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000
FXUS61 KOKX 231957
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE COAST
TOWARDS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW REMAINS
OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE CENTER NEARBY WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS TONIGHT. SOME CIRRUS WILL PROBABLY STREAM IN FROM THE
SOUTH...BUT OVERALL DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. A MAV/NAM
MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NORTH FROM LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS WELL WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING OVER THE AREA.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...PREFERRED STARTING WITH THE COOLER MAV MOS
AND KNOCKED OFF A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS CONSIDERS THAT WE WILL LIKELY
NOT HAVE AS MUCH INSOLATION AS TODAY...AND TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER DO NOT INCREASE ALL THAT MUCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE AND ITS MOISTURE CONTINUE TO HEAD NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT RAIN BECOMES LIKELY AT
LEAST FOR SOME OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE AT NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING
GOOD 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND A LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING IN DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS UP ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF
THE LOW WITH THE NAM CLOSEST TO THE COAST AND THE GFS THE MOST EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER ALL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A WET
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY. THE LOW WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST
THURSDAY EVENING AS AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. HAVE
LINGERED POPS INTO EARLY FRIDAY AND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND SPEED
OF THE LOW PRECIPITATION COULD LAST A LITTLE LONGER.

RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING EAST WILL
HAVE DRY FORECAST FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. A DEEPENING
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE RIDGE MONDAY AND A SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF EASTERN CANADA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

LIGHT FLOW THRU THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZE AT IMMEDIATE
COAST...RESULTING IN SW-SSW FLOW 5-10 KTS. FEW-SCT HIGH LVL CLOUDS
THRU TONIGHT.

LIGHT/VRB FLOW OVERNIGHT...INCREASING FROM THE ENE TOMORROW AFTR
12Z...WITH OCNL GUSTS MIXING IN BY 15/16Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MOD CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION THIS
AFTN...WINDS AROUND 5 KTS BOUNCING BETWEEN SW AND W FLOW.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MOD CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION THIS
AFTN...WINDS MAY BECOME MORE LIGHT/VRB.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PSBL SEA BREEZE AROUND 20Z...WINDS MAY
BECOME SW 5-7 KTS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED...VFR. E FLOW 10-15G20-25KT.
.WED NIGHT-THUR...LOW PRES TRACKS UP THE COAST. MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WITH PCPN. NE FLOW 10-15G20-25KT.
.FRI...BCMG VFR WITH N WINDS 10-15KT.
.SAT...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS FOR TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

WINDS THEN PICK UP WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE
EAST...SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE SCA CONDITIONS
WILL BE MET ON THE OCEAN BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE GO
WITH A SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE IT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...THERE COULD BE SOME
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SOMETHING THAT WOULD OCCUR IN THE 3RD PERIOD...WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANYTHING FOR NOW.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING UP THE COAST THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING EASTERLY WIND. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
DURING THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THURSDAY. AS THE WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL
BE A SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

THEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WIND
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES...IS
LIKELY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT  NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW FROM TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A NEW MOON WEDNESDAY...WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE  E CYCLE...MAINLY
ALONG VULNERABLE NY HARBOR...NYC/WESTERN LI BACK BAY AND WESTERN
SOUND LOCATIONS.

MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL BE LIKELY WITH A 2 DAY DURATION OF ROUGH
SURF SWEEPING DOWNSHORE FROM EAST TO WEST...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 231957
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE COAST
TOWARDS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW REMAINS
OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE CENTER NEARBY WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS TONIGHT. SOME CIRRUS WILL PROBABLY STREAM IN FROM THE
SOUTH...BUT OVERALL DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. A MAV/NAM
MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NORTH FROM LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS WELL WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING OVER THE AREA.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...PREFERRED STARTING WITH THE COOLER MAV MOS
AND KNOCKED OFF A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS CONSIDERS THAT WE WILL LIKELY
NOT HAVE AS MUCH INSOLATION AS TODAY...AND TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER DO NOT INCREASE ALL THAT MUCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE AND ITS MOISTURE CONTINUE TO HEAD NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT RAIN BECOMES LIKELY AT
LEAST FOR SOME OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE AT NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING
GOOD 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND A LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING IN DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS UP ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF
THE LOW WITH THE NAM CLOSEST TO THE COAST AND THE GFS THE MOST EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER ALL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A WET
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY. THE LOW WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST
THURSDAY EVENING AS AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. HAVE
LINGERED POPS INTO EARLY FRIDAY AND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND SPEED
OF THE LOW PRECIPITATION COULD LAST A LITTLE LONGER.

RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING EAST WILL
HAVE DRY FORECAST FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. A DEEPENING
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE RIDGE MONDAY AND A SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF EASTERN CANADA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

LIGHT FLOW THRU THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZE AT IMMEDIATE
COAST...RESULTING IN SW-SSW FLOW 5-10 KTS. FEW-SCT HIGH LVL CLOUDS
THRU TONIGHT.

LIGHT/VRB FLOW OVERNIGHT...INCREASING FROM THE ENE TOMORROW AFTR
12Z...WITH OCNL GUSTS MIXING IN BY 15/16Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MOD CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION THIS
AFTN...WINDS AROUND 5 KTS BOUNCING BETWEEN SW AND W FLOW.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MOD CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION THIS
AFTN...WINDS MAY BECOME MORE LIGHT/VRB.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PSBL SEA BREEZE AROUND 20Z...WINDS MAY
BECOME SW 5-7 KTS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED...VFR. E FLOW 10-15G20-25KT.
.WED NIGHT-THUR...LOW PRES TRACKS UP THE COAST. MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WITH PCPN. NE FLOW 10-15G20-25KT.
.FRI...BCMG VFR WITH N WINDS 10-15KT.
.SAT...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS FOR TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

WINDS THEN PICK UP WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE
EAST...SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE SCA CONDITIONS
WILL BE MET ON THE OCEAN BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE GO
WITH A SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE IT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...THERE COULD BE SOME
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SOMETHING THAT WOULD OCCUR IN THE 3RD PERIOD...WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANYTHING FOR NOW.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING UP THE COAST THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING EASTERLY WIND. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
DURING THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THURSDAY. AS THE WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL
BE A SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

THEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WIND
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES...IS
LIKELY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT  NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW FROM TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A NEW MOON WEDNESDAY...WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE  E CYCLE...MAINLY
ALONG VULNERABLE NY HARBOR...NYC/WESTERN LI BACK BAY AND WESTERN
SOUND LOCATIONS.

MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL BE LIKELY WITH A 2 DAY DURATION OF ROUGH
SURF SWEEPING DOWNSHORE FROM EAST TO WEST...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 231737
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
137 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THEN EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL DRIFT UP
TOWARDS THE REGION FOR THE MID WEEK AND THEN OUT TO SEA FOR LATE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. SUNNY OUTSIDE OF A FEW THIN
CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE AREA.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A CHANCE OF SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE.

TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE WITH MIXING LIMITED
UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND RECENT SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR. TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A CUTOFF SOUTHERN UPPER LOW SHEARING NE AROUND
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING ON WED.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE NE TONIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS FOR FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS...AND
LOWER TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. IF NE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK...A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR/PINE
BARRENS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE JUST EAST OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON WED...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHERN
COASTAL TROUGH/WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP THE COAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE REGION UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
ON WED...BUT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT LIGHT
RAIN COULD WORK INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE BY LATE DAY
WED. A STRENGTHENING NE GRADIENT IS LIKELY BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE FLOW...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST.

TEMP GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...WITH
TEMPS POTENTIALLY RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE WITH ONSHORE
FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET BLEND
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE CENTER SHIFTING JUST OFF THE
MAINE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE SOUTH
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTH.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AROUND THIS LOW IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND
INTENSITY...AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. LATEST GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE
WETTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS LOW. GFS/CMC ARE
FASTEST/WETTEST WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
ECMWF/NAM KEEP THE LOW SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH WITH RAIN NOT
BEGINNING TILL LATE THURSDAY. THE REAL QUESTION WILL BE IF THE
HIGH PRESSURE CAN HOLD OFF THE RAIN AND UNTIL WHEN. FOR NOW...DID
PUT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING WHICH
IS A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO
ANY HIGHER THAN THAT AT THIS TIME.

AS THE LOW APPROACHES...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND NE WINDS INCREASE
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE ON LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT.

LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMP GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AS WELL DEPENDING ON
HOW THE LOW PRESSURE PLAYS OUT. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE RANGE OF VALUES
FOR THURS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...COOLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...A GENERAL
GMOS/WPC BLEND WAS USED WITH TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THEN TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

LIGHT FLOW THRU THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZE AT IMMEDIATE
COAST...RESULTING IN SW-SSW FLOW 5-10 KTS. FEW-SCT HIGH LVL CLOUDS
THRU TONIGHT.

LIGHT/VRB FLOW OVERNIGHT...INCREASING FROM THE ENE TOMORROW AFTR
12Z...WITH OCNL GUSTS MIXING IN BY 15/16Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MOD CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION THIS
AFTN...WINDS AROUND 5 KTS BOUNCING BETWEEN SW AND W FLOW.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MOD CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION THIS
AFTN...WINDS MAY BECOME MORE LIGHT/VRB.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PSBL SEA BREEZE AROUND 20Z...WINDS MAY
BECOME SW 5-7 KTS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED...VFR. E FLOW 10-15G20-25KT.
.WED NIGHT-THUR...LOW PRES TRACKS UP THE COAST. MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WITH PCPN. NE FLOW 10-15G20-25KT.
.FRI...BCMG VFR WITH N WINDS 10-15KT.
.SAT...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SE SWELLS AND NW WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WITH SUB SCA CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WATERS.

MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK FARTHER
NORTHWARD FOR THE THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING E/NE GRADIENT ON WED WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDS
BY LATE IN THE DAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SCA OCEAN SEAS LIKELY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTH. GUSTS ABOVE 25KT WILL ALSO
LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL THE GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTS OF
30-34KT AS WELL WED-THU BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FT WED NIGHT/THU IF
STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZE.

SUB SCA WINDS AND SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND POSSIBLY IMPACT THE AREA WED
NIGHT-FRI. A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
AND QUICKLY THE PRECIP SHIELD GETS. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WED NIGHT/THU...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND NEW MOON WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH THU MORN/AFT HIGH TIDE CYCLE...MAINLY ALONG
VULNERABLE NY HARBOR...NYC/WESTERN LI BACK BAY AND WESTERN SOUND
LOCATIONS.

WITH THE HIGHER WATER LEVELS...MINOR BEACH EROSION LIKELY WITH 2 DAY
DURATION OF ROUGH SURF SWEEPING DOWNSHORE FROM E TO W.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LN/NV
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...LN/NV
HYDROLOGY...LN/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 231737
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
137 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THEN EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL DRIFT UP
TOWARDS THE REGION FOR THE MID WEEK AND THEN OUT TO SEA FOR LATE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. SUNNY OUTSIDE OF A FEW THIN
CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE AREA.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A CHANCE OF SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE.

TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE WITH MIXING LIMITED
UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND RECENT SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR. TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A CUTOFF SOUTHERN UPPER LOW SHEARING NE AROUND
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING ON WED.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE NE TONIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS FOR FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS...AND
LOWER TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. IF NE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK...A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR/PINE
BARRENS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE JUST EAST OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON WED...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHERN
COASTAL TROUGH/WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP THE COAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE REGION UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
ON WED...BUT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT LIGHT
RAIN COULD WORK INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE BY LATE DAY
WED. A STRENGTHENING NE GRADIENT IS LIKELY BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE FLOW...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST.

TEMP GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...WITH
TEMPS POTENTIALLY RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE WITH ONSHORE
FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET BLEND
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE CENTER SHIFTING JUST OFF THE
MAINE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE SOUTH
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTH.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AROUND THIS LOW IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND
INTENSITY...AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. LATEST GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE
WETTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS LOW. GFS/CMC ARE
FASTEST/WETTEST WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
ECMWF/NAM KEEP THE LOW SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH WITH RAIN NOT
BEGINNING TILL LATE THURSDAY. THE REAL QUESTION WILL BE IF THE
HIGH PRESSURE CAN HOLD OFF THE RAIN AND UNTIL WHEN. FOR NOW...DID
PUT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING WHICH
IS A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO
ANY HIGHER THAN THAT AT THIS TIME.

AS THE LOW APPROACHES...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND NE WINDS INCREASE
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE ON LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT.

LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMP GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AS WELL DEPENDING ON
HOW THE LOW PRESSURE PLAYS OUT. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE RANGE OF VALUES
FOR THURS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...COOLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...A GENERAL
GMOS/WPC BLEND WAS USED WITH TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THEN TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

LIGHT FLOW THRU THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZE AT IMMEDIATE
COAST...RESULTING IN SW-SSW FLOW 5-10 KTS. FEW-SCT HIGH LVL CLOUDS
THRU TONIGHT.

LIGHT/VRB FLOW OVERNIGHT...INCREASING FROM THE ENE TOMORROW AFTR
12Z...WITH OCNL GUSTS MIXING IN BY 15/16Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MOD CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION THIS
AFTN...WINDS AROUND 5 KTS BOUNCING BETWEEN SW AND W FLOW.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MOD CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION THIS
AFTN...WINDS MAY BECOME MORE LIGHT/VRB.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PSBL SEA BREEZE AROUND 20Z...WINDS MAY
BECOME SW 5-7 KTS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED...VFR. E FLOW 10-15G20-25KT.
.WED NIGHT-THUR...LOW PRES TRACKS UP THE COAST. MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WITH PCPN. NE FLOW 10-15G20-25KT.
.FRI...BCMG VFR WITH N WINDS 10-15KT.
.SAT...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SE SWELLS AND NW WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WITH SUB SCA CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WATERS.

MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK FARTHER
NORTHWARD FOR THE THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING E/NE GRADIENT ON WED WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDS
BY LATE IN THE DAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SCA OCEAN SEAS LIKELY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTH. GUSTS ABOVE 25KT WILL ALSO
LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL THE GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTS OF
30-34KT AS WELL WED-THU BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FT WED NIGHT/THU IF
STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZE.

SUB SCA WINDS AND SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND POSSIBLY IMPACT THE AREA WED
NIGHT-FRI. A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
AND QUICKLY THE PRECIP SHIELD GETS. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WED NIGHT/THU...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND NEW MOON WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH THU MORN/AFT HIGH TIDE CYCLE...MAINLY ALONG
VULNERABLE NY HARBOR...NYC/WESTERN LI BACK BAY AND WESTERN SOUND
LOCATIONS.

WITH THE HIGHER WATER LEVELS...MINOR BEACH EROSION LIKELY WITH 2 DAY
DURATION OF ROUGH SURF SWEEPING DOWNSHORE FROM E TO W.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LN/NV
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...LN/NV
HYDROLOGY...LN/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 231648
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1248 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THEN EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL DRIFT UP
TOWARDS THE REGION FOR THE MID WEEK AND THEN OUT TO SEA FOR LATE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. SUNNY OUTSIDE OF A FEW THIN
CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE AREA.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A CHANCE OF SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE.

TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE WITH MIXING LIMITED
UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND RECENT SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR. TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A CUTOFF SOUTHERN UPPER LOW SHEARING NE AROUND
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING ON WED.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE NE TONIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS FOR FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS...AND
LOWER TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. IF NE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK...A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR/PINE
BARRENS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE JUST EAST OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON WED...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHERN
COASTAL TROUGH/WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP THE COAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE REGION UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
ON WED...BUT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT LIGHT
RAIN COULD WORK INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE BY LATE DAY
WED. A STRENGTHENING NE GRADIENT IS LIKELY BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE FLOW...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST.

TEMP GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...WITH
TEMPS POTENTIALLY RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE WITH ONSHORE
FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET BLEND
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE CENTER SHIFTING JUST OFF THE
MAINE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE SOUTH
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTH.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AROUND THIS LOW IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND
INTENSITY...AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. LATEST GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE
WETTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS LOW. GFS/CMC ARE
FASTEST/WETTEST WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
ECMWF/NAM KEEP THE LOW SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH WITH RAIN NOT
BEGINNING TILL LATE THURSDAY. THE REAL QUESTION WILL BE IF THE
HIGH PRESSURE CAN HOLD OFF THE RAIN AND UNTIL WHEN. FOR NOW...DID
PUT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING WHICH
IS A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO
ANY HIGHER THAN THAT AT THIS TIME.

AS THE LOW APPROACHES...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND NE WINDS INCREASE
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE ON LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT.

LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMP GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AS WELL DEPENDING ON
HOW THE LOW PRESSURE PLAYS OUT. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE RANGE OF VALUES
FOR THURS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...COOLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...A GENERAL
GMOS/WPC BLEND WAS USED WITH TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THEN TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

LIGHT NW FLOW...WITH PSBL SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AT IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SITES.

FEW MID-HIGH LVL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...VFR. E FLOW 10-15G20-25KT.
.WED NIGHT-THUR...LOW PRES TRACKS UP THE COAST. MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WITH PCPN. NE FLOW 10-15G20-25KT.
.FRI...BCMG VFR WITH N WINDS 10-15KT.
.SAT...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SE SWELLS AND NW WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WITH SUB SCA CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WATERS.

MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK FARTHER
NORTHWARD FOR THE THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING E/NE GRADIENT ON WED WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDS
BY LATE IN THE DAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SCA OCEAN SEAS LIKELY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTH. GUSTS ABOVE 25KT WILL ALSO
LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL THE GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTS OF
30-34KT AS WELL WED-THU BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FT WED NIGHT/THU IF
STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZE.

SUB SCA WINDS AND SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND POSSIBLY IMPACT THE AREA WED
NIGHT-FRI. A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
AND QUICKLY THE PRECIP SHIELD GETS. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WED NIGHT/THU...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND NEW MOON WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH THU MORN/AFT HIGH TIDE CYCLE...MAINLY ALONG
VULNERABLE NY HARBOR...NYC/WESTERN LI BACK BAY AND WESTERN SOUND
LOCATIONS.

WITH THE HIGHER WATER LEVELS...MINOR BEACH EROSION LIKELY WITH 2 DAY
DURATION OF ROUGH SURF SWEEPING DOWNSHORE FROM E TO W.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LN/NV
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...LN/NV
HYDROLOGY...LN/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 231412
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1012 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THEN EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL DRIFT UP
TOWARDS THE REGION FOR THE MID WEEK AND THEN OUT TO SEA FOR LATE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH SE CANADA
TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

DEEP NW FLOW SHOULD LIMIT CLOUD COVER TO JUST FEW-SCT INSTABILITY
CU ACROSS INTERIOR. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE DAY
SEA BREEZE ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE NW FLOW DIMINISHES.

TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE WITH MIXING LIMITED
UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND RECENT SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR. TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES THIS
MORNING DUE TO RESIDUAL SE SWELLS. THE THREAT LIKELY TRANSITIONS
TO LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SWELLS SUBSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A CUTOFF SOUTHERN UPPER LOW SHEARING NE AROUND
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING ON WED.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE NE TONIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS FOR FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS...AND
LOWER TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. IF NE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK...A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR/PINE
BARRENS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE JUST EAST OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON WED...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHERN
COASTAL TROUGH/WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP THE COAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE REGION UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
ON WED...BUT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT LIGHT
RAIN COULD WORK INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE BY LATE DAY
WED. A STRENGTHENING NE GRADIENT IS LIKELY BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE FLOW...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST.

TEMP GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...WITH
TEMPS POTENTIALLY RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE WITH ONSHORE
FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET BLEND
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE CENTER SHIFTING JUST OFF THE
MAINE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE SOUTH
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTH.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AROUND THIS LOW IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND
INTENSITY...AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. LATEST GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE
WETTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS LOW. GFS/CMC ARE
FASTEST/WETTEST WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
ECMWF/NAM KEEP THE LOW SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH WITH RAIN NOT
BEGINNING TILL LATE THURSDAY. THE REAL QUESTION WILL BE IF THE
HIGH PRESSURE CAN HOLD OFF THE RAIN AND UNTIL WHEN. FOR NOW...DID
PUT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING WHICH
IS A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO
ANY HIGHER THAN THAT AT THIS TIME.

AS THE LOW APPROACHES...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND NE WINDS INCREASE
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE ON LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT.

LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMP GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AS WELL DEPENDING ON
HOW THE LOW PRESSURE PLAYS OUT. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE RANGE OF VALUES
FOR THURS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...COOLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...A GENERAL
GMOS/WPC BLEND WAS USED WITH TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THEN TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

LIGHT NW FLOW...WITH PSBL SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AT IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SITES.

FEW MID-HIGH LVL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...VFR. E FLOW 10-15G20-25KT.
.WED NIGHT-THUR...LOW PRES TRACKS UP THE COAST. MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WITH PCPN. NE FLOW 10-15G20-25KT.
.FRI...BCMG VFR WITH N WINDS 10-15KT.
.SAT...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SE SWELLS AND NW WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING WITH SUB
SCA CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE
WATERS.

MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK FARTHER
NORTHWARD FOR THE THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING E/NE GRADIENT ON WED WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDS
BY LATE IN THE DAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SCA OCEAN SEAS LIKELY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTH. GUSTS ABOVE 25KT WILL ALSO
LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL THE GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTS OF
30-34KT AS WELL WED-THU BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FT WED NIGHT/THU IF
STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZE.

SUB SCA WINDS AND SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND POSSIBLY IMPACT THE AREA WED
NIGHT-FRI. A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
AND QUICKLY THE PRECIP SHIELD GETS. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WED NIGHT/THU...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND NEW MOON WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH THU MORN/AFT HIGH TIDE CYCLE...MAINLY ALONG
VULNERABLE NY HARBOR...NYC/WESTERN LI BACK BAY AND WESTERN SOUND
LOCATIONS.

WITH THE HIGHER WATER LEVELS...MINOR BEACH EROSION LIKELY WITH 2 DAY
DURATION OF ROUGH SURF SWEEPING DOWNSHORE FROM E TO W.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LN/NV
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...LN/NV
HYDROLOGY...LN/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 231412
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1012 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THEN EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL DRIFT UP
TOWARDS THE REGION FOR THE MID WEEK AND THEN OUT TO SEA FOR LATE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH SE CANADA
TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

DEEP NW FLOW SHOULD LIMIT CLOUD COVER TO JUST FEW-SCT INSTABILITY
CU ACROSS INTERIOR. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE DAY
SEA BREEZE ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE NW FLOW DIMINISHES.

TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE WITH MIXING LIMITED
UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND RECENT SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR. TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES THIS
MORNING DUE TO RESIDUAL SE SWELLS. THE THREAT LIKELY TRANSITIONS
TO LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SWELLS SUBSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A CUTOFF SOUTHERN UPPER LOW SHEARING NE AROUND
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING ON WED.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE NE TONIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS FOR FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS...AND
LOWER TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. IF NE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK...A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR/PINE
BARRENS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE JUST EAST OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON WED...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHERN
COASTAL TROUGH/WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP THE COAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE REGION UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
ON WED...BUT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT LIGHT
RAIN COULD WORK INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE BY LATE DAY
WED. A STRENGTHENING NE GRADIENT IS LIKELY BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE FLOW...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST.

TEMP GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...WITH
TEMPS POTENTIALLY RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE WITH ONSHORE
FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET BLEND
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE CENTER SHIFTING JUST OFF THE
MAINE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE SOUTH
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTH.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AROUND THIS LOW IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND
INTENSITY...AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. LATEST GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE
WETTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS LOW. GFS/CMC ARE
FASTEST/WETTEST WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
ECMWF/NAM KEEP THE LOW SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH WITH RAIN NOT
BEGINNING TILL LATE THURSDAY. THE REAL QUESTION WILL BE IF THE
HIGH PRESSURE CAN HOLD OFF THE RAIN AND UNTIL WHEN. FOR NOW...DID
PUT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING WHICH
IS A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO
ANY HIGHER THAN THAT AT THIS TIME.

AS THE LOW APPROACHES...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND NE WINDS INCREASE
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE ON LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT.

LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMP GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AS WELL DEPENDING ON
HOW THE LOW PRESSURE PLAYS OUT. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE RANGE OF VALUES
FOR THURS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...COOLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...A GENERAL
GMOS/WPC BLEND WAS USED WITH TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THEN TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

LIGHT NW FLOW...WITH PSBL SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AT IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SITES.

FEW MID-HIGH LVL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...VFR. E FLOW 10-15G20-25KT.
.WED NIGHT-THUR...LOW PRES TRACKS UP THE COAST. MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WITH PCPN. NE FLOW 10-15G20-25KT.
.FRI...BCMG VFR WITH N WINDS 10-15KT.
.SAT...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SE SWELLS AND NW WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING WITH SUB
SCA CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE
WATERS.

MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK FARTHER
NORTHWARD FOR THE THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING E/NE GRADIENT ON WED WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDS
BY LATE IN THE DAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SCA OCEAN SEAS LIKELY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTH. GUSTS ABOVE 25KT WILL ALSO
LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL THE GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTS OF
30-34KT AS WELL WED-THU BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FT WED NIGHT/THU IF
STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZE.

SUB SCA WINDS AND SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND POSSIBLY IMPACT THE AREA WED
NIGHT-FRI. A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
AND QUICKLY THE PRECIP SHIELD GETS. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WED NIGHT/THU...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND NEW MOON WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH THU MORN/AFT HIGH TIDE CYCLE...MAINLY ALONG
VULNERABLE NY HARBOR...NYC/WESTERN LI BACK BAY AND WESTERN SOUND
LOCATIONS.

WITH THE HIGHER WATER LEVELS...MINOR BEACH EROSION LIKELY WITH 2 DAY
DURATION OF ROUGH SURF SWEEPING DOWNSHORE FROM E TO W.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LN/NV
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...LN/NV
HYDROLOGY...LN/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 231401
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1001 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THEN EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL DRIFT UP
TOWARDS THE REGION FOR THE MID WEEK AND THEN OUT TO SEA FOR LATE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH SE CANADA
TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

DEEP NW FLOW SHOULD LIMIT CLOUD COVER TO JUST FEW-SCT INSTABILITY
CU ACROSS INTERIOR. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE DAY
SEA BREEZE ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE NW FLOW DIMINISHES.

TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE WITH MIXING LIMITED
UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND RECENT SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR. TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES THIS
MORNING DUE TO RESIDUAL SE SWELLS. THE THREAT LIKELY TRANSITIONS
TO LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SWELLS SUBSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A CUTOFF SOUTHERN UPPER LOW SHEARING NE AROUND
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING ON WED.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE NE TONIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS FOR FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS...AND
LOWER TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. IF NE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK...A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR/PINE
BARRENS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE JUST EAST OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON WED...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHERN
COASTAL TROUGH/WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP THE COAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE REGION UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
ON WED...BUT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT LIGHT
RAIN COULD WORK INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE BY LATE DAY
WED. A STRENGTHENING NE GRADIENT IS LIKELY BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE FLOW...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST.

TEMP GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...WITH
TEMPS POTENTIALLY RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE WITH ONSHORE
FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET BLEND
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE CENTER SHIFTING JUST OFF THE
MAINE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE SOUTH
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTH.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AROUND THIS LOW IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND
INTENSITY...AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. LATEST GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE
WETTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS LOW. GFS/CMC ARE
FASTEST/WETTEST WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
ECMWF/NAM KEEP THE LOW SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH WITH RAIN NOT
BEGINNING TILL LATE THURSDAY. THE REAL QUESTION WILL BE IF THE
HIGH PRESSURE CAN HOLD OFF THE RAIN AND UNTIL WHEN. FOR NOW...DID
PUT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING WHICH
IS A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO
ANY HIGHER THAN THAT AT THIS TIME.

AS THE LOW APPROACHES...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND NE WINDS INCREASE
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE ON LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT.

LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMP GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AS WELL DEPENDING ON
HOW THE LOW PRESSURE PLAYS OUT. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE RANGE OF VALUES
FOR THURS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...COOLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...A GENERAL
GMOS/WPC BLEND WAS USED WITH TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THEN TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THRU TNGT...THEN SETTLE OVER
NRN NEW ENGLAND ON WED.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NW FLOW BECOMES VRB BY 16-18Z...WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COASTS IN THE AFTN.

SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE EXPECTED THRU 16-18Z.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED-THU...LOW PRES TRACKS UP THE COAST. CHC MVFR OR LOWER AT
TIMES. E WINDS WED BECOMING N ON THU. SPEEDS 10-15KT POTENTIALLY
STRONGER DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
.FRI...BECOMING VFR WITH N WINDS 10-15KT.
.SAT...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SE SWELLS AND NW WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING WITH SUB
SCA CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE
WATERS.

MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK FARTHER
NORTHWARD FOR THE THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING E/NE GRADIENT ON WED WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDS
BY LATE IN THE DAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SCA OCEAN SEAS LIKELY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTH. GUSTS ABOVE 25KT WILL ALSO
LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL THE GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTS OF
30-34KT AS WELL WED-THU BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FT WED NIGHT/THU IF
STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZE.

SUB SCA WINDS AND SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND POSSIBLY IMPACT THE AREA WED
NIGHT-FRI. A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
AND QUICKLY THE PRECIP SHIELD GETS. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WED NIGHT/THU...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND NEW MOON WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH THU MORN/AFT HIGH TIDE CYCLE...MAINLY ALONG
VULNERABLE NY HARBOR...NYC/WESTERN LI BACK BAY AND WESTERN SOUND
LOCATIONS.

WITH THE HIGHER WATER LEVELS...MINOR BEACH EROSION LIKELY WITH 2 DAY
DURATION OF ROUGH SURF SWEEPING DOWNSHORE FROM E TO W.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LN/NV
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...LN/NV
HYDROLOGY...LN/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 231401
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1001 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THEN EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL DRIFT UP
TOWARDS THE REGION FOR THE MID WEEK AND THEN OUT TO SEA FOR LATE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH SE CANADA
TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

DEEP NW FLOW SHOULD LIMIT CLOUD COVER TO JUST FEW-SCT INSTABILITY
CU ACROSS INTERIOR. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE DAY
SEA BREEZE ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE NW FLOW DIMINISHES.

TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE WITH MIXING LIMITED
UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND RECENT SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR. TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES THIS
MORNING DUE TO RESIDUAL SE SWELLS. THE THREAT LIKELY TRANSITIONS
TO LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SWELLS SUBSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A CUTOFF SOUTHERN UPPER LOW SHEARING NE AROUND
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING ON WED.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE NE TONIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS FOR FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS...AND
LOWER TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. IF NE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK...A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR/PINE
BARRENS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE JUST EAST OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON WED...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHERN
COASTAL TROUGH/WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP THE COAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE REGION UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
ON WED...BUT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT LIGHT
RAIN COULD WORK INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE BY LATE DAY
WED. A STRENGTHENING NE GRADIENT IS LIKELY BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE FLOW...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST.

TEMP GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...WITH
TEMPS POTENTIALLY RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE WITH ONSHORE
FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET BLEND
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE CENTER SHIFTING JUST OFF THE
MAINE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE SOUTH
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTH.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AROUND THIS LOW IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND
INTENSITY...AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. LATEST GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE
WETTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS LOW. GFS/CMC ARE
FASTEST/WETTEST WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
ECMWF/NAM KEEP THE LOW SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH WITH RAIN NOT
BEGINNING TILL LATE THURSDAY. THE REAL QUESTION WILL BE IF THE
HIGH PRESSURE CAN HOLD OFF THE RAIN AND UNTIL WHEN. FOR NOW...DID
PUT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING WHICH
IS A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO
ANY HIGHER THAN THAT AT THIS TIME.

AS THE LOW APPROACHES...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND NE WINDS INCREASE
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE ON LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT.

LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMP GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AS WELL DEPENDING ON
HOW THE LOW PRESSURE PLAYS OUT. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE RANGE OF VALUES
FOR THURS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...COOLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...A GENERAL
GMOS/WPC BLEND WAS USED WITH TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THEN TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THRU TNGT...THEN SETTLE OVER
NRN NEW ENGLAND ON WED.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NW FLOW BECOMES VRB BY 16-18Z...WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COASTS IN THE AFTN.

SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE EXPECTED THRU 16-18Z.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED-THU...LOW PRES TRACKS UP THE COAST. CHC MVFR OR LOWER AT
TIMES. E WINDS WED BECOMING N ON THU. SPEEDS 10-15KT POTENTIALLY
STRONGER DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
.FRI...BECOMING VFR WITH N WINDS 10-15KT.
.SAT...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SE SWELLS AND NW WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING WITH SUB
SCA CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE
WATERS.

MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK FARTHER
NORTHWARD FOR THE THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING E/NE GRADIENT ON WED WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDS
BY LATE IN THE DAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SCA OCEAN SEAS LIKELY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTH. GUSTS ABOVE 25KT WILL ALSO
LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL THE GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTS OF
30-34KT AS WELL WED-THU BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FT WED NIGHT/THU IF
STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZE.

SUB SCA WINDS AND SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND POSSIBLY IMPACT THE AREA WED
NIGHT-FRI. A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
AND QUICKLY THE PRECIP SHIELD GETS. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WED NIGHT/THU...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND NEW MOON WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH THU MORN/AFT HIGH TIDE CYCLE...MAINLY ALONG
VULNERABLE NY HARBOR...NYC/WESTERN LI BACK BAY AND WESTERN SOUND
LOCATIONS.

WITH THE HIGHER WATER LEVELS...MINOR BEACH EROSION LIKELY WITH 2 DAY
DURATION OF ROUGH SURF SWEEPING DOWNSHORE FROM E TO W.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LN/NV
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...LN/NV
HYDROLOGY...LN/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 231136
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
736 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THEN EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL DRIFT UP
TOWARDS THE REGION FOR THE MID WEEK AND THEN OUT TO SEA FOR LATE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH SE
CANADA TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

N/NW FLOW THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LATE DAY
SEABREEZE ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST.

DEEP NW FLOW SHOULD LIMIT CLOUD COVER TO JUST FEW-SCT INSTABILITY CU
ACROSS INTERIOR.

TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE WITH MIXING LIMITED
UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND RECENT SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR. TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES THIS
MORNING DUE TO RESIDUAL SE SWELLS. THE THREAT LIKELY TRANSITIONS
TO LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SWELLS SUBSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A CUTOFF SOUTHERN UPPER LOW SHEARING NE AROUND
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING ON WED.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE NE TONIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS FOR FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS...AND
LOWER TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. IF NE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK...A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR/PINE
BARRENS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE JUST EAST OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON WED...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHERN
COASTAL TROUGH/WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP THE COAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE REGION UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
ON WED...BUT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT LIGHT
RAIN COULD WORK INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE BY LATE DAY
WED. A STRENGTHENING NE GRADIENT IS LIKELY BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE FLOW...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST.

TEMP GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...WITH
TEMPS POTENTIALLY RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE WITH ONSHORE
FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET BLEND
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE CENTER SHIFTING JUST OFF THE
MAINE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE SOUTH
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTH.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AROUND THIS LOW IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND
INTENSITY...AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. LATEST GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE
WETTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS LOW. GFS/CMC ARE
FASTEST/WETTEST WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
ECMWF/NAM KEEP THE LOW SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH WITH RAIN NOT
BEGINNING TILL LATE THURSDAY. THE REAL QUESTION WILL BE IF THE
HIGH PRESSURE CAN HOLD OFF THE RAIN AND UNTIL WHEN. FOR NOW...DID
PUT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING WHICH
IS A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO
ANY HIGHER THAN THAT AT THIS TIME.

AS THE LOW APPROACHES...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND NE WINDS INCREASE
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE ON LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT.

LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMP GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AS WELL DEPENDING ON
HOW THE LOW PRESSURE PLAYS OUT. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE RANGE OF VALUES
FOR THURS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...COOLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...A GENERAL
GMOS/WPC BLEND WAS USED WITH TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THEN TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THRU TNGT...THEN SETTLE OVER
NRN NEW ENGLAND ON WED.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NW FLOW BECOMES VRB BY 16-18Z...WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COASTS IN THE AFTN.

SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE EXPECTED THRU 16-18Z.


...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED-THU...LOW PRES TRACKS UP THE COAST. CHC MVFR OR LOWER AT
TIMES. E WINDS WED BECOMING N ON THU. SPEEDS 10-15KT POTENTIALLY
STRONGER DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
.FRI...BECOMING VFR WITH N WINDS 10-15KT.
.SAT...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SE SWELLS AND NW WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING WITH SUB
SCA CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE
WATERS.

MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK FARTHER
NORTHWARD FOR THE THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING E/NE GRADIENT ON WED WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDS
BY LATE IN THE DAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SCA OCEAN SEAS LIKELY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTH. GUSTS ABOVE 25KT WILL ALSO
LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL THE GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTS OF
30-34KT AS WELL WED-THU BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FT WED NIGHT/THU IF
STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZE.

SUB SCA WINDS AND SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND POSSIBLY IMPACT THE AREA WED
NIGHT-FRI. A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
AND QUICKLY THE PRECIP SHIELD GETS. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WED NIGHT/THU...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND NEW MOON WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH THU MORN/AFT HIGH TIDE CYCLE...MAINLY ALONG
VULNERABLE NY HARBOR...NYC/WESTERN LI BACK BAY AND WESTERN SOUND
LOCATIONS.

WITH THE HIGHER WATER LEVELS...MINOR BEACH EROSION LIKELY WITH 2 DAY
DURATION OF ROUGH SURF SWEEPING DOWNSHORE FROM E TO W.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LN/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...LN/NV
HYDROLOGY...LN/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 231104
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
704 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THEN EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL DRIFT UP
TOWARDS THE REGION FOR THE MID WEEK AND THEN OUT TO SEA FOR LATE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH SE
CANADA TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

N/NW FLOW THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LATE DAY
SEABREEZE ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST.

DEEP NW FLOW SHOULD LIMIT CLOUD COVER TO JUST FEW-SCT INSTABILITY CU
ACROSS INTERIOR.

TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE WITH MIXING LIMITED
UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND RECENT SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR. TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES THIS
MORNING DUE TO RESIDUAL SE SWELLS. THE THREAT LIKELY TRANSITIONS
TO LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SWELLS SUBSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A CUTOFF SOUTHERN UPPER LOW SHEARING NE AROUND
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING ON WED.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE NE TONIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS FOR FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS...AND
LOWER TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. IF NE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK...A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR/PINE
BARRENS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE JUST EAST OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON WED...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHERN
COASTAL TROUGH/WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP THE COAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE REGION UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
ON WED...BUT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT LIGHT
RAIN COULD WORK INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE BY LATE DAY
WED. A STRENGTHENING NE GRADIENT IS LIKELY BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE FLOW...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST.

TEMP GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...WITH
TEMPS POTENTIALLY RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE WITH ONSHORE
FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET BLEND
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE CENTER SHIFTING JUST OFF THE
MAINE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE SOUTH
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTH.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AROUND THIS LOW IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND
INTENSITY...AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. LATEST GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE
WETTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS LOW. GFS/CMC ARE
FASTEST/WETTEST WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
ECMWF/NAM KEEP THE LOW SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH WITH RAIN NOT
BEGINNING TILL LATE THURSDAY. THE REAL QUESTION WILL BE IF THE
HIGH PRESSURE CAN HOLD OFF THE RAIN AND UNTIL WHEN. FOR NOW...DID
PUT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING WHICH
IS A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO
ANY HIGHER THAN THAT AT THIS TIME.

AS THE LOW APPROACHES...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND NE WINDS INCREASE
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE ON LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT.

LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMP GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AS WELL DEPENDING ON
HOW THE LOW PRESSURE PLAYS OUT. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE RANGE OF VALUES
FOR THURS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...COOLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...A GENERAL
GMOS/WPC BLEND WAS USED WITH TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THEN TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILDS OVER THE AREA THRU TNGT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NW FLOW BECOMES VRB BY 16-18Z...WITH A CHC OF SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE.
.WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE. E-SE FLOW
THURSDAY...TURNING TO THE NE FRIDAY.
.SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SE SWELLS AND NW WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING WITH SUB
SCA CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE
WATERS.

MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK FARTHER
NORTHWARD FOR THE THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING E/NE GRADIENT ON WED WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDS
BY LATE IN THE DAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SCA OCEAN SEAS LIKELY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTH. GUSTS ABOVE 25KT WILL ALSO
LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL THE GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTS OF
30-34KT AS WELL WED-THU BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FT WED NIGHT/THU IF
STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZE.

SUB SCA WINDS AND SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND POSSIBLY IMPACT THE AREA WED
NIGHT-FRI. A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
AND QUICKLY THE PRECIP SHIELD GETS. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WED NIGHT/THU...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND NEW MOON WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH THU MORN/AFT HIGH TIDE CYCLE...MAINLY ALONG
VULNERABLE NY HARBOR...NYC/WESTERN LI BACK BAY AND WESTERN SOUND
LOCATIONS.

WITH THE HIGHER WATER LEVELS...MINOR BEACH EROSION LIKELY WITH 2 DAY
DURATION OF ROUGH SURF SWEEPING DOWNSHORE FROM E TO W.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LN/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...LN/NV
HYDROLOGY...LN/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 231104
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
704 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THEN EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL DRIFT UP
TOWARDS THE REGION FOR THE MID WEEK AND THEN OUT TO SEA FOR LATE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH SE
CANADA TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

N/NW FLOW THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LATE DAY
SEABREEZE ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST.

DEEP NW FLOW SHOULD LIMIT CLOUD COVER TO JUST FEW-SCT INSTABILITY CU
ACROSS INTERIOR.

TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE WITH MIXING LIMITED
UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND RECENT SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR. TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES THIS
MORNING DUE TO RESIDUAL SE SWELLS. THE THREAT LIKELY TRANSITIONS
TO LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SWELLS SUBSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A CUTOFF SOUTHERN UPPER LOW SHEARING NE AROUND
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING ON WED.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE NE TONIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS FOR FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS...AND
LOWER TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. IF NE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK...A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR/PINE
BARRENS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE JUST EAST OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON WED...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHERN
COASTAL TROUGH/WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP THE COAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE REGION UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
ON WED...BUT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT LIGHT
RAIN COULD WORK INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE BY LATE DAY
WED. A STRENGTHENING NE GRADIENT IS LIKELY BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE FLOW...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST.

TEMP GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...WITH
TEMPS POTENTIALLY RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE WITH ONSHORE
FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET BLEND
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE CENTER SHIFTING JUST OFF THE
MAINE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE SOUTH
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTH.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AROUND THIS LOW IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND
INTENSITY...AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. LATEST GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE
WETTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS LOW. GFS/CMC ARE
FASTEST/WETTEST WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
ECMWF/NAM KEEP THE LOW SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH WITH RAIN NOT
BEGINNING TILL LATE THURSDAY. THE REAL QUESTION WILL BE IF THE
HIGH PRESSURE CAN HOLD OFF THE RAIN AND UNTIL WHEN. FOR NOW...DID
PUT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING WHICH
IS A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO
ANY HIGHER THAN THAT AT THIS TIME.

AS THE LOW APPROACHES...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND NE WINDS INCREASE
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE ON LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT.

LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMP GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AS WELL DEPENDING ON
HOW THE LOW PRESSURE PLAYS OUT. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE RANGE OF VALUES
FOR THURS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...COOLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...A GENERAL
GMOS/WPC BLEND WAS USED WITH TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THEN TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILDS OVER THE AREA THRU TNGT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NW FLOW BECOMES VRB BY 16-18Z...WITH A CHC OF SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE.
.WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE. E-SE FLOW
THURSDAY...TURNING TO THE NE FRIDAY.
.SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SE SWELLS AND NW WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING WITH SUB
SCA CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE
WATERS.

MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK FARTHER
NORTHWARD FOR THE THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING E/NE GRADIENT ON WED WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDS
BY LATE IN THE DAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SCA OCEAN SEAS LIKELY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTH. GUSTS ABOVE 25KT WILL ALSO
LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL THE GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTS OF
30-34KT AS WELL WED-THU BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FT WED NIGHT/THU IF
STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZE.

SUB SCA WINDS AND SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND POSSIBLY IMPACT THE AREA WED
NIGHT-FRI. A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
AND QUICKLY THE PRECIP SHIELD GETS. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WED NIGHT/THU...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND NEW MOON WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH THU MORN/AFT HIGH TIDE CYCLE...MAINLY ALONG
VULNERABLE NY HARBOR...NYC/WESTERN LI BACK BAY AND WESTERN SOUND
LOCATIONS.

WITH THE HIGHER WATER LEVELS...MINOR BEACH EROSION LIKELY WITH 2 DAY
DURATION OF ROUGH SURF SWEEPING DOWNSHORE FROM E TO W.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LN/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...LN/NV
HYDROLOGY...LN/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV









000
FXUS61 KOKX 230835
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
435 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND THEN EAST
ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL DRIFT UP TOWARDS THE
REGION FOR THE MID WEEK AND THEN OUT TO SEA FOR LATE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH SE
CANADA TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

GUSTY N/NW FLOW THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LATE
DAY SEABREEZE ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST.

DEEP NW FLOW SHOULD LIMIT CLOUD COVER TO JUST FEW-SCT INSTABILITY CU
ACROSS INTERIOR.

TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE WITH MIXING LIMITED
UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND RECENT SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR. TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES THIS
MORNING DUE TO RESIDUAL SE SWELLS. THE THREAT LIKELY TRANSITIONS
TO LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SWELLS SUBSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A CUTOFF SOUTHERN UPPER LOW SHEARING NE AROUND
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING ON WED.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE NE TONIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS FOR FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS...AND
LOWER TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. IF NE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK...A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR/PINE
BARRENS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE JUST EAST OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON WED...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHERN
COASTAL TROUGH/WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP THE COAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE REGION UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
ON WED...BUT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT LIGHT
RAIN COULD WORK INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE BY LATE DAY
WED. A STRENGTHENING NE GRADIENT IS LIKELY BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE FLOW...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST.

TEMP GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...WITH
TEMPS POTENTIALLY RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE WITH ONSHORE
FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET BLEND
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE CENTER SHIFTING JUST OFF THE
MAINE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE SOUTH
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTH.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AROUND THIS LOW IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND
INTENSITY...AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. LATEST GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE
WETTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS LOW. GFS/CMC ARE
FASTEST/WETTEST WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
ECMWF/NAM KEEP THE LOW SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH WITH RAIN NOT
BEGINNING TILL LATE THURSDAY. THE REAL QUESTION WILL BE IF THE
HIGH PRESSURE CAN HOLD OFF THE RAIN AND UNTIL WHEN. FOR NOW...DID
PUT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING WHICH
IS A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO
ANY HIGHER THAN THAT AT THIS TIME.

AS THE LOW APPROACHES...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND NE WINDS INCREASE
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE ON LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT.

LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMP GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AS WELL DEPENDING ON
HOW THE LOW PRESSURE PLAYS OUT. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE RANGE OF VALUES
FOR THURS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...COOLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...A GENERAL
GMOS/WPC BLEND WAS USED WITH TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THEN TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILDS OVER THE AREA THRU TNGT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NW FLOW BECOMES VRB BY 16-18Z...WITH A CHC OF SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN.


...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE.
.WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE. E-SE FLOW
THURSDAY...TURNING TO THE NE FRIDAY.
.SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING AS SE SWELLS AND NW WINDS SUBSIDE.

SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WATERS.

MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK FARTHER
NORTHWARD FOR THE THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING E/NE GRADIENT ON WED WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDS
BY LATE IN THE DAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SCA OCEAN SEAS LIKELY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTH. GUSTS ABOVE 25KT WILL ALSO
LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL THE GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTS OF
30-34KT AS WELL WED-THU BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FT WED NIGHT/THU IF
STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZE.

SUB SCA WINDS AND SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND POSSIBLY IMPACT THE AREA WED
NIGHT-FRI. A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
AND QUICKLY THE PRECIP SHIELD GETS. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WED NIGHT/THU...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND NEW MOON WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH THU MORN/AFT HIGH TIDE CYCLE...MAINLY ALONG
VULNERABLE NY HARBOR...NYC/WESTERN LI BACK BAY AND WESTERN SOUND
LOCATIONS.

WITH THE HIGHER WATER LEVELS...MINOR BEACH EROSION LIKELY WITH 2 DAY
DURATION OF ROUGH SURF SWEEPING DOWNSHORE FROM E TO W.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LN/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...LN/NV
HYDROLOGY...LN/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 230835
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
435 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND THEN EAST
ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL DRIFT UP TOWARDS THE
REGION FOR THE MID WEEK AND THEN OUT TO SEA FOR LATE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH SE
CANADA TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

GUSTY N/NW FLOW THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LATE
DAY SEABREEZE ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST.

DEEP NW FLOW SHOULD LIMIT CLOUD COVER TO JUST FEW-SCT INSTABILITY CU
ACROSS INTERIOR.

TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE WITH MIXING LIMITED
UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND RECENT SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR. TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES THIS
MORNING DUE TO RESIDUAL SE SWELLS. THE THREAT LIKELY TRANSITIONS
TO LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SWELLS SUBSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A CUTOFF SOUTHERN UPPER LOW SHEARING NE AROUND
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING ON WED.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE NE TONIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS FOR FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS...AND
LOWER TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. IF NE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK...A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR/PINE
BARRENS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE JUST EAST OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON WED...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHERN
COASTAL TROUGH/WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP THE COAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE REGION UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
ON WED...BUT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT LIGHT
RAIN COULD WORK INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE BY LATE DAY
WED. A STRENGTHENING NE GRADIENT IS LIKELY BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE FLOW...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST.

TEMP GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...WITH
TEMPS POTENTIALLY RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE WITH ONSHORE
FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET BLEND
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE CENTER SHIFTING JUST OFF THE
MAINE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE SOUTH
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTH.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AROUND THIS LOW IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND
INTENSITY...AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. LATEST GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE
WETTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS LOW. GFS/CMC ARE
FASTEST/WETTEST WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
ECMWF/NAM KEEP THE LOW SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH WITH RAIN NOT
BEGINNING TILL LATE THURSDAY. THE REAL QUESTION WILL BE IF THE
HIGH PRESSURE CAN HOLD OFF THE RAIN AND UNTIL WHEN. FOR NOW...DID
PUT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING WHICH
IS A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO
ANY HIGHER THAN THAT AT THIS TIME.

AS THE LOW APPROACHES...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND NE WINDS INCREASE
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE ON LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT.

LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMP GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AS WELL DEPENDING ON
HOW THE LOW PRESSURE PLAYS OUT. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE RANGE OF VALUES
FOR THURS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...COOLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...A GENERAL
GMOS/WPC BLEND WAS USED WITH TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THEN TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILDS OVER THE AREA THRU TNGT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NW FLOW BECOMES VRB BY 16-18Z...WITH A CHC OF SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN.


...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE.
.WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE. E-SE FLOW
THURSDAY...TURNING TO THE NE FRIDAY.
.SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING AS SE SWELLS AND NW WINDS SUBSIDE.

SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WATERS.

MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK FARTHER
NORTHWARD FOR THE THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING E/NE GRADIENT ON WED WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDS
BY LATE IN THE DAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SCA OCEAN SEAS LIKELY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTH. GUSTS ABOVE 25KT WILL ALSO
LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL THE GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTS OF
30-34KT AS WELL WED-THU BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FT WED NIGHT/THU IF
STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZE.

SUB SCA WINDS AND SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND POSSIBLY IMPACT THE AREA WED
NIGHT-FRI. A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
AND QUICKLY THE PRECIP SHIELD GETS. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WED NIGHT/THU...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND NEW MOON WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH THU MORN/AFT HIGH TIDE CYCLE...MAINLY ALONG
VULNERABLE NY HARBOR...NYC/WESTERN LI BACK BAY AND WESTERN SOUND
LOCATIONS.

WITH THE HIGHER WATER LEVELS...MINOR BEACH EROSION LIKELY WITH 2 DAY
DURATION OF ROUGH SURF SWEEPING DOWNSHORE FROM E TO W.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LN/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...LN/NV
HYDROLOGY...LN/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 230736
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
336 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND THEN EAST
ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL DRIFT UP TOWARDS THE
REGION FOR THE MID WEEK AND THEN OUT TO SEA FOR LATE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH SE
CANADA TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

GUSTY N/NW FLOW THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LATE
DAY SEABREEZE ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST.

DEEP NW FLOW SHOULD LIMIT CLOUD COVER TO JUST FEW-SCT INSTABILITY CU
ACROSS INTERIOR.

TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE WITH MIXING LIMITED
UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND RECENT SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR. TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES THIS
MORNING DUE TO RESIDUAL SE SWELLS. THE THREAT LIKELY TRANSITIONS
TO LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SWELLS SUBSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A CUTOFF SOUTHERN UPPER LOW SHEARING NE AROUND
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING ON WED.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE NE TONIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS FOR FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS...AND
LOWER TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. IF NE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK...A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR/PINE
BARRENS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE JUST EAST OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON WED...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHERN
COASTAL TROUGH/WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP THE COAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE REGION UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
ON WED...BUT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT LIGHT
RAIN COULD WORK INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE BY LATE DAY
WED. A STRENGTHENING NE GRADIENT IS LIKELY BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE FLOW...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST.

TEMP GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...WITH
TEMPS POTENTIALLY RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE WITH ONSHORE
FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET BLEND
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE CENTER SHIFTING JUST OFF THE
MAINE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE SOUTH
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTH.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AROUND THIS LOW IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND
INTENSITY...AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. LATEST GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE
WETTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS LOW. GFS/CMC ARE
FASTEST/WETTEST WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
ECMWF/NAM KEEP THE LOW SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH WITH RAIN NOT
BEGINNING TILL LATE THURSDAY. THE REAL QUESTION WILL BE IF THE
HIGH PRESSURE CAN HOLD OFF THE RAIN AND UNTIL WHEN. FOR NOW...DID
PUT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING WHICH
IS A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO
ANY HIGHER THAN THAT AT THIS TIME.

AS THE LOW APPROACHES...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND NE WINDS INCREASE
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE ON LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT.

LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMP GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AS WELL DEPENDING ON
HOW THE LOW PRESSURE PLAYS OUT. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE RANGE OF VALUES
FOR THURS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...COOLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...A GENERAL
GMOS/WPC BLEND WAS USED WITH TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THEN TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILDS OVER THE AREA THRU TNGT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NW FLOW LIGHTENS THRU 12Z...THE FLOW BECOMES VRB BY 16-18Z...WITH
A CHC OF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN. SEA BREEZE TIMING
THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE OFF 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE.
.WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE. E-SE FLOW
THURSDAY...TURNING TO THE NE FRIDAY.
.SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING AS SE SWELLS AND NW WINDS SUBSIDE.

SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WATERS.

MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK FARTHER
NORTHWARD FOR THE THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING E/NE GRADIENT ON WED WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDS
BY LATE IN THE DAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SCA OCEAN SEAS LIKELY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTH. GUSTS ABOVE 25KT WILL ALSO
LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL THE GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTS OF
30-34KT AS WELL WED-THU BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FT WED NIGHT/THU IF
STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZE.

SUB SCA WINDS AND SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND POSSIBLY IMPACT THE AREA WED
NIGHT-FRI. A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
AND QUICKLY THE PRECIP SHIELD GETS. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WED NIGHT/THU...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND NEW MOON WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH THU MORN/AFT HIGH TIDE CYCLE...MAINLY ALONG
VULNERABLE NY HARBOR...NYC/WESTERN LI BACK BAY AND WESTERN SOUND
LOCATIONS.

WITH THE HIGHER WATER LEVELS...MINOR BEACH EROSION LIKELY WITH 2 DAY
DURATION OF ROUGH SURF SWEEPING DOWNSHORE FROM E TO W.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LN/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...LN/NV
HYDROLOGY...LN/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 230736
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
336 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND THEN EAST
ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL DRIFT UP TOWARDS THE
REGION FOR THE MID WEEK AND THEN OUT TO SEA FOR LATE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH SE
CANADA TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

GUSTY N/NW FLOW THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LATE
DAY SEABREEZE ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST.

DEEP NW FLOW SHOULD LIMIT CLOUD COVER TO JUST FEW-SCT INSTABILITY CU
ACROSS INTERIOR.

TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE WITH MIXING LIMITED
UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND RECENT SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR. TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES THIS
MORNING DUE TO RESIDUAL SE SWELLS. THE THREAT LIKELY TRANSITIONS
TO LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SWELLS SUBSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A CUTOFF SOUTHERN UPPER LOW SHEARING NE AROUND
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING ON WED.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE NE TONIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS FOR FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS...AND
LOWER TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. IF NE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK...A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR/PINE
BARRENS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE JUST EAST OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON WED...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHERN
COASTAL TROUGH/WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP THE COAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE REGION UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
ON WED...BUT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT LIGHT
RAIN COULD WORK INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE BY LATE DAY
WED. A STRENGTHENING NE GRADIENT IS LIKELY BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE FLOW...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST.

TEMP GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...WITH
TEMPS POTENTIALLY RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE WITH ONSHORE
FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET BLEND
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE CENTER SHIFTING JUST OFF THE
MAINE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE SOUTH
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTH.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AROUND THIS LOW IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND
INTENSITY...AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. LATEST GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE
WETTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS LOW. GFS/CMC ARE
FASTEST/WETTEST WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
ECMWF/NAM KEEP THE LOW SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH WITH RAIN NOT
BEGINNING TILL LATE THURSDAY. THE REAL QUESTION WILL BE IF THE
HIGH PRESSURE CAN HOLD OFF THE RAIN AND UNTIL WHEN. FOR NOW...DID
PUT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING WHICH
IS A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO
ANY HIGHER THAN THAT AT THIS TIME.

AS THE LOW APPROACHES...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND NE WINDS INCREASE
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE ON LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT.

LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMP GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AS WELL DEPENDING ON
HOW THE LOW PRESSURE PLAYS OUT. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE RANGE OF VALUES
FOR THURS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...COOLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...A GENERAL
GMOS/WPC BLEND WAS USED WITH TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THEN TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILDS OVER THE AREA THRU TNGT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NW FLOW LIGHTENS THRU 12Z...THE FLOW BECOMES VRB BY 16-18Z...WITH
A CHC OF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN. SEA BREEZE TIMING
THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE OFF 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE.
.WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE. E-SE FLOW
THURSDAY...TURNING TO THE NE FRIDAY.
.SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING AS SE SWELLS AND NW WINDS SUBSIDE.

SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WATERS.

MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK FARTHER
NORTHWARD FOR THE THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING E/NE GRADIENT ON WED WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDS
BY LATE IN THE DAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SCA OCEAN SEAS LIKELY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTH. GUSTS ABOVE 25KT WILL ALSO
LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL THE GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTS OF
30-34KT AS WELL WED-THU BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FT WED NIGHT/THU IF
STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZE.

SUB SCA WINDS AND SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND POSSIBLY IMPACT THE AREA WED
NIGHT-FRI. A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
AND QUICKLY THE PRECIP SHIELD GETS. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WED NIGHT/THU...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND NEW MOON WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH THU MORN/AFT HIGH TIDE CYCLE...MAINLY ALONG
VULNERABLE NY HARBOR...NYC/WESTERN LI BACK BAY AND WESTERN SOUND
LOCATIONS.

WITH THE HIGHER WATER LEVELS...MINOR BEACH EROSION LIKELY WITH 2 DAY
DURATION OF ROUGH SURF SWEEPING DOWNSHORE FROM E TO W.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LN/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...LN/NV
HYDROLOGY...LN/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 230540
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
140 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND THEN EAST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL DRIFT UP INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE MID WEEK AND THEN OUT TO SEA FOR LATE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS BELOW AVG. A FEW
SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST ZONES COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT CYCLONIC...IT APPEARS
THAT LOWER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING FOR ANY DIURNAL
CU BUILDUP. IF ANYTHING...SOME CIRRUS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTH. IN ANY CASE...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.

FOR HIGHS TUE AFTERNOON...SUBSIDENCE WILL PROBABLY LIMIT MIXING
TO AROUND 925 MB...WHERE MODELS FORECAST THE TEMP TO BE ABOUT 11C.
CONSIDERING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BUT MINIMAL HELP FROM
DOWNSLOPING...WENT WITH GFS MOS FOR MOST AREAS...WHICH WAS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NAM MOS...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVG. LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW AVG TOO MAINLY AWAY
FROM NYC.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
INTERACTIONS OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES...ONE
MOVING INTO THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST TREND HAS
BEEN FOR THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL STILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE LAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
OCEAN FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY. IF TRENDS CONTINUE POSSIBLE THAT
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC METRO AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVES PASS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN AND DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WARMING TREND
BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE INITIALLY COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE BEGINS TO
MODIFY. BY THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILDS OVER THE AREA THRU TNGT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NW FLOW LIGHTENS THRU 12Z...THE FLOW BECOMES VRB BY 16-18Z...WITH
A CHC OF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN. SEA BREEZE TIMING
THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE OFF 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE.
.WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE. E-SE FLOW
THURSDAY...TURNING TO THE NE FRIDAY.
.SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE GENERALLY BELOW SCA LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING. SCA SEAS
ACROSS EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING AS
OCEAN SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM W TO E AS SE SWELLS AND NW
WINDS SUBSIDE. QUIET CONDS SHOULD RETURN AS WINDS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE AND LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP WIND
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO BRING A DEEPER TROUGH FARTHER TO
THE NORTH. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW TO THE SOUTH. AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY. SOME GUSTS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND PECONIC BAY MAY REACH SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS AS WELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AND WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/JM
MARINE...JC/GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET









000
FXUS61 KOKX 230540
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
140 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND THEN EAST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL DRIFT UP INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE MID WEEK AND THEN OUT TO SEA FOR LATE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS BELOW AVG. A FEW
SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST ZONES COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT CYCLONIC...IT APPEARS
THAT LOWER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING FOR ANY DIURNAL
CU BUILDUP. IF ANYTHING...SOME CIRRUS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTH. IN ANY CASE...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.

FOR HIGHS TUE AFTERNOON...SUBSIDENCE WILL PROBABLY LIMIT MIXING
TO AROUND 925 MB...WHERE MODELS FORECAST THE TEMP TO BE ABOUT 11C.
CONSIDERING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BUT MINIMAL HELP FROM
DOWNSLOPING...WENT WITH GFS MOS FOR MOST AREAS...WHICH WAS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NAM MOS...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVG. LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW AVG TOO MAINLY AWAY
FROM NYC.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
INTERACTIONS OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES...ONE
MOVING INTO THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST TREND HAS
BEEN FOR THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL STILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE LAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
OCEAN FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY. IF TRENDS CONTINUE POSSIBLE THAT
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC METRO AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVES PASS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN AND DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WARMING TREND
BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE INITIALLY COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE BEGINS TO
MODIFY. BY THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILDS OVER THE AREA THRU TNGT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NW FLOW LIGHTENS THRU 12Z...THE FLOW BECOMES VRB BY 16-18Z...WITH
A CHC OF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN. SEA BREEZE TIMING
THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE OFF 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE.
.WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE. E-SE FLOW
THURSDAY...TURNING TO THE NE FRIDAY.
.SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE GENERALLY BELOW SCA LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING. SCA SEAS
ACROSS EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING AS
OCEAN SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM W TO E AS SE SWELLS AND NW
WINDS SUBSIDE. QUIET CONDS SHOULD RETURN AS WINDS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE AND LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP WIND
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO BRING A DEEPER TROUGH FARTHER TO
THE NORTH. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW TO THE SOUTH. AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY. SOME GUSTS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND PECONIC BAY MAY REACH SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS AS WELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AND WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/JM
MARINE...JC/GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET










000
FXUS61 KOKX 230309
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1109 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS BELOW AVG. A FEW
SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST ZONES COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT CYCLONIC...IT APPEARS
THAT LOWER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING FOR ANY DIURNAL
CU BUILDUP. IF ANYTHING...SOME CIRRUS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTH. IN ANY CASE...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.

FOR HIGHS TUE AFTERNOON...SUBSIDENCE WILL PROBABLY LIMIT MIXING
TO AROUND 925 MB...WHERE MODELS FORECAST THE TEMP TO BE ABOUT 11C.
CONSIDERING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BUT MINIMAL HELP FROM
DOWNSLOPING...WENT WITH GFS MOS FOR MOST AREAS...WHICH WAS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NAM MOS...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVG. LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW AVG TOO MAINLY AWAY
FROM NYC.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
INTERACTIONS OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES...ONE
MOVING INTO THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST TREND HAS
BEEN FOR THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL STILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE LAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
OCEAN FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY. IF TRENDS CONTINUE POSSIBLE THAT
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC METRO AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVES PASS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN AND DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WARMING TREND
BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE INITIALLY COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE BEGINS TO
MODIFY. BY THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW FLOW 10-15 KT GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
FOR SOME COASTAL TERMINALS WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY FOR KJFK AND KLGA COULD LAST 1-2 HOURS
LATER THAN FORECAST TONIGHT. THE LIGHTER NW FLOW OVERNIGHT
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH SEA BREEZES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF WIND GUSTS AND SEA BREEZE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTION FORECAST LOWERS IN CONFIDENCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SEA BREEZE TIMING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
COULD BE OFF 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE.
.WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE. E-SE FLOW
THURSDAY...TURNING TO THE NE FRIDAY.
.SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
DROPPED SCA ON THE EASTERN SOUND AS WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO
DIMINISH...BUT SCA CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN WHERE WINDS ARE GUSTING
TO 25 KT AND SEAS ARE STILL 5-6 FT AT THE OUTER BUOYS. SCA CONDS
THERE SHOULD LAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING...THEN QUIET CONDS SHOULD
RETURN AS WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AND LONG PERIOD
OCEAN SWELLS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP WIND
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO BRING A DEEPER TROUGH FARTHER TO
THE NORTH. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW TO THE SOUTH. AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY. SOME GUSTS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND PECONIC BAY MAY REACH SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS AS WELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AND WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KOKX 230309
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1109 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS BELOW AVG. A FEW
SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST ZONES COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT CYCLONIC...IT APPEARS
THAT LOWER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING FOR ANY DIURNAL
CU BUILDUP. IF ANYTHING...SOME CIRRUS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTH. IN ANY CASE...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.

FOR HIGHS TUE AFTERNOON...SUBSIDENCE WILL PROBABLY LIMIT MIXING
TO AROUND 925 MB...WHERE MODELS FORECAST THE TEMP TO BE ABOUT 11C.
CONSIDERING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BUT MINIMAL HELP FROM
DOWNSLOPING...WENT WITH GFS MOS FOR MOST AREAS...WHICH WAS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NAM MOS...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVG. LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW AVG TOO MAINLY AWAY
FROM NYC.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
INTERACTIONS OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES...ONE
MOVING INTO THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST TREND HAS
BEEN FOR THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL STILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE LAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
OCEAN FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY. IF TRENDS CONTINUE POSSIBLE THAT
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC METRO AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVES PASS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN AND DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WARMING TREND
BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE INITIALLY COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE BEGINS TO
MODIFY. BY THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW FLOW 10-15 KT GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
FOR SOME COASTAL TERMINALS WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY FOR KJFK AND KLGA COULD LAST 1-2 HOURS
LATER THAN FORECAST TONIGHT. THE LIGHTER NW FLOW OVERNIGHT
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH SEA BREEZES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF WIND GUSTS AND SEA BREEZE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTION FORECAST LOWERS IN CONFIDENCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SEA BREEZE TIMING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
COULD BE OFF 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE.
.WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE. E-SE FLOW
THURSDAY...TURNING TO THE NE FRIDAY.
.SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
DROPPED SCA ON THE EASTERN SOUND AS WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO
DIMINISH...BUT SCA CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN WHERE WINDS ARE GUSTING
TO 25 KT AND SEAS ARE STILL 5-6 FT AT THE OUTER BUOYS. SCA CONDS
THERE SHOULD LAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING...THEN QUIET CONDS SHOULD
RETURN AS WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AND LONG PERIOD
OCEAN SWELLS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP WIND
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO BRING A DEEPER TROUGH FARTHER TO
THE NORTH. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW TO THE SOUTH. AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY. SOME GUSTS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND PECONIC BAY MAY REACH SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS AS WELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AND WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KOKX 230003
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
803 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS BELOW AVG. A FEW
SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST ZONES COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT CYCLONIC...IT APPEARS
THAT LOWER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING FOR ANY DIURNAL
CU BUILDUP. IF ANYTHING...SOME CIRRUS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTH. IN ANY CASE...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.

FOR HIGHS TUE AFTERNOON...SUBSIDENCE WILL PROBABLY LIMIT MIXING
TO AROUND 925 MB...WHERE MODELS FORECAST THE TEMP TO BE ABOUT 11C.
CONSIDERING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BUT MINIMAL HELP FROM
DOWNSLOPING...WENT WITH GFS MOS FOR MOST AREAS...WHICH WAS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NAM MOS...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVG. LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW AVG TOO MAINLY AWAY
FROM NYC.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
INTERACTIONS OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES...ONE
MOVING INTO THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST TREND HAS
BEEN FOR THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL STILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE LAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
OCEAN FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY. IF TRENDS CONTINUE POSSIBLE THAT
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC METRO AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVES PASS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN AND DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WARMING TREND
BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE INITIALLY COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE BEGINS TO
MODIFY. BY THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW FLOW 10-15 KT GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF WIND GUSTS AND SEA BREEZE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD LAST 1-2 HOURS LATER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVENING. SEA BREEZE TIMING TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD LAST 1-2 HOURS LATER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVENING. SEA BREEZE TIMING TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD LAST 1-2 HOURS LATER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVENING. SEA BREEZE TIMING TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE
OFF +/- 1 HOUR FROM FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUST END TIME COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF FROM
FORECAST THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUST END TIME COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF FROM
FORECAST THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD LAST 1-2 HOURS LATER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVENING. SEA BREEZE TIMING TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE
OFF +/- 1 HOUR FROM FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE.
.WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE. E-SE FLOW
THURSDAY...TURNING TO THE NE FRIDAY.
.SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE ONE LAST SURGE OF WIND THIS EVENING WILL MAINTAIN SCA
CONDS ON ALL OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT...AND ALSO ON ERN LONG ISLAND
SOUND. WITH OCEAN SEAS RUNNING UP TO 1 FT HIGHER THAN 18Z
WAVEWATCH...EXTENDED SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUE. SUB-ADVY CONDS EXPECTED LATER TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT AS WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AND LONG PERIOD OCEAN
SWELLS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP WIND
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO BRING A DEEPER TROUGH FARTHER TO
THE NORTH. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW TO THE SOUTH. AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY. SOME GUSTS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND PECONIC BAY MAY REACH SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS AS WELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AND WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JC/GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET








000
FXUS61 KOKX 222052
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
452 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...REMAINING
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...BUT AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER HERE WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE. CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW-NORMAL LOWS. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST ZONES COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS EVENING AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT CYCLONIC...IT APPEARS THAT
LOWER-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING FOR ANY DIURNAL CU BUILDUP.
IF ANYTHING...SOME CIRRUS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. IN ANY
CASE...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.

FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SUBSIDENCE WILL PROBABLY LIMIT MIXING
TO AROUND 925 MB...WHERE MODELS FORECAST THE TEMP TO BE ABOUT 11C.
CONSIDERING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BUT MINIMAL HELP FROM
DOWNSLOPING...WENT WITH MAV MOS FOR MOST AREAS...WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NAM MOS. HIGHS AVERAGING AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TOO...BUT MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
CITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
INTERACTIONS OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES...ONE
MOVING INTO THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST TREND HAS
BEEN FOR THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL STILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE LAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
OCEAN FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY. IF TRENDS CONTINUE POSSIBLE THAT
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC METRO AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVES PASS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN AND DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WARMING TREND
BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE INITIALLY COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE BEGINS TO
MODIFY. BY THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS VEER TO MORE OF A NW FLOW BY 00Z. GUSTS DIMINISH
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10-15 KT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AROUND 5-8 KT...BACKING TO THE W TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FEW-SCT CU AT 3500-4500 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN SKIES
CLEAR OUT THEREAFTER.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS JUST TO THE LEFT
OF 310 MAG...VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY 00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS JUST OVER 310
MAG...VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY 00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS JUST OVER 310
MAG...VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE.
.WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE. E-SE FLOW
THURSDAY...TURNING TO THE NE FRIDAY.
.SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT...HOWEVER GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SEAS HERE WILL ALSO REMAIN
UP TO 5 FT OR HIGHER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO WILL LEAVE SCA UP
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR THESE ZONES.

FOR THE OCEAN WATERS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...THERE COULD BE A
FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT AFTER THE CURRENT SCA EXPIRES AT 00Z. THERE COULD
ALSO BE SOME AREAS IN THIS ZONE WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 5 FT. THINKING
IS THAT THESE POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEF ENOUGH AND
ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT EXTEND THE SCA FURTHER IN TIME.

FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS....OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN IT LOOKS AS IF A SCA WOULD
NOT BE WARRANTED IN THIS CASE.

FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE...AND LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.
THEREFORE EXPECTING SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP WIND
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO BRING A DEEPER TROUGH FARTHER TO
THE NORTH. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW TO THE SOUTH. AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY. SOME GUSTS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND PECONIC BAY MAY REACH SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS AS WELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AND WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JM/MPS
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET







000
FXUS61 KOKX 222052
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
452 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...REMAINING
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...BUT AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER HERE WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE. CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW-NORMAL LOWS. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST ZONES COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS EVENING AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT CYCLONIC...IT APPEARS THAT
LOWER-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING FOR ANY DIURNAL CU BUILDUP.
IF ANYTHING...SOME CIRRUS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. IN ANY
CASE...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.

FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SUBSIDENCE WILL PROBABLY LIMIT MIXING
TO AROUND 925 MB...WHERE MODELS FORECAST THE TEMP TO BE ABOUT 11C.
CONSIDERING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BUT MINIMAL HELP FROM
DOWNSLOPING...WENT WITH MAV MOS FOR MOST AREAS...WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NAM MOS. HIGHS AVERAGING AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TOO...BUT MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
CITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
INTERACTIONS OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES...ONE
MOVING INTO THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST TREND HAS
BEEN FOR THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL STILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE LAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
OCEAN FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY. IF TRENDS CONTINUE POSSIBLE THAT
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC METRO AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVES PASS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN AND DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WARMING TREND
BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE INITIALLY COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE BEGINS TO
MODIFY. BY THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS VEER TO MORE OF A NW FLOW BY 00Z. GUSTS DIMINISH
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10-15 KT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AROUND 5-8 KT...BACKING TO THE W TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FEW-SCT CU AT 3500-4500 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN SKIES
CLEAR OUT THEREAFTER.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS JUST TO THE LEFT
OF 310 MAG...VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY 00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS JUST OVER 310
MAG...VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY 00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS JUST OVER 310
MAG...VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE.
.WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE. E-SE FLOW
THURSDAY...TURNING TO THE NE FRIDAY.
.SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT...HOWEVER GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SEAS HERE WILL ALSO REMAIN
UP TO 5 FT OR HIGHER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO WILL LEAVE SCA UP
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR THESE ZONES.

FOR THE OCEAN WATERS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...THERE COULD BE A
FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT AFTER THE CURRENT SCA EXPIRES AT 00Z. THERE COULD
ALSO BE SOME AREAS IN THIS ZONE WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 5 FT. THINKING
IS THAT THESE POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEF ENOUGH AND
ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT EXTEND THE SCA FURTHER IN TIME.

FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS....OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN IT LOOKS AS IF A SCA WOULD
NOT BE WARRANTED IN THIS CASE.

FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE...AND LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.
THEREFORE EXPECTING SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP WIND
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO BRING A DEEPER TROUGH FARTHER TO
THE NORTH. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW TO THE SOUTH. AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY. SOME GUSTS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND PECONIC BAY MAY REACH SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS AS WELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AND WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JM/MPS
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET








000
FXUS61 KOKX 221953
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
353 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...REMAINING
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...BUT AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER HERE WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE. CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW-NORMAL LOWS. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST ZONES COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS EVENING AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT CYCLONIC...IT APPEARS THAT
LOWER-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING FOR ANY DIURNAL CU BUILDUP.
IF ANYTHING...SOME CIRRUS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. IN ANY
CASE...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.

FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SUBSIDENCE WILL PROBABLY LIMIT MIXING
TO AROUND 925 MB...WHERE MODELS FORECAST THE TEMP TO BE ABOUT 11C.
CONSIDERING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BUT MINIMAL HELP FROM
DOWNSLOPING...WENT WITH MAV MOS FOR MOST AREAS...WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NAM MOS. HIGHS AVERAGING AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TOO...BUT MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
CITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
INTERACTIONS OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES...ONE
MOVING INTO THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST TREND HAS
BEEN FOR THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL STILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE LAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
OCEAN FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY. IF TRENDS CONTINUE POSSIBLE THAT
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC METRO AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVES PASS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN AND DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WARMING TREND
BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE INITIALLY COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE BEGINS TO
MODIFY. BY THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS VEER TO MORE OF A NW FLOW BY 00Z. GUSTS WILL
END...AND SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 KT. WINDS CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE N AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AT 5-7 KT.

SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY SCT-BKN CU AT 3500-4500 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
THEN SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS JUST TO THE LEFT
OF 310 MAG...VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY 00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS JUST OVER 310
MAG...VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY 00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS JUST OVER 310
MAG...VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE.
.WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS AROUND 300 FT POSSIBLE. E WINDS 10-15
KT.
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE. E-SE FLOW
THURSDAY...TURNING TO THE NE FRIDAY.
.SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT...HOWEVER GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SEAS HERE WILL ALSO REMAIN
UP TO 5 FT OR HIGHER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO WILL LEAVE SCA UP
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR THESE ZONES.

FOR THE OCEAN WATERS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...THERE COULD BE A
FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT AFTER THE CURRENT SCA EXPIRES AT 00Z. THERE COULD
ALSO BE SOME AREAS IN THIS ZONE WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 5 FT. THINKING
IS THAT THESE POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEF ENOUGH AND
ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT EXTEND THE SCA FURTHER IN TIME.

FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS....OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN IT LOOKS AS IF A SCA WOULD
NOT BE WARRANTED IN THIS CASE.

FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE...AND LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.
THEREFORE EXPECTING SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP WIND
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO BRING A DEEPER TROUGH FARTHER TO
THE NORTH. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW TO THE SOUTH. AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY. SOME GUSTS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND PECONIC BAY MAY REACH SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS AS WELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AND WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET







000
FXUS61 KOKX 221750
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
150 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...REMAINING
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE...MAINLY WITH CLOUD COVER.
THE CLOUD BUILDUP WE HAVE SEEN IS FROM A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A
TROUGH AXIS/SHORTWAVE ALOFT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
LEFT HIGH TEMP FORECAST UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. HIGHS
AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS VEER TO MORE OF A NW FLOW BY 00Z. GUSTS WILL
END...AND SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 KT. WINDS CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE N AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AT 5-7 KT.

SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY SCT-BKN CU AT 3500-4500 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
THEN SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS JUST TO THE
LEFT OF 310 MAG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING TO THE RIGHT
OF 310 MAG BY 00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS JUST OVER 310
MAG...VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY 00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS JUST OVER 310
MAG...VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FU FROM A BRUSH FIRE NEAR KTEB MAY
OCCASIONALLY BE OBSERVED AT THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE.
.WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS AROUND 300 FT POSSIBLE. E WINDS 10-15
KT.
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE. E-SE FLOW
THURSDAY...TURNING TO THE NE FRIDAY.
.SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TO RUN 6-9 FT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE
OTHER WATERS BUT GUST FREQUENCY AND ITS COVERAGE ARE NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO GO WITH A SCA IN ANY OF THESE OTHER ZONES.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...BC/JC/LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN









000
FXUS61 KOKX 221750
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
150 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...REMAINING
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE...MAINLY WITH CLOUD COVER.
THE CLOUD BUILDUP WE HAVE SEEN IS FROM A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A
TROUGH AXIS/SHORTWAVE ALOFT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
LEFT HIGH TEMP FORECAST UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. HIGHS
AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS VEER TO MORE OF A NW FLOW BY 00Z. GUSTS WILL
END...AND SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 KT. WINDS CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE N AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AT 5-7 KT.

SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY SCT-BKN CU AT 3500-4500 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
THEN SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS JUST TO THE
LEFT OF 310 MAG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING TO THE RIGHT
OF 310 MAG BY 00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS JUST OVER 310
MAG...VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY 00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS JUST OVER 310
MAG...VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FU FROM A BRUSH FIRE NEAR KTEB MAY
OCCASIONALLY BE OBSERVED AT THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE.
.WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS AROUND 300 FT POSSIBLE. E WINDS 10-15
KT.
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE. E-SE FLOW
THURSDAY...TURNING TO THE NE FRIDAY.
.SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TO RUN 6-9 FT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE
OTHER WATERS BUT GUST FREQUENCY AND ITS COVERAGE ARE NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO GO WITH A SCA IN ANY OF THESE OTHER ZONES.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...BC/JC/LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN










000
FXUS61 KOKX 221652
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1252 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...REMAINING
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE...MAINLY WITH CLOUD COVER.
THE CLOUD BUILDUP WE HAVE SEEN IS FROM A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A
TROUGH AXIS/SHORTWAVE ALOFT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
LEFT HIGH TEMP FORECAST UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. HIGHS
AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE BASED ON LATEST SFC
OBS. WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT
GUSTS. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG DURING THE
DAY. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT
NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY BKN AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING RIGHT
AROUND 310 MAG BEFORE BACKING TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING RIGHT
AROUND 310 MAG BEFORE VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING RIGHT
AROUND 310 MAG BEFORE BACKING TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU AND FRI...VFR. MODERATE NE/N FLOW POSSIBLE. LOW PROB OF MVFR
CIGS IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS...DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR NORTH COASTAL LOW TRACKS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TO RUN 6-9 FT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE
OTHER WATERS BUT GUST FREQUENCY AND ITS COVERAGE ARE NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO GO WITH A SCA IN ANY OF THESE OTHER ZONES.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...BC/JC/LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS/NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 221652
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1252 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...REMAINING
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE...MAINLY WITH CLOUD COVER.
THE CLOUD BUILDUP WE HAVE SEEN IS FROM A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A
TROUGH AXIS/SHORTWAVE ALOFT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
LEFT HIGH TEMP FORECAST UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. HIGHS
AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE BASED ON LATEST SFC
OBS. WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT
GUSTS. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG DURING THE
DAY. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT
NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY BKN AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING RIGHT
AROUND 310 MAG BEFORE BACKING TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING RIGHT
AROUND 310 MAG BEFORE VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING RIGHT
AROUND 310 MAG BEFORE BACKING TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU AND FRI...VFR. MODERATE NE/N FLOW POSSIBLE. LOW PROB OF MVFR
CIGS IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS...DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR NORTH COASTAL LOW TRACKS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TO RUN 6-9 FT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE
OTHER WATERS BUT GUST FREQUENCY AND ITS COVERAGE ARE NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO GO WITH A SCA IN ANY OF THESE OTHER ZONES.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...BC/JC/LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS/NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 221440
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1040 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...REMAINING
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE. BUMPED UP HIGH TEMP
FORECAST AN AVERAGE OF A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM A GOOD DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL FLOW
APPEARS TO BE HELPING TEMPS RISE SO FAR...BUT THIS WILL BE
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD BUILDUP IS FROM A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A
TROUGH AXIS/SHORTWAVE ALOFT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
HAVE THEREFORE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR MOST SPOTS.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...UP TO AROUND
30 MPH AT TIMES.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE BASED ON LATEST SFC
OBS. WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT
GUSTS. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG DURING THE
DAY. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT
NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY BKN AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING RIGHT
AROUND 310 MAG BEFORE BACKING TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING RIGHT
AROUND 310 MAG BEFORE VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING RIGHT
AROUND 310 MAG BEFORE BACKING TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU AND FRI...VFR. MODERATE NE/N FLOW POSSIBLE. LOW PROB OF MVFR
CIGS IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS...DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR NORTH COASTAL LOW TRACKS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TO RUN 6-9 FT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS AN
OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. WIND
AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...BC/JC/LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS/NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 221123
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
723 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...REMAINING
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY.

WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD
GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG
DURING THE DAY. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY BKN AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU AND FRI...VFR. MODERATE NE/N FLOW POSSIBLE. LOW PROB OF MVFR
CIGS IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS...DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR NORTH COASTAL LOW TRACKS.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD SE SWELLS HAVE QUICKLY BUILT TO 5 TO 8 FT THIS MORNING
WITH OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TO RUNNING 6-9 FT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
WIND AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...BC/LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 221123
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
723 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...REMAINING
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY.

WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD
GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG
DURING THE DAY. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY BKN AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU AND FRI...VFR. MODERATE NE/N FLOW POSSIBLE. LOW PROB OF MVFR
CIGS IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS...DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR NORTH COASTAL LOW TRACKS.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD SE SWELLS HAVE QUICKLY BUILT TO 5 TO 8 FT THIS MORNING
WITH OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TO RUNNING 6-9 FT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
WIND AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...BC/LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 221102
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
702 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY.

WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD
GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG
DURING THE DAY. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY BKN AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU AND FRI...VFR. MODERATE NE/N FLOW POSSIBLE. LOW PROB OF MVFR
CIGS IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS...DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR NORTH COASTAL LOW TRACKS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS CURRENTLY 2-3 FT TOO HIGH WITH BOTH WAVE HEIGHTS AND
SWELL...WITH THE SWELL PEAKING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TODAY. SEAS WILL
STILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OCEAN SEAS REACHING
6-8FT BY 18Z AS AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA. WIND ALSO INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...BC/LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 221102
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
702 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY.

WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD
GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG
DURING THE DAY. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY BKN AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU AND FRI...VFR. MODERATE NE/N FLOW POSSIBLE. LOW PROB OF MVFR
CIGS IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS...DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR NORTH COASTAL LOW TRACKS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS CURRENTLY 2-3 FT TOO HIGH WITH BOTH WAVE HEIGHTS AND
SWELL...WITH THE SWELL PEAKING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TODAY. SEAS WILL
STILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OCEAN SEAS REACHING
6-8FT BY 18Z AS AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA. WIND ALSO INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...BC/LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 221047
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
647 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY.

WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD
GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG
DURING THE DAY. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY BKN AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS CURRENTLY 2-3 FT TOO HIGH WITH BOTH WAVE HEIGHTS AND
SWELL...WITH THE SWELL PEAKING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TODAY. SEAS WILL
STILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OCEAN SEAS REACHING
6-8FT BY 18Z AS AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA. WIND ALSO INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...BC/LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 221047
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
647 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY.

WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD
GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG
DURING THE DAY. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY BKN AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS CURRENTLY 2-3 FT TOO HIGH WITH BOTH WAVE HEIGHTS AND
SWELL...WITH THE SWELL PEAKING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TODAY. SEAS WILL
STILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OCEAN SEAS REACHING
6-8FT BY 18Z AS AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA. WIND ALSO INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...BC/LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 221026
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
626 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY
SUNRISE AND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.

WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD
GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG
DURING THE DAY. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY BKN AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS CURRENTLY 2-3 FT TOO HIGH WITH BOTH WAVE HEIGHTS AND
SWELL...WITH THE SWELL PEAKING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TODAY. SEAS WILL
STILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OCEAN SEAS REACHING
6-8FT BY 18Z AS AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA. WIND ALSO INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 221026
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
626 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY
SUNRISE AND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.

WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD
GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG
DURING THE DAY. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY BKN AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS CURRENTLY 2-3 FT TOO HIGH WITH BOTH WAVE HEIGHTS AND
SWELL...WITH THE SWELL PEAKING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TODAY. SEAS WILL
STILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OCEAN SEAS REACHING
6-8FT BY 18Z AS AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA. WIND ALSO INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 220848
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
448 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY
SUNRISE AND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.

WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS IN WAKE OF FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS
GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG DURING THE DAY. FOR
CITY TERMINALS...WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE JUST RIGHT OF 310 MAG THIS
MORNING...THEN COULD BACK A TO LEFT OF 310 MAG AT KJFK/KEWR THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH. WINDS AND GUST SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...VEERING GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT-BKN 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.LATE MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS CURRENTLY 2-3 FT TOO HIGH WITH BOTH WAVE HEIGHTS AND
SWELL...WITH THE SWELL PEAKING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TODAY. SEAS WILL
STILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OCEAN SEAS REACHING
6-8FT BY 18Z AS AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA. WIND ALSO INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN












000
FXUS61 KOKX 220832
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
432 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY
SUNRISE AND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.

WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS IN WAKE OF FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS
GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG DURING THE DAY. FOR
CITY TERMINALS...WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE JUST RIGHT OF 310 MAG THIS
MORNING...THEN COULD BACK A TO LEFT OF 310 MAG AT KJFK/KEWR THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH. WINDS AND GUST SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...VEERING GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT-BKN 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.LATE MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS CURRENTLY 2-3 FT TOO HIGH WITH BOTH WAVE HEIGHTS AND
SWELL...WITH THE SWELL PEAKING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TODAY. SEAS WILL
STILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OCEAN SEAS REACHING
6-8FT BY 18Z AS AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA. WIND ALSO INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 220732
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
332 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY
SUNRISE AND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.

WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS IN WAKE OF FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS
GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG DURING THE DAY. FOR
CITY TERMINALS...WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE JUST RIGHT OF 310 MAG THIS
MORNING...THEN COULD BACK A TO LEFT OF 310 MAG AT KJFK/KEWR THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH. WINDS AND GUST SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...VEERING GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

IFR CIGS ACROSS KGON...BECOMES VFR BEHIND THE FRONT BY 08Z. A FEW
-SHRA WITH FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR TODAY WITH SCT-BKN 4-5KFT CU
THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.LATE MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS CURRENTLY 2-3 FT TOO HIGH WITH BOTH WAVE HEIGHTS AND
SWELL...WITH THE SWELL PEAKING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TODAY. SEAS WILL
STILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OCEAN SEAS REACHING
6-8FT BY 18Z AS AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA. WIND ALSO INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.




&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN










000
FXUS61 KOKX 220732
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
332 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY
SUNRISE AND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.

WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS IN WAKE OF FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS
GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG DURING THE DAY. FOR
CITY TERMINALS...WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE JUST RIGHT OF 310 MAG THIS
MORNING...THEN COULD BACK A TO LEFT OF 310 MAG AT KJFK/KEWR THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH. WINDS AND GUST SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...VEERING GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

IFR CIGS ACROSS KGON...BECOMES VFR BEHIND THE FRONT BY 08Z. A FEW
-SHRA WITH FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR TODAY WITH SCT-BKN 4-5KFT CU
THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.LATE MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS CURRENTLY 2-3 FT TOO HIGH WITH BOTH WAVE HEIGHTS AND
SWELL...WITH THE SWELL PEAKING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TODAY. SEAS WILL
STILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OCEAN SEAS REACHING
6-8FT BY 18Z AS AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA. WIND ALSO INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.




&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN











000
FXUS61 KOKX 220556
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
156 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT...MEANWHILE A COASTAL
LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH
THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SEEMS TO BE THROUGH ORANGE
COUNTY NY AS OF 04Z AND WILL CONTINUE EAST. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. EVEN WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...SHOWERS ARE
NOT DISSIPATING AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE ADDED POPS
FOR LONG ISLAND AND CENTRAL/EASTERN CT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PATCHY FOG STILL IN PLACE OVER OUR EASTERN CT COUNTIES AND
CLEARING UP OVER LONG ISLAND. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

OTHERWISE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD BASED ON TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS IN WAKE OF FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS
GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG DURING THE DAY. FOR
CITY TERMINALS...WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE JUST RIGHT OF 310 MAG THIS
MORNING...THEN COULD BACK A TO LEFT OF 310 MAG AT KJFK/KEWR THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH. WINDS AND GUST SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...VEERING GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

IFR CIGS ACROSS KGON...BECOMES VFR BEHIND THE FRONT BY 08Z. A FEW
-SHRA WITH FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR TODAY WITH SCT-BKN 4-5KFT CU
THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.LATE MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY - WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER
OVER THE EASTERN TWO COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND
SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE
EXTENDED THE SCA FOR ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A
RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...LN/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT








000
FXUS61 KOKX 220556
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
156 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT...MEANWHILE A COASTAL
LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH
THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SEEMS TO BE THROUGH ORANGE
COUNTY NY AS OF 04Z AND WILL CONTINUE EAST. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. EVEN WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...SHOWERS ARE
NOT DISSIPATING AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE ADDED POPS
FOR LONG ISLAND AND CENTRAL/EASTERN CT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PATCHY FOG STILL IN PLACE OVER OUR EASTERN CT COUNTIES AND
CLEARING UP OVER LONG ISLAND. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

OTHERWISE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD BASED ON TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS IN WAKE OF FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS
GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG DURING THE DAY. FOR
CITY TERMINALS...WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE JUST RIGHT OF 310 MAG THIS
MORNING...THEN COULD BACK A TO LEFT OF 310 MAG AT KJFK/KEWR THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH. WINDS AND GUST SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...VEERING GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

IFR CIGS ACROSS KGON...BECOMES VFR BEHIND THE FRONT BY 08Z. A FEW
-SHRA WITH FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR TODAY WITH SCT-BKN 4-5KFT CU
THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.LATE MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY - WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER
OVER THE EASTERN TWO COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND
SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE
EXTENDED THE SCA FOR ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A
RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...LN/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KOKX 220450
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1250 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT...MEANWHILE A COASTAL
LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH
THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SEEMS TO BE THROUGH ORANGE
COUNTY NY AS OF 04Z AND WILL CONTINUE EAST. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. EVEN WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...SHOWERS ARE
NOT DISSIPATING AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE ADDED POPS
FOR LONG ISLAND AND CENTRAL/EASTERN CT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PATCHY FOG STILL IN PLACE OVER OUR EASTERN CT COUNTIES AND
CLEARING UP OVER LONG ISLAND. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

OTHERWISE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD BASED ON TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CDFNT...PASSING THROUGH THE NYC METRO AS OF 05Z...WILL MOVE EAST
OF ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT SW FLOW SWITCHES TO NW AND INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT.
STRONG NW FLOW MON WITH ISOLD GUSTS TO 30KT.

IFR CIGS ACROSS ERN TERMINALS...BECOMES VFR BEHIND THE FRONT. A
FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE INVOF THE FRONT...THEN VFR THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY - WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER
OVER THE EASTERN TWO COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND
SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE
EXTENDED THE SCA FOR ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A
RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...LN/DS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT










000
FXUS61 KOKX 220450
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1250 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT...MEANWHILE A COASTAL
LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH
THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SEEMS TO BE THROUGH ORANGE
COUNTY NY AS OF 04Z AND WILL CONTINUE EAST. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. EVEN WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...SHOWERS ARE
NOT DISSIPATING AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE ADDED POPS
FOR LONG ISLAND AND CENTRAL/EASTERN CT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PATCHY FOG STILL IN PLACE OVER OUR EASTERN CT COUNTIES AND
CLEARING UP OVER LONG ISLAND. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

OTHERWISE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD BASED ON TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CDFNT...PASSING THROUGH THE NYC METRO AS OF 05Z...WILL MOVE EAST
OF ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT SW FLOW SWITCHES TO NW AND INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT.
STRONG NW FLOW MON WITH ISOLD GUSTS TO 30KT.

IFR CIGS ACROSS ERN TERMINALS...BECOMES VFR BEHIND THE FRONT. A
FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE INVOF THE FRONT...THEN VFR THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY - WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER
OVER THE EASTERN TWO COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND
SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE
EXTENDED THE SCA FOR ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A
RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...LN/DS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT











000
FXUS61 KOKX 220244
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1044 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...AND CROSSES
THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT...MEANWHILE A COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE
EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH THEN DOMINATES
THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ABOUT 100 MILES SE OF MONTAUK
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS LOW HAS ENDED. MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK
EAST TOWARDS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. THE
SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED SO HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. THE LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
BEST DYNAMICS MOVING NW OF THE CWA.

HAVE ALSO SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED LOWS TONIGHT FOLLOWING LATEST TRENDS
IN LAV GUIDANCE. VALUES STILL FORECAST TO BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE NYC HEAT ISLAND...AND NEAR NORMAL INSIDE THE
HEAT ISLAND AND AREAS TO THE N/W OF NYC DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT.

ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING OVER SE CT/THE
TWIN FORKS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT - AM CURRENTLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ITS POTENTIAL
TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CDFNT ACROSS UPSTATE NY WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

LGT AND VRB WINDS BECOMING SW AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER. WINDS
SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG NW FLOW MON WITH ISOLD
GUSTS TO 30KT.

MAINLY VFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER OCNL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN
THE CITY AND IFR ERN TERMINALS. A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE INVOF THE
FRONT...THEN VFR THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
- HAVE CONVERTED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO A PLAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN TWO
COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR
ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KOKX 220244
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1044 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...AND CROSSES
THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT...MEANWHILE A COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE
EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH THEN DOMINATES
THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ABOUT 100 MILES SE OF MONTAUK
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS LOW HAS ENDED. MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK
EAST TOWARDS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. THE
SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED SO HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. THE LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
BEST DYNAMICS MOVING NW OF THE CWA.

HAVE ALSO SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED LOWS TONIGHT FOLLOWING LATEST TRENDS
IN LAV GUIDANCE. VALUES STILL FORECAST TO BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE NYC HEAT ISLAND...AND NEAR NORMAL INSIDE THE
HEAT ISLAND AND AREAS TO THE N/W OF NYC DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT.

ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING OVER SE CT/THE
TWIN FORKS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT - AM CURRENTLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ITS POTENTIAL
TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CDFNT ACROSS UPSTATE NY WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

LGT AND VRB WINDS BECOMING SW AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER. WINDS
SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG NW FLOW MON WITH ISOLD
GUSTS TO 30KT.

MAINLY VFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER OCNL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN
THE CITY AND IFR ERN TERMINALS. A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE INVOF THE
FRONT...THEN VFR THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
- HAVE CONVERTED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO A PLAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN TWO
COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR
ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT








000
FXUS61 KOKX 220144
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
944 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...AND CROSSES
THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT...MEANWHILE A COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE
EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH THEN DOMINATES
THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ABOUT 100 MILES SE OF MONTAUK
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS LOW HAS ENDED. MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK
EAST TOWARDS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. THE
SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED SO HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. THE LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE NEXT FEW HUORS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
BEST DYNAMICS MOVING NW OF THE CWA.

HAVE ALSO SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED LOWS TONIGHT FOLLOWING LATEST TRENDS
IN LAV GUIDANCE. VALUES STILL FORECAST TO BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE NYC HEAT ISLAND...AND NEAR NORMAL INSIDE THE
HEAT ISLAND AND AREAS TO THE N/W OF NYC DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT.

ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING OVER SE CT/THE
TWIN FORKS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT - AM CURRENTLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ITS POTENTIAL
TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CDFNT ACROSS UPSTATE NY WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

LGT AND VRB WINDS BECOMING SW AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER THIS EVE.
WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG NW FLOW MON WITH
ISOLD GUSTS TO 30KT.

MAINLY VFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER OCNL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN
THE CITY AND IFR ERN TERMINALS. A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE INVOF THE
FRONT...THEN VFR THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
- HAVE CONVERTED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO A PLAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN TWO
COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR
ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KOKX 220144
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
944 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...AND CROSSES
THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT...MEANWHILE A COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE
EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH THEN DOMINATES
THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ABOUT 100 MILES SE OF MONTAUK
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS LOW HAS ENDED. MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK
EAST TOWARDS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. THE
SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED SO HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. THE LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE NEXT FEW HUORS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
BEST DYNAMICS MOVING NW OF THE CWA.

HAVE ALSO SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED LOWS TONIGHT FOLLOWING LATEST TRENDS
IN LAV GUIDANCE. VALUES STILL FORECAST TO BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE NYC HEAT ISLAND...AND NEAR NORMAL INSIDE THE
HEAT ISLAND AND AREAS TO THE N/W OF NYC DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT.

ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING OVER SE CT/THE
TWIN FORKS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT - AM CURRENTLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ITS POTENTIAL
TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CDFNT ACROSS UPSTATE NY WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

LGT AND VRB WINDS BECOMING SW AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER THIS EVE.
WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG NW FLOW MON WITH
ISOLD GUSTS TO 30KT.

MAINLY VFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER OCNL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN
THE CITY AND IFR ERN TERMINALS. A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE INVOF THE
FRONT...THEN VFR THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
- HAVE CONVERTED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO A PLAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN TWO
COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR
ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT








000
FXUS61 KOKX 212348
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
748 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...AND CROSSES
THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT...MEANWHILE A COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE
EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH THEN DOMINATES
THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WAS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVING
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE LOW
WAS EXITING THE SOUTH FORK OF LONG ISLAND AND THE OCEAN WATERS
SOUTH OF THE EAST END. MEANWHILE THE LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF
THE MAIN LINE HAVE DISSIPATED. SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR CURRENT
TRENDS.

700-500 HPA TROUGH APPROACHES THIS EVENING THEN BEGINS TO CROSS
THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE OTHER LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS EAST WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND BEST DYNAMICS STAYING TO
THE NW/N.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT SUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH VALUES
FORECAST TO BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE NYC HEAT
ISLAND...AND NEAR NORMAL INSIDE THE HEAT ISLAND AND AREAS TO THE
N/W OF NYC DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.

ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING OVER SE CT/THE
TWIN FORKS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT - AM CURRENTLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ITS POTENTIAL
TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CDFNT ACROSS UPSTATE NY WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

LGT AND VRB WINDS BECOMING SW AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER THIS EVE.
WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG NW FLOW MON WITH
ISOLD GUSTS TO 30KT.

MAINLY VFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER OCNL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN
THE CITY AND IFR ERN TERMINALS. A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE INVOF THE
FRONT...THEN VFR THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
- HAVE CONVERTED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO A PLAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN TWO
COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR
ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT










000
FXUS61 KOKX 212043
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
443 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...MEANWHILE A
COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGH THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
700-500 HPA TROUGH APPROACHES THIS EVENING THEN BEGINS TO CROSS
THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS AND ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ANY -SHRA AHEAD OF IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
FALLING APART AS THEY APPROACH THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO LOSS OF
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AFTER SUNSET AND BEST DYNAMICS STAYING TO
THE NW/N. SO FOR NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER FAR W ORANGE COUNTY
TOWARDS MID EVENING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN TIER. FOR NOW BELIEVE PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THERE - HOWEVER A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO/SPRINKLE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT SUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH VALUES
FORECAST TO BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE NYC HEAT
ISLAND...AND NEAR NORMAL INSIDE THE HEAT ISLAND AND AREAS TO THE
N/W OF NYC DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.

ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING OVER SE CT/THE
TWIN FORKS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT - AM CURRENTLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ITS POTENTIAL
TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ON MONDAY.

IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TONIGHT AT KISP/KGON UNTIL COLD
FROPA...THOUGH THEY MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR A COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE
FROPA LATE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS TO RETURN TOWARD EVENING FOR 2-3 HRS BEFORE
COLD FROPA. TIMING OF FROPA LOOKS TO BE 05Z KSWF...05Z-06Z NYC
METRO...AND 07Z-08Z FARTHER EAST...WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

WNW WINDS...WEST OF 310 MAGNETIC...AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND
OR JUST OVER 20 KT...SHOULD DEVELOP BY 12Z MON. GUSTS COULD START
A COUPLE HRS SOONER THAN FCST...AND COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH 25 KT IN
NYC METRO BETWEEN 12Z-15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT INTO EARLY EVENING.
.TUE-THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
- HAVE CONVERTED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO A PLAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN TWO
COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR
ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KOKX 212043
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
443 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...MEANWHILE A
COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGH THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
700-500 HPA TROUGH APPROACHES THIS EVENING THEN BEGINS TO CROSS
THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS AND ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ANY -SHRA AHEAD OF IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
FALLING APART AS THEY APPROACH THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO LOSS OF
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AFTER SUNSET AND BEST DYNAMICS STAYING TO
THE NW/N. SO FOR NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER FAR W ORANGE COUNTY
TOWARDS MID EVENING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN TIER. FOR NOW BELIEVE PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THERE - HOWEVER A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO/SPRINKLE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT SUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH VALUES
FORECAST TO BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE NYC HEAT
ISLAND...AND NEAR NORMAL INSIDE THE HEAT ISLAND AND AREAS TO THE
N/W OF NYC DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.

ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING OVER SE CT/THE
TWIN FORKS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT - AM CURRENTLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ITS POTENTIAL
TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ON MONDAY.

IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TONIGHT AT KISP/KGON UNTIL COLD
FROPA...THOUGH THEY MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR A COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE
FROPA LATE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS TO RETURN TOWARD EVENING FOR 2-3 HRS BEFORE
COLD FROPA. TIMING OF FROPA LOOKS TO BE 05Z KSWF...05Z-06Z NYC
METRO...AND 07Z-08Z FARTHER EAST...WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

WNW WINDS...WEST OF 310 MAGNETIC...AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND
OR JUST OVER 20 KT...SHOULD DEVELOP BY 12Z MON. GUSTS COULD START
A COUPLE HRS SOONER THAN FCST...AND COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH 25 KT IN
NYC METRO BETWEEN 12Z-15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT INTO EARLY EVENING.
.TUE-THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
- HAVE CONVERTED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO A PLAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN TWO
COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR
ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT








000
FXUS61 KOKX 212024
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
424 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...MEANWHILE A
COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGH THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
700-500 HPA TROUGH APPROACHES THIS EVENING THEN BEGINS TO CROSS
THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS AND ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ANY -SHRA AHEAD OF IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
FALLING APART AS THEY APPROACH THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO LOSS OF
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AFTER SUNSET AND BEST DYNAMICS STAYING TO
THE NW/N. SO FOR NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER FAR W ORANGE COUNTY
TOWARDS MID EVENING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN TIER. FOR NOW BELIEVE PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THERE - HOWEVER A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO/SPRINKLE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT SUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH VALUES
FORECAST TO BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE NYC HEAT
ISLAND...AND NEAR NORMAL INSIDE THE HEAT ISLAND AND AREAS TO THE
N/W OF NYC DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.

ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING OVER SE CT/THE
TWIN FORKS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT - AM CURRENTLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ITS POTENTIAL
TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING AND PASS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY.

IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW HAVE MOVED BACK IN AT KISP/KGON...AND ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
TONIGHT UNTIL COLD FROPA...THOUGH THEY MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR A
COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE FROPA LATE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS ELSEWHERE MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING EXPECT AT LEAST TEMPO
MVFR CIGS TO RETURN TOWARD EVENING FOR 2-3 HRS BEFORE COLD FROPA.
TIMING OF FROPA LOOKS TO BE 05Z KSWF...05Z-06Z NYC METRO...AND
07Z-08Z FARTHER EAST...WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

WNW WINDS...WEST OF 310 MAGNETIC...AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND
OR JUST OVER 20 KT...SHOULD DEVELOP BY 12Z MON. GUSTS COULD START
A COUPLE HRS SOONER THAN FCST...AND COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH 25 KT IN
NYC METRO BETWEEN 12Z-15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT INTO EARLY EVENING.
.TUE-THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
- HAVE CONVERTED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO A PLAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN TWO
COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR
ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT









000
FXUS61 KOKX 212024
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
424 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...MEANWHILE A
COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGH THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
700-500 HPA TROUGH APPROACHES THIS EVENING THEN BEGINS TO CROSS
THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS AND ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ANY -SHRA AHEAD OF IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
FALLING APART AS THEY APPROACH THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO LOSS OF
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AFTER SUNSET AND BEST DYNAMICS STAYING TO
THE NW/N. SO FOR NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER FAR W ORANGE COUNTY
TOWARDS MID EVENING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN TIER. FOR NOW BELIEVE PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THERE - HOWEVER A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO/SPRINKLE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT SUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH VALUES
FORECAST TO BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE NYC HEAT
ISLAND...AND NEAR NORMAL INSIDE THE HEAT ISLAND AND AREAS TO THE
N/W OF NYC DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.

ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING OVER SE CT/THE
TWIN FORKS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT - AM CURRENTLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ITS POTENTIAL
TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING AND PASS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY.

IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW HAVE MOVED BACK IN AT KISP/KGON...AND ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
TONIGHT UNTIL COLD FROPA...THOUGH THEY MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR A
COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE FROPA LATE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS ELSEWHERE MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING EXPECT AT LEAST TEMPO
MVFR CIGS TO RETURN TOWARD EVENING FOR 2-3 HRS BEFORE COLD FROPA.
TIMING OF FROPA LOOKS TO BE 05Z KSWF...05Z-06Z NYC METRO...AND
07Z-08Z FARTHER EAST...WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

WNW WINDS...WEST OF 310 MAGNETIC...AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND
OR JUST OVER 20 KT...SHOULD DEVELOP BY 12Z MON. GUSTS COULD START
A COUPLE HRS SOONER THAN FCST...AND COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH 25 KT IN
NYC METRO BETWEEN 12Z-15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT INTO EARLY EVENING.
.TUE-THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
- HAVE CONVERTED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO A PLAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN TWO
COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR
ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT








000
FXUS61 KOKX 211929
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
329 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...MEANWHILE A
COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGH THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
700-500 HPA TROUGH APPROACHES THIS EVENING THEN BEGINS TO CROSS
THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS AND ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ANY -SHRA AHEAD OF IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
FALLING APART AS THEY APPROACH THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO LOSS OF
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AFTER SUNSET AND BEST DYNAMICS STAYING TO
THE NW/N. SO FOR NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER FAR W ORANGE COUNTY
TOWARDS MID EVENING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN TIER. FOR NOW BELIEVE PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THERE - HOWEVER A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO/SPRINKLE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT SUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH VALUES
FORECAST TO BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE NYC HEAT
ISLAND...AND NEAR NORMAL INSIDE THE HEAT ISLAND AND AREAS TO THE
N/W OF NYC DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.

ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING OVER SE CT/THE
TWIN FORKS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT - AM CURRENTLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ITS POTENTIAL
TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING AND PASS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY.

IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW HAVE MOVED BACK IN AT KISP/KGON...AND ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
TONIGHT UNTIL COLD FROPA...THOUGH THEY MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR A
COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE FROPA LATE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS ELSEWHERE MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING EXPECT AT LEAST TEMPO
MVFR CIGS TO RETURN TOWARD EVENING FOR 2-3 HRS BEFORE COLD FROPA.
TIMING OF FROPA LOOKS TO BE 05Z KSWF...05Z-06Z NYC METRO...AND
07Z-08Z FARTHER EAST...WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

WNW WINDS...WEST OF 310 MAGNETIC...AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND
OR JUST OVER 20 KT...SHOULD DEVELOP BY 12Z MON. GUSTS COULD START
A COUPLE HRS SOONER THAN FCST...AND COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH 25 KT IN
NYC METRO BETWEEN 12Z-15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT INTO EARLY EVENING.
.TUE-THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
- HAVE CONVERTED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO A PLAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN TWO
COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR
ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 211929
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
329 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...MEANWHILE A
COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGH THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
700-500 HPA TROUGH APPROACHES THIS EVENING THEN BEGINS TO CROSS
THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS AND ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ANY -SHRA AHEAD OF IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
FALLING APART AS THEY APPROACH THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO LOSS OF
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AFTER SUNSET AND BEST DYNAMICS STAYING TO
THE NW/N. SO FOR NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER FAR W ORANGE COUNTY
TOWARDS MID EVENING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN TIER. FOR NOW BELIEVE PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THERE - HOWEVER A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO/SPRINKLE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT SUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH VALUES
FORECAST TO BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE NYC HEAT
ISLAND...AND NEAR NORMAL INSIDE THE HEAT ISLAND AND AREAS TO THE
N/W OF NYC DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.

ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING OVER SE CT/THE
TWIN FORKS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT - AM CURRENTLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ITS POTENTIAL
TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING AND PASS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY.

IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW HAVE MOVED BACK IN AT KISP/KGON...AND ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
TONIGHT UNTIL COLD FROPA...THOUGH THEY MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR A
COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE FROPA LATE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS ELSEWHERE MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING EXPECT AT LEAST TEMPO
MVFR CIGS TO RETURN TOWARD EVENING FOR 2-3 HRS BEFORE COLD FROPA.
TIMING OF FROPA LOOKS TO BE 05Z KSWF...05Z-06Z NYC METRO...AND
07Z-08Z FARTHER EAST...WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

WNW WINDS...WEST OF 310 MAGNETIC...AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND
OR JUST OVER 20 KT...SHOULD DEVELOP BY 12Z MON. GUSTS COULD START
A COUPLE HRS SOONER THAN FCST...AND COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH 25 KT IN
NYC METRO BETWEEN 12Z-15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT INTO EARLY EVENING.
.TUE-THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
- HAVE CONVERTED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO A PLAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN TWO
COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR
ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT






000
FXUS61 KOKX 211832
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
232 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TO CLOSE THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHRA HAVE FLARED BACK UP OVER SE CT ALONG AN OLD BOUNDARY. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PA IS DISSIPATING AS IT HEADS EAST. BASED
ON THIS...TRENDED FORECAST TO DRY WEST WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

CIRRUS SHIELD HAS BLOWN OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE THERE WAS SOME
CLEARING EARLIER...AND HOLES IN CLOUD COVER TO THE EAST HAVE
FILLED. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS DO NOT SUPPORT IDEA OF MUCH...IF
ANY...IN THE WAY OF CLEARING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON OR SO. AS A
RESULT...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TO AT MOST UPPER 70S DUE TO THE IMPACT
OF CLOUD COVER.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND
AND WESTERN CT POINTS WEST. ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION...THINKING
THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT THIS FAR. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO
START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING AND PASS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY.

IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW HAVE MOVED BACK IN AT KISP/KGON...AND ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
TONIGHT UNTIL COLD FROPA...THOUGH THEY MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR A
COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE FROPA LATE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS ELSEWHERE MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING EXPECT AT LEAST TEMPO
MVFR CIGS TO RETURN TOWARD EVENING FOR 2-3 HRS BEFORE COLD FROPA.
TIMING OF FROPA LOOKS TO BE 05Z KSWF...05Z-06Z NYC METRO...AND
07Z-08Z FARTHER EAST...WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

WNW WINDS...WEST OF 310 MAGNETIC...AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND
OR JUST OVER 20 KT...SHOULD DEVELOP BY 12Z MON. GUSTS COULD START
A COUPLE HRS SOONER THAN FCST...AND COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH 25 KT IN
NYC METRO BETWEEN 12Z-15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT INTO EARLY EVENING.
.TUE-THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

SEAS BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 FT ON ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...AND FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT SE SWELLS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
THERE. ELSEWHERE WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SOME GUSTS DURING MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH
20-25 KT AT TIMES...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE
AN SCA AT THIS TIME.

WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SWELLS COULD KEEP SEAS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AT SCA LEVELS. AFTER THAT...A RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF -SHRA THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...BC/MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 211832
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
232 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TO CLOSE THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHRA HAVE FLARED BACK UP OVER SE CT ALONG AN OLD BOUNDARY. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PA IS DISSIPATING AS IT HEADS EAST. BASED
ON THIS...TRENDED FORECAST TO DRY WEST WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

CIRRUS SHIELD HAS BLOWN OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE THERE WAS SOME
CLEARING EARLIER...AND HOLES IN CLOUD COVER TO THE EAST HAVE
FILLED. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS DO NOT SUPPORT IDEA OF MUCH...IF
ANY...IN THE WAY OF CLEARING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON OR SO. AS A
RESULT...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TO AT MOST UPPER 70S DUE TO THE IMPACT
OF CLOUD COVER.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND
AND WESTERN CT POINTS WEST. ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION...THINKING
THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT THIS FAR. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO
START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING AND PASS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY.

IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW HAVE MOVED BACK IN AT KISP/KGON...AND ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
TONIGHT UNTIL COLD FROPA...THOUGH THEY MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR A
COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE FROPA LATE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS ELSEWHERE MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING EXPECT AT LEAST TEMPO
MVFR CIGS TO RETURN TOWARD EVENING FOR 2-3 HRS BEFORE COLD FROPA.
TIMING OF FROPA LOOKS TO BE 05Z KSWF...05Z-06Z NYC METRO...AND
07Z-08Z FARTHER EAST...WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

WNW WINDS...WEST OF 310 MAGNETIC...AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND
OR JUST OVER 20 KT...SHOULD DEVELOP BY 12Z MON. GUSTS COULD START
A COUPLE HRS SOONER THAN FCST...AND COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH 25 KT IN
NYC METRO BETWEEN 12Z-15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT INTO EARLY EVENING.
.TUE-THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

SEAS BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 FT ON ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...AND FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT SE SWELLS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
THERE. ELSEWHERE WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SOME GUSTS DURING MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH
20-25 KT AT TIMES...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE
AN SCA AT THIS TIME.

WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SWELLS COULD KEEP SEAS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AT SCA LEVELS. AFTER THAT...A RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF -SHRA THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...BC/MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC








000
FXUS61 KOKX 211630
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1230 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TO CLOSE THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHRA HAVE FLARED BACK UP OVER SE CT ALONG AN OLD BOUNDARY. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PA IS DISSIPATING AS IT HEADS EAST. BASED
ON THIS...TRENDED FORECAST TO DRY WEST WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

CIRRUS SHIELD HAS BLOWN OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE THERE WAS SOME
CLEARING EARLIER...AND HOLES IN CLOUD COVER TO THE EAST HAVE
FILLED. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS DO NOT SUPPORT IDEA OF MUCH...IF
ANY...IN THE WAY OF CLEARING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON OR SO. AS A
RESULT...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TO AT MOST UPPER 70S DUE TO THE IMPACT
OF CLOUD COVER.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND
AND WESTERN CT POINTS WEST. ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION...THINKING
THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT THIS FAR. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO
START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL PASS TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING...AND PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

IFR CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST ARE SHOWING
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT...AND MOST SHOULD GO MVFR BY 16Z. KHPN STILL
LIFR AS OF 15Z AND WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO IMPROVE.
TERMINALS TO THE EAST HAVE BKN MVFR CIGS AS OF 15Z.

THIS AFTERNOON...BKN MVFR CIGS MAY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST 18Z TO LIFT
TO VFR...AND EVEN THEN CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT MVFR CIGS HOLDING
ON LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON THAN FCST. ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THAT COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KISP/KGON.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT WESTERN
TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS WITH
COLD FROPA. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KISP/KBDR
THIS EVENING...AND LIKELY MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT KGON...UNTIL
COLD FROPA BETWEEN 04Z-08Z FROM WEST TO EAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MON NIGHT.
.TUE-THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

SEAS BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 FT ON ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...AND FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT SE SWELLS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
THERE. ELSEWHERE WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SOME GUSTS DURING MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH
20-25 KT AT TIMES...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE
AN SCA AT THIS TIME.

WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SWELLS COULD KEEP SEAS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AT SCA LEVELS. AFTER THAT...A RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF -SHRA THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...GOODMAN/NV
MARINE...MALOIT/BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/BC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 211509
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1109 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TO CLOSE THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-SHRA HAVE DISSIPATED THIS MORNING DUE TO NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 700 AND 500 HPA VORTICITY MINIMA MOVING
IN FROM THE W-SW.

ASSUMING LINE OF CONVECTION OVER W CENTRAL NY/PA HOLDS
TOGETHER...IT TIMES INTO FAR WESTERN ZONES BY 4 PM AT THE
EARLIEST. SO HAVE SOME SUGGESTION THAT REMAINDER OF TODAY COULD
END UP FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER...MESOSCALE MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...SO DID
LEAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN
LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF PRESENT TRENDS
HOLD...WILL BE CHANGING TO A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NEXT UPDATE AROUND NOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND FAR SE CT WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER
INTERIOR ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND
AND WESTERN CT POINTS WEST. ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION...THINKING
THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT THIS FAR. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO
START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL PASS TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING...AND PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

IFR CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST ARE SHOWING
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT...AND MOST SHOULD GO MVFR BY 16Z. KHPN STILL
LIFR AS OF 15Z AND WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO IMPROVE.
TERMINALS TO THE EAST HAVE BKN MVFR CIGS AS OF 15Z.

THIS AFTERNOON...BKN MVFR CIGS MAY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST 18Z TO LIFT
TO VFR...AND EVEN THEN CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT MVFR CIGS HOLDING
ON LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON THAN FCST. ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THAT COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KISP/KGON.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT WESTERN
TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS WITH
COLD FROPA. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KISP/KBDR
THIS EVENING...AND LIKELY MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT KGON...UNTIL
COLD FROPA BETWEEN 04Z-08Z FROM WEST TO EAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MON NIGHT.
.TUE-THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS OF 5 FT HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SO HAVE
DROPPED THE SCA FOR TODAY...BUT HAVE LEFT UP ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

SEAS BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 FT ON ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...AND FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT SE SWELLS. ELSEWHERE WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SOME GUSTS DURING MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH
20-25 KT AT TIMES...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE
AN SCA AT THIS TIME.

WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SWELLS COULD KEEP SEAS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AT SCA LEVELS. AFTER THAT...A RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...


LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF -SHRA THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY MON THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...GOODMAN/NV
MARINE...MALOIT/BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/BC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 211509
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1109 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TO CLOSE THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-SHRA HAVE DISSIPATED THIS MORNING DUE TO NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 700 AND 500 HPA VORTICITY MINIMA MOVING
IN FROM THE W-SW.

ASSUMING LINE OF CONVECTION OVER W CENTRAL NY/PA HOLDS
TOGETHER...IT TIMES INTO FAR WESTERN ZONES BY 4 PM AT THE
EARLIEST. SO HAVE SOME SUGGESTION THAT REMAINDER OF TODAY COULD
END UP FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER...MESOSCALE MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...SO DID
LEAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN
LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF PRESENT TRENDS
HOLD...WILL BE CHANGING TO A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NEXT UPDATE AROUND NOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND FAR SE CT WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER
INTERIOR ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND
AND WESTERN CT POINTS WEST. ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION...THINKING
THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT THIS FAR. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO
START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL PASS TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING...AND PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

IFR CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST ARE SHOWING
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT...AND MOST SHOULD GO MVFR BY 16Z. KHPN STILL
LIFR AS OF 15Z AND WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO IMPROVE.
TERMINALS TO THE EAST HAVE BKN MVFR CIGS AS OF 15Z.

THIS AFTERNOON...BKN MVFR CIGS MAY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST 18Z TO LIFT
TO VFR...AND EVEN THEN CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT MVFR CIGS HOLDING
ON LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON THAN FCST. ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THAT COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KISP/KGON.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT WESTERN
TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS WITH
COLD FROPA. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KISP/KBDR
THIS EVENING...AND LIKELY MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT KGON...UNTIL
COLD FROPA BETWEEN 04Z-08Z FROM WEST TO EAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MON NIGHT.
.TUE-THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS OF 5 FT HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SO HAVE
DROPPED THE SCA FOR TODAY...BUT HAVE LEFT UP ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

SEAS BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 FT ON ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...AND FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT SE SWELLS. ELSEWHERE WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SOME GUSTS DURING MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH
20-25 KT AT TIMES...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE
AN SCA AT THIS TIME.

WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SWELLS COULD KEEP SEAS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AT SCA LEVELS. AFTER THAT...A RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...


LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF -SHRA THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY MON THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...GOODMAN/NV
MARINE...MALOIT/BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/BC








000
FXUS61 KOKX 211211
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
811 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HEAVY RAIN BANDING HAS BEEN DISRUPTED AS LLJ AND AXIS OF SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS MOVED EAST AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY HAS WASHED OUT. OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM
0.50 TO 1.50 WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF
LONG ISLAND TODAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...HOWEVER
THE CHANCES ARE LOW AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING LOW WILL
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE NOT TO IMPACT THE AREA.

WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER
WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA...WHERE SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND FAR SE CT WHERE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER INTERIOR
ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND
AND WESTERN CT POINTS WEST. ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION...THINKING
THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT THIS FAR. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO
START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW TRACKS NE...JUST SE OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR TO VFR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...WITH SLOWER
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS EXPECTED FOR EASTERN TERMINALS. KGON LIKELY
REMAINS MVFR OR LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THREAT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
KISP/KGON...ISOLATED THREAT ELSEWHERE.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT WESTERN
TERMINALS. ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS...WITH
COLD FRONT. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE AT KISP/KBDR LATE
AFT/EVE...LIKELY MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT KGON...UNTIL COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z FROM W TO E.

LIGHT E/SE FLOW ACROSS TERMINALS THIS MORNING. FLOW SHOULD BECOME
S/SE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...SW FOR KSWF AND
POSSIBLY KEWR/KTEB. LIGHT SW FLOW THIS EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SHIFT TO THE NW 8 TO 12 KT BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
HAS SEAS REACHING SCA LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SUBSIDING FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.

SEAS INCREASE TONIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO
THE SE ARRIVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY...AND SOME GUSTS DURING
MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 20-25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN DRY MON
THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC








000
FXUS61 KOKX 211211
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
811 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HEAVY RAIN BANDING HAS BEEN DISRUPTED AS LLJ AND AXIS OF SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS MOVED EAST AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY HAS WASHED OUT. OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM
0.50 TO 1.50 WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF
LONG ISLAND TODAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...HOWEVER
THE CHANCES ARE LOW AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING LOW WILL
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE NOT TO IMPACT THE AREA.

WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER
WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA...WHERE SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND FAR SE CT WHERE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER INTERIOR
ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND
AND WESTERN CT POINTS WEST. ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION...THINKING
THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT THIS FAR. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO
START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW TRACKS NE...JUST SE OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR TO VFR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...WITH SLOWER
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS EXPECTED FOR EASTERN TERMINALS. KGON LIKELY
REMAINS MVFR OR LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THREAT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
KISP/KGON...ISOLATED THREAT ELSEWHERE.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT WESTERN
TERMINALS. ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS...WITH
COLD FRONT. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE AT KISP/KBDR LATE
AFT/EVE...LIKELY MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT KGON...UNTIL COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z FROM W TO E.

LIGHT E/SE FLOW ACROSS TERMINALS THIS MORNING. FLOW SHOULD BECOME
S/SE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...SW FOR KSWF AND
POSSIBLY KEWR/KTEB. LIGHT SW FLOW THIS EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SHIFT TO THE NW 8 TO 12 KT BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
HAS SEAS REACHING SCA LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SUBSIDING FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.

SEAS INCREASE TONIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO
THE SE ARRIVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY...AND SOME GUSTS DURING
MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 20-25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN DRY MON
THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 210951
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
551 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS. THE HEAVIES OF THE
RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN NASSAU COUNTY AND WESTERN
SUFFOLK AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO NEW HAVEN AND MIDDLESEX
COUNTIES IN CT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THERE HAVE RANGED FROM 0.50 TO
1.25 WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THINKING THE RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING.

OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...HOWEVER THE CHANCES ARE LOW AND
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE NOT
TO IMPACT THE AREA.

WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER
WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA...WHERE SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND FAR SE CT WHERE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER INTERIOR
ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND
AND WESTERN CT POINTS WEST. ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION...THINKING
THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT THIS FAR. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO
START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW TRACKS NE...JUST SE OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN STRATUS AND RAIN SHOWERS ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING. MAIN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF NYC
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE.

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR TO VFR THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWER THREAT SHIFTING
TO MAINLY KISP/KGON. SLOWER IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS. KGON LIKELY REMAINS MVFR OR LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY.

ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY VFR
CONDS EXPECTED AT WESTERN TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS
POSSIBLE AT KISP/KBDR LATE AFT/EVE...LIKELY MVFR OR LOWER AT
KGON...UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LIGHT N FLOW CITY TERMINALS AND SE ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. FLOW SHOULD BECOME S/SE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...SW FOR KSWF AND POSSIBLY KEWR/KTEB. SW FLOW THIS
EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SHIFT TO THE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
HAS SEAS REACHING SCA LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SUBSIDING FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.

SEAS INCREASE TONIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO
THE SE ARRIVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY...AND SOME GUSTS DURING
MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 20-25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE PRODUCING
ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED 1 INCH AMOUNTS IN LOCATIONS THAT ARE
SEEING MULTIPLE HEAVY SHOWERS OCCUR. NO FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS.

WEST OF NYC...LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN DRY MON THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 210951
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
551 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS. THE HEAVIES OF THE
RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN NASSAU COUNTY AND WESTERN
SUFFOLK AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO NEW HAVEN AND MIDDLESEX
COUNTIES IN CT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THERE HAVE RANGED FROM 0.50 TO
1.25 WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THINKING THE RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING.

OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...HOWEVER THE CHANCES ARE LOW AND
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE NOT
TO IMPACT THE AREA.

WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER
WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA...WHERE SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND FAR SE CT WHERE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER INTERIOR
ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND
AND WESTERN CT POINTS WEST. ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION...THINKING
THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT THIS FAR. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO
START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW TRACKS NE...JUST SE OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN STRATUS AND RAIN SHOWERS ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING. MAIN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF NYC
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE.

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR TO VFR THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWER THREAT SHIFTING
TO MAINLY KISP/KGON. SLOWER IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS. KGON LIKELY REMAINS MVFR OR LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY.

ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY VFR
CONDS EXPECTED AT WESTERN TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS
POSSIBLE AT KISP/KBDR LATE AFT/EVE...LIKELY MVFR OR LOWER AT
KGON...UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LIGHT N FLOW CITY TERMINALS AND SE ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. FLOW SHOULD BECOME S/SE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...SW FOR KSWF AND POSSIBLY KEWR/KTEB. SW FLOW THIS
EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SHIFT TO THE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
HAS SEAS REACHING SCA LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SUBSIDING FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.

SEAS INCREASE TONIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO
THE SE ARRIVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY...AND SOME GUSTS DURING
MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 20-25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE PRODUCING
ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED 1 INCH AMOUNTS IN LOCATIONS THAT ARE
SEEING MULTIPLE HEAVY SHOWERS OCCUR. NO FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS.

WEST OF NYC...LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN DRY MON THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC








000
FXUS61 KOKX 210857
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
457 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...HOWEVER THE CHANCES ARE LOW AND
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE NOT
TO IMPACT THE AREA.

WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER
WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA...WHERE SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND FAR SE CT WHERE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER INTERIOR
ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND
AND WESTERN CT POINTS WEST. ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION...THINKING
THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT THIS FAR. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO
START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW TRACKS NE...JUST SE OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN STRATUS AND RAIN SHOWERS ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING. MAIN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF NYC
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE.

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR TO VFR THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWER THREAT SHIFTING
TO MAINLY KISP/KGON. SLOWER IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS. KGON LIKELY REMAINS MVFR OR LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY.

ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY VFR
CONDS EXPECTED AT WESTERN TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS
POSSIBLE AT KISP/KBDR LATE AFT/EVE...LIKELY MVFR OR LOWER AT
KGON...UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LIGHT N FLOW CITY TERMINALS AND SE ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. FLOW SHOULD BECOME S/SE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...SW FOR KSWF AND POSSIBLY KEWR/KTEB. SW FLOW THIS
EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SHIFT TO THE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
HAS SEAS REACHING SCA LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SUBSIDING FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.

SEAS INCREASE TONIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO
THE SE ARRIVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY...AND SOME GUSTS DURING
MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 20-25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE PRODUCING
ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED 1 INCH AMOUNTS IN LOCATIONS THAT ARE
SEEING MULTIPLE HEAVY SHOWERS OCCUR. NO FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS.

WEST OF NYC...LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN DRY MON THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 210857
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
457 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...HOWEVER THE CHANCES ARE LOW AND
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE NOT
TO IMPACT THE AREA.

WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER
WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA...WHERE SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND FAR SE CT WHERE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER INTERIOR
ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND
AND WESTERN CT POINTS WEST. ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION...THINKING
THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT THIS FAR. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO
START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW TRACKS NE...JUST SE OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN STRATUS AND RAIN SHOWERS ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING. MAIN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF NYC
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE.

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR TO VFR THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWER THREAT SHIFTING
TO MAINLY KISP/KGON. SLOWER IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS. KGON LIKELY REMAINS MVFR OR LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY.

ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY VFR
CONDS EXPECTED AT WESTERN TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS
POSSIBLE AT KISP/KBDR LATE AFT/EVE...LIKELY MVFR OR LOWER AT
KGON...UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LIGHT N FLOW CITY TERMINALS AND SE ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. FLOW SHOULD BECOME S/SE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...SW FOR KSWF AND POSSIBLY KEWR/KTEB. SW FLOW THIS
EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SHIFT TO THE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
HAS SEAS REACHING SCA LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SUBSIDING FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.

SEAS INCREASE TONIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO
THE SE ARRIVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY...AND SOME GUSTS DURING
MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 20-25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE PRODUCING
ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED 1 INCH AMOUNTS IN LOCATIONS THAT ARE
SEEING MULTIPLE HEAVY SHOWERS OCCUR. NO FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS.

WEST OF NYC...LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN DRY MON THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC








000
FXUS61 KOKX 210759
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...HOWEVER THE CHANCES ARE LOW AND
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE NOT
TO IMPACT THE AREA.

WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER
WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA...WHERE SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND FAR SE CT WHERE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER INTERIOR
ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND
AND WESTERN CT POINTS WEST. ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION...THINKING
THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT THIS FAR. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO
START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW TRACKS NE...JUST SE OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS IN RAIN SHOWERS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING.
MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBY LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG COASTAL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. LOW PROB OF AN ISOLATED TSRA.

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR TO VFR THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING TO
MAINLY KGON. SLOWER IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
TERMINALS. KGON LIKELY REMAINS MVFR OR LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY VFR
CONDS EXPECTED AT WESTERN TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT
KISP/KBDR THIS EVENING...LIKELY MVFR OR LOWER AT KGON...UNTIL COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LIGHT SE FLOW THIS MORNING...INCREASING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW
LIKELY BECOMES SW FOR KSWF IN AFT...POSSIBLY KEWR/KTEB. SW FLOW
THIS EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SHIFT TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
HAS SEAS REACHING SCA LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SUBSIDING FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.

SEAS INCREASE TONIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO
THE SE ARRIVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY...AND SOME GUSTS DURING
MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 20-25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE PRODUCING
ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED 1 INCH AMOUNTS IN LOCATIONS THAT ARE
SEEING MULTIPLE HEAVY SHOWERS OCCUR. NO FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS.

WEST OF NYC...LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN DRY MON THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 210759
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...HOWEVER THE CHANCES ARE LOW AND
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE NOT
TO IMPACT THE AREA.

WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER
WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA...WHERE SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND FAR SE CT WHERE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER INTERIOR
ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND
AND WESTERN CT POINTS WEST. ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION...THINKING
THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT THIS FAR. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO
START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW TRACKS NE...JUST SE OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS IN RAIN SHOWERS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING.
MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBY LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG COASTAL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. LOW PROB OF AN ISOLATED TSRA.

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR TO VFR THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING TO
MAINLY KGON. SLOWER IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
TERMINALS. KGON LIKELY REMAINS MVFR OR LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY VFR
CONDS EXPECTED AT WESTERN TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT
KISP/KBDR THIS EVENING...LIKELY MVFR OR LOWER AT KGON...UNTIL COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LIGHT SE FLOW THIS MORNING...INCREASING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW
LIKELY BECOMES SW FOR KSWF IN AFT...POSSIBLY KEWR/KTEB. SW FLOW
THIS EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SHIFT TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
HAS SEAS REACHING SCA LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SUBSIDING FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.

SEAS INCREASE TONIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO
THE SE ARRIVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY...AND SOME GUSTS DURING
MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 20-25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE PRODUCING
ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED 1 INCH AMOUNTS IN LOCATIONS THAT ARE
SEEING MULTIPLE HEAVY SHOWERS OCCUR. NO FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS.

WEST OF NYC...LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN DRY MON THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC








000
FXUS61 KOKX 210613
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
213 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EXTENDING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS LONG ISLAND WHERE SOME
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ARE BEING OBSERVED. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS IS
MOVING THROUGH NASSAU AND QUEENS COUNTIES WHERE A QUICK QUARTER
TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH AREAS OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE BY 07Z-08Z

LOWS TONIGHT ARE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN WAA
TAKING PLACE...WITH NEAR 70 AT LGA...MID AND UPPER 60S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND AROUND 60 WELL INLAND AND OVER THE PINE BARRENS OF
LONG ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SCT SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND MAINLY IN THE AM...WITH ISOLD THUNDER
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...AS A WEAK NON-
TROPICAL LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SE OF LONG ISLAND.
HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THIS LOW SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ON
ITS EASTERN FLANK AND WELL OFFSHORE...SO DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY
RAINFALL ATTM. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON VIA
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...WHICH ALONG WITH WAA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE
LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER
INTERIOR ELEVATIONS.

PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
CHANCE POP NW OF NYC AND SLIGHT CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. AFTER FROPA
EXPECT SOME CLEARING LATE AT NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE AREA
LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO START
MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...IF
THE FRONT SLOWS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT INTO THE TWIN FORKS EARLY
MONDAY.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COOL
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN A WARMING
TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW TRACKS NE...JUST SE OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS IN RAIN SHOWERS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING.
MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBY LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG COASTAL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. LOW PROB OF AN ISOLATED TSRA.

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR TO VFR THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING TO
MAINLY KGON. SLOWER IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
TERMINALS. KGON LIKELY REMAINS MVFR OR LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY VFR
CONDS EXPECTED AT WESTERN TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT
KISP/KBDR THIS EVENING...LIKELY MVFR OR LOWER AT KGON...UNTIL COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LIGHT SE FLOW THIS MORNING...INCREASING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW
LIKELY BECOMES SW FOR KSWF IN AFT...POSSIBLY KEWR/KTEB. SW FLOW
THIS EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SHIFT TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WERE REMAINING IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE AND THE WIND OVER THE
WATERS HAS DIMINISHED FOR NOW. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COASTAL LOW
THE WIND WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. NOT CONFIDENT THAT SEAS WILL
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT AND HOLDING OFF ON AN ADVISORY.


BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW PASSING TO THE SE ARRIVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY MORNING...AND SOME GUSTS
DURING MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WIND...GUSTS...AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH WIND AND SEAS BELOW

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEN DRY MON THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/GOODMAN/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET








000
FXUS61 KOKX 210613
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
213 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EXTENDING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS LONG ISLAND WHERE SOME
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ARE BEING OBSERVED. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS IS
MOVING THROUGH NASSAU AND QUEENS COUNTIES WHERE A QUICK QUARTER
TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH AREAS OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE BY 07Z-08Z

LOWS TONIGHT ARE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN WAA
TAKING PLACE...WITH NEAR 70 AT LGA...MID AND UPPER 60S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND AROUND 60 WELL INLAND AND OVER THE PINE BARRENS OF
LONG ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SCT SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND MAINLY IN THE AM...WITH ISOLD THUNDER
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...AS A WEAK NON-
TROPICAL LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SE OF LONG ISLAND.
HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THIS LOW SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ON
ITS EASTERN FLANK AND WELL OFFSHORE...SO DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY
RAINFALL ATTM. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON VIA
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...WHICH ALONG WITH WAA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE
LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER
INTERIOR ELEVATIONS.

PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
CHANCE POP NW OF NYC AND SLIGHT CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. AFTER FROPA
EXPECT SOME CLEARING LATE AT NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE AREA
LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO START
MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...IF
THE FRONT SLOWS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT INTO THE TWIN FORKS EARLY
MONDAY.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COOL
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN A WARMING
TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW TRACKS NE...JUST SE OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS IN RAIN SHOWERS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING.
MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBY LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG COASTAL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. LOW PROB OF AN ISOLATED TSRA.

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR TO VFR THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING TO
MAINLY KGON. SLOWER IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
TERMINALS. KGON LIKELY REMAINS MVFR OR LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY VFR
CONDS EXPECTED AT WESTERN TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT
KISP/KBDR THIS EVENING...LIKELY MVFR OR LOWER AT KGON...UNTIL COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LIGHT SE FLOW THIS MORNING...INCREASING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW
LIKELY BECOMES SW FOR KSWF IN AFT...POSSIBLY KEWR/KTEB. SW FLOW
THIS EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SHIFT TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WERE REMAINING IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE AND THE WIND OVER THE
WATERS HAS DIMINISHED FOR NOW. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COASTAL LOW
THE WIND WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. NOT CONFIDENT THAT SEAS WILL
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT AND HOLDING OFF ON AN ADVISORY.


BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW PASSING TO THE SE ARRIVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY MORNING...AND SOME GUSTS
DURING MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WIND...GUSTS...AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH WIND AND SEAS BELOW

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEN DRY MON THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/GOODMAN/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET







000
FXUS61 KOKX 210502
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
102 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EXTENDING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS LONG ISLAND WHERE SOME
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ARE BEING OBSERVED. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS IS
MOVING THROUGH NASSAU AND QUEENS COUNTIES WHERE A QUICK QUARTER
TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH AREAS OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE BY 07Z-08Z

LOWS TONIGHT ARE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN WAA
TAKING PLACE...WITH NEAR 70 AT LGA...MID AND UPPER 60S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND AROUND 60 WELL INLAND AND OVER THE PINE BARRENS OF
LONG ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SCT SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND MAINLY IN THE AM...WITH ISOLD THUNDER
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...AS A WEAK NON-
TROPICAL LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SE OF LONG ISLAND.
HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THIS LOW SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ON
ITS EASTERN FLANK AND WELL OFFSHORE...SO DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY
RAINFALL ATTM. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON VIA
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...WHICH ALONG WITH WAA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE
LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER
INTERIOR ELEVATIONS.

PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
CHANCE POP NW OF NYC AND SLIGHT CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. AFTER FROPA
EXPECT SOME CLEARING LATE AT NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE AREA
LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO START
MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...IF
THE FRONT SLOWS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT INTO THE TWIN FORKS EARLY
MONDAY.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COOL
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN A WARMING
TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES TO EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING...AND SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT PASSES SUN NGT.

MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TNGT. HAVE RESTRICTED IFR TO
EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHERE APPEARS
BEST CHANCE OF -SHRA AND/OR DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR AT ALL BUT GON BY AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE
WITH THE FRONT SUN NGT...BUT MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ATTM.

SE-ESE WINDS UNDER 10 KT TONIGHT...WITH INLAND TERMINALS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SE FLOW CONTINUES SUN MRNG...THEN VEER TO THE
SW IN THE AFTN. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT SUN NGT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WERE REMAINING IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE AND THE WIND OVER THE
WATERS HAS DIMINISHED FOR NOW. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COASTAL LOW
THE WIND WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. NOT CONFIDENT THAT SEAS WILL
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT AND HOLDING OFF ON AN ADVISORY.


BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW PASSING TO THE SE ARRIVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY MORNING...AND SOME GUSTS
DURING MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WIND...GUSTS...AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH WIND AND SEAS BELOW

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEN DRY MON THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/GOODMAN/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/MALOIT
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET







000
FXUS61 KOKX 210502
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
102 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EXTENDING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS LONG ISLAND WHERE SOME
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ARE BEING OBSERVED. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS IS
MOVING THROUGH NASSAU AND QUEENS COUNTIES WHERE A QUICK QUARTER
TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH AREAS OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE BY 07Z-08Z

LOWS TONIGHT ARE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN WAA
TAKING PLACE...WITH NEAR 70 AT LGA...MID AND UPPER 60S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND AROUND 60 WELL INLAND AND OVER THE PINE BARRENS OF
LONG ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SCT SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND MAINLY IN THE AM...WITH ISOLD THUNDER
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...AS A WEAK NON-
TROPICAL LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SE OF LONG ISLAND.
HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THIS LOW SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ON
ITS EASTERN FLANK AND WELL OFFSHORE...SO DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY
RAINFALL ATTM. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON VIA
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...WHICH ALONG WITH WAA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE
LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER
INTERIOR ELEVATIONS.

PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
CHANCE POP NW OF NYC AND SLIGHT CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. AFTER FROPA
EXPECT SOME CLEARING LATE AT NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE AREA
LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO START
MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...IF
THE FRONT SLOWS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT INTO THE TWIN FORKS EARLY
MONDAY.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COOL
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN A WARMING
TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES TO EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING...AND SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT PASSES SUN NGT.

MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TNGT. HAVE RESTRICTED IFR TO
EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHERE APPEARS
BEST CHANCE OF -SHRA AND/OR DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR AT ALL BUT GON BY AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE
WITH THE FRONT SUN NGT...BUT MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ATTM.

SE-ESE WINDS UNDER 10 KT TONIGHT...WITH INLAND TERMINALS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SE FLOW CONTINUES SUN MRNG...THEN VEER TO THE
SW IN THE AFTN. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT SUN NGT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WERE REMAINING IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE AND THE WIND OVER THE
WATERS HAS DIMINISHED FOR NOW. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COASTAL LOW
THE WIND WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. NOT CONFIDENT THAT SEAS WILL
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT AND HOLDING OFF ON AN ADVISORY.


BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW PASSING TO THE SE ARRIVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY MORNING...AND SOME GUSTS
DURING MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WIND...GUSTS...AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH WIND AND SEAS BELOW

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEN DRY MON THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/GOODMAN/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/MALOIT
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET








000
FXUS61 KOKX 210251
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1051 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EXTENDING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO BUILD NORTH OVER LONG ISLAND AND QUEENS THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE BUILDING NORTH OVERNIGHT.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO FOLLOW THIS TREND.

ADJUSTED POP OVERNIGHT AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER TREND IN
ISO/SCT SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS. STILL FCST SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP MAINLY IN/NEAR NYC METRO LATE TONIGHT. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
ALSO POSSIBLE LATE WITH DRY MID LEVELS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS.
INSTABILITY INCREASES ALOFT LATE BUT MOSTLY AFTER DEEPER MOISTURE
AND BETTER LIFT HAVE MOVED EAST.. SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER ATTM.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN WAA
TAKING PLACE...WITH NEAR 70 AT LGA...MID AND UPPER 60S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND AROUND 60 WELL INLAND AND OVER THE PINE BARRENS OF
LONG ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SCT SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND MAINLY IN THE AM...WITH ISOLD THUNDER
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...AS A WEAK NON-
TROPICAL LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SE OF LONG ISLAND.
HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THIS LOW SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ON
ITS EASTERN FLANK AND WELL OFFSHORE...SO DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY
RAINFALL ATTM. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON VIA
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...WHICH ALONG WITH WAA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE
LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER
INTERIOR ELEVATIONS.

PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
CHANCE POP NW OF NYC AND SLIGHT CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. AFTER FROPA
EXPECT SOME CLEARING LATE AT NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE AREA
LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO START
MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...IF
THE FRONT SLOWS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT INTO THE TWIN FORKS EARLY
MONDAY.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COOL
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN A WARMING
TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES TO EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING...AND SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT PASSES SUN NGT.

MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TNGT. HAVE RESTRICTED IFR TO
EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHERE APPEARS
BEST CHANCE OF -SHRA AND/OR DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR AT ALL BUT GON BY AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE
WITH THE FRONT SUN NGT...BUT MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ATTM.

SE-ESE WINDS UNDER 10 KT TONIGHT...WITH INLAND TERMINALS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SE FLOW CONTINUES SUN MRNG...THEN VEER TO THE
SW IN THE AFTN. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT SUN NGT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WERE REMAINING IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE AND THE WIND OVER THE
WATERS HAS DIMINISHED FOR NOW. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COASTAL LOW
THE WIND WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. NOT CONFIDENT THAT SEAS WILL
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT AND HOLDING OFF ON AN ADVISORY.


BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW PASSING TO THE SE ARRIVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY MORNING...AND SOME GUSTS
DURING MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WIND...GUSTS...AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH WIND AND SEAS BELOW

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEN DRY MON THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/MALOIT
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET







000
FXUS61 KOKX 210251
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1051 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EXTENDING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO BUILD NORTH OVER LONG ISLAND AND QUEENS THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE BUILDING NORTH OVERNIGHT.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO FOLLOW THIS TREND.

ADJUSTED POP OVERNIGHT AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER TREND IN
ISO/SCT SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS. STILL FCST SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP MAINLY IN/NEAR NYC METRO LATE TONIGHT. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
ALSO POSSIBLE LATE WITH DRY MID LEVELS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS.
INSTABILITY INCREASES ALOFT LATE BUT MOSTLY AFTER DEEPER MOISTURE
AND BETTER LIFT HAVE MOVED EAST.. SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER ATTM.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN WAA
TAKING PLACE...WITH NEAR 70 AT LGA...MID AND UPPER 60S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND AROUND 60 WELL INLAND AND OVER THE PINE BARRENS OF
LONG ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SCT SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND MAINLY IN THE AM...WITH ISOLD THUNDER
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...AS A WEAK NON-
TROPICAL LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SE OF LONG ISLAND.
HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THIS LOW SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ON
ITS EASTERN FLANK AND WELL OFFSHORE...SO DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY
RAINFALL ATTM. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON VIA
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...WHICH ALONG WITH WAA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE
LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER
INTERIOR ELEVATIONS.

PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
CHANCE POP NW OF NYC AND SLIGHT CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. AFTER FROPA
EXPECT SOME CLEARING LATE AT NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE AREA
LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO START
MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...IF
THE FRONT SLOWS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT INTO THE TWIN FORKS EARLY
MONDAY.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COOL
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN A WARMING
TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES TO EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING...AND SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT PASSES SUN NGT.

MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TNGT. HAVE RESTRICTED IFR TO
EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHERE APPEARS
BEST CHANCE OF -SHRA AND/OR DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR AT ALL BUT GON BY AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE
WITH THE FRONT SUN NGT...BUT MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ATTM.

SE-ESE WINDS UNDER 10 KT TONIGHT...WITH INLAND TERMINALS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SE FLOW CONTINUES SUN MRNG...THEN VEER TO THE
SW IN THE AFTN. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT SUN NGT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WERE REMAINING IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE AND THE WIND OVER THE
WATERS HAS DIMINISHED FOR NOW. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COASTAL LOW
THE WIND WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. NOT CONFIDENT THAT SEAS WILL
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT AND HOLDING OFF ON AN ADVISORY.


BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW PASSING TO THE SE ARRIVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY MORNING...AND SOME GUSTS
DURING MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WIND...GUSTS...AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH WIND AND SEAS BELOW

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEN DRY MON THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/MALOIT
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET








000
FXUS61 KOKX 210144
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
944 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EXTENDING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO BUILD NORTH OVER LONG ISLAND AND QUEENS THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE BUILDING NORTH OVERNIGHT.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO FOLLOW THIS TREND.

ADJUSTED POP OVERNIGHT AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER TREND IN
ISO/SCT SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS. STILL FCST SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP MAINLY IN/NEAR NYC METRO LATE TONIGHT. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
ALSO POSSIBLE LATE WITH DRY MID LEVELS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS.
INSTABILITY INCREASES ALOFT LATE BUT MOSTLY AFTER DEEPER MOISTURE
AND BETTER LIFT HAVE MOVED EAST.. SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER ATTM.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN WAA
TAKING PLACE...WITH NEAR 70 AT LGA...MID AND UPPER 60S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND AROUND 60 WELL INLAND AND OVER THE PINE BARRENS OF
LONG ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SCT SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND MAINLY IN THE AM...WITH ISOLD THUNDER
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...AS A WEAK NON-
TROPICAL LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SE OF LONG ISLAND.
HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THIS LOW SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ON
ITS EASTERN FLANK AND WELL OFFSHORE...SO DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY
RAINFALL ATTM. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON VIA
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...WHICH ALONG WITH WAA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE
LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER
INTERIOR ELEVATIONS.

PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
CHANCE POP NW OF NYC AND SLIGHT CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. AFTER FROPA
EXPECT SOME CLEARING LATE AT NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE AREA
LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO START
MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...IF
THE FRONT SLOWS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT INTO THE TWIN FORKS EARLY
MONDAY.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COOL
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN A WARMING
TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES TO EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING...AND SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT PASSES SUN NGT.

MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP THIS EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE RESTRICTED IFR
TO EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHERE APPEARS
BEST CHANCE OF -SHRA AND/OR DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR AT ALL BUT GON BY AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE
WITH THE FRONT SUN NGT...BUT MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ATTM.

WINDS BACK TO THE SE-ESE AT UNDER 10 KT TONIGHT...WITH INLAND
TERMINALS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SE FLOW CONTINUES SUN
MRNG...THEN VEER TO THE SW IN THE AFTN. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT SUN NGT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WERE REMAINING IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE AND THE WIND OVER THE
WATERS HAS DIMINISHED FOR NOW. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COASTAL LOW
THE WIND WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. NOT CONFIDENT THAT SEAS WILL
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT AND HOLDING OFF ON AN ADVISORY.


BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW PASSING TO THE SE ARRIVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY MORNING...AND SOME GUSTS
DURING MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WIND...GUSTS...AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH WIND AND SEAS BELOW

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEN DRY MON THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/MALOIT
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET








000
FXUS61 KOKX 210144
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
944 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EXTENDING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO BUILD NORTH OVER LONG ISLAND AND QUEENS THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE BUILDING NORTH OVERNIGHT.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO FOLLOW THIS TREND.

ADJUSTED POP OVERNIGHT AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER TREND IN
ISO/SCT SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS. STILL FCST SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP MAINLY IN/NEAR NYC METRO LATE TONIGHT. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
ALSO POSSIBLE LATE WITH DRY MID LEVELS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS.
INSTABILITY INCREASES ALOFT LATE BUT MOSTLY AFTER DEEPER MOISTURE
AND BETTER LIFT HAVE MOVED EAST.. SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER ATTM.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN WAA
TAKING PLACE...WITH NEAR 70 AT LGA...MID AND UPPER 60S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND AROUND 60 WELL INLAND AND OVER THE PINE BARRENS OF
LONG ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SCT SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND MAINLY IN THE AM...WITH ISOLD THUNDER
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...AS A WEAK NON-
TROPICAL LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SE OF LONG ISLAND.
HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THIS LOW SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ON
ITS EASTERN FLANK AND WELL OFFSHORE...SO DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY
RAINFALL ATTM. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON VIA
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...WHICH ALONG WITH WAA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE
LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER
INTERIOR ELEVATIONS.

PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
CHANCE POP NW OF NYC AND SLIGHT CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. AFTER FROPA
EXPECT SOME CLEARING LATE AT NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE AREA
LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO START
MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...IF
THE FRONT SLOWS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT INTO THE TWIN FORKS EARLY
MONDAY.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COOL
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN A WARMING
TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES TO EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING...AND SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT PASSES SUN NGT.

MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP THIS EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE RESTRICTED IFR
TO EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHERE APPEARS
BEST CHANCE OF -SHRA AND/OR DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR AT ALL BUT GON BY AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE
WITH THE FRONT SUN NGT...BUT MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ATTM.

WINDS BACK TO THE SE-ESE AT UNDER 10 KT TONIGHT...WITH INLAND
TERMINALS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SE FLOW CONTINUES SUN
MRNG...THEN VEER TO THE SW IN THE AFTN. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT SUN NGT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WERE REMAINING IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE AND THE WIND OVER THE
WATERS HAS DIMINISHED FOR NOW. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COASTAL LOW
THE WIND WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. NOT CONFIDENT THAT SEAS WILL
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT AND HOLDING OFF ON AN ADVISORY.


BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW PASSING TO THE SE ARRIVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY MORNING...AND SOME GUSTS
DURING MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WIND...GUSTS...AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH WIND AND SEAS BELOW

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEN DRY MON THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/MALOIT
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET









000
FXUS61 KOKX 202354
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
754 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EXTENDING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WITH THE HIGH STILL HOLDING THE RAIN THAT WAS MOVING UP THE COAST
WAS SLOWLY WEAKENING...BUT STILL MAKING THE WAY UP THE COAST. DID
BACK OFF ON NORTHERN EXTENT AND TIMING OF THE POPS A LITTLE BIT.
 LOW CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE COASTAL SYSTEM WERE STREAMING NORTH.

WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING
ACROSS...THERE SHOULD BE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS LATE THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT
BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS. NOT EXACTLY SURE WHERE FOCUS OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE...AS NAM/GFS WERE WERE TOO FAR WEST WITH
EXTENT OF ONGOING PRECIP OFF THE DELMARVA...WHILE THE EARLIER
SREF/ECMWF HANDLED THINGS A LITTLE BETTER THERE INITIALLY BUT
STILL FCST SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY IN/NEAR NYC METRO TONIGHT
INSTEAD OF A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. INSTABILITY INCREASES ALOFT LATE
BUT MOSTLY AFTER DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT HAVE MOVED EAST..
SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER ATTM.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN WAA
TAKING PLACE...WITH NEAR 70 AT LGA...MID AND UPPER 60S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND AROUND 60 WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SCT SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND MAINLY IN THE AM...WITH ISOLD THUNDER
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...AS A WEAK NON-
TROPICAL LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SE OF LONG ISLAND.
HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THIS LOW SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ON
ITS EASTERN FLANK AND WELL OFFSHORE...SO DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY
RAINFALL ATTM. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON VIA
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...WHICH ALONG WITH WAA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE
LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER
INTERIOR ELEVATIONS.

PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
CHANCE POP NW OF NYC AND SLIGHT CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. AFTER FROPA
EXPECT SOME CLEARING LATE AT NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE AREA
LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO START
MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...IF
THE FRONT SLOWS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT INTO THE TWIN FORKS EARLY
MONDAY.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COOL
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN A WARMING
TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES TO EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING...AND SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT PASSES SUN NGT.

MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP THIS EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE RESTRICTED IFR
TO EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHERE APPEARS
BEST CHANCE OF -SHRA AND/OR DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR AT ALL BUT GON BY AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE
WITH THE FRONT SUN NGT...BUT MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ATTM.

WINDS BACK TO THE SE-ESE AT UNDER 10 KT TONIGHT...WITH INLAND
TERMINALS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SE FLOW CONTINUES SUN
MRNG...THEN VEER TO THE SW IN THE AFTN. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT SUN NGT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WERE REMAINING IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE AND THE WIND OVER THE
WATERS HAS DIMINISHED FOR NOW. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COASTAL LOW
THE WIND WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. NOT CONFIDENT THAT SEAS WILL
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT AND HOLDING OFF ON AN ADVISORY.


BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW PASSING TO THE SE ARRIVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY MORNING...AND SOME GUSTS
DURING MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WIND...GUSTS...AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH WIND AND SEAS BELOW

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEN DRY MON THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MET
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/MALOIT
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET











000
FXUS61 KOKX 202152
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
552 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS WILL
WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STILL SEEING BKN STRATOCU OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS
OUT OVER THE OCEAN SHOULD START STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH
TOWARD EVENING WELL IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK FRONTAL LOW OFF THE GA
COAST...AND AS A SHOT OF LOW- MID LEVEL WAA AND A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASS ACROSS...THERE SHOULD BE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS LATE
THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE AS MID LEVELS DRY
OUT BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS. NOT EXACTLY SURE WHERE FOCUS
OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE...AS NAM/GFS WERE WERE TOO FAR WEST WITH
EXTENT OF ONGOING PRECIP OFF THE DELMARVA...WHILE THE EARLIER
SREF/ECMWF HANDLED THINGS A LITTLE BETTER THERE INITIALLY BUT
STILL FCST SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY IN/NEAR NYC METRO TONIGHT
INSTEAD OF A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. INSTABILITY INCREASES ALOFT LATE
BUT MOSTLY AFTER DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT HAVE MOVED EAST..
SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER ATTM.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN WAA
TAKING PLACE...WITH NEAR 70 AT LGA...MID AND UPPER 60S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND AROUND 60 WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SCT SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND MAINLY IN THE AM...WITH ISOLD THUNDER
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...AS A WEAK NON-
TROPICAL LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SE OF LONG ISLAND.
HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THIS LOW SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ON
ITS EASTERN FLANK AND WELL OFFSHORE...SO DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY
RAINFALL ATTM. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON VIA
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...WHICH ALONG WITH WAA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE
LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER
INTERIOR ELEVATIONS.

PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
CHANCE POP NW OF NYC AND SLIGHT CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. AFTER FROPA
EXPECT SOME CLEARING LATE AT NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE AREA
LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO START
MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...IF
THE FRONT SLOWS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT INTO THE TWIN FORKS EARLY
MONDAY.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COOL
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN A WARMING
TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES TO EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING...AND SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MOST LIKELY VFR UNTIL EARLY EVENING. COULD SEE CEILINGS DOWN AROUND
3000-3500 FT THROUGH 21Z AT KLGA/KTEB/KHPN/KSWF.

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP THIS EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE
RESTRICTED IFR TO EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WHERE APPEARS BEST CHANCE OF -SHRA AND/OR DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL BUT GON BY AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY.

SSE-SE FLOW AROUND 10-15 KT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AT ALL BUT
KSWF...WHERE WINDS MORE SW-SSW. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AT ALL BUT KSWF/KHPN...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE AT THESE LOCATIONS.

WINDS BACK TO THE SE-ESE AT UNDER 10 KT TONIGHT...WITH INLAND
TERMINALS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS CONTINUE AS SUCH
SUNDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR...WITH ISOLD -SHRA WITH POSSIBLE
MVFR FAR EASTERN TERMINALS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MAY BE A CLOSE CALL FOR SCA CONDS TONIGHT ON THE OCEAN AS SE FLOW
PERSISTS AND GETS A LITTLE STRONGER. RIGHT NOW THINK WINDS AND
SEAS WILL STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA
CONDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO
THE SE ARRIVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY MORNING...AND SOME GUSTS
DURING MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WIND...GUSTS...AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH WIND AND SEAS BELOW

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEN DRY MON THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET









000
FXUS61 KOKX 202152
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
552 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS WILL
WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STILL SEEING BKN STRATOCU OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS
OUT OVER THE OCEAN SHOULD START STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH
TOWARD EVENING WELL IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK FRONTAL LOW OFF THE GA
COAST...AND AS A SHOT OF LOW- MID LEVEL WAA AND A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASS ACROSS...THERE SHOULD BE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS LATE
THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE AS MID LEVELS DRY
OUT BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS. NOT EXACTLY SURE WHERE FOCUS
OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE...AS NAM/GFS WERE WERE TOO FAR WEST WITH
EXTENT OF ONGOING PRECIP OFF THE DELMARVA...WHILE THE EARLIER
SREF/ECMWF HANDLED THINGS A LITTLE BETTER THERE INITIALLY BUT
STILL FCST SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY IN/NEAR NYC METRO TONIGHT
INSTEAD OF A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. INSTABILITY INCREASES ALOFT LATE
BUT MOSTLY AFTER DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT HAVE MOVED EAST..
SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER ATTM.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN WAA
TAKING PLACE...WITH NEAR 70 AT LGA...MID AND UPPER 60S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND AROUND 60 WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SCT SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND MAINLY IN THE AM...WITH ISOLD THUNDER
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...AS A WEAK NON-
TROPICAL LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SE OF LONG ISLAND.
HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THIS LOW SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ON
ITS EASTERN FLANK AND WELL OFFSHORE...SO DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY
RAINFALL ATTM. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON VIA
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...WHICH ALONG WITH WAA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE
LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER
INTERIOR ELEVATIONS.

PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
CHANCE POP NW OF NYC AND SLIGHT CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. AFTER FROPA
EXPECT SOME CLEARING LATE AT NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE AREA
LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO START
MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...IF
THE FRONT SLOWS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT INTO THE TWIN FORKS EARLY
MONDAY.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COOL
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN A WARMING
TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES TO EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING...AND SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MOST LIKELY VFR UNTIL EARLY EVENING. COULD SEE CEILINGS DOWN AROUND
3000-3500 FT THROUGH 21Z AT KLGA/KTEB/KHPN/KSWF.

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP THIS EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE
RESTRICTED IFR TO EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WHERE APPEARS BEST CHANCE OF -SHRA AND/OR DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL BUT GON BY AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY.

SSE-SE FLOW AROUND 10-15 KT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AT ALL BUT
KSWF...WHERE WINDS MORE SW-SSW. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AT ALL BUT KSWF/KHPN...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE AT THESE LOCATIONS.

WINDS BACK TO THE SE-ESE AT UNDER 10 KT TONIGHT...WITH INLAND
TERMINALS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS CONTINUE AS SUCH
SUNDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR...WITH ISOLD -SHRA WITH POSSIBLE
MVFR FAR EASTERN TERMINALS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MAY BE A CLOSE CALL FOR SCA CONDS TONIGHT ON THE OCEAN AS SE FLOW
PERSISTS AND GETS A LITTLE STRONGER. RIGHT NOW THINK WINDS AND
SEAS WILL STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA
CONDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO
THE SE ARRIVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY MORNING...AND SOME GUSTS
DURING MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WIND...GUSTS...AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH WIND AND SEAS BELOW

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEN DRY MON THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET










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