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000
FXUS61 KOKX 290809
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
409 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA...HEIGHTS WILL RISE
AS THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH AND NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE PHASE
ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR AND IR SAT INDICATE
A LOT OF CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. HAVE
FORECASTED SUNNY SKIES TODAY...ALTHOUGH ITS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
HOW TRANSPARENT THESE CLOUDS ARE ATTM. DO EXPECT SOME THINNING AS
THEY APPROACH THE AREA WITH VERY DRY UPPER LEVELS PER 00Z KOKX
SOUNDING.

NLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SE WITH SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AT THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MIXING AROUND H85...WITH TEMPS AROUND 10C AT THIS LEVEL WHICH
WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT OCEAN
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SAT WITH H5
HEIGHTS AROUND 590 DAM. SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING THROUGH SAT. H85 TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND
13C SAT AFTN WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
HIGHS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD DECOUPLE FROM THE FLOW TONIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY HOWEVER SINCE THE
OPAQUENESS OF THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR AS WELL AS WEAK WAA OCCURRING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
STILL FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL...HOWEVER A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN THU NIGHT.

ONE OTHER THING THAT IS TROUBLING IS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THE MODELS ARE INDICATING EARLY SAT MORNING. DESPITE THE
ONSHORE FLOW...FEEL THAT THEY ARE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DO NOT FORESEE
BKN LOW CLOUDS AROUND 12Z. DO HOWEVER FEEL THAT FEW-SCT COULD BE
AROUND WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM...MUGGY PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
TRI-STATE AREA UNDER A MOIST S/SW FLOW WITH A SERIES OF FRONTAL
SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA. THE FIRST OF WHICH IS A TROF OR
WEAK WARM FRONT THAT APPROACHES SUN AND PASSES TROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES
RAISES SOME CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. DECENT WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT DOES NOT SUPPORT
TRAINING OF CELLS...THUS ANY FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE BEFORE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TUE
AFT/EVE. AT THIS TIME...ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO FEATURE MDT-HIGH
CAPE...BUT WEAK SHEAR.

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE WITH HIGHS INLAND IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S...AND LOW TO MID 80S AT THE COAST DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. SOME DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS IN THROUGH TODAY WITH VFR
EXPECTED.

N-NW FLOW...RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES MAGNETIC...IS GENERALLY
SUBSIDING. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT N-NNE WINDS
AFTER SUNRISE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SE WITH SEA BREEZES AT ALL
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10KT...EXCEPT AT KJFK WHERE WINDS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER.

WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA LEVELS WITH SWELLS ALSO
DECREASING...THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA HZ. SUB-ADVSY CONDS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SAT WITH HIGH PRES
BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THEN OFFSHORE.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF S/SW WINDS WILL BE FEATURED FROM SAT NIGHT
INTO TUE AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO REACH SCA CRITERIA
SUN AFT THOUGH MON MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL THROUGH SAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 290809
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
409 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA...HEIGHTS WILL RISE
AS THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH AND NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE PHASE
ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR AND IR SAT INDICATE
A LOT OF CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. HAVE
FORECASTED SUNNY SKIES TODAY...ALTHOUGH ITS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
HOW TRANSPARENT THESE CLOUDS ARE ATTM. DO EXPECT SOME THINNING AS
THEY APPROACH THE AREA WITH VERY DRY UPPER LEVELS PER 00Z KOKX
SOUNDING.

NLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SE WITH SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AT THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MIXING AROUND H85...WITH TEMPS AROUND 10C AT THIS LEVEL WHICH
WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT OCEAN
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SAT WITH H5
HEIGHTS AROUND 590 DAM. SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING THROUGH SAT. H85 TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND
13C SAT AFTN WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
HIGHS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD DECOUPLE FROM THE FLOW TONIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY HOWEVER SINCE THE
OPAQUENESS OF THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR AS WELL AS WEAK WAA OCCURRING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
STILL FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL...HOWEVER A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN THU NIGHT.

ONE OTHER THING THAT IS TROUBLING IS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THE MODELS ARE INDICATING EARLY SAT MORNING. DESPITE THE
ONSHORE FLOW...FEEL THAT THEY ARE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DO NOT FORESEE
BKN LOW CLOUDS AROUND 12Z. DO HOWEVER FEEL THAT FEW-SCT COULD BE
AROUND WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM...MUGGY PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
TRI-STATE AREA UNDER A MOIST S/SW FLOW WITH A SERIES OF FRONTAL
SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA. THE FIRST OF WHICH IS A TROF OR
WEAK WARM FRONT THAT APPROACHES SUN AND PASSES TROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES
RAISES SOME CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. DECENT WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT DOES NOT SUPPORT
TRAINING OF CELLS...THUS ANY FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE BEFORE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TUE
AFT/EVE. AT THIS TIME...ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO FEATURE MDT-HIGH
CAPE...BUT WEAK SHEAR.

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE WITH HIGHS INLAND IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S...AND LOW TO MID 80S AT THE COAST DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. SOME DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS IN THROUGH TODAY WITH VFR
EXPECTED.

N-NW FLOW...RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES MAGNETIC...IS GENERALLY
SUBSIDING. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT N-NNE WINDS
AFTER SUNRISE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SE WITH SEA BREEZES AT ALL
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10KT...EXCEPT AT KJFK WHERE WINDS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER.

WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA LEVELS WITH SWELLS ALSO
DECREASING...THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA HZ. SUB-ADVSY CONDS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SAT WITH HIGH PRES
BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THEN OFFSHORE.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF S/SW WINDS WILL BE FEATURED FROM SAT NIGHT
INTO TUE AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO REACH SCA CRITERIA
SUN AFT THOUGH MON MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL THROUGH SAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KOKX 290513
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
113 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED AS EXPECTED. A NLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW KTS OF WIND OVERNIGHT AT ALL
BUT SHELTERED AND LOCATIONS WELL INLAND WILL KEEP RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO A MINIMUM. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY T/TD
AND SKY. LOWS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS...GENERALLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT LOWER 60S IN NYC AND
UPPER 40S IN ORANGE COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
1020S HI RIGHT OVER THE CWA. LGT WINDS AND DRY WX. WEAK RETURN
FLOW FRI NGT COULD BRING IN ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG. TIME-HEIGHTS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP MOISTENING HOWEVER...UP TO
AROUND H9...SO THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH SOME STRATUS
FLOATING AROUND. HAVE HELD OFF ON INCLUDING FOG IN THE FCST ATTM
AS A RESULT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
REGION DURING THE THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...FINALLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION.

WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ALSO EXPECT MUGGY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS IN THROUGH TODAY WITH VFR
EXPECTED.

N-NW FLOW...RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES MAGNETIC...IS GENERALLY
SUBSIDING. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT N-NNE WINDS
AFTER SUNRISE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SE WITH SEA BREEZES AT ALL
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10KT...EXCEPT AT KJFK WHERE WINDS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER.

WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SWELL STILL EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFT
MIDNIGHT. THE SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL FRI
MRNG. OTHERWISE...NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 2O KT THRU TNGT.
HIPRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI SO LGT WINDS WITH SEAS
CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN
WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SWELLS CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SINCE HIGH TIDE HAS PASSED
ON THE ATLANTIC AND SEAS AT 44017 AT 5 FT...HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH
SURF ADVSY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KOKX 290513
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
113 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED AS EXPECTED. A NLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW KTS OF WIND OVERNIGHT AT ALL
BUT SHELTERED AND LOCATIONS WELL INLAND WILL KEEP RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO A MINIMUM. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY T/TD
AND SKY. LOWS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS...GENERALLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT LOWER 60S IN NYC AND
UPPER 40S IN ORANGE COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
1020S HI RIGHT OVER THE CWA. LGT WINDS AND DRY WX. WEAK RETURN
FLOW FRI NGT COULD BRING IN ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG. TIME-HEIGHTS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP MOISTENING HOWEVER...UP TO
AROUND H9...SO THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH SOME STRATUS
FLOATING AROUND. HAVE HELD OFF ON INCLUDING FOG IN THE FCST ATTM
AS A RESULT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
REGION DURING THE THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...FINALLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION.

WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ALSO EXPECT MUGGY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS IN THROUGH TODAY WITH VFR
EXPECTED.

N-NW FLOW...RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES MAGNETIC...IS GENERALLY
SUBSIDING. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT N-NNE WINDS
AFTER SUNRISE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SE WITH SEA BREEZES AT ALL
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10KT...EXCEPT AT KJFK WHERE WINDS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER.

WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SWELL STILL EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFT
MIDNIGHT. THE SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL FRI
MRNG. OTHERWISE...NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 2O KT THRU TNGT.
HIPRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI SO LGT WINDS WITH SEAS
CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN
WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SWELLS CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SINCE HIGH TIDE HAS PASSED
ON THE ATLANTIC AND SEAS AT 44017 AT 5 FT...HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH
SURF ADVSY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KOKX 290231
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1031 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
02Z IR SAT IMAGERY INDICATING SKIES CONTINUING TO SCATTER
OUT...WITH ONLY FEW MID LVL CLOUDS LINGERING OVER CT. REST OF THE
AREA ALREADY CLEAR...WITH THE EXPECTATION THE ENTIRE AREA BECOMES
CLR BY 06Z. OCNL GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD DIMINISH
BY 03Z...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT OVER LAND. TEMPS AND DEW
PTS GENERALLY ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS
MADE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
1020S HI RIGHT OVER THE CWA. LGT WINDS AND DRY WX. WEAK RETURN
FLOW FRI NGT COULD BRING IN ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG. TIME-HEIGHTS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP MOISTENING HOWEVER...UP TO
AROUND H9...SO THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH SOME STRATUS
FLOATING AROUND. HAVE HELD OFF ON INCLUDING FOG IN THE FCST ATTM
AS A RESULT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
REGION DURING THE THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...FINALLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION.

WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ALSO EXPECT MUGGY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH VFR
EXPECTED.

N-NW FLOW...DIRECTION MAINLY RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES MAGNETIC IS
GENERALLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING. THE
EXCEPTION IS AROUND THE NYC METRO INCLUDING LGA/EWR/JFK WHERE
GUSTS ARE CONTINUING LONGER THAN EXPECTED AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH
4-5Z.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR LIGHT N-E WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOMING S-SE WITH SEA BREEZES AT
ALL COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SWELL STILL EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFT
MIDNIGHT. THE SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL FRI
MRNG. OTHERWISE...NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 2O KT THRU TNGT.
HIPRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI SO LGT WINDS WITH SEAS
CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN
WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SWELL GRADUALLY DECREASING TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT SOUTHEASTERN LONG ISLAND DUE
TO THE DECREASING SWELL COMPONENT...WITH WAVES LESS THAN 5 FT NOW
OVER THAT REGION. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 2 AM TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT THE TIMING OF HIGH TIDE
ALONG WITH SWELL IMPACTS. RIP CURRENT THREAT IS DIMINISHING AS
WELL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/SEARS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MMD
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









000
FXUS61 KOKX 290231
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1031 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
02Z IR SAT IMAGERY INDICATING SKIES CONTINUING TO SCATTER
OUT...WITH ONLY FEW MID LVL CLOUDS LINGERING OVER CT. REST OF THE
AREA ALREADY CLEAR...WITH THE EXPECTATION THE ENTIRE AREA BECOMES
CLR BY 06Z. OCNL GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD DIMINISH
BY 03Z...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT OVER LAND. TEMPS AND DEW
PTS GENERALLY ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS
MADE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
1020S HI RIGHT OVER THE CWA. LGT WINDS AND DRY WX. WEAK RETURN
FLOW FRI NGT COULD BRING IN ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG. TIME-HEIGHTS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP MOISTENING HOWEVER...UP TO
AROUND H9...SO THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH SOME STRATUS
FLOATING AROUND. HAVE HELD OFF ON INCLUDING FOG IN THE FCST ATTM
AS A RESULT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
REGION DURING THE THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...FINALLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION.

WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ALSO EXPECT MUGGY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH VFR
EXPECTED.

N-NW FLOW...DIRECTION MAINLY RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES MAGNETIC IS
GENERALLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING. THE
EXCEPTION IS AROUND THE NYC METRO INCLUDING LGA/EWR/JFK WHERE
GUSTS ARE CONTINUING LONGER THAN EXPECTED AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH
4-5Z.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR LIGHT N-E WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOMING S-SE WITH SEA BREEZES AT
ALL COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SWELL STILL EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFT
MIDNIGHT. THE SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL FRI
MRNG. OTHERWISE...NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 2O KT THRU TNGT.
HIPRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI SO LGT WINDS WITH SEAS
CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN
WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SWELL GRADUALLY DECREASING TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT SOUTHEASTERN LONG ISLAND DUE
TO THE DECREASING SWELL COMPONENT...WITH WAVES LESS THAN 5 FT NOW
OVER THAT REGION. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 2 AM TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT THE TIMING OF HIGH TIDE
ALONG WITH SWELL IMPACTS. RIP CURRENT THREAT IS DIMINISHING AS
WELL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/SEARS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MMD
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...










000
FXUS61 KOKX 282341
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
741 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FAIR WX CU WILL CONTINUE DISSIPATING THIS EVE...WITH THE FCST
STILL INDICATING CLR OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE OUTLYING SPOTS. HOWEVER SOME WEAK
MIXING WINDS PARTICULARLY ERN LI COULD KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY
BOTTOMING OFF. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH A GMOS25/MET BLEND AND
MANUALLY DROPPED THE PINE BARRENS ONLY A DEGREE. TEMPS ON TRACK
FOR THE NIGHT. DECENT MIXING HAD ALLOWED FOR DEW PTS TO DROP INTO
THE 40S IN SOME AREAS SO ADJUSTED DEW PTS THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR LATEST OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
1020S HI RIGHT OVER THE CWA. LGT WINDS AND DRY WX. WEAK RETURN
FLOW FRI NGT COULD BRING IN ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG. TIME-HEIGHTS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP MOISTENING HOWEVER...UP TO
AROUND H9...SO THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH SOME STRATUS
FLOATING AROUND. HAVE HELD OFF ON INCLUDING FOG IN THE FCST ATTM
AS A RESULT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
REGION DURING THE THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...FINALLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION.

WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ALSO EXPECT MUGGY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH VFR
EXPECTED.

N-NW FLOW...DIRECTION MAINLY RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES MAGNETIC
AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KT...SUBSIDES EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT N-E WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOMING S-SE WITH
SEA BREEZES AT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS
FRIDAY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE + 1-2 HRS FROM
FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE + 1-2 HRS FROM
FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SWELL WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFT MIDNIGHT. THE SCA
FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL FRI MRNG.
OTHERWISE...NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 2O KT THRU TNGT. HIPRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI SO LGT WINDS WITH SEAS CONTINUING TO
SUBSIDE. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SEAS
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SWELL IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DECREASING AT THE BUOYS. THE
HIGH SURF ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH WAVES THIS EVE IN THE 4-5 FT
RANGE. RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS THROUGH THIS EVE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/SEARS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MMD
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 282341
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
741 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FAIR WX CU WILL CONTINUE DISSIPATING THIS EVE...WITH THE FCST
STILL INDICATING CLR OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE OUTLYING SPOTS. HOWEVER SOME WEAK
MIXING WINDS PARTICULARLY ERN LI COULD KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY
BOTTOMING OFF. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH A GMOS25/MET BLEND AND
MANUALLY DROPPED THE PINE BARRENS ONLY A DEGREE. TEMPS ON TRACK
FOR THE NIGHT. DECENT MIXING HAD ALLOWED FOR DEW PTS TO DROP INTO
THE 40S IN SOME AREAS SO ADJUSTED DEW PTS THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR LATEST OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
1020S HI RIGHT OVER THE CWA. LGT WINDS AND DRY WX. WEAK RETURN
FLOW FRI NGT COULD BRING IN ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG. TIME-HEIGHTS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP MOISTENING HOWEVER...UP TO
AROUND H9...SO THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH SOME STRATUS
FLOATING AROUND. HAVE HELD OFF ON INCLUDING FOG IN THE FCST ATTM
AS A RESULT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
REGION DURING THE THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...FINALLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION.

WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ALSO EXPECT MUGGY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH VFR
EXPECTED.

N-NW FLOW...DIRECTION MAINLY RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES MAGNETIC
AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KT...SUBSIDES EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT N-E WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOMING S-SE WITH
SEA BREEZES AT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS
FRIDAY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE + 1-2 HRS FROM
FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE + 1-2 HRS FROM
FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SWELL WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFT MIDNIGHT. THE SCA
FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL FRI MRNG.
OTHERWISE...NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 2O KT THRU TNGT. HIPRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI SO LGT WINDS WITH SEAS CONTINUING TO
SUBSIDE. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SEAS
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SWELL IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DECREASING AT THE BUOYS. THE
HIGH SURF ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH WAVES THIS EVE IN THE 4-5 FT
RANGE. RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS THROUGH THIS EVE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/SEARS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MMD
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 281912
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
312 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FAIR WX CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVE. STLT INDICATES CIRRUS IS ONLY
INTO LWR MI...AS A RESULT THE MOISTURE IN THE GFS SEEMS A BIT HIGH
FOR OVERNIGHT HIGH CLOUDS. THE FCST IS THEREFORE CLR OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS DROP CLOSE TO 30 DEGREES AT THE OUTLYING SPOTS...HOWEVER
SOME WEAK MIXING WINDS PARTICULARLY ERN LI COULD KEEP TEMPS FROM
COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OFF. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH A GMOS25/MET
BLEND AND MANUALLY DROPPED THE PINE BARRENS ONLY A DEGREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
1020S HI RIGHT OVER THE CWA. LGT WINDS AND DRY WX. WEAK RETURN
FLOW FRI NGT COULD BRING IN ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG. TIME-HEIGHTS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP MOISTENING HOWEVER...UP TO
AROUND H9...SO THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH SOME STRATUS
FLOATING AROUND. HAVE HELD OFF ON INCLUDING FOG IN THE FCST ATTM
AS A RESULT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIPS ON THE OCEANFRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
REGION DURING THE THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...FINALLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION.

WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ALSO EXPECT MUGGY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
VFR EXPECTED. NW FLOW...DIRECTION MAINLY RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES
MAGNETIC AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KT...SUBSIDES EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT N-E WINDS EVENTUALLY
BECOMING S-SE WITH SEA BREEZES AT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRI THROUGH TUE...
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SWELL WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFT MIDNIGHT. THE SCA
FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL FRI MRNG.
OTHERWISE...NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 2O KT THRU TNGT. HIPRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI SO LGT WINDS WITH SEAS CONTINUING TO
SUBSIDE. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SEAS
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SWELL IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DECREASING AT THE BUOYS. THE
HIGH SURF ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH WAVES THIS AFTN IN THE 4-7
FT RANGE. RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS THROUGH THIS EVE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JMC








000
FXUS61 KOKX 281912
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
312 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FAIR WX CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVE. STLT INDICATES CIRRUS IS ONLY
INTO LWR MI...AS A RESULT THE MOISTURE IN THE GFS SEEMS A BIT HIGH
FOR OVERNIGHT HIGH CLOUDS. THE FCST IS THEREFORE CLR OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS DROP CLOSE TO 30 DEGREES AT THE OUTLYING SPOTS...HOWEVER
SOME WEAK MIXING WINDS PARTICULARLY ERN LI COULD KEEP TEMPS FROM
COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OFF. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH A GMOS25/MET
BLEND AND MANUALLY DROPPED THE PINE BARRENS ONLY A DEGREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
1020S HI RIGHT OVER THE CWA. LGT WINDS AND DRY WX. WEAK RETURN
FLOW FRI NGT COULD BRING IN ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG. TIME-HEIGHTS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP MOISTENING HOWEVER...UP TO
AROUND H9...SO THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH SOME STRATUS
FLOATING AROUND. HAVE HELD OFF ON INCLUDING FOG IN THE FCST ATTM
AS A RESULT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIPS ON THE OCEANFRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
REGION DURING THE THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...FINALLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION.

WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ALSO EXPECT MUGGY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
VFR EXPECTED. NW FLOW...DIRECTION MAINLY RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES
MAGNETIC AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KT...SUBSIDES EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT N-E WINDS EVENTUALLY
BECOMING S-SE WITH SEA BREEZES AT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRI THROUGH TUE...
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SWELL WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFT MIDNIGHT. THE SCA
FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL FRI MRNG.
OTHERWISE...NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 2O KT THRU TNGT. HIPRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI SO LGT WINDS WITH SEAS CONTINUING TO
SUBSIDE. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SEAS
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SWELL IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DECREASING AT THE BUOYS. THE
HIGH SURF ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH WAVES THIS AFTN IN THE 4-7
FT RANGE. RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS THROUGH THIS EVE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JMC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 281739
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
139 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY IN THE GRIDS.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE DAY AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

GUSTY NW FLOW TODAY IN CAA. DEEP MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE (UPPER 70S INTERIOR...LOWER 80S TO 85
COAST). WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WITH SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT
UNLIKELY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER WITH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN INSTABILITY CU...MAINLY ACROSS
INTERIOR...UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS IT DRIFTS
SE OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MAIN STORY WILL BE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL RESULTING IN HIGH SURF
AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES. SEE TIDES AND
COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
IN ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

DIMINISHING WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...EXCEPT LOWER 50S ACROSS PINE BARRENS AND NORTHERN
VALLEYS...LOWER 60S NYC/NJ METRO.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD WITH TRANQUIL CONDS ON FRIDAY.
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED UNDER CANADIAN
HIGH...WITH LATE DAY SEABREEZE LIKELY. FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH RESIDUAL SWELLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE
WEEKEND WEATHER PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN ON
MONDAY...KEEPING THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH AND WEST. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH WILL FINALLY SEND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. FLOW APPEARS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S DUE TO ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S. EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...BUT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS A LITTLE LOWER WITH RIDGING ALOFT. ANOTHER WARM
AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S. THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER SHORTWAVE BRINGS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. THE FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A RETURN TO DRIER AIR
AND AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
VFR EXPECTED. NW FLOW...DIRECTION MAINLY RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES
MAGNETIC AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KT...SUBSIDES EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT N-E WINDS EVENTUALLY
BECOMING S-SE WITH SEA BREEZES AT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRI THROUGH TUE...
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
REMAINING ABV 5 FT INTO TONIGHT. LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS PEAK
AROUND 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS
AROUND AREA INLETS. A FEW NEAR SHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE...BUT
MAINLY UP TO 20 KT EXPECTED.

WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH S/SSE
SWELLS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. DECREASING PROB OF SCA OCEAN SEAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS
MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW
SCA LEVELS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
FORECASTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD...PEAKING SURF AT
GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOCALLY 8 TO 10 FT. THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED WASH-OVERS
WILL BE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TIDE. THE ACCOMPANYING
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT.
SURF GRADUALLY SUBSIDES TONIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...DS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 281739
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
139 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY IN THE GRIDS.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE DAY AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

GUSTY NW FLOW TODAY IN CAA. DEEP MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE (UPPER 70S INTERIOR...LOWER 80S TO 85
COAST). WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WITH SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT
UNLIKELY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER WITH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN INSTABILITY CU...MAINLY ACROSS
INTERIOR...UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS IT DRIFTS
SE OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MAIN STORY WILL BE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL RESULTING IN HIGH SURF
AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES. SEE TIDES AND
COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
IN ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

DIMINISHING WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...EXCEPT LOWER 50S ACROSS PINE BARRENS AND NORTHERN
VALLEYS...LOWER 60S NYC/NJ METRO.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD WITH TRANQUIL CONDS ON FRIDAY.
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED UNDER CANADIAN
HIGH...WITH LATE DAY SEABREEZE LIKELY. FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH RESIDUAL SWELLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE
WEEKEND WEATHER PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN ON
MONDAY...KEEPING THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH AND WEST. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH WILL FINALLY SEND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. FLOW APPEARS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S DUE TO ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S. EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...BUT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS A LITTLE LOWER WITH RIDGING ALOFT. ANOTHER WARM
AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S. THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER SHORTWAVE BRINGS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. THE FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A RETURN TO DRIER AIR
AND AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
VFR EXPECTED. NW FLOW...DIRECTION MAINLY RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES
MAGNETIC AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KT...SUBSIDES EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT N-E WINDS EVENTUALLY
BECOMING S-SE WITH SEA BREEZES AT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRI THROUGH TUE...
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
REMAINING ABV 5 FT INTO TONIGHT. LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS PEAK
AROUND 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS
AROUND AREA INLETS. A FEW NEAR SHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE...BUT
MAINLY UP TO 20 KT EXPECTED.

WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH S/SSE
SWELLS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. DECREASING PROB OF SCA OCEAN SEAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS
MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW
SCA LEVELS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
FORECASTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD...PEAKING SURF AT
GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOCALLY 8 TO 10 FT. THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED WASH-OVERS
WILL BE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TIDE. THE ACCOMPANYING
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT.
SURF GRADUALLY SUBSIDES TONIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...DS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 281636
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1236 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY IN THE GRIDS.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE DAY AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

GUSTY NW FLOW TODAY IN CAA. DEEP MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE (UPPER 70S INTERIOR...LOWER 80S TO 85
COAST). WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WITH SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT
UNLIKELY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER WITH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN INSTABILITY CU...MAINLY ACROSS
INTERIOR...UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS IT DRIFTS
SE OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MAIN STORY WILL BE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL RESULTING IN HIGH SURF
AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES. SEE TIDES AND
COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
IN ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

DIMINISHING WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...EXCEPT LOWER 50S ACROSS PINE BARRENS AND NORTHERN
VALLEYS...LOWER 60S NYC/NJ METRO.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD WITH TRANQUIL CONDS ON FRIDAY.
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED UNDER CANADIAN
HIGH...WITH LATE DAY SEABREEZE LIKELY. FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH RESIDUAL SWELLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE
WEEKEND WEATHER PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN ON
MONDAY...KEEPING THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH AND WEST. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH WILL FINALLY SEND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. FLOW APPEARS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S DUE TO ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S. EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...BUT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS A LITTLE LOWER WITH RIDGING ALOFT. ANOTHER WARM
AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S. THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER SHORTWAVE BRINGS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. THE FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A RETURN TO DRIER AIR
AND AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NW FLOW AT 10-14
KT...WITH GUSTS 15 TO 19 KT UNTIL EARLY EVENING. FLOW BACKS
PARTIALLY IN AFTERNOON DUE TO A WEAK TROF...BUT ALL WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES MAGNETIC.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
REMAINING ABV 5 FT INTO TONIGHT. LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS PEAK
AROUND 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS
AROUND AREA INLETS. A FEW NEAR SHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE...BUT
MAINLY UP TO 20 KT EXPECTED.

WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH S/SSE
SWELLS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. DECREASING PROB OF SCA OCEAN SEAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS
MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW
SCA LEVELS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
FORECASTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD...PEAKING SURF AT
GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOCALLY 8 TO 10 FT. THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED WASH-OVERS
WILL BE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TIDE. THE ACCOMPANYING
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT.
SURF GRADUALLY SUBSIDES TONIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JM/DW
MARINE...DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...DS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV/JMC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 281636
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1236 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY IN THE GRIDS.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE DAY AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

GUSTY NW FLOW TODAY IN CAA. DEEP MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE (UPPER 70S INTERIOR...LOWER 80S TO 85
COAST). WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WITH SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT
UNLIKELY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER WITH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN INSTABILITY CU...MAINLY ACROSS
INTERIOR...UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS IT DRIFTS
SE OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MAIN STORY WILL BE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL RESULTING IN HIGH SURF
AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES. SEE TIDES AND
COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
IN ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

DIMINISHING WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...EXCEPT LOWER 50S ACROSS PINE BARRENS AND NORTHERN
VALLEYS...LOWER 60S NYC/NJ METRO.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD WITH TRANQUIL CONDS ON FRIDAY.
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED UNDER CANADIAN
HIGH...WITH LATE DAY SEABREEZE LIKELY. FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH RESIDUAL SWELLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE
WEEKEND WEATHER PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN ON
MONDAY...KEEPING THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH AND WEST. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH WILL FINALLY SEND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. FLOW APPEARS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S DUE TO ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S. EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...BUT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS A LITTLE LOWER WITH RIDGING ALOFT. ANOTHER WARM
AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S. THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER SHORTWAVE BRINGS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. THE FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A RETURN TO DRIER AIR
AND AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NW FLOW AT 10-14
KT...WITH GUSTS 15 TO 19 KT UNTIL EARLY EVENING. FLOW BACKS
PARTIALLY IN AFTERNOON DUE TO A WEAK TROF...BUT ALL WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES MAGNETIC.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
REMAINING ABV 5 FT INTO TONIGHT. LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS PEAK
AROUND 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS
AROUND AREA INLETS. A FEW NEAR SHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE...BUT
MAINLY UP TO 20 KT EXPECTED.

WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH S/SSE
SWELLS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. DECREASING PROB OF SCA OCEAN SEAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS
MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW
SCA LEVELS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
FORECASTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD...PEAKING SURF AT
GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOCALLY 8 TO 10 FT. THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED WASH-OVERS
WILL BE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TIDE. THE ACCOMPANYING
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT.
SURF GRADUALLY SUBSIDES TONIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JM/DW
MARINE...DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...DS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV/JMC








000
FXUS61 KOKX 281447
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1047 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE DAY AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

GUSTY NW FLOW TODAY IN CAA. DEEP MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE (UPPER 70S INTERIOR...LOWER 80S TO 85
COAST). WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WITH SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER WITH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN INSTABILITY CU...MAINLY ACROSS
INTERIOR...UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS IT DRIFTS
SE OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MAIN STORY WILL BE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL RESULTING IN HIGH SURF
AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES. SEE TIDES AND
COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
IN ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

DIMINISHING WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...EXCEPT LOWER 50S ACROSS PINE BARRENS AND NORTHERN
VALLEYS...LOWER 60S NYC/NJ METRO.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD WITH TRANQUIL CONDS ON FRIDAY.
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED UNDER CANADIAN
HIGH...WITH LATE DAY SEABREEZE LIKELY. FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH RESIDUAL SWELLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE
WEEKEND WEATHER PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN ON
MONDAY...KEEPING THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH AND WEST. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH WILL FINALLY SEND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. FLOW APPEARS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S DUE TO ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S. EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...BUT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS A LITTLE LOWER WITH RIDGING ALOFT. ANOTHER WARM
AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S. THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER SHORTWAVE BRINGS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. THE FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A RETURN TO DRIER AIR
AND AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NW FLOW AT 10-14
KT...WITH GUSTS 15 TO 19 KT UNTIL EARLY EVENING. FLOW BACKS
PARTIALLY IN AFTERNOON DUE TO A WEAK TROF...BUT ALL WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES MAGNETIC.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
REMAINING ABV 5 FT INTO TONIGHT. LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS PEAK
AROUND 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS
AROUND AREA INLETS. A FEW NEAR SHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE...BUT
MAINLY UP TO 20 KT EXPECTED.

WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH S/SSE
SWELLS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. DECREASING PROB OF SCA OCEAN SEAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS
MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW
SCA LEVELS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
FORECASTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD...PEAKING SURF AT
GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOCALLY 8 TO 10 FT. THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED WASH-OVERS
WILL BE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TIDE. THE ACCOMPANYING
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT.
SURF GRADUALLY SUBSIDES TONIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JM/DW
MARINE...DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...DS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV/JMC









000
FXUS61 KOKX 281447
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1047 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE DAY AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

GUSTY NW FLOW TODAY IN CAA. DEEP MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE (UPPER 70S INTERIOR...LOWER 80S TO 85
COAST). WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WITH SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER WITH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN INSTABILITY CU...MAINLY ACROSS
INTERIOR...UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS IT DRIFTS
SE OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MAIN STORY WILL BE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL RESULTING IN HIGH SURF
AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES. SEE TIDES AND
COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
IN ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

DIMINISHING WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...EXCEPT LOWER 50S ACROSS PINE BARRENS AND NORTHERN
VALLEYS...LOWER 60S NYC/NJ METRO.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD WITH TRANQUIL CONDS ON FRIDAY.
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED UNDER CANADIAN
HIGH...WITH LATE DAY SEABREEZE LIKELY. FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH RESIDUAL SWELLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE
WEEKEND WEATHER PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN ON
MONDAY...KEEPING THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH AND WEST. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH WILL FINALLY SEND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. FLOW APPEARS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S DUE TO ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S. EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...BUT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS A LITTLE LOWER WITH RIDGING ALOFT. ANOTHER WARM
AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S. THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER SHORTWAVE BRINGS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. THE FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A RETURN TO DRIER AIR
AND AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NW FLOW AT 10-14
KT...WITH GUSTS 15 TO 19 KT UNTIL EARLY EVENING. FLOW BACKS
PARTIALLY IN AFTERNOON DUE TO A WEAK TROF...BUT ALL WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES MAGNETIC.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
REMAINING ABV 5 FT INTO TONIGHT. LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS PEAK
AROUND 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS
AROUND AREA INLETS. A FEW NEAR SHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE...BUT
MAINLY UP TO 20 KT EXPECTED.

WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH S/SSE
SWELLS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. DECREASING PROB OF SCA OCEAN SEAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS
MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW
SCA LEVELS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
FORECASTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD...PEAKING SURF AT
GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOCALLY 8 TO 10 FT. THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED WASH-OVERS
WILL BE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TIDE. THE ACCOMPANYING
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT.
SURF GRADUALLY SUBSIDES TONIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JM/DW
MARINE...DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...DS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV/JMC










000
FXUS61 KOKX 281149
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
749 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE DAY AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

GUSTY NW FLOW TODAY IN CAA. MILD START AND DEEP MIXING SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE (UPPER 70S
INTERIOR...LOWER 80S TO 85 COAST). WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WITH SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY LOWER WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN
INSTABILITY CU...MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR...UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS IT DRIFTS SE OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MAIN STORY WILL BE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL RESULTING IN HIGH SURF
AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES. SEE TIDES AND
COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
IN ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

DIMINISHING WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...EXCEPT LOWER 50S ACROSS PINE BARRENS AND NORTHERN
VALLEYS...LOWER 60S NYC/NJ METRO.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD WITH TRANQUIL CONDS ON FRIDAY.
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED UNDER CANADIAN
HIGH...WITH LATE DAY SEABREEZE LIKELY. FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH RESIDUAL SWELLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE
WEEKEND WEATHER PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN ON
MONDAY...KEEPING THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH AND WEST. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH WILL FINALLY SEND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. FLOW APPEARS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S DUE TO ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S. EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...BUT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS A LITTLE LOWER WITH RIDGING ALOFT. ANOTHER WARM
AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S. THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER SHORTWAVE BRINGS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. THE FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A RETURN TO DRIER AIR
AND AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY...NW FLOW ACROSS THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA.

NW WINDS 330-350 AT AROUND 10-14 KT...WITH GUSTS 15 TO 18 KT FROM
MID MORNING INTO THE AFT. FLOW BACKS A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON DUE
TO A WEAK TROF...BUT MAINLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
REMAINING ABV 5 FT INTO TONIGHT. LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS PEAK
AROUND 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS
AROUND AREA INLETS. A FEW NEAR SHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE...BUT
MAINLY UP TO 20 KT EXPECTED.

WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH S/SSE
SWELLS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. DECREASING PROB OF SCA OCEAN SEAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS
MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW
SCA LEVELS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
FORECASTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THIS
MORNING...PEAKING SURF AT GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY 8 TO 10 FT. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION
AND LOCALIZED WASH-OVERS WILL BE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TIDE. THE ACCOMPANYING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT
THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH THIS EVENING TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT. SURF GRADUALLY
SUBSIDES TONIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...DS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV









000
FXUS61 KOKX 281149
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
749 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE DAY AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

GUSTY NW FLOW TODAY IN CAA. MILD START AND DEEP MIXING SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE (UPPER 70S
INTERIOR...LOWER 80S TO 85 COAST). WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WITH SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY LOWER WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN
INSTABILITY CU...MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR...UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS IT DRIFTS SE OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MAIN STORY WILL BE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL RESULTING IN HIGH SURF
AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES. SEE TIDES AND
COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
IN ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

DIMINISHING WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...EXCEPT LOWER 50S ACROSS PINE BARRENS AND NORTHERN
VALLEYS...LOWER 60S NYC/NJ METRO.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD WITH TRANQUIL CONDS ON FRIDAY.
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED UNDER CANADIAN
HIGH...WITH LATE DAY SEABREEZE LIKELY. FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH RESIDUAL SWELLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE
WEEKEND WEATHER PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN ON
MONDAY...KEEPING THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH AND WEST. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH WILL FINALLY SEND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. FLOW APPEARS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S DUE TO ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S. EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...BUT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS A LITTLE LOWER WITH RIDGING ALOFT. ANOTHER WARM
AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S. THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER SHORTWAVE BRINGS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. THE FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A RETURN TO DRIER AIR
AND AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY...NW FLOW ACROSS THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA.

NW WINDS 330-350 AT AROUND 10-14 KT...WITH GUSTS 15 TO 18 KT FROM
MID MORNING INTO THE AFT. FLOW BACKS A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON DUE
TO A WEAK TROF...BUT MAINLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
REMAINING ABV 5 FT INTO TONIGHT. LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS PEAK
AROUND 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS
AROUND AREA INLETS. A FEW NEAR SHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE...BUT
MAINLY UP TO 20 KT EXPECTED.

WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH S/SSE
SWELLS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. DECREASING PROB OF SCA OCEAN SEAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS
MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW
SCA LEVELS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
FORECASTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THIS
MORNING...PEAKING SURF AT GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY 8 TO 10 FT. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION
AND LOCALIZED WASH-OVERS WILL BE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TIDE. THE ACCOMPANYING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT
THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH THIS EVENING TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT. SURF GRADUALLY
SUBSIDES TONIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...DS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV










000
FXUS61 KOKX 280902
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
502 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE DAY AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

GUSTY NW FLOW TODAY IN CAA. MILD START AND DEEP MIXING SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE (UPPER 70S INTERIOR...LOWER
80S TO 85 COAST). WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WITH SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER WITH
DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN INSTABILITY
CU...MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR...UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AS IT DRIFTS SE OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MAIN STORY WILL BE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL RESULTING IN HIGH SURF
AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES. SEE TIDES AND
COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
IN ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

DIMINISHING WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...EXCEPT LOWER 50S ACROSS PINE BARRENS AND NORTHERN
VALLEYS...LOWER 60S NYC/NJ METRO.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD WITH TRANQUIL CONDS ON FRIDAY.
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED UNDER CANADIAN
HIGH...WITH LATE DAY SEABREEZE LIKELY. FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE
WEEKEND WEATHER PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN ON
MONDAY...KEEPING THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH AND WEST. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH WILL FINALLY SEND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. FLOW APPEARS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S DUE TO ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S. EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...BUT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS A LITTLE LOWER WITH RIDGING ALOFT. ANOTHER WARM
AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S. THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER SHORTWAVE BRINGS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. THE FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A RETURN TO DRIER AIR
AND AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH EASTERN LI AND SE CT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS 330-350 AT AROUND 10 KT...WITH GUSTS 15
TO 18 KT MID MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFT. FLOW BACKS A BIT IN THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO A WEAK TROF...BUT MAINLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
REMAINING ABV 5 FT THRU AT LEAST THU NGT. LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS
PEAK AROUND 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS
AROUND AREA INLETS. A FEW NEAR SHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE...BUT
MAINLY UP TO 20 KT EXPECTED.

WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH S/SSE
SWELLS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. DECREASING PROB OF SCA OCEAN SEAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS
MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW
SCA LEVELS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
FORECASTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THIS
MORNING...PEAKING SURF AT GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY 8 TO 10 FT. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION
AND LOCALIZED WASH-OVERS WILL BE FROM AFTER DAYBREAK THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TIDE. THE ACCOMPANYING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT
THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH THIS EVENING TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT. SURF GRADUALLY
SUBSIDES TONIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...DS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 280902
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
502 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE DAY AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

GUSTY NW FLOW TODAY IN CAA. MILD START AND DEEP MIXING SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE (UPPER 70S INTERIOR...LOWER
80S TO 85 COAST). WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WITH SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER WITH
DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN INSTABILITY
CU...MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR...UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AS IT DRIFTS SE OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MAIN STORY WILL BE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL RESULTING IN HIGH SURF
AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES. SEE TIDES AND
COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
IN ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

DIMINISHING WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...EXCEPT LOWER 50S ACROSS PINE BARRENS AND NORTHERN
VALLEYS...LOWER 60S NYC/NJ METRO.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD WITH TRANQUIL CONDS ON FRIDAY.
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED UNDER CANADIAN
HIGH...WITH LATE DAY SEABREEZE LIKELY. FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE
WEEKEND WEATHER PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN ON
MONDAY...KEEPING THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH AND WEST. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH WILL FINALLY SEND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. FLOW APPEARS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S DUE TO ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S. EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...BUT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS A LITTLE LOWER WITH RIDGING ALOFT. ANOTHER WARM
AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S. THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER SHORTWAVE BRINGS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. THE FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A RETURN TO DRIER AIR
AND AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH EASTERN LI AND SE CT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS 330-350 AT AROUND 10 KT...WITH GUSTS 15
TO 18 KT MID MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFT. FLOW BACKS A BIT IN THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO A WEAK TROF...BUT MAINLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
REMAINING ABV 5 FT THRU AT LEAST THU NGT. LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS
PEAK AROUND 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS
AROUND AREA INLETS. A FEW NEAR SHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE...BUT
MAINLY UP TO 20 KT EXPECTED.

WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH S/SSE
SWELLS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. DECREASING PROB OF SCA OCEAN SEAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS
MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW
SCA LEVELS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
FORECASTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THIS
MORNING...PEAKING SURF AT GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY 8 TO 10 FT. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION
AND LOCALIZED WASH-OVERS WILL BE FROM AFTER DAYBREAK THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TIDE. THE ACCOMPANYING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT
THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH THIS EVENING TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT. SURF GRADUALLY
SUBSIDES TONIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...DS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 280744
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
344 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE DAY AND
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

GUSTY NW FLOW TODAY IN CAA. MILD START AND DEEP MIXING SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE (UPPER 70S INTERIOR...LOWER
80S TO 85 COAST). WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WITH SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER WITH
DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN INSTABILITY
CU...MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR...UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AS IT DRIFTS SE OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MAIN STORY WILL BE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL RESULTING IN HIGH SURF
AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES. SEE TIDES AND
COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
IN ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

DIMINISHING WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...EXCEPT LOWER 50S ACROSS PINE BARRENS AND NORTHERN
VALLEYS...LOWER 60S NYC/NJ METRO.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD WITH TRANQUIL CONDS ON FRIDAY.
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED UNDER CANADIAN
HIGH...WITH LATE DAY SEABREEZE LIKELY. FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE
WEEKEND WEATHER PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN ON
MONDAY...KEEPING THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH AND WEST. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH WILL FINALLY SEND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. FLOW APPEARS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S DUE TO ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S. EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...BUT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS A LITTLE LOWER WITH RIDGING ALOFT. ANOTHER WARM
AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S. THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER SHORTWAVE BRINGS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. THE FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A RETURN TO DRIER AIR
AND AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR EASTERN LI/SE CT BETWEEN 4 AND 5 AM. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS 330-350 AT AROUND 10 KT...WITH GUSTS 15
TO 18 KT MID MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFT. FLOW BACKS A BIT IN THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO A WEAK TROF...BUT MAINLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
REMAINING ABV 5 FT THRU AT LEAST THU NGT. LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS
PEAK AROUND 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS
AROUND AREA INLETS. A FEW NEARSHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE...BUT
MAINLY UP TO 20 KT EXPECTED.

WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH S/SSE
SWELLS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. DECREASING PROB OF SCA OCEAN SEAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS
MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW
SCA LEVELS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
FORECASTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THIS
MORNING...PEAKING SURF AT GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY 8 TO 10 FT. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION
AND LOCALIZED WASH-OVERS WILL BE FROM AFTER DAYBREAK THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TIDE. THE ACCOMPANYING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT
THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH THIS EVENING TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT. SURF GRADUALLY
SUBSIDES TONIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...DS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 280744
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
344 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE DAY AND
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

GUSTY NW FLOW TODAY IN CAA. MILD START AND DEEP MIXING SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE (UPPER 70S INTERIOR...LOWER
80S TO 85 COAST). WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WITH SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER WITH
DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN INSTABILITY
CU...MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR...UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AS IT DRIFTS SE OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MAIN STORY WILL BE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL RESULTING IN HIGH SURF
AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES. SEE TIDES AND
COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
IN ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

DIMINISHING WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...EXCEPT LOWER 50S ACROSS PINE BARRENS AND NORTHERN
VALLEYS...LOWER 60S NYC/NJ METRO.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD WITH TRANQUIL CONDS ON FRIDAY.
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED UNDER CANADIAN
HIGH...WITH LATE DAY SEABREEZE LIKELY. FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE
WEEKEND WEATHER PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN ON
MONDAY...KEEPING THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH AND WEST. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH WILL FINALLY SEND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. FLOW APPEARS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S DUE TO ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S. EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...BUT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS A LITTLE LOWER WITH RIDGING ALOFT. ANOTHER WARM
AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S. THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER SHORTWAVE BRINGS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. THE FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A RETURN TO DRIER AIR
AND AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR EASTERN LI/SE CT BETWEEN 4 AND 5 AM. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS 330-350 AT AROUND 10 KT...WITH GUSTS 15
TO 18 KT MID MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFT. FLOW BACKS A BIT IN THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO A WEAK TROF...BUT MAINLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
REMAINING ABV 5 FT THRU AT LEAST THU NGT. LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS
PEAK AROUND 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS
AROUND AREA INLETS. A FEW NEARSHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE...BUT
MAINLY UP TO 20 KT EXPECTED.

WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH S/SSE
SWELLS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. DECREASING PROB OF SCA OCEAN SEAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS
MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW
SCA LEVELS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
FORECASTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THIS
MORNING...PEAKING SURF AT GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY 8 TO 10 FT. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION
AND LOCALIZED WASH-OVERS WILL BE FROM AFTER DAYBREAK THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TIDE. THE ACCOMPANYING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT
THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH THIS EVENING TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT. SURF GRADUALLY
SUBSIDES TONIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...DS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 280613
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
213 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
THE WAKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING IN
COOLER...DRIER AIR FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NW FLOW WITH DRY WEATHER AND CLR SKIES. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT CU
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY TO BE WARMEST
ALONG THE S COAST DUE TO THE DEEPER MIXING ON NW FLOW. THE MET
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSEST TO THIS SCENARIO. DIURNAL SPREAD OF CLOSE TO
30 DEGREES POSSIBLE THU NGT ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS WHERE
DECOUPLING OCCURS.

A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES
LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...WHEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NYC
NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH...
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS...NEAR KBDR AND KISP.
FRONT WILL CLEAR EASTERN LI/SE CT BETWEEN 4 AND 5 AM. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS 330-350 AT AROUND 10 KT...WITH GUSTS 15
TO 18 KT MID MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFT. FLOW BACKS A BIT IN THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO A WEAK TROF...BUT MAINLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU
TONIGHT. 5 FT S/SSE SWELLS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD PEAK AROUND 6
TO 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHEST EAST...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS AROUND AREA INLETS. A FEW NEARSHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY UP TO 20 KT.

WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH S/SSE
SWELLS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. INCREASING PROB OF SUB SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST

SEAS INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY...AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS FALL BACK TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS FALL BACK TO BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
FORECASTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SCT CONVECTION ON MONDAY MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THIS
MORNING...PEAKING SURF AT GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY 8 TO 10 FT. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION AND
LOCALIZED WASH-OVERS WILL BE FROM AFTER DAYBREAK THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT
THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES TODAY TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT...WITH SURF GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TONIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/FIG
NEAR TERM...JMC/SEARS/NV
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...










000
FXUS61 KOKX 280613
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
213 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
THE WAKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING IN
COOLER...DRIER AIR FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NW FLOW WITH DRY WEATHER AND CLR SKIES. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT CU
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY TO BE WARMEST
ALONG THE S COAST DUE TO THE DEEPER MIXING ON NW FLOW. THE MET
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSEST TO THIS SCENARIO. DIURNAL SPREAD OF CLOSE TO
30 DEGREES POSSIBLE THU NGT ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS WHERE
DECOUPLING OCCURS.

A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES
LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...WHEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NYC
NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH...
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS...NEAR KBDR AND KISP.
FRONT WILL CLEAR EASTERN LI/SE CT BETWEEN 4 AND 5 AM. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS 330-350 AT AROUND 10 KT...WITH GUSTS 15
TO 18 KT MID MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFT. FLOW BACKS A BIT IN THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO A WEAK TROF...BUT MAINLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU
TONIGHT. 5 FT S/SSE SWELLS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD PEAK AROUND 6
TO 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHEST EAST...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS AROUND AREA INLETS. A FEW NEARSHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY UP TO 20 KT.

WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH S/SSE
SWELLS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. INCREASING PROB OF SUB SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST

SEAS INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY...AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS FALL BACK TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS FALL BACK TO BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
FORECASTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SCT CONVECTION ON MONDAY MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THIS
MORNING...PEAKING SURF AT GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY 8 TO 10 FT. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION AND
LOCALIZED WASH-OVERS WILL BE FROM AFTER DAYBREAK THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT
THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES TODAY TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT...WITH SURF GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TONIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/FIG
NEAR TERM...JMC/SEARS/NV
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









000
FXUS61 KOKX 280210
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1010 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
THE WAKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL DOTTING THE AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH. MINIMAL INSTABILITY STILL OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NJ COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WITH A WEAK
VORT MAX PASSING THROUGH EASTERN PA/NJ OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY
PUSH INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING
IN COOLER...DRIER AIR SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE NIGHT.

TEMPS SLOW TO TAPER OFF WITH THE COOLER AIR TAKING ITS TIME TO
MOVE IN SO HAVE UPPED THE TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TO REFLECT LATEST
OBS. HOWEVER...STILL ANTICIPATING FORECASTED LOWS TO OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT SO WILL MAINTAIN THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NW FLOW WITH DRY WEATHER AND CLR SKIES. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT CU
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY TO BE WARMEST
ALONG THE S COAST DUE TO THE DEEPER MIXING ON NW FLOW. THE MET
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSEST TO THIS SCENARIO. DIURNAL SPREAD OF CLOSE TO
30 DEGREES POSSIBLE THU NGT ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS WHERE
DECOUPLING OCCURS.

A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES
LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...WHEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NYC
NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH...
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. WHILE MOST OF
THE RAIN HAS ENDED...A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AFTER
06Z.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND AROUND 10 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND
THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 10 KT. GUSTS DEVELOP UP TO
20 KT DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
REMAINING ABV 5 FT THRU AT LEAST THU NGT. PEAK SEAS OF AROUND 8 FT
EXPECTED THU MRNG...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AROUND AREA
INLETS. OTHERWISE...A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT LATE TNGT THRU THU BEHIND THE CDFNT ON THE OCEAN. MAX
WINDS TO 20 KT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ATTM.

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS FALL BACK TO BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
FORECASTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SCT CONVECTION ON MONDAY MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD 4 FT WAVES AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED DURING THE DAY TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GET WORSE THRU
THU MRNG...BEFORE THE SWELL RETREATS INTO THE N ATLANTIC. AS A
RESULT...A HIGH SURF ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU THU. ALTHOUGH
WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BLW THE 7 FT HIGH SURF CRITERIA INTO
PERHAPS THE EVE...DANGEROUS RIPS WILL CONTINUE. BASED ON THE
OFFSHORE SWELL...THE HIGHEST WAVES SHOULD ARRIVE THU MRNG. THE THU
MRNG HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO PRESENT THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION AND WASH-OVERS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/FIG
NEAR TERM...JMC/SEARS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...BC/MET
MARINE...JMC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...










000
FXUS61 KOKX 280210
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1010 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
THE WAKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL DOTTING THE AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH. MINIMAL INSTABILITY STILL OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NJ COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WITH A WEAK
VORT MAX PASSING THROUGH EASTERN PA/NJ OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY
PUSH INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING
IN COOLER...DRIER AIR SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE NIGHT.

TEMPS SLOW TO TAPER OFF WITH THE COOLER AIR TAKING ITS TIME TO
MOVE IN SO HAVE UPPED THE TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TO REFLECT LATEST
OBS. HOWEVER...STILL ANTICIPATING FORECASTED LOWS TO OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT SO WILL MAINTAIN THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NW FLOW WITH DRY WEATHER AND CLR SKIES. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT CU
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY TO BE WARMEST
ALONG THE S COAST DUE TO THE DEEPER MIXING ON NW FLOW. THE MET
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSEST TO THIS SCENARIO. DIURNAL SPREAD OF CLOSE TO
30 DEGREES POSSIBLE THU NGT ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS WHERE
DECOUPLING OCCURS.

A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES
LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...WHEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NYC
NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH...
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. WHILE MOST OF
THE RAIN HAS ENDED...A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AFTER
06Z.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND AROUND 10 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND
THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 10 KT. GUSTS DEVELOP UP TO
20 KT DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
REMAINING ABV 5 FT THRU AT LEAST THU NGT. PEAK SEAS OF AROUND 8 FT
EXPECTED THU MRNG...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AROUND AREA
INLETS. OTHERWISE...A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT LATE TNGT THRU THU BEHIND THE CDFNT ON THE OCEAN. MAX
WINDS TO 20 KT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ATTM.

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS FALL BACK TO BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
FORECASTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SCT CONVECTION ON MONDAY MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD 4 FT WAVES AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED DURING THE DAY TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GET WORSE THRU
THU MRNG...BEFORE THE SWELL RETREATS INTO THE N ATLANTIC. AS A
RESULT...A HIGH SURF ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU THU. ALTHOUGH
WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BLW THE 7 FT HIGH SURF CRITERIA INTO
PERHAPS THE EVE...DANGEROUS RIPS WILL CONTINUE. BASED ON THE
OFFSHORE SWELL...THE HIGHEST WAVES SHOULD ARRIVE THU MRNG. THE THU
MRNG HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO PRESENT THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION AND WASH-OVERS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/FIG
NEAR TERM...JMC/SEARS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...BC/MET
MARINE...JMC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









000
FXUS61 KOKX 272341
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
741 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/SW CT AS OF
23Z. RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE
FRONT AND UNDER A PASSING VORT MAX...SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH INTO CT.
23Z LAPS STILL SHOWING SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE LOCAL OF THE
STORMS...BUT CIN OF BETWEEN 75-100 J/KG IS IN PLACE ALONG COASTAL
CT. AS SUCH...EXPECTING THE STORMS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY PROGRESS SOUTH. SVR THREAT LOOKS TO BE
OVER...AND EVEN THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH 00/01Z.
AS THE LINE PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS CT...SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION MORE TO ISO-SCT SHOWERS WITH ISO TSTM. THE PCPN THREAT
SHOULD BE DONE BY 06Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH...AND THE NW FLOW IN THE WAKE BRINGS IN A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS. TEMPS AND DEW PTS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT THE LATEST TREND...THOUGH FORECASTED OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
STILL EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NW FLOW WITH DRY WEATHER AND CLR SKIES. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT CU
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY TO BE WARMEST
ALONG THE S COAST DUE TO THE DEEPER MIXING ON NW FLOW. THE MET
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSEST TO THIS SCENARIO. DIURNAL SPREAD OF CLOSE TO
30 DEGREES POSSIBLE THU NGT ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS WHERE
DECOUPLING OCCURS.

THERE CONTINUES A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES
LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...WHEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NYC
NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH...
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT NORTHWEST OF NEW YORK CITY WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
THROUGH 08Z. MOST OF THE TERMINALS WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
THE FRONT...HOWEVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CT.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT AROUND 10 KT. GUSTS DEVELOP UP TO 20 KT DURING THURSDAY
MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THROUGH 02Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN ABV 5 FT THRU AT LEAST THU NGT. PEAK
SEAS OF AROUND 8 FT EXPECTED THU MRNG...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS AROUND AREA INLETS. OTHERWISE...A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT LATE TNGT THRU THU BEHIND THE
CDFNT ON THE OCEAN. MAX WINDS TO 20 KT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ATTM.

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS FALL BACK TO BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
FORECASTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SCT CONVECTION ON MONDAY MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD 4 FT WAVES AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GET WORSE THRU THU MRNG...BEFORE
THE SWELL RETREATS INTO THE N ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...A HIGH
SURF ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU THU. ALTHOUGH WAVES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BLW THE 7 FT HIGH SURF CRITERIA INTO PERHAPS THE
EVE...DANGEROUS RIPS WILL CONTINUE. BASED ON THE OFFSHORE
SWELL...THE HIGHEST WAVES SHOULD ARRIVE THU MRNG. THE THU MRNG
HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO PRESENT THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION AND WASH-OVERS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/FIG
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...BC/MET
MARINE...JMC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









000
FXUS61 KOKX 272341
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
741 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/SW CT AS OF
23Z. RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE
FRONT AND UNDER A PASSING VORT MAX...SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH INTO CT.
23Z LAPS STILL SHOWING SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE LOCAL OF THE
STORMS...BUT CIN OF BETWEEN 75-100 J/KG IS IN PLACE ALONG COASTAL
CT. AS SUCH...EXPECTING THE STORMS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY PROGRESS SOUTH. SVR THREAT LOOKS TO BE
OVER...AND EVEN THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH 00/01Z.
AS THE LINE PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS CT...SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION MORE TO ISO-SCT SHOWERS WITH ISO TSTM. THE PCPN THREAT
SHOULD BE DONE BY 06Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH...AND THE NW FLOW IN THE WAKE BRINGS IN A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS. TEMPS AND DEW PTS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT THE LATEST TREND...THOUGH FORECASTED OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
STILL EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NW FLOW WITH DRY WEATHER AND CLR SKIES. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT CU
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY TO BE WARMEST
ALONG THE S COAST DUE TO THE DEEPER MIXING ON NW FLOW. THE MET
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSEST TO THIS SCENARIO. DIURNAL SPREAD OF CLOSE TO
30 DEGREES POSSIBLE THU NGT ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS WHERE
DECOUPLING OCCURS.

THERE CONTINUES A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES
LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...WHEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NYC
NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH...
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT NORTHWEST OF NEW YORK CITY WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
THROUGH 08Z. MOST OF THE TERMINALS WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
THE FRONT...HOWEVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CT.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT AROUND 10 KT. GUSTS DEVELOP UP TO 20 KT DURING THURSDAY
MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THROUGH 02Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN ABV 5 FT THRU AT LEAST THU NGT. PEAK
SEAS OF AROUND 8 FT EXPECTED THU MRNG...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS AROUND AREA INLETS. OTHERWISE...A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT LATE TNGT THRU THU BEHIND THE
CDFNT ON THE OCEAN. MAX WINDS TO 20 KT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ATTM.

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS FALL BACK TO BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
FORECASTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SCT CONVECTION ON MONDAY MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD 4 FT WAVES AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GET WORSE THRU THU MRNG...BEFORE
THE SWELL RETREATS INTO THE N ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...A HIGH
SURF ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU THU. ALTHOUGH WAVES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BLW THE 7 FT HIGH SURF CRITERIA INTO PERHAPS THE
EVE...DANGEROUS RIPS WILL CONTINUE. BASED ON THE OFFSHORE
SWELL...THE HIGHEST WAVES SHOULD ARRIVE THU MRNG. THE THU MRNG
HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO PRESENT THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION AND WASH-OVERS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/FIG
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...BC/MET
MARINE...JMC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...










000
FXUS61 KOKX 272042
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
442 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LAPS INDICATES OVER 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE FROM ORANGE COUNTY EWD
INTO NRN PUTNAM COUNTY. BASED ON IR...IT APPEARS THE CDFNT IS
FROM NRN VT...TO CNTRL NY STATE...INTO SWRN PA. IN THIS PREFRONTAL
UNSTABLE ZONE...A FEW ISOLD TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING. THE CU FIELD
EVIDENT ON STLT OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY SUGGESTS THAT PERHAPS THE
AREA IS WAITING FOR A BIT MORE UPR SUPPORT.

THIS UPR SUPPORT GETS CLOSE THIS EVE WITH THE PASSING H3 JET
COUPLET. AS A RESULT SCT TSTMS ARE FCST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ALONG
THE COASTS...ENOUGH POOLING INSTABILITY ALONG THE SFC FRONT MAY
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLD COVERAGE TO SUSTAIN OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...SCHC INCLUDED MOST OF THE AREA TNGT.

WRT TSTM INTENSITY...PULSE MODE IS EXPECTED WITH ONLY 30KT OF
0-6KM SHEAR. IN ORDER FOR TSTMS TO UTILIZE MAX DCAPE...THEY WILL
NEED TO REACH THE EL ABV 40K FT. NAM BUFR DOES INDICATE A DRY
LAYER AROUND H6-H5 WHICH COULD HELP HAIL GROWTH. AS A RESULT...AN
ISOLD SVR THREAT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLEARS OUT FROM W TO E LATE TNGT WITH NW FLOW
DEVELOPING.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FACING BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NW FLOW WITH DRY WEATHER AND CLR SKIES. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT CU
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY TO BE WARMEST
ALONG THE S COAST DUE TO THE DEEPER MIXING ON NW FLOW. THE MET
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSEST TO THIS SCENARIO. DIURNAL SPREAD OF CLOSE TO
30 DEGREES POSSIBLE THU NGT ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS WHERE
DECOUPLING OCCURS.

THERE CONTINUES A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES
LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...WHEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NYC
NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH...
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. A COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL
PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM 02Z NORTHWEST TO 08Z EAST. THE FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NEW YORK TERMINALS THIS EVENING.

VFR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFTS
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 10 KT. GUSTS
DEVELOP UP TO 19 KT DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN ABV 5 FT THRU AT LEAST THU NGT. PEAK
SEAS OF AROUND 8 FT EXPECTED THU MRNG...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS AROUND AREA INLETS. OTHERWISE...A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT LATE TNGT THRU THU BEHIND THE
CDFNT ON THE OCEAN. MAX WINDS TO 20 KT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ATTM.

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS FALL BACK TO BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ISOLD URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD TREAT EXISTS WITH ANY TSTMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS EVE/TNGT...HOWEVER STORM MOTION OF 10-15 MPH
WILL HELP TO LIMIT EVEN THIS LOW THREAT.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. SCT CONVECTION ON MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD 4 FT WAVES AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GET WORSE THRU THU MRNG...BEFORE
THE SWELL RETREATS INTO THE N ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...A HIGH
SURF ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU THU. ALTHOUGH WAVES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BLW THE 7 FT HIGH SURF CRITERIA INTO PERHAPS THE
EVE...DANGEROUS RIPS WILL CONTINUE. BASED ON THE OFFSHORE
SWELL...THE HIGHEST WAVES SHOULD ARRIVE THU MRNG. THE THU MRNG
HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO PRESENT THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION AND WASH-OVERS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/FIG
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...BC/MET
MARINE...JMC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...










000
FXUS61 KOKX 272042
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
442 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LAPS INDICATES OVER 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE FROM ORANGE COUNTY EWD
INTO NRN PUTNAM COUNTY. BASED ON IR...IT APPEARS THE CDFNT IS
FROM NRN VT...TO CNTRL NY STATE...INTO SWRN PA. IN THIS PREFRONTAL
UNSTABLE ZONE...A FEW ISOLD TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING. THE CU FIELD
EVIDENT ON STLT OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY SUGGESTS THAT PERHAPS THE
AREA IS WAITING FOR A BIT MORE UPR SUPPORT.

THIS UPR SUPPORT GETS CLOSE THIS EVE WITH THE PASSING H3 JET
COUPLET. AS A RESULT SCT TSTMS ARE FCST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ALONG
THE COASTS...ENOUGH POOLING INSTABILITY ALONG THE SFC FRONT MAY
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLD COVERAGE TO SUSTAIN OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...SCHC INCLUDED MOST OF THE AREA TNGT.

WRT TSTM INTENSITY...PULSE MODE IS EXPECTED WITH ONLY 30KT OF
0-6KM SHEAR. IN ORDER FOR TSTMS TO UTILIZE MAX DCAPE...THEY WILL
NEED TO REACH THE EL ABV 40K FT. NAM BUFR DOES INDICATE A DRY
LAYER AROUND H6-H5 WHICH COULD HELP HAIL GROWTH. AS A RESULT...AN
ISOLD SVR THREAT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLEARS OUT FROM W TO E LATE TNGT WITH NW FLOW
DEVELOPING.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FACING BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NW FLOW WITH DRY WEATHER AND CLR SKIES. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT CU
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY TO BE WARMEST
ALONG THE S COAST DUE TO THE DEEPER MIXING ON NW FLOW. THE MET
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSEST TO THIS SCENARIO. DIURNAL SPREAD OF CLOSE TO
30 DEGREES POSSIBLE THU NGT ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS WHERE
DECOUPLING OCCURS.

THERE CONTINUES A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES
LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...WHEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NYC
NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH...
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. A COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL
PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM 02Z NORTHWEST TO 08Z EAST. THE FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NEW YORK TERMINALS THIS EVENING.

VFR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFTS
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 10 KT. GUSTS
DEVELOP UP TO 19 KT DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN ABV 5 FT THRU AT LEAST THU NGT. PEAK
SEAS OF AROUND 8 FT EXPECTED THU MRNG...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS AROUND AREA INLETS. OTHERWISE...A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT LATE TNGT THRU THU BEHIND THE
CDFNT ON THE OCEAN. MAX WINDS TO 20 KT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ATTM.

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS FALL BACK TO BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ISOLD URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD TREAT EXISTS WITH ANY TSTMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS EVE/TNGT...HOWEVER STORM MOTION OF 10-15 MPH
WILL HELP TO LIMIT EVEN THIS LOW THREAT.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. SCT CONVECTION ON MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD 4 FT WAVES AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GET WORSE THRU THU MRNG...BEFORE
THE SWELL RETREATS INTO THE N ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...A HIGH
SURF ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU THU. ALTHOUGH WAVES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BLW THE 7 FT HIGH SURF CRITERIA INTO PERHAPS THE
EVE...DANGEROUS RIPS WILL CONTINUE. BASED ON THE OFFSHORE
SWELL...THE HIGHEST WAVES SHOULD ARRIVE THU MRNG. THE THU MRNG
HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO PRESENT THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION AND WASH-OVERS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/FIG
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...BC/MET
MARINE...JMC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









000
FXUS61 KOKX 271931
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
331 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LAPS INDICATES OVER 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE FROM ORANGE COUNTY EWD
INTO NRN PUTNAM COUNTY. BASED ON IR...IT APPEARS THE CDFNT IS
FROM NRN VT...TO CNTRL NY STATE...INTO SWRN PA. IN THIS PREFRONTAL
UNSTABLE ZONE...A FEW ISOLD TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING. THE CU FIELD
EVIDENT ON STLT OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY SUGGESTS THAT PERHAPS THE
AREA IS WAITING FOR A BIT MORE UPR SUPPORT.

THIS UPR SUPPORT GETS CLOSE THIS EVE WITH THE PASSING H3 JET
COUPLET. AS A RESULT SCT TSTMS ARE FCST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ALONG
THE COASTS...ENOUGH POOLING INSTABILITY ALONG THE SFC FRONT MAY
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLD COVERAGE TO SUSTAIN OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...SCHC INCLUDED MOST OF THE AREA TNGT.

WRT TSTM INTENSITY...PULSE MODE IS EXPECTED WITH ONLY 30KT OF
0-6KM SHEAR. IN ORDER FOR TSTMS TO UTILIZE MAX DCAPE...THEY WILL
NEED TO REACH THE EL ABV 40K FT. NAM BUFR DOES INDICATE A DRY
LAYER AROUND H6-H5 WHICH COULD HELP HAIL GROWTH. AS A RESULT...AN
ISOLD SVR THREAT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLEARS OUT FROM W TO E LATE TNGT WITH NW FLOW
DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NW FLOW WITH DRY WEATHER AND CLR SKIES. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT CU
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY TO BE WARMEST
ALONG THE S COAST DUE TO THE DEEPER MIXING ON NW FLOW. THE MET
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSEST TO THIS SCENARIO. DIURNAL SPREAD OF CLOSE TO
30 DEGREES POSSIBLE THU NGT ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS WHERE
DECOUPLING OCCURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES
LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...WHEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NYC
NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH...
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. A COLD THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK WILL PASS
THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM 03Z NORTHWEST TO 08Z EAST. THE FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NEW YORK TERMINALS THIS EVENING.

VFR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFTS
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 10 KT. GUSTS
DEVELOP UP TO 19 KT DURING THURSDAY MORNING.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN ABV 5 FT THRU AT LEAST THU NGT. PEAK
SEAS OF AROUND 8 FT EXPECTED THU MRNG...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS AROUND AREA INLETS. OTHERWISE...A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT LATE TNGT THRU THU BEHIND THE
CDFNT ON THE OCEAN. MAX WINDS TO 20 KT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ATTM.

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS FALL BACK TO BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ISOLD URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD TREAT EXISTS WITH ANY TSTMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS EVE/TNGT...HOWEVER STORM MOTION OF 10-15 MPH
WILL HELP TO LIMIT EVEN THIS LOW THREAT.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. SCT CONVECTION ON MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD 4 FT WAVES AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GET WORSE THRU THU MRNG...BEFORE
THE SWELL RETREATS INTO THE N ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...A HIGH
SURF ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU THU. ALTHOUGH WAVES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BLW THE 7 FT HIGH SURF CRITERIA INTO PERHAPS THE
EVE...DANGEROUS RIPS WILL CONTINUE. BASED ON THE OFFSHORE
SWELL...THE HIGHEST WAVES SHOULD ARRIVE THU MRNG. THE THU MRNG
HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO PRESENT THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION AND WASH-OVERS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/FIG
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JMC








000
FXUS61 KOKX 271931
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
331 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LAPS INDICATES OVER 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE FROM ORANGE COUNTY EWD
INTO NRN PUTNAM COUNTY. BASED ON IR...IT APPEARS THE CDFNT IS
FROM NRN VT...TO CNTRL NY STATE...INTO SWRN PA. IN THIS PREFRONTAL
UNSTABLE ZONE...A FEW ISOLD TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING. THE CU FIELD
EVIDENT ON STLT OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY SUGGESTS THAT PERHAPS THE
AREA IS WAITING FOR A BIT MORE UPR SUPPORT.

THIS UPR SUPPORT GETS CLOSE THIS EVE WITH THE PASSING H3 JET
COUPLET. AS A RESULT SCT TSTMS ARE FCST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ALONG
THE COASTS...ENOUGH POOLING INSTABILITY ALONG THE SFC FRONT MAY
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLD COVERAGE TO SUSTAIN OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...SCHC INCLUDED MOST OF THE AREA TNGT.

WRT TSTM INTENSITY...PULSE MODE IS EXPECTED WITH ONLY 30KT OF
0-6KM SHEAR. IN ORDER FOR TSTMS TO UTILIZE MAX DCAPE...THEY WILL
NEED TO REACH THE EL ABV 40K FT. NAM BUFR DOES INDICATE A DRY
LAYER AROUND H6-H5 WHICH COULD HELP HAIL GROWTH. AS A RESULT...AN
ISOLD SVR THREAT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLEARS OUT FROM W TO E LATE TNGT WITH NW FLOW
DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NW FLOW WITH DRY WEATHER AND CLR SKIES. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT CU
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY TO BE WARMEST
ALONG THE S COAST DUE TO THE DEEPER MIXING ON NW FLOW. THE MET
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSEST TO THIS SCENARIO. DIURNAL SPREAD OF CLOSE TO
30 DEGREES POSSIBLE THU NGT ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS WHERE
DECOUPLING OCCURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES
LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...WHEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NYC
NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH...
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. A COLD THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK WILL PASS
THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM 03Z NORTHWEST TO 08Z EAST. THE FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NEW YORK TERMINALS THIS EVENING.

VFR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFTS
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 10 KT. GUSTS
DEVELOP UP TO 19 KT DURING THURSDAY MORNING.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN ABV 5 FT THRU AT LEAST THU NGT. PEAK
SEAS OF AROUND 8 FT EXPECTED THU MRNG...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS AROUND AREA INLETS. OTHERWISE...A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT LATE TNGT THRU THU BEHIND THE
CDFNT ON THE OCEAN. MAX WINDS TO 20 KT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ATTM.

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS FALL BACK TO BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ISOLD URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD TREAT EXISTS WITH ANY TSTMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS EVE/TNGT...HOWEVER STORM MOTION OF 10-15 MPH
WILL HELP TO LIMIT EVEN THIS LOW THREAT.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. SCT CONVECTION ON MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD 4 FT WAVES AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GET WORSE THRU THU MRNG...BEFORE
THE SWELL RETREATS INTO THE N ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...A HIGH
SURF ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU THU. ALTHOUGH WAVES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BLW THE 7 FT HIGH SURF CRITERIA INTO PERHAPS THE
EVE...DANGEROUS RIPS WILL CONTINUE. BASED ON THE OFFSHORE
SWELL...THE HIGHEST WAVES SHOULD ARRIVE THU MRNG. THE THU MRNG
HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO PRESENT THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION AND WASH-OVERS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/FIG
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JMC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 271721
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
121 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR THE NW PORTION OF THE
CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...LIMITED TO NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CITY. TSTMS PROBABLY NOT SEVERE WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATE BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER STRONG GUSTS STILL A
POSSIBILITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

850MB TEMPS OF 17C...A MODERATE W TO SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
HINDERING SEA BREEZES TO A DEGREE...AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS OVER PARTS OF NE NJ/CITY/LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY REACH THE LOWER 90S. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S EXPECTED
FOR MOST OTHER SPOTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STILL
ENOUGH CAPE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE EVENING...THEN ACTIVITY DROPS OFF NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH
STABILIZATION AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG WIND GUSTS STILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH A
SUNNY SKY. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A LESS MUGGY AIRMASS AND LESS
OF A SPREAD AMONG HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. A BLEND OF
NAM/MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED GOOD WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL. DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE EAST COAST TO START THE
WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY FLATTENS TO END THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MAY INTERACT WITH
A BIT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS IT SLIDES THROUGH THE NE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI INTO SAT AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE FROM SLIGHTLY
BELOW TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE FRI INTO SAT.

MODELS STILL WITH A BIT OF TIMING/INTERACTION ISSUES WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGIES FOR SUN INTO MON...BUT OVERALL THEME
IS AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SUN...WHICH GRADUALLY PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
ENERGIES AND INCREASING WARMTH AND SOUTHERN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA EXISTS ACROSS NYC AND
POINTS TO THE W/NW SUN AFT INTO EVENING...TRANSLATING EAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDS LIKELY SUN INTO MON IN DEEP S/SW
FLOW...WITH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE.

A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM TEMPS AND DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. A COLD THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK WILL PASS
THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM 03Z NORTHWEST TO 08Z EAST. THE FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NEW YORK TERMINALS THIS EVENING.

VFR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFTS
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 10 KT. GUSTS
DEVELOP UP TO 19 KT DURING THURSDAY MORNING.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD AND BECOME ROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL MOVES INTO THE
WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...AND PROBABLY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM 2 PM TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS FRI AND THEN EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW SAT INTO SUN MAY PRODUCE
MARGINAL SCA SEAS LATE SUN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

GULF MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION SUN INTO MON. SCT CONVECTION
DURING THIS TIME WOULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD 4 FT WAVES AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GET WORSE THRU THU MRNG...BEFORE
THE SWELL RETREATS INTO THE N ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...HAVE ISSUED
A HIGH SURF ADVY THRU THU. ALTHOUGH WAVES MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF
THE 7 FT CRITERIA INTO THE EARLY EVE...IN THIS CASE THE ADVY
INCLUDES THE DANGEROUS RIP THREAT AS WELL...WHICH IS WHY THE
PRODUCT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO INCLUDE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JMC










000
FXUS61 KOKX 271721
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
121 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR THE NW PORTION OF THE
CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...LIMITED TO NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CITY. TSTMS PROBABLY NOT SEVERE WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATE BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER STRONG GUSTS STILL A
POSSIBILITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

850MB TEMPS OF 17C...A MODERATE W TO SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
HINDERING SEA BREEZES TO A DEGREE...AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS OVER PARTS OF NE NJ/CITY/LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY REACH THE LOWER 90S. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S EXPECTED
FOR MOST OTHER SPOTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STILL
ENOUGH CAPE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE EVENING...THEN ACTIVITY DROPS OFF NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH
STABILIZATION AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG WIND GUSTS STILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH A
SUNNY SKY. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A LESS MUGGY AIRMASS AND LESS
OF A SPREAD AMONG HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. A BLEND OF
NAM/MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED GOOD WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL. DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE EAST COAST TO START THE
WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY FLATTENS TO END THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MAY INTERACT WITH
A BIT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS IT SLIDES THROUGH THE NE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI INTO SAT AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE FROM SLIGHTLY
BELOW TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE FRI INTO SAT.

MODELS STILL WITH A BIT OF TIMING/INTERACTION ISSUES WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGIES FOR SUN INTO MON...BUT OVERALL THEME
IS AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SUN...WHICH GRADUALLY PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
ENERGIES AND INCREASING WARMTH AND SOUTHERN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA EXISTS ACROSS NYC AND
POINTS TO THE W/NW SUN AFT INTO EVENING...TRANSLATING EAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDS LIKELY SUN INTO MON IN DEEP S/SW
FLOW...WITH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE.

A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM TEMPS AND DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. A COLD THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK WILL PASS
THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM 03Z NORTHWEST TO 08Z EAST. THE FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NEW YORK TERMINALS THIS EVENING.

VFR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFTS
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 10 KT. GUSTS
DEVELOP UP TO 19 KT DURING THURSDAY MORNING.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD AND BECOME ROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL MOVES INTO THE
WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...AND PROBABLY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM 2 PM TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS FRI AND THEN EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW SAT INTO SUN MAY PRODUCE
MARGINAL SCA SEAS LATE SUN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

GULF MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION SUN INTO MON. SCT CONVECTION
DURING THIS TIME WOULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD 4 FT WAVES AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GET WORSE THRU THU MRNG...BEFORE
THE SWELL RETREATS INTO THE N ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...HAVE ISSUED
A HIGH SURF ADVY THRU THU. ALTHOUGH WAVES MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF
THE 7 FT CRITERIA INTO THE EARLY EVE...IN THIS CASE THE ADVY
INCLUDES THE DANGEROUS RIP THREAT AS WELL...WHICH IS WHY THE
PRODUCT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO INCLUDE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JMC











000
FXUS61 KOKX 271512
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1112 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REPORTS OF CHEST TO HEAD HIGH SURF ALONG WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS
HAVE STARTED TO COME IN. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GET WORSE THRU THU
MRNG...BEFORE THE SWELL RETREATS INTO THE N ATLANTIC. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVY THRU THU. ALTHOUGH WAVES MAY
FALL JUST SHORT OF THE 7 FT CRITERIA INTO THE EARLY EVE...IN THIS
CASE THE ADVY INCLUDES THE DANGEROUS RIP THREAT AS WELL...WHICH IS
WHY THE PRODUCT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO INCLUDE THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING US DRY THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT WITH THEN
MOVE TO POSITION NEAR THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...LIMITED TO NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CITY. TSTMS PROBABLY NOT SEVERE WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE
BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER STRONG GUSTS STILL A
POSSIBILITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

850MB TEMPS OF 17C...A MODERATE W TO SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
HINDERING SEA BREEZES TO A DEGREE...AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS OVER PARTS OF NE NJ/CITY/LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY REACH THE LOWER 90S. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S EXPECTED
FOR MOST OTHER SPOTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STILL
ENOUGH CAPE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE EVENING...THEN ACTIVITY DROPS OFF NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH
STABILIZATION AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG WIND GUSTS STILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH A
SUNNY SKY. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A LESS MUGGY AIRMASS AND LESS
OF A SPREAD AMONG HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. A BLEND OF
NAM/MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED GOOD WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL. DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL LOWS.

DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED WASHOVERS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHFRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE EAST COAST TO START THE
WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY FLATTENS TO END THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MAY INTERACT WITH
A BIT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS IT SLIDES THROUGH THE NE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI INTO SAT AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE FROM SLIGHTLY
BELOW TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE FRI INTO SAT.

MODELS STILL WITH A BIT OF TIMING/INTERACTION ISSUES WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGIES FOR SUN INTO MON...BUT OVERALL THEME
IS AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SUN...WHICH GRADUALLY PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
ENERGIES AND INCREASING WARMTH AND SOUTHERN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA EXISTS ACROSS NYC AND
POINTS TO THE W/NW SUN AFT INTO EVENING...TRANSLATING EAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDS LIKELY SUN INTO MON IN DEEP S/SW
FLOW...WITH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE.

A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM TEMPS AND DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.
-SHRA POSSIBLE AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER N AND W OF NYC THIS
EVENING.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF LOWERING OF CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE
IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH. SW FLOW INCREASES TODAY
WITH SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR ANY SHOWERS THAT MAY
MAKE IT TO THE TERMINAL.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR ANY SHOWERS THAT MAY
MAKE IT TO THE TERMINAL.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD AND BECOME ROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL MOVES INTO THE
WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...AND PROBABLY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM 2 PM TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS FRI AND THEN EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW SAT INTO SUN MAY PRODUCE
MARGINAL SCA SEAS LATE SUN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

GULF MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION SUN INTO MON. SCT CONVECTION
DURING THIS TIME WOULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...LN/MET
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 271512
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1112 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REPORTS OF CHEST TO HEAD HIGH SURF ALONG WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS
HAVE STARTED TO COME IN. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GET WORSE THRU THU
MRNG...BEFORE THE SWELL RETREATS INTO THE N ATLANTIC. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVY THRU THU. ALTHOUGH WAVES MAY
FALL JUST SHORT OF THE 7 FT CRITERIA INTO THE EARLY EVE...IN THIS
CASE THE ADVY INCLUDES THE DANGEROUS RIP THREAT AS WELL...WHICH IS
WHY THE PRODUCT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO INCLUDE THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING US DRY THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT WITH THEN
MOVE TO POSITION NEAR THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...LIMITED TO NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CITY. TSTMS PROBABLY NOT SEVERE WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE
BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER STRONG GUSTS STILL A
POSSIBILITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

850MB TEMPS OF 17C...A MODERATE W TO SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
HINDERING SEA BREEZES TO A DEGREE...AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS OVER PARTS OF NE NJ/CITY/LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY REACH THE LOWER 90S. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S EXPECTED
FOR MOST OTHER SPOTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STILL
ENOUGH CAPE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE EVENING...THEN ACTIVITY DROPS OFF NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH
STABILIZATION AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG WIND GUSTS STILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH A
SUNNY SKY. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A LESS MUGGY AIRMASS AND LESS
OF A SPREAD AMONG HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. A BLEND OF
NAM/MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED GOOD WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL. DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL LOWS.

DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED WASHOVERS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHFRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE EAST COAST TO START THE
WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY FLATTENS TO END THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MAY INTERACT WITH
A BIT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS IT SLIDES THROUGH THE NE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI INTO SAT AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE FROM SLIGHTLY
BELOW TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE FRI INTO SAT.

MODELS STILL WITH A BIT OF TIMING/INTERACTION ISSUES WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGIES FOR SUN INTO MON...BUT OVERALL THEME
IS AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SUN...WHICH GRADUALLY PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
ENERGIES AND INCREASING WARMTH AND SOUTHERN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA EXISTS ACROSS NYC AND
POINTS TO THE W/NW SUN AFT INTO EVENING...TRANSLATING EAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDS LIKELY SUN INTO MON IN DEEP S/SW
FLOW...WITH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE.

A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM TEMPS AND DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.
-SHRA POSSIBLE AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER N AND W OF NYC THIS
EVENING.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF LOWERING OF CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE
IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH. SW FLOW INCREASES TODAY
WITH SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR ANY SHOWERS THAT MAY
MAKE IT TO THE TERMINAL.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR ANY SHOWERS THAT MAY
MAKE IT TO THE TERMINAL.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD AND BECOME ROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL MOVES INTO THE
WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...AND PROBABLY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM 2 PM TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS FRI AND THEN EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW SAT INTO SUN MAY PRODUCE
MARGINAL SCA SEAS LATE SUN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

GULF MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION SUN INTO MON. SCT CONVECTION
DURING THIS TIME WOULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...LN/MET
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 271110
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
710 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING US DRY THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT WITH THEN
MOVE TO POSITION NEAR THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...LIMITED TO NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CITY. TSTMS PROBABLY NOT SEVERE WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE
BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER STRONG GUSTS STILL A
POSSIBILITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

850MB TEMPS OF 17C...A MODERATE W TO SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
HINDERING SEA BREEZES TO A DEGREE...AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS OVER PARTS OF NE NJ/CITY/LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY REACH THE LOWER 90S. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S EXPECTED
FOR MOST OTHER SPOTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
TODAY...AND THIS RISK WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO HIGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STILL
ENOUGH CAPE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE EVENING...THEN ACTIVITY DROPS OFF NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH
STABILIZATION AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG WIND GUSTS STILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH A
SUNNY SKY. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A LESS MUGGY AIRMASS AND LESS
OF A SPREAD AMONG HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. A BLEND OF
NAM/MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED GOOD WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL. DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL LOWS.

DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED WASHOVERS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHFRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE EAST COAST TO START THE
WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY FLATTENS TO END THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MAY INTERACT WITH
A BIT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS IT SLIDES THROUGH THE NE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI INTO SAT AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE FROM SLIGHTLY
BELOW TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE FRI INTO SAT.

MODELS STILL WITH A BIT OF TIMING/INTERACTION ISSUES WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGIES FOR SUN INTO MON...BUT OVERALL THEME
IS AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SUN...WHICH GRADUALLY PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
ENERGIES AND INCREASING WARMTH AND SOUTHERN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA EXISTS ACROSS NYC AND
POINTS TO THE W/NW SUN AFT INTO EVENING...TRANSLATING EAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDS LIKELY SUN INTO MON IN DEEP S/SW
FLOW...WITH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE.

A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM TEMPS AND DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.
-SHRA POSSIBLE AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER N AND W OF NYC THIS
EVENING.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF LOWERING OF CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE
IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH. SW FLOW INCREASES TODAY
WITH SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR ANY SHOWERS THAT MAY
MAKE IT TO THE TERMINAL.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR ANY SHOWERS THAT MAY
MAKE IT TO THE TERMINAL.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD AND BECOME ROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL MOVES INTO THE
WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...AND PROBABLY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM 2 PM TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS FRI AND THEN EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW SAT INTO SUN MAY PRODUCE
MARGINAL SCA SEAS LATE SUN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

GULF MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION SUN INTO MON. SCT CONVECTION
DURING THIS TIME WOULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV













000
FXUS61 KOKX 270824
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
424 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS US DRY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT WITH THEN MOVE TO POSITION NEAR THE NW
PORTION OF THE CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...LIMITED
TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. TSTMS PROBABLY NOT SEVERE WITH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATE BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER STRONG GUSTS
STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

850MB TEMPS OF 17C...A MODERATE W TO SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
HINDERING SEA BREEZES TO A DEGREE...AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS OVER PARTS OF NE NJ/CITY/LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY REACH THE LOWER 90S. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S EXPECTED
FOR MOST OTHER SPOTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
TODAY...AND THIS RISK WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STILL
ENOUGH CAPE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE EVENING...THEN ACTIVITY DROPS OFF NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH
STABILIZATION AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG WIND GUSTS STILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH A
SUNNY SKY. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A LESS MUGGY AIRMASS AND LESS
OF A SPREAD AMONG HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. A BLEND OF
NAM/MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED GOOD WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL. DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE EAST COAST TO START THE
WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY FLATTENS TO END THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MAY INTERACT WITH
A BIT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS IT SLIDES THROUGH THE NE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI INTO SAT AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE FROM SLIGHTLY
BELOW TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE FRI INTO SAT.

MODELS STILL WITH A BIT OF TIMING/INTERACTION ISSUES WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGIES FOR SUN INTO MON...BUT OVERALL THEME
IS AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SUN...WHICH GRADUALLY PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
ENERGIES AND INCREASING WARMTH AND SOUTHERN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA EXISTS ACROSS NYC AND
POINTS TO THE W/NW SUN AFT INTO EVENING...TRANSLATING EAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDS LIKELY SUN INTO MON IN DEEP S/SW
FLOW...WITH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE.

A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM TEMPS AND DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.
-SHRA POSSIBLE N AND W OF NYC THIS EVENING.

VFR THROUGH FOR MOST OF THE AREA. PATCHY MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING...OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO...IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
FORMATION. ANY WIND WILL BE FROM THE SW AND THAT COULD LIMIT THE
REDUCED CONDS. HI RES DATA IS ONLY HINTING AT IFR CONDS AT KGON AFT
09Z...SO WILL KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY IN JUST FOR KGON.

SW FLOW INCREASES TODAY WITH SEA BREEZES INFLUENCE AT COASTAL
TERMINALS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR ANY SHOWERS THAT MAY
MAKE IT TO THE TERMINAL.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR ANY SHOWERS THAT MAY
MAKE IT TO THE TERMINAL.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR A FOG/STRATUS LAYER
THAT MAY DEVELOP. CIGS/VIS MAY BE LOWER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR A FOG/STRATUS LAYER
THAT MAY DEVELOP. CIGS/VIS MAY BE LOWER THAN FORECAST.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING WITH PCPN.


&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD AND BECOME ROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL MOVES INTO THE
WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...AND PROBABLY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM 2 PM TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS FRI AND THEN EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW SAT INTO SUN MAY PRODUCE
MARGINAL SCA SEAS LATE SUN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

GULF MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION SUN INTO MON. SCT CONVECTION
DURING THIS TIME WOULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 270824
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
424 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS US DRY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT WITH THEN MOVE TO POSITION NEAR THE NW
PORTION OF THE CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...LIMITED
TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. TSTMS PROBABLY NOT SEVERE WITH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATE BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER STRONG GUSTS
STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

850MB TEMPS OF 17C...A MODERATE W TO SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
HINDERING SEA BREEZES TO A DEGREE...AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS OVER PARTS OF NE NJ/CITY/LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY REACH THE LOWER 90S. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S EXPECTED
FOR MOST OTHER SPOTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
TODAY...AND THIS RISK WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STILL
ENOUGH CAPE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE EVENING...THEN ACTIVITY DROPS OFF NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH
STABILIZATION AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG WIND GUSTS STILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH A
SUNNY SKY. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A LESS MUGGY AIRMASS AND LESS
OF A SPREAD AMONG HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. A BLEND OF
NAM/MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED GOOD WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL. DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE EAST COAST TO START THE
WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY FLATTENS TO END THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MAY INTERACT WITH
A BIT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS IT SLIDES THROUGH THE NE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI INTO SAT AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE FROM SLIGHTLY
BELOW TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE FRI INTO SAT.

MODELS STILL WITH A BIT OF TIMING/INTERACTION ISSUES WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGIES FOR SUN INTO MON...BUT OVERALL THEME
IS AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SUN...WHICH GRADUALLY PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
ENERGIES AND INCREASING WARMTH AND SOUTHERN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA EXISTS ACROSS NYC AND
POINTS TO THE W/NW SUN AFT INTO EVENING...TRANSLATING EAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDS LIKELY SUN INTO MON IN DEEP S/SW
FLOW...WITH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE.

A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM TEMPS AND DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.
-SHRA POSSIBLE N AND W OF NYC THIS EVENING.

VFR THROUGH FOR MOST OF THE AREA. PATCHY MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING...OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO...IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
FORMATION. ANY WIND WILL BE FROM THE SW AND THAT COULD LIMIT THE
REDUCED CONDS. HI RES DATA IS ONLY HINTING AT IFR CONDS AT KGON AFT
09Z...SO WILL KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY IN JUST FOR KGON.

SW FLOW INCREASES TODAY WITH SEA BREEZES INFLUENCE AT COASTAL
TERMINALS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR ANY SHOWERS THAT MAY
MAKE IT TO THE TERMINAL.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR ANY SHOWERS THAT MAY
MAKE IT TO THE TERMINAL.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR A FOG/STRATUS LAYER
THAT MAY DEVELOP. CIGS/VIS MAY BE LOWER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR A FOG/STRATUS LAYER
THAT MAY DEVELOP. CIGS/VIS MAY BE LOWER THAN FORECAST.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING WITH PCPN.


&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD AND BECOME ROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL MOVES INTO THE
WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...AND PROBABLY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM 2 PM TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS FRI AND THEN EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW SAT INTO SUN MAY PRODUCE
MARGINAL SCA SEAS LATE SUN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

GULF MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION SUN INTO MON. SCT CONVECTION
DURING THIS TIME WOULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV









000
FXUS61 KOKX 270739
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
339 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS US DRY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT WITH THEN MOVE TO POSITION NEAR THE NW
PORTION OF THE CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...LIMITED
TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. TSTMS PROBABLY NOT SEVERE WITH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATE BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER STRONG GUSTS
STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

850MB TEMPS OF 17C...A MODERATE W TO SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
HINDERING SEA BREEZES TO A DEGREE...AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS OVER PARTS OF NE NJ/CITY/LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY REACH THE LOWER 90S. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S EXPECTED
FOR MOST OTHER SPOTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
TODAY...AND THIS RISK WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STILL
ENOUGH CAPE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE EVENING...THEN ACTIVITY DROPS OFF NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH
STABILIZATION AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG WIND GUSTS STILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH A
SUNNY SKY. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A LESS MUGGY AIRMASS AND LESS
OF A SPREAD AMONG HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. A BLEND OF
NAM/MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED GOOD WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL. DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE EAST COAST TO START THE
WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY FLATTENS TO END THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MAY INTERACT WITH
A BIT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS IT SLIDES THROUGH THE NE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI INTO SAT AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE FROM SLIGHTLY
BELOW TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE FRI INTO SAT.

MODELS STILL WITH A BIT OF TIMING/INTERACTION ISSUES WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGIES FOR SUN INTO MON...BUT OVERALL THEME
IS AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SUN...WHICH GRADUALLY PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
ENERGIES AND INCREASING WARMTH AND SOUTHERN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA EXISTS ACROSS NYC AND
POINTS TO THE W/NW SUN AFT INTO EVENING...TRANSLATING EAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDS LIKELY SUN INTO MON IN DEEP S/SW
FLOW...WITH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE.

A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM TEMPS AND DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WED AS
CRISTOBAL TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA.

VFR THROUGH FOR MOST OF THE AREA. PATCHY MVFR TO IFR CONDS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO...IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
FORMATION. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO LAST NIGHT IS THAT
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM...ANY WIND WILL BE FROM THE
SW AND THAT COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD THE REDUCED
CONDS WOULD BE ON LI AND CT. HI RES DATA IS ONLY HINTING AT IFR
CONDS AT KGON AFT 07Z...SO HAVE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS FORECAST AT
KISP/KBDR.

SW FLOW INCREASES WED MORNING WITH A SEA BREEZES INFLUENCE AT
COASTAL TERMINALS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN THIS
EVE. COVERAGE LOOKS LOW...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED PROB 30S AT SITES
AWAY FROM THE NYC METRO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD AND BECOME ROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL MOVES INTO THE
WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...AND PROBABLY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM 2 PM TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS FRI AND THEN EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW SAT INTO SUN MAY PRODUCE
MARGINAL SCA SEAS LATE SUN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

GULF MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION SUN INTO MON. SCT CONVECTION
DURING THIS TIME WOULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 270739
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
339 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS US DRY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT WITH THEN MOVE TO POSITION NEAR THE NW
PORTION OF THE CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...LIMITED
TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. TSTMS PROBABLY NOT SEVERE WITH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATE BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER STRONG GUSTS
STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

850MB TEMPS OF 17C...A MODERATE W TO SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
HINDERING SEA BREEZES TO A DEGREE...AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS OVER PARTS OF NE NJ/CITY/LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY REACH THE LOWER 90S. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S EXPECTED
FOR MOST OTHER SPOTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
TODAY...AND THIS RISK WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STILL
ENOUGH CAPE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE EVENING...THEN ACTIVITY DROPS OFF NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH
STABILIZATION AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG WIND GUSTS STILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH A
SUNNY SKY. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A LESS MUGGY AIRMASS AND LESS
OF A SPREAD AMONG HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. A BLEND OF
NAM/MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED GOOD WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL. DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE EAST COAST TO START THE
WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY FLATTENS TO END THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MAY INTERACT WITH
A BIT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS IT SLIDES THROUGH THE NE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI INTO SAT AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE FROM SLIGHTLY
BELOW TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE FRI INTO SAT.

MODELS STILL WITH A BIT OF TIMING/INTERACTION ISSUES WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGIES FOR SUN INTO MON...BUT OVERALL THEME
IS AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SUN...WHICH GRADUALLY PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
ENERGIES AND INCREASING WARMTH AND SOUTHERN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA EXISTS ACROSS NYC AND
POINTS TO THE W/NW SUN AFT INTO EVENING...TRANSLATING EAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDS LIKELY SUN INTO MON IN DEEP S/SW
FLOW...WITH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE.

A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM TEMPS AND DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WED AS
CRISTOBAL TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA.

VFR THROUGH FOR MOST OF THE AREA. PATCHY MVFR TO IFR CONDS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO...IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
FORMATION. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO LAST NIGHT IS THAT
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM...ANY WIND WILL BE FROM THE
SW AND THAT COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD THE REDUCED
CONDS WOULD BE ON LI AND CT. HI RES DATA IS ONLY HINTING AT IFR
CONDS AT KGON AFT 07Z...SO HAVE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS FORECAST AT
KISP/KBDR.

SW FLOW INCREASES WED MORNING WITH A SEA BREEZES INFLUENCE AT
COASTAL TERMINALS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN THIS
EVE. COVERAGE LOOKS LOW...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED PROB 30S AT SITES
AWAY FROM THE NYC METRO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD AND BECOME ROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL MOVES INTO THE
WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...AND PROBABLY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM 2 PM TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS FRI AND THEN EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW SAT INTO SUN MAY PRODUCE
MARGINAL SCA SEAS LATE SUN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

GULF MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION SUN INTO MON. SCT CONVECTION
DURING THIS TIME WOULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 270534
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
134 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH THIS UPDATE...ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF LI...MUCH OF CT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AS LIGHT SOUTH FLOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. FURTHER INCREASED
SKY COVER ACROSS SE COASTAL CT AND LI PER METMOS GUIDANCE AND
HINTS OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN RAPID REFRESH ENSEMBLE
DATA/NARRE.

OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND
WEAKENS AS A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DYNAMICS WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND MOISTURE LIMITED. SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH JUST CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
WILL BE SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. BUT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TOWARD 10Z THURSDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS OFF SHORE. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS VERY SIMILAR
AMONG THE MODELS...WITH THE NAM BECOMING A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD
THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY EXPANDS EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. ON THE HEELS OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THU MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THEN OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 12Z ECMWF MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH MAINTAINING A STRONGER
RIDGE ON SUN WITH ANY CONVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON. THAT BEING
THE CASE...HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE SUN WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THOSE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MON AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SE ACROSS THE AREA.

NEARLY SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD...MODERATE TO A
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
ALSO BECOME HUMID SUN INTO MON WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S DUE
TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW SAT INTO MON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WED AS
CRISTOBAL TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA.

VFR THROUGH FOR MOST OF THE AREA. PATCHY MVFR TO IFR CONDS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO...IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
FORMATION. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO LAST NIGHT IS THAT
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM...ANY WIND WILL BE FROM THE
SW AND THAT COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD THE REDUCED
CONDS WOULD BE ON LI AND CT. HI RES DATA IS ONLY HINTING AT IFR
CONDS AT KGON AFT 07Z...SO HAVE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS FORECAST AT
KISP/KBDR.

SW FLOW INCREASES WED MORNING WITH A SEA BREEZES INFLUENCE AT
COASTAL TERMINALS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN THIS
EVE. COVERAGE LOOKS LOW...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED PROB 30S AT SITES
AWAY FROM THE NYC METRO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT. WIND AND GUSTS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RATHER LIGHT FLOW. HOWEVER...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD AND BECOME
ROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL MOVES INTO THE WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

HIGH SEAS DUE TO LONG PERIOD S/SE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL LIKELY PEAK
AROUND 6 TO 8 FT THU MORNING/AFT...BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK TO BELOW 5
FT BY DAYBREAK FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS THU INTO
FRI AND THEN EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW
SAT INTO SUN MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS LATE SUN.

REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SCT CONVECTION SUN INTO MON COULD PRODUCE MAINLY MINOR
NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 270534
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
134 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH THIS UPDATE...ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF LI...MUCH OF CT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AS LIGHT SOUTH FLOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. FURTHER INCREASED
SKY COVER ACROSS SE COASTAL CT AND LI PER METMOS GUIDANCE AND
HINTS OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN RAPID REFRESH ENSEMBLE
DATA/NARRE.

OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND
WEAKENS AS A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DYNAMICS WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND MOISTURE LIMITED. SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH JUST CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
WILL BE SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. BUT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TOWARD 10Z THURSDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS OFF SHORE. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS VERY SIMILAR
AMONG THE MODELS...WITH THE NAM BECOMING A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD
THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY EXPANDS EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. ON THE HEELS OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THU MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THEN OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 12Z ECMWF MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH MAINTAINING A STRONGER
RIDGE ON SUN WITH ANY CONVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON. THAT BEING
THE CASE...HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE SUN WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THOSE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MON AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SE ACROSS THE AREA.

NEARLY SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD...MODERATE TO A
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
ALSO BECOME HUMID SUN INTO MON WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S DUE
TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW SAT INTO MON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WED AS
CRISTOBAL TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA.

VFR THROUGH FOR MOST OF THE AREA. PATCHY MVFR TO IFR CONDS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO...IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
FORMATION. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO LAST NIGHT IS THAT
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM...ANY WIND WILL BE FROM THE
SW AND THAT COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD THE REDUCED
CONDS WOULD BE ON LI AND CT. HI RES DATA IS ONLY HINTING AT IFR
CONDS AT KGON AFT 07Z...SO HAVE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS FORECAST AT
KISP/KBDR.

SW FLOW INCREASES WED MORNING WITH A SEA BREEZES INFLUENCE AT
COASTAL TERMINALS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN THIS
EVE. COVERAGE LOOKS LOW...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED PROB 30S AT SITES
AWAY FROM THE NYC METRO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT. WIND AND GUSTS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RATHER LIGHT FLOW. HOWEVER...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD AND BECOME
ROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL MOVES INTO THE WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

HIGH SEAS DUE TO LONG PERIOD S/SE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL LIKELY PEAK
AROUND 6 TO 8 FT THU MORNING/AFT...BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK TO BELOW 5
FT BY DAYBREAK FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS THU INTO
FRI AND THEN EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW
SAT INTO SUN MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS LATE SUN.

REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SCT CONVECTION SUN INTO MON COULD PRODUCE MAINLY MINOR
NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 270240
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1040 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WITH THIS UPDATE...ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF LI...MUCH OF CT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AS LIGHT SOUTH FLOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. FURTHER INCREASED
SKY COVER ACROSS SE COASTAL CT AND LI PER METMOS GUIDANCE AND
HINTS OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN RAPID REFRESH ENSEMBLE
DATA/NARRE.

OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND
WEAKENS AS A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DYNAMICS WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND MOISTURE LIMITED. SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH JUST CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
WILL BE SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. BUT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TOWARD 10Z THURSDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS OFF SHORE. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS VERY SIMILAR
AMONG THE MODELS...WITH THE NAM BECOMING A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD
THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY EXPANDS EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. ON THE HEELS OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THU MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THEN OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 12Z ECMWF MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH MAINTAINING A STRONGER
RIDGE ON SUN WITH ANY CONVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON. THAT BEING
THE CASE...HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE SUN WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THOSE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MON AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SE ACROSS THE AREA.

NEARLY SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD...MODERATE TO A
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
ALSO BECOME HUMID SUN INTO MON WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S DUE
TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW SAT INTO MON.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WED
AS CRISTOBAL TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. PATCHY MVFR TO IFR CONDS EXPECTED AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO...IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
FORMATION. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO LAST NIGHT IS THAT
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM...ANY WIND WILL BE FROM THE
SW AND THAT COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD THE REDUCED
CONDS WOULD BE ON LI AND CT. HI RES DATA IS ONLY HINTING AT IFR
CONDS AT KGON AFT 07Z...SO HAVE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS FORECAST AT
KISP/KBDR.

SW FLOW INCREASES WED MORNING WITH A SEA BREEZES INFLUENCE AT
COASTAL TERMINALS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN WED
EVE. COVERAGE LOOKS LOW...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED PROB 30S AT THE
30-HR TAF SITES FOR NOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WED THROUGH SUN...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA DURING EVE WITH COLD FROPA.
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT. WIND AND GUSTS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RATHER LIGHT FLOW. HOWEVER...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD AND BECOME
ROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL MOVES INTO THE WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

HIGH SEAS DUE TO LONG PERIOD S/SE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL LIKELY PEAK
AROUND 6 TO 8 FT THU MORNING/AFT...BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK TO BELOW 5
FT BY DAYBREAK FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS THU INTO
FRI AND THEN EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW
SAT INTO SUN MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS LATE SUN.

REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SCT CONVECTION SUN INTO MON COULD PRODUCE MAINLY MINOR
NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO
     6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KOKX 270240
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1040 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WITH THIS UPDATE...ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF LI...MUCH OF CT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AS LIGHT SOUTH FLOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. FURTHER INCREASED
SKY COVER ACROSS SE COASTAL CT AND LI PER METMOS GUIDANCE AND
HINTS OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN RAPID REFRESH ENSEMBLE
DATA/NARRE.

OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND
WEAKENS AS A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DYNAMICS WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND MOISTURE LIMITED. SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH JUST CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
WILL BE SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. BUT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TOWARD 10Z THURSDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS OFF SHORE. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS VERY SIMILAR
AMONG THE MODELS...WITH THE NAM BECOMING A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD
THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY EXPANDS EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. ON THE HEELS OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THU MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THEN OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 12Z ECMWF MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH MAINTAINING A STRONGER
RIDGE ON SUN WITH ANY CONVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON. THAT BEING
THE CASE...HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE SUN WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THOSE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MON AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SE ACROSS THE AREA.

NEARLY SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD...MODERATE TO A
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
ALSO BECOME HUMID SUN INTO MON WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S DUE
TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW SAT INTO MON.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WED
AS CRISTOBAL TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. PATCHY MVFR TO IFR CONDS EXPECTED AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO...IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
FORMATION. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO LAST NIGHT IS THAT
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM...ANY WIND WILL BE FROM THE
SW AND THAT COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD THE REDUCED
CONDS WOULD BE ON LI AND CT. HI RES DATA IS ONLY HINTING AT IFR
CONDS AT KGON AFT 07Z...SO HAVE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS FORECAST AT
KISP/KBDR.

SW FLOW INCREASES WED MORNING WITH A SEA BREEZES INFLUENCE AT
COASTAL TERMINALS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN WED
EVE. COVERAGE LOOKS LOW...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED PROB 30S AT THE
30-HR TAF SITES FOR NOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WED THROUGH SUN...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA DURING EVE WITH COLD FROPA.
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT. WIND AND GUSTS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RATHER LIGHT FLOW. HOWEVER...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD AND BECOME
ROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL MOVES INTO THE WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

HIGH SEAS DUE TO LONG PERIOD S/SE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL LIKELY PEAK
AROUND 6 TO 8 FT THU MORNING/AFT...BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK TO BELOW 5
FT BY DAYBREAK FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS THU INTO
FRI AND THEN EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW
SAT INTO SUN MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS LATE SUN.

REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SCT CONVECTION SUN INTO MON COULD PRODUCE MAINLY MINOR
NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO
     6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KOKX 270158
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
958 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WITH THIS UPDATE...ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF LI...MUCH OF CT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AS LIGHT SOUTH FLOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. FURTHER INCREASED
SKY COVER ACROSS SE COASTAL CT AND LI PER METMOS GUIDANCE AND
HINTS OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN RAPID REFRESH ENSEMBLE
DATA/NARRE.

OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND
WEAKENS AS A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DYNAMICS WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND MOISTURE LIMITED. SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH JUST CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
WILL BE SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. BUT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TOWARD 10Z THURSDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS OFF SHORE. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS VERY SIMILAR
AMONG THE MODELS...WITH THE NAM BECOMING A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD
THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY EXPANDS EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. ON THE HEELS OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THU MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THEN OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 12Z ECMWF MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH MAINTAINING A STRONGER
RIDGE ON SUN WITH ANY CONVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON. THAT BEING
THE CASE...HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE SUN WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THOSE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MON AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SE ACROSS THE AREA.

NEARLY SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD...MODERATE TO A
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
ALSO BECOME HUMID SUN INTO MON WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S DUE
TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW SAT INTO MON.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WED
AS CRISTOBAL TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. PATCHY MVFR TO IFR CONDS EXPECTED AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO...IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
FORMATION. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO LAST NIGHT IS THAT
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM...ANY WIND WILL BE FROM THE
SW AND THAT COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD THE REDUCED
CONDS WOULD BE ON LI AND CT. IT MAY BE MORE CONFINED TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS. WAITING FOR MORE HI RES DATA TO BECOME
AVAIL BEFORE HITTING THINGS HARD AT KISP/KBDR. VSBYS AT KGON MAY
ALSO NEED TO BE LOWER.

SW FLOW INCREASES WED MORNING WITH A SEA BREEZES INFLUENCE AT
COASTAL TERMINALS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN WED
EVE. COVERAGE LOOKS LOW...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED PROB 30S AT THE
30-HR TAF SITES FOR NOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z WED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z WED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC OF SEABREEZE IMPACTING AIRFIELD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC OF SEABREEZE IMPACTING AIRFIELD.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC OF IFR CONDS EARLY WED MORNING.
SEABREEZE EXPECTED BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z WED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC OF IFR CONDS EARLY WED MORNING.
SEABREEZE EXPECTED BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z WED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z WED THROUGH SUN...
.WED AFTN-NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA DURING EVE WITH COLD FROPA.
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT. WIND AND GUSTS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RATHER LIGHT FLOW. HOWEVER...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD AND BECOME
ROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL MOVES INTO THE WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

HIGH SEAS DUE TO LONG PERIOD S/SE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL LIKELY PEAK
AROUND 6 TO 8 FT THU MORNING/AFT...BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK TO BELOW 5
FT BY DAYBREAK FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS THU INTO
FRI AND THEN EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW
SAT INTO SUN MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS LATE SUN.

REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SCT CONVECTION SUN INTO MON COULD PRODUCE MAINLY MINOR
NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO
     6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...GS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 270158
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
958 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WITH THIS UPDATE...ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF LI...MUCH OF CT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AS LIGHT SOUTH FLOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. FURTHER INCREASED
SKY COVER ACROSS SE COASTAL CT AND LI PER METMOS GUIDANCE AND
HINTS OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN RAPID REFRESH ENSEMBLE
DATA/NARRE.

OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND
WEAKENS AS A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DYNAMICS WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND MOISTURE LIMITED. SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH JUST CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
WILL BE SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. BUT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TOWARD 10Z THURSDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS OFF SHORE. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS VERY SIMILAR
AMONG THE MODELS...WITH THE NAM BECOMING A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD
THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY EXPANDS EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. ON THE HEELS OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THU MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THEN OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 12Z ECMWF MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH MAINTAINING A STRONGER
RIDGE ON SUN WITH ANY CONVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON. THAT BEING
THE CASE...HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE SUN WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THOSE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MON AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SE ACROSS THE AREA.

NEARLY SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD...MODERATE TO A
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
ALSO BECOME HUMID SUN INTO MON WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S DUE
TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW SAT INTO MON.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WED
AS CRISTOBAL TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. PATCHY MVFR TO IFR CONDS EXPECTED AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO...IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
FORMATION. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO LAST NIGHT IS THAT
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM...ANY WIND WILL BE FROM THE
SW AND THAT COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD THE REDUCED
CONDS WOULD BE ON LI AND CT. IT MAY BE MORE CONFINED TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS. WAITING FOR MORE HI RES DATA TO BECOME
AVAIL BEFORE HITTING THINGS HARD AT KISP/KBDR. VSBYS AT KGON MAY
ALSO NEED TO BE LOWER.

SW FLOW INCREASES WED MORNING WITH A SEA BREEZES INFLUENCE AT
COASTAL TERMINALS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN WED
EVE. COVERAGE LOOKS LOW...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED PROB 30S AT THE
30-HR TAF SITES FOR NOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z WED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z WED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC OF SEABREEZE IMPACTING AIRFIELD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC OF SEABREEZE IMPACTING AIRFIELD.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC OF IFR CONDS EARLY WED MORNING.
SEABREEZE EXPECTED BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z WED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC OF IFR CONDS EARLY WED MORNING.
SEABREEZE EXPECTED BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z WED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z WED THROUGH SUN...
.WED AFTN-NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA DURING EVE WITH COLD FROPA.
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT. WIND AND GUSTS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RATHER LIGHT FLOW. HOWEVER...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD AND BECOME
ROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL MOVES INTO THE WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

HIGH SEAS DUE TO LONG PERIOD S/SE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL LIKELY PEAK
AROUND 6 TO 8 FT THU MORNING/AFT...BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK TO BELOW 5
FT BY DAYBREAK FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS THU INTO
FRI AND THEN EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW
SAT INTO SUN MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS LATE SUN.

REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SCT CONVECTION SUN INTO MON COULD PRODUCE MAINLY MINOR
NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO
     6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...GS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 270012
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
812 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS AS A PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG AND STRATUS
ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. WITH THIS UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED SKY
COVER ACROSS SE COASTAL CT AND LI PER METMOS GUIDANCE AND HINTS OF
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN RAPID REFRESH ENSEMBLE DATA/NARRE.
WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT MAY NEED TO ADD
SOME FOG IN TO THE FORECAST FOR OUTLYING/COASTAL AREAS WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DYNAMICS WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND MOISTURE LIMITED. SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH JUST CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
WILL BE SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. BUT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TOWARD 10Z THURSDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS OFF SHORE. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS VERY SIMILAR
AMONG THE MODELS...WITH THE NAM BECOMING A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD
THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY EXPANDS EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. ON THE HEELS OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THU MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THEN OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 12Z ECMWF MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH MAINTAINING A STRONGER
RIDGE ON SUN WITH ANY CONVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON. THAT BEING
THE CASE...HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE SUN WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THOSE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MON AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SE ACROSS THE AREA.

NEARLY SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD...MODERATE TO A
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
ALSO BECOME HUMID SUN INTO MON WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S DUE
TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW SAT INTO MON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WED
AS CRISTOBAL TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. PATCHY MVFR TO IFR CONDS EXPECTED AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO...IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
FORMATION. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO LAST NIGHT IS THAT
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM...ANY WIND WILL BE FROM THE
SW AND THAT COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD THE REDUCED
CONDS WOULD BE ON LI AND CT. IT MAY BE MORE CONFINED TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS. WAITING FOR MORE HI RES DATA TO BECOME
AVAIL BEFORE HITTING THINGS HARD AT KISP/KBDR. VSBYS AT KGON MAY
ALSO NEED TO BE LOWER.

SW FLOW INCREASES WED MORNING WITH A SEA BREEZES INFLUENCE AT
COASTAL TERMINALS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN WED
EVE. COVERAGE LOOKS LOW...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED PROB 30S AT THE
30-HR TAF SITES FOR NOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z WED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z WED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC OF SEABREEZE IMPACTING AIRFIELD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC OF SEABREEZE IMPACTING AIRFIELD.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC OF IFR CONDS EARLY WED MORNING.
SEABREEZE EXPECTED BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z WED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC OF IFR CONDS EARLY WED MORNING.
SEABREEZE EXPECTED BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z WED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z WED THROUGH SUN...
.WED AFTN-NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA DURING EVE WITH COLD FROPA.
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT. WIND AND GUSTS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RATHER LIGHT FLOW. HOWEVER...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD AND BECOME
ROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL MOVES INTO THE WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

HIGH SEAS DUE TO LONG PERIOD S/SE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL LIKELY PEAK
AROUND 6 TO 8 FT THU MORNING/AFT...BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK TO BELOW 5
FT BY DAYBREAK FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS THU INTO
FRI AND THEN EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW
SAT INTO SUN MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS LATE SUN.

REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SCT CONVECTION SUN INTO MON COULD PRODUCE MAINLY MINOR
NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO
     6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 270012
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
812 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS AS A PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG AND STRATUS
ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. WITH THIS UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED SKY
COVER ACROSS SE COASTAL CT AND LI PER METMOS GUIDANCE AND HINTS OF
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN RAPID REFRESH ENSEMBLE DATA/NARRE.
WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT MAY NEED TO ADD
SOME FOG IN TO THE FORECAST FOR OUTLYING/COASTAL AREAS WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DYNAMICS WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND MOISTURE LIMITED. SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH JUST CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
WILL BE SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. BUT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TOWARD 10Z THURSDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS OFF SHORE. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS VERY SIMILAR
AMONG THE MODELS...WITH THE NAM BECOMING A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD
THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY EXPANDS EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. ON THE HEELS OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THU MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THEN OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 12Z ECMWF MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH MAINTAINING A STRONGER
RIDGE ON SUN WITH ANY CONVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON. THAT BEING
THE CASE...HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE SUN WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THOSE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MON AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SE ACROSS THE AREA.

NEARLY SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD...MODERATE TO A
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
ALSO BECOME HUMID SUN INTO MON WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S DUE
TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW SAT INTO MON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WED
AS CRISTOBAL TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. PATCHY MVFR TO IFR CONDS EXPECTED AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO...IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
FORMATION. DIFFERENCE TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO LAST NIGHT IS THAT
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM...ANY WIND WILL BE FROM THE
SW AND THAT COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD THE REDUCED
CONDS WOULD BE ON LI AND CT. IT MAY BE MORE CONFINED TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS. WAITING FOR MORE HI RES DATA TO BECOME
AVAIL BEFORE HITTING THINGS HARD AT KISP/KBDR. VSBYS AT KGON MAY
ALSO NEED TO BE LOWER.

SW FLOW INCREASES WED MORNING WITH A SEA BREEZES INFLUENCE AT
COASTAL TERMINALS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN WED
EVE. COVERAGE LOOKS LOW...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED PROB 30S AT THE
30-HR TAF SITES FOR NOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z WED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z WED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC OF SEABREEZE IMPACTING AIRFIELD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC OF SEABREEZE IMPACTING AIRFIELD.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC OF IFR CONDS EARLY WED MORNING.
SEABREEZE EXPECTED BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z WED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC OF IFR CONDS EARLY WED MORNING.
SEABREEZE EXPECTED BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z WED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z WED THROUGH SUN...
.WED AFTN-NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA DURING EVE WITH COLD FROPA.
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT. WIND AND GUSTS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RATHER LIGHT FLOW. HOWEVER...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD AND BECOME
ROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL MOVES INTO THE WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

HIGH SEAS DUE TO LONG PERIOD S/SE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL LIKELY PEAK
AROUND 6 TO 8 FT THU MORNING/AFT...BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK TO BELOW 5
FT BY DAYBREAK FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS THU INTO
FRI AND THEN EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW
SAT INTO SUN MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS LATE SUN.

REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SCT CONVECTION SUN INTO MON COULD PRODUCE MAINLY MINOR
NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO
     6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 262247
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
647 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS AS A PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG AND STRATUS
ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. WITH THIS UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED SKY
COVER ACROSS SE COASTAL CT AND LI PER METMOS GUIDANCE AND HINTS OF
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN RAPID REFRESH ENSEMBLE DATA/NARRE.
WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT MAY NEED TO ADD
SOME FOG IN TO THE FORECAST FOR OUTLYING/COASTAL AREAS WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DYNAMICS WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND MOISTURE LIMITED. SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH JUST CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
WILL BE SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. BUT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TOWARD 10Z THURSDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS OFF SHORE. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS VERY SIMILAR
AMONG THE MODELS...WITH THE NAM BECOMING A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD
THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY EXPANDS EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. ON THE HEELS OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THU MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THEN OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 12Z ECMWF MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH MAINTAINING A STRONGER
RIDGE ON SUN WITH ANY CONVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON. THAT BEING
THE CASE...HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE SUN WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THOSE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MON AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SE ACROSS THE AREA.

NEARLY SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD...MODERATE TO A
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
ALSO BECOME HUMID SUN INTO MON WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S DUE
TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW SAT INTO MON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH
STRATUS/FOG FORMATION...ESP AWAY FROM NYC METRO. TIMING WOULD BE
AFTER 09Z.

S/SE WINDS 8-10 KT THROUGH THE AFTN. SEA BREEZES HAVE FORMED AND
WILL IMPACT COASTAL SITES THROUGH 00Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB
TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTER 13Z FROM THE SW.

LOW CONFIDENCE LIGHT PCPN REACHES AREAS NORTH/WEST OF NYC BEFORE 00Z
TOMORROW. BETTER CHC AFTER 00Z THURS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z WED THROUGH SUN...
.WED AFTN-NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA DURING EVE WITH COLD FROPA.
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT. WIND AND GUSTS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RATHER LIGHT FLOW. HOWEVER...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD AND BECOME
ROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL MOVES INTO THE WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

HIGH SEAS DUE TO LONG PERIOD S/SE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL LIKELY PEAK
AROUND 6 TO 8 FT THU MORNING/AFT...BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK TO BELOW 5
FT BY DAYBREAK FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS THU INTO
FRI AND THEN EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW
SAT INTO SUN MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS LATE SUN.

REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SCT CONVECTION SUN INTO MON COULD PRODUCE MAINLY MINOR
NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO
     6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...GS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 262247
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
647 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS AS A PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG AND STRATUS
ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. WITH THIS UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED SKY
COVER ACROSS SE COASTAL CT AND LI PER METMOS GUIDANCE AND HINTS OF
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN RAPID REFRESH ENSEMBLE DATA/NARRE.
WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT MAY NEED TO ADD
SOME FOG IN TO THE FORECAST FOR OUTLYING/COASTAL AREAS WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DYNAMICS WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND MOISTURE LIMITED. SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH JUST CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
WILL BE SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. BUT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TOWARD 10Z THURSDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS OFF SHORE. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS VERY SIMILAR
AMONG THE MODELS...WITH THE NAM BECOMING A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD
THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY EXPANDS EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. ON THE HEELS OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THU MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THEN OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 12Z ECMWF MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH MAINTAINING A STRONGER
RIDGE ON SUN WITH ANY CONVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON. THAT BEING
THE CASE...HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE SUN WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THOSE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MON AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SE ACROSS THE AREA.

NEARLY SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD...MODERATE TO A
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
ALSO BECOME HUMID SUN INTO MON WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S DUE
TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW SAT INTO MON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH
STRATUS/FOG FORMATION...ESP AWAY FROM NYC METRO. TIMING WOULD BE
AFTER 09Z.

S/SE WINDS 8-10 KT THROUGH THE AFTN. SEA BREEZES HAVE FORMED AND
WILL IMPACT COASTAL SITES THROUGH 00Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB
TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTER 13Z FROM THE SW.

LOW CONFIDENCE LIGHT PCPN REACHES AREAS NORTH/WEST OF NYC BEFORE 00Z
TOMORROW. BETTER CHC AFTER 00Z THURS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z WED THROUGH SUN...
.WED AFTN-NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA DURING EVE WITH COLD FROPA.
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT. WIND AND GUSTS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RATHER LIGHT FLOW. HOWEVER...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD AND BECOME
ROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL MOVES INTO THE WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

HIGH SEAS DUE TO LONG PERIOD S/SE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL LIKELY PEAK
AROUND 6 TO 8 FT THU MORNING/AFT...BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK TO BELOW 5
FT BY DAYBREAK FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS THU INTO
FRI AND THEN EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW
SAT INTO SUN MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS LATE SUN.

REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SCT CONVECTION SUN INTO MON COULD PRODUCE MAINLY MINOR
NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO
     6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...GS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 262042
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
442 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS AS A PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG AND STRATUS
ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DYNAMICS WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND MOISTURE LIMITED. SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH JUST CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
WILL BE SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. BUT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TOWARD 10Z THURSDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS OFF SHORE. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS VERY SIMILAR
AMONG THE MODELS...WITH THE NAM BECOMING A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD
THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY EXPANDS EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. ON THE HEELS OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THU MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THEN OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 12Z ECMWF MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH MAINTAINING A STRONGER
RIDGE ON SUN WITH ANY CONVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON. THAT BEING
THE CASE...HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE SUN WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THOSE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MON AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SE ACROSS THE AREA.

NEARLY SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD...MODERATE TO A
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
ALSO BECOME HUMID SUN INTO MON WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S DUE
TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW SAT INTO MON.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH
STRATUS/FOG FORMATION...ESP AWAY FROM NYC METRO. TIMING WOULD BE
AFTER 09Z.

S/SE WINDS 8-10 KT THROUGH THE AFTN. SEA BREEZES HAVE FORMED AND
WILL IMPACT COASTAL SITES THROUGH 00Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB
TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTER 13Z FROM THE SW.

LOW CONFIDENCE LIGHT PCPN REACHES AREAS NORTH/WEST OF NYC BEFORE 00Z
TOMORROW. BETTER CHC AFTER 00Z THURS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z WED THROUGH SUN...
.WED AFTN-NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA DURING EVE WITH COLD FROPA.
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT. WIND AND GUSTS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RATHER LIGHT FLOW. HOWEVER...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD AND BECOME
ROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL MOVES INTO THE WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

HIGH SEAS DUE TO LONG PERIOD S/SE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL LIKELY PEAK
AROUND 6 TO 8 FT THU MORNING/AFT...BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK TO BELOW 5
FT BY DAYBREAK FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS THU INTO
FRI AND THEN EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW
SAT INTO SUN MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS LATE SUN.

REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SCT CONVECTION SUN INTO MON COULD PRODUCE MAINLY MINOR
NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO
     6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 262042
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
442 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS AS A PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG AND STRATUS
ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DYNAMICS WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND MOISTURE LIMITED. SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH JUST CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
WILL BE SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. BUT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TOWARD 10Z THURSDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS OFF SHORE. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS VERY SIMILAR
AMONG THE MODELS...WITH THE NAM BECOMING A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD
THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY EXPANDS EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. ON THE HEELS OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THU MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THEN OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 12Z ECMWF MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH MAINTAINING A STRONGER
RIDGE ON SUN WITH ANY CONVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON. THAT BEING
THE CASE...HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE SUN WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THOSE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MON AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SE ACROSS THE AREA.

NEARLY SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD...MODERATE TO A
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
ALSO BECOME HUMID SUN INTO MON WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S DUE
TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW SAT INTO MON.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH
STRATUS/FOG FORMATION...ESP AWAY FROM NYC METRO. TIMING WOULD BE
AFTER 09Z.

S/SE WINDS 8-10 KT THROUGH THE AFTN. SEA BREEZES HAVE FORMED AND
WILL IMPACT COASTAL SITES THROUGH 00Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB
TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTER 13Z FROM THE SW.

LOW CONFIDENCE LIGHT PCPN REACHES AREAS NORTH/WEST OF NYC BEFORE 00Z
TOMORROW. BETTER CHC AFTER 00Z THURS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z WED THROUGH SUN...
.WED AFTN-NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA DURING EVE WITH COLD FROPA.
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT. WIND AND GUSTS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RATHER LIGHT FLOW. HOWEVER...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD AND BECOME
ROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL MOVES INTO THE WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

HIGH SEAS DUE TO LONG PERIOD S/SE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL LIKELY PEAK
AROUND 6 TO 8 FT THU MORNING/AFT...BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK TO BELOW 5
FT BY DAYBREAK FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS THU INTO
FRI AND THEN EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW
SAT INTO SUN MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS LATE SUN.

REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SCT CONVECTION SUN INTO MON COULD PRODUCE MAINLY MINOR
NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO
     6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 262035
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
435 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS AS A PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG AND STRATUS
ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DYNAMICS WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND MOISTURE LIMITED. SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH JUST CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
WILL BE SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. BUT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TOWARD 10Z THURSDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS OFF SHORE. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS VERY SIMILAR
AMONG THE MODELS...WITH THE NAM BECOMING A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD
THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY EXPANDS EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. ON THE HEELS OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THU MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THEN OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 12Z ECMWF MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH MAINTAINING A STRONGER
RIDGE ON SUN WITH ANY CONVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON. THAT BEING
THE CASE...HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE SUN WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THOSE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MON AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SE ACROSS THE AREA.

NEARLY SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD...MODERATE TO A
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
ALSO BECOME HUMID SUN INTO MON WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S DUE
TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW SAT INTO MON.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH
STRATUS/FOG FORMATION...ESP AWAY FROM NYC METRO. TIMING WOULD BE
AFTER 09Z.

S/SE WINDS 8-10 KT THROUGH THE AFTN. SEA BREEZES HAVE FORMED AND
WILL IMPACT COASTAL SITES THROUGH 00Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB
TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTER 13Z FROM THE SW.

LOW CONFIDENCE LIGHT PCPN REACHES AREAS NORTH/WEST OF NYC BEFORE 00Z
TOMORROW. BETTER CHC AFTER 00Z THURS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z WED THROUGH SUN...
.WED AFTN-NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA DURING EVE WITH COLD FROPA.
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT. WIND AND GUSTS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RATHER LIGHT FLOW. HOWEVER...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD AND BECOME
ROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL MOVES INTO THE WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

HIGH SEAS DUE TO LONG PERIOD S/SE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL LIKELY PEAK
AROUND 6 TO 8 FT THU MORNING/AFT...BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK TO BELOW 5
FT BY DAYBREAK FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS THU INTO
FRI AND THEN EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW
SAT INTO SUN MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS LATE SUN.

REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SCT CONVECTION SUN INTO MON COULD PRODUCE MAINLY MINOR
NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO
     6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 262035
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
435 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS AS A PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG AND STRATUS
ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DYNAMICS WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND MOISTURE LIMITED. SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH JUST CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
WILL BE SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. BUT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TOWARD 10Z THURSDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS OFF SHORE. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS VERY SIMILAR
AMONG THE MODELS...WITH THE NAM BECOMING A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD
THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY EXPANDS EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. ON THE HEELS OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THU MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THEN OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 12Z ECMWF MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH MAINTAINING A STRONGER
RIDGE ON SUN WITH ANY CONVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON. THAT BEING
THE CASE...HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE SUN WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THOSE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MON AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SE ACROSS THE AREA.

NEARLY SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD...MODERATE TO A
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
ALSO BECOME HUMID SUN INTO MON WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S DUE
TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW SAT INTO MON.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH
STRATUS/FOG FORMATION...ESP AWAY FROM NYC METRO. TIMING WOULD BE
AFTER 09Z.

S/SE WINDS 8-10 KT THROUGH THE AFTN. SEA BREEZES HAVE FORMED AND
WILL IMPACT COASTAL SITES THROUGH 00Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB
TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTER 13Z FROM THE SW.

LOW CONFIDENCE LIGHT PCPN REACHES AREAS NORTH/WEST OF NYC BEFORE 00Z
TOMORROW. BETTER CHC AFTER 00Z THURS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z WED THROUGH SUN...
.WED AFTN-NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA DURING EVE WITH COLD FROPA.
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT. WIND AND GUSTS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RATHER LIGHT FLOW. HOWEVER...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD AND BECOME
ROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL MOVES INTO THE WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

HIGH SEAS DUE TO LONG PERIOD S/SE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL LIKELY PEAK
AROUND 6 TO 8 FT THU MORNING/AFT...BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK TO BELOW 5
FT BY DAYBREAK FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS THU INTO
FRI AND THEN EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW
SAT INTO SUN MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS LATE SUN.

REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SCT CONVECTION SUN INTO MON COULD PRODUCE MAINLY MINOR
NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO
     6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 262015
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
415 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS AS A PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG AND STRATUS
ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DYNAMICS WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND MOISTURE LIMITED. SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH JUST CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
WILL BE SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. BUT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TOWARD 10Z THURSDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS OFF SHORE. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS VERY SIMILAR
AMONG THE MODELS...WITH THE NAM BECOMING A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY EXPANDS EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. ON THE HEELS OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THU MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THEN OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 12Z ECMWF MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH MAINTAINING A STRONGER
RIDGE ON SUN WITH ANY CONVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON. THAT BEING
THE CASE...HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE SUN WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THOSE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MON AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SE ACROSS THE AREA.

NEARLY SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD...MODERATE TO A
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
ALSO BECOME HUMID SUN INTO MON WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S DUE
TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW SAT INTO MON.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH
STRATUS/FOG FORMATION...ESP AWAY FROM NYC METRO. TIMING WOULD BE
AFTER 09Z.

S/SE WINDS 8-10 KT THROUGH THE AFTN. SEA BREEZES HAVE FORMED AND
WILL IMPACT COASTAL SITES THROUGH 00Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB
TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTER 13Z FROM THE SW.

LOW CONFIDENCE LIGHT PCPN REACHES AREAS NORTH/WEST OF NYC BEFORE 00Z
TOMORROW. BETTER CHC AFTER 00Z THURS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z WED THROUGH SUN...
.WED AFTN-NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA DURING EVE WITH COLD FROPA.
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT. WIND AND GUSTS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RATHER LIGHT FLOW. HOWEVER...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD AND BECOME
ROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL MOVES INTO THE WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

HIGH SEAS DUE TO LONG PERIOD S/SE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL LIKELY PEAK
AROUND 6 TO 8 FT THU MORNING/AFT...BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK TO BELOW 5
FT BY DAYBREAK FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS THU INTO
FRI AND THEN EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW
SAT INTO SUN MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS LATE SUN.

REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SCT CONVECTION SUN INTO MON COULD PRODUCE MAINLY MINOR
NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO
     6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 262015
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
415 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS AS A PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG AND STRATUS
ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DYNAMICS WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND MOISTURE LIMITED. SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH JUST CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
WILL BE SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. BUT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TOWARD 10Z THURSDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS OFF SHORE. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS VERY SIMILAR
AMONG THE MODELS...WITH THE NAM BECOMING A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY EXPANDS EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. ON THE HEELS OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THU MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THEN OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 12Z ECMWF MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH MAINTAINING A STRONGER
RIDGE ON SUN WITH ANY CONVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON. THAT BEING
THE CASE...HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE SUN WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THOSE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MON AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SE ACROSS THE AREA.

NEARLY SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD...MODERATE TO A
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
ALSO BECOME HUMID SUN INTO MON WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S DUE
TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW SAT INTO MON.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH
STRATUS/FOG FORMATION...ESP AWAY FROM NYC METRO. TIMING WOULD BE
AFTER 09Z.

S/SE WINDS 8-10 KT THROUGH THE AFTN. SEA BREEZES HAVE FORMED AND
WILL IMPACT COASTAL SITES THROUGH 00Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB
TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTER 13Z FROM THE SW.

LOW CONFIDENCE LIGHT PCPN REACHES AREAS NORTH/WEST OF NYC BEFORE 00Z
TOMORROW. BETTER CHC AFTER 00Z THURS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z WED THROUGH SUN...
.WED AFTN-NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA DURING EVE WITH COLD FROPA.
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT. WIND AND GUSTS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RATHER LIGHT FLOW. HOWEVER...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD AND BECOME
ROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL MOVES INTO THE WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

HIGH SEAS DUE TO LONG PERIOD S/SE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL LIKELY PEAK
AROUND 6 TO 8 FT THU MORNING/AFT...BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK TO BELOW 5
FT BY DAYBREAK FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS THU INTO
FRI AND THEN EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW
SAT INTO SUN MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS LATE SUN.

REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SCT CONVECTION SUN INTO MON COULD PRODUCE MAINLY MINOR
NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO
     6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 261749
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
149 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT THEN APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
SHIFTS OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU. SEA BREEZES HAVE FORMED ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND WERE
PUSHING NORTH...SO ALONG THE COAST HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN
A FEW DEGREES TO REFLECT THE PASSAGE. HOWEVER...FOR INLAND
AREAS...850MB TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO CELSIUS WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...SO EXPECTING WARMEST SPOTS TO TOP OUT AT AROUND 90.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY FOG LATE AWAY FROM THE CITY AND ADJACENT SUBURBAN AREAS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ISN`T VERY
DEEP...BUT ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON AND ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. BULK SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE ORDER OF 25-30KT. SBCAPE FORECAST IS MORE
UNCERTAIN...BUT EVEN IF THEY MANAGE TO TOP 1000 J/KG...UNIMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL.
THERE COULD NEVERTHELESS BE SOME DECENT GUSTS WITH ANY TSTMS THAT
FORM.

850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO 17-18C...AND SEA BREEZE INITIATION AND
PROGRESSION WILL BE LIMITED THE BY APPROACHING FRONT AND MODERATE
WEST TO SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. HIGHS THEREFORE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR
MUCH THE CITY AND SOME INLAND SPOTS. THERE COULD BE A SPOT OR TWO IN
NE NJ REACHING 95. EVEN COASTAL SECTIONS EXPOSED TO SOME FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH AT LEAST INTO THE MID 80S.
SURFACE DEW POINTS MIGHT HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING OUT SIGNIFICANTLY
BASED ON FORECAST DEW POINTS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...BUT
SHOULD STILL BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES NO MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE. COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH
FRIDAY AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOWS SETS UP FRIDAY EVENING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CLOUDS START TO INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MODELS IN AGREEMENT TO KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH IS WHEN DISCREPANCIES START. 25/12Z ECMWF
BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH TO THE EAST QUICKER AND ALLOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO TRAVEL EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR
SOME PRECIP OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS THE OUTLIER. GFS/CMS KEEPS IT
DRY UNTIL SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SAT AFT/EVENING.
HARD TO SAY IF IT IS A WARM FRONT COMING FROM THE SOUTH...OR JUST
ENOUGH SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AND AN AFTERNOON TROUGH THAT IS POPPING
SHOWERS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT
NIGHT DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE.

WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS BUILDS IN FOR SAT AND EVEN MORE FOR SUNDAY
WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE STARTING SUNDAY MORNING. DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE
AS TIMING COULD STILL CHANGE. KEPT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL AS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT IS PRESENT TO GET A FEW RUMBLES.

GENERAL MOSG25/MEN/MEX BLEND WAS REASONABLE FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED ON SAT WITH
TEMPS SUN WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THU AND FRI NIGHT AND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR SAT AND
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT.

VFR TODAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH STRATUS/FOG
FORMATION...ESP AWAY FROM NYC METRO. TIMING WOULD BE AFTR 09Z.

S/SE WINDS 8-10 KT THROUGH THE AFTN. SEA BREEZES HAVE FORMED AND
WILL IMPACT COASTAL SITES THROUGH 00Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB
TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTER 13Z FROM THE SW.

LOW CONFIDENCE LIGHT PCPN REACHES AREAS NORTH/WEST OF NYC BEFORE
00Z TOMORROW...SO NO REFLECTION OF PCPN IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
BETTER CHC AFTR 00Z THURS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH BETWEEN
18-19Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BETWEEN
19Z AND 21Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFTR 20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFTR 20Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SUN...
.WED AFTN-NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA DURING EVE WITH COLD FROPA.
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO SCA LEVELS AS EARLY AS LATE-DAY WEDS ON THE OCEAN
DUE TO SWELL FROM THE TROPICS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH THIS
SWELL...BUT WITH THIS BEING A LATE THIRD PERIOD EVENT...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

OCEAN SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL SLOWLY DIMINISH. IT IS POSSIBLE
TO GET A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO 25 KT ON
THURSDAY BUT SEAS LOOK TO BE THE REAL FACTOR FOR SCA CONDITIONS.
SEAS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROBABLY DO NOT CAUSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS. THEREAFTER...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/LN
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/LN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 261749
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
149 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT THEN APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
SHIFTS OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU. SEA BREEZES HAVE FORMED ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND WERE
PUSHING NORTH...SO ALONG THE COAST HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN
A FEW DEGREES TO REFLECT THE PASSAGE. HOWEVER...FOR INLAND
AREAS...850MB TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO CELSIUS WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...SO EXPECTING WARMEST SPOTS TO TOP OUT AT AROUND 90.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY FOG LATE AWAY FROM THE CITY AND ADJACENT SUBURBAN AREAS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ISN`T VERY
DEEP...BUT ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON AND ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. BULK SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE ORDER OF 25-30KT. SBCAPE FORECAST IS MORE
UNCERTAIN...BUT EVEN IF THEY MANAGE TO TOP 1000 J/KG...UNIMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL.
THERE COULD NEVERTHELESS BE SOME DECENT GUSTS WITH ANY TSTMS THAT
FORM.

850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO 17-18C...AND SEA BREEZE INITIATION AND
PROGRESSION WILL BE LIMITED THE BY APPROACHING FRONT AND MODERATE
WEST TO SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. HIGHS THEREFORE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR
MUCH THE CITY AND SOME INLAND SPOTS. THERE COULD BE A SPOT OR TWO IN
NE NJ REACHING 95. EVEN COASTAL SECTIONS EXPOSED TO SOME FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH AT LEAST INTO THE MID 80S.
SURFACE DEW POINTS MIGHT HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING OUT SIGNIFICANTLY
BASED ON FORECAST DEW POINTS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...BUT
SHOULD STILL BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES NO MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE. COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH
FRIDAY AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOWS SETS UP FRIDAY EVENING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CLOUDS START TO INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MODELS IN AGREEMENT TO KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH IS WHEN DISCREPANCIES START. 25/12Z ECMWF
BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH TO THE EAST QUICKER AND ALLOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO TRAVEL EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR
SOME PRECIP OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS THE OUTLIER. GFS/CMS KEEPS IT
DRY UNTIL SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SAT AFT/EVENING.
HARD TO SAY IF IT IS A WARM FRONT COMING FROM THE SOUTH...OR JUST
ENOUGH SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AND AN AFTERNOON TROUGH THAT IS POPPING
SHOWERS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT
NIGHT DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE.

WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS BUILDS IN FOR SAT AND EVEN MORE FOR SUNDAY
WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE STARTING SUNDAY MORNING. DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE
AS TIMING COULD STILL CHANGE. KEPT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL AS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT IS PRESENT TO GET A FEW RUMBLES.

GENERAL MOSG25/MEN/MEX BLEND WAS REASONABLE FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED ON SAT WITH
TEMPS SUN WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THU AND FRI NIGHT AND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR SAT AND
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT.

VFR TODAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH STRATUS/FOG
FORMATION...ESP AWAY FROM NYC METRO. TIMING WOULD BE AFTR 09Z.

S/SE WINDS 8-10 KT THROUGH THE AFTN. SEA BREEZES HAVE FORMED AND
WILL IMPACT COASTAL SITES THROUGH 00Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB
TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTER 13Z FROM THE SW.

LOW CONFIDENCE LIGHT PCPN REACHES AREAS NORTH/WEST OF NYC BEFORE
00Z TOMORROW...SO NO REFLECTION OF PCPN IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
BETTER CHC AFTR 00Z THURS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH BETWEEN
18-19Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BETWEEN
19Z AND 21Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFTR 20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFTR 20Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SUN...
.WED AFTN-NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA DURING EVE WITH COLD FROPA.
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO SCA LEVELS AS EARLY AS LATE-DAY WEDS ON THE OCEAN
DUE TO SWELL FROM THE TROPICS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH THIS
SWELL...BUT WITH THIS BEING A LATE THIRD PERIOD EVENT...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

OCEAN SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL SLOWLY DIMINISH. IT IS POSSIBLE
TO GET A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO 25 KT ON
THURSDAY BUT SEAS LOOK TO BE THE REAL FACTOR FOR SCA CONDITIONS.
SEAS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROBABLY DO NOT CAUSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS. THEREAFTER...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/LN
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/LN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 261441
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1041 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT THEN APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
SHIFTS OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT EARLIER THIS MORNING
HAS NOW BURNED OFF AND THE AREA IS MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CU BUILDING. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS FOR THIS. A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST FLOW WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL
CONNECTICUT. AS LAND TEMPERATURES INCREASE THE NEXT FEW HOURS SEA
BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH...SO ALONG THE COAST HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN SOME PLACES.

FOR INLAND AREAS...850MB TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO CELSIUS
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...SO EXPECTING WARMEST SPOTS TO TOP OUT AT
AROUND 90.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY FOG LATE AWAY FROM THE CITY AND ADJACENT SUBURBAN AREAS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ISN`T VERY
DEEP...BUT ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON AND ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. BULK SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE ORDER OF 25-30KT. SBCAPE FORECAST IS MORE
UNCERTAIN...BUT EVEN IF THEY MANAGE TO TOP 1000 J/KG...UNIMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL.
THERE COULD NEVERTHELESS BE SOME DECENT GUSTS WITH ANY TSTMS THAT
FORM.

850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO 17-18C...AND SEA BREEZE INITIATION AND
PROGRESSION WILL BE LIMITED THE BY APPROACHING FRONT AND MODERATE
WEST TO SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. HIGHS THEREFORE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR
MUCH THE CITY AND SOME INLAND SPOTS. THERE COULD BE A SPOT OR TWO IN
NE NJ REACHING 95. EVEN COASTAL SECTIONS EXPOSED TO SOME FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH AT LEAST INTO THE MID 80S.
SURFACE DEW POINTS MIGHT HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING OUT SIGNIFICANTLY
BASED ON FORECAST DEW POINTS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...BUT
SHOULD STILL BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES NO MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE. COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH
FRIDAY AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOWS SETS UP FRIDAY EVENING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CLOUDS START TO INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MODELS IN AGREEMENT TO KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH IS WHEN DISCREPANCIES START. 25/12Z ECMWF
BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH TO THE EAST QUICKER AND ALLOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO TRAVEL EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR
SOME PRECIP OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS THE OUTLIER. GFS/CMS KEEPS IT
DRY UNTIL SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SAT AFT/EVENING.
HARD TO SAY IF IT IS A WARM FRONT COMING FROM THE SOUTH...OR JUST
ENOUGH SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AND AN AFTERNOON TROUGH THAT IS POPPING
SHOWERS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT
NIGHT DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE.

WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS BUILDS IN FOR SAT AND EVEN MORE FOR SUNDAY
WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE STARTING SUNDAY MORNING. DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE
AS TIMING COULD STILL CHANGE. KEPT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL AS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT IS PRESENT TO GET A FEW RUMBLES.

GENERAL MOSG25/MEN/MEX BLEND WAS REASONABLE FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED ON SAT WITH
TEMPS SUN WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THU AND FRI NIGHT AND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR SAT AND
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT.

VFR TODAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH STRATUS/FOG
FORMATION...ESP AWAY FROM NYC METRO. TIMING WOULD BE AFTR 06Z.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BCMG S/SE LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE AFTN.
SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 17-20Z.
LIGHT S/SW WINDS TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BETWEEN 17Z
AND 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BETWEEN 19Z
AND 21Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BETWEEN
19Z AND 21Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFTR 19Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFTR 19Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z
AND 20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED...VFR.
.WED NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA DURING EVE WITH COLD FROPA.
.THU-SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO SCA LEVELS AS EARLY AS LATE-DAY WEDS ON THE OCEAN
DUE TO SWELL FROM THE TROPICS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH THIS
SWELL...BUT WITH THIS BEING A LATE THIRD PERIOD EVENT...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

OCEAN SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL SLOWLY DIMINISH. IT IS POSSIBLE
TO GET A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO 25 KT ON
THURSDAY BUT SEAS LOOK TO BE THE REAL FACTOR FOR SCA CONDITIONS.
SEAS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROBABLY DO NOT CAUSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS. THEREAFTER...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/LN
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/LN











000
FXUS61 KOKX 261441
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1041 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT THEN APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
SHIFTS OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT EARLIER THIS MORNING
HAS NOW BURNED OFF AND THE AREA IS MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CU BUILDING. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS FOR THIS. A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST FLOW WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL
CONNECTICUT. AS LAND TEMPERATURES INCREASE THE NEXT FEW HOURS SEA
BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH...SO ALONG THE COAST HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN SOME PLACES.

FOR INLAND AREAS...850MB TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO CELSIUS
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...SO EXPECTING WARMEST SPOTS TO TOP OUT AT
AROUND 90.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY FOG LATE AWAY FROM THE CITY AND ADJACENT SUBURBAN AREAS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ISN`T VERY
DEEP...BUT ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON AND ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. BULK SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE ORDER OF 25-30KT. SBCAPE FORECAST IS MORE
UNCERTAIN...BUT EVEN IF THEY MANAGE TO TOP 1000 J/KG...UNIMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL.
THERE COULD NEVERTHELESS BE SOME DECENT GUSTS WITH ANY TSTMS THAT
FORM.

850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO 17-18C...AND SEA BREEZE INITIATION AND
PROGRESSION WILL BE LIMITED THE BY APPROACHING FRONT AND MODERATE
WEST TO SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. HIGHS THEREFORE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR
MUCH THE CITY AND SOME INLAND SPOTS. THERE COULD BE A SPOT OR TWO IN
NE NJ REACHING 95. EVEN COASTAL SECTIONS EXPOSED TO SOME FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH AT LEAST INTO THE MID 80S.
SURFACE DEW POINTS MIGHT HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING OUT SIGNIFICANTLY
BASED ON FORECAST DEW POINTS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...BUT
SHOULD STILL BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES NO MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE. COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH
FRIDAY AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOWS SETS UP FRIDAY EVENING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CLOUDS START TO INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MODELS IN AGREEMENT TO KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH IS WHEN DISCREPANCIES START. 25/12Z ECMWF
BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH TO THE EAST QUICKER AND ALLOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO TRAVEL EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR
SOME PRECIP OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS THE OUTLIER. GFS/CMS KEEPS IT
DRY UNTIL SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SAT AFT/EVENING.
HARD TO SAY IF IT IS A WARM FRONT COMING FROM THE SOUTH...OR JUST
ENOUGH SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AND AN AFTERNOON TROUGH THAT IS POPPING
SHOWERS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT
NIGHT DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE.

WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS BUILDS IN FOR SAT AND EVEN MORE FOR SUNDAY
WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE STARTING SUNDAY MORNING. DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE
AS TIMING COULD STILL CHANGE. KEPT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL AS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT IS PRESENT TO GET A FEW RUMBLES.

GENERAL MOSG25/MEN/MEX BLEND WAS REASONABLE FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED ON SAT WITH
TEMPS SUN WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THU AND FRI NIGHT AND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR SAT AND
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT.

VFR TODAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH STRATUS/FOG
FORMATION...ESP AWAY FROM NYC METRO. TIMING WOULD BE AFTR 06Z.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BCMG S/SE LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE AFTN.
SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 17-20Z.
LIGHT S/SW WINDS TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BETWEEN 17Z
AND 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BETWEEN 19Z
AND 21Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BETWEEN
19Z AND 21Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFTR 19Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFTR 19Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z
AND 20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED...VFR.
.WED NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA DURING EVE WITH COLD FROPA.
.THU-SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO SCA LEVELS AS EARLY AS LATE-DAY WEDS ON THE OCEAN
DUE TO SWELL FROM THE TROPICS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH THIS
SWELL...BUT WITH THIS BEING A LATE THIRD PERIOD EVENT...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

OCEAN SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL SLOWLY DIMINISH. IT IS POSSIBLE
TO GET A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO 25 KT ON
THURSDAY BUT SEAS LOOK TO BE THE REAL FACTOR FOR SCA CONDITIONS.
SEAS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROBABLY DO NOT CAUSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS. THEREAFTER...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/LN
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/LN










000
FXUS61 KOKX 261104
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
704 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT THEN APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
SHIFTS OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW UPDATES WERE MADE THIS MORNING FOR TEMPS/SKY COVER. A LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LAYER DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF NYC
ALONG WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG. WITHOUT THE EARLY SUN...MANY AREAS
ARE RUNNING QUITE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST. UPDATED THE
SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CLOUD LAYER AND UPDATED THE
TEMPERATURES TO A COOLER TREND. EXPECT THIS FOG/STRATUS TO BURN
OFF BY 13Z AT THE LATEST. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HIGHS FOR
THE DAY.

MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY UNDER A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY
DEVELOP AS WE START OUT WITH A LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS AT THE COAST RELATIVELY COOLER AS
USUAL...BUT STILL AT LEAST IN THE 80S FOR THE MOST PART. FOR INLAND
AREAS...850MB TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO CELSIUS WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. SURFACE TEMPS AT DAYBREAK WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY`S
AS WELL...SO EXPECTING WARMEST SPOTS TOP OUT AT AROUND 90.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY FOG LATE AWAY FROM THE CITY AND ADJACENT SUBURBAN AREAS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ISN`T VERY
DEEP...BUT ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON AND ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. BULK SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE ORDER OF 25-30KT. SBCAPE FORECAST IS MORE
UNCERTAIN...BUT EVEN IF THEY MANAGE TO TOP 1000 J/KG...UNIMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL.
THERE COULD NEVERTHELESS BE SOME DECENT GUSTS WITH ANY TSTMS THAT
FORM.

850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO 17-18C...AND SEA BREEZE INITIATION AND
PROGRESSION WILL BE LIMITED THE BY APPROACHING FRONT AND MODERATE
WEST TO SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. HIGHS THEREFORE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR
MUCH THE CITY AND SOME INLAND SPOTS. THERE COULD BE A SPOT OR TWO IN
NE NJ REACHING 95. EVEN COASTAL SECTIONS EXPOSED TO SOME FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH AT LEAST INTO THE MID 80S.
SURFACE DEW POINTS MIGHT HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING OUT SIGNIFICANTLY
BASED ON FORECAST DEW POINTS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...BUT
SHOULD STILL BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES NO MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE. COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH
FRIDAY AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOWS SETS UP FRIDAY EVENING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CLOUDS START TO INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MODELS IN AGREEMENT TO KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH IS WHEN DISCREPANCIES START. 25/12Z ECMWF
BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH TO THE EAST QUICKER AND ALLOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO TRAVEL EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR
SOME PRECIP OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS THE OUTLIER. GFS/CMS KEEPS IT
DRY UNTIL SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SAT AFT/EVENING.
HARD TO SAY IF IT IS A WARM FRONT COMING FROM THE SOUTH...OR JUST
ENOUGH SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AND AN AFTERNOON TROUGH THAT IS POPPING
SHOWERS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT
NIGHT DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE.

WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS BUILDS IN FOR SAT AND EVEN MORE FOR SUNDAY
WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE STARTING SUNDAY MORNING. DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE
AS TIMING COULD STILL CHANGE. KEPT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL AS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT IS PRESENT TO GET A FEW RUMBLES.

GENERAL MOSG25/MEN/MEX BLEND WAS REASONABLE FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED ON SAT WITH
TEMPS SUN WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THU AND FRI NIGHT AND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR SAT AND
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG/STRATUSEARLY THIS
MORNING AT COASTAL TERMINALS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE. POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN AT COASTAL AND
INTERIOR TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING...BECOMING S/SE LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE AFTN. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS IN
THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT S/SW WINDS TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BETWEEN 17Z
AND 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BETWEEN 19Z
AND 21Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BETWEEN
19Z AND 21Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFT 19Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFT 19Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z
AND 20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED...PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS EARLY WED
MONRING OUTSIDE OF NYC TERMINALS...OTHERWISE VFR.
.WED NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA DURING EVE WITH COLD FROPA.
.THU-SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO SCA LEVELS AS EARLY AS LATE-DAY WEDS ON THE OCEAN
DUE TO SWELL FROM THE TROPICS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH THIS
SWELL...BUT WITH THIS BEING A LATE THIRD PERIOD EVENT...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

OCEAN SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL SLOWLY DIMINISH. IT IS POSSIBLE
TO GET A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO 25 KT ON
THURSDAY BUT SEAS LOOK TO BE THE REAL FACTOR FOR SCA CONDITIONS.
SEAS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROBABLY DO NOT CAUSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS. THEREAFTER...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/LN
NEAR TERM...JC/LN
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/LN
HYDROLOGY...JC/LN











000
FXUS61 KOKX 261104
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
704 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT THEN APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
SHIFTS OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW UPDATES WERE MADE THIS MORNING FOR TEMPS/SKY COVER. A LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LAYER DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF NYC
ALONG WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG. WITHOUT THE EARLY SUN...MANY AREAS
ARE RUNNING QUITE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST. UPDATED THE
SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CLOUD LAYER AND UPDATED THE
TEMPERATURES TO A COOLER TREND. EXPECT THIS FOG/STRATUS TO BURN
OFF BY 13Z AT THE LATEST. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HIGHS FOR
THE DAY.

MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY UNDER A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY
DEVELOP AS WE START OUT WITH A LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS AT THE COAST RELATIVELY COOLER AS
USUAL...BUT STILL AT LEAST IN THE 80S FOR THE MOST PART. FOR INLAND
AREAS...850MB TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO CELSIUS WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. SURFACE TEMPS AT DAYBREAK WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY`S
AS WELL...SO EXPECTING WARMEST SPOTS TOP OUT AT AROUND 90.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY FOG LATE AWAY FROM THE CITY AND ADJACENT SUBURBAN AREAS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ISN`T VERY
DEEP...BUT ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON AND ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. BULK SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE ORDER OF 25-30KT. SBCAPE FORECAST IS MORE
UNCERTAIN...BUT EVEN IF THEY MANAGE TO TOP 1000 J/KG...UNIMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL.
THERE COULD NEVERTHELESS BE SOME DECENT GUSTS WITH ANY TSTMS THAT
FORM.

850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO 17-18C...AND SEA BREEZE INITIATION AND
PROGRESSION WILL BE LIMITED THE BY APPROACHING FRONT AND MODERATE
WEST TO SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. HIGHS THEREFORE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR
MUCH THE CITY AND SOME INLAND SPOTS. THERE COULD BE A SPOT OR TWO IN
NE NJ REACHING 95. EVEN COASTAL SECTIONS EXPOSED TO SOME FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH AT LEAST INTO THE MID 80S.
SURFACE DEW POINTS MIGHT HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING OUT SIGNIFICANTLY
BASED ON FORECAST DEW POINTS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...BUT
SHOULD STILL BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES NO MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE. COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH
FRIDAY AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOWS SETS UP FRIDAY EVENING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CLOUDS START TO INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MODELS IN AGREEMENT TO KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH IS WHEN DISCREPANCIES START. 25/12Z ECMWF
BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH TO THE EAST QUICKER AND ALLOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO TRAVEL EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR
SOME PRECIP OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS THE OUTLIER. GFS/CMS KEEPS IT
DRY UNTIL SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SAT AFT/EVENING.
HARD TO SAY IF IT IS A WARM FRONT COMING FROM THE SOUTH...OR JUST
ENOUGH SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AND AN AFTERNOON TROUGH THAT IS POPPING
SHOWERS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT
NIGHT DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE.

WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS BUILDS IN FOR SAT AND EVEN MORE FOR SUNDAY
WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE STARTING SUNDAY MORNING. DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE
AS TIMING COULD STILL CHANGE. KEPT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL AS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT IS PRESENT TO GET A FEW RUMBLES.

GENERAL MOSG25/MEN/MEX BLEND WAS REASONABLE FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED ON SAT WITH
TEMPS SUN WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THU AND FRI NIGHT AND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR SAT AND
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG/STRATUSEARLY THIS
MORNING AT COASTAL TERMINALS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE. POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN AT COASTAL AND
INTERIOR TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING...BECOMING S/SE LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE AFTN. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS IN
THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT S/SW WINDS TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BETWEEN 17Z
AND 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BETWEEN 19Z
AND 21Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BETWEEN
19Z AND 21Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFT 19Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFT 19Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z
AND 20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED...PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS EARLY WED
MONRING OUTSIDE OF NYC TERMINALS...OTHERWISE VFR.
.WED NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA DURING EVE WITH COLD FROPA.
.THU-SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO SCA LEVELS AS EARLY AS LATE-DAY WEDS ON THE OCEAN
DUE TO SWELL FROM THE TROPICS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH THIS
SWELL...BUT WITH THIS BEING A LATE THIRD PERIOD EVENT...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

OCEAN SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL SLOWLY DIMINISH. IT IS POSSIBLE
TO GET A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO 25 KT ON
THURSDAY BUT SEAS LOOK TO BE THE REAL FACTOR FOR SCA CONDITIONS.
SEAS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROBABLY DO NOT CAUSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS. THEREAFTER...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/LN
NEAR TERM...JC/LN
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/LN
HYDROLOGY...JC/LN










000
FXUS61 KOKX 260846
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
446 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT THEN APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
SHIFTS OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY UNDER A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY
DEVELOP AS WE START OUT WITH A LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS AT THE COAST RELATIVELY COOLER AS
USUAL...BUT STILL AT LEAST IN THE 80S FOR THE MOST PART. FOR INLAND
AREAS...850MB TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO CELSIUS WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. SURFACE TEMPS AT DAYBREAK WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY`S
AS WELL...SO EXPECTING WARMEST SPOTS TOP OUT AT AROUND 90.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY FOG LATE AWAY FROM THE CITY AND ADJACENT SUBURBAN AREAS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ISN`T VERY
DEEP...BUT ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON AND ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. BULK SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE ORDER OF 25-30KT. SBCAPE FORECAST IS MORE
UNCERTAIN...BUT EVEN IF THEY MANAGE TO TOP 1000 J/KG...UNIMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL.
THERE COULD NEVERTHELESS BE SOME DECENT GUSTS WITH ANY TSTMS THAT
FORM.

850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO 17-18C...AND SEA BREEZE INITIATION AND
PROGRESSION WILL BE LIMITED THE BY APPROACHING FRONT AND MODERATE
WEST TO SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. HIGHS THEREFORE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR
MUCH THE CITY AND SOME INLAND SPOTS. THERE COULD BE A SPOT OR TWO IN
NE NJ REACHING 95. EVEN COASTAL SECTIONS EXPOSED TO SOME FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH AT LEAST INTO THE MID 80S.
SURFACE DEW POINTS MIGHT HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING OUT SIGNIFICANTLY
BASED ON FORECAST DEW POINTS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...BUT
SHOULD STILL BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES NO MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE. COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH
FRIDAY AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOWS SETS UP FRIDAY EVENING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CLOUDS START TO INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MODELS IN AGREEMENT TO KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH IS WHEN DISCREPANCIES START. 25/12Z ECMWF
BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH TO THE EAST QUICKER AND ALLOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO TRAVEL EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR
SOME PRECIP OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS THE OUTLIER. GFS/CMS KEEPS IT
DRY UNTIL SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SAT AFT/EVENING.
HARD TO SAY IF IT IS A WARM FRONT COMING FROM THE SOUTH...OR JUST
ENOUGH SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AND AN AFTERNOON TROUGH THAT IS POPPING
SHOWERS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT
NIGHT DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE.

WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS BUILDS IN FOR SAT AND EVEN MORE FOR SUNDAY
WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE STARTING SUNDAY MORNING. DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE
AS TIMING COULD STILL CHANGE. KEPT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL AS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT IS PRESENT TO GET A FEW RUMBLES.

GENERAL MOSG25/MEN/MEX BLEND WAS REASONABLE FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED ON SAT WITH
TEMPS SUN WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THU AND FRI NIGHT AND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR SAT AND
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AT COASTAL CT AND INTERIOR TERMINALS. INTERMITTENT VLIFR
CONDS AT KGON INTO MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING...BECOMING S/SE LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE AFTN. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS IN
THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT S/SW WINDS TONIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BETWEEN 17Z
AND 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BETWEEN 19Z
AND 21Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BETWEEN
19Z AND 21Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFT 19Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFT 19Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z
AND 20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.LATE TONIGHT-WED...PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS LATE
TUE NIGHT OUTSIDE OF NYC TERMINALS...OTHERWISE VFR.
.WED NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA DURING EVE WITH COLD FROPA.
.THU-SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO SCA LEVELS AS EARLY AS LATE-DAY WEDS ON THE OCEAN
DUE TO SWELL FROM THE TROPICS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH THIS
SWELL...BUT WITH THIS BEING A LATE THIRD PERIOD EVENT...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

OCEAN SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL SLOWLY DIMINISH. IT IS POSSIBLE
TO GET A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO 25 KT ON
THURSDAY BUT SEAS LOOK TO BE THE REAL FACTOR FOR SCA CONDITIONS.
SEAS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROBABLY DO NOT CAUSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS. THEREAFTER...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/LN
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/LN
HYDROLOGY...JC/LN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 260846
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
446 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT THEN APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
SHIFTS OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY UNDER A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY
DEVELOP AS WE START OUT WITH A LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS AT THE COAST RELATIVELY COOLER AS
USUAL...BUT STILL AT LEAST IN THE 80S FOR THE MOST PART. FOR INLAND
AREAS...850MB TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO CELSIUS WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. SURFACE TEMPS AT DAYBREAK WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY`S
AS WELL...SO EXPECTING WARMEST SPOTS TOP OUT AT AROUND 90.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY FOG LATE AWAY FROM THE CITY AND ADJACENT SUBURBAN AREAS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ISN`T VERY
DEEP...BUT ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON AND ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. BULK SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE ORDER OF 25-30KT. SBCAPE FORECAST IS MORE
UNCERTAIN...BUT EVEN IF THEY MANAGE TO TOP 1000 J/KG...UNIMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL.
THERE COULD NEVERTHELESS BE SOME DECENT GUSTS WITH ANY TSTMS THAT
FORM.

850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO 17-18C...AND SEA BREEZE INITIATION AND
PROGRESSION WILL BE LIMITED THE BY APPROACHING FRONT AND MODERATE
WEST TO SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. HIGHS THEREFORE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR
MUCH THE CITY AND SOME INLAND SPOTS. THERE COULD BE A SPOT OR TWO IN
NE NJ REACHING 95. EVEN COASTAL SECTIONS EXPOSED TO SOME FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH AT LEAST INTO THE MID 80S.
SURFACE DEW POINTS MIGHT HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING OUT SIGNIFICANTLY
BASED ON FORECAST DEW POINTS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...BUT
SHOULD STILL BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES NO MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE. COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH
FRIDAY AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOWS SETS UP FRIDAY EVENING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CLOUDS START TO INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MODELS IN AGREEMENT TO KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH IS WHEN DISCREPANCIES START. 25/12Z ECMWF
BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH TO THE EAST QUICKER AND ALLOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO TRAVEL EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR
SOME PRECIP OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS THE OUTLIER. GFS/CMS KEEPS IT
DRY UNTIL SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SAT AFT/EVENING.
HARD TO SAY IF IT IS A WARM FRONT COMING FROM THE SOUTH...OR JUST
ENOUGH SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AND AN AFTERNOON TROUGH THAT IS POPPING
SHOWERS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT
NIGHT DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE.

WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS BUILDS IN FOR SAT AND EVEN MORE FOR SUNDAY
WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE STARTING SUNDAY MORNING. DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE
AS TIMING COULD STILL CHANGE. KEPT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL AS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT IS PRESENT TO GET A FEW RUMBLES.

GENERAL MOSG25/MEN/MEX BLEND WAS REASONABLE FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED ON SAT WITH
TEMPS SUN WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THU AND FRI NIGHT AND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR SAT AND
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AT COASTAL CT AND INTERIOR TERMINALS. INTERMITTENT VLIFR
CONDS AT KGON INTO MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING...BECOMING S/SE LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE AFTN. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS IN
THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT S/SW WINDS TONIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BETWEEN 17Z
AND 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BETWEEN 19Z
AND 21Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BETWEEN
19Z AND 21Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFT 19Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFT 19Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z
AND 20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.LATE TONIGHT-WED...PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS LATE
TUE NIGHT OUTSIDE OF NYC TERMINALS...OTHERWISE VFR.
.WED NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA DURING EVE WITH COLD FROPA.
.THU-SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO SCA LEVELS AS EARLY AS LATE-DAY WEDS ON THE OCEAN
DUE TO SWELL FROM THE TROPICS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH THIS
SWELL...BUT WITH THIS BEING A LATE THIRD PERIOD EVENT...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

OCEAN SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL SLOWLY DIMINISH. IT IS POSSIBLE
TO GET A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO 25 KT ON
THURSDAY BUT SEAS LOOK TO BE THE REAL FACTOR FOR SCA CONDITIONS.
SEAS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROBABLY DO NOT CAUSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS. THEREAFTER...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/LN
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/LN
HYDROLOGY...JC/LN








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