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CANADA NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES WED LATE IN THE DAY.

THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE.

ANY MORNING CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLEARING
TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW PICKS UP. STATISTICAL NAM/GFS MOS SUGGEST
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 TUESDAY. THIS SEEMS TO AGREE
WITH EXPECTED TEMPS ALOFT (CAA) AND EXPECTED MIXING LEVELS.

THEREAFTER...THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS AS THE SFC LOW REMAINS LOCATED WELL
TO THE NORTH. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS TO THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM ENERGY THAT EJECTS OUT OF THE SW
UNITED STATES. TIMING AND POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE GFS
AND ECMWF. WOULD NOT EXPECT THIS LOW TO MAKE MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS
THOUGH GIVEN UPPER PATTERN AND PESKY STACKED LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

AS MENTIONED...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY CAN BE
EXPECTED. THEN AS HEIGHTS LOWER AND THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE SLOW MOVING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FOLLOWED WPC AND GRIDDED
MOS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WHICH SEEMS CLOSE TO 12Z MEX
NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST.

VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z. CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO
MVFR LATE TONIGHT...THEN TO IFR AT WESTERN TERMINALS BY EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING OF CATEGORY
CHANGES...COULD BE OFF +/- 2-4 HOURS.

WIND MAINLY ESE-SE...EXCEPT E KSWF WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS
THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN BACK TO THE ESE-E THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW
KNOTS INCREASE IN SPEED. WINDS INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 6Z
TO 15-20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25KT PROBABLE...AND THEN AGAIN AFTER
12Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT OUT OF THE ESE-SE. LLWS IS EXPECTED AT
ALL BUT KSWF AFTER 12Z.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN LLWS THAN IN GUSTS. COULD END UP WITH GUSTS
ONLY A FEW KT HIGHER THAN WIND SPEED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON...IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. LLWS EARLY. E-SE WINDS 15-
25KT LIKELY GUSTS TO 20-25 KT LIKELY EARLY.
.MONDAY NIGHT. IFR OR LOWER PROBABLE. ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. W-SW WINDS GUSTS 15-20KT
POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.


&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN/NY
HARBOR/SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. OCEAN
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5-7 FT DURING THE NIGHT.

AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY. WIDESPREAD WINDS AROUND 25 KT WILL GUST
UP T0 30 KT. WITH LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND COLDER OCEAN
TEMPERATURES...CONFIDENCE IN SEEING WIDESPREAD GALES IS LOW. HAVE
CONTINUED TO MENTION OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 KT. IF THESE GUSTS
OCCUR...IT WILL BE OVER A SHORT TIME PERIOD AS A LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES OVERHEAD. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON ALL
WATERS ON MONDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD 7 TO 12 FEET.

THE STRONGEST WINDS SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE WATERS TUESDAY...WESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE. IN FACT...A WEST FLOW...AT TIMES BACKING TO THE
SW AND THEN VEERING TO THE NW...IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS IN PLACE.

SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY...BUT DO REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEK AS WAVE WATCH III SUGGESTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP NEAR THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH STRENGTHENING E/SE FLOW AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...WILL NEED
TO WATCH DEPARTURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HIGH TIDE CYCLES. FOR
NOW...WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE WESTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND FOR TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE...AND FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON`S
HIGH TIDE.

FOR TONIGHT...ONLY A HALF A FOOT OR LESS IS NEEDED FOR THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE LONG ISLAND SOUND. SLIGHTLY MORE IS NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE A LITTLE LOWER DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT
WINDS DO INCREASE...LEADING TOWARD ADDITIONAL STORM SURGE
POTENTIALLY. AGAIN...WILL ONLY ISSUE A CSTL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE
WESTERN SOUND FOR NOW.

THE MONDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE COULD EXPERIENCE MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR
CSTL FLOODING...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TO
DETERMINE IF ANY FUTURE ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 191957
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND REMAINS NEAR THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. A SERIES
OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
WITH WINDS OFF THE COLD OCEAN...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S AND LOW 50S AFTER SUNSET. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL SEND A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...LOWER...AND THICKEN
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
OFFSHORE.

RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z WHEN GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MOVE
INTO WESTERN ZONES. EXPECT RAIN TO BREAK OUT AFTER 06Z...AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH DAY BREAK. AS LIFT AND
MOISTURE INCREASE...RAINFALL RATES WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AS WELL.

A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL RIDE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL LIKELY
FALL BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.50 INCHES...NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MAKING FOR A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE. RAINFALL WILL BECOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. LOW LEVEL
JET WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AIDING IN ENHANCED LIFT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE IN EARLY AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPEST MOISTURE
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. NO FLASH FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THE WARM FRONT MAY STRUGGLE TO COMPLETELY MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION. IT IS LIKELY TO HANG JUST SOUTH OR OVER LONG ISLAND
IN THE AFTERNOON. IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY EVENING OR MONDAY
NIGHT THAT THE WARM FRONT BRIEFLY MOVES THROUGH AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. INCREASING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS DEPICTED BY THERMODYNAMIC SOUNDINGS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...SO CONTINUING TO MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THIS WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH.

STRONG ESE-SE WINDS ARE NEAR THE COAST...20 TO 25 SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALOFT...THE MERGING OF THE CLOSED LOW WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES TO A POSITION JUST
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY WED.

AT THE SURFACE...MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...
MOVING TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AID IN DRYING THE ATMOSPHERE OUT. SFC LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CANADA NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES WED LATE IN THE DAY.

THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE.

ANY MORNING CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLEARING
TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW PICKS UP. STATISTICAL NAM/GFS MOS SUGGEST
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 TUESDAY. THIS SEEMS TO AGREE
WITH EXPECTED TEMPS ALOFT (CAA) AND EXPECTED MIXING LEVELS.

THEREAFTER...THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS AS THE SFC LOW REMAINS LOCATED WELL
TO THE NORTH. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS TO THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM ENERGY THAT EJECTS OUT OF THE SW
UNITED STATES. TIMING AND POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE GFS
AND ECMWF. WOULD NOT EXPECT THIS LOW TO MAKE MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS
THOUGH GIVEN UPPER PATTERN AND PESKY STACKED LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

AS MENTIONED...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY CAN BE
EXPECTED. THEN AS HEIGHTS LOWER AND THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE SLOW MOVING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FOLLOWED WPC AND GRIDDED
MOS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WHICH SEEMS CLOSE TO 12Z MEX
NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST.

VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z. CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO
MVFR LATE TONIGHT...THEN TO IFR AT WESTERN TERMINALS BY EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING OF CATEGORY
CHANGES...COULD BE OFF +/- 2-4 HOURS.

WIND MAINLY ESE-SE...EXCEPT E KSWF WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS
THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN BACK TO THE ESE-E THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW
KNOTS INCREASE IN SPEED. WINDS INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 6Z
TO 15-20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25KT PROBABLE...AND THEN AGAIN AFTER
12Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT OUT OF THE ESE-SE. LLWS IS EXPECTED AT
ALL BUT KSWF AFTER 12Z.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN LLWS THAN IN GUSTS. COULD END UP WITH GUSTS
ONLY A FEW KT HIGHER THAN WIND SPEED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON...IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. LLWS EARLY. E-SE WINDS 15-
25KT LIKELY GUSTS TO 20-25 KT LIKELY EARLY.
.MONDAY NIGHT. IFR OR LOWER PROBABLE. ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. W-SW WINDS GUSTS 15-20KT
POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.


&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN/NY
HARBOR/SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. OCEAN
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5-7 FT DURING THE NIGHT.

AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY. WIDESPREAD WINDS AROUND 25 KT WILL GUST
UP T0 30 KT. WITH LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND COLDER OCEAN
TEMPERATURES...CONFIDENCE IN SEEING WIDESPREAD GALES IS LOW. HAVE
CONTINUED TO MENTION OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 KT. IF THESE GUSTS
OCCUR...IT WILL BE OVER A SHORT TIME PERIOD AS A LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES OVERHEAD. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON ALL
WATERS ON MONDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD 7 TO 12 FEET.

THE STRONGEST WINDS SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE WATERS TUESDAY...WESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE. IN FACT...A WEST FLOW...AT TIMES BACKING TO THE
SW AND THEN VEERING TO THE NW...IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS IN PLACE.

SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY...BUT DO REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEK AS WAVE WATCH III SUGGESTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP NEAR THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH STRENGTHENING E/SE FLOW AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...WILL NEED
TO WATCH DEPARTURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HIGH TIDE CYCLES. FOR
NOW...WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE WESTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND FOR TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE...AND FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON`S
HIGH TIDE.

FOR TONIGHT...ONLY A HALF A FOOT OR LESS IS NEEDED FOR THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE LONG ISLAND SOUND. SLIGHTLY MORE IS NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE A LITTLE LOWER DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT
WINDS DO INCREASE...LEADING TOWARD ADDITIONAL STORM SURGE
POTENTIALLY. AGAIN...WILL ONLY ISSUE A CSTL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE
WESTERN SOUND FOR NOW.

THE MONDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE COULD EXPERIENCE MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR
CSTL FLOODING...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TO
DETERMINE IF ANY FUTURE ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 191805
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
205 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...SOUTHEAST
SEA BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE COAST.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

A SUNNY SKY CONDITION IS FORECAST OVERALL THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES BUILDING OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
EAST AND OFFSHORE TOWARDS THE EVENING.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL COMPARED TO SATURDAY...
GENERALLY TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS.
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
CT...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW 60S...AND
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S CLOSER TO THE COASTS...AS OCEAN TEMPS
ARE ONLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...
SFC LOW PRES WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...AND A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LIKELY
POPS FOR THE WESTERN ZONES AND WILL KEEP NEW LONDON COUNTY AND
EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY MAINLY DRY FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD.

WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIFT THROUGH WITH THE WARM
FRONT...AND THIS WILL HELP ENHANCE PRECIPITATION WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND/COASTAL CT ON
MONDAY...WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
35 MPH. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN SHOULD PUSH EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES THEN PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASING...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TSTMS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH A FEW H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING KEEPS THE REGION DRY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND PASSES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. CHANCE SHOWERS...PRIMARILY
FOR LATE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. WENT A LITTLE ABOVE WPC/GMOS
BLEND FOR HIGHS...MORE SO OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SW
FLOW WON`T ADVECT COOLER AIR FROM THE WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE PERIOD
COULD BE DRY. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER
LOW/COLD POOL. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW
NORMALS...BUT AT LEAST IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST.

VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z. CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO
MVFR LATE TONIGHT...THEN TO IFR AT WESTERN TERMINALS BY EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING OF CATEGORY
CHANGES...COULD BE OFF +/- 2-4 HOURS.

WIND MAINLY ESE-SE...EXCEPT E KSWF WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT OR
LESS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN BACK TO THE ESE-E THIS
EVENING...WITH A FEW KNOTS INCREASE IN SPEED. WINDS INCREASE MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 6Z TO 15-20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25KT
PROBABLE...AND THEN AGAIN AFTER 12Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT OUT
OF THE ESE-SE. LLWS IS EXPECTED AT ALL BUT KSWF AFTER 12Z.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN LLWS THAN IN GUSTS. COULD END UP WITH
GUSTS ONLY A FEW KT HIGHER THAN WIND SPEED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON...IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. LLWS EARLY. E-SE WINDS
15-25KT LIKELY GUSTS TO 20-25 KT LIKELY EARLY.
.MONDAY NIGHT. IFR OR LOWER PROBABLE. ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. W-SW WINDS GUSTS 15-20KT
POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL
DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN/NY
HARBOR/SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
OCEAN SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5-7 FT DURING THE NIGHT.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY...WITH WIDESPREAD WINDS
GUSTING TO 25-30 KT...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS...AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A GALE WATCH TO BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT AND LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES TO THE EAST. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING...AND
THEN TO THE NW LATE.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR A PORTION OF TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...A W TO SW FLOW
COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SEAS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 5
FT ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS....THEN WINDS PICK UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON ALL
OCEAN WATERS AS WELL AS POSSIBLY THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE
MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING
HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF
A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS
LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC/PW
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 191805
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
205 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...SOUTHEAST
SEA BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE COAST.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

A SUNNY SKY CONDITION IS FORECAST OVERALL THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES BUILDING OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
EAST AND OFFSHORE TOWARDS THE EVENING.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL COMPARED TO SATURDAY...
GENERALLY TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS.
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
CT...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW 60S...AND
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S CLOSER TO THE COASTS...AS OCEAN TEMPS
ARE ONLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...
SFC LOW PRES WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...AND A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LIKELY
POPS FOR THE WESTERN ZONES AND WILL KEEP NEW LONDON COUNTY AND
EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY MAINLY DRY FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD.

WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIFT THROUGH WITH THE WARM
FRONT...AND THIS WILL HELP ENHANCE PRECIPITATION WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND/COASTAL CT ON
MONDAY...WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
35 MPH. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN SHOULD PUSH EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES THEN PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASING...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TSTMS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH A FEW H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING KEEPS THE REGION DRY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND PASSES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. CHANCE SHOWERS...PRIMARILY
FOR LATE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. WENT A LITTLE ABOVE WPC/GMOS
BLEND FOR HIGHS...MORE SO OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SW
FLOW WON`T ADVECT COOLER AIR FROM THE WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE PERIOD
COULD BE DRY. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER
LOW/COLD POOL. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW
NORMALS...BUT AT LEAST IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST.

VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z. CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO
MVFR LATE TONIGHT...THEN TO IFR AT WESTERN TERMINALS BY EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING OF CATEGORY
CHANGES...COULD BE OFF +/- 2-4 HOURS.

WIND MAINLY ESE-SE...EXCEPT E KSWF WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT OR
LESS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN BACK TO THE ESE-E THIS
EVENING...WITH A FEW KNOTS INCREASE IN SPEED. WINDS INCREASE MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 6Z TO 15-20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25KT
PROBABLE...AND THEN AGAIN AFTER 12Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT OUT
OF THE ESE-SE. LLWS IS EXPECTED AT ALL BUT KSWF AFTER 12Z.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN LLWS THAN IN GUSTS. COULD END UP WITH
GUSTS ONLY A FEW KT HIGHER THAN WIND SPEED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON...IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. LLWS EARLY. E-SE WINDS
15-25KT LIKELY GUSTS TO 20-25 KT LIKELY EARLY.
.MONDAY NIGHT. IFR OR LOWER PROBABLE. ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. W-SW WINDS GUSTS 15-20KT
POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL
DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN/NY
HARBOR/SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
OCEAN SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5-7 FT DURING THE NIGHT.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY...WITH WIDESPREAD WINDS
GUSTING TO 25-30 KT...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS...AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A GALE WATCH TO BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT AND LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES TO THE EAST. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING...AND
THEN TO THE NW LATE.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR A PORTION OF TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...A W TO SW FLOW
COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SEAS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 5
FT ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS....THEN WINDS PICK UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON ALL
OCEAN WATERS AS WELL AS POSSIBLY THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE
MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING
HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF
A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS
LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC/PW
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 191624
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1224 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...SOUTHEAST
SEA BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE COAST.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

A SUNNY SKY CONDITION IS FORECAST OVERALL THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES BUILDING OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
EAST AND OFFSHORE TOWARDS THE EVENING.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL COMPARED TO SATURDAY...
GENERALLY TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS.
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
CT...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW 60S...AND
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S CLOSER TO THE COASTS...AS OCEAN TEMPS
ARE ONLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...
SFC LOW PRES WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...AND A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LIKELY
POPS FOR THE WESTERN ZONES AND WILL KEEP NEW LONDON COUNTY AND
EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY MAINLY DRY FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD.

WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIFT THROUGH WITH THE WARM
FRONT...AND THIS WILL HELP ENHANCE PRECIPITATION WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND/COASTAL CT ON
MONDAY...WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
35 MPH. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN SHOULD PUSH EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES THEN PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASING...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TSTMS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH A FEW H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING KEEPS THE REGION DRY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND PASSES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. CHANCE SHOWERS...PRIMARILY
FOR LATE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. WENT A LITTLE ABOVE WPC/GMOS
BLEND FOR HIGHS...MORE SO OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SW
FLOW WON`T ADVECT COOLER AIR FROM THE WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE PERIOD
COULD BE DRY. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER
LOW/COLD POOL. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW
NORMALS...BUT AT LEAST IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z. MVFR TO IFR HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP OVER KSWF AND CITY TERMINALS FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY IN THE TAFS OVERNIGHT BY 3-4 HOURS OR SO. CONFIDENCE
CURRENTLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CHANGE TAFS...BUT THIS ADJUSTMENT
COULD BE MADE WITH 18Z TAFS.

WIND MAINLY E-SE...EXCEPT NE KLGA/KISP/KSWF TO START. ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD BECOME ESE-SE AT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN BACK TO THE ESE-E THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW
KNOTS INCREASE IN SPEED. WINDS INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
6Z TO 15-20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT PROBABLE. STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW STRONG GUSTS WILL END UP BEING AND WHAT TIME
THEY WILL BEGIN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY...IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. LLWS. E-SE WINDS 15-25KT LIKELY
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY NIGHT. IFR OR LOWER PROBABLE. ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. W-SW WINDS GUSTS 15-20KT
POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW- WSW WINGS G20-25KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. W
WINGS G20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL
DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN/NY
HARBOR/SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
OCEAN SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5-7 FT DURING THE NIGHT.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY...WITH WIDESPREAD WINDS
GUSTING TO 25-30 KT...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS...AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A GALE WATCH TO BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT AND LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES TO THE EAST. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING...AND
THEN TO THE NW LATE.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR A PORTION OF TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...A W TO SW FLOW
COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SEAS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 5
FT ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS....THEN WINDS PICK UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON ALL
OCEAN WATERS AS WELL AS POSSIBLY THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE
MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING
HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF
A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS
LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC/PW
AVIATION...JC/MALOIT
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 191624
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1224 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...SOUTHEAST
SEA BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE COAST.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

A SUNNY SKY CONDITION IS FORECAST OVERALL THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES BUILDING OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
EAST AND OFFSHORE TOWARDS THE EVENING.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL COMPARED TO SATURDAY...
GENERALLY TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS.
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
CT...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW 60S...AND
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S CLOSER TO THE COASTS...AS OCEAN TEMPS
ARE ONLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...
SFC LOW PRES WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...AND A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LIKELY
POPS FOR THE WESTERN ZONES AND WILL KEEP NEW LONDON COUNTY AND
EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY MAINLY DRY FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD.

WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIFT THROUGH WITH THE WARM
FRONT...AND THIS WILL HELP ENHANCE PRECIPITATION WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND/COASTAL CT ON
MONDAY...WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
35 MPH. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN SHOULD PUSH EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES THEN PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASING...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TSTMS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH A FEW H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING KEEPS THE REGION DRY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND PASSES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. CHANCE SHOWERS...PRIMARILY
FOR LATE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. WENT A LITTLE ABOVE WPC/GMOS
BLEND FOR HIGHS...MORE SO OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SW
FLOW WON`T ADVECT COOLER AIR FROM THE WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE PERIOD
COULD BE DRY. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER
LOW/COLD POOL. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW
NORMALS...BUT AT LEAST IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z. MVFR TO IFR HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP OVER KSWF AND CITY TERMINALS FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY IN THE TAFS OVERNIGHT BY 3-4 HOURS OR SO. CONFIDENCE
CURRENTLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CHANGE TAFS...BUT THIS ADJUSTMENT
COULD BE MADE WITH 18Z TAFS.

WIND MAINLY E-SE...EXCEPT NE KLGA/KISP/KSWF TO START. ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD BECOME ESE-SE AT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN BACK TO THE ESE-E THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW
KNOTS INCREASE IN SPEED. WINDS INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
6Z TO 15-20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT PROBABLE. STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW STRONG GUSTS WILL END UP BEING AND WHAT TIME
THEY WILL BEGIN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY...IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. LLWS. E-SE WINDS 15-25KT LIKELY
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY NIGHT. IFR OR LOWER PROBABLE. ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. W-SW WINDS GUSTS 15-20KT
POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW- WSW WINGS G20-25KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. W
WINGS G20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL
DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN/NY
HARBOR/SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
OCEAN SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5-7 FT DURING THE NIGHT.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY...WITH WIDESPREAD WINDS
GUSTING TO 25-30 KT...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS...AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A GALE WATCH TO BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT AND LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES TO THE EAST. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING...AND
THEN TO THE NW LATE.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR A PORTION OF TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...A W TO SW FLOW
COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SEAS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 5
FT ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS....THEN WINDS PICK UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON ALL
OCEAN WATERS AS WELL AS POSSIBLY THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE
MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING
HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF
A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS
LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC/PW
AVIATION...JC/MALOIT
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 191624
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1224 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...SOUTHEAST
SEA BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE COAST.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

A SUNNY SKY CONDITION IS FORECAST OVERALL THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES BUILDING OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
EAST AND OFFSHORE TOWARDS THE EVENING.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL COMPARED TO SATURDAY...
GENERALLY TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS.
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
CT...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW 60S...AND
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S CLOSER TO THE COASTS...AS OCEAN TEMPS
ARE ONLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...
SFC LOW PRES WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...AND A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LIKELY
POPS FOR THE WESTERN ZONES AND WILL KEEP NEW LONDON COUNTY AND
EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY MAINLY DRY FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD.

WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIFT THROUGH WITH THE WARM
FRONT...AND THIS WILL HELP ENHANCE PRECIPITATION WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND/COASTAL CT ON
MONDAY...WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
35 MPH. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN SHOULD PUSH EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES THEN PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASING...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TSTMS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH A FEW H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING KEEPS THE REGION DRY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND PASSES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. CHANCE SHOWERS...PRIMARILY
FOR LATE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. WENT A LITTLE ABOVE WPC/GMOS
BLEND FOR HIGHS...MORE SO OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SW
FLOW WON`T ADVECT COOLER AIR FROM THE WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE PERIOD
COULD BE DRY. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER
LOW/COLD POOL. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW
NORMALS...BUT AT LEAST IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z. MVFR TO IFR HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP OVER KSWF AND CITY TERMINALS FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY IN THE TAFS OVERNIGHT BY 3-4 HOURS OR SO. CONFIDENCE
CURRENTLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CHANGE TAFS...BUT THIS ADJUSTMENT
COULD BE MADE WITH 18Z TAFS.

WIND MAINLY E-SE...EXCEPT NE KLGA/KISP/KSWF TO START. ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD BECOME ESE-SE AT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN BACK TO THE ESE-E THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW
KNOTS INCREASE IN SPEED. WINDS INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
6Z TO 15-20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT PROBABLE. STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW STRONG GUSTS WILL END UP BEING AND WHAT TIME
THEY WILL BEGIN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY...IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. LLWS. E-SE WINDS 15-25KT LIKELY
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY NIGHT. IFR OR LOWER PROBABLE. ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. W-SW WINDS GUSTS 15-20KT
POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW- WSW WINGS G20-25KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. W
WINGS G20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL
DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN/NY
HARBOR/SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
OCEAN SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5-7 FT DURING THE NIGHT.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY...WITH WIDESPREAD WINDS
GUSTING TO 25-30 KT...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS...AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A GALE WATCH TO BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT AND LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES TO THE EAST. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING...AND
THEN TO THE NW LATE.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR A PORTION OF TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...A W TO SW FLOW
COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SEAS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 5
FT ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS....THEN WINDS PICK UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON ALL
OCEAN WATERS AS WELL AS POSSIBLY THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE
MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING
HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF
A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS
LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC/PW
AVIATION...JC/MALOIT
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 191459
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1059 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...AND SKY GRIDS FOLLOWING THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK. SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
THIN THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE TO THE
EAST. A SUNNY SKY CONDITION IS FORECAST OVERALL TODAY. THE CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE CENTER OF
SFC HIGH PRES OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL DROP OVER CAPE COD BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY...AND THEN CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST AND
OFFSHORE TOWARDS THIS EVENING.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL COMPARED TO SATURDAY...
GENERALLY TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS.
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
CT...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW 60S...AND
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S CLOSER TO THE COASTS...AS OCEAN TEMPS
ARE ONLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...
SFC LOW PRES WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...AND A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LIKELY
POPS FOR THE WESTERN ZONES AND WILL KEEP NEW LONDON COUNTY AND
EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY MAINLY DRY FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD.

WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIFT THROUGH WITH THE WARM
FRONT...AND THIS WILL HELP ENHANCE PRECIPITATION WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND/COASTAL CT ON
MONDAY...WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
35 MPH. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN SHOULD PUSH EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES THEN PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASING...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TSTMS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH A FEW H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING KEEPS THE REGION DRY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND PASSES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. CHANCE SHOWERS...PRIMARILY
FOR LATE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. WENT A LITTLE ABOVE WPC/GMOS
BLEND FOR HIGHS...MORE SO OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SW
FLOW WON`T ADVECT COOLER AIR FROM THE WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE PERIOD
COULD BE DRY. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER
LOW/COLD POOL. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW
NORMALS...BUT AT LEAST IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z. MVFR TO IFR HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP OVER KSWF AND CITY TERMINALS FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY IN THE TAFS OVERNIGHT BY 3-4 HOURS OR SO. CONFIDENCE
CURRENTLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CHANGE TAFS...BUT THIS ADJUSTMENT
COULD BE MADE WITH 18Z TAFS.

WIND MAINLY E-SE...EXCEPT NE KLGA/KISP/KSWF TO START. ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD BECOME ESE-SE AT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN BACK TO THE ESE-E THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW
KNOTS INCREASE IN SPEED. WINDS INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
6Z TO 15-20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT PROBABLE. STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW STRONG GUSTS WILL END UP BEING AND WHAT TIME
THEY WILL BEGIN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY...IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. LLWS. E-SE WINDS 15-25KT LIKELY
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY NIGHT. IFR OR LOWER PROBABLE. ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. W-SW WINDS GUSTS 15-20KT
POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW- WSW WINGS G20-25KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. W
WINGS G20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL
DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN/NY
HARBOR/SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
OCEAN SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5-7 FT DURING THE NIGHT.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY...WITH WIDESPREAD WINDS
GUSTING TO 25-30 KT...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS...AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A GALE WATCH TO BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT AND LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES TO THE EAST. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING...AND
THEN TO THE NW LATE.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR A PORTION OF TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...A W TO SW FLOW
COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SEAS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 5
FT ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS....THEN WINDS PICK UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON ALL
OCEAN WATERS AS WELL AS POSSIBLY THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE
MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING
HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF
A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS
LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS/JC
NEAR TERM...DS/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC/PW
AVIATION...MALOIT/JC
MARINE...MPS/JC
HYDROLOGY...MPS/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 191409
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1009 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING...MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...AND SKY GRIDS FOLLOWING THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK. SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
THIN THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE TO THE
EAST. A SUNNY SKY CONDITION IS FORECAST OVERALL TODAY. THE CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE CENTER OF
SFC HIGH PRES OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL DROP OVER CAPE COD BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY...AND THEN CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST AND
OFFSHORE TOWARDS THIS EVENING.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL COMPARED TO
SATURDAY...GENERALLY TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST
AREAS. ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CT...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW
60S...AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S CLOSER TO THE COASTS...AS
OCEAN TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...
SFC LOW PRES WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...AND A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR THE
WESTERN ZONES AND WILL KEEP NEW LONDON COUNTY AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY MAINLY DRY FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD.

WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
50-60 KT LLJ WILL LIFT THROUGH WITH THE WARM FRONT...AND THIS WILL
HELP ENHANCE PRECIP WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND/COASTAL CT ON MONDAY...WITH WINDS RANGING
FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN SHOULD
PUSH EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES THEN PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY INCREASING...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
WITH A FEW H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING KEEPS THE REGION DRY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. CHC SHOWERS...PRIMARILY FOR LATE
DAY AND EVENING HOURS. WENT A LITTLE ABOVE WPC/GMOS BLEND FOR
HIGHS...MORE SO OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SW FLOW WON`T
ADVECT COOLER AIR FROM THE WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE PERIOD
COULD BE DRY. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHC POPS DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER
LOW/COLD POOL. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW
NORMALS...BUT AT LEAST IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TODAY WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LATE
TONIGHT.

VFR TODAY AND THRU AT LEAST MOST OF TONIGHT. NE WINDS SHIFT ESE
TOWARDS NOON AT AROUND 10KT. TIMING OF THIS SHIFT COULD BE OFF BY
1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...IFR. RAIN. LLWS MOSTLY AM. ESE WIND 15 KT TO 25 KT...GUSTS
AROUND 30KT.
.TUE...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. WEST GUSTS 25-30KT.
.WED...MVFR POSSIBLE PM WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CHC SW GUSTS 20KT
PM.
.THU...VFR. CHC W GUSTS 20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL
DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN/NY HARBOR/SOUTH
SHORE BAYS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. OCEAN SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD TO 5-7 FT DURING THE NIGHT.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING. CONDS
WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY...WITH WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30
KT...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A GALE WATCH TO BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT AND LLJ
MOVES TO THE EAST. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN TO THE
NW LATE.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR A PORTION OF TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...A W TO SW FLOW
COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SEAS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 5
FT ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS....THEN WINDS PICK UP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SCA CONDS LIKELY ON ALL OCEAN WATERS AS
WELL AS POSSIBLY THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE
MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH
FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1
TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC/PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 191123
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
723 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
LATER TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING...MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION
TODAY. THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL DROP
OVER CAPE COD BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...AND THEN CONTINUES TO
TRACK TO THE EAST AND MOVE OFFSHORE TOWARDS THIS EVENING.

GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COOLER DAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY...AS THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL
RESULT IN SE FLOW.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...GENERALLY TOPPING OFF IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS. ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW 60S...AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
50S CLOSER TO THE COASTS...AS OCEAN TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...
SFC LOW PRES WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...AND A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR THE
WESTERN ZONES AND WILL KEEP NEW LONDON COUNTY AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY MAINLY DRY FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD.

WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
50-60 KT LLJ WILL LIFT THROUGH WITH THE WARM FRONT...AND THIS WILL
HELP ENHANCE PRECIP WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND/COASTAL CT ON MONDAY...WITH WINDS RANGING
FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN SHOULD
PUSH EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES THEN PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY INCREASING...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
WITH A FEW H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING KEEPS THE REGION DRY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. CHC SHOWERS...PRIMARILY FOR LATE
DAY AND EVENING HOURS. WENT A LITTLE ABOVE WPC/GMOS BLEND FOR
HIGHS...MORE SO OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SW FLOW WON`T
ADVECT COOLER AIR FROM THE WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE PERIOD
COULD BE DRY. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHC POPS DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER
LOW/COLD POOL. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW
NORMALS...BUT AT LEAST IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TODAY WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LATE
TONIGHT.

VFR TODAY AND THRU AT LEAST MOST OF TONIGHT. NE WINDS SHIFT ESE
TOWARDS NOON AT AROUND 10KT. TIMING OF THIS SHIFT COULD BE OFF BY
1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...IFR. RAIN. LLWS MOSTLY AM. ESE WIND 15 KT TO 25 KT...GUSTS
AROUND 30KT.
.TUE...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. WEST GUSTS 25-30KT.
.WED...MVFR POSSIBLE PM WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CHC SW GUSTS 20KT
PM.
.THU...VFR. CHC W GUSTS 20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL
DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN/NY HARBOR/SOUTH
SHORE BAYS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. OCEAN SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD TO 5-7 FT DURING THE NIGHT.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING. CONDS
WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY...WITH WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30
KT...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A GALE WATCH TO BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT AND LLJ
MOVES TO THE EAST. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN TO THE
NW LATE.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR A PORTION OF TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...A W TO SW FLOW
COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SEAS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 5
FT ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS....THEN WINDS PICK UP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SCA CONDS LIKELY ON ALL OCEAN WATERS AS
WELL AS POSSIBLY THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE
MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH
FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1
TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC/PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 191123
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
723 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
LATER TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING...MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION
TODAY. THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL DROP
OVER CAPE COD BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...AND THEN CONTINUES TO
TRACK TO THE EAST AND MOVE OFFSHORE TOWARDS THIS EVENING.

GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COOLER DAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY...AS THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL
RESULT IN SE FLOW.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...GENERALLY TOPPING OFF IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS. ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW 60S...AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
50S CLOSER TO THE COASTS...AS OCEAN TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...
SFC LOW PRES WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...AND A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR THE
WESTERN ZONES AND WILL KEEP NEW LONDON COUNTY AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY MAINLY DRY FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD.

WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
50-60 KT LLJ WILL LIFT THROUGH WITH THE WARM FRONT...AND THIS WILL
HELP ENHANCE PRECIP WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND/COASTAL CT ON MONDAY...WITH WINDS RANGING
FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN SHOULD
PUSH EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES THEN PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY INCREASING...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
WITH A FEW H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING KEEPS THE REGION DRY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. CHC SHOWERS...PRIMARILY FOR LATE
DAY AND EVENING HOURS. WENT A LITTLE ABOVE WPC/GMOS BLEND FOR
HIGHS...MORE SO OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SW FLOW WON`T
ADVECT COOLER AIR FROM THE WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE PERIOD
COULD BE DRY. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHC POPS DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER
LOW/COLD POOL. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW
NORMALS...BUT AT LEAST IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TODAY WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LATE
TONIGHT.

VFR TODAY AND THRU AT LEAST MOST OF TONIGHT. NE WINDS SHIFT ESE
TOWARDS NOON AT AROUND 10KT. TIMING OF THIS SHIFT COULD BE OFF BY
1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...IFR. RAIN. LLWS MOSTLY AM. ESE WIND 15 KT TO 25 KT...GUSTS
AROUND 30KT.
.TUE...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. WEST GUSTS 25-30KT.
.WED...MVFR POSSIBLE PM WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CHC SW GUSTS 20KT
PM.
.THU...VFR. CHC W GUSTS 20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL
DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN/NY HARBOR/SOUTH
SHORE BAYS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. OCEAN SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD TO 5-7 FT DURING THE NIGHT.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING. CONDS
WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY...WITH WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30
KT...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A GALE WATCH TO BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT AND LLJ
MOVES TO THE EAST. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN TO THE
NW LATE.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR A PORTION OF TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...A W TO SW FLOW
COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SEAS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 5
FT ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS....THEN WINDS PICK UP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SCA CONDS LIKELY ON ALL OCEAN WATERS AS
WELL AS POSSIBLY THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE
MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH
FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1
TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC/PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 191123
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
723 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
LATER TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING...MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION
TODAY. THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL DROP
OVER CAPE COD BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...AND THEN CONTINUES TO
TRACK TO THE EAST AND MOVE OFFSHORE TOWARDS THIS EVENING.

GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COOLER DAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY...AS THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL
RESULT IN SE FLOW.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...GENERALLY TOPPING OFF IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS. ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW 60S...AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
50S CLOSER TO THE COASTS...AS OCEAN TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...
SFC LOW PRES WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...AND A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR THE
WESTERN ZONES AND WILL KEEP NEW LONDON COUNTY AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY MAINLY DRY FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD.

WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
50-60 KT LLJ WILL LIFT THROUGH WITH THE WARM FRONT...AND THIS WILL
HELP ENHANCE PRECIP WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND/COASTAL CT ON MONDAY...WITH WINDS RANGING
FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN SHOULD
PUSH EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES THEN PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY INCREASING...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
WITH A FEW H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING KEEPS THE REGION DRY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. CHC SHOWERS...PRIMARILY FOR LATE
DAY AND EVENING HOURS. WENT A LITTLE ABOVE WPC/GMOS BLEND FOR
HIGHS...MORE SO OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SW FLOW WON`T
ADVECT COOLER AIR FROM THE WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE PERIOD
COULD BE DRY. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHC POPS DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER
LOW/COLD POOL. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW
NORMALS...BUT AT LEAST IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TODAY WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LATE
TONIGHT.

VFR TODAY AND THRU AT LEAST MOST OF TONIGHT. NE WINDS SHIFT ESE
TOWARDS NOON AT AROUND 10KT. TIMING OF THIS SHIFT COULD BE OFF BY
1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...IFR. RAIN. LLWS MOSTLY AM. ESE WIND 15 KT TO 25 KT...GUSTS
AROUND 30KT.
.TUE...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. WEST GUSTS 25-30KT.
.WED...MVFR POSSIBLE PM WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CHC SW GUSTS 20KT
PM.
.THU...VFR. CHC W GUSTS 20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL
DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN/NY HARBOR/SOUTH
SHORE BAYS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. OCEAN SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD TO 5-7 FT DURING THE NIGHT.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING. CONDS
WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY...WITH WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30
KT...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A GALE WATCH TO BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT AND LLJ
MOVES TO THE EAST. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN TO THE
NW LATE.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR A PORTION OF TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...A W TO SW FLOW
COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SEAS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 5
FT ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS....THEN WINDS PICK UP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SCA CONDS LIKELY ON ALL OCEAN WATERS AS
WELL AS POSSIBLY THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE
MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH
FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1
TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC/PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 191011
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
611 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
LATER TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING...MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK. WILL UPDATE HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST SFC
OBS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE OTHERWISE.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE CENTER OF
SFC HIGH PRES OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL DROP OVER CAPE COD BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY...AND THEN CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE EAST AND
MOVE OFFSHORE TOWARDS THIS EVENING.

GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COOLER DAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY...AS THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL
RESULT IN SE FLOW.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...GENERALLY TOPPING OFF IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS. ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW 60S...AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
50S CLOSER TO THE COASTS...AS OCEAN TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...
SFC LOW PRES WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...AND A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR THE
WESTERN ZONES AND WILL KEEP NEW LONDON COUNTY AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY MAINLY DRY FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD.

WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
50-60 KT LLJ WILL LIFT THROUGH WITH THE WARM FRONT...AND THIS WILL
HELP ENHANCE PRECIP WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND/COASTAL CT ON MONDAY...WITH WINDS RANGING
FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN SHOULD
PUSH EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES THEN PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY INCREASING...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
WITH A FEW H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING KEEPS THE REGION DRY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. CHC SHOWERS...PRIMARILY FOR LATE
DAY AND EVENING HOURS. WENT A LITTLE ABOVE WPC/GMOS BLEND FOR
HIGHS...MORE SO OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SW FLOW WON`T
ADVECT COOLER AIR FROM THE WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE PERIOD
COULD BE DRY. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHC POPS DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER
LOW/COLD POOL. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW
NORMALS...BUT AT LEAST IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TODAY WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LATE
TONIGHT.

VFR TODAY AND THRU AT LEAST MOST OF TONIGHT. NE WINDS SHIFT ESE
TOWARDS NOON AT AROUND 10KT. TIMING OF THIS SHIFT COULD BE OFF BY
1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR...CHC MVFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH -RA. EAST GUSTS
20-25KT LATE.
.MON...IFR. RAIN. LLWS MOSTLY AM. ESE WIND 15 KT TO 25 KT...GUSTS
AROUND 30KT.
.TUE...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. WEST GUSTS 25-30KT.
.WED...MVFR POSSIBLE PM WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CHC SW GUSTS 20KT
PM.
.THU...VFR. CHC W GUSTS 20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL
DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN/NY HARBOR/SOUTH
SHORE BAYS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. OCEAN SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD TO 5-7 FT DURING THE NIGHT.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING. CONDS
WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY...WITH WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30
KT...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A GALE WATCH TO BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT AND LLJ
MOVES TO THE EAST. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN TO THE
NW LATE.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR A PORTION OF TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...A W TO SW FLOW
COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SEAS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 5
FT ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS....THEN WINDS PICK UP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SCA CONDS LIKELY ON ALL OCEAN WATERS AS
WELL AS POSSIBLY THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE
MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH
FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1
TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 191011
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
611 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
LATER TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING...MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK. WILL UPDATE HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST SFC
OBS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE OTHERWISE.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE CENTER OF
SFC HIGH PRES OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL DROP OVER CAPE COD BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY...AND THEN CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE EAST AND
MOVE OFFSHORE TOWARDS THIS EVENING.

GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COOLER DAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY...AS THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL
RESULT IN SE FLOW.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...GENERALLY TOPPING OFF IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS. ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW 60S...AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
50S CLOSER TO THE COASTS...AS OCEAN TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...
SFC LOW PRES WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...AND A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR THE
WESTERN ZONES AND WILL KEEP NEW LONDON COUNTY AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY MAINLY DRY FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD.

WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
50-60 KT LLJ WILL LIFT THROUGH WITH THE WARM FRONT...AND THIS WILL
HELP ENHANCE PRECIP WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND/COASTAL CT ON MONDAY...WITH WINDS RANGING
FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN SHOULD
PUSH EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES THEN PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY INCREASING...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
WITH A FEW H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING KEEPS THE REGION DRY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. CHC SHOWERS...PRIMARILY FOR LATE
DAY AND EVENING HOURS. WENT A LITTLE ABOVE WPC/GMOS BLEND FOR
HIGHS...MORE SO OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SW FLOW WON`T
ADVECT COOLER AIR FROM THE WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE PERIOD
COULD BE DRY. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHC POPS DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER
LOW/COLD POOL. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW
NORMALS...BUT AT LEAST IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TODAY WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LATE
TONIGHT.

VFR TODAY AND THRU AT LEAST MOST OF TONIGHT. NE WINDS SHIFT ESE
TOWARDS NOON AT AROUND 10KT. TIMING OF THIS SHIFT COULD BE OFF BY
1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR...CHC MVFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH -RA. EAST GUSTS
20-25KT LATE.
.MON...IFR. RAIN. LLWS MOSTLY AM. ESE WIND 15 KT TO 25 KT...GUSTS
AROUND 30KT.
.TUE...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. WEST GUSTS 25-30KT.
.WED...MVFR POSSIBLE PM WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CHC SW GUSTS 20KT
PM.
.THU...VFR. CHC W GUSTS 20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL
DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN/NY HARBOR/SOUTH
SHORE BAYS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. OCEAN SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD TO 5-7 FT DURING THE NIGHT.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING. CONDS
WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY...WITH WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30
KT...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A GALE WATCH TO BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT AND LLJ
MOVES TO THE EAST. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN TO THE
NW LATE.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR A PORTION OF TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...A W TO SW FLOW
COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SEAS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 5
FT ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS....THEN WINDS PICK UP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SCA CONDS LIKELY ON ALL OCEAN WATERS AS
WELL AS POSSIBLY THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE
MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH
FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1
TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 191011
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
611 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
LATER TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING...MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK. WILL UPDATE HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST SFC
OBS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE OTHERWISE.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE CENTER OF
SFC HIGH PRES OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL DROP OVER CAPE COD BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY...AND THEN CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE EAST AND
MOVE OFFSHORE TOWARDS THIS EVENING.

GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COOLER DAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY...AS THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL
RESULT IN SE FLOW.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...GENERALLY TOPPING OFF IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS. ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW 60S...AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
50S CLOSER TO THE COASTS...AS OCEAN TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...
SFC LOW PRES WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...AND A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR THE
WESTERN ZONES AND WILL KEEP NEW LONDON COUNTY AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY MAINLY DRY FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD.

WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
50-60 KT LLJ WILL LIFT THROUGH WITH THE WARM FRONT...AND THIS WILL
HELP ENHANCE PRECIP WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND/COASTAL CT ON MONDAY...WITH WINDS RANGING
FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN SHOULD
PUSH EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES THEN PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY INCREASING...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
WITH A FEW H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING KEEPS THE REGION DRY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. CHC SHOWERS...PRIMARILY FOR LATE
DAY AND EVENING HOURS. WENT A LITTLE ABOVE WPC/GMOS BLEND FOR
HIGHS...MORE SO OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SW FLOW WON`T
ADVECT COOLER AIR FROM THE WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE PERIOD
COULD BE DRY. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHC POPS DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER
LOW/COLD POOL. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW
NORMALS...BUT AT LEAST IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TODAY WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LATE
TONIGHT.

VFR TODAY AND THRU AT LEAST MOST OF TONIGHT. NE WINDS SHIFT ESE
TOWARDS NOON AT AROUND 10KT. TIMING OF THIS SHIFT COULD BE OFF BY
1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR...CHC MVFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH -RA. EAST GUSTS
20-25KT LATE.
.MON...IFR. RAIN. LLWS MOSTLY AM. ESE WIND 15 KT TO 25 KT...GUSTS
AROUND 30KT.
.TUE...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. WEST GUSTS 25-30KT.
.WED...MVFR POSSIBLE PM WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CHC SW GUSTS 20KT
PM.
.THU...VFR. CHC W GUSTS 20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL
DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN/NY HARBOR/SOUTH
SHORE BAYS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. OCEAN SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD TO 5-7 FT DURING THE NIGHT.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING. CONDS
WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY...WITH WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30
KT...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A GALE WATCH TO BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT AND LLJ
MOVES TO THE EAST. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN TO THE
NW LATE.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR A PORTION OF TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...A W TO SW FLOW
COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SEAS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 5
FT ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS....THEN WINDS PICK UP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SCA CONDS LIKELY ON ALL OCEAN WATERS AS
WELL AS POSSIBLY THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE
MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH
FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1
TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 191011
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
611 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
LATER TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING...MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK. WILL UPDATE HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST SFC
OBS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE OTHERWISE.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE CENTER OF
SFC HIGH PRES OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL DROP OVER CAPE COD BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY...AND THEN CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE EAST AND
MOVE OFFSHORE TOWARDS THIS EVENING.

GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COOLER DAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY...AS THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL
RESULT IN SE FLOW.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...GENERALLY TOPPING OFF IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS. ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW 60S...AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
50S CLOSER TO THE COASTS...AS OCEAN TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...
SFC LOW PRES WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...AND A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR THE
WESTERN ZONES AND WILL KEEP NEW LONDON COUNTY AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY MAINLY DRY FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD.

WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
50-60 KT LLJ WILL LIFT THROUGH WITH THE WARM FRONT...AND THIS WILL
HELP ENHANCE PRECIP WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND/COASTAL CT ON MONDAY...WITH WINDS RANGING
FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN SHOULD
PUSH EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES THEN PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY INCREASING...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
WITH A FEW H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING KEEPS THE REGION DRY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. CHC SHOWERS...PRIMARILY FOR LATE
DAY AND EVENING HOURS. WENT A LITTLE ABOVE WPC/GMOS BLEND FOR
HIGHS...MORE SO OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SW FLOW WON`T
ADVECT COOLER AIR FROM THE WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE PERIOD
COULD BE DRY. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHC POPS DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER
LOW/COLD POOL. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW
NORMALS...BUT AT LEAST IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TODAY WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LATE
TONIGHT.

VFR TODAY AND THRU AT LEAST MOST OF TONIGHT. NE WINDS SHIFT ESE
TOWARDS NOON AT AROUND 10KT. TIMING OF THIS SHIFT COULD BE OFF BY
1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR...CHC MVFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH -RA. EAST GUSTS
20-25KT LATE.
.MON...IFR. RAIN. LLWS MOSTLY AM. ESE WIND 15 KT TO 25 KT...GUSTS
AROUND 30KT.
.TUE...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. WEST GUSTS 25-30KT.
.WED...MVFR POSSIBLE PM WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CHC SW GUSTS 20KT
PM.
.THU...VFR. CHC W GUSTS 20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL
DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN/NY HARBOR/SOUTH
SHORE BAYS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. OCEAN SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD TO 5-7 FT DURING THE NIGHT.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING. CONDS
WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY...WITH WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30
KT...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A GALE WATCH TO BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT AND LLJ
MOVES TO THE EAST. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN TO THE
NW LATE.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR A PORTION OF TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...A W TO SW FLOW
COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SEAS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 5
FT ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS....THEN WINDS PICK UP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SCA CONDS LIKELY ON ALL OCEAN WATERS AS
WELL AS POSSIBLY THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE
MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH
FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1
TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 190758
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
358 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
LATER TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING...MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE CENTER OF
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL DROP OVER CAPE COD BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...AND THEN CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE EAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE TOWARDS THIS EVENING.

GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COOLER DAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY...AS THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL
RESULT IN SE FLOW.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...GENERALLY TOPPING OFF IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS. ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW 60S...AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
50S CLOSER TO THE COASTS...AS OCEAN TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...
SFC LOW PRES WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...AND A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR THE
WESTERN ZONES AND WILL KEEP NEW LONDON COUNTY AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY MAINLY DRY FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD.

WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
50-60 KT LLJ WILL LIFT THROUGH WITH THE WARM FRONT...AND THIS WILL
HELP ENHANCE PRECIP WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND/COASTAL CT ON MONDAY...WITH WINDS RANGING
FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN SHOULD
PUSH EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES THEN PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY INCREASING...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
WITH A FEW H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING KEEPS THE REGION DRY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. CHC SHOWERS...PRIMARILY FOR LATE
DAY AND EVENING HOURS. WENT A LITTLE ABOVE WPC/GMOS BLEND FOR
HIGHS...MORE SO OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SW FLOW WON`T
ADVECT COOLER AIR FROM THE WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE PERIOD
COULD BE DRY. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHC POPS DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER
LOW/COLD POOL. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW
NORMALS...BUT AT LEAST IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TODAY WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LATE
TONIGHT.

VFR TODAY AND THRU AT LEAST MOST OF TONIGHT. NE WINDS SHIFT ESE
TOWARDS NOON AT AROUND 10KT. TIMING OF THIS SHIFT COULD BE OFF BY
1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR...CHC MVFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH -RA. EAST GUSTS
20-25KT LATE.
.MON...IFR. RAIN. LLWS MOSTLY AM. ESE WIND 15 KT TO 25 KT...GUSTS
AROUND 30KT.
.TUE...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. WEST GUSTS 25-30KT.
.WED...MVFR POSSIBLE PM WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CHC SW GUSTS 20KT
PM.
.THU...VFR. CHC W GUSTS 20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL
DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN/NY HARBOR/SOUTH
SHORE BAYS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. OCEAN SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD TO 5-7 FT DURING THE NIGHT.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING. CONDS
WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY...WITH WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30
KT...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A GALE WATCH TO BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT AND LLJ
MOVES TO THE EAST. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN TO THE
NW LATE.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR A PORTION OF TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...A W TO SW FLOW
COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SEAS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 5
FT ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS....THEN WINDS PICK UP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SCA CONDS LIKELY ON ALL OCEAN WATERS AS
WELL AS POSSIBLY THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE
MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH
FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1
TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 190758
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
358 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
LATER TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING...MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE CENTER OF
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL DROP OVER CAPE COD BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...AND THEN CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE EAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE TOWARDS THIS EVENING.

GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COOLER DAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY...AS THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL
RESULT IN SE FLOW.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...GENERALLY TOPPING OFF IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS. ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW 60S...AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
50S CLOSER TO THE COASTS...AS OCEAN TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...
SFC LOW PRES WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...AND A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR THE
WESTERN ZONES AND WILL KEEP NEW LONDON COUNTY AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY MAINLY DRY FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD.

WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
50-60 KT LLJ WILL LIFT THROUGH WITH THE WARM FRONT...AND THIS WILL
HELP ENHANCE PRECIP WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND/COASTAL CT ON MONDAY...WITH WINDS RANGING
FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN SHOULD
PUSH EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES THEN PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY INCREASING...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
WITH A FEW H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING KEEPS THE REGION DRY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. CHC SHOWERS...PRIMARILY FOR LATE
DAY AND EVENING HOURS. WENT A LITTLE ABOVE WPC/GMOS BLEND FOR
HIGHS...MORE SO OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SW FLOW WON`T
ADVECT COOLER AIR FROM THE WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE PERIOD
COULD BE DRY. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHC POPS DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER
LOW/COLD POOL. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW
NORMALS...BUT AT LEAST IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TODAY WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LATE
TONIGHT.

VFR TODAY AND THRU AT LEAST MOST OF TONIGHT. NE WINDS SHIFT ESE
TOWARDS NOON AT AROUND 10KT. TIMING OF THIS SHIFT COULD BE OFF BY
1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR...CHC MVFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH -RA. EAST GUSTS
20-25KT LATE.
.MON...IFR. RAIN. LLWS MOSTLY AM. ESE WIND 15 KT TO 25 KT...GUSTS
AROUND 30KT.
.TUE...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. WEST GUSTS 25-30KT.
.WED...MVFR POSSIBLE PM WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CHC SW GUSTS 20KT
PM.
.THU...VFR. CHC W GUSTS 20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL
DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN/NY HARBOR/SOUTH
SHORE BAYS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. OCEAN SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD TO 5-7 FT DURING THE NIGHT.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING. CONDS
WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY...WITH WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30
KT...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A GALE WATCH TO BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT AND LLJ
MOVES TO THE EAST. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN TO THE
NW LATE.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR A PORTION OF TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...A W TO SW FLOW
COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SEAS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 5
FT ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS....THEN WINDS PICK UP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SCA CONDS LIKELY ON ALL OCEAN WATERS AS
WELL AS POSSIBLY THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE
MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH
FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1
TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 190548
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
148 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH TODAY. THE HIGH SLIDES TO THE
EAST INTO TONIGHT...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTH...LIKELY MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS
AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST...KEEPING THINGS DRY AND PROMOTING NOTHING BUT SOME CIRRUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WINDS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS CLOSE
TO FORECAST. THESE LOWS ARE BASED ON AT LEAST LIGHT N-NE WINDS
CONTINUING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY...WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NEAR THE HUDSON RIVER BY
AROUND 00Z MONDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER
WESTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-875
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV...MET AND ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
UNDER DEPARTING RIDGE. SHOULD THEN HAVE SUFFICIENT WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT POPS
FROM CHANCE EASTERN ZONES (SLIGHT CHANCE FAR E NEW LONDON COUNTY)
TO CATEGORICAL OVER ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA AFTER 6Z.

WITH A 45-55 KT LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO IMPINGE ON THE CWA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW...BELIEVE MARINE INVERSION WILL KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR
THE COAST. GUSTS SHOULD BE 25 MPH OR LESS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
GUSTING OVER N INTERIOR ZONES.

FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECASTED.WOULD EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY TRAVERSES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST...AND EVENTUAL PACIFIC NW
ENERGY SHOULD KICK THIS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST OUT BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE...TRIPLE POINT NEARING THE AREA. WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW
FAR TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH...WARM FRONT MAY HAVE A
HARD TIME MOVING THROUGH UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WED NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS UPPER ENERGY
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...RAIN MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT/SFC
WAVE. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME MONDAY...WITH PLENTY OF LIFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR AT THE SFC. ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO WOULD EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED AS WELL LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
WILL ADD IN ISOLATED THUNDER AND PATCHY FOG AS THE WARM FRONT SITS
NEARBY.

THEREAFTER...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS...ALTHOUGH HARD TO LEAVE
OUT POPS LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER LOW/COLD POOL.
BEST CHANCE THOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY PER MOS...ASSUMING
WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THEREAFTER. FOLLOWED
MEX/GRIDDED MOS AND WPC NUMBERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TODAY WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LATE
TONIGHT.

VFR TODAY AND THRU AT LEAST MOST OF TONIGHT. NE WINDS SHIFT ESE
TOWARDS NOON AT AROUND 10KT. TIMING OF THIS SHIFT COULD BE OFF BY
1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR...CHC MVFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH -RA. EAST GUSTS 20-25KT
LATE.
.MON...IFR. RAIN. LLWS MOSTLY AM. ESE WIND 15 KT TO 25 KT...GUSTS
AROUND 30KT.
.TUE...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. WEST GUSTS 25-30KT.
.WED...MVFR POSSIBLE PM WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CHC SW GUSTS 20KT
PM.
.THU...VFR. CHC W GUSTS 20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS
OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE E. AT THIS TIME...NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING SEAS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TO SCA LEVELS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE HOISTED
AN SCA THERE STARTING AT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

BY MONDAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND HAVE SCA FOR COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
AS RESULT.

EXPECT E/SE WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH
BUILDING SEAS THE RESULT. IN FACT...A FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY. THE WINDS DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS THE
FRONT NEARS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY...AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...THEN
SUB SCA IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH
FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1
TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 190548
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
148 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH TODAY. THE HIGH SLIDES TO THE
EAST INTO TONIGHT...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTH...LIKELY MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS
AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST...KEEPING THINGS DRY AND PROMOTING NOTHING BUT SOME CIRRUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WINDS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS CLOSE
TO FORECAST. THESE LOWS ARE BASED ON AT LEAST LIGHT N-NE WINDS
CONTINUING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY...WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NEAR THE HUDSON RIVER BY
AROUND 00Z MONDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER
WESTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-875
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV...MET AND ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
UNDER DEPARTING RIDGE. SHOULD THEN HAVE SUFFICIENT WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT POPS
FROM CHANCE EASTERN ZONES (SLIGHT CHANCE FAR E NEW LONDON COUNTY)
TO CATEGORICAL OVER ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA AFTER 6Z.

WITH A 45-55 KT LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO IMPINGE ON THE CWA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW...BELIEVE MARINE INVERSION WILL KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR
THE COAST. GUSTS SHOULD BE 25 MPH OR LESS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
GUSTING OVER N INTERIOR ZONES.

FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECASTED.WOULD EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY TRAVERSES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST...AND EVENTUAL PACIFIC NW
ENERGY SHOULD KICK THIS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST OUT BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE...TRIPLE POINT NEARING THE AREA. WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW
FAR TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH...WARM FRONT MAY HAVE A
HARD TIME MOVING THROUGH UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WED NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS UPPER ENERGY
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...RAIN MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT/SFC
WAVE. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME MONDAY...WITH PLENTY OF LIFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR AT THE SFC. ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO WOULD EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED AS WELL LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
WILL ADD IN ISOLATED THUNDER AND PATCHY FOG AS THE WARM FRONT SITS
NEARBY.

THEREAFTER...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS...ALTHOUGH HARD TO LEAVE
OUT POPS LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER LOW/COLD POOL.
BEST CHANCE THOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY PER MOS...ASSUMING
WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THEREAFTER. FOLLOWED
MEX/GRIDDED MOS AND WPC NUMBERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TODAY WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LATE
TONIGHT.

VFR TODAY AND THRU AT LEAST MOST OF TONIGHT. NE WINDS SHIFT ESE
TOWARDS NOON AT AROUND 10KT. TIMING OF THIS SHIFT COULD BE OFF BY
1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR...CHC MVFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH -RA. EAST GUSTS 20-25KT
LATE.
.MON...IFR. RAIN. LLWS MOSTLY AM. ESE WIND 15 KT TO 25 KT...GUSTS
AROUND 30KT.
.TUE...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. WEST GUSTS 25-30KT.
.WED...MVFR POSSIBLE PM WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CHC SW GUSTS 20KT
PM.
.THU...VFR. CHC W GUSTS 20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS
OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE E. AT THIS TIME...NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING SEAS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TO SCA LEVELS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE HOISTED
AN SCA THERE STARTING AT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

BY MONDAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND HAVE SCA FOR COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
AS RESULT.

EXPECT E/SE WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH
BUILDING SEAS THE RESULT. IN FACT...A FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY. THE WINDS DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS THE
FRONT NEARS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY...AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...THEN
SUB SCA IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH
FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1
TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS61 KOKX 190548
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
148 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH TODAY. THE HIGH SLIDES TO THE
EAST INTO TONIGHT...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTH...LIKELY MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS
AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST...KEEPING THINGS DRY AND PROMOTING NOTHING BUT SOME CIRRUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WINDS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS CLOSE
TO FORECAST. THESE LOWS ARE BASED ON AT LEAST LIGHT N-NE WINDS
CONTINUING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY...WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NEAR THE HUDSON RIVER BY
AROUND 00Z MONDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER
WESTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-875
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV...MET AND ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
UNDER DEPARTING RIDGE. SHOULD THEN HAVE SUFFICIENT WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT POPS
FROM CHANCE EASTERN ZONES (SLIGHT CHANCE FAR E NEW LONDON COUNTY)
TO CATEGORICAL OVER ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA AFTER 6Z.

WITH A 45-55 KT LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO IMPINGE ON THE CWA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW...BELIEVE MARINE INVERSION WILL KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR
THE COAST. GUSTS SHOULD BE 25 MPH OR LESS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
GUSTING OVER N INTERIOR ZONES.

FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECASTED.WOULD EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY TRAVERSES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST...AND EVENTUAL PACIFIC NW
ENERGY SHOULD KICK THIS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST OUT BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE...TRIPLE POINT NEARING THE AREA. WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW
FAR TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH...WARM FRONT MAY HAVE A
HARD TIME MOVING THROUGH UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WED NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS UPPER ENERGY
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...RAIN MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT/SFC
WAVE. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME MONDAY...WITH PLENTY OF LIFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR AT THE SFC. ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO WOULD EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED AS WELL LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
WILL ADD IN ISOLATED THUNDER AND PATCHY FOG AS THE WARM FRONT SITS
NEARBY.

THEREAFTER...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS...ALTHOUGH HARD TO LEAVE
OUT POPS LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER LOW/COLD POOL.
BEST CHANCE THOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY PER MOS...ASSUMING
WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THEREAFTER. FOLLOWED
MEX/GRIDDED MOS AND WPC NUMBERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TODAY WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LATE
TONIGHT.

VFR TODAY AND THRU AT LEAST MOST OF TONIGHT. NE WINDS SHIFT ESE
TOWARDS NOON AT AROUND 10KT. TIMING OF THIS SHIFT COULD BE OFF BY
1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR...CHC MVFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH -RA. EAST GUSTS 20-25KT
LATE.
.MON...IFR. RAIN. LLWS MOSTLY AM. ESE WIND 15 KT TO 25 KT...GUSTS
AROUND 30KT.
.TUE...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. WEST GUSTS 25-30KT.
.WED...MVFR POSSIBLE PM WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CHC SW GUSTS 20KT
PM.
.THU...VFR. CHC W GUSTS 20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS
OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE E. AT THIS TIME...NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING SEAS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TO SCA LEVELS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE HOISTED
AN SCA THERE STARTING AT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

BY MONDAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND HAVE SCA FOR COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
AS RESULT.

EXPECT E/SE WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH
BUILDING SEAS THE RESULT. IN FACT...A FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY. THE WINDS DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS THE
FRONT NEARS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY...AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...THEN
SUB SCA IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH
FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1
TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 190233
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1033 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH
SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LIKELY MOVING
THROUGH SOMETIME LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS OF 00Z...PUSHING THE SEA
BREEZE BACK SOUTH AND OUT TO SEA. THIS HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO
CAPTURE THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. THIS ACCOUNTS
FOR A 4 DEGREE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE AND 14 DEGREE DECREASE IN
DEWPOINT WHEN WINDS SHIFTED TO THE NW AT KHPN FROM 23Z TO 00Z.
MADE CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND PROMOTE
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WINDS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS CLOSE
TO FORECAST...SO NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EVENING UPDATE. THESE LOWS
ARE BASED ON AT LEAST LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY...WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NEAR THE HUDSON RIVER BY
AROUND 00Z MONDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER
WESTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-875
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV...MET AND ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
UNDER DEPARTING RIDGE. SHOULD THEN HAVE SUFFICIENT WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT POPS
FROM CHANCE EASTERN ZONES (SLIGHT CHANCE FAR E NEW LONDON COUNTY)
TO CATEGORICAL OVER ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA AFTER 6Z.

WITH A 45-55 KT LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO IMPINGE ON THE CWA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW...BELIEVE MARINE INVERSION WILL KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR
THE COAST. GUSTS SHOULD BE 25 MPH OR LESS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
GUSTING OVER N INTERIOR ZONES.

FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECASTED.WOULD EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY TRAVERSES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST...AND EVENTUAL PACIFIC NW
ENERGY SHOULD KICK THIS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST OUT BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE...TRIPLE POINT NEARING THE AREA. WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW
FAR TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH...WARM FRONT MAY HAVE A
HARD TIME MOVING THROUGH UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WED NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS UPPER ENERGY
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...RAIN MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT/SFC
WAVE. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME MONDAY...WITH PLENTY OF LIFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR AT THE SFC. ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO WOULD EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED AS WELL LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
WILL ADD IN ISOLATED THUNDER AND PATCHY FOG AS THE WARM FRONT SITS
NEARBY.

THEREAFTER...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS...ALTHOUGH HARD TO LEAVE
OUT POPS LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER LOW/COLD POOL.
BEST CHANCE THOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY PER MOS...ASSUMING
WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THEREAFTER. FOLLOWED
MEX/GRIDDED MOS AND WPC NUMBERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
DURING SUNDAY.

VFR. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND WILL BE GUSTY...UP TO 25 KT...UNTIL
AROUND 03Z. THE WIND GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AT
KJFK...IF THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS WILL BE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. LLWS DEVELOPING LATE. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 15 KT WITH G20-25KT LATE.
.MON...MVFR/IFR. RAIN. LLWS EARLY. ESE WIND 15 KT TO 25 KT...GUSTS
AROUND G30KT.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.
.WED-THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
THEREAFTER WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS
OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE E. AT THIS TIME...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
IN GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO SCA LEVELS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE HOISTED AN SCA
THERE STARTING AT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

BY MONDAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND HAVE SCA FOR COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
AS RESULT.

EXPECT E/SE WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH
BUILDING SEAS THE RESULT. IN FACT...A FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY. THE WINDS DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS THE
FRONT NEARS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY...AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...THEN
SUB SCA IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH
FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1
TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JP/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 190233
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1033 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH
SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LIKELY MOVING
THROUGH SOMETIME LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS OF 00Z...PUSHING THE SEA
BREEZE BACK SOUTH AND OUT TO SEA. THIS HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO
CAPTURE THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. THIS ACCOUNTS
FOR A 4 DEGREE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE AND 14 DEGREE DECREASE IN
DEWPOINT WHEN WINDS SHIFTED TO THE NW AT KHPN FROM 23Z TO 00Z.
MADE CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND PROMOTE
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WINDS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS CLOSE
TO FORECAST...SO NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EVENING UPDATE. THESE LOWS
ARE BASED ON AT LEAST LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY...WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NEAR THE HUDSON RIVER BY
AROUND 00Z MONDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER
WESTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-875
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV...MET AND ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
UNDER DEPARTING RIDGE. SHOULD THEN HAVE SUFFICIENT WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT POPS
FROM CHANCE EASTERN ZONES (SLIGHT CHANCE FAR E NEW LONDON COUNTY)
TO CATEGORICAL OVER ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA AFTER 6Z.

WITH A 45-55 KT LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO IMPINGE ON THE CWA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW...BELIEVE MARINE INVERSION WILL KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR
THE COAST. GUSTS SHOULD BE 25 MPH OR LESS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
GUSTING OVER N INTERIOR ZONES.

FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECASTED.WOULD EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY TRAVERSES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST...AND EVENTUAL PACIFIC NW
ENERGY SHOULD KICK THIS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST OUT BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE...TRIPLE POINT NEARING THE AREA. WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW
FAR TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH...WARM FRONT MAY HAVE A
HARD TIME MOVING THROUGH UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WED NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS UPPER ENERGY
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...RAIN MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT/SFC
WAVE. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME MONDAY...WITH PLENTY OF LIFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR AT THE SFC. ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO WOULD EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED AS WELL LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
WILL ADD IN ISOLATED THUNDER AND PATCHY FOG AS THE WARM FRONT SITS
NEARBY.

THEREAFTER...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS...ALTHOUGH HARD TO LEAVE
OUT POPS LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER LOW/COLD POOL.
BEST CHANCE THOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY PER MOS...ASSUMING
WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THEREAFTER. FOLLOWED
MEX/GRIDDED MOS AND WPC NUMBERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
DURING SUNDAY.

VFR. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND WILL BE GUSTY...UP TO 25 KT...UNTIL
AROUND 03Z. THE WIND GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AT
KJFK...IF THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS WILL BE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. LLWS DEVELOPING LATE. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 15 KT WITH G20-25KT LATE.
.MON...MVFR/IFR. RAIN. LLWS EARLY. ESE WIND 15 KT TO 25 KT...GUSTS
AROUND G30KT.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.
.WED-THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
THEREAFTER WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS
OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE E. AT THIS TIME...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
IN GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO SCA LEVELS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE HOISTED AN SCA
THERE STARTING AT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

BY MONDAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND HAVE SCA FOR COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
AS RESULT.

EXPECT E/SE WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH
BUILDING SEAS THE RESULT. IN FACT...A FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY. THE WINDS DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS THE
FRONT NEARS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY...AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...THEN
SUB SCA IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH
FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1
TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JP/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 190233
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1033 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH
SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LIKELY MOVING
THROUGH SOMETIME LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS OF 00Z...PUSHING THE SEA
BREEZE BACK SOUTH AND OUT TO SEA. THIS HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO
CAPTURE THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. THIS ACCOUNTS
FOR A 4 DEGREE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE AND 14 DEGREE DECREASE IN
DEWPOINT WHEN WINDS SHIFTED TO THE NW AT KHPN FROM 23Z TO 00Z.
MADE CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND PROMOTE
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WINDS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS CLOSE
TO FORECAST...SO NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EVENING UPDATE. THESE LOWS
ARE BASED ON AT LEAST LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY...WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NEAR THE HUDSON RIVER BY
AROUND 00Z MONDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER
WESTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-875
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV...MET AND ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
UNDER DEPARTING RIDGE. SHOULD THEN HAVE SUFFICIENT WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT POPS
FROM CHANCE EASTERN ZONES (SLIGHT CHANCE FAR E NEW LONDON COUNTY)
TO CATEGORICAL OVER ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA AFTER 6Z.

WITH A 45-55 KT LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO IMPINGE ON THE CWA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW...BELIEVE MARINE INVERSION WILL KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR
THE COAST. GUSTS SHOULD BE 25 MPH OR LESS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
GUSTING OVER N INTERIOR ZONES.

FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECASTED.WOULD EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY TRAVERSES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST...AND EVENTUAL PACIFIC NW
ENERGY SHOULD KICK THIS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST OUT BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE...TRIPLE POINT NEARING THE AREA. WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW
FAR TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH...WARM FRONT MAY HAVE A
HARD TIME MOVING THROUGH UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WED NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS UPPER ENERGY
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...RAIN MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT/SFC
WAVE. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME MONDAY...WITH PLENTY OF LIFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR AT THE SFC. ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO WOULD EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED AS WELL LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
WILL ADD IN ISOLATED THUNDER AND PATCHY FOG AS THE WARM FRONT SITS
NEARBY.

THEREAFTER...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS...ALTHOUGH HARD TO LEAVE
OUT POPS LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER LOW/COLD POOL.
BEST CHANCE THOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY PER MOS...ASSUMING
WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THEREAFTER. FOLLOWED
MEX/GRIDDED MOS AND WPC NUMBERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
DURING SUNDAY.

VFR. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND WILL BE GUSTY...UP TO 25 KT...UNTIL
AROUND 03Z. THE WIND GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AT
KJFK...IF THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS WILL BE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. LLWS DEVELOPING LATE. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 15 KT WITH G20-25KT LATE.
.MON...MVFR/IFR. RAIN. LLWS EARLY. ESE WIND 15 KT TO 25 KT...GUSTS
AROUND G30KT.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.
.WED-THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
THEREAFTER WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS
OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE E. AT THIS TIME...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
IN GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO SCA LEVELS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE HOISTED AN SCA
THERE STARTING AT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

BY MONDAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND HAVE SCA FOR COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
AS RESULT.

EXPECT E/SE WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH
BUILDING SEAS THE RESULT. IN FACT...A FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY. THE WINDS DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS THE
FRONT NEARS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY...AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...THEN
SUB SCA IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH
FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1
TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JP/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 190156
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
956 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING....FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...LIKELY MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES TUESDAY. A SERIES OF
WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS OF 00Z...PUSHING THE SEA
BREEZE BACK SOUTH AND OUT TO SEA. THIS HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO
CAPTURE THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. THIS ACCOUNTS
FOR A 4 DEGREE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE AND 14 DEGREE DECREASE IN
DEWPOINT WHEN WINDS SHIFTED TO THE NW AT KHPN FROM 23Z TO 00Z.
MADE CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND PROMOTE
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WINDS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS CLOSE
TO FORECAST...SO NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EVENING UPDATE. THESE LOWS
ARE BASED ON AT LEAST LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY...WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NEAR THE HUDSON RIVER BY
AROUND 00Z MONDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER
WESTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-875
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV...MET AND ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
UNDER DEPARTING RIDGE. SHOULD THEN HAVE SUFFICIENT WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT POPS
FROM CHANCE EASTERN ZONES (SLIGHT CHANCE FAR E NEW LONDON COUNTY)
TO CATEGORICAL OVER ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA AFTER 6Z.

WITH A 45-55 KT LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO IMPINGE ON THE CWA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW...BELIEVE MARINE INVERSION WILL KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR
THE COAST. GUSTS SHOULD BE 25 MPH OR LESS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
GUSTING OVER N INTERIOR ZONES.

FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECASTED.WOULD EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY TRAVERSES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST...AND EVENTUAL PACIFIC NW
ENERGY SHOULD KICK THIS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST OUT BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE...TRIPLE POINT NEARING THE AREA. WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW
FAR TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH...WARM FRONT MAY HAVE A
HARD TIME MOVING THROUGH UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WED NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS UPPER ENERGY
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...RAIN MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT/SFC
WAVE. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME MONDAY...WITH PLENTY OF LIFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR AT THE SFC. ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO WOULD EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED AS WELL LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
WILL ADD IN ISOLATED THUNDER AND PATCHY FOG AS THE WARM FRONT SITS
NEARBY.

THEREAFTER...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS...ALTHOUGH HARD TO LEAVE
OUT POPS LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER LOW/COLD POOL.
BEST CHANCE THOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY PER MOS...ASSUMING
WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THEREAFTER. FOLLOWED
MEX/GRIDDED MOS AND WPC NUMBERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...00Z TO 03Z. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING
SUNDAY.

VFR. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND WILL BE
BRIEFLY GUSTY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT. THE WIND GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO
NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AT KJFK...IF THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS WILL BE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. LLWS DEVELOPING LATE. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 15 KT WITH G20-25KT LATE.
.MON...MVFR/IFR. RAIN. LLWS EARLY. ESE WIND 15 KT TO 25 KT...GUSTS
AROUND G30KT.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.
.WED-THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
THEREAFTER WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS
OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE E. AT THIS TIME...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
IN GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO SCA LEVELS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE HOISTED AN SCA
THERE STARTING AT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

BY MONDAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND HAVE SCA FOR COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
AS RESULT.

EXPECT E/SE WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH
BUILDING SEAS THE RESULT. IN FACT...A FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY. THE WINDS DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS THE
FRONT NEARS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY...AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...THEN
SUB SCA IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AS WINDS DIMINISH
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS RISE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH
FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1
TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JP/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MALOIT/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 190156
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
956 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING....FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...LIKELY MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES TUESDAY. A SERIES OF
WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS OF 00Z...PUSHING THE SEA
BREEZE BACK SOUTH AND OUT TO SEA. THIS HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO
CAPTURE THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. THIS ACCOUNTS
FOR A 4 DEGREE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE AND 14 DEGREE DECREASE IN
DEWPOINT WHEN WINDS SHIFTED TO THE NW AT KHPN FROM 23Z TO 00Z.
MADE CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND PROMOTE
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WINDS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS CLOSE
TO FORECAST...SO NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EVENING UPDATE. THESE LOWS
ARE BASED ON AT LEAST LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY...WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NEAR THE HUDSON RIVER BY
AROUND 00Z MONDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER
WESTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-875
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV...MET AND ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
UNDER DEPARTING RIDGE. SHOULD THEN HAVE SUFFICIENT WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT POPS
FROM CHANCE EASTERN ZONES (SLIGHT CHANCE FAR E NEW LONDON COUNTY)
TO CATEGORICAL OVER ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA AFTER 6Z.

WITH A 45-55 KT LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO IMPINGE ON THE CWA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW...BELIEVE MARINE INVERSION WILL KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR
THE COAST. GUSTS SHOULD BE 25 MPH OR LESS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
GUSTING OVER N INTERIOR ZONES.

FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECASTED.WOULD EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY TRAVERSES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST...AND EVENTUAL PACIFIC NW
ENERGY SHOULD KICK THIS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST OUT BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE...TRIPLE POINT NEARING THE AREA. WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW
FAR TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH...WARM FRONT MAY HAVE A
HARD TIME MOVING THROUGH UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WED NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS UPPER ENERGY
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...RAIN MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT/SFC
WAVE. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME MONDAY...WITH PLENTY OF LIFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR AT THE SFC. ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO WOULD EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED AS WELL LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
WILL ADD IN ISOLATED THUNDER AND PATCHY FOG AS THE WARM FRONT SITS
NEARBY.

THEREAFTER...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS...ALTHOUGH HARD TO LEAVE
OUT POPS LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER LOW/COLD POOL.
BEST CHANCE THOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY PER MOS...ASSUMING
WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THEREAFTER. FOLLOWED
MEX/GRIDDED MOS AND WPC NUMBERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...00Z TO 03Z. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING
SUNDAY.

VFR. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND WILL BE
BRIEFLY GUSTY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT. THE WIND GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO
NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AT KJFK...IF THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS WILL BE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. LLWS DEVELOPING LATE. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 15 KT WITH G20-25KT LATE.
.MON...MVFR/IFR. RAIN. LLWS EARLY. ESE WIND 15 KT TO 25 KT...GUSTS
AROUND G30KT.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.
.WED-THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
THEREAFTER WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS
OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE E. AT THIS TIME...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
IN GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO SCA LEVELS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE HOISTED AN SCA
THERE STARTING AT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

BY MONDAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND HAVE SCA FOR COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
AS RESULT.

EXPECT E/SE WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH
BUILDING SEAS THE RESULT. IN FACT...A FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY. THE WINDS DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS THE
FRONT NEARS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY...AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...THEN
SUB SCA IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AS WINDS DIMINISH
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS RISE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH
FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1
TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JP/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MALOIT/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 190004
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
804 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING....FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...LIKELY MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES TUESDAY. A SERIES OF
WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT BISECTING THE AREA THIS EVENING.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND PROMOTE
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WINDS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS CLOSE
TO FORECAST...SO NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EVENING UPDATE. THESE LOWS
ARE BASED ON AT LEAST LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY...WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NEAR THE HUDSON RIVER BY
AROUND 00Z MONDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER
WESTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-875
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV...MET AND ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
UNDER DEPARTING RIDGE. SHOULD THEN HAVE SUFFICIENT WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT POPS
FROM CHANCE EASTERN ZONES (SLIGHT CHANCE FAR E NEW LONDON COUNTY)
TO CATEGORICAL OVER ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA AFTER 6Z.

WITH A 45-55 KT LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO IMPINGE ON THE CWA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW...BELIEVE MARINE INVERSION WILL KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR
THE COAST. GUSTS SHOULD BE 25 MPH OR LESS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
GUSTING OVER N INTERIOR ZONES.

FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECASTED.WOULD EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY TRAVERSES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST...AND EVENTUAL PACIFIC NW
ENERGY SHOULD KICK THIS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST OUT BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE...TRIPLE POINT NEARING THE AREA. WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW
FAR TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH...WARM FRONT MAY HAVE A
HARD TIME MOVING THROUGH UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WED NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS UPPER ENERGY
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...RAIN MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT/SFC
WAVE. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME MONDAY...WITH PLENTY OF LIFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR AT THE SFC. ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO WOULD EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED AS WELL LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
WILL ADD IN ISOLATED THUNDER AND PATCHY FOG AS THE WARM FRONT SITS
NEARBY.

THEREAFTER...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS...ALTHOUGH HARD TO LEAVE
OUT POPS LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER LOW/COLD POOL.
BEST CHANCE THOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY PER MOS...ASSUMING
WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THEREAFTER. FOLLOWED
MEX/GRIDDED MOS AND WPC NUMBERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...00Z TO 03Z. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING
SUNDAY.

VFR. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND WILL BE
BRIEFLY GUSTY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT. THE WIND GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO
NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AT KJFK...IF THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS WILL BE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. LLWS DEVELOPING LATE. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 15 KT WITH G20-25KT LATE.
.MON...MVFR/IFR. RAIN. LLWS EARLY. ESE WIND 15 KT TO 25 KT...GUSTS
AROUND G30KT.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.
.WED-THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
THEREAFTER WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS
OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE E. AT THIS TIME...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
IN GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO SCA LEVELS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE HOISTED AN SCA
THERE STARTING AT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

BY MONDAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND HAVE SCA FOR COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
AS RESULT.

EXPECT E/SE WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH
BUILDING SEAS THE RESULT. IN FACT...A FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY. THE WINDS DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS THE
FRONT NEARS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY...AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...THEN
SUB SCA IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AS WINDS DIMINISH
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS RISE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH
FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1
TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MALOIT/PW
FIRE WEATHER...PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 190004
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
804 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING....FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...LIKELY MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES TUESDAY. A SERIES OF
WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT BISECTING THE AREA THIS EVENING.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND PROMOTE
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WINDS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS CLOSE
TO FORECAST...SO NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EVENING UPDATE. THESE LOWS
ARE BASED ON AT LEAST LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY...WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NEAR THE HUDSON RIVER BY
AROUND 00Z MONDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER
WESTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-875
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV...MET AND ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
UNDER DEPARTING RIDGE. SHOULD THEN HAVE SUFFICIENT WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT POPS
FROM CHANCE EASTERN ZONES (SLIGHT CHANCE FAR E NEW LONDON COUNTY)
TO CATEGORICAL OVER ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA AFTER 6Z.

WITH A 45-55 KT LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO IMPINGE ON THE CWA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW...BELIEVE MARINE INVERSION WILL KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR
THE COAST. GUSTS SHOULD BE 25 MPH OR LESS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
GUSTING OVER N INTERIOR ZONES.

FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECASTED.WOULD EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY TRAVERSES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST...AND EVENTUAL PACIFIC NW
ENERGY SHOULD KICK THIS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST OUT BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE...TRIPLE POINT NEARING THE AREA. WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW
FAR TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH...WARM FRONT MAY HAVE A
HARD TIME MOVING THROUGH UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WED NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS UPPER ENERGY
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...RAIN MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT/SFC
WAVE. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME MONDAY...WITH PLENTY OF LIFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR AT THE SFC. ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO WOULD EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED AS WELL LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
WILL ADD IN ISOLATED THUNDER AND PATCHY FOG AS THE WARM FRONT SITS
NEARBY.

THEREAFTER...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS...ALTHOUGH HARD TO LEAVE
OUT POPS LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER LOW/COLD POOL.
BEST CHANCE THOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY PER MOS...ASSUMING
WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THEREAFTER. FOLLOWED
MEX/GRIDDED MOS AND WPC NUMBERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...00Z TO 03Z. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING
SUNDAY.

VFR. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND WILL BE
BRIEFLY GUSTY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT. THE WIND GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO
NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AT KJFK...IF THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS WILL BE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. LLWS DEVELOPING LATE. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 15 KT WITH G20-25KT LATE.
.MON...MVFR/IFR. RAIN. LLWS EARLY. ESE WIND 15 KT TO 25 KT...GUSTS
AROUND G30KT.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.
.WED-THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
THEREAFTER WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS
OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE E. AT THIS TIME...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
IN GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO SCA LEVELS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE HOISTED AN SCA
THERE STARTING AT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

BY MONDAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND HAVE SCA FOR COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
AS RESULT.

EXPECT E/SE WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH
BUILDING SEAS THE RESULT. IN FACT...A FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY. THE WINDS DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS THE
FRONT NEARS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY...AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...THEN
SUB SCA IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AS WINDS DIMINISH
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS RISE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH
FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1
TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MALOIT/PW
FIRE WEATHER...PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 182130
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
530 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING....FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...LIKELY MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES TUESDAY. A SERIES OF
WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND PROMOTE
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND
SHOULD BE A FEW TO FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER...EXACTLY HOW MUCH DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. IF MORE
DECOUPLING OCCURS THEN CURRENTLY EXPECTED - THEN WOULD NEED TO
LOWER LOWS WHERE THIS OCCURS BY 5 DEGREES OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY...WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NEAR THE HUDSON RIVER BY
AROUND 00Z MONDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER
WESTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-875
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV...MET AND ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
UNDER DEPARTING RIDGE. SHOULD THEN HAVE SUFFICIENT WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT POPS
FROM CHANCE EASTERN ZONES (SLIGHT CHANCE FAR E NEW LONDON COUNTY)
TO CATEGORICAL OVER ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA AFTER 6Z.

WITH A 45-55 KT LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO IMPINGE ON THE CWA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW...BELIEVE MARINE INVERSION WILL KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR
THE COAST. GUSTS SHOULD BE 25 MPH OR LESS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
GUSTING OVER N INTERIOR ZONES.

FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECASTED.WOULD EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY TRAVERSES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST...AND EVENTUAL PACIFIC NW
ENERGY SHOULD KICK THIS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST OUT BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE...TRIPLE POINT NEARING THE AREA. WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW
FAR TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH...WARM FRONT MAY HAVE A
HARD TIME MOVING THROUGH UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WED NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS UPPER ENERGY
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...RAIN MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT/SFC
WAVE. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME MONDAY...WITH PLENTY OF LIFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR AT THE SFC. ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO WOULD EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED AS WELL LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
WILL ADD IN ISOLATED THUNDER AND PATCHY FOG AS THE WARM FRONT SITS
NEARBY.

THEREAFTER...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS...ALTHOUGH HARD TO LEAVE
OUT POPS LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER LOW/COLD POOL.
BEST CHANCE THOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY PER MOS...ASSUMING
WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THEREAFTER. FOLLOWED
MEX/GRIDDED MOS AND WPC NUMBERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE TERMINALS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. W-WNW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AWAY FROM THE COAST. S-SW SEA BREEZES AT
KJFK/KLGA/KISP/KBDR/KGON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW THIS EVENING
WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT.
GUSTS END BY 06Z...WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NE. NE WINDS CONTINUE
SUNDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN...VFR. WINDS BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.
.SUN NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. LLWS DEVELOPING LATE. ESE G20-25KT
LATE.
.MON...MVFR/IFR. RAIN. LLWS EARLY. INCREASING ESE SFC WIND.
G30KT.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.  WEST G25KT.
.WED-THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS EVENING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 25 KT...THEN WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT OR LESS ON
ALL WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
WINDS INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE E. AT THIS TIME...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TO SCA LEVELS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
HAVE HOISTED AN SCA THERE STARTING AT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
RESULT.

BY MONDAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND HAVE SCA FOR COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
AS RESULT.

EXPECT E/SE WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH
BUILDING SEAS THE RESULT. IN FACT...A FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY. THE WINDS DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS THE
FRONT NEARS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY...AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...THEN
SUB SCA IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CSTL CT...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED DUE TO
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30
PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTS
MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. A
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH
FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1
TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>007.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>074.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MALOIT/PW
FIRE WEATHER...PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 182130
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
530 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING....FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...LIKELY MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES TUESDAY. A SERIES OF
WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND PROMOTE
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND
SHOULD BE A FEW TO FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER...EXACTLY HOW MUCH DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. IF MORE
DECOUPLING OCCURS THEN CURRENTLY EXPECTED - THEN WOULD NEED TO
LOWER LOWS WHERE THIS OCCURS BY 5 DEGREES OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY...WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NEAR THE HUDSON RIVER BY
AROUND 00Z MONDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER
WESTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-875
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV...MET AND ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
UNDER DEPARTING RIDGE. SHOULD THEN HAVE SUFFICIENT WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT POPS
FROM CHANCE EASTERN ZONES (SLIGHT CHANCE FAR E NEW LONDON COUNTY)
TO CATEGORICAL OVER ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA AFTER 6Z.

WITH A 45-55 KT LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO IMPINGE ON THE CWA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW...BELIEVE MARINE INVERSION WILL KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR
THE COAST. GUSTS SHOULD BE 25 MPH OR LESS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
GUSTING OVER N INTERIOR ZONES.

FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECASTED.WOULD EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY TRAVERSES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST...AND EVENTUAL PACIFIC NW
ENERGY SHOULD KICK THIS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST OUT BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE...TRIPLE POINT NEARING THE AREA. WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW
FAR TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH...WARM FRONT MAY HAVE A
HARD TIME MOVING THROUGH UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WED NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS UPPER ENERGY
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...RAIN MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT/SFC
WAVE. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME MONDAY...WITH PLENTY OF LIFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR AT THE SFC. ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO WOULD EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED AS WELL LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
WILL ADD IN ISOLATED THUNDER AND PATCHY FOG AS THE WARM FRONT SITS
NEARBY.

THEREAFTER...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS...ALTHOUGH HARD TO LEAVE
OUT POPS LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER LOW/COLD POOL.
BEST CHANCE THOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY PER MOS...ASSUMING
WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THEREAFTER. FOLLOWED
MEX/GRIDDED MOS AND WPC NUMBERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE TERMINALS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. W-WNW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AWAY FROM THE COAST. S-SW SEA BREEZES AT
KJFK/KLGA/KISP/KBDR/KGON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW THIS EVENING
WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT.
GUSTS END BY 06Z...WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NE. NE WINDS CONTINUE
SUNDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN...VFR. WINDS BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.
.SUN NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. LLWS DEVELOPING LATE. ESE G20-25KT
LATE.
.MON...MVFR/IFR. RAIN. LLWS EARLY. INCREASING ESE SFC WIND.
G30KT.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.  WEST G25KT.
.WED-THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS EVENING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 25 KT...THEN WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT OR LESS ON
ALL WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
WINDS INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE E. AT THIS TIME...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TO SCA LEVELS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
HAVE HOISTED AN SCA THERE STARTING AT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
RESULT.

BY MONDAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND HAVE SCA FOR COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
AS RESULT.

EXPECT E/SE WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH
BUILDING SEAS THE RESULT. IN FACT...A FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY. THE WINDS DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS THE
FRONT NEARS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY...AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...THEN
SUB SCA IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CSTL CT...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED DUE TO
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30
PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTS
MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. A
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH
FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1
TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>007.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>074.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MALOIT/PW
FIRE WEATHER...PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 182130
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
530 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING....FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...LIKELY MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES TUESDAY. A SERIES OF
WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND PROMOTE
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND
SHOULD BE A FEW TO FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER...EXACTLY HOW MUCH DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. IF MORE
DECOUPLING OCCURS THEN CURRENTLY EXPECTED - THEN WOULD NEED TO
LOWER LOWS WHERE THIS OCCURS BY 5 DEGREES OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY...WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NEAR THE HUDSON RIVER BY
AROUND 00Z MONDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER
WESTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-875
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV...MET AND ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
UNDER DEPARTING RIDGE. SHOULD THEN HAVE SUFFICIENT WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT POPS
FROM CHANCE EASTERN ZONES (SLIGHT CHANCE FAR E NEW LONDON COUNTY)
TO CATEGORICAL OVER ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA AFTER 6Z.

WITH A 45-55 KT LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO IMPINGE ON THE CWA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW...BELIEVE MARINE INVERSION WILL KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR
THE COAST. GUSTS SHOULD BE 25 MPH OR LESS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
GUSTING OVER N INTERIOR ZONES.

FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECASTED.WOULD EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY TRAVERSES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST...AND EVENTUAL PACIFIC NW
ENERGY SHOULD KICK THIS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST OUT BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE...TRIPLE POINT NEARING THE AREA. WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW
FAR TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH...WARM FRONT MAY HAVE A
HARD TIME MOVING THROUGH UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WED NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS UPPER ENERGY
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...RAIN MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT/SFC
WAVE. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME MONDAY...WITH PLENTY OF LIFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR AT THE SFC. ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO WOULD EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED AS WELL LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
WILL ADD IN ISOLATED THUNDER AND PATCHY FOG AS THE WARM FRONT SITS
NEARBY.

THEREAFTER...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS...ALTHOUGH HARD TO LEAVE
OUT POPS LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER LOW/COLD POOL.
BEST CHANCE THOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY PER MOS...ASSUMING
WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THEREAFTER. FOLLOWED
MEX/GRIDDED MOS AND WPC NUMBERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE TERMINALS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. W-WNW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AWAY FROM THE COAST. S-SW SEA BREEZES AT
KJFK/KLGA/KISP/KBDR/KGON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW THIS EVENING
WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT.
GUSTS END BY 06Z...WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NE. NE WINDS CONTINUE
SUNDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN...VFR. WINDS BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.
.SUN NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. LLWS DEVELOPING LATE. ESE G20-25KT
LATE.
.MON...MVFR/IFR. RAIN. LLWS EARLY. INCREASING ESE SFC WIND.
G30KT.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.  WEST G25KT.
.WED-THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS EVENING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 25 KT...THEN WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT OR LESS ON
ALL WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
WINDS INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE E. AT THIS TIME...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TO SCA LEVELS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
HAVE HOISTED AN SCA THERE STARTING AT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
RESULT.

BY MONDAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND HAVE SCA FOR COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
AS RESULT.

EXPECT E/SE WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH
BUILDING SEAS THE RESULT. IN FACT...A FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY. THE WINDS DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS THE
FRONT NEARS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY...AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...THEN
SUB SCA IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CSTL CT...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED DUE TO
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30
PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTS
MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. A
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH
FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1
TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>007.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>074.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MALOIT/PW
FIRE WEATHER...PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 182130
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
530 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING....FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...LIKELY MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES TUESDAY. A SERIES OF
WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND PROMOTE
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND
SHOULD BE A FEW TO FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER...EXACTLY HOW MUCH DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. IF MORE
DECOUPLING OCCURS THEN CURRENTLY EXPECTED - THEN WOULD NEED TO
LOWER LOWS WHERE THIS OCCURS BY 5 DEGREES OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY...WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NEAR THE HUDSON RIVER BY
AROUND 00Z MONDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER
WESTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-875
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV...MET AND ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
UNDER DEPARTING RIDGE. SHOULD THEN HAVE SUFFICIENT WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT POPS
FROM CHANCE EASTERN ZONES (SLIGHT CHANCE FAR E NEW LONDON COUNTY)
TO CATEGORICAL OVER ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA AFTER 6Z.

WITH A 45-55 KT LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO IMPINGE ON THE CWA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW...BELIEVE MARINE INVERSION WILL KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR
THE COAST. GUSTS SHOULD BE 25 MPH OR LESS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
GUSTING OVER N INTERIOR ZONES.

FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECASTED.WOULD EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY TRAVERSES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST...AND EVENTUAL PACIFIC NW
ENERGY SHOULD KICK THIS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST OUT BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE...TRIPLE POINT NEARING THE AREA. WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW
FAR TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH...WARM FRONT MAY HAVE A
HARD TIME MOVING THROUGH UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WED NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS UPPER ENERGY
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...RAIN MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT/SFC
WAVE. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME MONDAY...WITH PLENTY OF LIFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR AT THE SFC. ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO WOULD EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED AS WELL LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
WILL ADD IN ISOLATED THUNDER AND PATCHY FOG AS THE WARM FRONT SITS
NEARBY.

THEREAFTER...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS...ALTHOUGH HARD TO LEAVE
OUT POPS LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER LOW/COLD POOL.
BEST CHANCE THOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY PER MOS...ASSUMING
WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THEREAFTER. FOLLOWED
MEX/GRIDDED MOS AND WPC NUMBERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE TERMINALS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. W-WNW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AWAY FROM THE COAST. S-SW SEA BREEZES AT
KJFK/KLGA/KISP/KBDR/KGON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW THIS EVENING
WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT.
GUSTS END BY 06Z...WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NE. NE WINDS CONTINUE
SUNDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN...VFR. WINDS BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.
.SUN NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. LLWS DEVELOPING LATE. ESE G20-25KT
LATE.
.MON...MVFR/IFR. RAIN. LLWS EARLY. INCREASING ESE SFC WIND.
G30KT.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.  WEST G25KT.
.WED-THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS EVENING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 25 KT...THEN WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT OR LESS ON
ALL WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
WINDS INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE E. AT THIS TIME...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TO SCA LEVELS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
HAVE HOISTED AN SCA THERE STARTING AT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
RESULT.

BY MONDAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND HAVE SCA FOR COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
AS RESULT.

EXPECT E/SE WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH
BUILDING SEAS THE RESULT. IN FACT...A FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY. THE WINDS DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS THE
FRONT NEARS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY...AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...THEN
SUB SCA IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CSTL CT...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED DUE TO
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30
PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTS
MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. A
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH
FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1
TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>007.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>074.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MALOIT/PW
FIRE WEATHER...PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 181948
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
348 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING....FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...LIKELY MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES TUESDAY. A SERIES OF
WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND PROMOTE
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND
SHOULD BE A FEW TO FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER...EXACTLY HOW MUCH DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. IF MORE
DECOUPLING OCCURS THEN CURRENTLY EXPECTED - THEN WOULD NEED TO
LOWER LOWS WHERE THIS OCCURS BY 5 DEGREES OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY...WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NEAR THE HUDSON RIVER BY
AROUND 00Z MONDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER
WESTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-875
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV...MET AND ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
UNDER DEPARTING RIDGE. SHOULD THEN HAVE SUFFICIENT WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT POPS
FROM CHANCE EASTERN ZONES (SLIGHT CHANCE FAR E NEW LONDON COUNTY)
TO CATEGORICAL OVER ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA AFTER 6Z.

WITH A 45-55 KT LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO IMPINGE ON THE CWA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW...BELIEVE MARINE INVERSION WILL KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR
THE COAST. GUSTS SHOULD BE 25 MPH OR LESS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
GUSTING OVER N INTERIOR ZONES.

FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECASTED.WOULD EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY TRAVERSES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST...AND EVENTUAL PACIFIC NW
ENERGY SHOULD KICK THIS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST OUT BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE...TRIPLE POINT NEARING THE AREA. WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW
FAR TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH...WARM FRONT MAY HAVE A
HARD TIME MOVING THROUGH UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WED NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS UPPER ENERGY
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...RAIN MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT/SFC
WAVE. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME MONDAY...WITH PLENTY OF LIFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR AT THE SFC. ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO WOULD EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED AS WELL LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
WILL ADD IN ISOLATED THUNDER AND PATCHY FOG AS THE WARM FRONT SITS
NEARBY.

THEREAFTER...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS...ALTHOUGH HARD TO LEAVE
OUT POPS LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER LOW/COLD POOL.
BEST CHANCE THOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY PER MOS...ASSUMING
WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THEREAFTER. FOLLOWED
MEX/GRIDDED MOS AND WPC NUMBERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE TERMINALS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. W-WNW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AWAY FROM THE COAST. S-SW SEA BREEZES AT
KJFK/KLGA/KISP/KBDR/KGON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW THIS EVENING
WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT.
GUSTS END BY 06Z...WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NE. NE WINDS CONTINUE
SUNDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN...VFR. WINDS BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.
.SUN NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. LLWS DEVELOPING LATE. ESE G20-25KT
LATE.
.MON...MVFR/IFR. RAIN. LLWS EARLY. INCREASING ESE SFC WIND.
G30KT.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.  WEST G25KT.
.WED-THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS EVENING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 25 KT...THEN WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT OR LESS ON
ALL WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
WINDS INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE E. AT THIS TIME...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TO SCA LEVELS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
HAVE HOISTED AN SCA THERE STARTING AT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
RESULT.

BY MONDAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND HAVE SCA FOR COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
AS RESULT.

EXPECT E/SE WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH
BUILDING SEAS THE RESULT. IN FACT...A FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY. THE WINDS DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS THE
FRONT NEARS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY...AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...THEN
SUB SCA IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-30 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE WHOLE CWA THROUGH 8 PM GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH
FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1
TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MALOIT/PW
FIRE WEATHER...MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 181948
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
348 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING....FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...LIKELY MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES TUESDAY. A SERIES OF
WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND PROMOTE
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND
SHOULD BE A FEW TO FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER...EXACTLY HOW MUCH DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. IF MORE
DECOUPLING OCCURS THEN CURRENTLY EXPECTED - THEN WOULD NEED TO
LOWER LOWS WHERE THIS OCCURS BY 5 DEGREES OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY...WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NEAR THE HUDSON RIVER BY
AROUND 00Z MONDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER
WESTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-875
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV...MET AND ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
UNDER DEPARTING RIDGE. SHOULD THEN HAVE SUFFICIENT WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT POPS
FROM CHANCE EASTERN ZONES (SLIGHT CHANCE FAR E NEW LONDON COUNTY)
TO CATEGORICAL OVER ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA AFTER 6Z.

WITH A 45-55 KT LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO IMPINGE ON THE CWA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW...BELIEVE MARINE INVERSION WILL KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR
THE COAST. GUSTS SHOULD BE 25 MPH OR LESS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
GUSTING OVER N INTERIOR ZONES.

FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECASTED.WOULD EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY TRAVERSES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST...AND EVENTUAL PACIFIC NW
ENERGY SHOULD KICK THIS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST OUT BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE...TRIPLE POINT NEARING THE AREA. WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW
FAR TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH...WARM FRONT MAY HAVE A
HARD TIME MOVING THROUGH UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WED NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS UPPER ENERGY
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...RAIN MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT/SFC
WAVE. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME MONDAY...WITH PLENTY OF LIFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR AT THE SFC. ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO WOULD EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED AS WELL LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
WILL ADD IN ISOLATED THUNDER AND PATCHY FOG AS THE WARM FRONT SITS
NEARBY.

THEREAFTER...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS...ALTHOUGH HARD TO LEAVE
OUT POPS LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER LOW/COLD POOL.
BEST CHANCE THOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY PER MOS...ASSUMING
WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THEREAFTER. FOLLOWED
MEX/GRIDDED MOS AND WPC NUMBERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE TERMINALS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. W-WNW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AWAY FROM THE COAST. S-SW SEA BREEZES AT
KJFK/KLGA/KISP/KBDR/KGON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW THIS EVENING
WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT.
GUSTS END BY 06Z...WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NE. NE WINDS CONTINUE
SUNDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN...VFR. WINDS BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.
.SUN NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. LLWS DEVELOPING LATE. ESE G20-25KT
LATE.
.MON...MVFR/IFR. RAIN. LLWS EARLY. INCREASING ESE SFC WIND.
G30KT.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.  WEST G25KT.
.WED-THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS EVENING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 25 KT...THEN WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT OR LESS ON
ALL WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
WINDS INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE E. AT THIS TIME...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TO SCA LEVELS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
HAVE HOISTED AN SCA THERE STARTING AT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
RESULT.

BY MONDAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND HAVE SCA FOR COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
AS RESULT.

EXPECT E/SE WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH
BUILDING SEAS THE RESULT. IN FACT...A FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY. THE WINDS DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS THE
FRONT NEARS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY...AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...THEN
SUB SCA IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-30 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE WHOLE CWA THROUGH 8 PM GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH
FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1
TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MALOIT/PW
FIRE WEATHER...MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 181731
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
131 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A WARM
FRONT NEARS THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG THE FRONT PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR
TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURES WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE N/NE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STRENGTHENING WNW-NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AS A RESULT.

STILL ON TRACK TO HAVE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF A MAINLY SUNNY SKY...DEEP MIXING...850 MB
TEMPS RANGING FROM 7-10C...AND DOWNSLOPING WNW LOW
FLOW...INCREASING TO 15-25KT IN THE AFTERNOON - STRONGEST FAR N
AND FAR W ZONES. HIGHS WILL RUN AROUND 15-20 DEGREES AROUND
NORMAL...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE
NJ/NYC/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY REACHED OR BROKE THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

BASED ON LATEST TRENDS SHOWING TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE FORECAST...DID TWEAK HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH WITH ITS PASSAGE...BUT WINDS
DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AT 5-10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST EAST OF CAPE COD ON SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...USHERING A MUCH
COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT FOR LONG ISLAND
AND COASTAL CT...WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE BOTH
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE 00Z GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM BY A LITTLE...BUT
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS.

A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OR NEARBY JUST THE AREA
MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA NEARBY DECENT LIFT. LIFT
WILL BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...BY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND A 50-60 KT SE LOW LEVEL JET
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. THINKING IS THAT EASTERN
ZONES WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS IN GENERAL.
INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED
THUNDER MON NIGHT...WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE VARIABILITY AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE TRI STATE AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT. UP TO 2 INCHES LOCALLY
IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE SE FLOW PROBABLY ENHANCES OROGRAPHIC
LIFT...SO FORECAST AMOUNTS NW OF THE CITY COULD BE A LITTLE TOO
LOW. SO IN GENERAL...RAIN BECOMES LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
MOST SPOTS...WITH MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN
MONDAY MORNING. MID LEVELS DRY OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO LIGHT
RAINFALL OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE WOULD BE EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE
DAY. LIGHT RAIN REMAINS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WAVE CENTER MOVES THROUGH. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED MON NIGHT
AS WELL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND.

GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT
TEMP PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM
COMING DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS
AND/OR TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A
SEASONABLE AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH
EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES EAST THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. WNW WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SW SEA
BREEZES AT KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON. KJFK WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT.
GUSTS END BY 06Z...WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NE 7 TO 12 KT. NE
WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN AFTERNOON...VFR. SE WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUN NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. LLWS DEVELOPING LATE. ESE WIND
G20-25KT LATE.
.MON...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. LLWS EARLY. ESE WIND G25-30KT.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. WEST G25KT.
.WED-THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES
ACROSS THIS EVENING. GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS...BUT A FEW
NEARSHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON
MON...THEN WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT
INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-30 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. APPEARS WIND GUSTS
WILL NOT INCREASE UNTIL 3 OR 4PM...BUT NOT WORTH CHANGING TIMING
OF HEADLINES AT THIS STAGE. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE WHOLE CWA THROUGH 8 PM GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC/DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 181731
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
131 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A WARM
FRONT NEARS THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG THE FRONT PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR
TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURES WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE N/NE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STRENGTHENING WNW-NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AS A RESULT.

STILL ON TRACK TO HAVE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF A MAINLY SUNNY SKY...DEEP MIXING...850 MB
TEMPS RANGING FROM 7-10C...AND DOWNSLOPING WNW LOW
FLOW...INCREASING TO 15-25KT IN THE AFTERNOON - STRONGEST FAR N
AND FAR W ZONES. HIGHS WILL RUN AROUND 15-20 DEGREES AROUND
NORMAL...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE
NJ/NYC/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY REACHED OR BROKE THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

BASED ON LATEST TRENDS SHOWING TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE FORECAST...DID TWEAK HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH WITH ITS PASSAGE...BUT WINDS
DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AT 5-10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST EAST OF CAPE COD ON SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...USHERING A MUCH
COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT FOR LONG ISLAND
AND COASTAL CT...WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE BOTH
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE 00Z GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM BY A LITTLE...BUT
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS.

A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OR NEARBY JUST THE AREA
MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA NEARBY DECENT LIFT. LIFT
WILL BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...BY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND A 50-60 KT SE LOW LEVEL JET
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. THINKING IS THAT EASTERN
ZONES WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS IN GENERAL.
INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED
THUNDER MON NIGHT...WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE VARIABILITY AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE TRI STATE AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT. UP TO 2 INCHES LOCALLY
IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE SE FLOW PROBABLY ENHANCES OROGRAPHIC
LIFT...SO FORECAST AMOUNTS NW OF THE CITY COULD BE A LITTLE TOO
LOW. SO IN GENERAL...RAIN BECOMES LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
MOST SPOTS...WITH MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN
MONDAY MORNING. MID LEVELS DRY OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO LIGHT
RAINFALL OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE WOULD BE EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE
DAY. LIGHT RAIN REMAINS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WAVE CENTER MOVES THROUGH. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED MON NIGHT
AS WELL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND.

GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT
TEMP PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM
COMING DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS
AND/OR TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A
SEASONABLE AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH
EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES EAST THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. WNW WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SW SEA
BREEZES AT KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON. KJFK WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT.
GUSTS END BY 06Z...WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NE 7 TO 12 KT. NE
WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN AFTERNOON...VFR. SE WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUN NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. LLWS DEVELOPING LATE. ESE WIND
G20-25KT LATE.
.MON...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. LLWS EARLY. ESE WIND G25-30KT.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. WEST G25KT.
.WED-THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES
ACROSS THIS EVENING. GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS...BUT A FEW
NEARSHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON
MON...THEN WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT
INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-30 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. APPEARS WIND GUSTS
WILL NOT INCREASE UNTIL 3 OR 4PM...BUT NOT WORTH CHANGING TIMING
OF HEADLINES AT THIS STAGE. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE WHOLE CWA THROUGH 8 PM GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC/DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 181705
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
105 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A WARM
FRONT NEARS THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG THE FRONT PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR
TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURES WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE N/NE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STRENGTHENING WNW-NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AS A RESULT.

STILL ON TRACK TO HAVE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF A MAINLY SUNNY SKY...DEEP MIXING...850 MB
TEMPS RANGING FROM 7-10C...AND DOWNSLOPING WNW LOW
FLOW...INCREASING TO 15-25KT IN THE AFTERNOON - STRONGEST FAR N
AND FAR W ZONES. HIGHS WILL RUN AROUND 15-20 DEGREES AROUND
NORMAL...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE
NJ/NYC/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY REACHED OR BROKE THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

BASED ON LATEST TRENDS SHOWING TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE FORECAST...DID TWEAK HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH WITH ITS PASSAGE...BUT WINDS
DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AT 5-10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST EAST OF CAPE COD ON SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...USHERING A MUCH
COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT FOR LONG ISLAND
AND COASTAL CT...WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE BOTH
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE 00Z GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM BY A LITTLE...BUT
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS.

A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OR NEARBY JUST THE AREA
MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA NEARBY DECENT LIFT. LIFT
WILL BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...BY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND A 50-60 KT SE LOW LEVEL JET
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. THINKING IS THAT EASTERN
ZONES WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS IN GENERAL.
INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED
THUNDER MON NIGHT...WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE VARIABILITY AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE TRI STATE AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT. UP TO 2 INCHES LOCALLY
IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE SE FLOW PROBABLY ENHANCES OROGRAPHIC
LIFT...SO FORECAST AMOUNTS NW OF THE CITY COULD BE A LITTLE TOO
LOW. SO IN GENERAL...RAIN BECOMES LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
MOST SPOTS...WITH MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN
MONDAY MORNING. MID LEVELS DRY OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO LIGHT
RAINFALL OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE WOULD BE EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE
DAY. LIGHT RAIN REMAINS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WAVE CENTER MOVES THROUGH. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED MON NIGHT
AS WELL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND.

GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT
TEMP PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM
COMING DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS
AND/OR TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A
SEASONABLE AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH
EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING MOSTLY
W...EXCEPT SW SEA BREEZES FOR KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON. KJFK PROBABLY
SHIFTS TO THE S LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTS 20-25 PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW THIS EVENING
AND BECOME LESS GUSTY OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN...VFR. SFC WIND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...RAIN/SUB VFR/LLWS DEVELOPING LATE. E G25-30KT LATE.
.MON...MVFR/IFR. RAIN. LLWS EARLY. INCREASING ESE SFC WIND.
G30KT.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.  WEST G25KT.
.WED...VFR. CHANCE SUB VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. SW G25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES
ACROSS THIS EVENING. GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS...BUT A FEW
NEARSHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON
MON...THEN WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT
INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-30 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. APPEARS WIND GUSTS
WILL NOT INCREASE UNTIL 3 OR 4PM...BUT NOT WORTH CHANGING TIMING
OF HEADLINES AT THIS STAGE. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE WHOLE CWA THROUGH 8 PM GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC/DW
AVIATION...JC/DS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 181705
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
105 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A WARM
FRONT NEARS THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG THE FRONT PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR
TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURES WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE N/NE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STRENGTHENING WNW-NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AS A RESULT.

STILL ON TRACK TO HAVE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF A MAINLY SUNNY SKY...DEEP MIXING...850 MB
TEMPS RANGING FROM 7-10C...AND DOWNSLOPING WNW LOW
FLOW...INCREASING TO 15-25KT IN THE AFTERNOON - STRONGEST FAR N
AND FAR W ZONES. HIGHS WILL RUN AROUND 15-20 DEGREES AROUND
NORMAL...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE
NJ/NYC/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY REACHED OR BROKE THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

BASED ON LATEST TRENDS SHOWING TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE FORECAST...DID TWEAK HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH WITH ITS PASSAGE...BUT WINDS
DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AT 5-10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST EAST OF CAPE COD ON SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...USHERING A MUCH
COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT FOR LONG ISLAND
AND COASTAL CT...WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE BOTH
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE 00Z GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM BY A LITTLE...BUT
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS.

A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OR NEARBY JUST THE AREA
MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA NEARBY DECENT LIFT. LIFT
WILL BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...BY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND A 50-60 KT SE LOW LEVEL JET
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. THINKING IS THAT EASTERN
ZONES WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS IN GENERAL.
INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED
THUNDER MON NIGHT...WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE VARIABILITY AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE TRI STATE AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT. UP TO 2 INCHES LOCALLY
IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE SE FLOW PROBABLY ENHANCES OROGRAPHIC
LIFT...SO FORECAST AMOUNTS NW OF THE CITY COULD BE A LITTLE TOO
LOW. SO IN GENERAL...RAIN BECOMES LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
MOST SPOTS...WITH MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN
MONDAY MORNING. MID LEVELS DRY OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO LIGHT
RAINFALL OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE WOULD BE EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE
DAY. LIGHT RAIN REMAINS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WAVE CENTER MOVES THROUGH. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED MON NIGHT
AS WELL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND.

GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT
TEMP PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM
COMING DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS
AND/OR TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A
SEASONABLE AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH
EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING MOSTLY
W...EXCEPT SW SEA BREEZES FOR KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON. KJFK PROBABLY
SHIFTS TO THE S LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTS 20-25 PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW THIS EVENING
AND BECOME LESS GUSTY OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN...VFR. SFC WIND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...RAIN/SUB VFR/LLWS DEVELOPING LATE. E G25-30KT LATE.
.MON...MVFR/IFR. RAIN. LLWS EARLY. INCREASING ESE SFC WIND.
G30KT.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.  WEST G25KT.
.WED...VFR. CHANCE SUB VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. SW G25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES
ACROSS THIS EVENING. GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS...BUT A FEW
NEARSHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON
MON...THEN WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT
INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-30 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. APPEARS WIND GUSTS
WILL NOT INCREASE UNTIL 3 OR 4PM...BUT NOT WORTH CHANGING TIMING
OF HEADLINES AT THIS STAGE. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE WHOLE CWA THROUGH 8 PM GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC/DW
AVIATION...JC/DS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 181705
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
105 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A WARM
FRONT NEARS THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG THE FRONT PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR
TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURES WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE N/NE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STRENGTHENING WNW-NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AS A RESULT.

STILL ON TRACK TO HAVE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF A MAINLY SUNNY SKY...DEEP MIXING...850 MB
TEMPS RANGING FROM 7-10C...AND DOWNSLOPING WNW LOW
FLOW...INCREASING TO 15-25KT IN THE AFTERNOON - STRONGEST FAR N
AND FAR W ZONES. HIGHS WILL RUN AROUND 15-20 DEGREES AROUND
NORMAL...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE
NJ/NYC/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY REACHED OR BROKE THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

BASED ON LATEST TRENDS SHOWING TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE FORECAST...DID TWEAK HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH WITH ITS PASSAGE...BUT WINDS
DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AT 5-10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST EAST OF CAPE COD ON SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...USHERING A MUCH
COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT FOR LONG ISLAND
AND COASTAL CT...WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE BOTH
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE 00Z GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM BY A LITTLE...BUT
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS.

A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OR NEARBY JUST THE AREA
MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA NEARBY DECENT LIFT. LIFT
WILL BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...BY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND A 50-60 KT SE LOW LEVEL JET
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. THINKING IS THAT EASTERN
ZONES WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS IN GENERAL.
INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED
THUNDER MON NIGHT...WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE VARIABILITY AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE TRI STATE AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT. UP TO 2 INCHES LOCALLY
IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE SE FLOW PROBABLY ENHANCES OROGRAPHIC
LIFT...SO FORECAST AMOUNTS NW OF THE CITY COULD BE A LITTLE TOO
LOW. SO IN GENERAL...RAIN BECOMES LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
MOST SPOTS...WITH MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN
MONDAY MORNING. MID LEVELS DRY OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO LIGHT
RAINFALL OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE WOULD BE EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE
DAY. LIGHT RAIN REMAINS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WAVE CENTER MOVES THROUGH. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED MON NIGHT
AS WELL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND.

GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT
TEMP PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM
COMING DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS
AND/OR TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A
SEASONABLE AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH
EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING MOSTLY
W...EXCEPT SW SEA BREEZES FOR KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON. KJFK PROBABLY
SHIFTS TO THE S LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTS 20-25 PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW THIS EVENING
AND BECOME LESS GUSTY OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN...VFR. SFC WIND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...RAIN/SUB VFR/LLWS DEVELOPING LATE. E G25-30KT LATE.
.MON...MVFR/IFR. RAIN. LLWS EARLY. INCREASING ESE SFC WIND.
G30KT.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.  WEST G25KT.
.WED...VFR. CHANCE SUB VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. SW G25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES
ACROSS THIS EVENING. GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS...BUT A FEW
NEARSHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON
MON...THEN WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT
INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-30 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. APPEARS WIND GUSTS
WILL NOT INCREASE UNTIL 3 OR 4PM...BUT NOT WORTH CHANGING TIMING
OF HEADLINES AT THIS STAGE. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE WHOLE CWA THROUGH 8 PM GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC/DW
AVIATION...JC/DS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 181447
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1047 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A WARM
FRONT NEARS THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG THE FRONT PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR
TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURES WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE N/NE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STRENGTHENING WNW-NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AS A RESULT.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR IS ON TAP WITH THE COMBINATION OF A
MAINLY SUNNY SKY...DEEP MIXING...850 MB TEMPS RANGING FROM
7-10C...AND DOWNSLOPING WNW LOW FLOW...INCREASING TO 15-25KT IN
THE AFTERNOON - STRONGEST FAR N AND FAR W ZONES. HIGHS WILL RUN
AROUND 15-20 DEGREES AROUND NORMAL...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE NJ/NYC/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY REACHED OR
BROKE THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH WITH ITS PASSAGE...BUT WINDS
DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AT 5-10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST EAST OF CAPE COD ON SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...USHERING A MUCH
COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT FOR LONG ISLAND
AND COASTAL CT...WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE BOTH
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE 00Z GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM BY A LITTLE...BUT
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS.

A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OR NEARBY JUST THE AREA
MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA NEARBY DECENT LIFT. LIFT
WILL BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...BY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND A 50-60 KT SE LOW LEVEL JET
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. THINKING IS THAT EASTERN
ZONES WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS IN GENERAL.
INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED
THUNDER MON NIGHT...WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE VARIABILITY AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE TRI STATE AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT. UP TO 2 INCHES LOCALLY
IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE SE FLOW PROBABLY ENHANCES OROGRAPHIC
LIFT...SO FORECAST AMOUNTS NW OF THE CITY COULD BE A LITTLE TOO
LOW. SO IN GENERAL...RAIN BECOMES LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
MOST SPOTS...WITH MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN
MONDAY MORNING. MID LEVELS DRY OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO LIGHT
RAINFALL OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE WOULD BE EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE
DAY. LIGHT RAIN REMAINS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WAVE CENTER MOVES THROUGH. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED MON NIGHT
AS WELL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND.

GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT
TEMP PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM
COMING DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS
AND/OR TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A
SEASONABLE AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH
EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING MOSTLY
W...EXCEPT SW SEA BREEZES FOR KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON. KJFK PROBABLY
SHIFTS TO THE S LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTS 20-25 PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW THIS EVENING
AND BECOME LESS GUSTY OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN...VFR. SFC WIND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...RAIN/SUB VFR/LLWS DEVELOPING LATE. E G25-30KT LATE.
.MON...MVFR/IFR. RAIN. LLWS EARLY. INCREASING ESE SFC WIND.
G30KT.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.  WEST G25KT.
.WED...VFR. CHANCE SUB VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. SW G25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES
ACROSS THIS EVENING. GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS...BUT A FEW
NEARSHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON
MON...THEN WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT
INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-30 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NW-WNW THEN
BACK TO THE W THEN WSW AND THEN SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE
RAPIDLY TURNING NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-8 PM WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WHOLE CWA FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MPS/JC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC/DW
AVIATION...DS/JC
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS/JC
FIRE WEATHER...MALOIT/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 181143
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
743 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEMS APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES OVER OR RIGHT BY THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AT NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR ON TAP
WITH THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING...850 MB
TEMPS RANGING FROM +8C TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR NYC AND
MOST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND IN THE MID 70S
FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT AND THE REST OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY. FOR LONG ISLAND...COASTAL CT...AND COASTAL PORTIONS
OF NYC...HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 70S.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO
SHIFT FROM A SW FLOW TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY INCREASE
TO 15-20 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH WITH ITS PASSAGE...BUT WINDS DIMINISH
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT
5-10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST EAST OF CAPE COD ON SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...USHERING A MUCH
COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT FOR LONG ISLAND
AND COASTAL CT...WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE BOTH
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SPED UP
THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM BY A LITTLE...BUT STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
REGARDING PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS.

A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OR NEARBY JUST THE AREA
MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA NEARBY DECENT LIFT. LIFT
WILL BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...BY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND A 50-60 KT SE LLJ LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. THINKING IS THAT EASTERN ZONES WILL
PROBABLY END UP WITH HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS IN GENERAL. INSTABILITY
ALOFT COULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDER MON
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE VARIABILITY AND SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE TRI STATE AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT. UP TO 2 INCHES LOCALLY IS STILL POSSIBLE.
THE SE FLOW PROBABLY ENHANCES OROGRAPHIC LIFT...SO FORECAST
AMOUNTS NW OF THE CITY COULD BE A LITTLE TOO LOW. SO IN
GENERAL...RAIN BECOMES LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MOST
SPOTS...WITH MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MONDAY
MORNING. MID LEVELS DRY OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO LIGHT RAINFALL
OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE WOULD BE EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT RAIN REMAINS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE
CENTER MOVES THROUGH. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED MON NIGHT AS
WELL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND.

GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT
TEMP PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM
COMING DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS
AND/OR TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A
SEASONABLE AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH
EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BCMG MOSTLY
W...EXCEPT SW SEA BREEZES FOR KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON. KJFK PROBABLY
SHIFTS S LATE AFTN. GUSTS 20-25 PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHIFT NW BY MIDNIGHT AND BECOME LESS GUSTY
OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.SUN NIGHT...RAIN/SUB VFR/LLWS DEVELOPING LATE. E G25-30KT LATE.
.MON...MVFR/IFR. RAIN. LLWS EARLY. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30KT.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.  WEST G25KT.
.WED...VFR. CHC SUB VFR IN THE AFTN. SW G25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES
ACROSS THIS EVENING. GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDS...BUT A FEW NEARSHORE
GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON
MON...THEN WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT
INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-30 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE CWA FROM 12
PM TO 8 PM GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC/DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 181143
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
743 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEMS APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES OVER OR RIGHT BY THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AT NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR ON TAP
WITH THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING...850 MB
TEMPS RANGING FROM +8C TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR NYC AND
MOST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND IN THE MID 70S
FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT AND THE REST OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY. FOR LONG ISLAND...COASTAL CT...AND COASTAL PORTIONS
OF NYC...HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 70S.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO
SHIFT FROM A SW FLOW TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY INCREASE
TO 15-20 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH WITH ITS PASSAGE...BUT WINDS DIMINISH
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT
5-10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST EAST OF CAPE COD ON SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...USHERING A MUCH
COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT FOR LONG ISLAND
AND COASTAL CT...WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE BOTH
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SPED UP
THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM BY A LITTLE...BUT STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
REGARDING PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS.

A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OR NEARBY JUST THE AREA
MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA NEARBY DECENT LIFT. LIFT
WILL BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...BY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND A 50-60 KT SE LLJ LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. THINKING IS THAT EASTERN ZONES WILL
PROBABLY END UP WITH HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS IN GENERAL. INSTABILITY
ALOFT COULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDER MON
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE VARIABILITY AND SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE TRI STATE AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT. UP TO 2 INCHES LOCALLY IS STILL POSSIBLE.
THE SE FLOW PROBABLY ENHANCES OROGRAPHIC LIFT...SO FORECAST
AMOUNTS NW OF THE CITY COULD BE A LITTLE TOO LOW. SO IN
GENERAL...RAIN BECOMES LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MOST
SPOTS...WITH MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MONDAY
MORNING. MID LEVELS DRY OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO LIGHT RAINFALL
OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE WOULD BE EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT RAIN REMAINS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE
CENTER MOVES THROUGH. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED MON NIGHT AS
WELL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND.

GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT
TEMP PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM
COMING DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS
AND/OR TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A
SEASONABLE AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH
EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BCMG MOSTLY
W...EXCEPT SW SEA BREEZES FOR KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON. KJFK PROBABLY
SHIFTS S LATE AFTN. GUSTS 20-25 PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHIFT NW BY MIDNIGHT AND BECOME LESS GUSTY
OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.SUN NIGHT...RAIN/SUB VFR/LLWS DEVELOPING LATE. E G25-30KT LATE.
.MON...MVFR/IFR. RAIN. LLWS EARLY. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30KT.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.  WEST G25KT.
.WED...VFR. CHC SUB VFR IN THE AFTN. SW G25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES
ACROSS THIS EVENING. GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDS...BUT A FEW NEARSHORE
GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON
MON...THEN WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT
INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-30 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE CWA FROM 12
PM TO 8 PM GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC/DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 181143
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
743 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEMS APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES OVER OR RIGHT BY THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AT NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR ON TAP
WITH THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING...850 MB
TEMPS RANGING FROM +8C TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR NYC AND
MOST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND IN THE MID 70S
FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT AND THE REST OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY. FOR LONG ISLAND...COASTAL CT...AND COASTAL PORTIONS
OF NYC...HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 70S.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO
SHIFT FROM A SW FLOW TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY INCREASE
TO 15-20 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH WITH ITS PASSAGE...BUT WINDS DIMINISH
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT
5-10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST EAST OF CAPE COD ON SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...USHERING A MUCH
COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT FOR LONG ISLAND
AND COASTAL CT...WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE BOTH
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SPED UP
THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM BY A LITTLE...BUT STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
REGARDING PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS.

A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OR NEARBY JUST THE AREA
MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA NEARBY DECENT LIFT. LIFT
WILL BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...BY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND A 50-60 KT SE LLJ LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. THINKING IS THAT EASTERN ZONES WILL
PROBABLY END UP WITH HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS IN GENERAL. INSTABILITY
ALOFT COULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDER MON
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE VARIABILITY AND SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE TRI STATE AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT. UP TO 2 INCHES LOCALLY IS STILL POSSIBLE.
THE SE FLOW PROBABLY ENHANCES OROGRAPHIC LIFT...SO FORECAST
AMOUNTS NW OF THE CITY COULD BE A LITTLE TOO LOW. SO IN
GENERAL...RAIN BECOMES LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MOST
SPOTS...WITH MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MONDAY
MORNING. MID LEVELS DRY OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO LIGHT RAINFALL
OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE WOULD BE EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT RAIN REMAINS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE
CENTER MOVES THROUGH. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED MON NIGHT AS
WELL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND.

GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT
TEMP PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM
COMING DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS
AND/OR TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A
SEASONABLE AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH
EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BCMG MOSTLY
W...EXCEPT SW SEA BREEZES FOR KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON. KJFK PROBABLY
SHIFTS S LATE AFTN. GUSTS 20-25 PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHIFT NW BY MIDNIGHT AND BECOME LESS GUSTY
OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.SUN NIGHT...RAIN/SUB VFR/LLWS DEVELOPING LATE. E G25-30KT LATE.
.MON...MVFR/IFR. RAIN. LLWS EARLY. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30KT.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.  WEST G25KT.
.WED...VFR. CHC SUB VFR IN THE AFTN. SW G25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES
ACROSS THIS EVENING. GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDS...BUT A FEW NEARSHORE
GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON
MON...THEN WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT
INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-30 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE CWA FROM 12
PM TO 8 PM GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC/DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 181143
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
743 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEMS APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES OVER OR RIGHT BY THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AT NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR ON TAP
WITH THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING...850 MB
TEMPS RANGING FROM +8C TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR NYC AND
MOST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND IN THE MID 70S
FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT AND THE REST OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY. FOR LONG ISLAND...COASTAL CT...AND COASTAL PORTIONS
OF NYC...HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 70S.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO
SHIFT FROM A SW FLOW TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY INCREASE
TO 15-20 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH WITH ITS PASSAGE...BUT WINDS DIMINISH
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT
5-10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST EAST OF CAPE COD ON SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...USHERING A MUCH
COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT FOR LONG ISLAND
AND COASTAL CT...WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE BOTH
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SPED UP
THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM BY A LITTLE...BUT STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
REGARDING PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS.

A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OR NEARBY JUST THE AREA
MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA NEARBY DECENT LIFT. LIFT
WILL BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...BY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND A 50-60 KT SE LLJ LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. THINKING IS THAT EASTERN ZONES WILL
PROBABLY END UP WITH HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS IN GENERAL. INSTABILITY
ALOFT COULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDER MON
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE VARIABILITY AND SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE TRI STATE AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT. UP TO 2 INCHES LOCALLY IS STILL POSSIBLE.
THE SE FLOW PROBABLY ENHANCES OROGRAPHIC LIFT...SO FORECAST
AMOUNTS NW OF THE CITY COULD BE A LITTLE TOO LOW. SO IN
GENERAL...RAIN BECOMES LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MOST
SPOTS...WITH MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MONDAY
MORNING. MID LEVELS DRY OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO LIGHT RAINFALL
OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE WOULD BE EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT RAIN REMAINS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE
CENTER MOVES THROUGH. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED MON NIGHT AS
WELL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND.

GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT
TEMP PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM
COMING DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS
AND/OR TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A
SEASONABLE AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH
EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BCMG MOSTLY
W...EXCEPT SW SEA BREEZES FOR KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON. KJFK PROBABLY
SHIFTS S LATE AFTN. GUSTS 20-25 PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHIFT NW BY MIDNIGHT AND BECOME LESS GUSTY
OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.SUN NIGHT...RAIN/SUB VFR/LLWS DEVELOPING LATE. E G25-30KT LATE.
.MON...MVFR/IFR. RAIN. LLWS EARLY. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30KT.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.  WEST G25KT.
.WED...VFR. CHC SUB VFR IN THE AFTN. SW G25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES
ACROSS THIS EVENING. GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDS...BUT A FEW NEARSHORE
GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON
MON...THEN WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT
INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-30 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE CWA FROM 12
PM TO 8 PM GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC/DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 181011
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
611 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEMS APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES OVER OR RIGHT BY THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AT NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AND PARTS OF INTERIOR CT WILL DISSIPATE AND BURN OFF BY 8
AM.

OTHERWISE...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR ON TAP WITH THE
COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING...850 MB TEMPS
RANGING FROM +8C TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR NYC AND MOST
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND IN THE MID 70S FOR
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT AND THE REST OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. FOR LONG ISLAND...COASTAL CT...AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF
NYC...HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 70S.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO
SHIFT FROM A SW FLOW TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY INCREASE
TO 15-20 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH WITH ITS PASSAGE...BUT WINDS DIMINISH
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT
5-10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST EAST OF CAPE COD ON SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...USHERING A MUCH
COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT FOR LONG ISLAND
AND COASTAL CT...WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE BOTH
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SPED UP
THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM BY A LITTLE...BUT STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
REGARDING PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS.

A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OR NEARBY JUST THE AREA
MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA NEARBY DECENT LIFT. LIFT
WILL BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...BY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND A 50-60 KT SE LLJ LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. THINKING IS THAT EASTERN ZONES WILL
PROBABLY END UP WITH HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS IN GENERAL. INSTABILITY
ALOFT COULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDER MON
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE VARIABILITY AND SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE TRI STATE AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT. UP TO 2 INCHES LOCALLY IS STILL POSSIBLE.
THE SE FLOW PROBABLY ENHANCES OROGRAPHIC LIFT...SO FORECAST
AMOUNTS NW OF THE CITY COULD BE A LITTLE TOO LOW. SO IN
GENERAL...RAIN BECOMES LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MOST
SPOTS...WITH MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MONDAY
MORNING. MID LEVELS DRY OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO LIGHT RAINFALL
OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE WOULD BE EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT RAIN REMAINS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE
CENTER MOVES THROUGH. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED MON NIGHT AS
WELL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND.

GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT
TEMP PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM
COMING DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS
AND/OR TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A
SEASONABLE AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH
EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BCMG MOSTLY
W...EXCEPT SW SEA BREEZES FOR KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON. KJFK PROBABLY
SHIFTS S LATE AFTN. GUSTS 20-25 PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHIFT NW BY MIDNIGHT AND BECOME LESS GUSTY
OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NGT...VFR WITH DECREASING WINDS.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN. LLWS
LATE.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. LLWS EARLY. INCREASING ESE SFC WND.
G30KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES
ACROSS THIS EVENING. GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDS...BUT A FEW NEARSHORE
GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON
MON...THEN WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT
INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-30 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE CWA FROM 12
PM TO 8 PM GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 181011
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
611 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEMS APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES OVER OR RIGHT BY THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AT NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AND PARTS OF INTERIOR CT WILL DISSIPATE AND BURN OFF BY 8
AM.

OTHERWISE...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR ON TAP WITH THE
COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING...850 MB TEMPS
RANGING FROM +8C TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR NYC AND MOST
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND IN THE MID 70S FOR
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT AND THE REST OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. FOR LONG ISLAND...COASTAL CT...AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF
NYC...HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 70S.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO
SHIFT FROM A SW FLOW TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY INCREASE
TO 15-20 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH WITH ITS PASSAGE...BUT WINDS DIMINISH
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT
5-10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST EAST OF CAPE COD ON SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...USHERING A MUCH
COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT FOR LONG ISLAND
AND COASTAL CT...WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE BOTH
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SPED UP
THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM BY A LITTLE...BUT STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
REGARDING PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS.

A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OR NEARBY JUST THE AREA
MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA NEARBY DECENT LIFT. LIFT
WILL BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...BY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND A 50-60 KT SE LLJ LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. THINKING IS THAT EASTERN ZONES WILL
PROBABLY END UP WITH HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS IN GENERAL. INSTABILITY
ALOFT COULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDER MON
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE VARIABILITY AND SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE TRI STATE AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT. UP TO 2 INCHES LOCALLY IS STILL POSSIBLE.
THE SE FLOW PROBABLY ENHANCES OROGRAPHIC LIFT...SO FORECAST
AMOUNTS NW OF THE CITY COULD BE A LITTLE TOO LOW. SO IN
GENERAL...RAIN BECOMES LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MOST
SPOTS...WITH MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MONDAY
MORNING. MID LEVELS DRY OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO LIGHT RAINFALL
OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE WOULD BE EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT RAIN REMAINS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE
CENTER MOVES THROUGH. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED MON NIGHT AS
WELL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND.

GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT
TEMP PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM
COMING DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS
AND/OR TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A
SEASONABLE AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH
EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BCMG MOSTLY
W...EXCEPT SW SEA BREEZES FOR KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON. KJFK PROBABLY
SHIFTS S LATE AFTN. GUSTS 20-25 PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHIFT NW BY MIDNIGHT AND BECOME LESS GUSTY
OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NGT...VFR WITH DECREASING WINDS.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN. LLWS
LATE.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. LLWS EARLY. INCREASING ESE SFC WND.
G30KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES
ACROSS THIS EVENING. GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDS...BUT A FEW NEARSHORE
GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON
MON...THEN WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT
INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-30 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE CWA FROM 12
PM TO 8 PM GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 181011
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
611 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEMS APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES OVER OR RIGHT BY THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AT NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AND PARTS OF INTERIOR CT WILL DISSIPATE AND BURN OFF BY 8
AM.

OTHERWISE...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR ON TAP WITH THE
COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING...850 MB TEMPS
RANGING FROM +8C TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR NYC AND MOST
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND IN THE MID 70S FOR
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT AND THE REST OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. FOR LONG ISLAND...COASTAL CT...AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF
NYC...HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 70S.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO
SHIFT FROM A SW FLOW TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY INCREASE
TO 15-20 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH WITH ITS PASSAGE...BUT WINDS DIMINISH
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT
5-10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST EAST OF CAPE COD ON SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...USHERING A MUCH
COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT FOR LONG ISLAND
AND COASTAL CT...WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE BOTH
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SPED UP
THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM BY A LITTLE...BUT STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
REGARDING PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS.

A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OR NEARBY JUST THE AREA
MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA NEARBY DECENT LIFT. LIFT
WILL BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...BY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND A 50-60 KT SE LLJ LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. THINKING IS THAT EASTERN ZONES WILL
PROBABLY END UP WITH HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS IN GENERAL. INSTABILITY
ALOFT COULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDER MON
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE VARIABILITY AND SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE TRI STATE AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT. UP TO 2 INCHES LOCALLY IS STILL POSSIBLE.
THE SE FLOW PROBABLY ENHANCES OROGRAPHIC LIFT...SO FORECAST
AMOUNTS NW OF THE CITY COULD BE A LITTLE TOO LOW. SO IN
GENERAL...RAIN BECOMES LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MOST
SPOTS...WITH MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MONDAY
MORNING. MID LEVELS DRY OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO LIGHT RAINFALL
OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE WOULD BE EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT RAIN REMAINS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE
CENTER MOVES THROUGH. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED MON NIGHT AS
WELL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND.

GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT
TEMP PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM
COMING DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS
AND/OR TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A
SEASONABLE AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH
EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BCMG MOSTLY
W...EXCEPT SW SEA BREEZES FOR KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON. KJFK PROBABLY
SHIFTS S LATE AFTN. GUSTS 20-25 PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHIFT NW BY MIDNIGHT AND BECOME LESS GUSTY
OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NGT...VFR WITH DECREASING WINDS.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN. LLWS
LATE.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. LLWS EARLY. INCREASING ESE SFC WND.
G30KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES
ACROSS THIS EVENING. GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDS...BUT A FEW NEARSHORE
GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON
MON...THEN WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT
INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-30 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE CWA FROM 12
PM TO 8 PM GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 180809
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
409 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEMS APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES OVER OR RIGHT BY THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AT NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND
ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND. THAT FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR ON TAP WITH THE
COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING...850 MB TEMPS
RANGING FROM +8C TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR NYC AND MOST
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND IN THE MID 70S FOR
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT AND THE REST OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. FOR LONG ISLAND...COASTAL CT...AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF
NYC...HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 70S.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO
SHIFT FROM A SW FLOW TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY INCREASE
TO 15-20 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH WITH ITS PASSAGE...BUT WINDS DIMINISH
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT
5-10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST EAST OF CAPE COD ON SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...USHERING A MUCH
COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT FOR LONG ISLAND
AND COASTAL CT...WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE BOTH
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SPED UP
THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM BY A LITTLE...BUT STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
REGARDING PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS.

A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OR NEARBY JUST THE AREA
MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA NEARBY DECENT LIFT. LIFT
WILL BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...BY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND A 50-60 KT SE LLJ LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. THINKING IS THAT EASTERN ZONES WILL
PROBABLY END UP WITH HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS IN GENERAL. INSTABILITY
ALOFT COULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDER MON
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE VARIABILITY AND SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE TRI STATE AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT. UP TO 2 INCHES LOCALLY IS STILL POSSIBLE.
THE SE FLOW PROBABLY ENHANCES OROGRAPHIC LIFT...SO FORECAST
AMOUNTS NW OF THE CITY COULD BE A LITTLE TOO LOW. SO IN
GENERAL...RAIN BECOMES LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MOST
SPOTS...WITH MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MONDAY
MORNING. MID LEVELS DRY OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO LIGHT RAINFALL
OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE WOULD BE EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT RAIN REMAINS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE
CENTER MOVES THROUGH. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED MON NIGHT AS
WELL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND.

GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT
TEMP PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM
COMING DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS
AND/OR TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A
SEASONABLE AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH
EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BCMG MOSTLY
W...EXCEPT SW SEA BREEZES FOR KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON. KJFK PROBABLY
SHIFTS S LATE AFTN. GUSTS 20-25 PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHIFT NW BY MIDNIGHT AND BECOME LESS GUSTY
OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NGT...VFR WITH DECREASING WINDS.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN. LLWS
LATE.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. LLWS EARLY. INCREASING ESE SFC WND.
G30KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES
ACROSS THIS EVENING. GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDS...BUT A FEW NEARSHORE
GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON
MON...THEN WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT
INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-30 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY
ONGOING FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY
TURNING NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
RED FLAG WARNING...AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM GIVEN
EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 180809
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
409 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEMS APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES OVER OR RIGHT BY THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AT NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND
ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND. THAT FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR ON TAP WITH THE
COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING...850 MB TEMPS
RANGING FROM +8C TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR NYC AND MOST
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND IN THE MID 70S FOR
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT AND THE REST OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. FOR LONG ISLAND...COASTAL CT...AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF
NYC...HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 70S.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO
SHIFT FROM A SW FLOW TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY INCREASE
TO 15-20 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH WITH ITS PASSAGE...BUT WINDS DIMINISH
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT
5-10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST EAST OF CAPE COD ON SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...USHERING A MUCH
COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT FOR LONG ISLAND
AND COASTAL CT...WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE BOTH
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SPED UP
THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM BY A LITTLE...BUT STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
REGARDING PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS.

A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OR NEARBY JUST THE AREA
MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA NEARBY DECENT LIFT. LIFT
WILL BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...BY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND A 50-60 KT SE LLJ LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. THINKING IS THAT EASTERN ZONES WILL
PROBABLY END UP WITH HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS IN GENERAL. INSTABILITY
ALOFT COULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDER MON
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE VARIABILITY AND SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE TRI STATE AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT. UP TO 2 INCHES LOCALLY IS STILL POSSIBLE.
THE SE FLOW PROBABLY ENHANCES OROGRAPHIC LIFT...SO FORECAST
AMOUNTS NW OF THE CITY COULD BE A LITTLE TOO LOW. SO IN
GENERAL...RAIN BECOMES LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MOST
SPOTS...WITH MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MONDAY
MORNING. MID LEVELS DRY OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO LIGHT RAINFALL
OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE WOULD BE EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT RAIN REMAINS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE
CENTER MOVES THROUGH. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED MON NIGHT AS
WELL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND.

GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT
TEMP PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM
COMING DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS
AND/OR TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A
SEASONABLE AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH
EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BCMG MOSTLY
W...EXCEPT SW SEA BREEZES FOR KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON. KJFK PROBABLY
SHIFTS S LATE AFTN. GUSTS 20-25 PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHIFT NW BY MIDNIGHT AND BECOME LESS GUSTY
OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NGT...VFR WITH DECREASING WINDS.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN. LLWS
LATE.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. LLWS EARLY. INCREASING ESE SFC WND.
G30KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES
ACROSS THIS EVENING. GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDS...BUT A FEW NEARSHORE
GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON
MON...THEN WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT
INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-30 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY
ONGOING FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY
TURNING NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
RED FLAG WARNING...AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM GIVEN
EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 180543
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
143 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH BY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AND THEN GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AT 01Z...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRES WAS ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING.

CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. IN
ADDITION...PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE CITY
DUE TO TEMPS FALLING TO THE SFC DEW POINT...AND WILL INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG FOR THOSE AREAS THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK.

GENERALLY EXPECTED LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NYC
METRO AREA TO AS LOW AS THE LOW 40S INLAND AND ACROSS EASTERN
LONG ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN
ALONG THE COAST...AND UPPER 70S WEST OF NYC. GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY BEGIN BY LATE MORNING. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING
ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF HIGH-BASED STRATOCU AND A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TRANSLATES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUN. TO THE WEST...AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL
LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE MON INTO
TUE. GLOBAL MODELS IN PARTICULAR...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT LARGER
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH QPF.

THIS WILL RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE
BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWS TUE MORNING. STRONG
WAA ON MON WITH A 50-60 KT SE LLJ WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD
ALSO RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED THUNDER MON NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM NYC AND
POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THE SE FLOW WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
GUST UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT TEMP
PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM COMING
DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS AND/OR
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A SEASONABLE
AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH EAST OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

SOME FOG FOR KGON OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BCMG MOSTLY W...EXCEPT SW SEA BREEZES FOR
KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON. KJFK PROBABLY SHIFTS S LATE AFTN. GUSTS
20-25 PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHIFT
NW BY MIDNIGHT AND BECOME LESS GUSTY OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NGT...VFR WITH DECREASING WINDS.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW 10-15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT
BUILDING OCEAN SEAS GENERALLY TO 3 TO 4 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON MON...THEN WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM
GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND AFTER FEEDBACK FROM FIRE
WEATHER OFFICIALS REPORTING DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FROM NYC AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

.COASTAL FLOODING...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 180543
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
143 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH BY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AND THEN GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AT 01Z...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRES WAS ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING.

CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. IN
ADDITION...PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE CITY
DUE TO TEMPS FALLING TO THE SFC DEW POINT...AND WILL INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG FOR THOSE AREAS THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK.

GENERALLY EXPECTED LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NYC
METRO AREA TO AS LOW AS THE LOW 40S INLAND AND ACROSS EASTERN
LONG ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN
ALONG THE COAST...AND UPPER 70S WEST OF NYC. GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY BEGIN BY LATE MORNING. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING
ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF HIGH-BASED STRATOCU AND A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TRANSLATES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUN. TO THE WEST...AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL
LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE MON INTO
TUE. GLOBAL MODELS IN PARTICULAR...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT LARGER
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH QPF.

THIS WILL RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE
BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWS TUE MORNING. STRONG
WAA ON MON WITH A 50-60 KT SE LLJ WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD
ALSO RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED THUNDER MON NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM NYC AND
POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THE SE FLOW WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
GUST UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT TEMP
PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM COMING
DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS AND/OR
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A SEASONABLE
AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH EAST OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

SOME FOG FOR KGON OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BCMG MOSTLY W...EXCEPT SW SEA BREEZES FOR
KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON. KJFK PROBABLY SHIFTS S LATE AFTN. GUSTS
20-25 PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHIFT
NW BY MIDNIGHT AND BECOME LESS GUSTY OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NGT...VFR WITH DECREASING WINDS.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW 10-15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT
BUILDING OCEAN SEAS GENERALLY TO 3 TO 4 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON MON...THEN WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM
GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND AFTER FEEDBACK FROM FIRE
WEATHER OFFICIALS REPORTING DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FROM NYC AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

.COASTAL FLOODING...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 180543
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
143 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH BY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AND THEN GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AT 01Z...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRES WAS ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING.

CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. IN
ADDITION...PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE CITY
DUE TO TEMPS FALLING TO THE SFC DEW POINT...AND WILL INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG FOR THOSE AREAS THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK.

GENERALLY EXPECTED LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NYC
METRO AREA TO AS LOW AS THE LOW 40S INLAND AND ACROSS EASTERN
LONG ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN
ALONG THE COAST...AND UPPER 70S WEST OF NYC. GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY BEGIN BY LATE MORNING. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING
ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF HIGH-BASED STRATOCU AND A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TRANSLATES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUN. TO THE WEST...AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL
LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE MON INTO
TUE. GLOBAL MODELS IN PARTICULAR...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT LARGER
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH QPF.

THIS WILL RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE
BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWS TUE MORNING. STRONG
WAA ON MON WITH A 50-60 KT SE LLJ WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD
ALSO RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED THUNDER MON NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM NYC AND
POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THE SE FLOW WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
GUST UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT TEMP
PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM COMING
DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS AND/OR
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A SEASONABLE
AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH EAST OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

SOME FOG FOR KGON OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BCMG MOSTLY W...EXCEPT SW SEA BREEZES FOR
KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON. KJFK PROBABLY SHIFTS S LATE AFTN. GUSTS
20-25 PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHIFT
NW BY MIDNIGHT AND BECOME LESS GUSTY OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NGT...VFR WITH DECREASING WINDS.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW 10-15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT
BUILDING OCEAN SEAS GENERALLY TO 3 TO 4 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON MON...THEN WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM
GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND AFTER FEEDBACK FROM FIRE
WEATHER OFFICIALS REPORTING DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FROM NYC AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

.COASTAL FLOODING...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 180543
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
143 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH BY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AND THEN GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AT 01Z...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRES WAS ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING.

CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. IN
ADDITION...PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE CITY
DUE TO TEMPS FALLING TO THE SFC DEW POINT...AND WILL INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG FOR THOSE AREAS THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK.

GENERALLY EXPECTED LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NYC
METRO AREA TO AS LOW AS THE LOW 40S INLAND AND ACROSS EASTERN
LONG ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN
ALONG THE COAST...AND UPPER 70S WEST OF NYC. GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY BEGIN BY LATE MORNING. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING
ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF HIGH-BASED STRATOCU AND A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TRANSLATES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUN. TO THE WEST...AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL
LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE MON INTO
TUE. GLOBAL MODELS IN PARTICULAR...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT LARGER
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH QPF.

THIS WILL RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE
BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWS TUE MORNING. STRONG
WAA ON MON WITH A 50-60 KT SE LLJ WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD
ALSO RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED THUNDER MON NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM NYC AND
POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THE SE FLOW WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
GUST UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT TEMP
PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM COMING
DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS AND/OR
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A SEASONABLE
AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH EAST OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

SOME FOG FOR KGON OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BCMG MOSTLY W...EXCEPT SW SEA BREEZES FOR
KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON. KJFK PROBABLY SHIFTS S LATE AFTN. GUSTS
20-25 PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHIFT
NW BY MIDNIGHT AND BECOME LESS GUSTY OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NGT...VFR WITH DECREASING WINDS.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW 10-15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT
BUILDING OCEAN SEAS GENERALLY TO 3 TO 4 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON MON...THEN WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM
GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND AFTER FEEDBACK FROM FIRE
WEATHER OFFICIALS REPORTING DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FROM NYC AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

.COASTAL FLOODING...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 180259
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1059 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH BY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN
GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES
OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AT 01Z...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRES WAS ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING...WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS COMING TO AN END.

SKIES WILL CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT NW FLOW. LOWERED
LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDS...BUT STILL GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE NYC METRO AREA TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN
ALONG THE COAST...AND UPPER 70S WEST OF NYC. GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY BEGIN BY LATE MORNING. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING
ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF HIGH-BASED STRATOCU AND A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TRANSLATES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUN. TO THE WEST...AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL
LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE MON INTO
TUE. GLOBAL MODELS IN PARTICULAR...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT LARGER
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH QPF.

THIS WILL RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE
BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWS TUE MORNING. STRONG
WAA ON MON WITH A 50-60 KT SE LLJ WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD
ALSO RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED THUNDER MON NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM NYC AND
POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THE SE FLOW WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
GUST UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT TEMP
PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM COMING
DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS AND/OR
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A SEASONABLE
AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH EAST OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT EXITS LI AND CT OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH PRES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE W ON SAT.

SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IMPACTING KGON.
THIS WILL DISSIPATE AFT THE FROPA. OTHERWISE...VFR THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN BACK TO THE
W OR SW SAT MORNING. WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KT ON SAT...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON SAT. BEST
CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZES ARE WITH KJFK...KISP...AND KBDR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NGT...VFR WITH DECREASING WINDS.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW 10-15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT
BUILDING OCEAN SEAS GENERALLY TO 3 TO 4 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON MON...THEN WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM
GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND AFTER FEEDBACK FROM FIRE
WEATHER OFFICIALS REPORTING DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FROM NYC AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

.COASTAL FLOODING...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KOKX WSR-88D IS OUT OF SERVICE. TECHNICIANS ARE WORKING ON THE
PROBLEM. ESTIMATED TIME OF REPAIR IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD
NEAR TERM...MD/24
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JMC/JP
MARINE...MD/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MD
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 180259
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1059 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH BY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN
GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES
OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AT 01Z...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRES WAS ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING...WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS COMING TO AN END.

SKIES WILL CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT NW FLOW. LOWERED
LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDS...BUT STILL GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE NYC METRO AREA TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN
ALONG THE COAST...AND UPPER 70S WEST OF NYC. GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY BEGIN BY LATE MORNING. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING
ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF HIGH-BASED STRATOCU AND A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TRANSLATES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUN. TO THE WEST...AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL
LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE MON INTO
TUE. GLOBAL MODELS IN PARTICULAR...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT LARGER
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH QPF.

THIS WILL RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE
BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWS TUE MORNING. STRONG
WAA ON MON WITH A 50-60 KT SE LLJ WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD
ALSO RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED THUNDER MON NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM NYC AND
POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THE SE FLOW WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
GUST UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT TEMP
PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM COMING
DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS AND/OR
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A SEASONABLE
AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH EAST OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT EXITS LI AND CT OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH PRES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE W ON SAT.

SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IMPACTING KGON.
THIS WILL DISSIPATE AFT THE FROPA. OTHERWISE...VFR THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN BACK TO THE
W OR SW SAT MORNING. WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KT ON SAT...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON SAT. BEST
CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZES ARE WITH KJFK...KISP...AND KBDR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NGT...VFR WITH DECREASING WINDS.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW 10-15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT
BUILDING OCEAN SEAS GENERALLY TO 3 TO 4 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON MON...THEN WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM
GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND AFTER FEEDBACK FROM FIRE
WEATHER OFFICIALS REPORTING DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FROM NYC AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

.COASTAL FLOODING...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KOKX WSR-88D IS OUT OF SERVICE. TECHNICIANS ARE WORKING ON THE
PROBLEM. ESTIMATED TIME OF REPAIR IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD
NEAR TERM...MD/24
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JMC/JP
MARINE...MD/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MD
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 180259
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1059 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH BY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN
GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES
OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AT 01Z...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRES WAS ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING...WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS COMING TO AN END.

SKIES WILL CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT NW FLOW. LOWERED
LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDS...BUT STILL GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE NYC METRO AREA TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN
ALONG THE COAST...AND UPPER 70S WEST OF NYC. GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY BEGIN BY LATE MORNING. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING
ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF HIGH-BASED STRATOCU AND A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TRANSLATES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUN. TO THE WEST...AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL
LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE MON INTO
TUE. GLOBAL MODELS IN PARTICULAR...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT LARGER
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH QPF.

THIS WILL RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE
BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWS TUE MORNING. STRONG
WAA ON MON WITH A 50-60 KT SE LLJ WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD
ALSO RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED THUNDER MON NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM NYC AND
POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THE SE FLOW WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
GUST UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT TEMP
PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM COMING
DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS AND/OR
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A SEASONABLE
AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH EAST OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT EXITS LI AND CT OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH PRES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE W ON SAT.

SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IMPACTING KGON.
THIS WILL DISSIPATE AFT THE FROPA. OTHERWISE...VFR THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN BACK TO THE
W OR SW SAT MORNING. WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KT ON SAT...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON SAT. BEST
CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZES ARE WITH KJFK...KISP...AND KBDR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NGT...VFR WITH DECREASING WINDS.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW 10-15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT
BUILDING OCEAN SEAS GENERALLY TO 3 TO 4 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON MON...THEN WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM
GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND AFTER FEEDBACK FROM FIRE
WEATHER OFFICIALS REPORTING DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FROM NYC AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

.COASTAL FLOODING...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KOKX WSR-88D IS OUT OF SERVICE. TECHNICIANS ARE WORKING ON THE
PROBLEM. ESTIMATED TIME OF REPAIR IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD
NEAR TERM...MD/24
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JMC/JP
MARINE...MD/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MD
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 180151
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
951 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH BY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN
GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES
OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AT 01Z...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRES WAS ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING...WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS COMING TO AN END.

SKIES WILL CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT NW FLOW. LOWERED
LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDS...BUT STILL GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE NYC METRO AREA TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN
ALONG THE COAST...AND UPPER 70S WEST OF NYC. GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY BEGIN BY LATE MORNING. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING
ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF HIGH-BASED STRATOCU AND A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TRANSLATES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUN. TO THE WEST...AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL
LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE MON INTO
TUE. GLOBAL MODELS IN PARTICULAR...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT LARGER
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH QPF.

THIS WILL RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE
BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWS TUE MORNING. STRONG
WAA ON MON WITH A 50-60 KT SE LLJ WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD
ALSO RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED THUNDER MON NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM NYC AND
POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THE SE FLOW WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
GUST UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT TEMP
PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM COMING
DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS AND/OR
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A SEASONABLE
AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH EAST OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT PASSES THIS EVE...ALLOWING HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN FROM
THE W ON SAT.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THEN BACK
TO THE W OR SW SAT MORNING. WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KT ON SAT...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON SAT.
BEST CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZES ARE WITH KJFK...KISP...AND KBDR.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY VARY TO AROUND 180 TRUE AT TIMES
THRU 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NGT...VFR WITH DECREASING WINDS.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW 10-15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT
BUILDING OCEAN SEAS GENERALLY TO 3 TO 4 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON MON...THEN WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM
GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND AFTER FEEDBACK FROM FIRE
WEATHER OFFICIALS REPORTING DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FROM NYC AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

.COASTAL FLOODING...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KOKX WSR-88D IS OUT OF SERVICE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN
NOTIFIED. ESTIMATED TIME OF REPAIR IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 180151
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
951 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH BY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN
GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES
OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AT 01Z...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRES WAS ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING...WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS COMING TO AN END.

SKIES WILL CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT NW FLOW. LOWERED
LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDS...BUT STILL GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE NYC METRO AREA TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN
ALONG THE COAST...AND UPPER 70S WEST OF NYC. GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY BEGIN BY LATE MORNING. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING
ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF HIGH-BASED STRATOCU AND A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TRANSLATES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUN. TO THE WEST...AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL
LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE MON INTO
TUE. GLOBAL MODELS IN PARTICULAR...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT LARGER
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH QPF.

THIS WILL RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE
BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWS TUE MORNING. STRONG
WAA ON MON WITH A 50-60 KT SE LLJ WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD
ALSO RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED THUNDER MON NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM NYC AND
POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THE SE FLOW WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
GUST UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT TEMP
PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM COMING
DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS AND/OR
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A SEASONABLE
AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH EAST OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT PASSES THIS EVE...ALLOWING HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN FROM
THE W ON SAT.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THEN BACK
TO THE W OR SW SAT MORNING. WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KT ON SAT...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON SAT.
BEST CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZES ARE WITH KJFK...KISP...AND KBDR.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY VARY TO AROUND 180 TRUE AT TIMES
THRU 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NGT...VFR WITH DECREASING WINDS.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW 10-15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT
BUILDING OCEAN SEAS GENERALLY TO 3 TO 4 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON MON...THEN WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM
GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND AFTER FEEDBACK FROM FIRE
WEATHER OFFICIALS REPORTING DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FROM NYC AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

.COASTAL FLOODING...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KOKX WSR-88D IS OUT OF SERVICE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN
NOTIFIED. ESTIMATED TIME OF REPAIR IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 180020
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
820 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH BY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN
GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES
OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT...SO HAVE
REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER. TEMPS ARE FALLING SLOWER THAN
FORECAST SO HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY DATA...BASED ON OBS
AND TRENDS.

TROUGH PUSHES S OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A
LIGHT NW FLOW OVERNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
IN THE NYC METRO AREA TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN
ALONG THE COAST...AND UPPER 70S WEST OF NYC. GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY BEGIN BY LATE MORNING. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING
ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF HIGH- BASED STRATOCU AND A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TRANSLATES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUN. TO THE WEST...AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL
LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE MON INTO
TUE. GLOBAL MODELS IN PARTICULAR...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT LARGER
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH QPF.

THIS WILL RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE
BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWS TUE MORNING. STRONG
WAA ON MON WITH A 50-60 KT SE LLJ WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD
ALSO RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED THUNDER MON NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM NYC AND
POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THE SE FLOW WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
GUST UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT TEMP
PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM COMING
DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS AND/OR
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A SEASONABLE
AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH EAST OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT PASSES THIS EVE...ALLOWING HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN FROM
THE W ON SAT.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THEN BACK
TO THE W OR SW SAT MORNING. WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KT ON SAT...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON SAT.
BEST CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZES ARE WITH KJFK...KISP...AND KBDR.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY VARY TO AROUND 180 TRUE AT TIMES
THRU 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NGT...VFR WITH DECREASING WINDS.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW 10-15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT
BUILDING OCEAN SEAS GENERALLY TO 3 TO 4 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON MON...THEN WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM
GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND AFTER FEEDBACK FROM FIRE
WEATHER OFFICIALS REPORTING DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FROM NYC AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

.COASTAL FLOODING...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KOKX WSR-88D IS OUT OF SERVICE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN
NOTIFIED. ESTIMATED TIME OF REPAIR IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 180020
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
820 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH BY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN
GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES
OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT...SO HAVE
REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER. TEMPS ARE FALLING SLOWER THAN
FORECAST SO HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY DATA...BASED ON OBS
AND TRENDS.

TROUGH PUSHES S OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A
LIGHT NW FLOW OVERNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
IN THE NYC METRO AREA TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN
ALONG THE COAST...AND UPPER 70S WEST OF NYC. GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY BEGIN BY LATE MORNING. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING
ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF HIGH- BASED STRATOCU AND A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TRANSLATES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUN. TO THE WEST...AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL
LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE MON INTO
TUE. GLOBAL MODELS IN PARTICULAR...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT LARGER
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH QPF.

THIS WILL RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE
BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWS TUE MORNING. STRONG
WAA ON MON WITH A 50-60 KT SE LLJ WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD
ALSO RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED THUNDER MON NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM NYC AND
POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THE SE FLOW WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
GUST UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT TEMP
PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM COMING
DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS AND/OR
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A SEASONABLE
AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH EAST OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT PASSES THIS EVE...ALLOWING HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN FROM
THE W ON SAT.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THEN BACK
TO THE W OR SW SAT MORNING. WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KT ON SAT...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON SAT.
BEST CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZES ARE WITH KJFK...KISP...AND KBDR.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY VARY TO AROUND 180 TRUE AT TIMES
THRU 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NGT...VFR WITH DECREASING WINDS.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW 10-15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT
BUILDING OCEAN SEAS GENERALLY TO 3 TO 4 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON MON...THEN WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM
GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND AFTER FEEDBACK FROM FIRE
WEATHER OFFICIALS REPORTING DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FROM NYC AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

.COASTAL FLOODING...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KOKX WSR-88D IS OUT OF SERVICE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN
NOTIFIED. ESTIMATED TIME OF REPAIR IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 180007
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
807 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH BY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN
GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES
OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70 WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF
PARTIAL CLEARING. INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NJ. SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS VIA EVAPORATIVE
COOLING OF PRECIPITATION IN A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK PSEUDO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BRINGING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH A WIDE RANGE IN LOW TEMPS
EXPECTED...RANGING FROM THE 40S IN MOST PLACES...TO THE 50S INVOF
NYC.

SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN ALONG THE
COAST...AND UPPER 70S WEST OF NYC. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN
BY LATE MORNING. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A BAND OF HIGH- BASED STRATOCU AND A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TRANSLATES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUN. TO THE WEST...AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL
LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE MON INTO
TUE. GLOBAL MODELS IN PARTICULAR...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT LARGER
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH QPF.

THIS WILL RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE
BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWS TUE MORNING. STRONG
WAA ON MON WITH A 50-60 KT SE LLJ WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD
ALSO RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED THUNDER MON NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM NYC AND
POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THE SE FLOW WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
GUST UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT TEMP
PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM COMING
DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS AND/OR
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A SEASONABLE
AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH EAST OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT PASSES THIS EVE...ALLOWING HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN FROM
THE W ON SAT.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THEN BACK
TO THE W OR SW SAT MORNING. WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KT ON SAT...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON SAT.
BEST CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZES ARE WITH KJFK...KISP...AND KBDR.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY VARY TO AROUND 180 TRUE AT TIMES
THRU 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NGT...VFR WITH DECREASING WINDS.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW 10-15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT
BUILDING OCEAN SEAS GENERALLY TO 3 TO 4 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON MON...THEN WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM
GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND AFTER FEEDBACK FROM FIRE
WEATHER OFFICIALS REPORTING DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FROM NYC AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

.COASTAL FLOODING...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD
NEAR TERM...MD
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JMC/JP
MARINE...MD/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MD





000
FXUS61 KOKX 180007
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
807 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH BY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN
GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES
OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70 WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF
PARTIAL CLEARING. INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NJ. SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS VIA EVAPORATIVE
COOLING OF PRECIPITATION IN A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK PSEUDO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BRINGING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH A WIDE RANGE IN LOW TEMPS
EXPECTED...RANGING FROM THE 40S IN MOST PLACES...TO THE 50S INVOF
NYC.

SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN ALONG THE
COAST...AND UPPER 70S WEST OF NYC. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN
BY LATE MORNING. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A BAND OF HIGH- BASED STRATOCU AND A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TRANSLATES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUN. TO THE WEST...AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL
LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE MON INTO
TUE. GLOBAL MODELS IN PARTICULAR...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT LARGER
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH QPF.

THIS WILL RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE
BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWS TUE MORNING. STRONG
WAA ON MON WITH A 50-60 KT SE LLJ WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD
ALSO RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED THUNDER MON NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM NYC AND
POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THE SE FLOW WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
GUST UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT TEMP
PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM COMING
DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS AND/OR
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A SEASONABLE
AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH EAST OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT PASSES THIS EVE...ALLOWING HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN FROM
THE W ON SAT.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THEN BACK
TO THE W OR SW SAT MORNING. WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KT ON SAT...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON SAT.
BEST CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZES ARE WITH KJFK...KISP...AND KBDR.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY VARY TO AROUND 180 TRUE AT TIMES
THRU 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NGT...VFR WITH DECREASING WINDS.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW 10-15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT
BUILDING OCEAN SEAS GENERALLY TO 3 TO 4 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON MON...THEN WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM
GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND AFTER FEEDBACK FROM FIRE
WEATHER OFFICIALS REPORTING DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FROM NYC AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

.COASTAL FLOODING...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD
NEAR TERM...MD
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JMC/JP
MARINE...MD/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MD




000
FXUS61 KOKX 180007
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
807 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH BY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN
GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES
OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70 WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF
PARTIAL CLEARING. INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NJ. SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS VIA EVAPORATIVE
COOLING OF PRECIPITATION IN A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK PSEUDO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BRINGING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH A WIDE RANGE IN LOW TEMPS
EXPECTED...RANGING FROM THE 40S IN MOST PLACES...TO THE 50S INVOF
NYC.

SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN ALONG THE
COAST...AND UPPER 70S WEST OF NYC. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN
BY LATE MORNING. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A BAND OF HIGH- BASED STRATOCU AND A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TRANSLATES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUN. TO THE WEST...AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL
LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE MON INTO
TUE. GLOBAL MODELS IN PARTICULAR...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT LARGER
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH QPF.

THIS WILL RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE
BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWS TUE MORNING. STRONG
WAA ON MON WITH A 50-60 KT SE LLJ WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD
ALSO RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED THUNDER MON NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM NYC AND
POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THE SE FLOW WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
GUST UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT TEMP
PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM COMING
DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS AND/OR
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A SEASONABLE
AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH EAST OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT PASSES THIS EVE...ALLOWING HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN FROM
THE W ON SAT.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THEN BACK
TO THE W OR SW SAT MORNING. WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KT ON SAT...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON SAT.
BEST CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZES ARE WITH KJFK...KISP...AND KBDR.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY VARY TO AROUND 180 TRUE AT TIMES
THRU 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NGT...VFR WITH DECREASING WINDS.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW 10-15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT
BUILDING OCEAN SEAS GENERALLY TO 3 TO 4 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON MON...THEN WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM
GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND AFTER FEEDBACK FROM FIRE
WEATHER OFFICIALS REPORTING DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FROM NYC AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

.COASTAL FLOODING...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD
NEAR TERM...MD
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JMC/JP
MARINE...MD/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MD




000
FXUS61 KOKX 180007
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
807 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH BY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN
GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES
OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70 WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF
PARTIAL CLEARING. INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NJ. SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS VIA EVAPORATIVE
COOLING OF PRECIPITATION IN A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK PSEUDO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BRINGING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH A WIDE RANGE IN LOW TEMPS
EXPECTED...RANGING FROM THE 40S IN MOST PLACES...TO THE 50S INVOF
NYC.

SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN ALONG THE
COAST...AND UPPER 70S WEST OF NYC. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN
BY LATE MORNING. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A BAND OF HIGH- BASED STRATOCU AND A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TRANSLATES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUN. TO THE WEST...AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL
LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE MON INTO
TUE. GLOBAL MODELS IN PARTICULAR...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT LARGER
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH QPF.

THIS WILL RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE
BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWS TUE MORNING. STRONG
WAA ON MON WITH A 50-60 KT SE LLJ WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD
ALSO RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED THUNDER MON NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM NYC AND
POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THE SE FLOW WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
GUST UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT TEMP
PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM COMING
DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS AND/OR
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A SEASONABLE
AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH EAST OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT PASSES THIS EVE...ALLOWING HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN FROM
THE W ON SAT.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THEN BACK
TO THE W OR SW SAT MORNING. WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KT ON SAT...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON SAT.
BEST CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZES ARE WITH KJFK...KISP...AND KBDR.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY VARY TO AROUND 180 TRUE AT TIMES
THRU 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NGT...VFR WITH DECREASING WINDS.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW 10-15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT
BUILDING OCEAN SEAS GENERALLY TO 3 TO 4 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON MON...THEN WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM
GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND AFTER FEEDBACK FROM FIRE
WEATHER OFFICIALS REPORTING DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FROM NYC AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

.COASTAL FLOODING...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD
NEAR TERM...MD
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JMC/JP
MARINE...MD/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MD





000
FXUS61 KOKX 171959
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH BY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN
GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES
OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70 WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF
PARTIAL CLEARING. INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NJ. SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS VIA EVAPORATIVE
COOLING OF PRECIPITATION IN A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK PSEUDO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BRINGING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH A WIDE RANGE IN LOW TEMPS
EXPECTED...RANGING FROM THE 40S IN MOST PLACES...TO THE 50S INVOF
NYC.

SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN ALONG THE
COAST...AND UPPER 70S WEST OF NYC. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN
BY LATE MORNING. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A BAND OF HIGH- BASED STRATOCU AND A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TRANSLATES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUN. TO THE WEST...AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL
LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE MON INTO
TUE. GLOBAL MODELS IN PARTICULAR...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT LARGER
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH QPF.

THIS WILL RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE
BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWS TUE MORNING. STRONG
WAA ON MON WITH A 50-60 KT SE LLJ WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD
ALSO RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED THUNDER MON NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM NYC AND
POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THE SE FLOW WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
GUST UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT TEMP
PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM COMING
DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS AND/OR
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A SEASONABLE
AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH EAST OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SCATTERED -SHRA WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. A RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE IN ANY -SHRA. A TSTM IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS.

KGON WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND COULD REMAIN MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL BETWEEN 06Z-09Z.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...THEN BACK TO THE W OR SW SAT MORNING. WINDS WILL GUST
20-25 KT ON SAT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON SAT. BEST CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZES ARE
WITH KJFK...KISP...AND KBDR.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SFC WND NW 10-15KT INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO G25KT
LATE AFTN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SFC WND NW 10-15KT INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO G25KT
LATE AFTN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW 10-15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT
BUILDING OCEAN SEAS GENERALLY TO 3 TO 4 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON MON...THEN WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM
GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND AFTER FEEDBACK FROM FIRE
WEATHER OFFICIALS REPORTING DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FROM NYC AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

.COASTAL FLOODING...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD
NEAR TERM...MD
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...MD/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MD




000
FXUS61 KOKX 171959 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH BY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN
GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES
OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70 WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF
PARTIAL CLEARING. INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NJ. SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS VIA EVAPORATIVE
COOLING OF PRECIPITATION IN A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK PSEUDO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BRINGING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH A WIDE RANGE IN LOW TEMPS
EXPECTED...RANGING FROM THE 40S IN MOST PLACES...TO THE 50S INVOF
NYC.

SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN ALONG THE
COAST...AND UPPER 70S WEST OF NYC. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN
BY LATE MORNING. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A BAND OF HIGH- BASED STRATOCU AND A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TRANSLATES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUN. TO THE WEST...AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL
LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE MON INTO
TUE. GLOBAL MODELS IN PARTICULAR...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT LARGER
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH QPF.

THIS WILL RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE
BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWS TUE MORNING. STRONG
WAA ON MON WITH A 50-60 KT SE LLJ WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD
ALSO RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED THUNDER MON NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM NYC AND
POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THE SE FLOW WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
GUST UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT TEMP
PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM COMING
DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS AND/OR
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A SEASONABLE
AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH EAST OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SCATTERED -SHRA WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. A RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE IN ANY -SHRA. A TSTM IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS.

KGON WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND COULD REMAIN MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL BETWEEN 06Z-09Z.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...THEN BACK TO THE W OR SW SAT MORNING. WINDS WILL GUST
20-25 KT ON SAT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON SAT. BEST CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZES ARE
WITH KJFK...KISP...AND KBDR.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SFC WND NW 10-15KT INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO G25KT
LATE AFTN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.


&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW 10-15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT
BUILDING OCEAN SEAS GENERALLY TO 3 TO 4 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON MON...THEN WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM
GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND AFTER FEEDBACK FROM FIRE
WEATHER OFFICIALS REPORTING DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FROM NYC AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

.COASTAL FLOODING...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD
NEAR TERM...MD
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...MD/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MD




000
FXUS61 KOKX 171959
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH BY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN
GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES
OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70 WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF
PARTIAL CLEARING. INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NJ. SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS VIA EVAPORATIVE
COOLING OF PRECIPITATION IN A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK PSEUDO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BRINGING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH A WIDE RANGE IN LOW TEMPS
EXPECTED...RANGING FROM THE 40S IN MOST PLACES...TO THE 50S INVOF
NYC.

SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN ALONG THE
COAST...AND UPPER 70S WEST OF NYC. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN
BY LATE MORNING. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A BAND OF HIGH- BASED STRATOCU AND A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TRANSLATES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUN. TO THE WEST...AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL
LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE MON INTO
TUE. GLOBAL MODELS IN PARTICULAR...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT LARGER
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH QPF.

THIS WILL RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE
BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWS TUE MORNING. STRONG
WAA ON MON WITH A 50-60 KT SE LLJ WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD
ALSO RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED THUNDER MON NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM NYC AND
POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THE SE FLOW WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
GUST UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT TEMP
PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM COMING
DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS AND/OR
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A SEASONABLE
AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH EAST OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SCATTERED -SHRA WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. A RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE IN ANY -SHRA. A TSTM IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS.

KGON WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND COULD REMAIN MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL BETWEEN 06Z-09Z.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...THEN BACK TO THE W OR SW SAT MORNING. WINDS WILL GUST
20-25 KT ON SAT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON SAT. BEST CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZES ARE
WITH KJFK...KISP...AND KBDR.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SFC WND NW 10-15KT INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO G25KT
LATE AFTN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SFC WND NW 10-15KT INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO G25KT
LATE AFTN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW 10-15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT
BUILDING OCEAN SEAS GENERALLY TO 3 TO 4 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON MON...THEN WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM
GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND AFTER FEEDBACK FROM FIRE
WEATHER OFFICIALS REPORTING DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FROM NYC AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

.COASTAL FLOODING...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD
NEAR TERM...MD
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...MD/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MD





000
FXUS61 KOKX 171959
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH BY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN
GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES
OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70 WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF
PARTIAL CLEARING. INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NJ. SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS VIA EVAPORATIVE
COOLING OF PRECIPITATION IN A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK PSEUDO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BRINGING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH A WIDE RANGE IN LOW TEMPS
EXPECTED...RANGING FROM THE 40S IN MOST PLACES...TO THE 50S INVOF
NYC.

SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN ALONG THE
COAST...AND UPPER 70S WEST OF NYC. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN
BY LATE MORNING. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A BAND OF HIGH- BASED STRATOCU AND A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TRANSLATES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUN. TO THE WEST...AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL
LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE MON INTO
TUE. GLOBAL MODELS IN PARTICULAR...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT LARGER
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH QPF.

THIS WILL RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE
BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWS TUE MORNING. STRONG
WAA ON MON WITH A 50-60 KT SE LLJ WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD
ALSO RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED THUNDER MON NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM NYC AND
POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THE SE FLOW WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
GUST UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT TEMP
PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM COMING
DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS AND/OR
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A SEASONABLE
AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH EAST OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SCATTERED -SHRA WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. A RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE IN ANY -SHRA. A TSTM IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS.

KGON WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND COULD REMAIN MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL BETWEEN 06Z-09Z.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...THEN BACK TO THE W OR SW SAT MORNING. WINDS WILL GUST
20-25 KT ON SAT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON SAT. BEST CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZES ARE
WITH KJFK...KISP...AND KBDR.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SFC WND NW 10-15KT INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO G25KT
LATE AFTN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SFC WND NW 10-15KT INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO G25KT
LATE AFTN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW 10-15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT
BUILDING OCEAN SEAS GENERALLY TO 3 TO 4 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON MON...THEN WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM
GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND AFTER FEEDBACK FROM FIRE
WEATHER OFFICIALS REPORTING DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FROM NYC AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

.COASTAL FLOODING...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD
NEAR TERM...MD
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...MD/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MD




000
FXUS61 KOKX 171959
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH BY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN
GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES
OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70 WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF
PARTIAL CLEARING. INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NJ. SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS VIA EVAPORATIVE
COOLING OF PRECIPITATION IN A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK PSEUDO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BRINGING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH A WIDE RANGE IN LOW TEMPS
EXPECTED...RANGING FROM THE 40S IN MOST PLACES...TO THE 50S INVOF
NYC.

SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN ALONG THE
COAST...AND UPPER 70S WEST OF NYC. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN
BY LATE MORNING. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A BAND OF HIGH- BASED STRATOCU AND A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TRANSLATES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUN. TO THE WEST...AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL
LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE MON INTO
TUE. GLOBAL MODELS IN PARTICULAR...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT LARGER
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH QPF.

THIS WILL RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE
BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWS TUE MORNING. STRONG
WAA ON MON WITH A 50-60 KT SE LLJ WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD
ALSO RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED THUNDER MON NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM NYC AND
POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THE SE FLOW WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
GUST UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT TEMP
PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM COMING
DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS AND/OR
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A SEASONABLE
AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH EAST OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SCATTERED -SHRA WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. A RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE IN ANY -SHRA. A TSTM IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS.

KGON WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND COULD REMAIN MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL BETWEEN 06Z-09Z.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...THEN BACK TO THE W OR SW SAT MORNING. WINDS WILL GUST
20-25 KT ON SAT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON SAT. BEST CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZES ARE
WITH KJFK...KISP...AND KBDR.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SFC WND NW 10-15KT INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO G25KT
LATE AFTN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SFC WND NW 10-15KT INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO G25KT
LATE AFTN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW 10-15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT
BUILDING OCEAN SEAS GENERALLY TO 3 TO 4 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON MON...THEN WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM
GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND AFTER FEEDBACK FROM FIRE
WEATHER OFFICIALS REPORTING DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FROM NYC AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

.COASTAL FLOODING...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD
NEAR TERM...MD
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...MD/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MD





000
FXUS61 KOKX 171959 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH BY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN
GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES
OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70 WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF
PARTIAL CLEARING. INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NJ. SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS VIA EVAPORATIVE
COOLING OF PRECIPITATION IN A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK PSEUDO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BRINGING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH A WIDE RANGE IN LOW TEMPS
EXPECTED...RANGING FROM THE 40S IN MOST PLACES...TO THE 50S INVOF
NYC.

SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN ALONG THE
COAST...AND UPPER 70S WEST OF NYC. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN
BY LATE MORNING. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A BAND OF HIGH- BASED STRATOCU AND A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TRANSLATES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUN. TO THE WEST...AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL
LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE MON INTO
TUE. GLOBAL MODELS IN PARTICULAR...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT LARGER
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH QPF.

THIS WILL RESULT IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE
BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...IN ESSENCE KEEPING THE AREA JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWS TUE MORNING. STRONG
WAA ON MON WITH A 50-60 KT SE LLJ WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD
ALSO RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED THUNDER MON NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM NYC AND
POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THE SE FLOW WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
GUST UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL POSSIBLE AT THE SFC ON MON...BUT TEMP
PROFILES WILL BE INVERTED LIMITING ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM COMING
DOWN.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUE INTO WED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS AND/OR
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL REINFORCE A SEASONABLE
AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD...FLAT TROUGH EAST OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SCATTERED -SHRA WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. A RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE IN ANY -SHRA. A TSTM IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS.

KGON WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND COULD REMAIN MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL BETWEEN 06Z-09Z.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...THEN BACK TO THE W OR SW SAT MORNING. WINDS WILL GUST
20-25 KT ON SAT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON SAT. BEST CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZES ARE
WITH KJFK...KISP...AND KBDR.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SFC WND NW 10-15KT INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO G25KT
LATE AFTN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.


&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW 10-15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT
BUILDING OCEAN SEAS GENERALLY TO 3 TO 4 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS LATE SUN AFT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON MON...THEN WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-30 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM
GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND AFTER FEEDBACK FROM FIRE
WEATHER OFFICIALS REPORTING DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FROM NYC AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

.COASTAL FLOODING...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON ON SAT. IN SOME
CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED.
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD
NEAR TERM...MD
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...MD/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MD





000
FXUS61 KOKX 171807
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
207 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
PASS THROUGH BY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY
AND PASS THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO...AND PASS EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL
THEN MAKE ITS WAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND IMPACT THE AREA
FROM MON INTO TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER THIS MORNING`S RAIN IS LEADING TO WEAK
DESTABILIZATION WEST OF THE CITY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 3 PM. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS VIA EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF PRECIPITATION
IN A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK PSEUDO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BRINGING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH A WIDE RANGE IN LOW TEMPS
EXPECTED...RANGING FROM THE 40S IN MOST PLACES...TO THE 50S INVOF
NYC...AND POSSIBLY NOT FALLING BELOW 60 AT KLGA.

SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN ALONG THE
COAST...AND NEAR 80 WEST OF NYC. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF HIGH-BASED STRATOCU AND A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND IMPACT THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE RAINFALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AS IT INTERACTS WITH A TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NORTHWARD UP THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST LATE MONDAY EVENING.

RAIN TAPERS OFF TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

GENERALLY MVFR THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. VFR AFTER 20Z.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED -SHRA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z...BUT
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPO -SHRA IS 21Z- 02Z. A RETURN TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE IN ANY -SHRA. A TSTM IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...THEN BACK TO THE W OR SW SAT MORNING. WINDS WILL GUST
20-25 KT ON SAT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON SAT. BEST CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZES ARE
WITH KJFK...KISP...AND KBDR.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SFC WND NW 10-15KT INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO G25KT
LATE AFTN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW INCREASING TO JUST OVER 15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY BUILD OCEAN SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SITUATION NOT QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ISSUANCE OF AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO SCA CONDITIONS ON MON AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES...WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SE-S WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-25 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TODAY AFTER
FEEDBACK FROM FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS REPORTING DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 2-3 TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED THROUGH LATE DAY TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MMD/BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MMD/BC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MMD
HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN





000
FXUS61 KOKX 171807
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
207 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
PASS THROUGH BY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY
AND PASS THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO...AND PASS EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL
THEN MAKE ITS WAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND IMPACT THE AREA
FROM MON INTO TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER THIS MORNING`S RAIN IS LEADING TO WEAK
DESTABILIZATION WEST OF THE CITY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 3 PM. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS VIA EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF PRECIPITATION
IN A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK PSEUDO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BRINGING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH A WIDE RANGE IN LOW TEMPS
EXPECTED...RANGING FROM THE 40S IN MOST PLACES...TO THE 50S INVOF
NYC...AND POSSIBLY NOT FALLING BELOW 60 AT KLGA.

SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN ALONG THE
COAST...AND NEAR 80 WEST OF NYC. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF HIGH-BASED STRATOCU AND A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND IMPACT THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE RAINFALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AS IT INTERACTS WITH A TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NORTHWARD UP THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST LATE MONDAY EVENING.

RAIN TAPERS OFF TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

GENERALLY MVFR THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. VFR AFTER 20Z.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED -SHRA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z...BUT
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPO -SHRA IS 21Z- 02Z. A RETURN TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE IN ANY -SHRA. A TSTM IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...THEN BACK TO THE W OR SW SAT MORNING. WINDS WILL GUST
20-25 KT ON SAT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON SAT. BEST CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZES ARE
WITH KJFK...KISP...AND KBDR.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LONGER THAN IS FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SFC WND NW 10-15KT INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO G25KT
LATE AFTN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW INCREASING TO JUST OVER 15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY BUILD OCEAN SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SITUATION NOT QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ISSUANCE OF AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO SCA CONDITIONS ON MON AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES...WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SE-S WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-25 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING
FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TODAY AFTER
FEEDBACK FROM FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS REPORTING DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 2-3 TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED THROUGH LATE DAY TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MMD/BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MMD/BC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MMD
HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN




000
FXUS61 KOKX 171446
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1046 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
PASS THROUGH BY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY
AND PASS THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO...AND PASS EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL
THEN MAKE ITS WAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND IMPACT THE AREA
FROM MON INTO TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO EXIT FAR ERN
SECTIONS BY 15Z-16Z. A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
FROM NYC WEST TO REACH THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY AFTER 3 PM. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS VIA EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF PRECIP IN A
RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK PSEUDO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BRINGING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH A WIDE RANGE IN LOW TEMPS
EXPECTED...RANGING FROM THE 40S IN MOST PLACES...TO THE 50S INVOF
NYC...AND POSSIBLY NOT FALLING BELOW 60 AT KLGA.

SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN ALONG THE
COAST...AND NEAR 80 WEST OF NYC. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF HIGH-BASED STRATOCU AND A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND IMPACT THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE RAINFALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AS IT INTERACTS WITH A TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NORTHWARD UP THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST LATE MONDAY EVENING.

RAIN TAPERS OFF TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

GENERALLY MVFR THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPO IFR THROUGH 16Z. LIKELY DRY UNTIL
AT LEAST 17-18Z...THEN ISO SHRA/TSTM UNTIL 00-01Z. COVERAGE AND
CHANCES NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHRA/TSTM IN TAFS.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST THRU THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS TO MODERATE THIS AFTN...PRIMARILY FOR DIRECTION.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC WINDS BACK TOWARD 190-180 MAG THIS AFTN.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC MVFR CIGS PREVAIL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AM
AFTER 13Z. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SFC WND NW 10-15KT INCREASING WITH G25-30KT LATE AFTN.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW INCREASING TO JUST OVER 15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY BUILD OCEAN SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SITUATION NOT QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ISSUANCE OF AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO SCA CONDITIONS ON MON AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES...WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SE-S WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-25 PERCENT...AND WEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
GROWTH/SPREAD SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL NEED TO
EVALUATE IMPACT OF RAINFALL TODAY ON FINE FUEL MOISTURE BEFORE
ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 2-3 TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED THROUGH LATE DAY TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MMD/BC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JP/JC
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN




000
FXUS61 KOKX 171446
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1046 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
PASS THROUGH BY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY
AND PASS THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO...AND PASS EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL
THEN MAKE ITS WAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND IMPACT THE AREA
FROM MON INTO TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO EXIT FAR ERN
SECTIONS BY 15Z-16Z. A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
FROM NYC WEST TO REACH THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY AFTER 3 PM. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS VIA EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF PRECIP IN A
RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK PSEUDO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BRINGING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH A WIDE RANGE IN LOW TEMPS
EXPECTED...RANGING FROM THE 40S IN MOST PLACES...TO THE 50S INVOF
NYC...AND POSSIBLY NOT FALLING BELOW 60 AT KLGA.

SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN ALONG THE
COAST...AND NEAR 80 WEST OF NYC. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF HIGH-BASED STRATOCU AND A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND IMPACT THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE RAINFALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AS IT INTERACTS WITH A TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NORTHWARD UP THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST LATE MONDAY EVENING.

RAIN TAPERS OFF TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

GENERALLY MVFR THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPO IFR THROUGH 16Z. LIKELY DRY UNTIL
AT LEAST 17-18Z...THEN ISO SHRA/TSTM UNTIL 00-01Z. COVERAGE AND
CHANCES NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHRA/TSTM IN TAFS.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST THRU THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS TO MODERATE THIS AFTN...PRIMARILY FOR DIRECTION.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC WINDS BACK TOWARD 190-180 MAG THIS AFTN.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC MVFR CIGS PREVAIL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AM
AFTER 13Z. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SFC WND NW 10-15KT INCREASING WITH G25-30KT LATE AFTN.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW INCREASING TO JUST OVER 15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY BUILD OCEAN SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SITUATION NOT QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ISSUANCE OF AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO SCA CONDITIONS ON MON AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES...WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SE-S WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-25 PERCENT...AND WEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
GROWTH/SPREAD SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL NEED TO
EVALUATE IMPACT OF RAINFALL TODAY ON FINE FUEL MOISTURE BEFORE
ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 2-3 TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED THROUGH LATE DAY TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MMD/BC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JP/JC
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN





000
FXUS61 KOKX 170855
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
455 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON...AND PASS THROUGH BY THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH
LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO...AND PASS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND IMPACT THE AREA FROM MON INTO TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFUSE WARM FRONT MOVING IN MORE
QUICKLY THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...WITH FASTER RAP/HRRR
TIMING GENERALLY BETTER. THIS MEANS THE FIRST ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN
MAY CLEAR NYC METRO BY 12Z-13Z AND FAR ERN SECTIONS BY 15Z-16Z.
THIS BREAK SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS FROM NYC WEST TO REACH THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH VERY MODEST CAPE CONFINED
MOSTLY BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL...DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER...BUT
SOME SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS VIA EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF
PRECIP IN A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK PSEUDO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BRINGING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH A WIDE RANGE IN LOW TEMPS
EXPECTED...RANGING FROM THE 40S IN MOST PLACES...TO THE 50S INVOF
NYC...AND POSSIBLY NOT FALLING BELOW 60 AT KLGA.

SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN ALONG THE
COAST...AND NEAR 80 WEST OF NYC. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF HIGH-BASED STRATOCU AND A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND IMPACT THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE RAINFALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AS IT INTERACTS WITH A TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NORTHWARD UP THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST LATE MONDAY EVENING.

RAIN TAPERS OFF TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRIMARILY VFR...BUT TEMPO OR POTENTIALLY PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING. -RA/-SHRA SHIFTS EAST OF THE CITY TERMINALS 11Z. LIKELY DRY
UNTIL AT LEAST 17-18Z...THEN ISO SHRA/TSTM UNTIL 00-01Z. COVERAGE
AND CHANCES NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHRA/TSTM IN TAFS.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST THRU THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS TO MODERATE THIS AFTN...PRIMARILY FOR DIRECTION.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC WINDS BACK TOWARD 190-180 MAG THIS AFTN.
CHC MVFR CIGS PREVAIL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AM AFTER 13Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC MVFR CIGS PREVAIL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AM
AFTER 13Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC MVFR CIGS PREVAIL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AM
AFTER 13Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC MVFR CIGS PREVAIL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AM
AFTER 13Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC MVFR CIGS PREVAIL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AM
AFTER 13Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCAIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20KT POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. CHC MVFR CIGS PREVAIL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AM AFTER 14Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SFC WND NW 10-15KT INCREASING WITH G25-30KT LATE AFTN.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW INCREASING TO JUST OVER 15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY BUILD OCEAN SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SITUATION NOT QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ISSUANCE OF AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO SCA CONDITIONS ON MON AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES...WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SE-S WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-25 PERCENT...AND WEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
GROWTH/SPREAD SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL NEED TO
EVALUATE IMPACT OF RAINFALL TODAY ON FINE FUEL MOISTURE BEFORE
ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 2-3 TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED THROUGH LATE DAY TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN





000
FXUS61 KOKX 170855
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
455 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON...AND PASS THROUGH BY THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH
LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO...AND PASS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND IMPACT THE AREA FROM MON INTO TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFUSE WARM FRONT MOVING IN MORE
QUICKLY THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...WITH FASTER RAP/HRRR
TIMING GENERALLY BETTER. THIS MEANS THE FIRST ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN
MAY CLEAR NYC METRO BY 12Z-13Z AND FAR ERN SECTIONS BY 15Z-16Z.
THIS BREAK SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS FROM NYC WEST TO REACH THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH VERY MODEST CAPE CONFINED
MOSTLY BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL...DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER...BUT
SOME SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS VIA EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF
PRECIP IN A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK PSEUDO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BRINGING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH A WIDE RANGE IN LOW TEMPS
EXPECTED...RANGING FROM THE 40S IN MOST PLACES...TO THE 50S INVOF
NYC...AND POSSIBLY NOT FALLING BELOW 60 AT KLGA.

SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN ALONG THE
COAST...AND NEAR 80 WEST OF NYC. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF HIGH-BASED STRATOCU AND A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND IMPACT THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE RAINFALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AS IT INTERACTS WITH A TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NORTHWARD UP THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST LATE MONDAY EVENING.

RAIN TAPERS OFF TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRIMARILY VFR...BUT TEMPO OR POTENTIALLY PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING. -RA/-SHRA SHIFTS EAST OF THE CITY TERMINALS 11Z. LIKELY DRY
UNTIL AT LEAST 17-18Z...THEN ISO SHRA/TSTM UNTIL 00-01Z. COVERAGE
AND CHANCES NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHRA/TSTM IN TAFS.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST THRU THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS TO MODERATE THIS AFTN...PRIMARILY FOR DIRECTION.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC WINDS BACK TOWARD 190-180 MAG THIS AFTN.
CHC MVFR CIGS PREVAIL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AM AFTER 13Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC MVFR CIGS PREVAIL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AM
AFTER 13Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC MVFR CIGS PREVAIL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AM
AFTER 13Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC MVFR CIGS PREVAIL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AM
AFTER 13Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC MVFR CIGS PREVAIL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AM
AFTER 13Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCAIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20KT POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. CHC MVFR CIGS PREVAIL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AM AFTER 14Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SFC WND NW 10-15KT INCREASING WITH G25-30KT LATE AFTN.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW INCREASING TO JUST OVER 15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY BUILD OCEAN SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SITUATION NOT QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ISSUANCE OF AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO SCA CONDITIONS ON MON AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES...WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SE-S WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-25 PERCENT...AND WEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
GROWTH/SPREAD SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL NEED TO
EVALUATE IMPACT OF RAINFALL TODAY ON FINE FUEL MOISTURE BEFORE
ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 2-3 TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED THROUGH LATE DAY TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN




000
FXUS61 KOKX 170824 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
416 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON...AND PASS THROUGH BY THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH
LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO...AND PASS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND IMPACT THE AREA FROM MON INTO TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFUSE WARM FRONT MOVING IN MORE
QUICKLY THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...WITH FASTER RAP/HRRR
TIMING GENERALLY BETTER. THIS MEANS THE FIRST ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN
MAY CLEAR NYC METRO BY 12Z-13Z AND FAR ERN SECTIONS BY 15Z-16Z.
THIS BREAK SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS FROM NYC WEST TO REACH THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH VERY MODEST CAPE CONFINED
MOSTLY BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL...DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER...BUT
SOME SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS VIA EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF
PRECIP IN A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK PSEUDO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BRINGING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH A WIDE RANGE IN LOW TEMPS
EXPECTED...RANGING FROM THE 40S IN MOST PLACES...TO THE 50S INVOF
NYC...AND POSSIBLY NOT FALLING BELOW 60 AT KLGA.

SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN ALONG THE
COAST...AND NEAR 80 WEST OF NYC. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF HIGH-BASED STRATOCU AND A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND IMPACT THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE RAINFALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AS IT INTERACTS WITH A TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NORTHWARD UP THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST LATE MONDAY EVENING.

RAIN TAPERS OFF TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

VFR UNTIL 12-14Z...THEN MVFR. CHC TEMPO IFR CIGS FROM APPROX
14-16Z...BUT CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS. -SHRA ALSO MIGHT NOT OCCUR FROM APPROX 13Z-
19Z...WITH POSSIBLE -SHRA DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST THRU THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS THIS AFTN. KJFK COULD BE CLOSER TO AVERAGING
190-180 MAG THIS AFTN AND COULD OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SFC WND NW 10-15KT INCREASING WITH G25-30KT LATE AFTN.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10-15 IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW INCREASING TO JUST OVER 15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY BUILD OCEAN SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SITUATION NOT QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ISSUANCE OF AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO SCA CONDITIONS ON MON AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES...WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SE-S WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-25 PERCENT...AND WEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
GROWTH/SPREAD SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL NEED TO
EVALUATE IMPACT OF RAINFALL TODAY ON FINE FUEL MOISTURE BEFORE
ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 2-3 TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED THROUGH LATE DAY TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN




000
FXUS61 KOKX 170824 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
416 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON...AND PASS THROUGH BY THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH
LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO...AND PASS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND IMPACT THE AREA FROM MON INTO TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFUSE WARM FRONT MOVING IN MORE
QUICKLY THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...WITH FASTER RAP/HRRR
TIMING GENERALLY BETTER. THIS MEANS THE FIRST ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN
MAY CLEAR NYC METRO BY 12Z-13Z AND FAR ERN SECTIONS BY 15Z-16Z.
THIS BREAK SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS FROM NYC WEST TO REACH THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH VERY MODEST CAPE CONFINED
MOSTLY BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL...DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER...BUT
SOME SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS VIA EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF
PRECIP IN A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK PSEUDO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BRINGING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH A WIDE RANGE IN LOW TEMPS
EXPECTED...RANGING FROM THE 40S IN MOST PLACES...TO THE 50S INVOF
NYC...AND POSSIBLY NOT FALLING BELOW 60 AT KLGA.

SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN ALONG THE
COAST...AND NEAR 80 WEST OF NYC. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF HIGH-BASED STRATOCU AND A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND IMPACT THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE RAINFALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AS IT INTERACTS WITH A TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NORTHWARD UP THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST LATE MONDAY EVENING.

RAIN TAPERS OFF TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

VFR UNTIL 12-14Z...THEN MVFR. CHC TEMPO IFR CIGS FROM APPROX
14-16Z...BUT CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS. -SHRA ALSO MIGHT NOT OCCUR FROM APPROX 13Z-
19Z...WITH POSSIBLE -SHRA DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST THRU THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS THIS AFTN. KJFK COULD BE CLOSER TO AVERAGING
190-180 MAG THIS AFTN AND COULD OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SFC WND NW 10-15KT INCREASING WITH G25-30KT LATE AFTN.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10-15 IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW INCREASING TO JUST OVER 15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY BUILD OCEAN SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SITUATION NOT QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ISSUANCE OF AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO SCA CONDITIONS ON MON AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES...WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SE-S WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-25 PERCENT...AND WEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
GROWTH/SPREAD SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL NEED TO
EVALUATE IMPACT OF RAINFALL TODAY ON FINE FUEL MOISTURE BEFORE
ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 2-3 TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED THROUGH LATE DAY TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN





000
FXUS61 KOKX 170816
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
416 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON...AND PASS THROUGH BY THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH
LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO...AND PASS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG IT AND PASSING NEAR THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFUSE WARM FRONT MOVING IN MORE
QUICKLY THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...WITH FASTER RAP/HRRR
TIMING GENERALLY BETTER. THIS MEANS THE FIRST ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN
MAY CLEAR NYC METRO BY 12Z-13Z AND FAR ERN SECTIONS BY 15Z-16Z.
THIS BREAK SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS FROM NYC WEST TO REACH THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH VERY MODEST CAPE CONFINED
MOSTLY BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL...DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER...BUT
SOME SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS VIA EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF
PRECIP IN A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK PSEUDO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BRINGING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH A WIDE RANGE IN LOW TEMPS
EXPECTED...RANGING FROM THE 40S IN MOST PLACES...TO THE 50S INVOF
NYC...AND POSSIBLY NOT FALLING BELOW 60 AT KLGA.

SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN ALONG THE
COAST...AND NEAR 80 WEST OF NYC. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF HIGH-BASED STRATOCU AND A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND IMPACT THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE RAINFALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AS IT INTERACTS WITH A TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NORTHWARD UP THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST LATE MONDAY EVENING.

RAIN TAPERS OFF TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

VFR UNTIL 12-14Z...THEN MVFR. CHC TEMPO IFR CIGS FROM APPROX
14-16Z...BUT CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS. -SHRA ALSO MIGHT NOT OCCUR FROM APPROX 13Z-
19Z...WITH POSSIBLE -SHRA DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST THRU THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS THIS AFTN. KJFK COULD BE CLOSER TO AVERAGING
190-180 MAG THIS AFTN AND COULD OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SFC WND NW 10-15KT INCREASING WITH G25-30KT LATE AFTN.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10-15 IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW INCREASING TO JUST OVER 15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY BUILD OCEAN SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SITUATION NOT QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ISSUANCE OF AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO SCA CONDITIONS ON MON AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES...WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SE-S WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-25 PERCENT...AND WEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
GROWTH/SPREAD SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL NEED TO
EVALUATE IMPACT OF RAINFALL TODAY ON FINE FUEL MOISTURE BEFORE
ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 2-3 TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED THROUGH LATE DAY TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN




000
FXUS61 KOKX 170816
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
416 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON...AND PASS THROUGH BY THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH
LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO...AND PASS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG IT AND PASSING NEAR THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFUSE WARM FRONT MOVING IN MORE
QUICKLY THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...WITH FASTER RAP/HRRR
TIMING GENERALLY BETTER. THIS MEANS THE FIRST ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN
MAY CLEAR NYC METRO BY 12Z-13Z AND FAR ERN SECTIONS BY 15Z-16Z.
THIS BREAK SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS FROM NYC WEST TO REACH THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH VERY MODEST CAPE CONFINED
MOSTLY BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL...DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER...BUT
SOME SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS VIA EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF
PRECIP IN A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK PSEUDO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BRINGING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH A WIDE RANGE IN LOW TEMPS
EXPECTED...RANGING FROM THE 40S IN MOST PLACES...TO THE 50S INVOF
NYC...AND POSSIBLY NOT FALLING BELOW 60 AT KLGA.

SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN ALONG THE
COAST...AND NEAR 80 WEST OF NYC. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF HIGH-BASED STRATOCU AND A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND IMPACT THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE RAINFALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AS IT INTERACTS WITH A TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NORTHWARD UP THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST LATE MONDAY EVENING.

RAIN TAPERS OFF TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

VFR UNTIL 12-14Z...THEN MVFR. CHC TEMPO IFR CIGS FROM APPROX
14-16Z...BUT CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS. -SHRA ALSO MIGHT NOT OCCUR FROM APPROX 13Z-
19Z...WITH POSSIBLE -SHRA DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST THRU THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS THIS AFTN. KJFK COULD BE CLOSER TO AVERAGING
190-180 MAG THIS AFTN AND COULD OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SFC WND NW 10-15KT INCREASING WITH G25-30KT LATE AFTN.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10-15 IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW INCREASING TO JUST OVER 15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY BUILD OCEAN SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SITUATION NOT QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ISSUANCE OF AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO SCA CONDITIONS ON MON AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES...WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SE-S WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-25 PERCENT...AND WEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
GROWTH/SPREAD SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL NEED TO
EVALUATE IMPACT OF RAINFALL TODAY ON FINE FUEL MOISTURE BEFORE
ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 2-3 TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED THROUGH LATE DAY TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN





000
FXUS61 KOKX 170601
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
201 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...AND THEN PASSES
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL LOW WILL
THEN IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. AGAIN...JUST SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS
LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW BOTH
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF SHORT
WAVE TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WARM ADVECTION
PRECEDING THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING
WITH RAIN LIKELY BREAKING OUT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FROM WEST TO
EAST.

THE 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH DEVELOP A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED RAIN AXIS
WITH A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH. THE DIFFERENCE ARISES IN
PLACEMENT WITH THE NAM ACROSS NYC METRO/LI...AND THE GFS FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE 12Z ECMWF GENERATES A MORE
UNIFORM...LIGHTER RAINFALL EVENT. PREFERENCE IS TOWARD THE LATTER
DUE TO WEAK LIFT AND INSTABILITY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S
NYC METRO. THIS IS ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
RAIN ENDS BY EARLY FRI AFT FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS NRN NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN
THE AFT DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY AND DAYTIME HEATING.
GENERALLY LOOKING FOR A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FOR THE EVENT. HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFT AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

SFC FRONT OR WEAK TROF MOVES THROUGH IN THE EVENING WITH A LIGHT
NW FLOW IN ITS WAKE. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT...BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL LOW WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY UP THE COAST
AND IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS LOW HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AS IT INTERACTS
WITH A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NORTHWARD UP THE COAST.
ELEVATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY EVENING.

RAIN TAPPERS OFF TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

VFR UNTIL 12-14Z...THEN MVFR. CHC TEMPO IFR CIGS FROM APPROX
14-16Z...BUT CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS. -SHRA ALSO MIGHT NOT OCCUR FROM APPROX 13Z-
19Z...WITH POSSIBLE -SHRA DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST THRU THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS THIS AFTN. KJFK COULD BE CLOSER TO AVERAGING
190-180 MAG THIS AFTN AND COULD OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SFC WND NW 10-15KT INCREASING WITH G25-30KT LATE AFTN.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10-15 IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH A STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW.
A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI...AND
20 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS WERE CAPPED ON THE OCEAN AT 4 FT AS
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE IN THE S FLOW AT THE
OCEAN SFC, NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD SCA EVENT TO GO
WITH ONE AT THIS POINT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SEAS
BUILD TO SCA CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS A COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THE
COAST...WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SE-S WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KT. SEAS REMAIN ABOVE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING SEAS TO FALL BACK TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES POSSIBLY BELOW 30
PERCENT AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT MIGHT PRODUCE
GUSTY N/NW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...COULD INCREASE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AT THIS TIME IS BETWEEN 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS61 KOKX 170601
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
201 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...AND THEN PASSES
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL LOW WILL
THEN IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. AGAIN...JUST SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS
LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW BOTH
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF SHORT
WAVE TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WARM ADVECTION
PRECEDING THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING
WITH RAIN LIKELY BREAKING OUT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FROM WEST TO
EAST.

THE 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH DEVELOP A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED RAIN AXIS
WITH A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH. THE DIFFERENCE ARISES IN
PLACEMENT WITH THE NAM ACROSS NYC METRO/LI...AND THE GFS FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE 12Z ECMWF GENERATES A MORE
UNIFORM...LIGHTER RAINFALL EVENT. PREFERENCE IS TOWARD THE LATTER
DUE TO WEAK LIFT AND INSTABILITY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S
NYC METRO. THIS IS ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
RAIN ENDS BY EARLY FRI AFT FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS NRN NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN
THE AFT DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY AND DAYTIME HEATING.
GENERALLY LOOKING FOR A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FOR THE EVENT. HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFT AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

SFC FRONT OR WEAK TROF MOVES THROUGH IN THE EVENING WITH A LIGHT
NW FLOW IN ITS WAKE. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT...BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL LOW WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY UP THE COAST
AND IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS LOW HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AS IT INTERACTS
WITH A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NORTHWARD UP THE COAST.
ELEVATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY EVENING.

RAIN TAPPERS OFF TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

VFR UNTIL 12-14Z...THEN MVFR. CHC TEMPO IFR CIGS FROM APPROX
14-16Z...BUT CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS. -SHRA ALSO MIGHT NOT OCCUR FROM APPROX 13Z-
19Z...WITH POSSIBLE -SHRA DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST THRU THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS THIS AFTN. KJFK COULD BE CLOSER TO AVERAGING
190-180 MAG THIS AFTN AND COULD OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SFC WND NW 10-15KT INCREASING WITH G25-30KT LATE AFTN.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10-15 IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH A STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW.
A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI...AND
20 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS WERE CAPPED ON THE OCEAN AT 4 FT AS
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE IN THE S FLOW AT THE
OCEAN SFC, NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD SCA EVENT TO GO
WITH ONE AT THIS POINT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SEAS
BUILD TO SCA CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS A COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THE
COAST...WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SE-S WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KT. SEAS REMAIN ABOVE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING SEAS TO FALL BACK TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES POSSIBLY BELOW 30
PERCENT AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT MIGHT PRODUCE
GUSTY N/NW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...COULD INCREASE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AT THIS TIME IS BETWEEN 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 170601
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
201 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...AND THEN PASSES
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL LOW WILL
THEN IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. AGAIN...JUST SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS
LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW BOTH
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF SHORT
WAVE TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WARM ADVECTION
PRECEDING THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING
WITH RAIN LIKELY BREAKING OUT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FROM WEST TO
EAST.

THE 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH DEVELOP A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED RAIN AXIS
WITH A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH. THE DIFFERENCE ARISES IN
PLACEMENT WITH THE NAM ACROSS NYC METRO/LI...AND THE GFS FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE 12Z ECMWF GENERATES A MORE
UNIFORM...LIGHTER RAINFALL EVENT. PREFERENCE IS TOWARD THE LATTER
DUE TO WEAK LIFT AND INSTABILITY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S
NYC METRO. THIS IS ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
RAIN ENDS BY EARLY FRI AFT FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS NRN NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN
THE AFT DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY AND DAYTIME HEATING.
GENERALLY LOOKING FOR A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FOR THE EVENT. HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFT AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

SFC FRONT OR WEAK TROF MOVES THROUGH IN THE EVENING WITH A LIGHT
NW FLOW IN ITS WAKE. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT...BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL LOW WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY UP THE COAST
AND IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS LOW HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AS IT INTERACTS
WITH A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NORTHWARD UP THE COAST.
ELEVATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY EVENING.

RAIN TAPPERS OFF TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

VFR UNTIL 12-14Z...THEN MVFR. CHC TEMPO IFR CIGS FROM APPROX
14-16Z...BUT CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS. -SHRA ALSO MIGHT NOT OCCUR FROM APPROX 13Z-
19Z...WITH POSSIBLE -SHRA DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST THRU THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS THIS AFTN. KJFK COULD BE CLOSER TO AVERAGING
190-180 MAG THIS AFTN AND COULD OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SFC WND NW 10-15KT INCREASING WITH G25-30KT LATE AFTN.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10-15 IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH A STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW.
A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI...AND
20 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS WERE CAPPED ON THE OCEAN AT 4 FT AS
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE IN THE S FLOW AT THE
OCEAN SFC, NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD SCA EVENT TO GO
WITH ONE AT THIS POINT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SEAS
BUILD TO SCA CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS A COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THE
COAST...WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SE-S WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KT. SEAS REMAIN ABOVE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING SEAS TO FALL BACK TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES POSSIBLY BELOW 30
PERCENT AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT MIGHT PRODUCE
GUSTY N/NW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...COULD INCREASE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AT THIS TIME IS BETWEEN 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 170601
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
201 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...AND THEN PASSES
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL LOW WILL
THEN IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. AGAIN...JUST SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS
LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW BOTH
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF SHORT
WAVE TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WARM ADVECTION
PRECEDING THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING
WITH RAIN LIKELY BREAKING OUT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FROM WEST TO
EAST.

THE 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH DEVELOP A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED RAIN AXIS
WITH A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH. THE DIFFERENCE ARISES IN
PLACEMENT WITH THE NAM ACROSS NYC METRO/LI...AND THE GFS FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE 12Z ECMWF GENERATES A MORE
UNIFORM...LIGHTER RAINFALL EVENT. PREFERENCE IS TOWARD THE LATTER
DUE TO WEAK LIFT AND INSTABILITY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S
NYC METRO. THIS IS ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
RAIN ENDS BY EARLY FRI AFT FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS NRN NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN
THE AFT DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY AND DAYTIME HEATING.
GENERALLY LOOKING FOR A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FOR THE EVENT. HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFT AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

SFC FRONT OR WEAK TROF MOVES THROUGH IN THE EVENING WITH A LIGHT
NW FLOW IN ITS WAKE. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT...BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL LOW WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY UP THE COAST
AND IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS LOW HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AS IT INTERACTS
WITH A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NORTHWARD UP THE COAST.
ELEVATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY EVENING.

RAIN TAPPERS OFF TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

VFR UNTIL 12-14Z...THEN MVFR. CHC TEMPO IFR CIGS FROM APPROX
14-16Z...BUT CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS. -SHRA ALSO MIGHT NOT OCCUR FROM APPROX 13Z-
19Z...WITH POSSIBLE -SHRA DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST THRU THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS THIS AFTN. KJFK COULD BE CLOSER TO AVERAGING
190-180 MAG THIS AFTN AND COULD OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SFC WND NW 10-15KT INCREASING WITH G25-30KT LATE AFTN.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10-15 IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH A STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW.
A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI...AND
20 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS WERE CAPPED ON THE OCEAN AT 4 FT AS
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE IN THE S FLOW AT THE
OCEAN SFC, NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD SCA EVENT TO GO
WITH ONE AT THIS POINT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SEAS
BUILD TO SCA CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS A COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THE
COAST...WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SE-S WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KT. SEAS REMAIN ABOVE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING SEAS TO FALL BACK TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES POSSIBLY BELOW 30
PERCENT AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT MIGHT PRODUCE
GUSTY N/NW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...COULD INCREASE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AT THIS TIME IS BETWEEN 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS61 KOKX 170248
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1048 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...AND THEN PASSES
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL LOW WILL
THEN IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. AGAIN...JUST SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS
LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW BOTH
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF SHORT
WAVE TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WARM ADVECTION
PRECEDING THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING
WITH RAIN LIKELY BREAKING OUT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FROM WEST TO
EAST.

THE 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH DEVELOP A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED RAIN AXIS
WITH A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH. THE DIFFERENCE ARISES IN
PLACEMENT WITH THE NAM ACROSS NYC METRO/LI...AND THE GFS FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE 12Z ECMWF GENERATES A MORE
UNIFORM...LIGHTER RAINFALL EVENT. PREFERENCE IS TOWARD THE LATTER
DUE TO WEAK LIFT AND INSTABILITY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S
NYC METRO. THIS IS ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN ENDS BY EARLY FRI AFT FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS NRN NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN
THE AFT DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY AND DAYTIME HEATING.
GENERALLY LOOKING FOR A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FOR THE EVENT. HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFT AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

SFC FRONT OR WEAK TROF MOVES THROUGH IN THE EVENING WITH A LIGHT
NW FLOW IN ITS WAKE. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT...BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL LOW WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY UP THE COAST
AND IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS LOW HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AS IT INTERACTS
WITH A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NORTHWARD UP THE COAST.
ELEVATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY EVENING.

RAIN TAPPERS OFF TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA TNGT. A FRONT PASSES ON
FRI.

VFR THIS EVE...THEN MVFR WITH -RA THIS MRNG INTO THE AFTN. POCKETS
OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE 13-19Z PERIOD. THE RAIN ENDS FROM W TO
E IN THE AFTN WITH VFR DEVELOPING GENERALLY AFT 20Z.

MAINLY S FLOW OVERNIGHT BECOMES SW ON FRI. WINDS SHIFT TO THE W
IN THE AFTN THEN NW OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SFC WND NW 10-15KT INCREASING WITH G25-30KT LATE AFTN.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 1-15 IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH A STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW.
A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI...AND
20 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS WERE CAPPED ON THE OCEAN AT 4 FT AS
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE IN THE S FLOW AT THE
OCEAN SFC, NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD SCA EVENT TO GO
WITH ONE AT THIS POINT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SEAS
BUILD TO SCA CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS A COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THE
COAST...WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SE-S WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KT. SEAS REMAIN ABOVE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING SEAS TO FALL BACK TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES POSSIBLY BELOW 30
PERCENT AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT MIGHT PRODUCE
GUSTY N/NW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...COULD INCREASE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AT THIS TIME IS BETWEEN 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC/TONGUE
MARINE...FIG/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...FIG/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 170248
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1048 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...AND THEN PASSES
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL LOW WILL
THEN IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. AGAIN...JUST SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS
LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW BOTH
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF SHORT
WAVE TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WARM ADVECTION
PRECEDING THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING
WITH RAIN LIKELY BREAKING OUT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FROM WEST TO
EAST.

THE 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH DEVELOP A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED RAIN AXIS
WITH A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH. THE DIFFERENCE ARISES IN
PLACEMENT WITH THE NAM ACROSS NYC METRO/LI...AND THE GFS FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE 12Z ECMWF GENERATES A MORE
UNIFORM...LIGHTER RAINFALL EVENT. PREFERENCE IS TOWARD THE LATTER
DUE TO WEAK LIFT AND INSTABILITY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S
NYC METRO. THIS IS ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN ENDS BY EARLY FRI AFT FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS NRN NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN
THE AFT DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY AND DAYTIME HEATING.
GENERALLY LOOKING FOR A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FOR THE EVENT. HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFT AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

SFC FRONT OR WEAK TROF MOVES THROUGH IN THE EVENING WITH A LIGHT
NW FLOW IN ITS WAKE. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT...BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL LOW WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY UP THE COAST
AND IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS LOW HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AS IT INTERACTS
WITH A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NORTHWARD UP THE COAST.
ELEVATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY EVENING.

RAIN TAPPERS OFF TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA TNGT. A FRONT PASSES ON
FRI.

VFR THIS EVE...THEN MVFR WITH -RA THIS MRNG INTO THE AFTN. POCKETS
OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE 13-19Z PERIOD. THE RAIN ENDS FROM W TO
E IN THE AFTN WITH VFR DEVELOPING GENERALLY AFT 20Z.

MAINLY S FLOW OVERNIGHT BECOMES SW ON FRI. WINDS SHIFT TO THE W
IN THE AFTN THEN NW OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SFC WND NW 10-15KT INCREASING WITH G25-30KT LATE AFTN.
.SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 1-15 IN THE AFTN.
.MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G35KT IN AFTN.
.TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH A STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW.
A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI...AND
20 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS WERE CAPPED ON THE OCEAN AT 4 FT AS
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE IN THE S FLOW AT THE
OCEAN SFC, NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD SCA EVENT TO GO
WITH ONE AT THIS POINT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SEAS
BUILD TO SCA CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS A COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THE
COAST...WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SE-S WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KT. SEAS REMAIN ABOVE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING SEAS TO FALL BACK TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES POSSIBLY BELOW 30
PERCENT AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT MIGHT PRODUCE
GUSTY N/NW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...COULD INCREASE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AT THIS TIME IS BETWEEN 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC/TONGUE
MARINE...FIG/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...FIG/DW




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