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000
FXUS61 KOKX 010425
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1225 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK OVERNIGHT WITH MINOR UPDATES TO TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS. SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NW ZONES PER MESO MODELS...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN/AROUND NYC...AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. FAR NW PORTIONS OF
ORANGE COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...SFC
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY LEVELS...CAN EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 20-30 KT...SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE TOO LONG
LIVED...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW TO DEPART. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHOWERS/STORMS TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...TOPPING OFF
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NYC/NE
NJ.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY FOR EASTERN LONG
ISLAND BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ONE LOCATION
IS LOW.

LIGHT S TO SW WIND AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS TONIGHT. WIND INCREASES OUT OF THE
S/SE MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA
AND ISOLD TSTMS.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS TOWARD THE
AREA AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...
WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...LN/MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS











000
FXUS61 KOKX 010425
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1225 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK OVERNIGHT WITH MINOR UPDATES TO TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS. SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NW ZONES PER MESO MODELS...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN/AROUND NYC...AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. FAR NW PORTIONS OF
ORANGE COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...SFC
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY LEVELS...CAN EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 20-30 KT...SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE TOO LONG
LIVED...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW TO DEPART. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHOWERS/STORMS TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...TOPPING OFF
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NYC/NE
NJ.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY FOR EASTERN LONG
ISLAND BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ONE LOCATION
IS LOW.

LIGHT S TO SW WIND AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS TONIGHT. WIND INCREASES OUT OF THE
S/SE MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA
AND ISOLD TSTMS.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS TOWARD THE
AREA AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...
WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...LN/MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS










000
FXUS61 KOKX 010246
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1046 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NW ZONES PER MESO MODELS...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN/AROUND NYC...AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. FAR NW PORTIONS OF
ORANGE COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...SFC
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY LEVELS...CAN EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 20-30 KT...SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE TOO LONG
LIVED...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW TO DEPART. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHOWERS/STORMS TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...TOPPING OFF
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NYC/NE
NJ.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY FOR EASTERN LONG
ISLAND BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ONE LOCATION
IS LOW.

LIGHT S TO SW WIND AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS TONIGHT. WIND INCREASES OUT OF THE S
MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA
AND ISOLD TSTMS.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS TOWARD THE
AREA AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...
WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 312349
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
749 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING.

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN/AROUND NYC...AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. FAR NW PORTIONS OF
ORANGE COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...SFC
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY LEVELS...CAN EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 20-30 KT...SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE TOO LONG
LIVED...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW TO DEPART. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHOWERS/STORMS TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...TOPPING OFF
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NYC/NE
NJ.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY FOR EASTERN LONG
ISLAND BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ONE LOCATION
IS LOW.

LIGHT S TO SW WIND AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS TONIGHT. WIND INCREASES OUT OF THE S
MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

  ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA
AND ISOLD TSTMS.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS TOWARD THE
AREA AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...
WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 312349
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
749 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING.

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN/AROUND NYC...AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. FAR NW PORTIONS OF
ORANGE COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...SFC
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY LEVELS...CAN EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 20-30 KT...SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE TOO LONG
LIVED...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW TO DEPART. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHOWERS/STORMS TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...TOPPING OFF
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NYC/NE
NJ.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY FOR EASTERN LONG
ISLAND BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ONE LOCATION
IS LOW.

LIGHT S TO SW WIND AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS TONIGHT. WIND INCREASES OUT OF THE S
MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

  ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA
AND ISOLD TSTMS.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS TOWARD THE
AREA AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...
WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 312305
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
705 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING.

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN/AROUND NYC...AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. FAR NW PORTIONS OF
ORANGE COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...SFC
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY LEVELS...CAN EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 20-30 KT...SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE TOO LONG
LIVED...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW TO DEPART. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHOWERS/STORMS TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...TOPPING OFF
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NYC/NE
NJ.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY FOR EASTERN LONG
ISLAND BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LOW ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SO WHILE A SHRA/TSTM AT CITY AND WESTERN
TERMINALS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...THE PROBABILITY
OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

S WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT MAINLY
AT CITY TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SE MID-LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20KT THROUGH 23Z.
TIMING IN ONSET OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20KT THROUGH 23Z.
TIMING IN ONSET OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2
HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS TOWARD THE
AREA AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...
WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MALOIT/MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 312305
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
705 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING.

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN/AROUND NYC...AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. FAR NW PORTIONS OF
ORANGE COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...SFC
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY LEVELS...CAN EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 20-30 KT...SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE TOO LONG
LIVED...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW TO DEPART. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHOWERS/STORMS TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...TOPPING OFF
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NYC/NE
NJ.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY FOR EASTERN LONG
ISLAND BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LOW ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SO WHILE A SHRA/TSTM AT CITY AND WESTERN
TERMINALS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...THE PROBABILITY
OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

S WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT MAINLY
AT CITY TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SE MID-LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20KT THROUGH 23Z.
TIMING IN ONSET OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20KT THROUGH 23Z.
TIMING IN ONSET OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2
HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS TOWARD THE
AREA AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...
WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MALOIT/MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 312040
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
440 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING.

SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN PA AND ARE
MOVING TOWARDS NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. INSTABILITY VALUES
ARE FAIRLY HIGH...WITH ML MUCAPE VALUES AVERAGING 500-750 J/KG
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND OVER 1000 J/KG ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO 30-40 KT OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND AND 40-50 KT OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE LIFT IN
THE ATMOSPHERE AS MOST OF THE ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION
AND THE LIFTED INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO -2C.

SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT DO THINK THINK COVERAGE WILL BE WIDESPREAD.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NE NJ...NYC...THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SW CT. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS ROM DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT.

ANY SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF AROUND SUNSET.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL
EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN/AROUND NYC...AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. FAR NW PORTIONS OF
ORANGE COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

THERE REMAINS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY... AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...SFC
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY LEVELS...CAN EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 20-30 KT...SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE TOO LONG
LIVED...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW TO DEPART. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHOWERS/STORMS TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...TOPPING OFF
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NYC/NE
NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LOW ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SO WHILE A SHRA/TSTM AT CITY AND WESTERN
TERMINALS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...THE PROBABILITY
OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

S WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT MAINLY
AT CITY TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SE MID-LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20KT THROUGH 23Z.
TIMING IN ONSET OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20KT THROUGH 23Z.
TIMING IN ONSET OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2
HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...
WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MALOIT/MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 311904
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
304 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING.

SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN PA AND ARE
MOVING TOWARDS NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. INSTABILITY VALUES
ARE FAIRLY HIGH...WITH ML MUCAPE VALUES AVERAGING 500-750 J/KG
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND OVER 1000 J/KG ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO 30-40 KT OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND AND 40-50 KT OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE LIFT IN
THE ATMOSPHERE AS MOST OF THE ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION
AND THE LIFTED INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO -2C.

SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT DO THINK THINK COVERAGE WILL BE WIDESPREAD.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NE NJ...NYC...THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SW CT. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS ROM DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT.

ANY SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF AROUND SUNSET.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL
EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN/AROUND NYC...AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. FAR NW PORTIONS OF
ORANGE COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

THERE REMAINS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY... AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...SFC
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY LEVELS...CAN EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 20-30 KT...SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE TOO LONG
LIVED...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW TO DEPART. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHOWERS/STORMS TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...TOPPING OFF
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NYC/NE
NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL HAS APPEARED TO
DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE REMOVED TEMPO
GROUP FOR SHRA AT KSWF. WHILE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
SHRA/TSTM AT CITY AND WESTERN TERMINALS...THE PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

SW WINDS VEER TO THE S AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
BE GUSTY AT CITY TERMINALS...WITH A SEABREEZE COMPONENT. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE
S-SE MID-LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF
+/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...
WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 311904
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
304 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING.

SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN PA AND ARE
MOVING TOWARDS NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. INSTABILITY VALUES
ARE FAIRLY HIGH...WITH ML MUCAPE VALUES AVERAGING 500-750 J/KG
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND OVER 1000 J/KG ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO 30-40 KT OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND AND 40-50 KT OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE LIFT IN
THE ATMOSPHERE AS MOST OF THE ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION
AND THE LIFTED INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO -2C.

SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT DO THINK THINK COVERAGE WILL BE WIDESPREAD.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NE NJ...NYC...THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SW CT. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS ROM DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT.

ANY SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF AROUND SUNSET.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL
EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN/AROUND NYC...AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. FAR NW PORTIONS OF
ORANGE COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

THERE REMAINS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY... AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...SFC
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY LEVELS...CAN EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 20-30 KT...SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE TOO LONG
LIVED...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW TO DEPART. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHOWERS/STORMS TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...TOPPING OFF
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NYC/NE
NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL HAS APPEARED TO
DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE REMOVED TEMPO
GROUP FOR SHRA AT KSWF. WHILE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
SHRA/TSTM AT CITY AND WESTERN TERMINALS...THE PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

SW WINDS VEER TO THE S AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
BE GUSTY AT CITY TERMINALS...WITH A SEABREEZE COMPONENT. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE
S-SE MID-LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF
+/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...
WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS







000
FXUS61 KOKX 311735
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
135 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BACK IN FROM THE OCEAN THIS WEEKEND AND IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND WEAK SHORTWAVE
IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY
NORTH OF THE REGION. ML MUCAPE VALUES ARE AVERAGING 500-750 J/KG
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND ARE TOPPING 1000 J/KG ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO 30-40
KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS
LITTLE LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE AS MOST OF THE ENERGY REMAINS NORTH
OF THE REGION.

WILL GO AHEAD AND DROP BACK POPS BY ABOUT 10-15 PERCENT...DROPPING
POPS FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND WILL DROP POPS FOR FAR SE CT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY.

MAX TEMPS TODAY TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS NYC AND NE NJ.

THERE REMAINS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND 3 FT S/SE SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. TEMPS NEAR
SEASONABLE AS MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUTLYING AREAS AS A RESULT.

DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN 1/2 OF THE US...DEEPENS SOUTHERLY FLOW
UP THE EAST COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THE COAST AND WEAK RIGHT
REAR JET LIFT WILL PRESENT A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY FOR NYC METRO AND PARTICULARLY POINTS N&W FRI AFT/EVE.

OVERALL SHEAR LOOKS WEAK...SO WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE
PULSE IN NATURE...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS. 15 KT SSE
STEERING FLOW WILL LEND TO AN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN MODERATING AIRMASS...LOWER 80S TO 85.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. AS THE HIGH
RETROGRADES WEST...IT WILL PUSH A FRONT TO THE WEST WITH IT. WITH
THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...THE
FRONT WILL SIT NEAR AND/OR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A CONTINUOUS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO HELP BRING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
ALSO SITS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COMBINATION OF
THESE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SOME
OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

12Z ECMWF IS A WETTER SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS/NAM KEEPS IT TO THE SOUTH WHICH KEEPS THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...DID
NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS AND LEFT CHANCE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MAYBE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS DUE TO
THE MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

A SURFACE LOW THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE SE IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH. THIS QUICKLY TRACKS NE OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY.
ECMWF FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVELS QUICKER ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS
LEAVES THE SURFACE LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A WET
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP
FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED TUES AND WED. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM
MON-WED AS HEIGHTS RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE SUN
THAN THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL HAS APPEARED TO
DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE REMOVED TEMPO
GROUP FOR SHRA AT KSWF. WHILE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
SHRA/TSTM AT CITY AND WESTERN TERMINALS...THE PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

SW WINDS VEER TO THE S AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
BE GUSTY AT CITY TERMINALS...WITH A SEABREEZE COMPONENT. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE
S-SE MID-LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF
+/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO AROUND 15 KT
MOVEMENT...WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY
TRAINING OF CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...MPS/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...NV/LN
HYDROLOGY...NV/LN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 311643
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1243 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BACK IN FROM THE OCEAN THIS WEEKEND AND IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND WEAK SHORTWAVE
IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY
NORTH OF THE REGION. ML MUCAPE VALUES ARE AVERAGING 500-750 J/KG
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND ARE TOPPING 1000 J/KG ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO 30-40
KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS
LITTLE LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE AS MOST OF THE ENERGY REMAINS NORTH
OF THE REGION.

WILL GO AHEAD AND DROP BACK POPS BY ABOUT 10-15 PERCENT...DROPPING
POPS FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND WILL DROP POPS FOR FAR SE CT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY.

MAX TEMPS TODAY TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS NYC AND NE NJ.

THERE REMAINS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND 3 FT S/SE SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. TEMPS NEAR
SEASONABLE AS MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUTLYING AREAS AS A RESULT.

DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN 1/2 OF THE US...DEEPENS SOUTHERLY FLOW
UP THE EAST COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THE COAST AND WEAK RIGHT
REAR JET LIFT WILL PRESENT A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY FOR NYC METRO AND PARTICULARLY POINTS N&W FRI AFT/EVE.

OVERALL SHEAR LOOKS WEAK...SO WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE
PULSE IN NATURE...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS. 15 KT SSE
STEERING FLOW WILL LEND TO AN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN MODERATING AIRMASS...LOWER 80S TO 85.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. AS THE HIGH
RETROGRADES WEST...IT WILL PUSH A FRONT TO THE WEST WITH IT. WITH
THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...THE
FRONT WILL SIT NEAR AND/OR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A CONTINUOUS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO HELP BRING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
ALSO SITS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COMBINATION OF
THESE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SOME
OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

12Z ECMWF IS A WETTER SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS/NAM KEEPS IT TO THE SOUTH WHICH KEEPS THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...DID
NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS AND LEFT CHANCE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MAYBE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS DUE TO
THE MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

A SURFACE LOW THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE SE IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH. THIS QUICKLY TRACKS NE OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY.
ECMWF FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVELS QUICKER ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS
LEAVES THE SURFACE LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A WET
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP
FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED TUES AND WED. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM
MON-WED AS HEIGHTS RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE SUN
THAN THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

MOST LIKELY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLD-SCT SHRA WITH
POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE N/W OF NYC. PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...EXCEPT FOR KSWF WHERE SHRA HAVE BEEN RETAINED IN A TEMPO
GROUP.

SHRA/TSTMS...IF ANY...DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFT 22Z.

SW WINDS VEER TO THE S AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A
SEABREEZE COMPONENT. SPEEDS LIGHTEN AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE SEABREEZE
INFLUENCE WEAKENS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO AROUND 15 KT
MOVEMENT...WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY
TRAINING OF CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...MPS/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...JMC/MALOIT
MARINE...LN/NV
HYDROLOGY...LN/NV











000
FXUS61 KOKX 311643
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1243 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BACK IN FROM THE OCEAN THIS WEEKEND AND IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND WEAK SHORTWAVE
IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY
NORTH OF THE REGION. ML MUCAPE VALUES ARE AVERAGING 500-750 J/KG
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND ARE TOPPING 1000 J/KG ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO 30-40
KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS
LITTLE LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE AS MOST OF THE ENERGY REMAINS NORTH
OF THE REGION.

WILL GO AHEAD AND DROP BACK POPS BY ABOUT 10-15 PERCENT...DROPPING
POPS FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND WILL DROP POPS FOR FAR SE CT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY.

MAX TEMPS TODAY TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS NYC AND NE NJ.

THERE REMAINS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND 3 FT S/SE SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. TEMPS NEAR
SEASONABLE AS MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUTLYING AREAS AS A RESULT.

DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN 1/2 OF THE US...DEEPENS SOUTHERLY FLOW
UP THE EAST COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THE COAST AND WEAK RIGHT
REAR JET LIFT WILL PRESENT A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY FOR NYC METRO AND PARTICULARLY POINTS N&W FRI AFT/EVE.

OVERALL SHEAR LOOKS WEAK...SO WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE
PULSE IN NATURE...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS. 15 KT SSE
STEERING FLOW WILL LEND TO AN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN MODERATING AIRMASS...LOWER 80S TO 85.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. AS THE HIGH
RETROGRADES WEST...IT WILL PUSH A FRONT TO THE WEST WITH IT. WITH
THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...THE
FRONT WILL SIT NEAR AND/OR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A CONTINUOUS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO HELP BRING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
ALSO SITS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COMBINATION OF
THESE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SOME
OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

12Z ECMWF IS A WETTER SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS/NAM KEEPS IT TO THE SOUTH WHICH KEEPS THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...DID
NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS AND LEFT CHANCE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MAYBE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS DUE TO
THE MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

A SURFACE LOW THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE SE IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH. THIS QUICKLY TRACKS NE OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY.
ECMWF FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVELS QUICKER ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS
LEAVES THE SURFACE LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A WET
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP
FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED TUES AND WED. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM
MON-WED AS HEIGHTS RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE SUN
THAN THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

MOST LIKELY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLD-SCT SHRA WITH
POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE N/W OF NYC. PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...EXCEPT FOR KSWF WHERE SHRA HAVE BEEN RETAINED IN A TEMPO
GROUP.

SHRA/TSTMS...IF ANY...DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFT 22Z.

SW WINDS VEER TO THE S AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A
SEABREEZE COMPONENT. SPEEDS LIGHTEN AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE SEABREEZE
INFLUENCE WEAKENS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO AROUND 15 KT
MOVEMENT...WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY
TRAINING OF CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...MPS/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...JMC/MALOIT
MARINE...LN/NV
HYDROLOGY...LN/NV










000
FXUS61 KOKX 311443
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1043 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BACK IN FROM THE OCEAN THIS WEEKEND AND IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINE OF SHOWERS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN CT.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY WITH
NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

CONSIDERABLE DIURNAL CU AND MEAN TROUGHING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WITH WHICH TO WORK...OVERALL
SHRA ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD BE LOW IN COVERAGE. A FEW SHOWER
POSSIBLE WELL N&W THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK LLJ. MOST ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE N&W OF NYC METRO DEVELOPING FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVE...ALONG WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND OFF HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN PA AND HILLS OF NJ/LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...DRIFTING NE. IN-SITU TSTM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE
ISOLATED IN LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT MODERATE SHEAR/WIND FIELDS
COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO THE W/SW AND DRIFTING NE.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND 3 FT S/SE SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. TEMPS NEAR
SEASONABLE AS MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUTLYING AREAS AS A RESULT.

DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN 1/2 OF THE US...DEEPENS SOUTHERLY FLOW
UP THE EAST COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THE COAST AND WEAK RIGHT
REAR JET LIFT WILL PRESENT A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY FOR NYC METRO AND PARTICULARLY POINTS N&W FRI AFT/EVE.

OVERALL SHEAR LOOKS WEAK...SO WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE
PULSE IN NATURE...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS. 15 KT SSE
STEERING FLOW WILL LEND TO AN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN MODERATING AIRMASS...LOWER 80S TO 85.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. AS THE HIGH
RETROGRADES WEST...IT WILL PUSH A FRONT TO THE WEST WITH IT. WITH
THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...THE
FRONT WILL SIT NEAR AND/OR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A CONTINUOUS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO HELP BRING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
ALSO SITS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COMBINATION OF
THESE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SOME
OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

12Z ECMWF IS A WETTER SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS/NAM KEEPS IT TO THE SOUTH WHICH KEEPS THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...DID
NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS AND LEFT CHANCE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MAYBE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS DUE TO
THE MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

A SURFACE LOW THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE SE IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH. THIS QUICKLY TRACKS NE OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY.
ECMWF FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVELS QUICKER ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS
LEAVES THE SURFACE LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A WET
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP
FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED TUES AND WED. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM
MON-WED AS HEIGHTS RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE SUN
THAN THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

MOST LIKELY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLD-SCT SHRA WITH
POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE N/W OF NYC. PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...EXCEPT FOR KSWF WHERE SHRA HAVE BEEN RETAINED IN A TEMPO
GROUP.

SHRA/TSTMS...IF ANY...DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFT 22Z.

SW WINDS VEER TO THE S AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A
SEABREEZE COMPONENT. SPEEDS LIGHTEN AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE SEABREEZE
INFLUENCE WEAKENS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGINIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO AROUND 15 KT
MOVEMENT...WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY
TRAINING OF CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...MPS/LN/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...MALOIT/JMC
MARINE...NV/LN
HYDROLOGY...NV/LN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 311443
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1043 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BACK IN FROM THE OCEAN THIS WEEKEND AND IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINE OF SHOWERS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN CT.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY WITH
NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

CONSIDERABLE DIURNAL CU AND MEAN TROUGHING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WITH WHICH TO WORK...OVERALL
SHRA ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD BE LOW IN COVERAGE. A FEW SHOWER
POSSIBLE WELL N&W THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK LLJ. MOST ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE N&W OF NYC METRO DEVELOPING FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVE...ALONG WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND OFF HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN PA AND HILLS OF NJ/LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...DRIFTING NE. IN-SITU TSTM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE
ISOLATED IN LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT MODERATE SHEAR/WIND FIELDS
COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO THE W/SW AND DRIFTING NE.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND 3 FT S/SE SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. TEMPS NEAR
SEASONABLE AS MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUTLYING AREAS AS A RESULT.

DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN 1/2 OF THE US...DEEPENS SOUTHERLY FLOW
UP THE EAST COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THE COAST AND WEAK RIGHT
REAR JET LIFT WILL PRESENT A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY FOR NYC METRO AND PARTICULARLY POINTS N&W FRI AFT/EVE.

OVERALL SHEAR LOOKS WEAK...SO WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE
PULSE IN NATURE...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS. 15 KT SSE
STEERING FLOW WILL LEND TO AN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN MODERATING AIRMASS...LOWER 80S TO 85.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. AS THE HIGH
RETROGRADES WEST...IT WILL PUSH A FRONT TO THE WEST WITH IT. WITH
THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...THE
FRONT WILL SIT NEAR AND/OR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A CONTINUOUS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO HELP BRING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
ALSO SITS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COMBINATION OF
THESE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SOME
OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

12Z ECMWF IS A WETTER SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS/NAM KEEPS IT TO THE SOUTH WHICH KEEPS THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...DID
NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS AND LEFT CHANCE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MAYBE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS DUE TO
THE MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

A SURFACE LOW THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE SE IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH. THIS QUICKLY TRACKS NE OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY.
ECMWF FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVELS QUICKER ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS
LEAVES THE SURFACE LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A WET
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP
FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED TUES AND WED. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM
MON-WED AS HEIGHTS RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE SUN
THAN THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

MOST LIKELY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLD-SCT SHRA WITH
POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE N/W OF NYC. PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...EXCEPT FOR KSWF WHERE SHRA HAVE BEEN RETAINED IN A TEMPO
GROUP.

SHRA/TSTMS...IF ANY...DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFT 22Z.

SW WINDS VEER TO THE S AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A
SEABREEZE COMPONENT. SPEEDS LIGHTEN AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE SEABREEZE
INFLUENCE WEAKENS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGINIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO AROUND 15 KT
MOVEMENT...WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY
TRAINING OF CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...MPS/LN/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...MALOIT/JMC
MARINE...NV/LN
HYDROLOGY...NV/LN






000
FXUS61 KOKX 311119
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
719 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BACK IN FROM THE OCEAN THIS WEEKEND AND IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST FOR THE DAY CURRENTLY ON TRACK. TWEAKED TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS FOR CURRENT OBS BUT TREND WAS ON TRACK. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LWR HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ...CONSISTENT
WITH OUR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE THERE.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY WITH NEXT
WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

CONSIDERABLE DIURNAL CU AND MEAN TROUGHING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...OVERALL SHRA
ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD BE LOW IN COVERAGE. A FEW SHOWER POSSIBLE WELL
N&W THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK LLJ. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE N&W OF NYC
METRO DEVELOPING FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE...ALONG WEAK
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND OFF HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN PA AND HILLS
OF NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...DRIFTING NE. IN-SITU TSTM DEVELOPMENT
LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED IN LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT MODERATE
SHEAR/WIND FIELDS COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO THE W/SW AND
DRIFTING NE.

THERE IS A LOW THREAT FOR RIP DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BECOMING
THERE MODERATE RISK THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND 3 FT S/SE SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. TEMPS NEAR
SEASONABLE AS MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUTLYING AREAS AS A RESULT.

DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN 1/2 OF THE US...DEEPENS SOUTHERLY FLOW
UP THE EAST COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THE COAST AND WEAK RIGHT
REAR JET LIFT WILL PRESENT A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY FOR NYC METRO AND PARTICULARLY POINTS N&W FRI AFT/EVE.

OVERALL SHEAR LOOKS WEAK...SO WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE
PULSE IN NATURE...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS. 15 KT SSE
STEERING FLOW WILL LEND TO AN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN MODERATING AIRMASS...LOWER 80S TO 85.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. AS THE HIGH
RETROGRADES WEST...IT WILL PUSH A FRONT TO THE WEST WITH IT. WITH
THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...THE
FRONT WILL SIT NEAR AND/OR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A CONTINUOUS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO HELP BRING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
ALSO SITS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COMBINATION OF
THESE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SOME
OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

12Z ECMWF IS A WETTER SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS/NAM KEEPS IT TO THE SOUTH WHICH KEEPS THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...DID
NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS AND LEFT CHANCE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MAYBE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS DUE TO
THE MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

A SURFACE LOW THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE SE IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH. THIS QUICKLY TRACKS NE OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY.
ECMWF FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVELS QUICKER ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS
LEAVES THE SURFACE LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A WET
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP
FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED TUES AND WED. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM
MON-WED AS HEIGHTS RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE SUN
THAN THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THRU FRI.

ISOLD-SCT SHRA AND TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AFT 15-17Z...ESPECIALLY
N AND W OF KNYC. THE PROB OF DIRECT IMPACTS AT A PARTICULAR
TERMINAL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS...EXCEPT FOR KSWF WHERE
SHRA HAVE BEEN RETAINED IN A TEMPO GROUP.

SHRA/TSTMS DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFT 22Z.

VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY PCPN.

VRB WINDS BECOME SW THIS MRNG THEN VEER TO THE S AND INCREASE THRU
THE DAY WITH A SEA BREEZE COMPONENT. SPEEDS LIGHTEN AGAIN TNGT
AS THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE WEAKENS.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. S
FLOW.
.SAT-SUN...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER. E FLOW SAT BECOMING S SUN.
.MON...BECOMING VFR WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO AROUND 15 KT
MOVEMENT...WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY
TRAINING OF CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...LN/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...LN/NV
HYDROLOGY...LN/NV










000
FXUS61 KOKX 310846
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
446 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BACK IN FROM THE OCEAN THIS WEEKEND AND IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY WITH NEXT WEAK
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

CONSIDERABLE DIURNAL CU AND MEAN TROUGHING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...OVERALL SHRA
ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD BE LOW IN COVERAGE. A FEW SHOWER POSSIBLE WELL
N&W THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK LLJ. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE N&W OF NYC
METRO DEVELOPING FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE...ALONG WEAK
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND OFF HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN PA AND HILLS
OF NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...DRIFTING NE. IN-SITU TSTM DEVELOPMENT
LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED IN LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT MODERATE
SHEAR/WIND FIELDS COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO THE W/SW AND
DRIFTING NE.

THERE IS A LOW THREAT FOR RIP DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BECOMING
THERE MODERATE RISK THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND 3 FT S/SE SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. TEMPS NEAR
SEASONABLE AS MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUTLYING AREAS AS A RESULT.

DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN 1/2 OF THE US...DEEPENS SOUTHERLY FLOW
UP THE EAST COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THE COAST AND WEAK RIGHT
REAR JET LIFT WILL PRESENT A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY FOR NYC METRO AND PARTICULARLY POINTS N&W FRI AFT/EVE.

OVERALL SHEAR LOOKS WEAK...SO WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE
PULSE IN NATURE...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS. 15 KT SSE
STEERING FLOW WILL LEND TO AN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN MODERATING AIRMASS...LOWER 80S TO 85.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. AS THE HIGH
RETROGRADES WEST...IT WILL PUSH A FRONT TO THE WEST WITH IT. WITH
THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...THE
FRONT WILL SIT NEAR AND/OR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A CONTINUOUS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO HELP BRING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
ALSO SITS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COMBINATION OF
THESE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SOME
OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

12Z ECMWF IS A WETTER SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS/NAM KEEPS IT TO THE SOUTH WHICH KEEPS THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...DID
NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS AND LEFT CHANCE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MAYBE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS DUE TO
THE MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

A SURFACE LOW THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE SE IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH. THIS QUICKLY TRACKS NE OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY.
ECMWF FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVELS QUICKER ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS
LEAVES THE SURFACE LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A WET
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP
FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED TUES AND WED. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM
MON-WED AS HEIGHTS RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE SUN
THAN THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THRU FRI.

ISOLD-SCT SHRA AND TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AFT 15-17Z...ESPECIALLY
N AND W OF KNYC. THE PROB OF DIRECT IMPACTS AT A PARTICULAR
TERMINAL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS...EXCEPT FOR KSWF WHERE
SHRA HAVE BEEN RETAINED IN A TEMPO GROUP.

SHRA/TSTMS DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFT 22Z.

VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY PCPN.

VRB WINDS BECOME SW THIS MRNG THEN VEER TO THE S AND INCREASE THRU
THE DAY WITH A SEA BREEZE COMPONENT. SPEEDS LIGHTEN AGAIN TNGT
AS THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE WEAKENS.


...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NGT-FRI...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE FRI AFTN/EVE.
S FLOW.
.SAT-SUN...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER. E FLOW SAT BECOMING S SUN.
.MON...BECOMING VFR WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO AROUND 15 KT
MOVEMENT...WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY
TRAINING OF CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...LN/NV
HYDROLOGY...LN/NV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 310800
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
400 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BACK IN FROM THE OCEAN THIS WEEKEND AND IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY WITH NEXT WEAK
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

CONSIDERABLE DIURNAL CU AND MEAN TROUGHING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...OVERALL SHRA
ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD BE LOW IN COVERAGE. A FEW SHOWER POSSIBLE WELL
N&W THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK LLJ. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE N&W OF NYC
METRO DEVELOPING FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE...ALONG WEAK
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND OFF HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN PA AND HILLS
OF NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...DRIFTING NE. IN-SITU TSTM DEVELOPMENT
LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED IN LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT MODERATE
SHEAR/WIND FIELDS COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO THE W/SW AND
DRIFTING NE.

THERE IS A LOW THREAT FOR RIP DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BECOMING
THERE MODERATE RISK THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND 3 FT S/SE SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. TEMPS NEAR
SEASONABLE AS MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUTLYING AREAS AS A RESULT.

DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN 1/2 OF THE US...DEEPENS SOUTHERLY FLOW
UP THE EAST COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THE COAST AND WEAK RIGHT
REAR JET LIFT WILL PRESENT A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY FOR NYC METRO AND PARTICULARLY POINTS N&W FRI AFT/EVE.

OVERALL SHEAR LOOKS WEAK...SO WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE
PULSE IN NATURE...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS. 15 KT SSE
STEERING FLOW WILL LEND TO AN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN MODERATING AIRMASS...LOWER 80S TO 85.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. AS THE HIGH
RETROGRADES WEST...IT WILL PUSH A FRONT TO THE WEST WITH IT. WITH
THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...THE
FRONT WILL SIT NEAR AND/OR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A CONTINUOUS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO HELP BRING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
ALSO SITS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COMBINATION OF
THESE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SOME
OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

12Z ECMWF IS A WETTER SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS/NAM KEEPS IT TO THE SOUTH WHICH KEEPS THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...DID
NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS AND LEFT CHANCE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MAYBE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS DUE TO
THE MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

A SURFACE LOW THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE SE IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH. THIS QUICKLY TRACKS NE OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY.
ECMWF FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVELS QUICKER ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS
LEAVES THE SURFACE LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A WET
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP
FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED TUES AND WED. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM
MON-WED AS HEIGHTS RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE SUN
THAN THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE ON THU.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY FROM AROUND 14Z TO 19Z...WITH KSWF POSSIBLY
IMPACTED. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN ALSO POSSIBLE. A FEW SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC TERMINALS...HOWEVER NO IMPACT
TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WIND TONIGHT INCREASES THRU THE
DAY. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 16Z TO 19Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO AROUND 15 KT
MOVEMENT...WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY
TRAINING OF CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...LN/NV
HYDROLOGY...LN/NV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 310800
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
400 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BACK IN FROM THE OCEAN THIS WEEKEND AND IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY WITH NEXT WEAK
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

CONSIDERABLE DIURNAL CU AND MEAN TROUGHING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...OVERALL SHRA
ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD BE LOW IN COVERAGE. A FEW SHOWER POSSIBLE WELL
N&W THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK LLJ. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE N&W OF NYC
METRO DEVELOPING FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE...ALONG WEAK
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND OFF HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN PA AND HILLS
OF NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...DRIFTING NE. IN-SITU TSTM DEVELOPMENT
LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED IN LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT MODERATE
SHEAR/WIND FIELDS COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO THE W/SW AND
DRIFTING NE.

THERE IS A LOW THREAT FOR RIP DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BECOMING
THERE MODERATE RISK THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND 3 FT S/SE SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. TEMPS NEAR
SEASONABLE AS MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUTLYING AREAS AS A RESULT.

DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN 1/2 OF THE US...DEEPENS SOUTHERLY FLOW
UP THE EAST COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THE COAST AND WEAK RIGHT
REAR JET LIFT WILL PRESENT A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY FOR NYC METRO AND PARTICULARLY POINTS N&W FRI AFT/EVE.

OVERALL SHEAR LOOKS WEAK...SO WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE
PULSE IN NATURE...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS. 15 KT SSE
STEERING FLOW WILL LEND TO AN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN MODERATING AIRMASS...LOWER 80S TO 85.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. AS THE HIGH
RETROGRADES WEST...IT WILL PUSH A FRONT TO THE WEST WITH IT. WITH
THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...THE
FRONT WILL SIT NEAR AND/OR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A CONTINUOUS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO HELP BRING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
ALSO SITS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COMBINATION OF
THESE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SOME
OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

12Z ECMWF IS A WETTER SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS/NAM KEEPS IT TO THE SOUTH WHICH KEEPS THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...DID
NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS AND LEFT CHANCE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MAYBE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS DUE TO
THE MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

A SURFACE LOW THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE SE IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH. THIS QUICKLY TRACKS NE OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY.
ECMWF FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVELS QUICKER ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS
LEAVES THE SURFACE LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A WET
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP
FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED TUES AND WED. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM
MON-WED AS HEIGHTS RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE SUN
THAN THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE ON THU.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY FROM AROUND 14Z TO 19Z...WITH KSWF POSSIBLY
IMPACTED. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN ALSO POSSIBLE. A FEW SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC TERMINALS...HOWEVER NO IMPACT
TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WIND TONIGHT INCREASES THRU THE
DAY. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 16Z TO 19Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO AROUND 15 KT
MOVEMENT...WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY
TRAINING OF CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...LN/NV
HYDROLOGY...LN/NV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 310506
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
106 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MOVES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY DRIFTING EAST FROM EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A THREAT OF SPRINKLES OR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER WEST OF HUDSON OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND
RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
OUTLYING AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN/AROUND
NYC...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. LOWS IN OUTLYING PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 50S. .

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA AND PASSES JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL
CWA. CAPE VALUES WILL RISE CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KT. THE LIFTED INDEX WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK... GENERALLY RANGING FROM -1 TO -2C. WITH THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT
CHANCE...AND WILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS STARTING IN THE
LATE MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY EVENING. DO THINK STORMS
WILL BE HARD TO MAKE IT TO FAR SE CT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY...AND WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THOSE
AREAS.

MAX TEMPS GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR NYC...LONG
ISLAND...NE NJ...AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. LIGHT...ONSHORE
FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH SFC DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOW-MID 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
AWAY FROM NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AREAS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BERMUDA RIDGE
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE 12Z/GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST FORCING FOR CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHILE 12Z/ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST FORCING TO
BE ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND MAINTAIN
40/50 POP FOR THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SCHC
POPS ON MONDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE ON THU.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY FROM AROUND 14Z TO 19Z...WITH KSWF POSSIBLY
IMPACTED. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN ALSO POSSIBLE. A FEW SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC TERMINALS...HOWEVER NO IMPACT
TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WIND TONIGHT INCREASES THRU THE
DAY. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 16Z TO 19Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BRIEF...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED NUISANCE
FLOODING. A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/MPS/NV
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC/MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 310506
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
106 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MOVES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY DRIFTING EAST FROM EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A THREAT OF SPRINKLES OR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER WEST OF HUDSON OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND
RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
OUTLYING AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN/AROUND
NYC...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. LOWS IN OUTLYING PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 50S. .

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA AND PASSES JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL
CWA. CAPE VALUES WILL RISE CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KT. THE LIFTED INDEX WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK... GENERALLY RANGING FROM -1 TO -2C. WITH THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT
CHANCE...AND WILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS STARTING IN THE
LATE MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY EVENING. DO THINK STORMS
WILL BE HARD TO MAKE IT TO FAR SE CT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY...AND WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THOSE
AREAS.

MAX TEMPS GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR NYC...LONG
ISLAND...NE NJ...AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. LIGHT...ONSHORE
FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH SFC DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOW-MID 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
AWAY FROM NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AREAS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BERMUDA RIDGE
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE 12Z/GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST FORCING FOR CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHILE 12Z/ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST FORCING TO
BE ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND MAINTAIN
40/50 POP FOR THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SCHC
POPS ON MONDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE ON THU.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY FROM AROUND 14Z TO 19Z...WITH KSWF POSSIBLY
IMPACTED. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN ALSO POSSIBLE. A FEW SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC TERMINALS...HOWEVER NO IMPACT
TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WIND TONIGHT INCREASES THRU THE
DAY. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 16Z TO 19Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BRIEF...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED NUISANCE
FLOODING. A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/MPS/NV
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC/MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS










000
FXUS61 KOKX 310242
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1042 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MOVES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING INTO EASTERN NY/PA. HOWEVER...WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND LIMITING MOISTURE...PCPN IS DISSIPATING AS IT
NEARS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA/LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
NE NJ. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE POTENTIAL THROUGH 1 AM FOR THIS
AREA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN DRY POPS WITH THE LOW PROBABILITY OF
ANYTHING HOLDING TOGETHER.

HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND
RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN/AROUND
NYC...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. LOWS IN OUTLYING PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 50S. TEMPS ON TRACK FOR THE NIGHT AS OF 02Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA AND PASSES JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL
CWA. CAPE VALUES WILL RISE CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KT. THE LIFTED INDEX WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK... GENERALLY RANGING FROM -1 TO -2C. WITH THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT
CHANCE...AND WILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS STARTING IN THE
LATE MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY EVENING. DO THINK STORMS
WILL BE HARD TO MAKE IT TO FAR SE CT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY...AND WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THOSE
AREAS.

MAX TEMPS GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR NYC...LONG
ISLAND...NE NJ...AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. LIGHT...ONSHORE
FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH SFC DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOW-MID 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
AWAY FROM NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AREAS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BERMUDA RIDGE
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE 12Z/GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST FORCING FOR CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHILE 12Z/ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST FORCING TO
BE ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND MAINTAIN
40/50 POP FOR THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SCHC
POPS ON MONDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC TO NORTHEAST COAST INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY FROM AROUND 14Z TO 19Z THURSDAY...WITH KSWF
POSSIBLY IMPACTED. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN ALSO POSSIBLE. A FEW
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC TERMINALS...HOWEVER NO
IMPACT TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WIND TONIGHT INCREASES THURSDAY. A
SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 16Z TO 19Z THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BRIEF...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED NUISANCE
FLOODING. A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS










000
FXUS61 KOKX 310242
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1042 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MOVES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING INTO EASTERN NY/PA. HOWEVER...WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND LIMITING MOISTURE...PCPN IS DISSIPATING AS IT
NEARS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA/LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
NE NJ. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE POTENTIAL THROUGH 1 AM FOR THIS
AREA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN DRY POPS WITH THE LOW PROBABILITY OF
ANYTHING HOLDING TOGETHER.

HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND
RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN/AROUND
NYC...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. LOWS IN OUTLYING PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 50S. TEMPS ON TRACK FOR THE NIGHT AS OF 02Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA AND PASSES JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL
CWA. CAPE VALUES WILL RISE CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KT. THE LIFTED INDEX WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK... GENERALLY RANGING FROM -1 TO -2C. WITH THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT
CHANCE...AND WILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS STARTING IN THE
LATE MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY EVENING. DO THINK STORMS
WILL BE HARD TO MAKE IT TO FAR SE CT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY...AND WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THOSE
AREAS.

MAX TEMPS GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR NYC...LONG
ISLAND...NE NJ...AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. LIGHT...ONSHORE
FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH SFC DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOW-MID 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
AWAY FROM NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AREAS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BERMUDA RIDGE
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE 12Z/GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST FORCING FOR CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHILE 12Z/ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST FORCING TO
BE ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND MAINTAIN
40/50 POP FOR THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SCHC
POPS ON MONDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC TO NORTHEAST COAST INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY FROM AROUND 14Z TO 19Z THURSDAY...WITH KSWF
POSSIBLY IMPACTED. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN ALSO POSSIBLE. A FEW
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC TERMINALS...HOWEVER NO
IMPACT TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WIND TONIGHT INCREASES THURSDAY. A
SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 16Z TO 19Z THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BRIEF...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED NUISANCE
FLOODING. A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS











000
FXUS61 KOKX 302320
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
720 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MOVES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
00Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH REFLECTIVITY SHOWING ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER CENTRAL PA/WESTERN NY. 23Z LAPS SHOWS MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND VERY LITTLE SHEAR OVER THE LOWER HUDSON AND NE NJ
AND WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AFTER THE LOSS OF ANY DAYTIME
HEATING...EXPECTING PCPN WILL DIMINISH AS IT ENTERS THE AREA WITH
NOTHING TO MAINTAIN THE STRUCTURE. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN DRY
POPS THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND
RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN/AROUND
NYC...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. LOWS IN OUTLYING PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG
ISLAND WILL DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA AND PASSES JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL
CWA. CAPE VALUES WILL RISE CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KT. THE LIFTED INDEX WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK... GENERALLY RANGING FROM -1 TO -2C. WITH THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT
CHANCE...AND WILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS STARTING IN THE
LATE MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY EVENING. DO THINK STORMS
WILL BE HARD TO MAKE IT TO FAR SE CT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY...AND WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THOSE
AREAS.

MAX TEMPS GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR NYC...LONG
ISLAND...NE NJ...AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. LIGHT...ONSHORE
FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH SFC DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOW-MID 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
AWAY FROM NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AREAS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BERMUDA RIDGE
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE 12Z/GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST FORCING FOR CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHILE 12Z/ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST FORCING TO
BE ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND MAINTAIN
40/50 POP FOR THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SCHC
POPS ON MONDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC TO NORTHEAST COAST INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY FROM AROUND 14Z TO 19Z...WITH KSWF POSSIBLY
IMPACTED. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN ALSO POSSIBLE. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC TERMINALS...HOWEVER NO IMPACT
TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED.

WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE/LIGHT SW TONIGHT. A SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 16Z TO 19Z THURSDAY.

  ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BRIEF...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED NUISANCE
FLOODING. A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS







000
FXUS61 KOKX 302320
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
720 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MOVES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
00Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH REFLECTIVITY SHOWING ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER CENTRAL PA/WESTERN NY. 23Z LAPS SHOWS MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND VERY LITTLE SHEAR OVER THE LOWER HUDSON AND NE NJ
AND WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AFTER THE LOSS OF ANY DAYTIME
HEATING...EXPECTING PCPN WILL DIMINISH AS IT ENTERS THE AREA WITH
NOTHING TO MAINTAIN THE STRUCTURE. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN DRY
POPS THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND
RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN/AROUND
NYC...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. LOWS IN OUTLYING PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG
ISLAND WILL DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA AND PASSES JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL
CWA. CAPE VALUES WILL RISE CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KT. THE LIFTED INDEX WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK... GENERALLY RANGING FROM -1 TO -2C. WITH THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT
CHANCE...AND WILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS STARTING IN THE
LATE MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY EVENING. DO THINK STORMS
WILL BE HARD TO MAKE IT TO FAR SE CT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY...AND WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THOSE
AREAS.

MAX TEMPS GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR NYC...LONG
ISLAND...NE NJ...AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. LIGHT...ONSHORE
FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH SFC DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOW-MID 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
AWAY FROM NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AREAS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BERMUDA RIDGE
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE 12Z/GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST FORCING FOR CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHILE 12Z/ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST FORCING TO
BE ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND MAINTAIN
40/50 POP FOR THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SCHC
POPS ON MONDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC TO NORTHEAST COAST INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY FROM AROUND 14Z TO 19Z...WITH KSWF POSSIBLY
IMPACTED. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN ALSO POSSIBLE. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC TERMINALS...HOWEVER NO IMPACT
TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED.

WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE/LIGHT SW TONIGHT. A SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 16Z TO 19Z THURSDAY.

  ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BRIEF...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED NUISANCE
FLOODING. A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 302031
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
431 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MOVES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. ANY CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING. HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE AS
WELL...AND RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN/AROUND
NYC...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. LOWS IN OUTLYING PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG
ISLAND WILL DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA AND PASSES JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL
CWA. CAPE VALUES WILL RISE CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KT. THE LIFTED INDEX WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK... GENERALLY RANGING FROM -1 TO -2C. WITH THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT
CHANCE...AND WILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS STARTING IN THE
LATE MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY EVENING. DO THINK STORMS
WILL BE HARD TO MAKE IT TO FAR SE CT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY...AND WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THOSE
AREAS.

MAX TEMPS GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR NYC...LONG
ISLAND...NE NJ...AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. LIGHT...ONSHORE
FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH SFC DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOW-MID 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
AWAY FROM NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AREAS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BERMUDA RIDGE
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE 12Z/GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST FORCING FOR CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHILE 12Z/ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST FORCING TO
BE ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND MAINTAIN
40/50 POP FOR THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SCHC
POPS ON MONDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COULD SEE CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FT
DEVELOP BY MID-LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE AREAS
N/W OF NYC COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHRA THURSDAY PRIOR TO 18Z...BUT
PROBABILITY OF THIS IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

SEABREEZE ALREADY THROUGH KJFK/KBDR/KGON/KISP. SHOULD PUSH THROUGH
KLGA/KHPN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW EXPECT TO APPROACH BUT
NOT MOVE THROUGH KTEB AND KEWR...SO ONLY BACK WINDS TO SW AT THOSE
LOCATIONS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/LIGHT SW AGAIN TONIGHT.
SEABREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP A TAD EARLY THURSDAY THAN IT DID TODAY.

  ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED COULD BE OFF
+/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO SEABREEZE FORECAST...BUT CHANGES IN WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO SEABREEZE FORECAST...BUT CHANGES IN WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED COULD BE OFF
+/- 1-2 HOURS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE
IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING EACH DAY.



&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BRIEF...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED NUISANCE
FLOODING. A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MALOIT/MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS










000
FXUS61 KOKX 301918
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
318 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MOVES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. ANY CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING. HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE AS
WELL...AND RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN/AROUND
NYC...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. LOWS IN OUTLYING PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG
ISLAND WILL DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA AND PASSES JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL
CWA. CAPE VALUES WILL RISE CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KT. THE LIFTED INDEX WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK... GENERALLY RANGING FROM -1 TO -2C. WITH THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT
CHANCE...AND WILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS STARTING IN THE
LATE MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY EVENING. DO THINK STORMS
WILL BE HARD TO MAKE IT TO FAR SE CT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY...AND WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THOSE
AREAS.

MAX TEMPS GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR NYC...LONG
ISLAND...NE NJ...AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. LIGHT...ONSHORE
FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH SFC DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOW-MID 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
AWAY FROM NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY...INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AREAS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BERMUDA RIDGE
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE 12Z/GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST FORCING FOR CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHILE 12Z/ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST FORCING TO
BE ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND MAINTAIN
40/50 POP FOR THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SCHC
POPS ON MONDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COULD SEE CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FT
DEVELOP BY MID-LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
AREAS N/W OF NYC COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHRA THURSDAY PRIOR TO
18Z...BUT PROBABILITY OF THIS IS TO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

SEABREEZE ALREADY THROUGH KJFK/KBDR/KGON. SHOULD PUSH THROUGH
KISP/KLGA/KHPN THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW EXPECT TO APPROACH BUT NOT
MOVE THROUGH KTEB AND KEWR...SO ONLY BACK WINDS TO SW AT THOSE
LOCATIONS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/LIGHT SW AGAIN TONIGHT.
SEABREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP A TAD EARLY THURSDAY THAN IT DID TODAY.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED COULD BE OFF
+/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO SEABREEZE FORECAST...BUT CHANGES IN WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO SEABREEZE FORECAST...BUT CHANGES IN WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY...VFR...EXCPEPT MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE
IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BRIEF...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED NUISANCE
FLOODING. A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KOKX 301918
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
318 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MOVES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. ANY CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING. HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE AS
WELL...AND RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN/AROUND
NYC...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. LOWS IN OUTLYING PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG
ISLAND WILL DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA AND PASSES JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL
CWA. CAPE VALUES WILL RISE CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KT. THE LIFTED INDEX WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK... GENERALLY RANGING FROM -1 TO -2C. WITH THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT
CHANCE...AND WILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS STARTING IN THE
LATE MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY EVENING. DO THINK STORMS
WILL BE HARD TO MAKE IT TO FAR SE CT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY...AND WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THOSE
AREAS.

MAX TEMPS GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR NYC...LONG
ISLAND...NE NJ...AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. LIGHT...ONSHORE
FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH SFC DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOW-MID 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
AWAY FROM NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY...INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AREAS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BERMUDA RIDGE
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE 12Z/GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST FORCING FOR CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHILE 12Z/ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST FORCING TO
BE ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND MAINTAIN
40/50 POP FOR THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SCHC
POPS ON MONDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COULD SEE CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FT
DEVELOP BY MID-LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
AREAS N/W OF NYC COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHRA THURSDAY PRIOR TO
18Z...BUT PROBABILITY OF THIS IS TO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

SEABREEZE ALREADY THROUGH KJFK/KBDR/KGON. SHOULD PUSH THROUGH
KISP/KLGA/KHPN THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW EXPECT TO APPROACH BUT NOT
MOVE THROUGH KTEB AND KEWR...SO ONLY BACK WINDS TO SW AT THOSE
LOCATIONS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/LIGHT SW AGAIN TONIGHT.
SEABREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP A TAD EARLY THURSDAY THAN IT DID TODAY.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED COULD BE OFF
+/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO SEABREEZE FORECAST...BUT CHANGES IN WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO SEABREEZE FORECAST...BUT CHANGES IN WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY...VFR...EXCPEPT MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE
IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BRIEF...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED NUISANCE
FLOODING. A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KOKX 301755
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
155 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
INLAND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON CU FIELD...AIDED BY A WEAK H5
SHORTWAVE...CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. CONDS TOO DRY FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LOCAL CWA.

HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...CLOSE TO A
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE BLEND AND CONSISTENT WITH MIXING UP TO 825
MB.

DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY
SKIES TO THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS
SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WILL BE WEAK AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE
ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ONLY ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS ON TRACK...SO
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR FRI WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW SHRA AND TSTMS. LEFT THE LOW CHC POPS AT 30.
MARITIME LAYER OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE CWA...SO TSTM CHCS APPEAR TO
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY EVE...EVEN FAR INLAND.

SUBTROPICAL TAP APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE GFS
INDICATES THE BEST FORCING AND RESULTANT RAIN CHCS ON SUNDAY...
WITH THE ECMWF ON SAT. MAINTAINED AROUND 40 POP FOR THE WEEKEND...
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL RAIN ALL WEEKEND ATTM.
WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DID INCREASE
RAINFALL INTENSITY TO MDT.

COLD FROPA EXPECTED ON TUE PER THE 00Z DATA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED
PRE-FRONTAL TROF SHOULD USHER THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE...
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MON. FOR THIS REASON THE SCHC POPS ON MON
ARE APPROPRIATE...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE DRIER
AIR MASS TUE AFTN.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD ARE CLOSE TO THE GRAPHICAL MOS...WITH THE
PREV 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPREAD
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COULD SEE CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FT
DEVELOP BY MIDLATE THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
AREAS N/W OF NYC COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHRA THURSDAY PRIOR TO
18Z...BUT PROBABILITY OF THIS IS TO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

SEABREEZE ALREADY THROUGH KJFK/KBDR/KGON. SHOULD PUSH THROUGH
KISP/KLGA/KHON THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW EXPECT TO APPROACH BUT NOT
MOVE THROUGH KTEB AND KEWR...SO ONLY BACK WINDS TO SW AT THOSE
LOCATIONS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/LIGHT SW AGAIN TONIGHT.
SEABREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP A TAD EARLY THURSDAY THAN IT DID TODAY.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHNAGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED COULD BE OFF
+/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO SEABREEZE FORECAST...BUT CHNAGES IN WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO SEABREEZE FORECAST...BUT CHNAGES IN WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY...VFR...EXCPEPT MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE
IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF
UPR LVL FEATURES. SOME AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE THESE OCCUR.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 301755
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
155 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
INLAND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON CU FIELD...AIDED BY A WEAK H5
SHORTWAVE...CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. CONDS TOO DRY FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LOCAL CWA.

HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...CLOSE TO A
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE BLEND AND CONSISTENT WITH MIXING UP TO 825
MB.

DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY
SKIES TO THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS
SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WILL BE WEAK AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE
ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ONLY ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS ON TRACK...SO
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR FRI WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW SHRA AND TSTMS. LEFT THE LOW CHC POPS AT 30.
MARITIME LAYER OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE CWA...SO TSTM CHCS APPEAR TO
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY EVE...EVEN FAR INLAND.

SUBTROPICAL TAP APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE GFS
INDICATES THE BEST FORCING AND RESULTANT RAIN CHCS ON SUNDAY...
WITH THE ECMWF ON SAT. MAINTAINED AROUND 40 POP FOR THE WEEKEND...
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL RAIN ALL WEEKEND ATTM.
WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DID INCREASE
RAINFALL INTENSITY TO MDT.

COLD FROPA EXPECTED ON TUE PER THE 00Z DATA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED
PRE-FRONTAL TROF SHOULD USHER THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE...
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MON. FOR THIS REASON THE SCHC POPS ON MON
ARE APPROPRIATE...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE DRIER
AIR MASS TUE AFTN.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD ARE CLOSE TO THE GRAPHICAL MOS...WITH THE
PREV 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPREAD
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COULD SEE CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FT
DEVELOP BY MIDLATE THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
AREAS N/W OF NYC COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHRA THURSDAY PRIOR TO
18Z...BUT PROBABILITY OF THIS IS TO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

SEABREEZE ALREADY THROUGH KJFK/KBDR/KGON. SHOULD PUSH THROUGH
KISP/KLGA/KHON THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW EXPECT TO APPROACH BUT NOT
MOVE THROUGH KTEB AND KEWR...SO ONLY BACK WINDS TO SW AT THOSE
LOCATIONS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/LIGHT SW AGAIN TONIGHT.
SEABREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP A TAD EARLY THURSDAY THAN IT DID TODAY.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHNAGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED COULD BE OFF
+/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO SEABREEZE FORECAST...BUT CHNAGES IN WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO SEABREEZE FORECAST...BUT CHNAGES IN WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY...VFR...EXCPEPT MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE
IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF
UPR LVL FEATURES. SOME AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE THESE OCCUR.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 301645
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1245 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
INLAND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON CU FIELD...AIDED BY A WEAK H5
SHORTWAVE...CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. CONDS TOO DRY FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LOCAL CWA.

HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...CLOSE TO A
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE BLEND AND CONSISTENT WITH MIXING UP TO 825
MB.

DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY
SKIES TO THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS
SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WILL BE WEAK AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE
ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ONLY ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS ON TRACK...SO
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR FRI WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW SHRA AND TSTMS. LEFT THE LOW CHC POPS AT 30.
MARITIME LAYER OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE CWA...SO TSTM CHCS APPEAR TO
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY EVE...EVEN FAR INLAND.

SUBTROPICAL TAP APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE GFS
INDICATES THE BEST FORCING AND RESULTANT RAIN CHCS ON SUNDAY...
WITH THE ECMWF ON SAT. MAINTAINED AROUND 40 POP FOR THE WEEKEND...
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL RAIN ALL WEEKEND ATTM.
WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DID INCREASE
RAINFALL INTENSITY TO MDT.

COLD FROPA EXPECTED ON TUE PER THE 00Z DATA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED
PRE-FRONTAL TROF SHOULD USHER THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE...
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MON. FOR THIS REASON THE SCHC POPS ON MON
ARE APPROPRIATE...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE DRIER
AIR MASS TUE AFTN.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD ARE CLOSE TO THE GRAPHICAL MOS...WITH THE
PREV 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPREAD
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE UNTIL SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY SW
TO S 10KT OR LESS.

SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY 18Z THURSDAY BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS
AT THIS TIME.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF NE WIND OCCURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE TOO EARLY BY AN HOUR
OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO SEA BREEZE FORECAST BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF
UPR LVL FEATURES. SOME AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE THESE OCCUR.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN











000
FXUS61 KOKX 301645
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1245 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
INLAND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON CU FIELD...AIDED BY A WEAK H5
SHORTWAVE...CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. CONDS TOO DRY FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LOCAL CWA.

HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...CLOSE TO A
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE BLEND AND CONSISTENT WITH MIXING UP TO 825
MB.

DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY
SKIES TO THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS
SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WILL BE WEAK AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE
ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ONLY ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS ON TRACK...SO
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR FRI WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW SHRA AND TSTMS. LEFT THE LOW CHC POPS AT 30.
MARITIME LAYER OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE CWA...SO TSTM CHCS APPEAR TO
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY EVE...EVEN FAR INLAND.

SUBTROPICAL TAP APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE GFS
INDICATES THE BEST FORCING AND RESULTANT RAIN CHCS ON SUNDAY...
WITH THE ECMWF ON SAT. MAINTAINED AROUND 40 POP FOR THE WEEKEND...
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL RAIN ALL WEEKEND ATTM.
WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DID INCREASE
RAINFALL INTENSITY TO MDT.

COLD FROPA EXPECTED ON TUE PER THE 00Z DATA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED
PRE-FRONTAL TROF SHOULD USHER THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE...
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MON. FOR THIS REASON THE SCHC POPS ON MON
ARE APPROPRIATE...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE DRIER
AIR MASS TUE AFTN.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD ARE CLOSE TO THE GRAPHICAL MOS...WITH THE
PREV 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPREAD
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE UNTIL SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY SW
TO S 10KT OR LESS.

SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY 18Z THURSDAY BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS
AT THIS TIME.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF NE WIND OCCURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE TOO EARLY BY AN HOUR
OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO SEA BREEZE FORECAST BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF
UPR LVL FEATURES. SOME AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE THESE OCCUR.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN












000
FXUS61 KOKX 301122
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
722 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
INLAND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BKN-OVC PATCHES OF ALTOCU OVER ERN LI SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING.

MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT ON LIMITED MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES...SO FCST IS
DRY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD HOWEVER BE REACHED...SO EXPECT SCT CU
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BKN AT TIMES NW OF NYC.

EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...CLOSE TO A GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE BLEND AND CONSISTENT WITH MIXING UP TO 825 MB.

DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY
SKIES TO THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS
SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WILL BE WEAK AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE
ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ONLY ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS ON TRACK...SO
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR FRI WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW SHRA AND TSTMS. LEFT THE LOW CHC POPS AT 30.
MARITIME LAYER OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE CWA...SO TSTM CHCS APPEAR TO
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY EVE...EVEN FAR INLAND.

SUBTROPICAL TAP APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE GFS
INDICATES THE BEST FORCING AND RESULTANT RAIN CHCS ON SUNDAY...
WITH THE ECMWF ON SAT. MAINTAINED AROUND 40 POP FOR THE WEEKEND...
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL RAIN ALL WEEKEND ATTM.
WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DID INCREASE
RAINFALL INTENSITY TO MDT.

COLD FROPA EXPECTED ON TUE PER THE 00Z DATA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED
PRE-FRONTAL TROF SHOULD USHER THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE...
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MON. FOR THIS REASON THE SCHC POPS ON MON
ARE APPROPRIATE...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE DRIER
AIR MASS TUE AFTN.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD ARE CLOSE TO THE GRAPHICAL MOS...WITH THE
PREV 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPREAD
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE UNTIL SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY SW
TO S 10KT OR LESS.

SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY 18Z THURSDAY BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS
AT THIS TIME.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF NE WIND OCCURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE TOO EARLY BY AN HOUR
OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO SEA BREEZE FORECAST BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF
UPR LVL FEATURES. SOME AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE THESE OCCUR.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JMC
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN












000
FXUS61 KOKX 301122
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
722 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
INLAND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BKN-OVC PATCHES OF ALTOCU OVER ERN LI SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING.

MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT ON LIMITED MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES...SO FCST IS
DRY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD HOWEVER BE REACHED...SO EXPECT SCT CU
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BKN AT TIMES NW OF NYC.

EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...CLOSE TO A GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE BLEND AND CONSISTENT WITH MIXING UP TO 825 MB.

DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY
SKIES TO THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS
SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WILL BE WEAK AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE
ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ONLY ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS ON TRACK...SO
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR FRI WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW SHRA AND TSTMS. LEFT THE LOW CHC POPS AT 30.
MARITIME LAYER OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE CWA...SO TSTM CHCS APPEAR TO
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY EVE...EVEN FAR INLAND.

SUBTROPICAL TAP APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE GFS
INDICATES THE BEST FORCING AND RESULTANT RAIN CHCS ON SUNDAY...
WITH THE ECMWF ON SAT. MAINTAINED AROUND 40 POP FOR THE WEEKEND...
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL RAIN ALL WEEKEND ATTM.
WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DID INCREASE
RAINFALL INTENSITY TO MDT.

COLD FROPA EXPECTED ON TUE PER THE 00Z DATA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED
PRE-FRONTAL TROF SHOULD USHER THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE...
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MON. FOR THIS REASON THE SCHC POPS ON MON
ARE APPROPRIATE...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE DRIER
AIR MASS TUE AFTN.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD ARE CLOSE TO THE GRAPHICAL MOS...WITH THE
PREV 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPREAD
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE UNTIL SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY SW
TO S 10KT OR LESS.

SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY 18Z THURSDAY BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS
AT THIS TIME.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF NE WIND OCCURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE TOO EARLY BY AN HOUR
OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO SEA BREEZE FORECAST BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF
UPR LVL FEATURES. SOME AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE THESE OCCUR.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JMC
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN











000
FXUS61 KOKX 300826
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
426 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
INLAND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BKN PATCHES OF ALTOCU INLAND...ALSO IN NYC AND PARTS OF LONG
ISLAND...SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING.

MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT ON LIMITED MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES...SO FCST IS
DRY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD HOWEVER BE REACHED...SO EXPECT SCT CU
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BKN AT TIMES NW OF NYC.

EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...CLOSE TO A GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE BLEND AND CONSISTENT WITH MIXING UP TO 825 MB.

DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY
SKIES TO THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS
SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WILL BE WEAK AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE
ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ONLY ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS ON TRACK...SO
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR FRI WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW SHRA AND TSTMS. LEFT THE LOW CHC POPS AT 30.
MARITIME LAYER OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE CWA...SO TSTM CHCS APPEAR TO
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY EVE...EVEN FAR INLAND.

SUBTROPICAL TAP APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE GFS
INDICATES THE BEST FORCING AND RESULTANT RAIN CHCS ON SUNDAY...
WITH THE ECMWF ON SAT. MAINTAINED AROUND 40 POP FOR THE WEEKEND...
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL RAIN ALL WEEKEND ATTM.
WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DID INCREASE
RAINFALL INTENSITY TO MDT.

COLD FROPA EXPECTED ON TUE PER THE 00Z DATA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED
PRE-FRONTAL TROF SHOULD USHER THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE...
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MON. FOR THIS REASON THE SCHC POPS ON MON
ARE APPROPRIATE...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE DRIER
AIR MASS TUE AFTN.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD ARE CLOSE TO THE GRAPHICAL MOS...WITH THE
PREV 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPREAD
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING. SEA
BREEZES THEN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME TERMINALS.
WINDS GENERALLY SW TO S 10KT OR LESS.

BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN PATCHES ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD SCATTER OUT
BY SUNRISE.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF NE WIND OCCURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE TOO EARLY BY AN HOUR
OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO SEA BREEZE FORECAST BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDS NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF
UPR LVL FEATURES. SOME AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE THESE OCCUR.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN










000
FXUS61 KOKX 300826
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
426 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
INLAND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BKN PATCHES OF ALTOCU INLAND...ALSO IN NYC AND PARTS OF LONG
ISLAND...SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING.

MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT ON LIMITED MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES...SO FCST IS
DRY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD HOWEVER BE REACHED...SO EXPECT SCT CU
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BKN AT TIMES NW OF NYC.

EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...CLOSE TO A GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE BLEND AND CONSISTENT WITH MIXING UP TO 825 MB.

DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY
SKIES TO THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS
SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WILL BE WEAK AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE
ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ONLY ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS ON TRACK...SO
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR FRI WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW SHRA AND TSTMS. LEFT THE LOW CHC POPS AT 30.
MARITIME LAYER OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE CWA...SO TSTM CHCS APPEAR TO
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY EVE...EVEN FAR INLAND.

SUBTROPICAL TAP APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE GFS
INDICATES THE BEST FORCING AND RESULTANT RAIN CHCS ON SUNDAY...
WITH THE ECMWF ON SAT. MAINTAINED AROUND 40 POP FOR THE WEEKEND...
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL RAIN ALL WEEKEND ATTM.
WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DID INCREASE
RAINFALL INTENSITY TO MDT.

COLD FROPA EXPECTED ON TUE PER THE 00Z DATA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED
PRE-FRONTAL TROF SHOULD USHER THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE...
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MON. FOR THIS REASON THE SCHC POPS ON MON
ARE APPROPRIATE...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE DRIER
AIR MASS TUE AFTN.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD ARE CLOSE TO THE GRAPHICAL MOS...WITH THE
PREV 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPREAD
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING. SEA
BREEZES THEN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME TERMINALS.
WINDS GENERALLY SW TO S 10KT OR LESS.

BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN PATCHES ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD SCATTER OUT
BY SUNRISE.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF NE WIND OCCURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE TOO EARLY BY AN HOUR
OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO SEA BREEZE FORECAST BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDS NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF
UPR LVL FEATURES. SOME AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE THESE OCCUR.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN









000
FXUS61 KOKX 300806 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED SYNOPSIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
404 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
INLAND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BKN PATCHES OF ALTOCU INLAND...ALSO IN NYC AND PARTS OF LONG
ISLAND...SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING.

MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT ON LIMITED MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES...SO FCST IS
DRY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD HOWEVER BE REACHED...SO EXPECT SCT CU
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BKN AT TIMES NW OF NYC.

EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...CLOSE TO A GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE BLEND AND CONSISTENT WITH MIXING UP TO 825 MB.

DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY
SKIES TO THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS
SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WILL BE WEAK AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE
ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ONLY ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS ON TRACK...SO
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR FRI WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW SHRA AND TSTMS. LEFT THE LOW CHC POPS AT 30.
MARITIME LAYER OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE CWA...SO TSTM CHCS APPEAR TO
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY EVE...EVEN FAR INLAND.

SUBTROPICAL TAP APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE GFS
INDICATES THE BEST FORCING AND RESULTANT RAIN CHCS ON SUNDAY...
WITH THE ECMWF ON SAT. MAINTAINED AROUND 40 POP FOR THE WEEKEND...
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL RAIN ALL WEEKEND ATTM.
WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DID INCREASE
RAINFALL INTENSITY TO MDT.

COLD FROPA EXPECTED ON TUE PER THE 00Z DATA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED
PRE-FRONTAL TROF SHOULD USHER THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE...
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MON. FOR THIS REASON THE SCHC POPS ON MON
ARE APPROPRIATE...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE DRIER
AIR MASS TUE AFTN.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD ARE CLOSE TO THE GRAPHICAL MOS...WITH THE
PREV 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPREAD
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...LASTING INTO WEDS MORNING.
SEA BREEZES THEN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME
TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY SW TO S 10KT OR LESS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU-FRI...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SAT-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF
UPR LVL FEATURES. SOME AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE THESE OCCUR.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/MARINE...GOODMAN/JMC
NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...JMC
AVIATION...LN











000
FXUS61 KOKX 300806 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED SYNOPSIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
404 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
INLAND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BKN PATCHES OF ALTOCU INLAND...ALSO IN NYC AND PARTS OF LONG
ISLAND...SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING.

MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT ON LIMITED MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES...SO FCST IS
DRY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD HOWEVER BE REACHED...SO EXPECT SCT CU
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BKN AT TIMES NW OF NYC.

EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...CLOSE TO A GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE BLEND AND CONSISTENT WITH MIXING UP TO 825 MB.

DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY
SKIES TO THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS
SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WILL BE WEAK AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE
ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ONLY ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS ON TRACK...SO
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR FRI WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW SHRA AND TSTMS. LEFT THE LOW CHC POPS AT 30.
MARITIME LAYER OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE CWA...SO TSTM CHCS APPEAR TO
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY EVE...EVEN FAR INLAND.

SUBTROPICAL TAP APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE GFS
INDICATES THE BEST FORCING AND RESULTANT RAIN CHCS ON SUNDAY...
WITH THE ECMWF ON SAT. MAINTAINED AROUND 40 POP FOR THE WEEKEND...
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL RAIN ALL WEEKEND ATTM.
WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DID INCREASE
RAINFALL INTENSITY TO MDT.

COLD FROPA EXPECTED ON TUE PER THE 00Z DATA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED
PRE-FRONTAL TROF SHOULD USHER THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE...
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MON. FOR THIS REASON THE SCHC POPS ON MON
ARE APPROPRIATE...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE DRIER
AIR MASS TUE AFTN.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD ARE CLOSE TO THE GRAPHICAL MOS...WITH THE
PREV 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPREAD
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...LASTING INTO WEDS MORNING.
SEA BREEZES THEN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME
TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY SW TO S 10KT OR LESS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU-FRI...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SAT-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF
UPR LVL FEATURES. SOME AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE THESE OCCUR.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/MARINE...GOODMAN/JMC
NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...JMC
AVIATION...LN










000
FXUS61 KOKX 300804
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
404 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY WORK
WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND..WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BKN PATCHES OF ALTOCU INLAND...ALSO IN NYC AND PARTS OF LONG
ISLAND...SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING.

MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT ON LIMITED MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES...SO FCST IS
DRY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD HOWEVER BE REACHED...SO EXPECT SCT CU
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BKN AT TIMES NW OF NYC.

EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...CLOSE TO A GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE BLEND AND CONSISTENT WITH MIXING UP TO 825 MB.

DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY
SKIES TO THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS
SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WILL BE WEAK AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE
ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ONLY ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS ON TRACK...SO
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR FRI WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW SHRA AND TSTMS. LEFT THE LOW CHC POPS AT 30.
MARITIME LAYER OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE CWA...SO TSTM CHCS APPEAR TO
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY EVE...EVEN FAR INLAND.

SUBTROPICAL TAP APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE GFS
INDICATES THE BEST FORCING AND RESULTANT RAIN CHCS ON SUNDAY...
WITH THE ECMWF ON SAT. MAINTAINED AROUND 40 POP FOR THE WEEKEND...
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL RAIN ALL WEEKEND ATTM.
WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DID INCREASE
RAINFALL INTENSITY TO MDT.

COLD FROPA EXPECTED ON TUE PER THE 00Z DATA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED
PRE-FRONTAL TROF SHOULD USHER THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE...
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MON. FOR THIS REASON THE SCHC POPS ON MON
ARE APPROPRIATE...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE DRIER
AIR MASS TUE AFTN.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD ARE CLOSE TO THE GRAPHICAL MOS...WITH THE
PREV 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPREAD
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...LASTING INTO WEDS MORNING.
SEA BREEZES THEN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME
TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY SW TO S 10KT OR LESS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU-FRI...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SAT-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF
UPR LVL FEATURES. SOME AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE THESE OCCUR.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/MARINE...GOODMAN/JMC
NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...JMC
AVIATION...LN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 300646
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
246 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY WORK
WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND..WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STILL SEEING BKN PATCHES OF HIGH-BASED STRATOCU INLAND...ALSO IN
NYC AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OFFSHORE IN CONVERGENCE ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
TROUGH. RADAR SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY REMAINING
OFFSHORE...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY OF THESE SHOWERS TO DRIFT
ONTO LAND.

LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND AND IN THE LONG
ISLAND PINE BARRENS...TO 60-65 IN AND NEAR NYC. DRY AIR REMAINS
IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT AS TO AMT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON TO LEAD TO SHOWERS AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES. 29/21Z SREF MEAN STILL SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF
SPRINKLES IN ORANGE COUNTY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ATTM OPTED
TO KEEP FCST DRY. EVEN IF ANY SHOWERS DO MANAGE TO MAKE IT INTO
ORANGE...MID LEVEL CAP SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDER.

DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY TO
THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS SHORTWAVES
PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL BE WEAK
AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW.

A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE
ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION EXCEPT FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING AND WORKING EAST AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THERE
ARE CLEARLY TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS...AS WELL AS WITH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT RETROGRADES WEST IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THU INTO SAT. THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BRING A
BOUT OF STEADY RAINS INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO THE SAT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...BUT THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE AND THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THU INTO FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE EAST WITH A
RETURN SLY FLOW. AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. OVERALL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ARE LOW DURING THIS TIME WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
IN THE AFT/EVE HOURS IN THE HILLS NW OF NYC...DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE HEELS
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE GGEM AND GFS BOTH ARE SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. THUS...CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO MON
WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO NE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...LASTING INTO WEDS MORNING.
SEA BREEZES THEN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME
TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY SW TO S 10KT OR LESS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDS NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FROM THURSDAY THOUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS WEEKEND.
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FOR SPECIFICS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW










000
FXUS61 KOKX 300646
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
246 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY WORK
WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND..WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STILL SEEING BKN PATCHES OF HIGH-BASED STRATOCU INLAND...ALSO IN
NYC AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OFFSHORE IN CONVERGENCE ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
TROUGH. RADAR SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY REMAINING
OFFSHORE...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY OF THESE SHOWERS TO DRIFT
ONTO LAND.

LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND AND IN THE LONG
ISLAND PINE BARRENS...TO 60-65 IN AND NEAR NYC. DRY AIR REMAINS
IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT AS TO AMT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON TO LEAD TO SHOWERS AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES. 29/21Z SREF MEAN STILL SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF
SPRINKLES IN ORANGE COUNTY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ATTM OPTED
TO KEEP FCST DRY. EVEN IF ANY SHOWERS DO MANAGE TO MAKE IT INTO
ORANGE...MID LEVEL CAP SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDER.

DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY TO
THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS SHORTWAVES
PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL BE WEAK
AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW.

A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE
ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION EXCEPT FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING AND WORKING EAST AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THERE
ARE CLEARLY TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS...AS WELL AS WITH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT RETROGRADES WEST IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THU INTO SAT. THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BRING A
BOUT OF STEADY RAINS INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO THE SAT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...BUT THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE AND THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THU INTO FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE EAST WITH A
RETURN SLY FLOW. AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. OVERALL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ARE LOW DURING THIS TIME WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
IN THE AFT/EVE HOURS IN THE HILLS NW OF NYC...DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE HEELS
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE GGEM AND GFS BOTH ARE SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. THUS...CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO MON
WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO NE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...LASTING INTO WEDS MORNING.
SEA BREEZES THEN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME
TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY SW TO S 10KT OR LESS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDS NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FROM THURSDAY THOUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS WEEKEND.
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FOR SPECIFICS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW











000
FXUS61 KOKX 300225
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1025 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WORK WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DISSIPATE AND WIND HAS BECOME NEAR CALM
ACROSS SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS. THIS HAS LEAD TO TEMPERATURES NOW
FALLING OFF MORE QUICKLY...AND IN SOME CASES BELOW THE FORECAST
LOWS. SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WHETHER THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND PASSING OF WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE SPRINKLES TO MAYBE ISOLD
SHRA/TSTM ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST
BULLISH FOLLOWED BY THE SREF...THE ECMWF IS DRY AND THE CMC REG
AND GFS SUGGEST LIMITING TO WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE THE MID LEVEL CAP THAT DEVELOPS MIGHT
NOT ERODE...EVEN OVER ORANGE COUNTY. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NW 1/2 OF ORANGE
COUNTY...WHERE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HOWEVER...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7500-8500 FT...AND
500 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TO MUCH CLOUD
DEPTH TO GET LIGHTNING AND/OR SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL...SO WENT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE AS WELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WHERE THE CAP IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
OVER NW ORANGE COUNTY...THE QUESTION IS ARE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SPRINKLES UNDER THE CAP. IF THIS WERE THE
COOL SEASON WOULD BE INCLINED TO SAY YES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO DO SO IN THE WARM SEASON...AS MODELS ON OCCASION OVERDO
THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ELSEWHERE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME INSTABILITY CLOUDS LIKE
TODAY...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT 850 HPA
NW ZONES PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE NE AND MID LEVEL INVERSION
WEAKER THAN TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING...SO DO EXPECT SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON THIS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING AND WORKING EAST AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THERE
ARE CLEARLY TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS...AS WELL AS WITH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT RETROGRADES WEST IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THU INTO SAT. THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BRING A
BOUT OF STEADY RAINS INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO THE SAT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...BUT THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE AND THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THU INTO FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE EAST WITH A
RETURN SLY FLOW. AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. OVERALL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ARE LOW DURING THIS TIME WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
IN THE AFT/EVE HOURS IN THE HILLS NW OF NYC...DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE HEELS
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE GGEM AND GFS BOTH ARE SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. THUS...CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO MON
WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO NE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...LASTING INTO WEDS MORNING.
SEA BREEZES THEN DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME
TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY SW TO S 10KT OR LESS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDS NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FROM THURSDAY THOUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS WEEKEND.
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FOR SPECIFICS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 300225
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1025 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WORK WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DISSIPATE AND WIND HAS BECOME NEAR CALM
ACROSS SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS. THIS HAS LEAD TO TEMPERATURES NOW
FALLING OFF MORE QUICKLY...AND IN SOME CASES BELOW THE FORECAST
LOWS. SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WHETHER THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND PASSING OF WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE SPRINKLES TO MAYBE ISOLD
SHRA/TSTM ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST
BULLISH FOLLOWED BY THE SREF...THE ECMWF IS DRY AND THE CMC REG
AND GFS SUGGEST LIMITING TO WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE THE MID LEVEL CAP THAT DEVELOPS MIGHT
NOT ERODE...EVEN OVER ORANGE COUNTY. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NW 1/2 OF ORANGE
COUNTY...WHERE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HOWEVER...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7500-8500 FT...AND
500 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TO MUCH CLOUD
DEPTH TO GET LIGHTNING AND/OR SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL...SO WENT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE AS WELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WHERE THE CAP IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
OVER NW ORANGE COUNTY...THE QUESTION IS ARE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SPRINKLES UNDER THE CAP. IF THIS WERE THE
COOL SEASON WOULD BE INCLINED TO SAY YES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO DO SO IN THE WARM SEASON...AS MODELS ON OCCASION OVERDO
THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ELSEWHERE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME INSTABILITY CLOUDS LIKE
TODAY...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT 850 HPA
NW ZONES PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE NE AND MID LEVEL INVERSION
WEAKER THAN TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING...SO DO EXPECT SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON THIS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING AND WORKING EAST AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THERE
ARE CLEARLY TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS...AS WELL AS WITH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT RETROGRADES WEST IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THU INTO SAT. THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BRING A
BOUT OF STEADY RAINS INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO THE SAT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...BUT THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE AND THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THU INTO FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE EAST WITH A
RETURN SLY FLOW. AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. OVERALL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ARE LOW DURING THIS TIME WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
IN THE AFT/EVE HOURS IN THE HILLS NW OF NYC...DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE HEELS
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE GGEM AND GFS BOTH ARE SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. THUS...CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO MON
WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO NE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...LASTING INTO WEDS MORNING.
SEA BREEZES THEN DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME
TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY SW TO S 10KT OR LESS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDS NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FROM THURSDAY THOUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS WEEKEND.
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FOR SPECIFICS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 292337
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
737 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WORK WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INSTABILITY CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...WITH DEVELOPING
INVERSION FROM AROUND 750-650 HPA SERVING AS A LIMITING FACTOR.
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT...WEIGHED
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOWARDS WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. TO
ACHIEVE THIS USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WHETHER THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND PASSING OF WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE SPRINKLES TO MAYBE ISOLD
SHRA/TSTM ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST
BULLISH FOLLOWED BY THE SREF...THE ECMWF IS DRY AND THE CMC REG
AND GFS SUGGEST LIMITING TO WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE THE MID LEVEL CAP THAT DEVELOPS MIGHT
NOT ERODE...EVEN OVER ORANGE COUNTY. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NW 1/2 OF ORANGE
COUNTY...WHERE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HOWEVER...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7500-8500 FT...AND
500 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TO MUCH CLOUD
DEPTH TO GET LIGHTNING AND/OR SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL...SO WENT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE AS WELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WHERE THE CAP IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
OVER NW ORANGE COUNTY...THE QUESTION IS ARE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SPRINKLES UNDER THE CAP. IF THIS WERE THE
COOL SEASON WOULD BE INCLINED TO SAY YES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO DO SO IN THE WARM SEASON...AS MODELS ON OCCASION OVERDO
THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ELSEWHERE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME INSTABILITY CLOUDS LIKE
TODAY...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT 850 HPA
NW ZONES PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE NE AND MID LEVEL INVERSION
WEAKER THAN TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING...SO DO EXPECT SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON THIS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING AND WORKING EAST AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THERE
ARE CLEARLY TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS...AS WELL AS WITH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT RETROGRADES WEST IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THU INTO SAT. THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BRING A
BOUT OF STEADY RAINS INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO THE SAT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...BUT THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE AND THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THU INTO FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE EAST WITH A
RETURN SLY FLOW. AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. OVERALL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ARE LOW DURING THIS TIME WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
IN THE AFT/EVE HOURS IN THE HILLS NW OF NYC...DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE HEELS
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE GGEM AND GFS BOTH ARE SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. THUS...CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO MON
WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO NE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EAST OF THE CITY TERMINALS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OTHERWISE.

NW TO W WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...BCMG LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND LASTING INTO WEDS MORNING. SEA BREEZES THEN DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. SW FLOW 10KT OR LESS OUTSIDE OF SEA BREEZES.

  ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS MIGHT NOT SHIFT SW THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDS NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FROM THURSDAY THOUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FOR SPECIFICS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 292337
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
737 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WORK WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INSTABILITY CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...WITH DEVELOPING
INVERSION FROM AROUND 750-650 HPA SERVING AS A LIMITING FACTOR.
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT...WEIGHED
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOWARDS WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. TO
ACHIEVE THIS USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WHETHER THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND PASSING OF WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE SPRINKLES TO MAYBE ISOLD
SHRA/TSTM ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST
BULLISH FOLLOWED BY THE SREF...THE ECMWF IS DRY AND THE CMC REG
AND GFS SUGGEST LIMITING TO WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE THE MID LEVEL CAP THAT DEVELOPS MIGHT
NOT ERODE...EVEN OVER ORANGE COUNTY. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NW 1/2 OF ORANGE
COUNTY...WHERE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HOWEVER...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7500-8500 FT...AND
500 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TO MUCH CLOUD
DEPTH TO GET LIGHTNING AND/OR SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL...SO WENT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE AS WELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WHERE THE CAP IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
OVER NW ORANGE COUNTY...THE QUESTION IS ARE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SPRINKLES UNDER THE CAP. IF THIS WERE THE
COOL SEASON WOULD BE INCLINED TO SAY YES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO DO SO IN THE WARM SEASON...AS MODELS ON OCCASION OVERDO
THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ELSEWHERE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME INSTABILITY CLOUDS LIKE
TODAY...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT 850 HPA
NW ZONES PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE NE AND MID LEVEL INVERSION
WEAKER THAN TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING...SO DO EXPECT SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON THIS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING AND WORKING EAST AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THERE
ARE CLEARLY TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS...AS WELL AS WITH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT RETROGRADES WEST IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THU INTO SAT. THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BRING A
BOUT OF STEADY RAINS INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO THE SAT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...BUT THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE AND THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THU INTO FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE EAST WITH A
RETURN SLY FLOW. AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. OVERALL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ARE LOW DURING THIS TIME WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
IN THE AFT/EVE HOURS IN THE HILLS NW OF NYC...DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE HEELS
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE GGEM AND GFS BOTH ARE SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. THUS...CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO MON
WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO NE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EAST OF THE CITY TERMINALS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OTHERWISE.

NW TO W WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...BCMG LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND LASTING INTO WEDS MORNING. SEA BREEZES THEN DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. SW FLOW 10KT OR LESS OUTSIDE OF SEA BREEZES.

  ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS MIGHT NOT SHIFT SW THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDS NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FROM THURSDAY THOUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FOR SPECIFICS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 292053
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
453 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WORK WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INSTABILITY CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...WITH DEVELOPING
INVERSION FROM AROUND 750-650 HPA SERVING AS A LIMITING FACTOR.
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT...WEIGHED
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOWARDS WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. TO
ACHIEVE THIS USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF
RIP CURRENTS EARLY THIS EVENING AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WHETHER THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND PASSING OF WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE SPRINKLES TO MAYBE ISOLD
SHRA/TSTM ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST
BULLISH FOLLOWED BY THE SREF...THE ECMWF IS DRY AND THE CMC REG
AND GFS SUGGEST LIMITING TO WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE THE MID LEVEL CAP THAT DEVELOPS MIGHT
NOT ERODE...EVEN OVER ORANGE COUNTY. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NW 1/2 OF ORANGE
COUNTY...WHERE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HOWEVER...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7500-8500 FT...AND
500 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TO MUCH CLOUD
DEPTH TO GET LIGHTNING AND/OR SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL...SO WENT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE AS WELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WHERE THE CAP IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
OVER NW ORANGE COUNTY...THE QUESTION IS ARE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SPRINKLES UNDER THE CAP. IF THIS WERE THE
COOL SEASON WOULD BE INCLINED TO SAY YES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO DO SO IN THE WARM SEASON...AS MODELS ON OCCASION OVERDO
THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ELSEWHERE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME INSTABILITY CLOUDS LIKE
TODAY...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT 850 HPA
NW ZONES PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE NE AND MID LEVEL INVERSION
WEAKER THAN TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING...SO DO EXPECT SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON THIS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING AND WORKING EAST AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THERE
ARE CLEARLY TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS...AS WELL AS WITH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT RETROGRADES WEST IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THU INTO SAT. THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BRING A
BOUT OF STEADY RAINS INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO THE SAT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...BUT THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE AND THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THU INTO FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE EAST WITH A
RETURN SLY FLOW. AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. OVERALL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ARE LOW DURING THIS TIME WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
IN THE AFT/EVE HOURS IN THE HILLS NW OF NYC...DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE HEELS
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE GGEM AND GFS BOTH ARE SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. THUS...CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO MON
WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO NE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EAST OF THE CITY TERMINALS.

NW TO W WINDS FOR THE CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS WEST. KISP AND
KBDR MAY EXPERIENCE A COUPLE OF WIND SHIFTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY REMAINING NEARBY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING AT JFK
AS WELL.

VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 03-05Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FORECASTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 16-19KT THRU 00Z. CHANCE
THAT SEA BREEZE PUSHES THROUGH WITH A SSW WIND SHIFT SOMEWHERE IN
THE 00Z-02Z TIME FRAME.

KLGA FORECASTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 16-19KT POSSIBLE THRU
00Z TIMING OF WINDS BACKING WNW COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
WINDS MIGHT NOT BACK TO AROUND 300 MAGNETIC AND REMAIN AT OR NORTH
OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

KEWR FORECASTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL. WINDS
COULD BE BACKED TO 260-280 MAGNETIC AT TIMES BEFORE 23Z.

KTEB FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE COULD RETURN NORTH AND SHIFT
WINDS 240-210 MAGNETIC AS EARLY AS 23Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AT KSWF IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WILL BE
4 FT OR LESS AND ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS 1 FT OR LESS AS A
RESULT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FROM THURSDAY THOUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE
AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO OFFER
SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 292053
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
453 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WORK WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INSTABILITY CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...WITH DEVELOPING
INVERSION FROM AROUND 750-650 HPA SERVING AS A LIMITING FACTOR.
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT...WEIGHED
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOWARDS WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. TO
ACHIEVE THIS USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF
RIP CURRENTS EARLY THIS EVENING AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WHETHER THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND PASSING OF WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE SPRINKLES TO MAYBE ISOLD
SHRA/TSTM ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST
BULLISH FOLLOWED BY THE SREF...THE ECMWF IS DRY AND THE CMC REG
AND GFS SUGGEST LIMITING TO WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE THE MID LEVEL CAP THAT DEVELOPS MIGHT
NOT ERODE...EVEN OVER ORANGE COUNTY. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NW 1/2 OF ORANGE
COUNTY...WHERE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HOWEVER...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7500-8500 FT...AND
500 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TO MUCH CLOUD
DEPTH TO GET LIGHTNING AND/OR SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL...SO WENT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE AS WELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WHERE THE CAP IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
OVER NW ORANGE COUNTY...THE QUESTION IS ARE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SPRINKLES UNDER THE CAP. IF THIS WERE THE
COOL SEASON WOULD BE INCLINED TO SAY YES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO DO SO IN THE WARM SEASON...AS MODELS ON OCCASION OVERDO
THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ELSEWHERE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME INSTABILITY CLOUDS LIKE
TODAY...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT 850 HPA
NW ZONES PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE NE AND MID LEVEL INVERSION
WEAKER THAN TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING...SO DO EXPECT SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON THIS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING AND WORKING EAST AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THERE
ARE CLEARLY TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS...AS WELL AS WITH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT RETROGRADES WEST IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THU INTO SAT. THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BRING A
BOUT OF STEADY RAINS INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO THE SAT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...BUT THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE AND THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THU INTO FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE EAST WITH A
RETURN SLY FLOW. AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. OVERALL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ARE LOW DURING THIS TIME WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
IN THE AFT/EVE HOURS IN THE HILLS NW OF NYC...DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE HEELS
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE GGEM AND GFS BOTH ARE SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. THUS...CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO MON
WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO NE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EAST OF THE CITY TERMINALS.

NW TO W WINDS FOR THE CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS WEST. KISP AND
KBDR MAY EXPERIENCE A COUPLE OF WIND SHIFTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY REMAINING NEARBY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING AT JFK
AS WELL.

VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 03-05Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FORECASTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 16-19KT THRU 00Z. CHANCE
THAT SEA BREEZE PUSHES THROUGH WITH A SSW WIND SHIFT SOMEWHERE IN
THE 00Z-02Z TIME FRAME.

KLGA FORECASTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 16-19KT POSSIBLE THRU
00Z TIMING OF WINDS BACKING WNW COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
WINDS MIGHT NOT BACK TO AROUND 300 MAGNETIC AND REMAIN AT OR NORTH
OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

KEWR FORECASTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL. WINDS
COULD BE BACKED TO 260-280 MAGNETIC AT TIMES BEFORE 23Z.

KTEB FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE COULD RETURN NORTH AND SHIFT
WINDS 240-210 MAGNETIC AS EARLY AS 23Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AT KSWF IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WILL BE
4 FT OR LESS AND ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS 1 FT OR LESS AS A
RESULT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FROM THURSDAY THOUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE
AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO OFFER
SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 292006
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
406 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WORK WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INSTABILITY CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...WITH DEVELOPING
INVERSION FROM AROUND 750-650 HPA SERVING AS A LIMITING FACTOR.
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT...WEIGHED
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOWARDS WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. TO
ACHIEVE THIS USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF
RIP CURRENTS EARLY THIS EVENING AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WHETHER THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND PASSING OF WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE SPRINKLES TO MAYBE ISOLD
SHRA/TSTM ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST
BULLISH FOLLOWED BY THE SREF...THE ECMWF IS DRY AND THE CMC REG
AND GFS SUGGEST LIMITING TO WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE THE MID LEVEL CAP THAT DEVELOPS MIGHT
NOT ERODE...EVEN OVER ORANGE COUNTY. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NW 1/2 OF ORANGE
COUNTY...WHERE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HOWEVER...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7500-8500 FT...AND
500 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TO MUCH CLOUD
DEPTH TO GET LIGHTNING AND/OR SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL...SO WENT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE AS WELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WHERE THE CAP IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
OVER NW ORANGE COUNTY...THE QUESTION IS ARE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SPRINKLES UNDER THE CAP. IF THIS WERE THE
COOL SEASON WOULD BE INCLINED TO SAY YES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO DO SO IN THE WARM SEASON...AS MODELS ON OCCASION OVERDO
THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ELSEWHERE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME INSTABILITY CLOUDS LIKE
TODAY...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT 850 HPA
NW ZONES PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE NE AND MID LEVEL INVERSION
WEAKER THAN TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING...SO DO EXPECT SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON THIS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING AND WORKING EAST AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THERE
ARE CLEARLY TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS...AS WELL AS WITH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT RETROGRADES WEST IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THU INTO SAT. THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BRING A
BOUT OF STEADY RAINS INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO THE SAT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...BUT THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE AND THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THU INTO FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE EAST WITH A
RETURN SLY FLOW. AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. OVERALL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ARE LOW DURING THIS TIME WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
IN THE AFT/EVE HOURS IN THE HILLS NW OF NYC...DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE HEELS
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE GGEM AND GFS BOTH ARE SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. THUS...CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO MON
WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO NE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE CT COAST IS THROUGH THE CT COASTAL TERMINALS.
SEA BREEZE IS THROUGH SOUTHERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...BUT LIES ALONG THE
COAST IN NASSAU COUNTY AND BROOKLYN AND QUEENS. WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS...WILL BE HARD FOR SEA BREEZE TO
TRACK MUCH FARTHER INLAND. WILL KEEP WINDS AT KEWR WITH A W-NW
DIRECTION. FOR KLGA...WINDS WILL BACK FROM A NW TO A W FLOW BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. FOR KJFK...THINK THE SEA BREEZE MAY LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE TERMINAL FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN WINDS VARYING FROM
W-NW TO W-SW INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 03-05Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL HANG JUST SOUTH OF KJFK...
POSSIBLY LIFTING NORTH FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH 23Z.

KLGA FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS 320-340 MAG...BACKING TO 250-270 MAG
BY 22Z.

KEWR FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OCNL GUSTS TO 17 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z.

KTEB FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AT KSWF IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WILL BE
4 FT OR LESS AND ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS 1 FT OR LESS AS A
RESULT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FROM THURSDAY THOUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE
AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO OFFER
SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 292006
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
406 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WORK WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INSTABILITY CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...WITH DEVELOPING
INVERSION FROM AROUND 750-650 HPA SERVING AS A LIMITING FACTOR.
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT...WEIGHED
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOWARDS WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. TO
ACHIEVE THIS USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF
RIP CURRENTS EARLY THIS EVENING AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WHETHER THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND PASSING OF WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE SPRINKLES TO MAYBE ISOLD
SHRA/TSTM ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST
BULLISH FOLLOWED BY THE SREF...THE ECMWF IS DRY AND THE CMC REG
AND GFS SUGGEST LIMITING TO WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE THE MID LEVEL CAP THAT DEVELOPS MIGHT
NOT ERODE...EVEN OVER ORANGE COUNTY. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NW 1/2 OF ORANGE
COUNTY...WHERE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HOWEVER...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7500-8500 FT...AND
500 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TO MUCH CLOUD
DEPTH TO GET LIGHTNING AND/OR SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL...SO WENT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE AS WELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WHERE THE CAP IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
OVER NW ORANGE COUNTY...THE QUESTION IS ARE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SPRINKLES UNDER THE CAP. IF THIS WERE THE
COOL SEASON WOULD BE INCLINED TO SAY YES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO DO SO IN THE WARM SEASON...AS MODELS ON OCCASION OVERDO
THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ELSEWHERE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME INSTABILITY CLOUDS LIKE
TODAY...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT 850 HPA
NW ZONES PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE NE AND MID LEVEL INVERSION
WEAKER THAN TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING...SO DO EXPECT SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON THIS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING AND WORKING EAST AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THERE
ARE CLEARLY TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS...AS WELL AS WITH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT RETROGRADES WEST IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THU INTO SAT. THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BRING A
BOUT OF STEADY RAINS INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO THE SAT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...BUT THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE AND THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THU INTO FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE EAST WITH A
RETURN SLY FLOW. AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. OVERALL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ARE LOW DURING THIS TIME WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
IN THE AFT/EVE HOURS IN THE HILLS NW OF NYC...DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE HEELS
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE GGEM AND GFS BOTH ARE SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. THUS...CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO MON
WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO NE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE CT COAST IS THROUGH THE CT COASTAL TERMINALS.
SEA BREEZE IS THROUGH SOUTHERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...BUT LIES ALONG THE
COAST IN NASSAU COUNTY AND BROOKLYN AND QUEENS. WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS...WILL BE HARD FOR SEA BREEZE TO
TRACK MUCH FARTHER INLAND. WILL KEEP WINDS AT KEWR WITH A W-NW
DIRECTION. FOR KLGA...WINDS WILL BACK FROM A NW TO A W FLOW BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. FOR KJFK...THINK THE SEA BREEZE MAY LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE TERMINAL FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN WINDS VARYING FROM
W-NW TO W-SW INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 03-05Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL HANG JUST SOUTH OF KJFK...
POSSIBLY LIFTING NORTH FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH 23Z.

KLGA FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS 320-340 MAG...BACKING TO 250-270 MAG
BY 22Z.

KEWR FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OCNL GUSTS TO 17 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z.

KTEB FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AT KSWF IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WILL BE
4 FT OR LESS AND ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS 1 FT OR LESS AS A
RESULT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FROM THURSDAY THOUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE
AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO OFFER
SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 291733
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
133 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT WILL BE NEAR BY OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY AROUND
60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN...SO
HAVE KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/WILL
SHORTLY HIT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
MAINLY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON - WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVELS A LIMITING FACTOR.

THE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN A MID LEVEL INVERSION THE 4-7000 FT
RANGE...SO DID NOT GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 775 HPA PER BUFKIT AND 12Z
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM AND RAP 2-METER TEMPERATURES...6Z MAV GUIDANCE
AND 00Z MET GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE SHADED CLOSER TO
MET GUIDANCE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WED...BUT THE TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING
MOISTURE APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING
TO HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
CLOUD COVER ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABOVE
CONVECTIVE. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION
WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER
HIGH WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE
COAST...WHILE THE INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG IT AND/OR TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM
ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER
ON TIMING. AT THIS TIME DECIDED TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH
INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME WITH SOME DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING AND AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEA BREEZE IS CURRENTLY HOVERING ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS JUST
SOUTH OF THE COAST...AND WITH NW FLOW AT 10-12 KT...SEA BREEZE
HAS BEEN SLOW TO TRACK INLAND. WILL BACK WINDS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS TO THE SW AT 19-20Z...AND THEN TO THE S FROM 20-22Z. FOR
INLAND TERMINALS...WINDS WILL BACK TO A W-SW FLOW BY 22Z.

VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 03-05Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS TO 200-220 MAG
BY 21Z. TIMING COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KLGA FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS TO AROUND 200
MAG BY 21Z. TIMING COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KEWR FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OCNL GUSTS TO 17 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z.

KTEB FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS TO 250-270 MAG
BY 21Z. TIMING COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AT KSWF IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN










000
FXUS61 KOKX 291733
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
133 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT WILL BE NEAR BY OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY AROUND
60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN...SO
HAVE KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/WILL
SHORTLY HIT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
MAINLY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON - WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVELS A LIMITING FACTOR.

THE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN A MID LEVEL INVERSION THE 4-7000 FT
RANGE...SO DID NOT GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 775 HPA PER BUFKIT AND 12Z
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM AND RAP 2-METER TEMPERATURES...6Z MAV GUIDANCE
AND 00Z MET GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE SHADED CLOSER TO
MET GUIDANCE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WED...BUT THE TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING
MOISTURE APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING
TO HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
CLOUD COVER ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABOVE
CONVECTIVE. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION
WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER
HIGH WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE
COAST...WHILE THE INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG IT AND/OR TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM
ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER
ON TIMING. AT THIS TIME DECIDED TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH
INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME WITH SOME DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING AND AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEA BREEZE IS CURRENTLY HOVERING ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS JUST
SOUTH OF THE COAST...AND WITH NW FLOW AT 10-12 KT...SEA BREEZE
HAS BEEN SLOW TO TRACK INLAND. WILL BACK WINDS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS TO THE SW AT 19-20Z...AND THEN TO THE S FROM 20-22Z. FOR
INLAND TERMINALS...WINDS WILL BACK TO A W-SW FLOW BY 22Z.

VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 03-05Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS TO 200-220 MAG
BY 21Z. TIMING COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KLGA FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS TO AROUND 200
MAG BY 21Z. TIMING COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KEWR FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OCNL GUSTS TO 17 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z.

KTEB FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS TO 250-270 MAG
BY 21Z. TIMING COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AT KSWF IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN











000
FXUS61 KOKX 291655
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1255 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT WILL BE NEAR BY OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY AROUND
60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN...SO
HAVE KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/WILL
SHORTLY HIT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
MAINLY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON - WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVELS A LIMITING FACTOR.

THE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN A MID LEVEL INVERSION THE 4-7000 FT
RANGE...SO DID NOT GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 775 HPA PER BUFKIT AND 12Z
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM AND RAP 2-METER TEMPERATURES...6Z MAV GUIDANCE
AND 00Z MET GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE SHADED CLOSER TO
MET GUIDANCE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WED...BUT THE TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING
MOISTURE APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING
TO HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
CLOUD COVER ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABOVE
CONVECTIVE. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. AT THIS TIME DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

OTHERWISE...VFR. W-NW FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO THE W-SW
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
ARRIVE AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEA BREEZE TIMING
AND DIRECTION...WINDS COULD GO MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 291655
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1255 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT WILL BE NEAR BY OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY AROUND
60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN...SO
HAVE KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/WILL
SHORTLY HIT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
MAINLY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON - WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVELS A LIMITING FACTOR.

THE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN A MID LEVEL INVERSION THE 4-7000 FT
RANGE...SO DID NOT GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 775 HPA PER BUFKIT AND 12Z
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM AND RAP 2-METER TEMPERATURES...6Z MAV GUIDANCE
AND 00Z MET GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE SHADED CLOSER TO
MET GUIDANCE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WED...BUT THE TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING
MOISTURE APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING
TO HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
CLOUD COVER ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABOVE
CONVECTIVE. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. AT THIS TIME DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

OTHERWISE...VFR. W-NW FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO THE W-SW
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
ARRIVE AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEA BREEZE TIMING
AND DIRECTION...WINDS COULD GO MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 291448
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1048 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT WILL BE NEAR BY OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY
AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN...SO HAVE
KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. TEMPERATURES WILL HIT THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT MAINLY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE
AFTERNOON - WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS A LIMITING FACTOR.

THE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN A MID LEVEL INVERSION THE 4-7000 FT
RANGE...SO DID NOT GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TONIGHT CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABOVE CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. AT THIS TIME DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

OTHERWISE...VFR. W-NW FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO THE W-SW
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
ARRIVE AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEA BREEZE TIMING
AND DIRECTION...WINDS COULD GO MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

SEAS DOWN TO 4.6 FT AT 44017 AND WOULD EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY FALL...SO HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WHICH
EXPIRES AT 11 AM.

WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN






000
FXUS61 KOKX 291448
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1048 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT WILL BE NEAR BY OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY
AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN...SO HAVE
KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. TEMPERATURES WILL HIT THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT MAINLY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE
AFTERNOON - WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS A LIMITING FACTOR.

THE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN A MID LEVEL INVERSION THE 4-7000 FT
RANGE...SO DID NOT GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TONIGHT CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABOVE CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. AT THIS TIME DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

OTHERWISE...VFR. W-NW FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO THE W-SW
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
ARRIVE AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEA BREEZE TIMING
AND DIRECTION...WINDS COULD GO MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

SEAS DOWN TO 4.6 FT AT 44017 AND WOULD EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY FALL...SO HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WHICH
EXPIRES AT 11 AM.

WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN





000
FXUS61 KOKX 291132
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
732 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
COAST...AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...OTHERWISE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN. PW/S
ONLY AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FCST
GOING. TEMPS WILL HIT CONVECTIVE SO SCT TO OCNL BKN CU FOR THE
AFTN.

THE FAIR WX CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TNGT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE.

TEMPS TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TNGT CLOSER TO THE MET.

MDT RISK FOR RIPS TODAY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY ATTM. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABV CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. ATTM DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR
COASTAL TERMINALS.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
MAKE IT AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEA BREEZE TIMING
AND DIRECTION...WINDS COULD GO MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. WAVES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED BY 1/2 FT FROM WAVEWATCH ON THE OCEAN. RETAINED THE SCA
EXPIRATION TIMING OF 11 AM BASED ON THIS FCST DATA AS WELL AS
CURRENT TRENDS. WIND AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TNGT AND WED WITH
HIPRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 291132
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
732 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
COAST...AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...OTHERWISE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN. PW/S
ONLY AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FCST
GOING. TEMPS WILL HIT CONVECTIVE SO SCT TO OCNL BKN CU FOR THE
AFTN.

THE FAIR WX CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TNGT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE.

TEMPS TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TNGT CLOSER TO THE MET.

MDT RISK FOR RIPS TODAY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY ATTM. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABV CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. ATTM DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR
COASTAL TERMINALS.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
MAKE IT AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEA BREEZE TIMING
AND DIRECTION...WINDS COULD GO MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. WAVES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED BY 1/2 FT FROM WAVEWATCH ON THE OCEAN. RETAINED THE SCA
EXPIRATION TIMING OF 11 AM BASED ON THIS FCST DATA AS WELL AS
CURRENT TRENDS. WIND AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TNGT AND WED WITH
HIPRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN









000
FXUS61 KOKX 290751 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
351 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
COAST...AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...OTHERWISE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN. PW/S
ONLY AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FCST
GOING. TEMPS WILL HIT CONVECTIVE SO SCT TO OCNL BKN CU FOR THE
AFTN.

THE FAIR WX CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TNGT...BUT IT COULD BE A
SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT IS GOING ON ACROSS OH AND PA WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE.

TEMPS TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TNGT CLOSER TO THE MET.

MDT RISK FOR RIPS TODAY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY ATTM. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABV CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. ATTM DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR AT
LEAST KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
MAKE IT AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED AT KEWR BUT
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF FORECAST CHANGES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. WAVES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED BY 1/2 FT FROM WAVEWATCH ON THE OCEAN. RETAINED THE SCA
EXPIRATION TIMING OF 11 AM BASED ON THIS FCST DATA AS WELL AS
CURRENT TRENDS. WIND AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TNGT AND WED WITH
HIPRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN










000
FXUS61 KOKX 290751 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
351 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
COAST...AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...OTHERWISE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN. PW/S
ONLY AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FCST
GOING. TEMPS WILL HIT CONVECTIVE SO SCT TO OCNL BKN CU FOR THE
AFTN.

THE FAIR WX CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TNGT...BUT IT COULD BE A
SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT IS GOING ON ACROSS OH AND PA WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE.

TEMPS TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TNGT CLOSER TO THE MET.

MDT RISK FOR RIPS TODAY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY ATTM. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABV CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. ATTM DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR AT
LEAST KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
MAKE IT AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED AT KEWR BUT
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF FORECAST CHANGES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. WAVES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED BY 1/2 FT FROM WAVEWATCH ON THE OCEAN. RETAINED THE SCA
EXPIRATION TIMING OF 11 AM BASED ON THIS FCST DATA AS WELL AS
CURRENT TRENDS. WIND AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TNGT AND WED WITH
HIPRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN









000
FXUS61 KOKX 290746
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
346 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
COAST...AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...OTHERWISE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN. PW/S
ONLY AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FCST
GOING. TEMPS WILL HIT CONVECTIVE SO SCT TO OCNL BKN CU FOR THE
AFTN.

THE FAIR WX CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TNGT...BUT IT COULD BE A
SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT IS GOING ON ACROSS OH AND PA WITH WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE.

TEMPS TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TNGT CLOSER TO THE MET.

MDT RISK FOR RIPS TODAY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY ATTM. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABV CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. ATTM DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR AT
LEAST KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
MAKE IT AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED AT KEWR BUT
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF FORECAST CHANGES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. WAVES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED BY 1/2 FT FROM WAVEWATCH ON THE OCEAN. RETAINED THE SCA
EXPIRATION TIMING OF 11 AM BASED ON THIS FCST DATA AS WELL AS
CURRENT TRENDS. WIND AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TNGT AND WED WITH
HIPRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 290746
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
346 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
COAST...AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...OTHERWISE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN. PW/S
ONLY AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FCST
GOING. TEMPS WILL HIT CONVECTIVE SO SCT TO OCNL BKN CU FOR THE
AFTN.

THE FAIR WX CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TNGT...BUT IT COULD BE A
SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT IS GOING ON ACROSS OH AND PA WITH WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE.

TEMPS TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TNGT CLOSER TO THE MET.

MDT RISK FOR RIPS TODAY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY ATTM. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABV CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. ATTM DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR AT
LEAST KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
MAKE IT AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED AT KEWR BUT
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF FORECAST CHANGES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. WAVES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED BY 1/2 FT FROM WAVEWATCH ON THE OCEAN. RETAINED THE SCA
EXPIRATION TIMING OF 11 AM BASED ON THIS FCST DATA AS WELL AS
CURRENT TRENDS. WIND AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TNGT AND WED WITH
HIPRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN








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