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000
FXUS61 KOKX 012055
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
455 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ISO/SCT CONVECTION DIMINISHES THIS EVENING FROM THE COMBINATION OF
ATMOSPHERIC STABILIZATION...LOSS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DUE TO
DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES...AND UPPER
LIFT SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE AREA. PWAT VALUES WILL STILL BE ON
THE HIGH SIDE...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

DRY WEATHER BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT REMAINING MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS
HOVER AROUND 70. PATCHY LIGHT FOG PROBABLY DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AS
WELL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF IT DEVELOPS NEAR OUR WESTERN ZONES. SHOWER/TSTM THREAT
BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THIS TROUGH...AND ENDS FOR MOST SPOTS
OVERNIGHT WHEN THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. CAPPED POPS
IN THE CHC CATEGORY. PARAMETERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE LESS OF POSSIBILITY DUE TO RELATIVELY
HIGH WBZ/FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS. TSTM STRENGTH DIMINISHES AFTER
EARLY EVENING WITH LESS CAPE IN SPITE OF BETTER LIFT FROM THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. PWATS STILL RATHER HIGH...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 17-18C...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND A SW FLOW...EXPECTING PARTS OF NE
NJ TO REACH INTO THE LOW-MID 90S...WITH LOW 90S IN THE CITY AND A
GOOD PORTION OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MOST OTHER SPOTS EXPECTED
TO END UP AT 85-90. REGARDING HEAT ADVISORY CONCERNS IN THE
CITY...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT A DECENT PORTION OF THE CITY WILL
REACH A HEAT INDEX OF AT LEAST 95 FOR AN HOUR OR TWO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...INDICES HAD FAILED TO REACH 95 MONDAY AFTERNOON. NO
ADVISORIES WILL THEREFORE BE POSTED AS PER LOCAL POLICY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
BY THURSDAY WHILE ALOFT THERE WILL BE A RATHER ZONAL PATTERN.
HUMIDITY LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL EASE UP A BIT AS DEWPOINTS
DROP TO THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THEY CREEP BACK UP TOWARDS THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S AGAIN ON FRIDAY ON THE RETURN FLOW WITH THE HIGH
OFFSHORE.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING OFFSHORE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME
MODEL CONSENSUS ON PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER. THE 00Z ECMWF STALLS
THE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE AND THERE WOULD BE A CHANCE FOR POST-FRONTAL
RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS AND CMC KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE...ENDING THE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...KEEPING SUNDAY DRY.
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ACTUALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD
FRONT...PUSHING IT OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT ALSO ENDS
IT SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DIFFER IN DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH LEAD TO LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE...THE FRONT HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS 06Z RUN. SO...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING...DRYING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS A CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIRMASS BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF
THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH AROUND
23-00Z...BUT LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY DRIFT EASTWARD. OTHERWISE...VFR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

BY TONIGHT...PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY LATER
ON AT NIGHT. MVFR OR IFR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF NYC
METRO TERMINALS.

VFR TUESDAY MORNING AS ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG BURNS OFF.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WIND PERSISTS
TUESDAY MORNING...GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 23Z OR SO.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 23Z OR SO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE BOUNDARY IS JUST WEST OF THE
AIRPORT...RESULTING IN 150-170 WINDS. THIS BOUNDARY MAY WAVER
ACROSS THE AIRPORT THROUGH AROUND 23Z...BEFORE WINDS RETURN TO
LIGHT SW. POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 23Z OR SO.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 23Z OR SO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 23Z OR SO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE AFTERNOON-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED LATE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
.SAT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT MOST OF THE TIME.
THERE COULD BE SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED/SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED. LOCALIZED MINOR URBANIZED/SMALL STREAM FLOODING WOULD
BE POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOW.

ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN
NO MORE THAT LOCALIZED MINOR URBANIZED/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...NV/PW
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP








000
FXUS61 KOKX 011947
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
347 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ISO/SCT CONVECTION DIMINISHES THIS EVENING FROM THE COMBINATION OF
ATMOSPHERIC STABILIZATION...LOSS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DUE TO A
DEPARTING/DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH...AND UPPER LIFT SHIFTING EAST
OUT OF THE AREA. PWAT VALUES WILL STILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE...SO
HEAVY DOWNPOURS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

DRY WEATHER BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT REMAINING MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS
HOVER AROUND 70. PATCHY LIGHT FOG PROBABLY DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AS
WELL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF IT DEVELOPS NEAR OUR WESTERN ZONES. SHOWER/TSTM THREAT
BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THIS TROUGH...AND ENDS FOR MOST SPOTS
OVERNIGHT WHEN THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. CAPPED POPS
IN THE CHC CATEGORY. PARAMETERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE LESS OF POSSIBILITY DUE TO RELATIVELY
HIGH WBZ/FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS. TSTM STRENGTH DIMINISHES AFTER
EARLY EVENING WITH LESS CAPE IN SPITE OF BETTER LIFT FROM THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. PWATS STILL RATHER HIGH...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 17-18C...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND A SW FLOW...EXPECTING PARTS OF NE
NJ TO REACH INTO THE LOW-MID 90S...WITH LOW 90S IN THE CITY AND A
GOOD PORTION OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MOST OTHER SPOTS EXPECTED
TO END UP AT 85-90. REGARDING HEAT ADVISORY CONCERNS IN THE
CITY...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT A DECENT PORTION OF THE CITY WILL
REACH A HEAT INDEX OF AT LEAST 95 FOR AN HOUR OR TWO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...INDICES HAD FAILED TO REACH 95 MONDAY AFTERNOON. NO
ADVISORIES WILL THEREFORE BE POSTED AS PER LOCAL POLICY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
BY THURSDAY WHILE ALOFT THERE WILL BE A RATHER ZONAL PATTERN.
HUMIDITY LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL EASE UP A BIT AS DEWPOINTS
DROP TO THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THEY CREEP BACK UP TOWARDS THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S AGAIN ON FRIDAY ON THE RETURN FLOW WITH THE HIGH
OFFSHORE.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING OFFSHORE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME
MODEL CONSENSUS ON PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER. THE 00Z ECMWF STALLS
THE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE AND THERE WOULD BE A CHANCE FOR POST-FRONTAL
RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS AND CMC KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE...ENDING THE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...KEEPING SUNDAY DRY.
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ACTUALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD
FRONT...PUSHING IT OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT ALSO ENDS
IT SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DIFFER IN DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH LEAD TO LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE...THE FRONT HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS 06Z RUN. SO...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING...DRYING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS A CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIRMASS BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. EXPECT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 22-23Z. OTHERWISE...VFR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

BY TONIGHT...PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY LATER
ON AT NIGHT. MVFR OR IFR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO
TERMINALS.

VFR TUESDAY MORNING AS ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG BURNS OFF.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON LIGHTEN
TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WIND PERSISTS TUESDAY MORNING...GENERALLY UNDER
10 KTS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 22Z OR SO.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 22Z OR SO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE WILL APPROACH THE AIRPORT
AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 22Z OR SO.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 22Z OR SO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 22Z OR SO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 22Z OR SO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE AFTERNOON-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED LATE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
.SAT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT MOST OF THE TIME.
THERE COULD BE SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED/SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED. LOCALIZED MINOR URBANIZED/SMALL STREAM FLOODING WOULD
BE POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOW.

ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN
NO MORE THAT LOCALIZED MINOR URBANIZED/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP







000
FXUS61 KOKX 011947
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
347 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ISO/SCT CONVECTION DIMINISHES THIS EVENING FROM THE COMBINATION OF
ATMOSPHERIC STABILIZATION...LOSS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DUE TO A
DEPARTING/DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH...AND UPPER LIFT SHIFTING EAST
OUT OF THE AREA. PWAT VALUES WILL STILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE...SO
HEAVY DOWNPOURS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

DRY WEATHER BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT REMAINING MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS
HOVER AROUND 70. PATCHY LIGHT FOG PROBABLY DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AS
WELL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF IT DEVELOPS NEAR OUR WESTERN ZONES. SHOWER/TSTM THREAT
BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THIS TROUGH...AND ENDS FOR MOST SPOTS
OVERNIGHT WHEN THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. CAPPED POPS
IN THE CHC CATEGORY. PARAMETERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE LESS OF POSSIBILITY DUE TO RELATIVELY
HIGH WBZ/FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS. TSTM STRENGTH DIMINISHES AFTER
EARLY EVENING WITH LESS CAPE IN SPITE OF BETTER LIFT FROM THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. PWATS STILL RATHER HIGH...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 17-18C...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND A SW FLOW...EXPECTING PARTS OF NE
NJ TO REACH INTO THE LOW-MID 90S...WITH LOW 90S IN THE CITY AND A
GOOD PORTION OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MOST OTHER SPOTS EXPECTED
TO END UP AT 85-90. REGARDING HEAT ADVISORY CONCERNS IN THE
CITY...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT A DECENT PORTION OF THE CITY WILL
REACH A HEAT INDEX OF AT LEAST 95 FOR AN HOUR OR TWO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...INDICES HAD FAILED TO REACH 95 MONDAY AFTERNOON. NO
ADVISORIES WILL THEREFORE BE POSTED AS PER LOCAL POLICY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
BY THURSDAY WHILE ALOFT THERE WILL BE A RATHER ZONAL PATTERN.
HUMIDITY LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL EASE UP A BIT AS DEWPOINTS
DROP TO THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THEY CREEP BACK UP TOWARDS THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S AGAIN ON FRIDAY ON THE RETURN FLOW WITH THE HIGH
OFFSHORE.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING OFFSHORE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME
MODEL CONSENSUS ON PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER. THE 00Z ECMWF STALLS
THE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE AND THERE WOULD BE A CHANCE FOR POST-FRONTAL
RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS AND CMC KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE...ENDING THE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...KEEPING SUNDAY DRY.
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ACTUALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD
FRONT...PUSHING IT OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT ALSO ENDS
IT SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DIFFER IN DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH LEAD TO LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE...THE FRONT HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS 06Z RUN. SO...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING...DRYING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS A CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIRMASS BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. EXPECT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 22-23Z. OTHERWISE...VFR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

BY TONIGHT...PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY LATER
ON AT NIGHT. MVFR OR IFR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO
TERMINALS.

VFR TUESDAY MORNING AS ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG BURNS OFF.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON LIGHTEN
TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WIND PERSISTS TUESDAY MORNING...GENERALLY UNDER
10 KTS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 22Z OR SO.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 22Z OR SO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE WILL APPROACH THE AIRPORT
AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 22Z OR SO.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 22Z OR SO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 22Z OR SO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 22Z OR SO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE AFTERNOON-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED LATE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
.SAT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT MOST OF THE TIME.
THERE COULD BE SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED/SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED. LOCALIZED MINOR URBANIZED/SMALL STREAM FLOODING WOULD
BE POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOW.

ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN
NO MORE THAT LOCALIZED MINOR URBANIZED/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP








000
FXUS61 KOKX 011739
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
139 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATES AS IT
SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE...MAINLY WITH CLOUD COVER AND
HOURLY TEMPS. A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE FIST
HALF OF THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT HAS NOT RESULTED MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS
SO FAR. BUT MEANWHILE...WE CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND HIGH DEWPOINTS. MODERATE CAPE IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN SCT PULSE STORMS THIS AFTN. COULD BE
A FEW STRONGER STORMS...ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE. MORE IMPORTANTLY...PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2
INCHES AND STORMS WILL BE MOVING SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO AN ISOLD
FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINS...MAINLY IN URBANIZED AREAS. NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A WATCH HOWEVER.

LOOKS LIKE WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES FALL JUST SHORT OF 95 IN THE
CITY THIS AFTN. THIS WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION FOR
A POTENTIAL ADVISORY. THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN AND
CONSEQUENTIAL HIGH TEMPS...PLUS MARGINAL CRITERIA INDICES FOR
TOMORROW COMPLICATE THE FORECAST.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...DUE TO COMBINED 3
TO 5 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND A BACKGROUND SE SWELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHRA/TSTMS DIMINISH AND SHIFT EWD DURING THE EVENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT MOVE EAST.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE WITH H85 TEMPS
REMAINING AROUND 17-18C AND MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
W...BUT WE SHOULD STILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PCPN CHANCES DISSIPATE QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTH...DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH BETWEEN 00-06Z. ALOFT...THE BETTER FORCING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH ONLY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME. AS
SUCH...WILL CAP POPS AT HIGHER END CHC THROUGH 03Z OVER AREAS
NORTH/WEST NYC METRO...THEN TAPER OFF WITH ALL AREAS BCMG DRY BY
06Z. LINGERING INSTABILITY UP TO 1000 J/KG COULD SEE AN ISO TSTM
STILL PSBL TUES EVENING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE WHILE A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD
BRIEFLY ALOFT.

BY WEDNESDAY SEEING DRYING CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH DEEPENS AND
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. NO PCPN EXPECTED
WED-FRI UNDER SUCH A PATTERN. A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR WED IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK
A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH STILL REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. RISING
HEIGHTS WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL INCREASE TEMPS ONCE AGAIN BY
WEEKS END...ESP WITH A STRONGER SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

00Z GFS/CMC BEGIN APPROACHING THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING
IT THROUGH BY SAT MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH LATE SAT. QUESTION REMAINS TO
WHAT EXTENT THE RIDGE BUILDS...WITH THE GFS/CMC ACTUALLY SIDING
CLOSER TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED
RIDGE WHICH IN TURN TAKE LONGER TO WEAKEN. FOR NOW...SIDED MORE
WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR TIMING...THOUGH EVEN THAT COULD BE A BIT
SLOW AND RIDGING OVERDONE...WITH A GOOD COMPROMISE BEING SWINGING
THE FRONT THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY TOPPED
POPS AT CHC DURING THE DAY SAT...AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THE FRONT LINGERING JUST
OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THE ECMWF EVEN ON INTO MONDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
FRONTAL PLACEMENT. TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW BY SUNDAY AS WELL WITH THE TROUGH USHERING IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING...AND WILL BE SCATTERED
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 22-23Z. OTHERWISE...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
BROKEN CU.

BY TONIGHT...PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY LATER
ON AT NIGHT. MVFR OR IFR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO
TERMINALS.

VFR TUESDAY MORNING AS ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG BURNS OFF.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON LIGHTEN
TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WIND PERSISTS TUESDAY MORNING...GENERALLY UNDER
10 KTS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z OR SO.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z OR SO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE WILL APPROACH THE AIRPORT
AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AFTER 18-20Z. AMENDMENTS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z OR SO.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z OR SO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z OR SO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z OR SO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE AFTERNOON-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
.SAT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KTS MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUES EVENING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS REACHING 25 KTS DURING THIS TIME.
WAVES/SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WINDS...THOUGH AT
THE MOMENT EXPECTING SEA CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. WAVEWATCH WAS
QUICK TO BUILD THE SEAS...SIDING WITH THE QUICKER GFS SOLUTION...SO
DROPPED GUIDANCE AROUND 1 FT FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT TO REFLECT A SLOWER
SOLUTION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1/4 INCH TODAY.
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE
WILL BE AREAS THAT RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL...AND SOME AREAS
THAT COULD SEE OVER AN INCH.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT
TODAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLD FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH A WATER
LOADED ATMOSPHERE.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED WED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KOKX 011739
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
139 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATES AS IT
SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE...MAINLY WITH CLOUD COVER AND
HOURLY TEMPS. A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE FIST
HALF OF THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT HAS NOT RESULTED MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS
SO FAR. BUT MEANWHILE...WE CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND HIGH DEWPOINTS. MODERATE CAPE IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN SCT PULSE STORMS THIS AFTN. COULD BE
A FEW STRONGER STORMS...ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE. MORE IMPORTANTLY...PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2
INCHES AND STORMS WILL BE MOVING SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO AN ISOLD
FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINS...MAINLY IN URBANIZED AREAS. NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A WATCH HOWEVER.

LOOKS LIKE WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES FALL JUST SHORT OF 95 IN THE
CITY THIS AFTN. THIS WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION FOR
A POTENTIAL ADVISORY. THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN AND
CONSEQUENTIAL HIGH TEMPS...PLUS MARGINAL CRITERIA INDICES FOR
TOMORROW COMPLICATE THE FORECAST.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...DUE TO COMBINED 3
TO 5 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND A BACKGROUND SE SWELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHRA/TSTMS DIMINISH AND SHIFT EWD DURING THE EVENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT MOVE EAST.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE WITH H85 TEMPS
REMAINING AROUND 17-18C AND MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
W...BUT WE SHOULD STILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PCPN CHANCES DISSIPATE QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTH...DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH BETWEEN 00-06Z. ALOFT...THE BETTER FORCING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH ONLY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME. AS
SUCH...WILL CAP POPS AT HIGHER END CHC THROUGH 03Z OVER AREAS
NORTH/WEST NYC METRO...THEN TAPER OFF WITH ALL AREAS BCMG DRY BY
06Z. LINGERING INSTABILITY UP TO 1000 J/KG COULD SEE AN ISO TSTM
STILL PSBL TUES EVENING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE WHILE A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD
BRIEFLY ALOFT.

BY WEDNESDAY SEEING DRYING CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH DEEPENS AND
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. NO PCPN EXPECTED
WED-FRI UNDER SUCH A PATTERN. A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR WED IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK
A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH STILL REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. RISING
HEIGHTS WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL INCREASE TEMPS ONCE AGAIN BY
WEEKS END...ESP WITH A STRONGER SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

00Z GFS/CMC BEGIN APPROACHING THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING
IT THROUGH BY SAT MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH LATE SAT. QUESTION REMAINS TO
WHAT EXTENT THE RIDGE BUILDS...WITH THE GFS/CMC ACTUALLY SIDING
CLOSER TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED
RIDGE WHICH IN TURN TAKE LONGER TO WEAKEN. FOR NOW...SIDED MORE
WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR TIMING...THOUGH EVEN THAT COULD BE A BIT
SLOW AND RIDGING OVERDONE...WITH A GOOD COMPROMISE BEING SWINGING
THE FRONT THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY TOPPED
POPS AT CHC DURING THE DAY SAT...AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THE FRONT LINGERING JUST
OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THE ECMWF EVEN ON INTO MONDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
FRONTAL PLACEMENT. TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW BY SUNDAY AS WELL WITH THE TROUGH USHERING IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING...AND WILL BE SCATTERED
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 22-23Z. OTHERWISE...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
BROKEN CU.

BY TONIGHT...PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY LATER
ON AT NIGHT. MVFR OR IFR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO
TERMINALS.

VFR TUESDAY MORNING AS ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG BURNS OFF.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON LIGHTEN
TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WIND PERSISTS TUESDAY MORNING...GENERALLY UNDER
10 KTS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z OR SO.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z OR SO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE WILL APPROACH THE AIRPORT
AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AFTER 18-20Z. AMENDMENTS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z OR SO.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z OR SO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z OR SO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z OR SO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE AFTERNOON-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
.SAT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KTS MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUES EVENING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS REACHING 25 KTS DURING THIS TIME.
WAVES/SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WINDS...THOUGH AT
THE MOMENT EXPECTING SEA CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. WAVEWATCH WAS
QUICK TO BUILD THE SEAS...SIDING WITH THE QUICKER GFS SOLUTION...SO
DROPPED GUIDANCE AROUND 1 FT FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT TO REFLECT A SLOWER
SOLUTION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1/4 INCH TODAY.
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE
WILL BE AREAS THAT RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL...AND SOME AREAS
THAT COULD SEE OVER AN INCH.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT
TODAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLD FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH A WATER
LOADED ATMOSPHERE.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED WED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KOKX 011652
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1252 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATES AS IT
SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE...MAINLY WITH CLOUD COVER AND
HOURLY TEMPS. A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE FIST
HALF OF THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT HAS NOT RESULTED MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS
SO FAR. BUT MEANWHILE...WE CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND HIGH DEWPOINTS. MODERATE CAPE IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN SCT PULSE STORMS THIS AFTN. COULD BE
A FEW STRONGER STORMS...ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE. MORE IMPORTANTLY...PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2
INCHES AND STORMS WILL BE MOVING SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO AN ISOLD
FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINS...MAINLY IN URBANIZED AREAS. NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A WATCH HOWEVER.

LOOKS LIKE WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES FALL JUST SHORT OF 95 IN THE
CITY THIS AFTN. THIS WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION FOR
A POTENTIAL ADVISORY. THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN AND
CONSEQUENTIAL HIGH TEMPS...PLUS MARGINAL CRITERIA INDICES FOR
TOMORROW COMPLICATE THE FORECAST.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...DUE TO COMBINED 3
TO 5 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND A BACKGROUND SE SWELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHRA/TSTMS DIMINISH AND SHIFT EWD DURING THE EVENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT MOVE EAST.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE WITH H85 TEMPS
REMAINING AROUND 17-18C AND MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
W...BUT WE SHOULD STILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PCPN CHANCES DISSIPATE QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTH...DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH BETWEEN 00-06Z. ALOFT...THE BETTER FORCING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH ONLY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME. AS
SUCH...WILL CAP POPS AT HIGHER END CHC THROUGH 03Z OVER AREAS
NORTH/WEST NYC METRO...THEN TAPER OFF WITH ALL AREAS BCMG DRY BY
06Z. LINGERING INSTABILITY UP TO 1000 J/KG COULD SEE AN ISO TSTM
STILL PSBL TUES EVENING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE WHILE A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD
BRIEFLY ALOFT.

BY WEDNESDAY SEEING DRYING CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH DEEPENS AND
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. NO PCPN EXPECTED
WED-FRI UNDER SUCH A PATTERN. A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR WED IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK
A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH STILL REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. RISING
HEIGHTS WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL INCREASE TEMPS ONCE AGAIN BY
WEEKS END...ESP WITH A STRONGER SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

00Z GFS/CMC BEGIN APPROACHING THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING
IT THROUGH BY SAT MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH LATE SAT. QUESTION REMAINS TO
WHAT EXTENT THE RIDGE BUILDS...WITH THE GFS/CMC ACTUALLY SIDING
CLOSER TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED
RIDGE WHICH IN TURN TAKE LONGER TO WEAKEN. FOR NOW...SIDED MORE
WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR TIMING...THOUGH EVEN THAT COULD BE A BIT
SLOW AND RIDGING OVERDONE...WITH A GOOD COMPROMISE BEING SWINGING
THE FRONT THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY TOPPED
POPS AT CHC DURING THE DAY SAT...AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THE FRONT LINGERING JUST
OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THE ECMWF EVEN ON INTO MONDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
FRONTAL PLACEMENT. TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW BY SUNDAY AS WELL WITH THE TROUGH USHERING IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.

ANY COASTAL STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.

WITH HEATING...EXPECT AFTERNOON BROKEN CU TO DEVELOP.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY THE NYC METRO AND
INTERIOR TERMINALS. AGAIN THOUGH...TOO SCATTERED TO INCLUDE IN
FORECASTS AS LOCATION IS HARD TO PINPOINT.

THE LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT
DURING THE DAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...WITH TIMING OFF BY AN
HOUR OR TWO. AMENDMENT FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...WITH TIMING OFF BY AN
HOUR OR TWO. AMENDMENT FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY SW WIND EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME CONCERN FOR A SE SEA BREEZE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS AFTER
18Z. AMENDMENT FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENT FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...WITH TIMING OFF BY AN
HOUR OR TWO. AMENDMENT FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS AND IFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BEFORE 18Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KTS MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUES EVENING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS REACHING 25 KTS DURING THIS TIME.
WAVES/SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WINDS...THOUGH AT
THE MOMENT EXPECTING SEA CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. WAVEWATCH WAS
QUICK TO BUILD THE SEAS...SIDING WITH THE QUICKER GFS SOLUTION...SO
DROPPED GUIDANCE AROUND 1 FT FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT TO REFLECT A SLOWER
SOLUTION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1/4 INCH TODAY.
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE
WILL BE AREAS THAT RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL...AND SOME AREAS
THAT COULD SEE OVER AN INCH.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT
TODAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLD FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH A WATER
LOADED ATMOSPHERE.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED WED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KOKX 011652
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1252 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATES AS IT
SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE...MAINLY WITH CLOUD COVER AND
HOURLY TEMPS. A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE FIST
HALF OF THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT HAS NOT RESULTED MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS
SO FAR. BUT MEANWHILE...WE CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND HIGH DEWPOINTS. MODERATE CAPE IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN SCT PULSE STORMS THIS AFTN. COULD BE
A FEW STRONGER STORMS...ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE. MORE IMPORTANTLY...PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2
INCHES AND STORMS WILL BE MOVING SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO AN ISOLD
FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINS...MAINLY IN URBANIZED AREAS. NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A WATCH HOWEVER.

LOOKS LIKE WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES FALL JUST SHORT OF 95 IN THE
CITY THIS AFTN. THIS WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION FOR
A POTENTIAL ADVISORY. THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN AND
CONSEQUENTIAL HIGH TEMPS...PLUS MARGINAL CRITERIA INDICES FOR
TOMORROW COMPLICATE THE FORECAST.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...DUE TO COMBINED 3
TO 5 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND A BACKGROUND SE SWELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHRA/TSTMS DIMINISH AND SHIFT EWD DURING THE EVENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT MOVE EAST.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE WITH H85 TEMPS
REMAINING AROUND 17-18C AND MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
W...BUT WE SHOULD STILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PCPN CHANCES DISSIPATE QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTH...DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH BETWEEN 00-06Z. ALOFT...THE BETTER FORCING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH ONLY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME. AS
SUCH...WILL CAP POPS AT HIGHER END CHC THROUGH 03Z OVER AREAS
NORTH/WEST NYC METRO...THEN TAPER OFF WITH ALL AREAS BCMG DRY BY
06Z. LINGERING INSTABILITY UP TO 1000 J/KG COULD SEE AN ISO TSTM
STILL PSBL TUES EVENING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE WHILE A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD
BRIEFLY ALOFT.

BY WEDNESDAY SEEING DRYING CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH DEEPENS AND
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. NO PCPN EXPECTED
WED-FRI UNDER SUCH A PATTERN. A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR WED IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK
A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH STILL REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. RISING
HEIGHTS WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL INCREASE TEMPS ONCE AGAIN BY
WEEKS END...ESP WITH A STRONGER SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

00Z GFS/CMC BEGIN APPROACHING THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING
IT THROUGH BY SAT MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH LATE SAT. QUESTION REMAINS TO
WHAT EXTENT THE RIDGE BUILDS...WITH THE GFS/CMC ACTUALLY SIDING
CLOSER TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED
RIDGE WHICH IN TURN TAKE LONGER TO WEAKEN. FOR NOW...SIDED MORE
WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR TIMING...THOUGH EVEN THAT COULD BE A BIT
SLOW AND RIDGING OVERDONE...WITH A GOOD COMPROMISE BEING SWINGING
THE FRONT THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY TOPPED
POPS AT CHC DURING THE DAY SAT...AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THE FRONT LINGERING JUST
OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THE ECMWF EVEN ON INTO MONDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
FRONTAL PLACEMENT. TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW BY SUNDAY AS WELL WITH THE TROUGH USHERING IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.

ANY COASTAL STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.

WITH HEATING...EXPECT AFTERNOON BROKEN CU TO DEVELOP.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY THE NYC METRO AND
INTERIOR TERMINALS. AGAIN THOUGH...TOO SCATTERED TO INCLUDE IN
FORECASTS AS LOCATION IS HARD TO PINPOINT.

THE LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT
DURING THE DAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...WITH TIMING OFF BY AN
HOUR OR TWO. AMENDMENT FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...WITH TIMING OFF BY AN
HOUR OR TWO. AMENDMENT FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY SW WIND EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME CONCERN FOR A SE SEA BREEZE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS AFTER
18Z. AMENDMENT FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENT FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...WITH TIMING OFF BY AN
HOUR OR TWO. AMENDMENT FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS AND IFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BEFORE 18Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KTS MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUES EVENING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS REACHING 25 KTS DURING THIS TIME.
WAVES/SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WINDS...THOUGH AT
THE MOMENT EXPECTING SEA CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. WAVEWATCH WAS
QUICK TO BUILD THE SEAS...SIDING WITH THE QUICKER GFS SOLUTION...SO
DROPPED GUIDANCE AROUND 1 FT FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT TO REFLECT A SLOWER
SOLUTION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1/4 INCH TODAY.
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE
WILL BE AREAS THAT RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL...AND SOME AREAS
THAT COULD SEE OVER AN INCH.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT
TODAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLD FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH A WATER
LOADED ATMOSPHERE.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED WED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KOKX 011507
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1107 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATES AS IT
SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER FOR THE DURATION OF THE MORNING...BUT THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT CUMULUS STARTS TO FILL BACK IN LATE THIS MORNING ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES OF CT AND LI...AS WELL AS ALONG A TROUGH
SITUATED JUST WEST OF THE CITY. A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL PA WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ZONES
THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...WE DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
HIGH DEWPOINTS. MODERATE CAPE IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
RESULT IN SCT PULSE STORMS THIS AFTN. COULD BE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR NOT EXPECTING SEVERE. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES AND STORMS WILL BE
MOVING SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD THREAT
REMAINS...MAINLY IN URBANIZED AREAS. NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A
WATCH HOWEVER.

RAISED HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE CITY AND SOME SPOTS
NORTH AND WEST AS THERE HAS BEEN MORE SUNSHINE THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES FALL JUST SHORT OF 95
IN THE CITY THIS AFTN. THIS WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO
CONSIDERATION FOR A POTENTIAL ADVISORY. THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTN AND CONSEQUENTIAL HIGH TEMPS...PLUS MARGINAL
CRITERIA INDICES FOR TOMORROW COMPLICATE THE FORECAST.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...DUE TO COMBINED 3
TO 5 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND A BACKGROUND SE SWELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHRA/TSTMS DIMINISH AND SHIFT EWD DURING THE EVENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT MOVE EAST.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE WITH H85 TEMPS
REMAINING AROUND 17-18C AND MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
W...BUT WE SHOULD STILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PCPN CHANCES DISSIPATE QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTH...DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH BETWEEN 00-06Z. ALOFT...THE BETTER FORCING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH ONLY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME. AS
SUCH...WILL CAP POPS AT HIGHER END CHC THROUGH 03Z OVER AREAS
NORTH/WEST NYC METRO...THEN TAPER OFF WITH ALL AREAS BCMG DRY BY
06Z. LINGERING INSTABILITY UP TO 1000 J/KG COULD SEE AN ISO TSTM
STILL PSBL TUES EVENING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE WHILE A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD
BRIEFLY ALOFT.

BY WEDNESDAY SEEING DRYING CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH DEEPENS AND
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. NO PCPN EXPECTED
WED-FRI UNDER SUCH A PATTERN. A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR WED IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK
A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH STILL REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. RISING
HEIGHTS WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL INCREASE TEMPS ONCE AGAIN BY
WEEKS END...ESP WITH A STRONGER SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

00Z GFS/CMC BEGIN APPROACHING THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING
IT THROUGH BY SAT MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH LATE SAT. QUESTION REMAINS TO
WHAT EXTENT THE RIDGE BUILDS...WITH THE GFS/CMC ACTUALLY SIDING
CLOSER TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED
RIDGE WHICH IN TURN TAKE LONGER TO WEAKEN. FOR NOW...SIDED MORE
WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR TIMING...THOUGH EVEN THAT COULD BE A BIT
SLOW AND RIDGING OVERDONE...WITH A GOOD COMPROMISE BEING SWINGING
THE FRONT THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY TOPPED
POPS AT CHC DURING THE DAY SAT...AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THE FRONT LINGERING JUST
OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THE ECMWF EVEN ON INTO MONDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
FRONTAL PLACEMENT. TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW BY SUNDAY AS WELL WITH THE TROUGH USHERING IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.

ANY COASTAL STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.

WITH HEATING...EXPECT AFTERNOON BROKEN CU TO DEVELOP.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY THE NYC METRO AND
INTERIOR TERMINALS. AGAIN THOUGH...TOO SCATTERED TO INCLUDE IN
FORECASTS AS LOCATION IS HARD TO PINPOINT.

THE LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT
DURING THE DAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...WITH TIMING OFF BY AN
HOUR OR TWO. AMENDMENT FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...WITH TIMING OFF BY AN
HOUR OR TWO. AMENDMENT FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY SW WIND EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME CONCERN FOR A SE SEA BREEZE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS AFTER
18Z. AMENDMENT FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENT FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...WITH TIMING OFF BY AN
HOUR OR TWO. AMENDMENT FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS AND IFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BEFORE 18Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KTS MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUES EVENING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS REACHING 25 KTS DURING THIS TIME.
WAVES/SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WINDS...THOUGH AT
THE MOMENT EXPECTING SEA CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. WAVEWATCH WAS
QUICK TO BUILD THE SEAS...SIDING WITH THE QUICKER GFS SOLUTION...SO
DROPPED GUIDANCE AROUND 1 FT FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT TO REFLECT A SLOWER
SOLUTION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1/4 INCH TODAY.
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE
WILL BE AREAS THAT RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL...AND SOME AREAS
THAT COULD SEE OVER AN INCH.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT
TODAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLD FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH A WATER
LOADED ATMOSPHERE.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED WED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KOKX 011507
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1107 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATES AS IT
SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER FOR THE DURATION OF THE MORNING...BUT THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT CUMULUS STARTS TO FILL BACK IN LATE THIS MORNING ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES OF CT AND LI...AS WELL AS ALONG A TROUGH
SITUATED JUST WEST OF THE CITY. A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL PA WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ZONES
THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...WE DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
HIGH DEWPOINTS. MODERATE CAPE IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
RESULT IN SCT PULSE STORMS THIS AFTN. COULD BE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR NOT EXPECTING SEVERE. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES AND STORMS WILL BE
MOVING SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD THREAT
REMAINS...MAINLY IN URBANIZED AREAS. NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A
WATCH HOWEVER.

RAISED HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE CITY AND SOME SPOTS
NORTH AND WEST AS THERE HAS BEEN MORE SUNSHINE THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES FALL JUST SHORT OF 95
IN THE CITY THIS AFTN. THIS WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO
CONSIDERATION FOR A POTENTIAL ADVISORY. THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTN AND CONSEQUENTIAL HIGH TEMPS...PLUS MARGINAL
CRITERIA INDICES FOR TOMORROW COMPLICATE THE FORECAST.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...DUE TO COMBINED 3
TO 5 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND A BACKGROUND SE SWELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHRA/TSTMS DIMINISH AND SHIFT EWD DURING THE EVENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT MOVE EAST.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE WITH H85 TEMPS
REMAINING AROUND 17-18C AND MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
W...BUT WE SHOULD STILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PCPN CHANCES DISSIPATE QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTH...DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH BETWEEN 00-06Z. ALOFT...THE BETTER FORCING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH ONLY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME. AS
SUCH...WILL CAP POPS AT HIGHER END CHC THROUGH 03Z OVER AREAS
NORTH/WEST NYC METRO...THEN TAPER OFF WITH ALL AREAS BCMG DRY BY
06Z. LINGERING INSTABILITY UP TO 1000 J/KG COULD SEE AN ISO TSTM
STILL PSBL TUES EVENING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE WHILE A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD
BRIEFLY ALOFT.

BY WEDNESDAY SEEING DRYING CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH DEEPENS AND
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. NO PCPN EXPECTED
WED-FRI UNDER SUCH A PATTERN. A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR WED IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK
A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH STILL REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. RISING
HEIGHTS WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL INCREASE TEMPS ONCE AGAIN BY
WEEKS END...ESP WITH A STRONGER SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

00Z GFS/CMC BEGIN APPROACHING THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING
IT THROUGH BY SAT MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH LATE SAT. QUESTION REMAINS TO
WHAT EXTENT THE RIDGE BUILDS...WITH THE GFS/CMC ACTUALLY SIDING
CLOSER TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED
RIDGE WHICH IN TURN TAKE LONGER TO WEAKEN. FOR NOW...SIDED MORE
WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR TIMING...THOUGH EVEN THAT COULD BE A BIT
SLOW AND RIDGING OVERDONE...WITH A GOOD COMPROMISE BEING SWINGING
THE FRONT THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY TOPPED
POPS AT CHC DURING THE DAY SAT...AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THE FRONT LINGERING JUST
OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THE ECMWF EVEN ON INTO MONDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
FRONTAL PLACEMENT. TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW BY SUNDAY AS WELL WITH THE TROUGH USHERING IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.

ANY COASTAL STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.

WITH HEATING...EXPECT AFTERNOON BROKEN CU TO DEVELOP.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY THE NYC METRO AND
INTERIOR TERMINALS. AGAIN THOUGH...TOO SCATTERED TO INCLUDE IN
FORECASTS AS LOCATION IS HARD TO PINPOINT.

THE LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT
DURING THE DAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...WITH TIMING OFF BY AN
HOUR OR TWO. AMENDMENT FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...WITH TIMING OFF BY AN
HOUR OR TWO. AMENDMENT FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY SW WIND EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME CONCERN FOR A SE SEA BREEZE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS AFTER
18Z. AMENDMENT FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENT FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...WITH TIMING OFF BY AN
HOUR OR TWO. AMENDMENT FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS AND IFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BEFORE 18Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KTS MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUES EVENING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS REACHING 25 KTS DURING THIS TIME.
WAVES/SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WINDS...THOUGH AT
THE MOMENT EXPECTING SEA CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. WAVEWATCH WAS
QUICK TO BUILD THE SEAS...SIDING WITH THE QUICKER GFS SOLUTION...SO
DROPPED GUIDANCE AROUND 1 FT FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT TO REFLECT A SLOWER
SOLUTION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1/4 INCH TODAY.
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE
WILL BE AREAS THAT RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL...AND SOME AREAS
THAT COULD SEE OVER AN INCH.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT
TODAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLD FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH A WATER
LOADED ATMOSPHERE.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED WED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KOKX 011403
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1003 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS ONE SURFACE TROUGH DEPARTS THIS MORNING...ANOTHER WILL DEVELOP
WEST OF NEW YORK CITY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED
BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPS INTO THE 80S WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND
17C. THE PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO
DESTABILIZE AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MARGINALLY
MODERATE CAPE FORECAST IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN
SCT PULSE STORMS THIS AFTN. COULD BE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR NOT EXPECTING SEVERE. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES AND STORMS WILL BE
MOVING SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD THREAT
REMAINS...MAINLY IN URBANIZED AREAS. NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A
WATCH HOWEVER.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...DUE TO COMBINED 3
TO 5 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND A BACKGROUND SE SWELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHRA/TSTMS DIMINISH AND SHIFT EWD DURING THE EVENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT MOVE EAST.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE WITH H85 TEMPS
REMAINING AROUND 17-18C AND MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
W...BUT WE SHOULD STILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PCPN CHANCES DISSIPATE QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTH...DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH BETWEEN 00-06Z. ALOFT...THE BETTER FORCING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH ONLY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME. AS
SUCH...WILL CAP POPS AT HIGHER END CHC THROUGH 03Z OVER AREAS
NORTH/WEST NYC METRO...THEN TAPER OFF WITH ALL AREAS BCMG DRY BY
06Z. LINGERING INSTABILITY UP TO 1000 J/KG COULD SEE AN ISO TSTM
STILL PSBL TUES EVENING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE WHILE A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD
BRIEFLY ALOFT.

BY WEDNESDAY SEEING DRYING CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH DEEPENS AND
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. NO PCPN EXPECTED
WED-FRI UNDER SUCH A PATTERN. A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR WED IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK
A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH STILL REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. RISING
HEIGHTS WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL INCREASE TEMPS ONCE AGAIN BY
WEEKS END...ESP WITH A STRONGER SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

00Z GFS/CMC BEGIN APPROACHING THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING
IT THROUGH BY SAT MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH LATE SAT. QUESTION REMAINS TO
WHAT EXTENT THE RIDGE BUILDS...WITH THE GFS/CMC ACTUALLY SIDING
CLOSER TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED
RIDGE WHICH IN TURN TAKE LONGER TO WEAKEN. FOR NOW...SIDED MORE
WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR TIMING...THOUGH EVEN THAT COULD BE A BIT
SLOW AND RIDGING OVERDONE...WITH A GOOD COMPROMISE BEING SWINGING
THE FRONT THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY TOPPED
POPS AT CHC DURING THE DAY SAT...AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THE FRONT LINGERING JUST
OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THE ECMWF EVEN ON INTO MONDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
FRONTAL PLACEMENT. TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW BY SUNDAY AS WELL WITH THE TROUGH USHERING IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.

ANY COASTAL STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.

WITH HEATING...EXPECT AFTERNOON BROKEN CU TO DEVELOP.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY THE NYC METRO AND
INTERIOR TERMINALS. AGAIN THOUGH...TOO SCATTERED TO INCLUDE IN
FORECASTS AS LOCATION IS HARD TO PINPOINT.

THE LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT
DURING THE DAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...WITH TIMING OFF BY AN
HOUR OR TWO. AMENDMENT FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...WITH TIMING OFF BY AN
HOUR OR TWO. AMENDMENT FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY SW WIND EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME CONCERN FOR A SE SEA BREEZE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS AFTER
18Z. AMENDMENT FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENT FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...WITH TIMING OFF BY AN
HOUR OR TWO. AMENDMENT FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS AND IFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BEFORE 18Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING SO MAINTAINING THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
THROUGH 11 AM.

GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KTS MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUES EVENING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS REACHING 25 KTS DURING THIS TIME.
WAVES/SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WINDS...THOUGH AT
THE MOMENT EXPECTING SEA CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. WAVEWATCH WAS
QUICK TO BUILD THE SEAS...SIDING WITH THE QUICKER GFS SOLUTION...SO
DROPPED GUIDANCE AROUND 1 FT FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT TO REFLECT A SLOWER
SOLUTION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1/4 INCH TODAY.
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE
WILL BE AREAS THAT RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL...AND SOME AREAS
THAT COULD SEE OVER AN INCH.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT
TODAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLD FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH A WATER
LOADED ATMOSPHERE.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED WED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KOKX 011403
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1003 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS ONE SURFACE TROUGH DEPARTS THIS MORNING...ANOTHER WILL DEVELOP
WEST OF NEW YORK CITY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED
BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPS INTO THE 80S WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND
17C. THE PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO
DESTABILIZE AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MARGINALLY
MODERATE CAPE FORECAST IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN
SCT PULSE STORMS THIS AFTN. COULD BE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR NOT EXPECTING SEVERE. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES AND STORMS WILL BE
MOVING SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD THREAT
REMAINS...MAINLY IN URBANIZED AREAS. NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A
WATCH HOWEVER.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...DUE TO COMBINED 3
TO 5 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND A BACKGROUND SE SWELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHRA/TSTMS DIMINISH AND SHIFT EWD DURING THE EVENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT MOVE EAST.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE WITH H85 TEMPS
REMAINING AROUND 17-18C AND MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
W...BUT WE SHOULD STILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PCPN CHANCES DISSIPATE QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTH...DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH BETWEEN 00-06Z. ALOFT...THE BETTER FORCING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH ONLY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME. AS
SUCH...WILL CAP POPS AT HIGHER END CHC THROUGH 03Z OVER AREAS
NORTH/WEST NYC METRO...THEN TAPER OFF WITH ALL AREAS BCMG DRY BY
06Z. LINGERING INSTABILITY UP TO 1000 J/KG COULD SEE AN ISO TSTM
STILL PSBL TUES EVENING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE WHILE A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD
BRIEFLY ALOFT.

BY WEDNESDAY SEEING DRYING CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH DEEPENS AND
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. NO PCPN EXPECTED
WED-FRI UNDER SUCH A PATTERN. A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR WED IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK
A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH STILL REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. RISING
HEIGHTS WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL INCREASE TEMPS ONCE AGAIN BY
WEEKS END...ESP WITH A STRONGER SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

00Z GFS/CMC BEGIN APPROACHING THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING
IT THROUGH BY SAT MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH LATE SAT. QUESTION REMAINS TO
WHAT EXTENT THE RIDGE BUILDS...WITH THE GFS/CMC ACTUALLY SIDING
CLOSER TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED
RIDGE WHICH IN TURN TAKE LONGER TO WEAKEN. FOR NOW...SIDED MORE
WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR TIMING...THOUGH EVEN THAT COULD BE A BIT
SLOW AND RIDGING OVERDONE...WITH A GOOD COMPROMISE BEING SWINGING
THE FRONT THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY TOPPED
POPS AT CHC DURING THE DAY SAT...AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THE FRONT LINGERING JUST
OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THE ECMWF EVEN ON INTO MONDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
FRONTAL PLACEMENT. TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW BY SUNDAY AS WELL WITH THE TROUGH USHERING IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.

ANY COASTAL STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.

WITH HEATING...EXPECT AFTERNOON BROKEN CU TO DEVELOP.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY THE NYC METRO AND
INTERIOR TERMINALS. AGAIN THOUGH...TOO SCATTERED TO INCLUDE IN
FORECASTS AS LOCATION IS HARD TO PINPOINT.

THE LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT
DURING THE DAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...WITH TIMING OFF BY AN
HOUR OR TWO. AMENDMENT FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...WITH TIMING OFF BY AN
HOUR OR TWO. AMENDMENT FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY SW WIND EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME CONCERN FOR A SE SEA BREEZE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS AFTER
18Z. AMENDMENT FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENT FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...WITH TIMING OFF BY AN
HOUR OR TWO. AMENDMENT FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS AND IFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BEFORE 18Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING SO MAINTAINING THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
THROUGH 11 AM.

GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KTS MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUES EVENING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS REACHING 25 KTS DURING THIS TIME.
WAVES/SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WINDS...THOUGH AT
THE MOMENT EXPECTING SEA CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. WAVEWATCH WAS
QUICK TO BUILD THE SEAS...SIDING WITH THE QUICKER GFS SOLUTION...SO
DROPPED GUIDANCE AROUND 1 FT FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT TO REFLECT A SLOWER
SOLUTION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1/4 INCH TODAY.
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE
WILL BE AREAS THAT RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL...AND SOME AREAS
THAT COULD SEE OVER AN INCH.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT
TODAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLD FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH A WATER
LOADED ATMOSPHERE.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED WED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KOKX 011152
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
752 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS ONE SURFACE TROUGH DEPARTS THIS MORNING...ANOTHER WILL DEVELOP
WEST OF NEW YORK CITY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED
BREAKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO INTO THE 80S WITH
H85 TEMPS AROUND 17C. THE PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
MARGINALLY MODERATE CAPE FORECAST IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD RESULT IN SCT PULSE STORMS THIS AFTN. COULD BE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS...ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE. MORE IMPORTANTLY...PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES AND
STORMS WILL BE MOVING SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO AN ISOLD FLASH
FLOOD THREAT REMAINS...MAINLY IN URBANIZED AREAS. NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR A WATCH HOWEVER.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...DUE TO COMBINED 3
TO 5 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND A BACKGROUND SE SWELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHRA/TSTMS DIMINISH AND SHIFT EWD DURING THE EVENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT MOVE EAST.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE WITH H85 TEMPS
REMAINING AROUND 17-18C AND MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
W...BUT WE SHOULD STILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PCPN CHANCES DISSIPATE QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTH...DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH BETWEEN 00-06Z. ALOFT...THE BETTER FORCING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH ONLY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME. AS
SUCH...WILL CAP POPS AT HIGHER END CHC THROUGH 03Z OVER AREAS
NORTH/WEST NYC METRO...THEN TAPER OFF WITH ALL AREAS BCMG DRY BY
06Z. LINGERING INSTABILITY UP TO 1000 J/KG COULD SEE AN ISO TSTM
STILL PSBL TUES EVENING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE WHILE A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD
BRIEFLY ALOFT.

BY WEDNESDAY SEEING DRYING CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH DEEPENS AND
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. NO PCPN EXPECTED
WED-FRI UNDER SUCH A PATTERN. A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR WED IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK
A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH STILL REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. RISING
HEIGHTS WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL INCREASE TEMPS ONCE AGAIN BY
WEEKS END...ESP WITH A STRONGER SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

00Z GFS/CMC BEGIN APPROACHING THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING
IT THROUGH BY SAT MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH LATE SAT. QUESTION REMAINS TO
WHAT EXTENT THE RIDGE BUILDS...WITH THE GFS/CMC ACTUALLY SIDING
CLOSER TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED
RIDGE WHICH IN TURN TAKE LONGER TO WEAKEN. FOR NOW...SIDED MORE
WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR TIMING...THOUGH EVEN THAT COULD BE A BIT
SLOW AND RIDGING OVERDONE...WITH A GOOD COMPROMISE BEING SWINGING
THE FRONT THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY TOPPED
POPS AT CHC DURING THE DAY SAT...AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THE FRONT LINGERING JUST
OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THE ECMWF EVEN ON INTO MONDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
FRONTAL PLACEMENT. TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW BY SUNDAY AS WELL WITH THE TROUGH USHERING IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.

WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST AIRMASS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE. ANY STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT NYC/NJ TERMINALS BY
16Z. STRATUS COULD HOLD ON ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. ANY COVERAGE
WILL BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY THE NYC METRO AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.

THE LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT
DURING THE DAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS:  AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING SO MAINTAINING THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
THROUGH 11 AM.

GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KTS MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUES EVENING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS REACHING 25 KTS DURING THIS TIME.
WAVES/SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WINDS...THOUGH AT
THE MOMENT EXPECTING SEA CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. WAVEWATCH WAS
QUICK TO BUILD THE SEAS...SIDING WITH THE QUICKER GFS SOLUTION...SO
DROPPED GUIDANCE AROUND 1 FT FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT TO REFLECT A SLOWER
SOLUTION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1/4 INCH TODAY.
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE
WILL BE AREAS THAT RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL...AND SOME AREAS
THAT COULD SEE OVER AN INCH.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT
TODAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLD FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH A WATER
LOADED ATMOSPHERE.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED WED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM/NV









000
FXUS61 KOKX 011152
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
752 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS ONE SURFACE TROUGH DEPARTS THIS MORNING...ANOTHER WILL DEVELOP
WEST OF NEW YORK CITY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED
BREAKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO INTO THE 80S WITH
H85 TEMPS AROUND 17C. THE PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
MARGINALLY MODERATE CAPE FORECAST IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD RESULT IN SCT PULSE STORMS THIS AFTN. COULD BE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS...ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE. MORE IMPORTANTLY...PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES AND
STORMS WILL BE MOVING SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO AN ISOLD FLASH
FLOOD THREAT REMAINS...MAINLY IN URBANIZED AREAS. NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR A WATCH HOWEVER.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...DUE TO COMBINED 3
TO 5 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND A BACKGROUND SE SWELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHRA/TSTMS DIMINISH AND SHIFT EWD DURING THE EVENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT MOVE EAST.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE WITH H85 TEMPS
REMAINING AROUND 17-18C AND MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
W...BUT WE SHOULD STILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PCPN CHANCES DISSIPATE QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTH...DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH BETWEEN 00-06Z. ALOFT...THE BETTER FORCING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH ONLY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME. AS
SUCH...WILL CAP POPS AT HIGHER END CHC THROUGH 03Z OVER AREAS
NORTH/WEST NYC METRO...THEN TAPER OFF WITH ALL AREAS BCMG DRY BY
06Z. LINGERING INSTABILITY UP TO 1000 J/KG COULD SEE AN ISO TSTM
STILL PSBL TUES EVENING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE WHILE A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD
BRIEFLY ALOFT.

BY WEDNESDAY SEEING DRYING CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH DEEPENS AND
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. NO PCPN EXPECTED
WED-FRI UNDER SUCH A PATTERN. A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR WED IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK
A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH STILL REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. RISING
HEIGHTS WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL INCREASE TEMPS ONCE AGAIN BY
WEEKS END...ESP WITH A STRONGER SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

00Z GFS/CMC BEGIN APPROACHING THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING
IT THROUGH BY SAT MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH LATE SAT. QUESTION REMAINS TO
WHAT EXTENT THE RIDGE BUILDS...WITH THE GFS/CMC ACTUALLY SIDING
CLOSER TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED
RIDGE WHICH IN TURN TAKE LONGER TO WEAKEN. FOR NOW...SIDED MORE
WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR TIMING...THOUGH EVEN THAT COULD BE A BIT
SLOW AND RIDGING OVERDONE...WITH A GOOD COMPROMISE BEING SWINGING
THE FRONT THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY TOPPED
POPS AT CHC DURING THE DAY SAT...AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THE FRONT LINGERING JUST
OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THE ECMWF EVEN ON INTO MONDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
FRONTAL PLACEMENT. TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW BY SUNDAY AS WELL WITH THE TROUGH USHERING IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.

WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST AIRMASS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE. ANY STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT NYC/NJ TERMINALS BY
16Z. STRATUS COULD HOLD ON ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. ANY COVERAGE
WILL BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY THE NYC METRO AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.

THE LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT
DURING THE DAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS:  AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING SO MAINTAINING THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
THROUGH 11 AM.

GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KTS MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUES EVENING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS REACHING 25 KTS DURING THIS TIME.
WAVES/SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WINDS...THOUGH AT
THE MOMENT EXPECTING SEA CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. WAVEWATCH WAS
QUICK TO BUILD THE SEAS...SIDING WITH THE QUICKER GFS SOLUTION...SO
DROPPED GUIDANCE AROUND 1 FT FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT TO REFLECT A SLOWER
SOLUTION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1/4 INCH TODAY.
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE
WILL BE AREAS THAT RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL...AND SOME AREAS
THAT COULD SEE OVER AN INCH.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT
TODAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLD FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH A WATER
LOADED ATMOSPHERE.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED WED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM/NV










000
FXUS61 KOKX 010821
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
421 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS ONE SURFACE TROUGH DEPARTS THIS MORNING...ANOTHER WILL DEVELOP
WEST OF NEW YORK CITY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP OVER LONG ISLAND AND NYC...CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. THE LAST OF
IT WILL PUSH E OF THE COASTAL WATERS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. A VERY
HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO
TRIGGER AN ISOLD SHOWER...SO EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSTMS THIS MORNING...HAVE KEPT SCHC POPS (LOW CHC
ON LI) IN THE FORECAST WITH A FEW WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH ALOFT.

MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED BREAKS
OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO INTO THE 80S WITH H85
TEMPS AROUND 17C. THE PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
MARGINALLY MODERATE CAPE FORECAST IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD RESULT IN SCT PULSE STORMS THIS AFTN. COULD BE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS...ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE. MORE IMPORTANTLY...PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES AND
STORMS WILL BE MOVING SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO AN ISOLD FLASH
FLOOD THREAT REMAINS...MAINLY IN URBANIZED AREAS. NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR A WATCH HOWEVER.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...DUE TO COMBINED 3
TO 5 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND A BACKGROUND SE SWELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHRA/TSTMS DIMINISH AND SHIFT EWD DURING THE EVENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT MOVE EAST.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE WITH H85 TEMPS
REMAINING AROUND 17-18C AND MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
W...BUT WE SHOULD STILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PCPN CHANCES DISSIPATE QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTH...DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH BETWEEN 00-06Z. ALOFT...THE BETTER FORCING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH ONLY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME. AS
SUCH...WILL CAP POPS AT HIGHER END CHC THROUGH 03Z OVER AREAS
NORTH/WEST NYC METRO...THEN TAPER OFF WITH ALL AREAS BCMG DRY BY
06Z. LINGERING INSTABILITY UP TO 1000 J/KG COULD SEE AN ISO TSTM
STILL PSBL TUES EVENING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE WHILE A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD
BRIEFLY ALOFT.

BY WEDNESDAY SEEING DRYING CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH DEEPENS AND RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. NO PCPN EXPECTED WED-FRI UNDER
SUCH A PATTERN. A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR WED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK A FEW
DEGREES...THOUGH STILL REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. RISING HEIGHTS
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL INCREASE TEMPS ONCE AGAIN BY WEEKS
END...ESP WITH A STRONGER SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

00Z GFS/CMC BEGIN APPROACHING THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING
IT THROUGH BY SAT MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH LATE SAT. QUESTION REMAINS TO
WHAT EXTENT THE RIDGE BUILDS...WITH THE GFS/CMC ACTUALLY SIDING
CLOSER TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED
RIDGE WHICH IN TURN TAKE LONGER TO WEAKEN. FOR NOW...SIDED MORE
WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR TIMING...THOUGH EVEN THAT COULD BE A BIT
SLOW AND RIDGING OVERDONE...WITH A GOOD COMPROMISE BEING SWINGING
THE FRONT THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY TOPPED
POPS AT CHC DURING THE DAY SAT...AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THE FRONT LINGERING JUST
OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THE ECMWF EVEN ON INTO MONDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
FRONTAL PLACEMENT. TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW BY SUNDAY AS WELL WITH THE TROUGH USHERING IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SE OF THE NYC
METRO AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES LATER TODAY
FROM THE WEST.

MAIN AXIS FOR RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND...KEEPING THE TERMINALS MOSTLY DRY THIS MORNING. THERE MAY
HOWEVER BE A FEW STRAY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT POP UP.

WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST AIRMASS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE. ANY STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT NYC/NJ TERMINALS BY 16Z.
STRATUS COULD HOLD ON ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY THE NYC METRO AND
INTERIOR TERMINALS.

THE LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT
DURING THE DAY.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS:  AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET HAVE LIKELY DROPPED BELOW SCA
LEVELS...THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVSY THERE. EAST OF HERE
SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING. NO
CHANGES TO TIMING OF HEADLINES...ALTHOUGH HAVE CONVERTED THE
GENERIC SCA TO AN SCAHZ SINCE GUSTS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO
REACH 25 KT.

GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KTS MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUES EVENING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS REACHING 25 KTS DURING THIS TIME.
WAVES/SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WINDS...THOUGH AT
THE MOMENT EXPECTING SEA CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. WAVEWATCH WAS
QUICK TO BUILD THE SEAS...SIDING WITH THE QUICKER GFS SOLUTION...SO
DROPPED GUIDANCE AROUND 1 FT FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT TO REFLECT A SLOWER
SOLUTION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1/4 INCH TODAY.
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE
WILL BE AREAS THAT RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL...AND SOME AREAS
THAT COULD SEE OVER AN INCH.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT
TODAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLD FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH A WATER
LOADED ATMOSPHERE.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED WED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 010821
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
421 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS ONE SURFACE TROUGH DEPARTS THIS MORNING...ANOTHER WILL DEVELOP
WEST OF NEW YORK CITY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP OVER LONG ISLAND AND NYC...CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. THE LAST OF
IT WILL PUSH E OF THE COASTAL WATERS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. A VERY
HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO
TRIGGER AN ISOLD SHOWER...SO EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSTMS THIS MORNING...HAVE KEPT SCHC POPS (LOW CHC
ON LI) IN THE FORECAST WITH A FEW WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH ALOFT.

MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED BREAKS
OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO INTO THE 80S WITH H85
TEMPS AROUND 17C. THE PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
MARGINALLY MODERATE CAPE FORECAST IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD RESULT IN SCT PULSE STORMS THIS AFTN. COULD BE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS...ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE. MORE IMPORTANTLY...PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES AND
STORMS WILL BE MOVING SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO AN ISOLD FLASH
FLOOD THREAT REMAINS...MAINLY IN URBANIZED AREAS. NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR A WATCH HOWEVER.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...DUE TO COMBINED 3
TO 5 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND A BACKGROUND SE SWELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHRA/TSTMS DIMINISH AND SHIFT EWD DURING THE EVENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT MOVE EAST.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE WITH H85 TEMPS
REMAINING AROUND 17-18C AND MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
W...BUT WE SHOULD STILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PCPN CHANCES DISSIPATE QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTH...DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH BETWEEN 00-06Z. ALOFT...THE BETTER FORCING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH ONLY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME. AS
SUCH...WILL CAP POPS AT HIGHER END CHC THROUGH 03Z OVER AREAS
NORTH/WEST NYC METRO...THEN TAPER OFF WITH ALL AREAS BCMG DRY BY
06Z. LINGERING INSTABILITY UP TO 1000 J/KG COULD SEE AN ISO TSTM
STILL PSBL TUES EVENING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE WHILE A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD
BRIEFLY ALOFT.

BY WEDNESDAY SEEING DRYING CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH DEEPENS AND RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. NO PCPN EXPECTED WED-FRI UNDER
SUCH A PATTERN. A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR WED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK A FEW
DEGREES...THOUGH STILL REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. RISING HEIGHTS
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL INCREASE TEMPS ONCE AGAIN BY WEEKS
END...ESP WITH A STRONGER SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

00Z GFS/CMC BEGIN APPROACHING THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING
IT THROUGH BY SAT MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH LATE SAT. QUESTION REMAINS TO
WHAT EXTENT THE RIDGE BUILDS...WITH THE GFS/CMC ACTUALLY SIDING
CLOSER TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED
RIDGE WHICH IN TURN TAKE LONGER TO WEAKEN. FOR NOW...SIDED MORE
WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR TIMING...THOUGH EVEN THAT COULD BE A BIT
SLOW AND RIDGING OVERDONE...WITH A GOOD COMPROMISE BEING SWINGING
THE FRONT THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY TOPPED
POPS AT CHC DURING THE DAY SAT...AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THE FRONT LINGERING JUST
OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THE ECMWF EVEN ON INTO MONDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
FRONTAL PLACEMENT. TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW BY SUNDAY AS WELL WITH THE TROUGH USHERING IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SE OF THE NYC
METRO AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES LATER TODAY
FROM THE WEST.

MAIN AXIS FOR RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND...KEEPING THE TERMINALS MOSTLY DRY THIS MORNING. THERE MAY
HOWEVER BE A FEW STRAY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT POP UP.

WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST AIRMASS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE. ANY STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT NYC/NJ TERMINALS BY 16Z.
STRATUS COULD HOLD ON ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY THE NYC METRO AND
INTERIOR TERMINALS.

THE LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT
DURING THE DAY.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS:  AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET HAVE LIKELY DROPPED BELOW SCA
LEVELS...THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVSY THERE. EAST OF HERE
SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING. NO
CHANGES TO TIMING OF HEADLINES...ALTHOUGH HAVE CONVERTED THE
GENERIC SCA TO AN SCAHZ SINCE GUSTS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO
REACH 25 KT.

GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KTS MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUES EVENING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS REACHING 25 KTS DURING THIS TIME.
WAVES/SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WINDS...THOUGH AT
THE MOMENT EXPECTING SEA CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. WAVEWATCH WAS
QUICK TO BUILD THE SEAS...SIDING WITH THE QUICKER GFS SOLUTION...SO
DROPPED GUIDANCE AROUND 1 FT FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT TO REFLECT A SLOWER
SOLUTION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1/4 INCH TODAY.
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE
WILL BE AREAS THAT RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL...AND SOME AREAS
THAT COULD SEE OVER AN INCH.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT
TODAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLD FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH A WATER
LOADED ATMOSPHERE.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED WED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KOKX 010534
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
134 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE IN THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATER ON NEXT
SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SE TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT
WHILE WEAKENING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BECOME SEMI- STATIONARY
ACROSS LI...FAR SE CT...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NYC
METRO OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS
A FOCUS FOR SCT CONVECTION AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE AXIS
TRAVERSES EASTWARD. ONLY A LOW THREAT OF ANY STRONG STORMS
OVERNIGHT.

MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WOULD
PROMOTE THE THREAT OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS. WITH
LESSER INTENSITY OF CONVECTION...MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE MINOR
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER AND A SW
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP JUST
TO THE WEST ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS TIME
AROUND...SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK PASSING OVER US. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME...THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT MOVE EAST.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL AS MLCAPES PROBABLY RISE
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS TIME HOWEVER THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR TRAINING OF
CELLS. BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE A THREAT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY...DUE TO
COMBINED 3 TO 5 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND A BACKGROUND SE SWELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS
ALOFT FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A
RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH MOST FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. RIDGING
RESUMES THEREAFTER MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WITHOUT A STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO
THIS WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
WEAKENS THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING SATURDAY AND MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATEST
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE VICINITY OF
NYC AND URBAN NORTHEAST NJ ON TUESDAY...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE
SHEAR TO WORK...AROUND 25 TO 35 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED BY MUCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN AROUND 500
TO 2000 J/KG. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SE OF THE NYC
METRO AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES LATER
TODAY FROM THE WEST.

MAIN AXIS FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND EMBEDDED TSTM
ACTIVITY IS ALONG THIS WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THIS BOUNDARY HANGS UP CLOSE TO KEWR/KJFK AND PARTICULARLY
KISP BEFORE DISSIPATING...WHICH WOULD PROLONG THE THREAT OF SHRA
INTO LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST AIRMASS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF
THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT NYC/NJ TERMINALS
BY 16Z MON. STRATUS COULD HOLD ON ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MON
AFT/EVE...PARTICULARLY NYC METRO AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT S/SW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW FLOW OF AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5FT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS FALL
JUST SHORT OF 5FT...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS
DON`T TOUCH 5FT TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SCA WHICH IS POSTED FOR
TONIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WOULD HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH RIDGING THE MORE DOMINANT PATTERN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE...ABOUT AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE BASINS. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE WILL BE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MUCH LESS...AND SOME AREAS THAT COULD SEE OVER 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO
MON MORNING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN MON AFT/EVE.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BC/NV
MARINE...JC/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM/NV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 010534
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
134 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE IN THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATER ON NEXT
SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SE TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT
WHILE WEAKENING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BECOME SEMI- STATIONARY
ACROSS LI...FAR SE CT...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NYC
METRO OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS
A FOCUS FOR SCT CONVECTION AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE AXIS
TRAVERSES EASTWARD. ONLY A LOW THREAT OF ANY STRONG STORMS
OVERNIGHT.

MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WOULD
PROMOTE THE THREAT OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS. WITH
LESSER INTENSITY OF CONVECTION...MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE MINOR
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER AND A SW
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP JUST
TO THE WEST ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS TIME
AROUND...SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK PASSING OVER US. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME...THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT MOVE EAST.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL AS MLCAPES PROBABLY RISE
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS TIME HOWEVER THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR TRAINING OF
CELLS. BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE A THREAT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY...DUE TO
COMBINED 3 TO 5 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND A BACKGROUND SE SWELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS
ALOFT FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A
RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH MOST FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. RIDGING
RESUMES THEREAFTER MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WITHOUT A STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO
THIS WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
WEAKENS THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING SATURDAY AND MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATEST
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE VICINITY OF
NYC AND URBAN NORTHEAST NJ ON TUESDAY...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE
SHEAR TO WORK...AROUND 25 TO 35 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED BY MUCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN AROUND 500
TO 2000 J/KG. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SE OF THE NYC
METRO AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES LATER
TODAY FROM THE WEST.

MAIN AXIS FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND EMBEDDED TSTM
ACTIVITY IS ALONG THIS WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THIS BOUNDARY HANGS UP CLOSE TO KEWR/KJFK AND PARTICULARLY
KISP BEFORE DISSIPATING...WHICH WOULD PROLONG THE THREAT OF SHRA
INTO LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST AIRMASS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF
THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT NYC/NJ TERMINALS
BY 16Z MON. STRATUS COULD HOLD ON ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MON
AFT/EVE...PARTICULARLY NYC METRO AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT S/SW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW FLOW OF AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5FT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS FALL
JUST SHORT OF 5FT...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS
DON`T TOUCH 5FT TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SCA WHICH IS POSTED FOR
TONIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WOULD HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH RIDGING THE MORE DOMINANT PATTERN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE...ABOUT AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE BASINS. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE WILL BE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MUCH LESS...AND SOME AREAS THAT COULD SEE OVER 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO
MON MORNING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN MON AFT/EVE.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BC/NV
MARINE...JC/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM/NV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 010153
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
953 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE IN THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATER ON NEXT
SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SE TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT
WHILE WEAKENING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BECOME SEMI- STATIONARY
ACROSS LI...FAR SE CT...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NYC
METRO OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS
A FOCUS FOR SCT CONVECTION AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE AXIS
TRAVERSES EASTWARD. ONLY A LOW THREAT OF ANY STRONG STORMS
OVERNIGHT.

MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WOULD
PROMOTE THE THREAT OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS. WITH
LESSER INTENSITY OF CONVECTION...MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE MINOR
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER AND A SW
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP JUST
TO THE WEST ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS TIME
AROUND...SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK PASSING OVER US. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME...THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT MOVE EAST.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL AS MLCAPES PROBABLY RISE
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS TIME HOWEVER THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR TRAINING OF
CELLS. BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE A THREAT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY...DUE TO
COMBINED 3 TO 5 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND A BACKGROUND SE SWELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS
ALOFT FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A
RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH MOST FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. RIDGING
RESUMES THEREAFTER MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WITHOUT A STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO
THIS WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
WEAKENS THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING SATURDAY AND MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATEST
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE VICINITY OF
NYC AND URBAN NORTHEAST NJ ON TUESDAY...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE
SHEAR TO WORK...AROUND 25 TO 35 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED BY MUCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN AROUND 500
TO 2000 J/KG. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SE OF THE NYC
METRO AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY
FROM THE WEST.

MAIN AXIS FOR ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWER AND EMBEDDED TSTM ACTIVITY IS
ALONG THIS WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS
BOUNDARY HANGS UP CLOSE TO KEWR/KJFK AND PARTICULARLY KISP BEFORE
DISSIPATING...WHICH WOULD PROLONG THE THREAT OF SHRA INTO LATE
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST AIRMASS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY
BURN OFF MONDAY MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDS AT NYC/NJ
TERMINALS BY 16Z MON. STRATUS COULD HOLD ON ACROSS EASTERN
TERMINALS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MON
AFT/EVE...PARTICULARLY NYC METRO AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT S/SW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
HOURS...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW FLOW OF AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5FT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS FALL
JUST SHORT OF 5FT...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS
DON`T TOUCH 5FT TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SCA WHICH IS POSTED FOR
TONIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WOULD HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH RIDGING THE MORE DOMINANT PATTERN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE...ABOUT AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE BASINS. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE WILL BE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MUCH LESS...AND SOME AREAS THAT COULD SEE OVER 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO
MON MORNING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN MON AFT/EVE.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM/NV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 010153
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
953 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE IN THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATER ON NEXT
SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SE TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT
WHILE WEAKENING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BECOME SEMI- STATIONARY
ACROSS LI...FAR SE CT...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NYC
METRO OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS
A FOCUS FOR SCT CONVECTION AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE AXIS
TRAVERSES EASTWARD. ONLY A LOW THREAT OF ANY STRONG STORMS
OVERNIGHT.

MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WOULD
PROMOTE THE THREAT OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS. WITH
LESSER INTENSITY OF CONVECTION...MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE MINOR
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER AND A SW
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP JUST
TO THE WEST ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS TIME
AROUND...SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK PASSING OVER US. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME...THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT MOVE EAST.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL AS MLCAPES PROBABLY RISE
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS TIME HOWEVER THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR TRAINING OF
CELLS. BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE A THREAT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY...DUE TO
COMBINED 3 TO 5 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND A BACKGROUND SE SWELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS
ALOFT FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A
RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH MOST FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. RIDGING
RESUMES THEREAFTER MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WITHOUT A STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO
THIS WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
WEAKENS THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING SATURDAY AND MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATEST
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE VICINITY OF
NYC AND URBAN NORTHEAST NJ ON TUESDAY...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE
SHEAR TO WORK...AROUND 25 TO 35 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED BY MUCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN AROUND 500
TO 2000 J/KG. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SE OF THE NYC
METRO AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY
FROM THE WEST.

MAIN AXIS FOR ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWER AND EMBEDDED TSTM ACTIVITY IS
ALONG THIS WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS
BOUNDARY HANGS UP CLOSE TO KEWR/KJFK AND PARTICULARLY KISP BEFORE
DISSIPATING...WHICH WOULD PROLONG THE THREAT OF SHRA INTO LATE
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST AIRMASS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY
BURN OFF MONDAY MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDS AT NYC/NJ
TERMINALS BY 16Z MON. STRATUS COULD HOLD ON ACROSS EASTERN
TERMINALS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MON
AFT/EVE...PARTICULARLY NYC METRO AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT S/SW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
HOURS...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW FLOW OF AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5FT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS FALL
JUST SHORT OF 5FT...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS
DON`T TOUCH 5FT TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SCA WHICH IS POSTED FOR
TONIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WOULD HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH RIDGING THE MORE DOMINANT PATTERN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE...ABOUT AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE BASINS. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE WILL BE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MUCH LESS...AND SOME AREAS THAT COULD SEE OVER 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO
MON MORNING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN MON AFT/EVE.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM/NV









000
FXUS61 KOKX 312359
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
759 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE IN THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATER ON NEXT
SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL PUSHING OFF EASTERN LI/SE CT SHORTLY.
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SINK SE FROM THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY/SW CT/NE NJ THROUGH THE EVENING AND THIS BOUNDARY COULD
BECOME SEMI- STATIONARY ACROSS LI AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE NYC METRO OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCT CONVECTION AS A
SHORTWAVE AXIS TRAVERSES EASTWARD.

THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS COME TO AND END WITH EARLIER
CONVECTION AND NIGHTFALL STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. ONLY A LOW
THREAT OF ANY STRONG STORMS OVERNIGHT.

MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WOULD
PROMOTE THE THREAT OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS. WITH
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION LESSENING...MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE MINOR
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER AND A SW
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP JUST
TO THE WEST ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS TIME
AROUND...SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK PASSING OVER US. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME...THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT MOVE EAST.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL AS MLCAPES PROBABLY RISE
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS TIME HOWEVER THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR TRAINING OF
CELLS. BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE A THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS
ALOFT FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A
RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH MOST FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. RIDGING
RESUMES THEREAFTER MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WITHOUT A STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO
THIS WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
WEAKENS THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING SATURDAY AND MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATEST
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE VICINITY OF
NYC AND URBAN NORTHEAST NJ ON TUESDAY...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE
SHEAR TO WORK...AROUND 25 TO 35 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED BY MUCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN AROUND 500
TO 2000 J/KG. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...JUST NW OF NYC AS OF 00Z...WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SINK SE AND THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHES MONDAY FROM THE WEST.

MAIN AXIS FOR ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ALONG THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHICH SHOULD PASS SE
OF NYC TERMINALS BY AROUND 04-06Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS
BOUNDARY HANGS UP CLOSE TO KEWR/KJFK AND PARTICULARLY KISP BEFORE
DISSIPATING...WHICH WOULD PROLONG THE THREAT OF SHRA INTO LATE
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST AIRMASS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY
BURN OFF MONDAY MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDS AT NYC/NJ
TERMINALS BY 16Z MON. STRATUS COULD HOLD ON ACROSS EASTERN
TERMINALS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MON
AFT/EVE...PARTICULARLY NYC METRO AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT S/SW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
HOURS...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW FLOW OF AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5FT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS FALL
JUST SHORT OF 5FT...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS
DON`T TOUCH 5FT TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SCA WHICH IS POSTED FOR
TONIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WOULD HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH RIDGING THE MORE DOMINANT PATTERN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE...ABOUT AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE BASINS. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE WILL BE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MUCH LESS...AND SOME AREAS THAT COULD SEE OVER 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO
MON MORNING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN MON AFT/EVE.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/PW/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM/NV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 312359
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
759 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE IN THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATER ON NEXT
SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL PUSHING OFF EASTERN LI/SE CT SHORTLY.
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SINK SE FROM THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY/SW CT/NE NJ THROUGH THE EVENING AND THIS BOUNDARY COULD
BECOME SEMI- STATIONARY ACROSS LI AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE NYC METRO OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCT CONVECTION AS A
SHORTWAVE AXIS TRAVERSES EASTWARD.

THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS COME TO AND END WITH EARLIER
CONVECTION AND NIGHTFALL STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. ONLY A LOW
THREAT OF ANY STRONG STORMS OVERNIGHT.

MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WOULD
PROMOTE THE THREAT OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS. WITH
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION LESSENING...MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE MINOR
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER AND A SW
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP JUST
TO THE WEST ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS TIME
AROUND...SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK PASSING OVER US. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME...THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT MOVE EAST.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL AS MLCAPES PROBABLY RISE
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS TIME HOWEVER THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR TRAINING OF
CELLS. BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE A THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS
ALOFT FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A
RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH MOST FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. RIDGING
RESUMES THEREAFTER MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WITHOUT A STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO
THIS WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
WEAKENS THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING SATURDAY AND MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATEST
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE VICINITY OF
NYC AND URBAN NORTHEAST NJ ON TUESDAY...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE
SHEAR TO WORK...AROUND 25 TO 35 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED BY MUCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN AROUND 500
TO 2000 J/KG. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...JUST NW OF NYC AS OF 00Z...WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SINK SE AND THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHES MONDAY FROM THE WEST.

MAIN AXIS FOR ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ALONG THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHICH SHOULD PASS SE
OF NYC TERMINALS BY AROUND 04-06Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS
BOUNDARY HANGS UP CLOSE TO KEWR/KJFK AND PARTICULARLY KISP BEFORE
DISSIPATING...WHICH WOULD PROLONG THE THREAT OF SHRA INTO LATE
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST AIRMASS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY
BURN OFF MONDAY MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDS AT NYC/NJ
TERMINALS BY 16Z MON. STRATUS COULD HOLD ON ACROSS EASTERN
TERMINALS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MON
AFT/EVE...PARTICULARLY NYC METRO AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT S/SW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
HOURS...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW FLOW OF AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5FT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS FALL
JUST SHORT OF 5FT...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS
DON`T TOUCH 5FT TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SCA WHICH IS POSTED FOR
TONIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WOULD HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH RIDGING THE MORE DOMINANT PATTERN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE...ABOUT AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE BASINS. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE WILL BE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MUCH LESS...AND SOME AREAS THAT COULD SEE OVER 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO
MON MORNING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN MON AFT/EVE.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/PW/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM/NV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 312232
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
632 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE IN THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATER ON NEXT SATURDAY AND
ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL TRACK EAST...AND A DECREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AS
THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES SOMEWHAT.

AS FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY...BULK SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WBZ/FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE ON
THE HIGH SIDE...SO THE MOST LIKELY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WOULD BE
STRONG WIND GUSTS...WHICH IS WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED TOO WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...AND
BOTH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND OMEGA INCREASING. ADDITIONALLY...THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH
WOULD PROMOTE THE THREAT OF CELL TRAINING. THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH
FLOODING STILL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD AND COULD BE
CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND SOMEWHERE IN OR NEAR THE
CWA. LOCALIZED FLOODING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER AND A SW FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT THE ATLANTIC FACING
BEACHES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP JUST
TO THE WEST ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS TIME
AROUND...SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK PASSING OVER US. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME...THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT MOVE EAST.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL AS MLCAPES PROBABLY RISE
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS TIME HOWEVER THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR TRAINING OF
CELLS. BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE A THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS
ALOFT FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A
RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH MOST FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. RIDGING
RESUMES THEREAFTER MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WITHOUT A STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO
THIS WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
WEAKENS THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING SATURDAY AND MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATEST
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE VICINITY OF
NYC AND URBAN NORTHEAST NJ ON TUESDAY...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE
SHEAR TO WORK...AROUND 25 TO 35 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED BY MUCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN AROUND 500
TO 2000 J/KG. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY FROM THE WEST.

VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT NYC TERMINALS THROUGH 22Z.

THEN A LARGER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH AND LIKELY IMPACT
NYC METRO AROUND THE 22-01Z TIME FRAME. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY THEN
MOVES EAST...WITH MOST TERMINALS IMPACTED.

TOWERING CU...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL MVFR
OR EVEN IFR IN HEAVIER CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED.

ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF MONDAY.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIGHTEN
TO 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON-MON NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE.
MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW FLOW OF AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5FT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS FALL
JUST SHORT OF 5FT...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS
DON`T TOUCH 5FT TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SCA WHICH IS POSTED FOR
TONIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WOULD HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH RIDGING THE MORE DOMINANT PATTERN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE...ABOUT AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE BASINS. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE WILL BE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MUCH LESS...AND SOME AREAS THAT COULD SEE AT LEAST 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...MORE LOCALIZED
FLOODING AS WE OBSERVED EARLIER. ADDITIONALLY...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING COULD OCCUR AT ANY POINT THROUGH MONDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM/PW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 311936
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
336 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE IN THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATER ON NEXT SATURDAY AND
ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY WHILE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSES THROUGH. MLCAPES START MOSTLY IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS LIKELY TONIGHT
WITH BETTER CHANCES OF POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. BULK SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. WBZ/FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE...SO
THE MOST LIKELY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO WITH PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND BOTH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND OMEGA INCREASING.
ADDITIONALLY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WOULD PROMOTE THE THREAT OF CELL TRAINING. THE
LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING STILL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD
AND COULD BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND SOMEWHERE IN OR
NEAR THE CWA...SO NO WATCH WILL BE POSTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER AND A SW FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT THE ATLANTIC FACING
BEACHES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP JUST
TO THE WEST ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS TIME
AROUND...SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK PASSING OVER US. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME...THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT MOVE EAST.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL AS MLCAPES PROBABLY RISE
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS TIME HOWEVER THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR TRAINING OF
CELLS. BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE A THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS
ALOFT FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A
RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH MOST FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. RIDGING
RESUMES THEREAFTER MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WITHOUT A STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO
THIS WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
WEAKENS THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING SATURDAY AND MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATEST
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE VICINITY OF
NYC AND URBAN NORTHEAST NJ ON TUESDAY...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE
SHEAR TO WORK...AROUND 25 TO 35 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED BY MUCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN AROUND 500
TO 2000 J/KG. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY FROM THE WEST.

VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT NYC TERMINALS THROUGH 22Z.

THEN A LARGER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH AND LIKELY IMPACT
NYC METRO AROUND THE 22-01Z TIME FRAME. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY THEN
MOVES EAST...WITH MOST TERMINALS IMPACTED.

TOWERING CU...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL MVFR
OR EVEN IFR IN HEAVIER CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED.

ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF MONDAY.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIGHTEN
TO 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON-MON NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE.
MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW FLOW OF AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5FT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS FALL
JUST SHORT OF 5FT...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS
DON`T TOUCH 5FT TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SCA WHICH IS POSTED FOR
TONIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WOULD HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH RIDGING THE MORE DOMINANT PATTERN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE...ABOUT AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE BASINS. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE WILL BE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MUCH LESS...AND SOME AREAS THAT COULD SEE AT LEAST 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY FLOODING
WOULD OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING COULD OCCUR AT ANY POINT THROUGH MONDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 311936
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
336 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE IN THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATER ON NEXT SATURDAY AND
ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY WHILE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSES THROUGH. MLCAPES START MOSTLY IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS LIKELY TONIGHT
WITH BETTER CHANCES OF POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. BULK SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. WBZ/FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE...SO
THE MOST LIKELY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO WITH PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND BOTH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND OMEGA INCREASING.
ADDITIONALLY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WOULD PROMOTE THE THREAT OF CELL TRAINING. THE
LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING STILL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD
AND COULD BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND SOMEWHERE IN OR
NEAR THE CWA...SO NO WATCH WILL BE POSTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER AND A SW FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT THE ATLANTIC FACING
BEACHES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP JUST
TO THE WEST ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS TIME
AROUND...SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK PASSING OVER US. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME...THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT MOVE EAST.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL AS MLCAPES PROBABLY RISE
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS TIME HOWEVER THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR TRAINING OF
CELLS. BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE A THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS
ALOFT FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A
RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH MOST FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. RIDGING
RESUMES THEREAFTER MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WITHOUT A STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO
THIS WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
WEAKENS THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING SATURDAY AND MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATEST
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE VICINITY OF
NYC AND URBAN NORTHEAST NJ ON TUESDAY...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE
SHEAR TO WORK...AROUND 25 TO 35 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED BY MUCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN AROUND 500
TO 2000 J/KG. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY FROM THE WEST.

VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT NYC TERMINALS THROUGH 22Z.

THEN A LARGER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH AND LIKELY IMPACT
NYC METRO AROUND THE 22-01Z TIME FRAME. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY THEN
MOVES EAST...WITH MOST TERMINALS IMPACTED.

TOWERING CU...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL MVFR
OR EVEN IFR IN HEAVIER CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED.

ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF MONDAY.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIGHTEN
TO 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON-MON NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE.
MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW FLOW OF AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5FT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS FALL
JUST SHORT OF 5FT...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS
DON`T TOUCH 5FT TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SCA WHICH IS POSTED FOR
TONIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WOULD HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH RIDGING THE MORE DOMINANT PATTERN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE...ABOUT AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE BASINS. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE WILL BE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MUCH LESS...AND SOME AREAS THAT COULD SEE AT LEAST 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY FLOODING
WOULD OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING COULD OCCUR AT ANY POINT THROUGH MONDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM







000
FXUS61 KOKX 311731
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
131 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SEND A TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST UPDATED MAINLY TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS TEMPS ROSE FAIRLY QUICKLY UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REST OF THE FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE LAST 24H AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS HAS PASSED TO THE EAST WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THESE LATER TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH A SFC TROF TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF NYC...THEN OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. PW IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG...AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR SUPPORTS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE LINE SEGMENTS AND
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
NYC...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OF CELLS. THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THOUGH SHOWN MORE PROGRESSION SINCE THE PREVIOUS
00Z MODEL SUITE.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 AND HIGHS 80-85 IN MOST SPOTS...WITH SOME
AREAS IN NE NJ AND THE CITY REACHING THE UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK
WITH CLOUD COVER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES...BUT THIS MAY INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFT/EVE CONVECTION
ON MON AS ANOTHER TROF SETS UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN
APPROACHES BY EARLY EVE. THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PW AROUND 2 INCHES WILL KEEP
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT.

HIGHS MON ARE FORECAST TO BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR TO
WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY FROM THE WEST.

VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND NYC THROUGH 21-22Z. MORE OF THE POP UP
VARIETY.

THEN A LARGER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH AND LIKELY IMPACT
NYC METRO AROUND THE 22-01Z TIME FRAME. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY THEN
MOVES EAST...WITH MOST TERMINALS IMPACTED.

TOWERING CU...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL MVFR
OR EVEN IFR IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED.

ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF MONDAY.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIGHTEN
TO 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON-MON NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE.
MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE N AND
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING SLY FLOW. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE WITH SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MON MORNING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS TO LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER
E OF MORICHES INLET...BUT WILL END THE HAZARD AT 10Z FOR NOW. WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO COME CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS EVE.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
SURFACE TROUGHS WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION EACH
AFT/EVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR
FLASH FLOODING. ON AVERAGE...LOOKING FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BASINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 311731
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
131 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SEND A TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST UPDATED MAINLY TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS TEMPS ROSE FAIRLY QUICKLY UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REST OF THE FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE LAST 24H AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS HAS PASSED TO THE EAST WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THESE LATER TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH A SFC TROF TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF NYC...THEN OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. PW IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG...AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR SUPPORTS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE LINE SEGMENTS AND
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
NYC...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OF CELLS. THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THOUGH SHOWN MORE PROGRESSION SINCE THE PREVIOUS
00Z MODEL SUITE.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 AND HIGHS 80-85 IN MOST SPOTS...WITH SOME
AREAS IN NE NJ AND THE CITY REACHING THE UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK
WITH CLOUD COVER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES...BUT THIS MAY INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFT/EVE CONVECTION
ON MON AS ANOTHER TROF SETS UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN
APPROACHES BY EARLY EVE. THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PW AROUND 2 INCHES WILL KEEP
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT.

HIGHS MON ARE FORECAST TO BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR TO
WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY FROM THE WEST.

VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND NYC THROUGH 21-22Z. MORE OF THE POP UP
VARIETY.

THEN A LARGER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH AND LIKELY IMPACT
NYC METRO AROUND THE 22-01Z TIME FRAME. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY THEN
MOVES EAST...WITH MOST TERMINALS IMPACTED.

TOWERING CU...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL MVFR
OR EVEN IFR IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED.

ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF MONDAY.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIGHTEN
TO 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON-MON NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE.
MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE N AND
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING SLY FLOW. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE WITH SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MON MORNING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS TO LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER
E OF MORICHES INLET...BUT WILL END THE HAZARD AT 10Z FOR NOW. WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO COME CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS EVE.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
SURFACE TROUGHS WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION EACH
AFT/EVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR
FLASH FLOODING. ON AVERAGE...LOOKING FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BASINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 311647
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1247 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SEND A TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST UPDATED MAINLY TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS TEMPS ROSE FAIRLY QUICKLY UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REST OF THE FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE LAST 24H AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS HAS PASSED TO THE EAST WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THESE LATER TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH A SFC TROF TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF NYC...THEN OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. PW IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG...AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR SUPPORTS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE LINE SEGMENTS AND
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
NYC...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OF CELLS. THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THOUGH SHOWN MORE PROGRESSION SINCE THE PREVIOUS
00Z MODEL SUITE.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 AND HIGHS 80-85 IN MOST SPOTS...WITH SOME
AREAS IN NE NJ AND THE CITY REACHING THE UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK
WITH CLOUD COVER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES...BUT THIS MAY INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFT/EVE CONVECTION
ON MON AS ANOTHER TROF SETS UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN
APPROACHES BY EARLY EVE. THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PW AROUND 2 INCHES WILL KEEP
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT.

HIGHS MON ARE FORECAST TO BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR TO
WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HZ MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD LOCALLY RESTRICT VSBY TO MVFR IN SPOTS.
SOUTH TO SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...AND A FEW GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY CSTL AND NYC METRO AIRPORTS.

ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTN
BUT CHCS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSTMS LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS
N/W AS TROUGH APPROACHES. TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A FEW HOURS. THESE INCREASING CHCS TRANSLATE EWD DURING THE
EVE. MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION. UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
PROGRESSIVE RAIN IS ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY BE HOLDING ON TO IT TOO
LONG.

MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY WHERE PCPN ENDS AND
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE.
MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE N AND
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING SLY FLOW. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE WITH SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MON MORNING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS TO LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER
E OF MORICHES INLET...BUT WILL END THE HAZARD AT 10Z FOR NOW. WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO COME CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS EVE.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
SURFACE TROUGHS WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION EACH
AFT/EVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR
FLASH FLOODING. ON AVERAGE...LOOKING FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BASINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...24/PW
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 311647
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1247 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SEND A TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST UPDATED MAINLY TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS TEMPS ROSE FAIRLY QUICKLY UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REST OF THE FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE LAST 24H AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS HAS PASSED TO THE EAST WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THESE LATER TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH A SFC TROF TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF NYC...THEN OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. PW IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG...AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR SUPPORTS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE LINE SEGMENTS AND
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
NYC...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OF CELLS. THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THOUGH SHOWN MORE PROGRESSION SINCE THE PREVIOUS
00Z MODEL SUITE.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 AND HIGHS 80-85 IN MOST SPOTS...WITH SOME
AREAS IN NE NJ AND THE CITY REACHING THE UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK
WITH CLOUD COVER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES...BUT THIS MAY INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFT/EVE CONVECTION
ON MON AS ANOTHER TROF SETS UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN
APPROACHES BY EARLY EVE. THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PW AROUND 2 INCHES WILL KEEP
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT.

HIGHS MON ARE FORECAST TO BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR TO
WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HZ MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD LOCALLY RESTRICT VSBY TO MVFR IN SPOTS.
SOUTH TO SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...AND A FEW GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY CSTL AND NYC METRO AIRPORTS.

ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTN
BUT CHCS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSTMS LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS
N/W AS TROUGH APPROACHES. TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A FEW HOURS. THESE INCREASING CHCS TRANSLATE EWD DURING THE
EVE. MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION. UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
PROGRESSIVE RAIN IS ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY BE HOLDING ON TO IT TOO
LONG.

MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY WHERE PCPN ENDS AND
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE.
MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE N AND
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING SLY FLOW. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE WITH SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MON MORNING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS TO LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER
E OF MORICHES INLET...BUT WILL END THE HAZARD AT 10Z FOR NOW. WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO COME CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS EVE.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
SURFACE TROUGHS WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION EACH
AFT/EVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR
FLASH FLOODING. ON AVERAGE...LOOKING FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BASINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...24/PW
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 311437
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1037 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SEND A TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO DELAY ONSET OF SHOWER CHANCES UNTIL THIS
AFTN...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD POP UP BEFORE NOON. ALSO
INTRODUCED PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO SOME OF THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
AREA AS PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE LAST 24H AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS HAS PASSED TO THE EAST WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THESE LATER TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH A SFC TROF TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF NYC...THEN OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. PW IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG...AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR SUPPORTS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE LINE SEGMENTS AND
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
NYC...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OF CELLS. THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THOUGH SHOWN MORE PROGRESSION SINCE THE PREVIOUS
00Z MODEL SUITE.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70. MIGHT NEED TO BUMP
UP HIGHS OVER SOME OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES IF CLOUDS DO NOT FILL
BACK IN AS QUICKLY AS ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK WITH CLOUD
COVER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES...BUT THIS MAY INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFT/EVE CONVECTION
ON MON AS ANOTHER TROF SETS UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN
APPROACHES BY EARLY EVE. THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PW AROUND 2 INCHES WILL KEEP
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT.

HIGHS MON ARE FORECAST TO BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR TO
WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HZ MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD LOCALLY RESTRICT VSBY TO MVFR IN SPOTS.
SOUTH TO SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...AND A FEW GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY CSTL AND NYC METRO AIRPORTS.

ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTN
BUT CHCS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSTMS LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS
N/W AS TROUGH APPROACHES. TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A FEW HOURS. THESE INCREASING CHCS TRANSLATE EWD DURING THE
EVE. MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION. UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
PROGRESSIVE RAIN IS ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY BE HOLDING ON TO IT TOO
LONG.

MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY WHERE PCPN ENDS AND
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE.
MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE N AND
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING SLY FLOW. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE WITH SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MON MORNING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS TO LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER
E OF MORICHES INLET...BUT WILL END THE HAZARD AT 10Z FOR NOW. WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO COME CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS EVE.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
SURFACE TROUGHS WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION EACH
AFT/EVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR
FLASH FLOODING. ON AVERAGE...LOOKING FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BASINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...24/PW
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 311437
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1037 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SEND A TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO DELAY ONSET OF SHOWER CHANCES UNTIL THIS
AFTN...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD POP UP BEFORE NOON. ALSO
INTRODUCED PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO SOME OF THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
AREA AS PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE LAST 24H AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS HAS PASSED TO THE EAST WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THESE LATER TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH A SFC TROF TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF NYC...THEN OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. PW IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG...AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR SUPPORTS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE LINE SEGMENTS AND
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
NYC...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OF CELLS. THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THOUGH SHOWN MORE PROGRESSION SINCE THE PREVIOUS
00Z MODEL SUITE.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70. MIGHT NEED TO BUMP
UP HIGHS OVER SOME OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES IF CLOUDS DO NOT FILL
BACK IN AS QUICKLY AS ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK WITH CLOUD
COVER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES...BUT THIS MAY INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFT/EVE CONVECTION
ON MON AS ANOTHER TROF SETS UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN
APPROACHES BY EARLY EVE. THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PW AROUND 2 INCHES WILL KEEP
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT.

HIGHS MON ARE FORECAST TO BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR TO
WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HZ MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD LOCALLY RESTRICT VSBY TO MVFR IN SPOTS.
SOUTH TO SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...AND A FEW GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY CSTL AND NYC METRO AIRPORTS.

ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTN
BUT CHCS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSTMS LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS
N/W AS TROUGH APPROACHES. TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A FEW HOURS. THESE INCREASING CHCS TRANSLATE EWD DURING THE
EVE. MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION. UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
PROGRESSIVE RAIN IS ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY BE HOLDING ON TO IT TOO
LONG.

MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY WHERE PCPN ENDS AND
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE.
MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE N AND
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING SLY FLOW. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE WITH SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MON MORNING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS TO LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER
E OF MORICHES INLET...BUT WILL END THE HAZARD AT 10Z FOR NOW. WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO COME CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS EVE.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
SURFACE TROUGHS WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION EACH
AFT/EVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR
FLASH FLOODING. ON AVERAGE...LOOKING FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BASINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...24/PW
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 311152
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
752 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SEND A TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW SHOWERS POPPED UP ACROSS NRN NJ BUT SINCE HAVE DISSIPATED.
THIS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE LAST 24H AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS HAS PASSED TO THE EAST WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THESE LATER TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH A SFC TROF TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES. LATEST DAY
1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS ALSO INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NY METRO AREA...FROM NYC AND POINTS
NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL
RESIDE.

HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF NYC...THEN OVERSPREADING THE
REST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. PW IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES...MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYERED
SHEAR SUPPORTS ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE LINE SEGMENTS
AND STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
NYC...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OF CELLS. THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHOW MORE PROGRESSION THAN 24H AGO THOUGH.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70. PREFERRED THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER TODAY.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THERE BE SOME BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
DEGREES CAN EASILY BE ADDED TO THESE HIGHS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR BELOW THE 70
DEGREE MARK WITH CLOUD COVER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES...BUT THIS MAY INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFT/EVE CONVECTION
ON MON AS ANOTHER TROF SETS UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN
APPROACHES BY EARLY EVE. THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PW AROUND 2 INCHES WILL KEEP
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT.

HIGHS MON ARE FORECAST TO BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR TO
WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT BACK TO VFR THIS MORNING WHERE IT SHOULD
REMAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. TIMING MAY BE OFF 1-2 HOURS.
HZ MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND COULD LOCALLY RESTRICT VSBY TO MVFR
IN SPOTS.

ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTN
BUT CHCS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSTMS LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS
N/W AS TROUGH APPROACHES. TIMING OF MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A FEW
HOURS. THESE INCREASING CHCS TRANSLATE EWD DURING THE EVE. MVFR TO
LOCALLY IFR POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION. UNCERTAINTY IN HOW PROGRESSIVE
RAIN IS ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY BE HOLDING ON TO IT TOO LONG.

MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY WHERE PCPN ENDS AND
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE.
MVFR STATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE N AND
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING SLY FLOW. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE WITH SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MON MORNING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS TO LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER
E OF MORICHES INLET...BUT WILL END THE HAZARD AT 10Z FOR NOW. WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO COME CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS EVE.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
SURFACE TROUGHS WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION EACH
AFT/EVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR
FLASH FLOODING. ON AVERAGE...LOOKING FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BASINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 311152
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
752 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SEND A TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW SHOWERS POPPED UP ACROSS NRN NJ BUT SINCE HAVE DISSIPATED.
THIS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE LAST 24H AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS HAS PASSED TO THE EAST WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THESE LATER TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH A SFC TROF TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES. LATEST DAY
1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS ALSO INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NY METRO AREA...FROM NYC AND POINTS
NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL
RESIDE.

HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF NYC...THEN OVERSPREADING THE
REST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. PW IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES...MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYERED
SHEAR SUPPORTS ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE LINE SEGMENTS
AND STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
NYC...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OF CELLS. THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHOW MORE PROGRESSION THAN 24H AGO THOUGH.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70. PREFERRED THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER TODAY.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THERE BE SOME BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
DEGREES CAN EASILY BE ADDED TO THESE HIGHS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR BELOW THE 70
DEGREE MARK WITH CLOUD COVER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES...BUT THIS MAY INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFT/EVE CONVECTION
ON MON AS ANOTHER TROF SETS UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN
APPROACHES BY EARLY EVE. THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PW AROUND 2 INCHES WILL KEEP
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT.

HIGHS MON ARE FORECAST TO BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR TO
WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT BACK TO VFR THIS MORNING WHERE IT SHOULD
REMAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. TIMING MAY BE OFF 1-2 HOURS.
HZ MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND COULD LOCALLY RESTRICT VSBY TO MVFR
IN SPOTS.

ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTN
BUT CHCS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSTMS LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS
N/W AS TROUGH APPROACHES. TIMING OF MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A FEW
HOURS. THESE INCREASING CHCS TRANSLATE EWD DURING THE EVE. MVFR TO
LOCALLY IFR POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION. UNCERTAINTY IN HOW PROGRESSIVE
RAIN IS ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY BE HOLDING ON TO IT TOO LONG.

MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY WHERE PCPN ENDS AND
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE.
MVFR STATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE N AND
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING SLY FLOW. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE WITH SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MON MORNING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS TO LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER
E OF MORICHES INLET...BUT WILL END THE HAZARD AT 10Z FOR NOW. WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO COME CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS EVE.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
SURFACE TROUGHS WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION EACH
AFT/EVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR
FLASH FLOODING. ON AVERAGE...LOOKING FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BASINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 311052
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
652 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SEND A TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW SHOWERS POPPED UP ACROSS NRN NJ BUT SINCE HAVE DISSIPATED.
THIS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE LAST 24H AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS HAS PASSED TO THE EAST WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THESE LATER TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH A SFC TROF TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES. LATEST DAY
1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS ALSO INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NY METRO AREA...FROM NYC AND POINTS
NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL
RESIDE.

HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF NYC...THEN OVERSPREADING THE
REST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. PW IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES...MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYERED
SHEAR SUPPORTS ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE LINE SEGMENTS
AND STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
NYC...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OF CELLS. THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHOW MORE PROGRESSION THAN 24H AGO THOUGH.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70. PREFERRED THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER TODAY.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THERE BE SOME BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
DEGREES CAN EASILY BE ADDED TO THESE HIGHS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR BELOW THE 70
DEGREE MARK WITH CLOUD COVER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES...BUT THIS MAY INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFT/EVE CONVECTION
ON MON AS ANOTHER TROF SETS UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN
APPROACHES BY EARLY EVE. THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PW AROUND 2 INCHES WILL KEEP
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT.

HIGHS MON ARE FORECAST TO BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR TO
WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS ARE DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY IFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. HEATING SHOULD RAISE CIGS TO VFR IN
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTN
BUT CHCS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSTMS LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS
N/W AS TROUGH APPROACHES. TIMING OF MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A FEW
HOURS. THESE INCREASING CHCS TRANSLATE EWD DURING THE EVE. END
TIME OF RAIN IS UNCERTAIN AND MAY BE HOLDING ON TO IT TOO LONG.

MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS
REMAINING IN PLACE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUN NIGHT-MON...NUMEROUS SHRA/EMBEDDED TSTMS AND OCNL MVFR
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS TERMINALS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE. MVFR
STATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE N AND
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING SLY FLOW. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE WITH SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MON MORNING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS TO LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER
E OF MORICHES INLET...BUT WILL END THE HAZARD AT 10Z FOR NOW. WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO COME CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS EVE.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
SURFACE TROUGHS WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION EACH
AFT/EVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR
FLASH FLOODING. ON AVERAGE...LOOKING FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BASINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 311052
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
652 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SEND A TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW SHOWERS POPPED UP ACROSS NRN NJ BUT SINCE HAVE DISSIPATED.
THIS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE LAST 24H AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS HAS PASSED TO THE EAST WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THESE LATER TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH A SFC TROF TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES. LATEST DAY
1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS ALSO INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NY METRO AREA...FROM NYC AND POINTS
NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL
RESIDE.

HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF NYC...THEN OVERSPREADING THE
REST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. PW IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES...MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYERED
SHEAR SUPPORTS ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE LINE SEGMENTS
AND STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
NYC...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OF CELLS. THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHOW MORE PROGRESSION THAN 24H AGO THOUGH.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70. PREFERRED THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER TODAY.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THERE BE SOME BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
DEGREES CAN EASILY BE ADDED TO THESE HIGHS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR BELOW THE 70
DEGREE MARK WITH CLOUD COVER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES...BUT THIS MAY INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFT/EVE CONVECTION
ON MON AS ANOTHER TROF SETS UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN
APPROACHES BY EARLY EVE. THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PW AROUND 2 INCHES WILL KEEP
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT.

HIGHS MON ARE FORECAST TO BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR TO
WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS ARE DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY IFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. HEATING SHOULD RAISE CIGS TO VFR IN
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTN
BUT CHCS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSTMS LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS
N/W AS TROUGH APPROACHES. TIMING OF MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A FEW
HOURS. THESE INCREASING CHCS TRANSLATE EWD DURING THE EVE. END
TIME OF RAIN IS UNCERTAIN AND MAY BE HOLDING ON TO IT TOO LONG.

MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS
REMAINING IN PLACE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUN NIGHT-MON...NUMEROUS SHRA/EMBEDDED TSTMS AND OCNL MVFR
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS TERMINALS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE. MVFR
STATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE N AND
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING SLY FLOW. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE WITH SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MON MORNING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS TO LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER
E OF MORICHES INLET...BUT WILL END THE HAZARD AT 10Z FOR NOW. WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO COME CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS EVE.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
SURFACE TROUGHS WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION EACH
AFT/EVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR
FLASH FLOODING. ON AVERAGE...LOOKING FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BASINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 310842
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
442 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SEND A TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE LAST 24H AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS HAS PASSED TO THE EAST WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THESE LATER TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH A SFC TROF TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES. LATEST DAY
1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS ALSO INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NY METRO AREA...FROM NYC AND POINTS
NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL
RESIDE.

HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF NYC...THEN OVERSPREADING THE
REST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. PW IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES...MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYERED
SHEAR SUPPORTS ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE LINE SEGMENTS
AND STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
NYC...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OF CELLS. THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHOW MORE PROGRESSION THAN 24H AGO THOUGH.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70. PREFERRED THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER TODAY.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THERE BE SOME BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
DEGREES CAN EASILY BE ADDED TO THESE HIGHS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR BELOW THE 70
DEGREE MARK WITH CLOUD COVER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES...BUT THIS MAY INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFT/EVE CONVECTION
ON MON AS ANOTHER TROF SETS UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN
APPROACHES BY EARLY EVE. THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PW AROUND 2 INCHES WILL KEEP
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT.

HIGHS MON ARE FORECAST TO BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR TO
WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS ARE DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY IFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. HEATING SHOULD RAISE CIGS TO VFR IN
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTN
BUT CHCS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSTMS LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS
N/W AS TROUGH APPROACHES. TIMING OF MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A FEW
HOURS. THESE INCREASING CHCS TRANSLATE EWD DURING THE EVE. END
TIME OF RAIN IS UNCERTAIN AND MAY BE HOLDING ON TO IT TOO LONG.

MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS
REMAINING IN PLACE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUN NIGHT-MON...NUMEROUS SHRA/EMBEDDED TSTMS AND OCNL MVFR
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS TERMINALS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE. MVFR
STATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE N AND
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING SLY FLOW. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE WITH SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MON MORNING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS TO LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER
E OF MORICHES INLET...BUT WILL END THE HAZARD AT 10Z FOR NOW. WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO COME CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS EVE.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
SURFACE TROUGHS WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION EACH
AFT/EVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR
FLASH FLOODING. ON AVERAGE...LOOKING FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BASINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW










000
FXUS61 KOKX 310842
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
442 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SEND A TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE LAST 24H AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS HAS PASSED TO THE EAST WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THESE LATER TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH A SFC TROF TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES. LATEST DAY
1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS ALSO INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NY METRO AREA...FROM NYC AND POINTS
NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL
RESIDE.

HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF NYC...THEN OVERSPREADING THE
REST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. PW IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES...MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYERED
SHEAR SUPPORTS ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE LINE SEGMENTS
AND STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
NYC...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OF CELLS. THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHOW MORE PROGRESSION THAN 24H AGO THOUGH.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70. PREFERRED THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER TODAY.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THERE BE SOME BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
DEGREES CAN EASILY BE ADDED TO THESE HIGHS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR BELOW THE 70
DEGREE MARK WITH CLOUD COVER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES...BUT THIS MAY INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFT/EVE CONVECTION
ON MON AS ANOTHER TROF SETS UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN
APPROACHES BY EARLY EVE. THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PW AROUND 2 INCHES WILL KEEP
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT.

HIGHS MON ARE FORECAST TO BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR TO
WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS ARE DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY IFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. HEATING SHOULD RAISE CIGS TO VFR IN
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTN
BUT CHCS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSTMS LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS
N/W AS TROUGH APPROACHES. TIMING OF MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A FEW
HOURS. THESE INCREASING CHCS TRANSLATE EWD DURING THE EVE. END
TIME OF RAIN IS UNCERTAIN AND MAY BE HOLDING ON TO IT TOO LONG.

MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS
REMAINING IN PLACE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUN NIGHT-MON...NUMEROUS SHRA/EMBEDDED TSTMS AND OCNL MVFR
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS TERMINALS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE. MVFR
STATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE N AND
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING SLY FLOW. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE WITH SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MON MORNING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS TO LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER
E OF MORICHES INLET...BUT WILL END THE HAZARD AT 10Z FOR NOW. WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO COME CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS EVE.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
SURFACE TROUGHS WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION EACH
AFT/EVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR
FLASH FLOODING. ON AVERAGE...LOOKING FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BASINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 310816
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
416 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SEND A TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE LAST 24H AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS HAS PASSED TO THE EAST WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THESE LATER TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH A SFC TROF TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES. LATEST DAY
1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS ALSO INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NY METRO AREA...FROM NYC AND POINTS
NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL
RESIDE.

HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF NYC...THEN OVERSPREADING THE
REST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. PWS IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES...MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYERED
SHEAR SUPPORTS ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE LINE SEGMENTS
AND STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
NYC...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OF CELLS. THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHOW MORE PROGRESSION THAN 24H AGO.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70. PREFERRED THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER TODAY.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THERE BE SOME BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
DEGREES CAN EASILY BE ADDED TO THESE HIGHS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR BELOW THE 70
DEGREE MARK WITH CLOUD COVER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFT/EVE CONVECTION
ON MON AS ANOTHER TROF SETS UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN
APPROACHES BY EARLY EVE. THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PWS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL KEEP
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT.

HIGHS MON ARE FORECAST TO BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR TO
WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART OVERNIGHT
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY.

VFR CIGS TO START GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW
MVFR/LOCALLY IFR CIGS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT/SUN AM. HEATING SHOULD
RAISE CIGS TO VFR IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES SUN
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSTMS LATE
AFTN/EVE MAINLY FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS N/W AS TROUGH
APPROACHES. TIMING MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A FEW HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUN NIGHT-MON...NUMEROUS SHRA/EMBEDDED TSTMS AND OCNL MVFR
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS TERMINALS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE. MVFR
STATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE N AND
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING SLY FLOW TODAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE WITH SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MON MORNING. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS TO LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER E OF MORICHES
INLET...BUT WILL END THE HAZARD AT 10Z FOR NOW. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO
COME CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS EVE.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
SURFACE TROUGHS WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION EACH
AFT/EVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR
FLASH FLOODING. ON AVERAGE...LOOKING FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BASINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.


&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 310816
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
416 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SEND A TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE LAST 24H AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS HAS PASSED TO THE EAST WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THESE LATER TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH A SFC TROF TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES. LATEST DAY
1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS ALSO INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NY METRO AREA...FROM NYC AND POINTS
NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL
RESIDE.

HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF NYC...THEN OVERSPREADING THE
REST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. PWS IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES...MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYERED
SHEAR SUPPORTS ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE LINE SEGMENTS
AND STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
NYC...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OF CELLS. THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHOW MORE PROGRESSION THAN 24H AGO.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70. PREFERRED THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER TODAY.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THERE BE SOME BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
DEGREES CAN EASILY BE ADDED TO THESE HIGHS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR BELOW THE 70
DEGREE MARK WITH CLOUD COVER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFT/EVE CONVECTION
ON MON AS ANOTHER TROF SETS UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN
APPROACHES BY EARLY EVE. THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PWS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL KEEP
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT.

HIGHS MON ARE FORECAST TO BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR TO
WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART OVERNIGHT
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY.

VFR CIGS TO START GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW
MVFR/LOCALLY IFR CIGS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT/SUN AM. HEATING SHOULD
RAISE CIGS TO VFR IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES SUN
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSTMS LATE
AFTN/EVE MAINLY FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS N/W AS TROUGH
APPROACHES. TIMING MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A FEW HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUN NIGHT-MON...NUMEROUS SHRA/EMBEDDED TSTMS AND OCNL MVFR
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS TERMINALS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE. MVFR
STATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE N AND
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING SLY FLOW TODAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE WITH SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MON MORNING. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS TO LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER E OF MORICHES
INLET...BUT WILL END THE HAZARD AT 10Z FOR NOW. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO
COME CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS EVE.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
SURFACE TROUGHS WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION EACH
AFT/EVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR
FLASH FLOODING. ON AVERAGE...LOOKING FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BASINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.


&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 310609
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
209 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO EASTERN CANADA...SENDING A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WEAKENS
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
LEAVE BEHIND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ALOFT...LARGE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AS A
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS...WARM AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. DEW POINT INCREASE PER MOS AS SOUTH FLOW
PERSISTS. LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S PER MOS BLEND FOLLOWED.

HIGH RES MODELS SIGNALING POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER WITH THETA-E ADVECTION AND A
WEAK VORT MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME AS SHORTWAVE MOVES WELL
TO THE NORTH...WITH RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. PLENTY OF CLOUDS
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...OR CLOSE TO 200
PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.

MARGINAL TO MODERATE SHEAR IS PRESENT...WITH KI RIGHT AROUND 35C.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP PROBABILITY
WORDING...SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. BEST TIMING IS LATE AFTERNOON WESTERN ZONES...AND THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CSTL AND ERN ZONES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY WITH REGARD TO HEAVIER SHOWER/TSTM
LOCATION...DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY AND VARYING
PLACEMENTS OF EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES. SFC TROUGH APPROACHING
TO THE WEST SHOULD TRIGGER ACTIVITY.

AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME. THE THREAT WILL BE URBAN...WITH PERHAPS FLASHIER
STREAMS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE...COUNTY GUIDANCE
LIKELY TOO HIGH OUTSIDE OF METRO.

WARM TEMPS IN THE 80S SUNDAY...WITH WARM UPPER 60S TO 70S SUNDAY
NIGHT LOWS. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND...WHICH INCLUDED ECS NUMBERS.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT THIS MAY INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RESULTANT WINDS
WAVES...INTERACTING WITH A BACKGROUND LONG PERIOD SE SWELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON MONDAY WITH THE INSTABILITY AND REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES DECREASING BY LATE IN
THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ESTIMATING THESE TO BE MORE OF THE
PULSE VARIETY WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BULK SHEAR
0-6KM MOSTLY 20-25 KT WITH CAPE BEING THE GREATER DRIVER FOR
CONVECTION. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE
MORE SHEAR TO WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART OVERNIGHT
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY.

VFR CIGS TO START GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW
MVFR/LOCALLY IFR CIGS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT/SUN AM. HEATING SHOULD
RAISE CIGS TO VFR IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES SUN
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSTMS LATE
AFTN/EVE MAINLY FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS N/W AS TROUGH
APPROACHES. TIMING MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A FEW HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUN NIGHT-MON...NUMEROUS SHRA/EMBEDDED TSTMS AND OCNL MVFR
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS TERMINALS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE. MVFR
STATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FURTHER TO
THE EAST.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 25 KTS ON
THE WATERS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA AT THIS TIME PER SURROUNDING
OFFICE COLLAB. SEAS BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THESE INCREASING
WINDS...AND MAY COME CLOSE TO 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
OF MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND EARLY
MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT DISSIPATING WITHIN THE REGION. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH TROF APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE
TO POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING.

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES MONDAY. THIS WILL POSE
A FLOODING THREAT VARYING FROM POSSIBLE MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING TO SOME POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
S





000
FXUS61 KOKX 310609
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
209 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO EASTERN CANADA...SENDING A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WEAKENS
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
LEAVE BEHIND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ALOFT...LARGE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AS A
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS...WARM AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. DEW POINT INCREASE PER MOS AS SOUTH FLOW
PERSISTS. LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S PER MOS BLEND FOLLOWED.

HIGH RES MODELS SIGNALING POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER WITH THETA-E ADVECTION AND A
WEAK VORT MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME AS SHORTWAVE MOVES WELL
TO THE NORTH...WITH RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. PLENTY OF CLOUDS
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...OR CLOSE TO 200
PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.

MARGINAL TO MODERATE SHEAR IS PRESENT...WITH KI RIGHT AROUND 35C.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP PROBABILITY
WORDING...SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. BEST TIMING IS LATE AFTERNOON WESTERN ZONES...AND THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CSTL AND ERN ZONES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY WITH REGARD TO HEAVIER SHOWER/TSTM
LOCATION...DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY AND VARYING
PLACEMENTS OF EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES. SFC TROUGH APPROACHING
TO THE WEST SHOULD TRIGGER ACTIVITY.

AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME. THE THREAT WILL BE URBAN...WITH PERHAPS FLASHIER
STREAMS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE...COUNTY GUIDANCE
LIKELY TOO HIGH OUTSIDE OF METRO.

WARM TEMPS IN THE 80S SUNDAY...WITH WARM UPPER 60S TO 70S SUNDAY
NIGHT LOWS. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND...WHICH INCLUDED ECS NUMBERS.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT THIS MAY INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RESULTANT WINDS
WAVES...INTERACTING WITH A BACKGROUND LONG PERIOD SE SWELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON MONDAY WITH THE INSTABILITY AND REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES DECREASING BY LATE IN
THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ESTIMATING THESE TO BE MORE OF THE
PULSE VARIETY WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BULK SHEAR
0-6KM MOSTLY 20-25 KT WITH CAPE BEING THE GREATER DRIVER FOR
CONVECTION. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE
MORE SHEAR TO WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART OVERNIGHT
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY.

VFR CIGS TO START GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW
MVFR/LOCALLY IFR CIGS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT/SUN AM. HEATING SHOULD
RAISE CIGS TO VFR IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES SUN
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSTMS LATE
AFTN/EVE MAINLY FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS N/W AS TROUGH
APPROACHES. TIMING MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A FEW HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUN NIGHT-MON...NUMEROUS SHRA/EMBEDDED TSTMS AND OCNL MVFR
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS TERMINALS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE. MVFR
STATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FURTHER TO
THE EAST.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 25 KTS ON
THE WATERS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA AT THIS TIME PER SURROUNDING
OFFICE COLLAB. SEAS BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THESE INCREASING
WINDS...AND MAY COME CLOSE TO 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
OF MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND EARLY
MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT DISSIPATING WITHIN THE REGION. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH TROF APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE
TO POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING.

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES MONDAY. THIS WILL POSE
A FLOODING THREAT VARYING FROM POSSIBLE MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING TO SOME POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
S






000
FXUS61 KOKX 310246
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1046 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO EASTERN CANADA...SENDING A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WEAKENS
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
LEAVE BEHIND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ALOFT...LARGE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AS A
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS...WARM AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. DEW POINT INCREASE PER MOS AS SOUTH FLOW
PERSISTS. LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S PER MOS BLEND FOLLOWED.

HIGH RES MODELS SIGNALLING POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER WITH THETA-E ADVECTION AND A
WEAK VORT MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME AS SHORTWAVE MOVES WELL
TO THE NORTH...WITH RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. PLENTY OF CLOUDS
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...OR CLOSE TO 200
PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.

MARGINAL TO MODERATE SHEAR IS PRESENT...WITH KI RIGHT AROUND 35C.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP PROBABILITY
WORDING...SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. BEST TIMING IS LATE AFTERNOON WESTERN ZONES...AND THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CSTL AND ERN ZONES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY WITH REGARD TO HEAVIER SHOWER/TSTM
LOCATION...DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY AND VARYING
PLACEMENTS OF EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES. SFC TROUGH APPROACHING
TO THE WEST SHOULD TRIGGER ACTIVITY.

AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME. THE THREAT WILL BE URBAN...WITH PERHAPS FLASHIER
STREAMS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE...COUNTY GUIDANCE
LIKELY TOO HIGH OUTSIDE OF METRO.

WARM TEMPS IN THE 80S SUNDAY...WITH WARM UPPER 60S TO 70S SUNDAY
NIGHT LOWS. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND...WHICH INCLUDED ECS NUMBERS.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT THIS MAY INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RESULTANT WINDS
WAVES...INTERACTING WITH A BACKGROUND LONG PERIOD SE SWELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON MONDAY WITH THE INSTABILITY AND REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES DECREASING BY LATE IN
THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ESTIMATING THESE TO BE MORE OF THE
PULSE VARIETY WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BULK SHEAR
0-6KM MOSTLY 20-25 KT WITH CAPE BEING THE GREATER DRIVER FOR
CONVECTION. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE
MORE SHEAR TO WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
SUNDAY.

VFR CIGS THIS EVENING LIKELY TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW MVFR/LOCALLY IFR CIGS LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT/SUN AM. HEATING SHOULD RAISE CIGS TO VFR IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES SUN
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSTMS LATE
AFTN/EVE MAINLY FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS N/W AS TROUGH
APPROACHES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUN NIGHT-MON...NUMEROUS SHRA/EMBEDDED TSTMS AND OCNL MVFR
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS TERMINALS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE. MVFR
STATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FURTHER TO
THE EAST.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 25 KTS ON
THE WATERS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA AT THIS TIME PER SURROUNDING
OFFICE COLLAB. SEAS BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THESE INCREASING
WINDS...AND MAY COME CLOSE TO 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
OF MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND EARLY
MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT DISSIPATING WITHIN THE REGION. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH TROF APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE
TO POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING.

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES MONDAY. THIS WILL POSE
A FLOODING THREAT VARYING FROM POSSIBLE MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING TO SOME POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/PW
NEAR TERM...JM/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/PW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 310246
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1046 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO EASTERN CANADA...SENDING A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WEAKENS
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
LEAVE BEHIND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ALOFT...LARGE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AS A
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS...WARM AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. DEW POINT INCREASE PER MOS AS SOUTH FLOW
PERSISTS. LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S PER MOS BLEND FOLLOWED.

HIGH RES MODELS SIGNALLING POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER WITH THETA-E ADVECTION AND A
WEAK VORT MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME AS SHORTWAVE MOVES WELL
TO THE NORTH...WITH RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. PLENTY OF CLOUDS
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...OR CLOSE TO 200
PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.

MARGINAL TO MODERATE SHEAR IS PRESENT...WITH KI RIGHT AROUND 35C.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP PROBABILITY
WORDING...SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. BEST TIMING IS LATE AFTERNOON WESTERN ZONES...AND THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CSTL AND ERN ZONES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY WITH REGARD TO HEAVIER SHOWER/TSTM
LOCATION...DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY AND VARYING
PLACEMENTS OF EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES. SFC TROUGH APPROACHING
TO THE WEST SHOULD TRIGGER ACTIVITY.

AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME. THE THREAT WILL BE URBAN...WITH PERHAPS FLASHIER
STREAMS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE...COUNTY GUIDANCE
LIKELY TOO HIGH OUTSIDE OF METRO.

WARM TEMPS IN THE 80S SUNDAY...WITH WARM UPPER 60S TO 70S SUNDAY
NIGHT LOWS. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND...WHICH INCLUDED ECS NUMBERS.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT THIS MAY INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RESULTANT WINDS
WAVES...INTERACTING WITH A BACKGROUND LONG PERIOD SE SWELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON MONDAY WITH THE INSTABILITY AND REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES DECREASING BY LATE IN
THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ESTIMATING THESE TO BE MORE OF THE
PULSE VARIETY WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BULK SHEAR
0-6KM MOSTLY 20-25 KT WITH CAPE BEING THE GREATER DRIVER FOR
CONVECTION. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE
MORE SHEAR TO WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
SUNDAY.

VFR CIGS THIS EVENING LIKELY TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW MVFR/LOCALLY IFR CIGS LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT/SUN AM. HEATING SHOULD RAISE CIGS TO VFR IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES SUN
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSTMS LATE
AFTN/EVE MAINLY FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS N/W AS TROUGH
APPROACHES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUN NIGHT-MON...NUMEROUS SHRA/EMBEDDED TSTMS AND OCNL MVFR
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS TERMINALS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE. MVFR
STATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FURTHER TO
THE EAST.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 25 KTS ON
THE WATERS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA AT THIS TIME PER SURROUNDING
OFFICE COLLAB. SEAS BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THESE INCREASING
WINDS...AND MAY COME CLOSE TO 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
OF MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND EARLY
MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT DISSIPATING WITHIN THE REGION. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH TROF APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE
TO POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING.

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES MONDAY. THIS WILL POSE
A FLOODING THREAT VARYING FROM POSSIBLE MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING TO SOME POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/PW
NEAR TERM...JM/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/PW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 302357
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
757 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO EASTERN CANADA...SENDING A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WEAKENS
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
LEAVE BEHIND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS.

ALOFT...LARGE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AS A
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

PLENTY OF SC DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE UNDERNEATH INVERSION WILL
RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE FROM THE WEST.

AS SUCH...PLENTY OF CLOUDS...WARM AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. DEW POINT INCREASE PER MOS AS SOUTH FLOW
PERSISTS. LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S PER MOS BLEND FOLLOWED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME AS SHORTWAVE MOVES WELL
TO THE NORTH...WITH RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. PLENTY OF CLOUDS
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...OR CLOSE TO 200
PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.

MARGINAL TO MODERATE SHEAR IS PRESENT...WITH KI RIGHT AROUND 35C.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP PROBABILITY
WORDING...SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. BEST TIMING IS LATE AFTERNOON WESTERN ZONES...AND THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CSTL AND ERN ZONES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY WITH REGARD TO HEAVIER SHOWER/TSTM
LOCATION...DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY AND VARYING
PLACEMENTS OF EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES. SFC TROUGH APPROACHING
TO THE WEST SHOULD TRIGGER ACTIVITY.

AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME. THE THREAT WILL BE URBAN...WITH PERHAPS FLASHIER
STREAMS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE...COUNTY GUIDANCE
LIKELY TOO HIGH OUTSIDE OF METRO.

WARM TEMPS IN THE 80S SUNDAY...WITH WARM UPPER 60S TO 70S SUNDAY
NIGHT LOWS. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND...WHICH INCLUDED ECS NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON MONDAY WITH THE INSTABILITY AND REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES DECREASING BY LATE IN
THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ESTIMATING THESE TO BE MORE OF THE
PULSE VARIETY WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BULK SHEAR
0-6KM MOSTLY 20-25 KT WITH CAPE BEING THE GREATER DRIVER FOR
CONVECTION. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE
MORE SHEAR TO WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
SUNDAY.

VFR CIGS THIS EVENING LIKELY TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW MVFR/LOCALLY IFR CIGS LATE NIGHT/SUN AM. HEATING
SHOULD RAISE CIGS TO VFR IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES SUN
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSTMS LATE
AFTN/EVE MAINLY FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS N/W AS TROUGH
APPROACHES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUN NIGHT-MON...NUMEROUS SHRA/EMBEDDED TSTMS AND OCNL MVFR
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS TERMINALS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE. MVFR
STATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FURTHER TO
THE EAST.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 25 KTS ON
THE WATERS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA AT THIS TIME PER SURROUNDING
OFFICE COLLAB. SEAS BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THESE INCREASING
WINDS...AND MAY COME CLOSE TO 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
OF MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND EARLY
MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT DISSIPATING WITHIN THE REGION. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH TROF APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE
TO POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING.

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES MONDAY. THIS WILL POSE
A FLOODING THREAT VARYING FROM POSSIBLE MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING TO SOME POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/PW
NEAR TERM...JM/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/PW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 302357
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
757 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO EASTERN CANADA...SENDING A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WEAKENS
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
LEAVE BEHIND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS.

ALOFT...LARGE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AS A
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

PLENTY OF SC DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE UNDERNEATH INVERSION WILL
RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE FROM THE WEST.

AS SUCH...PLENTY OF CLOUDS...WARM AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. DEW POINT INCREASE PER MOS AS SOUTH FLOW
PERSISTS. LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S PER MOS BLEND FOLLOWED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME AS SHORTWAVE MOVES WELL
TO THE NORTH...WITH RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. PLENTY OF CLOUDS
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...OR CLOSE TO 200
PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.

MARGINAL TO MODERATE SHEAR IS PRESENT...WITH KI RIGHT AROUND 35C.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP PROBABILITY
WORDING...SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. BEST TIMING IS LATE AFTERNOON WESTERN ZONES...AND THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CSTL AND ERN ZONES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY WITH REGARD TO HEAVIER SHOWER/TSTM
LOCATION...DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY AND VARYING
PLACEMENTS OF EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES. SFC TROUGH APPROACHING
TO THE WEST SHOULD TRIGGER ACTIVITY.

AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME. THE THREAT WILL BE URBAN...WITH PERHAPS FLASHIER
STREAMS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE...COUNTY GUIDANCE
LIKELY TOO HIGH OUTSIDE OF METRO.

WARM TEMPS IN THE 80S SUNDAY...WITH WARM UPPER 60S TO 70S SUNDAY
NIGHT LOWS. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND...WHICH INCLUDED ECS NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON MONDAY WITH THE INSTABILITY AND REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES DECREASING BY LATE IN
THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ESTIMATING THESE TO BE MORE OF THE
PULSE VARIETY WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BULK SHEAR
0-6KM MOSTLY 20-25 KT WITH CAPE BEING THE GREATER DRIVER FOR
CONVECTION. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE
MORE SHEAR TO WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
SUNDAY.

VFR CIGS THIS EVENING LIKELY TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW MVFR/LOCALLY IFR CIGS LATE NIGHT/SUN AM. HEATING
SHOULD RAISE CIGS TO VFR IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES SUN
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSTMS LATE
AFTN/EVE MAINLY FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS N/W AS TROUGH
APPROACHES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUN NIGHT-MON...NUMEROUS SHRA/EMBEDDED TSTMS AND OCNL MVFR
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS TERMINALS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE. MVFR
STATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FURTHER TO
THE EAST.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 25 KTS ON
THE WATERS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA AT THIS TIME PER SURROUNDING
OFFICE COLLAB. SEAS BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THESE INCREASING
WINDS...AND MAY COME CLOSE TO 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
OF MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND EARLY
MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT DISSIPATING WITHIN THE REGION. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH TROF APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE
TO POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING.

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES MONDAY. THIS WILL POSE
A FLOODING THREAT VARYING FROM POSSIBLE MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING TO SOME POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/PW
NEAR TERM...JM/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/PW










000
FXUS61 KOKX 301959
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO EASTERN CANADA...SENDING A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAVE A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY
WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ALOFT...LARGE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AS A
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

PLENTY OF SC DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE UNDERNEATH INVERSION WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE FROM THE WEST.

AS SUCH...PLENTY OF CLOUDS...WARM AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. DEW POINT INCREASE PER MOS AS SOUTH FLOW
PERSISTS. LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S PER MOS BLEND FOLLOWED.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME AS SHORTWAVE MOVES WELL
TO THE NORTH...WITH RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. PLENTY OF CLOUDS
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...OR CLOSE TO 200
PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.

MARGINAL TO MODERATE SHEAR IS PRESENT...WITH KI RIGHT AROUND 35C.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP PROBABILITY
WORDING...SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. BEST TIMING IS LATE AFTERNOON WESTERN ZONES...AND THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CSTL AND ERN ZONES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY WITH REGARD TO HEAVIER SHOWER/TSTM
LOCATION...DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY AND VARYING
PLACEMENTS OF EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES. SFC TROUGH APPROACHING
TO THE WEST SHOULD TRIGGER ACTIVITY.

AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME. THE THREAT WILL BE URBAN...WITH PERHAPS FLASHIER
STREAMS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE...COUNTY GUIDANCE
LIKELY TOO HIGH OUTSIDE OF METRO.

WARM TEMPS IN THE 80S SUNDAY...WITH WARM UPPER 60S TO 70S SUNDAY
NIGHT LOWS. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND...WHICH INCLUDED ECS NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS
ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A TRANSITION TO ZONAL
FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DISSIPATES
WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON MONDAY. A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A STRONG PRESENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING NORTH AWAY FROM THE
REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES
BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP
PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION
WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FOR WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WITH THE
INSTABILITY AND REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES
DECREASING BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ESTIMATING
THESE TO BE MORE OF THE PULSE VARIETY WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. BULK SHEAR 0-6KM MOSTLY 20-25 KT WITH CAPE BEING THE
GREATER DRIVER FOR CONVECTION. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR TO WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

VFR WITH BKN CU TODAY. SLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT...OCNL GUSTS 16-19KT
FOR THE CITY TERMINALS AND KISP THIS AFTN. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
SUNDOWN.

MVFR CONDS LATE NIGHT/EARLY AM SUN...RETURNING TO VFR IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. SCT SHRA/TSTMS STARTING MID-LATE AFTN MAINLY
FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS N/W.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SUN-MON NIGHT...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF -SHRA/TSTMS AND OCNL MVFR.
.TUE-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FURTHER TO
THE EAST.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 25 KTS ON
THE WATERS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA AT THIS TIME PER SURROUNDING
OFFICE COLLAB. SEAS BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THESE INCREASING
WINDS...AND MAY COME CLOSE TO 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
OF MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND EARLY
MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT DISSIPATING WITHIN THE REGION. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH TROF APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE
TO POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING.

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES MONDAY. THIS WILL POSE
A FLOODING THREAT VARYING FROM POSSIBLE MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING TO SOME POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/PW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 301959
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO EASTERN CANADA...SENDING A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAVE A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY
WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ALOFT...LARGE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AS A
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

PLENTY OF SC DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE UNDERNEATH INVERSION WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE FROM THE WEST.

AS SUCH...PLENTY OF CLOUDS...WARM AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. DEW POINT INCREASE PER MOS AS SOUTH FLOW
PERSISTS. LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S PER MOS BLEND FOLLOWED.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME AS SHORTWAVE MOVES WELL
TO THE NORTH...WITH RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. PLENTY OF CLOUDS
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...OR CLOSE TO 200
PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.

MARGINAL TO MODERATE SHEAR IS PRESENT...WITH KI RIGHT AROUND 35C.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP PROBABILITY
WORDING...SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. BEST TIMING IS LATE AFTERNOON WESTERN ZONES...AND THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CSTL AND ERN ZONES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY WITH REGARD TO HEAVIER SHOWER/TSTM
LOCATION...DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY AND VARYING
PLACEMENTS OF EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES. SFC TROUGH APPROACHING
TO THE WEST SHOULD TRIGGER ACTIVITY.

AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME. THE THREAT WILL BE URBAN...WITH PERHAPS FLASHIER
STREAMS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE...COUNTY GUIDANCE
LIKELY TOO HIGH OUTSIDE OF METRO.

WARM TEMPS IN THE 80S SUNDAY...WITH WARM UPPER 60S TO 70S SUNDAY
NIGHT LOWS. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND...WHICH INCLUDED ECS NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS
ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A TRANSITION TO ZONAL
FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DISSIPATES
WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON MONDAY. A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A STRONG PRESENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING NORTH AWAY FROM THE
REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES
BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP
PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION
WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FOR WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WITH THE
INSTABILITY AND REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES
DECREASING BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ESTIMATING
THESE TO BE MORE OF THE PULSE VARIETY WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. BULK SHEAR 0-6KM MOSTLY 20-25 KT WITH CAPE BEING THE
GREATER DRIVER FOR CONVECTION. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR TO WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

VFR WITH BKN CU TODAY. SLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT...OCNL GUSTS 16-19KT
FOR THE CITY TERMINALS AND KISP THIS AFTN. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
SUNDOWN.

MVFR CONDS LATE NIGHT/EARLY AM SUN...RETURNING TO VFR IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. SCT SHRA/TSTMS STARTING MID-LATE AFTN MAINLY
FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS N/W.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SUN-MON NIGHT...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF -SHRA/TSTMS AND OCNL MVFR.
.TUE-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FURTHER TO
THE EAST.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 25 KTS ON
THE WATERS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA AT THIS TIME PER SURROUNDING
OFFICE COLLAB. SEAS BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THESE INCREASING
WINDS...AND MAY COME CLOSE TO 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
OF MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND EARLY
MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT DISSIPATING WITHIN THE REGION. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH TROF APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE
TO POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING.

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES MONDAY. THIS WILL POSE
A FLOODING THREAT VARYING FROM POSSIBLE MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING TO SOME POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/PW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 301749
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
149 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL WORK FARTHER
OFFSHORE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WORKS NORTHEAST AND INTO EASTERN
CANADA...SENDING A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST FROM MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BOTH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TRACKS EAST OF THE AREA
WITH A RETURN SLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEW
POINTS CLIMB INTO THE 60S. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL PUT A CAP
ON ANY CONVECTION.

PER SATELLITE...INCREASED SKY COVERAGE AS MOISTURE INCREASES
UNDERNEATH THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. PLENTY OF SC
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. EXTRA CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT TEMPS FURTHER.

WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS A SLY FLOW SENDS DEW POINTS
THROUGH THE 60S TO AROUND 70 BY DAYBREAK SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LOWS TONIGHT WELL INTO THE 60S.

MORE IMPORTANTLY....WARM ADVECTION IN A DEEP-LAYERED SW FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL ALLOW FOR A
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS WITH MDT-HIGH CAPES AND MARGINAL-MDT SHEAR.
A SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT AND A SFC TROF ACROSS EASTERN PA WILL
LIKELY TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE EARLY AFT WHICH WILL WORK INTO NE
NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MID AFT...THEN INTO NYC/CT/LI IN THE
LATE AFT/EVE HOURS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE SFC TROF LAYS
DOWN ACROSS AREA DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WOULD BE FLASH FLOODING. RIGHT NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS
TO BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF NYC AND ACROSS LI/COASTAL CT. THERE
STILL REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS AND
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.
OFTEN...IN AIRMASSES DEEP IN MOISTURE LIKE THIS...SUBTLE FEATURES
ARE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO PROVIDE THE LIFT/FOCUS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE REAL CHALLENGE WILL BE PINPOINTING THE LOCATION.
SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE WITH LOCATION AND TIMING...A FLOOD
WATCH MAY ISSUED LATER TODAY.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...MAKING
FOR A VERY MUGGY SUN NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY MON MORNING DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SFC
TROF RESIDES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT AFT/EVE WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE SW. WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70.

A LITTLE STRONGER PARENT LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY
APPROACH FOR LATER NEXT FRIDAY.`

NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. MDT-HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT WEAKLY SHEARED.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS.

FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD....AROUND 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH VALUES WELL INTO THE 80S FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOWS
GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

VFR WITH BKN CU TODAY. SLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT...OCNL GUSTS 16-19KT
FOR THE CITY TERMINALS AND KISP THIS AFTN. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
SUNDOWN.

MVFR CONDS LATE NIGHT/EARLY AM SUN...RETURNING TO VFR IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. SCT SHRA/TSTMS STARTING MID-LATE AFTN MAINLY
FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS N/W.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SUN-MON NIGHT...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF -SHRA/TSTMS AND OCNL MVFR.
.TUE-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL INTO SUN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH MIXING OVER THE WATERS SUN AFTN/EVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINDOW OF SCA GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AM NOT CONVINCED THAT THIS
WILL OCCUR AND THINK THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE NAM OVER THE
WATERS ARE TOO STEEP WHICH IS LEADING TO BETTER MIXING AND SCA
GUSTS. HAVE THEM JUST UNDER 25 KT...BUT WILL RUN WITH OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT FOR NOW.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL ALSO BUILD IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING SW
FLOW. SINCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE IN THE
THIRD PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING HEADLINES...ESPECIALLY SINCE
GUSTS ARE IN QUESTION. SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT
AND FALL BACK BLO ADVSY LEVELS MON MORNING.

WAVEWATCH INCREASES SEAS BACK TO SCA LEVELS MON NIGHT...BUT THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE WIND FIELD...SO HAVE CAPPED AT 4 FT.
SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH TROF APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR
DRAINAGE TO POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW/PW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...24/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 301749
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
149 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL WORK FARTHER
OFFSHORE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WORKS NORTHEAST AND INTO EASTERN
CANADA...SENDING A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST FROM MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BOTH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TRACKS EAST OF THE AREA
WITH A RETURN SLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEW
POINTS CLIMB INTO THE 60S. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL PUT A CAP
ON ANY CONVECTION.

PER SATELLITE...INCREASED SKY COVERAGE AS MOISTURE INCREASES
UNDERNEATH THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. PLENTY OF SC
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. EXTRA CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT TEMPS FURTHER.

WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS A SLY FLOW SENDS DEW POINTS
THROUGH THE 60S TO AROUND 70 BY DAYBREAK SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LOWS TONIGHT WELL INTO THE 60S.

MORE IMPORTANTLY....WARM ADVECTION IN A DEEP-LAYERED SW FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL ALLOW FOR A
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS WITH MDT-HIGH CAPES AND MARGINAL-MDT SHEAR.
A SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT AND A SFC TROF ACROSS EASTERN PA WILL
LIKELY TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE EARLY AFT WHICH WILL WORK INTO NE
NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MID AFT...THEN INTO NYC/CT/LI IN THE
LATE AFT/EVE HOURS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE SFC TROF LAYS
DOWN ACROSS AREA DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WOULD BE FLASH FLOODING. RIGHT NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS
TO BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF NYC AND ACROSS LI/COASTAL CT. THERE
STILL REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS AND
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.
OFTEN...IN AIRMASSES DEEP IN MOISTURE LIKE THIS...SUBTLE FEATURES
ARE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO PROVIDE THE LIFT/FOCUS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE REAL CHALLENGE WILL BE PINPOINTING THE LOCATION.
SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE WITH LOCATION AND TIMING...A FLOOD
WATCH MAY ISSUED LATER TODAY.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...MAKING
FOR A VERY MUGGY SUN NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY MON MORNING DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SFC
TROF RESIDES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT AFT/EVE WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE SW. WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70.

A LITTLE STRONGER PARENT LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY
APPROACH FOR LATER NEXT FRIDAY.`

NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. MDT-HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT WEAKLY SHEARED.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS.

FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD....AROUND 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH VALUES WELL INTO THE 80S FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOWS
GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

VFR WITH BKN CU TODAY. SLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT...OCNL GUSTS 16-19KT
FOR THE CITY TERMINALS AND KISP THIS AFTN. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
SUNDOWN.

MVFR CONDS LATE NIGHT/EARLY AM SUN...RETURNING TO VFR IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. SCT SHRA/TSTMS STARTING MID-LATE AFTN MAINLY
FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS N/W.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SUN-MON NIGHT...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF -SHRA/TSTMS AND OCNL MVFR.
.TUE-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL INTO SUN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH MIXING OVER THE WATERS SUN AFTN/EVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINDOW OF SCA GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AM NOT CONVINCED THAT THIS
WILL OCCUR AND THINK THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE NAM OVER THE
WATERS ARE TOO STEEP WHICH IS LEADING TO BETTER MIXING AND SCA
GUSTS. HAVE THEM JUST UNDER 25 KT...BUT WILL RUN WITH OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT FOR NOW.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL ALSO BUILD IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING SW
FLOW. SINCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE IN THE
THIRD PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING HEADLINES...ESPECIALLY SINCE
GUSTS ARE IN QUESTION. SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT
AND FALL BACK BLO ADVSY LEVELS MON MORNING.

WAVEWATCH INCREASES SEAS BACK TO SCA LEVELS MON NIGHT...BUT THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE WIND FIELD...SO HAVE CAPPED AT 4 FT.
SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH TROF APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR
DRAINAGE TO POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW/PW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...24/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 301647
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1247 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL WORK FARTHER
OFFSHORE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WORKS NORTHEAST AND INTO EASTERN
CANADA...SENDING A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST FROM MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BOTH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TRACKS EAST OF THE AREA
WITH A RETURN SLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEW
POINTS CLIMB INTO THE 60S. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL PUT A CAP
ON ANY CONVECTION.

PER SATELLITE...INCREASED SKY COVERAGE AS MOISTURE INCREASES
UNDERNEATH THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. PLENTY OF SC
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. EXTRA CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT TEMPS FURTHER.

WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS A SLY FLOW SENDS DEW POINTS
THROUGH THE 60S TO AROUND 70 BY DAYBREAK SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LOWS TONIGHT WELL INTO THE 60S.

MORE IMPORTANTLY....WARM ADVECTION IN A DEEP-LAYERED SW FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL ALLOW FOR A
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS WITH MDT-HIGH CAPES AND MARGINAL-MDT SHEAR.
A SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT AND A SFC TROF ACROSS EASTERN PA WILL
LIKELY TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE EARLY AFT WHICH WILL WORK INTO NE
NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MID AFT...THEN INTO NYC/CT/LI IN THE
LATE AFT/EVE HOURS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE SFC TROF LAYS
DOWN ACROSS AREA DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WOULD BE FLASH FLOODING. RIGHT NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS
TO BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF NYC AND ACROSS LI/COASTAL CT. THERE
STILL REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS AND
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.
OFTEN...IN AIRMASSES DEEP IN MOISTURE LIKE THIS...SUBTLE FEATURES
ARE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO PROVIDE THE LIFT/FOCUS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE REAL CHALLENGE WILL BE PINPOINTING THE LOCATION.
SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE WITH LOCATION AND TIMING...A FLOOD
WATCH MAY ISSUED LATER TODAY.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...MAKING
FOR A VERY MUGGY SUN NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY MON MORNING DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SFC
TROF RESIDES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT AFT/EVE WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE SW. WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70.

A LITTLE STRONGER PARENT LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY
APPROACH FOR LATER NEXT FRIDAY.`

NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. MDT-HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT WEAKLY SHEARED.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS.

FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD....AROUND 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH VALUES WELL INTO THE 80S FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOWS
GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

VFR WITH SCT TO BKN CU TODAY.

SLY WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING INTO AFTN WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO
20KT POSSIBLE AFT 19Z. MVFR CIGS/BR POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT PCPN
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 12Z SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SUN-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL INTO SUN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH MIXING OVER THE WATERS SUN AFTN/EVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINDOW OF SCA GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AM NOT CONVINCED THAT THIS
WILL OCCUR AND THINK THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE NAM OVER THE
WATERS ARE TOO STEEP WHICH IS LEADING TO BETTER MIXING AND SCA
GUSTS. HAVE THEM JUST UNDER 25 KT...BUT WILL RUN WITH OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT FOR NOW.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL ALSO BUILD IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING SW
FLOW. SINCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE IN THE
THIRD PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING HEADLINES...ESPECIALLY SINCE
GUSTS ARE IN QUESTION. SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT
AND FALL BACK BLO ADVSY LEVELS MON MORNING.

WAVEWATCH INCREASES SEAS BACK TO SCA LEVELS MON NIGHT...BUT THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE WIND FIELD...SO HAVE CAPPED AT 4 FT.
SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH TROF APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR
DRAINAGE TO POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW/PW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...JC/24
MARINE...24/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 301647
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1247 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL WORK FARTHER
OFFSHORE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WORKS NORTHEAST AND INTO EASTERN
CANADA...SENDING A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST FROM MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BOTH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TRACKS EAST OF THE AREA
WITH A RETURN SLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEW
POINTS CLIMB INTO THE 60S. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL PUT A CAP
ON ANY CONVECTION.

PER SATELLITE...INCREASED SKY COVERAGE AS MOISTURE INCREASES
UNDERNEATH THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. PLENTY OF SC
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. EXTRA CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT TEMPS FURTHER.

WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS A SLY FLOW SENDS DEW POINTS
THROUGH THE 60S TO AROUND 70 BY DAYBREAK SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LOWS TONIGHT WELL INTO THE 60S.

MORE IMPORTANTLY....WARM ADVECTION IN A DEEP-LAYERED SW FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL ALLOW FOR A
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS WITH MDT-HIGH CAPES AND MARGINAL-MDT SHEAR.
A SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT AND A SFC TROF ACROSS EASTERN PA WILL
LIKELY TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE EARLY AFT WHICH WILL WORK INTO NE
NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MID AFT...THEN INTO NYC/CT/LI IN THE
LATE AFT/EVE HOURS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE SFC TROF LAYS
DOWN ACROSS AREA DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WOULD BE FLASH FLOODING. RIGHT NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS
TO BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF NYC AND ACROSS LI/COASTAL CT. THERE
STILL REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS AND
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.
OFTEN...IN AIRMASSES DEEP IN MOISTURE LIKE THIS...SUBTLE FEATURES
ARE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO PROVIDE THE LIFT/FOCUS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE REAL CHALLENGE WILL BE PINPOINTING THE LOCATION.
SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE WITH LOCATION AND TIMING...A FLOOD
WATCH MAY ISSUED LATER TODAY.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...MAKING
FOR A VERY MUGGY SUN NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY MON MORNING DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SFC
TROF RESIDES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT AFT/EVE WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE SW. WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70.

A LITTLE STRONGER PARENT LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY
APPROACH FOR LATER NEXT FRIDAY.`

NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. MDT-HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT WEAKLY SHEARED.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS.

FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD....AROUND 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH VALUES WELL INTO THE 80S FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOWS
GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

VFR WITH SCT TO BKN CU TODAY.

SLY WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING INTO AFTN WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO
20KT POSSIBLE AFT 19Z. MVFR CIGS/BR POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT PCPN
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 12Z SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SUN-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL INTO SUN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH MIXING OVER THE WATERS SUN AFTN/EVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINDOW OF SCA GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AM NOT CONVINCED THAT THIS
WILL OCCUR AND THINK THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE NAM OVER THE
WATERS ARE TOO STEEP WHICH IS LEADING TO BETTER MIXING AND SCA
GUSTS. HAVE THEM JUST UNDER 25 KT...BUT WILL RUN WITH OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT FOR NOW.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL ALSO BUILD IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING SW
FLOW. SINCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE IN THE
THIRD PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING HEADLINES...ESPECIALLY SINCE
GUSTS ARE IN QUESTION. SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT
AND FALL BACK BLO ADVSY LEVELS MON MORNING.

WAVEWATCH INCREASES SEAS BACK TO SCA LEVELS MON NIGHT...BUT THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE WIND FIELD...SO HAVE CAPPED AT 4 FT.
SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH TROF APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR
DRAINAGE TO POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW/PW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...JC/24
MARINE...24/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 301426
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1026 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL WORK FARTHER
OFFSHORE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WORKS NORTHEAST AND INTO EASTERN
CANADA...SENDING A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST FROM MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

BOTH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WORK EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY WITH A RETURN SLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE 60S. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL PUT A
CAP ON ANY CONVECTION.

GENERALLY LOOKING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...ALTHOUGH SCT SC CLOUDS
ARE FORECAST AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. AS SUCH...SKIES COULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS A SLY FLOW SENDS DEW POINTS
THROUGH THE 60S TO AROUND 70 BY DAYBREAK SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LOWS TONIGHT WELL INTO THE 60S.

MORE IMPORTANTLY....WARM ADVECTION IN A DEEP-LAYERED SW FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL ALLOW FOR A
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS WITH MDT-HIGH CAPES AND MARGINAL-MDT SHEAR.
A SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT AND A SFC TROF ACROSS EASTERN PA WILL
LIKELY TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE EARLY AFT WHICH WILL WORK INTO NE
NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MID AFT...THEN INTO NYC/CT/LI IN THE
LATE AFT/EVE HOURS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE SFC TROF LAYS
DOWN ACROSS AREA DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WOULD BE FLASH FLOODING. RIGHT NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS
TO BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF NYC AND ACROSS LI/COASTAL CT. THERE
STILL REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS AND
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.
OFTEN...IN AIRMASSES DEEP IN MOISTURE LIKE THIS...SUBTLE FEATURES
ARE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO PROVIDE THE LIFT/FOCUS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE REAL CHALLENGE WILL BE PINPOINTING THE LOCATION.
SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE WITH LOCATION AND TIMING...A FLOOD
WATCH MAY ISSUED LATER TODAY.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...MAKING
FOR A VERY MUGGY SUN NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY MON MORNING DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SFC
TROF RESIDES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT AFT/EVE WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE SW. WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70.

A LITTLE STRONGER PARENT LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY
APPROACH FOR LATER NEXT FRIDAY.`

NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. MDT-HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT WEAKLY SHEARED.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS.

FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD....AROUND 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH VALUES WELL INTO THE 80S FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOWS
GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

VFR WITH SCT TO BKN CU TODAY.

SLY WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING INTO AFTN WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO
20KT POSSIBLE AFT 19Z. MVFR CIGS/BR POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT PCPN
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 12Z SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SUN-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL INTO SUN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH MIXING OVER THE WATERS SUN AFTN/EVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINDOW OF SCA GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AM NOT CONVINCED THAT THIS
WILL OCCUR AND THINK THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE NAM OVER THE
WATERS ARE TOO STEEP WHICH IS LEADING TO BETTER MIXING AND SCA
GUSTS. HAVE THEM JUST UNDER 25 KT...BUT WILL RUN WITH OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT FOR NOW.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL ALSO BUILD IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING SW
FLOW. SINCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE IN THE
THIRD PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING HEADLINES...ESPECIALLY SINCE
GUSTS ARE IN QUESTION. SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT
AND FALL BACK BLO ADVSY LEVELS MON MORNING.

WAVEWATCH INCREASES SEAS BACK TO SCA LEVELS MON NIGHT...BUT THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE WIND FIELD...SO HAVE CAPPED AT 4 FT.
SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH TROF APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR
DRAINAGE TO POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW/PW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...JC/24
MARINE...24/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 301426
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1026 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL WORK FARTHER
OFFSHORE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WORKS NORTHEAST AND INTO EASTERN
CANADA...SENDING A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST FROM MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

BOTH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WORK EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY WITH A RETURN SLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE 60S. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL PUT A
CAP ON ANY CONVECTION.

GENERALLY LOOKING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...ALTHOUGH SCT SC CLOUDS
ARE FORECAST AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. AS SUCH...SKIES COULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS A SLY FLOW SENDS DEW POINTS
THROUGH THE 60S TO AROUND 70 BY DAYBREAK SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LOWS TONIGHT WELL INTO THE 60S.

MORE IMPORTANTLY....WARM ADVECTION IN A DEEP-LAYERED SW FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL ALLOW FOR A
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS WITH MDT-HIGH CAPES AND MARGINAL-MDT SHEAR.
A SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT AND A SFC TROF ACROSS EASTERN PA WILL
LIKELY TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE EARLY AFT WHICH WILL WORK INTO NE
NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MID AFT...THEN INTO NYC/CT/LI IN THE
LATE AFT/EVE HOURS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE SFC TROF LAYS
DOWN ACROSS AREA DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WOULD BE FLASH FLOODING. RIGHT NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS
TO BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF NYC AND ACROSS LI/COASTAL CT. THERE
STILL REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS AND
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.
OFTEN...IN AIRMASSES DEEP IN MOISTURE LIKE THIS...SUBTLE FEATURES
ARE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO PROVIDE THE LIFT/FOCUS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE REAL CHALLENGE WILL BE PINPOINTING THE LOCATION.
SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE WITH LOCATION AND TIMING...A FLOOD
WATCH MAY ISSUED LATER TODAY.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...MAKING
FOR A VERY MUGGY SUN NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY MON MORNING DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SFC
TROF RESIDES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT AFT/EVE WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE SW. WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70.

A LITTLE STRONGER PARENT LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY
APPROACH FOR LATER NEXT FRIDAY.`

NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. MDT-HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT WEAKLY SHEARED.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS.

FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD....AROUND 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH VALUES WELL INTO THE 80S FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOWS
GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

VFR WITH SCT TO BKN CU TODAY.

SLY WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING INTO AFTN WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO
20KT POSSIBLE AFT 19Z. MVFR CIGS/BR POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT PCPN
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 12Z SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SUN-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL INTO SUN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH MIXING OVER THE WATERS SUN AFTN/EVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINDOW OF SCA GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AM NOT CONVINCED THAT THIS
WILL OCCUR AND THINK THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE NAM OVER THE
WATERS ARE TOO STEEP WHICH IS LEADING TO BETTER MIXING AND SCA
GUSTS. HAVE THEM JUST UNDER 25 KT...BUT WILL RUN WITH OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT FOR NOW.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL ALSO BUILD IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING SW
FLOW. SINCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE IN THE
THIRD PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING HEADLINES...ESPECIALLY SINCE
GUSTS ARE IN QUESTION. SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT
AND FALL BACK BLO ADVSY LEVELS MON MORNING.

WAVEWATCH INCREASES SEAS BACK TO SCA LEVELS MON NIGHT...BUT THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE WIND FIELD...SO HAVE CAPPED AT 4 FT.
SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH TROF APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR
DRAINAGE TO POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW/PW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...JC/24
MARINE...24/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 301147
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
747 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS MORNING WILL WORK
FARTHER OFFSHORE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AT THE SAME TIME...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WORKS NORTHEAST AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA...SENDING A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE
NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

BOTH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WORK EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY WITH A RETURN SLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE 60S. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL PUT A
CAP ON ANY CONVECTION.

GENERALLY LOOKING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF STRATA CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS MORNING THEN INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK BY AFT/EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS A SLY FLOW SENDS DEW POINTS
THROUGH THE 60S TO AROUND 70 BY DAYBREAK SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LOWS TONIGHT WELL INTO THE 60S.

MORE IMPORTANTLY....WARM ADVECTION IN A DEEP-LAYERED SW FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL ALLOW FOR A
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS WITH MDT-HIGH CAPES AND MARGINAL-MDT SHEAR.
A SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT AND A SFC TROF ACROSS EASTERN PA WILL
LIKELY TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE EARLY AFT WHICH WILL WORK INTO NE
NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MID AFT...THEN INTO NYC/CT/LI IN THE
LATE AFT/EVE HOURS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE SFC TROF LAYS
DOWN ACROSS AREA DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WOULD BE FLASH FLOODING. RIGHT NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS
TO BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF NYC AND ACROSS LI/COASTAL CT. THERE
STILL REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS AND
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.
OFTEN...IN AIRMASSES DEEP IN MOISTURE LIKE THIS...SUBTLE FEATURES
ARE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO PROVIDE THE LIFT/FOCUS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE REAL CHALLENGE WILL BE PINPOINTING THE LOCATION.
SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE WITH LOCATION AND TIMING...A FLOOD
WATCH MAY ISSUED LATER TODAY.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...MAKING
FOR A VERY MUGGY SUN NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY MON MORNING DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SFC
TROF RESIDES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT AFT/EVE WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE SW. WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70.

A LITTLE STRONGER PARENT LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY
APPROACH FOR LATER NEXT FRIDAY.`

NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. MDT-HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT WEAKLY SHEARED.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS.

FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD....AROUND 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH VALUES WELL INTO THE 80S FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOWS
GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

NOT SEEING ANY SIGN OF MVFR CONDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NYC TERMINALS
THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING KISP/KBDR/KGON
HAVE A CHC THROUGH 15Z. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH VIS SAT HAVE
PROMPTED THE MAINTENANCE OF TEMPOS AT THESE LOCATIONS. SCT TO BKN
VFR CU LATER THIS MORNING/AFTN.

SLY WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO 20KT POSSIBLE
AFT 19Z. MVFR CIGS/BR POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFT 12Z SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SUN-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL INTO SUN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH MIXING OVER THE WATERS SUN AFTN/EVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINDOW OF SCA GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AM NOT CONVINCED THAT THIS
WILL OCCUR AND THINK THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE NAM OVER THE
WATERS ARE TOO STEEP WHICH IS LEADING TO BETTER MIXING AND SCA
GUSTS. HAVE THEM JUST UNDER 25 KT...BUT WILL RUN WITH OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT FOR NOW.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL ALSO BUILD IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING SW
FLOW. SINCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE IN THE
THIRD PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING HEADLINES...ESPECIALLY SINCE
GUSTS ARE IN QUESTION. SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT
AND FALL BACK BLO ADVSY LEVELS MON MORNING.

WAVEWATCH INCREASES SEAS BACK TO SCA LEVELS MON NIGHT...BUT THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE WIND FIELD...SO HAVE CAPPED AT 4 FT.
SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH TROF APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR
DRAINAGE TO POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 301051
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
651 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS MORNING WILL WORK
FARTHER OFFSHORE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AT THE SAME TIME...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WORKS NORTHEAST AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA...SENDING A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE
NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

BOTH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WORK EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY WITH A RETURN SLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE 60S. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL PUT A
CAP ON ANY CONVECTION.

GENERALLY LOOKING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF STRATA CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS MORNING THEN INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK BY AFT/EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS A SLY FLOW SENDS DEW POINTS
THROUGH THE 60S TO AROUND 70 BY DAYBREAK SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LOWS TONIGHT WELL INTO THE 60S.

MORE IMPORTANTLY....WARM ADVECTION IN A DEEP-LAYERED SW FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL ALLOW FOR A
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS WITH MDT-HIGH CAPES AND MARGINAL-MDT SHEAR.
A SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT AND A SFC TROF ACROSS EASTERN PA WILL
LIKELY TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE EARLY AFT WHICH WILL WORK INTO NE
NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MID AFT...THEN INTO NYC/CT/LI IN THE
LATE AFT/EVE HOURS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE SFC TROF LAYS
DOWN ACROSS AREA DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WOULD BE FLASH FLOODING. RIGHT NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS
TO BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF NYC AND ACROSS LI/COASTAL CT. THERE
STILL REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS AND
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.
OFTEN...IN AIRMASSES DEEP IN MOISTURE LIKE THIS...SUBTLE FEATURES
ARE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO PROVIDE THE LIFT/FOCUS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE REAL CHALLENGE WILL BE PINPOINTING THE LOCATION.
SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE WITH LOCATION AND TIMING...A FLOOD
WATCH MAY ISSUED LATER TODAY.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...MAKING
FOR A VERY MUGGY SUN NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY MON MORNING DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SFC
TROF RESIDES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT AFT/EVE WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE SW. WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70.

A LITTLE STRONGER PARENT LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY
APPROACH FOR LATER NEXT FRIDAY.`

NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. MDT-HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT WEAKLY SHEARED.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS.

FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD....AROUND 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH VALUES WELL INTO THE 80S FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOWS
GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TOUGH FORECAST THIS MORNING...BUT AM SEEING ENOUGH OF A TREND IN
ADDITION TO SEVERAL PIECES OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS FROM KJFK/KLGA AND COASTAL POINTS EAST TO INCLUDE A
TEMPO BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF KGON TO
THE HIGH AM THINKING BKN LOW CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT SCT CLOUDS AFT SUNRISE IN ADDITION TO
TERMINALS N AND W OF KLGA. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED TEMPO FOR MVFR
VIS AT KGON/KSWF AFT 08Z. MINIMAL SFC TEMP/MOISTURE SPREAD AT
KSWF/KGON AS OF 08Z SO EXPECT VSBYS TO DROP SOON.

S WINDS INCREASE AFT 12Z. GUSTS UP TO 20KT AT NYC TERMINALS THIS
AFTN...BUT MAY BE 2-3 HOURS EARLY IN TAFS. MVFR CIGS/BR POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF TILL SUNDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SAT NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL INTO SUN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH MIXING OVER THE WATERS SUN AFTN/EVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINDOW OF SCA GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AM NOT CONVINCED THAT THIS
WILL OCCUR AND THINK THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE NAM OVER THE
WATERS ARE TOO STEEP WHICH IS LEADING TO BETTER MIXING AND SCA
GUSTS. HAVE THEM JUST UNDER 25 KT...BUT WILL RUN WITH OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT FOR NOW.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL ALSO BUILD IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING SW
FLOW. SINCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE IN THE
THIRD PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING HEADLINES...ESPECIALLY SINCE
GUSTS ARE IN QUESTION. SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT
AND FALL BACK BLO ADVSY LEVELS MON MORNING.

WAVEWATCH INCREASES SEAS BACK TO SCA LEVELS MON NIGHT...BUT THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE WIND FIELD...SO HAVE CAPPED AT 4 FT.
SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH TROF APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR
DRAINAGE TO POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 301051
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
651 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS MORNING WILL WORK
FARTHER OFFSHORE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AT THE SAME TIME...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WORKS NORTHEAST AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA...SENDING A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE
NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

BOTH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WORK EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY WITH A RETURN SLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE 60S. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL PUT A
CAP ON ANY CONVECTION.

GENERALLY LOOKING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF STRATA CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS MORNING THEN INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK BY AFT/EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS A SLY FLOW SENDS DEW POINTS
THROUGH THE 60S TO AROUND 70 BY DAYBREAK SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LOWS TONIGHT WELL INTO THE 60S.

MORE IMPORTANTLY....WARM ADVECTION IN A DEEP-LAYERED SW FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL ALLOW FOR A
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS WITH MDT-HIGH CAPES AND MARGINAL-MDT SHEAR.
A SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT AND A SFC TROF ACROSS EASTERN PA WILL
LIKELY TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE EARLY AFT WHICH WILL WORK INTO NE
NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MID AFT...THEN INTO NYC/CT/LI IN THE
LATE AFT/EVE HOURS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE SFC TROF LAYS
DOWN ACROSS AREA DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WOULD BE FLASH FLOODING. RIGHT NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS
TO BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF NYC AND ACROSS LI/COASTAL CT. THERE
STILL REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS AND
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.
OFTEN...IN AIRMASSES DEEP IN MOISTURE LIKE THIS...SUBTLE FEATURES
ARE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO PROVIDE THE LIFT/FOCUS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE REAL CHALLENGE WILL BE PINPOINTING THE LOCATION.
SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE WITH LOCATION AND TIMING...A FLOOD
WATCH MAY ISSUED LATER TODAY.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...MAKING
FOR A VERY MUGGY SUN NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY MON MORNING DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SFC
TROF RESIDES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT AFT/EVE WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE SW. WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70.

A LITTLE STRONGER PARENT LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY
APPROACH FOR LATER NEXT FRIDAY.`

NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. MDT-HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT WEAKLY SHEARED.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS.

FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD....AROUND 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH VALUES WELL INTO THE 80S FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOWS
GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TOUGH FORECAST THIS MORNING...BUT AM SEEING ENOUGH OF A TREND IN
ADDITION TO SEVERAL PIECES OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS FROM KJFK/KLGA AND COASTAL POINTS EAST TO INCLUDE A
TEMPO BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF KGON TO
THE HIGH AM THINKING BKN LOW CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT SCT CLOUDS AFT SUNRISE IN ADDITION TO
TERMINALS N AND W OF KLGA. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED TEMPO FOR MVFR
VIS AT KGON/KSWF AFT 08Z. MINIMAL SFC TEMP/MOISTURE SPREAD AT
KSWF/KGON AS OF 08Z SO EXPECT VSBYS TO DROP SOON.

S WINDS INCREASE AFT 12Z. GUSTS UP TO 20KT AT NYC TERMINALS THIS
AFTN...BUT MAY BE 2-3 HOURS EARLY IN TAFS. MVFR CIGS/BR POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF TILL SUNDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SAT NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL INTO SUN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH MIXING OVER THE WATERS SUN AFTN/EVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINDOW OF SCA GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AM NOT CONVINCED THAT THIS
WILL OCCUR AND THINK THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE NAM OVER THE
WATERS ARE TOO STEEP WHICH IS LEADING TO BETTER MIXING AND SCA
GUSTS. HAVE THEM JUST UNDER 25 KT...BUT WILL RUN WITH OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT FOR NOW.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL ALSO BUILD IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING SW
FLOW. SINCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE IN THE
THIRD PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING HEADLINES...ESPECIALLY SINCE
GUSTS ARE IN QUESTION. SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT
AND FALL BACK BLO ADVSY LEVELS MON MORNING.

WAVEWATCH INCREASES SEAS BACK TO SCA LEVELS MON NIGHT...BUT THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE WIND FIELD...SO HAVE CAPPED AT 4 FT.
SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH TROF APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR
DRAINAGE TO POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 300850
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
450 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS MORNING WILL WORK
FARTHER OFFSHORE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AT THE SAME TIME...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WORKS NORTHEAST AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA...SENDING A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE
NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BOTH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WORK EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY WITH A RETURN SLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE 60S. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL PUT A
CAP ON ANY CONVECTION.

GENERALLY LOOKING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF STRATA CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS MORNING THEN INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK BY AFT/EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS A SLY FLOW SENDS DEW POINTS
THROUGH THE 60S TO AROUND 70 BY DAYBREAK SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LOWS TONIGHT WELL INTO THE 60S.

MORE IMPORTANTLY....WARM ADVECTION IN A DEEP-LAYERED SW FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL ALLOW FOR A
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS WITH MDT-HIGH CAPES AND MARGINAL-MDT SHEAR.
A SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT AND A SFC TROF ACROSS EASTERN PA WILL
LIKELY TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE EARLY AFT WHICH WILL WORK INTO NE
NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MID AFT...THEN INTO NYC/CT/LI IN THE
LATE AFT/EVE HOURS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE SFC TROF LAYS
DOWN ACROSS AREA DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WOULD BE FLASH FLOODING. RIGHT NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS
TO BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF NYC AND ACROSS LI/COASTAL CT. THERE
STILL REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS AND
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.
OFTEN...IN AIRMASSES DEEP IN MOISTURE LIKE THIS...SUBTLE FEATURES
ARE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO PROVIDE THE LIFT/FOCUS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE REAL CHALLENGE WILL BE PINPOINTING THE LOCATION.
SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE WITH LOCATION AND TIMING...A FLOOD
WATCH MAY ISSUED LATER TODAY.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...MAKING
FOR A VERY MUGGY SUN NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY MON MORNING DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SFC
TROF RESIDES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT AFT/EVE WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE SW. WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70.

A LITTLE STRONGER PARENT LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY
APPROACH FOR LATER NEXT FRIDAY.`

NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. MDT-HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT WEAKLY SHEARED.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS.

FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD....AROUND 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH VALUES WELL INTO THE 80S FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOWS
GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TOUGH FORECAST THIS MORNING...BUT AM SEEING ENOUGH OF A TREND IN
ADDITION TO SEVERAL PIECES OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS FROM KJFK/KLGA AND COASTAL POINTS EAST TO INCLUDE A
TEMPO BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF KGON TO
THE HIGH AM THINKING BKN LOW CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT SCT CLOUDS AFT SUNRISE IN ADDITION TO
TERMINALS N AND W OF KLGA. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED TEMPO FOR MVFR
VIS AT KGON/KSWF AFT 08Z. MINIMAL SFC TEMP/MOISTURE SPREAD AT
KSWF/KGON AS OF 08Z SO EXPECT VSBYS TO DROP SOON.

S WINDS INCREASE AFT 12Z. GUSTS UP TO 20KT AT NYC TERMINALS THIS
AFTN...BUT MAY BE 2-3 HOURS EARLY IN TAFS. MVFR CIGS/BR POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF TILL SUNDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SAT NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL INTO SUN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH MIXING OVER THE WATERS SUN AFTN/EVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINDOW OF SCA GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AM NOT CONVINCED THAT THIS
WILL OCCUR AND THINK THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE NAM OVER THE
WATERS ARE TOO STEEP WHICH IS LEADING TO BETTER MIXING AND SCA
GUSTS. HAVE THEM JUST UNDER 25 KT...BUT WILL RUN WITH OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT FOR NOW.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL ALSO BUILD IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING SW
FLOW. SINCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE IN THE
THIRD PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING HEADLINES...ESPECIALLY SINCE
GUSTS ARE IN QUESTION. SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT
AND FALL BACK BLO ADVSY LEVELS MON MORNING.

WAVEWATCH INCREASES SEAS BACK TO SCA LEVELS MON NIGHT...BUT THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE WIND FIELD...SO HAVE CAPPED AT 4 FT.
SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH TROF APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR
DRAINAGE TO POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 300850
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
450 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS MORNING WILL WORK
FARTHER OFFSHORE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AT THE SAME TIME...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WORKS NORTHEAST AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA...SENDING A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE
NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BOTH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WORK EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY WITH A RETURN SLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE 60S. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL PUT A
CAP ON ANY CONVECTION.

GENERALLY LOOKING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF STRATA CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS MORNING THEN INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK BY AFT/EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS A SLY FLOW SENDS DEW POINTS
THROUGH THE 60S TO AROUND 70 BY DAYBREAK SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LOWS TONIGHT WELL INTO THE 60S.

MORE IMPORTANTLY....WARM ADVECTION IN A DEEP-LAYERED SW FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL ALLOW FOR A
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS WITH MDT-HIGH CAPES AND MARGINAL-MDT SHEAR.
A SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT AND A SFC TROF ACROSS EASTERN PA WILL
LIKELY TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE EARLY AFT WHICH WILL WORK INTO NE
NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MID AFT...THEN INTO NYC/CT/LI IN THE
LATE AFT/EVE HOURS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE SFC TROF LAYS
DOWN ACROSS AREA DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WOULD BE FLASH FLOODING. RIGHT NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS
TO BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF NYC AND ACROSS LI/COASTAL CT. THERE
STILL REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS AND
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.
OFTEN...IN AIRMASSES DEEP IN MOISTURE LIKE THIS...SUBTLE FEATURES
ARE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO PROVIDE THE LIFT/FOCUS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE REAL CHALLENGE WILL BE PINPOINTING THE LOCATION.
SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE WITH LOCATION AND TIMING...A FLOOD
WATCH MAY ISSUED LATER TODAY.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...MAKING
FOR A VERY MUGGY SUN NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY MON MORNING DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SFC
TROF RESIDES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT AFT/EVE WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE SW. WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70.

A LITTLE STRONGER PARENT LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY
APPROACH FOR LATER NEXT FRIDAY.`

NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. MDT-HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT WEAKLY SHEARED.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS.

FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD....AROUND 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH VALUES WELL INTO THE 80S FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOWS
GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TOUGH FORECAST THIS MORNING...BUT AM SEEING ENOUGH OF A TREND IN
ADDITION TO SEVERAL PIECES OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS FROM KJFK/KLGA AND COASTAL POINTS EAST TO INCLUDE A
TEMPO BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF KGON TO
THE HIGH AM THINKING BKN LOW CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT SCT CLOUDS AFT SUNRISE IN ADDITION TO
TERMINALS N AND W OF KLGA. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED TEMPO FOR MVFR
VIS AT KGON/KSWF AFT 08Z. MINIMAL SFC TEMP/MOISTURE SPREAD AT
KSWF/KGON AS OF 08Z SO EXPECT VSBYS TO DROP SOON.

S WINDS INCREASE AFT 12Z. GUSTS UP TO 20KT AT NYC TERMINALS THIS
AFTN...BUT MAY BE 2-3 HOURS EARLY IN TAFS. MVFR CIGS/BR POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF TILL SUNDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SAT NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL INTO SUN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH MIXING OVER THE WATERS SUN AFTN/EVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINDOW OF SCA GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AM NOT CONVINCED THAT THIS
WILL OCCUR AND THINK THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE NAM OVER THE
WATERS ARE TOO STEEP WHICH IS LEADING TO BETTER MIXING AND SCA
GUSTS. HAVE THEM JUST UNDER 25 KT...BUT WILL RUN WITH OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT FOR NOW.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL ALSO BUILD IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING SW
FLOW. SINCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE IN THE
THIRD PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING HEADLINES...ESPECIALLY SINCE
GUSTS ARE IN QUESTION. SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT
AND FALL BACK BLO ADVSY LEVELS MON MORNING.

WAVEWATCH INCREASES SEAS BACK TO SCA LEVELS MON NIGHT...BUT THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE WIND FIELD...SO HAVE CAPPED AT 4 FT.
SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH TROF APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR
DRAINAGE TO POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 300836
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
436 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS MORNING WILL WORK
FARTHER OFFSHORE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AT THE SAME TIME...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WORKS NORTHEAST AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA...SENDING A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE
NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BOTH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WORK EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY WITH A RETURN SLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE 60S. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL PUT A
CAP ON ANY CONVECTION.

GENERALLY LOOKING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF STRATA CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS MORNING THEN INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK BY AFT/EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS A SLY FLOW SENDS DEW POINTS
THROUGH THE 60S TO AROUND 70 BY DAYBREAK SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LOWS TONIGHT WELL INTO THE 60S.

MORE IMPORTANTLY....WARM ADVECTION IN A DEEP-LAYERED SW FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL ALLOW FOR A
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS WITH MDT-HIGH CAPES AND MARGINAL-MDT SHEAR.
A SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT AND A SFC TROF ACROSS EASTERN PA WILL
LIKELY TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE EARLY AFT WHICH WILL WORK INTO NE
NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MID AFT...THEN INTO NYC/CT/LI IN THE
LATE AFT/EVE HOURS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE SFC TROF LAYS
DOWN ACROSS AREA DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WOULD BE FLASH FLOODING. RIGHT NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS
TO BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF NYC AND ACROSS LI/COASTAL CT. THERE
STILL REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS AND
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.
OFTEN...IN AIRMASSES DEEP IN MOISTURE LIKE THIS...SUBTLE FEATURES
ARE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO PROVIDE THE LIFT/FOCUS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE REAL CHALLENGE WILL BE PINPOINTING THE LOCATION.
SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE WITH LOCATION AND TIMING...A FLOOD
WATCH MAY ISSUED LATER TODAY.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...MAKING
FOR A VERY MUGGY SUN NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY MON MORNING DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SFC
TROF RESIDES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT AFT/EVE WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE SW. WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70.

A LITTLE STRONGER PARENT LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY
APPROACH FOR LATER NEXT FRIDAY.`

NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. MDT-HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT WEAKLY SHEARED.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS.

FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD....AROUND 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH VALUES WELL INTO THE 80S FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOWS
GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TOUGH FORECAST INTO THE MORNING. MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT
SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING THIS. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE FEW-SCT MENTION OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KISP FOR
NOW WHERE A TEMPO HAS BEEN ADDED BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. 09Z TAFS
WILL ADDRESS FURTHER...BUT 06Z OBS CAME IN WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS
AROUND 3K FT (BKN AT KJFK) SO MAY NEED TO AMEND SOONER.

HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED TEMPO FOR MVFR VIS AT KGON/KSWF AFT 08Z.

S WINDS INCREASE AFT 12Z. GUSTS UP TO 20KT POSSIBLE AFT 16Z...BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ON THIS JUST YET. WILL ALSO ADDRESS FURTHER IN 09Z
TAFS. MVFR CIGS/BR POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT PCPN SHOULD HOLD
OFF TILL SUNDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SAT NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL INTO SUN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH MIXING OVER THE WATERS SUN AFTN/EVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINDOW OF SCA GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AM NOT CONVINCED THAT THIS
WILL OCCUR AND THINK THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE NAM OVER THE
WATERS ARE TOO STEEP WHICH IS LEADING TO BETTER MIXING AND SCA
GUSTS. HAVE THEM JUST UNDER 25 KT...BUT WILL RUN WITH OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT FOR NOW.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL ALSO BUILD IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING SW
FLOW. SINCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE IN THE
THIRD PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING HEADLINES...ESPECIALLY SINCE
GUSTS ARE IN QUESTION. SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT
AND FALL BACK BLO ADVSY LEVELS MON MORNING.

WAVEWATCH INCREASES SEAS BACK TO SCA LEVELS MON NIGHT...BUT THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE WIND FIELD...SO HAVE CAPPED AT 4 FT.
SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH TROF APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR
DRAINAGE TO POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 300836
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
436 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS MORNING WILL WORK
FARTHER OFFSHORE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AT THE SAME TIME...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WORKS NORTHEAST AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA...SENDING A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE
NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BOTH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WORK EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY WITH A RETURN SLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE 60S. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL PUT A
CAP ON ANY CONVECTION.

GENERALLY LOOKING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF STRATA CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS MORNING THEN INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK BY AFT/EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS A SLY FLOW SENDS DEW POINTS
THROUGH THE 60S TO AROUND 70 BY DAYBREAK SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LOWS TONIGHT WELL INTO THE 60S.

MORE IMPORTANTLY....WARM ADVECTION IN A DEEP-LAYERED SW FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL ALLOW FOR A
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS WITH MDT-HIGH CAPES AND MARGINAL-MDT SHEAR.
A SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT AND A SFC TROF ACROSS EASTERN PA WILL
LIKELY TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE EARLY AFT WHICH WILL WORK INTO NE
NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MID AFT...THEN INTO NYC/CT/LI IN THE
LATE AFT/EVE HOURS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE SFC TROF LAYS
DOWN ACROSS AREA DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WOULD BE FLASH FLOODING. RIGHT NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS
TO BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF NYC AND ACROSS LI/COASTAL CT. THERE
STILL REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS AND
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.
OFTEN...IN AIRMASSES DEEP IN MOISTURE LIKE THIS...SUBTLE FEATURES
ARE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO PROVIDE THE LIFT/FOCUS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE REAL CHALLENGE WILL BE PINPOINTING THE LOCATION.
SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE WITH LOCATION AND TIMING...A FLOOD
WATCH MAY ISSUED LATER TODAY.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...MAKING
FOR A VERY MUGGY SUN NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY MON MORNING DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SFC
TROF RESIDES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT AFT/EVE WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE SW. WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70.

A LITTLE STRONGER PARENT LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY
APPROACH FOR LATER NEXT FRIDAY.`

NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. MDT-HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT WEAKLY SHEARED.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS.

FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD....AROUND 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH VALUES WELL INTO THE 80S FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOWS
GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TOUGH FORECAST INTO THE MORNING. MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT
SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING THIS. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE FEW-SCT MENTION OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KISP FOR
NOW WHERE A TEMPO HAS BEEN ADDED BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. 09Z TAFS
WILL ADDRESS FURTHER...BUT 06Z OBS CAME IN WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS
AROUND 3K FT (BKN AT KJFK) SO MAY NEED TO AMEND SOONER.

HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED TEMPO FOR MVFR VIS AT KGON/KSWF AFT 08Z.

S WINDS INCREASE AFT 12Z. GUSTS UP TO 20KT POSSIBLE AFT 16Z...BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ON THIS JUST YET. WILL ALSO ADDRESS FURTHER IN 09Z
TAFS. MVFR CIGS/BR POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT PCPN SHOULD HOLD
OFF TILL SUNDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SAT NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL INTO SUN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH MIXING OVER THE WATERS SUN AFTN/EVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINDOW OF SCA GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AM NOT CONVINCED THAT THIS
WILL OCCUR AND THINK THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE NAM OVER THE
WATERS ARE TOO STEEP WHICH IS LEADING TO BETTER MIXING AND SCA
GUSTS. HAVE THEM JUST UNDER 25 KT...BUT WILL RUN WITH OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT FOR NOW.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL ALSO BUILD IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING SW
FLOW. SINCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE IN THE
THIRD PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING HEADLINES...ESPECIALLY SINCE
GUSTS ARE IN QUESTION. SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT
AND FALL BACK BLO ADVSY LEVELS MON MORNING.

WAVEWATCH INCREASES SEAS BACK TO SCA LEVELS MON NIGHT...BUT THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE WIND FIELD...SO HAVE CAPPED AT 4 FT.
SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH TROF APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR
DRAINAGE TO POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 300624
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
224 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MOVES WITHIN THE AREA BY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
RETURNS BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
MOVES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
IN FROM THE WEST FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD TONIGHT...ENDING UP OFFSHORE SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE WAS SOME FOG ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING...SO HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS. THE NAM AND GFS TIME
HEIGHTS SUGGEST SOME STRATUS DEVELOPS SATURDAY. WITH SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...WILL PREFER A MORE MIXED SCENARIO AND
AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST.

LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY MORNING THEN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK BY AFTN/EVE.

TEMPS A BLEND OF THE GMOS25 AND MET...50/50 DURING THE DAY AND
70/30 MET AT NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AREAS OF
STRATUS AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALL MODELS KEEP
SHRTWV ENERGY W OF THE CWA THRU THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...HAVE
KEPT THE FCST DRY DUE TO A LACK OF LIFT. TEMPS A BLEND OF THE
GMOS25 AND MET...WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKING AT THE LARGE SCALE...THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE MID
LEVELS IS A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AT
500MB STAYS MAINLY BETWEEN 582 AND 590DM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
THE JET STREAM WILL BE STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION MUCH OF THE
TIME AS WELL.

ONE DEPARTURE FROM THESE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS IS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A PIECE OF THE JET POSITIONED NORTH OF
THE AREA...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO PLACE OUR REGION WITHIN THE RIGHT
REAR QUAD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL
BE A TIMEFRAME FOR ENHANCED LIFT. LOOKING AT HEIGHT FIELDS...A
SMALLER SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT AS A SLIGHT UNDULATION COMPARED TO THE
OVERALL PATTERN...MOVES NEAR SUNDAY AND EAST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DISPLACED WELL OFFSHORE
STARTING ON SUNDAY. THEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL BE SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE LOSING STRENGTH WITH TIME AS
IT MOVES IN...WITHOUT A STRONG PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND
THE SLIGHT AMPLIFICATIONS OF HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT.

THE TROUGH MOVES IN MONDAY AND WEAKENS WITHOUT A REAL SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE OF WIND DIRECTION. WE WILL STILL HAVE OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE...NOT TOO STRONG OVER THE LOCAL REGION. SO THE AREA WILL
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION. A LITTLE STRONGER
PARENT LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA NEAR THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY APPROACH FOR
LATER NEXT FRIDAY.`

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. CONVECTION TAPERS
DOWN MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM CHARACTERISTICS...30-35 KT
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR FOR SUNDAY CONVEYED BY FORECAST MODELS. MODELS
FORECAST MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. LESS SHEAR MONDAY BUT NEARLY THE SAME MUCAPE DEVELOPMENT.

A REMARKABLE WARMING TREND SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO THE NEW WEEK. TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
HIGHS...AROUND 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES WELL INTO THE
80S FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOWS GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TOUGH FORECAST INTO THE MORNING. MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT
SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING THIS. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE FEW-SCT MENTION OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KISP FOR
NOW WHERE A TEMPO HAS BEEN ADDED BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. 09Z TAFS
WILL ADDRESS FURTHER...BUT 06Z OBS CAME IN WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS
AROUND 3K FT (BKN AT KJFK) SO MAY NEED TO AMEND SOONER.

HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED TEMPO FOR MVFR VIS AT KGON/KSWF AFT 08Z.

S WINDS INCREASE AFT 12Z. GUSTS UP TO 20KT POSSIBLE AFT 16Z...BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ON THIS JUST YET. WILL ALSO ADDRESS FURTHER IN 09Z
TAFS. MVFR CIGS/BR POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT PCPN SHOULD HOLD
OFF TILL SUNDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SAT NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES BLW SCA LVLS THRU SAT NGT. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FETCH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS MAINLY
FOR SEAS ARE FORECAST AS SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN. WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 20 KT. HOWEVER...PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEK SO CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TO SUB SCA LEVELS BY LATER MONDAY MORNING AND
THEREAFTER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL THROUGH SAT. LAYER PW OF AROUND 2 INCHES WITH FRONT
APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WILL
REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE TO POSSIBLY
FLASH FLOODING. ANY FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 300624
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
224 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MOVES WITHIN THE AREA BY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
RETURNS BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
MOVES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
IN FROM THE WEST FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD TONIGHT...ENDING UP OFFSHORE SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE WAS SOME FOG ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING...SO HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS. THE NAM AND GFS TIME
HEIGHTS SUGGEST SOME STRATUS DEVELOPS SATURDAY. WITH SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...WILL PREFER A MORE MIXED SCENARIO AND
AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST.

LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY MORNING THEN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK BY AFTN/EVE.

TEMPS A BLEND OF THE GMOS25 AND MET...50/50 DURING THE DAY AND
70/30 MET AT NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AREAS OF
STRATUS AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALL MODELS KEEP
SHRTWV ENERGY W OF THE CWA THRU THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...HAVE
KEPT THE FCST DRY DUE TO A LACK OF LIFT. TEMPS A BLEND OF THE
GMOS25 AND MET...WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKING AT THE LARGE SCALE...THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE MID
LEVELS IS A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AT
500MB STAYS MAINLY BETWEEN 582 AND 590DM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
THE JET STREAM WILL BE STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION MUCH OF THE
TIME AS WELL.

ONE DEPARTURE FROM THESE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS IS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A PIECE OF THE JET POSITIONED NORTH OF
THE AREA...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO PLACE OUR REGION WITHIN THE RIGHT
REAR QUAD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL
BE A TIMEFRAME FOR ENHANCED LIFT. LOOKING AT HEIGHT FIELDS...A
SMALLER SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT AS A SLIGHT UNDULATION COMPARED TO THE
OVERALL PATTERN...MOVES NEAR SUNDAY AND EAST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DISPLACED WELL OFFSHORE
STARTING ON SUNDAY. THEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL BE SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE LOSING STRENGTH WITH TIME AS
IT MOVES IN...WITHOUT A STRONG PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND
THE SLIGHT AMPLIFICATIONS OF HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT.

THE TROUGH MOVES IN MONDAY AND WEAKENS WITHOUT A REAL SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE OF WIND DIRECTION. WE WILL STILL HAVE OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE...NOT TOO STRONG OVER THE LOCAL REGION. SO THE AREA WILL
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION. A LITTLE STRONGER
PARENT LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA NEAR THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY APPROACH FOR
LATER NEXT FRIDAY.`

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. CONVECTION TAPERS
DOWN MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM CHARACTERISTICS...30-35 KT
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR FOR SUNDAY CONVEYED BY FORECAST MODELS. MODELS
FORECAST MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. LESS SHEAR MONDAY BUT NEARLY THE SAME MUCAPE DEVELOPMENT.

A REMARKABLE WARMING TREND SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO THE NEW WEEK. TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
HIGHS...AROUND 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES WELL INTO THE
80S FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOWS GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TOUGH FORECAST INTO THE MORNING. MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT
SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING THIS. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE FEW-SCT MENTION OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KISP FOR
NOW WHERE A TEMPO HAS BEEN ADDED BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. 09Z TAFS
WILL ADDRESS FURTHER...BUT 06Z OBS CAME IN WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS
AROUND 3K FT (BKN AT KJFK) SO MAY NEED TO AMEND SOONER.

HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED TEMPO FOR MVFR VIS AT KGON/KSWF AFT 08Z.

S WINDS INCREASE AFT 12Z. GUSTS UP TO 20KT POSSIBLE AFT 16Z...BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ON THIS JUST YET. WILL ALSO ADDRESS FURTHER IN 09Z
TAFS. MVFR CIGS/BR POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT PCPN SHOULD HOLD
OFF TILL SUNDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SAT NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES BLW SCA LVLS THRU SAT NGT. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FETCH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS MAINLY
FOR SEAS ARE FORECAST AS SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN. WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 20 KT. HOWEVER...PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEK SO CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TO SUB SCA LEVELS BY LATER MONDAY MORNING AND
THEREAFTER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL THROUGH SAT. LAYER PW OF AROUND 2 INCHES WITH FRONT
APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WILL
REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE TO POSSIBLY
FLASH FLOODING. ANY FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KOKX 300245
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1045 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES WITHIN THE AREA BY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
RETURNS BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
MOVES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
IN FROM THE WEST FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD TONIGHT...ENDING UP OFFSHORE SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE WAS SOME FOG ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING...SO HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS. THE NAM AND GFS TIME
HEIGHTS SUGGEST SOME STRATUS DEVELOPS SATURDAY. WITH SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...WILL PREFER A MORE MIXED SCENARIO AND
AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST.

LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY MORNING THEN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK BY AFTN/EVE.

TEMPS A BLEND OF THE GMOS25 AND MET...50/50 DURING THE DAY AND
70/30 MET AT NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AREAS OF
STRATUS AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALL MODELS KEEP
SHRTWV ENERGY W OF THE CWA THRU THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...HAVE
KEPT THE FCST DRY DUE TO A LACK OF LIFT. TEMPS A BLEND OF THE
GMOS25 AND MET...WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKING AT THE LARGE SCALE...THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE MID
LEVELS IS A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AT
500MB STAYS MAINLY BETWEEN 582 AND 590DM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
THE JET STREAM WILL BE STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION MUCH OF THE
TIME AS WELL.

ONE DEPARTURE FROM THESE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS IS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A PIECE OF THE JET POSITIONED NORTH OF
THE AREA...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO PLACE OUR REGION WITHIN THE RIGHT
REAR QUAD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL
BE A TIMEFRAME FOR ENHANCED LIFT. LOOKING AT HEIGHT FIELDS...A
SMALLER SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT AS A SLIGHT UNDULATION COMPARED TO THE
OVERALL PATTERN...MOVES NEAR SUNDAY AND EAST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DISPLACED WELL OFFSHORE
STARTING ON SUNDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL BE LOSING STRENGTH WITH TIME AS IT
MOVES IN...WITHOUT A STRONG PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATIONS OF HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT.

THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES WITHOUT A REAL
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF WIND DIRECTION AND THEREBY AIRMASS. WE WILL
STILL HAVE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE...NOT TOO STRONG OVER THE LOCAL
REGION. SO THE AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DIURNALLY INDUCED
CONVECTION. A LITTLE STRONGER PARENT LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT MAY APPROACH FOR LATER NEXT FRIDAY.`

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. CONVECTION TAPERS
DOWN MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM CHARACTERISTICS...30-35 KT
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR FOR SUNDAY CONVEYED BY FORECAST MODELS. MODELS
FORECAST MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. LESS SHEAR MONDAY BUT NEARLY THE SAME MUCAPE DEVELOPMENT.

A REMARKABLE WARMING TREND SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO THE NEW WEEK. TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
HIGHS...AROUND 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES WELL INTO THE
80S FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOWS GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION.

DECREASING SE FLOW TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND VRB.

FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG
REDUCING VIS TO 4-6 SM PSBL AT KGON/KSWF AFTR 08Z. PSBL STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT NEAR DAYBREAK...LOW CONFIDENCE SO ONLY WILL MENTION AS
FEW/SCT GROUP FOR NOW.

WINDS INCREASE AFTR DAYBREAK TOMORROW FROM THE S. 10-12 KTS BY THE
AFTN WITH OCNL GUSTS 15-16 KTS. INCREASING MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF TILL SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SAT NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES BLW SCA LVLS THRU SAT NGT. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FETCH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS MAINLY
FOR SEAS ARE FORECAST AS SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN. WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 20 KT. HOWEVER...PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEK SO CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TO SUB SCA LEVELS BY LATER MONDAY MORNING AND
THEREAFTER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL THROUGH SAT. LAYER PW OF AROUND 2 INCHES WITH FRONT
APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WILL
REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE TO POSSIBLY
FLASH FLOODING. ANY FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM







000
FXUS61 KOKX 300245
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1045 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES WITHIN THE AREA BY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
RETURNS BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
MOVES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
IN FROM THE WEST FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD TONIGHT...ENDING UP OFFSHORE SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE WAS SOME FOG ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING...SO HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS. THE NAM AND GFS TIME
HEIGHTS SUGGEST SOME STRATUS DEVELOPS SATURDAY. WITH SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...WILL PREFER A MORE MIXED SCENARIO AND
AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST.

LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY MORNING THEN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK BY AFTN/EVE.

TEMPS A BLEND OF THE GMOS25 AND MET...50/50 DURING THE DAY AND
70/30 MET AT NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AREAS OF
STRATUS AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALL MODELS KEEP
SHRTWV ENERGY W OF THE CWA THRU THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...HAVE
KEPT THE FCST DRY DUE TO A LACK OF LIFT. TEMPS A BLEND OF THE
GMOS25 AND MET...WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKING AT THE LARGE SCALE...THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE MID
LEVELS IS A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AT
500MB STAYS MAINLY BETWEEN 582 AND 590DM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
THE JET STREAM WILL BE STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION MUCH OF THE
TIME AS WELL.

ONE DEPARTURE FROM THESE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS IS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A PIECE OF THE JET POSITIONED NORTH OF
THE AREA...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO PLACE OUR REGION WITHIN THE RIGHT
REAR QUAD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL
BE A TIMEFRAME FOR ENHANCED LIFT. LOOKING AT HEIGHT FIELDS...A
SMALLER SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT AS A SLIGHT UNDULATION COMPARED TO THE
OVERALL PATTERN...MOVES NEAR SUNDAY AND EAST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DISPLACED WELL OFFSHORE
STARTING ON SUNDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL BE LOSING STRENGTH WITH TIME AS IT
MOVES IN...WITHOUT A STRONG PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATIONS OF HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT.

THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES WITHOUT A REAL
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF WIND DIRECTION AND THEREBY AIRMASS. WE WILL
STILL HAVE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE...NOT TOO STRONG OVER THE LOCAL
REGION. SO THE AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DIURNALLY INDUCED
CONVECTION. A LITTLE STRONGER PARENT LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT MAY APPROACH FOR LATER NEXT FRIDAY.`

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. CONVECTION TAPERS
DOWN MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM CHARACTERISTICS...30-35 KT
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR FOR SUNDAY CONVEYED BY FORECAST MODELS. MODELS
FORECAST MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. LESS SHEAR MONDAY BUT NEARLY THE SAME MUCAPE DEVELOPMENT.

A REMARKABLE WARMING TREND SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO THE NEW WEEK. TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
HIGHS...AROUND 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES WELL INTO THE
80S FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOWS GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION.

DECREASING SE FLOW TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND VRB.

FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG
REDUCING VIS TO 4-6 SM PSBL AT KGON/KSWF AFTR 08Z. PSBL STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT NEAR DAYBREAK...LOW CONFIDENCE SO ONLY WILL MENTION AS
FEW/SCT GROUP FOR NOW.

WINDS INCREASE AFTR DAYBREAK TOMORROW FROM THE S. 10-12 KTS BY THE
AFTN WITH OCNL GUSTS 15-16 KTS. INCREASING MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF TILL SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SAT NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES BLW SCA LVLS THRU SAT NGT. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FETCH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS MAINLY
FOR SEAS ARE FORECAST AS SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN. WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 20 KT. HOWEVER...PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEK SO CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TO SUB SCA LEVELS BY LATER MONDAY MORNING AND
THEREAFTER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL THROUGH SAT. LAYER PW OF AROUND 2 INCHES WITH FRONT
APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WILL
REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE TO POSSIBLY
FLASH FLOODING. ANY FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 300122
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
922 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES WITHIN THE AREA BY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
RETURNS BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
MOVES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
IN FROM THE WEST FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD TONIGHT...ENDING UP OFFSHORE SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE WAS SOME FOG ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING...SO HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS. THE NAM AND GFS TIME
HEIGHTS SUGGEST SOME STRATUS DEVELOPS SATURDAY. WITH SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...WILL PREFER A MORE MIXED SCENARIO AND
AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST.

LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY MORNING THEN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK BY AFTN/EVE.

TEMPS A BLEND OF THE GMOS25 AND MET...50/50 DURING THE DAY AND
70/30 MET AT NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AREAS OF
STRATUS AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALL MODELS KEEP
SHRTWV ENERGY W OF THE CWA THRU THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...HAVE
KEPT THE FCST DRY DUE TO A LACK OF LIFT. TEMPS A BLEND OF THE
GMOS25 AND MET...WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKING AT THE LARGE SCALE...THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE MID
LEVELS IS A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AT
500MB STAYS MAINLY BETWEEN 582 AND 590DM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
THE JET STREAM WILL BE STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION MUCH OF THE
TIME AS WELL.

ONE DEPARTURE FROM THESE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS IS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A PIECE OF THE JET POSITIONED NORTH OF
THE AREA...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO PLACE OUR REGION WITHIN THE RIGHT
REAR QUAD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL
BE A TIMEFRAME FOR ENHANCED LIFT. LOOKING AT HEIGHT FIELDS...A
SMALLER SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT AS A SLIGHT UNDULATION COMPARED TO THE
OVERALL PATTERN...MOVES NEAR SUNDAY AND EAST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DISPLACED WELL OFFSHORE
STARTING ON SUNDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL BE LOSING STRENGTH WITH TIME AS IT
MOVES IN...WITHOUT A STRONG PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATIONS OF HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT.

THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES WITHOUT A REAL
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF WIND DIRECTION AND THEREBY AIRMASS. WE WILL
STILL HAVE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE...NOT TOO STRONG OVER THE LOCAL
REGION. SO THE AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DIURNALLY INDUCED
CONVECTION. A LITTLE STRONGER PARENT LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT MAY APPROACH FOR LATER NEXT FRIDAY.`

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. CONVECTION TAPERS
DOWN MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM CHARACTERISTICS...30-35 KT
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR FOR SUNDAY CONVEYED BY FORECAST MODELS. MODELS
FORECAST MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. LESS SHEAR MONDAY BUT NEARLY THE SAME MUCAPE DEVELOPMENT.

A REMARKABLE WARMING TREND SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO THE NEW WEEK. TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
HIGHS...AROUND 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES WELL INTO THE
80S FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOWS GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION.

SE WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL TAPER OFF AFTR 03/04Z THIS EVENING. OCNL
GUSTS STILL PSBL AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST SITES...BUT NOT FREQUENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB FOR THE
NIGHT.

FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG
REDUCING VIS TO 4-6 SM PSBL AT KGON/KSWF AFTR 08Z.

WINDS INCREASE AFTR DAYBREAK TOMORROW FROM THE S. 10-12 KTS BY THE
AFTN. INCREASING MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB + 1-2 HRS. LOW
CHC OF 2KFT CIGS 09Z-12Z SAT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS PSBL THRU 03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB + 1-2 HRS. LOW
CHC OF 2KFT CIGS 09Z-15Z SAT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB + 1-2 HRS. LOW
CHC OF 2KFT CIGS 09Z-14Z SAT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB + 1-2 HRS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB + 1-2 HRS. LOW
CHC OF 2KFT CIGS 09Z-15Z SAT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SAT NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES BLW SCA LVLS THRU SAT NGT. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FETCH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS MAINLY
FOR SEAS ARE FORECAST AS SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN. WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 20 KT.
HOWEVER...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEK SO
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO SUB SCA LEVELS BY LATER
MONDAY MORNING AND THEREAFTER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL THROUGH SAT. LAYER PW OF AROUND 2 INCHES WITH FRONT
APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WILL
REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE TO POSSIBLY
FLASH FLOODING. ANY FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 300122
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
922 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES WITHIN THE AREA BY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
RETURNS BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
MOVES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
IN FROM THE WEST FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD TONIGHT...ENDING UP OFFSHORE SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE WAS SOME FOG ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING...SO HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS. THE NAM AND GFS TIME
HEIGHTS SUGGEST SOME STRATUS DEVELOPS SATURDAY. WITH SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...WILL PREFER A MORE MIXED SCENARIO AND
AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST.

LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY MORNING THEN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK BY AFTN/EVE.

TEMPS A BLEND OF THE GMOS25 AND MET...50/50 DURING THE DAY AND
70/30 MET AT NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AREAS OF
STRATUS AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALL MODELS KEEP
SHRTWV ENERGY W OF THE CWA THRU THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...HAVE
KEPT THE FCST DRY DUE TO A LACK OF LIFT. TEMPS A BLEND OF THE
GMOS25 AND MET...WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKING AT THE LARGE SCALE...THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE MID
LEVELS IS A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AT
500MB STAYS MAINLY BETWEEN 582 AND 590DM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
THE JET STREAM WILL BE STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION MUCH OF THE
TIME AS WELL.

ONE DEPARTURE FROM THESE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS IS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A PIECE OF THE JET POSITIONED NORTH OF
THE AREA...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO PLACE OUR REGION WITHIN THE RIGHT
REAR QUAD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL
BE A TIMEFRAME FOR ENHANCED LIFT. LOOKING AT HEIGHT FIELDS...A
SMALLER SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT AS A SLIGHT UNDULATION COMPARED TO THE
OVERALL PATTERN...MOVES NEAR SUNDAY AND EAST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DISPLACED WELL OFFSHORE
STARTING ON SUNDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL BE LOSING STRENGTH WITH TIME AS IT
MOVES IN...WITHOUT A STRONG PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATIONS OF HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT.

THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES WITHOUT A REAL
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF WIND DIRECTION AND THEREBY AIRMASS. WE WILL
STILL HAVE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE...NOT TOO STRONG OVER THE LOCAL
REGION. SO THE AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DIURNALLY INDUCED
CONVECTION. A LITTLE STRONGER PARENT LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT MAY APPROACH FOR LATER NEXT FRIDAY.`

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. CONVECTION TAPERS
DOWN MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM CHARACTERISTICS...30-35 KT
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR FOR SUNDAY CONVEYED BY FORECAST MODELS. MODELS
FORECAST MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. LESS SHEAR MONDAY BUT NEARLY THE SAME MUCAPE DEVELOPMENT.

A REMARKABLE WARMING TREND SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO THE NEW WEEK. TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
HIGHS...AROUND 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES WELL INTO THE
80S FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOWS GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION.

SE WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL TAPER OFF AFTR 03/04Z THIS EVENING. OCNL
GUSTS STILL PSBL AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST SITES...BUT NOT FREQUENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB FOR THE
NIGHT.

FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG
REDUCING VIS TO 4-6 SM PSBL AT KGON/KSWF AFTR 08Z.

WINDS INCREASE AFTR DAYBREAK TOMORROW FROM THE S. 10-12 KTS BY THE
AFTN. INCREASING MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB + 1-2 HRS. LOW
CHC OF 2KFT CIGS 09Z-12Z SAT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS PSBL THRU 03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB + 1-2 HRS. LOW
CHC OF 2KFT CIGS 09Z-15Z SAT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB + 1-2 HRS. LOW
CHC OF 2KFT CIGS 09Z-14Z SAT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB + 1-2 HRS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB + 1-2 HRS. LOW
CHC OF 2KFT CIGS 09Z-15Z SAT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SAT NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES BLW SCA LVLS THRU SAT NGT. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FETCH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS MAINLY
FOR SEAS ARE FORECAST AS SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN. WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 20 KT.
HOWEVER...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEK SO
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO SUB SCA LEVELS BY LATER
MONDAY MORNING AND THEREAFTER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL THROUGH SAT. LAYER PW OF AROUND 2 INCHES WITH FRONT
APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WILL
REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE TO POSSIBLY
FLASH FLOODING. ANY FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM







000
FXUS61 KOKX 300004
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
804 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES WITHIN THE AREA BY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
RETURNS BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
MOVES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
IN FROM THE WEST FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD TONIGHT...ENDING UP OFFSHORE SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE WAS SOME FOG ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING...SO HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS. THE NAM AND GFS TIME
HEIGHTS SUGGEST SOME STRATUS DEVELOPS SATURDAY. WITH SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...WILL PREFER A MORE MIXED SCENARIO AND
AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST.

LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY MORNING THEN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK BY AFTN/EVE.

TEMPS A BLEND OF THE GMOS25 AND MET...50/50 DURING THE DAY AND
70/30 MET AT NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AREAS OF
STRATUS AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALL MODELS KEEP
SHRTWV ENERGY W OF THE CWA THRU THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...HAVE
KEPT THE FCST DRY DUE TO A LACK OF LIFT. TEMPS A BLEND OF THE
GMOS25 AND MET...WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKING AT THE LARGE SCALE...THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE MID
LEVELS IS A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AT
500MB STAYS MAINLY BETWEEN 582 AND 590DM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
THE JET STREAM WILL BE STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION MUCH OF THE
TIME AS WELL.

ONE DEPARTURE FROM THESE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS IS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A PIECE OF THE JET POSITIONED NORTH OF
THE AREA...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO PLACE OUR REGION WITHIN THE RIGHT
REAR QUAD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL
BE A TIMEFRAME FOR ENHANCED LIFT. LOOKING AT HEIGHT FIELDS...A
SMALLER SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT AS A SLIGHT UNDULATION COMPARED TO THE
OVERALL PATTERN...MOVES NEAR SUNDAY AND EAST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DISPLACED WELL OFFSHORE
STARTING ON SUNDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL BE LOSING STRENGTH WITH TIME AS IT
MOVES IN...WITHOUT A STRONG PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATIONS OF HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT.

THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES WITHOUT A REAL
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF WIND DIRECTION AND THEREBY AIRMASS. WE WILL
STILL HAVE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE...NOT TOO STRONG OVER THE LOCAL
REGION. SO THE AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DIURNALLY INDUCED
CONVECTION. A LITTLE STRONGER PARENT LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT MAY APPROACH FOR LATER NEXT FRIDAY.`

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. CONVECTION TAPERS
DOWN MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM CHARACTERISTICS...30-35 KT
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR FOR SUNDAY CONVEYED BY FORECAST MODELS. MODELS
FORECAST MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. LESS SHEAR MONDAY BUT NEARLY THE SAME MUCAPE DEVELOPMENT.

A REMARKABLE WARMING TREND SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO THE NEW WEEK. TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
HIGHS...AROUND 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES WELL INTO THE
80S FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOWS GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION.

SE WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL TAPER OFF AFTR 03/04Z THIS EVENING. OCNL
GUSTS STILL PSBL AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST SITES...BUT NOT FREQUENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB FOR THE
NIGHT.

FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG
REDUCING VIS TO 4-6 SM PSBL AT KGON/KSWF AFTR 08Z.

WINDS INCREASE AFTR DAYBREAK TOMORROW FROM THE S. 10-12 KTS BY THE
AFTN. INCREASING MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB + 1-2 HRS. LOW
CHC OF 2KFT CIGS 09Z-12Z SAT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS PSBL THRU 03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB + 1-2 HRS. LOW
CHC OF 2KFT CIGS 09Z-15Z SAT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB + 1-2 HRS. LOW
CHC OF 2KFT CIGS 09Z-14Z SAT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB + 1-2 HRS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB + 1-2 HRS. LOW
CHC OF 2KFT CIGS 09Z-15Z SAT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SAT NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES BLW SCA LVLS THRU SAT NGT. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FETCH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS MAINLY
FOR SEAS ARE FORECAST AS SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN. WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 20 KT.
HOWEVER...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEK SO
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO SUB SCA LEVELS BY LATER
MONDAY MORNING AND THEREAFTER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL THROUGH SAT. LAYER PW OF AROUND 2 INCHES WITH FRONT
APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WILL
REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE TO POSSIBLY
FLASH FLOODING. ANY FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 300004
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
804 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES WITHIN THE AREA BY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
RETURNS BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
MOVES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
IN FROM THE WEST FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD TONIGHT...ENDING UP OFFSHORE SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE WAS SOME FOG ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING...SO HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS. THE NAM AND GFS TIME
HEIGHTS SUGGEST SOME STRATUS DEVELOPS SATURDAY. WITH SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...WILL PREFER A MORE MIXED SCENARIO AND
AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST.

LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY MORNING THEN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK BY AFTN/EVE.

TEMPS A BLEND OF THE GMOS25 AND MET...50/50 DURING THE DAY AND
70/30 MET AT NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AREAS OF
STRATUS AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALL MODELS KEEP
SHRTWV ENERGY W OF THE CWA THRU THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...HAVE
KEPT THE FCST DRY DUE TO A LACK OF LIFT. TEMPS A BLEND OF THE
GMOS25 AND MET...WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKING AT THE LARGE SCALE...THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE MID
LEVELS IS A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AT
500MB STAYS MAINLY BETWEEN 582 AND 590DM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
THE JET STREAM WILL BE STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION MUCH OF THE
TIME AS WELL.

ONE DEPARTURE FROM THESE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS IS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A PIECE OF THE JET POSITIONED NORTH OF
THE AREA...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO PLACE OUR REGION WITHIN THE RIGHT
REAR QUAD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL
BE A TIMEFRAME FOR ENHANCED LIFT. LOOKING AT HEIGHT FIELDS...A
SMALLER SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT AS A SLIGHT UNDULATION COMPARED TO THE
OVERALL PATTERN...MOVES NEAR SUNDAY AND EAST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DISPLACED WELL OFFSHORE
STARTING ON SUNDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL BE LOSING STRENGTH WITH TIME AS IT
MOVES IN...WITHOUT A STRONG PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATIONS OF HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT.

THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES WITHOUT A REAL
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF WIND DIRECTION AND THEREBY AIRMASS. WE WILL
STILL HAVE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE...NOT TOO STRONG OVER THE LOCAL
REGION. SO THE AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DIURNALLY INDUCED
CONVECTION. A LITTLE STRONGER PARENT LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT MAY APPROACH FOR LATER NEXT FRIDAY.`

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. CONVECTION TAPERS
DOWN MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM CHARACTERISTICS...30-35 KT
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR FOR SUNDAY CONVEYED BY FORECAST MODELS. MODELS
FORECAST MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. LESS SHEAR MONDAY BUT NEARLY THE SAME MUCAPE DEVELOPMENT.

A REMARKABLE WARMING TREND SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO THE NEW WEEK. TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
HIGHS...AROUND 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES WELL INTO THE
80S FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOWS GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION.

SE WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL TAPER OFF AFTR 03/04Z THIS EVENING. OCNL
GUSTS STILL PSBL AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST SITES...BUT NOT FREQUENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB FOR THE
NIGHT.

FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG
REDUCING VIS TO 4-6 SM PSBL AT KGON/KSWF AFTR 08Z.

WINDS INCREASE AFTR DAYBREAK TOMORROW FROM THE S. 10-12 KTS BY THE
AFTN. INCREASING MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB + 1-2 HRS. LOW
CHC OF 2KFT CIGS 09Z-12Z SAT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS PSBL THRU 03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB + 1-2 HRS. LOW
CHC OF 2KFT CIGS 09Z-15Z SAT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB + 1-2 HRS. LOW
CHC OF 2KFT CIGS 09Z-14Z SAT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB + 1-2 HRS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB + 1-2 HRS. LOW
CHC OF 2KFT CIGS 09Z-15Z SAT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SAT NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES BLW SCA LVLS THRU SAT NGT. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FETCH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS MAINLY
FOR SEAS ARE FORECAST AS SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN. WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 20 KT.
HOWEVER...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEK SO
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO SUB SCA LEVELS BY LATER
MONDAY MORNING AND THEREAFTER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL THROUGH SAT. LAYER PW OF AROUND 2 INCHES WITH FRONT
APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WILL
REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE TO POSSIBLY
FLASH FLOODING. ANY FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM









000
FXUS61 KOKX 292337
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
737 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES WITHIN THE AREA BY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
RETURNS BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
MOVES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
IN FROM THE WEST FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD TONIGHT...ENDING UP OFFSHORE SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE WAS SOME FOG ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING...SO HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS. THE NAM AND GFS TIME
HEIGHTS SUGGEST SOME STRATUS DEVELOPS SATURDAY. WITH SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...WILL PREFER A MORE MIXED SCENARIO AND
AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST.

THE RIP RISK WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU THIS EVE. LOW RISK
SATURDAY MORNING THEN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK BY AFTN/EVE.

TEMPS A BLEND OF THE GMOS25 AND MET...50/50 DURING THE DAY AND
70/30 MET AT NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AREAS OF
STRATUS AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALL MODELS KEEP
SHRTWV ENERGY W OF THE CWA THRU THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...HAVE
KEPT THE FCST DRY DUE TO A LACK OF LIFT. TEMPS A BLEND OF THE
GMOS25 AND MET...WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKING AT THE LARGE SCALE...THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE MID LEVELS
IS A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AT 500MB STAYS MAINLY
BETWEEN 582 AND 590DM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE JET STREAM WILL BE
STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION MUCH OF THE TIME AS WELL.

ONE DEPARTURE FROM THESE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS IS ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A PIECE OF THE JET POSITIONED NORTH OF THE
AREA...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO PLACE OUR REGION WITHIN THE RIGHT REAR
QUAD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL BE A
TIMEFRAME FOR ENHANCED LIFT. LOOKING AT HEIGHT FIELDS...A SMALLER
SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT AS A SLIGHT UNDULATION COMPARED TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN...MOVES NEAR SUNDAY AND EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DISPLACED WELL OFFSHORE
STARTING ON SUNDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL BE LOSING STRENGTH WITH TIME AS IT
MOVES IN...WITHOUT A STRONG PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATIONS OF HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT.

THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES WITHOUT A REAL
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF WIND DIRECTION AND THEREBY AIRMASS. WE WILL
STILL HAVE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE...NOT TOO STRONG OVER THE LOCAL
REGION. SO THE AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DIURNALLY INDUCED
CONVECTION. A LITTLE STRONGER PARENT LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT MAY APPROACH FOR LATER NEXT FRIDAY.`

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. CONVECTION TAPERS
DOWN MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM CHARACTERISTICS...30-35 KT
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR FOR SUNDAY CONVEYED BY FORECAST MODELS. MODELS
FORECAST MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. LESS SHEAR MONDAY BUT NEARLY THE SAME MUCAPE DEVELOPMENT.

A REMARKABLE WARMING TREND SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO THE NEW WEEK. TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
HIGHS...AROUND 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES WELL INTO THE
80S FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOWS GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION.

SE WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL TAPER OFF AFTR 03/04Z THIS EVENING. OCNL
GUSTS STILL PSBL AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST SITES...BUT NOT FREQUENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB FOR THE
NIGHT.

FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG
REDUCING VIS TO 4-6 SM PSBL AT KGON/KSWF AFTR 08Z.

WINDS INCREASE AFTR DAYBREAK TOMORROW FROM THE S. 10-12 KTS BY THE
AFTN. INCREASING MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB + 1-2 HRS. LOW
CHC OF 2KFT CIGS 09Z-12Z SAT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS PSBL THRU 03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB + 1-2 HRS. LOW
CHC OF 2KFT CIGS 09Z-15Z SAT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB + 1-2 HRS. LOW
CHC OF 2KFT CIGS 09Z-14Z SAT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB + 1-2 HRS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB + 1-2 HRS. LOW
CHC OF 2KFT CIGS 09Z-15Z SAT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SAT NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES BLW SCA LVLS THRU SAT NGT. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FETCH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS MAINLY
FOR SEAS ARE FORECAST AS SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN. WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 20 KT.
HOWEVER...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEK SO
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO SUB SCA LEVELS BY LATER
MONDAY MORNING AND THEREAFTER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL THROUGH SAT. LAYER PW OF AROUND 2 INCHES WITH FRONT
APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WILL
REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE TO POSSIBLY
FLASH FLOODING. ANY FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM







000
FXUS61 KOKX 292337
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
737 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES WITHIN THE AREA BY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
RETURNS BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
MOVES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
IN FROM THE WEST FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD TONIGHT...ENDING UP OFFSHORE SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE WAS SOME FOG ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING...SO HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS. THE NAM AND GFS TIME
HEIGHTS SUGGEST SOME STRATUS DEVELOPS SATURDAY. WITH SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...WILL PREFER A MORE MIXED SCENARIO AND
AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST.

THE RIP RISK WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU THIS EVE. LOW RISK
SATURDAY MORNING THEN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK BY AFTN/EVE.

TEMPS A BLEND OF THE GMOS25 AND MET...50/50 DURING THE DAY AND
70/30 MET AT NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AREAS OF
STRATUS AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALL MODELS KEEP
SHRTWV ENERGY W OF THE CWA THRU THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...HAVE
KEPT THE FCST DRY DUE TO A LACK OF LIFT. TEMPS A BLEND OF THE
GMOS25 AND MET...WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKING AT THE LARGE SCALE...THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE MID LEVELS
IS A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AT 500MB STAYS MAINLY
BETWEEN 582 AND 590DM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE JET STREAM WILL BE
STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION MUCH OF THE TIME AS WELL.

ONE DEPARTURE FROM THESE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS IS ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A PIECE OF THE JET POSITIONED NORTH OF THE
AREA...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO PLACE OUR REGION WITHIN THE RIGHT REAR
QUAD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL BE A
TIMEFRAME FOR ENHANCED LIFT. LOOKING AT HEIGHT FIELDS...A SMALLER
SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT AS A SLIGHT UNDULATION COMPARED TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN...MOVES NEAR SUNDAY AND EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DISPLACED WELL OFFSHORE
STARTING ON SUNDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL BE LOSING STRENGTH WITH TIME AS IT
MOVES IN...WITHOUT A STRONG PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATIONS OF HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT.

THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES WITHOUT A REAL
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF WIND DIRECTION AND THEREBY AIRMASS. WE WILL
STILL HAVE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE...NOT TOO STRONG OVER THE LOCAL
REGION. SO THE AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DIURNALLY INDUCED
CONVECTION. A LITTLE STRONGER PARENT LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT MAY APPROACH FOR LATER NEXT FRIDAY.`

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. CONVECTION TAPERS
DOWN MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM CHARACTERISTICS...30-35 KT
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR FOR SUNDAY CONVEYED BY FORECAST MODELS. MODELS
FORECAST MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. LESS SHEAR MONDAY BUT NEARLY THE SAME MUCAPE DEVELOPMENT.

A REMARKABLE WARMING TREND SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO THE NEW WEEK. TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
HIGHS...AROUND 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES WELL INTO THE
80S FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOWS GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION.

SE WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL TAPER OFF AFTR 03/04Z THIS EVENING. OCNL
GUSTS STILL PSBL AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST SITES...BUT NOT FREQUENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB FOR THE
NIGHT.

FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG
REDUCING VIS TO 4-6 SM PSBL AT KGON/KSWF AFTR 08Z.

WINDS INCREASE AFTR DAYBREAK TOMORROW FROM THE S. 10-12 KTS BY THE
AFTN. INCREASING MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB + 1-2 HRS. LOW
CHC OF 2KFT CIGS 09Z-12Z SAT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS PSBL THRU 03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB + 1-2 HRS. LOW
CHC OF 2KFT CIGS 09Z-15Z SAT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB + 1-2 HRS. LOW
CHC OF 2KFT CIGS 09Z-14Z SAT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB + 1-2 HRS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB + 1-2 HRS. LOW
CHC OF 2KFT CIGS 09Z-15Z SAT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SAT NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES BLW SCA LVLS THRU SAT NGT. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FETCH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS MAINLY
FOR SEAS ARE FORECAST AS SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN. WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 20 KT.
HOWEVER...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEK SO
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO SUB SCA LEVELS BY LATER
MONDAY MORNING AND THEREAFTER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL THROUGH SAT. LAYER PW OF AROUND 2 INCHES WITH FRONT
APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WILL
REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE TO POSSIBLY
FLASH FLOODING. ANY FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 292224
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
624 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES WITHIN THE AREA BY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
RETURNS BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
MOVES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
IN FROM THE WEST FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD TONIGHT...ENDING UP OFFSHORE SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE WAS SOME FOG ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING...SO HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS. THE NAM AND GFS TIME
HEIGHTS SUGGEST SOME STRATUS DEVELOPS SATURDAY. WITH SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...WILL PREFER A MORE MIXED SCENARIO AND
AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST.

THE RIP RISK WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU THIS EVE. LOW RISK
SATURDAY MORNING THEN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK BY AFTN/EVE.

TEMPS A BLEND OF THE GMOS25 AND MET...50/50 DURING THE DAY AND
70/30 MET AT NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AREAS OF
STRATUS AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALL MODELS KEEP
SHRTWV ENERGY W OF THE CWA THRU THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...HAVE
KEPT THE FCST DRY DUE TO A LACK OF LIFT. TEMPS A BLEND OF THE
GMOS25 AND MET...WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKING AT THE LARGE SCALE...THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE MID LEVELS
IS A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AT 500MB STAYS MAINLY
BETWEEN 582 AND 590DM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE JET STREAM WILL BE
STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION MUCH OF THE TIME AS WELL.

ONE DEPARTURE FROM THESE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS IS ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A PIECE OF THE JET POSITIONED NORTH OF THE
AREA...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO PLACE OUR REGION WITHIN THE RIGHT REAR
QUAD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL BE A
TIMEFRAME FOR ENHANCED LIFT. LOOKING AT HEIGHT FIELDS...A SMALLER
SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT AS A SLIGHT UNDULATION COMPARED TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN...MOVES NEAR SUNDAY AND EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DISPLACED WELL OFFSHORE
STARTING ON SUNDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL BE LOSING STRENGTH WITH TIME AS IT
MOVES IN...WITHOUT A STRONG PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATIONS OF HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT.

THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES WITHOUT A REAL
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF WIND DIRECTION AND THEREBY AIRMASS. WE WILL
STILL HAVE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE...NOT TOO STRONG OVER THE LOCAL
REGION. SO THE AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DIURNALLY INDUCED
CONVECTION. A LITTLE STRONGER PARENT LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT MAY APPROACH FOR LATER NEXT FRIDAY.`

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. CONVECTION TAPERS
DOWN MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM CHARACTERISTICS...30-35 KT
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR FOR SUNDAY CONVEYED BY FORECAST MODELS. MODELS
FORECAST MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. LESS SHEAR MONDAY BUT NEARLY THE SAME MUCAPE DEVELOPMENT.

A REMARKABLE WARMING TREND SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO THE NEW WEEK. TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
HIGHS...AROUND 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES WELL INTO THE
80S FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOWS GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY THEN OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY.

WINDS UNTIL SUNSET...WEAK SEA BREEZES WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH
ACROSS NYC / LONG ISLAND / SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THIS EVENING. S
WINDS OF 5-10 KT WILL PREVAIL.

WINDS TONIGHT...BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
LAST A FEW HOURS PAST SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.

WINDS SATURDAY...INCREASING S WINDS REACHING 15-20 KT AT KJFK 18Z-
00Z...10-15 KT EVERYWHERE ELSE DURING THIS TIME.

POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG TONIGHT AT KSWF AND KGON 08Z-12Z.

.NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF FEW 2 THSD -3 THSD FT CLOUDS
09Z- 14Z SAT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF FEW 2 THSD -3 THSD FT CLOUDS
09Z- 14Z SAT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF FEW 2 THSD -3 THSD FT CLOUDS
09Z- 14Z SAT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1
HOUR FROM FORECAST. LOW CHANCE OF FEW 2 THSD -3 THSD FT CLOUDS
09Z- 14Z SAT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF FEW 2 THSD -3 THSD FT CLOUDS
09Z- 14Z SAT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF FEW 2 THSD -3 THSD FT CLOUDS
09Z- 14Z SAT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z SAT THROUGH THU...
.SAT NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES BLW SCA LVLS THRU SAT NGT. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FETCH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS MAINLY
FOR SEAS ARE FORECAST AS SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN. WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 20 KT.
HOWEVER...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEK SO
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO SUB SCA LEVELS BY LATER
MONDAY MORNING AND THEREAFTER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL THROUGH SAT. LAYER PW OF AROUND 2 INCHES WITH FRONT
APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WILL
REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE TO POSSIBLY
FLASH FLOODING. ANY FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...GC/SEARS
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM







000
FXUS61 KOKX 292224
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
624 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES WITHIN THE AREA BY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
RETURNS BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
MOVES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
IN FROM THE WEST FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD TONIGHT...ENDING UP OFFSHORE SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE WAS SOME FOG ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING...SO HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS. THE NAM AND GFS TIME
HEIGHTS SUGGEST SOME STRATUS DEVELOPS SATURDAY. WITH SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...WILL PREFER A MORE MIXED SCENARIO AND
AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST.

THE RIP RISK WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU THIS EVE. LOW RISK
SATURDAY MORNING THEN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK BY AFTN/EVE.

TEMPS A BLEND OF THE GMOS25 AND MET...50/50 DURING THE DAY AND
70/30 MET AT NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AREAS OF
STRATUS AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALL MODELS KEEP
SHRTWV ENERGY W OF THE CWA THRU THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...HAVE
KEPT THE FCST DRY DUE TO A LACK OF LIFT. TEMPS A BLEND OF THE
GMOS25 AND MET...WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKING AT THE LARGE SCALE...THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE MID LEVELS
IS A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AT 500MB STAYS MAINLY
BETWEEN 582 AND 590DM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE JET STREAM WILL BE
STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION MUCH OF THE TIME AS WELL.

ONE DEPARTURE FROM THESE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS IS ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A PIECE OF THE JET POSITIONED NORTH OF THE
AREA...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO PLACE OUR REGION WITHIN THE RIGHT REAR
QUAD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL BE A
TIMEFRAME FOR ENHANCED LIFT. LOOKING AT HEIGHT FIELDS...A SMALLER
SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT AS A SLIGHT UNDULATION COMPARED TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN...MOVES NEAR SUNDAY AND EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DISPLACED WELL OFFSHORE
STARTING ON SUNDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL BE LOSING STRENGTH WITH TIME AS IT
MOVES IN...WITHOUT A STRONG PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATIONS OF HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT.

THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES WITHOUT A REAL
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF WIND DIRECTION AND THEREBY AIRMASS. WE WILL
STILL HAVE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE...NOT TOO STRONG OVER THE LOCAL
REGION. SO THE AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DIURNALLY INDUCED
CONVECTION. A LITTLE STRONGER PARENT LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT MAY APPROACH FOR LATER NEXT FRIDAY.`

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. CONVECTION TAPERS
DOWN MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM CHARACTERISTICS...30-35 KT
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR FOR SUNDAY CONVEYED BY FORECAST MODELS. MODELS
FORECAST MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. LESS SHEAR MONDAY BUT NEARLY THE SAME MUCAPE DEVELOPMENT.

A REMARKABLE WARMING TREND SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO THE NEW WEEK. TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
HIGHS...AROUND 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES WELL INTO THE
80S FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOWS GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY THEN OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY.

WINDS UNTIL SUNSET...WEAK SEA BREEZES WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH
ACROSS NYC / LONG ISLAND / SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THIS EVENING. S
WINDS OF 5-10 KT WILL PREVAIL.

WINDS TONIGHT...BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
LAST A FEW HOURS PAST SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.

WINDS SATURDAY...INCREASING S WINDS REACHING 15-20 KT AT KJFK 18Z-
00Z...10-15 KT EVERYWHERE ELSE DURING THIS TIME.

POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG TONIGHT AT KSWF AND KGON 08Z-12Z.

.NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF FEW 2 THSD -3 THSD FT CLOUDS
09Z- 14Z SAT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF FEW 2 THSD -3 THSD FT CLOUDS
09Z- 14Z SAT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF FEW 2 THSD -3 THSD FT CLOUDS
09Z- 14Z SAT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1
HOUR FROM FORECAST. LOW CHANCE OF FEW 2 THSD -3 THSD FT CLOUDS
09Z- 14Z SAT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF FEW 2 THSD -3 THSD FT CLOUDS
09Z- 14Z SAT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF FEW 2 THSD -3 THSD FT CLOUDS
09Z- 14Z SAT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z SAT THROUGH THU...
.SAT NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES BLW SCA LVLS THRU SAT NGT. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FETCH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS MAINLY
FOR SEAS ARE FORECAST AS SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN. WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 20 KT.
HOWEVER...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEK SO
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO SUB SCA LEVELS BY LATER
MONDAY MORNING AND THEREAFTER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL THROUGH SAT. LAYER PW OF AROUND 2 INCHES WITH FRONT
APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WILL
REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE TO POSSIBLY
FLASH FLOODING. ANY FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...GC/SEARS
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM








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