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000
FXUS61 KOKX 061734
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1234 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEEP LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN
ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN JUST TO OUR
SOUTH.

A FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS AND WEAK WAA ON SW WINDS
WILL HELP TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS NEARBY TONIGHT BUT SHOULD YIELD TO DEVELOPING
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES MOVES OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY
AS NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
SFC LOW MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT MOST DURING THIS TIME.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD TAKE PLACE WITH SNOW PACK AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...BUT LIGHT SW WIND FLOW MAY PREVENT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING.

ON SUNDAY...TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH MANY FEATURES IN PLAY.
ONCE AGAIN...SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SE
COAST...DRIVING DEEP SFC LOW OFFSHORE...PASSING SOMEWHERE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. THEN LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...AND YET ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...THIS ONE MUCH CLOSER TO THE AREA.

CONCERN FOR EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF FIRST LOW OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED
BY NEXT LOW AND TRACK TUESDAY. LARGE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREADS ON
QPF/SNOW.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...NAM AND SREF MUCH WETTER MONDAY
AS LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHWARD COMPARED TO GFS/ECMWF...AND QPF
SHIELD EXTENDS MUCH FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD...OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

HAVE DECIDED TO NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY WPC AND LATEST MODELS BLEND SUITE. WOULD EXPECT
PRECIP TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW.

EVEN IF THAT DOES NOT OCCUR...LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE NEXT
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

AS THE INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PIVOTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND DEPARTS TO THE EAST...AND NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES AND
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS QUITE POSSIBLE. CANNOT THOUGH
RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVIER QPF IF INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER FOR
SUCH.

HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SNOW AT TIMES
MAY VERY WELL OCCUR MONDAY THRU WED. HOWEVER...HAVE MUCH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS AND WHERE ANY HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS SET UP. STAY TUNED.

ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS
IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS.
IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 10 KT THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. WINDS 5 KT OR LESS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -SN...
ESPECIALLY FOR CT AND LONG ISLAND TERMINALS. NE WINDS AROUND 15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDS LIKELY IN SNOW. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE
NEAR THE COAST.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -SN.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 KT LIKELY LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT ON
THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY...INTENSIFYING
AS IT TRACKS NE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUN NIGHT WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST CHC FOR GALES
CURRENTLY EXISTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI SOUND/BAYS SO
HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THESE ZONES. THE STRONG WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MON. OTHERWISE...SCA
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME.

SCA IS THEN LIKELY ON MOST OF THE WATERS INTO TUE AS A WEAKER LOW
PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS
THEN DECREASE TEMPORARILY TUE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON WED FROM A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MON...AND AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE PCPN THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR NERLY
WINDS MONDAY AND TUE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIDES FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
CSTL FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-340-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JMC/PW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 061430
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
930 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEEP LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN
ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN JUST TO OUR
SOUTH.

A FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS AND WEAK WAA ON SW WINDS
WILL HELP TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS NEARBY TONIGHT BUT SHOULD YIELD TO DEVELOPING
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES MOVES OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY
AS NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
SFC LOW MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT MOST DURING THIS TIME.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD TAKE PLACE WITH SNOW PACK AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...BUT LIGHT SW WIND FLOW MAY PREVENT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING.

ON SUNDAY...TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH MANY FEATURES IN PLAY.
ONCE AGAIN...SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SE
COAST...DRIVING DEEP SFC LOW OFFSHORE...PASSING SOMEWHERE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. THEN LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...AND YET ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...THIS ONE MUCH CLOSER TO THE AREA.

CONCERN FOR EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF FIRST LOW OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED
BY NEXT LOW AND TRACK TUESDAY. LARGE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREADS ON
QPF/SNOW.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...NAM AND SREF MUCH WETTER MONDAY
AS LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHWARD COMPARED TO GFS/ECMWF...AND QPF
SHIELD EXTENDS MUCH FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD...OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

HAVE DECIDED TO NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY WPC AND LATEST MODELS BLEND SUITE. WOULD EXPECT
PRECIP TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW.

EVEN IF THAT DOES NOT OCCUR...LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE NEXT
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

AS THE INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PIVOTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND DEPARTS TO THE EAST...AND NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES AND
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS QUITE POSSIBLE. CANNOT THOUGH
RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVIER QPF IF INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER FOR
SUCH.

HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SNOW AT TIMES
MAY VERY WELL OCCUR MONDAY THRU WED. HOWEVER...HAVE MUCH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS AND WHERE ANY HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS SET UP. STAY TUNED.

ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS
IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS.
IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
CITY. CHC NE GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING
THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...

SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 KT LIKELY LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT ON
THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY...INTENSIFYING
AS IT TRACKS NE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUN NIGHT WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST CHC FOR GALES
CURRENTLY EXISTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI SOUND/BAYS SO
HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THESE ZONES. THE STRONG WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MON. OTHERWISE...SCA
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME.

SCA IS THEN LIKELY ON MOST OF THE WATERS INTO TUE AS A WEAKER LOW
PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS
THEN DECREASE TEMPORARILY TUE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON WED FROM A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MON...AND AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE PCPN THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR NERLY
WINDS MONDAY AND TUE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIDES FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
CSTL FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-340-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JMC/PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 061159
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
659 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEEP LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN
ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA WILL HELP
TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

DO EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...POSSIBLY FILTERED THROUGH HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WINDS WILL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS NEARBY TONIGHT BUT SHOULD YIELD TO DEVELOPING
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES MOVES OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY
AS NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
SFC LOW MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT MOST DURING THIS TIME.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD TAKE PLACE WITH SNOW PACK AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...BUT LIGHT SW WIND FLOW MAY PREVENT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING.

ON SUNDAY...TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH MANY FEATURES IN PLAY.
ONCE AGAIN...SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SE
COAST...DRIVING DEEP SFC LOW OFFSHORE...PASSING SOMEWHERE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. THEN LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...AND YET ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...THIS ONE MUCH CLOSER TO THE AREA.

CONCERN FOR EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF FIRST LOW OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED
BY NEXT LOW AND TRACK TUESDAY. LARGE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREADS ON
QPF/SNOW.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...NAM AND SREF MUCH WETTER MONDAY
AS LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHWARD COMPARED TO GFS/ECMWF...AND QPF
SHIELD EXTENDS MUCH FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD...OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

HAVE DECIDED TO NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY WPC AND LATEST MODELS BLEND SUITE. WOULD EXPECT
PRECIP TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW.

EVEN IF THAT DOES NOT OCCUR...LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE NEXT
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

AS THE INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PIVOTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND DEPARTS TO THE EAST...AND NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES AND
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS QUITE POSSIBLE. CANNOT THOUGH
RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVIER QPF IF INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER FOR
SUCH.

HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SNOW AT TIMES
MAY VERY WELL OCCUR MONDAY THRU WED. HOWEVER...HAVE MUCH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS AND WHERE ANY HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS SET UP. STAY TUNED.

ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS
IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS.
IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
CITY. CHC NE GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING
THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVSY LEVELS...SO HAVE CANCELLED
THE SCA ON THE OCEAN. SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. THE HIGH WEAKENS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
COAST INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS NE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
SUN NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST
CHC FOR GALES CURRENTLY EXISTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI
SOUND/BAYS SO HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THESE ZONES. THE STRONG
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MON.
OTHERWISE...SCA LIKELY DURING THIS TIME.

SCA IS THEN LIKELY ON MOST OF THE WATERS INTO TUE AS A WEAKER LOW
PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS
THEN DECREASE TEMPORARILY TUE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON WED FROM A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MON...AND AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE PCPN THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR NERLY
WINDS MONDAY AND TUE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIDES FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
CSTL FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-340-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JMC/PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 061159
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
659 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEEP LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN
ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA WILL HELP
TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

DO EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...POSSIBLY FILTERED THROUGH HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WINDS WILL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS NEARBY TONIGHT BUT SHOULD YIELD TO DEVELOPING
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES MOVES OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY
AS NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
SFC LOW MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT MOST DURING THIS TIME.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD TAKE PLACE WITH SNOW PACK AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...BUT LIGHT SW WIND FLOW MAY PREVENT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING.

ON SUNDAY...TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH MANY FEATURES IN PLAY.
ONCE AGAIN...SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SE
COAST...DRIVING DEEP SFC LOW OFFSHORE...PASSING SOMEWHERE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. THEN LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...AND YET ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...THIS ONE MUCH CLOSER TO THE AREA.

CONCERN FOR EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF FIRST LOW OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED
BY NEXT LOW AND TRACK TUESDAY. LARGE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREADS ON
QPF/SNOW.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...NAM AND SREF MUCH WETTER MONDAY
AS LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHWARD COMPARED TO GFS/ECMWF...AND QPF
SHIELD EXTENDS MUCH FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD...OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

HAVE DECIDED TO NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY WPC AND LATEST MODELS BLEND SUITE. WOULD EXPECT
PRECIP TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW.

EVEN IF THAT DOES NOT OCCUR...LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE NEXT
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

AS THE INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PIVOTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND DEPARTS TO THE EAST...AND NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES AND
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS QUITE POSSIBLE. CANNOT THOUGH
RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVIER QPF IF INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER FOR
SUCH.

HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SNOW AT TIMES
MAY VERY WELL OCCUR MONDAY THRU WED. HOWEVER...HAVE MUCH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS AND WHERE ANY HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS SET UP. STAY TUNED.

ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS
IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS.
IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
CITY. CHC NE GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING
THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVSY LEVELS...SO HAVE CANCELLED
THE SCA ON THE OCEAN. SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. THE HIGH WEAKENS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
COAST INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS NE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
SUN NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST
CHC FOR GALES CURRENTLY EXISTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI
SOUND/BAYS SO HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THESE ZONES. THE STRONG
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MON.
OTHERWISE...SCA LIKELY DURING THIS TIME.

SCA IS THEN LIKELY ON MOST OF THE WATERS INTO TUE AS A WEAKER LOW
PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS
THEN DECREASE TEMPORARILY TUE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON WED FROM A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MON...AND AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE PCPN THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR NERLY
WINDS MONDAY AND TUE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIDES FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
CSTL FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-340-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JMC/PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 061159
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
659 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEEP LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN
ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA WILL HELP
TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

DO EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...POSSIBLY FILTERED THROUGH HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WINDS WILL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS NEARBY TONIGHT BUT SHOULD YIELD TO DEVELOPING
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES MOVES OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY
AS NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
SFC LOW MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT MOST DURING THIS TIME.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD TAKE PLACE WITH SNOW PACK AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...BUT LIGHT SW WIND FLOW MAY PREVENT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING.

ON SUNDAY...TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH MANY FEATURES IN PLAY.
ONCE AGAIN...SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SE
COAST...DRIVING DEEP SFC LOW OFFSHORE...PASSING SOMEWHERE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. THEN LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...AND YET ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...THIS ONE MUCH CLOSER TO THE AREA.

CONCERN FOR EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF FIRST LOW OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED
BY NEXT LOW AND TRACK TUESDAY. LARGE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREADS ON
QPF/SNOW.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...NAM AND SREF MUCH WETTER MONDAY
AS LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHWARD COMPARED TO GFS/ECMWF...AND QPF
SHIELD EXTENDS MUCH FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD...OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

HAVE DECIDED TO NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY WPC AND LATEST MODELS BLEND SUITE. WOULD EXPECT
PRECIP TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW.

EVEN IF THAT DOES NOT OCCUR...LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE NEXT
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

AS THE INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PIVOTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND DEPARTS TO THE EAST...AND NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES AND
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS QUITE POSSIBLE. CANNOT THOUGH
RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVIER QPF IF INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER FOR
SUCH.

HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SNOW AT TIMES
MAY VERY WELL OCCUR MONDAY THRU WED. HOWEVER...HAVE MUCH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS AND WHERE ANY HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS SET UP. STAY TUNED.

ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS
IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS.
IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
CITY. CHC NE GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING
THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVSY LEVELS...SO HAVE CANCELLED
THE SCA ON THE OCEAN. SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. THE HIGH WEAKENS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
COAST INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS NE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
SUN NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST
CHC FOR GALES CURRENTLY EXISTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI
SOUND/BAYS SO HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THESE ZONES. THE STRONG
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MON.
OTHERWISE...SCA LIKELY DURING THIS TIME.

SCA IS THEN LIKELY ON MOST OF THE WATERS INTO TUE AS A WEAKER LOW
PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS
THEN DECREASE TEMPORARILY TUE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON WED FROM A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MON...AND AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE PCPN THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR NERLY
WINDS MONDAY AND TUE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIDES FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
CSTL FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-340-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JMC/PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 060910
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
410 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEEP LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN
ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA WILL HELP
TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

DO EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...POSSIBLY FILTERED THROUGH HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WINDS WILL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS NEARBY TONIGHT BUT SHOULD YIELD TO DEVELOPING
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES MOVES OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY
AS NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
SFC LOW MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT MOST DURING THIS TIME.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD TAKE PLACE WITH SNOW PACK AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...BUT LIGHT SW WIND FLOW MAY PREVENT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING.

ON SUNDAY...TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH MANY FEATURES IN PLAY.
ONCE AGAIN...SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SE
COAST...DRIVING DEEP SFC LOW OFFSHORE...PASSING SOMEWHERE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. THEN LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...AND YET ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...THIS ONE MUCH CLOSER TO THE AREA.

CONCERN FOR EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF FIRST LOW OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED
BY NEXT LOW AND TRACK TUESDAY. LARGE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREADS ON
QPF/SNOW.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...NAM AND SREF MUCH WETTER MONDAY
AS LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHWARD COMPARED TO GFS/ECMWF...AND QPF
SHIELD EXTENDS MUCH FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD...OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

HAVE DECIDED TO NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY WPC AND LATEST MODELS BLEND SUITE. WOULD EXPECT
PRECIP TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW.

EVEN IF THAT DOES NOT OCCUR...LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE NEXT
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

AS THE INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PIVOTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND DEPARTS TO THE EAST...AND NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES AND
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS QUITE POSSIBLE. CANNOT THOUGH
RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVIER QPF IF INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER FOR
SUCH.

HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SNOW AT TIMES
MAY VERY WELL OCCUR MONDAY THRU WED. HOWEVER...HAVE MUCH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS AND WHERE ANY HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS SET UP. STAY TUNED.

ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS
IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS.
IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.TONIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
CITY. CHC NE GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING
THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVSY LEVELS...SO HAVE CANCELLED
THE SCA ON THE OCEAN. SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. THE HIGH WEAKENS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
COAST INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS NE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
SUN NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST
CHC FOR GALES CURRENTLY EXISTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI
SOUND/BAYS SO HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THESE ZONES. THE STRONG
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MON.
OTHERWISE...SCA LIKELY DURING THIS TIME.

SCA IS THEN LIKELY ON MOST OF THE WATERS INTO TUE AS A WEAKER LOW
PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS
THEN DECREASE TEMPORARILY TUE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON WED FROM A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MON...AND AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE PCPN THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR NERLY
WINDS MONDAY AND TUE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIDES FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
CSTL FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-340-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JMC/PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 060910
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
410 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEEP LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN
ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA WILL HELP
TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

DO EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...POSSIBLY FILTERED THROUGH HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WINDS WILL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS NEARBY TONIGHT BUT SHOULD YIELD TO DEVELOPING
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES MOVES OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY
AS NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
SFC LOW MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT MOST DURING THIS TIME.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD TAKE PLACE WITH SNOW PACK AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...BUT LIGHT SW WIND FLOW MAY PREVENT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING.

ON SUNDAY...TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH MANY FEATURES IN PLAY.
ONCE AGAIN...SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SE
COAST...DRIVING DEEP SFC LOW OFFSHORE...PASSING SOMEWHERE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. THEN LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...AND YET ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...THIS ONE MUCH CLOSER TO THE AREA.

CONCERN FOR EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF FIRST LOW OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED
BY NEXT LOW AND TRACK TUESDAY. LARGE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREADS ON
QPF/SNOW.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...NAM AND SREF MUCH WETTER MONDAY
AS LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHWARD COMPARED TO GFS/ECMWF...AND QPF
SHIELD EXTENDS MUCH FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD...OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

HAVE DECIDED TO NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY WPC AND LATEST MODELS BLEND SUITE. WOULD EXPECT
PRECIP TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW.

EVEN IF THAT DOES NOT OCCUR...LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE NEXT
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

AS THE INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PIVOTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND DEPARTS TO THE EAST...AND NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES AND
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS QUITE POSSIBLE. CANNOT THOUGH
RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVIER QPF IF INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER FOR
SUCH.

HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SNOW AT TIMES
MAY VERY WELL OCCUR MONDAY THRU WED. HOWEVER...HAVE MUCH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS AND WHERE ANY HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS SET UP. STAY TUNED.

ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS
IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS.
IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.TONIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
CITY. CHC NE GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING
THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVSY LEVELS...SO HAVE CANCELLED
THE SCA ON THE OCEAN. SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. THE HIGH WEAKENS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
COAST INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS NE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
SUN NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST
CHC FOR GALES CURRENTLY EXISTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI
SOUND/BAYS SO HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THESE ZONES. THE STRONG
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MON.
OTHERWISE...SCA LIKELY DURING THIS TIME.

SCA IS THEN LIKELY ON MOST OF THE WATERS INTO TUE AS A WEAKER LOW
PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS
THEN DECREASE TEMPORARILY TUE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON WED FROM A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MON...AND AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE PCPN THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR NERLY
WINDS MONDAY AND TUE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIDES FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
CSTL FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-340-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JMC/PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 060910
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
410 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEEP LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN
ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA WILL HELP
TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

DO EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...POSSIBLY FILTERED THROUGH HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WINDS WILL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS NEARBY TONIGHT BUT SHOULD YIELD TO DEVELOPING
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES MOVES OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY
AS NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
SFC LOW MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT MOST DURING THIS TIME.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD TAKE PLACE WITH SNOW PACK AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...BUT LIGHT SW WIND FLOW MAY PREVENT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING.

ON SUNDAY...TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH MANY FEATURES IN PLAY.
ONCE AGAIN...SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SE
COAST...DRIVING DEEP SFC LOW OFFSHORE...PASSING SOMEWHERE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. THEN LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...AND YET ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...THIS ONE MUCH CLOSER TO THE AREA.

CONCERN FOR EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF FIRST LOW OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED
BY NEXT LOW AND TRACK TUESDAY. LARGE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREADS ON
QPF/SNOW.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...NAM AND SREF MUCH WETTER MONDAY
AS LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHWARD COMPARED TO GFS/ECMWF...AND QPF
SHIELD EXTENDS MUCH FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD...OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

HAVE DECIDED TO NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY WPC AND LATEST MODELS BLEND SUITE. WOULD EXPECT
PRECIP TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW.

EVEN IF THAT DOES NOT OCCUR...LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE NEXT
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

AS THE INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PIVOTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND DEPARTS TO THE EAST...AND NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES AND
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS QUITE POSSIBLE. CANNOT THOUGH
RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVIER QPF IF INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER FOR
SUCH.

HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SNOW AT TIMES
MAY VERY WELL OCCUR MONDAY THRU WED. HOWEVER...HAVE MUCH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS AND WHERE ANY HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS SET UP. STAY TUNED.

ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS
IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS.
IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.TONIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
CITY. CHC NE GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING
THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVSY LEVELS...SO HAVE CANCELLED
THE SCA ON THE OCEAN. SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. THE HIGH WEAKENS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
COAST INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS NE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
SUN NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST
CHC FOR GALES CURRENTLY EXISTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI
SOUND/BAYS SO HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THESE ZONES. THE STRONG
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MON.
OTHERWISE...SCA LIKELY DURING THIS TIME.

SCA IS THEN LIKELY ON MOST OF THE WATERS INTO TUE AS A WEAKER LOW
PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS
THEN DECREASE TEMPORARILY TUE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON WED FROM A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MON...AND AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE PCPN THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR NERLY
WINDS MONDAY AND TUE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIDES FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
CSTL FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-340-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JMC/PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 060346
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1046 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THIS WEEKEND. DEEP LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. EXPECT VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES LATE TONIGHT OVER
FRESH SNOW PACK. EXPECT TEMPS WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS BARRENS REGIONS...AND INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A DEVELOPING SPLIT UPPER FLOW.
A NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO
CENTRAL QUEBEC SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH RESULTANT CLIPPER SYSTEM
TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK. MEANWHILE A CUTOFF LOW SEPARATES INTO THE
SOUTHERN STATES SAT INTO SAT NIGHT FROM THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING
CENTRAL STATES TROUGH...WITH RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE GULF COAST.

EXPECT TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL US SAT MORNING...AND THEN SINKS SE OF
THE REGION FOR SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT.

HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...BASED ON A
SLIGHT REDUCTION OF GUIDANCE BLEND DUE TO NEW SNOW PACK.
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS ACROSS INTERIOR
ONCE AGAIN SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE TEMPERED BY HIGH
CLOUDS AND SW WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE SERN CONUS ON SUN.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME SO FAIR WX
WITH TEMPS AROUND AVG. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NEWD OVER THE
ATLC...REACHING A POINT ABOUT 350 MILES E OF THE BENCHMARK MON AFTN.
THE MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WRT TO THE POSITION OF THE
LOW...WITH THE 12Z GEFS/GEM/GFS/ECMWF SOLNS VIRTUALLY STACKED ON TOP
OF EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME INTENSITY DIFFERENCES...BUT NOT MUCH.
AT 18Z MON...THE ECMWF GETS DOWN TO 971...THE GEM 975 AND THE GFS
977. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TRENDED WWD. THE ECMWF IS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED. BASED ON MODEL PROGS FOR THIS STORM EARLY THIS
WEEK...MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS YEAR AND CURRENT TRENDS...EXPECTING
THE STORM TO END UP TRACKING W OF THE CURRENT PROGS. AS A
RESULT...FCST DATA IS AUGMENTED ABV THE SUPERBLEND FOR WINDS AND
POPS. AT LEAST MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH A NEW MOON ON MON.
WILL START A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR THE SYS. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS ONLY A GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...ALL INTERESTS
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THIS STORM AS A MID 970S LOW TRACKING UP THE
COAST WOULD HAVE SERIOUS IMPACTS. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE H5
LOW DROPPING INTO THE NERN CONUS TUE-THU. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF 2 WEAK LOWS TUE AND WED S OF THE REGION...PROVIDING
CHCS FOR SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WITH THE ULTIMATE
LATITUDE OF THE SYS DICTATING SNOW CHCS AND AMTS. IN ADDITION...IF
THE PATTERN EASES UP AT ALL AND THE LOWS DEVELOP FURTHER NWD...SOME
RAIN IN THE MIX PARTICULARLY CSTL AREAS.  ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS
POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI
WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS. IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR
PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION TOMORROW.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY. SOME
LEFTOVER GUSTS 25-30KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WINDS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10KT OR LESS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CITY. CHC NE
GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING
THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT. SUB SCA CONDS
THEN EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUN...THEN DEEP LOW PRES WILL TRACK E
OF THE WATERS SUN NGT AND MON. THIS WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST SCA
COND...WITH GALES POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCA COND ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ON
THE OCEAN RIGHT THRU THU. ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF SCA LVL WINDS
POSSIBLE WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WED AND THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 060346
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1046 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THIS WEEKEND. DEEP LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. EXPECT VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES LATE TONIGHT OVER
FRESH SNOW PACK. EXPECT TEMPS WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS BARRENS REGIONS...AND INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A DEVELOPING SPLIT UPPER FLOW.
A NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO
CENTRAL QUEBEC SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH RESULTANT CLIPPER SYSTEM
TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK. MEANWHILE A CUTOFF LOW SEPARATES INTO THE
SOUTHERN STATES SAT INTO SAT NIGHT FROM THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING
CENTRAL STATES TROUGH...WITH RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE GULF COAST.

EXPECT TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL US SAT MORNING...AND THEN SINKS SE OF
THE REGION FOR SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT.

HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...BASED ON A
SLIGHT REDUCTION OF GUIDANCE BLEND DUE TO NEW SNOW PACK.
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS ACROSS INTERIOR
ONCE AGAIN SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE TEMPERED BY HIGH
CLOUDS AND SW WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE SERN CONUS ON SUN.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME SO FAIR WX
WITH TEMPS AROUND AVG. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NEWD OVER THE
ATLC...REACHING A POINT ABOUT 350 MILES E OF THE BENCHMARK MON AFTN.
THE MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WRT TO THE POSITION OF THE
LOW...WITH THE 12Z GEFS/GEM/GFS/ECMWF SOLNS VIRTUALLY STACKED ON TOP
OF EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME INTENSITY DIFFERENCES...BUT NOT MUCH.
AT 18Z MON...THE ECMWF GETS DOWN TO 971...THE GEM 975 AND THE GFS
977. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TRENDED WWD. THE ECMWF IS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED. BASED ON MODEL PROGS FOR THIS STORM EARLY THIS
WEEK...MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS YEAR AND CURRENT TRENDS...EXPECTING
THE STORM TO END UP TRACKING W OF THE CURRENT PROGS. AS A
RESULT...FCST DATA IS AUGMENTED ABV THE SUPERBLEND FOR WINDS AND
POPS. AT LEAST MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH A NEW MOON ON MON.
WILL START A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR THE SYS. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS ONLY A GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...ALL INTERESTS
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THIS STORM AS A MID 970S LOW TRACKING UP THE
COAST WOULD HAVE SERIOUS IMPACTS. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE H5
LOW DROPPING INTO THE NERN CONUS TUE-THU. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF 2 WEAK LOWS TUE AND WED S OF THE REGION...PROVIDING
CHCS FOR SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WITH THE ULTIMATE
LATITUDE OF THE SYS DICTATING SNOW CHCS AND AMTS. IN ADDITION...IF
THE PATTERN EASES UP AT ALL AND THE LOWS DEVELOP FURTHER NWD...SOME
RAIN IN THE MIX PARTICULARLY CSTL AREAS.  ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS
POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI
WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS. IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR
PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION TOMORROW.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY. SOME
LEFTOVER GUSTS 25-30KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WINDS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10KT OR LESS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CITY. CHC NE
GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING
THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT. SUB SCA CONDS
THEN EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUN...THEN DEEP LOW PRES WILL TRACK E
OF THE WATERS SUN NGT AND MON. THIS WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST SCA
COND...WITH GALES POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCA COND ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ON
THE OCEAN RIGHT THRU THU. ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF SCA LVL WINDS
POSSIBLE WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WED AND THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 060039
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
739 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THIS WEEKEND. DEEP LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. EXPECT VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES LATE TONIGHT OVER
FRESH SNOW PACK. EXPECT TEMPS WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS BARRENS REGIONS...AND INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A DEVELOPING SPLIT UPPER FLOW.
A NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO
CENTRAL QUEBEC SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH RESULTANT CLIPPER SYSTEM
TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK. MEANWHILE A CUTOFF LOW SEPARATES INTO THE
SOUTHERN STATES SAT INTO SAT NIGHT FROM THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING
CENTRAL STATES TROUGH...WITH RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE GULF COAST.

EXPECT TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL US SAT MORNING...AND THEN SINKS SE OF
THE REGION FOR SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT.

HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...BASED ON A
SLIGHT REDUCTION OF GUIDANCE BLEND DUE TO NEW SNOW PACK.
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS ACROSS INTERIOR
ONCE AGAIN SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE TEMPERED BY HIGH
CLOUDS AND SW WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE SERN CONUS ON SUN.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME SO FAIR WX
WITH TEMPS AROUND AVG. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NEWD OVER THE
ATLC...REACHING A POINT ABOUT 350 MILES E OF THE BENCHMARK MON AFTN.
THE MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WRT TO THE POSITION OF THE
LOW...WITH THE 12Z GEFS/GEM/GFS/ECMWF SOLNS VIRTUALLY STACKED ON TOP
OF EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME INTENSITY DIFFERENCES...BUT NOT MUCH.
AT 18Z MON...THE ECMWF GETS DOWN TO 971...THE GEM 975 AND THE GFS
977. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TRENDED WWD. THE ECMWF IS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED. BASED ON MODEL PROGS FOR THIS STORM EARLY THIS
WEEK...MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS YEAR AND CURRENT TRENDS...EXPECTING
THE STORM TO END UP TRACKING W OF THE CURRENT PROGS. AS A
RESULT...FCST DATA IS AUGMENTED ABV THE SUPERBLEND FOR WINDS AND
POPS. AT LEAST MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH A NEW MOON ON MON.
WILL START A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR THE SYS. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS ONLY A GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...ALL INTERESTS
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THIS STORM AS A MID 970S LOW TRACKING UP THE
COAST WOULD HAVE SERIOUS IMPACTS. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE H5
LOW DROPPING INTO THE NERN CONUS TUE-THU. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF 2 WEAK LOWS TUE AND WED S OF THE REGION...PROVIDING
CHCS FOR SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WITH THE ULTIMATE
LATITUDE OF THE SYS DICTATING SNOW CHCS AND AMTS. IN ADDITION...IF
THE PATTERN EASES UP AT ALL AND THE LOWS DEVELOP FURTHER NWD...SOME
RAIN IN THE MIX PARTICULARLY CSTL AREAS.  ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS
POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI
WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS. IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR
PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY. SOME
LEFTOVER GUSTS 25-30KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
TOMORROW WILL REMAIN 10KT OR LESS.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CITY. CHC NE
GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING
THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REPLACED WITH SCA OUT EAST AS PEAK WINDS QUICKLY
DIMINISHED BELOW 35 KT AT 44017...SO SCA CONDS NOW ARE IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 10 PM...AND FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...THOUGH CONDS THERE MAY EVEN SUBSIDE SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUN...THEN DEEP LOW PRES WILL TRACK E
OF THE WATERS SUN NGT AND MON. THIS WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST SCA
COND...WITH GALES POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCA COND ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ON
THE OCEAN RIGHT THRU THU. ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF SCA LVL WINDS
POSSIBLE WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WED AND THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 060039
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
739 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THIS WEEKEND. DEEP LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. EXPECT VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES LATE TONIGHT OVER
FRESH SNOW PACK. EXPECT TEMPS WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS BARRENS REGIONS...AND INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A DEVELOPING SPLIT UPPER FLOW.
A NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO
CENTRAL QUEBEC SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH RESULTANT CLIPPER SYSTEM
TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK. MEANWHILE A CUTOFF LOW SEPARATES INTO THE
SOUTHERN STATES SAT INTO SAT NIGHT FROM THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING
CENTRAL STATES TROUGH...WITH RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE GULF COAST.

EXPECT TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL US SAT MORNING...AND THEN SINKS SE OF
THE REGION FOR SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT.

HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...BASED ON A
SLIGHT REDUCTION OF GUIDANCE BLEND DUE TO NEW SNOW PACK.
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS ACROSS INTERIOR
ONCE AGAIN SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE TEMPERED BY HIGH
CLOUDS AND SW WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE SERN CONUS ON SUN.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME SO FAIR WX
WITH TEMPS AROUND AVG. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NEWD OVER THE
ATLC...REACHING A POINT ABOUT 350 MILES E OF THE BENCHMARK MON AFTN.
THE MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WRT TO THE POSITION OF THE
LOW...WITH THE 12Z GEFS/GEM/GFS/ECMWF SOLNS VIRTUALLY STACKED ON TOP
OF EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME INTENSITY DIFFERENCES...BUT NOT MUCH.
AT 18Z MON...THE ECMWF GETS DOWN TO 971...THE GEM 975 AND THE GFS
977. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TRENDED WWD. THE ECMWF IS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED. BASED ON MODEL PROGS FOR THIS STORM EARLY THIS
WEEK...MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS YEAR AND CURRENT TRENDS...EXPECTING
THE STORM TO END UP TRACKING W OF THE CURRENT PROGS. AS A
RESULT...FCST DATA IS AUGMENTED ABV THE SUPERBLEND FOR WINDS AND
POPS. AT LEAST MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH A NEW MOON ON MON.
WILL START A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR THE SYS. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS ONLY A GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...ALL INTERESTS
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THIS STORM AS A MID 970S LOW TRACKING UP THE
COAST WOULD HAVE SERIOUS IMPACTS. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE H5
LOW DROPPING INTO THE NERN CONUS TUE-THU. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF 2 WEAK LOWS TUE AND WED S OF THE REGION...PROVIDING
CHCS FOR SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WITH THE ULTIMATE
LATITUDE OF THE SYS DICTATING SNOW CHCS AND AMTS. IN ADDITION...IF
THE PATTERN EASES UP AT ALL AND THE LOWS DEVELOP FURTHER NWD...SOME
RAIN IN THE MIX PARTICULARLY CSTL AREAS.  ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS
POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI
WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS. IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR
PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY. SOME
LEFTOVER GUSTS 25-30KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
TOMORROW WILL REMAIN 10KT OR LESS.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CITY. CHC NE
GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING
THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REPLACED WITH SCA OUT EAST AS PEAK WINDS QUICKLY
DIMINISHED BELOW 35 KT AT 44017...SO SCA CONDS NOW ARE IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 10 PM...AND FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...THOUGH CONDS THERE MAY EVEN SUBSIDE SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUN...THEN DEEP LOW PRES WILL TRACK E
OF THE WATERS SUN NGT AND MON. THIS WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST SCA
COND...WITH GALES POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCA COND ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ON
THE OCEAN RIGHT THRU THU. ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF SCA LVL WINDS
POSSIBLE WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WED AND THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 060039
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
739 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THIS WEEKEND. DEEP LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. EXPECT VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES LATE TONIGHT OVER
FRESH SNOW PACK. EXPECT TEMPS WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS BARRENS REGIONS...AND INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A DEVELOPING SPLIT UPPER FLOW.
A NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO
CENTRAL QUEBEC SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH RESULTANT CLIPPER SYSTEM
TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK. MEANWHILE A CUTOFF LOW SEPARATES INTO THE
SOUTHERN STATES SAT INTO SAT NIGHT FROM THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING
CENTRAL STATES TROUGH...WITH RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE GULF COAST.

EXPECT TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL US SAT MORNING...AND THEN SINKS SE OF
THE REGION FOR SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT.

HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...BASED ON A
SLIGHT REDUCTION OF GUIDANCE BLEND DUE TO NEW SNOW PACK.
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS ACROSS INTERIOR
ONCE AGAIN SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE TEMPERED BY HIGH
CLOUDS AND SW WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE SERN CONUS ON SUN.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME SO FAIR WX
WITH TEMPS AROUND AVG. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NEWD OVER THE
ATLC...REACHING A POINT ABOUT 350 MILES E OF THE BENCHMARK MON AFTN.
THE MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WRT TO THE POSITION OF THE
LOW...WITH THE 12Z GEFS/GEM/GFS/ECMWF SOLNS VIRTUALLY STACKED ON TOP
OF EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME INTENSITY DIFFERENCES...BUT NOT MUCH.
AT 18Z MON...THE ECMWF GETS DOWN TO 971...THE GEM 975 AND THE GFS
977. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TRENDED WWD. THE ECMWF IS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED. BASED ON MODEL PROGS FOR THIS STORM EARLY THIS
WEEK...MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS YEAR AND CURRENT TRENDS...EXPECTING
THE STORM TO END UP TRACKING W OF THE CURRENT PROGS. AS A
RESULT...FCST DATA IS AUGMENTED ABV THE SUPERBLEND FOR WINDS AND
POPS. AT LEAST MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH A NEW MOON ON MON.
WILL START A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR THE SYS. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS ONLY A GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...ALL INTERESTS
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THIS STORM AS A MID 970S LOW TRACKING UP THE
COAST WOULD HAVE SERIOUS IMPACTS. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE H5
LOW DROPPING INTO THE NERN CONUS TUE-THU. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF 2 WEAK LOWS TUE AND WED S OF THE REGION...PROVIDING
CHCS FOR SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WITH THE ULTIMATE
LATITUDE OF THE SYS DICTATING SNOW CHCS AND AMTS. IN ADDITION...IF
THE PATTERN EASES UP AT ALL AND THE LOWS DEVELOP FURTHER NWD...SOME
RAIN IN THE MIX PARTICULARLY CSTL AREAS.  ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS
POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI
WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS. IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR
PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY. SOME
LEFTOVER GUSTS 25-30KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
TOMORROW WILL REMAIN 10KT OR LESS.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CITY. CHC NE
GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING
THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REPLACED WITH SCA OUT EAST AS PEAK WINDS QUICKLY
DIMINISHED BELOW 35 KT AT 44017...SO SCA CONDS NOW ARE IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 10 PM...AND FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...THOUGH CONDS THERE MAY EVEN SUBSIDE SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUN...THEN DEEP LOW PRES WILL TRACK E
OF THE WATERS SUN NGT AND MON. THIS WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST SCA
COND...WITH GALES POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCA COND ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ON
THE OCEAN RIGHT THRU THU. ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF SCA LVL WINDS
POSSIBLE WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WED AND THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 052058
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
358 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE PASSES TRACKS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
REMAINS INTO THIS WEEKEND. DEEP LOW PRES WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLC
LATE SUN NGT INTO MON. AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP
OVER THE AREA THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

A GENERAL 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...HAS FALLEN ACROSS LI AND CT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BOTH REGIONS. THE HEAVY WET
SNOW...COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 30S...WILL CONTINUE A DANGEROUS THREAT FOR DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND
POWER LINES INTO THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES
TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR AND PINE
BARRENS...COUPLE WITH FRESH SNOWPACK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL WELL
DOWN INTO THE TEENS. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A DEVELOPING SPLIT UPPER FLOW. A
NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO
CENTRAL QUEBEC SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH RESULTANT CLIPPER SYSTEM
TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK. MEANWHILE A CUTOFF LOW SEPARATES INTO THE
SOUTHERN US SAT INTO SAT NIGHT FROM THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING
CENTRAL US TROUGH...WITH RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

FOR THE TRI-STATE...TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL US SAT MORNING...AND THEN SINKS
SE OF THE REGION FOR SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT.

HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...BASED ON A
SLIGHT REDUCTION OF GUIDANCE BLEND DUE TO NEW SNOWPACK. POTENTIAL
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS ACROSS INTERIOR ONCE AGAIN SAT
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE TEMPERED BY HIGH CLOUDS AND SW WINDS
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE SERN CONUS ON SUN.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME SO FAIR WX
WITH TEMPS AROUND AVG. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NEWD OVER THE
ATLC...REACHING A POINT ABOUT 350 MILES E OF THE BENCHMARK MON AFTN.
THE MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WRT TO THE POSITION OF THE
LOW...WITH THE 12Z GEFS/GEM/GFS/ECMWF SOLNS VIRTUALLY STACKED ON TOP
OF EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME INTENSITY DIFFERENCES...BUT NOT MUCH.
AT 18Z MON...THE ECMWF GETS DOWN TO 971...THE GEM 975 AND THE GFS
977. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TRENDED WWD. THE ECMWF IS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED. BASED ON MODEL PROGS FOR THIS STORM EARLY THIS
WEEK...MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS YEAR AND CURRENT TRENDS...EXPECTING
THE STORM TO END UP TRACKING W OF THE CURRENT PROGS. AS A
RESULT...FCST DATA IS AUGMENTED ABV THE SUPERBLEND FOR WINDS AND
POPS. AT LEAST MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH A NEW MOON ON MON.
WILL START A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR THE SYS. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS ONLY A GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...ALL INTERESTS
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THIS STORM AS A MID 970S LOW TRACKING UP THE
COAST WOULD HAVE SERIOUS IMPACTS. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE H5
LOW DROPPING INTO THE NERN CONUS TUE-THU. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF 2 WEAK LOWS TUE AND WED S OF THE REGION...PROVIDING
CHCS FOR SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WITH THE ULTIMATE
LATITUDE OF THE SYS DICTATING SNOW CHCS AND AMTS. IN ADDITION...IF
THE PATTERN EASES UP AT ALL AND THE LOWS DEVELOP FURTHER NWD...SOME
RAIN IN THE MIX PARTICULARLY CSTL AREAS.  ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS
POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI
WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS. IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR
PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT.

SNOW WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS KGON SHORTLY...WITH CONDS IMPROVING
TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SNOW ENDS.

GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC. GUSTS 25-30KT THRU EARLY EVENING...DIMINISHING LATE.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CITY. CHC NE
GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING
THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. MINIMAL
GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AND
SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARDS INTO THE WATERS. THE

SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO SUBSIDE DUE TO
SOUTHERLY SWELLS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING. THEREAFTER...SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS INT
SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ON OCEAN
WATERS LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUN...THEN DEEP LOW PRES WILL TRACK E
OF THE WATERS SUN NGT AND MON. THIS WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST SCA
COND...WITH GALES POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCA COND ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ON
THE OCEAN RIGHT THRU THU. ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF SCA LVL WINDS
POSSIBLE WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WED AND THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 051814
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
114 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
REMAINS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO
PASSING OFFSHORE LOW MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER
TO THE AREA TUESDAY. LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A GENERAL 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...HAS FALLEN ACROSS LI AND CT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BOTH REGIONS. THE HEAVY WET SNOW...COMBINED
WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE
30S...WILL CONTINUE A THREAT FOR DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES FOR NYC METRO...LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ...WITH LITTLE SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUD VALLEY.

OTHERWISE...WINTER STORM WINDING DOWN QUICKLY AS LOW
PRESSURE...JUST SOUTHEAST OF 40/70 LAT/LON...CONTINUES TO TRACK TO
THE NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW HAS COME
TO AND END FOR WESTERN LI AND CT...AND WILL END THROUGH 3 PM FOR
EASTERN LI AND SE CT...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES LIKELY
BEFORE COMING TO AND END.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT.

SNOW HAS ENDED OVER THE CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS WEST. SNOW WILL
COME TO AN END OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS BY LATE AFTN.

VFR WHERE SNOW HAS ENDED. WHERE SNOW CONTINUES...IFR TO MVFR CONDS
IMPROVING TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SNOW ENDS.

NW WINDS THIS AFTN...PRIMARILY NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC. GUSTS 25-30KT
THRU AT LEAST MID-AFTN...DIMINISHING LATE.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS MIGHT BE FORECAST TO
BE A COUPLE OF KTS TOO STRONG THIS AFTN. GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR
TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL...AND IF
FREQUENT...MAY END AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AFTER 18Z
EXPECTED TO BE UNDER AN INCH. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CITY. CHC NE
GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING
THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...

MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE MAY BE SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON
THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO THIS EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR
EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS
REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SNOWFALL WILL WIND DOWN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN LI AND FAR SE CT
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ006>008-010>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 051814
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
114 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
REMAINS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO
PASSING OFFSHORE LOW MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER
TO THE AREA TUESDAY. LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A GENERAL 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...HAS FALLEN ACROSS LI AND CT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BOTH REGIONS. THE HEAVY WET SNOW...COMBINED
WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE
30S...WILL CONTINUE A THREAT FOR DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES FOR NYC METRO...LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ...WITH LITTLE SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUD VALLEY.

OTHERWISE...WINTER STORM WINDING DOWN QUICKLY AS LOW
PRESSURE...JUST SOUTHEAST OF 40/70 LAT/LON...CONTINUES TO TRACK TO
THE NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW HAS COME
TO AND END FOR WESTERN LI AND CT...AND WILL END THROUGH 3 PM FOR
EASTERN LI AND SE CT...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES LIKELY
BEFORE COMING TO AND END.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT.

SNOW HAS ENDED OVER THE CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS WEST. SNOW WILL
COME TO AN END OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS BY LATE AFTN.

VFR WHERE SNOW HAS ENDED. WHERE SNOW CONTINUES...IFR TO MVFR CONDS
IMPROVING TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SNOW ENDS.

NW WINDS THIS AFTN...PRIMARILY NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC. GUSTS 25-30KT
THRU AT LEAST MID-AFTN...DIMINISHING LATE.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS MIGHT BE FORECAST TO
BE A COUPLE OF KTS TOO STRONG THIS AFTN. GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR
TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL...AND IF
FREQUENT...MAY END AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AFTER 18Z
EXPECTED TO BE UNDER AN INCH. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CITY. CHC NE
GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING
THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...

MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE MAY BE SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON
THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO THIS EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR
EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS
REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SNOWFALL WILL WIND DOWN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN LI AND FAR SE CT
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ006>008-010>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 051549
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1049 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY.
LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST SOUTHEAST OF 40/70
LAT/LON TROUGH MIDDAY...THEN CONTINUING TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL END VERY SHORTLY
OVER THE FAR NW ZONES...AND SHOULD END NEAR NOON FOR THE
NE NJ/NYC/LOWER HUD WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH POSSIBLE THERE.

ACROSS LI/CT...HEAVY WET SNOW BANDING ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
LOW...JUST EAST OF THE NYC METRO...WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE NE OF
LI/CT THROUGH THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCH PER HOUR ARE OCCURRING UNDER THIS BAND AS IT PUSHES EAST.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
LI AND CT...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST. BASED ON 4 TO 7 INCHES THAT
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS LI/CT...A GENERAL 6 TO 10 INCHES OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA...WITH LOCALLY 1 FT AMOUNTS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SE CT AND
HILLS OF SUFFOLK COUNTY.

IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY WET SNOW COMBINED WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S...WILL LIKELY CAUSE
DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON FOR LI AND CT.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT.

SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING...ENDING NEAR 17-18Z FOR THE CITY
TERMINALS...AND ENDING BY AROUND 21Z OVER KGON.

IFR TO MVFR CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SNOW ENDS.

N WINDS BACK NW THIS AFTN. GUSTS 25-30KT THRU AT LEAST MID-
AFTN...DIMINISHING LATE.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STARTING 1430Z:
KSWF/TEB...TRACE
KEWR...TRACE
KHPN...1 INCH
KLGA...1-2 INCHES
KJFK...2 INCHES
KBDR...2-3 INCHES
KISP...3 INCHES
KGON...4 INCHES


   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MIGHT OCCUR AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
THAN FORECAST. TEMPO MVFR CIGS 20-21Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS MAY END
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE
DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST WINDS AND WAVES ON TRACK.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE MAY BE
SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO THIS
EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND
BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO
TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SNOWFALL WILL WIND DOWN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS LI AND CT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ006>008-010>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005-
     009.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075-
     176-178.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ177-
     179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 051549
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1049 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY.
LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST SOUTHEAST OF 40/70
LAT/LON TROUGH MIDDAY...THEN CONTINUING TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL END VERY SHORTLY
OVER THE FAR NW ZONES...AND SHOULD END NEAR NOON FOR THE
NE NJ/NYC/LOWER HUD WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH POSSIBLE THERE.

ACROSS LI/CT...HEAVY WET SNOW BANDING ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
LOW...JUST EAST OF THE NYC METRO...WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE NE OF
LI/CT THROUGH THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCH PER HOUR ARE OCCURRING UNDER THIS BAND AS IT PUSHES EAST.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
LI AND CT...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST. BASED ON 4 TO 7 INCHES THAT
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS LI/CT...A GENERAL 6 TO 10 INCHES OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA...WITH LOCALLY 1 FT AMOUNTS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SE CT AND
HILLS OF SUFFOLK COUNTY.

IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY WET SNOW COMBINED WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S...WILL LIKELY CAUSE
DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON FOR LI AND CT.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT.

SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING...ENDING NEAR 17-18Z FOR THE CITY
TERMINALS...AND ENDING BY AROUND 21Z OVER KGON.

IFR TO MVFR CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SNOW ENDS.

N WINDS BACK NW THIS AFTN. GUSTS 25-30KT THRU AT LEAST MID-
AFTN...DIMINISHING LATE.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STARTING 1430Z:
KSWF/TEB...TRACE
KEWR...TRACE
KHPN...1 INCH
KLGA...1-2 INCHES
KJFK...2 INCHES
KBDR...2-3 INCHES
KISP...3 INCHES
KGON...4 INCHES


   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MIGHT OCCUR AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
THAN FORECAST. TEMPO MVFR CIGS 20-21Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS MAY END
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE
DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST WINDS AND WAVES ON TRACK.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE MAY BE
SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO THIS
EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND
BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO
TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SNOWFALL WILL WIND DOWN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS LI AND CT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ006>008-010>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005-
     009.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075-
     176-178.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ177-
     179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 051549
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1049 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY.
LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST SOUTHEAST OF 40/70
LAT/LON TROUGH MIDDAY...THEN CONTINUING TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL END VERY SHORTLY
OVER THE FAR NW ZONES...AND SHOULD END NEAR NOON FOR THE
NE NJ/NYC/LOWER HUD WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH POSSIBLE THERE.

ACROSS LI/CT...HEAVY WET SNOW BANDING ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
LOW...JUST EAST OF THE NYC METRO...WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE NE OF
LI/CT THROUGH THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCH PER HOUR ARE OCCURRING UNDER THIS BAND AS IT PUSHES EAST.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
LI AND CT...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST. BASED ON 4 TO 7 INCHES THAT
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS LI/CT...A GENERAL 6 TO 10 INCHES OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA...WITH LOCALLY 1 FT AMOUNTS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SE CT AND
HILLS OF SUFFOLK COUNTY.

IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY WET SNOW COMBINED WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S...WILL LIKELY CAUSE
DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON FOR LI AND CT.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT.

SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING...ENDING NEAR 17-18Z FOR THE CITY
TERMINALS...AND ENDING BY AROUND 21Z OVER KGON.

IFR TO MVFR CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SNOW ENDS.

N WINDS BACK NW THIS AFTN. GUSTS 25-30KT THRU AT LEAST MID-
AFTN...DIMINISHING LATE.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STARTING 1430Z:
KSWF/TEB...TRACE
KEWR...TRACE
KHPN...1 INCH
KLGA...1-2 INCHES
KJFK...2 INCHES
KBDR...2-3 INCHES
KISP...3 INCHES
KGON...4 INCHES


   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MIGHT OCCUR AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
THAN FORECAST. TEMPO MVFR CIGS 20-21Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS MAY END
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE
DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST WINDS AND WAVES ON TRACK.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE MAY BE
SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO THIS
EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND
BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO
TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SNOWFALL WILL WIND DOWN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS LI AND CT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ006>008-010>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005-
     009.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075-
     176-178.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ177-
     179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 051459 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
959 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY.
LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS APPROX 150 MILES SOUTH OF
MONTAUK 14Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND
DEEPEN FURTHER THIS MORNING. PCPN TYPE IS NOW SNOW FOR ALL AREAS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. SNOW WILL END VERY SHORTLY OVER THE FAR
NW ZONES...AND SHOULD END NEAR NOON FOR THE CITY/METRO AREA...AND
FINALLY SHIFT EAST OUT THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN.

BASED ON OBS AND RADAR TRENDS...HAVE EXPANDED WINTER STORM WARNING
WESTWARD TO COVER NASSAU COUNTY AS WELL AS NEW HAVEN AND FAIRFIELD
COUNTIES.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT.

SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING...ENDING NEAR 17-18Z FOR THE CITY
TERMINALS...AND ENDING BY AROUND 21Z OVER KGON.

IFR TO MVFR CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SNOW ENDS.

N WINDS BACK NW THIS AFTN. GUSTS 25-30KT THRU AT LEAST MID-
AFTN...DIMINISHING LATE.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STARTING 1430Z:
KSWF/TEB...TRACE
KEWR...TRACE
KHPN...1 INCH
KLGA...1-2 INCHES
KJFK...2 INCHES
KBDR...2-3 INCHES
KISP...3 INCHES
KGON...4 INCHES


   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MIGHT OCCUR AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
THAN FORECAST. TEMPO MVFR CIGS 20-21Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS MAY END
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE
DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST WINDS AND WAVES ON TRACK. MINOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE WATERS FOR TODAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE
PASSING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE
MAY BE SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND
BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO
TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TODAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF A TENTH NORTH AND WEST TO JUST UNDER AN
INCH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND
FALLS AS RAIN AND SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...THE ALL SNOW INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ006>008-010>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005-
     009.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075-
     176-178.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ177-
     179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 051459
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
959 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY.
LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS APPROX 150 MILES SOUTH OF
MONTAUK 14Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND
DEEPEN FURTHER THIS MORNING. PCPN TYPE IS NOW SNOW FOR ALL AREAS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. SNOW WILL END VERY SHORTLY OVER THE FAR
NW ZONES...AND SHOULD END NEAR NOON FOR THE CITY/METRO AREA...AND
FINALLY SHIFT EAST OUT THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN.

BASED ON OBS AND RADAR TRENDS...HAVE EXPANDED WINTER STORM WARNING
WESTWARD TO COVER NASSAU COUNTY AS WELL AS NEW HAVEN AND MIDDLESEX
COUNTIES.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT.

SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING...ENDING NEAR 17-18Z FOR THE CITY
TERMINALS...AND ENDING BY AROUND 21Z OVER KGON.

IFR TO MVFR CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SNOW ENDS.

N WINDS BACK NW THIS AFTN. GUSTS 25-30KT THRU AT LEAST MID-
AFTN...DIMINISHING LATE.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STARTING 1430Z:
KSWF/TEB...TRACE
KEWR...TRACE
KHPN...1 INCH
KLGA...1-2 INCHES
KJFK...2 INCHES
KBDR...2-3 INCHES
KISP...3 INCHES
KGON...4 INCHES


   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MIGHT OCCUR AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
THAN FORECAST. TEMPO MVFR CIGS 20-21Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS MAY END
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE
DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST WINDS AND WAVES ON TRACK. MINOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE WATERS FOR TODAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE
PASSING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE
MAY BE SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND
BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO
TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TODAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF A TENTH NORTH AND WEST TO JUST UNDER AN
INCH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND
FALLS AS RAIN AND SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...THE ALL SNOW INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ006>008-010>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005-
     009.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075-
     176-178.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ177-
     179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 051459 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
959 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY.
LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS APPROX 150 MILES SOUTH OF
MONTAUK 14Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND
DEEPEN FURTHER THIS MORNING. PCPN TYPE IS NOW SNOW FOR ALL AREAS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. SNOW WILL END VERY SHORTLY OVER THE FAR
NW ZONES...AND SHOULD END NEAR NOON FOR THE CITY/METRO AREA...AND
FINALLY SHIFT EAST OUT THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN.

BASED ON OBS AND RADAR TRENDS...HAVE EXPANDED WINTER STORM WARNING
WESTWARD TO COVER NASSAU COUNTY AS WELL AS NEW HAVEN AND FAIRFIELD
COUNTIES.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT.

SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING...ENDING NEAR 17-18Z FOR THE CITY
TERMINALS...AND ENDING BY AROUND 21Z OVER KGON.

IFR TO MVFR CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SNOW ENDS.

N WINDS BACK NW THIS AFTN. GUSTS 25-30KT THRU AT LEAST MID-
AFTN...DIMINISHING LATE.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STARTING 1430Z:
KSWF/TEB...TRACE
KEWR...TRACE
KHPN...1 INCH
KLGA...1-2 INCHES
KJFK...2 INCHES
KBDR...2-3 INCHES
KISP...3 INCHES
KGON...4 INCHES


   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MIGHT OCCUR AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
THAN FORECAST. TEMPO MVFR CIGS 20-21Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS MAY END
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE
DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST WINDS AND WAVES ON TRACK. MINOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE WATERS FOR TODAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE
PASSING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE
MAY BE SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND
BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO
TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TODAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF A TENTH NORTH AND WEST TO JUST UNDER AN
INCH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND
FALLS AS RAIN AND SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...THE ALL SNOW INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ006>008-010>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005-
     009.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075-
     176-178.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ177-
     179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 051459 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
959 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY.
LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS APPROX 150 MILES SOUTH OF
MONTAUK 14Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND
DEEPEN FURTHER THIS MORNING. PCPN TYPE IS NOW SNOW FOR ALL AREAS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. SNOW WILL END VERY SHORTLY OVER THE FAR
NW ZONES...AND SHOULD END NEAR NOON FOR THE CITY/METRO AREA...AND
FINALLY SHIFT EAST OUT THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN.

BASED ON OBS AND RADAR TRENDS...HAVE EXPANDED WINTER STORM WARNING
WESTWARD TO COVER NASSAU COUNTY AS WELL AS NEW HAVEN AND FAIRFIELD
COUNTIES.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT.

SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING...ENDING NEAR 17-18Z FOR THE CITY
TERMINALS...AND ENDING BY AROUND 21Z OVER KGON.

IFR TO MVFR CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SNOW ENDS.

N WINDS BACK NW THIS AFTN. GUSTS 25-30KT THRU AT LEAST MID-
AFTN...DIMINISHING LATE.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STARTING 1430Z:
KSWF/TEB...TRACE
KEWR...TRACE
KHPN...1 INCH
KLGA...1-2 INCHES
KJFK...2 INCHES
KBDR...2-3 INCHES
KISP...3 INCHES
KGON...4 INCHES


   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MIGHT OCCUR AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
THAN FORECAST. TEMPO MVFR CIGS 20-21Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS MAY END
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE
DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST WINDS AND WAVES ON TRACK. MINOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE WATERS FOR TODAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE
PASSING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE
MAY BE SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND
BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO
TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TODAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF A TENTH NORTH AND WEST TO JUST UNDER AN
INCH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND
FALLS AS RAIN AND SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...THE ALL SNOW INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ006>008-010>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005-
     009.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075-
     176-178.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ177-
     179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 051459
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
959 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY.
LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS APPROX 150 MILES SOUTH OF
MONTAUK 14Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND
DEEPEN FURTHER THIS MORNING. PCPN TYPE IS NOW SNOW FOR ALL AREAS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. SNOW WILL END VERY SHORTLY OVER THE FAR
NW ZONES...AND SHOULD END NEAR NOON FOR THE CITY/METRO AREA...AND
FINALLY SHIFT EAST OUT THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN.

BASED ON OBS AND RADAR TRENDS...HAVE EXPANDED WINTER STORM WARNING
WESTWARD TO COVER NASSAU COUNTY AS WELL AS NEW HAVEN AND MIDDLESEX
COUNTIES.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT.

SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING...ENDING NEAR 17-18Z FOR THE CITY
TERMINALS...AND ENDING BY AROUND 21Z OVER KGON.

IFR TO MVFR CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SNOW ENDS.

N WINDS BACK NW THIS AFTN. GUSTS 25-30KT THRU AT LEAST MID-
AFTN...DIMINISHING LATE.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STARTING 1430Z:
KSWF/TEB...TRACE
KEWR...TRACE
KHPN...1 INCH
KLGA...1-2 INCHES
KJFK...2 INCHES
KBDR...2-3 INCHES
KISP...3 INCHES
KGON...4 INCHES


   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MIGHT OCCUR AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
THAN FORECAST. TEMPO MVFR CIGS 20-21Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS MAY END
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE
DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST WINDS AND WAVES ON TRACK. MINOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE WATERS FOR TODAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE
PASSING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE
MAY BE SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND
BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO
TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TODAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF A TENTH NORTH AND WEST TO JUST UNDER AN
INCH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND
FALLS AS RAIN AND SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...THE ALL SNOW INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ006>008-010>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005-
     009.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075-
     176-178.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ177-
     179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 051459
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
959 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY.
LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS APPROX 150 MILES SOUTH OF
MONTAUK 14Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND
DEEPEN FURTHER THIS MORNING. PCPN TYPE IS NOW SNOW FOR ALL AREAS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. SNOW WILL END VERY SHORTLY OVER THE FAR
NW ZONES...AND SHOULD END NEAR NOON FOR THE CITY/METRO AREA...AND
FINALLY SHIFT EAST OUT THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN.

BASED ON OBS AND RADAR TRENDS...HAVE EXPANDED WINTER STORM WARNING
WESTWARD TO COVER NASSAU COUNTY AS WELL AS NEW HAVEN AND MIDDLESEX
COUNTIES.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT.

SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING...ENDING NEAR 17-18Z FOR THE CITY
TERMINALS...AND ENDING BY AROUND 21Z OVER KGON.

IFR TO MVFR CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SNOW ENDS.

N WINDS BACK NW THIS AFTN. GUSTS 25-30KT THRU AT LEAST MID-
AFTN...DIMINISHING LATE.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STARTING 1430Z:
KSWF/TEB...TRACE
KEWR...TRACE
KHPN...1 INCH
KLGA...1-2 INCHES
KJFK...2 INCHES
KBDR...2-3 INCHES
KISP...3 INCHES
KGON...4 INCHES


   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MIGHT OCCUR AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
THAN FORECAST. TEMPO MVFR CIGS 20-21Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS MAY END
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE
DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST WINDS AND WAVES ON TRACK. MINOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE WATERS FOR TODAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE
PASSING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE
MAY BE SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND
BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO
TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TODAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF A TENTH NORTH AND WEST TO JUST UNDER AN
INCH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND
FALLS AS RAIN AND SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...THE ALL SNOW INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ006>008-010>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005-
     009.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075-
     176-178.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ177-
     179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 051232
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
732 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY.
LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS EAST OF THE DELMARVA AT
11Z...AND CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST...AND DEEPENS
FARTHER THIS MORNING. SNOW WAS ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE TWIN
FORKS WHERE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING SHORTLY.
BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW WERE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY
EAST OF NYC. AND...A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE REPORTED IN
HUDSON AND BERGEN COUNTIES. THE LOW DEEPENS AND PASSES NEAR THE
40/70 AROUND MIDDAY AT AROUND 1002MB AND DEEPENING. TEMPERATURES
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT.

PCPN HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AT ALL TERMINALS AS EXPECTED. INTENSITY
WILL BE HEAVIEST BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AT THE CITY TERMINALS AND
KBDR AND 14Z TO 18Z AT KISP/KGON. EXPECT 1-2" RATES PER
HOUR...THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE MOST LIKELY AT KGON. IFR TO
LIFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...THEN LIFT TO MVFR BRIEFLY
AND BACK TO VFR AS SNOW TAPERS OFF W-E DURING THE AFTN.

DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDS THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
NYC METRO TERMINALS AND KBDR...3-5 INCHES
KISP/KGON...5-7 INCHES.
KSWF...2-3 INCHES.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR/LIFR THROUGH 15Z OR SO. RETURN TO VFR
MAY BE +/-1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR/LIFR THROUGH 15Z OR SO. RETURN TO VFR
MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR/LIFR THROUGH 15Z OR SO. RETURN TO VFR
MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR/LIFR THROUGH 15Z OR SO. RETURN TO VFR
MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR/LIFR THROUGH 15Z OR SO. RETURN TO VFR
MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR/LIFR THROUGH 18Z OR SO. RETURN TO VFR
MAY BE +/-1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE
DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST WINDS AND WAVES ON TRACK. MINOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE WATERS FOR TODAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE
PASSING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE
MAY BE SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND
BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO
TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TODAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF A TENTH NORTH AND WEST TO JUST UNDER AN
INCH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND
FALLS AS RAIN AND SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...THE ALL SNOW INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ007-
     008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ005-006-
     009-010.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075-
     176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 051232
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
732 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY.
LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS EAST OF THE DELMARVA AT
11Z...AND CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST...AND DEEPENS
FARTHER THIS MORNING. SNOW WAS ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE TWIN
FORKS WHERE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING SHORTLY.
BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW WERE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY
EAST OF NYC. AND...A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE REPORTED IN
HUDSON AND BERGEN COUNTIES. THE LOW DEEPENS AND PASSES NEAR THE
40/70 AROUND MIDDAY AT AROUND 1002MB AND DEEPENING. TEMPERATURES
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT.

PCPN HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AT ALL TERMINALS AS EXPECTED. INTENSITY
WILL BE HEAVIEST BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AT THE CITY TERMINALS AND
KBDR AND 14Z TO 18Z AT KISP/KGON. EXPECT 1-2" RATES PER
HOUR...THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE MOST LIKELY AT KGON. IFR TO
LIFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...THEN LIFT TO MVFR BRIEFLY
AND BACK TO VFR AS SNOW TAPERS OFF W-E DURING THE AFTN.

DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDS THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
NYC METRO TERMINALS AND KBDR...3-5 INCHES
KISP/KGON...5-7 INCHES.
KSWF...2-3 INCHES.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR/LIFR THROUGH 15Z OR SO. RETURN TO VFR
MAY BE +/-1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR/LIFR THROUGH 15Z OR SO. RETURN TO VFR
MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR/LIFR THROUGH 15Z OR SO. RETURN TO VFR
MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR/LIFR THROUGH 15Z OR SO. RETURN TO VFR
MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR/LIFR THROUGH 15Z OR SO. RETURN TO VFR
MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR/LIFR THROUGH 18Z OR SO. RETURN TO VFR
MAY BE +/-1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE
DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST WINDS AND WAVES ON TRACK. MINOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE WATERS FOR TODAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE
PASSING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE
MAY BE SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND
BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO
TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TODAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF A TENTH NORTH AND WEST TO JUST UNDER AN
INCH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND
FALLS AS RAIN AND SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...THE ALL SNOW INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ007-
     008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ005-006-
     009-010.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075-
     176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 051232
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
732 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY.
LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS EAST OF THE DELMARVA AT
11Z...AND CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST...AND DEEPENS
FARTHER THIS MORNING. SNOW WAS ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE TWIN
FORKS WHERE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING SHORTLY.
BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW WERE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY
EAST OF NYC. AND...A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE REPORTED IN
HUDSON AND BERGEN COUNTIES. THE LOW DEEPENS AND PASSES NEAR THE
40/70 AROUND MIDDAY AT AROUND 1002MB AND DEEPENING. TEMPERATURES
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT.

PCPN HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AT ALL TERMINALS AS EXPECTED. INTENSITY
WILL BE HEAVIEST BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AT THE CITY TERMINALS AND
KBDR AND 14Z TO 18Z AT KISP/KGON. EXPECT 1-2" RATES PER
HOUR...THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE MOST LIKELY AT KGON. IFR TO
LIFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...THEN LIFT TO MVFR BRIEFLY
AND BACK TO VFR AS SNOW TAPERS OFF W-E DURING THE AFTN.

DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDS THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
NYC METRO TERMINALS AND KBDR...3-5 INCHES
KISP/KGON...5-7 INCHES.
KSWF...2-3 INCHES.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR/LIFR THROUGH 15Z OR SO. RETURN TO VFR
MAY BE +/-1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR/LIFR THROUGH 15Z OR SO. RETURN TO VFR
MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR/LIFR THROUGH 15Z OR SO. RETURN TO VFR
MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR/LIFR THROUGH 15Z OR SO. RETURN TO VFR
MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR/LIFR THROUGH 15Z OR SO. RETURN TO VFR
MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR/LIFR THROUGH 18Z OR SO. RETURN TO VFR
MAY BE +/-1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE
DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST WINDS AND WAVES ON TRACK. MINOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE WATERS FOR TODAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE
PASSING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE
MAY BE SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND
BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO
TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TODAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF A TENTH NORTH AND WEST TO JUST UNDER AN
INCH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND
FALLS AS RAIN AND SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...THE ALL SNOW INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ007-
     008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ005-006-
     009-010.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075-
     176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 051155
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
655 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY.
LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS EAST OF THE DELMARVA AT
11Z...AND CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST...AND DEEPENS
FARTHER THIS MORNING. SNOW WAS ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE TWIN
FORKS WHERE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING SHORTLY.
BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW WERE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY
EAST OF NYC. AND...A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE REPORTED IN
HUDSON AND BERGEN COUNTIES. THE LOW DEEPENS AND PASSES NEAR THE
40/70 AROUND MIDDAY AT AROUND 1002MB AND DEEPENING. TEMPERATURES
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT.

PCPN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO CHANGEOVER AT NYC TERMINALS AS OF 08Z.
THIS IS A LITTLE LATER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...SO HAVE DECREASED
SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY. THE CHANGEOVER WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY 12Z.
INTENSITY WILL BE HEAVIEST BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...MAINLY E OF
NYC...WITH 1-2" RATES PER HOUR...THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE MOST
LIKELY AT KGON. CONDS WILL DROP TO IFR BY 12Z AND EVEN LIFR AT KGON
AND PERHAPS KISP DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LATER THIS MORNING.

SNOW THEN TAPERS OFF FROM W-E DURING THE AFTN WITH VFR CONDS
RETURNING.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
NYC METRO TERMINALS AND KBDR...3-5 INCHES
KISP/KGON...5-7 INCHES.
KSWF...2-3 INCHES.

WINDSPEEDS MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT OTHERWISE...MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z WITH LIFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11Z AND
15Z. RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/-1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z WITH LIFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11Z AND
15Z. RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z WITH LOW CHC OF LIFR 12Z AND 15Z.
RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z WITH LOW CHC OF LIFR 12Z AND 15Z.
RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z WITH LOW CHC OF LIFR 12Z AND 15Z.
RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z...THEN LIFR LIKELY THROUGH 18Z OR
SO. RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/-1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
NYC METRO TERMINALS...3-5 INCHES
KISP/KGON...6-8 INCHES.
KSWF...2-4 INCHES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.TONIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE
DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST WINDS AND WAVES ON TRACK. MINOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE WATERS FOR TODAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE
PASSING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE
MAY BE SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND
BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO
TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TODAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF A TENTH NORTH AND WEST TO JUST UNDER AN
INCH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND
FALLS AS RAIN AND SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...THE ALL SNOW INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ007-
     008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ005-006-
     009-010.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075-
     176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 051155
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
655 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY.
LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS EAST OF THE DELMARVA AT
11Z...AND CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST...AND DEEPENS
FARTHER THIS MORNING. SNOW WAS ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE TWIN
FORKS WHERE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING SHORTLY.
BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW WERE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY
EAST OF NYC. AND...A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE REPORTED IN
HUDSON AND BERGEN COUNTIES. THE LOW DEEPENS AND PASSES NEAR THE
40/70 AROUND MIDDAY AT AROUND 1002MB AND DEEPENING. TEMPERATURES
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT.

PCPN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO CHANGEOVER AT NYC TERMINALS AS OF 08Z.
THIS IS A LITTLE LATER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...SO HAVE DECREASED
SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY. THE CHANGEOVER WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY 12Z.
INTENSITY WILL BE HEAVIEST BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...MAINLY E OF
NYC...WITH 1-2" RATES PER HOUR...THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE MOST
LIKELY AT KGON. CONDS WILL DROP TO IFR BY 12Z AND EVEN LIFR AT KGON
AND PERHAPS KISP DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LATER THIS MORNING.

SNOW THEN TAPERS OFF FROM W-E DURING THE AFTN WITH VFR CONDS
RETURNING.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
NYC METRO TERMINALS AND KBDR...3-5 INCHES
KISP/KGON...5-7 INCHES.
KSWF...2-3 INCHES.

WINDSPEEDS MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT OTHERWISE...MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z WITH LIFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11Z AND
15Z. RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/-1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z WITH LIFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11Z AND
15Z. RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z WITH LOW CHC OF LIFR 12Z AND 15Z.
RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z WITH LOW CHC OF LIFR 12Z AND 15Z.
RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z WITH LOW CHC OF LIFR 12Z AND 15Z.
RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z...THEN LIFR LIKELY THROUGH 18Z OR
SO. RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/-1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
NYC METRO TERMINALS...3-5 INCHES
KISP/KGON...6-8 INCHES.
KSWF...2-4 INCHES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.TONIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE
DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST WINDS AND WAVES ON TRACK. MINOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE WATERS FOR TODAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE
PASSING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE
MAY BE SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND
BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO
TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TODAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF A TENTH NORTH AND WEST TO JUST UNDER AN
INCH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND
FALLS AS RAIN AND SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...THE ALL SNOW INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ007-
     008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ005-006-
     009-010.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075-
     176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 051155
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
655 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY.
LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS EAST OF THE DELMARVA AT
11Z...AND CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST...AND DEEPENS
FARTHER THIS MORNING. SNOW WAS ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE TWIN
FORKS WHERE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING SHORTLY.
BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW WERE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY
EAST OF NYC. AND...A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE REPORTED IN
HUDSON AND BERGEN COUNTIES. THE LOW DEEPENS AND PASSES NEAR THE
40/70 AROUND MIDDAY AT AROUND 1002MB AND DEEPENING. TEMPERATURES
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT.

PCPN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO CHANGEOVER AT NYC TERMINALS AS OF 08Z.
THIS IS A LITTLE LATER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...SO HAVE DECREASED
SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY. THE CHANGEOVER WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY 12Z.
INTENSITY WILL BE HEAVIEST BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...MAINLY E OF
NYC...WITH 1-2" RATES PER HOUR...THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE MOST
LIKELY AT KGON. CONDS WILL DROP TO IFR BY 12Z AND EVEN LIFR AT KGON
AND PERHAPS KISP DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LATER THIS MORNING.

SNOW THEN TAPERS OFF FROM W-E DURING THE AFTN WITH VFR CONDS
RETURNING.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
NYC METRO TERMINALS AND KBDR...3-5 INCHES
KISP/KGON...5-7 INCHES.
KSWF...2-3 INCHES.

WINDSPEEDS MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT OTHERWISE...MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z WITH LIFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11Z AND
15Z. RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/-1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z WITH LIFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11Z AND
15Z. RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z WITH LOW CHC OF LIFR 12Z AND 15Z.
RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z WITH LOW CHC OF LIFR 12Z AND 15Z.
RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z WITH LOW CHC OF LIFR 12Z AND 15Z.
RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z...THEN LIFR LIKELY THROUGH 18Z OR
SO. RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/-1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
NYC METRO TERMINALS...3-5 INCHES
KISP/KGON...6-8 INCHES.
KSWF...2-4 INCHES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.TONIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE
DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST WINDS AND WAVES ON TRACK. MINOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE WATERS FOR TODAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE
PASSING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE
MAY BE SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND
BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO
TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TODAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF A TENTH NORTH AND WEST TO JUST UNDER AN
INCH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND
FALLS AS RAIN AND SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...THE ALL SNOW INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ007-
     008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ005-006-
     009-010.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075-
     176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 050948
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
448 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY.
LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON TRACK
WITH THIS WAVE STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS MORNING...PASSING NEAR THE 40/70
AROUND MIDDAY AT AROUND 1002MB AND DEEPENING. TRANSITION TO SNOW
NEAR ON TRACK WITH TIMING...WITH SOME AREAS ALONG THE COAST
REMAINING RAIN WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT REMAINING IN PLACE. DEW POINTS
WERE REMAINING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER TO MID 30S WITH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH THE PRECIPITATION NOT LOWERING TEMPERATURES
AS MUCH. SO...SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AND
THEN HOW MUCH WILL FALL AND ACCUMULATE. WITH THE LATER ONSET OF SNOW
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TWEAKED SNOW
TOTALS DOWNWARD...HOWEVER...STILL REACHING WARNING AND ADVISORY
LEVELS.

ONLY OTHER MINOR CHANGE IS A LITTLE QUICKER END TO THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT.

PCPN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO CHANGEOVER AT NYC TERMINALS AS OF 08Z.
THIS IS A LITTLE LATER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...SO HAVE DECREASED
SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY. THE CHANGEOVER WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY 12Z.
INTENSITY WILL BE HEAVIEST BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...MAINLY E OF
NYC...WITH 1-2" RATES PER HOUR...THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE MOST
LIKELY AT KGON. CONDS WILL DROP TO IFR BY 12Z AND EVEN LIFR AT KGON
AND PERHAPS KISP DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LATER THIS MORNING.

SNOW THEN TAPERS OFF FROM W-E DURING THE AFTN WITH VFR CONDS
RETURNING.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
NYC METRO TERMINALS AND KBDR...3-5 INCHES
KISP/KGON...5-7 INCHES.
KSWF...2-3 INCHES.

WINDSPEEDS MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT OTHERWISE...MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z WITH LIFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11Z AND
15Z. RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/-1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z WITH LIFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11Z AND
15Z. RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z WITH LOW CHC OF LIFR 12Z AND 15Z.
RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z WITH LOW CHC OF LIFR 12Z AND 15Z.
RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z WITH LOW CHC OF LIFR 12Z AND 15Z.
RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z...THEN LIFR LIKELY THROUGH 18Z OR
SO. RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/-1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
NYC METRO TERMINALS...3-5 INCHES
KISP/KGON...6-8 INCHES.
KSWF...2-4 INCHES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.TONIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE
DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS
ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE MAY BE SOME
SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO THIS
EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND
BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO
TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TODAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF A TENTH NORTH AND WEST TO JUST UNDER AN
INCH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND
FALLS AS RAIN AND SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...THE ALL SNOW INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ007-
     008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ005-006-
     009-010.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075-
     176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 050948
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
448 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY.
LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON TRACK
WITH THIS WAVE STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS MORNING...PASSING NEAR THE 40/70
AROUND MIDDAY AT AROUND 1002MB AND DEEPENING. TRANSITION TO SNOW
NEAR ON TRACK WITH TIMING...WITH SOME AREAS ALONG THE COAST
REMAINING RAIN WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT REMAINING IN PLACE. DEW POINTS
WERE REMAINING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER TO MID 30S WITH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH THE PRECIPITATION NOT LOWERING TEMPERATURES
AS MUCH. SO...SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AND
THEN HOW MUCH WILL FALL AND ACCUMULATE. WITH THE LATER ONSET OF SNOW
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TWEAKED SNOW
TOTALS DOWNWARD...HOWEVER...STILL REACHING WARNING AND ADVISORY
LEVELS.

ONLY OTHER MINOR CHANGE IS A LITTLE QUICKER END TO THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT.

PCPN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO CHANGEOVER AT NYC TERMINALS AS OF 08Z.
THIS IS A LITTLE LATER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...SO HAVE DECREASED
SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY. THE CHANGEOVER WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY 12Z.
INTENSITY WILL BE HEAVIEST BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...MAINLY E OF
NYC...WITH 1-2" RATES PER HOUR...THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE MOST
LIKELY AT KGON. CONDS WILL DROP TO IFR BY 12Z AND EVEN LIFR AT KGON
AND PERHAPS KISP DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LATER THIS MORNING.

SNOW THEN TAPERS OFF FROM W-E DURING THE AFTN WITH VFR CONDS
RETURNING.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
NYC METRO TERMINALS AND KBDR...3-5 INCHES
KISP/KGON...5-7 INCHES.
KSWF...2-3 INCHES.

WINDSPEEDS MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT OTHERWISE...MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z WITH LIFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11Z AND
15Z. RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/-1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z WITH LIFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11Z AND
15Z. RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z WITH LOW CHC OF LIFR 12Z AND 15Z.
RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z WITH LOW CHC OF LIFR 12Z AND 15Z.
RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z WITH LOW CHC OF LIFR 12Z AND 15Z.
RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z...THEN LIFR LIKELY THROUGH 18Z OR
SO. RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/-1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
NYC METRO TERMINALS...3-5 INCHES
KISP/KGON...6-8 INCHES.
KSWF...2-4 INCHES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.TONIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE
DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS
ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE MAY BE SOME
SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO THIS
EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND
BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO
TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TODAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF A TENTH NORTH AND WEST TO JUST UNDER AN
INCH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND
FALLS AS RAIN AND SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...THE ALL SNOW INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ007-
     008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ005-006-
     009-010.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075-
     176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 050948
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
448 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY.
LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON TRACK
WITH THIS WAVE STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS MORNING...PASSING NEAR THE 40/70
AROUND MIDDAY AT AROUND 1002MB AND DEEPENING. TRANSITION TO SNOW
NEAR ON TRACK WITH TIMING...WITH SOME AREAS ALONG THE COAST
REMAINING RAIN WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT REMAINING IN PLACE. DEW POINTS
WERE REMAINING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER TO MID 30S WITH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH THE PRECIPITATION NOT LOWERING TEMPERATURES
AS MUCH. SO...SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AND
THEN HOW MUCH WILL FALL AND ACCUMULATE. WITH THE LATER ONSET OF SNOW
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TWEAKED SNOW
TOTALS DOWNWARD...HOWEVER...STILL REACHING WARNING AND ADVISORY
LEVELS.

ONLY OTHER MINOR CHANGE IS A LITTLE QUICKER END TO THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT.

PCPN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO CHANGEOVER AT NYC TERMINALS AS OF 08Z.
THIS IS A LITTLE LATER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...SO HAVE DECREASED
SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY. THE CHANGEOVER WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY 12Z.
INTENSITY WILL BE HEAVIEST BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...MAINLY E OF
NYC...WITH 1-2" RATES PER HOUR...THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE MOST
LIKELY AT KGON. CONDS WILL DROP TO IFR BY 12Z AND EVEN LIFR AT KGON
AND PERHAPS KISP DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LATER THIS MORNING.

SNOW THEN TAPERS OFF FROM W-E DURING THE AFTN WITH VFR CONDS
RETURNING.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
NYC METRO TERMINALS AND KBDR...3-5 INCHES
KISP/KGON...5-7 INCHES.
KSWF...2-3 INCHES.

WINDSPEEDS MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT OTHERWISE...MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z WITH LIFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11Z AND
15Z. RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/-1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z WITH LIFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11Z AND
15Z. RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z WITH LOW CHC OF LIFR 12Z AND 15Z.
RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z WITH LOW CHC OF LIFR 12Z AND 15Z.
RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z WITH LOW CHC OF LIFR 12Z AND 15Z.
RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR BY 12Z...THEN LIFR LIKELY THROUGH 18Z OR
SO. RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/-1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
NYC METRO TERMINALS...3-5 INCHES
KISP/KGON...6-8 INCHES.
KSWF...2-4 INCHES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.TONIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE
DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS
ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE MAY BE SOME
SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO THIS
EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND
BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO
TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TODAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF A TENTH NORTH AND WEST TO JUST UNDER AN
INCH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND
FALLS AS RAIN AND SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...THE ALL SNOW INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ007-
     008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ005-006-
     009-010.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075-
     176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 050919
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
419 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY.
LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON TRACK
WITH THIS WAVE STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS MORNING...PASSING NEAR THE 40/70
AROUND MIDDAY AT AROUND 1002MB AND DEEPENING. TRANSITION TO SNOW
NEAR ON TRACK WITH TIMING...WITH SOME AREAS ALONG THE COAST
REMAINING RAIN WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT REMAINING IN PLACE. DEW POINTS
WERE REMAINING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER TO MID 30S WITH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH THE PRECIPITATION NOT LOWERING TEMPERATURES
AS MUCH. SO...SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AND
THEN HOW MUCH WILL FALL AND ACCUMULATE. WITH THE LATER ONSET OF SNOW
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TWEAKED SNOW
TOTALS DOWNWARD...HOWEVER...STILL REACHING WARNING AND ADVISORY
LEVELS.

ONLY OTHER MINOR CHANGE IS A LITTLE QUICKER END TO THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW BY 08Z OR SO
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BY AROUND 11Z. MVFR CONDS WILL
LOWER TO IFR AT ONSET OF SNOW...AND LIFR CONDS EXPECTED IN PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH CIGS LESS THAN 500 FT AND VSBYS
LESS THAN 1 MILE IS LIKELY FROM AROUND 10-16Z. CONDS GRADUALLY
LIFT TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW DEPARTS.

NE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N AND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT...THEN NW WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER TO 15-20 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
NYC METRO TERMINALS...3-5 INCHES
KISP/KGON...6-8 INCHES.
KSWF...2-4 INCHES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS
ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE MAY BE SOME
SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO THIS
EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND
BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO
TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TODAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF A TENTH NORTH AND WEST TO JUST UNDER AN
INCH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND
FALLS AS RAIN AND SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...THE ALL SNOW INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ007-
     008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ005-006-
     009-010.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075-
     176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 050546
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1246 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AND PASS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. FAIR WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE FOR SNOW DURING THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. A COLD AIR MASS WILL THEN BRING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ALL NEAR TERM HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SIGNALING POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
SNOWFALL AMTS PER HIGHER QPF AND AS COLDER/DRIER AIR FILTERS DOWN
INTO THE AREA ATTM...AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF FALLING PRECIP ALSO
HELPS LOWER TEMPS FURTHER OVERNIGHT...AND AS SOME FAIRLY STRONG
BANDING FEATURES PER 00Z NAM/RAP DEVELOP NEARBY LATE TONIGHT AND
SWING ACROSS. HAVE INCREASED AMTS AT LEAST AN INCH...AND MORE EAST
OF NYC. AMTS ACROSS SE CT AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN LONG ISLAND
SHOULD NOW FALL INTO THE 5-8 INCH RANGE...AND SO HAVE UPGRADED
EXISTING ADVYS TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS THERE.

THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES. FIRST IT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT AMTS UP TO 6 INCHES COULD FALL A LITTLE
FARTHER WEST INTO SW CT AND NASSAU COUNTY AS WELL. SECOND...IF
COLDER AIR TAKES LONGER TO REACH THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AMTS
COULD STILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW 6 INCHES THERE. FINALLY...A SHARP
BACK EDGE TO THE PRECIP SHIELD MEANS THAT PARTS OF ORANGE COUNTY
COULD STILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
THAT THE SE PORTION COULD STILL SEE AT LEAST 2-3 INCHES...EXPANDED
ADVYS TO THERE AND NEARBY WRN PASSAIC AS WELL.

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES PASS BY TO OUR SE ALONG A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE TWO WAVES WILL BRING PCPN TO
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. THE SECOND
WAVE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO SHIFT
THROUGH AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC LIFT COURTESY OF THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAVE TRENDED WEST WITH QPF OUTPUT.

TEMPS STILL WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD COLDER NAM WHICH USUALLY DOES
BETTER IN WINTERTIME PRECIP SITUATIONS.

SKIES THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOW TEMPS ARE A MAV/NAM
MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SFC HIPRES RIDGE EXTENDS NEWD INTO THE REGION SAT. DESPITE COLD
TEMPS ALOFT WITH H85 AROUND -8C...SW FLOW THRU THE LAYER SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING BRINGING HI TEMPS AOA 40F. ON SUN...AN UPR
LOW TRACKING ACROSS QUEBEC PROGGED TO DROP A CDFNT THRU DURING THE
DAY. THE CAA APPEARS TOO LATE ATTM TO HAVE AND IMPACT ON HI TEMPS.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK LIFT AND LIKELY TO BE SOME MID LVL
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT...THE SYS WILL BE BATTLING SUBSIDENCE. AS
A RESULT...AGREED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF A DRY FROPA. A
COUPLE OF QUESTIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST IS
DEEP LOW PRES WHICH IS SPAWNED OFF THE SERN ATLC COAST AND TRACKS
NEWD OVER THE OCEAN. THE GFS IS WAY OUT OF RANGE...WHILE THE ECMWF
DESPITE A SLGT EWD TREND WITH THE 12Z RUN REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
PERHAPS GRAZE THE TWIN FORKS. THIS STORM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
BECAUSE THE MODEL DROPS IT INTO THE 970S. STILL...ONLY VERY LOW
POPS FOR THIS STORM ATTM...WHICH ACTUALLY BLEEDS INTO THE NEXT SYS
WHICH APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE CWA. THIS ONE IS ROOTED IN
A BROAD H5 LOW WHICH SPINS INTO THE NERN CONUS AND ALLOWS LOW PRES
TO DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE. BASED ON THE GEFS...A PROG CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE CONSENSUS ATTM. OR IN GFS TERMS...A LOW
SLIGHTLY FURTHER S THAN THE OPERATIONAL 12Z RUN. POPS WERE
INCREASED INTO THE 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE MON THRU TUE. DID
MAINTAIN SOME RAIN CHCS WITH THE SNOW IN CASE THE FURTHER NWD SOLN
PANS OUT...BRINGING IN WARMER MARITIME AIR. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL LGT SNOW ON WED...BUT CAPPED
POPS AT 20 PERCENT DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. SUPERBLEND
TEMPS THU APPEAR GOOD WITH A CHILLY PATTERN IN PLACE. AN ARCTIC
SHOT POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW BY 08Z OR SO BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BY AROUND 11Z. MVFR CONDS WILL LOWER TO
IFR AT ONSET OF SNOW...AND LIFR CONDS EXPECTED IN PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH CIGS LESS THAN 500 FT AND VSBYS LESS
THAN 1 MILE IS LIKELY FROM AROUND 10-16Z. CONDS GRADUALLY LIFT TO
VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW DEPARTS.

NE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N AND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT...THEN NW WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER TO 15-20 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
NYC METRO TERMINALS...3-5 INCHES
KISP/KGON...6-8 INCHES.
KSWF...2-4 INCHES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. SCA CONDS WILL
INCREASE TO GALES ON THE OCEAN DURING FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...HAVE GONE
WITH SCA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. RAFT LEVELS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THEREFORE THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN FOR EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TREND TO BELOW SCA LATER ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUILDING IN. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SCA WILL BE MORE
PROBABLE IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES FCST
FOR MUCH OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...0.5 TO 1 INCH FOR NYC METRO
AND SW CT...AND 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES NORTH/WEST. PCPN STARTS OUT AS
RAIN...BUT SHOULD BE CHANGING TO SNOW FOR MOST SPOTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PCPN POSSIBLE LATE MON THRU TUE. MOST OF THAT
COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ005-006-
     009-010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ007-
     008-011-012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075-
     176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/JC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JC/GOODMAN





000
FXUS61 KOKX 050238
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
938 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AND PASS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. FAIR WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE FOR SNOW DURING THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. A COLD AIR MASS WILL THEN BRING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL NEAR TERM HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SIGNALING POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
SNOWFALL AMTS PER HIGHER QPF AND AS COLDER/DRIER AIR FILTERS DOWN
INTO THE AREA ATTM...AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF FALLING PRECIP
ALSO HELPS LOWER TEMPS FURTHER OVERNIGHT...AND AS SOME FAIRLY
STRONG BANDING FEATURES PER 00Z NAM/RAP DEVELOP NEARBY LATE
TONIGHT AND SWING ACROSS. HAVE INCREASED AMTS AT LEAST AN
INCH...AND MORE EAST OF NYC. AMTS ACROSS SE CT AND MUCH OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN LONG ISLAND SHOULD NOW FALL INTO THE 5-8 INCH
RANGE...AND SO HAVE UPGRADED EXISTING ADVYS TO WINTER STORM
WARNINGS THERE.

THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES. FIRST IT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT AMTS UP TO 6 INCHES COULD FALL A LITTLE
FARTHER WEST INTO SW CT AND NASSAU COUNTY AS WELL. SECOND...IF
COLDER AIR TAKES LONGER TO REACH THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AMTS
COULD STILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW 6 INCHES THERE. FINALLY...A SHARP
BACK EDGE TO THE PRECIP SHIELD MEANS THAT PARTS OF ORANGE COUNTY
COULD STILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
THAT THE SE PORTION COULD STILL SEE AT LEAST 2-3 INCHES...EXPANDED
ADVYS TO THERE AND NEARBY WRN PASSAIC AS WELL.

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES PASS BY TO OUR SE ALONG A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE TWO WAVES WILL BRING PCPN TO
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. THE SECOND
WAVE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO SHIFT
THROUGH AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC LIFT COURTESY OF THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAVE TRENDED WEST WITH QPF OUTPUT.

TEMPS STILL WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD COLDER NAM WHICH USUALLY DOES
BETTER IN WINTERTIME PRECIP SITUATIONS.

SKIES THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOW TEMPS ARE A MAV/NAM
MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SFC HIPRES RIDGE EXTENDS NEWD INTO THE REGION SAT. DESPITE COLD
TEMPS ALOFT WITH H85 AROUND -8C...SW FLOW THRU THE LAYER SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING BRINGING HI TEMPS AOA 40F. ON SUN...AN UPR
LOW TRACKING ACROSS QUEBEC PROGGED TO DROP A CDFNT THRU DURING THE
DAY. THE CAA APPEARS TOO LATE ATTM TO HAVE AND IMPACT ON HI TEMPS.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK LIFT AND LIKELY TO BE SOME MID LVL
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT...THE SYS WILL BE BATTLING SUBSIDENCE. AS
A RESULT...AGREED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF A DRY FROPA. A
COUPLE OF QUESTIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST IS
DEEP LOW PRES WHICH IS SPAWNED OFF THE SERN ATLC COAST AND TRACKS
NEWD OVER THE OCEAN. THE GFS IS WAY OUT OF RANGE...WHILE THE ECMWF
DESPITE A SLGT EWD TREND WITH THE 12Z RUN REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
PERHAPS GRAZE THE TWIN FORKS. THIS STORM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
BECAUSE THE MODEL DROPS IT INTO THE 970S. STILL...ONLY VERY LOW
POPS FOR THIS STORM ATTM...WHICH ACTUALLY BLEEDS INTO THE NEXT SYS
WHICH APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE CWA. THIS ONE IS ROOTED IN
A BROAD H5 LOW WHICH SPINS INTO THE NERN CONUS AND ALLOWS LOW PRES
TO DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE. BASED ON THE GEFS...A PROG CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE CONSENSUS ATTM. OR IN GFS TERMS...A LOW
SLIGHTLY FURTHER S THAN THE OPERATIONAL 12Z RUN. POPS WERE
INCREASED INTO THE 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE MON THRU TUE. DID
MAINTAIN SOME RAIN CHCS WITH THE SNOW IN CASE THE FURTHER NWD SOLN
PANS OUT...BRINGING IN WARMER MARITIME AIR. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL LGT SNOW ON WED...BUT CAPPED
POPS AT 20 PERCENT DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. SUPERBLEND
TEMPS THU APPEAR GOOD WITH A CHILLY PATTERN IN PLACE. AN ARCTIC
SHOT POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. CONDS WILL BE VFR...THEN WILL LOWER TO MVFR THEREAFTER.
IFR AND LOWER CONDS EXPECTED LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY FROM AROUND 09-
15Z WITH VSBYS LESS THAN 1SM AND CIGS AT OR BELOW 500 FT.

N-NW WINDS 8-12 KT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT LATE TONIGHT...THEN WILL INCREASE FURTHER TO 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE NYC METRO TERMINALS WILL BE 3 TO
5 INCHES...AND FOR LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...MAINLY KISP/KGON...6 TO
8 INCHES. SLIGHTLY LESS AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. SCA CONDS WILL
INCREASE TO GALES ON THE OCEAN DURING FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...HAVE GONE
WITH SCA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. RAFT LEVELS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THEREFORE THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN FOR EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TREND TO BELOW SCA LATER ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUILDING IN. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SCA WILL BE MORE
PROBABLE IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES FCST
FOR MUCH OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...0.5 TO 1 INCH FOR NYC METRO
AND SW CT...AND 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES NORTH/WEST. PCPN STARTS OUT AS
RAIN...BUT SHOULD BE CHANGING TO SNOW FOR MOST SPOTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PCPN POSSIBLE LATE MON THRU TUE. MOST OF THAT
COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR CTZ005-006-009-010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR CTZ007-008-011-012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ067.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ068>075-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NJZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/JC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN





000
FXUS61 KOKX 042353
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
653 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AND PASS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. FAIR WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE FOR SNOW DURING THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. A COLD AIRMASS WILL THEN BRING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES PASS BY TO OUR SE ALONG A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE TWO WAVES WILL BRING PCPN TO
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE
SECOND WAVE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO
SHIFT THROUGH AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC LIFT COURTESY OF THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAVE TRENDED WEST WITH QPF OUTPUT. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF
12ZWPC/GGEM/NAM/GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WITH A FEW SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS.

WITH THE CWA ON THE BACKSIDE AND NEAR THE EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD
FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT ALONG WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE A
SOMEWHAT SHARP GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA.
COMPLICATING THE SNOWFALL FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF WHEN THERMAL
PROFILES COOL OFF ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES AND
WET BULB-ZERO HEIGHTS...PCPN STARTS AS RAIN TONIGHT. THEN AS COLDER
AIR GETS DRAWN IN WITH A NORTH WIND...AN EVENTUAL MIX AND CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW OCCURS DURING THE LATER HOURS. LOOKS LIKE BY
DAYBREAK...MIXING COULD STILL BE OCCURRING OVER EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...BUT OTHERWISE...SNOW ACROSS THE CWA.

BASED ON MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORECAST...BANDED SNOW IS
POSSIBLE...BUT AS ALWAYS...THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE HARD TO PIN
DOWN. ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER ARE THE MILD TEMPERATURES AT THE
START OF THIS EVENT....AND THAT DYNAMIC COOLING COULD BE TEMPERED BY
THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER ALOFT. COMBINED WITH THE BANDING
UNCERTAINTY...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL TOTALS
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA AT THIS TIME...BUT AN EARLIER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
COULD RESULT IN AMOUNTS AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES ABOVE THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

BEST CHANCE OF WARNING-LEVEL SNOWFALL WOULD BE OVER NEW LONDON
COUNTY...BUT EVEN HERE HAVE GONE WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTIES.

FOR TEMPS...WEIGHTED THEM TOWARD THE 2-METER NAM NUMBERS AS A
MAV/NAM MOS BLEND IS USUALLY TOO HIGH IN THESE SITUATIONS.

SKIES THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOW TEMPS ARE A MAV/NAM
MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SFC HIPRES RIDGE EXTENDS NEWD INTO THE REGION SAT. DESPITE COLD
TEMPS ALOFT WITH H85 AROUND -8C...SW FLOW THRU THE LAYER SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING BRINGING HI TEMPS AOA 40F. ON SUN...AN UPR
LOW TRACKING ACROSS QUEBEC PROGGED TO DROP A CDFNT THRU DURING THE
DAY. THE CAA APPEARS TOO LATE ATTM TO HAVE AND IMPACT ON HI TEMPS.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK LIFT AND LIKELY TO BE SOME MID LVL
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT...THE SYS WILL BE BATTLING SUBSIDENCE. AS
A RESULT...AGREED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF A DRY FROPA. A
COUPLE OF QUESTIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST IS
DEEP LOW PRES WHICH IS SPAWNED OFF THE SERN ATLC COAST AND TRACKS
NEWD OVER THE OCEAN. THE GFS IS WAY OUT OF RANGE...WHILE THE ECMWF
DESPITE A SLGT EWD TREND WITH THE 12Z RUN REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
PERHAPS GRAZE THE TWIN FORKS. THIS STORM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
BECAUSE THE MODEL DROPS IT INTO THE 970S. STILL...ONLY VERY LOW
POPS FOR THIS STORM ATTM...WHICH ACTUALLY BLEEDS INTO THE NEXT SYS
WHICH APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE CWA. THIS ONE IS ROOTED IN
A BROAD H5 LOW WHICH SPINS INTO THE NERN CONUS AND ALLOWS LOW PRES
TO DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE. BASED ON THE GEFS...A PROG CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE CONSENSUS ATTM. OR IN GFS TERMS...A LOW
SLIGHTLY FURTHER S THAN THE OPERATIONAL 12Z RUN. POPS WERE
INCREASED INTO THE 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE MON THRU TUE. DID
MAINTAIN SOME RAIN CHCS WITH THE SNOW IN CASE THE FURTHER NWD SOLN
PANS OUT...BRINGING IN WARMER MARITIME AIR. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL LGT SNOW ON WED...BUT CAPPED
POPS AT 20 PERCENT DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. SUPERBLEND
TEMPS THU APPEAR GOOD WITH A CHILLY PATTERN IN PLACE. AN ARCTIC
SHOT POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TERMINALS. DESPITE
THIS...CONDS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING BEFORE
LOWERING TO MVFR BY MIDNIGHT...THEN TO IFR THEREAFTER.

A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY FROM AROUND
09-15Z WITH VSBYS LESS THAN 1SM AND CIGS AT OR BELOW 500 FT.

N-NW WINDS 8-12 KT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT LATE TONIGHT...THEN WILL INCREASE FURTHER TO 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW INCHES OF RUNWAY ACCUMULATION LIKELY NYC METRO
TERMINALS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE KISP/KGON.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORIES BEFORE 04Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORIES BEFORE 04Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORIES BEFORE 04Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORIES BEFORE 04Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORIES BEFORE 04Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORIES BEFORE 04Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. SCA CONDS WILL
INCREASE TO GALES ON THE OCEAN DURING FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...HAVE GONE
WITH SCA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. RAFT LEVELS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THEREFORE THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN FOR EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TREND TO BELOW SCA LATER ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUILDING IN. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SCA WILL BE MORE
PROBABLE IN THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
QUARTER OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN IS EXPECTED. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL
BE OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. LOWEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NE NJ
AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.  PCPN STARTS OUT AS RAIN...BUT SHOULD
BE CHANGING TO SNOW FOR MOST SPOTS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. NO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PCPN POSSIBLE LATE MON THRU TUE. MOST OF THAT
COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     CTZ007-008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     CTZ005-006-009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ079-081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ068>075-078-080-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/JC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JC





000
FXUS61 KOKX 042353
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
653 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AND PASS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. FAIR WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE FOR SNOW DURING THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. A COLD AIRMASS WILL THEN BRING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES PASS BY TO OUR SE ALONG A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE TWO WAVES WILL BRING PCPN TO
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE
SECOND WAVE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO
SHIFT THROUGH AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC LIFT COURTESY OF THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAVE TRENDED WEST WITH QPF OUTPUT. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF
12ZWPC/GGEM/NAM/GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WITH A FEW SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS.

WITH THE CWA ON THE BACKSIDE AND NEAR THE EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD
FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT ALONG WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE A
SOMEWHAT SHARP GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA.
COMPLICATING THE SNOWFALL FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF WHEN THERMAL
PROFILES COOL OFF ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES AND
WET BULB-ZERO HEIGHTS...PCPN STARTS AS RAIN TONIGHT. THEN AS COLDER
AIR GETS DRAWN IN WITH A NORTH WIND...AN EVENTUAL MIX AND CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW OCCURS DURING THE LATER HOURS. LOOKS LIKE BY
DAYBREAK...MIXING COULD STILL BE OCCURRING OVER EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...BUT OTHERWISE...SNOW ACROSS THE CWA.

BASED ON MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORECAST...BANDED SNOW IS
POSSIBLE...BUT AS ALWAYS...THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE HARD TO PIN
DOWN. ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER ARE THE MILD TEMPERATURES AT THE
START OF THIS EVENT....AND THAT DYNAMIC COOLING COULD BE TEMPERED BY
THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER ALOFT. COMBINED WITH THE BANDING
UNCERTAINTY...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL TOTALS
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA AT THIS TIME...BUT AN EARLIER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
COULD RESULT IN AMOUNTS AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES ABOVE THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

BEST CHANCE OF WARNING-LEVEL SNOWFALL WOULD BE OVER NEW LONDON
COUNTY...BUT EVEN HERE HAVE GONE WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTIES.

FOR TEMPS...WEIGHTED THEM TOWARD THE 2-METER NAM NUMBERS AS A
MAV/NAM MOS BLEND IS USUALLY TOO HIGH IN THESE SITUATIONS.

SKIES THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOW TEMPS ARE A MAV/NAM
MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SFC HIPRES RIDGE EXTENDS NEWD INTO THE REGION SAT. DESPITE COLD
TEMPS ALOFT WITH H85 AROUND -8C...SW FLOW THRU THE LAYER SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING BRINGING HI TEMPS AOA 40F. ON SUN...AN UPR
LOW TRACKING ACROSS QUEBEC PROGGED TO DROP A CDFNT THRU DURING THE
DAY. THE CAA APPEARS TOO LATE ATTM TO HAVE AND IMPACT ON HI TEMPS.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK LIFT AND LIKELY TO BE SOME MID LVL
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT...THE SYS WILL BE BATTLING SUBSIDENCE. AS
A RESULT...AGREED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF A DRY FROPA. A
COUPLE OF QUESTIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST IS
DEEP LOW PRES WHICH IS SPAWNED OFF THE SERN ATLC COAST AND TRACKS
NEWD OVER THE OCEAN. THE GFS IS WAY OUT OF RANGE...WHILE THE ECMWF
DESPITE A SLGT EWD TREND WITH THE 12Z RUN REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
PERHAPS GRAZE THE TWIN FORKS. THIS STORM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
BECAUSE THE MODEL DROPS IT INTO THE 970S. STILL...ONLY VERY LOW
POPS FOR THIS STORM ATTM...WHICH ACTUALLY BLEEDS INTO THE NEXT SYS
WHICH APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE CWA. THIS ONE IS ROOTED IN
A BROAD H5 LOW WHICH SPINS INTO THE NERN CONUS AND ALLOWS LOW PRES
TO DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE. BASED ON THE GEFS...A PROG CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE CONSENSUS ATTM. OR IN GFS TERMS...A LOW
SLIGHTLY FURTHER S THAN THE OPERATIONAL 12Z RUN. POPS WERE
INCREASED INTO THE 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE MON THRU TUE. DID
MAINTAIN SOME RAIN CHCS WITH THE SNOW IN CASE THE FURTHER NWD SOLN
PANS OUT...BRINGING IN WARMER MARITIME AIR. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL LGT SNOW ON WED...BUT CAPPED
POPS AT 20 PERCENT DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. SUPERBLEND
TEMPS THU APPEAR GOOD WITH A CHILLY PATTERN IN PLACE. AN ARCTIC
SHOT POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TERMINALS. DESPITE
THIS...CONDS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING BEFORE
LOWERING TO MVFR BY MIDNIGHT...THEN TO IFR THEREAFTER.

A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY FROM AROUND
09-15Z WITH VSBYS LESS THAN 1SM AND CIGS AT OR BELOW 500 FT.

N-NW WINDS 8-12 KT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT LATE TONIGHT...THEN WILL INCREASE FURTHER TO 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW INCHES OF RUNWAY ACCUMULATION LIKELY NYC METRO
TERMINALS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE KISP/KGON.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORIES BEFORE 04Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORIES BEFORE 04Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORIES BEFORE 04Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORIES BEFORE 04Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORIES BEFORE 04Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORIES BEFORE 04Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. SCA CONDS WILL
INCREASE TO GALES ON THE OCEAN DURING FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...HAVE GONE
WITH SCA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. RAFT LEVELS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THEREFORE THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN FOR EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TREND TO BELOW SCA LATER ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUILDING IN. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SCA WILL BE MORE
PROBABLE IN THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
QUARTER OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN IS EXPECTED. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL
BE OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. LOWEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NE NJ
AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.  PCPN STARTS OUT AS RAIN...BUT SHOULD
BE CHANGING TO SNOW FOR MOST SPOTS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. NO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PCPN POSSIBLE LATE MON THRU TUE. MOST OF THAT
COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     CTZ007-008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     CTZ005-006-009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ079-081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ068>075-078-080-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/JC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 042353
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
653 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AND PASS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. FAIR WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE FOR SNOW DURING THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. A COLD AIRMASS WILL THEN BRING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES PASS BY TO OUR SE ALONG A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE TWO WAVES WILL BRING PCPN TO
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE
SECOND WAVE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO
SHIFT THROUGH AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC LIFT COURTESY OF THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAVE TRENDED WEST WITH QPF OUTPUT. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF
12ZWPC/GGEM/NAM/GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WITH A FEW SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS.

WITH THE CWA ON THE BACKSIDE AND NEAR THE EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD
FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT ALONG WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE A
SOMEWHAT SHARP GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA.
COMPLICATING THE SNOWFALL FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF WHEN THERMAL
PROFILES COOL OFF ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES AND
WET BULB-ZERO HEIGHTS...PCPN STARTS AS RAIN TONIGHT. THEN AS COLDER
AIR GETS DRAWN IN WITH A NORTH WIND...AN EVENTUAL MIX AND CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW OCCURS DURING THE LATER HOURS. LOOKS LIKE BY
DAYBREAK...MIXING COULD STILL BE OCCURRING OVER EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...BUT OTHERWISE...SNOW ACROSS THE CWA.

BASED ON MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORECAST...BANDED SNOW IS
POSSIBLE...BUT AS ALWAYS...THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE HARD TO PIN
DOWN. ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER ARE THE MILD TEMPERATURES AT THE
START OF THIS EVENT....AND THAT DYNAMIC COOLING COULD BE TEMPERED BY
THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER ALOFT. COMBINED WITH THE BANDING
UNCERTAINTY...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL TOTALS
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA AT THIS TIME...BUT AN EARLIER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
COULD RESULT IN AMOUNTS AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES ABOVE THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

BEST CHANCE OF WARNING-LEVEL SNOWFALL WOULD BE OVER NEW LONDON
COUNTY...BUT EVEN HERE HAVE GONE WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTIES.

FOR TEMPS...WEIGHTED THEM TOWARD THE 2-METER NAM NUMBERS AS A
MAV/NAM MOS BLEND IS USUALLY TOO HIGH IN THESE SITUATIONS.

SKIES THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOW TEMPS ARE A MAV/NAM
MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SFC HIPRES RIDGE EXTENDS NEWD INTO THE REGION SAT. DESPITE COLD
TEMPS ALOFT WITH H85 AROUND -8C...SW FLOW THRU THE LAYER SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING BRINGING HI TEMPS AOA 40F. ON SUN...AN UPR
LOW TRACKING ACROSS QUEBEC PROGGED TO DROP A CDFNT THRU DURING THE
DAY. THE CAA APPEARS TOO LATE ATTM TO HAVE AND IMPACT ON HI TEMPS.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK LIFT AND LIKELY TO BE SOME MID LVL
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT...THE SYS WILL BE BATTLING SUBSIDENCE. AS
A RESULT...AGREED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF A DRY FROPA. A
COUPLE OF QUESTIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST IS
DEEP LOW PRES WHICH IS SPAWNED OFF THE SERN ATLC COAST AND TRACKS
NEWD OVER THE OCEAN. THE GFS IS WAY OUT OF RANGE...WHILE THE ECMWF
DESPITE A SLGT EWD TREND WITH THE 12Z RUN REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
PERHAPS GRAZE THE TWIN FORKS. THIS STORM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
BECAUSE THE MODEL DROPS IT INTO THE 970S. STILL...ONLY VERY LOW
POPS FOR THIS STORM ATTM...WHICH ACTUALLY BLEEDS INTO THE NEXT SYS
WHICH APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE CWA. THIS ONE IS ROOTED IN
A BROAD H5 LOW WHICH SPINS INTO THE NERN CONUS AND ALLOWS LOW PRES
TO DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE. BASED ON THE GEFS...A PROG CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE CONSENSUS ATTM. OR IN GFS TERMS...A LOW
SLIGHTLY FURTHER S THAN THE OPERATIONAL 12Z RUN. POPS WERE
INCREASED INTO THE 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE MON THRU TUE. DID
MAINTAIN SOME RAIN CHCS WITH THE SNOW IN CASE THE FURTHER NWD SOLN
PANS OUT...BRINGING IN WARMER MARITIME AIR. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL LGT SNOW ON WED...BUT CAPPED
POPS AT 20 PERCENT DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. SUPERBLEND
TEMPS THU APPEAR GOOD WITH A CHILLY PATTERN IN PLACE. AN ARCTIC
SHOT POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TERMINALS. DESPITE
THIS...CONDS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING BEFORE
LOWERING TO MVFR BY MIDNIGHT...THEN TO IFR THEREAFTER.

A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY FROM AROUND
09-15Z WITH VSBYS LESS THAN 1SM AND CIGS AT OR BELOW 500 FT.

N-NW WINDS 8-12 KT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT LATE TONIGHT...THEN WILL INCREASE FURTHER TO 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW INCHES OF RUNWAY ACCUMULATION LIKELY NYC METRO
TERMINALS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE KISP/KGON.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORIES BEFORE 04Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORIES BEFORE 04Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORIES BEFORE 04Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORIES BEFORE 04Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORIES BEFORE 04Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORIES BEFORE 04Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. SCA CONDS WILL
INCREASE TO GALES ON THE OCEAN DURING FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...HAVE GONE
WITH SCA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. RAFT LEVELS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THEREFORE THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN FOR EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TREND TO BELOW SCA LATER ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUILDING IN. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SCA WILL BE MORE
PROBABLE IN THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
QUARTER OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN IS EXPECTED. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL
BE OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. LOWEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NE NJ
AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.  PCPN STARTS OUT AS RAIN...BUT SHOULD
BE CHANGING TO SNOW FOR MOST SPOTS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. NO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PCPN POSSIBLE LATE MON THRU TUE. MOST OF THAT
COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     CTZ007-008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     CTZ005-006-009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ079-081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ068>075-078-080-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/JC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JC





000
FXUS61 KOKX 042141
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
441 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AND PASS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. FAIR WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE FOR SNOW DURING THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD AIRMASS WILL THEN BRING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES PASS BY TO OUR SE ALONG A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE TWO WAVES WILL BRING PCPN TO MOST...IF NOT
ALL OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE SECOND WAVE WILL
BE ENHANCED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO SHIFT THROUGH AS WELL
AS SYNOPTIC LIFT COURTESY OF THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET
STREAK. MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE TRENDED WEST WITH
QPF OUTPUT. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF 12ZWPC/GGEM/NAM/GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF WITH A FEW SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS.

WITH THE CWA ON THE BACKSIDE AND NEAR THE EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD
FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT ALONG WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE A
SOMEWHAT SHARP GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA.
COMPLICATING THE SNOWFALL FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF WHEN THERMAL
PROFILES COOL OFF ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES AND
WET BULB-ZERO HEIGHTS...PCPN STARTS AS RAIN TONIGHT. THEN AS COLDER
AIR GETS DRAWN IN WITH A NORTH WIND...AN EVENTUAL MIX AND CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW OCCURS DURING THE LATER HOURS. LOOKS LIKE BY
DAYBREAK...MIXING COULD STILL BE OCCURRING OVER EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...BUT OTHERWISE...SNOW ACROSS THE CWA.

BASED ON MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORECAST...BANDED SNOW IS
POSSIBLE...BUT AS ALWAYS...THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE HARD TO PIN
DOWN. ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER ARE THE MILD TEMPERATURES AT THE
START OF THIS EVENT....AND THAT DYNAMIC COOLING COULD BE TEMPERED BY
THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER ALOFT. COMBINED WITH THE BANDING
UNCERTAINTY...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL TOTALS
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA AT THIS TIME...BUT AN EARLIER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
COULD RESULT IN AMOUNTS AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES ABOVE THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

BEST CHANCE OF WARNING-LEVEL SNOWFALL WOULD BE OVER NEW LONDON
COUNTY...BUT EVEN HERE HAVE GONE WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTIES.

FOR TEMPS...WEIGHTED THEM TOWARD THE 2-METER NAM NUMBERS AS A
MAV/NAM MOS BLEND IS USUALLY TOO HIGH IN THESE SITUATIONS.

SKIES THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOW TEMPS ARE A MAV/NAM
MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SFC HIPRES RIDGE EXTENDS NEWD INTO THE REGION SAT. DESPITE COLD
TEMPS ALOFT WITH H85 AROUND -8C...SW FLOW THRU THE LAYER SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING BRINGING HI TEMPS AOA 40F. ON SUN...AN UPR LOW
TRACKING ACROSS QUEBEC PROGGED TO DROP A CDFNT THRU DURING THE DAY.
THE CAA APPEARS TOO LATE ATTM TO HAVE AND IMPACT ON HI TEMPS.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK LIFT AND LIKELY TO BE SOME MID LVL
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT...THE SYS WILL BE BATTLING SUBSIDENCE. AS A
RESULT...AGREED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF A DRY FROPA. A COUPLE OF
QUESTIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST IS DEEP LOW PRES
WHICH IS SPAWNED OFF THE SERN ATLC COAST AND TRACKS NEWD OVER THE
OCEAN. THE GFS IS WAY OUT OF RANGE...WHILE THE ECMWF DESPITE A SLGT
EWD TREND WITH THE 12Z RUN REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO PERHAPS GRAZE THE
TWIN FORKS. THIS STORM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BECAUSE THE MODEL
DROPS IT INTO THE 970S. STILL...ONLY VERY LOW POPS FOR THIS STORM
ATTM...WHICH ACTUALLY BLEEDS INTO THE NEXT SYS WHICH APPEARS MORE
LIKELY TO IMPACT THE CWA. THIS ONE IS ROOTED IN A BROAD H5 LOW WHICH
SPINS INTO THE NERN CONUS AND ALLOWS LOW PRES TO DEVELOP JUST
OFFSHORE. BASED ON THE GEFS...A PROG CLOSER TO THE ECMWF APPEARS TO
BE THE CONSENSUS ATTM. OR IN GFS TERMS...A LOW SLIGHTLY FURTHER S
THAN THE OPERATIONAL 12Z RUN. POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE 50
PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE MON THRU TUE. DID MAINTAIN SOME RAIN CHCS
WITH THE SNOW IN CASE THE FURTHER NWD SOLN PANS OUT...BRINGING IN
WARMER MARITIME AIR. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
RESIDUAL LGT SNOW ON WED...BUT CAPPED POPS AT 20 PERCENT DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. SUPERBLEND TEMPS THU APPEAR GOOD WITH A
CHILLY PATTERN IN PLACE. AN ARCTIC SHOT POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. N-NNW WINDS GENERALLY 7-11KT.

-RA DEVELOPS FROM S TO N 03-04Z. -RA MIXES WITH -SN OVERNIGHT...AND
CHANGES TO ALL -SN BY SUNRISE FOR NYC TERMINALS ALONG WITH IFR COND.
SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE SNOW PSBL NYC TERMINALS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. -SN GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E MID-LATE
MORNING...WITH COND IMPROVING TO MOSTLY VFR BY AFTERNOON.

WINDS BECOME NRLY OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 20-25KT BY
SUNRISE...THEN BECOME MORE NWRLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. GUSTS OVER
25KT PSBL BY MID-LATE MORNING...PEAKING JUST SHORT OF 30KT.

A FEW INCHES OF RUNWAY ACCUMULATION LIKELY NYC METRO
TERMINALS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE KISP/KGON.

    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CONT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 25KT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. SCA CONDS WILL
INCREASE TO GALES ON THE OCEAN DURING FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...HAVE GONE
WITH SCA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. RAFT LEVELS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THEREFORE THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN FOR EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TREND TO BELOW SCA LATER ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUILDING IN. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SCA WILL BE MORE
PROBABLE IN THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
QUARTER OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN IS EXPECTED. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL
BE OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. LOWEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NE NJ
AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.  PCPN STARTS OUT AS RAIN...BUT SHOULD
BE CHANGING TO SNOW FOR MOST SPOTS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. NO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PCPN POSSIBLE LATE MON THRU TUE. MOST OF THAT
COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     CTZ007-008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     CTZ005-006-009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ079-081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ068>075-078-080-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...JMC/JC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JC





000
FXUS61 KOKX 041757
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1257 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT AND PASS OFFSHORE
TODAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WEAKENS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A STRONG HIGH REEMERGING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST LOW WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A
NOR EASTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT IS NOW EAST OF THE CWA. ONLY SLIGHT CHC OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OVER OUR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
DRY. STILL SOME CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THIS AFTN...HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL STILL MANAGE TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT JUST OFFSHORE WITH
ANOTHER...AND DEEPER WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR EAST THE FRONT SETS UP WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK OF THE LOW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. ALSO THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGEOVER WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN AND HOW HEAVY THE
PRECIPITATION IS...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY BE A WET
ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF NYC...ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
STILL WELL TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN
FOR A FARTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW
LONDON CONNECTICUT. WITH THE COLD AIR SLOWER TO MOVE IN HAVE LESS
THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WEST AND NEAR 3 INCHES FAR EASTERN
AREAS...EXTREME EASTERN NEW LONDON...AND MONTAUK POINT.

ANY FARTHER SHIFT TO THE WEST COULD RESULT IN FAR EASTERN REGIONS
APPROACHING 6 INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL TREND TO COLDER WEATHER AS
THE JET STREAM IN THE UPPER LEVELS PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH ESPECIALLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES APPEAR
PHASED ACROSS THE GULF AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST. THE JET STREAK
EMBEDDED WITHIN INCREASES UP TO 160-190 KTS.

THE MID LEVELS HAVE SW FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THEN THIS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SPLIT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES OF VARYING AMPLITUDE MOVE ACROSS ALONG A LARGE LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THE TRACK FOLLOWS THE SAME AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTING UP. THE
FIRST ONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A NOR`EASTER ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THERE ARE OTHER AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE FROM A CLIPPER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO LOW PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGH PRESSURE IS IN BETWEEN IN SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS POTENTIAL
NOR`EASTER COULD HAVE OR IF IT JUST GLANCES THE REGION ON ITS
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. OTHER WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOW
BEHIND IT.

THE WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE MORE CHANCES OF SNOW BUT A LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY OF PLACEMENT OF LOWS SO THE FORECAST AMOUNTS
CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER
THOUGH AND WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS COULD VERY WELL TREND A FEW
COLDER THAN CURRENTLY CONVEYED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. NWRLY WINDS GENERALLY
10-15KT. ISOLATED GUSTS 17-19KT POSSIBLE EARLY...BUT TOO
INFREQUENT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

-RA DEVELOPS FROM S TO N AFTER 03-04Z. -RA MIXES WITH -SN
OVERNIGHT...AND CHANGES TO ALL -SN BY SUNRISE FOR NYC TERMINALS
ALONG WITH IFR COND. -SN GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E MID-
LATE MORNING...WITH COND IMPROVING TO MOSTLY VFR BY AFTERNOON.
OVERALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WORSE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED
FURTHER EAST THAN WEST.

WINDS BECOME NRLY OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 20-25KT BY
SUNRISE...THEN BECOME MORE NWRLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF RUNWAY ACCUMULATION NYC METRO
TERMINALS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE KISP/KGON.


    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CONT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 25KT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS ON TRACK WITH SCA CONDS DUE TO SEAS ON THE OCEAN.WINDS
AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TODAY
AND INTO LATE TONIGHT. TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING SOME GUSTS MAY BE
NEAR 25 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES EAST. THEN SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER AND DEEPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE
WATERS. SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS MAY
ALSO BE AROUND 25 KT FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THEREFORE
THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN FOR EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TREND TO BELOW SCA LATER ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUILDING IN. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SCA WILL BE MORE
PROBABLE IN THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NYC
METRO...LONG ISLAND AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN AND CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH 1
TO 3 POSSIBLE.

NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED SINCE ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SNOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 041757
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1257 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT AND PASS OFFSHORE
TODAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WEAKENS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A STRONG HIGH REEMERGING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST LOW WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A
NOR EASTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT IS NOW EAST OF THE CWA. ONLY SLIGHT CHC OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OVER OUR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
DRY. STILL SOME CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THIS AFTN...HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL STILL MANAGE TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT JUST OFFSHORE WITH
ANOTHER...AND DEEPER WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR EAST THE FRONT SETS UP WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK OF THE LOW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. ALSO THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGEOVER WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN AND HOW HEAVY THE
PRECIPITATION IS...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY BE A WET
ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF NYC...ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
STILL WELL TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN
FOR A FARTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW
LONDON CONNECTICUT. WITH THE COLD AIR SLOWER TO MOVE IN HAVE LESS
THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WEST AND NEAR 3 INCHES FAR EASTERN
AREAS...EXTREME EASTERN NEW LONDON...AND MONTAUK POINT.

ANY FARTHER SHIFT TO THE WEST COULD RESULT IN FAR EASTERN REGIONS
APPROACHING 6 INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL TREND TO COLDER WEATHER AS
THE JET STREAM IN THE UPPER LEVELS PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH ESPECIALLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES APPEAR
PHASED ACROSS THE GULF AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST. THE JET STREAK
EMBEDDED WITHIN INCREASES UP TO 160-190 KTS.

THE MID LEVELS HAVE SW FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THEN THIS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SPLIT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES OF VARYING AMPLITUDE MOVE ACROSS ALONG A LARGE LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THE TRACK FOLLOWS THE SAME AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTING UP. THE
FIRST ONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A NOR`EASTER ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THERE ARE OTHER AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE FROM A CLIPPER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO LOW PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGH PRESSURE IS IN BETWEEN IN SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS POTENTIAL
NOR`EASTER COULD HAVE OR IF IT JUST GLANCES THE REGION ON ITS
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. OTHER WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOW
BEHIND IT.

THE WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE MORE CHANCES OF SNOW BUT A LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY OF PLACEMENT OF LOWS SO THE FORECAST AMOUNTS
CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER
THOUGH AND WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS COULD VERY WELL TREND A FEW
COLDER THAN CURRENTLY CONVEYED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. NWRLY WINDS GENERALLY
10-15KT. ISOLATED GUSTS 17-19KT POSSIBLE EARLY...BUT TOO
INFREQUENT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

-RA DEVELOPS FROM S TO N AFTER 03-04Z. -RA MIXES WITH -SN
OVERNIGHT...AND CHANGES TO ALL -SN BY SUNRISE FOR NYC TERMINALS
ALONG WITH IFR COND. -SN GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E MID-
LATE MORNING...WITH COND IMPROVING TO MOSTLY VFR BY AFTERNOON.
OVERALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WORSE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED
FURTHER EAST THAN WEST.

WINDS BECOME NRLY OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 20-25KT BY
SUNRISE...THEN BECOME MORE NWRLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF RUNWAY ACCUMULATION NYC METRO
TERMINALS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE KISP/KGON.


    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CONT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 25KT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS ON TRACK WITH SCA CONDS DUE TO SEAS ON THE OCEAN.WINDS
AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TODAY
AND INTO LATE TONIGHT. TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING SOME GUSTS MAY BE
NEAR 25 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES EAST. THEN SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER AND DEEPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE
WATERS. SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS MAY
ALSO BE AROUND 25 KT FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THEREFORE
THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN FOR EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TREND TO BELOW SCA LATER ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUILDING IN. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SCA WILL BE MORE
PROBABLE IN THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NYC
METRO...LONG ISLAND AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN AND CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH 1
TO 3 POSSIBLE.

NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED SINCE ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SNOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 041757
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1257 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT AND PASS OFFSHORE
TODAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WEAKENS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A STRONG HIGH REEMERGING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST LOW WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A
NOR EASTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT IS NOW EAST OF THE CWA. ONLY SLIGHT CHC OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OVER OUR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
DRY. STILL SOME CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THIS AFTN...HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL STILL MANAGE TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT JUST OFFSHORE WITH
ANOTHER...AND DEEPER WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR EAST THE FRONT SETS UP WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK OF THE LOW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. ALSO THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGEOVER WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN AND HOW HEAVY THE
PRECIPITATION IS...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY BE A WET
ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF NYC...ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
STILL WELL TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN
FOR A FARTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW
LONDON CONNECTICUT. WITH THE COLD AIR SLOWER TO MOVE IN HAVE LESS
THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WEST AND NEAR 3 INCHES FAR EASTERN
AREAS...EXTREME EASTERN NEW LONDON...AND MONTAUK POINT.

ANY FARTHER SHIFT TO THE WEST COULD RESULT IN FAR EASTERN REGIONS
APPROACHING 6 INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL TREND TO COLDER WEATHER AS
THE JET STREAM IN THE UPPER LEVELS PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH ESPECIALLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES APPEAR
PHASED ACROSS THE GULF AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST. THE JET STREAK
EMBEDDED WITHIN INCREASES UP TO 160-190 KTS.

THE MID LEVELS HAVE SW FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THEN THIS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SPLIT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES OF VARYING AMPLITUDE MOVE ACROSS ALONG A LARGE LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THE TRACK FOLLOWS THE SAME AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTING UP. THE
FIRST ONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A NOR`EASTER ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THERE ARE OTHER AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE FROM A CLIPPER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO LOW PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGH PRESSURE IS IN BETWEEN IN SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS POTENTIAL
NOR`EASTER COULD HAVE OR IF IT JUST GLANCES THE REGION ON ITS
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. OTHER WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOW
BEHIND IT.

THE WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE MORE CHANCES OF SNOW BUT A LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY OF PLACEMENT OF LOWS SO THE FORECAST AMOUNTS
CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER
THOUGH AND WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS COULD VERY WELL TREND A FEW
COLDER THAN CURRENTLY CONVEYED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. NWRLY WINDS GENERALLY
10-15KT. ISOLATED GUSTS 17-19KT POSSIBLE EARLY...BUT TOO
INFREQUENT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

-RA DEVELOPS FROM S TO N AFTER 03-04Z. -RA MIXES WITH -SN
OVERNIGHT...AND CHANGES TO ALL -SN BY SUNRISE FOR NYC TERMINALS
ALONG WITH IFR COND. -SN GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E MID-
LATE MORNING...WITH COND IMPROVING TO MOSTLY VFR BY AFTERNOON.
OVERALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WORSE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED
FURTHER EAST THAN WEST.

WINDS BECOME NRLY OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 20-25KT BY
SUNRISE...THEN BECOME MORE NWRLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF RUNWAY ACCUMULATION NYC METRO
TERMINALS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE KISP/KGON.


    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CONT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 25KT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS ON TRACK WITH SCA CONDS DUE TO SEAS ON THE OCEAN.WINDS
AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TODAY
AND INTO LATE TONIGHT. TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING SOME GUSTS MAY BE
NEAR 25 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES EAST. THEN SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER AND DEEPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE
WATERS. SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS MAY
ALSO BE AROUND 25 KT FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THEREFORE
THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN FOR EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TREND TO BELOW SCA LATER ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUILDING IN. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SCA WILL BE MORE
PROBABLE IN THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NYC
METRO...LONG ISLAND AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN AND CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH 1
TO 3 POSSIBLE.

NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED SINCE ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SNOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 041445
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
945 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PASS OFFSHORE TODAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WEAKENS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG HIGH
REEMERGING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST LOW WAVE
EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A NOR EASTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT RAINFALL COMING TO AN END. THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
BE JUST OFFSHORE AROUND MIDDAY...AND THEN BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH STILL WEST OF THE AREA. WITH THE
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...COLDER AIR WILL TAKE AWHILE TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION...AND HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT JUST OFFSHORE WITH
ANOTHER...AND DEEPER WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR EAST THE FRONT SETS UP WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK OF THE LOW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. ALSO THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGEOVER WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN AND HOW HEAVY THE
PRECIPITATION IS...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY BE A WET
ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF NYC...ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
STILL WELL TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN
FOR A FARTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW
LONDON CONNECTICUT. WITH THE COLD AIR SLOWER TO MOVE IN HAVE LESS
THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WEST AND NEAR 3 INCHES FAR EASTERN
AREAS...EXTREME EASTERN NEW LONDON...AND MONTAUK POINT.

ANY FARTHER SHIFT TO THE WEST COULD RESULT IN FAR EASTERN REGIONS
APPROACHING 6 INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL TREND TO COLDER WEATHER AS
THE JET STREAM IN THE UPPER LEVELS PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH ESPECIALLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES APPEAR
PHASED ACROSS THE GULF AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST. THE JET STREAK
EMBEDDED WITHIN INCREASES UP TO 160-190 KTS.

THE MID LEVELS HAVE SW FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THEN THIS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SPLIT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES OF VARYING AMPLITUDE MOVE ACROSS ALONG A LARGE LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THE TRACK FOLLOWS THE SAME AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTING UP. THE
FIRST ONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A NOR`EASTER ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THERE ARE OTHER AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE FROM A CLIPPER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO LOW PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGH PRESSURE IS IN BETWEEN IN SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS POTENTIAL
NOR`EASTER COULD HAVE OR IF IT JUST GLANCES THE REGION ON ITS
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. OTHER WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOW
BEHIND IT.

THE WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE MORE CHANCES OF SNOW BUT A LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY OF PLACEMENT OF LOWS SO THE FORECAST AMOUNTS
CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER
THOUGH AND WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS COULD VERY WELL TREND A FEW
COLDER THAN CURRENTLY CONVEYED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED E OF NYC METRO TERMINALS...AND ALL BUT KGON.
FAIRLY RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR...THEN VFR BEHIND IT. EXPECT CIGS
030-050 FOR BULK OF NYC METRO TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIAL NWRLY WIND SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT CAUSING SEVERAL HOURS OF
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25KT. EXPECT GUSTS TO END BY 16-17Z FOR NYC
TERMINALS. THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS MAY BACK TO WNW FOR SEVERAL
HOURS.

RAIN DEVELOPS AFTER 03Z EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...CHANGING TO SNOW
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS MAY END +/- AN HOUR OR TWO OF
FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS MAY END +/- AN HOUR OR TWO OF
FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS MAY END +/- AN HOUR OR TWO OF
FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS MAY END +/- AN HOUR OR TWO OF
FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS MAY END +/- AN HOUR OR TWO OF
FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS MAY END +/- AN HOUR OR TWO OF
FORECAST. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE +/- AN HOUR OR TWO OF
FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...IFR IN LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY EAST OF NYC METRO DURING THE
MORNING. WNW-NW WINDS G15-20 KT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE LATE IN CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS ON TRACK...ONLY ADJUSTED CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
WATERS THIS MORNING.

WINDS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TODAY AND INTO LATE TONIGHT. TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING SOME GUSTS MAY BE
NEAR 25 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES EAST.  THEN SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER AND DEEPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE
WATERS. SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS MAY
ALSO BE AROUND 25 KT FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THEREFORE THE
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN FOR EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TREND TO BELOW SCA LATER ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUILDING IN. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SCA WILL BE MORE
PROBABLE IN THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NYC
METRO...LONG ISLAND AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN AND CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH 1
TO 3 POSSIBLE.

NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED SINCE ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SNOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DS/GS
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 041127
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
627 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PASS OFFSHORE TODAY AND
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WEAKENS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
STRONG HIGH REEMERGING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. MULTIPLE WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE
FIRST LOW WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A
NOR EASTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT WITH LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. COLD FRONT REMAINS SLOW TO TRACK EAST AND WAS JUST
ENTERING THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AT 11Z. WITH THE SLOWLY
PROGRESSION ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS UPWARD.

THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OFF SHORE AROUND MIDDAY. AND
THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL WEST OF
THE AREA. WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT COLDER AIR
WILL TAKE AWHILE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...AND HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT JUST OFFSHORE WITH
ANOTHER...AND DEEPER WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR EAST THE FRONT SETS UP WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK OF THE LOW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. ALSO THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGEOVER WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN AND HOW HEAVY THE
PRECIPITATION IS...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY BE A WET
ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF NYC...ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
STILL WELL TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN
FOR A FARTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW
LONDON CONNECTICUT. WITH THE COLD AIR SLOWER TO MOVE IN HAVE LESS
THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WEST AND NEAR 3 INCHES FAR EASTERN
AREAS...EXTREME EASTERN NEW LONDON...AND MONTAUK POINT.

ANY FARTHER SHIFT TO THE WEST COULD RESULT IN FAR EASTERN REGIONS
APPROACHING 6 INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL TREND TO COLDER WEATHER AS
THE JET STREAM IN THE UPPER LEVELS PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH ESPECIALLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES APPEAR
PHASED ACROSS THE GULF AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST. THE JET STREAK
EMBEDDED WITHIN INCREASES UP TO 160-190 KTS.

THE MID LEVELS HAVE SW FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THEN THIS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SPLIT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES OF VARYING AMPLITUDE MOVE ACROSS ALONG A LARGE LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THE TRACK FOLLOWS THE SAME AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTING UP. THE
FIRST ONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A NOR`EASTER ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THERE ARE OTHER AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE FROM A CLIPPER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO LOW PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGH PRESSURE IS IN BETWEEN IN SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS POTENTIAL
NOR`EASTER COULD HAVE OR IF IT JUST GLANCES THE REGION ON ITS
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. OTHER WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOW
BEHIND IT.

THE WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE MORE CHANCES OF SNOW BUT A LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY OF PLACEMENT OF LOWS SO THE FORECAST AMOUNTS
CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER
THOUGH AND WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS COULD VERY WELL TREND A FEW
COLDER THAN CURRENTLY CONVEYED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PASSES ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING...
STALLING JUST OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TONIGHT.

LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
LATE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

LIGHT SW/S WINDS WILL VEER TURN TO THE NW THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT. NW WINDS DIMINISH TEMPORARILY THIS
EVENING...BUT INCREASE FROM THE N OVERNIGHT.

RAIN DEVELOPS AFTER 03Z EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...CHANGING TO SNOW
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF BY AN
HOUR. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. A GUST
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE INFREQUENT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF BY AN
HOUR. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY +/-AN HOUR OR TWO. A GUST
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE INFREQUENT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF BY AN
HOUR. A GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE
INFREQUENT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF BY AN
HOUR. A GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE
INFREQUENT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF BY AN
HOUR. A GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE
INFREQUENT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF BY AN
HOUR. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY +/-AN HOUR OR TWO. A GUST
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE INFREQUENT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...IFR IN LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY EAST OF NYC METRO DURING THE
MORNING. WNW-NW WINDS G15-20 KT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE LATE IN CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS ON TRACK...ONLY ADJUSTED CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
WATERS THIS MORNING.

WINDS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TODAY AND INTO LATE TONIGHT. TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING SOME GUSTS MAY BE
NEAR 25 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES EAST.  THEN SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER AND DEEPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE
WATERS. SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS MAY
ALSO BE AROUND 25 KT FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THEREFORE THE
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN FOR EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TREND TO BELOW SCA LATER ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUILDING IN. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SCA WILL BE MORE
PROBABLE IN THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NYC
METRO...LONG ISLAND AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN AND CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH 1
TO 3 POSSIBLE.

NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED SINCE ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
SNOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 041127
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
627 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PASS OFFSHORE TODAY AND
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WEAKENS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
STRONG HIGH REEMERGING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. MULTIPLE WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE
FIRST LOW WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A
NOR EASTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT WITH LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. COLD FRONT REMAINS SLOW TO TRACK EAST AND WAS JUST
ENTERING THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AT 11Z. WITH THE SLOWLY
PROGRESSION ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS UPWARD.

THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OFF SHORE AROUND MIDDAY. AND
THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL WEST OF
THE AREA. WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT COLDER AIR
WILL TAKE AWHILE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...AND HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT JUST OFFSHORE WITH
ANOTHER...AND DEEPER WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR EAST THE FRONT SETS UP WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK OF THE LOW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. ALSO THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGEOVER WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN AND HOW HEAVY THE
PRECIPITATION IS...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY BE A WET
ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF NYC...ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
STILL WELL TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN
FOR A FARTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW
LONDON CONNECTICUT. WITH THE COLD AIR SLOWER TO MOVE IN HAVE LESS
THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WEST AND NEAR 3 INCHES FAR EASTERN
AREAS...EXTREME EASTERN NEW LONDON...AND MONTAUK POINT.

ANY FARTHER SHIFT TO THE WEST COULD RESULT IN FAR EASTERN REGIONS
APPROACHING 6 INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL TREND TO COLDER WEATHER AS
THE JET STREAM IN THE UPPER LEVELS PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH ESPECIALLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES APPEAR
PHASED ACROSS THE GULF AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST. THE JET STREAK
EMBEDDED WITHIN INCREASES UP TO 160-190 KTS.

THE MID LEVELS HAVE SW FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THEN THIS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SPLIT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES OF VARYING AMPLITUDE MOVE ACROSS ALONG A LARGE LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THE TRACK FOLLOWS THE SAME AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTING UP. THE
FIRST ONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A NOR`EASTER ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THERE ARE OTHER AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE FROM A CLIPPER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO LOW PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGH PRESSURE IS IN BETWEEN IN SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS POTENTIAL
NOR`EASTER COULD HAVE OR IF IT JUST GLANCES THE REGION ON ITS
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. OTHER WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOW
BEHIND IT.

THE WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE MORE CHANCES OF SNOW BUT A LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY OF PLACEMENT OF LOWS SO THE FORECAST AMOUNTS
CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER
THOUGH AND WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS COULD VERY WELL TREND A FEW
COLDER THAN CURRENTLY CONVEYED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PASSES ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING...
STALLING JUST OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TONIGHT.

LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
LATE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

LIGHT SW/S WINDS WILL VEER TURN TO THE NW THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT. NW WINDS DIMINISH TEMPORARILY THIS
EVENING...BUT INCREASE FROM THE N OVERNIGHT.

RAIN DEVELOPS AFTER 03Z EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...CHANGING TO SNOW
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF BY AN
HOUR. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. A GUST
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE INFREQUENT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF BY AN
HOUR. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY +/-AN HOUR OR TWO. A GUST
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE INFREQUENT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF BY AN
HOUR. A GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE
INFREQUENT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF BY AN
HOUR. A GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE
INFREQUENT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF BY AN
HOUR. A GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE
INFREQUENT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF BY AN
HOUR. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY +/-AN HOUR OR TWO. A GUST
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE INFREQUENT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...IFR IN LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY EAST OF NYC METRO DURING THE
MORNING. WNW-NW WINDS G15-20 KT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE LATE IN CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS ON TRACK...ONLY ADJUSTED CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
WATERS THIS MORNING.

WINDS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TODAY AND INTO LATE TONIGHT. TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING SOME GUSTS MAY BE
NEAR 25 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES EAST.  THEN SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER AND DEEPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE
WATERS. SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS MAY
ALSO BE AROUND 25 KT FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THEREFORE THE
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN FOR EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TREND TO BELOW SCA LATER ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUILDING IN. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SCA WILL BE MORE
PROBABLE IN THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NYC
METRO...LONG ISLAND AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN AND CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH 1
TO 3 POSSIBLE.

NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED SINCE ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
SNOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 041011
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
511 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PASS OFFSHORE TODAY AND
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WEAKENS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
STRONG HIGH REEMERGING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. MULTIPLE WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE
FIRST LOW WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A
NOR EASTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CONNECTICUT EARLY THIS MORNING...UPDATED POPS.

A COLD FRONT WAS STILL WEST OF THE AREA...MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW
JERSEY AT 09Z...AND WILL MOVE OFF SHORE THIS MORNING. ONE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY EAST OF NYC AND ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT COLDER AIR WILL TAKE AWHILE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...AND
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SEASONAL LEVELS. LOOKING AT
RADAR TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...MAY HAVE TO ADJUST POPS A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT JUST OFFSHORE WITH
ANOTHER...AND DEEPER WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR EAST THE FRONT SETS UP WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK OF THE LOW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. ALSO THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGEOVER WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN AND HOW HEAVY THE
PRECIPITATION IS...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY BE A WET
ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF NYC...ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
STILL WELL TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN
FOR A FARTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW
LONDON CONNECTICUT. WITH THE COLD AIR SLOWER TO MOVE IN HAVE LESS
THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WEST AND NEAR 3 INCHES FAR EASTERN
AREAS...EXTREME EASTERN NEW LONDON...AND MONTAUK POINT.

ANY FARTHER SHIFT TO THE WEST COULD RESULT IN FAR EASTERN REGIONS
APPROACHING 6 INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL TREND TO COLDER WEATHER AS
THE JET STREAM IN THE UPPER LEVELS PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH ESPECIALLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES APPEAR
PHASED ACROSS THE GULF AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST. THE JET STREAK
EMBEDDED WITHIN INCREASES UP TO 160-190 KTS.

THE MID LEVELS HAVE SW FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THEN THIS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SPLIT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES OF VARYING AMPLITUDE MOVE ACROSS ALONG A LARGE LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THE TRACK FOLLOWS THE SAME AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTING UP. THE
FIRST ONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A NOR`EASTER ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THERE ARE OTHER AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE FROM A CLIPPER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO LOW PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGH PRESSURE IS IN BETWEEN IN SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS POTENTIAL
NOR`EASTER COULD HAVE OR IF IT JUST GLANCES THE REGION ON ITS
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. OTHER WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOW
BEHIND IT.

THE WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE MORE CHANCES OF SNOW BUT A LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY OF PLACEMENT OF LOWS SO THE FORECAST AMOUNTS
CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER
THOUGH AND WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS COULD VERY WELL TREND A FEW
COLDER THAN CURRENTLY CONVEYED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING STALLING
SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO IFR EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS AROUND DAY BREAK. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 12-14Z...A BIT LATER FURTHER EAST...ONCE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

LIGHT SW/S WINDS TURN TO THE WEST...THEN NW THIS MORNING.
TIMING AROUND 12Z FOR THE WEST SHIFT...AND 14Z FOR THE NW SHIFT.
SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT.

NW WINDS DIMINISH TEMPORARILY BY EVENING...BUT INCREASE FROM THE N
LATE EVENING.

    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE
OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN
HOUR OR TWO.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE
OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY +/-AN
HOUR OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE
OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY +/-
AN HOUR OR TWO.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: VISBY COULD FALL TO LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK.
TIMING OF IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF
HOURS. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY +/-AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VISBY COULD FALL TO LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK.
TIMING OF IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE OFF BY A COUPLE
OF HOURS. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY +/-AN HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE
OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY +/-
AN HOUR OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT-FRIDAY...SUB-VFR IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST OF NYC
METRO IN LIGHT SNOW. WNW-NW WINDS G15-20 KT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE LATE IN CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TODAY AND INTO LATE TONIGHT. TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING SOME GUSTS MAY BE
NEAR 25 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES EAST.  THEN SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER AND DEEPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE
WATERS. SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS MAY
ALSO BE AROUND 25 KT FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THEREFORE THE
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN FOR EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TREND TO BELOW SCA LATER ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUILDING IN. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SCA WILL BE MORE
PROBABLE IN THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NYC
METRO...LONG ISLAND AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN AND CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH 1
TO 3 POSSIBLE.

NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED SINCE ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
SNOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 041011
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
511 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PASS OFFSHORE TODAY AND
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WEAKENS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
STRONG HIGH REEMERGING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. MULTIPLE WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE
FIRST LOW WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A
NOR EASTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CONNECTICUT EARLY THIS MORNING...UPDATED POPS.

A COLD FRONT WAS STILL WEST OF THE AREA...MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW
JERSEY AT 09Z...AND WILL MOVE OFF SHORE THIS MORNING. ONE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY EAST OF NYC AND ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT COLDER AIR WILL TAKE AWHILE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...AND
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SEASONAL LEVELS. LOOKING AT
RADAR TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...MAY HAVE TO ADJUST POPS A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT JUST OFFSHORE WITH
ANOTHER...AND DEEPER WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR EAST THE FRONT SETS UP WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK OF THE LOW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. ALSO THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGEOVER WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN AND HOW HEAVY THE
PRECIPITATION IS...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY BE A WET
ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF NYC...ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
STILL WELL TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN
FOR A FARTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW
LONDON CONNECTICUT. WITH THE COLD AIR SLOWER TO MOVE IN HAVE LESS
THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WEST AND NEAR 3 INCHES FAR EASTERN
AREAS...EXTREME EASTERN NEW LONDON...AND MONTAUK POINT.

ANY FARTHER SHIFT TO THE WEST COULD RESULT IN FAR EASTERN REGIONS
APPROACHING 6 INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL TREND TO COLDER WEATHER AS
THE JET STREAM IN THE UPPER LEVELS PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH ESPECIALLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES APPEAR
PHASED ACROSS THE GULF AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST. THE JET STREAK
EMBEDDED WITHIN INCREASES UP TO 160-190 KTS.

THE MID LEVELS HAVE SW FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THEN THIS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SPLIT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES OF VARYING AMPLITUDE MOVE ACROSS ALONG A LARGE LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THE TRACK FOLLOWS THE SAME AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTING UP. THE
FIRST ONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A NOR`EASTER ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THERE ARE OTHER AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE FROM A CLIPPER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO LOW PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGH PRESSURE IS IN BETWEEN IN SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS POTENTIAL
NOR`EASTER COULD HAVE OR IF IT JUST GLANCES THE REGION ON ITS
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. OTHER WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOW
BEHIND IT.

THE WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE MORE CHANCES OF SNOW BUT A LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY OF PLACEMENT OF LOWS SO THE FORECAST AMOUNTS
CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER
THOUGH AND WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS COULD VERY WELL TREND A FEW
COLDER THAN CURRENTLY CONVEYED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING STALLING
SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO IFR EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS AROUND DAY BREAK. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 12-14Z...A BIT LATER FURTHER EAST...ONCE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

LIGHT SW/S WINDS TURN TO THE WEST...THEN NW THIS MORNING.
TIMING AROUND 12Z FOR THE WEST SHIFT...AND 14Z FOR THE NW SHIFT.
SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT.

NW WINDS DIMINISH TEMPORARILY BY EVENING...BUT INCREASE FROM THE N
LATE EVENING.

    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE
OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN
HOUR OR TWO.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE
OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY +/-AN
HOUR OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE
OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY +/-
AN HOUR OR TWO.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: VISBY COULD FALL TO LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK.
TIMING OF IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF
HOURS. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY +/-AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VISBY COULD FALL TO LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK.
TIMING OF IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE OFF BY A COUPLE
OF HOURS. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY +/-AN HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE
OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY +/-
AN HOUR OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT-FRIDAY...SUB-VFR IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST OF NYC
METRO IN LIGHT SNOW. WNW-NW WINDS G15-20 KT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE LATE IN CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TODAY AND INTO LATE TONIGHT. TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING SOME GUSTS MAY BE
NEAR 25 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES EAST.  THEN SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER AND DEEPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE
WATERS. SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS MAY
ALSO BE AROUND 25 KT FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THEREFORE THE
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN FOR EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TREND TO BELOW SCA LATER ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUILDING IN. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SCA WILL BE MORE
PROBABLE IN THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NYC
METRO...LONG ISLAND AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN AND CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH 1
TO 3 POSSIBLE.

NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED SINCE ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
SNOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 041011
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
511 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PASS OFFSHORE TODAY AND
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WEAKENS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
STRONG HIGH REEMERGING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. MULTIPLE WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE
FIRST LOW WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A
NOR EASTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CONNECTICUT EARLY THIS MORNING...UPDATED POPS.

A COLD FRONT WAS STILL WEST OF THE AREA...MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW
JERSEY AT 09Z...AND WILL MOVE OFF SHORE THIS MORNING. ONE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY EAST OF NYC AND ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT COLDER AIR WILL TAKE AWHILE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...AND
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SEASONAL LEVELS. LOOKING AT
RADAR TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...MAY HAVE TO ADJUST POPS A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT JUST OFFSHORE WITH
ANOTHER...AND DEEPER WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR EAST THE FRONT SETS UP WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK OF THE LOW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. ALSO THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGEOVER WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN AND HOW HEAVY THE
PRECIPITATION IS...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY BE A WET
ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF NYC...ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
STILL WELL TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN
FOR A FARTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW
LONDON CONNECTICUT. WITH THE COLD AIR SLOWER TO MOVE IN HAVE LESS
THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WEST AND NEAR 3 INCHES FAR EASTERN
AREAS...EXTREME EASTERN NEW LONDON...AND MONTAUK POINT.

ANY FARTHER SHIFT TO THE WEST COULD RESULT IN FAR EASTERN REGIONS
APPROACHING 6 INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL TREND TO COLDER WEATHER AS
THE JET STREAM IN THE UPPER LEVELS PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH ESPECIALLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES APPEAR
PHASED ACROSS THE GULF AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST. THE JET STREAK
EMBEDDED WITHIN INCREASES UP TO 160-190 KTS.

THE MID LEVELS HAVE SW FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THEN THIS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SPLIT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES OF VARYING AMPLITUDE MOVE ACROSS ALONG A LARGE LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THE TRACK FOLLOWS THE SAME AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTING UP. THE
FIRST ONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A NOR`EASTER ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THERE ARE OTHER AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE FROM A CLIPPER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO LOW PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGH PRESSURE IS IN BETWEEN IN SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS POTENTIAL
NOR`EASTER COULD HAVE OR IF IT JUST GLANCES THE REGION ON ITS
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. OTHER WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOW
BEHIND IT.

THE WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE MORE CHANCES OF SNOW BUT A LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY OF PLACEMENT OF LOWS SO THE FORECAST AMOUNTS
CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER
THOUGH AND WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS COULD VERY WELL TREND A FEW
COLDER THAN CURRENTLY CONVEYED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING STALLING
SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO IFR EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS AROUND DAY BREAK. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 12-14Z...A BIT LATER FURTHER EAST...ONCE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

LIGHT SW/S WINDS TURN TO THE WEST...THEN NW THIS MORNING.
TIMING AROUND 12Z FOR THE WEST SHIFT...AND 14Z FOR THE NW SHIFT.
SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT.

NW WINDS DIMINISH TEMPORARILY BY EVENING...BUT INCREASE FROM THE N
LATE EVENING.

    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE
OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN
HOUR OR TWO.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE
OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY +/-AN
HOUR OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE
OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY +/-
AN HOUR OR TWO.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: VISBY COULD FALL TO LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK.
TIMING OF IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF
HOURS. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY +/-AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VISBY COULD FALL TO LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK.
TIMING OF IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE OFF BY A COUPLE
OF HOURS. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY +/-AN HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE
OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY +/-
AN HOUR OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT-FRIDAY...SUB-VFR IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST OF NYC
METRO IN LIGHT SNOW. WNW-NW WINDS G15-20 KT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE LATE IN CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TODAY AND INTO LATE TONIGHT. TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING SOME GUSTS MAY BE
NEAR 25 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES EAST.  THEN SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER AND DEEPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE
WATERS. SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS MAY
ALSO BE AROUND 25 KT FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THEREFORE THE
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN FOR EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TREND TO BELOW SCA LATER ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUILDING IN. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SCA WILL BE MORE
PROBABLE IN THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NYC
METRO...LONG ISLAND AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN AND CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH 1
TO 3 POSSIBLE.

NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED SINCE ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
SNOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 040928
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
428 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PASS OFFSHORE TODAY AND
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WEAKENS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
STRONG HIGH REEMERGING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. MULTIPLE WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE
FIRST LOW WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A
NOR EASTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS STILL WEST OF THE AREA...MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW
JERSEY AT 09Z...AND WILL MOVE OFF SHORE THIS MORNING. ONE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY EAST OF NYC AND ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
COLDER AIR WILL TAKE AWHILE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...AND HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SEASONAL LEVELS. LOOKING AT RADAR
TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...MAY HAVE TO ADJUST POPS A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT JUST OFFSHORE WITH
ANOTHER...AND DEEPER WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR EAST THE FRONT SETS UP WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK OF THE LOW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. ALSO THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGEOVER WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN AND HOW HEAVY THE
PRECIPITATION IS...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY BE A WET
ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF NYC...ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL
WELL TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A
FARTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW
LONDON CONNECTICUT. WITH THE COLD AIR SLOWER TO MOVE IN HAVE LESS
THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WEST AND NEAR 3 INCHES FAR EASTERN
AREAS...EXTREME EASTERN NEW LONDON...AND MONTAUK POINT.

ANY FARTHER SHIFT TO THE WEST COULD RESULT IN FAR EASTERN REGIONS
APPROACHING 6 INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL TREND TO COLDER WEATHER AS
THE JET STREAM IN THE UPPER LEVELS PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH ESPECIALLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES APPEAR
PHASED ACROSS THE GULF AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST. THE JET STREAK
EMBEDDED WITHIN INCREASES UP TO 160-190 KTS.

THE MID LEVELS HAVE SW FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THEN THIS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SPLIT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES OF VARYING AMPLITUDE MOVE ACROSS ALONG A LARGE LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THE TRACK FOLLOWS THE SAME AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTING UP. THE
FIRST ONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A NOR`EASTER ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THERE ARE OTHER AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE FROM A CLIPPER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO LOW PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGH PRESSURE IS IN BETWEEN IN SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS POTENTIAL
NOR`EASTER COULD HAVE OR IF IT JUST GLANCES THE REGION ON ITS
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. OTHER WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOW
BEHIND IT.

THE WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE MORE CHANCES OF SNOW BUT A LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY OF PLACEMENT OF LOWS SO THE FORECAST AMOUNTS
CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER
THOUGH AND WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS COULD VERY WELL TREND A FEW
COLDER THAN CURRENTLY CONVEYED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING STALLING
SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO IFR EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS AROUND DAY BREAK. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 12-14Z...A BIT LATER FURTHER EAST...ONCE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

LIGHT SW/S WINDS TURN TO THE WEST...THEN NW THIS MORNING.
TIMING AROUND 12Z FOR THE WEST SHIFT...AND 14Z FOR THE NW SHIFT.
SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT.

NW WINDS DIMINISH TEMPORARILY BY EVENING...BUT INCREASE FROM THE N
LATE EVENING.

    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE
OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN
HOUR OR TWO.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE
OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY +/-AN
HOUR OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE
OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY +/-
AN HOUR OR TWO.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: VISBY COULD FALL TO LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK.
TIMING OF IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF
HOURS. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY +/-AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VISBY COULD FALL TO LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK.
TIMING OF IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE OFF BY A COUPLE
OF HOURS. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY +/-AN HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE
OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY +/-
AN HOUR OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT-FRIDAY...SUB-VFR IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST OF NYC
METRO IN LIGHT SNOW. WNW-NW WINDS G15-20 KT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE LATE IN CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TODAY AND INTO LATE TONIGHT. TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING SOME GUSTS MAY BE
NEAR 25 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES EAST.  THEN SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER AND DEEPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE
WATERS. SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS MAY
ALSO BE AROUND 25 KT FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THEREFORE THE
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN FOR EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TREND TO BELOW SCA LATER ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUILDING IN. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SCA WILL BE MORE
PROBABLE IN THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NYC
METRO...LONG ISLAND AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN AND CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH 1
TO 3 POSSIBLE.

NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED SINCE ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
SNOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET





000
FXUS61 KOKX 040523
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1223 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK NORTHEAST PASSING OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
IMPACTS FROM POTENTIAL COASTAL STORMS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AT THIS TIME. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT REMAINS.

BASED ON LATEST HRRR...CAN EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS WELL EAST OF THE THURSDAY
MORNING...AND WILL CARRY HIGHER POPS FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.

WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG ACROSS THE REGION.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS 40-50
DEGREES.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR
TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR AN ACCUMULATING WET SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY EAST OF NYC ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT.

MODELS SHOW AN AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE DIGGING SE AND BECOMING
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE...ALLOWING LOW PRES TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE
COAST THU NIGHT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD TO EXPAND FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINAL AS THE PRECIP DEVELOPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE DOES COOL AND LIGHT
RAIN..QUICKLY MIXES WITH AND CHANGES TO SNOW.

BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS FRIDAY MORNING...
THE MOST LIKELY FCST...1-3 INCHES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SE CT
WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR NYC.

THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...

A SHIFT IN THE TRACK FURTHER WEST COULD RESULT IN UP TO 3-6
INCHES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT WITH HIGH IMPACT DURING
THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

A SHIFT FURTHER EAST...A DUSTING OF LESS THAN 1 INCH OR NO SNOW.

STAY TUNED. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NWP MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 FLOW INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT THEN DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DEVELOP
LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS ALSO APPARENT IN THE SUNY SB ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WHICH IS INDICATING VARIABILITY IN THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE H5 FLOW BEGINNING FRI. THIS IS THE REASON WHY
THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NOAM WILL START THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GIVING WAY TO A DIGGING TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRI NIGHT
AND WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SAT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SAT NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH DRY ON SUN. MEANWHILE...THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN TRACKING THIS SYSTEM WELL OUTSIDE OF THE 40N 70W
BENCHMARK. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z/03 ECMWF IS NOW THROWING SOME QPF BACK
INTO AREAS E OF NYC...FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE...AND HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR MON. IF THE TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST ONCE
BETTER SAMPLING OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
CAPTURED WHEN IT MOVES ONSHORE...THEN POPS WOULD NEED TO BE RAISED.

THE NEXT COASTAL STORM IS SLATED FOR LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
THIS TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND IS ALSO IMPACTED BY THE LACK OF DATA AVAILABLE OVER THE
PACIFIC. DECIDED IT WAS BEST TO STICK WITH CONTINUITY UNTIL THINGS
CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED AND HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SIGNAL FOR A MILLER TYPE B STORM
REMAINS...BUT TIMING...STRENGTH AND P-TYPE REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

THINGS DRY OUT ON WED...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT ACROSS
NW ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING
STALLING SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED FOR MANY TERMINALS AS THE RAIN EXITS TO
THE EAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR IFR OVERNIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO ADDITIONAL RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH 12-13Z.

ONCE THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY 12-14Z...A BIT LATER FURTHER EAST.

BY TONIGHT...A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE STALLED FRONT...AND RAIN MAY
MOVE IN ACROSS TERMINALS EAST OF NYC METRO.

LIGHT SW/S WINDS TURN TO THE WEST...THEN NW THIS MORNING.
TIMING AROUND 12Z FOR THE WEST SHIFT...AND 14Z FOR THE NW SHIFT.

SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KTS...BUT THESE SHOULD BE INFREQUENT

NW WINDS DIMINISH TEMPORARILY BY EVENING...BUT INCREASE FROM
THE N LATE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT-FRIDAY...SUB-VFR IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST OF NYC
METRO IN LIGHT SNOW. WNW-NW WINDS G15-20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WIND GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS LONG ISLAND SOUND
AND THE LONG ISLAND BAYS ALLOWED THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 05Z.
THE SMALL CRAFT REMAINS ON THE OCEAN WATERS...MAINLY FOR
SEAS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WITH
SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 6-9 FT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3
PERIODS...WILL RUN THE SCA THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE NW.

NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ARND 20 KT FRI MORNING AS
LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE.

A SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI INTO FRI EVE FOR
WINDS AND SEAS DUE TO A MODEST NLY FLOW WITH LOW PRES PASSING TO
THE E. TRANQUIL CONDS THEN PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SUN. AN
SCA MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON ON AT LEAST THE
OCEAN AS A COASTAL STORM PASSES WELL S AND E OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...SEAS
SHOULD STILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 FT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
WIND FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...1-2 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY FOR LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT. LOW CHC OF 3-6 INCH SNOW FOR THIS SAME AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 040337
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1037 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK NORTHEAST PASSING
OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY IMPACTS FROM POTENTIAL COASTAL STORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN TAPERING OFF OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. BASED ON LATEST HRRR...CAN
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT LATE IN
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS
WELL EAST OF THE THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL CARRY HIGHER POPS FOR
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG ACROSS THE REGION.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS 40-50
DEGREES.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR
TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR AN ACCUMULATING WET SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY EAST OF NYC ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT.

MODELS SHOW AN AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE DIGGING SE AND BECOMING
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE...ALLOWING LOW PRES TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE
COAST THU NIGHT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD TO EXPAND FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINAL AS THE PRECIP DEVELOPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE DOES COOL AND LIGHT
RAIN..QUICKLY MIXES WITH AND CHANGES TO SNOW.

BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS FRIDAY MORNING...
THE MOST LIKELY FCST...1-3 INCHES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SE CT
WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR NYC.

THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...

A SHIFT IN THE TRACK FURTHER WEST COULD RESULT IN UP TO 3-6
INCHES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT WITH HIGH IMPACT DURING
THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

A SHIFT FURTHER EAST...A DUSTING OF LESS THAN 1 INCH OR NO SNOW.

STAY TUNED. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NWP MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 FLOW INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT THEN DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DEVELOP
LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS ALSO APPARENT IN THE SUNY SB ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WHICH IS INDICATING VARIABILITY IN THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE H5 FLOW BEGINNING FRI. THIS IS THE REASON WHY
THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NOAM WILL START THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GIVING WAY TO A DIGGING TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRI NIGHT
AND WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SAT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SAT NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH DRY ON SUN. MEANWHILE...THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN TRACKING THIS SYSTEM WELL OUTSIDE OF THE 40N 70W
BENCHMARK. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z/03 ECMWF IS NOW THROWING SOME QPF BACK
INTO AREAS E OF NYC...FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE...AND HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR MON. IF THE TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST ONCE
BETTER SAMPLING OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
CAPTURED WHEN IT MOVES ONSHORE...THEN POPS WOULD NEED TO BE RAISED.

THE NEXT COASTAL STORM IS SLATED FOR LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
THIS TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND IS ALSO IMPACTED BY THE LACK OF DATA AVAILABLE OVER THE
PACIFIC. DECIDED IT WAS BEST TO STICK WITH CONTINUITY UNTIL THINGS
CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED AND HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SIGNAL FOR A MILLER TYPE B STORM
REMAINS...BUT TIMING...STRENGTH AND P-TYPE REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

THINGS DRY OUT ON WED...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT ACROSS
NW ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WEST OF THE REGION WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT...STALLING SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS ON THURSDAY.

WINDS HAVE INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY OVER JFK...WITH MESOSCALE
FEATURE MOVING THROUGH. DO NOT FORESEE THESE HIGHER AND VARYING
WINDS TO CONTINUE TOO LONG.

THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN IS MOVING TO THE EAST. BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN REPORTED...BUT WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LEFTOVER...EXPECT MVFR...IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE MORE LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING...FROM 11-14Z. MAINLY VFR
ANTICIPATED FROM 14Z ONWARD THURSDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE SW...THEN WEST BY THE MORNING
PUSH. ON THURSDAY...WINDS TURN TO THE W/NW BEHIND THE FRONT.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT SUB-VFR IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST OF NYC METRO THURSDAY NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW.
WNW-NW WINDS G15-20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN 6-9 FT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 PERIODS...WILL RUN THE SCA
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA FOR WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KT CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE NW.

NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ARND 20 KT FRI MORNING AS
LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE.

A SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI INTO FRI EVE FOR
WINDS AND SEAS DUE TO A MODEST NLY FLOW WITH LOW PRES PASSING TO
THE E. TRANQUIL CONDS THEN PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SUN. AN
SCA MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON ON AT LEAST THE
OCEAN AS A COASTAL STORM PASSES WELL S AND E OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...SEAS
SHOULD STILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 FT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
WIND FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...1-2 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY FOR LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT. LOW CHC OF 3-6 INCH SNOW FOR THIS SAME AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GC/24/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/24





000
FXUS61 KOKX 040252
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
952 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK NORTHEAST PASSING
OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY IMPACTS FROM POTENTIAL COASTAL STORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN IS PUSHING THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED THROUGH THE REGION...AND WINDS BRIEFLY
INCREASED WITH ITS PASSAGE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO...AND WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS 40-50
DEGREES.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR
TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR AN ACCUMULATING WET SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY EAST OF NYC ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT.

MODELS SHOW AN AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE DIGGING SE AND BECOMING
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE...ALLOWING LOW PRES TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE
COAST THU NIGHT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD TO EXPAND FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINAL AS THE PRECIP DEVELOPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE DOES COOL AND LIGHT
RAIN..QUICKLY MIXES WITH AND CHANGES TO SNOW.

BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS FRIDAY MORNING...
THE MOST LIKELY FCST...1-3 INCHES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SE CT
WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR NYC.

THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...

A SHIFT IN THE TRACK FURTHER WEST COULD RESULT IN UP TO 3-6
INCHES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT WITH HIGH IMPACT DURING
THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

A SHIFT FURTHER EAST...A DUSTING OF LESS THAN 1 INCH OR NO SNOW.

STAY TUNED. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NWP MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 FLOW INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT THEN DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DEVELOP
LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS ALSO APPARENT IN THE SUNY SB ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WHICH IS INDICATING VARIABILITY IN THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE H5 FLOW BEGINNING FRI. THIS IS THE REASON WHY
THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NOAM WILL START THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GIVING WAY TO A DIGGING TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRI NIGHT
AND WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SAT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SAT NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH DRY ON SUN. MEANWHILE...THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN TRACKING THIS SYSTEM WELL OUTSIDE OF THE 40N 70W
BENCHMARK. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z/03 ECMWF IS NOW THROWING SOME QPF BACK
INTO AREAS E OF NYC...FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE...AND HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR MON. IF THE TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST ONCE
BETTER SAMPLING OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
CAPTURED WHEN IT MOVES ONSHORE...THEN POPS WOULD NEED TO BE RAISED.

THE NEXT COASTAL STORM IS SLATED FOR LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
THIS TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND IS ALSO IMPACTED BY THE LACK OF DATA AVAILABLE OVER THE
PACIFIC. DECIDED IT WAS BEST TO STICK WITH CONTINUITY UNTIL THINGS
CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED AND HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SIGNAL FOR A MILLER TYPE B STORM
REMAINS...BUT TIMING...STRENGTH AND P-TYPE REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

THINGS DRY OUT ON WED...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT ACROSS
NW ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WEST OF THE REGION WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT...STALLING SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS ON THURSDAY.

WINDS HAVE INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY OVER JFK...WITH MESOSCALE
FEATURE MOVING THROUGH. DO NOT FORESEE THESE HIGHER AND VARYING
WINDS TO CONTINUE TOO LONG.

THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN IS MOVING TO THE EAST. BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN REPORTED...BUT WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LEFTOVER...EXPECT MVFR...IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE MORE LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING...FROM 11-14Z. MAINLY VFR
ANTICIPATED FROM 14Z ONWARD THURSDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE SW...THEN WEST BY THE MORNING
PUSH. ON THURSDAY...WINDS TURN TO THE W/NW BEHIND THE FRONT.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT SUB-VFR IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST OF NYC METRO THURSDAY NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW.
WNW-NW WINDS G15-20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN 6-9 FT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 PERIODS...WILL RUN THE SCA
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA FOR WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KT CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE NW.

NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ARND 20 KT FRI MORNING AS
LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE.

A SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI INTO FRI EVE FOR
WINDS AND SEAS DUE TO A MODEST NLY FLOW WITH LOW PRES PASSING TO
THE E. TRANQUIL CONDS THEN PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SUN. AN
SCA MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON ON AT LEAST THE
OCEAN AS A COASTAL STORM PASSES WELL S AND E OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...SEAS
SHOULD STILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 FT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
WIND FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THROUGH TONIGHT...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FORECASTS AREA WIDE REMAIN
1-1.5 INCHES WITH MINOR URBAN FLOODING OF LOW LYING POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS WITH MAXIMUM ESTIMATED HOURLY RATES OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE...LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE...OF FLASH
FLOODING...MEANING THIS IS AN ISOLATED THREAT.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...1-2 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY FOR LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT. LOW CHC OF 3-6 INCH SNOW FOR THIS SAME AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GC/24/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/24





000
FXUS61 KOKX 040252
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
952 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK NORTHEAST PASSING
OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY IMPACTS FROM POTENTIAL COASTAL STORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN IS PUSHING THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED THROUGH THE REGION...AND WINDS BRIEFLY
INCREASED WITH ITS PASSAGE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO...AND WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS 40-50
DEGREES.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR
TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR AN ACCUMULATING WET SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY EAST OF NYC ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT.

MODELS SHOW AN AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE DIGGING SE AND BECOMING
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE...ALLOWING LOW PRES TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE
COAST THU NIGHT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD TO EXPAND FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINAL AS THE PRECIP DEVELOPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE DOES COOL AND LIGHT
RAIN..QUICKLY MIXES WITH AND CHANGES TO SNOW.

BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS FRIDAY MORNING...
THE MOST LIKELY FCST...1-3 INCHES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SE CT
WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR NYC.

THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...

A SHIFT IN THE TRACK FURTHER WEST COULD RESULT IN UP TO 3-6
INCHES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT WITH HIGH IMPACT DURING
THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

A SHIFT FURTHER EAST...A DUSTING OF LESS THAN 1 INCH OR NO SNOW.

STAY TUNED. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NWP MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 FLOW INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT THEN DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DEVELOP
LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS ALSO APPARENT IN THE SUNY SB ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WHICH IS INDICATING VARIABILITY IN THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE H5 FLOW BEGINNING FRI. THIS IS THE REASON WHY
THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NOAM WILL START THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GIVING WAY TO A DIGGING TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRI NIGHT
AND WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SAT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SAT NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH DRY ON SUN. MEANWHILE...THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN TRACKING THIS SYSTEM WELL OUTSIDE OF THE 40N 70W
BENCHMARK. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z/03 ECMWF IS NOW THROWING SOME QPF BACK
INTO AREAS E OF NYC...FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE...AND HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR MON. IF THE TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST ONCE
BETTER SAMPLING OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
CAPTURED WHEN IT MOVES ONSHORE...THEN POPS WOULD NEED TO BE RAISED.

THE NEXT COASTAL STORM IS SLATED FOR LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
THIS TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND IS ALSO IMPACTED BY THE LACK OF DATA AVAILABLE OVER THE
PACIFIC. DECIDED IT WAS BEST TO STICK WITH CONTINUITY UNTIL THINGS
CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED AND HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SIGNAL FOR A MILLER TYPE B STORM
REMAINS...BUT TIMING...STRENGTH AND P-TYPE REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

THINGS DRY OUT ON WED...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT ACROSS
NW ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WEST OF THE REGION WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT...STALLING SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS ON THURSDAY.

WINDS HAVE INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY OVER JFK...WITH MESOSCALE
FEATURE MOVING THROUGH. DO NOT FORESEE THESE HIGHER AND VARYING
WINDS TO CONTINUE TOO LONG.

THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN IS MOVING TO THE EAST. BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN REPORTED...BUT WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LEFTOVER...EXPECT MVFR...IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE MORE LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING...FROM 11-14Z. MAINLY VFR
ANTICIPATED FROM 14Z ONWARD THURSDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE SW...THEN WEST BY THE MORNING
PUSH. ON THURSDAY...WINDS TURN TO THE W/NW BEHIND THE FRONT.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT SUB-VFR IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST OF NYC METRO THURSDAY NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW.
WNW-NW WINDS G15-20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN 6-9 FT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 PERIODS...WILL RUN THE SCA
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA FOR WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KT CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE NW.

NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ARND 20 KT FRI MORNING AS
LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE.

A SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI INTO FRI EVE FOR
WINDS AND SEAS DUE TO A MODEST NLY FLOW WITH LOW PRES PASSING TO
THE E. TRANQUIL CONDS THEN PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SUN. AN
SCA MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON ON AT LEAST THE
OCEAN AS A COASTAL STORM PASSES WELL S AND E OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...SEAS
SHOULD STILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 FT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
WIND FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THROUGH TONIGHT...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FORECASTS AREA WIDE REMAIN
1-1.5 INCHES WITH MINOR URBAN FLOODING OF LOW LYING POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS WITH MAXIMUM ESTIMATED HOURLY RATES OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE...LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE...OF FLASH
FLOODING...MEANING THIS IS AN ISOLATED THREAT.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...1-2 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY FOR LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT. LOW CHC OF 3-6 INCH SNOW FOR THIS SAME AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GC/24/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/24





000
FXUS61 KOKX 040252
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
952 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK NORTHEAST PASSING
OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY IMPACTS FROM POTENTIAL COASTAL STORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN IS PUSHING THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED THROUGH THE REGION...AND WINDS BRIEFLY
INCREASED WITH ITS PASSAGE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO...AND WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS 40-50
DEGREES.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR
TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR AN ACCUMULATING WET SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY EAST OF NYC ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT.

MODELS SHOW AN AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE DIGGING SE AND BECOMING
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE...ALLOWING LOW PRES TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE
COAST THU NIGHT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD TO EXPAND FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINAL AS THE PRECIP DEVELOPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE DOES COOL AND LIGHT
RAIN..QUICKLY MIXES WITH AND CHANGES TO SNOW.

BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS FRIDAY MORNING...
THE MOST LIKELY FCST...1-3 INCHES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SE CT
WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR NYC.

THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...

A SHIFT IN THE TRACK FURTHER WEST COULD RESULT IN UP TO 3-6
INCHES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT WITH HIGH IMPACT DURING
THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

A SHIFT FURTHER EAST...A DUSTING OF LESS THAN 1 INCH OR NO SNOW.

STAY TUNED. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NWP MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 FLOW INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT THEN DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DEVELOP
LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS ALSO APPARENT IN THE SUNY SB ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WHICH IS INDICATING VARIABILITY IN THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE H5 FLOW BEGINNING FRI. THIS IS THE REASON WHY
THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NOAM WILL START THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GIVING WAY TO A DIGGING TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRI NIGHT
AND WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SAT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SAT NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH DRY ON SUN. MEANWHILE...THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN TRACKING THIS SYSTEM WELL OUTSIDE OF THE 40N 70W
BENCHMARK. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z/03 ECMWF IS NOW THROWING SOME QPF BACK
INTO AREAS E OF NYC...FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE...AND HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR MON. IF THE TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST ONCE
BETTER SAMPLING OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
CAPTURED WHEN IT MOVES ONSHORE...THEN POPS WOULD NEED TO BE RAISED.

THE NEXT COASTAL STORM IS SLATED FOR LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
THIS TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND IS ALSO IMPACTED BY THE LACK OF DATA AVAILABLE OVER THE
PACIFIC. DECIDED IT WAS BEST TO STICK WITH CONTINUITY UNTIL THINGS
CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED AND HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SIGNAL FOR A MILLER TYPE B STORM
REMAINS...BUT TIMING...STRENGTH AND P-TYPE REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

THINGS DRY OUT ON WED...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT ACROSS
NW ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WEST OF THE REGION WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT...STALLING SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS ON THURSDAY.

WINDS HAVE INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY OVER JFK...WITH MESOSCALE
FEATURE MOVING THROUGH. DO NOT FORESEE THESE HIGHER AND VARYING
WINDS TO CONTINUE TOO LONG.

THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN IS MOVING TO THE EAST. BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN REPORTED...BUT WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LEFTOVER...EXPECT MVFR...IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE MORE LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING...FROM 11-14Z. MAINLY VFR
ANTICIPATED FROM 14Z ONWARD THURSDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE SW...THEN WEST BY THE MORNING
PUSH. ON THURSDAY...WINDS TURN TO THE W/NW BEHIND THE FRONT.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT SUB-VFR IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST OF NYC METRO THURSDAY NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW.
WNW-NW WINDS G15-20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN 6-9 FT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 PERIODS...WILL RUN THE SCA
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA FOR WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KT CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE NW.

NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ARND 20 KT FRI MORNING AS
LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE.

A SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI INTO FRI EVE FOR
WINDS AND SEAS DUE TO A MODEST NLY FLOW WITH LOW PRES PASSING TO
THE E. TRANQUIL CONDS THEN PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SUN. AN
SCA MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON ON AT LEAST THE
OCEAN AS A COASTAL STORM PASSES WELL S AND E OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...SEAS
SHOULD STILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 FT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
WIND FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THROUGH TONIGHT...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FORECASTS AREA WIDE REMAIN
1-1.5 INCHES WITH MINOR URBAN FLOODING OF LOW LYING POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS WITH MAXIMUM ESTIMATED HOURLY RATES OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE...LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE...OF FLASH
FLOODING...MEANING THIS IS AN ISOLATED THREAT.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...1-2 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY FOR LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT. LOW CHC OF 3-6 INCH SNOW FOR THIS SAME AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GC/24/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/24




000
FXUS61 KOKX 032349
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
649 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK NORTHEAST PASSING
OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY IMPACTS FROM POTENTIAL COASTAL STORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST AS MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT MVG NORTH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FORECASTS AREA WIDE REMAIN 1-1.5 INCHES WITH
MINOR URBAN FLOODING OF LOW LYING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WITH MAXIMUM
ESTIMATED HOURLY RATES OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH.

STEEP LOW LVL INVERSIONS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PREVENT
STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS
40-50 DEGREES.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR
TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR AN ACCUMULATING WET SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY EAST OF NYC ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT.

MODELS SHOW AN AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE DIGGING SE AND BECOMING
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE...ALLOWING LOW PRES TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE
COAST THU NIGHT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD TO EXPAND FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINAL AS THE PRECIP DEVELOPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE DOES COOL AND LIGHT
RAIN..QUICKLY MIXES WITH AND CHANGES TO SNOW.

BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS FRIDAY MORNING...
THE MOST LIKELY FCST...1-3 INCHES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SE CT
WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR NYC.

THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...

A SHIFT IN THE TRACK FURTHER WEST COULD RESULT IN UP TO 3-6
INCHES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT WITH HIGH IMPACT DURING
THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

A SHIFT FURTHER EAST...A DUSTING OF LESS THAN 1 INCH OR NO SNOW.

STAY TUNED. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NWP MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 FLOW INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT THEN DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DEVELOP
LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS ALSO APPARENT IN THE SUNY SB ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WHICH IS INDICATING VARIABILITY IN THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE H5 FLOW BEGINNING FRI. THIS IS THE REASON WHY
THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NOAM WILL START THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GIVING WAY TO A DIGGING TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRI NIGHT
AND WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SAT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SAT NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH DRY ON SUN. MEANWHILE...THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN TRACKING THIS SYSTEM WELL OUTSIDE OF THE 40N 70W
BENCHMARK. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z/03 ECMWF IS NOW THROWING SOME QPF BACK
INTO AREAS E OF NYC...FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE...AND HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR MON. IF THE TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST ONCE
BETTER SAMPLING OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
CAPTURED WHEN IT MOVES ONSHORE...THEN POPS WOULD NEED TO BE RAISED.

THE NEXT COASTAL STORM IS SLATED FOR LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
THIS TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND IS ALSO IMPACTED BY THE LACK OF DATA AVAILABLE OVER THE
PACIFIC. DECIDED IT WAS BEST TO STICK WITH CONTINUITY UNTIL THINGS
CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED AND HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SIGNAL FOR A MILLER TYPE B STORM
REMAINS...BUT TIMING...STRENGTH AND P-TYPE REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

THINGS DRY OUT ON WED...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT ACROSS
NW ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WEST OF THE REGION WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT...STALLING SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS ON THURSDAY.

WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN...EXPECT MVFR...IFR AND
LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE LIFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE MORE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING...FROM 11-14Z. MAINLY VFR
ANTICIPATED FROM 14Z ONWARD THURSDAY.

WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY...THEN BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE SW...THEN
WEST BY THE MORNING PUSH. ON THURSDAY...WINDS TURN TO THE W/NW
BEHIND THE FRONT.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. IFR OR LIFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. ON
THURSDAY...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. IFR OR LIFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. ON
THURSDAY...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. IFR OR LIFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. ON
THURSDAY...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. IFR OR LIFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. ON
THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13-14Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. IFR/LIFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.
ON THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13-15Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. IFR/LIFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. ON
THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13-15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT SUB-VFR IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST OF NYC METRO THURSDAY NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW.
WNW-NW WINDS G15-20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CANCEL THE GALE WARNING FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS GUSTS SHOULD
BE CAPPED AT 30 KT OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY 35 KT GUST...BUT
ANY GALE GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...SO WILL
DOWNGRADE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WITH SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 6-9 FT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 PERIODS...WILL
RUN THE SCA THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA FOR WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KT CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...CAUSING
WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE SE TO SW...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE NW.

NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ARND 20 KT FRI MORNING AS
LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE.

A SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI INTO FRI EVE FOR
WINDS AND SEAS DUE TO A MODEST NLY FLOW WITH LOW PRES PASSING TO
THE E. TRANQUIL CONDS THEN PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SUN. AN
SCA MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON ON AT LEAST THE
OCEAN AS A COASTAL STORM PASSES WELL S AND E OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...SEAS
SHOULD STILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 FT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
WIND FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THROUGH TONIGHT...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FORECASTS AREA WIDE REMAIN
1-1.5 INCHES WITH MINOR URBAN FLOODING OF LOW LYING POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS WITH MAXIMUM ESTIMATED HOURLY RATES OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE...LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE...OF FLASH
FLOODING...MEANING THIS IS AN ISOLATED THREAT.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...1-2 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY FOR LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT. LOW CHC OF 3-6 INCH SNOW FOR THIS SAME AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC
NEAR TERM...GC/MPS
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GC/24/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/24





000
FXUS61 KOKX 032349
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
649 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK NORTHEAST PASSING
OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY IMPACTS FROM POTENTIAL COASTAL STORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST AS MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT MVG NORTH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FORECASTS AREA WIDE REMAIN 1-1.5 INCHES WITH
MINOR URBAN FLOODING OF LOW LYING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WITH MAXIMUM
ESTIMATED HOURLY RATES OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH.

STEEP LOW LVL INVERSIONS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PREVENT
STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS
40-50 DEGREES.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR
TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR AN ACCUMULATING WET SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY EAST OF NYC ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT.

MODELS SHOW AN AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE DIGGING SE AND BECOMING
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE...ALLOWING LOW PRES TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE
COAST THU NIGHT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD TO EXPAND FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINAL AS THE PRECIP DEVELOPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE DOES COOL AND LIGHT
RAIN..QUICKLY MIXES WITH AND CHANGES TO SNOW.

BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS FRIDAY MORNING...
THE MOST LIKELY FCST...1-3 INCHES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SE CT
WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR NYC.

THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...

A SHIFT IN THE TRACK FURTHER WEST COULD RESULT IN UP TO 3-6
INCHES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT WITH HIGH IMPACT DURING
THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

A SHIFT FURTHER EAST...A DUSTING OF LESS THAN 1 INCH OR NO SNOW.

STAY TUNED. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NWP MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 FLOW INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT THEN DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DEVELOP
LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS ALSO APPARENT IN THE SUNY SB ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WHICH IS INDICATING VARIABILITY IN THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE H5 FLOW BEGINNING FRI. THIS IS THE REASON WHY
THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NOAM WILL START THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GIVING WAY TO A DIGGING TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRI NIGHT
AND WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SAT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SAT NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH DRY ON SUN. MEANWHILE...THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN TRACKING THIS SYSTEM WELL OUTSIDE OF THE 40N 70W
BENCHMARK. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z/03 ECMWF IS NOW THROWING SOME QPF BACK
INTO AREAS E OF NYC...FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE...AND HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR MON. IF THE TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST ONCE
BETTER SAMPLING OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
CAPTURED WHEN IT MOVES ONSHORE...THEN POPS WOULD NEED TO BE RAISED.

THE NEXT COASTAL STORM IS SLATED FOR LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
THIS TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND IS ALSO IMPACTED BY THE LACK OF DATA AVAILABLE OVER THE
PACIFIC. DECIDED IT WAS BEST TO STICK WITH CONTINUITY UNTIL THINGS
CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED AND HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SIGNAL FOR A MILLER TYPE B STORM
REMAINS...BUT TIMING...STRENGTH AND P-TYPE REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

THINGS DRY OUT ON WED...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT ACROSS
NW ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WEST OF THE REGION WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT...STALLING SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS ON THURSDAY.

WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN...EXPECT MVFR...IFR AND
LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE LIFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE MORE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING...FROM 11-14Z. MAINLY VFR
ANTICIPATED FROM 14Z ONWARD THURSDAY.

WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY...THEN BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE SW...THEN
WEST BY THE MORNING PUSH. ON THURSDAY...WINDS TURN TO THE W/NW
BEHIND THE FRONT.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. IFR OR LIFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. ON
THURSDAY...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. IFR OR LIFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. ON
THURSDAY...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. IFR OR LIFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. ON
THURSDAY...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. IFR OR LIFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. ON
THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13-14Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. IFR/LIFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.
ON THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13-15Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. IFR/LIFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. ON
THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13-15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT SUB-VFR IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST OF NYC METRO THURSDAY NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW.
WNW-NW WINDS G15-20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CANCEL THE GALE WARNING FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS GUSTS SHOULD
BE CAPPED AT 30 KT OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY 35 KT GUST...BUT
ANY GALE GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...SO WILL
DOWNGRADE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WITH SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 6-9 FT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 PERIODS...WILL
RUN THE SCA THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA FOR WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KT CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...CAUSING
WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE SE TO SW...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE NW.

NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ARND 20 KT FRI MORNING AS
LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE.

A SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI INTO FRI EVE FOR
WINDS AND SEAS DUE TO A MODEST NLY FLOW WITH LOW PRES PASSING TO
THE E. TRANQUIL CONDS THEN PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SUN. AN
SCA MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON ON AT LEAST THE
OCEAN AS A COASTAL STORM PASSES WELL S AND E OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...SEAS
SHOULD STILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 FT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
WIND FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THROUGH TONIGHT...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FORECASTS AREA WIDE REMAIN
1-1.5 INCHES WITH MINOR URBAN FLOODING OF LOW LYING POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS WITH MAXIMUM ESTIMATED HOURLY RATES OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE...LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE...OF FLASH
FLOODING...MEANING THIS IS AN ISOLATED THREAT.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...1-2 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY FOR LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT. LOW CHC OF 3-6 INCH SNOW FOR THIS SAME AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC
NEAR TERM...GC/MPS
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GC/24/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/24





000
FXUS61 KOKX 032135
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
435 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK NORTHEAST PASSING
OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY IMPACTS FROM POTENTIAL COASTAL STORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NE ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MVG NORTH THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FORECASTS AREA WIDE REMAIN 1-1.5 INCHES WITH
MINOR URBAN FLOODING OF LOW LYING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WITH MAXIMUM
ESTIMATED HOURLY RATES OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH.

STEEP LOW LVL INVERSIONS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PREVENT
STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS
40-50 DEGREES.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR
TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR AN ACCUMULATING WET SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY EAST OF NYC ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT.

MODELS SHOW AN AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE DIGGING SE AND BECOMING
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE...ALLOWING LOW PRES TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE
COAST THU NIGHT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD TO EXPAND FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINAL AS THE PRECIP DEVELOPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE DOES COOL AND LIGHT
RAIN..QUICKLY MIXES WITH AND CHANGES TO SNOW.

BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS FRIDAY MORNING...
THE MOST LIKELY FCST...1-3 INCHES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SE CT
WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR NYC.

THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...

A SHIFT IN THE TRACK FURTHER WEST COULD RESULT IN UP TO 3-6
INCHES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT WITH HIGH IMPACT DURING
THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

A SHIFT FURTHER EAST...A DUSTING OF LESS THAN 1 INCH OR NO SNOW.

STAY TUNED. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NWP MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 FLOW INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT THEN DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DEVELOP
LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS ALSO APPARENT IN THE SUNY SB ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WHICH IS INDICATING VARIABILITY IN THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE H5 FLOW BEGINNING FRI. THIS IS THE REASON WHY
THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NOAM WILL START THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GIVING WAY TO A DIGGING TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRI NIGHT
AND WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SAT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SAT NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH DRY ON SUN. MEANWHILE...THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN TRACKING THIS SYSTEM WELL OUTSIDE OF THE 40N 70W
BENCHMARK. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z/03 ECMWF IS NOW THROWING SOME QPF BACK
INTO AREAS E OF NYC...FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE...AND HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR MON. IF THE TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST ONCE
BETTER SAMPLING OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
CAPTURED WHEN IT MOVES ONSHORE...THEN POPS WOULD NEED TO BE RAISED.

THE NEXT COASTAL STORM IS SLATED FOR LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
THIS TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND IS ALSO IMPACTED BY THE LACK OF DATA AVAILABLE OVER THE
PACIFIC. DECIDED IT WAS BEST TO STICK WITH CONTINUITY UNTIL THINGS
CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED AND HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SIGNAL FOR A MILLER TYPE B STORM
REMAINS...BUT TIMING...STRENGTH AND P-TYPE REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

THINGS DRY OUT ON WED...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT ACROSS
NW ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
...HIGH IMPACT LLWS/COMPRESSION EVENT INTO THIS EVENING...

A COLD FRONT WEST OF THE REGION WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...STALLING SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS ON THURSDAY.

VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME IFR OR LESS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOME OF THE
HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE AT TIMES.
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT...AFTER 07Z...AS THE RAIN
ENDS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE WARM WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 10 TO
15 KTS. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
THE EXACT TIMING OF THE PASSAGE STILL UNCERTAIN.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. THE TIMING OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
ANY HEAVY RAIN MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE. GUSTS
TO 30 KT MAY LAST LONGER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. THE TIMING OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
ANY HEAVY RAIN MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE.
GUSTS TO 30 KT MAY LAST LONGER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. THE TIMING OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
ANY HEAVY RAIN MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE.
GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY LAST LONGER THAN FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. THE TIMING OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
ANY HEAVY RAIN MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE.
GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY LAST LONGER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. THE TIMING OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. ANY HEAVY RAIN MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. THE TIMING OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
ANY HEAVY RAIN MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE.
GUSTS TO 30 KT MAY LAST LONGER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR IN THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH SUB VFR
EAST OF NYC METRO IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW.
WNW-NW WINDS G15-20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS FOR WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 KT CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA FOR WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KT CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...CAUSING
WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE SE TO SW...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE NW.

NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ARND 20 KT FRI MORNING AS
LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE.

AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI INTO FRI EVE FOR WINDS
AND SEAS DUE TO A MODEST NLY FLOW WITH LOW PRES PASSING TO THE E.
TRANQUIL CONDS THEN PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SUN. AN SCA MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON ON AT LEAST THE OCEAN AS A
COASTAL STORM PASSES WELL S AND E OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...SEAS SHOULD STILL
BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 FT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND
FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THROUGH TONIGHT...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FORECASTS AREA WIDE REMAIN
1-1.5 INCHES WITH MINOR URBAN FLOODING OF LOW LYING POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS WITH MAXIMUM ESTIMATED HOURLY RATES OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE...LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE...OF FLASH
FLOODING...MEANING THIS IS AN ISOLATED THREAT.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...1-2 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY FOR LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT. LOW CHC OF 3-6 INCH SNOW FOR THIS SAME AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GC/24
HYDROLOGY...GC/24




000
FXUS61 KOKX 032135
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
435 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK NORTHEAST PASSING
OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY IMPACTS FROM POTENTIAL COASTAL STORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NE ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MVG NORTH THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FORECASTS AREA WIDE REMAIN 1-1.5 INCHES WITH
MINOR URBAN FLOODING OF LOW LYING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WITH MAXIMUM
ESTIMATED HOURLY RATES OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH.

STEEP LOW LVL INVERSIONS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PREVENT
STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS
40-50 DEGREES.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR
TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR AN ACCUMULATING WET SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY EAST OF NYC ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT.

MODELS SHOW AN AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE DIGGING SE AND BECOMING
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE...ALLOWING LOW PRES TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE
COAST THU NIGHT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD TO EXPAND FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINAL AS THE PRECIP DEVELOPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE DOES COOL AND LIGHT
RAIN..QUICKLY MIXES WITH AND CHANGES TO SNOW.

BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS FRIDAY MORNING...
THE MOST LIKELY FCST...1-3 INCHES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SE CT
WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR NYC.

THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...

A SHIFT IN THE TRACK FURTHER WEST COULD RESULT IN UP TO 3-6
INCHES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT WITH HIGH IMPACT DURING
THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

A SHIFT FURTHER EAST...A DUSTING OF LESS THAN 1 INCH OR NO SNOW.

STAY TUNED. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NWP MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 FLOW INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT THEN DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DEVELOP
LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS ALSO APPARENT IN THE SUNY SB ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WHICH IS INDICATING VARIABILITY IN THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE H5 FLOW BEGINNING FRI. THIS IS THE REASON WHY
THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NOAM WILL START THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GIVING WAY TO A DIGGING TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRI NIGHT
AND WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SAT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SAT NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH DRY ON SUN. MEANWHILE...THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN TRACKING THIS SYSTEM WELL OUTSIDE OF THE 40N 70W
BENCHMARK. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z/03 ECMWF IS NOW THROWING SOME QPF BACK
INTO AREAS E OF NYC...FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE...AND HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR MON. IF THE TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST ONCE
BETTER SAMPLING OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
CAPTURED WHEN IT MOVES ONSHORE...THEN POPS WOULD NEED TO BE RAISED.

THE NEXT COASTAL STORM IS SLATED FOR LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
THIS TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND IS ALSO IMPACTED BY THE LACK OF DATA AVAILABLE OVER THE
PACIFIC. DECIDED IT WAS BEST TO STICK WITH CONTINUITY UNTIL THINGS
CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED AND HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SIGNAL FOR A MILLER TYPE B STORM
REMAINS...BUT TIMING...STRENGTH AND P-TYPE REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

THINGS DRY OUT ON WED...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT ACROSS
NW ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
...HIGH IMPACT LLWS/COMPRESSION EVENT INTO THIS EVENING...

A COLD FRONT WEST OF THE REGION WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...STALLING SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS ON THURSDAY.

VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME IFR OR LESS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOME OF THE
HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE AT TIMES.
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT...AFTER 07Z...AS THE RAIN
ENDS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE WARM WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 10 TO
15 KTS. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
THE EXACT TIMING OF THE PASSAGE STILL UNCERTAIN.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. THE TIMING OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
ANY HEAVY RAIN MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE. GUSTS
TO 30 KT MAY LAST LONGER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. THE TIMING OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
ANY HEAVY RAIN MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE.
GUSTS TO 30 KT MAY LAST LONGER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. THE TIMING OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
ANY HEAVY RAIN MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE.
GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY LAST LONGER THAN FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. THE TIMING OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
ANY HEAVY RAIN MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE.
GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY LAST LONGER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. THE TIMING OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. ANY HEAVY RAIN MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. THE TIMING OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
ANY HEAVY RAIN MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE.
GUSTS TO 30 KT MAY LAST LONGER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR IN THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH SUB VFR
EAST OF NYC METRO IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW.
WNW-NW WINDS G15-20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS FOR WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 KT CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA FOR WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KT CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...CAUSING
WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE SE TO SW...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE NW.

NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ARND 20 KT FRI MORNING AS
LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE.

AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI INTO FRI EVE FOR WINDS
AND SEAS DUE TO A MODEST NLY FLOW WITH LOW PRES PASSING TO THE E.
TRANQUIL CONDS THEN PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SUN. AN SCA MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON ON AT LEAST THE OCEAN AS A
COASTAL STORM PASSES WELL S AND E OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...SEAS SHOULD STILL
BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 FT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND
FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THROUGH TONIGHT...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FORECASTS AREA WIDE REMAIN
1-1.5 INCHES WITH MINOR URBAN FLOODING OF LOW LYING POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS WITH MAXIMUM ESTIMATED HOURLY RATES OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE...LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE...OF FLASH
FLOODING...MEANING THIS IS AN ISOLATED THREAT.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...1-2 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY FOR LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT. LOW CHC OF 3-6 INCH SNOW FOR THIS SAME AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GC/24
HYDROLOGY...GC/24





000
FXUS61 KOKX 032135
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
435 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK NORTHEAST PASSING
OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY IMPACTS FROM POTENTIAL COASTAL STORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NE ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MVG NORTH THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FORECASTS AREA WIDE REMAIN 1-1.5 INCHES WITH
MINOR URBAN FLOODING OF LOW LYING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WITH MAXIMUM
ESTIMATED HOURLY RATES OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH.

STEEP LOW LVL INVERSIONS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PREVENT
STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS
40-50 DEGREES.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR
TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR AN ACCUMULATING WET SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY EAST OF NYC ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT.

MODELS SHOW AN AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE DIGGING SE AND BECOMING
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE...ALLOWING LOW PRES TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE
COAST THU NIGHT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD TO EXPAND FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINAL AS THE PRECIP DEVELOPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE DOES COOL AND LIGHT
RAIN..QUICKLY MIXES WITH AND CHANGES TO SNOW.

BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS FRIDAY MORNING...
THE MOST LIKELY FCST...1-3 INCHES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SE CT
WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR NYC.

THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...

A SHIFT IN THE TRACK FURTHER WEST COULD RESULT IN UP TO 3-6
INCHES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT WITH HIGH IMPACT DURING
THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

A SHIFT FURTHER EAST...A DUSTING OF LESS THAN 1 INCH OR NO SNOW.

STAY TUNED. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NWP MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 FLOW INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT THEN DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DEVELOP
LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS ALSO APPARENT IN THE SUNY SB ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WHICH IS INDICATING VARIABILITY IN THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE H5 FLOW BEGINNING FRI. THIS IS THE REASON WHY
THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NOAM WILL START THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GIVING WAY TO A DIGGING TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRI NIGHT
AND WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SAT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SAT NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH DRY ON SUN. MEANWHILE...THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN TRACKING THIS SYSTEM WELL OUTSIDE OF THE 40N 70W
BENCHMARK. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z/03 ECMWF IS NOW THROWING SOME QPF BACK
INTO AREAS E OF NYC...FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE...AND HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR MON. IF THE TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST ONCE
BETTER SAMPLING OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
CAPTURED WHEN IT MOVES ONSHORE...THEN POPS WOULD NEED TO BE RAISED.

THE NEXT COASTAL STORM IS SLATED FOR LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
THIS TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND IS ALSO IMPACTED BY THE LACK OF DATA AVAILABLE OVER THE
PACIFIC. DECIDED IT WAS BEST TO STICK WITH CONTINUITY UNTIL THINGS
CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED AND HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SIGNAL FOR A MILLER TYPE B STORM
REMAINS...BUT TIMING...STRENGTH AND P-TYPE REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

THINGS DRY OUT ON WED...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT ACROSS
NW ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
...HIGH IMPACT LLWS/COMPRESSION EVENT INTO THIS EVENING...

A COLD FRONT WEST OF THE REGION WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...STALLING SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS ON THURSDAY.

VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME IFR OR LESS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOME OF THE
HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE AT TIMES.
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT...AFTER 07Z...AS THE RAIN
ENDS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE WARM WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 10 TO
15 KTS. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
THE EXACT TIMING OF THE PASSAGE STILL UNCERTAIN.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. THE TIMING OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
ANY HEAVY RAIN MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE. GUSTS
TO 30 KT MAY LAST LONGER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. THE TIMING OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
ANY HEAVY RAIN MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE.
GUSTS TO 30 KT MAY LAST LONGER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. THE TIMING OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
ANY HEAVY RAIN MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE.
GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY LAST LONGER THAN FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. THE TIMING OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
ANY HEAVY RAIN MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE.
GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY LAST LONGER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. THE TIMING OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. ANY HEAVY RAIN MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. THE TIMING OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
ANY HEAVY RAIN MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE.
GUSTS TO 30 KT MAY LAST LONGER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR IN THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH SUB VFR
EAST OF NYC METRO IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW.
WNW-NW WINDS G15-20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS FOR WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 KT CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA FOR WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KT CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...CAUSING
WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE SE TO SW...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE NW.

NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ARND 20 KT FRI MORNING AS
LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE.

AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI INTO FRI EVE FOR WINDS
AND SEAS DUE TO A MODEST NLY FLOW WITH LOW PRES PASSING TO THE E.
TRANQUIL CONDS THEN PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SUN. AN SCA MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON ON AT LEAST THE OCEAN AS A
COASTAL STORM PASSES WELL S AND E OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...SEAS SHOULD STILL
BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 FT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND
FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THROUGH TONIGHT...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FORECASTS AREA WIDE REMAIN
1-1.5 INCHES WITH MINOR URBAN FLOODING OF LOW LYING POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS WITH MAXIMUM ESTIMATED HOURLY RATES OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE...LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE...OF FLASH
FLOODING...MEANING THIS IS AN ISOLATED THREAT.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...1-2 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY FOR LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT. LOW CHC OF 3-6 INCH SNOW FOR THIS SAME AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GC/24
HYDROLOGY...GC/24





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