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000
FXUS61 KOKX 060639
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
239 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
START TO BUILD BACK IN FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE...SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED
UP WITH TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE CLOUDS ARE
MOSTLY CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST SO THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.

HI PRES WILL BRING LGT WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
TNGT...ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE. A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE SPRAWLING HI SETS UP OFFSHORE THRU THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW. DEWPOINTS WILL RESPOND BY RISING TO NEAR 70
BY TUE MRNG. ALTHOUGH SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING
THE DAY...SUBSIDENCE AND AN INCREASINGLY STABLE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD SERVE TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. LEFT THE FCST DRY AS A RESULT.
INCREASING THETA-E MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM MON NGT
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. LIFT SUPPLIED BY A RELATIVELY
WEAK 25-30KT LLJ. FOG POSSIBLE WITH THE RISING
HUMIDITY...ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING MID LVL MOISTURE MAY LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT MAINTAINED ONLY PATCHY FOR NOW. TEMPS A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT MON AT THE
ATLC BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INVOF THE WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. BETTER CHANCES
WILL BE GENERALLY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. MAV/NAM MOS FOR HIGH
TEMPS WERE SIMILAR AND A BLEND WAS USED...BUT THEY STILL MIGHT BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO LOW...ESPECIALLY IF FEWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZE
THAN FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PROBABLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH
END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT AS NAM AND CMC IMPLY CHC COVERAGE AT
BEST...BUT WILL AT LEAST GO WITH SCT WORDING. POPS FOR THIS PERIOD
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD NAM AND CMC COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WETTER GFS AND ECMWF.  ENOUGH CAPE IS
PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE A
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT COULD LEAD
TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE NOW THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
CWA ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
TRAVELS WEST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE TO OUR SOUTH
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT IT`S TRENDING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING.
WILL STILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS TIMING AND TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY CHANCE THAT THE
STALLED BOUNDARY ENDS UP FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. BUT
RIGHT NOW THURSDAY WOULD SHAPE UP TO BE A DRY DAY. WILL THEN
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NOW. THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER FORECAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY.

VFR. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES.

WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE INLAND. SE-S SEA BREEZES 8-10 KT DEVELOP AT THE
TERMINALS MONDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL BUT KSWF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE MON NIGHT...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE LATE VIA LOW CLOUDS...
PATCHY FOG AND SCT SHOWERS.
.TUE...CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS...ESPECIALLY FROM
NYC METRO NORTH/WEST.
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY IN FOG.
.WED...CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.THU-FRI...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST TONIGHT FOR SEAS AND WINDS REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE AREA
WATERS.

HI PRES WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU MON NGT. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY. THIS COULD TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING CRITERIA
THRESHOLDS HOWEVER ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN WITH THE FRONT SETTLING NEARBY THURSDAY...WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING MID WEEK.
TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE
GREATER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JMC/JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JC





000
FXUS61 KOKX 060237
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1037 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
START TO BUILD BACK IN FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE...SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED
UP WITH TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE CLOUDS ARE
MOSTLY CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST SO THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.

HI PRES WILL BRING LGT WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
TNGT...ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE. A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SPRAWLING HI SETS UP OFFSHORE THRU THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW. DEWPOINTS WILL RESPOND BY RISING TO NEAR 70
BY TUE MRNG. ALTHOUGH SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING
THE DAY...SUBSIDENCE AND AN INCREASINGLY STABLE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD SERVE TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. LEFT THE FCST DRY AS A RESULT.
INCREASING THETAE MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHWR OR TSTM MON NGT
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. LIFT SUPPLIED BY A RELATIVELY
WEAK 25-30KT LLJET. FOG POSSIBLE WITH THE RISING
HUMIDITY...ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING MID LVL MOISTURE MAY LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT MAINTAINED ONLY PATCHY FOR NOW. TEMPS A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT MON AT THE
ATLC BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INVOF THE WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. BETTER CHANCES
WILL BE GENERALLY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. MAV/NAM MOS FOR HIGH
TEMPS WERE SIMILAR AND A BLEND WAS USED...BUT THEY STILL MIGHT BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO LOW...ESPECIALLY IF FEWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZE
THAN FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PROBABLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH
END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT AS NAM AND CMC IMPLY CHC COVERAGE AT
BEST...BUT WILL AT LEAST GO WITH SCT WORDING. POPS FOR THIS PERIOD
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD NAM AND CMC COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WETTER GFS AND ECMWF.  ENOUGH CAPE IS
PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE A
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT COULD LEAD
TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE NOW THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
CWA ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
TRAVELS WEST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE TO OUR SOUTH
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT IT`S TRENDING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING.
WILL STILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS TIMING AND TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY CHANCE THAT THE
STALLED BOUNDARY ENDS UP FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. BUT
RIGHT NOW THURSDAY WOULD SHAPE UP TO BE A DRY DAY. WILL THEN
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NOW. THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER FORECAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY.

VFR. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ISOLATED AREAS.

WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE INLAND. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSWF.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY IN FOG STRATUS.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY IN FOG.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW WINDS.
.THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW
BECOMING NE.
.FRI...MAINLY VFR. A CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST TONIGHT FOR SEAS AND WINDS REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE AREA
WATERS.

HI PRES WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU MON NGT. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY. THIS COULD TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING CRITERIA
THRESHOLDS HOWEVER ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN WITH THE FRONT SETTLING NEARBY THURSDAY...WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING MID WEEK.
TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE
GREATER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JC





000
FXUS61 KOKX 060237
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1037 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
START TO BUILD BACK IN FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE...SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED
UP WITH TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE CLOUDS ARE
MOSTLY CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST SO THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.

HI PRES WILL BRING LGT WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
TNGT...ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE. A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SPRAWLING HI SETS UP OFFSHORE THRU THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW. DEWPOINTS WILL RESPOND BY RISING TO NEAR 70
BY TUE MRNG. ALTHOUGH SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING
THE DAY...SUBSIDENCE AND AN INCREASINGLY STABLE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD SERVE TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. LEFT THE FCST DRY AS A RESULT.
INCREASING THETAE MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHWR OR TSTM MON NGT
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. LIFT SUPPLIED BY A RELATIVELY
WEAK 25-30KT LLJET. FOG POSSIBLE WITH THE RISING
HUMIDITY...ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING MID LVL MOISTURE MAY LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT MAINTAINED ONLY PATCHY FOR NOW. TEMPS A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT MON AT THE
ATLC BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INVOF THE WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. BETTER CHANCES
WILL BE GENERALLY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. MAV/NAM MOS FOR HIGH
TEMPS WERE SIMILAR AND A BLEND WAS USED...BUT THEY STILL MIGHT BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO LOW...ESPECIALLY IF FEWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZE
THAN FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PROBABLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH
END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT AS NAM AND CMC IMPLY CHC COVERAGE AT
BEST...BUT WILL AT LEAST GO WITH SCT WORDING. POPS FOR THIS PERIOD
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD NAM AND CMC COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WETTER GFS AND ECMWF.  ENOUGH CAPE IS
PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE A
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT COULD LEAD
TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE NOW THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
CWA ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
TRAVELS WEST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE TO OUR SOUTH
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT IT`S TRENDING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING.
WILL STILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS TIMING AND TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY CHANCE THAT THE
STALLED BOUNDARY ENDS UP FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. BUT
RIGHT NOW THURSDAY WOULD SHAPE UP TO BE A DRY DAY. WILL THEN
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NOW. THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER FORECAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY.

VFR. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ISOLATED AREAS.

WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE INLAND. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSWF.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY IN FOG STRATUS.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY IN FOG.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW WINDS.
.THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW
BECOMING NE.
.FRI...MAINLY VFR. A CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST TONIGHT FOR SEAS AND WINDS REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE AREA
WATERS.

HI PRES WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU MON NGT. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY. THIS COULD TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING CRITERIA
THRESHOLDS HOWEVER ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN WITH THE FRONT SETTLING NEARBY THURSDAY...WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING MID WEEK.
TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE
GREATER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 060138
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
938 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
START TO BUILD BACK IN FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE...SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED
UP WITH TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE CLOUDS ARE
MOSTLY CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST SO THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.

HI PRES WILL BRING LGT WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
TNGT...ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE. A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SPRAWLING HI SETS UP OFFSHORE THRU THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW. DEWPOINTS WILL RESPOND BY RISING TO NEAR 70
BY TUE MRNG. ALTHOUGH SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING
THE DAY...SUBSIDENCE AND AN INCREASINGLY STABLE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD SERVE TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. LEFT THE FCST DRY AS A RESULT.
INCREASING THETAE MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHWR OR TSTM MON NGT
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. LIFT SUPPLIED BY A RELATIVELY
WEAK 25-30KT LLJET. FOG POSSIBLE WITH THE RISING
HUMIDITY...ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING MID LVL MOISTURE MAY LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT MAINTAINED ONLY PATCHY FOR NOW. TEMPS A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT MON AT THE
ATLC BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INVOF THE WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. BETTER CHANCES
WILL BE GENERALLY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. MAV/NAM MOS FOR HIGH
TEMPS WERE SIMILAR AND A BLEND WAS USED...BUT THEY STILL MIGHT BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO LOW...ESPECIALLY IF FEWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZE
THAN FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PROBABLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH
END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT AS NAM AND CMC IMPLY CHC COVERAGE AT
BEST...BUT WILL AT LEAST GO WITH SCT WORDING. POPS FOR THIS PERIOD
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD NAM AND CMC COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WETTER GFS AND ECMWF.  ENOUGH CAPE IS
PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE A
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT COULD LEAD
TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE NOW THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
CWA ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
TRAVELS WEST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE TO OUR SOUTH
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT IT`S TRENDING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING.
WILL STILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS TIMING AND TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY CHANCE THAT THE
STALLED BOUNDARY ENDS UP FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. BUT
RIGHT NOW THURSDAY WOULD SHAPE UP TO BE A DRY DAY. WILL THEN
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NOW. THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER FORECAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING DRIFTS OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MONDAY.

VFR. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KHPN...KGON...AND KSWF. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

WIND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSWF.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY IN FOG STRATUS.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY IN FOG.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW WINDS.
.THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW
BECOMING NE.
.FRI...MAINLY VFR. A CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST TONIGHT FOR SEAS AND WINDS REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE AREA
WATERS.

HI PRES WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU MON NGT. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY. THIS COULD TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING CRITERIA
THRESHOLDS HOWEVER ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN WITH THE FRONT SETTLING NEARBY THURSDAY...WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING MID WEEK.
TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE
GREATER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 060138
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
938 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
START TO BUILD BACK IN FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE...SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED
UP WITH TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE CLOUDS ARE
MOSTLY CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST SO THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.

HI PRES WILL BRING LGT WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
TNGT...ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE. A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SPRAWLING HI SETS UP OFFSHORE THRU THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW. DEWPOINTS WILL RESPOND BY RISING TO NEAR 70
BY TUE MRNG. ALTHOUGH SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING
THE DAY...SUBSIDENCE AND AN INCREASINGLY STABLE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD SERVE TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. LEFT THE FCST DRY AS A RESULT.
INCREASING THETAE MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHWR OR TSTM MON NGT
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. LIFT SUPPLIED BY A RELATIVELY
WEAK 25-30KT LLJET. FOG POSSIBLE WITH THE RISING
HUMIDITY...ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING MID LVL MOISTURE MAY LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT MAINTAINED ONLY PATCHY FOR NOW. TEMPS A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT MON AT THE
ATLC BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INVOF THE WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. BETTER CHANCES
WILL BE GENERALLY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. MAV/NAM MOS FOR HIGH
TEMPS WERE SIMILAR AND A BLEND WAS USED...BUT THEY STILL MIGHT BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO LOW...ESPECIALLY IF FEWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZE
THAN FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PROBABLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH
END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT AS NAM AND CMC IMPLY CHC COVERAGE AT
BEST...BUT WILL AT LEAST GO WITH SCT WORDING. POPS FOR THIS PERIOD
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD NAM AND CMC COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WETTER GFS AND ECMWF.  ENOUGH CAPE IS
PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE A
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT COULD LEAD
TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE NOW THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
CWA ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
TRAVELS WEST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE TO OUR SOUTH
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT IT`S TRENDING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING.
WILL STILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS TIMING AND TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY CHANCE THAT THE
STALLED BOUNDARY ENDS UP FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. BUT
RIGHT NOW THURSDAY WOULD SHAPE UP TO BE A DRY DAY. WILL THEN
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NOW. THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER FORECAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING DRIFTS OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MONDAY.

VFR. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KHPN...KGON...AND KSWF. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

WIND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSWF.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY IN FOG STRATUS.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY IN FOG.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW WINDS.
.THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW
BECOMING NE.
.FRI...MAINLY VFR. A CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST TONIGHT FOR SEAS AND WINDS REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE AREA
WATERS.

HI PRES WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU MON NGT. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY. THIS COULD TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING CRITERIA
THRESHOLDS HOWEVER ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN WITH THE FRONT SETTLING NEARBY THURSDAY...WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING MID WEEK.
TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE
GREATER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JC





000
FXUS61 KOKX 060138
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
938 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
START TO BUILD BACK IN FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE...SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED
UP WITH TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE CLOUDS ARE
MOSTLY CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST SO THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.

HI PRES WILL BRING LGT WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
TNGT...ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE. A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SPRAWLING HI SETS UP OFFSHORE THRU THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW. DEWPOINTS WILL RESPOND BY RISING TO NEAR 70
BY TUE MRNG. ALTHOUGH SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING
THE DAY...SUBSIDENCE AND AN INCREASINGLY STABLE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD SERVE TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. LEFT THE FCST DRY AS A RESULT.
INCREASING THETAE MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHWR OR TSTM MON NGT
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. LIFT SUPPLIED BY A RELATIVELY
WEAK 25-30KT LLJET. FOG POSSIBLE WITH THE RISING
HUMIDITY...ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING MID LVL MOISTURE MAY LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT MAINTAINED ONLY PATCHY FOR NOW. TEMPS A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT MON AT THE
ATLC BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INVOF THE WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. BETTER CHANCES
WILL BE GENERALLY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. MAV/NAM MOS FOR HIGH
TEMPS WERE SIMILAR AND A BLEND WAS USED...BUT THEY STILL MIGHT BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO LOW...ESPECIALLY IF FEWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZE
THAN FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PROBABLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH
END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT AS NAM AND CMC IMPLY CHC COVERAGE AT
BEST...BUT WILL AT LEAST GO WITH SCT WORDING. POPS FOR THIS PERIOD
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD NAM AND CMC COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WETTER GFS AND ECMWF.  ENOUGH CAPE IS
PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE A
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT COULD LEAD
TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE NOW THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
CWA ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
TRAVELS WEST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE TO OUR SOUTH
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT IT`S TRENDING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING.
WILL STILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS TIMING AND TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY CHANCE THAT THE
STALLED BOUNDARY ENDS UP FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. BUT
RIGHT NOW THURSDAY WOULD SHAPE UP TO BE A DRY DAY. WILL THEN
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NOW. THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER FORECAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING DRIFTS OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MONDAY.

VFR. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KHPN...KGON...AND KSWF. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

WIND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSWF.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY IN FOG STRATUS.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY IN FOG.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW WINDS.
.THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW
BECOMING NE.
.FRI...MAINLY VFR. A CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST TONIGHT FOR SEAS AND WINDS REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE AREA
WATERS.

HI PRES WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU MON NGT. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY. THIS COULD TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING CRITERIA
THRESHOLDS HOWEVER ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN WITH THE FRONT SETTLING NEARBY THURSDAY...WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING MID WEEK.
TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE
GREATER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JC





000
FXUS61 KOKX 052323
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
723 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
START TO BUILD BACK IN FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE...MAINLY TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

HI PRES WILL BRING LGT WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
TNGT...ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE. SUBSIDENCE
AND SUNSET WILL ALLOW FOR THE CU TO DISSIPATE. STLT INDICATES THAT
THE RESIDUAL CIRRUS IS ALSO DISSIPATING...SO THE FCST FOR TNGT IS
MAINLY CLR. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SPRAWLING HI SETS UP OFFSHORE THRU THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW. DEWPOINTS WILL RESPOND BY RISING TO NEAR 70
BY TUE MRNG. ALTHOUGH SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING
THE DAY...SUBSIDENCE AND AN INCREASINGLY STABLE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD SERVE TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. LEFT THE FCST DRY AS A RESULT.
INCREASING THETAE MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHWR OR TSTM MON NGT
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. LIFT SUPPLIED BY A RELATIVELY
WEAK 25-30KT LLJET. FOG POSSIBLE WITH THE RISING
HUMIDITY...ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING MID LVL MOISTURE MAY LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT MAINTAINED ONLY PATCHY FOR NOW. TEMPS A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT MON AT THE
ATLC BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INVOF THE WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. BETTER CHANCES
WILL BE GENERALLY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. MAV/NAM MOS FOR HIGH
TEMPS WERE SIMILAR AND A BLEND WAS USED...BUT THEY STILL MIGHT BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO LOW...ESPECIALLY IF FEWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZE
THAN FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PROBABLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH
END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT AS NAM AND CMC IMPLY CHC COVERAGE AT
BEST...BUT WILL AT LEAST GO WITH SCT WORDING. POPS FOR THIS PERIOD
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD NAM AND CMC COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WETTER GFS AND ECMWF.  ENOUGH CAPE IS
PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE A
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT COULD LEAD
TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE NOW THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
CWA ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
TRAVELS WEST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE TO OUR SOUTH
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT IT`S TRENDING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING.
WILL STILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS TIMING AND TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY CHANCE THAT THE
STALLED BOUNDARY ENDS UP FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. BUT
RIGHT NOW THURSDAY WOULD SHAPE UP TO BE A DRY DAY. WILL THEN
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NOW. THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER FORECAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING DRIFTS OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MONDAY.

VFR. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KHPN...KGON...AND KSWF. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

WIND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSWF.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY IN FOG STRATUS.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY IN FOG.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW WINDS.
.THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW
BECOMING NE.
.FRI...MAINLY VFR. A CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU MON NGT. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY. THIS COULD TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING CRITERIA
THRESHOLDS HOWEVER ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN WITH THE FRONT SETTLING NEARBY THURSDAY...WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING MID WEEK.
TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE
GREATER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 052323
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
723 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
START TO BUILD BACK IN FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE...MAINLY TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

HI PRES WILL BRING LGT WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
TNGT...ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE. SUBSIDENCE
AND SUNSET WILL ALLOW FOR THE CU TO DISSIPATE. STLT INDICATES THAT
THE RESIDUAL CIRRUS IS ALSO DISSIPATING...SO THE FCST FOR TNGT IS
MAINLY CLR. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SPRAWLING HI SETS UP OFFSHORE THRU THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW. DEWPOINTS WILL RESPOND BY RISING TO NEAR 70
BY TUE MRNG. ALTHOUGH SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING
THE DAY...SUBSIDENCE AND AN INCREASINGLY STABLE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD SERVE TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. LEFT THE FCST DRY AS A RESULT.
INCREASING THETAE MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHWR OR TSTM MON NGT
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. LIFT SUPPLIED BY A RELATIVELY
WEAK 25-30KT LLJET. FOG POSSIBLE WITH THE RISING
HUMIDITY...ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING MID LVL MOISTURE MAY LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT MAINTAINED ONLY PATCHY FOR NOW. TEMPS A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT MON AT THE
ATLC BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INVOF THE WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. BETTER CHANCES
WILL BE GENERALLY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. MAV/NAM MOS FOR HIGH
TEMPS WERE SIMILAR AND A BLEND WAS USED...BUT THEY STILL MIGHT BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO LOW...ESPECIALLY IF FEWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZE
THAN FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PROBABLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH
END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT AS NAM AND CMC IMPLY CHC COVERAGE AT
BEST...BUT WILL AT LEAST GO WITH SCT WORDING. POPS FOR THIS PERIOD
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD NAM AND CMC COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WETTER GFS AND ECMWF.  ENOUGH CAPE IS
PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE A
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT COULD LEAD
TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE NOW THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
CWA ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
TRAVELS WEST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE TO OUR SOUTH
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT IT`S TRENDING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING.
WILL STILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS TIMING AND TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY CHANCE THAT THE
STALLED BOUNDARY ENDS UP FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. BUT
RIGHT NOW THURSDAY WOULD SHAPE UP TO BE A DRY DAY. WILL THEN
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NOW. THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER FORECAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING DRIFTS OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MONDAY.

VFR. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KHPN...KGON...AND KSWF. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

WIND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSWF.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY IN FOG STRATUS.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY IN FOG.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW WINDS.
.THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW
BECOMING NE.
.FRI...MAINLY VFR. A CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU MON NGT. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY. THIS COULD TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING CRITERIA
THRESHOLDS HOWEVER ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN WITH THE FRONT SETTLING NEARBY THURSDAY...WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING MID WEEK.
TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE
GREATER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 052155
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
555 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
START TO BUILD BACK IN FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE...MAINLY TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

HI PRES WILL BRING LGT WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
TNGT...ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE. SUBSIDENCE
AND SUNSET WILL ALLOW FOR THE CU TO DISSIPATE. STLT INDICATES THAT
THE RESIDUAL CIRRUS IS ALSO DISSIPATING...SO THE FCST FOR TNGT IS
MAINLY CLR. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT THRU MON AT
THE ATLC BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SPRAWLING HI SETS UP OFFSHORE THRU THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW. DEWPOINTS WILL RESPOND BY RISING TO NEAR 70
BY TUE MRNG. ALTHOUGH SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING
THE DAY...SUBSIDENCE AND AN INCREASINGLY STABLE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD SERVE TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. LEFT THE FCST DRY AS A RESULT.
INCREASING THETAE MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHWR OR TSTM MON NGT
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. LIFT SUPPLIED BY A RELATIVELY
WEAK 25-30KT LLJET. FOG POSSIBLE WITH THE RISING
HUMIDITY...ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING MID LVL MOISTURE MAY LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT MAINTAINED ONLY PATCHY FOR NOW. TEMPS A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INVOF THE WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. BETTER CHANCES
WILL BE GENERALLY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. MAV/NAM MOS FOR HIGH
TEMPS WERE SIMILAR AND A BLEND WAS USED...BUT THEY STILL MIGHT BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO LOW...ESPECIALLY IF FEWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZE
THAN FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PROBABLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH
END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT AS NAM AND CMC IMPLY CHC COVERAGE AT
BEST...BUT WILL AT LEAST GO WITH SCT WORDING. POPS FOR THIS PERIOD
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD NAM AND CMC COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WETTER GFS AND ECMWF.  ENOUGH CAPE IS
PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE A
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT COULD LEAD
TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE NOW THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
CWA ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
TRAVELS WEST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE TO OUR SOUTH
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT IT`S TRENDING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING.
WILL STILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS TIMING AND TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY CHANCE THAT THE
STALLED BOUNDARY ENDS UP FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. BUT
RIGHT NOW THURSDAY WOULD SHAPE UP TO BE A DRY DAY. WILL THEN
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NOW. THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER FORECAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY EAST
THROUGH MONDAY.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 035-045 CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS WITH
MVFR LIKELY AND IFR/LIFR VSBY POSSIBLE.

POTENTIAL FOR STRATO-CU ACROSS SE PA/S NJ TO DRIFT NE INTO METRO
NJ TERMINALS IN SW FLOW LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS. HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS AT
KHPN/KISP.

SE SEABREEZE IS STRUGGLING TO WORK INTO KEWR/KTEB WITH WESTERLY FLOW
IN WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH TO THE EAST. THINKING THAT IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL 21-22Z TO COME IN. S SEABREEZE SHOULD WORK INTO KLGA AROUND
20Z WITH A STRONGER PUSH FROM THE SOUTH.

WINDS LIGHTEN THIS EVENING. S/SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
MORNING...WITH SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS...EXCEPT KSWF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON AFT/NIGHT...VFR WITH S/SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. MVFR/IFR CONDS
LIKELY IN FOG STRATUS MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY IN FOG.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW WINDS.
.THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW
BECOMING NE.
.FRI...MAINLY VFR. A CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU MON NGT. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY. THIS COULD TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING CRITERIA
THRESHOLDS HOWEVER ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN WITH THE FRONT SETTLING NEARBY THURSDAY...WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING MID WEEK.
TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE
GREATER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/JC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 052155
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
555 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
START TO BUILD BACK IN FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE...MAINLY TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

HI PRES WILL BRING LGT WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
TNGT...ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE. SUBSIDENCE
AND SUNSET WILL ALLOW FOR THE CU TO DISSIPATE. STLT INDICATES THAT
THE RESIDUAL CIRRUS IS ALSO DISSIPATING...SO THE FCST FOR TNGT IS
MAINLY CLR. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT THRU MON AT
THE ATLC BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SPRAWLING HI SETS UP OFFSHORE THRU THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW. DEWPOINTS WILL RESPOND BY RISING TO NEAR 70
BY TUE MRNG. ALTHOUGH SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING
THE DAY...SUBSIDENCE AND AN INCREASINGLY STABLE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD SERVE TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. LEFT THE FCST DRY AS A RESULT.
INCREASING THETAE MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHWR OR TSTM MON NGT
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. LIFT SUPPLIED BY A RELATIVELY
WEAK 25-30KT LLJET. FOG POSSIBLE WITH THE RISING
HUMIDITY...ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING MID LVL MOISTURE MAY LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT MAINTAINED ONLY PATCHY FOR NOW. TEMPS A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INVOF THE WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. BETTER CHANCES
WILL BE GENERALLY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. MAV/NAM MOS FOR HIGH
TEMPS WERE SIMILAR AND A BLEND WAS USED...BUT THEY STILL MIGHT BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO LOW...ESPECIALLY IF FEWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZE
THAN FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PROBABLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH
END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT AS NAM AND CMC IMPLY CHC COVERAGE AT
BEST...BUT WILL AT LEAST GO WITH SCT WORDING. POPS FOR THIS PERIOD
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD NAM AND CMC COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WETTER GFS AND ECMWF.  ENOUGH CAPE IS
PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE A
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT COULD LEAD
TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE NOW THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
CWA ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
TRAVELS WEST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE TO OUR SOUTH
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT IT`S TRENDING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING.
WILL STILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS TIMING AND TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY CHANCE THAT THE
STALLED BOUNDARY ENDS UP FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. BUT
RIGHT NOW THURSDAY WOULD SHAPE UP TO BE A DRY DAY. WILL THEN
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NOW. THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER FORECAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY EAST
THROUGH MONDAY.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 035-045 CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS WITH
MVFR LIKELY AND IFR/LIFR VSBY POSSIBLE.

POTENTIAL FOR STRATO-CU ACROSS SE PA/S NJ TO DRIFT NE INTO METRO
NJ TERMINALS IN SW FLOW LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS. HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS AT
KHPN/KISP.

SE SEABREEZE IS STRUGGLING TO WORK INTO KEWR/KTEB WITH WESTERLY FLOW
IN WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH TO THE EAST. THINKING THAT IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL 21-22Z TO COME IN. S SEABREEZE SHOULD WORK INTO KLGA AROUND
20Z WITH A STRONGER PUSH FROM THE SOUTH.

WINDS LIGHTEN THIS EVENING. S/SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
MORNING...WITH SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS...EXCEPT KSWF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON AFT/NIGHT...VFR WITH S/SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. MVFR/IFR CONDS
LIKELY IN FOG STRATUS MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY IN FOG.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW WINDS.
.THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW
BECOMING NE.
.FRI...MAINLY VFR. A CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU MON NGT. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY. THIS COULD TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING CRITERIA
THRESHOLDS HOWEVER ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN WITH THE FRONT SETTLING NEARBY THURSDAY...WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING MID WEEK.
TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE
GREATER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/JC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JC





000
FXUS61 KOKX 052155
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
555 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
START TO BUILD BACK IN FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE...MAINLY TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

HI PRES WILL BRING LGT WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
TNGT...ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE. SUBSIDENCE
AND SUNSET WILL ALLOW FOR THE CU TO DISSIPATE. STLT INDICATES THAT
THE RESIDUAL CIRRUS IS ALSO DISSIPATING...SO THE FCST FOR TNGT IS
MAINLY CLR. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT THRU MON AT
THE ATLC BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SPRAWLING HI SETS UP OFFSHORE THRU THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW. DEWPOINTS WILL RESPOND BY RISING TO NEAR 70
BY TUE MRNG. ALTHOUGH SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING
THE DAY...SUBSIDENCE AND AN INCREASINGLY STABLE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD SERVE TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. LEFT THE FCST DRY AS A RESULT.
INCREASING THETAE MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHWR OR TSTM MON NGT
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. LIFT SUPPLIED BY A RELATIVELY
WEAK 25-30KT LLJET. FOG POSSIBLE WITH THE RISING
HUMIDITY...ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING MID LVL MOISTURE MAY LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT MAINTAINED ONLY PATCHY FOR NOW. TEMPS A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INVOF THE WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. BETTER CHANCES
WILL BE GENERALLY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. MAV/NAM MOS FOR HIGH
TEMPS WERE SIMILAR AND A BLEND WAS USED...BUT THEY STILL MIGHT BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO LOW...ESPECIALLY IF FEWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZE
THAN FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PROBABLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH
END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT AS NAM AND CMC IMPLY CHC COVERAGE AT
BEST...BUT WILL AT LEAST GO WITH SCT WORDING. POPS FOR THIS PERIOD
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD NAM AND CMC COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WETTER GFS AND ECMWF.  ENOUGH CAPE IS
PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE A
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT COULD LEAD
TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE NOW THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
CWA ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
TRAVELS WEST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE TO OUR SOUTH
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT IT`S TRENDING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING.
WILL STILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS TIMING AND TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY CHANCE THAT THE
STALLED BOUNDARY ENDS UP FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. BUT
RIGHT NOW THURSDAY WOULD SHAPE UP TO BE A DRY DAY. WILL THEN
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NOW. THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER FORECAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY EAST
THROUGH MONDAY.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 035-045 CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS WITH
MVFR LIKELY AND IFR/LIFR VSBY POSSIBLE.

POTENTIAL FOR STRATO-CU ACROSS SE PA/S NJ TO DRIFT NE INTO METRO
NJ TERMINALS IN SW FLOW LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS. HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS AT
KHPN/KISP.

SE SEABREEZE IS STRUGGLING TO WORK INTO KEWR/KTEB WITH WESTERLY FLOW
IN WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH TO THE EAST. THINKING THAT IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL 21-22Z TO COME IN. S SEABREEZE SHOULD WORK INTO KLGA AROUND
20Z WITH A STRONGER PUSH FROM THE SOUTH.

WINDS LIGHTEN THIS EVENING. S/SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
MORNING...WITH SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS...EXCEPT KSWF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON AFT/NIGHT...VFR WITH S/SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. MVFR/IFR CONDS
LIKELY IN FOG STRATUS MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY IN FOG.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW WINDS.
.THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW
BECOMING NE.
.FRI...MAINLY VFR. A CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU MON NGT. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY. THIS COULD TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING CRITERIA
THRESHOLDS HOWEVER ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN WITH THE FRONT SETTLING NEARBY THURSDAY...WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING MID WEEK.
TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE
GREATER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/JC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JC





000
FXUS61 KOKX 052155
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
555 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
START TO BUILD BACK IN FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE...MAINLY TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

HI PRES WILL BRING LGT WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
TNGT...ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE. SUBSIDENCE
AND SUNSET WILL ALLOW FOR THE CU TO DISSIPATE. STLT INDICATES THAT
THE RESIDUAL CIRRUS IS ALSO DISSIPATING...SO THE FCST FOR TNGT IS
MAINLY CLR. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT THRU MON AT
THE ATLC BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SPRAWLING HI SETS UP OFFSHORE THRU THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW. DEWPOINTS WILL RESPOND BY RISING TO NEAR 70
BY TUE MRNG. ALTHOUGH SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING
THE DAY...SUBSIDENCE AND AN INCREASINGLY STABLE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD SERVE TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. LEFT THE FCST DRY AS A RESULT.
INCREASING THETAE MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHWR OR TSTM MON NGT
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. LIFT SUPPLIED BY A RELATIVELY
WEAK 25-30KT LLJET. FOG POSSIBLE WITH THE RISING
HUMIDITY...ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING MID LVL MOISTURE MAY LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT MAINTAINED ONLY PATCHY FOR NOW. TEMPS A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INVOF THE WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. BETTER CHANCES
WILL BE GENERALLY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. MAV/NAM MOS FOR HIGH
TEMPS WERE SIMILAR AND A BLEND WAS USED...BUT THEY STILL MIGHT BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO LOW...ESPECIALLY IF FEWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZE
THAN FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PROBABLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH
END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT AS NAM AND CMC IMPLY CHC COVERAGE AT
BEST...BUT WILL AT LEAST GO WITH SCT WORDING. POPS FOR THIS PERIOD
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD NAM AND CMC COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WETTER GFS AND ECMWF.  ENOUGH CAPE IS
PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE A
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT COULD LEAD
TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE NOW THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
CWA ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
TRAVELS WEST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE TO OUR SOUTH
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT IT`S TRENDING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING.
WILL STILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS TIMING AND TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY CHANCE THAT THE
STALLED BOUNDARY ENDS UP FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. BUT
RIGHT NOW THURSDAY WOULD SHAPE UP TO BE A DRY DAY. WILL THEN
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NOW. THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER FORECAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY EAST
THROUGH MONDAY.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 035-045 CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS WITH
MVFR LIKELY AND IFR/LIFR VSBY POSSIBLE.

POTENTIAL FOR STRATO-CU ACROSS SE PA/S NJ TO DRIFT NE INTO METRO
NJ TERMINALS IN SW FLOW LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS. HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS AT
KHPN/KISP.

SE SEABREEZE IS STRUGGLING TO WORK INTO KEWR/KTEB WITH WESTERLY FLOW
IN WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH TO THE EAST. THINKING THAT IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL 21-22Z TO COME IN. S SEABREEZE SHOULD WORK INTO KLGA AROUND
20Z WITH A STRONGER PUSH FROM THE SOUTH.

WINDS LIGHTEN THIS EVENING. S/SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
MORNING...WITH SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS...EXCEPT KSWF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON AFT/NIGHT...VFR WITH S/SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. MVFR/IFR CONDS
LIKELY IN FOG STRATUS MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY IN FOG.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW WINDS.
.THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW
BECOMING NE.
.FRI...MAINLY VFR. A CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU MON NGT. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY. THIS COULD TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING CRITERIA
THRESHOLDS HOWEVER ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN WITH THE FRONT SETTLING NEARBY THURSDAY...WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING MID WEEK.
TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE
GREATER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/JC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 051932
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
332 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
START TO BUILD BACK IN FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AXIS OF A 1022 HI PRES RIDGE EXTENDED INTO CNTRL PA THIS AFTN.
THIS HI WILL BRING LGT WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TNGT...ALLOWING
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE. SUBSIDENCE AND SUNSET WILL
ALLOW FOR THE CU TO DISSIPATE. STLT INDICATES THAT THE RESIDUAL
CIRRUS IS ALSO DISSIPATING...SO THE FCST FOR TNGT IS MAINLY CLR. A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT THRU MON AT
THE ATLC BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SPRAWLING HI SETS UP OFFSHORE THRU THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW. DEWPOINTS WILL RESPOND BY RISING TO NEAR 70
BY TUE MRNG. ALTHOUGH SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING
THE DAY...SUBSIDENCE AND AN INCREASINGLY STABLE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD SERVE TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. LEFT THE FCST DRY AS A RESULT.
INCREASING THETAE MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHWR OR TSTM MON NGT
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. LIFT SUPPLIED BY A RELATIVELY
WEAK 25-30KT LLJET. FOG POSSIBLE WITH THE RISING
HUMIDITY...ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING MID LVL MOISTURE MAY LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT MAINTAINED ONLY PATCHY FOR NOW. TEMPS A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INVOF THE WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. BETTER CHANCES
WILL BE GENERALLY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. MAV/NAM MOS FOR HIGH
TEMPS WERE SIMILAR AND A BLEND WAS USED...BUT THEY STILL MIGHT BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO LOW...ESPECIALLY IF FEWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZE
THAN FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PROBABLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH
END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT AS NAM AND CMC IMPLY CHC COVERAGE AT
BEST...BUT WILL AT LEAST GO WITH SCT WORDING. POPS FOR THIS PERIOD
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD NAM AND CMC COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WETTER GFS AND ECMWF.  ENOUGH CAPE IS
PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE A
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT COULD LEAD
TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE NOW THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
CWA ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
TRAVELS WEST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE TO OUR SOUTH
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT IT`S TRENDING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING.
WILL STILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS TIMING AND TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY CHANCE THAT THE
STALLED BOUNDARY ENDS UP FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. BUT
RIGHT NOW THURSDAY WOULD SHAPE UP TO BE A DRY DAY. WILL THEN
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NOW. THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER FORECAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY EAST
THROUGH MONDAY.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 035-045 CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS WITH
MVFR LIKELY AND IFR/LIFR VSBY POSSIBLE.

POTENTIAL FOR STRATO-CU ACROSS SE PA/S NJ TO DRIFT NE INTO METRO
NJ TERMINALS IN SW FLOW LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS. HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS AT
KHPN/KISP.

SE SEABREEZE IS STRUGGLING TO WORK INTO KEWR/KTEB WITH WESTERLY FLOW
IN WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH TO THE EAST. THINKING THAT IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL 21-22Z TO COME IN. S SEABREEZE SHOULD WORK INTO KLGA AROUND
20Z WITH A STRONGER PUSH FROM THE SOUTH.

WINDS LIGHTEN THIS EVENING. S/SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
MORNING...WITH SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS...EXCEPT KSWF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON AFT/NIGHT...VFR WITH S/SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. MVFR/IFR CONDS
LIKELY IN FOG STRATUS MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY IN FOG.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW WINDS.
.THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW
BECOMING NE.
.FRI...MAINLY VFR. A CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU MON NGT. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY. THIS COULD TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING CRITERIA
THRESHOLDS HOWEVER ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN WITH THE FRONT SETTLING NEARBY THURSDAY...WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING MID WEEK.
TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE
GREATER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/JC
HYDROLOGY...JC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 051932
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
332 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
START TO BUILD BACK IN FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AXIS OF A 1022 HI PRES RIDGE EXTENDED INTO CNTRL PA THIS AFTN.
THIS HI WILL BRING LGT WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TNGT...ALLOWING
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE. SUBSIDENCE AND SUNSET WILL
ALLOW FOR THE CU TO DISSIPATE. STLT INDICATES THAT THE RESIDUAL
CIRRUS IS ALSO DISSIPATING...SO THE FCST FOR TNGT IS MAINLY CLR. A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT THRU MON AT
THE ATLC BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SPRAWLING HI SETS UP OFFSHORE THRU THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW. DEWPOINTS WILL RESPOND BY RISING TO NEAR 70
BY TUE MRNG. ALTHOUGH SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING
THE DAY...SUBSIDENCE AND AN INCREASINGLY STABLE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD SERVE TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. LEFT THE FCST DRY AS A RESULT.
INCREASING THETAE MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHWR OR TSTM MON NGT
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. LIFT SUPPLIED BY A RELATIVELY
WEAK 25-30KT LLJET. FOG POSSIBLE WITH THE RISING
HUMIDITY...ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING MID LVL MOISTURE MAY LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT MAINTAINED ONLY PATCHY FOR NOW. TEMPS A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INVOF THE WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. BETTER CHANCES
WILL BE GENERALLY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. MAV/NAM MOS FOR HIGH
TEMPS WERE SIMILAR AND A BLEND WAS USED...BUT THEY STILL MIGHT BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO LOW...ESPECIALLY IF FEWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZE
THAN FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PROBABLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH
END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT AS NAM AND CMC IMPLY CHC COVERAGE AT
BEST...BUT WILL AT LEAST GO WITH SCT WORDING. POPS FOR THIS PERIOD
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD NAM AND CMC COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WETTER GFS AND ECMWF.  ENOUGH CAPE IS
PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE A
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT COULD LEAD
TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE NOW THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
CWA ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
TRAVELS WEST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE TO OUR SOUTH
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT IT`S TRENDING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING.
WILL STILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS TIMING AND TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY CHANCE THAT THE
STALLED BOUNDARY ENDS UP FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. BUT
RIGHT NOW THURSDAY WOULD SHAPE UP TO BE A DRY DAY. WILL THEN
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NOW. THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER FORECAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY EAST
THROUGH MONDAY.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 035-045 CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS WITH
MVFR LIKELY AND IFR/LIFR VSBY POSSIBLE.

POTENTIAL FOR STRATO-CU ACROSS SE PA/S NJ TO DRIFT NE INTO METRO
NJ TERMINALS IN SW FLOW LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS. HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS AT
KHPN/KISP.

SE SEABREEZE IS STRUGGLING TO WORK INTO KEWR/KTEB WITH WESTERLY FLOW
IN WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH TO THE EAST. THINKING THAT IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL 21-22Z TO COME IN. S SEABREEZE SHOULD WORK INTO KLGA AROUND
20Z WITH A STRONGER PUSH FROM THE SOUTH.

WINDS LIGHTEN THIS EVENING. S/SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
MORNING...WITH SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS...EXCEPT KSWF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON AFT/NIGHT...VFR WITH S/SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. MVFR/IFR CONDS
LIKELY IN FOG STRATUS MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY IN FOG.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW WINDS.
.THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW
BECOMING NE.
.FRI...MAINLY VFR. A CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU MON NGT. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY. THIS COULD TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING CRITERIA
THRESHOLDS HOWEVER ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN WITH THE FRONT SETTLING NEARBY THURSDAY...WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING MID WEEK.
TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE
GREATER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/JC
HYDROLOGY...JC





000
FXUS61 KOKX 051739
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
139 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TODAY AND EAST OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL PLAIN WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN ON FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE S SHORE OF LI AS OF NOON. THIS
WILL PUT A CAP ON TEMPS THERE. STILL SOME ROOM FOR TEMPS TO GO UP
ALONG THE CT COAST BUT GRADUALLY WITH MODIFIED SWLY FLOW. MAINLY
SUNNY THIS AFTN WITH SOME CU. CIRRUS BAND ACROSS THE MOST SWRN
PORTION OF THE CWA MAY LINGER THRU THE AFTN.

THERE IS A MODERATE TO BORDERLINE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO 3-4 FT
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS AND DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTS WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NJ...THAT COULD SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO PARTS OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS HINGES ON IDEAL
PLACEMENT OF MESOSCALE AND THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES AS FCST BY THAT
MODEL...INCLUDING A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...TOPPED BY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THAT REGION AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
AND PUSH IT NORTHWARD. THE 06Z GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE SLOWER TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE NORTHWARD...WHICH KEEPS THE JET STREAK AND
SFC THETA-E RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN NJ AND
PHILADELPHIA...WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP AS SFC RIDGING FROM
OFFSHORE WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THERE. SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS WOULD HAVE TO LINE UP PERFECTLY...WILL
NOT MENTION IN FCST...BUT IT IS WORTH MONITORING IN THE LATE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP TO A WEAK TROUGH AS IT GETS CLOSER MON
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO THIS TROUGH...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM FROM SW-
NE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST TUE AFTERNOON VIA DAYTIME
SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY
(PW TIMES 1000-500 MB MEAN RH) TO 1.6 INCHES...AND MBE VECTORS
UNDER 5 KT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ALOFT SO ORGANIZED SVR WX NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME
PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH
CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH CONTINUED
HIGH PW...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS
AGAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT
COULD LEAD TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE
COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOME TIME FRO THU INTO FRI MORNING. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY EAST
THROUGH MONDAY.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 035-045 CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS WITH
MVFR LIKELY AND IFR/LIFR VSBY POSSIBLE.

POTENTIAL FOR STRATO-CU ACROSS SE PA/S NJ TO DRIFT NE INTO METRO
NJ TERMINALS IN SW FLOW LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS. HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS AT
KHPN/KISP.

S/SE SEABREEZE LIKELY FOR KEWR/KTEB BTWN 19 AND 20Z...WITH S
SEABREEZE WORKING INTO KLGA BTWN 18 AND 19Z. WINDS LIGHTEN THIS
EVENING. S/SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING...WITH
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT KSWF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON AFT/NIGHT...VFR WITH S/SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. MVFR/IFR CONDS
LIKELY IN FOG STRATUS MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY IN FOG.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW WINDS.
.THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW
BECOMING NE.
.FRI...MAINLY VFR. A CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THU...BUT
WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY FOG FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. ALSO...POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT FROM THE
DURING MID WEEK. TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS PW INCREASES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN




000
FXUS61 KOKX 051739
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
139 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TODAY AND EAST OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL PLAIN WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN ON FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE S SHORE OF LI AS OF NOON. THIS
WILL PUT A CAP ON TEMPS THERE. STILL SOME ROOM FOR TEMPS TO GO UP
ALONG THE CT COAST BUT GRADUALLY WITH MODIFIED SWLY FLOW. MAINLY
SUNNY THIS AFTN WITH SOME CU. CIRRUS BAND ACROSS THE MOST SWRN
PORTION OF THE CWA MAY LINGER THRU THE AFTN.

THERE IS A MODERATE TO BORDERLINE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO 3-4 FT
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS AND DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTS WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NJ...THAT COULD SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO PARTS OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS HINGES ON IDEAL
PLACEMENT OF MESOSCALE AND THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES AS FCST BY THAT
MODEL...INCLUDING A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...TOPPED BY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THAT REGION AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
AND PUSH IT NORTHWARD. THE 06Z GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE SLOWER TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE NORTHWARD...WHICH KEEPS THE JET STREAK AND
SFC THETA-E RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN NJ AND
PHILADELPHIA...WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP AS SFC RIDGING FROM
OFFSHORE WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THERE. SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS WOULD HAVE TO LINE UP PERFECTLY...WILL
NOT MENTION IN FCST...BUT IT IS WORTH MONITORING IN THE LATE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP TO A WEAK TROUGH AS IT GETS CLOSER MON
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO THIS TROUGH...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM FROM SW-
NE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST TUE AFTERNOON VIA DAYTIME
SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY
(PW TIMES 1000-500 MB MEAN RH) TO 1.6 INCHES...AND MBE VECTORS
UNDER 5 KT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ALOFT SO ORGANIZED SVR WX NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME
PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH
CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH CONTINUED
HIGH PW...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS
AGAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT
COULD LEAD TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE
COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOME TIME FRO THU INTO FRI MORNING. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY EAST
THROUGH MONDAY.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 035-045 CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS WITH
MVFR LIKELY AND IFR/LIFR VSBY POSSIBLE.

POTENTIAL FOR STRATO-CU ACROSS SE PA/S NJ TO DRIFT NE INTO METRO
NJ TERMINALS IN SW FLOW LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS. HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS AT
KHPN/KISP.

S/SE SEABREEZE LIKELY FOR KEWR/KTEB BTWN 19 AND 20Z...WITH S
SEABREEZE WORKING INTO KLGA BTWN 18 AND 19Z. WINDS LIGHTEN THIS
EVENING. S/SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING...WITH
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT KSWF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON AFT/NIGHT...VFR WITH S/SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. MVFR/IFR CONDS
LIKELY IN FOG STRATUS MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY IN FOG.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW WINDS.
.THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW
BECOMING NE.
.FRI...MAINLY VFR. A CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THU...BUT
WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY FOG FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. ALSO...POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT FROM THE
DURING MID WEEK. TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS PW INCREASES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN





000
FXUS61 KOKX 051626
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1226 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TODAY AND EAST OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL PLAIN WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN ON FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE S SHORE OF LI AS OF NOON. THIS
WILL PUT A CAP ON TEMPS THERE. STILL SOME ROOM FOR TEMPS TO GO UP
ALONG THE CT COAST BUT GRADUALLY WITH MODIFIED SWLY FLOW. MAINLY
SUNNY THIS AFTN WITH SOME CU. CIRRUS BAND ACROSS THE MOST SWRN
PORTION OF THE CWA MAY LINGER THRU THE AFTN.

THERE IS A MODERATE TO BORDERLINE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO 3-4 FT
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS AND DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTS WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NJ...THAT COULD SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO PARTS OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS HINGES ON IDEAL
PLACEMENT OF MESOSCALE AND THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES AS FCST BY THAT
MODEL...INCLUDING A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...TOPPED BY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THAT REGION AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
AND PUSH IT NORTHWARD. THE 06Z GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE SLOWER TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE NORTHWARD...WHICH KEEPS THE JET STREAK AND
SFC THETA-E RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN NJ AND
PHILADELPHIA...WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP AS SFC RIDGING FROM
OFFSHORE WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THERE. SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS WOULD HAVE TO LINE UP PERFECTLY...WILL
NOT MENTION IN FCST...BUT IT IS WORTH MONITORING IN THE LATE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP TO A WEAK TROUGH AS IT GETS CLOSER MON
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO THIS TROUGH...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM FROM SW-
NE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST TUE AFTERNOON VIA DAYTIME
SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY
(PW TIMES 1000-500 MB MEAN RH) TO 1.6 INCHES...AND MBE VECTORS
UNDER 5 KT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ALOFT SO ORGANIZED SVR WX NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME
PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH
CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH CONTINUED
HIGH PW...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS
AGAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT
COULD LEAD TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE
COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOME TIME FRO THU INTO FRI MORNING. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY EAST
THROUGH MONDAY.

VFR TODAY WITH FEW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH MVFR LIKELY
AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED LIFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SE SEABREEZE LIKELY FOR KEWR/KTEB AND S SEABREEZE EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHTEN
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SUB VFR IN PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW BECOMING NE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THU...BUT
WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY FOG FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. ALSO...POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT FROM THE
DURING MID WEEK. TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS PW INCREASES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN





000
FXUS61 KOKX 051626
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1226 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TODAY AND EAST OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL PLAIN WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN ON FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE S SHORE OF LI AS OF NOON. THIS
WILL PUT A CAP ON TEMPS THERE. STILL SOME ROOM FOR TEMPS TO GO UP
ALONG THE CT COAST BUT GRADUALLY WITH MODIFIED SWLY FLOW. MAINLY
SUNNY THIS AFTN WITH SOME CU. CIRRUS BAND ACROSS THE MOST SWRN
PORTION OF THE CWA MAY LINGER THRU THE AFTN.

THERE IS A MODERATE TO BORDERLINE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO 3-4 FT
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS AND DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTS WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NJ...THAT COULD SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO PARTS OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS HINGES ON IDEAL
PLACEMENT OF MESOSCALE AND THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES AS FCST BY THAT
MODEL...INCLUDING A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...TOPPED BY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THAT REGION AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
AND PUSH IT NORTHWARD. THE 06Z GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE SLOWER TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE NORTHWARD...WHICH KEEPS THE JET STREAK AND
SFC THETA-E RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN NJ AND
PHILADELPHIA...WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP AS SFC RIDGING FROM
OFFSHORE WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THERE. SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS WOULD HAVE TO LINE UP PERFECTLY...WILL
NOT MENTION IN FCST...BUT IT IS WORTH MONITORING IN THE LATE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP TO A WEAK TROUGH AS IT GETS CLOSER MON
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO THIS TROUGH...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM FROM SW-
NE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST TUE AFTERNOON VIA DAYTIME
SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY
(PW TIMES 1000-500 MB MEAN RH) TO 1.6 INCHES...AND MBE VECTORS
UNDER 5 KT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ALOFT SO ORGANIZED SVR WX NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME
PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH
CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH CONTINUED
HIGH PW...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS
AGAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT
COULD LEAD TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE
COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOME TIME FRO THU INTO FRI MORNING. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY EAST
THROUGH MONDAY.

VFR TODAY WITH FEW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH MVFR LIKELY
AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED LIFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SE SEABREEZE LIKELY FOR KEWR/KTEB AND S SEABREEZE EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHTEN
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SUB VFR IN PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW BECOMING NE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THU...BUT
WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY FOG FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. ALSO...POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT FROM THE
DURING MID WEEK. TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS PW INCREASES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN




000
FXUS61 KOKX 051500
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TODAY AND EAST OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL PLAIN WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN ON FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BAND OF CIRRUS HAS SET UP FROM NERN NJ INTO WRN LI. FCST UPDATED
FOR THIS. ALSO BUMPED UP SEAS ON THE OCEAN. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME FAIR WX CU AND COASTAL SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON VIA WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC
METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP
SOUTH COASTS CLOSER TO 80.

THERE IS A MODERATE TO BORDERLINE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO 3-4 FT
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS AND DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTS WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NJ...THAT COULD SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO PARTS OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS HINGES ON IDEAL
PLACEMENT OF MESOSCALE AND THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES AS FCST BY THAT
MODEL...INCLUDING A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...TOPPED BY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THAT REGION AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
AND PUSH IT NORTHWARD. THE 06Z GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE SLOWER TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE NORTHWARD...WHICH KEEPS THE JET STREAK AND
SFC THETA-E RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN NJ AND
PHILADELPHIA...WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP AS SFC RIDGING FROM
OFFSHORE WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THERE. SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS WOULD HAVE TO LINE UP PERFECTLY...WILL
NOT MENTION IN FCST...BUT IT IS WORTH MONITORING IN THE LATE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP TO A WEAK TROUGH AS IT GETS CLOSER MON
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO THIS TROUGH...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM FROM SW-
NE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST TUE AFTERNOON VIA DAYTIME
SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY
(PW TIMES 1000-500 MB MEAN RH) TO 1.6 INCHES...AND MBE VECTORS
UNDER 5 KT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ALOFT SO ORGANIZED SVR WX NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME
PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH
CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH CONTINUED
HIGH PW...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS
AGAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT
COULD LEAD TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE
COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOME TIME FRO THU INTO FRI MORNING. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY EAST
THROUGH MONDAY.

VFR TODAY WITH FEW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH MVFR LIKELY
AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED LIFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SE SEABREEZE LIKELY FOR KEWR/KTEB AND S SEABREEZE EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHTEN
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SUB VFR IN PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW BECOMING NE.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FT
TODAY. 44017 HAS BEEN STEADY AT AROUND 4.6 FT THIS MRNG. UPDATED
THE FCST TO INDICATE AROUND 4 FT HOWEVER. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE TO DEAL
WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...ALSO POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT FROM THE
DURING MID WEEK. TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS PW INCREASES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN





000
FXUS61 KOKX 051500
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TODAY AND EAST OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL PLAIN WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN ON FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BAND OF CIRRUS HAS SET UP FROM NERN NJ INTO WRN LI. FCST UPDATED
FOR THIS. ALSO BUMPED UP SEAS ON THE OCEAN. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME FAIR WX CU AND COASTAL SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON VIA WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC
METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP
SOUTH COASTS CLOSER TO 80.

THERE IS A MODERATE TO BORDERLINE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO 3-4 FT
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS AND DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTS WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NJ...THAT COULD SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO PARTS OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS HINGES ON IDEAL
PLACEMENT OF MESOSCALE AND THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES AS FCST BY THAT
MODEL...INCLUDING A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...TOPPED BY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THAT REGION AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
AND PUSH IT NORTHWARD. THE 06Z GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE SLOWER TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE NORTHWARD...WHICH KEEPS THE JET STREAK AND
SFC THETA-E RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN NJ AND
PHILADELPHIA...WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP AS SFC RIDGING FROM
OFFSHORE WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THERE. SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS WOULD HAVE TO LINE UP PERFECTLY...WILL
NOT MENTION IN FCST...BUT IT IS WORTH MONITORING IN THE LATE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP TO A WEAK TROUGH AS IT GETS CLOSER MON
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO THIS TROUGH...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM FROM SW-
NE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST TUE AFTERNOON VIA DAYTIME
SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY
(PW TIMES 1000-500 MB MEAN RH) TO 1.6 INCHES...AND MBE VECTORS
UNDER 5 KT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ALOFT SO ORGANIZED SVR WX NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME
PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH
CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH CONTINUED
HIGH PW...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS
AGAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT
COULD LEAD TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE
COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOME TIME FRO THU INTO FRI MORNING. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY EAST
THROUGH MONDAY.

VFR TODAY WITH FEW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH MVFR LIKELY
AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED LIFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SE SEABREEZE LIKELY FOR KEWR/KTEB AND S SEABREEZE EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHTEN
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SUB VFR IN PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW BECOMING NE.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FT
TODAY. 44017 HAS BEEN STEADY AT AROUND 4.6 FT THIS MRNG. UPDATED
THE FCST TO INDICATE AROUND 4 FT HOWEVER. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE TO DEAL
WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...ALSO POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT FROM THE
DURING MID WEEK. TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS PW INCREASES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN




000
FXUS61 KOKX 051343
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
943 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TODAY AND EAST OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL PLAIN WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN ON FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BAND OF CIRRUS HAS SET UP FROM NERN NJ INTO WRN LI. FCST UPDATED
FOR THIS. ALSO BUMPED UP SEAS ON THE OCEAN. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME FAIR WX CU AND COASTAL SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON VIA WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC
METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP
SOUTH COASTS CLOSER TO 80.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTS WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NJ...THAT COULD SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO PARTS OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS HINGES ON IDEAL
PLACEMENT OF MESOSCALE AND THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES AS FCST BY THAT
MODEL...INCLUDING A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...TOPPED BY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THAT REGION AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
AND PUSH IT NORTHWARD. THE 06Z GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE SLOWER TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE NORTHWARD...WHICH KEEPS THE JET STREAK AND
SFC THETA-E RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN NJ AND
PHILADELPHIA...WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP AS SFC RIDGING FROM
OFFSHORE WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THERE. SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS WOULD HAVE TO LINE UP PERFECTLY...WILL
NOT MENTION IN FCST...BUT IT IS WORTH MONITORING IN THE LATE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP TO A WEAK TROUGH AS IT GETS CLOSER MON
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO THIS TROUGH...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM FROM SW-
NE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST TUE AFTERNOON VIA DAYTIME
SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY
(PW TIMES 1000-500 MB MEAN RH) TO 1.6 INCHES...AND MBE VECTORS
UNDER 5 KT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ALOFT SO ORGANIZED SVR WX NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME
PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH
CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH CONTINUED
HIGH PW...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS
AGAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT
COULD LEAD TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE
COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOME TIME FRO THU INTO FRI MORNING. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

ANY LINGERING FOG BURNS OFF QUICKLY. VFR TODAY WITH FEW CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH MVFR LIKELY AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED LIFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

LIGHT W/NW WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES. WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SUB VFR IN PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW BECOMING NE.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FT
TODAY. 44017 HAS BEEN STEADY AT AROUND 4.6 FT THIS MRNG. UPDATED
THE FCST TO INDICATE AROUND 4 FT HOWEVER. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE TO DEAL
WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...ALSO POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT FROM THE
DURING MID WEEK. TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS PW INCREASES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN





000
FXUS61 KOKX 051343
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
943 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TODAY AND EAST OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL PLAIN WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN ON FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BAND OF CIRRUS HAS SET UP FROM NERN NJ INTO WRN LI. FCST UPDATED
FOR THIS. ALSO BUMPED UP SEAS ON THE OCEAN. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME FAIR WX CU AND COASTAL SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON VIA WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC
METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP
SOUTH COASTS CLOSER TO 80.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTS WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NJ...THAT COULD SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO PARTS OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS HINGES ON IDEAL
PLACEMENT OF MESOSCALE AND THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES AS FCST BY THAT
MODEL...INCLUDING A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...TOPPED BY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THAT REGION AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
AND PUSH IT NORTHWARD. THE 06Z GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE SLOWER TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE NORTHWARD...WHICH KEEPS THE JET STREAK AND
SFC THETA-E RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN NJ AND
PHILADELPHIA...WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP AS SFC RIDGING FROM
OFFSHORE WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THERE. SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS WOULD HAVE TO LINE UP PERFECTLY...WILL
NOT MENTION IN FCST...BUT IT IS WORTH MONITORING IN THE LATE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP TO A WEAK TROUGH AS IT GETS CLOSER MON
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO THIS TROUGH...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM FROM SW-
NE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST TUE AFTERNOON VIA DAYTIME
SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY
(PW TIMES 1000-500 MB MEAN RH) TO 1.6 INCHES...AND MBE VECTORS
UNDER 5 KT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ALOFT SO ORGANIZED SVR WX NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME
PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH
CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH CONTINUED
HIGH PW...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS
AGAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT
COULD LEAD TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE
COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOME TIME FRO THU INTO FRI MORNING. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

ANY LINGERING FOG BURNS OFF QUICKLY. VFR TODAY WITH FEW CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH MVFR LIKELY AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED LIFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

LIGHT W/NW WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES. WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SUB VFR IN PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW BECOMING NE.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FT
TODAY. 44017 HAS BEEN STEADY AT AROUND 4.6 FT THIS MRNG. UPDATED
THE FCST TO INDICATE AROUND 4 FT HOWEVER. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE TO DEAL
WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...ALSO POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT FROM THE
DURING MID WEEK. TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS PW INCREASES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN




000
FXUS61 KOKX 051106
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
706 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TODAY AND EAST OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL PLAIN WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN ON FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN CLOUDS MAINLY IN NYC METRO...AND PATCHY FOG MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME FAIR WX CU AND COASTAL SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON VIA WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC
METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP
SOUTH COASTS CLOSER TO 80.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTS WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NJ...THAT COULD SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO PARTS OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS HINGES ON IDEAL
PLACEMENT OF MESOSCALE AND THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES AS FCST BY THAT
MODEL...INCLUDING A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...TOPPED BY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THAT REGION AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
AND PUSH IT NORTHWARD. THE 06Z GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE SLOWER TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE NORTHWARD...WHICH KEEPS THE JET STREAK AND
SFC THETA-E RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN NJ AND
PHILADELPHIA...WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP AS SFC RIDGING FROM
OFFSHORE WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THERE. SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS WOULD HAVE TO LINE UP PERFECTLY...WILL
NOT MENTION IN FCST...BUT IT IS WORTH MONITORING IN THE LATE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP TO A WEAK TROUGH AS IT GETS CLOSER MON
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO THIS TROUGH...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM FROM SW-
NE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST TUE AFTERNOON VIA DAYTIME
SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY
(PW TIMES 1000-500 MB MEAN RH) TO 1.6 INCHES...AND MBE VECTORS
UNDER 5 KT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ALOFT SO ORGANIZED SVR WX NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME
PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH
CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH CONTINUED
HIGH PW...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS
AGAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT
COULD LEAD TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE
COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOME TIME FRO THU INTO FRI MORNING. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

ANY LINGERING FOG BURNS OFF QUICKLY. VFR TODAY WITH FEW CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH MVFR LIKELY AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED LIFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

LIGHT W/NW WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES. WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SUB VFR IN PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW BECOMING NE.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS NOW APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FT TODAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY
FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...ALSO POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT FROM THE
DURING MID WEEK. TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS PW INCREASES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN




000
FXUS61 KOKX 051027
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
627 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING UP
THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND
MOVE ACROSS ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN
ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN CLOUDS MAINLY IN NYC METRO...AND PATCHY FOG MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME FAIR WX CU AND COASTAL SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON VIA WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC
METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP
SOUTH COASTS CLOSER TO 80.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTS WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NJ...THAT COULD SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO PARTS OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS HINGES ON IDEAL
PLACEMENT OF MESOSCALE AND THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES AS FCST BY THAT
MODEL...INCLUDING A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...TOPPED BY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THAT REGION AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
AND PUSH IT NORTHWARD. THE 06Z GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE SLOWER TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE NORTHWARD...WHICH KEEPS THE JET STREAK AND
SFC THETA-E RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN NJ AND
PHILADELPHIA...WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP AS SFC RIDGING FROM
OFFSHORE WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THERE. SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS WOULD HAVE TO LINE UP PERFECTLY...WILL
NOT MENTION IN FCST...BUT IT IS WORTH MONITORING IN THE LATE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP TO A WEAK TROUGH AS IT GETS CLOSER MON
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO THIS TROUGH...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM FROM SW-
NE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST TUE AFTERNOON VIA DAYTIME
SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY
(PW TIMES 1000-500 MB MEAN RH) TO 1.6 INCHES...AND MBE VECTORS
UNDER 5 KT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ALOFT SO ORGANIZED SVR WX NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME
PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH
CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH CONTINUED
HIGH PW...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS
AGAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT
COULD LEAD TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE
COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOME TIME FRO THU INTO FRI MORNING. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

PATCHY FOG...WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF
BY 12Z. NYC METRO THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

THEN...FEW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. VFR.

LIGHT OR CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME W/NW AROUND 12Z
AT 4 TO 8 KTS. THEN...EXPECT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP. WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN FOG.
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SUB VFR IN PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW BECOMING NE.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS NOW APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FT TODAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY
FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...ALSO POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT FROM THE
DURING MID WEEK. TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS PW INCREASES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN




000
FXUS61 KOKX 051027
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
627 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING UP
THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND
MOVE ACROSS ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN
ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN CLOUDS MAINLY IN NYC METRO...AND PATCHY FOG MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME FAIR WX CU AND COASTAL SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON VIA WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC
METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP
SOUTH COASTS CLOSER TO 80.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTS WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NJ...THAT COULD SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO PARTS OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS HINGES ON IDEAL
PLACEMENT OF MESOSCALE AND THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES AS FCST BY THAT
MODEL...INCLUDING A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...TOPPED BY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THAT REGION AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
AND PUSH IT NORTHWARD. THE 06Z GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE SLOWER TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE NORTHWARD...WHICH KEEPS THE JET STREAK AND
SFC THETA-E RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN NJ AND
PHILADELPHIA...WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP AS SFC RIDGING FROM
OFFSHORE WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THERE. SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS WOULD HAVE TO LINE UP PERFECTLY...WILL
NOT MENTION IN FCST...BUT IT IS WORTH MONITORING IN THE LATE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP TO A WEAK TROUGH AS IT GETS CLOSER MON
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO THIS TROUGH...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM FROM SW-
NE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST TUE AFTERNOON VIA DAYTIME
SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY
(PW TIMES 1000-500 MB MEAN RH) TO 1.6 INCHES...AND MBE VECTORS
UNDER 5 KT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ALOFT SO ORGANIZED SVR WX NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME
PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH
CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH CONTINUED
HIGH PW...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS
AGAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT
COULD LEAD TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE
COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOME TIME FRO THU INTO FRI MORNING. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

PATCHY FOG...WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF
BY 12Z. NYC METRO THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

THEN...FEW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. VFR.

LIGHT OR CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME W/NW AROUND 12Z
AT 4 TO 8 KTS. THEN...EXPECT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP. WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN FOG.
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SUB VFR IN PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW BECOMING NE.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS NOW APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FT TODAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY
FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...ALSO POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT FROM THE
DURING MID WEEK. TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS PW INCREASES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN





000
FXUS61 KOKX 050758
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
358 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING UP
THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND
MOVE ACROSS ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN
ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND...AND PATCHY FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY...WITH SOME FAIR WX CU AND COASTAL SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON VIA WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC
METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP
SOUTH COASTS CLOSER TO 80.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
INCREASING MOISTURE.

UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP TO A WEAK TROUGH AS IT GETS CLOSER MON
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO THIS TROUGH...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM FROM SW-
NE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST TUE AFTERNOON VIA DAYTIME
SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY
(PW TIMES 1000-500 MB MEAN RH) TO 1.6 INCHES...AND MBE VECTORS
UNDER 5 KT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ALOFT SO ORGANIZED SVR WX NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME
PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH
CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH CONTINUED
HIGH PW...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS
AGAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT
COULD LEAD TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE
COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOME TIME FRO THU INTO FRI MORNING. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

PATCHY FOG...WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF
BY 12Z. NYC METRO THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

THEN...FEW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. VFR.

LIGHT OR CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME W/NW AROUND 12Z
AT 4 TO 8 KTS. THEN...EXPECT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP. WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN FOG.
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SUB VFR IN PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW BECOMING NE.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS NOW APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT TODAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY
FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...ALSO POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT FROM THE
DURING MID WEEK. TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS PW INCREASES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN




000
FXUS61 KOKX 050758
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
358 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING UP
THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND
MOVE ACROSS ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN
ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND...AND PATCHY FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY...WITH SOME FAIR WX CU AND COASTAL SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON VIA WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC
METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP
SOUTH COASTS CLOSER TO 80.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
INCREASING MOISTURE.

UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP TO A WEAK TROUGH AS IT GETS CLOSER MON
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO THIS TROUGH...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM FROM SW-
NE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST TUE AFTERNOON VIA DAYTIME
SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY
(PW TIMES 1000-500 MB MEAN RH) TO 1.6 INCHES...AND MBE VECTORS
UNDER 5 KT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ALOFT SO ORGANIZED SVR WX NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME
PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH
CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH CONTINUED
HIGH PW...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS
AGAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT
COULD LEAD TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE
COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOME TIME FRO THU INTO FRI MORNING. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

PATCHY FOG...WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF
BY 12Z. NYC METRO THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

THEN...FEW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. VFR.

LIGHT OR CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME W/NW AROUND 12Z
AT 4 TO 8 KTS. THEN...EXPECT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP. WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN FOG.
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SUB VFR IN PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW BECOMING NE.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS NOW APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT TODAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY
FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...ALSO POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT FROM THE
DURING MID WEEK. TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS PW INCREASES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN





000
FXUS61 KOKX 050758
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
358 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING UP
THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND
MOVE ACROSS ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN
ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND...AND PATCHY FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY...WITH SOME FAIR WX CU AND COASTAL SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON VIA WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC
METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP
SOUTH COASTS CLOSER TO 80.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
INCREASING MOISTURE.

UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP TO A WEAK TROUGH AS IT GETS CLOSER MON
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO THIS TROUGH...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM FROM SW-
NE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST TUE AFTERNOON VIA DAYTIME
SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY
(PW TIMES 1000-500 MB MEAN RH) TO 1.6 INCHES...AND MBE VECTORS
UNDER 5 KT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ALOFT SO ORGANIZED SVR WX NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME
PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH
CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH CONTINUED
HIGH PW...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS
AGAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT
COULD LEAD TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE
COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOME TIME FRO THU INTO FRI MORNING. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

PATCHY FOG...WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF
BY 12Z. NYC METRO THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

THEN...FEW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. VFR.

LIGHT OR CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME W/NW AROUND 12Z
AT 4 TO 8 KTS. THEN...EXPECT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP. WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN FOG.
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SUB VFR IN PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW BECOMING NE.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS NOW APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT TODAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY
FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...ALSO POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT FROM THE
DURING MID WEEK. TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS PW INCREASES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN




000
FXUS61 KOKX 050758
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
358 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING UP
THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND
MOVE ACROSS ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN
ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND...AND PATCHY FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY...WITH SOME FAIR WX CU AND COASTAL SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON VIA WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC
METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP
SOUTH COASTS CLOSER TO 80.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
INCREASING MOISTURE.

UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP TO A WEAK TROUGH AS IT GETS CLOSER MON
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO THIS TROUGH...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM FROM SW-
NE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST TUE AFTERNOON VIA DAYTIME
SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY
(PW TIMES 1000-500 MB MEAN RH) TO 1.6 INCHES...AND MBE VECTORS
UNDER 5 KT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ALOFT SO ORGANIZED SVR WX NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME
PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH
CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH CONTINUED
HIGH PW...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS
AGAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT
COULD LEAD TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE
COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOME TIME FRO THU INTO FRI MORNING. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

PATCHY FOG...WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF
BY 12Z. NYC METRO THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

THEN...FEW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. VFR.

LIGHT OR CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME W/NW AROUND 12Z
AT 4 TO 8 KTS. THEN...EXPECT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP. WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN FOG.
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SUB VFR IN PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW BECOMING NE.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS NOW APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT TODAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY
FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...ALSO POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT FROM THE
DURING MID WEEK. TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS PW INCREASES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN





000
FXUS61 KOKX 050532
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
132 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST...OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST...OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING LATE. LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
50S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS...WITH 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...WITH WEAK
THERMAL TROUGHING EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT...WILL KEEP SOUTH COASTS IN THE
LOWER 80S.

TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS WITH CLEARS SKIES...LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND MODERATING MOISTURE LEVELS.

UPPER RIDGING REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
LIFTS INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL SPELL MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPELL
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPS ACROSS THE NYC/NJ METRO
AND INTERIOR SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLY LEVELS...MID TO
UPPER 80S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS NEAR
SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SW WEAKENS FURTHER TO A TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS IT PUSHES TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD STICK AROUND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO THE WESTERN ZONES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA...THEN POPS INCREASE TO CHC DURING TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR ROUGHLY THE NW
HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
TUESDAY...BUT THEY STILL MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO
LOW...ESPECIALLY IF FEWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZE THAN FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH CAPE IS
PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH HIGH PWATS...FAIRLY
LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH
THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING
STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF THIS OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE BUILDS.

THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE COLD
FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

PATCHY FOG...WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF
BY 12Z. NYC METRO THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

THEN...FEW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. VFR.

LIGHT OR CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME W/NW AROUND 12Z
AT 4 TO 8 KTS. THEN...EXPECT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP. WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN FOG.
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SUB VFR IN PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW BECOMING NE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND REMAINS INTO MONDAY.
NORTHERLY WIND WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT. OCEAN SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT
MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN WATERS.

OTHERWISE WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...THEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY. THIS COULD TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING CRITERIA
THRESHOLDS HOWEVER ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH THE FRONT OVERHEAD OR NEARBY ON THURSDAY...WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST
MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOWEVER STILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COMBO OF A RECENT FULL MOON AND SOME TIDAL PILING VIA ELEVATED OCEAN
SEAS MAY CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE BRIEFLY
TOUCHED ALONG A FEW LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AT THE PEAK OF THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS ASTRONOMICAL TIES CONTINUE TO DROP.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 050532
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
132 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST...OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST...OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING LATE. LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
50S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS...WITH 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...WITH WEAK
THERMAL TROUGHING EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT...WILL KEEP SOUTH COASTS IN THE
LOWER 80S.

TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS WITH CLEARS SKIES...LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND MODERATING MOISTURE LEVELS.

UPPER RIDGING REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
LIFTS INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL SPELL MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPELL
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPS ACROSS THE NYC/NJ METRO
AND INTERIOR SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLY LEVELS...MID TO
UPPER 80S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS NEAR
SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SW WEAKENS FURTHER TO A TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS IT PUSHES TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD STICK AROUND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO THE WESTERN ZONES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA...THEN POPS INCREASE TO CHC DURING TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR ROUGHLY THE NW
HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
TUESDAY...BUT THEY STILL MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO
LOW...ESPECIALLY IF FEWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZE THAN FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH CAPE IS
PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH HIGH PWATS...FAIRLY
LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH
THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING
STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF THIS OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE BUILDS.

THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE COLD
FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

PATCHY FOG...WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF
BY 12Z. NYC METRO THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

THEN...FEW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. VFR.

LIGHT OR CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME W/NW AROUND 12Z
AT 4 TO 8 KTS. THEN...EXPECT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP. WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN FOG.
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SUB VFR IN PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW BECOMING NE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND REMAINS INTO MONDAY.
NORTHERLY WIND WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT. OCEAN SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT
MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN WATERS.

OTHERWISE WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...THEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY. THIS COULD TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING CRITERIA
THRESHOLDS HOWEVER ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH THE FRONT OVERHEAD OR NEARBY ON THURSDAY...WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST
MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOWEVER STILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COMBO OF A RECENT FULL MOON AND SOME TIDAL PILING VIA ELEVATED OCEAN
SEAS MAY CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE BRIEFLY
TOUCHED ALONG A FEW LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AT THE PEAK OF THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS ASTRONOMICAL TIES CONTINUE TO DROP.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 050231
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1031 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST...OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST...OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS TO DROP INTO THE 50S...AND 60S IN THE URBAN
CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...WITH WEAK
THERMAL TROUGHING EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT...WILL KEEP SOUTH COASTS IN THE
LOWER 80S.

TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS WITH CLEARS SKIES...LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND MODERATING MOISTURE LEVELS.

UPPER RIDGING REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
LIFTS INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL SPELL MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPELL
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPS ACROSS THE NYC/NJ METRO
AND INTERIOR SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLY LEVELS...MID TO
UPPER 80S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS NEAR
SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SW WEAKENS FURTHER TO A TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS IT PUSHES TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD STICK AROUND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO THE WESTERN ZONES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA...THEN POPS INCREASE TO CHC DURING TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR ROUGHLY THE NW
HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
TUESDAY...BUT THEY STILL MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO
LOW...ESPECIALLY IF FEWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZE THAN FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH CAPE IS
PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH HIGH PWATS...FAIRLY
LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH
THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING
STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF THIS OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE BUILDS.

THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE COLD
FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH REMAINS
OVER THE REGION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM WIND OVERNIGHT. THE WIND BECOMES
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST...5 TO LESS THAN 10 KT...12Z TO 13Z
SUNDAY...AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS SEA
BREEZES DEVELOP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR WITH SSW FLOW.
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHWRS. FLOW BECOMING NE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND REMAINS INTO MONDAY.
NORTHERLY WIND WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT. OCEAN SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT
MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT LATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
SWELLS...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

OTHERWISE WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...THEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY. THIS COULD TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING CRITERIA
THRESHOLDS HOWEVER ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH THE FRONT OVERHEAD OR NEARBY ON THURSDAY...WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST
MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOWEVER STILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COMBO OF A RECENT FULL MOON AND SOME TIDAL PILING VIA ELEVATED OCEAN
SEAS MAY CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE BRIEFLY
TOUCHED ALONG A FEW LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AT THE PEAK OF THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS ASTRONOMICAL TIES CONTINUE TO DROP.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 050231
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1031 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST...OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST...OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS TO DROP INTO THE 50S...AND 60S IN THE URBAN
CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...WITH WEAK
THERMAL TROUGHING EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT...WILL KEEP SOUTH COASTS IN THE
LOWER 80S.

TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS WITH CLEARS SKIES...LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND MODERATING MOISTURE LEVELS.

UPPER RIDGING REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
LIFTS INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL SPELL MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPELL
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPS ACROSS THE NYC/NJ METRO
AND INTERIOR SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLY LEVELS...MID TO
UPPER 80S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS NEAR
SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SW WEAKENS FURTHER TO A TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS IT PUSHES TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD STICK AROUND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO THE WESTERN ZONES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA...THEN POPS INCREASE TO CHC DURING TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR ROUGHLY THE NW
HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
TUESDAY...BUT THEY STILL MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO
LOW...ESPECIALLY IF FEWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZE THAN FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH CAPE IS
PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH HIGH PWATS...FAIRLY
LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH
THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING
STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF THIS OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE BUILDS.

THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE COLD
FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH REMAINS
OVER THE REGION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM WIND OVERNIGHT. THE WIND BECOMES
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST...5 TO LESS THAN 10 KT...12Z TO 13Z
SUNDAY...AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS SEA
BREEZES DEVELOP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR WITH SSW FLOW.
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHWRS. FLOW BECOMING NE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND REMAINS INTO MONDAY.
NORTHERLY WIND WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT. OCEAN SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT
MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT LATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
SWELLS...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

OTHERWISE WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...THEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY. THIS COULD TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING CRITERIA
THRESHOLDS HOWEVER ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH THE FRONT OVERHEAD OR NEARBY ON THURSDAY...WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST
MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOWEVER STILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COMBO OF A RECENT FULL MOON AND SOME TIDAL PILING VIA ELEVATED OCEAN
SEAS MAY CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE BRIEFLY
TOUCHED ALONG A FEW LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AT THE PEAK OF THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS ASTRONOMICAL TIES CONTINUE TO DROP.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 042333
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
733 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SE OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND THEN OUT TO SEA
OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT.

RAIN THREAT IS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY ISOLATED SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWA UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
SUNDOWN. GENERALLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS DIMINISH...BUT SOME OF THE EASTERNMOST
ZONES COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS TO DROP INTO THE 50S. 60S IN THE URBAN
CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH WEAK UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING IN IT WAKE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...WITH WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT...WILL KEEP SOUTH COASTS IN THE
LOWER 80S.

TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS WITH CLEARS SKIES...LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND MODERATING MOISTURE LEVELS.

UPPER RIDGING REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
LIFTS INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL SPELL MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPELL
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPS ACROSS THE NYC/NJ METRO
AND INTERIOR SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLY LEVELS...MID TO
UPPER 80S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS NEAR
SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SW WEAKENS FURTHER TO A TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS IT PUSHES TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD STICK AROUND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO THE WESTERN ZONES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA...THEN POPS INCREASE TO CHC DURING TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR ROUGHLY THE NW
HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
TUESDAY...BUT THEY STILL MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO
LOW...ESPECIALLY IF FEWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZE THAN FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH CAPE IS
PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH HIGH PWATS...FAIRLY
LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH
THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING
STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF THIS OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE BUILDS.

THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE COLD
FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE NYC
TERMINAL AREA UNTIL 01Z..OTHERWISE DRY.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM WIND TONIGHT. THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST...5 TO LESS THAN 10 KT...12Z TO 13Z SUNDAY...AND
THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR WITH SSW FLOW.
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHWRS. FLOW BECOMING NE.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE...SOUTH OF THE WATERS...DEPARTS TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS EVENING
ACROSS OCEAN WATERS...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. OCEAN
SEAS OF MOSTLY 2-4 FT MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT LATE TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY SWELLS ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH SUB SCA CONDS.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY. THIS
COULD TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. IT COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING CRITERIA THRESHOLDS
HOWEVER ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE
FRONT OVERHEAD OR NEARBY ON THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST
MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOWEVER STILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COMBO OF A RECENT FULL MOON AND SOME TIDAL PILING VIA ELEVATED OCEAN
SEAS MAY CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE BRIEFLY
TOUCHED ALONG A FEW LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AT THE PEAK OF THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS ASTRONOMICAL TIES CONTINUE TO DROP.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 042333
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
733 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SE OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND THEN OUT TO SEA
OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT.

RAIN THREAT IS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY ISOLATED SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWA UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
SUNDOWN. GENERALLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS DIMINISH...BUT SOME OF THE EASTERNMOST
ZONES COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS TO DROP INTO THE 50S. 60S IN THE URBAN
CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH WEAK UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING IN IT WAKE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...WITH WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT...WILL KEEP SOUTH COASTS IN THE
LOWER 80S.

TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS WITH CLEARS SKIES...LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND MODERATING MOISTURE LEVELS.

UPPER RIDGING REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
LIFTS INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL SPELL MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPELL
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPS ACROSS THE NYC/NJ METRO
AND INTERIOR SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLY LEVELS...MID TO
UPPER 80S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS NEAR
SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SW WEAKENS FURTHER TO A TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS IT PUSHES TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD STICK AROUND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO THE WESTERN ZONES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA...THEN POPS INCREASE TO CHC DURING TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR ROUGHLY THE NW
HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
TUESDAY...BUT THEY STILL MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO
LOW...ESPECIALLY IF FEWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZE THAN FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH CAPE IS
PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH HIGH PWATS...FAIRLY
LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH
THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING
STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF THIS OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE BUILDS.

THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE COLD
FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE NYC
TERMINAL AREA UNTIL 01Z..OTHERWISE DRY.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM WIND TONIGHT. THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST...5 TO LESS THAN 10 KT...12Z TO 13Z SUNDAY...AND
THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR WITH SSW FLOW.
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHWRS. FLOW BECOMING NE.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE...SOUTH OF THE WATERS...DEPARTS TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS EVENING
ACROSS OCEAN WATERS...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. OCEAN
SEAS OF MOSTLY 2-4 FT MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT LATE TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY SWELLS ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH SUB SCA CONDS.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY. THIS
COULD TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. IT COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING CRITERIA THRESHOLDS
HOWEVER ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE
FRONT OVERHEAD OR NEARBY ON THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST
MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOWEVER STILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COMBO OF A RECENT FULL MOON AND SOME TIDAL PILING VIA ELEVATED OCEAN
SEAS MAY CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE BRIEFLY
TOUCHED ALONG A FEW LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AT THE PEAK OF THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS ASTRONOMICAL TIES CONTINUE TO DROP.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 042333
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
733 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SE OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND THEN OUT TO SEA
OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT.

RAIN THREAT IS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY ISOLATED SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWA UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
SUNDOWN. GENERALLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS DIMINISH...BUT SOME OF THE EASTERNMOST
ZONES COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS TO DROP INTO THE 50S. 60S IN THE URBAN
CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH WEAK UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING IN IT WAKE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...WITH WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT...WILL KEEP SOUTH COASTS IN THE
LOWER 80S.

TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS WITH CLEARS SKIES...LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND MODERATING MOISTURE LEVELS.

UPPER RIDGING REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
LIFTS INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL SPELL MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPELL
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPS ACROSS THE NYC/NJ METRO
AND INTERIOR SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLY LEVELS...MID TO
UPPER 80S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS NEAR
SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SW WEAKENS FURTHER TO A TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS IT PUSHES TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD STICK AROUND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO THE WESTERN ZONES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA...THEN POPS INCREASE TO CHC DURING TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR ROUGHLY THE NW
HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
TUESDAY...BUT THEY STILL MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO
LOW...ESPECIALLY IF FEWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZE THAN FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH CAPE IS
PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH HIGH PWATS...FAIRLY
LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH
THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING
STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF THIS OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE BUILDS.

THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE COLD
FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE NYC
TERMINAL AREA UNTIL 01Z..OTHERWISE DRY.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM WIND TONIGHT. THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST...5 TO LESS THAN 10 KT...12Z TO 13Z SUNDAY...AND
THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR WITH SSW FLOW.
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHWRS. FLOW BECOMING NE.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE...SOUTH OF THE WATERS...DEPARTS TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS EVENING
ACROSS OCEAN WATERS...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. OCEAN
SEAS OF MOSTLY 2-4 FT MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT LATE TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY SWELLS ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH SUB SCA CONDS.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY. THIS
COULD TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. IT COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING CRITERIA THRESHOLDS
HOWEVER ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE
FRONT OVERHEAD OR NEARBY ON THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST
MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOWEVER STILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COMBO OF A RECENT FULL MOON AND SOME TIDAL PILING VIA ELEVATED OCEAN
SEAS MAY CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE BRIEFLY
TOUCHED ALONG A FEW LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AT THE PEAK OF THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS ASTRONOMICAL TIES CONTINUE TO DROP.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 041944
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
344 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SE OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND THEN OUT TO SEA
OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT RAIN SHIELD ACROSS LI/CT...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRANSLATING
EASTWARD AND WEAKENING AS THE LATE AFT/EARLY EVE PROGRESSES. IN
ITS WAKE...GRADUAL DRYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH
THREAT OF AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COMING TO AN END.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING...WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 5 TO 7 KFT. GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS TO DROP INTO THE 50S. 60S IN THE URBAN
CENTERS.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH WEAK UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING IN IT WAKE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...WITH WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT...WILL KEEP SOUTH COASTS IN THE
LOWER 80S.

TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS WITH CLEARS SKIES...LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND MODERATING MOISTURE LEVELS.

UPPER RIDGING REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
LIFTS INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL SPELL MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPELL
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPS ACROSS THE NYC/NJ METRO
AND INTERIOR SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLY LEVELS...MID TO
UPPER 80S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS NEAR
SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SW WEAKENS FURTHER TO A TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS IT PUSHES TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD STICK AROUND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO THE WESTERN ZONES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA...THEN POPS INCREASE TO CHC DURING TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR ROUGHLY THE NW
HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
TUESDAY...BUT THEY STILL MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO
LOW...ESPECIALLY IF FEWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZE THAN FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH CAPE IS
PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH HIGH PWATS...FAIRLY
LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH
THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING
STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF THIS OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE BUILDS.

THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE COLD
FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LOW PRES PASSES SE OF CAPE COD THIS EVE. HI PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
W SUN.

MAINLY VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT KSWF.

NNE WINDS TODAY VEER SLIGHTLY THRU 22-00Z...THEN BECOME LGT AND VRB
TNGT. W FLOW DEVELOPS AFT 12Z SUN...THEN MODIFIED SSW SEA BREEZE
FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.REST OF SUN...VFR WITH SSW FLOW.
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE. FLOW BECOMING NE.


&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE...SOUTH OF THE WATERS...DEPARTS TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS EVENING ACROSS
OCEAN AND LI SOUND WATERS...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
OCEAN SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT...MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT LATE TONIGHT
WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH SUB SCA CONDS.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY. THIS
COULD TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. IT COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING CRITERIA THRESHOLDS
HOWEVER ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE
FRONT OVERHEAD OR NEARBY ON THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST
MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOWEVER STILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

COMBO OF A RECENT FULL MOON AND SOME TIDAL PILING VIA ELEVATED OCEAN
SEAS MAY CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE BRIEFLY
TOUCHED ALONG A FEW LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AT THE PEAK OF THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS ASTRONOMICAL TIES CONTINUE TO DROP.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 041944
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
344 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SE OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND THEN OUT TO SEA
OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT RAIN SHIELD ACROSS LI/CT...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRANSLATING
EASTWARD AND WEAKENING AS THE LATE AFT/EARLY EVE PROGRESSES. IN
ITS WAKE...GRADUAL DRYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH
THREAT OF AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COMING TO AN END.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING...WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 5 TO 7 KFT. GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS TO DROP INTO THE 50S. 60S IN THE URBAN
CENTERS.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH WEAK UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING IN IT WAKE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...WITH WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT...WILL KEEP SOUTH COASTS IN THE
LOWER 80S.

TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS WITH CLEARS SKIES...LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND MODERATING MOISTURE LEVELS.

UPPER RIDGING REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
LIFTS INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL SPELL MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPELL
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPS ACROSS THE NYC/NJ METRO
AND INTERIOR SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLY LEVELS...MID TO
UPPER 80S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS NEAR
SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SW WEAKENS FURTHER TO A TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS IT PUSHES TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD STICK AROUND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO THE WESTERN ZONES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA...THEN POPS INCREASE TO CHC DURING TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR ROUGHLY THE NW
HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
TUESDAY...BUT THEY STILL MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO
LOW...ESPECIALLY IF FEWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZE THAN FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH CAPE IS
PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH HIGH PWATS...FAIRLY
LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH
THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING
STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF THIS OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE BUILDS.

THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE COLD
FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LOW PRES PASSES SE OF CAPE COD THIS EVE. HI PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
W SUN.

MAINLY VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT KSWF.

NNE WINDS TODAY VEER SLIGHTLY THRU 22-00Z...THEN BECOME LGT AND VRB
TNGT. W FLOW DEVELOPS AFT 12Z SUN...THEN MODIFIED SSW SEA BREEZE
FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.REST OF SUN...VFR WITH SSW FLOW.
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE. FLOW BECOMING NE.


&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE...SOUTH OF THE WATERS...DEPARTS TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS EVENING ACROSS
OCEAN AND LI SOUND WATERS...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
OCEAN SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT...MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT LATE TONIGHT
WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH SUB SCA CONDS.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY. THIS
COULD TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. IT COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING CRITERIA THRESHOLDS
HOWEVER ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE
FRONT OVERHEAD OR NEARBY ON THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST
MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOWEVER STILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

COMBO OF A RECENT FULL MOON AND SOME TIDAL PILING VIA ELEVATED OCEAN
SEAS MAY CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE BRIEFLY
TOUCHED ALONG A FEW LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AT THE PEAK OF THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS ASTRONOMICAL TIES CONTINUE TO DROP.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 041944
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
344 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SE OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND THEN OUT TO SEA
OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT RAIN SHIELD ACROSS LI/CT...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRANSLATING
EASTWARD AND WEAKENING AS THE LATE AFT/EARLY EVE PROGRESSES. IN
ITS WAKE...GRADUAL DRYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH
THREAT OF AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COMING TO AN END.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING...WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 5 TO 7 KFT. GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS TO DROP INTO THE 50S. 60S IN THE URBAN
CENTERS.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH WEAK UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING IN IT WAKE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...WITH WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT...WILL KEEP SOUTH COASTS IN THE
LOWER 80S.

TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS WITH CLEARS SKIES...LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND MODERATING MOISTURE LEVELS.

UPPER RIDGING REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
LIFTS INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL SPELL MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPELL
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPS ACROSS THE NYC/NJ METRO
AND INTERIOR SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLY LEVELS...MID TO
UPPER 80S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS NEAR
SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SW WEAKENS FURTHER TO A TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS IT PUSHES TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD STICK AROUND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO THE WESTERN ZONES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA...THEN POPS INCREASE TO CHC DURING TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR ROUGHLY THE NW
HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
TUESDAY...BUT THEY STILL MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO
LOW...ESPECIALLY IF FEWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZE THAN FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH CAPE IS
PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH HIGH PWATS...FAIRLY
LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH
THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING
STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF THIS OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE BUILDS.

THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE COLD
FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LOW PRES PASSES SE OF CAPE COD THIS EVE. HI PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
W SUN.

MAINLY VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT KSWF.

NNE WINDS TODAY VEER SLIGHTLY THRU 22-00Z...THEN BECOME LGT AND VRB
TNGT. W FLOW DEVELOPS AFT 12Z SUN...THEN MODIFIED SSW SEA BREEZE
FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.REST OF SUN...VFR WITH SSW FLOW.
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE. FLOW BECOMING NE.


&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE...SOUTH OF THE WATERS...DEPARTS TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS EVENING ACROSS
OCEAN AND LI SOUND WATERS...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
OCEAN SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT...MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT LATE TONIGHT
WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH SUB SCA CONDS.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY. THIS
COULD TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. IT COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING CRITERIA THRESHOLDS
HOWEVER ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE
FRONT OVERHEAD OR NEARBY ON THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST
MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOWEVER STILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

COMBO OF A RECENT FULL MOON AND SOME TIDAL PILING VIA ELEVATED OCEAN
SEAS MAY CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE BRIEFLY
TOUCHED ALONG A FEW LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AT THE PEAK OF THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS ASTRONOMICAL TIES CONTINUE TO DROP.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 041758
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
158 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT RAIN SHIELD ACROSS NYC AND POINT N&W...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRANSLATING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
RAIN TO THE NORTH OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
OR SPRINKLES BECOMING ISO-SCT AND MAINLY ACROSS LI/CT BY 6 PM.

HIGH TEMPS IN UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NORTH/WEST OF NYC AND LOWER
TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
JUST A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING AND MAINLY ACROSS LI/CT. COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR LATE EVENING INDEPENDENCE DAY
FIREWORK DISPLAYS IN MOST PLACES.

SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING AROUND 5 TO 7
KFT...THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD IN. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER/MID 60S IN NYC METRO
AND 55-60 ELSEWHERE PER A GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE BLEND.

EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH AFTERNOON FAIR WX CU
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY INLAND...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A
DEVELOPING SFC THERMAL TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALSO AID AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPS ARE CLOSE OR A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
GFS MOS...WITH LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC METRO AND THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM/DRY DAY FOR MONDAY WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.

NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL COME DURING MID WEEK...FIRST WITH A
WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP FROM THE SW...THEN WITH A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW. CONTINUE WITH CHANCE THUNDER FROM
LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE/WED ARE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE.
MORE SUNSHINE ON TUE COULD PUSH TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FCST.
WED SHOULD BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SW ALONG THE STALLING
COLD FRONT...AND EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN THU INTO THU
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDS ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRES PASSES S OF LI TODAY. HI PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W SUN.

MAINLY VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. EXCEPTION IS AT KSWF WHERE SOME
-RA WILL PRODUCE MVFR THRU ABOUT 19-20Z.

NNE WINDS TODAY VEER SLIGHTLY THRU 22-00Z...THEN BECOME LGT AND
VRB TNGT. W FLOW DEVELOPS AFT 12Z SUN...THEN MODIFIED SSW SEA
BREEZE FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.REST OF SUN...VFR WITH SSW FLOW.
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE. FLOW BECOMING NE.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY...AND DEPARTS TO
THE EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW AS THEY BACK
TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...A FEW GUSTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH 25 KTS. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE
BRIEF SO WILL NOT POST ANY MARINE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN AT 3 TO 4 FEET TODAY. THE OCEAN
WATERS...PARTICULARLY EAST...MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET LATE TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY SWELLS. SEAS/WAVES 1 TO 2 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. IN GENERAL...A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY THAN 1/10 INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TODAY. THERE IS STILL
A GOOD CHANCE THAT PART OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CT COULD
REMAIN DRY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING NEARBY
WED INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COMBO OF A RECENT FULL MOON AND SOME TIDAL PILING VIA ELEVATED OCEAN
SEAS MAY CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE BRIEFLY
TOUCHED ALONG A FEW LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AT THE PEAK OF THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS ASTRONOMICAL TIES CONTINUE TO DROP.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JC/GOODMAN/PW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...PW/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 041758
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
158 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT RAIN SHIELD ACROSS NYC AND POINT N&W...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRANSLATING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
RAIN TO THE NORTH OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
OR SPRINKLES BECOMING ISO-SCT AND MAINLY ACROSS LI/CT BY 6 PM.

HIGH TEMPS IN UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NORTH/WEST OF NYC AND LOWER
TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
JUST A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING AND MAINLY ACROSS LI/CT. COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR LATE EVENING INDEPENDENCE DAY
FIREWORK DISPLAYS IN MOST PLACES.

SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING AROUND 5 TO 7
KFT...THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD IN. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER/MID 60S IN NYC METRO
AND 55-60 ELSEWHERE PER A GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE BLEND.

EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH AFTERNOON FAIR WX CU
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY INLAND...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A
DEVELOPING SFC THERMAL TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALSO AID AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPS ARE CLOSE OR A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
GFS MOS...WITH LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC METRO AND THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM/DRY DAY FOR MONDAY WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.

NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL COME DURING MID WEEK...FIRST WITH A
WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP FROM THE SW...THEN WITH A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW. CONTINUE WITH CHANCE THUNDER FROM
LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE/WED ARE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE.
MORE SUNSHINE ON TUE COULD PUSH TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FCST.
WED SHOULD BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SW ALONG THE STALLING
COLD FRONT...AND EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN THU INTO THU
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDS ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRES PASSES S OF LI TODAY. HI PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W SUN.

MAINLY VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. EXCEPTION IS AT KSWF WHERE SOME
-RA WILL PRODUCE MVFR THRU ABOUT 19-20Z.

NNE WINDS TODAY VEER SLIGHTLY THRU 22-00Z...THEN BECOME LGT AND
VRB TNGT. W FLOW DEVELOPS AFT 12Z SUN...THEN MODIFIED SSW SEA
BREEZE FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.REST OF SUN...VFR WITH SSW FLOW.
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE. FLOW BECOMING NE.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY...AND DEPARTS TO
THE EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW AS THEY BACK
TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...A FEW GUSTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH 25 KTS. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE
BRIEF SO WILL NOT POST ANY MARINE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN AT 3 TO 4 FEET TODAY. THE OCEAN
WATERS...PARTICULARLY EAST...MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET LATE TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY SWELLS. SEAS/WAVES 1 TO 2 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. IN GENERAL...A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY THAN 1/10 INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TODAY. THERE IS STILL
A GOOD CHANCE THAT PART OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CT COULD
REMAIN DRY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING NEARBY
WED INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COMBO OF A RECENT FULL MOON AND SOME TIDAL PILING VIA ELEVATED OCEAN
SEAS MAY CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE BRIEFLY
TOUCHED ALONG A FEW LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AT THE PEAK OF THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS ASTRONOMICAL TIES CONTINUE TO DROP.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JC/GOODMAN/PW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...PW/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 041441
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1041 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH LATEST HI RES HOURLY MODELS SUGGEST THE
BULK OF THE RAIN REMAINS CONFINED TO THE NW ZONES THIS
MORNING...LIKELY WEAKENING AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD. STEADIER RAIN
TO THE NORTH OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MANY AREAS COULD SEE A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...NOT A WASHOUT WITH SOME AREAS
REMAINING DRY.

SIDED WITH THE COOLER GFS MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS...WITH UPPER 60S
NORTH/WEST OF NYC AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS IN TIME FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY FIREWORK DISPLAYS IN MOST PLACES...BUT WITH H7-8
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LAGGING
ACROSS MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT EARLY THIS EVENING A
LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO START...THEN GRADUALLY
CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN
THE LOWER/MID 60S IN NYC METRO AND 55-60 ELSEWHERE PER A GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE BLEND.

EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH AFTERNOON FAIR WX CU
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY INLAND...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A
DEVELOPING SFC THERMAL TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALSO AID AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPS ARE CLOSE OR A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
GFS MOS...WITH LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC METRO AND THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM/DRY DAY FOR MONDAY WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.

NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL COME DURING MID WEEK...FIRST WITH A
WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP FROM THE SW...THEN WITH A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW. CONTINUE WITH CHANCE THUNDER FROM
LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE/WED ARE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE.
MORE SUNSHINE ON TUE COULD PUSH TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FCST.
WED SHOULD BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SW ALONG THE STALLING
COLD FRONT...AND EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN THU INTO THU
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDS ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

LIGHT EAST WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS REMAIN LIGHT EAST OR
EVEN SE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW. AS
SUCH...WIND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS SCATTER
TONIGHT. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY BRIEF...EXCEPT AT
KSWF WHERE -RA CAN BE EXPECTED THRU AT LEAST 16Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY...AND DEPARTS TO
THE EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW AS THEY BACK
TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...A FEW GUSTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH 25 KTS. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE
BRIEF SO WILL NOT POST ANY MARINE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN AT 3 TO 4 FEET TODAY...POSSIBLY TOUCHING
5 FT BY EVENING. THE OCEAN WATERS...PARTICULARLY EAST...MAY BUILD
TO 5 FEET LATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS. SEAS/WAVES 1 TO 2 FT
OR LESS ELSEWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. IN GENERAL...A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE TODAY
NORTH/WEST OF NYC...AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ELSEWHERE. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT PART OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT
COULD REMAIN DRY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING NEARBY
WED INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COMBO OF A RECENT FULL MOON AND SOME TIDAL PILING VIA ELEVATED
OCEAN SEAS COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE
TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/PW
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JC/GOODMAN/PW
AVIATION...JMC/PW
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 041441
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1041 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH LATEST HI RES HOURLY MODELS SUGGEST THE
BULK OF THE RAIN REMAINS CONFINED TO THE NW ZONES THIS
MORNING...LIKELY WEAKENING AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD. STEADIER RAIN
TO THE NORTH OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MANY AREAS COULD SEE A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...NOT A WASHOUT WITH SOME AREAS
REMAINING DRY.

SIDED WITH THE COOLER GFS MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS...WITH UPPER 60S
NORTH/WEST OF NYC AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS IN TIME FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY FIREWORK DISPLAYS IN MOST PLACES...BUT WITH H7-8
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LAGGING
ACROSS MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT EARLY THIS EVENING A
LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO START...THEN GRADUALLY
CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN
THE LOWER/MID 60S IN NYC METRO AND 55-60 ELSEWHERE PER A GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE BLEND.

EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH AFTERNOON FAIR WX CU
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY INLAND...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A
DEVELOPING SFC THERMAL TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALSO AID AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPS ARE CLOSE OR A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
GFS MOS...WITH LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC METRO AND THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM/DRY DAY FOR MONDAY WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.

NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL COME DURING MID WEEK...FIRST WITH A
WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP FROM THE SW...THEN WITH A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW. CONTINUE WITH CHANCE THUNDER FROM
LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE/WED ARE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE.
MORE SUNSHINE ON TUE COULD PUSH TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FCST.
WED SHOULD BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SW ALONG THE STALLING
COLD FRONT...AND EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN THU INTO THU
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDS ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

LIGHT EAST WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS REMAIN LIGHT EAST OR
EVEN SE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW. AS
SUCH...WIND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS SCATTER
TONIGHT. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY BRIEF...EXCEPT AT
KSWF WHERE -RA CAN BE EXPECTED THRU AT LEAST 16Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY...AND DEPARTS TO
THE EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW AS THEY BACK
TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...A FEW GUSTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH 25 KTS. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE
BRIEF SO WILL NOT POST ANY MARINE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN AT 3 TO 4 FEET TODAY...POSSIBLY TOUCHING
5 FT BY EVENING. THE OCEAN WATERS...PARTICULARLY EAST...MAY BUILD
TO 5 FEET LATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS. SEAS/WAVES 1 TO 2 FT
OR LESS ELSEWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. IN GENERAL...A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE TODAY
NORTH/WEST OF NYC...AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ELSEWHERE. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT PART OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT
COULD REMAIN DRY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING NEARBY
WED INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COMBO OF A RECENT FULL MOON AND SOME TIDAL PILING VIA ELEVATED
OCEAN SEAS COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE
TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/PW
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JC/GOODMAN/PW
AVIATION...JMC/PW
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 041441
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1041 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH LATEST HI RES HOURLY MODELS SUGGEST THE
BULK OF THE RAIN REMAINS CONFINED TO THE NW ZONES THIS
MORNING...LIKELY WEAKENING AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD. STEADIER RAIN
TO THE NORTH OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MANY AREAS COULD SEE A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...NOT A WASHOUT WITH SOME AREAS
REMAINING DRY.

SIDED WITH THE COOLER GFS MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS...WITH UPPER 60S
NORTH/WEST OF NYC AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS IN TIME FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY FIREWORK DISPLAYS IN MOST PLACES...BUT WITH H7-8
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LAGGING
ACROSS MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT EARLY THIS EVENING A
LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO START...THEN GRADUALLY
CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN
THE LOWER/MID 60S IN NYC METRO AND 55-60 ELSEWHERE PER A GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE BLEND.

EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH AFTERNOON FAIR WX CU
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY INLAND...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A
DEVELOPING SFC THERMAL TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALSO AID AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPS ARE CLOSE OR A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
GFS MOS...WITH LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC METRO AND THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM/DRY DAY FOR MONDAY WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.

NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL COME DURING MID WEEK...FIRST WITH A
WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP FROM THE SW...THEN WITH A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW. CONTINUE WITH CHANCE THUNDER FROM
LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE/WED ARE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE.
MORE SUNSHINE ON TUE COULD PUSH TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FCST.
WED SHOULD BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SW ALONG THE STALLING
COLD FRONT...AND EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN THU INTO THU
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDS ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

LIGHT EAST WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS REMAIN LIGHT EAST OR
EVEN SE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW. AS
SUCH...WIND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS SCATTER
TONIGHT. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY BRIEF...EXCEPT AT
KSWF WHERE -RA CAN BE EXPECTED THRU AT LEAST 16Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY...AND DEPARTS TO
THE EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW AS THEY BACK
TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...A FEW GUSTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH 25 KTS. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE
BRIEF SO WILL NOT POST ANY MARINE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN AT 3 TO 4 FEET TODAY...POSSIBLY TOUCHING
5 FT BY EVENING. THE OCEAN WATERS...PARTICULARLY EAST...MAY BUILD
TO 5 FEET LATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS. SEAS/WAVES 1 TO 2 FT
OR LESS ELSEWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. IN GENERAL...A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE TODAY
NORTH/WEST OF NYC...AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ELSEWHERE. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT PART OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT
COULD REMAIN DRY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING NEARBY
WED INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COMBO OF A RECENT FULL MOON AND SOME TIDAL PILING VIA ELEVATED
OCEAN SEAS COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE
TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/PW
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JC/GOODMAN/PW
AVIATION...JMC/PW
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 041416
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1016 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH LATEST HI RES HOURLY MODELS SUGGEST THE
BULK OF THE RAIN REMAINS CONFINED TO THE NW ZONES THIS
MORNING...LIKELY WEAKENING AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD. STEADIER RAIN
TO THE NORTH OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MANY AREAS COULD SEE A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...NOT A WASHOUT WITH SOME AREAS
REMAINING DRY.

SIDED WITH THE COOLER GFS MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS...WITH UPPER 60S
NORTH/WEST OF NYC AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS IN TIME FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY FIREWORK DISPLAYS IN MOST PLACES...BUT WITH H7-8
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LAGGING
ACROSS MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT EARLY THIS EVENING A
LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO START...THEN GRADUALLY
CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN
THE LOWER/MID 60S IN NYC METRO AND 55-60 ELSEWHERE PER A GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE BLEND.

EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH AFTERNOON FAIR WX CU
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY INLAND...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A
DEVELOPING SFC THERMAL TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALSO AID AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPS ARE CLOSE OR A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
GFS MOS...WITH LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC METRO AND THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM/DRY DAY FOR MONDAY WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.

NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL COME DURING MID WEEK...FIRST WITH A
WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP FROM THE SW...THEN WITH A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW. CONTINUE WITH CHANCE THUNDER FROM
LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE/WED ARE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE.
MORE SUNSHINE ON TUE COULD PUSH TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FCST.
WED SHOULD BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SW ALONG THE STALLING
COLD FRONT...AND EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN THU INTO THU
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDS ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

LIGHT EAST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BACK SLIGHTLY TO
THE NE AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT WINDS REMAIN LIGHT EAST OR EVEN SE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE LOW. AS SUCH...WIND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS SCATTER
TONIGHT. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY BRIEF...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY AT KSWF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY...AND DEPARTS TO
THE EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW AS THEY BACK
TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...A FEW GUSTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH 25 KTS. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE
BRIEF SO WILL NOT POST ANY MARINE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN AT 3 TO 4 FEET TODAY...POSSIBLY TOUCHING
5 FT BY EVENING. THE OCEAN WATERS...PARTICULARLY EAST...MAY BUILD
TO 5 FEET LATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS. SEAS/WAVES 1 TO 2 FT
OR LESS ELSEWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. IN GENERAL...A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE TODAY
NORTH/WEST OF NYC...AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ELSEWHERE. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT PART OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT
COULD REMAIN DRY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING NEARBY
WED INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COMBO OF A RECENT FULL MOON AND SOME TIDAL PILING VIA ELEVATED
OCEAN SEAS COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE
TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/PW
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JC/GOODMAN/PW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 041416
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1016 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH LATEST HI RES HOURLY MODELS SUGGEST THE
BULK OF THE RAIN REMAINS CONFINED TO THE NW ZONES THIS
MORNING...LIKELY WEAKENING AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD. STEADIER RAIN
TO THE NORTH OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MANY AREAS COULD SEE A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...NOT A WASHOUT WITH SOME AREAS
REMAINING DRY.

SIDED WITH THE COOLER GFS MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS...WITH UPPER 60S
NORTH/WEST OF NYC AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS IN TIME FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY FIREWORK DISPLAYS IN MOST PLACES...BUT WITH H7-8
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LAGGING
ACROSS MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT EARLY THIS EVENING A
LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO START...THEN GRADUALLY
CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN
THE LOWER/MID 60S IN NYC METRO AND 55-60 ELSEWHERE PER A GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE BLEND.

EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH AFTERNOON FAIR WX CU
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY INLAND...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A
DEVELOPING SFC THERMAL TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALSO AID AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPS ARE CLOSE OR A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
GFS MOS...WITH LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC METRO AND THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM/DRY DAY FOR MONDAY WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.

NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL COME DURING MID WEEK...FIRST WITH A
WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP FROM THE SW...THEN WITH A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW. CONTINUE WITH CHANCE THUNDER FROM
LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE/WED ARE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE.
MORE SUNSHINE ON TUE COULD PUSH TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FCST.
WED SHOULD BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SW ALONG THE STALLING
COLD FRONT...AND EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN THU INTO THU
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDS ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

LIGHT EAST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BACK SLIGHTLY TO
THE NE AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT WINDS REMAIN LIGHT EAST OR EVEN SE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE LOW. AS SUCH...WIND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS SCATTER
TONIGHT. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY BRIEF...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY AT KSWF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY...AND DEPARTS TO
THE EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW AS THEY BACK
TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...A FEW GUSTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH 25 KTS. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE
BRIEF SO WILL NOT POST ANY MARINE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN AT 3 TO 4 FEET TODAY...POSSIBLY TOUCHING
5 FT BY EVENING. THE OCEAN WATERS...PARTICULARLY EAST...MAY BUILD
TO 5 FEET LATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS. SEAS/WAVES 1 TO 2 FT
OR LESS ELSEWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. IN GENERAL...A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE TODAY
NORTH/WEST OF NYC...AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ELSEWHERE. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT PART OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT
COULD REMAIN DRY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING NEARBY
WED INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COMBO OF A RECENT FULL MOON AND SOME TIDAL PILING VIA ELEVATED
OCEAN SEAS COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE
TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/PW
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JC/GOODMAN/PW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 041107
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
707 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST 6Z MODEL RUN ALONG WITH HI RES HOURLY MODELS SUGGEST THE
BULK OF THE RAIN REMAINS CONFINED TO THE NW ZONES THIS
MORNING...LIKELY WEAKENING AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD. RAIN TO THE
NORTH OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND.

AS SUCH...WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
STILL BELIEVE THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE A FEW DROPS AT TIMES
TODAY. OVERALL...NOT A WASHOUT WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING DRY.

SIDED WITH THE COOLER GFS MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS...WITH UPPER 60S
NORTH/WEST OF NYC AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS IN TIME FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY FIREWORK DISPLAYS IN MOST PLACES...BUT WITH H7-8
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LAGGING
ACROSS MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE FCST
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THERE FOR THE EARLY EVENING. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO START...THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD IN. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
NYC METRO AND 55-6 ELSEWHERE PER A GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE BLEND.

EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH AFTERNOON FAIR WX CU
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY INLAND...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A
DEVELOPING SFC THERMAL TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALSO AID AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPS ARE CLOSE OR A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
GFS MOS...WITH LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC METRO AND THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM/DRY DAY FOR MONDAY WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.

NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL COME DURING MID WEEK...FIRST WITH A
WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP FROM THE SW...THEN WITH A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW. CONTINUE WITH CHANCE THUNDER FROM
LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE/WED ARE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE.
MORE SUNSHINE ON TUE COULD PUSH TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FCST.
WED SHOULD BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SW ALONG THE STALLING
COLD FRONT...AND EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN THU INTO THU
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDS ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

LIGHT EAST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BACK SLIGHTLY TO
THE NE AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT WINDS REMAIN LIGHT EAST OR EVEN SE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE LOW. AS SUCH...WIND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS SCATTER
TONIGHT. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY BRIEF...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY AT KSWF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY...AND DEPARTS TO
THE EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW AS THEY BACK
TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...A FEW GUSTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH 25 KTS. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE
BRIEF SO WILL NOT POST ANY MARINE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD SLIGHTLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR
LESS. THE EASTERN WATERS MAY BUILD BRIEFLY TO 5 FEET LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE LOW. SEAS/WAVES 1 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. IN GENERAL...A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE TODAY
NORTH/WEST OF NYC...AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ELSEWHERE. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT PART OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT
COULD REMAIN DRY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING NEARBY
WED INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COMBO OF A RECENT FULL MOON AND SOME TIDAL PILING VIA ELEVATED
OCEAN SEAS COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE
TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/PW
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JC/GOODMAN/PW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 041107
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
707 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST 6Z MODEL RUN ALONG WITH HI RES HOURLY MODELS SUGGEST THE
BULK OF THE RAIN REMAINS CONFINED TO THE NW ZONES THIS
MORNING...LIKELY WEAKENING AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD. RAIN TO THE
NORTH OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND.

AS SUCH...WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
STILL BELIEVE THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE A FEW DROPS AT TIMES
TODAY. OVERALL...NOT A WASHOUT WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING DRY.

SIDED WITH THE COOLER GFS MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS...WITH UPPER 60S
NORTH/WEST OF NYC AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS IN TIME FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY FIREWORK DISPLAYS IN MOST PLACES...BUT WITH H7-8
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LAGGING
ACROSS MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE FCST
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THERE FOR THE EARLY EVENING. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO START...THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD IN. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
NYC METRO AND 55-6 ELSEWHERE PER A GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE BLEND.

EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH AFTERNOON FAIR WX CU
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY INLAND...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A
DEVELOPING SFC THERMAL TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALSO AID AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPS ARE CLOSE OR A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
GFS MOS...WITH LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC METRO AND THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM/DRY DAY FOR MONDAY WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.

NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL COME DURING MID WEEK...FIRST WITH A
WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP FROM THE SW...THEN WITH A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW. CONTINUE WITH CHANCE THUNDER FROM
LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE/WED ARE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE.
MORE SUNSHINE ON TUE COULD PUSH TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FCST.
WED SHOULD BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SW ALONG THE STALLING
COLD FRONT...AND EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN THU INTO THU
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDS ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

LIGHT EAST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BACK SLIGHTLY TO
THE NE AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT WINDS REMAIN LIGHT EAST OR EVEN SE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE LOW. AS SUCH...WIND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS SCATTER
TONIGHT. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY BRIEF...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY AT KSWF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY...AND DEPARTS TO
THE EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW AS THEY BACK
TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...A FEW GUSTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH 25 KTS. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE
BRIEF SO WILL NOT POST ANY MARINE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD SLIGHTLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR
LESS. THE EASTERN WATERS MAY BUILD BRIEFLY TO 5 FEET LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE LOW. SEAS/WAVES 1 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. IN GENERAL...A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE TODAY
NORTH/WEST OF NYC...AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ELSEWHERE. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT PART OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT
COULD REMAIN DRY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING NEARBY
WED INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COMBO OF A RECENT FULL MOON AND SOME TIDAL PILING VIA ELEVATED
OCEAN SEAS COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE
TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/PW
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JC/GOODMAN/PW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 041107
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
707 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST 6Z MODEL RUN ALONG WITH HI RES HOURLY MODELS SUGGEST THE
BULK OF THE RAIN REMAINS CONFINED TO THE NW ZONES THIS
MORNING...LIKELY WEAKENING AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD. RAIN TO THE
NORTH OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND.

AS SUCH...WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
STILL BELIEVE THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE A FEW DROPS AT TIMES
TODAY. OVERALL...NOT A WASHOUT WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING DRY.

SIDED WITH THE COOLER GFS MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS...WITH UPPER 60S
NORTH/WEST OF NYC AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS IN TIME FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY FIREWORK DISPLAYS IN MOST PLACES...BUT WITH H7-8
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LAGGING
ACROSS MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE FCST
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THERE FOR THE EARLY EVENING. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO START...THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD IN. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
NYC METRO AND 55-6 ELSEWHERE PER A GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE BLEND.

EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH AFTERNOON FAIR WX CU
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY INLAND...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A
DEVELOPING SFC THERMAL TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALSO AID AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPS ARE CLOSE OR A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
GFS MOS...WITH LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC METRO AND THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM/DRY DAY FOR MONDAY WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.

NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL COME DURING MID WEEK...FIRST WITH A
WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP FROM THE SW...THEN WITH A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW. CONTINUE WITH CHANCE THUNDER FROM
LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE/WED ARE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE.
MORE SUNSHINE ON TUE COULD PUSH TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FCST.
WED SHOULD BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SW ALONG THE STALLING
COLD FRONT...AND EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN THU INTO THU
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDS ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

LIGHT EAST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BACK SLIGHTLY TO
THE NE AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT WINDS REMAIN LIGHT EAST OR EVEN SE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE LOW. AS SUCH...WIND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS SCATTER
TONIGHT. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY BRIEF...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY AT KSWF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY...AND DEPARTS TO
THE EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW AS THEY BACK
TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...A FEW GUSTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH 25 KTS. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE
BRIEF SO WILL NOT POST ANY MARINE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD SLIGHTLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR
LESS. THE EASTERN WATERS MAY BUILD BRIEFLY TO 5 FEET LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE LOW. SEAS/WAVES 1 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. IN GENERAL...A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE TODAY
NORTH/WEST OF NYC...AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ELSEWHERE. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT PART OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT
COULD REMAIN DRY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING NEARBY
WED INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COMBO OF A RECENT FULL MOON AND SOME TIDAL PILING VIA ELEVATED
OCEAN SEAS COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE
TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/PW
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JC/GOODMAN/PW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 041107
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
707 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST 6Z MODEL RUN ALONG WITH HI RES HOURLY MODELS SUGGEST THE
BULK OF THE RAIN REMAINS CONFINED TO THE NW ZONES THIS
MORNING...LIKELY WEAKENING AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD. RAIN TO THE
NORTH OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND.

AS SUCH...WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
STILL BELIEVE THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE A FEW DROPS AT TIMES
TODAY. OVERALL...NOT A WASHOUT WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING DRY.

SIDED WITH THE COOLER GFS MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS...WITH UPPER 60S
NORTH/WEST OF NYC AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS IN TIME FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY FIREWORK DISPLAYS IN MOST PLACES...BUT WITH H7-8
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LAGGING
ACROSS MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE FCST
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THERE FOR THE EARLY EVENING. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO START...THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD IN. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
NYC METRO AND 55-6 ELSEWHERE PER A GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE BLEND.

EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH AFTERNOON FAIR WX CU
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY INLAND...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A
DEVELOPING SFC THERMAL TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALSO AID AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPS ARE CLOSE OR A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
GFS MOS...WITH LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC METRO AND THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM/DRY DAY FOR MONDAY WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.

NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL COME DURING MID WEEK...FIRST WITH A
WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP FROM THE SW...THEN WITH A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW. CONTINUE WITH CHANCE THUNDER FROM
LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE/WED ARE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE.
MORE SUNSHINE ON TUE COULD PUSH TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FCST.
WED SHOULD BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SW ALONG THE STALLING
COLD FRONT...AND EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN THU INTO THU
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDS ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

LIGHT EAST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BACK SLIGHTLY TO
THE NE AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT WINDS REMAIN LIGHT EAST OR EVEN SE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE LOW. AS SUCH...WIND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS SCATTER
TONIGHT. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY BRIEF...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY AT KSWF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY...AND DEPARTS TO
THE EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW AS THEY BACK
TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...A FEW GUSTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH 25 KTS. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE
BRIEF SO WILL NOT POST ANY MARINE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD SLIGHTLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR
LESS. THE EASTERN WATERS MAY BUILD BRIEFLY TO 5 FEET LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE LOW. SEAS/WAVES 1 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. IN GENERAL...A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE TODAY
NORTH/WEST OF NYC...AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ELSEWHERE. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT PART OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT
COULD REMAIN DRY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING NEARBY
WED INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COMBO OF A RECENT FULL MOON AND SOME TIDAL PILING VIA ELEVATED
OCEAN SEAS COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE
TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/PW
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JC/GOODMAN/PW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 040756
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
356 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING OVER NE NJ TOWARD THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY ATTM...AND SKIRTING THE REST OF NYC METRO. ANOTHER AREA OF
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN EXTENDED FROM EAST CENTRAL PA SE TOWARD THE
DELMARVA...AND THIS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NYC METRO AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY THIS MORNING.

AFTERNOON FORECAST IS FRAUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY OUT
EAST. THE 00Z OKX SOUNDING SHOWED VERY DRY LOW/MID LEVELS...SO
RAIN MAY HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING INTO MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT AT LEAST INITIALLY. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RAP
MODEL HAVE BEEN COMPLETELY DRY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER ABOUT
18Z...AND THE GFS LOOKS DRY AFTER ABOUT 20Z-21Z AS IT TAKES MOST
OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO THE NORTH...BUT THESE SOLUTIONS DO
NOT LOOK REALISTIC...AS THE 00Z GFS/NAM BOTH INDICATE EVENTUAL
MOISTENING OF THE AIR MASS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND LIFT VIA A DEVELOPING EAST-WEST AXIS OF H7-8
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING
TO THE SOUTH...AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT THINK ALL AREAS HAVE
SOME CHANCE AT SEEING LIGHT RAIN FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
NOT NECESSARILY A COMPLETE WASHOUT.

SIDED WITH THE COOLER GFS MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS...WITH UPPER 60S
NORTH/WEST OF NYC AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS IN TIME FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY FIREWORK DISPLAYS IN MOST PLACES...BUT WITH H7-8
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LAGGING
ACROSS MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE FCST
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THERE FOR THE EARLY EVENING. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO START...THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD IN. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
NYC METRO AND 55-6 ELSEWHERE PER A GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE BLEND.

EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH AFTERNOON FAIR WX CU
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY INLAND...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A
DEVELOPING SFC THERMAL TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALSO AID AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPS ARE CLOSE OR A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
GFS MOS...WITH LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC METRO AND THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM/DRY DAY FOR MONDAY WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.

NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL COME DURING MID WEEK...FIRST WITH A
WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP FROM THE SW...THEN WITH A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW. CONTINUE WITH CHANCE THUNDER FROM
LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE/WED ARE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE.
MORE SUNSHINE ON TUE COULD PUSH TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FCST.
WED SHOULD BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SW ALONG THE STALLING
COLD FRONT...AND EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN THU INTO THU
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDS ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL 12Z OR SO WHEN A LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DEVELOPS. THE WIND BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY
DURING THE DAY AS A LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 15 KT ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS.

CLOUDS LOWER THIS MORNING...BUT FEEL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL. SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN COULD RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS THOUGH. TIMING FOR ANY RAIN WOULD BE IN THE MORNING NYC
AND WEST...AND IN THE AFTERNOON EAST OF NYC.

SKIES CLEAR AFTER 23-01Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY...AND DEPARTS TO
THE EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW AS THEY BACK
TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...A FEW GUSTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH 25 KTS. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE
BRIEF SO WILL NOT POST ANY MARINE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD SLIGHTLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR
LESS. THE EASTERN WATERS MAY BUILD BRIEFLY TO 5 FEET LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE LOW. SEAS/WAVES 1 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. IN GENERAL...A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE TODAY
NORTH/WEST OF NYC...AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ELSEWHERE. THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE THAT PART OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT COULD
REMAIN DRY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING NEARBY
WED INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COMBO OF A RECENT FULL MOON AND SOME TIDAL PILING VIA ELEVATED
OCEAN SEAS COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE
TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JC/GOODMAN/PW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 040756
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
356 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING OVER NE NJ TOWARD THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY ATTM...AND SKIRTING THE REST OF NYC METRO. ANOTHER AREA OF
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN EXTENDED FROM EAST CENTRAL PA SE TOWARD THE
DELMARVA...AND THIS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NYC METRO AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY THIS MORNING.

AFTERNOON FORECAST IS FRAUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY OUT
EAST. THE 00Z OKX SOUNDING SHOWED VERY DRY LOW/MID LEVELS...SO
RAIN MAY HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING INTO MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT AT LEAST INITIALLY. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RAP
MODEL HAVE BEEN COMPLETELY DRY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER ABOUT
18Z...AND THE GFS LOOKS DRY AFTER ABOUT 20Z-21Z AS IT TAKES MOST
OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO THE NORTH...BUT THESE SOLUTIONS DO
NOT LOOK REALISTIC...AS THE 00Z GFS/NAM BOTH INDICATE EVENTUAL
MOISTENING OF THE AIR MASS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND LIFT VIA A DEVELOPING EAST-WEST AXIS OF H7-8
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING
TO THE SOUTH...AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT THINK ALL AREAS HAVE
SOME CHANCE AT SEEING LIGHT RAIN FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
NOT NECESSARILY A COMPLETE WASHOUT.

SIDED WITH THE COOLER GFS MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS...WITH UPPER 60S
NORTH/WEST OF NYC AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS IN TIME FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY FIREWORK DISPLAYS IN MOST PLACES...BUT WITH H7-8
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LAGGING
ACROSS MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE FCST
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THERE FOR THE EARLY EVENING. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO START...THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD IN. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
NYC METRO AND 55-6 ELSEWHERE PER A GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE BLEND.

EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH AFTERNOON FAIR WX CU
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY INLAND...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A
DEVELOPING SFC THERMAL TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALSO AID AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPS ARE CLOSE OR A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
GFS MOS...WITH LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC METRO AND THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM/DRY DAY FOR MONDAY WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.

NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL COME DURING MID WEEK...FIRST WITH A
WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP FROM THE SW...THEN WITH A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW. CONTINUE WITH CHANCE THUNDER FROM
LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE/WED ARE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE.
MORE SUNSHINE ON TUE COULD PUSH TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FCST.
WED SHOULD BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SW ALONG THE STALLING
COLD FRONT...AND EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN THU INTO THU
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDS ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL 12Z OR SO WHEN A LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DEVELOPS. THE WIND BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY
DURING THE DAY AS A LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 15 KT ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS.

CLOUDS LOWER THIS MORNING...BUT FEEL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL. SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN COULD RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS THOUGH. TIMING FOR ANY RAIN WOULD BE IN THE MORNING NYC
AND WEST...AND IN THE AFTERNOON EAST OF NYC.

SKIES CLEAR AFTER 23-01Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY...AND DEPARTS TO
THE EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW AS THEY BACK
TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...A FEW GUSTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH 25 KTS. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE
BRIEF SO WILL NOT POST ANY MARINE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD SLIGHTLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR
LESS. THE EASTERN WATERS MAY BUILD BRIEFLY TO 5 FEET LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE LOW. SEAS/WAVES 1 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. IN GENERAL...A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE TODAY
NORTH/WEST OF NYC...AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ELSEWHERE. THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE THAT PART OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT COULD
REMAIN DRY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING NEARBY
WED INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COMBO OF A RECENT FULL MOON AND SOME TIDAL PILING VIA ELEVATED
OCEAN SEAS COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE
TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JC/GOODMAN/PW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 040541
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
141 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY...AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...THEN
SOUTH...THEN SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN BUILDS ACROSS FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL THEN
LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGERS
INTO THURSDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG IT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXITS THE NE TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

COULD SEE SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING RAINS MAKE IT INTO FAR W/SW
ZONES LATE TONIGHT...ADDRESS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND
HAS BEEN DISCARDED IN THE SHORT TERM.

NON-GFS CONSENSUS SOLUTION TRACKS A LOW S OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY
MORNING...AND JUST S THEN E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN NOW FARTHER S AND FASTER TRACK OF LOW...AND THAT
THE NAM AND CMC KEEP THE AREA DRY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT DRY NAM AND CMC SOLUTION
COMPLETELY EITHER. HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER S ZONES CLOSEST TO LOW
AND LOWEST POPS OVER N ZONES. RAIN WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING
AS THE COASTAL LOW GOES BY...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE 700 HPA TROUGH AXIS...AND A 500
HPA SHORTWAVE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON IS OVER W
ZONES.

FOR NOW...DO HAVE LINGERING CHANCE POPS EARLY SAT EVENING OVER FAR
E ZONES...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH
RIDGING BUILDING IN AT 700 HPA SERVING TO COUNTER 500 HPA TROUGH
AXIS CROSSING AREA.

FOR HIGHS SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...IF THE NAM AND CMC ARE CORRECT AND THINGS
REMAIN DRY...THEN HIGHS COULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTS EAST WITH
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING FOLLOWING THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY FROM THIS. PREFERRED THE WARMER NAM MOS FOR HIGHS BASED ON
FORECAST 850MB TEMPS...AND EVEN MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS OVER LONG ISLAND SINCE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE PLENTY
OF TIME TO WARM UP BEFORE ANY SEA BREEZE EFFECTS KICK IN...AND
WATER TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY UP TO AROUND 70.

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR MONDAY WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. FOR HIGHS...HAVE GONE ABOVE AVAILABLE MOS
GUIDANCE...NOTING RISING HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES. THIS
COULD BE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY SUBSIDENCE...AND FOR COASTAL AREAS...A
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW ALL DAY AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS GENERALLY WILL
BE THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SUNDAY`S FOR COASTAL AREAS...AND A
LITTLE ABOVE SUNDAY`S INLAND.

MODELS ARE THEN IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF TWO
SURFACE FEATURES THAT COULD BRING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD. THE FIRST IS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OR
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHIFTING IN FROM THE SW. THE SECOND IS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW. WILL CAP POPS AT CHANCE
LATE MON NIGHT-WEDS NIGHT...BUT THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE OF RAINFALL
AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE WEDS AFTERNOON/WEDS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ENOUGH CAPE IS FORECAST FOR A CHANCE
OF THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDS ARE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE. MORE
SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY COULD PUSH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE COOLER OF
THE TWO DAYS WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF HIGHER CLOUD COVER.

MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THIS POINT...WITH ECMWF AND CMC DEVELOPING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SW ALONG THE STALLING COLD FRONT AND
EVENTUALLY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS
KEEPS US DRY WITH A LACK OF LOW DEVELOPMENT. WILL THEREFORE JUST
GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THEN KEEP FRIDAY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL 12Z OR SO WHEN A LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DEVELOPS. THE WIND BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY
DURING THE DAY AS A LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 15 KT ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS.

CLOUDS LOWER THIS MORNING...BUT FEEL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL. SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN COULD RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS THOUGH. TIMING FOR ANY RAIN WOULD BE IN THE MORNING NYC
AND WEST...AND IN THE AFTERNOON EAST OF NYC.

SKIES CLEAR AFTER 23-01Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT INCREASES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS...AND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT ON THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. SEAS
COULD ALSO BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS IS BELOW THE REQUIRED 80
PERCENT NEEDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THERE IS STILL TO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A COASTAL
LOW FORECAST TO PASS TO THE S THEN E OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THE AREA COULD REMAIN DRY IN
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS ALSO AN EVEN SMALLER CHANCE THE AREA
COULD RECEIVE AROUND DOUBLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN THIS TIME
FRAME.

IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 040541
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
141 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY...AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...THEN
SOUTH...THEN SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN BUILDS ACROSS FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL THEN
LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGERS
INTO THURSDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG IT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXITS THE NE TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

COULD SEE SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING RAINS MAKE IT INTO FAR W/SW
ZONES LATE TONIGHT...ADDRESS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND
HAS BEEN DISCARDED IN THE SHORT TERM.

NON-GFS CONSENSUS SOLUTION TRACKS A LOW S OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY
MORNING...AND JUST S THEN E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN NOW FARTHER S AND FASTER TRACK OF LOW...AND THAT
THE NAM AND CMC KEEP THE AREA DRY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT DRY NAM AND CMC SOLUTION
COMPLETELY EITHER. HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER S ZONES CLOSEST TO LOW
AND LOWEST POPS OVER N ZONES. RAIN WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING
AS THE COASTAL LOW GOES BY...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE 700 HPA TROUGH AXIS...AND A 500
HPA SHORTWAVE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON IS OVER W
ZONES.

FOR NOW...DO HAVE LINGERING CHANCE POPS EARLY SAT EVENING OVER FAR
E ZONES...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH
RIDGING BUILDING IN AT 700 HPA SERVING TO COUNTER 500 HPA TROUGH
AXIS CROSSING AREA.

FOR HIGHS SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...IF THE NAM AND CMC ARE CORRECT AND THINGS
REMAIN DRY...THEN HIGHS COULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTS EAST WITH
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING FOLLOWING THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY FROM THIS. PREFERRED THE WARMER NAM MOS FOR HIGHS BASED ON
FORECAST 850MB TEMPS...AND EVEN MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS OVER LONG ISLAND SINCE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE PLENTY
OF TIME TO WARM UP BEFORE ANY SEA BREEZE EFFECTS KICK IN...AND
WATER TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY UP TO AROUND 70.

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR MONDAY WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. FOR HIGHS...HAVE GONE ABOVE AVAILABLE MOS
GUIDANCE...NOTING RISING HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES. THIS
COULD BE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY SUBSIDENCE...AND FOR COASTAL AREAS...A
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW ALL DAY AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS GENERALLY WILL
BE THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SUNDAY`S FOR COASTAL AREAS...AND A
LITTLE ABOVE SUNDAY`S INLAND.

MODELS ARE THEN IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF TWO
SURFACE FEATURES THAT COULD BRING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD. THE FIRST IS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OR
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHIFTING IN FROM THE SW. THE SECOND IS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW. WILL CAP POPS AT CHANCE
LATE MON NIGHT-WEDS NIGHT...BUT THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE OF RAINFALL
AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE WEDS AFTERNOON/WEDS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ENOUGH CAPE IS FORECAST FOR A CHANCE
OF THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDS ARE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE. MORE
SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY COULD PUSH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE COOLER OF
THE TWO DAYS WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF HIGHER CLOUD COVER.

MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THIS POINT...WITH ECMWF AND CMC DEVELOPING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SW ALONG THE STALLING COLD FRONT AND
EVENTUALLY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS
KEEPS US DRY WITH A LACK OF LOW DEVELOPMENT. WILL THEREFORE JUST
GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THEN KEEP FRIDAY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL 12Z OR SO WHEN A LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DEVELOPS. THE WIND BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY
DURING THE DAY AS A LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 15 KT ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS.

CLOUDS LOWER THIS MORNING...BUT FEEL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL. SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN COULD RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS THOUGH. TIMING FOR ANY RAIN WOULD BE IN THE MORNING NYC
AND WEST...AND IN THE AFTERNOON EAST OF NYC.

SKIES CLEAR AFTER 23-01Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT INCREASES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS...AND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT ON THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. SEAS
COULD ALSO BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS IS BELOW THE REQUIRED 80
PERCENT NEEDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THERE IS STILL TO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A COASTAL
LOW FORECAST TO PASS TO THE S THEN E OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THE AREA COULD REMAIN DRY IN
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS ALSO AN EVEN SMALLER CHANCE THE AREA
COULD RECEIVE AROUND DOUBLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN THIS TIME
FRAME.

IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 040300
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY...AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...THEN
SOUTH...THEN SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN BUILDS ACROSS FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL THEN
LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGERS
INTO THURSDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG IT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXITS THE NE TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

COULD SEE SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING RAINS MAKE IT INTO FAR W/SW
ZONES LATE TONIGHT...ADDRESS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND
HAS BEEN DISCARDED IN THE SHORT TERM.

NON-GFS CONSENSUS SOLUTION TRACKS A LOW S OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY
MORNING...AND JUST S THEN E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN NOW FARTHER S AND FASTER TRACK OF LOW...AND THAT
THE NAM AND CMC KEEP THE AREA DRY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT DRY NAM AND CMC SOLUTION
COMPLETELY EITHER. HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER S ZONES CLOSEST TO LOW
AND LOWEST POPS OVER N ZONES. RAIN WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING
AS THE COASTAL LOW GOES BY...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE 700 HPA TROUGH AXIS...AND A 500
HPA SHORTWAVE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON IS OVER W
ZONES.

FOR NOW...DO HAVE LINGERING CHANCE POPS EARLY SAT EVENING OVER FAR
E ZONES...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH
RIDGING BUILDING IN AT 700 HPA SERVING TO COUNTER 500 HPA TROUGH
AXIS CROSSING AREA.

FOR HIGHS SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...IF THE NAM AND CMC ARE CORRECT AND THINGS
REMAIN DRY...THEN HIGHS COULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTS EAST WITH
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING FOLLOWING THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY FROM THIS. PREFERRED THE WARMER NAM MOS FOR HIGHS BASED ON
FORECAST 850MB TEMPS...AND EVEN MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS OVER LONG ISLAND SINCE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE PLENTY
OF TIME TO WARM UP BEFORE ANY SEA BREEZE EFFECTS KICK IN...AND
WATER TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY UP TO AROUND 70.

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR MONDAY WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. FOR HIGHS...HAVE GONE ABOVE AVAILABLE MOS
GUIDANCE...NOTING RISING HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES. THIS
COULD BE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY SUBSIDENCE...AND FOR COASTAL AREAS...A
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW ALL DAY AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS GENERALLY WILL
BE THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SUNDAYS FOR COASTAL AREAS...AND A
LITTLE ABOVE SUNDAYS INLAND.

MODELS ARE THEN IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF TWO
SURFACE FEATURES THAT COULD BRING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD. THE FIRST IS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OR
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHIFTING IN FROM THE SW. THE SECOND IS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW. WILL CAP POPS AT CHANCE
LATE MON NIGHT-WEDS NIGHT...BUT THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE OF RAINFALL
AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE WEDS AFTERNOON/WEDS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ENOUGH CAPE IS FORECAST FOR A CHANCE
OF THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDS ARE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE. MORE
SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY COULD PUSH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE COOLER OF
THE TWO DAYS WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF HIGHER CLOUD COVER.

MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THIS POINT...WITH ECMWF AND CMC DEVELOPING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SW ALONG THE STALLING COLD FRONT AND
EVENTUALLY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS
KEEPS US DRY WITH A LACK OF LOW DEVELOPMENT. WILL THEREFORE JUST
GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THEN KEEP FRIDAY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OVERNIGHT AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE LOW
TRACKS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AND OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK OF
THE LOW. A FARTHER NORTH TRACK WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CEILINGS AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. A FARTHER
TRACK TO THE SOUTH HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE TERMINALS TO BE DRY
THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE PROB 30 GROUP WITH VFR
CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL TOWARD MORNING WHEN A LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DEVELOPS. THE WIND BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY
DURING THE DAY AS A LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. WIND FORECAST WILL ALSO
DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. HOWEVER...WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE 10
KT OR LESS. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 15 KT ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS.

GENERALLY LOW TO MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH UNCERTAINTY ON
TRACK OF THE LOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT INCREASES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS...AND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT ON THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. SEAS
COULD ALSO BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS IS BELOW THE REQUIRED 80
PERCENT NEEDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THERE IS STILL TO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A COASTAL
LOW FORECAST TO PASS TO THE S THEN E OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THE AREA COULD REMAIN DRY IN
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS ALSO AN EVEN SMALLER CHANCE THE AREA
COULD RECEIVE AROUND DOUBLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN THIS TIME
FRAME.

IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 040300
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY...AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...THEN
SOUTH...THEN SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN BUILDS ACROSS FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL THEN
LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGERS
INTO THURSDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG IT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXITS THE NE TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

COULD SEE SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING RAINS MAKE IT INTO FAR W/SW
ZONES LATE TONIGHT...ADDRESS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND
HAS BEEN DISCARDED IN THE SHORT TERM.

NON-GFS CONSENSUS SOLUTION TRACKS A LOW S OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY
MORNING...AND JUST S THEN E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN NOW FARTHER S AND FASTER TRACK OF LOW...AND THAT
THE NAM AND CMC KEEP THE AREA DRY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT DRY NAM AND CMC SOLUTION
COMPLETELY EITHER. HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER S ZONES CLOSEST TO LOW
AND LOWEST POPS OVER N ZONES. RAIN WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING
AS THE COASTAL LOW GOES BY...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE 700 HPA TROUGH AXIS...AND A 500
HPA SHORTWAVE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON IS OVER W
ZONES.

FOR NOW...DO HAVE LINGERING CHANCE POPS EARLY SAT EVENING OVER FAR
E ZONES...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH
RIDGING BUILDING IN AT 700 HPA SERVING TO COUNTER 500 HPA TROUGH
AXIS CROSSING AREA.

FOR HIGHS SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...IF THE NAM AND CMC ARE CORRECT AND THINGS
REMAIN DRY...THEN HIGHS COULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTS EAST WITH
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING FOLLOWING THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY FROM THIS. PREFERRED THE WARMER NAM MOS FOR HIGHS BASED ON
FORECAST 850MB TEMPS...AND EVEN MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS OVER LONG ISLAND SINCE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE PLENTY
OF TIME TO WARM UP BEFORE ANY SEA BREEZE EFFECTS KICK IN...AND
WATER TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY UP TO AROUND 70.

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR MONDAY WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. FOR HIGHS...HAVE GONE ABOVE AVAILABLE MOS
GUIDANCE...NOTING RISING HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES. THIS
COULD BE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY SUBSIDENCE...AND FOR COASTAL AREAS...A
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW ALL DAY AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS GENERALLY WILL
BE THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SUNDAYS FOR COASTAL AREAS...AND A
LITTLE ABOVE SUNDAYS INLAND.

MODELS ARE THEN IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF TWO
SURFACE FEATURES THAT COULD BRING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD. THE FIRST IS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OR
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHIFTING IN FROM THE SW. THE SECOND IS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW. WILL CAP POPS AT CHANCE
LATE MON NIGHT-WEDS NIGHT...BUT THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE OF RAINFALL
AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE WEDS AFTERNOON/WEDS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ENOUGH CAPE IS FORECAST FOR A CHANCE
OF THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDS ARE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE. MORE
SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY COULD PUSH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE COOLER OF
THE TWO DAYS WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF HIGHER CLOUD COVER.

MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THIS POINT...WITH ECMWF AND CMC DEVELOPING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SW ALONG THE STALLING COLD FRONT AND
EVENTUALLY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS
KEEPS US DRY WITH A LACK OF LOW DEVELOPMENT. WILL THEREFORE JUST
GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THEN KEEP FRIDAY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OVERNIGHT AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE LOW
TRACKS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AND OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK OF
THE LOW. A FARTHER NORTH TRACK WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CEILINGS AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. A FARTHER
TRACK TO THE SOUTH HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE TERMINALS TO BE DRY
THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE PROB 30 GROUP WITH VFR
CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL TOWARD MORNING WHEN A LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DEVELOPS. THE WIND BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY
DURING THE DAY AS A LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. WIND FORECAST WILL ALSO
DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. HOWEVER...WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE 10
KT OR LESS. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 15 KT ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS.

GENERALLY LOW TO MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH UNCERTAINTY ON
TRACK OF THE LOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT INCREASES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS...AND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT ON THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. SEAS
COULD ALSO BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS IS BELOW THE REQUIRED 80
PERCENT NEEDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THERE IS STILL TO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A COASTAL
LOW FORECAST TO PASS TO THE S THEN E OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THE AREA COULD REMAIN DRY IN
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS ALSO AN EVEN SMALLER CHANCE THE AREA
COULD RECEIVE AROUND DOUBLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN THIS TIME
FRAME.

IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 040008 AAC
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
808 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY...AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...THEN
SOUTH...THEN SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN BUILDS ACROSS FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL THEN
LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGERS
INTO THURSDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG IT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
IN FROM THE SW ARE SUFFICIENTLY OPAQUE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE..OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN EXITS TO
THE NE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

COULD SEE SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING RAINS MAKE IT INTO FAR W/SW
ZONES LATE TONIGHT...ADDRESS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE. LOWS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND
HAS BEEN DISCARDED IN THE SHORT TERM.

NON-GFS CONSENSUS SOLUTION TRACKS A LOW S OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY
MORNING...AND JUST S THEN E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN NOW FARTHER S AND FASTER TRACK OF LOW...AND THAT
THE NAM AND CMC KEEP THE AREA DRY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT DRY NAM AND CMC SOLUTION
COMPLETELY EITHER. HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER S ZONES CLOSEST TO LOW
AND LOWEST POPS OVER N ZONES. RAIN WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING
AS THE COASTAL LOW GOES BY...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE 700 HPA TROUGH AXIS...AND A 500
HPA SHORTWAVE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON IS OVER W
ZONES.

FOR NOW...DO HAVE LINGERING CHANCE POPS EARLY SAT EVENING OVER FAR
E ZONES...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH
RIDGING BUILDING IN AT 700 HPA SERVING TO COUNTER 500 HPA TROUGH
AXIS CROSSING AREA.

FOR HIGHS SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...IF THE NAM AND CMC ARE CORRECT AND THINGS
REMAIN DRY...THEN HIGHS COULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTS EAST WITH
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING FOLLOWING THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY FROM THIS. PREFERRED THE WARMER NAM MOS FOR HIGHS BASED ON
FORECAST 850MB TEMPS...AND EVEN MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS OVER LONG ISLAND SINCE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE PLENTY
OF TIME TO WARM UP BEFORE ANY SEA BREEZE EFFECTS KICK IN...AND
WATER TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY UP TO AROUND 70.

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR MONDAY WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. FOR HIGHS...HAVE GONE ABOVE AVAILABLE MOS
GUIDANCE...NOTING RISING HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES. THIS
COULD BE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY SUBSIDENCE...AND FOR COASTAL AREAS...A
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW ALL DAY AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS GENERALLY WILL
BE THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SUNDAYS FOR COASTAL AREAS...AND A
LITTLE ABOVE SUNDAYS INLAND.

MODELS ARE THEN IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF TWO
SURFACE FEATURES THAT COULD BRING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD. THE FIRST IS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OR
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHIFTING IN FROM THE SW. THE SECOND IS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW. WILL CAP POPS AT CHANCE
LATE MON NIGHT-WEDS NIGHT...BUT THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE OF RAINFALL
AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE WEDS AFTERNOON/WEDS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ENOUGH CAPE IS FORECAST FOR A CHANCE
OF THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDS ARE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE. MORE
SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY COULD PUSH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE COOLER OF
THE TWO DAYS WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF HIGHER CLOUD COVER.

MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THIS POINT...WITH ECMWF AND CMC DEVELOPING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SW ALONG THE STALLING COLD FRONT AND
EVENTUALLY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS
KEEPS US DRY WITH A LACK OF LOW DEVELOPMENT. WILL THEREFORE JUST
GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THEN KEEP FRIDAY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE LOW TRACKS
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AND OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK OF
THE LOW. A FARTHER NORTH TRACK WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CEILINGS AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. A FARTHER
TRACK TO THE SOUTH HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE TERMINALS TO BE DRY
THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE PROB 30 GROUP WITH VFR
CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

SEA BREEZES END 00Z TO 02Z WITH WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL TOWARD
MORNING. A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DEVELOPS...BECOMING MORE
NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. WIND
FORECAST WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. HOWEVER...WIND IS
EXPECTED TO BE 10 KT OR LESS. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 15 KT ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS.

GENERALLY LOW TO MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH UNCERTAINTY ON
TRACK OF THE LOW.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
RAIN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
RAIN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
RAIN.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
RAIN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
RAIN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
RAIN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT INCREASES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS...AND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT ON THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. SEAS
COULD ALSO BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS IS BELOW THE REQUIRED 80
PERCENT NEEDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THERE IS STILL TO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A COASTAL
LOW FORECAST TO PASS TO THE S THEN E OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THE AREA COULD REMAIN DRY IN
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS ALSO AN EVEN SMALLER CHANCE THE AREA
COULD RECEIVE AROUND DOUBLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN THIS TIME
FRAME.

IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 040008 AAC
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
808 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY...AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...THEN
SOUTH...THEN SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN BUILDS ACROSS FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL THEN
LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGERS
INTO THURSDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG IT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
IN FROM THE SW ARE SUFFICIENTLY OPAQUE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE..OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN EXITS TO
THE NE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

COULD SEE SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING RAINS MAKE IT INTO FAR W/SW
ZONES LATE TONIGHT...ADDRESS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE. LOWS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND
HAS BEEN DISCARDED IN THE SHORT TERM.

NON-GFS CONSENSUS SOLUTION TRACKS A LOW S OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY
MORNING...AND JUST S THEN E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN NOW FARTHER S AND FASTER TRACK OF LOW...AND THAT
THE NAM AND CMC KEEP THE AREA DRY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT DRY NAM AND CMC SOLUTION
COMPLETELY EITHER. HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER S ZONES CLOSEST TO LOW
AND LOWEST POPS OVER N ZONES. RAIN WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING
AS THE COASTAL LOW GOES BY...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE 700 HPA TROUGH AXIS...AND A 500
HPA SHORTWAVE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON IS OVER W
ZONES.

FOR NOW...DO HAVE LINGERING CHANCE POPS EARLY SAT EVENING OVER FAR
E ZONES...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH
RIDGING BUILDING IN AT 700 HPA SERVING TO COUNTER 500 HPA TROUGH
AXIS CROSSING AREA.

FOR HIGHS SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...IF THE NAM AND CMC ARE CORRECT AND THINGS
REMAIN DRY...THEN HIGHS COULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTS EAST WITH
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING FOLLOWING THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY FROM THIS. PREFERRED THE WARMER NAM MOS FOR HIGHS BASED ON
FORECAST 850MB TEMPS...AND EVEN MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS OVER LONG ISLAND SINCE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE PLENTY
OF TIME TO WARM UP BEFORE ANY SEA BREEZE EFFECTS KICK IN...AND
WATER TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY UP TO AROUND 70.

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR MONDAY WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. FOR HIGHS...HAVE GONE ABOVE AVAILABLE MOS
GUIDANCE...NOTING RISING HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES. THIS
COULD BE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY SUBSIDENCE...AND FOR COASTAL AREAS...A
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW ALL DAY AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS GENERALLY WILL
BE THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SUNDAYS FOR COASTAL AREAS...AND A
LITTLE ABOVE SUNDAYS INLAND.

MODELS ARE THEN IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF TWO
SURFACE FEATURES THAT COULD BRING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD. THE FIRST IS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OR
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHIFTING IN FROM THE SW. THE SECOND IS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW. WILL CAP POPS AT CHANCE
LATE MON NIGHT-WEDS NIGHT...BUT THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE OF RAINFALL
AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE WEDS AFTERNOON/WEDS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ENOUGH CAPE IS FORECAST FOR A CHANCE
OF THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDS ARE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE. MORE
SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY COULD PUSH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE COOLER OF
THE TWO DAYS WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF HIGHER CLOUD COVER.

MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THIS POINT...WITH ECMWF AND CMC DEVELOPING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SW ALONG THE STALLING COLD FRONT AND
EVENTUALLY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS
KEEPS US DRY WITH A LACK OF LOW DEVELOPMENT. WILL THEREFORE JUST
GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THEN KEEP FRIDAY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE LOW TRACKS
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AND OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK OF
THE LOW. A FARTHER NORTH TRACK WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CEILINGS AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. A FARTHER
TRACK TO THE SOUTH HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE TERMINALS TO BE DRY
THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE PROB 30 GROUP WITH VFR
CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

SEA BREEZES END 00Z TO 02Z WITH WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL TOWARD
MORNING. A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DEVELOPS...BECOMING MORE
NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. WIND
FORECAST WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. HOWEVER...WIND IS
EXPECTED TO BE 10 KT OR LESS. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 15 KT ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS.

GENERALLY LOW TO MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH UNCERTAINTY ON
TRACK OF THE LOW.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
RAIN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
RAIN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
RAIN.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
RAIN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
RAIN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
RAIN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT INCREASES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS...AND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT ON THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. SEAS
COULD ALSO BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS IS BELOW THE REQUIRED 80
PERCENT NEEDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THERE IS STILL TO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A COASTAL
LOW FORECAST TO PASS TO THE S THEN E OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THE AREA COULD REMAIN DRY IN
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS ALSO AN EVEN SMALLER CHANCE THE AREA
COULD RECEIVE AROUND DOUBLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN THIS TIME
FRAME.

IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 031956 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
356 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY...AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...THEN
SOUTH...THEN SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN BUILDS ACROSS FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL THEN
LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGERS
INTO THURSDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG IT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN EXITS TO
THE NE OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...GIVEN LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SEE SOME
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN ZONES.

COULD SEE SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING RAINS MAKE IT INTO FAR W/SW
ZONES LATE TONIGHT...ADDRESS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE...WEIGHED
TOWARDS COLDER SOLUTION WHERE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.
LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND
HAS BEEN DISCARDED IN THE SHORT TERM.

NON-GFS CONSENSUS SOLUTION TRACKS A LOW S OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY
MORNING...AND JUST S THEN E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN NOW FARTHER S AND FASTER TRACK OF LOW...AND THAT
THE NAM AND CMC KEEP THE AREA DRY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT DRY NAM AND CMC SOLUTION
COMPLETELY EITHER. HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER S ZONES CLOSEST TO LOW
AND LOWEST POPS OVER N ZONES. RAIN WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING
AS THE COASTAL LOW GOES BY...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE 700 HPA TROUGH AXIS...AND A 500
HPA SHORTWAVE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON IS OVER W
ZONES.

FOR NOW...DO HAVE LINGERING CHANCE POPS EARLY SAT EVENING OVER FAR
E ZONES...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH
RIDGING BUILDING IN AT 700 HPA SERVING TO COUNTER 500 HPA TROUGH
AXIS CROSSING AREA.

FOR HIGHS SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...IF THE NAM AND CMC ARE CORRECT AND THINGS
REMAIN DRY...THEN HIGHS COULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTS EAST WITH
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING FOLLOWING THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY FROM THIS. PREFERRED THE WARMER NAM MOS FOR HIGHS BASED ON
FORECAST 850MB TEMPS...AND EVEN MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS OVER LONG ISLAND SINCE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE PLENTY
OF TIME TO WARM UP BEFORE ANY SEA BREEZE EFFECTS KICK IN...AND
WATER TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY UP TO AROUND 70.

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR MONDAY WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. FOR HIGHS...HAVE GONE ABOVE AVAILABLE MOS
GUIDANCE...NOTING RISING HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES. THIS
COULD BE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY SUBSIDENCE...AND FOR COASTAL AREAS...A
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW ALL DAY AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS GENERALLY WILL
BE THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SUNDAYS FOR COASTAL AREAS...AND A
LITTLE ABOVE SUNDAYS INLAND.

MODELS ARE THEN IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF TWO
SURFACE FEATURES THAT COULD BRING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD. THE FIRST IS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OR
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHIFTING IN FROM THE SW. THE SECOND IS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW. WILL CAP POPS AT CHANCE
LATE MON NIGHT-WEDS NIGHT...BUT THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE OF RAINFALL
AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE WEDS AFTERNOON/WEDS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ENOUGH CAPE IS FORECAST FOR A CHANCE
OF THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDS ARE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE. MORE
SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY COULD PUSH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE COOLER OF
THE TWO DAYS WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF HIGHER CLOUD COVER.

MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THIS POINT...WITH ECMWF AND CMC DEVELOPING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SW ALONG THE STALLING COLD FRONT AND
EVENTUALLY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS
KEEPS US DRY WITH A LACK OF LOW DEVELOPMENT. WILL THEREFORE JUST
GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THEN KEEP FRIDAY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT.

VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND
FORECASTS. SEABREEZES HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS THROUGH 21Z.

VFR TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KT AT MOST IF NOT
ALL TERMINALS.

ON SATURDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN
LIGHT RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. IF THE LOW IS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...THEN MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR
NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN. E/NE WINDS
10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS
DIMINISHING SAT EVE.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT INCREASES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS...AND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT ON THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. SEAS
COULD ALSO BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS IS BELOW THE REQUIRED 80
PERCENT NEEDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THERE IS STILL TO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A COASTAL
LOW FORECAST TO PASS TO THE S THEN E OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THE AREA COULD REMAIN DRY IN
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS ALSO AN EVEN SMALLER CHANCE THE AREA
COULD RECEIVE AROUND DOUBLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN THIS TIME
FRAME.

IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT THIS
TIME.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MALOIT/JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031956 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
356 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY...AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...THEN
SOUTH...THEN SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN BUILDS ACROSS FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL THEN
LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGERS
INTO THURSDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG IT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN EXITS TO
THE NE OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...GIVEN LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SEE SOME
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN ZONES.

COULD SEE SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING RAINS MAKE IT INTO FAR W/SW
ZONES LATE TONIGHT...ADDRESS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE...WEIGHED
TOWARDS COLDER SOLUTION WHERE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.
LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND
HAS BEEN DISCARDED IN THE SHORT TERM.

NON-GFS CONSENSUS SOLUTION TRACKS A LOW S OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY
MORNING...AND JUST S THEN E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN NOW FARTHER S AND FASTER TRACK OF LOW...AND THAT
THE NAM AND CMC KEEP THE AREA DRY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT DRY NAM AND CMC SOLUTION
COMPLETELY EITHER. HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER S ZONES CLOSEST TO LOW
AND LOWEST POPS OVER N ZONES. RAIN WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING
AS THE COASTAL LOW GOES BY...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE 700 HPA TROUGH AXIS...AND A 500
HPA SHORTWAVE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON IS OVER W
ZONES.

FOR NOW...DO HAVE LINGERING CHANCE POPS EARLY SAT EVENING OVER FAR
E ZONES...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH
RIDGING BUILDING IN AT 700 HPA SERVING TO COUNTER 500 HPA TROUGH
AXIS CROSSING AREA.

FOR HIGHS SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...IF THE NAM AND CMC ARE CORRECT AND THINGS
REMAIN DRY...THEN HIGHS COULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTS EAST WITH
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING FOLLOWING THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY FROM THIS. PREFERRED THE WARMER NAM MOS FOR HIGHS BASED ON
FORECAST 850MB TEMPS...AND EVEN MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS OVER LONG ISLAND SINCE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE PLENTY
OF TIME TO WARM UP BEFORE ANY SEA BREEZE EFFECTS KICK IN...AND
WATER TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY UP TO AROUND 70.

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR MONDAY WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. FOR HIGHS...HAVE GONE ABOVE AVAILABLE MOS
GUIDANCE...NOTING RISING HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES. THIS
COULD BE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY SUBSIDENCE...AND FOR COASTAL AREAS...A
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW ALL DAY AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS GENERALLY WILL
BE THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SUNDAYS FOR COASTAL AREAS...AND A
LITTLE ABOVE SUNDAYS INLAND.

MODELS ARE THEN IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF TWO
SURFACE FEATURES THAT COULD BRING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD. THE FIRST IS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OR
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHIFTING IN FROM THE SW. THE SECOND IS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW. WILL CAP POPS AT CHANCE
LATE MON NIGHT-WEDS NIGHT...BUT THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE OF RAINFALL
AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE WEDS AFTERNOON/WEDS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ENOUGH CAPE IS FORECAST FOR A CHANCE
OF THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDS ARE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE. MORE
SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY COULD PUSH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE COOLER OF
THE TWO DAYS WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF HIGHER CLOUD COVER.

MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THIS POINT...WITH ECMWF AND CMC DEVELOPING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SW ALONG THE STALLING COLD FRONT AND
EVENTUALLY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS
KEEPS US DRY WITH A LACK OF LOW DEVELOPMENT. WILL THEREFORE JUST
GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THEN KEEP FRIDAY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT.

VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND
FORECASTS. SEABREEZES HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS THROUGH 21Z.

VFR TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KT AT MOST IF NOT
ALL TERMINALS.

ON SATURDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN
LIGHT RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. IF THE LOW IS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...THEN MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR
NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN. E/NE WINDS
10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS
DIMINISHING SAT EVE.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT INCREASES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS...AND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT ON THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. SEAS
COULD ALSO BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS IS BELOW THE REQUIRED 80
PERCENT NEEDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THERE IS STILL TO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A COASTAL
LOW FORECAST TO PASS TO THE S THEN E OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THE AREA COULD REMAIN DRY IN
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS ALSO AN EVEN SMALLER CHANCE THE AREA
COULD RECEIVE AROUND DOUBLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN THIS TIME
FRAME.

IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT THIS
TIME.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MALOIT/JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 031956
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
356 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY...AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...THEN
SOUTH...THEN SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY...THEN BUILDS ACROSS FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT
SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGERS INTO
THURSDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG IT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN EXITS TO
THE NE OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...GIVEN LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SEE SOME
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN ZONES.

COULD SEE SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING RAINS MAKE IT INTO FAR W/SW
ZONES LATE TONIGHT...ADDRESS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE...WEIGHED
TOWARDS COLDER SOLUTION WHERE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.
LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND
HAS BEEN DISCARDED IN THE SHORT TERM.

NON-GFS CONSENSUS SOLUTION TRACKS A LOW S OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY
MORNING...AND JUST S THEN E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN NOW FARTHER S AND FASTER TRACK OF LOW...AND THAT
THE NAM AND CMC KEEP THE AREA DRY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT DRY NAM AND CMC SOLUTION
COMPLETELY EITHER. HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER S ZONES CLOSEST TO LOW
AND LOWEST POPS OVER N ZONES. RAIN WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING
AS THE COASTAL LOW GOES BY...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE 700 HPA TROUGH AXIS...AND A 500
HPA SHORTWAVE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON IS OVER W
ZONES.

FOR NOW...DO HAVE LINGERING CHANCE POPS EARLY SAT EVENING OVER FAR
E ZONES...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH
RIDGING BUILDING IN AT 700 HPA SERVING TO COUNTER 500 HPA TROUGH
AXIS CROSSING AREA.

FOR HIGHS SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...IF THE NAM AND CMC ARE CORRECT AND THINGS
REMAIN DRY...THEN HIGHS COULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTS EAST WITH
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING FOLLOWING THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY FROM THIS. PREFERRED THE WARMER NAM MOS FOR HIGHS BASED ON
FORECAST 850MB TEMPS...AND EVEN MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS OVER LONG ISLAND SINCE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE PLENTY
OF TIME TO WARM UP BEFORE ANY SEA BREEZE EFFECTS KICK IN...AND
WATER TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY UP TO AROUND 70.

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR MONDAY WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. FOR HIGHS...HAVE GONE ABOVE AVAILABLE MOS
GUIDANCE...NOTING RISING HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES. THIS
COULD BE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY SUBSIDENCE...AND FOR COASTAL AREAS...A
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW ALL DAY AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS GENERALLY WILL
BE THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SUNDAYS FOR COASTAL AREAS...AND A
LITTLE ABOVE SUNDAYS INLAND.

MODELS ARE THEN IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF TWO
SURFACE FEATURES THAT COULD BRING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD. THE FIRST IS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OR
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHIFTING IN FROM THE SW. THE SECOND IS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW. WILL CAP POPS AT CHANCE
LATE MON NIGHT-WEDS NIGHT...BUT THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE OF RAINFALL
AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE WEDS AFTERNOON/WEDS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ENOUGH CAPE IS FORECAST FOR A CHANCE
OF THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDS ARE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE. MORE
SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY COULD PUSH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE COOLER OF
THE TWO DAYS WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF HIGHER CLOUD COVER.

MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THIS POINT...WITH ECMWF AND CMC DEVELOPING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SW ALONG THE STALLING COLD FRONT AND
EVENTUALLY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS
KEEPS US DRY WITH A LACK OF LOW DEVELOPMENT. WILL THEREFORE JUST
GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THEN KEEP FRIDAY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT.

VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND
FORECASTS. SEABREEZES HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS THROUGH 21Z.

VFR TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KT AT MOST IF NOT
ALL TERMINALS.

ON SATURDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN
LIGHT RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. IF THE LOW IS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...THEN MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR
NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN. E/NE WINDS
10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS
DIMINISHING SAT EVE.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT INCREASES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS...AND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT ON THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. SEAS
COULD ALSO BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS IS BELOW THE REQUIRED 80
PERCENT NEEDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THERE IS STILL TO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A COASTAL
LOW FORECAST TO PASS TO THE S THEN E OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THE AREA COULD REMAIN DRY IN
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS ALSO AN EVEN SMALLER CHANCE THE AREA
COULD RECEIVE AROUND DOUBLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN THIS TIME
FRAME.

IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT THIS
TIME.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MALOIT/JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 031956
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
356 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY...AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...THEN
SOUTH...THEN SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY...THEN BUILDS ACROSS FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT
SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGERS INTO
THURSDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG IT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN EXITS TO
THE NE OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...GIVEN LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SEE SOME
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN ZONES.

COULD SEE SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING RAINS MAKE IT INTO FAR W/SW
ZONES LATE TONIGHT...ADDRESS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE...WEIGHED
TOWARDS COLDER SOLUTION WHERE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.
LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND
HAS BEEN DISCARDED IN THE SHORT TERM.

NON-GFS CONSENSUS SOLUTION TRACKS A LOW S OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY
MORNING...AND JUST S THEN E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN NOW FARTHER S AND FASTER TRACK OF LOW...AND THAT
THE NAM AND CMC KEEP THE AREA DRY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT DRY NAM AND CMC SOLUTION
COMPLETELY EITHER. HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER S ZONES CLOSEST TO LOW
AND LOWEST POPS OVER N ZONES. RAIN WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING
AS THE COASTAL LOW GOES BY...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE 700 HPA TROUGH AXIS...AND A 500
HPA SHORTWAVE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON IS OVER W
ZONES.

FOR NOW...DO HAVE LINGERING CHANCE POPS EARLY SAT EVENING OVER FAR
E ZONES...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH
RIDGING BUILDING IN AT 700 HPA SERVING TO COUNTER 500 HPA TROUGH
AXIS CROSSING AREA.

FOR HIGHS SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...IF THE NAM AND CMC ARE CORRECT AND THINGS
REMAIN DRY...THEN HIGHS COULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTS EAST WITH
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING FOLLOWING THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY FROM THIS. PREFERRED THE WARMER NAM MOS FOR HIGHS BASED ON
FORECAST 850MB TEMPS...AND EVEN MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS OVER LONG ISLAND SINCE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE PLENTY
OF TIME TO WARM UP BEFORE ANY SEA BREEZE EFFECTS KICK IN...AND
WATER TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY UP TO AROUND 70.

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR MONDAY WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. FOR HIGHS...HAVE GONE ABOVE AVAILABLE MOS
GUIDANCE...NOTING RISING HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES. THIS
COULD BE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY SUBSIDENCE...AND FOR COASTAL AREAS...A
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW ALL DAY AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS GENERALLY WILL
BE THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SUNDAYS FOR COASTAL AREAS...AND A
LITTLE ABOVE SUNDAYS INLAND.

MODELS ARE THEN IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF TWO
SURFACE FEATURES THAT COULD BRING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD. THE FIRST IS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OR
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHIFTING IN FROM THE SW. THE SECOND IS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW. WILL CAP POPS AT CHANCE
LATE MON NIGHT-WEDS NIGHT...BUT THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE OF RAINFALL
AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE WEDS AFTERNOON/WEDS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ENOUGH CAPE IS FORECAST FOR A CHANCE
OF THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDS ARE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE. MORE
SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY COULD PUSH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE COOLER OF
THE TWO DAYS WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF HIGHER CLOUD COVER.

MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THIS POINT...WITH ECMWF AND CMC DEVELOPING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SW ALONG THE STALLING COLD FRONT AND
EVENTUALLY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS
KEEPS US DRY WITH A LACK OF LOW DEVELOPMENT. WILL THEREFORE JUST
GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THEN KEEP FRIDAY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT.

VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND
FORECASTS. SEABREEZES HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS THROUGH 21Z.

VFR TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KT AT MOST IF NOT
ALL TERMINALS.

ON SATURDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN
LIGHT RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. IF THE LOW IS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...THEN MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR
NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN. E/NE WINDS
10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS
DIMINISHING SAT EVE.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT INCREASES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS...AND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT ON THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. SEAS
COULD ALSO BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS IS BELOW THE REQUIRED 80
PERCENT NEEDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THERE IS STILL TO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A COASTAL
LOW FORECAST TO PASS TO THE S THEN E OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THE AREA COULD REMAIN DRY IN
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS ALSO AN EVEN SMALLER CHANCE THE AREA
COULD RECEIVE AROUND DOUBLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN THIS TIME
FRAME.

IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT THIS
TIME.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MALOIT/JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031956
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
356 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY...AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...THEN
SOUTH...THEN SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY...THEN BUILDS ACROSS FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT
SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGERS INTO
THURSDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG IT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN EXITS TO
THE NE OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...GIVEN LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SEE SOME
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN ZONES.

COULD SEE SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING RAINS MAKE IT INTO FAR W/SW
ZONES LATE TONIGHT...ADDRESS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE...WEIGHED
TOWARDS COLDER SOLUTION WHERE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.
LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND
HAS BEEN DISCARDED IN THE SHORT TERM.

NON-GFS CONSENSUS SOLUTION TRACKS A LOW S OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY
MORNING...AND JUST S THEN E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN NOW FARTHER S AND FASTER TRACK OF LOW...AND THAT
THE NAM AND CMC KEEP THE AREA DRY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT DRY NAM AND CMC SOLUTION
COMPLETELY EITHER. HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER S ZONES CLOSEST TO LOW
AND LOWEST POPS OVER N ZONES. RAIN WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING
AS THE COASTAL LOW GOES BY...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE 700 HPA TROUGH AXIS...AND A 500
HPA SHORTWAVE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON IS OVER W
ZONES.

FOR NOW...DO HAVE LINGERING CHANCE POPS EARLY SAT EVENING OVER FAR
E ZONES...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH
RIDGING BUILDING IN AT 700 HPA SERVING TO COUNTER 500 HPA TROUGH
AXIS CROSSING AREA.

FOR HIGHS SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...IF THE NAM AND CMC ARE CORRECT AND THINGS
REMAIN DRY...THEN HIGHS COULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTS EAST WITH
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING FOLLOWING THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY FROM THIS. PREFERRED THE WARMER NAM MOS FOR HIGHS BASED ON
FORECAST 850MB TEMPS...AND EVEN MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS OVER LONG ISLAND SINCE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE PLENTY
OF TIME TO WARM UP BEFORE ANY SEA BREEZE EFFECTS KICK IN...AND
WATER TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY UP TO AROUND 70.

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR MONDAY WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. FOR HIGHS...HAVE GONE ABOVE AVAILABLE MOS
GUIDANCE...NOTING RISING HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES. THIS
COULD BE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY SUBSIDENCE...AND FOR COASTAL AREAS...A
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW ALL DAY AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS GENERALLY WILL
BE THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SUNDAYS FOR COASTAL AREAS...AND A
LITTLE ABOVE SUNDAYS INLAND.

MODELS ARE THEN IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF TWO
SURFACE FEATURES THAT COULD BRING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD. THE FIRST IS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OR
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHIFTING IN FROM THE SW. THE SECOND IS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW. WILL CAP POPS AT CHANCE
LATE MON NIGHT-WEDS NIGHT...BUT THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE OF RAINFALL
AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE WEDS AFTERNOON/WEDS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ENOUGH CAPE IS FORECAST FOR A CHANCE
OF THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDS ARE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE. MORE
SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY COULD PUSH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE COOLER OF
THE TWO DAYS WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF HIGHER CLOUD COVER.

MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THIS POINT...WITH ECMWF AND CMC DEVELOPING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SW ALONG THE STALLING COLD FRONT AND
EVENTUALLY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS
KEEPS US DRY WITH A LACK OF LOW DEVELOPMENT. WILL THEREFORE JUST
GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THEN KEEP FRIDAY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT.

VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND
FORECASTS. SEABREEZES HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS THROUGH 21Z.

VFR TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KT AT MOST IF NOT
ALL TERMINALS.

ON SATURDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN
LIGHT RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. IF THE LOW IS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...THEN MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR
NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN. E/NE WINDS
10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS
DIMINISHING SAT EVE.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT INCREASES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS...AND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT ON THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. SEAS
COULD ALSO BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS IS BELOW THE REQUIRED 80
PERCENT NEEDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THERE IS STILL TO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A COASTAL
LOW FORECAST TO PASS TO THE S THEN E OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THE AREA COULD REMAIN DRY IN
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS ALSO AN EVEN SMALLER CHANCE THE AREA
COULD RECEIVE AROUND DOUBLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN THIS TIME
FRAME.

IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT THIS
TIME.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MALOIT/JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 031801
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
201 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT...AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY...THEN OFF TO THE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT
SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WEAK 850-500 HPA RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER DUE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE.

ON TRACK FOR HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE
WITH REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL
MAKE THE JUMP TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER
CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN
AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS
OBVIOUSLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD
ANTICIPATE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS RAIN ENDS AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY
MID WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM
A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO
SPREAD IN MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY
ARRIVE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AFTER
12Z...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN MAINLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TOMORROW...MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. NORTHERLY TO VARIABLE WINDS
VERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN SEABREEZES DEVELOP AT COASTAL
TERMINALS THROUGH 21Z. DIRECTION AT KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30
DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO HYBRID
SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN. E/NE WINDS
10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS
DIMINISHING SAT EVE.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.

WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION......WINDS WILL
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS
CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST. WINDS INCREASE AS
THEY BACK TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SATURDAY. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS
MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS
OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 031801
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
201 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT...AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY...THEN OFF TO THE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT
SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WEAK 850-500 HPA RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER DUE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE.

ON TRACK FOR HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE
WITH REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL
MAKE THE JUMP TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER
CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN
AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS
OBVIOUSLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD
ANTICIPATE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS RAIN ENDS AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY
MID WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM
A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO
SPREAD IN MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY
ARRIVE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AFTER
12Z...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN MAINLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TOMORROW...MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. NORTHERLY TO VARIABLE WINDS
VERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN SEABREEZES DEVELOP AT COASTAL
TERMINALS THROUGH 21Z. DIRECTION AT KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30
DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO HYBRID
SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN. E/NE WINDS
10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS
DIMINISHING SAT EVE.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.

WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION......WINDS WILL
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS
CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST. WINDS INCREASE AS
THEY BACK TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SATURDAY. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS
MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS
OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031801
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
201 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT...AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY...THEN OFF TO THE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT
SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WEAK 850-500 HPA RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER DUE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE.

ON TRACK FOR HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE
WITH REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL
MAKE THE JUMP TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER
CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN
AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS
OBVIOUSLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD
ANTICIPATE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS RAIN ENDS AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY
MID WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM
A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO
SPREAD IN MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY
ARRIVE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AFTER
12Z...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN MAINLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TOMORROW...MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. NORTHERLY TO VARIABLE WINDS
VERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN SEABREEZES DEVELOP AT COASTAL
TERMINALS THROUGH 21Z. DIRECTION AT KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30
DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO HYBRID
SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN. E/NE WINDS
10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS
DIMINISHING SAT EVE.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.

WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION......WINDS WILL
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS
CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST. WINDS INCREASE AS
THEY BACK TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SATURDAY. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS
MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS
OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 031654
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1254 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT...AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY...THEN OFF TO THE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT
SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WEAK 850-500 HPA RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER DUE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE.

ON TRACK FOR HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE
WITH REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL
MAKE THE JUMP TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER
CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN
AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS
OBVIOUSLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD
ANTICIPATE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS RAIN ENDS AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY
MID WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM
A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO
SPREAD IN MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY
ARRIVE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN
09Z AND 12Z...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. SEABREEZES THEN DEVELOP
AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DIRECTION AT
KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO
HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHANCE OF IFR.
E/NE WINDS 10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING SAT EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.

WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION......WINDS WILL
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS
CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST. WINDS INCREASE AS
THEY BACK TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SATURDAY. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS
MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS
OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC/24
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031654
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1254 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT...AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY...THEN OFF TO THE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT
SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WEAK 850-500 HPA RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER DUE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE.

ON TRACK FOR HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE
WITH REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL
MAKE THE JUMP TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER
CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN
AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS
OBVIOUSLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD
ANTICIPATE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS RAIN ENDS AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY
MID WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM
A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO
SPREAD IN MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY
ARRIVE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN
09Z AND 12Z...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. SEABREEZES THEN DEVELOP
AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DIRECTION AT
KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO
HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHANCE OF IFR.
E/NE WINDS 10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING SAT EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.

WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION......WINDS WILL
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS
CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST. WINDS INCREASE AS
THEY BACK TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SATURDAY. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS
MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS
OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC/24
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 031447
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1047 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT...AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY...THEN OFF TO THE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT
SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WEAK 850-500 HPA RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER DUE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80...WITH SOME MID 80S POSSIBLE IN URBAN NE NJ.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE
WITH REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL
MAKE THE JUMP TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER
CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN
AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS
OBVIOUSLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD
ANTICIPATE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS RAIN ENDS AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY
MID WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM
A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO
SPREAD IN MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY
ARRIVE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN
09Z AND 12Z...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. SEABREEZES THEN DEVELOP
AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DIRECTION AT
KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO
HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHANCE OF IFR.
E/NE WINDS 10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING SAT EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION......WINDS WILL
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS
CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST. WINDS INCREASE AS
THEY BACK TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SATURDAY. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS
MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS
OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC/24
MARINE...MALOIT/PW/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...PW/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031447
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1047 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT...AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY...THEN OFF TO THE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT
SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WEAK 850-500 HPA RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER DUE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80...WITH SOME MID 80S POSSIBLE IN URBAN NE NJ.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE
WITH REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL
MAKE THE JUMP TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER
CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN
AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS
OBVIOUSLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD
ANTICIPATE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS RAIN ENDS AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY
MID WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM
A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO
SPREAD IN MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY
ARRIVE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN
09Z AND 12Z...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. SEABREEZES THEN DEVELOP
AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DIRECTION AT
KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO
HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHANCE OF IFR.
E/NE WINDS 10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING SAT EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION......WINDS WILL
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS
CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST. WINDS INCREASE AS
THEY BACK TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SATURDAY. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS
MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS
OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC/24
MARINE...MALOIT/PW/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...PW/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 031447
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1047 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT...AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY...THEN OFF TO THE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT
SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WEAK 850-500 HPA RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER DUE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80...WITH SOME MID 80S POSSIBLE IN URBAN NE NJ.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE
WITH REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL
MAKE THE JUMP TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER
CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN
AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS
OBVIOUSLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD
ANTICIPATE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS RAIN ENDS AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY
MID WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM
A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO
SPREAD IN MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY
ARRIVE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN
09Z AND 12Z...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. SEABREEZES THEN DEVELOP
AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DIRECTION AT
KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO
HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHANCE OF IFR.
E/NE WINDS 10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING SAT EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION......WINDS WILL
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS
CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST. WINDS INCREASE AS
THEY BACK TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SATURDAY. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS
MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS
OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC/24
MARINE...MALOIT/PW/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...PW/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031251
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
851 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z SAT. MVFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. SEABREEZES DEVELOP
AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTN. DIRECTION AT
KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO
HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
E/NE WINDS 10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NLY WINDS DIMINISHING SAT EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031251
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
851 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z SAT. MVFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. SEABREEZES DEVELOP
AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTN. DIRECTION AT
KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO
HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
E/NE WINDS 10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NLY WINDS DIMINISHING SAT EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 031251
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
851 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z SAT. MVFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. SEABREEZES DEVELOP
AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTN. DIRECTION AT
KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO
HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
E/NE WINDS 10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NLY WINDS DIMINISHING SAT EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 030837
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
437 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH 06Z SAT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. SEABREEZES DEVELOP
AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTN. DIRECTION AT
KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO
HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
E/NE WINDS 10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NLY WINDS DIMINISHING SAT EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 030837
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
437 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH 06Z SAT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. SEABREEZES DEVELOP
AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTN. DIRECTION AT
KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO
HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
E/NE WINDS 10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NLY WINDS DIMINISHING SAT EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030734
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
334 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KISP MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN
FOG...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THIS
SHORTLIVED.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS...ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. DIRECTION AT
KISP/KBDR/KGON MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD  FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED INTO
THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 030734
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
334 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KISP MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN
FOG...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THIS
SHORTLIVED.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS...ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. DIRECTION AT
KISP/KBDR/KGON MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD  FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED INTO
THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030734
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
334 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KISP MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN
FOG...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THIS
SHORTLIVED.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS...ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. DIRECTION AT
KISP/KBDR/KGON MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD  FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED INTO
THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW





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