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000
FXUS61 KOKX 220011
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
711 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE MOVING NORTH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST DUE TO SUBTLE WEAK FEATURES...AND AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AS UPPER SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST...WITH RIDGING EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. SFC TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES LINGERS INTO TONIGHT...AND GLOBAL MODELS DO OUTPUT
LIGHT QPF THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

IF PRECIP DOES INDEED OCCUR...THIS MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC WITH
REGARD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECASTING.

SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.
AS MENTIONED...MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A CONCERN
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIQUID. IF SO...SCATTERED SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE
COULD FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH THE COLD SURFACE WHERE TEMPS FALL
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.

OTHERWISE...IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE THE RESULT.

HOWEVER...COMPLICATING THINGS IS THAT TEMPS THROUGH 850 HPA OR SO
WARM SLIGHTLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SO EVEN IF MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW PRODUCING PROCESSES...ANY PRECIP MAY
CHANGE OVER THE RAIN ANYWAY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THESE LOW
CLOUDS COULD BREAK UP SOMEWHAT AS RIDGE BUILDS.

TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF LATEST MOS AND FORECAST DATABASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A WARM FRONT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC...DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA.

WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT REAL HIGH COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. THESE TEMPS LIKELY
REMAIN STEADY MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO EAST FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL GUIDANCE DOES NOT MAINTAIN A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE THERE IS GENERALLY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE MIDWESTERN LOW DEEPENING AND TRACKING NORTHWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. ONLY CHANGE HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
COME THROUGH JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...AND CLEAR THE EASTERN ZONES
JUST AFTER 12Z CHRISTMAS DAY. ALSO...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROFILES
ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
EVENT.

WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG LIFT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO THERE
WILL BE A DEEP INFLUX OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. UP TO 2 INCHES WILL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY. THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO NOW BE DRY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES LATER SATURDAY AND TRACKS NORTH SUNDAY BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE STORM WILL BE INLAND AND THE AREA WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MON...WITH EVEN SOME LOCATIONS BEING IFR. LATEST SAT
IMAGERY IS INDICATING SOME OF SLIGHT CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...SO
CONDS MAY TEMPO INCREASE TO VFR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVE. THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO COME BACK DOWN HOWEVER. THERE IS ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF CONDS DROPPING TO IFR.

POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/SNOW WILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF...MOSTLY EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS.

A WEAK NLY FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KT GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO E/NE
BY MON AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN E FLOW AND RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS 10-20 KT...BECOMING
SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECMG LIKELY. IFR WITH +RA. S/SE WINDS
15-20G20-25KT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE WED NIGHT.
.THU...VFR CONDS RETURNING BY AFTN. -SHRA IN THE MORNING. W WINDS
15-20G25-35KT.
.FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND DRIFTS NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EAST WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SEAS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW INTO TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIND AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WIND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFTS
TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMES VERY GUSTY IN THE COLDER AIR.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS ALL THE WATERS DURING
THURSDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE TO BELOW GALE FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT DURING FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY...AND WIND AND SEA ARE
LIKELY TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY
JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS.

RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD TOTAL
1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KOKX 220011
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
711 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE MOVING NORTH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST DUE TO SUBTLE WEAK FEATURES...AND AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AS UPPER SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST...WITH RIDGING EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. SFC TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES LINGERS INTO TONIGHT...AND GLOBAL MODELS DO OUTPUT
LIGHT QPF THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

IF PRECIP DOES INDEED OCCUR...THIS MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC WITH
REGARD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECASTING.

SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.
AS MENTIONED...MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A CONCERN
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIQUID. IF SO...SCATTERED SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE
COULD FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH THE COLD SURFACE WHERE TEMPS FALL
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.

OTHERWISE...IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE THE RESULT.

HOWEVER...COMPLICATING THINGS IS THAT TEMPS THROUGH 850 HPA OR SO
WARM SLIGHTLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SO EVEN IF MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW PRODUCING PROCESSES...ANY PRECIP MAY
CHANGE OVER THE RAIN ANYWAY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THESE LOW
CLOUDS COULD BREAK UP SOMEWHAT AS RIDGE BUILDS.

TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF LATEST MOS AND FORECAST DATABASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A WARM FRONT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC...DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA.

WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT REAL HIGH COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. THESE TEMPS LIKELY
REMAIN STEADY MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO EAST FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL GUIDANCE DOES NOT MAINTAIN A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE THERE IS GENERALLY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE MIDWESTERN LOW DEEPENING AND TRACKING NORTHWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. ONLY CHANGE HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
COME THROUGH JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...AND CLEAR THE EASTERN ZONES
JUST AFTER 12Z CHRISTMAS DAY. ALSO...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROFILES
ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
EVENT.

WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG LIFT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO THERE
WILL BE A DEEP INFLUX OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. UP TO 2 INCHES WILL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY. THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO NOW BE DRY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES LATER SATURDAY AND TRACKS NORTH SUNDAY BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE STORM WILL BE INLAND AND THE AREA WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MON...WITH EVEN SOME LOCATIONS BEING IFR. LATEST SAT
IMAGERY IS INDICATING SOME OF SLIGHT CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...SO
CONDS MAY TEMPO INCREASE TO VFR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVE. THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO COME BACK DOWN HOWEVER. THERE IS ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF CONDS DROPPING TO IFR.

POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/SNOW WILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF...MOSTLY EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS.

A WEAK NLY FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KT GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO E/NE
BY MON AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN E FLOW AND RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS 10-20 KT...BECOMING
SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECMG LIKELY. IFR WITH +RA. S/SE WINDS
15-20G20-25KT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE WED NIGHT.
.THU...VFR CONDS RETURNING BY AFTN. -SHRA IN THE MORNING. W WINDS
15-20G25-35KT.
.FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND DRIFTS NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EAST WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SEAS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW INTO TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIND AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WIND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFTS
TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMES VERY GUSTY IN THE COLDER AIR.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS ALL THE WATERS DURING
THURSDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE TO BELOW GALE FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT DURING FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY...AND WIND AND SEA ARE
LIKELY TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY
JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS.

RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD TOTAL
1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KOKX 220011
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
711 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE MOVING NORTH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST DUE TO SUBTLE WEAK FEATURES...AND AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AS UPPER SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST...WITH RIDGING EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. SFC TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES LINGERS INTO TONIGHT...AND GLOBAL MODELS DO OUTPUT
LIGHT QPF THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

IF PRECIP DOES INDEED OCCUR...THIS MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC WITH
REGARD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECASTING.

SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.
AS MENTIONED...MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A CONCERN
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIQUID. IF SO...SCATTERED SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE
COULD FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH THE COLD SURFACE WHERE TEMPS FALL
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.

OTHERWISE...IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE THE RESULT.

HOWEVER...COMPLICATING THINGS IS THAT TEMPS THROUGH 850 HPA OR SO
WARM SLIGHTLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SO EVEN IF MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW PRODUCING PROCESSES...ANY PRECIP MAY
CHANGE OVER THE RAIN ANYWAY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THESE LOW
CLOUDS COULD BREAK UP SOMEWHAT AS RIDGE BUILDS.

TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF LATEST MOS AND FORECAST DATABASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A WARM FRONT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC...DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA.

WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT REAL HIGH COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. THESE TEMPS LIKELY
REMAIN STEADY MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO EAST FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL GUIDANCE DOES NOT MAINTAIN A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE THERE IS GENERALLY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE MIDWESTERN LOW DEEPENING AND TRACKING NORTHWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. ONLY CHANGE HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
COME THROUGH JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...AND CLEAR THE EASTERN ZONES
JUST AFTER 12Z CHRISTMAS DAY. ALSO...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROFILES
ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
EVENT.

WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG LIFT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO THERE
WILL BE A DEEP INFLUX OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. UP TO 2 INCHES WILL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY. THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO NOW BE DRY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES LATER SATURDAY AND TRACKS NORTH SUNDAY BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE STORM WILL BE INLAND AND THE AREA WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MON...WITH EVEN SOME LOCATIONS BEING IFR. LATEST SAT
IMAGERY IS INDICATING SOME OF SLIGHT CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...SO
CONDS MAY TEMPO INCREASE TO VFR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVE. THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO COME BACK DOWN HOWEVER. THERE IS ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF CONDS DROPPING TO IFR.

POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/SNOW WILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF...MOSTLY EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS.

A WEAK NLY FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KT GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO E/NE
BY MON AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN E FLOW AND RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS 10-20 KT...BECOMING
SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECMG LIKELY. IFR WITH +RA. S/SE WINDS
15-20G20-25KT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE WED NIGHT.
.THU...VFR CONDS RETURNING BY AFTN. -SHRA IN THE MORNING. W WINDS
15-20G25-35KT.
.FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND DRIFTS NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EAST WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SEAS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW INTO TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIND AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WIND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFTS
TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMES VERY GUSTY IN THE COLDER AIR.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS ALL THE WATERS DURING
THURSDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE TO BELOW GALE FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT DURING FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY...AND WIND AND SEA ARE
LIKELY TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY
JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS.

RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD TOTAL
1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 212057
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE MOVING NORTH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST DUE TO SUBTLE WEAK FEATURES...AND AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AS UPPER SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST...WITH RIDGING EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. SFC TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES LINGERS INTO TONIGHT...AND GLOBAL MODELS DO OUTPUT
LIGHT QPF THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

IF PRECIP DOES INDEED OCCUR...THIS MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC WITH
REGARD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECASTING.

SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.
AS MENTIONED...MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A CONCERN
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIQUID. IF SO...SCATTERED SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE
COULD FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH THE COLD SURFACE WHERE TEMPS FALL
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.

OTHERWISE...IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE THE RESULT.

HOWEVER...COMPLICATING THINGS IS THAT TEMPS THROUGH 850 HPA OR SO
WARM SLIGHTLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SO EVEN IF MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW PRODUCING PROCESSES...ANY PRECIP MAY
CHANGE OVER THE RAIN ANYWAY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THESE LOW
CLOUDS COULD BREAK UP SOMEWHAT AS RIDGE BUILDS.

TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF LATEST MOS AND FORECAST DATABASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A WARM FRONT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC...DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA.

WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT REAL HIGH COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. THESE TEMPS LIKELY
REMAIN STEADY MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO EAST FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL GUIDANCE DOES NOT MAINTAIN A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE THERE IS GENERALLY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE MIDWESTERN LOW DEEPENING AND TRACKING NORTHWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. ONLY CHANGE HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
COME THROUGH JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...AND CLEAR THE EASTERN ZONES
JUST AFTER 12Z CHRISTMAS DAY. ALSO...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROFILES
ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
EVENT.

WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG LIFT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO THERE
WILL BE A DEEP INFLUX OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. UP TO 2 INCHES WILL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY. THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO NOW BE DRY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES LATER SATURDAY AND TRACKS NORTH SUNDAY BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE STORM WILL BE INLAND AND THE AREA WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MON...WITH EVEN SOME LOCATIONS BEING IFR.

POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/SNOW WILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF...MAINLY EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS.

A WEAK NLY FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KT GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO E/NE
BY MON AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW.
RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WEDNESDAY...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECOMING LIKELY. IFR CONDS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND S/SE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDS IN THE MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. VFR
CONDS BY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND DRIFTS NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EAST WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SEAS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW INTO TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIND AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WIND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFTS
TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMES VERY GUSTY IN THE COLDER AIR.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS ALL THE WATERS DURING
THURSDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE TO BELOW GALE FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT DURING FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY...AND WIND AND SEA ARE
LIKELY TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY
JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS.

RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD TOTAL
1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...MET/PW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 212057
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE MOVING NORTH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST DUE TO SUBTLE WEAK FEATURES...AND AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AS UPPER SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST...WITH RIDGING EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. SFC TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES LINGERS INTO TONIGHT...AND GLOBAL MODELS DO OUTPUT
LIGHT QPF THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

IF PRECIP DOES INDEED OCCUR...THIS MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC WITH
REGARD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECASTING.

SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.
AS MENTIONED...MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A CONCERN
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIQUID. IF SO...SCATTERED SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE
COULD FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH THE COLD SURFACE WHERE TEMPS FALL
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.

OTHERWISE...IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE THE RESULT.

HOWEVER...COMPLICATING THINGS IS THAT TEMPS THROUGH 850 HPA OR SO
WARM SLIGHTLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SO EVEN IF MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW PRODUCING PROCESSES...ANY PRECIP MAY
CHANGE OVER THE RAIN ANYWAY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THESE LOW
CLOUDS COULD BREAK UP SOMEWHAT AS RIDGE BUILDS.

TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF LATEST MOS AND FORECAST DATABASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A WARM FRONT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC...DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA.

WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT REAL HIGH COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. THESE TEMPS LIKELY
REMAIN STEADY MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO EAST FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL GUIDANCE DOES NOT MAINTAIN A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE THERE IS GENERALLY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE MIDWESTERN LOW DEEPENING AND TRACKING NORTHWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. ONLY CHANGE HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
COME THROUGH JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...AND CLEAR THE EASTERN ZONES
JUST AFTER 12Z CHRISTMAS DAY. ALSO...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROFILES
ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
EVENT.

WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG LIFT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO THERE
WILL BE A DEEP INFLUX OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. UP TO 2 INCHES WILL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY. THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO NOW BE DRY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES LATER SATURDAY AND TRACKS NORTH SUNDAY BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE STORM WILL BE INLAND AND THE AREA WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MON...WITH EVEN SOME LOCATIONS BEING IFR.

POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/SNOW WILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF...MAINLY EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS.

A WEAK NLY FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KT GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO E/NE
BY MON AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW.
RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WEDNESDAY...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECOMING LIKELY. IFR CONDS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND S/SE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDS IN THE MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. VFR
CONDS BY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND DRIFTS NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EAST WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SEAS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW INTO TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIND AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WIND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFTS
TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMES VERY GUSTY IN THE COLDER AIR.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS ALL THE WATERS DURING
THURSDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE TO BELOW GALE FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT DURING FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY...AND WIND AND SEA ARE
LIKELY TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY
JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS.

RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD TOTAL
1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...MET/PW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 211759
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1259 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ON CHRISTMAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ZONES WILL ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED ALOFT AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. PCPN TYPE MAINLY SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT
ICE NUCLEI LIKELY PRESENT...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. PROBABLY A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW THERE...PROBABLY EVEN MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN OVER
THE PARTS OF THE FORKS REGION. IN SHORT...TRACE TO HALF INCH OF
SNOW CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER LONG ISLAND...WITH UP TO AROUND AN
INCH ACROSS PARTS OF SE CT. MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA COULD GET
A FLURRY OR TWO THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXIT EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST.
WILL GO WITH SCT FLURRIES OVER LI AND CT...AND PCPN TYPE OF
SPRINKLES ALSO PROBABLY PRESENT EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE
LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT RESERVED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. CHC POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...FOR
SOME NW SECTIONS...MODELS SHOWING A WARM NOSE ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR
A CHANCE OF SLEET DURING THE EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN
AS THE WARMEST PART OF THE NOSE EXCEEDS 3C AND SURFACE TEMPS HOVER
AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...BUT THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. ECMWF OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WETTER FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY
DRIER...AND THE NAM SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WILL
CAP POPS AT 50% AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE EARLY ON IN THE MORNING FOR THE FAR NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING NORTH OF US WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...SO BY CHRISTMAS MORNING...SHOWERS STILL LIKELY EARLY ON FOR
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. BY NOON...LIKELY DRY EVERYWHERE.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. LOOKS LIKE WE FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA HOWEVER. WILL NEED TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THE
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN WELL INTO THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE
WSW FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS COOLER
TEMPS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMALS. THEN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER
INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MON. LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS NO
SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT WITH WEAK SFC TROF DRAPED ACROSS AREA AND
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. CIGS MAY
EVEN DROP TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO MON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/SNOW WILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF IN PLACE...MAINLY EAST OF
THE NYC TERMINALS.

A WEAK NLY FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KT GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO E/NE
BY MON AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WEDNESDAY...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECOMING LIKELY. IFR CONDS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND S/SE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDS IN THE MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. VFR
CONDS BY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL
OTHER WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KOKX 211759
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1259 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ON CHRISTMAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ZONES WILL ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED ALOFT AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. PCPN TYPE MAINLY SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT
ICE NUCLEI LIKELY PRESENT...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. PROBABLY A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW THERE...PROBABLY EVEN MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN OVER
THE PARTS OF THE FORKS REGION. IN SHORT...TRACE TO HALF INCH OF
SNOW CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER LONG ISLAND...WITH UP TO AROUND AN
INCH ACROSS PARTS OF SE CT. MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA COULD GET
A FLURRY OR TWO THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXIT EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST.
WILL GO WITH SCT FLURRIES OVER LI AND CT...AND PCPN TYPE OF
SPRINKLES ALSO PROBABLY PRESENT EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE
LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT RESERVED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. CHC POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...FOR
SOME NW SECTIONS...MODELS SHOWING A WARM NOSE ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR
A CHANCE OF SLEET DURING THE EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN
AS THE WARMEST PART OF THE NOSE EXCEEDS 3C AND SURFACE TEMPS HOVER
AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...BUT THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. ECMWF OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WETTER FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY
DRIER...AND THE NAM SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WILL
CAP POPS AT 50% AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE EARLY ON IN THE MORNING FOR THE FAR NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING NORTH OF US WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...SO BY CHRISTMAS MORNING...SHOWERS STILL LIKELY EARLY ON FOR
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. BY NOON...LIKELY DRY EVERYWHERE.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. LOOKS LIKE WE FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA HOWEVER. WILL NEED TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THE
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN WELL INTO THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE
WSW FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS COOLER
TEMPS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMALS. THEN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER
INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MON. LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS NO
SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT WITH WEAK SFC TROF DRAPED ACROSS AREA AND
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. CIGS MAY
EVEN DROP TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO MON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/SNOW WILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF IN PLACE...MAINLY EAST OF
THE NYC TERMINALS.

A WEAK NLY FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KT GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO E/NE
BY MON AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WEDNESDAY...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECOMING LIKELY. IFR CONDS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND S/SE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDS IN THE MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. VFR
CONDS BY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL
OTHER WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KOKX 211525
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1025 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ON CHRISTMAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ZONES CONTINUES TO ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND LIFT IS PROVIDED ALOFT AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. PCPN TYPE MAINLY SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT
ICE NUCLEI LIKELY PRESENT...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. PROBABLY A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW THERE...PROBABLY EVEN MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN OVER
THE PARTS OF THE FORKS REGION. IN SHORT...TRACE TO HALF INCH OF
SNOW CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER LONG ISLAND...WITH UP TO AROUND AN
INCH ACROSS PARTS OF SE CT. MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA COULD GET
A FLURRY OR TWO THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY STAY IN THE 30S...EXCEPT FOR THOSE
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN LOCALES OF THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXIT EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST.
WILL GO WITH SCT FLURRIES OVER LI AND CT...AND PCPN TYPE OF
SPRINKLES ALSO PROBABLY PRESENT EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE
LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT RESERVED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. CHC POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...FOR
SOME NW SECTIONS...MODELS SHOWING A WARM NOSE ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR
A CHANCE OF SLEET DURING THE EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN
AS THE WARMEST PART OF THE NOSE EXCEEDS 3C AND SURFACE TEMPS HOVER
AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...BUT THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. ECMWF OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WETTER FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY
DRIER...AND THE NAM SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WILL
CAP POPS AT 50% AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE EARLY ON IN THE MORNING FOR THE FAR NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING NORTH OF US WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...SO BY CHRISTMAS MORNING...SHOWERS STILL LIKELY EARLY ON FOR
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. BY NOON...LIKELY DRY EVERYWHERE.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. LOOKS LIKE WE FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA HOWEVER. WILL NEED TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THE
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN WELL INTO THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE
WSW FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS COOLER
TEMPS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMALS. THEN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER
INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN -SN ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR EASTERN TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH CIGS BECOMING VFR WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SUPPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS REMAINING THROUGH THIS AFT.
WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR TRENDS.

MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

NW-N AT 5-8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LGT/VRB AGAIN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WEDNESDAY...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECOMING LIKELY. IFR CONDS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND SE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDS IN THE MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. VFR
CONDS BY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL
OTHER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC/DW
AVIATION...MPS/DW
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC








000
FXUS61 KOKX 211525
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1025 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ON CHRISTMAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ZONES CONTINUES TO ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND LIFT IS PROVIDED ALOFT AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. PCPN TYPE MAINLY SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT
ICE NUCLEI LIKELY PRESENT...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. PROBABLY A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW THERE...PROBABLY EVEN MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN OVER
THE PARTS OF THE FORKS REGION. IN SHORT...TRACE TO HALF INCH OF
SNOW CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER LONG ISLAND...WITH UP TO AROUND AN
INCH ACROSS PARTS OF SE CT. MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA COULD GET
A FLURRY OR TWO THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY STAY IN THE 30S...EXCEPT FOR THOSE
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN LOCALES OF THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXIT EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST.
WILL GO WITH SCT FLURRIES OVER LI AND CT...AND PCPN TYPE OF
SPRINKLES ALSO PROBABLY PRESENT EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE
LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT RESERVED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. CHC POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...FOR
SOME NW SECTIONS...MODELS SHOWING A WARM NOSE ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR
A CHANCE OF SLEET DURING THE EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN
AS THE WARMEST PART OF THE NOSE EXCEEDS 3C AND SURFACE TEMPS HOVER
AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...BUT THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. ECMWF OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WETTER FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY
DRIER...AND THE NAM SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WILL
CAP POPS AT 50% AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE EARLY ON IN THE MORNING FOR THE FAR NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING NORTH OF US WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...SO BY CHRISTMAS MORNING...SHOWERS STILL LIKELY EARLY ON FOR
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. BY NOON...LIKELY DRY EVERYWHERE.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. LOOKS LIKE WE FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA HOWEVER. WILL NEED TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THE
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN WELL INTO THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE
WSW FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS COOLER
TEMPS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMALS. THEN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER
INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN -SN ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR EASTERN TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH CIGS BECOMING VFR WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SUPPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS REMAINING THROUGH THIS AFT.
WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR TRENDS.

MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

NW-N AT 5-8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LGT/VRB AGAIN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WEDNESDAY...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECOMING LIKELY. IFR CONDS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND SE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDS IN THE MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. VFR
CONDS BY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL
OTHER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC/DW
AVIATION...MPS/DW
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 211121
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
621 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ON CHRISTMAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ZONES WILL ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED ALOFT AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. PCPN TYPE MAINLY SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT
ICE NUCLEI LIKELY PRESENT...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN
LONG ISLAND COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. PROBABLY A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW THERE...PROBABLY EVEN MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN OVER THE
PARTS OF THE FORKS REGION. IN SHORT...TRACE TO HALF INCH OF SNOW
CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER LONG ISLAND...WITH UP TO AROUND AN INCH
ACROSS PARTS OF SE CT. MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA COULD GET A
FLURRY OR TWO THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXIT EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST.
WILL GO WITH SCT FLURRIES OVER LI AND CT...AND PCPN TYPE OF
SPRINKLES ALSO PROBABLY PRESENT EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE
LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT RESERVED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. CHC POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...FOR
SOME NW SECTIONS...MODELS SHOWING A WARM NOSE ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR
A CHANCE OF SLEET DURING THE EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN
AS THE WARMEST PART OF THE NOSE EXCEEDS 3C AND SURFACE TEMPS HOVER
AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...BUT THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. ECMWF OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WETTER FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY
DRIER...AND THE NAM SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WILL
CAP POPS AT 50% AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE EARLY ON IN THE MORNING FOR THE FAR NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING NORTH OF US WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...SO BY CHRISTMAS MORNING...SHOWERS STILL LIKELY EARLY ON FOR
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. BY NOON...LIKELY DRY EVERYWHERE.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. LOOKS LIKE WE FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA HOWEVER. WILL NEED TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THE
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN WELL INTO THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE
WSW FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS COOLER
TEMPS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMALS. THEN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER
INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN -SN ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR EASTERN TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

LGT/VRB WINDS WILL BECOME NW AT 5-7 KT BY 14Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
LGT/VRB AGAIN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WEDNESDAY...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECOMING LIKELY. IFR CONDS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND SE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDS IN THE MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. VFR
CONDS BY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL
OTHER WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC












000
FXUS61 KOKX 211121
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
621 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ON CHRISTMAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ZONES WILL ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED ALOFT AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. PCPN TYPE MAINLY SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT
ICE NUCLEI LIKELY PRESENT...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN
LONG ISLAND COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. PROBABLY A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW THERE...PROBABLY EVEN MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN OVER THE
PARTS OF THE FORKS REGION. IN SHORT...TRACE TO HALF INCH OF SNOW
CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER LONG ISLAND...WITH UP TO AROUND AN INCH
ACROSS PARTS OF SE CT. MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA COULD GET A
FLURRY OR TWO THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXIT EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST.
WILL GO WITH SCT FLURRIES OVER LI AND CT...AND PCPN TYPE OF
SPRINKLES ALSO PROBABLY PRESENT EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE
LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT RESERVED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. CHC POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...FOR
SOME NW SECTIONS...MODELS SHOWING A WARM NOSE ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR
A CHANCE OF SLEET DURING THE EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN
AS THE WARMEST PART OF THE NOSE EXCEEDS 3C AND SURFACE TEMPS HOVER
AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...BUT THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. ECMWF OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WETTER FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY
DRIER...AND THE NAM SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WILL
CAP POPS AT 50% AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE EARLY ON IN THE MORNING FOR THE FAR NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING NORTH OF US WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...SO BY CHRISTMAS MORNING...SHOWERS STILL LIKELY EARLY ON FOR
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. BY NOON...LIKELY DRY EVERYWHERE.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. LOOKS LIKE WE FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA HOWEVER. WILL NEED TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THE
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN WELL INTO THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE
WSW FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS COOLER
TEMPS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMALS. THEN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER
INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN -SN ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR EASTERN TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

LGT/VRB WINDS WILL BECOME NW AT 5-7 KT BY 14Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
LGT/VRB AGAIN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WEDNESDAY...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECOMING LIKELY. IFR CONDS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND SE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDS IN THE MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. VFR
CONDS BY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL
OTHER WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC











000
FXUS61 KOKX 210856
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
356 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ON CHRISTMAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ZONES WILL ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED ALOFT AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. PCPN TYPE MAINLY SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT
ICE NUCLEI LIKELY PRESENT...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN
LONG ISLAND COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. PROBABLY A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW THERE...MAYBE EVEN MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE FORKS.
IN SHORT...TRACE TO HALF INCH OF SNOW CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER LONG
ISLAND...WITH UP TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS PARTS OF SE CT. MOST OF
THE REST OF THE CWA COULD GET A FLURRY OR TWO THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXIT EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST.
WILL GO WITH SCT FLURRIES OVER LI AND CT...AND PCPN TYPE OF
SPRINKLES ALSO PROBABLY PRESENT EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE
LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT RESERVED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. CHC POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...FOR
SOME NW SECTIONS...MODELS SHOWING A WARM NOSE ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR
A CHANCE OF SLEET DURING THE EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN
AS THE WARMEST PART OF THE NOSE EXCEEDS 3C AND SURFACE TEMPS HOVER
AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...BUT THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. ECMWF OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WETTER FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY
DRIER...AND THE NAM SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WILL
CAP POPS AT 50% AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE EARLY ON IN THE MORNING FOR THE FAR NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING NORTH OF US WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...SO BY CHRISTMAS MORNING...SHOWERS STILL LIKELY EARLY ON FOR
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. BY NOON...LIKELY DRY EVERYWHERE.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. LOOKS LIKE WE FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA HOWEVER. WILL NEED TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THE
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN WELL INTO THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE
WSW FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS COOLER
TEMPS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMALS. THEN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER
INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WILL DEPART EARLY IN THE WEEK.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT
TO VFR AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES POSSIBLE EAST
OF KNYC TERMINALS. VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR...OR EVEN IFR. MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

MVFR CIGS THEN RETURN ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.

LGT/VRB WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NW AT 5-7 KT...AND THEN WILL
BECOME LGT/VRB AGAIN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS. LGT/VRB WINDS.
.MON-MON NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.
.THU...SUB VFR EARLY IN SHOWERS...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS 20-25 KT G40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL
OTHER WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 210856
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
356 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ON CHRISTMAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ZONES WILL ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED ALOFT AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. PCPN TYPE MAINLY SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT
ICE NUCLEI LIKELY PRESENT...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN
LONG ISLAND COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. PROBABLY A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW THERE...MAYBE EVEN MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE FORKS.
IN SHORT...TRACE TO HALF INCH OF SNOW CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER LONG
ISLAND...WITH UP TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS PARTS OF SE CT. MOST OF
THE REST OF THE CWA COULD GET A FLURRY OR TWO THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXIT EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST.
WILL GO WITH SCT FLURRIES OVER LI AND CT...AND PCPN TYPE OF
SPRINKLES ALSO PROBABLY PRESENT EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE
LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT RESERVED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. CHC POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...FOR
SOME NW SECTIONS...MODELS SHOWING A WARM NOSE ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR
A CHANCE OF SLEET DURING THE EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN
AS THE WARMEST PART OF THE NOSE EXCEEDS 3C AND SURFACE TEMPS HOVER
AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...BUT THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. ECMWF OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WETTER FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY
DRIER...AND THE NAM SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WILL
CAP POPS AT 50% AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE EARLY ON IN THE MORNING FOR THE FAR NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING NORTH OF US WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...SO BY CHRISTMAS MORNING...SHOWERS STILL LIKELY EARLY ON FOR
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. BY NOON...LIKELY DRY EVERYWHERE.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. LOOKS LIKE WE FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA HOWEVER. WILL NEED TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THE
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN WELL INTO THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE
WSW FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS COOLER
TEMPS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMALS. THEN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER
INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WILL DEPART EARLY IN THE WEEK.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT
TO VFR AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES POSSIBLE EAST
OF KNYC TERMINALS. VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR...OR EVEN IFR. MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

MVFR CIGS THEN RETURN ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.

LGT/VRB WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NW AT 5-7 KT...AND THEN WILL
BECOME LGT/VRB AGAIN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS. LGT/VRB WINDS.
.MON-MON NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.
.THU...SUB VFR EARLY IN SHOWERS...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS 20-25 KT G40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL
OTHER WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC








000
FXUS61 KOKX 210533
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1233 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FLURRIES CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED OVER MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA. 00Z SOUNDING ONLY SHOWS SATURATION TO ABOUT
-10C. HOWEVER...PROXIMITY TO THE OCEAN AND THEREFORE SEA SALT MAY
ACT AS ICE NUCLEI...WHICH CAN FORM ICE CRYSTALS AT WARMER TEMPS.
THE ONLY AREA THAT MIGHT SEE SOME RAIN MIX IN IS THE TWIN FORKS
OF LONG ISLAND AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF NEW LONDON IN CT. MESOSCALE
MODELS SHOW THAT THE PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO FLURRIES.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A DUSTING OR COATING IN SOME
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS.

CLOUD COVER AND A NLY FLOW TODAY KEPT TEMPS IN CHECK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. THE LAST
DAY OF AUTUMN WILL FINISH AS ONE OF THE COLDEST. WINTER SOLSTICE
IS 603 PM SUNDAY EVENING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COLD AIR SUPPLY WITH LIGHT
NLY WINDS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A
STRONG INVERSION AT APPROXIMATELY 900 MB. THUS...LOOKING AT
CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
TOO FAST WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S WELL INLAND TO AROUND
30 AT THE COAST.

A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR SNOW FLURRIES OR VERY
LIGHT SNOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE
CT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST. THERE COULD ALSO
BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN AND/OR FREEZING RAIN WITH LACK A ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER. OFTEN THOUGH ALONG THE
COAST...SEA SALT CAN LOWER THE ACTIVATION TEMP OF ICE NUCLEI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MORNING FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL
CLEARING BY AFT AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. FAR
EASTERN LI AND SE CT COULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL DAY DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE BENEATH AN INVERSION.

HIGHS ON SUN WILL APPROACH 40 ALONG THE COAST,,,BUT A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INLAND. THIS COULD VARY BASED ON THE EXTENT OF CLEARING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH LOW-LEVEL NLY WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING SUN NIGHT.
LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 20S SUN NIGHT...BUT THE EXTENT OF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY...AND WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW
REMAINS WEAK AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA WEAKENS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS
MONDAY FRONT CENTRAL CANADA INTO MEXICO WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. DURING WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVE WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. SO WITH WEAK LIFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS NO
LONGER DEEPENING WITH COASTAL LOW AND KEEP THE LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AS THE PRIMARY LOW WITH THE NEGATIVE TROUGH. AS THE LOWS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET TO NEAR 70 KT DEVELOPS. WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITING MIXING STRONG GUSTY WIND WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIFT DURING WEDNESDAY AND PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. WARMING OCCURS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LIQUID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BEFORE
THAT...MONDAY NIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
INLAND...HOWEVER NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE THERMAL PROFILE
OF THE GFS WAS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE 20/00Z ECMWF AND USED A
BLEND FOR P-TYPE.

AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AFTER 05Z INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...PASSING JUST EAST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY. WITH TIMING CONSISTENCY HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND WITH CYCLONIC WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW...STRONG AND GUSTY WIND WILL BE LIKELY. HAVE KEPT
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW...HOWEVER GUSTS COULD BE CLOSE TO 45
KT AT TIMES THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THEN FOR
NEXT WEEKEND ANOTHER INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND DEPARTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KJFK IS MVFR...BUT THEY TOO
SHOULD BE DROPPING SHORTLY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSING OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE
MAINLY E OF NYC...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT VSBY AND CHC`S AREN/T
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH CIGS IN NYC METRO AT 12Z AND MVFR COULD
LINGER INTO THE AFTN. THEN CONDS EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO MVFR SUN
NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS AGREEMENT E OF NYC THAT MVFR CIGS REMAIN
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT AND VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT NLY WINDS COULD BACK
20-30 DEGREES MORE TO THE LEFT OF FORECAST DURING THE DAY
SUN...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB AGAIN SUN NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR.
.MON-MON NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.
.THU...SUB VFR EARLY IN SHOWERS...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS 20-25 KT G40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING NORTH OF THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY
1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 210533
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1233 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FLURRIES CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED OVER MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA. 00Z SOUNDING ONLY SHOWS SATURATION TO ABOUT
-10C. HOWEVER...PROXIMITY TO THE OCEAN AND THEREFORE SEA SALT MAY
ACT AS ICE NUCLEI...WHICH CAN FORM ICE CRYSTALS AT WARMER TEMPS.
THE ONLY AREA THAT MIGHT SEE SOME RAIN MIX IN IS THE TWIN FORKS
OF LONG ISLAND AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF NEW LONDON IN CT. MESOSCALE
MODELS SHOW THAT THE PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO FLURRIES.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A DUSTING OR COATING IN SOME
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS.

CLOUD COVER AND A NLY FLOW TODAY KEPT TEMPS IN CHECK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. THE LAST
DAY OF AUTUMN WILL FINISH AS ONE OF THE COLDEST. WINTER SOLSTICE
IS 603 PM SUNDAY EVENING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COLD AIR SUPPLY WITH LIGHT
NLY WINDS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A
STRONG INVERSION AT APPROXIMATELY 900 MB. THUS...LOOKING AT
CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
TOO FAST WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S WELL INLAND TO AROUND
30 AT THE COAST.

A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR SNOW FLURRIES OR VERY
LIGHT SNOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE
CT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST. THERE COULD ALSO
BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN AND/OR FREEZING RAIN WITH LACK A ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER. OFTEN THOUGH ALONG THE
COAST...SEA SALT CAN LOWER THE ACTIVATION TEMP OF ICE NUCLEI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MORNING FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL
CLEARING BY AFT AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. FAR
EASTERN LI AND SE CT COULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL DAY DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE BENEATH AN INVERSION.

HIGHS ON SUN WILL APPROACH 40 ALONG THE COAST,,,BUT A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INLAND. THIS COULD VARY BASED ON THE EXTENT OF CLEARING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH LOW-LEVEL NLY WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING SUN NIGHT.
LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 20S SUN NIGHT...BUT THE EXTENT OF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY...AND WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW
REMAINS WEAK AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA WEAKENS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS
MONDAY FRONT CENTRAL CANADA INTO MEXICO WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. DURING WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVE WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. SO WITH WEAK LIFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS NO
LONGER DEEPENING WITH COASTAL LOW AND KEEP THE LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AS THE PRIMARY LOW WITH THE NEGATIVE TROUGH. AS THE LOWS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET TO NEAR 70 KT DEVELOPS. WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITING MIXING STRONG GUSTY WIND WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIFT DURING WEDNESDAY AND PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. WARMING OCCURS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LIQUID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BEFORE
THAT...MONDAY NIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
INLAND...HOWEVER NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE THERMAL PROFILE
OF THE GFS WAS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE 20/00Z ECMWF AND USED A
BLEND FOR P-TYPE.

AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AFTER 05Z INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...PASSING JUST EAST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY. WITH TIMING CONSISTENCY HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND WITH CYCLONIC WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW...STRONG AND GUSTY WIND WILL BE LIKELY. HAVE KEPT
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW...HOWEVER GUSTS COULD BE CLOSE TO 45
KT AT TIMES THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THEN FOR
NEXT WEEKEND ANOTHER INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND DEPARTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KJFK IS MVFR...BUT THEY TOO
SHOULD BE DROPPING SHORTLY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSING OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE
MAINLY E OF NYC...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT VSBY AND CHC`S AREN/T
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH CIGS IN NYC METRO AT 12Z AND MVFR COULD
LINGER INTO THE AFTN. THEN CONDS EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO MVFR SUN
NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS AGREEMENT E OF NYC THAT MVFR CIGS REMAIN
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT AND VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT NLY WINDS COULD BACK
20-30 DEGREES MORE TO THE LEFT OF FORECAST DURING THE DAY
SUN...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB AGAIN SUN NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR.
.MON-MON NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.
.THU...SUB VFR EARLY IN SHOWERS...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS 20-25 KT G40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING NORTH OF THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY
1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW










000
FXUS61 KOKX 210247
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
947 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FLURRIES CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED OVER MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA. 00Z SOUNDING ONLY SHOWS SATURATION TO ABOUT
-10C. HOWEVER...PROXIMITY TO THE OCEAN AND THEREFORE SEA SALT MAY
ACT AS ICE NUCLEI...WHICH CAN FORM ICE CRYSTALS AT WARMER TEMPS.
THE ONLY AREA THAT MIGHT SEE SOME RAIN MIX IN IS THE TWIN FORKS
OF LONG ISLAND AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF NEW LONDON IN CT. MESOSCALE
MODELS SHOW THAT THE PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO FLURRIES.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A DUSTING OR COATING IN SOME
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS.

CLOUD COVER AND A NLY FLOW TODAY KEPT TEMPS IN CHECK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. THE LAST
DAY OF AUTUMN WILL FINISH AS ONE OF THE COLDEST. WINTER SOLSTICE
IS 603 PM SUNDAY EVENING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COLD AIR SUPPLY WITH LIGHT
NLY WINDS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A
STRONG INVERSION AT APPROXIMATELY 900 MB. THUS...LOOKING AT
CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
TOO FAST WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S WELL INLAND TO AROUND
30 AT THE COAST.

A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR SNOW FLURRIES OR VERY
LIGHT SNOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE
CT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST. THERE COULD ALSO
BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN AND/OR FREEZING RAIN WITH LACK A ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER. OFTEN THOUGH ALONG THE
COAST...SEA SALT CAN LOWER THE ACTIVATION TEMP OF ICE NUCLEI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL
CLEARING BY AFT AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. FAR
EASTERN LI AND SE CT COULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL DAY DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE BENEATH AN INVERSION.

HIGHS ON SUN WILL APPROACH 40 ALONG THE COAST,,,BUT A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INLAND. THIS COULD VARY BASED ON THE EXTENT OF CLEARING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH LOW-LEVEL NLY WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING SUN NIGHT.
LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 20S SUN NIGHT...BUT THE EXTENT OF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY...AND WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW
REMAINS WEAK AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA WEAKENS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS
MONDAY FRONT CENTRAL CANADA INTO MEXICO WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. DURING WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVE WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. SO WITH WEAK LIFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS NO
LONGER DEEPENING WITH COASTAL LOW AND KEEP THE LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AS THE PRIMARY LOW WITH THE NEGATIVE TROUGH. AS THE LOWS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET TO NEAR 70 KT DEVELOPS. WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITING MIXING STRONG GUSTY WIND WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIFT DURING WEDNESDAY AND PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. WARMING OCCURS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LIQUID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BEFORE
THAT...MONDAY NIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
INLAND...HOWEVER NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE THERMAL PROFILE
OF THE GFS WAS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE 20/00Z ECMWF AND USED A
BLEND FOR P-TYPE.

AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AFTER 05Z INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...PASSING JUST EAST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY. WITH TIMING CONSISTENCY HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND WITH CYCLONIC WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW...STRONG AND GUSTY WIND WILL BE LIKELY. HAVE KEPT
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW...HOWEVER GUSTS COULD BE CLOSE TO 45
KT AT TIMES THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THEN FOR
NEXT WEEKEND ANOTHER INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND DEPARTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

MAINLY MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2-3 KFT. NYC METRO TERMINALS ARE
BEGINNING TO DROP TO MVFR AND THINK THEY WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
2-3KFT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
MOVES ACROSS. LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR
KGON/KISP/KBDR TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT VSBY AND CHC`S
AREN`T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH CIGS IN NYC METRO AT 12Z AND MVFR COULD
LINGER INTO THE AFTN.

LIGHT AND VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT...THEN COULD BACK 20-30 DEGREES MORE
TO THE LEFT OF 00Z FORECAST DURING THE DAY SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR.
.MON-MON NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E WINDS 10-20
KT...BECOMING SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.
.THU...SUB VFR EARLY IN SHOWERS...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
20-25 KT G40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING NORTH OF THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY
1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW










000
FXUS61 KOKX 210010
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
710 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WERE OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT
AND EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY WITH JUST A DUSTING IN SOME LOCATIONS
OF CONNECTICUT...MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FORECAST ON TRACK.

CLOUD COVER AND A NLY FLOW TODAY KEPT TEMPS IN CHECK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. THE LAST
DAY OF AUTUMN WILL FINISH AS ONE OF THE COLDEST. WINTER SOLSTICE
IS 603 PM SUNDAY EVENING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COLD AIR SUPPLY WITH LIGHT
NLY WINDS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A
STRONG INVERSION AT APPROXIMATELY 900 MB. THUS...LOOKING AT
CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
TOO FAST WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S WELL INLAND TO AROUND
30 AT THE COAST.

A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR SNOW FLURRIES OR VERY
LIGHT SNOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE
CT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST. THERE COULD ALSO
BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN AND/OR FREEZING RAIN WITH LACK A ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER. OFTEN THOUGH ALONG THE
COAST...SEA SALT CAN LOWER THE ACTIVATION TEMP OF ICE NUCLEI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL
CLEARING BY AFT AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. FAR
EASTERN LI AND SE CT COULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL DAY DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE BENEATH AN INVERSION.

HIGHS ON SUN WILL APPROACH 40 ALONG THE COAST,,,BUT A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INLAND. THIS COULD VARY BASED ON THE EXTENT OF CLEARING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH LOW-LEVEL NLY WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING SUN NIGHT.
LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 20S SUN NIGHT...BUT THE EXTENT OF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY...AND WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW
REMAINS WEAK AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA WEAKENS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS
MONDAY FRONT CENTRAL CANADA INTO MEXICO WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. DURING WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVE WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. SO WITH WEAK LIFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS NO
LONGER DEEPENING WITH COASTAL LOW AND KEEP THE LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AS THE PRIMARY LOW WITH THE NEGATIVE TROUGH. AS THE LOWS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET TO NEAR 70 KT DEVELOPS. WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITING MIXING STRONG GUSTY WIND WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIFT DURING WEDNESDAY AND PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. WARMING OCCURS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LIQUID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BEFORE
THAT...MONDAY NIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
INLAND...HOWEVER NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE THERMAL PROFILE
OF THE GFS WAS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE 20/00Z ECMWF AND USED A
BLEND FOR P-TYPE.

AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AFTER 05Z INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...PASSING JUST EAST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY. WITH TIMING CONSISTENCY HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND WITH CYCLONIC WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW...STRONG AND GUSTY WIND WILL BE LIKELY. HAVE KEPT
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW...HOWEVER GUSTS COULD BE CLOSE TO 45
KT AT TIMES THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THEN FOR
NEXT WEEKEND ANOTHER INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND DEPARTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

MAINLY MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2-3 KFT. NYC METRO TERMINALS HAVE BEEN
HOLDING ON TO LOW END VFR CIGS LAST FEW HOURS...BUT ARE SURROUNDED
BY MVFR CIGS AND WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FEEL THEY
WILL DROP BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE
FOR KGON/KISP/KBDR TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT VSBY AND
CHC`S AREN`T HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN IN TAFS.

MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH CIGS IN NYC METRO AT 12Z AND MVFR COULD
LINGER INTO THE AFTN.

LIGHT AND VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT...THEN COULD BACK 20-30 DEGREES MORE
TO THE LEFT OF 00Z FORECAST DURING THE DAY SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR.
.MON-MON NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E WINDS 10-20
KT...BECOMING SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.
.THU...SUB VFR EARLY IN SHOWERS...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
20-25 KT G40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING NORTH OF THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY
1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW











000
FXUS61 KOKX 210010
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
710 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WERE OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT
AND EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY WITH JUST A DUSTING IN SOME LOCATIONS
OF CONNECTICUT...MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FORECAST ON TRACK.

CLOUD COVER AND A NLY FLOW TODAY KEPT TEMPS IN CHECK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. THE LAST
DAY OF AUTUMN WILL FINISH AS ONE OF THE COLDEST. WINTER SOLSTICE
IS 603 PM SUNDAY EVENING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COLD AIR SUPPLY WITH LIGHT
NLY WINDS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A
STRONG INVERSION AT APPROXIMATELY 900 MB. THUS...LOOKING AT
CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
TOO FAST WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S WELL INLAND TO AROUND
30 AT THE COAST.

A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR SNOW FLURRIES OR VERY
LIGHT SNOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE
CT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST. THERE COULD ALSO
BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN AND/OR FREEZING RAIN WITH LACK A ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER. OFTEN THOUGH ALONG THE
COAST...SEA SALT CAN LOWER THE ACTIVATION TEMP OF ICE NUCLEI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL
CLEARING BY AFT AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. FAR
EASTERN LI AND SE CT COULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL DAY DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE BENEATH AN INVERSION.

HIGHS ON SUN WILL APPROACH 40 ALONG THE COAST,,,BUT A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INLAND. THIS COULD VARY BASED ON THE EXTENT OF CLEARING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH LOW-LEVEL NLY WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING SUN NIGHT.
LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 20S SUN NIGHT...BUT THE EXTENT OF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY...AND WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW
REMAINS WEAK AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA WEAKENS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS
MONDAY FRONT CENTRAL CANADA INTO MEXICO WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. DURING WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVE WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. SO WITH WEAK LIFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS NO
LONGER DEEPENING WITH COASTAL LOW AND KEEP THE LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AS THE PRIMARY LOW WITH THE NEGATIVE TROUGH. AS THE LOWS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET TO NEAR 70 KT DEVELOPS. WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITING MIXING STRONG GUSTY WIND WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIFT DURING WEDNESDAY AND PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. WARMING OCCURS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LIQUID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BEFORE
THAT...MONDAY NIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
INLAND...HOWEVER NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE THERMAL PROFILE
OF THE GFS WAS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE 20/00Z ECMWF AND USED A
BLEND FOR P-TYPE.

AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AFTER 05Z INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...PASSING JUST EAST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY. WITH TIMING CONSISTENCY HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND WITH CYCLONIC WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW...STRONG AND GUSTY WIND WILL BE LIKELY. HAVE KEPT
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW...HOWEVER GUSTS COULD BE CLOSE TO 45
KT AT TIMES THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THEN FOR
NEXT WEEKEND ANOTHER INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND DEPARTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

MAINLY MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2-3 KFT. NYC METRO TERMINALS HAVE BEEN
HOLDING ON TO LOW END VFR CIGS LAST FEW HOURS...BUT ARE SURROUNDED
BY MVFR CIGS AND WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FEEL THEY
WILL DROP BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE
FOR KGON/KISP/KBDR TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT VSBY AND
CHC`S AREN`T HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN IN TAFS.

MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH CIGS IN NYC METRO AT 12Z AND MVFR COULD
LINGER INTO THE AFTN.

LIGHT AND VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT...THEN COULD BACK 20-30 DEGREES MORE
TO THE LEFT OF 00Z FORECAST DURING THE DAY SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR.
.MON-MON NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E WINDS 10-20
KT...BECOMING SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.
.THU...SUB VFR EARLY IN SHOWERS...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
20-25 KT G40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING NORTH OF THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY
1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW












000
FXUS61 KOKX 202056
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
356 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER AND A NLY FLOW TODAY KEPT TEMPS IN CHECK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. THE LAST
DAY OF AUTUMN WILL FINISH AS ONE OF THE COLDEST. WINTER SOLSTICE
IS 603 PM SUNDAY EVENING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COLD AIR SUPPLY WITH LIGHT
NLY WINDS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A
STRONG INVERSION AT APPROXIMATELY 900 MB. THUS...LOOKING AT
CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
TOO FAST WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S WELL INLAND TO AROUND
30 AT THE COAST.

A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR SNOW FLURRIES OR VERY
LIGHT SNOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE
CT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST. THERE COULD ALSO
BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN AND/OR FREEZING RAIN WITH LACK A ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER. OFTEN THOUGH ALONG THE
COAST...SEA SALT CAN LOWER THE ACTIVATION TEMP OF ICE NUCLEI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL
CLEARING BY AFT AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. FAR
EASTERN LI AND SE CT COULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL DAY DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE BENEATH AN INVERSION.

HIGHS ON SUN WILL APPROACH 40 ALONG THE COAST,,,BUT A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INLAND. THIS COULD VARY BASED ON THE EXTENT OF CLEARING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH LOW-LEVEL NLY WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING SUN NIGHT.
LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 20S SUN NIGHT...BUT THE EXTENT OF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY...AND WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW
REMAINS WEAK AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA WEAKENS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS
MONDAY FRONT CENTRAL CANADA INTO MEXICO WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. DURING WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVE WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. SO WITH WEAK LIFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS NO
LONGER DEEPENING WITH COASTAL LOW AND KEEP THE LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AS THE PRIMARY LOW WITH THE NEGATIVE TROUGH. AS THE LOWS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET TO NEAR 70 KT DEVELOPS. WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITING MIXING STRONG GUSTY WIND WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIFT DURING WEDNESDAY AND PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. WARMING OCCURS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LIQUID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BEFORE
THAT...MONDAY NIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
INLAND...HOWEVER NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE THERMAL PROFILE
OF THE GFS WAS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE 20/00Z ECMWF AND USED A
BLEND FOR P-TYPE.

AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AFTER 05Z INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...PASSING JUST EAST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY. WITH TIMING CONSISTENCY HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND WITH CYCLONIC WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW...STRONG AND GUSTY WIND WILL BE LIKELY. HAVE KEPT
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW...HOWEVER GUSTS COULD BE CLOSE TO 45
KT AT TIMES THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THEN FOR
NEXT WEEKEND ANOTHER INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND DEPARTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

MAINLY MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2-3 KFT. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF
VFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY NYC METRO. INCREASING
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MVFR CIGS 2-3 KFT TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
AND/OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR KGON/KISP/KBDR TONIGHT.

POSSIBLE RETURN TO PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS LATE SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NYC METRO.

NORTHERLY WINDS 5 KFT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CIGS...ALTHOUGH MVFR CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
.MON-MON NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E WINDS 10-20
KT...BECOMING SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.
.THU...SUB VFR EARLY IN SHOWERS...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
20-25 KT G40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING NORTH OF THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY
1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 201805 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
104 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ITS EFFECTS STILL FELT
ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MAY VERY WELL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE AUTUMN...IRONICALLY
ITS THE LAST DAY BEFORE THE WINTER SOLSTICE. A THICK LOW-CLOUD
DECK AND LIGHT NLY FLOW ARE KEEPING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. ONLY EXPECT A RISE OF ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 30 TO 35. THUS...BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST
TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF
FLURRIES THIS AFT.

OTHERWISE....HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY BY THIS EVE.

MODEL QPF OUTPUT ALSO INDICATES VERY LIGHT PCPN CHANCES OVER THE
FORKS REGION/SE CT TOWARDS SUNSET...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT...BUT VERY
LIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...WEAK LIFT...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS...WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A SHORTWAVE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. THEN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CHANCES OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SPREAD WEST WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASING PVA FROM THE WEST.
THINKING IS THAT PCPN TYPE WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER
DRIZZLE IN SPITE OF MOISTURE LACKING IN THE MID LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE
COLDEST TEMPS IN THE SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WOULD ALSO TEND TO FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
FLURRIES/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE...THEN NVA BEHIND IT AND DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGING LIKELY PREVENTS PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL LOW LEVEL
WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. POPS FOR TUESDAY MIGHT BE A
LITTLE TOO HIGH...BUT THEY ARE STILL REASONABLE...AND CURRENTLY DO
NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO LOWER POPS FROM THE CURRENT LOW-END
LIKELY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN
TYPE IS RAIN...EXCEPT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE MON NIGHT AND TUES
MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE ZONES. MIGHT NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH TUESDAY
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF US
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN JUST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE CITY. RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
ON THE MODERATE SIDE WITH MINOR URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE. FOR
THURSDAY...A STRONG FETCH OFF OF LAKE ERIE COULD BRING A RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER TO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. MARGINAL ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE WEDS AFTN THRU THURS. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE WSW
FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S
EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND DEPARTS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.

MAINLY MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2-3 KFT. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF
VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MVFR CIGS 2-3 KFT TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW AND/OR
FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR KGON/KISP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

POSSIBLE RETURN TO PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS LATE SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NYC METRO.

NORTHERLY WINDS 5 KFT OR SO THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CIGS...ALTHOUGH MVFR CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.
.WED NIGHT-THU...SUB VFR EARLY IN SHOWERS...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS 20-25 KT G40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH WINDS 10
KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON
THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF THE
WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AREA AND TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER CANADA ON THURSDAY...
ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN GALES ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KOKX 201805 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
104 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ITS EFFECTS STILL FELT
ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MAY VERY WELL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE AUTUMN...IRONICALLY
ITS THE LAST DAY BEFORE THE WINTER SOLSTICE. A THICK LOW-CLOUD
DECK AND LIGHT NLY FLOW ARE KEEPING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. ONLY EXPECT A RISE OF ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 30 TO 35. THUS...BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST
TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF
FLURRIES THIS AFT.

OTHERWISE....HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY BY THIS EVE.

MODEL QPF OUTPUT ALSO INDICATES VERY LIGHT PCPN CHANCES OVER THE
FORKS REGION/SE CT TOWARDS SUNSET...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT...BUT VERY
LIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...WEAK LIFT...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS...WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A SHORTWAVE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. THEN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CHANCES OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SPREAD WEST WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASING PVA FROM THE WEST.
THINKING IS THAT PCPN TYPE WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER
DRIZZLE IN SPITE OF MOISTURE LACKING IN THE MID LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE
COLDEST TEMPS IN THE SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WOULD ALSO TEND TO FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
FLURRIES/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE...THEN NVA BEHIND IT AND DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGING LIKELY PREVENTS PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL LOW LEVEL
WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. POPS FOR TUESDAY MIGHT BE A
LITTLE TOO HIGH...BUT THEY ARE STILL REASONABLE...AND CURRENTLY DO
NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO LOWER POPS FROM THE CURRENT LOW-END
LIKELY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN
TYPE IS RAIN...EXCEPT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE MON NIGHT AND TUES
MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE ZONES. MIGHT NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH TUESDAY
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF US
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN JUST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE CITY. RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
ON THE MODERATE SIDE WITH MINOR URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE. FOR
THURSDAY...A STRONG FETCH OFF OF LAKE ERIE COULD BRING A RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER TO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. MARGINAL ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE WEDS AFTN THRU THURS. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE WSW
FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S
EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND DEPARTS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.

MAINLY MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2-3 KFT. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF
VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MVFR CIGS 2-3 KFT TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW AND/OR
FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR KGON/KISP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

POSSIBLE RETURN TO PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS LATE SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NYC METRO.

NORTHERLY WINDS 5 KFT OR SO THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CIGS...ALTHOUGH MVFR CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.
.WED NIGHT-THU...SUB VFR EARLY IN SHOWERS...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS 20-25 KT G40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH WINDS 10
KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON
THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF THE
WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AREA AND TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER CANADA ON THURSDAY...
ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN GALES ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KOKX 201803
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
103 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ITS EFFECTS STILL FELT
ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MAY VERY WELL BE THE BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE AUTUMN...BEING
THE LAST DAY BEFORE THE WINTER SOLSTICE. A THICK LOW-CLOUD DECK
AND LIGHT NLY FLOW IS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
ONLY EXPECT A RISE OF ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 30 TO 35. THUS...BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST TEMPS DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF FLURRIES
THIS AFT.

OTHERWISE....HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS BUILDS INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY THIS EVE.

MODEL QPF OUTPUT ALSO INDICATES VERY LIGHT PCPN CHANCES OVER THE
FORKS REGION/SE CT TOWARDS SUNSET...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT...BUT VERY
LIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...WEAK LIFT...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS...WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A SHORTWAVE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. THEN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CHANCES OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SPREAD WEST WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASING PVA FROM THE WEST.
THINKING IS THAT PCPN TYPE WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER
DRIZZLE IN SPITE OF MOISTURE LACKING IN THE MID LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE
COLDEST TEMPS IN THE SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WOULD ALSO TEND TO FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
FLURRIES/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE...THEN NVA BEHIND IT AND DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGING LIKELY PREVENTS PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL LOW LEVEL
WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. POPS FOR TUESDAY MIGHT BE A
LITTLE TOO HIGH...BUT THEY ARE STILL REASONABLE...AND CURRENTLY DO
NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO LOWER POPS FROM THE CURRENT LOW-END
LIKELY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN
TYPE IS RAIN...EXCEPT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE MON NIGHT AND TUES
MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE ZONES. MIGHT NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH TUESDAY
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF US
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN JUST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE CITY. RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
ON THE MODERATE SIDE WITH MINOR URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE. FOR
THURSDAY...A STRONG FETCH OFF OF LAKE ERIE COULD BRING A RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER TO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. MARGINAL ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE WEDS AFTN THRU THURS. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE WSW
FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S
EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND DEPARTS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.

MAINLY MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2-3 KFT. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF
VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MVFR CIGS 2-3 KFT TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW AND/OR
FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR KGON/KISP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

POSSIBLE RETURN TO PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS LATE SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NYC METRO.

NORTHERLY WINDS 5 KFT OR SO THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CIGS...ALTHOUGH MVFR CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.
.WED NIGHT-THU...SUB VFR EARLY IN SHOWERS...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS 20-25 KT G40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH WINDS 10
KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON
THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF THE
WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AREA AND TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER CANADA ON THURSDAY...
ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN GALES ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KOKX 201509
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1009 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ITS EFFECTS STILL FELT
ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. THERE IS
A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS SW CT WHICH IS FILLING BACK IN.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST TOWARD MAINE. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AS
MOISTURE IS BEING TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG INVERSION NEAR
900MB. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE INCREASES
BELOW THIS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FORECAST. QPF OUTPUT ALSO INDICATES VERY LIGHT PCPN CHANCES
OVER THE FORKS REGION/SE CT TOWARDS SUNSET...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR
HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT...BUT VERY
LIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...WEAK LIFT...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS...WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A SHORTWAVE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. THEN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CHANCES OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SPREAD WEST WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASING PVA FROM THE WEST.
THINKING IS THAT PCPN TYPE WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER
DRIZZLE IN SPITE OF MOISTURE LACKING IN THE MID LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE
COLDEST TEMPS IN THE SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WOULD ALSO TEND TO FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
FLURRIES/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE...THEN NVA BEHIND IT AND DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGING LIKELY PREVENTS PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL LOW LEVEL
WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. POPS FOR TUESDAY MIGHT BE A
LITTLE TOO HIGH...BUT THEY ARE STILL REASONABLE...AND CURRENTLY DO
NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO LOWER POPS FROM THE CURRENT LOW-END
LIKELY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN
TYPE IS RAIN...EXCEPT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE MON NIGHT AND TUES
MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE ZONES. MIGHT NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH TUESDAY
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF US
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN JUST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE CITY. RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
ON THE MODERATE SIDE WITH MINOR URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE. FOR
THURSDAY...A STRONG FETCH OFF OF LAKE ERIE COULD BRING A RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER TO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. MARGINAL ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE WEDS AFTN THRU THURS. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE WSW
FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S
EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THIS WEEKEND AND DEPARTS
EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.

CIGS WILL VARY BETWEEN SCT-BKN 2500-3500 FT AS MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. BEST CHANCES FOR VFR CIGS WILL OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MVFR
CIGS 2500-3000 FT TONIGHT.

N TO NE WINDS AT 6-8 KT TODAY WILL BECOME LGT/VRB LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR KGON/KISP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS...WITH LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH WINDS 10
KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON
THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF THE
WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AREA AND TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER CANADA ON THURSDAY...
ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN GALES ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC








000
FXUS61 KOKX 201509
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1009 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ITS EFFECTS STILL FELT
ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. THERE IS
A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS SW CT WHICH IS FILLING BACK IN.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST TOWARD MAINE. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AS
MOISTURE IS BEING TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG INVERSION NEAR
900MB. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE INCREASES
BELOW THIS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FORECAST. QPF OUTPUT ALSO INDICATES VERY LIGHT PCPN CHANCES
OVER THE FORKS REGION/SE CT TOWARDS SUNSET...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR
HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT...BUT VERY
LIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...WEAK LIFT...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS...WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A SHORTWAVE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. THEN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CHANCES OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SPREAD WEST WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASING PVA FROM THE WEST.
THINKING IS THAT PCPN TYPE WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER
DRIZZLE IN SPITE OF MOISTURE LACKING IN THE MID LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE
COLDEST TEMPS IN THE SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WOULD ALSO TEND TO FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
FLURRIES/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE...THEN NVA BEHIND IT AND DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGING LIKELY PREVENTS PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL LOW LEVEL
WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. POPS FOR TUESDAY MIGHT BE A
LITTLE TOO HIGH...BUT THEY ARE STILL REASONABLE...AND CURRENTLY DO
NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO LOWER POPS FROM THE CURRENT LOW-END
LIKELY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN
TYPE IS RAIN...EXCEPT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE MON NIGHT AND TUES
MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE ZONES. MIGHT NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH TUESDAY
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF US
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN JUST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE CITY. RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
ON THE MODERATE SIDE WITH MINOR URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE. FOR
THURSDAY...A STRONG FETCH OFF OF LAKE ERIE COULD BRING A RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER TO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. MARGINAL ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE WEDS AFTN THRU THURS. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE WSW
FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S
EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THIS WEEKEND AND DEPARTS
EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.

CIGS WILL VARY BETWEEN SCT-BKN 2500-3500 FT AS MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. BEST CHANCES FOR VFR CIGS WILL OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MVFR
CIGS 2500-3000 FT TONIGHT.

N TO NE WINDS AT 6-8 KT TODAY WILL BECOME LGT/VRB LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR KGON/KISP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS...WITH LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH WINDS 10
KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON
THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF THE
WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AREA AND TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER CANADA ON THURSDAY...
ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN GALES ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 201108
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
608 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ITS EFFECTS STILL FELT
ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST TOWARD MAINE. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. SOME
MOISTURE IS BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 900MB...AND MODELS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE INCREASES BELOW THIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST. QPF
OUTPUT ALSO INDICATES VERY LIGHT PCPN CHANCES OVER THE FORKS
REGION/SE CT TOWARDS SUNSET...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE DAYTIME. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT...BUT VERY
LIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...WEAK LIFT...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS...WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A SHORTWAVE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. THEN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CHANCES OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SPREAD WEST WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASING PVA FROM THE WEST.
THINKING IS THAT PCPN TYPE WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER
DRIZZLE IN SPITE OF MOISTURE LACKING IN THE MID LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE
COLDEST TEMPS IN THE SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WOULD ALSO TEND TO FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
FLURRIES/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE...THEN NVA BEHIND IT AND DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGING LIKELY PREVENTS PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL LOW LEVEL
WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. POPS FOR TUESDAY MIGHT BE A
LITTLE TOO HIGH...BUT THEY ARE STILL REASONABLE...AND CURRENTLY DO
NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO LOWER POPS FROM THE CURRENT LOW-END
LIKELY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN
TYPE IS RAIN...EXCEPT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE MON NIGHT AND TUES
MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE ZONES. MIGHT NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH TUESDAY
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF US
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN JUST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE CITY. RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
ON THE MODERATE SIDE WITH MINOR URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE. FOR
THURSDAY...A STRONG FETCH OFF OF LAKE ERIE COULD BRING A RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER TO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. MARGINAL ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE WEDS AFTN THRU THURS. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE WSW
FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S
EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THIS WEEKEND AND DEPARTS EARLY
IN THE NEW WEEK.

CIGS WILL VARY BETWEEN SCT-BKN 2500-3500 FT AS MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. BEST CHANCES FOR VFR CIGS WILL OCCUR
FROM AROUND 15Z-22Z TODAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD BKN-
OVC MVFR CIGS 2500-3000 FT TONIGHT.

N TO NE WINDS AT 6-8 KT TODAY WILL BECOME LGT/VRB LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR KGON/KISP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS...WITH LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH WINDS 10
KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON
THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF THE
WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AREA AND TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER CANADA ON THURSDAY...
ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN GALES ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC











000
FXUS61 KOKX 201108
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
608 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ITS EFFECTS STILL FELT
ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST TOWARD MAINE. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. SOME
MOISTURE IS BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 900MB...AND MODELS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE INCREASES BELOW THIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST. QPF
OUTPUT ALSO INDICATES VERY LIGHT PCPN CHANCES OVER THE FORKS
REGION/SE CT TOWARDS SUNSET...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE DAYTIME. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT...BUT VERY
LIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...WEAK LIFT...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS...WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A SHORTWAVE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. THEN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CHANCES OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SPREAD WEST WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASING PVA FROM THE WEST.
THINKING IS THAT PCPN TYPE WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER
DRIZZLE IN SPITE OF MOISTURE LACKING IN THE MID LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE
COLDEST TEMPS IN THE SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WOULD ALSO TEND TO FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
FLURRIES/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE...THEN NVA BEHIND IT AND DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGING LIKELY PREVENTS PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL LOW LEVEL
WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. POPS FOR TUESDAY MIGHT BE A
LITTLE TOO HIGH...BUT THEY ARE STILL REASONABLE...AND CURRENTLY DO
NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO LOWER POPS FROM THE CURRENT LOW-END
LIKELY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN
TYPE IS RAIN...EXCEPT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE MON NIGHT AND TUES
MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE ZONES. MIGHT NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH TUESDAY
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF US
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN JUST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE CITY. RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
ON THE MODERATE SIDE WITH MINOR URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE. FOR
THURSDAY...A STRONG FETCH OFF OF LAKE ERIE COULD BRING A RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER TO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. MARGINAL ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE WEDS AFTN THRU THURS. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE WSW
FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S
EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THIS WEEKEND AND DEPARTS EARLY
IN THE NEW WEEK.

CIGS WILL VARY BETWEEN SCT-BKN 2500-3500 FT AS MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. BEST CHANCES FOR VFR CIGS WILL OCCUR
FROM AROUND 15Z-22Z TODAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD BKN-
OVC MVFR CIGS 2500-3000 FT TONIGHT.

N TO NE WINDS AT 6-8 KT TODAY WILL BECOME LGT/VRB LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR KGON/KISP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS...WITH LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH WINDS 10
KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON
THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF THE
WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AREA AND TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER CANADA ON THURSDAY...
ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN GALES ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC












000
FXUS61 KOKX 200840
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
340 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ITS EFFECTS STILL FELT
ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST TOWARD MAINE. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. SOME
MOISTURE IS BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 900MB...AND MODELS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE INCREASES BELOW THIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST. QPF
OUTPUT ALSO INDICATES VERY LIGHT PCPN CHANCES OVER THE FORKS
REGION/SE CT TOWARDS SUNSET...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE DAYTIME. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT...BUT VERY
LIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...WEAK LIFT...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS...WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A SHORTWAVE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL  MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES OVER LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. THEN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...CHANCES OF FLURRIES SPREAD WEST WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND INCREASING PVA FROM THE WEST. THINKING IS THAT PCPN
TYPE WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES OVER SPRINKLES IN SPITE OF MOISTURE
LACKING IN THE MID LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE SATURATED
LAYER BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ICE CRYSTALS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WOULD ALSO TEND TO FAVOR FLURRIES.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES...THEN NVA BEHIND IT AND DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING
LIKELY PREVENTS PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL LOW LEVEL
WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER... ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. POPS FOR TUESDAY MIGHT BE A
LITTLE TOO HIGH BUT THEY ARE STILL REASONABLE...AND CURRENTLY DO NOT
HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO LOWER POPS FROM THE CURRENT LOW-END LIKELY.
BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN TYPE
RAIN...EXCEPT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE MON NIGHT AND TUES MORNING
FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE ZONES. MIGHT NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH TUESDAY
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF US
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN JUST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE CITY. RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
ON THE MODERATE SIDE WITH MINOR URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE. FOR
THURSDAY A STRONG FETCH OFF OF LAKE ERIE COULD BRING A RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER TO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. MARGINAL ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE WEDS AFTN THRU THURS. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE WSW
FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S
EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.

CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN SCT-BKN 3000-3500 FT
THROUGH THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION.
EASTERN TERMINALS MAY SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING
BASED ON UPSTREAM DRYING SEEN ON SATELLITE...WHILE STRATUS MAY
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CITY AND WESTERN TERMINALS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE OF STRATUS THROUGH THIS MORNING.

INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD BKN MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING.

320-350 MAGNETIC WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTH AND DECREASE
EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT N-NE WINDS LESS THAN 8 KT DURING TH DAY
INTO EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.LATE TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FOR EASTERN TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS...WITH LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH WINDS 10
KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON
THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF THE
WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AREA AND TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER CANADA ON THURSDAY...
ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN GALES ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC








000
FXUS61 KOKX 200840
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
340 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ITS EFFECTS STILL FELT
ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST TOWARD MAINE. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. SOME
MOISTURE IS BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 900MB...AND MODELS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE INCREASES BELOW THIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST. QPF
OUTPUT ALSO INDICATES VERY LIGHT PCPN CHANCES OVER THE FORKS
REGION/SE CT TOWARDS SUNSET...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE DAYTIME. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT...BUT VERY
LIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...WEAK LIFT...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS...WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A SHORTWAVE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL  MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES OVER LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. THEN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...CHANCES OF FLURRIES SPREAD WEST WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND INCREASING PVA FROM THE WEST. THINKING IS THAT PCPN
TYPE WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES OVER SPRINKLES IN SPITE OF MOISTURE
LACKING IN THE MID LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE SATURATED
LAYER BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ICE CRYSTALS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WOULD ALSO TEND TO FAVOR FLURRIES.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES...THEN NVA BEHIND IT AND DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING
LIKELY PREVENTS PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL LOW LEVEL
WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER... ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. POPS FOR TUESDAY MIGHT BE A
LITTLE TOO HIGH BUT THEY ARE STILL REASONABLE...AND CURRENTLY DO NOT
HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO LOWER POPS FROM THE CURRENT LOW-END LIKELY.
BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN TYPE
RAIN...EXCEPT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE MON NIGHT AND TUES MORNING
FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE ZONES. MIGHT NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH TUESDAY
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF US
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN JUST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE CITY. RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
ON THE MODERATE SIDE WITH MINOR URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE. FOR
THURSDAY A STRONG FETCH OFF OF LAKE ERIE COULD BRING A RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER TO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. MARGINAL ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE WEDS AFTN THRU THURS. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE WSW
FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S
EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.

CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN SCT-BKN 3000-3500 FT
THROUGH THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION.
EASTERN TERMINALS MAY SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING
BASED ON UPSTREAM DRYING SEEN ON SATELLITE...WHILE STRATUS MAY
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CITY AND WESTERN TERMINALS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE OF STRATUS THROUGH THIS MORNING.

INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD BKN MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING.

320-350 MAGNETIC WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTH AND DECREASE
EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT N-NE WINDS LESS THAN 8 KT DURING TH DAY
INTO EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.LATE TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FOR EASTERN TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS...WITH LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH WINDS 10
KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON
THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF THE
WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AREA AND TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER CANADA ON THURSDAY...
ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN GALES ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 200531
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1231 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST BEING A WEAK COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MUCH
STRONGER SYSTEM THAT TRACKS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
00Z SOUNDING HAS STRONG INVERSION WITH BASE AROUND 880 MB AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH. LOTS OF STRATO CU AROUND
SCATTERED TO BROKEN...AND EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
BROKEN TO OVERCAST AS INVERSION REMAINS. STILL LEANING TOWARD THE
NAM FOR MOISTURE PROFILES.

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS FLOW VEERS MORE
NORTH NORTHEAST.

CONTINUE WITH THE CLOUDS AS NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEPENING OF
THE ISOTHERMAL LAYER. ALSO - WEAK INSOLATION WITH A 25 DEGREE SUN
ANGLE (WINTER SOLSTICE IS SUNDAY 603 PM).

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AS FLOW VEERS
MORE NORTHEAST AND UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. NWP HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN SOME VERY LIGHT PCPN OFF TO THE EAST. HAVE DROPPED
POPS IN FAVOR OF A CHC FLURRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HAVE AGAIN ADJUSTED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FROM MOS BASED ON EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A FAST PAC FLOW ACROSS
THE COUNTRY BRIEFLY BECOMING AMPLIFIED INTO A FULL LATITUDE TROF
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BY TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA IN THE MON-WED
TIMEFRAME BEFORE DRYING OUT ON THU. THERMO PROFILES ARE WARM ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN EVENTS. THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES SUN MORNING IN ASSOC WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF.

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA SUN INTO MON...AS A SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM SYSTEM FORMS ALONG
THE SE COAST AND TAKES A TRACK TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP WITH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THERE IS DECENT WARM
ADVECTION WITH COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE NE. EVEN SO...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS APPEAR TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR AN ALL RAIN EVENT. RAIN
DEVELOPS LATE MON AFT AND CONTINUES INTO TUE...GENERALLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH UP TO HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

THE SECOND LOW WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM AS STRONG PAC JET
ENERGY CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY BY TUE...SENDING A FRONTAL WAVE NE ACROSS THE TN AND OH
VALLEYS TUE INTO WED...EVENTUALLY WRAPPING UP INTO A DEEP LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED EVE. THERE HAS BEEN
A SLOWER TREND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO ONE
AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE OVER A 12
HOUR PERIOD. SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAZARDS.

IN COMPARISON TO RECENT MODEL RUNS...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
WED CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS WEAKER AND
DISPLACED FARTHER EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON SUN TO 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUE-WED WITH A DEEP-LAYERED SLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF. CONDITIONS RETURN BACK TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.

CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN SCT-BKN 3000-3500 FT
THROUGH THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION.
EASTERN TERMINALS MAY SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING BASED ON UPSTREAM DRYING SEEN ON SATELLITE...WHILE STRATUS
MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CITY AND WESTERN TERMINALS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE OF STRATUS THROUGH THIS MORNING.

INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD BKN MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING.

320-350 MAGNETIC WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTH AND DECREASE
EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT N-NE WINDS LESS THAN 8 KT DURING TH DAY
INTO EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.LATE TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FOR EASTERN TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS...WITH LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WIND REMAINS AROUND 15 KT WITH MINIMAL GUSTS A FEW KTS
HIGHER. THE WIND WAS SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AS HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH
WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH SATURDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON SUN. WINDS AND SEAS BUILD ON
MONDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA CONDS THEN LIKELY
FOLLOW MON NIGHT AND TUES AHEAD OF MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/DW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/DW











000
FXUS61 KOKX 200531
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1231 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST BEING A WEAK COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MUCH
STRONGER SYSTEM THAT TRACKS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
00Z SOUNDING HAS STRONG INVERSION WITH BASE AROUND 880 MB AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH. LOTS OF STRATO CU AROUND
SCATTERED TO BROKEN...AND EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
BROKEN TO OVERCAST AS INVERSION REMAINS. STILL LEANING TOWARD THE
NAM FOR MOISTURE PROFILES.

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS FLOW VEERS MORE
NORTH NORTHEAST.

CONTINUE WITH THE CLOUDS AS NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEPENING OF
THE ISOTHERMAL LAYER. ALSO - WEAK INSOLATION WITH A 25 DEGREE SUN
ANGLE (WINTER SOLSTICE IS SUNDAY 603 PM).

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AS FLOW VEERS
MORE NORTHEAST AND UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. NWP HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN SOME VERY LIGHT PCPN OFF TO THE EAST. HAVE DROPPED
POPS IN FAVOR OF A CHC FLURRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HAVE AGAIN ADJUSTED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FROM MOS BASED ON EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A FAST PAC FLOW ACROSS
THE COUNTRY BRIEFLY BECOMING AMPLIFIED INTO A FULL LATITUDE TROF
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BY TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA IN THE MON-WED
TIMEFRAME BEFORE DRYING OUT ON THU. THERMO PROFILES ARE WARM ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN EVENTS. THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES SUN MORNING IN ASSOC WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF.

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA SUN INTO MON...AS A SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM SYSTEM FORMS ALONG
THE SE COAST AND TAKES A TRACK TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP WITH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THERE IS DECENT WARM
ADVECTION WITH COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE NE. EVEN SO...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS APPEAR TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR AN ALL RAIN EVENT. RAIN
DEVELOPS LATE MON AFT AND CONTINUES INTO TUE...GENERALLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH UP TO HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

THE SECOND LOW WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM AS STRONG PAC JET
ENERGY CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY BY TUE...SENDING A FRONTAL WAVE NE ACROSS THE TN AND OH
VALLEYS TUE INTO WED...EVENTUALLY WRAPPING UP INTO A DEEP LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED EVE. THERE HAS BEEN
A SLOWER TREND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO ONE
AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE OVER A 12
HOUR PERIOD. SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAZARDS.

IN COMPARISON TO RECENT MODEL RUNS...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
WED CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS WEAKER AND
DISPLACED FARTHER EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON SUN TO 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUE-WED WITH A DEEP-LAYERED SLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF. CONDITIONS RETURN BACK TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.

CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN SCT-BKN 3000-3500 FT
THROUGH THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION.
EASTERN TERMINALS MAY SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING BASED ON UPSTREAM DRYING SEEN ON SATELLITE...WHILE STRATUS
MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CITY AND WESTERN TERMINALS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE OF STRATUS THROUGH THIS MORNING.

INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD BKN MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING.

320-350 MAGNETIC WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTH AND DECREASE
EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT N-NE WINDS LESS THAN 8 KT DURING TH DAY
INTO EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.LATE TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FOR EASTERN TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS...WITH LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WIND REMAINS AROUND 15 KT WITH MINIMAL GUSTS A FEW KTS
HIGHER. THE WIND WAS SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AS HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH
WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH SATURDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON SUN. WINDS AND SEAS BUILD ON
MONDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA CONDS THEN LIKELY
FOLLOW MON NIGHT AND TUES AHEAD OF MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/DW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/DW










000
FXUS61 KOKX 200243
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
943 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST BEING A WEAK COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MUCH
STRONGER SYSTEM THAT TRACKS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
00Z SOUNDING HAS STRONG INVERSION WITH BASE AROUND 880 MB AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH. LOTS OF STRATO CU AROUND
SCATTERED TO BROKEN...AND EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
BROKEN TO OVERCAST AS INVERSION REMAINS. STILL LEANING TOWARD THE
NAM FOR MOISTURE PROFILES.

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS FLOW VEERS MORE
NORTH NORTHEAST.

CONTINUE WITH THE CLOUDS AS NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEPENING OF
THE ISOTHERMAL LAYER. ALSO - WEAK INSOLATION WITH A 25 DEGREE SUN
ANGLE (WINTER SOLSTICE IS SUNDAY 603 PM).

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AS FLOW VEERS
MORE NORTHEAST AND UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. NWP HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN SOME VERY LIGHT PCPN OFF TO THE EAST. HAVE DROPPED
POPS IN FAVOR OF A CHC FLURRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HAVE AGAIN ADJUSTED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FROM MOS BASED ON EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A FAST PAC FLOW ACROSS
THE COUNTRY BRIEFLY BECOMING AMPLIFIED INTO A FULL LATITUDE TROF
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BY TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA IN THE MON-WED
TIMEFRAME BEFORE DRYING OUT ON THU. THERMO PROFILES ARE WARM ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN EVENTS. THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES SUN MORNING IN ASSOC WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF.

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA SUN INTO MON...AS A SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM SYSTEM FORMS ALONG
THE SE COAST AND TAKES A TRACK TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP WITH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THERE IS DECENT WARM
ADVECTION WITH COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE NE. EVEN SO...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS APPEAR TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR AN ALL RAIN EVENT. RAIN
DEVELOPS LATE MON AFT AND CONTINUES INTO TUE...GENERALLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH UP TO HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

THE SECOND LOW WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM AS STRONG PAC JET
ENERGY CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY BY TUE...SENDING A FRONTAL WAVE NE ACROSS THE TN AND OH
VALLEYS TUE INTO WED...EVENTUALLY WRAPPING UP INTO A DEEP LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED EVE. THERE HAS BEEN
A SLOWER TREND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO ONE
AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE OVER A 12
HOUR PERIOD. SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAZARDS.

IN COMPARISON TO RECENT MODEL RUNS...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
WED CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS WEAKER AND
DISPLACED FARTHER EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON SUN TO 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUE-WED WITH A DEEP-LAYERED SLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF. CONDITIONS RETURN BACK TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY.

CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN SCT-BKN 3000-3500 FT
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN
INVERSION. INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD BKN MVFR CIGS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

320-350 MAGNETIC WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTH AND DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT N-NE WINDS LESS THAN 8 KT ON SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FOR CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS...WITH LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WIND REMAINS AROUND 15 KT WITH MINIMAL GUSTS A FEW KTS
HIGHER. THE WIND WAS SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AS HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH
WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH SATURDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON SUN. WINDS AND SEAS BUILD ON
MONDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA CONDS THEN LIKELY
FOLLOW MON NIGHT AND TUES AHEAD OF MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/DW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/DW











000
FXUS61 KOKX 200243
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
943 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST BEING A WEAK COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MUCH
STRONGER SYSTEM THAT TRACKS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
00Z SOUNDING HAS STRONG INVERSION WITH BASE AROUND 880 MB AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH. LOTS OF STRATO CU AROUND
SCATTERED TO BROKEN...AND EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
BROKEN TO OVERCAST AS INVERSION REMAINS. STILL LEANING TOWARD THE
NAM FOR MOISTURE PROFILES.

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS FLOW VEERS MORE
NORTH NORTHEAST.

CONTINUE WITH THE CLOUDS AS NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEPENING OF
THE ISOTHERMAL LAYER. ALSO - WEAK INSOLATION WITH A 25 DEGREE SUN
ANGLE (WINTER SOLSTICE IS SUNDAY 603 PM).

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AS FLOW VEERS
MORE NORTHEAST AND UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. NWP HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN SOME VERY LIGHT PCPN OFF TO THE EAST. HAVE DROPPED
POPS IN FAVOR OF A CHC FLURRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HAVE AGAIN ADJUSTED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FROM MOS BASED ON EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A FAST PAC FLOW ACROSS
THE COUNTRY BRIEFLY BECOMING AMPLIFIED INTO A FULL LATITUDE TROF
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BY TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA IN THE MON-WED
TIMEFRAME BEFORE DRYING OUT ON THU. THERMO PROFILES ARE WARM ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN EVENTS. THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES SUN MORNING IN ASSOC WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF.

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA SUN INTO MON...AS A SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM SYSTEM FORMS ALONG
THE SE COAST AND TAKES A TRACK TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP WITH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THERE IS DECENT WARM
ADVECTION WITH COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE NE. EVEN SO...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS APPEAR TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR AN ALL RAIN EVENT. RAIN
DEVELOPS LATE MON AFT AND CONTINUES INTO TUE...GENERALLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH UP TO HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

THE SECOND LOW WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM AS STRONG PAC JET
ENERGY CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY BY TUE...SENDING A FRONTAL WAVE NE ACROSS THE TN AND OH
VALLEYS TUE INTO WED...EVENTUALLY WRAPPING UP INTO A DEEP LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED EVE. THERE HAS BEEN
A SLOWER TREND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO ONE
AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE OVER A 12
HOUR PERIOD. SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAZARDS.

IN COMPARISON TO RECENT MODEL RUNS...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
WED CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS WEAKER AND
DISPLACED FARTHER EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON SUN TO 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUE-WED WITH A DEEP-LAYERED SLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF. CONDITIONS RETURN BACK TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY.

CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN SCT-BKN 3000-3500 FT
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN
INVERSION. INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD BKN MVFR CIGS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

320-350 MAGNETIC WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTH AND DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT N-NE WINDS LESS THAN 8 KT ON SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FOR CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS...WITH LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WIND REMAINS AROUND 15 KT WITH MINIMAL GUSTS A FEW KTS
HIGHER. THE WIND WAS SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AS HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH
WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH SATURDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON SUN. WINDS AND SEAS BUILD ON
MONDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA CONDS THEN LIKELY
FOLLOW MON NIGHT AND TUES AHEAD OF MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/DW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/DW










000
FXUS61 KOKX 192355
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
655 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST BEING A WEAK COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MUCH
STRONGER SYSTEM THAT TRACKS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SKY COVER FCST HAS TO BEEN MORE THAN CHALLENGING THE PAST TWO
DAYS AS MOISTURE (NOT TO MENTION TODAY`S THE GRAVITY WAVE) IN THE
INVERSION BASED AROUND 900 HPA.

LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE CLOUDS...STRATO
CU...FILLING IN ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUD COVER FCST WAS BASED ON
NAM LOW LEVEL RH - WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE I
COULD FIND. THUS GOING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. NOTE THE
NARRE- TL SAYS IS SHOULD BE CLEAR AND IS CONSISTENTLY FAILING IN
THIS PATTERN DUE TO UNDERDONE RH IN THE RAP.

TEMPS WERE ADJUST UP ABOVE MOS BASED ON THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

EVENING HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD A COUPLE OF
DEGREES AS NORTHWEST WIND REMAINS 5 TO 10 KT AND CLOUD COVER
MOSTLY BROKEN ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER 03Z AS WIND SUBSIDES
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN A MORE RAPID AND STEADY FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS FLOW VEERS MORE
NORTH NORTHEAST.

CONTINUE WITH THE CLOUDS AS NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEPENING OF
THE ISOTHERMAL LAYER. ALSO - WEAK INSOLATION WITH A 25 DEGREE SUN
ANGLE (WINTER SOLSTICE IS SUNDAY 603 PM).

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AS FLOW VEERS
MORE NORTHEAST AND UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. NWP HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN SOME VERY LIGHT PCPN OFF TO THE EAST. HAVE DROPPED
POPS IN FAVOR OF A CHC FLURRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HAVE AGAIN ADJUSTED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FROM MOS BASED ON EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A FAST PAC FLOW ACROSS
THE COUNTRY BRIEFLY BECOMING AMPLIFIED INTO A FULL LATITUDE TROF
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BY TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA IN THE MON-WED
TIMEFRAME BEFORE DRYING OUT ON THU. THERMO PROFILES ARE WARM ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN EVENTS. THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES SUN MORNING IN ASSOC WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF.

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA SUN INTO MON...AS A SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM SYSTEM FORMS ALONG
THE SE COAST AND TAKES A TRACK TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP WITH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THERE IS DECENT WARM
ADVECTION WITH COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE NE. EVEN SO...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS APPEAR TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR AN ALL RAIN EVENT. RAIN
DEVELOPS LATE MON AFT AND CONTINUES INTO TUE...GENERALLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH UP TO HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

THE SECOND LOW WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM AS STRONG PAC JET
ENERGY CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY BY TUE...SENDING A FRONTAL WAVE NE ACROSS THE TN AND OH
VALLEYS TUE INTO WED...EVENTUALLY WRAPPING UP INTO A DEEP LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED EVE. THERE HAS BEEN
A SLOWER TREND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO ONE
AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE OVER A 12
HOUR PERIOD. SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAZARDS.

IN COMPARISON TO RECENT MODEL RUNS...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
WED CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS WEAKER AND
DISPLACED FARTHER EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON SUN TO 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUE-WED WITH A DEEP-LAYERED SLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF. CONDITIONS RETURN BACK TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY.

CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN SCT-BKN 3000-3500 FT
THROUGH 06Z AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. INCREASING
CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY
CITY AND COASTAL TERMINALS.

320-350 MAGNETIC WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FOR NYC/NJ
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING...VEERING TO THE NORTH AND
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. LIGHT N-NE WINDS LESS THAN 8 KT ON SATURDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING MVFR CIG
FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS LIKELY
VARYING FROM SCT-BKN 030-035. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING MVFR CIG
FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS LIKELY
VARYING FROM SCT-BKN 030-035. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING MVFR CIG
FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS LIKELY
VARYING FROM SCT-BKN 030-035. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING MVFR CIG
FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS LIKELY
VARYING FROM SCT-BKN 030-035. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING MVFR CIG
FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS LIKELY
VARYING FROM SCT-BKN 025-035. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING MVFR CIG
FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS LIKELY
VARYING FROM SCT-BKN 030-035. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FOR CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS...WITH LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING NORTHWEST WIND REMAINS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE AT AT TIME
AT BUOY 44065 APPROACHING 25 KT AT TIMES. THE WIND BEGINS TO
SUBSIDE AFTER 03Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN.
ALSO...WITH THE STRONGER WIND SEAS ON THE OCEAN RUNNING 1/2 TO 1
FOOT HIGHER THAN FORECAST AND WERE RAISED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
SATURDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON SUN. WINDS AND SEAS BUILD ON
MONDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA CONDS THEN LIKELY
FOLLOW MON NIGHT AND TUES AHEAD OF MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MET/TONGUE/DW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/DW










000
FXUS61 KOKX 192355
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
655 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST BEING A WEAK COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MUCH
STRONGER SYSTEM THAT TRACKS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SKY COVER FCST HAS TO BEEN MORE THAN CHALLENGING THE PAST TWO
DAYS AS MOISTURE (NOT TO MENTION TODAY`S THE GRAVITY WAVE) IN THE
INVERSION BASED AROUND 900 HPA.

LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE CLOUDS...STRATO
CU...FILLING IN ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUD COVER FCST WAS BASED ON
NAM LOW LEVEL RH - WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE I
COULD FIND. THUS GOING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. NOTE THE
NARRE- TL SAYS IS SHOULD BE CLEAR AND IS CONSISTENTLY FAILING IN
THIS PATTERN DUE TO UNDERDONE RH IN THE RAP.

TEMPS WERE ADJUST UP ABOVE MOS BASED ON THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

EVENING HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD A COUPLE OF
DEGREES AS NORTHWEST WIND REMAINS 5 TO 10 KT AND CLOUD COVER
MOSTLY BROKEN ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER 03Z AS WIND SUBSIDES
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN A MORE RAPID AND STEADY FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS FLOW VEERS MORE
NORTH NORTHEAST.

CONTINUE WITH THE CLOUDS AS NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEPENING OF
THE ISOTHERMAL LAYER. ALSO - WEAK INSOLATION WITH A 25 DEGREE SUN
ANGLE (WINTER SOLSTICE IS SUNDAY 603 PM).

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AS FLOW VEERS
MORE NORTHEAST AND UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. NWP HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN SOME VERY LIGHT PCPN OFF TO THE EAST. HAVE DROPPED
POPS IN FAVOR OF A CHC FLURRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HAVE AGAIN ADJUSTED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FROM MOS BASED ON EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A FAST PAC FLOW ACROSS
THE COUNTRY BRIEFLY BECOMING AMPLIFIED INTO A FULL LATITUDE TROF
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BY TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA IN THE MON-WED
TIMEFRAME BEFORE DRYING OUT ON THU. THERMO PROFILES ARE WARM ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN EVENTS. THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES SUN MORNING IN ASSOC WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF.

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA SUN INTO MON...AS A SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM SYSTEM FORMS ALONG
THE SE COAST AND TAKES A TRACK TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP WITH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THERE IS DECENT WARM
ADVECTION WITH COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE NE. EVEN SO...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS APPEAR TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR AN ALL RAIN EVENT. RAIN
DEVELOPS LATE MON AFT AND CONTINUES INTO TUE...GENERALLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH UP TO HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

THE SECOND LOW WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM AS STRONG PAC JET
ENERGY CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY BY TUE...SENDING A FRONTAL WAVE NE ACROSS THE TN AND OH
VALLEYS TUE INTO WED...EVENTUALLY WRAPPING UP INTO A DEEP LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED EVE. THERE HAS BEEN
A SLOWER TREND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO ONE
AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE OVER A 12
HOUR PERIOD. SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAZARDS.

IN COMPARISON TO RECENT MODEL RUNS...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
WED CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS WEAKER AND
DISPLACED FARTHER EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON SUN TO 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUE-WED WITH A DEEP-LAYERED SLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF. CONDITIONS RETURN BACK TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY.

CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN SCT-BKN 3000-3500 FT
THROUGH 06Z AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. INCREASING
CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY
CITY AND COASTAL TERMINALS.

320-350 MAGNETIC WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FOR NYC/NJ
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING...VEERING TO THE NORTH AND
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. LIGHT N-NE WINDS LESS THAN 8 KT ON SATURDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING MVFR CIG
FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS LIKELY
VARYING FROM SCT-BKN 030-035. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING MVFR CIG
FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS LIKELY
VARYING FROM SCT-BKN 030-035. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING MVFR CIG
FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS LIKELY
VARYING FROM SCT-BKN 030-035. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING MVFR CIG
FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS LIKELY
VARYING FROM SCT-BKN 030-035. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING MVFR CIG
FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS LIKELY
VARYING FROM SCT-BKN 025-035. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING MVFR CIG
FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS LIKELY
VARYING FROM SCT-BKN 030-035. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FOR CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS...WITH LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING NORTHWEST WIND REMAINS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE AT AT TIME
AT BUOY 44065 APPROACHING 25 KT AT TIMES. THE WIND BEGINS TO
SUBSIDE AFTER 03Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN.
ALSO...WITH THE STRONGER WIND SEAS ON THE OCEAN RUNNING 1/2 TO 1
FOOT HIGHER THAN FORECAST AND WERE RAISED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
SATURDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON SUN. WINDS AND SEAS BUILD ON
MONDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA CONDS THEN LIKELY
FOLLOW MON NIGHT AND TUES AHEAD OF MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MET/TONGUE/DW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/DW











000
FXUS61 KOKX 192055
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
355 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST BEING A WEAK COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MUCH
STRONGER SYSTEM THAT TRACKS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SKY COVER FCST HAS TO BEEN MORE THAN CHALLENGING THE PAST TWO
DAYS AS MOISTURE (NOT TO MENTION TODAY`S THE GRAVITY WAVE) IN THE
INVERSION BASED AROUND 900 HPA.

LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUD COVER IS FILLING BACK IN IN
THE WAKE OF THE GRAVITY WAVE. HAVE BASED CLOUD COVER FCST ON NAM
LOW LEVEL RH - WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE I
COULD FIND. THUS GOING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. NOTE THE NARRE-
TL SAYS IS SHOULD BE CLEAR AND IS CONSISTENTLY FAILING IN THIS
PATTERN DUE TO UNDERDONE RH IN THE RAP.

TEMPS WERE ADJUST UP ABOVE MOS BASED ON THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS FLOW VEERS MORE
NORTH NORTHEAST.

CONTINUE WITH THE CLOUDS AS NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEPENING OF
THE ISOTHERMAL LAYER. ALSO - WEAK INSOLATION WITH A 25 DEGREE SUN
ANGLE (WINTER SOLSTICE IS SUNDAY 603 PM).

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AS FLOW VEERS
MORE NORTHEAST AND UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. NWP HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN SOME VERY LIGHT PCPN OFF TO THE EAST. HAVE DROPPED
POPS IN FAVOR OF A CHC FLURRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HAVE AGAIN ADJUSTED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FROM MOS BASED ON EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A FAST PAC FLOW ACROSS
THE COUNTRY BRIEFLY BECOMING AMPLIFIED INTO A FULL LATITUDE TROF
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BY TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA IN THE MON-WED
TIMEFRAME BEFORE DRYING OUT ON THU. THERMO PROFILES ARE WARM ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN EVENTS. THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES SUN MORNING IN ASSOC WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF.

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA SUN INTO MON...AS A SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM SYSTEM FORMS ALONG
THE SE COAST AND TAKES A TRACK TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP WITH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THERE IS DECENT WARM
ADVECTION WITH COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE NE. EVEN SO...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS APPEAR TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR AN ALL RAIN EVENT. RAIN
DEVELOPS LATE MON AFT AND CONTINUES INTO TUE...GENERALLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH UP TO HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

THE SECOND LOW WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM AS STRONG PAC JET
ENERGY CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY BY TUE...SENDING A FRONTAL WAVE NE ACROSS THE TN AND OH
VALLEYS TUE INTO WED...EVENTUALLY WRAPPING UP INTO A DEEP LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED EVE. THERE HAS BEEN
A SLOWER TREND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO ONE
AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE OVER A 12
HOUR PERIOD. SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAZARDS.

IN COMPARISON TO RECENT MODEL RUNS...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
WED CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS WEAKER AND
DISPLACED FARTHER EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON SUN TO 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUE-WED WITH A DEEP-LAYERED SLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF. CONDITIONS RETURN BACK TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z SAT. VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS MAINLY 030-040FT UNTIL
22Z. LOW CHC OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT KISP. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCED MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

WINDS 320-350 DEGREES MAGNETIC AT SPEEDS OF 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO
ARND 20KT UNTIL 22Z THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND DECREASING TO LESS THAN
10 KT OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY...EXPECT LIGHT N-NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
TIMING OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
TIMING OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
TIMING OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
TIMING OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
TIMING OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
TIMING OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
SATURDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON SUN. WINDS AND SEAS BUILD ON
MONDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA CONDS THEN LIKELY
FOLLOW MON NIGHT AND TUES AHEAD OF MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/DW
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...TONGUE/DW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/DW










000
FXUS61 KOKX 192055
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
355 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST BEING A WEAK COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MUCH
STRONGER SYSTEM THAT TRACKS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SKY COVER FCST HAS TO BEEN MORE THAN CHALLENGING THE PAST TWO
DAYS AS MOISTURE (NOT TO MENTION TODAY`S THE GRAVITY WAVE) IN THE
INVERSION BASED AROUND 900 HPA.

LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUD COVER IS FILLING BACK IN IN
THE WAKE OF THE GRAVITY WAVE. HAVE BASED CLOUD COVER FCST ON NAM
LOW LEVEL RH - WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE I
COULD FIND. THUS GOING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. NOTE THE NARRE-
TL SAYS IS SHOULD BE CLEAR AND IS CONSISTENTLY FAILING IN THIS
PATTERN DUE TO UNDERDONE RH IN THE RAP.

TEMPS WERE ADJUST UP ABOVE MOS BASED ON THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS FLOW VEERS MORE
NORTH NORTHEAST.

CONTINUE WITH THE CLOUDS AS NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEPENING OF
THE ISOTHERMAL LAYER. ALSO - WEAK INSOLATION WITH A 25 DEGREE SUN
ANGLE (WINTER SOLSTICE IS SUNDAY 603 PM).

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AS FLOW VEERS
MORE NORTHEAST AND UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. NWP HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN SOME VERY LIGHT PCPN OFF TO THE EAST. HAVE DROPPED
POPS IN FAVOR OF A CHC FLURRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HAVE AGAIN ADJUSTED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FROM MOS BASED ON EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A FAST PAC FLOW ACROSS
THE COUNTRY BRIEFLY BECOMING AMPLIFIED INTO A FULL LATITUDE TROF
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BY TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA IN THE MON-WED
TIMEFRAME BEFORE DRYING OUT ON THU. THERMO PROFILES ARE WARM ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN EVENTS. THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES SUN MORNING IN ASSOC WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF.

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA SUN INTO MON...AS A SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM SYSTEM FORMS ALONG
THE SE COAST AND TAKES A TRACK TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP WITH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THERE IS DECENT WARM
ADVECTION WITH COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE NE. EVEN SO...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS APPEAR TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR AN ALL RAIN EVENT. RAIN
DEVELOPS LATE MON AFT AND CONTINUES INTO TUE...GENERALLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH UP TO HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

THE SECOND LOW WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM AS STRONG PAC JET
ENERGY CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY BY TUE...SENDING A FRONTAL WAVE NE ACROSS THE TN AND OH
VALLEYS TUE INTO WED...EVENTUALLY WRAPPING UP INTO A DEEP LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED EVE. THERE HAS BEEN
A SLOWER TREND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO ONE
AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE OVER A 12
HOUR PERIOD. SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAZARDS.

IN COMPARISON TO RECENT MODEL RUNS...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
WED CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS WEAKER AND
DISPLACED FARTHER EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON SUN TO 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUE-WED WITH A DEEP-LAYERED SLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF. CONDITIONS RETURN BACK TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z SAT. VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS MAINLY 030-040FT UNTIL
22Z. LOW CHC OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT KISP. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCED MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

WINDS 320-350 DEGREES MAGNETIC AT SPEEDS OF 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO
ARND 20KT UNTIL 22Z THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND DECREASING TO LESS THAN
10 KT OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY...EXPECT LIGHT N-NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
TIMING OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
TIMING OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
TIMING OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
TIMING OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
TIMING OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
TIMING OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
SATURDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON SUN. WINDS AND SEAS BUILD ON
MONDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA CONDS THEN LIKELY
FOLLOW MON NIGHT AND TUES AHEAD OF MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/DW
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...TONGUE/DW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/DW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 191731
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1231 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CHASING STRATUS/STRATI-CU. GRAVITY WAVE FEATURE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE SOUTHWEST AT A 70 DEGREE ANGLE INTO THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

MOST SUNNY SKIES WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN LONG ISLAND AND NEW YORK
CITY. SENT A "NOW" FOR THIS.

THINKING THAT CLOUDS RETURN IN WAKE OF THE SUBSIDENCE OF THE
GRAVITY WAVE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SSW.

WITH A 25 DEGREE SUN ANGLE (WINTER SOLSTICE IS SUNDAY 603 PM) AND
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER - HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO THOSE OF THE
LATEST LAMP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE STRATUS...THUS LOW
TEMPS MAY ONCE AGAIN BE OFF BY 5 DEGREES OR MORE. BASED ON 12Z
NAM...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...THUS HAVE TRENDED
TEMPS UP.

OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION...WINDS WILL FURTHER LOWER.

FOR SATURDAY...SAME SCENARIO HERE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
BUILD IN. THIS DAY WILL FEATURE LOWER MAX TEMPS THOUGH BECAUSE OF
LIMITED VERTICAL MIXING AND CLOUDS. THE WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT N-NE FLOW...HELPING TO ADVECT IN SOME COOLER
AIR. MAX TEMPS AGAIN WERE A BLEND OF GMOS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND UP TO
3-4 DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE COAST THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF MAINE SAT NIGHT SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FROM
OFF THE WATERS. DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
SHALLOW...SUPPORTING ONLY LIGHT/VERY LIGHT PCPN. SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. MID LEVELS WILL PROBABLY BE DRY WITH
A LACK OF ICE NUCLEI. THERE IS HOWEVER A CHANCE THAT THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURE IN THE SATURATED LAYER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS FOR LIGHT SNOW. WOULD BE MORE
CONFIDENT FOR SNOW AS A PCPN TYPE IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS MORE
VEERED TO THE EAST (SEA SALT AS NUCLEI)...BUT IN ANY CASE...OVERALL
CHANCES OF PCPN ARE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH A MIX OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS.

MID LEVELS MOISTEN SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH...SO FREEZING RAIN IS PROBABLY OUT OF THE EQUATION BY THIS
TIME. SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN THEREFORE FOR SUNDAY.

POPS INCREASE MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND
PUSHES NORTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS THERMAL PROFILES
BECOME TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING ELSE. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH THE MONDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
LEADING UP IT...BUT THEY WILL BE ENE FOR SOME TIME AND TIDES WILL BE
ON THE HIGHER SIDE ASTRONOMICALLY AS THERE IS A NEW MOON ON SUNDAY.

FOR TUES AND WEDS...A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SECONDARY LOW CENTER FORMS BEFORE PASSING NEARBY WEDS
EVENING. THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT. HAVE CAPPED POPS
AT 50% FOR TUES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE
WEAKENING INITIAL LOW THAT HAD BEEN APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINA
COAST. MORE CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL DURING WEDS AS THE SECONDARY LOW
CENTER OF THE STRONGER STORM SYSTEM PASSES NEARBY.

MINOR STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING WEDS/WEDS EVENING. STILL A
LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION ENHANCING THE RAINFALL AS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A
DECENT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING THROUGH SOME TIME ON WEDS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
SOME AREAS.

RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT PCPN WILL BE OVER BY CHRISTMAS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW...LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NW ZONES. NEAR-WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD
STILL BE MET. TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS MOSTLY 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z SAT. LOW END
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS MAINLY 030-040FT UNTIL
22Z. LOW CHC OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT KISP. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOSITURE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCED MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

WINDS 320-350 DEGREES MAGNETIC AT SPEEDS OF 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO
ARND 20KT UNTIL 22Z THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND DECREASING TO LESS THAN
10 KT OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY...EXPECT LIGHT N-NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
TIMING OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
TIMING OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
TIMING OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
TIMING OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
TIMING OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
TIMING OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSSIBLE. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
SATURDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES RACES TO THE NORTHERN
LATITUDES...A STEADY DECREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OCCUR AND SURFACE
WINDS DECREASE IN RESPONSE.

OVERALL...SUB SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS
AND SEAS BUILD ON MONDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA
CONDS THEN LIKELY FOLLOW MON NIGHT AND TUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
OF PCPN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WEDNESDAY/WEDS NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION. MINOR STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JM/TONGUE
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JM/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 191731
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1231 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CHASING STRATUS/STRATI-CU. GRAVITY WAVE FEATURE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE SOUTHWEST AT A 70 DEGREE ANGLE INTO THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

MOST SUNNY SKIES WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN LONG ISLAND AND NEW YORK
CITY. SENT A "NOW" FOR THIS.

THINKING THAT CLOUDS RETURN IN WAKE OF THE SUBSIDENCE OF THE
GRAVITY WAVE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SSW.

WITH A 25 DEGREE SUN ANGLE (WINTER SOLSTICE IS SUNDAY 603 PM) AND
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER - HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO THOSE OF THE
LATEST LAMP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE STRATUS...THUS LOW
TEMPS MAY ONCE AGAIN BE OFF BY 5 DEGREES OR MORE. BASED ON 12Z
NAM...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...THUS HAVE TRENDED
TEMPS UP.

OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION...WINDS WILL FURTHER LOWER.

FOR SATURDAY...SAME SCENARIO HERE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
BUILD IN. THIS DAY WILL FEATURE LOWER MAX TEMPS THOUGH BECAUSE OF
LIMITED VERTICAL MIXING AND CLOUDS. THE WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT N-NE FLOW...HELPING TO ADVECT IN SOME COOLER
AIR. MAX TEMPS AGAIN WERE A BLEND OF GMOS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND UP TO
3-4 DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE COAST THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF MAINE SAT NIGHT SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FROM
OFF THE WATERS. DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
SHALLOW...SUPPORTING ONLY LIGHT/VERY LIGHT PCPN. SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. MID LEVELS WILL PROBABLY BE DRY WITH
A LACK OF ICE NUCLEI. THERE IS HOWEVER A CHANCE THAT THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURE IN THE SATURATED LAYER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS FOR LIGHT SNOW. WOULD BE MORE
CONFIDENT FOR SNOW AS A PCPN TYPE IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS MORE
VEERED TO THE EAST (SEA SALT AS NUCLEI)...BUT IN ANY CASE...OVERALL
CHANCES OF PCPN ARE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH A MIX OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS.

MID LEVELS MOISTEN SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH...SO FREEZING RAIN IS PROBABLY OUT OF THE EQUATION BY THIS
TIME. SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN THEREFORE FOR SUNDAY.

POPS INCREASE MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND
PUSHES NORTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS THERMAL PROFILES
BECOME TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING ELSE. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH THE MONDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
LEADING UP IT...BUT THEY WILL BE ENE FOR SOME TIME AND TIDES WILL BE
ON THE HIGHER SIDE ASTRONOMICALLY AS THERE IS A NEW MOON ON SUNDAY.

FOR TUES AND WEDS...A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SECONDARY LOW CENTER FORMS BEFORE PASSING NEARBY WEDS
EVENING. THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT. HAVE CAPPED POPS
AT 50% FOR TUES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE
WEAKENING INITIAL LOW THAT HAD BEEN APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINA
COAST. MORE CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL DURING WEDS AS THE SECONDARY LOW
CENTER OF THE STRONGER STORM SYSTEM PASSES NEARBY.

MINOR STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING WEDS/WEDS EVENING. STILL A
LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION ENHANCING THE RAINFALL AS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A
DECENT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING THROUGH SOME TIME ON WEDS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
SOME AREAS.

RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT PCPN WILL BE OVER BY CHRISTMAS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW...LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NW ZONES. NEAR-WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD
STILL BE MET. TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS MOSTLY 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z SAT. LOW END
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS MAINLY 030-040FT UNTIL
22Z. LOW CHC OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT KISP. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOSITURE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCED MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

WINDS 320-350 DEGREES MAGNETIC AT SPEEDS OF 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO
ARND 20KT UNTIL 22Z THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND DECREASING TO LESS THAN
10 KT OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY...EXPECT LIGHT N-NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
TIMING OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
TIMING OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
TIMING OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
TIMING OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
TIMING OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
TIMING OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSSIBLE. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
SATURDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES RACES TO THE NORTHERN
LATITUDES...A STEADY DECREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OCCUR AND SURFACE
WINDS DECREASE IN RESPONSE.

OVERALL...SUB SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS
AND SEAS BUILD ON MONDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA
CONDS THEN LIKELY FOLLOW MON NIGHT AND TUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
OF PCPN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WEDNESDAY/WEDS NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION. MINOR STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JM/TONGUE
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JM/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM







000
FXUS61 KOKX 191451
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
951 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER DAY OF CHASING STRATUS/STRATO-CU. THERE`S A FEATURE OVER
THE KHVN TO KOXC AS OF 1415Z THAT IS ADVECTING SOUTH SOUTHWEST.
THERE`S ANOTHER EAST OF MONTAUK. ONLY GUESS IS THESE ARE SOME
SORT OF GRAVITY WAVES TRAPPED IN THE DUCKING INVERSION.

USUAL NEAR TERM CLOUD GUIDANCE TOOLS SUGGEST A SUNNY AFTERNOON.
THE NAM12 06Z RUN THOUGH SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT`S
OCCURRING CURRENTLY. HAVE THUS KEPT CLOUD COVER IN (AS WAS
PREVIOUSLY FCST).

WITH A 25 DEGREE SUN ANGLE (WINTER SOLSTICE IS SUNDAY 603 PM) AND
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER - HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO THOSE OF THE
LATEST LAMP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE STRATUS...THUS LOW TEMPS
MAY ONCE AGAIN BE OFF BY 5 DEGREES OR MORE (HIGHER THAN FCST). BASED
ON 06Z NAM...IT APPEARS AT LEAST EASTERN SECTIONS WILL CLEAR AND
HAVE NOT CHANGE FCST AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION...WINDS WILL FURTHER LOWER. THEREFORE...THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING DEPENDS ON CLOUD COVERAGE...WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. FOR NOW...A BLEND OF GMOS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IS
USED....WHICH IS REMARKABLY LOWER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 20S TO NEAR 30.

FOR SATURDAY...SAME SCENARIO HERE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
BUILD IN. THIS DAY WILL FEATURE LOWER MAX TEMPS THOUGH BECAUSE OF
LIMITED VERTICAL MIXING. THE WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT N-NE FLOW...HELPING TO ADVECT IN SOME COOLER
AIR. MAX TEMPS AGAIN WERE A BLEND OF GMOS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND UP TO
3-4 DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE COAST THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF MAINE SAT NIGHT SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FROM
OFF THE WATERS. DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
SHALLOW...SUPPORTING ONLY LIGHT/VERY LIGHT PCPN. SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. MID LEVELS WILL PROBABLY BE DRY WITH
A LACK OF ICE NUCLEI. THERE IS HOWEVER A CHANCE THAT THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURE IN THE SATURATED LAYER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS FOR LIGHT SNOW. WOULD BE MORE
CONFIDENT FOR SNOW AS A PCPN TYPE IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS MORE
VEERED TO THE EAST (SEA SALT AS NUCLEI)...BUT IN ANY CASE...OVERALL
CHANCES OF PCPN ARE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH A MIX OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS.

MID LEVELS MOISTEN SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH...SO FREEZING RAIN IS PROBABLY OUT OF THE EQUATION BY THIS
TIME. SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN THEREFORE FOR SUNDAY.

POPS INCREASE MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND
PUSHES NORTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS THERMAL PROFILES
BECOME TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING ELSE. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH THE MONDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
LEADING UP IT...BUT THEY WILL BE ENE FOR SOME TIME AND TIDES WILL BE
ON THE HIGHER SIDE ASTRONOMICALLY AS THERE IS A NEW MOON ON SUNDAY.

FOR TUES AND WEDS...A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SECONDARY LOW CENTER FORMS BEFORE PASSING NEARBY WEDS
EVENING. THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT. HAVE CAPPED POPS
AT 50% FOR TUES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE
WEAKENING INITIAL LOW THAT HAD BEEN APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINA
COAST. MORE CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL DURING WEDS AS THE SECONDARY LOW
CENTER OF THE STRONGER STORM SYSTEM PASSES NEARBY.

MINOR STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING WEDS/WEDS EVENING. STILL A
LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION ENHANCING THE RAINFALL AS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A
DECENT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING THROUGH SOME TIME ON WEDS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
SOME AREAS.

RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT PCPN WILL BE OVER BY CHRISTMAS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW...LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NW ZONES. NEAR-WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD
STILL BE MET. TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS MOSTLY 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TOWARD THE REGION BY 12Z SAT.

TODAY...CIGS 030-040FT UNTIL 22Z. LOW CHC OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS UNTIL 15Z.
WINDS 310-350 DEGREES MAGNETIC AT SPEEDS OF 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND
20KT UNTIL 22Z.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH WINDS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KT.

SATURDAY...VFR WITH CIGS ABV 030FT DEVELOPING AFT 18Z. LIGHT N-NE
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT...VFR CIGS POSSIBLY MVFR. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. SLIGHT CHC OF AM SNOW/PM RAIN.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
SATURDAY. FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING...A STEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE WEST AND LOW NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...ANY 25 KT GUSTS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE OCCASIONAL WITH MOST GUSTS BELOW 25 KT. THE
LOW RACES TO THE NORTHERN LATITUDES DURING THE DAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A STEADY DECREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW AND SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE IN RESPONSE.

OVERALL...MAINLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS
AND SEAS BUILD ON MONDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA
CONDS THEN LIKELY FOLLOW MON NIGHT AND TUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
OF PCPN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WEDNESDAY/WEDS NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION. MINOR STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JM/TONGUE
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JM/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM









000
FXUS61 KOKX 191451
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
951 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER DAY OF CHASING STRATUS/STRATO-CU. THERE`S A FEATURE OVER
THE KHVN TO KOXC AS OF 1415Z THAT IS ADVECTING SOUTH SOUTHWEST.
THERE`S ANOTHER EAST OF MONTAUK. ONLY GUESS IS THESE ARE SOME
SORT OF GRAVITY WAVES TRAPPED IN THE DUCKING INVERSION.

USUAL NEAR TERM CLOUD GUIDANCE TOOLS SUGGEST A SUNNY AFTERNOON.
THE NAM12 06Z RUN THOUGH SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT`S
OCCURRING CURRENTLY. HAVE THUS KEPT CLOUD COVER IN (AS WAS
PREVIOUSLY FCST).

WITH A 25 DEGREE SUN ANGLE (WINTER SOLSTICE IS SUNDAY 603 PM) AND
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER - HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO THOSE OF THE
LATEST LAMP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE STRATUS...THUS LOW TEMPS
MAY ONCE AGAIN BE OFF BY 5 DEGREES OR MORE (HIGHER THAN FCST). BASED
ON 06Z NAM...IT APPEARS AT LEAST EASTERN SECTIONS WILL CLEAR AND
HAVE NOT CHANGE FCST AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION...WINDS WILL FURTHER LOWER. THEREFORE...THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING DEPENDS ON CLOUD COVERAGE...WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. FOR NOW...A BLEND OF GMOS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IS
USED....WHICH IS REMARKABLY LOWER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 20S TO NEAR 30.

FOR SATURDAY...SAME SCENARIO HERE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
BUILD IN. THIS DAY WILL FEATURE LOWER MAX TEMPS THOUGH BECAUSE OF
LIMITED VERTICAL MIXING. THE WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT N-NE FLOW...HELPING TO ADVECT IN SOME COOLER
AIR. MAX TEMPS AGAIN WERE A BLEND OF GMOS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND UP TO
3-4 DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE COAST THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF MAINE SAT NIGHT SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FROM
OFF THE WATERS. DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
SHALLOW...SUPPORTING ONLY LIGHT/VERY LIGHT PCPN. SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. MID LEVELS WILL PROBABLY BE DRY WITH
A LACK OF ICE NUCLEI. THERE IS HOWEVER A CHANCE THAT THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURE IN THE SATURATED LAYER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS FOR LIGHT SNOW. WOULD BE MORE
CONFIDENT FOR SNOW AS A PCPN TYPE IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS MORE
VEERED TO THE EAST (SEA SALT AS NUCLEI)...BUT IN ANY CASE...OVERALL
CHANCES OF PCPN ARE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH A MIX OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS.

MID LEVELS MOISTEN SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH...SO FREEZING RAIN IS PROBABLY OUT OF THE EQUATION BY THIS
TIME. SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN THEREFORE FOR SUNDAY.

POPS INCREASE MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND
PUSHES NORTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS THERMAL PROFILES
BECOME TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING ELSE. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH THE MONDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
LEADING UP IT...BUT THEY WILL BE ENE FOR SOME TIME AND TIDES WILL BE
ON THE HIGHER SIDE ASTRONOMICALLY AS THERE IS A NEW MOON ON SUNDAY.

FOR TUES AND WEDS...A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SECONDARY LOW CENTER FORMS BEFORE PASSING NEARBY WEDS
EVENING. THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT. HAVE CAPPED POPS
AT 50% FOR TUES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE
WEAKENING INITIAL LOW THAT HAD BEEN APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINA
COAST. MORE CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL DURING WEDS AS THE SECONDARY LOW
CENTER OF THE STRONGER STORM SYSTEM PASSES NEARBY.

MINOR STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING WEDS/WEDS EVENING. STILL A
LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION ENHANCING THE RAINFALL AS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A
DECENT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING THROUGH SOME TIME ON WEDS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
SOME AREAS.

RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT PCPN WILL BE OVER BY CHRISTMAS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW...LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NW ZONES. NEAR-WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD
STILL BE MET. TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS MOSTLY 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TOWARD THE REGION BY 12Z SAT.

TODAY...CIGS 030-040FT UNTIL 22Z. LOW CHC OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS UNTIL 15Z.
WINDS 310-350 DEGREES MAGNETIC AT SPEEDS OF 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND
20KT UNTIL 22Z.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH WINDS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KT.

SATURDAY...VFR WITH CIGS ABV 030FT DEVELOPING AFT 18Z. LIGHT N-NE
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT...VFR CIGS POSSIBLY MVFR. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. SLIGHT CHC OF AM SNOW/PM RAIN.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
SATURDAY. FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING...A STEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE WEST AND LOW NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...ANY 25 KT GUSTS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE OCCASIONAL WITH MOST GUSTS BELOW 25 KT. THE
LOW RACES TO THE NORTHERN LATITUDES DURING THE DAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A STEADY DECREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW AND SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE IN RESPONSE.

OVERALL...MAINLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS
AND SEAS BUILD ON MONDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA
CONDS THEN LIKELY FOLLOW MON NIGHT AND TUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
OF PCPN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WEDNESDAY/WEDS NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION. MINOR STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JM/TONGUE
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JM/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM










000
FXUS61 KOKX 191151
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
651 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASED THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES RUNNING
A FEW DEGREES TOO LOW. INCREASED THE MAX TEMPS BY ONE DEGREE AND
INCREASED SLIGHTLY WITH WIND GUSTS ON LAND. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK.

WITH LOW PRESSURE EXITING WELL UP INTO NORTHERN LATITUDES...THE
LOCAL REGION WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY
AND RIDGING ALOFT. THERE WILL BE LESSENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LOWERING IN RESPONSE.

ONE MAIN FACTOR WITH THE FORECAST IS THE CURRENT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS WEAKENS THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. IF IT WEAKENS...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE MORE AND ALLOW
FOR MORE SUN AND IT IF HOLDS...A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS IN STORE.
FROM MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND OBSERVATIONS...IT SEEMS LIKE THIS
INVERSION IS PRETTY STRONG AND PROBABLY WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING AND START TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...EXPECTING AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN MUCH OF THE DAY.

MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE LOWER CLOUDS BEING
EXPERIENCED IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS SO FAR SO A MANUAL ADJUSTMENT
UPWARD WAS MADE TO MODEL CLOUD COVERAGE WITHIN THE FORECAST
DATABASE FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...A DOWNWARD TREND WAS CONVEYED GOING
INTO THE EVENING WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING CLOSER TO
THE LOCAL REGION.

FOR MAX TEMPS...USED A BLEND OF GMOS AND MAV GUIDANCE. THE MAV
GUIDANCE HAD RELATIVELY LESS ERROR COMPARED TO MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES THE PREVIOUS DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND HOW MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THERE WILL BE.
OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION...WINDS WILL FURTHER LOWER. THEREFORE...THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE DEPENDENT MAINLY ON THE CLOUD COVERAGE. WENT WITH
SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVERAGE AND AS A RESULT OF THAT USED A BLEND
OF GMOS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. THIS PRESENTS LOWS A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER BUT STILL...THESE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE REMARKABLY
LOWER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S TO NEAR 30.

FOR SATURDAY...SAME SCENARIO HERE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
BUILD IN. THIS DAY WILL FEATURE LOWER MAX TEMPS THOUGH BECAUSE OF
LIMITED VERTICAL MIXING. THE WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT N-NE FLOW...HELPING TO ADVECT IN SOME COOLER
AIR. MAX TEMPS AGAIN WERE A BLEND OF GMOS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND UP TO
3-4 DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE COAST THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF MAINE SAT NIGHT SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FROM
OFF THE WATERS. DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
SHALLOW...SUPPORTING ONLY LIGHT/VERY LIGHT PCPN. SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. MID LEVELS WILL PROBABLY BE DRY WITH
A LACK OF ICE NUCLEI. THERE IS HOWEVER A CHANCE THAT THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURE IN THE SATURATED LAYER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS FOR LIGHT SNOW. WOULD BE MORE
CONFIDENT FOR SNOW AS A PCPN TYPE IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS MORE
VEERED TO THE EAST (SEA SALT AS NUCLEI)...BUT IN ANY CASE...OVERALL
CHANCES OF PCPN ARE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH A MIX OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS.

MID LEVELS MOISTEN SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH...SO FREEZING RAIN IS PROBABLY OUT OF THE EQUATION BY THIS
TIME. SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN THEREFORE FOR SUNDAY.

POPS INCREASE MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND
PUSHES NORTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS THERMAL PROFILES
BECOME TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING ELSE. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH THE MONDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
LEADING UP IT...BUT THEY WILL BE ENE FOR SOME TIME AND TIDES WILL BE
ON THE HIGHER SIDE ASTRONOMICALLY AS THERE IS A NEW MOON ON SUNDAY.

FOR TUES AND WEDS...A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SECONDARY LOW CENTER FORMS BEFORE PASSING NEARBY WEDS
EVENING. THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT. HAVE CAPPED POPS
AT 50% FOR TUES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE
WEAKENING INITIAL LOW THAT HAD BEEN APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINA
COAST. MORE CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL DURING WEDS AS THE SECONDARY LOW
CENTER OF THE STRONGER STORM SYSTEM PASSES NEARBY.

MINOR STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING WEDS/WEDS EVENING. STILL A
LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION ENHANCING THE RAINFALL AS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A
DECENT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING THROUGH SOME TIME ON WEDS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
SOME AREAS.

RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT PCPN WILL BE OVER BY CHRISTMAS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW...LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NW ZONES. NEAR-WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD
STILL BE MET. TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS MOSTLY 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TOWARD THE REGION BY 12Z SAT.

TODAY...CIGS 030-040FT UNTIL 22Z. LOW CHC OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS UNTIL 15Z.
WINDS 310-350 DEGREES MAGNETIC AT SPEEDS OF 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND
20KT UNTIL 22Z.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH WINDS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KT.

SATURDAY...VFR WITH CIGS ABV 030FT DEVELOPING AFT 18Z. LIGHT N-NE
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT...VFR CIGS POSSIBLY MVFR. LIGHT EAST WINDS. SLIGHT CHC
OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN.
.SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS. LIGHT EAST WINDS. SLIGHT CHC OF AM SNOW/PM RAIN.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO W LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR THIS MORNING...A STEEP ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE WEST AND LOW NEAR
NEWFOUNDLAND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...ANY 25KT
GUSTS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE OCCASIONAL WITH MOST GUSTS BELOW 25
KT. THE LOW RACES TO THE NORTHERN LATITUDES DURING THE DAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A STEADY DECREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW AND SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE IN RESPONSE.

OVERALL...MAINLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS
AND SEAS BUILD ON MONDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA
CONDS THEN LIKELY FOLLOW MON NIGHT AND TUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
OF PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WEDNESDAY/WEDS NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION. MINOR STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM










000
FXUS61 KOKX 191151
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
651 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASED THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES RUNNING
A FEW DEGREES TOO LOW. INCREASED THE MAX TEMPS BY ONE DEGREE AND
INCREASED SLIGHTLY WITH WIND GUSTS ON LAND. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK.

WITH LOW PRESSURE EXITING WELL UP INTO NORTHERN LATITUDES...THE
LOCAL REGION WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY
AND RIDGING ALOFT. THERE WILL BE LESSENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LOWERING IN RESPONSE.

ONE MAIN FACTOR WITH THE FORECAST IS THE CURRENT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS WEAKENS THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. IF IT WEAKENS...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE MORE AND ALLOW
FOR MORE SUN AND IT IF HOLDS...A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS IN STORE.
FROM MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND OBSERVATIONS...IT SEEMS LIKE THIS
INVERSION IS PRETTY STRONG AND PROBABLY WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING AND START TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...EXPECTING AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN MUCH OF THE DAY.

MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE LOWER CLOUDS BEING
EXPERIENCED IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS SO FAR SO A MANUAL ADJUSTMENT
UPWARD WAS MADE TO MODEL CLOUD COVERAGE WITHIN THE FORECAST
DATABASE FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...A DOWNWARD TREND WAS CONVEYED GOING
INTO THE EVENING WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING CLOSER TO
THE LOCAL REGION.

FOR MAX TEMPS...USED A BLEND OF GMOS AND MAV GUIDANCE. THE MAV
GUIDANCE HAD RELATIVELY LESS ERROR COMPARED TO MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES THE PREVIOUS DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND HOW MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THERE WILL BE.
OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION...WINDS WILL FURTHER LOWER. THEREFORE...THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE DEPENDENT MAINLY ON THE CLOUD COVERAGE. WENT WITH
SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVERAGE AND AS A RESULT OF THAT USED A BLEND
OF GMOS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. THIS PRESENTS LOWS A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER BUT STILL...THESE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE REMARKABLY
LOWER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S TO NEAR 30.

FOR SATURDAY...SAME SCENARIO HERE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
BUILD IN. THIS DAY WILL FEATURE LOWER MAX TEMPS THOUGH BECAUSE OF
LIMITED VERTICAL MIXING. THE WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT N-NE FLOW...HELPING TO ADVECT IN SOME COOLER
AIR. MAX TEMPS AGAIN WERE A BLEND OF GMOS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND UP TO
3-4 DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE COAST THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF MAINE SAT NIGHT SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FROM
OFF THE WATERS. DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
SHALLOW...SUPPORTING ONLY LIGHT/VERY LIGHT PCPN. SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. MID LEVELS WILL PROBABLY BE DRY WITH
A LACK OF ICE NUCLEI. THERE IS HOWEVER A CHANCE THAT THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURE IN THE SATURATED LAYER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS FOR LIGHT SNOW. WOULD BE MORE
CONFIDENT FOR SNOW AS A PCPN TYPE IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS MORE
VEERED TO THE EAST (SEA SALT AS NUCLEI)...BUT IN ANY CASE...OVERALL
CHANCES OF PCPN ARE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH A MIX OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS.

MID LEVELS MOISTEN SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH...SO FREEZING RAIN IS PROBABLY OUT OF THE EQUATION BY THIS
TIME. SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN THEREFORE FOR SUNDAY.

POPS INCREASE MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND
PUSHES NORTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS THERMAL PROFILES
BECOME TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING ELSE. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH THE MONDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
LEADING UP IT...BUT THEY WILL BE ENE FOR SOME TIME AND TIDES WILL BE
ON THE HIGHER SIDE ASTRONOMICALLY AS THERE IS A NEW MOON ON SUNDAY.

FOR TUES AND WEDS...A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SECONDARY LOW CENTER FORMS BEFORE PASSING NEARBY WEDS
EVENING. THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT. HAVE CAPPED POPS
AT 50% FOR TUES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE
WEAKENING INITIAL LOW THAT HAD BEEN APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINA
COAST. MORE CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL DURING WEDS AS THE SECONDARY LOW
CENTER OF THE STRONGER STORM SYSTEM PASSES NEARBY.

MINOR STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING WEDS/WEDS EVENING. STILL A
LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION ENHANCING THE RAINFALL AS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A
DECENT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING THROUGH SOME TIME ON WEDS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
SOME AREAS.

RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT PCPN WILL BE OVER BY CHRISTMAS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW...LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NW ZONES. NEAR-WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD
STILL BE MET. TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS MOSTLY 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TOWARD THE REGION BY 12Z SAT.

TODAY...CIGS 030-040FT UNTIL 22Z. LOW CHC OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS UNTIL 15Z.
WINDS 310-350 DEGREES MAGNETIC AT SPEEDS OF 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND
20KT UNTIL 22Z.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH WINDS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KT.

SATURDAY...VFR WITH CIGS ABV 030FT DEVELOPING AFT 18Z. LIGHT N-NE
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT...VFR CIGS POSSIBLY MVFR. LIGHT EAST WINDS. SLIGHT CHC
OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN.
.SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS. LIGHT EAST WINDS. SLIGHT CHC OF AM SNOW/PM RAIN.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO W LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR THIS MORNING...A STEEP ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE WEST AND LOW NEAR
NEWFOUNDLAND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...ANY 25KT
GUSTS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE OCCASIONAL WITH MOST GUSTS BELOW 25
KT. THE LOW RACES TO THE NORTHERN LATITUDES DURING THE DAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A STEADY DECREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW AND SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE IN RESPONSE.

OVERALL...MAINLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS
AND SEAS BUILD ON MONDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA
CONDS THEN LIKELY FOLLOW MON NIGHT AND TUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
OF PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WEDNESDAY/WEDS NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION. MINOR STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM









000
FXUS61 KOKX 190919 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
417 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH LOW PRESSURE EXITING WELL UP INTO NORTHERN LATITUDES...THE
LOCAL REGION WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY
AND RIDGING ALOFT. THERE WILL LESSENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS LOWERING IN RESPONSE.

ONE MAIN FACTOR WITH THE FORECAST IS THE CURRENT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS WEAKENS THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. IF IT WEAKENS...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE MORE AND ALLOW
FOR MORE SUN AND IT IF HOLDS...A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS IN STORE.

MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE LOWER CLOUDS BEING
EXPERIENCED IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS SO FAR SO A MANUAL ADJUSTMENT
UPWARD WAS MADE TO MODEL CLOUD COVERAGE WITHIN THE FORECAST
DATABASE FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...A DOWNWARD TREND WAS CONVEYED GOING
INTO THE EVENING WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING CLOSER TO
THE LOCAL REGION.

FOR MAX TEMPS...USED A BLEND OF GMOS AND MAV GUIDANCE. THE MAV
GUIDANCE HAD RELATIVELY LESS ERROR COMPARED TO MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES THE PREVIOUS DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND HOW MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THERE WILL BE.
OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION...WINDS WILL FURTHER LOWER. THEREFORE...THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE DEPENDENT MAINLY ON THE CLOUD COVERAGE. WENT WITH
SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVERAGE AND AS A RESULT OF THAT USED A BLEND
OF GMOS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. THIS PRESENTS LOWS A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER BUT STILL...THESE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE REMARKABLY
LOWER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S TO NEAR 30.

FOR SATURDAY...SAME SCENARIO HERE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
BUILD IN. THIS DAY WILL FEATURE LOWER MAX TEMPS THOUGH BECAUSE OF
LIMITED VERTICAL MIXING. THE WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT N-NE FLOW...HELPING TO ADVECT IN SOME COOLER
AIR. MAX TEMPS AGAIN WERE A BLEND OF GMOS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND UP TO
3-4 DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE COAST THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF MAINE SAT NIGHT SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FROM
OFF THE WATERS. DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
SHALLOW...SUPPORTING ONLY LIGHT/VERY LIGHT PCPN. SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. MID LEVELS WILL PROBABLY BE DRY WITH
A LACK OF ICE NUCLEI. THERE IS HOWEVER A CHANCE THAT THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURE IN THE SATURATED LAYER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS FOR LIGHT SNOW. WOULD BE MORE
CONFIDENT FOR SNOW AS A PCPN TYPE IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS MORE
VEERED TO THE EAST (SEA SALT AS NUCLEI)...BUT IN ANY CASE...OVERALL
CHANCES OF PCPN ARE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH A MIX OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS.

MID LEVELS MOISTEN SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH...SO FREEZING RAIN IS PROBABLY OUT OF THE EQUATION BY THIS
TIME. SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN THEREFORE FOR SUNDAY.

POPS INCREASE MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND
PUSHES NORTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS THERMAL PROFILES
BECOME TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING ELSE. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH THE MONDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
LEADING UP IT...BUT THEY WILL BE ENE FOR SOME TIME AND TIDES WILL BE
ON THE HIGHER SIDE ASTRONOMICALLY AS THERE IS A NEW MOON ON SUNDAY.

FOR TUES AND WEDS...A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SECONDARY LOW CENTER FORMS BEFORE PASSING NEARBY WEDS
EVENING. THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT. HAVE CAPPED POPS
AT 50% FOR TUES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE
WEAKENING INITIAL LOW THAT HAD BEEN APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINA
COAST. MORE CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL DURING WEDS AS THE SECONDARY LOW
CENTER OF THE STRONGER STORM SYSTEM PASSES NEARBY.

MINOR STREET IS FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING WEDS/WEDS EVENING. STILL A
LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION ENHANCING THE RAINFALL AS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A
DECENT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING THROUGH SOME TIME ON WEDS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
SOME AREAS.

RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT PCPN WILL BE OVER BY CHRISTMAS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW...LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NW ZONES. NEAR-WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD
STILL BE MET. TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS MOSTLY 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPIN ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH 06Z SAT.

UNTIL SUNRISE...BKN 040-060 CIGS. ISOLATED MVFR CIGS ARND 030
POSSIBLE. WINDS GENERALLY 300-340 DEGREE MAGNETIC OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KT AT NYC METRO.

TODAY...SCT-BKN 040-060 CIGS. ISOLATED MVFR CIGS ARND 030 POSSIBLE
UNTIL 15Z. WINDS GENERALLY 320-360 DEGREE MAGNETIC WITH SPEEDS OF
10-15 KT GUSTS NEAR 20 KT UNTIL 22Z.

THIS EVENING...VFR WITH WINDS DECREASING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN CIGS. LIGHT EAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER IN CIGS. LIGHT EAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SE FLOW.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO W LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...A STEEP ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE WEST AND LOW NEAR
NEWFOUNDLAND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...ANY 25KT
GUSTS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE OCCASIONAL WITH MOST GUSTS BELOW 25
KT. THE LOW RACES TO THE NORTHERN LATITUDES DURING THE DAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A STEADY DECREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW AND SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE IN RESPONSE.

OVERALL...MAINLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS
AND SEAS BUILD ON MONDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA
CONDS THEN LIKELY FOLLOW MON NIGHT AND TUES.



&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
OF PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WEDNESDAY/WEDS NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION. MINOR STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM










000
FXUS61 KOKX 190919 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
417 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH LOW PRESSURE EXITING WELL UP INTO NORTHERN LATITUDES...THE
LOCAL REGION WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY
AND RIDGING ALOFT. THERE WILL LESSENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS LOWERING IN RESPONSE.

ONE MAIN FACTOR WITH THE FORECAST IS THE CURRENT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS WEAKENS THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. IF IT WEAKENS...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE MORE AND ALLOW
FOR MORE SUN AND IT IF HOLDS...A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS IN STORE.

MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE LOWER CLOUDS BEING
EXPERIENCED IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS SO FAR SO A MANUAL ADJUSTMENT
UPWARD WAS MADE TO MODEL CLOUD COVERAGE WITHIN THE FORECAST
DATABASE FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...A DOWNWARD TREND WAS CONVEYED GOING
INTO THE EVENING WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING CLOSER TO
THE LOCAL REGION.

FOR MAX TEMPS...USED A BLEND OF GMOS AND MAV GUIDANCE. THE MAV
GUIDANCE HAD RELATIVELY LESS ERROR COMPARED TO MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES THE PREVIOUS DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND HOW MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THERE WILL BE.
OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION...WINDS WILL FURTHER LOWER. THEREFORE...THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE DEPENDENT MAINLY ON THE CLOUD COVERAGE. WENT WITH
SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVERAGE AND AS A RESULT OF THAT USED A BLEND
OF GMOS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. THIS PRESENTS LOWS A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER BUT STILL...THESE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE REMARKABLY
LOWER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S TO NEAR 30.

FOR SATURDAY...SAME SCENARIO HERE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
BUILD IN. THIS DAY WILL FEATURE LOWER MAX TEMPS THOUGH BECAUSE OF
LIMITED VERTICAL MIXING. THE WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT N-NE FLOW...HELPING TO ADVECT IN SOME COOLER
AIR. MAX TEMPS AGAIN WERE A BLEND OF GMOS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND UP TO
3-4 DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE COAST THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF MAINE SAT NIGHT SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FROM
OFF THE WATERS. DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
SHALLOW...SUPPORTING ONLY LIGHT/VERY LIGHT PCPN. SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. MID LEVELS WILL PROBABLY BE DRY WITH
A LACK OF ICE NUCLEI. THERE IS HOWEVER A CHANCE THAT THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURE IN THE SATURATED LAYER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS FOR LIGHT SNOW. WOULD BE MORE
CONFIDENT FOR SNOW AS A PCPN TYPE IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS MORE
VEERED TO THE EAST (SEA SALT AS NUCLEI)...BUT IN ANY CASE...OVERALL
CHANCES OF PCPN ARE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH A MIX OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS.

MID LEVELS MOISTEN SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH...SO FREEZING RAIN IS PROBABLY OUT OF THE EQUATION BY THIS
TIME. SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN THEREFORE FOR SUNDAY.

POPS INCREASE MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND
PUSHES NORTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS THERMAL PROFILES
BECOME TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING ELSE. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH THE MONDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
LEADING UP IT...BUT THEY WILL BE ENE FOR SOME TIME AND TIDES WILL BE
ON THE HIGHER SIDE ASTRONOMICALLY AS THERE IS A NEW MOON ON SUNDAY.

FOR TUES AND WEDS...A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SECONDARY LOW CENTER FORMS BEFORE PASSING NEARBY WEDS
EVENING. THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT. HAVE CAPPED POPS
AT 50% FOR TUES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE
WEAKENING INITIAL LOW THAT HAD BEEN APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINA
COAST. MORE CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL DURING WEDS AS THE SECONDARY LOW
CENTER OF THE STRONGER STORM SYSTEM PASSES NEARBY.

MINOR STREET IS FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING WEDS/WEDS EVENING. STILL A
LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION ENHANCING THE RAINFALL AS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A
DECENT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING THROUGH SOME TIME ON WEDS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
SOME AREAS.

RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT PCPN WILL BE OVER BY CHRISTMAS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW...LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NW ZONES. NEAR-WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD
STILL BE MET. TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS MOSTLY 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPIN ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH 06Z SAT.

UNTIL SUNRISE...BKN 040-060 CIGS. ISOLATED MVFR CIGS ARND 030
POSSIBLE. WINDS GENERALLY 300-340 DEGREE MAGNETIC OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KT AT NYC METRO.

TODAY...SCT-BKN 040-060 CIGS. ISOLATED MVFR CIGS ARND 030 POSSIBLE
UNTIL 15Z. WINDS GENERALLY 320-360 DEGREE MAGNETIC WITH SPEEDS OF
10-15 KT GUSTS NEAR 20 KT UNTIL 22Z.

THIS EVENING...VFR WITH WINDS DECREASING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN CIGS. LIGHT EAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER IN CIGS. LIGHT EAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SE FLOW.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO W LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...A STEEP ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE WEST AND LOW NEAR
NEWFOUNDLAND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...ANY 25KT
GUSTS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE OCCASIONAL WITH MOST GUSTS BELOW 25
KT. THE LOW RACES TO THE NORTHERN LATITUDES DURING THE DAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A STEADY DECREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW AND SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE IN RESPONSE.

OVERALL...MAINLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS
AND SEAS BUILD ON MONDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA
CONDS THEN LIKELY FOLLOW MON NIGHT AND TUES.



&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
OF PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WEDNESDAY/WEDS NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION. MINOR STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM











000
FXUS61 KOKX 190919 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
417 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH LOW PRESSURE EXITING WELL UP INTO NORTHERN LATITUDES...THE
LOCAL REGION WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY
AND RIDGING ALOFT. THERE WILL LESSENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS LOWERING IN RESPONSE.

ONE MAIN FACTOR WITH THE FORECAST IS THE CURRENT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS WEAKENS THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. IF IT WEAKENS...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE MORE AND ALLOW
FOR MORE SUN AND IT IF HOLDS...A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS IN STORE.

MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE LOWER CLOUDS BEING
EXPERIENCED IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS SO FAR SO A MANUAL ADJUSTMENT
UPWARD WAS MADE TO MODEL CLOUD COVERAGE WITHIN THE FORECAST
DATABASE FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...A DOWNWARD TREND WAS CONVEYED GOING
INTO THE EVENING WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING CLOSER TO
THE LOCAL REGION.

FOR MAX TEMPS...USED A BLEND OF GMOS AND MAV GUIDANCE. THE MAV
GUIDANCE HAD RELATIVELY LESS ERROR COMPARED TO MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES THE PREVIOUS DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND HOW MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THERE WILL BE.
OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION...WINDS WILL FURTHER LOWER. THEREFORE...THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE DEPENDENT MAINLY ON THE CLOUD COVERAGE. WENT WITH
SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVERAGE AND AS A RESULT OF THAT USED A BLEND
OF GMOS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. THIS PRESENTS LOWS A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER BUT STILL...THESE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE REMARKABLY
LOWER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S TO NEAR 30.

FOR SATURDAY...SAME SCENARIO HERE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
BUILD IN. THIS DAY WILL FEATURE LOWER MAX TEMPS THOUGH BECAUSE OF
LIMITED VERTICAL MIXING. THE WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT N-NE FLOW...HELPING TO ADVECT IN SOME COOLER
AIR. MAX TEMPS AGAIN WERE A BLEND OF GMOS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND UP TO
3-4 DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE COAST THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF MAINE SAT NIGHT SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FROM
OFF THE WATERS. DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
SHALLOW...SUPPORTING ONLY LIGHT/VERY LIGHT PCPN. SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. MID LEVELS WILL PROBABLY BE DRY WITH
A LACK OF ICE NUCLEI. THERE IS HOWEVER A CHANCE THAT THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURE IN THE SATURATED LAYER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS FOR LIGHT SNOW. WOULD BE MORE
CONFIDENT FOR SNOW AS A PCPN TYPE IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS MORE
VEERED TO THE EAST (SEA SALT AS NUCLEI)...BUT IN ANY CASE...OVERALL
CHANCES OF PCPN ARE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH A MIX OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS.

MID LEVELS MOISTEN SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH...SO FREEZING RAIN IS PROBABLY OUT OF THE EQUATION BY THIS
TIME. SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN THEREFORE FOR SUNDAY.

POPS INCREASE MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND
PUSHES NORTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS THERMAL PROFILES
BECOME TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING ELSE. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH THE MONDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
LEADING UP IT...BUT THEY WILL BE ENE FOR SOME TIME AND TIDES WILL BE
ON THE HIGHER SIDE ASTRONOMICALLY AS THERE IS A NEW MOON ON SUNDAY.

FOR TUES AND WEDS...A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SECONDARY LOW CENTER FORMS BEFORE PASSING NEARBY WEDS
EVENING. THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT. HAVE CAPPED POPS
AT 50% FOR TUES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE
WEAKENING INITIAL LOW THAT HAD BEEN APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINA
COAST. MORE CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL DURING WEDS AS THE SECONDARY LOW
CENTER OF THE STRONGER STORM SYSTEM PASSES NEARBY.

MINOR STREET IS FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING WEDS/WEDS EVENING. STILL A
LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION ENHANCING THE RAINFALL AS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A
DECENT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING THROUGH SOME TIME ON WEDS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
SOME AREAS.

RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT PCPN WILL BE OVER BY CHRISTMAS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW...LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NW ZONES. NEAR-WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD
STILL BE MET. TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS MOSTLY 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPIN ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH 06Z SAT.

UNTIL SUNRISE...BKN 040-060 CIGS. ISOLATED MVFR CIGS ARND 030
POSSIBLE. WINDS GENERALLY 300-340 DEGREE MAGNETIC OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KT AT NYC METRO.

TODAY...SCT-BKN 040-060 CIGS. ISOLATED MVFR CIGS ARND 030 POSSIBLE
UNTIL 15Z. WINDS GENERALLY 320-360 DEGREE MAGNETIC WITH SPEEDS OF
10-15 KT GUSTS NEAR 20 KT UNTIL 22Z.

THIS EVENING...VFR WITH WINDS DECREASING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN CIGS. LIGHT EAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER IN CIGS. LIGHT EAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SE FLOW.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO W LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...A STEEP ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE WEST AND LOW NEAR
NEWFOUNDLAND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...ANY 25KT
GUSTS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE OCCASIONAL WITH MOST GUSTS BELOW 25
KT. THE LOW RACES TO THE NORTHERN LATITUDES DURING THE DAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A STEADY DECREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW AND SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE IN RESPONSE.

OVERALL...MAINLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS
AND SEAS BUILD ON MONDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA
CONDS THEN LIKELY FOLLOW MON NIGHT AND TUES.



&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
OF PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WEDNESDAY/WEDS NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION. MINOR STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM










000
FXUS61 KOKX 190919 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
417 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH LOW PRESSURE EXITING WELL UP INTO NORTHERN LATITUDES...THE
LOCAL REGION WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY
AND RIDGING ALOFT. THERE WILL LESSENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS LOWERING IN RESPONSE.

ONE MAIN FACTOR WITH THE FORECAST IS THE CURRENT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS WEAKENS THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. IF IT WEAKENS...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE MORE AND ALLOW
FOR MORE SUN AND IT IF HOLDS...A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS IN STORE.

MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE LOWER CLOUDS BEING
EXPERIENCED IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS SO FAR SO A MANUAL ADJUSTMENT
UPWARD WAS MADE TO MODEL CLOUD COVERAGE WITHIN THE FORECAST
DATABASE FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...A DOWNWARD TREND WAS CONVEYED GOING
INTO THE EVENING WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING CLOSER TO
THE LOCAL REGION.

FOR MAX TEMPS...USED A BLEND OF GMOS AND MAV GUIDANCE. THE MAV
GUIDANCE HAD RELATIVELY LESS ERROR COMPARED TO MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES THE PREVIOUS DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND HOW MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THERE WILL BE.
OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION...WINDS WILL FURTHER LOWER. THEREFORE...THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE DEPENDENT MAINLY ON THE CLOUD COVERAGE. WENT WITH
SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVERAGE AND AS A RESULT OF THAT USED A BLEND
OF GMOS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. THIS PRESENTS LOWS A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER BUT STILL...THESE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE REMARKABLY
LOWER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S TO NEAR 30.

FOR SATURDAY...SAME SCENARIO HERE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
BUILD IN. THIS DAY WILL FEATURE LOWER MAX TEMPS THOUGH BECAUSE OF
LIMITED VERTICAL MIXING. THE WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT N-NE FLOW...HELPING TO ADVECT IN SOME COOLER
AIR. MAX TEMPS AGAIN WERE A BLEND OF GMOS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND UP TO
3-4 DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE COAST THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF MAINE SAT NIGHT SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FROM
OFF THE WATERS. DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
SHALLOW...SUPPORTING ONLY LIGHT/VERY LIGHT PCPN. SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. MID LEVELS WILL PROBABLY BE DRY WITH
A LACK OF ICE NUCLEI. THERE IS HOWEVER A CHANCE THAT THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURE IN THE SATURATED LAYER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS FOR LIGHT SNOW. WOULD BE MORE
CONFIDENT FOR SNOW AS A PCPN TYPE IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS MORE
VEERED TO THE EAST (SEA SALT AS NUCLEI)...BUT IN ANY CASE...OVERALL
CHANCES OF PCPN ARE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH A MIX OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS.

MID LEVELS MOISTEN SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH...SO FREEZING RAIN IS PROBABLY OUT OF THE EQUATION BY THIS
TIME. SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN THEREFORE FOR SUNDAY.

POPS INCREASE MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND
PUSHES NORTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS THERMAL PROFILES
BECOME TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING ELSE. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH THE MONDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
LEADING UP IT...BUT THEY WILL BE ENE FOR SOME TIME AND TIDES WILL BE
ON THE HIGHER SIDE ASTRONOMICALLY AS THERE IS A NEW MOON ON SUNDAY.

FOR TUES AND WEDS...A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SECONDARY LOW CENTER FORMS BEFORE PASSING NEARBY WEDS
EVENING. THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT. HAVE CAPPED POPS
AT 50% FOR TUES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE
WEAKENING INITIAL LOW THAT HAD BEEN APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINA
COAST. MORE CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL DURING WEDS AS THE SECONDARY LOW
CENTER OF THE STRONGER STORM SYSTEM PASSES NEARBY.

MINOR STREET IS FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING WEDS/WEDS EVENING. STILL A
LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION ENHANCING THE RAINFALL AS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A
DECENT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING THROUGH SOME TIME ON WEDS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
SOME AREAS.

RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT PCPN WILL BE OVER BY CHRISTMAS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW...LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NW ZONES. NEAR-WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD
STILL BE MET. TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS MOSTLY 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPIN ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH 06Z SAT.

UNTIL SUNRISE...BKN 040-060 CIGS. ISOLATED MVFR CIGS ARND 030
POSSIBLE. WINDS GENERALLY 300-340 DEGREE MAGNETIC OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KT AT NYC METRO.

TODAY...SCT-BKN 040-060 CIGS. ISOLATED MVFR CIGS ARND 030 POSSIBLE
UNTIL 15Z. WINDS GENERALLY 320-360 DEGREE MAGNETIC WITH SPEEDS OF
10-15 KT GUSTS NEAR 20 KT UNTIL 22Z.

THIS EVENING...VFR WITH WINDS DECREASING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN CIGS. LIGHT EAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER IN CIGS. LIGHT EAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SE FLOW.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO W LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...A STEEP ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE WEST AND LOW NEAR
NEWFOUNDLAND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...ANY 25KT
GUSTS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE OCCASIONAL WITH MOST GUSTS BELOW 25
KT. THE LOW RACES TO THE NORTHERN LATITUDES DURING THE DAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A STEADY DECREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW AND SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE IN RESPONSE.

OVERALL...MAINLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS
AND SEAS BUILD ON MONDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA
CONDS THEN LIKELY FOLLOW MON NIGHT AND TUES.



&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
OF PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WEDNESDAY/WEDS NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION. MINOR STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM











000
FXUS61 KOKX 190909
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
409 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH LOW PRESSURE EXITING WELL UP INTO NORTHERN LATITUDES...THE
LOCAL REGION WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY
AND RIDGING ALOFT. THERE WILL LESSENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS LOWERING IN RESPONSE.

ONE MAIN FACTOR WITH THE FORECAST IS THE CURRENT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS WEAKENS THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. IF IT WEAKENS...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE MORE AND ALLOW
FOR MORE SUN AND IT IF HOLDS...A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS IN STORE.

MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE LOWER CLOUDS BEING
EXPERIENCED IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS SO FAR SO A MANUAL ADJUSTMENT
UPWARD WAS MADE TO MODEL CLOUD COVERAGE WITHIN THE FORECAST
DATABASE FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...A DOWNWARD TREND WAS CONVEYED GOING
INTO THE EVENING WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING CLOSER TO
THE LOCAL REGION.

FOR MAX TEMPS...USED A BLEND OF GMOS AND MAV GUIDANCE. THE MAV
GUIDANCE HAD RELATIVELY LESS ERROR COMPARED TO MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES THE PREVIOUS DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND HOW MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THERE WILL BE.
OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION...WINDS WILL FURTHER LOWER. THEREFORE...THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE DEPENDENT MAINLY ON THE CLOUD COVERAGE. WENT WITH
SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVERAGE AND AS A RESULT OF THAT USED A BLEND
OF GMOS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. THIS PRESENTS LOWS A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER BUT STILL...THESE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE REMARKABLY
LOWER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S TO NEAR 30.

FOR SATURDAY...SAME SCENARIO HERE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
BUILD IN. THIS DAY WILL FEATURE LOWER MAX TEMPS THOUGH BECAUSE OF
LIMITED VERTICAL MIXING. THE WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT N-NE FLOW...HELPING TO ADVECT IN SOME COOLER
AIR. MAX TEMPS AGAIN WERE A BLEND OF GMOS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND UP TO
3-4 DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE COAST THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF MAINE SAT NIGHT SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FROM
OFF THE WATERS. DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
SHALLOW...SUPPORTING ONLY LIGHT/VERY LIGHT PCPN. SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. MID LEVELS WILL PROBABLY BE DRY WITH
A LACK OF ICE NUCLEI. THERE IS HOWEVER A CHANCE THAT THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURE IN THE SATURATED LAYER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS FOR LIGHT SNOW. WOULD BE MORE
CONFIDENT FOR SNOW AS A PCPN TYPE IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS MORE
VEERED TO THE EAST (SEA SALT AS NUCLEI)...BUT IN ANY CASE...OVERALL
CHANCES OF PCPN ARE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH A MIX OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS.

MID LEVELS MOISTEN SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH...SO FREEZING RAIN IS PROBABLY OUT OF THE EQUATION BY THIS
TIME. SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN THEREFORE FOR SUNDAY.

POPS INCREASE MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND
PUSHES NORTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS THERMAL PROFILES
BECOME TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING ELSE. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH THE MONDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
LEADING UP IT...BUT THEY WILL BE ENE FOR SOME TIME AND TIDES WILL BE
ON THE HIGHER SIDE ASTRONOMICALLY AS THERE IS A NEW MOON ON SUNDAY.

FOR TUES AND WEDS...A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SECONDARY LOW CENTER FORMS BEFORE PASSING NEARBY WEDS
EVENING. THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT. HAVE CAPPED POPS
AT 50% FOR TUES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE
WEAKENING INITIAL LOW THAT HAD BEEN APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINA
COAST. MORE CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL DURING WEDS AS THE SECONDARY LOW
CENTER OF THE STRONGER STORM SYSTEM PASSES NEARBY.

MINOR STREET IS FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING WEDS/WEDS EVENING. STILL A
LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION ENHANCING THE RAINFALL AS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A
DECENT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING THROUGH SOME TIME ON WEDS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
SOME AREAS.

RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT PCPN WILL BE OVER BY CHRISTMAS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW...LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NW ZONES. NEAR-WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD
STILL BE MET. TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS MOSTLY 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPIN ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH 06Z SAT.

UNTIL SUNRISE...BKN 040-060 CIGS. ISOLATED MVFR CIGS ARND 030
POSSIBLE. WINDS GENERALLY 300-340 DEGREE MAGNETIC OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KT AT NYC METRO.

TODAY...SCT-BKN 040-060 CIGS. ISOLATED MVFR CIGS ARND 030 POSSIBLE
UNTIL 15Z. WINDS GENERALLY 320-360 DEGREE MAGNETIC WITH SPEEDS OF
10-15 KT GUSTS NEAR 20 KT UNTIL 22Z.

THIS EVENING...VFR WITH WINDS DECREASING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN CIGS. LIGHT EAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER IN CIGS. LIGHT EAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SE FLOW.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO W LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...A STEEP ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE WEST AND LOW NEAR
NEWFOUNDLAND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...ANY 25KT
GUSTS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE OCCASIONAL. THE LOW RACES TO THE
NORTHERN LATITUDES DURING THE DAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY DECREASE IN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL DECREASE IN
RESPONSE.

OVERALL...MAINLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS
AND SEAS BUILD ON MONDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA
CONDS THEN LIKELY FOLLOW MON NIGHT AND TUES.



&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
OF PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WEDNESDAY/WEDS NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION. MINOR STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM







000
FXUS61 KOKX 190909
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
409 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH LOW PRESSURE EXITING WELL UP INTO NORTHERN LATITUDES...THE
LOCAL REGION WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY
AND RIDGING ALOFT. THERE WILL LESSENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS LOWERING IN RESPONSE.

ONE MAIN FACTOR WITH THE FORECAST IS THE CURRENT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS WEAKENS THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. IF IT WEAKENS...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE MORE AND ALLOW
FOR MORE SUN AND IT IF HOLDS...A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS IN STORE.

MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE LOWER CLOUDS BEING
EXPERIENCED IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS SO FAR SO A MANUAL ADJUSTMENT
UPWARD WAS MADE TO MODEL CLOUD COVERAGE WITHIN THE FORECAST
DATABASE FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...A DOWNWARD TREND WAS CONVEYED GOING
INTO THE EVENING WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING CLOSER TO
THE LOCAL REGION.

FOR MAX TEMPS...USED A BLEND OF GMOS AND MAV GUIDANCE. THE MAV
GUIDANCE HAD RELATIVELY LESS ERROR COMPARED TO MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES THE PREVIOUS DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND HOW MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THERE WILL BE.
OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION...WINDS WILL FURTHER LOWER. THEREFORE...THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE DEPENDENT MAINLY ON THE CLOUD COVERAGE. WENT WITH
SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVERAGE AND AS A RESULT OF THAT USED A BLEND
OF GMOS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. THIS PRESENTS LOWS A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER BUT STILL...THESE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE REMARKABLY
LOWER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S TO NEAR 30.

FOR SATURDAY...SAME SCENARIO HERE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
BUILD IN. THIS DAY WILL FEATURE LOWER MAX TEMPS THOUGH BECAUSE OF
LIMITED VERTICAL MIXING. THE WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT N-NE FLOW...HELPING TO ADVECT IN SOME COOLER
AIR. MAX TEMPS AGAIN WERE A BLEND OF GMOS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND UP TO
3-4 DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE COAST THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF MAINE SAT NIGHT SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FROM
OFF THE WATERS. DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
SHALLOW...SUPPORTING ONLY LIGHT/VERY LIGHT PCPN. SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. MID LEVELS WILL PROBABLY BE DRY WITH
A LACK OF ICE NUCLEI. THERE IS HOWEVER A CHANCE THAT THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURE IN THE SATURATED LAYER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS FOR LIGHT SNOW. WOULD BE MORE
CONFIDENT FOR SNOW AS A PCPN TYPE IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS MORE
VEERED TO THE EAST (SEA SALT AS NUCLEI)...BUT IN ANY CASE...OVERALL
CHANCES OF PCPN ARE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH A MIX OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS.

MID LEVELS MOISTEN SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH...SO FREEZING RAIN IS PROBABLY OUT OF THE EQUATION BY THIS
TIME. SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN THEREFORE FOR SUNDAY.

POPS INCREASE MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND
PUSHES NORTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS THERMAL PROFILES
BECOME TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING ELSE. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH THE MONDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
LEADING UP IT...BUT THEY WILL BE ENE FOR SOME TIME AND TIDES WILL BE
ON THE HIGHER SIDE ASTRONOMICALLY AS THERE IS A NEW MOON ON SUNDAY.

FOR TUES AND WEDS...A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SECONDARY LOW CENTER FORMS BEFORE PASSING NEARBY WEDS
EVENING. THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT. HAVE CAPPED POPS
AT 50% FOR TUES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE
WEAKENING INITIAL LOW THAT HAD BEEN APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINA
COAST. MORE CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL DURING WEDS AS THE SECONDARY LOW
CENTER OF THE STRONGER STORM SYSTEM PASSES NEARBY.

MINOR STREET IS FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING WEDS/WEDS EVENING. STILL A
LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION ENHANCING THE RAINFALL AS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A
DECENT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING THROUGH SOME TIME ON WEDS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
SOME AREAS.

RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT PCPN WILL BE OVER BY CHRISTMAS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW...LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NW ZONES. NEAR-WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD
STILL BE MET. TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS MOSTLY 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPIN ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH 06Z SAT.

UNTIL SUNRISE...BKN 040-060 CIGS. ISOLATED MVFR CIGS ARND 030
POSSIBLE. WINDS GENERALLY 300-340 DEGREE MAGNETIC OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KT AT NYC METRO.

TODAY...SCT-BKN 040-060 CIGS. ISOLATED MVFR CIGS ARND 030 POSSIBLE
UNTIL 15Z. WINDS GENERALLY 320-360 DEGREE MAGNETIC WITH SPEEDS OF
10-15 KT GUSTS NEAR 20 KT UNTIL 22Z.

THIS EVENING...VFR WITH WINDS DECREASING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN CIGS. LIGHT EAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER IN CIGS. LIGHT EAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SE FLOW.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO W LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...A STEEP ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE WEST AND LOW NEAR
NEWFOUNDLAND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...ANY 25KT
GUSTS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE OCCASIONAL. THE LOW RACES TO THE
NORTHERN LATITUDES DURING THE DAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY DECREASE IN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL DECREASE IN
RESPONSE.

OVERALL...MAINLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS
AND SEAS BUILD ON MONDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA
CONDS THEN LIKELY FOLLOW MON NIGHT AND TUES.



&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
OF PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WEDNESDAY/WEDS NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION. MINOR STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 190546
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1246 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRATOCUMULUS REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH CIRRUS
MOVING ACROSS AS WELL. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS HELPING KEEP
THE LOWER CLOUDS WITHIN THE AREA. THE EXTRA CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY DESPITE LOWERING WINDS. LOWS WERE
SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED BUT ON AVERAGE...STILL ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS
VALUES. INCREASED CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

OVERALL...AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS
NEWFOUNDLAND AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. ALOFT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE HOVERING IN
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER FCST IS AGAIN THE ONLY ISSUE SEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND
VEER NE FRIDAY NIGHT.

MOS BLEND SEEMS VERY REASONABLE AND WAS ACCEPTED FOR MAXES AND
MINS. TEMPS ARE VERY CLOSE TO...IF NOT EXACTLY...SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN FEATURE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE.

SFC HIGH PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST AND
PARK ITSELF NEARLY OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF
500 MB SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
WITH A LACK OF SFC MOISTURE AND LIMITED LIFT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
THAN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW...AND WILL CAP POPS AT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OR NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40 ON SATURDAY AND IN THE LOW 40S ON SUNDAY.

A NEW MOON ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...MAY RESULT IN
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ON MONDAY. SFC LOW PRES
WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN THE GULF COAST
STATES. THE SECONDARY LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE
DAY MONDAY BEFORE PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE PARENT LOW AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BOTH CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK...AND THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN
FORM OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AS SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES DIVE INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST.

THIS NEW LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE COAST ON
CHRISTMAS EVE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW PASSING OVER
NYC AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND PCPN WILL BE ALL RAIN...AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE STREET FLOODING DURING THE
DAY AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...USHERING A COLDER AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION. LATEST ECMWF HAS THE LOW STARTING OUT AS 993 MB NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING UP AS A 965 MB LOW OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC AT 12Z THURSDAY. WITH A 28 MB DROP IN 24 HOURS...CAN
EXPECT STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...
TO DEVELOP ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK
AWAY...AND MANY THINGS CAN CHANGE BEFORE THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPIN ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH 06Z SAT.

OVERNIGHT...SCT 030-040 CIGS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. WINDS
GENERALLY 300-340 DEGREE MAGNETIC OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT AT NYC
METRO.

FRIDAY...SCT-BKN 035-040 CIGS...WITH LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS IN THE
MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY 320-360 DEGREE MAGNETIC WITH SPEEDS OF
10-15 KT GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.

FRIDAY EVENING...VFR WITH WINDS DECREASING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN CIGS. LIGHT EAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER IN CIGS. LIGHT EAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ONSHORE SE FLOW.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. SE WINDS
10-20 KT.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO W LATE.


&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED ENOUGH THAT THE WIND AND GUSTS
ACROSS ALL THE FORECAST WATERS HAVE NOW DIMINISHED AND WERE BELOW
25 KT. GUSTS REMAIN BELOW 25 KT IN TO FRIDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W ON FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE
WATERS THAT CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND
CONDS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS DURING THAT TIME. A STRONGER LOW WILL
IMPACT THE WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ON THE WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE
STARTING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH SAT WITH NO HYDRO IMPACTS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. SOME WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT. NO HYDROLOGICAL
IMPACTS EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WEDNESDAY MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. MINOR
STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...GC/NV
MARINE...MPS/MET/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...MPS/TONGUE










000
FXUS61 KOKX 190546
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1246 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRATOCUMULUS REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH CIRRUS
MOVING ACROSS AS WELL. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS HELPING KEEP
THE LOWER CLOUDS WITHIN THE AREA. THE EXTRA CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY DESPITE LOWERING WINDS. LOWS WERE
SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED BUT ON AVERAGE...STILL ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS
VALUES. INCREASED CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

OVERALL...AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS
NEWFOUNDLAND AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. ALOFT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE HOVERING IN
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER FCST IS AGAIN THE ONLY ISSUE SEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND
VEER NE FRIDAY NIGHT.

MOS BLEND SEEMS VERY REASONABLE AND WAS ACCEPTED FOR MAXES AND
MINS. TEMPS ARE VERY CLOSE TO...IF NOT EXACTLY...SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN FEATURE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE.

SFC HIGH PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST AND
PARK ITSELF NEARLY OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF
500 MB SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
WITH A LACK OF SFC MOISTURE AND LIMITED LIFT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
THAN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW...AND WILL CAP POPS AT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OR NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40 ON SATURDAY AND IN THE LOW 40S ON SUNDAY.

A NEW MOON ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...MAY RESULT IN
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ON MONDAY. SFC LOW PRES
WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN THE GULF COAST
STATES. THE SECONDARY LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE
DAY MONDAY BEFORE PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE PARENT LOW AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BOTH CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK...AND THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN
FORM OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AS SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES DIVE INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST.

THIS NEW LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE COAST ON
CHRISTMAS EVE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW PASSING OVER
NYC AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND PCPN WILL BE ALL RAIN...AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE STREET FLOODING DURING THE
DAY AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...USHERING A COLDER AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION. LATEST ECMWF HAS THE LOW STARTING OUT AS 993 MB NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING UP AS A 965 MB LOW OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC AT 12Z THURSDAY. WITH A 28 MB DROP IN 24 HOURS...CAN
EXPECT STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...
TO DEVELOP ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK
AWAY...AND MANY THINGS CAN CHANGE BEFORE THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPIN ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH 06Z SAT.

OVERNIGHT...SCT 030-040 CIGS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. WINDS
GENERALLY 300-340 DEGREE MAGNETIC OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT AT NYC
METRO.

FRIDAY...SCT-BKN 035-040 CIGS...WITH LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS IN THE
MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY 320-360 DEGREE MAGNETIC WITH SPEEDS OF
10-15 KT GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.

FRIDAY EVENING...VFR WITH WINDS DECREASING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN CIGS. LIGHT EAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER IN CIGS. LIGHT EAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ONSHORE SE FLOW.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. SE WINDS
10-20 KT.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO W LATE.


&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED ENOUGH THAT THE WIND AND GUSTS
ACROSS ALL THE FORECAST WATERS HAVE NOW DIMINISHED AND WERE BELOW
25 KT. GUSTS REMAIN BELOW 25 KT IN TO FRIDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W ON FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE
WATERS THAT CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND
CONDS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS DURING THAT TIME. A STRONGER LOW WILL
IMPACT THE WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ON THE WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE
STARTING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH SAT WITH NO HYDRO IMPACTS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. SOME WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT. NO HYDROLOGICAL
IMPACTS EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WEDNESDAY MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. MINOR
STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...GC/NV
MARINE...MPS/MET/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...MPS/TONGUE









000
FXUS61 KOKX 190338
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1038 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATO-CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND
INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST UNDER
A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ALSO WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND OF
5 TO 10 KT CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FORECAST LOWS AND RAISED A COUPLE OF
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER FCST IS AGAIN THE ONLY ISSUE SEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND
VEER NE FRIDAY NIGHT.

MOS BLEND SEEMS VERY REASONABLE AND WAS ACCEPTED FOR MAXES AND
MINS. TEMPS ARE VERY CLOSE TO...IF NOT EXACTLY...SEASONABLE.

NOTE THAT THE  HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN OHIO WILL PASS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MAY HAVE UNDERDONE
THIS IN THE SKY COVER GRIDS - DEPENDING ON IF IT TURNS MORE OPAQUE
THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN FEATURE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE.

SFC HIGH PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST AND
PARK ITSELF NEARLY OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF
500 MB SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
WITH A LACK OF SFC MOISTURE AND LIMITED LIFT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
THAN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW...AND WILL CAP POPS AT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OR NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40 ON SATURDAY AND IN THE LOW 40S ON SUNDAY.

A NEW MOON ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...MAY RESULT IN
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ON MONDAY. SFC LOW PRES
WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN THE GULF COAST
STATES. THE SECONDARY LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE
DAY MONDAY BEFORE PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE PARENT LOW AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BOTH CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK...AND THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN
FORM OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AS SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES DIVE INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST.

THIS NEW LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE COAST ON
CHRISTMAS EVE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW PASSING OVER
NYC AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND PCPN WILL BE ALL RAIN...AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE STREET FLOODING DURING THE
DAY AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...USHERING A COLDER AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION. LATEST ECMWF HAS THE LOW STARTING OUT AS 993 MB NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING UP AS A 965 MB LOW OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC AT 12Z THURSDAY. WITH A 28 MB DROP IN 24 HOURS...CAN
EXPECT STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...
TO DEVELOP ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK
AWAY...AND MANY THINGS CAN CHANGE BEFORE THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT...SCT 030-040 CIGS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. WINDS
GENERALLY 300-340 DEGREE MAGNETIC OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT AT NYC
METRO.

FRIDAY...SCT-BKN 035-040 CIGS...WITH LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS. WINDS
GENERALLY 320-360 DEGREE MAGNETIC WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT GUSTS
NEAR 20 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN CIGS. LIGHT EAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER IN CIGS. LIGHT EAST WINDS.
.MON...VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ONSHORE SE FLOW.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. SE WINDS
10-20 KT.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO W LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED ENOUGH THAT THE WIND AND GUSTS
ACROSS ALL THE FORECAST WATERS HAVE NOW DIMINISHED AND WERE BELOW
25 KT. GUSTS REMAIN BELOW 25 KT IN TO FRIDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W ON FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE
WATERS THAT CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND
CONDS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS DURING THAT TIME. A STRONGER LOW WILL
IMPACT THE WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ON THE WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE
STARTING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH SAT WITH NO HYDRO IMPACTS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. SOME WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT. NO HYDROLOGICAL
IMPACTS EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WEDNESDAY MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. MINOR
STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MET/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MPS/MET/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...MPS/TONGUE











000
FXUS61 KOKX 190338
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1038 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATO-CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND
INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST UNDER
A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ALSO WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND OF
5 TO 10 KT CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FORECAST LOWS AND RAISED A COUPLE OF
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER FCST IS AGAIN THE ONLY ISSUE SEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND
VEER NE FRIDAY NIGHT.

MOS BLEND SEEMS VERY REASONABLE AND WAS ACCEPTED FOR MAXES AND
MINS. TEMPS ARE VERY CLOSE TO...IF NOT EXACTLY...SEASONABLE.

NOTE THAT THE  HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN OHIO WILL PASS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MAY HAVE UNDERDONE
THIS IN THE SKY COVER GRIDS - DEPENDING ON IF IT TURNS MORE OPAQUE
THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN FEATURE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE.

SFC HIGH PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST AND
PARK ITSELF NEARLY OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF
500 MB SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
WITH A LACK OF SFC MOISTURE AND LIMITED LIFT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
THAN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW...AND WILL CAP POPS AT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OR NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40 ON SATURDAY AND IN THE LOW 40S ON SUNDAY.

A NEW MOON ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...MAY RESULT IN
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ON MONDAY. SFC LOW PRES
WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN THE GULF COAST
STATES. THE SECONDARY LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE
DAY MONDAY BEFORE PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE PARENT LOW AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BOTH CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK...AND THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN
FORM OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AS SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES DIVE INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST.

THIS NEW LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE COAST ON
CHRISTMAS EVE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW PASSING OVER
NYC AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND PCPN WILL BE ALL RAIN...AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE STREET FLOODING DURING THE
DAY AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...USHERING A COLDER AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION. LATEST ECMWF HAS THE LOW STARTING OUT AS 993 MB NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING UP AS A 965 MB LOW OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC AT 12Z THURSDAY. WITH A 28 MB DROP IN 24 HOURS...CAN
EXPECT STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...
TO DEVELOP ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK
AWAY...AND MANY THINGS CAN CHANGE BEFORE THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT...SCT 030-040 CIGS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. WINDS
GENERALLY 300-340 DEGREE MAGNETIC OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT AT NYC
METRO.

FRIDAY...SCT-BKN 035-040 CIGS...WITH LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS. WINDS
GENERALLY 320-360 DEGREE MAGNETIC WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT GUSTS
NEAR 20 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN CIGS. LIGHT EAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER IN CIGS. LIGHT EAST WINDS.
.MON...VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ONSHORE SE FLOW.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. SE WINDS
10-20 KT.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO W LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED ENOUGH THAT THE WIND AND GUSTS
ACROSS ALL THE FORECAST WATERS HAVE NOW DIMINISHED AND WERE BELOW
25 KT. GUSTS REMAIN BELOW 25 KT IN TO FRIDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W ON FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE
WATERS THAT CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND
CONDS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS DURING THAT TIME. A STRONGER LOW WILL
IMPACT THE WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ON THE WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE
STARTING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH SAT WITH NO HYDRO IMPACTS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. SOME WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT. NO HYDROLOGICAL
IMPACTS EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WEDNESDAY MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. MINOR
STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MET/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MPS/MET/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...MPS/TONGUE










000
FXUS61 KOKX 190338
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1038 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATO-CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND
INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST UNDER
A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ALSO WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND OF
5 TO 10 KT CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FORECAST LOWS AND RAISED A COUPLE OF
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER FCST IS AGAIN THE ONLY ISSUE SEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND
VEER NE FRIDAY NIGHT.

MOS BLEND SEEMS VERY REASONABLE AND WAS ACCEPTED FOR MAXES AND
MINS. TEMPS ARE VERY CLOSE TO...IF NOT EXACTLY...SEASONABLE.

NOTE THAT THE  HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN OHIO WILL PASS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MAY HAVE UNDERDONE
THIS IN THE SKY COVER GRIDS - DEPENDING ON IF IT TURNS MORE OPAQUE
THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN FEATURE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE.

SFC HIGH PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST AND
PARK ITSELF NEARLY OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF
500 MB SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
WITH A LACK OF SFC MOISTURE AND LIMITED LIFT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
THAN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW...AND WILL CAP POPS AT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OR NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40 ON SATURDAY AND IN THE LOW 40S ON SUNDAY.

A NEW MOON ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...MAY RESULT IN
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ON MONDAY. SFC LOW PRES
WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN THE GULF COAST
STATES. THE SECONDARY LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE
DAY MONDAY BEFORE PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE PARENT LOW AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BOTH CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK...AND THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN
FORM OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AS SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES DIVE INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST.

THIS NEW LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE COAST ON
CHRISTMAS EVE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW PASSING OVER
NYC AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND PCPN WILL BE ALL RAIN...AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE STREET FLOODING DURING THE
DAY AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...USHERING A COLDER AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION. LATEST ECMWF HAS THE LOW STARTING OUT AS 993 MB NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING UP AS A 965 MB LOW OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC AT 12Z THURSDAY. WITH A 28 MB DROP IN 24 HOURS...CAN
EXPECT STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...
TO DEVELOP ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK
AWAY...AND MANY THINGS CAN CHANGE BEFORE THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT...SCT 030-040 CIGS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. WINDS
GENERALLY 300-340 DEGREE MAGNETIC OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT AT NYC
METRO.

FRIDAY...SCT-BKN 035-040 CIGS...WITH LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS. WINDS
GENERALLY 320-360 DEGREE MAGNETIC WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT GUSTS
NEAR 20 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN CIGS. LIGHT EAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER IN CIGS. LIGHT EAST WINDS.
.MON...VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ONSHORE SE FLOW.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. SE WINDS
10-20 KT.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO W LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED ENOUGH THAT THE WIND AND GUSTS
ACROSS ALL THE FORECAST WATERS HAVE NOW DIMINISHED AND WERE BELOW
25 KT. GUSTS REMAIN BELOW 25 KT IN TO FRIDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W ON FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE
WATERS THAT CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND
CONDS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS DURING THAT TIME. A STRONGER LOW WILL
IMPACT THE WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ON THE WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE
STARTING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH SAT WITH NO HYDRO IMPACTS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. SOME WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT. NO HYDROLOGICAL
IMPACTS EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WEDNESDAY MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. MINOR
STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MET/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MPS/MET/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...MPS/TONGUE











000
FXUS61 KOKX 190338
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1038 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATO-CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND
INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST UNDER
A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ALSO WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND OF
5 TO 10 KT CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FORECAST LOWS AND RAISED A COUPLE OF
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER FCST IS AGAIN THE ONLY ISSUE SEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND
VEER NE FRIDAY NIGHT.

MOS BLEND SEEMS VERY REASONABLE AND WAS ACCEPTED FOR MAXES AND
MINS. TEMPS ARE VERY CLOSE TO...IF NOT EXACTLY...SEASONABLE.

NOTE THAT THE  HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN OHIO WILL PASS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MAY HAVE UNDERDONE
THIS IN THE SKY COVER GRIDS - DEPENDING ON IF IT TURNS MORE OPAQUE
THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN FEATURE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE.

SFC HIGH PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST AND
PARK ITSELF NEARLY OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF
500 MB SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
WITH A LACK OF SFC MOISTURE AND LIMITED LIFT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
THAN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW...AND WILL CAP POPS AT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OR NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40 ON SATURDAY AND IN THE LOW 40S ON SUNDAY.

A NEW MOON ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...MAY RESULT IN
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ON MONDAY. SFC LOW PRES
WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN THE GULF COAST
STATES. THE SECONDARY LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE
DAY MONDAY BEFORE PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE PARENT LOW AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BOTH CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK...AND THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN
FORM OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AS SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES DIVE INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST.

THIS NEW LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE COAST ON
CHRISTMAS EVE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW PASSING OVER
NYC AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND PCPN WILL BE ALL RAIN...AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE STREET FLOODING DURING THE
DAY AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...USHERING A COLDER AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION. LATEST ECMWF HAS THE LOW STARTING OUT AS 993 MB NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING UP AS A 965 MB LOW OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC AT 12Z THURSDAY. WITH A 28 MB DROP IN 24 HOURS...CAN
EXPECT STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...
TO DEVELOP ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK
AWAY...AND MANY THINGS CAN CHANGE BEFORE THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT...SCT 030-040 CIGS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. WINDS
GENERALLY 300-340 DEGREE MAGNETIC OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT AT NYC
METRO.

FRIDAY...SCT-BKN 035-040 CIGS...WITH LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS. WINDS
GENERALLY 320-360 DEGREE MAGNETIC WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT GUSTS
NEAR 20 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN CIGS. LIGHT EAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER IN CIGS. LIGHT EAST WINDS.
.MON...VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ONSHORE SE FLOW.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. SE WINDS
10-20 KT.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO W LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED ENOUGH THAT THE WIND AND GUSTS
ACROSS ALL THE FORECAST WATERS HAVE NOW DIMINISHED AND WERE BELOW
25 KT. GUSTS REMAIN BELOW 25 KT IN TO FRIDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W ON FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE
WATERS THAT CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND
CONDS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS DURING THAT TIME. A STRONGER LOW WILL
IMPACT THE WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ON THE WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE
STARTING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH SAT WITH NO HYDRO IMPACTS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. SOME WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT. NO HYDROLOGICAL
IMPACTS EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WEDNESDAY MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. MINOR
STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MET/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MPS/MET/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...MPS/TONGUE










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