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000
FXUS61 KOKX 290122
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
922 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE THEN GIVES
WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS NEAR THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK AND ONCE AGAIN
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION...AND IS
NOW THROUGH THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHEAST NJ...NYC...AND
MUCH OF SOUTHERN CT AS SHOWN BY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 70S BEHIND IT. SFC DEWPOINTS ALSO FALLING
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS
ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AS WELL FROM WEST
TO EAST.

SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AWAY FROM NYC LATE TONIGHT AND
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS THERE IS SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE
TO RAINFALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND AREAS ALONG THE COAST FROM
BEING NEAR THE OCEAN.

FORECAST LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PROVIDE THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING FOR A
SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WAS
USED FOR HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE...EVEN ACROSS THE
COASTAL ZONES IN SPITE OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

CLOUDS AND MOISTURE THEN INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. REMAINING DRY...BUT
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALSO
POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE JET STREAM STAYS NORTH OF THE REGION UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN
IT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND AND THEN WITH RIDGING...THE JET
PUSHES BACK NORTH OF THE AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. IN THE
MID LEVELS...THE OFFSHORE RIDGE BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A BROADENING QUASI ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES CLOSER TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN THEREAFTER.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY. THE
PARENT LOW ATTACHED TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY
DEEPENING WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENING
MORE WITHIN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING WITHIN INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY RETURNS TUESDAY FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER EAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND...CONDITIONS
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST
REGION AND FURTHERMORE ON SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH THE FRONT STALLING NEAR THE
REGION...SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY.

THE AIRMASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM BUT COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WELL INTO
70S AND INTO LOWER 80S SATURDAY BUT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY.
HIGHS LOWER INTO MAINLY THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK TRENDING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES. LOWS WITHIN THE 60S SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITHIN
THE 50S ON AVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN THEY
TREND BACK TO NORMAL AS WELL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE NYC METRO EARLY THIS
EVENING...WILL PASS EAST OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

VFR WITH SKIES CLEARING TONIGHT AND REMAINING SO FRIDAY.

VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING N THIS EVENING. LIGHT N WINDS FRIDAY
MORNING FOR NYC/NJ METRO TERMINALS...BECOMING S/SE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRI AFTERNOON S/SE SEABREEZE MAY
BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRI AFTERNOON S/SE SEABREEZE MAY
BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRI AFTERNOON SE SEABREEZE MAY BE
OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...MORNING MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE...THEN VFR.
INCREASING SLY FLOW ON SAT...WITH 15 TO 20 KT SLY AFT SEABREEZE
FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES.
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE E/NE.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN RA. E/NE FLOW.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
5 FT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME 5 KT OR LESS ON LI SOUND/NY HARBOR/LI
BAYS AND 5-10 KT ON THE OCEAN.

SUB-SCA CONDS THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL BUILD
SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT SATURDAY LATE IN THE DAY. THE OCEAN
SEAS REMAIN WITHIN SCA RANGE...MAINLY 5 TO 7 FT...FOR THE REST OF
THE MARINE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS BEING MORE MARGINAL EXCEPT
FOR WESTERN OCEAN SATURDAY WITH AMBROSE JET LIKELY ENHANCING WINDS
AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS WILL REACH NEAR 25 KT. THE
FLOW SWITCHES TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP SWELLS AND HIGHER SEAS WITHIN THE OCEAN FORECAST
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...MAINLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY EXACT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...BUT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN
PRECIPITABLE WATERS REACH 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THEREFORE
AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM





000
FXUS61 KOKX 290007
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
807 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE THEN GIVES
WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS NEAR THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK AND ONCE AGAIN
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH NORTHEAST NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHWEST CT...NYC AS OF 7 PM. LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PASS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT...CLEARING ALL OF LONG ISLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN CLEARING THE OCEAN FORECAST WATERS BY
DAYBREAK.

CONVECTION COVERAGE RAPIDLY DECREASING WITH ONLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING ACROSS LONG ISLAND SOUND AND WESTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY. EXPECTING COVERAGE TO FURTHER DECREASE THIS
EVENING. ANY REMAINING CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED.

EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATE THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING
CLOUDS. FORECAST LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM MID 50S TO MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PROVIDE THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING FOR A
SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WAS
USED FOR HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE...EVEN ACROSS THE
COASTAL ZONES IN SPITE OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

CLOUDS AND MOISTURE THEN INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. REMAINING DRY...BUT
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALSO
POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE JET STREAM STAYS NORTH OF THE REGION UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN
IT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND AND THEN WITH RIDGING...THE JET
PUSHES BACK NORTH OF THE AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. IN THE
MID LEVELS...THE OFFSHORE RIDGE BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A BROADENING QUASI ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES CLOSER TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN THEREAFTER.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY. THE
PARENT LOW ATTACHED TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY
DEEPENING WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENING
MORE WITHIN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING WITHIN INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY RETURNS TUESDAY FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER EAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND...CONDITIONS
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST
REGION AND FURTHERMORE ON SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH THE FRONT STALLING NEAR THE
REGION...SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY.

THE AIRMASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM BUT COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WELL INTO
70S AND INTO LOWER 80S SATURDAY BUT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY.
HIGHS LOWER INTO MAINLY THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK TRENDING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES. LOWS WITHIN THE 60S SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITHIN
THE 50S ON AVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN THEY
TREND BACK TO NORMAL AS WELL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE NYC METRO EARLY THIS
EVENING...WILL PASS EAST OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

VFR WITH SKIES CLEARING TONIGHT AND REMAINING SO FRIDAY.

VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING N THIS EVENING. LIGHT N WINDS FRIDAY
MORNING FOR NYC/NJ METRO TERMINALS...BECOMING S/SE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRI AFTERNOON S/SE SEABREEZE MAY
BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRI AFTERNOON S/SE SEABREEZE MAY
BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRI AFTERNOON SE SEABREEZE MAY BE
OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...MORNING MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE...THEN VFR.
INCREASING SLY FLOW ON SAT...WITH 15 TO 20 KT SLY AFT SEABREEZE
FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES.
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE E/NE.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN RA. E/NE FLOW.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING IN AND A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHIFTING IN WITH A TROUGH...NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO PICK
UP TOO MUCH THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25
KT...BUT THINKING THIS LIKELY WOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD CASE. SEAS
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FT BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. SUB-SCA
CONDS THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
REMAINING BELOW 15 KT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL BUILD
SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT SATURDAY LATE IN THE DAY. THE OCEAN
SEAS REMAIN WITHIN SCA RANGE...MAINLY 5 TO 7 FT...FOR THE REST OF
THE MARINE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS BEING MORE MARGINAL EXCEPT
FOR WESTERN OCEAN SATURDAY WITH AMBROSE JET LIKELY ENHANCING WINDS
AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS WILL REACH NEAR 25 KT. THE
FLOW SWITCHES TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP SWELLS AND HIGHER SEAS WITHIN THE OCEAN FORECAST
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TSTMS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
WIDESPREAD. MOST LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS
WOULD PROBABLY SEE MINOR URBANIZED/SMALL STREAM FLOODING AT MOST.

THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...MAINLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY EXACT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...BUT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN PRECIPITABLE
WATERS REACH 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THEREFORE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING
OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/JM
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 290007
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
807 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE THEN GIVES
WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS NEAR THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK AND ONCE AGAIN
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH NORTHEAST NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHWEST CT...NYC AS OF 7 PM. LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PASS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT...CLEARING ALL OF LONG ISLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN CLEARING THE OCEAN FORECAST WATERS BY
DAYBREAK.

CONVECTION COVERAGE RAPIDLY DECREASING WITH ONLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING ACROSS LONG ISLAND SOUND AND WESTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY. EXPECTING COVERAGE TO FURTHER DECREASE THIS
EVENING. ANY REMAINING CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED.

EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATE THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING
CLOUDS. FORECAST LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM MID 50S TO MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PROVIDE THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING FOR A
SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WAS
USED FOR HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE...EVEN ACROSS THE
COASTAL ZONES IN SPITE OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

CLOUDS AND MOISTURE THEN INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. REMAINING DRY...BUT
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALSO
POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE JET STREAM STAYS NORTH OF THE REGION UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN
IT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND AND THEN WITH RIDGING...THE JET
PUSHES BACK NORTH OF THE AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. IN THE
MID LEVELS...THE OFFSHORE RIDGE BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A BROADENING QUASI ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES CLOSER TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN THEREAFTER.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY. THE
PARENT LOW ATTACHED TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY
DEEPENING WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENING
MORE WITHIN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING WITHIN INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY RETURNS TUESDAY FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER EAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND...CONDITIONS
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST
REGION AND FURTHERMORE ON SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH THE FRONT STALLING NEAR THE
REGION...SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY.

THE AIRMASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM BUT COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WELL INTO
70S AND INTO LOWER 80S SATURDAY BUT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY.
HIGHS LOWER INTO MAINLY THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK TRENDING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES. LOWS WITHIN THE 60S SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITHIN
THE 50S ON AVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN THEY
TREND BACK TO NORMAL AS WELL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE NYC METRO EARLY THIS
EVENING...WILL PASS EAST OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

VFR WITH SKIES CLEARING TONIGHT AND REMAINING SO FRIDAY.

VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING N THIS EVENING. LIGHT N WINDS FRIDAY
MORNING FOR NYC/NJ METRO TERMINALS...BECOMING S/SE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRI AFTERNOON S/SE SEABREEZE MAY
BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRI AFTERNOON S/SE SEABREEZE MAY
BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRI AFTERNOON SE SEABREEZE MAY BE
OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...MORNING MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE...THEN VFR.
INCREASING SLY FLOW ON SAT...WITH 15 TO 20 KT SLY AFT SEABREEZE
FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES.
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE E/NE.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN RA. E/NE FLOW.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING IN AND A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHIFTING IN WITH A TROUGH...NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO PICK
UP TOO MUCH THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25
KT...BUT THINKING THIS LIKELY WOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD CASE. SEAS
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FT BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. SUB-SCA
CONDS THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
REMAINING BELOW 15 KT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL BUILD
SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT SATURDAY LATE IN THE DAY. THE OCEAN
SEAS REMAIN WITHIN SCA RANGE...MAINLY 5 TO 7 FT...FOR THE REST OF
THE MARINE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS BEING MORE MARGINAL EXCEPT
FOR WESTERN OCEAN SATURDAY WITH AMBROSE JET LIKELY ENHANCING WINDS
AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS WILL REACH NEAR 25 KT. THE
FLOW SWITCHES TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP SWELLS AND HIGHER SEAS WITHIN THE OCEAN FORECAST
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TSTMS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
WIDESPREAD. MOST LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS
WOULD PROBABLY SEE MINOR URBANIZED/SMALL STREAM FLOODING AT MOST.

THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...MAINLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY EXACT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...BUT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN PRECIPITABLE
WATERS REACH 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THEREFORE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING
OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/JM
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 290007
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
807 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE THEN GIVES
WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS NEAR THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK AND ONCE AGAIN
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH NORTHEAST NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHWEST CT...NYC AS OF 7 PM. LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PASS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT...CLEARING ALL OF LONG ISLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN CLEARING THE OCEAN FORECAST WATERS BY
DAYBREAK.

CONVECTION COVERAGE RAPIDLY DECREASING WITH ONLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING ACROSS LONG ISLAND SOUND AND WESTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY. EXPECTING COVERAGE TO FURTHER DECREASE THIS
EVENING. ANY REMAINING CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED.

EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATE THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING
CLOUDS. FORECAST LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM MID 50S TO MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PROVIDE THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING FOR A
SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WAS
USED FOR HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE...EVEN ACROSS THE
COASTAL ZONES IN SPITE OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

CLOUDS AND MOISTURE THEN INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. REMAINING DRY...BUT
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALSO
POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE JET STREAM STAYS NORTH OF THE REGION UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN
IT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND AND THEN WITH RIDGING...THE JET
PUSHES BACK NORTH OF THE AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. IN THE
MID LEVELS...THE OFFSHORE RIDGE BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A BROADENING QUASI ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES CLOSER TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN THEREAFTER.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY. THE
PARENT LOW ATTACHED TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY
DEEPENING WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENING
MORE WITHIN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING WITHIN INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY RETURNS TUESDAY FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER EAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND...CONDITIONS
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST
REGION AND FURTHERMORE ON SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH THE FRONT STALLING NEAR THE
REGION...SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY.

THE AIRMASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM BUT COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WELL INTO
70S AND INTO LOWER 80S SATURDAY BUT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY.
HIGHS LOWER INTO MAINLY THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK TRENDING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES. LOWS WITHIN THE 60S SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITHIN
THE 50S ON AVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN THEY
TREND BACK TO NORMAL AS WELL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE NYC METRO EARLY THIS
EVENING...WILL PASS EAST OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

VFR WITH SKIES CLEARING TONIGHT AND REMAINING SO FRIDAY.

VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING N THIS EVENING. LIGHT N WINDS FRIDAY
MORNING FOR NYC/NJ METRO TERMINALS...BECOMING S/SE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRI AFTERNOON S/SE SEABREEZE MAY
BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRI AFTERNOON S/SE SEABREEZE MAY
BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRI AFTERNOON SE SEABREEZE MAY BE
OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...MORNING MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE...THEN VFR.
INCREASING SLY FLOW ON SAT...WITH 15 TO 20 KT SLY AFT SEABREEZE
FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES.
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE E/NE.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN RA. E/NE FLOW.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING IN AND A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHIFTING IN WITH A TROUGH...NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO PICK
UP TOO MUCH THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25
KT...BUT THINKING THIS LIKELY WOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD CASE. SEAS
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FT BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. SUB-SCA
CONDS THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
REMAINING BELOW 15 KT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL BUILD
SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT SATURDAY LATE IN THE DAY. THE OCEAN
SEAS REMAIN WITHIN SCA RANGE...MAINLY 5 TO 7 FT...FOR THE REST OF
THE MARINE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS BEING MORE MARGINAL EXCEPT
FOR WESTERN OCEAN SATURDAY WITH AMBROSE JET LIKELY ENHANCING WINDS
AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS WILL REACH NEAR 25 KT. THE
FLOW SWITCHES TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP SWELLS AND HIGHER SEAS WITHIN THE OCEAN FORECAST
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TSTMS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
WIDESPREAD. MOST LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS
WOULD PROBABLY SEE MINOR URBANIZED/SMALL STREAM FLOODING AT MOST.

THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...MAINLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY EXACT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...BUT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN PRECIPITABLE
WATERS REACH 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THEREFORE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING
OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/JM
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM





000
FXUS61 KOKX 290007
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
807 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE THEN GIVES
WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS NEAR THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK AND ONCE AGAIN
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH NORTHEAST NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHWEST CT...NYC AS OF 7 PM. LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PASS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT...CLEARING ALL OF LONG ISLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN CLEARING THE OCEAN FORECAST WATERS BY
DAYBREAK.

CONVECTION COVERAGE RAPIDLY DECREASING WITH ONLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING ACROSS LONG ISLAND SOUND AND WESTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY. EXPECTING COVERAGE TO FURTHER DECREASE THIS
EVENING. ANY REMAINING CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED.

EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATE THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING
CLOUDS. FORECAST LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM MID 50S TO MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PROVIDE THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING FOR A
SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WAS
USED FOR HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE...EVEN ACROSS THE
COASTAL ZONES IN SPITE OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

CLOUDS AND MOISTURE THEN INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. REMAINING DRY...BUT
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALSO
POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE JET STREAM STAYS NORTH OF THE REGION UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN
IT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND AND THEN WITH RIDGING...THE JET
PUSHES BACK NORTH OF THE AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. IN THE
MID LEVELS...THE OFFSHORE RIDGE BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A BROADENING QUASI ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES CLOSER TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN THEREAFTER.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY. THE
PARENT LOW ATTACHED TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY
DEEPENING WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENING
MORE WITHIN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING WITHIN INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY RETURNS TUESDAY FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER EAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND...CONDITIONS
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST
REGION AND FURTHERMORE ON SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH THE FRONT STALLING NEAR THE
REGION...SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY.

THE AIRMASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM BUT COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WELL INTO
70S AND INTO LOWER 80S SATURDAY BUT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY.
HIGHS LOWER INTO MAINLY THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK TRENDING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES. LOWS WITHIN THE 60S SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITHIN
THE 50S ON AVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN THEY
TREND BACK TO NORMAL AS WELL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE NYC METRO EARLY THIS
EVENING...WILL PASS EAST OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

VFR WITH SKIES CLEARING TONIGHT AND REMAINING SO FRIDAY.

VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING N THIS EVENING. LIGHT N WINDS FRIDAY
MORNING FOR NYC/NJ METRO TERMINALS...BECOMING S/SE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRI AFTERNOON S/SE SEABREEZE MAY
BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRI AFTERNOON S/SE SEABREEZE MAY
BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRI AFTERNOON SE SEABREEZE MAY BE
OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...MORNING MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE...THEN VFR.
INCREASING SLY FLOW ON SAT...WITH 15 TO 20 KT SLY AFT SEABREEZE
FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES.
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE E/NE.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN RA. E/NE FLOW.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING IN AND A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHIFTING IN WITH A TROUGH...NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO PICK
UP TOO MUCH THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25
KT...BUT THINKING THIS LIKELY WOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD CASE. SEAS
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FT BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. SUB-SCA
CONDS THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
REMAINING BELOW 15 KT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL BUILD
SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT SATURDAY LATE IN THE DAY. THE OCEAN
SEAS REMAIN WITHIN SCA RANGE...MAINLY 5 TO 7 FT...FOR THE REST OF
THE MARINE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS BEING MORE MARGINAL EXCEPT
FOR WESTERN OCEAN SATURDAY WITH AMBROSE JET LIKELY ENHANCING WINDS
AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS WILL REACH NEAR 25 KT. THE
FLOW SWITCHES TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP SWELLS AND HIGHER SEAS WITHIN THE OCEAN FORECAST
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TSTMS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
WIDESPREAD. MOST LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS
WOULD PROBABLY SEE MINOR URBANIZED/SMALL STREAM FLOODING AT MOST.

THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...MAINLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY EXACT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...BUT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN PRECIPITABLE
WATERS REACH 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THEREFORE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING
OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/JM
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM





000
FXUS61 KOKX 282325
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
725 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE THEN GIVES
WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS NEAR THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK AND ONCE AGAIN
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH NORTHEAST NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHWEST CT...NYC AS OF 7 PM. LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PASS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT...CLEARING ALL OF LONG ISLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN CLEARING THE OCEAN FORECAST WATERS BY
DAYBREAK.

CONVECTION COVERAGE RAPIDLY DECREASING WITH ONLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING ACROSS LONG ISLAND SOUND AND WESTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY. EXPECTING COVERAGE TO FURTHER DECREASE THIS
EVENING. ANY REMAINING CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED.

EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATE THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING
CLOUDS. FORECAST LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM MID 50S TO MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PROVIDE THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING FOR A
SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WAS
USED FOR HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE...EVEN ACROSS THE
COASTAL ZONES IN SPITE OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

CLOUDS AND MOISTURE THEN INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. REMAINING DRY...BUT
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALSO
POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE JET STREAM STAYS NORTH OF THE REGION UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN
IT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND AND THEN WITH RIDGING...THE JET
PUSHES BACK NORTH OF THE AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. IN THE
MID LEVELS...THE OFFSHORE RIDGE BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A BROADENING QUASI ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES CLOSER TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN THEREAFTER.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY. THE
PARENT LOW ATTACHED TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY
DEEPENING WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENING
MORE WITHIN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING WITHIN INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY RETURNS TUESDAY FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER EAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND...CONDITIONS
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST
REGION AND FURTHERMORE ON SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH THE FRONT STALLING NEAR THE
REGION...SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY.

THE AIRMASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM BUT COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WELL INTO
70S AND INTO LOWER 80S SATURDAY BUT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY.
HIGHS LOWER INTO MAINLY THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK TRENDING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES. LOWS WITHIN THE 60S SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITHIN
THE 50S ON AVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN THEY
TREND BACK TO NORMAL AS WELL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY.

MAINLY VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PESKY LINGERING STRATUS OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT
COASTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...WITH
TIMING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT THE AIRPORTS THRU 22Z OR 23Z.

THEN SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOUTH WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z OR 23Z. SOUTH WINDS SHIFT THIS EVENING...AND TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z OR 23Z. SOUTH WINDS SHIFT THIS EVENING...AND TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z OR 23Z. SEA BREEZE SE FLOW WILL SHIFT THIS EVENING AND
LIGHTEN.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BECOMING VFR. POSSIBLE LATE DAY SHOWER.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTERNOON-FRI EVENING...VFR. SE WINDS.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...MORNING MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE...THEN VFR.
INCREASING SLY FLOW.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES.
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING IN AND A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHIFTING IN WITH A TROUGH...NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO PICK
UP TOO MUCH THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25
KT...BUT THINKING THIS LIKELY WOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD CASE. SEAS
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FT BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. SUB-SCA
CONDS THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
REMAINING BELOW 15 KT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL BUILD
SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT SATURDAY LATE IN THE DAY. THE OCEAN
SEAS REMAIN WITHIN SCA RANGE...MAINLY 5 TO 7 FT...FOR THE REST OF
THE MARINE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS BEING MORE MARGINAL EXCEPT
FOR WESTERN OCEAN SATURDAY WITH AMBROSE JET LIKELY ENHANCING WINDS
AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS WILL REACH NEAR 25 KT. THE
FLOW SWITCHES TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP SWELLS AND HIGHER SEAS WITHIN THE OCEAN FORECAST
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TSTMS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
WIDESPREAD. MOST LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS
WOULD PROBABLY SEE MINOR URBANIZED/SMALL STREAM FLOODING AT MOST.

THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...MAINLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY EXACT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...BUT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN PRECIPITABLE
WATERS REACH 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THEREFORE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING
OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/JM
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 282325
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
725 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE THEN GIVES
WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS NEAR THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK AND ONCE AGAIN
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH NORTHEAST NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHWEST CT...NYC AS OF 7 PM. LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PASS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT...CLEARING ALL OF LONG ISLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN CLEARING THE OCEAN FORECAST WATERS BY
DAYBREAK.

CONVECTION COVERAGE RAPIDLY DECREASING WITH ONLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING ACROSS LONG ISLAND SOUND AND WESTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY. EXPECTING COVERAGE TO FURTHER DECREASE THIS
EVENING. ANY REMAINING CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED.

EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATE THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING
CLOUDS. FORECAST LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM MID 50S TO MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PROVIDE THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING FOR A
SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WAS
USED FOR HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE...EVEN ACROSS THE
COASTAL ZONES IN SPITE OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

CLOUDS AND MOISTURE THEN INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. REMAINING DRY...BUT
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALSO
POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE JET STREAM STAYS NORTH OF THE REGION UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN
IT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND AND THEN WITH RIDGING...THE JET
PUSHES BACK NORTH OF THE AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. IN THE
MID LEVELS...THE OFFSHORE RIDGE BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A BROADENING QUASI ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES CLOSER TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN THEREAFTER.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY. THE
PARENT LOW ATTACHED TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY
DEEPENING WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENING
MORE WITHIN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING WITHIN INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY RETURNS TUESDAY FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER EAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND...CONDITIONS
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST
REGION AND FURTHERMORE ON SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH THE FRONT STALLING NEAR THE
REGION...SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY.

THE AIRMASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM BUT COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WELL INTO
70S AND INTO LOWER 80S SATURDAY BUT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY.
HIGHS LOWER INTO MAINLY THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK TRENDING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES. LOWS WITHIN THE 60S SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITHIN
THE 50S ON AVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN THEY
TREND BACK TO NORMAL AS WELL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY.

MAINLY VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PESKY LINGERING STRATUS OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT
COASTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...WITH
TIMING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT THE AIRPORTS THRU 22Z OR 23Z.

THEN SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOUTH WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z OR 23Z. SOUTH WINDS SHIFT THIS EVENING...AND TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z OR 23Z. SOUTH WINDS SHIFT THIS EVENING...AND TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z OR 23Z. SEA BREEZE SE FLOW WILL SHIFT THIS EVENING AND
LIGHTEN.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BECOMING VFR. POSSIBLE LATE DAY SHOWER.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTERNOON-FRI EVENING...VFR. SE WINDS.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...MORNING MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE...THEN VFR.
INCREASING SLY FLOW.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES.
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING IN AND A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHIFTING IN WITH A TROUGH...NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO PICK
UP TOO MUCH THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25
KT...BUT THINKING THIS LIKELY WOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD CASE. SEAS
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FT BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. SUB-SCA
CONDS THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
REMAINING BELOW 15 KT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL BUILD
SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT SATURDAY LATE IN THE DAY. THE OCEAN
SEAS REMAIN WITHIN SCA RANGE...MAINLY 5 TO 7 FT...FOR THE REST OF
THE MARINE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS BEING MORE MARGINAL EXCEPT
FOR WESTERN OCEAN SATURDAY WITH AMBROSE JET LIKELY ENHANCING WINDS
AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS WILL REACH NEAR 25 KT. THE
FLOW SWITCHES TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP SWELLS AND HIGHER SEAS WITHIN THE OCEAN FORECAST
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TSTMS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
WIDESPREAD. MOST LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS
WOULD PROBABLY SEE MINOR URBANIZED/SMALL STREAM FLOODING AT MOST.

THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...MAINLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY EXACT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...BUT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN PRECIPITABLE
WATERS REACH 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THEREFORE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING
OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/JM
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 282325
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
725 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE THEN GIVES
WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS NEAR THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK AND ONCE AGAIN
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH NORTHEAST NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHWEST CT...NYC AS OF 7 PM. LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PASS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT...CLEARING ALL OF LONG ISLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN CLEARING THE OCEAN FORECAST WATERS BY
DAYBREAK.

CONVECTION COVERAGE RAPIDLY DECREASING WITH ONLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING ACROSS LONG ISLAND SOUND AND WESTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY. EXPECTING COVERAGE TO FURTHER DECREASE THIS
EVENING. ANY REMAINING CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED.

EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATE THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING
CLOUDS. FORECAST LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM MID 50S TO MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PROVIDE THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING FOR A
SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WAS
USED FOR HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE...EVEN ACROSS THE
COASTAL ZONES IN SPITE OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

CLOUDS AND MOISTURE THEN INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. REMAINING DRY...BUT
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALSO
POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE JET STREAM STAYS NORTH OF THE REGION UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN
IT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND AND THEN WITH RIDGING...THE JET
PUSHES BACK NORTH OF THE AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. IN THE
MID LEVELS...THE OFFSHORE RIDGE BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A BROADENING QUASI ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES CLOSER TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN THEREAFTER.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY. THE
PARENT LOW ATTACHED TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY
DEEPENING WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENING
MORE WITHIN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING WITHIN INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY RETURNS TUESDAY FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER EAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND...CONDITIONS
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST
REGION AND FURTHERMORE ON SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH THE FRONT STALLING NEAR THE
REGION...SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY.

THE AIRMASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM BUT COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WELL INTO
70S AND INTO LOWER 80S SATURDAY BUT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY.
HIGHS LOWER INTO MAINLY THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK TRENDING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES. LOWS WITHIN THE 60S SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITHIN
THE 50S ON AVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN THEY
TREND BACK TO NORMAL AS WELL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY.

MAINLY VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PESKY LINGERING STRATUS OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT
COASTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...WITH
TIMING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT THE AIRPORTS THRU 22Z OR 23Z.

THEN SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOUTH WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z OR 23Z. SOUTH WINDS SHIFT THIS EVENING...AND TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z OR 23Z. SOUTH WINDS SHIFT THIS EVENING...AND TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z OR 23Z. SEA BREEZE SE FLOW WILL SHIFT THIS EVENING AND
LIGHTEN.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BECOMING VFR. POSSIBLE LATE DAY SHOWER.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTERNOON-FRI EVENING...VFR. SE WINDS.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...MORNING MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE...THEN VFR.
INCREASING SLY FLOW.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES.
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING IN AND A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHIFTING IN WITH A TROUGH...NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO PICK
UP TOO MUCH THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25
KT...BUT THINKING THIS LIKELY WOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD CASE. SEAS
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FT BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. SUB-SCA
CONDS THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
REMAINING BELOW 15 KT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL BUILD
SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT SATURDAY LATE IN THE DAY. THE OCEAN
SEAS REMAIN WITHIN SCA RANGE...MAINLY 5 TO 7 FT...FOR THE REST OF
THE MARINE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS BEING MORE MARGINAL EXCEPT
FOR WESTERN OCEAN SATURDAY WITH AMBROSE JET LIKELY ENHANCING WINDS
AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS WILL REACH NEAR 25 KT. THE
FLOW SWITCHES TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP SWELLS AND HIGHER SEAS WITHIN THE OCEAN FORECAST
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TSTMS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
WIDESPREAD. MOST LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS
WOULD PROBABLY SEE MINOR URBANIZED/SMALL STREAM FLOODING AT MOST.

THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...MAINLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY EXACT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...BUT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN PRECIPITABLE
WATERS REACH 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THEREFORE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING
OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/JM
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM





000
FXUS61 KOKX 282325
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
725 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE THEN GIVES
WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS NEAR THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK AND ONCE AGAIN
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH NORTHEAST NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHWEST CT...NYC AS OF 7 PM. LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PASS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT...CLEARING ALL OF LONG ISLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN CLEARING THE OCEAN FORECAST WATERS BY
DAYBREAK.

CONVECTION COVERAGE RAPIDLY DECREASING WITH ONLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING ACROSS LONG ISLAND SOUND AND WESTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY. EXPECTING COVERAGE TO FURTHER DECREASE THIS
EVENING. ANY REMAINING CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED.

EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATE THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING
CLOUDS. FORECAST LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM MID 50S TO MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PROVIDE THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING FOR A
SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WAS
USED FOR HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE...EVEN ACROSS THE
COASTAL ZONES IN SPITE OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

CLOUDS AND MOISTURE THEN INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. REMAINING DRY...BUT
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALSO
POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE JET STREAM STAYS NORTH OF THE REGION UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN
IT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND AND THEN WITH RIDGING...THE JET
PUSHES BACK NORTH OF THE AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. IN THE
MID LEVELS...THE OFFSHORE RIDGE BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A BROADENING QUASI ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES CLOSER TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN THEREAFTER.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY. THE
PARENT LOW ATTACHED TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY
DEEPENING WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENING
MORE WITHIN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING WITHIN INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY RETURNS TUESDAY FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER EAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND...CONDITIONS
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST
REGION AND FURTHERMORE ON SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH THE FRONT STALLING NEAR THE
REGION...SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY.

THE AIRMASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM BUT COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WELL INTO
70S AND INTO LOWER 80S SATURDAY BUT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY.
HIGHS LOWER INTO MAINLY THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK TRENDING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES. LOWS WITHIN THE 60S SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITHIN
THE 50S ON AVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN THEY
TREND BACK TO NORMAL AS WELL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY.

MAINLY VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PESKY LINGERING STRATUS OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT
COASTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...WITH
TIMING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT THE AIRPORTS THRU 22Z OR 23Z.

THEN SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOUTH WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z OR 23Z. SOUTH WINDS SHIFT THIS EVENING...AND TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z OR 23Z. SOUTH WINDS SHIFT THIS EVENING...AND TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z OR 23Z. SEA BREEZE SE FLOW WILL SHIFT THIS EVENING AND
LIGHTEN.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BECOMING VFR. POSSIBLE LATE DAY SHOWER.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTERNOON-FRI EVENING...VFR. SE WINDS.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...MORNING MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE...THEN VFR.
INCREASING SLY FLOW.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES.
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING IN AND A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHIFTING IN WITH A TROUGH...NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO PICK
UP TOO MUCH THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25
KT...BUT THINKING THIS LIKELY WOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD CASE. SEAS
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FT BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. SUB-SCA
CONDS THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
REMAINING BELOW 15 KT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL BUILD
SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT SATURDAY LATE IN THE DAY. THE OCEAN
SEAS REMAIN WITHIN SCA RANGE...MAINLY 5 TO 7 FT...FOR THE REST OF
THE MARINE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS BEING MORE MARGINAL EXCEPT
FOR WESTERN OCEAN SATURDAY WITH AMBROSE JET LIKELY ENHANCING WINDS
AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS WILL REACH NEAR 25 KT. THE
FLOW SWITCHES TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP SWELLS AND HIGHER SEAS WITHIN THE OCEAN FORECAST
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TSTMS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
WIDESPREAD. MOST LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS
WOULD PROBABLY SEE MINOR URBANIZED/SMALL STREAM FLOODING AT MOST.

THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...MAINLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY EXACT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...BUT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN PRECIPITABLE
WATERS REACH 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THEREFORE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING
OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/JM
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM





000
FXUS61 KOKX 282216
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
616 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE THEN GIVES
WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS NEAR THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK AND ONCE AGAIN
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 233 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR NYC...SOUTHERN CT...LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF THE
WATERS. THIS IS ESSENTIALLY OVER THE FRONTAL ZONE AND EAST OF
THERE. ACROSS NYC...CONVECTION IS MORE ISOLATED BUT IS STILL
PULSING UP OCCASIONALLY. STRONGEST CONVECTION STILL LOCATED ACROSS
FAIRFIELD CT.

THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH NORTHEAST NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AS OF 6 PM. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PASS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...CLEARING ALL OF LONG
ISLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN CLEARING THE
OCEAN FORECAST WATERS BY DAYBREAK.

LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PLUS SOME FROM A SHORTWAVE ALOFT
WILL COMBINE WITH AVAILABLE CAPE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING. MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SMALLER HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...GIVEN FORECAST WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND THE AMOUNT OF CAPE
IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...BUT WITH MARGINAL DIRECTIONAL/SPEED
SHEAR...SEVERE HAIL NOT AS LIKELY. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER BY 06Z
WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS.

THERE IS A MDT RISK FOR RIPS AT THE OCEAN INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PROVIDE THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING FOR A
SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WAS
USED FOR HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE...EVEN ACROSS THE
COASTAL ZONES IN SPITE OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

CLOUDS AND MOISTURE THEN INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. REMAINING DRY...BUT
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALSO
POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE JET STREAM STAYS NORTH OF THE REGION UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN
IT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND AND THEN WITH RIDGING...THE JET
PUSHES BACK NORTH OF THE AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. IN THE
MID LEVELS...THE OFFSHORE RIDGE BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A BROADENING QUASI ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES CLOSER TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN THEREAFTER.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY. THE
PARENT LOW ATTACHED TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY
DEEPENING WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENING
MORE WITHIN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING WITHIN INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY RETURNS TUESDAY FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER EAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND...CONDITIONS
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST
REGION AND FURTHERMORE ON SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH THE FRONT STALLING NEAR THE
REGION...SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY.

THE AIRMASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM BUT COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WELL INTO
70S AND INTO LOWER 80S SATURDAY BUT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY.
HIGHS LOWER INTO MAINLY THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK TRENDING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES. LOWS WITHIN THE 60S SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITHIN
THE 50S ON AVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN THEY
TREND BACK TO NORMAL AS WELL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY.

MAINLY VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PESKY LINGERING STRATUS OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT
COASTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...WITH
TIMING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT THE AIRPORTS THRU 22Z OR 23Z.

THEN SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOUTH WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z OR 23Z. SOUTH WINDS SHIFT THIS EVENING...AND TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z OR 23Z. SOUTH WINDS SHIFT THIS EVENING...AND TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z OR 23Z. SEA BREEZE SE FLOW WILL SHIFT THIS EVENING AND
LIGHTEN.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BECOMING VFR. POSSIBLE LATE DAY SHOWER.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTERNOON-FRI EVENING...VFR. SE WINDS.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...MORNING MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE...THEN VFR.
INCREASING SLY FLOW.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES.
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING IN AND A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHIFTING IN WITH A TROUGH...NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO PICK
UP TOO MUCH INTO EARLY EVENING. THERE COULD BE A GUST OR TWO UP TO
25 KT...BUT THINKING THIS LIKELY WOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD CASE.
SEAS LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FT BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT.
SUB-SCA CONDS THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL BUILD
SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT SATURDAY LATE IN THE DAY. THE OCEAN
SEAS REMAIN WITHIN SCA RANGE...MAINLY 5 TO 7 FT...FOR THE REST OF
THE MARINE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS BEING MORE MARGINAL EXCEPT
FOR WESTERN OCEAN SATURDAY WITH AMBROSE JET LIKELY ENHANCING WINDS
AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS WILL REACH NEAR 25 KT. THE
FLOW SWITCHES TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP SWELLS AND HIGHER SEAS WITHIN THE OCEAN FORECAST
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TSTMS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
WIDESPREAD. MOST LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS
WOULD PROBABLY SEE MINOR URBANIZED/SMALL STREAM FLOODING AT MOST.

THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...MAINLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY EXACT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...BUT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN PRECIPITABLE
WATERS REACH 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THEREFORE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING
OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/JM
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 282216
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
616 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE THEN GIVES
WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS NEAR THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK AND ONCE AGAIN
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 233 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR NYC...SOUTHERN CT...LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF THE
WATERS. THIS IS ESSENTIALLY OVER THE FRONTAL ZONE AND EAST OF
THERE. ACROSS NYC...CONVECTION IS MORE ISOLATED BUT IS STILL
PULSING UP OCCASIONALLY. STRONGEST CONVECTION STILL LOCATED ACROSS
FAIRFIELD CT.

THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH NORTHEAST NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AS OF 6 PM. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PASS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...CLEARING ALL OF LONG
ISLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN CLEARING THE
OCEAN FORECAST WATERS BY DAYBREAK.

LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PLUS SOME FROM A SHORTWAVE ALOFT
WILL COMBINE WITH AVAILABLE CAPE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING. MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SMALLER HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...GIVEN FORECAST WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND THE AMOUNT OF CAPE
IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...BUT WITH MARGINAL DIRECTIONAL/SPEED
SHEAR...SEVERE HAIL NOT AS LIKELY. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER BY 06Z
WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS.

THERE IS A MDT RISK FOR RIPS AT THE OCEAN INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PROVIDE THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING FOR A
SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WAS
USED FOR HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE...EVEN ACROSS THE
COASTAL ZONES IN SPITE OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

CLOUDS AND MOISTURE THEN INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. REMAINING DRY...BUT
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALSO
POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE JET STREAM STAYS NORTH OF THE REGION UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN
IT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND AND THEN WITH RIDGING...THE JET
PUSHES BACK NORTH OF THE AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. IN THE
MID LEVELS...THE OFFSHORE RIDGE BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A BROADENING QUASI ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES CLOSER TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN THEREAFTER.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY. THE
PARENT LOW ATTACHED TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY
DEEPENING WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENING
MORE WITHIN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING WITHIN INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY RETURNS TUESDAY FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER EAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND...CONDITIONS
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST
REGION AND FURTHERMORE ON SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH THE FRONT STALLING NEAR THE
REGION...SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY.

THE AIRMASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM BUT COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WELL INTO
70S AND INTO LOWER 80S SATURDAY BUT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY.
HIGHS LOWER INTO MAINLY THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK TRENDING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES. LOWS WITHIN THE 60S SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITHIN
THE 50S ON AVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN THEY
TREND BACK TO NORMAL AS WELL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY.

MAINLY VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PESKY LINGERING STRATUS OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT
COASTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...WITH
TIMING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT THE AIRPORTS THRU 22Z OR 23Z.

THEN SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOUTH WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z OR 23Z. SOUTH WINDS SHIFT THIS EVENING...AND TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z OR 23Z. SOUTH WINDS SHIFT THIS EVENING...AND TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z OR 23Z. SEA BREEZE SE FLOW WILL SHIFT THIS EVENING AND
LIGHTEN.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BECOMING VFR. POSSIBLE LATE DAY SHOWER.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTERNOON-FRI EVENING...VFR. SE WINDS.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...MORNING MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE...THEN VFR.
INCREASING SLY FLOW.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES.
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING IN AND A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHIFTING IN WITH A TROUGH...NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO PICK
UP TOO MUCH INTO EARLY EVENING. THERE COULD BE A GUST OR TWO UP TO
25 KT...BUT THINKING THIS LIKELY WOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD CASE.
SEAS LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FT BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT.
SUB-SCA CONDS THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL BUILD
SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT SATURDAY LATE IN THE DAY. THE OCEAN
SEAS REMAIN WITHIN SCA RANGE...MAINLY 5 TO 7 FT...FOR THE REST OF
THE MARINE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS BEING MORE MARGINAL EXCEPT
FOR WESTERN OCEAN SATURDAY WITH AMBROSE JET LIKELY ENHANCING WINDS
AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS WILL REACH NEAR 25 KT. THE
FLOW SWITCHES TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP SWELLS AND HIGHER SEAS WITHIN THE OCEAN FORECAST
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TSTMS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
WIDESPREAD. MOST LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS
WOULD PROBABLY SEE MINOR URBANIZED/SMALL STREAM FLOODING AT MOST.

THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...MAINLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY EXACT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...BUT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN PRECIPITABLE
WATERS REACH 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THEREFORE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING
OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/JM
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM





000
FXUS61 KOKX 281957
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE THEN GIVES
WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS NEAR THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK AND ONCE AGAIN
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 233 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE CWA BY DAYBREAK. LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT PLUS SOME FROM A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
AVAILABLE CAPE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
POTENTIALLY SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING. MAIN THREATS WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. SMALLER HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...GIVEN FORECAST
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND THE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE...BUT WITH MARGINAL DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR...SEVERE HAIL NOT
AS LIKELY. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER BY 06Z WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS.

THERE IS A MDT RISK FOR RIPS AT THE OCEAN INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PROVIDE THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING FOR A
SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WAS
USED FOR HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE...EVEN ACROSS THE
COASTAL ZONES IN SPITE OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

CLOUDS AND MOISTURE THEN INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. REMAINING DRY...BUT
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALSO
POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE JET STREAM STAYS NORTH OF THE REGION UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN
IT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND AND THEN WITH RIDGING...THE JET
PUSHES BACK NORTH OF THE AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. IN THE
MID LEVELS...THE OFFSHORE RIDGE BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A BROADENING QUASI ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES CLOSER TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN THEREAFTER.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY. THE
PARENT LOW ATTACHED TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY
DEEPENING WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENING
MORE WITHIN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING WITHIN INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY RETURNS TUESDAY FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER EAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND...CONDITIONS
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST
REGION AND FURTHERMORE ON SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH THE FRONT STALLING NEAR THE
REGION...SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY.

THE AIRMASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM BUT COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WELL INTO
70S AND INTO LOWER 80S SATURDAY BUT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY.
HIGHS LOWER INTO MAINLY THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK TRENDING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES. LOWS WITHIN THE 60S SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITHIN
THE 50S ON AVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN THEY
TREND BACK TO NORMAL AS WELL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY.

MAINLY VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PESKY LINGERING STRATUS OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT
COASTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...WITH
TIMING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT THE AIRPORTS THRU 22Z OR 23Z.

THEN SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOUTH WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z OR 23Z. SOUTH WINDS SHIFT THIS EVENING...AND TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z OR 23Z. SOUTH WINDS SHIFT THIS EVENING...AND TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z OR 23Z. SEA BREEZE SE FLOW WILL SHIFT THIS EVENING AND
LIGHTEN.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BECOMING VFR. POSSIBLE LATE DAY SHOWER.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTERNOON-FRI EVENING...VFR. SE WINDS.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...MORNING MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE...THEN VFR.
INCREASING SLY FLOW.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES.
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WITH A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING IN AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTING IN WITH A
TROUGH...NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO PICK UP TOO MUCH INTO EARLY EVENING.
THERE COULD BE A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT...BUT THINKING THIS LIKELY
WOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD CASE. SEAS LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FT
BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL BUILD
SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT SATURDAY LATE IN THE DAY. THE OCEAN
SEAS REMAIN WITHIN SCA RANGE...MAINLY 5 TO 7 FT...FOR THE REST OF
THE MARINE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS BEING MORE MARGINAL EXCEPT
FOR WESTERN OCEAN SATURDAY WITH AMBROSE JET LIKELY ENHANCING WINDS
AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS WILL REACH NEAR 25 KT. THE
FLOW SWITCHES TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP SWELLS AND HIGHER SEAS WITHIN THE OCEAN FORECAST
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TSTMS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
WIDESPREAD. MOST LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS
WOULD PROBABLY SEE MINOR URBANIZED/SMALL STREAM FLOODING AT MOST.

THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...MAINLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY EXACT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...BUT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN PRECIPITABLE
WATERS REACH 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THEREFORE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING
OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 281957
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE THEN GIVES
WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS NEAR THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK AND ONCE AGAIN
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 233 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE CWA BY DAYBREAK. LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT PLUS SOME FROM A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
AVAILABLE CAPE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
POTENTIALLY SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING. MAIN THREATS WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. SMALLER HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...GIVEN FORECAST
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND THE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE...BUT WITH MARGINAL DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR...SEVERE HAIL NOT
AS LIKELY. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER BY 06Z WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS.

THERE IS A MDT RISK FOR RIPS AT THE OCEAN INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PROVIDE THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING FOR A
SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WAS
USED FOR HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE...EVEN ACROSS THE
COASTAL ZONES IN SPITE OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

CLOUDS AND MOISTURE THEN INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. REMAINING DRY...BUT
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALSO
POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE JET STREAM STAYS NORTH OF THE REGION UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN
IT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND AND THEN WITH RIDGING...THE JET
PUSHES BACK NORTH OF THE AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. IN THE
MID LEVELS...THE OFFSHORE RIDGE BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A BROADENING QUASI ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES CLOSER TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN THEREAFTER.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY. THE
PARENT LOW ATTACHED TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY
DEEPENING WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENING
MORE WITHIN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING WITHIN INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY RETURNS TUESDAY FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER EAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND...CONDITIONS
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST
REGION AND FURTHERMORE ON SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH THE FRONT STALLING NEAR THE
REGION...SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY.

THE AIRMASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM BUT COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WELL INTO
70S AND INTO LOWER 80S SATURDAY BUT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY.
HIGHS LOWER INTO MAINLY THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK TRENDING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES. LOWS WITHIN THE 60S SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITHIN
THE 50S ON AVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN THEY
TREND BACK TO NORMAL AS WELL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY.

MAINLY VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PESKY LINGERING STRATUS OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT
COASTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...WITH
TIMING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT THE AIRPORTS THRU 22Z OR 23Z.

THEN SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOUTH WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z OR 23Z. SOUTH WINDS SHIFT THIS EVENING...AND TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z OR 23Z. SOUTH WINDS SHIFT THIS EVENING...AND TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z OR 23Z. SEA BREEZE SE FLOW WILL SHIFT THIS EVENING AND
LIGHTEN.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BECOMING VFR. POSSIBLE LATE DAY SHOWER.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTERNOON-FRI EVENING...VFR. SE WINDS.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...MORNING MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE...THEN VFR.
INCREASING SLY FLOW.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES.
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WITH A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING IN AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTING IN WITH A
TROUGH...NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO PICK UP TOO MUCH INTO EARLY EVENING.
THERE COULD BE A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT...BUT THINKING THIS LIKELY
WOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD CASE. SEAS LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FT
BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL BUILD
SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT SATURDAY LATE IN THE DAY. THE OCEAN
SEAS REMAIN WITHIN SCA RANGE...MAINLY 5 TO 7 FT...FOR THE REST OF
THE MARINE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS BEING MORE MARGINAL EXCEPT
FOR WESTERN OCEAN SATURDAY WITH AMBROSE JET LIKELY ENHANCING WINDS
AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS WILL REACH NEAR 25 KT. THE
FLOW SWITCHES TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP SWELLS AND HIGHER SEAS WITHIN THE OCEAN FORECAST
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TSTMS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
WIDESPREAD. MOST LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS
WOULD PROBABLY SEE MINOR URBANIZED/SMALL STREAM FLOODING AT MOST.

THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...MAINLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY EXACT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...BUT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN PRECIPITABLE
WATERS REACH 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THEREFORE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING
OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM





000
FXUS61 KOKX 281957
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE THEN GIVES
WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS NEAR THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK AND ONCE AGAIN
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 233 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE CWA BY DAYBREAK. LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT PLUS SOME FROM A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
AVAILABLE CAPE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
POTENTIALLY SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING. MAIN THREATS WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. SMALLER HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...GIVEN FORECAST
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND THE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE...BUT WITH MARGINAL DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR...SEVERE HAIL NOT
AS LIKELY. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER BY 06Z WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS.

THERE IS A MDT RISK FOR RIPS AT THE OCEAN INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PROVIDE THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING FOR A
SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WAS
USED FOR HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE...EVEN ACROSS THE
COASTAL ZONES IN SPITE OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

CLOUDS AND MOISTURE THEN INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. REMAINING DRY...BUT
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALSO
POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE JET STREAM STAYS NORTH OF THE REGION UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN
IT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND AND THEN WITH RIDGING...THE JET
PUSHES BACK NORTH OF THE AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. IN THE
MID LEVELS...THE OFFSHORE RIDGE BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A BROADENING QUASI ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES CLOSER TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN THEREAFTER.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY. THE
PARENT LOW ATTACHED TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY
DEEPENING WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENING
MORE WITHIN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING WITHIN INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY RETURNS TUESDAY FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER EAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND...CONDITIONS
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST
REGION AND FURTHERMORE ON SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH THE FRONT STALLING NEAR THE
REGION...SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY.

THE AIRMASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM BUT COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WELL INTO
70S AND INTO LOWER 80S SATURDAY BUT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY.
HIGHS LOWER INTO MAINLY THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK TRENDING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES. LOWS WITHIN THE 60S SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITHIN
THE 50S ON AVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN THEY
TREND BACK TO NORMAL AS WELL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY.

MAINLY VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PESKY LINGERING STRATUS OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT
COASTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...WITH
TIMING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT THE AIRPORTS THRU 22Z OR 23Z.

THEN SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOUTH WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z OR 23Z. SOUTH WINDS SHIFT THIS EVENING...AND TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z OR 23Z. SOUTH WINDS SHIFT THIS EVENING...AND TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z OR 23Z. SEA BREEZE SE FLOW WILL SHIFT THIS EVENING AND
LIGHTEN.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BECOMING VFR. POSSIBLE LATE DAY SHOWER.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTERNOON-FRI EVENING...VFR. SE WINDS.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...MORNING MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE...THEN VFR.
INCREASING SLY FLOW.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES.
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WITH A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING IN AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTING IN WITH A
TROUGH...NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO PICK UP TOO MUCH INTO EARLY EVENING.
THERE COULD BE A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT...BUT THINKING THIS LIKELY
WOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD CASE. SEAS LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FT
BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL BUILD
SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT SATURDAY LATE IN THE DAY. THE OCEAN
SEAS REMAIN WITHIN SCA RANGE...MAINLY 5 TO 7 FT...FOR THE REST OF
THE MARINE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS BEING MORE MARGINAL EXCEPT
FOR WESTERN OCEAN SATURDAY WITH AMBROSE JET LIKELY ENHANCING WINDS
AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS WILL REACH NEAR 25 KT. THE
FLOW SWITCHES TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP SWELLS AND HIGHER SEAS WITHIN THE OCEAN FORECAST
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TSTMS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
WIDESPREAD. MOST LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS
WOULD PROBABLY SEE MINOR URBANIZED/SMALL STREAM FLOODING AT MOST.

THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...MAINLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY EXACT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...BUT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN PRECIPITABLE
WATERS REACH 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THEREFORE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING
OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM





000
FXUS61 KOKX 281801
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
201 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY...PASS TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH INTO TUESDAY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG IT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. THIS HIGH THEN BUILDS DOWN INTO THE TRI-STATE FROM LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 233 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE IMPORTANTLY...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ON
OUR DOORSTEP AT 18Z AND CLEAR THE CWA BY AROUND 3Z. BOTH THE 00Z
NAM AND GFS SUPPORT THIS TIMING AT H5. AS SURFACE BASED CAPE
INCREASES...THE WAVE SHOULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER...PARTICULARLY
WHERE CIN IS SUFFICIENTLY ERODED AND NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH. ANYWHERE FROM NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE CITY INTO INTERIOR
CT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WILL BE IN THIS ZONE PER THE LATEST
DATA. LONG ISLAND AND ERN CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE FOR MUCH
INITIATION...AND THE FOCUS FOR THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE ON
ACTIVITY SUSTAINING WITH STORM MOTION SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 20KT.

0-6KM SHEAR DECREASES THRU THE DAY. THE BEST WINDOW FOR ORGANIZED
CELLS MAY THEREFORE BE EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH A BULK RICHARDSON
NUMBER AROUND 45 AT 18Z. BY 00Z...MULTICELLULAR DEVELOPMENT
BECOMES FAVORED WITH LESS CAPE/SHEAR BALANCE. POTENTIAL FOR ANY
WEAK TORS LOOKS TO REMAIN N OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME WHERE THE EHI
IS HIGHER.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DECLINE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE NE FLOW.

THERE IS A MDT RISK FOR RIPS AT THE OCEAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL FIZZLE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
EARLY NE WINDS TO VEER THRU THE DAY BECOMING S BY AFTERNOON. WITH
A STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...HAVE MAINTAINED THE DRY
FORECAST. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS REVEAL A BIT OF A CHALLENGE WITH
RESPECT TO TO CLOUD COVER...AS THE NAM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 3-4K FT THAN THE GFS. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR NOW BASED ON THE AMT OF SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED AND THE
NAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BIAS. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PROTRUSION OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OFFSHORE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH SW FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT. IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE RIDGE...THEN SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH FORCING OVER NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA DUE TO LEE/THERMAL DURING THE DAY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO 500-1500 J/KG OVER MOST OF THIS
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A PASSING SHORTWAVE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT
LIKELY POPS OVER FAR NW ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW 3/4 OF THE CWA.

INCREASE POPS ON SUNDAY TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT FOR SHOWERS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS - CURRENT FORECAST CAPES ARE LESS
THAN 500 J/KG - WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND THE PASSAGE
OF A 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE IN WSW FLOW ALOFT.

CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
SHORTWAVES PASSING ALOFT AND ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

ON TUESDAY HAVE COMPETITION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
(INTENSITY VARIES BETWEEN THE MODELS)...AND SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM SE CANADA. NOTING GFS IS WEAKER WITH
SHORTWAVE THAN ECMWF OR CMC - HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY OVER S ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER N ZONES.

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THINGS
DRY.

FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...

A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR HIGHS SATURDAY A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WAS BLENDED WITH A MIX OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT...NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY-TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY.

MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LINGERING STRATUS
NEAR THE LI AND SE CT COASTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
SCATTERED...WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE
AIRPORTS THRU 22Z.

THEN SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOUTH WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z. SOUTH WINDS SHIFT THIS EVENING...AND TIMING OF ANY
WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z. SOUTH WINDS SHIFT THIS EVENING...AND TIMING OF ANY
WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z. SW WINDS COULD GUST AT TIMES. WINDS SHIFT THIS
EVENING AND ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF OR MOVE EAST OF THE
AIRPORT BY 19-20Z. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM AFTER
22Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTERNOON-FRI EVENING...VFR. SE WINDS.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...MORNING MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE...THEN VFR.
INCREASING SLY FLOW.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES.
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

THE SCA REMAINS ON THE OCEAN TODAY WITH SEAS IN THE 3-5FT RANGE
AND SOME GUSTS TO 25KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS MAY
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 5FT THRESHOLD TONIGHT...BUT IT WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS POINT. ALL AREAS BELOW SCA
LEVELS ON FRI.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
S FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
ON ALL WATERS. THIS COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT. SEAS COULD THEN REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS ON
THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. AT THIS TIME SUB-
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR LONG ISLAND SOUND/NEW YORK
HARBOR/THE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER
ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE TRI-STATE. AT THIS TIME IT
IS TOO EARLY TO SPECIFY ANY AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANY STRONGER CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST THE MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 281801
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
201 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY...PASS TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH INTO TUESDAY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG IT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. THIS HIGH THEN BUILDS DOWN INTO THE TRI-STATE FROM LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 233 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE IMPORTANTLY...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ON
OUR DOORSTEP AT 18Z AND CLEAR THE CWA BY AROUND 3Z. BOTH THE 00Z
NAM AND GFS SUPPORT THIS TIMING AT H5. AS SURFACE BASED CAPE
INCREASES...THE WAVE SHOULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER...PARTICULARLY
WHERE CIN IS SUFFICIENTLY ERODED AND NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH. ANYWHERE FROM NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE CITY INTO INTERIOR
CT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WILL BE IN THIS ZONE PER THE LATEST
DATA. LONG ISLAND AND ERN CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE FOR MUCH
INITIATION...AND THE FOCUS FOR THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE ON
ACTIVITY SUSTAINING WITH STORM MOTION SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 20KT.

0-6KM SHEAR DECREASES THRU THE DAY. THE BEST WINDOW FOR ORGANIZED
CELLS MAY THEREFORE BE EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH A BULK RICHARDSON
NUMBER AROUND 45 AT 18Z. BY 00Z...MULTICELLULAR DEVELOPMENT
BECOMES FAVORED WITH LESS CAPE/SHEAR BALANCE. POTENTIAL FOR ANY
WEAK TORS LOOKS TO REMAIN N OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME WHERE THE EHI
IS HIGHER.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DECLINE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE NE FLOW.

THERE IS A MDT RISK FOR RIPS AT THE OCEAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL FIZZLE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
EARLY NE WINDS TO VEER THRU THE DAY BECOMING S BY AFTERNOON. WITH
A STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...HAVE MAINTAINED THE DRY
FORECAST. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS REVEAL A BIT OF A CHALLENGE WITH
RESPECT TO TO CLOUD COVER...AS THE NAM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 3-4K FT THAN THE GFS. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR NOW BASED ON THE AMT OF SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED AND THE
NAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BIAS. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PROTRUSION OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OFFSHORE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH SW FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT. IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE RIDGE...THEN SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH FORCING OVER NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA DUE TO LEE/THERMAL DURING THE DAY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO 500-1500 J/KG OVER MOST OF THIS
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A PASSING SHORTWAVE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT
LIKELY POPS OVER FAR NW ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW 3/4 OF THE CWA.

INCREASE POPS ON SUNDAY TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT FOR SHOWERS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS - CURRENT FORECAST CAPES ARE LESS
THAN 500 J/KG - WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND THE PASSAGE
OF A 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE IN WSW FLOW ALOFT.

CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
SHORTWAVES PASSING ALOFT AND ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

ON TUESDAY HAVE COMPETITION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
(INTENSITY VARIES BETWEEN THE MODELS)...AND SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM SE CANADA. NOTING GFS IS WEAKER WITH
SHORTWAVE THAN ECMWF OR CMC - HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY OVER S ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER N ZONES.

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THINGS
DRY.

FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...

A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR HIGHS SATURDAY A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WAS BLENDED WITH A MIX OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT...NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY-TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY.

MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LINGERING STRATUS
NEAR THE LI AND SE CT COASTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
SCATTERED...WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE
AIRPORTS THRU 22Z.

THEN SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOUTH WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z. SOUTH WINDS SHIFT THIS EVENING...AND TIMING OF ANY
WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z. SOUTH WINDS SHIFT THIS EVENING...AND TIMING OF ANY
WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z. SW WINDS COULD GUST AT TIMES. WINDS SHIFT THIS
EVENING AND ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF OR MOVE EAST OF THE
AIRPORT BY 19-20Z. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM AFTER
22Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTERNOON-FRI EVENING...VFR. SE WINDS.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...MORNING MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE...THEN VFR.
INCREASING SLY FLOW.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES.
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

THE SCA REMAINS ON THE OCEAN TODAY WITH SEAS IN THE 3-5FT RANGE
AND SOME GUSTS TO 25KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS MAY
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 5FT THRESHOLD TONIGHT...BUT IT WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS POINT. ALL AREAS BELOW SCA
LEVELS ON FRI.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
S FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
ON ALL WATERS. THIS COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT. SEAS COULD THEN REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS ON
THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. AT THIS TIME SUB-
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR LONG ISLAND SOUND/NEW YORK
HARBOR/THE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER
ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE TRI-STATE. AT THIS TIME IT
IS TOO EARLY TO SPECIFY ANY AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANY STRONGER CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST THE MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 281631
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1231 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY...PASS TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH INTO TUESDAY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG IT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. THIS HIGH THEN BUILDS DOWN INTO THE TRI-STATE FROM LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 233 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE IMPORTANTLY...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ON
OUR DOORSTEP AT 18Z AND CLEAR THE CWA BY AROUND 3Z. BOTH THE 00Z
NAM AND GFS SUPPORT THIS TIMING AT H5. AS SURFACE BASED CAPE
INCREASES...THE WAVE SHOULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER...PARTICULARLY
WHERE CIN IS SUFFICIENTLY ERODED AND NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH. ANYWHERE FROM NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE CITY INTO INTERIOR
CT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WILL BE IN THIS ZONE PER THE LATEST
DATA. LONG ISLAND AND ERN CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE FOR MUCH
INITIATION...AND THE FOCUS FOR THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE ON
ACTIVITY SUSTAINING WITH STORM MOTION SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 20KT.

0-6KM SHEAR DECREASES THRU THE DAY. THE BEST WINDOW FOR ORGANIZED
CELLS MAY THEREFORE BE EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH A BULK RICHARDSON
NUMBER AROUND 45 AT 18Z. BY 00Z...MULTICELLULAR DEVELOPMENT
BECOMES FAVORED WITH LESS CAPE/SHEAR BALANCE. POTENTIAL FOR ANY
WEAK TORS LOOKS TO REMAIN N OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME WHERE THE EHI
IS HIGHER.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DECLINE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE NE FLOW.

THERE IS A MDT RISK FOR RIPS AT THE OCEAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL FIZZLE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
EARLY NE WINDS TO VEER THRU THE DAY BECOMING S BY AFTERNOON. WITH
A STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...HAVE MAINTAINED THE DRY
FORECAST. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS REVEAL A BIT OF A CHALLENGE WITH
RESPECT TO TO CLOUD COVER...AS THE NAM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 3-4K FT THAN THE GFS. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR NOW BASED ON THE AMT OF SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED AND THE
NAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BIAS. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PROTRUSION OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OFFSHORE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH SW FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT. IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE RIDGE...THEN SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH FORCING OVER NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA DUE TO LEE/THERMAL DURING THE DAY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO 500-1500 J/KG OVER MOST OF THIS
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A PASSING SHORTWAVE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT
LIKELY POPS OVER FAR NW ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW 3/4 OF THE CWA.

INCREASE POPS ON SUNDAY TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT FOR SHOWERS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS - CURRENT FORECAST CAPES ARE LESS
THAN 500 J/KG - WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND THE PASSAGE
OF A 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE IN WSW FLOW ALOFT.

CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
SHORTWAVES PASSING ALOFT AND ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

ON TUESDAY HAVE COMPETITION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
(INTENSITY VARIES BETWEEN THE MODELS)...AND SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM SE CANADA. NOTING GFS IS WEAKER WITH
SHORTWAVE THAN ECMWF OR CMC - HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY OVER S ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER N ZONES.

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THINGS
DRY.

FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...

A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR HIGHS SATURDAY A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WAS BLENDED WITH A MIX OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT...NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY-TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

MORNING STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. KGON AND
KISP WILL HOLD ON THE LONGEST.

THEN VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. DO EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO APPROACH NYC METRO AROUND 19Z FROM THE NORTH. WILL
INCLUDE VICINITY FOR NOW BASED ON LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FOR TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF NYC TERMINALS.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
LIGHTEN TONIGHT. COASTAL GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS SHOULD SCOUR OUT BY NOON. POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE AIRPORT AFTER 19-20Z. THEY WOULD LIKELY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS SHOULD SCOUR OUT BY NOON. POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE AIRPORT AFTER 19-20Z. THEY WOULD LIKELY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS SHOULD SCOUR OUT BEFORE NOON. POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE AIRPORT AFTER 19-20Z. THEY WOULD LIKELY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS SHOULD SCOUR OUT BEFORE NOON. POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE AIRPORT AFTER 19-20Z. THEY WOULD LIKELY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS SHOULD SCOUR OUT BEFORE NOON. POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE AIRPORT AFTER 19Z. THEY WOULD LIKELY APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH OR DEVELOP NEARBY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS SHOULD SCOUR OUT EARLY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN
BEFORE THEY ARRIVE AT THE AIRPORT. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI...VFR. LIGHT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MORNING MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY
FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

THE SCA REMAINS ON THE OCEAN TODAY WITH SEAS IN THE 3-5FT RANGE
AND SOME GUSTS TO 25KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS MAY
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 5FT THRESHOLD TONIGHT...BUT IT WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS POINT. ALL AREAS BELOW SCA
LEVELS ON FRI.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
S FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
ON ALL WATERS. THIS COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT. SEAS COULD THEN REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS ON
THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. AT THIS TIME SUB-
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR LONG ISLAND SOUND/NEW YORK
HARBOR/THE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER
ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE TRI-STATE. AT THIS TIME IT
IS TOO EARLY TO SPECIFY ANY AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANY STRONGER CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST THE MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BC/PW
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 281431
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1031 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY...PASS TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH INTO TUESDAY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG IT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. THIS HIGH THEN BUILDS DOWN INTO THE TRI-STATE FROM LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATES MAINLY TO POPS AND CLOUD COVER. INCREASED POPS FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA...BUT CAPPED THEM AT CHC.

A COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER THIS AFTERNOON. MORE IMPORTANTLY...A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ON OUR DOORSTEP AT 18Z AND CLEAR THE
CWA BY AROUND 3Z. BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SUPPORT THIS TIMING AT
H5. AS SURFACE BASED CAPE INCREASES...THE WAVE SHOULD SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...PARTICULARLY WHERE CIN IS SUFFICIENTLY ERODED AND NEAR A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. ANYWHERE FROM NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU
THE CITY INTO INTERIOR CT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WILL BE IN
THIS ZONE PER THE LATEST DATA. LONG ISLAND AND ERN CT SHOULD BE
TOO STABLE FOR MUCH INITIATION...AND THE FOCUS WILL LIKELY BE ON
ACTIVITY SUSTAINING WITH STORM MOTION SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10KT.

AMT OF DESTABILIZATION INLAND WILL NEED TO BE FOLLOWED ON A
MESOSCALE BASIS THRU THE DAY AS CLOUD COVER AND PENETRATION OF
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DICTATE WHERE THE ZONE OF LIKELY INITIATION
IS.

0-6KM SHEAR DECREASES THRU THE DAY. THE BEST WINDOW FOR ORGANIZED
CELLS MAY THEREFORE BE EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH A BULK RICHARDSON
NUMBER AROUND 45 AT 18Z. BY 00Z...MULTICELLULAR DEVELOPMENT
BECOMES FAVORED WITH LESS CAPE/SHEAR BALANCE. POTENTIAL FOR ANY
WEAK TORS LOOKS TO REMAIN N OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME WHERE THE EHI
IS HIGHER.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DECLINE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE NE FLOW.

THERE IS A MDT RISK FOR RIPS AT THE OCEAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL FIZZLE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
EARLY NE WINDS TO VEER THRU THE DAY BECOMING S BY AFTERNOON. WITH
A STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...HAVE MAINTAINED THE DRY
FORECAST. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS REVEAL A BIT OF A CHALLENGE WITH
RESPECT TO TO CLOUD COVER...AS THE NAM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 3-4K FT THAN THE GFS. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR NOW BASED ON THE AMT OF SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED AND THE
NAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BIAS. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PROTRUSION OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OFFSHORE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH SW FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT. IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE RIDGE...THEN SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH FORCING OVER NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA DUE TO LEE/THERMAL DURING THE DAY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO 500-1500 J/KG OVER MOST OF THIS
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A PASSING SHORTWAVE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT
LIKELY POPS OVER FAR NW ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW 3/4 OF THE CWA.

INCREASE POPS ON SUNDAY TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT FOR SHOWERS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS - CURRENT FORECAST CAPES ARE LESS
THAN 500 J/KG - WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND THE PASSAGE
OF A 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE IN WSW FLOW ALOFT.

CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
SHORTWAVES PASSING ALOFT AND ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

ON TUESDAY HAVE COMPETITION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
(INTENSITY VARIES BETWEEN THE MODELS)...AND SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM SE CANADA. NOTING GFS IS WEAKER WITH
SHORTWAVE THAN ECMWF OR CMC - HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY OVER S ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER N ZONES.

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THINGS
DRY.

FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...

A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR HIGHS SATURDAY A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WAS BLENDED WITH A MIX OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT...NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY-TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

MORNING STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. KGON AND
KISP WILL HOLD ON THE LONGEST.

THEN VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. DO EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO APPROACH NYC METRO AROUND 19Z FROM THE NORTH. WILL
INCLUDE VICINITY FOR NOW BASED ON LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FOR TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF NYC TERMINALS.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
LIGHTEN TONIGHT. COASTAL GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS SHOULD SCOUR OUT BY NOON. POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE AIRPORT AFTER 19-20Z. THEY WOULD LIKELY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS SHOULD SCOUR OUT BY NOON. POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE AIRPORT AFTER 19-20Z. THEY WOULD LIKELY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS SHOULD SCOUR OUT BEFORE NOON. POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE AIRPORT AFTER 19-20Z. THEY WOULD LIKELY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS SHOULD SCOUR OUT BEFORE NOON. POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE AIRPORT AFTER 19-20Z. THEY WOULD LIKELY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS SHOULD SCOUR OUT BEFORE NOON. POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE AIRPORT AFTER 19Z. THEY WOULD LIKELY APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH OR DEVELOP NEARBY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS SHOULD SCOUR OUT EARLY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN
BEFORE THEY ARRIVE AT THE AIRPORT. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI...VFR. LIGHT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MORNING MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY
FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

THE SCA WAS EXTENDED ON THE OCEAN TODAY WITH SEAS IN THE 3-5FT
RANGE AND SOME GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 5FT THRESHOLD
TONIGHT...BUT IT WAS TOO MARGINAL TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS
POINT. ALL AREAS BELOW SCA LEVELS ON FRI.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
S FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
ON ALL WATERS. THIS COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT. SEAS COULD THEN REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS ON
THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. AT THIS TIME SUB-
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR LONG ISLAND SOUND/NEW YORK
HARBOR/THE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER
ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE TRI-STATE. AT THIS TIME IT
IS TOO EARLY TO SPECIFY ANY AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANY STRONGER CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST THE MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BC/PW
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 281142
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
742 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY...PASS TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH INTO TUESDAY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG IT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. THIS HIGH THEN BUILDS DOWN INTO THE TRI-STATE FROM LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM EASTERN ME THRU THE CWA AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS
MORNING...AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
THE LIMITING FACTOR IS A LACK OF INSTABILITY...WITH ALMOST NO
SURFACE BASED CAPE...AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. AS
A RESULT HAVE AROUND A 30 POP FOR ACTIVITY THIS MORNING.

A COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER THIS AFTERNOON. MORE IMPORTANTLY...A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE ACROSS WRN NY STATE
IS ON THE DOORSTEP AT 18Z AND CLEARS THE CWA BY AROUND 3Z. BOTH
THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SUPPORT THIS TIMING AT H5. AS SURFACE BASED
CAPEINCREASES...THE WAVE SHOULD SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...PARTICULARLY WHERE CIN IS SUFFICIENTLY ERODED. ANYWHERE
FROM NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE CITY INTO INTERIOR CT AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY WILL BE IN THIS ZONE PER THE LATEST DATA. LONG
ISLAND AND ERN CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE FOR MUCH INITIATION...AND
THE FOCUS WILL LIKELY BE ON ACTIVITY SUSTAINING WITH STORM MOTION
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10KT.

AMT OF DESTABILIZATION INLAND WILL NEED TO BE FOLLOWED ON A
MESOSCALE BASIS THRU THE DAY AS CLOUD COVER AND PENETRATION OF
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DICTATE WHERE THE ZONE OF LIKELY INITIATION
IS.

0-6KM SHEAR DECREASES THRU THE DAY. THE BEST WINDOW FOR ORGANIZED
CELLS MAY THEREFORE BE EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH A BULK RICHARDSON
NUMBER AROUND 45 AT 18Z. BY 00Z...MULTICELLULAR DEVELOPMENT
BECOMES FAVORED WITH LESS CAPE/SHEAR BALANCE. POTENTIAL FOR ANY
WEAK TORS LOOKS TO REMAIN N OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME WHERE THE EHI
IS HIGHER.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DECLINE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE NE FLOW.

THERE IS A MDT RISK FOR RIPS AT THE OCEAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL FIZZLE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
EARLY NE WINDS TO VEER THRU THE DAY BECOMING S BY AFTERNOON. WITH
A STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...HAVE MAINTAINED THE DRY
FORECAST. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS REVEAL A BIT OF A CHALLENGE WITH
RESPECT TO TO CLOUD COVER...AS THE NAM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 3-4K FT THAN THE GFS. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR NOW BASED ON THE AMT OF SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED AND THE
NAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BIAS. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PROTRUSION OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OFFSHORE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH SW FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT. IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE RIDGE...THEN SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH FORCING OVER NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA DUE TO LEE/THERMAL DURING THE DAY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO 500-1500 J/KG OVER MOST OF THIS
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A PASSING SHORTWAVE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT
LIKELY POPS OVER FAR NW ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW 3/4 OF THE CWA.

INCREASE POPS ON SUNDAY TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT FOR SHOWERS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS - CURRENT FORECAST CAPES ARE LESS
THAN 500 J/KG - WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND THE PASSAGE
OF A 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE IN WSW FLOW ALOFT.

CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
SHORTWAVES PASSING ALOFT AND ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

ON TUESDAY HAVE COMPETITION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
(INTENSITY VARIES BETWEEN THE MODELS)...AND SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM SE CANADA. NOTING GFS IS WEAKER WITH
SHORTWAVE THAN ECMWF OR CMC - HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY OVER S ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER N ZONES.

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THINGS
DRY.

FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...

A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR HIGHS SATURDAY A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WAS BLENDED WITH A MIX OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT...NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY-TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA TODAY BRINGING A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVE THROUGH THE NYC AREA TERMINALS SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT...HOWEVER IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT
COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

STRATUS  THIS MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 800 FT AND 2000
FT. LOCAL MVFR FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE. CEILINGS BECOME VFR AFTER 15Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF STRATUS AND FOG.

WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT
WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY...THEN NORTHERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATE THIS EVENING...SPEED DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 10 KT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI...VFR. LIGHT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MORNING MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY
FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

THE SCA WAS EXTENDED ON THE OCEAN TODAY WITH SEAS IN THE 3-5FT
RANGE AND SOME GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 5FT THRESHOLD
TONIGHT...BUT IT WAS TOO MARGINAL TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS
POINT. ALL AREAS BELOW SCA LEVELS ON FRI.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
S FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
ON ALL WATERS. THIS COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT. SEAS COULD THEN REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS ON
THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. AT THIS TIME SUB-
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR LONG ISLAND SOUND/NEW YORK
HARBOR/THE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER
ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE TRI-STATE. AT THIS TIME IT
IS TOO EARLY TO SPECIFY ANY AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANY STRONGER CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST THE MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MALOIT/JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 281142
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
742 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY...PASS TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH INTO TUESDAY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG IT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. THIS HIGH THEN BUILDS DOWN INTO THE TRI-STATE FROM LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM EASTERN ME THRU THE CWA AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS
MORNING...AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
THE LIMITING FACTOR IS A LACK OF INSTABILITY...WITH ALMOST NO
SURFACE BASED CAPE...AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. AS
A RESULT HAVE AROUND A 30 POP FOR ACTIVITY THIS MORNING.

A COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER THIS AFTERNOON. MORE IMPORTANTLY...A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE ACROSS WRN NY STATE
IS ON THE DOORSTEP AT 18Z AND CLEARS THE CWA BY AROUND 3Z. BOTH
THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SUPPORT THIS TIMING AT H5. AS SURFACE BASED
CAPEINCREASES...THE WAVE SHOULD SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...PARTICULARLY WHERE CIN IS SUFFICIENTLY ERODED. ANYWHERE
FROM NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE CITY INTO INTERIOR CT AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY WILL BE IN THIS ZONE PER THE LATEST DATA. LONG
ISLAND AND ERN CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE FOR MUCH INITIATION...AND
THE FOCUS WILL LIKELY BE ON ACTIVITY SUSTAINING WITH STORM MOTION
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10KT.

AMT OF DESTABILIZATION INLAND WILL NEED TO BE FOLLOWED ON A
MESOSCALE BASIS THRU THE DAY AS CLOUD COVER AND PENETRATION OF
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DICTATE WHERE THE ZONE OF LIKELY INITIATION
IS.

0-6KM SHEAR DECREASES THRU THE DAY. THE BEST WINDOW FOR ORGANIZED
CELLS MAY THEREFORE BE EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH A BULK RICHARDSON
NUMBER AROUND 45 AT 18Z. BY 00Z...MULTICELLULAR DEVELOPMENT
BECOMES FAVORED WITH LESS CAPE/SHEAR BALANCE. POTENTIAL FOR ANY
WEAK TORS LOOKS TO REMAIN N OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME WHERE THE EHI
IS HIGHER.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DECLINE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE NE FLOW.

THERE IS A MDT RISK FOR RIPS AT THE OCEAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL FIZZLE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
EARLY NE WINDS TO VEER THRU THE DAY BECOMING S BY AFTERNOON. WITH
A STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...HAVE MAINTAINED THE DRY
FORECAST. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS REVEAL A BIT OF A CHALLENGE WITH
RESPECT TO TO CLOUD COVER...AS THE NAM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 3-4K FT THAN THE GFS. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR NOW BASED ON THE AMT OF SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED AND THE
NAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BIAS. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PROTRUSION OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OFFSHORE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH SW FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT. IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE RIDGE...THEN SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH FORCING OVER NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA DUE TO LEE/THERMAL DURING THE DAY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO 500-1500 J/KG OVER MOST OF THIS
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A PASSING SHORTWAVE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT
LIKELY POPS OVER FAR NW ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW 3/4 OF THE CWA.

INCREASE POPS ON SUNDAY TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT FOR SHOWERS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS - CURRENT FORECAST CAPES ARE LESS
THAN 500 J/KG - WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND THE PASSAGE
OF A 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE IN WSW FLOW ALOFT.

CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
SHORTWAVES PASSING ALOFT AND ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

ON TUESDAY HAVE COMPETITION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
(INTENSITY VARIES BETWEEN THE MODELS)...AND SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM SE CANADA. NOTING GFS IS WEAKER WITH
SHORTWAVE THAN ECMWF OR CMC - HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY OVER S ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER N ZONES.

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THINGS
DRY.

FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...

A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR HIGHS SATURDAY A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WAS BLENDED WITH A MIX OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT...NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY-TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA TODAY BRINGING A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVE THROUGH THE NYC AREA TERMINALS SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT...HOWEVER IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT
COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

STRATUS  THIS MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 800 FT AND 2000
FT. LOCAL MVFR FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE. CEILINGS BECOME VFR AFTER 15Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF STRATUS AND FOG.

WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT
WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY...THEN NORTHERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATE THIS EVENING...SPEED DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 10 KT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI...VFR. LIGHT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MORNING MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY
FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

THE SCA WAS EXTENDED ON THE OCEAN TODAY WITH SEAS IN THE 3-5FT
RANGE AND SOME GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 5FT THRESHOLD
TONIGHT...BUT IT WAS TOO MARGINAL TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS
POINT. ALL AREAS BELOW SCA LEVELS ON FRI.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
S FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
ON ALL WATERS. THIS COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT. SEAS COULD THEN REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS ON
THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. AT THIS TIME SUB-
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR LONG ISLAND SOUND/NEW YORK
HARBOR/THE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER
ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE TRI-STATE. AT THIS TIME IT
IS TOO EARLY TO SPECIFY ANY AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANY STRONGER CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST THE MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MALOIT/JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 281142
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
742 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY...PASS TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH INTO TUESDAY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG IT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. THIS HIGH THEN BUILDS DOWN INTO THE TRI-STATE FROM LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM EASTERN ME THRU THE CWA AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS
MORNING...AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
THE LIMITING FACTOR IS A LACK OF INSTABILITY...WITH ALMOST NO
SURFACE BASED CAPE...AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. AS
A RESULT HAVE AROUND A 30 POP FOR ACTIVITY THIS MORNING.

A COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER THIS AFTERNOON. MORE IMPORTANTLY...A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE ACROSS WRN NY STATE
IS ON THE DOORSTEP AT 18Z AND CLEARS THE CWA BY AROUND 3Z. BOTH
THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SUPPORT THIS TIMING AT H5. AS SURFACE BASED
CAPEINCREASES...THE WAVE SHOULD SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...PARTICULARLY WHERE CIN IS SUFFICIENTLY ERODED. ANYWHERE
FROM NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE CITY INTO INTERIOR CT AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY WILL BE IN THIS ZONE PER THE LATEST DATA. LONG
ISLAND AND ERN CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE FOR MUCH INITIATION...AND
THE FOCUS WILL LIKELY BE ON ACTIVITY SUSTAINING WITH STORM MOTION
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10KT.

AMT OF DESTABILIZATION INLAND WILL NEED TO BE FOLLOWED ON A
MESOSCALE BASIS THRU THE DAY AS CLOUD COVER AND PENETRATION OF
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DICTATE WHERE THE ZONE OF LIKELY INITIATION
IS.

0-6KM SHEAR DECREASES THRU THE DAY. THE BEST WINDOW FOR ORGANIZED
CELLS MAY THEREFORE BE EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH A BULK RICHARDSON
NUMBER AROUND 45 AT 18Z. BY 00Z...MULTICELLULAR DEVELOPMENT
BECOMES FAVORED WITH LESS CAPE/SHEAR BALANCE. POTENTIAL FOR ANY
WEAK TORS LOOKS TO REMAIN N OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME WHERE THE EHI
IS HIGHER.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DECLINE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE NE FLOW.

THERE IS A MDT RISK FOR RIPS AT THE OCEAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL FIZZLE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
EARLY NE WINDS TO VEER THRU THE DAY BECOMING S BY AFTERNOON. WITH
A STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...HAVE MAINTAINED THE DRY
FORECAST. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS REVEAL A BIT OF A CHALLENGE WITH
RESPECT TO TO CLOUD COVER...AS THE NAM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 3-4K FT THAN THE GFS. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR NOW BASED ON THE AMT OF SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED AND THE
NAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BIAS. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PROTRUSION OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OFFSHORE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH SW FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT. IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE RIDGE...THEN SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH FORCING OVER NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA DUE TO LEE/THERMAL DURING THE DAY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO 500-1500 J/KG OVER MOST OF THIS
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A PASSING SHORTWAVE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT
LIKELY POPS OVER FAR NW ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW 3/4 OF THE CWA.

INCREASE POPS ON SUNDAY TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT FOR SHOWERS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS - CURRENT FORECAST CAPES ARE LESS
THAN 500 J/KG - WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND THE PASSAGE
OF A 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE IN WSW FLOW ALOFT.

CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
SHORTWAVES PASSING ALOFT AND ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

ON TUESDAY HAVE COMPETITION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
(INTENSITY VARIES BETWEEN THE MODELS)...AND SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM SE CANADA. NOTING GFS IS WEAKER WITH
SHORTWAVE THAN ECMWF OR CMC - HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY OVER S ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER N ZONES.

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THINGS
DRY.

FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...

A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR HIGHS SATURDAY A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WAS BLENDED WITH A MIX OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT...NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY-TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA TODAY BRINGING A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVE THROUGH THE NYC AREA TERMINALS SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT...HOWEVER IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT
COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

STRATUS  THIS MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 800 FT AND 2000
FT. LOCAL MVFR FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE. CEILINGS BECOME VFR AFTER 15Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF STRATUS AND FOG.

WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT
WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY...THEN NORTHERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATE THIS EVENING...SPEED DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 10 KT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI...VFR. LIGHT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MORNING MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY
FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

THE SCA WAS EXTENDED ON THE OCEAN TODAY WITH SEAS IN THE 3-5FT
RANGE AND SOME GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 5FT THRESHOLD
TONIGHT...BUT IT WAS TOO MARGINAL TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS
POINT. ALL AREAS BELOW SCA LEVELS ON FRI.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
S FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
ON ALL WATERS. THIS COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT. SEAS COULD THEN REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS ON
THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. AT THIS TIME SUB-
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR LONG ISLAND SOUND/NEW YORK
HARBOR/THE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER
ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE TRI-STATE. AT THIS TIME IT
IS TOO EARLY TO SPECIFY ANY AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANY STRONGER CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST THE MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MALOIT/JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 281142
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
742 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY...PASS TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH INTO TUESDAY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG IT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. THIS HIGH THEN BUILDS DOWN INTO THE TRI-STATE FROM LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM EASTERN ME THRU THE CWA AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS
MORNING...AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
THE LIMITING FACTOR IS A LACK OF INSTABILITY...WITH ALMOST NO
SURFACE BASED CAPE...AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. AS
A RESULT HAVE AROUND A 30 POP FOR ACTIVITY THIS MORNING.

A COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER THIS AFTERNOON. MORE IMPORTANTLY...A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE ACROSS WRN NY STATE
IS ON THE DOORSTEP AT 18Z AND CLEARS THE CWA BY AROUND 3Z. BOTH
THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SUPPORT THIS TIMING AT H5. AS SURFACE BASED
CAPEINCREASES...THE WAVE SHOULD SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...PARTICULARLY WHERE CIN IS SUFFICIENTLY ERODED. ANYWHERE
FROM NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE CITY INTO INTERIOR CT AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY WILL BE IN THIS ZONE PER THE LATEST DATA. LONG
ISLAND AND ERN CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE FOR MUCH INITIATION...AND
THE FOCUS WILL LIKELY BE ON ACTIVITY SUSTAINING WITH STORM MOTION
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10KT.

AMT OF DESTABILIZATION INLAND WILL NEED TO BE FOLLOWED ON A
MESOSCALE BASIS THRU THE DAY AS CLOUD COVER AND PENETRATION OF
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DICTATE WHERE THE ZONE OF LIKELY INITIATION
IS.

0-6KM SHEAR DECREASES THRU THE DAY. THE BEST WINDOW FOR ORGANIZED
CELLS MAY THEREFORE BE EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH A BULK RICHARDSON
NUMBER AROUND 45 AT 18Z. BY 00Z...MULTICELLULAR DEVELOPMENT
BECOMES FAVORED WITH LESS CAPE/SHEAR BALANCE. POTENTIAL FOR ANY
WEAK TORS LOOKS TO REMAIN N OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME WHERE THE EHI
IS HIGHER.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DECLINE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE NE FLOW.

THERE IS A MDT RISK FOR RIPS AT THE OCEAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL FIZZLE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
EARLY NE WINDS TO VEER THRU THE DAY BECOMING S BY AFTERNOON. WITH
A STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...HAVE MAINTAINED THE DRY
FORECAST. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS REVEAL A BIT OF A CHALLENGE WITH
RESPECT TO TO CLOUD COVER...AS THE NAM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 3-4K FT THAN THE GFS. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR NOW BASED ON THE AMT OF SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED AND THE
NAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BIAS. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PROTRUSION OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OFFSHORE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH SW FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT. IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE RIDGE...THEN SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH FORCING OVER NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA DUE TO LEE/THERMAL DURING THE DAY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO 500-1500 J/KG OVER MOST OF THIS
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A PASSING SHORTWAVE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT
LIKELY POPS OVER FAR NW ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW 3/4 OF THE CWA.

INCREASE POPS ON SUNDAY TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT FOR SHOWERS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS - CURRENT FORECAST CAPES ARE LESS
THAN 500 J/KG - WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND THE PASSAGE
OF A 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE IN WSW FLOW ALOFT.

CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
SHORTWAVES PASSING ALOFT AND ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

ON TUESDAY HAVE COMPETITION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
(INTENSITY VARIES BETWEEN THE MODELS)...AND SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM SE CANADA. NOTING GFS IS WEAKER WITH
SHORTWAVE THAN ECMWF OR CMC - HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY OVER S ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER N ZONES.

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THINGS
DRY.

FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...

A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR HIGHS SATURDAY A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WAS BLENDED WITH A MIX OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT...NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY-TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA TODAY BRINGING A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVE THROUGH THE NYC AREA TERMINALS SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT...HOWEVER IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT
COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

STRATUS  THIS MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 800 FT AND 2000
FT. LOCAL MVFR FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE. CEILINGS BECOME VFR AFTER 15Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF STRATUS AND FOG.

WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT
WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY...THEN NORTHERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATE THIS EVENING...SPEED DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 10 KT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI...VFR. LIGHT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MORNING MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY
FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

THE SCA WAS EXTENDED ON THE OCEAN TODAY WITH SEAS IN THE 3-5FT
RANGE AND SOME GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 5FT THRESHOLD
TONIGHT...BUT IT WAS TOO MARGINAL TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS
POINT. ALL AREAS BELOW SCA LEVELS ON FRI.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
S FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
ON ALL WATERS. THIS COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT. SEAS COULD THEN REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS ON
THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. AT THIS TIME SUB-
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR LONG ISLAND SOUND/NEW YORK
HARBOR/THE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER
ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE TRI-STATE. AT THIS TIME IT
IS TOO EARLY TO SPECIFY ANY AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANY STRONGER CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST THE MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MALOIT/JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280825
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
425 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY...PASS TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH INTO TUESDAY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG IT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. THIS HIGH THEN BUILDS DOWN INTO THE TRI-STATE FROM LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMNANTS OF THE FIRST FRONT SHOW UP ON IR FROM ERN ME THRU THE
CWA AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME LLVL
CONVERGENCE THRU THIS MRNG...AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHWRS OR AN
ISOLD TSTM. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS A LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE
MARINE INFLUENCE RESULTS IN MINUSCULE SBCAPE INVOF THE
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER THERE IS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE.
AS A RESULT HAVE AROUND A 30 POP FOR ACTIVITY THIS MRNG.

THE SECOND FRONT DRAWS CLOSER THIS AFTN. MORE IMPORTANTLY...A MID
LVL SHRTWV SHOWING UP ON STLT ACROSS WRN NY STATE IS ON THE
DOORSTEP AT 18Z AND CLEARS THE CWA BY AROUND 3Z. BOTH THE 00Z NAM
AND GFS SUPPORT THIS TIMING AT H5. AS SBCAPE INCREASES...THE WAVE
SHOULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER...PARTICULARLY WHERE CIN IS
SUFFICIENTLY ERODED. ANYWHERE FROM NERN NJ THRU THE CITY INTO
INTERIOR CT AND THE LWR HUDSON VALLEY WILL BE IN THIS ZONE PER THE
LATEST DATA. LI AND ERN CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE FOR MUCH
INITIATION...AND THE FOCUS WILL LIKELY BE ON ACTIVITY SUSTAINING
WITH STORM MOTION SELY AROUND 10KT.

AMT OF DESTABILIZATION INLAND WILL NEED TO BE FOLLOWED ON A
MESOSCALE BASIS THRU THE DAY AS CLOUD COVER AND PENETRATION OF
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DICTATE WHERE THE ZONE OF LIKELY INITIATION
IS.

0-6KM SHEAR DECREASES THRU THE DAY. THE BEST WINDOW FOR ORGANIZED
CELLS MAY THEREFORE BE EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH A BRN AROUND 45 AT
18Z. BY 00Z...MULTICELLULAR DEVELOPMENT BECOMES FAVORED WITH LESS
CAPE/SHEAR BALANCE. POTENTIAL FOR ANY WEAK TORS LOOKS TO REMAIN N
OF THE CWA ATTM WHERE THE EHI IS HIGHER.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DECLINE TNGT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE NE FLOW.

THERE IS A MDT RISK FOR RIPS AT THE OCEAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL FIZZLE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
EARLY NE WINDS TO VEER THRU THE DAY BECOMING S BY AFTN. WITH A
STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...HAVE MAINTAINED THE DRY FCST.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS REVEAL A BIT OF A CHALLENGE WRT TO CLOUD
COVER...AS THE NAM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST
3-4K FT THAN THE GFS. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR NOW BASED
ON THE AMT OF SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED AND THE NAM LLVL MOISTURE BIAS.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PROTRUSION OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OFFSHORE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH SW FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT. IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE RIDGE...THEN SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH FORCING OVER NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA DUE TO LEE/THERMAL DURING THE DAY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO 500-1500 J/KG OVER MOST OF THIS
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A PASSING SHORTWAVE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT
LIKELY POPS OVER FAR NW ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW 3/4 OF THE CWA.

INCREASE POPS ON SUNDAY TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT FOR SHOWERS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS - CURRENT FORECAST CAPES ARE LESS
THAN 500 J/KG - WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND THE PASSAGE
OF A 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE IN WSW FLOW ALOFT.

CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
SHORTWAVES PASSING ALOFT AND ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

ON TUESDAY HAVE COMPETITION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
(INTENSITY VARIES BETWEEN THE MODELS)...AND SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM SE CANADA. NOTING GFS IS WEAKER WITH
SHORTWAVE THAN ECMWF OR CMC - HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY OVER S ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER N ZONES.

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THINGS
DRY.

FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...

A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR HIGHS SATURDAY A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WAS BLENDED WITH A MIX OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT...NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
     THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY-TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA TODAY BRINGING
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVE THROUGH THE NYC AREA TERMINALS
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT.

STRATUS DEVELOPS THIS MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 800
AND 2000 FT. LOCAL MVFR FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE. CEILINGS BECOME VFR
AFTER 15Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF STRATUS AND
FOG.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE
WIND SHIFTING TO NW TO N. VFR.
.FRI...VFR. LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA WAS EXTENDED ON THE OCEAN TODAY WITH SEAS IN THE 3-5FT
RANGE AND SOME GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN.
SEAS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 5FT THRESHOLD TNGT...BUT IT WAS TOO
MRGNL TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS POINT. ALL AREAS BLW SCA LVLS ON
FRI.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
S FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
ON ALL WATERS. THIS COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT. SEAS COULD THEN REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS ON
THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. AT THIS TIME SUB-
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR LONG ISLAND SOUND/NEW YORK
HARBOR/THE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER
ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HVY
RAIN.

IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE TRI-STATE. AT THIS TIME IT
IS TOO EARLY TO SPECIFY ANY AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANY STRONGER CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST THE MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 280825
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
425 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY...PASS TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH INTO TUESDAY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG IT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. THIS HIGH THEN BUILDS DOWN INTO THE TRI-STATE FROM LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMNANTS OF THE FIRST FRONT SHOW UP ON IR FROM ERN ME THRU THE
CWA AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME LLVL
CONVERGENCE THRU THIS MRNG...AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHWRS OR AN
ISOLD TSTM. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS A LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE
MARINE INFLUENCE RESULTS IN MINUSCULE SBCAPE INVOF THE
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER THERE IS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE.
AS A RESULT HAVE AROUND A 30 POP FOR ACTIVITY THIS MRNG.

THE SECOND FRONT DRAWS CLOSER THIS AFTN. MORE IMPORTANTLY...A MID
LVL SHRTWV SHOWING UP ON STLT ACROSS WRN NY STATE IS ON THE
DOORSTEP AT 18Z AND CLEARS THE CWA BY AROUND 3Z. BOTH THE 00Z NAM
AND GFS SUPPORT THIS TIMING AT H5. AS SBCAPE INCREASES...THE WAVE
SHOULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER...PARTICULARLY WHERE CIN IS
SUFFICIENTLY ERODED. ANYWHERE FROM NERN NJ THRU THE CITY INTO
INTERIOR CT AND THE LWR HUDSON VALLEY WILL BE IN THIS ZONE PER THE
LATEST DATA. LI AND ERN CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE FOR MUCH
INITIATION...AND THE FOCUS WILL LIKELY BE ON ACTIVITY SUSTAINING
WITH STORM MOTION SELY AROUND 10KT.

AMT OF DESTABILIZATION INLAND WILL NEED TO BE FOLLOWED ON A
MESOSCALE BASIS THRU THE DAY AS CLOUD COVER AND PENETRATION OF
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DICTATE WHERE THE ZONE OF LIKELY INITIATION
IS.

0-6KM SHEAR DECREASES THRU THE DAY. THE BEST WINDOW FOR ORGANIZED
CELLS MAY THEREFORE BE EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH A BRN AROUND 45 AT
18Z. BY 00Z...MULTICELLULAR DEVELOPMENT BECOMES FAVORED WITH LESS
CAPE/SHEAR BALANCE. POTENTIAL FOR ANY WEAK TORS LOOKS TO REMAIN N
OF THE CWA ATTM WHERE THE EHI IS HIGHER.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DECLINE TNGT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE NE FLOW.

THERE IS A MDT RISK FOR RIPS AT THE OCEAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL FIZZLE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
EARLY NE WINDS TO VEER THRU THE DAY BECOMING S BY AFTN. WITH A
STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...HAVE MAINTAINED THE DRY FCST.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS REVEAL A BIT OF A CHALLENGE WRT TO CLOUD
COVER...AS THE NAM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST
3-4K FT THAN THE GFS. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR NOW BASED
ON THE AMT OF SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED AND THE NAM LLVL MOISTURE BIAS.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PROTRUSION OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OFFSHORE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH SW FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT. IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE RIDGE...THEN SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH FORCING OVER NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA DUE TO LEE/THERMAL DURING THE DAY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO 500-1500 J/KG OVER MOST OF THIS
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A PASSING SHORTWAVE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT
LIKELY POPS OVER FAR NW ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW 3/4 OF THE CWA.

INCREASE POPS ON SUNDAY TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT FOR SHOWERS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS - CURRENT FORECAST CAPES ARE LESS
THAN 500 J/KG - WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND THE PASSAGE
OF A 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE IN WSW FLOW ALOFT.

CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
SHORTWAVES PASSING ALOFT AND ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

ON TUESDAY HAVE COMPETITION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
(INTENSITY VARIES BETWEEN THE MODELS)...AND SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM SE CANADA. NOTING GFS IS WEAKER WITH
SHORTWAVE THAN ECMWF OR CMC - HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY OVER S ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER N ZONES.

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THINGS
DRY.

FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...

A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR HIGHS SATURDAY A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WAS BLENDED WITH A MIX OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT...NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
     THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY-TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA TODAY BRINGING
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVE THROUGH THE NYC AREA TERMINALS
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT.

STRATUS DEVELOPS THIS MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 800
AND 2000 FT. LOCAL MVFR FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE. CEILINGS BECOME VFR
AFTER 15Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF STRATUS AND
FOG.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO VFR WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CIGS MOSTLY
LIKELY EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE
WIND SHIFTING TO NW TO N. VFR.
.FRI...VFR. LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA WAS EXTENDED ON THE OCEAN TODAY WITH SEAS IN THE 3-5FT
RANGE AND SOME GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN.
SEAS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 5FT THRESHOLD TNGT...BUT IT WAS TOO
MRGNL TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS POINT. ALL AREAS BLW SCA LVLS ON
FRI.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
S FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
ON ALL WATERS. THIS COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT. SEAS COULD THEN REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS ON
THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. AT THIS TIME SUB-
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR LONG ISLAND SOUND/NEW YORK
HARBOR/THE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER
ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HVY
RAIN.

IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE TRI-STATE. AT THIS TIME IT
IS TOO EARLY TO SPECIFY ANY AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANY STRONGER CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST THE MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280801
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
401 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY...PASS TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH INTO TUESDAY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG IT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. THIS HIGH THEN BUILDS DOWN INTO THE TRI-STATE FROM LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMNANTS OF THE FIRST FRONT SHOW UP ON IR FROM ERN ME THRU THE
CWA AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME LLVL
CONVERGENCE THRU THIS MRNG...AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHWRS OR AN
ISOLD TSTM. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS A LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE
MARINE INFLUENCE RESULTS IN MINUSCULE SBCAPE INVOF THE
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER THERE IS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE.
AS A RESULT HAVE AROUND A 30 POP FOR ACTIVITY THIS MRNG.

THE SECOND FRONT DRAWS CLOSER THIS AFTN. MORE IMPORTANTLY...A MID
LVL SHRTWV SHOWING UP ON STLT ACROSS WRN NY STATE IS ON THE
DOORSTEP AT 18Z AND CLEARS THE CWA BY AROUND 3Z. BOTH THE 00Z NAM
AND GFS SUPPORT THIS TIMING AT H5. AS SBCAPE INCREASES...THE WAVE
SHOULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER...PARTICULARLY WHERE CIN IS
SUFFICIENTLY ERODED. ANYWHERE FROM NERN NJ THRU THE CITY INTO
INTERIOR CT AND THE LWR HUDSON VALLEY WILL BE IN THIS ZONE PER THE
LATEST DATA. LI AND ERN CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE FOR MUCH
INITIATION...AND THE FOCUS WILL LIKELY BE ON ACTIVITY SUSTAINING
WITH STORM MOTION SELY AROUND 10KT.

AMT OF DESTABILIZATION INLAND WILL NEED TO BE FOLLOWED ON A
MESOSCALE BASIS THRU THE DAY AS CLOUD COVER AND PENETRATION OF
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DICTATE WHERE THE ZONE OF LIKELY INITIATION
IS.

0-6KM SHEAR DECREASES THRU THE DAY. THE BEST WINDOW FOR ORGANIZED
CELLS MAY THEREFORE BE EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH A BRN AROUND 45 AT
18Z. BY 00Z...MULTICELLULAR DEVELOPMENT BECOMES FAVORED WITH LESS
CAPE/SHEAR BALANCE. POTENTIAL FOR ANY WEAK TORS LOOKS TO REMAIN N
OF THE CWA ATTM WHERE THE EHI IS HIGHER.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DECLINE TNGT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE NE FLOW.

THERE IS A MDT RISK FOR RIPS AT THE OCEAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL FIZZLE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
EARLY NE WINDS TO VEER THRU THE DAY BECOMING S BY AFTN. WITH A
STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...HAVE MAINTAINED THE DRY FCST.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS REVEAL A BIT OF A CHALLENGE WRT TO CLOUD
COVER...AS THE NAM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST
3-4K FT THAN THE GFS. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR NOW BASED
ON THE AMT OF SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED AND THE NAM LLVL MOISTURE BIAS.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PROTRUSION OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OFFSHORE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH SW FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT. IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE RIDGE...THEN SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH FORCING OVER NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA DUE TO LEE/THERMAL DURING THE DAY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO 500-1500 J/KG OVER MOST OF THIS
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A PASSING SHORTWAVE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT
LIKELY POPS OVER FAR NW ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW 3/4 OF THE CWA.

INCREASE POPS ON SUNDAY TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT FOR SHOWERS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS - CURRENT FORECAST CAPES ARE LESS
THAN 500 J/KG - WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND THE PASSAGE
OF A 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE IN WSW FLOW ALOFT.

CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
SHORTWAVES PASSING ALOFT AND ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

ON TUESDAY HAVE COMPETITION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
(INTENSITY VARIES BETWEEN THE MODELS)...AND SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM SE CANADA. NOTING GFS IS WEAKER WITH
SHORTWAVE THAN ECMWF OR CMC - HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY OVER S ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER N ZONES.

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THINGS
DRY.

FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...

A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR HIGHS SATURDAY A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WAS BLENDED WITH A MIX OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT...NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
...THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY-TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVE
THROUGH THE NYC AREA TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT.

VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN MARGINAL CEILINGS IN STRATUS ARE
EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS 1000 TO 2000 FT. LOCAL MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. ANY MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS BECOME VFR AFTER 15Z
THURSDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF STRATUS AND FOG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE
WIND SHIFTING TO NW TO N. VFR.
.FRI...VFR. LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA WAS EXTENDED ON THE OCEAN TODAY WITH SEAS IN THE 3-5FT
RANGE AND SOME GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN.
SEAS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 5FT THRESHOLD TNGT...BUT IT WAS TOO
MRGNL TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS POINT. ALL AREAS BLW SCA LVLS ON
FRI.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
S FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
ON ALL WATERS. THIS COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT. SEAS COULD THEN REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS ON
THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. AT THIS TIME SUB-
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR LONG ISLAND SOUND/NEW YORK
HARBOR/THE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER
ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HVY
RAIN.

IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE TRI-STATE. AT THIS TIME IT
IS TOO EARLY TO SPECIFY ANY AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANY STRONGER CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST THE MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 280801
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
401 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY...PASS TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH INTO TUESDAY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG IT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. THIS HIGH THEN BUILDS DOWN INTO THE TRI-STATE FROM LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMNANTS OF THE FIRST FRONT SHOW UP ON IR FROM ERN ME THRU THE
CWA AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME LLVL
CONVERGENCE THRU THIS MRNG...AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHWRS OR AN
ISOLD TSTM. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS A LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE
MARINE INFLUENCE RESULTS IN MINUSCULE SBCAPE INVOF THE
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER THERE IS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE.
AS A RESULT HAVE AROUND A 30 POP FOR ACTIVITY THIS MRNG.

THE SECOND FRONT DRAWS CLOSER THIS AFTN. MORE IMPORTANTLY...A MID
LVL SHRTWV SHOWING UP ON STLT ACROSS WRN NY STATE IS ON THE
DOORSTEP AT 18Z AND CLEARS THE CWA BY AROUND 3Z. BOTH THE 00Z NAM
AND GFS SUPPORT THIS TIMING AT H5. AS SBCAPE INCREASES...THE WAVE
SHOULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER...PARTICULARLY WHERE CIN IS
SUFFICIENTLY ERODED. ANYWHERE FROM NERN NJ THRU THE CITY INTO
INTERIOR CT AND THE LWR HUDSON VALLEY WILL BE IN THIS ZONE PER THE
LATEST DATA. LI AND ERN CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE FOR MUCH
INITIATION...AND THE FOCUS WILL LIKELY BE ON ACTIVITY SUSTAINING
WITH STORM MOTION SELY AROUND 10KT.

AMT OF DESTABILIZATION INLAND WILL NEED TO BE FOLLOWED ON A
MESOSCALE BASIS THRU THE DAY AS CLOUD COVER AND PENETRATION OF
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DICTATE WHERE THE ZONE OF LIKELY INITIATION
IS.

0-6KM SHEAR DECREASES THRU THE DAY. THE BEST WINDOW FOR ORGANIZED
CELLS MAY THEREFORE BE EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH A BRN AROUND 45 AT
18Z. BY 00Z...MULTICELLULAR DEVELOPMENT BECOMES FAVORED WITH LESS
CAPE/SHEAR BALANCE. POTENTIAL FOR ANY WEAK TORS LOOKS TO REMAIN N
OF THE CWA ATTM WHERE THE EHI IS HIGHER.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DECLINE TNGT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE NE FLOW.

THERE IS A MDT RISK FOR RIPS AT THE OCEAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL FIZZLE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
EARLY NE WINDS TO VEER THRU THE DAY BECOMING S BY AFTN. WITH A
STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...HAVE MAINTAINED THE DRY FCST.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS REVEAL A BIT OF A CHALLENGE WRT TO CLOUD
COVER...AS THE NAM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST
3-4K FT THAN THE GFS. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR NOW BASED
ON THE AMT OF SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED AND THE NAM LLVL MOISTURE BIAS.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PROTRUSION OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OFFSHORE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH SW FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT. IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE RIDGE...THEN SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH FORCING OVER NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA DUE TO LEE/THERMAL DURING THE DAY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO 500-1500 J/KG OVER MOST OF THIS
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A PASSING SHORTWAVE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT
LIKELY POPS OVER FAR NW ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW 3/4 OF THE CWA.

INCREASE POPS ON SUNDAY TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT FOR SHOWERS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS - CURRENT FORECAST CAPES ARE LESS
THAN 500 J/KG - WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND THE PASSAGE
OF A 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE IN WSW FLOW ALOFT.

CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
SHORTWAVES PASSING ALOFT AND ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

ON TUESDAY HAVE COMPETITION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
(INTENSITY VARIES BETWEEN THE MODELS)...AND SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM SE CANADA. NOTING GFS IS WEAKER WITH
SHORTWAVE THAN ECMWF OR CMC - HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY OVER S ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER N ZONES.

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THINGS
DRY.

FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...

A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR HIGHS SATURDAY A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WAS BLENDED WITH A MIX OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT...NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
...THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY-TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVE
THROUGH THE NYC AREA TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT.

VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN MARGINAL CEILINGS IN STRATUS ARE
EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS 1000 TO 2000 FT. LOCAL MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. ANY MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS BECOME VFR AFTER 15Z
THURSDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF STRATUS AND FOG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE
WIND SHIFTING TO NW TO N. VFR.
.FRI...VFR. LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA WAS EXTENDED ON THE OCEAN TODAY WITH SEAS IN THE 3-5FT
RANGE AND SOME GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN.
SEAS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 5FT THRESHOLD TNGT...BUT IT WAS TOO
MRGNL TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS POINT. ALL AREAS BLW SCA LVLS ON
FRI.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
S FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
ON ALL WATERS. THIS COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT. SEAS COULD THEN REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS ON
THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. AT THIS TIME SUB-
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR LONG ISLAND SOUND/NEW YORK
HARBOR/THE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER
ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HVY
RAIN.

IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE TRI-STATE. AT THIS TIME IT
IS TOO EARLY TO SPECIFY ANY AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANY STRONGER CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST THE MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280535
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
135 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY...QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL
NEARBY FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS HAVE ENDED. REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
TIL TODAY. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THE
SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT OCCURRED THIS EVENING...AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. WILL INCLUDE THE PATCHY FOG FOR THE
INTERIOR DUE TO THE RAINFALL AS WELL AS FOR COASTAL AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPS IN/AROUND NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHER FROM NYC AND
AREAS JUST NORTH/WEST.

WITH LESS MLCAPE...500-1000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

HIGHS ON THU SHOULD BE IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S NEAR THE
COAST...MAINLY PER WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE NJ APPROACHED 90. DEWPOINTS
ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
60S IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS WELL
NORTH/WEST OF NYC.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING TREND RESUMES ALOFT WITH JET STREAM WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE AND
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SAME PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN THE JET PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE BROAD SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGING RESUMES BY MID NEXT WEEK WITH JET STREAM ONCE
AGAIN MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES QUICKLY
SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL LESSEN WITH TIME AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED
TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY DEEPENING WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENS MORE WITHIN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING WITHIN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE TUESDAY FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT ONCE AGAIN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED QUICKLY
OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL REGIONS. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS MOISTURE AS VERY LIGHT
QPF. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST REGION WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE AIR MASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM BUT A LITTLE COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
THE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NEAR NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY...AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AS WELL AS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MID NEXT WEEK. LOWS AT NIGHT OVERALL ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVE
THROUGH THE NYC AREA TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT.

VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN MARGINAL CEILINGS IN STRATUS ARE
EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS 1000 TO 2000 FT. LOCAL MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. ANY MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS BECOME VFR AFTER 15Z
THURSDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF STRATUS AND FOG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE
WIND SHIFTING TO NW TO N. VFR.
.FRI...VFR. LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT...AND TO 5-10 KT ON ALL OTHER WATERS. OCEAN SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD TO 5 FT...AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH 11 AM
THURSDAY. OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ON THE
OCEAN WATERS...BUT MOST GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 20 KT.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONDS FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FETCH COULD BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT
SATURDAY...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...EVEN
AS WINDS SWITCH TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON THURSDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH
OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND
10 KT AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY NEAR 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CT. THIS COULD RESULT IN
THE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF IT
OCCURS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH PW FORECAST TO REACH UP TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL AS WELL FOR AN EXTENDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING NEARBY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MPS/JMC
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280535
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
135 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY...QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL
NEARBY FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS HAVE ENDED. REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
TIL TODAY. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THE
SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT OCCURRED THIS EVENING...AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. WILL INCLUDE THE PATCHY FOG FOR THE
INTERIOR DUE TO THE RAINFALL AS WELL AS FOR COASTAL AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPS IN/AROUND NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHER FROM NYC AND
AREAS JUST NORTH/WEST.

WITH LESS MLCAPE...500-1000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

HIGHS ON THU SHOULD BE IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S NEAR THE
COAST...MAINLY PER WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE NJ APPROACHED 90. DEWPOINTS
ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
60S IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS WELL
NORTH/WEST OF NYC.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING TREND RESUMES ALOFT WITH JET STREAM WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE AND
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SAME PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN THE JET PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE BROAD SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGING RESUMES BY MID NEXT WEEK WITH JET STREAM ONCE
AGAIN MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES QUICKLY
SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL LESSEN WITH TIME AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED
TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY DEEPENING WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENS MORE WITHIN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING WITHIN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE TUESDAY FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT ONCE AGAIN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED QUICKLY
OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL REGIONS. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS MOISTURE AS VERY LIGHT
QPF. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST REGION WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE AIR MASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM BUT A LITTLE COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
THE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NEAR NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY...AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AS WELL AS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MID NEXT WEEK. LOWS AT NIGHT OVERALL ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVE
THROUGH THE NYC AREA TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT.

VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN MARGINAL CEILINGS IN STRATUS ARE
EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS 1000 TO 2000 FT. LOCAL MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. ANY MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS BECOME VFR AFTER 15Z
THURSDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF STRATUS AND FOG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE
WIND SHIFTING TO NW TO N. VFR.
.FRI...VFR. LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT...AND TO 5-10 KT ON ALL OTHER WATERS. OCEAN SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD TO 5 FT...AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH 11 AM
THURSDAY. OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ON THE
OCEAN WATERS...BUT MOST GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 20 KT.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONDS FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FETCH COULD BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT
SATURDAY...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...EVEN
AS WINDS SWITCH TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON THURSDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH
OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND
10 KT AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY NEAR 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CT. THIS COULD RESULT IN
THE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF IT
OCCURS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH PW FORECAST TO REACH UP TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL AS WELL FOR AN EXTENDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING NEARBY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MPS/JMC
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM





000
FXUS61 KOKX 280254
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1054 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY...QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL
NEARBY FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA HAVE ENDED...AND
SOME SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...INTO NYC...AND INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NJ
WILL TRACK EAST AND DISSIPATE GOING THROUGH THE EVENING. BY
MIDNIGHT...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF.

WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THE SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT
OCCURRED THIS EVENING...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP. WILL INCLUDE THE PATCHY FOG FOR THE INTERIOR DUE TO THE
RAINFALL AS WELL AS FOR COASTAL AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPS IN/AROUND NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHER FROM NYC AND
AREAS JUST NORTH/WEST.

WITH LESS MLCAPE...500-1000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

HIGHS ON THU SHOULD BE IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S NEAR THE
COAST...MAINLY PER WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE NJ APPROACHED 90. DEWPOINTS
ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
60S IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS WELL
NORTH/WEST OF NYC.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING TREND RESUMES ALOFT WITH JET STREAM WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE AND
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SAME PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN THE JET PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE BROAD SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGING RESUMES BY MID NEXT WEEK WITH JET STREAM ONCE
AGAIN MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES QUICKLY
SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL LESSEN WITH TIME AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED
TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY DEEPENING WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENS MORE WITHIN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING WITHIN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE TUESDAY FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT ONCE AGAIN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED QUICKLY
OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL REGIONS. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS MOISTURE AS VERY LIGHT
QPF. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST REGION WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE AIR MASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM BUT A LITTLE COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
THE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NEAR NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY...AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AS WELL AS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MID NEXT WEEK. LOWS AT NIGHT OVERALL ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE A LOW
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
BRINGING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE NYC AREA TERMINALS RIGHT
AROUND 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT.

VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN MARGINAL CEILINGS IN STRATUS ARE
EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS 1000 TO 2000 FT. LOCAL MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. ANY MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS BECOME VFR AFTER 15Z
THURSDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF STRATUS AND FOG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE
WIND SHIFTING TO NW TO N. VFR.
.FRI...VFR. LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT...AND TO 5-10 KT ON ALL OTHER WATERS. OCEAN SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD TO 5 FT...AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH 11 AM
THURSDAY. OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ON THE
OCEAN WATERS...BUT MOST GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 20 KT.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LAE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONDS FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FETCH COULD BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT
SATURDAY...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...EVEN
AS WINDS SWITCH TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON THURSDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH
OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND
10 KT AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY NEAR 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CT. THIS COULD RESULT IN
THE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF IT
OCCURS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH PW FORECAST TO REACH UP TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL AS WELL FOR AN EXTENDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING NEARBY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280254
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1054 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY...QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL
NEARBY FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA HAVE ENDED...AND
SOME SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...INTO NYC...AND INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NJ
WILL TRACK EAST AND DISSIPATE GOING THROUGH THE EVENING. BY
MIDNIGHT...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF.

WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THE SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT
OCCURRED THIS EVENING...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP. WILL INCLUDE THE PATCHY FOG FOR THE INTERIOR DUE TO THE
RAINFALL AS WELL AS FOR COASTAL AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPS IN/AROUND NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHER FROM NYC AND
AREAS JUST NORTH/WEST.

WITH LESS MLCAPE...500-1000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

HIGHS ON THU SHOULD BE IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S NEAR THE
COAST...MAINLY PER WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE NJ APPROACHED 90. DEWPOINTS
ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
60S IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS WELL
NORTH/WEST OF NYC.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING TREND RESUMES ALOFT WITH JET STREAM WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE AND
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SAME PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN THE JET PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE BROAD SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGING RESUMES BY MID NEXT WEEK WITH JET STREAM ONCE
AGAIN MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES QUICKLY
SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL LESSEN WITH TIME AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED
TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY DEEPENING WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENS MORE WITHIN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING WITHIN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE TUESDAY FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT ONCE AGAIN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED QUICKLY
OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL REGIONS. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS MOISTURE AS VERY LIGHT
QPF. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST REGION WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE AIR MASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM BUT A LITTLE COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
THE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NEAR NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY...AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AS WELL AS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MID NEXT WEEK. LOWS AT NIGHT OVERALL ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE A LOW
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
BRINGING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE NYC AREA TERMINALS RIGHT
AROUND 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT.

VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN MARGINAL CEILINGS IN STRATUS ARE
EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS 1000 TO 2000 FT. LOCAL MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. ANY MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS BECOME VFR AFTER 15Z
THURSDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF STRATUS AND FOG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE
WIND SHIFTING TO NW TO N. VFR.
.FRI...VFR. LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT...AND TO 5-10 KT ON ALL OTHER WATERS. OCEAN SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD TO 5 FT...AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH 11 AM
THURSDAY. OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ON THE
OCEAN WATERS...BUT MOST GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 20 KT.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LAE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONDS FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FETCH COULD BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT
SATURDAY...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...EVEN
AS WINDS SWITCH TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON THURSDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH
OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND
10 KT AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY NEAR 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CT. THIS COULD RESULT IN
THE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF IT
OCCURS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH PW FORECAST TO REACH UP TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL AS WELL FOR AN EXTENDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING NEARBY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM





000
FXUS61 KOKX 280114
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
914 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY...QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL
NEARBY FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA HAVE ENDED...AND
SOME SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...INTO NYC...AND INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NJ
WILL TRACK EAST AND DISSIPATE GOING THROUGH THE EVENING. BY
MIDNIGHT...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF.

WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THE SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT
OCCURRED THIS EVENING...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP. WILL INCLUDE THE PATCHY FOG FOR THE INTERIOR DUE TO THE
RAINFALL AS WELL AS FOR COASTAL AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPS IN/AROUND NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHER FROM NYC AND
AREAS JUST NORTH/WEST.

WITH LESS MLCAPE...500-1000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

HIGHS ON THU SHOULD BE IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S NEAR THE
COAST...MAINLY PER WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE NJ APPROACHED 90. DEWPOINTS
ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
60S IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS WELL
NORTH/WEST OF NYC.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING TREND RESUMES ALOFT WITH JET STREAM WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE AND
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SAME PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN THE JET PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE BROAD SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGING RESUMES BY MID NEXT WEEK WITH JET STREAM ONCE
AGAIN MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES QUICKLY
SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL LESSEN WITH TIME AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED
TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY DEEPENING WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENS MORE WITHIN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING WITHIN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE TUESDAY FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT ONCE AGAIN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED QUICKLY
OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL REGIONS. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS MOISTURE AS VERY LIGHT
QPF. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST REGION WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE AIR MASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM BUT A LITTLE COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
THE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NEAR NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY...AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AS WELL AS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MID NEXT WEEK. LOWS AT NIGHT OVERALL ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE A LOW
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
BRINGING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE NYC AREA TERMINALS RIGHT
AROUND 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT.

AT 00Z THURSDAY A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE NYC AREA TERMINALS AND WILL
WEAKEN AS THE LINE MOVES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LOCAL
AND BRIEF MARGINAL CEILINGS WITH THE SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN MARGINAL CEILINGS IN STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS 1000 TO 2000 FT. LOCAL MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE STRATUS MOVING IN...LOW CONFIDENCE
IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANY MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS BECOME VFR AFTER 15Z
THURSDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL AROUND 01Z.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT END QUICKLY AROUND 03Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1200 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND COULD BE A HOUR OR
SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST...THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL AROUND 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1300 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND COULD BE A COUPLE
OF HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST...THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING.
LOW CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL BY 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1300 FT DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE...AND COULD BE A
COUPLE OF HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST...THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. LOW CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL BY 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1500 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLE COULD BE
NEARER TO 06Z. MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
LIKELY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL BY 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLE COULD BE
NEARER TO 06Z. MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
LIKELY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME STRATUS AROUND 1200 FT REMAINS THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER 0030Z TO 0130Z WITH
MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS. IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE CEILINGS WILL BE MARGINAL VFR WITH A IFR CEILINGS
FOR A WHILE TOWARD SUNRISE. MARGINAL CEILINGS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF CEILINGS AND
TIMING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE
WIND SHIFTING TO NW TO N. VFR.
.FRI...VFR. LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT...AND TO 5-10 KT ON ALL OTHER WATERS. OCEAN SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD TO 5 FT...AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH 11 AM
THURSDAY. OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ON THE
OCEAN WATERS...BUT MOST GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 20 KT.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LAE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONDS FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FETCH COULD BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT
SATURDAY...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...EVEN
AS WINDS SWITCH TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON THURSDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH
OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND
10 KT AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY NEAR 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CT. THIS COULD RESULT IN
THE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF IT
OCCURS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH PW FORECAST TO REACH UP TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL AS WELL FOR AN EXTENDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING NEARBY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280114
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
914 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY...QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL
NEARBY FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA HAVE ENDED...AND
SOME SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...INTO NYC...AND INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NJ
WILL TRACK EAST AND DISSIPATE GOING THROUGH THE EVENING. BY
MIDNIGHT...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF.

WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THE SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT
OCCURRED THIS EVENING...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP. WILL INCLUDE THE PATCHY FOG FOR THE INTERIOR DUE TO THE
RAINFALL AS WELL AS FOR COASTAL AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPS IN/AROUND NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHER FROM NYC AND
AREAS JUST NORTH/WEST.

WITH LESS MLCAPE...500-1000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

HIGHS ON THU SHOULD BE IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S NEAR THE
COAST...MAINLY PER WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE NJ APPROACHED 90. DEWPOINTS
ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
60S IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS WELL
NORTH/WEST OF NYC.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING TREND RESUMES ALOFT WITH JET STREAM WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE AND
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SAME PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN THE JET PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE BROAD SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGING RESUMES BY MID NEXT WEEK WITH JET STREAM ONCE
AGAIN MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES QUICKLY
SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL LESSEN WITH TIME AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED
TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY DEEPENING WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENS MORE WITHIN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING WITHIN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE TUESDAY FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT ONCE AGAIN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED QUICKLY
OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL REGIONS. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS MOISTURE AS VERY LIGHT
QPF. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST REGION WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE AIR MASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM BUT A LITTLE COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
THE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NEAR NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY...AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AS WELL AS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MID NEXT WEEK. LOWS AT NIGHT OVERALL ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE A LOW
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
BRINGING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE NYC AREA TERMINALS RIGHT
AROUND 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT.

AT 00Z THURSDAY A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE NYC AREA TERMINALS AND WILL
WEAKEN AS THE LINE MOVES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LOCAL
AND BRIEF MARGINAL CEILINGS WITH THE SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN MARGINAL CEILINGS IN STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS 1000 TO 2000 FT. LOCAL MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE STRATUS MOVING IN...LOW CONFIDENCE
IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANY MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS BECOME VFR AFTER 15Z
THURSDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL AROUND 01Z.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT END QUICKLY AROUND 03Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1200 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND COULD BE A HOUR OR
SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST...THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL AROUND 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1300 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND COULD BE A COUPLE
OF HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST...THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING.
LOW CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL BY 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1300 FT DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE...AND COULD BE A
COUPLE OF HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST...THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. LOW CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL BY 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1500 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLE COULD BE
NEARER TO 06Z. MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
LIKELY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL BY 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLE COULD BE
NEARER TO 06Z. MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
LIKELY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME STRATUS AROUND 1200 FT REMAINS THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER 0030Z TO 0130Z WITH
MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS. IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE CEILINGS WILL BE MARGINAL VFR WITH A IFR CEILINGS
FOR A WHILE TOWARD SUNRISE. MARGINAL CEILINGS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF CEILINGS AND
TIMING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE
WIND SHIFTING TO NW TO N. VFR.
.FRI...VFR. LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT...AND TO 5-10 KT ON ALL OTHER WATERS. OCEAN SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD TO 5 FT...AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH 11 AM
THURSDAY. OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ON THE
OCEAN WATERS...BUT MOST GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 20 KT.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LAE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONDS FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FETCH COULD BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT
SATURDAY...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...EVEN
AS WINDS SWITCH TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON THURSDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH
OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND
10 KT AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY NEAR 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CT. THIS COULD RESULT IN
THE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF IT
OCCURS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH PW FORECAST TO REACH UP TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL AS WELL FOR AN EXTENDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING NEARBY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM





000
FXUS61 KOKX 280114
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
914 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY...QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL
NEARBY FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA HAVE ENDED...AND
SOME SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...INTO NYC...AND INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NJ
WILL TRACK EAST AND DISSIPATE GOING THROUGH THE EVENING. BY
MIDNIGHT...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF.

WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THE SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT
OCCURRED THIS EVENING...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP. WILL INCLUDE THE PATCHY FOG FOR THE INTERIOR DUE TO THE
RAINFALL AS WELL AS FOR COASTAL AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPS IN/AROUND NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHER FROM NYC AND
AREAS JUST NORTH/WEST.

WITH LESS MLCAPE...500-1000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

HIGHS ON THU SHOULD BE IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S NEAR THE
COAST...MAINLY PER WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE NJ APPROACHED 90. DEWPOINTS
ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
60S IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS WELL
NORTH/WEST OF NYC.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING TREND RESUMES ALOFT WITH JET STREAM WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE AND
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SAME PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN THE JET PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE BROAD SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGING RESUMES BY MID NEXT WEEK WITH JET STREAM ONCE
AGAIN MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES QUICKLY
SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL LESSEN WITH TIME AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED
TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY DEEPENING WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENS MORE WITHIN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING WITHIN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE TUESDAY FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT ONCE AGAIN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED QUICKLY
OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL REGIONS. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS MOISTURE AS VERY LIGHT
QPF. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST REGION WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE AIR MASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM BUT A LITTLE COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
THE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NEAR NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY...AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AS WELL AS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MID NEXT WEEK. LOWS AT NIGHT OVERALL ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE A LOW
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
BRINGING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE NYC AREA TERMINALS RIGHT
AROUND 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT.

AT 00Z THURSDAY A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE NYC AREA TERMINALS AND WILL
WEAKEN AS THE LINE MOVES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LOCAL
AND BRIEF MARGINAL CEILINGS WITH THE SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN MARGINAL CEILINGS IN STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS 1000 TO 2000 FT. LOCAL MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE STRATUS MOVING IN...LOW CONFIDENCE
IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANY MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS BECOME VFR AFTER 15Z
THURSDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL AROUND 01Z.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT END QUICKLY AROUND 03Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1200 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND COULD BE A HOUR OR
SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST...THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL AROUND 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1300 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND COULD BE A COUPLE
OF HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST...THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING.
LOW CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL BY 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1300 FT DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE...AND COULD BE A
COUPLE OF HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST...THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. LOW CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL BY 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1500 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLE COULD BE
NEARER TO 06Z. MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
LIKELY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL BY 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLE COULD BE
NEARER TO 06Z. MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
LIKELY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME STRATUS AROUND 1200 FT REMAINS THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER 0030Z TO 0130Z WITH
MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS. IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE CEILINGS WILL BE MARGINAL VFR WITH A IFR CEILINGS
FOR A WHILE TOWARD SUNRISE. MARGINAL CEILINGS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF CEILINGS AND
TIMING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE
WIND SHIFTING TO NW TO N. VFR.
.FRI...VFR. LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT...AND TO 5-10 KT ON ALL OTHER WATERS. OCEAN SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD TO 5 FT...AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH 11 AM
THURSDAY. OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ON THE
OCEAN WATERS...BUT MOST GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 20 KT.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LAE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONDS FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FETCH COULD BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT
SATURDAY...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...EVEN
AS WINDS SWITCH TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON THURSDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH
OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND
10 KT AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY NEAR 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CT. THIS COULD RESULT IN
THE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF IT
OCCURS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH PW FORECAST TO REACH UP TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL AS WELL FOR AN EXTENDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING NEARBY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM





000
FXUS61 KOKX 280114
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
914 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY...QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL
NEARBY FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA HAVE ENDED...AND
SOME SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...INTO NYC...AND INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NJ
WILL TRACK EAST AND DISSIPATE GOING THROUGH THE EVENING. BY
MIDNIGHT...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF.

WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THE SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT
OCCURRED THIS EVENING...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP. WILL INCLUDE THE PATCHY FOG FOR THE INTERIOR DUE TO THE
RAINFALL AS WELL AS FOR COASTAL AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPS IN/AROUND NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHER FROM NYC AND
AREAS JUST NORTH/WEST.

WITH LESS MLCAPE...500-1000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

HIGHS ON THU SHOULD BE IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S NEAR THE
COAST...MAINLY PER WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE NJ APPROACHED 90. DEWPOINTS
ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
60S IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS WELL
NORTH/WEST OF NYC.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING TREND RESUMES ALOFT WITH JET STREAM WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE AND
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SAME PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN THE JET PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE BROAD SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGING RESUMES BY MID NEXT WEEK WITH JET STREAM ONCE
AGAIN MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES QUICKLY
SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL LESSEN WITH TIME AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED
TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY DEEPENING WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENS MORE WITHIN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING WITHIN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE TUESDAY FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT ONCE AGAIN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED QUICKLY
OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL REGIONS. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS MOISTURE AS VERY LIGHT
QPF. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST REGION WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE AIR MASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM BUT A LITTLE COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
THE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NEAR NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY...AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AS WELL AS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MID NEXT WEEK. LOWS AT NIGHT OVERALL ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE A LOW
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
BRINGING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE NYC AREA TERMINALS RIGHT
AROUND 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT.

AT 00Z THURSDAY A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE NYC AREA TERMINALS AND WILL
WEAKEN AS THE LINE MOVES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LOCAL
AND BRIEF MARGINAL CEILINGS WITH THE SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN MARGINAL CEILINGS IN STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS 1000 TO 2000 FT. LOCAL MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE STRATUS MOVING IN...LOW CONFIDENCE
IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANY MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS BECOME VFR AFTER 15Z
THURSDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL AROUND 01Z.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT END QUICKLY AROUND 03Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1200 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND COULD BE A HOUR OR
SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST...THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL AROUND 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1300 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND COULD BE A COUPLE
OF HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST...THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING.
LOW CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL BY 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1300 FT DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE...AND COULD BE A
COUPLE OF HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST...THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. LOW CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL BY 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1500 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLE COULD BE
NEARER TO 06Z. MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
LIKELY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL BY 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLE COULD BE
NEARER TO 06Z. MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
LIKELY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME STRATUS AROUND 1200 FT REMAINS THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER 0030Z TO 0130Z WITH
MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS. IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE CEILINGS WILL BE MARGINAL VFR WITH A IFR CEILINGS
FOR A WHILE TOWARD SUNRISE. MARGINAL CEILINGS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF CEILINGS AND
TIMING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE
WIND SHIFTING TO NW TO N. VFR.
.FRI...VFR. LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT...AND TO 5-10 KT ON ALL OTHER WATERS. OCEAN SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD TO 5 FT...AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH 11 AM
THURSDAY. OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ON THE
OCEAN WATERS...BUT MOST GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 20 KT.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LAE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONDS FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FETCH COULD BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT
SATURDAY...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...EVEN
AS WINDS SWITCH TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON THURSDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH
OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND
10 KT AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY NEAR 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CT. THIS COULD RESULT IN
THE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF IT
OCCURS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH PW FORECAST TO REACH UP TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL AS WELL FOR AN EXTENDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING NEARBY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280001
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
801 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY...QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL
NEARBY FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA NOT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CT. STORMS HAVE
DISSIPATED AROUND NYC...AND ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO
NE NJ. WITH STABLE...MARINE AIRMASS OVER LONG ISLAND/NYC/COASTAL
CT...NOT EXPECTING MANY STORMS TO SURVIVE OR DEVELOP IN THAT
ATMOSPHERE.

WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WESTERN CT...THROUGH NYC...AND INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE NJ FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING...AND
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. NOT EXPECTING TOO MANY SEVERE STORMS...SO WILL ALLOW SVR
TSTM WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM.

SHOULD BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT NORTH/WEST OF
NYC WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FALLS. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHER FROM NYC AND
AREAS JUST NORTH/WEST.

WITH LESS MLCAPE...500-1000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

HIGHS ON THU SHOULD BE IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S NEAR THE
COAST...MAINLY PER WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE NJ APPROACHED 90. DEWPOINTS
ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
60S IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS WELL
NORTH/WEST OF NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING TREND RESUMES ALOFT WITH JET STREAM WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE AND
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SAME PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN THE JET PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE BROAD SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGING RESUMES BY MID NEXT WEEK WITH JET STREAM ONCE
AGAIN MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES QUICKLY
SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL LESSEN WITH TIME AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED
TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY DEEPENING WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENS MORE WITHIN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING WITHIN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE TUESDAY FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT ONCE AGAIN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED QUICKLY
OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL REGIONS. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS MOISTURE AS VERY LIGHT
QPF. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST REGION WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE AIR MASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM BUT A LITTLE COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
THE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NEAR NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY...AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AS WELL AS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MID NEXT WEEK. LOWS AT NIGHT OVERALL ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE A LOW
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
BRINGING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE NYC AREA TERMINALS RIGHT
AROUND 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT.

AT 00Z THURSDAY A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE NYC AREA TERMINALS AND WILL
WEAKEN AS THE LINE MOVES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LOCAL
AND BRIEF MARGINAL CEILINGS WITH THE SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN MARGINAL CEILINGS IN STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS 1000 TO 2000 FT. LOCAL MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE STRATUS MOVING IN...LOW CONFIDENCE
IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANY MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS BECOME VFR AFTER 15Z
THURSDAY.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL AROUND 01Z.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT END QUICKLY AROUND 03Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1200 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND COULD BE A HOUR OR
SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST...THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL AROUND 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1300 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND COULD BE A COUPLE
OF HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST...THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING.
LOW CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL BY 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1300 FT DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE...AND COULD BE A
COUPLE OF HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST...THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. LOW CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL BY 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1500 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLE COULD BE
NEARER TO 06Z. MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
LIKELY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL BY 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLE COULD BE
NEARER TO 06Z. MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
LIKELY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME STRATUS AROUND 1200 FT REMAINS THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER 0030Z TO 0130Z WITH
MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS. IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE CEILINGS WILL BE MARGINAL VFR WITH A IFR CEILINGS
FOR A WHILE TOWARD SUNRISE. MARGINAL CEILINGS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF CEILINGS AND
TIMING.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE
WIND SHIFTING TO NW TO N. VFR.
.FRI...VFR. LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EAST OF SANDY HOOK WITH USUAL LATE DAY/EVENING
SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. NY HARBOR AND WRN LONG ISLAND
SOUND COULD EXPERIENCE EITHER DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS OR A GUST FRONT
FROM WEAKENING INLAND STORMS TOWARD EVENING.

PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FETCH COULD BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT
SATURDAY...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...EVEN
AS WINDS SWITCH TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOTING PRECIP EFFICIENCY OF JUST OVER 1.5
INCH AND CORFIDI VECTORS 10 KT OR LESS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING OF CELLS THAT COULD LEAD TO RAINFALL OF 1-2
INCHES...WITH MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY NEAR 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CT. THIS COULD RESULT IN
THE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF
IT OCCURS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH PW FORECAST TO REACH UP TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL AS WELL FOR AN EXTENDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING NEARBY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280001
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
801 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY...QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL
NEARBY FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA NOT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CT. STORMS HAVE
DISSIPATED AROUND NYC...AND ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO
NE NJ. WITH STABLE...MARINE AIRMASS OVER LONG ISLAND/NYC/COASTAL
CT...NOT EXPECTING MANY STORMS TO SURVIVE OR DEVELOP IN THAT
ATMOSPHERE.

WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WESTERN CT...THROUGH NYC...AND INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE NJ FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING...AND
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. NOT EXPECTING TOO MANY SEVERE STORMS...SO WILL ALLOW SVR
TSTM WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM.

SHOULD BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT NORTH/WEST OF
NYC WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FALLS. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHER FROM NYC AND
AREAS JUST NORTH/WEST.

WITH LESS MLCAPE...500-1000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

HIGHS ON THU SHOULD BE IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S NEAR THE
COAST...MAINLY PER WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE NJ APPROACHED 90. DEWPOINTS
ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
60S IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS WELL
NORTH/WEST OF NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING TREND RESUMES ALOFT WITH JET STREAM WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE AND
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SAME PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN THE JET PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE BROAD SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGING RESUMES BY MID NEXT WEEK WITH JET STREAM ONCE
AGAIN MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES QUICKLY
SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL LESSEN WITH TIME AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED
TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY DEEPENING WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENS MORE WITHIN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING WITHIN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE TUESDAY FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT ONCE AGAIN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED QUICKLY
OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL REGIONS. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS MOISTURE AS VERY LIGHT
QPF. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST REGION WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE AIR MASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM BUT A LITTLE COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
THE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NEAR NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY...AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AS WELL AS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MID NEXT WEEK. LOWS AT NIGHT OVERALL ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE A LOW
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
BRINGING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE NYC AREA TERMINALS RIGHT
AROUND 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT.

AT 00Z THURSDAY A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE NYC AREA TERMINALS AND WILL
WEAKEN AS THE LINE MOVES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LOCAL
AND BRIEF MARGINAL CEILINGS WITH THE SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN MARGINAL CEILINGS IN STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS 1000 TO 2000 FT. LOCAL MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE STRATUS MOVING IN...LOW CONFIDENCE
IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANY MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS BECOME VFR AFTER 15Z
THURSDAY.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL AROUND 01Z.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT END QUICKLY AROUND 03Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1200 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND COULD BE A HOUR OR
SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST...THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL AROUND 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1300 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND COULD BE A COUPLE
OF HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST...THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING.
LOW CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL BY 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1300 FT DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE...AND COULD BE A
COUPLE OF HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST...THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. LOW CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL BY 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1500 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLE COULD BE
NEARER TO 06Z. MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
LIKELY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL BY 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLE COULD BE
NEARER TO 06Z. MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
LIKELY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME STRATUS AROUND 1200 FT REMAINS THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER 0030Z TO 0130Z WITH
MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS. IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE CEILINGS WILL BE MARGINAL VFR WITH A IFR CEILINGS
FOR A WHILE TOWARD SUNRISE. MARGINAL CEILINGS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF CEILINGS AND
TIMING.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE
WIND SHIFTING TO NW TO N. VFR.
.FRI...VFR. LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EAST OF SANDY HOOK WITH USUAL LATE DAY/EVENING
SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. NY HARBOR AND WRN LONG ISLAND
SOUND COULD EXPERIENCE EITHER DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS OR A GUST FRONT
FROM WEAKENING INLAND STORMS TOWARD EVENING.

PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FETCH COULD BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT
SATURDAY...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...EVEN
AS WINDS SWITCH TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOTING PRECIP EFFICIENCY OF JUST OVER 1.5
INCH AND CORFIDI VECTORS 10 KT OR LESS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING OF CELLS THAT COULD LEAD TO RAINFALL OF 1-2
INCHES...WITH MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY NEAR 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CT. THIS COULD RESULT IN
THE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF
IT OCCURS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH PW FORECAST TO REACH UP TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL AS WELL FOR AN EXTENDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING NEARBY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM





000
FXUS61 KOKX 280001
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
801 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY...QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL
NEARBY FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA NOT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CT. STORMS HAVE
DISSIPATED AROUND NYC...AND ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO
NE NJ. WITH STABLE...MARINE AIRMASS OVER LONG ISLAND/NYC/COASTAL
CT...NOT EXPECTING MANY STORMS TO SURVIVE OR DEVELOP IN THAT
ATMOSPHERE.

WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WESTERN CT...THROUGH NYC...AND INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE NJ FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING...AND
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. NOT EXPECTING TOO MANY SEVERE STORMS...SO WILL ALLOW SVR
TSTM WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM.

SHOULD BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT NORTH/WEST OF
NYC WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FALLS. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHER FROM NYC AND
AREAS JUST NORTH/WEST.

WITH LESS MLCAPE...500-1000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

HIGHS ON THU SHOULD BE IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S NEAR THE
COAST...MAINLY PER WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE NJ APPROACHED 90. DEWPOINTS
ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
60S IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS WELL
NORTH/WEST OF NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING TREND RESUMES ALOFT WITH JET STREAM WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE AND
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SAME PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN THE JET PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE BROAD SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGING RESUMES BY MID NEXT WEEK WITH JET STREAM ONCE
AGAIN MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES QUICKLY
SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL LESSEN WITH TIME AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED
TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY DEEPENING WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENS MORE WITHIN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING WITHIN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE TUESDAY FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT ONCE AGAIN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED QUICKLY
OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL REGIONS. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS MOISTURE AS VERY LIGHT
QPF. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST REGION WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE AIR MASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM BUT A LITTLE COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
THE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NEAR NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY...AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AS WELL AS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MID NEXT WEEK. LOWS AT NIGHT OVERALL ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE A LOW
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
BRINGING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE NYC AREA TERMINALS RIGHT
AROUND 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT.

AT 00Z THURSDAY A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE NYC AREA TERMINALS AND WILL
WEAKEN AS THE LINE MOVES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LOCAL
AND BRIEF MARGINAL CEILINGS WITH THE SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN MARGINAL CEILINGS IN STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS 1000 TO 2000 FT. LOCAL MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE STRATUS MOVING IN...LOW CONFIDENCE
IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANY MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS BECOME VFR AFTER 15Z
THURSDAY.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL AROUND 01Z.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT END QUICKLY AROUND 03Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1200 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND COULD BE A HOUR OR
SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST...THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL AROUND 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1300 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND COULD BE A COUPLE
OF HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST...THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING.
LOW CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL BY 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1300 FT DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE...AND COULD BE A
COUPLE OF HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST...THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. LOW CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL BY 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1500 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLE COULD BE
NEARER TO 06Z. MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
LIKELY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL BY 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLE COULD BE
NEARER TO 06Z. MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
LIKELY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME STRATUS AROUND 1200 FT REMAINS THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER 0030Z TO 0130Z WITH
MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS. IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE CEILINGS WILL BE MARGINAL VFR WITH A IFR CEILINGS
FOR A WHILE TOWARD SUNRISE. MARGINAL CEILINGS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF CEILINGS AND
TIMING.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE
WIND SHIFTING TO NW TO N. VFR.
.FRI...VFR. LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EAST OF SANDY HOOK WITH USUAL LATE DAY/EVENING
SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. NY HARBOR AND WRN LONG ISLAND
SOUND COULD EXPERIENCE EITHER DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS OR A GUST FRONT
FROM WEAKENING INLAND STORMS TOWARD EVENING.

PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FETCH COULD BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT
SATURDAY...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...EVEN
AS WINDS SWITCH TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOTING PRECIP EFFICIENCY OF JUST OVER 1.5
INCH AND CORFIDI VECTORS 10 KT OR LESS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING OF CELLS THAT COULD LEAD TO RAINFALL OF 1-2
INCHES...WITH MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY NEAR 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CT. THIS COULD RESULT IN
THE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF
IT OCCURS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH PW FORECAST TO REACH UP TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL AS WELL FOR AN EXTENDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING NEARBY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280001
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
801 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY...QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL
NEARBY FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA NOT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CT. STORMS HAVE
DISSIPATED AROUND NYC...AND ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO
NE NJ. WITH STABLE...MARINE AIRMASS OVER LONG ISLAND/NYC/COASTAL
CT...NOT EXPECTING MANY STORMS TO SURVIVE OR DEVELOP IN THAT
ATMOSPHERE.

WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WESTERN CT...THROUGH NYC...AND INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE NJ FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING...AND
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. NOT EXPECTING TOO MANY SEVERE STORMS...SO WILL ALLOW SVR
TSTM WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM.

SHOULD BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT NORTH/WEST OF
NYC WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FALLS. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHER FROM NYC AND
AREAS JUST NORTH/WEST.

WITH LESS MLCAPE...500-1000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

HIGHS ON THU SHOULD BE IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S NEAR THE
COAST...MAINLY PER WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE NJ APPROACHED 90. DEWPOINTS
ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
60S IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS WELL
NORTH/WEST OF NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING TREND RESUMES ALOFT WITH JET STREAM WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE AND
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SAME PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN THE JET PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE BROAD SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGING RESUMES BY MID NEXT WEEK WITH JET STREAM ONCE
AGAIN MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES QUICKLY
SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL LESSEN WITH TIME AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED
TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY DEEPENING WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENS MORE WITHIN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING WITHIN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE TUESDAY FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT ONCE AGAIN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED QUICKLY
OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL REGIONS. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS MOISTURE AS VERY LIGHT
QPF. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST REGION WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE AIR MASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM BUT A LITTLE COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
THE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NEAR NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY...AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AS WELL AS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MID NEXT WEEK. LOWS AT NIGHT OVERALL ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE A LOW
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
BRINGING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE NYC AREA TERMINALS RIGHT
AROUND 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT.

AT 00Z THURSDAY A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE NYC AREA TERMINALS AND WILL
WEAKEN AS THE LINE MOVES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LOCAL
AND BRIEF MARGINAL CEILINGS WITH THE SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN MARGINAL CEILINGS IN STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS 1000 TO 2000 FT. LOCAL MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE STRATUS MOVING IN...LOW CONFIDENCE
IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANY MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS BECOME VFR AFTER 15Z
THURSDAY.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL AROUND 01Z.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT END QUICKLY AROUND 03Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1200 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND COULD BE A HOUR OR
SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST...THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL AROUND 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1300 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND COULD BE A COUPLE
OF HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST...THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING.
LOW CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL BY 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1300 FT DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE...AND COULD BE A
COUPLE OF HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST...THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. LOW CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL BY 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1500 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLE COULD BE
NEARER TO 06Z. MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
LIKELY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL BY 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLE COULD BE
NEARER TO 06Z. MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
LIKELY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME STRATUS AROUND 1200 FT REMAINS THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER 0030Z TO 0130Z WITH
MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS. IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE CEILINGS WILL BE MARGINAL VFR WITH A IFR CEILINGS
FOR A WHILE TOWARD SUNRISE. MARGINAL CEILINGS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF CEILINGS AND
TIMING.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE
WIND SHIFTING TO NW TO N. VFR.
.FRI...VFR. LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EAST OF SANDY HOOK WITH USUAL LATE DAY/EVENING
SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. NY HARBOR AND WRN LONG ISLAND
SOUND COULD EXPERIENCE EITHER DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS OR A GUST FRONT
FROM WEAKENING INLAND STORMS TOWARD EVENING.

PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FETCH COULD BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT
SATURDAY...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...EVEN
AS WINDS SWITCH TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOTING PRECIP EFFICIENCY OF JUST OVER 1.5
INCH AND CORFIDI VECTORS 10 KT OR LESS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING OF CELLS THAT COULD LEAD TO RAINFALL OF 1-2
INCHES...WITH MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY NEAR 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CT. THIS COULD RESULT IN
THE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF
IT OCCURS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH PW FORECAST TO REACH UP TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL AS WELL FOR AN EXTENDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING NEARBY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM





000
FXUS61 KOKX 272315
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
715 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY...QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL
NEARBY FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA NOT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CT. STORMS HAVE
DISSIPATED AROUND NYC...AND ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO
NE NJ. WITH STABLE...MARINE AIRMASS OVER LONG ISLAND/NYC/COASTAL
CT...NOT EXPECTING MANY STORMS TO SURVIVE OR DEVELOP IN THAT
ATMOSPHERE.

WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WESTERN CT...THROUGH NYC...AND INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE NJ FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING...AND
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. NOT EXPECTING TOO MANY SEVERE STORMS...SO WILL ALLOW SVR
TSTM WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM.

SHOULD BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT NORTH/WEST OF
NYC WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FALLS. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHER FROM NYC AND
AREAS JUST NORTH/WEST.

WITH LESS MLCAPE...500-1000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

HIGHS ON THU SHOULD BE IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S NEAR THE
COAST...MAINLY PER WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE NJ APPROACHED 90. DEWPOINTS
ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
60S IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS WELL
NORTH/WEST OF NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING TREND RESUMES ALOFT WITH JET STREAM WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE AND
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SAME PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN THE JET PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE BROAD SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGING RESUMES BY MID NEXT WEEK WITH JET STREAM ONCE
AGAIN MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES QUICKLY
SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL LESSEN WITH TIME AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED
TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY DEEPENING WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENS MORE WITHIN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING WITHIN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE TUESDAY FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT ONCE AGAIN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED QUICKLY
OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL REGIONS. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS MOISTURE AS VERY LIGHT
QPF. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST REGION WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE AIR MASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM BUT A LITTLE COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
THE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NEAR NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY...AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AS WELL AS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MID NEXT WEEK. LOWS AT NIGHT OVERALL ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PASS ACROSS
ON THURSDAY.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING OUTSIDE OF AN THUNDERSTORMS. STRATUS
TO THE EAST SHOULD TEMPORARILY SCOUR OUT. AS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE AT KEWR/KTEB AND KSWF. ANY STORMS WOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

RETURN TO STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCE EAST OF
NYC METRO. IFR TO LIFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

ANY STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR THURSDAY MORNING.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPEEDS DIMINISH TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR THUNDER. GENERALLY EXPECT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE AIRPORT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR THUNDER. GENERALLY EXPECT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE AIRPORT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER BACK TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BEFORE 00Z. MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER. STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN
AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:  LOW TO MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER. STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LINGERING STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF OR MOVE EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON BRIEFLY BEFORE DEVELOPING OR MOVING BACK IN
AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EAST OF SANDY HOOK WITH USUAL LATE DAY/EVENING
SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. NY HARBOR AND WRN LONG ISLAND
SOUND COULD EXPERIENCE EITHER DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS OR A GUST FRONT
FROM WEAKENING INLAND STORMS TOWARD EVENING.

PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FETCH COULD BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT
SATURDAY...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...EVEN
AS WINDS SWITCH TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOTING PRECIP EFFICIENCY OF JUST OVER 1.5
INCH AND CORFIDI VECTORS 10 KT OR LESS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING OF CELLS THAT COULD LEAD TO RAINFALL OF 1-2
INCHES...WITH MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY NEAR 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CT. THIS COULD RESULT IN
THE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF
IT OCCURS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH PW FORECAST TO REACH UP TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL AS WELL FOR AN EXTENDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING NEARBY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 272315
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
715 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY...QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL
NEARBY FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA NOT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CT. STORMS HAVE
DISSIPATED AROUND NYC...AND ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO
NE NJ. WITH STABLE...MARINE AIRMASS OVER LONG ISLAND/NYC/COASTAL
CT...NOT EXPECTING MANY STORMS TO SURVIVE OR DEVELOP IN THAT
ATMOSPHERE.

WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WESTERN CT...THROUGH NYC...AND INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE NJ FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING...AND
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. NOT EXPECTING TOO MANY SEVERE STORMS...SO WILL ALLOW SVR
TSTM WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM.

SHOULD BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT NORTH/WEST OF
NYC WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FALLS. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHER FROM NYC AND
AREAS JUST NORTH/WEST.

WITH LESS MLCAPE...500-1000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

HIGHS ON THU SHOULD BE IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S NEAR THE
COAST...MAINLY PER WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE NJ APPROACHED 90. DEWPOINTS
ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
60S IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS WELL
NORTH/WEST OF NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING TREND RESUMES ALOFT WITH JET STREAM WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE AND
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SAME PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN THE JET PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE BROAD SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGING RESUMES BY MID NEXT WEEK WITH JET STREAM ONCE
AGAIN MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES QUICKLY
SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL LESSEN WITH TIME AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED
TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY DEEPENING WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENS MORE WITHIN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING WITHIN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE TUESDAY FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT ONCE AGAIN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED QUICKLY
OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL REGIONS. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS MOISTURE AS VERY LIGHT
QPF. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST REGION WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE AIR MASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM BUT A LITTLE COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
THE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NEAR NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY...AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AS WELL AS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MID NEXT WEEK. LOWS AT NIGHT OVERALL ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PASS ACROSS
ON THURSDAY.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING OUTSIDE OF AN THUNDERSTORMS. STRATUS
TO THE EAST SHOULD TEMPORARILY SCOUR OUT. AS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE AT KEWR/KTEB AND KSWF. ANY STORMS WOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

RETURN TO STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCE EAST OF
NYC METRO. IFR TO LIFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

ANY STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR THURSDAY MORNING.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPEEDS DIMINISH TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR THUNDER. GENERALLY EXPECT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE AIRPORT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR THUNDER. GENERALLY EXPECT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE AIRPORT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER BACK TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BEFORE 00Z. MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER. STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN
AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:  LOW TO MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER. STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LINGERING STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF OR MOVE EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON BRIEFLY BEFORE DEVELOPING OR MOVING BACK IN
AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EAST OF SANDY HOOK WITH USUAL LATE DAY/EVENING
SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. NY HARBOR AND WRN LONG ISLAND
SOUND COULD EXPERIENCE EITHER DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS OR A GUST FRONT
FROM WEAKENING INLAND STORMS TOWARD EVENING.

PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FETCH COULD BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT
SATURDAY...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...EVEN
AS WINDS SWITCH TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOTING PRECIP EFFICIENCY OF JUST OVER 1.5
INCH AND CORFIDI VECTORS 10 KT OR LESS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING OF CELLS THAT COULD LEAD TO RAINFALL OF 1-2
INCHES...WITH MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY NEAR 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CT. THIS COULD RESULT IN
THE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF
IT OCCURS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH PW FORECAST TO REACH UP TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL AS WELL FOR AN EXTENDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING NEARBY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 272315
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
715 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY...QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL
NEARBY FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA NOT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CT. STORMS HAVE
DISSIPATED AROUND NYC...AND ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO
NE NJ. WITH STABLE...MARINE AIRMASS OVER LONG ISLAND/NYC/COASTAL
CT...NOT EXPECTING MANY STORMS TO SURVIVE OR DEVELOP IN THAT
ATMOSPHERE.

WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WESTERN CT...THROUGH NYC...AND INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE NJ FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING...AND
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. NOT EXPECTING TOO MANY SEVERE STORMS...SO WILL ALLOW SVR
TSTM WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM.

SHOULD BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT NORTH/WEST OF
NYC WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FALLS. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHER FROM NYC AND
AREAS JUST NORTH/WEST.

WITH LESS MLCAPE...500-1000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

HIGHS ON THU SHOULD BE IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S NEAR THE
COAST...MAINLY PER WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE NJ APPROACHED 90. DEWPOINTS
ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
60S IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS WELL
NORTH/WEST OF NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING TREND RESUMES ALOFT WITH JET STREAM WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE AND
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SAME PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN THE JET PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE BROAD SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGING RESUMES BY MID NEXT WEEK WITH JET STREAM ONCE
AGAIN MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES QUICKLY
SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL LESSEN WITH TIME AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED
TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY DEEPENING WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENS MORE WITHIN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING WITHIN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE TUESDAY FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT ONCE AGAIN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED QUICKLY
OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL REGIONS. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS MOISTURE AS VERY LIGHT
QPF. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST REGION WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE AIR MASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM BUT A LITTLE COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
THE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NEAR NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY...AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AS WELL AS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MID NEXT WEEK. LOWS AT NIGHT OVERALL ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PASS ACROSS
ON THURSDAY.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING OUTSIDE OF AN THUNDERSTORMS. STRATUS
TO THE EAST SHOULD TEMPORARILY SCOUR OUT. AS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE AT KEWR/KTEB AND KSWF. ANY STORMS WOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

RETURN TO STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCE EAST OF
NYC METRO. IFR TO LIFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

ANY STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR THURSDAY MORNING.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPEEDS DIMINISH TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR THUNDER. GENERALLY EXPECT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE AIRPORT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR THUNDER. GENERALLY EXPECT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE AIRPORT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER BACK TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BEFORE 00Z. MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER. STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN
AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:  LOW TO MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER. STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LINGERING STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF OR MOVE EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON BRIEFLY BEFORE DEVELOPING OR MOVING BACK IN
AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EAST OF SANDY HOOK WITH USUAL LATE DAY/EVENING
SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. NY HARBOR AND WRN LONG ISLAND
SOUND COULD EXPERIENCE EITHER DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS OR A GUST FRONT
FROM WEAKENING INLAND STORMS TOWARD EVENING.

PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FETCH COULD BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT
SATURDAY...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...EVEN
AS WINDS SWITCH TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOTING PRECIP EFFICIENCY OF JUST OVER 1.5
INCH AND CORFIDI VECTORS 10 KT OR LESS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING OF CELLS THAT COULD LEAD TO RAINFALL OF 1-2
INCHES...WITH MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY NEAR 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CT. THIS COULD RESULT IN
THE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF
IT OCCURS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH PW FORECAST TO REACH UP TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL AS WELL FOR AN EXTENDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING NEARBY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM





000
FXUS61 KOKX 272315
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
715 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY...QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL
NEARBY FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA NOT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CT. STORMS HAVE
DISSIPATED AROUND NYC...AND ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO
NE NJ. WITH STABLE...MARINE AIRMASS OVER LONG ISLAND/NYC/COASTAL
CT...NOT EXPECTING MANY STORMS TO SURVIVE OR DEVELOP IN THAT
ATMOSPHERE.

WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WESTERN CT...THROUGH NYC...AND INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE NJ FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING...AND
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. NOT EXPECTING TOO MANY SEVERE STORMS...SO WILL ALLOW SVR
TSTM WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM.

SHOULD BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT NORTH/WEST OF
NYC WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FALLS. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHER FROM NYC AND
AREAS JUST NORTH/WEST.

WITH LESS MLCAPE...500-1000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

HIGHS ON THU SHOULD BE IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S NEAR THE
COAST...MAINLY PER WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE NJ APPROACHED 90. DEWPOINTS
ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
60S IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS WELL
NORTH/WEST OF NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING TREND RESUMES ALOFT WITH JET STREAM WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE AND
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SAME PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN THE JET PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE BROAD SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGING RESUMES BY MID NEXT WEEK WITH JET STREAM ONCE
AGAIN MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES QUICKLY
SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL LESSEN WITH TIME AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED
TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY DEEPENING WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENS MORE WITHIN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING WITHIN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE TUESDAY FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT ONCE AGAIN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED QUICKLY
OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL REGIONS. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS MOISTURE AS VERY LIGHT
QPF. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST REGION WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE AIR MASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM BUT A LITTLE COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
THE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NEAR NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY...AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AS WELL AS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MID NEXT WEEK. LOWS AT NIGHT OVERALL ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PASS ACROSS
ON THURSDAY.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING OUTSIDE OF AN THUNDERSTORMS. STRATUS
TO THE EAST SHOULD TEMPORARILY SCOUR OUT. AS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE AT KEWR/KTEB AND KSWF. ANY STORMS WOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

RETURN TO STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCE EAST OF
NYC METRO. IFR TO LIFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

ANY STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR THURSDAY MORNING.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPEEDS DIMINISH TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR THUNDER. GENERALLY EXPECT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE AIRPORT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR THUNDER. GENERALLY EXPECT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE AIRPORT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER BACK TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BEFORE 00Z. MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER. STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN
AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:  LOW TO MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER. STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LINGERING STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF OR MOVE EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON BRIEFLY BEFORE DEVELOPING OR MOVING BACK IN
AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EAST OF SANDY HOOK WITH USUAL LATE DAY/EVENING
SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. NY HARBOR AND WRN LONG ISLAND
SOUND COULD EXPERIENCE EITHER DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS OR A GUST FRONT
FROM WEAKENING INLAND STORMS TOWARD EVENING.

PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FETCH COULD BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT
SATURDAY...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...EVEN
AS WINDS SWITCH TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOTING PRECIP EFFICIENCY OF JUST OVER 1.5
INCH AND CORFIDI VECTORS 10 KT OR LESS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING OF CELLS THAT COULD LEAD TO RAINFALL OF 1-2
INCHES...WITH MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY NEAR 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CT. THIS COULD RESULT IN
THE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF
IT OCCURS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH PW FORECAST TO REACH UP TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL AS WELL FOR AN EXTENDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING NEARBY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM





000
FXUS61 KOKX 272003
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
403 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY...QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL
NEARBY FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SVR TSTM WATCH 227 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR ALL AREAS NORTH/WEST
OF NYC. LINE OF TSTMS OVER ERN PA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AND INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG OVER NRN NJ AND THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LEE TROUGH
PROVIDING LIFT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HRRR ALSO INDICATES
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD DISCRETE CELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE.
STRONGER CELLS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH THE LINE HAVE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. WITH CORFIDI
VECTORS 10 KT OR LESS AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY OVER 1.5 INCHES...WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES.

BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR AND HOW STRONG THESE STORMS WILL SURVIVE
INTO THE MARINE LAYER IN PLACE OVER NYC...LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF
SRN CT. ATTM THINK STRONGEST STORMS WILL WEAKEN BELOW SVR LIMITS
AS THEY APPROACH THE ERN EDGE OF THE WATCH AREA TOWARD EVENING...
BUT DEPENDING ON LATER TRENDS IT IS POSSIBLE THE WATCH MAY HAVE TO
BE LOCALLY EXTENDED INTO COUNTIES JUST TO ITS EAST INCLUDING NEW
HAVEN CT...ALL OF NYC...AND NASSAU COUNTY.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE REST OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT
WILL BE TOO STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION DUE
TO MARINE INFLUENCE...BUT HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ANY
WEAKENING CONVECTION THAT DRIFTS INTO THESE AREAS LATER TONIGHT.

AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS 80-85 FROM NYC NORTH/WEST...IN THE 70S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND ONLY UPPER 60S FOR THE SOUTH SHORES OF ERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT...SHOULD BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT NORTH/WEST OF
NYC WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FALLS. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHER FROM NYC AND
AREAS JUST NORTH/WEST.

WITH LESS MLCAPE...500-1000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

HIGHS ON THU SHOULD BE IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S NEAR THE
COAST...MAINLY PER WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE NJ APPROACHED 90. DEWPOINTS
ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
60S IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS WELL
NORTH/WEST OF NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING TREND RESUMES ALOFT WITH JET STREAM WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE AND
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SAME PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN THE JET PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE BROAD SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGING RESUMES BY MID NEXT WEEK WITH JET STREAM ONCE
AGAIN MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES QUICKLY
SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL LESSEN WITH TIME AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED
TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY DEEPENING WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENS MORE WITHIN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING WITHIN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE TUESDAY FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT ONCE AGAIN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED QUICKLY
OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL REGIONS. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS MOISTURE AS VERY LIGHT
QPF. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST REGION WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE AIR MASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM BUT A LITTLE COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
THE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NEAR NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY...AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AS WELL AS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MID NEXT WEEK. LOWS AT NIGHT OVERALL ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PASS ACROSS
ON THURSDAY.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING OUTSIDE OF AN THUNDERSTORMS. STRATUS
TO THE EAST SHOULD TEMPORARILY SCOUR OUT. AS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE AT KEWR/KTEB AND KSWF. ANY STORMS WOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

RETURN TO STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCE EAST OF
NYC METRO. IFR TO LIFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

ANY STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR THURSDAY MORNING.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPEEDS DIMINISH TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR THUNDER. GENERALLY EXPECT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE AIRPORT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR THUNDER. GENERALLY EXPECT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE AIRPORT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER BACK TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BEFORE 00Z. MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER. STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN
AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:  LOW TO MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER. STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LINGERING STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF OR MOVE EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON BRIEFLY BEFORE DEVELOPING OR MOVING BACK IN
AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EAST OF SANDY HOOK WITH USUAL LATE DAY/EVENING
SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. NY HARBOR AND WRN LONG ISLAND
SOUND COULD EXPERIENCE EITHER DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS OR A GUST FRONT
FROM WEAKENING INLAND STORMS TOWARD EVENING.

PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FETCH COULD BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT
SATURDAY...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...EVEN
AS WINDS SWITCH TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOTING PRECIP EFFICIENCY OF JUST OVER 1.5
INCH AND CORFIDI VECTORS 10 KT OR LESS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING OF CELLS THAT COULD LEAD TO RAINFALL OF 1-2
INCHES...WITH MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY NEAR 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CT. THIS COULD RESULT IN
THE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF
IT OCCURS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH PW FORECAST TO REACH UP TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL AS WELL FOR AN EXTENDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING NEARBY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/JM
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 272003
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
403 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY...QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL
NEARBY FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SVR TSTM WATCH 227 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR ALL AREAS NORTH/WEST
OF NYC. LINE OF TSTMS OVER ERN PA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AND INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG OVER NRN NJ AND THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LEE TROUGH
PROVIDING LIFT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HRRR ALSO INDICATES
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD DISCRETE CELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE.
STRONGER CELLS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH THE LINE HAVE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. WITH CORFIDI
VECTORS 10 KT OR LESS AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY OVER 1.5 INCHES...WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES.

BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR AND HOW STRONG THESE STORMS WILL SURVIVE
INTO THE MARINE LAYER IN PLACE OVER NYC...LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF
SRN CT. ATTM THINK STRONGEST STORMS WILL WEAKEN BELOW SVR LIMITS
AS THEY APPROACH THE ERN EDGE OF THE WATCH AREA TOWARD EVENING...
BUT DEPENDING ON LATER TRENDS IT IS POSSIBLE THE WATCH MAY HAVE TO
BE LOCALLY EXTENDED INTO COUNTIES JUST TO ITS EAST INCLUDING NEW
HAVEN CT...ALL OF NYC...AND NASSAU COUNTY.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE REST OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT
WILL BE TOO STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION DUE
TO MARINE INFLUENCE...BUT HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ANY
WEAKENING CONVECTION THAT DRIFTS INTO THESE AREAS LATER TONIGHT.

AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS 80-85 FROM NYC NORTH/WEST...IN THE 70S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND ONLY UPPER 60S FOR THE SOUTH SHORES OF ERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT...SHOULD BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT NORTH/WEST OF
NYC WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FALLS. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHER FROM NYC AND
AREAS JUST NORTH/WEST.

WITH LESS MLCAPE...500-1000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

HIGHS ON THU SHOULD BE IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S NEAR THE
COAST...MAINLY PER WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE NJ APPROACHED 90. DEWPOINTS
ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
60S IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS WELL
NORTH/WEST OF NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING TREND RESUMES ALOFT WITH JET STREAM WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE AND
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SAME PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN THE JET PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE BROAD SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGING RESUMES BY MID NEXT WEEK WITH JET STREAM ONCE
AGAIN MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES QUICKLY
SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL LESSEN WITH TIME AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED
TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY DEEPENING WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENS MORE WITHIN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING WITHIN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE TUESDAY FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT ONCE AGAIN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED QUICKLY
OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL REGIONS. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS MOISTURE AS VERY LIGHT
QPF. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST REGION WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE AIR MASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM BUT A LITTLE COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
THE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NEAR NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY...AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AS WELL AS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MID NEXT WEEK. LOWS AT NIGHT OVERALL ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PASS ACROSS
ON THURSDAY.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING OUTSIDE OF AN THUNDERSTORMS. STRATUS
TO THE EAST SHOULD TEMPORARILY SCOUR OUT. AS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE AT KEWR/KTEB AND KSWF. ANY STORMS WOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

RETURN TO STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCE EAST OF
NYC METRO. IFR TO LIFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

ANY STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR THURSDAY MORNING.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPEEDS DIMINISH TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR THUNDER. GENERALLY EXPECT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE AIRPORT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR THUNDER. GENERALLY EXPECT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE AIRPORT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER BACK TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BEFORE 00Z. MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER. STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN
AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:  LOW TO MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER. STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LINGERING STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF OR MOVE EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON BRIEFLY BEFORE DEVELOPING OR MOVING BACK IN
AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EAST OF SANDY HOOK WITH USUAL LATE DAY/EVENING
SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. NY HARBOR AND WRN LONG ISLAND
SOUND COULD EXPERIENCE EITHER DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS OR A GUST FRONT
FROM WEAKENING INLAND STORMS TOWARD EVENING.

PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FETCH COULD BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT
SATURDAY...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...EVEN
AS WINDS SWITCH TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOTING PRECIP EFFICIENCY OF JUST OVER 1.5
INCH AND CORFIDI VECTORS 10 KT OR LESS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING OF CELLS THAT COULD LEAD TO RAINFALL OF 1-2
INCHES...WITH MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY NEAR 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CT. THIS COULD RESULT IN
THE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF
IT OCCURS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH PW FORECAST TO REACH UP TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL AS WELL FOR AN EXTENDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING NEARBY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/JM
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM





000
FXUS61 KOKX 271820
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
220 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH 227 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR ALL AREAS NORTH/WEST
OF NYC. LINE OF TSTMS OVER ERN PA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AND INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG OVER NRN NJ AND THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LEE TROUGH
PROVIDING LIFT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. EARLIER HRRR ALSO INDICATED
POTENTIAL FOR SCT DISCRETE CELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE.
STRONGER CELLS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS HAVE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. WITH CORFIDI VECTORS 10 KT
OR LESS AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY OVER 1.5 INCHES...WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES.

BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR AND HOW STRONG THESE STORMS WILL SURVIVE
INTO THE MARINE LAYER IN PLACE OVER NYC...LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF
SRN CT. ATTM THINK STRONGEST STORMS WILL WEAKEN BELOW SVR LIMITS
AS THEY APPROACH THE ERN EDGE OF THE WATCH AREA TOWARD EVENING...
BUT DEPENDING ON LATER TRENDS IT IS POSSIBLE THE WATCH MAY HAVE TO
BE LOCALLY EXTENDED INTO COUNTIES JUST TO ITS EAST INCLUDING NEW
HAVEN CT...ALL OF NYC...AND NASSAU COUNTY.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE REST OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT
WILL BE TOO STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION DUE
TO MARINE INFLUENCE...BUT HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ANY
WEAKENING CONVECTION THAT DRIFTS INTO THESE AREAS LATER TONIGHT.

AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS 80-85 FROM NYC NORTH/WEST...IN THE 70S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND ONLY UPPER 60S FOR THE SOUTH SHORES OF ERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT...SHOULD SE A HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT NORTH/WEST OF
NYC WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FALLS. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHER FROM NYC AND
AREAS JUST NORTH/WEST.

WITH LESS MLCAPE...500-1000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

HIGHS ON THU SHOULD BE IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S NEAR THE
COAST...MAINLY PER WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE NJ APPROACHED 90. DEWPOINTS
ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
60S IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS WELL
NORTH/WEST OF NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL
INLAND. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE FASTER AND MORE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
00Z ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PASS ACROSS
THURSDAY.

ANY STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF AN THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER AFTER
20Z AT KEWR/KTEB AND KSWF. THUNDER WOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

RETURN TO STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCE EAST OF
NYC METRO. IFR TO LIFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

ANY STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR THURSDAY MORNING.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPEEDS DIMINISH TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR THUNDER AFTER 21-22Z. GENERALLY
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE AIRPORT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR THUNDER AFTER 21-22Z. GENERALLY
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE AIRPORT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER AFTER 20-21Z. STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER AFTER 20-21Z. STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:  LOW TO MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER AFTER 21-22Z.
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF BY 19-20Z. STRATUS AND
FOG LIKELY IMPACTS THE AIRPORT AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
DO NOT THINK SEA BREEZE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25 KT TO NY HARBOR OR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS...SO HAVE CANCELLED SCA
THERE. GUSTS SHOULD PEAK AT OR JUST OVER 20 KT IN THOSE AREAS.
NY HARBOR AND WRN LONG ISLAND SOUND COULD EXPERIENCE EITHER DIRECT
TSTM IMPACTS OR A GUST FRONT FROM WEAKENING INLAND STORMS TOWARD
EVENING.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THEN...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOTING PRECIP EFFICIENCY OF JUST OVER 1.5
INCH AND CORFIDI VECTORS 10 KT OR LESS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING OF CELLS THAT COULD LEAD TO RAINFALL OF 1-2
INCHES...WITH MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY NEAR 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CT. THIS COULD RESULT IN
THE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF
IT OCCURS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/JM
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM





000
FXUS61 KOKX 271820
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
220 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH 227 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR ALL AREAS NORTH/WEST
OF NYC. LINE OF TSTMS OVER ERN PA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AND INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG OVER NRN NJ AND THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LEE TROUGH
PROVIDING LIFT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. EARLIER HRRR ALSO INDICATED
POTENTIAL FOR SCT DISCRETE CELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE.
STRONGER CELLS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS HAVE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. WITH CORFIDI VECTORS 10 KT
OR LESS AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY OVER 1.5 INCHES...WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES.

BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR AND HOW STRONG THESE STORMS WILL SURVIVE
INTO THE MARINE LAYER IN PLACE OVER NYC...LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF
SRN CT. ATTM THINK STRONGEST STORMS WILL WEAKEN BELOW SVR LIMITS
AS THEY APPROACH THE ERN EDGE OF THE WATCH AREA TOWARD EVENING...
BUT DEPENDING ON LATER TRENDS IT IS POSSIBLE THE WATCH MAY HAVE TO
BE LOCALLY EXTENDED INTO COUNTIES JUST TO ITS EAST INCLUDING NEW
HAVEN CT...ALL OF NYC...AND NASSAU COUNTY.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE REST OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT
WILL BE TOO STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION DUE
TO MARINE INFLUENCE...BUT HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ANY
WEAKENING CONVECTION THAT DRIFTS INTO THESE AREAS LATER TONIGHT.

AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS 80-85 FROM NYC NORTH/WEST...IN THE 70S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND ONLY UPPER 60S FOR THE SOUTH SHORES OF ERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT...SHOULD SE A HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT NORTH/WEST OF
NYC WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FALLS. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHER FROM NYC AND
AREAS JUST NORTH/WEST.

WITH LESS MLCAPE...500-1000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

HIGHS ON THU SHOULD BE IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S NEAR THE
COAST...MAINLY PER WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE NJ APPROACHED 90. DEWPOINTS
ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
60S IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS WELL
NORTH/WEST OF NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL
INLAND. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE FASTER AND MORE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
00Z ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PASS ACROSS
THURSDAY.

ANY STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF AN THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER AFTER
20Z AT KEWR/KTEB AND KSWF. THUNDER WOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

RETURN TO STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCE EAST OF
NYC METRO. IFR TO LIFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

ANY STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR THURSDAY MORNING.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPEEDS DIMINISH TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR THUNDER AFTER 21-22Z. GENERALLY
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE AIRPORT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR THUNDER AFTER 21-22Z. GENERALLY
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE AIRPORT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER AFTER 20-21Z. STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER AFTER 20-21Z. STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:  LOW TO MEDIUM PROB FOR THUNDER AFTER 21-22Z.
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE AIRPORT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF BY 19-20Z. STRATUS AND
FOG LIKELY IMPACTS THE AIRPORT AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
DO NOT THINK SEA BREEZE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25 KT TO NY HARBOR OR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS...SO HAVE CANCELLED SCA
THERE. GUSTS SHOULD PEAK AT OR JUST OVER 20 KT IN THOSE AREAS.
NY HARBOR AND WRN LONG ISLAND SOUND COULD EXPERIENCE EITHER DIRECT
TSTM IMPACTS OR A GUST FRONT FROM WEAKENING INLAND STORMS TOWARD
EVENING.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THEN...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOTING PRECIP EFFICIENCY OF JUST OVER 1.5
INCH AND CORFIDI VECTORS 10 KT OR LESS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING OF CELLS THAT COULD LEAD TO RAINFALL OF 1-2
INCHES...WITH MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY NEAR 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CT. THIS COULD RESULT IN
THE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF
IT OCCURS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/JM
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 271335
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
935 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...SLIDING TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. MAIN FOCUS
TODAY IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM UPSTATE SC INTO
OH...THAT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS AT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE SOME LIFT OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AS THE SEABREEZE INTERSECTS A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH FORECAST TO SET UP THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH FORECAST CAPES OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT ON
AVERAGE OF 1500-2500 J/KG...25-30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND THE REGION
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 85KT 300 HPA JET...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THIS AREA. BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS GENERALLY 25-50 DO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DISCRETE SUPERCELL...WITH MAINLY MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION. THE SEVERE THREAT IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH SPC/S
AREA OF MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
NOT QUITE SO SURE ABOUT THE MARGINAL RISK OVER NYC...AS SEABREEZE
COULD STABILIZE THINGS BEFORE ANY CONVECTION ARRIVES THERE. FOR
THAT REASON WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND SW CT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NYC.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION...REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
DETAILS.

FOR NOW APPEARS MOST IF NOT ALL OF LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO MARINE
INFLUENCE TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION AT BAY...HOWEVER DUE TO PROXIMITY
DUE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN N MIDDLESEX...N NASSAU AND NW
SUFFOLK COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COULD SEE STORMS LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT ABSENT ANY NOTABLE FORCING.
IT WILL BE NOTABLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG
TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE/HOW MUCH IT RAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG
IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME...AND KEPT SE SUFFOLK COUNTY AT SLIGHT CHANCE.
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST.

WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CAPE - 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 825 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE
OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE
NJ AND/OR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NYC CAME IN WITH A HIGH AT OR JUST
ABOVE 90.DEWPOINTS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S...SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD PEAK OUT
IN WARMER AREAS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE FASTER AND MORE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
00Z ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY...AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THU.

STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AND EXPANDED. STRATUS CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT
AND SCATTER BY AFTERNOON TO VFR.

OTHERWISE...AFTN TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AFT 18Z. THE ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT AREAS
ROUGHLY ALONG AND W OF A KHPN- KEWR LINE.

MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES TNGT WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG.

S TO SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST SPEEDS THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVE...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJFK WHERE SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT
EXPECTED.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CEILING IMPROVEMENT MAY BE DELAYED
SLIGHTLY. LOW PROB FOR LATE DAY TSTMS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CEILING IMPROVEMENT MAY BE DELAYED
SLIGHTLY. LOW PROB FOR LATE DAY TSTMS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  TIMING OF CEILING IMPROVEMENT MAY BE DELAYED
SLIGHTLY. LOW PROB FOR LATE DAY TSTMS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  TIMING OF CEILING IMPROVEMENT MAY BE DELAYED
SLIGHTLY. LOW PROB FOR LATE DAY TSTMS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:  TIMING OF CEILING IMPROVEMENT MAY BE DELAYED
SLIGHTLY. LOW PROB FOR LATE DAY TSTMS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS:  TIMING OF CEILING IMPROVEMENT MAY BE DELAYED
SLIGHTLY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE SCA THERE.

ONCE AGAIN APPEARS THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT TO THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND TO NEW YORK
HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THOSE TWO ZONES FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT
AS WELL. ON THE SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...GUSTS
SHOULD PEAK OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAYBE SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT.

FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW IT APPEARS SEABREEZE SHOULD BE WEAKER...AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY MORE RELAXED...SO EXPECTING SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS.

HAVE ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH DOWN 1 FT TODAY-THURSDAY...AS IT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN OVER FORECASTING WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE BUOYS BY
ABOUT THAT AMOUNT.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THEN...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/4 AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS...DOWN TO ZERO ELSEWHERE.

NOTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
STORM MOTION FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF IT OCCURS OVER AREAS
RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...BC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...BC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...BC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 271335
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
935 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...SLIDING TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. MAIN FOCUS
TODAY IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM UPSTATE SC INTO
OH...THAT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS AT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE SOME LIFT OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AS THE SEABREEZE INTERSECTS A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH FORECAST TO SET UP THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH FORECAST CAPES OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT ON
AVERAGE OF 1500-2500 J/KG...25-30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND THE REGION
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 85KT 300 HPA JET...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THIS AREA. BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS GENERALLY 25-50 DO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DISCRETE SUPERCELL...WITH MAINLY MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION. THE SEVERE THREAT IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH SPC/S
AREA OF MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
NOT QUITE SO SURE ABOUT THE MARGINAL RISK OVER NYC...AS SEABREEZE
COULD STABILIZE THINGS BEFORE ANY CONVECTION ARRIVES THERE. FOR
THAT REASON WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND SW CT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NYC.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION...REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
DETAILS.

FOR NOW APPEARS MOST IF NOT ALL OF LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO MARINE
INFLUENCE TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION AT BAY...HOWEVER DUE TO PROXIMITY
DUE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN N MIDDLESEX...N NASSAU AND NW
SUFFOLK COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COULD SEE STORMS LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT ABSENT ANY NOTABLE FORCING.
IT WILL BE NOTABLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG
TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE/HOW MUCH IT RAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG
IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME...AND KEPT SE SUFFOLK COUNTY AT SLIGHT CHANCE.
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST.

WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CAPE - 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 825 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE
OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE
NJ AND/OR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NYC CAME IN WITH A HIGH AT OR JUST
ABOVE 90.DEWPOINTS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S...SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD PEAK OUT
IN WARMER AREAS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE FASTER AND MORE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
00Z ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY...AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THU.

STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AND EXPANDED. STRATUS CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT
AND SCATTER BY AFTERNOON TO VFR.

OTHERWISE...AFTN TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AFT 18Z. THE ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT AREAS
ROUGHLY ALONG AND W OF A KHPN- KEWR LINE.

MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES TNGT WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG.

S TO SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST SPEEDS THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVE...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJFK WHERE SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT
EXPECTED.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CEILING IMPROVEMENT MAY BE DELAYED
SLIGHTLY. LOW PROB FOR LATE DAY TSTMS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CEILING IMPROVEMENT MAY BE DELAYED
SLIGHTLY. LOW PROB FOR LATE DAY TSTMS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  TIMING OF CEILING IMPROVEMENT MAY BE DELAYED
SLIGHTLY. LOW PROB FOR LATE DAY TSTMS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  TIMING OF CEILING IMPROVEMENT MAY BE DELAYED
SLIGHTLY. LOW PROB FOR LATE DAY TSTMS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:  TIMING OF CEILING IMPROVEMENT MAY BE DELAYED
SLIGHTLY. LOW PROB FOR LATE DAY TSTMS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS:  TIMING OF CEILING IMPROVEMENT MAY BE DELAYED
SLIGHTLY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE SCA THERE.

ONCE AGAIN APPEARS THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT TO THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND TO NEW YORK
HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THOSE TWO ZONES FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT
AS WELL. ON THE SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...GUSTS
SHOULD PEAK OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAYBE SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT.

FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW IT APPEARS SEABREEZE SHOULD BE WEAKER...AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY MORE RELAXED...SO EXPECTING SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS.

HAVE ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH DOWN 1 FT TODAY-THURSDAY...AS IT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN OVER FORECASTING WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE BUOYS BY
ABOUT THAT AMOUNT.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THEN...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/4 AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS...DOWN TO ZERO ELSEWHERE.

NOTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
STORM MOTION FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF IT OCCURS OVER AREAS
RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...BC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...BC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...BC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 271335
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
935 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...SLIDING TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. MAIN FOCUS
TODAY IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM UPSTATE SC INTO
OH...THAT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS AT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE SOME LIFT OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AS THE SEABREEZE INTERSECTS A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH FORECAST TO SET UP THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH FORECAST CAPES OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT ON
AVERAGE OF 1500-2500 J/KG...25-30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND THE REGION
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 85KT 300 HPA JET...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THIS AREA. BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS GENERALLY 25-50 DO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DISCRETE SUPERCELL...WITH MAINLY MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION. THE SEVERE THREAT IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH SPC/S
AREA OF MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
NOT QUITE SO SURE ABOUT THE MARGINAL RISK OVER NYC...AS SEABREEZE
COULD STABILIZE THINGS BEFORE ANY CONVECTION ARRIVES THERE. FOR
THAT REASON WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND SW CT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NYC.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION...REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
DETAILS.

FOR NOW APPEARS MOST IF NOT ALL OF LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO MARINE
INFLUENCE TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION AT BAY...HOWEVER DUE TO PROXIMITY
DUE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN N MIDDLESEX...N NASSAU AND NW
SUFFOLK COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COULD SEE STORMS LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT ABSENT ANY NOTABLE FORCING.
IT WILL BE NOTABLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG
TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE/HOW MUCH IT RAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG
IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME...AND KEPT SE SUFFOLK COUNTY AT SLIGHT CHANCE.
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST.

WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CAPE - 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 825 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE
OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE
NJ AND/OR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NYC CAME IN WITH A HIGH AT OR JUST
ABOVE 90.DEWPOINTS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S...SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD PEAK OUT
IN WARMER AREAS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE FASTER AND MORE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
00Z ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY...AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THU.

STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AND EXPANDED. STRATUS CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT
AND SCATTER BY AFTERNOON TO VFR.

OTHERWISE...AFTN TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AFT 18Z. THE ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT AREAS
ROUGHLY ALONG AND W OF A KHPN- KEWR LINE.

MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES TNGT WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG.

S TO SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST SPEEDS THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVE...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJFK WHERE SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT
EXPECTED.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CEILING IMPROVEMENT MAY BE DELAYED
SLIGHTLY. LOW PROB FOR LATE DAY TSTMS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CEILING IMPROVEMENT MAY BE DELAYED
SLIGHTLY. LOW PROB FOR LATE DAY TSTMS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  TIMING OF CEILING IMPROVEMENT MAY BE DELAYED
SLIGHTLY. LOW PROB FOR LATE DAY TSTMS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  TIMING OF CEILING IMPROVEMENT MAY BE DELAYED
SLIGHTLY. LOW PROB FOR LATE DAY TSTMS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:  TIMING OF CEILING IMPROVEMENT MAY BE DELAYED
SLIGHTLY. LOW PROB FOR LATE DAY TSTMS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS:  TIMING OF CEILING IMPROVEMENT MAY BE DELAYED
SLIGHTLY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE SCA THERE.

ONCE AGAIN APPEARS THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT TO THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND TO NEW YORK
HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THOSE TWO ZONES FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT
AS WELL. ON THE SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...GUSTS
SHOULD PEAK OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAYBE SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT.

FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW IT APPEARS SEABREEZE SHOULD BE WEAKER...AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY MORE RELAXED...SO EXPECTING SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS.

HAVE ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH DOWN 1 FT TODAY-THURSDAY...AS IT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN OVER FORECASTING WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE BUOYS BY
ABOUT THAT AMOUNT.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THEN...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/4 AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS...DOWN TO ZERO ELSEWHERE.

NOTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
STORM MOTION FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF IT OCCURS OVER AREAS
RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...BC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...BC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...BC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 271335
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
935 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...SLIDING TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. MAIN FOCUS
TODAY IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM UPSTATE SC INTO
OH...THAT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS AT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE SOME LIFT OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AS THE SEABREEZE INTERSECTS A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH FORECAST TO SET UP THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH FORECAST CAPES OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT ON
AVERAGE OF 1500-2500 J/KG...25-30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND THE REGION
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 85KT 300 HPA JET...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THIS AREA. BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS GENERALLY 25-50 DO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DISCRETE SUPERCELL...WITH MAINLY MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION. THE SEVERE THREAT IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH SPC/S
AREA OF MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
NOT QUITE SO SURE ABOUT THE MARGINAL RISK OVER NYC...AS SEABREEZE
COULD STABILIZE THINGS BEFORE ANY CONVECTION ARRIVES THERE. FOR
THAT REASON WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND SW CT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NYC.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION...REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
DETAILS.

FOR NOW APPEARS MOST IF NOT ALL OF LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO MARINE
INFLUENCE TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION AT BAY...HOWEVER DUE TO PROXIMITY
DUE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN N MIDDLESEX...N NASSAU AND NW
SUFFOLK COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COULD SEE STORMS LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT ABSENT ANY NOTABLE FORCING.
IT WILL BE NOTABLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG
TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE/HOW MUCH IT RAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG
IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME...AND KEPT SE SUFFOLK COUNTY AT SLIGHT CHANCE.
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST.

WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CAPE - 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 825 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE
OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE
NJ AND/OR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NYC CAME IN WITH A HIGH AT OR JUST
ABOVE 90.DEWPOINTS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S...SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD PEAK OUT
IN WARMER AREAS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE FASTER AND MORE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
00Z ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY...AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THU.

STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AND EXPANDED. STRATUS CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT
AND SCATTER BY AFTERNOON TO VFR.

OTHERWISE...AFTN TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AFT 18Z. THE ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT AREAS
ROUGHLY ALONG AND W OF A KHPN- KEWR LINE.

MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES TNGT WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG.

S TO SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST SPEEDS THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVE...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJFK WHERE SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT
EXPECTED.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CEILING IMPROVEMENT MAY BE DELAYED
SLIGHTLY. LOW PROB FOR LATE DAY TSTMS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CEILING IMPROVEMENT MAY BE DELAYED
SLIGHTLY. LOW PROB FOR LATE DAY TSTMS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  TIMING OF CEILING IMPROVEMENT MAY BE DELAYED
SLIGHTLY. LOW PROB FOR LATE DAY TSTMS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  TIMING OF CEILING IMPROVEMENT MAY BE DELAYED
SLIGHTLY. LOW PROB FOR LATE DAY TSTMS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:  TIMING OF CEILING IMPROVEMENT MAY BE DELAYED
SLIGHTLY. LOW PROB FOR LATE DAY TSTMS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS:  TIMING OF CEILING IMPROVEMENT MAY BE DELAYED
SLIGHTLY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE SCA THERE.

ONCE AGAIN APPEARS THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT TO THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND TO NEW YORK
HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THOSE TWO ZONES FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT
AS WELL. ON THE SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...GUSTS
SHOULD PEAK OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAYBE SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT.

FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW IT APPEARS SEABREEZE SHOULD BE WEAKER...AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY MORE RELAXED...SO EXPECTING SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS.

HAVE ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH DOWN 1 FT TODAY-THURSDAY...AS IT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN OVER FORECASTING WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE BUOYS BY
ABOUT THAT AMOUNT.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THEN...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/4 AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS...DOWN TO ZERO ELSEWHERE.

NOTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
STORM MOTION FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF IT OCCURS OVER AREAS
RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...BC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...BC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...BC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 271129
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
729 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...SLIDING TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. MAIN FOCUS
TODAY IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM UPSTATE SC INTO
OH...THAT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS AT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE SOME LIFT OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AS THE SEABREEZE INTERSECTS A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH FORECAST TO SET UP THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH FORECAST CAPES OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT ON
AVERAGE OF 1500-2500 J/KG...25-30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND THE REGION
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 85KT 300 HPA JET...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THIS AREA. BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS GENERALLY 25-50 DO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DISCRETE SUPERCELL...WITH MAINLY MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION. THE SEVERE THREAT IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH SPC/S
AREA OF MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
NOT QUITE SO SURE ABOUT THE MARGINAL RISK OVER NYC...AS SEABREEZE
COULD STABILIZE THINGS BEFORE ANY CONVECTION ARRIVES THERE. FOR
THAT REASON WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND SW CT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NYC.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION...REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
DETAILS.

FOR NOW APPEARS MOST IF NOT ALL OF LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO MARINE
INFLUENCE TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION AT BAY...HOWEVER DUE TO PROXIMITY
DUE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN N MIDDLESEX...N NASSAU AND NW
SUFFOLK COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COULD SEE STORMS LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT ABSENT ANY NOTABLE FORCING.
IT WILL BE NOTABLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG
TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE/HOW MUCH IT RAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG
IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME...AND KEPT SE SUFFOLK COUNTY AT SLIGHT CHANCE.
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST.

WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CAPE - 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 825 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE
OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE
NJ AND/OR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NYC CAME IN WITH A HIGH AT OR JUST
ABOVE 90.DEWPOINTS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S...SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD PEAK OUT
IN WARMER AREAS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE FASTER AND MORE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
00Z ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE AREA THU.

MAINLY VFR THIS MRNG...HOWEVER A FEW POCKETS OF STRATUS WILL
PRODUCE SOME MVFR AT TIMES. ANY MVFR BURNS OFF BY 13-15Z EXCEPT
KGON WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT IT COULD LINGER MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IF HZ DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE...AFTN TSTMS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AFT 18Z. THE
ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND W OF
A KHPN-KEWR LINE.

MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES TNGT WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG.

S TO SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST SPEEDS THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVE...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJFK WHERE SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT
EXPECTED.


...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS THRU 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS THRU 14Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB THAT MVFR CIGS LINGER PAST 13Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB THAT MVFR CIGS LINGER PAST 13Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE SCA THERE.

ONCE AGAIN APPEARS THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT TO THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND TO NEW YORK
HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THOSE TWO ZONES FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT
AS WELL. ON THE SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...GUSTS
SHOULD PEAK OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAYBE SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT.

FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW IT APPEARS SEABREEZE SHOULD BE WEAKER...AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY MORE RELAXED...SO EXPECTING SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS.

HAVE ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH DOWN 1 FT TODAY-THURSDAY...AS IT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN OVER FORECASTING WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE BUOYS BY
ABOUT THAT AMOUNT.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THEN...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/4 AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS...DOWN TO ZERO ELSEWHERE.

NOTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
STORM MOTION FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF IT OCCURS OVER AREAS
RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...BC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...BC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 271129
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
729 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...SLIDING TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. MAIN FOCUS
TODAY IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM UPSTATE SC INTO
OH...THAT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS AT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE SOME LIFT OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AS THE SEABREEZE INTERSECTS A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH FORECAST TO SET UP THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH FORECAST CAPES OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT ON
AVERAGE OF 1500-2500 J/KG...25-30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND THE REGION
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 85KT 300 HPA JET...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THIS AREA. BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS GENERALLY 25-50 DO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DISCRETE SUPERCELL...WITH MAINLY MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION. THE SEVERE THREAT IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH SPC/S
AREA OF MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
NOT QUITE SO SURE ABOUT THE MARGINAL RISK OVER NYC...AS SEABREEZE
COULD STABILIZE THINGS BEFORE ANY CONVECTION ARRIVES THERE. FOR
THAT REASON WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND SW CT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NYC.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION...REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
DETAILS.

FOR NOW APPEARS MOST IF NOT ALL OF LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO MARINE
INFLUENCE TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION AT BAY...HOWEVER DUE TO PROXIMITY
DUE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN N MIDDLESEX...N NASSAU AND NW
SUFFOLK COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COULD SEE STORMS LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT ABSENT ANY NOTABLE FORCING.
IT WILL BE NOTABLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG
TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE/HOW MUCH IT RAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG
IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME...AND KEPT SE SUFFOLK COUNTY AT SLIGHT CHANCE.
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST.

WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CAPE - 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 825 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE
OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE
NJ AND/OR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NYC CAME IN WITH A HIGH AT OR JUST
ABOVE 90.DEWPOINTS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S...SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD PEAK OUT
IN WARMER AREAS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE FASTER AND MORE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
00Z ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE AREA THU.

MAINLY VFR THIS MRNG...HOWEVER A FEW POCKETS OF STRATUS WILL
PRODUCE SOME MVFR AT TIMES. ANY MVFR BURNS OFF BY 13-15Z EXCEPT
KGON WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT IT COULD LINGER MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IF HZ DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE...AFTN TSTMS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AFT 18Z. THE
ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND W OF
A KHPN-KEWR LINE.

MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES TNGT WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG.

S TO SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST SPEEDS THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVE...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJFK WHERE SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT
EXPECTED.


...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS THRU 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS THRU 14Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB THAT MVFR CIGS LINGER PAST 13Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB THAT MVFR CIGS LINGER PAST 13Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE SCA THERE.

ONCE AGAIN APPEARS THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT TO THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND TO NEW YORK
HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THOSE TWO ZONES FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT
AS WELL. ON THE SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...GUSTS
SHOULD PEAK OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAYBE SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT.

FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW IT APPEARS SEABREEZE SHOULD BE WEAKER...AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY MORE RELAXED...SO EXPECTING SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS.

HAVE ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH DOWN 1 FT TODAY-THURSDAY...AS IT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN OVER FORECASTING WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE BUOYS BY
ABOUT THAT AMOUNT.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THEN...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/4 AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS...DOWN TO ZERO ELSEWHERE.

NOTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
STORM MOTION FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF IT OCCURS OVER AREAS
RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...BC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...BC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270839
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
439 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...SLIDING TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM UPSTATE SC
INTO OH...THAT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS AT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE SOME LIFT OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AS THE SEABREEZE INTERSECTS A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH FORECAST TO SET UP THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH FORECAST CAPES OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT ON
AVERAGE OF 1500-2500 J/KG...25-30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND THE REGION
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 85KT 300 HPA JET...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THIS AREA. BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS GENERALLY 25-50 DO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DISCRETE SUPERCELL...WITH MAINLY MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION. THE SEVERE THREAT IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH SPC/S
AREA OF MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
NOT QUITE SO SURE ABOUT THE MARGINAL RISK OVER NYC...AS SEABREEZE
COULD STABILIZE THINGS BEFORE ANY CONVECTION ARRIVES THERE. FOR
THAT REASON WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND SW CT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NYC.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION...REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
DETAILS.

FOR NOW APPEARS MOST IF NOT ALL OF LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO MARINE
INFLUENCE TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION AT BAY...HOWEVER DUE TO PROXIMITY
DUE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN N MIDDLESEX...N NASSAU AND NW
SUFFOLK COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COULD SEE STORMS LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT ABSENT ANY NOTABLE FORCING.
IT WILL BE NOTABLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG
TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE/HOW MUCH IT RAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG
IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME...AND KEPT SE SUFFOLK COUNTY AT SLIGHT CHANCE.
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST.

WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CAPE - 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 825 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE
OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE
NJ AND/OR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NYC CAME IN WITH A HIGH AT OR JUST
ABOVE 90.DEWPOINTS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S...SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD PEAK OUT
IN WARMER AREAS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE FASTER AND MORE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
00Z ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE AREA THU.

MAINLY VFR THIS MRNG...HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POCKETS OF STRATUS AND BR WHICH COULD BRING MVFR. ANY MVFR BURNS
OFF BY 13-15Z EXCEPT KGON WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT IT
COULD LINGER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...AFTN TSTMS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AFT 18Z. THE
ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND W OF
A KHPN-KEWR LINE.

MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES TNGT WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG.

S TO SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST SPEEDS THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVE...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJFK WHERE SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT
EXPECTED.


...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS THRU 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS THRU 14Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS THRU 14Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE TNGT...MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH SW FLOW.
.THU...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE SCA THERE.

ONCE AGAIN APPEARS THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT TO THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND TO NEW YORK
HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THOSE TWO ZONES FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT
AS WELL. ON THE SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...GUSTS
SHOULD PEAK OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAYBE SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT.

FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW IT APPEARS SEABREEZE SHOULD BE WEAKER...AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY MORE RELAXED...SO EXPECTING SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS.

HAVE ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH DOWN 1 FT TODAY-THURSDAY...AS IT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN OVER FORECASTING WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE BUOYS BY
ABOUT THAT AMOUNT.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THEN...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/4 AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS...DOWN TO ZERO ELSEWHERE.

NOTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
STORM MOTION FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF IT OCCURS OVER AREAS
RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...BC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270839
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
439 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...SLIDING TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM UPSTATE SC
INTO OH...THAT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS AT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE SOME LIFT OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AS THE SEABREEZE INTERSECTS A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH FORECAST TO SET UP THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH FORECAST CAPES OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT ON
AVERAGE OF 1500-2500 J/KG...25-30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND THE REGION
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 85KT 300 HPA JET...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THIS AREA. BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS GENERALLY 25-50 DO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DISCRETE SUPERCELL...WITH MAINLY MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION. THE SEVERE THREAT IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH SPC/S
AREA OF MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
NOT QUITE SO SURE ABOUT THE MARGINAL RISK OVER NYC...AS SEABREEZE
COULD STABILIZE THINGS BEFORE ANY CONVECTION ARRIVES THERE. FOR
THAT REASON WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND SW CT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NYC.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION...REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
DETAILS.

FOR NOW APPEARS MOST IF NOT ALL OF LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO MARINE
INFLUENCE TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION AT BAY...HOWEVER DUE TO PROXIMITY
DUE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN N MIDDLESEX...N NASSAU AND NW
SUFFOLK COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COULD SEE STORMS LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT ABSENT ANY NOTABLE FORCING.
IT WILL BE NOTABLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG
TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE/HOW MUCH IT RAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG
IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME...AND KEPT SE SUFFOLK COUNTY AT SLIGHT CHANCE.
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST.

WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CAPE - 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 825 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE
OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE
NJ AND/OR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NYC CAME IN WITH A HIGH AT OR JUST
ABOVE 90.DEWPOINTS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S...SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD PEAK OUT
IN WARMER AREAS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE FASTER AND MORE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
00Z ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE AREA THU.

MAINLY VFR THIS MRNG...HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POCKETS OF STRATUS AND BR WHICH COULD BRING MVFR. ANY MVFR BURNS
OFF BY 13-15Z EXCEPT KGON WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT IT
COULD LINGER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...AFTN TSTMS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AFT 18Z. THE
ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND W OF
A KHPN-KEWR LINE.

MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES TNGT WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG.

S TO SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST SPEEDS THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVE...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJFK WHERE SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT
EXPECTED.


...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS THRU 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS THRU 14Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS THRU 14Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE TNGT...MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH SW FLOW.
.THU...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE SCA THERE.

ONCE AGAIN APPEARS THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT TO THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND TO NEW YORK
HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THOSE TWO ZONES FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT
AS WELL. ON THE SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...GUSTS
SHOULD PEAK OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAYBE SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT.

FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW IT APPEARS SEABREEZE SHOULD BE WEAKER...AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY MORE RELAXED...SO EXPECTING SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS.

HAVE ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH DOWN 1 FT TODAY-THURSDAY...AS IT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN OVER FORECASTING WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE BUOYS BY
ABOUT THAT AMOUNT.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THEN...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/4 AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS...DOWN TO ZERO ELSEWHERE.

NOTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
STORM MOTION FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF IT OCCURS OVER AREAS
RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...BC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 270839
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
439 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...SLIDING TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM UPSTATE SC
INTO OH...THAT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS AT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE SOME LIFT OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AS THE SEABREEZE INTERSECTS A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH FORECAST TO SET UP THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH FORECAST CAPES OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT ON
AVERAGE OF 1500-2500 J/KG...25-30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND THE REGION
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 85KT 300 HPA JET...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THIS AREA. BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS GENERALLY 25-50 DO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DISCRETE SUPERCELL...WITH MAINLY MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION. THE SEVERE THREAT IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH SPC/S
AREA OF MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
NOT QUITE SO SURE ABOUT THE MARGINAL RISK OVER NYC...AS SEABREEZE
COULD STABILIZE THINGS BEFORE ANY CONVECTION ARRIVES THERE. FOR
THAT REASON WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND SW CT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NYC.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION...REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
DETAILS.

FOR NOW APPEARS MOST IF NOT ALL OF LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO MARINE
INFLUENCE TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION AT BAY...HOWEVER DUE TO PROXIMITY
DUE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN N MIDDLESEX...N NASSAU AND NW
SUFFOLK COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COULD SEE STORMS LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT ABSENT ANY NOTABLE FORCING.
IT WILL BE NOTABLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG
TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE/HOW MUCH IT RAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG
IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME...AND KEPT SE SUFFOLK COUNTY AT SLIGHT CHANCE.
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST.

WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CAPE - 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 825 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE
OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE
NJ AND/OR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NYC CAME IN WITH A HIGH AT OR JUST
ABOVE 90.DEWPOINTS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S...SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD PEAK OUT
IN WARMER AREAS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE FASTER AND MORE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
00Z ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE AREA THU.

MAINLY VFR THIS MRNG...HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POCKETS OF STRATUS AND BR WHICH COULD BRING MVFR. ANY MVFR BURNS
OFF BY 13-15Z EXCEPT KGON WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT IT
COULD LINGER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...AFTN TSTMS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AFT 18Z. THE
ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND W OF
A KHPN-KEWR LINE.

MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES TNGT WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG.

S TO SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST SPEEDS THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVE...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJFK WHERE SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT
EXPECTED.


...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS THRU 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS THRU 14Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS THRU 14Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE TNGT...MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH SW FLOW.
.THU...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE SCA THERE.

ONCE AGAIN APPEARS THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT TO THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND TO NEW YORK
HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THOSE TWO ZONES FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT
AS WELL. ON THE SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...GUSTS
SHOULD PEAK OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAYBE SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT.

FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW IT APPEARS SEABREEZE SHOULD BE WEAKER...AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY MORE RELAXED...SO EXPECTING SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS.

HAVE ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH DOWN 1 FT TODAY-THURSDAY...AS IT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN OVER FORECASTING WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE BUOYS BY
ABOUT THAT AMOUNT.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THEN...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/4 AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS...DOWN TO ZERO ELSEWHERE.

NOTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
STORM MOTION FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF IT OCCURS OVER AREAS
RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...BC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270839
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
439 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...SLIDING TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM UPSTATE SC
INTO OH...THAT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS AT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE SOME LIFT OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AS THE SEABREEZE INTERSECTS A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH FORECAST TO SET UP THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH FORECAST CAPES OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT ON
AVERAGE OF 1500-2500 J/KG...25-30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND THE REGION
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 85KT 300 HPA JET...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THIS AREA. BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS GENERALLY 25-50 DO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DISCRETE SUPERCELL...WITH MAINLY MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION. THE SEVERE THREAT IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH SPC/S
AREA OF MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
NOT QUITE SO SURE ABOUT THE MARGINAL RISK OVER NYC...AS SEABREEZE
COULD STABILIZE THINGS BEFORE ANY CONVECTION ARRIVES THERE. FOR
THAT REASON WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND SW CT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NYC.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION...REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
DETAILS.

FOR NOW APPEARS MOST IF NOT ALL OF LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO MARINE
INFLUENCE TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION AT BAY...HOWEVER DUE TO PROXIMITY
DUE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN N MIDDLESEX...N NASSAU AND NW
SUFFOLK COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COULD SEE STORMS LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT ABSENT ANY NOTABLE FORCING.
IT WILL BE NOTABLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG
TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE/HOW MUCH IT RAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG
IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME...AND KEPT SE SUFFOLK COUNTY AT SLIGHT CHANCE.
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST.

WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CAPE - 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 825 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE
OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE
NJ AND/OR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NYC CAME IN WITH A HIGH AT OR JUST
ABOVE 90.DEWPOINTS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S...SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD PEAK OUT
IN WARMER AREAS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE FASTER AND MORE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
00Z ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE AREA THU.

MAINLY VFR THIS MRNG...HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POCKETS OF STRATUS AND BR WHICH COULD BRING MVFR. ANY MVFR BURNS
OFF BY 13-15Z EXCEPT KGON WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT IT
COULD LINGER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...AFTN TSTMS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AFT 18Z. THE
ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND W OF
A KHPN-KEWR LINE.

MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES TNGT WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG.

S TO SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST SPEEDS THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVE...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJFK WHERE SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT
EXPECTED.


...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS THRU 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS THRU 14Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS THRU 14Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE TNGT...MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH SW FLOW.
.THU...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE SCA THERE.

ONCE AGAIN APPEARS THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT TO THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND TO NEW YORK
HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THOSE TWO ZONES FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT
AS WELL. ON THE SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...GUSTS
SHOULD PEAK OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAYBE SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT.

FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW IT APPEARS SEABREEZE SHOULD BE WEAKER...AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY MORE RELAXED...SO EXPECTING SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS.

HAVE ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH DOWN 1 FT TODAY-THURSDAY...AS IT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN OVER FORECASTING WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE BUOYS BY
ABOUT THAT AMOUNT.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THEN...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/4 AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS...DOWN TO ZERO ELSEWHERE.

NOTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
STORM MOTION FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF IT OCCURS OVER AREAS
RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...BC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 270817
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
417 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...SLIDING TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM UPSTATE SC
INTO OH...THAT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS AT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE SOME LIFT OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AS THE SEABREEZE INTERSECTS A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH FORECAST TO SET UP THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH FORECAST CAPES OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT ON
AVERAGE OF 1500-2500 J/KG...25-30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND THE REGION
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 85KT 300 HPA JET...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THIS AREA. BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS GENERALLY 25-50 DO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DISCRETE SUPERCELL...WITH MAINLY MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION. THE SEVERE THREAT IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH SPC/S
AREA OF MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
NOT QUITE SO SURE ABOUT THE MARGINAL RISK OVER NYC...AS SEABREEZE
COULD STABILIZE THINGS BEFORE ANY CONVECTION ARRIVES THERE. FOR
THAT REASON WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND SW CT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NYC.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION...REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
DETAILS.

FOR NOW APPEARS MOST IF NOT ALL OF LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO MARINE
INFLUENCE TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION AT BAY...HOWEVER DUE TO PROXIMITY
DUE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN N MIDDLESEX...N NASSAU AND NW
SUFFOLK COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COULD SEE STORMS LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT ABSENT ANY NOTABLE FORCING.
IT WILL BE NOTABLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG
TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE/HOW MUCH IT RAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG
IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME...AND KEPT SE SUFFOLK COUNTY AT SLIGHT CHANCE.
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST.

WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CAPE - 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 825 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE
OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE
NJ AND/OR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NYC CAME IN WITH A HIGH AT OR JUST
ABOVE 90.DEWPOINTS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S...SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD PEAK OUT
IN WARMER AREAS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE FASTER AND MORE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
00Z ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE AREA THU.

MAINLY VFR THIS MRNG...HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POCKETS OF STRATUS AND BR WHICH COULD BRING MVFR. ANY MVFR BURNS
OFF BY 13-15Z EXCEPT KGON WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT IT
COULD LINGER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...AFTN TSTMS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AFT 18Z. THE
ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND W OF
A KHPN-KEWR LINE.

MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES TNGT WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG.

SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST SPEEDS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY
EVE...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJFK WHERE SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE WED NGT...MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH SW FLOW.
.THU...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE SCA THERE.

ONCE AGAIN APPEARS THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT TO THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND TO NEW YORK
HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THOSE TWO ZONES FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT
AS WELL. ON THE SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...GUSTS
SHOULD PEAK OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAYBE SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT.

FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW IT APPEARS SEABREEZE SHOULD BE WEAKER...AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY MORE RELAXED...SO EXPECTING SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS.

HAVE ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH DOWN 1 FT TODAY-THURSDAY...AS IT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN OVER FORECASTING WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE BUOYS BY
ABOUT THAT AMOUNT.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THEN...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/4 AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS...DOWN TO ZERO ELSEWHERE.

NOTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
STORM MOTION FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF IT OCCURS OVER AREAS
RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/BC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MALOIT/BC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/BC





000
FXUS61 KOKX 270817
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
417 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...SLIDING TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM UPSTATE SC
INTO OH...THAT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS AT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE SOME LIFT OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AS THE SEABREEZE INTERSECTS A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH FORECAST TO SET UP THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH FORECAST CAPES OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT ON
AVERAGE OF 1500-2500 J/KG...25-30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND THE REGION
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 85KT 300 HPA JET...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THIS AREA. BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS GENERALLY 25-50 DO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DISCRETE SUPERCELL...WITH MAINLY MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION. THE SEVERE THREAT IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH SPC/S
AREA OF MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
NOT QUITE SO SURE ABOUT THE MARGINAL RISK OVER NYC...AS SEABREEZE
COULD STABILIZE THINGS BEFORE ANY CONVECTION ARRIVES THERE. FOR
THAT REASON WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND SW CT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NYC.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION...REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
DETAILS.

FOR NOW APPEARS MOST IF NOT ALL OF LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO MARINE
INFLUENCE TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION AT BAY...HOWEVER DUE TO PROXIMITY
DUE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN N MIDDLESEX...N NASSAU AND NW
SUFFOLK COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COULD SEE STORMS LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT ABSENT ANY NOTABLE FORCING.
IT WILL BE NOTABLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG
TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE/HOW MUCH IT RAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG
IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME...AND KEPT SE SUFFOLK COUNTY AT SLIGHT CHANCE.
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST.

WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CAPE - 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 825 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE
OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE
NJ AND/OR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NYC CAME IN WITH A HIGH AT OR JUST
ABOVE 90.DEWPOINTS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S...SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD PEAK OUT
IN WARMER AREAS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE FASTER AND MORE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
00Z ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE AREA THU.

MAINLY VFR THIS MRNG...HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POCKETS OF STRATUS AND BR WHICH COULD BRING MVFR. ANY MVFR BURNS
OFF BY 13-15Z EXCEPT KGON WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT IT
COULD LINGER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...AFTN TSTMS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AFT 18Z. THE
ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND W OF
A KHPN-KEWR LINE.

MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES TNGT WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG.

SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST SPEEDS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY
EVE...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJFK WHERE SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE WED NGT...MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH SW FLOW.
.THU...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE SCA THERE.

ONCE AGAIN APPEARS THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT TO THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND TO NEW YORK
HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THOSE TWO ZONES FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT
AS WELL. ON THE SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...GUSTS
SHOULD PEAK OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAYBE SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT.

FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW IT APPEARS SEABREEZE SHOULD BE WEAKER...AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY MORE RELAXED...SO EXPECTING SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS.

HAVE ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH DOWN 1 FT TODAY-THURSDAY...AS IT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN OVER FORECASTING WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE BUOYS BY
ABOUT THAT AMOUNT.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THEN...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/4 AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS...DOWN TO ZERO ELSEWHERE.

NOTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
STORM MOTION FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF IT OCCURS OVER AREAS
RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/BC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MALOIT/BC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/BC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270817
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
417 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...SLIDING TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM UPSTATE SC
INTO OH...THAT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS AT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE SOME LIFT OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AS THE SEABREEZE INTERSECTS A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH FORECAST TO SET UP THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH FORECAST CAPES OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT ON
AVERAGE OF 1500-2500 J/KG...25-30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND THE REGION
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 85KT 300 HPA JET...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THIS AREA. BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS GENERALLY 25-50 DO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DISCRETE SUPERCELL...WITH MAINLY MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION. THE SEVERE THREAT IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH SPC/S
AREA OF MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
NOT QUITE SO SURE ABOUT THE MARGINAL RISK OVER NYC...AS SEABREEZE
COULD STABILIZE THINGS BEFORE ANY CONVECTION ARRIVES THERE. FOR
THAT REASON WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND SW CT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NYC.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION...REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
DETAILS.

FOR NOW APPEARS MOST IF NOT ALL OF LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO MARINE
INFLUENCE TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION AT BAY...HOWEVER DUE TO PROXIMITY
DUE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN N MIDDLESEX...N NASSAU AND NW
SUFFOLK COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COULD SEE STORMS LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT ABSENT ANY NOTABLE FORCING.
IT WILL BE NOTABLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG
TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE/HOW MUCH IT RAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG
IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME...AND KEPT SE SUFFOLK COUNTY AT SLIGHT CHANCE.
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST.

WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CAPE - 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 825 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE
OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE
NJ AND/OR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NYC CAME IN WITH A HIGH AT OR JUST
ABOVE 90.DEWPOINTS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S...SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD PEAK OUT
IN WARMER AREAS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE FASTER AND MORE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
00Z ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE AREA THU.

MAINLY VFR THIS MRNG...HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POCKETS OF STRATUS AND BR WHICH COULD BRING MVFR. ANY MVFR BURNS
OFF BY 13-15Z EXCEPT KGON WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT IT
COULD LINGER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...AFTN TSTMS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AFT 18Z. THE
ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND W OF
A KHPN-KEWR LINE.

MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES TNGT WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG.

SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST SPEEDS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY
EVE...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJFK WHERE SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE WED NGT...MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH SW FLOW.
.THU...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE SCA THERE.

ONCE AGAIN APPEARS THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT TO THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND TO NEW YORK
HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THOSE TWO ZONES FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT
AS WELL. ON THE SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...GUSTS
SHOULD PEAK OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAYBE SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT.

FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW IT APPEARS SEABREEZE SHOULD BE WEAKER...AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY MORE RELAXED...SO EXPECTING SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS.

HAVE ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH DOWN 1 FT TODAY-THURSDAY...AS IT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN OVER FORECASTING WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE BUOYS BY
ABOUT THAT AMOUNT.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THEN...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/4 AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS...DOWN TO ZERO ELSEWHERE.

NOTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
STORM MOTION FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF IT OCCURS OVER AREAS
RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/BC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MALOIT/BC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/BC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270607
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
207 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
LOOKS VERY WEAK.

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY WHERE
DEWPOINTS SPIKED INTO THE 70S AFTER THE SHOWERS EXITED. WINDS ARE
CALM AND SHOULD REMAIN THIS WAY...SO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST UP
THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TOWARDS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS
A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THEN.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH
ITS WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE
NAM...BUT IT HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES
LEADING TO HIGHER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL
BREAK LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUB TROPICAL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE AREA THU.

MAINLY VFR THIS MRNG...HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POCKETS OF STRATUS AND BR WHICH COULD BRING MVFR. ANY MVFR BURNS
OFF BY 13-15Z EXCEPT KGON WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT IT
COULD LINGER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...AFTN TSTMS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AFT 18Z. THE
ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND W OF
A KHPN-KEWR LINE.

MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES TNGT WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG.

SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST SPEEDS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY
EVE...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJFK WHERE SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE WED NGT...MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH SW FLOW.
.THU...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE GREAT SOUTH BAY...FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT HAVE COME TO AN END...SO WILL ALLOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND TO EXPIRE
AS SCHEDULED. OTHERWISE...THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT 44065 WILL
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 5 FT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/DW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 270607
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
207 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
LOOKS VERY WEAK.

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY WHERE
DEWPOINTS SPIKED INTO THE 70S AFTER THE SHOWERS EXITED. WINDS ARE
CALM AND SHOULD REMAIN THIS WAY...SO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST UP
THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TOWARDS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS
A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THEN.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH
ITS WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE
NAM...BUT IT HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES
LEADING TO HIGHER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL
BREAK LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUB TROPICAL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE AREA THU.

MAINLY VFR THIS MRNG...HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POCKETS OF STRATUS AND BR WHICH COULD BRING MVFR. ANY MVFR BURNS
OFF BY 13-15Z EXCEPT KGON WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT IT
COULD LINGER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...AFTN TSTMS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AFT 18Z. THE
ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND W OF
A KHPN-KEWR LINE.

MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES TNGT WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG.

SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST SPEEDS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY
EVE...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJFK WHERE SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE WED NGT...MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH SW FLOW.
.THU...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE GREAT SOUTH BAY...FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT HAVE COME TO AN END...SO WILL ALLOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND TO EXPIRE
AS SCHEDULED. OTHERWISE...THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT 44065 WILL
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 5 FT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/DW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270607
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
207 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
LOOKS VERY WEAK.

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY WHERE
DEWPOINTS SPIKED INTO THE 70S AFTER THE SHOWERS EXITED. WINDS ARE
CALM AND SHOULD REMAIN THIS WAY...SO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST UP
THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TOWARDS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS
A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THEN.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH
ITS WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE
NAM...BUT IT HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES
LEADING TO HIGHER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL
BREAK LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUB TROPICAL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE AREA THU.

MAINLY VFR THIS MRNG...HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POCKETS OF STRATUS AND BR WHICH COULD BRING MVFR. ANY MVFR BURNS
OFF BY 13-15Z EXCEPT KGON WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT IT
COULD LINGER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...AFTN TSTMS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AFT 18Z. THE
ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND W OF
A KHPN-KEWR LINE.

MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES TNGT WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG.

SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST SPEEDS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY
EVE...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJFK WHERE SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE WED NGT...MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH SW FLOW.
.THU...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE GREAT SOUTH BAY...FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT HAVE COME TO AN END...SO WILL ALLOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND TO EXPIRE
AS SCHEDULED. OTHERWISE...THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT 44065 WILL
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 5 FT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/DW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270359
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1159 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
LOOKS VERY WEAK.

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY WHERE
DEWPOINTS SPIKED INTO THE 70S AFTER THE SHOWERS EXITED. WINDS ARE
CALM AND SHOULD REMAIN THIS WAY...SO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST UP
THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TOWARDS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS
A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THEN.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH
ITS WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE
NAM...BUT IT HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES
LEADING TO HIGHER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL
BREAK LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUB TROPICAL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A CHANCE MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
LOCALLY MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE NEW YORK CITY TERMINALS AND
NORTH AND WEST. THERE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

WIND WILL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BECOMING
GUSTY...UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST...DURING THE AFTERNOON.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM MAINLY FROM AROUND
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...AND NORTH AND WEST. STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY
LATE AT NIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS 15-
20 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE GREAT SOUTH BAY...FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT HAVE COME TO AN END...SO WILL ALLOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND TO EXPIRE
AS SCHEDULED. OTHERWISE...THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT 44065 WILL
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 5 FT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MALOIT/DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270359
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1159 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
LOOKS VERY WEAK.

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY WHERE
DEWPOINTS SPIKED INTO THE 70S AFTER THE SHOWERS EXITED. WINDS ARE
CALM AND SHOULD REMAIN THIS WAY...SO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST UP
THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TOWARDS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS
A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THEN.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH
ITS WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE
NAM...BUT IT HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES
LEADING TO HIGHER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL
BREAK LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUB TROPICAL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A CHANCE MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
LOCALLY MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE NEW YORK CITY TERMINALS AND
NORTH AND WEST. THERE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

WIND WILL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BECOMING
GUSTY...UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST...DURING THE AFTERNOON.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM MAINLY FROM AROUND
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...AND NORTH AND WEST. STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY
LATE AT NIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS 15-
20 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE GREAT SOUTH BAY...FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT HAVE COME TO AN END...SO WILL ALLOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND TO EXPIRE
AS SCHEDULED. OTHERWISE...THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT 44065 WILL
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 5 FT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MALOIT/DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 270359
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1159 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
LOOKS VERY WEAK.

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY WHERE
DEWPOINTS SPIKED INTO THE 70S AFTER THE SHOWERS EXITED. WINDS ARE
CALM AND SHOULD REMAIN THIS WAY...SO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST UP
THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TOWARDS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS
A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THEN.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH
ITS WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE
NAM...BUT IT HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES
LEADING TO HIGHER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL
BREAK LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUB TROPICAL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A CHANCE MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
LOCALLY MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE NEW YORK CITY TERMINALS AND
NORTH AND WEST. THERE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

WIND WILL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BECOMING
GUSTY...UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST...DURING THE AFTERNOON.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM MAINLY FROM AROUND
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...AND NORTH AND WEST. STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY
LATE AT NIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS 15-
20 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE GREAT SOUTH BAY...FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT HAVE COME TO AN END...SO WILL ALLOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND TO EXPIRE
AS SCHEDULED. OTHERWISE...THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT 44065 WILL
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 5 FT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MALOIT/DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 270256
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1056 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
LOOKS VERY WEAK.

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY WHERE
DEWPOINTS SPIKED INTO THE 70S AFTER THE SHOWERS EXITED. WINDS ARE
CALM AND SHOULD REMAIN THIS WAY...SO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST UP
THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TOWARDS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW
CHC THAT FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SKY CONDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THEN.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SBCAPE WITH ITS WARMER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE NAM...BUT IT
HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES LEADING TO HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS
HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUBTROP RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN
WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A CHANCE MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
LOCALLY MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE NEW YORK CITY TERMINALS AND
NORTH AND WEST. THERE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

WIND WILL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BECOMING
GUSTY...UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST...DURING THE AFTERNOON.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM MAINLY FROM AROUND
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...AND NORTH AND WEST. STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY
LATE AT NIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS 15-
20 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA ON NY HARBOR AS GUSTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW
ADVSY CRITERIA AT OBS SURROUNDING THE WATER. MARGINAL GUSTS
CONTINUE AT MESONET OBS BORDERING THE GREAT SOUTH BAY AS WELL AS
BUOY 44069 ON THE BAY ITSELF...SO MAINTAINED THE ADVSY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS CONTINUES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT 44065 WILL DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW. SEAS WILL ALSO
BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 5 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 270256
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1056 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
LOOKS VERY WEAK.

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY WHERE
DEWPOINTS SPIKED INTO THE 70S AFTER THE SHOWERS EXITED. WINDS ARE
CALM AND SHOULD REMAIN THIS WAY...SO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST UP
THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TOWARDS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW
CHC THAT FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SKY CONDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THEN.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SBCAPE WITH ITS WARMER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE NAM...BUT IT
HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES LEADING TO HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS
HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUBTROP RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN
WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A CHANCE MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
LOCALLY MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE NEW YORK CITY TERMINALS AND
NORTH AND WEST. THERE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

WIND WILL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BECOMING
GUSTY...UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST...DURING THE AFTERNOON.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM MAINLY FROM AROUND
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...AND NORTH AND WEST. STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY
LATE AT NIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS 15-
20 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA ON NY HARBOR AS GUSTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW
ADVSY CRITERIA AT OBS SURROUNDING THE WATER. MARGINAL GUSTS
CONTINUE AT MESONET OBS BORDERING THE GREAT SOUTH BAY AS WELL AS
BUOY 44069 ON THE BAY ITSELF...SO MAINTAINED THE ADVSY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS CONTINUES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT 44065 WILL DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW. SEAS WILL ALSO
BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 5 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270028
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
828 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WEAKENING SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES
THIS EVENING...WITH NO OTHER ACTIVITY IMMINENTLY THREATENING THE
AREA. MINOR UPDATES TO THE GRIDS TO REMOVE POPS UNTIL AFT 06Z WHEN
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDE COULD TRIGGER A SHOWER OR TSTM. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS US DRY...BUT FEEL IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT A SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. THE GFS IS THE WETTEST MODEL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND
IS LIKELY OVERDOING QPF.

TEMPS ARE NOT COOLING AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST...SO ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED HERE AS WELL.

PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW CHC
THAT FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SKY CONDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THEN.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SBCAPE WITH ITS WARMER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE NAM...BUT IT
HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES LEADING TO HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS
HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUBTROP RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN
WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A CHANCE MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY
FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE NEW YORK CITY TERMINALS AND
NORTH AND WEST. THERE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

WIND WILL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BECOMING
GUSTY...UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST...DURING THE AFTERNOON.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 25 KT END AROUND
04Z...AND MAY END A LITTLE EARLIER. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MARGINAL
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...IN FOG...DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z AND
CONTINUING TO 12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. LOW CHANCE OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 10Z TO 12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. LOW
CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE MAY BE A FEW TO SCATTERED STRATUS AROUND
AFTER 09Z. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL NOT DEVELOP.
LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE MAY BE A FEW TO SCATTERED STRATUS AROUND
AFTER 09Z. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL NOT DEVELOP.
LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE MAY BE A FEW TO SCATTERED STRATUS AROUND
AFTER 09Z. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP 10Z TO 12Z. LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS UP TO 22 KT END AROUND
04Z...AND MAY END A LITTLE EARLIER. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MARGINAL
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...IN FOG...DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z AND
CONTINUING TO 12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM MAINLY FROM AROUND
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...AND NORTH AND WEST. STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY
LATE AT NIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS 15-
20 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT ARE LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING AND
THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR 5 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SCA ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLIER IF THE
STRONGER WINDS DO NOT PAN OUT THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH
SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270028
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
828 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WEAKENING SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES
THIS EVENING...WITH NO OTHER ACTIVITY IMMINENTLY THREATENING THE
AREA. MINOR UPDATES TO THE GRIDS TO REMOVE POPS UNTIL AFT 06Z WHEN
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDE COULD TRIGGER A SHOWER OR TSTM. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS US DRY...BUT FEEL IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT A SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. THE GFS IS THE WETTEST MODEL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND
IS LIKELY OVERDOING QPF.

TEMPS ARE NOT COOLING AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST...SO ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED HERE AS WELL.

PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW CHC
THAT FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SKY CONDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THEN.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SBCAPE WITH ITS WARMER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE NAM...BUT IT
HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES LEADING TO HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS
HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUBTROP RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN
WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A CHANCE MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY
FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE NEW YORK CITY TERMINALS AND
NORTH AND WEST. THERE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

WIND WILL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BECOMING
GUSTY...UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST...DURING THE AFTERNOON.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 25 KT END AROUND
04Z...AND MAY END A LITTLE EARLIER. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MARGINAL
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...IN FOG...DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z AND
CONTINUING TO 12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. LOW CHANCE OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 10Z TO 12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. LOW
CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE MAY BE A FEW TO SCATTERED STRATUS AROUND
AFTER 09Z. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL NOT DEVELOP.
LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE MAY BE A FEW TO SCATTERED STRATUS AROUND
AFTER 09Z. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL NOT DEVELOP.
LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE MAY BE A FEW TO SCATTERED STRATUS AROUND
AFTER 09Z. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP 10Z TO 12Z. LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS UP TO 22 KT END AROUND
04Z...AND MAY END A LITTLE EARLIER. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MARGINAL
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...IN FOG...DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z AND
CONTINUING TO 12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM MAINLY FROM AROUND
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...AND NORTH AND WEST. STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY
LATE AT NIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS 15-
20 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT ARE LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING AND
THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR 5 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SCA ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLIER IF THE
STRONGER WINDS DO NOT PAN OUT THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH
SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 270028
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
828 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WEAKENING SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES
THIS EVENING...WITH NO OTHER ACTIVITY IMMINENTLY THREATENING THE
AREA. MINOR UPDATES TO THE GRIDS TO REMOVE POPS UNTIL AFT 06Z WHEN
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDE COULD TRIGGER A SHOWER OR TSTM. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS US DRY...BUT FEEL IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT A SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. THE GFS IS THE WETTEST MODEL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND
IS LIKELY OVERDOING QPF.

TEMPS ARE NOT COOLING AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST...SO ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED HERE AS WELL.

PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW CHC
THAT FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SKY CONDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THEN.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SBCAPE WITH ITS WARMER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE NAM...BUT IT
HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES LEADING TO HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS
HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUBTROP RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN
WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A CHANCE MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY
FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE NEW YORK CITY TERMINALS AND
NORTH AND WEST. THERE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

WIND WILL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BECOMING
GUSTY...UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST...DURING THE AFTERNOON.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 25 KT END AROUND
04Z...AND MAY END A LITTLE EARLIER. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MARGINAL
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...IN FOG...DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z AND
CONTINUING TO 12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. LOW CHANCE OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 10Z TO 12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. LOW
CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE MAY BE A FEW TO SCATTERED STRATUS AROUND
AFTER 09Z. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL NOT DEVELOP.
LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE MAY BE A FEW TO SCATTERED STRATUS AROUND
AFTER 09Z. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL NOT DEVELOP.
LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE MAY BE A FEW TO SCATTERED STRATUS AROUND
AFTER 09Z. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP 10Z TO 12Z. LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS UP TO 22 KT END AROUND
04Z...AND MAY END A LITTLE EARLIER. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MARGINAL
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...IN FOG...DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z AND
CONTINUING TO 12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM MAINLY FROM AROUND
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...AND NORTH AND WEST. STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY
LATE AT NIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS 15-
20 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT ARE LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING AND
THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR 5 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SCA ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLIER IF THE
STRONGER WINDS DO NOT PAN OUT THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH
SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 270028
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
828 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WEAKENING SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES
THIS EVENING...WITH NO OTHER ACTIVITY IMMINENTLY THREATENING THE
AREA. MINOR UPDATES TO THE GRIDS TO REMOVE POPS UNTIL AFT 06Z WHEN
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDE COULD TRIGGER A SHOWER OR TSTM. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS US DRY...BUT FEEL IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT A SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. THE GFS IS THE WETTEST MODEL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND
IS LIKELY OVERDOING QPF.

TEMPS ARE NOT COOLING AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST...SO ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED HERE AS WELL.

PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW CHC
THAT FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SKY CONDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THEN.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SBCAPE WITH ITS WARMER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE NAM...BUT IT
HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES LEADING TO HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS
HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUBTROP RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN
WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A CHANCE MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY
FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE NEW YORK CITY TERMINALS AND
NORTH AND WEST. THERE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

WIND WILL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BECOMING
GUSTY...UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST...DURING THE AFTERNOON.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 25 KT END AROUND
04Z...AND MAY END A LITTLE EARLIER. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MARGINAL
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...IN FOG...DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z AND
CONTINUING TO 12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. LOW CHANCE OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 10Z TO 12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. LOW
CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE MAY BE A FEW TO SCATTERED STRATUS AROUND
AFTER 09Z. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL NOT DEVELOP.
LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE MAY BE A FEW TO SCATTERED STRATUS AROUND
AFTER 09Z. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL NOT DEVELOP.
LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE MAY BE A FEW TO SCATTERED STRATUS AROUND
AFTER 09Z. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP 10Z TO 12Z. LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS UP TO 22 KT END AROUND
04Z...AND MAY END A LITTLE EARLIER. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MARGINAL
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...IN FOG...DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z AND
CONTINUING TO 12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM MAINLY FROM AROUND
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...AND NORTH AND WEST. STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY
LATE AT NIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS 15-
20 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT ARE LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING AND
THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR 5 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SCA ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLIER IF THE
STRONGER WINDS DO NOT PAN OUT THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH
SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 261959
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND ABOUT 500
J/KG OF MLCAPE PER 19Z SPC MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THE FAR NW
INTERIOR. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS
REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FORCING IS RATHER WEAK...MAINLY
FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. CONVERGENCE FROM THE SEA BREEZE MOVING
INTO THE INTERIOR MAY ALSO TRIGGER A SHOWER OR A STORM ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN CT. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW ANY ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...WITH
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING OVER THE EAST COAST AND MARITIME INFLUENCE
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...NO SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE OVERHEAD AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS US DRY...BUT FEEL IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT A SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. THE GFS IS THE WETTEST MODEL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND
IS LIKELY OVERDOING QPF.

PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING. THE FOG MAY BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT REMAINS ON UNCERTAIN HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SBCAPE WITH ITS WARMER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE NAM...BUT IT
HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES LEADING TO HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS
HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUBTROP RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN
WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE KSWF WHERE THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BEFORE EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION IS PRETTY LOW.

THE CONTINUED S-SW FLOW OF 10-15 KT GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WILL
LOWER THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE
CATEGORY FORECAST AND MODERATE WITH WINDS. HOWEVER...THE
CONFIDENCE FOR CATEGORY LOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG AS WELL AS SOME SHOWERS.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WHERE THE LOWERING OF CATEGORY
COULD START/END 2-3 HRS DIFFERENT FROM FORECAST AND THE CATEGORY
ITSELF COULD BE 1-2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM OBSERVED AT TIMES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THU AND SAT. WIND GUSTS 15-20
KT THU AFTN AND SAT AFTN.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSTM.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLATED
TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT ARE LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING AND
THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR 5 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SCA ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLIER IF THE
STRONGER WINDS DO NOT PAN OUT THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH
SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 261959
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND ABOUT 500
J/KG OF MLCAPE PER 19Z SPC MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THE FAR NW
INTERIOR. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS
REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FORCING IS RATHER WEAK...MAINLY
FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. CONVERGENCE FROM THE SEA BREEZE MOVING
INTO THE INTERIOR MAY ALSO TRIGGER A SHOWER OR A STORM ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN CT. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW ANY ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...WITH
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING OVER THE EAST COAST AND MARITIME INFLUENCE
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...NO SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE OVERHEAD AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS US DRY...BUT FEEL IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT A SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. THE GFS IS THE WETTEST MODEL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND
IS LIKELY OVERDOING QPF.

PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING. THE FOG MAY BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT REMAINS ON UNCERTAIN HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SBCAPE WITH ITS WARMER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE NAM...BUT IT
HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES LEADING TO HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS
HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUBTROP RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN
WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE KSWF WHERE THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BEFORE EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION IS PRETTY LOW.

THE CONTINUED S-SW FLOW OF 10-15 KT GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WILL
LOWER THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE
CATEGORY FORECAST AND MODERATE WITH WINDS. HOWEVER...THE
CONFIDENCE FOR CATEGORY LOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG AS WELL AS SOME SHOWERS.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WHERE THE LOWERING OF CATEGORY
COULD START/END 2-3 HRS DIFFERENT FROM FORECAST AND THE CATEGORY
ITSELF COULD BE 1-2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM OBSERVED AT TIMES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THU AND SAT. WIND GUSTS 15-20
KT THU AFTN AND SAT AFTN.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSTM.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLATED
TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT ARE LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING AND
THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR 5 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SCA ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLIER IF THE
STRONGER WINDS DO NOT PAN OUT THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH
SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 261819
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
219 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...AND SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST DATABASE THIS UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO UPDATE TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

THE REGION REMAINS ON N/W PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION FOR LATER TODAY IS IF NW ZONES FAR ENOUGH REMOVED
FROM THE RIDGE TO GET ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE GFS/NAM
ARGUE YES...THE CMC/ECMWF ARGUE NO.

A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION IS LACKING TODAY ACROSS NW ZONES...BUT
EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG SEABREEZE TO PENETRATE WELL INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY COULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION OVER NW INTERIOR ZONES IF FORECAST CAPE OF 500-1500
J/KG CAPE IS REALIZED (NO CAPE IN ECMWF). SURFACE BASED CAPE HAS
BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY...BUT BEST INSTABILITY AND
LIFT ARE LIKELY TO STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR INTERIOR
ZONES. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NW
ZONES...WITH CHANCE POPS W ORANGE COUNTY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 850 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CORE OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE S/E
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CMC/ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY...WITH NO FORCING.
WHILE THE GFS/NAM BRING A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE OVER MAINLY
N/W PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE.

GIVEN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT WOULD EXPECT S SHORE
LOCATIONS TO GO FIRST...AFTER SUNSET...WITH INTERIOR AREAS
CLOUDING UP AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO
REACH NW ZONES...IF THEY DO AT ALL...NOTING WEAKER IF NOT NON-
EXISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KMGJ/KSWF. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WELL. IF
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS MATERIALIZE...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY FOG UNTIL
AFTER THEY PASS. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WHEN YOU HAVE MARINE
INDUCED STRATUS...IS IT IS NEVER CERTAIN WHETHER YOU WILL GET FOG
AS WELL...SO RESTRICTED FOG TO PATCHY AND AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
FORECAST ANY LOCALLY DENSE FOG...THOUGH CANNOT RULE IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN ZONES WILL BE AIDED
BY FORMATION OF A LEE/THERMAL TROUGH...PASSING OF A 30-35 KT 950
HPA JET...AND MODEL AVERAGE FORECAST CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
BASED ON THIS HAVE 40-50 POPS OVER NW ZONES BY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCE POPS INTO NYC/SW CT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. AS IS
ALWAYS THE QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR...IS HOW LONG DO STORMS STAY
TOGETHER AS THEY HEAD EAST INTO THE MARINE LAYER. WITH BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE MUCH GREATER THAN
40...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
THE HIGH END OF MODEL FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED...THEN SOME
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 900
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EASE THRU THE REGION WED NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND CENTRAL PA AT THIS
POINT PER THE NAM AND GFS. A DECENT RIBBON OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THU. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD RESIDE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WRN CT. THE
PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL KEEP THE COASTS FAIRLY STABLE. THE
CITY WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT REGION...WITH THE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ATTEMPTING TO STABILIZE THE AREA AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS PER THE 00Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER MARITIME INFLUENCED
AIRMASS. AS A RESULT THE BOUNDARY MAY NEVER EVEN MAKE IT TO ERN
AREAS. SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI AS THE PRES FALLS N OF THE REGION.
THIS FALLING PRES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH ON SAT BEFORE STALLING S OF THE AREA
LATE SUN INTO TUE. GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SAT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND CHANCES WILL TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT SUN AND MON.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP THE
CWA FIRMLY IN THE COLDER AIRMASS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES AS OPPOSED TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL
FAR OUT AND EVEN A FRONTAL POSITION JUST S OF THE CWA COULD ALLOW
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE KSWF THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION IS PRETTY
LOW.

THE CONTINUED S-SW FLOW OF 10-15 KT GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WILL
LOWER THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE
CATEGORY FORECAST AND MODERATE WITH WINDS. HOWEVER...THE
CONFIDENCE FOR CATEGORY LOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG AS WELL AS SOME SHOWERS.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WHERE THE LOWERING OF CATEGORY
COULD START/END 2-3 HRS DIFFERENT FROM FORECAST AND THE CATEGORY
ITSELF COULD BE 1-2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM OBSERVED AT TIMES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THU AND SAT. WIND GUSTS 15-20
KT THU AFTN AND SAT AFTN.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSTM.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLATED
TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KT HELPING
TO KEEP SEAS AT AROUND 5 FT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SCA FOR NY HARBOR
AND THE S SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 16Z TODAY THROUGH 4Z
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WITH THE SEABREEZE. ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT..EXPECT GUSTS TO TOP
OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHAT FORMS
COULD ALSO JUST END UP BEING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. TO SOON TO
TELL...SO WENT WITH PATCHY FOG LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO 1-3NM.

FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON WEDNESDAY...ITS LIKELY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/TODAY WITH SCA SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ALL
DAY...AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES/NY HARBOR/S
SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME.

SCA SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WED NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THRU THE DAY ON THU. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN AND S
SHORE BAYS...AND BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. LIGHTER FLOW THU
THRU FRI NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN. AS THE FRONT STALLS S OF THE WATERS
SUN AND MON...NE FLOW WOULD DRIVE SEAS TO 5 FT OR MORE ON THE
OCEAN...WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION THAT
FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF STORMS...COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT/DS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 261819
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
219 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...AND SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST DATABASE THIS UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO UPDATE TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

THE REGION REMAINS ON N/W PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION FOR LATER TODAY IS IF NW ZONES FAR ENOUGH REMOVED
FROM THE RIDGE TO GET ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE GFS/NAM
ARGUE YES...THE CMC/ECMWF ARGUE NO.

A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION IS LACKING TODAY ACROSS NW ZONES...BUT
EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG SEABREEZE TO PENETRATE WELL INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY COULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION OVER NW INTERIOR ZONES IF FORECAST CAPE OF 500-1500
J/KG CAPE IS REALIZED (NO CAPE IN ECMWF). SURFACE BASED CAPE HAS
BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY...BUT BEST INSTABILITY AND
LIFT ARE LIKELY TO STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR INTERIOR
ZONES. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NW
ZONES...WITH CHANCE POPS W ORANGE COUNTY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 850 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CORE OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE S/E
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CMC/ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY...WITH NO FORCING.
WHILE THE GFS/NAM BRING A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE OVER MAINLY
N/W PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE.

GIVEN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT WOULD EXPECT S SHORE
LOCATIONS TO GO FIRST...AFTER SUNSET...WITH INTERIOR AREAS
CLOUDING UP AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO
REACH NW ZONES...IF THEY DO AT ALL...NOTING WEAKER IF NOT NON-
EXISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KMGJ/KSWF. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WELL. IF
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS MATERIALIZE...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY FOG UNTIL
AFTER THEY PASS. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WHEN YOU HAVE MARINE
INDUCED STRATUS...IS IT IS NEVER CERTAIN WHETHER YOU WILL GET FOG
AS WELL...SO RESTRICTED FOG TO PATCHY AND AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
FORECAST ANY LOCALLY DENSE FOG...THOUGH CANNOT RULE IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN ZONES WILL BE AIDED
BY FORMATION OF A LEE/THERMAL TROUGH...PASSING OF A 30-35 KT 950
HPA JET...AND MODEL AVERAGE FORECAST CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
BASED ON THIS HAVE 40-50 POPS OVER NW ZONES BY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCE POPS INTO NYC/SW CT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. AS IS
ALWAYS THE QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR...IS HOW LONG DO STORMS STAY
TOGETHER AS THEY HEAD EAST INTO THE MARINE LAYER. WITH BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE MUCH GREATER THAN
40...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
THE HIGH END OF MODEL FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED...THEN SOME
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 900
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EASE THRU THE REGION WED NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND CENTRAL PA AT THIS
POINT PER THE NAM AND GFS. A DECENT RIBBON OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THU. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD RESIDE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WRN CT. THE
PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL KEEP THE COASTS FAIRLY STABLE. THE
CITY WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT REGION...WITH THE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ATTEMPTING TO STABILIZE THE AREA AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS PER THE 00Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER MARITIME INFLUENCED
AIRMASS. AS A RESULT THE BOUNDARY MAY NEVER EVEN MAKE IT TO ERN
AREAS. SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI AS THE PRES FALLS N OF THE REGION.
THIS FALLING PRES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH ON SAT BEFORE STALLING S OF THE AREA
LATE SUN INTO TUE. GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SAT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND CHANCES WILL TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT SUN AND MON.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP THE
CWA FIRMLY IN THE COLDER AIRMASS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES AS OPPOSED TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL
FAR OUT AND EVEN A FRONTAL POSITION JUST S OF THE CWA COULD ALLOW
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE KSWF THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION IS PRETTY
LOW.

THE CONTINUED S-SW FLOW OF 10-15 KT GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WILL
LOWER THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE
CATEGORY FORECAST AND MODERATE WITH WINDS. HOWEVER...THE
CONFIDENCE FOR CATEGORY LOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG AS WELL AS SOME SHOWERS.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WHERE THE LOWERING OF CATEGORY
COULD START/END 2-3 HRS DIFFERENT FROM FORECAST AND THE CATEGORY
ITSELF COULD BE 1-2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM OBSERVED AT TIMES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THU AND SAT. WIND GUSTS 15-20
KT THU AFTN AND SAT AFTN.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSTM.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLATED
TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KT HELPING
TO KEEP SEAS AT AROUND 5 FT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SCA FOR NY HARBOR
AND THE S SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 16Z TODAY THROUGH 4Z
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WITH THE SEABREEZE. ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT..EXPECT GUSTS TO TOP
OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHAT FORMS
COULD ALSO JUST END UP BEING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. TO SOON TO
TELL...SO WENT WITH PATCHY FOG LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO 1-3NM.

FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON WEDNESDAY...ITS LIKELY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/TODAY WITH SCA SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ALL
DAY...AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES/NY HARBOR/S
SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME.

SCA SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WED NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THRU THE DAY ON THU. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN AND S
SHORE BAYS...AND BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. LIGHTER FLOW THU
THRU FRI NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN. AS THE FRONT STALLS S OF THE WATERS
SUN AND MON...NE FLOW WOULD DRIVE SEAS TO 5 FT OR MORE ON THE
OCEAN...WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION THAT
FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF STORMS...COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT/DS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 261819
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
219 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...AND SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST DATABASE THIS UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO UPDATE TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

THE REGION REMAINS ON N/W PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION FOR LATER TODAY IS IF NW ZONES FAR ENOUGH REMOVED
FROM THE RIDGE TO GET ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE GFS/NAM
ARGUE YES...THE CMC/ECMWF ARGUE NO.

A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION IS LACKING TODAY ACROSS NW ZONES...BUT
EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG SEABREEZE TO PENETRATE WELL INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY COULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION OVER NW INTERIOR ZONES IF FORECAST CAPE OF 500-1500
J/KG CAPE IS REALIZED (NO CAPE IN ECMWF). SURFACE BASED CAPE HAS
BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY...BUT BEST INSTABILITY AND
LIFT ARE LIKELY TO STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR INTERIOR
ZONES. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NW
ZONES...WITH CHANCE POPS W ORANGE COUNTY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 850 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CORE OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE S/E
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CMC/ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY...WITH NO FORCING.
WHILE THE GFS/NAM BRING A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE OVER MAINLY
N/W PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE.

GIVEN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT WOULD EXPECT S SHORE
LOCATIONS TO GO FIRST...AFTER SUNSET...WITH INTERIOR AREAS
CLOUDING UP AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO
REACH NW ZONES...IF THEY DO AT ALL...NOTING WEAKER IF NOT NON-
EXISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KMGJ/KSWF. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WELL. IF
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS MATERIALIZE...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY FOG UNTIL
AFTER THEY PASS. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WHEN YOU HAVE MARINE
INDUCED STRATUS...IS IT IS NEVER CERTAIN WHETHER YOU WILL GET FOG
AS WELL...SO RESTRICTED FOG TO PATCHY AND AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
FORECAST ANY LOCALLY DENSE FOG...THOUGH CANNOT RULE IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN ZONES WILL BE AIDED
BY FORMATION OF A LEE/THERMAL TROUGH...PASSING OF A 30-35 KT 950
HPA JET...AND MODEL AVERAGE FORECAST CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
BASED ON THIS HAVE 40-50 POPS OVER NW ZONES BY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCE POPS INTO NYC/SW CT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. AS IS
ALWAYS THE QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR...IS HOW LONG DO STORMS STAY
TOGETHER AS THEY HEAD EAST INTO THE MARINE LAYER. WITH BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE MUCH GREATER THAN
40...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
THE HIGH END OF MODEL FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED...THEN SOME
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 900
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EASE THRU THE REGION WED NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND CENTRAL PA AT THIS
POINT PER THE NAM AND GFS. A DECENT RIBBON OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THU. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD RESIDE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WRN CT. THE
PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL KEEP THE COASTS FAIRLY STABLE. THE
CITY WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT REGION...WITH THE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ATTEMPTING TO STABILIZE THE AREA AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS PER THE 00Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER MARITIME INFLUENCED
AIRMASS. AS A RESULT THE BOUNDARY MAY NEVER EVEN MAKE IT TO ERN
AREAS. SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI AS THE PRES FALLS N OF THE REGION.
THIS FALLING PRES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH ON SAT BEFORE STALLING S OF THE AREA
LATE SUN INTO TUE. GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SAT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND CHANCES WILL TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT SUN AND MON.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP THE
CWA FIRMLY IN THE COLDER AIRMASS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES AS OPPOSED TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL
FAR OUT AND EVEN A FRONTAL POSITION JUST S OF THE CWA COULD ALLOW
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE KSWF THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION IS PRETTY
LOW.

THE CONTINUED S-SW FLOW OF 10-15 KT GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WILL
LOWER THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE
CATEGORY FORECAST AND MODERATE WITH WINDS. HOWEVER...THE
CONFIDENCE FOR CATEGORY LOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG AS WELL AS SOME SHOWERS.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WHERE THE LOWERING OF CATEGORY
COULD START/END 2-3 HRS DIFFERENT FROM FORECAST AND THE CATEGORY
ITSELF COULD BE 1-2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM OBSERVED AT TIMES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THU AND SAT. WIND GUSTS 15-20
KT THU AFTN AND SAT AFTN.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSTM.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLATED
TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KT HELPING
TO KEEP SEAS AT AROUND 5 FT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SCA FOR NY HARBOR
AND THE S SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 16Z TODAY THROUGH 4Z
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WITH THE SEABREEZE. ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT..EXPECT GUSTS TO TOP
OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHAT FORMS
COULD ALSO JUST END UP BEING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. TO SOON TO
TELL...SO WENT WITH PATCHY FOG LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO 1-3NM.

FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON WEDNESDAY...ITS LIKELY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/TODAY WITH SCA SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ALL
DAY...AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES/NY HARBOR/S
SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME.

SCA SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WED NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THRU THE DAY ON THU. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN AND S
SHORE BAYS...AND BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. LIGHTER FLOW THU
THRU FRI NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN. AS THE FRONT STALLS S OF THE WATERS
SUN AND MON...NE FLOW WOULD DRIVE SEAS TO 5 FT OR MORE ON THE
OCEAN...WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION THAT
FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF STORMS...COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT/DS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 261624
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1224 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...AND SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST DATABASE THIS UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO UPDATE TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

THE REGION REMAINS ON N/W PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION FOR LATER TODAY IS IF NW ZONES FAR ENOUGH REMOVED
FROM THE RIDGE TO GET ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE GFS/NAM
ARGUE YES...THE CMC/ECMWF ARGUE NO.

A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION IS LACKING TODAY ACROSS NW ZONES...BUT
EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG SEABREEZE TO PENETRATE WELL INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY COULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION OVER NW INTERIOR ZONES IF FORECAST CAPE OF 500-1500
J/KG CAPE IS REALIZED (NO CAPE IN ECMWF). SURFACE BASED CAPE HAS
BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY...BUT BEST INSTABILITY AND
LIFT ARE LIKELY TO STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR INTERIOR
ZONES. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NW
ZONES...WITH CHANCE POPS W ORANGE COUNTY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 850 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CORE OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE S/E
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CMC/ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY...WITH NO FORCING.
WHILE THE GFS/NAM BRING A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE OVER MAINLY
N/W PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE.

GIVEN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT WOULD EXPECT S SHORE
LOCATIONS TO GO FIRST...AFTER SUNSET...WITH INTERIOR AREAS
CLOUDING UP AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO
REACH NW ZONES...IF THEY DO AT ALL...NOTING WEAKER IF NOT NON-
EXISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KMGJ/KSWF. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WELL. IF
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS MATERIALIZE...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY FOG UNTIL
AFTER THEY PASS. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WHEN YOU HAVE MARINE
INDUCED STRATUS...IS IT IS NEVER CERTAIN WHETHER YOU WILL GET FOG
AS WELL...SO RESTRICTED FOG TO PATCHY AND AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
FORECAST ANY LOCALLY DENSE FOG...THOUGH CANNOT RULE IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN ZONES WILL BE AIDED
BY FORMATION OF A LEE/THERMAL TROUGH...PASSING OF A 30-35 KT 950
HPA JET...AND MODEL AVERAGE FORECAST CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
BASED ON THIS HAVE 40-50 POPS OVER NW ZONES BY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCE POPS INTO NYC/SW CT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. AS IS
ALWAYS THE QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR...IS HOW LONG DO STORMS STAY
TOGETHER AS THEY HEAD EAST INTO THE MARINE LAYER. WITH BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE MUCH GREATER THAN
40...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
THE HIGH END OF MODEL FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED...THEN SOME
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 900
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EASE THRU THE REGION WED NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND CENTRAL PA AT THIS
POINT PER THE NAM AND GFS. A DECENT RIBBON OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THU. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD RESIDE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WRN CT. THE
PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL KEEP THE COASTS FAIRLY STABLE. THE
CITY WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT REGION...WITH THE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ATTEMPTING TO STABILIZE THE AREA AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS PER THE 00Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER MARITIME INFLUENCED
AIRMASS. AS A RESULT THE BOUNDARY MAY NEVER EVEN MAKE IT TO ERN
AREAS. SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI AS THE PRES FALLS N OF THE REGION.
THIS FALLING PRES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH ON SAT BEFORE STALLING S OF THE AREA
LATE SUN INTO TUE. GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SAT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND CHANCES WILL TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT SUN AND MON.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP THE
CWA FIRMLY IN THE COLDER AIRMASS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES AS OPPOSED TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL
FAR OUT AND EVEN A FRONTAL POSITION JUST S OF THE CWA COULD ALLOW
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
MUCH OF THE TIME. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR
BELOW IN LOW STRATUS/FOG LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
KSWF HAS A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT
PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

S-SW WINDS NEAR 10 GUSTING TO NEAR 15 KT INCREASE FURTHER THIS
AFTERNOON TO NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT A FEW HRS LATER FOR CITY TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR
STRATUS. LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KT HELPING
TO KEEP SEAS AT AROUND 5 FT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SCA FOR NY HARBOR
AND THE S SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 16Z TODAY THROUGH 4Z
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WITH THE SEABREEZE. ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT..EXPECT GUSTS TO TOP
OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHAT FORMS
COULD ALSO JUST END UP BEING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. TO SOON TO
TELL...SO WENT WITH PATCHY FOG LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO 1-3NM.

FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON WEDNESDAY...ITS LIKELY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/TODAY WITH SCA SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ALL
DAY...AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES/NY HARBOR/S
SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME.

SCA SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WED NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THRU THE DAY ON THU. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN AND S
SHORE BAYS...AND BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. LIGHTER FLOW THU
THRU FRI NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN. AS THE FRONT STALLS S OF THE WATERS
SUN AND MON...NE FLOW WOULD DRIVE SEAS TO 5 FT OR MORE ON THE
OCEAN...WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION THAT
FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF STORMS...COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT/DS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC/JM
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 261624
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1224 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...AND SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST DATABASE THIS UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO UPDATE TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

THE REGION REMAINS ON N/W PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION FOR LATER TODAY IS IF NW ZONES FAR ENOUGH REMOVED
FROM THE RIDGE TO GET ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE GFS/NAM
ARGUE YES...THE CMC/ECMWF ARGUE NO.

A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION IS LACKING TODAY ACROSS NW ZONES...BUT
EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG SEABREEZE TO PENETRATE WELL INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY COULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION OVER NW INTERIOR ZONES IF FORECAST CAPE OF 500-1500
J/KG CAPE IS REALIZED (NO CAPE IN ECMWF). SURFACE BASED CAPE HAS
BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY...BUT BEST INSTABILITY AND
LIFT ARE LIKELY TO STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR INTERIOR
ZONES. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NW
ZONES...WITH CHANCE POPS W ORANGE COUNTY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 850 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CORE OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE S/E
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CMC/ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY...WITH NO FORCING.
WHILE THE GFS/NAM BRING A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE OVER MAINLY
N/W PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE.

GIVEN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT WOULD EXPECT S SHORE
LOCATIONS TO GO FIRST...AFTER SUNSET...WITH INTERIOR AREAS
CLOUDING UP AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO
REACH NW ZONES...IF THEY DO AT ALL...NOTING WEAKER IF NOT NON-
EXISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KMGJ/KSWF. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WELL. IF
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS MATERIALIZE...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY FOG UNTIL
AFTER THEY PASS. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WHEN YOU HAVE MARINE
INDUCED STRATUS...IS IT IS NEVER CERTAIN WHETHER YOU WILL GET FOG
AS WELL...SO RESTRICTED FOG TO PATCHY AND AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
FORECAST ANY LOCALLY DENSE FOG...THOUGH CANNOT RULE IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN ZONES WILL BE AIDED
BY FORMATION OF A LEE/THERMAL TROUGH...PASSING OF A 30-35 KT 950
HPA JET...AND MODEL AVERAGE FORECAST CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
BASED ON THIS HAVE 40-50 POPS OVER NW ZONES BY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCE POPS INTO NYC/SW CT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. AS IS
ALWAYS THE QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR...IS HOW LONG DO STORMS STAY
TOGETHER AS THEY HEAD EAST INTO THE MARINE LAYER. WITH BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE MUCH GREATER THAN
40...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
THE HIGH END OF MODEL FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED...THEN SOME
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 900
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EASE THRU THE REGION WED NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND CENTRAL PA AT THIS
POINT PER THE NAM AND GFS. A DECENT RIBBON OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THU. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD RESIDE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WRN CT. THE
PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL KEEP THE COASTS FAIRLY STABLE. THE
CITY WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT REGION...WITH THE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ATTEMPTING TO STABILIZE THE AREA AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS PER THE 00Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER MARITIME INFLUENCED
AIRMASS. AS A RESULT THE BOUNDARY MAY NEVER EVEN MAKE IT TO ERN
AREAS. SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI AS THE PRES FALLS N OF THE REGION.
THIS FALLING PRES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH ON SAT BEFORE STALLING S OF THE AREA
LATE SUN INTO TUE. GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SAT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND CHANCES WILL TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT SUN AND MON.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP THE
CWA FIRMLY IN THE COLDER AIRMASS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES AS OPPOSED TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL
FAR OUT AND EVEN A FRONTAL POSITION JUST S OF THE CWA COULD ALLOW
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
MUCH OF THE TIME. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR
BELOW IN LOW STRATUS/FOG LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
KSWF HAS A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT
PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

S-SW WINDS NEAR 10 GUSTING TO NEAR 15 KT INCREASE FURTHER THIS
AFTERNOON TO NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT A FEW HRS LATER FOR CITY TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR
STRATUS. LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KT HELPING
TO KEEP SEAS AT AROUND 5 FT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SCA FOR NY HARBOR
AND THE S SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 16Z TODAY THROUGH 4Z
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WITH THE SEABREEZE. ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT..EXPECT GUSTS TO TOP
OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHAT FORMS
COULD ALSO JUST END UP BEING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. TO SOON TO
TELL...SO WENT WITH PATCHY FOG LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO 1-3NM.

FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON WEDNESDAY...ITS LIKELY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/TODAY WITH SCA SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ALL
DAY...AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES/NY HARBOR/S
SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME.

SCA SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WED NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THRU THE DAY ON THU. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN AND S
SHORE BAYS...AND BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. LIGHTER FLOW THU
THRU FRI NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN. AS THE FRONT STALLS S OF THE WATERS
SUN AND MON...NE FLOW WOULD DRIVE SEAS TO 5 FT OR MORE ON THE
OCEAN...WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION THAT
FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF STORMS...COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT/DS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC/JM
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 261458
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1058 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...AND SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK THIS MORNING AS THE REGION REMAINS ON
N/W PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR
LATER TODAY IS IF NW ZONES FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE TO
GET ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE GFS/NAM ARGUE YES...THE
CMC/ECMWF ARGUE NO.

A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION IS LACKING TODAY ACROSS NW ZONES...BUT
EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG SEABREEZE TO PENETRATE WELL INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY COULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION OVER NW INTERIOR ZONES IF FORECAST CAPE OF 500-1500
J/KG CAPE IS REALIZED (NO CAPE IN ECMWF). HAVE CONTINUED WITH
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NW ZONES...WITH CHANCE POPS W
ORANGE COUNTY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 850 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CORE OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE S/E
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CMC/ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY...WITH NO FORCING.
WHILE THE GFS/NAM BRING A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE OVER MAINLY
N/W PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE.

GIVEN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT WOULD EXPECT S SHORE
LOCATIONS TO GO FIRST...AFTER SUNSET...WITH INTERIOR AREAS
CLOUDING UP AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO
REACH NW ZONES...IF THEY DO AT ALL...NOTING WEAKER IF NOT NON-
EXISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KMGJ/KSWF. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WELL. IF
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS MATERIALIZE...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY FOG UNTIL
AFTER THEY PASS. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WHEN YOU HAVE MARINE
INDUCED STRATUS...IS IT IS NEVER CERTAIN WHETHER YOU WILL GET FOG
AS WELL...SO RESTRICTED FOG TO PATCHY AND AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
FORECAST ANY LOCALLY DENSE FOG...THOUGH CANNOT RULE IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN ZONES WILL BE AIDED
BY FORMATION OF A LEE/THERMAL TROUGH...PASSING OF A 30-35 KT 950
HPA JET...AND MODEL AVERAGE FORECAST CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
BASED ON THIS HAVE 40-50 POPS OVER NW ZONES BY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCE POPS INTO NYC/SW CT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. AS IS
ALWAYS THE QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR...IS HOW LONG DO STORMS STAY
TOGETHER AS THEY HEAD EAST INTO THE MARINE LAYER. WITH BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE MUCH GREATER THAN
40...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
THE HIGH END OF MODEL FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED...THEN SOME
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 900
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EASE THRU THE REGION WED NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND CENTRAL PA AT THIS
POINT PER THE NAM AND GFS. A DECENT RIBBON OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THU. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD RESIDE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WRN CT. THE
PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL KEEP THE COASTS FAIRLY STABLE. THE
CITY WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT REGION...WITH THE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ATTEMPTING TO STABILIZE THE AREA AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS PER THE 00Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER MARITIME INFLUENCED
AIRMASS. AS A RESULT THE BOUNDARY MAY NEVER EVEN MAKE IT TO ERN
AREAS. SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI AS THE PRES FALLS N OF THE REGION.
THIS FALLING PRES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH ON SAT BEFORE STALLING S OF THE AREA
LATE SUN INTO TUE. GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SAT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND CHANCES WILL TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT SUN AND MON.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP THE
CWA FIRMLY IN THE COLDER AIRMASS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES AS OPPOSED TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL
FAR OUT AND EVEN A FRONTAL POSITION JUST S OF THE CWA COULD ALLOW
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
MUCH OF THE TIME. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR
BELOW IN LOW STRATUS/FOG LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
KSWF HAS A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT
PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

S-SW WINDS NEAR 10 GUSTING TO NEAR 15 KT INCREASE FURTHER THIS
AFTERNOON TO NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT A FEW HRS LATER FOR CITY TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR
STRATUS. LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KT HELPING
TO KEEP SEAS AT AROUND 5 FT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SCA FOR NY HARBOR
AND THE S SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 16Z TODAY THROUGH 4Z
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WITH THE SEABREEZE. ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT..EXPECT GUSTS TO TOP
OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHAT FORMS
COULD ALSO JUST END UP BEING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. TO SOON TO
TELL...SO WENT WITH PATCHY FOG LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO 1-3NM.

FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON WEDNESDAY...ITS LIKELY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/TODAY WITH SCA SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ALL
DAY...AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES/NY HARBOR/S
SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME.

SCA SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WED NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THRU THE DAY ON THU. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN AND S
SHORE BAYS...AND BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. LIGHTER FLOW THU
THRU FRI NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN. AS THE FRONT STALLS S OF THE WATERS
SUN AND MON...NE FLOW WOULD DRIVE SEAS TO 5 FT OR MORE ON THE
OCEAN...WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION THAT
FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF STORMS...COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT/DS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC/JM
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 261458
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1058 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...AND SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK THIS MORNING AS THE REGION REMAINS ON
N/W PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR
LATER TODAY IS IF NW ZONES FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE TO
GET ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE GFS/NAM ARGUE YES...THE
CMC/ECMWF ARGUE NO.

A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION IS LACKING TODAY ACROSS NW ZONES...BUT
EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG SEABREEZE TO PENETRATE WELL INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY COULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION OVER NW INTERIOR ZONES IF FORECAST CAPE OF 500-1500
J/KG CAPE IS REALIZED (NO CAPE IN ECMWF). HAVE CONTINUED WITH
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NW ZONES...WITH CHANCE POPS W
ORANGE COUNTY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 850 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CORE OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE S/E
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CMC/ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY...WITH NO FORCING.
WHILE THE GFS/NAM BRING A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE OVER MAINLY
N/W PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE.

GIVEN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT WOULD EXPECT S SHORE
LOCATIONS TO GO FIRST...AFTER SUNSET...WITH INTERIOR AREAS
CLOUDING UP AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO
REACH NW ZONES...IF THEY DO AT ALL...NOTING WEAKER IF NOT NON-
EXISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KMGJ/KSWF. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WELL. IF
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS MATERIALIZE...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY FOG UNTIL
AFTER THEY PASS. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WHEN YOU HAVE MARINE
INDUCED STRATUS...IS IT IS NEVER CERTAIN WHETHER YOU WILL GET FOG
AS WELL...SO RESTRICTED FOG TO PATCHY AND AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
FORECAST ANY LOCALLY DENSE FOG...THOUGH CANNOT RULE IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN ZONES WILL BE AIDED
BY FORMATION OF A LEE/THERMAL TROUGH...PASSING OF A 30-35 KT 950
HPA JET...AND MODEL AVERAGE FORECAST CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
BASED ON THIS HAVE 40-50 POPS OVER NW ZONES BY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCE POPS INTO NYC/SW CT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. AS IS
ALWAYS THE QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR...IS HOW LONG DO STORMS STAY
TOGETHER AS THEY HEAD EAST INTO THE MARINE LAYER. WITH BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE MUCH GREATER THAN
40...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
THE HIGH END OF MODEL FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED...THEN SOME
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 900
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EASE THRU THE REGION WED NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND CENTRAL PA AT THIS
POINT PER THE NAM AND GFS. A DECENT RIBBON OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THU. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD RESIDE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WRN CT. THE
PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL KEEP THE COASTS FAIRLY STABLE. THE
CITY WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT REGION...WITH THE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ATTEMPTING TO STABILIZE THE AREA AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS PER THE 00Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER MARITIME INFLUENCED
AIRMASS. AS A RESULT THE BOUNDARY MAY NEVER EVEN MAKE IT TO ERN
AREAS. SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI AS THE PRES FALLS N OF THE REGION.
THIS FALLING PRES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH ON SAT BEFORE STALLING S OF THE AREA
LATE SUN INTO TUE. GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SAT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND CHANCES WILL TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT SUN AND MON.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP THE
CWA FIRMLY IN THE COLDER AIRMASS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES AS OPPOSED TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL
FAR OUT AND EVEN A FRONTAL POSITION JUST S OF THE CWA COULD ALLOW
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
MUCH OF THE TIME. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR
BELOW IN LOW STRATUS/FOG LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
KSWF HAS A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT
PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

S-SW WINDS NEAR 10 GUSTING TO NEAR 15 KT INCREASE FURTHER THIS
AFTERNOON TO NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT A FEW HRS LATER FOR CITY TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR
STRATUS. LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KT HELPING
TO KEEP SEAS AT AROUND 5 FT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SCA FOR NY HARBOR
AND THE S SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 16Z TODAY THROUGH 4Z
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WITH THE SEABREEZE. ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT..EXPECT GUSTS TO TOP
OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHAT FORMS
COULD ALSO JUST END UP BEING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. TO SOON TO
TELL...SO WENT WITH PATCHY FOG LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO 1-3NM.

FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON WEDNESDAY...ITS LIKELY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/TODAY WITH SCA SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ALL
DAY...AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES/NY HARBOR/S
SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME.

SCA SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WED NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THRU THE DAY ON THU. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN AND S
SHORE BAYS...AND BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. LIGHTER FLOW THU
THRU FRI NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN. AS THE FRONT STALLS S OF THE WATERS
SUN AND MON...NE FLOW WOULD DRIVE SEAS TO 5 FT OR MORE ON THE
OCEAN...WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION THAT
FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF STORMS...COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT/DS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC/JM
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 261122
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
722 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...AND SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST WAS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

REGION REMAINS ON N/W PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. QUESTION
IS ARE NW ZONES FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE TO GET ANY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE GFS/NAM ARGUE YES...THE CMC/ECMWF
ARGUE NO.

NOTING FORECAST OF 500-1500 J/KG CAPE OVER NW ZONES ON AVERAGE (NO
CAPE IN ECMWF)...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAVING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING TO THE N GOING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NW ZONES...WITH CHANCE POPS W
ORANGE COUNTY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 850 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG SEABREEZE TO PENETRATE
WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT INTO ORANGE
COUNTY...BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
COULD ALSO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION OVER NW INTERIOR
ZONES IF FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CORE OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE S/E
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CMC/ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY...WITH NO FORCING.
WHILE THE GFS/NAM BRING A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE OVER MAINLY
N/W PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE.

GIVEN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT WOULD EXPECT S SHORE
LOCATIONS TO GO FIRST...AFTER SUNSET...WITH INTERIOR AREAS
CLOUDING UP AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO
REACH NW ZONES...IF THEY DO AT ALL...NOTING WEAKER IF NOT NON-
EXISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KMGJ/KSWF. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WELL. IF
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS MATERIALIZE...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY FOG UNTIL
AFTER THEY PASS. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WHEN YOU HAVE MARINE
INDUCED STRATUS...IS IT IS NEVER CERTAIN WHETHER YOU WILL GET FOG
AS WELL...SO RESTRICTED FOG TO PATCHY AND AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
FORECAST ANY LOCALLY DENSE FOG...THOUGH CANNOT RULE IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN ZONES WILL BE AIDED
BY FORMATION OF A LEE/THERMAL TROUGH...PASSING OF A 30-35 KT 950
HPA JET...AND MODEL AVERAGE FORECAST CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
BASED ON THIS HAVE 40-50 POPS OVER NW ZONES BY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCE POPS INTO NYC/SW CT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. AS IS
ALWAYS THE QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR...IS HOW LONG DO STORMS STAY
TOGETHER AS THEY HEAD EAST INTO THE MARINE LAYER. WITH BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE MUCH GREATER THAN
40...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
THE HIGH END OF MODEL FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED...THEN SOME
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 900
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EASE THRU THE REGION WED NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND CENTRAL PA AT THIS
POINT PER THE NAM AND GFS. A DECENT RIBBON OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THU. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD RESIDE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WRN CT. THE
PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL KEEP THE COASTS FAIRLY STABLE. THE
CITY WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT REGION...WITH THE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ATTEMPTING TO STABILIZE THE AREA AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS PER THE 00Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER MARITIME INFLUENCED
AIRMASS. AS A RESULT THE BOUNDARY MAY NEVER EVEN MAKE IT TO ERN
AREAS. SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI AS THE PRES FALLS N OF THE REGION.
THIS FALLING PRES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH ON SAT BEFORE STALLING S OF THE AREA
LATE SUN INTO TUE. GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SAT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND CHANCES WILL TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT SUN AND MON.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP THE
CWA FIRMLY IN THE COLDER AIRMASS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES AS OPPOSED TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL
FAR OUT AND EVEN A FRONTAL POSITION JUST S OF THE CWA COULD ALLOW
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC THIS AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A
PROB30 GROUP FOR THIS AT KSWF. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT AND BY
AFTERNOON WIND MAY BE 15 TO 20 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

LOW STRATUS/FOG ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR  STRATUS. LOW CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KT HELPING
TO KEEP SEAS AT AROUND 5 FT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SCA FOR NY HARBOR
AND THE S SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 16Z TODAY THROUGH 4Z
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WITH THE SEABREEZE. ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT..EXPECT GUSTS TO TOP
OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHAT FORMS
COULD ALSO JUST END UP BEING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. TO SOON TO
TELL...SO WENT WITH PATCHY FOG LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO 1-3NM.

FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON WEDNESDAY...ITS LIKELY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/TODAY WITH SCA SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ALL
DAY...AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES/NY HARBOR/S
SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME.

SCA SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WED NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THRU THE DAY ON THU. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN AND S
SHORE BAYS...AND BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. LIGHTER FLOW THU
THRU FRI NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN. AS THE FRONT STALLS S OF THE WATERS
SUN AND MON...NE FLOW WOULD DRIVE SEAS TO 5 FT OR MORE ON THE
OCEAN...WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION THAT
FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF STORMS...COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 261122
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
722 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...AND SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST WAS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

REGION REMAINS ON N/W PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. QUESTION
IS ARE NW ZONES FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE TO GET ANY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE GFS/NAM ARGUE YES...THE CMC/ECMWF
ARGUE NO.

NOTING FORECAST OF 500-1500 J/KG CAPE OVER NW ZONES ON AVERAGE (NO
CAPE IN ECMWF)...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAVING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING TO THE N GOING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NW ZONES...WITH CHANCE POPS W
ORANGE COUNTY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 850 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG SEABREEZE TO PENETRATE
WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT INTO ORANGE
COUNTY...BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
COULD ALSO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION OVER NW INTERIOR
ZONES IF FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CORE OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE S/E
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CMC/ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY...WITH NO FORCING.
WHILE THE GFS/NAM BRING A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE OVER MAINLY
N/W PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE.

GIVEN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT WOULD EXPECT S SHORE
LOCATIONS TO GO FIRST...AFTER SUNSET...WITH INTERIOR AREAS
CLOUDING UP AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO
REACH NW ZONES...IF THEY DO AT ALL...NOTING WEAKER IF NOT NON-
EXISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KMGJ/KSWF. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WELL. IF
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS MATERIALIZE...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY FOG UNTIL
AFTER THEY PASS. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WHEN YOU HAVE MARINE
INDUCED STRATUS...IS IT IS NEVER CERTAIN WHETHER YOU WILL GET FOG
AS WELL...SO RESTRICTED FOG TO PATCHY AND AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
FORECAST ANY LOCALLY DENSE FOG...THOUGH CANNOT RULE IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN ZONES WILL BE AIDED
BY FORMATION OF A LEE/THERMAL TROUGH...PASSING OF A 30-35 KT 950
HPA JET...AND MODEL AVERAGE FORECAST CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
BASED ON THIS HAVE 40-50 POPS OVER NW ZONES BY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCE POPS INTO NYC/SW CT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. AS IS
ALWAYS THE QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR...IS HOW LONG DO STORMS STAY
TOGETHER AS THEY HEAD EAST INTO THE MARINE LAYER. WITH BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE MUCH GREATER THAN
40...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
THE HIGH END OF MODEL FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED...THEN SOME
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 900
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EASE THRU THE REGION WED NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND CENTRAL PA AT THIS
POINT PER THE NAM AND GFS. A DECENT RIBBON OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THU. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD RESIDE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WRN CT. THE
PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL KEEP THE COASTS FAIRLY STABLE. THE
CITY WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT REGION...WITH THE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ATTEMPTING TO STABILIZE THE AREA AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS PER THE 00Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER MARITIME INFLUENCED
AIRMASS. AS A RESULT THE BOUNDARY MAY NEVER EVEN MAKE IT TO ERN
AREAS. SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI AS THE PRES FALLS N OF THE REGION.
THIS FALLING PRES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH ON SAT BEFORE STALLING S OF THE AREA
LATE SUN INTO TUE. GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SAT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND CHANCES WILL TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT SUN AND MON.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP THE
CWA FIRMLY IN THE COLDER AIRMASS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES AS OPPOSED TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL
FAR OUT AND EVEN A FRONTAL POSITION JUST S OF THE CWA COULD ALLOW
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC THIS AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A
PROB30 GROUP FOR THIS AT KSWF. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT AND BY
AFTERNOON WIND MAY BE 15 TO 20 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

LOW STRATUS/FOG ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR  STRATUS. LOW CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KT HELPING
TO KEEP SEAS AT AROUND 5 FT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SCA FOR NY HARBOR
AND THE S SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 16Z TODAY THROUGH 4Z
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WITH THE SEABREEZE. ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT..EXPECT GUSTS TO TOP
OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHAT FORMS
COULD ALSO JUST END UP BEING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. TO SOON TO
TELL...SO WENT WITH PATCHY FOG LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO 1-3NM.

FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON WEDNESDAY...ITS LIKELY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/TODAY WITH SCA SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ALL
DAY...AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES/NY HARBOR/S
SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME.

SCA SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WED NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THRU THE DAY ON THU. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN AND S
SHORE BAYS...AND BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. LIGHTER FLOW THU
THRU FRI NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN. AS THE FRONT STALLS S OF THE WATERS
SUN AND MON...NE FLOW WOULD DRIVE SEAS TO 5 FT OR MORE ON THE
OCEAN...WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION THAT
FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF STORMS...COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 260832
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
432 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...AND SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGION REMAINS ON N/W PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. QUESTION IS
ARE NW ZONES FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE TO GET ANY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE GFS/NAM ARGUE YES...THE
CMC/ECMWF ARGUE NO.

NOTING FORECAST OF 500-1500 J/KG CAPE OVER NW ZONES ON AVERAGE (NO
CAPE IN ECMWF)...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAVING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING TO THE N GOING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NW ZONES...WITH CHANCE POPS W
ORANGE COUNTY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 850 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG SEABREEZE TO PENETRATE
WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT INTO ORANGE
COUNTY...BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
COULD ALSO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION OVER NW INTERIOR
ZONES IF FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CORE OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE S/E
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CMC/ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY...WITH NO FORCING.
WHILE THE GFS/NAM BRING A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE OVER MAINLY
N/W PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE.

GIVEN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT WOULD EXPECT S SHORE
LOCATIONS TO GO FIRST...AFTER SUNSET...WITH INTERIOR AREAS
CLOUDING UP AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO
REACH NW ZONES...IF THEY DO AT ALL...NOTING WEAKER IF NOT NON-
EXISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KMGJ/KSWF. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WELL. IF
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS MATERIALIZE...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY FOG UNTIL
AFTER THEY PASS. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WHEN YOU HAVE MARINE
INDUCED STRATUS...IS IT IS NEVER CERTAIN WHETHER YOU WILL GET FOG
AS WELL...SO RESTRICTED FOG TO PATCHY AND AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
FORECAST ANY LOCALLY DENSE FOG...THOUGH CANNOT RULE IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN ZONES WILL BE AIDED
BY FORMATION OF A LEE/THERMAL TROUGH...PASSING OF A 30-35 KT 950
HPA JET...AND MODEL AVERAGE FORECAST CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
BASED ON THIS HAVE 40-50 POPS OVER NW ZONES BY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCE POPS INTO NYC/SW CT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. AS IS
ALWAYS THE QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR...IS HOW LONG DO STORMS STAY
TOGETHER AS THEY HEAD EAST INTO THE MARINE LAYER. WITH BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE MUCH GREATER THAN
40...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
THE HIGH END OF MODEL FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED...THEN SOME
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 900
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EASE THRU THE REGION WED NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND CENTRAL PA AT THIS
POINT PER THE NAM AND GFS. A DECENT RIBBON OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THU. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD RESIDE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WRN CT. THE
PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL KEEP THE COASTS FAIRLY STABLE. THE
CITY WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT REGION...WITH THE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ATTEMPTING TO STABILIZE THE AREA AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS PER THE 00Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER MARITIME INFLUENCED
AIRMASS. AS A RESULT THE BOUNDARY MAY NEVER EVEN MAKE IT TO ERN
AREAS. SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI AS THE PRES FALLS N OF THE REGION.
THIS FALLING PRES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH ON SAT BEFORE STALLING S OF THE AREA
LATE SUN INTO TUE. GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SAT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND CHANCES WILL TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT SUN AND MON.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP THE
CWA FIRMLY IN THE COLDER AIRMASS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES AS OPPOSED TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL
FAR OUT AND EVEN A FRONTAL POSITION JUST S OF THE CWA COULD ALLOW
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC THIS AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A
PROB30 GROUP FOR THIS AT KSWF. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT AND BY
AFTERNOON WIND MAY BE 15 TO 20 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME MVFR STRATUS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF LONG ISLAND.

.WEDNESDAY...LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR  STRATUS. LOW CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KT HELPING
TO KEEP SEAS AT AROUND 5 FT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SCA FOR NY HARBOR
AND THE S SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 16Z TODAY THROUGH 4Z
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WITH THE SEABREEZE. ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT..EXPECT GUSTS TO TOP
OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHAT FORMS
COULD ALSO JUST END UP BEING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. TO SOON TO
TELL...SO WENT WITH PATCHY FOG LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO 1-3NM.

FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON WEDNESDAY...ITS LIKELY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/TODAY WITH SCA SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ALL
DAY...AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES/NY HARBOR/S
SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME.

SCA SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WED NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THRU THE DAY ON THU. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN AND S
SHORE BAYS...AND BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. LIGHTER FLOW THU
THRU FRI NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN. AS THE FRONT STALLS S OF THE WATERS
SUN AND MON...NE FLOW WOULD DRIVE SEAS TO 5 FT OR MORE ON THE
OCEAN...WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION THAT
FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF STORMS...COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 260832
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
432 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...AND SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGION REMAINS ON N/W PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. QUESTION IS
ARE NW ZONES FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE TO GET ANY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE GFS/NAM ARGUE YES...THE
CMC/ECMWF ARGUE NO.

NOTING FORECAST OF 500-1500 J/KG CAPE OVER NW ZONES ON AVERAGE (NO
CAPE IN ECMWF)...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAVING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING TO THE N GOING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NW ZONES...WITH CHANCE POPS W
ORANGE COUNTY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 850 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG SEABREEZE TO PENETRATE
WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT INTO ORANGE
COUNTY...BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
COULD ALSO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION OVER NW INTERIOR
ZONES IF FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CORE OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE S/E
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CMC/ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY...WITH NO FORCING.
WHILE THE GFS/NAM BRING A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE OVER MAINLY
N/W PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE.

GIVEN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT WOULD EXPECT S SHORE
LOCATIONS TO GO FIRST...AFTER SUNSET...WITH INTERIOR AREAS
CLOUDING UP AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO
REACH NW ZONES...IF THEY DO AT ALL...NOTING WEAKER IF NOT NON-
EXISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KMGJ/KSWF. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WELL. IF
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS MATERIALIZE...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY FOG UNTIL
AFTER THEY PASS. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WHEN YOU HAVE MARINE
INDUCED STRATUS...IS IT IS NEVER CERTAIN WHETHER YOU WILL GET FOG
AS WELL...SO RESTRICTED FOG TO PATCHY AND AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
FORECAST ANY LOCALLY DENSE FOG...THOUGH CANNOT RULE IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN ZONES WILL BE AIDED
BY FORMATION OF A LEE/THERMAL TROUGH...PASSING OF A 30-35 KT 950
HPA JET...AND MODEL AVERAGE FORECAST CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
BASED ON THIS HAVE 40-50 POPS OVER NW ZONES BY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCE POPS INTO NYC/SW CT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. AS IS
ALWAYS THE QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR...IS HOW LONG DO STORMS STAY
TOGETHER AS THEY HEAD EAST INTO THE MARINE LAYER. WITH BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE MUCH GREATER THAN
40...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
THE HIGH END OF MODEL FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED...THEN SOME
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 900
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EASE THRU THE REGION WED NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND CENTRAL PA AT THIS
POINT PER THE NAM AND GFS. A DECENT RIBBON OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THU. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD RESIDE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WRN CT. THE
PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL KEEP THE COASTS FAIRLY STABLE. THE
CITY WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT REGION...WITH THE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ATTEMPTING TO STABILIZE THE AREA AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS PER THE 00Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER MARITIME INFLUENCED
AIRMASS. AS A RESULT THE BOUNDARY MAY NEVER EVEN MAKE IT TO ERN
AREAS. SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI AS THE PRES FALLS N OF THE REGION.
THIS FALLING PRES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH ON SAT BEFORE STALLING S OF THE AREA
LATE SUN INTO TUE. GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SAT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND CHANCES WILL TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT SUN AND MON.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP THE
CWA FIRMLY IN THE COLDER AIRMASS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES AS OPPOSED TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL
FAR OUT AND EVEN A FRONTAL POSITION JUST S OF THE CWA COULD ALLOW
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC THIS AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A
PROB30 GROUP FOR THIS AT KSWF. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT AND BY
AFTERNOON WIND MAY BE 15 TO 20 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME MVFR STRATUS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF LONG ISLAND.

.WEDNESDAY...LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR  STRATUS. LOW CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KT HELPING
TO KEEP SEAS AT AROUND 5 FT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SCA FOR NY HARBOR
AND THE S SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 16Z TODAY THROUGH 4Z
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WITH THE SEABREEZE. ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT..EXPECT GUSTS TO TOP
OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHAT FORMS
COULD ALSO JUST END UP BEING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. TO SOON TO
TELL...SO WENT WITH PATCHY FOG LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO 1-3NM.

FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON WEDNESDAY...ITS LIKELY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/TODAY WITH SCA SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ALL
DAY...AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES/NY HARBOR/S
SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME.

SCA SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WED NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THRU THE DAY ON THU. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN AND S
SHORE BAYS...AND BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. LIGHTER FLOW THU
THRU FRI NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN. AS THE FRONT STALLS S OF THE WATERS
SUN AND MON...NE FLOW WOULD DRIVE SEAS TO 5 FT OR MORE ON THE
OCEAN...WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION THAT
FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF STORMS...COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 260808
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
408 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...AND SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGION REMAINS ON N/W PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. QUESTION IS
ARE NW ZONES FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE TO GET ANY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE GFS/NAM ARGUE YES...THE
CMC/ECMWF ARGUE NO.

NOTING FORECAST OF 500-1500 J/KG CAPE OVER NW ZONES ON AVERAGE (NO
CAPE IN ECMWF)...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAVING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING TO THE N GOING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NW ZONES...WITH CHANCE POPS W
ORANGE COUNTY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 850 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG SEABREEZE TO PENETRATE
WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT INTO ORANGE
COUNTY...BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
COULD ALSO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION OVER NW INTERIOR
ZONES IF FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CORE OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE S/E
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CMC/ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY...WITH NO FORCING.
WHILE THE GFS/NAM BRING A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE OVER MAINLY
N/W PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE.

GIVEN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT WOULD EXPECT S SHORE
LOCATIONS TO GO FIRST...AFTER SUNSET...WITH INTERIOR AREAS
CLOUDING UP AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO
REACH NW ZONES...IF THEY DO AT ALL...NOTING WEAKER IF NOT NON-
EXISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KMGJ/KSWF. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WELL. IF
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS MATERIALIZE...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY FOG UNTIL
AFTER THEY PASS. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WHEN YOU HAVE MARINE
INDUCED STRATUS...IS IT IS NEVER CERTAIN WHETHER YOU WILL GET FOG
AS WELL...SO RESTRICTED FOG TO PATCHY AND AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
FORECAST ANY LOCALLY DENSE FOG...THOUGH CANNOT RULE IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN ZONES WILL BE AIDED
BY FORMATION OF A LEE/THERMAL TROUGH...PASSING OF A 30-35 KT 950
HPA JET...AND MODEL AVERAGE FORECAST CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
BASED ON THIS HAVE 40-50 POPS OVER NW ZONES BY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCE POPS INTO NYC/SW CT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. AS IS
ALWAYS THE QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR...IS HOW LONG DO STORMS STAY
TOGETHER AS THEY HEAD EAST INTO THE MARINE LAYER. WITH BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE MUCH GREATER THAN
40...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
THE HIGH END OF MODEL FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED...THEN SOME
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 900
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EASE THRU THE REGION WED NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND CENTRAL PA AT THIS
POINT PER THE NAM AND GFS. A DECENT RIBBON OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THU. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD RESIDE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WRN CT. THE
PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL KEEP THE COASTS FAIRLY STABLE. THE
CITY WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT REGION...WITH THE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ATTEMPTING TO STABILIZE THE AREA AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS PER THE 00Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER MARITIME INFLUENCED
AIRMASS. AS A RESULT THE BOUNDARY MAY NEVER EVEN MAKE IT TO ERN
AREAS. SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI AS THE PRES FALLS N OF THE REGION.
THIS FALLING PRES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH ON SAT BEFORE STALLING S OF THE AREA
LATE SUN INTO TUE. GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SAT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND CHANCES WILL TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT SUN AND MON.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP THE
CWA FIRMLY IN THE COLDER AIRMASS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES AS OPPOSED TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL
FAR OUT AND EVEN A FRONTAL POSITION JUST S OF THE CWA COULD ALLOW
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH MUCH TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND WEST OF NYC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A PROB30
GROUP FOR THIS AT KSWF. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WIND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INCREASES TUESDAY MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT AND
BY AFTERNOON WIND MAY BE 15 TO 20 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25
KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME MVFR STRATUS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF LONG ISLAND.

.WEDNESDAY...LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR  STRATUS. LOW CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KT HELPING
TO KEEP SEAS AT AROUND 5 FT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SCA FOR NY HARBOR
AND THE S SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 16Z TODAY THROUGH 4Z
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WITH THE SEABREEZE. ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT..EXPECT GUSTS TO TOP
OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHAT FORMS
COULD ALSO JUST END UP BEING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. TO SOON TO
TELL...SO WENT WITH PATCHY FOG LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO 1-3NM.

FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON WEDNESDAY...ITS LIKELY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/TODAY WITH SCA SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ALL
DAY...AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES/NY HARBOR/S
SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME.

SCA SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WED NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THRU THE DAY ON THU. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN AND S
SHORE BAYS...AND BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. LIGHTER FLOW THU
THRU FRI NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN. AS THE FRONT STALLS S OF THE WATERS
SUN AND MON...NE FLOW WOULD DRIVE SEAS TO 5 FT OR MORE ON THE
OCEAN...WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION THAT
FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF STORMS...COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JMC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MALOIT/JMC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JMC





000
FXUS61 KOKX 260808
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
408 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...AND SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGION REMAINS ON N/W PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. QUESTION IS
ARE NW ZONES FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE TO GET ANY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE GFS/NAM ARGUE YES...THE
CMC/ECMWF ARGUE NO.

NOTING FORECAST OF 500-1500 J/KG CAPE OVER NW ZONES ON AVERAGE (NO
CAPE IN ECMWF)...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAVING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING TO THE N GOING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NW ZONES...WITH CHANCE POPS W
ORANGE COUNTY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 850 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG SEABREEZE TO PENETRATE
WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT INTO ORANGE
COUNTY...BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
COULD ALSO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION OVER NW INTERIOR
ZONES IF FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CORE OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE S/E
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CMC/ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY...WITH NO FORCING.
WHILE THE GFS/NAM BRING A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE OVER MAINLY
N/W PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE.

GIVEN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT WOULD EXPECT S SHORE
LOCATIONS TO GO FIRST...AFTER SUNSET...WITH INTERIOR AREAS
CLOUDING UP AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO
REACH NW ZONES...IF THEY DO AT ALL...NOTING WEAKER IF NOT NON-
EXISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KMGJ/KSWF. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WELL. IF
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS MATERIALIZE...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY FOG UNTIL
AFTER THEY PASS. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WHEN YOU HAVE MARINE
INDUCED STRATUS...IS IT IS NEVER CERTAIN WHETHER YOU WILL GET FOG
AS WELL...SO RESTRICTED FOG TO PATCHY AND AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
FORECAST ANY LOCALLY DENSE FOG...THOUGH CANNOT RULE IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN ZONES WILL BE AIDED
BY FORMATION OF A LEE/THERMAL TROUGH...PASSING OF A 30-35 KT 950
HPA JET...AND MODEL AVERAGE FORECAST CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
BASED ON THIS HAVE 40-50 POPS OVER NW ZONES BY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCE POPS INTO NYC/SW CT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. AS IS
ALWAYS THE QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR...IS HOW LONG DO STORMS STAY
TOGETHER AS THEY HEAD EAST INTO THE MARINE LAYER. WITH BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE MUCH GREATER THAN
40...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
THE HIGH END OF MODEL FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED...THEN SOME
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 900
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EASE THRU THE REGION WED NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND CENTRAL PA AT THIS
POINT PER THE NAM AND GFS. A DECENT RIBBON OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THU. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD RESIDE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WRN CT. THE
PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL KEEP THE COASTS FAIRLY STABLE. THE
CITY WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT REGION...WITH THE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ATTEMPTING TO STABILIZE THE AREA AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS PER THE 00Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER MARITIME INFLUENCED
AIRMASS. AS A RESULT THE BOUNDARY MAY NEVER EVEN MAKE IT TO ERN
AREAS. SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI AS THE PRES FALLS N OF THE REGION.
THIS FALLING PRES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH ON SAT BEFORE STALLING S OF THE AREA
LATE SUN INTO TUE. GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SAT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND CHANCES WILL TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT SUN AND MON.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP THE
CWA FIRMLY IN THE COLDER AIRMASS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES AS OPPOSED TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL
FAR OUT AND EVEN A FRONTAL POSITION JUST S OF THE CWA COULD ALLOW
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH MUCH TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND WEST OF NYC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A PROB30
GROUP FOR THIS AT KSWF. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WIND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INCREASES TUESDAY MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT AND
BY AFTERNOON WIND MAY BE 15 TO 20 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25
KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME MVFR STRATUS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF LONG ISLAND.

.WEDNESDAY...LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR  STRATUS. LOW CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KT HELPING
TO KEEP SEAS AT AROUND 5 FT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SCA FOR NY HARBOR
AND THE S SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 16Z TODAY THROUGH 4Z
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WITH THE SEABREEZE. ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT..EXPECT GUSTS TO TOP
OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHAT FORMS
COULD ALSO JUST END UP BEING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. TO SOON TO
TELL...SO WENT WITH PATCHY FOG LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO 1-3NM.

FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON WEDNESDAY...ITS LIKELY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/TODAY WITH SCA SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ALL
DAY...AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES/NY HARBOR/S
SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME.

SCA SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WED NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THRU THE DAY ON THU. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN AND S
SHORE BAYS...AND BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. LIGHTER FLOW THU
THRU FRI NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN. AS THE FRONT STALLS S OF THE WATERS
SUN AND MON...NE FLOW WOULD DRIVE SEAS TO 5 FT OR MORE ON THE
OCEAN...WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION THAT
FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF STORMS...COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JMC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MALOIT/JMC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JMC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 260534
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
134 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY...THEN STALL OUT TO THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DECREASING
TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE FLOATING AROUND
TOWARDS MORNING.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S
IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
USHER A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN/AROUND NYC...AREAS MAINLY
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CT. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 80S...WHILE
LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM ABOVE THE LOWER 70S DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW AND WATER TEMPS
STILL IN THE 50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH FORECASTED CAPE VALUES OVER 1500
J/KG ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE...CAN
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS IN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MODELS ALSO INDICATING SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WILL CAP POPS AT CHANCE...AS ACTIVITY
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. WILL NOT MENTION SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR
COASTAL AREAS AS SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE A STABILIZING EFFECT ON
THE AREA...AND ANY STORMS THAT POP UP WILL NOT BE ABLE TO LAST IN
THAT ENVIRONMENT.

SOME FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL
AREAS. WILL INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALSO SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HARD TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THE CONVECTION WOULD SET
UP...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE WED INTO THU. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE...BERMUDA HIGH...TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE ONLY FORECAST DILEMMA IS WITH THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT LATE
NEXT WEEKEND MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS
THE FASTEST...AND MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO
THE SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS.

AS FOR CONVECTION...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WHERE THE AIRMASS CAN DESTABILIZE THE MOST. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE OUTSIDE OF ANY WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ABLE TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. THIS WILL BE A MODERATE CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT WEAKLY
SHEARED. STEERING FLOW BECOMES LIGHT ALOFT AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
THUS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT WEEKEND
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM BY ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH MUCH TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND WEST OF NYC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A PROB30
GROUP FOR THIS AT KSWF. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WIND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INCREASES TUESDAY MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT AND
BY AFTERNOON WIND MAY BE 15 TO 20 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25
KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME MVFR STRATUS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF LONG ISLAND.

.WEDNESDAY...LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR  STRATUS. LOW CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WIND GUSTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KT AT 44069 SO HAVE CANCELLED THE
SCA FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND.

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5
FT TONIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH THE INCREASED SEAS...WILL GO AHEAD AND
CARRY THE SCA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL...POSSIBLY REDUCING VSBY TO LESS
THAN 1 NM.

ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE DUE TO A
PERSISTENT SLY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND ANY TRAINING OF CELLS COULD RESULT IN MINOR
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT
WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS/DW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 260534
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
134 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY...THEN STALL OUT TO THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DECREASING
TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE FLOATING AROUND
TOWARDS MORNING.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S
IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
USHER A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN/AROUND NYC...AREAS MAINLY
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CT. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 80S...WHILE
LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM ABOVE THE LOWER 70S DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW AND WATER TEMPS
STILL IN THE 50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH FORECASTED CAPE VALUES OVER 1500
J/KG ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE...CAN
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS IN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MODELS ALSO INDICATING SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WILL CAP POPS AT CHANCE...AS ACTIVITY
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. WILL NOT MENTION SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR
COASTAL AREAS AS SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE A STABILIZING EFFECT ON
THE AREA...AND ANY STORMS THAT POP UP WILL NOT BE ABLE TO LAST IN
THAT ENVIRONMENT.

SOME FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL
AREAS. WILL INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALSO SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HARD TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THE CONVECTION WOULD SET
UP...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE WED INTO THU. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE...BERMUDA HIGH...TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE ONLY FORECAST DILEMMA IS WITH THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT LATE
NEXT WEEKEND MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS
THE FASTEST...AND MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO
THE SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS.

AS FOR CONVECTION...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WHERE THE AIRMASS CAN DESTABILIZE THE MOST. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE OUTSIDE OF ANY WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ABLE TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. THIS WILL BE A MODERATE CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT WEAKLY
SHEARED. STEERING FLOW BECOMES LIGHT ALOFT AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
THUS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT WEEKEND
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM BY ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH MUCH TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND WEST OF NYC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A PROB30
GROUP FOR THIS AT KSWF. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WIND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INCREASES TUESDAY MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT AND
BY AFTERNOON WIND MAY BE 15 TO 20 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25
KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME MVFR STRATUS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF LONG ISLAND.

.WEDNESDAY...LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR  STRATUS. LOW CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WIND GUSTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KT AT 44069 SO HAVE CANCELLED THE
SCA FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND.

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5
FT TONIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH THE INCREASED SEAS...WILL GO AHEAD AND
CARRY THE SCA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL...POSSIBLY REDUCING VSBY TO LESS
THAN 1 NM.

ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE DUE TO A
PERSISTENT SLY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND ANY TRAINING OF CELLS COULD RESULT IN MINOR
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT
WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS/DW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 260453
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1253 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY...THEN STALL OUT TO THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DECREASING
TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE FLOATING AROUND
TOWARDS MORNING.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S
IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
USHER A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN/AROUND NYC...AREAS MAINLY
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CT. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 80S...WHILE
LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM ABOVE THE LOWER 70S DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW AND WATER TEMPS
STILL IN THE 50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH FORECASTED CAPE VALUES OVER 1500
J/KG ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE...CAN
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS IN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MODELS ALSO INDICATING SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WILL CAP POPS AT CHANCE...AS ACTIVITY
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. WILL NOT MENTION SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR
COASTAL AREAS AS SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE A STABILIZING EFFECT ON
THE AREA...AND ANY STORMS THAT POP UP WILL NOT BE ABLE TO LAST IN
THAT ENVIRONMENT.

SOME FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL
AREAS. WILL INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALSO SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HARD TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THE CONVECTION WOULD SET
UP...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE WED INTO THU. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE...BERMUDA HIGH...TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE ONLY FORECAST DILEMMA IS WITH THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT LATE
NEXT WEEKEND MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS
THE FASTEST...AND MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO
THE SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS.

AS FOR CONVECTION...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WHERE THE AIRMASS CAN DESTABILIZE THE MOST. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE OUTSIDE OF ANY WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ABLE TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. THIS WILL BE A MODERATE CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT WEAKLY
SHEARED. STEERING FLOW BECOMES LIGHT ALOFT AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
THUS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT WEEKEND
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM BY ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WIND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INCREASES TUESDAY MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT AND
BY AFTERNOON WIND MAY BE 15 TO 20 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25
KT.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 20-25KT END EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF LONG ISLAND.

.WEDNESDAY...LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR  STRATUS. LOW CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WIND GUSTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KT AT 44069 SO HAVE CANCELLED THE
SCA FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND.

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5
FT TONIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH THE INCREASED SEAS...WILL GO AHEAD AND
CARRY THE SCA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL...POSSIBLY REDUCING VSBY TO LESS
THAN 1 NM.

ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE DUE TO A
PERSISTENT SLY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND ANY TRAINING OF CELLS COULD RESULT IN MINOR
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT
WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS/DW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW





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