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000
FXUS61 KOKX 301132
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
732 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...CONTINUING TO TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER
LONG ISLAND...NYC AND SOUTHERN CT. VERY MOIST LOWER LVLS RESULTING
IN AREAS OF FOG....WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG...OVER AREAS OUTSIDE OF NYC
METRO. HAVE ADDED TO FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING AND ISSUED AN
SPS TO ADDRESS THE SUDDEN VIS CHANGES.

LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO E-NE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY
WSW-WARD AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...SHOULD SEE MORE
SHOWERS TODAY ESPECIALLY AS THE COMBO OF DAYTIME SFC HEATING AND
MID LEVEL COOLING VIA THE UPPER TROUGH INCREASES INSTABILITY. NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW SCAPE OF UP TO 500 J/KG...ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE
SHOWERS BUT NOT THUNDER WITH THE INSTABILITY CONFINED MOSTLY BELOW
THE FREEZING LEVEL. FCST LIKELY POP MAINLY FOR LONG ISLAND...WITH
CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND TONIGHT INTO
WED AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES ACROSS
ON WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NW-WARD FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ON WED...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN OF OVER AN INCH NEAR AND
JUST EAST OF WHERE THIS INTERACTION OCCURS...WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN DUE TO ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 29/12Z
ECMWF WERE POINTING TOWARD SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF/03Z SREF ARE FARTHER EAST.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AND E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG TODAY...THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING CHC FOR PCPN WED EVENING...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS
STRONG UPR LVL SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF AND PUSHES EAST. 00Z MODEL
SUITE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING OVER AREAS WEST
OF NYC BY 06Z...AND THEN EASTERN AREAS BY THURS MORNING. WHILE A
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WED EVENING...THE
TREND WITH THE MODELS HAS TO PUSH IT EAST...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING
OUTSIDE THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN SETTING UP THRU THURS NIGHT-FRI
WITH SFC HIGH DIPPING SOUTH BETWEEN TWO SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...AND RIDGING ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES WITH 00Z MODELS WITH
GFS THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND ECMWF THE SLOWEST. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
BE NOTED ALL MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING FASTER FOR THE PROGRESSION.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...THE MODELS COULD BE
WEAKENING IT TOO QUICKLY AND THUS BRINGING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN THROUGH QUICKLY AS WELL. AS SUCH...SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN FRI NIGHT-SAT...BUT DID NOT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM
PRIOR FORECAST UNTIL A GOOD HANDLE OF THE TREND CAN BE MADE.
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IT WILL RAIN ON SATURDAY...FIGURING OUT THE TIMING
WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. DRY WX ON
FRIDAY...THEN BEGAN POPS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPR LVL LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN BY
12Z SAT MORNING AND THEN TAPER POPS OFF WEST TO EAST SAT NIGHT AS
MAIN FORCING ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY-MONDAY WHILE THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD TROUGHING. HAVE DRY WX IN FOR SUN-MON
WITH THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN COMING BY MON NIGHT.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS IN PLACE THRU SAT. A BRIEF BURST OF CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS DOWN A DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NY METRO THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.

IFR CIGS ARE LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE ARE NOW INTO KLGA AND
KISP AS OF 11Z. EXPECTING SLOW IMPROVEMENT BY MID MORNING FROM EAST
TO WEST...THOUGH UNSURE OF TIMING DETAILS AND RATE OF IMPROVEMENT.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WE`LL BE VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WESTERN
SECTIONS THE LAST TO IMPROVE.

SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

JFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN CIG HEIGHT THIS AM WITH IFR
POSSIBLE AROUND 13Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EAST SFC WIND LESS THAN 10
FOR AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: EXPECT GRADUAL RAISING OF THE CIG THIS
MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SFC WIND FCST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN ARRIVAL TIME OF MVFR CIG THIS
AM.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN CIG HEIGHT THIS AM.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CONFIDENT IN THE IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CIG IMPROVEMENT COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE T0NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...MVFR LOCALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS 10-15 WITH G
20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AM. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW
PM. GUSTS 20-25KT LIKELY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING E-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FROPA...AS
THE WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS
TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THU. SCA REMAINS FOR LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT
AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE EVENING...AND TO 4-7 FT ON WED.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT WILL BE PSBL WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE WINDS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU. COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC
FOR 25 KT GUSTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT-SAT...THEN
SUNDAY WITH CAA OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED WINDS MID WEEK...EXPECTING 4-6 FT SEAS THRU THU BEFORE
SUBSIDING WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT
FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING TO LESS THAN 5 FT ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH...ARE POSSIBLE
WED-WED NGT...MAINLY SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. BETWEEN ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH COLD FROPA
FRI NIGHT-SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 301132
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
732 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...CONTINUING TO TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER
LONG ISLAND...NYC AND SOUTHERN CT. VERY MOIST LOWER LVLS RESULTING
IN AREAS OF FOG....WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG...OVER AREAS OUTSIDE OF NYC
METRO. HAVE ADDED TO FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING AND ISSUED AN
SPS TO ADDRESS THE SUDDEN VIS CHANGES.

LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO E-NE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY
WSW-WARD AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...SHOULD SEE MORE
SHOWERS TODAY ESPECIALLY AS THE COMBO OF DAYTIME SFC HEATING AND
MID LEVEL COOLING VIA THE UPPER TROUGH INCREASES INSTABILITY. NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW SCAPE OF UP TO 500 J/KG...ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE
SHOWERS BUT NOT THUNDER WITH THE INSTABILITY CONFINED MOSTLY BELOW
THE FREEZING LEVEL. FCST LIKELY POP MAINLY FOR LONG ISLAND...WITH
CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND TONIGHT INTO
WED AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES ACROSS
ON WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NW-WARD FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ON WED...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN OF OVER AN INCH NEAR AND
JUST EAST OF WHERE THIS INTERACTION OCCURS...WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN DUE TO ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 29/12Z
ECMWF WERE POINTING TOWARD SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF/03Z SREF ARE FARTHER EAST.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AND E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG TODAY...THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING CHC FOR PCPN WED EVENING...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS
STRONG UPR LVL SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF AND PUSHES EAST. 00Z MODEL
SUITE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING OVER AREAS WEST
OF NYC BY 06Z...AND THEN EASTERN AREAS BY THURS MORNING. WHILE A
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WED EVENING...THE
TREND WITH THE MODELS HAS TO PUSH IT EAST...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING
OUTSIDE THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN SETTING UP THRU THURS NIGHT-FRI
WITH SFC HIGH DIPPING SOUTH BETWEEN TWO SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...AND RIDGING ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES WITH 00Z MODELS WITH
GFS THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND ECMWF THE SLOWEST. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
BE NOTED ALL MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING FASTER FOR THE PROGRESSION.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...THE MODELS COULD BE
WEAKENING IT TOO QUICKLY AND THUS BRINGING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN THROUGH QUICKLY AS WELL. AS SUCH...SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN FRI NIGHT-SAT...BUT DID NOT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM
PRIOR FORECAST UNTIL A GOOD HANDLE OF THE TREND CAN BE MADE.
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IT WILL RAIN ON SATURDAY...FIGURING OUT THE TIMING
WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. DRY WX ON
FRIDAY...THEN BEGAN POPS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPR LVL LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN BY
12Z SAT MORNING AND THEN TAPER POPS OFF WEST TO EAST SAT NIGHT AS
MAIN FORCING ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY-MONDAY WHILE THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD TROUGHING. HAVE DRY WX IN FOR SUN-MON
WITH THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN COMING BY MON NIGHT.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS IN PLACE THRU SAT. A BRIEF BURST OF CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS DOWN A DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NY METRO THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.

IFR CIGS ARE LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE ARE NOW INTO KLGA AND
KISP AS OF 11Z. EXPECTING SLOW IMPROVEMENT BY MID MORNING FROM EAST
TO WEST...THOUGH UNSURE OF TIMING DETAILS AND RATE OF IMPROVEMENT.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WE`LL BE VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WESTERN
SECTIONS THE LAST TO IMPROVE.

SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

JFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN CIG HEIGHT THIS AM WITH IFR
POSSIBLE AROUND 13Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EAST SFC WIND LESS THAN 10
FOR AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: EXPECT GRADUAL RAISING OF THE CIG THIS
MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SFC WIND FCST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN ARRIVAL TIME OF MVFR CIG THIS
AM.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN CIG HEIGHT THIS AM.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CONFIDENT IN THE IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CIG IMPROVEMENT COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE T0NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...MVFR LOCALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS 10-15 WITH G
20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AM. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW
PM. GUSTS 20-25KT LIKELY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING E-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FROPA...AS
THE WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS
TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THU. SCA REMAINS FOR LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT
AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE EVENING...AND TO 4-7 FT ON WED.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT WILL BE PSBL WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE WINDS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU. COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC
FOR 25 KT GUSTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT-SAT...THEN
SUNDAY WITH CAA OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED WINDS MID WEEK...EXPECTING 4-6 FT SEAS THRU THU BEFORE
SUBSIDING WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT
FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING TO LESS THAN 5 FT ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH...ARE POSSIBLE
WED-WED NGT...MAINLY SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. BETWEEN ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH COLD FROPA
FRI NIGHT-SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS










000
FXUS61 KOKX 300841
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
441 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION CONTINUED TO
TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF
SOUTHERN CT AS A RESULT.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF SRN CT AND ERN
LONG ISLAND...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ITS WAKE TO THE E-NE. AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY WSW-WARD AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS TODAY ESPECIALLY AS THE
COMBO OF DAYTIME SFC HEATING AND MID LEVEL COOLING VIA THE UPPER
TROUGH INCREASES INSTABILITY. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SCAPE OF UP TO
500 J/KG...ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE SHOWERS BUT NOT THUNDER WITH
THE INSTABILITY CONFINED MOSTLY BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL.
FCST LIKELY POP MAINLY FOR LONG ISLAND...WITH CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND TONIGHT INTO
WED AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES ACROSS
ON WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NW-WARD FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ON WED...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN OF OVER AN INCH NEAR AND
JUST EAST OF WHERE THIS INTERACTION OCCURS...WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN DUE TO ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 29/12Z
ECMWF WERE POINTING TOWARD SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF/03Z SREF ARE FARTHER EAST.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AND E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...
WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG TODAY...THEN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING CHC FOR PCPN WED EVENING...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS
STRONG UPR LVL SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF AND PUSHES EAST. 00Z MODEL
SUITE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING OVER AREAS WEST
OF NYC BY 06Z...AND THEN EASTERN AREAS BY THURS MORNING. WHILE A
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WED EVENING...THE
TREND WITH THE MODELS HAS TO PUSH IT EAST...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING
OUTSIDE THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN SETTING UP THRU THURS NIGHT-FRI
WITH SFC HIGH DIPPING SOUTH BETWEEN TWO SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...AND RIDGING ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES WITH 00Z MODELS WITH
GFS THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND ECMWF THE SLOWEST. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
BE NOTED ALL MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING FASTER FOR THE PROGRESSION.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...THE MODELS COULD BE
WEAKENING IT TOO QUICKLY AND THUS BRINGING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN THROUGH QUICKLY AS WELL. AS SUCH...SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN FRI NIGHT-SAT...BUT DID NOT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM
PRIOR FORECAST UNTIL A GOOD HANDLE OF THE TREND CAN BE MADE.
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IT WILL RAIN ON SATURDAY...FIGURING OUT THE TIMING
WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. DRY WX ON
FRIDAY...THEN BEGAN POPS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPR LVL LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN BY
12Z SAT MORNING AND THEN TAPER POPS OFF WEST TO EAST SAT NIGHT AS
MAIN FORCING ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY-MONDAY WHILE THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD TROUGHING. HAVE DRY WX IN FOR SUN-MON
WITH THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN COMING BY MON NIGHT.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS IN PLACE THRU SAT. A BRIEF BURST OF CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS DOWN A DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS OF 09Z THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR KISP TO JUST NORTH
OF KLGA. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.

IFR CIGS ARE LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
IF AND WHEN THE STRATUS WILL SPREAD INTO THE NY METRO. EXPECTING
IMPROVEMENT BY MID MORNING FROM EAST TO WEST...THOUGH UNSURE OF
TIMING DETAILS.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WE`LL BE VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WESTERN
SECTIONS THE LAST TO IMPROVE.

SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN CIG HEIGHT THIS AM WITH IFR
POSSIBLE AROUND 13Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EAST SFC WIND LESS THAN 10
FOR AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN CIG HEIGHT THIS AM. IFR
POSSIBLE AROUND 13Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SFC WIND FCST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN CIG HEIGHT THIS AM. MARGINAL CIG
MAY NOT MOVE IN AT ALL.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN CIG HEIGHT THIS AM. MARGINAL
CIG MAY NOT MOVE IN AT ALL.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CONFIDENT IN THE IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING FORECAST THIS
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE T0NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AM. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW
PM. GUSTS 20-25KT LIKELY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING E-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FROPA...AS
THE WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS
TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THU. ISSUED SCA FOR LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT
AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE EVENING...AND TO 4-7 FT ON WED.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT WILL BE PSBL WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE WINDS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU. COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC
FOR 25 KT GUSTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT-SAT...THEN
SUNDAY WITH CAA OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED WINDS MID WEEK...EXPECTING 4-6 FT SEAS THRU THU BEFORE
SUBSIDING WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT
FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING TO LESS THAN 5 FT ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH...ARE POSSIBLE
WED-WED NGT...MAINLY SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. BETWEEN ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH COLD FROPA
FRI NIGHT-SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS







000
FXUS61 KOKX 300841
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
441 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION CONTINUED TO
TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF
SOUTHERN CT AS A RESULT.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF SRN CT AND ERN
LONG ISLAND...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ITS WAKE TO THE E-NE. AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY WSW-WARD AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS TODAY ESPECIALLY AS THE
COMBO OF DAYTIME SFC HEATING AND MID LEVEL COOLING VIA THE UPPER
TROUGH INCREASES INSTABILITY. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SCAPE OF UP TO
500 J/KG...ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE SHOWERS BUT NOT THUNDER WITH
THE INSTABILITY CONFINED MOSTLY BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL.
FCST LIKELY POP MAINLY FOR LONG ISLAND...WITH CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND TONIGHT INTO
WED AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES ACROSS
ON WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NW-WARD FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ON WED...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN OF OVER AN INCH NEAR AND
JUST EAST OF WHERE THIS INTERACTION OCCURS...WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN DUE TO ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 29/12Z
ECMWF WERE POINTING TOWARD SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF/03Z SREF ARE FARTHER EAST.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AND E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...
WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG TODAY...THEN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING CHC FOR PCPN WED EVENING...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS
STRONG UPR LVL SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF AND PUSHES EAST. 00Z MODEL
SUITE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING OVER AREAS WEST
OF NYC BY 06Z...AND THEN EASTERN AREAS BY THURS MORNING. WHILE A
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WED EVENING...THE
TREND WITH THE MODELS HAS TO PUSH IT EAST...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING
OUTSIDE THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN SETTING UP THRU THURS NIGHT-FRI
WITH SFC HIGH DIPPING SOUTH BETWEEN TWO SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...AND RIDGING ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES WITH 00Z MODELS WITH
GFS THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND ECMWF THE SLOWEST. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
BE NOTED ALL MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING FASTER FOR THE PROGRESSION.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...THE MODELS COULD BE
WEAKENING IT TOO QUICKLY AND THUS BRINGING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN THROUGH QUICKLY AS WELL. AS SUCH...SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN FRI NIGHT-SAT...BUT DID NOT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM
PRIOR FORECAST UNTIL A GOOD HANDLE OF THE TREND CAN BE MADE.
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IT WILL RAIN ON SATURDAY...FIGURING OUT THE TIMING
WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. DRY WX ON
FRIDAY...THEN BEGAN POPS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPR LVL LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN BY
12Z SAT MORNING AND THEN TAPER POPS OFF WEST TO EAST SAT NIGHT AS
MAIN FORCING ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY-MONDAY WHILE THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD TROUGHING. HAVE DRY WX IN FOR SUN-MON
WITH THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN COMING BY MON NIGHT.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS IN PLACE THRU SAT. A BRIEF BURST OF CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS DOWN A DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS OF 09Z THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR KISP TO JUST NORTH
OF KLGA. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.

IFR CIGS ARE LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
IF AND WHEN THE STRATUS WILL SPREAD INTO THE NY METRO. EXPECTING
IMPROVEMENT BY MID MORNING FROM EAST TO WEST...THOUGH UNSURE OF
TIMING DETAILS.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WE`LL BE VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WESTERN
SECTIONS THE LAST TO IMPROVE.

SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN CIG HEIGHT THIS AM WITH IFR
POSSIBLE AROUND 13Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EAST SFC WIND LESS THAN 10
FOR AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN CIG HEIGHT THIS AM. IFR
POSSIBLE AROUND 13Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SFC WIND FCST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN CIG HEIGHT THIS AM. MARGINAL CIG
MAY NOT MOVE IN AT ALL.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN CIG HEIGHT THIS AM. MARGINAL
CIG MAY NOT MOVE IN AT ALL.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CONFIDENT IN THE IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING FORECAST THIS
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE T0NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AM. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW
PM. GUSTS 20-25KT LIKELY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING E-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FROPA...AS
THE WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS
TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THU. ISSUED SCA FOR LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT
AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE EVENING...AND TO 4-7 FT ON WED.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT WILL BE PSBL WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE WINDS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU. COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC
FOR 25 KT GUSTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT-SAT...THEN
SUNDAY WITH CAA OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED WINDS MID WEEK...EXPECTING 4-6 FT SEAS THRU THU BEFORE
SUBSIDING WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT
FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING TO LESS THAN 5 FT ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH...ARE POSSIBLE
WED-WED NGT...MAINLY SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. BETWEEN ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH COLD FROPA
FRI NIGHT-SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 300742
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
342 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION CONTINUED TO
TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF
SOUTHERN CT AS A RESULT.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF SRN CT AND ERN
LONG ISLAND...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ITS WAKE TO THE E-NE. AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY WSW-WARD AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS TODAY ESPECIALLY AS THE
COMBO OF DAYTIME SFC HEATING AND MID LEVEL COOLING VIA THE UPPER
TROUGH INCREASES INSTABILITY. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SCAPE OF UP TO
500 J/KG...ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE SHOWERS BUT NOT THUNDER WITH
THE INSTABILITY CONFINED MOSTLY BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL.
FCST LIKELY POP MAINLY FOR LONG ISLAND...WITH CHANCE ELSEWHERE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND TONIGHT INTO
WED AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES ACROSS
ON WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NW-WARD FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ON WED...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN OF OVER AN INCH NEAR AND
JUST EAST OF WHERE THIS INTERACTION OCCURS...WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN DUE TO ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 29/12Z
ECMWF WERE POINTING TOWARD SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF/03Z SREF ARE FARTHER EAST.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AND E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...
WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG TODAY...THEN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING CHC FOR PCPN WED EVENING...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS
STRONG UPR LVL SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF AND PUSHES EAST. 00Z MODEL
SUITE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING OVER AREAS WEST
OF NYC BY 06Z...AND THEN EASTERN AREAS BY THURS MORNING. WHILE A
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WED EVENING...THE
TREND WITH THE MODELS HAS TO PUSH IT EAST...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING
OUTSIDE THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN SETTING UP THRU THURS NIGHT-FRI
WITH SFC HIGH DIPPING SOUTH BETWEEN TWO SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...AND RIDGING ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES WITH 00Z MODELS WITH
GFS THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND ECMWF THE SLOWEST. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
BE NOTED ALL MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING FASTER FOR THE PROGRESSION.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...THE MODELS COULD BE
WEAKENING IT TOO QUICKLY AND THUS BRINGING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN THROUGH QUICKLY AS WELL. AS SUCH...SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN FRI NIGHT-SAT...BUT DID NOT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM
PRIOR FORECAST UNTIL A GOOD HANDLE OF THE TREND CAN BE MADE.
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IT WILL RAIN ON SATURDAY...FIGURING OUT THE TIMING
WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. DRY WX ON
FRIDAY...THEN BEGAN POPS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPR LVL LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN BY
12Z SAT MORNING AND THEN TAPER POPS OFF WEST TO EAST SAT NIGHT AS
MAIN FORCING ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY-MONDAY WHILE THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD TROUGHING. HAVE DRY WX IN FOR SUN-MON
WITH THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN COMING BY MON NIGHT.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS IN PLACE THRU SAT. A BRIEF BURST OF CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS DOWN A DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS OF 06Z THE FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF THE NEW YORK METRO.
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY.

AREAS OF IFR ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
THESE TO SPREAD INTO THE IMMEDIATE NY METRO. EXPECT THE IFR AREAS
TO DISSIPATE TO VFR AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

CONFIDENCE IN LOW ON MARGINAL VFR CIGS THIS AFTN. THESE MAY NOT
DEVELOP. SOME LIGHT RA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY.

SFC WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT
FORM THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY TO ESE
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE T0NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AM. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW
PM. GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING E-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FROPA...AS
THE WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS
TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THU. ISSUED SCA FOR LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT
AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE EVENING...AND TO 4-7 FT ON WED.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT WILL BE PSBL WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE WINDS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU. COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC
FOR 25 KT GUSTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT-SAT...THEN
SUNDAY WITH CAA OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED WINDS MID WEEK...EXPECTING 4-6 FT SEAS THRU THU BEFORE
SUBSIDING WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT
FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING TO LESS THAN 5 FT ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH...ARE POSSIBLE
WED-WED NGT...MAINLY SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. BETWEEN ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH COLD FROPA
FRI NIGHT-SAT.


&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS







000
FXUS61 KOKX 300742
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
342 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION CONTINUED TO
TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF
SOUTHERN CT AS A RESULT.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF SRN CT AND ERN
LONG ISLAND...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ITS WAKE TO THE E-NE. AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY WSW-WARD AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS TODAY ESPECIALLY AS THE
COMBO OF DAYTIME SFC HEATING AND MID LEVEL COOLING VIA THE UPPER
TROUGH INCREASES INSTABILITY. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SCAPE OF UP TO
500 J/KG...ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE SHOWERS BUT NOT THUNDER WITH
THE INSTABILITY CONFINED MOSTLY BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL.
FCST LIKELY POP MAINLY FOR LONG ISLAND...WITH CHANCE ELSEWHERE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND TONIGHT INTO
WED AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES ACROSS
ON WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NW-WARD FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ON WED...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN OF OVER AN INCH NEAR AND
JUST EAST OF WHERE THIS INTERACTION OCCURS...WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN DUE TO ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 29/12Z
ECMWF WERE POINTING TOWARD SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF/03Z SREF ARE FARTHER EAST.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AND E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...
WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG TODAY...THEN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING CHC FOR PCPN WED EVENING...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS
STRONG UPR LVL SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF AND PUSHES EAST. 00Z MODEL
SUITE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING OVER AREAS WEST
OF NYC BY 06Z...AND THEN EASTERN AREAS BY THURS MORNING. WHILE A
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WED EVENING...THE
TREND WITH THE MODELS HAS TO PUSH IT EAST...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING
OUTSIDE THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN SETTING UP THRU THURS NIGHT-FRI
WITH SFC HIGH DIPPING SOUTH BETWEEN TWO SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...AND RIDGING ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES WITH 00Z MODELS WITH
GFS THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND ECMWF THE SLOWEST. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
BE NOTED ALL MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING FASTER FOR THE PROGRESSION.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...THE MODELS COULD BE
WEAKENING IT TOO QUICKLY AND THUS BRINGING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN THROUGH QUICKLY AS WELL. AS SUCH...SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN FRI NIGHT-SAT...BUT DID NOT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM
PRIOR FORECAST UNTIL A GOOD HANDLE OF THE TREND CAN BE MADE.
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IT WILL RAIN ON SATURDAY...FIGURING OUT THE TIMING
WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. DRY WX ON
FRIDAY...THEN BEGAN POPS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPR LVL LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN BY
12Z SAT MORNING AND THEN TAPER POPS OFF WEST TO EAST SAT NIGHT AS
MAIN FORCING ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY-MONDAY WHILE THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD TROUGHING. HAVE DRY WX IN FOR SUN-MON
WITH THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN COMING BY MON NIGHT.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS IN PLACE THRU SAT. A BRIEF BURST OF CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS DOWN A DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS OF 06Z THE FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF THE NEW YORK METRO.
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY.

AREAS OF IFR ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
THESE TO SPREAD INTO THE IMMEDIATE NY METRO. EXPECT THE IFR AREAS
TO DISSIPATE TO VFR AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

CONFIDENCE IN LOW ON MARGINAL VFR CIGS THIS AFTN. THESE MAY NOT
DEVELOP. SOME LIGHT RA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY.

SFC WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT
FORM THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY TO ESE
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE T0NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AM. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW
PM. GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING E-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FROPA...AS
THE WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS
TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THU. ISSUED SCA FOR LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT
AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE EVENING...AND TO 4-7 FT ON WED.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT WILL BE PSBL WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE WINDS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU. COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC
FOR 25 KT GUSTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT-SAT...THEN
SUNDAY WITH CAA OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED WINDS MID WEEK...EXPECTING 4-6 FT SEAS THRU THU BEFORE
SUBSIDING WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT
FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING TO LESS THAN 5 FT ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH...ARE POSSIBLE
WED-WED NGT...MAINLY SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. BETWEEN ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH COLD FROPA
FRI NIGHT-SAT.


&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS






000
FXUS61 KOKX 300631
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
231 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION CONTINUED TO
TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF
SOUTHERN CT AS A RESULT.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF SRN CT AND ERN
LONG ISLAND...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ITS WAKE TO THE E-NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY WSW-WARD AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS TODAY
ESPECIALLY AS THE COMBO OF DAYTIME SFC HEATING AND MID LEVEL
COOLING VIA THE UPPER TROUGH INCREASES INSTABILITY. NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW CLOSE TO 500 J/KG SBCAPE...MOSTLY AOB THE FREEZING LEVEL SO
NO THUNDER ANTICIPATED ATTM. BUMPED POP UP TO LIKELY MAINLY FOR
LONG ISLAND...WITH CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND TONIGHT INTO
WED AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES ACROSS
ON WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NW-WARD FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ON WED...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OF OVER AN INCH NEAR AND JUST EAST
OF WHERE THIS INTERACTION OCCURS...WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN DUR TO
ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 29/12Z ECMWF WERE
POINTING TOWARD SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...WHILE THE LATEST
ECMWF HAS SHIFTED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AND E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...
WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG TODAY...THEN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWRS SHOULD END FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS.

SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP
A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE
LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ.
HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM.

MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE
PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT
AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST.

DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES
TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES
THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD
POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A
RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS OF 06Z THE FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF THE NEW YORK METRO.
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY.

AREAS OF IFR ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
THESE TO SPREAD INTO THE IMMEDIATE NY METRO. EXPECT THE IFR AREAS
TO DISSIPATE TO VFR AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

CONFIDENCE IN LOW ON MARGINAL VFR CIGS THIS AFTN. THESE MAY NOT
DEVELOP. SOME LIGHT RA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY.

SFC WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT
FORM THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY TO ESE
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE T0NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AM. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW
PM. GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING E-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FROPA...AS
THE WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS
TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THU. ISSUED SCA FOR LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT
AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE EVENING...AND TO 4-7 FT ON WED.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO RAPIDLY BUILD
AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A CDFNT. WINDS AND
SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH...ARE POSSIBLE
WED-WED NGT...MAINLY SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KOKX 300631
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
231 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION CONTINUED TO
TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF
SOUTHERN CT AS A RESULT.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF SRN CT AND ERN
LONG ISLAND...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ITS WAKE TO THE E-NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY WSW-WARD AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS TODAY
ESPECIALLY AS THE COMBO OF DAYTIME SFC HEATING AND MID LEVEL
COOLING VIA THE UPPER TROUGH INCREASES INSTABILITY. NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW CLOSE TO 500 J/KG SBCAPE...MOSTLY AOB THE FREEZING LEVEL SO
NO THUNDER ANTICIPATED ATTM. BUMPED POP UP TO LIKELY MAINLY FOR
LONG ISLAND...WITH CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND TONIGHT INTO
WED AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES ACROSS
ON WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NW-WARD FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ON WED...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OF OVER AN INCH NEAR AND JUST EAST
OF WHERE THIS INTERACTION OCCURS...WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN DUR TO
ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 29/12Z ECMWF WERE
POINTING TOWARD SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...WHILE THE LATEST
ECMWF HAS SHIFTED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AND E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...
WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG TODAY...THEN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWRS SHOULD END FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS.

SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP
A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE
LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ.
HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM.

MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE
PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT
AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST.

DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES
TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES
THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD
POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A
RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS OF 06Z THE FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF THE NEW YORK METRO.
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY.

AREAS OF IFR ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
THESE TO SPREAD INTO THE IMMEDIATE NY METRO. EXPECT THE IFR AREAS
TO DISSIPATE TO VFR AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

CONFIDENCE IN LOW ON MARGINAL VFR CIGS THIS AFTN. THESE MAY NOT
DEVELOP. SOME LIGHT RA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY.

SFC WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT
FORM THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY TO ESE
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE T0NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AM. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW
PM. GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING E-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FROPA...AS
THE WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS
TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THU. ISSUED SCA FOR LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT
AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE EVENING...AND TO 4-7 FT ON WED.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO RAPIDLY BUILD
AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A CDFNT. WINDS AND
SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH...ARE POSSIBLE
WED-WED NGT...MAINLY SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KOKX 300249
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1049 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WAS TRIGGERING
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO
SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS NOT
REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. OTHER VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ACROSS MUCH OF CONNECTICUT AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...TURNING
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE E-NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITH THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH ON TUE...AND AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW APCHG
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...SHOULD
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PD. E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL ALSO PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO BUT STILL A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRTWV DROPPING INTO NRN MN WILL PASS THRU THE CWA AS A CLOSED H5
LOW ON WED. 12Z MODEL TIMING IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF.
H85-H5 LAPSE RATES IN THE 5-6C/KM RANGE. DPVA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP AROUND H7. AS A RESULT...WILL FCST SCT SHWRS
WED...ENDING FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS. DEPTH
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLD
LIGHTNING FLASH...ESPECIALLY OVER OR INVOF THE WATER WHERE THE WARM
AND MOIST BL WILL YIELD A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE COLUMN.

SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP
A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE
LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ.
HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM.

MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE
PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT
AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST.

DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES
TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES
THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD
POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A
RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY.

VFR. A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

IFR STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER KGON
OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY DEVELOPING INTO KISP/KBDR/KHPN
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING. CONFIDENCE LOW ON STRATUS
DEVELOPING INTO NYC METRO TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. STRATUS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT
POTENTIAL FOR IT TO LINGER INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS CT TERMINALS WITH
ISOLATED SHRA ACTIVITY.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME E/NE IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. E/NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY RIGHT OF 040 MAG AND LEFT OF 130 MAG AT
METRO TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY. CHC MVFR OR LOWER. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW PM.
GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUE. PERSISTENT/INCREASING E-NE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCA
CONDS TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE. TOO EARLY TO ISSUE SCA FOR THIS
TIME FRAME.

THESE CONDS COULD CONTINUE INTO THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN AND
THE ERN SOUND/BAYS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO
RAPIDLY BUILD AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WED-WED NGT. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MET
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN










000
FXUS61 KOKX 300249
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1049 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WAS TRIGGERING
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO
SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS NOT
REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. OTHER VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ACROSS MUCH OF CONNECTICUT AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...TURNING
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE E-NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITH THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH ON TUE...AND AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW APCHG
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...SHOULD
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PD. E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL ALSO PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO BUT STILL A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRTWV DROPPING INTO NRN MN WILL PASS THRU THE CWA AS A CLOSED H5
LOW ON WED. 12Z MODEL TIMING IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF.
H85-H5 LAPSE RATES IN THE 5-6C/KM RANGE. DPVA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP AROUND H7. AS A RESULT...WILL FCST SCT SHWRS
WED...ENDING FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS. DEPTH
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLD
LIGHTNING FLASH...ESPECIALLY OVER OR INVOF THE WATER WHERE THE WARM
AND MOIST BL WILL YIELD A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE COLUMN.

SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP
A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE
LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ.
HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM.

MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE
PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT
AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST.

DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES
TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES
THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD
POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A
RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY.

VFR. A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

IFR STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER KGON
OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY DEVELOPING INTO KISP/KBDR/KHPN
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING. CONFIDENCE LOW ON STRATUS
DEVELOPING INTO NYC METRO TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. STRATUS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT
POTENTIAL FOR IT TO LINGER INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS CT TERMINALS WITH
ISOLATED SHRA ACTIVITY.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME E/NE IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. E/NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY RIGHT OF 040 MAG AND LEFT OF 130 MAG AT
METRO TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY. CHC MVFR OR LOWER. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW PM.
GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUE. PERSISTENT/INCREASING E-NE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCA
CONDS TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE. TOO EARLY TO ISSUE SCA FOR THIS
TIME FRAME.

THESE CONDS COULD CONTINUE INTO THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN AND
THE ERN SOUND/BAYS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO
RAPIDLY BUILD AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WED-WED NGT. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MET
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN











000
FXUS61 KOKX 292357
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
757 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WITH A SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING WAS TRIGGERING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. OTHER VORT
MAXES WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE LATER THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES ACROSS MUCH OF CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM SRN NH INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MA CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD AND PUSHES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE E-NE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITH THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH ON TUE...AND AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW APCHG
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...SHOULD
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PD. E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL ALSO PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO BUT STILL A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRTWV DROPPING INTO NRN MN WILL PASS THRU THE CWA AS A CLOSED H5
LOW ON WED. 12Z MODEL TIMING IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF.
H85-H5 LAPSE RATES IN THE 5-6C/KM RANGE. DPVA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP AROUND H7. AS A RESULT...WILL FCST SCT SHWRS
WED...ENDING FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS. DEPTH
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLD
LIGHTNING FLASH...ESPECIALLY OVER OR INVOF THE WATER WHERE THE WARM
AND MOIST BL WILL YIELD A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE COLUMN.

SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP
A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE
LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ.
HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM.

MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE
PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT
AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST.

DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES
TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES
THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD
POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A
RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY.

VFR. A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

MVFR STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXPECTED TO DRIFT SW INTO
KGON AND LIKELY INTO KISP/KBDR/KHPN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHETHER MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPS INTO NYC
METRO TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. STRATUS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT
POTENTIAL FOR IT TO LINGER ACROSS CT TERMINALS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING...BECOMING E/NE IN THE WAKE
OF COLD FRONT. E/NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS BETWEEN
10Z AND 14Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY. CHC MVFR OR LOWER. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW PM.
GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUE. PERSISTENT/INCREASING E-NE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCA
CONDS TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE. TOO EARLY TO ISSUE SCA FOR THIS
TIME FRAME.

THESE CONDS COULD CONTINUE INTO THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN AND
THE ERN SOUND/BAYS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO
RAPIDLY BUILD AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WED-WED NGT. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MET
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN











000
FXUS61 KOKX 292357
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
757 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WITH A SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING WAS TRIGGERING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. OTHER VORT
MAXES WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE LATER THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES ACROSS MUCH OF CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM SRN NH INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MA CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD AND PUSHES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE E-NE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITH THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH ON TUE...AND AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW APCHG
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...SHOULD
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PD. E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL ALSO PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO BUT STILL A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRTWV DROPPING INTO NRN MN WILL PASS THRU THE CWA AS A CLOSED H5
LOW ON WED. 12Z MODEL TIMING IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF.
H85-H5 LAPSE RATES IN THE 5-6C/KM RANGE. DPVA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP AROUND H7. AS A RESULT...WILL FCST SCT SHWRS
WED...ENDING FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS. DEPTH
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLD
LIGHTNING FLASH...ESPECIALLY OVER OR INVOF THE WATER WHERE THE WARM
AND MOIST BL WILL YIELD A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE COLUMN.

SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP
A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE
LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ.
HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM.

MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE
PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT
AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST.

DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES
TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES
THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD
POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A
RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY.

VFR. A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

MVFR STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXPECTED TO DRIFT SW INTO
KGON AND LIKELY INTO KISP/KBDR/KHPN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHETHER MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPS INTO NYC
METRO TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. STRATUS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT
POTENTIAL FOR IT TO LINGER ACROSS CT TERMINALS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING...BECOMING E/NE IN THE WAKE
OF COLD FRONT. E/NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS BETWEEN
10Z AND 14Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY. CHC MVFR OR LOWER. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW PM.
GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUE. PERSISTENT/INCREASING E-NE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCA
CONDS TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE. TOO EARLY TO ISSUE SCA FOR THIS
TIME FRAME.

THESE CONDS COULD CONTINUE INTO THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN AND
THE ERN SOUND/BAYS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO
RAPIDLY BUILD AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WED-WED NGT. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MET
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN










000
FXUS61 KOKX 292156
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
556 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BKN/OVC HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS.
HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES STILL SEEN ON KOKX RADAR MAINLY OVER
MIDDLESEX COUNTY CT ATTM ARE NOT SHOWERS BUT BIRDS...WHICH SHOULD
RETURN TO OLD LYME TO ROOST TOWARD SUNSET. MEANWHILE...SPRINKLES
ASSOCIATED WITH WITH A STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL VORT MAX AHEAD OF
AN APCHG UPPER TROUGH STREAMING NE INTO NYC METRO THIS EVENING.
THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD THEN PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES MAINLY OVER SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT...WHILE A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM SRN NH INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MA CONTINUES SW-WARD...AND PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...
TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE E-NE.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND/LONG ISLAND
PINE BARRENS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITH THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH ON TUE...AND AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW APCHG
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...SHOULD
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PD. E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL ALSO PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO BUT STILL A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRTWV DROPPING INTO NRN MN WILL PASS THRU THE CWA AS A CLOSED H5
LOW ON WED. 12Z MODEL TIMING IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF.
H85-H5 LAPSE RATES IN THE 5-6C/KM RANGE. DPVA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP AROUND H7. AS A RESULT...WILL FCST SCT SHWRS
WED...ENDING FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS. DEPTH
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLD
LIGHTNING FLASH...ESPECIALLY OVER OR INVOF THE WATER WHERE THE WARM
AND MOIST BL WILL YIELD A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE COLUMN.

SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP
A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE
LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ.
HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM.

MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE
PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT
AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST.

DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES
TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES
THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD
POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A
RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

VFR. A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OUTSIDE OF SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES.
SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO WORK THROUGH KLGA/KEWR THROUGH 2230Z. WINDS WITH
SEA BREEZES AROUND 8 KT. SEABREEZE DIMINISHES BY AROUND 00-01Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: 180 MAG SEABREEZE THROUGH 24Z. WIND SPEED 8
KT OR LESS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: 170-180 MAG SEABREEZE BTWN 22 AND 24Z. WIND
SPEED 8 KT OR LESS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: 150-170 MAG SEABREEZE BTWN 22 AND 24Z. WIND
SPEED 8 KT OR LESS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...VFR LIKELY. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY. CHC MVFR OR LOWER. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW PM.
GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUE. PERSISTENT/INCREASING E-NE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCA
CONDS TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE. TOO EARLY TO ISSUE SCA FOR THIS
TIME FRAME.

THESE CONDS COULD CONTINUE INTO THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN AND
THE ERN SOUND/BAYS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO
RAPIDLY BUILD AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WED-WED NGT. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/TONGUE








000
FXUS61 KOKX 292055
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
455 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BKN/OVC HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS.
HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES STILL SEEN ON KOKX RADAR MAINLY OVER
MIDDLESEX COUNTY CT ATTM ARE NOT SHOWERS BUT BIRDS...WHICH SHOULD
RETURN TO OLD LYME TO ROOST TOWARD SUNSET. MEANWHILE...TPHL RADAR
SHOWS REAL SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH WITH A STRENGTHENING MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AHEAD OF AN APCHG UPPER TROUGH STREAMING NE INTO
PHILLY METRO ATTM...AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NYC METRO THIS
EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD THEN PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES MAINLY OVER SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT...WHILE
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM SRN NH INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MA CONTINUES SW-WARD...AND PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...
TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE E-NE.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND/LONG ISLAND
PINE BARRENS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITH THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH ON TUE...AND AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW APCHG
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...SHOULD
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PD. E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL ALSO PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO BUT STILL A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRTWV DROPPING INTO NRN MN WILL PASS THRU THE CWA AS A CLOSED H5
LOW ON WED. 12Z MODEL TIMING IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF.
H85-H5 LAPSE RATES IN THE 5-6C/KM RANGE. DPVA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP AROUND H7. AS A RESULT...WILL FCST SCT SHWRS
WED...ENDING FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS. DEPTH
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLD
LIGHTNING FLASH...ESPECIALLY OVER OR INVOF THE WATER WHERE THE WARM
AND MOIST BL WILL YIELD A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE COLUMN.

SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP
A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE
LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ.
HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM.

MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE
PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT
AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST.

DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES
TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES
THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD
POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A
RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES THROUGH TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

VFR. A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OUTSIDE OF SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES.
SEABREEZE PUSHING INTO JFK AS OF 21Z...WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH
KLGA BTWN BETWEEN 22-23Z. WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES AROUND 8-12 KT.
SEABREEZE DIMINISHES BY AROUND 00-01Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT WINDS ARE OFTEN CLOSER TO 220-190
MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
SEA BREEZE AT 8-10 KT COULD PUSH THROUGH BTWN 22-23Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE LIKELY DOES NOT OCCUR. IF IT
DID...IT WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR BETWEEN 22-23Z. WINDS WOULD THEN
SHIFT TO 150-170 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 8 KT OR LESS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...VFR LIKELY. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY. CHC MVFR OR LOWER. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW PM.
GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUE. PERSISTENT/INCREASING E-NE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCA
CONDS TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE. TOO EARLY TO ISSUE SCA FOR THIS
TIME FRAME.

THESE CONDS COULD CONTINUE INTO THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN AND
THE ERN SOUND/BAYS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO
RAPIDLY BUILD AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WED-WED NGT. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/TONGUE








000
FXUS61 KOKX 292055
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
455 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BKN/OVC HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS.
HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES STILL SEEN ON KOKX RADAR MAINLY OVER
MIDDLESEX COUNTY CT ATTM ARE NOT SHOWERS BUT BIRDS...WHICH SHOULD
RETURN TO OLD LYME TO ROOST TOWARD SUNSET. MEANWHILE...TPHL RADAR
SHOWS REAL SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH WITH A STRENGTHENING MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AHEAD OF AN APCHG UPPER TROUGH STREAMING NE INTO
PHILLY METRO ATTM...AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NYC METRO THIS
EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD THEN PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES MAINLY OVER SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT...WHILE
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM SRN NH INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MA CONTINUES SW-WARD...AND PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...
TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE E-NE.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND/LONG ISLAND
PINE BARRENS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITH THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH ON TUE...AND AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW APCHG
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...SHOULD
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PD. E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL ALSO PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO BUT STILL A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRTWV DROPPING INTO NRN MN WILL PASS THRU THE CWA AS A CLOSED H5
LOW ON WED. 12Z MODEL TIMING IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF.
H85-H5 LAPSE RATES IN THE 5-6C/KM RANGE. DPVA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP AROUND H7. AS A RESULT...WILL FCST SCT SHWRS
WED...ENDING FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS. DEPTH
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLD
LIGHTNING FLASH...ESPECIALLY OVER OR INVOF THE WATER WHERE THE WARM
AND MOIST BL WILL YIELD A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE COLUMN.

SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP
A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE
LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ.
HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM.

MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE
PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT
AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST.

DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES
TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES
THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD
POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A
RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES THROUGH TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

VFR. A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OUTSIDE OF SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES.
SEABREEZE PUSHING INTO JFK AS OF 21Z...WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH
KLGA BTWN BETWEEN 22-23Z. WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES AROUND 8-12 KT.
SEABREEZE DIMINISHES BY AROUND 00-01Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT WINDS ARE OFTEN CLOSER TO 220-190
MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
SEA BREEZE AT 8-10 KT COULD PUSH THROUGH BTWN 22-23Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE LIKELY DOES NOT OCCUR. IF IT
DID...IT WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR BETWEEN 22-23Z. WINDS WOULD THEN
SHIFT TO 150-170 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 8 KT OR LESS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...VFR LIKELY. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY. CHC MVFR OR LOWER. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW PM.
GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUE. PERSISTENT/INCREASING E-NE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCA
CONDS TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE. TOO EARLY TO ISSUE SCA FOR THIS
TIME FRAME.

THESE CONDS COULD CONTINUE INTO THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN AND
THE ERN SOUND/BAYS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO
RAPIDLY BUILD AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WED-WED NGT. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/TONGUE







000
FXUS61 KOKX 291950
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
350 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BKN/OVC HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS.
HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES STILL SEEN ON KOKX RADAR MAINLY OVER
MIDDLESEX COUNTY CT ATTM ARE NOT SHOWERS BUT BIRDS...WHICH SHOULD
RETURN TO OLD LYME TO ROOST TOWARD SUNSET. MEANWHILE...TPHL RADAR
SHOWS REAL SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH WITH A STRENGTHENING MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AHEAD OF AN APCHG UPPER TROUGH STREAMING NE INTO
PHILLY METRO ATTM...AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NYC METRO THIS
EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD THEN PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES MAINLY OVER SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT...WHILE
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM SRN NH INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MA CONTINUES SW-WARD...AND PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...
TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE E-NE.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND/LONG ISLAND
PINE BARRENS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITH THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH ON TUE...AND AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW APCHG
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...SHOULD
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PD. E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL ALSO PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO BUT STILL A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHRTWV DROPPING INTO NRN MN WILL PASS THRU THE CWA AS A CLOSED H5
LOW ON WED. 12Z MODEL TIMING IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF.
H85-H5 LAPSE RATES IN THE 5-6C/KM RANGE. DPVA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP AROUND H7. AS A RESULT...WILL FCST SCT SHWRS
WED...ENDING FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS. DEPTH
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLD
LIGHTNING FLASH...ESPECIALLY OVER OR INVOF THE WATER WHERE THE WARM
AND MOIST BL WILL YIELD A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE COLUMN.

SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP
A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE
LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ.
HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM.

MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE
PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT
AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST.

DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES
TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES
THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD
POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A
RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES THROUGH TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OUTSIDE OF SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES.
WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES AROUND 8 KT OR LESS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT WINDS ARE OFTEN CLOSER TO 220-190
MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE AT 8 KT OR LESS COULD
POTENTIALLY PUSH THROUGH AS WELL. TIMING WOULD PROBABLY BE IN THE
RANGE OF 20-22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE LIKELY DOES NOT OCCUR. IF IT
DID...IT WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR BETWEEN 20-22Z. WINDS WOULD THEN SHIFT
TO 150-170 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 8 KT OR LESS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...VFR LIKELY. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY. CHC MVFR OR LOWER. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW PM.
GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUE. PERSISTENT/INCREASING E-NE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCA
CONDS TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE. TOO EARLY TO ISSUE SCA FOR THIS
TIME FRAME.

THESE CONDS COULD CONTINUE INTO THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN AND
THE ERN SOUND/BAYS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO
RAPIDLY BUILD AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WED-WED NGT. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JMC
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/JMC
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JMC






000
FXUS61 KOKX 291950
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
350 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BKN/OVC HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS.
HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES STILL SEEN ON KOKX RADAR MAINLY OVER
MIDDLESEX COUNTY CT ATTM ARE NOT SHOWERS BUT BIRDS...WHICH SHOULD
RETURN TO OLD LYME TO ROOST TOWARD SUNSET. MEANWHILE...TPHL RADAR
SHOWS REAL SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH WITH A STRENGTHENING MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AHEAD OF AN APCHG UPPER TROUGH STREAMING NE INTO
PHILLY METRO ATTM...AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NYC METRO THIS
EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD THEN PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES MAINLY OVER SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT...WHILE
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM SRN NH INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MA CONTINUES SW-WARD...AND PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...
TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE E-NE.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND/LONG ISLAND
PINE BARRENS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITH THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH ON TUE...AND AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW APCHG
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...SHOULD
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PD. E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL ALSO PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO BUT STILL A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHRTWV DROPPING INTO NRN MN WILL PASS THRU THE CWA AS A CLOSED H5
LOW ON WED. 12Z MODEL TIMING IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF.
H85-H5 LAPSE RATES IN THE 5-6C/KM RANGE. DPVA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP AROUND H7. AS A RESULT...WILL FCST SCT SHWRS
WED...ENDING FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS. DEPTH
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLD
LIGHTNING FLASH...ESPECIALLY OVER OR INVOF THE WATER WHERE THE WARM
AND MOIST BL WILL YIELD A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE COLUMN.

SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP
A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE
LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ.
HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM.

MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE
PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT
AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST.

DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES
TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES
THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD
POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A
RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES THROUGH TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OUTSIDE OF SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES.
WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES AROUND 8 KT OR LESS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT WINDS ARE OFTEN CLOSER TO 220-190
MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE AT 8 KT OR LESS COULD
POTENTIALLY PUSH THROUGH AS WELL. TIMING WOULD PROBABLY BE IN THE
RANGE OF 20-22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE LIKELY DOES NOT OCCUR. IF IT
DID...IT WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR BETWEEN 20-22Z. WINDS WOULD THEN SHIFT
TO 150-170 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 8 KT OR LESS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...VFR LIKELY. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY. CHC MVFR OR LOWER. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW PM.
GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUE. PERSISTENT/INCREASING E-NE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCA
CONDS TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE. TOO EARLY TO ISSUE SCA FOR THIS
TIME FRAME.

THESE CONDS COULD CONTINUE INTO THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN AND
THE ERN SOUND/BAYS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO
RAPIDLY BUILD AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WED-WED NGT. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JMC
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/JMC
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JMC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 291744
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
144 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE VERY MILD DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE
NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AS CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY PERSIST. NWP 200-300 HPA MOISTURE FIELDS
SUPPORT THE CIRRUS REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
DESPITE THE BKN-OVC CIRRUS...STILL A PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY AS THE CIRRUS THINS OUT AT TIMES.

HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES SEEN ON KOKX RADAR LATE THIS AM ARE NON-
METEOROLOGICAL PER DUAL-POL CC DATA. THEY ARE IN ALL LIKELIHOOD
BIRDS AS THESE REFLECTIVITIES CAN BE TRACED BACK TO NEAR OLD
LYME RIGHT AS THEY TOOK OFF AROUND SUNRISE.

UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S ON THE HIGH TEMPS - ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL - BUT SHY OF THE RECORDS BY A FEW DEGREES (PERHAPS CLOSE TO
A TIE OF 80F AT KISP).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. SMALL SPREAD
IN THE DETAILS OF THIS FEATURE AS SEEN IN THE 21Z SREF AND THE
THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS...THOUGH THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
FASTER THAN THE REST.

NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW THAT SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTS LOW
POPS TOWARDS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD
BE MORE OF AN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE RATHER THAN MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN.

TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING WITH THE TREND OF GENERALLY DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. THE PCPN RETURNS WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI-SAT.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST TRACKS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST...WELL OFFSHORE MIDWEEK. QUESTION IN PREVIOUS
RUNS HAD BEEN FOCUSED ON HOW CLOSELY IT TRACKS TO THE COAST AND IN
TURN INTERACTS WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. 00Z MODEL RUNS GENERALLY KEEPING IT WELL
OFFSHORE...THOUGH LINGERING JUST CLOSE ENOUGH WHILE DEEPENING TO
ENABLE POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THE PCPN CHC
REMAINS WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW TREKKING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...APPROACHING THE AREA WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
THIS...COMBINING WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SHOWERS WED. TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN SO WILL HOLD AT CHC
POPS...BUT CAN EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH SUBSEQUENT
RUNS...AND THUS INCREASING POPS LATE TUES NIGHT HEADING THROUGH THE
DAY WED. ALL THE MODELS...MINUS THE 00Z NAM...SUGGEST GENERALLY
LIGHT PCPN AMTS OVER THE AREA. THE NAM HAS THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE...IN FACT EVEN FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALOFT...AND THUS
PRODUCES A MUCH HIGHER AMT OVER THE AREA. BEING SUCH AN OUTLIER...AM
NOT CONSIDERING AT THIS TIME.

SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THURSDAY. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
THURS AFTN FROM WEST TO EAST...IF NOT SOONER. DRY WEATHER IN PLACE
THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THE MOMENT...HAVE PCPN MOVING IN BY FRI EVENING OVER WESTERN
AREAS...SPREADING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND ON INTO SAT. AN WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT ON SAT SHOULD CONTINUE THE CHC
FOR PCPN SAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SAT...WITH THINGS FINALLY
CLEARING BY SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING...SO INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER END CHC. THE MAIN QUESTION
IS JUST IF THE PCPN STARTS TOO EARLY...IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ON
LONGER TO SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN ANY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK HOVERING RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL. A STRONG SURGE OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND WILL
DROP TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES THROUGH TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OUTSIDE OF SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES.
WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES AROUND 8 KT OR LESS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT WINDS ARE OFTEN CLOSER TO 220-190
MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE AT 8 KT OR LESS COULD
POTENTIALLY PUSH THROUGH AS WELL. TIMING WOULD PROBABLY BE IN THE
RANGE OF 20-22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE LIKELY DOES NOT OCCUR. IF IT
DID...IT WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR BETWEEN 20-22Z. WINDS WOULD THEN SHIFT
TO 150-170 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 8 KT OR LESS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE/TUE NIGHT...VFR LIKELY. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THURSDAY...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRIDAY...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SATURDAY...RAIN LIKELY. CHC MVFR OR LOWER. SW WINDS AM BCMG WNW PM.
GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

INCREASING WINDS TUES NIGHT-WED...WITH 25 KT GUSTS EXPECTED ON
THE OCEAN WATERS BY WED MORNING. POSSIBLE SCA GUSTS OVER THE OTHER
WATERS...DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW OFFSHORE SETS UP. SEAS
WILL BUILD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...WITH 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE WED
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFING THURS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING WINDS
ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH CURRENTLY
EXPECTING GUSTS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON
THE NON OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAIRLY LIGHT BASIN
AVG QPF FOR MID WEEK. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF
TOTALS OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT...HOWEVER THE 00Z NAM PLACES A
BULLS EYE OF HEAVIER QPF OVER THE AREA. WITH THE NAM BEING AN
OUTLIER ON THE OTHER SOLUTIONS...AM NOT FORECASTING SUCH TOTALS AT
THE TIME. SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW LINGERING
NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES
TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/TONGUE








000
FXUS61 KOKX 291744
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
144 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE VERY MILD DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE
NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AS CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY PERSIST. NWP 200-300 HPA MOISTURE FIELDS
SUPPORT THE CIRRUS REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
DESPITE THE BKN-OVC CIRRUS...STILL A PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY AS THE CIRRUS THINS OUT AT TIMES.

HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES SEEN ON KOKX RADAR LATE THIS AM ARE NON-
METEOROLOGICAL PER DUAL-POL CC DATA. THEY ARE IN ALL LIKELIHOOD
BIRDS AS THESE REFLECTIVITIES CAN BE TRACED BACK TO NEAR OLD
LYME RIGHT AS THEY TOOK OFF AROUND SUNRISE.

UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S ON THE HIGH TEMPS - ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL - BUT SHY OF THE RECORDS BY A FEW DEGREES (PERHAPS CLOSE TO
A TIE OF 80F AT KISP).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. SMALL SPREAD
IN THE DETAILS OF THIS FEATURE AS SEEN IN THE 21Z SREF AND THE
THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS...THOUGH THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
FASTER THAN THE REST.

NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW THAT SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTS LOW
POPS TOWARDS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD
BE MORE OF AN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE RATHER THAN MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN.

TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING WITH THE TREND OF GENERALLY DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. THE PCPN RETURNS WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI-SAT.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST TRACKS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST...WELL OFFSHORE MIDWEEK. QUESTION IN PREVIOUS
RUNS HAD BEEN FOCUSED ON HOW CLOSELY IT TRACKS TO THE COAST AND IN
TURN INTERACTS WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. 00Z MODEL RUNS GENERALLY KEEPING IT WELL
OFFSHORE...THOUGH LINGERING JUST CLOSE ENOUGH WHILE DEEPENING TO
ENABLE POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THE PCPN CHC
REMAINS WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW TREKKING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...APPROACHING THE AREA WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
THIS...COMBINING WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SHOWERS WED. TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN SO WILL HOLD AT CHC
POPS...BUT CAN EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH SUBSEQUENT
RUNS...AND THUS INCREASING POPS LATE TUES NIGHT HEADING THROUGH THE
DAY WED. ALL THE MODELS...MINUS THE 00Z NAM...SUGGEST GENERALLY
LIGHT PCPN AMTS OVER THE AREA. THE NAM HAS THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE...IN FACT EVEN FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALOFT...AND THUS
PRODUCES A MUCH HIGHER AMT OVER THE AREA. BEING SUCH AN OUTLIER...AM
NOT CONSIDERING AT THIS TIME.

SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THURSDAY. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
THURS AFTN FROM WEST TO EAST...IF NOT SOONER. DRY WEATHER IN PLACE
THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THE MOMENT...HAVE PCPN MOVING IN BY FRI EVENING OVER WESTERN
AREAS...SPREADING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND ON INTO SAT. AN WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT ON SAT SHOULD CONTINUE THE CHC
FOR PCPN SAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SAT...WITH THINGS FINALLY
CLEARING BY SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING...SO INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER END CHC. THE MAIN QUESTION
IS JUST IF THE PCPN STARTS TOO EARLY...IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ON
LONGER TO SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN ANY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK HOVERING RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL. A STRONG SURGE OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND WILL
DROP TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES THROUGH TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OUTSIDE OF SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES.
WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES AROUND 8 KT OR LESS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT WINDS ARE OFTEN CLOSER TO 220-190
MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE AT 8 KT OR LESS COULD
POTENTIALLY PUSH THROUGH AS WELL. TIMING WOULD PROBABLY BE IN THE
RANGE OF 20-22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE LIKELY DOES NOT OCCUR. IF IT
DID...IT WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR BETWEEN 20-22Z. WINDS WOULD THEN SHIFT
TO 150-170 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 8 KT OR LESS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE/TUE NIGHT...VFR LIKELY. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THURSDAY...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRIDAY...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SATURDAY...RAIN LIKELY. CHC MVFR OR LOWER. SW WINDS AM BCMG WNW PM.
GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

INCREASING WINDS TUES NIGHT-WED...WITH 25 KT GUSTS EXPECTED ON
THE OCEAN WATERS BY WED MORNING. POSSIBLE SCA GUSTS OVER THE OTHER
WATERS...DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW OFFSHORE SETS UP. SEAS
WILL BUILD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...WITH 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE WED
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFING THURS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING WINDS
ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH CURRENTLY
EXPECTING GUSTS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON
THE NON OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAIRLY LIGHT BASIN
AVG QPF FOR MID WEEK. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF
TOTALS OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT...HOWEVER THE 00Z NAM PLACES A
BULLS EYE OF HEAVIER QPF OVER THE AREA. WITH THE NAM BEING AN
OUTLIER ON THE OTHER SOLUTIONS...AM NOT FORECASTING SUCH TOTALS AT
THE TIME. SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW LINGERING
NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES
TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/TONGUE







000
FXUS61 KOKX 291546
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1146 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE VERY MILD DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE
NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AS CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY PERSIST. NWP 200-300 HPA MOISTURE FIELDS
SUPPORT THE CIRRUS REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
DESPITE THE BKN-OVC CIRRUS...STILL A PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY AS THE CIRRUS THINS OUT AT TIMES.

HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES SEEN ON KOKX RADAR LATE THIS AM ARE NON-
METEOROLOGICAL PER DUAL-POL CC DATA. THEY ARE IN ALL LIKELIHOOD
BIRDS AS THESE REFLECTIVITIES CAN BE TRACED BACK TO NEAR OLD
LYME RIGHT AS THEY TOOK OFF AROUND SUNRISE.

UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S ON THE HIGH TEMPS - ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL - BUT SHY OF THE RECORDS BY A FEW DEGREES (PERHAPS CLOSE TO
A TIE OF 80F AT KISP).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. SMALL SPREAD
IN THE DETAILS OF THIS FEATURE AS SEEN IN THE 21Z SREF AND THE
THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS...THOUGH THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
FASTER THAN THE REST.

NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW THAT SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTS LOW
POPS TOWARDS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD
BE MORE OF AN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE RATHER THAN MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN.

TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING WITH THE TREND OF GENERALLY DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. THE PCPN RETURNS WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI-SAT.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST TRACKS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST...WELL OFFSHORE MIDWEEK. QUESTION IN PREVIOUS
RUNS HAD BEEN FOCUSED ON HOW CLOSELY IT TRACKS TO THE COAST AND IN
TURN INTERACTS WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. 00Z MODEL RUNS GENERALLY KEEPING IT WELL
OFFSHORE...THOUGH LINGERING JUST CLOSE ENOUGH WHILE DEEPENING TO
ENABLE POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THE PCPN CHC
REMAINS WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW TREKKING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...APPROACHING THE AREA WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
THIS...COMBINING WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SHOWERS WED. TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN SO WILL HOLD AT CHC
POPS...BUT CAN EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH SUBSEQUENT
RUNS...AND THUS INCREASING POPS LATE TUES NIGHT HEADING THROUGH THE
DAY WED. ALL THE MODELS...MINUS THE 00Z NAM...SUGGEST GENERALLY
LIGHT PCPN AMTS OVER THE AREA. THE NAM HAS THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE...IN FACT EVEN FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALOFT...AND THUS
PRODUCES A MUCH HIGHER AMT OVER THE AREA. BEING SUCH AN OUTLIER...AM
NOT CONSIDERING AT THIS TIME.

SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THURSDAY. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
THURS AFTN FROM WEST TO EAST...IF NOT SOONER. DRY WEATHER IN PLACE
THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THE MOMENT...HAVE PCPN MOVING IN BY FRI EVENING OVER WESTERN
AREAS...SPREADING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND ON INTO SAT. AN WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT ON SAT SHOULD CONTINUE THE CHC
FOR PCPN SAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SAT...WITH THINGS FINALLY
CLEARING BY SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING...SO INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER END CHC. THE MAIN QUESTION
IS JUST IF THE PCPN STARTS TOO EARLY...IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ON
LONGER TO SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN ANY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK HOVERING RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL. A STRONG SURGE OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND WILL
DROP TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST TODAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT FOLLOWS THIS EVENING.

VFR. LIGHT FLOW...BUT MOSTLY WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT...WILL GIVE
WAY TO SEA BREEZES FOR SOME TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE PROBABLE BETWEEN 17-19Z. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE SEA BREEZE DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH. WINDS WOULD
OTHERWISE REMAIN VARIABLE WITH MAINLY A WESTERLY COMPONENT UNDER 8
KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18-20Z. WINDS
WOULD SHIFT TO 180-200 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 8 KT OR
LESS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE LIKELY DOES NOT OCCUR. IF IT
DID...IT WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR BETWEEN 19-21Z. WINDS WOULD THEN SHIFT
TO 150-170 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 8 KT OR LESS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT SEA BREEZE DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH.
IT IF DOES NOT...WINDS PROBABLY REMAIN VARIABLE WITH MAINLY A
WESTERLY COMPONENT UNDER 8 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUE-WED...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN RAIN. BEST CHANCES EAST OF
KNYC TERMINALS. E-NE WINDS 10-15 KT.
.THURSDAY..VFR. NE WINDS 5-10 KT.
.FRIDAY...MVFR CONDS IN -SHRA POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE. SE-S WINDS
5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

INCREASING WINDS TUES NIGHT-WED...WITH 25 KT GUSTS EXPECTED ON
THE OCEAN WATERS BY WED MORNING. POSSIBLE SCA GUSTS OVER THE OTHER
WATERS...DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW OFFSHORE SETS UP. SEAS
WILL BUILD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...WITH 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE WED
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFING THURS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING WINDS
ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH CURRENTLY
EXPECTING GUSTS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON
THE NON OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAIRLY LIGHT BASIN
AVG QPF FOR MID WEEK. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF
TOTALS OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT...HOWEVER THE 00Z NAM PLACES A
BULLS EYE OF HEAVIER QPF OVER THE AREA. WITH THE NAM BEING AN
OUTLIER ON THE OTHER SOLUTIONS...AM NOT FORECASTING SUCH TOTALS AT
THE TIME. SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW LINGERING
NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES
TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/TONGUE








000
FXUS61 KOKX 291546
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1146 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE VERY MILD DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE
NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AS CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY PERSIST. NWP 200-300 HPA MOISTURE FIELDS
SUPPORT THE CIRRUS REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
DESPITE THE BKN-OVC CIRRUS...STILL A PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY AS THE CIRRUS THINS OUT AT TIMES.

HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES SEEN ON KOKX RADAR LATE THIS AM ARE NON-
METEOROLOGICAL PER DUAL-POL CC DATA. THEY ARE IN ALL LIKELIHOOD
BIRDS AS THESE REFLECTIVITIES CAN BE TRACED BACK TO NEAR OLD
LYME RIGHT AS THEY TOOK OFF AROUND SUNRISE.

UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S ON THE HIGH TEMPS - ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL - BUT SHY OF THE RECORDS BY A FEW DEGREES (PERHAPS CLOSE TO
A TIE OF 80F AT KISP).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. SMALL SPREAD
IN THE DETAILS OF THIS FEATURE AS SEEN IN THE 21Z SREF AND THE
THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS...THOUGH THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
FASTER THAN THE REST.

NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW THAT SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTS LOW
POPS TOWARDS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD
BE MORE OF AN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE RATHER THAN MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN.

TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING WITH THE TREND OF GENERALLY DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. THE PCPN RETURNS WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI-SAT.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST TRACKS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST...WELL OFFSHORE MIDWEEK. QUESTION IN PREVIOUS
RUNS HAD BEEN FOCUSED ON HOW CLOSELY IT TRACKS TO THE COAST AND IN
TURN INTERACTS WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. 00Z MODEL RUNS GENERALLY KEEPING IT WELL
OFFSHORE...THOUGH LINGERING JUST CLOSE ENOUGH WHILE DEEPENING TO
ENABLE POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THE PCPN CHC
REMAINS WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW TREKKING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...APPROACHING THE AREA WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
THIS...COMBINING WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SHOWERS WED. TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN SO WILL HOLD AT CHC
POPS...BUT CAN EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH SUBSEQUENT
RUNS...AND THUS INCREASING POPS LATE TUES NIGHT HEADING THROUGH THE
DAY WED. ALL THE MODELS...MINUS THE 00Z NAM...SUGGEST GENERALLY
LIGHT PCPN AMTS OVER THE AREA. THE NAM HAS THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE...IN FACT EVEN FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALOFT...AND THUS
PRODUCES A MUCH HIGHER AMT OVER THE AREA. BEING SUCH AN OUTLIER...AM
NOT CONSIDERING AT THIS TIME.

SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THURSDAY. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
THURS AFTN FROM WEST TO EAST...IF NOT SOONER. DRY WEATHER IN PLACE
THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THE MOMENT...HAVE PCPN MOVING IN BY FRI EVENING OVER WESTERN
AREAS...SPREADING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND ON INTO SAT. AN WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT ON SAT SHOULD CONTINUE THE CHC
FOR PCPN SAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SAT...WITH THINGS FINALLY
CLEARING BY SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING...SO INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER END CHC. THE MAIN QUESTION
IS JUST IF THE PCPN STARTS TOO EARLY...IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ON
LONGER TO SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN ANY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK HOVERING RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL. A STRONG SURGE OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND WILL
DROP TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST TODAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT FOLLOWS THIS EVENING.

VFR. LIGHT FLOW...BUT MOSTLY WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT...WILL GIVE
WAY TO SEA BREEZES FOR SOME TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE PROBABLE BETWEEN 17-19Z. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE SEA BREEZE DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH. WINDS WOULD
OTHERWISE REMAIN VARIABLE WITH MAINLY A WESTERLY COMPONENT UNDER 8
KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18-20Z. WINDS
WOULD SHIFT TO 180-200 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 8 KT OR
LESS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE LIKELY DOES NOT OCCUR. IF IT
DID...IT WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR BETWEEN 19-21Z. WINDS WOULD THEN SHIFT
TO 150-170 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 8 KT OR LESS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT SEA BREEZE DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH.
IT IF DOES NOT...WINDS PROBABLY REMAIN VARIABLE WITH MAINLY A
WESTERLY COMPONENT UNDER 8 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUE-WED...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN RAIN. BEST CHANCES EAST OF
KNYC TERMINALS. E-NE WINDS 10-15 KT.
.THURSDAY..VFR. NE WINDS 5-10 KT.
.FRIDAY...MVFR CONDS IN -SHRA POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE. SE-S WINDS
5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

INCREASING WINDS TUES NIGHT-WED...WITH 25 KT GUSTS EXPECTED ON
THE OCEAN WATERS BY WED MORNING. POSSIBLE SCA GUSTS OVER THE OTHER
WATERS...DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW OFFSHORE SETS UP. SEAS
WILL BUILD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...WITH 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE WED
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFING THURS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING WINDS
ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH CURRENTLY
EXPECTING GUSTS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON
THE NON OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAIRLY LIGHT BASIN
AVG QPF FOR MID WEEK. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF
TOTALS OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT...HOWEVER THE 00Z NAM PLACES A
BULLS EYE OF HEAVIER QPF OVER THE AREA. WITH THE NAM BEING AN
OUTLIER ON THE OTHER SOLUTIONS...AM NOT FORECASTING SUCH TOTALS AT
THE TIME. SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW LINGERING
NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES
TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/TONGUE







000
FXUS61 KOKX 291519
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1119 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE VERY MILD DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE
NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AS CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY PERSIST. NWP 200-300 HPA MOISTURE FIELDS
SUPPORT THE CIRRUS REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
DESPITE THE BKN-OVC CIRRUS...STILL A PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY AS THE CIRRUS THINS OUT AT TIMES.

UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S ON THE HIGH TEMPS - ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL - BUT SHY OF THE RECORDS BY A FEW DEGREES (PERHAPS CLOSE TO
A TIE OF 80F AT KISP).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. SMALL SPREAD
IN THE DETAILS OF THIS FEATURE AS SEEN IN THE 21Z SREF AND THE
THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS...THOUGH THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
FASTER THAN THE REST.

NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW THAT SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTS LOW
POPS TOWARDS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD
BE MORE OF AN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE RATHER THAN MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN.

TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING WITH THE TREND OF GENERALLY DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. THE PCPN RETURNS WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI-SAT.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST TRACKS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST...WELL OFFSHORE MIDWEEK. QUESTION IN PREVIOUS
RUNS HAD BEEN FOCUSED ON HOW CLOSELY IT TRACKS TO THE COAST AND IN
TURN INTERACTS WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. 00Z MODEL RUNS GENERALLY KEEPING IT WELL
OFFSHORE...THOUGH LINGERING JUST CLOSE ENOUGH WHILE DEEPENING TO
ENABLE POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THE PCPN CHC
REMAINS WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW TREKKING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...APPROACHING THE AREA WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
THIS...COMBINING WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SHOWERS WED. TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN SO WILL HOLD AT CHC
POPS...BUT CAN EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH SUBSEQUENT
RUNS...AND THUS INCREASING POPS LATE TUES NIGHT HEADING THROUGH THE
DAY WED. ALL THE MODELS...MINUS THE 00Z NAM...SUGGEST GENERALLY
LIGHT PCPN AMTS OVER THE AREA. THE NAM HAS THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE...IN FACT EVEN FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALOFT...AND THUS
PRODUCES A MUCH HIGHER AMT OVER THE AREA. BEING SUCH AN OUTLIER...AM
NOT CONSIDERING AT THIS TIME.

SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THURSDAY. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
THURS AFTN FROM WEST TO EAST...IF NOT SOONER. DRY WEATHER IN PLACE
THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THE MOMENT...HAVE PCPN MOVING IN BY FRI EVENING OVER WESTERN
AREAS...SPREADING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND ON INTO SAT. AN WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT ON SAT SHOULD CONTINUE THE CHC
FOR PCPN SAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SAT...WITH THINGS FINALLY
CLEARING BY SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING...SO INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER END CHC. THE MAIN QUESTION
IS JUST IF THE PCPN STARTS TOO EARLY...IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ON
LONGER TO SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN ANY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK HOVERING RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL. A STRONG SURGE OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND WILL
DROP TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST TODAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT FOLLOWS THIS EVENING.

VFR. LIGHT FLOW...BUT MOSTLY WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT...WILL GIVE
WAY TO SEA BREEZES FOR SOME TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE PROBABLE BETWEEN 17-19Z. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE SEA BREEZE DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH. WINDS WOULD
OTHERWISE REMAIN VARIABLE WITH MAINLY A WESTERLY COMPONENT UNDER 8
KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18-20Z. WINDS
WOULD SHIFT TO 180-200 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 8 KT OR
LESS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE LIKELY DOES NOT OCCUR. IF IT
DID...IT WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR BETWEEN 19-21Z. WINDS WOULD THEN SHIFT
TO 150-170 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 8 KT OR LESS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT SEA BREEZE DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH.
IT IF DOES NOT...WINDS PROBABLY REMAIN VARIABLE WITH MAINLY A
WESTERLY COMPONENT UNDER 8 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUE-WED...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN RAIN. BEST CHANCES EAST OF
KNYC TERMINALS. E-NE WINDS 10-15 KT.
.THURSDAY..VFR. NE WINDS 5-10 KT.
.FRIDAY...MVFR CONDS IN -SHRA POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE. SE-S WINDS
5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

INCREASING WINDS TUES NIGHT-WED...WITH 25 KT GUSTS EXPECTED ON
THE OCEAN WATERS BY WED MORNING. POSSIBLE SCA GUSTS OVER THE OTHER
WATERS...DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW OFFSHORE SETS UP. SEAS
WILL BUILD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...WITH 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE WED
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFING THURS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING WINDS
ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH CURRENTLY
EXPECTING GUSTS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON
THE NON OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAIRLY LIGHT BASIN
AVG QPF FOR MID WEEK. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF
TOTALS OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT...HOWEVER THE 00Z NAM PLACES A
BULLS EYE OF HEAVIER QPF OVER THE AREA. WITH THE NAM BEING AN
OUTLIER ON THE OTHER SOLUTIONS...AM NOT FORECASTING SUCH TOTALS AT
THE TIME. SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW LINGERING
NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES
TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/TONGUE







000
FXUS61 KOKX 291519
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1119 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE VERY MILD DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE
NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AS CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY PERSIST. NWP 200-300 HPA MOISTURE FIELDS
SUPPORT THE CIRRUS REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
DESPITE THE BKN-OVC CIRRUS...STILL A PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY AS THE CIRRUS THINS OUT AT TIMES.

UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S ON THE HIGH TEMPS - ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL - BUT SHY OF THE RECORDS BY A FEW DEGREES (PERHAPS CLOSE TO
A TIE OF 80F AT KISP).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. SMALL SPREAD
IN THE DETAILS OF THIS FEATURE AS SEEN IN THE 21Z SREF AND THE
THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS...THOUGH THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
FASTER THAN THE REST.

NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW THAT SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTS LOW
POPS TOWARDS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD
BE MORE OF AN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE RATHER THAN MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN.

TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING WITH THE TREND OF GENERALLY DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. THE PCPN RETURNS WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI-SAT.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST TRACKS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST...WELL OFFSHORE MIDWEEK. QUESTION IN PREVIOUS
RUNS HAD BEEN FOCUSED ON HOW CLOSELY IT TRACKS TO THE COAST AND IN
TURN INTERACTS WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. 00Z MODEL RUNS GENERALLY KEEPING IT WELL
OFFSHORE...THOUGH LINGERING JUST CLOSE ENOUGH WHILE DEEPENING TO
ENABLE POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THE PCPN CHC
REMAINS WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW TREKKING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...APPROACHING THE AREA WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
THIS...COMBINING WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SHOWERS WED. TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN SO WILL HOLD AT CHC
POPS...BUT CAN EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH SUBSEQUENT
RUNS...AND THUS INCREASING POPS LATE TUES NIGHT HEADING THROUGH THE
DAY WED. ALL THE MODELS...MINUS THE 00Z NAM...SUGGEST GENERALLY
LIGHT PCPN AMTS OVER THE AREA. THE NAM HAS THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE...IN FACT EVEN FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALOFT...AND THUS
PRODUCES A MUCH HIGHER AMT OVER THE AREA. BEING SUCH AN OUTLIER...AM
NOT CONSIDERING AT THIS TIME.

SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THURSDAY. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
THURS AFTN FROM WEST TO EAST...IF NOT SOONER. DRY WEATHER IN PLACE
THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THE MOMENT...HAVE PCPN MOVING IN BY FRI EVENING OVER WESTERN
AREAS...SPREADING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND ON INTO SAT. AN WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT ON SAT SHOULD CONTINUE THE CHC
FOR PCPN SAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SAT...WITH THINGS FINALLY
CLEARING BY SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING...SO INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER END CHC. THE MAIN QUESTION
IS JUST IF THE PCPN STARTS TOO EARLY...IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ON
LONGER TO SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN ANY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK HOVERING RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL. A STRONG SURGE OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND WILL
DROP TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST TODAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT FOLLOWS THIS EVENING.

VFR. LIGHT FLOW...BUT MOSTLY WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT...WILL GIVE
WAY TO SEA BREEZES FOR SOME TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE PROBABLE BETWEEN 17-19Z. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE SEA BREEZE DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH. WINDS WOULD
OTHERWISE REMAIN VARIABLE WITH MAINLY A WESTERLY COMPONENT UNDER 8
KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18-20Z. WINDS
WOULD SHIFT TO 180-200 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 8 KT OR
LESS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE LIKELY DOES NOT OCCUR. IF IT
DID...IT WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR BETWEEN 19-21Z. WINDS WOULD THEN SHIFT
TO 150-170 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 8 KT OR LESS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT SEA BREEZE DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH.
IT IF DOES NOT...WINDS PROBABLY REMAIN VARIABLE WITH MAINLY A
WESTERLY COMPONENT UNDER 8 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUE-WED...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN RAIN. BEST CHANCES EAST OF
KNYC TERMINALS. E-NE WINDS 10-15 KT.
.THURSDAY..VFR. NE WINDS 5-10 KT.
.FRIDAY...MVFR CONDS IN -SHRA POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE. SE-S WINDS
5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

INCREASING WINDS TUES NIGHT-WED...WITH 25 KT GUSTS EXPECTED ON
THE OCEAN WATERS BY WED MORNING. POSSIBLE SCA GUSTS OVER THE OTHER
WATERS...DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW OFFSHORE SETS UP. SEAS
WILL BUILD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...WITH 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE WED
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFING THURS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING WINDS
ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH CURRENTLY
EXPECTING GUSTS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON
THE NON OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAIRLY LIGHT BASIN
AVG QPF FOR MID WEEK. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF
TOTALS OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT...HOWEVER THE 00Z NAM PLACES A
BULLS EYE OF HEAVIER QPF OVER THE AREA. WITH THE NAM BEING AN
OUTLIER ON THE OTHER SOLUTIONS...AM NOT FORECASTING SUCH TOTALS AT
THE TIME. SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW LINGERING
NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES
TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/TONGUE








000
FXUS61 KOKX 291441
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1041 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE VERY MILD DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES AFFECTS THE NORTHEAST
MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT PASSES THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AS CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY PERSIST. NWP 200-300 HPA MOISTURE FIELDS
SUPPORT THE CIRRUS REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
DESPITE THE BKN-OVC CIRRUS, STILL A PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY AS THE CIRRUS THINS OUT AT TIMES.

UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S ON THE HIGH TEMPS - ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL - BUT SHY OF THE RECORDS BY A FEW DEGREES (PERHAPS A TIE OF
80F AT KISP).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. SMALL SPREAD
IN THE DETAILS OF THIS FEATURE AS SEEN IN THE 21Z SREF AND THE
THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS...THOUGHT THE ECMWF SEEMS FASTER THAN
THE REST.

NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW THAT SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTS LOW
POPS TOWARDS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD
BE MORE OF AN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE RATHER THAN MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN.

TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING WITH THE TREND OF GENERALLY DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. THE PCPN RETURNS WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI-SAT.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST TRACKS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST...WELL OFFSHORE MIDWEEK. QUESTION IN PREVIOUS
RUNS HAD BEEN FOCUSED ON HOW CLOSELY IT TRACKS TO THE COAST AND IN
TURN INTERACTS WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. 00Z MODEL RUNS GENERALLY KEEPING IT WELL
OFFSHORE...THOUGH LINGERING JUST CLOSE ENOUGH WHILE DEEPENING TO
ENABLE POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THE PCPN CHC
REMAINS WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW TREKKING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...APPROACHING THE AREA WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
THIS...COMBINING WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SHOWERS WED. TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN SO WILL HOLD AT CHC
POPS...BUT CAN EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH SUBSEQUENT
RUNS...AND THUS INCREASING POPS LATE TUES NIGHT HEADING THROUGH THE
DAY WED. ALL THE MODELS...MINUS THE 00Z NAM...SUGGEST GENERALLY
LIGHT PCPN AMTS OVER THE AREA. THE NAM HAS THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE...IN FACT EVEN FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALOFT...AND THUS
PRODUCES A MUCH HIGHER AMT OVER THE AREA. BEING SUCH AN OUTLIER...AM
NOT CONSIDERING AT THIS TIME.

SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THURSDAY. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
THURS AFTN FROM WEST TO EAST...IF NOT SOONER. DRY WEATHER IN PLACE
THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THE MOMENT...HAVE PCPN MOVING IN BY FRI EVENING OVER WESTERN
AREAS...SPREADING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND ON INTO SAT. AN WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT ON SAT SHOULD CONTINUE THE CHC
FOR PCPN SAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SAT...WITH THINGS FINALLY
CLEARING BY SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING...SO INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER END CHC. THE MAIN QUESTION
IS JUST IF THE PCPN STARTS TOO EARLY...IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ON
LONGER TO SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN ANY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK HOVERING RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL. A STRONG SURGE OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND WILL
DROP TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST TODAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT FOLLOWS THIS EVENING.

VFR. LIGHT FLOW...BUT MOSTLY WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT...WILL GIVE
WAY TO SEA BREEZES FOR SOME TERMINALS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE PROBABLE BETWEEN 17-19Z. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE SEA BREEZE DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH. WINDS WOULD
OTHERWISE REMAIN VARIABLE WITH MAINLY A WESTERLY COMPONENT UNDER 8
KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18-20Z. WINDS
WOULD SHIFT TO 180-200 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 8 KT OR
LESS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE LIKELY DOES NOT OCCUR. IF IT
DID...IT WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR BETWEEN 19-21Z. WINDS WOULD THEN SHIFT
TO 150-170 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 8 KT OR LESS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT SEA BREEZE DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH.
IT IF DOES NOT...WINDS PROBABLY REMAIN VARIABLE WITH MAINLY A
WESTERLY COMPONENT UNDER 8 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUE-WED...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN RAIN. BEST CHANCES EAST OF
KNYC TERMINALS. E-NE WINDS 10-15 KT.
.THURSDAY..VFR. NE WINDS 5-10 KT.
.FRIDAY...MVFR CONDS IN -SHRA POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE. SE-S WINDS
5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

INCREASING WINDS TUES NIGHT-WED...WITH 25 KTS GUSTS EXPECTED ON
THE OCEAN WATERS BY WED MORNING. POSSIBLE SCA GUSTS OVER THE OTHER
WATERS...DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW OFFSHORE SETS UP. SEAS
WILL BUILD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...WITH 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE WED
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFING THURS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING WINDS
ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH CURRENTLY
EXPECTING GUSTS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KTS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON
THE NON OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAIRLY LIGHT BASIN
AVG QPF FOR MID WEEK. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF
TOTALS OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT...HOWEVER THE 00Z NAM PLACES A
BULLS EYE OF HEAVIER QPF OVER THE AREA. WITH THE NAM BEING AN
OUTLIER ON THE OTHER SOLUTIONS...AM NOT FORECASTING SUCH TOTALS AT
THE TIME. SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW LINGERING
NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES
TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/TONGUE








000
FXUS61 KOKX 291121
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
721 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE VERY MILD DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES AFFECTS THE NORTHEAST
MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT PASSES THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AS CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY PERSIST. NWP 200-300 HPA MOISTURE FIELDS
SUPPORT THE CIRRUS REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
DESPITE THE BKN-OVC CIRRUS, STILL A PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY AS THE CIRRUS THINS OUT AT TIMES.

UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S ON THE HIGH TEMPS - ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL - BUT SHY OF THE RECORDS BY A FEW DEGREES (PERHAPS A TIE OF
80F AT KISP).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. SMALL SPREAD
IN THE DETAILS OF THIS FEATURE AS SEEN IN THE 21Z SREF AND THE
THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS...THOUGHT THE ECMWF SEEMS FASTER THAN
THE REST.

NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW THAT SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTS LOW
POPS TOWARDS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD
BE MORE OF AN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE RATHER THAN MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN.

TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING WITH THE TREND OF GENERALLY DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. THE PCPN RETURNS WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI-SAT.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST TRACKS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST...WELL OFFSHORE MIDWEEK. QUESTION IN PREVIOUS
RUNS HAD BEEN FOCUSED ON HOW CLOSELY IT TRACKS TO THE COAST AND IN
TURN INTERACTS WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. 00Z MODEL RUNS GENERALLY KEEPING IT WELL
OFFSHORE...THOUGH LINGERING JUST CLOSE ENOUGH WHILE DEEPENING TO
ENABLE POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THE PCPN CHC
REMAINS WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW TREKKING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...APPROACHING THE AREA WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
THIS...COMBINING WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SHOWERS WED. TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN SO WILL HOLD AT CHC
POPS...BUT CAN EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH SUBSEQUENT
RUNS...AND THUS INCREASING POPS LATE TUES NIGHT HEADING THROUGH THE
DAY WED. ALL THE MODELS...MINUS THE 00Z NAM...SUGGEST GENERALLY
LIGHT PCPN AMTS OVER THE AREA. THE NAM HAS THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE...IN FACT EVEN FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALOFT...AND THUS
PRODUCES A MUCH HIGHER AMT OVER THE AREA. BEING SUCH AN OUTLIER...AM
NOT CONSIDERING AT THIS TIME.

SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THURSDAY. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
THURS AFTN FROM WEST TO EAST...IF NOT SOONER. DRY WEATHER IN PLACE
THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THE MOMENT...HAVE PCPN MOVING IN BY FRI EVENING OVER WESTERN
AREAS...SPREADING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND ON INTO SAT. AN WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT ON SAT SHOULD CONTINUE THE CHC
FOR PCPN SAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SAT...WITH THINGS FINALLY
CLEARING BY SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING...SO INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER END CHC. THE MAIN QUESTION
IS JUST IF THE PCPN STARTS TOO EARLY...IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ON
LONGER TO SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN ANY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK HOVERING RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL. A STRONG SURGE OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND WILL
DROP TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. ANY PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 12-13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS WITH INCREASING CIRRUS AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SW FLOW 5-7 KT WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES...GENERALLY
10 KT OR LESS.

WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. LIGHT EAST WINDS
DEVELOP PRIOR TO 12Z TUESDAY...AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THEN AS WELL.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE LIKELY BETWEEN 17-19Z. WINDS SHIFT
TO 180-200 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 10 KT OR LESS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18-20Z. WINDS
SHIFT TO 180-200 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 10 KT OR LESS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CONFIDENCE LOW ON SEA BREEZE BETWEEN 19-21Z.
WINDS COULD SHIFT TO 150-170 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 10 KT
OR LESS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEA BREEZE AFTER 19Z. WIND
SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE LIKELY BETWEEN 16-18Z. WINDS SHIFT
TO 180-200 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 10 KT OR LESS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN RAIN. BEST CHANCES EAST OF
KNYC TERMINALS. E-NE WINDS 10-15 KT.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...MVFR CONDS IN -SHRA POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

INCREASING WINDS TUES NIGHT-WED...WITH 25 KTS GUSTS EXPECTED ON
THE OCEAN WATERS BY WED MORNING. POSSIBLE SCA GUSTS OVER THE OTHER
WATERS...DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW OFFSHORE SETS UP. SEAS
WILL BUILD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...WITH 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE WED
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFING THURS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING WINDS
ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH CURRENTLY
EXPECTING GUSTS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KTS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON
THE NON OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAIRLY LIGHT BASIN
AVG QPF FOR MID WEEK. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF
TOTALS OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT...HOWEVER THE 00Z NAM PLACES A
BULLS EYE OF HEAVIER QPF OVER THE AREA. WITH THE NAM BEING AN
OUTLIER ON THE OTHER SOLUTIONS...AM NOT FORECASTING SUCH TOTALS AT
THE TIME. SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW LINGERING
NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES
TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/TONGUE







000
FXUS61 KOKX 291121
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
721 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE VERY MILD DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES AFFECTS THE NORTHEAST
MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT PASSES THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AS CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY PERSIST. NWP 200-300 HPA MOISTURE FIELDS
SUPPORT THE CIRRUS REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
DESPITE THE BKN-OVC CIRRUS, STILL A PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY AS THE CIRRUS THINS OUT AT TIMES.

UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S ON THE HIGH TEMPS - ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL - BUT SHY OF THE RECORDS BY A FEW DEGREES (PERHAPS A TIE OF
80F AT KISP).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. SMALL SPREAD
IN THE DETAILS OF THIS FEATURE AS SEEN IN THE 21Z SREF AND THE
THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS...THOUGHT THE ECMWF SEEMS FASTER THAN
THE REST.

NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW THAT SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTS LOW
POPS TOWARDS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD
BE MORE OF AN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE RATHER THAN MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN.

TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING WITH THE TREND OF GENERALLY DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. THE PCPN RETURNS WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI-SAT.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST TRACKS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST...WELL OFFSHORE MIDWEEK. QUESTION IN PREVIOUS
RUNS HAD BEEN FOCUSED ON HOW CLOSELY IT TRACKS TO THE COAST AND IN
TURN INTERACTS WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. 00Z MODEL RUNS GENERALLY KEEPING IT WELL
OFFSHORE...THOUGH LINGERING JUST CLOSE ENOUGH WHILE DEEPENING TO
ENABLE POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THE PCPN CHC
REMAINS WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW TREKKING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...APPROACHING THE AREA WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
THIS...COMBINING WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SHOWERS WED. TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN SO WILL HOLD AT CHC
POPS...BUT CAN EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH SUBSEQUENT
RUNS...AND THUS INCREASING POPS LATE TUES NIGHT HEADING THROUGH THE
DAY WED. ALL THE MODELS...MINUS THE 00Z NAM...SUGGEST GENERALLY
LIGHT PCPN AMTS OVER THE AREA. THE NAM HAS THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE...IN FACT EVEN FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALOFT...AND THUS
PRODUCES A MUCH HIGHER AMT OVER THE AREA. BEING SUCH AN OUTLIER...AM
NOT CONSIDERING AT THIS TIME.

SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THURSDAY. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
THURS AFTN FROM WEST TO EAST...IF NOT SOONER. DRY WEATHER IN PLACE
THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THE MOMENT...HAVE PCPN MOVING IN BY FRI EVENING OVER WESTERN
AREAS...SPREADING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND ON INTO SAT. AN WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT ON SAT SHOULD CONTINUE THE CHC
FOR PCPN SAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SAT...WITH THINGS FINALLY
CLEARING BY SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING...SO INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER END CHC. THE MAIN QUESTION
IS JUST IF THE PCPN STARTS TOO EARLY...IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ON
LONGER TO SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN ANY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK HOVERING RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL. A STRONG SURGE OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND WILL
DROP TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. ANY PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 12-13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS WITH INCREASING CIRRUS AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SW FLOW 5-7 KT WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES...GENERALLY
10 KT OR LESS.

WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. LIGHT EAST WINDS
DEVELOP PRIOR TO 12Z TUESDAY...AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THEN AS WELL.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE LIKELY BETWEEN 17-19Z. WINDS SHIFT
TO 180-200 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 10 KT OR LESS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18-20Z. WINDS
SHIFT TO 180-200 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 10 KT OR LESS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CONFIDENCE LOW ON SEA BREEZE BETWEEN 19-21Z.
WINDS COULD SHIFT TO 150-170 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 10 KT
OR LESS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEA BREEZE AFTER 19Z. WIND
SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE LIKELY BETWEEN 16-18Z. WINDS SHIFT
TO 180-200 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 10 KT OR LESS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN RAIN. BEST CHANCES EAST OF
KNYC TERMINALS. E-NE WINDS 10-15 KT.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...MVFR CONDS IN -SHRA POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

INCREASING WINDS TUES NIGHT-WED...WITH 25 KTS GUSTS EXPECTED ON
THE OCEAN WATERS BY WED MORNING. POSSIBLE SCA GUSTS OVER THE OTHER
WATERS...DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW OFFSHORE SETS UP. SEAS
WILL BUILD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...WITH 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE WED
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFING THURS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING WINDS
ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH CURRENTLY
EXPECTING GUSTS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KTS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON
THE NON OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAIRLY LIGHT BASIN
AVG QPF FOR MID WEEK. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF
TOTALS OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT...HOWEVER THE 00Z NAM PLACES A
BULLS EYE OF HEAVIER QPF OVER THE AREA. WITH THE NAM BEING AN
OUTLIER ON THE OTHER SOLUTIONS...AM NOT FORECASTING SUCH TOTALS AT
THE TIME. SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW LINGERING
NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES
TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/TONGUE








000
FXUS61 KOKX 290832
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
432 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE VERY MILD DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES AFFECTS THE NORTHEAST
MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT PASSES THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AS CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY PERSIST. NWP 200-300 HPA MOISTURE FIELDS
SUPPORT THE CIRRUS REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
DESPITE THE BKN-OVC CIRRUS, STILL A PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY AS THE CIRRUS THINS OUT AT TIMES.

EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEW PT TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S INLAND
AND LOWER 60S AT THE COAST...COULD HAVE SOME GROUND/VALLEY FOG.
SUBSIDENCE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE DOES NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG - MORE OF A DEW/GROUND FOG SITUATION.

UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S ON THE HIGH TEMPS - ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, BUT SHY OF THE RECORDS BY A FEW DEGREES (PERHAPS A TIE OF
80 F AT KISP).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. SMALL SPREAD
IN THE DETAILS OF THIS FEATURE AS SEEN IN THE 21Z SREF AND THE
THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS...THOUGHT THE ECMWF SEEMS FASTER THAN
THE REST.

NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW THAT SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTS LOW
POPS TOWARDS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD
BE MORE OF AN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE RATHER THAN MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN.

TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING WITH THE TREND OF GENERALLY DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. THE PCPN RETURNS WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI-SAT.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST TRACKS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST...WELL OFFSHORE MIDWEEK. QUESTION IN PREVIOUS
RUNS HAD BEEN FOCUSED ON HOW CLOSELY IT TRACKS TO THE COAST AND IN
TURN INTERACTS WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. 00Z MODEL RUNS GENERALLY KEEPING IT WELL
OFFSHORE...THOUGH LINGERING JUST CLOSE ENOUGH WHILE DEEPENING TO
ENABLE POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THE PCPN CHC
REMAINS WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW TREKKING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...APPROACHING THE AREA WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
THIS...COMBINING WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SHOWERS WED. TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN SO WILL HOLD AT CHC
POPS...BUT CAN EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH SUBSEQUENT
RUNS...AND THUS INCREASING POPS LATE TUES NIGHT HEADING THROUGH THE
DAY WED. ALL THE MODELS...MINUS THE 00Z NAM...SUGGEST GENERALLY
LIGHT PCPN AMTS OVER THE AREA. THE NAM HAS THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE...IN FACT EVEN FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALOFT...AND THUS
PRODUCES A MUCH HIGHER AMT OVER THE AREA. BEING SUCH AN OUTLIER...AM
NOT CONSIDERING AT THIS TIME.

SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THURSDAY. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
THURS AFTN FROM WEST TO EAST...IF NOT SOONER. DRY WEATHER IN PLACE
THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THE MOMENT...HAVE PCPN MOVING IN BY FRI EVENING OVER WESTERN
AREAS...SPREADING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND ON INTO SAT. AN WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT ON SAT SHOULD CONTINUE THE CHC
FOR PCPN SAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SAT...WITH THINGS FINALLY
CLEARING BY SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING...SO INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER END CHC. THE MAIN QUESTION
IS JUST IF THE PCPN STARTS TOO EARLY...IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ON
LONGER TO SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN ANY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK HOVERING RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL. A STRONG SURGE OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND WILL
DROP TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. VFR CONDS WITH
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG
MAY DEVELOP AWAY FROM KNYC TERMINALS FROM AROUND 10-12Z THIS
MORNING...POSSIBLY REDUCING VSBY AS LOW AS IFR.

SW FLOW 5-7 KT WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES...GENERALLY
10 KT OR LESS.

WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 12Z TUESDAY.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE LIKELY BETWEEN 17-19Z. WINDS SHIFT
TO 180-200 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 10 KT OR LESS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18-20Z. WINDS
SHIFT TO 180-200 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 10 KT OR LESS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CONFIDENCE LOW ON SEA BREEZE BETWEEN 19-21Z.
WINDS COULD SHIFT TO 150-170 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 10 KT
OR LESS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEA BREEZE AFTER 19Z. WIND
SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE LIKELY BETWEEN 16-18Z. WINDS SHIFT
TO 180-200 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 10 KT OR LESS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN
RAIN. BEST CHANCES EAST OF KNYC TERMINALS. E-NE WINDS 10-15 KT.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...MVFR CONDS IN -SHRA POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

INCREASING WINDS TUES NIGHT-WED...WITH 25 KTS GUSTS EXPECTED ON
THE OCEAN WATERS BY WED MORNING. POSSIBLE SCA GUSTS OVER THE OTHER
WATERS...DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW OFFSHORE SETS UP. SEAS
WILL BUILD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...WITH 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE WED
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFING THURS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING WINDS
ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH CURRENTLY
EXPECTING GUSTS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KTS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON
THE NON OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAIRLY LIGHT BASIN
AVG QPF FOR MID WEEK. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF
TOTALS OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT...HOWEVER THE 00Z NAM PLACES A
BULLS EYE OF HEAVIER QPF OVER THE AREA. WITH THE NAM BEING AN
OUTLIER ON THE OTHER SOLUTIONS...AM NOT FORECASTING SUCH TOTALS AT
THE TIME. SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW LINGERING
NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES
TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/TONGUE










000
FXUS61 KOKX 290832
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
432 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE VERY MILD DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES AFFECTS THE NORTHEAST
MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT PASSES THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AS CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY PERSIST. NWP 200-300 HPA MOISTURE FIELDS
SUPPORT THE CIRRUS REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
DESPITE THE BKN-OVC CIRRUS, STILL A PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY AS THE CIRRUS THINS OUT AT TIMES.

EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEW PT TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S INLAND
AND LOWER 60S AT THE COAST...COULD HAVE SOME GROUND/VALLEY FOG.
SUBSIDENCE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE DOES NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG - MORE OF A DEW/GROUND FOG SITUATION.

UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S ON THE HIGH TEMPS - ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, BUT SHY OF THE RECORDS BY A FEW DEGREES (PERHAPS A TIE OF
80 F AT KISP).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. SMALL SPREAD
IN THE DETAILS OF THIS FEATURE AS SEEN IN THE 21Z SREF AND THE
THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS...THOUGHT THE ECMWF SEEMS FASTER THAN
THE REST.

NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW THAT SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTS LOW
POPS TOWARDS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD
BE MORE OF AN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE RATHER THAN MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN.

TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING WITH THE TREND OF GENERALLY DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. THE PCPN RETURNS WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI-SAT.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST TRACKS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST...WELL OFFSHORE MIDWEEK. QUESTION IN PREVIOUS
RUNS HAD BEEN FOCUSED ON HOW CLOSELY IT TRACKS TO THE COAST AND IN
TURN INTERACTS WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. 00Z MODEL RUNS GENERALLY KEEPING IT WELL
OFFSHORE...THOUGH LINGERING JUST CLOSE ENOUGH WHILE DEEPENING TO
ENABLE POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THE PCPN CHC
REMAINS WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW TREKKING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...APPROACHING THE AREA WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
THIS...COMBINING WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SHOWERS WED. TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN SO WILL HOLD AT CHC
POPS...BUT CAN EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH SUBSEQUENT
RUNS...AND THUS INCREASING POPS LATE TUES NIGHT HEADING THROUGH THE
DAY WED. ALL THE MODELS...MINUS THE 00Z NAM...SUGGEST GENERALLY
LIGHT PCPN AMTS OVER THE AREA. THE NAM HAS THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE...IN FACT EVEN FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALOFT...AND THUS
PRODUCES A MUCH HIGHER AMT OVER THE AREA. BEING SUCH AN OUTLIER...AM
NOT CONSIDERING AT THIS TIME.

SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THURSDAY. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
THURS AFTN FROM WEST TO EAST...IF NOT SOONER. DRY WEATHER IN PLACE
THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THE MOMENT...HAVE PCPN MOVING IN BY FRI EVENING OVER WESTERN
AREAS...SPREADING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND ON INTO SAT. AN WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT ON SAT SHOULD CONTINUE THE CHC
FOR PCPN SAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SAT...WITH THINGS FINALLY
CLEARING BY SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING...SO INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER END CHC. THE MAIN QUESTION
IS JUST IF THE PCPN STARTS TOO EARLY...IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ON
LONGER TO SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN ANY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK HOVERING RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL. A STRONG SURGE OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND WILL
DROP TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. VFR CONDS WITH
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG
MAY DEVELOP AWAY FROM KNYC TERMINALS FROM AROUND 10-12Z THIS
MORNING...POSSIBLY REDUCING VSBY AS LOW AS IFR.

SW FLOW 5-7 KT WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES...GENERALLY
10 KT OR LESS.

WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 12Z TUESDAY.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE LIKELY BETWEEN 17-19Z. WINDS SHIFT
TO 180-200 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 10 KT OR LESS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18-20Z. WINDS
SHIFT TO 180-200 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 10 KT OR LESS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CONFIDENCE LOW ON SEA BREEZE BETWEEN 19-21Z.
WINDS COULD SHIFT TO 150-170 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 10 KT
OR LESS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEA BREEZE AFTER 19Z. WIND
SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE LIKELY BETWEEN 16-18Z. WINDS SHIFT
TO 180-200 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 10 KT OR LESS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN
RAIN. BEST CHANCES EAST OF KNYC TERMINALS. E-NE WINDS 10-15 KT.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...MVFR CONDS IN -SHRA POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

INCREASING WINDS TUES NIGHT-WED...WITH 25 KTS GUSTS EXPECTED ON
THE OCEAN WATERS BY WED MORNING. POSSIBLE SCA GUSTS OVER THE OTHER
WATERS...DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW OFFSHORE SETS UP. SEAS
WILL BUILD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...WITH 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE WED
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFING THURS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING WINDS
ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH CURRENTLY
EXPECTING GUSTS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KTS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON
THE NON OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAIRLY LIGHT BASIN
AVG QPF FOR MID WEEK. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF
TOTALS OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT...HOWEVER THE 00Z NAM PLACES A
BULLS EYE OF HEAVIER QPF OVER THE AREA. WITH THE NAM BEING AN
OUTLIER ON THE OTHER SOLUTIONS...AM NOT FORECASTING SUCH TOTALS AT
THE TIME. SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW LINGERING
NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES
TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/TONGUE











000
FXUS61 KOKX 290745
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
345 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE VERY MILD DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES AFFECTS THE NORTHEAST
MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT PASSES THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AS CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY PERSIST. NWP 200-300 HPA MOISTURE FIELDS
SUPPORT THE CIRRUS REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
DESPITE THE BKN-OVC CIRRUS, STILL A PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY AS THE CIRRUS THINS OUT AT TIMES.

EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEW PT TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S INLAND
AND LOWER 60S AT THE COAST...COULD HAVE SOME GROUND/VALLEY FOG.
SUBSIDENCE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE DOES NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG - MORE OF A DEW/GROUND FOG SITUATION.

UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S ON THE HIGH TEMPS - ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, BUT SHY OF THE RECORDS BY A FEW DEGREES (PERHAPS A TIE OF
80 F AT KISP).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. SMALL SPREAD
IN THE DETAILS OF THIS FEATURE AS SEEN IN THE 21Z SREF AND THE
THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS...THOUGHT THE ECMWF SEEMS FASTER THAN
THE REST.

NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW THAT SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTS LOW
POPS TOWARDS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD
BE MORE OF AN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE RATHER THAN MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN.

TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING WITH THE TREND OF GENERALLY DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. THE PCPN RETURNS WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI-SAT.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST TRACKS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST...WELL OFFSHORE MIDWEEK. QUESTION IN PREVIOUS
RUNS HAD BEEN FOCUSED ON HOW CLOSELY IT TRACKS TO THE COAST AND IN
TURN INTERACTS WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. 00Z MODEL RUNS GENERALLY KEEPING IT WELL
OFFSHORE...THOUGH LINGERING JUST CLOSE ENOUGH WHILE DEEPENING TO
ENABLE POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THE PCPN CHC
REMAINS WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW TREKKING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...APPROACHING THE AREA WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
THIS...COMBINING WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SHOWERS WED. TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN SO WILL HOLD AT CHC
POPS...BUT CAN EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH SUBSEQUENT
RUNS...AND THUS INCREASING POPS LATE TUES NIGHT HEADING THROUGH THE
DAY WED. ALL THE MODELS...MINUS THE 00Z NAM...SUGGEST GENERALLY
LIGHT PCPN AMTS OVER THE AREA. THE NAM HAS THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE...IN FACT EVEN FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALOFT...AND THUS
PRODUCES A MUCH HIGHER AMT OVER THE AREA. BEING SUCH AN OUTLIER...AM
NOT CONSIDERING AT THIS TIME.

SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THURSDAY. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
THURS AFTN FROM WEST TO EAST...IF NOT SOONER. DRY WEATHER IN PLACE
THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THE MOMENT...HAVE PCPN MOVING IN BY FRI EVENING OVER WESTERN
AREAS...SPREADING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND ON INTO SAT. AN WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT ON SAT SHOULD CONTINUE THE CHC
FOR PCPN SAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SAT...WITH THINGS FINALLY
CLEARING BY SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING...SO INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER END CHC. THE MAIN QUESTION
IS JUST IF THE PCPN STARTS TOO EARLY...IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ON
LONGER TO SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN ANY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK HOVERING RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL. A STRONG SURGE OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND WILL
DROP TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AT A FEW OUTLYING AIRPORTS.

BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

LIGHT SEA BREEZES WILL REDEVELOP BY 17Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRI...
.TONIGHT-WED...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN RAIN...MAINLY EAST
OF THE NYC TERMINALS. WINDS EAST 10-15 KT.
.WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.FRI...CHANCE OF MVFR REDEVELOPING LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

INCREASING WINDS TUES NIGHT-WED...WITH 25 KTS GUSTS EXPECTED ON
THE OCEAN WATERS BY WED MORNING. POSSIBLE SCA GUSTS OVER THE OTHER
WATERS...DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW OFFSHORE SETS UP. SEAS
WILL BUILD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...WITH 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE WED
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFING THURS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING WINDS
ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH CURRENTLY
EXPECTING GUSTS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KTS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON
THE NON OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAIRLY LIGHT BASIN
AVG QPF FOR MID WEEK. THE 00Z ECWMF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF
TOTALS OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT...HOWEVER THE 00Z NAM PLACES A
BULLS EYE OF HEAVIER QPF OVER THE AREA. WITH THE NAM BEING AN
OUTLIER ON THE OTHER SOLUTIONS...AM NOT FORECASTING SUCH TOTALS AT
THE TIME. SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW LINGERING
NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES
TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/TONGUE








000
FXUS61 KOKX 290745
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
345 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE VERY MILD DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES AFFECTS THE NORTHEAST
MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT PASSES THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AS CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY PERSIST. NWP 200-300 HPA MOISTURE FIELDS
SUPPORT THE CIRRUS REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
DESPITE THE BKN-OVC CIRRUS, STILL A PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY AS THE CIRRUS THINS OUT AT TIMES.

EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEW PT TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S INLAND
AND LOWER 60S AT THE COAST...COULD HAVE SOME GROUND/VALLEY FOG.
SUBSIDENCE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE DOES NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG - MORE OF A DEW/GROUND FOG SITUATION.

UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S ON THE HIGH TEMPS - ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, BUT SHY OF THE RECORDS BY A FEW DEGREES (PERHAPS A TIE OF
80 F AT KISP).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. SMALL SPREAD
IN THE DETAILS OF THIS FEATURE AS SEEN IN THE 21Z SREF AND THE
THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS...THOUGHT THE ECMWF SEEMS FASTER THAN
THE REST.

NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW THAT SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTS LOW
POPS TOWARDS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD
BE MORE OF AN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE RATHER THAN MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN.

TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING WITH THE TREND OF GENERALLY DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. THE PCPN RETURNS WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI-SAT.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST TRACKS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST...WELL OFFSHORE MIDWEEK. QUESTION IN PREVIOUS
RUNS HAD BEEN FOCUSED ON HOW CLOSELY IT TRACKS TO THE COAST AND IN
TURN INTERACTS WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. 00Z MODEL RUNS GENERALLY KEEPING IT WELL
OFFSHORE...THOUGH LINGERING JUST CLOSE ENOUGH WHILE DEEPENING TO
ENABLE POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THE PCPN CHC
REMAINS WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW TREKKING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...APPROACHING THE AREA WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
THIS...COMBINING WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SHOWERS WED. TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN SO WILL HOLD AT CHC
POPS...BUT CAN EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH SUBSEQUENT
RUNS...AND THUS INCREASING POPS LATE TUES NIGHT HEADING THROUGH THE
DAY WED. ALL THE MODELS...MINUS THE 00Z NAM...SUGGEST GENERALLY
LIGHT PCPN AMTS OVER THE AREA. THE NAM HAS THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE...IN FACT EVEN FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALOFT...AND THUS
PRODUCES A MUCH HIGHER AMT OVER THE AREA. BEING SUCH AN OUTLIER...AM
NOT CONSIDERING AT THIS TIME.

SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THURSDAY. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
THURS AFTN FROM WEST TO EAST...IF NOT SOONER. DRY WEATHER IN PLACE
THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THE MOMENT...HAVE PCPN MOVING IN BY FRI EVENING OVER WESTERN
AREAS...SPREADING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND ON INTO SAT. AN WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT ON SAT SHOULD CONTINUE THE CHC
FOR PCPN SAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SAT...WITH THINGS FINALLY
CLEARING BY SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING...SO INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER END CHC. THE MAIN QUESTION
IS JUST IF THE PCPN STARTS TOO EARLY...IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ON
LONGER TO SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN ANY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK HOVERING RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL. A STRONG SURGE OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND WILL
DROP TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AT A FEW OUTLYING AIRPORTS.

BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

LIGHT SEA BREEZES WILL REDEVELOP BY 17Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRI...
.TONIGHT-WED...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN RAIN...MAINLY EAST
OF THE NYC TERMINALS. WINDS EAST 10-15 KT.
.WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.FRI...CHANCE OF MVFR REDEVELOPING LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

INCREASING WINDS TUES NIGHT-WED...WITH 25 KTS GUSTS EXPECTED ON
THE OCEAN WATERS BY WED MORNING. POSSIBLE SCA GUSTS OVER THE OTHER
WATERS...DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW OFFSHORE SETS UP. SEAS
WILL BUILD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...WITH 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE WED
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFING THURS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING WINDS
ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH CURRENTLY
EXPECTING GUSTS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KTS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON
THE NON OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAIRLY LIGHT BASIN
AVG QPF FOR MID WEEK. THE 00Z ECWMF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF
TOTALS OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT...HOWEVER THE 00Z NAM PLACES A
BULLS EYE OF HEAVIER QPF OVER THE AREA. WITH THE NAM BEING AN
OUTLIER ON THE OTHER SOLUTIONS...AM NOT FORECASTING SUCH TOTALS AT
THE TIME. SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW LINGERING
NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES
TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/TONGUE







000
FXUS61 KOKX 290522
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
122 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL BE THE RULE DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A FEW UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BASED ON LATEST NWP AND SATELLITE TRENDS - HAVE INCREASED HIGH CLOUD
COVER SIGNIFICANTLY.

WITH DEW PT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 0S INLAND AND LOWER 60S AT THE
COAST...COULD HAVE SOME GROUND/VALLEY FOG. SUBSIDENCE JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE DOES NOT FAVOR FOG - MORE DEW THAN FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY PER LATEST SATELLITE AND NWP. HAVE GONE WITH BKN
ALL DAY...THOUGHT DO EXPECT THE CIRRUS BECOMING THIN AT TIMES. CLOUD
COVER AND LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPS NOT QUITE AS
WARM AS THOSE ON SUNDAY BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SHOULD SLIP INTO ERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SHARPENS...SO HAVE FCST LIKELY
POP FOR ERN LONG ISLAND...CHANCE POP FOR THE REST OF LONG ISLAND
AND SRN CT...AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. GFS/NAM MOS
BLEND FOR LOW TEMPS...WITH 55-60 INLAND AND 60-65 ELSEWHERE...
LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...LEADING TO AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE 00Z/28
ECMWF STARTED TO SHOW A CONSISTENT TREND AND WAS SIMILAR TO OTHER
MODEL SOLNS...BUT THE 12Z RUN HAS SHIFTED THE LOW CLOSER TO THE
COAST LEADING TO MORE RAINFALL ACROSS ERN LI AND SE CT. THE OTHER
THING WORTH NOTING IS THAT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE NORTHERN
AND SRN BRANCHES OF THE JET SEPARATE AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY WHEN
THEY WERE PHASING THEM.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE AND WED AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH AND A CUT OFF LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE CUTOFF TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT...AND WOULD EXPECT WDLY SCT TO SCT SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE...SO BLANKETED
LOW CHC POPS DURING THIS TIME.

RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN THU/THU NIGHT PROVIDING DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRI AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT DUE TO DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THE MAJORITY OF FRI
LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH RIDGING WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE. A WAVE OF LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO FORM ON THE FRONT IN
THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SAT. CHC
POPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND
THERE COULD BE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY N/W OF NYC.
HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN FOR SUN...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE DAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AT A FEW OUTLYING AIRPORTS.

BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

LIGHT SEA BREEZES WILL REDEVELOP BY 17Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRI...
.TONIGHT-WED...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN RAIN...MAINLY EAST
OF THE NYC TERMINALS. WINDS EAST 10-15 KT.
.WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.FRI...CHANCE OF MVFR REDEVELOPING LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS AVERAGE FOR THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD...BUT LOW PRES LOOKS TO AFFECT THE WATERS STARTING LATE
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EAST
TO NE WINDS COULD AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST
WATERS...AND IF THESE WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO
4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY.

WHILE THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER TUE AND WED...THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAIRLY LIGHT BASIN AVG QPF.
THE EXCEPTION IS THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEFED UP ITS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER ERN LI AND SE CT...BUT THIS MODEL HAS BEEN VERY
INCONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS SO ITS CREDIBILITY IS LOW.
SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW LINGERING NEAR THE
AREA...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES TO ONE
PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/24
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN/TONGUE
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/24
HYDROLOGY...24









000
FXUS61 KOKX 290522
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
122 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL BE THE RULE DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A FEW UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BASED ON LATEST NWP AND SATELLITE TRENDS - HAVE INCREASED HIGH CLOUD
COVER SIGNIFICANTLY.

WITH DEW PT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 0S INLAND AND LOWER 60S AT THE
COAST...COULD HAVE SOME GROUND/VALLEY FOG. SUBSIDENCE JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE DOES NOT FAVOR FOG - MORE DEW THAN FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY PER LATEST SATELLITE AND NWP. HAVE GONE WITH BKN
ALL DAY...THOUGHT DO EXPECT THE CIRRUS BECOMING THIN AT TIMES. CLOUD
COVER AND LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPS NOT QUITE AS
WARM AS THOSE ON SUNDAY BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SHOULD SLIP INTO ERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SHARPENS...SO HAVE FCST LIKELY
POP FOR ERN LONG ISLAND...CHANCE POP FOR THE REST OF LONG ISLAND
AND SRN CT...AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. GFS/NAM MOS
BLEND FOR LOW TEMPS...WITH 55-60 INLAND AND 60-65 ELSEWHERE...
LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...LEADING TO AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE 00Z/28
ECMWF STARTED TO SHOW A CONSISTENT TREND AND WAS SIMILAR TO OTHER
MODEL SOLNS...BUT THE 12Z RUN HAS SHIFTED THE LOW CLOSER TO THE
COAST LEADING TO MORE RAINFALL ACROSS ERN LI AND SE CT. THE OTHER
THING WORTH NOTING IS THAT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE NORTHERN
AND SRN BRANCHES OF THE JET SEPARATE AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY WHEN
THEY WERE PHASING THEM.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE AND WED AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH AND A CUT OFF LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE CUTOFF TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT...AND WOULD EXPECT WDLY SCT TO SCT SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE...SO BLANKETED
LOW CHC POPS DURING THIS TIME.

RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN THU/THU NIGHT PROVIDING DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRI AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT DUE TO DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THE MAJORITY OF FRI
LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH RIDGING WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE. A WAVE OF LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO FORM ON THE FRONT IN
THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SAT. CHC
POPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND
THERE COULD BE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY N/W OF NYC.
HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN FOR SUN...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE DAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AT A FEW OUTLYING AIRPORTS.

BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

LIGHT SEA BREEZES WILL REDEVELOP BY 17Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRI...
.TONIGHT-WED...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN RAIN...MAINLY EAST
OF THE NYC TERMINALS. WINDS EAST 10-15 KT.
.WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.FRI...CHANCE OF MVFR REDEVELOPING LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS AVERAGE FOR THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD...BUT LOW PRES LOOKS TO AFFECT THE WATERS STARTING LATE
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EAST
TO NE WINDS COULD AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST
WATERS...AND IF THESE WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO
4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY.

WHILE THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER TUE AND WED...THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAIRLY LIGHT BASIN AVG QPF.
THE EXCEPTION IS THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEFED UP ITS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER ERN LI AND SE CT...BUT THIS MODEL HAS BEEN VERY
INCONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS SO ITS CREDIBILITY IS LOW.
SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW LINGERING NEAR THE
AREA...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES TO ONE
PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/24
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN/TONGUE
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/24
HYDROLOGY...24








000
FXUS61 KOKX 290424
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1224 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL BE THE RULE DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A FEW UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BASED ON LATEST NWP AND SATELLITE TRENDS - HAVE INCREASED HIGH CLOUD
COVER SIGNIFICANTLY.

WITH DEW PT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 0S INLAND AND LOWER 60S AT THE
COAST...COULD HAVE SOME GROUND/VALLEY FOG. SUBSIDENCE JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE DOES NOT FAVOR FOG - MORE DEW THAN FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY PER LATEST SATELLITE AND NWP. HAVE GONE WITH BKN
ALL DAY...THOUGHT DO EXPECT THE CIRRUS BECOMING THIN AT TIMES. CLOUD
COVER AND LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPS NOT QUITE AS
WARM AS THOSE ON SUNDAY BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SHOULD SLIP INTO ERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SHARPENS...SO HAVE FCST LIKELY
POP FOR ERN LONG ISLAND...CHANCE POP FOR THE REST OF LONG ISLAND
AND SRN CT...AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. GFS/NAM MOS
BLEND FOR LOW TEMPS...WITH 55-60 INLAND AND 60-65 ELSEWHERE...
LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...LEADING TO AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE 00Z/28
ECMWF STARTED TO SHOW A CONSISTENT TREND AND WAS SIMILAR TO OTHER
MODEL SOLNS...BUT THE 12Z RUN HAS SHIFTED THE LOW CLOSER TO THE
COAST LEADING TO MORE RAINFALL ACROSS ERN LI AND SE CT. THE OTHER
THING WORTH NOTING IS THAT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE NORTHERN
AND SRN BRANCHES OF THE JET SEPARATE AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY WHEN
THEY WERE PHASING THEM.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE AND WED AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH AND A CUT OFF LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE CUTOFF TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT...AND WOULD EXPECT WDLY SCT TO SCT SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE...SO BLANKETED
LOW CHC POPS DURING THIS TIME.

RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN THU/THU NIGHT PROVIDING DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRI AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT DUE TO DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THE MAJORITY OF FRI
LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH RIDGING WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE. A WAVE OF LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO FORM ON THE FRONT IN
THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SAT. CHC
POPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND
THERE COULD BE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY N/W OF NYC.
HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN FOR SUN...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE DAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AT A FEW OUTLYING AIRPORTS.

BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

LIGHT SEA BREEZES WILL REDEVELOP BY 17Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRI...
.TONIGHT-WED...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN RAIN...MAINLY EAST
OF THE NYC TERMINALS. WINDS EAST 10-15 KT.
.WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.FRI...CHANCE OF MVFR REDEVELOPING LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS AVERAGE FOR THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD...BUT LOW PRES LOOKS TO AFFECT THE WATERS STARTING LATE
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EAST
TO NE WINDS COULD AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST
WATERS...AND IF THESE WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO
4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY.

WHILE THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER TUE AND WED...THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAIRLY LIGHT BASIN AVG QPF.
THE EXCEPTION IS THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEFED UP ITS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER ERN LI AND SE CT...BUT THIS MODEL HAS BEEN VERY
INCONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS SO ITS CREDIBILITY IS LOW.
SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW LINGERING NEAR THE
AREA...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES TO ONE
PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/24
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN/TONGUE
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/24
HYDROLOGY...24








000
FXUS61 KOKX 290424
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1224 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL BE THE RULE DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A FEW UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BASED ON LATEST NWP AND SATELLITE TRENDS - HAVE INCREASED HIGH CLOUD
COVER SIGNIFICANTLY.

WITH DEW PT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 0S INLAND AND LOWER 60S AT THE
COAST...COULD HAVE SOME GROUND/VALLEY FOG. SUBSIDENCE JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE DOES NOT FAVOR FOG - MORE DEW THAN FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY PER LATEST SATELLITE AND NWP. HAVE GONE WITH BKN
ALL DAY...THOUGHT DO EXPECT THE CIRRUS BECOMING THIN AT TIMES. CLOUD
COVER AND LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPS NOT QUITE AS
WARM AS THOSE ON SUNDAY BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SHOULD SLIP INTO ERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SHARPENS...SO HAVE FCST LIKELY
POP FOR ERN LONG ISLAND...CHANCE POP FOR THE REST OF LONG ISLAND
AND SRN CT...AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. GFS/NAM MOS
BLEND FOR LOW TEMPS...WITH 55-60 INLAND AND 60-65 ELSEWHERE...
LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...LEADING TO AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE 00Z/28
ECMWF STARTED TO SHOW A CONSISTENT TREND AND WAS SIMILAR TO OTHER
MODEL SOLNS...BUT THE 12Z RUN HAS SHIFTED THE LOW CLOSER TO THE
COAST LEADING TO MORE RAINFALL ACROSS ERN LI AND SE CT. THE OTHER
THING WORTH NOTING IS THAT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE NORTHERN
AND SRN BRANCHES OF THE JET SEPARATE AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY WHEN
THEY WERE PHASING THEM.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE AND WED AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH AND A CUT OFF LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE CUTOFF TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT...AND WOULD EXPECT WDLY SCT TO SCT SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE...SO BLANKETED
LOW CHC POPS DURING THIS TIME.

RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN THU/THU NIGHT PROVIDING DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRI AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT DUE TO DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THE MAJORITY OF FRI
LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH RIDGING WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE. A WAVE OF LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO FORM ON THE FRONT IN
THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SAT. CHC
POPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND
THERE COULD BE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY N/W OF NYC.
HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN FOR SUN...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE DAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AT A FEW OUTLYING AIRPORTS.

BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

LIGHT SEA BREEZES WILL REDEVELOP BY 17Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRI...
.TONIGHT-WED...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN RAIN...MAINLY EAST
OF THE NYC TERMINALS. WINDS EAST 10-15 KT.
.WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.FRI...CHANCE OF MVFR REDEVELOPING LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS AVERAGE FOR THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD...BUT LOW PRES LOOKS TO AFFECT THE WATERS STARTING LATE
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EAST
TO NE WINDS COULD AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST
WATERS...AND IF THESE WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO
4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY.

WHILE THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER TUE AND WED...THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAIRLY LIGHT BASIN AVG QPF.
THE EXCEPTION IS THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEFED UP ITS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER ERN LI AND SE CT...BUT THIS MODEL HAS BEEN VERY
INCONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS SO ITS CREDIBILITY IS LOW.
SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW LINGERING NEAR THE
AREA...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES TO ONE
PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/24
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN/TONGUE
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/24
HYDROLOGY...24







000
FXUS61 KOKX 290240
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1040 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL BE THE RULE DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A FEW UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY T/TD BASED
ON CURRENT CONDS AND TRENDS.

BKN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD LIMIT
RADIATION FOG POTENTIAL EXCEPT OVER SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. NAM
CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN...AND HAS BEEN RIGHT IN THIS RESPECT OVER MOS GUIDANCE WITH
SOME RECENT EVENTS...SO WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON MON AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES. NO PRECIP EXPECTED...BUT CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING
HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPS NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THOSE OF
TODAY BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.

A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SHOULD SLIP INTO ERN SECTIONS LATE MON
NIGHT WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SHARPENS...SO HAVE FCST
LIKELY POP FOR ERN LONG ISLAND...CHANCE POP FOR THE REST OF LONG
ISLAND AND SRN CT...AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. GFS/NAM
MOS BLEND FOR LOW TEMPS...WITH 55-60 INLAND AND 60-65 ELSEWHERE...
LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...LEADING TO AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE 00Z/28
ECMWF STARTED TO SHOW A CONSISTENT TREND AND WAS SIMILAR TO OTHER
MODEL SOLNS...BUT THE 12Z RUN HAS SHIFTED THE LOW CLOSER TO THE
COAST LEADING TO MORE RAINFALL ACROSS ERN LI AND SE CT. THE OTHER
THING WORTH NOTING IS THAT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE NORTHERN
AND SRN BRANCHES OF THE JET SEPARATE AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY WHEN
THEY WERE PHASING THEM.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE AND WED AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH AND A CUT OFF LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE CUTOFF TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT...AND WOULD EXPECT WDLY SCT TO SCT SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE...SO BLANKETED
LOW CHC POPS DURING THIS TIME.

RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN THU/THU NIGHT PROVIDING DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRI AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT DUE TO DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THE MAJORITY OF FRI
LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH RIDGING WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE. A WAVE OF LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO FORM ON THE FRONT IN
THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SAT. CHC
POPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND
THERE COULD BE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY N/W OF NYC.
HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN FOR SUN...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE DAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD
BE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AT A FEW OUTLYING AIRPORTS.

BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT. SIMILAR LIGHT SEA BREEZES WILL
REDEVELOP BY 17Z MONDAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-WED...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN RAIN...MAINLY
EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS. WINDS EAST 10-15 KT.
.WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.FRI...CHANCE OF MVFR REDEVELOPING LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS AVERAGE FOR THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD...BUT LOW PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING LATE
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY
EAST TO NE WINDS COULD AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON
MOST WATERS...AND IF THESE WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD
TO 4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

WHILE THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER TUE AND WED...THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAIRLY LIGHT BASIN AVG QPF.
THE EXCEPTION IS THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEFED UP ITS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER ERN LI AND SE CT...BUT THIS MODEL HAS BEEN VERY
INCONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS SO ITS CREDIBILITY IS LOW.
SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW LINGERING NEAR THE
AREA...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES TO ONE
PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/24
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/24
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/24
HYDROLOGY...24








000
FXUS61 KOKX 282339
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
739 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL BE THE RULE DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A FEW UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY T/TD BASED
ON CURRENT CONDS AND TRENDS.

BKN HIGH CLOUDS TO THE WEST WILL STREAM IN OVERNIGHT...AND LIMIT
RADIATION FOG POTENTIAL EXCEPT OVER SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. NAM
CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN...AND HAS BEEN RIGHT IN THIS RESPECT OVER MOS GUIDANCE WITH
SOME RECENT EVENTS...SO WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON MON AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES. NO PRECIP EXPECTED...BUT CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING
HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPS NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THOSE OF
TODAY BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.

A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SHOULD SLIP INTO ERN SECTIONS LATE MON
NIGHT WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SHARPENS...SO HAVE FCST
LIKELY POP FOR ERN LONG ISLAND...CHANCE POP FOR THE REST OF LONG
ISLAND AND SRN CT...AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. GFS/NAM
MOS BLEND FOR LOW TEMPS...WITH 55-60 INLAND AND 60-65 ELSEWHERE...
LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...LEADING TO AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE 00Z/28
ECMWF STARTED TO SHOW A CONSISTENT TREND AND WAS SIMILAR TO OTHER
MODEL SOLNS...BUT THE 12Z RUN HAS SHIFTED THE LOW CLOSER TO THE
COAST LEADING TO MORE RAINFALL ACROSS ERN LI AND SE CT. THE OTHER
THING WORTH NOTING IS THAT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE NORTHERN
AND SRN BRANCHES OF THE JET SEPARATE AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY WHEN
THEY WERE PHASING THEM.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE AND WED AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH AND A CUT OFF LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE CUTOFF TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT...AND WOULD EXPECT WDLY SCT TO SCT SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE...SO BLANKETED
LOW CHC POPS DURING THIS TIME.

RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN THU/THU NIGHT PROVIDING DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRI AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT DUE TO DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THE MAJORITY OF FRI
LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH RIDGING WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE. A WAVE OF LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO FORM ON THE FRONT IN
THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SAT. CHC
POPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND
THERE COULD BE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY N/W OF NYC.
HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN FOR SUN...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE DAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD
BE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AT A FEW OUTLYING AIRPORTS.

BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT. SIMILAR LIGHT SEA BREEZES WILL
REDEVELOP BY 17Z MONDAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-WED...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN RAIN...MAINLY
EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS. WINDS EAST 10-15 KT.
.WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.FRI...CHANCE OF MVFR REDEVELOPING LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS AVERAGE FOR THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD...BUT LOW PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING LATE
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY
EAST TO NE WINDS COULD AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON
MOST WATERS...AND IF THESE WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD
TO 4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

WHILE THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER TUE AND WED...THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAIRLY LIGHT BASIN AVG QPF.
THE EXCEPTION IS THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEFED UP ITS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER ERN LI AND SE CT...BUT THIS MODEL HAS BEEN VERY
INCONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS SO ITS CREDIBILITY IS LOW.
SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW LINGERING NEAR THE
AREA...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES TO ONE
PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 282010
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
410 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL BE THE RULE DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A FEW UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
PATCH OF BKN CIRRUS IS MOVING GRADUALLY NE ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND...AND WILL LEAD TO 1-2 HR
PD OF SUNSHINE FILTERED BY HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY BASED ON
TREND FROM PREV FCST...EXCEPT ACROSS INTERIOR SRN CT WHERE TEMPS
ARE RUNNING AHEAD OF FCST. THAT YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR
MOST INLAND SPOTS...LOWER 80S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND UPPER 70S ALONG
MOST SOUTH FACING SHORES. SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS.

BKN HIGH CLOUDS OVER PA WILL STREAM IN OVERNIGHT...AND LIMIT
RADIATION FOG POTENTIAL EXCEPT OVER SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. NAM
CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN...AND HAS BEEN RIGHT IN THIS RESPECT OVER MOS GUIDANCE WITH
SOME RECENT EVENTS...SO WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON MON AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES. NO PRECIP EXPECTED...BUT CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING
HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPS NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THOSE OF
TODAY BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.

A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SHOULD SLIP INTO ERN SECTIONS LATE MON
NIGHT WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SHARPENS...SO HAVE FCST
LIKELY POP FOR ERN LONG ISLAND...CHANCE POP FOR THE REST OF LONG
ISLAND AND SRN CT...AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. GFS/NAM
MOS BLEND FOR LOW TEMPS...WITH 55-60 INLAND AND 60-65 ELSEWHERE...
LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...LEADING TO AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE 00Z/28
ECMWF STARTED TO SHOW A CONSISTENT TREND AND WAS SIMILAR TO OTHER
MODEL SOLNS...BUT THE 12Z RUN HAS SHIFTED THE LOW CLOSER TO THE
COAST LEADING TO MORE RAINFALL ACROSS ERN LI AND SE CT. THE OTHER
THING WORTH NOTING IS THAT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE NORTHERN
AND SRN BRANCHES OF THE JET SEPARATE AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY WHEN
THEY WERE PHASING THEM.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE AND WED AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH AND A CUT OFF LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE CUTOFF TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT...AND WOULD EXPECT WDLY SCT TO SCT SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE...SO BLANKETED
LOW CHC POPS DURING THIS TIME.

RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN THU/THU NIGHT PROVIDING DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRI AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT DUE TO DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THE MAJORITY OF FRI
LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH RIDGING WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE. A WAVE OF LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO FORM ON THE FRONT IN
THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SAT. CHC
POPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND
THERE COULD BE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY N/W OF NYC.
HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN FOR SUN...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE DAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

A LARGE AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARD
THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

SCT-BKN MAINLY CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.

LIGHT SEA BREEZES RANGING FROM 160 TO 210 DEGS NEAR 10 KT WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL SUNSET...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. SIMILAR LIGHT
SEA BREEZES WILL REDEVELOP BY 17Z MONDAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-WED...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS VSBY AND RAIN...MAINLY EAST
OF THE NYC TERMINALS. WINDS EAST 10-15 KT.
.WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.FRI...CHANCE OF MVFR REDEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS AVERAGE FOR THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD...BUT LOW PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING LATE
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY
EAST TO NE WINDS COULD AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON
MOST WATERS...AND IF THESE WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD
TO 4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

WHILE THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER TUE AND WED...THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAIRLY LIGHT BASIN AVG QPF.
THE EXCEPTION IS THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEFED UP ITS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER ERN LI AND SE CT...BUT THIS MODEL HAS BEEN VERY
INCONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS SO ITS CREDIBILITY IS LOW.
SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW LINGERING NEAR THE
AREA...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES TO ONE
PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD AND FCST HIGHS FOR TODAY SEPTEMBER 28TH...

LOCATION.......RECORD/YEAR SET...FCST...
NEWARK.............85/1954*.......87....
BRIDGEPORT.........81/1959........81....
CENTRAL PARK.......88/1881........85....
LAGUARDIA..........86/1943........85....
JFK AIRPORT........82/1948........77....
ISLIP..............78/2007*.......80....

* AND IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/24
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...GOODMAN/24
HYDROLOGY...24
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 282010
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
410 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL BE THE RULE DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A FEW UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
PATCH OF BKN CIRRUS IS MOVING GRADUALLY NE ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND...AND WILL LEAD TO 1-2 HR
PD OF SUNSHINE FILTERED BY HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY BASED ON
TREND FROM PREV FCST...EXCEPT ACROSS INTERIOR SRN CT WHERE TEMPS
ARE RUNNING AHEAD OF FCST. THAT YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR
MOST INLAND SPOTS...LOWER 80S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND UPPER 70S ALONG
MOST SOUTH FACING SHORES. SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS.

BKN HIGH CLOUDS OVER PA WILL STREAM IN OVERNIGHT...AND LIMIT
RADIATION FOG POTENTIAL EXCEPT OVER SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. NAM
CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN...AND HAS BEEN RIGHT IN THIS RESPECT OVER MOS GUIDANCE WITH
SOME RECENT EVENTS...SO WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON MON AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES. NO PRECIP EXPECTED...BUT CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING
HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPS NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THOSE OF
TODAY BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.

A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SHOULD SLIP INTO ERN SECTIONS LATE MON
NIGHT WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SHARPENS...SO HAVE FCST
LIKELY POP FOR ERN LONG ISLAND...CHANCE POP FOR THE REST OF LONG
ISLAND AND SRN CT...AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. GFS/NAM
MOS BLEND FOR LOW TEMPS...WITH 55-60 INLAND AND 60-65 ELSEWHERE...
LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...LEADING TO AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE 00Z/28
ECMWF STARTED TO SHOW A CONSISTENT TREND AND WAS SIMILAR TO OTHER
MODEL SOLNS...BUT THE 12Z RUN HAS SHIFTED THE LOW CLOSER TO THE
COAST LEADING TO MORE RAINFALL ACROSS ERN LI AND SE CT. THE OTHER
THING WORTH NOTING IS THAT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE NORTHERN
AND SRN BRANCHES OF THE JET SEPARATE AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY WHEN
THEY WERE PHASING THEM.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE AND WED AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH AND A CUT OFF LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE CUTOFF TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT...AND WOULD EXPECT WDLY SCT TO SCT SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE...SO BLANKETED
LOW CHC POPS DURING THIS TIME.

RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN THU/THU NIGHT PROVIDING DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRI AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT DUE TO DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THE MAJORITY OF FRI
LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH RIDGING WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE. A WAVE OF LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO FORM ON THE FRONT IN
THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SAT. CHC
POPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND
THERE COULD BE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY N/W OF NYC.
HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN FOR SUN...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE DAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

A LARGE AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARD
THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

SCT-BKN MAINLY CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.

LIGHT SEA BREEZES RANGING FROM 160 TO 210 DEGS NEAR 10 KT WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL SUNSET...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. SIMILAR LIGHT
SEA BREEZES WILL REDEVELOP BY 17Z MONDAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-WED...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS VSBY AND RAIN...MAINLY EAST
OF THE NYC TERMINALS. WINDS EAST 10-15 KT.
.WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.FRI...CHANCE OF MVFR REDEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS AVERAGE FOR THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD...BUT LOW PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING LATE
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY
EAST TO NE WINDS COULD AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON
MOST WATERS...AND IF THESE WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD
TO 4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

WHILE THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER TUE AND WED...THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAIRLY LIGHT BASIN AVG QPF.
THE EXCEPTION IS THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEFED UP ITS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER ERN LI AND SE CT...BUT THIS MODEL HAS BEEN VERY
INCONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS SO ITS CREDIBILITY IS LOW.
SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW LINGERING NEAR THE
AREA...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES TO ONE
PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD AND FCST HIGHS FOR TODAY SEPTEMBER 28TH...

LOCATION.......RECORD/YEAR SET...FCST...
NEWARK.............85/1954*.......87....
BRIDGEPORT.........81/1959........81....
CENTRAL PARK.......88/1881........85....
LAGUARDIA..........86/1943........85....
JFK AIRPORT........82/1948........77....
ISLIP..............78/2007*.......80....

* AND IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/24
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...GOODMAN/24
HYDROLOGY...24
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 281840
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
240 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY
RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO CROSS THE TRI-STATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCH OF BKN CIRRUS IS MOVING GRADUALLY NE ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND...AND WILL LEAD TO 1-2 HR PD OF
SUNSHINE FILTERED BY HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY BASED ON TREND
FROM PREV FCST...EXCEPT ACROSS INTERIOR SRN CT WHERE TEMPS ARE
RUNNING AHEAD OF FCST. THAT YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST
INLAND SPOTS...LOWER 80S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND UPPER 70S ALONG MOST
SOUTH FACING SHORES. SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON POSSIBLE
RECORD HIGHS.

BKN HIGH CLOUDS OVER WRN PA WILL STREAM IN OVERNIGHT...AND LIMIT
RADIATION FOG POTENTIAL EXCEPT OVER SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND.
NAM CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN...AND HAS BEEN RIGHT IN THIS RESPECT OVER MOS GUIDANCE WITH
SOME RECENT EVENTS...SO WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON MON AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES. NO PRECIP EXPECTED...BUT CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING
HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPS NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THOSE OF
TODAY BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.

A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SHOULD SLIP INTO ERN SECTIONS LATE MON
NIGHT WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SHARPENS...SO HAVE FCST
LIKELY POP FOR ERN LONG ISLAND...CHANCE POP FOR THE REST OF LONG
ISLAND AND SRN CT...AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. GFS/NAM
MOS BLEND FOR LOW TEMPS...WITH 55-60 INLAND AND 60-65 ELSEWHERE...
LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK 700-500
HPA SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING CLOSED 500 HPA LOW MOVING INTO NE PA/N NJ/SE NY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH LOW CLOUDS
AROUND...AND SOME MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME. SO CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH MEN/MEX/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS
USED WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED MID TO LEVEL
LOW TRACKS TO SE OF CAPE COD BY 12Z THURSDAY. THEY THEN DIVERGE
ABOUT WHERE IT MOVES FROM THERE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING IT TO THE
ESE...THE GFS THE SE...WHILE THE CMC DEVOLVES IT INTO A BROADER
CIRCULATION THAT EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATES TO OUR SE BY 00Z
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT POPS TO AT MOST SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE/OPEN THAN THE GFS WITH A 700-500 HPA
TROUGH - WITH A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS FROM THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE APPALACHIANS IN THE GFS AND
INTO THE NE U.S. IN THE ECMWF BY 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
SIMILAR IN OVER ALL IDEA AND DIFFER ONLY IN THE DETAILS...HAVE
OPTED FOR A BLEND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN
HAVING CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM GUIDANCE WITH 00Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

A LARGE AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARD
THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

SCT-BKN MAINLY CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.

LIGHT SEA BREEZES RANGING FROM 160 TO 210 DEGS NEAR 10 KT WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL SUNSET...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. SIMILAR LIGHT
SEA BREEZES WILL REDEVELOP BY 17Z MONDAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-WED...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS VSBY AND RAIN...MAINLY EAST
OF THE NYC TERMINALS. WINDS EAST 10-15 KT.
.WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.FRI...CHANCE OF MVFR REDEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY EAST TO NE WINDS COULD
AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF THESE
WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

AT THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME IS OF BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE. SO GIVEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW
LINGERING NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE
FLOW...IN THIS TIME FRAME...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD AND FCST HIGHS FOR TODAY SEPTEMBER 28TH...

LOCATION.......RECORD/YEAR SET...FCST...
NEWARK.............85/1954*.......87....
BRIDGEPORT.........81/1959........81....
CENTRAL PARK.......88/1881........85....
LAGUARDIA..........86/1943........85....
JFK AIRPORT........82/1948........77....
ISLIP..............78/2007*.......80....

* AND IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 281840
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
240 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY
RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO CROSS THE TRI-STATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCH OF BKN CIRRUS IS MOVING GRADUALLY NE ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND...AND WILL LEAD TO 1-2 HR PD OF
SUNSHINE FILTERED BY HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY BASED ON TREND
FROM PREV FCST...EXCEPT ACROSS INTERIOR SRN CT WHERE TEMPS ARE
RUNNING AHEAD OF FCST. THAT YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST
INLAND SPOTS...LOWER 80S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND UPPER 70S ALONG MOST
SOUTH FACING SHORES. SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON POSSIBLE
RECORD HIGHS.

BKN HIGH CLOUDS OVER WRN PA WILL STREAM IN OVERNIGHT...AND LIMIT
RADIATION FOG POTENTIAL EXCEPT OVER SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND.
NAM CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN...AND HAS BEEN RIGHT IN THIS RESPECT OVER MOS GUIDANCE WITH
SOME RECENT EVENTS...SO WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON MON AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES. NO PRECIP EXPECTED...BUT CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING
HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPS NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THOSE OF
TODAY BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.

A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SHOULD SLIP INTO ERN SECTIONS LATE MON
NIGHT WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SHARPENS...SO HAVE FCST
LIKELY POP FOR ERN LONG ISLAND...CHANCE POP FOR THE REST OF LONG
ISLAND AND SRN CT...AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. GFS/NAM
MOS BLEND FOR LOW TEMPS...WITH 55-60 INLAND AND 60-65 ELSEWHERE...
LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK 700-500
HPA SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING CLOSED 500 HPA LOW MOVING INTO NE PA/N NJ/SE NY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH LOW CLOUDS
AROUND...AND SOME MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME. SO CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH MEN/MEX/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS
USED WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED MID TO LEVEL
LOW TRACKS TO SE OF CAPE COD BY 12Z THURSDAY. THEY THEN DIVERGE
ABOUT WHERE IT MOVES FROM THERE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING IT TO THE
ESE...THE GFS THE SE...WHILE THE CMC DEVOLVES IT INTO A BROADER
CIRCULATION THAT EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATES TO OUR SE BY 00Z
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT POPS TO AT MOST SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE/OPEN THAN THE GFS WITH A 700-500 HPA
TROUGH - WITH A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS FROM THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE APPALACHIANS IN THE GFS AND
INTO THE NE U.S. IN THE ECMWF BY 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
SIMILAR IN OVER ALL IDEA AND DIFFER ONLY IN THE DETAILS...HAVE
OPTED FOR A BLEND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN
HAVING CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM GUIDANCE WITH 00Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

A LARGE AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARD
THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

SCT-BKN MAINLY CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.

LIGHT SEA BREEZES RANGING FROM 160 TO 210 DEGS NEAR 10 KT WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL SUNSET...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. SIMILAR LIGHT
SEA BREEZES WILL REDEVELOP BY 17Z MONDAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-WED...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS VSBY AND RAIN...MAINLY EAST
OF THE NYC TERMINALS. WINDS EAST 10-15 KT.
.WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.FRI...CHANCE OF MVFR REDEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY EAST TO NE WINDS COULD
AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF THESE
WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

AT THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME IS OF BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE. SO GIVEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW
LINGERING NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE
FLOW...IN THIS TIME FRAME...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD AND FCST HIGHS FOR TODAY SEPTEMBER 28TH...

LOCATION.......RECORD/YEAR SET...FCST...
NEWARK.............85/1954*.......87....
BRIDGEPORT.........81/1959........81....
CENTRAL PARK.......88/1881........85....
LAGUARDIA..........86/1943........85....
JFK AIRPORT........82/1948........77....
ISLIP..............78/2007*.......80....

* AND IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 281744
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
144 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY
RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO CROSS THE TRI-STATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCH OF BKN CIRRUS IS MOVING GRADUALLY NE ACROSS...AND WILL LEAD
TO 1-2 HR PD OF SUNSHINE FILTERED BY HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. OKX/ALY 12Z SOUNDINGS AND FCST H8-10
THICKNESSES SUPPORT IDEA OF HIGH TEMPS LITTLE WARMER THAN THOSE
OF YESTERDAY...EXCEPT RIGHT AT THE COAST WHERE SOUTHERLY SEA
BREEZES WILL COME IN MUCH SOONER THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY.
SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE. FOR LOWS
TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WILL SEE CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS
WEAK/DISJOINTED 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
FOR NOW LOW LEVELS APPEAR TO BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND MIXED WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TOO 900 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE S OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER/LESS
BULLISH WITH THE FRONT THAN ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. SINCE THE ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER...USED BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF WITH 00Z
NAM/SREF/GFS/SREF TO DENOTE BACKDOOR FRONT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLD
-SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT - SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. FOR LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK 700-500
HPA SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING CLOSED 500 HPA LOW MOVING INTO NE PA/N NJ/SE NY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH LOW CLOUDS
AROUND...AND SOME MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME. SO CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH MEN/MEX/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS
USED WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED MID TO LEVEL
LOW TRACKS TO SE OF CAPE COD BY 12Z THURSDAY. THEY THEN DIVERGE
ABOUT WHERE IT MOVES FROM THERE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING IT TO THE
ESE...THE GFS THE SE...WHILE THE CMC DEVOLVES IT INTO A BROADER
CIRCULATION THAT EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATES TO OUR SE BY 00Z
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT POPS TO AT MOST SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE/OPEN THAN THE GFS WITH A 700-500 HPA
TROUGH - WITH A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS FROM THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE APPALACHIANS IN THE GFS AND
INTO THE NE U.S. IN THE ECMWF BY 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
SIMILAR IN OVER ALL IDEA AND DIFFER ONLY IN THE DETAILS...HAVE
OPTED FOR A BLEND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN
HAVING CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM GUIDANCE WITH 00Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

A LARGE AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARD
THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

SCT-BKN MAINLY CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.

LIGHT SEA BREEZES RANGING FROM 160 TO 210 DEGS NEAR 10 KT WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL SUNSET...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. SIMILAR LIGHT
SEA BREEZES WILL REDEVELOP BY 17Z MONDAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-WED...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS VSBY AND RAIN...MAINLY EAST
OF THE NYC TERMINALS. WINDS EAST 10-15 KT.
.WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.FRI...CHANCE OF MVFR REDEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY EAST TO NE WINDS COULD
AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF THESE
WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

AT THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME IS OF BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE. SO GIVEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW
LINGERING NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE
FLOW...IN THIS TIME FRAME...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD AND FCST HIGHS FOR TODAY SEPTEMBER 28TH...

LOCATION.......RECORD/YEAR SET...FCST...
NEWARK.............85/1954*.......88....
BRIDGEPORT.........81/1959........79....
CENTRAL PARK.......88/1881........87....
LAGUARDIA..........86/1943........85....
JFK AIRPORT........82/1948........83....
ISLIP..............78/2007*.......82....

* AND IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 281744
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
144 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY
RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO CROSS THE TRI-STATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCH OF BKN CIRRUS IS MOVING GRADUALLY NE ACROSS...AND WILL LEAD
TO 1-2 HR PD OF SUNSHINE FILTERED BY HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. OKX/ALY 12Z SOUNDINGS AND FCST H8-10
THICKNESSES SUPPORT IDEA OF HIGH TEMPS LITTLE WARMER THAN THOSE
OF YESTERDAY...EXCEPT RIGHT AT THE COAST WHERE SOUTHERLY SEA
BREEZES WILL COME IN MUCH SOONER THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY.
SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE. FOR LOWS
TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WILL SEE CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS
WEAK/DISJOINTED 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
FOR NOW LOW LEVELS APPEAR TO BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND MIXED WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TOO 900 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE S OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER/LESS
BULLISH WITH THE FRONT THAN ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. SINCE THE ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER...USED BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF WITH 00Z
NAM/SREF/GFS/SREF TO DENOTE BACKDOOR FRONT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLD
-SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT - SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. FOR LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK 700-500
HPA SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING CLOSED 500 HPA LOW MOVING INTO NE PA/N NJ/SE NY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH LOW CLOUDS
AROUND...AND SOME MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME. SO CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH MEN/MEX/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS
USED WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED MID TO LEVEL
LOW TRACKS TO SE OF CAPE COD BY 12Z THURSDAY. THEY THEN DIVERGE
ABOUT WHERE IT MOVES FROM THERE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING IT TO THE
ESE...THE GFS THE SE...WHILE THE CMC DEVOLVES IT INTO A BROADER
CIRCULATION THAT EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATES TO OUR SE BY 00Z
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT POPS TO AT MOST SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE/OPEN THAN THE GFS WITH A 700-500 HPA
TROUGH - WITH A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS FROM THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE APPALACHIANS IN THE GFS AND
INTO THE NE U.S. IN THE ECMWF BY 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
SIMILAR IN OVER ALL IDEA AND DIFFER ONLY IN THE DETAILS...HAVE
OPTED FOR A BLEND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN
HAVING CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM GUIDANCE WITH 00Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

A LARGE AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARD
THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

SCT-BKN MAINLY CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.

LIGHT SEA BREEZES RANGING FROM 160 TO 210 DEGS NEAR 10 KT WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL SUNSET...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. SIMILAR LIGHT
SEA BREEZES WILL REDEVELOP BY 17Z MONDAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-WED...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS VSBY AND RAIN...MAINLY EAST
OF THE NYC TERMINALS. WINDS EAST 10-15 KT.
.WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.FRI...CHANCE OF MVFR REDEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY EAST TO NE WINDS COULD
AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF THESE
WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

AT THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME IS OF BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE. SO GIVEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW
LINGERING NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE
FLOW...IN THIS TIME FRAME...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD AND FCST HIGHS FOR TODAY SEPTEMBER 28TH...

LOCATION.......RECORD/YEAR SET...FCST...
NEWARK.............85/1954*.......88....
BRIDGEPORT.........81/1959........79....
CENTRAL PARK.......88/1881........87....
LAGUARDIA..........86/1943........85....
JFK AIRPORT........82/1948........83....
ISLIP..............78/2007*.......82....

* AND IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 281515
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1115 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY
RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO CROSS THE TRI-STATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCH OF BKN CIRRUS IS MOVING GRADUALLY NE ACROSS...AND WILL LEAD
TO 1-2 HR PD OF SUNSHINE FILTERED BY HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. OKX/ALY 12Z SOUNDINGS AND FCST H8-10
THICKNESSES SUPPORT IDEA OF HIGH TEMPS LITTLE WARMER THAN THOSE
OF YESTERDAY...EXCEPT RIGHT AT THE COAST WHERE SOUTHERLY SEA
BREEZES WILL COME IN MUCH SOONER THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY.
SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE. FOR LOWS
TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WILL SEE CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS
WEAK/DISJOINTED 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
FOR NOW LOW LEVELS APPEAR WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND MIXED WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TOO 900 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE S OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER/LESS
BULLISH WITH THE FRONT THAN ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. SINCE THE ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER...USED BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF WITH 00Z
NAM/SREF/GFS/SREF TO DENOTE BACKDOOR FRONT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLD
-SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT - SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. FOR LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK 700-500
HPA SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING CLOSED 500 HPA LOW MOVING INTO NE PA/N NJ/SE NY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH LOW CLOUDS
AROUND...AND SOME MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME. SO CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH MEN/MEX/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS
USED WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED MID TO LEVEL
LOW TRACKS TO SE OF CAPE COD BY 12Z THURSDAY. THEY THEN DIVERGE
ABOUT WHERE IT MOVES FROM THERE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING IT TO THE
ESE...THE GFS THE SE...WHILE THE CMC DEVOLVES IT INTO A BROADER
CIRCULATION THAT EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATES TO OUR SE BY 00Z
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT POPS TO AT MOST SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE/OPEN THAN THE GFS WITH A 700-500 HPA
TROUGH - WITH A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS FROM THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE APPALACHIANS IN THE GFS AND
INTO THE NE U.S. IN THE ECMWF BY 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
SIMILAR IN OVER ALL IDEA AND DIFFER ONLY IN THE DETAILS...HAVE
OPTED FOR A BLEND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN
HAVING CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM GUIDANCE WITH 00Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST.

SCT-BKN MAINLY CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE ON TAP THROUGH TONIGHT.

LIGHT SEA BREEZES ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN
160 AND 220 DEG AROUND 5 KNOTS. THEY ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
NEAR 10 KT BY 17Z THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFT SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.MON...VFR.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN NIGHTTIME STRATUS
AND FOG. RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS TIME FRAME. INCREASING E-NE WINDS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND AN APPROACHING LOW TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY EAST TO NE WINDS COULD
AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF THESE
WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

AT THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME IS OF BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE. SO GIVEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW
LINGERING NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE
FLOW...IN THIS TIME FRAME...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD AND FCST HIGHS FOR TODAY SEPTEMBER 28TH...

LOCATION.......RECORD/YEAR SET...FCST...
NEWARK.............85/1954*.......88....
BRIDGEPORT.........81/1959........79....
CENTRAL PARK.......88/1881........87....
LAGUARDIA..........86/1943........85....
JFK AIRPORT........82/1948........83....
ISLIP..............78/2007*.......82....

* AND IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KOKX 281515
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1115 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY
RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO CROSS THE TRI-STATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCH OF BKN CIRRUS IS MOVING GRADUALLY NE ACROSS...AND WILL LEAD
TO 1-2 HR PD OF SUNSHINE FILTERED BY HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. OKX/ALY 12Z SOUNDINGS AND FCST H8-10
THICKNESSES SUPPORT IDEA OF HIGH TEMPS LITTLE WARMER THAN THOSE
OF YESTERDAY...EXCEPT RIGHT AT THE COAST WHERE SOUTHERLY SEA
BREEZES WILL COME IN MUCH SOONER THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY.
SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE. FOR LOWS
TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WILL SEE CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS
WEAK/DISJOINTED 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
FOR NOW LOW LEVELS APPEAR WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND MIXED WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TOO 900 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE S OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER/LESS
BULLISH WITH THE FRONT THAN ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. SINCE THE ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER...USED BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF WITH 00Z
NAM/SREF/GFS/SREF TO DENOTE BACKDOOR FRONT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLD
-SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT - SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. FOR LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK 700-500
HPA SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING CLOSED 500 HPA LOW MOVING INTO NE PA/N NJ/SE NY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH LOW CLOUDS
AROUND...AND SOME MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME. SO CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH MEN/MEX/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS
USED WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED MID TO LEVEL
LOW TRACKS TO SE OF CAPE COD BY 12Z THURSDAY. THEY THEN DIVERGE
ABOUT WHERE IT MOVES FROM THERE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING IT TO THE
ESE...THE GFS THE SE...WHILE THE CMC DEVOLVES IT INTO A BROADER
CIRCULATION THAT EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATES TO OUR SE BY 00Z
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT POPS TO AT MOST SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE/OPEN THAN THE GFS WITH A 700-500 HPA
TROUGH - WITH A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS FROM THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE APPALACHIANS IN THE GFS AND
INTO THE NE U.S. IN THE ECMWF BY 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
SIMILAR IN OVER ALL IDEA AND DIFFER ONLY IN THE DETAILS...HAVE
OPTED FOR A BLEND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN
HAVING CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM GUIDANCE WITH 00Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST.

SCT-BKN MAINLY CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE ON TAP THROUGH TONIGHT.

LIGHT SEA BREEZES ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN
160 AND 220 DEG AROUND 5 KNOTS. THEY ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
NEAR 10 KT BY 17Z THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFT SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.MON...VFR.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN NIGHTTIME STRATUS
AND FOG. RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS TIME FRAME. INCREASING E-NE WINDS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND AN APPROACHING LOW TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY EAST TO NE WINDS COULD
AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF THESE
WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

AT THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME IS OF BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE. SO GIVEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW
LINGERING NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE
FLOW...IN THIS TIME FRAME...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD AND FCST HIGHS FOR TODAY SEPTEMBER 28TH...

LOCATION.......RECORD/YEAR SET...FCST...
NEWARK.............85/1954*.......88....
BRIDGEPORT.........81/1959........79....
CENTRAL PARK.......88/1881........87....
LAGUARDIA..........86/1943........85....
JFK AIRPORT........82/1948........83....
ISLIP..............78/2007*.......82....

* AND IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KOKX 281310
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
910 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY
RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO CROSS THE TRI-STATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOTE THAT KIJD AND KHFD ARE DOWN TO 1/4 MILE IN FOG...WHILE KMMK
IS UP TO 4 MILES. THE FEW OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE CWA REPORTING
FOG ARE AT 6 MILES....EXCEPT 2 1/2 AT KHWV. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SPREADING OF FOG IN 11-3.9 MICRON
CHANNEL. SO IT APPEARS THE LOW VISIBILITIES ARE BEING CONFINED TO
NORTHERN CT. BASED ON THIS...AND THERE BEING ONLY ONE REPORT OF
VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN THE CWA...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
FOG OUT OF EARLY MORNING FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL ADDRESS WITH SPS
IF VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS BECOME MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
THEY CURRENTLY ARE.

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CENTERS ITSELF TO THE ESE OF THE AREA TODAY.
STILL WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALLOW FOR
MINIMAL...IF ANY CLOUD COVER TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - CONSISTENT WITH
A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. NEAR RECORD
TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A RESULT...SEE
THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE. FOR LOWS
TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WILL SEE CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS
WEAK/DISJOINTED 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
FOR NOW LOW LEVELS APPEAR WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND MIXED WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TOO 900 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE S OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER/LESS
BULLISH WITH THE FRONT THAN ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. SINCE THE ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER...USED BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF WITH 00Z
NAM/SREF/GFS/SREF TO DENOTE BACKDOOR FRONT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLD
-SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT - SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. FOR LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK 700-500
HPA SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING CLOSED 500 HPA LOW MOVING INTO NE PA/N NJ/SE NY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH LOW CLOUDS
AROUND...AND SOME MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME. SO CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH MEN/MEX/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS
USED WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED MID TO LEVEL
LOW TRACKS TO SE OF CAPE COD BY 12Z THURSDAY. THEY THEN DIVERGE
ABOUT WHERE IT MOVES FROM THERE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING IT TO THE
ESE...THE GFS THE SE...WHILE THE CMC DEVOLVES IT INTO A BROADER
CIRCULATION THAT EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATES TO OUR SE BY 00Z
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT POPS TO AT MOST SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE/OPEN THAN THE GFS WITH A 700-500 HPA
TROUGH - WITH A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS FROM THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE APPALACHIANS IN THE GFS AND
INTO THE NE U.S. IN THE ECMWF BY 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
SIMILAR IN OVER ALL IDEA AND DIFFER ONLY IN THE DETAILS...HAVE
OPTED FOR A BLEND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN
HAVING CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM GUIDANCE WITH 00Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST.

SCT-BKN MAINLY CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE ON TAP THROUGH TONIGHT.

SW WINDS INCREASE TO 5-7 KT BY LATE MORNING...AND THEN USUAL SEA
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS.

WINDS BECOME LGT/VRB AFT 00Z MONDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.MON...VFR.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN NIGHTTIME STRATUS
AND FOG. RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS TIME FRAME. INCREASING E-NE WINDS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND AN APPROACHING LOW TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY EAST TO NE WINDS COULD
AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF THESE
WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

AT THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME IS OF BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE. SO GIVEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW
LINGERING NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE
FLOW...IN THIS TIME FRAME...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY SEPTEMBER 28TH...

LOCATION.......RECORD/YEAR SET....FORECAST HIGH
NEWARK.............85/1954*..........85........
BRIDGEPORT.........81/1959...........79........
CENTRAL PARK.......88/1881...........84........
LAGUARDIA..........86/1943...........85........
JFK AIRPORT........82/1948...........81........
ISLIP..............78/2007*..........80........

* AND IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...GC/MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 281310
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
910 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY
RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO CROSS THE TRI-STATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOTE THAT KIJD AND KHFD ARE DOWN TO 1/4 MILE IN FOG...WHILE KMMK
IS UP TO 4 MILES. THE FEW OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE CWA REPORTING
FOG ARE AT 6 MILES....EXCEPT 2 1/2 AT KHWV. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SPREADING OF FOG IN 11-3.9 MICRON
CHANNEL. SO IT APPEARS THE LOW VISIBILITIES ARE BEING CONFINED TO
NORTHERN CT. BASED ON THIS...AND THERE BEING ONLY ONE REPORT OF
VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN THE CWA...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
FOG OUT OF EARLY MORNING FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL ADDRESS WITH SPS
IF VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS BECOME MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
THEY CURRENTLY ARE.

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CENTERS ITSELF TO THE ESE OF THE AREA TODAY.
STILL WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALLOW FOR
MINIMAL...IF ANY CLOUD COVER TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - CONSISTENT WITH
A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. NEAR RECORD
TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A RESULT...SEE
THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE. FOR LOWS
TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WILL SEE CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS
WEAK/DISJOINTED 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
FOR NOW LOW LEVELS APPEAR WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND MIXED WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TOO 900 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE S OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER/LESS
BULLISH WITH THE FRONT THAN ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. SINCE THE ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER...USED BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF WITH 00Z
NAM/SREF/GFS/SREF TO DENOTE BACKDOOR FRONT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLD
-SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT - SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. FOR LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK 700-500
HPA SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING CLOSED 500 HPA LOW MOVING INTO NE PA/N NJ/SE NY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH LOW CLOUDS
AROUND...AND SOME MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME. SO CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH MEN/MEX/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS
USED WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED MID TO LEVEL
LOW TRACKS TO SE OF CAPE COD BY 12Z THURSDAY. THEY THEN DIVERGE
ABOUT WHERE IT MOVES FROM THERE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING IT TO THE
ESE...THE GFS THE SE...WHILE THE CMC DEVOLVES IT INTO A BROADER
CIRCULATION THAT EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATES TO OUR SE BY 00Z
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT POPS TO AT MOST SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE/OPEN THAN THE GFS WITH A 700-500 HPA
TROUGH - WITH A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS FROM THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE APPALACHIANS IN THE GFS AND
INTO THE NE U.S. IN THE ECMWF BY 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
SIMILAR IN OVER ALL IDEA AND DIFFER ONLY IN THE DETAILS...HAVE
OPTED FOR A BLEND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN
HAVING CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM GUIDANCE WITH 00Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST.

SCT-BKN MAINLY CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE ON TAP THROUGH TONIGHT.

SW WINDS INCREASE TO 5-7 KT BY LATE MORNING...AND THEN USUAL SEA
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS.

WINDS BECOME LGT/VRB AFT 00Z MONDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.MON...VFR.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN NIGHTTIME STRATUS
AND FOG. RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS TIME FRAME. INCREASING E-NE WINDS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND AN APPROACHING LOW TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY EAST TO NE WINDS COULD
AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF THESE
WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

AT THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME IS OF BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE. SO GIVEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW
LINGERING NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE
FLOW...IN THIS TIME FRAME...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY SEPTEMBER 28TH...

LOCATION.......RECORD/YEAR SET....FORECAST HIGH
NEWARK.............85/1954*..........85........
BRIDGEPORT.........81/1959...........79........
CENTRAL PARK.......88/1881...........84........
LAGUARDIA..........86/1943...........85........
JFK AIRPORT........82/1948...........81........
ISLIP..............78/2007*..........80........

* AND IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...GC/MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 281122
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
722 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY
RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO CROSS THE TRI-STATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOTE THAT KIJD AND KHFD ARE DOWN TO 1/4 MILE IN FOG...WHILE KMMK
IS UP TO 4 MILES. THE FEW OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE CWA REPORTING
FOG ARE AT 6 MILES....EXCEPT 2 1/2 AT KHWV. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SPREADING OF FOG IN 11-3.9 MICRON
CHANNEL. SO IT APPEARS THE LOW VISIBILITIES ARE BEING CONFINED TO
NORTHERN CT. BASED ON THIS...AND THERE BEING ONLY ONE REPORT OF
VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN THE CWA...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
FOG OUT OF EARLY MORNING FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL ADDRESS WITH SPS
IF VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS BECOME MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
THEY CURRENTLY ARE.

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CENTERS ITSELF TO THE ESE OF THE AREA TODAY.
STILL WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALLOW FOR
MINIMAL...IF ANY CLOUD COVER TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - CONSISTENT WITH
A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. NEAR RECORD
TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A RESULT...SEE
THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE. FOR LOWS
TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WILL SEE CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS
WEAK/DISJOINTED 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
FOR NOW LOW LEVELS APPEAR WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND MIXED WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TOO 900 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE S OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER/LESS
BULLISH WITH THE FRONT THAN ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. SINCE THE ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER...USED BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF WITH 00Z
NAM/SREF/GFS/SREF TO DENOTE BACKDOOR FRONT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLD
-SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT - SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. FOR LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK 700-500
HPA SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING CLOSED 500 HPA LOW MOVING INTO NE PA/N NJ/SE NY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH LOW CLOUDS
AROUND...AND SOME MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME. SO CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH MEN/MEX/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS
USED WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED MID TO LEVEL
LOW TRACKS TO SE OF CAPE COD BY 12Z THURSDAY. THEY THEN DIVERGE
ABOUT WHERE IT MOVES FROM THERE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING IT TO THE
ESE...THE GFS THE SE...WHILE THE CMC DEVOLVES IT INTO A BROADER
CIRCULATION THAT EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATES TO OUR SE BY 00Z
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT POPS TO AT MOST SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE/OPEN THAN THE GFS WITH A 700-500 HPA
TROUGH - WITH A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS FROM THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE APPALACHIANS IN THE GFS AND
INTO THE NE U.S. IN THE ECMWF BY 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
SIMILAR IN OVER ALL IDEA AND DIFFER ONLY IN THE DETAILS...HAVE
OPTED FOR A BLEND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN
HAVING CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM GUIDANCE WITH 00Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATCHY FOG ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND
DISSIPATE. VFR THROUGHOUT LIKELY BY 13Z.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES ON TAP THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 5-7 KT BY
LATE MORNING...AND THEN USUAL SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS.

WINDS BECOME LGT/VRB AFT 00Z MONDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.MON...VFR.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN NIGHTTIME STRATUS
AND FOG. RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS TIME FRAME. INCREASING E-NE WINDS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND AN APPROACHING LOW TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY EAST TO NE WINDS COULD
AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF THESE
WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

AT THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME IS OF BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE. SO GIVEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW
LINGERING NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE
FLOW...IN THIS TIME FRAME...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY SEPTEMBER 28TH...

LOCATION.......RECORD/YEAR SET....FORECAST HIGH
NEWARK.............85/1954*..........85........
BRIDGEPORT.........81/1959...........79........
CENTRAL PARK.......88/1881...........84........
LAGUARDIA..........86/1943...........85........
JFK AIRPORT........82/1948...........81........
ISLIP..............78/2007*..........80........

* AND IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KOKX 281122
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
722 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY
RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO CROSS THE TRI-STATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOTE THAT KIJD AND KHFD ARE DOWN TO 1/4 MILE IN FOG...WHILE KMMK
IS UP TO 4 MILES. THE FEW OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE CWA REPORTING
FOG ARE AT 6 MILES....EXCEPT 2 1/2 AT KHWV. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SPREADING OF FOG IN 11-3.9 MICRON
CHANNEL. SO IT APPEARS THE LOW VISIBILITIES ARE BEING CONFINED TO
NORTHERN CT. BASED ON THIS...AND THERE BEING ONLY ONE REPORT OF
VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN THE CWA...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
FOG OUT OF EARLY MORNING FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL ADDRESS WITH SPS
IF VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS BECOME MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
THEY CURRENTLY ARE.

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CENTERS ITSELF TO THE ESE OF THE AREA TODAY.
STILL WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALLOW FOR
MINIMAL...IF ANY CLOUD COVER TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - CONSISTENT WITH
A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. NEAR RECORD
TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A RESULT...SEE
THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE. FOR LOWS
TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WILL SEE CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS
WEAK/DISJOINTED 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
FOR NOW LOW LEVELS APPEAR WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND MIXED WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TOO 900 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE S OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER/LESS
BULLISH WITH THE FRONT THAN ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. SINCE THE ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER...USED BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF WITH 00Z
NAM/SREF/GFS/SREF TO DENOTE BACKDOOR FRONT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLD
-SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT - SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. FOR LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK 700-500
HPA SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING CLOSED 500 HPA LOW MOVING INTO NE PA/N NJ/SE NY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH LOW CLOUDS
AROUND...AND SOME MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME. SO CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH MEN/MEX/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS
USED WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED MID TO LEVEL
LOW TRACKS TO SE OF CAPE COD BY 12Z THURSDAY. THEY THEN DIVERGE
ABOUT WHERE IT MOVES FROM THERE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING IT TO THE
ESE...THE GFS THE SE...WHILE THE CMC DEVOLVES IT INTO A BROADER
CIRCULATION THAT EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATES TO OUR SE BY 00Z
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT POPS TO AT MOST SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE/OPEN THAN THE GFS WITH A 700-500 HPA
TROUGH - WITH A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS FROM THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE APPALACHIANS IN THE GFS AND
INTO THE NE U.S. IN THE ECMWF BY 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
SIMILAR IN OVER ALL IDEA AND DIFFER ONLY IN THE DETAILS...HAVE
OPTED FOR A BLEND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN
HAVING CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM GUIDANCE WITH 00Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATCHY FOG ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND
DISSIPATE. VFR THROUGHOUT LIKELY BY 13Z.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES ON TAP THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 5-7 KT BY
LATE MORNING...AND THEN USUAL SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS.

WINDS BECOME LGT/VRB AFT 00Z MONDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.MON...VFR.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN NIGHTTIME STRATUS
AND FOG. RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS TIME FRAME. INCREASING E-NE WINDS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND AN APPROACHING LOW TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY EAST TO NE WINDS COULD
AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF THESE
WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

AT THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME IS OF BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE. SO GIVEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW
LINGERING NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE
FLOW...IN THIS TIME FRAME...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY SEPTEMBER 28TH...

LOCATION.......RECORD/YEAR SET....FORECAST HIGH
NEWARK.............85/1954*..........85........
BRIDGEPORT.........81/1959...........79........
CENTRAL PARK.......88/1881...........84........
LAGUARDIA..........86/1943...........85........
JFK AIRPORT........82/1948...........81........
ISLIP..............78/2007*..........80........

* AND IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...










000
FXUS61 KOKX 281028
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
628 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY
RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO CROSS THE TRI-STATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOTE THAT KIJD AND KHFD ARE DOWN TO 1/4 MILE IN FOG...WHILE KMMK
IS UP TO 4 MILES. THE FEW OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE CWA REPORTING
FOG ARE AT 6 MILES....EXCEPT 2 1/2 AT KHWV. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SPREADING OF FOG IN 11-3.9 MICRON
CHANNEL. SO IT APPEARS THE LOW VISIBILITIES ARE BEING CONFINED TO
NORTHERN CT. BASED ON THIS...AND THERE BEING ONLY ONE REPORT OF
VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN THE CWA...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
FOG OUT OF EARLY MORNING FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL ADDRESS WITH SPS
IF VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS BECOME MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
THEY CURRENTLY ARE.

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CENTERS ITSELF TO THE ESE OF THE AREA TODAY.
STILL WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALLOW FOR
MINIMAL...IF ANY CLOUD COVER TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - CONSISTENT WITH
A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. NEAR RECORD
TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A RESULT...SEE
THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE. FOR LOWS
TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WILL SEE CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS
WEAK/DISJOINTED 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
FOR NOW LOW LEVELS APPEAR WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND MIXED WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TOO 900 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE S OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER/LESS
BULLISH WITH THE FRONT THAN ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. SINCE THE ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER...USED BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF WITH 00Z
NAM/SREF/GFS/SREF TO DENOTE BACKDOOR FRONT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLD
-SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT - SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. FOR LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK 700-500
HPA SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING CLOSED 500 HPA LOW MOVING INTO NE PA/N NJ/SE NY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH LOW CLOUDS
AROUND...AND SOME MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME. SO CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH MEN/MEX/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS
USED WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED MID TO LEVEL
LOW TRACKS TO SE OF CAPE COD BY 12Z THURSDAY. THEY THEN DIVERGE
ABOUT WHERE IT MOVES FROM THERE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING IT TO THE
ESE...THE GFS THE SE...WHILE THE CMC DEVOLVES IT INTO A BROADER
CIRCULATION THAT EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATES TO OUR SE BY 00Z
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT POPS TO AT MOST SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE/OPEN THAN THE GFS WITH A 700-500 HPA
TROUGH - WITH A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS FROM THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE APPALACHIANS IN THE GFS AND
INTO THE NE U.S. IN THE ECMWF BY 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
SIMILAR IN OVER ALL IDEA AND DIFFER ONLY IN THE DETAILS...HAVE
OPTED FOR A BLEND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN
HAVING CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM GUIDANCE WITH 00Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AWAY FROM KNYC TERMINALS...WITH VSBY
REDUCED TO AT LEAST MVFR WITH LOCALIZED IFR. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS TEMPS WARM UP AND THE FOG BURNS OFF.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...WITH
USUAL SEA BREEZES ANTICIPATED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE FOG AND STRATUS LOCALLY.
.MON...VFR.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN NIGHTTIME STRATUS
AND FOG. RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS TIME FRAME. INCREASING E-NE WINDS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND AN APPROACHING LOW TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY EAST TO NE WINDS COULD
AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF THESE
WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

AT THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME IS OF BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE. SO GIVEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW
LINGERING NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE
FLOW...IN THIS TIME FRAME...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY SEPTEMBER 28TH...

LOCATION.......RECORD/YEAR SET....FORECAST HIGH
NEWARK.............85/1954*..........85........
BRIDGEPORT.........81/1959...........79........
CENTRAL PARK.......88/1881...........84........
LAGUARDIA..........86/1943...........85........
JFK AIRPORT........82/1948...........81........
ISLIP..............78/2007*..........80........

* AND IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 281028
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
628 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY
RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO CROSS THE TRI-STATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOTE THAT KIJD AND KHFD ARE DOWN TO 1/4 MILE IN FOG...WHILE KMMK
IS UP TO 4 MILES. THE FEW OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE CWA REPORTING
FOG ARE AT 6 MILES....EXCEPT 2 1/2 AT KHWV. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SPREADING OF FOG IN 11-3.9 MICRON
CHANNEL. SO IT APPEARS THE LOW VISIBILITIES ARE BEING CONFINED TO
NORTHERN CT. BASED ON THIS...AND THERE BEING ONLY ONE REPORT OF
VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN THE CWA...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
FOG OUT OF EARLY MORNING FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL ADDRESS WITH SPS
IF VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS BECOME MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
THEY CURRENTLY ARE.

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CENTERS ITSELF TO THE ESE OF THE AREA TODAY.
STILL WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALLOW FOR
MINIMAL...IF ANY CLOUD COVER TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - CONSISTENT WITH
A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. NEAR RECORD
TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A RESULT...SEE
THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE. FOR LOWS
TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WILL SEE CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS
WEAK/DISJOINTED 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
FOR NOW LOW LEVELS APPEAR WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND MIXED WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TOO 900 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE S OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER/LESS
BULLISH WITH THE FRONT THAN ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. SINCE THE ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER...USED BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF WITH 00Z
NAM/SREF/GFS/SREF TO DENOTE BACKDOOR FRONT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLD
-SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT - SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. FOR LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK 700-500
HPA SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING CLOSED 500 HPA LOW MOVING INTO NE PA/N NJ/SE NY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH LOW CLOUDS
AROUND...AND SOME MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME. SO CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH MEN/MEX/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS
USED WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED MID TO LEVEL
LOW TRACKS TO SE OF CAPE COD BY 12Z THURSDAY. THEY THEN DIVERGE
ABOUT WHERE IT MOVES FROM THERE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING IT TO THE
ESE...THE GFS THE SE...WHILE THE CMC DEVOLVES IT INTO A BROADER
CIRCULATION THAT EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATES TO OUR SE BY 00Z
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT POPS TO AT MOST SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE/OPEN THAN THE GFS WITH A 700-500 HPA
TROUGH - WITH A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS FROM THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE APPALACHIANS IN THE GFS AND
INTO THE NE U.S. IN THE ECMWF BY 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
SIMILAR IN OVER ALL IDEA AND DIFFER ONLY IN THE DETAILS...HAVE
OPTED FOR A BLEND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN
HAVING CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM GUIDANCE WITH 00Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AWAY FROM KNYC TERMINALS...WITH VSBY
REDUCED TO AT LEAST MVFR WITH LOCALIZED IFR. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS TEMPS WARM UP AND THE FOG BURNS OFF.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...WITH
USUAL SEA BREEZES ANTICIPATED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE FOG AND STRATUS LOCALLY.
.MON...VFR.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN NIGHTTIME STRATUS
AND FOG. RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS TIME FRAME. INCREASING E-NE WINDS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND AN APPROACHING LOW TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY EAST TO NE WINDS COULD
AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF THESE
WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

AT THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME IS OF BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE. SO GIVEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW
LINGERING NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE
FLOW...IN THIS TIME FRAME...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY SEPTEMBER 28TH...

LOCATION.......RECORD/YEAR SET....FORECAST HIGH
NEWARK.............85/1954*..........85........
BRIDGEPORT.........81/1959...........79........
CENTRAL PARK.......88/1881...........84........
LAGUARDIA..........86/1943...........85........
JFK AIRPORT........82/1948...........81........
ISLIP..............78/2007*..........80........

* AND IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 280836
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
436 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY
RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO CROSS THE TRI-STATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOTE THAT KMMK IS DOWN TO 1/2 MILE IN FOG...WHILE THE FEW OTHER
LOCATIONS IN THE CWA REPORTING FOG ARE AT 6 MILES. DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SPREADING OF FOG IN 11-3.9 MICRON
CHANNEL...AND WITH ONLY ONE REPORT OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3
MILES...WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF EARLY MORNING FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS...AND ADDRESS WITH SPS IF
VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS BECOME MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THEY
CURRENTLY ARE.

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CENTERS ITSELF TO THE ESE OF THE AREA TODAY.
STILL WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALLOW FOR
MINIMAL...IF ANY CLOUD COVER TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - CONSISTENT WITH
A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. NEAR RECORD
TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A RESULT...SEE
THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE. FOR LOWS
TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WILL SEE CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS
WEAK/DISJOINTED 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
FOR NOW LOW LEVELS APPEAR WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND MIXED WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TOO 900 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE S OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER/LESS
BULLISH WITH THE FRONT THAN ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. SINCE THE ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER...USED BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF WITH 00Z
NAM/SREF/GFS/SREF TO DENOTE BACKDOOR FRONT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLD
-SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT - SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. FOR LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK 700-500
HPA SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING CLOSED 500 HPA LOW MOVING INTO NE PA/N NJ/SE NY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH LOW CLOUDS
AROUND...AND SOME MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME. SO CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH MEN/MEX/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS
USED WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED MID TO LEVEL
LOW TRACKS TO SE OF CAPE COD BY 12Z THURSDAY. THEY THEN DIVERGE
ABOUT WHERE IT MOVES FROM THERE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING IT TO THE
ESE...THE GFS THE SE...WHILE THE CMC DEVOLVES IT INTO A BROADER
CIRCULATION THAT EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATES TO OUR SE BY 00Z
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT POPS TO AT MOST SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE/OPEN THAN THE GFS WITH A 700-500 HPA
TROUGH - WITH A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS FROM THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE APPALACHIANS IN THE GFS AND
INTO THE NE U.S. IN THE ECMWF BY 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
SIMILAR IN OVER ALL IDEA AND DIFFER ONLY IN THE DETAILS...HAVE
OPTED FOR A BLEND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN
HAVING CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM GUIDANCE WITH 00Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AWAY FROM KNYC TERMINALS...WITH VSBY
REDUCED TO AT LEAST MVFR WITH LOCALIZED IFR. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS TEMPS WARM UP AND THE FOG BURNS OFF.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...WITH
USUAL SEA BREEZES ANTICIPATED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE FOG AND STRATUS LOCALLY.
.MON...VFR.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN NIGHTTIME STRATUS
AND FOG. RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS TIME FRAME. INCREASING E-NE WINDS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND AN APPROACHING LOW TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY EAST TO NE WINDS COULD
AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF THESE
WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

AT THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME IS OF BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE. SO GIVEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW
LINGERING NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE
FLOW...IN THIS TIME FRAME...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN THE
WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY SEPTEMBER 28TH...

LOCATION.......RECORD/YEAR SET....FORECAST HIGH
NEWARK.............85/1954*..........85........
BRIDGEPORT.........81/1959...........79........
CENTRAL PARK.......88/1881...........84........
LAGUARDIA..........86/1943...........85........
JFK AIRPORT........82/1948...........81........
ISLIP..............78/2007*..........80........

* AND IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...










000
FXUS61 KOKX 280836
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
436 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY
RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO CROSS THE TRI-STATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOTE THAT KMMK IS DOWN TO 1/2 MILE IN FOG...WHILE THE FEW OTHER
LOCATIONS IN THE CWA REPORTING FOG ARE AT 6 MILES. DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SPREADING OF FOG IN 11-3.9 MICRON
CHANNEL...AND WITH ONLY ONE REPORT OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3
MILES...WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF EARLY MORNING FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS...AND ADDRESS WITH SPS IF
VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS BECOME MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THEY
CURRENTLY ARE.

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CENTERS ITSELF TO THE ESE OF THE AREA TODAY.
STILL WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALLOW FOR
MINIMAL...IF ANY CLOUD COVER TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - CONSISTENT WITH
A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. NEAR RECORD
TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A RESULT...SEE
THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE. FOR LOWS
TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WILL SEE CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS
WEAK/DISJOINTED 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
FOR NOW LOW LEVELS APPEAR WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND MIXED WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TOO 900 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE S OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER/LESS
BULLISH WITH THE FRONT THAN ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. SINCE THE ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER...USED BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF WITH 00Z
NAM/SREF/GFS/SREF TO DENOTE BACKDOOR FRONT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLD
-SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT - SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. FOR LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK 700-500
HPA SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING CLOSED 500 HPA LOW MOVING INTO NE PA/N NJ/SE NY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH LOW CLOUDS
AROUND...AND SOME MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME. SO CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH MEN/MEX/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS
USED WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED MID TO LEVEL
LOW TRACKS TO SE OF CAPE COD BY 12Z THURSDAY. THEY THEN DIVERGE
ABOUT WHERE IT MOVES FROM THERE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING IT TO THE
ESE...THE GFS THE SE...WHILE THE CMC DEVOLVES IT INTO A BROADER
CIRCULATION THAT EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATES TO OUR SE BY 00Z
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT POPS TO AT MOST SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE/OPEN THAN THE GFS WITH A 700-500 HPA
TROUGH - WITH A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS FROM THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE APPALACHIANS IN THE GFS AND
INTO THE NE U.S. IN THE ECMWF BY 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
SIMILAR IN OVER ALL IDEA AND DIFFER ONLY IN THE DETAILS...HAVE
OPTED FOR A BLEND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN
HAVING CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM GUIDANCE WITH 00Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AWAY FROM KNYC TERMINALS...WITH VSBY
REDUCED TO AT LEAST MVFR WITH LOCALIZED IFR. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS TEMPS WARM UP AND THE FOG BURNS OFF.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...WITH
USUAL SEA BREEZES ANTICIPATED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE FOG AND STRATUS LOCALLY.
.MON...VFR.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN NIGHTTIME STRATUS
AND FOG. RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS TIME FRAME. INCREASING E-NE WINDS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND AN APPROACHING LOW TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY EAST TO NE WINDS COULD
AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF THESE
WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

AT THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME IS OF BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE. SO GIVEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW
LINGERING NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE
FLOW...IN THIS TIME FRAME...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN THE
WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY SEPTEMBER 28TH...

LOCATION.......RECORD/YEAR SET....FORECAST HIGH
NEWARK.............85/1954*..........85........
BRIDGEPORT.........81/1959...........79........
CENTRAL PARK.......88/1881...........84........
LAGUARDIA..........86/1943...........85........
JFK AIRPORT........82/1948...........81........
ISLIP..............78/2007*..........80........

* AND IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KOKX 280801 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY
RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO CROSS THE TRI-STATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOTE THAT KMMK IS DOWN TO 1/2 MILE IN FOG...WHILE THE FEW OTHER
LOCATIONS IN THE CWA REPORTING FOG ARE AT 6 MILES. DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SPREADING OF FOG IN 11-3.9 MICRON
CHANNEL...AND WITH ONLY ONE REPORT OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3
MILES...WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF EARLY MORNING FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS...AND ADDRESS WITH SPS IF
VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS BECOME MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THEY
CURRENTLY ARE.

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CENTERS ITSELF TO THE ESE OF THE AREA TODAY.
STILL WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALLOW FOR
MINIMAL...IF ANY CLOUD COVER TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - CONSISTENT WITH
A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. NEAR RECORD
TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A RESULT...SEE
THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE. FOR LOWS
TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WILL SEE CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS
WEAK/DISJOINTED 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
FOR NOW LOW LEVELS APPEAR WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND MIXED WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TOO 900 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE S OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER/LESS
BULLISH WITH THE FRONT THAN ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. SINCE THE ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER...USED BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF WITH 00Z
NAM/SREF/GFS/SREF TO DENOTE BACKDOOR FRONT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLD
-SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT - SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. FOR LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK 700-500
HPA SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING CLOSED 500 HPA LOW MOVING INTO NE PA/N NJ/SE NY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH LOW CLOUDS
AROUND...AND SOME MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME. SO CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH MEN/MEX/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS
USED WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED MID TO LEVEL
LOW TRACKS TO SE OF CAPE COD BY 12Z THURSDAY. THEY THEN DIVERGE
ABOUT WHERE IT MOVES FROM THERE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING IT TO THE
ESE...THE GFS THE SE...WHILE THE CMC DEVOLVES IT INTO A BROADER
CIRCULATION THAT EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATES TO OUR SE BY 00Z
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT POPS TO AT MOST SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE/OPEN THAN THE GFS WITH A 700-500 HPA
TROUGH - WITH A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS FROM THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE APPALACHIANS IN THE GFS AND
INTO THE NE U.S. IN THE ECMWF BY 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
SIMILAR IN OVER ALL IDEA AND DIFFER ONLY IN THE DETAILS...HAVE
OPTED FOR A BLEND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN
HAVING CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM GUIDANCE WITH 00Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT OR CALM WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK.

INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR VSBY TO DEVELOP...AND LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR
AT KSWF AROUND 08Z.

ANY FOG LIFTS AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...WITH USUAL SEA BREEZES
ANTICIPATED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE FOG AND STRATUS LOCALLY.
.MON...VFR.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN NIGHTTIME STRATUS
AND FOG. RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS TIME FRAME. INCREASING E-NE WINDS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND AN APPROACHING LOW TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY EAST TO NE WINDS COULD
AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF THESE
WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

AT THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME IS OF BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE. SO GIVEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW
LINGERING NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE
FLOW...IN THIS TIME FRAME...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN THE
WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY SEPTEMBER 28TH...

LOCATION.......RECORD/YEAR SET....FORECAST HIGH
NEWARK.............85/1954*..........85........
BRIDGEPORT.........81/1959...........79........
CENTRAL PARK.......88/1881...........84........
LAGUARDIA..........86/1943...........85........
JFK AIRPORT........82/1948...........81........
ISLIP..............78/2007*..........80........

* AND IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT











000
FXUS61 KOKX 280801 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY
RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO CROSS THE TRI-STATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOTE THAT KMMK IS DOWN TO 1/2 MILE IN FOG...WHILE THE FEW OTHER
LOCATIONS IN THE CWA REPORTING FOG ARE AT 6 MILES. DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SPREADING OF FOG IN 11-3.9 MICRON
CHANNEL...AND WITH ONLY ONE REPORT OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3
MILES...WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF EARLY MORNING FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS...AND ADDRESS WITH SPS IF
VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS BECOME MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THEY
CURRENTLY ARE.

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CENTERS ITSELF TO THE ESE OF THE AREA TODAY.
STILL WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALLOW FOR
MINIMAL...IF ANY CLOUD COVER TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - CONSISTENT WITH
A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. NEAR RECORD
TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A RESULT...SEE
THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE. FOR LOWS
TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WILL SEE CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS
WEAK/DISJOINTED 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
FOR NOW LOW LEVELS APPEAR WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND MIXED WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TOO 900 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE S OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER/LESS
BULLISH WITH THE FRONT THAN ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. SINCE THE ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER...USED BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF WITH 00Z
NAM/SREF/GFS/SREF TO DENOTE BACKDOOR FRONT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLD
-SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT - SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. FOR LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK 700-500
HPA SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING CLOSED 500 HPA LOW MOVING INTO NE PA/N NJ/SE NY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH LOW CLOUDS
AROUND...AND SOME MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME. SO CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH MEN/MEX/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS
USED WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED MID TO LEVEL
LOW TRACKS TO SE OF CAPE COD BY 12Z THURSDAY. THEY THEN DIVERGE
ABOUT WHERE IT MOVES FROM THERE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING IT TO THE
ESE...THE GFS THE SE...WHILE THE CMC DEVOLVES IT INTO A BROADER
CIRCULATION THAT EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATES TO OUR SE BY 00Z
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT POPS TO AT MOST SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE/OPEN THAN THE GFS WITH A 700-500 HPA
TROUGH - WITH A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS FROM THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE APPALACHIANS IN THE GFS AND
INTO THE NE U.S. IN THE ECMWF BY 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
SIMILAR IN OVER ALL IDEA AND DIFFER ONLY IN THE DETAILS...HAVE
OPTED FOR A BLEND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN
HAVING CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM GUIDANCE WITH 00Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT OR CALM WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK.

INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR VSBY TO DEVELOP...AND LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR
AT KSWF AROUND 08Z.

ANY FOG LIFTS AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...WITH USUAL SEA BREEZES
ANTICIPATED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE FOG AND STRATUS LOCALLY.
.MON...VFR.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN NIGHTTIME STRATUS
AND FOG. RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS TIME FRAME. INCREASING E-NE WINDS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND AN APPROACHING LOW TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY EAST TO NE WINDS COULD
AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF THESE
WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

AT THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME IS OF BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE. SO GIVEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW
LINGERING NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE
FLOW...IN THIS TIME FRAME...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN THE
WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY SEPTEMBER 28TH...

LOCATION.......RECORD/YEAR SET....FORECAST HIGH
NEWARK.............85/1954*..........85........
BRIDGEPORT.........81/1959...........79........
CENTRAL PARK.......88/1881...........84........
LAGUARDIA..........86/1943...........85........
JFK AIRPORT........82/1948...........81........
ISLIP..............78/2007*..........80........

* AND IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT












000
FXUS61 KOKX 280755
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
355 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY
RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO CROSS THE TRI-STATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOTE THAT KMMK IS DOWN TO 1/2 MILE IN FOG...WHILE THE FEW OTHER
LOCATIONS IN THE CWA REPORTING FOG ARE AT 6 MILES. DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SPREADING OF FOG IN 11-3.9 MICRON
CHANNEL...AND WITH ONLY ONE REPORT OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3
MILES...WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF EARLY MORNING FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS...AND ADDRESS WITH SPS IF
VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS BECOME MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THEY
CURRENTLY ARE.

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CENTERS ITSELF TO THE ESE OF THE AREA TODAY.
STILL WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALLOW FOR
MINIMAL...IF ANY CLOUD COVER TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - CONSISTENT WITH
A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. NEAR RECORD
TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A RESULT...SEE
THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE. FOR LOWS
TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WILL SEE CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS
WEAK/DISJOINTED 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
FOR NOW LOW LEVELS APPEAR WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND MIXED WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TOO 900 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE S OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER/LESS
BULLISH WITH THE FRONT THAN ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. SINCE THE ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER...USED BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF WITH 00Z
NAM/SREF/GFS/SREF TO DENOTE BACKDOOR FRONT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLD
-SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT - SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. FOR LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK 700-500
HPA SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING CLOSED 500 HPA LOW MOVING INTO NE PA/N NJ/SE NY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH LOW CLOUDS
AROUND...AND SOME MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME. SO CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH MEN/MEX/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS
USED WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED MID TO LEVEL
LOW TRACKS TO SE OF CAPE COD BY 12Z THURSDAY. THEY THEN DIVERGE
ABOUT WHERE IT MOVES FROM THERE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING IT TO THE
ESE...THE GFS THE SE...WHILE THE CMC DEVOLVES IT INTO A BROADER
CIRCULATION THAT EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATES TO OUR SE BY 00Z
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT POPS TO AT MOST SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE/OPEN THAN THE GFS WITH A 700-500 HPA
TROUGH - WITH A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS FROM THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE APPALACHIANS IN THE GFS AND
INTO THE NE U.S. IN THE ECMWF BY 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
SIMILAR IN OVER ALL IDEA AND DIFFER ONLY IN THE DETAILS...HAVE
OPTED FOR A BLEND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN
HAVING CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM GUIDANCE WITH 00Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT OR CALM WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK.

INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR VSBY TO DEVELOP...AND LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR
AT KSWF AROUND 08Z.

ANY FOG LIFTS AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...WITH USUAL SEA BREEZES
ANTICIPATED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE FOG AND STRATUS LOCALLY.
.MON...VFR.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN NIGHTTIME STRATUS
AND FOG. RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS TIME FRAME. INCREASING E-NE WINDS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND AN APPROACHING LOW TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY EAST TO NE WINDS COULD
AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF THESE
WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

AT THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST
IN THIS TIME FRAME IS OF BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...SO THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY SEPTEMBER 28TH...

LOCATION.......RECORD/YEAR SET....FORECAST HIGH
NEWARK.............85/1954*..........85........
BRIDGEPORT.........81/1959...........79........
CENTRAL PARK.......88/1881...........84........
LAGUARDIA..........86/1943...........85........
JFK AIRPORT........82/1948...........81........
ISLIP..............78/2007*..........80........

* AND IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT










000
FXUS61 KOKX 280755
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
355 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY
RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO CROSS THE TRI-STATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOTE THAT KMMK IS DOWN TO 1/2 MILE IN FOG...WHILE THE FEW OTHER
LOCATIONS IN THE CWA REPORTING FOG ARE AT 6 MILES. DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SPREADING OF FOG IN 11-3.9 MICRON
CHANNEL...AND WITH ONLY ONE REPORT OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3
MILES...WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF EARLY MORNING FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS...AND ADDRESS WITH SPS IF
VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS BECOME MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THEY
CURRENTLY ARE.

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CENTERS ITSELF TO THE ESE OF THE AREA TODAY.
STILL WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALLOW FOR
MINIMAL...IF ANY CLOUD COVER TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - CONSISTENT WITH
A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. NEAR RECORD
TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A RESULT...SEE
THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE. FOR LOWS
TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WILL SEE CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS
WEAK/DISJOINTED 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
FOR NOW LOW LEVELS APPEAR WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND MIXED WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TOO 900 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE S OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER/LESS
BULLISH WITH THE FRONT THAN ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. SINCE THE ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER...USED BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF WITH 00Z
NAM/SREF/GFS/SREF TO DENOTE BACKDOOR FRONT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLD
-SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT - SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. FOR LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK 700-500
HPA SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING CLOSED 500 HPA LOW MOVING INTO NE PA/N NJ/SE NY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH LOW CLOUDS
AROUND...AND SOME MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME. SO CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH MEN/MEX/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS
USED WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED MID TO LEVEL
LOW TRACKS TO SE OF CAPE COD BY 12Z THURSDAY. THEY THEN DIVERGE
ABOUT WHERE IT MOVES FROM THERE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING IT TO THE
ESE...THE GFS THE SE...WHILE THE CMC DEVOLVES IT INTO A BROADER
CIRCULATION THAT EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATES TO OUR SE BY 00Z
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT POPS TO AT MOST SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE/OPEN THAN THE GFS WITH A 700-500 HPA
TROUGH - WITH A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS FROM THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE APPALACHIANS IN THE GFS AND
INTO THE NE U.S. IN THE ECMWF BY 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
SIMILAR IN OVER ALL IDEA AND DIFFER ONLY IN THE DETAILS...HAVE
OPTED FOR A BLEND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN
HAVING CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM GUIDANCE WITH 00Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT OR CALM WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK.

INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR VSBY TO DEVELOP...AND LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR
AT KSWF AROUND 08Z.

ANY FOG LIFTS AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...WITH USUAL SEA BREEZES
ANTICIPATED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE FOG AND STRATUS LOCALLY.
.MON...VFR.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN NIGHTTIME STRATUS
AND FOG. RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS TIME FRAME. INCREASING E-NE WINDS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND AN APPROACHING LOW TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY EAST TO NE WINDS COULD
AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF THESE
WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

AT THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST
IN THIS TIME FRAME IS OF BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...SO THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY SEPTEMBER 28TH...

LOCATION.......RECORD/YEAR SET....FORECAST HIGH
NEWARK.............85/1954*..........85........
BRIDGEPORT.........81/1959...........79........
CENTRAL PARK.......88/1881...........84........
LAGUARDIA..........86/1943...........85........
JFK AIRPORT........82/1948...........81........
ISLIP..............78/2007*..........80........

* AND IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT









000
FXUS61 KOKX 280522
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
122 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY THEN OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH MOVES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN TRACK ACROSS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUIET WX OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DEW POINTS
ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED LAST NIGHT.

THE COMBO OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND
MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG MOST OUTLYING AREAS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY T/TD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DAY TIME TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND THE FORECAST DEVELOPMENT
OF AN INLAND AFTERNOON TROUGH...SEA BREEZES SUPERIMPOSED ON AN
INCREASING SW WIND FLOW MIGHT HOLD TEMPS A FEW DEGS LOWER THAN
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CT AND LONG ISLAND COASTS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOWER
80S...A SOLID 10 DEGREES PLUS ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AS MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LAYERS ADVECTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...THE LIKELIHOOD OF BOTH RADIATIONAL FOG
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 50S WELL
INLAND TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY ON MON WITH INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY.

THEREAFTER...THE H5 FLOW BEGINS TO DEVIATE...WITH THE ONLY
CONSISTENT THING ABOUT THE ECMWF IS ITS INCONSISTENCY. ITS 00Z RUN
LAST EVE MERGED THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM BRANCHES AND CLOSED
OFF THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A SFC LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND DUE TO DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING
IS VERY SLOW TO MOVE OUT PRODUCING A FEW INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z RUN STILL CLOSES THE NORTHERN BRANCH OFF
BUT THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
THEREFORE RESULTS IN A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM WITH NO SURFACE
REFLECTION. THE REMAINING GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CMC
WHICH IS ON ITS OWN KEEPING THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK...IS FAIRLY SIMILAR KEEPING THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SEPARATE WHICH KEEPS THE SIGNIFICANT
PCPN OFFSHORE.

SINCE THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS...HAVE
PRETTY MUCH MAINTAINED CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

THE OTHER UNCERTAIN FACTOR IS IF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE N MON NIGHT AND TUE MAKES IT THIS FAR S. TWO DAYS AGO SOLNS
POINTED TOWARDS YES...BUT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT BECOMES ALIGNED
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND DISSIPATES BEFORE MAKING IT TO SRN NEW
ENGLAND.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT DUE TO ALL
THE UNCERTAINTY PRIOR TO THIS...THERE IS EVEN LESS CONFIDENCE IN
ITS TIMING.

TEMPS AFTER MON WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT OR CALM WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK.

INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR VSBY TO DEVELOP...AND LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR
AT KSWF AROUND 08Z.

ANY FOG LIFTS AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...WITH USUAL SEA BREEZES
ANTICIPATED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE FOG AND STRATUS LOCALLY.
.MON...VFR.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN NIGHTTIME STRATUS
AND FOG. RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS TIME FRAME. INCREASING E-NE WINDS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND AN APPROACHING LOW TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT
LOW PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING ON TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY ELY WINDS
COULD AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF
THESE WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER...KEEPING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...WHILE IMPACTS CURRENTLY LOOK MINIMAL
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY
SINCE RECENT STORMS HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE EVENT
DREW CLOSER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/24
NEAR TERM...GC/PW
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/24/PW
HYDROLOGY...GC/24










000
FXUS61 KOKX 280522
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
122 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY THEN OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH MOVES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN TRACK ACROSS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUIET WX OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DEW POINTS
ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED LAST NIGHT.

THE COMBO OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND
MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG MOST OUTLYING AREAS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY T/TD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DAY TIME TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND THE FORECAST DEVELOPMENT
OF AN INLAND AFTERNOON TROUGH...SEA BREEZES SUPERIMPOSED ON AN
INCREASING SW WIND FLOW MIGHT HOLD TEMPS A FEW DEGS LOWER THAN
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CT AND LONG ISLAND COASTS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOWER
80S...A SOLID 10 DEGREES PLUS ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AS MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LAYERS ADVECTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...THE LIKELIHOOD OF BOTH RADIATIONAL FOG
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 50S WELL
INLAND TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY ON MON WITH INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY.

THEREAFTER...THE H5 FLOW BEGINS TO DEVIATE...WITH THE ONLY
CONSISTENT THING ABOUT THE ECMWF IS ITS INCONSISTENCY. ITS 00Z RUN
LAST EVE MERGED THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM BRANCHES AND CLOSED
OFF THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A SFC LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND DUE TO DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING
IS VERY SLOW TO MOVE OUT PRODUCING A FEW INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z RUN STILL CLOSES THE NORTHERN BRANCH OFF
BUT THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
THEREFORE RESULTS IN A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM WITH NO SURFACE
REFLECTION. THE REMAINING GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CMC
WHICH IS ON ITS OWN KEEPING THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK...IS FAIRLY SIMILAR KEEPING THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SEPARATE WHICH KEEPS THE SIGNIFICANT
PCPN OFFSHORE.

SINCE THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS...HAVE
PRETTY MUCH MAINTAINED CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

THE OTHER UNCERTAIN FACTOR IS IF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE N MON NIGHT AND TUE MAKES IT THIS FAR S. TWO DAYS AGO SOLNS
POINTED TOWARDS YES...BUT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT BECOMES ALIGNED
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND DISSIPATES BEFORE MAKING IT TO SRN NEW
ENGLAND.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT DUE TO ALL
THE UNCERTAINTY PRIOR TO THIS...THERE IS EVEN LESS CONFIDENCE IN
ITS TIMING.

TEMPS AFTER MON WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT OR CALM WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK.

INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR VSBY TO DEVELOP...AND LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR
AT KSWF AROUND 08Z.

ANY FOG LIFTS AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...WITH USUAL SEA BREEZES
ANTICIPATED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE FOG AND STRATUS LOCALLY.
.MON...VFR.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN NIGHTTIME STRATUS
AND FOG. RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS TIME FRAME. INCREASING E-NE WINDS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND AN APPROACHING LOW TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT
LOW PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING ON TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY ELY WINDS
COULD AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF
THESE WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER...KEEPING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...WHILE IMPACTS CURRENTLY LOOK MINIMAL
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY
SINCE RECENT STORMS HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE EVENT
DREW CLOSER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/24
NEAR TERM...GC/PW
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/24/PW
HYDROLOGY...GC/24









000
FXUS61 KOKX 280222
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1022 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WX OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DEW POINTS
ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED LAST NIGHT.

THE COMBO OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND
MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG MOST OUTLYING AREAS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY T/TD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DAY TIME TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND THE FORECAST DEVELOPMENT
OF AN INLAND AFTERNOON TROUGH...SEA BREEZES SUPERIMPOSED ON AN
INCREASING SW WIND FLOW MIGHT HOLD TEMPS A FEW DEGS LOWER THAN
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CT AND LONG ISLAND COASTS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOWER
80S...A SOLID 10 DEGREES PLUS ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AS MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LAYERS ADVECTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...THE LIKELIHOOD OF BOTH RADIATIONAL FOG
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 50S WELL
INLAND TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY ON MON WITH INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY.

THEREAFTER...THE H5 FLOW BEGINS TO DEVIATE...WITH THE ONLY
CONSISTENT THING ABOUT THE ECMWF IS ITS INCONSISTENCY. ITS 00Z RUN
LAST EVE MERGED THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM BRANCHES AND CLOSED
OFF THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A SFC LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND DUE TO DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING
IS VERY SLOW TO MOVE OUT PRODUCING A FEW INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z RUN STILL CLOSES THE NORTHERN BRANCH OFF
BUT THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
THEREFORE RESULTS IN A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM WITH NO SURFACE
REFLECTION. THE REMAINING GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CMC
WHICH IS ON ITS OWN KEEPING THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK...IS FAIRLY SIMILAR KEEPING THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SEPARATE WHICH KEEPS THE SIGNIFICANT
PCPN OFFSHORE.

SINCE THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS...HAVE
PRETTY MUCH MAINTAINED CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

THE OTHER UNCERTAIN FACTOR IS IF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE N MON NIGHT AND TUE MAKES IT THIS FAR S. TWO DAYS AGO SOLNS
POINTED TOWARDS YES...BUT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT BECOMES ALIGNED
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND DISSIPATES BEFORE MAKING IT TO SRN NEW
ENGLAND.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT DUE TO ALL
THE UNCERTAINTY PRIOR TO THIS...THERE IS EVEN LESS CONFIDENCE IN
ITS TIMING.

TEMPS AFTER MON WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE TONIGHT A GOOD NIGHT FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO. EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR VSBY TO
DEVELOP...AND LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR AT KSWF AROUND 08Z.

ANY FOG LIFTS SUNDAY...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...WITH USUAL SEA BREEZES ANTICIPATED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE FOG AND STRATUS LOCALLY.
.MON...VFR.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN NIGHTTIME STRATUS
AND FOG. RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS TIME FRAME. INCREASING E-NE WINDS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND AN APPROACHING LOW TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT
LOW PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING ON TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY ELY WINDS
COULD AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF
THESE WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER...KEEPING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...WHILE IMPACTS CURRENTLY LOOK MINIMAL
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY
SINCE RECENT STORMS HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE EVENT
DREW CLOSER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/24
NEAR TERM...GC/PW
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GC/24/PW
HYDROLOGY...GC/24









000
FXUS61 KOKX 280222
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1022 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WX OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DEW POINTS
ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED LAST NIGHT.

THE COMBO OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND
MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG MOST OUTLYING AREAS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY T/TD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DAY TIME TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND THE FORECAST DEVELOPMENT
OF AN INLAND AFTERNOON TROUGH...SEA BREEZES SUPERIMPOSED ON AN
INCREASING SW WIND FLOW MIGHT HOLD TEMPS A FEW DEGS LOWER THAN
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CT AND LONG ISLAND COASTS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOWER
80S...A SOLID 10 DEGREES PLUS ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AS MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LAYERS ADVECTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...THE LIKELIHOOD OF BOTH RADIATIONAL FOG
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 50S WELL
INLAND TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY ON MON WITH INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY.

THEREAFTER...THE H5 FLOW BEGINS TO DEVIATE...WITH THE ONLY
CONSISTENT THING ABOUT THE ECMWF IS ITS INCONSISTENCY. ITS 00Z RUN
LAST EVE MERGED THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM BRANCHES AND CLOSED
OFF THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A SFC LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND DUE TO DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING
IS VERY SLOW TO MOVE OUT PRODUCING A FEW INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z RUN STILL CLOSES THE NORTHERN BRANCH OFF
BUT THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
THEREFORE RESULTS IN A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM WITH NO SURFACE
REFLECTION. THE REMAINING GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CMC
WHICH IS ON ITS OWN KEEPING THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK...IS FAIRLY SIMILAR KEEPING THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SEPARATE WHICH KEEPS THE SIGNIFICANT
PCPN OFFSHORE.

SINCE THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS...HAVE
PRETTY MUCH MAINTAINED CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

THE OTHER UNCERTAIN FACTOR IS IF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE N MON NIGHT AND TUE MAKES IT THIS FAR S. TWO DAYS AGO SOLNS
POINTED TOWARDS YES...BUT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT BECOMES ALIGNED
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND DISSIPATES BEFORE MAKING IT TO SRN NEW
ENGLAND.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT DUE TO ALL
THE UNCERTAINTY PRIOR TO THIS...THERE IS EVEN LESS CONFIDENCE IN
ITS TIMING.

TEMPS AFTER MON WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE TONIGHT A GOOD NIGHT FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO. EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR VSBY TO
DEVELOP...AND LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR AT KSWF AROUND 08Z.

ANY FOG LIFTS SUNDAY...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...WITH USUAL SEA BREEZES ANTICIPATED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE FOG AND STRATUS LOCALLY.
.MON...VFR.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN NIGHTTIME STRATUS
AND FOG. RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS TIME FRAME. INCREASING E-NE WINDS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND AN APPROACHING LOW TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT
LOW PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING ON TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY ELY WINDS
COULD AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF
THESE WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER...KEEPING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...WHILE IMPACTS CURRENTLY LOOK MINIMAL
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY
SINCE RECENT STORMS HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE EVENT
DREW CLOSER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/24
NEAR TERM...GC/PW
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GC/24/PW
HYDROLOGY...GC/24








000
FXUS61 KOKX 272347
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
747 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WX TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
RADIATIONAL FOG. FORECAST IS ON TRACK..ALTHOUGH DID ADD PATCHY FOG
TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY T/TD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DAY TIME TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND THE FORECAST DEVELOPMENT
OF AN INLAND AFTERNOON TROUGH...SEA BREEZES SUPERIMPOSED ON AN
INCREASING SW WIND FLOW MIGHT HOLD TEMPS A FEW DEGS LOWER THAN
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CT AND LONG ISLAND COASTS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOWER
80S...A SOLID 10 DEGREES PLUS ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AS MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LAYERS ADVECTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...THE LIKELIHOOD OF BOTH RADIATIONAL FOG
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 50S WELL
INLAND TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY ON MON WITH INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY.

THEREAFTER...THE H5 FLOW BEGINS TO DEVIATE...WITH THE ONLY
CONSISTENT THING ABOUT THE ECMWF IS ITS INCONSISTENCY. ITS 00Z RUN
LAST EVE MERGED THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM BRANCHES AND CLOSED
OFF THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A SFC LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND DUE TO DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING
IS VERY SLOW TO MOVE OUT PRODUCING A FEW INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z RUN STILL CLOSES THE NORTHERN BRANCH OFF
BUT THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
THEREFORE RESULTS IN A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM WITH NO SURFACE
REFLECTION. THE REMAINING GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CMC
WHICH IS ON ITS OWN KEEPING THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK...IS FAIRLY SIMILAR KEEPING THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SEPARATE WHICH KEEPS THE SIGNIFICANT
PCPN OFFSHORE.

SINCE THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS...HAVE
PRETTY MUCH MAINTAINED CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

THE OTHER UNCERTAIN FACTOR IS IF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE N MON NIGHT AND TUE MAKES IT THIS FAR S. TWO DAYS AGO SOLNS
POINTED TOWARDS YES...BUT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT BECOMES ALIGNED
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND DISSIPATES BEFORE MAKING IT TO SRN NEW
ENGLAND.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT DUE TO ALL
THE UNCERTAINTY PRIOR TO THIS...THERE IS EVEN LESS CONFIDENCE IN
ITS TIMING.

TEMPS AFTER MON WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE TONIGHT A GOOD NIGHT FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO. EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR VSBY TO
DEVELOP...AND LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR AT KSWF AROUND 08Z.

ANY FOG LIFTS SUNDAY...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...WITH USUAL SEA BREEZES ANTICIPATED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE FOG AND STRATUS LOCALLY.
.MON...VFR.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN NIGHTTIME STRATUS
AND FOG. RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS TIME FRAME. INCREASING E-NE WINDS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND AN APPROACHING LOW TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT
LOW PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING ON TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY ELY WINDS
COULD AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF
THESE WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER...KEEPING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...WHILE IMPACTS CURRENTLY LOOK MINIMAL
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY
SINCE RECENT STORMS HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE EVENT
DREW CLOSER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KOKX 272010
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
410 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNDER FULL SUN WITH LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES HAVEN RISEN INTO
THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE
CT COAST AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND MID 80S IN METRO NJ.

LIGHT SEA BREEZES CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CT COAST AND ARE
DEVELOPING AT CONEY ISLAND IN BROOKLYN. LIGHT SEA BREEZES WILL
CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SHORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DAY TIME TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE FOR LATE TONIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND THE FORECAST
DEVELOPMENT OF AN INLAND AFTERNOON TROUGH...SEA BREEZES
SUPERIMPOSED ON AN INCREASING SW WIND FLOW MIGHT HOLD TEMPS A FEW
DEGS LOWER THAN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CT AND LONG
ISLAND COASTS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO
THE LOWER 80S...A SOLID 10 DEGREES PLUS ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AS MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LAYERS ADVECTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...THE LIKELIHOOD OF BOTH RADIATIONAL FOG
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 50S WELL
INLAND TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY ON MON WITH INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY.

THEREAFTER...THE H5 FLOW BEGINS TO DEVIATE...WITH THE ONLY
CONSISTENT THING ABOUT THE ECMWF IS ITS INCONSISTENCY. ITS 00Z RUN
LAST EVE MERGED THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM BRANCHES AND CLOSED
OFF THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A SFC LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND DUE TO DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING
IS VERY SLOW TO MOVE OUT PRODUCING A FEW INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z RUN STILL CLOSES THE NORTHERN BRANCH OFF
BUT THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
THEREFORE RESULTS IN A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM WITH NO SURFACE
REFLECTION. THE REMAINING GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CMC
WHICH IS ON ITS OWN KEEPING THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK...IS FAIRLY SIMILAR KEEPING THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SEPARATE WHICH KEEPS THE SIGNIFICANT
PCPN OFFSHORE.

SINCE THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS...HAVE
PRETTY MUCH MAINTAINED CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

THE OTHER UNCERTAIN FACTOR IS IF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE N MON NIGHT AND TUE MAKES IT THIS FAR S. TWO DAYS AGO SOLNS
POINTED TOWARDS YES...BUT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT BECOMES ALIGNED
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND DISSIPATES BEFORE MAKING IT TO SRN NEW
ENGLAND.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT DUE TO ALL
THE UNCERTAINTY PRIOR TO THIS...THERE IS EVEN LESS CONFIDENCE IN
ITS TIMING.

TEMPS AFTER MON WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS
UNDER 10KT THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN CALM/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SEA
BREEZES AS OF 20Z ARE THROUGH KJFK/KGON/KBDR. STILL EXPECT IT TO
COME THROUGH OTHER TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF KSWF BY 23Z.

INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE TONIGHT A GOOD NIGHT FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO. EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR VSBY TO
DEVELOP...AND LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR AT KSWF/KGON AROUND 08Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MON NIGHT...VFR.
.TUE-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS LIKELY IN RAIN. INCREASING E-NE
WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND AN APPROACHING LOW TO
THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT
LOW PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING ON TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY ELY WINDS
COULD AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF
THESE WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER...KEEPING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...WHILE IMPACT CURRENTLY LOOK MINIMAL
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY
SINCE RECENT STORMS HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE EVENT
DREW CLOSER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/24
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...GC/24
HYDROLOGY...GC/24









000
FXUS61 KOKX 272010
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
410 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNDER FULL SUN WITH LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES HAVEN RISEN INTO
THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE
CT COAST AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND MID 80S IN METRO NJ.

LIGHT SEA BREEZES CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CT COAST AND ARE
DEVELOPING AT CONEY ISLAND IN BROOKLYN. LIGHT SEA BREEZES WILL
CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SHORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DAY TIME TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE FOR LATE TONIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND THE FORECAST
DEVELOPMENT OF AN INLAND AFTERNOON TROUGH...SEA BREEZES
SUPERIMPOSED ON AN INCREASING SW WIND FLOW MIGHT HOLD TEMPS A FEW
DEGS LOWER THAN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CT AND LONG
ISLAND COASTS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO
THE LOWER 80S...A SOLID 10 DEGREES PLUS ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AS MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LAYERS ADVECTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...THE LIKELIHOOD OF BOTH RADIATIONAL FOG
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 50S WELL
INLAND TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY ON MON WITH INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY.

THEREAFTER...THE H5 FLOW BEGINS TO DEVIATE...WITH THE ONLY
CONSISTENT THING ABOUT THE ECMWF IS ITS INCONSISTENCY. ITS 00Z RUN
LAST EVE MERGED THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM BRANCHES AND CLOSED
OFF THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A SFC LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND DUE TO DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING
IS VERY SLOW TO MOVE OUT PRODUCING A FEW INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z RUN STILL CLOSES THE NORTHERN BRANCH OFF
BUT THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
THEREFORE RESULTS IN A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM WITH NO SURFACE
REFLECTION. THE REMAINING GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CMC
WHICH IS ON ITS OWN KEEPING THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK...IS FAIRLY SIMILAR KEEPING THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SEPARATE WHICH KEEPS THE SIGNIFICANT
PCPN OFFSHORE.

SINCE THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS...HAVE
PRETTY MUCH MAINTAINED CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

THE OTHER UNCERTAIN FACTOR IS IF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE N MON NIGHT AND TUE MAKES IT THIS FAR S. TWO DAYS AGO SOLNS
POINTED TOWARDS YES...BUT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT BECOMES ALIGNED
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND DISSIPATES BEFORE MAKING IT TO SRN NEW
ENGLAND.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT DUE TO ALL
THE UNCERTAINTY PRIOR TO THIS...THERE IS EVEN LESS CONFIDENCE IN
ITS TIMING.

TEMPS AFTER MON WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS
UNDER 10KT THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN CALM/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SEA
BREEZES AS OF 20Z ARE THROUGH KJFK/KGON/KBDR. STILL EXPECT IT TO
COME THROUGH OTHER TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF KSWF BY 23Z.

INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE TONIGHT A GOOD NIGHT FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO. EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR VSBY TO
DEVELOP...AND LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR AT KSWF/KGON AROUND 08Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MON NIGHT...VFR.
.TUE-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS LIKELY IN RAIN. INCREASING E-NE
WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND AN APPROACHING LOW TO
THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT
LOW PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING ON TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY ELY WINDS
COULD AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF
THESE WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER...KEEPING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...WHILE IMPACT CURRENTLY LOOK MINIMAL
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY
SINCE RECENT STORMS HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE EVENT
DREW CLOSER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/24
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...GC/24
HYDROLOGY...GC/24










000
FXUS61 KOKX 271816
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
216 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNDER FULL SUN WITH LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES HAVEN RISEN INTO
THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE
CT COAST AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND MID 80S AT LINDEN NJ.

LIGHT SEA BREEZES CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CT COAST AND ARE
DEVELOPING AT CONEY ISLAND IN BROOKLYN. LIGHT SEA BREEZES WILL
CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SHORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DAY TIME TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE FOR LATE TONIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND THE FORECAST
DEVELOPMENT OF AN INLAND AFTERNOON TROUGH...SEA BREEZES
SUPERIMPOSED ON AN INCREASING SW WIND FLOW MIGHT HOLD TEMPS A FEW
DEGS LOWER THAN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CT AND LONG
ISLAND COASTS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO
THE LOWER 80S...A SOLID 10 DEGREES PLUS ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AS MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LAYERS ADVECTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...THE LIKELIHOOD OF BOTH RADIATIONAL FOG
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 50S WELL
INLAND TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS MARKED WITH ABOVE NORMAL UNCERTAINTY AS MODELS
STRUGGLE TO DEAL WITH THE INTERACTION OF A CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY
OVER IOWA...AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT REACHES/IS
APPROACHING LAKE SUPERIOR BY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND MOST SHEARED WITH THE CUTOFF LOW - HOWEVER ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...THE ECMWF AND TO SOME DEGREE THE CMC SUGGEST LESS
SHEARING AND MORE INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE...RESULTING IN A CLOSED LOW-MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING AND
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SYSTEM
THEN SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST AS IT STAYS S OF LONG ISLAND INTO
FRIDAY.

GIVEN THAT THE GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER...HAVE FAVORED A BLEND
OF ECMWF/GEFS/CMC TUESDAY-FRIDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY..THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM
NW TO SE INTO FRIDAY AS THE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST.

THE SCENARIO BEARS WATCHING NOT ONLY FOR POTENTIALLY BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE REGION...BUT WITH A FAIRLY STRONG
HIGH FORECAST TO BUILD TO OUR NORTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED E-NE FLOW OVER THE REGION...WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT THE COAST. FOR NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO BEGIN TO SPECIFY WHAT THESE COASTAL HAZARDS MIGHT
BE...IF THEY DO INDEED MATERIALIZE.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND LOWS
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEARD TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
THEN SHIFT JUST TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. DO NOT EXPECT GUSTS UP TO
15 KT AS WAS THE CASE JUST BEFORE TAF ISSUANCE. SUSTAINED WINDS
SHOULD STAY UNDER 10 KT...WITH LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT TODAY...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...AND SW FLOW
BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY. TIMING OF SEA BREEZES SHOULD
BE FAIRLY CLOSE...WITHIN PLUS OR MINUS AN HR OF ONSET.

INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL MAKE TONIGHT A GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO. EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR VSBY TO DEVELOP
THERE...AND LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR AT KSWF/KGON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MON NIGHT...VFR.
.TUE-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS LIKELY IN RAIN. INCREASING E-NE
WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND AN APPROACHING LOW TO
THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY N-NE WINDS COULD AVERAGE
15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF THESE WINDS
DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 5-7 FT. THESE SEAS WOULD BE 2-4
FT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
SPECIFY AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...GC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT









000
FXUS61 KOKX 271816
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
216 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNDER FULL SUN WITH LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES HAVEN RISEN INTO
THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE
CT COAST AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND MID 80S AT LINDEN NJ.

LIGHT SEA BREEZES CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CT COAST AND ARE
DEVELOPING AT CONEY ISLAND IN BROOKLYN. LIGHT SEA BREEZES WILL
CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SHORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DAY TIME TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE FOR LATE TONIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND THE FORECAST
DEVELOPMENT OF AN INLAND AFTERNOON TROUGH...SEA BREEZES
SUPERIMPOSED ON AN INCREASING SW WIND FLOW MIGHT HOLD TEMPS A FEW
DEGS LOWER THAN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CT AND LONG
ISLAND COASTS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO
THE LOWER 80S...A SOLID 10 DEGREES PLUS ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AS MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LAYERS ADVECTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...THE LIKELIHOOD OF BOTH RADIATIONAL FOG
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 50S WELL
INLAND TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS MARKED WITH ABOVE NORMAL UNCERTAINTY AS MODELS
STRUGGLE TO DEAL WITH THE INTERACTION OF A CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY
OVER IOWA...AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT REACHES/IS
APPROACHING LAKE SUPERIOR BY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND MOST SHEARED WITH THE CUTOFF LOW - HOWEVER ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...THE ECMWF AND TO SOME DEGREE THE CMC SUGGEST LESS
SHEARING AND MORE INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE...RESULTING IN A CLOSED LOW-MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING AND
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SYSTEM
THEN SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST AS IT STAYS S OF LONG ISLAND INTO
FRIDAY.

GIVEN THAT THE GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER...HAVE FAVORED A BLEND
OF ECMWF/GEFS/CMC TUESDAY-FRIDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY..THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM
NW TO SE INTO FRIDAY AS THE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST.

THE SCENARIO BEARS WATCHING NOT ONLY FOR POTENTIALLY BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE REGION...BUT WITH A FAIRLY STRONG
HIGH FORECAST TO BUILD TO OUR NORTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED E-NE FLOW OVER THE REGION...WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT THE COAST. FOR NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO BEGIN TO SPECIFY WHAT THESE COASTAL HAZARDS MIGHT
BE...IF THEY DO INDEED MATERIALIZE.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND LOWS
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEARD TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
THEN SHIFT JUST TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. DO NOT EXPECT GUSTS UP TO
15 KT AS WAS THE CASE JUST BEFORE TAF ISSUANCE. SUSTAINED WINDS
SHOULD STAY UNDER 10 KT...WITH LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT TODAY...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...AND SW FLOW
BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY. TIMING OF SEA BREEZES SHOULD
BE FAIRLY CLOSE...WITHIN PLUS OR MINUS AN HR OF ONSET.

INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL MAKE TONIGHT A GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO. EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR VSBY TO DEVELOP
THERE...AND LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR AT KSWF/KGON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MON NIGHT...VFR.
.TUE-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS LIKELY IN RAIN. INCREASING E-NE
WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND AN APPROACHING LOW TO
THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY N-NE WINDS COULD AVERAGE
15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF THESE WINDS
DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 5-7 FT. THESE SEAS WOULD BE 2-4
FT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
SPECIFY AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...GC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT










000
FXUS61 KOKX 271452
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1052 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES
TO THE EAST THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A COASTAL LOW STAYS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE IN THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM TRENDS.

N WINDS WERE INCREASED TO NEAR 10 MPH UNTIL AROUND 1 PM BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING TO THE SE AS WEAK LIGHT SEA BREEZES OF LESS THAN 10 MPH DEVELOP
BY 5 PM.

TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY BASED ON THEIR CURRENT RATE OF
RISE UNDER FULL SUN AND THE LATEST 12Z OKX SOUNDING. HIGH TEMPS OF
80-85 DEGREES ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A SOLID 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL
STILL HAVE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH IT TO KEEP THINGS DRY
WITH LITTLE...IF ANY...CLOUD COVER. WINDS ALSO WILL BE LIGHT AS A
RESULT...SO SHOULD HAVE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT.
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AT NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS AS A RESULT - OTHERWISE
USED A MAV/MET BLEND THEN SUBTRACTED A DEGREE TO WEIGHT TOWARDS
COLDER GUIDANCE. EVEN WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS WILL
STILL RUN FROM AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

REGION REMAINS ON BACKSIDE OF A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE...THAT BECOMES
CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY. WITH NO SHORTWAVES
FORECAST TO COME UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY...HAVE
GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY-MONDAY. A STRENGTHENING SW LOW-MID
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING IN ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH A MIX
DOWN FROM 950 TO 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THOSE
TODAY. USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE...AND SUBTRACTED A
DEGREE TO WEIGHT TOWARD COLDER GUIDANCE...FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT.
VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR HIGHS
MONDAY...A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS AGAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD TRIGGER
SOME MAINLY ISOLD -SHRA...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. USED A BLEND OF
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH VALUES AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS MARKED WITH ABOVE NORMAL UNCERTAINTY AS MODELS
STRUGGLE TO DEAL WITH THE INTERACTION OF A CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY
OVER IOWA...AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT REACHES/IS
APPROACHING LAKE SUPERIOR BY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND MOST SHEARED WITH THE CUTOFF LOW - HOWEVER ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...THE ECMWF AND TO SOME DEGREE THE CMC SUGGEST LESS
SHEARING AND MORE INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE...RESULTING IN A CLOSED LOW-MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING AND
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SYSTEM
THEN SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST AS IT STAYS S OF LONG ISLAND INTO
FRIDAY.

GIVEN THAT THE GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER...HAVE FAVORED A BLEND
OF ECMWF/GEFS/CMC TUESDAY-FRIDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY..THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM
NW TO SE INTO FRIDAY AS THE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST.

THE SCENARIO BEARS WATCHING NOT ONLY FOR POTENTIALLY BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE REGION...BUT WITH A FAIRLY STRONG
HIGH FORECAST TO BUILD TO OUR NORTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED E-NE FLOW OVER THE REGION...WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT THE COAST. FOR NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO BEGIN TO SPECIFY WHAT THESE COASTAL HAZARDS MIGHT
BE...IF THEY DO INDEED MATERIALIZE.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND LOWS
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH SKC.

N OR NNE WINDS 5-10 KT SHOULD CONTINUE...VEERING MORE NE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER
18Z...BUT COULD DEVELOP AS LATE AS 22Z.

VRB WINDS 4 KT OR LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SUNDAY-MON NIGHT...VFR.
.TUE-WED...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY N-NE WINDS COULD AVERAGE
15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF THESE WINDS
DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 5-7 FT. THESE SEAS WOULD BE 2-4
FT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
SPECIFY AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...GC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT










000
FXUS61 KOKX 271452
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1052 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES
TO THE EAST THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A COASTAL LOW STAYS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE IN THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM TRENDS.

N WINDS WERE INCREASED TO NEAR 10 MPH UNTIL AROUND 1 PM BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING TO THE SE AS WEAK LIGHT SEA BREEZES OF LESS THAN 10 MPH DEVELOP
BY 5 PM.

TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY BASED ON THEIR CURRENT RATE OF
RISE UNDER FULL SUN AND THE LATEST 12Z OKX SOUNDING. HIGH TEMPS OF
80-85 DEGREES ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A SOLID 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL
STILL HAVE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH IT TO KEEP THINGS DRY
WITH LITTLE...IF ANY...CLOUD COVER. WINDS ALSO WILL BE LIGHT AS A
RESULT...SO SHOULD HAVE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT.
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AT NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS AS A RESULT - OTHERWISE
USED A MAV/MET BLEND THEN SUBTRACTED A DEGREE TO WEIGHT TOWARDS
COLDER GUIDANCE. EVEN WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS WILL
STILL RUN FROM AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

REGION REMAINS ON BACKSIDE OF A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE...THAT BECOMES
CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY. WITH NO SHORTWAVES
FORECAST TO COME UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY...HAVE
GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY-MONDAY. A STRENGTHENING SW LOW-MID
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING IN ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH A MIX
DOWN FROM 950 TO 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THOSE
TODAY. USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE...AND SUBTRACTED A
DEGREE TO WEIGHT TOWARD COLDER GUIDANCE...FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT.
VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR HIGHS
MONDAY...A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS AGAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD TRIGGER
SOME MAINLY ISOLD -SHRA...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. USED A BLEND OF
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH VALUES AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS MARKED WITH ABOVE NORMAL UNCERTAINTY AS MODELS
STRUGGLE TO DEAL WITH THE INTERACTION OF A CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY
OVER IOWA...AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT REACHES/IS
APPROACHING LAKE SUPERIOR BY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND MOST SHEARED WITH THE CUTOFF LOW - HOWEVER ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...THE ECMWF AND TO SOME DEGREE THE CMC SUGGEST LESS
SHEARING AND MORE INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE...RESULTING IN A CLOSED LOW-MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING AND
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SYSTEM
THEN SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST AS IT STAYS S OF LONG ISLAND INTO
FRIDAY.

GIVEN THAT THE GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER...HAVE FAVORED A BLEND
OF ECMWF/GEFS/CMC TUESDAY-FRIDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY..THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM
NW TO SE INTO FRIDAY AS THE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST.

THE SCENARIO BEARS WATCHING NOT ONLY FOR POTENTIALLY BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE REGION...BUT WITH A FAIRLY STRONG
HIGH FORECAST TO BUILD TO OUR NORTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED E-NE FLOW OVER THE REGION...WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT THE COAST. FOR NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO BEGIN TO SPECIFY WHAT THESE COASTAL HAZARDS MIGHT
BE...IF THEY DO INDEED MATERIALIZE.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND LOWS
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH SKC.

N OR NNE WINDS 5-10 KT SHOULD CONTINUE...VEERING MORE NE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER
18Z...BUT COULD DEVELOP AS LATE AS 22Z.

VRB WINDS 4 KT OR LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SUNDAY-MON NIGHT...VFR.
.TUE-WED...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY N-NE WINDS COULD AVERAGE
15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF THESE WINDS
DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 5-7 FT. THESE SEAS WOULD BE 2-4
FT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
SPECIFY AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...GC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT









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