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000
FXUS61 KOKX 301621
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1221 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY...THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY...THEN
TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATES ON LATEST T/TD TRENDS...AND CLOUDS. PASSAGE OF 700-500
HPA TROUGH AXIS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUDS. DOWNSLOPE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR.

LATEST HOURLY GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH FORECAST HIGHS. EXPECT HIGHS
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A 850-500 HPA SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER OF
MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS. NOT
QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH OF A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO
GO COLDER AT THIS TIME. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NNW FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE VA/NC COAST FRIDAY TOWARDS LONG ISLAND. THIS COUPLED WITH A
PASSING WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA OVER
MAINLY LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGIZES A SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS STRENGTHEN THIS STORM AS IT HEADS
NE...PASSING SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH FIRST BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST CHANCE POPS REMAIN ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT...ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THAT COASTAL AREAS WARRANT LIKELY POPS...BEING CLOSER TO THE
STORM CENTER. CHANCES OF RAINFALL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE STORM SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA...WITH DRY WEATHER
BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AN ALL RAIN EVENT. BY THE TIME FREEZING
LEVELS AND WET BULB ZEROES LOWER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED OR WILL JUST ABOUT TO
END. THIS WOULD BE THE CASE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CITY. WITH SUCH LIMITED COVERAGE OF A LOW
PROBABILITY EVENT...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE
GRIDS.

WINDS WILL END UP BEING THE BIGGER STORY...AND WILL BE AT THEIR
STRONGEST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME POINT DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AVERAGING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE GROWING SEASON THEN PROBABLY ENDS
FOR MORE OF THE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CITY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. TEMPS THEN BEGIN THEIR CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL ON MONDAY...BEFORE REACHING NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH A SW FLOW.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE METRO TODAY. LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP S
OF THE REGION FRI.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

MAINLY NW WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KT. SOME BACKING TO THE WNW THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY S COASTS. DIRECTION VEERS TO THE N OVERNIGHT.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY...POSSIBLY WAVERING BETWEEN 290 AND 310 MAGNETIC BETWEEN 18Z
AND 23Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY...POSSIBLY WAVERING BETWEEN 290 AND 310 MAGNETIC BETWEEN
18Z AND 23Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NGT...VFR.
.FRI...CIGS LOWER THRU THE DAY WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT NGT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND WILL RESULT IN WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS POSSIBLY OVER THE
FAR EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE NE
FLOW COULD STRENGTHEN TO UP TO 15 KT. AS A RESULT...SUB-SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT
NORTHERLY GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON
ALL WATERS - ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT ON...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON
MORNING...AND ON THE OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT MOST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER A HALF INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC/NV
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT









000
FXUS61 KOKX 301621
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1221 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY...THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY...THEN
TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATES ON LATEST T/TD TRENDS...AND CLOUDS. PASSAGE OF 700-500
HPA TROUGH AXIS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUDS. DOWNSLOPE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR.

LATEST HOURLY GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH FORECAST HIGHS. EXPECT HIGHS
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A 850-500 HPA SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER OF
MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS. NOT
QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH OF A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO
GO COLDER AT THIS TIME. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NNW FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE VA/NC COAST FRIDAY TOWARDS LONG ISLAND. THIS COUPLED WITH A
PASSING WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA OVER
MAINLY LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGIZES A SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS STRENGTHEN THIS STORM AS IT HEADS
NE...PASSING SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH FIRST BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST CHANCE POPS REMAIN ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT...ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THAT COASTAL AREAS WARRANT LIKELY POPS...BEING CLOSER TO THE
STORM CENTER. CHANCES OF RAINFALL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE STORM SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA...WITH DRY WEATHER
BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AN ALL RAIN EVENT. BY THE TIME FREEZING
LEVELS AND WET BULB ZEROES LOWER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED OR WILL JUST ABOUT TO
END. THIS WOULD BE THE CASE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CITY. WITH SUCH LIMITED COVERAGE OF A LOW
PROBABILITY EVENT...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE
GRIDS.

WINDS WILL END UP BEING THE BIGGER STORY...AND WILL BE AT THEIR
STRONGEST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME POINT DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AVERAGING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE GROWING SEASON THEN PROBABLY ENDS
FOR MORE OF THE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CITY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. TEMPS THEN BEGIN THEIR CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL ON MONDAY...BEFORE REACHING NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH A SW FLOW.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE METRO TODAY. LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP S
OF THE REGION FRI.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

MAINLY NW WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KT. SOME BACKING TO THE WNW THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY S COASTS. DIRECTION VEERS TO THE N OVERNIGHT.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY...POSSIBLY WAVERING BETWEEN 290 AND 310 MAGNETIC BETWEEN 18Z
AND 23Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY...POSSIBLY WAVERING BETWEEN 290 AND 310 MAGNETIC BETWEEN
18Z AND 23Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NGT...VFR.
.FRI...CIGS LOWER THRU THE DAY WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT NGT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND WILL RESULT IN WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS POSSIBLY OVER THE
FAR EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE NE
FLOW COULD STRENGTHEN TO UP TO 15 KT. AS A RESULT...SUB-SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT
NORTHERLY GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON
ALL WATERS - ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT ON...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON
MORNING...AND ON THE OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT MOST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER A HALF INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC/NV
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT









000
FXUS61 KOKX 301337
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
937 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY...THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY...THEN
TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATES ON LATEST T/TD RENDS...AND CLOUDS. EARLY MORNING FOG HAS
BURNED OFF. PASSAGE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH AXIS WILL ONLY PRODUCE
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT. DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SERVES AS A LIMITING FACTOR.

LATEST HOURLY GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH FORECAST HIGHS. EXPECT HIGHS
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A 850-500 HPA SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER OF
MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS. NOT
QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH OF A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO
GO COLDER AT THIS TIME. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NNW FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE VA/NC COAST FRIDAY TOWARDS LONG ISLAND. THIS COUPLED WITH A
PASSING WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA OVER
MAINLY LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGIZES A SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS STRENGTHEN THIS STORM AS IT HEADS
NE...PASSING SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH FIRST BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST CHANCE POPS REMAIN ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT...ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THAT COASTAL AREAS WARRANT LIKELY POPS...BEING CLOSER TO THE
STORM CENTER. CHANCES OF RAINFALL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE STORM SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA...WITH DRY WEATHER
BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AN ALL RAIN EVENT. BY THE TIME FREEZING
LEVELS AND WET BULB ZEROES LOWER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED OR WILL JUST ABOUT TO
END. THIS WOULD BE THE CASE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CITY. WITH SUCH LIMITED COVERAGE OF A LOW
PROBABILITY EVENT...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE
GRIDS.

WINDS WILL END UP BEING THE BIGGER STORY...AND WILL BE AT THEIR
STRONGEST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME POINT DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AVERAGING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE GROWING SEASON THEN PROBABLY ENDS
FOR MORE OF THE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CITY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. TEMPS THEN BEGIN THEIR CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL ON MONDAY...BEFORE REACHING NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH A SW FLOW.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE METRO TODAY. LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP S
OF THE REGION FRI.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

MAINLY NW WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KT. SOME BACKING TO THE WNW THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY S COASTS. DIRECTION VEERS TO THE N OVERNIGHT.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY...POSSIBLY WAVERING BETWEEN 290 AND 310 MAGNETIC BETWEEN 18Z
AND 23Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY...POSSIBLY WAVERING BETWEEN 290 AND 310 MAGNETIC BETWEEN
18Z AND 23Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NGT...VFR.
.FRI...CIGS LOWER THRU THE DAY WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT NGT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND WILL RESULT IN WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS POSSIBLY OVER THE
FAR EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE NE
FLOW COULD STRENGTHEN TO UP TO 15 KT. AS A RESULT...SUB-SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT
NORTHERLY GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON
ALL WATERS - ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT ON...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON
MORNING...AND ON THE OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT MOST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER A HALF INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC/NV
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT











000
FXUS61 KOKX 301145
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
745 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. ..THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY...THEN
TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. EXCEPTION IS THE TEMPERATURE AT
FOK...WHICH HAS FALLEN QUITE A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
THE W/N OF NYC METRO...IS APPEARING TO HAVE STARTED TO DISSIPATE
AND AS OF NOW...LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TO BECOME AT MOST ISOLATED IN
NATURE BY 11Z...SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN ON RE-ISSUING SPS FOR
LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT 11Z.

OTHERWISE...PASSAGE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH AXIS TODAY WILL ONLY
PRODUCE SOME SCT CLOUDS AS AROUND 10KT OR DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW SERVES AS A LIMITING FACTOR.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A 850-500 HPA SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER OF
MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS. NOT
QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH OF A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO
GO COLDER AT THIS TIME. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NNW FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE VA/NC COAST FRIDAY TOWARDS LONG ISLAND. THIS COUPLED WITH A
PASSING WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA OVER
MAINLY LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGIZES A SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS STRENGTHEN THIS STORM AS IT HEADS
NE...PASSING SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH FIRST BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST CHANCE POPS REMAIN ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT...ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THAT COASTAL AREAS WARRANT LIKELY POPS...BEING CLOSER TO THE
STORM CENTER. CHANCES OF RAINFALL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE STORM SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA...WITH DRY WEATHER
BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AN ALL RAIN EVENT. BY THE TIME FREEZING
LEVELS AND WET BULB ZEROES LOWER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED OR WILL JUST ABOUT TO
END. THIS WOULD BE THE CASE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CITY. WITH SUCH LIMITED COVERAGE OF A LOW
PROBABILITY EVENT...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE
GRIDS.

WINDS WILL END UP BEING THE BIGGER STORY...AND WILL BE AT THEIR
STRONGEST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME POINT DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AVERAGING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE GROWING SEASON THEN PROBABLY ENDS
FOR MORE OF THE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CITY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. TEMPS THEN BEGIN THEIR CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL ON MONDAY...BEFORE REACHING NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH A SW FLOW.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE METRO TODAY. LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP S
OF THE REGION FRI.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR DISSIPATING FG THIS MRNG.

MAINLY NW WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KT. SOME BACKING TO THE WNW THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY S COASTS. DIRECTION VEERS TO THE N OVERNIGHT.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED THRU 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED THRU 14Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED THRU 14Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED THRU 14Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NGT...VFR.
.FRI...CIGS LOWER THRU THE DAY WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT NGT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
WILL RESULT IN WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE NE FLOW COULD STRENGTHEN TO UP
TO 15 KT. AS A RESULT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT
NORTHERLY GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON
ALL WATERS - ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT ON...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON
MORNING...AND ON THE OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT MOST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER A HALF INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT








000
FXUS61 KOKX 301035 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
634 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. ..THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY...THEN
TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. EXCEPTION IS THE TEMPERATURE AT
FOK...WHICH HAS FALLEN QUITE A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
THE W/N OF NYC METRO...IS APPEARING TO HAVE STARTED TO DISSIPATE
AND AS OF NOW...LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TO BECOME AT MOST ISOLATED IN
NATURE BY 11Z...SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN ON RE-ISSUING SPS FOR
LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT 11Z.

OTHERWISE...PASSAGE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH AXIS TODAY WILL ONLY
PRODUCE SOME SCT CLOUDS AS AROUND 10KT OR DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW SERVES AS A LIMITING FACTOR.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A 850-500 HPA SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER OF
MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS. NOT
QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH OF A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO
GO COLDER AT THIS TIME. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NNW FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE VA/NC COAST FRIDAY TOWARDS LONG ISLAND. THIS COUPLED WITH A
PASSING WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA OVER
MAINLY LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGIZES A SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS STRENGTHEN THIS STORM AS IT HEADS
NE...PASSING SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH FIRST BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST CHANCE POPS REMAIN ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT...ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THAT COASTAL AREAS WARRANT LIKELY POPS...BEING CLOSER TO THE
STORM CENTER. CHANCES OF RAINFALL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE STORM SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA...WITH DRY WEATHER
BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AN ALL RAIN EVENT. BY THE TIME FREEZING
LEVELS AND WET BULB ZEROES LOWER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED OR WILL JUST ABOUT TO
END. THIS WOULD BE THE CASE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CITY. WITH SUCH LIMITED COVERAGE OF A LOW
PROBABILITY EVENT...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE
GRIDS.

WINDS WILL END UP BEING THE BIGGER STORY...AND WILL BE AT THEIR
STRONGEST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME POINT DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AVERAGING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE GROWING SEASON THEN PROBABLY ENDS
FOR MORE OF THE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CITY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. TEMPS THEN BEGIN THEIR CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL ON MONDAY...BEFORE REACHING NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH A SW FLOW.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE METRO TODAY. LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP S
OF THE REGION FRI.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FG WHICH COULD BRING THINGS
TO LIFR AT KSWF AND PERHAPS AT KHPN/KTEB. GREATEST LIKELIHOOD AT
KSWF WHERE A TEMPO WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

MAINLY NW WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KT. SOME BACKING TO THE WNW THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY S COASTS. DIRECTION VEERS TO THE N OVERNIGHT.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED THRU 12Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED THRU 12Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR BR POSSIBLE TIL AROUND 12Z. PROB TOO
LOW HOWEVER TO INCLUDE A TEMPO IN THE TAFS ATTM.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR FG POSSIBLE TIL AROUND 12Z. PROB TOO
LOW HOWEVER TO INCLUDE A TEMPO IN THE TAFS ATTM.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NGT...VFR.
.FRI...CIGS LOWER THRU THE DAY WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT NGT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
WILL RESULT IN WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE NE FLOW COULD STRENGTHEN TO UP
TO 15 KT. AS A RESULT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT
NORTHERLY GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON
ALL WATERS - ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT ON...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON
MORNING...AND ON THE OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT MOST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER A HALF INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MALOIT/JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 301035 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
634 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. ..THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY...THEN
TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. EXCEPTION IS THE TEMPERATURE AT
FOK...WHICH HAS FALLEN QUITE A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
THE W/N OF NYC METRO...IS APPEARING TO HAVE STARTED TO DISSIPATE
AND AS OF NOW...LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TO BECOME AT MOST ISOLATED IN
NATURE BY 11Z...SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN ON RE-ISSUING SPS FOR
LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT 11Z.

OTHERWISE...PASSAGE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH AXIS TODAY WILL ONLY
PRODUCE SOME SCT CLOUDS AS AROUND 10KT OR DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW SERVES AS A LIMITING FACTOR.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A 850-500 HPA SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER OF
MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS. NOT
QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH OF A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO
GO COLDER AT THIS TIME. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NNW FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE VA/NC COAST FRIDAY TOWARDS LONG ISLAND. THIS COUPLED WITH A
PASSING WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA OVER
MAINLY LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGIZES A SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS STRENGTHEN THIS STORM AS IT HEADS
NE...PASSING SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH FIRST BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST CHANCE POPS REMAIN ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT...ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THAT COASTAL AREAS WARRANT LIKELY POPS...BEING CLOSER TO THE
STORM CENTER. CHANCES OF RAINFALL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE STORM SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA...WITH DRY WEATHER
BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AN ALL RAIN EVENT. BY THE TIME FREEZING
LEVELS AND WET BULB ZEROES LOWER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED OR WILL JUST ABOUT TO
END. THIS WOULD BE THE CASE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CITY. WITH SUCH LIMITED COVERAGE OF A LOW
PROBABILITY EVENT...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE
GRIDS.

WINDS WILL END UP BEING THE BIGGER STORY...AND WILL BE AT THEIR
STRONGEST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME POINT DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AVERAGING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE GROWING SEASON THEN PROBABLY ENDS
FOR MORE OF THE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CITY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. TEMPS THEN BEGIN THEIR CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL ON MONDAY...BEFORE REACHING NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH A SW FLOW.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE METRO TODAY. LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP S
OF THE REGION FRI.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FG WHICH COULD BRING THINGS
TO LIFR AT KSWF AND PERHAPS AT KHPN/KTEB. GREATEST LIKELIHOOD AT
KSWF WHERE A TEMPO WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

MAINLY NW WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KT. SOME BACKING TO THE WNW THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY S COASTS. DIRECTION VEERS TO THE N OVERNIGHT.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED THRU 12Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED THRU 12Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR BR POSSIBLE TIL AROUND 12Z. PROB TOO
LOW HOWEVER TO INCLUDE A TEMPO IN THE TAFS ATTM.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR FG POSSIBLE TIL AROUND 12Z. PROB TOO
LOW HOWEVER TO INCLUDE A TEMPO IN THE TAFS ATTM.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NGT...VFR.
.FRI...CIGS LOWER THRU THE DAY WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT NGT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
WILL RESULT IN WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE NE FLOW COULD STRENGTHEN TO UP
TO 15 KT. AS A RESULT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT
NORTHERLY GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON
ALL WATERS - ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT ON...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON
MORNING...AND ON THE OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT MOST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER A HALF INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MALOIT/JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 300842
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
442 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. ..THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY...THEN
TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE HAS DEVELOPED MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO THE W/N OF NYC METRO. HAVE ADDRESSED WITH AN SPS. DO
THINK IT WILL DISSIPATE AS LOWER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN...BY 11Z. HAVE SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES WITH 7Z
OBSERVATIONS IN SUPPORT OF THIS LINE OF THINKING...SO WILL EXTEND
SPS UNTIL 11Z.

OTHERWISE...PASSAGE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH AXIS TODAY WILL ONLY
PRODUCE SOME SCT CLOUDS AS AROUND 10KT OR DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW SERVES AS A LIMITING FACTOR.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A 850-500 HPA SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER OF
MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS. NOT
QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH OF A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO
GO COLDER AT THIS TIME. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NNW FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE VA/NC COAST FRIDAY TOWARDS LONG ISLAND. THIS COUPLED WITH A
PASSING WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA OVER
MAINLY LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGIZES A SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS STRENGTHEN THIS STORM AS IT HEADS
NE...PASSING SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH FIRST BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST CHANCE POPS REMAIN ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT...ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THAT COASTAL AREAS WARRANT LIKELY POPS...BEING CLOSER TO THE
STORM CENTER. CHANCES OF RAINFALL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE STORM SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA...WITH DRY WEATHER
BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AN ALL RAIN EVENT. BY THE TIME FREEZING
LEVELS AND WET BULB ZEROES LOWER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED OR WILL JUST ABOUT TO
END. THIS WOULD BE THE CASE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CITY. WITH SUCH LIMITED COVERAGE OF A LOW
PROBABILITY EVENT...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE
GRIDS.

WINDS WILL END UP BEING THE BIGGER STORY...AND WILL BE AT THEIR
STRONGEST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME POINT DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AVERAGING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE GROWING SEASON THEN PROBABLY ENDS
FOR MORE OF THE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CITY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. TEMPS THEN BEGIN THEIR CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL ON MONDAY...BEFORE REACHING NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH A SW FLOW.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE METRO TODAY. LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP S
OF THE REGION FRI.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FG WHICH COULD BRING THINGS
TO LIFR AT KSWF AND PERHAPS AT KHPN/KTEB. GREATEST LIKELIHOOD AT
KSWF WHERE A TEMPO WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

MAINLY NW WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KT. SOME BACKING TO THE WNW THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY S COASTS. DIRECTION VEERS TO THE N OVERNIGHT.


...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED THRU 12Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED THRU 12Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR BR POSSIBLE TIL AROUND 12Z. PROB TOO
LOW HOWEVER TO INCLUDE A TEMPO IN THE TAFS ATTM.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR FG POSSIBLE TIL AROUND 12Z. PROB TOO
LOW HOWEVER TO INCLUDE A TEMPO IN THE TAFS ATTM.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NGT...VFR.
.FRI...CIGS LOWER THRU THE DAY WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT NGT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
WILL RESULT IN WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE NE FLOW COULD STRENGTHEN TO UP
TO 15 KT. AS A RESULT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT
NORTHERLY GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON
ALL WATERS - ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT ON...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON
MORNING...AND ON THE OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT MOST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER A HALF INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT








000
FXUS61 KOKX 300808 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
407 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. ..THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY...THEN
TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE HAS DEVELOPED MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO THE W/N OF NYC METRO. HAVE ADDRESSED WITH AN SPS. DO
THINK IT WILL DISSIPATE AS LOWER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN...BY 11Z. HAVE SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES WITH 7Z
OBSERVATIONS IN SUPPORT OF THIS LINE OF THINKING...SO WILL EXTEND
SPS UNTIL 11Z.

OTHERWISE...PASSAGE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH AXIS TODAY WILL ONLY
PRODUCE SOME SCT CLOUDS AS AROUND 10KT OR DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW SERVES AS A LIMITING FACTOR.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A 850-500 HPA SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER OF
MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS. NOT
QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH OF A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO
GO COLDER AT THIS TIME. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NNW FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE VA/NC COAST FRIDAY TOWARDS LONG ISLAND. THIS COUPLED WITH A
PASSING WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA OVER
MAINLY LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGIZES A SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS STRENGTHEN THIS STORM AS IT HEADS
NE...PASSING SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH FIRST BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST CHANCE POPS REMAIN ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT...ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THAT COASTAL AREAS WARRANT LIKELY POPS...BEING CLOSER TO THE
STORM CENTER. CHANCES OF RAINFALL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE STORM SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA...WITH DRY WEATHER
BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AN ALL RAIN EVENT. BY THE TIME FREEZING
LEVELS AND WET BULB ZEROES LOWER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED OR WILL JUST ABOUT TO
END. THIS WOULD BE THE CASE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CITY. WITH SUCH LIMITED COVERAGE OF A LOW
PROBABILITY EVENT...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE
GRIDS.

WINDS WILL END UP BEING THE BIGGER STORY...AND WILL BE AT THEIR
STRONGEST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME POINT DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AVERAGING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE GROWING SEASON THEN PROBABLY ENDS
FOR MORE OF THE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CITY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. TEMPS THEN BEGIN THEIR CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL ON MONDAY...BEFORE REACHING NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH A SW FLOW.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE METRO TODAY. LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP S
OF THE REGION FRI.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FG WHICH COULD BRING THINGS
TO LIFR AT KSWF AND PERHAPS AT KHPN/KTEB. GREATEST LIKELIHOOD AT
KSWF WHERE A TEMPO WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

MAINLY NW WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KT. SOME BACKING TO THE WNW THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY S COASTS. DIRECTION VEERS TO THE N OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NGT...VFR.
.FRI...CIGS LOWER THRU THE DAY WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT NGT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
WILL RESULT IN WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE NE FLOW COULD STRENGTHEN TO UP
TO 15 KT. AS A RESULT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT
NORTHERLY GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON
ALL WATERS - ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT ON...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON
MORNING...AND ON THE OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT MOST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER A HALF INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JC






000
FXUS61 KOKX 300757
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. ..THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY...THEN
TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE HAS DEVELOPED MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO THE W/N OF NYC METRO. HAVE ADDRESSED WITH AN SPS. DO
THINK IT WILL DISSIPATE AS LOWER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN...BY 11Z. HAVE SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES WITH 7Z
OBSERVATIONS IN SUPPORT OF THIS LINE OF THINKING...SO WILL EXTEND
SPS UNTIL 11Z.

OTHERWISE...PASSAGE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH AXIS TODAY WILL ONLY
PRODUCE SOME SCT CLOUDS AS AROUND 10KT OR DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW SERVES AS A LIMITING FACTOR.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A 850-500 HAP SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER OF
MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS. NOT
QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH OF A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO
GO COLDER AT THIS TIME. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NNW FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE VA/NC COAST FRIDAY TOWARDS LONG ISLAND. THIS COUPLED WITH A
PASSING WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA OVER
MAINLY LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGIZES A SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLE MEANS STRENGTHEN THIS STORM AS IT HEADS NE...PASSING SE OF
THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
SURFACE TROUGH FIRST BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. AT LEAST CHANCE POPS REMAIN ON SATURDAY WITH SOME MID LEVEL
LIFT...ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT COASTAL AREAS WARRANT
LIKELY POPS...BEING CLOSER TO THE STORM CENTER. CHANCES OF RAINFALL
THEN DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SHIFTS FARTHER OUT
TO SEA...WITH DRY WEATHER BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AN ALL RAIN EVENT. BY THE TIME FREEZING
LEVELS AND WET BULB ZEROES LOWER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED OR WILL JUST ABOUT TO END. THIS WOULD BE
THE CASE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY.
WITH SUCH LIMITED COVERAGE OF A LOW PROBABILITY EVENT...HAVE REMOVED
THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE GRIDS.

WINDS WILL END UP BEING THE BIGGER STORY...AND WILL BE AT THEIR
STRONGEST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME POINT DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE DRY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AVERAGING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE MORNING. THE GROWING SEASON THEN PROBABLY ENDS FOR MORE OF
THE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CITY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK. TEMPS THEN BEGIN THEIR CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL ON
MONDAY...BEFORE REACHING NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH A SW FLOW.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE METRO TODAY. LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP S
OF THE REGION FRI.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FG WHICH COULD BRING THINGS
TO LIFR AT KSWF AND PERHAPS AT KHPN/KTEB. GREATEST LIKELIHOOD AT
KSWF WHERE A TEMPO WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

MAINLY NW WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KT. SOME BACKING TO THE WNW THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY S COASTS. DIRECTION VEERS TO THE N OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NGT...VFR.
.FRI...CIGS LOWER THRU THE DAY WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT NGT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
WILL RESULT IN WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE NE FLOW COULD STRENGTHEN TO UP
TO 15 KT. AS A RESULT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT NORTHERLY
GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON ALL WATERS
- ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
ON...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON
MORNING...AND ON THE OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT MOST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER A HALF INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JC








000
FXUS61 KOKX 300530
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
130 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST LOW WILL PASS
TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE THE
SECOND INTENSIFIES AND ALSO PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
WEST LATER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE HAS DEVELOPED MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO THE W/N OF NYC METRO. HAVE ADDRESSED WITH AN SPS. DO
THINK IT WILL DISSIPATE AS LOWER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN...SO ONLY HAVE SPS OUT THROUGH 4 AM. WILL REASSESS WITH NEXT
ISSUANCE.

OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
EAST OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAV/MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WAS ACCEPTED.
EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE...NOW OVER NUNAVUT IN NORTHERN CANADA...WILL DIVE SE TO THE
GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY AND CARVE OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AND
SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW. THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE SE TO THE
CAROLINAS ON SAT...THEN PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE ALSO
NEGATIVELY TILTING THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH.

THE APPROACH OF THIS COMBINATION OF UPPER SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. AS THIS
LOW APPROACHES...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN EASTERLY AND BEGIN TO
MOISTEN ON FRI...AND A WEAK LEADING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
INTERACTING WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NW FROM THE
INCIPIENT OFFSHORE LOW TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER LONG ISLAND BY LATE DAY FRI OR EARLY FRI
EVENING...THEN INCREASING POP TO CHANCE AND THEN LIKELY MOST
PLACES DURING THE DAY ON SAT AND CAT ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND AS THE
OFFSHORE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS.

THEN AS THE POTENT CLOSED LOW ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...A STRONGER LOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST LATE DAY SAT INTO SAT EVENING...AND THEN HEAD NE...PASSING
OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
CLOSED LOW SHOULD REMAIN A SEPARATE ENTITY FROM THE LARGER
TROUGH...AND THIS LACK OF PHASING SHOULD PRECLUDE THE AREA FROM
SEEING HEAVY PRECIP...SO ACTUALLY HAVE DECREASING POP DURING SAT
NIGHT. ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD STILL POUR IN BEHIND THE LOW TO
POSSIBLY CAUSE ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SHOT OF COLD AND WIND FROM SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE BLEND... WITH LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE...THEN
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY AS WINDS GUST CLOSE TO 40
MPH...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL
TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NYC SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE ALOFT...EXPECT GRADUAL MODERATION...WITH TEMPS STILL BELOW
NORMAL MON-TUE...THEN REACHING NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON WED AS A WARM
FRONT PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING ISOLD SHOWERS ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE METRO TODAY. LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP S
OF THE REGION FRI.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FG WHICH COULD BRING THINGS
TO LIFR AT KSWF AND PERHAPS AT KHPN/KTEB. GREATEST LIKELIHOOD AT
KSWF WHERE A TEMPO WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

MAINLY NW WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KT. SOME BACKING TO THE WNW THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY S COASTS. DIRECTION VEERS TO THE N OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NGT...VFR.
.FRI...CIGS LOWER THRU THE DAY WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT NGT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM LATE FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT NORTHERLY
GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON ALL WATERS
ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON...WITH
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON MORNING...AND ON THE
OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
IF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT...
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT COULD SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT QPF
AMOUNTS - CLOSER TO 1/2 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET/BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MET
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MET/BC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...MET/BC/GOODMAN











000
FXUS61 KOKX 300307
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1107 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVED EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS
OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST LOW
WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE SECOND INTENSIFIES AND ALSO PASSES TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST LATER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT EAST OF THE REGION...AS DOES THE AREA OF SHOWERS. UPDATED TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS.

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN
LONG ISLAND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST. THE UPPER
TROUGH WAS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST AND HAVE ENDED THE
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT. POPS REMAIN AT LOW CHANCE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN...IN A COUPLE OF HOURS TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN
AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES. DEW POINTS ALSO HAVE FALLEN. WITH THE ONSET
OF THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT WERE OBSERVED AND
THEN ALSO QUICKLY DIMINISHED AS A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVED
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAV/MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WAS ACCEPTED.
EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT NRN STREAM
VORT...NOW OVER NUNAVUT IN NORTHERN CANADA...WILL DIVE SE TO THE
GREAT LAKES BY FRI AND CARVE OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AND
SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW. THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE SE TO THE
CAROLINAS ON SAT...THEN PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE ALSO
NEGATIVELY TILTING THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH.

THE APPROACH OF THIS COMBO OF UPPER SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. AS THIS
LOW APPROACHES...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN EASTERLY AND BEGIN TO
MOISTEN ON FRI...AND A WEAK LEADING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
INTERACTING WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NW FROM THE
INCIPIENT OFFSHORE LOW TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER LONG ISLAND BY LATE DAY FRI OR EARLY FRI
EVENING...THEN INCREASING POP TO CHANCE AND THEN LIKELY MOST
PLACES DURING THE DAY ON SAT AND CAT ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND AS THE
OFFSHORE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS.

THEN AS THE POTENT CLOSED LOW ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...A STRONGER LOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST LATE DAY SAT INTO SAT EVENING...AND THEN HEAD NE...PASSING
OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
CLOSED LOW SHOULD REMAIN A SEPARATE ENTITY FROM THE LARGER
TROUGH...AND THIS LACK OF PHASING SHOULD PRECLUDE THE AREA FROM
SEEING HEAVY PRECIP...SO ACTUALLY HAVE DECREASING POP DURING SAT
NIGHT. ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD STILL POUR IN BEHIND THE LOW TO
POSSIBLY CAUSE ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SHOT OF COLD AND WIND FROM SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE BLEND... WITH LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE...THEN
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY AS WINDS GUST CLOSE TO 40
MPH...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL
TO AOB FREEZING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NYC SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE ALOFT...EXPECT GRADUAL MODERATION...WITH TEMPS STILL BELOW
NORMAL MON-TUE...THEN REACHING NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON WED AS A WARM
FRONT PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING ISOLD SHOWERS ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BUILDING EAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A W-NW FLOW AT 5 TO 10 KT. WIND
DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO BE MAINLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC...WITH A
PERIOD THU AFTERNOON WHERE THE FLOW MAY BACK 20 TO 30 DEGREES.

VFR WITH A SCT-BKN CU 4-5 KFT ON THU.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY. PRECIP MAINLY
RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT. NE-N
WINDS 15-20G25-30KT.
.SUNDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT EAST OF
THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM LATE FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT NORTHERLY
GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON ALL WATERS
ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CONDS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON...WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON MORNING...AND ON THE
OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED FROM FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
IF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT...
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT COULD SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMTS CLOSER TO 1/2 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN/MET








000
FXUS61 KOKX 300136
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
936 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVED EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS
OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST LOW
WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE SECOND INTENSIFIES AND ALSO PASSES TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST LATER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT EAST OF THE REGION...AS DOES THE AREA OF SHOWERS. UPDATED TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS.

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN
LONG ISLAND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST. THE UPPER
TROUGH WAS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST AND HAVE ENDED THE
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT. POPS REMAIN AT LOW CHANCE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN...IN A COUPLE OF HOURS TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN
AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES. DEW POINTS ALSO HAVE FALLEN. WITH THE ONSET
OF THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT WERE OBSERVED AND
THEN ALSO QUICKLY DIMINISHED AS A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVED
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAV/MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WAS ACCEPTED.
EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT NRN STREAM
VORT...NOW OVER NUNAVUT IN NORTHERN CANADA...WILL DIVE SE TO THE
GREAT LAKES BY FRI AND CARVE OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AND
SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW. THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE SE TO THE
CAROLINAS ON SAT...THEN PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE ALSO
NEGATIVELY TILTING THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH.

THE APPROACH OF THIS COMBO OF UPPER SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. AS THIS
LOW APPROACHES...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN EASTERLY AND BEGIN TO
MOISTEN ON FRI...AND A WEAK LEADING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
INTERACTING WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NW FROM THE
INCIPIENT OFFSHORE LOW TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER LONG ISLAND BY LATE DAY FRI OR EARLY FRI
EVENING...THEN INCREASING POP TO CHANCE AND THEN LIKELY MOST
PLACES DURING THE DAY ON SAT AND CAT ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND AS THE
OFFSHORE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS.

THEN AS THE POTENT CLOSED LOW ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...A STRONGER LOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST LATE DAY SAT INTO SAT EVENING...AND THEN HEAD NE...PASSING
OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
CLOSED LOW SHOULD REMAIN A SEPARATE ENTITY FROM THE LARGER
TROUGH...AND THIS LACK OF PHASING SHOULD PRECLUDE THE AREA FROM
SEEING HEAVY PRECIP...SO ACTUALLY HAVE DECREASING POP DURING SAT
NIGHT. ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD STILL POUR IN BEHIND THE LOW TO
POSSIBLY CAUSE ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SHOT OF COLD AND WIND FROM SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE BLEND... WITH LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE...THEN
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY AS WINDS GUST CLOSE TO 40
MPH...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL
TO AOB FREEZING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NYC SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE ALOFT...EXPECT GRADUAL MODERATION...WITH TEMPS STILL BELOW
NORMAL MON-TUE...THEN REACHING NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON WED AS A WARM
FRONT PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING ISOLD SHOWERS ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND SPOTTY RAIN. WINDS MAY ACTUALLY BACK A BIT
THIS EVENING TO 270-290 AT 5-10KT AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
BEFORE GOING BACK TO 320-330 BY 06Z.

BRIEF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KISP AND KGON EARLY THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY. PRECIP MAINLY
RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT. NE-N
WINDS 15-20G25-30KT.
.SUNDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT EAST OF
THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM LATE FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT NORTHERLY
GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON ALL WATERS
ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CONDS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON...WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON MORNING...AND ON THE
OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED FROM FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
IF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT...
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT COULD SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMTS CLOSER TO 1/2 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN/MET







000
FXUS61 KOKX 300002
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
802 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVED EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS
OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST LOW
WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE SECOND INTENSIFIES AND ALSO PASSES TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST LATER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN AS THE UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION. THE
UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST AND HAVE
ENDED THE PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT. POPS REMAIN AT LOW CHANCE AND
SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...IN A COUPLE OF HOURS TEMPERATURES WERE
DOWN AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES. DEW POINTS ALSO HAVE FALLEN. WITH THE
ONSET OF THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT WERE
OBSERVED AND THEN ALSO QUICKLY DIMINISHED AS A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT MOVED INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAV/MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WAS ACCEPTED.
EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT NRN STREAM
VORT...NOW OVER NUNAVUT IN NORTHERN CANADA...WILL DIVE SE TO THE
GREAT LAKES BY FRI AND CARVE OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AND
SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW. THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE SE TO THE
CAROLINAS ON SAT...THEN PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE ALSO
NEGATIVELY TILTING THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH.

THE APPROACH OF THIS COMBO OF UPPER SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. AS THIS
LOW APPROACHES...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN EASTERLY AND BEGIN TO
MOISTEN ON FRI...AND A WEAK LEADING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
INTERACTING WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NW FROM THE
INCIPIENT OFFSHORE LOW TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER LONG ISLAND BY LATE DAY FRI OR EARLY FRI
EVENING...THEN INCREASING POP TO CHANCE AND THEN LIKELY MOST
PLACES DURING THE DAY ON SAT AND CAT ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND AS THE
OFFSHORE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS.

THEN AS THE POTENT CLOSED LOW ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...A STRONGER LOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST LATE DAY SAT INTO SAT EVENING...AND THEN HEAD NE...PASSING
OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
CLOSED LOW SHOULD REMAIN A SEPARATE ENTITY FROM THE LARGER
TROUGH...AND THIS LACK OF PHASING SHOULD PRECLUDE THE AREA FROM
SEEING HEAVY PRECIP...SO ACTUALLY HAVE DECREASING POP DURING SAT
NIGHT. ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD STILL POUR IN BEHIND THE LOW TO
POSSIBLY CAUSE ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SHOT OF COLD AND WIND FROM SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE BLEND... WITH LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE...THEN
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY AS WINDS GUST CLOSE TO 40
MPH...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL
TO AOB FREEZING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NYC SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE ALOFT...EXPECT GRADUAL MODERATION...WITH TEMPS STILL BELOW
NORMAL MON-TUE...THEN REACHING NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON WED AS A WARM
FRONT PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING ISOLD SHOWERS ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTY NW WINDS AND SPOTTY RAIN. WINDS MAY ACTUALLY BACK A BIT THIS
EVENING TO 270-290 AT 5-10KT AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BEFORE
GOING BACK TO 320-330 BY 06Z.

BRIEF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KISP AND KGON EARLY THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY. PRECIP MAINLY
RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT. NE-N
WINDS 15-20G25-30KT.
.SUNDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE REMAINED BELOW 5 FT AS A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING. JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WIND
GUSTS BRIEFLY REACHED ABOUT 25 KT...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHNID THE COLD FRONT AND WIND AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. THEREFORE THE ADVISORY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE AREA WATERS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY INTO
THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM LATE FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT NORTHERLY
GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON ALL WATERS
ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CONDS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON...WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON MORNING...AND ON THE
OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.

LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED FROM FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
IF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT...
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT COULD SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMTS CLOSER TO 1/2 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN/MET









000
FXUS61 KOKX 292221
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
621 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVED EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS
OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST LOW
WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE SECOND INTENSIFIES AND ALSO PASSES TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST LATER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AT 22Z WITH THE LIGHT RAIN
SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS UPPER JET WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MOST SUPPORT TO THE NORTH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT COLDER AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST AS SKIES CLEAR.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAV/MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WAS ACCEPTED.
EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT NRN STREAM
VORT...NOW OVER NUNAVUT IN NORTHERN CANADA...WILL DIVE SE TO THE
GREAT LAKES BY FRI AND CARVE OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AND
SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW. THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE SE TO THE
CAROLINAS ON SAT...THEN PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE ALSO
NEGATIVELY TILTING THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH.

THE APPROACH OF THIS COMBO OF UPPER SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. AS THIS
LOW APPROACHES...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN EASTERLY AND BEGIN TO
MOISTEN ON FRI...AND A WEAK LEADING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
INTERACTING WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NW FROM THE
INCIPIENT OFFSHORE LOW TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER LONG ISLAND BY LATE DAY FRI OR EARLY FRI
EVENING...THEN INCREASING POP TO CHANCE AND THEN LIKELY MOST
PLACES DURING THE DAY ON SAT AND CAT ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND AS THE
OFFSHORE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS.

THEN AS THE POTENT CLOSED LOW ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...A STRONGER LOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST LATE DAY SAT INTO SAT EVENING...AND THEN HEAD NE...PASSING
OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
CLOSED LOW SHOULD REMAIN A SEPARATE ENTITY FROM THE LARGER
TROUGH...AND THIS LACK OF PHASING SHOULD PRECLUDE THE AREA FROM
SEEING HEAVY PRECIP...SO ACTUALLY HAVE DECREASING POP DURING SAT
NIGHT. ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD STILL POUR IN BEHIND THE LOW TO
POSSIBLY CAUSE ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SHOT OF COLD AND WIND FROM SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE BLEND... WITH LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE...THEN
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY AS WINDS GUST CLOSE TO 40
MPH...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL
TO AOB FREEZING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NYC SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE ALOFT...EXPECT GRADUAL MODERATION...WITH TEMPS STILL BELOW
NORMAL MON-TUE...THEN REACHING NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON WED AS A WARM
FRONT PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING ISOLD SHOWERS ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. S-SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BACK TO THE WEST...AND THEN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO 8-10 KT BY 22Z. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-8 KT
THIS EVENING.

MAINLY VFR FORECAST. MODELS INDICATING THAT SHOWERS ARE DRYING UP
AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT OCNL MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 5-10 KT ON THURSDAY...AND THEN
E-NE WINDS 5-10 KT ON FRIDAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY. PRECIP MAINLY
RAIN...BUT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT. NE-N
WINDS 15-20G20-25KT.
.SUNDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20G20-30KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH POST FRONTAL SHOWERS SLOWLY WEAKENING. WIND GUSTS
BEHIND THE FRONT WERE UP TO 25 KT AND QUICKLY DIMINISHED.
THEREFORE HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST OF FIRE
ISLAND INLET TO EXPIRE AT 22Z. THE SMALL CRAFT EAST IS UNTIL 06Z
AND MAY BE CANCELLED EARLIER AS GUSTS HAVE BEEN QUICKLY
DIMINISHING AND SEAS HAVE BEEN RUNNING BELOW 5 FT.

MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM LATE FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT NORTHERLY
GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON ALL WATERS
ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CONDS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON...WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON MORNING...AND ON THE
OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED FROM FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
IF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT...
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT COULD SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMTS CLOSER TO 1/2 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...BC/MET
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 292001
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
401 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
TYPE LOW WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CAROLINA
COAST ON FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST LOW WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE THE SECOND
INTENSIFIES AND ALSO PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST LATER
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...THEY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT COLDER AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST AS SKIES CLEAR.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAV/MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WAS ACCEPTED.
EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT NRN STREAM
VORT...NOW OVER NUNAVUT IN NORTHERN CANADA...WILL DIVE SE TO THE
GREAT LAKES BY FRI AND CARVE OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AND
SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW. THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE SE TO THE
CAROLINAS ON SAT...THEN PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE ALSO
NEGATIVELY TILTING THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH.

THE APPROACH OF THIS COMBO OF UPPER SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. AS THIS
LOW APPROACHES...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN EASTERLY AND BEGIN TO
MOISTEN ON FRI...AND A WEAK LEADING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
INTERACTING WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NW FROM THE
INCIPIENT OFFSHORE LOW TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER LONG ISLAND BY LATE DAY FRI OR EARLY FRI
EVENING...THEN INCREASING POP TO CHANCE AND THEN LIKELY MOST
PLACES DURING THE DAY ON SAT AND CAT ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND AS THE
OFFSHORE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS.

THEN AS THE POTENT CLOSED LOW ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...A STRONGER LOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST LATE DAY SAT INTO SAT EVENING...AND THEN HEAD NE...PASSING
OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
CLOSED LOW SHOULD REMAIN A SEPARATE ENTITY FROM THE LARGER
TROUGH...AND THIS LACK OF PHASING SHOULD PRECLUDE THE AREA FROM
SEEING HEAVY PRECIP...SO ACTUALLY HAVE DECREASING POP DURING SAT
NIGHT. ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD STILL POUR IN BEHIND THE LOW TO
POSSIBLY CAUSE ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SHOT OF COLD AND WIND FROM SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE BLEND... WITH LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE...THEN
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY AS WINDS GUST CLOSE TO 40
MPH...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL
TO AOB FREEZING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NYC SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE ALOFT...EXPECT GRADUAL MODERATION...WITH TEMPS STILL BELOW
NORMAL MON-TUE...THEN REACHING NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON WED AS A WARM
FRONT PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING ISOLD SHOWERS ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. S-SW WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BACK TO THE WEST...AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
HOURS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO
8-10 KT BY 22Z. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-8 KT THIS EVENING.

MAINLY VFR FORECAST. MODELS INDICATING THAT SHOWERS ARE DRYING UP
AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT OCNL MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 5-10 KT ON THURSDAY...AND THEN
E-NE WINDS 5-10 KT ON FRIDAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY. PRECIP MAINLY
RAIN...BUT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT. NE-N
WINDS 15-20G20-25KT.
.SUNDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20G20-30KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THIS EVENING. EXPECT SMALL
CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS...AHEAD OF AND WITH THE
FRONT. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 5 FT AND GUSTS WILL REACH 25 KT. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WIND DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE. SMALL CRAFTS ARE UP ON
THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS UNTIL 6PM AND ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN TIL 2AM.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
GRADUALLY DIMINISH. IN ADDITION...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FT.
MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM LATE FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT NORTHERLY
GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON ALL WATERS
ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CONDS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON...WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON MORNING...AND ON THE
OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH
THE SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED FROM FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
IF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT...
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT COULD SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMTS CLOSER TO 1/2 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN






000
FXUS61 KOKX 291745
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
145 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN MERGES WITH AN
EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT OFFSHORE...TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOW
THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TO THE WEST INTO
MONDAY...THEN TO THE SOUTH INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TIMING WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY REACH THE FAR WESTERN ZONES...AND
FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE SHOWERS BREAKING UP IS AT MOVES
EAST. EXPECT POPS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
THROUGH.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AS KEPT TEMPERATURES MILD TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY DEEPENS AND BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED.
ANY -SHRA WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE
THIS EVENING.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW DOES NOT INITIATE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...HELPING
USHER IN COLDER AIR. USED MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AS THEY HAVE BEEN
RELATIVELY CLOSER TO PREVIOUS OBSERVED MIN TEMPS.

FOR THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME
SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE
DAY...MAKING FOR DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THEREFORE...EXPECTING COASTAL
LOCATIONS TO BE WARMER THAN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. A COMBINATION OF
MAV AND ECS GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THINGS DRY. A WEAK 700-500 HPA
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FAR SE ZONES FRIDAY...WARRANTING SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE BY AFTERNOON. NOTE THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
ECMWF/NAM/GFS/SREF/CMC ALL SHOWING LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING NEAR/OVER
THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEVELOPING 850-500 HPA CLOSED
LOW DIVES SE FROM THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SE OF THE AREA. APPEARS
WILL SEE SUFFICIENT WEAK DYNAMICAL FORCING TO PRODUCE ISOLD-SCT
-SHRA OVER THE AREA AS A RESULT.

THIS CLOSED LOW BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY...THAT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
SATURDAY NIGHT. NOTE THE GFS FOR NOW APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN HOW
FAR E IT KEEPS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD...SO LEANED TOWARDS A
NON-GFS SOLUTION FOR POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS HAVE
LIKELY POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA AND HAVE CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS THAT NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA
COULD ULTIMATELY END UP DRY FROM THIS SYSTEM - HOWEVER DO NOT HAVE
CONFIDENCE TO GO BELOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. APPEARS SOLUTION
FOR THIS SYSTEM IS CONVERGING TO ONE WHERE FOR THE MOST PART THE
COLD AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE IN ENOUGH TIME TO PRODUCE ANY WIDESPREAD
SNOW OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS N OF LONG ISLAND
SOUND...AND POSSIBLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND WESTERN NE NJ...IF THE COLD AIR MOVES IN FAST ENOUGH
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END THERE. FOR NOW...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT...IN PARTICULAR HIGHER ELEVATIONS -
SAY THOSE ABOVE 1000-1500 FT - COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT INTENSITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION. AS IS USUAL IN THESE RAIN/SNOW CASES...THE HEAVIER
THE RATE OF PRECIPITATION FALL THE GREATER THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ALL
SNOW...AND THE LIGHTER THE RATE OF PRECIPITATION THE GREATER THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR ALL RAIN. ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NE NJ IT APPEARS THAT THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY
IF NOT ALL RAIN...SO HAVE FORECASTED ACCORDINGLY. ON THE WHOLE
CURRENT INDICATIONS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF MOST AREAS THAT DO SEE ANY
SNOWFALL RECEIVING LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATION - AND THEN MAINLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES IF AT ALL - BEING AT ELEVATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 1000-1500
FT.

GUSTY NE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY E ZONES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO MAYBE 40 MPH POSSIBLE....WITH GUSTS
OF 20 TO MAYBE 30 MPH POSSIBLE OVER W ZONES.

THE STORM EXITS FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE NE SUNDAY...FOR NOW HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA/-SHSN OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SUNDAY ENDED UP BEING DRY
THROUGHOUT. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30-40 MPH QUITE POSSIBLE.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...THEN OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EXISTS TO THE
EAST ON TUESDAY. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME
FOR NOW. DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW FAST THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE
EAST...COULD END UP NEEDING POPS BY LATE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME
TO WARRANT MAKING THAT CHANGE NOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG RANGE:
FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT - NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING - USED THE MINIMUM OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM W-METER
TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT OVER THE NYC METRO WHERE A BLEND OF THE THREE
WAS USED. EXPECT VALUES TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS
USED FOR HIGHS. READINGS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE
WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE
AROUND NORMAL IN THE IMMEDIATE NYC METRO...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

FROM SATURDAY-TUESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED...WITH ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT TO BETTER REFLECT IMPACT OF PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL
RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL...LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER WILL CONTINUE
TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BACK TO THE WEST...AND
THEN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO 8-10 KT BY 21-22Z. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-8
KT THIS EVENING.

MAINLY VFR FORECAST. MODELS INDICATING THAT SHOWERS ARE DRYING UP
AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT OCNL MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 5-10 KT ON THURSDAY...AND THEN
E-NE WINDS 5-10 KT ON FRIDAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY. PRECIP MAINLY
RAIN...BUT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT. NE-N
WINDS 15-20G20-25KT.
.SUNDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20G20-30KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BASED
ON THE NEW 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE. HAVE EXTENDED THE TIME OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN ZONES UNTIL 06Z. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT SEA WILL LINGER AROUND 5 FT A BIT LONGER THAN
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS TODAY
AND MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
TODAY...THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT WINDS
AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FRONT.

A RELATIVELY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL
PRODUCE WINDS OF 10KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS INCREASE TO 10-20KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
GUSTS...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE PASSING OF A
STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW TO THE SE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON ALL WATERS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A HALF AN INCH OR SO OF QPF TO FALL
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC
IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JM
NEAR TERM...BC/MALOIT/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/MALOIT/JM
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JM













000
FXUS61 KOKX 291429
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1029 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN MERGES WITH AN
EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT OFFSHORE...TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOW
THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TO THE WEST INTO
MONDAY...THEN TO THE SOUTH INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS AS IT BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE
TRAVELING THROUGH QUEBEC.

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO REACH THE FAR WESTERN ZONES...AND FORECAST
GUIDANCE SHOWING THE SHOWERS BREAKING UP IS AT MOVES EAST.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE.

WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING TODAY...A VERY MILD DAY
IS ANTICIPATED.

A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE OF ECS...MAV...AND GMOS WAS USED WITH
GREATER WEIGHT OF THE WARMER ECS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY DEEPENS AND BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED.
ANY -SHRA WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE
THIS EVENING.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW DOES NOT INITIATE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...HELPING
USHER IN COLDER AIR. USED MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AS THEY HAVE BEEN
RELATIVELY CLOSER TO PREVIOUS OBSERVED MIN TEMPS.

FOR THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME
SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE
DAY...MAKING FOR DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THEREFORE...EXPECTING COASTAL
LOCATIONS TO BE WARMER THAN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. A COMBINATION OF
MAV AND ECS GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THINGS DRY. A WEAK 700-500 HPA
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FAR SE ZONES FRIDAY...WARRANTING SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE BY AFTERNOON. NOTE THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
ECMWF/NAM/GFS/SREF/CMC ALL SHOWING LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING NEAR/OVER
THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEVELOPING 850-500 HPA CLOSED
LOW DIVES SE FROM THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SE OF THE AREA. APPEARS
WILL SEE SUFFICIENT WEAK DYNAMICAL FORCING TO PRODUCE ISOLD-SCT
-SHRA OVER THE AREA AS A RESULT.

THIS CLOSED LOW BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY...THAT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
SATURDAY NIGHT. NOTE THE GFS FOR NOW APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN HOW
FAR E IT KEEPS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD...SO LEANED TOWARDS A
NON-GFS SOLUTION FOR POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS HAVE
LIKELY POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA AND HAVE CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS THAT NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA
COULD ULTIMATELY END UP DRY FROM THIS SYSTEM - HOWEVER DO NOT HAVE
CONFIDENCE TO GO BELOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. APPEARS SOLUTION
FOR THIS SYSTEM IS CONVERGING TO ONE WHERE FOR THE MOST PART THE
COLD AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE IN ENOUGH TIME TO PRODUCE ANY WIDESPREAD
SNOW OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS N OF LONG ISLAND
SOUND...AND POSSIBLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND WESTERN NE NJ...IF THE COLD AIR MOVES IN FAST ENOUGH
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END THERE. FOR NOW...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT...IN PARTICULAR HIGHER ELEVATIONS -
SAY THOSE ABOVE 1000-1500 FT - COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT INTENSITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION. AS IS USUAL IN THESE RAIN/SNOW CASES...THE HEAVIER
THE RATE OF PRECIPITATION FALL THE GREATER THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ALL
SNOW...AND THE LIGHTER THE RATE OF PRECIPITATION THE GREATER THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR ALL RAIN. ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NE NJ IT APPEARS THAT THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY
IF NOT ALL RAIN...SO HAVE FORECASTED ACCORDINGLY. ON THE WHOLE
CURRENT INDICATIONS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF MOST AREAS THAT DO SEE ANY
SNOWFALL RECEIVING LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATION - AND THEN MAINLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES IF AT ALL - BEING AT ELEVATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 1000-1500
FT.

GUSTY NE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY E ZONES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO MAYBE 40 MPH POSSIBLE....WITH GUSTS
OF 20 TO MAYBE 30 MPH POSSIBLE OVER W ZONES.

THE STORM EXITS FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE NE SUNDAY...FOR NOW HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA/-SHSN OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SUNDAY ENDED UP BEING DRY
THROUGHOUT. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30-40 MPH QUITE POSSIBLE.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...THEN OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EXISTS TO THE
EAST ON TUESDAY. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME
FOR NOW. DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW FAST THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE
EAST...COULD END UP NEEDING POPS BY LATE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME
TO WARRANT MAKING THAT CHANGE NOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG RANGE:
FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT - NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING - USED THE MINIMUM OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM W-METER
TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT OVER THE NYC METRO WHERE A BLEND OF THE THREE
WAS USED. EXPECT VALUES TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS
USED FOR HIGHS. READINGS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE
WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE
AROUND NORMAL IN THE IMMEDIATE NYC METRO...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

FROM SATURDAY-TUESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED...WITH ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT TO BETTER REFLECT IMPACT OF PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL
RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL...LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PREFRONTAL TROF PASSES THRU THE REGION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
FOLLOWED BY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THIS EVE.

VFR FORECAST. A FEW SHRA OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TROF AND FRONT TODAY. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF MVFR SHRA IS
POSSIBLE...IT WILL BE MAINLY VFR TODAY AND TNGT.

SWLY WINDS VEER TO THE W WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF BETWEEN
15-17Z. THE FRONT BRINGS WINDS TO THE NW TNGT AFT 00Z. OCNL GUSTS
THIS MRNG BECOME MORE FREQUENT IN THE AFTN AND ARE INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS AS A RESULT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC OF MVFR VSBY IN HZ THRU 16Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.THU-FRI...VFR.

.FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY...MAINLY VIA RAIN SHOWERS
BUT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT KSWF DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING.
NE-N WINDS G20-25KT.

.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. N
WINDS G25-30KT.

.SUNDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING. NW WINDS
G25-35KT.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

SEAS HAVE BEEN RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF SCA OF 5 FT MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASED SW FLOW THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND THEN THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE S-SE SWELL KEEPING SEAS
RELATIVELY HIGHER. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT MAY BE MORE LIMITED BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS TO THAT MAGNITUDE...PARTICULARLY LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE CONTINUED THE SCA ON
ALL COASTAL OCEAN ZONES FOR TODAY.

BY TONIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY JUST BE CONFINED TO
THE OCEAN ZONE OF MORICHES INLET TO MONTAUK INLET OUT 20 NM AND
THEN BY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AS
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER. AS A RESULT...ONLY HAVE SCA IN EFFECT E
OF MORICHES INLET THIS EVENING.

A RELATIVELY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL
PRODUCE WINDS OF 10KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS INCREASE TO 10-20KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
GUSTS...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE PASSING OF A
STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW TO THE SE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON ALL WATERS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A HALF AN INCH OR SO OF QPF TO FALL
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC
IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JM
NEAR TERM...BC/MALOIT/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/JM
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JM












000
FXUS61 KOKX 291146
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
746 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN MERGES WITH AN
EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT OFFSHORE...TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOW
THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TO THE WEST INTO
MONDAY...THEN TO THE SOUTH INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS AS IT BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE
TRAVELING THROUGH QUEBEC.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT LINE OF -SHRA JUST REACHING FAR W
ZONES AROUND 10-11Z...WILL BREAK UP IS AT MOVES EAST. HENCE...JUST
HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE.

MOIST LOW LEVELS AND PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITH DIURNAL
WARMING. WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING TODAY...A VERY
MILD DAY IS ANTICIPATED.

A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE OF ECS...MAV...AND GMOS WAS USED WITH
GREATER WEIGHT OF THE WARMER ECS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY DEEPENS AND BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED.
ANY -SHRA WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE
THIS EVENING.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW DOES NOT INITIATE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...HELPING
USHER IN COLDER AIR. USED MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AS THEY HAVE BEEN
RELATIVELY CLOSER TO PREVIOUS OBSERVED MIN TEMPS.

FOR THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME
SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE
DAY...MAKING FOR DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THEREFORE...EXPECTING COASTAL
LOCATIONS TO BE WARMER THAN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. A COMBINATION OF
MAV AND ECS GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THINGS DRY. A WEAK 700-500 HPA
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FAR SE ZONES FRIDAY...WARRANTING SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE BY AFTERNOON. NOTE THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
ECMWF/NAM/GFS/SREF/CMC ALL SHOWING LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING NEAR/OVER
THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEVELOPING 850-500 HPA CLOSED
LOW DIVES SE FROM THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SE OF THE AREA. APPEARS
WILL SEE SUFFICIENT WEAK DYNAMICAL FORCING TO PRODUCE ISOLD-SCT
-SHRA OVER THE AREA AS A RESULT.

THIS CLOSED LOW BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY...THAT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
SATURDAY NIGHT. NOTE THE GFS FOR NOW APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN HOW
FAR E IT KEEPS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD...SO LEANED TOWARDS A
NON-GFS SOLUTION FOR POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS HAVE
LIKELY POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA AND HAVE CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS THAT NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA
COULD ULTIMATELY END UP DRY FROM THIS SYSTEM - HOWEVER DO NOT HAVE
CONFIDENCE TO GO BELOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. APPEARS SOLUTION
FOR THIS SYSTEM IS CONVERGING TO ONE WHERE FOR THE MOST PART THE
COLD AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE IN ENOUGH TIME TO PRODUCE ANY WIDESPREAD
SNOW OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS N OF LONG ISLAND
SOUND...AND POSSIBLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND WESTERN NE NJ...IF THE COLD AIR MOVES IN FAST ENOUGH
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END THERE. FOR NOW...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT...IN PARTICULAR HIGHER ELEVATIONS -
SAY THOSE ABOVE 1000-1500 FT - COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT INTENSITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION. AS IS USUAL IN THESE RAIN/SNOW CASES...THE HEAVIER
THE RATE OF PRECIPITATION FALL THE GREATER THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ALL
SNOW...AND THE LIGHTER THE RATE OF PRECIPITATION THE GREATER THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR ALL RAIN. ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NE NJ IT APPEARS THAT THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY
IF NOT ALL RAIN...SO HAVE FORECASTED ACCORDINGLY. ON THE WHOLE
CURRENT INDICATIONS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF MOST AREAS THAT DO SEE ANY
SNOWFALL RECEIVING LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATION - AND THEN MAINLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES IF AT ALL - BEING AT ELEVATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 1000-1500
FT.

GUSTY NE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY E ZONES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO MAYBE 40 MPH POSSIBLE....WITH GUSTS
OF 20 TO MAYBE 30 MPH POSSIBLE OVER W ZONES.

THE STORM EXITS FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE NE SUNDAY...FOR NOW HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA/-SHSN OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SUNDAY ENDED UP BEING DRY
THROUGHOUT. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30-40 MPH QUITE POSSIBLE.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...THEN OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EXISTS TO THE
EAST ON TUESDAY. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME
FOR NOW. DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW FAST THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE
EAST...COULD END UP NEEDING POPS BY LATE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME
TO WARRANT MAKING THAT CHANGE NOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG RANGE:
FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT - NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING - USED THE MINIMUM OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM W-METER
TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT OVER THE NYC METRO WHERE A BLEND OF THE THREE
WAS USED. EXPECT VALUES TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS
USED FOR HIGHS. READINGS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE
WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE
AROUND NORMAL IN THE IMMEDIATE NYC METRO...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

FROM SATURDAY-TUESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED...WITH ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT TO BETTER REFLECT IMPACT OF PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL
RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL...LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PREFRONTAL TROF PASSES THRU THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THIS EVE.

POCKETS OF MVFR VSBY IN BR POSSIBLE THRU 14Z. BEST CHCS OUTSIDE OF
THE CITY WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTER. OTHERWISE VFR.

A FEW SHRA OR SPRINKLES INVOF THE TROF AND FRONT TODAY. ALTHOUGH A
BRIEF MVFR SHRA IS POSSIBLE...IT WILL BE MAINLY VFR TODAY AND
TNGT.

SWLY WINDS VEER TO THE W WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF. THE FRONT
BRINGS WINDS TO THE NW TNGT AFT 00Z. OCNL GUSTS THIS MRNG BECOME
MORE FREQUENT IN THE AFTN AND ARE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AS A
RESULT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC OF MVFR VSBY IN BR THRU 14Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.THU-FRI...VFR.

.FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY...MAINLY VIA RAIN SHOWERS
BUT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT KSWF DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING.
NE-N WINDS G20-25KT.

.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. N
WINDS G25-30KT.

.SUNDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING. NW WINDS
G25-35KT.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

SEAS HAVE BEEN RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF SCA OF 5 FT MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASED SW FLOW THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND THEN THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE S-SE SWELL KEEPING SEAS
RELATIVELY HIGHER. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT MAY BE MORE LIMITED BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS TO THAT MAGNITUDE...PARTICULARLY LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE CONTINUED THE SCA ON
ALL COASTAL OCEAN ZONES FOR TODAY.

BY TONIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY JUST BE CONFINED TO
THE OCEAN ZONE OF MORICHES INLET TO MONTAUK INLET OUT 20 NM AND
THEN BY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AS
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER. AS A RESULT...ONLY HAVE SCA IN EFFECT E
OF MORICHES INLET THIS EVENING.

A RELATIVELY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL
PRODUCE WINDS OF 10KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS INCREASE TO 10-20KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
GUSTS...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE PASSING OF A
STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW TO THE SE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON ALL WATERS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A HALF AN INCH OR SO OF QPF TO FALL
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC
IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JM/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JM/MALOIT








000
FXUS61 KOKX 290855
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
455 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE WHOLE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN
MERGES WITH AN EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT OFFSHORE...TO PRODUCE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
SUNDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TO THE WEST
INTO MONDAY...THEN TO THE SOUTH INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS AS IT BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE
TRAVELING THROUGH QUEBEC. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION...WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH IN THE EVENING.
THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED TO THE FRONT SLOWLY DEEPENS THROUGH THE
DAY WHILE MOVING IN MORE OF A NORTHWARD DIRECTION.

INITIALLY THIS MORNING...MOIST LOW LEVELS AND PATCHY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE WITH DIURNAL WARMING...AND WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASING TODAY...A VERY MILD DAY IS ANTICIPATED.

A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE OF ECS...MAV...AND GMOS WAS USED WITH
GREATER WEIGHT OF THE WARMER ECS. WITH THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST
FLOW BY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS...LESS MARINE INFLUENCE WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY.

IN ADDITION...MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND KEEP
INDICATING SHOWERS BREAKING UP WITH EASTWARD MOVEMENT...LENDING TO
A DRIER FORECAST OVERALL. HENCE...JUST HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE...LATER WITH GREATER EASTWARD DISTANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY DEEPENS AND BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED
AS THE PARENT LOW NEARLY MAINTAINS THE SAME STRENGTH. SHOWERS
WILL HAVE GREATEST PROBABILITY EARLY THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION NEAR AND RIGHT BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
SHOWERS EVENTUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE THIS EVENING.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW DOES NOT INITIATE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...HELPING
USHER IN COLDER AIR. USED MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AS THEY HAVE BEEN
RELATIVELY CLOSER TO PREVIOUS OBSERVED MIN TEMPS.

FOR THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME
SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE
DAY...MAKING FOR DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THEREFORE...EXPECTING COASTAL
LOCATIONS TO BE WARMER THAN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. A COMBINATION OF
MAV AND ECS GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THINGS DRY. A WEAK 700-500 HPA
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FAR SE ZONES FRIDAY...WARRANTING SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE BY AFTERNOON. NOTE THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
ECMWF/NAM/GFS/SREF/CMC ALL SHOWING LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING NEAR/OVER
THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEVELOPING 850-500 HPA CLOSED
LOW DIVES SE FROM THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SE OF THE AREA. APPEARS
WILL SEE SUFFICIENT WEAK DYNAMICAL FORCING TO PRODUCE ISOLD-SCT
-SHRA OVER THE AREA AS A RESULT.

THIS CLOSED LOW BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY...THAT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
SATURDAY NIGHT. NOTE THE GFS FOR NOW APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN HOW
FAR E IT KEEPS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD...SO LEANED TOWARDS A
NON-GFS SOLUTION FOR POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS HAVE
LIKELY POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA AND HAVE CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS THAT NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA
COULD ULTIMATELY END UP DRY FROM THIS SYSTEM - HOWEVER DO NOT HAVE
CONFIDENCE TO GO BELOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. APPEARS SOLUTION
FOR THIS SYSTEM IS CONVERGING TO ONE WHERE FOR THE MOST PART THE
COLD AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE IN ENOUGH TIME TO PRODUCE ANY WIDESPREAD
SNOW OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS N OF LONG ISLAND
SOUND...AND POSSIBLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND WESTERN NE NJ...IF THE COLD AIR MOVES IN FAST ENOUGH
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END THERE. FOR NOW...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT...IN PARTICULAR HIGHER ELEVATIONS -
SAY THOSE ABOVE 1000-1500 FT - COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT INTENSITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION. AS IS USUAL IN THESE RAIN/SNOW CASES...THE HEAVIER
THE RATE OF PRECIPITATION FALL THE GREATER THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ALL
SNOW...AND THE LIGHTER THE RATE OF PRECIPITATION THE GREATER THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR ALL RAIN. ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NE NJ IT APPEARS THAT THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY
IF NOT ALL RAIN...SO HAVE FORECASTED ACCORDINGLY. ON THE WHOLE
CURRENT INDICATIONS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF MOST AREAS THAT DO SEE ANY
SNOWFALL RECEIVING LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATION - AND THEN MAINLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES IF AT ALL - BEING AT ELEVATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 1000-1500
FT.

GUSTY NE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY E ZONES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO MAYBE 40 MPH POSSIBLE....WITH GUSTS
OF 20 TO MAYBE 30 MPH POSSIBLE OVER W ZONES.

THE STORM EXITS FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE NE SUNDAY...FOR NOW HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA/-SHSN OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SUNDAY ENDED UP BEING DRY
THROUGHOUT. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30-40 MPH QUITE POSSIBLE.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...THEN OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EXISTS TO THE
EAST ON TUESDAY. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME
FOR NOW. DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW FAST THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE
EAST...COULD END UP NEEDING POPS BY LATE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME
TO WARRANT MAKING THAT CHANGE NOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG RANGE:
FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT - NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING - USED THE MINIMUM OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM W-METER
TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT OVER THE NYC METRO WHERE A BLEND OF THE THREE
WAS USED. EXPECT VALUES TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS
USED FOR HIGHS. READINGS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE
WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE
AROUND NORMAL IN THE IMMEDIATE NYC METRO...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

FROM SATURDAY-TUESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED...WITH ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT TO BETTER REFLECT IMPACT OF PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL
RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL...LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PREFRONTAL TROF PASSES THRU THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THIS EVE.

POCKETS OF MVFR VSBY IN BR THRU 14Z. BEST CHCS OUTSIDE OF THE
CITY WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTER. OTHERWISE VFR.

A FEW SHRA OR SPRINKLES INVOF THE TROF AND FRONT TODAY. ALTHOUGH A
BRIEF MVFR SHRA IS POSSIBLE...IT WILL BE MAINLY VFR TODAY AND
TNGT.

SWLY WINDS...AT TIMES VRB THRU 12Z...VEER TO THE W WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROF. THE FRONT BRINGS WINDS TO THE NW TNGT AFT
00Z. OCNL GUSTS POSSIBLE AFT 12Z...THEN BECOME MORE FREQUENT IN
THE AFTN AND ARE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AS A RESULT.

WINDS AT 2000 FT AROUND 35 KT TIL ABOUT 12Z.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC OF MVFR BR DEVELOPING THRU 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC OF MVFR BR DEVELOPING THRU 14Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC OF MVFR BR DEVELOPING THRU 14Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BR MAY BECOME MVFR AT TIMES THRU 14Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR VSBY MAY IMPROVE BEFORE 14Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BR MAY BECOME MVFR AT TIMES THRU 14Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.WED NIGHT-FRI...VFR.

.FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY...MAINLY VIA RAIN SHOWERS
BUT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT KSWF DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING.
NE-N WINDS G20-25KT.

.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. N
WINDS G25-30KT.

.SUNDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING. NW WINDS
G25-35KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE BEEN RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF SCA OF 5 FT MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY
FETCH THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST SWELL KEEPING SEAS RELATIVELY HIGHER. WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT MAY BE MORE LIMITED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS TO THAT
MAGNITUDE...PARTICULARLY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

BY TONIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY JUST BE CONFINED TO
THE OCEAN ZONE OF MORICHES INLET TO MONTAUK INLET OUT 20 NM AND
THEN BY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AS
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER. THESE SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY.

A RELATIVELY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL PRODUCE
WINDS OF 10KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS INCREASE TO 10-20KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT GUSTS...MAINLY
OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE PASSING OF A
STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW TO THE SE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON ALL WATERS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A HALF AN INCH OR SO OF QPF TO FALL
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC
IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MALOIT/JM
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JM









000
FXUS61 KOKX 290812
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
412 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE WHOLE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN
MERGES WITH AN EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT OFFSHORE...TO PRODUCE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
SUNDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TO THE WEST
INTO MONDAY...THEN TO THE SOUTH INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS AS IT BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE
TRAVELING THROUGH QUEBEC. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION...WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH IN THE EVENING.
THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED TO THE FRONT SLOWLY DEEPENS THROUGH THE
DAY WHILE MOVING IN MORE OF A NORTHWARD DIRECTION.

INITIALLY THIS MORNING...MOIST LOW LEVELS AND PATCHY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE WITH DIURNAL WARMING...AND WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASING TODAY...A VERY MILD DAY IS ANTICIPATED.

A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE OF ECS...MAV...AND GMOS WAS USED WITH
GREATER WEIGHT OF THE WARMER ECS. WITH THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST
FLOW BY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS...LESS MARINE INFLUENCE WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY.

IN ADDITION...MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND KEEP
INDICATING SHOWERS BREAKING UP WITH EASTWARD MOVEMENT...LENDING TO
A DRIER FORECAST OVERALL. HENCE...JUST HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE...LATER WITH GREATER EASTWARD DISTANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY DEEPENS AND BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED
AS THE PARENT LOW NEARLY MAINTAINS THE SAME STRENGTH. SHOWERS
WILL HAVE GREATEST PROBABILITY EARLY THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION NEAR AND RIGHT BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
SHOWERS EVENTUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE THIS EVENING.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW DOES NOT INITIATE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...HELPING
USHER IN COLDER AIR. USED MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AS THEY HAVE BEEN
RELATIVELY CLOSER TO PREVIOUS OBSERVED MIN TEMPS.

FOR THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME
SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE
DAY...MAKING FOR DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THEREFORE...EXPECTING COASTAL
LOCATIONS TO BE WARMER THAN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. A COMBINATION OF
MAV AND ECS GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THINGS DRY. A WEAK 700-500 HPA
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FAR SE ZONES FRIDAY...WARRANTING SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE BY AFTERNOON. NOTE THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
ECMWF/NAM/GFS/SREF/CMC ALL SHOWING LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING NEAR/OVER
THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEVELOPING 850-500 HPA CLOSED
LOW DIVES SE FROM THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SE OF THE AREA. APPEARS
WILL SEE SUFFICIENT WEAK DYNAMICAL FORCING TO PRODUCE ISOLD-SCT
-SHRA OVER THE AREA AS A RESULT.

THIS CLOSED LOW BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY...THAT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
SATURDAY NIGHT. NOTE THE GFS FOR NOW APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN HOW
FAR E IT KEEPS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD...SO LEANED TOWARDS A
NON-GFS SOLUTION FOR POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS HAVE
LIKELY POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA AND HAVE CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS THAT NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA
COULD ULTIMATELY END UP DRY FROM THIS SYSTEM - HOWEVER DO NOT HAVE
CONFIDENCE TO GO BELOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. APPEARS SOLUTION
FOR THIS SYSTEM IS CONVERGING TO ONE WHERE FOR THE MOST PART THE
COLD AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE IN ENOUGH TIME TO PRODUCE ANY WIDESPREAD
SNOW OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS N OF LONG ISLAND
SOUND...AND POSSIBLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND WESTERN NE NJ...IF THE COLD AIR MOVES IN FAST ENOUGH
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END THERE. FOR NOW...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT...IN PARTICULAR HIGHER ELEVATIONS -
SAY THOSE ABOVE 1000-1500 FT - COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT INTENSITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION. AS IS USUAL IN THESE RAIN/SNOW CASES...THE HEAVIER
THE RATE OF PRECIPITATION FALL THE GREATER THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ALL
SNOW...AND THE LIGHTER THE RATE OF PRECIPITATION THE GREATER THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR ALL RAIN. ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NE NJ IT APPEARS THAT THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY
IF NOT ALL RAIN...SO HAVE FORECASTED ACCORDINGLY. ON THE WHOLE
CURRENT INDICATIONS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF MOST AREAS THAT DO SEE ANY
SNOWFALL RECEIVING LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATION - AND THEN MAINLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES IF AT ALL - BEING AT ELEVATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 1000-1500
FT.

GUSTY NE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY E ZONES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO MAYBE 40 MPH POSSIBLE....WITH GUSTS
OF 20 TO MAYBE 30 MPH POSSIBLE OVER W ZONES.

THE STORM EXITS FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE NE SUNDAY...FOR NOW HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA/-SHSN OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SUNDAY ENDED UP BEING DRY
THROUGHOUT. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30-40 MPH QUITE POSSIBLE.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...THEN OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EXISTS TO THE
EAST ON TUESDAY. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME
FOR NOW. DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW FAST THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE
EAST...COULD END UP NEEDING POPS BY LATE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME
TO WARRANT MAKING THAT CHANGE NOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG RANGE:
FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT - NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING - USED THE MINIMUM OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM W-METER
TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT OVER THE NYC METRO WHERE A BLEND OF THE THREE
WAS USED. EXPECT VALUES TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS
USED FOR HIGHS. READINGS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE
WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE
AROUND NORMAL IN THE IMMEDIATE NYC METRO...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

FROM SATURDAY-TUESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED...WITH ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT TO BETTER REFLECT IMPACT OF PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL
RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL...LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THRU THE REGION TODAY.

A FEW SHRA OR SPRINKLES INVOF THE FRONT TODAY. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
MVFR SHRA IS POSSIBLE...IT WILL BE MAINLY VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

SWLY WINDS VEER TO THE W WITH THE FRONT. A SECOND FEATURE BRINGS
WINDS TO THE NW TNGT AFT 2Z. OCNL GUSTS POSSIBLE AFT 12Z...THEN
BECOME MORE FREQUENT IN THE AFTN AND ARE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AS A
RESULT.

WINDS AT 2K FT AROUND 35-40KT TIL 10-12Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.WED NIGHT-FRI...VFR.

.FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS LIKELY...MAINLY VIA RAIN
SHOWERS BUT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT KSWF DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING. NE-N WINDS G20-25KT.

.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS LIKELY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW. N WINDS G25-30KT.

.SUNDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING. NW WINDS
G25-30KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE BEEN RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF SCA OF 5 FT MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY
FETCH THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST SWELL KEEPING SEAS RELATIVELY HIGHER. WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT MAY BE MORE LIMITED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS TO THAT
MAGNITUDE...PARTICULARLY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

BY TONIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY JUST BE CONFINED TO
THE OCEAN ZONE OF MORICHES INLET TO MONTAUK INLET OUT 20 NM AND
THEN BY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AS
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER. THESE SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY.

A RELATIVELY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL PRODUCE
WINDS OF 10KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS INCREASE TO 10-20KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT GUSTS...MAINLY
OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE PASSING OF A
STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW TO THE SE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON ALL WATERS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A HALF AN INCH OR SO OF QPF TO FALL
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC
IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MALOIT/JM
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JM










000
FXUS61 KOKX 290531
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
131 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...AND THEN OFFSHORE...FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CIRRUS THICKENING AND INCREASING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY INCREASING FROM LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW...SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. EXPECTING MORE PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AS TEMP AND DEWPOINT DIFFERENCES BECOME SMALLER. LOWS WERE
SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED AND WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN
QUEBEC OVERNIGHT WITH WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE NE
US. RESULTANT SURFACE LOW TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE UPPER
LOW...WITH TAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

WITH UPPER/MID LEVEL ENERGY AND THERMAL ADVECTION LAGGING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS COULD REACH AREAS FAR N&W OF NYC TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS FRONT IMPINGES ON THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO MOVE NE THROUGH THROUGH
NORTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SLOWLY CROSSING W TO E THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND PUSHING EAST WED
NIGHT.

MOST OF THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE POST FRONTAL IN WAKE
OF INITIAL COLD FRONT PASSAGE...AS SHORTWAVE/RIGHT REAR JET ENERGY
APPROACH AND AHEAD OF A SECONDARY FRONT WITH SHOT OF CAA. THIS
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE W TO E ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY MILD DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND WITH CAA LAGGING FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE WED NIGHT WITH ANY LAGGING
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN CT/LI COMING TO AN END IN THE
EVENING. CONTINUED CAA ON NW FLOW WILL BRING TEMPS CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMS LAT WED NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z MODELS DIVERGE IN TERMS OF TIMING...STRENGTH...AND PLACEMENT OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE RESULT
REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN TERMS OF PTYPE FOR THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. DRY CONDS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH THEN DIGS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
FRIDAY...AND STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SPIN UP A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. LIGHT PRECIP WILL DEVELOP
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIP THAT IMPACTS THE REGION AND THE PTYPE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR
EAST/WEST THAT LOW TRACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS IS
MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE...AND KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP OVER THE
ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE WEST THAN
IT WAS PREVIOUSLY. 12Z CMC IS FASTER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE COMPARED
TO BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS SUPPORT FROM SOME OF THE GFS
MEMBERS...BUT NOT ALL. THE ECMWF TRACK WOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH WARM
AIR TO SURGE ALONG THE COAST TO KEEP PRECIP RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS
ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN COLD AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND IT SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. WHAT ALSO REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS HOW FAR
WEST BANDING BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE ABLE TO SPREAD. AS A RESULT...
SATURDAY NIGHT SEEMS TO BE SHAPING UP AS A BIT MORE INTERESTING THAN
SATURDAY...BUT THAT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

WILL BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
EASTERN AREAS.

SOME PRECIP MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES RETURNS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
COULD BE LOWER DEPENDING ON DYNAMICAL COOLING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW. TEMPS THEN MODERATE GOING INTO THE NEW
WEEK...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THRU THE REGION TODAY.

A FEW SHRA OR SPRINKLES INVOF THE FRONT TODAY. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
MVFR SHRA IS POSSIBLE...IT WILL BE MAINLY VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

SWLY WINDS VEER TO THE W WITH THE FRONT. A SECOND FEATURE BRINGS
WINDS TO THE NW TNGT AFT 2Z. OCNL GUSTS POSSIBLE AFT 12Z...THEN
BECOME MORE FREQUENT IN THE AFTN AND ARE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AS A
RESULT.

WINDS AT 2K FT AROUND 35-40KT TIL 10-12Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.WED NIGHT-FRI...VFR.

.FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS LIKELY...MAINLY VIA RAIN
SHOWERS BUT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT KSWF DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING. NE-N WINDS G20-25KT.

.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS LIKELY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW. N WINDS G25-30KT.

.SUNDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING. NW WINDS
G25-30KT.

&&

.MARINE...
PERSISTENT 15 TO 20 KT S/SW FLOW ON THE OCEAN WILL KEEP OCEAN SEAS
UP TO SCA LEVELS OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WIND GUSTS AT TIMES COULD REACH 25 KT ON THE OCEAN OVERNIGHT INTO
WED AM...BUT FREQUENCY WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT. FOR OTHER WATERS...GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 20 KT
AT TIMES. THE SCA SEAS COULD LINGER ACROSS EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
RESIDUAL 4-5 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THU-FRI. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH GALES POSSIBLE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE
ATLANTIC. IMPROVEMENT FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK AS THE STORM
PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVE.

MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/NV
NEAR TERM...JM/NV/DW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MPS/NV
HYDROLOGY...MPS/NV










000
FXUS61 KOKX 290235
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1035 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...AND
THEN OFFSHORE...FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. DUE TO THICKENING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 30 KFT...THIS MAY PUT A CHECK ON SOME OF
THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY
MOISTEN WITH A S/SW WIND AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LOWS WILL HOLD NEARLY
STEADY ACROSS THE NYC METRO...AND DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
IN THE OUTLYING SUBURBS.

UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN QUEBEC TONIGHT
WITH WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE NE US. RESULTANT
SURFACE LOW TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE UPPER LOW...WITH TAILING
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION TONIGHT.

WITH UPPER/MID LEVEL ENERGY AND THERMAL ADVECTION LAGGING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT.
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS REACHING AREAS FAR N&W OF NYC TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AS FRONT IMPINGES ON THE REGION.

POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN COASTAL
AREAS LATE TONIGHT WITH MOIST RETURN FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING. POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS CT VALLEYS AND COAST
IF CIRRUS REMAIN THIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO MOVE NE THROUGH THROUGH
NORTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SLOWLY CROSSING W TO E THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND PUSHING EAST WED
NIGHT.

MOST OF THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE POST FRONTAL IN WAKE
OF INITIAL COLD FRONT PASSAGE...AS SHORTWAVE/RIGHT REAR JET ENERGY
APPROACH AND AHEAD OF A SECONDARY FRONT WITH SHOT OF CAA. THIS
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE W TO E ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY MILD DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND WITH CAA LAGGING FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE WED NIGHT WITH ANY LAGGING
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN CT/LI COMING TO AN END IN THE
EVENING. CONTINUED CAA ON NW FLOW WILL BRING TEMPS CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMS LAT WED NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z MODELS DIVERGE IN TERMS OF TIMING...STRENGTH...AND PLACEMENT OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE RESULT
REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN TERMS OF PTYPE FOR THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. DRY CONDS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH THEN DIGS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
FRIDAY...AND STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SPIN UP A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. LIGHT PRECIP WILL DEVELOP
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIP THAT IMPACTS THE REGION AND THE PTYPE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR
EAST/WEST THAT LOW TRACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS IS
MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE...AND KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP OVER THE
ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE WEST THAN
IT WAS PREVIOUSLY. 12Z CMC IS FASTER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE COMPARED
TO BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS SUPPORT FROM SOME OF THE GFS
MEMBERS...BUT NOT ALL. THE ECMWF TRACK WOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH WARM
AIR TO SURGE ALONG THE COAST TO KEEP PRECIP RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS
ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN COLD AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND IT SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. WHAT ALSO REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS HOW FAR
WEST BANDING BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE ABLE TO SPREAD. AS A RESULT...
SATURDAY NIGHT SEEMS TO BE SHAPING UP AS A BIT MORE INTERESTING THAN
SATURDAY...BUT THAT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

WILL BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
EASTERN AREAS.

SOME PRECIP MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES RETURNS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
COULD BE LOWER DEPENDING ON DYNAMICAL COOLING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW. TEMPS THEN MODERATE GOING INTO THE NEW
WEEK...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT...AND ENTER THE AREA
LATE WEDS MORNING.

VFR FOR THE CITY TERMINALS...OTHERWISE MVFR VSBYS AND POSSIBLY CIGS
AS WELL LATE TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE CITY. CONFIDENCE IN MVFR
DEVELOPMENT IS MODERATE.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SW UNDER 10 KT THIS EVENING. SW WINDS AT
FL020 WILL INCREASE TO 40-45 KT TONIGHT FOR THE CITY TERMINALS FROM
APPROX 04-07Z...AND ABOUT AN HOUR LATER FARTHER EAST.

SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR ON WEDS...BUT SHRA POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.WED NIGHT-FRI...VFR.

.FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS LIKELY...MAINLY VIA RAIN
SHOWERS BUT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT KSWF DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING. NE-N WINDS G20-25KT.

.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS LIKELY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW. N WINDS G25-30KT.

.SUNDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING. NW WINDS
G25-30KT.

&&

.MARINE...
PERSISTENT 15 TO 20 KT S/SW FLOW ON THE OCEAN EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS
UP TO SCA LEVELS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON THE
OCEAN. WIND GUSTS AT TIMES COULD REACH 25 KT ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT
INTO WED MORN...BUT FREQUENCY WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT. FOR OTHER WATERS...GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 20 KT AT
TIMES. THE SCA SEAS COULD LINGER ACROSS EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
RESIDUAL 4-5 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THU-FRI. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH GALES POSSIBLE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE
ATLANTIC. IMPROVEMENT FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK AS THE STORM
PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVE.

MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS/NV
NEAR TERM...NV/DW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MPS/NV
HYDROLOGY...MPS/NV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 290017
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
817 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...AND
THEN OFFSHORE...FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. DUE TO THICKENING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 30 KFT...THIS MAY PUT A CHECK ON SOME OF
THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY
MOISTEN WITH A S/SW WIND AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LOWS WILL HOLD NEARLY
STEADY ACROSS THE NYC METRO...AND DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
IN THE OUTLYING SUBURBS.

UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN QUEBEC TONIGHT
WITH WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE NE US. RESULTANT
SURFACE LOW TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE UPPER LOW...WITH TAILING
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION TONIGHT.

WITH UPPER/MID LEVEL ENERGY AND THERMAL ADVECTION LAGGING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT.
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS REACHING AREAS FAR N&W OF NYC TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AS FRONT IMPINGES ON THE REGION.

POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN COASTAL
AREAS LATE TONIGHT WITH MOIST RETURN FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING. POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS CT VALLEYS AND COAST
IF CIRRUS REMAIN THIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO MOVE NE THROUGH THROUGH
NORTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SLOWLY CROSSING W TO E THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND PUSHING EAST WED
NIGHT.

MOST OF THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE POST FRONTAL IN WAKE
OF INITIAL COLD FRONT PASSAGE...AS SHORTWAVE/RIGHT REAR JET ENERGY
APPROACH AND AHEAD OF A SECONDARY FRONT WITH SHOT OF CAA. THIS
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE W TO E ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY MILD DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND WITH CAA LAGGING FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE WED NIGHT WITH ANY LAGGING
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN CT/LI COMING TO AN END IN THE
EVENING. CONTINUED CAA ON NW FLOW WILL BRING TEMPS CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMS LAT WED NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z MODELS DIVERGE IN TERMS OF TIMING...STRENGTH...AND PLACEMENT OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE RESULT
REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN TERMS OF PTYPE FOR THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. DRY CONDS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH THEN DIGS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
FRIDAY...AND STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SPIN UP A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. LIGHT PRECIP WILL DEVELOP
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIP THAT IMPACTS THE REGION AND THE PTYPE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR
EAST/WEST THAT LOW TRACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS IS
MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE...AND KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP OVER THE
ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE WEST THAN
IT WAS PREVIOUSLY. 12Z CMC IS FASTER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE COMPARED
TO BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS SUPPORT FROM SOME OF THE GFS
MEMBERS...BUT NOT ALL. THE ECMWF TRACK WOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH WARM
AIR TO SURGE ALONG THE COAST TO KEEP PRECIP RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS
ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN COLD AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND IT SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. WHAT ALSO REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS HOW FAR
WEST BANDING BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE ABLE TO SPREAD. AS A RESULT...
SATURDAY NIGHT SEEMS TO BE SHAPING UP AS A BIT MORE INTERESTING THAN
SATURDAY...BUT THAT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

WILL BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
EASTERN AREAS.

SOME PRECIP MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES RETURNS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
COULD BE LOWER DEPENDING ON DYNAMICAL COOLING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW. TEMPS THEN MODERATE GOING INTO THE NEW
WEEK...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT...AND ENTER THE AREA
LATE WEDS MORNING.

VFR FOR THE CITY TERMINALS...OTHERWISE MVFR VSBYS AND POSSIBLY CIGS
AS WELL LATE TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE CITY. CONFIDENCE IN MVFR
DEVELOPMENT IS MODERATE.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SW UNDER 10 KT THIS EVENING. SW WINDS AT
FL020 WILL INCREASE TO 40-45 KT LATE TONIGHT. SEE COMMENTS BELOW FOR
TIMING.

SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR ON WEDS...BUT SHRA POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTN.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SW WINDS AT FL020 OF 40-45KT FROM APPROX
04-07Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SW WINDS AT FL020 OF 40-45KT FROM APPROX
04-07Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SW WINDS AT FL020 OF 40-45KT FROM APPROX
03-06Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SW WINDS AT FL020 OF 40-45KT FROM APPROX
03-06Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SW WINDS AT FL020 OF 40-45KT FROM APPROX
04-07Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SW WINDS AT FL020 OF 40-45KT FROM APPROX
05-08Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.WED NIGHT-FRI...VFR.

.FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS LIKELY...MAINLY VIA RAIN
SHOWERS BUT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT KSWF DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING. NE-N WINDS G20-25KT.

.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS LIKELY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW. N WINDS G25-30KT.

.SUNDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING. NW WINDS
G25-30KT.

&&

.MARINE...
PERSISTENT 15 TO 20 KT S/SW FLOW ON THE OCEAN EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS
UP TO SCA LEVELS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON THE
OCEAN. WIND GUSTS AT TIMES COULD REACH 25 KT ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT
INTO WED MORN...BUT FREQUENCY WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT. FOR OTHER WATERS...GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 20 KT AT
TIMES. THE SCA SEAS COULD LINGER ACROSS EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
RESIDUAL 4-5 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THU-FRI. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH GALES POSSIBLE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE
ATLANTIC. IMPROVEMENT FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK AS THE STORM
PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVE.

MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS/NV
NEAR TERM...NV/DW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MPS/NV
HYDROLOGY...MPS/NV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 281951
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
351 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...AND
THEN OFFSHORE...FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A VEIL OF
CIRRUS CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION.

UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN QUEBEC TONIGHT
WITH WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE NE US. RESULTANT
SURFACE LOW TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE UPPER LOW...WITH TAILING
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION TONIGHT.

WITH UPPER/MID LEVEL ENERGY AND THERMAL ADVECTION LAGGING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT.
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS REACHING AREAS FAR N&W OF NYC TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AS FRONT IMPINGES ON THE REGION.

POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN COASTAL
AREAS LATE TONIGHT WITH MOIST RETURN FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING. POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS CT VALLEYS AND COAST
IF CIRRUS REMAIN THIN OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD TONIGHT WITH MILD SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. A
FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO MOVE NE THROUGH THROUGH
NORTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SLOWLY CROSSING W TO E THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND PUSHING EAST WED
NIGHT.

MOST OF THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE POST FRONTAL IN WAKE
OF INITIAL COLD FRONT PASSAGE...AS SHORTWAVE/RIGHT REAR JET ENERGY
APPROACH AND AHEAD OF A SECONDARY FRONT WITH SHOT OF CAA. THIS
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE W TO E ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY MILD DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND WITH CAA LAGGING FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE WED NIGHT WITH ANY LAGGING
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN CT/LI COMING TO AN END IN THE
EVENING. CONTINUED CAA ON NW FLOW WILL BRING TEMPS CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMS LAT WED NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z MODELS DIVERGE IN TERMS OF TIMING...STRENGTH...AND PLACEMENT OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE RESULT
REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN TERMS OF PTYPE FOR THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. DRY CONDS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH THEN DIGS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
FRIDAY...AND STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SPIN UP A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. LIGHT PRECIP WILL DEVELOP
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIP THAT IMPACTS THE REGION AND THE PTYPE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR
EAST/WEST THAT LOW TRACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS IS
MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE...AND KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP OVER THE
ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE WEST THAN
IT WAS PREVIOUSLY. 12Z CMC IS FASTER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE COMPARED
TO BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS SUPPORT FROM SOME OF THE GFS
MEMBERS...BUT NOT ALL. THE ECMWF TRACK WOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH WARM
AIR TO SURGE ALONG THE COAST TO KEEP PRECIP RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS
ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN COLD AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND IT SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. WHAT ALSO REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS HOW FAR
WEST BANDING BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE ABLE TO SPREAD. AS A RESULT...
SATURDAY NIGHT SEEMS TO BE SHAPING UP AS A BIT MORE INTERESTING THAN
SATURDAY...BUT THAT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

WILL BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
EASTERN AREAS.

SOME PRECIP MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES RETURNS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
COULD BE LOWER DEPENDING ON DYNAMICAL COOLING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW. TEMPS THEN MODERATE GOING INTO THE NEW
WEEK...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT...AND ENTER THE
AREA LATE WED MORNING.

BKN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT SOUTHERLY WINDS DOWN IN MOST PLACES EXCEPT
FOR KISP/KGON WHICH HAVE HAD A MORE PERSISTENT FETCH OFF THE OCEAN.
THESE S WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT...AND BACK WSW LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SW WINDS AT FL015 WILL INCREASE TO 40-45 KT LATE TONIGHT...SO LLWS
MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 02Z-08Z.

MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MOST OF WED MORNING VIA
MOIST S-SW FLOW. COASTAL SITES ESPECIALLY KJFK/KISP/KGON COULD SEE
BRIEF IFR CONDS EARLY WED MORNING. COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
KSWF AFTER MIDDAY AND ENTER THE NYC METRO AIRSPACE TOWARD THE END
OF THE TAF PD.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LLWS POSSIBLE 02Z-08Z TONIGHT. BRIEF IFR
CONDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY WED MORNING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LLWS POSSIBLE 02Z-08Z TONIGHT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LLWS POSSIBLE 02Z-08Z TONIGHT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LLWS POSSIBLE 02Z-08Z TONIGHT. BRIEF IFR
CONDS WITH BKN015 CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LLWS POSSIBLE 02Z-08Z TONIGHT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LLWS POSSIBLE 02Z-08Z TONIGHT. BRIEF IFR
CONDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY WED MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SUNDAY...

.WED AFTERNOON...COLD FROPA WITH WINDS SHIFTING W.
G15-20KT POSSIBLE. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH SCT SHOWERS.

.WED NIGHT-FRI...VFR.

.FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS LIKELY...MAINLY VIA RAIN
SHOWERS BUT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT KSWF DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING. NE-N WINDS G20-25KT.

.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS LIKELY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW. N WINDS G25-30KT.

.SUNDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING. NW WINDS G25-30KT.

&&

.MARINE...
PERSISTENT 15 TO 20 KT S/SW FLOW ON THE OCEAN EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS
UP TO SCA LEVELS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON THE
OCEAN. WIND GUSTS AT TIMES COULD REACH 25 KT ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT
INTO WED MORN...BUT FREQUENCY WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT. FOR OTHER WATERS...GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 20 KT AT
TIMES. THE SCA SEAS COULD LINGER ACROSS EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
RESIDUAL 4-5 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THU-FRI. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH GALES POSSIBLE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE
ATLANTIC. IMPROVEMENT FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK AS THE STORM
PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVE.

MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MPS/NV
HYDROLOGY...MPS/NV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 281807
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
207 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE TODAY GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE EXITING TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE. THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY...WITH SUNSHINE FILTERED BY CIRRUS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM.

AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RIDGING LENDING TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAX TEMP FORECAST RANGES
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 COAST...TO LOWER 70S TO 75 METRO
NYC/NJ AND INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVE
NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH TONIGHT AND MOVES
ACROSS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TONIGHT...BUT STRATUS IS INDICATED TO BE MORE LIKELY THAN FOG.
THE COVERAGE IS SCATTERED TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. ABOVE NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED WITH A
BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS USED FOR THE FORECAST...RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60.

THE JET STREAM MOVES INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION TOWARDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE EXITS NORTHEAST
INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTH IN
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND SLIGHTLY DEEPENS MORE. THE COLD FRONT MOVES
FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.

RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVE IN WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
COULD BE ENTERING THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AS EARLY AS LATE
TONIGHT. HIGHEST CHANCES ARE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
PROGRESSING FROM WEST TO EAST.

HIGHER TEMPS ACROSS COASTS WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DELAYED
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS WERE FROM THE ECS MOS
GUIDANCE AND YIELD A RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 00Z MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON THE FRONTAL TIMING WED NIGHT.
ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR EXTREME ERN LI AND CT SHOULD BE DRY THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. CHANCES ACROSS THESE ERN AREAS END QUICKLY. H85
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 0C AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH FRI. COMBINED
WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...FAIR AND SEASONAL THU THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRI.

THE PATTERN SEEMS TO BE LOCKED IN FOR A BIT OF WINTER FRI NIGHT
INTO SUN. THIS DOES NOT MEAN HOWEVER THERE IS NOT A HIGH AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE FCST. FOR
NOW...SOME LGT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN WITH THE ARCTIC AIR STILL
UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR INLAND TO
RESULT IN A RASN MIX OR PERIOD OF SNOW LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. AGAIN THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LGT AT THIS TIME.

LOW PRES THEN TAKES SHAPE OFF THE COAST SAT. THE ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL PLACEMENT. THE GFS
DEVELOPS THE SFC LOW SUFFICIENTLY FAR ENOUGH NE OF THE AREA TO
RESULT IN ONLY NW FLOW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. THIS TOO HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT HOWEVER. THE BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUPPORT THE GFS...BUT NOT ALL. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FCST IS
A 40 POP SAT AND A 30-40 POP SAT NIGHT TAPERING OFF SUN.

CIPS ANALOG BASED OFF THE GFS INDICATES LOW IMPACT WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS RELEGATED TO N AND W OF THE CWA...MAINLY IN THE SNOW
BELT. IF THE 00Z ECMWF VERIFIES HOWEVER...ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE COAST.

DRY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT...AND ENTER THE
AREA LATE WED MORNING.

BKN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT WINDS DOWN IN MOST PLACES...BUT THINK
THEY WILL REBOUND TO AT OR JUST UNDER 10 KT FOR A SHORT PD LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY SCATTER OUT. LIGHT S WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD
BACK WSW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.

SW WINDS AT FL015 WILL INCREASE TO 40-45 KT LATE TONIGHT...SO
LLWS LAY BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 02Z-08Z.

MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MOST OF WED MORNING VIA
MOIST S-SW FLOW. COASTAL SITES ESPECIALLY KJFK/KISP/KGON COULD SEE
BRIEF IFR CONDS EARLY WED MORNING. COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
KSWF AFTER MIDDAY AND ENTER THE NYC METRO AIRSPACE TOWARD THE END
OF THE TAF PD.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LLWS POSSIBLE 02Z-08Z TONIGHT. BRIEF IFR
CONDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY WED MORNING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LLWS POSSIBLE 02Z-08Z TONIGHT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE DIRECTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IF IT DOES NOT OCCUR WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
BE CLOSER TO 180-190 TRUE. LLWS POSSIBLE 02Z-08Z TONIGHT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE DIRECTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IF IT DOES NOT OCCUR WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
BE CLOSER TO 180-190 TRUE. LLWS POSSIBLE 02Z-08Z TONIGHT.
BRIEF IMC CONDS WITH BKN015 CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LLWS POSSIBLE 02Z-08Z TONIGHT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LLWS POSSIBLE 02Z-08Z TONIGHT. BRIEF IFR
CONDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY WED MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SUNDAY...

.WED AFTERNOON...COLD FROPA WITH WINDS SHIFTING W.
G15-20KT POSSIBLE. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH SCT SHOWERS.

.WED NIGHT-FRI...VFR.

.FRI NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS LIKELY IN RAIN OR SNOW AT
KSWF/POSSIBLY KHPN...RAIN ELSEWHERE. N-NE WIND G15-20KT
POSSIBLE LATE.

.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS LIKELY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW.
N-NE WIND G25-35KT POSSIBLE.

.SUNDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING. N-NW WINDS
G25-30KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL S/SW GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE LIKELY ON ALL WATERS THIS
AFT/EVE.

SCA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON THE OCEAN. THIS WILL BE
MOSTLY FOR SEAS WITH 5-6 FT SEAS. WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY HANDLING
WAVE HEIGHTS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND COMPARED TO BUOY OBS PRETTY WELL
OVERALL. WIND GUSTS AT TIMES COULD REACH 25 KT ON THE OCEAN...BUT
FREQUENCY WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT.
FOR OTHER WATERS...GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 20 KT AT TIMES. THE SCA
CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THU-FRI. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GALES POSSIBLE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE
ATLANTIC. IMPROVEMENT MON AND TUE AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH IS FORECAST WITH THE SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM










000
FXUS61 KOKX 281459
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1059 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE TODAY GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OVER
THE WEEKEND...BEFORE EXITING TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE. THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY...WITH SUNSHINE FILTERED BY CIRRUS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RIDGING WILL LEAD TO WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. USED A BLEND OF MAV/ECS AND ADDED
1-2 DEGREES BASED ON UPSTREAM BIASES THE PREVIOUS DAY IN HANDLING
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAX TEMP FORECAST RANGES FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVE
NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH TONIGHT AND MOVES
ACROSS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TONIGHT...BUT STRATUS IS INDICATED TO BE MORE LIKELY THAN FOG.
THE COVERAGE IS SCATTERED TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. ABOVE NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED WITH A
BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS USED FOR THE FORECAST...RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60.

THE JET STREAM MOVES INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION TOWARDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE EXITS NORTHEAST
INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTH IN
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND SLIGHTLY DEEPENS MORE. THE COLD FRONT MOVES
FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.

RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVE IN WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
COULD BE ENTERING THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AS EARLY AS LATE
TONIGHT. HIGHEST CHANCES ARE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
PROGRESSING FROM WEST TO EAST.

HIGHER TEMPS ACROSS COASTS WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DELAYED
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS WERE FROM THE ECS MOS
GUIDANCE AND YIELD A RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 00Z MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON THE FRONTAL TIMING WED NIGHT.
ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR EXTREME ERN LI AND CT SHOULD BE DRY THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. CHANCES ACROSS THESE ERN AREAS END QUICKLY. H85
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 0C AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH FRI. COMBINED
WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...FAIR AND SEASONAL THU THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRI.

THE PATTERN SEEMS TO BE LOCKED IN FOR A BIT OF WINTER FRI NIGHT
INTO SUN. THIS DOES NOT MEAN HOWEVER THERE IS NOT A HIGH AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE FCST. FOR
NOW...SOME LGT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN WITH THE ARCTIC AIR STILL
UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR INLAND TO
RESULT IN A RASN MIX OR PERIOD OF SNOW LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. AGAIN THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LGT AT THIS TIME.

LOW PRES THEN TAKES SHAPE OFF THE COAST SAT. THE ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL PLACEMENT. THE GFS
DEVELOPS THE SFC LOW SUFFICIENTLY FAR ENOUGH NE OF THE AREA TO
RESULT IN ONLY NW FLOW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. THIS TOO HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT HOWEVER. THE BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUPPORT THE GFS...BUT NOT ALL. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FCST IS
A 40 POP SAT AND A 30-40 POP SAT NIGHT TAPERING OFF SUN.

CIPS ANALOG BASED OFF THE GFS INDICATES LOW IMPACT WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS RELEGATED TO N AND W OF THE CWA...MAINLY IN THE SNOW
BELT. IF THE 00Z ECMWF VERIFIES HOWEVER...ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE COAST.

DRY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST. A COLD
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.

SW FLOW AROUND OR JUST UNDER 10 KT LATE THIS MORNING SHOULD BACK
MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON. SE-S SEA BREEZE EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AT KEWR/KTEB. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR WIND SPEEDS AT
OR JUST OVER 12 KT AT KJFK. GUSTS JUST OVER 15 KT EXPECTED AT
KISP MAINLY THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT COULD OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
KJFK MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL GUST JUST OVER 15 KT AS WELL.

LIGHT SSW WINDS TONIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS JUST OVER 15 KT POSSIBLE INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE DIRECTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT DOES NOT OCCUR WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BE
CLOSER TO 180-190 TRUE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE DIRECTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT DOES NOT OCCUR WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BE
CLOSER TO 180-190 TRUE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.WED...COLD FROPA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY WINDS SHIFTING
W...G15-20 KT POSSIBLE. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH
SCT SHOWERS.

.WED NIGHT...VFR. WINDS VEERING NW...G15-20 KT POSSIBLE.

.THU-FRI...VFR.

.FRI NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN SCT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS AT KSWF/POSSIBLY KHPN...AND SCT RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
N-NE WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE LATE.

.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW.
N-NE WIND G25-35KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL S/SW GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE LIKELY ON ALL WATERS.

SCA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON THE OCEAN. THIS WILL BE
MOSTLY FOR SEAS WITH 5-6 FT SEAS. WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY HANDLING
WAVE HEIGHTS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND COMPARED TO BUOY OBS PRETTY WELL
OVERALL. WIND GUSTS AT TIMES COULD REACH 25 KT ON THE OCEAN...BUT
FREQUENCY WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT.
FOR OTHER WATERS...GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 20 KT AT TIMES. THE SCA
CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THU-FRI. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GALES POSSIBLE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE
ATLANTIC. IMPROVEMENT MON AND TUE AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH IS FORECAST WITH THE SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 281408
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1008 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE TODAY GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OVER
THE WEEKEND...BEFORE EXITING TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE. THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY...WITH SUNSHINE FILTERED BY CIRRUS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RIDGING WILL LEAD TO WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. USED A BLEND OF MAV/ECS AND ADDED
1-2 DEGREES BASED ON UPSTREAM BIASES THE PREVIOUS DAY IN HANDLING
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAX TEMP FORECAST RANGES FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVE
NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH TONIGHT AND MOVES
ACROSS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TONIGHT...BUT STRATUS IS INDICATED TO BE MORE LIKELY THAN FOG.
THE COVERAGE IS SCATTERED TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. ABOVE NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED WITH A
BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS USED FOR THE FORECAST...RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60.

THE JET STREAM MOVES INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION TOWARDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE EXITS NORTHEAST
INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTH IN
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND SLIGHTLY DEEPENS MORE. THE COLD FRONT MOVES
FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.

RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVE IN WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
COULD BE ENTERING THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AS EARLY AS LATE
TONIGHT. HIGHEST CHANCES ARE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
PROGRESSING FROM WEST TO EAST.

HIGHER TEMPS ACROSS COASTS WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DELAYED
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS WERE FROM THE ECS MOS
GUIDANCE AND YIELD A RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 00Z MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON THE FRONTAL TIMING WED NIGHT.
ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR EXTREME ERN LI AND CT SHOULD BE DRY THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. CHANCES ACROSS THESE ERN AREAS END QUICKLY. H85
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 0C AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH FRI. COMBINED
WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...FAIR AND SEASONAL THU THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRI.

THE PATTERN SEEMS TO BE LOCKED IN FOR A BIT OF WINTER FRI NIGHT
INTO SUN. THIS DOES NOT MEAN HOWEVER THERE IS NOT A HIGH AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE FCST. FOR
NOW...SOME LGT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN WITH THE ARCTIC AIR STILL
UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR INLAND TO
RESULT IN A RASN MIX OR PERIOD OF SNOW LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. AGAIN THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LGT AT THIS TIME.

LOW PRES THEN TAKES SHAPE OFF THE COAST SAT. THE ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL PLACEMENT. THE GFS
DEVELOPS THE SFC LOW SUFFICIENTLY FAR ENOUGH NE OF THE AREA TO
RESULT IN ONLY NW FLOW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. THIS TOO HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT HOWEVER. THE BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUPPORT THE GFS...BUT NOT ALL. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FCST IS
A 40 POP SAT AND A 30-40 POP SAT NIGHT TAPERING OFF SUN.

CIPS ANALOG BASED OFF THE GFS INDICATES LOW IMPACT WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS RELEGATED TO N AND W OF THE CWA...MAINLY IN THE SNOW
BELT. IF THE 00Z ECMWF VERIFIES HOWEVER...ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE COAST.

DRY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SEABREEZE LIKELY AT ALL BUT KSWF - STARTING ALONG LONG ISLAND
SOUND BY LATE MORNING/AROUND MIDDAY THEN MID- LATE AFTERNOON FOR
LONG ISLAND/CITY TERMINALS. LOW CHANCE THAT SEABREEZE BRINGS WIND
SPEEDS ABOVE 10KT AT KJFK/KLGA. ALSO LOW CHANCE OF GUSTS TO AROUND
15KT WITH THE SEABREEZE AT KJFK. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AGAIN THIS EVENING EXCEPT AT KLGA AND KJFK WHERE RETURN TO SSW AT
UNDER 10 KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3
HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE DIRECTION...COULD BE OFF
+/- 20-30 DEGREES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3
HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE DIRECTION...COULD BE OFF
+/- 20-30 DEGREES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3
HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER SHRA. G15-20 KT POSSIBLE. WSW WINDS SHIFT
TO NW WED NIGHT.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SCT -SHRA/ -SHRA/-SHSN
FAR W/N TERMINALS. N-NE WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE -RA/-SN. N-NE WIND
G25-35KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL S/SW GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE LIKELY ON ALL WATERS.

SCA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON THE OCEAN. THIS WILL BE
MOSTLY FOR SEAS WITH 5-6 FT SEAS. WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY HANDLING
WAVE HEIGHTS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND COMPARED TO BUOY OBS PRETTY WELL
OVERALL. WIND GUSTS AT TIMES COULD REACH 25 KT ON THE OCEAN...BUT
FREQUENCY WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT.
FOR OTHER WATERS...GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 20 KT AT TIMES. THE SCA
CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THU-FRI. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GALES POSSIBLE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE
ATLANTIC. IMPROVEMENT MON AND TUE AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH IS FORECAST WITH THE SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 281119
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
719 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE TODAY GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OVER
THE WEEKEND...BEFORE EXITING TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FORECAST DATABASE...MAINLY FOR
TEMPERATURES...TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. FORECAST OVERALL
REMAINS ON TRACK.

MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. RIDGING
ALOFT TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSIDENCE AND BY THIS AFTERNOON A
TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
PARENT LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO THAT WILL HAVE AN ATTACHED COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA.

THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RIDGING WILL LEAD TO WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. USED A BLEND OF MAV/ECS AND ADDED
1-2 DEGREES BASED ON UPSTREAM BIASES THE PREVIOUS DAY IN HANDLING
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAX TEMP FORECAST RANGES FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVE
NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH TONIGHT AND MOVES
ACROSS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TONIGHT...BUT STRATUS IS INDICATED TO BE MORE LIKELY THAN FOG.
THE COVERAGE IS SCATTERED TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. ABOVE NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED WITH A
BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS USED FOR THE FORECAST...RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60.

THE JET STREAM MOVES INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION TOWARDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE EXITS NORTHEAST
INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTH IN
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND SLIGHTLY DEEPENS MORE. THE COLD FRONT MOVES
FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.

RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVE IN WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
COULD BE ENTERING THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AS EARLY AS LATE
TONIGHT. HIGHEST CHANCES ARE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
PROGRESSING FROM WEST TO EAST.

HIGHER TEMPS ACROSS COASTS WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DELAYED
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS WERE FROM THE ECS MOS
GUIDANCE AND YIELD A RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 00Z MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON THE FRONTAL TIMING WED NIGHT.
ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR EXTREME ERN LI AND CT SHOULD BE DRY THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. CHANCES ACROSS THESE ERN AREAS END QUICKLY. H85
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 0C AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH FRI. COMBINED
WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...FAIR AND SEASONAL THU THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRI.

THE PATTERN SEEMS TO BE LOCKED IN FOR A BIT OF WINTER FRI NIGHT
INTO SUN. THIS DOES NOT MEAN HOWEVER THERE IS NOT A HIGH AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE FCST. FOR
NOW...SOME LGT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN WITH THE ARCTIC AIR STILL
UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR INLAND TO
RESULT IN A RASN MIX OR PERIOD OF SNOW LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. AGAIN THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LGT AT THIS TIME.

LOW PRES THEN TAKES SHAPE OFF THE COAST SAT. THE ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL PLACEMENT. THE GFS
DEVELOPS THE SFC LOW SUFFICIENTLY FAR ENOUGH NE OF THE AREA TO
RESULT IN ONLY NW FLOW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. THIS TOO HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT HOWEVER. THE BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUPPORT THE GFS...BUT NOT ALL. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FCST IS
A 40 POP SAT AND A 30-40 POP SAT NIGHT TAPERING OFF SUN.

CIPS ANALOG BASED OFF THE GFS INDICATES LOW IMPACT WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS RELEGATED TO N AND W OF THE CWA...MAINLY IN THE SNOW
BELT. IF THE 00Z ECMWF VERIFIES HOWEVER...ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE COAST.

DRY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SSW-SW AT 10KT OR LESS BY MID
MORNING. SEABREEZE LIKELY AT ALL BUT KSWF - STARTING ALONG LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY LATE MORNING/AROUND MIDDAY THEN MID-LATE
AFTERNOON FOR LONG ISLAND/CITY TERMINALS. LOW CHANCE THAT
SEABREEZE BRINGS WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 10KT AT KJFK/KLGA. ALSO LOW
CHANCE OF GUSTS TO AROUND 15KT WITH THE SEABREEZE AT KJFK. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING EXCEPT AT KLGA AND
KJFK WHERE RETURN TO SSW AT UNDER 10 KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET/OFFSET OF SEABREEZE COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AND ONSET/OFFSET OF SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AND ONSET/OFFSET OF SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE DIRECTION...COULD BE OFF +/-
20-30 DEGREES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AND ONSET/OFFSET OF SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE DIRECTION...COULD BE OFF +/-
20-30 DEGREES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AND ONSET/OFFSET OF SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AND ONSET/OFFSET OF SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER SHRA. G15-20 KT POSSIBLE. WSW WINDS SHIFT
TO NW WED NIGHT.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SCT -SHRA/ -SHRA/-SHSN
FAR W/N TERMINALS. N-NE WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE -RA/-SN. N-NE WIND
G25-35KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THEN SCA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON THE OCEAN. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY FOR
SEAS WITH 5-6 FT SEAS. WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY HANDLING WAVE HEIGHTS
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND COMPARED TO BUOY OBS PRETTY WELL OVERALL. WIND
GUSTS AT TIMES COULD REACH 25 KT ON THE OCEAN...BUT FREQUENCY WILL
BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. FOR OTHER
WATERS...GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 20 KT AT TIMES. THE SCA
CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THU-FRI. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH GALES POSSIBLE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC.
IMPROVEMENT MON AND TUE AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH IS FORECAST WITH THE SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/JMC
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JM/JMC
HYDROLOGY...JM/JMC






000
FXUS61 KOKX 280908
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
508 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE TODAY GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OVER
THE WEEKEND...BEFORE EXITING TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. RIDGING
ALOFT TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSIDENCE AND BY THIS AFTERNOON A
TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
PARENT LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO THAT WILL HAVE AN ATTACHED COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA.

THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RIDGING WILL LEAD TO WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. USED A BLEND OF MAV/ECS AND ADDED
1-2 DEGREES BASED ON UPSTREAM BIASES THE PREVIOUS DAY IN HANDLING
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAX TEMP FORECAST RANGES FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVE
NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH TONIGHT AND MOVES
ACROSS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TONIGHT...BUT STRATUS IS INDICATED TO BE MORE LIKELY THAN FOG.
THE COVERAGE IS SCATTERED TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. ABOVE NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED WITH A
BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS USED FOR THE FORECAST...RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60.

THE JET STREAM MOVES INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION TOWARDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE EXITS NORTHEAST
INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTH IN
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND SLIGHTLY DEEPENS MORE. THE COLD FRONT MOVES
FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.

RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVE IN WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
COULD BE ENTERING THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AS EARLY AS LATE
TONIGHT. HIGHEST CHANCES ARE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
PROGRESSING FROM WEST TO EAST.

HIGHER TEMPS ACROSS COASTS WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DELAYED
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS WERE FROM THE ECS MOS
GUIDANCE AND YIELD A RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 00Z MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON THE FRONTAL TIMING WED NIGHT.
ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR EXTREME ERN LI AND CT SHOULD BE DRY THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. CHANCES ACROSS THESE ERN AREAS END QUICKLY. H85
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 0C AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH FRI. COMBINED
WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...FAIR AND SEASONAL THU THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRI.

THE PATTERN SEEMS TO BE LOCKED IN FOR A BIT OF WINTER FRI NIGHT
INTO SUN. THIS DOES NOT MEAN HOWEVER THERE IS NOT A HIGH AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE FCST. FOR
NOW...SOME LGT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN WITH THE ARCTIC AIR STILL
UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR INLAND TO
RESULT IN A RASN MIX OR PERIOD OF SNOW LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. AGAIN THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LGT AT THIS TIME.

LOW PRES THEN TAKES SHAPE OFF THE COAST SAT. THE ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL PLACEMENT. THE GFS
DEVELOPS THE SFC LOW SUFFICIENTLY FAR ENOUGH NE OF THE AREA TO
RESULT IN ONLY NW FLOW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. THIS TOO HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT HOWEVER. THE BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUPPORT THE GFS...BUT NOT ALL. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FCST IS
A 40 POP SAT AND A 30-40 POP SAT NIGHT TAPERING OFF SUN.

CIPS ANALOG BASED OFF THE GFS INDICATES LOW IMPACT WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS RELEGATED TO N AND W OF THE CWA...MAINLY IN THE SNOW
BELT. IF THE 00Z ECMWF VERIFIES HOWEVER...ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE COAST.

DRY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST INTO TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SSW-SW AT 10KT OR LESS BY MID
MORNING. SEABREEZE LIKELY AT ALL BUT KSWF - STARTING ALONG LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY LATE MORNING/AROUND MIDDAY THEN MID-LATE
AFTERNOON FOR LONG ISLAND/CITY TERMINALS. LOW CHANCE THAT
SEABREEZE BRINGS WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 10KT AT KJFK/KLGA. ALSO LOW
CHANCE OF GUSTS TO AROUND 15KT WITH THE SEABREEZE AT KJFK. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING EXCEPT AT KLGA AND
KJFK WHERE RETURN TO SSW AT UNDER 10 KT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AND ONSET/OFFSET OF SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AND ONSET/OFFSET OF SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AND ONSET/OFFSET OF SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AND ONSET/OFFSET OF SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AND ONSET/OFFSET OF SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AND ONSET/OFFSET OF SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
.LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LLWS POSSIBLE LONG ISLAND TERMINALS.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER SHRA. G15-20 KT POSSIBLE. WSW WINDS SHIFT
TO NW WED NIGHT.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SCT -SHRA/ -SHRA/-SHSN
FAR W/N TERMINALS. N-NE WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE -RA/-SN. N-NE WIND
G25-35KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THEN SCA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON THE OCEAN. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY FOR
SEAS WITH 5-6 FT SEAS. WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY HANDLING WAVE HEIGHTS
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND COMPARED TO BUOY OBS PRETTY WELL OVERALL. WIND
GUSTS AT TIMES COULD REACH 25 KT ON THE OCEAN...BUT FREQUENCY WILL
BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. FOR OTHER
WATERS...GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 20 KT AT TIMES. THE SCA
CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THU-FRI. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH GALES POSSIBLE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC.
IMPROVEMENT MON AND TUE AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH IS FORECAST WITH THE SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 280813 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
407 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE TODAY GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE EXITING TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. RIDGING ALOFT
TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSIDENCE AND BY THIS AFTERNOON A TROUGH WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
PARENT LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO THAT WILL HAVE AN ATTACHED COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA.

THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RIDGING WILL LEAD TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. USED A BLEND OF MAV/ECS AND ADDED 1-2
DEGREES BASED ON UPSTREAM BIASES THE PREVIOUS DAY IN HANDLING
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAX TEMP FORECAST RANGES FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVE
NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH TONIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT...BUT
STRATUS IS INDICATED TO BE MORE LIKELY THAN FOG. THE COVERAGE IS
SCATTERED TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INCREASING THROUGH THE
DAY. ABOVE NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS USED
FOR THE FORECAST...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60.

THE JET STREAM MOVES INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION TOWARDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE EXITS NORTHEAST INTO
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTH IN SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND SLIGHTLY DEEPENS MORE. THE COLD FRONT MOVES FARTHER EAST
OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.

RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVE IN WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
COULD BE ENTERING THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AS EARLY AS LATE
TONIGHT. HIGHEST CHANCES ARE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...PROGRESSING
FROM WEST TO EAST.

HIGHER TEMPS ACROSS COASTS WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS WERE FROM THE ECS MOS
GUIDANCE AND YIELD A RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 00Z MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON THE FRONTAL TIMING WED NGT. ALL
AREAS EXCEPT FOR EXTREME ERN LI AND CT SHOULD BE DRY THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. CHCS ACROSS THESE ERN AREAS END QUICKLY. H85 TEMPS FALL TO
AROUND 0C AND REMAIN THERE THRU FRI. COMBINED WITH DRY AIR IN THE
MID LVLS...FAIR AND SEASONAL THU THRU THE DAY ON FRI.

THE PATTERN SEEMS TO BE LOCKED IN FOR A BIT OF WINTER FRI NGT INTO
SUN. THIS DOES NOT MEAN HOWEVER THERE ISNT A HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WRT THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE FCST. FOR NOW...SOME LGT
PCPN POSSIBLE FRI NGT AS THE UPR LOW APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD BE
MAINLY RAIN WITH THE ARCTIC AIR STILL UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR INLAND TO RESULT IN A RASN MIX OR
PERIOD OF SNOW LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT MRNG. AGAIN THIS PCPN APPEARS
TO BE LGT ATTM.

LOW PRES THEN TAKES SHAPE OFF THE COAST SAT. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT
WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL PLACEMENT. THE GFS DEVELOPS THE
SFC LOW SUFFICIENTLY FAR ENOUGH NE OF THE AREA TO RESULT IN ONLY NW
FLOW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHWRS. THIS TOO HAS BEEN CONSISTENT HOWEVER.
THE BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE GFS...BUT NOT ALL.
AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FCST IS A 40 POP SAT AND A 30-40 POP SAT
NGT TAPERING OFF SUN.

CIPS ANALOG BASED OFF THE GFS INDICATES LOW IMPACT WITH SNOW ACCUMS
RELEGATED TO N AND W OF THE CWA...MAINLY IN THE SNOW BELT. IF THE
00Z ECMWF VERIFIES HOWEVER...ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE COAST.

DRY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH UPR RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST INTO TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SSW-SW AT 10KT OR LESS BY MID
MORNING. SEABREEZE LIKELY AT ALL BUT KSWF - STARTING ALONG LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY LATE MORNING/AROUND MIDDAY THEN MID-LATE
AFTERNOON FOR LONG ISLAND/CITY TERMINALS. LOW CHANCE THAT
SEABREEZE BRINGS WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 10KT AT KJFK/KLGA - ALSO LOW
CHANCE OF GUSTS TO AROUND 15KT WITH THE SEABREEZE AT KJFK. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING EXCEPT AT KLGA AND
KJFK WHERE RETURN TO SSW AT UNDER 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
.LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LLWS POSSIBLE LONG ISLAND TERMINALS.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER SHRA. G15-20 KT POSSIBLE. WSW WINDS SHIFT
TO NW WED NIGHT.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SCT -SHRA/-SHSN. N WIND
G15-20KT POSSIBLE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE -RA/-SN. NW WIND
G25-30KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THEN SCA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON THE OCEAN. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY FOR
SEAS WITH 5-6 FT SEAS. WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY HANDLING WAVE HEIGHTS
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND COMPARED TO BUOY OBS PRETTY WELL OVERALL. WIND
GUSTS AT TIMES COULD REACH 25 KT ON THE OCEAN...BUT FREQUENCY WILL
BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. FOR OTHER
WATERS...GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 20 KT AT TIMES. THE SCA
CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THU-FRI. COND DETERIORATE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH GALES POSSIBLE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLC.
IMPROVEMENT MON AND TUE AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH IS FORECAST WITH THE SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MEASURABLE PCPN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM










000
FXUS61 KOKX 280800
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
400 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE TODAY GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE
EXITING TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. RIDGING ALOFT
TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSIDENCE AND BY THIS AFTERNOON A TROUGH WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
PARENT LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO THAT WILL HAVE AN ATTACHED COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA.

THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RIDGING WILL LEAD TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. USED A BLEND OF MAV/ECS AND ADDED 1-2
DEGREES BASED ON UPSTREAM BIASES THE PREVIOUS DAY IN HANDLING
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAX TEMP FORECAST RANGES FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVE
NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH TONIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS
WEDNESDAY.

BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT...BUT
STRATUS IS INDICATED TO BE MORE LIKELY THAN FOG. THE COVERAGE IS
SCATTERED TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THE JET STREAM MOVES INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION TOWARDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE EXITS NORTHEAST INTO
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTH IN SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND SLIGHTLY DEEPENS MORE. THE COLD FRONT MOVES FARTHER EAST
OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.

RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVE IN WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
COULD BE ENTERING THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...PROGRESSING FROM WEST TO
EAST.

HIGHER TEMPS ACROSS COASTS WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WERE FROM THE ECS MOS GUIDANCE AND YIELD
A RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 00Z MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON THE FRONTAL TIMING WED NGT. ALL
AREAS EXCEPT FOR EXTREME ERN LI AND CT SHOULD BE DRY THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. CHCS ACROSS THESE ERN AREAS END QUICKLY. H85 TEMPS FALL TO
AROUND 0C AND REMAIN THERE THRU FRI. COMBINED WITH DRY AIR IN THE
MID LVLS...FAIR AND SEASONAL THU THRU THE DAY ON FRI.

THE PATTERN SEEMS TO BE LOCKED IN FOR A BIT OF WINTER FRI NGT INTO
SUN. THIS DOES NOT MEAN HOWEVER THERE ISNT A HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WRT THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE FCST. FOR NOW...SOME LGT
PCPN POSSIBLE FRI NGT AS THE UPR LOW APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD BE
MAINLY RAIN WITH THE ARCTIC AIR STILL UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR INLAND TO RESULT IN A RASN MIX OR
PERIOD OF SNOW LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT MRNG. AGAIN THIS PCPN APPEARS
TO BE LGT ATTM.

LOW PRES THEN TAKES SHAPE OFF THE COAST SAT. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT
WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL PLACEMENT. THE GFS DEVELOPS THE
SFC LOW SUFFICIENTLY FAR ENOUGH NE OF THE AREA TO RESULT IN ONLY NW
FLOW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHWRS. THIS TOO HAS BEEN CONSISTENT HOWEVER.
THE BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE GFS...BUT NOT ALL.
AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FCST IS A 40 POP SAT AND A 30-40 POP SAT
NGT TAPERING OFF SUN.

CIPS ANALOG BASED OFF THE GFS INDICATES LOW IMPACT WITH SNOW ACCUMS
RELEGATED TO N AND W OF THE CWA...MAINLY IN THE SNOW BELT. IF THE
00Z ECMWF VERIFIES HOWEVER...ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE COAST.

DRY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH UPR RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST INTO TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SSW-SW AT 10KT OR LESS BY MID
MORNING. SEABREEZE LIKELY AT ALL BUT KSWF - STARTING ALONG LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY LATE MORNING/AROUND MIDDAY THEN MID-LATE
AFTERNOON FOR LONG ISLAND/CITY TERMINALS. LOW CHANCE THAT
SEABREEZE BRINGS WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 10KT AT KJFK/KLGA - ALSO LOW
CHANCE OF GUSTS TO AROUND 15KT WITH THE SEABREEZE AT KJFK. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING EXCEPT AT KLGA AND
KJFK WHERE RETURN TO SSW AT UNDER 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
.LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LLWS POSSIBLE LONG ISLAND TERMINALS.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER SHRA. G15-20 KT POSSIBLE. WSW WINDS SHIFT
TO NW WED NIGHT.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SCT -SHRA/-SHSN. N WIND
G15-20KT POSSIBLE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE -RA/-SN. NW WIND
G25-30KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THEN SCA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON THE OCEAN. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY FOR
SEAS WITH 5-6 FT SEAS. WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY HANDLING WAVE HEIGHTS
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND COMPARED TO BUOY OBS PRETTY WELL OVERALL. WIND
GUSTS AT TIMES COULD REACH 25 KT ON THE OCEAN...BUT FREQUENCY WILL
BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THU-FRI. COND DETERIORATE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH GALES POSSIBLE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLC.
IMPROVEMENT MON AND TUE AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MEASURABLE PCPN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 280800
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
400 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE TODAY GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE
EXITING TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. RIDGING ALOFT
TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSIDENCE AND BY THIS AFTERNOON A TROUGH WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
PARENT LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO THAT WILL HAVE AN ATTACHED COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA.

THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RIDGING WILL LEAD TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. USED A BLEND OF MAV/ECS AND ADDED 1-2
DEGREES BASED ON UPSTREAM BIASES THE PREVIOUS DAY IN HANDLING
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAX TEMP FORECAST RANGES FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVE
NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH TONIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS
WEDNESDAY.

BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT...BUT
STRATUS IS INDICATED TO BE MORE LIKELY THAN FOG. THE COVERAGE IS
SCATTERED TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THE JET STREAM MOVES INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION TOWARDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE EXITS NORTHEAST INTO
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTH IN SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND SLIGHTLY DEEPENS MORE. THE COLD FRONT MOVES FARTHER EAST
OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.

RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVE IN WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
COULD BE ENTERING THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...PROGRESSING FROM WEST TO
EAST.

HIGHER TEMPS ACROSS COASTS WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WERE FROM THE ECS MOS GUIDANCE AND YIELD
A RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 00Z MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON THE FRONTAL TIMING WED NGT. ALL
AREAS EXCEPT FOR EXTREME ERN LI AND CT SHOULD BE DRY THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. CHCS ACROSS THESE ERN AREAS END QUICKLY. H85 TEMPS FALL TO
AROUND 0C AND REMAIN THERE THRU FRI. COMBINED WITH DRY AIR IN THE
MID LVLS...FAIR AND SEASONAL THU THRU THE DAY ON FRI.

THE PATTERN SEEMS TO BE LOCKED IN FOR A BIT OF WINTER FRI NGT INTO
SUN. THIS DOES NOT MEAN HOWEVER THERE ISNT A HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WRT THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE FCST. FOR NOW...SOME LGT
PCPN POSSIBLE FRI NGT AS THE UPR LOW APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD BE
MAINLY RAIN WITH THE ARCTIC AIR STILL UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR INLAND TO RESULT IN A RASN MIX OR
PERIOD OF SNOW LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT MRNG. AGAIN THIS PCPN APPEARS
TO BE LGT ATTM.

LOW PRES THEN TAKES SHAPE OFF THE COAST SAT. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT
WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL PLACEMENT. THE GFS DEVELOPS THE
SFC LOW SUFFICIENTLY FAR ENOUGH NE OF THE AREA TO RESULT IN ONLY NW
FLOW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHWRS. THIS TOO HAS BEEN CONSISTENT HOWEVER.
THE BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE GFS...BUT NOT ALL.
AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FCST IS A 40 POP SAT AND A 30-40 POP SAT
NGT TAPERING OFF SUN.

CIPS ANALOG BASED OFF THE GFS INDICATES LOW IMPACT WITH SNOW ACCUMS
RELEGATED TO N AND W OF THE CWA...MAINLY IN THE SNOW BELT. IF THE
00Z ECMWF VERIFIES HOWEVER...ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE COAST.

DRY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH UPR RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST INTO TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SSW-SW AT 10KT OR LESS BY MID
MORNING. SEABREEZE LIKELY AT ALL BUT KSWF - STARTING ALONG LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY LATE MORNING/AROUND MIDDAY THEN MID-LATE
AFTERNOON FOR LONG ISLAND/CITY TERMINALS. LOW CHANCE THAT
SEABREEZE BRINGS WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 10KT AT KJFK/KLGA - ALSO LOW
CHANCE OF GUSTS TO AROUND 15KT WITH THE SEABREEZE AT KJFK. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING EXCEPT AT KLGA AND
KJFK WHERE RETURN TO SSW AT UNDER 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
.LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LLWS POSSIBLE LONG ISLAND TERMINALS.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER SHRA. G15-20 KT POSSIBLE. WSW WINDS SHIFT
TO NW WED NIGHT.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SCT -SHRA/-SHSN. N WIND
G15-20KT POSSIBLE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE -RA/-SN. NW WIND
G25-30KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THEN SCA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON THE OCEAN. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY FOR
SEAS WITH 5-6 FT SEAS. WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY HANDLING WAVE HEIGHTS
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND COMPARED TO BUOY OBS PRETTY WELL OVERALL. WIND
GUSTS AT TIMES COULD REACH 25 KT ON THE OCEAN...BUT FREQUENCY WILL
BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THU-FRI. COND DETERIORATE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH GALES POSSIBLE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLC.
IMPROVEMENT MON AND TUE AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MEASURABLE PCPN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 280546
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
146 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERALL...SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO BETTER MATCH
OBSERVED TRENDS BUT FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK.

SFC RIDGE AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT W/SW
FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WELL AHEAD OF A PARENT
LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING INITIALLY FOR
THE OUTLYING SUBURBS WILL BE LESS OVERNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS STREAM
IN. WINDS MAY INCREASE ENOUGH PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THAT TEMPS WILL
SHOOT UP QUICKLY IN THOSE SPOTS THAT RADIATE WELL.

LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE PRIMARILY IN THE 40S...THE EXCEPTION BEING
NYC METRO IN THE LOWER 50S...AND AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST AND THE
PINE BARRENS REGION OF LI IN THE 30S...WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST IS
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST APPROACHES.

CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST
OF NYC...AS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE
SUNRISE.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOSED LOW PRES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH
AND INTO NORTHERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL DRAG A SFC
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS SEEM TO
BREAK AN UPPER TROUGH OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW...AND THE SFC FRONT
LOSES ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF. MOST OF THE SHOWERS COULD TAPER OFF BEFORE THEY
MAKE IT TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. SHARP CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
THEN ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CARVE AN
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SFC LOW PRES WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NY...AND THEN SFC LOW PRESSURE FORMS AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE ARE MANY
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE LONG RANGE MODELS IN TERMS OF PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF THESE LOWS...BUT WOULD EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. THE ONE THING THAT THE MODELS
HAVE IN COMMON IS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE
REGION WITH TEMPS FALLING ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR AT
LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND THEN TEMPS WILL AVERAGE
10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS WILL BRING ABOUT P-TYPE ISSUES FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ALL SNOW CONFINED TO INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SW
CT....AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW INTO NYC AND SOUTHERN CT. WILL KEEP
PRECIP ALL RAIN FOR LONG ISLAND. THE QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
IS HOW FAR WEST TO SPREAD THE PRECIP. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES. OBVIOUSLY...THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE SEVERAL TIMES BASED ON
THE NEWEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS ALSO WAY TOO SOON TO DETERMINE HOW
MUCH SNOW...IF ANY...WILL ACCUMULATE.

TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70...ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WILL DROP BACK TO
NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 40S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD MODERATE
SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST INTO TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SSW-SW AT 10KT OR LESS BY MID
MORNING. SEABREEZE LIKELY AT ALL BUT KSWF - STARTING ALONG LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY LATE MORNING/AROUND MIDDAY THEN MID-LATE
AFTERNOON FOR LONG ISLAND/CITY TERMINALS. LOW CHANCE THAT
SEABREEZE BRINGS WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 10KT AT KJFK/KLGA - ALSO LOW
CHANCE OF GUSTS TO AROUND 15KT WITH THE SEABREEZE AT KJFK. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING EXCEPT AT KLGA AND
KJFK WHERE RETURN TO SSW AT UNDER 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
.LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LLWS POSSIBLE LONG ISLAND TERMINALS.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER SHRA. G15-20 KT POSSIBLE. WSW WINDS SHIFT
TO NW WED NIGHT.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SCT -SHRA/-SHSN. N WIND
G15-20KT POSSIBLE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE -RA/-SN. NW WIND
G25-30KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. JUST SOME SLIGHT INCREASES MADE WITH
WIND GUSTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA WATERS BUT STILL EXPECTING
THESE TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS START TO BUILD
TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW SEAS
TO BUILD TO 5 FT TUESDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY ON AT LEAST THE OCEAN
WATERS WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS EAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ON ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MPS
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...BC/JM/MPS
HYDROLOGY...BC/MPS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 280515
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
115 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERALL...SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO BETTER MATCH
OBSERVED TRENDS BUT FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK.

SFC RIDGE AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT W/SW
FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WELL AHEAD OF A PARENT
LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING INITIALLY FOR
THE OUTLYING SUBURBS WILL BE LESS OVERNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS STREAM
IN. WINDS MAY INCREASE ENOUGH PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THAT TEMPS WILL
SHOOT UP QUICKLY IN THOSE SPOTS THAT RADIATE WELL.

LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE PRIMARILY IN THE 40S...THE EXCEPTION BEING
NYC METRO IN THE LOWER 50S...AND AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST AND THE
PINE BARRENS REGION OF LI IN THE 30S...WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST IS
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST APPROACHES.

CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST
OF NYC...AS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE
SUNRISE.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOSED LOW PRES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH AND
INTO NORTHERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL DRAG A SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS SEEM TO BREAK AN
UPPER TROUGH OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW...AND THE SFC FRONT LOSES ITS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. CAN EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
QPF. MOST OF THE SHOWERS COULD TAPER OFF BEFORE THEY MAKE IT TO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. SHARP CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THEN
ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CARVE AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SFC LOW PRES WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
NY...AND THEN SFC LOW PRES FORMS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
LONG RANGE MODELS IN TERMS OF PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THESE
LOWS...BUT WOULD EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
THE REGION. THE ONE THING THAT THE MODELS HAVE IN COMMON IS THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS FALLING
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...AND THEN TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS WILL BRING ABOUT PTYPE ISSUES FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ALL SNOW CONFINED TO INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SW
CT....AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW INTO NYC AND SOUTHERN CT. WILL KEEP
PRECIP ALL RAIN FOR LONG ISLAND. THE QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
IS HOW FAR WEST TO SPREAD THE PRECIP. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES. OBVIOUSLY...THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE SEVERAL TIMES BASED ON
THE NEWEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS ALSO WAY TOO SOON TO DETERMINE HOW
MUCH SNOW...IF ANY...WILL ACCUMULATE.

TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70...ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WILL DROP BACK TO
NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 40S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND CONDS SHOULD MODERATE
SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

VFR. LIGHT SW FLOW BCMG VRB TONIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...VFR. SW FLOW AROUND 10 KT DEVELOPS IN THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY BACKING TO THE S DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR JFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
.TUES NIGHT...VFR.
.WED-WED NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS PSBL WITH -SHRA. WSW TO NW WIND SHIFT WED NIGHT. OCNL
GUSTS 15-20 KTS PSBL.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...GENERALLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
PSBL WITH PCPN. LOW CONFIDENCE OF PCPN TYPE/AMT. WNW FLOW
10-15G20KT INTERIOR...15-20G25-30KT AT THE COAST SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. JUST SOME SLIGHT INCREASES MADE WITH
WIND GUSTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA WATERS BUT STILL EXPECTING
THESE TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS START TO BUILD
TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW SEAS
TO BUILD TO 5 FT TUESDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS LIKELY ON AT LEAST THE OCEAN WATERS
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS
EAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDS.

STRONG LOW PRES COULD IMPACT THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS ON ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MPS
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/JM/MPS
HYDROLOGY...BC/MPS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 280156
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
956 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT W/SW
FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE
OUTLYING SUBURBS RESULTING IN SOME LOCATIONS ALREADY BELOW THERE
FORECAST LOWS. THUS...HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS. WINDS MAY
INCREASE ENOUGH PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THAT TEMPS WILL SHOOT UP QUICKLY
IN THOSE SPOTS THAT RADIATE WELL.

LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE PRIMARILY IN THE 40S...THE EXCEPTION BEING
NYC METRO IN THE LOWER 50S...AND AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST AND THE
PINE BARRENS REGION OF LI IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST APPROACHES.

CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST
OF NYC...AS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE
SUNRISE.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOSED LOW PRES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH AND
INTO NORTHERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL DRAG A SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS SEEM TO BREAK AN
UPPER TROUGH OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW...AND THE SFC FRONT LOSES ITS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. CAN EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
QPF. MOST OF THE SHOWERS COULD TAPER OFF BEFORE THEY MAKE IT TO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. SHARP CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THEN
ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CARVE AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SFC LOW PRES WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
NY...AND THEN SFC LOW PRES FORMS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
LONG RANGE MODELS IN TERMS OF PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THESE
LOWS...BUT WOULD EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
THE REGION. THE ONE THING THAT THE MODELS HAVE IN COMMON IS THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS FALLING
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...AND THEN TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS WILL BRING ABOUT PTYPE ISSUES FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ALL SNOW CONFINED TO INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SW
CT....AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW INTO NYC AND SOUTHERN CT. WILL KEEP
PRECIP ALL RAIN FOR LONG ISLAND. THE QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
IS HOW FAR WEST TO SPREAD THE PRECIP. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES. OBVIOUSLY...THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE SEVERAL TIMES BASED ON
THE NEWEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS ALSO WAY TOO SOON TO DETERMINE HOW
MUCH SNOW...IF ANY...WILL ACCUMULATE.

TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70...ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WILL DROP BACK TO
NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 40S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND CONDS SHOULD MODERATE
SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

VFR. LIGHT SW FLOW BCMG VRB TONIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...VFR. SW FLOW AROUND 10 KT DEVELOPS IN THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY BACKING TO THE S DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR JFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
.TUES NIGHT...VFR.
.WED-WED NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS PSBL WITH -SHRA. WSW TO NW WIND SHIFT WED NIGHT. OCNL
GUSTS 15-20 KTS PSBL.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...GENERALLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
PSBL WITH PCPN. LOW CONFIDENCE OF PCPN TYPE/AMT. WNW FLOW
10-15G20KT INTERIOR...15-20G25-30KT AT THE COAST SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS START TO BUILD
TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW SEAS
TO BUILD TO 5 FT TUESDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS LIKELY ON AT LEAST THE OCEAN WATERS
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS
EAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDS.

STRONG LOW PRES COULD IMPACT THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS ON ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/MPS
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...BC/MPS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 280156
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
956 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT W/SW
FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE
OUTLYING SUBURBS RESULTING IN SOME LOCATIONS ALREADY BELOW THERE
FORECAST LOWS. THUS...HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS. WINDS MAY
INCREASE ENOUGH PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THAT TEMPS WILL SHOOT UP QUICKLY
IN THOSE SPOTS THAT RADIATE WELL.

LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE PRIMARILY IN THE 40S...THE EXCEPTION BEING
NYC METRO IN THE LOWER 50S...AND AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST AND THE
PINE BARRENS REGION OF LI IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST APPROACHES.

CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST
OF NYC...AS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE
SUNRISE.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOSED LOW PRES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH AND
INTO NORTHERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL DRAG A SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS SEEM TO BREAK AN
UPPER TROUGH OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW...AND THE SFC FRONT LOSES ITS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. CAN EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
QPF. MOST OF THE SHOWERS COULD TAPER OFF BEFORE THEY MAKE IT TO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. SHARP CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THEN
ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CARVE AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SFC LOW PRES WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
NY...AND THEN SFC LOW PRES FORMS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
LONG RANGE MODELS IN TERMS OF PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THESE
LOWS...BUT WOULD EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
THE REGION. THE ONE THING THAT THE MODELS HAVE IN COMMON IS THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS FALLING
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...AND THEN TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS WILL BRING ABOUT PTYPE ISSUES FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ALL SNOW CONFINED TO INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SW
CT....AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW INTO NYC AND SOUTHERN CT. WILL KEEP
PRECIP ALL RAIN FOR LONG ISLAND. THE QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
IS HOW FAR WEST TO SPREAD THE PRECIP. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES. OBVIOUSLY...THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE SEVERAL TIMES BASED ON
THE NEWEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS ALSO WAY TOO SOON TO DETERMINE HOW
MUCH SNOW...IF ANY...WILL ACCUMULATE.

TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70...ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WILL DROP BACK TO
NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 40S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND CONDS SHOULD MODERATE
SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

VFR. LIGHT SW FLOW BCMG VRB TONIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...VFR. SW FLOW AROUND 10 KT DEVELOPS IN THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY BACKING TO THE S DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR JFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
.TUES NIGHT...VFR.
.WED-WED NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS PSBL WITH -SHRA. WSW TO NW WIND SHIFT WED NIGHT. OCNL
GUSTS 15-20 KTS PSBL.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...GENERALLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
PSBL WITH PCPN. LOW CONFIDENCE OF PCPN TYPE/AMT. WNW FLOW
10-15G20KT INTERIOR...15-20G25-30KT AT THE COAST SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS START TO BUILD
TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW SEAS
TO BUILD TO 5 FT TUESDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS LIKELY ON AT LEAST THE OCEAN WATERS
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS
EAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDS.

STRONG LOW PRES COULD IMPACT THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS ON ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/MPS
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...BC/MPS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 280001
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
801 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH A LIGHT
W/SW FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME LOCATIONS RADIATING QUITE
NICELY WITH DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR STILL IN PLACE. THUS..HAD TO MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. WHETHER OR
NOT THAT WILL TRANSPIRE INTO COOLER LOWS IS DEBATABLE AS A SW FLOW
MAY PICK UP JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME MIXING. FOR THE TIME...HAVE
STAYED THE COURSE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

LOWS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 40S. HOWEVER...LOWS SHOULD STAY
IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NYC METRO...AND DROP INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS...MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST APPROACHES.

CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST
OF NYC...AS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE
SUNRISE.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOSED LOW PRES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH AND
INTO NORTHERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL DRAG A SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS SEEM TO BREAK AN
UPPER TROUGH OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW...AND THE SFC FRONT LOSES ITS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. CAN EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
QPF. MOST OF THE SHOWERS COULD TAPER OFF BEFORE THEY MAKE IT TO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. SHARP CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THEN
ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CARVE AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SFC LOW PRES WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
NY...AND THEN SFC LOW PRES FORMS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
LONG RANGE MODELS IN TERMS OF PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THESE
LOWS...BUT WOULD EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
THE REGION. THE ONE THING THAT THE MODELS HAVE IN COMMON IS THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS FALLING
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...AND THEN TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS WILL BRING ABOUT PTYPE ISSUES FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ALL SNOW CONFINED TO INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SW
CT....AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW INTO NYC AND SOUTHERN CT. WILL KEEP
PRECIP ALL RAIN FOR LONG ISLAND. THE QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
IS HOW FAR WEST TO SPREAD THE PRECIP. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES. OBVIOUSLY...THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE SEVERAL TIMES BASED ON
THE NEWEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS ALSO WAY TOO SOON TO DETERMINE HOW
MUCH SNOW...IF ANY...WILL ACCUMULATE.

TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70...ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WILL DROP BACK TO
NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 40S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND CONDS SHOULD MODERATE
SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

VFR. LIGHT SW FLOW BCMG VRB TONIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...VFR. SW FLOW AROUND 10 KT DEVELOPS IN THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY BACKING TO THE S DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR JFK.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
.TUES NIGHT...VFR.
.WED-WED NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS PSBL WITH -SHRA. WSW TO NW WIND SHIFT WED NIGHT. OCNL
GUSTS 15-20 KTS PSBL.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...GENERALLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
PSBL WITH PCPN. LOW CONFIDENCE OF PCPN TYPE/AMT. WNW FLOW
10-15G20KT INTERIOR...15-20G25-30KT AT THE COAST SAT.


&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS START TO BUILD
TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW SEAS
TO BUILD TO 5 FT TUESDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS LIKELY ON AT LEAST THE OCEAN WATERS
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS
EAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDS.

STRONG LOW PRES COULD IMPACT THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS ON ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/MPS
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...BC/MPS










000
FXUS61 KOKX 272044
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
444 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S. EXCEPT LOWS MAY STAY IN THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NYC METRO...AND SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS...MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST APPROACHES.

CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST
OF NYC...AS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE
SUNRISE.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOSED LOW PRES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH AND
INTO NORTHERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL DRAG A SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS SEEM TO BREAK AN
UPPER TROUGH OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW...AND THE SFC FRONT LOSES ITS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. CAN EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
QPF. MOST OF THE SHOWERS COULD TAPER OFF BEFORE THEY MAKE IT TO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. SHARP CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THEN
ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CARVE AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SFC LOW PRES WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
NY...AND THEN SFC LOW PRES FORMS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
LONG RANGE MODELS IN TERMS OF PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THESE
LOWS...BUT WOULD EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
THE REGION. THE ONE THING THAT THE MODELS HAVE IN COMMON IS THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS FALLING
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...AND THEN TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS WILL BRING ABOUT PTYPE ISSUES FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ALL SNOW CONFINED TO INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SW
CT....AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW INTO NYC AND SOUTHERN CT. WILL KEEP
PRECIP ALL RAIN FOR LONG ISLAND. THE QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
IS HOW FAR WEST TO SPREAD THE PRECIP. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES. OBVIOUSLY...THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE SEVERAL TIMES BASED ON
THE NEWEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS ALSO WAY TOO SOON TO DETERMINE HOW
MUCH SNOW...IF ANY...WILL ACCUMULATE.

TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70...ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WILL DROP BACK TO
NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 40S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND CONDS SHOULD MODERATE
SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR HIGH PRESSURE INTO THIS EVENING.

W FLOW LATE THIS AFTN MAY BECOME WSW FOR SOME TERMINALS BEFORE
BCMG LIGHT AND VRB THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC WINDS PREVAIL 220-250 MAGNETIC STARTING
23-00Z BEFORE GOING VAR LATER IN THE EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
.TUES-TUES NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.WED-WED NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS PSBL WITH -SHRA. WSW TO NW WIND SHIFT WED NIGHT. OCNL
GUSTS 15-20 KTS PSBL.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...GENERALLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
PSBL WITH PCPN. LOW CONFIDENCE OF PCPN TYPE/AMT. WNW FLOW
10-15G20KT INTERIOR...15-20G25-30KT AT THE COAST SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS START TO BUILD
TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW SEAS
TO BUILD TO 5 FT TUESDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS LIKELY ON AT LEAST THE OCEAN WATERS
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS
EAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDS.

STRONG LOW PRES COULD IMPACT THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS ON ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JC/SEARS
MARINE...BC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...BC/MPS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 271927
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
327 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S. EXCEPT LOWS MAY STAY IN THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NYC METRO...AND SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS...MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST APPROACHES.

CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST
OF NYC...AS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE
SUNRISE.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOSED LOW PRES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH AND
INTO NORTHERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL DRAG A SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS SEEM TO BREAK AN
UPPER TROUGH OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW...AND THE SFC FRONT LOSES ITS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. CAN EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
QPF. MOST OF THE SHOWERS COULD TAPER OFF BEFORE THEY MAKE IT TO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. SHARP CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THEN
ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CARVE AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SFC LOW PRES WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
NY...AND THEN SFC LOW PRES FORMS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
LONG RANGE MODELS IN TERMS OF PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THESE
LOWS...BUT WOULD EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
THE REGION. THE ONE THING THAT THE MODELS HAVE IN COMMON IS THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS FALLING
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...AND THEN TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS WILL BRING ABOUT PTYPE ISSUES FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ALL SNOW CONFINED TO INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SW
CT....AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW INTO NYC AND SOUTHERN CT. WILL KEEP
PRECIP ALL RAIN FOR LONG ISLAND. THE QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
IS HOW FAR WEST TO SPREAD THE PRECIP. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES. OBVIOUSLY...THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE SEVERAL TIMES BASED ON
THE NEWEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS ALSO WAY TOO SOON TO DETERMINE HOW
MUCH SNOW...IF ANY...WILL ACCUMULATE.

TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70...ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WILL DROP BACK TO
NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 40S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND CONDS SHOULD MODERATE
SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

WNW FLOW BETWEEN 7-12 KTS THROUGH THE AFTN...BCMG LIGHT AND VRB
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. S FLOW AFTR 12Z TOMORROW...GENERALLY
8-13 KTS. OCNL GUSTS MAY MIX IN BUT TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE
AT THE MOMENT.

A FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN 260-300 (TRUE) THROUGH
22Z...BCMG 260-280 (TRUE) FOR THE AFTN/EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN 300-330 (TRUE) THROUGH
21Z...BCMG 270-290 (TRUE) FOR THE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN 260-290 (TRUE) THRU
THE AFTN. VERY SPORADIC GUSTS TO 16 KTS PSBL THRU 20Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
.TUES-TUES NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.WED-WED NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS PSBL WITH -SHRA. WSW TO NW WIND SHIFT WED NIGHT. OCNL
GUSTS 15-20 KTS PSBL.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...GENERALLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
PSBL WITH PCPN. LOW CONFIDENCE OF PCPN TYPE/AMT. WNW FLOW
10-15G20KT INTERIOR...15-20G25-30KT AT THE COAST SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS START TO BUILD
TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW SEAS
TO BUILD TO 5 FT TUESDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS LIKELY ON AT LEAST THE OCEAN WATERS
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS
EAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDS.

STRONG LOW PRES COULD IMPACT THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS ON ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...BC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...BC/MPS








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