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000
FXUS61 KOKX 190242
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1042 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MAINLY HIGH/MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NEAR BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING W/NW AND INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE LOWER
POTENTIAL OF TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUTLYING PARTS OF THE REGION FOR PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FROST.

CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARDS COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...RIDGING TREND IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE AND KEEP A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO QUEBEC WITH WINDS BEING OUT OF THE
NORTH. THE SETUP IS THERE FOR A MUCH WARMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MARINE INFLUENCE TO A MINIMUM AND
DOWNSLOPE WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES EVEN AT THE COAST. MAX
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF 1/2 MAV AND 1/2 GMOS AND INCREASED BY
TWO...PREFERRING THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 5-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT WITH A CUTOFF LOW MOVING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. WHILE THE SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL BE STRONG
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS...AN INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE LOWER DEWPOINTS. WHILE THE LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...THE RH LEVELS WILL BE LOWER...LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY WITH THIS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AT THE COAST. THERE WILL BE
MORE MARINE INFLUENCE. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF ECE AND GMOS AND WILL
BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES. STILL KEEPING CLOUDS LOWER WITH
HIGH PRESSURE NOT TOO FAR AWAY...THEREBY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL AID IN LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. MONDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURE WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WHICH IS NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. 12Z GFS KEEPS THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY
THEREFORE KEPT CONDITIONS DRY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING TONIGHT. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING OF COLD FROPA RANGES FROM 08Z-13Z W
TO E. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING GUSTY ON SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. END TIME OF GUSTS COULD BE A FEW HOURS OFF SAT EVE.

LOW PROBABILITY OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...BUT WOULD EXPECT EASTERN
TERMINALS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHC DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. IT WON`T BE VISIBLE ON IR SAT NOW THAT THE SUN
HAS SET WITH THE VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS OHD...SO OBS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NIGHT-TUE AFTN...VFR.
.TUE LATE AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS...COLD
FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10Z SATURDAY AS LINGERING EASTERLY
SWELL KEEPS HIGHER SEAS WITHIN THE FORECAST COASTAL OCEAN ZONES.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE GAINING CONTROL. ONCE THE SEAS ON THE OCEAN SUBSIDE
EARLY SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE AS WELL THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO MOSTLY 20 KT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SCA EVENT FOR OCEAN SEAS ON SUNDAY WITH THE MORE
EASTERLY FLOW.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SEAS ACROSS OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SCA
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY DAY SATURDAY WITH GUSTY N-NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND THEREFORE LOWER RH VALUES. MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 18 AND 30 PERCENT MOSTLY. WIND GUSTS WILL BE UP TO 20-25
MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE FIRE SPREAD
POTENTIAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAINFALL EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS - IF ANY.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...
MARINE...FIG/JM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...FIG/JM










000
FXUS61 KOKX 190011
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
811 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH OVERALL A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY
WITH NORTHERN BRANCH OF UPPER LEVEL JET STAYING NORTH OF THE
REGION. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NEAR BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND
THEY WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE LOWER POTENTIAL OF TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
THINK ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR FOR AREAS OF FROST WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER BUT WILL
BE VERY LOCALIZED AND RESTRICTED TO BEST COOLING SPOTS FARTHER
SOUTH.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF 3/4 MET AND 1/4 MAV...WHICH
IS PREFERRING THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. VALUES OVERALL WILL BE
AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...RIDGING TREND IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE AND KEEP A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO QUEBEC WITH WINDS BEING OUT OF THE
NORTH. THE SETUP IS THERE FOR A MUCH WARMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MARINE INFLUENCE TO A MINIMUM AND
DOWNSLOPE WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES EVEN AT THE COAST. MAX
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF 1/2 MAV AND 1/2 GMOS AND INCREASED BY
TWO...PREFERRING THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 5-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT WITH A CUTOFF LOW MOVING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. WHILE THE SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL BE STRONG
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS...AN INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE LOWER DEWPOINTS. WHILE THE LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...THE RH LEVELS WILL BE LOWER...LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY WITH THIS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AT THE COAST. THERE WILL BE
MORE MARINE INFLUENCE. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF ECE AND GMOS AND WILL
BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES. STILL KEEPING CLOUDS LOWER WITH
HIGH PRESSURE NOT TOO FAR AWAY...THEREBY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL AID IN LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. MONDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURE WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WHICH IS NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. 12Z GFS KEEPS THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY
THEREFORE KEPT CONDITIONS DRY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING TONIGHT. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING GUSTY ON SAT
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT STRATUS DEVELOPS...BUT IF IT
DOES OCCUR...WOULD EXPECT EASTERN TERMINALS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
CHC DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO SEE ON IR SAT NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET WITH THE VEIL
OF HIGH CLOUDS OHD.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FROPA TIMING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. TIMING OF
GUSTS DIMINISHING MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FROPA TIMING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. TIMING OF
GUSTS DIMINISHING MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FROPA TIMING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. TIMING OF
GUSTS DIMINISHING MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FROPA TIMING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. GUSTS MAY
DIMINISH A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FROPA TIMING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. GUSTS MAY
DIMINISH A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING TONIGHT. FROPA
TIMING BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. GUSTS MAY DIMINISH A A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NIGHT-TUE AFTN...VFR.
.TUE LATE AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS...COLD
FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10Z SATURDAY AS LINGERING EASTERLY
SWELL KEEPS HIGHER SEAS WITHIN THE FORECAST COASTAL OCEAN ZONES.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE GAINING CONTROL. ONCE THE SEAS ON THE OCEAN SUBSIDE
EARLY SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE AS WELL THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO MOSTLY 20 KT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SCA EVENT FOR OCEAN SEAS ON SUNDAY WITH THE MORE
EASTERLY FLOW.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SEAS ACROSS OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SCA
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY DAY SATURDAY WITH GUSTY N-NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND THEREFORE LOWER RH VALUES. MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 18 AND 30 PERCENT MOSTLY. WIND GUSTS WILL BE UP TO 20-25
MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE FIRE SPREAD
POTENTIAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAINFALL EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS - IF ANY.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...
MARINE...FIG/JM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...FIG/JM










000
FXUS61 KOKX 181955
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
355 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL...A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH NORTHERN BRANCH OF
UPPER LEVEL JET STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
NEAR BY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AND FURTHER
SCATTER WITH JUST CIRRUS BY LATE TONIGHT.

AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND
THEY WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY WINDS AND EXTRA CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE
LOWER POTENTIAL OF TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THINK ENOUGH RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR FOR AREAS OF FROST
WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER BUT WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED AND
RESTRICTED TO BEST COOLING SPOTS FARTHER SOUTH.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF 3/4 MET AND 1/4 MAV...WHICH
IS PREFERRING THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. VALUES OVERALL WILL BE
AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...RIDGING TREND IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE AND KEEP A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO QUEBEC WITH WINDS BEING OUT OF THE
NORTH. THE SETUP IS THERE FOR A MUCH WARMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MARINE INFLUENCE TO A MINIMUM AND
DOWNSLOPE WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES EVEN AT THE COAST. MAX
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF 1/2 MAV AND 1/2 GMOS AND INCREASED BY
TWO...PREFERRING THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 5-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT WITH A CUTOFF LOW MOVING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. WHILE THE SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL BE STRONG
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS...AN INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE LOWER DEWPOINTS. WHILE THE LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...THE RH LEVELS WILL BE LOWER...LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY WITH THIS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AT THE COAST. THERE WILL BE
MORE MARINE INFLUENCE. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF ECE AND GMOS AND WILL
BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES. STILL KEEPING CLOUDS LOWER WITH
HIGH PRESSURE NOT TOO FAR AWAY...THEREBY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL AID IN LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. MONDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURE WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WHICH IS NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. 12Z GFS KEEPS THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY
THEREFORE KEPT CONDITIONS DRY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING TONIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
SOUTHEAST-SOUTH FLOW LESS THAN 8 KT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS TOMORROW WILL REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 8-15KT. EXPECT GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE.

LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP AFTER
00Z SATURDAY...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. VFR EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR.
.TUE LATE AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS...COLD
FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10Z SATURDAY AS LINGERING EASTERLY
SWELL KEEPS HIGHER SEAS WITHIN THE FORECAST COASTAL OCEAN ZONES.
THIS AFTERNOON...FOR BUOY 44017 SEAS WERE RUNNING ABOUT 1 FT
HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE GAINING CONTROL. ONCE THE SEAS ON THE OCEAN SUBSIDE
EARLY SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE AS WELL THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO MOSTLY 20 KT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SCA EVENT FOR OCEAN SEAS ON SUNDAY WITH THE MORE
EASTERLY FLOW.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SEAS ACROSS OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SCA
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY DAY SATURDAY WITH GUSTY N-NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND THEREFORE LOWER RH VALUES. MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 18 AND 30 PERCENT MOSTLY. WIND GUSTS WILL BE UP TO 20-25
MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE ANY FIRE SPREAD
POTENTIAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAINFALL EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS - IF ANY.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...FIG/JM
FIRE WEATHER...JM
HYDROLOGY...FIG/JM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 181818
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
218 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH THEN SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING A STRONGER INFLUENCE IN TERMS OF MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE
SCATTERED...MANY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN...MITIGATING SOLAR
INSOLATION. HENCE...MAX TEMPS WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY AGAIN WITH THE
UPDATE. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
WITH LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST WESTERN AREAS SUCH AS ORANGE
COUNTY...FARTHEST AWAY FROM THE EASTERLY WIND.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE
NORTHEAST AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED IN KEEPING THE FRONT TO THE
NORTH...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA AS THE MAIN
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL.
A PASSING VORT MAX WILL KEEP THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A WARMING TREND WITH
WAA...THE COMBINATION OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW...AND CLOUD COVER WILL
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH SETTING UP BRIEFLY OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE TROUGH IS QUICKLY
REPLACED BY THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE...BUILDING SOUTH AND EAST FROM
CANADA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT AGAIN MAIN
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING AT THE SURFACE
ALONG WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT. RIDGING SETS
UP QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH FOR SATURDAY AND WITH
BUILDING SUBSIDENCE...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND SUNNY DAY ONCE
THE MORNING CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TONIGHT...AND THEN EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING INFLUENCE.

INCREASED WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES ON SATURDAY COULD LEAD TO AN
ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE...WITH
SUSTAINED 10-15 MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CORRESPONDING WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY AND WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER IN
THIS TIME FRAME. FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES NEAR NORMAL IN NYC PROPER...AND A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE. FOR HIGHS SUNDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN
FROM 925-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT READINGS TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY...THEN
EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY...BUT COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEVELOPING FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH.

TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHARPEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF IT LIKELY
CONFINED TO THE NW 1/3-1/2 OF THE CWA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO E
PA/UPSTATE NY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BEGINS TO TAKE ON A BIT OF A
NEGATIVE TILT...WOULD EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...NOTING SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
TIMING...AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
CHANCE AT THIS TIME.

SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION EXITS TO THE E
ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE 00Z CMC
AND GFS WHEN COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW SOON
WILL A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO NEGATIVELY TILT
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THIS CUTOFF LIFT TO THE
NE. FOR NOW...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION...AS SLOWER IS OFTEN THE BETTER FORECAST WITH NEGATIVELY
TILTED SYSTEMS. AS A RESULT DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE NE 1/3 OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...WITH A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR TO
THE NE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THAT THE FORECAST COULD LATER
EVOLVE INTO A CLOUDIER ONE WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THIS TIME
FRAME.

FOR TEMPERATURES MONDAY-THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN NEAR
NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME AREAS MAINLY FROM NYC ON W HITTING 70. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
FOR NOW SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE
OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...IF THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW ENDS UP CLOSER
TO THE AREA...THEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. WITH JUST MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES TURNING WINDS S AT 8-12 KT.

WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST THEN NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. WINDS TOMORROW WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
8-15KT.

LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP AFTER
00Z SATURDAY...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. VFR EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR.
.TUE LATE AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS...COLD
FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS EXTENDED UNTIL 10Z SATURDAY AS LINGERING
EASTERLY SWELL KEEPS HIGHER SEAS WITHIN THE FORECAST COASTAL OCEAN
ZONES. THIS AFTERNOON...BUOY 44017 SEAS WERE RUNNING ABOUT 1 FT HIGHER
THAN WAVEWATCH.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ONCE
THE SEAS ON THE OCEAN SUBSIDE TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THERE AS WELL.

AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH WINDS ON NON-OCEAN WATERS 10 KT OR LESS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS COULD
EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SHOULD ALSO BE
10 KT OR LESS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS - IF ANY.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS
NEAR TERM...JM/SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JM/MALOIT/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/SEARS










000
FXUS61 KOKX 181436
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1036 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH THEN SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO TUESDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TEMPERTURES...DEWPOINTS...AND CLOUD COVERAGE. INCREASED
CLOUDS AS MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. THIS WAS EVIDENT IN THE OKX 12Z SOUNDING NEAR 925MB.
MAX TEMPS WERE DECREASED A FEW DEGREES AS WELL...MORE SO FOR
COASTAL SECTIONS WITH MORE MARITIME INFLUENCE. UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT WHEN THE INVERSION
BREAKS. LIKEWISE...MAX TEMPS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES TOO LOW IF
THIS OCCURS.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE
NORTHEAST AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED IN KEEPING THE FRONT TO THE
NORTH...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA AS THE MAIN
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL.
STRATUS IN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NYC/LONG ISLAND IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW. AS THE WINDS
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH...SHOULD SEE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT BUT A PASSING VORT MAX WILL KEEP THE INCREASED SKY
COVERAGE...INCREASING THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A WARMING TREND WITH WAA...THE
COMBINATION OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW...AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES STILL ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH SETTING UP BRIEFLY OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE TROUGH IS QUICKLY
REPLACED BY THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE...BUILDING SOUTH AND EAST FROM
CANADA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT AGAIN MAIN
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING AT THE SURFACE
ALONG WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT. RIDGING SETS
UP QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH FOR SATURDAY AND WITH
BUILDING SUBSIDENCE...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND SUNNY DAY ONCE
THE MORNING CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TONIGHT...AND THEN EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING INFLUENCE.

INCREASED WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES ON SATURDAY COULD LEAD TO AN
ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE...WITH
SUSTAINED 10-15 MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CORRESPONDING WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY AND WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER IN
THIS TIME FRAME. FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES NEAR NORMAL IN NYC PROPER...AND A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE. FOR HIGHS SUNDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN
FROM 925-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT READINGS TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY...THEN
EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY...BUT COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEVELOPING FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH.

TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHARPEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF IT LIKELY
CONFINED TO THE NW 1/3-1/2 OF THE CWA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO E
PA/UPSTATE NY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BEGINS TO TAKE ON A BIT OF A
NEGATIVE TILT...WOULD EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...NOTING SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
TIMING...AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
CHANCE AT THIS TIME.

SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION EXITS TO THE E
ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE 00Z CMC
AND GFS WHEN COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW SOON
WILL A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO NEGATIVELY TILT
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THIS CUTOFF LIFT TO THE
NE. FOR NOW...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION...AS SLOWER IS OFTEN THE BETTER FORECAST WITH NEGATIVELY
TILTED SYSTEMS. AS A RESULT DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE NE 1/3 OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...WITH A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR TO
THE NE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THAT THE FORECAST COULD LATER
EVOLVE INTO A CLOUDIER ONE WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THIS TIME
FRAME.

FOR TEMPERATURES MONDAY-THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN NEAR
NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME AREAS MAINLY FROM NYC ON W HITTING 70. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
FOR NOW SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE
OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...IF THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW ENDS UP CLOSER
TO THE AREA...THEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND EXTENDING
DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING
TODAY.

MVFR STRATUS STRUGGLING TO SCOUR OUT...SO WILL KEEP IN THE TAF TIL
18Z OR SO.

EAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT LOCAL SEA BREEZES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TURN WINDS S/SE AT 8-12 KT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR
LESS TONIGHT.

LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS BKN020-025 THROUGH 18Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS BKN020-025 THROUGH 18Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS BKN020-025 THROUGH 18Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL CIGS BKN025 THROUGH 18Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR BKN CIGS 2000-2500 FT THROUGH
18Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS BKN015-020 THROUGH 18Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-MON NIGHT...VFR.
.TUE/TUE NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS...COLD FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 06Z AS LINGERING
EASTERLY SWELL KEEPS HIGHER SEAS WITHIN THE FORECAST COASTAL OCEAN
ZONES. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THESE HIGHER SEAS TO LAST LONGER
THROUGH THE WHOLE NIGHT BUT FORECAST FOR NOW DROPS CONDITIONS TO
BELOW SCA TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ONCE
THE SEAS ON THE OCEAN SUBSIDE TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THERE AS WELL.

AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH WINDS ON NON-OCEAN WATERS 10 KT OR LESS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS COULD
EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SHOULD ALSO BE
10 KT OR LESS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS - IF ANY.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS
NEAR TERM...JM/SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BC/MPS
MARINE...JM/MALOIT/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/SEARS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 181356
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
956 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH THEN SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO TUESDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST
STILL LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE AREA OUTSIDE OF NYC
METRO SO WILL MAINTAIN THE FROST ADVISORY AS IS UNTIL 9 AM.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE
NORTHEAST AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED IN KEEPING THE FRONT TO THE
NORTH...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA AS THE MAIN
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL.
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF STRATUS HAVING
PUSHED INTO NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NYC/LONG ISLAND...AND IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW. AS
THE WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH...SHOULD SEE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BUT A PASSING VORT MAX WILL KEEP THE INCREASED
SKY COVERAGE...INCREASING THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A WARMING TREND WITH WAA...THE
COMBINATION OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW...AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES STILL ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH SETTING UP BRIEFLY OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE TROUGH IS QUICKLY
REPLACED BY THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE...BUILDING SOUTH AND EAST FROM
CANADA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT AGAIN MAIN
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING AT THE SURFACE
ALONG WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT. RIDGING SETS
UP QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH FOR SATURDAY AND WITH
BUILDING SUBSIDENCE...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND SUNNY DAY ONCE
THE MORNING CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TONIGHT...AND THEN EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING INFLUENCE.

INCREASED WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES ON SATURDAY COULD LEAD TO AN
ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE...WITH
SUSTAINED 10-15 MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CORRESPONDING WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY AND WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER IN
THIS TIME FRAME. FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES NEAR NORMAL IN NYC PROPER...AND A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE. FOR HIGHS SUNDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN
FROM 925-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT READINGS TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY...THEN
EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY...BUT COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEVELOPING FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH.

TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHARPEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF IT LIKELY
CONFINED TO THE NW 1/3-1/2 OF THE CWA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO E
PA/UPSTATE NY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BEGINS TO TAKE ON A BIT OF A
NEGATIVE TILT...WOULD EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...NOTING SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
TIMING...AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
CHANCE AT THIS TIME.

SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION EXITS TO THE E
ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE 00Z CMC
AND GFS WHEN COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW SOON
WILL A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO NEGATIVELY TILT
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THIS CUTOFF LIFT TO THE
NE. FOR NOW...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION...AS SLOWER IS OFTEN THE BETTER FORECAST WITH NEGATIVELY
TILTED SYSTEMS. AS A RESULT DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE NE 1/3 OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...WITH A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR TO
THE NE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THAT THE FORECAST COULD LATER
EVOLVE INTO A CLOUDIER ONE WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THIS TIME
FRAME.

FOR TEMPERATURES MONDAY-THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN NEAR
NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME AREAS MAINLY FROM NYC ON W HITTING 70. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
FOR NOW SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE
OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...IF THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW ENDS UP CLOSER
TO THE AREA...THEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND EXTENDING
DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING
TODAY.

MVFR STRATUS STRUGGLING TO SCOUR OUT...SO WILL KEEP IN THE TAF TIL
18Z OR SO.

EAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT LOCAL SEA BREEZES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TURN WINDS S/SE AT 8-12 KT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR
LESS TONIGHT.

LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS BKN020-025 THROUGH 18Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS BKN020-025 THROUGH 18Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS BKN020-025 THROUGH 18Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL CIGS BKN025 THROUGH 18Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR BKN CIGS 2000-2500 FT THROUGH
18Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS BKN015-020 THROUGH 18Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-MON NIGHT...VFR.
.TUE/TUE NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS...COLD FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ON TRACK AS FORECASTED THIS MORNING. SCA
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 06Z WITH GUIDANCE
KEEPING THE SEAS ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ONCE THE SEAS ON THE
OCEAN SUBSIDE TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE AS WELL.

AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH WINDS ON NON-OCEAN WATERS 10 KT OR LESS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS COULD
EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SHOULD ALSO BE
10 KT OR LESS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS - IF ANY.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BC/MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/SEARS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/SEARS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 181110
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
710 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH THEN SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO TUESDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST
STILL LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE AREA OUTSIDE OF NYC
METRO SO WILL MAINTAIN THE FROST ADVISORY AS IS UNTIL 9 AM.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE
NORTHEAST AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED IN KEEPING THE FRONT TO THE
NORTH...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA AS THE MAIN
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL.
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF STRATUS HAVING
PUSHED INTO NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NYC/LONG ISLAND...AND IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW. AS
THE WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH...SHOULD SEE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BUT A PASSING VORT MAX WILL KEEP THE INCREASED
SKY COVERAGE...INCREASING THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A WARMING TREND WITH WAA...THE
COMBINATION OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW...AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES STILL ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH SETTING UP BRIEFLY OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE TROUGH IS QUICKLY
REPLACED BY THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE...BUILDING SOUTH AND EAST FROM
CANADA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT AGAIN MAIN
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING AT THE SURFACE
ALONG WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT. RIDGING SETS
UP QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH FOR SATURDAY AND WITH
BUILDING SUBSIDENCE...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND SUNNY DAY ONCE
THE MORNING CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TONIGHT...AND THEN EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING INFLUENCE.

INCREASED WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES ON SATURDAY COULD LEAD TO AN
ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE...WITH
SUSTAINED 10-15 MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CORRESPONDING WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY AND WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER IN
THIS TIME FRAME. FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES NEAR NORMAL IN NYC PROPER...AND A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE. FOR HIGHS SUNDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN
FROM 925-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT READINGS TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY...THEN
EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY...BUT COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEVELOPING FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH.

TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHARPEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF IT LIKELY
CONFINED TO THE NW 1/3-1/2 OF THE CWA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO E
PA/UPSTATE NY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BEGINS TO TAKE ON A BIT OF A
NEGATIVE TILT...WOULD EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...NOTING SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
TIMING...AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
CHANCE AT THIS TIME.

SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION EXITS TO THE E
ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE 00Z CMC
AND GFS WHEN COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW SOON
WILL A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO NEGATIVELY TILT
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THIS CUTOFF LIFT TO THE
NE. FOR NOW...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION...AS SLOWER IS OFTEN THE BETTER FORECAST WITH NEGATIVELY
TILTED SYSTEMS. AS A RESULT DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE NE 1/3 OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...WITH A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR TO
THE NE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THAT THE FORECAST COULD LATER
EVOLVE INTO A CLOUDIER ONE WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THIS TIME
FRAME.

FOR TEMPERATURES MONDAY-THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN NEAR
NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME AREAS MAINLY FROM NYC ON W HITTING 70. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
FOR NOW SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE
OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...IF THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW ENDS UP CLOSER
TO THE AREA...THEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND EXTENDING
DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING
TODAY.

PATCHY MVFR STRATUS SHOULD SCOUR OUT BY 14-15Z

EAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT LOCAL SEA BREEZES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TURN WINDS S/SE AT 8-12 KT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR
LESS TONIGHT.

LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS BKN020-025 THROUGH 15Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS BKN020-025 THROUGH 15Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS BKN020-025 THROUGH 15Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL CIGS BKN025 THROUGH 15Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR BKN CIGS 2000-2500 FT THROUGH
15Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS BKN015-020 THROUGH 15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-MON NIGHT...VFR.
.TUE/TUE NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS...COLD FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ON TRACK AS FORECASTED THIS MORNING. SCA
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 06Z WITH GUIDANCE
KEEPING THE SEAS ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ONCE THE SEAS ON THE
OCEAN SUBSIDE TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE AS WELL.

AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH WINDS ON NON-OCEAN WATERS 10 KT OR LESS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS COULD
EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SHOULD ALSO BE
10 KT OR LESS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS - IF ANY.


NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>071-
     078>081-177-179.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/SEARS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/SEARS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 180753
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
353 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH THEN SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO TUESDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE
NORTHEAST AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED IN KEEPING THE FRONT TO THE
NORTH...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA AS THE MAIN
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL.
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF STRATUS HAVING
PUSHED INTO NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NYC/LONG ISLAND...AND IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW. AS
THE WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH...SHOULD SEE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BUT A PASSING VORT MAX WILL KEEP THE INCREASED
SKY COVERAGE...INCREASING THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A WARMING TREND WITH WAA...THE
COMBINATION OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW...AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES STILL ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH SETTING UP BRIEFLY OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE TROUGH IS QUICKLY
REPLACED BY THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE...BUILDING SOUTH AND EAST FROM
CANADA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT AGAIN MAIN
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING AT THE SURFACE
ALONG WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT. RIDGING SETS
UP QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH FOR SATURDAY AND WITH
BUILDING SUBSIDENCE...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND SUNNY DAY ONCE
THE MORNING CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TONIGHT...AND THEN EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING INFLUENCE.

INCREASED WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES ON SATURDAY COULD LEAD TO AN
ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE...WITH
SUSTAINED 10-15 MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CORRESPONDING WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY AND WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER IN
THIS TIME FRAME. FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES NEAR NORMAL IN NYC PROPER...AND A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE. FOR HIGHS SUNDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN
FROM 925-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT READINGS TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY...THEN
EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY...BUT COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEVELOPING FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH.

TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHARPEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF IT LIKELY
CONFINED TO THE NW 1/3-1/2 OF THE CWA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO E
PA/UPSTATE NY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BEGINS TO TAKE ON A BIT OF A
NEGATIVE TILT...WOULD EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...NOTING SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
TIMING...AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
CHANCE AT THIS TIME.

SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION EXITS TO THE E
ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE 00Z CMC
AND GFS WHEN COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW SOON
WILL A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO NEGATIVELY TILT
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THIS CUTOFF LIFT TO THE
NE. FOR NOW...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION...AS SLOWER IS OFTEN THE BETTER FORECAST WITH NEGATIVELY
TILTED SYSTEMS. AS A RESULT DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE NE 1/3 OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...WITH A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR TO
THE NE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THAT THE FORECAST COULD LATER
EVOLVE INTO A CLOUDIER ONE WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THIS TIME
FRAME.

FOR TEMPERATURES MONDAY-THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN NEAR
NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME AREAS MAINLY FROM NYC ON W HITTING 70. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
FOR NOW SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE
OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...IF THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW ENDS UP CLOSER
TO THE AREA...THEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND EXTENDING
DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING
TODAY.

EAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT LOCAL SEA BREEZES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TURN WINDS S/SE AT 10-15 KT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KT
OR LESS TONIGHT.

PATCHY MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z OR SO. VFR
OTHERWISE AND THEREAFTER.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS BKN020-025 THROUGH 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS BKN020-025 THROUGH 14Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS BKN020-025 THROUGH 14Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS BKN025 THROUGH 14Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR BKN CIGS AROUND 2500 FT THROUGH
14Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS BKN020-025 THROUGH 14Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-MON NIGHT...VFR.
.TUE/TUE NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS...COLD FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING ALL NIGHT...WITH GUSTS MAINLY BELOW 25
KTS EVERYWHERE EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS STILL ELEVATED ON THE
OCEAN...4-6 FT...SO WILL BE CONVERTING CURRENT SCA TO SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SEAS ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...SO WILL ALSO EXTEND THE SCA THROUGH 06Z SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. ELSEWHERE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. ONCE THE SEAS ON THE OCEAN SUBSIDE TONIGHT...SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE AS WELL.

AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH WINDS ON NON-OCEAN WATERS 10 KT OR LESS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS COULD
EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SHOULD ALSO BE
10 KT OR LESS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS - IF ANY.


NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>071-
     078>081-177-179.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/SEARS










000
FXUS61 KOKX 180543
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
143 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY THEN EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TRACK AND MADE EDITS TO TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS. TEMPS WERE DROPPING A BIT QUICKER THAN
FORECAST...LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA AND
THE QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS. LAV DATA ALSO INDICATING LOWS A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS STILL
ADVECTING IN BY 07-09Z.

STILL THINKING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...AT
LEAST WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS STARTED. WITH THE CLOUD
COVER HOLDING OFF A FEW MORE HOURS...EXPECT SOME FROST TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WITH CALM AND VARIABLE WINDS. SO WILL KEEP
THE FROST ADVISORIES THAT ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT KFOK GETS TO 32 DEGREES BUT FREEZING TEMPS WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE WARNING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 30S. OF COURSE TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE NUDGED DOWN A BIT
OF CLOUDS TAKE LONGER TO MOVE IN. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MAV/MET
BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY
AND GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE
IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NEARBY.

MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND USED. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...WHILE FRIDAY NIGHT FALLS INTO THE
30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS A SLOW
MOVING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ADVECTION
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE...THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD
UNDER FULL SUN AS HUMIDITIES DECREASE TO LESS THAN 30 PCT AND NW
WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...WITH LOW 60S NORTH AND WEST OF
NYC.

FORECAST MODELS SHOW A DIGGING AMPLIFYING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY CAUSING CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA WITH
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THIS APPEARS TO MAINLY BE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE
RAINFALL OF 1/4-1/2 INCH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND EXTENDING
DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING
TODAY.

EAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT LOCAL SEA BREEZES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TURN WINDS S/SE AT 10-15 KT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KT
OR LESS TONIGHT.

PATCHY MVFR STRATUS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
DAYBREAK OR SO. VFR OTHERWISE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-MON NIGHT...VFR.
.TUE/TUE NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS...COLD FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS WHERE
GUSTS ARE REACHING 25 KT AND SEAS ARE AROUND 6-7 FT. THIS SMALL
CRAFT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS MAY REMAIN FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATER.

SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE
ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF LULL TUESDAY NIGHT..NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR 1/4 - 1/2 INCH RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.


NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>071-
     078>081-177-179.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...BC/LN
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC










000
FXUS61 KOKX 180255
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1055 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY THEN EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TRACK AND MADE EDITS TO TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS. TEMPS WERE DROPPING A BIT QUICKER THAN
FORECAST...LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA AND
THE QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS. LAV DATA ALSO INDICATING LOWS A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS STILL
ADVECTING IN BY 07-09Z.

STILL THINKING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...AT
LEAST WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS STARTED. WITH THE CLOUD
COVER HOLDING OFF A FEW MORE HOURS...EXPECT SOME FROST TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WITH CALM AND VARIABLE WINDS. SO WILL KEEP
THE FROST ADVISORIES THAT ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT KFOK GETS TO 32 DEGREES BUT FREEZING TEMPS WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE WARNING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 30S. OF COURSE TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE NUDGED DOWN A BIT
OF CLOUDS TAKE LONGER TO MOVE IN. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MAV/MET
BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY
AND GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE
IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NEARBY.

MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND USED. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...WHILE FRIDAY NIGHT FALLS INTO THE
30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS A SLOW
MOVING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ADVECTION
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE...THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD
UNDER FULL SUN AS HUMIDITIES DECREASE TO LESS THAN 30 PCT AND NW
WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...WITH LOW 60S NORTH AND WEST OF
NYC.

FORECAST MODELS SHOW A DIGGING AMPLIFYING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY CAUSING CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA WITH
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THIS APPEARS TO MAINLY BE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE
RAINFALL OF 1/4-1/2 INCH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND EXTENDING
DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING
THROUGH FRI.

AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVE TO THE E...STARTING TO SEE A FEW PATCHES OF
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NJ ON THE FOG IR SAT. AN ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
PUSH THESE TO THE W...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF
SAT DATA FOR TRENDS BEFORE INCLUDING PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AT
KEWR/KTEB TONIGHT. THUS THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS REMAINS
A CHALLENGE. SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A PATCH OF
MVFR CIGS MOVES ACROSS LI AND NYC TERMINALS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z
WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF STRATUS MOVING ONSHORE BETWEEN 07Z
AND 09Z. THIS CONTINUED TO SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING...ALTHOUGH HAVE EXTENDED THE STRATUS INTO KLGA WITH TEMPO`S
CONTINUING FOR THE TIME BEING AT KEWR/KTEB. THE MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO SCT OUT MID-LATE FRI MORNING.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTAL
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-MON NIGHT...VFR.
.TUE/TUE NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS...COLD FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS WHERE
GUSTS ARE REACHING 25 KT AND SEAS ARE AROUND 6-7 FT. THIS SMALL
CRAFT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS MAY REMAIN FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATER.

SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE
ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF LULL TUESDAY NIGHT..NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR 1/4 - 1/2 INCH RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.


NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ069>071-078>081-
     177-179.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ004-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...BC/LN
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC








000
FXUS61 KOKX 180217
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1017 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY THEN EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TRACK AND MADE EDITS TO TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS. TEMPS WERE DROPPING A BIT QUICKER THAN
FORECAST...LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA AND
THE QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS. LAV DATA ALSO INDICATING LOWS A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS STILL
ADVECTING IN BY 07-09Z.

STILL THINKING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...AT
LEAST WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS STARTED. WITH THE CLOUD
COVER HOLDING OFF A FEW MORE HOURS...EXPECT SOME FROST TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WITH CALM AND VARIABLE WINDS. SO WILL KEEP
THE FROST ADVISORIES THAT ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT KFOK GETS TO 32 DEGREES BUT FREEZING TEMPS WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE WARNING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 30S. OF COURSE TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE NUDGED DOWN A BIT
OF CLOUDS TAKE LONGER TO MOVE IN. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MAV/MET
BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY
AND GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE
IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NEARBY.

MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND USED. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...WHILE FRIDAY NIGHT FALLS INTO THE
30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS A SLOW
MOVING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ADVECTION
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE...THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD
UNDER FULL SUN AS HUMIDITIES DECREASE TO LESS THAN 30 PCT AND NW
WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...WITH LOW 60S NORTH AND WEST OF
NYC.

FORECAST MODELS SHOW A DIGGING AMPLIFYING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY CAUSING CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA WITH
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THIS APPEARS TO MAINLY BE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE
RAINFALL OF 1/4-1/2 INCH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND EXTENDING
DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING
THROUGH FRI.

VFR TO START...BUT POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS BECOMES THE CHALLENGE
TONIGHT. BEFORE THE LOSS OF VIS SAT...STRATO CU OVER THE ATLANTIC
WAS ERODING. SOME 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AT 00Z COMPARED TO SAT IMAGERY AND SOUNDINGS.
HOWEVER...SINCE AN ELY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. QUESTION IS TIMING AND EXTENT. SOME OF THE
HIGH RES MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A PATCH OF MVFR CIGS MOVES ACROSS LI AND
NYC TERMINALS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF
STRATUS MOVING ONSHORE BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z. THIS CONTINUED TO
SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING...ALTHOUGH HAVE EXTENDED
THE STRATUS INTO KLGA AND INCLUDED TEMPO`S AT KEWR/KTEB WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE HERE. THE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SCT OUT MID- LATE
FRI MORNING.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTAL
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTN.

  NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE AFT 18Z. TIMING OF
MVFR CIGS MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND
13Z FRI.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR CIGS MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
WIND DIRECTION MAY BE 30-40 DEGREES RIGHT OF FORECAST BY LATE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED OVERNIGHT WITH AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR INCLUSION IN
PREVAILING GROUP. COULD IMPACT MORNING PUSH.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED OVERNIGHT WITH AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR INCLUSION IN
PREVAILING GROUP. COULD IMPACT MORNING PUSH.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR CIGS MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR CIGS MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. IFR
CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z FRI.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-MON NIGHT...VFR.
.TUE/TUE NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS...COLD FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS WHERE
GUSTS ARE REACHING 25 KT AND SEAS ARE AROUND 6-7 FT. THIS SMALL
CRAFT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS MAY REMAIN FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATER.

SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE
ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF LULL TUESDAY NIGHT..NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR 1/4 - 1/2 INCH RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.


NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ069>071-078>081-
     177-179.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ004-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...BC/LN
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC









000
FXUS61 KOKX 180043
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
843 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY THEN EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING AND MADE JUST MADE MINOR EDITS TO
THE TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. STILL MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRATUS LAYER TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING AND OVERSPREAD COASTAL
AREAS. HAVE MOVED THE TIMING OF THIS BACK A COUPLE HOURS AS
CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH DRIER THAN SOME OF THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THINKING IF THE CLOUD COVER OCCURS...IT WILL TAKE
LONGER TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR. STILL UNSURE EXACTLY HOW FAR
INLAND THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL GET. BUT ALSO STILL EXPECTING HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SO SKY COVER FORECAST
REFLECTS THAT AS WELL.

STILL THINKING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING...AT LEAST WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS STARTED. SO
WILL KEEP THE FROST ADVISORIES THAT ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT FROST MAY NOT EVEN DEVELOP WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...HOWEVER IF CLOUDS DO NOT MOVE IN...OR WE GET BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 30S. OF COURSE TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE NUDGED DOWN A BIT
OF CLOUDS TAKE LONGER TO MOVE IN. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MAV/MET
BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY
AND GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE
IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NEARBY.

MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND USED. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...WHILE FRIDAY NIGHT FALLS INTO THE
30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS A SLOW
MOVING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ADVECTION
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE...THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD
UNDER FULL SUN AS HUMIDITIES DECREASE TO LESS THAN 30 PCT AND NW
WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...WITH LOW 60S NORTH AND WEST OF
NYC.

FORECAST MODELS SHOW A DIGGING AMPLIFYING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY CAUSING CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA WITH
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THIS APPEARS TO MAINLY BE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE
RAINFALL OF 1/4-1/2 INCH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND EXTENDING
DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING
THROUGH FRI.

VFR TO START...BUT POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS BECOMES THE CHALLENGE
TONIGHT. BEFORE THE LOSS OF VIS SAT...STRATO CU OVER THE ATLANTIC
WAS ERODING. SOME 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AT 00Z COMPARED TO SAT IMAGERY AND SOUNDINGS.
HOWEVER...SINCE AN ELY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. QUESTION IS TIMING AND EXTENT. SOME OF THE
HIGH RES MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A PATCH OF MVFR CIGS MOVES ACROSS LI AND
NYC TERMINALS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF
STRATUS MOVING ONSHORE BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z. THIS CONTINUED TO
SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING...ALTHOUGH HAVE EXTENDED
THE STRATUS INTO KLGA AND INCLUDED TEMPO`S AT KEWR/KTEB WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE HERE. THE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SCT OUT MID- LATE
FRI MORNING.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTAL
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTN.

  NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE AFT 18Z. TIMING OF
MVFR CIGS MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND
13Z FRI.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR CIGS MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
WIND DIRECTION MAY BE 30-40 DEGREES RIGHT OF FORECAST BY LATE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED OVERNIGHT WITH AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR INCLUSION IN
PREVAILING GROUP. COULD IMPACT MORNING PUSH.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED OVERNIGHT WITH AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR INCLUSION IN
PREVAILING GROUP. COULD IMPACT MORNING PUSH.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR CIGS MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR CIGS MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. IFR
CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z FRI.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-MON NIGHT...VFR.
.TUE/TUE NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS...COLD FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS WHERE
GUSTS ARE REACHING 25 KT AND SEAS ARE AROUND 6-7 FT. THIS SMALL
CRAFT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS MAY REMAIN FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATER.

SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE
ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF LULL TUESDAY NIGHT..NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR 1/4 - 1/2 INCH RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.


NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ069>071-
     078>081-177-179.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ004-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...BC/LN
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC








000
FXUS61 KOKX 172326
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
726 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY THEN EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING AND MADE JUST MADE MINOR EDITS TO
THE TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. STILL MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRATUS LAYER TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING AND OVERSPREAD COASTAL
AREAS. HAVE MOVED THE TIMING OF THIS BACK A COUPLE HOURS AS
CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH DRIER THAN SOME OF THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THINKING IF THE CLOUD COVER OCCURS...IT WILL TAKE
LONGER TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR. STILL UNSURE EXACTLY HOW FAR
INLAND THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL GET. BUT ALSO STILL EXPECTING HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SO SKY COVER FORECAST
REFLECTS THAT AS WELL.

STILL THINKING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING...AT LEAST WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS STARTED. SO
WILL KEEP THE FROST ADVISORIES THAT ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT FROST MAY NOT EVEN DEVELOP WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...HOWEVER IF CLOUDS DO NOT MOVE IN...OR WE GET BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 30S. OF COURSE TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE NUDGED DOWN A BIT
OF CLOUDS TAKE LONGER TO MOVE IN. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MAV/MET
BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY
AND GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE
IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NEARBY.

MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND USED. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...WHILE FRIDAY NIGHT FALLS INTO THE
30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS A SLOW
MOVING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ADVECTION
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE...THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD
UNDER FULL SUN AS HUMIDITIES DECREASE TO LESS THAN 30 PCT AND NW
WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...WITH LOW 60S NORTH AND WEST OF
NYC.

FORECAST MODELS SHOW A DIGGING AMPLIFYING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY CAUSING CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA WITH
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THIS APPEARS TO MAINLY BE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE
RAINFALL OF 1/4-1/2 INCH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT.

A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED AND MOVED INLAND OVER NYC TERMINALS. AFTER
02Z WINDS SHOULD BECOME E AGAIN AND THEN DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT. SEA
BREEZE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

MAINLY VFR. CLOUD REMNANTS FROM SEA BREEZE PRODUCING BKN CIGS
AROUND THE CITY TERMINALS NEAR 4THSD FT. ALSO WATCHING AREAS OF
STRATUS OFF LONG ISLAND AND EAST OF NANTUCKET FOR ANY SIGNS OF
MOVING INLAND. TRENDS DURING THE AFTERNOON PUSHED THE STRATUS
FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL STILL INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL TAFS
BECAUSE OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFT 02Z-05Z FRIDAY. ANY
CIGS SHOULD SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON GUSTS..POTENTIAL UP TO 20KT
TIL 02Z. DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z. WATCHING STRATUS
OFFSHORE AND MAY AMEND FOR MVFR CIGS DEPENDING ON TRENDS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WINDS 15-20 KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z. WATCHING STRATUS
OFFSHORE AND MAY AMEND FOR MVFR CIGS DEPENDING ON TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTN...BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS WHERE
GUSTS ARE REACHING 25 KT AND SEAS ARE AROUND 6-7 FT. THIS SMALL
CRAFT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS MAY REMAIN FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATER.

SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE
ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF LULL TUESDAY NIGHT..NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR 1/4 - 1/2 INCH RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.


NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ069>071-
     078>081-177-179.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ004-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...BC/LN
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC










000
FXUS61 KOKX 172038
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
438 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY THEN EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MAIN CONCERN/QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY
OVER THE OCEAN OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THINKING IS THAT CLOUD COVER
WILL OVERSPREAD AT LEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA. UNSURE JUST
HOW MUCH FURTHER INLAND THE CLOUDS WILL TRAVEL.

AS A RESULT...THINKING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING...AT LEAST WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS STARTED. SO
WILL CONVERT THE FREEZE WATCHES TO FROST ADVISORIES...AND KEEP THE
FROST ADVISORIES THAT ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT UP.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT FROST MAY NOT EVEN DEVELOP WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...HOWEVER IF CLOUDS DO NOT MOVE IN...OR WE GET BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 30S. OF COURSE TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE NUDGED DOWN A BIT
OF CLOUDS TAKE LONGER TO MOVE IN. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MAV/MET
BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY
AND GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE
IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NEARBY.

MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND USED. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...WHILE FRIDAY NIGHT FALLS INTO THE
30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS A SLOW
MOVING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ADVECTION
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE...THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD
UNDER FULL SUN AS HUMIDITIES DECREASE TO LESS THAN 30 PCT AND NW
WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...WITH LOW 60S NORTH AND WEST OF
NYC.

FORECAST MODELS SHOW A DIGGING AMPLIFYING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY CAUSING CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA WITH
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THIS APPEARS TO MAINLY BE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE
RAINFALL OF 1/4-1/2 INCH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT.

A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED AND MOVED INLAND OVER NYC TERMINALS. AFTER
02Z WINDS SHOULD BECOME E AGAIN AND THEN DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT. SEA
BREEZE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

MAINLY VFR. CLOUD REMNANTS FROM SEA BREEZE PRODUCING BKN CIGS
AROUND THE CITY TERMINALS NEAR 4THSD FT. ALSO WATCHING AREAS OF
STRATUS OFF LONG ISLAND AND EAST OF NANTUCKET FOR ANY SIGNS OF
MOVING INLAND. TRENDS DURING THE AFTERNOON PUSHED THE STRATUS
FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL STILL INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL TAFS
BECAUSE OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFT 02Z-05Z FRIDAY. ANY
CIGS SHOULD SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON GUSTS..POTENTIAL UP TO 20KT
TIL 02Z. DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z. WATCHING STRATUS
OFFSHORE AND MAY AMEND FOR MVFR CIGS DEPENDING ON TRENDS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WINDS 15-20 KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z. WATCHING STRATUS
OFFSHORE AND MAY AMEND FOR MVFR CIGS DEPENDING ON TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTN...BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS WHERE
GUSTS ARE REACHING 25 KT AND SEAS ARE AROUND 6-7 FT. THIS SMALL
CRAFT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS MAY REMAIN FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATER.

SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE
ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF LULL TUESDAY NIGHT..NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR 1/4 - 1/2 INCH RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.


NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ069>071-
     078>081-177-179.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ004-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC








000
FXUS61 KOKX 171934
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
334 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY THEN EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MAIN CONCERN/QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY
OVER THE OCEAN OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THINKING IS THAT CLOUD COVER
WILL OVERSPREAD AT LEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA. UNSURE JUST
HOW MUCH FURTHER INLAND THE CLOUDS WILL TRAVEL.

AS A RESULT...THINKING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING...AT LEAST WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS STARTED. SO
WILL CONVERT THE FREEZE WATCHES TO FROST ADVISORIES...AND KEEP THE
FROST ADVISORIES THAT ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT UP.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT FROST MAY NOT EVEN DEVELOP WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...HOWEVER IF CLOUDS DO NOT MOVE IN...OR WE GET BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 30S. OF COURSE TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE NUDGED DOWN A BIT
OF CLOUDS TAKE LONGER TO MOVE IN. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MAV/MET
BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY
AND GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE
IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NEARBY.

MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND USED. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...WHILE FRIDAY NIGHT FALLS INTO THE
30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS A SLOW
MOVING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ADVECTION
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE...THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD
UNDER FULL SUN AS HUMIDITIES DECREASE TO LESS THAN 30 PCT AND NW
WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...WITH LOW 60S NORTH AND WEST OF
NYC.

FORECAST MODELS SHOW A DIGGING AMPLIFYING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY CAUSING CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA WITH
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THIS APPEARS TO MAINLY BE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE
RAINFALL OF 1/4-1/2 INCH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES DURING THE DAY TODAY.

A SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND MOVED INLAND OVER NYC TERMINALS.
AFTER 02Z WINDS SHOULD BECOME E AGAIN AND THEN DIMINISH TO 8-12
KT AFT 02Z FRIDAY.

MAINLY VFR. CLOUD REMNANTS FROM SEA BREEZE PRODUCING OVC CONDITIONS
ACROSS CITY TERMINALS AOB 4THSD FT. ALSO WATCHING AREAS OF STRATUS
OFF LONG ISLAND AND EAST OF NANTUCKET FOR ANY SIGNS OF MOVING
INLAND. WILL INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS BECAUSE OF INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFT 02Z-05Z FRIDAY BUT MAY BE EARLIER DEPENDING
ON TRENDS. CIGS SHOULD SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON GUSTS..POTENTIAL UP TO
20KT. DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z. WATCHING STRATUS
OFFSHORE AND MAY AMEND FOR MVFR CIGS DEPENDING ON TRENDS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WINDS 15-20 KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z. WATCHING STRATUS
OFFSHORE AND MAY AMEND FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
.SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS WHERE
GUSTS ARE REACHING 25 KT AND SEAS ARE AROUND 6-7 FT. THIS SMALL
CRAFT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS MAY REMAIN FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATER.

SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE
ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF LULL TUESDAY NIGHT..NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR 1/4 - 1/2 INCH RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.


NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ069>071-
     078>081-177-179.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ004-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC








000
FXUS61 KOKX 171811
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
211 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PUSHES TO THE EAST DURING THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THEN LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE WITH MAIN CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER FOR THE DAY.
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NYC...CENTRAL NASSAU...WESTERN
SUFFOLK AND PORTIONS OF NE NJ. THESE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
SEABREEZE...SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST SKIES THERE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THEN A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY. GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES - WITH VALUES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FORECAST.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-900 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT READINGS TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z/17 MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO TREND TO THE DRIER SIDE NOW WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE AND THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WEAKENING/DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SAT...BUT LOOKS TO KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF
FORCING TO THE NORTH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH ONLY LIGHT MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN
RESPONSE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FRIDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE TAPERED
POPS BACK FRI NIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINING GENERALLY
OFFSHORE...AND JUST TOUCHING THE EASTERN END OF LONG
ISLAND...WHILE REMOVING POPS THEN ON SAT. HIGH PRESSURE REFORMS
AND TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA THEN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. ZONAL FLOW RETURNS BRIEFLY
MONDAY...KEEPING THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE EAST TUES-WED. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS MON
NIGHT...WITH ONLY INCLUDING SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING A VORTICITY MAXIMUM THROUGH CENTRAL
NY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TUES-TUES NIGHT WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH
ALOFT AND THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. COULD SEE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION INTO WED MORNING AS THE FRONT MERGES WITH THE
PASSING LOW OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THE WAKE WHILE
BROAD RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF WED AND THURS.

WILL SEE INCREASING TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
STRONG SURGE OF WAA WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
DOWNSLOPING SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND NORMAL
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES DURING THE DAY TODAY.

A SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND MOVED INLAND OVER NYC TERMINALS.
AFTER 02Z WINDS SHOULD BECOME E AGAIN AND THEN DIMINISH TO 8-12
KT AFT 02Z FRIDAY.

MAINLY VFR. CLOUD REMNANTS FROM SEA BREEZE PRODUCING OVC CONDITIONS
ACROSS CITY TERMINALS AOB 4THSD FT. ALSO WATCHING AREAS OF STRATUS
OFF LONG ISLAND AND EAST OF NANTUCKET FOR ANY SIGNS OF MOVING
INLAND. WILL INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS BECAUSE OF INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFT 02Z-05Z FRIDAY BUT MAY BE EARLIER DEPENDING
ON TRENDS. CIGS SHOULD SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON GUSTS..POTENTIAL UP TO
20KT. DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z. WATCHING STRATUS
OFFSHORE AND MAY AMEND FOR MVFR CIGS DEPENDING ON TRENDS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WINDS 15-20 KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z. WATCHING STRATUS
OFFSHORE AND MAY AMEND FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
.SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS AS
WIND GUSTS STRUGGLE TO REACH 25 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
UP FOR THE OCEAN WHERE GUSTS ARE REACHING 25 KT AND SEAS ARE
AROUND 6-7 FT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS
REMAINS UP THROUGH FRIDAY.

GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING FEATURE AND ONLY
MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. SEAS INITIALLY
AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN FRI NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
LESS THAN 5 FT BY SAT MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD BACK TO
AROUND 5 FT SUNDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

WINDS AND SEAS BOTH INCREASE WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING
IN POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&


.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ071-078>081-
     177-179.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ069-070.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ104-106-108.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...MALOIT/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/SEARS
CLIMATE...










000
FXUS61 KOKX 171429
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1029 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PUSHES TO THE EAST DURING THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THEN LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING EAST AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WHICH
MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONTS OF THE AREA. NOT QUITE READY TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER TOO MUCH.

OTHERWISE...WEAK...BUT DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA
TODAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMITING MIXING TO AROUND
900-875 HPA. SO HAVE USED MIXING DOWN FROM THERE...BLENDED WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FOR TODAY.
EXPECT READINGS TO BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THEN A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY. GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES - WITH VALUES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FORECAST.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-900 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT READINGS TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z/17 MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO TREND TO THE DRIER SIDE NOW WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE AND THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WEAKENING/DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SAT...BUT LOOKS TO KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF
FORCING TO THE NORTH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH ONLY LIGHT MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN
RESPONSE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FRIDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE TAPERED
POPS BACK FRI NIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINING GENERALLY
OFFSHORE...AND JUST TOUCHING THE EASTERN END OF LONG
ISLAND...WHILE REMOVING POPS THEN ON SAT. HIGH PRESSURE REFORMS
AND TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA THEN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. ZONAL FLOW RETURNS BRIEFLY
MONDAY...KEEPING THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE EAST TUES-WED. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS MON
NIGHT...WITH ONLY INCLUDING SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING A VORTICITY MAXIMUM THROUGH CENTRAL
NY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TUES-TUES NIGHT WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH
ALOFT AND THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. COULD SEE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION INTO WED MORNING AS THE FRONT MERGES WITH THE
PASSING LOW OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THE WAKE WHILE
BROAD RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF WED AND THURS.

WILL SEE INCREASING TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
STRONG SURGE OF WAA WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
DOWNSLOPING SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND NORMAL
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES DURING THE DAY TODAY.

E WINDS 10-15 KT WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT AFT 03Z FRIDAY.

MAINLY VFR. WATCHING AREAS OF STRATUS OFF LONG ISLAND AND EAST OF NANTUCKET
FOR ANY SIGNS OF MOVING INLAND. WILL INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS IN THE
TAFS BECAUSE OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFT 08Z FRIDAY BUT
MAY BE EARLIER DEPENDING ON TRENDS. CIGS SHOULD SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY
MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WINDS 15-20 KT...AND WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 090-110 MAG AFT
19Z. WATCHING STRATUS OFFSHORE AND MAY AMEND FOR MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WINDS 15-20 KT...AND WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 19Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 19Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 120-140 MAG THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 120-140 MAG THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 19Z. WINDS INCREASE TO 20
KT THIS AFTERNOON. WATCHING STRATUS OFFSHORE AND MAY AMEND FOR MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
.SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
EXPECTED TODAY. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS ON FRIDAY
DUE TO PERSISTENT SWELLS...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.

GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING FEATURE AND ONLY
MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. SEAS INITIALLY
AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN FRI NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
LESS THAN 5 FT BY SAT MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD BACK TO
AROUND 5 FT SUNDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

WINDS AND SEAS BOTH INCREASE WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING
IN POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ071-078>081-
     177-179.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ069-070.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ104-106-108.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS
NEAR TERM...BC/MALOIT/SEARS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...MALOIT/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/SEARS
CLIMATE...










000
FXUS61 KOKX 171155
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
755 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PUSHES TO THE EAST DURING THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THEN LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA AS OF 11Z SO HAVE ALLOWED THE FREEZE WARNING TO BE
CANCELLED. ISOLATED POCKETS OF TEMPS BELOW FREEZING WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR CT AND HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
14Z...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF AN AREA TO KEEP THE WARNING GOING. HAVE
ALSO ISSUED FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS OF COASTAL
CT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...LONG ISLAND AND HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE COMING NIGHT.

WEAK...BUT DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...KEEPING CLOUD COVER...OTHER THAN SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME...AT A MINIMUM.

ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO LIMITING MIXING TO AROUND 900-875
HPA. SO HAVE USED MIXING DOWN FROM THERE...BLENDED WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FOR TODAY. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THEN A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY. GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES - WITH VALUES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FORECAST.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-900 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT READINGS TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z/17 MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO TREND TO THE DRIER SIDE NOW WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE AND THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WEAKENING/DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SAT...BUT LOOKS TO KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF
FORCING TO THE NORTH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH ONLY LIGHT MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN
RESPONSE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FRIDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE TAPERED
POPS BACK FRI NIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINING GENERALLY
OFFSHORE...AND JUST TOUCHING THE EASTERN END OF LONG
ISLAND...WHILE REMOVING POPS THEN ON SAT. HIGH PRESSURE REFORMS
AND TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA THEN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. ZONAL FLOW RETURNS BRIEFLY
MONDAY...KEEPING THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE EAST TUES-WED. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS MON
NIGHT...WITH ONLY INCLUDING SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING A VORTICITY MAXIMUM THROUGH CENTRAL
NY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TUES-TUES NIGHT WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH
ALOFT AND THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. COULD SEE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION INTO WED MORNING AS THE FRONT MERGES WITH THE
PASSING LOW OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THE WAKE WHILE
BROAD RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF WED AND THURS.

WILL SEE INCREASING TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
STRONG SURGE OF WAA WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
DOWNSLOPING SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND NORMAL
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES DURING THE DAY TODAY.

E WINDS 10-15 KT WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT AFT 03Z FRIDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WILL INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS
BECAUSE OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFT 08Z FRIDAY. CIGS SHOULD
SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WINDS 15-20 KT...AND WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WINDS 15-20 KT...AND WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 19Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 19Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 120-140 MAG THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 120-140 MAG THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 19Z. WINDS INCREASE TO 20
KT THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
.SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
EXPECTED TODAY. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS ON FRIDAY
DUE TO PERSISTENT SWELLS...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.

GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING FEATURE AND ONLY
MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. SEAS INITIALLY
AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN FRI NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
LESS THAN 5 FT BY SAT MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD BACK TO
AROUND 5 FT SUNDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

WINDS AND SEAS BOTH INCREASE WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING
IN POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ071-078>081-
     177-179.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ069-070.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ104-106-108.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/SEARS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/SEARS
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 170747
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
347 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PUSHES TO THE EAST DURING THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THEN LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES UP A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
SO FAR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THEY ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
FREEZING IN THE WARNING AREA...THAT CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPERATURES
JUST TOUCHING 32...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW...IN THE FREEZE WARNING AREA
BEFORE BEGINNING TO RISE JUST AFTER SUNRISE. AS A RESULT WILL
LEAVE FREEZE WARNING UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING.

WEAK...BUT DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...KEEPING CLOUD COVER...OTHER THAN SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME...AT A MINIMUM.

ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO LIMITING MIXING TO AROUND 900-875
HPA. SO HAVE USED MIXING DOWN FROM THERE...BLENDED WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FOR TODAY. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THEN A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY. GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES - WITH VALUES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FORECAST.

NOT WANTING TO HAVE UP MULTIPLE FROST FREEZE HEADLINES...WILL
HOLD OFF IN HOISTING A FREEZE WATCH FOR ROCKLAND/N WESTCHESTER AND
W PORTIONS OF UNION/ESSEX/BERGEN COUNTIES...AND A FROST ADVISORY
FOR LONG ISLAND...COASTAL CT...S WESTCHESTER AND THE E PORTION OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES IN NE NJ FOR TONIGHT. WILL LET
DAY-SHIFT ISSUE WHEN THEY TAKE DOWN THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS
MORNING.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-900 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT READINGS TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z/17 MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO TREND TO THE DRIER SIDE NOW WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE AND THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WEAKENING/DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SAT...BUT LOOKS TO KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF
FORCING TO THE NORTH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH ONLY LIGHT MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN
RESPONSE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FRIDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE TAPERED
POPS BACK FRI NIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINING GENERALLY
OFFSHORE...AND JUST TOUCHING THE EASTERN END OF LONG
ISLAND...WHILE REMOVING POPS THEN ON SAT. HIGH PRESSURE REFORMS
AND TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA THEN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. ZONAL FLOW RETURNS BRIEFLY
MONDAY...KEEPING THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE EAST TUES-WED. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS MON
NIGHT...WITH ONLY INCLUDING SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING A VORTICITY MAXIMUM THROUGH CENTRAL
NY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TUES-TUES NIGHT WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH
ALOFT AND THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. COULD SEE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION INTO WED MORNING AS THE FRONT MERGES WITH THE
PASSING LOW OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THE WAKE WHILE
BROAD RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF WED AND THURS.

WILL SEE INCREASING TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
STRONG SURGE OF WAA WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
DOWNSLOPING SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND NORMAL
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES DURING THE DAY TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS AFT 00Z
FRI...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

N/NNE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 4-8 KT THROUGH AROUND 12Z. WINDS VEER TO
THE EAST AFT 12Z...AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
WINDS DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT AFT 03Z FRIDAY.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 060-080 MAG THIS MORNING...AND THEN TO
090-110 MAG AFT 19Z. WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 060-080 MAG THIS MORNING...AND THEN TO
090-110 MAG AFT 19Z. WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 060-080 MAG THIS MORNING...AND THEN TO
090-110 MAG AFT 19Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 080-100 MAG THIS MORNING...AND THEN TO
120-140 MAG THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 080-100 MAG THIS MORNING...AND THEN TO
120-140 MAG THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 060-080 MAG THIS MORNING...AND THEN TO
090-110 MAG AFT 19Z. WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH EXPECTATION OF GUSTS ON ALL WATERS TO AROUND 25 KT...HAVE
EXPANDED THE SCA TO COVER ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT
SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS ON FRIDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT
SWELLS...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES
THROUGH FRIDAY.

GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING FEATURE AND ONLY
MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. SEAS INITIALLY
AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN FRI NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
LESS THAN 5 FT BY SAT MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD BACK TO
AROUND 5 FT SUNDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

WINDS AND SEAS BOTH INCREASE WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING
IN POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.



&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 32
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 31
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 34
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 35
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 33
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>071-073-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/SEARS
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KOKX 170538
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
138 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LASTS INTO MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM FORECAST TRENDS. CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL DISSIPATE BY 01Z AND SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL CONTINUE DECREASING...BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE UPPER
WIND FLOW MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IDEAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING LEADING TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

COMPLICATING THIS FORECAST IS A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT COULD
POTENTIALLY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS FROM DECOUPLING.
THIS WOULD HAVE MORE IMPLICATIONS OVER COASTAL CT...LONG
ISLAND...AND ZONES ADJACENT TO THE CITY WHERE FREEZE WARNING
CRITERIA MIGHT NOT THEN BE MET.

NO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TIE OR BREAK RECORDS...BUT WILL AT
LEAST COME CLOSE. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY ON THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS.
MIXING WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND 925MB WHERE THE FCST
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -3C AT THIS HEIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT
THEY WERE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE GONE NEAR THE COLDER NAM
MOS GUIDANCE. HIGHS ONLY 45-50 FOR THE MOST PART.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A NE TO ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MODELS AGREE THAT
THIS ADVECTS IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE RESULTING CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED....SO NO FREEZE WATCH/WARNING
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

THE DEPTH OF THIS MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...ONLY UP THROUGH ABOUT 925
MB. NAM...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...GFS SHOWS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
LIFT MOVING THROUGH DURING FRIDAY. NOT SURE IF THIS WILL BE ENOUGH
TO WARRANT POPS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW SHALLOW
THIS MOISTURE IS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND A SUN
ANGLE THAT COULD ERODE CLOUDS/MOISTURE. HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHC POPS THAT WERE IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PCPN TYPE WOULD BE DRIZZLE DUE TO SHALLOW DEPTH
OF THE MOISTURE. SIDED WITH THE COLDER NAM MOS ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND EAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY LOOKS
LIMITED SO HAVE DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKENDS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY...CROSSING THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE.
ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS DURING THE DAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND
NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES DURING THE DAY TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS AFT 00Z
FRI...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

N/NNE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 4-8 KT THROUGH AROUND 12Z. WINDS VEER
TO THE EAST AFT 12Z...AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT. WINDS DIMINISH TO
8-12 KT AFT 03Z FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...PSBL MVFR CIGS.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR
.MONDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
A BUILDING SE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SEAS JUST ABOVE 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT BEING
MET...HOWEVER...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR BUILDING SEAS AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO
AN ONSHORE FLOW.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON THURSDAY. FOR THE
OTHER WATERS...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. A DECENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN ABOVE THE OCEAN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SCA
COULD BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AS WELL.

SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTHEAST OF THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 34
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 32
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 35
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 37
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 34
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 31

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>071-073-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/FIG
NEAR TERM...GC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JC/FIG
CLIMATE...










000
FXUS61 KOKX 170238
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1038 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LASTS INTO MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM FORECAST TRENDS. CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS
ON TRACK.

AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL DISSIPATE BY 01Z AND SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL CONTINUE DECREASING...BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE UPPER
WIND FLOW MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IDEAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING LEADING TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

COMPLICATING THIS FORECAST IS A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WOULD
HAVE MORE IMPLICATIONS OVER COASTAL CT...LONG ISLAND...AND ZONES
ADJACENT TO THE CITY WHERE FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA MIGHT NOT THEN
BE MET.

NO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TIE OR BREAK RECORDS...BUT WILL AT
LEAST COME CLOSE. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY ON THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS.
MIXING WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND 925MB WHERE THE FCST
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -3C AT THIS HEIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT
THEY WERE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE GONE NEAR THE COLDER NAM
MOS GUIDANCE. HIGHS ONLY 45-50 FOR THE MOST PART.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A NE TO ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MODELS AGREE THAT
THIS ADVECTS IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE RESULTING CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED....SO NO FREEZE WATCH/WARNING
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

THE DEPTH OF THIS MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...ONLY UP THROUGH ABOUT 925
MB. NAM...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...GFS SHOWS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
LIFT MOVING THROUGH DURING FRIDAY. NOT SURE IF THIS WILL BE ENOUGH
TO WARRANT POPS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW SHALLOW
THIS MOISTURE IS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND A SUN
ANGLE THAT COULD ERODE CLOUDS/MOISTURE. HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHC POPS THAT WERE IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PCPN TYPE WOULD BE DRIZZLE DUE TO SHALLOW DEPTH
OF THE MOISTURE. SIDED WITH THE COLDER NAM MOS ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND EAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY LOOKS
LIMITED SO HAVE DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKENDS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY...CROSSING THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE.
ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS DURING THE DAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND
NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFTS NE OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY.

VFR THRU 00Z FRI. IN THE EXTENDED TAFS...VERY LOW PROB OF OCNL MVFR
CIGS AFT 00Z.

N/NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIGHTEN AND VEER TO THE NE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE E THU MORNING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
10 TO 20 KT THRU THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...PSBL MVFR CIGS.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR
.MONDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
A BUILDING SE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SEAS JUST ABOVE 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT BEING
MET...HOWEVER...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR BUILDING SEAS AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO
AN ONSHORE FLOW.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON THURSDAY. FOR THE
OTHER WATERS...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. A DECENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN ABOVE THE OCEAN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SCA
COULD BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AS WELL.

SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTHEAST OF THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 34
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 32
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 35
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 37
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 34
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 31

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ069>071-
     073-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ004-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/FIG
NEAR TERM...GC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC/DS
MARINE...JC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JC/FIG
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 170153
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
953 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LASTS INTO MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM FORECAST TRENDS. CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS
ON TRACK.

AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL DISSIPATE BY 01Z AND SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL CONTINUE DECREASING...BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE UPPER
WIND FLOW MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IDEAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING LEADING TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

COMPLICATING THIS FORECAST IS A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WOULD
HAVE MORE IMPLICATIONS OVER COASTAL CT...LONG ISLAND...AND ZONES
ADJACENT TO THE CITY WHERE FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA MIGHT NOT THEN
BE MET.

NO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TIE OR BREAK RECORDS...BUT WILL AT
LEAST COME CLOSE. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY ON THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS.
MIXING WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND 925MB WHERE THE FCST
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -3C AT THIS HEIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT
THEY WERE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE GONE NEAR THE COLDER NAM
MOS GUIDANCE. HIGHS ONLY 45-50 FOR THE MOST PART.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A NE TO ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MODELS AGREE THAT
THIS ADVECTS IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE RESULTING CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED....SO NO FREEZE WATCH/WARNING
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

THE DEPTH OF THIS MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...ONLY UP THROUGH ABOUT 925
MB. NAM...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...GFS SHOWS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
LIFT MOVING THROUGH DURING FRIDAY. NOT SURE IF THIS WILL BE ENOUGH
TO WARRANT POPS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW SHALLOW
THIS MOISTURE IS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND A SUN
ANGLE THAT COULD ERODE CLOUDS/MOISTURE. HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHC POPS THAT WERE IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PCPN TYPE WOULD BE DRIZZLE DUE TO SHALLOW DEPTH
OF THE MOISTURE. SIDED WITH THE COLDER NAM MOS ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND EAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY LOOKS
LIMITED SO HAVE DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKENDS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY...CROSSING THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE.
ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS DURING THE DAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND
NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTS NE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY.

VFR THRU 00Z FRI. IN THE EXTENDED TAFS...VERY LOW PROB OF OCNL MVFR
CIGS AFT 00Z.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIGHTEN AND VEER TO THE NE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE E THU MORNING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
10 TO 20 KT THRU THE AFTN.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...PSBL MVFR CIGS.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR
.MONDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
A BUILDING SE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SEAS JUST ABOVE 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT BEING
MET...HOWEVER...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR BUILDING SEAS AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO
AN ONSHORE FLOW.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON THURSDAY. FOR THE
OTHER WATERS...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. A DECENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN ABOVE THE OCEAN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SCA
COULD BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AS WELL.

SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTHEAST OF THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 34
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 32
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 35
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 37
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 34
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 31

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ069>071-
     073-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ004-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/FIG
NEAR TERM...GC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JC/FIG
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 162337
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
737 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LASTS INTO MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL DISSIPATE BY 01Z AND SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL CONTINUE DECREASING...BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE UPPER
WIND FLOW MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IDEAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING LEADING TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

COMPLICATING THIS FORECAST IS A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WOULD
HAVE MORE IMPLICATIONS OVER COASTAL CT...LONG ISLAND...AND ZONES
ADJACENT TO THE CITY WHERE FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA MIGHT NOT THEN
BE MET.

NO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TIE OR BREAK RECORDS...BUT WILL AT
LEAST COME CLOSE. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY ON THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS.
MIXING WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND 925MB WHERE THE FCST
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -3C AT THIS HEIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT
THEY WERE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE GONE NEAR THE COLDER NAM
MOS GUIDANCE. HIGHS ONLY 45-50 FOR THE MOST PART.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A NE TO ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MODELS AGREE THAT
THIS ADVECTS IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE RESULTING CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED....SO NO FREEZE WATCH/WARNING
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

THE DEPTH OF THIS MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...ONLY UP THROUGH ABOUT 925
MB. NAM...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...GFS SHOWS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
LIFT MOVING THROUGH DURING FRIDAY. NOT SURE IF THIS WILL BE ENOUGH
TO WARRANT POPS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW SHALLOW
THIS MOISTURE IS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND A SUN
ANGLE THAT COULD ERODE CLOUDS/MOISTURE. HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHC POPS THAT WERE IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PCPN TYPE WOULD BE DRIZZLE DUE TO SHALLOW DEPTH
OF THE MOISTURE. SIDED WITH THE COLDER NAM MOS ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND EAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY LOOKS
LIMITED SO HAVE DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKENDS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY...CROSSING THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE.
ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS DURING THE DAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND
NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTS NE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY.

VFR THRU 00Z FRI. IN THE EXTENDED TAFS...VERY LOW PROB OF OCNL MVFR
CIGS AFT 00Z.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIGHTEN AND VEER TO THE NE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE E THU MORNING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
10 TO 20 KT THRU THE AFTN.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...PSBL MVFR CIGS.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR
.MONDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
A BUILDING SE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SEAS JUST ABOVE 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT BEING
MET...HOWEVER...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR BUILDING SEAS AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO
AN ONSHORE FLOW.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON THURSDAY. FOR THE
OTHER WATERS...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. A DECENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN ABOVE THE OCEAN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SCA
COULD BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AS WELL.

SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTHEAST OF THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 34
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 32
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 35
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 37
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 34
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 31

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ069>071-
     073-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ004-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/FIG
NEAR TERM...GC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JC/FIG
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 161953
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
353 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LASTS
INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A CLEAR
SKY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS
DETERMINING WHERE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITHIN
THE ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY STARTED. COMPLICATING
THE FORECAST IS A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BE JUST
TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS FROM GOING LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM AND
PREVENT DECOUPLING. THIS WOULD HAVE MORE IMPLICATIONS OVER COASTAL
CT...LONG ISLAND...AND ZONES ADJACENT TO THE CITY WHERE FREEZE
WARNING CRITERIA MIGHT NOT THEN BE MET.

THINKING IS THAT THE CITY...HUDSON AND NASSAU COUNTIES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED HERE.
EASTERN HALVES OF UNION AND ESSEX COUNTIES COULD POSSIBLY REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITHOUT A WARNING
HERE. THE REST OF THE ZONES IN THEIR GROWING SEASON WILL HAVE A
FREEZE WARNING FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NO LOW
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TIE OR BREAK RECORDS...BUT WILL AT LEAST COME
CLOSE. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY ON THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS.
MIXING WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND 925MB WHERE THE FCST
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -3C AT THIS HEIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT
THEY WERE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE GONE NEAR THE COLDER NAM
MOS GUIDANCE. HIGHS ONLY 45-50 FOR THE MOST PART.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A NE TO ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MODELS AGREE THAT
THIS ADVECTS IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE RESULTING CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED....SO NO FREEZE WATCH/WARNING
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

THE DEPTH OF THIS MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...ONLY UP THROUGH ABOUT 925
MB. NAM...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...GFS SHOWS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
LIFT MOVING THROUGH DURING FRIDAY. NOT SURE IF THIS WILL BE ENOUGH
TO WARRANT POPS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW SHALLOW
THIS MOISTURE IS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND A SUN
ANGLE THAT COULD ERODE CLOUDS/MOISTURE. HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHC POPS THAT WERE IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PCPN TYPE WOULD BE DRIZZLE DUE TO SHALLOW DEPTH
OF THE MOISTURE. SIDED WITH THE COLDER NAM MOS ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND EAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY LOOKS
LIMITED SO HAVE DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKENDS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY...CROSSING THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE.
ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS DURING THE DAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND
NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTS
NE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY.

VFR.

NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS WILL END AROUND
22Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS
DIRECTIONS VEER TO THE N.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AT 5-12 KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE E THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING 10 TO 15 KT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND GUST AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...PSBL MVFR CIGS.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR
.MONDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
A BUILDING SE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SEAS JUST ABOVE 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT BEING
MET...HOWEVER...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR BUILDING SEAS AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO
AN ONSHORE FLOW.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON THURSDAY. FOR THE
OTHER WATERS...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. A DECENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN ABOVE THE OCEAN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SCA
COULD BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AS WELL.

SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTHEAST OF THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 34
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 32
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 35
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 37
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 34
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 31

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ069>071-
     073-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ004-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/FIG
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JC/FIG
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 161747
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
147 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE AREAS RIDE A
STALLED FRONT TO THE EAST. THE HIGH FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS AND DEW PTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBS. LOWERED HIGH TEMP FCST SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.

RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WITH MIXING TO AROUND 3500
FT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN APPROACH OR FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THE SAME AREAS THAT HAD THE FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES BEING REALIZED ACROSS THE CITY AND ADJACENT ZONES.
NO RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN TONIGHT UNLESS TEMPERATURES
FALL LOWER THAN FORECAST AS SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL
INITIALLY BE LIGHT IN THE EVENING. THEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TO
THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IN
COOLER NORTHERN ATLANTIC AIR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TODAYS HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PUSHES NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD
RIDGING. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE THAT COULD BRING LIGHT PCPN INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING TO THE NORTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. 00Z GFS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND
THE RESULTING PCPN WITH THE SUGGESTION OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW. ALL OTHER MODELS KEEP A DISTINCT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO SO
WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NOW WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE PCPN OCCURS. AN APPROACHING
FRONT SAT COULD TRIGGER SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. THINGS THEN DRY OUT FOR SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS LINGERS THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THEN
BRINGS A WEAK FRONT IN FROM THE WEST WHILE ECMWF AND CMC BOTH
DEVELOP A DECENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL FLORIDA AND TRACK
TO THE NORTH ALONG A STALLED FRONT. FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MORE OF A
GFS SOLUTION IN THIS CASE...SO SIDED MORE TO A GFS/WPC
BLEND...BRINGING POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND KEEPING THEM IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA THURS NIGHT/FRI AS
THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH KEEPS A COOLER EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW DESPITE WAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT FOR THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. OVERALL...TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH WITH TIMING OF PCPN TO KEEP PCPN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. THURS NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
AREAS CURRENTLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFTS
NE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY.

VFR.

NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
GUSTS WILL END AROUND 21Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING AS DIRECTIONS VEER TO THE N.

OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AT 5-12 KT. WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE E THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING 10 TO 15 KT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 310-340 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON. END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 320-350 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON. END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: 310-340 MAG. END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/-
AN HOUR.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND GUST AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...PSBL MVFR CIGS.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR
.MONDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ON THE SOUND/LI BAYS/NY HARBOR HAS BEEN DROPPED NOW THAT
FREQUENT GUSTS ARE BELOW 25 KT. ON THE OCEAN...JUST OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A BUILDING SE SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OVER THE
WESTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHERE SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT BEING MET...HOWEVER...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR
BUILDING SEAS AND STRENGTHENING WINDS LATER ON IN THE NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON THURSDAY. FOR THE
OTHER WATERS...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.

BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THURS NIGHT...WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN DURING THE
PERIOD...FINALLY SUBSIDING BY LATE SAT. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 5 FT INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 33
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 31
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 34
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 36
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 35
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC/SEARS/MET
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET
CLIMATE...










000
FXUS61 KOKX 161444
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1044 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE AREAS RIDE A
STALLED FRONT TO THE EAST. THE HIGH FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS AND DEW PTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBS.

RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AS COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH...WITH MIXING
TO AROUND 3500 FT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN APPROACH OR FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THE SAME AREAS THAT HAD THE FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS THE CITY AND ADJACENT ZONES.
NO RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN TONIGHT UNLESS TEMPERATURES
FALL LOWER THAN FORECAST AS SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL
INITIALLY BE LIGHT IN THE EVENING. THEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TO
THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IN
COOLER NORTHERN ATLANTIC AIR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TODAYS HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PUSHES NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD
RIDGING. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE THAT COULD BRING LIGHT PCPN INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING TO THE NORTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. 00Z GFS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND
THE RESULTING PCPN WITH THE SUGGESTION OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW. ALL OTHER MODELS KEEP A DISTINCT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO SO
WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NOW WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE PCPN OCCURS. AN APPROACHING
FRONT SAT COULD TRIGGER SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. THINGS THEN DRY OUT FOR SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS LINGERS THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THEN
BRINGS A WEAK FRONT IN FROM THE WEST WHILE ECMWF AND CMC BOTH
DEVELOP A DECENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL FLORIDA AND TRACK
TO THE NORTH ALONG A STALLED FRONT. FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MORE OF A
GFS SOLUTION IN THIS CASE...SO SIDED MORE TO A GFS/WPC
BLEND...BRINGING POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND KEEPING THEM IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA THURS NIGHT/FRI AS
THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH KEEPS A COOLER EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW DESPITE WAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT FOR THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. OVERALL...TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH WITH TIMING OF PCPN TO KEEP PCPN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. THURS NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
AREAS CURRENTLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR.

NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING AS
DIRECTIONS VEER TO THE N. GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT...WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE EAST AT 5-10 KT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. 330-350 MAG. END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN
HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. 330-350 MAG. END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN
HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. 330-350 MAG. END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. END
TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. END
TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. END
TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ON ALL
WATERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA
CRITERIA...SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TONIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING.

BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THURS NIGHT...WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN DURING THE
PERIOD...FINALLY SUBSIDING BY LATE SAT. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 5 FT INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 33
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 31
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 34
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 36
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 35
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS/DS
MARINE...JC/SEARS/MET
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET
CLIMATE...











000
FXUS61 KOKX 161350
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
950 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE AREAS RIDE A
STALLED FRONT TO THE EAST. THE HIGH FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS AND DEW PTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBS.

RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AS COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH...WITH MIXING
TO AROUND 3500 FT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN APPROACH OF FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. NO RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN TONIGHT UNLESS TEMPERATURES FALL LOWER THAN FORECAST AS
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT IN THE
EVENING. THEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IN COOLER NORTHERN ATLANTIC
AIR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAYS HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PUSHES NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD
RIDGING. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE THAT COULD BRING LIGHT PCPN INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING TO THE NORTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. 00Z GFS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND
THE RESULTING PCPN WITH THE SUGGESTION OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW. ALL OTHER MODELS KEEP A DISTINCT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO SO
WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NOW WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE PCPN OCCURS. AN APPROACHING
FRONT SAT COULD TRIGGER SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. THINGS THEN DRY OUT FOR SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS LINGERS THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THEN
BRINGS A WEAK FRONT IN FROM THE WEST WHILE ECMWF AND CMC BOTH
DEVELOP A DECENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL FLORIDA AND TRACK
TO THE NORTH ALONG A STALLED FRONT. FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MORE OF A
GFS SOLUTION IN THIS CASE...SO SIDED MORE TO A GFS/WPC
BLEND...BRINGING POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND KEEPING THEM IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA THURS NIGHT/FRI AS
THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH KEEPS A COOLER EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW DESPITE WAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT FOR THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. OVERALL...TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH WITH TIMING OF PCPN TO KEEP PCPN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. THURS NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
AREAS CURRENTLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT
WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE N. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N.

LATE TONIGHT...WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE EAST AT 5-10 KT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 330-350 MAG 20G30KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 320-340 MAG 20G30KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 330-350 MAG 20G30KT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NW
15-20G25-30 KT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NW
15-20G25-30 KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NNW
20G30KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ON ALL
WATERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA
CRITERIA...SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TONIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING.

BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THURS NIGHT...WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN DURING THE
PERIOD...FINALLY SUBSIDING BY LATE SAT. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 5 FT INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 33
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 31
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 34
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 36
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 35
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/SEARS/MET
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 161128
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
728 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE AREAS RIDE A
STALLED FRONT TO THE EAST. THE HIGH FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING AS COLD AIR MOVED
IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES FELL BELOW
FREEZING. AS OF 12Z...TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...WITH
THE EXPECTATION SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY 10 AM. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS AND DEW PTS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS.

RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AS COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH...WITH MIXING
TO AROUND 900 MB. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN APPROACH OF FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. NO RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN TONIGHT UNLESS TEMPERATURES FALL LOWER THAN FORECAST AS
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT IN THE
EVENING. THEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IN COOLER NORTHERN ATLANTIC
AIR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAYS HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PUSHES NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD
RIDGING. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE THAT COULD BRING LIGHT PCPN INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING TO THE NORTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. 00Z GFS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND
THE RESULTING PCPN WITH THE SUGGESTION OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW. ALL OTHER MODELS KEEP A DISTINCT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO SO
WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NOW WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE PCPN OCCURS. AN APPROACHING
FRONT SAT COULD TRIGGER SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. THINGS THEN DRY OUT FOR SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS LINGERS THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THEN
BRINGS A WEAK FRONT IN FROM THE WEST WHILE ECMWF AND CMC BOTH
DEVELOP A DECENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL FLORIDA AND TRACK
TO THE NORTH ALONG A STALLED FRONT. FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MORE OF A
GFS SOLUTION IN THIS CASE...SO SIDED MORE TO A GFS/WPC
BLEND...BRINGING POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND KEEPING THEM IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA THURS NIGHT/FRI AS
THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH KEEPS A COOLER EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW DESPITE WAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT FOR THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. OVERALL...TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH WITH TIMING OF PCPN TO KEEP PCPN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. THURS NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
AREAS CURRENTLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT
WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE N. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N.

LATE TONIGHT...WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE EAST AT 5-10 KT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 330-350 MAG 20G30KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 320-340 MAG 20G30KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 330-350 MAG 20G30KT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NW
15-20G25-30 KT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NW
15-20G25-30 KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NNW
20G30KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ON ALL
WATERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA
CRITERIA...SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TONIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING.

BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THURS NIGHT...WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN DURING THE
PERIOD...FINALLY SUBSIDING BY LATE SAT. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 5 FT INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 33
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 31
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 34
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 36
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 35
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET
NEAR TERM...SEARS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...SEARS/MET
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET
CLIMATE...












000
FXUS61 KOKX 160932
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
532 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE AREAS RIDE A
STALLED FRONT TO THE EAST. THE HIGH FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT EARLY THIS MORNING AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW. THE LAST OF THE WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION MOVED
EAST OF THE AREA AT 09Z...AND UPDATED TO REMOVE FROM GRIDS.

RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AS COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH...WITH MIXING
TO AROUND 900 MB. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN APPROACH OF FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. NO RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN TONIGHT UNLESS TEMPERATURES FALL LOWER THAN FORECAST AS
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT IN THE
EVENING. THEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IN COOLER NORTHERN ATLANTIC
AIR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAYS HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PUSHES NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD
RIDGING. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE THAT COULD BRING LIGHT PCPN INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING TO THE NORTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. 00Z GFS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND
THE RESULTING PCPN WITH THE SUGGESTION OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW. ALL OTHER MODELS KEEP A DISTINCT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO SO
WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NOW WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE PCPN OCCURS. AN APPROACHING
FRONT SAT COULD TRIGGER SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. THINGS THEN DRY OUT FOR SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS LINGERS THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THEN
BRINGS A WEAK FRONT IN FROM THE WEST WHILE ECMWF AND CMC BOTH
DEVELOP A DECENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL FLORIDA AND TRACK
TO THE NORTH ALONG A STALLED FRONT. FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MORE OF A
GFS SOLUTION IN THIS CASE...SO SIDED MORE TO A GFS/WPC
BLEND...BRINGING POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND KEEPING THEM IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA THURS NIGHT/FRI AS
THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH KEEPS A COOLER EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW DESPITE WAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT FOR THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. OVERALL...TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH WITH TIMING OF PCPN TO KEEP PCPN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. THURS NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
AREAS CURRENTLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT
WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE N. WIND GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 330-350 MAG 20G30KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 320-340 MAG 20G30KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 330-350 MAG 20G30KT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NW
15-20G25-30 KT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NW
15-20G25-30 KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NNW
20G30KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE ON ALL THE WATERS AND
WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE AS WINDS ALOFT SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THEN SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TONIGHT INTO
AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING.

BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THURS NIGHT...WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN DURING THE
PERIOD...FINALLY SUBSIDING BY LATE SAT. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 5 FT INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING APRIL 16:

EWR - 26 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
BDR - 29 IN 1981  FORECAST LOW - 29
NYC - 29 IN 1928  FORECAST LOW - 29
LGA - 31 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
JFK - 33 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 30
ISP - 32 IN 2008  FORECAST LOW - 30

RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 33
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 31
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 34
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 36
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 35
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...SEARS/MET
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET
CLIMATE...










000
FXUS61 KOKX 160846
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
446 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE AREAS RIDE A
STALLED FRONT TO THE EAST. THE HIGH FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT EARLY THIS MORNING AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW. THE LAST OF THE WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WAS
MOVING OUT OF NEW LONDON COUNTY AND THE TWIN FORKS AT 08Z.

RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AS COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH...WITH MIXING
TO AROUND 900 MB. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN APPROACH OF FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. NO RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN TONIGHT UNLESS TEMPERATURES FALL LOWER THAN FORECAST AS
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT IN THE
EVENING. THEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IN COOLER NORTHERN ATLANTIC
AIR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAYS HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PUSHES NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD
RIDGING. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE THAT COULD BRING LIGHT PCPN INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING TO THE NORTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. 00Z GFS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND
THE RESULTING PCPN WITH THE SUGGESTION OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW. ALL OTHER MODELS KEEP A DISTINCT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO SO
WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NOW WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE PCPN OCCURS. AN APPROACHING
FRONT SAT COULD TRIGGER SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. THINGS THEN DRY OUT FOR SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS LINGERS THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THEN
BRINGS A WEAK FRONT IN FROM THE WEST WHILE ECMWF AND CMC BOTH
DEVELOP A DECENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL FLORIDA AND TRACK
TO THE NORTH ALONG A STALLED FRONT. FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MORE OF A
GFS SOLUTION IN THIS CASE...SO SIDED MORE TO A GFS/WPC
BLEND...BRINGING POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND KEEPING THEM IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA THURS NIGHT/FRI AS
THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH KEEPS A COOLER EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW DESPITE WAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT FOR THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. OVERALL...TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH WITH TIMING OF PCPN TO KEEP PCPN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. THURS NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
AREAS CURRENTLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT
WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE N. WIND GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 330-350 MAG 20G30KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 320-340 MAG 20G30KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 330-350 MAG 20G30KT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NW
15-20G25-30 KT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NW
15-20G25-30 KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NNW
20G30KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE ON ALL THE WATERS AND
WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE AS WINDS ALOFT SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THEN SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TONIGHT INTO
AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING.

BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THURS NIGHT...WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN DURING THE
PERIOD...FINALLY SUBSIDING BY LATE SAT. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 5 FT INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING APRIL 16:

EWR - 26 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
BDR - 29 IN 1981  FORECAST LOW - 29
NYC - 29 IN 1928  FORECAST LOW - 29
LGA - 31 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
JFK - 33 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 30
ISP - 32 IN 2008  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...SEARS/MET
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET
CLIMATE...










000
FXUS61 KOKX 160824
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
424 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE AREAS RIDE A
STALLED FRONT TO THE EAST. THE HIGH FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT EARLY THIS MORNING AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW. THE LAST OF THE WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WAS
MOVING OUT OF NEW LONDON COUNTY AND THE TWIN FORKS AT 08Z.

RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AS COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH...WITH MIXING
TO AROUND 900 MB. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN APPROACH OF FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. NO RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN TONIGHT UNLESS TEMPERATURES FALL LOWER THAN FORECAST AS
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT IN THE
EVENING. THEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IN COOLER NORTHERN ATLANTIC
AIR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAYS HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PUSHES NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD
RIDGING. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE THAT COULD BRING LIGHT PCPN INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING TO THE NORTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. 00Z GFS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND
THE RESULTING PCPN WITH THE SUGGESTION OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW. ALL OTHER MODELS KEEP A DISTINCT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO SO
WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NOW WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE PCPN OCCURS. AN APPROACHING
FRONT SAT COULD TRIGGER SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. THINGS THEN DRY OUT FOR SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS LINGERS THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THEN
BRINGS A WEAK FRONT IN FROM THE WEST WHILE ECMWF AND CMC BOTH
DEVELOP A DECENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL FLORIDA AND TRACK
TO THE NORTH ALONG A STALLED FRONT. FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MORE OF A
GFS SOLUTION IN THIS CASE...SO SIDED MORE TO A GFS/WPC
BLEND...BRINGING POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND KEEPING THEM IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA THURS NIGHT/FRI AS
THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH KEEPS A COOLER EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW DESPITE WAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT FOR THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. OVERALL...TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH WITH TIMING OF PCPN TO KEEP PCPN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. THURS NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
AREAS CURRENTLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AND
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING.

CONDS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MVFR/IFR TO VFR AS THE
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. BY
08Z...CONDS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGHOUT.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. NW WINDS...320-350 TRUE...WILL RANGE
FROM 15-20 KT WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE N. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
TO THE N.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE ON ALL THE WATERS AND
WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE AS WINDS ALOFT SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THEN SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TONIGHT INTO
AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING.

BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THURS NIGHT...WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN DURING THE
PERIOD...FINALLY SUBSIDING BY LATE SAT. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 5 FT INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING APRIL 16:

EWR - 26 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
BDR - 29 IN 1981  FORECAST LOW - 29
NYC - 29 IN 1928  FORECAST LOW - 29
LGA - 31 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
JFK - 33 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 30
ISP - 32 IN 2008  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...SEARS/MET
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KOKX 160553
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
153 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGH THEN LIFTS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AND UP INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PASSES EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH CAPE COD EARLY THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING OVER THE REGION. RAIN WAS TRANSITIONS
TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO BEHIND THE
FRONT. AT MIDNIGHT THE SNOW WAS AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NEAR BDR TO JUST WEST OF ISLIP. AND THE SNOW WAS
ENDING ACROSS WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN PASSAIC
COUNTY. FORECAST POPS AND PRECIP TYPE ON TRACK. UPDATED WIND AND
TEMPERATURES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

SLOWED THE ENDING OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO THE
SLOWER TREND INDICATED BY RADAR...SUPPORTING THE SLOWER 18Z NAM
SOLN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND FREEZING. THUS...
THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ALSO INCLUDE NYC...LONG
ISLAND...AND COASTAL CT. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO MOST OF NE NJ AND
ROCKLAND AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING COLDER. BASED ON THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS...USED
MODEL 2M TEMPS FOR LOWS...WHICH WAS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WED WITH AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S...WHICH IS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL LINGER INTO THE AFT...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

WED NIGHT WILL FEATURE ANOTHER POSSIBLE RECORD COLD NIGHT WITH
MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.
ANOTHER FREEZE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE
REGION WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY SHIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN SETS UP AN EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS ONSHORE FLOW SERVES TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY AND LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S ON FRIDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD PROMOTE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED
FRONT OFFSHORE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMA
WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH HOWEVER. AT THE VERY LEAST...SATURDAY WILL
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.

A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN DURING THIS TIME WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY AND THEN WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY.

A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AND
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING.

CONDS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MVFR/IFR TO VFR AS THE
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. BY
08Z...CONDS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGHOUT.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. NW WINDS...320-350 TRUE...WILL RANGE
FROM 15-20 KT WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE N. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
TO THE N.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AND HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FOOT TO 2 FEET BELOW FORECAST
VALUES...SO LOWERED SEAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FOR NW FLOW UP TO 35 KT
OVERNIGHT.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON WED...MAINLY WITH
LINGERING 5 FT SEAS.

SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES.
WINDS WILL TREND BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY BUT SEAS ON OFFSHORE WATERS
SHOULD STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
RELAX ON SATURDAY AS REGION WEAKER FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.
SEAS AND WINDS COULD RETURN TO SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. IN GENERAL...UP
TO 3/4 OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS E OF NYC.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 16:

EWR - 26 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
BDR - 29 IN 1981  FORECAST LOW - 29
NYC - 29 IN 1928  FORECAST LOW - 29
LGA - 31 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
JFK - 33 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 30
ISP - 32 IN 2008  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DS/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW
CLIMATE...










000
FXUS61 KOKX 160444
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1244 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGH THEN LIFTS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AND UP INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PASSES EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH CAPE COD EARLY THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING OVER THE REGION. RAIN WAS TRANSITIONS
TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO BEHIND THE
FRONT. AT MIDNIGHT THE SNOW WAS AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NEAR BDR TO JUST WEST OF ISLIP. AND THE SNOW WAS
ENDING ACROSS WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN PASSAIC
COUNTY. FORECAST POPS AND PERCIP TYPE ON TRACK. UPDATED WIND AND
TEMPERATURES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

SLOWED THE ENDING OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO THE
SLOWER TREND INDICATED BY RADAR...SUPPORTING THE SLOWER 18Z NAM
SOLN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND FREEZING. THUS...
THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ALSO INCLUDE NYC...LONG
ISLAND...AND COASTAL CT. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO MOST OF NE NJ AND
ROCKLAND AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING COLDER. BASED ON THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS...USED
MODEL 2M TEMPS FOR LOWS...WHICH WAS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WED WITH AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S...WHICH IS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL LINGER INTO THE AFT...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

WED NIGHT WILL FEATURE ANOTHER POSSIBLE RECORD COLD NIGHT WITH
MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.
ANOTHER FREEZE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE
REGION WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY SHIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN SETS UP AN EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS ONSHORE FLOW SERVES TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY AND LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S ON FRIDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD PROMOTE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED
FRONT OFFSHORE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMA
WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH HOWEVER. AT THE VERY LEAST...SATURDAY WILL
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.

A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN DURING THIS TIME WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY AND THEN WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY.

A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM MVFR VARIABLE IFR TO VFR INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOULD SEE -SHRA TRANSITION OVER TO AT LEAST
A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT ALL TERMINALS...AND OVER TO ALL -SN AT KSWF AND
POSSIBLY KHPN BEFORE ENDING. POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATION
KSWF...AND LESS THAN 1 INCH KHPN. LOW PROBABILITY OF A COATING OF
SLUSH ELSEWHERE.

WINDS NW G20-30KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE ISOLATED 35-40KT
GUSTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE NNW. WIND GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AND HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FOOT TO 2 FEET BELOW FORECAST
VALUES...SO LOWERED SEAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FOR NW FLOW UP TO 35 KT
OVERNIGHT.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON WED...MAINLY WITH
LINGERING 5 FT SEAS.

SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES.
WINDS WILL TREND BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY BUT SEAS ON OFFSHORE WATERS
SHOULD STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
RELAX ON SATURDAY AS REGION WEAKER FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.
SEAS AND WINDS COULD RETURN TO SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. IN GENERAL...UP
TO 3/4 OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS E OF NYC.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 16:

EWR - 26 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
BDR - 29 IN 1981  FORECAST LOW - 29
NYC - 29 IN 1928  FORECAST LOW - 29
LGA - 31 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
JFK - 33 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 30
ISP - 32 IN 2008  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$








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